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Dujuan Slams into Taiwan; TD 11 Forms in Northwest Atlantic

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:05 PM GMT on September 28, 2015

The center of Typhoon Dujuan slammed into the northeast coast of Taiwan near the rural township of Nan’ao at 5:40 pm Monday local time (5:41 am EDT Monday). Dujuan’s highest 1-minute sustained winds were 140 mph at the final advisory (0600 GMT or 2 pm local time Monday) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) prior to its landfall. Using a different interval for top sustained winds, the Hong Kong Observatory classified Dujuan as a super typhoon. Dujuan was a spectacularly well-structured annular storm as it approached Taiwan, and satellite loops showed little sign of weakening prior to landfall, so Dujuan likely came onshore as a Category 4 typhoon. En route to Taiwan, Dujuan produced a record 181-mph (81.1 m/s) wind gust at the southern Japanese island of Yonagunijima, according to weather.com and the Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 1. A stunning true-color view of Typhoon Dujuan from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite at sunrise on Sunday, September 27, about 24 hours before the typhoon struck Taiwan. Image credit: JMA, courtesy Dan Lindsey.


Figure 2. A close-up visible image of Typhoon Dujuan at 500-meter resolution, again from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite near sunrise on Sunday, September 27. Image credit: JMA, courtesy Dan Lindsey.


Figure 3. An enhanced infrared image from the MTSAT satellite of Typhoon Dujuan at 0801 GMT Monday, September 28, less than two hours before Dujuan made landfall on Taiwan’s northeast coast. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The powerful right-hand eyewall of Dujuan passed near the urbanized area of Yilan County as Dujuan made landfall. A wind gust of 153 mph (68.4 meters per second) was reported at Su’ao Township, about 20 miles south of Yilan City. At 1500 GMT (11 pm local time or 11:00 am EDT Monday), Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB) placed Dujuan at 24.0°N and 120.6°E, or about 70 miles south-southwest of Taipei, which was experiencing the northern edge of the eyewall’s heavy rain. The typhoon angled further toward the west-southwest than expected during its trek over Taiwan, helping to spare Taipei from the worst potential impacts. At 1200 GMT Monday, the JTWC reported that Dujuan’s top sustained 1-minute winds were down to 115 mph. The CWB reported at 1500 GMT that the minimal central pressure at 1500 GMT had risen to 945 millibars, from 925 millibars at 1200 GMT.


Figure 4. A woman uses an umbrella against strong wind and rain brought by Typhoon Dujuan at Tamshui district, New Taipei City on September 28, 2015. More than 7,000 people were evacuated in Taiwan as Dujuan swirled towards the island, gathering strength as it bore down on the east coast. Heavy rain and wind struck the Taipei area well ahead of Dujuan’s core. Image credit: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 5. Radar imagery at 11:18 pm local time (11:18 am EDT) Monday, September 28, showed heavy rains from Typhoon Dujuan still enveloping most of Taiwan, with outer bands stretching to the coast of China. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Torrential rains have been falling over most of Taiwan, with particularly heavy amounts likely over east-facing northern slopes and west-facing southern slopes. Totals as high as 30 inches have already been reported. By Tuesday morning, Dujuan should be making landfall on China’s east coast as a rapidly decaying Category 1 typhoon.

Heavy rains can still be expected as Dujuan recurves into the Yangtze River valley from Tuesday into Wednesday, and these could inflict a major disaster in their own right. Dujuan is a bit stronger than Typhoon Soudelor, which struck Taiwan on August 7, but Soudelor’s track across Taiwan and into China is quite similar to the projections for Dujuan. Soudelor caused at least 26 deaths in China compared to at least 8 in Taiwan, and estimated losses in China of at least $3 billion were much greater than the reported $95 million US in agricultural damage in Taiwan. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Dujuan to strike the China coast within 30 miles of Soudelor’s landfall point near Putian City.

TD 11 worth watching in Northwest Atlantic
Tropical Depression 11 took shape last night in the Northwest Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda. In the grip of moderate to strong northwesterly wind shear (around 20 knots), TD 11 is struggling to organize itself, with an exposed low-level center on Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are fairly widespread and have persisted into Monday morning, beyond the typical nighttime convective maximum. The depression is over very warm sea-surface temperatures of around 30°C (86°F), about 1°C above average. As TD 11 moves slowly northwest over the next 2-3 days, it will remain over quite warm SSTs, but wind shear will remain on the strong side, denting TD 11’s potential for growth. Dynamical models are in general agreement in bringing TD 11 to tropical storm strength over the next several days. The high-resolution HWRF model is particularly bullish, with its 00Z and 06Z runs bringing TD 11 to hurricane status by later this week.


Figure 6. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression 11.


Figure 7. The five-day forecast for TD 11 from the National Hurricane Center.

Upper-level steering currents forecast for later this week feature strong southerly flow between an eastern U.S. trough and a western Atlantic ridge, which suggests TD 11 (or its remnants) should be heading in the general direction of southern New England toward the end of this week. The high-resolution HWRF and GFDL models lean the most strongly toward a potential landfall threat for Long Island by around Friday, while the global-scale ECMWF and GFS tend to keep TD 11 further to the east and considerably weaker. The official NHC outlook intensifies TD 11 only to minimal tropical storm status and transitions it to post-tropical status by Friday morning as it approaches New England, where it should be merging with a frontal zone. The best global models are typically more reliable than the high-resolution mesoscale models beyond about 2-3 days, but the newly upgraded HWRF has demonstrated impressive skill on several storms this year. TD 11 bears watching, as there seems at least a modest possibility of the system approaching the northeast U.S. coast as a subtropical or tropical storm.



Figure 8. Radar-estimated rainfall from 99L from the Pensacola, Florida radar ending at noon EDT Monday showed several areas of 6+ inches of rain had fallen.

99L in Gulf of Mexico bringing heavy rain to the Gulf Coast
A Flash Flood Warning is posted for the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola and Flood Watches are up for the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Sarasota, Florida as an area of low pressure (Invest 99L) centered at 11 am EDT Monday over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, about 300 miles west-northwest of Key West, moves north-northeastwards at about 10 mph. A channel of low-level moisture running from 99L toward an upper-level low in Texas combined with upper-level moisture filtering in from Tropical Storm Marty (see below) to bring torrential rains of 7.50" to Mobile, Alabama on Sunday, making it their 10th wettest calendar day on record. This is the first time since records began in 1871 that the city has seen two 7+ inch rainfall days in one year; the city had 7.28" of rain on April 12. 99L is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends from western Cuba northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but no well-defined surface circulation exists, as seen on satellite loops. A separate non-tropical low pressure system associated with the upper low can be seen over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and is bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Texas and Western Louisiana coast. By Tuesday morning, the center of 99L will push inland over the Florida Panhandle. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots should limit the potential for 99L to organize into a named storm, and our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis are showing little development of this system. 99L will likely bring heavy rains of 2 - 3" from Southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30%. The Hurricane Hunters were in the air on Monday afternoon to investigate 99L.


Figure 9. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Marty approaching Mexico as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Sunday, September 27, 2015, at 3:30 pm EDT. At the time, Marty had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Marty a dangerous heavy rain threat for Mexico's Pacific coast
Tropical Storm Marty has intensified to just below hurricane strength, with top winds of 70 mph at 11 am EDT Monday, as the storm drifts northwards at 3 mph towards the Pacific coast of Mexico to the northwest of Acapulco. With Marty stuck in a region of weak steering currents and likely to remain just offshore through Wednesday, the storm is a dangerous storm for the Pacific coast of Mexico. Heavy rains of 6 - 12" are likely to cause dangerous flooding and mudslides today through Wednesday. As of 8 am EDT Sunday, Petacalco on the coast received 3.62" of rain in 24 hours, though rainfall amounts for the 24-hour period ending on Monday morning were generally less than one inch along the Mexican coast. Further intensification of the storm appears unlikely, due to high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots, close proximity to the coast, and the potential for Marty to upwell cool water from the depths that will diminish the storm's energy supply. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Marty on Monday afternoon. The models are split on whether or not Marty will eventually make landfall this week, and the 3 to 5-day official forecast from NHC should be considered low-confidence.


Figure 10. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Niala skirting the Big Island of Hawaii as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Sunday, September 27, 2015, at approximately 4 pm EDT. At the time, Niala had top winds of 50 mph, but its low-level center had become exposed to view due to high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Niala spares Hawaii
Tropical Storm Niala passed about 150 miles south of the Big Island on Sunday, bringing a few heavy rain showers to the island, but not enough to cause flooding. The Flash Flood Watch for the island has been cancelled, but a High Surf Advisory remains in effect on Monday for waves of 5 to 8 feet along east and southeast facing shores of The Big Island. At 11 am EDT Monday, Niala had weakened to a tropical depression, and was moving west-southwest at 10 mph away from Hawaii. Niala should continue to weaken in the face of high wind shear, becoming a remnant low by Monday night.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. ricderr
Me thinks we are going to get spanked up here in the Maritimes. I have a "Juan" feeling".




well...you might want to get started on the "manuel" labor and get things readied
1002. fmbill
What a mess! But conducive atmosphere coming soon.

1003. Grothar
Where do you think AL90 will end up?

Quoting 1003. Grothar:

Where do you think AL90 will end up?


OTS
1005. Grothar
Quoting 991. Articuno:



well that's juan thing i can understand

(sorry, me and my terrible puns...)


That was 2/3 of a pun P - U!
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1007. Drakoen
Mid-range mayhem for the models = less confidence than yesterday as to where this system will give beyond 48 hours.
1008. GatorWX
Quoting 999. ricderr:

Good catch on 90L. I hadn't seen that yet.



they're my first read in the morning.......cus if all i took were blog entries....well.....i don't think i need to go there....LOL


40% for ole Ida in the 5 day outlook. :/
1009. fmbill
Quoting 1003. Grothar:

Where do you think AL90 will end up?



Now would be a good time for conjecture. LOL! The current models aren't much help with this one. As it was said before...I really feel for the forecasters at the NHC.
1010. Grothar
If 90L organizes and becomes a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean:

1.) Will it become Ida, again? (because it reorganized from a pre-existing system that was formerly Tropical Storm "Ida.")

2.) or ... will it become "Kate?" (The next name on the 2015 list.)
Quoting 975. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Does NHC always follow these messages.

Not if recon finds something else.
Quoting 1007. Drakoen:

Mid-range mayhem for the models = less confidence than yesterday as to where this system will give beyond 48 hours.
Most models now seem to be in a agreement that Jauquin will turn into a formidable hurricane.Track is still up in the air (literally)
Quoting 982. Articuno:



40KTs is closer to 45mph than it is to 50.


40 x 1.15 = 46

Bingo
Quoting 1011. Stormwatch247:

If 90L organizes and becomes a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean:

1.) Will it become Ida, again? (because it reorganized from a pre-existing system that was formerly T. Storm "Ida")

2.) or ... will it become "Kate?" (The next name on the 2015 list.)

Hmmm i would say KATE, only for the fact that the circulation had become elongated, and dissipated.
1017. fmbill
Nice rain event setting up for the entire east coast.
1018. Grothar
Quoting 1004. Camerooski:

OTS


It sleeps with the fishes.
1019. fmbill
Quoting 1018. Grothar:



It sleeps with the fishes.

Vicious rumors!
Quoting 1010. Grothar:




No matter what becomes of Joaquin, I'm going to get rained on end of this week
Sarasota - Bradenton Airport
3.15"
Southwest Regional Airport (Fort Myers)
2.12"
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0615 AM EDT TUE 29 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-125 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....ADDED
1. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0211A JOAQUIN
C. 29/1315Z
D. 26.6N 71.2W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....FURTHER TASKING ON JOAQUIN.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL TASKING ON THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
B. THE NOAA G-IV IS EXPECTED TO FLY 2 RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND JOAQUIN DEPARTING AT 29/1800Z AND 30/0600Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARTY.....CANCELED
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0217E MARTY
C. 29/1315Z
D. 16.7N 102.4W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS: THE NASA WB-57 IS PLANNING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM MARTY DEPARTING HARLINGEN
AT 29/1600Z. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
ANTICIPATED DROPSONDES: 65.
Quoting 991. Articuno:



well that's juan thing i can understand

(sorry, me and my terrible puns...)
Ha Ha ! Good morning Articuno!
Quoting 978. Doss2k:



Raleigh, NC


Not looking good, forecast shows a 90% chance of rain for Saturday. Keep in mind that's a 10% chance that it won't rain. This past Sunday we had a 90% chance of rain for our area and it was cloudy all day but didn't rain. I attended an outdoor wedding that day and it turned out great, sun peaked out from between the clouds just as the couple was saying their vows! The rain arrived later that night.
As per NWS/ILM

UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & T-STORMS THE RESULT. A
CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED VORT MAX OVER FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 30 PERCENT ON THE COAST TO
50-60 PERCENT INLAND...MAINLY LATE.


....

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY SURGE A BIT AND PW
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2.0 INCHES SO THE HIGHER POPS OF THE GFS SEEM
MORE APPEALING THAN THOSE OF THE WRF. INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS
SHOW MEAGER QPF SO THIS WAS PRESERVED IN THE FORECAST. DESPITE THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO SURGE INTO THE MID 80S
IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWING TO
TO THE LAGGING AND STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS
TO OUR WEST. MODELS ARE NOW AT ODDS WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT
BUT GIVEN THE BOUNDARY`S ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE
DIGGING NATURE OF THE TROUGH THE SLOWER WRF IS PREFERRED. IF TS
JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS A BIT IT COULD ALSO BUILD HEIGHTS OFF THE
COAST ENOUGH TO ARGUE FOR HOLDING UP THE FRONT`S PROGRESS AS WELL.
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS GOING TO BECOME IMPORTANT ON THURSDAY
SINCE ANY REMAINING AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY SEE SOME VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS PUSH IT OFFSHORE BY 06Z
OR SO BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS 850MB
WARM TONGUE DOESN`T REALLY GET OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PRETTY CONVOLUTED EARLY ON WITH COLD FRONT
STILL STALLED ALONG THE COAST, AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND A POSSIBLE WEAK INTERACTION WITH EITHER OR
BOTH WITH TS JOAQUIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SHUNTED OFF THE
COAST BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE AND EVEN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE WEEKEND DRIES OUT AND COOLS
DOWN BIT ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT COMPLIMENTS OF SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS.
1026. Grothar
Quoting 1004. Camerooski:

OTS


Cam, I'll be 90 years old. If you want to write to me, it can't be in computer code. I don't understand those abbreviations. TTYL.
Quoting 1023. Llamaluvr:

Ha Ha ! Good morning Articuno!


Good morning to you too!
Watching a close eye on Joaquin because some models actually have the rare scenario of a Delmarva landfall..
Link

anyone see the video of the tropical storm Joaquin

https://youtu.be/blfdNcIJ0rw
1031. MahFL
There already is flooding in VA, and the whole event has hardly started...

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CITY OF RADFORD IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
Quoting 1026. Grothar:



Cam, I'll be 90 years old. If you want to write to me, it can't be in computer code. I don't understand those abbreviations. TTYL.
gr8 b8 m8 i r8 8/8 anyways on Joaquin I just don't see it going out to sea eerily similiar to Superstorm Sandy, but the chance to be stronger...
1034. Doss2k
Quoting 1024. 69Viking:



Not looking good, forecast shows a 90% chance of rain for Saturday. Keep in mind that's a 10% chance that it won't rain. This past Sunday we had a 90% chance of rain for our area and it was cloudy all day but didn't rain. I attended an outdoor wedding that day and it turned out great, sun peaked out from between the clouds just as the couple was saying their vows! The rain arrived later that night.


Yeah unfortunately every update for the past few days has just gotten worse every time so the trend is not great. I am just holding out hope that there is a scenario where the two gulf systems have sped off to the NE and Joaquin remains far enough offshore that the rain shield isnt over Raleigh. The other issues becomes flying out sunday into Philly and then onto Athens if Joaquin makes a NE landfall. What a nightmare :(
Quoting 1031. MahFL:

There already is flooding in VA, and the whole event has hardly started...

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CITY OF RADFORD IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
A good portion of the state is under a flash flood watch right now. We have had rain in Pittsylvania County now for about 4 days straight. Any water deficit we had is now long gone.lol
Quoting 1031. MahFL:

There already is flooding in VA, and the whole event has hardly started...

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CITY OF RADFORD IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
SOUTHWESTERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...


Yep, just starting. Going to be a crazy week all up and down the eastern seaboard.
Quoting 983. ricderr:

so with (edit) jouquin forming and 99l only having a 10 percent chance and soon to interact with land....looks like the NHC...once again.....knew what they were doing yesterday.....


now that 90L has entered the picture....could we see 11 named storms or more this season?


99L only has a 10% chance of developing. I guess I misunderstood earlier postings.
1039. bwi
The Guardian has some video of people getting blown around from the typhoon in Taiwan. Probably not the smartest to be out on your motorbike or waiting in the busline in 100kph winds! Although to be fair, Taiwanese people are pretty chill about typhoon winds -- flooding is usually the biggest problem.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/sep/2 9/typhoon-dujuan-high-winds-blow-people-off-feet-t aiwan-video
1040. K8eCane
Good Gosh...seems to be a forecasters nightmare unfolding here
Expect Joaquin cone to shift significantly farther to the RIGHT
1041. Patrap
G'morn Sheldon's..are we at DOOM-CON 3 yet?
Looks like Naples, Florida is getting some much needed rain. It's one of the areas that has missed out on a lot of the heavy rain during September across a lot of S.W. Florida.


i am starting to see the center!
1044. fmbill
12Z NAM brings Joaquin closer to the Bahamas before beginning the turn north.

48hrs
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...JOAQUIN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 70.8 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
1046. ricderr
Jim Cantore
4 hrs ·
‪#‎Joaquin‬ is sheared from the northwest, but wouldn't surprise me as shear weakens (green) in time it becomes a cane. http://t.co/69yEY87RYh
Quoting 1042. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like Naples, Florida is getting some much needed rain. It's one of the areas that has missed out on a lot of the heavy rain during September across a lot of S.W. Florida.



Looking for an update from Nea.
Wow. Just checked in. Soooo, our boy Joaquin isn't Sandy redux?
Quoting 1039. bwi:

The Guardian has some video of people getting blown around from the typhoon in Taiwan. Probably not the smartest to be out on your motorbike or waiting in the busline in 100kph winds! Although to be fair, Taiwanese people are pretty chill about typhoon winds -- flooding is usually the biggest problem.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/sep/2 9/typhoon-dujuan-high-winds-blow-people-off-feet-t aiwan-video


I saw numerous pictures of them holding umbrellas...when has that ever worked in a typhoon/hurricane?
Quoting 1044. fmbill:

12Z NAM brings Joaquin closer to the Bahamas before beginning the turn north.

48hrs



Interesting that the NAM weakens the system as it moves towards the Bahamas.
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern
of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24
hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side
of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The
upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of
the system, and restricted over the northern part of the
circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt,
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force
plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should
provide a better estimate of intensity.

Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues
to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in
this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an
overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72
hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern,
but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should
allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This
pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the
deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good
likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas,
and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The
00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns
the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond
72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous
forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5
days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.

The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease
in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening,
which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed
predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests
that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
1052. fmbill
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern
of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24
hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side
of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The
upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of
the system, and restricted over the northern part of the
circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt,
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force
plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should
provide a better estimate of intensity.

Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues
to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in
this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an
overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72
hours.
Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern,
but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should
allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This
pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the
deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good
likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas,
and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The
00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns
the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond
72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous
forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5
days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.

The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease
in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening,
which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed
predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests
that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH


Forecaster Pasch

H
Not really worried about the setup possibilities for another couple of days. Got school thingies to do through Thursday. By then we should have a much better idea, though the eastward shift is consistent with the latest GFS and Euro runs.


edit: the graphic changed after the cone and advisory was updated
and significantly slower at 4 and 5
days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.


very low forecast !!! this mean anything still happern
1055. K8eCane


WEIRDEST cone ive ever seen
Quoting 1053. win1gamegiantsplease:

Currently in the 10-20% range, but not really worried about the setup possibilities for another couple of days. Got school thingies to do through Thursday. By then we should have a much better idea, though the eastward shift is consistent with the latest GFS and Euro runs.

It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low. read it
1058. will45
Quoting 1055. K8eCane:



WEIRDEST cone ive ever seen



bottom one looks like a light bulb :-)
1059. fmbill
Quoting 1055. K8eCane:



WEIRDEST cone ive ever seen
I don't understand why they dont make the cone larger to extend the Bahamas into the cone, considering they have it approach the Bahamas super close, ntm once that shear drops it could be a powerful storm...
ETA of first "Joaquin is gonna hit S Fla" comment??
1062. LargoFl


Quoting 1062. LargoFl:






More models make it a hurricane...
1064. fmbill
90L
Im sorry but the GFS should be thrown out, I mean seriously they have Joaquin weakening from now on.... Anyone can understand that Joaquin will strengthen immensely from where it is now...
Quoting 1061. BobinTampa:

ETA of first "Joaquin is gonna hit S Fla" comment??


LOL! and the Andrew references will follow.
1067. LargoFl
I have to say, if anyone has been paying attention to the NAM the past couple days, it has done a great job of forecasting the path of Joaquin.
It predicted a general westerly track with the system stalling near the Bahamas.

Now I don't know about its intensity forecast, but it's overall forecast path has been very good.
Quoting 1063. FunnelVortex:



More models make it a hurricane...
It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.
1070. fmbill
99L
right now the national hurricane center said It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.
Quoting 1068. Sfloridacat5:

I have to say, if anyone has been paying attention to the NAM the past couple days, it has done a great job of forecasting the path of Joaquin.
It predicted a general westerly track with the system stalling near the Bahamas.

Now I don't know about it's intensity forecast, but it's overall forecast path has been very good.

thumbs up to ncstorm for posting this!
Quoting 1065. Camerooski:

Im sorry but the GFS should be thrown out, I mean seriously they have Joaquin weakening from now on.... Anyone can understand that Joaquin will strengthen immensely from where it is now...


The NHC is actually agreeing with you on that one.
1074. 7544
Quoting 1061. BobinTampa:

ETA of first "Joaquin is gonna hit S Fla" comment??


might get closer before the turn than exspected
Quoting 1066. capeflorida:



LOL! and the Andrew references will follow.


We'll we've already had Hurricane Sandy references. Every time we have a system move north toward the U.S. it's going to be the next Hurricane Sandy.
1076. fmbill
Quoting 1067. LargoFl:



Between the model spread and the NHC low confidence, it sure makes it hard for emergency management to begin taking any pre-incident actions.



It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low. big mess here
Quoting 1074. 7544:



might get closer before the turn than exspected
I 100% agree with you the Bahamas needs to pay close attention as they may have a hurricane on their hands, and S FL should still keep an eye on it... I know I am, but I love weather soooo
Quoting 1053. win1gamegiantsplease:

Not really worried about the setup possibilities for another couple of days. Got school thingies to do through Thursday. By then we should have a much better idea, though the eastward shift is consistent with the latest GFS and Euro runs.


edit: the graphic changed after the cone and advisory was updated


Cannot help but feel that we may be in the bullseye up here...
Quoting 1076. fmbill:


Between the model spread and the NHC low confidence, it sure makes it hard for emergency management to begin taking any pre-incident actions.
Chris Christie will pull a Rick Scott and evacuate everyone in 5 hrs...
1081. sar2401
Word of wisdom out of Birmingham this morning, just in case anyone thinks they have this pattern figured out. I have the feeling Grantham would like to take a ballbat to the computer running the models. :-)

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST DISRUPTED THE ATMOSPHERE FARTHER
INLAND. QPF OUTPUT FROM THESE MODELS IS ESSENTIALLY USELESS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OUR UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE DOWNSTREAM STRATIFORM RAIN
FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY
SLOT UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE FETCH OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD.
THESE FACTORS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN IS
UNLIKELY FOR OUR AREA TODAY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED MOSTLY
INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADEQUATE DIURNAL HEATING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

87/GRANTHAM
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1083. fmbill
Quoting 1077. hurricanes2018:




It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low. big mess here


That's why you are here, isn't it? LOL!
Quoting 1060. Camerooski:

I don't understand why they dont make the cone larger to extend the Bahamas into the cone, considering they have it approach the Bahamas super close, ntm once that shear drops it could be a powerful storm...


I've never seen a storm make a 90 degree turn like they are forecasting. This could very well make the typical rounded turn and still affect parts of the Bahamas.
1085. hydrus
Quoting 1075. Sfloridacat5:



We'll we've already had Hurricane Sandy references. Every time we have a system move north toward the U.S. it's going to be the next Hurricane Sandy.
Greetings 5.. There will likely be some flooding, but nothing close to Sandy. This could be a serious event for some folks. I am waiting to see what the 12 z has to show.

1086. MahFL
Quoting 1075. Sfloridacat5:



We'll we've already had Hurricane Sandy references. Every time we have a system move north toward the U.S. it's going to be the next Hurricane Sandy.


Er that would be Superstorm Sandy....
1087. csmda
Quoting 943. 69Viking:



I'm 16 miles East of Destin and picked up over 6 inches of rain yesterday, gauge holds 6 inches and it was overflowing when I arrived home from work yesterday so not sure on the exact total.


We got 12.55" here in Destin, so you guys definitely got more than 6 inches. Roads flooded all over town. I remember someone saying somewhere around 10" and they were in Santa Rosa beach. The Destin Log facebook page has a bunch of pictures. Some cars didn't fare so well...
This trough looks like it's weakening I don't really think it's going to have that big of an effect on Jaquan Florida needs to watch this one