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Why Did the ECMWF Forecast Joaquin So Well?

By: Bob Henson 8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2015

The post-mortems have begun on how well Hurricane Joaquin was predicted, and one of the key themes is why the flagship global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) beat NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to the punch in forecasting that Joaquin would remain well offshore. On Wednesday, September 30, less than six days from a potential landfall, the ECMWF operational model was consistently keeping Joaquin offshore, even as the GFS and nearly all other models were bringing the hurricane into the U.S. East Coast. From late Wednesday into Thursday, the GFS and other models began to shift toward an offshore track for Joaquin, as the hurricane itself was still diving southwestward into the Bahamas. By Friday, there was virtually unanimous model agreement on the offshore track that proved accurate.


Figure 1. Satellite image of atmospheric water vapor, collected at 1915Z (3:15 pm EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015. By this point, models agreed that Hurricane Joaquin would be moving out to sea, even though it was located unnervingly close to the southeast United States and moisture from Joaquin was already flowing onto the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The National Hurricane Center did an admirable job of threading the needle in its public forecasts. NHC’s “cone of uncertainty” gradually edged toward the U.S. coast during the middle of last week. On Wednesday, the midpoint of the cone reached the mid-Atlantic coast, and the center’s forecast discussions acknowledged that they were splitting the difference between the insistently offshore ECMWF and other model guidance. The cone then began shifting back eastward on Thursday--but again, quite gradually, since the NHC works to avoid back-and-forth, “windshield-wiper” swings in projected track that could exacerbate public confusion. (One limit to the cone as currently designed is that the width of the cone is based on average track errors in recent years, rather than the actual uncertainty for a given hurricane, so in a case like Joaquin one wouldn’t have realized from a glance at the cone that the leading models differed so starkly.)


Figure 2. Official forecast track and cones of uncertainty issued by the National Hurricane Center at (left to right) 5 am and 5 pm EDT Wednesday, September 30, and 5 am and 5 pm EDT Thursday, October 1. Image credit: NHC.

It will take in-depth analysis to fully understand why the ECMWF was the first of the leading operational models to consistently keep Joaquin offshore. In 2012, the ECMWF model gained fame for correctly leading the pack in the opposite direction, as it was the first to call for Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy to hook into the New Jersey coast rather than remaining offshore. The fact that the ECMWF caught on to Sandy’s future ahead of the GFS model gained wide attention, and last week’s repeat victory for the ECMWF hasn’t escaped notice. On Friday, the New York Times published a summary of the computational, staffing, and design challenges that have hindered U.S. medium-range modeling efforts as compared to Europe’s.

Before jumping to conclusions...

Here are a few important things to keep in mind when contemplating the Battle of the Models:

--The GFS and ECMWF are both used to predict a vast array of weather events. These models have to be robust and durable in handling all kinds of atmospheric conditions in all seasons. Hurricane forecasting is an important task, but not their sole focus. Other models have been developed specifically for hurricane prediction, such as the hurricane-oriented version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) and the NOAA Geophysical and Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model. In 2014, HWRF led all other individual models in 2- and 3-day track forecasts (see Figure 3). For track guidance beyond 3 days, forecasters tend to put the most weight on the GFS and ECMWF, along with the UK Met Office model (UKMET).


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2014, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that blends together up to five of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth). Data taken from the National Hurricane Center 2014 verification report.


--Individual high-profile events like Sandy and Joaquin can obscure the big picture. As Jeff Masters reported last week (scroll article to “Which track model should you trust?”, the ECMWF and GFS were virtually tied as the best-performing models for hurricane tracking when averaged over the period 2011-2014. As a guiding rule, the best forecasts emerge from a consensus that include a wide variety of models, rather than by going solely with the ECMWF or any other single model. This is why the NHC track forecasts lean heavily toward multi-model consensus, as was the case last week. Official NHC track predictions are often very close to the output from a model blend called TVCA, which employs the five models mentioned above (ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF). See our roundup post from August on recent improvements to the GFS and ECMWF as well as other leading models used for hurricane prediction.

--Overall the GFS and ECMWF are both very capable, sophisticated global models, and both are continually being revised and improved. Multiyear analyses tend to give the ECMWF a slight edge in overall performance across the range of weather features predicted. On average, the GFS lags the ECMWF model by about half a day in predicting upper-level weather features (i.e. centers of high and low pressure at the 500-millibar level, about 4 miles high). That margin has remained more or less constant over the last decade as both models have improved. The GFS now predicts 500-mb features out to 8 days with the same level of skill as 5-day forecasts of the 1980s. “Both models are world class models. I think that often gets lost in the crossfire,” said Marshall Shepherd in a Forbes essay published on Friday.


Figure 4. The number of days of useful skill produced by various models beyond 6 days (top lines) and 8 days (bottom lines) in predicting the height of the 500-millibar surface, which translates into the location of the upper-level highs and lows that shape surface weather. In recent years, the ECMWF has provided about 14.5 days of measurable skill, while the GFS has provided about 14 days. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Environmental Modeling Center, from “Improvements in Forecast Skill of the NCEP Production Suite,” Glenn White et al., presented in June 2015 at the 27th AMS Conference on Weather Anlysis and Forecasting.


--The ECMWF was created by 18 European nations in the 1970s with a very specific mission: “to pool Europe's meteorological resources to produce accurate climate data and medium-range forecasts.” A typical definition of “medium-range” is the period from 3 to 7 days, although ECMWF now produces a variety of forecast products out to 10 days and beyond. NOAA, in contrast, issues a much larger variety of forecasts and other products for a larger, more diverse customer base. The short-term High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is one example of a recent NOAA innovation that falls outside the bailiwick of ECMWF. NOAA’s huge array of responsibilities limits the amount of resources it can devote to global forecast systems like the GFS, especially in an era with relentless pressure on U.S. science budgets. In the aftermath of Sandy, NOAA did receive supplemental funding that allowed for major progress, including a doubling of GFS horizontal resolution, implemented in January 2015, and a tenfold increase in supercomputing capacity being implemented this year. At the same time, ECMWF continues to upgrade its own models and computing resources, so the race continues.

One current weakness in the GFS relative to the ECMWF, noted in the New York Times article, is its technique for data assimilation (bringing as many observations as possible into the starting point of a model run). ECMWF employs a four-dimensional data assimilation technique, while the GFS uses a 3D technique. The fourth dimension is time: the 4D system allows data from satellites and other sensors to be woven into a model run over multiple time steps, rather than being injected into the model at a single time step. In this and several other ways, including the ability to draw on a wider range of observations, the ECMWF data assimilation appears to give it the edge. A 4D data assimilation system is now being developed for the GFS, perhaps to be incorporated within the next year.

Did cumulus clouds make the difference in Joaquin’s track forecasts?
Looking back at Hurricane Sandy, some interesting research led by Nicholas Bassill (University at Albany, State University of New York) points to one explanation for the ECMWF’s triumph with that storm: the way in which the model depicted (or parameterized) cumulus clouds that were too small to be modeled directly. Bassill found that when the WRF-ARW model was run using the ECMWF’s cumulus parameterization technique, it performed similarly to the ECMWF in bringing Sandy onshore. However, when the WRF-ARW was run with the GFS cumulus parameterization, it kept Sandy offshore (see Figure 5).

The GFS parameterizations have undergone some upgrades since 2012, and we can’t immediately tell for sure if this difference in cumulus treatment mattered in the case of Joaquin. Bassill does think that large-scale latent heat release within cumulus clouds (the energy released when water vapor condenses to form cloud droplets and raindrops) probably altered the evolution of important features upstream of the upper-level trough northeast of Joaquin that helped steer it away from shore. Also, he told me, “perhaps the ECMWF was better at assimilating satellite winds in the area to better capture this feature. You'd need further study to definitively say.”

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Results from nine 7-day forecasts extending from 1200 GMT October 23 to October 30, 2012, showing the variety of solutions for Hurricane Sandy that were obtained in research mode by running the same model (WRF-ARW) nine times. The only difference between each run is the method used for cumulus parameterization (handling the cumulus clouds that are too small to be directly simulated within the model). The parameterization techniques used for the NAM and GFS models led to an offshore track, whereas the technique used in the ECMWF model brought Sandy onto the northeast U.S. coast. Image credit: Nick Bassill.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I was told by my insurance agent, who is also a close friend, that if my neighbors tree falls on my house that it falls under MY insurance with ME covering the deductible. This is Allstate in MS. I'd read your policy very closely.
Thanks for the Update Bob, great insight into the models!
thanks.
Fascinating read, sir. Joaquin still maintains a superb structure and will likely maintain it all the way to Europe. He'll definitely be Post Trop by then, but this has been quite the system that we had no business expecting from a strong El Niño year.
Thanks bob
Thanks Dr Henson.
I'm not sure if it's good if we know more about the GFS/Euro failings versus WU's tech failings. :/

Lobby Congress (err, I mean TWC) for more money to bolster this site.
Thanx for the Posting - very informative
I'm in, will catch up later, gotten run some errands for a bit!
there it is
on the local front........under a tornado warning as we speak.....3" hail is falling just south of the border and heading our way...might need to bug out in a few minutes
Yay it works!
Models improving
Bob thanks a lot for the information , Two Thumbs Up for WU team and the Jeff Master's blog!!
I think the Ecmwf is still best tropical model when it the outline of all model it caused for concern that it have good chance of end up being right I taught this second beating that Euro gave the Gfs cause for some concern why does euro seem to be good of sniffing out track way before the gfs and other models at times


I think the Ecmwf is still best tropical model when it the outline of all model it caused for concern that it have good chance of end up being right I taught this second beating that Euro gave the Gfs cause for some concern why does euro seem to be good of sniffing out track way before the gfs and other models at times


Finally. :)
under a tornado watch as we speak....up to three inch hail has fallen in the east section of the city.....should just pass east of our home.....thought about bugging out for a bit but thanx to WU radar we can tell we're fine here
Death toll up to 16 in the Carolinas, and take a guess how the vast majority of them died?

Answer: drip drop, vroom vroom, blip bloop
Remarkable how well Joaquin has held it's core together including an eye even while it's going extratropical.
I know the GFS hasn't been great this year, but they have been very consistent on a robust system forming the the NW Carrib. Thursday next week, then having it form into a hurricane and impacting FL, could be something to watch.
Ten failed dams in South Carolina. When water came into many areas, it came in really fast.
Quoting 22. BayFog:

Remarkable how well Joaquin has held it's core together including an eye even while it's going extratropical.


Indeed. It might even be a STC for a short time before going truly Extratropical.

I'm just curious to see what he will do in the UK

Quoting 2. Sandcat:

I was told by my insurance agent, who is also a close friend, that if my neighbors tree falls on my house that it falls under MY insurance with ME covering the deductible. This is Allstate in MS. I'd read your policy very closely.
. I live in N Fl and had Statefarm ins. Three years ago during a storm my neighbors tree fell onto our house and my homeowner ins was responsible. They took care of everything and were later reimbersed for the entire claim by her insurance company.
until joaquin maybe because the systems been weak and feeble but the models have stunk it up
Western Caribbean is where it's at if it's going to happen. Shear is the big question going into next week. Long way out, have to see what conditions bring. That development area has always been bad for Florida in October. Maybe, but I bet shear will play a heavy hand again in some way shape or form. Certainly have a feeling the season's not yet quite done.
Quoting 23. Camerooski:

I know the GFS hasn't been great this year, but they have been very consistent on a robust system forming the the NW Carrib. Thursday next week, then having it form into a hurricane and impacting FL, could be something to watch.
Quoting 23. Camerooski:

I know the GFS hasn't been great this year, but they have been very consistent on a robust system forming the the NW Carrib. Thursday next week, then having it form into a hurricane and impacting FL, could be something to watch.
Cam, if you keep talking like that, the blog will break again. :-) The GFS has been robustly forecasting ghost storms all season. The one that's 384 hours keeps moving out to 384 hours with each run. Maybe something will happen, maybe not, but there isn't anything there to watch except electrons.
Never mind, still broken...
Whoops.. Bob Henson. Need to do a Crest toothpaste commercial .. Check out those pearly whites. Hello when we going to see DR. Robert Henson.. U deserve it my friend. Ok.. Models ??!!??!?!... However being a south fl weather expert I must say the time is RIPE.. For GOM western Carib up swing.
Quoting 26. Loduck:

. I live in N Fl and had Statefarm ins. Three years ago during a storm my neighbors tree fell onto our house and my homeowner ins was responsible. They took care of everything and were later reimbersed for the entire claim by her insurance company.


It may have been a different branch.


much cooler water temp in blue because of the hurricane
Quoting 443. nash36:



Here's an idea on how to avoid such tragedy in the future.... Ready??

DON'T GET UNDERWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF A FRIGGIN CAT 4 HURRICANE!!!! There is no need to analyze squat!! The captain is a dumbass for putting himself AND his crew in such peril!

The "I think we can make it" attitude will continue to get people killed. Sorry for the harshness. Just sick and tired of stupidity.


Rather Well said though, albeit bluntly, nonetheless, I would truly like to underscore the veracity in your statement and to emphasize the critical logic there-in to always err on the side of caution, and to NOT EVER Be overly presumptuous of our Meagre technological and mechanical capabilities especially when stark in the Face of the full Fury of Mother Nature!

Blessings to All!
Quoting 443. nash36:



Here's an idea on how to avoid such tragedy in the future.... Ready??

DON'T GET UNDERWAY IN THE MIDDLE OF A FRIGGIN CAT 4 HURRICANE!!!! There is no need to analyze squat!! The captain is a dumbass for putting himself AND his crew in such peril!

The "I think we can make it" attitude will continue to get people killed. Sorry for the harshness. Just sick and tired of stupidity.


Rather Well said though, albeit bluntly, nonetheless, I would truly like to underscore the veracity in your statement and to emphasize the critical logic there-in to always err on the side of caution, and to NOT EVER Be overly presumptuous of our Meagre technological and mechanical capabilities especially when stark in the Face of the full Fury of Mother Nature!

Blessings to All!
I saw Bassill talk in UAlbany last week just as the models were beginning to shift. Its incredible how quickly they were able to analyze some of the key features causing error in the models
Pop Quiz time! The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is located on what University campus?

Hmm...let me see TA, Astrometeor, MAweatherboy, Drakoen, Levi, and basically anyone currently in college or university cannot answer this question.
Quoting 39. hurricanes2018:


Hey Jason you watching the Yankees game tonight?
Impressive:





This one is only 336 hours out!!

Quoting 39. hurricanes2018:


still looks powerful
Does it work now?
No, apparently not...
A tanker can handle that type of weather, but any boat that is not under power is more susceptible to the ocean and loses it's ability to maneuver which is what happened. Once in the the water the crew was at the mercy of the gods, and to survive for such a long period of time in that type of hostile environment. Majority of our wolds commerce is delivered by ship and to think that in the Pacific this year there were not tankers that were in the similar weather is unreasonable. The only difference is their engines worked allowing them to survive.

Even the most seasoned mariners would of suffered in such a tragic event.
48. MZT
Quoting 25. FunnelVortex:

I'm just curious to see what he will do in the UK

It's not too unusual for dying storms to clip the north end of Scotland, but the current NHC cone is very lateral across the north Atlantic ... Joaquin could pass south of Ireland and make a direct hit.
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pop Quiz time! The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is located on what University campus?

Hmm...let me see TA, Astrometeor, MAweatherboy, Drakoen, Levi, and basically anyone currently in college or university cannot answer this question.
It's in Princeton...New Joissy. :-)

Does this thing work now? Will it make my skin appear to be younger?
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pop Quiz time! The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is located on what University campus?

Hmm...let me see TA, Astrometeor, MAweatherboy, Drakoen, Levi, and basically anyone currently in college or university cannot answer this question.


Princeton
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!


I bet that's from the remnants of Ida...
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!


I'm telling my family to prepare.
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pop Quiz time! The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is located on what University campus?

Hmm...let me see TA, Astrometeor, MAweatherboy, Drakoen, Levi, and basically anyone currently in college or university cannot answer this question.


Whyever not? Anyone with google can answer that question. ;)
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!




We are all DOOM!!!!!!!!!1!1AUGH
Quoting 2. Sandcat:

I was told by my insurance agent, who is also a close friend, that if my neighbors tree falls on my house that it falls under MY insurance with ME covering the deductible. This is Allstate in MS. I'd read your policy very closely.
I think it depends on who heard it fall..
Princeton-Forrestal Campus

Forrestal Campus, a major University facility for research and instruction, was established in 1951 on a 825-acre tract on U.S. Route 1, about three miles from the central campus. It was named for the first United States Secretary of Defense, James Forrestal '15, who, while secretary of the navy, had initiated government support of fundamental research in science and engineering.
Quoting 54. SherwoodSpirit:



We are all DOOM!!!!!!!!!1!1AUGH


Wilma part 2
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!




Wouldnt that be something lol. A Sandy Sized Major Hurricane.
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!


Wilma 2.0
Quoting 52. Gearsts:

I'm telling my family to prepare.


Looks familiar somehow.
Quoting 51. avthunder:

I bet that's from the remnants of Ida...
It's Ida, returned from the dead!!!

The actual time I'm posting this is 7:47 pm CDT. I don't know if I need to include the date yet.

Hellooooo...testing....testing...
Quoting 28. DeepSeaRising:

Western Caribbean is where it's at if it's going to happen. Shear is the big question going into next week. Long way out, have to see what conditions bring. That development area has always been bad for Florida in October. Maybe, but I bet shear will play a heavy hand again in some way shape or form. Certainly have a feeling the season's not yet quite done.

Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pop Quiz time! The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is located on what University campus?

Hmm...let me see TA, Astrometeor, MAweatherboy, Drakoen, Levi, and basically anyone currently in college or university cannot answer this question.
Penn State.
Quoting 52. Gearsts:

I'm telling my family to prepare.



Quoting 56. beell:

Princeton-Forrestal Campus

Forrestal Campus, a major University facility for research and instruction, was established in 1951 on a 825-acre tract on U.S. Route 1, about three miles from the central campus. It was named for the first United States Secretary of Defense, James Forrestal '15, who, while secretary of the navy, had initiated government support of fundamental research in science and engineering.
Same namesake as the USS Forrestal. I bet Sar didn't know that one.
Quoting 64. Grothar:





Lots and lots of models showing a strong storm forming in W Carrib, and its that time of year for these systems to pull a Wilma and turn towards FL, could be interesting...
Quoting 60. Grothar:



Looks familiar somehow.

Quoting 64. Grothar:







Holy moly. Imagine the amazing and terrifying stuff the Atlantic would be turning out regularly if this year wasn't characterized by a strong El Niño.
Also WU needs to sort this website out... Extremely glitchy and buggy...
Quoting 63. BahaHurican:

Penn State.
Well, I guessed without using Google first .... I was only one state over .... :o)
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!



Love the sarcasm with forecasts this far out, usually have someone saying it WILL happen... clean blog tonight :)
Quoting 63. BahaHurican:

Penn State.


I used to work there as a junior programmer. It's about three miles east of Princeton NJ on the Forrestall campus.
Quoting 40. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pop Quiz time! The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is located on what University campus?

Hmm...let me see TA, Astrometeor, MAweatherboy, Drakoen, Levi, and basically anyone currently in college or university cannot answer this question.
But Grothar can..")
Quoting 66. Camerooski:

Lots and lots of models showing a strong storm forming in W Carrib, and its that time of year for these systems to pull a Wilma and turn towards FL, could be interesting...







Which models are the "lots and lots" models? Even the Magic 8 Ball says "Don't hold your breath". :-)

Does this thing work yet?
Quoting 69. Camerooski:

Also WU needs to sort this website out... Extremely glitchy and buggy...
What??? No Way!!!! Works like a charm....
Quoting 66. Camerooski:
Lots and lots of models showing a strong storm forming in W Carrib, and its that time of year for these systems to pull a Wilma and turn towards FL, could be interesting...
Bless his heart...
Quoting 68. LostTomorrows:



Holy moly. Imagine the amazing and terrifying stuff the Atlantic would be turning out regularly if this year wasn't characterized by a strong El Niño.


I had to get the blog going somehow.
Great blog! Thanks!
Quoting 75. sar2401:

What??? No Way!!!! Works like a charm....
Quoting 76. aquak9:

Bless his heart...
ugh....
That wave behind it looks like a decepticon.
Quoting 71. RavensFan:


Love the sarcasm with forecasts this far out, usually have someone saying it WILL happen... clean blog tonight :)
Yeah I don't believe a storm will form in the N.W caribbean.To much shear in that area this year.I wasn't to surprised about JQ bombing out because it had been warned since June that the Bahamas area would need to be watched because that is where some of the lowest shear this season has been along with some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic and a storm finally took advantage of it unfortunately and went all the way.I'll believe it when I actually see a well established hurricane in that area with my own eyes.
Not saying it's going to happen, but can you imagine? Wilma is almost ten years to the day on that date.
Quoting 68. LostTomorrows:



Holy moly. Imagine the amazing and terrifying stuff the Atlantic would be turning out regularly if this year wasn't characterized by a strong El Niño.
Can we improve the GFS? I'm not sure...
Quoting 79. Tornado6042008X:


Now, those are model tracks we don't see every day. I'm certainly hoping the people in British Columbia are keeping a very close eye on this while rushing preparations to completion.
Oho is looking nice this evening.

We're 14 ACE units away from the all-time record of 104 set back in 1994. Will we make it? Tune in next time on the next episode of CPAC Gone Wild!

Nice
18Z GFS 500 mb vort.
384 hr loop...literally...

Quoting 89. beell:

Nice
18Z GFS 500 mb vort.
384 hr loop...literally...


Is it a cut off low if it rejoins the westerlies? (These things keep me awake at night.)
91. OCF
Quoting 89. beell:

Nice
18Z GFS 500 mb vort.
384 hr loop...literally...

So the cold-core storm we had in SoCal over the weekend (all of .02 inches in Long Beach on Sunday) makes a complete circle to the south and comes back at us for a second go, wetter than ever? Cool.
Quoting 61. sar2401:

It's Ida, returned from the dead!!!

The actual time I'm posting this is 7:47 pm CDT. I don't know if I need to include the date yet.

Hellooooo...testing....testing...

Thank you for your patience. WU will now resume its 24 hr coverage, 'The World According to Sar.'
Quoting 77. BaltimoreBrian:

Hey it all balances out!

11 trillion gallons of water fell in the Carolinas in the past week

NASA Analysis: 11 Trillion Gallons to Replenish California Drought Losses

39.984 km3 either way.
Now that the blog is so quiet someone can figure out how to tranfer that water!
The best feature of this site is the ability to block posts from wish casters. So glad that feature work flawlesly

Quoting 69. Camerooski:

Also WU needs to sort this website out... Extremely glitchy and buggy...
Are you really using a 14 day model to predict another Wilma? Surely you time would be more efective doing homework or read a book.
Quoting 66. Camerooski:

Lots and lots of models showing a strong storm forming in W Carrib, and its that time of year for these systems to pull a Wilma and turn towards FL, could be interesting...
What we have here is a suspicion of a tropical system moving NE out of the Yucatan area.. Time will tell.
Cooldown coming soon for the Central and Northern US.

Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oho is looking nice this evening.

We're 14 ACE units away from the all-time record of 104 set back in 1994. Will we make it? Tune in next time on the next episode of CPAC Gone Wild!



Looks like Oho briefly had an ojo.
Quoting 89. beell:

Nice
18Z GFS 500 mb vort.
384 hr loop...literally...


I'm getting vertigo...
Now the ECMWF is back to sending Joaquin to Iberia. Britain, Iberia, Britain, Iberia. Must be some very close calls in crunching the teraflops. Or are they already doing petaflops?
So, redwagon, I haven't forgotten. Any chance Joaquin's going to get caught up in that easterly flow and head back to the good ol' US of A?
Quoting 101. BayFog:

Now the ECMWF is back to sending Joaquin to Iberia. Britain, Iberia, Britain, Iberia. Must be some very close calls in crunching the teraflops. Or are they already doing petaflops?
I vote for Portugal to get flattened this round. England will just have to wait for the next petaflop.
Quoting 101. BayFog:

Now the ECMWF is back to sending Joaquin to Iberia. Britain, Iberia, Britain, Iberia. Must be some very close calls in crunching the teraflops. Or are they already doing petaflops?
According to the ECMWF page they are at 3.593 petaflops at peak.

You can also see the ECMWF computers on the top 500 site that ranks the fastest computers in the world--they are #38 and #39 on the list. Top500.org is updated in June and November.
Quoting 93. unknowncomic:

Now that the blog is so quiet someone can figure out how to tranfer that water!
TUNNELS!!!
Quoting 94. TruthComish:

The best feature of this site is the ability to block posts from wish casters. So glad that feature work flawlesly

Amen to that. 73 names on mine since Danny. Your response in #94 is to the person sitting in the pole position.


Ojo a OHO... Quiting Hawaii


No tiene Ojo OHO?
Quoting 104. BaltimoreBrian:

According to the ECMWF page they are at 3.593 petaflops at peak.

You can also see the ECMWF computers on the top 500 site that ranks the fastest computers in the world--they are #38 and #39 on the list. Top500.org is updated in June and November.


You are a plethora of information, BB...
According to this chart, the projection is now much further south and its coming to Portugal.
should be interesting!

It's late, but ... Go 'Stros!

Quoting 91. OCF:


So the cold-core storm we had in SoCal over the weekend (all of .02 inches in Long Beach on Sunday) makes a complete circle to the south and comes back at us for a second go, wetter than ever? Cool.


Courtesy of the Texas death ridge that just won't quit. It's gonna boom-a-rang the low right back to CA!
Quoting 113. PlazaRed:

According to this chart, the projection is now much further south and its coming to Portugal.
should be interesting!



Good morning everyone. Plaza, ECMWF showed something like this since yesterday morning, and even earlier, for days already, it has tended towards a very southern track. GFS, after favouring the system going north (recurving before or over the British Isles) quite a long time, started to cave in yesterday and has Joaquin now riding down the coast of Portugal.

Euro 00z: landfall in northern Portugal.



Approaching ...
Quoting 115. SubtropicalHi:



Courtesy of the Texas death ridge that just won't quit. It's gonna boom-a-rang the low right back to CA!
There were areas of extreme drought north of Houston on a recent drought monitor map. There is only one classification worse, exceptional drought.
Wakey wakies, Barbamz!
Hi, babbit. Wakey? Guess I'll better prepare for my hibernation with quite cold temps in the forecast for Germany next week, lol.

Opposite in Australia:

Australia bushfires
BBC weather video, 6 October 2015 Last updated at 17:44
A number of bushfires are burning across Australia after record breaking temperatures roasted parts of the country. BBC Weather's Peter Gibbs has the details.

Mujigae update:
Death toll from China typhoon rises to 19 - Xinhua
Source: Reuters - Wed, 7 Oct 2015 02:45 GMT

Guatemala update:
Guatemala landslide death toll rises to 186
By Marilia Brocchetto, CNN, Updated 0617 GMT (1317 HKT) October 7, 2015
Still many more missing :-(

Update on the French flash floods
Severe weather in Alpes-Maritimes: a couple of Germans found safe and sound, two still missing
Atlantico.fr, Oct 7, 2015
Three days after the terrible storms that have battered the South East of France, the provisional toll remains Wednesday to twenty dead and two missing. Rail traffic is still disrupted and 1800 homes still without electricity. Tuesday, life slowly resumed its rights to Mandelieu-la-Napoule, Cannes, Antibes or Biot, stricken cities of Alpes-Maritimes. However traces of floods, among the most deadly in recent years in France, were still very present. ...

Have to go. Nice day everyone ...
Good morning everyone! Hope you guys have a good day!
Quoting 105. aquak9:

TUNNELS!!!
At the time of the OP, I was thinking Musk's Hyperloop.
Quoting 94. TruthComish:

The best feature of this site is the ability to block posts from wish casters. So glad that feature work flawlesly




Hey you can also block a member, make a distasteful comment about that member, and then unblock the member. Found that out a few days ago as i was the blocked member. But I pick my fights and some arent worth my time. Had nothing to do with wishcasting BTW. More to do with i simply disagreed.
Quoting 123. tampabaymatt:




Some nice rain for west Texas. Doesn't Ricderr live there?
Will there be any late-season storms form in the Atlantic Basin in 2015?

In an "average" year, the Atlantic basin produces 2 October named storms.

We are currently in a strong El-Nino year, with lots of wind shear. Not favorable for storm formation.

However, we did get 10 named storms form before the end of September 2015, including powerful Hurricane Joaquin.

Will there be a "Kate" or "Larry" form .. before November 30th?

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was also an El Nino year, and just when we thought it was all over ... in November .... Hurricane Ida became a CAT2 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Not saying that scenario will happen this year. But, we can "Never say never" ... when it comes to the tropics.

We have already surpassed some of the earlier 2015 predictions in total number of Atlantic named storms!

great article, dr. masters. Both models are pretty great for what they can do. And remember folks, they're tools.

also too yada yada all models are wrong, but are often useful yada yada. you all know how the quip goes.
Taking the Arctic route: migrants cycle from Russia to Norway
Euronews, 07/10 00:08 CET
From the end of this video-article: Between August and October, 2015, the number of migrants arriving in Storskog has almost doubled every week. With winter approaching, it remains to be seen how feasible it will be to travel this 'Arctic route.'

Ideed, temps last night in northern Skandinavia already fell to -12C = 10F.

And here something beautiful (from Norway as well):

From BBC, Oct 7, 2015
GFS has shown it for a few days now too Gro............................................... .......
never blocked a character. every character has something to provide. it was 991 yesterday now its 993 993mb and the system has not even moved through the bahamas yet
better not mess with my americana music festival in north florida looks okay so far
Morning. I see SC is projected to get a half inch of rain this week. While not Terrible. It might slow the reatreat floodwaters down for those areas recieving more than that. Hopefully it doesn't pan out then!
Is anything in the long run for development as we approach the second peak of the hurricane season?
Quoting 129. Grothar:




Well isn't that cute... is that an independent model of the main ones we use?
NHC again yesterday backing the GFS tracking Joaquin into Ireland and yet again the NHC has had to make a major shift in the track with a landfall now in Spain. When is the NHC just going to stop this already. Obviously the GFS is having serious issues lately!

Quoting 113. PlazaRed:

According to this chart, the projection is now much further south and its coming to Portugal.
should be interesting!




Euro had that track the whole time and the NHC was trusting the GFS and yet again busted and had to switch toward the Euro overnight.
Quoting 125. Bucsboltsfan:



Some nice rain for west Texas. Doesn't Ricderr live there?


El-Paso area has been getting drilled lately. They were on our news yesterday evening here in Orlando as they were showing a hailstorm that shut down the interstate eastside of El-Paso.
Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:

NHC again yesterday backing the GFS tracking Joaquin into Ireland and yet again the NHC has had to make a major shift in the track with a landfall now in Spain. When is the NHC just going to stop this already. Obviously the GFS is having serious issues lately!




The GFS has had serious issues for the last few years now. Like you said the other day, not only has it been way off the mark with hurricane forecasting, but it's missing entire weather patterns in the US.
91 keeps ticking and slowly moving west. the windwards could sure use its rain.
Quoting 133. ElConando:

Morning. I see SC is projected to get a half inch of rain this week. While not Terrible. It might slow the reatreat floodwaters down for those areas recieving more than that. Hopefully it doesn't pan out then!
May not increase floodwaters, but it makes is more difficult to dry things out (that car with a leaky window etc)
Quoting 141. tampabaymatt:



The GFS has had serious issues for the last few years now. Like you said the other day, not only has it been way off the mark with hurricane forecasting, but it's missing entire weather patterns in the US.


IMO the GFS seems worse after the upgrade. Ryan Maue from Weatherbell had this tweet a few days ago in regards to the GFS.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue Oct 3
It's not just Joaquin, something really has gone haywire w/GFS. Significant recent drop-off in skill
z500 NH 5-days
Wonder if ricderr was ducting for cover yesterday. Seems he's in the storm zone lately.

NWS El Paso@NWSElPaso 15h15 hours ago
331pm: Hail covering I-10 near Horizon. #ElPaso. Photo courtesy TxDOT.
Quoting 97. unknowncomic:

Cooldown coming soon for the Central and Northern US.




What about us down south? I'm ready for a good cold bit of weather (with NO humidity!!!!). So far we've only gotten to the 60s, and with the insane humidity it doesn't feel super good. Even dry 60s would be better than wet 60s.
Overall the models did pretty poorly with Joaquin. This comparision doesn't include ECMWF or one of my favs GEOS-5, but it does look directly at how the models did on Jaoquin. Through the years of looking at this on a storm basis, it's become apparent that usually the model that gets a storm early on does better with it through the life of the storm than the rest. Joaquin was no exception.. At 72hrs in, I pointed out the models were over all doing really poorly with Joaquin and that our leader at getting it kind of right was a version of the Ukmet, the EGRR. Here is the model error (in nautical miles) for our better models for Joaquin. The top two are versions of the Ukmet followed by a Tropical Cyclone model of the Navy's.. These were the only models to keep their 72hr error less than 200 nautical miles, of those compared. The rest can be found in text format here.

Model..0hr 24h... 48hr. 72hr..96hr .120hr
EGRR 13.3 40.7 89.2 161.0 305.5 515.5
EGRI 0 54.5 102.8 195.4 345.4 568.7
COTC 16.4 53.5 115.8 193.2 307.4 516.1

Another model that may deserve a little recognition here is the RYOC. Though short term it wasn't so great, 6 and 7 days out it did good. RYOC is a blend of forecaster chosen models & can include any models.
RYOC 0 93.2 237.9 412.5 637.6 945.5 191.0 150.2

UKMET overall outperformed humans on this storm, which is a rare feat. Here is the Official Forecast error to compare.
OFCL 0.3 48.8 122.5 243.7 387.1 509.9 - -

Here is the Average position Error for most the models graphed. Credit: TropicalAtlantic.com

October update on the NMME has a 2.5C peak for this El-Nino. Should surpass 1997.

Best message ever from Charleston County Schools yesterday {sarcasm flag on}......

CCSD's schools and offices will open on Wednesday, October 7, 2015 and will resume normal hours.This includes extracurricular, athletic, and after-school programs and events.

It is important to know that some school bus routes are still affected by flooding in areas of the county, and as a result, parents will need to make alternate transportation arrangements if possible for their children.The listing of impacted (CLOSED) routes will be disseminated this afternoon and will be redistributed as necessary with any changes. (please check back here)

now, at least 20 routes were cancelled...and if the buses cannot get thru, what makes them think cars can? And if the students can't all get there, then what makes them think the teachers all can? My area isn't as bad as some just 3 miles from me...but buses go for dozens of miles...

I feel bad for the kids that cannot get there...they will fall behind... some rivers here haven't even peaked yet...smh...
Quoting 144. StormTrackerScott:



IMO the GFS seems worse after the upgrade. Ryan Maue from Weatherbell had this tweet a few days ago in regards to the GFS.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue Oct 3
It's not just Joaquin, something really has gone haywire w/GFS. Significant recent drop-off in skill
z500 NH 5-days


Watching model error by the storm basis this year, I agree...Here was the GFS error on Jaoquin for the various versions of the GFS..

Model 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr
AEMI 0 66.4 158.7 316.1 510.5 644.9
AEMN 16.9 59.6 135.9 265.0 466.9 584.7
AP01 19.0 73.2 147.5 281.6 490.9 700.9
AP02 19.5 68.0 157.5 272.6 481.2 568.5
AP03 16.2 65.3 153.2 307.6 473.7 643.1
AP04 24.4 74.0 153.5 312.2 530.4 741.2
AP05 17.6 66.3 129.3 238.6 454.4 637.9
AP06 22.1 71.0 150.6 283.9 435.3 619.3
AP07 20.5 76.3 160.8 340.5 626.1 789.2
AP08 20.1 72.8 150.8 261.0 539.8 773.9
AP09 22.1 70.7 144.0 266.6 459.2 655.6
AP10 22.2 72.8 147.1 255.6 478.1 622.8
AP11 19.7 68.8 157.6 249.9 369.8 538.6
AP12 20.1 72.3 160.3 272.6 444.3 635.6
AP13 21.0 73.9 157.2 312.5 556.9 773.4
AP14 19.2 76.2 144.5 268.9 501.8 694.6
AP15 19.6 67.6 137.9 261.8 439.7 592.1
AP16 21.5 67.8 147.7 297.3 467.4 586.9
AP17 18.3 71.9 156.6 243.9 454.6 631.6
AP18 22.2 76.7 149.9 265.2 505.6 707.9
AP19 16.6 68.0 138.6 240.9 388.5 581.3
AP20 19.2 69.5 152.3 235.9 354.6 490.3
AVNI 0 62.9 149.1 309.4 473.0 653.5
AVNO 12.6 54.8 120.8 237.5 384.2 543.7
Sad thing is that we should be pouring money into these models with more supercomputing power and fine tuning them. Just imagine if a sliver of our defense budget was allocated for this. It is sad that it took Sandy to even get additional funding for it. The supercomputer for our forecasting systems should be in the top 10 in computing power, but alas. I am hoping that the new system will correct some of these errors we have been seeing lately.

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2878025/noaa s-next-supercomputer-will-be-a-cray-ibm-hybrid-sys tem.html

Or maybe not:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weat her-gang/wp/2013/06/25/new-weather-service-superco mputer-faces-chaos/
Just got a chance to read Mr. Henson's excellent Blog on the model performance issues. In terms of the NHC, the statement below is the best summary of their process and consensus approach. The NHC five day cones do not verify ultimate land-fall wise often, from beginning to end, and we fully expect for NHC to tweak their projections as a storm gets closer to threatening a populated region as better info from recon and changing large scale synoptic factor change. You are correct that NHC cannot jump on every short term model trend and shift the cone rapidly every 12 hours; particularly the 5 day cones. As I always note, the 3-Day Cone (which gives you plenty of time to watch and/or prepare) is the more accurate (compared to the 5-day) and what you should hang your hat on even as it is tweaked up until landfall:


The cone then began shifting back eastward on Thursday--but again, quite gradually, since the NHC works to avoid back-and-forth, “windshield-wiper” swings in projected track that could exacerbate public confusion.
Quoting 43. Grothar:

This one is only 336 hours out!!


"I know it's 14 days out, but something to keep an eye on". "Could be interesting".
154. FOREX
Quoting 151. Michfan:

Sad thing is that we should be pouring money into these models with more supercomputing power and fine tuning them. Just imagine if a sliver of our defense budget was allocated for this. It is sad that it took Sandy to even get additional funding for it. The supercomputer for our forecasting systems should be in the top 10 in computing power, but alas. I am hoping that the new system will correct some of these errors we have been seeing lately.

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2878025/noaa s-next-supercomputer-will-be-a-cray-ibm-hybrid-sys tem.html

Or maybe not:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weat her-gang/wp/2013/06/25/new-weather-service-superco mputer-faces-chaos/
Our military is already at historic lows. Maybe we can take money from welfare program to fund the models.
Quoting 149. tiggeriffic:

Best message ever from Charleston County Schools yesterday {sarcasm flag on}......

CCSD's schools and offices will open on Wednesday, October 7, 2015 and will resume normal hours.This includes extracurricular, athletic, and after-school programs and events.

It is important to know that some school bus routes are still affected by flooding in areas of the county, and as a result, parents will need to make alternate transportation arrangements if possible for their children.The listing of impacted (CLOSED) routes will be disseminated this afternoon and will be redistributed as necessary with any changes. (please check back here)

now, at least 20 routes were cancelled...and if the buses cannot get thru, what makes them think cars can? And if the students can't all get there, then what makes them think the teachers all can? My area isn't as bad as some just 3 miles from me...but buses go for dozens of miles...

I feel bad for the kids that cannot get there...they will fall behind... some rivers here haven't even peaked yet...smh...

Can I hear an Amen! What the heck. I am glad I am not the only one having trouble with this one. And they are still cancelling routes this morning. Incredible.
Quoting 154. FOREX:

Our military is already at historic lows. Maybe we can take money from welfare program to fund the models.


Our military is bloated despite its funding levels. The problem is there is too much bureaucracy in the money machine that runs the military. We have too much of the things we don't need and too little of the things we do. They have their priorities screwed up. This coming from someone who has seen it firsthand during my 16 years in the Army. We waste money like it is no one's business. Either way NOAA should be receiving better funding. Whether it be from entitlement programs or the DOD. I say the DOD because DOD has an interest in the GFS running properly for national security interests and could help fund it.
157. vis0
A VID showing 2015 Joaquin's "life" cycle till it passed Bermuda in IR imagery is at my zilly pg.3 cmmnt#142.

If i had "written" this Dr. Masters blog i'd title it "Why Did the ECMWF Forecast Joaquin's path better than the rest, though it was %@#$! as to its strength?" ...had 20 words as to  Joaquin ...40,000 on the ml-d...3 jokes and 40,001 grammar errors ...oh yeah and and 2 readers.

Lives were lost due to the incorrect forecast.

 NOT that i'd do better... (though i did, and as yrs gone by, had the more accurate forecast posted on my blog(s). Why?,  i do much better than intelligent folks when it comes to what i call the "2wkAnom" periods as its based on my science discoveries of Galacsics) ...but its the responsibility of all to know when things need to be improved and to talk 'bout how to improve it OPENLY and not let humans fall into a "HAL SITUATION"**** as is happening today.


-------------------------
-------------------------
****when humans for whatever reason mainly become bahrayne lazy...

[human like calm robot voice] ...s p e ll   c h e c k   C O R R E C T I O N   s a y s   c h a n g e ::  "bahrayne lazy"  to "brain lazy"...

(...thanks spellchk!!! i kould knot have dune it widout u******) 
...allow themselves to believe that compu'r processing is better than human imagination.

Why i SO MUCH HATE when calculators where allowed in classes nd saw kids turning on their calcs (now cells) to figure how much is 2+3-1+4-8   ...ITS THE FIRST NUMBER YOU SEE ON A CALCULATOR,  WHEN YOU TURN IT ON!.

i hate that (clacs & cells in classroom) so much that i have a predetermined "turn in my grave" already set for 3 mins. after i'm buried (hopefully yrs from now) as a reaction to that event.


******become illiterate in not thinking how to spell for MYSELF.
Quoting 154. FOREX:

Our military is already at historic lows. Maybe we can take money from welfare program to fund the models.
The US Military budget is larger than that of the next nine countries combined--eight of whom are our allies. If ever an operation could stand to be trimmed, it's our military. But I do agree that we should take money from our corporate welfare programs; put an end to that nonsense and we'll have plenty of money for a too-large military, greatly upgraded computer models, and programs for the needy.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
On the upgrade issues, now that they have identified some of the problems, hopefully the GFS will improve in the future. They have done several upgrades over the years and they did a pretty substantial one a few years back that included resolution upgrades and issues related to the effects of land interaction. Funding is definitely an issue; they have been under-staffed and under-funded for some time.

Here are some of the current model upgrades on tap per NOAA for some of the other models they use:

WCOSS
IMPLEMENTATION
DATEDESCRIPTION OF CHANGENOAAPORT (NP)
DATA ALREADY ON NOAAPORT?NWS TINS/ 
INFORMATIONAL
BRIEFINGSSept 29, 2015
Upgrade of SREF
The SREF will be upgraded, removing the NMM member and increasing remaining members to 13.Products will impact NP15-32
Oct 1, 2015
Upgrade of GLMP
The LAMP will be upgraded on NDGD to include new elements.Products will NOT be added to NP15-41Oct 1, 2015
Upgrade of GLMP
The GFS MOS will be upgraded.Changes will affect NP15-34Oct 6th, 2015
Upgrade of Global RTOFS
The Global RTOFS will be upgradedProducts will NOT be added to NP15-36Oct 20, 2015
Upgrade of Graphical Turbulence Guidance
The GTG will be moved from AWC to NCEPs WCOSS. Output will change from GRIB1 to GRIB2Products will be added to NP15-27Oct 13th, 2015
Upgrade of GEFS
The GEFS will include a major upgrade with 0.5 deg resolution output.Products will NOT be added to NP15-43Oct 6th, 2015
Upgrade of Global RTOFS
The Global RTOFS will be upgradedProducts will NOT be added to NP15-36
Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:



Euro had that track the whole time and the NHC was trusting the GFS and yet again busted and had to switch toward the Euro overnight.

Maybe missing some little cumulus in its, umm, "parameterization" (see the excellent blog entry)?
BTW, in one of the leading German newspapers, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, yesterday there has been an article about the superiority of ECMWF as well. Article isn't as detailed as the blog entry from Bob Henson, though. At the end they say that there is some disagreement between the member states of ECMWF in respect to funding the next upgrade of the model ...


ECMWF 2013 Corporate video
ALL models have had a recent drop off in skill for 500 mb in the Northern Hemisphere, the GFS was worse than the ECMWF and UKMET.





The developmental GFS (PR4DEV: Experimental T1534 Semi-Lagrangian GFS with hybrid 4-D ENKF/VAR data assimilation) shows little improvement in skill for 500 mb in the Northern Hemisphere. The overall scorecard for the PR4DEV shows statistical improvement over the current GFS, but that just means it only has to be a little better than the current GFS.




For Atlantic Hurricane track in 2015 the PR4DEV is a little worse at longer hours than the current GFS.




For West Pacific Hurricane track in 2015 the PR4DEV is better across the board than the current GFS.





To me in looks like the hybrid 4-D assimilation proposed for the GFS will not result in a significant increase in skill but will be a step in continuous improvement.
¿Por qué el modelo del CEPPM/ECMWF predijo tan bien a Joaquín?

Bob Henson's entry is now covered in Spanish. Unfortunately they refer it to Doc: Interesante trabajo del Dr. Jeff Masters que analiza el porqué nuevamente el modelo (o modelos) europeo del CEPMP predijo mejor la trayectoria del huracán Joaquín que el resto de los modelos americanos de predicción cuando se encontraba cerca de la costa este americana.
Do the models perform better in LaNina vs ElNino or visa versa?
Quoting 91. OCF:


So the cold-core storm we had in SoCal over the weekend (all of .02 inches in Long Beach on Sunday) makes a complete circle to the south and comes back at us for a second go, wetter than ever? Cool.


We got almost an inch against the hills which are greening!
Quoting 163. nrtiwlnvragn:
ALL models have had a recent drop off in skill for 500 mb in the Northern Hemisphere, the GFS was worse than the ECMWF and UKMET.

The heinous deed of Godzilla El Nino?

BTW, on twitter there is a hashtag ECMWF_winning. Quite humurous at times ;-)
If the GFS is so bad then we shouldn't to see anyone posting model runs showing doom. Remember, it can't be trusted.
Quoting 146. Weathergirlklein:



What about us down south? I'm ready for a good cold bit of weather (with NO humidity!!!!). So far we've only gotten to the 60s, and with the insane humidity it doesn't feel super good. Even dry 60s would be better than wet 60s.


Last half of October or November. It's coming. Climatology eventually wins.
Quoting 167. barbamz:


The heinous deed of Godzilla El Nino?


The lower skill level has only shown up in the last few weeks, El Nino has been around for what, 3-4 months? It looks like the drop off is improving, have to see if it does not then maybe there is some correlation.
Quoting 158. Neapolitan:

The US Military budget is larger than that of the next nine countries combined--eight of whom are our allies. If ever an operation could stand to be trimmed, it's our military. But I do agree that we should take money from our corporate welfare programs; put an end to that nonsense and we'll have plenty of money for a too-large military, greatly upgraded computer models, and programs for the needy.




The US military budget, arguably one of the few Constitutionally mandated budget items, continues at around 20% of the budget and provides security for the free world. Are we spending too much or is Europe and Japan not spending enough?
Quoting 171. canyonboy:



Are we spending too much or is Europe and Japan not spending enough?


We're spending too much.
lots of green heading to the Atlantic
Quoting 155. SC29483:

Can I hear an Amen! What the heck. I am glad I am not the only one having trouble with this one. And they are still cancelling routes this morning. Incredible.


FWIW, schools and students are bound by various state (and in some cases, city) education laws that mandate a certain number of days in class. The district may have had to make a judgement call that the costs associated with reopening schools when it's clear that not all students would have the ability to make it in no longer outweighed the benefits of continuing education and meeting mandatory requirements. Otherwise, the district would have to alter vacation and/or summer days (as they do here in NY when we've exhausted our allotment of "snow days") in order to stay in compliance, which opens a Pandora's Box of issues including union resistance, contract issues, and state testing requirements.
Quoting 168. Bucsboltsfan:

If the GFS is so bad then we shouldn't to see anyone posting model runs showing doom. Remember, it can't be trusted.


Other than the model runs posted on here, I can't remember the last time I looked at the GFS. The last straw for me was when it predicted I would get less than 0.50" of rain during a time when almost 18 inches fell, in late July/early August. It just seems pointless for me to look at it when it seems to have some sort of flaw in predicting precipitation accurately in FL.
Quoting 153. SouthTampa:

"I know it's 14 days out, but something to keep an eye on". "Could be interesting".


If that would come to pass I hope a cold front would pick it up and sweep it away ENE but hopefully avoid the Bahamas.
Quoting 166. canyonboy:



We got almost an inch against the hills which are greening!


.07 in West Hills. :/
Quoting 145. StormTrackerScott:

Wonder if ricderr was ducting for cover yesterday. Seems he's in the storm zone lately.

NWS El Paso@NWSElPaso 15h15 hours ago
331pm: Hail covering I-10 near Horizon. #ElPaso. Photo courtesy TxDOT.




i watched this storm form and run for two hours before it hit us...it traveled up from mexico...it looked like it would hit our office and also our home......but as it crossed the border it was just slightly to our east.....we got no more than high winds and heavy rains.....parts of el paso saw over 2 inches in 24 hours...and there's minor flooding.....el paso...soccorro...and horizon city saw hail as large as eggs.....we have a friend who has two 80,000 sq ft wharehouses...and he took a beating...holes in his roof....cracks to his storefront windows...some really severe damage...and the local mets have us rated with a high chance for more severe weather today....










Quoting 179. ricderr:




Daaaaaaamn ric... hope that individual's got full glass coverage...
While on the topic of US federal spending; here is a 2014 Chart on discretionary spending. You will notice that government spending on science/energy/government (where the NOAA budgets are probably cobbled together from) are in the lowest percentages. Much like the response to Sandy, many governments cobble funds together for something "after the fact" when some tragedy or disaster occurs rather then being pro-active with preventive funding:

Programs & Services
Health Care 27.49%
National Defense 23.91%
Job and Family Security 18.17%
Net Interest 9.07%
Veterans Benefits 5.93%
Education and Job Training 3.59%
Immigration, Law Enforcement, and Administration of Justice 2.00%
International Affairs 1.85%
Natural Resources, Energy, and Environment 1.64%
Science, Space, and Technology Programs 1.13%
Agriculture 0.97%
Community, Area, and Regional Development 0.43%
Response to Natural Disasters 0.39%
Additional Government Programs 3.42%

Quoting 174. LongIslandBeaches:



FWIW, schools and students are bound by various state (and in some cases, city) education laws that mandate a certain number of days in class. The district may have had to make a judgement call that the costs associated with reopening schools when it's clear that not all students would have the ability to make it in no longer outweighed the benefits of continuing education and meeting mandatory requirements. Otherwise, the district would have to alter vacation and/or summer days (as they do here in NY when we've exhausted our allotment of "snow days") in order to stay in compliance, which opens a Pandora's Box of issues including union and contract issues and state testing requirements.
Same here. We are in Dorchester2 and we like most (all?) of the other affected districts except Charleson, are out today. I have already told the kids, that we will be getting out of school later than scheduled on the 2015-2016 school calender. AND if we have another ice storm again (when buses can't run) - it will be even longer. They do build some days in the school calendar, but I do not know how many.
Quoting 178. ricderr:




i watched this storm form and run for two hours before it hit us...it traveled up from mexico...it looked like it would hit our office and also our home......but as it crossed the border it was just slightly to our east.....we got no more than high winds and heavy rains.....parts of el paso saw over 2 inches in 24 hours...and there's minor flooding.....el paso...soccorro...and horizon city saw hail as large as eggs.....we have a friend who has two 80,000 sq ft wharehouses...and he took a beating...holes in his roof....cracks to his storefront windows...some really severe damage...and the local mets have us rated with a high chance for more severe weather today....













Wow that storm looks awesome!
Looks like extratropical transition is happening now

Quoting 174. LongIslandBeaches:



FWIW, schools and students are bound by various state (and in some cases, city) education laws that mandate a certain number of days in class. The district may have had to make a judgement call that the costs associated with reopening schools when it's clear that not all students would have the ability to make it in no longer outweighed the benefits of continuing education and meeting mandatory requirements. Otherwise, the district would have to alter vacation and/or summer days (as they do here in NY when we've exhausted our allotment of "snow days") in order to stay in compliance, which opens a Pandora's Box of issues including union resistance, contract issues, and state testing requirements.


we are already making up missing last Friday on oct 23...and we have 3 days built in the week of thanksgiving as make up days...Charleston builds at least 9 days into the calendar for such events...and the last 3 days of school are half days...make them full days to make up 1.5 of the days....
Quoting 167. barbamz:


The heinous deed of Godzilla El Nino?

BTW, on twitter there is a hashtag ECMWF_winning. Quite humurous at times ;-)


But seriously, when is the GFS going to get an upgrade?
187. vis0
and to repeat myself (from last yr & last Dr. Masters (Mr. Henson) blog, why does a graph only show 80% (success at best reaches 77% so the graph presentation (not a Dr. Master or Mr. Henson's product) looks better i guess when the top 20% of the graph is cut off) see::.

Why not show the full graph "100% tall" so we can see that we need to really improve if our best grade/class is a C- to C.

 i never had lower grade than an "A-" from 1st through HS...except in Spanish...weird, Si? ..porky' jo soy He'spanico. :- P~~  (the Spanish tongue rolls more so i added '"~~"  to character / ANSI emoticon to symbolize that fact.

PLEASE, Do not forget to DONATE to official site(s) to help with Flooding and wind damages caused by the Western Atlantic's "Tropical Onslaught" bought on by  the cut off ULL (Carolina) & 2105 Joaquin (Bahamas, ~Bermuda).

Did cumulus clouds make the difference in Joaquin’s track forecasts?, was on of the leading Qs asked & answered by the blog today...now you know why i use my funktopGal (FTG, 3D-ish maps to pop even the smallest clouds) see my Cincopa® created Joaquin slideshow (still being updated, as adding images to that slideshow, i think...as my membership states it was ended, hope that's an error. Will upload more FTG images to add to that slideshow this evening. If by midnite tonite you still only see 120 images as to the Joaquin slideshow, then for whatever reason my membership there, was ended). BTW, have post ~16 of the dozens of varieties of my 1990s FTGs on WxU, most i deleted but some still around, here one with colour added thus more Funktop-ish, sadly i have to lower KB quality to ~500-800Kb otherwise i'd be uploading 2 to 4MB images too slow for my connection.'

Funktop is the name of the creator a very intelligent human with plenty of math skills is  Mr. Funktop who create the style of funktop imagry...

"Gal" is short for Galacsics an area of science i state fits as; PhysicsQuantumGalasics (PQG, very pe"q" lar is gravity).

i created in the early 1990s through curiosity NOT math skills as Mr (Dr?) Funktop's,  a series of ways to 'pop" and colorize B&W imagery i recorded from NBC 4's Dr. Frank Fields weather presentations i VHS'd during the 19780s & 80s 
i used stills from those VHS tapes to test photo editors for photo editing developers during the 1990s and tinkered with filters to separate cloud differences via my filters to better present what i call complex physics to simple Galacsics areas in weather changes.

These are thing nuts do, think out of the box..circle..hexagon...~32 sub dimensions...POOF


PLEASE, Do not forget to DONATE to official site(s) to
help with Flooding and wind damages caused by the Western Atlantic's
"Tropical Onslaught" bought on by  the cut off ULL (Carolina) & 2105
Joaquin (Bahamas, ~Bermuda).,peace
Or Awful!, if you are on the receiving end!

Quoting 183. FunnelVortex:



Wow that storm looks awesome!
Quoting 153. SouthTampa:

"I know it's 14 days out, but something to keep an eye on". "Could be interesting".


In the years of Texas' deadly drought which ended miraculously in May, FIM-9 was sending us a Cat 3 every month of every season. Maybe it has some kind of sympathy input at initialization like 'let's make a storm for who *needs* it. I would beg GT not to post the 9 runs. FIM 7 & 8 aren't much better.
Quoting 186. FunnelVortex:



But seriously, when is the GFS going to get an upgrade?


It just got an upgrade less than a year ago. Doesn't seem to have helped though. In fairness, I think that upgrade was only just to improve resolution.
Quoting 164. barbamz:

¿Por qué el modelo del CEPPM/ECMWF predijo tan bien a Joaquín?

Bob Henson's entry is now covered in Spanish. Unfortunately they refer it to Doc: Interesante trabajo del Dr. Jeff Masters que analiza el porqué nuevamente el modelo (o modelos) europeo del CEPMP predijo mejor la trayectoria del huracán Joaquín que el resto de los modelos americanos de predicción cuando se encontraba cerca de la costa este americana.


Quantas idiomas sabe usted?
Quoting 188. tropicofcancer:

Or Awful!, if you are on the receiving end!




Depends on who you are :-)
Or how much insurance you had. ;-]
Quoting 192. FunnelVortex:



Depends on who you are :-)
Quoting 193. tropicofcancer:

Or how much insurance you had. ;-]



Insurance is really just a huge scam anyways. ;-)
GEOS-5 has been picking up on that same possible storm coming out of the SW Caribbean. Yesterday it had it hitting East Cuba, today it's a monster trying to thread the needle. Doesn't pull it together til 170plus hours out. I don't have alot of confidence in any storm forming on a model out of that area post 5 days, especially this time of year. It sort of seems to be just developing something from climatology with maybe some support from MJO solutions.
Quoting 195. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 has been picking up on that same possible storm coming out of the SW Caribbean. Yesterday it had it hitting East Cuba, today it's a monster trying to thread the needle. Doesn't pull it together til 170plus hours out. I don't have alot of confidence in any storm forming on a model out of that area post 5 days, especially this time of year. It sort of seems to be just developing something from climatology with maybe some support from MJO solutions.



We can dismiss it until the other models pick up on it.
Seems to be no one here today
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015

Satellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken.
The low-level center is now about half a degree west of the
mid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted.
Dvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to
60 kt.

A gradual spin-down of the cyclone is expected while Joaquin moves
over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream. Deep convection
should probably disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, so
the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at
that time. The cyclone will likely become a more classic
extratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to
form near the center. The official intensity forecast is very close
to the previous one, and is in closest agreement with the GFS
forecast.

Joaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is
embedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.
This motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After
that time, the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone
should decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming
under the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western
Europe. The official forecast is adjusted southward, and is near a
blend of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and
beyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 41.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 41.8N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 42.6N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 09/0000Z 43.5N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 44.2N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z 43.5N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 42.5N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 40.5N 49.4W AT 07/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 400 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING ENE AT 28 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 40N-46N BETWEEN 38W-51W. CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING COVERAGE AS THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 10N47W TO 02N45W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 45W-55W WITH
A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE WAVE
AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N53W TO 10N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-60W AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 50W-
57W.
Quoting 197. FunnelVortex:

Seems to be no one here today


Happens where this is nothing threatening land to cause excitement around here. There's really no excitement in national weather either, the US as a whole has pretty tame weather right now with nothing going on besides the ULL out West.

With exception of Joaquin in the Northern latitudes, the Atlantic MDR is a graveyard at the moment.
Also noting the beautiful weather across most of the SE conus; last night was the first time that I saw the stars out again overnight in over a week and the sun is shining a beautiful in North Florida at the moment.

Those who are "missing" from the Blog this morning (if not at work or school) should be outside enjoying the weather; painful to watch how beautiful it is outside right now from the office window.......................... :(


Quoting 201. weathermanwannabe:

With exception of Joaquin in the Northern latitudes, the Atlantic MDR is a graveyard at the moment.
Also noting the beautiful weather across most of the SE conus; last night was the first time that I saw the stars out again overnight in over a week and the sun is shining a beautiful in North Florida at the moment.

Those who are "missing" from the Blog this morning (if not at work or school) should be outside enjoying the weather; painful to watch how beautiful it is outside right now from the office window.......................... :(





At least you have a window, I work in a secure IT area with no windows on the entire floor of the building. I think I'll be going for a walk outside after lunch!
Quoting 164. barbamz:

¿Por qué el modelo del CEPPM/ECMWF predijo tan bien a Joaquín?

Bob Henson's entry is now covered in Spanish. Unfortunately they refer it to Doc: Interesante trabajo del Dr. Jeff Masters que analiza el porqué nuevamente el modelo (o modelos) europeo del CEPMP predijo mejor la trayectoria del huracán Joaquín que el resto de los modelos americanos de predicción cuando se encontraba cerca de la costa este americana.



What's funny is I read that blurb to myself and caught myself reading "Jeff Masters" as the more Spanish-sounding "Heff Masters." It can only bolster Dr. Masters' aura to have a nickname like that. Perhaps he's the most interesting man in the (weather) world after all.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This board is boring until winter storms starts showing up. That's where the real action is


Beautiful October day in C FL.
Quoting 195. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 has been picking up on that same possible storm coming out of the SW Caribbean. Yesterday it had it hitting East Cuba, today it's a monster trying to thread the needle. Doesn't pull it together til 170plus hours out. I don't have alot of confidence in any storm forming on a model out of that area post 5 days, especially this time of year. It sort of seems to be just developing something from climatology with maybe some support from MJO solutions.


This is the time of year that most of the Hurricanes that hit Florida develop in the NW and Central Caribbean region. Just go back and look at the Hurricanes of 1906,1944, 1947, 1948 and King in 1950 which struck South Florida. They all came out of that area during the Month of October.