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Hurricane Warnings for the Bahamas From Joaquin; Threat to U.S. East Coast Grows

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:38 PM GMT on September 30, 2015

Joaquin is now a hurricane, and Hurricane Warnings are up for the Central Bahama Islands as the slowly intensifying storm moves southwest at 6 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft made two penetrations of Joaquin's center on Wednesday morning, and found top surface winds of 80 mph, a central pressure of 971 mb, and a huge 54-mile diameter eye with a fully closed eyewall. Joaquin continues to battle high wind shear of 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the north-northwest, but this wind shear had fallen by about 5 knots since Tuesday morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that a large area of dry air lay to the northwest of Joaquin, and the strong wind shear was driving this dry air into Joaquin's core, keeping intensification slow. Visible and infrared satellite loops show that Joaquin has developed a large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over the center, characteristic of intensifying storms, and the hurricane's large eye was beginning to be apparent. Upper level winds analyses from the University of Wisconsin show that the hurricane has developed an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the southeast, which is supporting the intensification process. Ocean temperatures in the region are near 30°C (86°F)--the warmest seen there since record keeping began in 1880.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Joaquin approaching the Bahamas as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Wednesday, September 29, 2015, at approximately 12:30 pm EDT. At the time, Joaquin had top winds of 80 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The U.S. outlook for Joaquin
A hurricane watch could be required for portions of the U.S. East Coast as early as Thursday night. The forecast for Joaquin is very complex, and the confidence in both the intensity and track forecast for the storm is low. Joaquin is trapped to the south of a high pressure system whose clockwise flow will push the cyclone very slowly to the southwest or west-southwest at about 3 - 6 mph. As the storm progresses to the southwest, the strong upper-level winds out of the north currently bringing high wind shear of 20 knots will gradually decrease, continuing to allow Joaquin to strengthen. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over Joaquin would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday. These conditions should allow Joaquin to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane by Thursday. As Joaquin progresses to the west, the storm will also increasingly "feel" the steering influence of a strong upper-level trough of low pressure situated over the Eastern United States on Friday, and begin to turn north. These winds may also open up another upper-level outflow channel to the northwest of Joaquin on Friday, potentially allowing the storm to intensify to Category 3 strength. However, as Joaquin gets closer to this trough, its winds will bring high wind shear of 20+ knots, likely halting the intensification process and causing weakening by Sunday.


Figure 2. Our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks, both run at 8 pm EDT Tuesday September 29, 2015 (00Z Wednesday) , came up with two very different solutions for the path of Joaquin. The GFS model showed Joaquin making landfall in Virginia, while the European model took the storm to the northeast out to sea without hitting the U.S. Image credit: wundermap with the "Model Data" layer turned on.



Figure 3. The ensemble runs of our two top models for forecasting hurricane tracks, both run at 8 pm EDT Tuesday September 29, 2015 (00Z Wednesday). The 50 members of the European model ensemble (top) and the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble (bottom) both had numerous model runs that took Joaquin into U.S. East Coast, and ones that missed the U.S. coast entirely. Ensemble runs take the operational version of the model and run it at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions, to generate an "ensemble" of possible forecasts. The operation high-resolution (and presumably best-guess) forecast for the models is shown in red. The European model ensemble had four members that tracked the movement of Joaquin exceptionally well during the previous 12 hours; three of those four members had tracks for Joaquin that missed the U.S., and one that hit the coast near New York City. Image taken from a custom software package used by TWC.

The big trend from the 00Z Wednesday (8 pm EDT Tuesday) suite of computer model guidance was a marked convergence toward a landfall in the vicinity of North Carolina or Virginia. The 00Z HWRF and GFDL models were joined by the 00Z GFS in hooking Joaquin toward the northwest on Friday and accelerating the hurricane into the coast between Cape Hatteras, NC, and the Delmarva Peninsula as a significant hurricane on Saturday/Sunday. The high-resolution HWRF and GFDL output showed central pressures in the 940-950 mb range at landfall, with wind speeds on par with a Category 2 hurricane. The 00Z UKMET solution angled more north-northwestward, with Joaquin arriving near the southern end of the Delmarva and scraping up the coast into eastern New Jersey and New York. Among the major dynamical models, only the European (ECMWF) model remained adamant that Joaquin would head to sea well before reaching the southeast U.S., although its 00Z track was a bit west of previous runs. The leftward hook prominently featured in the other models is being driven by the increasingly negative tilt (NW-to-SE) to the upper trough deepening over the eastern U.S. late this week. The models are projecting that this trough would pull in Joaquin on its northeast side, in much the same way that a strong upper-level low did with Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy in 2012. However, in Joaquin's case, the process would unfold a couple of hundred miles to the south. The ECMWF run shows a very similar upper-level pattern to the other models, but the timing of the trough's interaction with Joaquin and with Invest 90L is such that the hurricane is shunted to sea instead of being tucked into the northeast side of the trough. 90L was centered at 8 am EDT Wednesday about 1000 miles east-northeast of Joaquin. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 70%, respectively.


Figure 4. Model track guidance initialized at 12Z Wednesday (8 am EDT) shows a continued clustering of model solutions toward North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic. This early-track guidance uses 12Z data on Joaquin to update the previous model runs from 06Z. This map does not include the ECMWF model, whose 00Z operational run took Joaquin out to sea. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Back in 2012, the ECMWF model caught on to the leftward hook of Sandy's track several days before other models. The ECMWF's high overall skill means we cannot entirely discount its out-to-sea forecast for Joaquin just yet. At the same time, the strong consistency among other leading models in projecting a NC/mid-Atlantic landfall cannot be ignored. We can gain more perspective on this scenario by looking at the ECMWF and GFS ensemble output from 00Z Wednesday. In each ensemble, the model is run a number of times for the same situation, but with the starting conditions varied slightly to represent the uncertainty in our starting-point observations of the atmosphere. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles from 00Z Wednesday are much more similar in flavor than you might expect from looking at their single operational runs. Both models have a majority of ensemble members heading for North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic, with a few outliers heading to sea.

If Wednesday's 12Z (8 am EDT) models continue to zero in on a NC/VA landfall, and especially if the ECMWF comes more fully around, then this solution will become a more high-confidence forecast. The NHC has been nudging its "cone of uncertainty" toward the left, still splitting the difference between the ECMWF and other solutions while acknowledging the westward trend. The entire U.S. coast from the Outer Banks of NC to southern New England was located in the 5-day cone issued at 11 am EDT Wednesday and valid at 2 am EDT Monday. Even if NHC moves more fully toward the NC/mid-Atlantic scenario, we can still expect to see a large swath of coastline remaining in the "cone" as we get closer to Joaquin's eventual landfall.

Potential impacts from Joaquin
Apart from the remaining uncertainty about a U.S. landfall, Joaquin is now poised to bring hurricane-force conditions into or very close to the southeastern Bahamas. WIth luck, these islands will remain on the weaker left-hand side of Joaquin. If the hurricane makes a sharp turn to the north on Friday as predicted, the effects should be considerably less on the northwestern Bahamas.

It is relatively rare for a hurricane to make a Sandy-like left hook into the U.S. East Coast. Such a track was unprecedented for New Jersey in hurricane annals, and even in the NC/VA area, it is uncommon enough that the likely effects would be both unusual and high-impact. The closest analogue from recent years is 2003's Hurricane Isabel. After a much longer life as a Cape Verde system and a Category 4 hurricane from the Central Atlantic (briefly a Category 5), Isabel angled sharply northwestward and made landfall on North Carolina's Outer Banks as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Isabel then continued on a fairly direct track to western Pennsylvania as it weakened. Isabel's trajectory brought huge surf to the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, with a major storm surge pushing into the Chesapeake Bay and nearby waterways, plus widespread impacts from high wind and heavy rain. Joaquin is not as large or long-lived a storm as Isabel, but if it moved slightly to the north of Isabel's path, its track could be even more favorable for a Chesapeake surge. Hurricane-force winds would be another factor to contend with, especially just north of Joaquin's track during and just after landfall. Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham of LSU has a detailed look at the potential for storm surge from Joaquin along the U.S. East Coast in his Wednesday morning blog post, Widespread Storm Surge Event to Impact U.S. Atlantic Coast.

One very worrisome aspect of Joaquin is the torrential rains that it could bring from the Carolinas to the Northeast and perhaps even New England. Heavy rains and scattered flash flooding have already occurred in parts of these areas over the last 24 hours, as a preexisting front is overtopped by near-record amounts of water vapor streaming over the region ahead of the trough that will help steer Joaquin. The hurricane itself, arriving after several days of antecedent rainfall, has the potential to produce truly historic rainfall totals. This morning's 7-day outlook from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, which goes with the NC/mid-Atlantic scenario, shows widespread 5-10" amounts from North Carolina to southern New England. Model output suggests that localized 7-day totals of 10-20" or more are not out of the question, depending on Joaquin's exact track. We'll have more on the ongoing and potential flood risk in our afternoon post.


Figure 5. Projected 7-day rainfall amounts from 12Z Wednesday, September 30, to 12Z October 7. Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

We'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. BahaHurican:

U not the only one.

Regular grocery day. Tinned / powdered milk.


I keep forgetting about that powder milk..must be powdered eggs too..
Quoting 499. BahaHurican:

U not the only one.

Regular grocery day. Tinned / powdered milk.


Take care of yourself, Baha.

My thoughts are with you.
Quoting 479. 62901IL:



The Euro is an outliar, but should never be discounted.

why would you ever want to believe any kind of liar?
Fresh 18z

Quoting 500. sar2401:

Both the ECMWF and NAM failed on their accumulation predictions, while the GFS got it right. I'd point out that snowfall accumulations are kind of like intensity predictions for hurricanes. There are no models that consistently get it right.


I would argue hurricane intensity forecast problem is tougher and more ill conditioned than the snowfall accumulation problem.
Really not fair how I keep getting post 96 - 99 every page ..... lol ....

Quoting 445. nash36:



It's not completely out of the question, however.....

I'm having a difficult time resolving the immediate, sharp about-face that the ECMWF portrays.
U not the only one.

Quoting 487. ncstorm:



Why are you getting milk if you happen to lose power?
Regular grocery day. Tinned / powdered milk.
Quoting 504. VAbeachhurricanes:

Fresh 18z


Ugh Oh, one model is touching aquak9's house.
Quoting 503. ACSeattle:


why would you ever want to believe any kind of liar?

Well, it could win out unexpectedly.
Quoting 499. BahaHurican:

Regular grocery day. Tinned / powdered milk.
Do you guys have irradiated milk there that comes in cardboard/plastic cartons? I've been stocking up on that. Apparently lasts about three years without refrigeration and tastes a whole lot better than powdered milk on my Cheerios. :-)
After monitoring the National Weather Service reports and consulting with the Commissioner's Office, tomorrow's game between the Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will be rescheduled from 7:05 p.m. to 12:05 p.m. ET in anticipation of inclement weather across the Mid-Atlantic region. All ballpark gates will open at 11:00 a.m., and parking lots will open at 10:00 a.m.

Fans with tickets who are unable to attend Thursday's game because of the time change may exchange them for any remaining home game this season on a "dollar-for-dollar" basis, including today's single-admission doubleheader. Fans may also choose to hold their tickets until 2016 tickets go on sale, at which point they may be exchanged for tickets to any of the games against the Toronto Blue Jays from April 19-21, 2016. All exchanges are subject to availability and must be completed by April 21, 2016. Complimentary tickets are non-exchangeable.
Ticket exchanges can be performed at the Box Office or submitted in writing along with the original tickets and mailed via certified mail by April 21, 2016 to:
Baltimore Orioles
Attention: October 1 Time Change
333 West Camden Street
Baltimore, MD 21201
Quoting 504. VAbeachhurricanes:

Fresh 18z




Clear as mud. Further south again. I will say...trend has been further south and west with each run since late yesterday.
Quoting 492. nash36:

Anyone who lives on the east coast--FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, has no excuse for being ignorant of a hurricane in the ATL, which could impact them. It's all over TWC; it's all over their local news.

If you're told to evacuate, don't play around. Your couch and big screen flat panel are NOT more important than your life, and the lives of your family.


as a former first responder "30 years ago" If you are told to lave and don't, please don't call for help and ask someone to risk their lives over our ego or whatever made you stay behind. Stay and ride the results of your actions. 1. You Die. 2 you get one he__ of a story for the kids and grandkids. 3. You get hurt bad, live, and option 2
Quoting 507. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Ugh Oh, one model is touching aquak9's house.
The BAMS? I don't think she has too much to worry about. :-)
Quoting 429. BahaHurican:

Wow. That actually puts the eye just south of Rum Cay, just barely east of Long Island, and just north of Crooked Island. Right now there aren't even TS watches up for the SE Bahamas, which, now that you think of it, is rather strange .....

BTW, has anyone seen a post from CRS in Providenciales since yesterday? They should be getting some good rains today ....

I got about .7 inch so far... Water is way up in the canal behind my house, the steady west winds are pushing the water up on the Caicos bank, combined with the spring tide.
Quoting 501. ncstorm:



I keep forgetting about that powder milk..must be powdered eggs too..
I'd get regular eggs [actually, will get some tonight] IF my family is big enough. Bake a cake, make eggs for breakfast tomorrow, boil a couple - it's a done dozen ....

This reminds me my own cupboard is bare, and I will have to go to the store before enjoying the evening on the blog ....
Im pulling for the ECMWF........Horrible for the Bahama Islands......but maybe the path of the least destruction for everyone else.
Quoting 502. nash36:



Take care of yourself, Baha.

My thoughts are with you.
Yeah, man.... we been through a few of these together on the blog over the years .... lol ... I'm hoping for best case scenario and wanting - getting close to - cussing that ECMWF .....

:o)
Quoting 512. Autistic2:



as a former first responder "30 years ago" If you are told to lave and don't, please don't call for help and ask someone to risk their lives over our ego or whatever made you stay behind. Stay and ride the results of your actions. 1. You Die. 2 you get one he__ of a story for the kids and grandkids. 3. You get hurt bad, live, and option 2


Personally, if Joaquin makes a harder left turn and comes ashore anywhere near, or just north of Charleston, I can promise you my rear end, and that of my families will be long gone. My house isn't that important.
Quoting 451. Sangria:

Brad Panovich, a met out of Charlotte, posted this vid this morning to his FB page. I watch his vids even though I am in FL, as he does a good job of showing a lot of info.

Link






Very good info San. Wife leaves for SC tomorrow morning for 10 days, she has been warned!. Good to see you here.
Quoting 516. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Im pulling for the ECMWF........Horrible for the Bahama Islands......but maybe the path of the least destruction for everyone else.


You may, but judging from the other model solutions, it's unlikely that the Euro will win.

If so, then, I give the Euro 908,675,123,456,789 points.
Quoting 512. Autistic2:



as a former first responder "30 years ago" If you are told to lave and don't, please don't call for help and ask someone to risk their lives over our ego or whatever made you stay behind. Stay and ride the results of your actions. 1. You Die. 2 you get one he__ of a story for the kids and grandkids. 3. You get hurt bad, live, and option 2
Our 911 dispatch center had a recorded message that would play based on phone number and location. If it came from an evacuation zone after we informed the public that there would be no responses after a certain time, that's what they heard before the call taker answered the phone. We made sure that recording was also sent to the media so they could feature it in storm stories. Worked pretty good.
Woah! o_0 I leave for a few hours and Joaquin looks like he's on the verge of a major.When is the next HH flight? Considering that the storm is thus close to land I would have thought they would have regular flights.
Quoting 517. BahaHurican:

Yeah, man.... we been through a few of these together on the blog over the years .... lol ... I'm hoping for best case scenario and wanting - getting close to - cussing that ECMWF .....

:o)


Batten down the hatches and BE SAFE! Good Luck to you!
Quoting 510. anthmiranda:

After monitoring the National Weather Service reports and consulting with the Commissioner's Office, tomorrow's game between the Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will be rescheduled from 7:05 p.m. to 12:05 p.m. ET in anticipation of inclement weather across the Mid-Atlantic region. All ballpark gates will open at 11:00 a.m., and parking lots will open at 10:00 a.m.

Fans with tickets who are unable to attend Thursday's game because of the time change may exchange them for any remaining home game this season on a "dollar-for-dollar" basis, including today's single-admission doubleheader. Fans may also choose to hold their tickets until 2016 tickets go on sale, at which point they may be exchanged for tickets to any of the games against the Toronto Blue Jays from April 19-21, 2016. All exchanges are subject to availability and must be completed by April 21, 2016. Complimentary tickets are non-exchangeable.
Ticket exchanges can be performed at the Box Office or submitted in writing along with the original tickets and mailed via certified mail by April 21, 2016 to:
Baltimore Orioles
Attention: October 1 Time Change
333 West Camden Street
Baltimore, MD 21201
The Orioles are eliminated.so this game is just a matter of ball players statistics. Anyway the attendance is minimal.
I really can't see the Eye now.

Quoting 509. sar2401:

Do you guys have irradiated milk there that comes in cardboard/plastic cartons? I've been stocking up on that. Apparently lasts about three years without refrigeration and tastes a whole lot better than powdered milk on my Cheerios. :-)
Hmm. Haven't seen this. I've been buying the little quart packets in Ft. Lauderdale whenever I make a trip over [every couple months]. I basically only use it in my coffee, so I rarely use it as a stand alone drink. Most pple here buy the tinned cream [used to be "Carnation" was the word for tinned cream, but now they have other brands] for long term use. Including cereal.
Quoting 522. washingtonian115:

Woah! o_0 I leave for a few hours and Joaquin looks like he's on the verge of a major.When is the next HH flight? Considering that the storm is thus close to land I would have thought they would have regular flights.


I believe they leave in about half an hour


look how far west the models are now..
On second thought I will take the BAM D? Does that model not take it almost due east out to sea?
Quoting 503. ACSeattle:


why would you ever want to believe any kind of liar?


It's one of the better forecasting models, and the NHC is giving it input by staying neutral (though bends it towards the US, we'll see the new cone in two hours). It's also the one model keeping me and a few others from dusting off our hurricane plans for the short term.
Quoting 523. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Batten down the hatches and BE SAFE! Good Luck to you!


Let's just batten down the hatches and reinforce the shields. I'm not going to let a bit of bad weather stand in our way.
The fact that the NAM agrees with the Euro is bad for the Euro.
Quoting 532. VAbeachhurricanes:

The fact that the NAM agrees with the Euro is bad for the Euro.


Camp 1: NAM and Euro

Camp 2: Everyone else
Quoting 456. Autistic2:

Must be an it issue. Just got kicked off site. Could not log on. Was banned for 24 hours even though haven't posted in two weeks. Anyone else?

If this WSW keeps up much longer and he gets much stronger I think he will "feel" the pull more NW than N in the 3-5 day range. Have the models been reinitlized with 85 mph winds?


I see the models picked up on what I was thinking. IF this WSW keeps up at 6 mph for another 12 hours I think it will make the HARD left near the G , SC border.
AccuWeather Headline: Hurricane Joaquin to slam East Coast

C'mon now, what click bait
Quoting 495. HurricaneAndre:


Wow for HWRF for Future Kate.


So if Ida's remnants do come back, is it still Ida? Or does it really get a new name because the circulation technically died for a bit?
Quoting 530. win1gamegiantsplease:



It's one of the better forecasting models, and the NHC is giving it input by staying neutral (though bends it towards the US, we'll see the new cone in two hours). It's also the one model keeping me and a few others from dusting off our hurricane plans for the short term.


The NHC typically does not make huge, sweeping shifts in either direction, unless it is patently obvious the storm has done the exact opposite of what was forecast. Expect gradual shifts.
Quoting 514. CaicosRetiredSailor:


I got about .7 inch so far... Water is way up in the canal behind my house, the steady west winds are pushing the water up on the Caicos bank, combined with the spring tide.
Hope this doesn't turn out to be a case of Dominica - itis, where the watches south of the storm were never posted, but turned out to have been needed ..... :o/

I don't suppose the winds have been that bad.
Quoting 488. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This might also be a set-up for severe weather in the southeast, lots of windshear aloft, and a bit of a temperature gradient behind and ahead of the cold front. If not might still be able to get a line of thunderstorms in the Gulf to form and head towards the west coast of FL. Something I will be keeping an eye on here.








There's a line starting to build in NW Florida ahead of the cold front, those storms should move offshore after they push through!
Quoting 535. win1gamegiantsplease:

AccuWeather Headline: Hurricane Joaquin to slam East Coast

C'mon now


That's just irresponsible.
Quoting 516. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Im pulling for the ECMWF........Horrible for the Bahama Islands......but maybe the path of the least destruction for everyone else.
You just stopped being my friend .....
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Okay, I was only joking ..... lol .....
Quoting 505. georgevandenberghe:



I would argue hurricane intensity forecast problem is tougher and more ill conditioned than the snowfall accumulation problem.
I agree, but the problem of the chaotic atmosphere and sharp short term changes is similar. I well remember when we couldn't even get track and timing near right on a snow storm, let alone accumulation. I've been impressed so far with most of the models regarding Joaquin's intensity. They picked upon this being a powerful storm fairly early on. For those of us with long memories, that's quite amazing compared to anything we saw even 25 years ago.
545. ariot
Quoting 484. sar2401:

As I understand it, the House votes this afternoon. All the people who supposedly know think this is a done deal, but we'll soon know for sure.


It was a done deal when the Speaker decided to bail. That was the play, end of story. We'll do CRAs for the rest of FY16.

Meanwhile, not much will be done for anything related to preparedness or response in the budget process. It's sad that it takes a oddball storm threatening major population centers to even get people thinking.
Quoting 526. BahaHurican:

Hmm. Haven't seen this. I've been buying the little quart packets in Ft. Lauderdale whenever I make a trip over [every couple months]. I basically only use it in my coffee, so I rarely use it as a stand alone drink. Most pple here buy the tinned cream [used to be "Carnation" was the word for tinned cream, but now they have other brands] for long term use. Including cereal.


You're not referring to evaporated milk are you? Carnation is what we've used making pumpkin pie.

No thanks, I'll take my cereal dry ;)
Quoting 534. Autistic2:



I see the models picked up on what I was thinking. IF this WSW keeps up at 6 mph for another 12 hours I think it will make the HARD left near the G , SC border.


Given the pattern, a landfall that far south is not as likely. It would also be the worst case scenario for Charleston.
latest 1km vis still
011L/XH/J/C2

Quoting 548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest 1km vis still
011L/XH/J/C2




Seems like the eye is getting smaller, still can see towers exploding
Quoting 541. 69Viking:



There's a line starting to build in NW Florida ahead of the cold front, those storms should move offshore after they push through!
The SPC is not excited about any severe weather over the next seven days, and they tend to get excited easily, especially when it's otherwise slow.
Quoting 524. hurricanefishfla:

The Orioles are eliminated.so this game is just a matter of ball players statistics. Anyway the attendance is minimal.


True, however it is interesting to see plans being made. Now the NFL has to make a call on the Eagles/Redskins game in Landover, MD Sunday at 1 PM...
The ECMWF model has EARNED the respect it gets, as seen by the actions of the NHC forecasters.......... it could be wrong but you do not want to dismiss it lightly. It may be the BEST global model.


watch out east coast
Quoting 487. ncstorm:



Why are you getting milk if you happen to lose power?


We go through milk quick...I got babies! And we'll just throw the eggs at the insurance adjuster! we got a 10% deductible for named storms.
Joaquin still moving south, my gut says the ECMWF will be right.
Quoting 554. FyrtleMyrtle:



We go through milk quick...I got babies! And we'll just throw the eggs at the insurance adjuster! we got a 10% deductible for named storms.



LOL!!!
Quoting 551. anthmiranda:



True, however it is interesting to see plans being made. Now the NFL has to make a call on the Eagles/Redskins game in Landover, MD Sunday at 1 PM...
They could move it to a neutral site or postpone it to a Thursday night game.
Quoting 519. tropicofcancer:



Very good info San. Wife leaves for SC tomorrow morning for 10 days, she has been warned!. Good to see you here.


Uggh.... her timing couldn't be worse! I'm sure you'll keep her up to date on what's happening. :-)
Quoting 551. anthmiranda:



True, however it is interesting to see plans being made. Now the NFL has to make a call on the Eagles/Redskins game in Landover, MD Sunday at 1 PM...


NASCAR will have to make a call on the Sprint Cup Series race at Dover on Sunday at 2pm as well.
I want to say great job for all the bloggers providing information regarding Joaquin and future Tropical or Non Tropical Systems. Our Weather Enthusiam carry this site and makes every day weatherwise a pleasure
Quoting 529. HurricaneHunterJoe:

On second thought I will take the BAM D? Does that model not take it almost due east out to sea?
Yes, it does, but it's the BAMM that has done better than some models early on. None of the BAM suite should be given any credence when we have a hurricane and all the major models are on it.
Quoting 525. 62901IL:

I really can't see the Eye now.



It's blowing more deep convection in the SE quad and the anvils are obscuring it a little more. The strengthening trend is continuing.

563. Mikla
Tried to link this, but slowed the page load to a crawl...
Hi Res Image
Quoting 543. BahaHurican:

You just stopped being my friend .....
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Okay, I was only joking ..... lol .....
LOL......I did change to some model forecast track I hadn't seen before taking Joaquin NE away from you guys and gals...........hoping for the best for all Bahamians!
Thanks TornadoDude
566. JRRP
Just checking in from Mount Thompson on Great Exuma. Overcast skies but no rain since this morning. Winds gusting to around 25mph. Some flooding in parts of the island mainly caused by the very high tides and the winds pushing water on shore. All schools closed at mid day to allow the kids chance to get home. We wait to see what tonight and tomorrow bring.
are we going to have a WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT soon
Quoting 561. sar2401:

Yes, it does, but it's the BAMM that has done better than some models early on. None of the BAM suite should be given any credence when we have a hurricane and all the major models are on it.


I know that...thats why I said hope the ECMWF is right.......I do give that model a lot of weight......just to bad that it forecasts Joaquin to run amok in the Bahama Islands.
Any fool that tries to risk the lives of several thousand for a football game is foolish...then again common sense has never been to keen when it comes to football around here...
Jim Cantore is in Virginia Beach..

they are safe..
While the EURO is sticking to a slingshot out to sea scenario, the rest of the models have spoke. The thing is though, EURO has nailed a few storms this year. It was the first model to nail Erikas demise after the info from recon was fed into the model. While I don't agree or even understand the sling shot out to sea scenario, it is the EURO and must be taken with at least a bit more notice. NHC is doing good sticking the track a bit right of most models. Until the EURO caves in, the track will remain heading towards the Mid-Atlantic states for now. As for intensity? We are looking at a storm that could rival or completely overdue Sandy. Reason why? Purely Tropical at landfall.
Duke putting discounts on football tickets in case Joaquin bends this way [Link]. If it were basketball tickets I'd be inclined to think this article would not be written.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 6m6 minutes ago
Our current weather pattern is kind of notorious for Mid-Atlantic hurricane landfalls
I have 2 computer classes over the course of the day. One is around 11 AM. The other is around 2 PM.
So that works out rather well.
I'm not having to sneak my phone out in class to see whats happening :P
So hey what've I missed since 2 PM
Quoting 575. JrWeathermanFL:

I have 2 computer classes over the course of the day. One is around 11 AM. The other is around 2 PM.
So that works out rather well.
I'm not having to sneak my phone out in class to see whats happening :P
So hey what've I missed since 2 PM


Good stuff. Look thru the pages.
Quoting 526. BahaHurican:

Hmm. Haven't seen this. I've been buying the little quart packets in Ft. Lauderdale whenever I make a trip over [every couple months]. I basically only use it in my coffee, so I rarely use it as a stand alone drink. Most pple here buy the tinned cream [used to be "Carnation" was the word for tinned cream, but now they have other brands] for long term use. Including cereal.
It goes under the brand name "Smart Choice" here. It's made by Schroeder Milk Company in Michigan, and comes in a plastic coated cardboard quart box. It's real whole milk irradiated to kill most bacteria and make the ones still left inactive for longer. I just checked and I was a little optimistic on the expiration date. It's good for a year on the carton, but I have been rotating the stock when it's two years old and haven't noticed any problems. Since it's real milk, it tastes way better in things like coffee and cereal. Powdered milk still works fine for things like baking, but this stuff is way better for drinking.
Quoting 571. ncstorm:

Jim Cantore is in Virginia Beach..

they are safe..


Link
The reason for the southwest movement, you literally have steering layer winds all over the place. Therefore, forces acting upon themselves to nullify any straight forward path, which is why the models have diverging solutions.


Quoting 517. BahaHurican:

Yeah, man.... we been through a few of these together on the blog over the years .... lol ... I'm hoping for best case scenario and wanting - getting close to - cussing that ECMWF .....

:o)
BH, on the plus side a week earlier and this would be in line with the King tide/ super moon. Tides still abnormally high on this side of the straits . Is same true over there?
Quoting 569. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I know that...thats why I said hope the ECMWF is right.......I do give that model a lot of weight......just to bad that it forecasts Joaquin to run amok in the Bahama Islands.
Yes, it is. I understood what you were saying to Baha, It appears the only way to save the Mid-Atlantic is for Joaquin to hang around in the Bahamas longer and cause them misery. It would be nice if everyone could escape without a scratch, but that's often not the way it works out. :-(
Quoting 578. Articuno:



Link


that USE to be true..but the past seasons except Sandy he has been in places where nothing happens..Tropical storm Nicole was a hoot to see him there in Miami and nada and the big DC snow storm blunder ..maybe he will strike gold again for VA..
Note the swirl off of florida



i hope we see a eye soon of this hurricane

Quoting 583. JrWeathermanFL:

Note the swirl off of florida


Hey Joaquin has a friend, ex-99L. That may be his lunch.
this evening's model runs and the overnight ones will have the balloon release data. we'll have a much better sense of where this is going then.

Quoting 572. reedzone:

While the EURO is sticking to a slingshot out to sea scenario, the rest of the models have spoke. The thing is though, EURO has nailed a few storms this year. It was the first model to nail Erikas demise after the info from recon was fed into the model. While I don't agree or even understand the sling shot out to sea scenario, it is the EURO and must be taken with at least a bit more notice. NHC is doing good sticking the track a bit right of most models. Until the EURO caves in, the track will remain heading towards the Mid-Atlantic states for now. As for intensity? We are looking at a storm that could rival or completely overdue Sandy. Reason why? Purely Tropical at landfall.


The EURO was also the first model to predict that Sandy would take a left turn into the US, eight days before landfall. The NHC didn't come on board with the prediction until four days later.
Quoting 583. JrWeathermanFL:

Note the swirl off of florida


ex 99L, its gonna get evaporated by Joaquin...
Quoting 585. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Joaquin has a friend, ex-99L. That may be his lunch.


He'll go lunching out on his lunchtime. :-)
If Joaquin doesn't make the north turn by tommorow this time, then FL should pay closer attention, could get some TS Watches aswell.
Quoting 587. yonzabam:



The EURO was also the first model to predict that Sandy would take a left turn into the US, eight days before landfall. The NHC didn't come on board with the prediction until four days later.
I forget was that the operational run of the EURO or ensembles that were predicting the left turn into the US?
Quoting 585. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Joaquin has a friend, ex-99L. That may be his lunch.
Quoting 589. 62901IL:



He'll go lunching out on his lunchtime. :-)


If it's his friend, why would it eat it :(
Dropsonde from Gonzo.

990mb Surface (Sea Level) 340° (from the NNW) 50 knots (58 mph)
925mb 596m (1,955 ft) 355° (from the N) 63 knots (72 mph)
Well, here is some stuff for Joaquin's theme song. Pay attention to the suspenseful background music.

Link
sw carib is quiet for now
Quoting 590. Camerooski:

If Joaquin doesn't make the north turn by tommorow this time, then FL should pay closer attention, could get some TS Watches aswell.


Incorrect. The NWD turn is not expected until "up to" 48-72hrs. In other words, Friday, going into Friday night. FL will not be under any sort of TS watches. The pattern simply does not support this hurricane barreling due west into FL.
I don't want to sound bossy when I say this, but the Florida doomcasters or whatever they're called need to stop.
If Grand Bahama is under a Hurricane Watch, the SE FL From Miami to Port St Lucie will probably get a TS watch tommorow if it still moves west...
Quoting 546. win1gamegiantsplease:



You're not referring to evaporated milk are you? Carnation is what we've used making pumpkin pie.

No thanks, I'll take my cereal dry ;)
Yes, indeed.... for some "cream", aka evaporated milk, is the gold standard when it comes to what to put on cereal .... lol .... some don't even bother with the added water ....


anyone see the eye!!
Quoting 583. JrWeathermanFL:

Note the swirl off of florida




I also noticed that it has not been picked up by the trough just to the west of it. As it is continuing to be stationary, I begin to wonder just what and when the impact of the same trough will impact Joaquin to start its' trek north.
Quoting 591. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I forget was that the operational run of the EURO or ensembles that were predicting the left turn into the US?


The EURO on its own.
The Euro operational run may still be OTS, but the ensembles have come quite a distance west.

Quoting 581. sar2401:

Yes, it is. I understood what you were saying to Baha, It appears the only way to save the Mid-Atlantic is for Joaquin to hang around in the Bahamas longer and cause them misery. It would be nice if everyone could escape without a scratch, but that's often not the way it works out. :-(
Quoting 588. Camerooski:

ex 99L, its gonna get evaporated by Joaquin...
Joaquin is moving almost due south or SSW... lets see how southward he would go....
Quoting 601. MrNatural:



I also noticed that it has not been picked up by the trough just to the west of it. As it is continuing to be stationary, I begin to wonder just what and when the impact of the same trough will impact Joaquin to start its' trek north.
Probably becuz it's extremely weak, it doesn't feel the weakness to the NW


hurricane moving sw littie more faster now!
I feel like us in south Florida will be ok...Please listen to the weather services up the east coast...I am praying that it takes a turn east , but that may be wishful thinking at this point...Please take heed all...I have been in these storms before...Not fun at all...especially the folks that are hoping for one....-
Quoting 555. all4hurricanes:

Joaquin still moving south, my gut says the ECMWF will be right.
I thought it was never supposed to turn until tomorrow, late ....

Quoting 567. androsann:

Just checking in from Mount Thompson on Great Exuma. Overcast skies but no rain since this morning. Winds gusting to around 25mph. Some flooding in parts of the island mainly caused by the very high tides and the winds pushing water on shore. All schools closed at mid day to allow the kids chance to get home. We wait to see what tonight and tomorrow bring.
Hey, Ann. Didn't realize you had moved ..... I'm sure hoping you don't get the hurricane force winds down there. I saw 5 - 10 inches of rain with isolated 20 inches associated with Joaquin, and I was reminded of Noel ..... NOT a good thought .....

Stay safe and keep us posted!
Quoting 603. SavannahStorm:

The Euro operational run may still be OTS, but the ensembles have come quite a distance west.


One example came about a month ago when the operational was showing a cat 2 into Texas but the ensembles said nada.
Will this one do a 1985 Elena dance?
611. 7544
Quoting 604. HuracanTaino:

Joaquin is moving almost due south or SSW... lets see how southward he would go....



and how much more bigger it will get size wise that will be a bigger factor on or when it makes the turn it can even stall out soon imo wait watch and sea one thing i do notice is that the pressure is falling all day in gro s area in se fl dont know if that means anything ?
Quoting 610. westernmob:

Will this one do a 1985 Elena dance?


1985 Elena Dance?
Quoting 606. hurricanes2018:



hurricane moving sw littie more faster now!
Ye I see that, Cuba?
Quoting 613. Camerooski:

Ye I see that, Cuba?


I'm sure it will make the turn. Just give it time.
Quoting 613. Camerooski:

Ye I see that, Cuba?


Probably Brasil
Quoting 599. BahaHurican:

Yes, indeed.... for some "cream", aka evaporated milk, is the gold standard when it comes to what to put on cereal .... lol .... some don't even bother with the added water ....


Well, maybe on corn flakes, hell anything could make corn flakes taste better.
Quoting 606. hurricanes2018:



hurricane moving sw littie more faster now!


It is a little more south then the models were showing but this is expected, GFS has it going this direction until around 2PM tommorow. Give it time, it'll turn.


Capital Weather Gang Retweeted
Gary Szatkowski ‏@GarySzatkowski 1h1 hour ago
Lot of talk about Euro model regarding #Joaquin forecast track. I remember Euro really nailed a late January snowstorm. Oh wait. It didn't.
9/30/2015. Hurricane Joaquin with 85 mph winds and getting stronger as it moves southwest toward the Bahamas.Link
Quoting 595. islander101010:

sw carib is quiet for now
Keep an eye on that area 3rd week in October during the secondary peak of the hurricane season for any mischief. I don't think Joaquin will be the last storm of this season.
Quoting 597. 62901IL:

I don't want to sound bossy when I say this, but the Florida doomcasters or whatever they're called need to stop.


One thing I have noticed on this site is that there are those who , instead of praying the storm misses them, seem to pray and beg that the storm hits them. Some will even argue that the NHC and the experts have it all wrong when they say it will not come close to them. I guess I just do not get it. There are as many or more people on this site (whether they choose to admit it or not) that would be disappointed if this thing went out to sea as there are people who are hoping it never touches land.
Thank you Dr. Masters et al for your very informative blog. I like the way almost every possibility is explained and evaluated. I particularly like the ECMWF model. Out to sea she goes! I live on the NJ coast, approx 35 miles north of Atlantic City. I watched the eye of Irene over my house in 2011, and the Sandy left hook landfall south of my home near Atlantic City, which took out my lower level, which luckily were "tear away walls". Up on pilings is the way to go for me.
I have decided I would rather be under the "eye" if another hurricane does an unprecedented left hook into my backyard waters! No damage with Irene, and I got to see the stars through the eye, which was so cool. So I am saying that if I get in the way of ANOTHER hurricane, within the past four years, I am going back to drinking and smoking and hitting the casinos again! Stay safe everybody and I look forward to all the updates that will be coming from Dr. Masters and wunderground.
Quoting 572. reedzone:

...... As for intensity? We are looking at a storm that could rival or completely overdue Sandy. Reason why? Purely Tropical at landfall.


I would argue that Sandy was so destructive, over such a large area, because it was extra-tropical; not in spite of it.
The last time the Bahamas had a Hurricane Warning? I believe it was Sandy.
Quoting 580. lat25five:

BH, on the plus side a week earlier and this would be in line with the King tide/ super moon. Tides still abnormally high on this side of the straits . Is same true over there?
Apparently so. My main concerns with Joaquin are the flooding / erosion at the shore ... higher than average tides will not help.

Quoting 598. Camerooski:

If Grand Bahama is under a Hurricane Watch, the SE FL From Miami to Port St Lucie will probably get a TS watch tomorrow if it still moves west...
Okay, this goes to my current thoughts about BREAK POINTS. This is basically where TC watches issued by NHC stop/start - a line at the coast, basically. I keep thinking that these break points have not been working the way one would like, and Joaquin is fixing to illustrate this once again. Looking at the forecasts, Crooked Island and Acklins should be included in the watch area, given their possible proximity to the storm's centre. However, because they are in the SE Bahamas, which is away from the direction of travel, NO watches at all have been posted. Realistically, if the eye comes within 20 miles of Long Island, one can reasonably expect another island to its SE to experience TS force winds and heavy TS style rain. The current warning system means either ALL or NONE of the SE islands get a warning, rather than allowing for islands to be evaluated and warned on a case by case basis.

Then Cam comes on here and, because a relatively low risk island like Grand Bahama is warned, extrapolates the need for warnings over FL .....
We have flood watches for the Carolinas now.
NWS, Wilmington, NC

Latest discussion

AN EXCEEDINGLY WET BUT SURPRISINGLY COOL PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE SHORT
TERM AS A COLD FRONT...UPPER LOW...AND COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE
COMBINE ACROSS THE AREA. HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL PLAY A FACTOR
TOO...BUT THE TRACK OF THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND DIRECT
IMPACTS...IF ANY...WILL BE AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KS/ND TODAY WILL AMPLIFY INTO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN CLOSE OFF AND NEGATIVELY
TILT...POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND ANOMALOUS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT AT THE SAME TIME SHOWERS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...SO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL ACTUALLY BE
TAKING PLACE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY RAIN...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE CLEARLY EVIDENT ON PWAT ANALYSES WILL BE DRIVEN
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS...DIRECTED RIGHT FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN. IT IS THIS MOIST
CONVEYOR...A "TROPICAL FIREHOSE" TO TAKE THE TERM FROM A SPENES
MESSAGE 5 YEARS AGO...
THAT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING EVENT LATE THIS WEEK.

RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS SATURATED LOW LEVEL
FLOW GETS ANGLED BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS...LIFTED ATOP THE STALLED
BOUNDARY...AND WRUNG OUT LOCALLY. PWATS WILL APPROACH 2.25 TO 2.5
INCHES...AND AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES BOTH DUE TO THE
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING 200MB JET
STREAK TO THE NW...RAINFALL WILL BECOME HEAVIER...AND CATEGORICAL
RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAMPING DOWN TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY DUE TO THE TEMPORAL
EXTENT. ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE EXCLUSIVE FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...ALTHOUGH THAT MOISTURE WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A HUGE ROLE
INTO THE QPF. WPC 1-3 DAY QPF MATCHES QUITE WELL WITH THE LOCAL
STORMTOTAL GRID...AND EXPECT 3-5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE BEYOND THIS SHORT TERM. OF COURSE THIS IS A
BASIN AVERAGE...AND MUCH HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES.

THIS LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN
AREAL FLOOD WATCH...AND WPC HAS ALSO OUTLINED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FLOODING WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT.
AT THE SAME
TIME...WHILE THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OTHER IMPACTS...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS FROM THE N/NE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PWS34 PROBS CONTINUE TO RISE AS WELL...SO
ALTHOUGH NO TS FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE TRACK FOR JOAQUIN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ANY
STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED. THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BE NEEDED EVEN FURTHER INTO
THE LONG TERM.
629. Gaara
Quoting 551. anthmiranda:



True, however it is interesting to see plans being made. Now the NFL has to make a call on the Eagles/Redskins game in Landover, MD Sunday at 1 PM...


Actually, the interesting thing will be to see what happens to game 162 vs. the Yankees if there are still wild card home game implications at that point. Pushing that game to late Monday would be an absolute travel nightmare for the Yankees were they to slip to the second wild card slot.
Quoting 624. smog00:



I would argue that Sandy was so destructive, over such a large area, because it was extra-tropical; not in spite of it.


I'd agree with that. The transition to extra-tropical caused Sandy's wind field to greatly expand, even while she kept her intensity. That let her move a lot more water around.
If Joaquin goes even half a degree further south, the models may have to shift west.
Quoting 616. win1gamegiantsplease:



Well, maybe on corn flakes, hell anything cold make corn flakes taste better.
LOL .... curiously enough, corn flakes used to be the #1 cold cereal eaten with "cream" .... lol ...

Quoting 621. NovaScotia33:



One thing I have noticed on this site is that there are those who , instead of praying the storm misses them, seem to pray and beg that the storm hits them. Some will even argue that the NHC and the experts have it all wrong when they say it will not come close to them. I guess I just do not get it. There are as many or more people on this site (whether they choose to admit it or not) that would be disappointed if this thing went out to sea as there are people who are hoping it never touches land.
Uh .... your point?

[or perhaps just an observation?]
Quoting 625. 62901IL:

The last time the Bahamas had a Hurricane Warning? I believe it was Sandy.
Erika..
Quoting 608. BahaHurican:
Hey, Ann. Didn't realize you had moved ..... I'm sure hoping you don't get the hurricane force winds down there. I saw 5 - 10 inches of rain with isolated 20 inches associated with Joaquin, and I was reminded of Noel ..... NOT a good thought .....

Stay safe and keep us posted!


Thanks Baha, moved last February. I sure hope not as well as up to now my landlord has done nothing. Flooding is sure to be a problem, Exuma floods very easily. I will check in as and when I can. BEC and BTC permitting
NWS ‏@NWS 12m12 minutes ago

Your #hurricane emergency kit should include 3 days of food and water. http://www.ready.gov/kit #HurricaneSafety


taking off..
October 1 Phillies Game Moved to 12:05 p.m.
Press Release | 3:40 PM ET

The start time for Thursday's (October 1) scheduled game against the New York Mets has been moved to 12:05 p.m. due to expected inclement weather in the evening. The change was made at the direction of Major League Baseball due to the game's importance to postseason seeding for the New York Mets. All gates will open at 11:05 a.m. We apologize for any inconvenience caused by this change.

Fans holding tickets to Thursday's game (October 1) may use them for the 12:05 p.m. start or exchange them for complimentary tickets to any remaining Phillies home game this season or any 2016 home game (excluding Opening Day on April 11, 2016). Fans wishing to exchange for 2016 tickets may do so when single game tickets go on sale in February. Exchanges should occur by May 31, 2016.

Thursday's 12:05 p.m. game will be aired on Comcast SportsNet and broadcast on WIP and WPHT radio.
New England in the clear?
That's one nice eye.
Quoting 637. BrandenCordeiro:

New England in the clear?
Not yet...
Quoting 636. anthmiranda:

October 1 Phillies Game Moved to 12:05 p.m.
Press Release | 3:40 PM ET

The start time for Thursday's (October 1) scheduled game against the New York Mets has been moved to 12:05 p.m. due to expected inclement weather in the evening. The change was made at the direction of Major League Baseball due to the game's importance to postseason seeding for the New York Mets. All gates will open at 11:05 a.m. We apologize for any inconvenience caused by this change.

Fans holding tickets to Thursday's game (October 1) may use them for the 12:05 p.m. start or exchange them for complimentary tickets to any remaining Phillies home game this season or any 2016 home game (excluding Opening Day on April 11, 2016). Fans wishing to exchange for 2016 tickets may do so when single game tickets go on sale in February. Exchanges should occur by May 31, 2016.

Thursday's 12:05 p.m. game will be aired on Comcast SportsNet and broadcast on WIP and WPHT radio.


Just saw that on Metsblog also... Going to be an interesting week for MLB....
Quoting 634. ncstorm:

NWS ‏@NWS 12m12 minutes ago

Your #hurricane emergency kit should include 3 days of food and water. http://www.ready.gov/kit #HurricaneSafety


Personally i'd include a weeks worth of food.
Quoting 641. FunnelVortex:



Personally i'd include a weeks worth of food.
If not food, definitely water. Tap water sources are often contaminated or otherwise compromised after a hurricane.
This Tuesday I got a big physics test, biggest test of the semester thus far. Got to study and track at the same time.

Meanwhile it's thundering here, the rain threat begins now. Already under a Flood Watch.
Quoting 624. smog00:



I would argue that Sandy was so destructive, over such a large area, because it was extra-tropical; not in spite of it.


It was the storm surge that set this storm apart. It was also coupled with a high tide.
Nice new convective blow up... Also, appears to be an eye wobble to the SE? Interesting..

New convective flareup south of the eye...

Actually reading the text is so helpful. Unfortunately the pics represent 1000 words ..... :o/

2. p.m. Update:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight.

I wonder if it is possible for Joaquin to go south through the Windward passage around the ridge to its southwest
Maybe I'm wishcasting it doesn't come to N.E., but the main models steer it into NC or out to sea. Direct hit in N.E. becoming unlikely.
Quoting 637. BrandenCordeiro:

New England in the clear?
Quoting 647. BahaHurican:

Actually reading the text is so helpful. Unfortunately the pics represent 1000 words ..... :o/

2. p.m. Update:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight.


keep us posted on conditions thanks.
Quoting 641. FunnelVortex:



Personally i'd include a weeks worth of food.


And a case of beer!
Quoting 645. tornadodude:

Nice new convective blow up... Also, appears to be an eye wobble to the SE? Interesting..


Wonder if the MLL and LLC not quite 100% stacked?
655. JRRP
Checking in from Exuma. I've prepared as if I'm going to be isolated from the rest of the island for a day or two. My gut tells me this storm is going to plant itself in the cen. Bahamas and meander for a day or two. Combination of sandy and noel.
Also, 90L exists

NASA's GEOS-5 model runs far in the rears, this is all that is out so far of the 12Z run.
Quoting 641. FunnelVortex:



Personally i'd include a weeks worth of food.


I always have many weeks worth because you always end up sharing with those who weren't quite as prepared.
Quoting 648. stormpetrol:


I wonder if it is possible for Joaquin to go south through the Windward passage around the ridge to its southwest


Hell, it has been doing basically whatever it wants, might as well go all the way over and see whats left of Marty in the Pacific.......LOL
Quoting 642. BahaHurican:

If not food, definitely water. Tap water sources are often contaminated or otherwise compromised after a hurricane.


I purchased a Berkey (sp?) water purification system this year for this exact situation.
Looks to me like Joaquin is slowing down.
Quoting 655. JRRP:




Looking VERY symmetrical this afternoon..
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago

Doubt the 12Z EPS can get into NHC's 5-pm update reasoning but control, majority of ensembles closer to HRES op & non-landfall.
Quoting 663. DogtownMex:

Looks to me like Joaquin is slowing down.


It may just go around in circles for eternity..
Joaquin appears to be defying all the progs by taking a stroll due south in the last few frames.
A nuclear bomb of moisture going off south of the eye...



When this recent convective burst mellows out it should saturate the rest of the circulation with moisture... A pretty eye is sure to follow.
Will have to watch and see if any of the dropsonde data gets into the 18z ingest. Certainly expect it for 00z, and hopefully we'll have a stronger consensus.
Quoting 597. 62901IL:

I don't want to sound bossy when I say this, but the Florida doomcasters or whatever they're called need to stop.

I think its just one poster, who posts a LOT :)
Science simply does NOT support this thing hitting Florida.
Good evening...
Does anyone know what NYC will get from this storm? And is it still possible it could landfall near here or at NYC?
It looks like Joaquin is moving Southeast. I don't think any forecast had that in mind
De Plane........De Plane........is on the way!
OTS?
Quoting 667. BayFog:

Joaquin appears to be defying all the progs by taking a stroll due south in the last few frames.

Quoting 672. SandyCheeks13:

Does anyone know what NYC will get from this storm? And is it still possible it could landfall near here or at NYC?


Expect a mandatory evacuation order of Long Island tomorrow morning.
Quoting 673. WeatherConvoy:

It looks like Joaquin is moving Southeast. I don't think any forecast had that in mind
maybe its will start to more back to the east and going out to sea
Hopefully we'll get info from the plane in the 11pm update. I'm guessing the track is going to shift a couple hundred miles south for this 5pm update...but I would take it with a grain of salt.
Quoting 103. Webberweather53:

Here's a 500mb composite 1 day in advance of landfalling tropical cyclones that hit the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, & even New England from the southeast &/or at an (unusual) oblique angle. This setup looks eerily similar to the 0z z500 EPS forecast. Obviously, a lot of details to iron out & Joaquin may very well scoot harmlessly out to sea, but at this range, the synoptic pattern couldn't be much uglier than this with a massive ridge over Quebec, Ontario, & Atlantic Canada, an upper level trough axis to the west, with a formidable TC sitting directly underneath over the north-central Bahamas...



This is a post that bears repeating for those who are curious about track.

Quoting 119. barbamz:


Port Nassau webcam/Bahamas. Although this is still quite far away to the west from Joaquin's center, some effects of the outer banding are causing rain and wind now.
Also this, for those wanting to watch conditions in the NW Bahamas.
Quoting 129. Skyepony:

Looking ENE at Joaquin from shewp's wundercam in George Town, Bahamas.


Is there a link for this, Skye? TIA

Quoting 168. bucyouup68:



Show me one model this season that was even close to accurate....LOL
HRWF with Danny ... rock solid.
Quoting 672. SandyCheeks13:

Does anyone know what NYC will get from this storm? And is it still possible it could landfall near here or at NYC?

Sandy it is safe to say You are out of the proverbial woods! The way Joaquin is behaving i think its gone good bye
Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Expect a mandatory evacuation order of Long Island tomorrow morning.


I live in Queens, anything about that?
Quoting 662. klaatuborada:



I purchased a Berkey (sp?) water purification system this year for this exact situation.
Good move. I should consider something like that in the long term .... would be useful here all year round.
Quoting 612. 62901IL:



1985 Elena Dance?
It's possible but highly improbable. Elena certainly had a very odd track outcome.
Hurricane force winds reported in association with an early fall frontal system winding up over The Blob. Not forecast to come our way in California, but we are getting a nice steady light rain over the SF Bay Area as a result of that subtropical jet that developed off the coast over the past few days.


beware got a phishing warning just a bit ago. yesterday actually said the site was carrying a virus and to contact the spammer. happy weather
Quoting 670. avthunder:


I think its just one poster, who posts a LOT :)
Science simply does NOT support this thing hitting Florida.


Shoulda been here for Irene.......lol



if track is going to shift south again maybe its will hit miaim,fl
Any need to worry about this storm for Charleston, SC?
Portlight Featured wunderblog

Portlight Plans with others for Joaquin



With the forecast of Hurricane Joaquin possibly affecting the United States east coast, Portlight along with its partners at the American Red Cross and FEMA are readying to assist, co-ordinate and implement the Emergency Sheltering needs.



Lines of communication along with the signed letters of agreement/memorandum, have made todays open communication possible thru the Getting it Right Conferences Nationally and the experienced gained thru post Sandy and other recent Major weather related events.

FEMA and Portlight Strategies Sign Memorandum of Agreement


The lessons of the past have been a guide to right the efforts to better serve all of the community locally and regionally.

Disability stakeholders are also closely monitoring the needs of those who will need extra care and or time to possibly evacuate, or be sheltered inland as they are the Priority we all strive to plan for.



We will be updating and posting here all information we get from official sources as per the protocols.

Please listen closely to one's Local TV,Radio, and social media for official Emergency Management updates and directions for your area.

If one hasn't already made plans and gathered ones needed supplies,

Now is a good time to make that plan or ready your Family Hurricane Plan.

Hurricane Preparation 2015

************************************************* ********************

California Fires Sheltering update.

With the continuing battle of the forest fires in California, Portlight has been observing,advising and helping to meet the needs of those disabled and others as many are in rural areas.



After a review of the recent efforts there, portlight and the Office of Access and Functional Needs of the California Office of Emergency Services are doubling their efforts to ensure that all needs are being met in a timeful and caring way.

We want to thank the extended Portlight Family for all you do as well as those who support us financially and with volunteering too.



Hurricane Irene actual track and intensity.
Quoting 656. ExumaMET:

Checking in from Exuma. I've prepared as if I'm going to be isolated from the rest of the island for a day or two. My gut tells me this storm is going to plant itself in the cen. Bahamas and meander for a day or two. Combination of sandy and noel.
In other words, massive flooding redux .....

Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Expect a mandatory evacuation order of Long Island tomorrow morning.
Which one? Can't see anybody trying to fly out of there in this wx ... if you mean The Bahamas......

Quoting 681. SandyCheeks13:



I live in Queens, anything about that?


Queens is on Long Island, so...
The key to this system is if it makes it west of the 75th west longitude before it turns north. If it does that then I think it has a very good chance of making landfall.
Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Expect a mandatory evacuation order of Long Island tomorrow morning.

Where would the nearly 4 million people go?
Quoting 667. BayFog:

Joaquin appears to be defying all the progs by taking a stroll due south in the last few frames.



Almost seems east of south. Not sure how much of that is just an illusion.
Quoting 672. SandyCheeks13:

Does anyone know what NYC will get from this storm? And is it still possible it could landfall near here or at NYC?


Take a look at the models and the NHC track. You are still at risk in NYC. Check back in tomorrow and the next day and it might be somewhat clearer. Heavy rain and possible coastal flooding still a real possibility depending on where in NYC.
Someone mentioned earlier about the possible govt furlough, hurricane situation, like in House of Cards. Our odds are looking better than they ever did in 2013 of a Furlicane. During 2013 furlough we had Jerry. He only made it four days, to a Tropical Storm, never was expected to be a cane. He was born a day before furlough began.
It would appear that the "eye" is moving SE, or S, but probably more likely slowing down/almost stationary. The outflow to the NW of the satellite images looks like it's "negatively tilting" which to me would seem like it's getting ready to start going W to turn NW to go N.

To me...it looks like we're going to see some intensification very soon with some clearing of the eye and a better idea of what's actually happening.


just updated
702. 900MB
Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Expect a mandatory evacuation order of Long Island tomorrow morning.


Cmon. That is a legit question. Jury is out fr Georgia to out to sea. Most models point to the Carolinas. NYC is a little right to the center of middle of cone.
I don't think the system is stacked perfectly, it looks like the LLC and MLC are orbiting around each other... When the shear lowers more they should converge with your typical sexy eye revealing itself not too long after.

There is drier air on the west side of the eye, but the recent convective burst should take care of that.
Quoting 693. Gator13126:



Queens is on Long Island, so...


Queens is also part of NYC, oh no!!!
Quoting 693. Gator13126:



Queens is on Long Island, so...


When people refer to LI they think of outside of the boroughs, while all the boroughs are NYC. Plus would the evacuations be for coastal flooding or just in general?
Quoting 695. Grothar:



Well, as a native NY area resident, we were always kind of hoping Long Island would just float off into the Atlantic. Maybe it would run aground near Ireland.
Quoting 684. BayFog:

Hurricane force winds reported in association with an early fall frontal system winding up over The Blob. Not forecast to come our way in California, but we are getting a nice steady light rain over the SF Bay Area as a result of that subtropical jet that developed off the coast over the past few days.





Im in Soo Cal. We have had a wet summer......glad to see you getting some rain up there!
Quoting 679. BahaHurican:

Is there a link for this, Skye? TIA

Click on the picture..& you'll end up on the wundercam page.
Quoting 693. Gator13126:



Queens is on Long Island, so...


The only Long Island anyone would even need to consider evacuating is Long Island in the Bahamas. There are not mandatory evacuations for anywhere at this time, especially not Long Island New York. Where do you get your facts from? People come to this blog with serious inquiries about the weather, evacs, etc.
Quoting 694. Plaza23:

The key to this system is if it makes it west of the 75th west longitude before it turns north. If it does that then I think it has a very good chance of making landfall.
Trying to remember if there is some kind of "Hope" rule thingy for landfalling storms ....
Quoting 701. tampabaymatt:



just updated


That's on top of already ridiculously saturated ground.....bwa.
Quoting 708. Skyepony:


Click on the picture..& you'll end up on the wundercam page.
TYVM ..... going back to previous page now .... lol ....
Quoting 676. Gator13126:



Expect a mandatory evacuation order of Long Island tomorrow morning.

And you know this how?? I have not seen one news story even suggesting that an evacuation is imminent. Statements like this without corroboration from an emergency department borders on irresponsible.
Quoting 711. BahaHurican:

Trying to remember if there is some kind of "Hope" rule thingy for landfalling storms ....


The Bob Hope rule to make sure you have plenty of mixers and booze when they make landfall?
Quoting 692. BahaHurican:

In other words, massive flooding redux .....

Which one? Can't see anybody trying to fly out of there in this wx ... if you mean The Bahamas......




He means the one in New York. I don't like the nonchalant sarcasm coming from him....when this thing could pose a major threat.
Quoting 697. DogtownMex:



Take a look at the models and the NHC track. You are still at risk in NYC. Check back in tomorrow and the next day and it might be somewhat clearer. Heavy rain and possible coastal flooding still a real possibility depending on where in NYC.


Thank you. I'm like glued to this storm ever since it said "NYC in the way" since Sunday.

Quoting 702. 900MB:



Cmon. That is a legit question. Jury is out fr Georgia to out to sea. Most models point to the Carolinas. NYC is a little right to the center of middle of cone.


Yeah exactly. People are saying its either NC/Virginia or out to sea but NYC and NJ is like straight up in the middle. Can't tell if its just there because of the models are spread out or its because there is still a chance. Even the Weather.com is showing the possibility of aiming in Northern NJ/NYC.
Quoting 512. Autistic2:



as a former first responder "30 years ago" If you are told to lave and don't, please don't call for help and ask someone to risk their lives over our ego or whatever made you stay behind. Stay and ride the results of your actions. 1. You Die. 2 you get one he__ of a story for the kids and grandkids. 3. You get hurt bad, live, and option 2


Story went around here before Francis. On the barrier island, there were some folks that said no thank, i will stay, the Deputy pulled out a big sharpie and said give me your arm... taken aback, they said why... because we want to be able to identify your body.... they changed their minds. But what you say is SO true.. you cannot expect responders to risk their lives because someone deliberately placed THEMSELVES in harms way.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4m4 minutes ago
Words of wisdom on Hurricane Joaquin, a storm to respect
Ok a few hours ago I was looking at the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season page to see if it updated with the 2 o'clock and I found that some troll put Joaquin as cat 5 with Katrina's winds and pressure. Good thing is I fixed it, but still whoever did that it was not even close to funny
Quoting 654. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Wonder if the MLL and LLC not quite 100% stacked?



Almost looks like it has 2 eyes, like the winner of a game of GO

Sep 30, 2015
Raleigh, N.C.

Governor Pat McCrory has ordered state agencies to prepare for possible flooding ahead of a variety of weather systems, including Hurricane Joaquin, and is urging all North Carolinians to do the same.

“We’ve had a fair amount of rain during the past week and the ground is saturated in many places,” Governor McCrory said. “The combination of wind gusts from various weather systems and any additional rain from Joaquin could lead to downed trees and power outages in many areas, not just the coast. If you haven’t downloaded the free ReadyNC app for real-time weather, flooding, traffic and shelter information, now is the perfect time to do so.”

Public Safety Secretary Frank L. Perry said emergency management officials are coordinating with local officials to ensure they have what they need and are going through checklists to be sure their teams and supplies are ready. He encouraged all North Carolinians to do the same: review emergency plans, gather or update emergency supplies and stay tuned to local news.

“We can expect flooding in poor-drainage spots and low-lying areas,” State Emergency Management Director Mike Sprayberry cautioned. “Regardless of the impact of Hurricane Joaquin, North Carolina has the potential for life-threatening flooding within the next week. We don’t know yet how much or how widespread the flooding will be, but we know there will be flooding.”

Sprayberry stressed that all areas of the state are susceptible to flooding, not just coastal areas. To ensure your family is storm ready, he suggested

Be sure your emergency supplies kit has enough bottled water and non-perishable food to sustain each family member for three to seven days. Include a weather radio, flashlight, extra batteries, toiletries, change of clothes, blankets or sleeping bag, rain gear and appropriate footwear. Also include copies of important documents, such as birth certificates and insurance policies.
Plan for your pets. Gather supplies for your pet and put them in an easily-accessible container.
Prepare your home. Clean out gutters and clear property of debris that could damage buildings in strong winds. Supplies, such as lumber and shutters, should be purchased now, and window casings pre-drilled.
Determine if you are in a flood plain or flood-prone area.
Know evacuation routes for your area. Listen to local officials and evacuate as instructed.
Stay tuned to local news for the latest advisories from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center (NHC), as well as state and local emergency management officials.

Secretary Perry said most storm-related deaths are caused by flooding. “If you see standing water, do not try to walk or drive through it,” he cautioned. “Remember: turn around, don’t drown.”
gfs for years it moved storms over us only to change it mind. this goes way back too. could be the flop of the decade? i hope so. e.cen fl.
Eye keeps being covered by new anvils

The new water vapor map tells you exactly where the storm is headed...look out everyone in the mid-atlantic and prepare.
Quoting 681. SandyCheeks13:



I live in Queens, anything about that?


Ignore them, the threat still exists from Joaquin so definitely keep an eye out but it's looking better for NYC. We are getting truck tons of rain, that much you can bet on.
Quoting 667. BayFog:

Joaquin appears to be defying all the progs by taking a stroll due south in the last few frames.



It might just be a wobble
Quoting 713. BahaHurican:

TYVM ..... going back to previous page now .... lol ....

I added it to my current blog entry too.
730. 882MB
Hurricane Joaquin

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.3°N 73.1°W
Moving: SW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
Quoting 696. largeeyes:



Almost seems east of south. Not sure how much of that is just an illusion.


Its definitely south. Whether its east or just a wobble we wont know for a few hours. I'd say this system moving south instead of west is a positive if you do not want it to hit the US.
Looks like Jaoquin is about to put on another burst of intensification. Could be the wobble south we saw.
more warnings for the Bah, could seFL see a ts watch hmm..
Quoting 714. MrNatural:


And you know this how?? I have not seen one news story even suggesting that an evacuation is imminent. Statements like this without corroboration from an emergency department borders on irresponsible.
Uh ... I think he was being sarcastic ....

Quoting 726. NJHurricanez:

The new water vapor map tells you exactly where the storm is headed...look out everyone in the mid-atlantic and prepare.

Ryan Maue posted a gif that showed Joaquin on the ECWMF ensembles going west.Interesting none the less...

Delaware Running Co. ‏@DelRunCo 1m1 minute ago
Hurricane Joaquin is making it tough on races this weekend. Our race The Brandywine Bend is still on!
Impact!



5:00 cone
Quoting 699. anthmiranda:

It would appear that the "eye" is moving SE, or S, but probably more likely slowing down/almost stationary. The outflow to the NW of the satellite images looks like it's "negatively tilting" which to me would seem like it's getting ready to start going W to turn NW to go N.

To me...it looks like we're going to see some intensification very soon with some clearing of the eye and a better idea of what's actually happening.
Nope it's going more south west
NHC says 225 degrees of to the sw at 8




Quoting 733. chrisdscane:

more warnings for the Bah, could seFL see a ts watch hmm..
Excellent changes .... way to go, Bah Met Office. ...
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island and Bimini.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island and Bimini

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island,
Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but
excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands.
ECMWF



GFS

Quoting 730. 882MB:

Hurricane Joaquin

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 30
Location: 24.3°N 73.1°W
Moving: SW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph


Moving faster to the SW, interesting.
Joaquin
Quoting 742. Grothar:

ECMWF



GFS




Both are GFS :)
746. 900MB
Quoting 741. thomaskerr1027:



Bending!

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of
the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
748. 7544
if this thing keeps moving ssw it gonna wind up in the good ole herbert box! stay tuned anything can change at any hour imo
Please don't focus on the center line, anywhere in the cone is fair game, but should it take a track down the middle, that is the absolute worst case scenario for the Chesapeake Bay as Joaquin would force the storm surge well inland. Coastal inundation would be an almost certainty, unless this came in at low tide. Of course the cone is going to shift left or right leading up to landfall.

Quoting 706. Gator13126:



Well, as a native NY area resident, we were always kind of hoping Long Island would just float off into the Atlantic. Maybe it would run aground near Ireland.



In the past 50 years, Long Island has made a few attempts to separate from NY. The closest they have come is the official status of its own Independent Economic Growth.

And watch it. I was born in Lloyd Harbor :):)
glad to see some New England and East coast people on here today, little bit of a different crowd.
Baha, where are you under this thing?

Quoting 748. 7544:

if this thing keeps moving ssw it gonna wind up in the good ole herbert box! stay tuned anything can change at any hour imo


Do you know where the Hebert Boxes are? Pretty far away
Waiting for the latest local report.
Rick Knabb on TWC now..
Quoting 742. Grothar:

ECMWF



GFS




They're both GFS Gro. I got worried that there was some sort of uber consensus going on!
Quoting 748. 7544:

if this thing keeps moving ssw it gonna wind up in the good ole herbert box! stay tuned anything can change at any hour imo


Whats the herbert box? LOL
Quoting 742. Grothar:

ECMWF



GFS




Whoops! I hate when that happens! Posted the same map twice.
Time to cut the fake drama and unsubstantiated forecast speculation, youngins.
People popping in to read cannot tell the difference between what's real and what some of you imagine to be funny. Heck, some of us who read here all the time can't tell the difference. But this IS the real thing - for the Bahamas and maybe more.
:)
Quoting 718. indianrivguy:



Story went around here before Francis. On the barrier island, there were some folks that said no thank, i will stay, the Deputy pulled out a big sharpie and said give me your arm... taken aback, they said why... because we want to be able to identify your body.... they changed their minds. But what you say is SO true.. you cannot expect responders to risk their lives because someone deliberately placed THEMSELVES in harms way.


But they will...



Cudjoe Key, Florida during Wilma.

Link
"NFL officials are exploring options involving Sunday’s Eagles-Redskins game in case Hurricane Joaquin impacts the D.C. area this weekend, the Washington Post reported Wednesday.

The league is “monitoring the forecast and having discussions with both teams,” NFL spokesman Greg Aiello told the paper."

Source - http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/09/30/hu rricane-joaquin-forcing-nfl-to-explore-options-for -eagles-redskins/
Quoting 745. FunnelVortex:



Both are GFS :)


So I got a phone call in the middle of my Imgur. That is the last time I plus you :) :P

Corrected. Go delete your post so people won't think I've lost it.
Watch out Cam. 5% chance of TS winds for your house!...

That track depicted by the NHC would be rather ugly for me here in central VA. Lots of storm surge being pushed up the James, Tappahannock, and Potomac Rivers with that track.
Quoting 758. DogtownMex:



Whoops! I hate when that happens! Posted the same map twice.


grrrrr!
Sorry, haven't been here in a while, but question: At what times do the cones get updated?
Let's hope not

Quoting 661. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hell, it has been doing basically whatever it wants, might as well go all the way over and see whats left of Marty in the Pacific.......LOL
Quoting 757. nygiants:



Whats the herbert box? LOL


Hebert
771. 7544
Quoting 764. GeoffreyWPB:

Watch out Cam. 5% chance of TS winds for your house!...




those keep moving further west too wheres camoki lol
Not much to say at this point except to note that the Bahamas are in for a big hit (particularly rainwise) and that folks from the Carolinas all the way up into New England need to take this storm seriously.

If the merger with the baroclininc trof does occur (and particularly over land), you are going to see some massive flooding (flash flooding and river overflows)...............Wind might be the least of the problems downstream. If I lived in the current cone, I would be definately be looking at starting to collect sand bags to protect my property if flooding is an issue were you live.
I'm really having some issues with the intensity forecast. NHC is really being adamant that Joaquin will become extra tropical before it makes landfall. They wrote after 72 hours that this system would see cold air intrusion, shear, and land interaction.

However, 72 hours from now is still Saturday at 5pm. And based on the cone track, the system would still be in the middle of the Atlantic not that close to any land.

Do you guys believe this system if it does make landfall along the outer banks or Delmarva will still have its tropical characteristics?
Does anyone see the eye better in that last frame, 20:45???
Quoting 755. ncstorm:

Rick Knabb on TWC now..



we are going to need a bigger boat!
And as noted below, all of the mariners and boat owners up Chesapeake Bay and on up need to start looking at the option of safe harbors or trying down their boats, etc......................A potential nightmare for the marine interests.
Joaquin (11L) - AF309
High Density (5), Recco (11)
Geopotential Height: 7,383 meters (24,222 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 409.4 mb
Location: 158 statue miles (254 km) to the S (175°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
The more this thing moves to the south and ssw the less happy I feel. It's currently only 1 degree latitude north of my location. 23.27 75.39
I'm not wish casting but doesn't everyone think from Miami all the way up to NE should watch this?
It's getting a little noticeable that a storm is moving SW so fast!
I'm not saying/ advocating for FL landfall but if this doesn't move N soon.. We may feel some impacts along the coast.
Does anyone agree?
This storm is tricky
Quoting 763. Grothar:



So I got a phone call in the middle of my Imgur. That is the last time I plus you :) :P

Corrected. No delete your post so people won't think I've lost it.


Sorry Grother by the time I posted 4 people had already picked up on your error. Fast blog today.
Quoting 757. nygiants:



Whats the herbert box? LOL
It's Hebert. Not Herbert. It's a theory about hurricane track, and this storm is not near there or heading there on the current forecast track. Please click image for details at wiki.

image credit: wikipedia commons

(Oops. Link fixed.)
Quoting 774. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Does anyone see the eye better in that last frame, 20:45???


The eye has been playing peekaboo all day
up to 8mph, fear this will make it into the Central Bahamas.

Quoting 770. Grothar:



Hebert


You forgot to include pronunciation Gro...

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The first stop is the Bahamas and I do not like the look of that tightening eye at the moment:

787. JRRP
Flood Warning for New Hanover Co, it's been thundering for several minutes.

Probably won't be the last of such warnings.
Quoting 759. Barefootontherocks:

Time to cut the fake drama and unsubstantiated forecast speculation, youngins.
People popping in to read cannot tell the difference between what's real and what some of you imagine to be funny. Heck, some of us who read here all the time can't tell the difference. But this IS the real thing - for the Bahamas and maybe more.
:)


Excellent reminder Barefoot. Even while I can not post much due to academic responsibilities, I refrain from posting anything on the storm other than objective facts because I am not experienced in tropical systems nor am I a degreed, practicing expert.
Quoting 788. win1gamegiantsplease:

Flood Warning for New Hanover Co, it's been thundering for several minutes.

Probably won't be the last of such warnings.

Left a mess here.

How are we supposed to handle Joaquin?

791. vis0
blog is at hyper-speed
my 2cents as to JQ on my ml-d reset pg, pg3 cmmnt#138 warning i ise my theories DO NOT USE my explanation or members words as official notice.  Use NOAA or WxU 's official prognostications for alerts as it might not be perfect but NOAA has people working hard and its the best (cutback$) can buy and experience can enlighten.
Quoting 772. weathermanwannabe:

Not much to say at this point except to note that the Bahamas are in for a big hit (particularly rainwise) and that folks from the Carolinas all the way up into New England need to take this storm seriously.

If the merger with the baroclininc trof does occur (and particularly over land), you are going to see some massive flooding (flash flooding and river overflows)...............Wind might be the least of the problems downstream. If I lived in the current cone, I would be definately be looking at starting to collect sand bags to protect my property if flooding is an issue were you live.


I'm concerned about ANY wind associated with Jaoquin even if it's a near miss here in Richmond VA. We have seen so much rain over the past week (with a LOT more on the way Friday/Saturday before Jaoquin) so an already saturated ground, a hurricane would only add insult to injury. We went through this exact same scenario when Isabel rolled through, as the remnants of TS Henri put down a deluge over us for a couple days a week prior to Isabel's landfall.
793. wpb
nhc forecast may bend more west with nc landfall.stronger storm
not sure college and pro football schedule but dont think they will play if hurricane watch is posted in games vacinity
on friday with warnings saturday sunday
794. wpb
redskins play home sunday
virgina tech,nc st,duke,wake forest,clemson,maryland may be
in watch or warning area
tough for visiting teams to fly in and get out
some or all above games may be rescheled
Quoting 742. Grothar:

ECMWF



GFS




That GFS would have onshore winds along most of the northeast for a LONG time...
Quoting 792. tropicfreak:



I'm concerned about ANY wind associated with Jaoquin even if it's a near miss here in Richmond VA. We have seen so much rain over the past week (with a LOT more on the way Friday/Saturday before Jaoquin) so an already saturated ground, a hurricane would only add insult to injury. We went through this exact same scenario when Isabel rolled through, as the remnants of TS Henri put down a deluge over us for a couple days a week prior to Isabel's landfall.


In the exact same area as you, I think we went over that, but I couldn't find your response. This is what I'm worried about. I'd rather a lot of wind than rain from JQ, my yard was nearly flooded just yesterday...can't imagine what would happen if we got 6 inches in 2 days. I don't have flood insurance!