WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Potential Gulf of Mexico Development Next Week; Japan Watches TS Dujuan

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2015

A southerly flow of moisture from the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf of Mexico will develop this weekend, and our top three models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are showing an area of low pressure capable of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression forming near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico next week will likely bring high wind shear to the Gulf, limiting the potential for any system in the Gulf to strengthen. The models are currently predicting that this system will get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from Louisiana to Florida by next Wednesday, but forecasts this far into the future are low-confidence. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.


Figure 1. Latest long-range radar image from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar.

High seas, strong winds for Southeast U.S. coast
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of North Carolina, which was being tracked by NHC on Tuesday as Invest 97L, is no longer organized enough to be considered an area of interest, but is bringing heavy rains to the waters just offshore from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where a High Surf Advisory for waves of 6 - 9 feet is posted until Thursday morning. The disturbance is under high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots, and there is plenty of dry air around it, which is preventing development. Long-range radar on Wednesday morning from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar showed no spiral banding or signs of organization to 97L's precipitation echoes. 97L will move slowly west-southwest the next few days, bringing strong winds and occasional heavy rains to the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday, and to the coast of South Carolina on Thursday. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show development of 97L into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida no threat to land
Tropical Storm Ida continues to wander aimlessly over the Central Atlantic, well away from any land areas. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that Ida continued to struggle against moderate wind shear, with the center of circulation partially exposed to view, and all of Ida's heavy thunderstorms limited to the southeast side of the center. Ida will meander slowly today through Thursday, but by Friday, a trough of low pressure passing to its north will likely pull Ida to the north. It appears unlikely that Ida will pose a long-range risk to North America.

Tropical Storm Dujuan a threat to Japan
Tropical Storm Dujuan, located about 700 miles southeast of Okinawa in Japan's Ryukyu Islands at 8 am EDT Wednesday, appears destined to become a major typhoon that will threaten Japan early next week. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has kept Dujuan somewhat disorganized, despite warm sea-surface temperatures. However, the storm should move into the southwest corner of an upper-level ridge by Thursday, allowing wind shear to drop and a strong upper-level outflow channel to develop, promoting possible rapid intensification. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects that Dujuan will intensify to Category 3 strength and pass near Okinawa island near 00 UTC Monday. However, this forecast is much lower confidence than usual, given a complex upper-level steering pattern that will develop this weekend. We have models showing a weak Dujuan passing well south of Okinawa, and models showing a stronger typhoon recurving and missing the Ryukyu Islands entirely. JTWC is taking a middle approach, and it remains to be seen if this will be correct.

It's been a remarkably active typhoon season in the Western Pacific; Dujuan is the 21st named storm so far in 2015. According to statistics from Digital Typhoon, only six other typhoon seasons since 1951 have had more than 21 named storms by this point in the season. An average season has 26 - 27 named storm during the entire year.

Fall is here!
The September equinox (also called the southward or autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere) arrived on Wednesday morning at 4:21 am EDT. This is the latest September equinox since 2011. Very rarely, it can occur on September 24: the last time this happened was in 1931, and the next time will be in 2303. Happy autumn--or happy spring, if you're south of the equator!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. StormTrackerScott:



Could use some wet weather now as several days of 90 degree temps are stressing my St. Augustine grass.




No rain at my location in the last 6 days. Just a tad over 4" for the month so far.
Extended range outlook per NWS Ruskin:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE ENTER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW/TROUGH SHOWN BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO BE MIGRATING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT AT THIS LONG
RANGE...THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO
HOW THIS WHOLE THING WILL EVOLVE. WILL NOT GET INTO SPECIFICS ABOUT
WHICH MEMBERS SHOW WHAT...BUT JUST KNOW THAT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A
WEAK TROUGH...TO AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH RATHER
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF. IT IS SIMPLY
TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED IN THE FORECAST OR GET TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT OVERALL...CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY FAVORABLE (AT THE
CURRENT TIME) FOR ROBUST TC DEVELOPMENT. WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY...BUT THOSE WITH PLANS FOR BOATING SHOULD CERTAINLY KEEP A
WATCH ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. THOSE WITH BEACH PLANS NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT SHOULD A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COME TO
BE...THAT THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING DURING
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. FINALLY...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SYSTEM FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF...HOWEVER...HEAVIER RAIN BANDS COULD EASILY BE WELL DISPLACED
FROM THIS TRACK. ONCE AGAIN...WILL SIMPLY HAVE TO WATCH THE MODEL
TRENDS CLOSELY.
Just updates and it appears the CPC will increase anomalies across Nino 1&2 to over 3C come Monday. Nino 3.4 could go up to 2.4C as well.

Here is the am Charleston NWS discussion noting the tropical moisture from the Gulf Stream and the disturbance off of NE Florida pushing in with rain:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES WERE CONSOLIDATING OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST. WEAK SURFACE PRES FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA
TODAY AS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY BACKS IN TOWARD THE
COAST.
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL
BLANKET MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE EAST OF I-95 AND NORTH OF I-16
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY. STEADIER OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS
OCCURRING AROUND THE TIME OF ELEVATED HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM COULD EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH A MIX OF FRESH AND SALT WATER.

WE LOWERED SOME HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH MOST AREAS FAILING TO REACH 80 TODAY...MANY INLAND AREAS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT LOOKS INTERESTING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS MODELS PAINT AN IMPRESSIVE TRACK OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ARE STRONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DECENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WHERE
THE RIBBON OF HIGHEST QPF FALLS...EITHER ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA OR PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PEE DEE
OR GRAND STRAND. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MENTIONS ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND N OF I-16 WITH
CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA. INSTABILITY REMAINS POOR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS EAST OF I-95 TONIGHT.
First visible for the day coming in.

CFSv2 has completely busted the values for Nino 1&2. Not even close to being right.

The GFS Ensembles are anywhere from the West Coast of FL. to Louisiana. I guess it is going to depend on the strength of the storm too.

509. IKE
Should have an invest number coming up soon on the GOM possibility.
Anyone have a link to the CMC?
Quoting 510. cat6band:

Anyone have a link to the CMC?


Link
Thanks!


Quoting 511. GeoffreyWPB:



Link
Quoting 492. weathermanwannabe:

Gray's Reef just to the SE of Savannah offshore (right under the swirl)...........Pressures are actually rising; just a run of the mill t-storm complex related to the trof moving ashore (with a funny swirl to boot) but gusting at 29 knots...........It's going to feel like a depression coming ashore:

Station 41008
NDBC
Location:
 31.400N 80.868W
Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2015 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (30�) at 23.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (75�)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.94 in and rising
Air Temperature: 74.3 F
Dew Point: 72.5 F
Water Temperature: 79.7 F


Water temps only 79 degrees. That's only marginal for tropical development.
Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a coastal
Flood Advisory... which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EDT this evening.

* Location... low-lying areas along the South Carolina coast
including downtown Charleston.

* Tide levels... peaking between 7.1 and 7.4 feet around 530 PM.
Shallow saltwater flooding will be possible between 4 and 7 PM.

* Impacts... inundation of saltwater in and near low-lying coastal
areas could lead to some Road closures and flooding of
properties. Heavy rainfall is possible late this afternoon which
could exacerbate flooding concerns.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Be prepared for the possibility of Road closures and minor
flooding of properties. If travel is necessary... do not attempt
to drive through water of unknown depth.
Good morning everyone. It appears that my area in Southern VA will be getting a hefty dose of rain soon.
A stormy day for Recruits at Parris Island no doubt.
Quoting 500. StormTrackerScott:



Could use some wet weather now as several days of 90 degree temps are stressing my St. Augustine grass.




Almost 3 weeks without rain here in NW Florida and my St. Augustine is stressed too. Sprinkler water keeps it alive but natural rain water really greens it up!
no namer headed to the outer banks. this one is wetter than the one we had a few yrs back here in e cen fl.
Quoting 501. tampabaymatt:



No rain at my location in the last 6 days. Just a tad over 4" for the month so far.


For once I've got you beat. I've had 9.43" this month, but 8.8" of that fell during the first two weeks of the month. It's been relatively dry since.
Quoting 518. 69Viking:



Almost 3 weeks without rain here in NW Florida and my St. Augustine is stressed too. Sprinkler water keeps it alive but natural rain water really greens it up!


My cactus only grows with natural T storm rainfall. Tap water just keeps it alive, but it doesn't grow. Quite amazing to see the difference between the two types of water on plant growth.
Quoting 509. IKE:

Should have an invest number coming up soon on the GOM possibility.


IKE, did you get some of that rain the other day? Looks like the Eastern half of Okaloosa county got a good soaking while those of us in the Western half of the county didn't see a drop of rain when we really need it.
waiting for the drought. its coming. this time floridians there are twice as many people using the system. i can see watering the lawn and other wateruse.luxuries will be forbidden.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
407 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
HAND EDITS FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.


A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT PERSIST ACROSS THE
GULF THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND DE-
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NW GULF THEN BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPING LOW
PRES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND SUN. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
TO THE EXTENT THAT THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISCORD WITH REGARD TO
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AND THE NOW LESS
AGGRESSIVE UKMET...CALLING FOR LOW PRES TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH
COAST OF YUCATAN SUNDAY...THEN DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 25 TO 30 KT ON THE
NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES...WITH FORECAST SEAS TO 12-13 FT IN
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.
526. IKE
Quoting 523. 69Viking:



IKE, did you get some of that rain the other day? Looks like the Eastern half of Okaloosa county got a good soaking while those of us in the Western half of the county didn't see a drop of rain when we really need it.
I got .27 inches of rain. Much welcomed.
I just got off the telephone with someone in South Carolina; the drizzly steady "tropical" rain is slowly moving in.
Quoting 517. Patrap:

A stormy day for Recruits at Parris Island no doubt.


Speaking of that, I am curious. Parris Island is a training facility, right? The one featured in Full Metal Jacket?

Anyways, do they have some sort of procedure or something in case of an impending hurricane?
Guess I am gonna have to watch this gulf system closely and see if it develops. Getting married outdoors next weekend in Raleigh seems I dodged a bullet this weekend hoping it gets it all out of its system by then. Don't want to deal with a system riding up the east coast somehow.
Quoting 528. FunnelVortex:



Speaking of that, I am curious. Parris Island is a training facility, right? The one featured in Full Metal Jacket?

Anyways, do they have some sort of procedure or something in case of an impending hurricane?


Indeed they do, as the USMC has a plan to bug out of there when needed.

Also in San Diego, the other USMC recruit depot, they have Earthquake drills to empty the 3 story Barracks as well.


heavy rain in the southeast on september 24 2015


oppss!!
Ok, that blob off the SE coast is not a closed low?? It has convection, spin, it has spiral banding on radar, and it is over the gulf stream. I would like to what it is then. Seems to me the NHC had originally labeled the invest 97 way to the north but it faded away so they seem to be reluctant to label a new invest which materialized much farther south than they initially thought to be. The city of Charelston should be properly warned of this "thing" before there is a complete mess on their hands for rush hour commuters this afternoon. I live in Moncks Corner SC and I have to drive down to Daniel Island in the afternoon. I would like to know what I would be driving into.
Quoting 521. Sfloridacat5:



My cactus only grows with natural T storm rainfall. Tap water just keeps it alive, but it doesn't grow. Quite amazing to see the difference between the two types of water on plant growth.


Same goes for my potted plants. They get watered everyday via a timer with tap water. The plants look good but after a good rain they perk up and look a lot better, they get a deeper green to them and grow thicker.
Quoting 526. IKE:

I got .27 inches of rain. Much welcomed.


Lucky you, hopefully with the changing weather pattern and the increased rain chances it brings my area will actually get some soon. El Nino is supposed to bring us a wet, cool Winter, I sure hope it holds true!
Quoting 534. dartboardmodel:

Ok, that blob off the SE coast is not a closed low?? It has convection, spin, it has spiral banding on radar, and it is over the gulf stream. I would like to what it is then. Seems to me the NHC had originally labeled the invest 97 way to the north but it faded away so they seem to be reluctant to label a new invest which materialized much farther south than they initially thought to be. The city of Charelston should be properly warned of this "thing" before there is a complete mess on their hands for rush hour commuters this afternoon. I live in Moncks Corner SC and I have to drive down to Daniel Island in the afternoon. I would like to know what I would be driving into.


rain and wind. Charleston has a flood watch out already. Just stay on top of the local forecasts. They got it covered!
Quoting 528. FunnelVortex:



Speaking of that, I am curious. Parris Island is a training facility, right? The one featured in Full Metal Jacket?

Anyways, do they have some sort of procedure or something in case of an impending hurricane?

Did you just ask if the Marines are prepared for something? LOL!
Quoting 534. dartboardmodel:

Ok, that blob off the SE coast is not a closed low?? It has convection, spin, it has spiral banding on radar, and it is over the gulf stream. I would like to what it is then. Seems to me the NHC had originally labeled the invest 97 way to the north but it faded away so they seem to be reluctant to label a new invest which materialized much farther south than they initially thought to be. The city of Charelston should be properly warned of this "thing" before there is a complete mess on their hands for rush hour commuters this afternoon. I live in Moncks Corner SC and I have to drive down to Daniel Island in the afternoon. I would like to know what I would be driving into.



do not forget
TURN AROUND. DON"T DROWN!
541. CHSSw
Raining like cats and dogs in North Charleston.
Quoting 534. dartboardmodel:

Ok, that blob off the SE coast is not a closed low?? It has convection, spin, it has spiral banding on radar, and it is over the gulf stream. I would like to what it is then. Seems to me the NHC had originally labeled the invest 97 way to the north but it faded away so they seem to be reluctant to label a new invest which materialized much farther south than they initially thought to be. The city of Charelston should be properly warned of this "thing" before there is a complete mess on their hands for rush hour commuters this afternoon. I live in Moncks Corner SC and I have to drive down to Daniel Island in the afternoon. I would like to know what I would be driving into.

Despite all you see in that blob, you will be really, really disappointed at the lack of dramatic storm effects. Sure, it will be windy from the grand strand down to Hardeeville, but only along the coast. Not even close to storm conditions. Just sayin'.
Quoting 542. Look2thesky:


Despite all you see in that blob, you will be really, really disappointed at the lack of dramatic storm effects. Sure, it will be windy from the grand strand down to Hardeeville, but only along the coast. Not even close to storm conditions. Just sayin'.


With all due respect, I cant see him being really really disappointed at the lack of dramatic storm effects. He/ she said he/she has to drive in it.
Quoting 538. fmbill:


Did you just ask if the Marines are prepared for something? LOL!


Yes. Yes I did.
The SC blob is a last minute surprise ditch effort by Mother Nature to go tropical after an interesting boost from the Gulf stream on a pre-existing disturbance headed inbound under heavy shear. A great watch and as I mentioned earlier, an "unofficial" TD rolling in..................Now we have to hope that the flooding will not cause major problems and that folks will remember to "turn around - don't drown" when those flood waters start flowing over those roads and neighborhoods in the lowlands.
Quoting 515. Patrap:




Looks like a pretty crappy day in South Carolina.
Lordy...it may get sloppy where you are Pat..Edit...I thought this was LA...please forgive me.

Quoting 514. Patrap:

Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a coastal
Flood Advisory... which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EDT this evening.

* Location... low-lying areas along the South Carolina coast
including downtown Charleston.

* Tide levels... peaking between 7.1 and 7.4 feet around 530 PM.
Shallow saltwater flooding will be possible between 4 and 7 PM.

* Impacts... inundation of saltwater in and near low-lying coastal
areas could lead to some Road closures and flooding of
properties. Heavy rainfall is possible late this afternoon which
could exacerbate flooding concerns
.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Be prepared for the possibility of Road closures and minor
flooding of properties. If travel is necessary... do not attempt
to drive through water of unknown depth.

We are in a moderate drought here in the Mobile, AL area. We could use some of that tropical moisture, but certainly no flooding.
Quoting 545. weathermanwannabe:

The SC blob is a last minute surprise ditch effort by Mother Nature to go tropical after an interesting boost from the Gulf stream on a pre-existing disturbance headed inbound under heavy shear. A great watch and as I mentioned earlier, an "unofficial" TD rolling in..................Now we have to hope that the flooding will not cause major problems and that folks will remember to "turn around - don't drown" when those flood waters start flowing over those roads and neighborhoods in the lowlands.


Wish that young girl in Texas that was coming home from her prom a couple months ago had remembered it. You may think it sounds silly or you may get tired of hearing it, but you better hope it pops into your head when you need it.
From Charleston NWS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

* TIDE LEVELS...PEAKING BETWEEN 7.1 AND 7.4 FEET AROUND 530 PM.
SHALLOW SALTWATER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.

* IMPACTS...INUNDATION OF SALTWATER IN AND NEAR LOW-LYING COASTAL
AREAS COULD LEAD TO SOME ROAD CLOSURES AND FLOODING OF
PROPERTIES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ROAD CLOSURES AND MINOR
FLOODING OF PROPERTIES. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.


OOPPPS...Sorry Pat. I didnt see that you already posted this
Coastal Flooding Advisory for SC; have to see how much rain comes down today:


COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
859 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

SCZ048>051-242300-
/O.NEW.KCHS.CF.Y.0024.150924T2000Z-150924T2300Z/
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
859 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

* TIDE LEVELS...PEAKING BETWEEN 7.1 AND 7.4 FEET AROUND 530 PM.
SHALLOW SALTWATER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.

* IMPACTS...INUNDATION OF SALTWATER IN AND NEAR LOW-LYING COASTAL
AREAS COULD LEAD TO SOME ROAD CLOSURES AND FLOODING OF
PROPERTIES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ROAD CLOSURES AND MINOR
FLOODING OF PROPERTIES. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
10:58 AM EDT

Tropical Depression?

Come on, Ida. You are supposed to be the "I" storm.




000
WTNT35 KNHC 241447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015

...IDA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a
northwestward motion by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.




NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 507. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 has completely busted the values for Nino 1&2. Not even close to being right.


000
FXUS62 KILM 241357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
957 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AND WIND TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM THURSDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA
PAN HANDLE CONTINUES AS THE 300-700 MB FLOW IS PUMPING IN MOIST
TROPICAL AREA INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE ABROAD 1012 MB
LOW IS SITTING ABOUT 110 MILES OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE.
THESE TWO LOWS COMBINED WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM THE MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
A VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES.
VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW. THIS EVENT IS
CLEARLY A RAIN EVENT.
Quoting 500. StormTrackerScott:



Could use some wet weather now as several days of 90 degree temps are stressing my St. Augustine grass.





Jack Frost would lethally stress my St Augustine grass by THanksgiving. :-)


Bermudagrass is hardy here in DC metro most (not all) winters.. the last killer winter for it was 1976-77 when the golf course I worked at, with Bermudagrass fairways, lost 99% of it. If you want guaranteed winter hardiness this far north you need fescue or bluegrass. Zoysia is also fully hardy here but grows slowly and is brown in the cool half of the year.

Most lawns here are brown and dead looking because of drought. But these grasses are adapted to summer heat/drought and will recover with the first significant rain. Temperatures are finally cool enough to break their heat dormancy.
Tropical Depression IDA
11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 24
Location: 20.2°N 44.9°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Remember the storm the GFS has showing yesterday? Well it still is in the runs, except in the more recent run it isn't a sub-1000mb storm anymore, just a typical weak low. And it tracks much further east and misses my area entirely.

Might be dropped next couple runs.


Quoting 553. hydrus:




Nice batch of T-storms coming off the S. Amer. coast into the Car.
Quoting 554. capeflorida:

10:58 AM EDT




What a lovely day in HHI
96C is on the cusp of being a tropical depression. CPHC may issue advisories later today on it.
funny thing how weather stuff goes.
One day, people bash someone for suggesting possible development in a spot of disturbed weather that looks suspicious,....and another day, there is clamor & talk about what percentage chance there is for development of some nonexistent system that might appear on the map in a week or so. Lol. -- Not saying there's nothing to it, though, just funny how it happens & seems right one way & bashed the other. haha. Now we got models showing what might happen in a week, which could be right on for all we know, while a week or so back, someone was bashing another's use of models like it was nothing but conjecture. Hee hee.
Every storm this year it seems have taken tips from Grand Master Karen on how to stay alive for longer than expected.
Quoting 567. washingtonian115:

Every storm this year it seems have taken tips from Grand Master Karen on how to stay alive for longer than expected.


Erika gave Karen a run for it in a shot at the title
Yup; most people have been watching the Gulf for potential development and the area off of Georgia is bringing in the most tropical moisture............Typical of many systems that spin up, or try to spin up, from trofs and frontal remants closer to shore in the latter part of the Atlantic season. We have seen lots of last minute disturbances spin up, with little or no model support, along the coast of Texas (Bay of Campeche disturbances), the Northern Gulf coast, or this area on the Atlantic side between Jax and the Carolinas over the years; by the same token, as we have today, higher sheer levels often keep these systems from intensifying (or organization meriting invest status) before moving in-shore and NHC does not "flag" them because of the proximity to land.
Quoting 568. K8eCane:



Erika gave Karen a run for it in a shot at the title


Erika and Grace refused to go away.Now Ida refuses to die despite battling shear since it sprang on to the scene last week.
571. FOREX
Quoting 566. WalkingInTheSun:

funny thing how weather stuff goes.
One day, people bash someone for suggesting possible development in a spot of disturbed weather that looks suspicious,....and another day, there is clamor & talk about what percentage chance there is for development of some nonexistent system that might appear on the map in a week or so. Lol. -- Not saying there's nothing to it, though, just funny how it happens & seems right one way & bashed the other. haha. Now we got models showing what might happen in a week, which could be right on for all we know, while a week or so back, someone was bashing another's use of models like it was nothing but conjecture. Hee hee.
And then we wonder why no one from the blog is invited on to the WU show on the Weather Channel?
Guessing the Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson may be addressing/posting a Blog on the Pope's address to Congress and whether he covers the global warming issue; at work so I will not be able to see the speech until later this evening.
Quoting 571. FOREX:

And then we wonder why no one from the blog is invited on to the WU show on the Weather Channel?




You're kidding right? Somehow i dont see that happening.....LOLOLOL
I can see Patrap or Presslord being invited because of Portlight
Quoting 534. dartboardmodel:

Ok, that blob off the SE coast is not a closed low?? It has convection, spin, it has spiral banding on radar, and it is over the gulf stream. I would like to what it is then. Seems to me the NHC had originally labeled the invest 97 way to the north but it faded away so they seem to be reluctant to label a new invest which materialized much farther south than they initially thought to be. The city of Charelston should be properly warned of this "thing" before there is a complete mess on their hands for rush hour commuters this afternoon. I live in Moncks Corner SC and I have to drive down to Daniel Island in the afternoon. I would like to know what I would be driving into.
Yes, there is a closed low. It's shown on the surface map east of Jacksonville. The blob you're seeing off the coast of Charleston is coming from that low, moving along the stationary front. There's no reason for a new invest. The low isn't tropical and will soon be moving inland. The local NWS office seems to be doing a good job with flood warnings for Charleston. It will be rainy storm for the next 12-18 hours, and I'm sure Charleston will have the normal saltwater flooding, but we still have just plain lows that happen in September, and this is one of them.

RAMMB Floaters on the Yucatan and the SC area:



Quoting 571. FOREX:

And then we wonder why no one from the blog is invited on to the WU show on the Weather Channel?
I believe the use of "heehee" and "haha" in a post indicates an emotional or chronological age that's unlikely to lead to a role on television, even on the Weather Channel. :-)
Quoting 573. K8eCane:




You're kidding right? Somehow i dont see that happening.....LOLOLOL
I doubt they would put a blogger on t.v...There is the possibility that some bloggers here have a serious weather background, and would be welcome. Remains to be seen since the show is very new.
The rain continues to come down steady here in the Savannah area. Out here on the islands it has started to get a bit breezy, and we have a low cloud deck moving very quickly north to south.
Massive WWB over the epac.

Quoting 578. SavannahStorm:

The rain continues to come down steady here in the Savannah area. Out here on the islands it has started to get a bit breezy, and we have a low cloud deck moving very quickly north to south.
It looks like the heaviest rain currently remains just off-shore which is a good thing but we have to see what happens later today.........Stay Safe:
Quoting 572. weathermanwannabe:

Guessing the Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson may be addressing/posting a Blog on the Pope's address to Congress and whether he covers the global warming issue; at work so I will not be able to see the speech until later this evening.
He really didn't say much about global warming. What he did say will crank off conservatives and liberals alike. The speech is already posted on many news sites.
Quoting 577. hydrus:

I doubt they would put a blogger on t.v...There is the possibility that some bloggers here have a serious weather background, and would be welcome. Remains to be seen since the show is very new.



I didnt mean to discredit any highly qualified bloggers and I am sure there are some...
Quoting 581. sar2401:

He really didn't say much about global warming. What he did say will crank off conservatives and liberals alike. The speech is already posted on many news sites.


He must have talked about having love for your brothers
Thats not allowed anymore I dont believe
Nowadays its all about how much can i stab my brother in the back
Thats what gets you kudos
its sickening
Quoting 580. weathermanwannabe:

It looks like the heaviest rain currently remains just off-shore which is a good thing but we have to see what happens later today.........Stay Safe:

There's green stuff on radar over SE Alabama coming from the storm off the coast. It's all moving from east to west as you'd expect with this circulation. The green stuff on radar apparently indicates mostly virga. I've had two lines of green stuff pass overhead with nary a drop of rain.
586. FOREX
Quoting 573. K8eCane:




You're kidding right? Somehow i dont see that happening.....LOLOLOL
I can see Patrap or Presslord being invited because of Portlight
I was joking actually. There are several bloggers that would be awesome on that show.
Quoting 566. WalkingInTheSun:

funny thing how weather stuff goes.
One day, people bash someone for suggesting possible development in a spot of disturbed weather that looks suspicious,....and another day, there is clamor & talk about what percentage chance there is for development of some nonexistent system that might appear on the map in a week or so. Lol. -- Not saying there's nothing to it, though, just funny how it happens & seems right one way & bashed the other. haha. Now we got models showing what might happen in a week, which could be right on for all we know, while a week or so back, someone was bashing another's use of models like it was nothing but conjecture. Hee hee.


If the models aren't pointing at you-bash the models and person posting it
If the models are pointing at you-its legit and post the run yourself..

Quoting 586. FOREX:

I was joking actually. There are several bloggers that would be awesome on that show.



Yes i agree. Im sticking my foot in my mouth ( and taking it back out though)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system is expected to form late this week within a
large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from the coast of Central America southwestward into the eastern
Pacific for several hundred miles. The low is likely to develop
into a tropical depression by early next week several hundred miles
southwest or west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and move
northward or northeastward toward the southern coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 577. hydrus:

I doubt they would put a blogger on t.v...There is the possibility that some bloggers here have a serious weather background, and would be welcome. Remains to be seen since the show is very new.


Have you watched the show? They have a different PWS owner on seemingly each show.
maybe a yellow x soon at 2pm
Quoting 584. K8eCane:



He must have talked about having love for your brothers
Thats not allowed anymore I dont believe
Nowadays its all about how much can i stab my brother in the back
Thats what gets you kudos
its sickening
You can read the whole speech here and make your own judgements. He did say nice things about us elderly people, so he's OK in my book. :-)
Quoting 590. tampabaymatt:



Have you watched the show? They have a different PWS owner on seemingly each show.
Yeah, and I've wondered how they are chosen. That part of the show seems to have been created to promote more PWS registrations on WU. It's a large part of WU's revenue, so it makes sense they would highlight it.
Quoting 593. sar2401:

Yeah, and I've wondered how they are chosen. That part of the show seems to have been created to promote more PWS registrations on WU. It's a large part of WU's revenue, so it makes sense they would highlight it.


I don't know, but some of them aren't exactly the most well spoken people, so I don't think you have to have much of a TV presence to be chosen. I don't watch WU TV anymore as I wasn't a fan, but each of the episodes I did watch had a PWS owner on for at least a few minutes.

Some on here are clearly clamoring for a spot on the show, but like you said, I have no idea how the PWS owners are chosen.
Quoting 586. FOREX:

I was joking actually. There are several bloggers that would be awesome on that show.
Unfortunately, how a blogger writes doesn't always translate into how they will appear and talk on TV. I imagine there would have to be some screen tests to make sure they would be appropriate for the show. I've been interviewed many times on TV in relation to some search, flood, fire, or other disaster of the month for my department. I think I did OK at that because I was more or less in control of the information. I don't think I'd do so well in a structured TV show environment.
Quoting 594. tampabaymatt:



I don't know, but some of them aren't exactly the most well spoken people, so I don't think you have to have much of a TV presence to be chosen. I don't watch WU TV anymore as I wasn't a fan, but each of the episodes I did watch had a PWS owner on for at least a few minutes.

Some on here are clearly clamoring for a spot on the show, but like you said, I have no idea how the PWS owners are chosen.
A couple I saw looked and sounded absolutely dorky, but maybe that's that's the demographic they are trying to hit. Since my PWS is no longer on WU, I don't have to worry about being part of that lottery.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 597. hurricanes2018:





yellow x needs to be back to the east
Quoting 568. K8eCane:



Erika gave Karen a run for it in a shot at the title
I'm afraid Ida is going to follow a similar routine. I think the storm will degenerate into either an open trough or dissipate by Saturday. Just like with Erika, there will still be some remnants left, and they will move slowly west. It's not going to regenerate, but I think we have another 10 days of remnant tracking ahead of us. To me, it's all these remnants left over because these storms don't make landfall that have really made this season frustrating.

EDIT: Every single time lately....
Quoting 591. hurricanes2018:

maybe a yellow x soon at 2pm
too close to land for any yellow X
Quoting 592. sar2401:

You can read the whole speech here and make your own judgements. He did say nice things about us elderly people, so he's OK in my book. :-)


Thanks sar
Quoting 576. sar2401:

I believe the use of "heehee" and "haha" in a post indicates an emotional or chronological age that's unlikely to lead to a role on television, even on the Weather Channel. :-)


Hey, it is what it is, and you mustn't sell the American TV audience short.
After all, they tolerate presidential debates being run by members of the opposing party to weed out certain ones;
and, look how popular the crude, poorly-animated foreign cartoons are for kids! - Some of the imports still haven't caught up to the classics like Warner Bros.' stuff, where the mouths and bodies actually moved during the speech and action. (haha)

Now, this is a weather site, so you might wonder how that relates to weather.
Well, did you ever see the old 'toon about the weather insurance with Daffy Duck & Porky Pig?
He finally got a payout when all the discreet little things happened that were weaseled into the policy.
- I wonder if someone here could have predicted that - har!
Quoting 601. Camerooski:

too close to land for any yellow X


I've seen storms form as little as 50-100 miles offshore. Mostly end up being TSs or subtrops though.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE INTO COASTAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL TO
THE NORTH...WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE RISING OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING MORE RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&
CINCINNATI -- Already improbable, the notion of a Mets collapse has become near-impossible. New York all but sewed up the National League East with a 6-4 win over the Reds on Thursday at Great American Ball Park; combined with the Nationals' loss earlier in the day, it grew the Mets' division lead to 7 1/2 games with nine to play while dropping their magic number to 3. on September 24, 2015