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Joaquin Approaching Bahamas; Possible U.S. Landfall This Weekend

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 9:14 PM GMT on September 30, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin is developing into a formidable storm as it churns over record-warm waters east of the Bahamas. Top sustained winds in Joaquin were 85 mph as of the 5:00 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the central pressure had dropped to 967 millibars. Joaquin's center was located roughly 175 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas. A large, distinct eyewall was evident on Wednesday morning imagery from microwave imagery and from visual observations from an Air Force hurricane-hunter aircraft. An eye was intermittently apparent on visible satellite imagery by early Wednesday afternoon, although the eye remained largely obscured by clouds. Infrared imagery showed an enlarging shield of showers and thunderstorms (convection) around Joaquin's core. Northwesterly wind shear was still limiting the amount of outflow on Joaquin's north side, but the shear appears to be slowly relaxing.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Hurricane Joaquin, collected at 1915Z (3:15 pm EDT) Wednesday, September 30, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

With its continued fairly slow motion (only 8 mph) toward the southwest, Joaquin remains on a track somewhat further south than earlier expected. Hurricane warnings are now up for the central and northwestern Bahamas, with a tropical storm warning for the southeastern Bahamas. Joaquin is expected to move very slowly over the central Bahamas over the next two days, before embarking on a much more rapid northward track on Friday that will take it safely away from the Bahamas.


Figure 2. GOES 13 image of Hurricane Joaquin approaching the Bahamas as seen on Wednesday, September 30, 2015, at 9:15 am EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Impact of Joaquin on the Bahamas
Winds were rising across the Central Bahamas on Wednesday afternoon, and were a brisk 31 mph, gusting to 37 mph, at  2:34 pm EDT at a personal weather station on Exuma Island. Shemp's Webcam from Exuma Island on Wednesday afternoon showed a steady increase in clouds, and in whitecaps on the waters, as Joaquin approached.

Joaquin's main threat to the Bahamas is likely to be wind damage. The 5 pm Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave the highest chances of hurricane-force winds of 62% to San Salvador Island (population 930). Hurricane-force winds are slightly less likely on Cat Island (population 1,500), to the northwest of San Salvador Island. Heavy rains of 10 - 20 inches in the Central Bahamas may also cause damage, as well as the large waves of the storm riding up on top of the expected 2 - 4' storm surge. The latest 8 am EDT (12Z) Wednesday run of the GFS model portrays the center of Joaquin passing over San Salvador Island around 2 pm EDT Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph have likely already begun on the island, so they are in for a long battering. More concerning for the Central Bahamas is the latest 12Z Wednesday forecast from the European model, which has Joaquin penetrating about 70 miles farther to the southwest, stalling out over Exuma Island on Thursday night.


Figure 3. This Maximum Water Depth storm surge image for the Bahamas shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, as predicted using dozens of runs of NOAA's SLOSH model. For example, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. No single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this image. The regions of the Bahamas most vulnerable to storm surge tend to lie on the southwest sides of the islands. Since Joaquin is approaching from the northeast, the storm's peak on-shore winds will be affecting the northeast sides of the islands, where deeper offshore waters tend not to allow larger storm surges to build. NHC is forecasting peak water levels (the depth of water above the high tide mark) of 2 - 4 feet from Joaquin in the Bahamas. See wunderground's storm surge pages for more storm surge info.

Hurricane history for the Bahamas
The last hurricane to affect the Bahamas was Hurricane Sandy of 2012, which passed through the Central Bahamas as a Category 2 storm with winds of up to 105 mph. Sandy caused two deaths and damage estimated at $703 million, equivalent to 9% of the nation's GDP. The most severe damage was on Cat Island and Exuma, due to wind and storm surge. According to EM-DAT, the most expensive hurricane in Bahamian history was Category 4 Hurricane Frances of 2004, with damages estimated at $1 billion.

Where will Joaquin go after the Bahamas?
Joaquin is trapped to the south of a high pressure system whose clockwise flow will push the cyclone very slowly to the southwest or west-southwest at about 3 - 6 mph. As the storm progresses to the southwest, the strong upper-level winds out of the north currently bringing high wind shear of 20 knots will gradually decrease, allowing Joaquin to strengthen. The 2 pm EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over Joaquin would fall to the light to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday. These conditions should allow Joaquin to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane, and possibly a major Category 3 hurricane, by Friday. As Joaquin progresses to the west, the storm will also increasingly "feel" the steering influence of a strong upper-level trough of low pressure situated over the Eastern United States.


Figure 4. The operational GFS and ECWFM model runs from 12Z Wednesday, September 30, offer wildly differing projections for Hurricane Joaquin for 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, October 4. Image credit:Levi Cowan, www.tropicaltidbits.com, via Phil Klotzbach.

The big trend from the 00Z Wednesday suite of computer model guidance was a marked convergence among models toward a landfall in the vicinity of North Carolina or Virginia. Among the major dynamical models, only the ECMWF remained adamant that Joaquin would head to sea well before reaching the southeast U.S. Little had changed in the 12Z Wednesday round, as the non-ECMWF models (GFS, HWRF, GFDL, UKMET) were heavily clustered around a potential landfall in or near North Carolina on Saturday or Sunday while the ECMWF kept Joaquin well out to sea at the same point.


Figure 5. The operational ECMWF (top) and GFS (bottom) model runs from 0Z Wednesday, September 30, showed similar depictions of the eastern U.S. trough steering Joaquin, but much different depictions of an intensifying upper-level trough east of Newfoundland. This may help explain why the ECMWF operational model is taking Joaquin out to sea. Image credit: Ben Papandrea, WSI.


Why the discrepancy between the ECMWF and other models? The leftward hook prominently featured in the other models is being driven by the increasingly negative tilt (NW-to-SE) to the upper trough deepening over the eastern U.S. late this week. The models are projecting that this trough would pull in Joaquin on its northeast side, in much the same way that a strong upper-level low did with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012, although in this case the process would unfold a couple of hundred miles to the south. The ECMWF run shows a very similar upper-level pattern to the other models across the eastern U.S., but Joaquin's interaction with the trough occurs later in the ECMWF, giving the hurricane a chance to escape some of the trough's influence. Another feature of interest is an upper-level low east of Newfoundland, which is depicted as being much stronger in the GFS than in the ECMWF (see Figure 5 at right). This low is associated with increased ridging in the Northwest Pacific that would help shunt Joaquin into the U.S. East Coast, in tandem with the eastern U.S. upper trough.

Back in 2012, the ECMWF model caught on to the leftward hook of Sandy's track several days before other models. The ECMWF's high overall skill means we cannot entirely discount its out-to-sea forecast for Joaquin just yet. At the same time, the strong consistency among other leading models in projecting a landfall in or near North Carolina cannot be ignored. We can gain more perspective on the mid-Atlantic scenario by looking at the ECMWF and GFS ensemble output from 00Z Wednesday. In each ensemble, the model is run a number of times for the same situation, but with the starting conditions varied slightly to represent the uncertainty in our starting-point observations of the atmosphere. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles from 00Z Wednesday are much more similar in flavor than you might expect from looking at their single operational runs. Both models have a majority of ensemble members heading for the U.S. East Coast, with a few outliers heading to sea.

What kind of U.S. impacts could Joaquin bring?
A hurricane watch could be required for portions of the U.S. East Coast as early as Thursday night, and NHC is now citing the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas. If Joaquin moves along the track projected by most models, hurricane-force winds could arrive somewhere on the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend. Very high seas and a significant storm surge could also be expected. It is relatively rare for a hurricane to make a Sandy-like left hook into the U.S. East Coast. Such a track was unprecedented for New Jersey in hurricane annals, and even in the NC/VA area, it is uncommon enough that the likely effects would be both unusual and high-impact. The closest analogue from recent years is 2003's Hurricane Isabel. Isabel brought a major storm surge into the Chesapeake Bay and nearby waterways, plus widespread impacts from high wind and heavy rain. Such an outcome would depend heavily on the exact track of Joaquin. Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham of LSU has a detailed look at the potential for storm surge from Joaquin along the U.S. East Coast in his Wednesday morning blog post, Widespread Storm Surge Event to Impact U.S. Atlantic Coast.

Regardless of Joaquin's precise motion, any approach toward the U.S. East Coast would exacerbate what is becoming a serious flooding threat over a large area, due to a preexisting front being overtopped by near-record amounts of water vapor streaming over the region ahead of the trough that will help steer Joaquin (see Figure 7).


Figure 6. Rainfall observed over the 24-hour period ending at 1200 GMT (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday, September 30, 2015. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 7. Moisture from several parts of the tropics was converging on the Northeast United States between 700 and 500 mb (roughly 2 to 4 miles high) at 1530Z (11:30 am EDT) Tuesday, September 29, 2015. The depiction of moisture channels on this image was created by Sheldon Kusselson atop a map of precipitable water (the amount of water vapor above particular points) produced using data from multiple sensors by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. The water-vapor analysis system was recently highlighted in a paper in the Journal of Operational Meteorology. Image credit: Sheldon Kusselson and CIRA/CSU.


Flash flooding has popped up in several spots from Virginia to Maine over the last day (see the embedded tweet below from Belfast, ME). Portland, ME, received 5.61" of rain between midnight and 3:00 pm EDT Wednesday, overwhelming drainage systems and causing widespread street flooding. This morning's 7-day outlook from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center showed a vast area of 5-10" rainfall amounts from North Carolina to southern New England, and flood watches are posted for most of the U.S. East Coast. Model output suggests that localized 7-day totals of 10-20" or more are not out of the question, depending on Joaquin's exact track. The potential for major, widespread flooding-related impacts from Joaquin, in combination with the already-unfolding heavy rain event, should be taken very seriously.

We'll have our next update on Joaquin by Thursday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson




Bob Henson will be on WUTV on the Weather Channel at 6:20 pm EDT Wednesday, and Jeff Masters will be on at 7:20 pm.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 995. ncstorm:

Cat 3 and under I stay..

Cat 4 and up...Deuces..


I got a funky feeling bout this little turd...we got flooded a few weeks ago...set records we had so much rain... then a tornado last week...touched down just a few thousand feet from my sons place...now this monster...ugh
T - 55 MINS TILL HEATING SEASON 2015/16 FIRST RUN
1003. ncstorm
1005. FOREX
Quoting 998. ProgressivePulse:



Good chance a 4 or 5 will be traversing those waters as a result.
This could have come on the heels of a Major in the Gulf if shear hadn't kept 99L in check a few day ago.
Quoting 952. sar2401:

We don't have data what can distinguish between a hit on one place or another yet. The models have fallen out of agreement with the last runs, so whatever certainty we thought we had is starting to evaporate. Until Joaquin makes the turn and we can start actually seeing the direction it takes, all the rest is just talk. Radio and TV stations need to fill air time, so they will have plenty of people ready to pump their favorite forecast.


The "models" haven't fallen out of agreement...They are in relatively good agreement...Minus the Euro

It's Corinne
Vs Tide & Gyre...Or are we already using the new unit? Hard to find info on when it was supposed to/is supposed to go op.



Quoting 987. 900MB:

And people scoffed at HWRF intensity forecasts over past couple days.
You got that right!  Amazing!
1008. flsky
Has anyone been tracking weather info out of Cuba? They're pretty good at this sort of situation.
even if this dos weak end some down too high end cat 3 from cat 4 or 5 storm you are still going too have a cat 4 or 5 storm surge in the area
Typhoon Dujuan Sept28-29 Radar Loop. Anyone know how Taiwan fared?

1011. ncstorm
Quoting 1001. tiggeriffic:



I got a funky feeling bout this little turd...we got flooded a few weeks ago...set records we had so much rain... then a tornado last week...touched down just a few thousand feet from my sons place...now this monster...ugh



If it came in at SC, my area would be on the dirty side of it..
1012. LostnVB
This storm is getting strong. If you are in the path and it's Cat3 or more, leave before you hear this on the radio...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

Interesting question, has the NHC ever been off 100 MPH in intensity on a 5 day forecast before?
1014. AySz88
Quoting 1002. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T - 55 MINS TILL HEATING SEASON 2015/16 FIRST RUN


Are you talking about the heat generated by the WU servers as they try to serve all the people starting to tune in? :p
Quoting 989. NasBahMan:



If you need rainfall amounts anytime I'll be happy to give them to you, I'm the official rainfall record station for eastern New Providence for the Met Department. Probably shouldn't let on to that after I just finished bashing their website!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah.... but your rainfall totals and my rainfall totals can vary by INCHES on any given day ..... lol .... as in it is TOTALLY dry out here while you guys get 6 inches of rain in 12 hours ..... lol ....

Thanks for the offer, and I may take you up on it at some point.
Quoting 1010. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Typhoon Dujuan Sept28-29 Radar Loop. Anyone know how Taiwan fared?





thats is way off topic of the blog topic we are in full storm mode here and the main chat is JQ right now and not some tyhoon in the W PAC please stay on topic
Quoting 978. hurricanes2018:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH


crazy number here 140 mph in 24 hours from now..

I know, and to think she reached Cat 1 at 8AM EST;
"The depression
is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly
winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show
the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone
either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days.
" -- NHC, 11pm Sep. 27, 2015

We have a lot to learn.
Quoting 983. LostnVB:



Straight up Chesapeake Bay is a nasty forecast. That will pile some water up bigtime.
and drop a ton of rain well inland as well welcome to the peak and end of the 2015 hurricane season
Quoting 1006. StormJunkie:



The "models" haven't fallen out of agreement...They are in relatively good agreement...Minus the Euro

It's Corinne
Vs Tide & Gyre...Or are we already using the new unit? Hard to find info on when it was supposed to/is supposed to go op.







You mean Luna & Surge?

To date, the two new CRAY systems have been delivered to Reston (Luna) and Orlando (Surge). The Orlando system has been installed the software is being loaded and system tuning is taking place. Acceptance testing is scheduled to begin on August 12, 2015. The Orlando system will be installed and the build out will take place during July and August. By October 2015, the combined IBM/Cray systems in Reston, VA and Orlando, FL will be operating with 2.8 PFlops, 3748 Nodes, 84,512 Cores, and 8.124 PB of storage.
Quoting 1008. flsky:

Has anyone been tracking weather info out of Cuba? They're pretty good at this sort of situation.
I notice Cuba hasn't posted any advisories yet.
Good k'nig 'it

Quoting 987. 900MB:

And people scoffed at HWRF intensity forecasts over past couple days.


Guilty. Didn't think it was impossible, it didn't do great with Erika iirc so I mentioned it, but in hindsight which model did lol

I'll remember to grab my crossbow and nab me a dark-feathered dinner, if 140 mph is to happen.
And to imagine the first forecast had this only staying as a sheared depression.I did say that if Wahkeen was ever named it sounds like a storm that would be problems.
1024. 900MB
Welp, that was one heck of a day! I'm toast. Catchya all after the 5am....
Go away Joaquin!
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"The depression
is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly
winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show
the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone
either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days.
" -- NHC, 11pm Sep. 27, 2015

We have a lot to learn.

LOL!!!!!
1027. FOREX
Quoting 1021. BahaHurican:

I notice Cuba hasn't posted any advisories yet.
Cuba should just get light rain and a light breeze since the hurricane will be turning NorthWest soon.
Quoting 1012. LostnVB:

This storm is getting strong. If you are in the path and it's Cat3 or more, leave before you hear this on the radio...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8




That is absolutely surreal and horrifying!
Quoting 1016. Tazmanian:




thats is way off topic of the blog topic we are in full storm mode here and the main chat is JQ right now and not some tyhoon in the W PAC please stay on topic


Right away SIR!

the cone is the same !!!
1031. juslivn
. NHC, 11pm Sep. 27, 2015

sorreh
Let's see if the line of demarcation or 75W holds. Only 90 or so miles to go.

Quoting 1016. Tazmanian:




thats is way off topic of the blog topic we are in full storm mode here and the main chat is JQ right now and not some tyhoon in the W PAC please stay on topic


Full storm mode, that's a thing?

I'm actually a bit curious about what happened, though I didn't hear much in the news thanks to JQ.

Sleep tight all
1034. nash36
Quoting 997. tiggeriffic:



did you look at the spaghetti's from 8pm? they have a hard left...almost nauseating to look at in a way



I did. While I don't believe we're looking at a Hugo, I can't completely dismiss a track into Myrtle, or points slightly north. Not yet, anyhow.
1035. vis0
old imgs  near midnite::
image host image host
CREDIT:: NOAA
SAT imagery:: vFog "popped" via FTG to give a sunrise/sunset 3D-ish look. Better present billowing clouds/Towers to see if movement is temporary (clouds billowing in one direction or other) as opposed to entire storm moving.

http://imgbox.com/g/UYynx5Jh27 aka 2015Joaquin_Sep30_Oct01 AM hrs EDT

whats officially not IDA doing? of course first things first JQ & ENSO-e/GoMx assisted flooding

The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the
global models to become even more conducive during the next couple
of days. This favors additional intensification, with the only
possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the
slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some
fluctuations in intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause
gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been
significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to
the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the
lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first
36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time.
1037. sar2401
Quoting 944. gator23:


The forecast point that it is currently south of is where it is supposed to be between now and 2 AM. If I posted this at 8:00 PM as opposed to 11:00 pm you would have a point. But since it is 11:00 and has had three hours to move to the second forecast point then i has clearly missed it. It would have to teleport north east to be on that point in 1-2 hours.
I'm looking at it now. It appears to be pretty close to the 0200 forecast point. If it's off, it's maybe 20 miles. That's close enough for government work.
1038. nash36
Quoting 1023. washingtonian115:

And to imagine the first forecast had this only staying as a sheared depression.I did say that if Wahkeen was ever named it sounds like a storm that would be problems.


Well, of course!

He grew a nasty beard and got very angry. Oh....wait....we're talking about the hurricane.
Quoting 1015. BahaHurican:

Yeah.... but your rainfall totals and my rainfall totals can vary by INCHES on any given day ..... lol .... as in it is TOTALLY dry out here while you guys get 6 inches of rain in 12 hours ..... lol ....

Thanks for the offer, and I may take you up on it at some point.


You got that right, I've seen it when I recorded over 2" and two blocks away they didn't have a drop.

I'm out for the night, got a lot of stuff to do in the morning.

Everyone stay safe, and don't take any chances just to gets some cool pictures.
Ok, this may be a silly question, but what happens if Juaquin continues to strengthen...does it do it's own thing and not follow the models projected paths? Could it continue to go more sw or westerly impacting Florida or Georgia? I have noticed that this season a majority of the storms have NOT followed the projected paths and "did their own thing" so to speak. As we seem to be in climate change, could all the previous data be misinterpreting tracks, intensity, etc. as our planet climate changes and evolves making past traks, intensity, and tracks not follow the "norm"? Just a thought. Prayers for all in the Bahamas for a safe time through this storm.


Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"The depression
is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly
winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the
central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show
the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone
either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days.
" -- NHC, 11pm Sep. 27, 2015

We have a lot to learn.
Someone posted earlier about 99L, without thinking about how 99L as a major over the Gulf would have seriously and adversely impacted the development of this major. Joaquin is here now in this present form rather than as the early forecast's remnant low because synoptic features downstream [or is it upstream?] like that TX ULL and the fizzle of 99L didn't play out as they were expected to.

As I said before, if we can figure out how to accurately predict what drives the synoptics, we'd improve track and in particular intensity by an order of magnitude.
1042. 7544
now andros is in the hurricane watch if this thing now at at 3 get that far west fl might get some effects a cat 4 just east of them ?lets hope jo doesent pull a fast one now as we all await that turn !
1043. Gearsts
The 12z Euro has more support and increase chance of OTS.
Link
1044. gator23
Quoting 1012. LostnVB:

This storm is getting strong. If you are in the path and it's Cat3 , leave before you hear this on the radio...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8



That is fake tho
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 27.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 27.7N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 27.9N 69.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 28.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
1046. ncstorm
The NHC has the hardest job right now..

I wouldn't trade places with none of them..they literally have millions of people lives to protect in the upcoming days..

Call them out now but remember you may just have to thank them in the future..



1047. gator23
Quoting 1042. 7544:

now andros is in the hurricane watch if this thing now at at 3 get that far west fl might get some effects a cat 4 just east of them ?lets hope jo doesent pull a fast one now as we all await that turn !


A missed trough would be a nightmare scenario. Worth watching
Quoting 1038. nash36:



Well, of course!

He grew a nasty beard and got very angry. Oh....wait....we're talking about the hurricane.


As I posted earlier, which line you gonna walk Joaquin?
Quoting 1027. FOREX:

Cuba should just get light rain and a light breeze since the hurricane will be turning NorthWest soon.
My point was that if Cuba isn't posting advisories, I'm not going to worry too much about Joaquin dropping too much further south.
Quoting 1043. Gearsts:

The 12z Euro has more support and increase chance of OTS.
Link



here what the NHC said about that and they saide its a outliner and i 100% agreed with them

from the NHC 11pm update

The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier
by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea.


the NHC is not buying the ECMWF
Quoting 1010. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Typhoon Dujuan Sept28-29 Radar Loop. Anyone know how Taiwan fared?




at least 3 dead last I saw. Probably better than expected considering how intense it was. Its remnants are going to bring flooding to Hokkaido.
1052. Melagoo
1053. LostnVB
Quoting 1040. CitikatzSouthFL:

Ok, this may be a silly question, but what happens if Juaquin continues to strengthen...does it do it's own thing and not follow the models projected paths? Could it continue to go more sw or westerly impacting Florida or Georgia? I have noticed that this season a majority of the storms have NOT followed the projected paths and "did their own thing" so to speak. As we seem to be in climate change, could all the previous data be misinterpreting tracks, intensity, etc. as our planet climate changes and evolves making past traks, intensity, and tracks not follow the "norm"? Just a thought. Prayers for all in the Bahamas for a safe time through this storm.





Research Hurricane Andrew a little. Anything is possible, but I would hope we've got a little better handle on things 20+ years later. Same area though. The quick strengthening has me worried a little. Not really for Florida, but Bahamas and points north.
1054. will45
the slow speed will make the rains tremendous and the ground is already saturated here in NC
Quoting 1040. CitikatzSouthFL:

Ok, this may be a silly question, but what happens if Juaquin continues to strengthen...does it do it's own thing and not follow the models projected paths? Could it continue to go more sw or westerly impacting Florida or Georgia? I have noticed that this season a majority of the storms have NOT followed the projected paths and "did their own thing" so to speak. As we seem to be in climate change, could all the previous data be misinterpreting tracks, intensity, etc. as our planet climate changes and evolves making past traks, intensity, and tracks not follow the "norm"? Just a thought. Prayers for all in the Bahamas for a safe time through this storm.



stronger it gets the more likely an enhance period of fast forward motion due poleward north with a left turn as it cycles down then xtrop transition ne ward somewhere sse from the western end of lake Ontario
Quoting 1044. gator23:


That is fake tho


The words are very real, but the emergency broadcast itself is fake (probably). The words are verbatim from the NWS NOLA office's bulletin on Katrina.

Edit: here it is Link
Quoting 1020. nrtiwlnvragn:




You mean Luna & Surge?

To date, the two new CRAY systems have been delivered to Reston (Luna) and Orlando (Surge). The Orlando system has been installed the software is being loaded and system tuning is taking place. Acceptance testing is scheduled to begin on August 12, 2015. The Orlando system will be installed and the build out will take place during July and August. By October 2015, the combined IBM/Cray systems in Reston, VA and Orlando, FL will be operating with 2.8 PFlops, 3748 Nodes, 84,512 Cores, and 8.124 PB of storage.



Was just thinking it sure would be nice if you were around! Thanks! So is Surge running the data now? Or are they still in buyoff?
1058. nash36
Quoting 1050. Tazmanian:




here what the NHC said about that and they saide its a outliner and i 100% agreed with them

from the NHC 11pm update

The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier
by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea.


the NHC is not buying the ECMWF


They're not discounting it out of hand either. Nor should they. Where this trough cuts off, in relation to the hurricane, will determine if it feels that flow. Still too many variables.
1059. gator23
Quoting 1040. CitikatzSouthFL:

Ok, this may be a silly question, but what happens if Juaquin continues to strengthen...does it do it's own thing and not follow the models projected paths? Could it continue to go more sw or westerly impacting Florida or Georgia? I have noticed that this season a majority of the storms have NOT followed the projected paths and "did their own thing" so to speak. As we seem to be in climate change, could all the previous data be misinterpreting tracks, intensity, etc. as our planet climate changes and evolves making past traks, intensity, and tracks not follow the "norm"? Just a thought. Prayers for all in the Bahamas for a safe time through this storm.




Not likely it will hit Florida. I will say that the degree in forecasting major hurricanes is a little bit more difficult. Also, the setup is a difficult one as well. Hurricanes have always been hard to predict and this blog is littered with people who have been hit by hurricanes they did not expect to be hit by. Watch JQ. if he continues SW with a through Friday morning he cone will likely shift.
1060. Gearsts
Quoting 1050. Tazmanian:




here what the NHC said about that and they saide its a outliner and i 100% agreed with them

from the NHC 11pm update

The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier
by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea.


the NHC is not buying the ECMWF
With Sandy the ECMWF was the outlier early in the forecast and then all of the other models fail and went with to the euro side.

Quoting 1040. CitikatzSouthFL:

Ok, this may be a silly question, but what happens if Juaquin continues to strengthen...does it do it's own thing and not follow the models projected paths? Could it continue to go more sw or westerly impacting Florida or Georgia? I have noticed that this season a majority of the storms have NOT followed the projected paths and "did their own thing" so to speak. As we seem to be in climate change, could all the previous data be misinterpreting tracks, intensity, etc. as our planet climate changes and evolves making past traks, intensity, and tracks not follow the "norm"? Just a thought. Prayers for all in the Bahamas for a safe time through this storm.



It's not as much past models as the current other systems that will interact with this storm.  There are deep ridges that guide the storm and the computer models can see them.  The do use information gathered as similar systems hit similar previous storms however.  This information makes future models more accurate.  The Earth is changing but not enough to change basic weather truths.  There is a very low chance the storm will not turn North because of steering factors like the other systems, the water vapor, wind sheers, etc.  All of the models agree it goes North eventually...  One has it going out to sea but even that is hard to imagine in light of the other models agreement.  The average path takes this nasty spud into the mid-Atlantic and I'd like to believe that one but... it's hard in light of all the others...
1062. JRRP
1063. nash36
Quoting 1048. StormJunkie:



As I posted earlier, which line you gonna walk Joaquin?



Hola man.

Regardless of Joaquin, we're gonna get pummeled with more rain than we can handle this weekend.

Joaquin, with a landfall here or points north of us, would put us in a really bad situation.
"84,512 Cores,"...Well geez, that sure puts my quad core to shame. lol
1065. LostnVB
Quoting 1044. gator23:


That is fake tho


Real one...

Link
1066. Melagoo
1067. gator23
Quoting 1056. Sharkicane:



The words are very real, but the emergency broadcast itself is fake (probably). The words are verbatim from the NWS NOLA office's bulletin on Katrina.

I meant the broadcast. That you tube channel is littered with fake EAS messages. I remember when I was 10 just hours before Andrew hit that I heard the Emergency Broadcast System on the radio. I was with my dad heading to Miami Beach to pick up my grandma. "A powerful category 4 hurricane is expected to make landfall tonight near Miami. Residents should be making final preparations" still gives me chills.
1068. Gearsts
948mb
1069. 7544
Quoting 1059. gator23:


Not likely it will hit Florida. I will say that the degree in forecasting major hurricanes is a little bit more difficult. Also, the setup is a difficult one as well. Hurricanes have always been hard to predict and this blog is littered with people who have been hit by hurricanes they did not expect to be hit by. Watch JQ. if he continues SW with a through Friday morning he cone will likely shift.


looks like its moving more west again at this hour ?
Quoting 1042. 7544:

now andros is in the hurricane watch if this thing now at at 3 get that far west fl might get some effects a cat 4 just east of them ?lets hope jo doesent pull a fast one now as we all await that turn !
Where is your location, 7544?

I've been considering the possibility of strong TS / low HU winds over eastern New Providence .... but not seriously believing it would happen .... a lot will depend on how far the hurricane force winds extend from the centre on the eastern semicircle as the storm begins to move NWward again. If it's big enough, the entire central and much of the NW Bahamas will feel the effects. That 48+ hours of TS force winds is nothing to play with, either.
1071. sar2401
Quoting 1006. StormJunkie:



The "models" haven't fallen out of agreement...They are in relatively good agreement...Minus the Euro

It's Corinne
Vs Tide & Gyre...Or are we already using the new unit? Hard to find info on when it was supposed to/is supposed to go op.



So you think the models got in better agreement since 06z?



1072. gator23
Quoting 1065. LostnVB:



Real one...

Link

Nah that one is fake too. The EAS experience is a youtube channel that creates fake EAS broadcasts. For comedy check out their 1000 nuclear missile ones. The one you link to mentions "counties" Louisiana has parishes.

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 03:08:30Z
Coordinates: 23.650N 73.100W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.1 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,748 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 947.3 mb (27.98 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 150° at 3 kts (From the SSE at 3.5 mph)
Air Temp: 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Dew Pt: 7.4°C (45.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 kts (6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 kts (20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (0.00 in/hr)

Intensifying and moving SW
Quoting 1057. StormJunkie:



Was just thinking it sure would be nice if you were around! Thanks! So is Surge running the data now? Or are they still in buyoff?


That is the only update I have seen, however the upgraded GEFS is scheduled to go into operation in a couple of weeks so it must be done or very close. The ensemble members of the new GEFS run at the resolution the GFS was at about 2 years ago, so they need the additional computer power.
1075. ncstorm
Quoting 1054. will45:

the slow speed will make the rains tremendous and the ground is already saturated here in NC


Here in my area I don't know if funds came in to the county from the state but they have been cutting down trees here for about two weeks away from the power lines on most of the roads..

but if Joaquin comes in to NC, it will all be for nothing as the power lines will be laying on the side of the road

1076. gator23
Quoting 1069. 7544:



looks like its moving more west again at this hour ?

SouthwestLink
Quoting 1062. JRRP:



117kt flight-level, 107kt surface.
all wind speeds are in KM/H

Quoting 1071. sar2401:

So you think the models got in better agreement since 06z?






I'm not saying "better"...I'm just saying the Lbar and the Euro are the only ones showing something other than a move to the N and then a hook back to the W. If you meant pin point landfall locations, that's not even in my playbook yet. They need to sort out the Left vs right camp first.
1080. LostnVB
Quoting 1072. gator23:


Nah that one is fake too. The EAS experience is a youtube channel that creates fake EAS broadcasts. For comedy check out their 1000 nuclear missile ones. The one you link to mentions "counties" Louisiana has parishes.


I thought one of them was real. Oh well, the point is to GTFO when it gets bad.
Quoting 1055. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

stronger it gets the more likely an enhance period of fast forward motion due poleward north with a left turn as it cycles down then xtrop transition ne ward somewhere sse from the western end of lake Ontario
This looks like one of those "Canadian" hurricanes .... the ones that maintain identity until they've brought mayhem to some poor unsuspecting Canadian locale... say Toronto ....

Quoting 1062. JRRP:


Very symmetrical storm ....
Quoting 1061. Netflyer:


It's not as much past models as the current other systems that will interact with this storm.  There are deep ridges that guide the storm and the computer models can see them.  The do use information gathered as similar systems hit similar previous storms however.  This information makes future models more accurate.  The Earth is changing but not enough to change basic weather truths.  There is a very low chance the storm will not turn North because of steering factors like the other systems, the water vapor, wind sheers, etc.  All of the models agree it goes North eventually...  One has it going out to sea but even that is hard to imagine in light of the other models agreement.  The average path takes this nasty spud into the mid-Atlantic and I'd like to believe that one but... it's hard in light of all the others...
Thanks for the responses.  Just been having a really funky feeling about this storm.  Hopping it takes a hard right turn out to sea...only time will tell.  This could be really bad if it continues to intensify and makes landfall.  
Quoting 1077. TropicalAnalystwx13:


117kt flight-level, 107kt surface.


Missed the next ones.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 113 kts* (130.0 mph*)
Is it just me or Joaquin is a FORMIDABLE storm based on the 2013-2014-2015 standard??

It really looks like a 2010 strom (EARL)
Dropsonde just reported 121 mph surface; intensification obviously still ongoing.
Quoting 933. NasBahMan:



Next high tide for San Salvador is 10 am tomorrow.
thanks, Well I must say this is starting to shape up into a bad scenario. Its moving slower,gone further S and gotten stronger earlier than expected all about to hammer a chain of low elevation islands.
Glad you build concrete homes . Hopes and prayers for my neighbors to the East. Stay safe.
The recon data seems to show Joaquin straddling the line between C3 and C4 @ approx 115kt and 945 mb... and the models at the current 100kt data are strengthening it another 5-25 kts or so on average, which, interpolated, would make it as high as a C5 at around 72hrs. Yikes.
1088. miamivu
Hurricane warnings for NW Bahamas. Not Tropical Storm warnings. So if the hurricane-force wind field is 35 miles from center...the warnings would presuppose the center of the storm would be within that range of the northwestern most islands. If that were the case, wouldn't the tropical-storm force wind field be over West Palm Beach? (I'm assuming 90 miles.) Who puts up the Bahamian warnings? I'm just having a Floyd moment; were a model or two to hiccup tomorrow west; if the storm passes 75 west, etc., it would, unfortunately, require at least watches for the east coast of florida. They would have to do that, wouldn't they?
Quoting 1081. BahaHurican:

This looks like one of those "Canadian" hurricanes .... the ones that maintain identity until they've brought mayhem to some poor unsuspecting Canadian locale... say Toronto ....

Very symmetrical storm ....
forecast is already calling for gusty conditions and rain chances increasing beginning sat until tuseday of next week
Quoting 1087. wilsonbiggs:

The recon data seems to show Joaquin straddling the line between C3 and C4 @ approx 115kt and 945 mb... and the models at the current 100kt data are strengthening it another 5-25 kts or so on average, which, interpolated, would make it as high as a C5 at around 72hrs. Yikes.

I'm a doofus. That's flight level, not surface. My bad. Still scary.
1091. Gearsts
1092. vis0
image host~2hrs ago, last till this ~7am here the album link http://imgbox.com/g/UYynx5Jh27 aka 2015Joaquin_Sep30_Oct01 AM hrs EDT
no more uploads till pre sunrise FTGs ~7Am, wanna catchup with the blog
Quoting 1028. FunnelVortex:



That is absolutely surreal and horrifying!

As one who heard it IRL, I can assure you that it was both.
Quoting 1083. neonlazer:



Missed the next ones.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 113 kts* (130.0 mph*)

Usually don't trust surface values higher than the flight-level winds.
1095. Gearsts
120mph
Quoting 1077. TropicalAnalystwx13:


117kt flight-level, 107kt surface.
This is showing 45 - 50 kt winds over Crooked Island and Acklins, and near hurricane force right at Samana Cays ..... looks like there's no way San Salvador is going to get out of this without a hurricane strike....
1097. FOREX
TWC still has reality shows on. Amazing and very irresponsible. There should be an alternative to them.
1098. sar2401
Quoting 1057. StormJunkie:



Was just thinking it sure would be nice if you were around! Thanks! So is Surge running the data now? Or are they still in buyoff?
Dang. 2.8 petaflops. I remember it was fairly recently when we had the first computer to break 1 petaflop, IBM, I think. For those that don't know what a petaflop is, it's a quadrillion floating point operations per second. Just amazing they are at 2.8 now. You have to wonder what kind of power and programming it will take not to have the kinds of model failures we've had this season?
1099. LBAR
For what it's worth, I've noticed HUGE ant mounds here in central South Carolina since yesterday. Not normal ant hill...huge ant MOUNDS like I have never seen before. I know some folks on here mentioned that ants can be an indicator of a hurricane, and many of those models show a hard left turn into South Carolina....*gulp*
Quoting 1094. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Usually don't trust surface values higher than the flight-level winds.

Ah, good to know! Thanks
1101. LostnVB
Quoting 1081. BahaHurican:

This looks like one of those "Canadian" hurricanes .... the ones that maintain identity until they've brought mayhem to some poor unsuspecting Canadian locale... say Toronto ....

Very symmetrical storm ....


There is a poor soul sitting in the Canadian Hurricane Center in some uncharted outpost, halfway between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. He is busy telegraphing the latest coordinates to the mainland. "Dot Dot Dash...Joaquin's gonna be a big un eh?"
Quoting 1060. Gearsts:

With Sandy the ECMWF was the outlier early in the forecast and then all of the other models fail and went with to the euro side.


Any other major models shifting towards the ECMWF forecast track in the 0000Z runs?


good news we do not see the eye anymore
Quoting 1084. CaribBoy:

Is it just me or Joaquin is a FORMIDABLE storm based on the 2013-2014-2015 standard??

It really looks like a 2010 strom (EARL)
Best looking system of its size since possibly Irene.
So it looks like NHC is now embargoing RECON data like they do with ATCF data. They should at least admit it instead of using "communications problems".

My opinion.
Quoting 1084. CaribBoy:

Is it just me or Joaquin is a FORMIDABLE storm based on the 2013-2014-2015 standard??

It really looks like a 2010 strom (EARL)
Joaquin became the King of the season, and turning it, for good or for bad, an unforgettable hurricane season. With a rather pretty active CV season with lots of weak storms, and two majors. allo of the happening in "The super el Niño Year"...
This is shaping up fast, notice in the spiral banding the horizontal lines that signify truley well organized storms.  It is not just the cat, but the structure.  This storm looks like it will last.
1108. miamivu
Quoting 1097. FOREX:

TWC still has reality shows on. Amazing and very irresponsible. There should be an alternative to them.

They have a real knack for doing this...often when hurricane conditions are approaching...lol. Unbelievable, really.
1109. ncstorm
Quoting 1099. LBAR:

For what it's worth, I've noticed HUGE ant mounds here in central South Carolina since yesterday. Not normal ant hill...huge ant MOUNDS like I have never seen before. I know some folks on here mentioned that ants can be an indicator of a hurricane, and many of those models show a hard left turn into South Carolina....*gulp*


Sign of Heavy Rain..
Quoting 1104. BahaHurican:

Best looking system of its size since possibly Irene.


Yes... I was really getting tired of tiny storms like Danny.
1112. AySz88
Glad to see that the recon plane is still OK.

JQ's asymmetric "pinched off eye" look is reminding me of Hurricane Ike ('08) just after final landfall in Cuba. Its internal structure on radar was looking great coming off the coast...but then it developed this big asymmetry in convection and that totally screwed up the storm. ( Animation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuK5MNhXR0o ) Any such potential luck here?
Quoting 1103. hurricanes2018:



good news we do not see the eye anymore
Ever heard of an EWRC
1114. Gearsts
Fail

Takes 24 hours for 952
The eye looks like at 73.5 west now, that's quick.
1116. flsky
In this graphic, it seems to be following the forecast points exactly.

Quoting 1076. gator23:


SouthwestLink
Quoting 1088. miamivu:

Hurricane warnings for NW Bahamas. Not Tropical Storm warnings. So if the hurricane-force wind field is 35 miles from center...the warnings would presuppose the center of the storm would be within that range of the northwestern most islands. If that were the case, wouldn't the tropical-storm force wind field be over West Palm Beach? (I'm assuming 90 miles.) Who puts up the Bahamian warnings? I'm just having a Floyd moment; were a model or two to hiccup tomorrow west; if the storm passes 75 west, etc., it would, unfortunately, require at least watches for the east coast of florida. They would have to do that, wouldn't they?
No they wouldn't have to. The track of the storm is forecast to keep the hurricane force winds along the eastern bank / range of the islands. However, the warning system puts up warnings in sections, e.g. Northwestern Bahamas. All the islands in this group are included in the warning area, even if hurricane force winds are not anticipated. So even though Joaquin is expected to turn north well before it reaches Grand Bahama, that island will still be included in the warning area.
1118. meiscat
Quoting 1114. Gearsts:

Fail


Isn't the grid too coarse to fully render the storm on the model?
Quoting 1098. sar2401:

Dang. 2.8 petaflops. I remember it was fairly recently when we had the first computer to break 1 petaflop, IBM, I think. For those that don't know what a petaflop is, it's a quadrillion floating point operations per second. Just amazing they are at 2.8 now. You have to wonder what kind of power and programming it will take not to have the kinds of model failures we've had this season?


ECMWF is getting a 16 Pflop in 2016...But the system will not be entirely dedicated to weather forecasting. Surge and Luna...They will be fully dedicated to forecasting.
If you say "petaflop" too loud, you might get arrested.
;)
The satellite presentation isn't quite as healthy as a few hours ago, with recon reporting an eye open to the north. And no, that doesn't mean that Joaquin is beginning a weakening trend--the data supports just the opposite. But its presentation on both conventional and microwave imagery still indicates that Joaquin is being affected by moderate northerly shear, largely offset by a 60kt equatorward outflow channel. By this time tomorrow, shear should have lowered under 10 knots and a poleward outflow channel should begin to take shape. It really would not surprise me if the NHC forecast was still conservative. The only caveats being inner core changes that cannot be forecast in advance and the possibility of upwelling as the storm drifts west-southwest.
Definition of a hurricane warning::

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
00Z GFS initiating at 996mb. Useless.
The 00z GFS initializes Joaquin at 990mbar. Does this normally have an effect on the accuracy of its forecast?
heading to the boilers time to flip the switch
1126. LostnVB
Quoting 1119. StormJunkie:



ECMWF is getting a 16 Pflop in 2016...But the system will not be entirely dedicated to weather forecasting. Surge and Luna...They will be fully dedicated to forecasting.
Quoting 1098. sar2401:

Dang. 2.8 petaflops. I remember it was fairly recently when we had the first computer to break 1 petaflop, IBM, I think. For those that don't know what a petaflop is, it's a quadrillion floating point operations per second. Just amazing they are at 2.8 now. You have to wonder what kind of power and programming it will take not to have the kinds of model failures we've had this season?


Garbage In, Garbage Out. Doesn't matter how many petaflops you're turning.
1127. Gearsts
Quoting 1118. meiscat:


Isn't the grid too coarse to fully render the storm on the model?


Yes, but it is a futile exercise to get people to understand it.
1129. Gearsts
Quoting 1124. Sharkicane:

The 00z GFS initializes Joaquin at 990mbar. Does this normally have an effect on the accuracy of its forecast?
965mb
1130. LBAR
From the Myrtle Beach, SC/Wilmington, NC NWS discussion...holy cow!

A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON PWAT ANALYSIS WILL BE DRIVEN BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...DIRECTED RIGHT FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN. IT IS THIS MOIST CONVEYOR...A
"TROPICAL FIREHOSE" TO TAKE THE TERM FROM A SPENES MESSAGE 5 YEARS
AGO...THAT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT
LATE THIS WEEK.


RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS SATURATED LOW LEVEL
FLOW GETS ANGLED BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS...LIFTED ATOP THE STALLED
BOUNDARY...AND WRUNG OUT LOCALLY. PWATS WILL APPROACH 2.25 TO 2.5
INCHES...AND AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES BOTH DUE TO THE
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING 200MB JET
STREAK TO THE NW...RAINFALL WILL BECOME HEAVIER...AND CATEGORICAL
RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAMPING DOWN TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY DUE TO THE TEMPORAL
EXTENT. ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE EXCLUSIVE FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...ALTHOUGH THAT MOISTURE WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A HUGE ROLE
INTO THE QPF
. WPC 1-3 DAY QPF MATCHES QUITE WELL WITH THE LOCAL
STORMTOTAL GRID...AND EXPECT 3-5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE BEYOND THIS SHORT TERM. OF COURSE THIS IS A
BASIN AVERAGE...AND MUCH HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES.
1131. 7544
Quoting 1115. ElConando:

The eye looks like at 73.5 west now, that's quick.


yep looks like the race is on will jo speed up at dmax tonight and beat the trof
1132. Drakoen
Make sure you are using the full resolution GFS when looking at the pressure.

The GFS grid may not be fine enough to fully capture the minimum pressure, but that's what the hurricane models are for. That doesn't mean that the GFS forecast isn't valid.
Gotta give the HRWF love! They nailed the intensity again on this storm
Peculiar presentation here as convective wall collapses at onset of island and convection seems to warm rapidly thereabout. And notice to the west, convection sustains and even in some cases increases. Seeding experiments??

Link
Quoting 1131. 7544:



yep looks like the race is on will jo speed up at dmax tonight and beat the trof


A couple of things. First, d max and d min will have minimal effect on an organized tropical cyclone and second, it is not going to beat the trof. I doubt it'll get past 76.5 W before turning north.
Quoting 1126. LostnVB:



Garbage In, Garbage Out. Doesn't matter how many petaflops you're turning.
Thing is, the data is getting better too. Especially if we do see the new scatterometer come online a couple years from now ...
Gotta love seeders. As if we can disrupt something so powerful.
9/30/2015. Hurricane Joaquin, a Category 3 Hurricane with 115 mph winds. The eye of Hurricane Joaquin is moving southwest toward the Bahamas and could become a Category 4 Hurricane near or over the Bahamas.Link
1140. BayFog
Joaquin has been doing an interesting stair-step motion of late: south, then west, then south, then west. I suppose this will come to a halt once it rounds a ridge the forecasters say is there and the approaching upper trough begins to have its effect. Then the question is, will there be a cutoff low (seems likely) and will that cutoff impart enough influence to bring Joaquin toward the coast? Or will the frontal boundary have the final say and send Joaquin out to sea as the Euro model has been indicating?
Quoting 1134. SandyTimes10:

Peculiar presentation here as convective wall collapses at onset of island and convection seems to warm rapidly thereabout. And notice to the west, convection sustains and even in some cases increases. Seeding experiments??

Link


Hey, were'd u get that sat loop thanks.
Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ugh.




Yep.
Oh my...I think it's going out to sea. Heading NE at 66hrs.
this gfs may be ots
Looks like Kate not too far behind code red on the nhc site
Quoting 1141. chrisdscane:



Hey, were'd u get that sat loop thanks.

Link
1147. AySz88

Quoting 1119. StormJunkie:

ECMWF is getting a 16 Pflop in 2016...But the system will not be entirely dedicated to weather forecasting. Surge and Luna...They will be fully dedicated to forecasting.

Quoting 1098. sar2401:

Dang. 2.8 petaflops. I remember it was fairly recently when we had the first computer to break 1 petaflop, IBM, I think. For those that don't know what a petaflop is, it's a quadrillion floating point operations per second. Just amazing they are at 2.8 now. You have to wonder what kind of power and programming it will take not to have the kinds of model failures we've had this season?


Quoting 1126. LostnVB:


Garbage In, Garbage Out. Doesn't matter how many petaflops you're turning.


Yeah, I really wish the weather community would push a little harder for new tech to gather data to ingest into the models. Every-30-min GOES seems like it can be improved so much...maybe tons of narrow-field-of-view cubesats that can infer winds from video analysis of cloud movements. (Or, drones everywhere!)
Quoting 1143. wilsongti45:

Oh my...I think it's going out to sea. Heading NE at 66hrs.

Better to find it out now, before the NE coast hype machine gets into full swing ....
Quoting 1144. chrisdscane:

this gfs may be ots


It's gonna make the Sandy turn! I HAVE FAITH!@$#!#
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 3:43Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 3:09:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°39'N 73°09'W (23.65N 73.15W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,677m (8,783ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 117kts (From the SW at ~ 134.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 3:04:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 19kts (From the W at 22mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center
Massive jump east by the 00Z GFS at 72 hours from the 18Z. A good couple hundred miles. Although initiation was off.

1152. ncstorm
damn the Euro is going to look like a rockstar..

GFS looks OTS..
lol gfs
Quoting 1144. chrisdscane:

this gfs may be ots

Still moving NE at 78hrs.
Quoting 1152. ncstorm:

damn the Euro is going to look like a rockstar..

GFS looks OTS..


Not so fast.....

Look aloft. It's coming back.

1158. nash36
Quoting 1148. BahaHurican:

Better to find it out now, before the NE coast hype machine gets into full swing ....


Meant in jest....

Watch the 00z Euro hook left, thereby switching with the GFS. That would blow up the internet.
Quoting 1154. wilsongti45:


Still moving NE at 78hrs.


It's turning NW!
1161. Drakoen
Big shift on the GFS run to the northeast. As I mentioned earlier, if Joaquin maintains itself east of the forecast points the track would shift to the northeast.
GFS back with Sandy hook up the Chesapeake. Ugh. Rats.
1163. BayFog
Interesting to see that the eyewall is open to the northwest, indicating still significant northerly wind shear and even some dry air intrusion.
Quoting 1157. 1900hurricane:

Look aloft. It's coming back.




It definitely is, and it looks to not be pretty either..
Quoting 1158. nash36:



Meant in jest....

Watch the 00z Euro hook left, thereby switching with the GFS. That would blow up the internet.


Exactly what I was thinking, they switch tracks LOL
Quoting 1143. wilsongti45:

Oh my...I think it's going out to sea. Heading NE at 66hrs.

Where is it 24 hours later?
The icing on the cake will be if the ECMWF shifts west.

EDIT: Ah, nash already said it. :P
Quoting 1155. tropicfreak:



Not so fast.....




So the hype begins? Excellent.
Even if the 0z gfs does swing back west at the end of that run, thats still a big jump towards what the euro was showing. makes that solution quite possible in the end.
1170. Drakoen
Quoting 1165. nrtiwlnvragn:



Exactly what I was thinking, they switch tracks LOL


I think the upper air data will help them converge on a track somewhere between the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.
Well if the left turn back to CONUS must be, at least there'll be a better chance of weakening as it'll likely come off from peak intensity of EWRC. Not to mention the increasing SW shear, cooler water, and lower 500-750mb humidity. But the amount of water it'll push in it's wake will be massive, even rolling in as a low end category 1.
Quoting 1163. BayFog:

Interesting to see that the eyewall is open to the northwest, indicating still significant northerly wind shear and even some dry air intrusion.


Wind shear driven dry air has been pesky for this one for sure. If not for the dry air, I have little doubt we would already be looking at a very clear eye wall on the way to 4 or 5.
Quoting 1161. Drakoen:

Big shift on the GFS run to the northeast. As I mentioned earlier, if Joaquin maintains itself east of the forecast points the track would shift to the northeast.

Yeppers
Quoting 1166. Barefootontherocks:

Where is it 24 hours later?




Sound the alarms!
1175. Gearsts
Quoting 1139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ugh.
???
Quoting 1170. Drakoen:



I think the upper air data will help them converge on a track somewhere between the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.


Gonzo flys a little further North on the early morning mission, starting in a few hours.


114 hours GFS landfall near NYC.
Rats, I want to go to sleep, but I got to see if the GFS goes back west or not. The suspense!
I feel like the cat with the matchsticks in my eyelids ..... just trying to hold on long enough to see those 00z runs .....


Guess what will be on TV tomorrow?
1182. Drakoen
Could be another Sandy event.

I fully expect the rest of the 00z suite to follow the GFS and shift somewhat to the northeast.


At 11:PM the NHC has put Andros Island and the Bimini Islands under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. So what does that tell you. And how far are the Bimini islands from the SE coast of Florida. Yea, see what I mean. If the Bimini Islands were to receive Hurricane force conditions, then what would Miami Beach and Ft. lauderdale receive? Yessss. We aim to get to the bottom of this new development and find out what the heck is really going on with this Hurricane. The bottom line, how much longer will Joaquin continue to move west before it makes that turn to the NW and North?
Sound the hype alarm!!

1185. ncstorm
Basically the 00z GFS just trolled every weather Geek..LOL

1186. ncstorm
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago

Why no landfall w/GFS thru 72-hrs & diff w/previous runs? No trough interaction to capture.
What if the 5am update should offer quite the model
Shift. A strengthening storm cat3 or greater beating a ridge further south by just a few hours means big racing turn Ots may not be so certain as masters is calling for but then again he's the doctor. The size and increased favor ability for continued strengthening in the nxt 36 hrs should lead to Joaquin influencing steering currents much more then expected a big right turn seems hard to believe. Joaquin had the hedge hog look last night @ this time and is emulating a much larger version tonight. The early morning hours will show a scary hurricane bearing down the central Bahamas.
West side of storm warming.
JQ seems like Sandy 2.0 on the latest GFS run.
Quoting 1170. Drakoen:



I think the upper air data will help them converge on a track somewhere between the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.


At this point, that seems reasonable. Still hard to believe the EMCWF will waiver from the hard right turn it's been showing.
Quoting 1181. wilsongti45:



Guess what will be on TV tomorrow?


Is that some sort of sick joke, a 500 mi shift north?
1192. redux
980 corresponds to a cat 1, right?
Watch the GFS loving NHC adjust the points back northeast again. LMAO
1194. ncstorm
So the GFS disregarded the trough..

Can it do that?? (Deep Blue Sea Reference)
1195. Gearsts
lol
1196. gator23
Quoting 1184. VAbeachhurricanes:

Sound the hype alarm!!




I just dont see this. if it misses the trough the high will build in shunting in inland.
1197. Melagoo
Quoting 1178. chrisdscane:




NYC direct hit? ... what are the possibilities for that ... I was thinking quite a bit more south than that ...
Not so fast. 120 hours has it skirting Long Island and heading OTS/. Could the Euro be correct afterall??? Timing is everything.
Quoting 1191. Gator13126:



Is that some sort of sick joke, a 500 mi shift north?


The Immaculate Deception of meteorology.
1200. Gearsts
Quoting 1183. HurriHistory:



At 11:PM the NHC has put Andros Island and the Bimini Islands under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. So what does that tell you. And how far are the Bimini islands from the SE coast of Florida. Yea, see what I mean. If the Bimini Islands were to receive Hurricane force conditions, then what would Miami Beach and Ft. lauderdale receive? Yessss. We aim to get to the bottom of this new development and find out what the heck is really going on with this Hurricane. The bottom line, how much longer will Joaquin continue to move west before it makes that turn to the NW and North?
1. NHC didn't do it. The Bahamas government did. It's a CYA measure.
Again:
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


At least reason based on the NHC's definition of their own terms. Sheesh.
I've been lurking for a day now but this has gone too far. The GFS is trash, how do they put in a pressure of 987 ???
Quoting 1194. ncstorm:

So the GFS disregarded the trough..

Can it do that?? (Deep Blue Sea Reference)


I don't think it disregarded the trough...I think it sees a less tilted trough? But that's getting a bit out of my league.
1204. ncstorm
From Dr. Maue..

1205. sar2401
Quoting 1201. BahaHurican:

1. NHC didn't do it. The Bahamas government did. It's a CYA measure.
Again:
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


At least reason based on the NHC's definition of their own terms. Sheesh.
I was about to direct him to your post #1117. The amount of assumptions being made tonight is really amazing.
1206. meiscat
Quoting 1202. czechoslovakia:

I've been lurking for a day now but this has gone too far. The GFS is trash, how do they put in a pressure of 987 ???

The grid that the model runs on only has a finite resolution. Unless the center of the storm is perfectly on a grid point, the storm's lowest pressure will not be used in the calculations, resulting in what seems to be an erroneous pressure.
1207. FOREX
Quoting 1186. ncstorm:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago

Why no landfall w/GFS thru 72-hrs & diff w/previous runs? No trough interaction to capture.
huh?
1208. Gearsts

vs
Only go out to 60hrs-72hrs on this Hurricane. Dynamics are changing. I'm still inline with the Euro with a blend of the GFS. Right now it will be close to where both the EURO and the GFS has it in 3 days (about 400 miles SE of NC)
1210. Gearsts
Quoting 1207. FOREX:

huh?

He didn't wait for the run to end lol
Quoting 1206. meiscat:


The grid that the model runs on only has a finite resolution. Unless the center of the storm is perfectly on a grid point, the storm's lowest pressure will not be used in the calculations, resulting in what seems to be an erroneous pressure.


Thank you I was stunned, I'm going to lay off the predictions until 9 pm tomorrow
Quoting 1182. Drakoen:

Could be another Sandy event.

I fully expect the rest of the 00z suite to follow the GFS and shift somewhat to the northeast.


You can't be serious. Hopefully its not a major when it landfalls if its at NE.
Quoting 1199. wilsongti45:



The Immaculate Deception of meteorology.


We've had Nor'Easters with Cat 1. pressure before, but everyone will freak out at the word Hurricane
1214. meiscat
Quoting 1211. czechoslovakia:



Thank you I was stunned, I'm going to lay off the predictions until 9 pm tomorrow

:P
Good idea.
I've given up on guessing where it's going to go until it actually starts moving north
1215. Gearsts
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago State College, PA
GFS to me, unless ECMWF shifts TOWARD IT means the escape idea of the ECMWF is likely to win out. GFS starting to adjust toward ECMWF
Quoting 1212. SandyCheeks13:



You can't be serious. Hopefully its not a major when it landfalls if its at NE.

No. Chances diminish significantly that it is a major north of 35 degrees latitude. (Roughly OBX of NC)
And Still The Reigning Heavyweight Champion of Models..................................The ECMWF?
1218. ncstorm
Quoting 1213. Gator13126:



We've had Nor'Easters with Cat 1. pressure before, but everyone will freak out at the word Hurricane

Terminology is King for folks who don't have an interest in weather like us. And that's 99.9% of the population.
Quoting 1204. ncstorm:

From Dr. Maue..


Joaquin ate the trough for breakfast.
Added image:
1221. FOREX
Quoting 1199. wilsongti45:



The Immaculate Deception of meteorology.
Next GFS will have it making Landfall in Jacksonville.
oh jeez, this place is going to make a mauseoleum look like a episode of my little pony if this thing goes OTS
Left turn Clyde!
1224. Drakoen
Even though the GFS shows a lack of trough interaction it seems only a modest shift to the west in the track could easily put the trough back in play. Still a very precarious situation.
Quoting 1217. HurricaneHunterJoe:

And Still The Reigning Heavyweight Champion of Models..................................The ECMWF?


The ECMWF has it making a hard right out in to the central Atlantic. The two still aren't even close to comparable in my opinion. Now if the ECMWF shifts back to show a brush with the NE coast, we may be making progress.
1226. Gearsts
I hope the ECMWF wins and takes all ots.
1227. ncstorm
Imagine the NHC watching that GFS run..

and then adding vodka to their coffee..

Quoting 1178. chrisdscane:


God help us if THIS happens!
That is why the cone is big and noone in NHC wants to drop a watch yet. But a cat3 into south or north Carolina could pan out. That would happen now with a 48hr notice. By tomorrow night the mets will go full blown on a destination of this storm.

Quoting 1213. Gator13126:



We've had Nor'Easters with Cat 1. pressure before, but everyone will freak out at the word Hurricane
It's going somewhere, just give it a few more days. Maybe Iceland? Greenland? Melt more glaciers?
Quoting 1229. NYBizBee:

That is why the cone is big and noone in NHC wants to drop a watch yet. But a cat3 into south or north Carolina could pan out. That would happen now with a 48hr notice. By tomorrow night the mets will go full blown on a destination of this storm.




Interestingly enough, that's about where we were 25 years ago...WE didn't expect to know where a storm was going unless it was within 24-48 hrs out.
Quoting 1227. ncstorm:

Imagine the NHC watching that GFS run..

and then adding vodka to their coffee..




I was about to say....I need a beer lol. This is ridiculous.
Quoting 1226. Gearsts:

I hope the ECMWF wins and takes all ots.


THIS!
1235. JRRP
Its NYC?! WHAT!?
1237. Gearsts
TropicalAnalystwx13 That is the NHC office after the coffee with vodka.
Quoting 1235. JRRP:




Missing us :(
1239. sar2401
Quoting 1206. meiscat:


The grid that the model runs on only has a finite resolution. Unless the center of the storm is perfectly on a grid point, the storm's lowest pressure will not be used in the calculations, resulting in what seems to be an erroneous pressure.
Good explanation why we often see these initial pressure differences. It really doesn't make any difference to the run, but some people just won't believe that.

Quite a shift on the part of the GFS. I making the assumption the left hook into NJ/NY is a part of the overall shift toward the ECMWF. We won't really know that for a couple more model runs, but the eastward shift in the early part of the run is pretty apparent compared to any earlier runs. One thing about Joaquin and the models is we won't be arguing about a miss of 50 miles. It's going to be hundreds of miles before it's over with one model or a whole slew of others. Quite a day today.
Let's see where the HWRF goes.

1241. ncstorm
00z UKMET

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2015



HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 73.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 01.10.2015 24.1N 73.1W STRONG

12UTC 01.10.2015 23.0N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2015 22.7N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2015 22.8N 74.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2015 23.7N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.10.2015 25.1N 73.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.10.2015 27.5N 71.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2015 30.6N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.10.2015 33.6N 69.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2015 36.2N 69.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.10.2015 39.2N 69.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.10.2015 42.2N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.10.2015 45.2N 61.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
No start on the ECMWF as yet?
1243. Gearsts
Quoting 1235. JRRP:


I would post the cat but that pic is at 180hours and the mods have there eye on me.
Quoting 1241. ncstorm:

00z UKMET

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2015



HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 73.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 01.10.2015 24.1N 73.1W STRONG

12UTC 01.10.2015 23.0N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2015 22.7N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2015 22.8N 74.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2015 23.7N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.10.2015 25.1N 73.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.10.2015 27.5N 71.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2015 30.6N 69.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.10.2015 33.6N 69.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2015 36.2N 69.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.10.2015 39.2N 69.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.10.2015 42.2N 66.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.10.2015 45.2N 61.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
Right shift.
Quoting 1228. FLWaterFront:

God help us if THIS happens!


Why would the stronger winds be on the left side of the storm over
New Jersey?
1246. ncstorm
UKMET only goes out 144 hours but its taking a NE direction as well..does it sling shot it back to the NE..shrugs..
1247. sar2401
Quoting 1236. SandyCheeks13:

Its NYC?! WHAT!?
If you look at the whole model run, the GFS is shifting east toward the ECMWF. I believe the hook back to NJ/NY is just where the shift east hasn't been completed. No need to panic about the Northeast hit yet.
1248. JRRP
Quoting 1238. CaribBoy:



Missing us :(

EURO and now GFS are showing something at that time
Quoting 1181. wilsongti45:



Guess what will be on TV tomorrow?
TWC will be running a documentary all night about skunk hunting in the Colorado Rockies.



thought these might be appropriate
1251. Gearsts
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago
After consultation w/my cats, decided to post the GFS 00z forecast -- just to illustrate complexity of forecast


Small hope of another Gonzalo... The track needs to shift SW though
Same thing happened last night after dark... the west side of the storm collapsed, as did the forming eye, it seems (it grows during DMIN and fails during DMAX... interesting). To my mind for the same reason we weren't getting R/T data from the HH (this seems to happen a lot in the Bay of Campeche, too, while half the Mexican radar stations go down, as well)... they're banging away at it pretty good.

Good luck to them with that... anything that helps keep it from going "monster" or hitting the East Coast is great tech in my book, even if it screws up the computer projections big-time (and seemingly, most of the time). :-)

Jo
Quoting 1247. sar2401:

If you look at the whole model run, the GFS is shifting east toward the ECMWF. I believe the hook back to NJ/NY is just where the shift east hasn't been completed. No need to panic about the Northeast hit yet.


Bit premature to make such a statement. I think we should just wait on the 00z Euro before we over-speculate.
Quoting 1248. JRRP:


EURO and now GFS are showing something at that time


Now I want it further South and West !!
1256. miamivu
Quoting 1117. BahaHurican:

No they wouldn't have to. The track of the storm is forecast to keep the hurricane force winds along the eastern bank / range of the islands. However, the warning system puts up warnings in sections, e.g. Northwestern Bahamas. All the islands in this group are included in the warning area, even if hurricane force winds are not anticipated. So even though Joaquin is expected to turn north well before it reaches Grand Bahama, that island will still be included in the warning area.

Appreciate the clarification. Thank you.
1257. Drakoen
lol the UKMET 00z has shifted way east now heading to the Canadian Maritimes. Perhaps the models are starting to see what the ECWMF has been seeing.
1258. sar2401
Quoting 1231. StormJunkie:



Interestingly enough, that's about where we were 25 years ago...WE didn't expect to know where a storm was going unless it was within 24-48 hrs out.
Yes, we've made some real progress this season. :-)
Dont put much stock in the newest GFS runs. It initialized the storm at 986mb, not the 952 it actually is. The stronger the system, the more likely it is to feel the trough and make the westward/left turn into the east coast. Barring a total collapse of the trough.
Quoting 1230. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It's going somewhere, just give it a few more days. Maybe Iceland? Greenland? Melt more glaciers?
six boilers running hot ready to rock and roll
1261. Gearsts
I was going to sleep but waiting for the ECMWF is more important.
Who needs sleep for work at 5am!
I always wondered if they're still seeding without our knowledge.
1264. Gearsts
Quoting 1252. CaribBoy:



Small hope of another Gonzalo... The track needs to shift SW though
Quoting 1259. RyanSperrey:

Dont put much stock in the newest GFS runs. It initialized the storm at 986mb, not the 952 it actually is. The stronger the system, the more likely it is to feel the trough and make the westward/left turn into the east coast. Barring a total collapse of the trough.



965 actually
Quoting 1251. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago
After consultation w/my cats, decided to post the GFS 00z forecast -- just to illustrate complexity of forecast
I wunder what the cat said
Quoting 1265. chrisdscane:




965 actually


What's 13mb between friends anyways...
Quoting 1225. StormJunkie:



The ECMWF has it making a hard right out in to the central Atlantic. The two still aren't even close to comparable in my opinion. Now if the ECMWF shifts back to show a brush with the NE coast, we may be making progress.


I was just thinking who would be right at the long term....landfall or out to sea from 4-5days out
1269. sar2401
Quoting 1254. tropicfreak:



Bit premature to make such a statement. I think we should just wait on the 00z Euro before we over-speculate.
I don't need the new Euro to understand what happened with the GFS. It was a significant shift, and I don't believe that happened just to hook back into the Northeast. We'll see what all the upcoming model runs say but I do believe this will be the beginning of an east shift with all of them.
Quoting 1261. Gearsts:

I was going to sleep but waiting for the ECMWF is more important.
Who needs sleep for work at 5am!
Who needs work at 5 a.m.??? I'm hoping if we're really going to have hurricane conditions tomorrow I won't have to go in. However, I bet we'll have to go and sit around until it's rainy and windy enough to scare the bosses, after which I'll have to drive home in scads of pouring rain through flooded streets - and when I get home the power will be out.

Okay, worst case this happens. Hopefully I'll still be in bed when they make an announcement .... lol ...
1271. Gearsts
Ugly looking Cat 3 with no eye.
1272. Dakster
I see we have a MAJOR Hurricane to track now...

This could change the models too. Hopefully the G-IV data is loaded in and helps out the models as well. At this rate the entire eastern seaboard is going to need to board up.
the way these model initialize storms is a bit overrated, most the time its feedback issues. the atmospheric imprint between a cat1 and a cat3 arent very different
1274. ncstorm
Regardless of Joaquin makes landfall or not, SC/NC and parts of the Mid Atlantic is going to get large amounts of rain from it..



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1269. sar2401:

I don't need the new Euro to understand what happened with the GFS. It was a significant shift, and I don't believe that happened just to hook back into the Northeast. We'll see what all the upcoming model runs say but I do believe this will be the beginning of an east shift with all of them.



It does seem like it is about that time frame where we should see the final shifts taking place. I wouldn't expect another major one.
1277. SSL1441
Quoting 1272. Dakster:

I see we have a MAJOR Hurricane to track now...

This could change the models too. Hopefully the G-IV data is loaded in and helps out the models as well. At this rate the entire eastern seaboard is going to need to board up.


I know some of it did, but I don't think all of the G-IV data made it in on this run. That's partly why I take this run with a grain of salt. Gonna need more than one run to pull it OTS. Sure the ECMWF has been doing it all along, but can all the rest of the models simply be that bad and the ECMWF that good? Possibly, but I'll want to see this continue as a trend with all data input into the models before I make that decision.
Quoting 1261. Gearsts:

I was going to sleep but waiting for the ECMWF is more important.
Who needs sleep for work at 5am!



Quoting 1271. Gearsts:

Ugly looking Cat 3 with no eye.


Imagine with a cleared eye tomorrow, will be scary.
Quoting 1271. Gearsts:

Ugly looking Cat 3 with no eye.


Was going to say the same thing earlier not looking healthy but it's been that way at night and looks impressive during the day usually it's the opposite weird storm that's for sure
1281. sar2401
Quoting 1263. TampaFLUSA:

I always wondered if they're still seeding without our knowledge.
I haven't seen any evidence they are doing cloud seeding without our knowledge. There are many sponsored projects going on in the US, mostly over mountainous regions to promote the growth of rain from an existing storm. There were previous attempts at seeding hurricanes, and these were publicly known. There's good article about these attempt at Wiki. They were failures, and the bottom line was the hypothesis that we could somehow control hurricane behavior with seeding was physically impossible. I don't think anything has changed much since then.
Joaquin just opened the surfing season in Rincon


Quoting 1280. Austin72893:


Was going to say the same thing earlier not looking healthy but it's been that way at night and looks impressive during the day usually it's the opposite weird storm that's for sure
be nice too see first visible tomorrow it should get a nice look too it
Quoting 1281. sar2401:

I haven't seen any evidence they are doing cloud seeding without our knowledge. There are many sponsored projects going on in the US, mostly over mountainous regions to promote the growth of rain from an existing storm. There were previous attempts at seeding hurricanes, and these were publicly known. There's good article about these attempt at Wiki. They were failures, and the bottom line was the hypothesis that we could somehow control hurricane behavior with seeding was physically impossible. I don't think anything has changed much since then.


some companies do it up here in Canada out west for rains for farming mostly
Yesterday was smaller but nicer



ugly but intense

1287. Patrap
1288. Patrap
1289. Patrap
1290. Patrap
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2015 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 23:42:14 N Lon : 73:00:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 972.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.4

Center Temp : -78.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.8 degrees



1291. Patrap

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 301532
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 30 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-127

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JOAQUIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 01/1130Z,1730Z A. 02/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0711A JOAQUIN B. NOAA9 0811A JOAQUIN
C. 01/0730Z C. 01/1730Z
D. 24.1N 73.2W D. NA
E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1700Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0911A JOAQUIN B. NOAA9 1011A JOAQUIN
C. 01/1930Z C. 02/0530Z
D. 24.4N 74.4W D. NA
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0500Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 73
A. 02/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 1111A JOAQUIN
C. 02/0730Z
D. 25.3N 74.5W
E. 02/1100Z TO 01/1700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 02/1730Z AND 03/0530Z.
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT ONE ABOVE WAS PREVIOUSLY LISTED ON TCPOD
15-126 AS A SINGLE FIX MISSION. A FIX FOR 01/0530Z HAS
ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE 30/2330Z MISSION.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

$$
JWP
1292. Patrap
2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.5°N 73.4°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 948 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
1293. Patrap

Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 010531
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
200 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...JOAQUIN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 73.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should have already been completed in the central Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 73.4 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
northwest and north is forecast Thursday night or Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or
over portions of the central Bahamas today, and be near or over
portions of the northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast today. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible Thursday
night and Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft data is
948 mb (27.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
central Bahamas in the next few hours and tropical storm conditions
are expected soon in the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane conditions
are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas Thursday
night or Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas
in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal
tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the
hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast
Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over
the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
1294. Patrap
We have a Major Hurricane,

CAT-3 JOAQUIN