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Category 4 Joaquin Pounds the Bahamas; a U.S. Landfall Unlikely

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 9:22 PM GMT on October 01, 2015

Dangerous Hurricane Joaquin has intensified to a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds and a 936 mb pressure, making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane in five years. The last stronger storm was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which bottomed out at 924 mb on September 15, 2010. Joaquin is now the second major hurricane of 2015 in the Atlantic, joining Hurricane Danny, which peaked as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on August 21. Joaquin's motion has slowed to a 5 mph westward crawl over the Central Bahamas, which are receiving an epic pounding from the mighty hurricane. David Adams of Reuters told me this afternoon that he has been calling down to the Bahamas, and no phones are being answered on Aklins Island--but Reuters' Nassau correspondent informed him that flooding was bad on Aklins Island and Long Island. The last hurricane hunter aircraft departed the storm after a 12:47 pm EDT eye fix, and new plane will be in the storm early this evening. The Hurricane Hunters found that Joaquin's eye had shrunk from 41 miles in diameter early this morning to 27 miles in diameter this afternoon. Shrinkage of the eye is common in intensifying major hurricanes, and eyewall replacement cycles that lead to temporary weakening of the storms typically occur when the eye diameter gets down to about 10 miles. Wind shear continued to be in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Thursday afternoon, and visible and infrared satellite loops showed that Joaquin was a moderate-sized hurricane with impressive organization, with a solid core of intense eyewall thunderstorms surrounding a clear eye. Upper level wind analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has maintained an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the southeast, and it appeared a new outflow channel was ready to open up to the northwest, which would support continued intensification. Ocean temperatures in the region remain a record-warm 30°C (86°F), but may start to cool due to Joaquin's slow motion. This cooling of the waters could well put the brakes on further intensification by Friday morning.


Figure 1. GOES-13 visible image of Hurricane Joaquin taken at 3pm EDT October 1, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Two major Atlantic hurricanes during a strong El Niño: a first
Strong El Niño conditions currently exist in the Eastern Pacific, where ocean temperatures have warmed to 2.3°C above average in the region 5°N-5°S, 120°W-180°W (called the Niño 3.4 region). Major Atlantic hurricanes are uncommon when ocean temperatures get this warm in the Eastern Pacific, and 2015 is the first strong El Niño year to experience two major Atlantic hurricanes since El Niño records began in 1950. The other four years that had strong El Niño conditions during the peak August-September-October portion of hurricane season have had only one major hurricane each. Those years were 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. Joaquin is now the second strongest Atlantic hurricane observed during strong El Niño conditions, behind only Hurricane Debby of 1982, which had 135 mph winds.

Joaquin is an uncommon beast: a major hurricane that did not develop from an African tropical wave. These waves serve as the origin of about 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes. According to TWC's Stu Ostro, Joaquin's origin can be traced, in part all the way back to a upper-level trough that came off the coast of the Carolinas on September 15 (animation here). This trough became a cold upper low northeast of the Leeward Islands, then warmed and transformed into a warm-cored tropical cyclone. These sorts of systems are usually too far north to have warm enough water temperatures to make it to major hurricane status, but with the waters of Joaquin's birth a record warm 30°C (86°F), this was not a problem for the storm.

Impact of Joaquin on the Bahamas
Joaquin's main threat to the Bahamas is likely to be wind damage. The 5 pm Thursday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave the highest chances of hurricane-force winds of 69% to San Salvador Island (population 930). Hurricane-force winds are slightly less likely on Cat Island (population 1,500), to the northwest of San Salvador Island. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches in the Central Bahamas may also cause considerable flooding damage, as well as the large waves of the storm riding up on top of the expected 5 - 10' storm surge.


Figure 2. This Maximum Water Depth storm surge image for the Bahamas shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, as predicted using dozens of runs of NOAA's SLOSH model. For example, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. No single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this image. The regions of the Bahamas most vulnerable to storm surge tend to lie on the southwest sides of the islands. Since Joaquin is approaching from the northeast, the storm's peak on-shore winds will be affecting the northeast sides of the islands, where deeper offshore waters tend not to allow larger storm surges to build. NHC is forecasting peak water levels (the depth of water above the high tide mark) of 5 - 10 feet from Joaquin in the Bahamas. See wunderground's storm surge pages for more storm surge info.

Joaquin likely to miss the U.S.
Confidence is growing that Joaquin will move out to sea this weekend, although a U.S. landfall still cannot be ruled out. Among the 12Z (8 am EDT) Thursday operational runs, three models--the Canadian GEM and the U.S. GFDL and NAVGEM models—continue to call for a landfall on the U.S. East Coast. Other models, including the four that performed the best for three-day outlooks during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season (GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and UKMET), now agree that Joaquin will turn sharply toward the north or northeast and begin to accelerate by late Friday or Saturday, feeling the influence of an upper-level low drifting well to the northeast. The less-likely possibility of a U.S. landfall hinges on the idea that a strong upper-level trough would produce a cut-off low in the Southeast that would hook Joaquin around it, much as happened with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012. That cut-off low is still expected to form, but the balance between the eastern U.S. low and the Atlantic low in terms of influence on Joaquin now appears to favor the latter.
 
NHC nudged the forecast track for Joaquin further east in its 5:00 pm EDT outlook. In the associated discussion, they stressed: “We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin.  However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days.”


Figure 3. The European model ensemble run at 8 pm EDT Wednesday September 30, 2015 (00Z Thursday, October 1) had four of its 50 members (grey lines) that tracked the movement of Joaquin exceptionally well during the period 00Z - 18Z October 1. All of these four members had tracks for Joaquin that missed the U.S., with one of them hitting Canada. The operational (high-resolution) version of the European model is shown in red. Image taken from a custom software package used by TWC.
 
Historic rain/flood/surge still in the cards for U.S. East Coast
Joaquin’s presence, even at sea, is one of many factors now lining up to help produce a weather event that may rival many U.S. Category 1 hurricane landfalls in terms of impact. Along the immediate coast from New Jersey to the Carolinas, several days of high seas, beach erosion, and coastal flooding can be expected from a long fetch of easterly wind setting up between Joaquin and a strong, sprawling ridge of high pressure far to its north. The concern is not so much the intensity of the onshore flow (assuming Joaquin does not approach) but its sheer persistence. “The duration of this wind event is absolutely mind-boggling,” said storm-surge expert Hal Needham in a blog post on Thursday morning. Onshore winds of more than 20 mph could be affecting the mid-Atlantic coast for more than 96 solid hours, regardless of Joaquin’s track. High water will be present for as many as 10 high tides over several days, increasing the risk of erosion and flooding along the coast as well as up to a few miles inland. “This developing situation is truly historic and has not been observed in the modern history of the Mid-Atlantic Coast,” says Needham.



Figure 4. The combination of Hurricane Joaquin and high pressure well to its north will put a squeeze play on the U.S. East Coast, with several days of onshore flow expected to produce high surf and coastal flooding. This map shows surface winds in knots (multiply by 1.15 for mph) predicted by the 12Z Thursday run of the GFS model for 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Sunday, October 4. Image generated by wundermap using “model data” option.
 
Another exceptional part of the story from this weekend into Monday will be the mammoth rainfall amounts expected to fall over parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, particularly South Carolina. These areas are not unfamiliar with torrential rain, especially from landfalling tropical cyclones, but the amounts this weekend will be amazing even by southeastern standards—and this is assuming Joaquin does not make landfall. Strong and extremely moist flow pushing from the Atlantic against the Appalachians may boost rainfall totals to record or near-record totals from the mountains and foothills of northeast Georgia to western Virginia. The Greenville/Spartanburg NWS office is already warning that “all the ingredients are in place for a rainfall event of historic proportions across the area.”
 
At the same time, a frontal boundary may develop between relatively cool air associated with the Southeast upper low and warmer, more humid air being funneled across the Carolinas from Joaquin’s circulation. This boundary, which should extend east or southeast from the Appalachians to the Atlantic, will help the extremely heavy rain to extend into the coastal plains of the Carolinas. According to Peter Neilley (WSI), the boundary may end up bearing some resemblance to the “norlun trough” feature that can boost snow amounts in nor’easter winter storms.
 
With onshore flow pushing a storm surge of 1 - 2' along much of the East Coast over the next five days, the rain water will not be able to drain effectively into the ocean, causing rivers to back up and flood more severely than they otherwise would. A mandatory evacuation is now in effect for Ocrakoke Island in North Carolina’s Outer Banks, out of concern about rising water levels in the Pamlico Sound that separates the Outer Banks from the NC mainland. Transportation could be hindered for days in coastal regions by this complex setup, and there is the potential for major flash flooding and river flooding throughout much of the Carolinas depending on the timing and placement of the heaviest rains.
 

Figure 5. 5-day rainfall amounts for the period from 8:00 pm EDT Thursday, October 1, to Tuesday, October 6. Almost all of South Carolina is projected to get 10” – 20” of rain. This map assumes that Hurricane Joaquin will remain offshore from the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Value of the Hurricane Hunters
The Hurricane Hunters have been in Joaquin almost continuously the past two days, sending back invaluable information on the storm's position and intensity. Without their data, we might well have classified Joaquin as a much weaker storm, since satellite estimates of Joaquin's strength were too low during a large portion of the hurricane's intensification period. Satellite estimates of Joaquin's strength using the Dvorak technique from NOAA/NESDIS gave the hurricane a constant rating of T5.0 between Wednesday evening at 7:45 pm EDT and Thursday morning at 7:45 am EDT. The Tropical Storm Current Intensity Chart for this corresponds to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds and a 970 mb pressure. During this period, the Hurricane Hunters documented that Joaquin actually underwent a period of rapid intensification, with a pressure drop from 954 mb to 942 mb, and winds increasing from 105 mph to 125 mph. However, by 2 pm EDT Thursday, the satellite estimates of Joaquin's strength finally matched what the Hurricane Hunters were seeing, with both saying top winds of 130 mph.

Bob Henson will be on WUTV on the Weather Channel at 6:20 pm EDT Wednesday, and Jeff Masters will be on at 8:20 pm.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a detailed Thursday afternoon update on Joaquin.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. fmbill
Quoting 1461. StormTrackerScott:



Of course there are no reports as the storm has been sitting in the same place for 24hrs. No shelters were opened because the PM and his crew were following the tracks by the NHC which had no impact to the Bahamas. Then Joaquin turned SW and at that point it was too late to get the word out to those smaller islands.

Not totally buying that they weren't aware. A hurricane watch was issued Tuesday, 11pm. Tropical storm winds didn't get to the most eastern islands until Wednesday evening, and hurricane winds until Thursday 3am. Delayed issuance? Yes. But, I know under a watch, the Bahamans can get a lot done with a full day's notice.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 71.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JOAQUIN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC)
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH
LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. JOAQUIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK
THE CENTER OF JOAQUIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS
AND JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: JOAQUIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SAN SALVADOR AND
RUM CAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JOAQUIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.


FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting 1486. StormTrackerScott:



What a troll this cat is!


Read post 1475 from a guy who lives there - and you call me a troll?
Well, I expect the blog to become a lot less crazy until Kate comes along...
1504. Torito
Quoting 1499. tiggeriffic:



I actually was talking to my husband last night....I said wouldn't it be a kick in the teeth if we got all this rain then the storm turned and knocked all the trees here down...


Ground getting really soft here in Maryland as well. I live in a forest, nothing has fallen yet near our house. I'm sure its only a matter of time..
Quoting 1497. LouisPasteur:



When you pray for "minimal" loss of life, do you specify in your prayers which few individuals should die?

Read it over again.

"... minimal or no loss of life ..."

I think you can answer this question yourself.. it's obvious nobody (unless you're mentally sick) wants anyone to die.
1507. Mikla
1508. Drakoen
Joaquin is stuck in the deformation zone which will make it harder to assume a more northeast direction. Water vapor imagery show the push from the high to the southwest, while the trough over the eastern U.S. is advancing eastward.
Lol sorry. I edited the quote when I saw that it was only quoting you and not the quote you responded to. Thanks for looking out!
Quoting 1485. FOREX:

LOL. I know. I was sticking up for you. I am your Florida neighbor to your NW in the Panhandle.
Quoting 1504. Torito:



Ground getting really soft here in Maryland as well. I live in a forest, nothing has fallen yet near our house. I'm sure its only a matter of time..


Prayers all around......
Does it look stationary due to the slow forward motion?
Quoting 1507. Mikla:


Quoting 1508. Drakoen:

Joaquin is stuck in the deformation zone which will make it harder to assume a more northeast direction. Water vapor imagery show the push from the high to the southwest, while the trough over the eastern U.S. is advancing eastward.


It could become stuck in place. Reminds me of the squeeze play we had with Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Eventually the high won after several days. Also the upper low appears to be digging further south than what the GFS has and more in line with the NAM. Could be an interesting standoff.
Quoting 1507. Mikla:




Big eye about to pop out imo
Quoting 1505. Articuno:


Read it over again.

"... minimal or no loss of life ..."

I think you can answer this question yourself.. it's obvious nobody (unless you're mentally sick) wants anyone to die.



1497 was REALLY uncalled for.
Here comes the rain event, JQ moisture stream hooking up with the trough.

1517. Mikla
Quoting 1511. SecretStormNerd:

Does it look stationary due to the slow forward motion?

It just looks that way, but based on Shortwave it appears to be moving N or maybe NNW.
Quoting 1497. LouisPasteur:



When you pray for "minimal" loss of life, do you specify in your prayers which few individuals should die?


and taking into consideration that we don't KNOW if there has been any yet....as much of a Christian as I am.... I am sure there wont be a Lazarus effect here ..... Wannabe doesn't post derogatory stuff....you should read something before you post....
Quoting 1500. StormTrackerScott:



I'm sorry I thought you were referring to me. I did say I wouldn't be surprised to see some loss of life out of this but I hope for the best. My issue is if people had limited warning then there could be some issues as infrastructure is not the best on some of these island. Nassau is well designed to deal with powerful hurricanes but some aren't I was in Long Island several weeks back and many of those areas are very poor.


Agree with you there. They did have warning but yes it was limited.
Quoting 1513. StormTrackerScott:



It could become stuck in place. Reminds me of the squeeze play we had with Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Eventually the high won after several days

Exactly. I trust the NHC, but I was wondering about this yesterday. I still think there are too many variables in play for the language/posture being used on "The Weather Channel" website. Just my opinion.
Quoting 1477. Camerooski:

Scott is that possible Kate still something that JB is predicting to come close to FL?
JB hasn't predicted anything is coming close to Florida.
Quoting 1513. StormTrackerScott:



It could become stuck in place. Reminds me of the squeeze play we had with Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Eventually the high won after several days. Also the upper low appears to be digging further south than what the GFS has and more in line with the NAM. Could be an interesting standoff.
so what would that do...? Would it be more likely to see a NW-NNW-N movement rather than a N-NNE-NE movement? Or something else?
Finally seeing some weakening, I don't think we'll see any more strengthening until JQ moves north.

You can't spin over the same area for 2 days and maintain that kind of intensity.
Quoting 1521. PensacolaDoug:

JB hasn't predicted anything is coming close to Florida.
IDK Scott told me yesterday, and showed me a future pic, where future Kate was just north of the Leewards and 2 strong Highs forcing it in our direction, and no sign of a trough. Obviously though, if the NHC can't predict were Joaquin can go, then why should this come true.... But just a thought :)
1526. Murko
Thanks, Baha. You too.
If another storm this year goes over the Bahamas, I wonder if it will weaken due to the insane upwelling...?
Quoting 1523. LouisPasteur:



Why wouldn't you just pray for no loss of life and leave it at that? Why the "Well, if You have to kill someone, can You please try to keep the numbers down?" Are there some individuals that you know in the Bahamas that you wouldn't mind seeing die?


You're taking his statement way too literally/seriously. He didn't mean that.
if 97 and 98C be comes name storm the next two on the list are Oho and pali
Quoting 1527. GeoffreyWPB:


The LBAR predicted the OTS before the Euro did, so we should be paying more attention to the LBAR maybe?
1532. ricderr
Wow. While you are enjoying relatively low humidity, people in the Bahamas are dying and being pounded by a Category 4 storm. Thank the weather gods? This could be one of the most insensitive posts I have read on the entire Internet. Please pray to your gods that they move this storm away from land.


sorry......i can't agree with you.......we are all products of our own lives...it's all we can control...and while it's tough some days to listen to someone be thankful while our heart aches for another situation.....we are better people..when we live in an attitude of being thankful......if we consider your approach...then why are we even on the computer now and not mourning the lives lost in the oregon shooting yesterday....why are we not in thoughtful silence for the millions of refugees traveling through europe right now....i'm not saying forget about tragedies...in fact i urge all to do what they can for those in positions of trouble...and right here on WU we have portlight and there are so many other organizations...here's a personal example and i pray that it doesn't take a personal example in your life to get it...
i was taking the elevator to see my newborn daughter one morning....she was in the nicu unit...born three months premature.....and her chances of surviving were under 30 percent.....26 miles to the north in another hospital was her mother in a coma...she had died on the operating table twice the night before and had been resuscitated but was not supposed to survive the day as her eeg readings were showing less and less brain activity...in the elevator were two nurses...and one nurse was complaining about how she had wore the wrong shoes and her feet were going to hurt...she even said...this is going to be the worst day of my life...i got furious...i stood there boiling and all i wanted to do was choke the shit out of her...and then...the thought crossed my mind...thank god that the possibility of sore feet would be all it took to have the worst day of your life...and i vowed that in the worst days of my life i would try to find something to be thankful about....so yes...my heart goes out that people in the bahamas are suffering...but i'm also thanfull that "secret' is happy and less humid....they both make up the weave that is our lives
Quoting 1523. LouisPasteur:






Seriously, go away
Quoting 1532. ricderr:

Wow. While you are enjoying relatively low humidity, people in the Bahamas are dying and being pounded by a Category 4 storm. Thank the weather gods? This could be one of the most insensitive posts I have read on the entire Internet. Please pray to your gods that they move this storm away from land.


sorry......i can't agree with you.......we are all products of our own lives...it's all we can control...and while it's tough some days to listen to someone be thankful while our heart aches for another situation.....we are better people..when we live in an attitude of being thankful......if we consider your approach...then why are we even on the computer now and not mourning the lives lost in the oregon shooting yesterday....why are we not in thoughtful silence for the millions of refugees traveling through europe right now....i'm not saying forget about tragedies...in fact i urge all to do what they can for those in positions of trouble...and right here on WU we have portlight and there are so many other organizations...here's a personal example and i pray that it doesn't take a personal example in your life to get it...
i was taking the elevator to see my newborn daughter one morning....she was in the nicu unit...born three months premature.....and her chances of surviving were under 30 percent.....26 miles to the north in another hospital was her mother in a coma...she had died on the operating table twice the night before and had been resuscitated but was not supposed to survive the day as her eeg readings were showing less and less brain activity...in the elevator were two nurses...and one nurse was complaining about how she had wore the wrong shoes and her feet were going to hurt...she even said...this is going to be the worst day of my life...i got furious...i stood there boiling and all i wanted to do was choke the shit out of her...and then...the thought crossed my mind...thank god that the possibility of sore feet would be all it took to have the worst day of your life...and i vowed that in the worst days of my life i would try to find something to be thankful about....so yes...my heart goes out that people in the bahamas are suffering...but i'm also thanfull that "secret' is happy and less humid....they both make up the weave that is our lives
Are you guys seriously still fighting over that.....
if the C PAC can get 3 more name storms if it can uesd the 1st up comeing names on the list this would be the 1st time ever that the C PAC has uesd all its name on the list
1537. rod2635
Quoting 1523. LouisPasteur:



Why wouldn't you just pray for no loss of life and leave it at that? Why the "Well, if You have to kill someone, can You please try to keep the numbers down?" Are there some individuals that you know in the Bahamas that you wouldn't mind seeing die?


Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. From the rules of the road. It's getting tiresome gentlemen.
1538. fmbill
Quoting 1529. Articuno:



You're taking his statement way too literally/seriously. He didn't mean that.

Please don't feed the trolls.
Quoting 1534. Camerooski:

I don't understand why the NHC had to give the name Joaquin, like seriously? Were not in Mexico.... Make Hurricane Cam....



TD 9 did not get a name storm so if TD 9 did got a upgrade then that would have been JQ and this would have been kate
Quoting 1513. StormTrackerScott:



It could become stuck in place. Reminds me of the squeeze play we had with Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Eventually the high won after several days. Also the upper low appears to be digging further south than what the GFS has and more in line with the NAM. Could be an interesting standoff.


When Ivan was in the Caribbean model consensus was right up the spine of Florida. The high filled further west than forecasted,and pushed Ivan 200 miles west. That high is building in.
Quoting 1534. Camerooski:

I don't understand why the NHC had to give the name Joaquin, like seriously? Were not in Mexico.... Make Hurricane Cam....


with that logic, most of them should have African names since that is where MOST of them originated....
Can't believe I took that bait.
Quoting 1534. Camerooski:

I don't understand why the NHC had to give the name Joaquin, like seriously? Were not in Mexico.... Make Hurricane Cam....


Jesus Christ, are you kidding me? Mods get this crap under control.
Quoting 1466. cyberian:

Just my 2 cents....this is not a fish storm. It has and continues to pummel the Bahamas. Bless them all. Based on current and projected conditions the storm will go out to sea. However, never turn your back on a storm until it is well past you, conditions can and do change.


The most wise words I have heard on this board in a long time.
1545. Drakoen
Latest fix indicates that Joaquin is taking on an easterly component to his motion:

I still just can't get over the CMC It has not moved one bit for days...................
Quoting 1538. fmbill:


Please don't feed the trolls.


Took me awhile to realize.. I seriously thought he was just some insecure person that didn't see what he meant for some reason.. My bad.
I come to the blogs in the morning and I come to the mess going on in the blog comments. :/
1550. Torito
The immaturity in this blog the last few days has been extreme.. We need more mods that actually get rid of this crap!

Anyways..

Recon is finding JQ to be a weakening system... yesterday we had a 932MB system.. Now we have pressures of 937 and rising. That's always a good sign.

Quoting 1550. Torito:

The immaturity in this blog the last few days has been extreme.. We need more mods that actually get rid of this crap!

Anyways..

Recon is finding JQ to be a weakening system... yesterday we had a 932MB system.. Now we have pressures of 937 and rising. That's always a good sign.




Possibly a result of EWRC
Quoting 1530. Tazmanian:

if 97 and 98C be comes name storm the next two on the list are Oho and pali

Thanks Taz. Do you still think that this won't go out to sea? If so, where do you think it will go?
Quoting 1552. Llamaluvr:

Thanks Taz. Do you still think that this won't go out to sea? If so, where do you think it will go?



its little extreme in here right now i wait and tell things have clam down some on the blog and the mods come on if you want too no please look back a few pages
Well, we are getting our first downpour of the storm here in western New Providence ... winds are still relatively light. I know the doc and the mister have been saying high winds would be the biggest concern, but I have a feeling that for the NW Bahamas the flooding, especially freshwater flooding, will end up being the bigger issue.

One is hoping to see that N to NE shift happening sooner rather than later .....

Does the Bahamas have a weather radar? I don't see any one posting pictures from it, and their weather site just links to satellite weather images.
Drakoen do you think Joaquin will go east or west of the NHC track?
1557. aquak9
I don't see any mods around right now- or they are just getting here- anyway- -

Ya'll know how to get rid of those offensive posts. Use the minus sign, use the flag sign. We can
get the default system to remove the posts, but we HAVE to use the tools provided to us.
1558. Drakoen
Quoting 1556. TheBigBanana:

Drakoen do you think Joaquin will go east or west of the NHC track?


On or to the east of.
Has a better chance of going east of it looking at the latest models.
Quoting 1508. Drakoen:

Joaquin is stuck in the deformation zone which will make it harder to assume a more northeast direction. Water vapor imagery show the push from the high to the southwest, while the trough over the eastern U.S. is advancing eastward.


I've been stuck in that "deformation zone" since the day I turned 50, just ask my wife!
Quoting 1543. VAbeachhurricanes:



Jesus Christ, are you kidding me? Mods get this crap under control.


I'm calling the school principal right now & reporting this misuse of school resources !!
1561. Torito
Quoting 1555. cindyker:

Does the Bahamas have a weather radar? I don't see any one posting pictures from it, and their weather site just links to satellite weather images.


With this thing just sitting here this long, any radar there would most certainly be down by now. This is likely why you haven't seen anything recently.
Quoting 1534. Camerooski:

I don't understand why the NHC had to give the name Joaquin, like seriously? Were not in Mexico.... Make Hurricane Cam....


Cam, no one is going to name a hurricane after you.
1563. Torito
Quoting 1557. aquak9:

I don't see any mods around right now- or they are just getting here- anyway- -

Ya'll know how to get rid of those offensive posts. Use the minus sign, use the flag sign. We can
get the default system to remove the posts, but we HAVE to use the tools provided to us.


I cant use it, the button is broken on IE11.. lol
There aren't any minus signs. But I have used the flag button this morning. A lot.
Quoting 1547. Camerooski:

That just made me pee a little lol


I don't recall Ivan having that huge ridge to it's west giving it the middle finger while shouting "None shall pass!" however, so I wouldn't stress over Florida at this point in time.
1566. fmbill
Quoting 1545. Drakoen:

Latest fix indicates that Joaquin is taking on an easterly component to his motion:



And the pressure is starting to creep up a little.
The models are still all over the place. :{
Quoting 1557. aquak9:

I don't see any mods around right now- or they are just getting here- anyway- -

Ya'll know how to get rid of those offensive posts. Use the minus sign, use the flag sign. We can
get the default system to remove the posts, but we HAVE to use the tools provided to us.


I think they need to bring back the old downvote system where too many negative votes could get a post removed or tip off the mods.
Quoting 1563. Torito:



I cant use it, the button is broken on IE11.. lol



the button is broken on google chorme has well
Quoting 1562. FunnelVortex:



Cam, no one is going to name a hurricane after you.



A new species of mosquito, maybe.
1571. will45
Quoting 1568. FunnelVortex:



I think they need to bring back the old downvote system where too many negative votes could get a post removed or tip off the mods.



I agree but the ignore feature here would work if people just stop quoting the trolls
To StormTrackerScott,

Please avoid these didactic statements with "all" and "no" regarding events in the Bahamas. Those who are here can attest to the fact that what you are saying is FALSE.

And will you stop the nonsense about the "infrastructure"? What infrastructure are you referring to anyway? Roads? Public buildings? Electricity? Phone service? How is any of these appreciably worse than what you might see in some parts of Central Florida?

People build for storms here. Those with less than sturdy structures generally move to shelter with family or to a government run shelter.

Additionally it's obvious Scott has been repeating the politically motivated comments of some anti-government people here in our country, who would use a situation like this to beat up on the powers that be and to cast blame on them.
Quoting 1555. cindyker:

Does the Bahamas have a weather radar? I don't see any one posting pictures from it, and their weather site just links to satellite weather images.


I heard that it was non-op awaiting some spares even before JOAQUIN
1574. Torito
Why is there Sub 935 pressure there but it says 937 and rising on the chart?..

Quoting 1541. tiggeriffic:



with that logic, most of them should have African names since that is where MOST of them originated....
How do you like Abu Dabi,Watanabe,Burubdanga.
virtually no wind or clouds here in south FL. I am always at awe as to how a major can be so close to my home yet it looks beautiful out..... Beach day here in S FL.
trollin this morning...god i hate reading that bull$#!+
1578. aquak9
For those who have the ability to use the flag/notifiy admin tools, please continue to do so.

For those that do NOT have that ability, please feel free to wu-mail your friendly local Moderator.
What in the world did I miss?!?!
1580. Torito
1581. MahFL
Some intense convection on the southern eyewall, not good...

1582. Torito
Quoting 1578. aquak9:

For those who have the ability to use the flag/notifiy admin tools, please continue to do so.

For those that do NOT have that ability, please feel free to wu-mail your friendly local Moderator.


They always ignore me... lol :P
Can someone tell me how this is going to go NE into all the dry air? I can see N
Quoting 1532. ricderr:

Wow. While you are enjoying relatively low humidity, people in the Bahamas are dying and being pounded by a Category 4 storm. Thank the weather gods? This could be one of the most insensitive posts I have read on the entire Internet. Please pray to your gods that they move this storm away from land.


sorry......i can't agree with you.......we are all products of our own lives...it's all we can control...and while it's tough some days to listen to someone be thankful while our heart aches for another situation.....we are better people..when we live in an attitude of being thankful......if we consider your approach...then why are we even on the computer now and not mourning the lives lost in the oregon shooting yesterday....why are we not in thoughtful silence for the millions of refugees traveling through europe right now....i'm not saying forget about tragedies...in fact i urge all to do what they can for those in positions of trouble...and right here on WU we have portlight and there are so many other organizations...here's a personal example and i pray that it doesn't take a personal example in your life to get it...
i was taking the elevator to see my newborn daughter one morning....she was in the nicu unit...born three months premature.....and her chances of surviving were under 30 percent.....26 miles to the north in another hospital was her mother in a coma...she had died on the operating table twice the night before and had been resuscitated but was not supposed to survive the day as her eeg readings were showing less and less brain activity...in the elevator were two nurses...and one nurse was complaining about how she had wore the wrong shoes and her feet were going to hurt...she even said...this is going to be the worst day of my life...i got furious...i stood there boiling and all i wanted to do was choke the shit out of her...and then...the thought crossed my mind...thank god that the possibility of sore feet would be all it took to have the worst day of your life...and i vowed that in the worst days of my life i would try to find something to be thankful about....so yes...my heart goes out that people in the bahamas are suffering...but i'm also thanfull that "secret' is happy and less humid....they both make up the weave that is our lives
Thanks for sharing this, Rick. This was my response too ... that at least somebody is getting a cooler, day out of this mess. Hey, we'd like to be on that side of the front, too ..... and Joaquin far away.
Quoting 1555. cindyker:

Does the Bahamas have a weather radar? I don't see any one posting pictures from it, and their weather site just links to satellite weather images.
Weather radar is down and has been for ages ....
Quoting 1571. will45:




I agree but the ignore feature here would work if people just stop quoting the trolls


Also it seems a lot of comments are hidden by default for some reason and there is no way to "like" those comments. They should change that :/
Quoting 1583. SFLWeatherman:

Can someone tell me how this is going to go NE into all the dry air?



That cutoff low looks like it retrograded a little bit the last couple of frames
1587. fmbill

Moisture streaming up the eastern seaboard from Joaquin.
Quoting 1576. forecaster1:

virtually no wind or clouds here in south FL. I am always at awe as to how a major can be so close to my home yet it looks beautiful out..... Beach day here in S FL.


It is kinda strange that something so large and powerful is so close and yet we are enjoying tranquil weather. Hope everyone is the Bahamas is safe.
1589. IDTH
What the heck is going on in the blog!?
1590. Grothar
Quoting 1571. will45:




I agree but the ignore feature here would work if people just stop quoting the trolls


I used the ignore this morning, will, and now I only see two names and I'm not even one of them. :)

I think a few people need a reality check and the only one that can do that for them is themselves.

By the way, I think the models will change again today.

Quoting 1584. BahaHurican:

Thanks for sharing this, Rick. This was my response too ... that at least somebody is getting a cooler, day out of this mess. Hey, we'd like to be on that side of the front, too ..... and Joaquin far away. Weather radar is down and has been for ages ....


Why wouldn't they get a new radar or fix the current one?
Breezy and overcast in Port St. Lucie, Fl. Cooler too. Guess front is finally moving through.
Quoting 1583. SFLWeatherman:

Can someone tell me how this is going to go NE into all the dry air?



That is a good question. I have been thinking Carolina hit from the get go but what do I know. It is possible it goes NE and just gets torn apart but looking at that map, there is no where for it to go except the Carolinas in my opinion.
Quoting 1590. Grothar:



I used the ignore this morning, will, and now I only see two names and I'm not even one of them. :)

I think a few people need a reality check and the only one that can do that for them is themselves.

By the way, I think the models will change again today.





How do you think they will change?
1595. ncstorm
But yet I got a ban yesterday regarding the trolling...

Isn't Moderation great..
Quoting 1590. Grothar:



I used the ignore this morning, will, and now I only see two names and I'm not even one of them. :)

I think a few people need a reality check and the only one that can do that for them is themselves.

By the way, I think the models will change again today.





Due east?
Quoting 1554. BahaHurican:

Well, we are getting our first downpour of the storm here in western New Providence ... winds are still relatively light. I know the doc and the mister have been saying high winds would be the biggest concern, but I have a feeling that for the NW Bahamas the flooding, especially freshwater flooding, will end up being the bigger issue.

One is hoping to see that N to NE shift happening sooner rather than later .....




As a fellow Islander, albeit way South of you in Cayman - to you all Hang Tough for a while longer. IMHO the light is glimmering at the end of the tunnel so to speak. I well know that then the hard work of clean-up and recovery begins in earnest, but I also know that there will be help from all over the place - from Caribbean Power Companies etc etc.
next weekend MJO pays a visit
1599. will45
Quoting 1585. FunnelVortex:



Also it seems a lot of comments are hidden by default for some reason and there is no way to "like" those comments. They should change that :/


do you have show all in your settings?
Quoting 1581. MahFL:

Some intense convection on the southern eyewall, not good...


Looks like Rum Cay is in the eye .... :o/
SMILE BROTHER.... I agree models will shift today...
Quoting 1590. Grothar:



I used the ignore this morning, will, and now I only see two names and I'm not even one of them. :)

I think a few people need a reality check and the only one that can do that for them is themselves.

By the way, I think the models will change again today.


Quoting 1586. tornadodude:



That cutoff low looks like it retrograded a little bit the last couple of frames


Likely due to that high in Canada
Quoting 1589. IDTH:

What the heck is going on in the blog!?



this blog as gone way off topic and with no mods its getting out of hand i would lurk for now in tell thing have clam down in here and modes comes on
Can't really argue with all the major models and the high confidence of the experts at the NHC, but the WV sure makes it "look" like the path of least resistance is to the NNW towards NC.
Quoting 1599. will45:



do you have show all in your settings?


Oh.. Nevermind.
I wonder if there's this one guy at the NHC who's like... "I dunno, Frank. Maybe we should pay attention to the BAMD."

It's cray cray here this am. Feels like 2008. (hehehheheh)
1607. Grothar
Quoting 1580. Torito:




That's old.

Well, dry air from the NE is getting really close to this storm.

Carribean Water Vapor Map

What are the chances JQ starts sucking on this delicious dry goodness and begins winding down?
1609. MahFL
For South Carolina, note they use the word "particularly" :

* PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG SMALL
STREAMS AND LOW-LYING LOCATIONS PLUS URBAN AREAS."
Get centered everyone.
Breathe.
This is no light matter.
Ok back to storm talk. Anyone think the models will swing back west or will they continue east. I'm on the OBX and we have all let our guard down as far as the hurricane is concerned. Still will get some flooding.
1612. Torito
Quoting 1607. Grothar:



That's old.




My bad. Long time no see, Gro. How are you doing? I heard you are doing better now..
1613. ricderr
Thanks for sharing this, Rick. This was my response too ... that at least somebody is getting a cooler, day out of this mess. Hey, we'd like to be on that side of the front, too ..... and Joaquin far away.



you my friend....stay safe
1614. 7544
Quoting 1462. MahFL:

Here in Orange Park my pressure is 1005mb, lowest it's been in a long time. It's also a coolish 71 F.


what does that mean when pressure is low and falling when a hurricane is close by tia
It looks like the Raleigh/Durham area really might have dodged a bullet regarding flooding. It's been rainy, but nothing we can't handle.
Quoting 1595. ncstorm:

But yet I got a ban yesterday regarding the trolling...

Isn't Moderation great..


I remember one time this guy was trolling the blog during Haiyan, and I told him to shut up. I ended up getting banned for an hour for telling the guy to shut up while the troll only got a five minute han even though he was constantly trolling and just returned to his antics.

Ive also been banned numerous times because the mod currently on duty didn't like my sense of humor :)

Wunderground actually has some very great mods though, but just like any site, you are bound to have some bad mods as well.
Quoting 1601. forecaster1:

SMILE BROTHER.... I agree models will shift today...


Shift which direction?
I come on this morning and its like a wilds chool bus.Still looking Wahkeen to hook a hard right out to sea? It has been raining now for 24 hours.The sun went into hiding Tuesday and hasn't returned since.
Quoting 1572. BahaHurican:

To StormTrackerScott,

Please avoid these didactic statements with "all" and "no" regarding events in the Bahamas. Those who are here can attest to the fact that what you are saying is FALSE.

And will you stop the nonsense about the "infrastructure"? What infrastructure are you referring to anyway? Roads? Public buildings? Electricity? Phone service? How is any of these appreciably worse than what you might see in some parts of Central Florida?

People build for storms here. Those with less than sturdy structures generally move to shelter with family or to a government run shelter.

Additionally it's obvious Scott has been repeating the politically motivated comments of some anti-government people here in our country, who would use a situation like this to beat up on the powers that be and to cast blame on them.


He said he had been there "several weeks back" , obviously he must have stayed at the Holiday Inn there!
Quoting 1572. BahaHurican:

To StormTrackerScott,

Please avoid these didactic statements with "all" and "no" regarding events in the Bahamas. Those who are here can attest to the fact that what you are saying is FALSE.

And will you stop the nonsense about the "infrastructure"? What infrastructure are you referring to anyway? Roads? Public buildings? Electricity? Phone service? How is any of these appreciably worse than what you might see in some parts of Central Florida?

People build for storms here. Those with less than sturdy structures generally move to shelter with family or to a government run shelter.

Additionally it's obvious Scott has been repeating the politically motivated comments of some anti-government people here in our country, who would use a situation like this to beat up on the powers that be and to cast blame on them.
Hi Baha. Somehow wu's clueless weather voyeurs come out at times like these. I feel for you in this situation. Take care.
:)
1621. Torito
Quoting 1614. 7544:



what does that mean when pressure is low and falling when a hurricane is close by tia


In general, lower pressures (<1000MB) indicate harsher weather. Very high pressure (1030 MB) will indicate clear skies. The lower the pressure, the stronger the hurricane is in general.
Hoping Joaquin makes haste and turns out of the Bahamas.

Meanwhile, it's been raining steady since yesterday evening.

1623. Drakoen
Quoting 1618. washingtonian115:

I come on this morning and its like a wilds chool bus.Still looking Wahkeen to hook a hard right out to sea? It has been raining now for 24 hours.The sun went into hiding Tuesday and hasn't returned since.


Personally, enjoying it. A nice change from the hot summer we've had.
Quoting 1614. 7544:



what does that mean when pressure is low and falling when a hurricane is close by tia


His pressure is likely falling due to the front.
Quoting 1585. FunnelVortex:



Also it seems a lot of comments are hidden by default for some reason and there is no way to "like" those comments. They should change that :/
Change your filter to [show bad] or [show all]. Then only the bloggers you have ignored will be missing.
Quoting 1591. FunnelVortex:



Why wouldn't they get a new radar or fix the current one?
Looong, possibly political, story, short, money. They have perfectly good radar; I think they made a decision not to fund the online uploading of imagery. BUT that is just my opinion.
Quoting 1597. SSideBrac:



As a fellow Islander, albeit way South of you in Cayman - to you all Hang Tough for a while longer. IMHO the light is glimmering at the end of the tunnel so to speak. I well know that then the hard work of clean-up and recovery begins in earnest, but I also know that there will be help from all over the place - from Caribbean Power Companies etc etc.
Thank you. We have a good cooperative system in the Caribbean for this sort of thing, and I know pple from here who have worked in various Caribbean islands after hurricanes to help with the power grid and so on. I know we've had help in the past too. Hopefully the worst hit islands will be back on line within a week or two .... :o/ I have a feeling washed out roads will be a MAJOR problem post factum.
I was ban for defending the NHC this week...What's happening now MODS?
Quoting 1621. Torito:



In general, lower pressures (>1000MB) indicate harsher weather. Very high pressure (1030+MB) will indicate clear skies. The lower the pressure, the stronger the hurricane is in general.


You flipped your greater than/less than sign :0 sorry to be that guy
Quoting 1583. SFLWeatherman:

Can someone tell me how this is going to go NE into all the dry air? I can see N



It's forecast to go along the boundary of the very dry air, not into it. So north then northeast.
1629. Grothar
Quoting 1594. FunnelVortex:




How do you think they will change?


Hey Funnel! Come on. You know I don't know much about the tropics. :)

With blog the way it is, I'm afraid to say anything, lest I be considered insensitive. If I mention the flooding in South Carolina, I am sure someone will write that I don't care about the people in North Carolina. If I write about the strong winds in the Southern Bahamas, someone will ask why I didn't mention the Central Bahamas. So, I will just look at my little colorful maps and figure out where it is really going.
Quoting 1618. washingtonian115:

I come on this morning and its like a wilds chool bus.Still looking Wahkeen to hook a hard right out to sea? It has been raining now for 24 hours.The sun went into hiding Tuesday and hasn't returned since.


Great comment Wahsheentone wan wan fighve
1631. MahFL
Quoting 1591. FunnelVortex:



Why wouldn't they get a new radar or fix the current one?


The Bahamas are a poor nation.
Quoting 1619. tropicofcancer:



He said he had been there "several weeks back" , obviously he must have stayed at the Holiday Inn there!
I'm still waiting to hear which island[s] he visited .... maybe I missed the post where Scott responded to my question.

1633. nash36
Wife just informed me that Cantore is here in Charleston now.

Welcome back, Jim!
Quoting 1617. DurhamWeatherLover:



Shift which direction?
To Manhattan.
1635. MahFL
It's not all paradise in the Bahamas :

"45 per cent of all poor households are headed by single female parents and children 14 years and younger comprise 50 per cent of the nation's poor."
depends on how long it stays trapped. At this moment westish.....IMHO.
Quoting 1617. DurhamWeatherLover:



Shift which direction?
Quoting 1631. MahFL:



The Bahamas are a poor nation.
LOL .... really????
Quoting 1623. Drakoen:



Personally, enjoying it. A nice change from the hot summer we've had.
Haven't had temps like this since very early May.Rain may start to cause serious problems as it starts to pile up.
Quoting 1633. nash36:

Wife just informed me that Cantore is here in Charleston now.

Welcome back, Jim!
Oh no,Charleston is doom.


Looks like none of the ensemble members are taking J into the US now...
Quoting 1629. Grothar:



Hey Funnel! Come on. You know I don't know much about the tropics. :)

With blog the way it is, I'm afraid to say anything, lest I be considered insensitive. If I mention the flooding in South Carolina, I am sure someone will write that I don't care about the people in North Carolina. If I write about the strong winds in the Southern Bahamas, someone will ask why I didn't mention the Central Bahamas. So, I will just look at my little colorful maps and figure out where it is really going.


You could say the Carolinas, but I've seen someone get upset over that too!
what does a retrograded low mean in terms of a storms path?
Quoting 1586. tornadodude:



That cutoff low looks like it retrograded a little bit the last couple of frames
Quoting 1545. Drakoen:

Latest fix indicates that Joaquin is taking on an easterly component to his motion:


That may be a little noise due to the EWRC.
1644. ncstorm

Quoting 1633. nash36:

Wife just informed me that Cantore is here in Charleston now.

Welcome back, Jim!


wasnt Charleston where he did a karate kick at the student who ran at him live on TV?
Quoting 1635. MahFL:

It's not all paradise in the Bahamas :

"45 per cent of all poor households are headed by single female parents and children 14 years and younger comprise 50 per cent of the nation's poor."

Yes, but what percentage of the nation's population is considered below the poverty line?
Quoting 1631. MahFL:



The Bahamas are a poor nation.


The Bahamas are not poor.
I thought he acted as sort of a storm shield?
Quoting 1639. hurricanefishfla:

Oh no,Charleston is doom.
Quoting 1631. MahFL:



The Bahamas are a poor nation.
Yeah,poor Bahamas.
Quoting 1629. Grothar:



Hey Funnel! Come on. You know I don't know much about the tropics. :)

With blog the way it is, I'm afraid to say anything, lest I be considered insensitive. If I mention the flooding in South Carolina, I am sure someone will write that I don't care about the people in North Carolina. If I write about the strong winds in the Southern Bahamas, someone will ask why I didn't mention the Central Bahamas. So, I will just look at my little colorful maps and figure out where it is really going.


Why are you ignoring my nice weather in Palm Harbor?🍻🍻🍻
Quoting 1615. DurhamWeatherLover:

It looks like the Raleigh/Durham area really might have dodged a bullet regarding flooding. It's been rainy, but nothing we can't handle.


Better nab some Duke tickets, they've discounted them! Usually you'd have to pay me to go see Duke football (or really any football in the ACC, sorry Tigers fans).

Wilmington's forecast for rain atm has dropped just a little since yesterday, but Charleston's seems to have gone up. And it's supposed to be windier.

1651. barbamz
Quoting 1640. rwdobson:



Looks like none of the ensemble members are taking J into the US now...

Shooting right over the ocean this way (GFS operational) Joaquin may cause an epic windstorm in Europe.
1652. LargoFl
Quoting 1642. SecretStormNerd:

what does a retrograded low mean in terms of a storms path?


If it were to continue, it could possibly allow Joaquin to move west a little more. However, I think it's just a temporary motion. Seems like the front has made a little more progress across Florida, and the impacts on Joaquin can be seen just off the coast (moisture streaming north).
Tides running about 3 feet above predicted levels in lower Chesapeake Bay and Virginia's tidewater region; peak expected between noon and 2 pm ET - @weatherchannel
Quoting 1638. washingtonian115:

Haven't had temps like this since very early May.Rain may start to cause serious problems as it starts to pile up.


Wife is sick and I turned on heat this morning. We did have a period this cold in early June but year.. it's been a consistently hot summer and early autumn. This feels good by contrast!

Really worried about my friends on Long Island Bahamas even though their homes are built elevated on solid coral rock. Some of their infrastucture (airport.. inundated in past events) is built on low flat land.
That hurricane sure in the grips of two powerful upper lows. It looks like a vise in the water vapor loop. May have a quick down hill when it heads north.Am sure the people in the Bahamas are saying when God when.
1657. nash36
Quoting 1644. ncstorm:




wasnt Charleston where he did a karate kick at the student who ran at him live on TV?


Yes. Some dweeb with a double digit IQ (probably stoned) from the College of Charleston, thought he'd be a hero to his friends. Then Jim rattled his twins.
1658. FOREX
Quoting 1641. DurhamWeatherLover:



You could say the Carolinas, but I've seen someone get upset over that too!
It's probably best that no more posts are made until June 1.
Quoting 1644. ncstorm:




wasnt Charleston where he did a karate kick at the student who ran at him live on TV?


Yep, at the c of cha during that first ice storm two winters ago (the second one was the real bad one)
1660. ncstorm
Quoting 1637. BahaHurican:

LOL .... really????


People really rolled out of the bed this morning and thought hey let me get on WU and personally attack the Bahamians while I drink my coffee..

Quoting 1657. nash36:



Yes. Some dweeb with a double digit IQ (probably stoned) from the College of Charleston, thought he'd be a hero to his friends. Then Jim rattled his twins.


Probably drunk or both. Stoned kids don't get that ambitious lol
1663. Grothar
Quoting 1612. Torito:



My bad. Long time no see, Gro. How are you doing? I heard you are doing better now..


Hey, Torito. How are you doing? Not on much anymore. I'm actually not doing better. I think a destructive storm like this in the area has everyone on edge. To see a system that strong in the Bahamas and possibly affecting the US and Bermuda and other places, has everyone on edge. Not knowing where this will be is very unnerving.

Hope to see you on more.
Quoting 1572. BahaHurican:

To StormTrackerScott,

Please avoid these didactic statements with "all" and "no" regarding events in the Bahamas. Those who are here can attest to the fact that what you are saying is FALSE.

And will you stop the nonsense about the "infrastructure"? What infrastructure are you referring to anyway? Roads? Public buildings? Electricity? Phone service? How is any of these appreciably worse than what you might see in some parts of Central Florida?

People build for storms here. Those with less than sturdy structures generally move to shelter with family or to a government run shelter.

Additionally it's obvious Scott has been repeating the politically motivated comments of some anti-government people here in our country, who would use a situation like this to beat up on the powers that be and to cast blame on them.


Bottomline Baha like it or not and you know this . I can tell you that there are islands that are very poor as in poor building structures. The area Joaquin came in is not that equip to deal with something like this. That is my point take it as you wish. Nassau is built great for something like this but other islands are not. Geesh!
Quoting 1640. rwdobson:



Looks like none of the ensemble members are taking J into the US now...


Is it initialized as a Cat-3, or has the database either not updated it or not yet changed the adjusted range for a Cat-4 hurricane?
1666. Grothar
Quoting 1641. DurhamWeatherLover:



You could say the Carolinas, but I've seen someone get upset over that too!


LOL.
1667. MahFL
Quoting 1645. BahaHurican:

Yes, but what percentage of the nation's population is considered below the poverty line?


The figure I see is 9.3 %, which is not too bad really. But the figure is at least 8 years old.
Quoting 1660. ncstorm:



People really rolled out of the bed this morning and thought hey let me get on WU and personally attack the Bahamians while I drink my coffee..




He himself was on here saying the samething yesterday. I mean come on. You can't say some islands have poor infrastructure without some sort of resistance on here. I know this as I was there no once not twice but likely over 50 times over the last 10 years or so. Without notable warnings then there are likely some issues ongoing in these hardest hit areas.
Quoting 1655. georgevandenberghe:



Wife is sick and I turned on heat this morning. We did have a period this cold in early June but year.. it's been a consistently hot summer and early autumn. This feels good by contrast!

Really worried about my friends on Long Island Bahamas even though their homes are built elevated on solid coral rock. Some of their infrastucture (airport.. inundated in past events) is built on low flat land.

Yes I turned on the heat this morning as well with temps being a stark contrast from Tuesday.Thankfully the Bahamas are kinda built like Bermuda with areas of high elevation and hard rock.They aren't built like the OXB.
Hang in there Baha and friends. From the Navy satellite image loop Joaquin's eye looks like it is over Rum Cay and is now moving north with a bit of an easterly component.

Link
good morning everyone.
Quoting 1667. MahFL:



The figure I see is 9.3 %, which is not too bad really. But the figure is at least 8 years old.
Is this a weather topic? Man I think this blog is depressed.
There appears to be a closed upper low visible in WV imagery at about 31N 63W. I haven't seen it really fully depicted in any of the models or on any forecast maps.

NE turn seems to be clear on the Water Vapor map.
Quoting 1665. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is it initialized as a Cat-3, or has the database either not updated it or not yet changed the adjusted range for a Cat-4 hurricane?


You are reading too much into a WU graphic. The GFS has lots and lots of data input into it, including data from the recon flights. And, of course, the ensembles are all initialized with slightly different conditions to give a range of possible outcomes. But the fact that WU's graphic has a red 3 there is not relevant.

Trust me, the people who run these models are not that oblivious. You're welcome to go directly to the source (Google NCEP Models) and look at the runs themselves, and not WU's graphic representation of them.
In Nova Scotia we are thankful to see the cone keep going east. Time to breathe a sigh of relief. Mets up here are not even discussing it now.
There is a 30-35mph NE wind still blowing into the Delmarva/Hampton Roads areas, been like that for days, and coupled with the fact the rain looks like its further north than its suppose to be, there is a lot of water pouring into Norfolk/VA Beach metro.
Quoting 1675. SavannahStorm:

There appears to be a closed upper low visible in WV imagery at about 31N 63W. I haven't seen it really fully depicted in any of the models or on any forecast maps.




Another monkey wrench?
1681. MahFL
JQ seems to be gaining more intense convection as he moves away from the waters he has upwelled. More colder cloudtops :

Quoting 1679. Methurricanes:

There is a 30-35mph NE wind still blowing into the Delmarva/Hampton Roads areas, been like that for days, and coupled with the fact the rain looks like its further north than its suppose to be, there is a lot of water pouring into Norfolk/VA Beach metro.


And heavy rain on the eastern slopes of the blue ridge will send water down there from the west...gonna be a real problem.
Can I put in a request for an updated blog?
1684. Plaza23
Sure seems like persistent troughs that occupy the east coast protect the US from 95% of all Cape Verde or Caribbean originating hurricanes. And we have not had a Bay of Campeche originating strong hurricane in a long time as well.

Anyone that bought hurricane cat bonds after 2005 has made a ton of $$$$$$.
From the AVN images it looks like Haiti and Jamaica are getting drenched as well. Any word of issues from either?
1686. MahFL
Quoting 1678. NovaScotia33:

In Nova Scotia we are thankful to see the cone keep going east. Time to breathe a sigh of relief. Mets up here are not even discussing it now.


You might want to read this bit :

"After that time, there have been some changes in the latest models,
with the GFS trending west from its previous forecast with a track
still offshore but closer to Cape Cod in about 5 days."
1687. 7544
Looks like a new band forming just east of fla in to jo as this is moving nw now could that reach the cost today tia
This was mentioned in today's 5am NHC Joaquin discussion:

The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest, or
315/03, with the hurricane now gaining a bit of latitude based on
recent center fixes. The ridge north of Joaquin will weaken in the
next 12 to 24 hours as a mid/upper-level low moves in from the east,
and the hurricane should begin to move more quickly northward today
and then accelerate northeastward tonight and Saturday.



Quoting 1675. SavannahStorm:

There appears to be a closed upper low visible in WV imagery at about 31N 63W. I haven't seen it really fully depicted in any of the models or on any forecast maps.

1689. ncstorm
1692. FOREX
Quoting 1689. ncstorm:


Well there is the Northward movement. Great news for the Bahamas. Should go OTS as scheduled.
Quoting 1689. ncstorm:




Appears to be finally moving NE. Hopefully it can get out of the Bahamas and let them start their assessment of the situation.
From the NHC website: The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the
United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic
states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas
is decreasing. However, there is still uncertainty in how close
Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape
Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the
hurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for
Bermuda later today.
Well at first I thought 12zNAM was OTS....but It swings JQ back inland Near NC and pin wheels... Very Possible middle ground scenario. I know Nam is better for winter storms but we are dealing with more of a How is this trough going to interact with an area of low pressure situation!!! Rather than were is this storm in the ocean going to go under normal steering patterns!! Being that the NAM has ran 2x or 3x now with this scenario and the bam is holing to its guns.... maybe we should consider????? I think the NAM is accounting for the very strong Bermuda high unlike some other models... Opinions?
Yeah that doesn't look like weakening

949mb Surface (Sea Level) 117 knots (135 mph)
925mb 229m (751 ft) 132 knots (152 mph)
850mb 968m (3,176 ft) 125 knots (144 mph)
1697. ricderr
Haven't had temps like this since very early May.Rain may start to cause serious problems as it starts to pile up.



LOL washi.....now that is insensitive as this week we've tied two all time heat records.......LOL...although it looks like saturday and sunday we won't hit 80 as a cold front is coming through
From the NHC website:Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds
associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy
rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding
over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products
issued by local NWS Forecast Offices.
Very unusual weather in Central Florida. Various cloud types at multiple heights and moving in a Southerly direction. Calm then a bit windy and very scattered precipitation. It would be scary without the satellites and forecasters.
Hmm... nobody has mentioned the recon data.
A dropsonde reported 117 kt winds at the surface (at 1421Z).
Meanwhile, the most recent vortex message states that Joaquin has winds of 104 kt and pressure of 940 mb, slightly weaker than a couple of hours ago.
I think the winds will stay at 115 kt or be slightly lower at 110 kt.
1701. fmbill
A little loop just offshore to say hi before heading out to sea?

Quoting 1693. Sfloridacat5:



Appears to be finally moving NE. Hopefully it can get out of the Bahamas and let them start their assessment of the situation.


Finally behaving!
Quoting 1695. matrcrane:

I think the NAM is accounting for the very strong Bermuda high unlike some other models... Opinions?


On what basis do you describe the Bermuda high as "very strong"? It's not, really, and that's not what the NAM is doing. What it's doing is blowing up the trough to the west and having it capture Joaquin.
1704. MahFL
This went into flood :

11:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 2
Location: 23.5°N 74.8°W
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Quoting 1631. MahFL:



The Bahamas are a poor nation.
No. The Bahamas percentage of people living below the poverty line as of 2004 was 9.3%. That's lower than that found in Canada (9.4), the UK (14), the US (15.1), Germany (15.5), and many dozens of others. By GDP per capita, the Bahamas are ranked between 47th and 48th in the world, ahead of places like Russia, Chile, China, and Argentina. So, no; the Bahamas are *NOT* "a poor nation".
Quoting 1701. fmbill:

A little loop just offshore to say hi before heading out to sea?




The NAM has completely flip flopped over the past few days. It went from a Carolina landfall. Then it switched to a forecast very similar to the Euro showing the system going OTS. Then yesterday it flip flopped again back to the system affecting the S.E. U.S.

In other words, the NAM hasn't shown any consistency over the past few days.
Is the upper low barreling in to the NE of Joaquin going to have any impact such as keeping it on a more N course instead of NE?
Quoting 1695. matrcrane:

Well at first I thought 12zNAM was OTS....but It swings JQ back inland Near NC and pin wheels... Very Possible middle ground scenario. I know Nam is better for winter storms but we are dealing with more of a How is this trough going to interact with an area of low pressure situation!!! Rather than were is this storm in the ocean going to go under normal steering patterns!! Being that the NAM has ran 2x or 3x now with this scenario and the bam is holing to its guns.... maybe we should consider????? I think the NAM is accounting for the very strong Bermuda high unlike some other models... Opinions?


Yeah.... never look at the NAM with tropical systems.

This forecasted for about 5 days now that this isn't going to NC or a long the east coast. Always follow the Euro and GFS when it comes to movement. If both are different...try to look at why 1 of the models were incorrect. For a couple runs the GFS went with most other models but it lacking correct data...after it was put in... it was the 1st to go back with the Euro. Also always go by short term models (within 36hrs)..this will have the best descrpitions of the pressures around a system to determine it's current movement. If models agree... go out to 72hrs and up to 5 days if they still agree but note models will change and errors up to 5 days can be 250miles or more. With JQ, the 36hr forecast showed a SW movement..thus the ridge was slightly stronger than forecasted so it went further south by 1.5 dg...but the overall pattern showed a trough digging off the east coast with a ridge near PR thus pulling anything in the Bahamas NE by Friday night.
The forecast was very simple for this storm. Only tricky part was how far into the Bahamas it would get when it went SW.
I wonder what the water looks like offshore VA/MD because Joaquin's swell coming in from the South and the NE surface flow causing waves pushing waves SW, must be crazy, would not want to navigate through that.
Quoting 1680. FunnelVortex:



Another monkey wrench?
Quoting 1688. southfla:

This was mentioned in today's 5am NHC Joaquin discussion:

The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest, or
315/03, with the hurricane now gaining a bit of latitude based on
recent center fixes. The ridge north of Joaquin will weaken in the
next 12 to 24 hours as a mid/upper-level low moves in from the east,
and the hurricane should begin to move more quickly northward today
and then accelerate northeastward tonight and Saturday.






Ok, that makes sense. I figured that there had to be some feature that halted the ridge's progress west.
1712. IDTH
Quoting 1690. fmbill:



Need a kicker? I think the Steelers are looking to off-load one.

.......no comment.
Quoting 1706. Neapolitan:

No. The Bahamas percentage of people living below the poverty line as of 2004 was 9.3%. That's lower than that found in Canada (9.4), the UK (14), the US (15.1), Germany (15.5), and many dozens of others. By GDP per capita, the Bahamas are ranked between 47th and 48th in the world, ahead of places like Russia, Chile, China, and Argentina. So, no; the Bahamas are *NOT* "a poor nation".


Well I might have to disagree there. Some islands are so poor they use shipping crates for fences and throw tire on their roofs to keep them from blowing off when a storm comes.
So it moving N now still not NE.........
1715. ncstorm
1716. wpb
pictures and videos from se bahamas with 48 hours of huuricane winds rain and seas will be ugly.seems the warning they recieved gave them short notice to prepare or evacuate.
10:36 AM EDT - Dropsonde in the southeast eyewall of #Joaquin measured a 117 knot (135 mph) surface wind.

One would have thunk all the lingering would have caused enough upwelling to slow this beast down more. Those warm waters must have really went deep.
Quoting 1716. wpb:

pictures and videos from se bahamas with 48 hours of huuricane winds rain and seas will be ugly.seems the warning they recieved gave them short notice to prepare or evacuate.


That's my point especially in areas that are relatively poor. For some to come on here and act as if there are islands aren't in low poverty areas is crazy. Sitting in Nassau next to Atlantis while areas SE of you are very poor in some cases and say they r fine & they are equip. Come on! I was there i can attest first hand the situation could be dire in these hardest hit areas.
What is going to weaken the dry air that is approaching from the west and north? Looks as if this were to continue moving west it could steer the storm more north or totally demolish it? Be nice I am just a rookie!
Quoting 1626. washingtonian115:

I was ban for defending the NHC this week...What's happening now MODS?



And I just got banned for some reason I don't know why.

Oh well.

JQ still has a visible eye



Quoting 1719. joseph1010:

What is going to weaken the dry air that is approaching from the west and north? Looks as if this were to continue moving west it could steer the storm more north or totally demolish it? Be nice I am just a rookie!


One of two things will happen. The air will continue to build in a WSW fashion and push Joaquin in a sharp NE or ENE direction, or Joaquin will continue to move more N than NE as the moisture from it is pulled into the trough.
Quoting 1704. MahFL:

This went into flood :


There is a worrying trend in VA where each high tide is higher than the last, despite that fact every other high tide should be higher, and trending down, astronomically, its already in moderate stage a VA beach and lower end of Delmarva
1723. barbamz
Quoting 1714. SFLWeatherman:

So it moving N now still not NE.........



I think he will make the turn, but later than the models show. The models are not perfect.
Flooding Long Island, Bahamas

Link
Quoting 1720. FunnelVortex:



And I just got banned for some reason I don't know why.

Oh well.

JQ still has a visible eye






So did I... It said I was off topic.

Back on topic: The weather here in Raleigh/Durham is rainy, but not as bad as expected. It looks like eastern NC on the coast is getting hammered.
Quoting 1725. unknowncomic:

Flooding Long Island, Bahamas

Link


Hope they have flood insurance.
Quoting 1723. barbamz:




Not that I want to see destruction, but I can guess there will be some well documented storm surge footage coming out of the Bahamas in the near future.

Quoting 1727. FunnelVortex:



Hope they have flood insurance.
Not sure if that is available.
Quoting 1725. unknowncomic:

Flooding Long Island, Bahamas

Link


Looks like storm surge video. That was likely before Joaquin's eyewall hit yesterday.
Quoting 1708. kilgores97:

Is the upper low barreling in to the NE of Joaquin going to have any impact such as keeping it on a more N course instead of NE?



WV sure implies that, but as stated before...It's next to impossible to believe that all the models and experts would miss this.
Quoting 1729. unknowncomic:

Not sure if that is available.


They have to have something that covers that. They live in area prone to these storms.
Comment #1692 definitely shows NE movement with the system.
Possible trough pulls storm more north, begins to open up the wind field and the moisture gets entrained into the trough?

Quoting 1721. anthmiranda:



One of two things will happen. The air will continue to build in a WSW fashion and push Joaquin in a sharp NE or ENE direction, or Joaquin will continue to move more N than NE as the moisture from it is pulled into the trough.
Worth posting the updated track; Bermuda could end up on the dirty side of the NE quad if the storm tracks on the Eastern edge but at least it would be weakening at that point. Boy, a continued major in the short-term....;

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Quoting 1728. Sfloridacat5:



Not that I want to see destruction, but I can guess there will be some well documented storm surge footage coming out of the Bahamas in the near future.




Looks like seawater. You can tell by the salinity of it with its brown murky water. There are some marshes around that island.
Quoting 1713. StormTrackerScott:



Well I might have to disagree there. Some islands are so poor they use shipping crates for fences and throw tire on their roofs to keep them from blowing off when a storm comes.
I can show you the same in any trailer park or urban area in the US. That doesn't mean we're "a poor nation", does it?

The Bahamas will be fine. Lots of lost roofs, no doubt, along with widespread power outages, and some ocean-facing homes severely damaged if not destroyed by wind and surge. But the islands and their inhabitants will remain, on the whole, unscathed.
Quoting 1732. FunnelVortex:



They have to have something that covers that. They live in area prone to these storms.
It may be too expensive for most also.
Quoting 1725. unknowncomic:

Flooding Long Island, Bahamas

Link


That's not good. Is that ocean water or from rain?
Notwithstanding the elongated look, that core is very strong and another band wrapping around as the storm moves further into the Central Bahamas: a terrible situation unfolding for them.

Quoting 1734. kilgores97:

Possible trough pulls storm more north, begins to open up the wind field and the moisture gets entrained into the trough?




Plausible. Still yet TBD.
NHC must be more confident in track, they cancelled planned upper air Recon:

A. G-IV FLIGHTS WITH SCHEDULED DEPARTURES OF 02/1730Z
AND 03/0530Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1200Z.


Gonzo may be heading to Hawaii for upper air missions.
Quoting 1737. Neapolitan:

I can show you the same in any trailer park or urban area in the US. That doesn't mean we're "a poor nation", does it?

The Bahamas will be fine. Lots of lost roofs, no doubt, along with widespread power outages, and some ocean-facing homes severely damaged if not destroyed by wind and surge. But the islands and their inhabitants will remain, on the whole, unscathed.


It seems many bloggers are underestimating the Bahamas and acting like this storm will wipe them all clean off the map or something.
So what is going to kick this out to sea? It seams the High is blocking it on the right and it would go North around the High before going out to sea which would take it into the East coast in the direction of how the storms on the East coast are rotating around the ULL! Of course I'm not a meteorologist so I'm probably way off base.



Quoting 1736. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like seawater. You can tell by the salinity of it with its brown murky water. There are some marshes around that island.


Yes, but I'm talking about the actual storm surge (rapid rise in water height) as it first moved into the area. There should be some pretty remarkable storm surge footage in isolated locations.
I'm sure the water in that video is from sea water left over from the surge.
Quoting 1718. StormTrackerScott:



That's my point especially in areas that are relatively poor. For some to come on here and act as if there are islands aren't in low poverty areas is crazy. Sitting in Nassau next to Atlantis while areas SE of you are very poor in some cases and say they r fine & they are equip. Come on! I was there i can attest first hand the situation could be dire in these hardest hit areas.


Scott, it was your comment stating that the Bahamas is a poor nation when in fact they are not that poor. Nea posted stats showing that. Yes, I am quite sure that there are very poor places in the Bahamas and their infrastructure will be severely compromised. No different if a cat4 hit us in Pinellas County. It would be devastating to the beaches and the wind damage would be catastrophic to the mobile homes or other poorly built structures.
1747. MahFL
Quoting 1737. Neapolitan:

I can show you the same in any trailer park or urban area in the US. That doesn't mean we're "a poor nation", does it?

The Bahamas will be fine. Lots of lost roofs, no doubt, along with widespread power outages, and some ocean-facing homes severely damaged if not destroyed by wind and surge. But the islands and their inhabitants will remain, on the whole, unscathed.


The power company actually turned the power off, presumably to prevent fires from sparking cables.
Quoting 1747. MahFL:



The power company actually turned the power off, presumably to prevent fires from sparking cables.


See, the Bahamas know what they are doing
Starting to look like the front is becoming an outer feeder band...
Quoting 1751. forecaster1:

Starting to look like the front is becoming an outer feeder band...


lolwut?
Like many Caribbean nations, the locals have been dealing with hurricanes for centuries and the Bahamas has a pretty good track record in terms of getting through storms and recovery efforts. Also know that the Bahamas has lots of high end developments and marinas and that includes ex-pats and others who invest in the Island and with infrastructure. And a little know fact ( I have a few Bahamian friends); the Chinese are also involved with some investments and relations with the Bahamas; the Chinese built them a huge Soccer Stadium there within the last 2 years. The biggest issue with any storm over an Island is storm surge and wind damage with this major and the best that we can hope for is that there is no loss of life; they should be able to recover and aid will be available from several sources to help them.
1754. ncstorm
Quoting 1751. forecaster1:

Starting to look like the front is becoming an outer feeder band...


NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 57s58 seconds ago North Carolina, USA

Satellite/radar loop shows heavy rain stream extends almost down to #Joaquin, flood threat will shift inland tonight http://goo.gl/YJkmg3

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC

Heavy rain and flooding over the Cape Fear region this morning is part of a stream of moisture extending down the Gulf Stream to the periphery of Hurricane Joaquin. This heavy rain should shift inland into South Carolina tonight and Saturday, then return to the coast and into southeastern North Carolina Sunday and Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential of 8 to 12 inches of rain in parts of the eastern Carolinas over the next few days.
lol ;0
Quoting 1752. FunnelVortex:



lolwut?
Quoting 1744. 69Viking:

So what is going to kick this out to sea? It seams the High is blocking it on the right and it would go North around the High before going out to sea which would take it into the East coast in the direction of how the storms on the East coast are rotating around the ULL! Of course I'm not a meteorologist so I'm probably way off base.






Totally agreed. Could someone explain to me? It's still a learning process for me..
Quoting 1713. StormTrackerScott:



Well I might have to disagree there. Some islands are so poor they use shipping crates for fences and throw tire on their roofs to keep them from blowing off when a storm comes.


When you go to the Bahamas you might want to stay in a nice resort. There are plenty of them.
Quoting 1755. forecaster1:

lol ;0


What you said makes no sense. How can a front become a feeder band?
get your kayaks ready...
Quoting 1754. ncstorm:



NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 57s58 seconds ago North Carolina, USA

Satellite/radar loop shows heavy rain stream extends almost down to #Joaquin, flood threat will shift inland tonight http://goo.gl/YJkmg3

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC

Heavy rain and flooding over the Cape Fear region this morning is part of a stream of moisture extending down the Gulf Stream to the periphery of Hurricane Joaquin. This heavy rain should shift inland into South Carolina tonight and Saturday, then return to the coast and into southeastern North Carolina Sunday and Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential of 8 to 12 inches of rain in parts of the eastern Carolinas over the next few days.
read 1754
Quoting 1758. FunnelVortex:



What you said makes no sense. How can a front become a feeder band?
Quoting 1756. Articuno:



Totally agreed. Could someone explain to me? It's still a learning process for me..


Maybe the storm itself will weaken the ridge as it turns NE towards it?!?
Moving Slight west of due North? NNW? Opinion?
1763. IDTH
Quoting 1756. Articuno:



Totally agreed. Could someone explain to me? It's still a learning process for me..

I had a hard time understanding it as well. Im pretty sure its a weakening ridge that may be why but I'm not so sure.
Are we really arguing over how rich the Bahamas are? The Bahamas aren't poor. Sure there are islands that aren't well off but the nation as a whole is well developed and has great building codes
Quoting 1760. forecaster1:

read 1754


That's not a feeder band. It's moisture being sucked up the front.
Quoting 1761. joseph1010:



Maybe the storm itself will weaken the ridge as it turns NE towards it?!?


A ULL center along the southern periphery of the ridge to Joaquin's east is forecast to pull west later today and break down the western edge of the ridge, clearing the way for Joaquin.
Quoting 1762. matrcrane:

Moving Slight west of due North? NNW? Opinion?



It looks due north.
The trof and the steering currents are starting to pull the storm out of the Bahamas; and not soon enough. The hope is that the worst of the storm will not directly impact Grand Bahama Island too much on the way out:


Quoting 1767. FunnelVortex:



It looks due north.
looks stationary
And it looks like the EWRC is almost finished and that the new eye is tying to pop out:

Quoting 1765. FunnelVortex:



That's not a feeder band. It's moisture being sucked up the front.


More like the ULL over the SE is pulling the moisture from Joaquin and sending it up into the front!
key part of my statement >> "looks like"
Quoting 1765. FunnelVortex:



That's not a feeder band. It's moisture being sucked up the front.
The Pressure here in Miami got down to 29.56 inches in the last couple of hours. It has not been that low since Hurricane Wilma struck here back in 2005.
Quoting 1754. ncstorm:



NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 57s58 seconds ago North Carolina, USA

Satellite/radar loop shows heavy rain stream extends almost down to #Joaquin, flood threat will shift inland tonight http://goo.gl/YJkmg3

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC

Heavy rain and flooding over the Cape Fear region this morning is part of a stream of moisture extending down the Gulf Stream to the periphery of Hurricane Joaquin. This heavy rain should shift inland into South Carolina tonight and Saturday, then return to the coast and into southeastern North Carolina Sunday and Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the potential of 8 to 12 inches of rain in parts of the eastern Carolinas over the next few days.


I wonder if it will come into my area. So far we haven't had as much rain as I had expected.
Quoting 1762. matrcrane:

Moving Slight west of due North? NNW? Opinion?



Very slow NW movement to me
1776. nash36
Updated package from Charleston NWS:

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD AND
HISTORICAL RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT HIGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS AHEAD OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE AXIS LOOKS
TO RUN FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS INTO THE
LOWCOUNTRY...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL FORECAST SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A RELATIVE BULLS-EYE
EXTENDING FROM WALTERBORO AND MONCKS CORNER INTO THE CHARLESTON
METRO AREA.
1777. barbamz
Quoting 1775. Articuno:



Very slow NW movement to me

You're right. New center fix from recon towards the NW coming soon.
Quoting 1762. matrcrane:

Moving Slight west of due North? NNW? Opinion?



Based on the visible, I'd say that's plainly obvious. Then, after reading some other bloggers comments (North, stationary, etc), I suppose it's not plainly obvious!

Re #1709: the blogger above who commented this was an "easy" storm to forecast, I'd say his/her rose colored glasses produce clear 20/20 hindsight vision.
1779. ncstorm
Quoting 1774. DurhamWeatherLover:



I wonder if it will come into my area. So far we haven't had as much rain as I had expected.


My post of 1715 paints a scenario that shows that the heavier band will shift inland in a circular motion to the tri area, NC mountains, SC and than back to SE NC..

I'm kinda of surprise to see them add Monday for NC for heavy rain..I was under the impression the threat was ending Sunday..
Quoting 1764. czechoslovakia:

Are we really arguing over how rich the Bahamas are? The Bahamas aren't poor. Sure there are islands that aren't well off but the nation as a whole is well developed and has great building codes


I've lived there for 17 years. In the out island, no less. My home is Clarence Town, Long Island. You are just dead wrong.
Quoting 1773. HurriHistory:

The Pressure here in Miami got down to 29.56 inches in the last couple of hours. It has not been that low since Hurricane Wilma struck here back in 2005.


Where I live I see low pressures like that and sub 1000 pressures a lot during winter.
Quoting 1768. weathermanwannabe:

The trof and the steering currents are starting to pull the storm out of the Bahamas; and not soon enough. The hope is that the worst of the storm will not directly impact Grand Bahama Island too much on the way out:





For those asking: storms tend to travel around the periphery of the ridge. So look at the border between black and orange on this map - that is pretty much the projected path of Joaquin.

The trough to the east is for now keeping Joaquin from going west. If (big if) it goes negatively tilted in a way that captures Joaquin, it could get moved into the US mid-Atlantic coast. But most models and forecasters are saying that won't happen. I'd say it's possible but unlikely.

A lot can change over time so if you live from NC north you can't let your guard down yet...especially not in Newfoundland.
1783. MahFL
Did JQ move NW ?
1784. ncstorm
Quoting 1776. nash36:

Updated package from Charleston NWS:

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD AND
HISTORICAL RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT HIGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS AHEAD OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE AXIS LOOKS
TO RUN FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS INTO THE
LOWCOUNTRY...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL FORECAST SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A RELATIVE BULLS-EYE
EXTENDING FROM WALTERBORO AND MONCKS CORNER INTO THE CHARLESTON
METRO AREA.


I don't know but if they know the rain amounts are setting on historical precedence shouldn't they be talking about evacuating people in Charleston..especially the extreme flood prone areas?
Quoting 1782. rwdobson:



For those asking: storms tend to travel around the periphery of the ridge. So look at the border between black and orange on this map - that is pretty much the projected path of Joaquin.

The trough to the east is for now keeping Joaquin from going west. If (big if) it goes negatively tilted in a way that captures Joaquin, it could get moved into the US mid-Atlantic coast. But most models and forecasters are saying that won't happen. I'd say it's possible but unlikely.

A lot can change over time so if you live from NC north you can't let your guard down yet...especially not in Newfoundland.


That path is moving west :P
It looks as if the Bahamas is in the middle of a squeeze play of TUG OF WAR. The High Pressure Ridge to the North and East of it looks to be BUILDING and pushing West-Southwest and the Trough with the Associated Upper Level Low seems to be DIGGING South and East. What ever one is strongest WINS!! Poor Bahamas they are in the middle of # Synoptic Scale Systems
To go where the boundary is would require a quicker northward pace then NE. That boundary is moving ever closer westward.

Quoting 1782. rwdobson:



For those asking: storms tend to travel around the periphery of the ridge. So look at the border between black and orange on this map - that is pretty much the projected path of Joaquin.

The trough to the east is for now keeping Joaquin from going west. If (big if) it goes negatively tilted in a way that captures Joaquin, it could get moved into the US mid-Atlantic coast. But most models and forecasters are saying that won't happen. I'd say it's possible but unlikely.

A lot can change over time so if you live from NC north you can't let your guard down yet...especially not in Newfoundland.
Quoting 1775. Articuno:



Very slow NW movement to me


--with some wobbles north & east
Quoting 1773. HurriHistory:

The Pressure here in Miami got down to 29.56 inches in the last couple of hours. It has not been that low since Hurricane Wilma struck here back in 2005.


I got down to 29.57 inches over here S.E. of Fort Myers this morning.
If this storm was more traditional looking (more outward spiral banding) there would be a lot more dry air intrusion entering the storm right now. That has been an interesting feature (or non-feature) with this particular storm; it has had a very compact and concentrated core area but is a major hurricane without the traditional large bands.  That has helped fight off dry air issues:


Quoting 1785. Articuno:



That path is moving west :P


But still has a major curve out to sea in it. Also, I think Joaquin will be eroding the western edge of the high somewhat...or at the very least preventing it from moving much further west.
Quoting 1780. islandmanagers:



I've lived there for 17 years. In the out island, no less. My home is Clarence Town, Long Island. You are just dead wrong.


Maybe I am but compared to my island, Jamaica, it's better off

Quoting 1776. nash36:

Updated package from Charleston NWS:

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD AND
HISTORICAL RAINFALL EVENT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT HIGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS AHEAD OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE AXIS LOOKS
TO RUN FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS INTO THE
LOWCOUNTRY...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. THE LATEST STORM
TOTAL FORECAST SHOWS IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A RELATIVE BULLS-EYE
EXTENDING FROM WALTERBORO AND MONCKS CORNER INTO THE CHARLESTON
METRO AREA.
Wow... well that's certainly not the good news many were hoping for... out of curiosity, where do you find these? I've been looking for updates, but apparently not in the right places.
1794. nash36
Quoting 1784. ncstorm:



I don't know but if they know the rain amounts are setting on historical precedence shouldn't they be talking about evacuating people in Charleston..especially the extreme flood prone areas?


From what I know at this juncture, they will start closing roads, so no one can get into downtown Charleston. Problem is, no one can get out either. I'm actually rather surprised that neither Gov. Haley, nor Mayor Joe Riley have been much more forceful with the evacuation message.
Just Sayin here - If this trough lifts out to the North and East the SE U.S. is in Play here. I am not pinpointing 1 area, because that's too difficult here seeing the way the computer model guidance have handled things recently. But I don't trust OTS just yet. Yogi Berra said "it aint over til its over"
1796. nash36
Quoting 1793. carolinabelle:


Wow... well that's certainly not the good news many were hoping for... out of curiosity, where do you find these? I've been looking for updates, but apparently not in the right places.



National Weather Service - Charleston page
Quoting 1794. nash36:



From what I know at this juncture, they will start closing roads, so no one can get into downtown Charleston. Problem is, no one can get out either. I'm actually rather surprised that neither Gov. Haley, nor Mayor Joe Riley have been much more forceful with the evacuation message.


Was everyone able to get out of downtown last night? Have a niece who teaches at CoC but lives in Summerville and was wondering what her situation was like.
Quoting 1790. weathermanwannabe:

If this storm was more traditional looking (more outward spiral banding) there would be a lot more dry air intrusion entering the storm right now. That has been an interesting feature (or non-feature) with this particular storm; it has had a very compact and concentrated core area but is a major hurricane without the traditional large bands.  That has helped fight off dry air issues:





Yes. It's a small storm. But a very powerful one as well.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 8m8 minutes ago
BREAKING: Coast Guard is searching for a 735' container ship caught in #Hurricane #Joaquin w/ 33 crew members aboard.
1800. MahFL
The El Faro cargo ship is missing in the Bahamas.
1801. ncstorm
Quoting 1794. nash36:



From what I know at this juncture, they will start closing roads, so no one can get into downtown Charleston. Problem is, no one can get out either. I'm actually rather surprised that neither Gov. Haley, nor Mayor Joe Riley have been much more forceful with the evacuation message.


Well I hope they go ahead and do it and not wait..better to be safe than sorry..
@ncstorm

1803. MahFL
Quoting 1798. FunnelVortex:



Yes. It's a small storm. But a very powerful one as well.


The NHC described it as a large hurricane, it's not small.
Quoting 1713. StormTrackerScott:



Well I might have to disagree there. Some islands are so poor they use shipping crates for fences and throw tire on their roofs to keep them from blowing off when a storm comes.
Name a specific island. Please.

BTW, using shipping crates for fences is not a sign of poverty; it's recycling.
1805. nash36
Quoting 1797. rwdobson:



Was everyone able to get out of downtown last night? Have a niece who teaches at CoC but lives in Summerville and was wondering what her situation was like.


I live in Summerville as well.

As far as I know, late last night, all of the roads did finally open back up. There was waist-high water over near Medical University.
1806. 7544
Quoting 1773. HurriHistory:

The Pressure here in Miami got down to 29.56 inches in the last couple of hours. It has not been that low since Hurricane Wilma struck here back in 2005.


i keep seeing post on this what does than mean the strom is getting closer? even tho is not going there tia
After Joaquin, what potential other systems do we have to watch for? I saw on a graphic that the mjo is going to be moving back into the Atlantic basin. Surprised as to how eerily quiet it has been in the western Caribbean since 2013 with nothing forming down there
And finally; here is the current rain in the NE to which some of the moisture feed from the storm will add to; the US is very lucky that this storm is currently forecast to stay off-shore but we are still looking at major flooding up the US coast:



Northeast sector loop
Quoting 1805. nash36:



I live in Summerville as well.

As far as I know, late last night, all of the roads did finally open back up. There was waist-high water over near Medical University.


Do you know if CoC is closed today?
Quoting 1798. FunnelVortex:



Yes. It's a small storm. But a very powerful one as well.

Not a small storm, covers about the size of Maine I believe.
Again, if you want to hear live reports from people and officials in The Bahamas, please go to:

http://original.livestream.com/znsbahamas
And the rain feeding into the Carolinas:

Southeast sector loop
Quoting 1793. carolinabelle:


Wow... well that's certainly not the good news many were hoping for... out of curiosity, where do you find these? I've been looking for updates, but apparently not in the right places.



www.weather.gov

As far as government websites go, this one's pretty good. ;)
Quoting 1792. czechoslovakia:



Maybe I am but compared to my island, Jamaica, it's better off


I've been to Jamaica. How many islands in the Bahamas have you visited? You're wrong again. And it's this attitude that keeps aid from getting to the people that need it, and there will be plenty of them after this storm
Quoting 1804. BahaHurican:

Name a specific island. Please.

BTW, using shipping crates for fences is not a sign of poverty; it's recycling.


Are you on Grand Bahama and what is the status there in terms of the storm..............Thanks in advance. I know you must be in the middle of preparations yourself.
1817. barbamz
Quoting 1813. Accu35blog:

Ok now that this hurricane is going OTS, let's talk about fall/winter discussion. I'm ready for snow. It's feels great outside. I don't want to hear "this is a tropical discussion," I don't buy that bull crap because folks on here talk about winter storms all year winter long


OK... naming winter storms is silly. (imo)
Quoting 1806. 7544:



i keep seeing post on this what does than mean the strom is getting closer? even tho is not going there tia


The hurricane has reached its closest approach to South Florida. That's why the pressures are currently so low across S. Florida. Pressure will start rising as the system starts to move away from the area.
Quoting 1810. Articuno:


Not a small storm, covers about the size of Maine I believe.


Not really. It's pretty small. A large storm would have feeder bands extending far from the center and a larger wind field. Think storms like Isaac, Mitch, Irene, and Katrina.
Quoting 1803. MahFL:



The NHC described it as a large hurricane, it's not small.


Size is very important when looking at extratropical transition. A small storm will not transition into
a midlatitude cyclone even if very intense. The length scale is too small to be baroclinically unstable and the energy will be absorbed into the basic state. A large storm (more than 600km diameter) will sometimes (actually often) be baroclinically unstable also and when it hits a temperature gradient (baroclinic zone, thickness ribbon, whatever..) it will induce a wave on that gradient which will amplify as any other shortwave would and it can amplify into a large powerful midlatitude cyclone. Something (with a lot of precedents) for Europe to watch out for
1822. SC29483
Quoting 1797. rwdobson:



Was everyone able to get out of downtown last night? Have a niece who teaches at CoC but lives in Summerville and was wondering what her situation was like.

C of C has cancelled classes. Summerville is about 20 miles inland from the Holy City. Still will get the rain and flooding , but do not have to contend with roads that are basically just filled in marsh. (The marsh will always win in these cases). Parts of Summerville are close to swampy area - the Edisto River floods fairly often. I live in Summerville. Not seeing much more than a drizzle at the moment. It is a bit creepy knowing that in another 12 hours it will be a different story. Hard to imagine twice the rain we had the other day. This feels like the quiet before the storm. Feeling resigned to it. My son works for AT&T, and they are out there. He is the best driver I know, so that helps me not worry as much as I would otherwise. Schools, county and state offices are closed.
1825. 7544
looks like another west wobble at this hour half over 75 west will it make it 76


wow look how big this hurricane is getting in size i am happy its going out to sea
Exactly what we are feeling here in South Florida.

Link

1828. 7544
Quoting 1819. Sfloridacat5:



The hurricane has reached its closest approach to South Florida. That's why the pressures are currently so low across S. Florida. Pressure will start rising as the system starts to move away from the area.


thanks alot now its stop moving north hh shows nw at this hour so that would explain why its low presuure
Quoting 1820. FunnelVortex:



Not really. It's pretty small. A large storm would have feeder bands extending far from the center and a larger wind field. Think storms like Isaac, Mitch, Irene, and Katrina.


Still above average.

Irene was an abnormally huge hurricane, as well as Katrina. idk about Isaac or Mitch
Quoting 1826. hurricanes2018:



wow look how big this hurricane is getting in size i am happy its going out to sea


"Likely to miss the US East Coast."
Reading the blog today it sometimes gets hard to tell that there is a cat 3 or 4 in the Bahamas off of the US coast. This is a weather blog, yes?
Quoting 1830. LongIslandBeaches:



"Likely to miss the US East Coast."


I mean, it is technically on its way out to sea. But certainly is still impacting the Bahamas, and will continue to do so.
Quoting 1655. georgevandenberghe:



Wife is sick and I turned on heat this morning. We did have a period this cold in early June but year.. it's been a consistently hot summer and early autumn. This feels good by contrast!

Really worried about my friends on Long Island Bahamas even though their homes are built elevated on solid coral rock. Some of their infrastucture (airport.. inundated in past events) is built on low flat land.

One of the problems for North Long Island after the storm has passed is going to be how long the Stella Maris airport will be underwater. It's built basically on the boggy land on the Exuma Sound side of the island. The airport and the roads immediately adjacent, including the main "Queen's Highway" which runs along the shore just west of the airport, are likely already inundated first by storm surge as Joaquin passes and then by runoff from the Stella Maris hills.
Quoting 1826. hurricanes2018:



wow look how big this hurricane is getting in size i am happy its going out to sea


You're looking at the cirrus overcast. The storm itself is rather small and compact as I explained.
Quoting 1808. weathermanwannabe:

And finally; here is the current rain in the NE to which some of the moisture feed from the storm will add to; the US is very lucky that this storm is currently forecast to stay off-shore but we are still looking at major flooding up the US coast:



Northeast sector loop
Is it my poor eye sight, or is the upper low over the Southeast retrograding to the W/ SW, due to an building high to the East.


do you see the high moving west here
1837. MahFL
Looks like the center is west of 75 now.

1838. Sangria
Quoting 1782. rwdobson:



For those asking: storms tend to travel around the periphery of the ridge. So look at the border between black and orange on this map - that is pretty much the projected path of Joaquin.

The trough to the east is for now keeping Joaquin from going west. If (big if) it goes negatively tilted in a way that captures Joaquin, it could get moved into the US mid-Atlantic coast. But most models and forecasters are saying that won't happen. I'd say it's possible but unlikely.

A lot can change over time so if you live from NC north you can't let your guard down yet...especially not in Newfoundland.


I would make the observation that the swath of area between the southern/western edge of the high pressure and the US coast is becoming narrower with each hour.

0845 UTC



1545 UTC
Quoting 1832. tornadodude:



I mean, it is technically on its way out to sea. But certainly is still impacting the Bahamas, and will continue to do so.


Sure, although I think it's important to recognize that hurricanes2018, who if I remember correctly is in Connecticut, is speaking with a regional bias. If we're going to celebrate the clarification of Joaquin's future path, it should be done in reverence to his more global impact. Bahamians probably aren't quite so flippant.
I remember in 2009 or 2010 a similiar fire hose set up over eastern NC and we got something like 12-14"....the flooding was crazy...had to hike up my pants and take off my shoes to get to my truck in the parking lot.
IMO If JQ continues moving NW..... Game Changer!!! Mean the High pressure is too strong and will not erode or weaken as soon as once thought and may get caught in the moisture flow of the Trough!

The next few Images may be Crucial!!!
My thoughts and prayers to all those who are being affected by Hurricane Joaquin. #PrayForBahamas
Pressure going down here in Central Fl. Dropped from 1003mb to 999mb in about 15 minutes. Would that be from Joaquin or the front/trough?
1844. barbamz

NASA Astronaut Scott Kelly captured this photo on Oct. 2, 2015, from the International Space Station and wrote on Twitter, "Early morning shot of Hurricane #‎Joaquin‬ from @space_station before reaching ‪#‎Bahamas‬. Hope all is safe. #‎YearInSpace‬."
Image Credit: NASA
1845. MahFL
Quoting 1832. tornadodude:



I mean, it is technically on its way out to sea. But certainly is still impacting the Bahamas, and will continue to do so.


It's not out to sea, it's in the Bahamas.
Quoting 1835. NativeSun:

Is it my poor eye sight, or is the upper low over the Southeast retrograding to the W/ SW, due to an building high to the East.


That question is above my pay grade; still waiting on Dr. Masters take and the NHC updates later today......... :)
It should be noted that the Euro shifted a little more west



its moving north now!
There can be historical flooding this weekend in the Carolina's and other states. The situation that is setting up for inland areas of South Carolina are extreme. Quoting Jeff Masters and Bob Henson Blog:

Another exceptional part of the story from this weekend into Monday will be the mammoth rainfall amounts expected to fall over parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, particularly South Carolina. These areas are not unfamiliar with torrential rain, especially from landfalling tropical cyclones, but the amounts this weekend will be amazing even by southeastern standards—and this is assuming Joaquin does not make landfall. Strong and extremely moist flow pushing from the Atlantic against the Appalachians may boost rainfall totals to record or near-record totals from the mountains and foothills of northeast Georgia to western Virginia. The Greenville/Spartanburg NWS office is already warning that “all the ingredients are in place for a rainfall event of historic proportions across the area.”

The impacts of this storm are not over for the US. Joaquin may not directly impact the US but his indirect impact could be catastrophic in terms of flooding. Hurricane Camille produced just as many death in Virginia from epic flooding as the people who died on landfall.
Quoting 1847. FunnelVortex:

It should be noted that the Euro shifted a little more west


i saw that to..
Quoting 1845. MahFL:



It's not out to sea, it's in the Bahamas.



Yeah it definitely is in the Bahamas, but it also is on its way out to sea. The trough on the east coast is in the US, but is on its way out to sea.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1807. lobdelse81:

After Joaquin, what potential other systems do we have to watch for? I saw on a graphic that the mjo is going to be moving back into the Atlantic basin. Surprised as to how eerily quiet it has been in the western Caribbean since 2013 with nothing forming down there
yep!
Still not sure how the WPC is forecasting the heaviest rain, nearly 20 inches of rain over interior SC. The origin of the moisture is over the ocean, that places coastal areas as a lifting boundary, such that coastal and near coastal areas receive the most rain as rain weakens moving inland. Seems to me coastal and near coastal areas will get the vast majority.
Quoting 1794. nash36:



From what I know at this juncture, they will start closing roads, so no one can get into downtown Charleston. Problem is, no one can get out either. I'm actually rather surprised that neither Gov. Haley, nor Mayor Joe Riley have been much more forceful with the evacuation message.
nash, from what I have seen in past experiences... The city politicians are in a damn if I do and damn if I don't situation...I sure would hate to be calling the shots... "AND" if nothing happens the poor guy or gal will be ridiculed forever... I am not a fan of politics, but in this case "Good luck...
Quoting 1664. StormTrackerScott:



Bottomline Baha like it or not and you know this . I can tell you that there are islands that are very poor as in poor building structures. The area Joaquin came in is not that equip to deal with something like this. That is my point take it as you wish. Nassau is built great for something like this but other islands are not. Geesh!
Answer my question. Have you personally been to these islands? If so, which ones? If not, what is your source of information?

I am writing what I know about my own relatives and friends in places in the South East and Central Bahamas. These "poor" people with their falling down houses have survived the same hurricanes, at worse intensities, that have wiped out areas along the US coast over the years. I'm talking 100 plus years.

I am not denying that warnings were late. In fact I was the one to draw attention to it on the blog on Wednesday. I am not saying there are no difficulties, hardships or challenges being encountered by people in the SE and Central Islands. I am not saying there won't be flooding, lost roofs, damaged infrastructure. That is all part and parcel of the hurricane experience. It's what happens when a cat 4 sits overhead for 24 + hours.

What I AM saying is that your implication that people here COLLECTIVELY have no resources to cope with these circumstances are at best misguided and at worst patently false. You are attempting to paint a picture of the SE Bahamas as being incapable of coping, when we just did just that less than five years ago when Irene hit this part of the country. We may end up calling on our fellow CARICOM nations for assistance in getting things back online, but we will survive.
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWED THE HIGH BUILDING SO FAR EAST AS IS ON WV? RIGHT?AGAIN JQNIS GOING NW?
You guys should be watching the broadcasts, at the top of the hour, at http://original.livestream.com/znsbahamas. I just saw some dramatic imagery from Cat Island. Seas are pretty high there already ....
Looks like Bermuda could be in trouble. My latest models are suggesting a Cat 6 direct landfall on Sunday Evening at 11.23pm.