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Thousand-Year Rains Possible in Carolinas; Joaquin Headed North

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:39 PM GMT on October 02, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin continued to lash the Bahamas on Friday morning as it turned north on a course expected to keep it well away from the U.S. East Coast. However, several days of coastal flooding and beach erosion will occur from New Jersey to North Carolina, and extremely heavy rain could produce dangerous impacts in South Carolina. It was a long night of screaming winds, pounding waves, and lashing rains for residents of the Central Bahama Islands, where dangerous Hurricane Joaquin maintained Category 4 intensity with 130 mph winds. The eyewall of Joaquin affected Crooked Island/Acklins Island (population 600), and Long Island (population 3,000) for many hours, and no doubt damage is heavy to extreme on those islands. Joaquin has turned to the north, as seen on microwave satellite animations, and as the storm plows northwards at 3 - 6 mph on Friday, San Salvador Island (population 900) will likely feel eyewall winds. The Hurricane Hunters made multiple passes through the hurricane Friday morning, finding that the central pressure had gradually risen from 935 mb to 939 mb. The size of the eye has been fluctuating considerably, and the Hurricane Hunters noted a secondary maxima of winds away from the eyewall, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle may be ready to begin. These cycles that lead to a collapse of the inner eyewall, followed by a temporary weakening as a new outer eyewall is established. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Friday morning, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin continued to maintain a formidable appearance. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has now has two impressive upper-level outflow channels, one to the northwest, and one to the southeast. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F). These conditions should allow Joaquin to maintain at least Category 3 strength until Saturday.


Figure 1. Lightning flashes in one of Hurricane Joaquin's spiral bands in this nighttime image taken in the early morning hours of October 2, 2015 from the International Space Station. The lights of Miami are visible in the upper left. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly, ISS.


Figure 2.  GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 8:45 am EDT October 2, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Forecast for Joaquin
Joaquin is finally embarking on its long-awaited turn toward the north, and the Bahamas are likely the only land areas that will feel a direct impact from the storm. Microwave satellite animations on Friday morning showed the convective core of Joaquin shifting toward the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is now streaming toward the northwest, some of it becoming entrained in the frontal system off the East Coast.

The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) computer model runs continued to lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF solutions inched slightly westward from their previous tracks, bringing Joaquin a bit closer to Cape Cod through a subtle left swing in its path. The 06Z GFS run shifted back toward the east, well away from New England, and the 12Z GFS run also remained far offshore. A slight northward bend in the otherwise northeastward track remains in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions, as noted in the 11:00 am EDT forecast discussion from NHC. The ECMWF’s 00Z Friday ensemble runs were quite closely clustered around the offshore track, with only a couple of its 50 members suggesting the potential for a New England landfall. In contrast, more than a third of the 00Z and 06Z GEFS ensemble members continue to indicate the possibility of a SC/NC landfall, although the operational GFS model has not shown such a solution for some time. Among other major models, the Canadian GEM and the U.S. NAM (including the 12Z Friday NAM ran) also point toward an East Coast landfall, but take heed: these are historically among the least-reliable track models, so we would be wise to heavily discount them in favor of the GFS and ECMWF. 


Figure 3. GFS ensemble members from the GEFS run on 06Z Friday, October 2, lean heavily toward an offshore track for Joaquin as depicted in the official NHC forecast, although a few members still bring Joaquin along a looping onshore path near the U.S. East Coast. On the right-hand side are the ensembles’ projected tracks for Invest 90L. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

The official NHC forecast track as of 11:00 am EDT Friday keeps Joaquin hundreds of miles away from the U.S. East Coast, and NHC has enough confidence in this track that the “key points” section of its latest forecast discussion does not mention any potential for a U.S. landfall. The persistence of a few model outliers should not be a particular cause for concern at this point, but it does remind us that the upper-level features that will steer Joaquin are complex and dynamic. The two main influences on Joaquin’s track remain the upper low now cutting off over the Southeast U.S. and Invest 90L, located more than 1000 miles east of Joaquin. 90L originated from an upper-level low that has incorporated remnants of former Tropical Storm Ida. The NHC is giving 90L an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours as it drifts northward. The presence of 90L is creating a pathway for Joaquin to head northeast.

It appears that the strong jet stream diving around the Southeast low will kick eastward around the base of the low over the next couple of days, pushing the eastern part of the low offshore. Together with the influence of slowly developing 90L, this should keep Joaquin moving on a north to northeast track Friday and Saturday. As Figure 3 suggests, a more northeastward motion would lend confidence in the current expectation of an offshore track, while any significant component of motion toward the west today and Saturday would keep open the door for the far-less-likely possibility of a track hooking around the Southeast upper low. We’ll be watching the 12Z Friday model guidance closely and will have more on the forecast for Joaquin in our afternoon update.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall (in inches) for the 72-hour period from 12Z (8 am EDT) Friday, October 2, 2015, to Monday, October 5. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Epic rainfall likely for South Carolina
The latest 3-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is calling for 10 - 15" inches of rain for the majority of South Carolina, including the cities of Charleston and Columbia.
 
This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding. The PRE can develop well to the left or right of the eventual track of the tropical cyclone. Slow-moving Hurricane Joaquin is perfectly positioned to transport a strong low-level flow of super-moist tropical air that has water vapor evaporated from record-warm ocean waters north of the Bahamas westwards into the Southeast U.S. Once this moisture hits land, it will encounter a cut-off upper low pressure system aloft, with a surface front beneath it, which will lift the moist air, cooling it, and forcing epic amounts of rainfall to fall. The air will also be moving up in elevation from the coast to the Piedmont and Appalachians, which lifts the air and facilitates even more precipitation. Satellite imagery is already hinting at development of this connection of moisture between Joaquin and the Southeast low and frontal system.


Figure 5. The maximum rainfall predicted to fall in any 24-hour period during the 5-day period from 5 am EDT October 2 to 5 am EDT October 7, according to a high-resolution Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model run done by MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) In some areas of North Carolina and South Carolina, 24-hour rainfall amounts one would expect to fall only once in a thousand years are predicted. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/ or on their Facebook page.

Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur.  According to NOAA's Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical "recurrence interval" of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1", 17.8", and 14.2", respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8", 15.9", and 12.5", respectively.

The storm to beat in South Carolina is Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, which dumped up to 18.51" of rain over a small region of Southwest SC. The storm to beat in nearby eastern North Carolina is Hurricane Floyd, which dumped prodigious amounts of rain in mid-September 1999, less than a month after Hurricane Dennis had drenched the region. Floyd produced a broad stripe of 15" - 20" rains, with a maximum total of 24.06" at a site five miles north of Southport, NC (about 30 miles east of the NC/SC border). To get such widespread multi-day totals outside of a tropical cyclone would be a monumental feat.  Averaged across the state as a whole, the wettest three calendar months in South Carolina weather history are July 1916 (14.41"), September 1924 (13.16"), and September 1928 (12.70"). All of these were related to tropical cyclones passing through or near the state. If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state--without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

Texas and Oklahoma have already notched their wettest months on record (by far) this past May, and Illinois had its second-wettest month on record in June. Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.

For more on the science of extremely heavy rainfall, see Bob Henson's May 2015 post, The Rains of May and the Science of Recurrence Intervals.


Figure 6. Projected maximum flood category for the 24-hour period from noon EDT Friday, October 2, through Saturday, October 3, 2015. The worst impacts today through Saturday are expected through the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Strong on-shore winds along the mid-Atlantic coast due to the pressure gradient between Hurricane Joaquin and a strong high pressure system over the Northeast U.S. were creating storm surge heights of 2 - 3' in many locations, and over 3' on Virginia's Delmarva Peninsula. Image credit: Hal Needham.

Long-duration coastal flooding under way
The combination of Hurricane Joaquin, the Southeast U.S. low, and a strong ridge well to the north is leading to an unusually prolonged period of steady onshore flow and high surf along the U.S. East Coast from New Jersey southward to North Carolina. The highest-impact coastal flooding and beach erosion can be expected along the Virginia and Delaware coast, including Ocean City, MD, and the Hampton Roads area of VA, which includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The Wakefield, VA, NWS office is calling for several rounds of moderate to severe coastal flooding through the weekend. See the latest blog post from storm-surge expert Hal Needham for more details on this event.

We’ll have an update later this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like Joaquin has peaked, and turned northward.
good blog
Thanx for the update.
heavy rain in the South Carolina today and tonight
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Dr. Masters: "This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MW R3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding."

Could you imagine if Joaquin defies the current models and DOES turn west and hit North/South Carolina?? I can't even begin to comprehend the totals.. unless of course if Joaquin turning west affects the PRE downwards...
good blog!!!
Thanks for the new thread. Any way the mods can keep the non-weather noise and tantrum-casting down on this one?
10. 7544
Quoting 1. BayFog:

Looks like Joaquin has peaked, and turned northward.


looks still nw and hh show nw for now
if jq moves to nw b 4 heading n that mess over sc cud pull jq twoards the coast.
as yogi said it aint over till its over
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
NWS rainfall forecast for S. Carolina thru late Sunday.
Snowfall type numbers ... 6-12'' up to 14''
Dry air approaching from the west and northeast, plus increasing shear, plus an encroaching frontal boundary. The finale has begun.

Interesting though to see that the ECWMF has a powerful remnant of Joaquin off the British Isles in about a week.

Thank you for the update!
Thank You both for the detailed update. After the Bahamas (and their rain, wind and surge nightmare), the US is next on tap with the rainfall nightmare. The closer the storm tracks to the US (on the Western edge of the cone), the worse the rains will be due to the baroclinic forcing from all the tropical moisture streaming in. A bad situation all the way around for the Bahamas and the Eastern Seabord any way you look at it.

Quoting 4. hurricanes2018:

heavy rain in the South Carolina today and tonight


Actually very little rain is falling in SC right now.
17. bwat
Great post, but as a lifelong NC resident, I think you meant Floyd and Dennis of 1999, not 2009. Perhaps a mod can correct this?
I guess they expect the heavy rain to begin shifting further inland over NC later today?
Damn, my brother and his friend are driving down to the Notre Dame - Clemson game. Gonna be a wet one to say the least.
Quoting 6. LongIslandBeaches:

Dr. Masters: "This forecast assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will not come anywhere close to the state. The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MW R3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding."

Could you imagine if Joaquin defies the current models and DOES turn west and hit North/South Carolina?? I can't even begin to comprehend the totals.. unless of course if Joaquin turning west affects the PRE downwards...


100% impossible due to physics.... this was never going to hit the Carolinas, even Masters said it was a threat and the EURO wasn't being accepted due to all the other models. Thing is.. EURO is 1 of the 2 best performing models.. only the GFS went off with the others for a day but was first to jump back with the EURO. GFS is still 1 of the best.

Another example of the GFS is that his has the next system approaching 20N and 60W for a few days... Euro had just a wave..but now the EURO has joined the GFS in having our next TS. Again, both models compete and beat each other. Still with physics JQ was never going to get to the U.S. only slight chance was Cade Cod being brushed and that was only a 10% chance.
LOL, TWC just showed a plastic lawn chair being blown over in the Bahamas, they can't find anything better to show ?
Quoting 22. MahFL:

LOL, TWC just showed a plastic lawn chair being blown over in the Bahamas, they can't find anything better to show ?


I normally don't post the same image within a week's time but...

The lower-mid level trof that is helping to steer the storm:


The ULL which is helping with all of the rain to the East of the boundry:
I'm feeling more at ease with every update!
So I guess it's safe to say that without the presence of 90L we could be in even more trouble here in the Carolinas/VA. A westward shift is still bad if it stays it's projected course out to sea, I hope everyone in the possible flood areas stays safe and stays put.

So I guess with it being established that the rains on the east coast are directly associated with the PRE, can Joaquin be indirectly credited with whatever damage comes out of it? Seems to me that he is going to be impacting the US whether directly or not.

This is not to detract from the harrowing conditions in the Bahamas... it's unbelievable that this storm has just been sitting pretty in that region for almost more than half it's life as a major hurricane.
Ship with 33 onboard is missing near Crooked Island.
Quoting 20. SouthTampa:

Damn, my brother and his friend are driving down to the Notre Dame - Clemson game. Gonna be a wet one to say the least.

http://www.clemsontigers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATC LID=209956791
" Due to inclement weather, the Clemson vs. Notre Dame game scheduled for Friday at 6:30 p.m. at Doug Kingsmore Stadium has been postponed. The two teams are now scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday beginning at 2 p.m., with 45 minutes in between games."

Which makes no sense to me. Why would they think it would be better on Saturday?
May not be a bad time to get in touch with your local Red Cross and see if they're gathering for relief efforts to the islands...
Quoting 21. scottsvb:



100% impossible due to physics.... this was never going to hit the Carolinas, even Masters said it was a threat and the EURO wasn't being accepted due to all the other models. Thing is.. EURO is 1 of the 2 best performing models.. only the GFS went off with the others for a day but was first to jump back with the EURO. GFS is still 1 of the best.

Another example of the GFS is that his has the next system approaching 20N and 60W for a few days... Euro had just a wave..but now the EURO has joined the GFS in having our next TS. Again, both models compete and beat each other. Still with physics JQ was never going to get to the U.S. only slight chance was Cade Cod being brushed and that was only a 10% chance.


Perhaps it's ignorance, but I don't quite understand how it's "100% impossible due to physics." I watched this storm closely and tried to learn as much as I could. Are you saying it's 100% impossible because the trough along the eastern seaboard isn't negatively tilted? Is it based on your observations of the WV map? Please help me understand.

Also, if it is indeed "100% impossible", why is it still being discussed in the media and shown by some models?

EDIT: Post #24 paints a pretty clear picture. Thanks, guy.
Quoting 9. AGWcreationists:

Thanks for the new thread. Any way the mods can keep the non-weather noise and tantrum-casting down on this one?


We need these Mods:



just testing to see if they are here ;}
Still moving NW,NNW? Latest Images
Quoting 22. MahFL:

LOL, TWC just showed a plastic lawn chair being blown over in the Bahamas, they can't find anything better to show ?


Maybe because they've spent more time filming overfed men learning how to survive in the woods instead of covering a category 4 hurricane.
Quoting 17. bwat:

Great post, but as a lifelong NC resident, I think you meant Floyd and Dennis of 1999, not 2009. Perhaps a mod can correct this?


Yep, typo
In general, El Nino has proved to be an atmospheric event that leads to incredibly low Atlantic hurricane activity.But so far this year, El Nino doesn’t seem to be preventing tropical cyclone formation all that much. The number of named storms are near normal, to-date. And now that we’ve had two major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger — the season has actually outperformed many of the seasonal forecasts that were issued in the spring.
Wahkeen is pretty impressive.Even in a year like 2010 he would have still stood out.
Link
Why does it look so gloomy in NFL? Is a storm coming here?
Grand Bahama (where the major airport is located where planes can come in if aid is needed in the aftermath) is the long Island close to Florida (due East of Lake O). Hopefully, the core of the storm will not push that far West to cause any damage to the airport and/or runways:

Quoting 33. matrcrane:

Still moving NW,NNW? Latest Images



Look at the dry air squeeze coming up... from the NE and the West, both quite visible there. JQ needs to feast heavily on their delicious dryness while it squeezes between them.
I am a newb but looking at the water vapor loop I do not see what is going to push it off shore
Quoting 21. scottsvb:



100% impossible due to physics.... this was never going to hit the Carolinas, even Masters said it was a threat and the EURO wasn't being accepted due to all the other models. Thing is.. EURO is 1 of the 2 best performing models.. only the GFS went off with the others for a day but was first to jump back with the EURO. GFS is still 1 of the best.

Another example of the GFS is that his has the next system approaching 20N and 60W for a few days... Euro had just a wave..but now the EURO has joined the GFS in having our next TS. Again, both models compete and beat each other. Still with physics JQ was never going to get to the U.S. only slight chance was Cade Cod being brushed and that was only a 10% chance.


If you're going to make claims of 100% impossible due to physics, you should provide at least some elaboration.

Models have physics programmed into them, so if it's 100% impossible based on physics, then why was there model support for the Carolinas for a time?
Is the rain along the NC/SC coast directly from Joaquin? It appears to be feeding the storm maybe?
In the coming weeks they were saying the El Nino should cause active weather for the SE US. We shall see.

Quoting 36. washingtonian115:

In general, El Nino has proved to be an atmospheric event that leads to incredibly low Atlantic hurricane activity.But so far this year, El Nino doesn’t seem to be preventing tropical cyclone formation all that much. The number of named storms are near normal, to-date. And now that we’ve had two major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger — the season has actually outperformed many of the seasonal forecasts that were issued in the spring.
Wahkeen is pretty impressive.Even in a year like 2010 he would have still stood out.
Link
Quoting 29. SC29483:


http://www.clemsontigers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATC LID=209956791
" Due to inclement weather, the Clemson vs. Notre Dame game scheduled for Friday at 6:30 p.m. at Doug Kingsmore Stadium has been postponed. The two teams are now scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday beginning at 2 p.m., with 45 minutes in between games."

Which makes no sense to me. Why would they think it would be better on Saturday?


As far as I know, it's still the ESPN/ABC prime time game at 8 PM Saturday
Not looking good folks. Is Porlight taking funds for relief?

Hurricane Joaquin's Bahamas Impacts: Dozens of Residents Trapped in Their Homes, Thousands Without Power

Look @ this storm surge!

Is there anything heading toward NFL?

Quoting 41. Jedkins01:



If you're going to make claims of 100% impossible due to physics, you should provide at least some elaboration.

Models have physics programmed into them, so if it's 100% impossible based on physics, then why was there model support for the Carolinas for a time?
47. ROTE
Dennis & Floyd were in 1999. Typo has 2009. Regards, and thanks for the Wx information.
Quoting 42. DurhamWeatherLover:

Is the rain along the NC/SC coast directly from Joaquin? It appears to be feeding the storm maybe?


The rain is from the trof/frontal boundry drapped over the Eastern Seaboard; Joaquin is not responsible but moisture from the storm is contributing to the rain totals.....................The storm is feeding the trof at this point.
49. 7544
looks at the far west feeder ban interesting loop what u think stormguy

StormGuyNFL
1:16 PM EDT on October 02, 2015
0
Is there anything heading toward NFL?


Link
Moderate flood already :

Here in North Charleston dry for now
Quoting 47. ROTE:

Dennis & Floyd were in 1999. Typo has 2009. Regards, and thanks for the Wx information.


Fixed, thanks!

Dr. M.
Back to Baha's claim first time ever a cat 4 has hit the Central Bahamas in October since the 1870's. Source TWC
I can't believe the images of the storm surge that came into the Bahamas. Whole towns are flooded.



Report from BASRA

-One commercial vessel waiting out the storm near South Andros;

-Potentially two fishing boats, 20+ ft, not having returned from the Green Cay, Andros, area. In both instances boats will be dispatched to evaluate the situation. The two different reports may be of the same boat.

The eye is supposed to move north of Rum Cay shortly, and residents in southern Cat Island and San Salvador are expected to be impacted by hurricane winds for the next several hours ....
Quoting 43. StormGuyNFL:

In the coming weeks they were saying the El Nino should cause active weather for the SE US. We shall see.


Seems its already taking place here.The pattern has flipped from warm and sunny to cold and dreary.
Quoting 44. win1gamegiantsplease:



As far as I know, it's still the ESPN/ABC prime time game at 8 PM Saturday


The original post is about an exhibition baseball game between the two schools, not the football game. They don't play doubleheaders in football...
Quoting 36. washingtonian115:

In general, El Nino has proved to be an atmospheric event that leads to incredibly low Atlantic hurricane activity.But so far this year, El Nino doesn’t seem to be preventing tropical cyclone formation all that much. The number of named storms are near normal, to-date. And now that we’ve had two major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger — the season has actually outperformed many of the seasonal forecasts that were issued in the spring.
Wahkeen is pretty impressive.Even in a year like 2010 he would have still stood out.
Link


This could have been a hyperactive year under normal/La Niña conditions, given how robust the waves off Africa were, even the monster El Niño could not stop that, but what it's done is suppress the waves off Africa from becoming anything notable. The tropical waves this year have been strong, with the most vigorous still earning themselves TS status, even persisting under hostile conditions. El Niño is the difference between this year and 2010, essentially.
I live near the Waccamaw River in Horry County, SC. Its highest level ever recorded was after Floyd left and dropped about 20-24" in the basin. I expect the river to jump at least 10 feet by this time Sunday and perhaps 15 feet or more by Monday-Tuesday.

It is a relatively small watershed and wide floodplain, but downtown Conway, SC is going to flood...and bad! If anyone on here has interests or relatives near a moving body of water in SC, tell them to get to higher ground if possible. If your out in the backyard wading through water, its too late!!! Road networks in the low country do nothing but cris-cross high spots between massive swamp areas or cross major rivers!
Possible development due south of Hawaii.
Quoting 29. SC29483:


http://www.clemsontigers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATC LID=209956791
" Due to inclement weather, the Clemson vs. Notre Dame game scheduled for Friday at 6:30 p.m. at Doug Kingsmore Stadium has been postponed. The two teams are now scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday beginning at 2 p.m., with 45 minutes in between games."

Which makes no sense to me. Why would they think it would be better on Saturday?


I'm guessing you're talking about a football game? I know next to nothing about football, and even less about college football, but when did football doubleheaders begin?
Quoting 42. DurhamWeatherLover:

Is the rain along the NC/SC coast directly from Joaquin? It appears to be feeding the storm maybe?


The rain is from an area of diffluent convection between JQ and a trough, moisture from JQ and apparently the Pacific is feeding into it. A 1000 year flood might materialize.
Quoting 29. SC29483:


http://www.clemsontigers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATC LID=209956791
" Due to inclement weather, the Clemson vs. Notre Dame game scheduled for Friday at 6:30 p.m. at Doug Kingsmore Stadium has been postponed. The two teams are now scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday beginning at 2 p.m., with 45 minutes in between games."

Which makes no sense to me. Why would they think it would be better on Saturday?
Although this is off topic, I'll respond. This has to be an old announcement from last spring about baseball games. You don't have doubleheaders in football.
Oh my

In the southern Bahamas, Crooked Island (population: 600) sustained hours of intense wind, rain and storm surge that kept authorities from reaching residents trapped in their homes. Even as police were called by panicked citizens who said storm surge flooding was filling their homes, there was nothing they could do, the Tribune added.
Im just thankful that most of the rivers here in NC were not already at the top of their banks
67. 7544
is that a feeder band going north west to so fl from jo thanks
Quoting 22. MahFL:

LOL, TWC just showed a plastic lawn chair being blown over in the Bahamas, they can't find anything better to show ?
There's lots of footage of heavy wave action and flooding coming out, especially via WhatsApp and FB, but I don't know whether they can get permission from the owners to post that footage ....

People here are very much into phone tech, and I expect there will be floods of pics and vids once communication systems are operational again in the affected areas.

From Acklins, I just heard a very brief report saying that there is heavy flooding and all the phones are out, but so far no reports of loss of life. This is heartening, and I hope we don't get any worse reports.


anyone see this high back up here
The reports coming in from the Bahamas are just down right bad. There appears to be 3 islands that took a major hit from Joaquin. Those are Long Island, Crooked Island, and Ackins Island.

"By the time anyone knew that the storm was on the way it was too late," Shandira Forbes, whose mother lives on the island, told the Tribune. "The whole of Acklins is under water and Samana Cay does not have any shelter."
Quoting 61. nolawombat:



I'm guessing you're talking about a football game? I know next to nothing about football, and even less about college football, but when did football doubleheaders begin?



It's false information.
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:

Ship with 33 onboard is missing near Crooked Island.
Source?
Baha made it seem I was bashing his Government and that was not the case. Warning came late from the NHC as well so there is blame to handed out all over.

Well this is insane, plane dropped to 200 meters

75. JRRP
Very windy here in Santo Domingo
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:

Baha made it seem I was bashing his Government and that was not the case. Warning came late from the NHC as well so there is blame to handed out all over.





Baha is not a he
Quoting 67. 7544:

is that a feeder band going north west to so fl from jo thanks


It's an outflow channel.
Quoting 72. BahaHurican:

Source?


All over the news TWC, CNN, and MSNBC. Ship was apparently from San Juan and went missing near Crooked Island with 33 onboard. Also reports of whole towns flooded by storm surge and even whole islands.
Very busy times for Bob and Doc! Thanks for the good work.

Meanwhile Joaquin wobbled back to the northern track with pressure slightly rising (942):


Source.
Quoting 72. BahaHurican:

Source?


The El Faro
942 mb, NNE of last position, now at Rum Cay. Can't leave soon enough. That must have been the longest night there on Long Island.

Nice to see the USAF pitch in so awesomely with the NOAA planes down!!!
Quoting 38. weathermanwannabe:

Grand Bahama (where the major airport is located where planes can come in if aid is needed in the aftermath) is the long Island close to Florida (due East of Lake O). Hopefully, the core of the storm will not push that far West to cause any damage to the airport and/or runways:


Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:
Mets are hoping the NE turn will happen long before Joaquin can reach Grand Bahama...
Not looking good folks. Is Porlight taking funds for relief?

Hurricane Joaquin's Bahamas Impacts: Dozens of Residents Trapped in Their Homes, Thousands Without Power

Look @ this storm surge!


This sounds about right.... where is the picture from, Scott?

Really fantastic storm in Santa Maria earlier today in South Brazil:





Quoting 82. kabloie:

942 mb, NNE of last position, now at Rum Cay. Can't leave soon enough. That must have been the longest night there on Long Island.

Nice to see the USAF pitch in so awesomely with the NOAA planes down!!!



News come from that island is not good. Numerous people reportedly trapped in their houses due to flooding from storm surge.
Quoting 53. StormTrackerScott:

Back to Baha's claim first time ever a cat 4 has hit the Central Bahamas in October since the 1870's. Source TWC
Wouldn't be surprised, given my prior research. The Cat 4s that hit our areas are usually Cape Verde types that come in August and September.

Quote me right or not at all.
Quoting 83. BahaHurican:

This sounds about right.... where is the picture from, Scott?


I think that's from Acklins Island. Very little coming in from Long island. That island took a severe hit.
The storm can't penetrate the high to the East or the trof/front over the US to the West; if the high does keep pushing West, that is going to squish the storm even further into the trof and more rain and moisture is going to get squeezed out on the way North and pound the US with more rain...........................It's a really bad situation all the way around for the Bahamas now and the US downstream at this point from what I am seeing on the loops.


So is the storm going to travel up the east side of the encroaching high on WV imagery? Is it what actually blocks the Southeast coast?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.h tml
Quoting 29. SC29483:


http://www.clemsontigers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATC LID=209956791
" Due to inclement weather, the Clemson vs. Notre Dame game scheduled for Friday at 6:30 p.m. at Doug Kingsmore Stadium has been postponed. The two teams are now scheduled to play a doubleheader Saturday beginning at 2 p.m., with 45 minutes in between games."

Which makes no sense to me. Why would they think it would be better on Saturday?
O-o ... Footbawl, son.
Ship goes missing
The U.S. Coast Guard says it's searching for a container ship with 33 crew members on board that may have gotten caught in Joaquin's path.

The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.

The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.

As of Friday morning, the Coast Guard said it had not been able to communicate with the El Faro's crew.

Two Air Force C-130 planes were deployed on Thursday to locate the ship, but were not successful.

Search efforts were expected to continue on Friday.
Down to 1000mb now in West Palm Beach,FL


watching Hurricane JOAQUIN at 1pm on october 2 2015 winds 130 mph ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
Yikes, thanks for the Updates.....
Checking in. Joaquin had been giving us one good final lashing that coincided with the flood tide. Some spots on Exuma are seeing 5-6 foot surges and an entire portion of George town is under water.

The back of my house is protected by an extensive mangrove system and I actually have 5 foot swells running.

Also there have been at least 2 cruising yachts that have sunk in George town with more that have broken their moorings and are either drifting or already on the rocks.

Makes me thankful this storm did not come west an extra 20 miles.

I can't get through to anyone in Williams town to find out what the damage is like... They are the closest to where jq passed.

Going on my 3rd day without power.
Quoting 82. kabloie:

942 mb, NNE of last position, now at Rum Cay. Can't leave soon enough. That must have been the longest night there on Long Island.

Nice to see the USAF pitch in so awesomely with the NOAA planes down!!!



Those WC130J's are part of the 13 plane HH fleet, they do this all the time. They are specially equipped for the task, hence the W in the designation.
Quoting 87. BahaHurican:

Wouldn't be surprised, given my prior research. The Cat 4s that hit our areas are usually Cape Verde types that come in August and September.

Quote me right or not at all.
Baha, you should just ignore that [redacted].
100. IDTH
Quoting 89. weathermanwannabe:

The storm can't penetrate the high to the East or the trof/front over the US to the West; if the high does keep pushing East, that is going to squish the storm even further into the trof and more rain and moisture is going to get squeezed out on the way North and pound the US with more rain...........................It's a really bad situation all the way around for the Bahamas now and the US downstream at this point from what I am seeing on the loops.

That's what I thought but I guess the storm is either defying logic or the high is weaker than it appears.
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 74.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES



Quoting 22. MahFL:

LOL, TWC just showed a plastic lawn chair being blown over in the Bahamas, they can't find anything better to show ?

One of their crew probably threw it from off-camera.
Hurricane JOAQUIN
2:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Location: 23.8°N 74.8°W
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

104. MahFL
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Not looking good folks. Is Porlight taking funds for relief?

Hurricane Joaquin's Bahamas Impacts: Dozens of Residents Trapped in Their Homes, Thousands Without Power

Look @ this storm surge!




That only looks about 2 feet deep, you can see the bottom of the door on the house across the ways.
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:

Ship goes missing
The U.S. Coast Guard says it's searching for a container ship with 33 crew members on board that may have gotten caught in Joaquin's path.

The El Faro, a 735-foot-long cargo ship, was traveling to San Juan, Puerto Rico, from Jacksonville, Florida, and is reported to be caught somewhere near Crooked Island in the Bahamas.

The Coast Guard said it received a report on Thursday morning that the ship had lost propulsion and was taking on water, but that the flooding has been contained.

As of Friday morning, the Coast Guard said it had not been able to communicate with the El Faro's crew.

Two Air Force C-130 planes were deployed on Thursday to locate the ship, but were not successful.

Search efforts were expected to continue on Friday.


A ship coming from Jacksonville should have had plenty of warning there was a Hurricane in his path, what a dumb decision someone made that might have cost 33 people their lives.
If this is the same El Faro ship that is now missing,then it sailed into a CAT 4 hurricane.
107. 7544
Quoting 94. SFLWeatherman:

Down to 1000mb now in West Palm Beach,FL


maybe due to the outflow from jo ?
Trough really tilting negatively in the last hour...
What was recon doing at 200m?!
110. Mikla
~48 hour loop:
Quoting 104. MahFL:



That only looks about 2 feet deep, you can see the bottom of the door on the house across the ways.


It appears that pic was taken as the surge came in. I am reading reports now that water was up to windows and that was as of yesterday evening nothing from these people since.
And here is the current orientation of the SE jet that Dr. Master's made reference to and the concurrent shear issues; If the storm tracks further to the Western edge of the current guidance it would probably have a harder time reaching the higher latitudes as a hurricane as currently forecast; it's best chance for survival as a hurricane is to stay as far away as possible from the US. 




i hope this hurricane move littie faster soon from Central Bahamas the weather is bad there this storm is moving so slow maybe hurricane winds for hours there
Quoting 42. DurhamWeatherLover:

Is the rain along the NC/SC coast directly from Joaquin? It appears to be feeding the storm maybe?


"In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding." - From Jeff Master's blog above.

Joaquin is one of the three elements for this unusual event. The stationary front near NC/SC, which the hurricane is helping feed moisture, and the trough, west of NC/SC.
115. MahFL
Quoting 111. StormTrackerScott:



It appears that pic was takes as the surge came in. I am reading reports now that water was up to windows and that was as of yesterday evening nothing from these people since.


Good point, I was wrongly assuming that was the peak.
Quoting 41. Jedkins01:



If you're going to make claims of 100% impossible due to physics, you should provide at least some elaboration.

Models have physics programmed into them, so if it's 100% impossible based on physics, then why was there model support for the Carolinas for a time?
No way I get in trouble for blogging at work today, because ... physics!
117. IDTH
I thought sars explanation last night cleared this up, but I don't understand how a storm is getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough but yet its projected to go east through a ridge where there is higher pressures. In the run from the hwrf showed me that there would be a lot more convection on the east side connected I believe to a weakness to the east but that is not the case right now. I don't understand the science right now.
Quoting 64. StormTrackerScott:

Oh my

In the southern Bahamas, Crooked Island (population: 600) sustained hours of intense wind, rain and storm surge that kept authorities from reaching residents trapped in their homes. Even as police were called by panicked citizens who said storm surge flooding was filling their homes, there was nothing they could do, the Tribune added.
Ah .... the Tribune .... that explains a lot. I forgive you, Scott.
This island, along with Acklins right beside it, are the ones where I expect the post-storm problems will be worst. The storm took an east jog on Wednesday afternoon that brought the eye down north of them at a time when they weren't expected to get more than TS force winds. The difference in track was prolly no more than 50 miles, originally. The problem is that some people whose homes were inundated would normally have been encouraged to leave if the storm had been expected to turn into a cat 4 right before their doors. The homes would still have flooded, but at least some, if not most, of the people would have gone to shelters. Others would have stayed and been calling for help [we saw this in Irene].
Quoting 70. StormTrackerScott:

The reports coming in from the Bahamas are just down right bad. There appears to be 3 islands that took a major hit from Joaquin. Those are Long Island, Crooked Island, and Ackins Island.

"By the time anyone knew that the storm was on the way it was too late," Shandira Forbes, whose mother lives on the island, told the Tribune. "The whole of Acklins is under water and Samana Cay does not have any shelter."
The people there knew the storm was on the way. They just assumed it wasn't coming THEIR way. This is why I so fully understand the reactions of FL residents when looking at Joaquin. Some of us have learned not to assume or dismiss storms until they have dissipated. As for Samana Cay, there is no DESIGNATED shelter. This does not mean it is a bare place; according to the Minister of Parliament for the area, V. Alfred Grey, who actually grew up going to Samana Cay, even if the people were camping out there are caves well above surge level which could be used as shelter.

I have been hearing numerous reports in which people begin, "We didn't know the storm was coming," but which continue with comments that clearly illustrate that the people were aware of what was going on, but hadn't been giving it their attention. There's a certain amount of responsibility which devolves on the individual.
So here's my take for the individual that said 100% this can't hit the E coast. The upper level system moving W in the CATL is what will steer this NE. Jo HAS to make it around the edge of this system to turn NE. IF by some outside chance the system is stronger or moves W faster & the trough on the E coast goes more negative than expected and sooner than expected...Then there is an hour outside chance Jo could make a run at the east coast. The odds of all those thing coming together are very, very low...but by no means impossible.
San Salvador Island is getting absolutely slammed right now.. looks like a beautiful place too



Quoting 115. MahFL:



Good point, I was wrongly assuming that was the peak.


Some of the twitter feeds from some of these people haven't posted in 17hrs from when the pic was posted. One of the last tweets I saw was water was up to the windows of their house.

The Associated Press said the storm ripped off tree branches and sent widespread flooding throughout some areas, with reports that water reached the windows of homes on Long Island and submerged the airport runway at Ragged Island.
Quoting 116. guygee:

No way I get in trouble for blogging at work today, because ... physics!


me either!! heehee
Quoting 119. StormJunkie:

So here's my take for the individual that said 100% this can't hit the E coast. The upper level system moving W in the CATL is what will steer this NE. Jo HAS to make it around the edge of this system to turn NE. IF by some outside chance the system is stronger or moves W faster & the trough on the E coast goes more negative than expected and sooner than expected...Then there is an hour outside chance Jo could make a run at the east coast. The odds of all those thing coming together are very, very low...but by no means impossible.


To me it seems the tilt based on WV is already more negative than expected, the bow is way out in front!!!!!
Quoting 70. StormTrackerScott:

The reports coming in from the Bahamas are just down right bad. There appears to be 3 islands that took a major hit from Joaquin. Those are Long Island, Crooked Island, and Ackins Island.

"By the time anyone knew that the storm was on the way it was too late," Shandira Forbes, whose mother lives on the island, told the Tribune. "The whole of Acklins is under water and Samana Cay does not have any shelter."
Also, Scott, not done yet ... Rum Cay, Cat Island and San Salvador are still under the gun. At least there's been a hiatus in the intensification process ....
Quoting 97. ExumaMET:

Checking in. Joaquin had been giving us one good final lashing that coincided with the flood tide. Some spots on Exuma are seeing 5-6 foot surges and an entire portion of George town is under water.

The back of my house is protected by an extensive mangrove system and I actually have 5 foot swells running.

Also there have been at least 2 cruising yachts that have sunk in George town with more that have broken their moorings and are either drifting or already on the rocks.

Makes me thankful this storm did not come west an extra 20 miles.

I can't get through to anyone in Williams town to find out what the damage is like... They are the closest to where jq passed.

Going on my 3rd day without power.
I'm glad to hear you're OK. It sounds like mangroves are doing their jobs for you. I can only imagine the storm surge damage, and the damage to yachts tied up there. I would have tried to get up in your mangroves and lashed her down here. I hope the people in Williams town turn out to be OK, just out of communication. Maybe Joaquin will continue to accelerate north and get out of the area. I hope you have a more peaceful night tonight.
Quoting 118. BahaHurican:

Ah .... the Tribune .... that explains a lot. I forgive you, Scott.
This island, along with Acklins right beside it, are the ones where I expect the post-storm problems will be worst. The storm took an east jog on Wednesday afternoon that brought the eye down north of them at a time when they weren't expected to get more than TS force winds. The difference in track was prolly no more than 50 miles, originally. The problem is that some people whose homes were inundated would normally have been encouraged to leave if the storm had been expected to turn into a cat 4 right before their doors. The homes would still have flooded, but at least some, if not most, of the people would have gone to shelters. Others would have stayed and been calling for help [we saw this in Irene].
The people there knew the storm was on the way. They just assumed it wasn't coming THEIR way. This is why I so fully understand the reactions of FL residents when looking at Joaquin. Some of us have learned not to assume or dismiss storms until they have dissipated. As for Samana Cay, there is no DESIGNATED shelter. This does not mean it is a bare place; according to the Minister of Parliament for the area, V. Alfred Grey, who actually grew up going to Samana Cay, even if the people were camping out there are caves well above surge level which could be used as shelter.

I have been hearing numerous reports in which people begin, "We didn't know the storm was coming," but which continue with comments that clearly illustrate that the people were aware of what was going on, but hadn't been giving it their attention. There's a certain amount of responsibility which devolves on the individual.


I wasn't bashing your government Baha. I was bashing the NHC as someone on here said always follow the NHC which is true but they dropped the ball here. Even Brian Norcross on TWC said the samething and has been saying this all day. I think you miss understood what I was referring too.
Quoting 102. PCCfan:


One of their crew probably threw it from off-camera.


Reminds me of the Channel 6 News skit from Mr. Show. Won't link it as to not get banned.
Random Question... Why does the site here wobble between this being a Cat 4 and Cat 3 when I haven't seen any sustained winds over 130? Thanks!
What does a negative tilt to the trough mean to the path of the storm?
A New Yellow X, along with Joaquin and Invest 90L.
Quoting 117. IDTH:

I thought sars explanation last night cleared this up, but I don't understand how a storm is getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough but yet its projected to go east through a ridge where there is higher pressures. In the run from the hwrf showed me that there would be a lot more convection on the east side connected I believe to a weakness to the east but that is not the case right now. I don't understand the science right now.


Many have said the high pressure to the NE of Joaquin will lessen because of its growing interaction with the western trough. The low pressure directly east at 90L is also suppose to tug on Joaquin at that point.
Quoting 119. StormJunkie:

So here's my take for the individual that said 100% this can't hit the E coast. The upper level system moving W in the CATL is what will steer this NE. Jo HAS to make it around the edge of this system to turn NE. IF by some outside chance the system is stronger or moves W faster & the trough on the E coast goes more negative than expected and sooner than expected...Then there is an hour outside chance Jo could make a run at the east coast. The odds of all those thing coming together are very, very low...but by no means impossible.


Do not disagree with your points but any shift towards the East coast could also cause an earlier demise in the intensity and increase the streaming effect that could up the rain totals by several inches in the Carolinas and further upstream into the NE.................Hoping that your scenario never pans out.......................... :)
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:

Baha made it seem I was bashing his Government and that was not the case. Warning came late from the NHC as well so there is blame to handed out all over.


I never denied the lateness of the warning, you know. I was objecting to your suggestion that nobody was prepared and that everything is lost. After Joaquin is gone, there will be enough time to apportion blame. And after seeing you were reading the Tribune, I understood why you said what you said the way you said it ....

Wow, people on the radio are talking about global warming!!! And you thought it was just on the blog .... lol...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Joaquin, located near the central Bahamas.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about
850 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds of gale force.
Although shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since
yesterday, environmental conditions are still forecast to be
conducive for the low to acquire more tropical characteristics
during the next day or so. The system is likely to become a
tropical cyclone before upper-level winds, enhanced by Hurricane
Joaquin, are forecast to be too strong for further development by
Sunday. Information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for the
next few days, some slow development is possible next week while the
system moves west or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 130. NUChickens:

Random Question... Why does the site here wobble between this being a Cat 4 and Cat 3 when I haven't seen any sustained winds over 130? Thanks!

Cat IV is 131, with gusts up to 160 they are giving it the benefit of the doubt... it is a strong Cat 3 or a weak Cat 4...
Quoting 117. IDTH:

I thought sars explanation last night cleared this up, but I don't understand how a storm is getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough but yet its projected to go east through a ridge where there is higher pressures. In the run from the hwrf showed me that there would be a lot more convection on the east side connected I believe to a weakness to the east but that is not the case right now. I don't understand the science right now.

I'll take a stab at that.

Joaquin won't go "through" a ridge, but ride up along or just parallel to the frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard, so actually it will go around the high pressure.
139. MahFL
Quoting 130. NUChickens:

Random Question... Why does the site here wobble between this being a Cat 4 and Cat 3 when I haven't seen any sustained winds over 130? Thanks!


130mph is a Cat4. What do you mean by "seeing" 130mph + winds ?
140. MahFL
Quoting 137. Netflyer:


Cat IV is 131, with gusts up to 160 they are giving it the benefit of the doubt... it is a strong Cat 3 or a weak Cat 4...


Cat4 is 130, I think they changed it recently from 131, because the HH don't typically measure winds in 1 mph intervals.

"4
(major) 130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h"

And now Cat5 is 157mph.
The frogs are going nuts at home, they're enjoying lining up in groups of two
Quoting 135. BahaHurican:

I never denied the lateness of the warning, you know. I was objecting to your suggestion that nobody was prepared and that everything is lost. After Joaquin is gone, there will be enough time to apportion blame. And after seeing you were reading the Tribune, I understood why you said what you said the way you said it ....

Wow, people on the radio are talking about global warming!!! And you thought it was just on the blog .... lol...


No worries baha! BTW I've been all over the Bahamas infact was just there a few weeks ago around the first week of September. Long Island which I have been before is marshy in spots and is very low lying so I can see why reports coming in are saying the whole part of the island was covered by the surge.
The yellow x is highlighted because the models were showing a storm nearing P.R in about a weeks time.Depending on if 90L is named some time soon it would be Kate/Larry.
Quoting 141. win1gamegiantsplease:

The frogs are going nuts at home, they're enjoying lining up in groups of two


When they start mating then let me know.
Quoting 132. Climate175:

A New Yellow X, along with Joaquin and Invest 90L.


And another Cape Verde system trying to sneak across in October!
Quoting 85. pablosyn:


Really fantastic storm in Santa Maria earlier today in South Brazil:








Really scary storm today.
Hmmm, this blog isnt absolutely crazy like it was yesterday.

I like this blog better when it's not getting 10 posts per second anyways :)
Quoting 147. FunnelVortex:

Hmmm, this blog isnt absolutely crazy like it was yesterday.

I like this blog better when it's not getting 10 posts per second anyways :)
That is because the U.S threat is lessening.

Animated : Link
Quoting 140. MahFL:



Cat4 is 130, I think they changed it recently from 131, because the HH don't typically measure winds in 1 mph intervals.

"4
(major) 130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h"

And now Cat5 is 157mph.


Thanks for the clarification :-) 15(7) heh... shouldn't it be 155 or 160?
Quoting 111. StormTrackerScott:



It appears that pic was taken as the surge came in. I am reading reports now that water was up to windows and that was as of yesterday evening nothing from these people since.
The lady from Long Island said that at least 2 cell towers are down, which would mean no communications from those areas.
1245 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 1238 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN...THAT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ENHANCE ALREADY ONGOING FLOODING...AND
ALSO SLOW THE RECEDING OF WATER FROM EARLIER FLOODING CAUSED BY
THE HEAVY RAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...BURGAW...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...SURF CITY...RICH
INLET...FIGURE EIGHT ISLAND...HAMPSTEAD...TOPSAIL BEACH...
TOPSAIL...WRIGHTSBORO...BAYSHORE...OGDEN...MURRAY TOWN...WHITE
STOCKING...SILVER LAKE...WINDEMERE...SCOTTS HILL...ROCKY POINT...
CAPE FEAR COMMUNITY COLLEGE NORTH CAMPUS AND WILLARD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 389 AND 416.

Quoting 57. rwdobson:



The original post is about an exhibition baseball game between the two schools, not the football game. They don't play doubleheaders in football...


I was gonna say, what a strange coincidence
Is the storm going to go to the east of the dry air channel that is presently encroaching form the west in WV imagery?

Animated: Link
Quoting 127. matrcrane:





New here and definitely not an expert, but what makes Jo turn NE in the next few hours versus staying on the northward course
Quoting 156. Nassuvian:



New here and definitely not an expert, but what makes Jo turn NE in the next few hours versus staying on the northward course


the ULL to its northeast.
Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:



Some of the twitter feeds from some of these people haven't posted in 17hrs from when the pic was posted. One of the last tweets I saw was water was up to the windows of their house.

The Associated Press said the storm ripped off tree branches and sent widespread flooding throughout some areas, with reports that water reached the windows of homes on Long Island and submerged the airport runway at Ragged Island.
Considering the geography of the islands, I expect airports at Stella Maris and possibly also Deadmans Cay [though less likely] are also underwater. I don't know enough about Crooked Island and Acklins to know if theirs would also take on water. I wouldn't be surprised if Acklins' did....
12z Euro is underway - very much OTS, lol:





Quoting 146. pablosyn:



Really scary storm today.

Is that a dust storm?
10/2/2015. Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin with 130 mph winds still pounding the Bahamas where already are reports of destroyed houses, uprooted trees and extensive flooding. Also the U.S. Coast Guard said it's searching for a cargo ship El Faro with 33 people aboard that went missing on thursday close to the eye of Hurricane Joaquin. The cargo ship which was traveling from Jacksonville, Florida, to San Juan, Puerto Rico. Link

Animated: Link
The threat to the states decreased and the number of comments per hour decreased substantially as a result. Kind of sad if you think about it, given that Joaquin is still affecting the Bahamas.
Quoting 151. Netflyer:



Thanks for the clarification :-) 15(7) heh... shouldn't it be 155 or 160?


Category

Sustained Winds

Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds


1 74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

2 96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

3
(major) 111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

4
(major) 130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

5
(major) 157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Link

Minor Modification to Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale For the 2012 Hurricane Season

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) is undergoing a minor modification for 2012 in order to resolve awkwardness associated with conversions among the various units used for wind speed in advisory products. The change broadens the Category 4 wind speed range by one mile per hour (mph) at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This change does not alter the category assignments of any storms in the historical record, nor will it change the category assignments for future storms. The reasoning behind this change and a tabulation of the old and new scales is given below.
Because of the inherent uncertainty in estimating the strength of tropical cyclones, the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center assign tropical cyclone intensities in 5-knot (kt) increments (e.g., 100, 105, 100, 115 kt, etc.). Some advisory products, however, require intensity to be given in units of mph and kilometers per hour (km/h). For these products, the intensity in knots is converted into mph and km/h and then rounded to 5-mph and 5-km/h increments, so as not to suggest that the intensity of the storm can be known to unrealistic precision (e.g., 127 mph!).
Unfortunately, this conversion and rounding process doesn’t work well at the Category 4 boundaries. Category 4 has historically been defined to be 131-155 mph (with corresponding ranges in other units given as 114-135 kt, and 210-249 km/h). A hurricane with an assigned intensity of 115 kt, therefore, is a Category 4 hurricane. However, when 115 kt is converted to mph (132.3 mph) and then rounded to the nearest 5 mph (130 mph), the result falls in the Category 3 mph range. In order for the hurricane to appear as Category 4 in both kt and mph, NHC is forced to incorrectly convert 115 kt to 135 mph in its advisory products. A similar problem occurs when the Category 4 intensity of 135 kt is converted to km/h.
To solve these rounding issues, the new SSHWS broadens the Category 4 wind speed range by one mph at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph (113136 kt, 209-251 km/h). With this change, a 115-kt Category 4 hurricane can have its intensity properly converted to mph and rounded to the nearest 5 mph (130 mph) – and remain within the Category 4 mph range.
It’s important to reiterate that because NHC assigns intensity using 5-kt increments (and will be doing so for the foreseeable future), neither storms in the historical record nor any future storms would have their SSHWS category changed as a result of this adjustment. Changing the Category 4 range to 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, and 209-251 km/h simply allows all unit conversions from knots to be done correctly and keep storms in the correct category, regardless of the units used.

Quoting 163. LostTomorrows:

The threat to the states decreased and the number of comments per hour decreased substantially as a result. Kind of sad if you think about it, given that Joaquin is still affecting the Bahamas.


Well, ya know....

The very real threat of a catastrophic flood (which will kill more people than Joaquin ever could) just isn't sexy enough. Folks would rather talk about EWRC and argue about a non-existent turn into a trough.

If I seem a little salty, I am.
Quoting 128. StormTrackerScott:



I wasn't bashing your government Baha. I was bashing the NHC as someone on here said always follow the NHC which is true but they dropped the ball here. Even Brian Norcross on TWC said the samething and has been saying this all day. I think you miss understood what I was referring too.
I saw your point you made later. This is the second time this season [first was Erika] when advisories were recommended based on direction of travel of the storm without consideration to the CONFIGURATION of the storm CDO. Luckily for us, the local guys scrambled to call that watch when they did. As I said earlier, there will be more than enough time later to apportion blame, and IMO there will be more than enough to go around. One thing the prime minister said yesterday was that this has got to be a teachable moment for us, and despite improvements over the years, we all still have a lot to learn......
An interesting read, including descriptions of early 20th century meteorology and the limits of forecasting before high altitude flight was developed. Many photographs. 

Hell and High Water: The Flood of 1916
http://www.ourstate.com/flood-of-1916/

"Decades before hurricanes had names, when weather wasn’t forecast so much as it was broadcast, it rained for a solid week over western North Carolina. And then it rained again, harder than it had ever rained before."

Gee, it's been raining here in NC for a week, and now... Well, happy to see Joaquin go east!
Quoting 165. nash36:



Well, ya know....

The very real threat of a catastrophic flood (which will kill more people than Joaquin ever could) just isn't sexy enough. Folks would rather talk about EWRC and argue about a non-existent turn into a trough.

If I seem a little salty, I am.

mirror in every room i take it
WPC Excessive Rainfall..

Day 1


Day 2


Day 3

Ah well check back later.
171. JRRP
Quoting 142. StormTrackerScott:



No worries baha! BTW I've been all over the Bahamas in fact was just there a few weeks ago around the first week of September. Long Island which I have been before is marshy in spots and is very low lying so I can see why reports coming in are saying the whole part of the island was covered by the surge.
Was just there in July. The Sound side is vulnerable to surge; the hilly side is vulnerable to wind. You can't win for losing ....
Quoting 97. ExumaMET:

Checking in. Joaquin had been giving us one good final lashing that coincided with the flood tide. Some spots on Exuma are seeing 5-6 foot surges and an entire portion of George town is under water.

The back of my house is protected by an extensive mangrove system and I actually have 5 foot swells running.

Also there have been at least 2 cruising yachts that have sunk in George town with more that have broken their moorings and are either drifting or already on the rocks.

Makes me thankful this storm did not come west an extra 20 miles.

I can't get through to anyone in Williams town to find out what the damage is like... They are the closest to where jq passed.

Going on my 3rd day without power.


My friends live in or near Stella Maris on the ridge at the center of the island about 25 miles or so south of the northern tip of the island. That resort is elevated and built on coral so foundations should be solid and no surge threat to the resort. However they are exposed to wind damage. I expect there will be a lot. The Stella Maris airstrip is on low ground on the west side of Long Island. It probably flooded. I saw video of the Queens Highway running down the west side of the island, flooded about a foot deep. Unknown when this was taken or how much worse it got.
After the flooding associated with Hugo, for quite some time we dealt with contaminated water supply. (Good enough reason to have bottled drinking water). Will we be dealing with contaminated water supply and sewer back ups with this expected flooding?
(Coastal South Carolina)
Quoting 148. washingtonian115:

That is because the U.S threat is lessening.
Also because Joaquin seems to have peaked.
That takes it to Bermuda... It must be 90L grabbing Joaquin.


Quoting 159. barbamz:

12z Euro is underway - very much OTS, lol:






Quoting 174. SC29483:

After the flooding associated with Hugo, for quite some time we dealt with contaminated water supply. (Good enough reason to have bottled drinking water). Will we be dealing with contaminated water supply and sewer back ups with this expected flooding?


I am hoping that with the new backflow system that is in place it wont hamper the water supply for as long as it did with HUGO...that was a tough road to travel back then
Quoting 157. terstorm:



the ULL to its northeast.

May we clarify one dull question, please, which may cause all the confusion in here: Joaquin isn't supposed to ride up on the left side of the upper level system, in this narrow channel of moisture along the east coast, right? Rather on the right side of it? Or will it be eroded very soon? There is a swirling entity on the southern side of the dry (brown) air mass (the upper level system), approaching Joaquin from northeast. Is this the famous ULL (upper level low), which should be on top of the storm in order to push it to the right (to the east), no?

Quoting 165. nash36:



Well, ya know....

The very real threat of a catastrophic flood (which will kill more people than Joaquin ever could) just isn't sexy enough. Folks would rather talk about EWRC and argue about a non-existent turn into a trough.

If I seem a little salty, I am.


Well I did talk about the set-up over coastal US in a prior comment but no one reads what I say - as I'm generally just a less-than-knowledgeable lurker who is fascinated by tropical cyclones. I've learned a lot from this blog.

Besides, I really don't think you oughtta say that what is currently happening/going to happen "will" kill people at all. Let's all simply hope it doesn't.
Quoting 158. BahaHurican:

Considering the geography of the islands, I expect airports at Stella Maris and possibly also Deadmans Cay [though less likely] are also underwater. I don't know enough about Crooked Island and Acklins to know if theirs would also take on water. I wouldn't be surprised if Acklins' did....

Deadman's Cay airport floods in a heavy rain. It will most likely be unusable for a few days in a flood of this scope. It's the primary reason it hasn't been converted to an international base. Sadly, a significant number of buildings pertaining to Long Island's infrastructure are on low ground.
LOTS of dry air to the north of Joaquin. Looks like the beginning of the end for this hurricane...
Quoting 176. JeffreyLXV:

That takes it to Bermuda... It must be 90L grabbing Joaquin.





It has nothing to do with 90L no matter what the weather channel (MSNBC Bought) or whoever else. It's going between the ridge north of PR and the trough over the SE US. It's like a flow in the river. 90L is too far away and too weak to have any influence on JQ
Quoting 179. LostTomorrows:



Well I did talk about the set-up over coastal US in a prior comment but no one reads what I say - as I'm generally just a less-than-knowledgeable lurker who is fascinated by tropical cyclones. I've learned a lot from this blog.

Besides, I really don't think you oughtta say that what is currently happening/going to happen "will" kill people at all. Let's all simply hope it doesn't.


Fair enough. Had I chosen my words more carefully, it would have said "which typically does kill." That statement is true. Flash flooding kills more people than anything.
If someone already answered me, please forgive. I'm trying to watch this and grade papers at the same time. Probably not a good idea! lol

I am usually just a lurker when we have a storm out there but I'm confused by some of the posts that I am reading. I get what it means when the storm rides along the edge of the trough, but I don't understand why a negative tilt wouldn't make it turn slightly left along the boundary. Sorry for being so "green" but I'd really like to understand, if someone would please explain it. Thank you.
Quoting 178. barbamz:


May we clarify one dull question, please, which may cause all the confusion in here: Joaquin isn't supposed to ride up on the left side of the upper level system, in this narrow channel of moisture along the east coast, right? Rather on the right side of it? Or will it be eroded very soon? There is a swirling entity on the southern side of the dry (brown) air mass (the upper level system), approaching Joaquin from northeast. Is this the famous ULL (upper level low), which should be on top of the storm in order to push it to the right (to the east), no?




My confusion exactly. I thought it was supposed to go "around" the ridge on the west side of the high pressure. With that thought, it was looking less likely that it could do that with the ridge pushing so far west.
Quoting 183. nash36:



Fair enough. Had I chosen my words more carefully, it would have said "which typically does kill." That statement is true. Flash flooding kills more people than anything.


2 already died and we haven't even begun to get the rain Nash....
Quoting 178. barbamz:


May we clarify one dull question, please, which may cause all the confusion in here: Joaquin isn't supposed to ride up on the left side of the upper level system, in this narrow channel of moisture along the east coast, right? Rather on the right side of it? Or will it be eroded very soon? There is a swirling entity on the southern side of the dry (brown) air mass (the upper level system), approaching Joaquin from northeast. Is this the famous ULL (upper level low), which should be on top of the storm in order to push it to the right (to the east), no?


Count me in with the others trying to understand how this works.
Quoting 54. StormTrackerScott:

I can't believe the images of the storm surge that came into the Bahamas. Whole towns are flooded.






Not good...

It's annoying to me that some are acting almost as if Joaquin is a "fish storm" because models have shifted away from the U.S. while a parts of a nation right next door to FL is getting battered to high hell by this hurricane.

As is stressed by meteorologists many times, it only takes 1 intense hurricane to make a "lame season" become not so lame. This is true for 2015 with Joaquin being one of the strongest hurricanes in over the last several years while also being very destructive for some of the islands in the Bahamas.
One thing that concerns me is that the NHC seems to be a little too slow to respond with advanced warning when a hurricane takes a path that causes more impacts than originally expected to a particular region.
I know comparing weak little storm like Debby to a category 4 hurricane like Joaquin may seem like a terrible comparison, but there is some relation of comparison for the sake of proving the NHC's sometimes late response real time impacts that deviate substantially from the forecast.

Tropical storm Debby as many know, was expected to be a T.S. in Texas, until it turned NE towards FL as the GFS suggested. T.S. Debby being a slow moving storm gave plenty of time for the NHC to respond to this result as wind obs, and radar obs clearly showed that T.S. conditions were going to arrive for the west coast of FL. But, the NHC was slow to change their forecast track, and didn't put up T.S. warnings until HOURS after T.S. conditions were already being felt on the west coast of FL.
I know first hand from speaking to the NWS employees at Ruskin, that it was very stressful for them to have to cover the event unfolding without T.S. warnings. They actually had to call the NHC and explain that it was problematic to be issuing constant severe thunderstorm warnings for rain bands moving onshore when T.S. warnings needed to be put in place. The NHC finally responded with the warning, but a bit too late though.

It's worth noting that there were a number of deaths caused by Debby, and local news stations in the Tampa Bay area mentioned that people took Debby not seriously at all because there was no mention of the possibility of getting a tropical storm. If T.S. warnings had been up by early morning, people's response may have been different because unlike us weather geek's and MET's, people rely on the warnings, they don't stare for hours at radar trends and surface wind obs at 3 AM to see if the forecast may be wrong. There should have been warnings issued, and the NHC had plenty of time to respond to the forecast being wrong.

I'm not here to bash the NHC, anyone here who knows me can confirm that I will defend the NHC often against blog banter and garbage personal attacks towards the NHC. I will continue to reflect that overall they do a great job at advanced warning and service to the public.
However, all human organizations can fail at times, and if they do, we should be able to discuss where they went wrong. My personal observation is that one area where the NHC could improve is response time in advanced warning for land impacts for TC events when the forecast is wrong. They were too slow to respond for advanced warning for Debby in FL and I think this may have happened with Joaquin for the Bahamas which being a category 4, is far more serious than Debby.

If I am wrong about the response time from the NHC with the Bahamas, I'm fine with being corrected, so let me know. But it just seems to be that is the case.
Quoting 186. tiggeriffic:



2 already died and we haven't even begun to get the rain Nash....


Which is inexcusable. How many time have people heard "turn around, don't drown", yet they still think they can make it. There is NOWHERE to go that is THAT important, unless you're dying, where anyone should even leave the house during a flood.

But....people continue to show how incredibly obtuse they are.
Quoting 187. SC29483:

Count me in with the others trying to understand how this works.


My guess is it's going to go to the east side of the dry air. Or the dry air will have no affect on the system at all? Count me as slightly confused.
Quoting 119. StormJunkie:

So here's my take for the individual that said 100% this can't hit the E coast. The upper level system moving W in the CATL is what will steer this NE. Jo HAS to make it around the edge of this system to turn NE. IF by some outside chance the system is stronger or moves W faster & the trough on the E coast goes more negative than expected and sooner than expected...Then there is an hour outside chance Jo could make a run at the east coast. The odds of all those thing coming together are very, very low...but by no means impossible.


Do you hear yourself? If, If, If,If.... sorry but not 1 if is going to happen. The flow between the trough and the ridge is what is the main steering flow. The upper low does have a minor tweet that pulls it back NNE for 12 hrs but that's after it's past 68-69W and it's not tweeting it N or NNW just more NNE. Only chance this had was it to stay more north earlier on and not drop under 25N thus turning N sooner then...and only then.. Cape Cod could of been brushed and a Nova Scotia impact would be possible.
Quoting 189. nash36:



Which is inexcusable. How many time have people heard "turn around, don't drown", yet they still think they can make it. There is NOWHERE to go that is THAT important, unless you're dying, where anyone should even leave the house during a flood.

But....people continue to show how incredibly obtuse they are.


I cannot say that I haven't done things...I did not drive thru the water per say but I drove thru a flood to get to my son (who was only 10 at the time) in WV...I took the back roads over a mountain to get there...but drove thru areas that had been flood ravaged...and more rain was coming...I couldn't get thru by phone to see if they were ok...so I went to find out ... I am blessed all turned out ok... and I agree... some things are not worth the risk... but I don't know the situation behind how they got trapped... so I wont pass judgment on this since I did it once too
Quoting 191. scottsvb:



Do you hear yourself? If, If, If,If.... sorry but not 1 if is going to happen. The flow between the trough and the ridge is what is the main steering flow. The upper low does have a minor tweet that pulls it back NNE for 12 hrs but that's after it's past 68-69W and it's not tweeting it N or NNW just more NNE. Only chance this had was it to stay more north earlier on and not drop under 25N thus turning N sooner then...and only then.. Cape Cod could of been brushed and a Nova Scotia impact would be possible.


Tweeting? good to see you two still agree all the time :)
Quoting 191. scottsvb:



Do you hear yourself? If, If, If,If.... sorry but not 1 if is going to happen. The flow between the trough and the ridge is what is the main steering flow. The upper low does have a minor tweet that pulls it back NNE for 12 hrs but that's after it's past 68-69W and it's not tweeting it N or NNW just more NNE. Only chance this had was it to stay more north earlier on and not drop under 25N thus turning N sooner then...and only then.. Cape Cod could of been brushed and a Nova Scotia impact would be possible.


You just committed the cardinal sin of weather forecasting....By saying it "can't" happen. You know that weather is not static, exact or absolute.

SJ was perfectly correct when he said the chances of x, y and z happening are remote. But they still CAN happen.
Quoting 178. barbamz:


May we clarify one dull question, please, which may cause all the confusion in here: Joaquin isn't supposed to ride up on the left side of the upper level system, in this narrow channel of moisture along the east coast, right? Rather on the right side of it? Or will it be eroded very soon? There is a swirling entity on the southern side of the dry (brown) air mass (the upper level system), approaching Joaquin from northeast. Is this the famous ULL (upper level low), which should be on top of the storm in order to push it to the right (to the east), no?




I don't understand the reference to a ULL to the NE of Joaquin. Reading Jeff Masters blog, he says the trough in the south-east US will slowly erode the high pressure that's east of Joaquin, and the ridge I assume. Then 90L will also help pull Joaquin east.

The 12z Euro shows such a severe east track that maybe 90L is going to have a big influence, maybe even help breaking down the high over Bermuda.
Quoting 188. Jedkins01:



Not good...

It's annoying to me that some are acting almost as if Joaquin is a "fish storm" because models have shifted away from the U.S. while a parts of a nation right next door to FL is getting battered to high hell by this hurricane.

As is stressed by meteorologists many times, it only takes 1 intense hurricane to make a "lame season" become not so lame. This is true for 2015 with Joaquin being one of the strongest hurricanes in over the last several years while also being very destructive for some of the islands in the Bahamas.
One thing that concerns me is that the NHC seems to be a little too slow to respond with advanced warning when a hurricane takes a path that causes more impacts than originally expected to a particular region.
I know comparing weak little storm like Debby to a category 4 hurricane like Joaquin may seem like a terrible comparison, but there is some relation of comparison for the sake of proving the NHC's sometimes late response real time impacts that deviate substantially from the forecast.

Tropical storm Debby as many know, was expected to be a T.S. in Texas, until it turned NE towards FL as the GFS suggested. T.S. Debby being a slow moving storm gave plenty of time for the NHC to respond to this result as wind obs, and radar obs clearly showed that T.S. conditions were going to arrive for the west coast of FL. But, the NHC was slow to change their forecast track, and didn't put up T.S. warnings until HOURS after T.S. conditions were already being felt on the west coast of FL.
I know first hand from speaking to the NWS employees at Ruskin, that it was very stressful for them to have to cover the event unfolding without T.S. warnings. They actually had to call the NHC and explain that it was problematic to be issuing constant severe thunderstorm warnings for rain bands moving onshore when T.S. warnings needed to be put in place. The NHC finally responded with the warning, but a bit too late though.

It's worth noting that there were a number of deaths caused by Debby, and local news stations in the Tampa Bay area mentioned that people took Debby not seriously at all because there was no mention of the possibility of getting a tropical storm. If T.S. warnings had been up by early morning, people's response may have been different because unlike us weather geek's and MET's, people rely on the warnings, they don't stare for hours at radar trends and surface wind obs at 3 AM to see if the forecast may be wrong. There should have been warnings issued, and the NHC had plenty of time to respond to the forecast being wrong.

I'm not here to bash the NHC, anyone here who knows me con confirm that I will defend the NHC often against blog banter and garbage attacks towards the NHC. I will continue to reflect that overall they do a great job at advanced warning and service to the public.
However, all human organizations can fail at times, and if they do, we should be able to discuss where they went wrong. my personal observation is that one area where the NHC could improve is response time in advanced warning for land impacts for TC events when the forecast is wrong. They were too slow to respond for advanced warning for Debby in FL and I think this may have happened with Joaquin for the Bahamas which being a category 4, is far more serious than Debby.

If I am wrong about the response time from the NHC with the Bahamas, I'm fine with being corrected, so let me know. But it just seems to be that is the case.



Joaquin also hit this area of the Bahamas just after The Blood Moon which tides have already been higher than normal as a result of that. The news here in Orlando have been saying that tides have been as much as 5 feet higher than normal even @ low tide. Just imagine what occurred in the Bahamas as both worked together to create likely a massive storm surge.
Quoting 189. nash36:



Which is inexcusable. How many time have people heard "turn around, don't drown", yet they still think they can make it. There is NOWHERE to go that is THAT important, unless you're dying, where anyone should even leave the house during a flood.

But....people continue to show how incredibly obtuse they are.


Stupidity seems to be the real Number 1 killer when weather events strike.
Well I should no better by now, but I don't see this storm marching off to the NE, I think High to it's NE is stronger than forecast. I think this storm has to go do north for awhile before it curves any other direction. Just observing the ULL over the se backing to the sw and all cloud flow around high pressures western periphery moving do North from SFl. to NY.. Storm will now probably having said this, immediately move NE. This has been tough storm to forecast as is typical when the steering patterns aren't clear. Feel sorry for the Bahamas. Hope it's better than expected.
Watches went up Tuesday evening, warnings Wednesday, I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Quoting 185. Sangria:



My confusion exactly. I thought it was supposed to go "around" the ridge on the west side of the high pressure. With that thought, it was looking less likely that it could do that with the ridge pushing so far west.


My Thought were, are the the same!!! Every Met. Has said that.. but I see an area of high pressure barreling toward JQ, High pressures push away and rotate clockwise????? right???
This blog should be used as a tool to help folks learn. Many inexperienced people are voicing opinions and questions, but all too often, others, who think they are the last word on things, only want to criticize and bash those that may not know as much about storms and things in the atmosphere that control them.
Quoting 196. StormTrackerScott:




Joaquin also hit this area of the Bahamas just after The Blood Moon which tides have already been higher than normal as a result of that. The news here in Orlando have been saying that tides have been as much as 5 feet higher than normal even @ low tide. Just imagine what occurred in the Bahamas as both worked together to create likely a massive storm surge.


Yeah, definitely not good at all.
Quoting 173. georgevandenberghe:



My friends live in or near Stella Maris on the ridge at the center of the island about 25 miles or so south of the northern tip of the island. That resort is elevated and built on coral so foundations should be solid and no surge threat to the resort. However they are exposed to wind damage. I expect there will be a lot. The Stella Maris airstrip is on low ground on the west side of Long Island. It probably flooded. I saw video of the Queens Highway running down the west side of the island, flooded about a foot deep. Unknown when this was taken or how much worse it got.
I agree with you on the wind damage and flooding .... I expect much of the area north of Stella Maris will also experience some flooding, though the mangroves may be their salvation as well. Seymours in particular has a couple of areas that could be badly impacted by surge driven by onshore winds.

I just hope everybody stays safe.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 3m3 minutes ago
Car submerged in water in #Norfolk, #Virginia. Photo credit: Samanth Davis. #flood #VAwx
Quoting 199. terstorm:

Watches went up Tuesday evening, warnings Wednesday, I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong.


They did but the NHC was only forecasting a 65 mph system only to find themselves in the middle of a cat 4 instead.
206. sigh
Quoting 188. Jedkins01:

If I am wrong about the response time from the NHC with the Bahamas, I'm fine with being corrected


The Bahamas is an independent nation with its own government agencies. The American National Hurricane Center has no responsibility whatsoever to issue warnings for other nations, so it's kind of silly to fault them for not doing so in a timely manner.
wow. This station in Cockburn Town Bahamas reported 108 MPH winds with gusts 141+ before going off line.
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.3.78088
A little decorum goes along way... You never know what a novice may discover because of a fresh mind free of preconceived notions.
Quoting 201. kilgores97:

This blog should be used as a tool to help folks learn. Many inexperienced people are voicing opinions and questions, but all too often, others, who think they are the last word on things, only want to criticize and bash those that may not know as much about storms and things in the atmosphere that control them.

Quoting 187. SC29483:

Count me in with the others trying to understand how this works.
Yeah, I see why the models seem to have a bi-modal split in the tracks. Two thirds of the runs indicate a N-NE path out to sea, and a third or so indicate a more N, maybe even slight NW shift making a close coastal approach.

It seems to me that Joaquin is being stretched along the NW to SE direction in the latest frames. The dry air and high pressure are pushing into it from NE, while the front along the east coast is pulling at it from NW. And it is being further squeezed by conditions in the gulf.
Anyone know why there were no Reporters in the Bahamas?.When a storm is threatening Bermuda Jim Cantore is the first one there.
Quoting 207. calkevin77:

wow. This station in Cockburn Town Bahamas reported 108 MPH winds with gusts 141+ before going off line.
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.3.78088



Wow. They've been in the eastern eyewall for quite some time too. It's a beautiful island. I can't imagine any structures that can withstand that strong of wind for long.

Quoting 205. StormTrackerScott:



They did but the NHC was only forecasting a 65 mph system only to find themselves in the middle of a cat 4 instead.


unfortunately, and I suspect they'd tell us the same thing, the skill in forecasting track is fairly good but the skill in forecasting intensity is not there yet. It's definitely an area that needs worked on. I agree, surprises like this are not welcome and they're dangerous.
Quoting 211. MeteorologistTV:

Anyone know why there were no Reporters in the Bahamas?.When a storm is threatening Bermuda Jim Cantore is the first one there.


he is in Charleston....
Quoting 205. StormTrackerScott:



They did but the NHC was only forecasting a 65 mph system only to find themselves in the middle of a cat 4 instead.


The NHC has improved a lot with forecasting path but to me they really haven't been able to improve that much with wind speed. Usually they under forecast.
Quoting 117. IDTH:

I thought sars explanation last night cleared this up, but I don't understand how a storm is getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough but yet its projected to go east through a ridge where there is higher pressures. In the run from the hwrf showed me that there would be a lot more convection on the east side connected I believe to a weakness to the east but that is not the case right now. I don't understand the science right now.
You've kind of lost me on this one. I don't understand what you mean by "getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough". That's not happening. There's some outflow into the trough right off the SE coast, but that's not absorbing moisture from the storm. Maybe a combination of the WV loop and surface map might help.



On the surface chart, we see a surface low attached to the stalled front/trough offshore from central Florida. There's a closed upper low (not shown on a surface chart) that's just south my house in SE Alabama. This should act as the kicker to get another non-tropical low to form on the trough as the upper low moves east. The whole trough is going to be stalled or move very slowly east just off the SE coast for several days, contributing to the heavy rains. This trough is strong enough to break down the upper level ridge to the north and northeast of Joaquin, but it's not moving east fast enough to "capture" joaquin and turn it west. Joaquin wants to turn toward not only a weakness, but one that's far enough away to give the storm some elbow room. Lows tend to avoid close contact with another low if there's one further away it can feel. Looking to the NE, we see another trough, containing what will soon to be Kate. A deepening low on a stationary trough but far enough away not to induce an immediate battle. Perfect conditions for a hurricane to want to chase. That's the ultimate direction Joaquin will turn, not to the west. It will ride that trough under the Azores high, shown just off the map as the "1024" number.



On the water vapor, you can clearly see the ULL spinning at the border of AL and FL. The non-tropical low is going to form on the trough just on the to the north of the picture and continue mostly north. That's going to keep that trough anchored or moving very slowly east from the coast. Below the area of dry air shown to the NE of Joaquin is the trough the storm is going to ride away from the CONUS. Soon to be Kate is embedded in the trough to the far right. It's a very attractive travel route for Joaquin. The storm will continue to drift slowly north for about the next 24-36 hours as it's caught in the squeeze between the two troughs. The turn to the northeast should be rather abrupt then, and Joaquin is going to rocket off into that trough, toward Kate. That should be an interesting event as well.

I hope I haven't made things worse. The one thing I've learned over my 55 years of watching these storms is that they can turn faster than I would have thought, and that the NHC is a lot more on top of these things than I am. There's still a chance that far eastern parts Cape Cod and Nova Scotia could feel the effects of Joaquin, but even that's looking less likely than it was last night. The one fly in the ointment, as Dr. Masters wrote, would be any resumption of a sustained movement west, indicating the SE trough is trying to capture the storm. That's very unlikely now, but not impossible, so it's something to watch. The one thing I'd caution about is that, during an EWRC, we often see wobbles, so a short term movement to the west isn't out of the question, but not one that continues past the EWRC.
NNE.
Quoting 214. tiggeriffic:



he is in Charleston....


and it's doing nothing here at present...
Quoting 184. BioWeather:

If someone already answered me, please forgive. I'm trying to watch this and grade papers at the same time. Probably not a good idea! lol

I am usually just a lurker when we have a storm out there but I'm confused by some of the posts that I am reading. I get what it means when the storm rides along the edge of the trough, but I don't understand why a negative tilt wouldn't make it turn slightly left along the boundary. Sorry for being so "green" but I'd really like to understand, if someone would please explain it. Thank you.


There's a stationary front running along the south-east US:

http://www.wunderground.com/maps/

The front is simultaneously impeding Joaquin, but also making it a very bad time in the Bahamas, and in NC/SC where it is the impetus for all the rain - aided by the hurricane and inland trough,
The NAM doesn't count/matter right? Cause it doesn't have upper level info for these types of storms? Cause 72 hours out it looks like it is sitting on Hatteras...
data/gfs/20151002/12/gfs_namer_006_300_wnd_ht_s.gifLets compare and contrast... is the high where the model says it should be? Is the u'll where they say it should be???

From Mark Suddeth ( echoing Dr. Masters ) " We won’t ignore Joaquin but another, completely separate, weather event is unfolding across a good deal of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

The culprit is NOT Joaquin – probably not even indirectly. Instead, it’s the powerful dynamics of the upper level system dropping across the region. This will tap in to the abundant moisture plume coming up from the southwest Atlantic to drop incredible amounts of rain. It is not out of the question that isolated areas will see more than 15 inches of rain when all is said and done. This is obviously too much too soon and will certainly create dangerous conditions. The problem is, there is no way to know exactly what geographic locations will be impacted the most. It seems likely that widespread flooding is possible with a concentration on parts of South Carolina from the midlands to the coast. Needless to say, slow down while driving, keep kids out of flood waters and completely avoid flooded roads even if you “know the area” or have an SUV/truck. Common sense must prevail or people will die, it’s that simple.

Basically we have a stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters that is the focusing point for extremely heavy rain moving in from the warm waters of the Atlantic. Add to the mix a potent upper level low, which was initially thought to be likely to capture Joaquin and bring it in to the region, and the set up is there for catastrophic flooding in some areas.

Before getting in to the potential for how bad this could be, note that all along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region there will be an increase in strong winds, especially from the Delmarva and in to southern to central New Jersey. The strong high pressure over Canada combined with the low pressure associated with the stalled front will increase the pressure gradient or a tightening of the winds across the coastal waters. Some locations along the New Jersey coast may see winds gust over 55 mph. Additionally, higher than normal tides, large waves bashing the immediate coast and possible heavy rain will make this weekend quite miserable.

However, it appears that the rain will have the most impact from this weather system. After reading some of the forecast discussions from area NWS offices, it seems apparent now that the chance for “life threatening flooding” could occur in some areas, especially in South Carolina and more specifically, in and around Charleston.
Quoting 221. matrcrane:

data/gfs/20151002/12/gfs_namer_006_300_wnd_ht_s.gifLets compare and contrast... is the high where the model says it should be? Is the u'll where they say it should be???



Area of High pressure stronger and further south? The Trough is more negatively tilted through Florida? U'll digging deeper than expected???
Quoting 223. matrcrane:


Area of High pressure stronger and further south? The Trough is more negatively tilted through Florida? U'll digging deeper than expected???
Why everything has to be worst?
Quoting 214. tiggeriffic:



he is in Charleston....


Correct me if I am wrong.. but for the last ten years... isn't the safest place to be in a Hurricane ... where ever he goes first :)
Quoting 217. Gearsts:

NNE.

Yaeh, it looks like it has finally turned the way it's supposed to...
Quoting 212. tornadodude:



Wow. They've been in the eastern eyewall for quite some time too. It's a beautiful island. I can't imagine any structures that can withstand that strong of wind for long.


wow 141 mph
nvm, must be tired
Quoting 211. MeteorologistTV:

Anyone know why there were no Reporters in the Bahamas?.When a storm is threatening Bermuda Jim Cantore is the first one there.
Baha and the other folks from the Bahamas can answer better than me, but I think the only places with good footage of a violent storm are also too dangerous for a reporter and TV crew. There's also no 5 star hotels and no escape route when things go bad. A place like Nassau, where a reporter would much rather hang out, have overcast skies with a 14 mph wind. Not much to report on there.
Quoting 211. MeteorologistTV:

Anyone know why there were no Reporters in the Bahamas?.When a storm is threatening Bermuda Jim Cantore is the first one there.


My take, a couple of reasons. One is the impact going on from the southeast and northward in the US and the other is I believe that the storm is impacting islands with not a lot of population. It may have been different if New Providence or Grand Bahama were directly impacted.
Quoting 219. JeffreyLXV:



There's a stationary front running along the south-east US:

http://www.wunderground.com/maps/

The front is simultaneously impeding Joaquin, but also making it a very bad time in the Bahamas, and in NC/SC where it is the impetus for all the rain - aided by the hurricane and inland trough,


Thank you! So it actually rides along the stationary front, not the trough? Is that correct?
Quoting 225. Orcasystems:



Correct me if I am wrong.. but for the last ten years... isn't the safest place to be in a Hurricane ... where ever he goes first :)


I guess that is why we haven't gotten the worst of the rain yet....hope he stays till JQ is gone...just saying
Or it could be a wobble....need more frames to verify.

Quoting 226. tkeith:

Yaeh, it looks like it has finally turned the way it's supposed to...
Quoting 205. StormTrackerScott:



They did but the NHC was only forecasting a 65 mph system only to find themselves in the middle of a cat 4 instead.
As usual, the big problem with these systems seems to be less the track and more the intensity. Having a 65 mph storm sit over your house for 2 days is bad, but that same system at cat 4 is a catastrophe.

We gotta improve intensity forecasting.
236. vis0
look at the front(s) over the midwset & westward. Their motion over the NW USofA &  SW Canada in which direction are they going could it be called retrograding??? i think Taz flip the E caost with the W coast cause moisture is coming off the GoMx/ATL like an ePAC Atmos river, might be short term but that ENSO-e kid is forcing a flow (when blocked by the ATL RRRr) to parallel the eCoast
Quoting 209. Gearsts:




That is the strongest WWB of the year and this burst is quickly warming the ENSO regions. Looking like this will seal the deal for the strongest El-Nino since records have been kept going back to 1950.
hurricane starting to move north now..
Quoting 223. matrcrane:


Area of High pressure stronger and further south? The Trough is more negatively tilted through Florida? U'll digging deeper than expected???
Short answer is no.
Quoting 233. tiggeriffic:



I guess that is why we haven't gotten the worst of the rain yet....hope he stays till JQ is gone...just saying


Unfortunately, the Cantore shield isn't gonna work this time. We weren't progged to start the "heavy event" until this evening anyhow.

Unfortunately, the forecast amounts haven't budged. This is happening.
Quoting 233. tiggeriffic:



I guess that is why we haven't gotten the worst of the rain yet....hope he stays till JQ is gone...just saying


In our area they are saying we might not get as much rain as they initially thought. I don't quite understand it, but things didn't quite come together. Hopefully that's the case for everyone!
Quoting 240. nash36:



Unfortunately, the Cantore shield isn't gonna work this time. We weren't progged to start the "heavy event" until this evening anyhow.

Unfortunately, the forecast amounts haven't budged. This is happening.


yes, but cant I get an attagirl for at least trying?
Anyone know if Eleuthera has received much impact? It's west of Nassau about 50 or 60 miles I think.


now!!!!
Quoting 230. sar2401:

Baha and the other folks from the Bahamas can answer better than me, but I think the only places with good footage of a violent storm are also too dangerous for a reporter and TV crew. There's also no 5 star hotels and no escape route when things go bad. A place like Nassau, where a reporter would much rather hang out, have overcast skies with a 14 mph wind. Not much to report on there.


Some of the Cays that drug dealers used to own or frequent probably took a pounding.
Quoting 206. sigh:



The Bahamas is an independent nation with its own government agencies. The American National Hurricane Center has no responsibility whatsoever to issue warnings for other nations, so it's kind of silly to fault them for not doing so in a timely manner.
However, NHC is also a WMO organization, the one with responsibility for tropical cyclone management in this basin. They can indeed be faulted, if one wished to do so, since governments often act on their advice. In fact they are EXPECTED to act on NHC advice.

Rather than finding fault, though, I think it would be to all our advantage if we identified what went wrong and corrected it in future. I already see NHC doing that with the Key Messages after Erika. More can be fixed.
DEar Sar great explanation of the future track of Joaquin. The Euro computer Forecast Model has been predicting this scenario for days, way ahead of the GFS. The NHC knew the outcome all along but they wanted to make sure it was 100% accurate, as I give them two thumbs up. In Summary with Joaquin close but no CIGAR
Quoting 218. SCwannabee:



and it's doing nothing here at present...


He's probably getting checked in/set up. He knows the event doesn't begin until later tonight, lasting through Sunday. I'm still at work, so I haven't had the opportunity to see if he's had any live shots yet. If so, does anyone know where in the area he is? Is he at CoC again?
Quoting 244. hurricanes2018:



now!!!!


Why is that one model taking it back towards South Carolina? Any atmospheric explanation or simply a far outlier of an unreliable model?
Hurricane Joaquin's Bahamas Impacts: Total Blackout Reported on Three Hardest-Hit Islands





watching this hurricane!!a few modeles back to the west
Quoting 211. MeteorologistTV:

Anyone know why there were no Reporters in the Bahamas?.When a storm is threatening Bermuda Jim Cantore is the first one there.
Frankly, I'd expect them to be in the US, reporting on newsworthy wx along the east coast. What TWC needs is a news sharing agreement with small countries in the Caribbean, so they can have "local reports" without having to spend $$ to get their own reporters out there.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

You've kind of lost me on this one. I don't understand what you mean by "getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough". That's not happening. There's some outflow into the trough right off the SE coast, but that's not absorbing moisture from the storm. Maybe a combination of the WV loop and surface map might help.



On the surface chart, we see a surface low attached to the stalled front/trough offshore from central Florida. There's a closed upper low (not shown on a surface chart) that's just south my house in SE Alabama. This should act as the kicker to get another non-tropical low to form on the trough as the upper low moves east. The whole trough is going to be stalled or move very slowly east just off the SE coast for several days, contributing to the heavy rains. This trough is strong enough to break down the upper level ridge to the north and northeast of Joaquin, but it's not moving east fast enough to "capture" joaquin and turn it west. Joaquin wants to turn toward not only a weakness, but one that's far enough away to give the storm some elbow room. Lows tend to avoid close contact with another low if there's one further away it can feel. Looking to the NE, we see another trough, containing what will soon to be Kate. A deepening low on a stationary trough but far enough away not to induce an immediate battle. Perfect conditions for a hurricane to want to chase. That's the ultimate direction Joaquin will turn, not to the west. It will ride that trough under the Azores high, shown just off the map as the "1024" number.



On the water vapor, you can clearly see the ULL spinning at the border of AL and FL. The non-tropical low is going to form on the trough just on the to the north of the picture and continue mostly north. That's going to keep that trough anchored or moving very slowly east from the coast. Below the area of dry air shown to the NE of Joaquin is the trough the storm is going to ride away from the CONUS. Soon to be Kate is embedded in the trough to the far right. It's a very attractive travel route for Joaquin. The storm will continue to drift slowly north for about the next 24-36 hours as it's caught in the squeeze between the two troughs. The turn to the northeast should be rather abrupt then, and Joaquin is going to rocket off into that trough, toward Kate. That should be an interesting event as well.

I hope I haven't made things worse. The one thing I've learned over my 55 years of watching these storms is that they can turn faster than I would have thought, and that the NHC is a lot more on top of these things than I am. There's still a chance that far eastern parts Cape Cod and Nova Scotia could feel the effects of Joaquin, but even that's looking less likely than it was last night. The one fly in the ointment, as Dr. Masters wrote, would be any resumption of a sustained movement west, indicating the SE trough is trying to capture the storm. That's very unlikely now, but not impossible, so it's something to watch. The one thing I'd caution about is that, during an EWRC, we often see wobbles, so a short term movement to the west isn't out of the question, but not one that continues past the EWRC.

Thanks for the detailed post Sar. I think I understand now. I just could not visualize it before.
Quoting 232. BioWeather:



Thank you! So it actually rides along the stationary front, not the trough? Is that correct?
No, it will ride the trough to the right of Joaquin, toward soon to be Kate, not the stationary front along the SE coast.
Quoting 237. StormTrackerScott:



That is the strongest WWB of the year and this burst is quickly warming the ENSO regions. Looking like this will seal the deal for the strongest El-Nino since records have been kept going back to 1950.

On a Barometric Pressure note between Darwin and Tahiti -35.90 or rounded to -36!! How about that for going into the fall season!! Perhaps the strongest El Nino in 50+ years. Source SOI index
Quoting 185. Sangria:



My confusion exactly. I thought it was supposed to go "around" the ridge on the west side of the high pressure. With that thought, it was looking less likely that it could do that with the ridge pushing so far west.
Sangria, PM
Quoting 216. sar2401:

You've kind of lost me on this one. I don't understand what you mean by "getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough". That's not happening. There's some outflow into the trough right off the SE coast, but that's not absorbing moisture from the storm. Maybe a combination of the WV loop and surface map might help....


Is the passage of Joaquin to the south of the ridge of high pressure a new track? My understanding was the high pressure would be eroded by the trough being pushed off the East Coast... Then Joaquin could go NE with some help from 90L.
Really having a hard time understanding why a cargo ship would plow through a cat4 hurricane. Any experts on here to give me reasoning?
Look at the current 24-hour wind shear change...looks like a path for this storm to move up into the East coast. Btw I know this isn't a track but it would actually allow the storm to stay more powerful and longer due to less winds against it if for some way it is captured by the ULL.
Quoting 225. Orcasystems:



Correct me if I am wrong.. but for the last ten years... isn't the safest place to be in a Hurricane ... where ever he goes first :)
Hey, Orca! Long time no see!
Quoting 253. SunnyDaysFla:


Thanks for the detailed post Sar. I think I understand now. I just could not visualize it before.
You're welcome. I'm just an old-time amatuer, but it looks like, on satellite, that Joaquin should want to turn west into that trough off the SE coast when it's going to ride the larger trough off to the right. I've seen it before and thought the NHC and models were nuts, but they didn't turn out to be so. It's that pull from a deepening low further away that makes the difference in this case, and should allow the US to dodge a major bullet. Keeping Joaquin far enough offshore, with all the other problems being experienced on the coast, is a Godsend.
Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:
Hurricane Joaquin's Bahamas Impacts: Total Blackout Reported on Three Hardest-Hit Islands


I don't know why people think a storm of this size won't take out the communications. I just hope they hold off saying they are "wiped out" until they can confirm.

CNN had done that to the Fl. Keys after Andrew because they couldn't get hold of anyone. It was only our extension cord cut in Fl. City.
Quoting 258. Bucsboltsfan:
Really having a hard time understanding why a cargo ship would plow through a cat4 hurricane. Any experts on here to give me reasoning?


When the ship left port on Tuesday, this was a mild mannered TS. If you go to gcaptain.com you will find the most information. Click the image of the ship for the full article.
Quoting 249. Plaza23:



Why is that one model taking it back towards South Carolina? Any atmospheric explanation or simply a far outlier of an unreliable model?


For some reason the NAM is terrible with hurricanes. Not sure why as it does well for a lot of other things. If someone has a good reason why the NAM is so out of whack, it'd be a good thing to post.
Quoting 264. rwdobson:



For some reason the NAM is terrible with hurricanes. Not sure why as it does well for a lot of other things. If someone has a good reason why the NAM is so out of whack, it'd be a good thing to post.


I heard a met say that it wasn't meant to forecast tropical stuff...other than that IDK
MJO is clustered in phase 7 and phase 8. I guess it will be busy around here for some time
Quoting 263. Greg01:



When the ship left port on Tuesday, this was a mild mannered TS.


Ok but cant they redirect?


heavy rain in the northeast again on october 2 2015 this rain is not from the hurricane
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink /MJO/foregfs.shtml
Quoting 256. hartley1119:

Sangria, PM


backatchya
Quoting 258. Bucsboltsfan:

Really having a hard time understanding why a cargo ship would plow through a cat4 hurricane. Any experts on here to give me reasoning?
Quoting 258. Bucsboltsfan:

Really having a hard time understanding why a cargo ship would plow through a cat4 hurricane. Any experts on here to give me reasoning?


Hard to understand, very sad news for us here in San Juan , Puerto Rico. Many families, waiting for news about their love one . hoping for the best, fearing the worst. Beyond me how authorities aloud a cargo ship in route to Puerto Rico, to go through a Cat 4, Hurricane.
Quoting 257. JeffreyLXV:



Is the passage of Joaquin to the south of the ridge of high pressure a new track? My understanding was the high pressure would be eroded by the trough being pushed off the East Coast... Then Joaquin could go NE with some help from 90L.
The high pressure being eroded is directly north of Joaquin now, not the much larger 1024 high further to the NE. That's the ridge the storm will ride under with the help of the trough to the NE of the storm.
Quoting 272. sar2401:

The high pressure being eroded is directly north of Joaquin now, not the much larger 1024 high further to the NE. That's the ridge the storm will ride under with the help of the trough to the NE of the storm.
thanks for said that i did not know that at all
Quoting 260. BahaHurican:

Hey, Orca! Long time no see!


I pop in fairly often to watch... but seldom post.
275. 900MB
Quoting 251. hurricanes2018:






watching this hurricane!!a few modeles back to the west


Hmmm, couple models giving Montauk a little chin music.
Quoting 243. tkeith:

Anyone know if Eleuthera has received much impact? It's west of Nassau about 50 or 60 miles I think.
Everybody's as ready as can be there, but so far I think only part of the island is receiving TS force winds, along with some rain....

Hearing a report now that one Zion Baptist Church [there are many in the islands] in United Estates on San Salvador where people were taking shelter has lost at least part of its roof and there are fears that the building will collapse.

Reports are that the winds are shaking houses in Cockburn Town, San Salvador.
Quoting 267. Bucsboltsfan:


Ok but cant they redirect?


Go to gcaptain.com for the best account. It appears they lost propulsion and started taking on water, with a 15 degree list. They were probably unable to run from it at that point.
Quoting 271. HuracanTaino:



Hard to understand, very sad new for us here in San Juan , Puerto Rico, families, waiting for news . hoping for the best, fearing the worst. Beyond me how authorities aloud a cargo ship in route to Puerto Rico, to go through a Cat 4, Hurricane.
Sometimes stupidity over takes common sense.
Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:

Hurricane Joaquin's Bahamas Impacts: Total Blackout Reported on Three Hardest-Hit Islands
From what I'm hearing San Sal may be worse. They still have phone service, and reports are chilling.
Quoting 277. Greg01:



Go to gcaptain.com for the best account. It appears they lost propulsion and started taking on water, with a 15 degree list. They were probably unable to run from it at that point.


Okay, thx.
Quoting 274. Orcasystems:



I pop in fairly often to watch... but seldom post.


I'm not sure about that. I did the math, and you post about 9-10 comments a day. :)
Quoting 267. Bucsboltsfan:



Ok but cant they redirect?
Agree, they get weather updates, this is not 1912, Titanic...
Quoting 271. HuracanTaino:



Hard to understand, very sad new for us here in San Juan , Puerto Rico, families, waiting for news . hoping for the best, fearing the worst. Hard to understand how authorities aloud a cargo ship in route to Puerto Rico, to go through a Cat 4, Hurricane.
The authorities have nothing to do with this. It's the ship owner and skipper that make the decisions. From the few reports I've read, it sounds like she was making passage to the east of the Bahamas in deep water often used by shipping traffic. She lost power after taking on water, and the last report indicated she had a 15 degree list. She apparently started drifting, and is now reported as missing. She could have gone down after battering waves broke her up, since she couldn't keep her bow pointed into the wind without power. She could also be aground on any one of the hundreds of reefs in the area. Whatever happened, I hope the crew survived. It's a dangerous place to sail if something goes wrong.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

You've kind of lost me on this one. I don't understand what you mean by "getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough". That's not happening. There's some outflow into the trough right off the SE coast, but that's not absorbing moisture from the storm. Maybe a combination of the WV loop and surface map might help.



On the surface chart, we see a surface low attached to the stalled front/trough offshore from central Florida. There's a closed upper low (not shown on a surface chart) that's just south my house in SE Alabama. This should act as the kicker to get another non-tropical low to form on the trough as the upper low moves east. The whole trough is going to be stalled or move very slowly east just off the SE coast for several days, contributing to the heavy rains. This trough is strong enough to break down the upper level ridge to the north and northeast of Joaquin, but it's not moving east fast enough to "capture" joaquin and turn it west. Joaquin wants to turn toward not only a weakness, but one that's far enough away to give the storm some elbow room. Lows tend to avoid close contact with another low if there's one further away it can feel. Looking to the NE, we see another trough, containing what will soon to be Kate. A deepening low on a stationary trough but far enough away not to induce an immediate battle. Perfect conditions for a hurricane to want to chase. That's the ultimate direction Joaquin will turn, not to the west. It will ride that trough under the Azores high, shown just off the map as the "1024" number.



On the water vapor, you can clearly see the ULL spinning at the border of AL and FL. The non-tropical low is going to form on the trough just on the to the north of the picture and continue mostly north. That's going to keep that trough anchored or moving very slowly east from the coast. Below the area of dry air shown to the NE of Joaquin is the trough the storm is going to ride away from the CONUS. Soon to be Kate is embedded in the trough to the far right. It's a very attractive travel route for Joaquin. The storm will continue to drift slowly north for about the next 24-36 hours as it's caught in the squeeze between the two troughs. The turn to the northeast should be rather abrupt then, and Joaquin is going to rocket off into that trough, toward Kate. That should be an interesting event as well.

I hope I haven't made things worse. The one thing I've learned over my 55 years of watching these storms is that they can turn faster than I would have thought, and that the NHC is a lot more on top of these things than I am. There's still a chance that far eastern parts Cape Cod and Nova Scotia could feel the effects of Joaquin, but even that's looking less likely than it was last night. The one fly in the ointment, as Dr. Masters wrote, would be any resumption of a sustained movement west, indicating the SE trough is trying to capture the storm. That's very unlikely now, but not impossible, so it's something to watch. The one thing I'd caution about is that, during an EWRC, we often see wobbles, so a short term movement to the west isn't out of the question, but not one that continues past the EWRC.


Thank you for this, quite informative for me.

dumb guy here, watching the nullschool 500 hPa map, wondering why Joaquin doesn't get caught between the low to the west and the high to the east, get sent up to the north, especially if it's begun to move north already.
lol, I give up... trying to embed MSFC and it just won't... heh... very cool perpendicular banding... oh vell...

As of 3pm.
Quoting 281. FunnelVortex:



I'm not sure about that. I did the math, and you post about 9-10 comments a day. :)



Not to bad for a guy who hasn't posted for about 3-4 years :)
I used to be very active... now.. not so much.
Quoting 271. HuracanTaino:



Hard to understand, very sad news for us here in San Juan , Puerto Rico. Many families, waiting for news about their love one . hoping for the best, fearing the worst. Beyond me how authorities aloud a cargo ship in route to Puerto Rico, to go through a Cat 4, Hurricane.


Probably because the company only had $$$ on their minds.
Quoting 257. JeffreyLXV:



Is the passage of Joaquin to the south of the ridge of high pressure a new track? My understanding was the high pressure would be eroded by the trough being pushed off the East Coast... Then Joaquin could go NE with some help from 90L.

Love the avatar, but too bad you can't see all of that bird that landed on his head
Down to 999mb here in West Palm Beach
Quoting 287. Orcasystems:




Not to bad for a guy who hasn't posted for about 3-4 years :)
I used to be very active... now.. not so much.


Well that was assuming you came here every day, lol
276. BahaHurican

Thanks Baha
it does not seem like a real EL NINO year. we have formidable Joachim in the northwest atlantic and now we see a tropical disturbance 10N 3oW with the potential to develop into kate during the middle of next week
Quoting 291. FunnelVortex:



Well that was assuming you came here every day, lol


Way back in the good old days... this was a very fun place to be. There was a core group of people who were here every day and we had a ball... then things went a little crazy... and most of us just stopped. Baha & Tigger were part of that core group :)
Quoting 265. tiggeriffic:



I heard a met say that it wasn't meant to forecast tropical stuff...other than that IDK
Correct. It's the North American Mesoscale model. It's run at high resolution but only for the land areas of North America and up to about 150 miles offshore. It was built to model mesoscale systems in North America, not tropical systems offshore. It's not used as part of the suite of tropical models by the NHC.


more north littie more faster now
Quoting 295. sar2401:

Correct. It's the North American Mesoscale model. It's run at high resolution but only for the land areas of North America and up to about 150 miles offshore. It was built to model mesoscale systems in North America, not tropical systems offshore. It's not used as part of the suite of tropical models by the NHC.


woo hoo I got one right lol
Quoting 294. Orcasystems:



Way back in the good old days... this was a very fun place to be. There was a core group of people who were here every day and we had a ball... then things went a little crazy... and most of us just stopped. Baha & Tigger were part of that core group :)


I see. I joined in 2012, right around the time Sandy formed as a TD south of Cuba. And let's just say my first ride on the blog was pretty wild tracking that thing up the coast.

In fact I was one of the first to call a NE landfall. I guess it was just a good guess.


starting to move more north this hurricane
Shear path is clear for this storm to move directly North if it could, where it could possibly restrengthen. Just going over possibilities once again. Any chance this storm moves into that area of no shear and regains development?
Quoting 258. Bucsboltsfan:

Really having a hard time understanding why a cargo ship would plow through a cat4 hurricane. Any experts on here to give me reasoning?
I've been wondering about this myself. I would have gone around the west side, not right into the teeth of a tropical cyclone .... maybe hubris.....
Quoting 262. kwgirl:



I don't know why people think a storm of this size won't take out the communications. I just hope they hold off saying they are "wiped out" until they can confirm.

CNN had done that to the Fl. Keys after Andrew because they couldn't get hold of anyone. It was only our extension cord cut in Fl. City.
Someone else who understands. I don't understand the thinking that expects cell towers and above ground lines to continue uncompromised in the midst of 130 mph sustained winds ..... Out here I know BEC has the practice of turning off power in an area if a line is downed until they can get out to fix it. To me, the fact that they have a policy in place implies that they do expect some problems.

Just heard read on the radio a text message from Provo in Turks and Caicos saying extensive damage there, with the entire downtown area in Provo is flooded, and there has been extensive damage to homes there. The power is off over the entire island...
Quoting 249. Plaza23:



Why is that one model taking it back towards South Carolina? Any atmospheric explanation or simply a far outlier of an unreliable model?
Just to see Taz happy.
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

I've been wondering about this myself. I would have gone around the west side, not right into the teeth of a tropical cyclone .... maybe hubris.....
Someone else who understands. I don't understand the thinking that expects cell towers and above ground lines to continue uncompromised in the midst of 130 mph sustained winds ..... Out here I know BEC has the practice of turning off power in an area if a line is downed until they can get out to fix it. To me, the fact that they have a policy in place implies that they do expect some problems.

Just heard read on the radio a text message from Provo in Turks and Caicos saying extensive damage there, with the entire downtown area in Provo is flooded, and there has been extensive damage to homes there. The power is off over the entire island...



prayers........
TXNT23 KNES 021806
TCSNTL

A. 11L (JOAQUIN)

B. 02/1745Z

C. 23.9N

D. 74.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CLOUD FILLED EYE EMBEDDED .9 DEGREES IN VIS FOR A DT OF
5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/1234Z 23.3N 74.8W SSMIS


...VELASCO
ZNS live stream is the best place to know what's going, no one can seem to call in but they are texting the show like crazy
http://original.livestream.com/znsbahamas

been so long I have forgotten how to use the link button
Joaquin: Possibly the most expensive hurricane in US history that never made landfall in the US.


Very cool upper level banding... also... Prayers for those on San Salvador Island!
308. IDTH
Quoting 216. sar2401:



I bet you're getting tired of writing long responses to make me understand. I get it now, it's supposed to go around the ridge where there is another trough, that makes more sense, I also typed that very poorly, because I was in a rush. I still don't think it's a given that it happens because a few wobbles here and there could change that., and thank you for yet again another long explanation trying to make me understand the situation.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

You've kind of lost me on this one. I don't understand what you mean by "getting some of its moisture absorbed by the trough". That's not happening. There's some outflow into the trough right off the SE coast, but that's not absorbing moisture from the storm. Maybe a combination of the WV loop and surface map might help.



On the surface chart, we see a surface low attached to the stalled front/trough offshore from central Florida. There's a closed upper low (not shown on a surface chart) that's just south my house in SE Alabama. This should act as the kicker to get another non-tropical low to form on the trough as the upper low moves east. The whole trough is going to be stalled or move very slowly east just off the SE coast for several days, contributing to the heavy rains. This trough is strong enough to break down the upper level ridge to the north and northeast of Joaquin, but it's not moving east fast enough to "capture" joaquin and turn it west. Joaquin wants to turn toward not only a weakness, but one that's far enough away to give the storm some elbow room. Lows tend to avoid close contact with another low if there's one further away it can feel. Looking to the NE, we see another trough, containing what will soon to be Kate. A deepening low on a stationary trough but far enough away not to induce an immediate battle. Perfect conditions for a hurricane to want to chase. That's the ultimate direction Joaquin will turn, not to the west. It will ride that trough under the Azores high, shown just off the map as the "1024" number.



On the water vapor, you can clearly see the ULL spinning at the border of AL and FL. The non-tropical low is going to form on the trough just on the to the north of the picture and continue mostly north. That's going to keep that trough anchored or moving very slowly east from the coast. Below the area of dry air shown to the NE of Joaquin is the trough the storm is going to ride away from the CONUS. Soon to be Kate is embedded in the trough to the far right. It's a very attractive travel route for Joaquin. The storm will continue to drift slowly north for about the next 24-36 hours as it's caught in the squeeze between the two troughs. The turn to the northeast should be rather abrupt then, and Joaquin is going to rocket off into that trough, toward Kate. That should be an interesting event as well.

I hope I haven't made things worse. The one thing I've learned over my 55 years of watching these storms is that they can turn faster than I would have thought, and that the NHC is a lot more on top of these things than I am. There's still a chance that far eastern parts Cape Cod and Nova Scotia could feel the effects of Joaquin, but even that's looking less likely than it was last night. The one fly in the ointment, as Dr. Masters wrote, would be any resumption of a sustained movement west, indicating the SE trough is trying to capture the storm. That's very unlikely now, but not impossible, so it's something to watch. The one thing I'd caution about is that, during an EWRC, we often see wobbles, so a short term movement to the west isn't out of the question, but not one that continues past the EWRC.

I have been lurking here for many years I just wanted to come on to THANK YOU for taking the time to help me understand all this stuff. People like you are the reason this blog is the best place for anyone who wants to learn about meteorology. This is probably the BEST POST I've ever seen here. Once agin thanks! Your awesome☺️
Quoting 306. pipelines:

Joaquin: Possibly the most expensive hurricane in US history that never made landfall in the US.


Source?
According to my NWS, Wilmington, NC..a building full of degree mets..moisture from Joaquin is being fed into the Carolinas

Heavy rain and flooding over the Cape Fear region this morning is part of a stream of moisture extending down the Gulf Stream to the periphery of Hurricane Joaquin. This heavy rain should shift inland into South Carolina tonight and Saturday, then return to the coast and into southeastern North Carolina Sunday and Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential of 8 to 12 inches of rain in parts of the eastern Carolinas over the next few days.

here is a picture they provided to illustrate it more..



and an animated gif



Quoting 294. Orcasystems:



Way back in the good old days... this was a very fun place to be. There was a core group of people who were here every day and we had a ball... then things went a little crazy... and most of us just stopped. Baha & Tigger were part of that core group :)


I joined back in 2006, I used to spend every second after school on here lol
Be prepared just in case folks like always. Won't give reasons just this is a devastating storm for the Bahamas and of course the weather models are most likely correct and 80>% this goes OTS but I think there's a slight chance for something else. Many Prayers for areas currently affected :/
Quoting 312. tornadodude:



I joined back in 2006, I used to spend every second after school on here lol


I joined in 2006 but I stand alone. :)
315. IDTH
Quoting 311. ncstorm:

According to my NWS, Wilmington, NC..a building full of degree mets..moisture from Joaquin is being fed into the Carolinas

Heavy rain and flooding over the Cape Fear region this morning is part of a stream of moisture extending down the Gulf Stream to the periphery of Hurricane Joaquin. This heavy rain should shift inland into South Carolina tonight and Saturday, then return to the coast and into southeastern North Carolina Sunday and Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential of 8 to 12 inches of rain in parts of the eastern Carolinas over the next few days.

here is a picture they provided to illustrate it more..



and an animated gif





So I wasn't wrong about the moisture, I mean just looking at it on satellite made me think that moisture was being taken from Joaquin. (Edit) you can also see the trough to the east trying to interact with it, i saw a little nudge to the east with Joaquin.
Clemson had street flooding last night.
0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SE CLEMSON 34.67N 82.80W
10/01/2015 PICKENS SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN THE
WOODLAND HEIGHTS AND DELLWOOD NEIGHBORHOODS...NEAR SMALL
TRIBUTARIES TO TWELVE MILE CREEK.

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNE CLEMSON 34.74N 82.80W
10/01/2015 PICKENS SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN CENTRAL. MAW BRIDGE
ROAD...BLUE JAY ROAD...SPRING FOREST DRIVE...BROCK
STREET.


Charleston had high tides again this afternoon inundating roads.

Trees were down overnight around the Raleigh, NC area. Yesterday afternoon a tree killed one and injured a second that were heading south on I-95 near Falcon, NC.

Numerous impassable roads and trees down in Wilmington, NC.
Quoting 306. pipelines:

Joaquin: Possibly the most expensive hurricane in US history that never made landfall in the US.
The problems along the east coast are not attributed to Wahkeen in anyway.It is the trough and strong pressure gradient that is causing the problems on the beach in the N.E and Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 315. IDTH:


So I wasn't wrong about the moisture, I mean just looking at it on satellite made me think that moisture was being taken from Joaquin.


No you weren't..the NWS backs you up as well..
Link
Quoting 311. ncstorm:

According to my NWS, Wilmington, NC..a building full of degree mets..moisture from Joaquin is being fed into the Carolinas

Heavy rain and flooding over the Cape Fear region this morning is part of a stream of moisture extending down the Gulf Stream to the periphery of Hurricane Joaquin.


From Jeff Masters 12:30pm blog:

"The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MW R3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding."
Taken at Wrightsville Beach, NC today..(WWAY)

Rescue still on duty..A nod to the first responders who will unfortunately have a busy weekend..Keep them in your thoughts..

Once more we here in South Florida have been spared, if this would have come to us we would be in the same conditions like our neighbors. Its pretty scary that this monster is still a couple of hundred miles due east of us, just thinking about our neighbors.
Quoting 321. ncstorm:

Taken at Wrightsville Beach, NC today..(WWAY)

Rescue still on duty..A nod to the first responders who will unfortunately have a busy weekend..Keep them in your thoughts..




I'm not sure I'd want to be standing right there!
324. MahFL
Just to clrarify :
From NWS Columbia, SC :

".A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE NEAR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTLY BECAUSE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST."

Is what could bring a 1000 year rain event.
One thing is for sure, that ULL south of Bermuda is TRUCKIN'!
Quoting 319. JeffreyLXV:

Link

From Jeff Masters 12:30pm blog:

"The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MW R3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding."


I get that and I believe that event Dr. Masters is speaking on is for later this evening through Sunday for those inland and we then get it on Sun-Monday but the additional moisture WE were experiencing this morning was being pulled from Joaquin per our own NWS..




...nvm
Quoting 315. IDTH:


So I wasn't wrong about the moisture, I mean just looking at it on satellite made me think that moisture was being taken from Joaquin. (Edit) you can also see the trough to the east trying to interact with it, i saw a little nudge to the east with Joaquin.


Moisture isn't necessarily being "taken" from it, rather Joaquin is feeding that trough because it just opened an outflow channel for all of its heat and moisture to its NW.
if anyone has any updates on the missing cargo ship El Faro, PLEASE wumail me

one of my co-worker's hubby is a merchant seaman, onboard that ship

thank you so very much

peace, aqua
Quoting 312. tornadodude:



I joined back in 2006, I used to spend every second after school on here lol


I don't remember you at all.


something spiining next to the hurricane
Signal Warning #1 (Standby) for Hong Kong
Blue Typhoon Warning for Guangxi


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MUJIGAE (1522)
3:00 AM JST October 3 2015
============================
In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mujigae (985 hPa) located at 17.9N 116.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 19.9N 112.9E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) South China Sea
48 HRS: 21.4N 110.1E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Southern China
72 HRS: 22.7N 108.1E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Southern China
Quoting 312. tornadodude:



I joined back in 2006, I used to spend every second after school on here lol


I don't remember your nick... and I see the old Grothar is still here also :)
Quoting 319. JeffreyLXV:

Link


From Jeff Masters 12:30pm blog:

"The rain will be due to what meteorologists call a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE) (see this paper on them, h/t to Stu Ostro of TWC: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MW R3243.1). In a Predecessor Rain Event, tropical moisture well out ahead of a landfalling tropical cyclone interacts with a surface front and upper-level trough to produce heavy rainfall, often with significant inland flooding."
I have to wonder if it wasn't for Joaquin would this event be happening? A 1 in 1000 year flooding is something folks up in the Carolinas would not have seen in their lifetimes and no it is not hype, especially when you see a chart like this.

This is just a 1 day QPF total, remember higher elevations will pick up more than this and other localized spots.

335. 900MB
Quoting 312. tornadodude:



I joined back in 2006, I used to spend every second after school on here lol


Lets not get into the StormW drama :)
Quoting 335. 900MB:



Lets not get into the ****** drama :)


ROFL... I would never have said that nick.... I would have said J*V :)
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:
I've been wondering about this myself. I would have gone around the west side, not right into the teeth of a tropical cyclone .... maybe hubris.....
Someone else who understands. I don't understand the thinking that expects cell towers and above ground lines to continue uncompromised in the midst of 130 mph sustained winds ..... Out here I know BEC has the practice of turning off power in an area if a line is downed until they can get out to fix it. To me, the fact that they have a policy in place implies that they do expect some problems.

Just heard read on the radio a text message from Provo in Turks and Caicos saying extensive damage there, with the entire downtown area in Provo is flooded, and there has been extensive damage to homes there. The power is off over the entire island...
Yeah Baha, we who live on small islands understand perfectly what wind and waves can do. The Bahamas are going to need relief real quick once this storm pulls away. Like tomorrow! I know some Key Westers will be getting aid packages together. The Conchs trace their heritage back to the Bahamas.
Quoting 329. aquak9:
if anyone has any updates on the missing cargo ship El Faro, PLEASE wumail me

one of my co-worker's hubby is a merchant seaman, onboard that ship

thank you so very much

peace, aqua


Go to the US Coast Guard District 7 webpage. This will be your best source of information regarding the missing vessel. All the news outlets will get their information from this district office in Miami.
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20151002 1745 23.9 74.7 T5.5/5.5 11L JOAQUIN
20151002 1145 23.4 75.0 T5.0/6.0 11L JOAQUIN
20151002 0545 23.1 74.6 T5.5/6.0 11L JOAQUIN
20151001 2345 22.9 74.5 T6.0/6.0 11L JOAQUIN
340. flsky
Very interesting to read the scientific forecast discussion for Charleston. They've got a rough weekend coming up.


NWS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 2h2 hours ago

Flash flood watches currently affecting more than 25 million people across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 338. Greg01:


Go to the US Coast Guard District 7 webpage. This will be your best source of information regarding the missing vessel. All the news outlets will get their information from this district office in Miami.
Thank you very much.
Quoting 333. Orcasystems:



I don't remember your nick... and I see the old Grothar is still here also :)


I wasn't usually on until 9pm or so, was a late nighter aha
From NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center Facebook page..you can go there and view the animation..

NOAA NWS Weather Prediction Center

Here is an animation of the WPC forecast charts through the weekend and into the end of next week. A very wet weekend is in store over the eastern U.S. as a large-scale low pressure system interacts with a strong front near the coast together with tropical moisture coming up from the Atlantic. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread inland across the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas through Saturday before focusing more across the southern Appalachians and South Carolina on Sunday and Monday. Upwards of more than a foot of rain is forecast for South Carolina before it ends early next week. Meanwhile, hurricane Joaquin is forecast to stay offshore. Check our previous post for specific areas where rainfall is forecast to be excessive.
Quoting 340. flsky:

Very interesting to read the scientific forecast discussion for Charleston. They've got a rough weekend coming up.


I made one last small trip to the store this morning.... making sure all my sons games are charged incase power goes out...got a gas stove so I can still cook and heat water...not looking forward to this....

I feel really bad for the ones that got nailed by the tornado last week...now they have water damage to boot...
Quoting 335. 900MB:



Lets not get into the StormW drama :)


ha! that was an interesting time
Quoting 237. StormTrackerScott:



That is the strongest WWB of the year and this burst is quickly warming the ENSO regions. Looking like this will seal the deal for the strongest El-Nino since records have been kept going back to 1950.

With all the discussion about uncertainty in model forecasts, i am amazed at how accurately they can predict certain phenomena - like westerly wind bursts. The very high intensity of the forecasted burst occurs over a large area (170E to 155W). A significant percentage of this area has very warm waters (up to 30c ) - which the WWB will blow into what looks to be a true monster of a Kelvin wave.

So yes very interesting winter ahead. I am curious as to how El Nino surface temps will respond to this upcoming WWB in the nearer term, regardless of the upcoming Kelvin wave.
Quoting 303. tiggeriffic:




prayers........
There are a few possible reasons. They could have had waves from the storm begin to arrive faster than expected, forcing them to head INTO the storm to keep the bow in the wind and not take waves broadside. I've experienced this situation several times in my life (not on a container ship and not in a hurricane). It's not a fun experience to have to head in a direction you don't want to go but it happens. Another reason is that if it was at port when the storm started its approach, the owner may have ordered the captain to sea. When a hurricane threatens Pascagoula the large navy ships at port head out to sea because they sustain much less damage than being moored at the port getting slammed around. Just my two cents. Of course there is a lot more redundancies in a naval warship as far as propulsion


maybe down to cat 3 hurricane soon
Everyone keep safe and listen to your Emergency management people. I will be saying a prayer for all souls impacted by this storm.
delete this double post plz.
Quoting 349. Sandcat:

There are a few possible reasons. They could have had waves from the storm begin to arrive faster than expected, forcing them to head INTO the storm to keep the bow in the wind and not take waves broadside. I've experienced this situation several times in my life (not on a container ship and not in a hurricane). It's not a fun experience to have to head in a direction you don't want to go but it happens. Another reason is that if it was at port when the storm started its approach, the owner may have ordered the captain to sea. When a hurricane threatens Pascagoula the large navy ships at port head out to sea because they sustain much less damage than being moored at the port getting slammed around. Just my two cents.


I am a wespac sailor.... was on the AD 42 USS Acadia....never rode out a cane but hit 20-30 ft swells....it was NOT fun...
Quoting 341. ncstorm:



NWS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 2h2 hours ago

Flash flood watches currently affecting more than 25 million people across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic.



and just think what it would be if our rivers were as full as just before Floyd
Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 2m2 minutes ago
Hurricane Joaquin: 5 PM ET, 125 mph winds, Cat 3, 942 mb, moving at 7 mph. http://wxch.nl/r1tYL6
Quoting 354. will45:




and just think what it would be if our rivers were as full as just before Floyd


Even with this starting as soon as this evening for some folks, there is still some uncertanity of how much rain people will actually get and end up with..

Remember now..the GFS had as much as 34 inches on one run..I'm thinking someone is going to come real close to seeing those amounts..
Quoting 344. tornadodude:



I wasn't usually on until 9pm or so, was a late nighter aha


I remember a few early Sunday mornings getting banned because of you and Geoff. :)
359. vis0
Some people commented "could the TS punch through a front".
Correctly replied to, as to simple physics is that a TS punching through a front its like a flower (TS) trying to push through a Planet wave(front)

 ...BUT my 2 cents are if the TS is spinning strong & clean enough + slow forward motion to create a stronger nosing HIGH between it (TS) and a front, this might lead to a seed (LOW) planted in it (front) via the need to have an opposing reaction to the sudden nosing HIGH caused by the type of TS i mentioned/mentioning.
That opposing reaction is a the genesis of a LOW in the front next to the nosing HIGH the strong clean spinning TS/HURR forced,,, but i could be 99.9% wrong.

So in a weird way a warm core LOW cannot punch through a front but it can lead to a cooler core LOW helping the warm core LOW  by creating a welcoming door (stop throwing eggs at JOAQUIN washi115) /weak point for the warm core LOW to lean towards (NOT GO through) just lean more in that direction. It makes the front look like its becoming a spiral of the TS.  For all this to happen one needs a sudden kick in favour of the Ts, a kick of at least 150% chance which can happen naturally but can you guess what i think that kick was...

"sit down vis0 no majeekal-d talk today"-MODs.

BTW this description above would be as 2 warm core lows  fujiwaring,  BUT it would be 1 warm core and one  front, where the front is moving less E-W W-E, but more having its flow riding S - N or N - S (polewards), lets call it razmatazing after Taz or genesynizing after pablosyn (though of this which could be already known while studying SAmerican storms pablosyn posted )

BTW if i;m counting correctly, is the SC/NC-Appalachian rain does manifest, its the 5th 500 yrs storm and ~3rd 1000 yr storm to hit the Appalachians since 2009.2010 ...hmmm

BACK to observing weather STAY WISE & SAFE, listen to NOAA. For those that think "i (you) could do better" reality is no, unless you took 20 yrs of the most complex math there is, PASSED all tests and had the compu'r power they have other wise you are day dreaming which is ok, as long as you do not think that's real (life).
Quoting 329. aquak9:

if anyone has any updates on the missing cargo ship El Faro, PLEASE wumail me

one of my co-worker's hubby is a merchant seaman, onboard that ship

thank you so very much

peace, aqua
That's bringing it to reality for the blog .... I hope they find these guys, even if the ship is lost.
Quoting 220. Netflyer:

The NAM doesn't count/matter right? Cause it doesn't have upper level info for these types of storms? Cause 72 hours out it looks like it is sitting on Hatteras...


The NAM isn't a tropical model, so no, it doesn't particularly matter when it comes to forecasting tropical cyclones.
Large area of cyclonic circulation appearing west of the Cape Verde islands.
Joaquin is sucking in tremendous amounts of moisture from the Gulf and Caribbean.

Quoting 358. Grothar:



I remember a few early Sunday mornings getting banned because of you and Geoff. :)


If I remember correctly... I think you had been indulging in the demon rum.
Updated map..

Quoting 353. tiggeriffic:



I am a wespac sailor.... was on the AD 42 USS Acadia....never rode out a cane but hit 20-30 ft swells....it was NOT fun...
I imagine not. My dad and crew got caught out in a bad situation on the sol a sol race from Pensacola to Cozumel on a 38 foot sloop about 30 years ago and they were in 20 to 25 footers for like 3 days. Said it was the most afraid he had been in his entire life. My older brother never stepped back on that boat again. He would come sit on the dock and drink beer and see us off but refused to even step on the boat.
Quoting 357. ncstorm:



Even with this starting as soon as this evening for some folks, there is still some uncertanity of how much rain people will actually get and end up with..

Remember now..the GFS had as much as 34 inches on one run..I'm thinking someone is going to come real close to seeing those amounts..


well that radar out of Newport /Morehead City shows it is still pushing in from offshore
Quoting 363. Orcasystems:



If I remember correctly... I think you had been indulging in the demon rum.


I believe that was ole pot. Grothar never drank any alcohol, ever. They really were fun days. Much like the "Algonquin Round Table"
Remember, the 2nd peak of Hurricane activity occurs around Oct 10.
Quoting 324. MahFL:

Just to clrarify :
From NWS Columbia, SC :

".A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE NEAR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PARTLY BECAUSE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST."

Is what could bring a 1000 year rain event.


It's more than just moisture though, it's support and lifting mechanisms. The predicted total atmosphere moisture(PW values) are expected to be 2.25 to getting as high as 2.5 inches. The weak low in the gulf had 2.3 to 2.6 inch PW pass over FL and it hardly was 15-20 inch rain event.

While moisture from Joaquin will enhance the event, moisture content is not directly proportional to amount of rain for that reason. You can actually have extremely moist air and get little to no rain, as is what happened with that event several days ago in FL with the upper trough and weak gulf low.
Quoting 337. kwgirl:

Yeah Baha, we who live on small islands understand perfectly what wind and waves can do. The Bahamas are going to need relief real quick once this storm pulls away. Like tomorrow! I know some Key Westers will be getting aid packages together. The Conchs trace their heritage back to the Bahamas.
Was just thinking you guys prolly can understand what we're going through better than a lot of others .... by heritage as well as by geography .... lol ....
why does the NAM keep showing that left when every other one has said Fish for several runs?
Quoting 364. ncstorm:

Updated map..




Looks like the WPC dropped it's totals by about 5-6 inches, still an extreme event expected, but the values are dropping.
Quoting 313. Antm500:

Be prepared just in case folks like always. Won't give reasons just this is a devastating storm for the Bahamas and of course the weather models are most likely correct and 80>% this goes OTS but I think there's a slight chance for something else. Many Prayers for areas currently affected :/



Give us some reasons...
Quoting 348. VibrantPlanet:


With all the discussion about uncertainty in model forecasts, i am amazed at how accurately they can predict certain phenomena - like westerly wind bursts. The a very high intensity of the forecasted burst occurs over a large area (170E to 155W). A significant percentage of this area has very warm waters (up to 30c+) - which the WWB will blow into what looks to be a true monster of a Kelvin wave.

So yes very interesting winter ahead. I am curious as to how El Nino surface temps will respond to this upcoming WWB in the nearer term, regardless of the upcoming Kelvin wave.
According to Taz, we only need three more storms to use up the entire EPac naming list .....
Quoting 353. tiggeriffic:



I am a wespac sailor.... was on the AD 42 USS Acadia....never rode out a cane but hit 20-30 ft swells....it was NOT fun...


Man, just thinking about swells that large is enough to make me feel seasick. :P In my mind that probably would be hurricane if I were in it, if I could even think about it from seasickness.
What year(s) were you on USS Acadia? Thank you for your service.
Quoting 366. will45:



well that radar out of Newport /Morehead City shows it is still pushing in from offshore


um humm..and yesterday according to the NWS Release it was supposed to be from Friday to Sun of rainfall..now Wilmington has been extended into heavy rains for Monday..all the area football games were moved to Monday and most likely have to be moved to another date..
Quoting 372. Jedkins01:



Looks like the WPC dropped it's totals by about 5-6 inches, still an extreme event expected, but the values are dropping.


Whoops, my mistake, thought that was a maximum precip forecast of 12 inches shown there, which wouldn't even make sense given the color coding. Not sure how I read it that way, lol.
Quoting 365. Sandcat:

I imagine not. My dad and crew got caught out in a bad situation on the sol a sol race from Pensacola to Cozumel on a 38 foot sloop about 30 years ago and they were in 20 to 25 footers for like 3 days. Said it was the most afraid he had been in his entire life. My older brother never stepped back on that boat again. He would come sit on the dock and drink beer and see us off but refused to even step on the boat.


I was in my rack when we hit one swell...the ship went up....then dropped like a rock...when it did...I was in the air (top rack)...the ship did a slight roll to the starboard at the same time as the drop...it put me over the top rail and I dropped all the way to the steel deck...needless to say I got my gear and slept on the floor the rest of the night
For those interested in what may be happening in Charleston this weekend, this site from the Post and Courier looks pretty useful. I have some in-laws who live near the Battery who are out of town and flying back Sunday. I presume the airport will be fine but getting back to their place could be dicey.

Link
Trough is digging deep!
Quoting 379. rwdobson:

For those interested in what may be happening in Charleston this weekend, this site from the Post and Courier looks pretty useful. I have some in-laws who live near the Battery who are out of town and flying back Sunday. I presume the airport will be fine but getting back to their place could be dicey.

Link


they better keep in touch with the airport.... DT will be inundated with water....
Quoting 378. tiggeriffic:



I was in my rack when we hit one swell...the ship went up....then dropped like a rock...when it did...I was in the air (top rack)...the ship did a slight roll to the starboard at the same time as the drop...it put me over the top rail and I dropped all the way to the steel deck...needless to say I got my gear and slept on the floor the rest of the night


Reminds me of old times USCG Sagebrush, Dallas, Well I remember one time....
Quoting 364. ncstorm:

Updated map..




I don't think I've ever seen totals that high without some tropical system making a direct pass. Incredible.
Quoting 368. Grothar:

Remember, the 2nd peak of Hurricane activity occurs around Oct 10.
Looks like it's lined up to be more exciting than we even had a right to expect ....
Surf is definitely up. Could be a bumpy ride if you are going offshore hunting for mahi this weekend.

Quoting 383. Grothar:



I don't think I've ever seen totals that high without some tropical system making a direct pass. Incredible.


I am not looking forward to it... been misty most of the day...started raining a little bit ago... so it begins
387. 882MB
I found a picture of the missing cargo ship "EL FARO". Really big cargo ship, so hopefully it just lost communication, and as soon as weather conditions permit it, the coast guard will find the ship. Hope everyone on board that ship is ok. @ Aquak9, I hope everything turns out good for your co-worker. Prayers for her husband, and all the other people on board that ship.

Quoting 385. capeflorida:

Surf is definitely up. Could be a bumpy ride if you are going offshore hunting for mahi this weekend.




Misery is optional.
Quoting 374. BahaHurican:

According to Taz, we only need three more storms to use up the entire EPac naming list .....


I know crazy! And check out the central pacific - looks like the systems being spun up there are directly related to the same changes creating the new WWB.
Quoting 383. Grothar:



I don't think I've ever seen totals that high without some tropical system making a direct pass. Incredible.


I honestly think those totals will be more after all said and done for some areas..The models have a hard time accounting for rainfall amounts in the mountains due to lift..Its going to be a long weekend for a lot of folks..
Quoting 353. tiggeriffic:



I am a wespac sailor.... was on the AD 42 USS Acadia....never rode out a cane but hit 20-30 ft swells....it was NOT fun...


I was on the USS Shreveport from 92'-96'. Feb. 1995 we were in a horrible storm off the coast of Norway, 30 ft seas are no joke, we were turning the props to do ~20 knots, but the ship was making no forward progress for 24 hours, just pushing into the strong winds. USS Shreveport suffered minor damage, but the USS Wasp suffered to much damage to continue operations and was sent to Rota for repairs. To this day I don't have any interest in going out to sea!

Quoting 386. tiggeriffic:



I am not looking forward to it... been misty most of the day...started raining a little bit ago... so it begins
Yes... radar's starting to fill in and we've got some pretty good downpours headed our way before long! Debating if I should visit my parents in Jedburg tonight (about 15 mins away). Not sure how bad it will get later.
They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/
Quoting 374. BahaHurican:

According to Taz, we only need three more storms to use up the entire EPac naming list .....


That would be the C Pac. Not E pac
Quoting 393. RavensFan:

They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/

That was another 212 foot ship. No news on the El Faro... prayers
Quoting 377. Jedkins01:



Whoops, my mistake, thought that was a maximum precip forecast of 12 inches shown there, which wouldn't even make sense given the color coding. Not sure how I read it that way, lol.


You know you cant get some good treatment. Talking to yourself is easily cured:)
Quoting 392. carolinabelle:


Yes... radar's starting to fill in and we've got some pretty good downpours headed our way before long! Debating if I should visit my parents in Jedburg tonight (about 15 mins away). Not sure how bad it will get later.



I wouldn't drive in it after dark...not on those roads out in Jedburg... dark country road... ditches full of water... hydroplaning... if you go, plan on staying lol... not sure if you will get a break to go back home... that is just me personally tho
Quoting 393. RavensFan:

They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/


Totally different ship, not El Faro.
Quoting 393. RavensFan:

They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/


yes that was a different ship north of Haiti, not to be confused with the ship aqua is looking for, the video of that rescue just shows the sea is a formidable foe, glad they got those guys
Quoting 393. RavensFan:

They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/


Appears to be a different ship
Quoting 381. tiggeriffic:



they better keep in touch with the airport.... DT will be inundated with water....


Isn't the airport up on relatively high ground? But who knows, having their flight in delayed or canceled might be a blessing in disguise because getting to the battery could be a real problem.
404. 882MB
Quoting 393. RavensFan:

They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/


That was another ship that was north of Haiti. Mother nature not behaving so well, lets just pray for the best. And hopefully the cargo ship "EL FARO" will be found soon.
Quoting 402. rwdobson:



Isn't the airport up on relatively high ground? But who knows, having their flight in delayed or canceled might be a blessing in disguise because getting to the battery could be a real problem.


they wont land in bad weather...and yes, it is higher than DT, but it is a series of highs and lows between the airport and the battery.... they closed almost every path for a few hours yesterday alone just for tidal flooding....now add more than a foot of rain.
Quoting 368. Grothar:

Remember, the 2nd peak of Hurricane activity occurs around Oct 10.


The chart Gro... You forgot "The Chart"!!!

Quoting 404. 882MB:



That was another ship that was north of Haiti. Mother nature not behaving so well, lets just pray for the best. And hopefully the cargo ship "EL FARO" will be found soon.

Good to know that it is possible to survive those swells in a raft. It was the crew of the Minouche.
Quoting 395. Tazmanian:



That would be the C Pac. Not E pac
So where are we in the E Pac, Taz... M?

Quoting 398. tiggeriffic:



I wouldn't drive in it after dark...not on those roads out in Jedburg... dark country road... ditches full of water... hydroplaning... if you go, plan on staying lol... not sure if you will get a break to go back home... that is just me personally tho
Yeah, that's what we're afraid of... gonna have to keep an eye on the radar over the next hour or so and then make a decision. Thanks!
HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since
the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb.
Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt.
Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from
a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While
the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall,
the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery,
and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery.

The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-
to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,
while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located
over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to
move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the
front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to
upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move
west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments
should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by
a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good
agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between
the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in
the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to
move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across
the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models.

Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical
wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some
fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be
complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should
continue for several more hours.

2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.
east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current
conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains
occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated
to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather
Prediction Center and your local forecast office.

3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas
is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key
messages unless the threat increases.
Beginning to end, this storm has become re-organized and is just plain stationary now:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22.5&lon=-75.6&zoom=2&in fo=ir&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&width=1400&heigh t=1000&type=Animation&numframes=20
Quoting 392. carolinabelle:


Yes... radar's starting to fill in and we've got some pretty good downpours headed our way before long! Debating if I should visit my parents in Jedburg tonight (about 15 mins away). Not sure how bad it will get later.



Whatever you do, stay out of downtown. It's going to be awash with high tides (even at low water, given recent astronomical events) and the rain from upcountry converging on the whole ACE basin. I understand the forecast onshore wind is already up and rising. That will be pushing back against the outflow. It might be one of those "flash floods" I keep getting advisories on, but it will take a couple days to get here, and then can't go anywhere when it does.

I know we always kind of laugh off downtown floods here in the Lowcountry but I don't think this one is going to be a laughing matter.

At the moment, it's only drizzling a little in East Cooper. The pour-down yesterday and the insane rush hour flood wasn't the real Event. Oi maninny!
Well guys I'm out until later..

Just bought Jurassic World and San Andreas on Vudu as well as rented Pitch Perfect 2 and Avengers Age of Ultron for the family and we bought to sit back under this dreary day and chill...

To those in the affected areas, if you have elderly neighbors check on them and make sure they are aware of whats going on..

Also know your evac plans in case you have to leave..if you don't feel safe, please don't wait around for someone to tell you to leave..be familiar with the shelters in your area in case you got to go in a hurry..

Peace and blessings..
Take care ncstorm, and check in now and then....
Meanwhile, winds over New Providence have shifted to northerly, suggesting that Joaquin is almost east of us again....

Quoting 412. GreyJewel:



Whatever you do, stay out of downtown. It's going to be awash with high tides (even at low water, given recent astronomical events) and the rain from upcountry converging on the whole ACE basin. I understand the forecast onshore wind is already up and rising. That will be pushing back against the outflow. It might be one of those "flash floods" I keep getting advisories on, but it will take a couple days to get here, and then can't go anywhere when it does.

I know we always kind of laugh off downtown floods here in the Lowcountry but I don't think this one is going to be a laughing matter.

At the moment, it's only drizzling a little in East Cooper. The pour-down yesterday and the insane rush hour flood wasn't the real Event. Oi maninny!
Oh, trust me, we're not going anywhere near downtown the next few days! Seen enough of the flooding they get down there to avoid it at all costs. We live up in Summerville, so planning to hunker down at home for most of the storm.
Quoting 406. ChillinInTheKeys:



The chart Gro... You forgot "The Chart"!!!




No way am I ever posting that thing :)
TWC just showed Euro track. Does this mean WU can start showing it?
Quoting 418. centex:

TWC just showed Euro track. Does this mean WU can start showing it?


TWC has been showing the Euro model for years.
Quoting 419. Sfloridacat5:



TWC has been showing the Euro model for years.
wrong. Read about models on WU, just wonder if now needs to be updated.
Not moving but some expansion....... Just sitting there!
Quoting 421. forecaster1:

Not moving but some expansion....... Just sitting there!
You?


starting to move nne now
Yes me too. blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 422. BahaHurican:

You?


wow!!
426. 882MB
Euro and GFS show a storm going near the Bahamas next week.hopefully that doesn't verify as they need to recover and don't need another storm on their heels.
Quoting 420. centex:

wrong. Read about models on WU, just wonder if now needs to be updated.
More, everyone has been dancing around European Centre restriction on showing track. Surprised no one seems to care about this. It was a real problem with our current storm.
Quoting 420. centex:

wrong. Read about models on WU, just wonder if now needs to be updated.


I don't know about WU, I talking about TWC showing the Euro model. TWC compares the Euro and GFS going back to pre-hurricane Sandy.

We must be talking about two different things.
Evening, all.

Home and hunkered down for the weekend here in Summerville, SC. Waiting for Cantore to start his live shots from here.

Praying the house doesn't flood. Have a bunch of heavy, thick towels ready for the sliding glass door leading to the back porch. That's where the water will rise.

And....so.....it......begins
Quoting 353. tiggeriffic:



I am a wespac sailor.... was on the AD 42 USS Acadia....never rode out a cane but hit 20-30 ft swells....it was NOT fun...


I was in westpac in '64, USS Kearsarge, CVS 33. Saw green water across the flight deck. Was enlisted, so I rarely knew where we were, or why. Somewhere in the South China Sea most of the time.
Quoting 430. nash36:

Evening, all.

Home and hunkered down for the weekend here in Summerville, SC. Waiting for Cantore to start his live shots from here.

Praying the house doesn't flood. Have a bunch of heavy, thick towels ready for the sliding glass door leading to the back porch. That's where the water will rise.

And....so.....it......begins


Stay safe, take some photos maybe!
Quoting 427. washingtonian115:

Euro and GFS show a storm going near the Bahamas next week.hopefully that doesn't verify as they need to recover and don't need another storm on their heels.
no they dont
Looks like Bermuda will need to watch Joaquin closely this run takes it right over the island. It looks like Joaquin is not done wrecking havoc yet. I wonder if it will be retired at the end of the season?





Quoting 411. Antm500:

Beginning to end, this storm has become re-organized and is just plain stationary now:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22.5&lon=-75.6&a mp;zoom=2&in fo=ir&palette=wv2.pal&quality=100&widt h=1400&heigh t=1000&type=Animation&numframes=20

You might want to go here and look at the actual center fixes rather than just look on a satellite photo and use the finger on the monitor method.
Quoting 425. hurricanes2018:



wow!!
I think on Tuesday or Wednesday Joaquin was the only system on that map.....
actually is raining just enough to not turn on the sprinklers tonight...PBG Fl
439. MahFL
Some rain pushing into SC now :

Quoting 434. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like Bermuda will need to watch Joaquin closely this run takes it right over the island. It looks like Joaquin is not done wrecking havoc yet. I wonder if it will be retired at the end of the season?






If the ship is lost, yes.
Quoting 425. hurricanes2018:



wow!!


Pretty impressive, but check this one out from earlier this year around July. Hopefully I can get it to post.

Quoting 439. MahFL:

Some rain pushing into SC now :




They say that's pretty much what the radar will look like for the next 3 days. Guess we'll see.
Can somebody weigh in on Joaquin's likely impact on Bermuda? I have considerable interests there and am becoming concerned. Thanks much.
Quoting 429. Sfloridacat5:



I don't know about WU, I talking about TWC showing the Euro model. TWC compares the Euro and GFS going back to pre-hurricane Sandy.

We must be talking about two different things.
Quoting 429. Sfloridacat5:



I don't know about WU, I talking about TWC showing the Euro model. TWC compares the Euro and GFS going back to pre-hurricane Sandy.

We must be talking about two different things.
They been shying away from track and showing position and talking "alot" about track. Since now showing track today and TWC owning WU maybe they paid or got approval and applies to WU also. Afraid they only temp allow, need perm fix if that the case.
Quoting 433. Camerooski:

no they dont
Yes they do.That is why the NHC highlighted the area near the cape verde islands.
Quoting 431. chasSoCal:



I was in westpac in '64, USS Kearsarge, CVS 33. Saw green water across the flight deck. Was enlisted, so I rarely knew where we were, or why. Somewhere in the South China Sea most of the time.
You may have seen this picture of the USS Cowpens, a CVL, during Typhoon Cobra in 1944. To my knowledge, this is the greatest roll ever sustained by an aircraft carrier without capsizing. Not as big as the Kearsarge, but 622 feet, so no lightweight. They lost eight aircraft, a bunch of 20 mm sponsons, her mainmast and all the radars, and a sailor overboard. I've been in 20 foot seas in my little 30 foot sailboat. That was bad enough. I can't imagine being on the Cowpens.

Quoting 443. octoberallover:

Can somebody weigh in on Joaquin's likely impact on Bermuda? I have considerable interests there and am becoming concerned. Thanks much.
Too soon to say for sure, but the model tracks look hopeful for a miss.
Quoting 443. octoberallover:

Can somebody weigh in on Joaquin's likely impact on Bermuda? I have considerable interests there and am becoming concerned. Thanks much.
It looks like Joaquin will not weaken much and the models (specifically the Euro) has shown the storm in the vicinity of Bermuda for a while.I say they need to watch Wahkeen carefully and take precautions soon.
Quoting 445. washingtonian115:

Yes they do.That is why the NHC highlighted the area near the cape verde islands.
yes but not impacting the Bahamas at all...
Presslord, OceanMoan, StormJunkie, Nash, Cody, you are ready. Big times rains. Be safe. Be smart.

Quoting 440. BahaHurican:

If the ship is lost, yes.
I hope not, my father worked on cargo ships in Guyana and they would go to Curacao, his uncles also were sailors, one of which was lost at sea when their vessel went missing during a storm that passed through the Eastern Caribbean. This was around the '04-'05 hurricane season. I can't remember which storm.
Quoting 449. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Just so you know, and everyone, this photo is from Portland, Maine.
@hurricanes2018 let's try this again. Maybe it will post this time.
Quoting 433. Camerooski:

no they dont

Can you show the graphic for this?


Restrengthening?
2"+ per hour rainfall rates occurring in Bladen, Columbus, and Western Brunswick County right now, flood warning just went out for Horry County (Myrtle Beach). The models were leaning to a huge event in the Carolinas but focusing on SC, still consistent with that.

Alrighty then, I can't get the photo to post. I have a snapshot of that GSST map from July with 8 tropical formations, from invests to hurricanes, all in the Pacific, with the Atlantic dead quiet. If anyone could tell me how to post the photo that would be great.
Quoting 393. RavensFan:

They found 12 members who abandoned ship:

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/2606846/
Anything new about the El Faro?
Quoting 450. Camerooski:

yes but not impacting the Bahamas at all...
I know you're mad about Wahkeen not smashing into Florida but the models show future Kate/Larry possibly making it to the southern Bahamas.Could this change? Certainly it is to early to know exact details.
Sar, are you familar with euro restriction of public display of tropical system track? I saw TWC compare gfs/euro, WU claims it not allowed by european centre.
Quoting 458. Weathergirlklein:

Alrighty then, I can't get the photo to post. I have a snapshot of that GSST map from July with 8 tropical formations, from invests to hurricanes, all in the Pacific, with the Atlantic dead quiet. If anyone could tell me how to post the photo that would be great.
Easiest way is to upload it as Wunderphoto and then copy and paste it here, using the little picture icon. I keep hoping one day they'll have actual help files on WU.
Quoting 456. Articuno:



Restrengthening?


Looking like he's boomer ranging right back to his initial breeding ground and doubling back in the process. He's going to be traveling over all the water he just finished churning up.

He's done already peaked. But I'd imagine he will finally pop out an eye clear wise anyway. Maybe around 90-100 knots when he nears Bermuda.
Quoting 453. SeKelly84:



Just so you know, and everyone, this photo is from Portland, Maine.
Nessie shows up everywhere.. .:-)
So what will all that rain mean for the mountain areas of NC around Asheville etc TIA
Quoting 461. centex:

Sar, are you familar with euro restriction of public display of tropical system track? I saw TWC compare gfs/euro, WU claims it not allowed by european centre.


I believe there is a fee for showing it. TWC surely would be able to afford to pay the fee.
Quoting 456. Articuno:



Restrengthening?
Wouldn't surprise me, warm enough waters even north of Bermuda to sustain a tropical system, however, I think it will begin to lose tropical characteristics and transition to an extratropical storm once it passes by Bermuda.



Maybe a nasty storm for the UK in about a week.



Quoting 465. waterskiman:

So what will all that rain mean for the mountain areas of NC around Asheville etc TIA
There are river flood warnings for around the area and a flash flood watch. Not raining there now, but rain is moving toward the area.
Quoting 446. sar2401:

You may have seen this picture of the USS Cowpens, a CVL, during Typhoon Cobra in 1944. To my knowledge, this is the greatest roll ever sustained by an aircraft carrier without capsizing. Not as big as the Kearsarge, but 622 feet, so no lightweight. They lost eight aircraft, a bunch of 20 mm sponsons, her mainmast and all the radars, and a sailor overboard. I've been in 20 foot seas in my little 30 foot sailboat. That was bad enough. I can't imagine being on the Cowpens.




Scary. I wonder who was out taking pictures at the time. Story was we took a 13 degree roll but then got hit on the other side which set up upright. I never knew anything for real, just we got bounced around a lot.
Quoting 466. eljefe711:



I believe there is a fee for showing it. TWC surely would be able to afford to pay the fee.
Yes, there are restrictions about display of Euro models and images except the publicly available ones at the Euro web site. Anyone can buy a license. The prices range from reasonable for academics and non-profits to sky high for commercial outlets like TWC. Apparently WU has some kind of limited license that allows them to display Euro models on the Wundermap but not the models on the their regular model maps.
Quoting 470. sar2401:

Yes, there are restrictions about display of Euro models and images except the publicly available ones at the Euro web site. Anyone can buy a license. The prices range from reasonable for academics and non-profits to sky high for commercial outlets like TWC. Apparently WU has some kind of limited license that allows them to display Euro models on the Wundermap but not the models on the their regular model maps.
Thanks, not right for this kind of info designed for public interest and not a private company.
We've had 0.31 here in a short time Tallahassee. Not torrential rain but it was steady heavy for a bit. There is widespread light to moderate rain with a few pockets of heavy showers. A bit surprising given the 20% pops that were in place today.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 469. chasSoCal:



Scary. I wonder who was out taking pictures at the time. Story was we took a 13 degree roll but then got hit on the other side which set up upright. I never knew anything for real, just we got bounced around a lot.
They were doing an inclining experiment to test the carrier for a maximum loadout of aircraft because they were planning to convert it to an aircraft transport. All the sticks were part of measurements for the experiment, and they had no idea they'd be hit by a typhoon when they set them up. All the sticks allowed an accurate estimation of roll with later software, and it's now supposed to be 26 degrees. You can see the tails of the Hellcats on deck starting to be dragged toward the side by the roll. Some sailors on board claimed the roll increased in the next sixty seconds or so, and that's when they lost the aircraft overboard. The Cowpens was a carrier built on the hull of a Cleveland class light cruiser, and they were always top heavy. I would have had my life vest on and been ready to hit the drink. Not as bad as two of the destroyers in the task force though. They just disappeared with the loss of all hands. :-(
Two nights ago during the Weather Underground segment on TWC they talked in detail about the advantages of the Euro model over the other models.
And they were certainly showing and comparing the Euro forecast vs. the GFS.
Quoting 468. sar2401:

There are river flood warnings for around the area and a flash flood watch. Not raining there now, but rain is moving toward the area.

Thanks, I had the warnings on the rivers, it doesn't landslide up there does it?
Quoting 475. Sfloridacat5:

Two nights ago during the Weather Underground segment on TWC they talked in detail about the advantages of the Euro model over the other models.
And they were certainly showing and comparing the Euro forecast vs. the GFS.
Talk mainly, spot shots and such. I've been watching this very close, was looking for someone like sar to add to my knowlege. In my opinion the whole situation is mess and needs to be fixed. Do we charge europeans to display gfs track?
Looks like SC getting start of main event. Based on recent experience (500 year event) you will get frustrated when it keeps coming. You will be praying for it to stop before you pay the price. What you need to do is watch closely where rain bomb happens. If in bomb no tellng what will happen so dont trust your experience, be very careful.
Quoting 477. centex:

Talk mainly, spot shots and such. I've been watching this very close, was looking for someone like sar to add to my knowlege. In my opinion the whole situation is mess and needs to be fixed. Do we charge europeans to display gfs track?


Yes, SC, we Central Texans are with you after our May Miracle Deluge of 6 weeks of rain (then we were unmercifully plunged right back into fire warning drought). You have to keep every relative and friends whereabouts in mind - you may be doing your own water rescues for a while. Good luck and God Protect.
Quoting 458. Weathergirlklein:

Alrighty then, I can't get the photo to post. I have a snapshot of that GSST map from July with 8 tropical formations, from invests to hurricanes, all in the Pacific, with the Atlantic dead quiet. If anyone could tell me how to post the photo that would be great.


That'd be a great photo to post because it will help illustrate how CONUS has sucked EPAC systems to skeletal remains within days from June -> today. Just like is happening to JQ if he doesn't ride out of town now.
True, Virginia Beach is filled with lots of unpredictable weather. We have a few methods for giving people different types of perms which are unique to our area. The Tshirt perm is now popular here. I work at Shear Bliss Hair Salon Virginia Beach and would love to help anyone with their perm if you are in the area : ) Shearblissvb. com check out some of the different hair styles and perms we have done.