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Category 4 Dujuan Takes Aim on Taiwan

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:41 PM GMT on September 27, 2015

Taiwan is bracing for the arrival of Typhoon Dujuan, which will tear across the northern part of the island on Monday night local time. Dujuan intensified rapidly over the weekend, growing from Category 1 to Category 4 strength in just 36 hours. As of 1200 GMT (8 am EDT) Sunday, Dujuan was packing winds of 145 mph, just short of supertyphoon levels. Dujuan has an annular structure, with a huge eye--more than 50 miles in diameter--and cyclonic banding limited to its south side. Sea-surface temperatures will continue above average and wind shear will remain very light (below 10 knots) along the remainder of Dujuan’s approach to Taiwan. Annular hurricanes are often relatively slow to weaken, which lends further support to the idea of Dujuan maintaining most or all of its current strength before it reaches Taiwan. The path projected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Sunday morning has Dujuan onshore as a Category 3 typhoon at 1200 GMT (8 pm Taiwan time) on Monday night, with Taipei on the dangerous right-hand side of the typhoon.


Figure 1. Infrared image from NASA’s VIIRS instrument of Typhoon Dujuan, taken at 0510Z (1:10 am EDT) on Sunday, September 27, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NASA RAMMB/CIRA, courtesy Dan Lindsey.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Dujuan approaching Taiwan as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Sunday, September 27, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Taiwan is vulnerable to large damages from typhoons
Taiwan and its capital city of Taipei are very vulnerable to large damages from typhoons. A September 2015 "City Risk Index" developed by Lloyds of London rated Taipei the most financially exposed city in the world to disasters, due to the wealth of the city and its exposure to disasters such as typhoons, earthquakes, floods, and volcanoes. The top risk factor: typhoons, which can potentially put $81 billion in assets at risk in the city. Taiwan has already been hit by one major typhoon this year--Typhoon Soudelor, which hit Taiwan as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on August 8, killing 8 people and doing over $30 million in damage. More than 4 million power customers lost power in Taiwan; according to taipower.com, this is Taiwan's largest power outage ever caused by a typhoon. Torrential rain also impacted northern Taiwan; Datong Township, Yilan County, reported 52.52 inches of rain from Soudelor. Taiwan's most damaging typhoon was Super Typhoon Herb of July 1996. Herb hit the island as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, passed directly over the capital of Taipei, and did $1.1 billion in damage.


Figure 3. A basketball court is flooded by the Jingmei River as Typhoon Soudelor hits Taipei, Taiwan on Aug. 8, 2015. (Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images)

Rains from Tropical Storm Niala to douse Hawaii
East- and south-facing slopes of Hawaii’s Big Island may get widespread rainfall of 2” – 8” and localized totals of 12” or more today through Monday as Tropical Storm Niala moves south of the state. As of 11 am EDT Monday, the exposed low-level center of Niala was located about 245 miles south-southeast of Hilo, moving west-southwest as 7 mph. The Tropical Storm Watch formerly in effect for Hawaii has been discontinued. Tropical storm force winds only extent up to 80 miles from the center, so high winds will not be a threat, but the lighter winds and rich moisture assocaited with Niala’s broader circulation will enhance the normal trade-wind flow that makes the east slopes of Hawaii’s volcanic peaks among the wettest places on the planet. The Big Island remains in a flash flood watch through Monday, with already-saturated ground increasing the risk of flash flooding. Niala’s top winds are just 50 mph, and southwesterly wind shear of more than 30 knots should weaken the storm to depression strength by late Monday or Tuesday as it angles to the southwest of Hawaii.


Figure 4. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Niala approaching Hawaii as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Saturday, September 26, 2015, at approximately 4 pm EDT. At the time, Niala had top winds of 65 mph, but its low-level center had become exposed to view due to high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Widespread rains in store for Gulf Coast
A broad area of surface low pressure sprawled across the western Gulf of Mexico, dubbed Invest 99L, will bring several days of scattered heavy rain from southeast Texas to much of Florida. The entire system is being steered by a nearly stationary upper low now centered along the Texas coast. The small low-level center of circulation of 99L is just north of the Yucatan peninsula, with another area of surface low pressure and concentrated showers and thunderstorms close to the Louisiana coast associated with the upper low. Southwesterly wind shear from the upper low should inhibit the multiple surface centers from consolidating into a tropical storm. However, a subtropical-type system may emerge, with numerous bands and clusters of convection sweeping into the Southeast from the Gulf Coast through Tuesday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is on standby for a possible mission into 99L later Sunday, and NHC gives the system a 30% chance of tropical or subtropical development. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is projecting widespread 2” – 3” totals along the immediate coast from Houston to Tampa, with lighter amounts further inland (see Figure 5). We can expect similar drenching set-ups to occur periodically through the fall and into the winter, as the powerful El Niño now in place will support a strong subtropical jet stream into the Gulf of Mexico and nearby states. The risk of tornadoes and other severe weather will increase during the winter months over Florida, where El Niño significantly boosts the odds of wintertime tornadoes.


Figure 5. Forecast rainfall amounts from 1200 GMT (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, September 27, through Wednesday, September 30. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Tropical Storm Marty pondering a Mexican landfall
The future of Tropical Storm Marty is shrouded in an unusually high amount of uncertainty. Marty’s sustained winds had risen to 60 mph at 11 am EDT Sunday, with the center about 235 miles southwest of Acapulco. Very warm sea-surface temperatures of 30-31°C (86-88°F) are helping keep Marty’s convection robust despite moderate southwesterly wind shear (about 20 knots) as the storm inches northward at just 7 mph. The operational GFS model and most of the GFS ensemble members continue to bring Marty north and northeastward into the Mexican coast not far from Acapulco, while several ensemble members shunt Marty to the northwest, avoiding landfall. The ECMWF and UKMET models also take a weaker Marty northwestward and keep it offshore. None of the major models intensify Marty beyond minimal hurricane strength. Given the track uncertainty, NHC may issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Mexican coast later on Sunday. NASA’s WB-57 aircraft is scheduled to release more than 50 dropsondes in and near Marty on Sunday as part of a research mission.


Figure 6. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Marty.

Ida clinging to life
Pesky Tropical Depression Ida continues to hang on as an identifiable cyclone in the central Atlantic--but just barely, with little organized convection. Ida is now on the south side of a upper-level ridge that should keep It rolling westward. Dynamical models all keep TD Ida below tropical storm strength throughout the next five days, and interactions with a front to its north may cause Ida to degenerate into a trough or remnant low at any time during the week.


Figure 7. Latest satellite image of Invest 98L.

Invest 98L could become a depression
West of Ida and east of the Bahamas, a gradually organizing area of showers and thunderstorms could become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The system is passing over record warm ocean temperatures near 30°C (86°F), with wind shear in the moderate range (10 - 20 knots). NHC gives the system a 50% chance of development in the next three days. Wind shear is predicted to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, beginning on Sunday night, which will likely put a cap on 98L’s development.


Figure 8. The total lunar eclipse of October 8, 2014, as photographed in California by Alfredo Garcia, Jr. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Tomruen.


It’s super-lunar-eclipse time tonight!
What could be the most spectacular lunar eclipse in decades will unfold tonight, as a “supermoon” coincides with a total lunar eclipse. The last time this happened was in 1982, and it won’t happen again until 2033. Sunday’s lunar eclipse is timed especially well for the Americas, with totality falling between around 7:00 to 8:30 pm PDT and 10:00 to 11:30 pm EDT. Evening skies should be fair or clear over much of the nation outside of the Southeast and the Atlantic coast. For more details, see the conclusion of our post from last Friday. If you can't see the eclipse directly, check out NASA's live feed from the Griffith Observatory in Los Angeles. Happy viewing!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Developing an eye???



Dujuan's center - quite ruffled - now inland Taiwan. Torrential amounts of rain in the northern mountains (poor people!):


Source for updates.


99L


TD 11.
This needs to keep moving NW, TYVM....
Looks rather more organized this morning ....
Last one for now:



Despite the "thunder to the left of us" and "thunder to the right of us", it seems likely that the Bahamas will have a mostly clear day. I'm off to enjoy what I can of it. Here's hoping it doesn't get too hot!

G'day!
Lol for calling out Jedkins.
509. MahFL
Some convection over the center :

511. beell
Quoting 496. NoobDave:

This is%uFFFD scary, Dujuan is aiming right for the Taipei, the real track appears to be more to the north than what JTWC predicted. Can t imagine they can go through this without sustaining some serious damage.




Dating back to Erika's track deflection as it crossed Hispaniola, I have developed a new-found interest (but far from a complete understanding!) of the interaction of mountainous island terrain and cyclone track.
(see Lee Grenci's blog of August 30th).

There are numerous studies available that focus on track and precip patterns dating back at least 20 years. Most all of them share similar findings that typhoons approaching Taiwan's Central Mountain Region (CMR) from the east are deflected to the northwest followed by a turn back to the southwest after crossing.

Most studies cite a disruption in the environmental flow around the north end of the island or focus on asymmetric latent heat (dry, downsloping winds off the eastern slopes of the CMR in the SW quadrant in tandem with stronger convection in the NW quadrant causing the center to move towards this area...or both. Keeping with the simplistic explanations, this process is reversed on the western slopes of the CMR.

It appears Dujuan is taking a jog back to the SW this morning.

(some light pre-breakfast links from google scholar)
unusual warning for our shorelines & waterways. high tides with long period swells could cause some flooding after a check water is high but not as high a nov. 1994. then it was over the sea walls. e cen florida
Big boomers moving thru Pensacola this morning!
Tropical Depression ELEVEN
5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 28 2015
Location: 27.3°N 68.9°W
Moving: W at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
515. beell
99L'S elongated (north to south) swirl shifting to the east a bit this morning. Being absorbed by the southerlies or relocating? Non progressive nature of the western low probably playing a role in the moisture channel off the western coast of Florida and over Alabama.







MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0525
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
532 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280931Z - 281301Z

SUMMARY...A PAIR OF MOISTURE CHANNELS CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGH PWAT AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL DEFINED NORTH-SOUTH CONVECTIVE PLUME CONTAININED MULTIPLE EMBEDDED FLARE-UPS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE BETTER BUOYANCY CAN WORK ITS WAY INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A DECENT FOCUS AT THE SURFACE WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG THE COASTLINE. DUAL-POL HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCH RATES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IF ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN WORK THEIR WAY INLAND...THEY COULD CAUSE ISOLATED ISSUES...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE BIGGEST WILDCARD WILL BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THE 09Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MUCAPES IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN 2 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MX. THERE ARE SOME RATHER WET SOLUTIONS AMONG THE RECENT GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL. THE SIGNAL IS FUZZY AMONG MANY OF THE CAMS BUT DO MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

RUBIN-OSTER



watch out northeast!!



WOW!!!!
Atlantic Basin - Tropics are active this morning!

T.D. 11 is swirling NE of the Bahamas. It might become a named tropical storm.

99L is located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

If we get a tropical storm form in the Atlantic basin from either system, it will be the 10th named storm ... Joaquin!

If you get flooded today please don't say you didn't have enough early warning! (especially if you live somewhere in Alabama) ;-]


Quoting 515. beell:

99L'S elongated (north to south) swirl shifting to the east a bit this morning. Being absorbed by the southerlies or relocating? Non progressive nature of the western low probably playing a role in the moisture channel off the western coast of Florida and over Alabama.







MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0525
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
532 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280931Z - 281301Z

SUMMARY...A PAIR OF MOISTURE CHANNELS CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGH PWAT AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WHILE MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A WELL DEFINED NORTH-SOUTH CONVECTIVE PLUME CONTAININED MULTIPLE EMBEDDED FLARE-UPS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE BETTER BUOYANCY CAN WORK ITS WAY INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A DECENT FOCUS AT THE SURFACE WITH A WELL DEFINED EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ORIENTED ALONG THE COASTLINE. DUAL-POL HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCH RATES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IF ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN WORK THEIR WAY INLAND...THEY COULD CAUSE ISOLATED ISSUES...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

THE BIGGEST WILDCARD WILL BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THE 09Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MUCAPES IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN 2 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MX. THERE ARE SOME RATHER WET SOLUTIONS AMONG THE RECENT GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z GEM REGIONAL. THE SIGNAL IS FUZZY AMONG MANY OF THE CAMS BUT DO MAINTAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

RUBIN-OSTER


OOOpppss Repost...Sorry
I am now under a urban and small stream advisory. It's been raining moderately/heavily since 3am, it's finally calming down now but with that heavy thunderstorm coming from Penscola I may end up with some flooding.
Lol, I live in south central Alabama and I am about to get flooded.
Quoting 520. tropicofcancer:

If you get flooded today please don't say you didn't have enough early warning! (especially if you live somewhere in Alabama) ;-]



Looks like we're finally going to get some rain here in the Northeast- it's needed!

527. MahFL
99L has found the spot in the eastern Gulf with the lowest amount of shear, about 25 kts, so some slow development might be possible.
Quoting 525. tampabaymatt:




The fllod watch for our area is purely precautionary. Most experts thinking is the heaviest rain will stay off shore. The panhandle and Alabama are in for some really good rains. Models haven't shifted eastward as some have said on here.
Quoting 527. MahFL:

99L has found the spot in the eastern Gulf with the lowest amount of shear, about 25 kts, so some slow development might be possible.


However the NHC is saying less oranized and lowered the probability to 30%.
Quoting 528. Bucsboltsfan:



The fllod watch for our area is purely precautionary. Most experts thinking is the heaviest rain will stay off shore. The panhandle and Alabama are in for some really good rains. Models haven't shifted eastward as some have said on here.


I agree. I think the NWS saw what happened in Mobile yesterday and figured it would be better to issue the flood watch for CYA reasons. Not that there isn't a high chance of heavy rains for the Tampa Bay area, but like you said, most of the models seem to keep the heaviest rains offshore.

Quoting 523. TCweatherman:

Lol, I live in south central Alabama and I am about to get flooded.
I live in s. Alabama  also it has been pouring here for several hours nonstop, the area I am in is notorious for pretty bad floods due to murder creek rising, this much rain in a short time with little run off can cause some bad flooded roads at least for a few hours. Stay safe if you have to get out!
tw mdr i think it has a good chance of being our next invest and tropical entity.
Um.... Ok then...

534. MahFL
Shear tendency is down over 99L :

T-Wave, Ida's remnants, and TD 11

Center exposed on Td 11

Quoting 526. MAweatherboy1:

Looks like we're finally going to get some rain here in the Northeast- it's needed!




Yeah FL to Maine is in for a wet pattern the next couple of weeks. A big bowl trough over most of the Central US next week.

It doesn't look like a traditional Dry Season for FL as it appears this El-Nino pattern is underway.



Quoting 535. JrWeathermanFL:

T-Wave, Ida's remnants, and TD 11


Ida's Remnants have started organizing and blowing up some convection, still could be something to watch...
Quoting 529. Bucsboltsfan:



However the NHC is saying less oranized and lowered the probability to 30%.


LLC appears to be shifting east toward the convection this morning. Downcast all you want as there is a lot of rain heading for Western FL this morning.

Quoting 533. MAweatherboy1:

Um.... Ok then...


wow a big hurricane!!
Is this enough for TS
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2015 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 27:28:03 N Lon : 69:02:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1003.6mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -16.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.7 degrees

****************************
542. MahFL
A tiny LLC ?

Quoting 539. StormTrackerScott:



LLC appears to be shifting east toward the convection this morning. Downcast all you want as there is a lot of rain heading for Western FL this morning.




You mean the NHC downcasted. I don't have any influence with their forecasting. I just repeated what they said.
Quoting 542. MahFL:

A tiny LLC ?




No. Annular.
Quoting 539. StormTrackerScott:



LLC appears to be shifting east toward the convection this morning. Downcast all you want as there is a lot of rain heading for Western FL this morning.


Recon is also still scheduled to go in later this afternoon and investigate the area. Given the llc working towards the convection I think they will be a go.
cold Siberian air plunges across the nw north America
snow for Alaska beginning tuseday
by end of the week chilly air will evade the eastern half of north America
from mid atlantic to eastern Canada daytime highs will struggle to reach mid 50's with overnight lows in the low 30's
to welcome in the beginning of October
Big Shift East on 12z models for 99L GTStorm you might be right on Cedar Key.
Quoting 547. sporteguy03:

Big Shift East on 12z models for 99L GTStorm you might be right on Cedar Key.


Well that's where I am rn :P
Quoting 541. HurricaneAndre:

Is this enough for TS
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2015 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 27:28:03 N Lon : 69:02:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1003.6mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -16.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.7 degrees

****************************


Yes
Quoting 543. Bucsboltsfan:



You mean the NHC downcasted. I don't have any influence with their forecasting. I just repeated what they said.


I'm not saying its going to develop bro. I'm just say the low is shifting east toward the convection. Its this uncertainty that the NWS In Ruskin issued these flood watches for you guys. Any slight deviation could be a game changer rain wise for Western FL as there is already a lot of rain popping offshore of western FL.
So what says all this rain in the Eastern Gulf makes it to the West Coast of Florida? We have had a few occasions where the forecasts were busted
Quoting 481. barbamz:


Latest from Dujuan.




Did some pretty good weakening before hitting, still will cause some pretty hefty damage..
Quoting 552. StormTrackerScott:



I'm not saying its going to develop bro. I'm just say the low is shifting east toward the convection. Its this uncertainty that the NWS In Ruskin issued these flood watches for you guys. Any slight deviation could be a game changer rain wise for Western FL as there is already a lot of rain popping offshore of western FL.


I agree with you there. It will be a close call for the west coast. We could get crushed or heavy rain might sit just off shore.
The latest from Dujuan

Super Typhoon Dujuan batters Taiwan
The storm hit earlier than expected after picking up speed as it approached, with more than 7,000 people evacuated in advance
Agence France-Presse, Published 8:57 PM, September 28, 2015

Latest list of top accumulated amounts of rain (more see here)
. Mind: 722 mm = 28,4 inches! And it's still pouring.

722.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 01U56 Datong Township, Yilan County
616.0 Fushan C0A56 Wulai District, New Taipei City
596.0 Fushan (10th River Management Office) 01A43 Wulai District, New Taipei City
533.0 Tonghou C0A57 Wulai District, New Taipei City
557. MahFL
Some spots of low shear ( blue ) now appearing in the eastern Gulf :

Quoting 541. HurricaneAndre:

Is this enough for TS
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2015 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 27:28:03 N Lon : 69:02:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1003.6mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -16.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.7 degrees

****************************



the NHC will not be upgrading it

AL, 11, 2015092812, , BEST, 0, 276N, 691W, 30, 1006, TD
Quoting 556. barbamz:

The latest from Dujuan

Super Typhoon Dujuan batters Taiwan
The storm hit earlier than expected after picking up speed as it approached, with more than 7,000 people evacuated in advance
Agence France-Presse, Published 8:57 PM, September 28, 2015

Latest list of top accumulated amounts of rain (more see here)
. Mind: 722 mm = 28,4 inches! And it's still pouring.

722.0 TAI PING SHAN-1 01U56 Datong Township, Yilan County
616.0 Fushan C0A56 Wulai District, New Taipei City
596.0 Fushan (10th River Management Office) 01A43 Wulai District, New Taipei City
533.0 Tonghou C0A57 Wulai District, New Taipei City
WUGI so far coming in with the highest wind speed gust?  44 m/s  = 98 mph with a pressure of 976 mb.  LINK
TAIPEI gusts came in with 36 m/s = 80 mph. with a pressure 984 mb. LINK
The center of 99L is coming into radar view moving N.E. See same radar loop comment # 559 - few second late.
A little larger view.
It looks like if 99L were to organize and stay a TD, steering currents would have it making landfall from the Miss. Gulf Coast to the Fl. panhandle. And that is a big if on development.
Quoting 538. Camerooski:

Ida's Remnants have started organizing and blowing up some convection, still could be something to watch...


You summed up 2015 hurricane season in a nutshell.
Quoting 543. Bucsboltsfan:



You mean the NHC downcasted. I don't have any influence with their forecasting. I just repeated what they said.
There are a lot of wet fish in the eastern gulf. We may have a lawn chair shaken and a few drops of rain here.
Ugh what is usually one of the best times of year for weather here in NC has turned into a week and a half of nasty cloudy rainy weather. Getting married outdoors this Saturday and things continue to trend towards rainy and cold weather definitely starting to stress me out. Thanks El Nino!
Surface Low SE of Galveston is better organized than 99L,
Good Morning.

On the Global tropics scale, hard to believe but we have another high-end Typhoon headed into Taiwan.

Closer to home, Florida is getting drenched by the low-probability Invest in the Gulf. So typical of lows in this part of the Gulf where shear displaces the worst of the convection to the East, over Florida, regardless of a trajectory further to the West away from the Peninsula. At least the massive rain shield should keep instability on the low end later in the afternoon but the rain over the next 48 looks to be heavy and dangerous for driving especially on the highways and Interstates.

Be careful out there over the next several days while driving.

Here is the current shear; it's a rain event as opposed to a developed tropical system:




Quoting 565. SouthTampa:

There are a lot of wet fish in the eastern gulf. We may have a lawn chair shaken and a few drops of rain here.


And flooded streets, yard, parking lots. Downed trees too if some of these stronger cells come through.

Ummm ...


28.09.2015: For licensing please email James (at) EarthUncut (dot) TV. Footage shot in Suao, Taiwan on 28th September 2015 as typhoon Dujuan made landfall.
572. MahFL
Quoting 570. barbamz:


Ummm ...


In Taiwan people often go to work in typhoons, they have a different mentality compared to Western society.
Bay News 9 future radar doesn't show us getting any real rain until 2:00AM or so in the overnight. For what that's worth. Which is close to zero.
Yesterday evening, a Nippion Oil Platform just east of the LLC center SE of Galveston was reporting sustained east wind of 41mph and buoy 20 miles east of GTown was gusting to 33mph
And that spin on the loops between La and Texas is a huge upper level low/Tutt cell that is helping fuel the baroclinic convection further to the East in the Gulf as well as the source of all the SW shear over that Eastern part of the Gulf:






Quoting 567. RitaEvac:

Surface Low SE of Galveston is better organized than 99L,


Lol how funny would it be if it spun up real quick and moved inland..
Quoting 576. DavidHOUTX:



Lol how funny would it be if it spun up real quick and moved inland..


Stationary right now, but supposed to move on NE later tomm
99L is trying to get itself under the convection off the West Coast of FL. This might get interesting.

Quoting 576. DavidHOUTX:



Lol how funny would it be if it spun up real quick and moved inland..


SE TX and Galveston region is notorious for these kind of events
Quoting 570. barbamz:


Ummm ...


28.09.2015: For licensing please email James (at) EarthUncut (dot) TV. Footage shot in Suao, Taiwan on 28th September 2015 as typhoon Dujuan made landfall.


Yeah.. what are they thinking.. the guy that slid on purpose made me laugh for some reason though.. lol

This isn't a typhoon that should be taken lightly though..
581. beell
Quoting 574. RitaEvac:

Yesterday evening, a Nippion Oil Platform just east of the LLC center SE of Galveston was reporting sustained east wind of 41mph and buoy 20 miles east of GTown was gusting to 33mph


Just curious, was there an anemometer height given?
Quoting 577. RitaEvac:



Stationary right now, but supposed to move on NE later tomm


Looks like it is trying to build a little convection S of the island.. It will be interesting to see what it does today, if anything



Recon is suppose to be in Marty and TD11. Where are they,
99L is nuttin but a north/south wall line of convection
Quoting 584. RitaEvac:

99L is nuttin but a north/south wall line of convection


haha lol true
Quoting 581. beell:



Just curious, was there an anemometer height given?


No, but I'm sure it was elevated
Quoting 536. JrWeathermanFL:

Center exposed on Td 11



Just about sums up this whole 2015 season same thing different storm :(
588. MahFL
The closed low is back on the 1200Z chart, earlier it was open or elongated :



We can see what LOW is actually driving the show,,as it always has.


I am of the personal opinion that 99L is not going to develop. That non-tropical low in the Western Gulf, as noted by NHC, is the dominant large-scale synoptic feature in the Gulf of Mexico which creating a very hostile shear environment; that is pretty evident on the WV loops:

Visible loops show the low level NW flow coming off TX into the circulation off Galveston. Yesterday evening was not the cast just a northerly flow. So the circulation is better organized today than yesterday.
DOom averted..

Quoting 591. RitaEvac:

Visible loops show the low level NW flow coming off TX into the circulation off Galveston. Yesterday evening was not the cast just a northerly flow. So the circulation is better organized today than yesterday.


Definitely... 99L just lol



Quoting 584. RitaEvac:

99L is nuttin but a north/south wall line of convection


Exactly...
td9.=td11 so many candidates atm
99L is now under the convection. It will be interesting watching this system today because as 99L tucked itself under the convection it shifted east and is now heading for the FL Big Bend it appears. Should stay weak but heavy rains are encroaching on the West Coast of FL.
Quoting 583. HurricaneAndre:

Recon is suppose to be in Marty and TD11. Where are they,


what is with you dont you ever read the plan of the day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271945
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1545 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-124

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 28/1800Z A. 29/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 28/1630Z C. 29/0400Z
D. 26.5N 85.5W D. 28.5N 84.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHEAST OF BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 78 FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 79
A. 28/1800Z A. 29/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 28/1400Z C. 29/0800Z
D. 28.0N 70.0W D. 29.5N 71.5W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2030Z E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,0000FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
ON SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF BAHAMAS IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

4. REMARKS: TASKING REQUIREMENTS FOR 27/2100Z AND
28/1130Z, 1730Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 27/1430Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARTY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0117E MARTY
C. 28/1400Z
D. 16.2N 102.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE FIX ON MARTY NEAR
16.8N 101.7W AT 29/1800Z.

3. REMARKS: THE NASA WB-57 IS PLANNING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM MARTY DEPARTING HARLINGEN
AT 28/1400Z. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
ANTICIPATED DROPSONDES: 65. POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MISSION


please read the blob part where i high lighted the times and stuff
Quoting 593. DavidHOUTX:



Definitely... 99L just lol






ULL is responsible for a lot of that overall circulation.
Quoting 594. Bucsboltsfan:



Exactly...


Elongated surface trough in the East Gulf and its shifting east toward you guys. I would also watch for some rotation as some of these cells come ashore in a few hours.
602. MahFL
Quoting 583. HurricaneAndre:

Recon is suppose to be in Marty and TD11. Where are they,


Marty is scheduled for 1400Z and TD11 also 1400Z resources permitting. Often missions are cancelled if the system is obviously not developing.
Tropical paradise




Finally, there is rotation and vorticity at all levels of the low off the Coast of Texas but it is non-tropical in nature; the strongest signature is at the upper levels (the ULL) and there is some broad vort working all the way down to the surface but this does not make it a tropical system:

Upper Level:

Mid-Level:

Surface:
Lots of rain in Taiwan, with more to come over the next 12 hours or so.



Some places with 600mm+ accumulations of rain in the last 22 hours.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
521 am EDT Monday Sep 28 2015

..a close call for heavy rainfall along the Florida West Coast
later today through Tuesday morning...

..Flood Watch in effect for coastal counties from Sarasota
northward to Levy...

Synopsis...
08z water vapor and h4 rap analysis shows a very stagnant upper
level synoptic pattern in place across the Continental U.S. Early this morning.
The main features of note have not moved much since early Sunday
morning. The main northern stream flow remains confined over
southern Canada...as it rides up and over an upper ridge in place
across the Desert Southwest. The upper level pattern further to
the east and south over our region is quite complex. A deep trough
anchored by a large closed upper low feature over the Texas coast
remains stalled to our west...while these height falls have
promoted a strengthening upper ridge off the Florida East Coast.
The height gradient between these features is allowing a
deep...and moist...south to southwest flow from the central Gulf
of Mexico to the western Florida Peninsula. WV imagery shows a
deep moisture plume out of the northwest Caribbean moving over our
heads...and the 28/12z ktbw sounding profile again sampled a
column with an over 2" precipitable water value. The measured value of 2.12" is
more than the 90th percentile of values for the end of September.
Periodic weak impulses embedded within the southerly flow aloft
have been providing the focus for clusters of showers/storms working
along/just off the Suncoast early this morning. Although the
forcing with these features is weak...the deep moisture in the
column and general weak diffluence aloft is combining to produce
efficient convection ahead of each impulse.

At the surface...a weak area of low pressure has emerged off the
Yucatan Peninsula and is slowly moving northward through the central
Gulf of Mexico. Our low level flow is generally a light inflow from
the east/east-southeast right now...but will be veering toward the south today
as the low continues to track northward toward the north-central
Gulf Coast. The track of this low continues to be quite problematic
for our forecast. For several days the nwp guidance has suggested
this system would place the Florida West Coast on the very edge of the
best synoptic forcing/heavy rain potential. We were hoping that as
the event Drew near...a trend east or west would occur...making the
forecast more definitive toward wet or dry. However...this deviation
toward the left or right has not occurred in the simulations...and
the guidance consensus holds onto the "middle of the road" track and
organization structure. Unfortunately...this results in the forecast
today again being of lower confidence than usual...due to the
implications that only small deviations in track or organization of
the low may have for our local weather (heavier rain potential along
the coast vs. Staying just offshore).

&&

Short term (today through tuesday)...
as mentioned in the synopsis above...the main forecast dilemma
for the short term is the potential for periods of heavy rainfall
along the coast associated with a weak area of low pressure moving
northward through the central/eastern Gulf. Already seeing lots of
storms across the eastern Gulf of Mexico associated with this
system...and these will be approaching the coast later this
morning. Almost all the guidance suggests a very close call as to
whether or not the heavier and more prolonged rainfall reaches the
coast or stays just offshore. The issue at hand is that if the
storm tracks a bit further east and the bands become established
along the coast...the available moisture in the column is very
high...and the squalls/bands are likely to be very efficient at
producing heavy rainfall. There is uncertainty in this forecast
due to the likely tight spatial gradient in rainfall...but the
potential for some locations to see hefty rainfall amounts...
combined with already elevated river levels...warrants the
issuance of a Flood Watch. This Flood Watch is for only the
coastal counties from Sarasota northward to Levy. Perhaps we will
Luck out and the flooding type rains tease US just offshore...and
never really make it to our land zones. Will be monitoring radar
and nwp guidance trends. Even if "heavy" rainfall totals do not
materialize...the rain chances are going to be high for the region
due to both the Gulf low...and the high column moisture forcing
diurnally produced storms. Therefore...most locations are
forecast with likely probability of precipitation. Depending on the evolution of the
bands...may very well have to further increase these rain chances
to categorical across the Flood Watch area with future forecast
updates. At least for now...most of the morning should be on the
dry side...outside of a few isolated sprinkles. The real threat
for heavy rainfall (if it materializes) will be later this
afternoon into tonight.

Do not expect much in the way of sun today...deep tropical
moisture will be streaming overhead all day...keeping our skies
mostly cloudy. These clouds will also keep temperatures down in
the 80s for most spots today.

The majority of the guidance gives the best push of rain/storm
potential associated with the low into the coastal areas tonight.
The high probability of precipitation of likely to categorical will continue along the
coast. Late tonight...conditions in the lower levels over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico and along the coast from Tampa northward
will feature decent values between 20-25kts of 0-1km and 0-3km
shear. Will have to monitor storms approaching the coast very
closely...as this shear will help induce some rotation/enhanced
updrafts. It does appear that conditions will support a small
threat for a few waterspouts or weak tornadoes with stronger
storm moving ashore. Will be watching this potential with later
guidance packages. However...widespread severe weather is not
expected...and hopefully any rotating storm will be isolated in
nature...and remain offshore.

Tuesday the low is expected to move ashore near the Florida
Panhandle...weaken and eventually shear out to our north. As the
low GOES by our latitudes...the flow will veer to the southwest
through a deep layer of the atmosphere. This southwest flow and
still very high column moisture will continue to help promote
showers and storms to move ashore along western Florida. The bands
do not look to be as widespread on Tuesday as they may be later
today and tonight...however...smaller scale convergence zones
would suggest the threat for localized training of storms over
certain locations. Therefore...the Flood Watch will be allowed to
continue into early Tuesday afternoon. Later in the day
Tuesday...there are some indications that things may try to dry
out across the Nature Coast...and have trended probability of precipitation down to the
north of the I-4 corridor after 18z. Better chances for continued
showers off the Gulf will be from Tampa southward along the
Suncoast.

It is highly likely that most areas will see a wetting rain during
the next 24 to 30 hours. However...inland area will experience
more of a Summer-like pattern of passing shower and storms. It is
the immediate coast where the threat for prolonged rain looks
highest. Have a great Monday everyone!

&&

Long term (wednesday through next sunday)...
u/l trough will persist over the eastern U.S. Wednesday...with short wave
energy digging through the Ohio River valley Thursday reinforcing
the trough over the region. Next upstream short wave will dig further west
over the central rockies which will kick out the trough over the
southeast...with zonal u/l flow developing across the southern tier
of the U.S. Saturday and Sunday.

At the surface...area of low pressure will be off the southeast U.S.
Coast Wednesday with boundary extending across South Florida with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central and
southern forecast area...with greatest areal coverage over southwest
Florida. Deep tropical moisture will remain over the region with
pcpw values above 2 inches across the central and southern peninsula
which will continue the threat for locally heavy rain. Similar set-
up on Thursday however the deep layer moisture will slowly be
suppressed to the south through the day. The area of low pressure
off the southeast coast will lift slowly out Friday night and
Saturday with drier air surface and aloft advecting down the
backside over west central and southwest Florida over the
weekend...with dew points dropping into the 60s and slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

Aviation...
VFR conditions prevail across west-central and southwest Florida
early this morning. Other than some light sprinkles...any
significant rainfall should stay offshore through 15z. Thereafter
increasing chances for shower and storms will enter the forecast
for all taf sites. The best potential for longer duration rainfall
will be at ktpa/kpie/ksrq after 16z. Periodic shower and storms
will move ashore from the Gulf of Mexico into Tuesday morning with
MVFR ceiling/visible restrictions accompanying the bands.

&&

Marine...
a weak area of low pressure will move northward through the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Southeast to
south winds to the east of this low will reach cautionary levels
at times through tonight...especially away from the coast. In
addition numerous shower and thunderstorm squall are expected
over the coastal waters where wind and seas my be more rough. The
low will weaken and move away from the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday...with a lighter west or southwest flow developing
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

Fire weather...
the forecast will feature abundant low level moisture through the
early portion of the week. Relative humidity values will be well
above critical values and most spots will receive wetting
rainfall both Monday and Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall and
longest duration rainfall is likely to be along the immediate
coast the next couple of days.

Fog potential...
no significant fog or reduced visibility is expected the next
several days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 86 76 86 77 / 60 60 70 30
fmy 89 77 87 75 / 50 50 60 40
gif 88 75 87 75 / 60 50 60 30
srq 85 78 85 77 / 60 70 70 30
bkv 86 74 86 74 / 70 60 70 30
spg 86 77 85 78 / 60 70 70 40

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for coastal Citrus-coastal Hernando-coastal
Hillsborough-coastal Levy-coastal Manatee-coastal
Pasco-coastal Sarasota-inland Citrus-inland Hernando-
inland Hillsborough-inland Levy-inland Manatee-inland
Pasco-inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...none.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

DISCUSSION...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (A QUICK
1 TO 2 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA. MODELS OPEN UP THE LOW AND BEGIN
TO SLOWLY LIFT IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR AREA. A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
TO BE DRY AS THE AREA RESIDES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO
THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROF TO THE EAST. 42
Well dat No Tropical LOW did some stuff yesterday and last night.

It never matters what it "is", it matters what it does.




College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 913 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 713 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 639 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 533 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 514 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 508 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 437 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 401 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 109 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1145 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Severe Weather Page The Nexlab Text Page

Just updated and intensity up on some models too.

Quoting 608. Patrap:

Well dat No Tropical LOW did some stuff yesterday and last night.

It never matters what it "is", it matters what it does.




College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 913 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 713 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 639 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 555 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 533 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 514 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 508 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 437 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 401 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 109 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1145 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Severe Weather Page The Nexlab Text Page




And allllllll that rain off the TX/LA coast....
Quoting 572. MahFL:



In Taiwan people often go to work in typhoons, they have a different mentality compared to Western society.


When I have more time I might look into that more. That is quite a mentality, I could see going to work in a sub 60mph tropical storm, but that's my limit.
Quoting 609. StormTrackerScott:

Just updated and intensity up on some models too.




I'm not sure if anything will make it into my area of S.W. Florida. It looks like the Panhandle down the coast to the Tampa area could see some heavy rain later today.
Definitely some very heavy rain for the Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida.
613. Mikla
Quoting 611. ElConando:



When I have more time I might look into that more. That is quite a mentality, I could see going to work in a sub 60mph tropical storm, but that's my limit.

I used to work over there 1-3 weeks a month and still have many friends I stay in contact with. Much different work environment. My team would stay late most nights, take naps at lunch and be available at any time day or night for calls with the US. Most are complaining that they only got 1/2 day of work today before some of the buildings shut down.
I needed a boat to get to work in downtown Pensacola this morning! Nothing dangerous, but widespread minor flooding from 6+ inches of rain this morning.
Storm rain totals: Link

Flash flood warning continuing...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
838 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

FLC033-113-281815-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150928T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ESCAMBIA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-
838 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 835 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO BE INDICATED OVER
THE WARNED AREA...WITH SEVERAL STREETS AROUND THE CITY OF PENSACOLA
REPORTED TO BE FLOODED. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO ESTIMATE 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL...OR MORE...HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA... GULF BREEZE... GOULDING... BRENT... BELLVIEW... WEST PENSACOLA...
WARRINGTON... FERRY PASS... PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... MYRTLE GROVE...
BAGDAD... JOHNSONS BEACH...
616. MahFL
Quoting 609. StormTrackerScott:

Just updated and intensity up on some models too.




What were the intensities ?
Quoting 616. MahFL:



What were the intensities ?


Weak still some are @ 40 to 45mph. Up from 35mph consensus earlier. I wouldn't worry about that as the rain will be the issue and its moving toward Tampa area now should be there soon.
Quoting 616. MahFL:



What were the intensities ?


Pensacola has had over 7" in some areas this morning. Yikes!
Quoting 616. MahFL:



What were the intensities ?


Seems it dint fit the narrative,



Shear will have only a marginal affect on 99L as long as it continues its NNE-NE motion. 99L is now under the midlevel moisture flow thus can produce T-Storms near the LLC or LLV (hard to see if there is a fully closed LLC due to convection now). I'm assuming there is a small area of WSW winds. I would like to see the HH fly out there this afternoon. Since it's only 18hrs from the coast of the Big Bend... if the HH go out there, there is a 60% chance they will find this a TD or weak TS by 5pm update. If they cancel the mission... this won't be upgraded at 11pm due to lack of time to post TS warnings before landfall. None the less...it don't matter if this is a TD or 40mph TS... it's main affect will be rain from Panama City down to Sarasota tonight into Tuesday. Some possible rotation F0 tornadoes in central florida this evening and tonight.
Surface trough appears to be closing off and this system appears to be building steadily this morning.

Quoting 620. scottsvb:

Shear will have only a marginal affect on 99L as long as it continues its NNE-NE motion. 99L is now under the midlevel moisture flow thus can produce T-Storms near the LLC or LLV (hard to see if there is a fully closed LLC due to convection now). I'm assuming there is a small area of WSW winds. I would like to see the HH fly out there this afternoon. Since it's only 18hrs from the coast of the Big Bend... if the HH go out there, there is a 60% chance they will find this a TD or weak TS by 5pm update. If they cancel the mission... this won't be upgraded at 11pm due to lack of time to post TS warnings before landfall. None the less...it don't matter if this is a TD or 40mph TS... it's main affect will be rain from Panama City down to Sarasota tonight into Tuesday. Some possible rotation F0 tornadoes in central florida this evening and tonight.


Seems to be closing off. You can tell by the looks of the radar across the Panhandle as you don't see the inflow like earlier into that convection over Pensacola.
Quoting 619. Patrap:



Seems it dint fit the narrative,






The beautiful thing about narratives is that you can have your own narration. Not that narration may be any good.
Isolated tornadoes might be possible across FL as these bands come ashore. Getting mighty close to Tampa now.

629. csmda
Quoting 625. ElConando:



The beautiful thing about narratives is that you can have your own narration. Not that narration may be any good.


As long as it sounds good in their own mind...

Glad we finally got some rain!
Get your popcorn folks! Shear is less in the Eastern Gulf so this east shift with the LLC was to its benefit. Might have a TS right off FL by the looks @ Satellite presentation.

It looks like about 7"-8" and more heavy rain training into the area.
TXNT23 KNES 281215
TCSNTL

A. 11L (NONAME)

B. 28/1145Z

C. 27.3N

D. 69.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 BASED ON .35 VISIBLE BANDING. MET IS 1.5 BASED
ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
click image for loop





BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 69.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this
afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression's overall cloud
pattern has become better organized since yesterday despite
persistent north- northwesterly shear of about 20 kt. The exposed
low-level center is located near the northwestern tip of a curved
band over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. However,
satellite data indicate that the low- to mid-level centers have
recently become more separated. Dvorak intensity estimates are a
consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt.

Smoothing fixes over the last 12 hours yields an initial motion of
300/04, a little faster than before. The depression is embedded in
low- to mid-level southeasterly flow around a ridge to its
northeast, with northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic pattern
should only favor a slow northwestward motion for the next couple of
days. After 48 hours, the cyclone should reach the western end of
the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and begin to respond to the
southerly and southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough
nearing the U.S. east coast. This change to the steering should
result in a gradual northward turn with increasing forward speed.
The new track forecast is a little left of the previous one at 48
hours and a little faster, close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF
model solutions.

GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model output indicates a continuation of
moderately strong north-northwesterly shear over the cyclone for the
next day or so. Even though other large-scale factors are generally
conducive for intensification during this time, shear of this
magnitude suggests that only slow intensification is possible. While
the shear should decrease some by 36 hours, other environmental
factors are not forecast to be as conducive and little further
strengthening is indicated. Large-scale models depict the cyclone
merging with a frontal zone offshore of the Mid-Atlantic or New
England coasts by 96 hours, and the system is therefore shown to be
post-tropical at that time. An alternate lower probability scenario
is that the cyclone could race ahead of the frontal boundary and
retain its tropical characteristics for a bit longer. The new
intensity forecast is above the previous one through 24 hours and
near the multi-model consensus but below the statistical-dynamical
guidance after that time due to more reliance on the global models
which show little further intensification.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 69.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.5N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 29.1N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 32.0N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 37.7N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
Quoting 637. Patrap:

click image for loop








Rut roh. That area in the Gulf seems to be the sweet spot right now.
641. MahFL
Quoting 627. StormTrackerScott:

Getting mighty close to Tampa now.


Actually they are going away from Tampa, in a NNW direction.

It looks more like the 93 derecho down here than a developing tropical-subtropical system. Good thing it isn't moving east at 60 mph though like that thing did.
It is official.

Water is found on Mars
The Solar System now has a 2 Rocky Planets with Water, in Liquid form.

TECH SEP 28 2015, 11:00 AM ET
Mars Shows Strong Signs of Flowing Water, Researchers Say
by MATTHEW DELUCA
A few higher precipitation readings from Mesonet

8.23" Grand Bay Mississippi
7.72" at NERRS Meteorological Site
7.22" at Lost Key, Perdido Key
6.63 Pensacola Air Station
Quoting 641. MahFL:



Actually they are going away from Tampa, in a NNW direction.


The rain will likely reach Tampa by rush hour. How much rain that will be, is up for debate in this blog.



wow!!
Quoting 641. MahFL:



Actually they are going away from Tampa, in a NNW direction.


Individual cell yes but the whole line is sliding NE
Quoting 638. hurricanes2018:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 69.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this
afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.



Dont wish hardship on anybody, but glad it aint coming this way. Too much trouble for me.
99L is beginning to look really good this morning. Wonder what the NHC plans are as it appears this system is organizing nicely this morning.



The 15 Z Surf Map should manifest in a few minutes.





HRRR model is going nuts now up to 55knts in 6 hours with 99L. Models now showing prime conditions in the NE Gulf.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 28 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-125

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1730Z, 2330Z
B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE
C. 29/1600Z
D. 29.2N 84.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: BAHAMAS TASKING REQUIREMENTS FOR 29/1130Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/1345Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARTY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0217E MARTY
C. 29/1315Z
D. 16.7N 102.4W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS: THE NASA WB-57 IS PLANNING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM MARTY DEPARTING HARLINGEN
AT 29/1600Z. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
ANTICIPATED DROPSONDES: 65.
Station VENF1 - Venice, FL Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station VENF1
Station VENF1

ARES payload
27.072 N 82.453 W (27°4'21" N 82°27'10" W)

Conditions at VENF1 as of
(10:00 am EDT)
1400 GMT on 09/28/2015:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air
Quoting 652. GeoffreyWPB:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 28 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-125

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1730Z, 2330Z
B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE
C. 29/1600Z
D. 29.2N 84.0W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: BAHAMAS TASKING REQUIREMENTS FOR 29/1130Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/1345Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM MARTY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0217E MARTY
C. 29/1315Z
D. 16.7N 102.4W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
3. REMARKS: THE NASA WB-57 IS PLANNING A 5.5 HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM MARTY DEPARTING HARLINGEN
AT 29/1600Z. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000 TO 65,000 FT.
ANTICIPATED DROPSONDES: 65.

Looks like Recon will be going out to Gulf of Mexico today.
Quoting 646. hurricanes2018:




wow!!


Emergency manager in the tri-state area, should we be talking more about this? Any chance this could merge with the remnants of 99L which some models have arriving in the same area during the same 120hr window?
Absolutely no idea why the HH would waste their time on a frontal system as opposed to investigating an actual cyclone.
Emg Mgrs should follow the NHC Advisories as they are THE protocol lead.
what can we expect here in Apalachicola from 99l?
The RECONs like yesterday, will likely be modified or cancelled.


That is the NHC call, not the HH.
Quoting 651. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR model is going nuts now up to 55knts in 6 hours with 99L. Models now showing prime conditions in the NE Gulf.



With all due respect, this area has historically been a graveyard for developing systems. With offshore flow on two sides, especially a lopsided area like 99, there is usually too much dry air entrained. There are always going to be exceptions, like a well defined, 350 mile wide storm. Don't bet the farm on the models when it comes to the big bend area of the gulf.
Quoting 656. Stormchaser2007:

Absolutely no idea why the HH would waste their time on a frontal system as opposed to investigating an actual cyclone.


they wont have to fly very far
662. MahFL
Quoting 645. ElConando:



The rain will likely reach Tampa by rush hour. How much rain that will be, is up for debate in this blog.


I don't think it will reach Tampa by 4 pm the movement NE is very slow.
We've now got a light west wind at the buoy 200 miles west of Fort Myers in the GOM.
Wind had been out of the ESE or SE the past 24 hours
Quoting 656. Stormchaser2007:

Absolutely no idea why the HH would waste their time on a frontal system as opposed to investigating an actual cyclone.

Only guess I have is that they might see it as a more immediate impact to an area. If they are flying out of MacDill not really far to go.
665. MahFL
Quoting 654. sporteguy03:


Looks like Recon will be going out to Gulf of Mexico today.


As per Google Earth recon is airborne to Marty and TD11.
Maryland is in the cone oh this should be fun (I no more than likely it won't be anything on significance when it gets up here.)
Another naked swirl

Lol to the folks making it seem like we have a developing cat 3 going on 4 off the coast of Florida this morning.
Quoting 658. franklincounty:

what can we expect here in Apalachicola from 99l?

Hard to tell at this point except to say lots of rain over the next two days as the whole mess moves North.  Me and several of my Buds took advantage of the better weather last week to fish down there and I did Carabelle on Wednesday and a few others fished from Bald Point to Dog Island on Saturday.

You best best would just be to keep monitoring the Tallahassee NWS site and advisories; assuming that 99L is never designated, your local NWS Office (across Florida) will the best best for flood advisories and river flood stage info.

Tough to know where the heaviest rain is going to move inland, and after the low pushes ashore, in terms of training bands streaming in from the Gulf. Some folks might get very little rain and other will be flooded out.
 
Quoting 668. washingtonian115:

Lol to the folks making it seem like we have a developing cat 3 going on 4 off the coast of Florida this morning.


We could get a weak TS. Considering this season I'm not shooting for much higher than that.
672. 7544
Quoting 651. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR model is going nuts now up to 55knts in 6 hours with 99L. Models now showing prime conditions in the NE Gulf.



HMM IF THE COC NOW IS UNDER the heavy convection to the east and looks to be pushing nne could it make the turn further south of the panhandle ? tia
Quoting 667. Stormchaser2007:

Another naked swirl




If anything else this season will be noted for 'naked swirls' due to all the shear.
Quoting 649. StormTrackerScott:

99L is beginning to look really good this morning. Wonder what the NHC plans are as it appears this system is organizing nicely this morning.





SPC has a PW analysis peaking at 2.7 in the east gulf, which is insanely high!

Not sure how well 99L is developing though, looks like it might be getting absorbed into the parent circulation of the upper low. The main reason for large convective blowups now is that energy from the upper low is progressing far enough to east to really interact with the low and it's associated the ridiculously high moisture levels in the east gulf.

I've seen RI near the gulf coast but 55kts in 6 hours? Give me a break. It's under 25 knots of shear.
Quoting 665. MahFL:



As per Google Earth recon is airborne to Marty and TD11.


Yeah, PoD must have changed. They're heading for TD11.

99L will remain under hostile conditions until its full absorbed by the front.
The HRRR is not a tropical model.

Anyone who uses it for such is mistaken. Its convective parameters blow up every little surface low. That ULL to the west will keep it from developing.
678. csmda
Quoting 675. ElConando:

I've seen RI near the gulf coast but 55kts in 6 hours? Give me a break. It's under 25 knots of shear.


He is going to read this as "I am seeing RI RIGHT NOW near the west coast of FL!!"

Just another day of storms along the SE as usual. Hopefully it's enough rain for the parts that really need it.
Quoting 488. sar2401:

Amazing. Over here in Eufaula, I've still gotten nothing. Quite a difference in only 200 miles. Now it looks like the storms that are still over the Mobile area are tapping into moisture flowing north from 99L after losing their support they had from the other Gulf low, as it moves inland over Texas. I'll be really interested to find out what mechanism caused this biblical rainfall in Mobile while Pensacola had just 0.82" and Panama City only 0.45".
. It is pretty wild to have no measurable rain for a while then all of a sudden from 2 pm up to my post 8.5 inches and it was still rsining. I believe we had two lows one below Texas and one below Louisiana look like it was pulling on Marty in PacificPacific,perfect little setup for us but waiting on the rest of all this its not over yet still have more to come looks as though you will get some of this today I hope so anyways like us y'all been needing it.
The current location of the loop current in the Gulf is probably also adding a little "pop" to the convection we are seeing but the shear at the upper levels is just too daunting to overcome:
Forecasted Ocean Currents | Gulf of Mexico
Quoting 677. Stormchaser2007:

The HRRR is not a tropical model.

Anyone who uses it for such is mistaken. Its convective parameters blow up every little surface low. That ULL to the west will keep it from developing.


This is the third time in the past 3 weeks that a rapidly developing storm was called out because of that model. So far 0-2. Let's see what happens today.
I am curious to see if NHC will downgrade the potential on 99L at 2pm.
Quoting 682. sporteguy03:

I am curious to see if NHC will downgrade the potential on 99L at 2pm.


At the current rate I am thinking that they may stay in the 20-30% range (if they drop from 30%)..............Personally, I would drop down to 10%.
OFF Topic but...have you seen this Doc?....................................CAPE CANAVERAL --

New findings from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter provide the strongest evidence yet that liquid water flows intermittently on present-day Mars, the agency announced Monday.

Using an imaging spectrometer on MRO, researchers detected signatures of hydrated minerals on slopes where mysterious streaks are seen on the Red Planet.

These darkish streaks appear to ebb and flow over time. They darken and appear to flow down steep slopes during warm seasons, and then fade in cooler seasons. They appear in several locations on Mars when temperatures are above minus 10 degrees (minus 23 Celsius), and disappear at colder times.

These dark, narrow streaks tend to appear and grow during the warmest Martian months, and fade the rest of the year. Salt lowers the freezing point of water, and scientists say that would explain these seasonal briny flows.

"Our quest on Mars has been to 'follow the water,' in our search for life in the universe, and now we have convincing science that validates what we've long suspected," said John Grunsfeld, astronaut and associate administrator of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "This is significant development as it appears to confirm that water — albeit briny — is flowing today on the surface of Mars."

The researchers say further exploration is warranted to determine whether any microscopic life might exist at modern-day Mars. They based their findings on data from NASA's MRO, which has been circling Mars since 2006.

"We found the hydrated salts only when the seasonal features were widest, which suggests that either the dark streaks themselves or a process that forms them is the source of the hydration," said Lujendra Ojha, of the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) in Atlanta, lead author of a report on these findings published Sept. 28 by Nature Geoscience. "In either case, the detection of hydrated salts on these slopes means that water plays a vital role in the formation
99L has very little time left. It should move into Florida tonight or early tomorrow.
Quoting 666. washingtonian115:

Maryland is in the cone oh this should be fun (I no more than likely it won't be anything on significance when it gets up here.)


Winds around the west side of this TC could cause some clearly audible leaf rustling and maybe even blow a few across the ground. And there could be enough rain to cover the roads with a solid unbroken film of water.
More flash flooding in the Pensacola area, and some people were convinced this event was going to be a bust as a rain maker. Sure this whole system was a disorganized mess and hard to predict, but when you have an upper low interacting with surface lows and tropical moisture with PW's well over 2 inches, someone is going to get nailed with torrential rains.


Looks like the convergence zone is gradually shifting east, so we may be next in line here in Tallahassee.



Quoting 683. weathermanwannabe:



At the current rate I am thinking that they may stay in the 20-30% range (if they drop from 30%)..............Personally, I would drop down to 10%.


So you are saying drop the percentage of development down to 10% and STS is calling for a 55kt ts. No that is a difference in a cyclone forecast.
Quoting 687. Jedkins01:

More flash flooding in the Pensacola area, and some people were convinced this event was going to be a bust as a rain maker. Sure this whole system was a disorganized mess and hard to predict, but when you have an upper low interacting with surface lows and tropical moisture with PW's well over 2 inches, someone is going to get nailed with torrential rains.


Looks like the convergence zone is gradually shifting east, so we may be next in line here in Tallahassee.






This'll definitely lower the drought levels in the panhandle for sure.
Quoting 649. StormTrackerScott:

99L is beginning to look really good this morning. Wonder what the NHC plans are as it appears this system is organizing nicely this morning.

your right it's showing signs of life
Hi folks. Just wondering whether we in Nova Scotia should worry at all about TD11? I realize that it will probably be just some rain but it appears it could be a drenching? Surprised the mets up here have not mentioned it yet. Thanks guys.
Water on Mars......WOW
Quoting 688. Bucsboltsfan:



Somyou are saying drop the percentage of development down to 10% and STS is calling for a 55kt ts. No that is a difference in a cyclone forecast.


Lol.............But you have to admit, the Texas ULL is driving the boat and acting like a conveyor belt across the Gulf along with the shear and flow pattern..............If the ULL was retrograding out of the way, I would be more inclined to support potential development of 99L (a higher percentage) but I don't see it happening.

Quoting 682. sporteguy03:

I am curious to see if NHC will downgrade the potential on 99L at 2pm.

It looks great, i personally think a 50/50 chance. It looks better organized.
Amazing water on Mars and none in the caribbean

Quoting 692. MrNatural:

Water on Mars......WOW
The Mars announcement isn't the first observation of liquid water on Mars. Liquid water brines were observed on the leg struts of the Phoenix Lander in 2008/2009.

"Renno will present these findings on March 23, 2009 at the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Houston.
Previously, scientists believed that water existed on Mars only as ice or water vapor because of the planet's low temperature and atmospheric pressure. They thought that ice in the Red Planet's current climate could sublimate, or vaporize, but they didn't think it could melt.
This analysis shows how that assumption may be incorrect. Temperature fluctuation in the arctic region of Mars where Phoenix landed and salts in the soil could create pockets of water too salty to freeze in the climate of the landing site, Renno says.
Photos of one of the lander's legs show droplets that grew during the polar summer. Based on the temperature of the leg and the presence of large amounts of "perchlorate" salts detected in the soil, scientists believe the droplets were most likely salty liquid water and mud that splashed on the spacecraft when it touched down.
The lander was guided down by rockets whose exhaust melted the top layer of ice below a thin sheet of soil.
Some of the mud droplets that splashed on the lander's leg appear to have grown by absorbing water from the atmosphere, Renno says. Images suggest that some of the droplets darkened, then moved and merged - physical evidence that they were liquid.
The wet chemistry lab on Phoenix found evidence of perchlorate salts, which likely include magnesium and calcium perchlorate hydrates. These compounds have freezing temperatures of about -90 and -105 Fahrenheit respectively.
The temperature at the landing site ranged from approximately -5 to -140 Fahrenheit, with a median temperature around -75 Fahrenheit. Temperatures at the landing site were mostly warmer than this during the first months of the mission.
Thermodynamic calculations offer additional evidence that salty liquid water can exist where Phoenix landed and elsewhere on Mars. The calculations also predicts a droplet growth rate that is consistent with what was observed.
And they show that it is impossible for ice to sublimate from the cold ground just under the strut of the lander's leg and be deposited on a warmer strut, a hypothesis that has been suggested."
The Doc should be on any minute. :)





Quoting 695. 19N81W:

Amazing water on Mars and none in the caribbean




I bet beach-front property there is expensive.
000
FXUS62 KTAE 281349
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
949 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

...Flash Flood Watch in Effect for Parts of the Region...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Forecast remains on track this morning with the main concerns
being heavy rainfall. This morning we have seen a broad area of
showers over much of the area. PoPs will be in the likely to
definite categories. So far the heaviest rain has stayed just to
our west, but some areas in the panhandle have already seen 2
inches. Flash flood watch remains in effect until Tuesday
afternoon. Rain totals will range from 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated amounts up to 8 inches. In addition to heavy rain, there
is also a threat of isolated tornados today. SPC has the area near
the immediate coast in a marginal risk today. Cloud cover will
keep highs limited to the low 80s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]... Low cigs, low-end MVFR to IFR,
will persist at all terminals through the period. Periods of -RA
will prevail as well, with occasional IFR cigs/vis in heavier TSRA.

&&

.Prev Discussion [630 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The upper low near the northwest Gulf Coast will begin to move east
and open up during this period. The approaching surface low that has
garnered so much attention should lift northeast across the FL
Panhandle coast somewhere between Apalachicola and Pensacola Tuesday
morning. Categorical PoPs and areas of heavy rain will continue
through much of the night along with the flash flood threat,
particularly if we can get a north-south oriented band to set up.
The low will then further weaken as it tracks northeast across the
forecast area on Tuesday. This should end the flood threat. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday maintaining PoPs
across the region, albeit lower than what we will see in the near
term.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 281442
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1042 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM SARASOTA
NORTHWARD TO LEVY...

...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.UPDATE...
A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATION AS YESTERDAY MORNING...OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/TEXAS REGION...WITH A RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA .

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH ANOTHER LOW TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST
RIDGING SOUTHWARD. THE WIND FLOW WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE IS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE JUST HOW MUCH
RAINFALL THE FORECAST AREA WILL ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF. CURRENT RADAR RETURNS SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE MOSTLY JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE MOST PART...GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RIGHT NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SMALL SHIFT TO THE EAST OR WEST WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON RAINFALL TOTALS. BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT...AND INTO TUESDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO
KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING
(THOUGH LIMITED WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER). VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT FORM.
It looks like it's only a matter of time. Slow steady movement towards the coast.
Quoting 698. Grothar:

The Doc should be on any minute. :)






Thank goodness the pope left this past weekend and not next weekend. It would have been a nasty wet visit.
WTNT31 KNHC 281450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 69.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 69.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this
afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 702. Sfloridacat5:

It looks like it's only a matter of time. Slow steady movement towards the coast.

wow look at all that rain coming


Whole lotta shakin' goin on



watch out here
Updated CIMMS shear chart (11 am) for those that are interested; shear up to 50 knots now across parts of the Northern Gulf:



Quoting 702. Sfloridacat5:

It looks like it's only a matter of time. Slow steady movement towards the coast.



Based on the NWS discussion, the first line will probably weaken as it moves in because the main energy is still off to the west and and southwest. The NWS has 40-50 pops for west central FL during today but bumps them up to 70% for tonight through tomorrow. Once the main energy source gets closer, the lines of showers and thunderstorms should be stronger as they make it on shore, and more frequent.
Quoting 705. LargoFl:

wow look at all that rain coming


rain will break apart as it moves inland. If this was at night.. it would hold together. Still will see rainshowers but nothing very heavy a long the west coast of florida away from the beaches.
Quoting 668. washingtonian115:

Lol to the folks making it seem like we have a developing cat 3 going on 4 off the coast of Florida this morning.

I'm just sitting at my desk watching the rain inching closer to the coast... That and crying over the Ravens :(
Quoting 710. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Now what in the name of One seven three four six seven three two one four seven six Charlie three two seven eight nine seven seven seven six four three Tango seven three two Victor seven three one one seven eight eight eight seven three two four seven six seven eight nine seven six four three seven six lock could be happening there?
Quoting 715. 62901IL:



are you ok or do ya need a little nap
Looks like the surface low has ducked underneath the convection. Still looks very decoupled, though.

Quoting 713. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Ida is certainly making a comeback. Wonder if it'll be renumbered?
Switching gears to the Pacific, the core of Dujan is now clearly ashore in Taiwan and the capitol is in the NE Quad (or close to it):

Good Afternoon everyone..went all rambo..

12z UKMET on TD 11



763

WTNT80 EGRR 281618



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2015



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 68.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.09.2015 27.4N 68.8W WEAK

00UTC 29.09.2015 28.0N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.09.2015 27.9N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.09.2015 28.1N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.09.2015 28.0N 71.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.10.2015 27.6N 72.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.10.2015 26.9N 73.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.10.2015 26.5N 72.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.10.2015 26.9N 72.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.10.2015 27.7N 70.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.10.2015 29.2N 68.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.10.2015 32.0N 68.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2015 35.2N 69.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
Quoting 716. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

are you ok or do ya need a little nap


I'm all right.

Here is what I posted. Link
WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 121.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 121.5E
A weak ridge has been forming this morning over the SW part of Florida into the extreme eastern GOM... this is forming from the upper trough/low in the NW GOM... 99L does have a decent chance now of getting better organized for the next 12-18hrs as it moves NNE-NE towards the Big Bend area. There is more going for this than against it.. only things against it are #1 Time and #2 shear but shear is less cause it's moving in tandom with the flow.
Hey Keep. Fall hit Toronto yet?
We needed the rain but may end up getting too much of a good thing. The rains started last night and continue to train over our area. Before I left my house this morning I had almost 2" of rain from the overnight rain and it has continued to rain for the last few hours without no letup on sight.

727. MahFL
Quoting 692. MrNatural:

Water on Mars......WOW


Flowing water, it's been known for decades water was on Mars.
Seeing the giant blobs just off the coast has to have the Tampa folks shaking in their rain boots.

Southeast River Flood Stage Map
729. MahFL
Quoting 709. weathermanwannabe:

Updated CIMMS shear chart (11 am) for those that are interested; shear up to 50 knots now across parts of the Northern Gulf:






But 5kts near 99L.
Quoting 725. Dakster:

Hey Keep. Fall hit Toronto yet?


mid week onward we be seeing mid to low 30's for lows overnight wed thurs Friday

heat phase 1 of 3 phases will be turned on tomorrow night


Quoting 727. MahFL:



Flowing water, it's been known for decades water was on Mars.


I was impressed by the fish personally...
Best Bet in Location is

25.2 and 86W moving NE 30dg @ 21mph
733. MahFL
Quoting 719. weathermanwannabe:

Switching gears to the Pacific, the core of Dujan is now clearly ashore in Taiwan and the capitol is in the NE Quad (or close to it):




42nm south of the capitol as per the last update.
Quoting 713. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



TD11's forecast track is to the NW, but it does not appear to be moving that direction. Will be interesting to see recon reports.
Noon (EST) image of Dujuan: parts of Taiwan are currently in the grips of 100 + mph sustained winds with gusts of 125 knots.
Southeast Asia 2


Dang..UKMET is showing a hurricane for TD 11..looks to be heading for the NE..this is getting to be concerning situation..



Quoting 730. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



mid week onward we be seeing mid to low 30's for lows overnight wed thurs Friday

heat phase 1 of 3 phases will be turned on tomorrow night





Winter arrived early in Alaska. Fairbanks had record snow by a LOT. From just above a trace amount to 6.7 inches. Anchorage is supposed to get slammed with it tonight/tomorrow.

But I am still in hot South FLorida. I actually need to add pontoons to my cars so I can drive...er... boat to work.
Quoting 734. PensacolaBuoy:


TD11's forecast track is to the NW, but it does not appear to be moving that direction. Will be interesting to see recon reports.
looks like its just sitting there stewing deciding what too do
Quoting 737. Dakster:



Winter arrived early in Alaska. Fairbanks had record snow by a LOT. From just above a trace amount to 6.7 inches. Anchorage is supposed to get slammed with it tonight/tomorrow.

But I am still in hot South FLorida. I actually need to add pontoons to my cars so I can drive...er... boat to work.
Siberian cold front crossing Alaska today with the first of an early season snows its the beginning of the end for mild weather till april
Quoting 734. PensacolaBuoy:


TD11's forecast track is to the NW, but it does not appear to be moving that direction. Will be interesting to see recon reports.
Heading towards FL
741. MahFL
A hot tower on 99L now :

It looks like the story in the near future is going to be TD 11..if the UKMET is right..

Parts of what I could locate from one of the Taiwanese news sites:

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/20 15/09/29/2003628831


“To be honest, we all feel very depressed. Any damage might further prolong the time needed for reconstruction,” said Chou Chih-kang, an Wulai neighborhood leader.

Television footage showed fast-moving flood waters swamping roads just outside Taipei and huge waves crashing against the northeast coastline.

Taipei 101 also reported that one of the glass doors to the underground portion of its mall was damaged by a strong gust of wind, but it had been repaired by the evening.

As of 7pm last night, the Central Emergency Operation Center said no injuries had been reported.

A total of 937,900 households nationwide lost power at some point during the day and as of 7:20pm, 532,800 households were still waiting for power to be restored, mostly in Yilan County and Taichung.

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said Dujuan made landfall at Suao Township (蘇澳) in Yilan County at 5:40pm. Suao brought gusts of wind reaching 243.7kph, the second-highest on record since a weather station was established in the township 34 years ago, the bureau said.

The strongest gusts ever experienced in Suao occurred during Typhoon Gladys in 1994, when wind speeds hit 246.9kph, the bureau said.

As of 9pm, the storm was centered 30km northeast of Taichung, moving at a speed of 20kph west-northwest, the bureau said.

With a radius of 220km, the storm’s strongest winds were estimated to be 184kph, it said.

A super flood tide was due yesterday evening, and this, coupled with heavy tides brought by Dujuan, could inundate low-lying areas along the west coast of Taiwan proper, as well as riversides in the area.

Authorities said coastal areas could be particularly dangerous as tides are affected by the “supermoon” — a rare astrological event in which the moon appears brighter and larger — because it has reached its closest orbital point to Earth, resulting in its gravitational pull being stronger than usual.

Perdido Key Florida commenting here. There was approx .45 in the rain gauge this morning accumulated from 1130 last night to 0520 this morning. From 0520 - 0700 an additional 4.17 inches of rain fell - and it fell hard!! I work at nearby NAS P'cola - and it didn't stop raining here until past 0900 I think.
We needed it. And I think we've got more coming as the low by Louisiana makes it way eastward across the GOM. At least that's what I heard...
And me without a good pair of rain boots...
Quoting 741. MahFL:

A hot tower on 99L now :




Me: Computer, prepare to enter code on hot towers for 99L.
Computer: Enter code.
Me: security code Charlie-tango-victor-lock
Quoting 739. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Siberian cold front crossing Alaska today with the first of an early season snows its the beginning of the end for mild weather till april


Do you promise only until April?
UKMET run is a doom run..

look at the precip for the NE..and now think if TD 11 comes in as a hurricane?





749. 7544
Quoting 740. Camerooski:

Heading towards FL


looks like huh inching further west scince this morning mabe the high will build back in while its there wait watch and see
Quoting 718. 62901IL:



Ida is certainly making a comeback. Wonder if it'll be renumbered?
Thats not Ida, thats TD 99L but it looks like Ida because its moving towards the WSW towards FL, when it should be moving NW. Also former-Ida is still alive and has convection with it, could still be something to watch.
Quoting 736. ncstorm:

Dang..UKMET is showing a hurricane for TD 11..looks to be heading for the NE..this is getting to be concerning situation..






How good has the UKMET been this season?
Quoting 749. 7544:



looks like huh inching further west scince this morning mabe the high will build back in while its there wait watch and see
That would be a bad scenario considering there in 5 knots of shear to FLA
Quoting 751. Camerooski:

Thats not Ida, thats TD 99L but it looks like Ida because its moving towards the WSW towards FL, when it should be moving NW. Also former-Ida is still alive and has convection with it, could still be something to watch.


Oh.
755. MahFL
Quoting 734. PensacolaBuoy:


TD11's forecast track is to the NW, but it does not appear to be moving that direction. Will be interesting to see recon reports.


Looks SW to me.

Steering map says WSW ish. :

Quoting 715. 62901IL:



Now what in the name of One seven three four six seven three two one four seven six Charlie three two seven eight nine seven seven seven six four three Tango seven three two Victor seven three one one seven eight eight eight seven three two four seven six seven eight nine seven six four three seven six lock could be happening there?

El Nino-generated shear plus the outflow from EPac system Marty. And even that little upper level devil along the Texas coastline. Nothing but some downpours will form in the Gulf with that there.
I suspect we have our next named system now off FL. Its a good thing 99L doesn't listen to Doc's blog. LOL as this system has sprang to life fast.

12z UKMET accumulation totals..up to 72 hours



Quoting 750. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Polar jet still too far north and not energetic enough yet to take the southerly track over the Pacific, but you can see a lot of westerly energy nonetheless trying to rev up just from the outflow of the enhanced convective activity in the El Nino regions.
Quoting 757. StormTrackerScott:

I suspect we have our next named system now off FL. Its a good thing 99L doesn't listen to Doc's blog. LOL as this system has sprang to life fast.


Plus the NHC already has the 43 mph wind report form the buoy yesterday, and if anything it has strengthened.
Quoting 755. MahFL:



Looks SW to me.

Steering map says WSW ish. :


Considering that there is no shear if TD 11 kept moving WSW towards FL, it could RI
Go get it 99L. LOL!

Maybe Recon finds North winds?






Link
Very strong winds and heavy rain now surging for the West Coast of FL. Should be on shore with in the hour.

765. 7544
Quoting 762. StormTrackerScott:

Go get it 99L. LOL!




yep 99l is getting it together at this hour and 98 l looks to be stalling out hmm this could get very intresting today
STS, its not all that serious man.You're making it sound so much worse. Worst case, its heavy rain and 40-50mph gusts. Not a huge deal lol. It's not going to be named bro.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
768. MahFL
Quoting 761. Camerooski:

Considering that there is no shear if TD 11 kept moving WSW towards FL, it could RI


That was not a shear map, it was a steering map, there is 25kts of shear over TD11, if there was no shear TD11 would not be a naked swirl :


Quoting 710. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks Like the Newest, Strongest -Invest could be forming near the Houston, Texas Coast. Its circulation appears a bit more pronounced and closed as a low level center than even 99L At present. It would be good to get an Ascat pass there though...

Blessings!
Quoting 733. MahFL:



42nm south of the capitol as per the last update.


42 nanometers? Geez, that's pretty close!

jk