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Devastating Rains in South Carolina; Joaquin Lashing Bermuda

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 8:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2015

One of the most widespread and intense multi-day rain events in the history of the Southeast is bringing misery and destruction to thousands of residents. A broad swath of deep tropical moisture extending west from Hurricane Joaquin has intercepted a preexisting frontal zone and a strong upper-level low parked over the Southeast. These factors produced a NW-to-SE band of extremely heavy rain on Saturday from the northern South Carolina coast to the Uplands at the other end of the state. Flooding is widespread, and at least four deaths have been reported.

On Sunday, the band was slowly pivoting in counterclockwise fashion to a more W-to-E orientation. This was providing some relief to Charleston, which experienced a flash flood emergency with countless water rescues at high tide late Saturday night. The worst conditions on Sunday afternoon had shifted north to the area from Columbia to Myrtle Beach, where numerous flash flood watches and warnings were in effect. “The City of Georgetown is predominantly under water,” said Georgetown (SC) fire chief Joey Tanner, at 11:30 am EDT Sunday. Extensive coastal and tidal flooding has also returned to the Virginia and North Carolina coast, where an intensification of onshore flow has produced tides around 3 feet above normal on Sunday, comparable to those observed on Friday.


FIgure 1. An American Red Cross van was stranded in floodwaters on U.S. Hwy. 17 North near Georgetown, S.C., on Sunday, October 4, 2015. Several sections of Highway 17 were shut down between Charleston and Georgetown. Image credit: AP Photo/Mic Smith.


Figure 2. NWS/NEXRAD radar imagery at 2:50 pm EDT Sunday, October 4, 2015, showed a persistent swath of rain with very heavy embedded cells, extending from west to east across much of South Carolina and far south North Carolina. Image credit: WU’s Storm app for iPad.


Sunday’s is the second round of extremely heavy rain for the SC/NC border area, which was first hammered on Thursday and Friday. Conditions will gradually improve through most of the Carolinas tonight into Monday as the upper low begins to move eastward, but the coastal border area will be the last to see the heavy rain depart. From roughly Florence, SC, to Wilmington, NC, we may end up with some truly phenomenal 3- to 5-day rain totals. According to Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel, an NWS employee 3 miles northeast of Boone Hall Plantation in Charleston County reported a storm total of 24.23” on Sunday morning. It would not be surprising to see a number of storm totals in the 15” - 25” range, and perhaps several beyond 25”. We can also expect to see significant river flooding over the next several days as runoff from the inland rains makes its way downstream.

Here are several records already set in South Carolina:

--At the Charleston airport (CHS), 14.48” fell from Thursday through Saturday, October 1-3. This beats the previous 3-day record of 11.95” set on June 9-11, 1973. Most of the rain--11.50”--fell on Saturday, October 3, beating the previous calendar-day record of 10.52” (September 21, 1998). Weather records at CHS began in 1983.

--At Downtown Charleston, where weather records began in 1870, the total of 13.80” for October 1-3 beats the previous 3-day record of 12.39”, set on June 9-11, 1973.

--At Columbia, at least 7.46” had fallen on Sunday as of 2:00 pm EDT. Combined with 0.46” on Friday and 3.57” on Saturday, this gives Columbia an unofficial three-day total of at least 11.46”, with rain still falling.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA's Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical "recurrence interval" of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston and Columbia are 17.1" and 14.2", respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston and Columbia are 14.8" and 12.5", respectively.


Figure 3. 24-hour recurrence intervals for rainfall from 8:00 am EDT Saturday, October 3, through Sunday, October 4. A large swath from Columbia to Charleston experienced 24-hour rainfalls that would be expected to recur less than once every 100 years. Recurrence intervals of greater than 100 years are not shown in this analysis. Multi-day rainfalls by the time this event is over may reach the 1-in-1000-year recurrence interval in some locations. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.)MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page. Image credit: MetSTAT.


Adding insult to injury, the Southeast Regional Climate Center reported on Sunday that the Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) had scored its 11th consecutive day of measurable rain, a mark reached seven other times since records began in the area in 1887. If it rains on Monday as predicted, RDU will tied its record-longest wet streak of 12 consecutive days, recorded from July 28 to August 8, 1887.

What’s causing the Carolina rains?
There isn’t just one culprit behind the incredible rains befalling the Carolinas--it is a multifactoral event, with several weather features coming into play. A new post by WU contributor Lee Grenci analyzes why the event is neither #Joaquin nor #NotJoaquin. Another WU blogger, Marshall Shepherd, outlines the connections between this event and the notorious “atmospheric river”--a feature behind some of the world’s heaviest mid-latitude rain events--in this article at Forbes.com. See also the Weather Channel’s comprehensive coverage of this event at weather.com, which will be frequently updated today and Monday.

Hurricane Joaquin approaching Bermuda
Conditions are rapidly deteriorating on Bermuda as Hurricane Joaquin draws closer, as seen on Bermuda radar. Now down to Category 2 strength, with top sustained winds of 105 mph as of 2:00 pm EDT Sunday, Joaquin was located about 125 miles southwest of Bermuda. Joaquin will be passing just west of the island, putting Bermuda on the more dangerous right-hand side of the storm, and the island remains in a hurricane warning. However, it appears Joaquin may move just far enough west to spare Bermuda from sustained hurricane-level conditions, as hurricane-force winds extend only about 60 miles from the center. Bermuda International Airport reported winds gusting to 55 mph around 3 pm ADT (2 pm EDT), with sustained winds near tropical storm strength (39 mph). After passing Bermuda, Joaquin should continue zipping across the Atlantic as it evolves into an extratropical storm.


Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Joaquin at 1845Z Sunday, October 4, 2015. Bermuda is the small magenta area just northeast of Joaquin’s core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 5. Lt. Col. Keith Gibson, a pilot with the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, pilots his C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft into Hurricane Joaquin on Saturday, October 3, 2015. On Friday, an Air Force hurricane hunter plane spiraled down from its penetration altitude of 10,000 in the eye to a altitude of 800 - 1000 feet, in order to search for the missing ship, El Faro. The ship, with a crew of 33, is still missing. Image credit: Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

Tropical Storm Oho likely to angle southeast of Hawaii
Despite unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, Tropical Storm Oho was apparently hindered from strengthening on Saturday by interaction with a large and strong band of convection extending well to its southeast. Bigger than Oho itself, this band was embedded within strong southwesterly monsoon flow, creating a setup more typical to the Northwest Pacific than the normally cooler and more stable Central Pacific. Strong wind shear also took its toll on Oho. The intense rainband has since weakened and moved further away, and Oho--now looking much more like a typical tropical storm, with a well-defined central core of convection--is projected to approach hurricane strength over the next several days as it moves mainly to the northeast. While models diverge somewhat on the particulars of Oho’s track, all dynamical and statistical models keep the storm well southeast of Hawaii. Oho’s remnant circulation could inject energy and moisture into a large, intense Pacific trough that will be approaching the Pacific Northwest more than a week from now.


Figure 6. Infrared image of Tropical Storm Oho from 1900 GMT Sunday, October 4. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

In the Central Atlantic: Invest 91L
It’s late in the season for Cape Verde-type systems moving across the tropical Atlantic, but Invest 91L is trying to buck the odds. At present, 91L is little more than a large area of disorganized convection. Track models take 91L on a gradual curve north of the Lesser Antilles over the next five days. NHC gives 91L a 10% chance of development through Tuesday and a 30% chance through Friday. None of the leading long-range dynamical models develop 91L substantially during the upcoming week; this, plus climatology, suggests that 91L is unlikely to amount to much, although some models do intensify 91L toward the 4- to 5-day period.

A forecaster’s worst nightmare: Typhoon Mujigae intensifies to Cat 4 just before landfall
On Saturday, Typhoon Mujigae was forecast to hit Zhanjiang, China, about 200 miles west of Hong Kong, as a Category 1 storm. However, in the twelve hours before landfall, Mujigae surprised forecasters by rapidly intensifying from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds to an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, and made landfall on the north side of the city of Zhanjiang near 1 am EDT Sunday (05 UTC.) An unexpected rapid intensification just before landfall in a heavily populated area is every hurricane forecaster's nightmare, and with Zhanjiang'a population being 7 million, there is the potential that Mujigae caused heavy loss of life and severe damage due to lack of preparedness for a Category 4 typhoon. The airport in Zhanjiang, which appears to have just missed getting hit by the weaker southern eyewall of the typhoon, recorded sustained winds of 65 mph at 2 pm Sunday local time, and rainfall of 5.20". The embedded tweet below shows Mujigae making landfall.

We’ll be back with our next update on Monday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters




Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Link
Live now...guy stranded in pick-up truck.
Very informative updates as always. I have been reading every entry and every comment and it all has left me speechless. Just want the Doc and Bob Henson to know how much they are appreciated.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
316 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

SCC029-035-051916-
/O.EXT.KCHS.FL.W.0019.151005T0210Z-000000T0000Z/
/GIVS1.3.ER.151005T0210Z.151009T1200Z.000000T0000Z .NR/
316 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
The Edisto River Near Givhans Ferry.
* At 2 PM Sunday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river is expected to rise above flood stage by
tonight and continue to rise to near 16.0 feet by Friday morning.
Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 15.0 feet, major flooding occurs as the entire flood plain
between Canadys and Norman Landing is inundated. Extensive damage
occurs to homes and cabins in this area and most river access roads
are impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 8055 3310 8053 3308 8036 3290 8037
3290 8045 3302 8044
The Euro shows nothing out 240 hrs.
Just FYI, we'll have more on the tragic flash flood incident in southern France in our Monday update.

--Bob
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2m2 minutes ago
Reported dam failure on the west side of Florence, SC. A potentially life-threatening situation in the area of Oakdale and Forest Lake Dam.
Just saw that a long stretch of I-95 in SC has been closed. What a mess.
US 17 in SC is very close to the coast. As a matter of fact, you can see the mouth of the Pee Dee River going through Georgetown on 17. Not surprising we've seen flooding by the highway.
Terrible. Friends there. About 5 miles from here.

Quoting 6. Luisport:

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2m2 minutes ago
Reported dam failure on the west side of Florence, SC. A potentially life-threatening situation in the area of Oakdale and Forest Lake Dam.
Quoting 5. BobHenson:

Just FYI, we'll have more on the tragic flash flood incident in southern France in our Monday update.

--Bob



you need too fix your blog

the NHC has the JQ slowing down some not speeding up

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located by satellite and he Bermuda radar near latitude 31.6 North,
longitude 66.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast
near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a slight
decrease in forward is expected to continue through Monday
. On the
forecast track, the center of Joaquin will pass just west of Bermuda
later this afternoon, and pass north of Bermuda tonight.



your blog has this

urricane Joaquin approaching Bermuda
Conditions are rapidly deteriorating on Bermuda as Hurricane Joaquin draws closer. Now down to Category 2 strength, with top sustained winds of 105 mph as of 2:00 pm EDT, Joaquin was located about 125 miles southwest of Bermuda. Joaquin will be passing just west of the island, putting Bermuda on the more dangerous right-hand side of the storm, and the island remains in a hurricane warning. However, it appears Joaquin may move just far enough west to spare Bermuda from sustained hurricane-level conditions, as hurricane-force winds extend only about 60 miles from the center. Bermuda International Airport reported winds gusting to 55 mph around 3 pm ADT (2 pm EDT), with sustained winds near tropical storm strength (39 mph). After passing Bermuda, Joaquin should continue zipping across the Atlantic as it evolves into an extratropical storm
Quoting 1. wagnernc:

Link
Live now...guy stranded in pick-up truck.


Swift water rescue in progress,
Quoting 5. BobHenson:

Just FYI, we'll have more on the tragic flash flood incident in southern France in our Monday update.
--Bob

Thank you, Bob, very appreciated, and thanks for the good entry as well! Hard to keep up with all those catastrophic weather events happening all over the world at the same time.

Typhoon Mujigae lashes southern China, at least four dead
Reuters, Sun Oct 4, 2015 11:08am EDT


This morning I was up early enough to safe the loop of Mujigae's landfall. The Himawari-Twitter loop in the entry is even more impressive, though.

Good night from Europe. Best wishes for all who are in the crosshair of severe weather tonight.
I've been watching that truck rescue. I can not believe that man swam out there. Unbelievable.
74 miles. I live a stone's throw from the junction of I-20 and I-95. 95 is closed from there all the way to I-26, 74 miles to the south. The highest rainfall totals in the last 24 hours have occurred along that spine of I-95, east to the ocean and west to Columbia. I'd say Sumter was dead center of heaviest precipitation. Damage to bridges and roads is incomprehensible.

Quoting 7. rwdobson:

Just saw that a long stretch of I-95 in SC has been closed. What a mess.
This is quickly becoming one of those disasters that's far worse than even expected and there is not enough resources to deal with the totality of all this historic rain.
Quoting 13. kristywoods:

I've been watching that truck rescue. I can not believe that man swam out there. Unbelievable.
Looks like there was also an exhausted police officer or firefighter also in the truck?? I don't know how that happened, but they have him out safe. Good job, guys.

EDIT: Got both men safely to shore. Excellent rescue work. I don't know what the backstory is to the video, but they are lucky that swiftwater rescue team was there and available.
1st it was OK KS and TX flooding in the spring time this year and now major flooding in SC and NC




i hop CA is next too see major flooding
Quoting 16. sar2401:

Looks like there was also an exhausted police officer or firefighter also in the truck?? I don't know how that happened, but they have him out safe. Good job, guys.

I think the civil official was the driver of the truck. The other guy swam out there and kicked the back window in and pulled him out of the cab before the rescue team got there.
Here's the ultimate road guide for South Carolina for this flooding event from SCDOT.


I was thinking that looked like police officers they were saving. The first one couldn't really even stand unassisted. One more to go..
Quoting 1. wagnernc:

Link
Live now...guy stranded in pick-up truck.


Thank you for the link. Very happy ending, minus first guy's pants, both men were rescued safely.
Quoting 18. wagnernc:


I think the civil official was the driver of the truck. The other guy swam out there and kicked the back window in and pulled him out of the cab before the rescue team got there.
Ak, OK. Took some real courage to make that swim. I'm glad they are both OK.
Holy bananas! Tropical craziness around the globe.


Quoting 6. Luisport:

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2m2 minutes ago
Reported dam failure on the west side of Florence, SC. A potentially life-threatening situation in the area of Oakdale and Forest Lake Dam.
More about this dam here. Looks like it has been overtopping for four or more hours so, at some point, it will breach, if it hasn't already.
Quoting 17. Tazmanian:

1st it was OK KS and TX flooding in the spring time this year and now major flooding in SC and NC




i hop CA is next too see major flooding


Well does Taz ever have a way with words. I think back to Texas and their historic drought that got all but wiped out by this years record spring rains and devastating flooding. You get the good with the bad in this crazy new climate.
I live in the lower Piedmont of South Carolina, just east of Greenwood.... Winds have been on and off and rainfall totals have been astounding to say the least! Already have over 5'' of rain for today, but that is nothing compared to Columbia or Charleston. Prayers for the families and all who are out in this....
The upside to all this rain is that we will definitely be out of drought....

U.S. Drought Monitor forSouth Carolina
http://www.weather.gov/cae/rainfallAmounts.html
Bless those rescue crews.... working day and night. SC NEEDS some help and relief for them. These guys and gals are no quitters to saving lives, even put and jeopardize themselves. God speed and stop this rain!
Quoting 23. sar2401:

More about this dam here. Looks like it has been overtopping for four or more hours so, at some point, it will breach, if it hasn't already.


It's actually two dams in trouble. Oakdale lake dam has failed, sending extra water into forest lake, which is overtopping. From WMBF news.
Wasn't long before the chasers spotted other people doing dumb things in the raging flood...


I think the Gills Creek Flood Gauge in Columbia, SC may have failed.



Quoting 29. Skyepony:

Wasn't long before the chasers spotted other people doing dumb things in the raging flood...


I think the Gills Creek Flood Gauge in Columbia, SC may have failed.






The Guage washed away earlier today. Waiting on word from by brother in law as to whether water is still rising. He's on a hill, but there are 6' street signs under water a few houses down.
Quoting 26. JustPlantIt:

Bless those rescue crews.... working day and night. SC NEEDS some help and relief for them. These guys and gals are no quitters to saving lives, even put and jeopardize themselves. God speed and stop this rain!
FEMA is coordinating with the SC state EMA to get extra resources in from other areas of the state and surrounding states. I know Georgia and North Carolina have sent teams, and several in Alabama are on standby. South Carolina has not been forgotten.
The I-95 closure in SC has gone from 70miles to 90. The closure is centered around mile marker 86. Traffic is being detoured. This stretch of I-95 is expected to be closed til at least 11pm.

91L...

Re: post #31 and FEMA.... I remember 'Katrina'.... NO, please don't send FEMA. It will take weeks. Red Cross, volunteers, church groups will be more efficient at helping. Even bordering states will be more helpful in quick response. JMO
I heard that a yellow round ball rises into the sky and brings light with it.I.haven't seen it yet.Does anyone know what its called and will we ever see it again?
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

I heard that a yellow round ball rises into the sky and brings light with it.I.haven't seen it yet.Does anyone know what its called and will we ever see it again?


What is this object you speak of?
Uncle..



Update from my neck of the woods: Summerville/Jedburg, Dorchester County, SC

Slept late and woke up to NO Rain. Ahh.... (Yes, I know as I type the rain has started again)
I have been measuring rainfall using a mostly straight sided Panther Bucket - not meant to be an accurate measurement. Rather, it is (for us) an interesting way of gauging an approximation of rainfall in our backyard. Fri-Sat Afternoon 9", and Sat-Sun Afternoon 10.5" so a little less than 20" in two days.
Our neighborhood has handled this well, with holding ponds well below their banks (although much, much higher than I have seen.

Regarding alligators, Drako our resident pond alligator has not been seen recently.

Regarding staying staying out of the water - if alligators, snakes, spiders and fire ants are not enough to discourage this - think of the contamination (including fecal matter). If you play in the water wash up well afterward.

Edisto River Rising


Dire news from the midlands of SC. Which brings to mind the differences in our geography. I have lived in the lowcountry all of my life. The rivers, creeks and marshes are tidal all the way up to Summerville. Most of us live not far from some water source. The bad news is the additional water that can come from the ocean and pile up on top of rain water - especially at times of high tide. The good news for us in the lowcountry, is that the marshes can redistribute huge amounts of water. Without our marshes, I believe we would be much worse off. Not true for the inland areas, where there is no where for the water to go except to the rivers.

To get road closings by county and interstate in SC Link

Shot of the flooding from SC from Reddit.

Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

I heard that a yellow round ball rises into the sky and brings light with it.I.haven't seen it yet.Does anyone know what its called and will we ever see it again?


Welcome to Fall
Quoting 34. JustPlantIt:

Re: post #31 and FEMA.... I remember 'Katrina'.... NO, please don't send FEMA. It will take weeks. Red Cross, volunteers, church groups will be more efficient at helping. Even bordering states will be more helpful in quick response. JMO
FEMA is helping the state to coordinate fire, rescue and police response. The Red Cross and church groups can't do this. As I wrote, the additional teams are coming from Georgia and North Carolina, both bordering states. Teams in secondary states like Alabama are on standby if the need arises. The other volunteer groups are still doing their thing. The 2015 version of FEMA is not the 2005 version. I was on a FEMA USAR team and, believe me, I've seen the difference.
Quoting 40. CybrTeddy:

Shot of the flooding from SC from Reddit.


Dang! I guess the next couple of months will be a bad time to be a "cheap" used car from SC. Too bad those folks couldn't have driven away before the flood. It sure looks like they needed a shelter somewhere.
Yikes, never turn your back on a Typhoon... Thanks for the updates gentlemen...
Nasty here, blowing and heavy rain off and on. Thinking the heavy rain band sets up over us overnight.
For those of you on Twitter (or just on the Web), here's a great hashtag with plenty of links, video clips, etc.:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SCFlood?src=hash
Post #42. I think that the need has already arisen for this epic flooding situation.
Quoting 28. rwdobson:



It's actually two dams in trouble. Oakdale lake dam has failed, sending extra water into forest lake, which is overtopping. From WMBF news.
I don't quite understand the lack of spillways on those dams. I don't see any looking at the dams on Google Earth. They also aren't in the Federal Dam Safety Database, which makes me think these were some kind of private dams built without much oversight. Big trouble with them now.
Pouring buckets here with wind gusts over 40 mph. But I'm thankful the situation here isn't as bad as in South Carolina...at least, not yet.
Quoting 47. JustPlantIt:

Post #42. I think that the need has already arisen for this epic flooding situation.
It has. That's why those teams from other parts of SC and the surrounding states are on scene or enroute. This effort didn't just start an hour ago. The people on the ground there know their needs better than we do, and they have doing a good job with resources from what I've seen.
Re: Post #50. Kudos. Hope it happens soon.
Quoting 46. BobHenson:

For those of you on Twitter (or just on the Web), here's a great hashtag with plenty of links, video clips, etc.:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SCFlood?src=hash
And one of the first pictures reposted is the fake crocodile one. 683 retweets so far. I'd like to get a hold of this DJ Pyper character and throttle him.
Quoting 51. JustPlantIt:

Re: Post #50. Kudos. Hope it happens soon.
It's happening now. Does that qualify as soon?
Quoting 5. BobHenson:

Just FYI, we'll have more on the tragic flash flood incident in southern France in our Monday update.

--Bob


The Guardian, normally a reliable newspaper, contains this report from the Côte d’Azur :

"One local resident spoke of seeing two metres of water fall in less than two hours."

I think something was lost in translation.
Underwhelming compared to what is going on elsewhere, but the two retention ponds outside my window are now one.



I've heard Front Street in Wilmington is under water, but that was sort of expected.

Today is also the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Opal hitting the FL panhandle.
Re: Post #53..... I hope so and will wait and see. Time..... (as you know) will tell the tale. But for those in SC, I hope that it will happen a lot sooner than later. Thank you.
It looks like Bermuda is going to dodge a big bullet. Joaquin is looking a lot more ragged at the 5:00 update, the winds have fallen to 100 mph, and the hurricane winds are now only extending out to 45 miles from the center. The storm should pass comfortably west of Bermuda in terms of them feeling any sustained hurricane force winds. TS force winds still extend out 205 miles from the center, so they'll feel the effects from those. Bermuda is well built to resist the effects of TS force winds, so the effects should not be as bad as if the storm had made a closer approach. All in all, except for the poor folks in the Bahamas and on the El Faro, Joaquin has avoided areas where there could have been a lot of casualties.
Quoting 5. BobHenson:

Just FYI, we'll have more on the tragic flash flood incident in southern France in our Monday update.

--Bob

News reports here tonight on the Spanish news say that so far 17 people have been reported dead in the French Thunder storm events in the south of France.
200 litres of rain fell to a square metre which is how they measure rainfall here, that translates at 20 centimetres or about 8 inches.
Most of the people who were reported to have died did so trying to remove vehicles from underground garages.
On some of the video images there are water debris marks about 8 feet up the sides of buildings.
The scenes of devastation in the area have to be seen to be believed and I have no links yet. Mud and chaos everywhere with cars pilled up on top of each other.
Given that this area around Cannes and Cote de Azure is so tourist orientated the financial costs will also be very high.
Moores Creek National Battlefield just a few miles up the road from here:



Quoting 49. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pouring buckets here with wind gusts over 40 mph. But I'm thankful the situation here isn't as bad as in South Carolina...at least, not yet.


Won't know until tomorrow, but NC has dodged two bullets. We went from higher expected rain totals and a hurricane landfall less than a week ago to now.
Quoting 59. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Moores Creek National Battlefield just a few miles up the road from here:






OMG TA.....Im up in Wrightsboro but have certainly not been out to look at conditions around here but probly not much better
Technically im a little closer to ILM than you so i should say down in Wrightsboro.Im very near the airport and its pouring buckets here too
Quoting 55. win1gamegiantsplease:

Underwhelming compared to what is going on elsewhere, but the two retention ponds outside my window are now one.



I've heard Front Street in Wilmington is under water, but that was sort of expected.

Today is also the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Opal hitting the FL panhandle.

Thank goodness for retention ponds...and swamps.

Opal was kind of my Welcome Wagon visitor for Alabama. I had been here a month when it hit. After Katrina, I thought one more and I'm leaving. I'm still here, so we made it through the rest of that season. Little did I know it would be ten more seasons until now that I'd see haven't seen a hurricane again in Alabama. People were blaming me for being bad luck, being a Yankee and all, when I got here. Maybe I've turned out to be better luck than they thought. :-)
Folks, it's headed directly East now right for Bermuda. Correct me if I'm wrong but this wasn't part of forecast.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-66&zoom=2&info=i r&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=1400&height=10 00&type=Animation&numframes=20
It has just started POURING again here in East Cooper (Charleston). Weather Alert from STORM app says another 3 inches or so coming.

The rain had backed off to the north, but a new train has apparently re-formed to rumble right over us again.

WHYYYY, Lord?
Quoting 62. sar2401:

Thank goodness for retention ponds...and swamps.

Opal was kind of my Welcome Wagon visitor for Alabama. I had been here a month when it hit. After Katrina, I thought one more and I'm leaving. I'm still here, so we made it through the rest of that season. Little did I know it would be ten more seasons until now that I'd see haven't seen a hurricane again in Alabama. People were blaming me for being bad luck, being a Yankee and all, when I got here. Maybe I've turned out to be better luck than they thought. :-)


Maybe you maxed out your lifetime serving of disasters?
e.cen.florida.low?
Quoting 64. GreyJewel:
WHYYYY, Lord?
"Stuff happens," is what I heard.
Quoting 62. sar2401:

Thank goodness for retention ponds...and swamps.

Opal was kind of my Welcome Wagon visitor for Alabama. I had been here a month when it hit. After Katrina, I thought one more and I'm leaving. I'm still here, so we made it through the rest of that season. Little did I know it would be ten more seasons until now that I'd see haven't seen a hurricane again in Alabama. People were blaming me for being bad luck, being a Yankee and all, when I got here. Maybe I've turned out to be better luck than they thought. :-)


Growing up in the Triad, I think Baha can relate when I say nothing 'exciting' ever happens weather-wise there. Hurricanes rarely cause damage there (Fran and Hugo exceptions, Isabel not as bad), few tornadoes of note, and the snow has a funny way of missing the area. Ever since I've been in Wilmington, haven't had a hurricane yet (three years), maybe I'm why Joaquin stayed away lol. But I've brought the ice bug with me apparently.
Quoting 67. bappit:

"Stuff happens," is what I heard.


stuff happens,but this is a heck of a "stuff" is all i can say
Quoting 67. bappit:

"Stuff happens," is what I heard.

long time no see....
Quoting 63. Antm500:

Folks, it's headed directly East now right for Bermuda. Correct me if I'm wrong but this wasn't part of forecast.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-66&z oom=2&info=i r&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=14 00&height=10 00&type=Animation&numframes=20


Umm... no. It's moving north, with Bermuda east of it. It won't hit Bermuda directly now.
Mmm 91L could be like Gonzalo of last year lol

Gonzalo was absolutely NOT well forecast by the GFS ... and pre Gonzalo runs looked like current 18Z GFS run...
Quoting 63. Antm500:

Folks, it's headed directly East now right for Bermuda. Correct me if I'm wrong but this wasn't part of forecast.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-66&z oom=2&info=i r&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=14 00&height=10 00&type=Animation&numframes=20



I don't see the due east motion on the Bermuda radar. NE though.

http://www.weather.bm/tools/animateimages.asp?name =RADAR_250KM_SRI
Quoting 46. BobHenson:

For those of you on Twitter (or just on the Web), here's a great hashtag with plenty of links, video clips, etc.:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SCFlood?src=hash

I saw in the Twitter feed a posting that mentions that ALL of South Carolina's Republican congressmen voted against Federal aid for Sandy. The same tweet says that now we can show we're better than that. Sometimes karma's a hurricane.
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

I heard that a yellow round ball rises into the sky and brings light with it.I.haven't seen it yet.Does anyone know what its called and will we ever see it again?

Even sunny Florida wasn't sunny today... thoughts and prayers for all of you in SC right now.
Update: for those who were watching the El Faro situation, they have found deck gear and containers floating near a small oil slick. Can't confirm what ship it is from. Though they pulled a life preserver out this morning near that area that has been identified from the El Faro.
Looks like target practice..



Quoting 12. barbamz:


Thank you, Bob, very appreciated, and thanks for the good entry as well! Hard to keep up with all those catastrophic weather events happening all over the world at the same time.

Typhoon Mujigae lashes southern China, at least four dead
Reuters, Sun Oct 4, 2015 11:08am EDT


This morning I was up early enough to safe the loop of Mujigae's landfall. The Himawari-Twitter loop in the entry is even more impressive, though.

Good night from Europe. Best wishes for all who are in the crosshair of severe weather tonight.


I saved this loop to my computer, and now I can see how fragile even the most powerful of storms are whenever I please. I could use this as a teaching tool if I wanted to. Thank you guys so much for posting this!
Interesting "band" of rain came into ECFL directly from SC. Took a wide curve W and S inland in SC then exited E right over me. Seemed odd. Left a beautiful rainbow though

Quoting 63. Antm500:

Folks, it's headed directly East now right for Bermuda. Correct me if I'm wrong but this wasn't part of forecast.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-66&z oom=2&info=i r&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=14 00&height=10 00&type=Animation&numframes=20

In addition... current situation involving Joaquin and 91L reminds me of Fay and Pre-Gonzalo of last year!

Quoting 78. flsky:

Interesting "band" of rain came into ECFL directly from SC. Took a wide curve W and S inland in SC then exited E right over me. Seemed odd. Left a beautiful rainbow though




I think the low is centered right off the Carolina/Georgia coast, that might explain it
Quoting 76. hydrus:

Looks like target practice..





I'm wondering when was the last time there were 10 featured storms on the world map?
All this and the Indian Ocean is continuing very quiet!

Here's a bit about the French flooding:-

Violent storms and flooding have hit south-eastern France, killing at least 17 people with four more missing, officials say.

Link
Don't do twitter. What else ya got?

Quoting 46. BobHenson:

For those of you on Twitter (or just on the Web), here's a great hashtag with plenty of links, video clips, etc.:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SCFlood?src=hash
Quoting 79. CaribBoy:

In addition... current situation involving Joaquin and 91L reminds me of Fay and Pre-Gonzalo of last year!


I agree but luckily the situation with Joaquin went well, will only experience TS force winds, but 91L could be a possible hurricane in Bermuda this time next week... Something to watch for sure...
Quoting 68. win1gamegiantsplease:



Growing up in the Triad, I think Baha can relate when I say nothing 'exciting' ever happens weather-wise there. Hurricanes rarely cause damage there (Fran and Hugo exceptions, Isabel not as bad), few tornadoes of note, and the snow has a funny way of missing the area. Ever since I've been in Wilmington, haven't had a hurricane yet (three years), maybe I'm why Joaquin stayed away lol. But I've brought the ice bug with me apparently.

Please stay in Wilmington win1gamegiantsplease, I also live in Wilmington and I'll take an ice storm over a hurricane any day. I've lived here for almost 40 years and I've been thru some pretty bad hurricanes and I hope I never have to go thru one again but it's been awhile since we've had one so I know it's going to happen sooner or later. Also thanks for your input on this blog, I only lurk here but in my business I have to make some serious decisions in regard to hurricanes.
Quoting 74. BayFog:


I saw in the Twitter feed a posting that mentions that ALL of South Carolina's Republican congressmen voted against Federal aid for Sandy. The same tweet says that now we can show we're better than that. Sometimes karma's a hurricane.


The high road is always the better path, no matter how maddeningly infuriating it can be to let certain elements in our government appear to get away with their destructiveness. It's the only way things will ever improve.
10/4/2015. Hurricane Joaquin with 100 mph winds passing about 90 miles west of Bermuda and moving NNE at 14 mph. Tropical Storm force winds were reported across Bermuda and Hurricane force winds were reported on elevated sites of around 300 feet or more.Link
Quoting 80. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think the low is centered right off the Carolina/Georgia coast, that might explain it
Yeah, it's that ULL that was supposed to bring me some rain. You can see it on radar. Brings rain back across Georgia, stops it over Alabama, and resumes it again over central Florida. Sometimes I feel like I'm being punished for something in an earlier life. :-)
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

I heard that a yellow round ball rises into the sky and brings light with it.I.haven't seen it yet.Does anyone know what its called and will we ever see it again?

Here in Western Oregon in the fall and winter we often get weeks on end of grey drizzly weather so I don't feel very sorry for you. But at the moment it's clear and sunny, about 80 degrees.
Current ECMWF now shows Joaquin's extratropical remnant off the Iberian coast by next weekend. Previous runs had it running into the British Isles then pivoting north.

Same run of the Euro shows Oho headed towards the Pac NW by next weekend, absorbed into a Gulf of Alaska disturbance.
Quoting 65. SunnyDaysFla:



Maybe you maxed out your lifetime serving of disasters?
One can only hope, although I have done a good job of bringing ice and snow storms since I've been here. Maybe it's the winter of my life kind of thing.
Here comes the good stuff.
Quoting 87. sar2401:

Yeah, it's that ULL that was supposed to bring me some rain. You can see it on radar. Brings rain back across George, stops it over Alabama, and resumes it again over central Florida. Sometimes I feel like I'm being punished for something in an earlier life. :-)

I'd be a little concerned about that ULL aligning with the surface low at the tail end of that frontal boundary. Might that not pose a danger of a new tropical development?
Quoting 91. TimSoCal:



That sneaky ULL that dropped down thru California popped several isolated T-storms today, but failed to bring the humongous winds that had been predicted. Thankfully given the fire danger.
Nice symmetry.......but that's about it...

Quoting 94. Kowaliga:

Nice symmetry.......but that's about it...




The structure is good on radar, but seems to have lost steam.
With Joaquin the way he is looking now I think he may be starting to undergo the earliest stages of Extratropical transition.
There is serious flooding in Wilmington..

All one has to do is go to WWAY facebook page and see the residents of NHC videos and pictures..this isn't underwhelming for many people who live here..

There are neighborhoods with roads impassable and water reaching into homes..people are stranded in cars..my neighborhood itself has at least 4 roads impassable in wilmington..

Lets not downplay the situation..we didnt get it nowhere as bad as SC that much is true but Wilmington has gotten a lot of rain that will continue into tomorrow..

and lets not forget the rivers that are approaching major flood stages..this isnt over by a long shot for a lot of folks..

Apartments near UNCW..
Quoting 64. GreyJewel:

It has just started POURING again here in East Cooper (Charleston). Weather Alert from STORM app says another 3 inches or so coming.

The rain had backed off to the north, but a new train has apparently re-formed to rumble right over us again.

WHYYYY, Lord?

I've been told that the Lord told NOAA there's going to be a flood...

Also raining again, hard, in West Ashley (on the other side of Charleston from East Cooper).
Quoting 91. TimSoCal:

Here comes the good stuff.



Good to see you are getting some, not much over this way, YET?
Quoting 97. FunnelVortex:

With Joaquin the way he is looking now I think he may be starting to undergo the earliest stages of Extratropical transition.
I think it's just the typical post-Bermuda syndrome setting in. The storm probably has a couple of days of the wheels coming off before it really transitions to extratropical. Could happen earlier though, since Joaquin hasn't followed a lot of other rules during its life.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

I think I've told you this before, but you can go to Tropical Atlantic and look at the actual center fixes, along with the position of the storm in Google Earth. The storm is west of Bermuda and headed NNE. It took a short northerly jog two hours ago. That's as close to heading east that it's done. I get the feeling you're still a little peeved that the hurricane didn't hit you, and that the ECMWF and NHC turned out to be right. You can look at each little jiggle and jog if you like, but Joaquin is going to Ireland.

All will know the truth. Goodbye and good day.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

I think I've told you this before, but you can go to Tropical Atlantic and look at the actual center fixes, along with the position of the storm in Google Earth. The storm is west of Bermuda and headed NNE. It took a short northerly jog two hours ago. That's as close to heading east that it's done. I get the feeling you're still a little peeved that the hurricane didn't hit you, and that the ECMWF and NHC turned out to be right. You can look at each little jiggle and jog if you like, but Joaquin is going to Ireland.


I wouldn't give the ECMWF too much credit. It originally had JQ going further south below Bermuda.
Quoting 102. sar2401:

I think it's just the typical post-Bermuda syndrome setting in. The storm probably has a couple of days of the wheels coming off before it really transitions to extratropical. Could happen earlier though, since Joaquin hasn't followed a lot of other rules during its life.


To me it's starting to get that "look" to it
Quoting 85. MaineGuy:



The high road is always the better path, no matter how maddeningly infuriating it can be to let certain elements in our government appear to get away with their destructiveness. It's the only way things will ever improve.

But hoisting them on their own petards {what the heck is a petard, anyway?) seems soooo attractive
Quoting 104. FunnelVortex:



I wouldn't give the ECMWF too much credit. It originally had JQ going further south below Bermuda.
The ECMWF has my respect as been the best global model. And i think it will be getting and upgrade early next year? Can anyone confirm this?
Quoting 92. BayFog:


I'd be a little concerned about that ULL aligning with the surface low at the tail end of that frontal boundary. Might that not pose a danger of a new tropical development?
Doesn't look like it. The ULL hasn't shown any signs of transitioning to the surface, and the low on the stalled front looks like it will continue north along the front while ULL moves east out into the Atlantic. After watching Joaquin's antics, however, I've decided almost anything is possible this year.
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

The ECMWF has my respect as been the best global model. And i think it will be getting and upgrade early next year? Can anyone confirm this?
It's getting a huge computer upgrade, and will have the most powerful computer on the planet. I don't know about software.
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

The ECMWF has my respect as been the best global model. And i think it will be getting and upgrade early next year? Can anyone confirm this?


The CMC needs that upgrade more than the ECMWF does.
Quoting 110. sar2401:

It's getting a huge computer upgrade, and will have the most powerful computer on the planet. I don't know about software.


What's going to happen with the GFS? Will it be upgraded as well sometime?
Quoting 111. FunnelVortex:



The CMC needs that upgrade more than the ECMWF does.


What about the XTRAP? It's always horrible at long range!
Quoting 111. FunnelVortex:



The CMC needs that upgrade more than the ECMWF does.
It did get upgraded this year but it did not fix the crazy.
Quoting 110. sar2401:

It's getting a huge computer upgrade, and will have the most powerful computer on the planet. I don't know about software.
Nuclear power ECMWF ;)
Quoting 104. FunnelVortex:



I wouldn't give the ECMWF too much credit. It originally had JQ going further south below Bermuda.
Further south below Bermuda? I don't quite get that one.

The ECMWF wasn't perfect, just a lot more perfect than any other model. I don't have a storm in my memory that behaved as badly as Joaquin, and the fact it forecasted the amount of time Joaquin would spend in the Bahamas and the turn it would make when it started to leave the Bahamas alone was quite a model coup. It also stuck to its guns for five straight days while other models were jumping back and forth. I wouldn't give the ECMWF a 100% on this storm, but a solid 85% seems to be justified. Let's see, how should I grade the CMC?.... :-)
Quoting 114. Gearsts:

It did get upgraded this year but it did not fix the crazy.


They must have broke something...
Quoting 115. Gearsts:

Nuclear power ECMWF ;)
Just about. I think it's going from 2 to 16 petaflops, which are numbers up the thousands of billion of billions, way beyond my power to understand them, except they are really big.
Another downwelling kelvin wave.
Quoting 113. DurhamWeatherLover:



What about the XTRAP? It's always horrible at long range!


XTRAP is a dead model as far as I'm concerned.
I live down Hwy 133 and it is a mess. Still raining and the roads are flooding and water is everywhere. Guess it is bad in Wilmington also. I am supposed to be at work at 06:00 in the morning, but I am really thinking about driving up 133 in the dark with all the flooding. Will make up my mind in the morning. Take care out there in the Cape Fear area!
Quoting 107. ACSeattle:


But hoisting them on their own petards {what the heck is a petard, anyway?) seems soooo attractive


A petard is actually a bomb, meant to be set against a city wall in an attempt to break through during a siege. The fellows who had to haul these primitive explosives up to the wall, emplace and set them off were all too often "hoist(ed)" upwards by an inadvertent or ill-timed explosion.

So the phrase is an excellent way of saying "blown up by your own weapons."
Quoting 113. DurhamWeatherLover:



What about the XTRAP? It's always horrible at long range!


I can't tell if this is a joke or not..
1 in the Atlantic

Quoting 81. PlazaRed:


I'm wondering when was the last time there were 10 featured storms on the world map?
All this and the Indian Ocean is continuing very quiet!

Here's a bit about the French flooding:-

Violent storms and flooding have hit south-eastern France, killing at least 17 people with four more missing, officials say.

Link



Animation

Link
What happens when it is not safe to be on the roads, but businesses will not take employees off the street.
Case in point:
Yesterday my son who works for a well known telephone/cable company continued to be given installs, even though roads were flooding and rapidly closing (Charleston). Just because you can get into a neighborhood, does not mean you will be able to get out. He was reporting conditions to his supervisor - but was kept in the field. Eventually he came to a neighborhood where his work vehicle flooded, and while he waited for the tow, the water kept rising. (Swift water rescue was required later for this neighborhood. ) He was unable to get back to the office to pick up his personal vehicle (due to road flooding), so someone had to go and get him where the truck had been towed. Fortunately he had been scheduled off for today (Sunday) but tomorrow he is on duty again. Numerous calls, text etc to his supervisor to find out if they would be working has not resulted in a response. So tomorrow morning, I will be driving him from just outside of Summerville to West Ashley, where he will pick up a work vehicle.
So business owners - do the responsible thing. Do not put your workers at risk for that extra $$
Quoting 123. Articuno:



I can't tell if this is a joke or not..


It was a joke.
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:

I heard that a yellow round ball rises into the sky and brings light with it.I.haven't seen it yet.Does anyone know what its called and will we ever see it again?


The elders tell us that this indeed happened in the time before the memories of our oldest living residents. It was called the sun and the light from it cast something called a shadow. And, more wonderous still, its light was so strong people used a protectant denoted by SPF to pevent it from burning. And the skies around it were not gray but brilliant white. And some elders from the deep country far from our great cities tell us that the sky was even blue but our modern scientists say this is impossible with the particulate in the air now.. mie scattering produces white, not blue. Though if the particulate ever vanished Rayleigh scattering from the very molecules of the air would dominate and the sky would be bluish.
Quoting 126. SC29483:

What happens when it is not safe to be on the roads, but businesses will not take employees off the street.
Case in point:
Yesterday my son who works for a well known telephone/cable company continued to be given installs, even though roads were flooding and rapidly closing (Charleston). Just because you can get into a neighborhood, does not mean you will be able to get out. He was reporting conditions to his supervisor - but was kept in the field. Eventually he came to a neighborhood where his work vehicle flooded, and while he waited for the tow, the water kept rising. (Swift water rescue was required later for this neighborhood. ) He was unable to get back to the office to pick up his personal vehicle (due to road flooding), so someone had to go and get him where the truck had been towed. Fortunately he had been scheduled off for today (Sunday) but tomorrow he is on duty again. Numerous calls, text etc to his supervisor to find out if they would be working has not resulted in a response. So tomorrow morning, I will be driving him from just outside of Summerville to West Ashley, where he will pick up a work vehicle.
So business owners - do the responsible thing. Do not put your workers at risk for that extra $$


North Carolina labor law is very clear on this matter. Even if the Governor declares a state of emergency, employers can demand that people come to work and fire those who don't. I don't know about South Carolina.



What if the governor declares a "state of emergency" and asks everyone to stay off the roads?
It does not matter if state officials have declared a state of emergency and are advising people to stay off of the roads. The decision to stay open or to close, for its employees to remain at work or leave early, or for its employees to report to work or not during adverse weather conditions, is entirely up to each individual employer to make on its own.

Employment-at-Will
How an employer treats its employees during adverse weather conditions comes under the concept of "employment-at-will". This means that unless there is a specific law to protect employees or there is an employment contract providing otherwise, then an employer may treat its employees as it sees fit, and the employer can hire or discharge employees at the will of the employer for any reason or no reason at all.


The link containing this




http://www.nclabor.com/wh/fact%20sheets/adverse.h tm


note something is inserting a space between h and tm. Remove the
space when pasting into your browser

132. txjac
Quoting 126. SC29483:

What happens when it is not safe to be on the roads, but businesses will not take employees off the street.
Case in point:
Yesterday my son who works for a well known telephone/cable company continued to be given installs, even though roads were flooding and rapidly closing (Charleston). Just because you can get into a neighborhood, does not mean you will be able to get out. He was reporting conditions to his supervisor - but was kept in the field. Eventually he came to a neighborhood where his work vehicle flooded, and while he waited for the tow, the water kept rising. (Swift water rescue was required later for this neighborhood. ) He was unable to get back to the office to pick up his personal vehicle (due to road flooding), so someone had to go and get him where the truck had been towed. Fortunately he had been scheduled off for today (Sunday) but tomorrow he is on duty again. Numerous calls, text etc to his supervisor to find out if they would be working has not resulted in a response. So tomorrow morning, I will be driving him from just outside of Summerville to West Ashley, where he will pick up a work vehicle.
So business owners - do the responsible thing. Do not put your workers at risk for that extra $$


Have you checked the company's internet site, perhaps there is an internal one for employees, my company has one and many times this is where they post information for weather related closures.
I highly doubt he will be expected tomorrow.
Has he been in touch with other employees? If so, what will they be doing?
Quoting 118. sar2401:

Just about. I think it's going from 2 to 16 petaflops, which are numbers up the thousands of billion of billions, way beyond my power to understand them, except they are really big.


A Petaflop is a million billion floating point calculations per second. This is achieved by combining several hundred thousand chips each of which does a few tens of billions of calculations per second, together into one system which facilitates the communications through a high speed interconnect.

I've spent the past fifteen years getting (mostly successfully) this kind of stuff to work.
I'm out for the night..

Everyone in the flooded areas stay inside..don't venture out..and how bout those Panthers..4-0

From N Kerr and Castle Hayne Rd in Wilmington..via WECT

Quoting 123. Articuno:



I can't tell if this is a joke or not..
Obviously joke... surely everyone knows XTRAP means "extrapolation".
Looks like there might be more rain training back into the Carolinas.

Quoting 134. ncstorm:

I'm out for the night..

Everyone in the flooded areas stay inside..don't venture out..and how bout those Panthers..4-0

From N Kerr and Castle Hayne Rd in Wilmington..via WECT




This is a mile from me.....Havent seen it like this in a long time
Quoting 132. txjac:



Have you checked the company's internet site, perhaps there is an internal one for employees, my company has one and many times this is where they post information for weather related closures.
I highly doubt he will be expected tomorrow.
Has he been in touch with other employees? If so, what will they be doing?

One would think that a major communication company would have an internal website for employee info. I believe it is only management that he has been trying to reach. Curfew is until 7am, so we won't leave before that. Rain is much less than it was. I probably should not be worried much about this - just keep aware when driving.

Oh... and KEEP POUNDING
139. beell
Quoting 130. georgevandenberghe:



The elders tell us that this indeed happened in the time before the memories of our oldest living residents. It was called the sun and the light from it cast something called a shadow...


Stolen from the WU "fishless blog"

Your shadow is a confirmation that light has traveled nearly 93 million miles unobstructed, only to be deprived of reaching the ground in the final few feet thanks to you.

In Little River.Septic at the bottom end of my apartment complex is backing up,roofs are leaking.Our septic is about to go.What used to be a small field we walked the dogs on is now a small lake full of frogs.It is rapidly creeping up the the buildings at the end of the road.We are on the bottom level,built halfway into the hill, and water has been seeping in through the floor of the pantry for three days now.Been vacuuming it up with a shop vac once an hour.
Quoting 135. Forsaken:

Obviously joke... surely everyone knows XTRAP means "extrapolation".
Well, not everyone. We had people here not but a few days ago asking if Joaquin was going to follow the XTRP to whatever destination it was showing. They weren't kidding, but I assume this time it's a joke also.
Quoting 136. Grothar:

Looks like there might be more rain training back into the Carolinas.





i wounder if that low over FL has a ch of be comeing a sub tropical storm
Quoting 140. bittykitty:

In Little River.Septic at the bottom end of my apartment complex is backing up,roofs are leaking.Our septic is about to go.What used to be a small field we walked the dogs on is now a small lake full of frogs.It is rapidly creeping up the the buildings at the end of the road.We are on the bottom level,built halfway into the hill, and water has been seeping in through the floor of the pantry for three days now.Been vacuuming it up with a shop vac once an hour.
Sounds absolutely terrible. And here was getting annoyed because my coffee wasn't hot enough. I hope the rain ends soon and the water stops rising.
Quoting 142. Tazmanian:




i wounder if that low over FL has a ch of be comeing a sub tropical storm


nope
One of Bermudas webcam's are down conditions not looking too good...
Meanwhile in SC.
Quoting 144. bryanfromkyleTX:



nope


that all you have too say is nope what is your reson be hide this ?

Quoting 125. Grothar:




Animation

Link
Well... that just looks all sorts of horrible. Any good updated models on new rainfall? Been raining here again for a couple hours now. Worried about family heading to work in the morning.
Quoting 129. hydrus:


Amazing how relatively small and concentrated that area of the heaviest rain has been. We've now had the record 24 hour floods in Pensacola and Mobile in April, 2014, TS Bill in June, 2015, and now the North and South Carolina rains of September-October 2015. All have produced record rainfalls, not just for the day but, in some cases, for the entire month. Two were these "firehose" type events while one started with a TS but ended up being another "firehose" event before it was done. I don't remember this concentration of record events ever happening is so short a time before.
Quoting 143. sar2401:

Sounds absolutely terrible. And here was getting annoyed because my coffee wasn't hot enough. I hope the rain ends soon and the water stops rising.

Hot coffee we have :) 1950s era percolator,still kicking like brand new.Make a hotter cup than modern coffee makers.Highly recommend grabbing one if you see one.
Lots of people worse off..we got lucky.Can't shower or poop at home,but at least we aren't in a shelter.
Quoting 146. Climate175:

Meanwhile in SC.


If anybody here needs an ark, I noah guy.
152. beell
Hopefully, the dry slot associated with the upper low over northern Florida will limit the moist inflow. Probably not.



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0553
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 042024Z - 050224Z SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY IN AN AREA WITH SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST NC INTO CENTRAL SC, WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF HOURLY RAIN RATES ~2". RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS OF 4-5" HAVE A RECURRENCE INTERVAL OF 25-50 YEARS. IT LIES WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE, WHICH CONTINUES TO DRAW IN SOME OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN'S PERIPHERAL MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.7-2.3" IN THIS REGION PER GPS VALUES AND RECENT RAP FORECASTS, TWO SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY OCTOBER. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-45 KTS PER RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE 850-400 HPA MEAN WIND.

CAM GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6" DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE ONGOING RAIN IS FALLING. THIS WOULD COMPOUND EXISTING FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD ISSUES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS WITHIN RAP MASS FIELDS (850 HPA WIND, MUCAPE, AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE) THAT SOME SOUTHWARD SHIFT/REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS CIN REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING, THE RAIN BAND COULD MAKE GREATER PROGRESS INLAND, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. SOUTHERN REGION PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 20"+ HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS, CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEEDING HISTORIC RAIN EVENT RECORDS FOR THE CAROLINAS. CLOSE TO 30" OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS, JUST OVER HALF OF WHAT USUALLY FALLS IN A GIVEN YEAR. SOILS ARE SATURATED. AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3" WHERE CELLS TRAIN. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC. THIS AREA/INFORMATION WAS COORDINATED WITH SAB/NESDIS.

ROTH



Quoting 148. carolinabelle:


Well... that just looks all sorts of horrible. Any good updated models on new rainfall? Been raining here again for a couple hours now. Worried about family heading to work in the morning.

Not a forecast, just my observation, but the blue bands, which are the heaviest rains, appear to be decreasing, and the arc of precipitation looks like it's being lifted north and east of the coast. I don't know what the pros would say, but it looks hopeful to me.

Quoting 133. georgevandenberghe:



A Petaflop is a million billion floating point calculations per second. This is achieved by combining several hundred thousand chips each of which does a few tens of billions of calculations per second, together into one system which facilitates the communications through a high speed interconnect.

I've spent the past fifteen years getting (mostly successfully) this kind of stuff to work.

I am extremely impressed.
Quoting 107. ACSeattle:


But hoisting them on their own petards {what the heck is a petard, anyway?) seems soooo attractive


Actually it mean to blow ones self up...


hoist by one's own petard

(idiomatic) To be hurt or destroyed by one's own plot or device intended for another; to be "blown up by one's own bomb".

He has no one to blame but himself; he was hoisted by his own petard.

source: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/hoist_by_one's_own_ petard

Quoting 150. bittykitty:


Hot coffee we have :) 1950s era percolator,still kicking like brand new.Make a hotter cup than modern coffee makers.Highly recommend grabbing one if you see one.
Lots of people worse off..we got lucky.Can't shower or poop at home,but at least we aren't in a shelter.
Good attitude indeed. I've got one of those Keurig things. Very convenient, but it seems like my coffee's cold in five minutes. Minor problem compared to showering or pooping though. :-)
Joaquin is unwinding itself, looks like a broken slinky.
Reports of the several Bahama Islands completely obliterated. Many dead too according to reports.

Hurricane Joaquin Exits Bahamas; Several Islands 'Completely Obliterated'

Reports from the Bahamas in the wake of Hurricane Joaquin indicate that several islands are, in the words of one journalist, "completely obliterated." Photojournalist Eddy Rafael observed the devastation from the air Saturday morning as part of an assessment flight that included Long Island, San Salvador, Cat Island, Rum Cay and Crooked Island.

On Long Island, dozens of homes without roofs could be seen from the air, as well a freighter and numerous smaller boats that had been washed inland.

"The south of the island near Clarencetown was just obliterated,%u201D said Rafael. "People were running into the streets and making signals to land. You could see people tearing toward the airport ... thinking that we were going to head on to the airport. Which was kind of devastating; it really brought tears to your eyes that we couldn't come."

(MORE: Catastrophic Flooding in South Carolina)

Crooked Island was also "completely obliterated", said Rafael, with massive flooding and damage to homes. "It looks like Grand Cayman did when Hurricane Ivan came through," he said. "It's just stick and stones. I didn%u2019t see any people."

Many of the southern islands have an immediate need for food, water and sewage, according to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency. Several of the islands have seen persistent extreme flooding for days.

Numerous unconfirmed deaths were reported by satellite phone from survivors on the ground, Rafael says, but communications are sporadic as many of the islands are without power and residents are attempting to conserve sat phone batteries. An elderly man died during the storm, but it was not yet determined if that death was directly caused by the storm, according to the Associated Press.

(MORE: Check the Forecast for Joaquin)

The damage seemed to be confined to just a few specific areas. The Club Med resort on San Salvador was destroyed, Rafael reported, but the power station looked intact from the air, and the island of Exuma was "absolutely life as normal."

The Government of the Bahamas had terminated all watches and warnings as of Saturday for Joaquin, which battered the central Bahamas with strong winds, storm surge flooding and torrential rainfall. Picking up some speed as it moved northward, the storm exited the beleaguered islands Saturday, but such a prolonged period of intense hurricane conditions caused the massive flooding and loss of communications experienced by Rafael.

Debris, flooding and downed poles prevented another relief team headed by Long Island Member of Parliament Loretta Butler-Turner to land. The 8 a.m. flight was an attempt to assess the affected islands and determine how to deliver supplies. Butler-Turner plans to have the plane refuel in George Town, Exuma, before performing an aerial assessment of San Salvador and Rum Cay.

"This is my 26th year living here, and I have never seen this before," San Salvador resident Paul Turnquest told The Nassau Guardian. "This is the worst I've ever seen."

The organization HeadKnowles has gained more support for their efforts to distribute essential items to those in dire need, the Tribune also reports. Donation bins have been set up to collect gently used or new clothing and shoes, blankets, water, pet supplies and non-perishable food or snacks. They ask for people with trucks to pick up the donations and take them to the distribution center, where volunteers will package the items for shipment.

(MORE: Search for Missing Cargo Ship Continues)

Storm surge flooding and torrential rainfalls were documented on Long Island and Acklins. A Weather Underground personal weather station at Pitts Town, Crooked Island, reported winds up to 84 mph.

Authorities say they've been unable to make contact with Crooked Island, Long Island and Acklins because the storm knocked out cell service, the Tribune reported. There have been no reports of deaths on those islands, National Emergency Management Agency Capt. Stephen Russell told the Tribune.

Mobile customers in the affected central and southern Bahamas areas will be provided a free credit for cellphones by the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC). The company's command center remains open at its National Network Operations Center and it continues to monitor the effects of the hurricane, reports The Bahamas Weekly. When the conditions are less severe, the company will issue technical teams to begin service restoration.
Quoting 157. win1gamegiantsplease:

Joaquin is unwinding itself, looks like a broken slinky.


Some of the Bahama Islands have been wiped clean from Joaquin.
Quoting 133. georgevandenberghe:



A Petaflop is a million billion floating point calculations per second. This is achieved by combining several hundred thousand chips each of which does a few tens of billions of calculations per second, together into one system which facilitates the communications through a high speed interconnect.

I've spent the past fifteen years getting (mostly successfully) this kind of stuff to work.
Hah! I'm lucky to keep two laptops and a desktop working at the same time. It does show why what comes out of the models is sure a lot better, even with the occasional failures, than going back to the grease pencil and plastic map days. The storm I remember well from those days is Hurricane Betsy in 1965. It was a total fiasco, and no one knew where the hurricane was going for a while. No, I'll still take today.
I heard one report that the storm surge was over 15' via a tweet from a resident on a nearby island.
Evening, everyone.

Had to get my mind off of all the destruction and pain around here, so I flipped on the Rangers-Angels game this afternoon on TBS.

Being a life-long Dallasite, I'm happy to report the Rangers are the 2015 AL West Champs! I needed something to smile about today.

Still, I, along with millions of others, are emotionally exhausted from this calamity. Still several more inches possible around here. Praying the dry slot shuts off the faucet.
Quoting 157. win1gamegiantsplease:

Joaquin is unwinding itself, looks like a broken slinky.
It still has a decent central circulation, and the NHC held it at 100 mph at the 8:00 update. That being said, it's losing its deepest convection, and some dry air is getting in on the SW side. I don't know what it is about the latitude of Bermuda that makes storms weaken. I used to think it was just cooler water and shear, but the water is plenty warm (81.5 F) and the shear is less than 20 knots. Must be something else at that latitude. Maybe it's the Bermuda Triangle! :-)





Hopefully the SSTs will help...
Quoting 159. StormTrackerScott:



Some of the Bahama Islands have been wiped clean from Joaquin.


I don't doubt it, poor San Salvador got Joaquin coming in and Joaquin heading out.
Quoting 164. CaribBoy:


But the gfs keeps the rain NE, i guess is because of shear.
Quoting 165. win1gamegiantsplease:



I don't doubt it, poor San Salvador got Joaquin coming in and Joaquin heading out.


Many are dead according to the Bahamas Tribune although unconfirmed.
Quoting 163. sar2401:

It still has a decent central circulation, and the NHC held it at 100 mph at the 8:00 update. That being said, it's losing its deepest convection, and some dry air is getting in on the SW side. I don't know what it is about the latitude of Bermuda that makes storms weaken. I used to think it was just cooler water and shear, but the water is plenty warm (81.5 F) and the shear is less than 20 knots. Must be something else at that latitude. Maybe it's the Bermuda Triangle! :-)




Their latitude is very near ours (can't remember if it's Charleston's or Cape Hatteras', but somewhere in between), but we have the Gulf Stream. Both places can definitely see Cat 3-4 hurricanes, usually dry continental air or a trough bringing the storm up the coast shears it.

Fabian did whack Bermuda as a very formidable hurricane though, I think 120-125 mph
Quoting 166. Gearsts:

But the gfs keeps the rain NE, i guess is because of shear.


At least for now..

Let's just keep an eye on 91L and the next model runs and see how things evolve. A nice surprise / or miracle (lol) is still possible :)

Anyway it's good to see the SW trend :)
Heavy steady rain again in Bonneau, SC...Already close to 18" and counting since late Friday afternoon.
Quoting 169. CaribBoy:



At least for now..

Let's just keep an eye on 91L and the next model runs and see how things evolve. A nice surprise / or miracle (lol) is still possible :)

Anyway it's good to see the SW trend :)
I think i haven't seen a thunderstorm all year.
From the NWS in ILM, which covers NE South Carolina and SE North Carolina:

Briefing on Historic Flood Event [Link]

Spotter Reports [Link]

Another batch of heavy rain accompanied by gusty conditions is approaching the coast as we speak.

Quoting 171. Gearsts:

I think i haven't seen a thunderstorm all year.


Same here!!! What a year, so boring :/
CFS has an above average atlantic and la nina in july next hurricane season
There is a huge ongoing weather battle off the east coast of the US.
Southward shift in the models tonight.









"we're surrounded"
Quoting 174. wunderweatherman123:

CFS has an above average atlantic and la nina in july next hurricane season
Yep
179. SLU
From what we've been taught, these conditions promote extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons









180. beell


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0554
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
956 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN SC & SOUTHEAST NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 050156Z - 050756Z SUMMARY...RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS OF LATE. THE FLASH FLOOD EVENT APPEARS TO BE WANING ALONG THE SC/NC COAST.

DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS NEAR CHARLESTON SC AND WELL OFFSHORE MYRTLE BEACH ARE ALONG A TROUGH AND COASTAL FRONT WHICH APPEAR TO BE RECEDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE ST. AUGUSTINE FL, WHICH IS SHIFTING THE MOISTURE BAND/COMMA HEAD ALONG A MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTATION NEAR THE SC COAST. A LOOSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIES JUST OFFSHORE THE NC COAST AND IS TRYING TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL SC COAST. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO 50 MILES OFFSHORE THE ISLE OF PALMS SC DURING THE PAST HOUR, DESPITE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS TO THE CONTRARY.

SPC MESOANALYSES INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY IS SHIFTING MORE OFFSHORE WITH TIME, WHICH HELPS EXPLAIN THE DECREASE IN RAIN RATES -- RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, MLCAPES AND MUCAPES ARE 100-250 J/KG WITH 1000+ J/KG MUCAPES NOW 60 MILES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT THE EARLIER RAIN BAND WHICH WAS ALIGNED WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC HAS FADED, WITH THE NEW BANDS OFFSET TO THE SOUTH. STILL, INFLOW AT 850 HPA NEAR THE CURRENT BANDS IS BETWEEN 25-50 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WINDS.

THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3-5" REMAIN IN THE CARDS ALONG THE SC COAST, BUT CONSIDERING THE ABOVE FACTORS, THE GUIDANCE COULD BE TOO HIGH. CONSIDERING THE DISTANCE OFFSHORE THE INSTABILITY HAS RETREATED, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5" ARE POSSIBLE, SHOULD THE CONVECTION MAKE LANDFALL FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE SATURATED SOILS/CONTINUED FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION, USED THE POSSIBLE CATEGORY.

ROTH
181. SLU
Quoting 178. Gearsts:

Yep



Carbon copy of 2010. Gonna be an exciting build up to 2016.
Quoting 181. SLU:



Carbon copy of 2010. Gonna be an exciting build up to 2016.
CFS is a little more west with the warm waters on the MDR could be a crazy season for the islands and the Caribbean.
183. SLU
Quoting 182. Gearsts:

CFS is a little more west with the warm waters on the MDR could be a crazy season for the islands and the Caribbean.


I agree. The most favorable conditions are actually west of 50W. We could see a season like this:



20-11-6
Quoting 145. Camerooski:

One of Bermudas webcam's are down conditions not looking too good...

I don't think I've ever heard this one make the noise it's making. We've watched this cam for several storms.
Quoting 183. SLU:



I agree. The most favorable conditions are actually west of 50W. We could see a season like this:



20-11-6
I have the cat gif ready.
Joaquin's dénouement in progress...

Quoting 182. Gearsts:

CFS is a little more west with the warm waters on the MDR could be a crazy season for the islands and the Caribbean.
could be a landfall year as storms would stay weak until reaching the islands.. if steering has strong ridging, might be problematic. more curious to see the 2017 season if its neutral. will be telling if the active era is coming to an end or the past 3 seasons 2012-2014 have been anomalies
Quoting 150. bittykitty:


Hot coffee we have :) 1950s era percolator,still kicking like brand new.Make a hotter cup than modern coffee makers.Highly recommend grabbing one if you see one.
Lots of people worse off..we got lucky.Can't shower or poop at home,but at least we aren't in a shelter.
A much more bitter pot too though. I'm a fan of the Moka Express pots myself.
Joaquin is well south of her forecast point and is whipping Bermuda with a strong band.

Quoting 151. win1gamegiantsplease:



If anybody here needs an ark, I noah guy.


They brought Grothar's yacht out of dry dock?
Quoting 173. CaribBoy:



Same here!!! What a year, so boring :/
Careful... nature is a b*tch; You whine about it being dry, next comes historic flooding.
@ SLU, if that turns out to be an accurate depiction of next season, that Bermuda High looks like trouble. Especially for the gulf, or dare I say it...Florida.
Link

HURRICANE: Camera pole is down. Looking inside hole in the roof. Still streaming at 11:00pm
Quoting 191. Forsaken:

Careful... nature is a b*tch; You whine about it being dry, next comes historic flooding.
Him wanting rain won't make it rain.
Quoting 160. sar2401:

Hah! I'm lucky to keep two laptops and a desktop working at the same time. It does show why what comes out of the models is sure a lot better, even with the occasional failures, than going back to the grease pencil and plastic map days. The storm I remember well from those days is Hurricane Betsy in 1965. It was a total fiasco, and no one knew where the hurricane was going for a while. No, I'll still take today.


I was seven and only dimly remember Betsy. I started reading newspapers fall 1966.
Still pouring, blowing 30-40 easy
Quoting 190. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



They brought Grothar's yacht out of dry dock?


Well someone had to sail that thing!
Of course it'll be active next year because hubby is looking for a beach house down there (FL) I've warned him not to buy down there.Ain't nothing but trouble.
Quoting 189. Skyepony:

Joaquin is well south of her forecast point and is whipping Bermuda with a strong band.




But at least it spare Tiny Bermuda of a direct hit...even though they are taking a beaten but nothing compare to Fay, ....
Filling in with purple. The max is 208 cm meters of rain, as of my last look. Will the max reach 100 inches?

Quoting 189. Skyepony:

Joaquin is well south of her forecast point and is whipping Bermuda with a strong band.


Joaquin is a guy. Just saying. Anyways he us south of forecast point. The nhc needs to stop relying on models so much and use more critical skills.
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:

Reports of the several Bahama Islands completely obliterated. Many dead too according to reports.

Hurricane Joaquin Exits Bahamas; Several Islands 'Completely Obliterated'

Reports from the Bahamas in the wake of Hurricane Joaquin indicate that several islands are, in the words of one journalist, "completely obliterated." Photojournalist Eddy Rafael observed the devastation from the air Saturday morning as part of an assessment flight that included Long Island, San Salvador, Cat Island, Rum Cay and Crooked Island.

On Long Island, dozens of homes without roofs could be seen from the air, as well a freighter and numerous smaller boats that had been washed inland.

"The south of the island near Clarencetown was just obliterated,%u201D said Rafael. "People were running into the streets and making signals to land. You could see people tearing toward the airport ... thinking that we were going to head on to the airport. Which was kind of devastating; it really brought tears to your eyes that we couldn't come."

(MORE: Catastrophic Flooding in South Carolina)

Crooked Island was also "completely obliterated", said Rafael, with massive flooding and damage to homes. "It looks like Grand Cayman did when Hurricane Ivan came through," he said. "It's just stick and stones. I didn%u2019t see any people."

Many of the southern islands have an immediate need for food, water and sewage, according to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency. Several of the islands have seen persistent extreme flooding for days.

Numerous unconfirmed deaths were reported by satellite phone from survivors on the ground, Rafael says, but communications are sporadic as many of the islands are without power and residents are attempting to conserve sat phone batteries. An elderly man died during the storm, but it was not yet determined if that death was directly caused by the storm, according to the Associated Press.

(MORE: Check the Forecast for Joaquin)

The damage seemed to be confined to just a few specific areas. The Club Med resort on San Salvador was destroyed, Rafael reported, but the power station looked intact from the air, and the island of Exuma was "absolutely life as normal."

The Government of the Bahamas had terminated all watches and warnings as of Saturday for Joaquin, which battered the central Bahamas with strong winds, storm surge flooding and torrential rainfall. Picking up some speed as it moved northward, the storm exited the beleaguered islands Saturday, but such a prolonged period of intense hurricane conditions caused the massive flooding and loss of communications experienced by Rafael.

Debris, flooding and downed poles prevented another relief team headed by Long Island Member of Parliament Loretta Butler-Turner to land. The 8 a.m. flight was an attempt to assess the affected islands and determine how to deliver supplies. Butler-Turner plans to have the plane refuel in George Town, Exuma, before performing an aerial assessment of San Salvador and Rum Cay.

"This is my 26th year living here, and I have never seen this before," San Salvador resident Paul Turnquest told The Nassau Guardian. "This is the worst I've ever seen."

The organization HeadKnowles has gained more support for their efforts to distribute essential items to those in dire need, the Tribune also reports. Donation bins have been set up to collect gently used or new clothing and shoes, blankets, water, pet supplies and non-perishable food or snacks. They ask for people with trucks to pick up the donations and take them to the distribution center, where volunteers will package the items for shipment.

(MORE: Search for Missing Cargo Ship Continues)

Storm surge flooding and torrential rainfalls were documented on Long Island and Acklins. A Weather Underground personal weather station at Pitts Town, Crooked Island, reported winds up to 84 mph.

Authorities say they've been unable to make contact with Crooked Island, Long Island and Acklins because the storm knocked out cell service, the Tribune reported. There have been no reports of deaths on those islands, National Emergency Management Agency Capt. Stephen Russell told the Tribune.

Mobile customers in the affected central and southern Bahamas areas will be provided a free credit for cellphones by the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC). The company's command center remains open at its National Network Operations Center and it continues to monitor the effects of the hurricane, reports The Bahamas Weekly. When the conditions are less severe, the company will issue technical teams to begin service restoration.



My friends at Stella Maris on the Northern part of Long Island are okay. Conditions are much worse on the southern half of the island. Stella Maris has all buildings intact althouth there are trees down and some roof damage. Overall not as bad as Irene for them. The entire island has no power or external communications. They got this word out with sat phones. I post this so that people who have friends on the Northern part of Long Island can rest a little easier. The southern part has experienced cataclysmic damage.
port bermuda webcam looking thru hole in roof

Link
Quoting 182. Gearsts:

CFS is a little more west with the warm waters on the MDR could be a crazy season for the islands and the Caribbean.

After the boring NHC hype 2013, and boring 2014, 2015 has been so far, a pretty interesting season to say the least , and it seems more surprises are at stake....
Highest winds I'm seeing in Bermuda from the Wunderstations is a few gusts of 69mph in Hamilton.
Quoting 191. Forsaken:

Careful... nature is a b*tch; You whine about it being dry, next comes historic flooding.


A saying.. In dry years farmers complain about starving. In wet years farmers starve.
Quoting 204. HuracanTaino:


After the boring NHC hype 2013, and boring 2014, 2015 has been so far, a pretty interesting season to say the least , and it seems more surprises are at stake....


Boring is good!!!!!
Rain returns to Charleston.
Welcome to the Hotel Carolina. You can swim out anytime you like but the rain will never leave!



This was the forecast point for Joaquin 12 hours ago

12H 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

And the current position as of the 11 p.m. advisory

INIT 05/0300Z 33.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH


Joaquin is 0.3 degrees further north and 0.4 degrees further east of its forecast point.
211. CHSSw
I live in north charleston back by the ashley river and have been looking for information on if it is expected to flood. Unable to locate a good chart. Anyone know where to go to find out. They mentioned people in dorchester county living within a mile if the edisto should get out.
212. SLU
Quoting 192. win1gamegiantsplease:

@ SLU, if that turns out to be an accurate depiction of next season, that Bermuda High looks like trouble. Especially for the gulf, or dare I say it...Florida.


Yes it could be an ugly year for landfalling major hurricanes with the large looking ridge. The storms night pile up near the Bahamas where the pressures are lowest relative to normal and anything can happen after that.
Quoting 159. StormTrackerScott:



Some of the Bahama Islands have been wiped clean from Joaquin.


yes
yes they have
one of the most extreme environments possible
has just occurred ya all don't know
how many and how lucky you've been

good luck Bahamas lots of stuff too fix
Checking in from Charleston... raining again...damage everywhere around me... has anyone heard from Nash?? They were evacing his area last night...
216. IDTH
Quoting 212. SLU:



Yes it could be an ugly year for landfalling major hurricanes with the large looking ridge. The storms night pile up near the Bahamas where the pressures are lowest relative to normal and anything can happen after that.

Or it ends up like 2013 and the season doesn't make sense. Seriously that season was bizarre. 2016 though, I have a bad feeling.
Quoting 211. CHSSw:

I live in north charleston back by the ashley river and have been looking for information on if it is expected to flood. Unable to locate a good chart. Anyone know where to go to find out. They mentioned people in dorchester county living within a mile if the edisto should get out.


the people on the Edisto got phone calls...i know some people that live on it... NWS in Charleston
should be able to answer that question for you tho
Quoting 215. tiggeriffic:

Checking in from Charleston... raining again...damage everywhere around me... has anyone heard from Nash?? They were evacing his area last night...


He posted earlier, scroll down.
Quoting 215. tiggeriffic:

Checking in from Charleston... raining again...damage everywhere around me... has anyone heard from Nash?? They were evacing his area last night...


Nash was on earlier today
91L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 219. DaytonaBeachWatcher:



Nash was on earlier today



ty...that at least lets me know he is ok... this is nuts here...ready for the rain to stop....in a HUGE way
Quoting 157. win1gamegiantsplease:

Joaquin is unwinding itself, looks like a broken slinky.


But he still has a defined eye. His reign of terror is being whisked away along with him, but Bermuda needs to hang tight just a little bit longer...
I won't repost the radar image, but a band of weather capable of the rainfall rates and wind that we say across southeastern NC and the Myrtle Beach area early this afternoon is offshore, probably will arrive ashore around 1-2 AM.
I am a 5th generation Charlestonian and have come to this blog for 10 years to get my storm predictions. I finally registered to ask you fine people one thing.... Please do not see the "random" people that the news crews run across and assume that they represent the average IQ of the area.
I don't know whether to laugh, or cry, when I see these fools on TV.

I'm not the smartest cracker in the box but these interviews and videos blow my mind.

Yes, we have areas under water and a few trees down in West Ashley but it is what it is. No power for 18 hours wasn't great but it sure beats what baha and everyone on the Bahamas dealt with, and will continue to deal with, for days to come during the clean up.

8 dead thus far in SC Link]
226. SLU
Quoting 216. IDTH:


Or it ends up like 2013 and the season doesn't make sense. Seriously that season was bizarre. 2016 though, I have a bad feeling.


2013 almost cost many weathermen their meteorology careers including the CSU hurricane forecast team. It was really a strange season.
going to bed...if I say what I want I will get banned anyway...saving you the time Keeper
228. SLU
50kt winds in Bermuda

Quoting 213. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



yes
yes they have
one of the most extreme environments possible
has just occurred ya all don't know
how many and how lucky you've been

good luck Bahamas lots of stuff too fix


The Tar Heel state dodged a big bullet, regardless of what happens the next 24 hours and what has already taken place towards the SC state line. Like Florida will run out eventually, but a big sign of relief indeed.

Prayers to SC, the Bahamas, and those now in Bermuda.
Quoting 179. SLU:

From what we've been taught, these conditions promote extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons












Does the purple in Wind Anomaly and blue in Wind shear means thats good or bad for Hurricanes?
By the end of this week, the flooding in the Carolina's will be unprescedented. Dr, Jeff Masters has provided a great deal of inormation concerning climate change and it is beyond me how anyone can not see the forest through the trees concerning what is happening to our planets atmosphere. I also listen to NASA as opposed to uneducated media propaganda artists who are paid to support an agenda. NASA landed men on the moon and returned them safely to the earth, they also sent hundreds of space shuttle missions etc. etc. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that NASA can not only read a thermometer, but can also provide data based upon facts and logic. Within 1 year, everyone will understand exactly what is happening to our climate, except for those that live in denial.

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Quoting 227. tiggeriffic:

going to bed...if I say what I want I will get banned anyway...saving you the time Keeper

GN, Tigger. You can mumble bad words to yourself as you drift off... :-)
Autumn kicking up across the Pacific.
lol!!!!
Quoting 232. SandyCheeks13:



Does the purple in Wind Anomaly and blue in Wind shear means thats good or bad for Hurricanes?
The purple in wind anomaly means the flow will be less zonal than usual, which promotes tropical cyclone formation. The blue in wind shear is much lower wind shear than climatology. It's also for next July and appears to discount the possibility of El Nino continuing. I wouldn't take any of this seriously for now.
Quoting 235. BayFog:

Autumn kicking up across the Pacific.

Just a few gales out there. It should be about another month before the first big Pacific low hits. It should be one of many as we get into winter.
Quoting 227. tiggeriffic:

going to bed...if I say what I want I will get banned anyway...saving you the time Keeper



Hopefully you aren't referring to me. If I said something to offend you, I apologize but I stand by what I said.

We got a bunch of rain. The lower islands had 100+ mph winds sit on them for almost 2 days, along with the rain.

I was 15 when Hugo hit and stayed in my parent's house in the dreaded "shadowmoss".

Not to make lite of anyone's situation now, but this is a 2 day rainstorm.

Again, I apologize if I offended you or anyone else, I was mainly commenting on the people the news finds to interview.
Rainiest October on record before now at KCHS 12.11" in 1994. So far this month, 14.97" Records at KCHS go back to 1938.

How about KCXM, downtown Charleston going back to 1870?

Their wettest October was 11.74" in 1959.

KCXM has had 13.80" so far this month.


anyone watching invest 91L
Quoting 225. win1gamegiantsplease:

8 dead thus far in SC Link]
Like most rainstorms, people are going to get injured and killed in traffic accidents. If they'd just slow down...

I'll say one thing. The NWS and WPC had this one nailed from the start. It looks like the totals are mostly going to come in at very near the predictions of five days ago. Impressive.
Quoting 243. sar2401:

Like most rainstorms, people are going to get injured and killed in traffic accidents. If they'd just slow down...

I'll say one thing. The NWS and WPC had this one nailed from the start. It looks like the totals are mostly going to come in at very near the predictions of five days ago. Impressive.


They did. The ILM guys mentioned this focusing on SC when the landfall for Joaquin by us was the greatest likelihood as per the models with a "high certainty agreement." And the 12-16", locally over 18" is very close to what the actual numbers are.

Still waiting on this nasty looking batch still to our south. Still breezy and raining here, but in an hour or two it's looking to be as rough as it was around 2-3 PM today.
Quoting 240. JackRackham:



Hopefully you aren't referring to me. If I said something to offend you, I apologize but I stand by what I said.

We got a bunch of rain. The lower islands had 100+ mph winds sit on them for almost 2 days, along with the rain.

I was 15 when Hugo hit and stayed in my parent's house in the dreaded "shadowmoss".

Not to make lite of anyone's situation now, but this is a 2 day rainstorm.

Again, I apologize if I offended you or anyone else, I was mainly commenting on the people the news finds to interview.
I think everyone in a storm has their own perspective on how bad it was. I get what you're saying about the interviews. I'm in Alabama, and they seem to be able to home in on every slack-jawed yokel in the area to interview. Makes us all look like a bunch of uneducated morons.
Quoting 233. Steve536:

By the end of this week, the flooding in the Carolina's will be unprescedented. Dr, Jeff Masters has provided a great deal of inormation concerning climate change and it is beyond me how anyone can not see the forest through the trees concerning what is happening to our planets atmosphere. I also listen to NASA as opposed to uneducated media propaganda artists who are paid to support an agenda. NASA landed men on the moon and returned them safely to the earth, they also sent hundreds of space shuttle missions etc. etc. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that NASA can not only read a thermometer, but can also provide data based upon facts and logic. Within 1 year, everyone will understand exactly what is happening to our climate, except for those that live in denial.

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
All true, but those who understand science are already convinced. It's the ones that are blinded by ideology that won't ever be convinced by more science. It's going to take more events like we've had in the past couple of years before they even wonder if it might be true. Kind of like they don't put up gates at the railroad crossing until enough people have been killed.
Quoting 93. BayFog:


That sneaky ULL that dropped down thru California popped several isolated T-storms today, but failed to bring the humongous winds that had been predicted. Thankfully given the fire danger.


Fallon, we got some light stuff yesterday afternoon, then a half inch overnight (past midnight, so technically today.) Light steady rain now, after some gusty winds. Everyone's cheered up over this, except the goats. I'm kind of hoping whatever feeds into the PNWheel spins off more for us.
Quoting 242. hurricanes2018:



anyone watching invest 91L
I am. Looks great.
Quoting 242. hurricanes2018:



anyone watching invest 91L
Doing pretty good for an invest that has only 30 % for development in 5 days, and that Is in an area not particularly conducive for development accordingly to NHC, to me it looks close to TD status, already...
Quoting 211. CHSSw:

I live in north charleston back by the ashley river and have been looking for information on if it is expected to flood. Unable to locate a good chart. Anyone know where to go to find out. They mentioned people in dorchester county living within a mile if the edisto should get out.
This is the only stream gauge I could find for the Ashley. It does not give flood stage information. Your local EMA should be able to help you.

Destruction of Joaquin may help energize ULL (s) off Carolina coast.
Quoting 247. nonblanche:



Fallon, we got some light stuff yesterday afternoon, then a half inch overnight (past midnight, so technically today.) Light steady rain now, after some gusty winds. Everyone's cheered up over this, except the goats. I'm kind of hoping whatever feeds into the PNWheel spins off more for us.
My brother got 0.13" at his place in north Reno. Not bad for October 4 in the howling desert. Tonight and tomorrow morning looks like the end of the line for rain. Sunny and returning to slightly above normal temperatures by midweek. I'm supposed to see sun tomorrow. If so, it will be the first time in five days. In all those five days of clouds, I've gotten exactly no rain. Kind of depressing.
Quoting 140. bittykitty:

In Little River.Septic at the bottom end of my apartment complex is backing up,roofs are leaking.Our septic is about to go.What used to be a small field we walked the dogs on is now a small lake full of frogs.It is rapidly creeping up the the buildings at the end of the road.We are on the bottom level,built halfway into the hill, and water has been seeping in through the floor of the pantry for three days now.Been vacuuming it up with a shop vac once an hour.


If you have kitchen trash bags and cats (i.e. a bag of cat litter) consider: trash bag into a 5 gallon bucket; even unscrew your toilet seat (those plastic nuts and bolts are easy to remove) and place over bucket for comfort, or at least the illusion of comfort. One cup of kitty litter in the bag, do your thing, add another cup over top, knot bag shut and rebag bucket for the next person. It isn't great, but if the Fount of Wisdom isn't working for a day or two, it beats having to drive out to the nearest working toilet at 2am.

I've had to do extended septic repairs on this farm, and some slightly dodgy drain redirects during extended sub-32* freeze-ups. (Three years ago our actual submerged tank itself had a nice few inches of ice as a top layer.) I feel your discomfort.
Quoting 244. win1gamegiantsplease:



They did. The ILM guys mentioned this focusing on SC when the landfall for Joaquin by us was the greatest likelihood as per the models with a "high certainty agreement." And the 12-16", locally over 18" is very close to what the actual numbers are.

Still waiting on this nasty looking batch still to our south. Still breezy and raining here, but in an hour or two it's looking to be as rough as it was around 2-3 PM today.
Maybe this last batch will be it. You can really see how this mess is pinwheeling to keep a moisture connection to Joaquin. The storm is starting to accelerate now, and should be up to about 20 mph by morning, so that moisture tap may finally get turned off.

255. BDAwx
While it seems Bermuda avoided a direct hit and therefore widespread hurricane conditions from Joaquin, this strong band is raking the island with at least 60-70mph wind gusts and higher winds in areas exposed to southerly and southwesterly winds - certainly enough wind to cause problems with utility services and damage to vegetation.

Reports about two hours ago from RCC Bermuda Radio (Maritime Operations formerly Harbour Radio) in the east end on a mast at 290ft above sea level of 100kt gusts - this could be representative of the most extreme conditions on those hilltops exposed to southerly and southwesterly winds right now. The highest point in Bermuda is ~250feet above sea level. See BWS facebook page for additional updates and info.

My last check-in with those at home in Bermuda: lost electricity at ~9:30pm, house on generator power, now trying to get some rest.
Quoting 210. BaltimoreBrian:

This was the forecast point for Joaquin 12 hours ago

12H 05/0000Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

And the current position as of the 11 p.m. advisory

INIT 05/0300Z 33.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH


Joaquin is 0.3 degrees further north and 0.4 degrees further east of its forecast point.
That's about 20 miles off to the north and 28 miles off to the east. Doesn't seem like a great miss for 12 hours.
Quoting 211. CHSSw:

I live in north charleston back by the ashley river and have been looking for information on if it is expected to flood. Unable to locate a good chart. Anyone know where to go to find out. They mentioned people in dorchester county living within a mile if the edisto should get out.

You should be fine. The edisto will flood because of the water entering around orangeburg and above. It will continue to build as is comes down stream and adds more inflow. The Ashley river is a relatively short river, that ends not far above hwy 17A, so it does not get the massive inflow from the midlands like the other major rivers.
Quoting 256. sar2401:
That's about 20 miles off to the north and 28 miles off to the east. Doesn't seem like a great miss for 12 hours.
I pointed that out because some people were saying Joaquin was south of its forecast point and that wasn't true.
Quoting 252. sar2401:

My brother got 0.13" at his place in north Reno. Not bad for October 4 in the howling desert. Tonight and tomorrow morning looks like the end of the line for rain. Sunny and returning to slightly above normal temperatures by midweek. I'm supposed to see sun tomorrow. If so, it will be the first time in five days. In all those five days of clouds, I've gotten exactly no rain. Kind of depressing.


Yeah, and they're actually talking about snow above 9000 feet. That alone while not much is a grand reason to cheer.
Quoting 254. sar2401:

Maybe this last batch will be it. You can really see how this mess is pinwheeling to keep a moisture connection to Joaquin. The storm is starting to accelerate now, and should be up to about 20 mph by morning, so that moisture tap may finally get turned off.




Looks like it. It's hard to see it on that image, but there is a smaller line that looks pretty rough that'll be here before that bigger batch (yellow tops) which should arrive around sunrise. Expected to see 3-5" through tomorrow night with some showers early Tuesday before it all clears out, finally. That big batch should be affecting the Myrtle area soon though.

Alright I'm off to bed, I'm not on central time :p

Good night everyone
Quoting 245. sar2401:

I think everyone in a storm has their own perspective on how bad it was. I get what you're saying about the interviews. I'm in Alabama, and they seem to be able to home in on every slack-jawed yokel in the area to interview. Makes us all look like a bunch of uneducated morons.


Thank you SAR, I was mostly referring to the woman with the totinos pizzas, the guy that drove into the rapids on camera, and the guy that slept through the police banging on his door trying to evacuate the trailer park. (Columbia, but you get the point.
I have friends and family with damage from this rain, so I'm not scoffing at the amount of rain. I was merely saying that it could be much much worse, and is much much worse other places than the charleston metro.
Quoting 261. JackRackham:



Thank you SAR, I was mostly referring to the woman with the totinos pizzas, the guy that drove into the rapids on camera, and the guy that slept through the police banging on his door trying to evacuate the trailer park. (Columbia, but you get the point.
I have friends and family with damage from this rains on I'm not scoffing at the amount of rain. I was merely saying that it could be much much worse, and is much much worse other places than the charleston metro.


Before I hit the hay, reminds me of a Jeff Foxworthy joke:

Southerners are as smart as anyone in the country, our biggest problem is we can't seem to keep the most ignorant among us off the television. They never seem to interview the Southern doctor or lawyer, but manage to find the lady in a moo-moo with curlers in her hair.
Quoting 261. JackRackham:



Thank you SAR, I was mostly referring to the woman with the totinos pizzas, the guy that drove into the rapids on camera, and the guy that slept through the police banging on his door trying to evacuate the trailer park. (Columbia, but you get the point.
I have friends and family with damage from this rains on I'm not scoffing at the amount of rain. I was merely saying that it could be much much worse, and is much much worse other places than the charleston metro.
Ah, well, there have always been incidents like that. The difference is everyone now has a video recorder in their fist, so whatever you say or do is likely to be shown on the news. They generally don't put the things that make you look smart on the news. :-)

Yeah, it could have been a lot worse. Joaquin could have come through as a roaring cat 4 on top of all the rain. But that's kind of like telling people sitting in a damaged house after a 7.0 earthquake that it could have been worse if it was an 8.0 earthquake. It may be true, but it doesn't show a lot of empathy, if you know what I mean.
I remember a similar event in Maine in October 1996 Nearly 15" of rain fell in Portland, ME in 30 hours. Another report with fewer graphics and easier to load is here. I remember reading at the time that moisture from Hurricane Lili may have increased the rainfall by 20%, although I cannot remember the source for that, and have no idea of its validity.
Quoting 258. BaltimoreBrian:

I pointed that out because some people were saying Joaquin was south of its forecast point and that wasn't true.
Oh, got it now. Yes, it was clearly north, and has been on several points, as they've underestimated Joaquin's speed a little. I think people get a little fixated on forecast points anyway. If there something that's not an exact science, it's forecast points. If they are off by 20 miles in 12 hours, it doesn't mean the storm is about to take a big turn and head in another direction. At this point, there's no force I can conceive of that affects Joaquins trip to Ireland.
Quoting 198. washingtonian115:

Of course it'll be active next year because hubby is looking for a beach house down there (FL) I've warned him not to buy down there.Ain't nothing but trouble.
Usually the list that will be used next year have active seasons. ex 2010,2004,1998, 1992 was not active but was damaging , 1980. The only year that was not active was 1986. This list have feature a lot of cat 5 too. ex Allen, Andrew, Mitch. and Ivan. Igor is a toss up.
Always listen to the pros. Your local TV and radio station have facebook pages Im sure. You can get up to the minute detailed info on YOUR area. Weather underground is fantastic. As with all social media you can get the egotistical baffoon who only believes in his/her forecast for whatever agenda. LISTEN TO YOUR PROS
Quoting 264. BaltimoreBrian:

I remember a similar event in Maine in October 1996 Nearly 15" of rain fell in Portland, ME in 30 hours. Another report with fewer graphics and easier to load is here. I remember reading at the time that moisture from Hurricane Lili may have increased the rainfall by 20%, although I cannot remember the source for that, and have no idea of its validity.


In Maine? That's insane.
Quoting 262. win1gamegiantsplease:



Before I hit the hay, reminds me of a Jeff Foxworthy joke:

Southerners are as smart as anyone in the country, our biggest problem is we can't seem to keep the most ignorant among us off the television. They never seem to interview the Southern doctor or lawyer, but manage to find the lady in a moo-moo with curlers in her hair.


That's actually true, I have had two professors with strong southern accents, 1 in synoptic meteorology and another a math professor. If someone had them talking about eating southern food without any back round on them and who they are, people would immediately assume they are not intelligent. The worst part is, such prejudice often goes uncontested. It's not the first time I've seen intelligent loving people down south who are labeled with prejudice immediately as being racist, ignorant, bigoted rednecks just for being white people who like rural living and have southern accents.

I'm not southern by decent my self, I don't have an accent and my family descent is mostly french and welsh from Michigan, but it just bothers me how some people are often prejudiced
due to lazy generalizations.

Ok, it's a weather blog, I'm getting off topic, end rant, lol.
Is the ULL over the Southeast as it makes the Atlantic going to gain convection and work it's way down?
Quoting 271. DeepSeaRising:

Is the ULL over the Southeast as it makes the Atlantic going to gain convection and work it's way down?



Extremely unlikely it's a about as baroclinic text book as you're going to get. Which is why the deep moisture tap in the Carolinas is confined far from the center.

It has cold mid level temps that are anomalous for this time of year for that location. In fact, the upper energy rotating around the low combining with cold temps above the surface was enough to generate a rainy day out of a very hostile airmass over Central FL. My parents got thunderstorms and temps falling into the 60's with highs only in the 70's and 0.71 out an air mass with only 1.3 in PW.

When a low center as -15 C temps at 500 mb and short waves strong enough to force low topped convection with thunder and even small hail in the dry air mass. It has more in common with a winter storm or a massive Pacific Northwest low than a tropical system.

Here in Tallahassee, the experience of being under this low center this weekend has been overcast with temps well below normal and highs struggling to hit 70. Definitely not tropical, lol.
I thought Juaquin formed from an ULL??? Took days and days
It would need to work its way down, thus your question
Easy on the fox worthy jokes.Southerners come up with 66% of all inventions within the US.Joaquin is not gone yet! el nino has a way of causing meandering.either way do not say by until the low off east coast is gone .It seems they are attached at the hip and are not thru dancing.
Quoting 201. HurricaneAndre:

Joaquin is a guy. Just saying. Anyways he us south of forecast point. The nhc needs to stop relying on models so much and use more critical skills.

Good lord, didn't expect this... Joaquin has an eye again, with deeper convection and more tropical characteristics, it seems. What a "different" storm. :o

Jo
Good morning with a short update on the situation at the southeastern French Mediterranean Riviera after the catastrophic flooding Saturday evening (impressive gallery with photos from above here; another one here). The latest in English here:

Riviera draws breath after 'apocalyptic' floods
The Local (France), Published: 05 Oct 2015 08:16 GMT 02:00
Towns across the French Riviera were left counting the costs on Monday after devastating floods swept through the region leaving 17 dead, including one Briton, plus four missing as well as a trail of destruction. ...

Edit: Just saw it on twitter: Body of an 18th victim found (in Mandelieu).
Edit: Now deathtoll is at 19. No persons missing anymore: Source.

In French media you can read of arguments between politicians and "Meteo France" (their national weather service) about responsibilities. The former (f.e. the mayor of Nice) complain that the level of alert, set by the weather service, had only been on "orange" (to be vigilant of possible dangerous weather) which is set very often (so nobody earnestly cares), and not on red, which is rarely set and would have forced authorities to take preventive action accordingly. Meteo France defends itself saying that they don't have the means to predict exactly such very unusual amounts of rain and the precise region where it could fall (with the help of google there is a translation of one of those articles in the comment section of my blog).

Apart from the sad loss of human life and the widespread damage there is some focus on Marineland in Antibes, one of world's largest sea parks. The park was flooded as well. Due to the loss of power tropical fish died, and the mammals (sea lions, dolphins and so on) have a hard time to deal with the muddy water in their pools, see the video below. Of course, the park is now closed for the public.



Won't have much time today; have an as good as possible start into the new week, everyone!
Little addition: more unsettled weather on the way for France, this time in the atlantic area of Bordeaux (and in northern Portugal and Spain as well):


Saved from wetteronline.de






Forecast.
Quoting 276. barbamz:

Good morning with a short update on the situation at the French Riviera after the catastrophic flooding Saturday evening (impressive photo gallery from wetteronline here). The latest in English here:

Riviera draws breath after 'apocalyptic' floods
The Local (France), Published: 05 Oct 2015 08:16 GMT 02:00
Towns across the French Riviera were left counting the costs on Monday after devastating floods swept through the region leaving 17 dead, including one Briton, plus four missing as well as a trail of destruction. ...

In French media you can read of arguments between politicians and "Meteo France" (their national weather service) about responsibilities. The former (f.e. the mayor of Nice) complain that the level of alert, set by the weather service, had only been on "orange" (to be vigilant of possible dangerous weather) which is set very often (so nobody earnestly cares), and not on red, which is rarely set and would have forced authorities to take preventive action accordingly. Meteo France defends itself saying that they don't have the means to predict exactly such very unusual amounts of rain and the precise region where it could fall (with the help of google there is a translation of one of those articles in the comment section of my blog).

Apart from the sad loss of human life and the widespread damage there is some focus on Marineland in Antibes, one of word's larges sea parks. The park was flooded as well. Due to the loss of power tropical fish died, and the mammals (sea lions, dolphins and so on) have a hard time to deal with the muddy water in their pools, see the video below. Of course, the park is now closed for the public.



Won't have much time today; have an as good as possible start into the new week, everyone!


I CANNOT imagine those critters having to swim around in that mess
Meteo France seems like they are basisally saying " Its on you because we dont know whats gonna happen but something could"
Irresponsible IMHO
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
349 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

SCZ043>045-049-050-052-051600-
/O.NEW.KCHS.WI.Y.0003.151005T0749Z-151005T2100Z/
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-COASTAL COLLETON-
CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...
MONCKS CORNER...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...DANIEL ISLAND...
NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON
349 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER AND COLLETON
COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA.

* WINDS...15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* WIND IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED
GROUNDS FROM ONGOING FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
FALLING TREES TODAY. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* LAKE MOULTRIE...WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES OF 1 TO 2
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED...HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE LAKE. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD TOPPLE
RECREATIONAL CRAFT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR THE INTERNET
FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

$$
280. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
SAT imagery:: vFog, though the final product is not a NOAA product its a FTG filtered product.

IMAGES ARE NOT IN CORRECT ORDER


Been trying since last week to get 1 of 4 slideshow hosts to work on
WxU. All 3 can be embedded but each one has there personal @$#@! that causes problems. Picturetrail is
the simplest BUt as i think you'll see even though i uploaded each
image in order Picturetrail leaves a trail of an mal-ordered mess.
Wanna try yer hand at placing the images ion order on yer compu'r, go to its album (http://www.picturetrail.com/sfx/album/view/246774 06)  pg and dwnld each img. chow chow chow.

Those going through floods NEVER TRY TO CROSS WATERS THAT ARE COVERING AREAS NOT MEANT TO HOLD WATER (streets, sidewalks). As you will not know if there is a water covered hole just under the waters surface, that at beast will lead to a painful sprained ankle at worst you disappearing...
leftovers of td9 got mixed up with a weaken ull juiced up another low and that became joaquin
9 active tropical systems? I realize that 5 of them are invests, but isn't that still more than usual?
Quoting 243. sar2401:

Like most rainstorms, people are going to get injured and killed in traffic accidents. If they'd just slow down...

I'll say one thing. The NWS and WPC had this one nailed from the start. It looks like the totals are mostly going to come in at very near the predictions of five days ago. Impressive.


A refreshing positive comment regarding forecasts (and the models they use) What a feat to call this one ahead of time and good for the governor declaring state of emergency ahead of time.
seasons going out with a bang. long range gfs. trouble in the nw carib.
keep an eye on the vigorous ULL to the east of Florida. it has good signature all the way down to the 850mb vorticity with the strongest at the mid level. it is quite possible that this feature can wind it's way down to the surface, and have a new tropical entity. it is worth keeping an eye on in the future
Morning all. 2 second post -

A forecaster’s worst nightmare: Typhoon Mujigae intensifies to Cat 4 just before landfall
On Saturday, Typhoon Mujigae was forecast to hit Zhanjiang, China, about 200 miles west of Hong Kong, as a Category 1 storm. However, in the twelve hours before landfall, Mujigae surprised forecasters by rapidly intensifying from a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds to an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, and made landfall on the north side of the city of Zhanjiang near 1 am EDT Sunday (05 UTC.) An unexpected rapid intensification just before landfall in a heavily populated area is every hurricane forecaster's nightmare, and with Zhanjiang'a population being 7 million, there is the potential that Mujigae caused heavy loss of life and severe damage due to lack of preparedness for a Category 4 typhoon.

Sounds like what happened with Joaquin. How much of this RI can be attributed to warmer than average SSTs?
Quoting 258. BaltimoreBrian:

I pointed that out because some people were saying Joaquin was south of its forecast point and that wasn't true.

I left the link. At the time Joaquin was well south of his forecast point on that NOAA satellite loop you can turn the forecast points on. They move those forecast points around to keep them as correct as possible . Next time I'll screen shot it..
Quoting 276. barbamz:


In French media you can read of arguments between politicians and "Meteo France" (their national weather service) about responsibilities. The former (f.e. the mayor of Nice) complain that the level of alert, set by the weather service, had only been on "orange" (to be vigilant of possible dangerous weather) which is set very often (so nobody earnestly cares), and not on red, which is rarely set and would have forced authorities to take preventive action accordingly. Meteo France defends itself saying that they don't have the means to predict exactly such very unusual amounts of rain and the precise region where it could fall (with the help of google there is a translation of one of those articles in the comment section of my blog).


Sounds like there is enough blame to go around. 17 people dead - horrible. The damage to property was unavoidable - the lives lost may have been avoidable.
Thank you NWS for alerting us in SC as to what we might face.
in about 9 days or so, GFS has something about to come into the lower gulf...............
Quoting 292. Grothar:


[sigh]
Quoting 292. Grothar:





Grothar thats sposed to move on out
aint it?
interesting none the less
another mega ton of rain headed to ILM but at this point we can take it more so than SC
298. MahFL
Quoting 293. LargoFl:

in about 9 days or so, GFS has something about to come into the lower gulf...............


That's 14 days not 9.
299. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
SAT IMAGERY:: Mainly vFog (5 other types filtered into 1 FTG).
AOI:: Caribbean(East of)

cannot embed here, here's the link.
http://www.cinco.ly/~A4JAv8M0Zl1L

(have other styles incl timer, types of wipes but kept it simple for my sake.
Hope to upload more to this album till sunrise is over the area., so bookmark the url.
any word from the Bahamian islands heavily struck? I've been reading Tribune 242, suggests damage is very high but the death toll is thankfully very low.
Quoting 296. K8eCane:




Grothar thats sposed to move on out
aint it?
interesting none the less


It's quite sizeable and fast circulation. Not unlike the ULL which spawned JQ.
Quoting 301. Grothar:



It's quite sizeable and fast circulation. Not unlike the ULL which spawned JQ.

wow wonder if we will see more of these anomalies with climate change?
Nino 3.4 up to 2.4C & the ONI is up to 1.9C!

30SEP2015 23.4 2.8 27.6 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.1
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Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
754 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

NCC019-047-129-SCC041-043-051-067-089-051545-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-151005T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COLUMBUS NC-BRUNSWICK NC-NEW HANOVER NC-HORRY SC-MARION SC-
WILLIAMSBURG SC-FLORENCE SC-GEORGETOWN SC-
754 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBUS...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...HORRY...SOUTHWESTERN
MARION...WILLIAMSBURG...SOUTHERN FLORENCE AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES...

* AT 751 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CONTINUED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNED AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE ROTATING
ONSHORE AND MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RANGED BETWEEN 1 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES...AND
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH NOON...HIGHEST
NEAR CAPE FEAR. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE ONGOING FLOODING...AND
MAY LEAD TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MANY ROAD CLOSURES AND POSSIBLE ROAD WASHOUTS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...MYRTLE BEACH...CONWAY...NORTH MYRTLE
BEACH...LELAND... GEORGETOWN...OAK ISLAND...LAKE CITY...CAROLINA
BEACH...DEBORDIEU COLONY...SURFSIDE BEACH...SHALLOTTE...SUNSET
BEACH...KINGSTREE... WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...KURE BEACH...HOLDEN
BEACH...OCEAN ISLE BEACH... CASWELL BEACH AND BALD HEAD ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 413 AND 416.
INTERSTATE 140 US ROUTE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 421 AND 434.
US ROUTE 17 IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 44.
SC HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 24.
SC HIGHWAY 22 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 26.
Good Morning all.. Schools and most businesses have shut down today..We

Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 47m47 minutes ago

Just an awful set-up. Wilmington, NC in fire hose of rain today



We got almost 5 inches yesterday and another 3-5 inches expected today..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 637 AM MONDAY...RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION TREND WILL SEE A
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD...BUT VERY GRADUAL EASING OF RAIN RATES
ACROSS SC...WITH AN UPTICK IN RAIN INTENSITY OVER NC AND THE CAPE
FEAR REGION
. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KLTX SHOWS 40-50 KT
WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ANOTHER DAY OF FLOOD WARNINGS ANTICIPATED AS 3- 5 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL
INTERIOR...AND 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS OVER DEEPER INTERIOR LOCALS OF NE
SC AND SE NC.
TRENDS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TODAY...FROM SC INTO THE NC CAPE FEAR REGION. AS A RESULT
RESIDENTS IN NEW HANOVER...BRUNSWICK...PENDER AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES SHOULD MAINTAIN DILIGENCE IN THE PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING WOES AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
AFTER TODAY...A SIGNIFICANT TAPERING OFF OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A COLUMN DRYING TREND ON NORTH WINDS GETS UNDERWAY.

Here's the latest ONI data from ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, NCEP R1, & OISSTv2. The numbers from ERSST are impressive, which according to what I've looked @ thus far have been low outliers with this NINO event, horrendously underestimating the intensity of this NINO thus far & are closer to the un-interpolated/unadjusted IOCADSv2.5 dataset, which isn't surprising given their (poor) methodologies for handling real-time satellite data input. NCEP R1 is likely a bit closer to reality & the higher resolution, extremely reliable OISSTv2 dataset & what will likely be reported in short order by Kaplan Extended SSTv2, COBE SST, as well as HADISST next month with values approaching 1.9C, which would put us solidly into 2nd place for JAS since 1870. (only behind 1877-78) Thus, based on NCEP R1 & how well it has correlated to these aforementioned datasets, it appears likely that we'll reach or exceed 2.0C in ASO. This threshold has been surpassed only twice this early in the evolution of an El Nino event since the mid 19th century, of course during the 2 strongest events in the entire observational record... (1877-78 & 1997-98). It also is becoming increasingly likely that this El Nino will be classified as "Super", one of only *at most* 4 El Ninos (1877-78, 1888-89, 1982-83, 1997-98) since the mid 19th century to receive this prestigious distinction.

ERSSTv4 ONI (1990-Present)


ERSSTv3b ONI (1990-Present)



NCEP R1 ONI (1990-Present)



Reynolds OISSTv2 ONI (2000-Present)

Quoting 302. K8eCane:


wow wonder if we will see more of these anomalies with climate change?


These lower heights across SO Cal/SW Us and the Gulf/SE US I suspect is a result of El-Nino. This rain event across the Carolina's can be tied to this El-Nino pattern setting in. So with pattern already in place and El-Nino continuing to strengthen this better be a wake up call for those in California, Texas, & FL. going forward.
@Webberweather53 this El-Nino is beginning to make the 1997 ENSO look like a chump as there is a massive WWB ongoing and sea surface anomalies are beginning to respond with rapid rises over the past few days and I suspect Nino 3.4 might be closer to 2.6 right now and should reflect on next week's update. Just look @ how the 3C anomalies cover Nino 3.4 now.

Good Morning. Saw a twitter report (unconfirmed] that roof had been blown off museum in Bermuda. Maybe Lindy will give us a report today. Meanwhile port camera still working but has tilted.
Link
Quoting 307. StormTrackerScott:



These lower heights across SO Cal/SW Us and the Gulf/SE US I suspect is a result of El-Nino. This rain event across the Carolina's can be tied to this El-Nino pattern setting in. So with pattern already in place and El-Nino continuing to strengthen this better be a wake up call for those in California, Texas, & FL. going forward.


you are the expert here STS and I believe you
There is a round yellow object in the sky this morning.May someone tell me what it is please?
This is one of the largest El-Nino's I've ever seen with high anomalies reaching all the way to Nino 4 which Nino 4 expected to rise near 1.5C over the next few weeks. This is a huge sign that this El-Nino is going to strengthen a lot going forward and may eclipse 3C soon on the weekly values for Nino 3.4.




Nino 4 forecast
Quoting 308. StormTrackerScott:

@Webberweather53 this El-Nino is beginning to make the 1997 ENSO look like a chump as there is a massive WWB ongoing and sea surface anomalies are beginning to respond with rapid rises over the past few days and I suspect Nino 3.4 might be closer to 2.6 right now and should reflect on next week's update. Just look @ how the 3C anomalies cover Nino 3.4 now.




Hi Scott-
Can the 1,000 year weather event caused by that ULL in South Carolina be attributed to El Nino at this early stage? I'd hate to see the winter impact on Florida- among other states.
Quoting 313. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scott-
Can the 1,000 year weather event in South Carolina be attributed to El Nino at this early stage? I'd hate to see the winter impact on Florida- among other states.


I think you can make the relation because we've seen the last few month a high frequency of these cut off lows across the SW US & Gulf/SE US regions. High rainfall amounts in SO Cal during the Dry Season where rain is rarely seen, FL especially the west coast with rainfall amounts now exceeding 80" in the Tampa area for the year, and now S & N Carolina. These upper lows are responsible for transporting high moisture levels from the Tropics across these areas of the US.


How do I make this image larger?
Did anybody watch the Bermuda webcam last night? Last time I checked it had fallen onto a roof that had been partially ripped off a building.
way out in time but just something to follow and watch out for ........................
Complete destruction on several islands in the Bahamas. WOW!

Rum Cay
Quoting 298. MahFL:



That's 14 days not 9.
thanks,just something to watch for down the road..
This result of Storm Surge in San Salvador. I keep seeing reports that the storm surge was atleast 15' and as a result many are missing. May have been swept out to sea.

San Salvador Storm Surge pic. Look how how it got in this area!
Yeah...this should be fun for the southeast this winter. Ugh!



This Church was reportedly built in 1795. Fell to Joaquin.

Quoting 321. fmbill:

Yeah...this should be fun for the southeast this winter. Ugh!





Snow here in Summerville would be quite a treat for the kids. Chances good?
Ship lost @ sea appears to have Sunk. Pieces of the El-Faro keep washing ashore on Crooked Island & Long Island. 28 people on that ship were from the US.

Quoting 322. StormTrackerScott:

This Church was reportedly built in 1795. Fell to Joaquin.




Sad to lose something with such historic value.

Quoting 324. fmbill:

After destruction in Bahamas, relief efforts commence as Hurricane Joaquin threatens Bermuda




I'm interesting to see what was the true height of this storm surge. May have been as much as 20' in some areas for sure 10 to 15' from what I am seeing.
Quoting 321. fmbill:

Yeah...this should be fun for the southeast this winter. Ugh!






That's as high of a percentage of above normal as you can get across C & S FL.
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:



I'm interesting to see what was the true height of this storm surge. May have been as much as 20' in some areas for sure 10 to 15' from what I am seeing.

It's hard to tell without knowing the elevation of each area on each island.
Quoting 329. fmbill:


It's hard to tell without knowing the elevation of each area on each island.


That one building I posted was atleast 10' high.
AEI is nearing 4.50 again. This values is higher than the 1982 & 1997 @ their peaks. We've peaked @4.68 in July now its rising again after falling back the last 2 months.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 28m28 minutes ago
It's hard to argue against the idea that the current El Nino isn't "Super" via atmospheric response. >+4 sigma again
Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:

AEI is nearing 4.50 again. This values is higher than the 1982 & 1997 @ their peaks. We've peaked @4.68 in July now its rising again after falling back the last 2 months.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 28m28 minutes ago
It's hard to argue against the idea that the current El Nino isn't "Super" via atmospheric response. >+4 sigma again



It's going to be a wild winter in FL. Hopefully we get a little bit of a dry spell in October before the craziness starts.
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:



That's as high of a percentage of above normal as you can get across C & S FL.


I'm certainly in prep mode for this winter. I remember spending days in a mobile command post while we worked diligently to save several subdivisions in central Florida from flooding. Cold, wet, and relentless rain. Great cooperation by local and State partners, though.
Quoting 334. fmbill:



I'm certainly in prep mode for this winter. I remember spending days in a mobile command post while we worked diligently to save several subdivisions in central Florida from flooding. Cold, wet, and relentless rain. Great cooperation by local and State partners, though.


Before the last Super El Nino in 97-98, FL had a relatively dry summer and early fall. This time around, parts of C FL have had their wettest summer in recorded history, so the flooding rains that could come with this El Nino would be catastrophic. I'm at 70.50" of rain at my location year to date after 0.55" yesterday. Rained off and on all day long.
Quoting 335. tampabaymatt:



Before the last Super El Nino in 97-98, FL had a relatively dry summer and early fall. This time around, parts of C FL have had their wettest summer in recorded history, so the flooding rains that could come with this El Nino would be catastrophic. I'm at 70.50" of rain at my location year to date after 0.55" yesterday. Rained off and on all day long.


yeah, yesterday was a weird day. storms didn't look like much on radar but they'd come in and rain really hard for about 5-10 minutes and then in an hour or so another would come through.
Quoting 335. tampabaymatt:



Before the last Super El Nino in 97-98, FL had a relatively dry summer and early fall. This time around, parts of C FL have had their wettest summer in recorded history, so the flooding rains that could come with this El Nino would be catastrophic. I'm at 70.50" of rain at my location year to date after 0.55" yesterday. Rained off and on all day long.

'97/'98 was crazy.
Unprecedented flooding in Dec-Jan; Historic tornadoes in Feb; then it quit raining and didn't start again until late July, leading to epic wildfires.
Quoting 336. BobinTampa:



yeah, yesterday was a weird day. storms didn't look like much on radar but they'd come in and rain really hard for about 5-10 minutes and then in an hour or so another would come through.


Yeah, very strange. It would be clear and sunny for an hour, then some storms would race in off the Gulf for a few minutes. I tried to get some yard work done during one of the breaks and got drenched when some heavy rain came out of nowhere.
339. MahFL
The El Faro ship did sink, as per TWC. It was supposedly in the eyewall of the Cat4 hurricane, so it's not surprising, also it was a very old ship, that had been refurbished.
Just attempted the drive from Florence to Sumter,SC. Got within 7 miles of downtown Sumter and had to turn around. Conservatively 18-24" of moving water pouring across Hwy 76. Probably only gets worse as you get closer to downtown. Still raining and waters still rising. Turn around don't drown. Pretty much the scenario I envisioned is my car would have gotten swept into the torrent, wedged up against the trees and rapidly filled with water or flipped upside down. If I managed to get out of the car, my best option would have been to hold on to one of the tree trunks until I succumbed or was rescued.

I'm home watching Animal Planet with the kids.

Quoting 332. RitaEvac:








I hope 91L stays out of the Bahamas. Even a rainy tropical wave would be terrible.

lagoon water level is very high but no where near as high as it was in november 1994. e cen fl.
Quoting 340. HaoleboySurfEC:

Just attempted the drive from Florence to Sumter,SC. Got within 7 miles of downtown Sumter and had to turn around. Conservatively 18-24" of moving water pouring across Hwy 76. Probably only gets worse as you get closer to downtown. Still raining and waters still rising. Turn around don't drown. Pretty much the scenario I envisioned is my car would have gotten swept into the torrent, wedged up against the trees and rapidly filled with water or flipped upside down. If I managed to get out of the car, my best option would have been to hold on to one of the tree trunks until I succumbed or was rescued.

I'm home watching Animal Planet with the kids.




Stay safe
91L
there is no guarantee that this winter will be bad in cen fl. look at the amount of tropical storms there been. nothing is set in stone.
This does NOT look like a typical El Nino Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season.
This does NOT look like a typical El Nino Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season.


nor does the rain event in so carolina....well....at least if you consider climatology.....

Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:

AEI is nearing 4.50 again. This values is higher than the 1982 & 1997 @ their peaks. We've peaked @4.68 in July now its rising again after falling back the last 2 months.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 28m28 minutes ago
It's hard to argue against the idea that the current El Nino isn't "Super" via atmospheric response. >+4 sigma again



Hey guys what is AEI ? thanks
It sure appears the Government in the Bahamas under estimated the size of this storm surge. We may never know the true height of it but it appears this Storm Surge might have been near Katrina levels on some of the islands. Also I heard from the company of this ship out of JAX and the reason why they went out there is they were following the NHC intensity which only said Joaquin @ would peak @ 65mph before turning north. The company went on to say that they sail thru Tropical Storms all the time with no issues @ all. This time around the intensity was unexpected.
Quoting 317. LargoFl:

way out in time but just something to follow and watch out for ........................
Looks like a Cat 1 hurricane that comes up through the Carib. Very possible considering it's october.. But if this did happen it could be stronger, those Carib.waters are untouched and very warm...
Quoting 349. SlabTown:



Hey guys what is AEI ? thanks


Atmospheric Enso Index. A value that high is unprecedented.
Quoting 349. SlabTown:



Hey guys what is AEI ? thanks


Atmospheric Enso Index
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

There is a round yellow object in the sky this morning.May someone tell me what it is please?

Unconfirmed at this moment, but scientists believe it may be some sort of stellar reactor. More details later as they come in...
Quoting 339. MahFL:

The El Faro ship did sink, as per TWC. It was supposedly in the eyewall of the Cat4 hurricane, so it's not surprising, also it was a very old ship, that had been refurbished.


Very sad. I was afraid that is what likely happened.
Quoting 348. ricderr:

This does NOT look like a typical El Nino Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season.


nor does the rain event in so carolina....well....at least if you consider climatology.....




We've seen lower height from SO Cal to the SE US for several months. These lower heights across the southern US compared to high heights up north is related to El-Nino. You also have to remember this isn't your run of the mill El-Nino either. This will likely peak higher than 1997 especially with such a powerful WWB in progress which is why the AEI is back up to near 4.50 sigma.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 4m4 minutes ago

Historic #Flooding: Water Rescues Ongoing as Crews Search Door to Door; 8 Killed:
Blunders:
1) labeling the current South Carolina rains as 1 in 1000 year event. That was yesteryear. The ocean's hotter. We'll find henceforth that these rains are common.
2) labeling certain geniuses as "1 in 100 years". Such a label assumes population is constant, whereas we humans are populating the planet exponentially. (And just think, in the year 3000AD the mass of humans will equal the mass of the earth. Gosh, I don't want to be in the middle!)
Hey guys what is AEI ? thanks

it's a formulation that michael ventrice and his pay weather service....WSI..... made up...you won't find it used by NOAA or other weather experts
Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:

It sure appears the Government in the Bahamas under estimated the size of this storm surge. We may never know the true height of it but it appears this Storm Surge might have been near Katrina levels on some of the islands. Also I heard from the company of this ship out of JAX and the reason why they went out there is they were following the NHC intensity which only said Joaquin @ would peak @ 65mph before turning north. The company went on to say that they sail thru Tropical Storms all the time with no issues @ all. This time around the intensity was unexpected.


The company obviously didn't keep up with it's intensity.
Quoting 362. 69Viking:



The company obviously didn't keep up with it's intensity.


It was too late as the ship was already in Joaquin. He blew up fast went much further south than expected too. Caught the ship off guard and @ that point it was too late. There was also many that never evacuated across some of these hardest hit areas and that may have been fatal for many as the storm surge appeared to have crested very high.
https://icons.wxug.com/data/wximagenew/c/canelane23N 75W/14-thumb.jpg















Quoting 362. 69Viking:



The company obviously didn't keep up with it's intensity.


Sadly Joaquin underwent rapid intensification - not even the NHC kept up with its intensity (wasn't forecast to rapidly intensify).
Quoting 365. Envoirment:



Sadly Joaquin underwent rapid intensification - not even the NHC kept up with its intensity (wasn't forecast to rapidly intesify).


Or go that far south. Caught many off guard and as a result we might have a high death toll on our hands. Also the storm surge pics I'm seeing are impressive. That storm sat for 48hrs and piled up the sea water on the southern end of Long Island & Crooked Island.

I'm sure it was pure hell dealing with Joaquin on these islands






Crooked Island is as it sounds, unfortunately.

Quoting 359. LambertDW:

Blunders:
1) labeling the current South Carolina rains as 1 in 1000 year event. That was yesteryear. The ocean's hotter. We'll find henceforth that these rains are common.
2) labeling certain geniuses as "1 in 100 years". Such a label assumes population is constant, whereas we humans are populating the planet exponentially. (And just think, in the year 3000AD the mass of humans will equal the mass of the earth. Gosh, I don't want to be in the middle!)


The trend for the mass of individual humans is worrisome too.


Joaquin's visit to Crooked Island...
Quoting 362. 69Viking:



The company obviously didn't keep up with it's intensity.
And it did intensify rapidly. Over shooting tops in the eyewall would suggest almost explosive intensification...

From CIMSS..



Quoting 355. LoneStarWeather:


Unconfirmed at this moment, but scientists believe it may be some sort of stellar reactor. More details later as they come in...


Powered by fusion. Not the cold kind.
Closer shot of Joaquin moving between Long and Crooked Islands..

Quoting 365. Envoirment:



Sadly Joaquin underwent rapid intensification - not even the NHC kept up with its intensity (wasn't forecast to rapidly intensify).


Still, it didn't go from TS to Cat 4 in 20 seconds. It seems to me the company said "Ok, it's only a tropical storm, get going" and then just didn't do any further monitoring of the system.
TWC is a joke sometimes. They had the Top 5 rainfall records for 24hrs on there and none from FL, Louisiana, or Alabama. Not to take anything from S & N Carolina but there have been higher 24hr totals else where across the South especially those near the Gulf.

Yankeetown, FL with 38" from Elena in 85
Pensacola with 21" in 2014

Mobile has had some notable numbers up there & Louisiana with Betsy in 65
Quoting 373. rwdobson:



Still, it didn't go from TS to Cat 4 in 20 seconds. It seems to me the company said "Ok, it's only a tropical storm, get going" and then just didn't do any further monitoring of the system.


Again they were already in that area as the storm dived SW which wasn't predicted to go as far south as it did. The ship was just caught up in Joaquin and it was too late to react.
Quoting 375. ncstorm:





Feelin it NC
Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:

It sure appears the Government in the Bahamas under estimated the size of this storm surge. We may never know the true height of it but it appears this Storm Surge might have been near Katrina levels on some of the islands. Also I heard from the company of this ship out of JAX and the reason why they went out there is they were following the NHC intensity which only said Joaquin @ would peak @ 65mph before turning north. The company went on to say that they sail thru Tropical Storms all the time with no issues @ all. This time around the intensity was unexpected.


That may have been the status when the left port but don't they check up on the latest as they sail? Sounds like someone is trying to blame the NHC for a major mistake and then possible engine trouble which kept them from being able to sail around the storm? Just my 2 cents.
Quoting 378. DogtownMex:



That may have been the status when the left port but don't they check up on the latest as they sail? Sounds like someone is trying to blame the NHC for a major mistake and then possible engine trouble which kept them from being able to sail around the storm? Just my 2 cents.


Again they were already in the area when Joaquin arrived. They left Monday night from JAX so they were there already. Joaquin did the unexpected as it dived SSW and exploded in intensity. It was like a bomb went off inside Joaquin.
There is no doubt in my mind this is the last time we'll see the name Joaquin.And for those complaining about "boring" year just remember it could have been you.2015 isq far from over
CG stated in their press conf--ship sailed from JAX on Tuesday. I followed closely all the releases from NHC on this storm. Since SE coast was in sights from long while. They stressed how the forecast was low confidence ----so many parts that much uncertainty.

Doesn't really matter now what any of us 'thinks' Just seems very LITTLE Value placed on human life----shame.



Quoting 381. Tigerosee:

CG stated in their press conf--ship sailed from JAX on Tuesday. I followed closely all the releases from NHC on this storm. Since SE coast was in sights from long while. They stressed how the forecast was low confidence ----so many parts that much uncertainty.

Doesn't really matter now what any of us 'thinks' Just seems very LITTLE Value placed on human life----shame.






Shipping company needed to meet it's profit margin, and do anything it takes to meet it.
Quoting 382. RitaEvac:



Shipping company needed to meet it's profit margin, and do anything it takes to meet it.


To their defense they stated they sailed thru Tropical Storms with 60 to 65mph winds before which is what the NHC had @ the time. Also they NHC did not have Joaquin that far south in the Bahamas. So once the El-Faro arrived it was too late to get out as the storm was quickly intensifying and moving SW right @ them with no way out.
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

There is a round yellow object in the sky this morning.May someone tell me what it is please?


It is the heat engine that warms the atmosphere and brings more rain. would some one please check to see if she is smiling or if I should run
I believe the ship accident had more to do with greed than forecast error.
Quoting 381. Tigerosee:

CG stated in their press conf--ship sailed from JAX on Tuesday. I followed closely all the releases from NHC on this storm. Since SE coast was in sights from long while. They stressed how the forecast was low confidence ----so many parts that much uncertainty.

Doesn't really matter now what any of us 'thinks' Just seems very LITTLE Value placed on human life----shame.






That was irresponsible on your part. The shipping company didn't set out to put their crew in harms way. Sometimes things like this happen and there's nothing we can do as Joaquin was very erratic.
388. SLU
Coast Guard believes missing cargo ship has sunk

DEVELOPING -- The U.S. Coast Guard was in a desperate search Monday to locate any survivors of a cargo ship that likely sank in a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday.

Crews found human remains near the ship's last known whereabouts, according to the Coast Guard. The El Faro had 28 Americans and five Polish nationals on board when it lost power near raging Hurricane Joaquin.

“We’re not gonna discount somebody’s will to survive, and that’s why we’re still searching today,” said Capt. Mark Fedor, chief of response for the Coast Guard 7th District.

Search crews received multiple reports of immersion suits, lifeboats and life rafts in the water on Sunday, but hopes were dashed at every turn.

"In one of the survival suits there were human remains," Fedor said.

Search crews have so far spotted two debris fields, one large field in the ship's last known position and another about 60 miles north. Both areas are being searched using three Coast Guard cutters, three commercial tugs and several aircraft. It was a Navy P-8 aircraft flying at 27,000 feet on Sunday that spotted the largest debris field during a mission that covered 70,000-square nautical miles.

Fedor confirmed that there were two lifeboats and 46 survival suits on the El Faro. One of the lifeboats has been located with "no signs of life." Fewer than a handful of the survival suits have been found, Fedor said.

The ship vanished Thursday en route to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida as Joaquin slammed the Bahamas.

Officials said they received notification that the ship had lost power around 7 a.m. ET Thursday near Crooked Island in the eastern Bahamas, one of the islands most battered by the storm. The 33 people aboard the El Faro had to abandon ship and try to survive in treacherous conditions.

"I don't know what the master was thinking or what his company told him," Fedor said.

The El Faro was carrying 294 trailers and automobiles in its hold, in addition to the 391 shipping containers above deck, as it battled 20 to 30 foot seas, according to Fedor.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Quoting 373. rwdobson:



Still, it didn't go from TS to Cat 4 in 20 seconds. It seems to me the company said "Ok, it's only a tropical storm, get going" and then just didn't do any further monitoring of the system.


Once Joaquin turned SW and bombed out they had no where to go.
Quoting 386. StormTrackerScott:



That was irresponsible on your part. The shipping company didn't set out to put their crew in harms way. Sometimes things like this happen and there's nothing we can do as Joaquin was very erratic.


Its not hard for ships to avoid tropical cyclones, this is no way is anyone's fault but the company and captain's.
Storm Front Weather ‏@StormFrontWX Oct 3 Boston, MA
#Shocking image of home washed away by extreme surge and winds in #SanSalvador #Bahamas from #Joaquin
392. MahFL
Quoting 378. DogtownMex:



That may have been the status when the left port but don't they check up on the latest as they sail? Sounds like someone is trying to blame the NHC for a major mistake and then possible engine trouble which kept them from being able to sail around the storm? Just my 2 cents.


The engine trouble was likely from the storm, so by then the ships fate was sealed.
Quoting 355. LoneStarWeather:


Unconfirmed at this moment, but scientists believe it may be some sort of stellar reactor. More details later as they come in...


The scientists have spoken. [Link]
Quoting 389. StormTrackerScott:



Once Joaquin turned SW and bombed out they had no where to go.




Here is the NHC forecast track from the day they steamed out of Jax. No way they should be inside that forecast cone. It was forecasted to be a hurricane.
Quoting 390. VAbeachhurricanes:



Its not hard for ships to avoid tropical cyclones, this is no way is anyone's fault but the company and captain's.


I heard they went into the Bahama Chain to avoid Joaquin as Joaquin was expected to stay out of the Bahamas but then turned SW toward them and then it was to late to get out. This was per the TWC & CNN reports. You guys on here on quick to blame the Captain.
Quoting 394. VAbeachhurricanes:





Here is the NHC forecast track from the day they steamed out of Jax. No way they should be inside that forecast cone. It was forecasted to be a hurricane.


Again they went inside the Chain to avoid Joaquin but he turned and went thru the Central Bahamas.
Quoting 396. StormTrackerScott:



Again they went inside the Chain to avoid Joaquin but he turned and went thru the Central Bahamas.


Again the Bahamas are in the cone so thats idiotic.
The El Faro left Jacksonville on Tuesday headed in a southeasterly direction toward Puerto Rico. Here is the location and forecast path for Joaquin at the time El Faro set sail:



The ship's captain elected to maintain a direct path north and east of the Bahamas, a path which even on Tuesday promised to bring his ship uncomfortably close to the center of Hurricane Joaquin, as seen on this ship tracking map:



Now, even had the captain not known about Joaquin at the time he left Jacksonville, he certainly should/would have known by Wednesday morning when he was still hundreds of miles away that he was going to intercept a developing hurricane:



So, while the facts will come out later, I find it preposterous at this time to blame the ship's sinking on inadequate warning from NOAA and the NHC. Rather, it appears that the captain, a very experienced one by all counts, gambled his ship, crew, and cargo that he'd be able to skirt by on Joaquin's "weaker" southwest side.

It would seem he lost that gamble.
399. MahFL
They found empty immersion suits, which indicates the ship went down quick, or capsized. Possibly the ships captain delayed the abandon ship, who knows.
Quoting 396. StormTrackerScott:



Again they went inside the Chain to avoid Joaquin but he turned and went thru the Central Bahamas.
Quoting 397. VAbeachhurricanes:



Again the Bahamas are in the cone so thats idiotic.


Ships are supposed to use the Mariner's 1-2-3 for guidance, that is a "danger area" of 100, 200, and 300 nautical miles for forecasts in the 1, 2, and 3 day respectively. The Bahamas were in the shaded area.
Stop coming to their defense Scott.!!!! There is no defense. These ships have very advance electronics to monitor conditions in real time, they had plenty of warning that they needed to change course!

Quoting 383. StormTrackerScott:



To their defense they stated they sailed thru Tropical Storms with 60 to 65mph winds before which is what the NHC had @ the time. Also they NHC did not have Joaquin that far south in the Bahamas. So once the El-Faro arrived it was too late to get out as the storm was quickly intensifying and moving SW right @ them with no way out.
Just saw on breaking news that they've recovered a body from the ship. Sad. This was negligence by the shipping company. They should be sued.
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:

TWC is a joke sometimes. They had the Top 5 rainfall records for 24hrs on there and none from FL, Louisiana, or Alabama. Not to take anything from S & N Carolina but there have been higher 24hr totals else where across the South especially those near the Gulf.

Yankeetown, FL with 38" from Elena in 85
Pensacola with 21" in 2014

Mobile has had some notable numbers up there & Louisiana with Betsy in 65
Good morning Scott..Many times the rainfall measurements in hurricanes are underestimated due to the wind. I believe some hurricanes the U.S. has had would measure well over 50 inches.
....
Quoting 406. hydrus:

Good morning Scott..Many times the rainfall measurements in hurricanes are underestimated due to the wind. I believe some hurricanes the U.S. has had would measure well over 50 inches.


Also gauges fail or get overwhelmed by the shear volume of rain, which is common in heavy rainfall events.
Quoting 406. hydrus:

Good morning Scott..Many times the rainfall measurements in hurricanes are underestimated due to the wind. I believe some hurricanes the U.S. has had would measure well over 50 inches.


The wettest storm to strike the CONUS was Amelia in 1978 which dumped 48 inches
Quoting 401. tropicofcancer:

Stop coming to their defense Scott.!!!! There is no defense. This ships have very advance electronics to monitor conditions in real time, they had plenty of warning that they needed to change course!




Even us armchair Mets. could easily see on Wed. that Joaquin was not only rapidly intensifying but moving SW at a steady pace. I agree the captain gambled that he would be able to slip by to the west of the storm and lost. The fact that it was a 700+ ft long ship made him feel invincible, I would guess. Pure hubris in my opinion.
Anyone wishing death and destruction on a population of people have serious issues..

This is why our society is in the state it's in...
So, while the facts will come out later, I find it preposterous at this time to blame the ship's sinking on inadequate warning from NOAA and the NHC. Rather, it appears that the captain, a very experienced one by all counts, gambled his ship, crew, and cargo that he'd be able to skirt by on Joaquin's "weaker" southwest side.

It would seem he lost that gamble.



no one is mentioning that the ship reported they had no propulsion.....at this point there is nothing but conjecture....and it might very well be that way after an investigation is underway...however...there are reports that if it had maintained power...all would have been good
Quoting 411. ncstorm:

Anyone wishing death and destruction on a population of people have serious issues..

This is why our society is in the state is in...


It seems most people who wish death and destruction on here do it simply because of some (usually political) agenda.
Quoting 376. StormTrackerScott:



Again they were already in that area as the storm dived SW which wasn't predicted to go as far south as it did. The ship was just caught up in Joaquin and it was too late to react.


The storm didn't dive SW, it was forecast to go SW and did so for a couple of days. These ships have radar and contact with weather officials, it's not like it had rapid intensification over the top of the ship. No company should send a ship in the direction of a tropical system that might strengthen, just plain stupid. We all knew it had the potential for rapid intensification based on past storms in that area.
One of my co-workers... her husband was on that ship. Her, her sister and her mother all work with me. Her mother is a supervisor. Her and her sister are both great people, never call in sick, great attitude, work extra shifts if needed, close family ties. Yeah...there's kids.

This REALLY stinks.
416. MahFL
Quoting 412. ricderr:

...there are reports that if it had maintained power...all would have been good


The storm likely caused the engine problems, so the ship was doomed. You hear all the time " the ship lost power" and everyone assumes it was nothing to do with the storm they were in, which is most of the time incorrect.
Quoting 415. aquak9:

One of my co-workers... her husband was on that ship. Her, her sister and her mother all work with me. Her mother is a supervisor. Her and her sister are both great people, never call in sick, great attitude, work extra shifts if needed, close family ties. Yeah...there's kids.

This REALLY stinks.


My spouse works with a co-worker who was related to someone who was on the ship. Small world. Very sad.
Quoting 415. aquak9:

One of my co-workers... her husband was on that ship. Her, her sister and her mother all work with me. Her mother is a supervisor. Her and her sister are both great people, never call in sick, great attitude, work extra shifts if needed, close family ties. Yeah...there's kids.

This REALLY stinks.


Lets hope that most of them got into another life boat. My heart goes out to the families.
Quoting 376. StormTrackerScott:



Again they were already in that area as the storm dived SW which wasn't predicted to go as far south as it did. The ship was just caught up in Joaquin and it was too late to react.


The storm was moving at like 5-6 mph. It's not like it was a fast moving storm that overtook them.
Quoting 407. SC29483:


WOW

From where do you hail, Oracle?


Why even try to engage in discourse with someone who appears to be so unable to do so?
Quoting 420. LongIslandBeaches:



Why even try to engage in discourse with someone who appears to be so unable to do so?

Good point. Thanks for the reminder. In fact, I think I will delete that post.
422. josF
Thank you,Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Quoting 414. 69Viking:



The storm didn't dive SW, it was forecast to go SW and did so for a couple of days. These ships have radar and contact with weather officials, it's not like it had rapid intensification over the top of the ship. No company should send a ship in the direction of a tropical system that might strengthen, just plain stupid. We all knew it had the potential for rapid intensification based on past storms in that area.

I hope that it wasn't money first, the reason to send this people towards the nose of an intensifying cyclone,,,they should investigate...

I know it is early to worry about this. Would the Euro model be out this early? Does anyone have access to that?
TIA
Quoting 424. SC29483:


I know it is early to worry about this. Would the Euro model be out this early? Does anyone have access to that?
TIA


This is close

Reminds me of the Edmund Fitzgerald where 29 were lost....has to be the worst catastrophe since then, if not worse.
Quoting 426. largeeyes:

Reminds me of the Edmund Fitzgerald where 29 were lost....has to be the worst catastrophe since then, if not worse.


Unfortunately no. There have been many far far worse weather related or caused shipping accidents in the past 40 years.

Quoting 424. SC29483:


I know it is early to worry about this. Would the Euro model be out this early? Does anyone have access to that?
TIA


Link

This is what I look at the Euro with. The 00 UTC does not develop 91L at all. 12 UTC run comes out in a few hours...

Edit: after seeing Gro's post I should of said the operational run does not develop it apparently some of the Ensemble memebers do.
Quoting 410. DogtownMex:



Even us armchair Mets. could easily see on Wed. that Joaquin was not only rapidly intensifying but moving SW at a steady pace. I agree the captain gambled that he would be able to slip by to the west of the storm and lost. The fact that it was a 700+ ft long ship made him feel invincible, I would guess. Pure hubris in my opinion.


No experienced captain would be comfortable just because his ship was 700+ feet long. Such ships are vulnerable too and are MORE vulnerable to long period large swell.
Quoting 427. georgevandenberghe:



Unfortunately no. There have been many far far worse weather related or caused shipping accidents in the past 40 years.




I was thinking mostly in the American shipping industry. Obviously some others were far worse either in life or environmental destruction.
Quoting 428. DogtownMex:



Link

This is what I look at the Euro with. The 00 UTC does not develop 91L at all. 12 UTC run comes out in a few hours...
Thank you. Though I was not able to follow the link in FF, I was able to in Chrome. Much appreciated!

Quoting 387. LargoFl:


Does this depicted storm originate in the NW Caribbean?
Quoting 432. Wunderwood:

yes. Then forms into a TS and then a Cat 1 off the coast of FL...
Quoting 429. georgevandenberghe:



No experienced captain would be comfortable just because his ship was 700+ feet long. Such ships are vulnerable too and are MORE vulnerable to long period large swell.


Okay, but long period swells are associated with storms that are some distance away. My guess is that the 30 ft seas (?) were in the 10 to 12 sec period wind swell range. Anyway regardless of the exact surface conditions it was pure captain error and had nothing to do with the NHC failure to forecast Joaquin's track correctly. Rapid intensification obviously caught them trying to slip by but if they had been pay attention on Wed. morning they would have chosen to go to the west of the Bahamas altogether. My guess is that would have caused a delay, cost more money whatever.
Quoting 431. SC29483:

Thank you. Though I was not able to follow the link in FF, I was able to in Chrome. Much appreciated!


The link works in any browser as long as you remove the leading http// part. You can get the same version of Euro but with more display options at Tropical Tidbits, which has virtually any reliable model you'll need. It's also commonly called "Levi's site" after Levi Cowan, a really smart guy who owns the site and is a member here. He also produces videos as a big storm approaches and leaves that have excellent information that's detailed and accurate. It's a good way to offset some of the chowderhead stuff you'll read here. Tropical Tidbits should be your go-to site for any tropical weather information.
Will it be a path like the J storm?
Quoting 433. Camerooski:

yes. Then forms into a TS and then a Cat 1 off the coast of FL...
Link
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:

TWC is a joke sometimes. They had the Top 5 rainfall records for 24hrs on there and none from FL, Louisiana, or Alabama. Not to take anything from S & N Carolina but there have been higher 24hr totals else where across the South especially those near the Gulf.

Yankeetown, FL with 38" from Elena in 85
Pensacola with 21" in 2014

Mobile has had some notable numbers up there & Louisiana with Betsy in 65
Just to correct the record, the 38.50" 24hr rainfall total at Yankeetown, FL was from Hurricane Easy in 1950, not Elena in '85. I believe that is also a 24 hour rain record for all of Florida as well. LinkLink
Quoting 437. SecretStormNerd:

Will it be a path like the J storm?


The "storm" you are referring to is appearing on the GFS model runs about 14 days out. As such, there is zero reason to think about it beyond maybe a passing glance at the model runs. The blog is finally readable again, and please let's not start another asinine back and forth about how the next swirl of clouds will develop into a Cat 5 monster and hit Lauderdale by the Sea.
440. viman
Where is CaribBoy ??? :)
Quoting 424. SC29483:


I know it is early to worry about this. Would the Euro model be out this early? Does anyone have access to that?
TIA
12:07 p.m. Monday: Evacuations are underway in the Wildewood, South Carolina, area, just north of Columbia, after Beaver Dam gave way.
Quoting 441. aquak9:

12:07 p.m. Monday: Evacuations are underway in the Wildewood, South Carolina, area, just north of Columbia, after Beaver Dam gave way.


It just keeps getting worse!
Quoting 440. viman:

Where is CaribBoy ??? :)



91L won't do anything... it's a bust.
444. SLU
30 degree SSTs and 70% RH values should keep 91L firing convection in spite of the 25kt wind shear that will prevent it from developing.

445. csmda
SC sure took a beating :( I hope they can get some serious relief soon.
I can hear the thunder now... a first in 2015!

cam 1

cam 2



Quoting 434. DogtownMex:



Okay, but long period swells are associated with storms that are some distance away. My guess is that the 30 ft seas (?) were in the 10 to 12 sec period wind swell range. Anyway regardless of the exact surface conditions it was pure captain error and had nothing to do with the NHC failure to forecast Joaquin's track correctly. Rapid intensification obviously caught them trying to slip by but if they had been pay attention on Wed. morning they would have chosen to go to the west of the Bahamas altogether. My guess is that would have caused a delay, cost more money whatever.
I've been reading back through the posts. It seems like there are a lot of assumptions about what might or might not have happened to the El Faro. The only things we know for sure are that the Coast Guard has found enough debris associated with the ship to qualify as a debris field. At that point, there's a high probability the ship has sunk, and the search changes to a much more intensive search for survivors. The weather has cleared, and that search has better chances of success now. The Coast Guard has recovered one set of remains that was in a survival suit. That at least means the crew, or at least some of the crew, had time to don survival suits before the ship sunk. That's a hopeful sign for survival chances.

That's all we really know. We don't know the exact course of the ship, what the weather was exactly like at the time of the sinking, the condition of the ship at sailing, the loading of the ship at sailing, what mechanical problems the ship had at the time of the sinking, or what the crew did and how they reacted. It's really a lot like an aircraft crash. None of us were there, and everything beyond what I listed is pure speculation. The Coast Guard has a formula of how long a person could could survive in the water unassisted. They will continue to search for live survivors until such time as the formula tells them that survival has fallen to an extremely low order of probability. That time is not now.

The El Faro was an American flagged ship. That means the Coast Guard and other US maritime agencies will conduct a detailed investigation much like the NTSB does after an aircraft crash. What blame there is will be assessed by that investigation. It's way too early to blaming the company, the skipper, the NHC, the weather, or anything else except it was a ship on the ocean, and sometimes, regardless of best efforts, ships sink. I'm just waiting and hoping that some members of the crew did survive in the relatively warm waters of the Bahamas and that they will still be found.
Quoting 414. 69Viking:



The storm didn't dive SW, it was forecast to go SW and did so for a couple of days. These ships have radar and contact with weather officials, it's not like it had rapid intensification over the top of the ship. No company should send a ship in the direction of a tropical system that might strengthen, just plain stupid. We all knew it had the potential for rapid intensification based on past storms in that area.

I agree! What gets me is why on earth a captain would sale his ship anywhere near a tropical storm or hurricane with 33-people on board. Anybody with half a brain would try to avoid such conditions. I don't believe they got cought off guard. This Hurricane did not just pop up over night. Again, NO BRAINS! UGH!
Quoting 439. tampabaymatt:



The "storm" you are referring to is appearing on the GFS model runs about 14 days out. As such, there is zero reason to think about it beyond maybe a passing glance at the model runs. The blog is finally readable again, and please let's not start another asinine back and forth about how the next swirl of clouds will develop into a Cat 5 monster and hit Lauderdale by the Sea.
I never once said any of that, all I said is that the GFS had it coming out of the Carrib.
Quoting 317. LargoFl:

way out in time but just something to follow and watch out for ........................
looking at the way the scenario is looking on that potential I believe this is possible. especially with this potential MJO coming over the Atlantic basin by next week
Even the Coast Guard is saying that they shouldn't have knowingly traveled into tropical weather, didn't specify a strength of storm. And it's not like they couldn't see the storm intensifying and dropping south west. I've been following this story closely and there will obviously be an investigation, multiple ones. I don't want to say it is 100% the captains fault because he may very well have been just following orders. The ship was built to work in the waters off of Alaska, so it was a tank. But there was a reason it lost propulsion and more than likely it wasn't a random happening, probably caused by declining conditions and the engine having to work too hard. Joaquin was not racing south west, it was moving extremely slow. There was no excuse to charge a ship knowingly into a storm that was heading for you and strengthening. And those were known facts for both the company and the captain.
gfs forecasting a tropical low to cross florida at 276 hrs or so wow!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs%uFFFDion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015100 51 2&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0
Quoting 447. sar2401:

I've been reading back through the posts. It seems like there are a lot of assumptions about what might or might not have happened to the El Faro. The only things we know for sure are that the Coast Guard has found enough debris associated with the ship to qualify as a debris field. At that point, there's a high probability the ship has sunk, and the search changes to a much more intensive search for survivors. The weather has cleared, and that search has better chances of success now. The Coast Guard has recovered one set of remains that was in a survival suit. That at least means the crew, or at least some of the crew, had time to don survival suits before the ship sunk. That's a hopeful sign for survival chances.

That's all we really know. We don't know the exact course of the ship, what the weather was exactly like at the time of the sinking, the condition of the ship at sailing, the loading of the ship at sailing, what mechanical problems the ship had at the time of the sinking, or what the crew did and how they reacted. It's really a lot like an aircraft crash. None of us were there, and everything beyond what I listed is pure speculation. The Coast Guard has a formula of how long a person could could survive in the water unassisted. They will continue to search for live survivors until such time as the formula tells them that survival has fallen to an extremely low order of probability. That time is not now.

The El Faro was an American flagged ship. That means the Coast Guard and other US maritime agencies will conduct a detailed investigation much like the NTSB does after an aircraft crash. What blame there is will be assessed by that investigation. It's way too early to blaming the company, the skipper, the NHC, the weather, or anything else except it was a ship on the ocean, and sometimes, regardless of best efforts, ships sink. I'm just waiting and hoping that some members of the crew did survive in the relatively warm waters of the Bahamas and that they will still be found.

We are all hoping they find survivors soon Sar... terrible tragedy no matter how or why it happened...
Quoting 447. sar2401:

I've been reading back through the posts. It seems like there are a lot of assumptions about what might or might not have happened to the El Faro. The only things we know for sure are that the Coast Guard has found enough debris associated with the ship to qualify as a debris field. At that point, there's a high probability the ship has sunk, and the search changes to a much more intensive search for survivors. The weather has cleared, and that search has better chances of success now. The Coast Guard has recovered one set of remains that was in a survival suit. That at least means the crew, or at least some of the crew, had time to don survival suits before the ship sunk. That's a hopeful sign for survival chances.

That's all we really know. We don't know the exact course of the ship, what the weather was exactly like at the time of the sinking, the condition of the ship at sailing, the loading of the ship at sailing, what mechanical problems the ship had at the time of the sinking, or what the crew did and how they reacted. It's really a lot like an aircraft crash. None of us were there, and everything beyond what I listed is pure speculation. The Coast Guard has a formula of how long a person could could survive in the water unassisted. They will continue to search for live survivors until such time as the formula tells them that survival has fallen to an extremely low order of probability. That time is not now.

The El Faro was an American flagged ship. That means the Coast Guard and other US maritime agencies will conduct a detailed investigation much like the NTSB does after an aircraft crash. What blame there is will be assessed by that investigation. It's way too early to blaming the company, the skipper, the NHC, the weather, or anything else except it was a ship on the ocean, and sometimes, regardless of best efforts, ships sink. I'm just waiting and hoping that some members of the crew did survive in the relatively warm waters of the Bahamas and that they will still be found.


You're right SAR I am making a lot of assumptions. I'll just shut up and wait for more info, nuf said.
Quoting 405. VAbeachhurricanes:



Darn straight, the real culprits of climate change, South Carolina, are getting their due reckoning.


R U kidding me!! Really!!
If the National Hurricane Center does not retire the name Joaguin, I will eat my hat.
Quoting 405. VAbeachhurricanes:



Darn straight, the real culprits of climate change, South Carolina, are getting their due reckoning.


You are an Idiot!!
460. viman
Looks like Dominica may be in for a rough ride again.

Quoting 444. SLU:

30 degree SSTs and 70% RH values should keep 91L firing convection in spite of the 25kt wind shear that will prevent it from developing.


perhaps over the next week and a half we should keep an eye on this 91 coming across the atlantic..12Z GFS is kinda worrisome with it coming into south florida then up the state,back into the atlantic, nearing SC end of run..lots of time to watch this, and track will change run to run,hopefully it will die out.
Quoting 452. knightwarrior41:

gfs forecasting a tropical low to cross florida at 276 hrs or so wow!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs%uFFFDion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime =2015100 51 2&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0
No, the 06z GFS showed a storm crossing Cuba and the Bahamas at 373 hours. Those are different than Florida. The 12z GFS shows a much weaker storm crossing Florida at 348 hours. All of those times are known as the "Future", which is a time we don't know anything about. Maybe you can get the details right and belay the "wow!"part in your next post.
Um....you must have me confused with another blogger, which I will not name. I was asking an educated question because I am looking for an educated answer. I don't live in Ft. Lauderdale btw. If you can't provide me an answer, simply keep scrolling and stop comparing me to the wish casters on the blog. Thanks!
Quoting 439. tampabaymatt:



The "storm" you are referring to is appearing on the GFS model runs about 14 days out. As such, there is zero reason to think about it beyond maybe a passing glance at the model runs. The blog is finally readable again, and please let's not start another asinine back and forth about how the next swirl of clouds will develop into a Cat 5 monster and hit Lauderdale by the Sea.
Quoting 455. DogtownMex:



You're right SAR I am making a lot of assumptions. I'll just shut up and wait for more info, nuf said.
Sorry, Dogtown, that was not directed specifically at you, just a general observation.
He was referring to me. Which coincidently, those words have never come out of my keyboard on this blog. Ever.
Quoting 449. Camerooski:

I never once said any of that, all I said is that the GFS had it coming out of the Carrib.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Over the years since the millennium, seems October is fairly active month whether it's just weak systems with flooding rains to full blown Canes. Seemed like once October rolled in, the season was winding down, now it's "look the hell out" time every year in October it seems.
Quoting 461. LargoFl:

perhaps over the next week and a half we should keep an eye on this 91 coming across the atlantic..12Z GFS is kinda worrisome with it coming into south florida then up the state,back into the atlantic, nearing SC end of run..lots of time to watch this, and track will change run to run,hopefully it will die out.
Yes, a lot of people will keep an eye on 91L. The storm on shown on the GFS, however, does not come from 91L but from a low originating somewhere in the Gulf of Panama. Conditions for 91L does not look good right now, which is probably why the NHC has a 10%/20% chance of development. That's down from a 10%/30% at 5:00 am.
Quoting 466. SecretStormNerd:

He was referring to me. Which coincidently, those words have never come out of my keyboard on this blog. Ever.


I didn't refer to either of you, actually. I was simply making a general plea.
Quoting 459. SCwannabee:



You are an Idiot!!

Psst. He was being sarcastic.
Quoting 461. LargoFl:

perhaps over the next week and a half we should keep an eye on this 91 coming across the atlantic..12Z GFS is kinda worrisome with it coming into south florida then up the state,back into the atlantic, nearing SC end of run..lots of time to watch this, and track will change run to run,hopefully it will die out.
Thats something completely different than 91L, they have 91L recurving OTS, the hurricane over FL is a new system that we should watch. :)
473. MahFL
Quoting 447. sar2401:

...We don't know the exact course of the ship, what the weather was exactly like at the time of the sinking, the condition of the ship at sailing, the loading of the ship at sailing...


All those are known, eg, the Coast Guard said the ship was fully loaded, with containers on deck and vehicles inside. The weather 50 feet seas. ( They basically were in the eyewall of a Cat4 ).
Quoting 436. sar2401:

The link works in any browser as long as you remove the leading http// part. You can get the same version of Euro but with more display options at Tropical Tidbits, which has virtually any reliable model you'll need. It's also commonly called "Levi's site" after Levi Cowan, a really smart guy who owns the site and is a member here. He also produces videos as a big storm approaches and leaves that have excellent information that's detailed and accurate. It's a good way to offset some of the chowderhead stuff you'll read here. Tropical Tidbits should be your go-to site for any tropical weather information.
Thanks, Sar. I hadn't remembered Levi's site, but I just looked at it. He certainly packs a lot of information on there! Good recommendation.
475. vis0

Quoting 376. StormTrackerScott:



Again they were already in that area as the storm dived SW which wasn't predicted to go as far south as it did. The ship was just caught up in Joaquin and it was too late to react.
a ship cannot turn like a car, though i'm sure most know that i state that 'cause i keep reading why didn't it go back, if you turn a ship in rough seas now your taking the chance that a very high "regular" wave flips you from the side, but it you go head on a rough wave hits you from the front, Joaquin just bombed so quickly not even the "EuroModL" which performed the best of all models had that historic bombing pinned even as it was happening. Here a controversial statement that should be proven in 30-50 yrs when people with anti-co2 respirators go out to do research ... i think they'll prove Joaquin was co2 enhance...Why?

Here is where readers injury there scalp from severe head scratching...

My apologies to those in the areas affected by Joaquin & ULL as i might use words below that only s[peak of Joaquin as a positive but mean no disrespect just describing the formation of something in nature that leaves one astonished at how majestic nature can create something though it caused so much pain.

- i type of what i call "2WkAnoms".
- In short "2WkAnoms" occur ~6 times as to this planet's solar year.
- They last for ~14days and have a 3 day assimilation period at the start, but more influential at the end of these 14 days.
- These 14 days are when anything related to what i all "Galacsics" (Galacsics is the equivalent as to space as physics is within a gravity centered entity(ies), i.e. physical dimensional areas of; planets, solar systems, universes...not RERAs
- If one read my comments before passover one knows ROUGHLY (+/-5 days off, had more accuracy pre 20-14) when each yr's max-min Galacsic/"2wkAnom" cycles occur.
- What was to be Joaquin was spinning for over a week fluctuating towards a better spin then a worse spin at least 3 times.
- Along came the "2WkAnom" and what was to be Joaquin (wwtbJ)now did not have to go towards zip 10016 (where i state i have an ml-d...read my blog for info on that) to maintain good form, therefore "wwtbJ" could move more in accordance with recorded weather history analysis that YTS perform best heading towards warmer waters & southward DURING TS genesis...once TS flourish then they tend (due in part to Coriolis Effect) head more as to the planets rotation. As to "wwtbJ" that would be N...NNE...NE...ENE.
- Watch this animation in IR
https://youtu.be/a6D9Q0-qOVA (600x320, has 28x28 top-bottom padding)


of Joaquin's formation & duration see what dates it begins to become a +TwF (TD,TS...) then watch after the 3 day assimilation period (read bottom of animation screen) Joaquin looks so perfect, milky smooth strong effortlessly forming in an area it should not (interacting with land, upwelling, fronts, all of a sudden shear lowered and/or pointed elsewhere, moving two times over up-welled waters, not directly over gulfstream, getting wound up more yet heading southward as in Coriolis not doing its job, had Cap'n Trough's knees shaking they almost buckled) and countless of other BETTER "equipped" TS could not form (for years, only when the "2WkAnom" is present as with Faye, Gonzalo...though then MJO was appearing, with Joaquin no MJO just "2WkAnom", why i state MJO is more for amount of energy that can be shared not for quality of one storm)
- Here the controversy. During Joaquin's build up the ml-d was NATURALLY powered down (33% in my area near zip 10016, in Joaquin's development areas ~10.89% (in case you never read my now deleted blogbytes i explain the indirect connection as to how this is why our brains only uses that percent of "matter" to the closest Complex Star (Sun) bathing the planet at a rate of years that averages 8~11 (roy g biv, thang) yrs. Mean is 10.89% as quantum bridges that join the physical to Galacsical
dimension lose strings of energy waves. Therefore some years its closer to 8yrs or if not too many loose string(s) its around 11 yrs..,batteries not incl.
- Since Joaquin formed as the ml-d could not do more than 11% in influencing Joaquin (for nature to recognize the ml-d it has to go above 33% to influence).
- Joaquin formed purely from the planets energy flows and since Joaquin formed ~5-8 degree further Northward than any other MAJOR Hurricane at that calendar week then something mist be happening to allow a storm that needs warmth to operate and a CONTINUOUS amount of warmth at that to reach CAT3+ and maintain it when its over upwelling cooler water for 3-5 days. That extra warmth ONCE the TS is spinning at a certain rate comes from warmer+richer in vapour atmosphere (in part caused by co2) and a warmer "Magmasphere(s)" also caused in part by a warming planet...co2 in this case.

BTW - that "Magamasphere" is what i call the tri-mag flows within a complex planet, n this case Earth, its not yet discovered so take it as fiction...Taz, i said fiction not friction. i state a storms spin (particularly parallel to Earths surface as TS, Hurricanes, Tornadoes) creates a reaction to the Magmasphere, a type of "gauzing" & degaussing (PLEASE sit down Mr (prof) Neil deGrasse Tyson i did not call you now, though i did years ago) as with HIGHS & LOWS, but i digress, i'm a hungry nut and have to go eat...enjoying guessing the rest 'cause science is weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee, fun...just play nice.