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Category 3 Joaquin Bears Down on Bahamas

By: Bob Henson 4:47 AM GMT on October 01, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin got down to business on Wednesday afternoon, vaulting from Category 1 to 3 status in a mere six hours. Joaquin’s top sustained winds zoomed from 85 mph in the 21Z (5:00 pm EDT) advisory from the National Hurricane Center to 115 mph in the 11:00 pm EDT advisory. Since the top winds were only 70 mph on Tuesday night, Joaquin more than qualifies for rapid intensification by the NHC’s definition: an increase in sustained winds of at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours.

Joaquin is now the second major hurricane of the Atlantic season, joining Hurricane Danny and beating the expectations of seasonal forecasters, as recently as early August, of just one major hurricane in the Atlantic this year (though Danny barely qualified as a major, with winds above that threshold for only a few hours). The current total of 10 named storms is also near the top end of seasonal predictions.


Figure 1. Latest satellite imagery of Hurricane Joaquin from the WU tracking page.

Joaquin still lacks a crisp, well-defined eye on infrared satellite imagery, but its showers and thunderstorms have continued to intensify and consolidate into a large and increasingly symmetric central core. Hurricane-force winds remain confined to a radius of 35 miles from the center of Joaquin, while gales extend out up to 140 miles. The most recent minimal central pressure was 951 millibars, a hefty drop of 37 millibars in roughly 18 hours. Very warm sea-surface temperatures of around 30°C and relatively deep ocean heat content will support even more strengthening over the next couple of days. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas, with a hurricane watch for Bimini and Andros Island and a tropical storm warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Andros Island. My Wednesday afternoon update with Jeff Masters has more detail on potential impacts to the Bahamas from this formidable hurricane.

Moderate northerly shear will relax significantly on Thursday into Friday, and it’s possible that Joaquin will have outflow jets helping to ventilate the storm on both its west and east flanks. Together with record-warm SSTs, these factors could help make Joaquin a dangerous Category 4 storm, in line with the latest NHC outlook, which produces peak sustained winds of 140 mph on Thursday night.


Figure 2. Upper-level winds above roughly 35,000 and 55,000 feet (blue flags) show an anticyclonic outflow signature developing over Hurricane Joaquin at 03Z Thursday, October 1 (11:00 pm EDT Wednesday). An outflow jet with wind speeds above 50 knots (58 mph) is funneling from Joaquin toward the southeast, helping to ventilate the storm. Image credit: SSEC/University of Wisconsin.

Some weakening is expected when strong upper-level southerlies begin to impinge on Joaquin’s circulation, especially over the weekend, but Joaquin is likely to remain a potentially damaging hurricane, with a gradually enlarging envelope of high wind, high seas, storm surge, and heavy rain.


Figure 3. Comparison of model projections for Joaquin from 12Z Wednesday. The ECMWF run stands in stark contrast to all other model runs, which are clustered far to the left. The official NHC forecast from Thursday morning (magenta line) splits the difference somewhat. Image credit: Stu Ostro, The Weather Channel.

Forecast update
As we discussed on Wednesday afternoon, most of the computer model runs from 12Z Wednesday pointed toward a landfall for Joaquin somewhere along the coast of North Carolina or southern Virginia. Only the operational ECMWF remained an outlier, taking Joaquin far to sea.

The 18Z suite of guidance did little to change this picture: no ECMWF runs are produced at 18Z, and the other models continued to insist on a U.S. landfall. Early guidance from 00Z Thursday (produced by injecting the most recent data on Joaquin into the 18Z Wednesday model runs) showed little track change, although the projected intensity at landfall is now considerably higher because of Joaquin’s current strength. The complete suite of runs from 00Z Thursday—and in particular the ECMWF run—may help clarify Joaquin’s future, unless of course the ECMWF sticks to its out-to-sea story. The 00Z GFS track was considerably to the right of previous runs, taking Joaquin toward New York and New England, so it appears the picture may remain far more complex than forecasters and residents would prefer.

Most of the dozens of GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs from 12Z Wednesday showed a U.S. landfall, despite the operational ECMWF’s contrariness. (Ensembles are produced by running a model many times, each with slightly different initial conditions to represent uncertainty in the atmosphere’s starting point.) Until we know more, the out-to-sea depiction of the highly skilled ECMWF model must be considered a possibility, as Jeff Masters noted in his WUTV segment on Wednesday evening. At the same time, U.S. coastal residents will need to be getting ready on Thursday for quick action, as it’s possible that a hurricane watch will be posted by NHC as soon as Thursday evening. As of 11:00 pm EDT Wednesday, the official NHC track brings Joaquin into the Delmarva region late Sunday into early Monday.

Jeff Masters and I will have our next update by midday Thursday. We've also launched a live blog on Hurricane Joaquin that will feature updates in between our blog posts.

Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Quoting 985. Drakoen:

935mb is impressive. 7mb lower than the 11am advisory.


IMpressive falls still..

He is well put together atm seems.
Quoting 976. Torito:

I think its definitely going NW now..


Almost stationary,no NW movement yet.
Quoting 894. kilgores97:

This may very well end up being a huge win for the Euro (like Sandy was), but lately it has actually been a very poor performer (especially for hurricanes and tropical storms) in the medium range (4-5 days). Last year it was statistically the 2nd worst model at predicting where a storm would be in 5 days. If it nails a storm, you hear how it is always the best.


Dr. Masters August 14 blog expounds on which models and system hardware were upgraded over the last year. These changes should be taken into account when making comparisons to the past and how far in the past as well.
1004. help4u
Very concerned NAM has changed course could mean changes on ECWMF run.
Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1...... - http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/us/hurricane-joaquin /

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes
1006. Torito
Pink in 3/4 quadrants now.

Been watching the movement. The eye has stayed right above 23N for the past hour or so. Could be trying to move north, but yet again, could just be a wobble. Need more time to now for sure.
Quoting 1001. Patrap:



IMpressive falls still..

He is well put together atm seems.


Quoting 1004. help4u:

Very concerned NAM has changed course could mean changes on ECWMF run.
are you saying NAM went back to the west again
Jersey government saw that model output from a few hours ago (r.e. inland cat 2 somewhere near Delaware/Jersey) and they are taking it very seriously. Chris Christy just gave a prepratory speech on television warning people to prepare, safe generator usage, some comments about political wrangling over the proposed dune preperations following Sandy...

Fortunately, Cat 2 landfall that far north might be a bit of an exaggeration by the model...I hope...The max potential intensity predictor does not support a Cat 2 that far north at the moment, unless it was moving very fast and just punched through that pocket of cooler water, but at the moment this storm does not look like it would be moving very fast, so it should weaken some when it gets that far north, which is good I guess for the storm surge and wind damage aspect, but bad for the inland rainfall once again.

This could be big if the western tracks pan out. Looking like a repeat somewhere between an Irene or a Sandy Scenario, although at the moment this circulation is nowhere near as large in area as those systems...but that could change.

I hope everyone in the region is more educated about the needs of evacuation and shelter this time rather than when Sandy hit, because a lot of loss of life and injury seems to have been associated with a lack of education on hurricane storm surge behavior, unfortunately.

I think people unfortunately treated it like a nor'easter or an upper level low, and they just really aren't comparable. Wave action model is calling for 40ft waves near Jersey on the storm's closest approach, and that's going to be traumatic for beaches and nearby businesses once again if it pans out.
At this rate (7 mb in 30 min) I would not be surprised to see a cat. 5 out of this storm. Not good for anyone as that is a whole new ball game. Noone has this forecasted (at the moment) if it should happen.
1013. MahFL
Can someone explain why the eye has not cleared out yet on ir and become nice and circular ?
1014. Patrap
Quoting 987. VAbeachhurricanes:

Time: 15:19:30Z
Coordinates: 23.100N 73.983W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,617 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 935.7 mb (27.63 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 36° at 11 kts (From the NE at 12.7 mph)
Air Temp: 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Dew Pt: 11.0°C (51.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 kts (17.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 kts* (25.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr* (0.16 in/hr*)


Oh my god. Are you sure this isn't an error?
1016. 1Zach1
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1......

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes

Flooding is a very real concern here in VA, direct hit or not. We have already had a significant amount of rain in the past 72 hours and are looking at 10+ inches more even with it out to sea.
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1......

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes



stop with the fish stuff this storm is not a fish storm has its all ready hiting land
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1......

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes


no not really.... I am in SC....we are expected to get a plethora of rain...no place for it to go...add in extra high tides...and surf...people need time to prepare...and the low areas will be impacted regardless of where landfall is..expecting Charleston to follow suit soon
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1......

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes


The southern half of Virginia has been hammered with several extreme rain events and they are really vulnerable to flooding. Don't know about New Jersey.

1020. 900MB
So, in short, the next 12 hours will tell us if the storm is a NC-Jerz landfall, or an OTS. The key is, if it stops going south in the next 12 hours, we have a coastal. If it doesn't, OTS.
Quoting 1013. MahFL:

Can someone explain why the eye has not cleared out yet on ir and become nice and circular ?


Because that happens with steady storms. JQ has been rapidly intensifying since it was born.
Quoting 946. moonlightcowboy:

Hey, y'all. Anyone heard from Baha?


Hey! How the hell are you?
1023. Torito
Quoting 1004. help4u:

Very concerned NAM has changed course could mean changes on ECWMF run.


Hook right into NC



1024. SSL1441
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1......

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes


Better to be safe than sorry I say. More power to em.
1025. evsnds
Quoting 1009. hurricanes2018:

are you saying NAM went back to the west again


Not that the details are certain, but yeah, the NAM put it into NC/VA
Quoting 1015. FunnelVortex:



Oh my god. Are you sure this isn't an error?


So was there a surface wind reading of 22 mph? Don't they need to adjust for that with regards to surface pressure?
South movement has stopped. It's in "changing gears mode"

LET'S BEGIN
Quoting 1013. MahFL:

Can someone explain why the eye has not cleared out yet on ir and become nice and circular ?
Call Scott or Gro.
Time: 15:24:30Z
Coordinates: 22.883N 74.133W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.5 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,728 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 959.1 mb (28.33 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 301° at 118 kts (From the WNW at 135.8 mph)
Air Temp: 12.6°C (54.7°F)
Dew Pt: 12.6°C (54.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 120 kts (138.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 88 kts* (101.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 59 mm/hr* (2.32 in/hr*)
Quoting 1020. 900MB:

So, in short, the next 12 hours will tell us if the storm is a NC-Jerz landfall, or an OTS. The key is, if it stops going south in the next 12 hours, we have a coastal. If it doesn't, OTS.


Even with the Euro's OTS solution, it still puts a very powerful storm in the vicinity of Bermuda.
I wouldn't put too much stock in the NAM when it comes to track guidance. At this point there is nothing to suggest the EMCWF will waver from it's persistent track of Joaquin the past 6 runs.
1032. 900MB
Quoting 1007. wilsongti45:

Been watching the movement. The eye has stayed right above 23N for the past hour or so. Could be trying to move north, but yet again, could just be a wobble. Need more time to now for sure.



You can see that on the recon barbs as well.
1033. Patrap
Quoting 996. tiggeriffic:



one spaghetti said it would loop de loop over land... I would rather wait until that turd is no longer floating


I saw quite a few had the loop over land yesterday
Quoting 1020. 900MB:

So, in short, the next 12 hours will tell us if the storm is a NC-Jerz landfall, or an OTS. The key is, if it stops going south in the next 12 hours, we have a coastal. If it doesn't, OTS.


What if it is somewhere in between? Lets say it stops going south in say 6 hours?
Quoting 1016. 1Zach1:


Flooding is a very real concern here in VA, direct hit or not. We have already had a significant amount of rain in the past 72 hours and are looking at 10 inches more even with it out to sea.


Right i didnt fully consider the flooding that will occur regardless of the storm. I just dont like seeing the media claiming that this is another Sandy at this point it is irresponsible. An east coast landfall is possible, it is also not possible so the media needs to be careful with hysterics - the article says it "wont be the next Sandy" but the title is not helpful - http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/us/hurricane-joaquin
1037. evsnds
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1...... - http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/us/hurricane-joaquin /

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes


The state of emergency in VA isn't really so much about a landfalling hurricane, but about the 4-9 inches of rain we're expecting tomorrow. JQ ties into that because it's expected to be a fire hose of sorts, feeding the low with moisture.

It doesn't matter whether JQ goes OTS or smashes head first into long island, we're getting a LOT of rain tomorrow on already very saturated ground. In fact, it's still raining here right now.
Quoting 1026. ILwthrfan:



So was there a surface wind reading of 22 mph? Don't they need to adjust for that with regards to surface pressure?


I don't know what you are trying to say, but I was suprised by seeing a sub 940 MB pressure reading.
Active Major Cyclone
SW Atlantic Basin
011L/MH/J/C4
Vapor pressure of Atlantic sea water is 4% higher at 30dC than 29dC. Won't this be a fun rainload when the ocean warms another degree!
BBL...time to clean the yard...AGAIN...UGH
1042. Patrap
AF301 Mission #07 into JOAQUIN
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:32 UTC Oct 01, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 22.60°N 74.43°W
Bearing: 225° at 163 kt
Altitude: 2987 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 84 kt at 315°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 988.4 mb





Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1...... - http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/us/hurricane-joaquin /

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes


When is the best time to declare? a day before landfall? An hour? There's the question...people are complacent at best, and I'd rather see declaration early rather than late. You have to get people moving
Quoting 1015. FunnelVortex:



Oh my god. Are you sure this isn't an error?
Many errors yet to come.Nobody knows for sure.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago
Carolinas likely to see 6 to 17 inches of rain inland (!) as Hurr #Joaquin & upper-level trough do battle w/front
1046. Drakoen
Looks like the system is assuming a more westerly motion.
Quoting 1022. Floodman:

Hey! How the hell are you?


Good, Flood. Thanks. Hope all is well with you and everyone. Just dippin' in. Rough looking system sitting out there, lots of dynamics. Wobble here, wobble there, and it could get gravely serious. Hoping Baha and our Bahamas friends are hunkered down and safe.
1048. sfranz
Quoting 1028. hurricanefishfla:

Call Scott or Gro.



I'm wondering if the eye is hard to see clearly from satellite because of the strong central towers at the eyewall. Joaquin looks like an "outie" not an "innie".
Quoting 1006. Torito:

Pink in 3/4 quadrants now.




That's not good at all. If we see any more southern jogs those islands are going to take it hard on the chin from those cells. This is really concerning for the overall intensity because it's now got strong symmetry and suggest a ~135mph cat 4 to me, in spite of the official record of 125mph.

It's NHC being hyper-conservative again. I get why they do that, because they don't want to cause a panic, but I think they've put the wrong data in the latest model run, unless they just put all the raw data in and adjust for what they think is contamination. I'm not really sure how they handle that, but these data points are not contamination. It's been going on too consistently for a couple hours now, and now in 3 quadrants not just 2.
Quoting 1027. RitaEvac:

South movement has stopped. It's in "changing gears mode"

LET'S BEGIN
gonna go into maximum overdrive right to the top of the scale
NC/SC/VA are expecting a lot of rain tonight and tomorrow. They are saying we will get winds from the cold front that could uproot trees due to the saturated ground. Does anybody know if there is any idea whether uprooted trees will be a common occurrence or if it'll be pretty rare? Are there any maps that predict that sort of thing?
Quoting 1046. Drakoen:

Looks like the system is assuming a more westerly motion.


What does this mean for the long term track?
1053. Patrap
The NHC is the authority on the Hurricane, track, and intensity.

Thus the "National".




1054. nash36
Quoting 1045. Luisport:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago
Carolinas likely to see 6 to 17 inches of rain inland (!) as Hurr #Joaquin & upper-level trough do battle w/front


That's a staggering amount of rain!!
935mb is scary low. I hope Baha and the rest of the WU Bahamians are ok.
1056. 900MB
Quoting 1035. NovaScotia33:



What if it is somewhere in between? Lets say it stops going south in say 6 hours?


Then I think the low moving to the SE is more likely to fling it back to the coast. If this thing shows any change in direction to the North in the next 12 hours, I think we are going Coastal. Just my opinion.
1057. Torito
Quoting 1052. DurhamWeatherLover:



What does this mean for the long term track?


The faster the system turns north, the closer to the coast it will be because of the reduced amount of time the front has to push the system out into the ocean.
Quoting 1042. Patrap:

AF301 Mission #07 into JOAQUIN
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:32 UTC Oct 01, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 22.60°N 74.43°W
Bearing: 225° at 163 kt
Altitude: 2987 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 84 kt at 315°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 988.4 mb








Another 120kts barb. That should be 138mph, well into Category 4 status.
I thought shear was expected to pick up sooner than 60 hours. 12Z SHIPS run. YIKES

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 4 5 8 16 21 28
700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 66 66 63 54 46 57

Link
Quoting 1054. nash36:



That's a staggering amount of rain!!


One of our local mets on TV said he wouldn't be surprised to see localized areas getting 20 inches...
Why hasn't this been updated to cat 4 yet?
Some of you fail to understand that the State of Emergency for Virginia is not necessarily for Jaoquin, it's for the flooding rains we will receive over the next couple of days, as most of the state is expecting AT LEAST 5" of rain. That kind of stuff is going to test the flood walls here in Richmond VA as the James River passes right through it.
Quoting 1048. sfranz:




I'm wondering if the eye is hard to see clearly from satellite because of the strong central towers at the eyewall. Joaquin looks like an "outie" not an "innie".


I don't think the eye will be fully visible until he reaches his maximum strength/potential. We will keep seeing very intense thunderstorms continue to blow up around the eye, obscuring it at times, but certainly a sign that he is still intensifying.
1064. Patrap
Impressive Dvorak loop


Quoting 1061. washingtonian115:

Why hasn't this been updated to cat 4 yet?


This thing could possibly become a Cat. 5!
Quoting 1061. washingtonian115:

Why hasn't this been updated to cat 4 yet?



you have too wait in tell 2pm or 5pm silly
1067. ncstorm
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago

State avg forecast precip over next 5-days (NOAA/NWS WPC)
S Carolina 10.35"
N Carolina 7.35"
Delaware 7.21"
Maryland 5.60"
Wash DC: 5.34"
1068. fmbill
Thank God this was labeled "questionable"!

HIRES Report at 10/01/15 15:27 UTC
Position: 22.800 N 74.217 W
Flight Level Wind: 310° at 108 knots
Surface Wind: 139 knots
Pressure: 972 mb
GFS looks left......
Quoting 1059. SandyTimes10:

I thought shear was expected to pick up sooner than 60 hours. 12Z SHIPS run. YIKES

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 4 5 8 16 21 28
700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 66 66 63 54 46 57

Link
wind shear of 4 only in 24 hoursfrom now
Quoting 1060. DurhamWeatherLover:



One of our local mets on TV said he wouldn't be surprised to see localized areas getting 20 inches...

Flooding is going to be disasterous, even with this thing 200 miles from any coastline. The Bahamas are going to get drenched as well.
Quoting 1046. Drakoen:

Looks like the system is assuming a more westerly motion.
Quoting 1061. washingtonian115:

Why hasn't this been updated to cat 4 yet?
Because is not a cat 4 yet.
Quoting 1051. DurhamWeatherLover:

NC/SC/VA are expecting a lot of rain tonight and tomorrow. They are saying we will get winds from the cold front that could uproot trees due to the saturated ground. Does anybody know if there is any idea whether uprooted trees will be a common occurrence or if it'll be pretty rare? Are there any maps that predict that sort of thing?


That's mostly unpredictable, and happens on an individual tree bases, because you never know how good or bad the roots of trees are.

If you have had a lot of standing water around the base of trees and then very powerful winds come, they can uproot, but again it's a tree-by tree basis. One tree may be uprooted and another one 50 ft away does just fine and isn't effected.
Quoting 1067. ncstorm:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago

State avg forecast precip over next 5-days (NOAA/NWS WPC)
S Carolina 10.35"
N Carolina 7.35"
Delaware 7.21"
Maryland 5.60"
Wash DC: 5.34"
\

Seriously? Do we not exist?
have not seen T # like this in a long time for JQ


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2015 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 23:09:28 N Lon : 73:56:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 957.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.1 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -36.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Quoting 1070. hurricanes2018:

wind shear of 4 only in 24 hoursfrom now

Yep. A measly four.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
State avg forecast precip over next 5-days (NOAA/NWS WPC)
S Carolina 10.35"
N Carolina 7.35"
Delaware 7.21"
Maryland 5.60"
Wash DC: 5.34"
1078. ncstorm
Quoting 1074. VAbeachhurricanes:

\

Seriously? Do we not exist?


LOL..I didnt even notice but you quite right..he just left VA all out..
1079. 7544
loooks like jo wants to go west today look how thw outer bands are reaching over now to 75 west this is where it suppose to turn or will go more west hmmm
Is there any chance that Joaquin intensifies into a Cat 5 by early tomorrow morning? With the lower shear amounts, I was wondering if it would be possible.
1081. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop



I have not had a chance to look at the latest runs but are the models still building in a strong cut off low in the southeast? Isn't that going to be the deciding factor on whether or not this thing gets pulled into the Carolinas or push out to see. It looks like the GFS is trying to go east. This storm will be a true test for the models...who wins? The Euro or everyone else?
Have to say that Joaquin looks as good at the moment as many of the intense Typhoons that we have seen this year in the Pacific:


1084. MahFL
The overall storm is beginning to look a bit more circular :



Quoting 1080. weatherrx2012:

Is there any chance that Joaquin intensifies into a Cat 5 by early tomorrow morning? With the lower shear amounts, I was wondering if it would be possible.


It's a scary thought, but it's starting to look like it could.
Quoting 1061. washingtonian115:

Why hasn't this been updated to cat 4 yet?

Good question. NHC even said in their discussion that recon measured 117kt surface winds.
Quoting 892. Patrap:




pssst'

Half still do ..so the trend is better,but those runs are still out in time a lot.




GFDI is worse case scenario for me
12Z GFS nearly identical to 06Z run. Betting on a jog further east 25 or 50 miles north of the 35th parallel.
Quoting 1080. weatherrx2012:

Is there any chance that Joaquin intensifies into a Cat 5 by early tomorrow morning? With the lower shear amounts, I was wondering if it would be possible.


The way things are right now, it could happen today. Definitely would throw a monkey wrench into everything.
Quoting 1058. IndividualThinker2:



Another 120kts barb. That should be 138mph, well into Category 4 status.


Flight level winds........
Quoting 1064. Patrap:

Impressive Dvorak loop





I hope it isn't trying to become an annular Hurricane. It's starting to get those characteristics.
Quoting 1083. weathermanwannabe:

Have to say that Joaquin looks as good at the moment as many of the intense Typhoons that we have seen this year in the Pacific:





This is the storm of the season.


And to think it did not form from a Cape Verde wave, but rather was homegrown and formed from an Upper Level Low
1094. Patrap
1095. Patrap
Quoting 1092. ElConando:



I hope it isn't trying to become an annular Hurricane. It's starting to get those characteristics.


In no way is The Hurricane annular as the ADT and RECON report Spiral analysis.

1096. SSL1441
Quoting 1086. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good question. NHC even said in their discussion that recon measured 117kt surface winds.


By the latest readings from the HH, I see a plot reading around 135kt.... that's... 155.25 mph....
1097. 19N81W
luckily its going out to sea hopefully it spares most of the bahamas

Quoting 1093. FunnelVortex:



This is the storm of the season.


And to think it did not form from a Cape Verde wave, but rather was homegrown and formed from an Upper Level Low
Quoting 1059. SandyTimes10:

I thought shear was expected to pick up sooner than 60 hours. 12Z SHIPS run. YIKES

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72

SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 4 5 8 16 21 28
700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 66 66 63 54 46 57

Link


Yeah, the actual shear tendency forecast is negative, so it will have a few days of near-perfect conditions to intensify.

Sometimes when a hurricane first taps into a trough it can actually help ventilate the hurricane and strengthen it, but then when they sort of get jammed together it tends to eventually weaken it. So I'm guessing the storm will reach peak intensity some time tomorrow or the next day, assuming it doesn't get too much interaction with the bahamas islands or Cuba (if it keeps drifting south), but the south drift may have stopped in the past hour or so.

Apparently what that means is stronger maximum intensity (tomorrow or the next day) then a Category 1 or 2 landfall, or very close call, up the east coast into North Carolina, Virginia, or Southern New England. Either way, the inland flooding is going to be ridiculously heavy in the entire region.
Quoting 1092. ElConando:



I hope it isn't trying to become an annular Hurricane. It's starting to get those characteristics.


If this thing goes annular then there is a chance that we will all end up owing Cam an apology.
Quoting 1086. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good question. NHC even said in their discussion that recon measured 117kt surface winds.
I think Wahkeen will definitely be the benchmark for ULL's over the Atlantic.We've seen ones work down to the surface and become T.S but never Cat 4's going on 5's.
the more W JQ gets the closer it comes too FL i wounder how close too FL this storm will get be for the NW turn and then N up the E coast if it gets any closer too FL then OTS will be out and will have a land falling storm some where a long the SC or NC coast am thinking more of a NC land fall right now



i do not buy any of the model runs in tell the starts it NW turn and tell then all model runs are out the window once we see how close too the coast it gets then we can pick out a model run but in tell then all model run are out the window
1102. Patrap
AF301 Mission #07 into JOAQUIN
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:52 UTC Oct 01, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 22.00°N 74.33°W
Bearing: 90° at 334 kt
Altitude: 3054 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 62 kt at 283°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 995.1 mb








Quoting 1096. SSL1441:



By the latest readings from the HH, I see a plot reading around 135kt.... that's... 155.25 mph....



Um....link please, I did not see that.

It's possible that is just a gust or a water spout, because that's an extreme outlier from the data I've seen...
1104. NatsFan
Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1...... - http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/us/hurricane-joaquin /

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes


The state of emergency in VA was declared because of the rain we are getting today and tomorrow that has nothing to do with Joaquin. Already flooding in the western part of the state. Entire state under a flash flood watch now.
1105. LemieT
I see most of the comments are centering around possible US impacts, but right now I am concerned that a Cat3 and strengthening system is basically sitting over flat, inhabited islands. This can't be a good situation for the Bahamas and to a lesser extent the Turks and Caicos.

The worrisome thing is that we can't really get any info at this time because the storm is more or less just sitting there.

Let's hope the OTS [after trashing the Bahamas ;-( ] forecast verifes if not there will be much suffering in the days ahead. The entire East Coast is so saturated right now that this much tropical moisture being added to the pot would not be even remotely good.
Quoting 1074. VAbeachhurricanes:

\

Seriously? Do we not exist?
I thought SC would be the one to receive less rain than NC as Joaquin would not affectedd directly.
1107. ncstorm

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12

Wow 939 mb on the latest vortex message-- lowest Atlantic basin pressure since Igor 2010 #Joaquin #hurricane #weather
1108. SSL1441
Quoting 1103. IndividualThinker2:




Um....link please, I did not see that.

It's possible that is just a gust or a water spout, because that's an extreme outlier from the data I've seen...


Well I would agree... if there wasn't a massive pressure drop as well to go with it...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301- 0711A-JOAQUIN_timeseries.png
1109. Patrap
Jim Cantore via FB 24 mins ago

Many of you are guessing goal posts for ‪#‎Joaquin‬. In this day of instant gratification, it just doesn't work that way for the atmosphere.
Some pretty severe coastal flooding occurring in acklins, crooked island, long island and Exuma. Reports of the sea coming into peoples homes in acklins in particular.
Quoting 1095. Patrap:



In no way is The Hurricane annular as the ADT and RECON report Spiral analysis.




Oh I saw that, not near that now, you're right. The core is becoming more circular but could just be temporary. If it sheds the bands then we can start worrying about that. It's still dangerous regardless.
1112. ncstorm
One thing I've learned on here and has always stuck with me is that a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5 can create their own steering environments..

It was suppose to be dry today but it has been raining very moderately! wtfkvnnamhlmjktgo!
1114. fmbill
Pressure still dropping.

Vortex Report at 10/01/15 15:20 UTC
Position: 23.07 N 73.98 W
Max Surface Wind: 89 kts.
Max Wind Location: 343° at 15 NM
Central Pressure: 939 MB
Eye Info: Circular; open nw; 32 NM
Wow.
they did actually get a data point at around 135kts accompanied by 7cm/hr rainfall rates, but again I would caution about reading too much into that just yet. It's most likely a water spout, not actual hurricane winds.
12z is further out to sea so far.

Quoting 1009. hurricanes2018:

are you saying NAM went back to the west again



Don't go by the NAM or any model other than the GFS and EURO.... for intensity models...the HWRF is somewhat reliable but not in movement past 24-36hrs
1118. Crazman
Quoting 1099. FunnelVortex:



If this thing goes annular then there is a chance that we will all end up owing Cam an apology.


Dont annular hurricanes have the tendancy to create their own steering?
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:

12z is further out to sea so far.





Good news! Our local TV station is saying the impact to NC will be rain and maybe some waves. No landfall expected.
Quoting 1095. Patrap:



In no way is The Hurricane annular as the ADT and RECON report Spiral analysis.




Looking very closely at that loop, JQ seems to be moving more west now.
Quoting 1114. fmbill:

Pressure still dropping.

Vortex Report at 10/01/15 15:20 UTC
Position: 23.07 N 73.98 W
Max Surface Wind: 89 kts.
Max Wind Location: 343° at 15 NM
Central Pressure: 939 MB
Eye Info: Circular; open nw; 32 NM


Could be replacing the eyewall?
I think Joaquin is the strongest storm to develop from an upper low since Typhoon Soulik in July 2013.
1123. Torito
Quoting 1108. SSL1441:



Well I would agree... if there wasn't a massive pressure drop as well to go with it...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301- 0711A-JOAQUIN_timeseries.png


1. The red line is a pressure reading, not a wind speed reading.
2.The gray line is the plane height, not the pressure.
3.I'm sure they didn't just fly up 100M and back down within 2 minutes.
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:

12z is further out to sea so far.





i dont buy it
1125. SSL1441
Quoting 1115. IndividualThinker2:

Wow.
they did actually get a data point at around 135kts accompanied by 7cm/hr rainfall rates, but again I would caution about reading too much into that just yet. It's most likely a water spout, not actual hurricane winds.


Maybe so, but I don't think so. Look at the timing of it. The pressure drop is right before that data point and rapidly comes back up. Flight level winds also deaden then increase rapidly as they enter that point. That tells me that they were in the eye and slammed into the eyewall again. could have just been a gust, but either way, that doesn't signal to me water spout.
1126. ncstorm
TWC..

BetaDrift..a stronger storm would move North..a tilted trough will pull it to the west..
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:

12z is further out to sea so far.



You will also notice that it has Joaquin pegged at a slower pace up until 72 hours, which could also indicate why we are seeing more consensus with the EMCFW.
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:

12z is further out to sea so far.




Looks like it's trying to curve it around. It could possibly affect the upper NE or Newfoundland in this run.
1129. sfranz

Toss the dog in the car an head to Canada? No, not yet.

Recheck that hurricane kit, pick up a little extra water, make sure you can get the car into the garage, and start coralling the loose stuff in the yard? Wouldn't hurt.








Quoting 1005. thomaskerr1027:

Not saying that people on the East Coast shouldnt be preparing for a storm, but isnt it a little premature to be declaring States of Emergency (in Virginia, and now New Jersey) this many days out - plus the forecast confidence is very low, why not wait a day and then make a decision? Better safe than sorry I suppose, cue media hysteria in 3...2...1...... - http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/01/us/hurricane-joaquin /

I hope it goes out to Sea to swim with the fishes
Quoting 1108. SSL1441:



Well I would agree... if there wasn't a massive pressure drop as well to go with it...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301- 0711A-JOAQUIN_timeseries.png


Well, that's nuts.

I hope it's not indicative of the way this storm is actually evolving, otherwise things could get out of hand in a hurry.
Quoting 1110. ExumaMET:

Some pretty severe coastal flooding occurring in acklins, crooked island, long island and Exuma. Reports of the sea coming into peoples homes in acklins in particular.
yes it will likely increased even more yet in the effects at the surface everything is still trying to catch up to the pressure the winds the surge the rains
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Newest GFS run is now in agreement with the EURO.. NHC will most likely shift the tracka good bit to the east and discount other runs showing a left turn. USA may escape this storm afterall and the EURO will have it's biggest victory this year.
Moving wnw now.The shift is clear.
Quoting 1118. Crazman:



Dont annular hurricanes have the tendancy to create their own steering?


Yes. Which is why I said if JQ becomes annular there is a chance we might end up owing cam an apology.
This would be not a good time for the models to totally mess up like they did with Erika. With so many lives at stake in the Bahamas, and the Eastern Seaboard, this is going to be worse than Sandy for whoever gets the storm.
1137. SSL1441
Quoting 1123. Torito:



1. The red line is a pressure reading, not a wind speed reading.
2.The gray line is the plane height, not the pressure.
3.I'm sure they didn't just fly up 100M and back down within 2 minutes.


Uhm. What are you looking at? I'm looking at the surface wind which is in blue at the top right which clearly shows a 135 kt data point. To the left of it, clearly there is MSLP and flight level winds, which show similar things.
1138. MahFL
Quoting 1105. LemieT:

I see most of the comments are centering around possible US impacts, but right now I am concerned that a Cat3 and strengthening system is basically sitting over flat, inhabited islands.


They are not completely flat, most have ridges that are 60 feet high. Also building codes there are very high.
Quoting 1129. sfranz:


Toss the dog in the car an head to Canada? No, not yet.

Recheck that hurricane kit, pick up a little extra water, make sure you can get the car into the garage, and start coralling the loose stuff in the yard? Wouldn't hurt.









very cold here brr brr brr lots of snow in winter igloo outhouses for bathrooms and nothing but whale blubber too eat stay away
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:

12z is further out to sea so far.


out to sea here
Quoting 1116. SouthCentralTx:

12z is further out to sea so far.


Bye bye Wahkeen!
Quoting 1112. ncstorm:

One thing I've learned on here and has always stuck with me is that a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5 can create their own steering environments..




They can, but not in the face of otherwise very strong steering elements, like the trough to the west of Joaquin. Check out the jet stream maps. The trough dips all the way down to the Yucatan. Right now it's in weak steering currents but when it starts to feel the trough, the trough will steer it northward.
Quoting 1121. tornadodude:



Could be replacing the eyewall?


The eye has been slightly open the whole time really, which is why it has at times looked elongated and ragged to the north, which also gives the illusion of wobbles from time to time. This is why we have to make use of all resources and not rely on frame-by-frame wobbles, although large wobbles can be signficant at times.

I think the general motion has actually been west for a while, but officially it's still moving SW.
Quoting 1043. Floodman:



When is the best time to declare? a day before landfall? An hour? There's the question...people are complacent at best, and I'd rather see declaration early rather than late. You have to get people moving


Floodman!!!. Guess rumors of your demise where greatly exagerated!
Good to see you brother.
JOAQUIN has even spread outer fringe affects to Cayman Brac - now experiencing gusty possible rain storm conditions out of SW (unusual for the Brac) on South Side, which I can only presume are from the furthest outlying Feeder Bands of JOAQUIN - just an observation and certainly nothing to fret about.

Stay Safe ALL in the Bahamas
1146. sfranz
Quoting 1139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

very cold here brr brr brr lots of snow in winter igloo outhouses for bathrooms and nothing but whale blubber too eat stay away

Ah - so just like here in Massachusetts. :-)

Quoting 1144. tropicofcancer:



Floodman!!!. Guess rumors of your demise where greatly exagerated!
Good to see you brother.


Good to be seen! Takes more than old age and that puny little Angel of Death to take out the Floodman

How you been?
1148. JRRP

Quoting 1147. Floodman:



Good to be seen! Takes more than old age and that puny little Angel of Death to take out the Floodman

How you been?


One of the good ol boys, I was wondering where you had went, good to see you around again!