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TD 16E Bringing Heavy Rain to Southwest; Tropical Storm Ida Stalling at Sea

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:43 PM GMT on September 21, 2015

Tropical Depression 16E, which formed on Sunday just southwest of Baja California, crossed the peninsula on Sunday night and made a second landfall Monday morning on the east side of Mexico’s Sonoran state, near Tiburón Island. The low- and upper-level circulations associated with TD 16E have decoupled in the grip of southwesterly wind shear, and the depression will become a post-tropical/remnant low in the next few hours as it moves northeast across Mexico, eventually reaching east-central Arizona by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak upper-level low roughly 300 miles southwest of Los Angeles has produced a separate cluster of thunderstorms with prolific lightning. This complex of storms was located just offshore of Southern California on Monday morning, moving northwest parallel to the coast.


Figure 1. This water-vapor satellite image from 1330Z (9:30 am EDT) on Monday, September 22, 2015, shows two distinct rain producers: an upper-level low (left, southwest of California) and Tropical Depression 16E (right, over northwest Mexico): Image credit: NHC.


TD 16E dumped several inches of rain as it passed over Baja California. Geary's webcam on the Sea of Cortez in central Baja captured dramatic images of the storminess on Sunday afternoon. Geary’s PWS recorded 0.73” of rain on Saturday; 2.36” on Sunday; and 0.40” on Monday morning up through 10 AM EDT. The convection associated with TD 16E is now drenching Sonora, with isolated amounts of up to 12” possible in mountainous areas.


Figure 2. MODIS image of TD 16-E approaching Mexico's Baja Peninsula as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Sunday, September 20, 2015. Image credit: NASA.



Figure 3. Flooding in the Central Baja town of San Ignacio, and between Constitucion and La Paz on Sunday, September 20, 2015, from TD 16-E. Image credit: Geary Ritchie. Geary's webcam on the Sea of Cortez in central Baja is capturing some good images of the storm, and his PWS had recorded a 3-day total of 3.49" of rain as of 10 am EDT Monday.


Much of the Southwest U.S. is plastered with flash flood watches for today and/or Tuesday, but the juxtaposition of the upper low with TD 16E complicates the rainfall outlook for the Southwest. Both rainmakers are now tracking a bit southeast of earlier forecasts, which reduces the odds of a widespread soaking rain for the Los Angeles area. From San Diego eastward, the deserts of far southern California could still notch 1-2” from scattered thunderstorms as the upper low swings closer to the area this afternoon into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the focused area of convection associated with TD 16E will bring very heavy rain into southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico on Monday night into Tuesday, with widespread 1-3” amounts and localized totals of up to 8” where the circulation impinges on south- and east-facing slopes. The only time Phoenix has seen more than 3” of rain in a calendar day was just last year, when 3.30” fell on September 8, 2014, goosed by moisture from former Hurricane Norbert.

As TD 16E deteriorates, the weakening upper low will approach it, ingesting some of its moisture and setting the stage for scattered but intense thunderstorms from southeast California into Arizona, southern Utah, and New Mexico on Tuesday. These rains will be less focused than Monday’s, but pockets of torrential rain, downburst wind, and even small hail can be expected. Recreationalists will need to be especially vigilant on Tuesday: in some areas, it could seem that conditions are improving on Tuesday morning before dangerous weather develops later in the day.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending Saturday, September 26, 2015. TD 16-E is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to four inches to Arizona, with even higher amounts possible in isolated spots. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Ida no threat to land
Tropical Storm Ida slowed down its forward speed to 6 mph on Monday morning, and is about to essentially stall out for 3 - 4 days over the Central Atlantic, well away from any land areas. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that Ida continued to struggle against moderate wind shear, with the center of circulation partially exposed to view, and all of Ida's heavy thunderstorms limited to the southeast side of the center. Conditions over the next few days favor intermittent strengthening, and Ida could be a hurricane by the end of the week. By the end of the week, a trough of low pressure passing to its north will likely pull Ida to the north, and it appears unlikely that Ida will pose a long-range risk to North America.


Figure 5. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Ida.

Gulf of Mexico development next week?
A southerly flow of moisture from the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf of Mexico will develop this weekend, and the long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models are advertising the possibility of a tropical depression forming near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by next Monday. Wind shear is likely to be moderate to strong over the region, limiting the potential for this system to strengthen. The eventual track of such a storm so far in the future is highly uncertain; it could potentially stay trapped in Mexico's Bay of Campeche and only affect Mexico, or get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from Louisiana to Florida. Stay tuned.

Tropical Storm Malia forms in the Central Pacific
Tropical Storm Malia formed on Monday morning in the waters several hundred miles west of the Hawaiian Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for central portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski Island. Malia is headed north-northeastwards at 11 mph on a path that will take it midway between Hawaii and Alaska's Aleutian islands late this week.

Malia is the record 6th named storm to form in 2015 in the North Central Pacific (between 140°W and the Date Line.) According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach, prior to 2015, the previous record for named storms in the North Central Pacific for an entire season was four set in 1982. The other named storms that formed in the North Central Pacific in 2015 were Halola, Ela, Iune, Kilo and Loke. This year's record activity has been due to unusually low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures caused by the strong El Niño event underway.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks guys..4.7 in the desert....nasty
The NOLA/Slidell NWS was on the possible Gulf system forming, in last night's disco'


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/

FRONTAL ZONE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RESPONSE. OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AND BECOME STEADY STATE TUESDAY
INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LOWER GULF AS FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO.



MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUMPING TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSTRICTION IN THE NORTH GULF OVER TIME. 24/RR
Thank you gentlemen for the update!
Quoting 5. CaribBoy:




So brown...
From Pat's Comment #3:

FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION

Can someone explain that in layman's terms? I'm guessing something like a low forming along a frontal boundary and acquiring tropical characteristics...
Thanks Messers Masters and Henson. Southern California needs more rain, from somewhere, over the next several weeks to help with deficits.

Just have to wait on the Gulf situation; regardless of what the models are indicating, they cannot get an accurate read on shear in the Gulf this far out and/or potential troffing to dig a system out of the BOC.

Here are current shear levels across the MDR:


Quoting 7. NNYer:

From Pat's Comment #3:

FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION

Can someone explain that in layman's terms? I'm guessing something like a low forming along a frontal boundary and acquiring tropical characteristics...
Old washed-up front finds new career as a tropical storm.
"A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for central portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument..."
There's a mouthful!
Quoting 7. NNYer:

From Pat's Comment #3:

FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION

Can someone explain that in layman's terms? I'm guessing something like a low forming along a frontal boundary and acquiring tropical characteristics...
Try this...Link
Quoting 10. SherwoodSpirit:

"A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for central portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument..."
There's a mouthful!


I bet the British weatherman could pronounce it like he did that Welsh town.

If it were me, "A tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of the Papahan....Pahapa....Papahamunok...eh, Hawaii, you're on your own."
Quoting 12. win1gamegiantsplease:



I bet the British weatherman could pronounce it like he did that Welsh town.

If it were me, "A tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of the Papahan....Pahapa....Papahamunok...eh, Hawaii, you're on your own."
Papa-hana-nua-moku-akea......not so tough...pft
i noted there is a mistake in wikipedia under Tropical Storm Malia

After a week of an inactive period, a tropical disturbance rapidly intensified into Tropical Depression Five-C east of the International Dateline on September 19. On September 21, Sixteen-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Malia.

Link


since when was TD 16E was in the C PAC




all so this part needs too be updated

With the designation of Tropical Storm Loke on August 21 as the fifth named system, the 2015 season surpassed the 1982 season for the most named storms in the basin
Beautiful Aurora From Alaska - By Ian Jones

Can't wait for the overnights to get into the 60's.. this has been the most consistently warm summer that I can recall, no heatwaves just in the 90's most afternoons and in the mid-upper 70's overnight.. Really thankful (even with Thanksgiving being a couple months out) that we have not had to deal with any big swirly's since we've moved here (NWFL). Hope ya'll have an excellent week!
Quoting 15. Patrap:

Beautiful Aurora From Alaska - By Ian Jones


Saw that when we were on Superior....An awesome sight to a S. Florida guy.
potential storm next week may have some juice for it to develop in a good environment.
*
1996 Tropical Storm Josephine:



21. IKE
Latest GFS at 195 hours....

Quoting 17. hydrus:

Saw that when we were on Superior....An awesome sight to a S. Florida guy.


When Grothar and myself were serving in NATO in Late winter early spring of 84', we were in Tromso,Norway and every clear night, I would grab 6 beers and wander off and jus chill and enjoy them.

It was spectacular some nights, absolutely stunning to marvel and wonder at.

Quoting 21. IKE:

Latest GFS at 195 hours....


Still has the massive low south of Greenland too.
Quoting 22. Patrap:



When Grothar and myself were serving in NATO in Winter 84', we were in Tromso,Norway and every clear night, I would grab 6 beers and wander off and jus chill and enjoy them.

It was spectacular some nights, absolutely stunning to marvel and wonder at.


Yep..We were standing on the barge ( all of us ) looking at what appeared to be God hanging giant curtains from heaven...No one said a word...complete silence.
Zeer Interessant

26. IKE
Same location...weaker on this run.
Next name on the list is Joaquin (wah-KEEN).
Noting the pictures below and living in Florida all my life, here are my three night-time bucket list trips before I kick the bucket; a) live viewing the Aurora over a Northern Latitude sky, b) viewing the Milky Way "cloud" in the sky which is not visible from Florida at night, and c) viewing a clear night sky from a nice mountain vantage point (perhaps in Wyoming).

Give me no more than 10 years to pull these three off...............................Preferably in one trip/vacation.
Thanks Doc and Mr Henson!
Quoting 22. Patrap:



When Grothar and myself were serving in NATO in Late winter early spring of 84', we were in Tromso,Norway and every clear night, I would grab 6 beers and wander off and jus chill and enjoy them.

It was spectacular some nights, absolutely stunning to marvel and wonder at.




So that's were you were! Probably Macko! They were spectacular. But having lived there as a youngun, we were used to seeing them all the time. Although I probably didn't see as many as you, because I was working. :):)
Quoting 17. hydrus:

Saw that when we were on Superior....An awesome sight to a S. Florida guy.

lol, I am reminded of the time (the wife is tired of this story lol), my daughter and I were camping at Muskallonge State park in Michigan's UP on Lake Superior, between Whitefish Point and Grand Marais. It was August and the perseid meteor shower was on, everyone had towels and blankets spread on the beach watching the show. There was an Aurora that nite, mostly a greenish glow that would fade and brighten. A newcomer to the beach asked what it was and someone told her it was a used car lot in Canada that had really bright lights. Well, she believed it and starting telling everyone who came down to the beach that it was a used car lot. It was a while before somebody got up the nerve to tell her the truth. I laugh every time I go to that beach. (was there in August)
Quoting 16. JNFlori30A:

Can't wait for the overnights to get into the 60's.. this has been the most consistently warm summer that I can recall, no heatwaves just in the 90's most afternoons and in the mid-upper 70's overnight.. Really thankful (even with Thanksgiving being a couple months out) that we have not had to deal with any big swirly's since we've moved here (NWFL). Hope ya'll have an excellent week!

Well, lows have been in the 30's here in Northern Michigan, already have had a frost or two.
This is our beautiful little city of Tromso in Norway.

Quoting 24. hydrus:

Yep..We were standing on the barge ( all of us ) looking at what appeared to be God hanging giant curtains from heaven...No one said a word...complete silence.

Presque Isle?

CMC Doom.
Quoting 33. Grothar:

This is our beautiful little city of Tromso in Norway.



Nice!!!
Quoting 30. Grothar:



So that's were you were! Probably Macko! They were spectacular. But having lived there as a youngun, we were used to seeing them all the time. Although I probably didn't see as many as you, because I was working. :):)


I had the Macko beer tent sign from our Bivouac and had it one the back of my ALICE pack when we left the USS Raleigh stateside.

I still have it today.
Quoting 34. TroutMadness:


Presque Isle?
Ontonagon, U.P. Michigan.
Quoting 33. Grothar:

This is our beautiful little city of Tromso in Norway.


Very cool...Who knows, some day I may go .
Quoting 35. HurricaneAndre:


CMC Doom.



there no DOOM on the CMC that is this a 995mb low any thing that fourms in the gulf at this tme of year will likey be Subtropical
Quoting 31. TroutMadness:


lol, I am reminded of the time (the wife is tired of this story lol), my daughter and I were camping at Muskallonge State park in Michigan's UP on Lake Superior, between Whitefish Point and Grand Marais. It was August and the perseid meteor shower was on, everyone had towels and blankets spread on the beach watching the show. There was an Aurora that nite, mostly a greenish glow that would fade and brighten. A newcomer to the beach asked what it was and someone told her it was a used car lot in Canada that had really bright lights. Well, she believed it and starting telling everyone who came down to the beach that it was a used car lot. It was a while before somebody got up the nerve to tell her the truth. I laugh every time I go to that beach. (was there in August)
Whitefish Bay...Our little haven when things were rough. Did so many circles in ther I was wobbly..
Quoting 16. JNFlori30A:

Can't wait for the overnights to get into the 60's.. this has been the most consistently warm summer that I can recall, no heatwaves just in the 90's most afternoons and in the mid-upper 70's overnight.. Really thankful (even with Thanksgiving being a couple months out) that we have not had to deal with any big swirly's since we've moved here (NWFL). Hope ya'll have an excellent week!


It will be interesting this winter with a strong el nino if the polar vortex dips way south. We need a average winter with temps this year in the deep south.
Quoting 35. HurricaneAndre:


CMC Doom.
TS and a TD next to florida
Quoting 28. weathermanwannabe:

Noting the pictures below and living in Florida all my life, here are my three night-time bucket list trips before I kick the bucket; a) live viewing the Aurora over a Northern Latitude sky, b) viewing the Milky Way "cloud" in the sky which is not visible from Florida at night, and c) viewing a clear night sky from a nice mountain vantage point (perhaps in Wyoming).

Give me no more than 10 years to pull these three off...............................Preferably in one trip/vacation.


I've done the second and third (at the same time) while hiking in the White Mountains of NH in Summer. I still need to do the third.

You are correct that all three are worthy goals - I have not see and cannot imagine any more sublime, awe-inspiring or humbling vistas.
Upward motion in the MJO, an active monsoon trough, and a front coming down into the Gulf may all be players to getting a tropical low to form in a couple of days.

sorry to see that.....we are all struggling with it this year but you have it worse....
its going to be an arid dry climate in the caribbean for the next few years as the basin goes into hibernation.


Quoting 5. CaribBoy:


Interesting twist in the clouds south of Western Cuba..

Ida is decoupling again, but is heading into an area of upper level winds which should help push the storms back to her center.

Thank You Dynamic Duo, Doesn't look like much rain for here, .10-.25, but we will take whatever is given.... How you doing down there Joe..
Quoting 11. hydrus:

Try this...Link


Thanks Hydrus, a bit over my head, but not too far I think. I also found this: Link

So, from what I've read, looks like setting up the environment to favor tropical development, not necessarily meaning a tropical cyclone must develop. Am I close?
LOW wind shear in the Central Pacific? I must disagree. All of the storms in the CPac this year have had a very difficult time coming together because of wind shear, even while SSTs have been warmer than normal and more than sufficient. Even storms originating in the EPac have been weakened as they came into the CPac area.
Quoting 47. hydrus:

Interesting twist in the clouds south of Western Cuba..



Maybe, but I honestly don't see it in the surface clouds. There is a pronounced trough showing up in the upper wind pattern in that locale. The outflow from EPac Depression 16E plus the strong upper winds associated with a front will shred anything that might get going anyway.
Quoting 42. frank727:



It will be interesting this winter with a strong el nino if the polar vortex dips way south. We need a average winter with temps this year in the deep south.

The polar vortex doesn't normally dip far south during a strong El Nino, at least not that part of it that defines the Arctic air boundary. The usual setup is a stronger than normal low latitude jet coming off the Pacific with the northerly jet staying up in Canada. We shall see how usual this El Nino turns out.
Wassup WU peoples? I see we may have the potential for something to get started in the GOM this weekend.. We shall see I guess. It's been a hectic past 3 weeks and I haven't had time to even pretend to look at tropical weather.

Off topic.. How many here are as impressed as the rest of the college football world (seems to be) with the man child Leonard Fournette? Man my Tigah's are poised to go far this season. This team looks to be better than the 2011 team. I'm just sayin'
Quoting 31. TroutMadness:


lol, I am reminded of the time (the wife is tired of this story lol), my daughter and I were camping at Muskallonge State park in Michigan's UP on Lake Superior, between Whitefish Point and Grand Marais. It was August and the perseid meteor shower was on, everyone had towels and blankets spread on the beach watching the show. There was an Aurora that nite, mostly a greenish glow that would fade and brighten. A newcomer to the beach asked what it was and someone told her it was a used car lot in Canada that had really bright lights. Well, she believed it and starting telling everyone who came down to the beach that it was a used car lot. It was a while before somebody got up the nerve to tell her the truth. I laugh every time I go to that beach. (was there in August)



HaHa! This is a true story! In the 90s I worked at a substance abuse treatment center as a nurse and we would get patients from all around the region. We ( Wilmington NC) had this guy from Canada in the hospital there and we were under a hurricane warning. I always wound up working thru the canes because it kept my nerves at bay. The other nurses were just fine with that. Anyway one of the local guys told the canadian that he was in Raleigh when a cane came thru one time and a mullet hit him in the mouth. Now Raleigh is about 125 miles from here, but the guy from canada believed him until i made him tell the truth.
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:

Ida is decoupling again, but is heading into an area of upper level winds which should help push the storms back to her center.


That's not how it works.
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

That's not how it works.


It never is when I say it, is it?
Quoting 40. Tazmanian:




there no DOOM on the CMC that is this a 995mb low any thing that fourms in the gulf at this tme of year will likey be Subtropical


Subtropical, not likely. GOM waters are more than warm enough to support tropical systems all the way into October. Just take a look at Hurricane Opal in 1995 which hit our area October 4th. Until the GOM waters go below 80 were still at risk for a tropical system.
Quoting 9. SouthTampa:

Old washed-up front finds new career as a tropical storm.
South tampa, you remind me of the cop in Sanford and Son who had to translate everything to the other cop.
Quoting 62. 69Viking:



Subtropical, not likely. GOM waters are more than warm enough to support tropical systems all the way into October. Just take a look at Hurricane Opal in 1995 which hit our area October 4th. Until the GOM waters go below 80 were still at risk for a tropical system.
Quoting 60. FunnelVortex:



It never is when I say it, is it?
I don't know about that.
Quoting 56. BayFog:


The polar vortex doesn't normally dip far south during a strong El Nino, at least not that part of it that defines the Arctic air boundary. The usual setup is a stronger than normal low latitude jet coming off the Pacific with the northerly jet staying up in Canada. We shall see how usual this El Nino turns out.
Blocking high from California to the pole is likely going to put a new variable in the winter equation so to speak...I believe it will happen with the huge warmth outside the ENSO Pacific.
Quoting 63. FOREX:

South tampa, you remind me of the cop in Sanford and Son who had to translate everything to the other cop.
I,m comin Elizabeth...its the big one.
Quoting 62. 69Viking:



Subtropical, not likely. GOM waters are more than warm enough to support tropical systems all the way into October. Just take a look at Hurricane Opal in 1995 which hit our area October 4th. Until the GOM waters go below 80 were still at risk for a tropical system.


A subtropical storm can form over warm water. I think its the baroclinic forces that determine it
Quoting 30. Grothar:



So that's were you were! Probably Macko! They were spectacular. But having lived there as a youngun, we were used to seeing them all the time. Although I probably didn't see as many as you, because I was working. :):)


Pat was working on something else!
Quoting 51. PedleyCA:

Thank You Dynamic Duo, Doesn't look like much rain for here, .10-.25, but we will take whatever is given.... How you doing down there Joe..


They still calling for rain......haven't gotten anything yet. Keeping me hopes up!
Quoting 33. Grothar:

This is our beautiful little city of Tromso in Norway.


Burrrreautiful!


Super El-Nino beginning to take shape. With in the next 2 to 3 weeks we should begin to see values exceed 2.5C in Nino 3.4 as a there is a ongoing WWB around the Dateline that should help increase SST's.

So much for JB's modoki claims on his website lately and the suspected cooling he has been telling everyone has been happening.



WWB in progress


Yep...
Quoting 42. frank727:



It will be interesting this winter with a strong el nino if the polar vortex dips way south. We need a average winter with temps this year in the deep south.
Hope we don't have another harsh one, but not holding my breath...
Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:

Super El-Nino beginning to take shape. With in the next 2 to 3 weeks we should begin to see values exceed 2.5C in Nino 3.4 as a there is a ongoing WWB around the Dateline that should help increase SST's.

So much for JB's modoki claims on his website lately and the suspected cooling he has been telling everyone has been happening.




Very normal looking El nino.
It is looking good that we might surpass the peak values of 1997/1998's Super El-Nino. Funny as JB has been saying this El-Nino isn't that strong yet the CPC has had 2.3C since last week! What a joke!
From Wunderground:

The definition of a subtropical storm, according to the National Hurricane Center in 2005:

A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

In 2011, they proposed changing the definition to:

A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection."


Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/subtropical. asp#xgmbzwkxtZj4kt9o.99
Quoting 75. Gearsts:

Very normal looking El nino.



He has been saying this El-Nino isn't that strong yet in mid September we already have 2.3C values in Nino 3.4. Nino 1&2 jumped from 2C last week to 2.6C this week.
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:

Ida is decoupling again, but is heading into an area of upper level winds which should help push the storms back to her center.


Looks like ida is Naked and Afraid.
As usual this time of the year (after the Sept 10th Atlantic season peak period), the action starts to move to the Western Caribbean/Gulf and the potential numbers start to fall drastically. SST's will be there for a period of time before the really deep cold fronts start to cool off these waters significantly but shear becomes the big ticket item (against any pre-existing disturbance that may form from a frontal passage remnant or Central American monsoon area).
September Hurricane Climatology

October Hurricane Climatology

Peak Of Season
Quoting 74. JNFlori30A:

Hope we don't have another harsh one, but not holding my breath...


The TWC winter forecast maps came out today (or at least I saw them this morning).

They are calling for lower than average temps across the South, down to the GOM coastal areas, and up around the Atlantic coast into the mid-Atlantic.

I don't put much stock in a single forecast this far out.

It appears the jet kinks -- what folks like to call polar vortex -- are going to be one of those things the climate people have warned us about, at least partially due to human-forced warming.

I'm waiting for it to happen again and again so smart people can continue to firm up the hypothesis about AGW and the winter jet pattern. Interesting times.
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:

Ida is decoupling again, but is heading into an area of upper level winds which should help push the storms back to her center.




Erika part two...
Partly cloudy and no rain yet. This weather station about 4 miles from my house.

Weather Conditions for:
Puerta La Cruz, CA. HP015 (HPWREN)
Elev: 2970 ft; Latitude: 33.32; Longitude: -116.68

Current time: Mon, 21 Sep 12:38 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 21 Sep 12:37 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Station Precip Precip Precip Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Pressure Accumulated 6 hour 24 hour Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (inches) (inches) (inches)
21 Sep 12:37 pm PDT 77 59 54 SSW 12G15 909.20 24.24 OK
Quoting 81. ariot:



The TWC winter forecast maps came out today (or at least I saw them this morning).

They are calling for lower than average temps across the South, down to the GOM coastal areas, and up around the Atlantic coast into the mid-Atlantic.

I don't put much stock in a single forecast this far out.

It appears the jet kinks -- what folks like to call polar vortex -- are going to be one of those anomalies the climate people have warned us about, at least partially due to human-forced warming.

I'm waiting for it to happen again and again so smart people can continue to firm up the hypothesis about AGW and the winter jet pattern. Interesting times.


Polar Vortex has got to be one of the most abused weather terms out there.

Take it from the Climate Prediction Center. In addition to colder in the south is also expected to get warmer than normal in the northern part of the country.

This does not look like a polar vortex pattern. Just an average El Ninio.

Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:



He has been saying this El-Nino isn't that strong yet in mid September we already have 2.3C values in Nino 3.4. Nino 1&2 jumped from 2C last week to 2.6C this week.


Hey Scott...Anyway to predict how much ONI will go up at the end of the month? Current is 1.2C, In 97 Event it was 1.4C and took a .3 jump to 1.7C at the end of Sept...What do you think?
a baro low in the gulf. 2015 in a nutshell.
Euro has a never seen before El-Nino Intensity in nearly all regions. This is just crazy to imagine as this model has all regions @ or above 2C come December (3 areas near 3C infact) something that has never happened before.

Nino 3


Nino 3.4


Nino 4


Quoting 86. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hey Scott...Anyway to predict how much ONI will go up at the end of the month? Current is 1.2C, In 97 Event it was 1.4C and took a .3 jump to 1.7C at the end of Sept...What do you think?


We should see a huge jump up as all of September has had values greater than 2C in Nino 3.4.
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

He has been saying this El-Nino isn't that strong yet in mid September we already have 2.3C values in Nino 3.4. Nino 1&2 jumped from 2C last week to 2.6C this week.

I never listen to JB. He's just smart enough to be Trump's running mate. [ ;-)]
Wow...Finally some rain for St. Croix! Puerto Rico AVN satellite shows a robust circulation North of the Islands throwing moisture our way. The total so far is only .50" but other than Erika it is the most robust rainfall we have had in months.
Quoting 90. RickWPB:


I never listen to JB. He's just smart enough to be Trump's running mate. [ ;-)]


He is really searching for straws now to try and get his forecast to pan out from what he advertised a few months ago for this Fall. So far he isn't doing so hot. He also said this El-Nino would peak @ 1.9C and well that was way off. He also said that we are transitioning to a more modoki event which is way off too as Nino 1&2 are higher than Nino 3.4.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 19m19 minutes ago
Update #ElNino 2015 minus 1997 in deep tropics from 120°E to 80°W, -10°S to 10°N
2015 about 0.2°C warmer than 1997.
Well I guess .05 for the month is better than 0 never seen it that bad here.


This looks interesting.
Quoting 13. hydrus:

Papa-hana-nua-moku-akea......not so tough...pft


You didn't say it three times. :)
thank you leftovers of 96 nice fetch setting up for surfers in e cen florida
Everyone have a safe weather afternoon; early bug-out due to high school PTA meeting for the youngest.
The current Conus jet pattern has not yet settled into the typical El Nino split jet pattern; that will come later around November.

Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:

Euro has a never seen before El-Nino Intensity in nearly all regions. This is just crazy to imagine as this model has all regions @ or above 2C come December (3 areas near 3C infact) something that has never happened before.

Nino 3


Nino 3.4


Nino 4





There is no way of knowing just how bad weather conditions will be this winter in the West as as well as in the Southeast- namely Florida. It may turn out that Florida will see more extreme weather events in the Winter and Spring than it saw this hurricane season.
Quoting 54. BayFog:

LOW wind shear in the Central Pacific? I must disagree. All of the storms in the CPac this year have had a very difficult time coming together because of wind shear, even while SSTs have been warmer than normal and more than sufficient. Even storms originating in the EPac have been weakened as they came into the CPac area.

Yeah but normally they don't even make it into the CPAC, shear is just low enough to allow development which is significant
102. 7544
Quoting 95. Terri2003:



This looks interesting.


yep looks like that red blob wants to move east to fl ?
Does anyone think Ida could be undergoing a relocation of her center of circulation? The LLC seems to be losing its structure, and low level clouds appear to be streaming into the persistent mid-level storms to the south. The circulation appears broader. We need an ASCAT.
Quoting 95. Terri2003:



This looks interesting.
What's looks interesting here? You mean the blob?
Quoting 105. hurricanefishfla:

What's looks interesting here? You mean the blob?


What blob? All I see are high clouds
Quoting 102. 7544:



yep looks like that red blob wants to move east to fl ?


I'm interested in the persistent convection down in the western Caribbean.
First mention of the possible low in the GOM...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
424 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THIS TROUGH CUTTING OFF
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/NE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-THU. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LOCALLY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH VORT MAXES
ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. H5 TEMPS WILL COOL
TOO...INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK.
NIGHTS COULD GET ACTIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ADJACENT
WATERS AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS
NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS
WELL WITH A FEW STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

BY LATE THIS WEEK, DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTING
OUT WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND RIDGING BUILDING IN LOCALLY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE CONTINUING
WITH POPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WOULD HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL AREA WEATHER OF COURSE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS LOW INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL. /GREGORIA
What you people don't know about "blobs" sheesh!!!!


Quoting 106. FunnelVortex:



What blob? All I see are high clouds
I mean the little blob moving with high clouds,but I agree that's nothing important.
Quoting 105. hurricanefishfla:

What's looks interesting here? You mean the blob?


Shhh..you cant see a blob before Gro sees it...
Quoting 109. Grothar:

What you people don't know about "blobs" sheesh!!!!





Nice area of convection firing off in that "blob" on visible satellite.
Quoting 110. hurricanefishfla:

I mean the little blob moving with high clouds,but I agree that's nothing important.


You've violated a blog prime directive regarding blobs and blobbettes. 8-)

Please go easy on hurricanefish Gro.
Quoting 109. Grothar:

What you people don't know about "blobs" sheesh!!!!



Maybe you are blobs expert.
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:



He is really searching for straws now to try and get his forecast to pan out from what he advertised a few months ago for this Fall. So far he isn't doing so hot. He also said this El-Nino would peak @ 1.9C and well that was way off. He also said that we are transitioning to a more modoki event which is way off too as Nino 1&2 are higher than Nino 3.4.


Lol, it only took about two years to get the El Nio forecast right.
Quoting 113. rmbjoe1954:



You've violated a blog prime directive regarding blobs and blobbettes. 8-)
All of that just for a blob? Man this blog is really funny.I will stay here,Gro.
Wow, late in September, and still record heatwaves in the northern hemisphere ...

If you want to see the sweat of some vips, lol:
The Emmy Awards 2015: Heatwave makes things too hot to handle

More than 1,200 homes in L.A. County without power after record-breaking heat
LATimes, Sept 21, 2015
More than 1,200 homes throughout Los Angeles County remained without power Monday as record-breaking heat caused widespread outages and system failures, authorities said.
Of the total, 600 were without power because of extreme heat, and another 600 in Manhattan Beach lost electricity because of a downed transformer.
Crews were working Monday to restore power to the homes, according to Southern California Edison.
Record high temperatures were posted Sunday in Long Beach (99 degrees), Woodland Hills (104 degrees), Camarillo (91 degrees) and Bob Hope Airport (104 degrees), according to the National Weather Service. ...


Karachi braves record heatwave this month
By Sameer Mandhro, Published: September 21, 2015
KARACHI: It has been 64 years since the mercury shot to 42.8°C in the month of September in Karachi. Over two dozen people were hospitalised and an elderly man died as the metropolis braved the heatwave this weekend.
The hottest day in September in the city was recorded in 1951. “It was September 30 and the temperature touched 42.8°C,” said Abdul Rasheed, the focal person of the Pakistan Meteorological Department in Karachi.
This Saturday the temperature reached 42.7°C (109F) and reduced to 42.5°C by Sunday. Rasheed said the situation will, more or less, remain the same until Tuesday. “But the mercury will fall below 40°C by Wednesday.”
Rasheed, however, said light rains are expected on Tuesday in eastern Sindh, including Mirpurkhas – where it has already started raining – and Sukkur divisions. “A low pressure in the Arabian Sea caused rain in Lahore and hot weather in Karachi and other parts of Sindh.” ..
Quoting 111. JrWeathermanFL:



Shhh..you cant see a blob before Gro sees it...
I'm sorry I violated Gro's "blobs" policies.
Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:

It is looking good that we might surpass the peak values of 1997/1998's Super El-Nino. Funny as JB has been saying this El-Nino isn't that strong yet the CPC has had 2.3C since last week! What a joke!


It's probably because JB loves to hype northeast weather events whether it be snow storms or hurricanes, which is why he always does his early season doomsday graphic of hurricanes being more likely to impacts the east coast or crippling nor'easters for New England.

El Nino means the northern U.S. is on average warmer and drier than average, and that means typically less northeast weather events to hype on average.
Quoting 101. LargoFl:


oh no keep that thing away from us LOL! Tell the CMC go kick rocks!
Quoting 118. hurricanefishfla:

I'm sorry I violated Gro's "blobs" policies.


Your ban only lasts 5 years don't worry.
Quoting 44. Alan8156:



I've done the second and third (at the same time) while hiking in the White Mountains of NH in Summer. I still need to do the third.

You are correct that all three are worthy goals - I have not see and cannot imagine any more sublime, awe-inspiring or humbling vistas.


Home sweet home!
Here's today's ASCAT of the remains of 96L. GEOS-5 keeps regenerating this a little and brings it back to North Florida and South Georgia on Thursday as a weak low.

Quoting 109. Grothar:

What you people don't know about "blobs" sheesh!!!!



I saw the movie..I cant be fooled..not by blobs..:)
Quoting 66. hydrus:

Blocking high from California to the pole is likely going to put a new variable in the winter equation so to speak...I believe it will happen with the huge warmth outside the ENSO Pacific.

Blocks like that are not unusual during an El Nino. But they're meaningless if a strong low latitude jet undercuts them, as per the usual El Nino. In fact, a block can aid the development of a low latitude jet. During one of the past strong El Ninos (I can't recall which), a split jet out over the Pacific was re-joined just off the California coast, pumping up any storm that came along.
Quoting 100. all4hurricanes:


Yeah but normally they don't even make it into the CPAC, shear is just low enough to allow development which is significant

Perhaps, but I would argue that it's been the warmer SSTs that have favored initial development more.
Blob alert levels: Yellow Alert-blob that may persist the day. Orange Alert-blob that persists day and night. Red Alert-blob that persists multiple days and closes in on invest status.
Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:

It is looking good that we might surpass the peak values of 1997/1998's Super El-Nino. Funny as JB has been saying this El-Nino isn't that strong yet the CPC has had 2.3C since last week! What a joke!


The mid September model averages have the peak just above '97-'98 ONI.




It is still a way to go before surpassing '97-'98. We would need conditions persisting and intensifying for at least two more months. I think an early peak is unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility just by looking at recent historical records. It looks like one happened in 1987, but it is the outlier.
Link
I would not be surprised by anything at this point as current conditions are pretty impressive and even more so using older baselines.


Premature eblobulation.

They make a pill for it.

Quoting 111. JrWeathermanFL:



Shhh..you cant see a blob before Gro sees it...
Quoting 118. hurricanefishfla:

I'm sorry I violated Gro's "blobs" policies.


Your punishment will be you must remain a loyal wundergroundite and make this blog a livelier place with thoughtful posts ( or not so thoughtful).
Large MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) developed with the cyclonic system in the Mediterranean and is headed towards Rhodes and the coast of Turkey where torrential rains are predicted (I've posted about this in the earlier blog). Sat pic of the cloud top temperatures (outstanding in whole Europe right now) below. Good public fb-site in English from a chaser team in Rhodes to follow (for whole Greece as well): "Cyclone of Rhodes". Good luck to them and good night to you!


Click to enlarge. Source.


More recent pic.
133. viman
Quoting 118. hurricanefishfla:

I'm sorry I violated Gro's "blobs" policies.


At least you wasn't "poofed" by Taz :-)
Casi se me olvida.
135. viman
...
This pattern is the result of this strong El-Nino. Just go and look at the models for October and beyond as this is what they look like. With October next week it is very likely the pattern we are seeing is that of El-Nino. Strong blocking high up north with low pressure troughs undercutting to the south.

18Z GFS


Here is the CFSv2 October forecast. The pattern is strikingly similar to what the CFSv2 has been advertising for sometime now.
18Z GFS is having a resurrection of TS Debby of 2012.

Quoting 136. StormTrackerScott:

This pattern is the result of this strong El-Nino. Just go and look at the models for October and beyond as this is what they look like. With October next week it is very likely the pattern we are seeing is that of El-Nino. Strong blocking high up north with low pressure troughs undercutting to the south.

18Z GFS


Here is the CFSv2 October forecast. The pattern is strikingly similar to what the CFSv2 has been advertising for sometime now.
Scott, what is your opinion on the likelihood of the gulf disturbance forming up as the models suggest? I know this is a long way out.
Quoting 138. Sandcat:




I think its possible we get a system but on that's somewhat disorganized due to strong SSW shear. Expect a East weighted system if one does materialize.
Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:



I think its possible we get a system but on that's somewhat disorganized due to strong SSW shear. Expect a East weighted system if one does materialize.
And likely to stay very weak as a depression at best?
Its going to be a fun Fall/Winter across Cali & FL.

Quoting 90. RickWPB:


I never listen to JB. He's just smart enough to be Trump's running mate. [ ;-)]

I gratify my taste for schadenfreude by by following JB on Twitter. He's either headed for a nervous breakdown or working on a publication to be titled "The Theology of Climate Change".
Quoting 142. ACSeattle:


I gratify my taste for schadenfreude by by following JB on Twitter. He's either headed for a nervous breakdown or working on a publication to be titled "The Theology of Climate Change".


JB does nothing but hype. Just about every weather event is the bigest we've ever seen. He's worthless.
Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:



I think its possible we get a system but on that's somewhat disorganized due to strong SSW shear. Expect a East weighted system if one does materialize.
Hey Scott . I agree, wet and windy on the north and east, dry as a bone and a breeze on the west. If not, I cook my crow the same as chicken.
Will heavy rains spread east into Oklahoma and Texas?
It would be cool if Ida broke Ginger's record for the longest a storm stayed above tropical storm strength. Might be the only way to get decent ACE this season.


i see a spin off the coast
There hasn't been much tropical in the Gulf this season. Is one of the reasons El Nino winters are wet and stormy in the southeast that the Gulf is untapped and provides more energy for winter storms?
Some of the models take the Carolina low SW to Florida.
Quoting 90. RickWPB:


I never listen to JB. He's just smart enough to be Trump's running mate. [ ;-)]
And you will believe a certain blogger over one of the better long range weather forecasters, at least JB has a degree in meteorology. I also believe Dr. Maue is in on that forecast, and as far as a Modoki Nino setting up, their could be one with the way the waters are cooling in the 1.2 region and warming in regions 3.4 and 4. As far as your Super Godzilla Nino forecast, not happening this or next year, maybe some time in the future.
153. beell
Ida between a rock and a hard place. ULL to the west, broad trough to the east/northeast.


21Z CIMSS Mid-level shear
Really quite a mutant storm this Ida. She fits in well with the season so far. The last 24 hours the satellite loops have looked like they were running in reverse. Try setting the loop on rock and you can't tell which is forward....freaky.
155. Relix
Will be visiting Central Florida by October 1st. Guess I got great timing!
Funny the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in HNL would name a storm "Malia." The name in the Hawai'ian language means "calm sea."
Quoting 361. FunnelVortex:



And the Titanic too. They knew about the iceberg feild and were warned to remain out of it, but they decided to go into it anyways just to stick it to their corporate rival and gain publicity.

Profits over lives, right?



One of my more despised stories of management ocurred with the Challenger disaster in January 1986 when Morton Thiokol engineers stated concerns about O ring failure in the cold conditions forecast at launch time. Management told the group.

"It's time to take off our engineering hats and put on our management hats"
The engineers were summarily overruled and we know the consequences.
JB is respected among his peers.
Quoting 134. Gearsts:

Casi se me olvida.

Unforgettable George touring the island of Puerto Rico from east to west....
Quoting 149. TheBigBanana:

There hasn't been much tropical in the Gulf this season. Is one of the reasons El Nino winters are wet and stormy in the southeast that the Gulf is untapped and provides more energy for winter storms?


Actually this is a minor term. The primary reason is that the polar front is displaced far south of normal over North America leading to cool conditions and a lot of baroclinicity (deep temperature gradient) over the deep South and Gulf of Mexico. Storms are both stronger and more advanced in their life cycle (fully formed to occluding) over the Gulf whereas normally they are still developing and growing into what will become Northeasters or Ohio or Tennessee Valley storms. This effect was most pronounced in the 1982-3 El Nino, not as much in 1997-98 although the grossly southerly displaced storm track verified then also. The Polar front also becomes much separated from the Arctic front which is displaced abnormally far north leading to warmer conditions in the North and a weaker storm track there.

161. JLPR2
Quoting 134. Gearsts:

Casi se me olvida.



Oh that's right it's Georges's 17th anniversary in PR, I was busy today so I forgot about that.
Ah... our last real hurricane, one of these days we will see another and people wont take it seriously after storms like Bertha and Erika.
Quoting 158. PensacolaDoug:

JB is respected among his peers.

His science was questionable but he was one of the best forecasters of the late 70s classes at Penn State and he did it through dogged hard work.. analyzing a weather map by hand with hand plotting most nights even when the weather was quiet and "boring". I'm a few years his junior and transferred in third year to avoid out of state tuition so I missed any chance to work with him.
m
Quoting 116. hurricanefishfla:

All of that just for a blob? Man this blog is really funny.I will stay here,Gro.


OK. You get a pass on this one. But remember, all of us have a blob with our name on it!
Quoting 152. NativeSun:
the way the waters are cooling in the 1.2 region and warming in regions 3.4 and 4. As far as your Super Godzilla Nino forecast, not happening this or next year, maybe some time in the future.

The thing is region 1&2 is not cooling. As Scott pointed out "Nino 1&2 jumped from 2C last week to 2.6C this week." It will likely continue to climb as a monster kelvin wave's heat anomalies surface and then start migrating west to other regions. Plenty of heat to go around. Add to that the powerful WWB west of the dateline. It will build a KW that can draw heat from a warmer western pacific than 1997. Not to mention all the other huge SSTAs blobs north of 10 degrees. Few people are talking about how those SSTAs will serve to amplify storms on top of the potentially record breaking El Nino regions.
From the NWS NOLA/Slidell office Long term disco this afternoon,


They sound like expectant Fathers in the 50's...
.LONG TERM...

BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE NOT VERY FAR APART WHEN IT COMES TO THE
EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DESCEND DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH
FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY FORM INTO ONE LARGER...BUT STILL FAIRLY
WEAK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVER FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GULF...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH WEAK
TROUGHING IN PLACE ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA IN
PLACE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION TO FORM
EACH DAY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HAVE PLACED ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY TO REFLECT
THIS RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THE DAY...AND THE 60S AND LOWER 70S AT
NIGHT.

THE BIGGEST CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO PRESENT ITSELF
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS SHOW A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
ON WHETHER THIS SOLUTION WILL OCCUR...AND WHAT PATH ANY FEATURE
COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL WARRANT FURTHER
MONITORING AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY...WITH THE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT KEEPING A
RISK OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

Quoting 157. georgevandenberghe:




One of my more despised stories of management ocurred with the Challenger disaster in January 1986 when Morton Thiokol engineers stated concerns about O ring failure in the cold conditions forecast at launch time. Management told the group.

"It's time to take off our engineering hats and put on our management hats"
The engineers were summarily overruled and we know the consequences.






I would plus this 1000 if i could
Quoting 166. K8eCane:



I would plus this 1000 if i could



It had already been cancelled a couple times, i think
Lot's of clouds but only sprinkles at my house.

I suggested this four hours ago and was met with silence, but does anyone think a center relocation is possible with Ida?
Quoting 170. PensacolaBuoy:

I suggested this four hours ago and was met with silence, but does anyone think a center relocation is possible with Ida?

Not sure . I do see this from the 5pm discussion on IDA at the NHC:

Satellite data indicate that the low- and mid-level centers of Ida
have become separated, with the low-level center exposed well to the
northwest of the deep convection. This appears to be the result
of some unanticipated mid-level shear that is occurring below the
typical 200 mb outflow layer.
173. MahFL
Quoting 124. Skyepony:

Here's today's ASCAT of the remains of 96L. GEOS-5 keeps regenerating this a little and brings it back to North Florida ...


Hey that's me.....
Question:

Which is the more accurate model when it comes to predicting tropical systems? The Euro or the GFS?
Quoting 163. Grothar:



OK. You get a pass on this one. But remember, all of us have a blob with our name on it!


Speaking of blob with our name on it, I'm super stoked (probably more than I should be) about one of the names on the Australian list being Caleb. Finally, maybe a storm will be named after me...It better be a Cat. 5 :P

I have relatives with destructive names..Andrew, Monica, Frances, Donna...I can't be a TS
Quoting 174. pureet1948:

Question:

Which is the more accurate model when it comes to predicting tropical systems? The Euro or the GFS?

Google "Best Hurricane Models"
I found this on it. Not sure how true. I believe there are charts you can find on accuracy with a little looking.

"Known as GFS, for Global Forecast System, the U.S. model might sometimes beat ECMWF, but for the most part it doesn't. "The Euro is the king of the global models," said Greg Nordstrom, a meteorologist at Mississippi State University. "
Quoting 153. beell:

Ida between a rock and a hard place. ULL to the west, broad trough to the east/northeast.


21Z CIMSS Mid-level shear


Exactly.. And it looks beyond awful right now.
178. beell
Quoting 170. PensacolaBuoy:

I suggested this four hours ago and was met with silence, but does anyone think a center relocation is possible with Ida?


No response means "i'm just not ready to contemplate that added confusion just when i thought i knew what was happening and it would be far easier to just say no to a center relocation but there is always a chance it could happen and i don't want to be wrong so i just won't say anything".

:)
Quoting 176. Starhopper:


Google "Best Hurricane Models"
I found this on it. Not sure how true. I believe there are charts you can find on accuracy with a little looking.

"Known as GFS, for Global Forecast System, the U.S. model might sometimes beat ECMWF, but for the most part it doesn't. "The Euro is the king of the global models," said Greg Nordstrom, a meteorologist at Mississippi State University. "


I was afraid of that. The GFS and CMC says the future Gulf of Mexico system might make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida, but the EURO says Texas. Can it then be assumed that the Euro is the most likely solution and residents of Texas should begin reviewing their hurricane plans now? Or will it become a powerful hurricane at all?
Quoting 179. pureet1948:



I was afraid of that. The GFS and CMC says the future Gulf of Mexico system might make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida, but the EURO says Texas. Can it then be assumed that the Euro is the most likely solution and residents of Texas should begin reviewing their hurricane plans now? Or will it become a powerful hurricane at all?

No way am I going to field a "should I evacuate" question based on models. Or at all. Not that much of a pro nor would I take on that responsibility. Only way I would is if one was bearing down with no mistake to be made and would be a guess still. Check the "National Hurricane Center" information on that if the storm actually appears.
How many days out is a factor too. The farther the date is away - the higher the error.
182. beell
Quoting 177. Articuno:



Exactly.. And it looks beyond awful right now.


I don't think it's beyond "awful" yet.
;-)
183. MahFL
Quoting 157. georgevandenberghe:




One of my more despised stories of management ocurred with the Challenger disaster in January 1986 when Morton Thiokol engineers stated concerns about O ring failure in the cold conditions forecast at launch time. Management told the group.

"It's time to take off our engineering hats and put on our management hats"
The engineers were summarily overruled and we know the consequences.



My father in law was a QC control engineer at Morton Thiokol , he knew the O rings wern't designed for those temps.
Quoting 174. pureet1948:

Question:

Which is the more accurate model when it comes to predicting tropical systems? The Euro or the GFS?

From last August, see Dr. Masters' "What Model Should I Trust" blog entry:
Link
Quoting 180. Starhopper:


No way am I going to field a "should I evacuate" question based on models. Or at all. Only way I would is if one was bearing down with no mistake to be made. Check the "National Hurricane Center" information on that.
How many days out is a factor too. The farther the date is away - the higher the error.


Euro puts the gulf system off Texas coast on Sept. 30, 2015. Today is Sept. 21, 2015. I take it that makes a difference?
Quoting 184. PensacolaBuoy:


From last August, see Dr. Masters' "What Model Should I Trust" blog entry:
Link


I don't know if I'm reading it right, but he seems to think both GFS and the Euro are equally good.
Quoting 183. MahFL:



My father in law was a QC control engineer at Morton Thiokol , he knew the O rings wern't designed for those temps.


and was shot down i bet if he spoke up
Quoting 185. pureet1948:



Euro puts the gulf system off Texas coast on Sept. 30, 2015. Today is Sept. 21, 2015. I take it that makes a difference?

Look up accuracy 9 days out. Note NHC puts up a 5 day cone.
190. MahFL
Quoting 187. K8eCane:



and was shot down i bet if he spoke up


He was not directly involved with the actual O rings, he was on the solid rocket engines. He also worked on the Apollo main engines, he worked at Stennis Space Center, with a short spell at Vanedenburg. He's now retired, has grey hair and beard and a pony tail, that kind of guy, lol. Also he lost his house in Katrina, and most of his memorabilia. He was also in the US Navy.
Quoting 189. Starhopper:


Look up accuracy 9 days out. Note NHC puts up a 5 day cone.


I see what you mean. Today's forecasters usually have no idea what’s going to happen in the weather beyond three days out.
Quoting 191. pureet1948:



I see what you mean. Today's forecasters usually have no idea whats going to happen in the weather beyond three days out.

Well, sometimes it's clear cut, at times the unexpected happens. Like the wind shear on IDA today(NHC Ida discussion). Keep an eye is all for now. It's not even appeared yet. Could be possible, might not happen.

Here is a nice list of models to research with other info for yah:
Link

Bb later
Ps Never hurts to prepare a little. Early. The N.H.C. will tell when "plans should be rushed to completion" that would
be boarding windows etc.

I am trying to gain a better understanding of ULLs and their relationship to Tropical Storms like Ida. I know that ULLs can sometimes enhance the circ of a tropical storm, and that sometimes a cold core ULL can become a tropical storm itself. I know there are no short answers to this question of how they relate to each other and the dynamics of their interactions, but I would like to understand it a little better if anyone has a good way to explain it to someone who is not trained in meteorology. I know that the presence of the ULL to Ida's West is preventing further movement Westward, but is there also a possibility that Ida could become stronger due to the influence of the ULL? Fascinating stuff....
He's now retired, has grey hair and beard and a pony tail, that kind of guy, lol.

WTH is that supposed to mean? We can't all be sloppy, fat, greasy-haired pimply-faced drunks, sitting at a bar, wearing Hawaiian shirts.

197. txjac
Quoting 185. pureet1948:



Euro puts the gulf system off Texas coast on Sept. 30, 2015. Today is Sept. 21, 2015. I take it that makes a difference?


Pureet, I assume that you prepare every year for the possibility of a hurricane? Have all the stuff, batteries, flashlights, canned food, water, etc? I'm in Houston ...as I think that you are? Right now I'm just sitting back and watching ...there will be plenty of time to know if anything would come this way ....models this far out just cant be trusted ...they are just saying "hey, look at me ...might be visiting ...keep in touch"
As long as you have done your preparations you should be good ...
Quoting 186. pureet1948:



I don't know if I'm reading it right, but he seems to think both GFS and the Euro are equally good.

I'm glad we were able to clear that up for you. And now you know why the the blog is in a constant state of chaos and dissent!
Quoting 194. Grothar:




Hmm. None of those arrows point that system at Texas. Interesting. Good show, Grothar.
Niala trying to pull it together southeast of Hawaii. Looks like it's choking on dry air for the moment, but there's definitely rotation. Maybe something will blossom overnight.
It would be rare for a system to go to Texas this late in the season.
Quoting 190. MahFL:



He was not directly involved with the actual O rings, he was on the solid rocket engines. He also worked on the Apollo main engines, he worked at Stennis Space Center, with a short spell at Vanedenburg. He's now retired, has grey hair and beard and a pony tail, that kind of guy, lol. Also he lost his house in Katrina, and most of his memorabilia. He was also in the US Navy.


I love "that kind of guy"
Hes a retired rocket scientist. Now how much more interesting can you get?
Quoting 196. Grothar:




What does this mean?
Quoting 164. VibrantPlanet:


The thing is region 1&2 is not cooling. As Scott pointed out "Nino 1&2 jumped from 2C last week to 2.6C this week." It will likely continue to climb as a monster kelvin wave's heat anomalies surface and then start migrating west to other regions. Plenty of heat to go around. Add to that the powerful WWB west of the dateline. It will build a KW that can draw heat from a warmer western pacific than 1997. Not to mention all the other huge SSTAs blobs north of 10 degrees. Few people are talking about how those SSTAs will serve to amplify storms on top of the potentially record breaking El Nino regions.


Quoting 152. NativeSun:

And you will believe a certain blogger over one of the better long range weather forecasters, at least JB has a degree in meteorology. I also believe Dr. Maue is in on that forecast, and as far as a Modoki Nino setting up, their could be one with the way the waters are cooling in the 1.2 region and warming in regions 3.4 and 4. As far as your Super Godzilla Nino forecast, not happening this or next year, maybe some time in the future.


We are already on the cusp of Super El-Nino as values are beginning to near the 2.5C criteria. JB for a lack of better words is trying to find something to back is 1.9C Nino peak and modoki in nature. JB's post this past weekend was irresponsible if you ask me. To go out and say this ENSO isn't that strong is just absurd.


It's the peak of hurricane season, we have a named storm in the Atlantic to track, there is a GOM threat, and nobody is on the blog. Everyone must be banned.
Quoting 196. Grothar:



How accurate is this and if the chances are so high 0-48 hours why is there no x on nhc
Quoting 194. Grothar:




Reminds me of Sandy as in it forms in the Carribean and goes due northward.
June-Sep 2016 el Nino forecast

Quoting 201. gulfbreeze:

It would be rare for a system to go to Texas this late in the season.


True. The only one on record was Hurricane Jerry in 1989. But that was a nonevent as far as storms go.
Quoting 158. PensacolaDoug:
JB is respected among his peers.


I find it hard to believe that any of his peers within the NHC, AMS, and all other professional atmospheric scientists can maintain any respect for JB, especially after all of his nearly continuous and highly self-serving criticism of them in the public domain.

His lack of professionalism towards them takes away any serious chances of him ever being respected by his peers.
Quoting 205. PensacolaBuoy:

It's the peak of hurricane season, we have a named storm in the Atlantic to track, there is a GOM threat, and nobody is on the blog. Everyone must be banned.

I'm kind of at the "bring on winter" stage now. Watching tropical storms get ripped to pieces is only interesting so many times, lol.



Still always watching though... In fact, we can watch three cyclones ripped to pieces at once tonight. After Ida we have Malia.



And then 21W (although this one may have some longer term promise).




Sun crosses the line tomorrow, it is possible to get a powerhouse or 2 out of the SW Caribbean
Quoting 206. Austin72893:


How accurate is this and if the chances are so high 0-48 hours why is there no x on nhc
It has been almost wholly inaccurate. It's an experimental product to begin with, and it's badly skewed this year due to high SST's. You can see all the compnents of the model here. You'll see that the SST's are so high that it only takes an area of even slightly lower pressure before this model shows some percentage chance of TC formation. For example, the green area off the east coast is due the remnants of 96L's lower pressure and anomalously high SST's. Even then, the model is really showing the chance of TC formation within 500 kilometers of those dots, not the location of the dots themselves. I have yet to find any verification data for this model, but it has to be pretty poor. It's a popular graphic here because it almost always shows the chance for a TC forming somewhere in the Atlantic. As you say, any chance of a TC forming in the next 48 hours would already be on the surface charts and the NHC would have at least a yellow X. I use those tools rather than an experimental product which has no verification data and appears to be wrong much more often than right.
Quoting 206. Austin72893:


How accurate is this and if the chances are so high 0-48 hours why is there no x on nhc


It is quite accurate at times. But, like any other model, it sometimes overdoes a system. It is just a tool for possible cyclogenesis. Sometimes it has a strong system, and the next run it drops it. I just use it as a reference for any possible development and then I look at other models for consistency.
Quoting 213. sar2401:

It has been almost wholly inaccurate. It's an experimental product to begin with, and it's badly skewed this year due to high SST's. You can see all the compnents of the model here. You'll see that the SST's are so high that it only takes an area of even slightly lower pressure before this model shows some percentage chance of TC formation. For example, the green area off the east coast is due the remnants of 96L's lower pressure and anomalously high SST's. Even then, the model is really showing the chance of TC formation within 500 kilometers of those dots, not the location of the dots themselves. I have yet to find any verification data for this model, but it has to be pretty poor. It's a popular graphic here because it almost always shows the chance for a TC forming somewhere in the Atlantic. As you say, any chance of a TC forming in the next 48 hours would already be on the surface charts and the NHC would have at least a yellow X. I use those tools rather than an experimental product which has no verification data and appears to be wrong much more often than right.



Thank you because I've seen these all year and they have yet to produce what they put out I'm in Florida so seeing that gets my hopes up and it's false hopes ha
Quoting 207. FunnelVortex:



Reminds me of Sandy as in it forms in the Carribean and goes due northward.


See post 213
Oh, and one more thing. Another reason sar doesn't like this model, is that I post it.

Good night everyone.

Quoting 218. Grothar:

Oh, and one more thing. Another reason sar doesn't like this model, is that I post it.

Good night everyone.




Nite Gro! I was worried you were missing your bedtime :-P
Quoting 205. PensacolaBuoy:

It's the peak of hurricane season, we have a named storm in the Atlantic to track, there is a GOM threat, and nobody is on the blog. Everyone must be banned.
We have a named storm that's barely surviving, has a much decreased chance of becoming a hurricane, and an increased chance it may not be a named storm at all in the next 2-3 days. The models are showing some chance of something forming in the SW Caribbean or BOC over the next 7-10 days but it's certainly not a threat at this point. The SPC forecast for the CONUS is about as quiet as it's been since early spring. No more gutter crushing storms in Florida or anywhere else except for some flooding in the deserts of the Southwest. The weather is about as nominal as you can get for any September 21. The fact we're over 200 posts in about eleven hours is actually pretty good considering the paucity of weather news in most of the US.
Quoting 220. sar2401:

We have a named storm that's barely surviving, has a much decreased chance of becoming a hurricane, and an increased chance it may not be a named storm at all in the next 2-3 days. The models are showing some chance of something forming in the SW Caribbean or BOC over the next 7-10 days but it's certainly not a threat at this point. The SPC forecast for the CONUS is about as quiet as it's been since early spring. No more gutter crushing storms in Florida or anywhere else except for some flooding in the deserts of the Southwest. The weather is about as nominal as you can get for any September 21. The fact we're over 200 posts in about eleven hours is actually pretty good considering the paucity of weather news in most of the US.



SIGH
Why are we here and not on You Tube?
L8er G8ers


Quoting 218. Grothar:

Oh, and one more thing. Another reason sar doesn't like this model, is that I post it.

Good night everyone.


I think I stated pretty clearly why I have no confidence in this model. You are not the only one that posts it, and that fact you do neither makes it a better or worse model. Good night to you as well.
Quoting 221. K8eCane:




SIGH
Why are we here and not on You Tube?
L8er G8ers



Hope springs eternal, Katie. Who knows, some sneaker storm could spring up at any moment...or so we hope. :-) Good night as well, G8er.
For me (in the FLKeys) time once again to look less toward the Cape Verde Isles and turn to the south. Looks nice and disorganized there. No blobs threatening me at this time (are the Gro patrol about to attack for using that word ;>))

- take care Gro from a rare commentator ...

I like it quiet. From the NWS Key West history on this date

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1948...A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MADE ITS INITIAL UNITED STATES
LANDFALL NEAR SUGARLOAF KEY. THE WIND SPEED AT BOCA CHICA REACHED
122 MILES PER HOUR...BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER WAS BLOWN AWAY. A 5 FOOT
STORM TIDE WAS OBSERVED AT TAVERNIER. 4.53 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN
KEY WEST...SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 67 YEARS
LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
Quoting 215. Austin72893:



Thank you because I've seen these all year and they have yet to produce what they put out I'm in Florida so seeing that gets my hopes up and it's false hopes ha
The fact it only goes out to 48 hours really reduces whatever other usefulness it might have now. The model was first begun in the early 2000's in an attempt to improve the accuracy of the GFS, which was missing a fair number of genesis storms in that period. Since then, the GFS and other models have improved immensely, and the chances of any model completely missing a TC forming in the next 1-2 days has sunk to the vanishing point.
Quoting 224. docrod:

For me (in the FLKeys) time once again to look less toward the Cape Verde Isles and turn to the south. Looks nice and disorganized there. No blobs threatening me at this time (are the Gro patrol about to attack for using that word ;>))

- take care Gro from a rare commentator ...

I like it quiet. From the NWS Key West history on this date

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1948...A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MADE ITS INITIAL UNITED STATES
LANDFALL NEAR SUGARLOAF KEY. THE WIND SPEED AT BOCA CHICA REACHED
122 MILES PER HOUR...BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER WAS BLOWN AWAY. A 5 FOOT
STORM TIDE WAS OBSERVED AT TAVERNIER. 4.53 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN
KEY WEST...SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 67 YEARS
LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
Maybe it's because of the changing climate, but 4.53" of rain in a 24 hour period from a cat 3 would probably be on the low side today. Look at what Bob did earlier this year, and it was never more than a TS. Things like this, even disregarding all the scientific work that's been done on climate change, really convince me things have changed today compared to when I was a whippersnapper.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 15h15 hours ago

The Atl has been hurricane-free since 9/2. 9/2-9/20 has only been hurricane-free 4 times since 1950 (56, 62, 87, 94)
Quoting 212. stormpetrol:

Sun crosses the line tomorrow, it is possible to get a powerhouse or 2 out of the SW Caribbean
Hard to believe that Autumn is already here. Maybe it will finally mean some cooler temperatures and more rain for as as we get toward winter.
Quoting 193. congaline:

I am trying to gain a better understanding of ULLs and their relationship to Tropical Storms like Ida. I know that ULLs can sometimes enhance the circ of a tropical storm, and that sometimes a cold core ULL can become a tropical storm itself. I know there are no short answers to this question of how they relate to each other and the dynamics of their interactions, but I would like to understand it a little better if anyone has a good way to explain it to someone who is not trained in meteorology. I know that the presence of the ULL to Ida's West is preventing further movement Westward, but is there also a possibility that Ida could become stronger due to the influence of the ULL? Fascinating stuff....

An upper level low near a tropical storm does more to turn it in the direction of the ULL than either strengthen or weaken it. Storms almost always want to follow a path to lower pressure to survive. A trough can sometimes increase baroclinic forcing if it goes over a weak storm like Ida, which is why the ECMWF thinks Ida may at least intensify, while the GFS thinks the storm can only intensify if it escapes the effects of the trough. A ULAC (Upper Level Anticyclone) directly over a storm does act to generally strengthen a TC, so maybe that's what you are thinking of of rather than an ULL.
Quoting 186. pureet1948:



I don't know if I'm reading it right, but he seems to think both GFS and the Euro are equally good.
What he said was "The best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second." These two are the best and most consistent models we have today. They were about equal in 2013, but each will do somewhat better in some years than others. The most important thing is to pay attention to them at about seven days. If they are both forecasting a storm in about the same place, of about the same pressure, and at about the same time period, time to sit up and pay attention. The more they don't agree, the more likely that one or the other may be correct , or neither may be. We only know once the time period shortens, Also note what he wrote about the CMC. Its performance has only gotten worse over the last two years. If the CMC is forecasting a storm and the other two major models aren't, it's a pretty safe bet the CMC has a high probability being the one that's wrong.
Quoting 205. PensacolaBuoy:

It's the peak of hurricane season, we have a named storm in the Atlantic to track, there is a GOM threat, and nobody is on the blog. Everyone must be banned.
Perhaps this will explain.
Quoting 210. SLINKY:



I find it hard to believe that any of his peers within the NHC, AMS, and all other professional atmospheric scientists can maintain any respect for JB, especially after all of his nearly continuous and highly self-serving criticism of them in the public domain.

His serious lack of professionalism towards them takes away any chances of him ever being respected by his peers.

The sad thing is JB has shown himself to be a pretty good synoptic forecaster over the years, and he's picked up on some systems that weren't being done so well by other forecasters. As you say, though, his tendency o go off on tangents, especially about climate change and the various agencies he doesn't like tends to elicit a visceral reaction from people that obscures when he's actually right about the weather.
Flooding rain here in ne dade. Luckily it's after midnight but still, it's ridiculous how much has fallen in such little time.
Re: Joe Bastardi and peers, this quote is from Marshall Shepherd's current wublog titled "Marshall Shepherd's current wublog, titled "Bastardi's Secrets of Weather Forecasting." Reference is to this past Sunday TWC "WeatherGeeks" show:

"One thing that most people agree on, Joe's passion for meteorology is undeniable. For this reason, we invited him to Weather Geeks. In fact, we had so many things that we wanted to cover with Joe that we did two shows with him.

"Yes, Joe Bastardi, Chief Meteorologist at Weather Bell Analytics, is my guest on Sunday. In this show, I query Joe on his weather forecasting philosophy, particularly his long range approaches and use of historical analogs. Along the way, we get into wide-ranging discussions: the current El Nino, why we shouldn't turn our eyes away from the Atlantic hurricane basin the next few weeks, and what he thinks is in store for the United States this winter."
Quoting 164. VibrantPlanet:


The thing is region 1&2 is not cooling. As Scott pointed out "Nino 1&2 jumped from 2C last week to 2.6C this week." It will likely continue to climb as a monster kelvin wave's heat anomalies surface and then start migrating west to other regions. Plenty of heat to go around. Add to that the powerful WWB west of the dateline. It will build a KW that can draw heat from a warmer western pacific than 1997. Not to mention all the other huge SSTAs blobs north of 10 degrees. Few people are talking about how those SSTAs will serve to amplify storms on top of the potentially record breaking El Nino regions.


Kelvin waves only propagate East. When they encounter a barrier and reflect, they reflect back as Rossby waves.

Quoting 196. Grothar:


Quoting 203. FunnelVortex:



What does this mean?
Seven green monsters, two with large attractive eyes, will be lurking; however, one will likely be subdued by Central America, and Cuba can maybe put a handle on two others, leaving only four possibles.
:)
Quoting 201. gulfbreeze:

It would be rare for a system to go to Texas this late in the season.

We still sweat as they have passed by in mid to late September. We evacuated for hurricane Rita in 2005. At the time it was not looking good for the Texas coast.
Has to be one of the most consistently modeled storms of year. 156 hrs.



When is the next run of the Euro due?
Quoting 238. marynell:


We still sweat as they have passed by in mid to late September. We evacuated for hurricane Rita in 2005. At the time it was not looking good for the Texas coast.


Yeah, I think we're going to have a powerhouse storm slam into SE Texas next week. Trust the Euro to single Houston out for the honor!
Late night weather check. The tropical outlook looks to not deviate. IDA? expected a little more from her but thats not saying much well see she may be a surviver . I would not bet against a Gomx system being a carbon copy of every other hot mess that we seen in this area for the last several months. Is it winter yet ...... el nino looking potent.
Quoting 237. Barefootontherocks:

Seven green monsters, two with large attractive eyes, will be lurking; however, one will likely be subdued by Central America, and Cuba can maybe put a handle on two others, leaving only four possibles.
:)


It means its headed right back to FL again LOL
Quoting 196. Grothar:




Dont look now FL LOL
Quoting 242. lopab2783:

Late night weather check. The tropical outlook looks to not deviate. IDA? expected a little more from her but thats not saying much well see she may be a surviver . I would not bet against a Gomx system being a carbon copy of every other hot mess that we seen in this area for the last several months. Is it winter yet ...... el nino looking potent.


Uh, what?
Just did my 95th blog post of the season. I discuss the absolute latest with Ida, but there are two other areas of interest to watch much closer to home:

1. The "blob" currently offshore of the Carolinas, looks like its starting to spin up a bit and I think it has a decent chance of becoming Joaquin while moving into South Carolina or Georgia over the next couple of days.

2. The southern Gulf of Mexico development, also mentioned by Dr. Masters. Interestingly from what I've gathered, this development potential is somewhat tied to 16-E and the shortwave upper trough offshore of California that steered 16-E into Mexico.
Quoting 163. Grothar:



OK. You get a pass on this one. But remember, all of us have a blob with our name on it!


There will be blob named Rookie?
amusing wording from latest Wilmington NC NWS discussion

SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN DARLINGTON COUNTY...BUT MOST OF IT FELL
OVER SWAMPLAND SO THERE WERE NO IMPACTS.
A Busted Forecast for NWS San Diego. I thought last night there could be issues with the forecast of heavy rains for Soo Cal. The ULL in question had a mind of it's own and then I believe it was 91E decided all by itself to become a TD # 16E, halfway up the Baja Peninsula when not predicted to do so. Highest rain totals were 0.01, so basically no rain........Mother nature has a mind of her own.......regardless of what "the models" forecast. Still a chance for a boomer here in the mountains tomorrow. :)
Quoting 247. NCHurricane2009:

Just did my 95th blog post of the season. I discuss the absolute latest with Ida, but there are two other areas of interest to watch much closer to home:

1. The "blob" currently offshore of the Carolinas, looks like its starting to spin up a bit and I think it has a decent chance of becoming Joaquin while moving into South Carolina or Georgia over the next couple of days.

2. The southern Gulf of Mexico development, also mentioned by Dr. Masters. Interestingly from what I've gathered, this development potential is somewhat tied to 16-E and the shortwave upper trough offshore of California that steered 16-E into Mexico.

How? What does that mean for Texas, if so?
Quoting 251. pureet1948:


How? What does that mean for Texas, if so?

Basically upper trough offshore of So-Cal will slide eastward across Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico as it amplifies into a cut-off upper vortex. Divergence on the east side of the forecast upper vortex will help drop surface pressures in the southern Gulf of Mexico...perhaps leading to a tropical disturbance. If this upper wind scenario indeed evolves as currently forecast...usually the cut-off upper vortex keeps the system on a northward track (away from Texas) into the central Gulf coast or Florida panhandle kind of like our early-season June type of tropical storms.
Quoting 252. NCHurricane2009:


Basically upper trough offshore of So-Cal will slide eastward across Texas and into the western Gulf of Mexico as it amplifies into a cut-off upper vortex. Divergence on the east side of the forecast upper vortex will help drop surface pressures in the southern Gulf of Mexico...perhaps leading to a tropical disturbance. If this upper wind scenario indeed evolves as currently forecast...usually the cut-off upper vortex keeps the system on a northward track (away from Texas) into the central Gulf coast or Florida panhandle kind of like our early-season June type of tropical storms.


Thanks. Too bad the Euro doesn't agree with you, though.
Quoting 253. pureet1948:



Thanks. Too bad the Euro doesn't agree with you, though.


1) GFS has been pretty consistent on a weak system heading towards the Panhandle on the 12Z, 18Z and now 0Z runs. The ensembles has quite a few members that are stronger, but I believe the ensemble resolution upgrade hasn't happened yet (early October, IIRC), or instead of half the effective horizontal grid resolution of the operational, one quarter the resolution. But even the ensembles are generally towards Florida.

2) While Jerry and the Freeport hurricane are notable exceptions, and Rita came within about ten miles, climatology argues against TC landfalls in Texas after the Equinox. And the Euro had a lot of run to run variation with what became 94L, the GFS was more consistent and closer to the correct solution of a weak low forming near the coast and moving inland before substantial development


**BONUS**

OK, it is the CMC, but check out how close to SNE the Canadian comes with a hurricane in a week.
Quoting 253. pureet1948:



Thanks. Too bad the Euro doesn't agree with you, though.

The GFS on the other hand does show a more eastward track than Euro. Usually a scenario like this tends to lead to a northward tracking storm in the central Gulf and not western Gulf.

But considering that this forecast depends entirely on upper-level disturbances that have not even yet made it to North America, maybe the current Euro forecast will come true (if the cut-off upper vortex develops further west over northern Mexico). Maybe nothing develops at all if the upper trough never amplfies into an upper vortex (in which case shear would become too high for development). I remember we were waiting for something possible in the western Gulf of Mexico about two weeks ago, but in the end no cut-off upper vortex really developed and we only had an Invest (94-L) that was under too much shear to develop.

So its not really possible to know the specifics a week out, especially when the forecast is dependent on fast moving upper-level disturbances that haven't yet made it to North America. But being aware and staying tuned is a good thing...
Quoting 255. NCHurricane2009:


The GFS on the other hand does show a more eastward track than Euro. Usually a scenario like this tends to lead to a northward tracking storm in the central Gulf and not western Gulf.

But considering that this forecast depends entirely on upper-level disturbances that have not even yet made it to North America, maybe the current Euro forecast will come true (if the cut-off upper vortex develops further west over northern Mexico). Maybe nothing develops at all if the upper trough never amplfies into an upper vortex (in which case shear would become too high for development). I remember we were waiting for something possible in the western Gulf of Mexico about two weeks ago, but in the end no cut-off upper vortex really developed and we only had an Invest (94-L) that was under too much shear to develop.

So its not really possible to know the specifics a week out, especially when the forecast is dependent on fast moving upper-level disturbances that haven't yet made it to North America. But being aware and staying tuned is a good thing...


Is an Alicia-type storm likely if Euro is right?
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 3h3 hours ago

#Hurricane #Rita pressure reached historic min between 0z-6z Sep 22 2005. How it compares.

Quoting 209. pureet1948:



True. The only one on record was Hurricane Jerry in 1989. But that was a nonevent as far as storms go.
Yep. it was tiny...

Alicia was a TC of non-tropical origin, (from an old frontal trough and associated mid level feature) that stalled over the Gulf in mid-August, and, IIRC, at 1014 mb at time of classification as a tropical depression, set the Atlantic Basin (the world?) record for the highest pressure ever in a tropical cyclone.

Other than the Euro's against post-Equinox climatology landfall in Texas, not a thing common with a tropical system from the deep tropics and TC that formed from a mid-latitude baroclinic system.

BTW, if the Euro behaves like it did pre-94L, the 0Z solution will be notably different than the 12Z solution. King Euro is dead, long live the king...
Unnamed Freeport storm of October 4, 1949, formed in the Pacific, crossed into the Gulf. Like Hurricane Ike, just missed being a major. Hurricanes in Texas post-Equinox aren't impossible, just super extremely unlikely.

I was in Dallas for the TX-OU football game for Jerry, my understanding, people who didn't know from TV or radio in Western Harris County did not know Hurricane Jerry was making landfall, it was that lopsided. As minor as a Cat 1 hurricane can actually be.
Quoting 256. pureet1948:



Is an Alicia-type storm likely if Euro is right?

Hmmm...maybe more something like Hermine in 2010? Unfortunately a week out too hard to say for sure, but usually with an upper vortex being involved its possible that the upper vortex suppresses part of the circulation or induces some shear such that you usually don't get a major storm.
Quoting 262. NCHurricane2009:


Hmmm...maybe more something like Hermine in 2010? Unfortunately a week out too hard to say for sure, but usually with an upper vortex being involved its possible that the upper vortex suppresses part of the circulation or induces some shear such that you usually don't get a major storm.


Good to know. Hermine didn't hurt anybody, I don't think.
Quoting 257. AtHomeInTX:

Ian Livingston %u200F@islivingston 3h3 hours ago

#Hurricane #Rita pressure reached historic min between 0z-6z Sep 22 2005. How it compares.




Wow that chart is amazing. Never seen something like that. Almost like a hitters chart as to how well they can hit pitches in different parts of the strike zone. Rita was after Katrina and wow we all remember that year. Following all those storms on this blog. That was the year that really inspired to further my knowledge in meteorology and climatology. Thank Goodness Rita weakened!! I wish they had Katrina on there, all those are sub 900's though. Katrina was 902 or 904? And man, I didn't know the Labor Day hurricane made it down to 892! Imagine getting caught off guard by that way back in 1935. And Allen being the first storm of the season, in the gulf region at 899, sheesh, first storm, how did that happen. Talk about another superstorm anamoly. These big storms have a way of saying I'm going to do what I want and that's what's going to happen. And then Wilma. Wow I remember All of us on this blog following her, almost in November!! Imagine if she had formed as a November storm! What a 2005 season!! She at the time of her rapid intensification where her eye became almost microscopic, was under 20-30 knots of shear. Almost 40. Yet those lady named storms that year had their way and she became quite strong at 882!! Here's to all those in these cycles paths. Unreal! And we had Dennis who was a cat 4 earlier that year in the gulf as well. I'm sure Patrap knows all of this and is well aware of these stats I am posting haha. And to think we made it all the way to Zeta.

Great info all I appreciate all of the discussions and sharing of knowledge Cheers!!
It was pouring over that way. I drove back from work through a piece of it. By the time it got to Florence it was significantly weaker. Slow mover. We got some very beneficial rain however.

Quoting 249. K8eCane:

amusing wording from latest Wilmington NC NWS discussion

SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN DARLINGTON COUNTY...BUT MOST OF IT FELL
OVER SWAMPLAND SO THERE WERE NO IMPACTS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015

...IDA CHANGES DIRECTION...
...NOW MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 48.6 West. Ida has
changed direction and is now moving toward the east-southeast near
5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow eastward or east-southeastward
motion is expected today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Good morning over there. Weather reporter Andreas Stidl (from Austria with an appropriate accent) from the German weather site wetteronline.de obviously was vacationing in Florida earlier when the remnants of Grace hit. He has done a nice video with a compilation of his experiences of tropical severe weather which was just published in order to show real weather action to us Germans. Enjoy, lol:

ex 96 kinda ex grace making a bit of a comeback. it will get another number if it becomes an invest. true???
272. MahFL
Quoting 271. islander101010:

ex 96 kinda ex grace making a bit of a comeback. it will get another number if it becomes an invest. true???


I think it's 97L.
models for the upcoming gulf system? they are backing off on the time line.
97L...

276. MahFL
Quoting 274. islander101010:

models for the upcoming gulf system? they are backing off on the time line.


They always do.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located more than 900 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

1. A large non-tropical low pressure system located about 250 miles
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the center.
Although upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development, this system could possibly acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
invest 97L
Quoting 277. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located more than 900 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

1. A large non-tropical low pressure system located about 250 miles
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the center.
Although upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development, this system could possibly acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
invest 97L


Always ALWAYS trust these guys....but im looking at satellite etc and im sitting up and paying attention more so than last week when nothing was there. Even if non tropical, it looks pretty impressive for a thunderstorm
Quoting 278. K8eCane:



Always ALWAYS trust these guys....but im looking at satellite etc and im sitting up and paying attention more so than last week when nothing was there. Even if non tropical, it looks pretty impressive for a thunderstorm



Tropical Storm IDA winds 45 mph!! wind shear stil hitting her!!
286. beell
Quoting 281. hurricanes2018:




Tropical Storm IDA winds 45 mph!! wind shear stil hitting her!!



Regarding the shear-from Sunday morning:

Quoting 299. beell:



Ida may just end up between a rock and a hard place with a upper level low to the west and the base of a broad upper trough to the northeast.


09/20 12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-valid @ 36 hrs
Quoting 223. sar2401:

Hope springs eternal, Katie. Who knows, some sneaker storm could spring up at any moment...or so we hope. :-) Good night as well, G8er.


well whatta ya know. one did. 97L
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located a little more than 900 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

A non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
marginally conducive for development, and this system could possibly
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of
days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Additional information on this low pressure system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHFSAT1, WMO Header FXNT01 KWBC, and available on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .
Quoting 283. ncstorm:



Being that I've NEVER contacted NOAA I would say no but I can tell you that some on here are tired of hearing you come on here EVERY season and cry constantly about that we should only pay attention to model runs out to 72 or 120 hours (depending which ever one suits your "forecast")..

Now Go back to work at your fictional Internet NWS agency LOL..

Believe me..you don't want this, not before your first cup of coffee..



Mornin NC..you know how too stomp them onions hard...lol
Quoting 288. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located a little more than 900 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

A non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are
marginally conducive for development, and this system could possibly
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of
days while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Additional information on this low pressure system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHFSAT1, WMO Header FXNT01 KWBC, and available on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .


even if its a thunderstorm and non tropical, i dont want it to come over this way off the ocean
Thats of course if the BLOGSENSE is ok if i WATCH it
Quoting 285. K8eCane:



Some on here seem so bothered by the fact that others find enjoyment in a weather blog. And they seem to want to say anything to make it not so. But these are the type of people that no one likes to be around so....
Yep..And take it from someone who knows, there are plenty of them. Unfortunately, good people usually find out too late. by then the damage is done.
Quoting 291. hydrus:

Yep..And take it from someone who knows, there are plenty of them. Unfortunately, good people usually find out too late. by then the damage is done.



Thats when you go into damage control, pick up the pieces and move on. Hopefully to become better than you ever were!
Quoting 115. Bucsboltsfan:



Lol, it only took about two years to get the El Ni�o forecast right.
Hi all, this does look like a type of Modoki Nino setting up with warmer waters in the 3.4 and 4 regions and cooler waters in the 1.2 region. I will still go with JB and Dr. Maue on their Nino forecast over a blogger on a weather site . At least they both have degrees in meteorology and one of them has a PHD in Meteorology. Lets see what happens going foreword as I don't see this turning into a Super Godzilla Nino as some on here have been forecasting for a very long time. If this turns out to only be a Strong Nino, will this have an effect on the severe weather for the Southeast and Florida?
Quoting 292. K8eCane:




Thats when you go into damage control, pick up the pieces and move on. Hopefully to become better than you ever were!
Indeed. improve your environment whenever possible, adjust whenever necessary. Stay centered.
Quoting 293. NativeSun:

Hi all, this does look like a type of Modoki Nino setting up with warmer waters in the 3.4 and 4 regions and cooler waters in the 1.2 region. I will still go with JB and Dr. Maue on their Nino forecast over a blogger on a weather site . At least they both have degrees in meteorology and one of them has a PHD in Meteorology. Lets see what happens going foreword as I don't see this turning into a Super Godzilla Nino as some on here have been forecasting for a very long time. If this turns out to only be a Strong Nino, will this have an effect on the severe weather for the Southeast and Florida?


Where do you see that Nino 1+2 is cooling? It's above 2.0C anomalies according to Levi's site and other data posted here.
Here's the 96L reprise I've been blogging about the last few days...97L. Below is the ASCAT pass from in the night of that.


Quoting 297. tampabaymatt:



Where do you see that Nino 1+2 is cooling? It's above 2.0C anomalies according to Levi's site and other data posted here.
It's cooling from it's max temps set earlier this summer. This is not going to be a Super over the top Nino as some on here are predicting, it will however be a Strong Nino. I believe it will top out at 2.3 for a 3 month period. Remember it's an average of the temps for 3 months, not just the high temps for any given day or week. It sure will be nice to have cool neutral to La Nina conditions come next summer and the next few years to follow. Wait till the PDO turns cold, will be some interesting Nina's to come.
Quoting 170. PensacolaBuoy:

I suggested this four hours ago and was met with silence, but does anyone think a center relocation is possible with Ida?

I am feeling somewhat vindicated. I have been on this soapbox since 3:30 yesterday afternoon.
Quoting 300. PensacolaBuoy:


I am feeling somewhat vindicated. I have been on this soapbox since 3:30 yesterday afternoon.

Yes there's a center relocation....
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220837
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery indicates that Ida's low-level
circulation center is now moving or developing east-southeastward
closer to the large mass of deep convection that has been persisting
in the southeastern portion of the larger circulation. The initial
intensity is being maintained at 40 kt, especially now that the
low-level center has moved closer to the mid- and upper-level
circulations as seen in microwave and conventional satellite images.
This intensity is supported by a Dvorak current intensity estimate
of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.
Quoting 268. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Weather reporter Andreas Stidl (from Austria with an appropriate accent) from the German weather site wetteronline.de obviously was vacationing in Florida earlier when the remnants of Grace hit. He has done a nice video with a compilation of his experiences of tropical severe weather which was just published in order to show real weather action to us Germans. Enjoy, lol:




LOL! That's pretty much a normal day in C & S FL 5 to 6 months out of the year.
Quoting 300. PensacolaBuoy:


I am feeling somewhat vindicated. I have been on this soapbox since 3:30 yesterday afternoon.


They sometimes relocate to improve their enviroment
Looking extremely wet in FL the next few weeks. I hope some that live in low lying areas have good flood insurance. Even Eastern NC looks wet as well.

GFS Ensembles


Quoting 299. NativeSun:

It's cooling from it's max temps set earlier this summer. This is not going to be a Super over the top Nino as some on here are predicting, it will however be a Strong Nino. I believe it will top out at 2.3 for a 3 month period. Remember it's an average of the temps for 3 months, not just the high temps for any given day or week. It sure will be nice to have cool neutral to La Nina conditions come next summer and the next few years to follow. Wait till the PDO turns cold, will be some interesting Nina's to come.


As jedkins has said many times eventhough we are called the Sunshine state doesn't mean it doesn't rain near everyday for half the year as its the high heat & humidity that gets these storms going everyday. We might get sun everyday but watchout come 3pm to 7pm as that is typically when we get hit.
GEOS-5 has been on the 96L reprise for about 5 days. The only change in today's run is it comes back to FL Wed night, instead of Thursday morning. It's also a little more south.

Now that the center of Ida has relocated to the southeast, shear is much lower. With the middle and low level centers stacked, get ready for a few hours of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is rather conservative, I think.
Quoting 305. tampabaymatt:






I guess he forgot that we are already @ 2.3C and have been for 2 weeks already
Good Morning. Ida has stalled in the Central Atlantic......................Better there than over a populated area bringing flooding rains.........................

And the majority of Conus free from rain; California needs more rain from somewhere...................



Current U.S. Drought Monitor
I love to 06Z GFS with the low in the GOM.
It takes that low on a nice 7 day pleasure cruise all over the GOM, then it just dies out.
Do you think Ida has consolidated far enough south to resist the northward tug into the westerlies? I think we will see the models make some westward turns. The phrase "Tropical Storm Ida no threat to land" in the good doctor's blog makes me nervous. There's no wood to knock on in cyberspace!
Quoting 312. Sfloridacat5:

I love to 06Z GFS with the low in the GOM.
It takes that low on a nice 7 day pleasure cruise all over the GOM, then it just dies out.
Suffice it to say, it is a complex messy pattern out there. The models will be about worthless.
Conditions look like they will improve..... again.

Quoting 312. Sfloridacat5:

I love to 06Z GFS with the low in the GOM.
It takes that low on a nice 7 day pleasure cruise all over the GOM, then it just dies out.


Starting to look like what December 1997 looked like with a consistent trough in the Gulf and that is what the GFS & Euro are showing now. Looking mighty wet across FL for sometime to come.
Ida looking pretty large as well. Should send some swells all over the basin. Long period, not exceptionally large, but persistent. May wreak havoc with east coast boaters. Those types of swells go undetected until they hit inlets and shoals when they suddenly jump up seemingly out of "nowhere." Probably some 17 second + periods if she sits and spins long enough.

Quoting 310. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Ida has stalled in the Central Atlantic......................Better there than over a populated area bringing flooding rains.........................


between 97 and the upcoming gulf system someones going to get wet. surf looking to pick up this afternoon from 97 really nice fetch has set up. first decent swell i remember since last dec or jan. e cen fl.
Current models:







Forecast Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
454 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PINCH OFF WITH A
CUTOFF LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF DURING WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DRIFTING WEST TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR
TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL HANG AROUND
WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO POP UP AND HAVE
GONE WITH 20 POPS NORTH AND 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE SOUTH. IN
BETWEEN WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POP UP...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS. TONIGHT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE/SURGE WILL MOVE WEST THIS EVENING TAKING ANY POSSIBLE
CONVECTION OUT INTO THE GULF OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY AIR
OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR WEST BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS WE SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL HOLD IN PLACE FROM THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHEN IT WILL GET ABSORBED INTO DEEPER TROUGHING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE GULF COAST...
WHILE A SURFACE LOW LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINAS. WITH GENERALLY EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED...
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER
THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL FORECASTS...SO WILL STICK WITH SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED EAST FLOW.
Euro & CFSv2 forecasting a active October across the South as this El-Nino pattern is beginning.


101010, I'm out until the weekend. Took the swallowtail above my right eye. Ended up in ER Sunday morning for a tetanus shot and dermabond. Nice shiner. There is action at least.

Quoting 318. islander101010:

between 97 and the upcoming gulf system someones going to get wet. surf looking to pick up this afternoon from 97 really nice fetch has set up. first decent swell i remember since last dec or jan. e cen fl.
No matter how you slice it shear is going to be present in the Gulf due to this upper trough stuck in place over the Western Gulf. Now if the forms and moves closer to FL it will have a better chance to develop.

Quoting 316. StormTrackerScott:



Starting to look like what December 1997 looked like with a consistent trough in the Gulf and that is what the GFS & Euro are showing now. Looking mighty wet across FL for sometime to come.


When you say wet across Florida please be more specific. Wet across central Florida, Southern Florida or NW Florida. The reason I say that is we haven't had rain in NW Florida for over 2 weeks now, it's been sunny, warm and very dry.
So where is this supposed surface low forecast for the Southern GOM coming from?
Quoting 323. 69Viking:



When you say wet across Florida please be more specific. Wet across central Florida, Southern Florida or NW Florida. The reason I say that is we haven't had rain in NW Florida for over 2 weeks now, it's been sunny, warm and very dry.


You might like the 0Z GFS.

@ Nativesun update from the Aussie's from the Poama model. If this pans out we will surpass 1997 by 0.3C!

NINO3.4 value (OCT 2.53) (NOV 2.64) (DEC 2.65) (JAN 2.46) (FEB 2.08) MAR 1.61 APR 1.17

327. MahFL
The low seems a lot closer to Florida than what the NHC indicates :

328. MahFL
Quoting 324. 69Viking:

So where is this supposed surface low forecast for the Southern GOM coming from?


It forms over the Yucatan peninsular out of literally fresh air....
Quoting 327. MahFL:

The low seems a lot closer to Florida than what the NHC indicates :




They said 200 miles southeast of Hatteras, that looks about right to me
Quoting 301. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yes there's a center relocation....
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220837
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery indicates that Ida's low-level
circulation center is now moving or developing east-southeastward
closer to the large mass of deep convection that has been persisting
in the southeastern portion of the larger circulation. The initial
intensity is being maintained at 40 kt, especially now that the
low-level center has moved closer to the mid- and upper-level
circulations as seen in microwave and conventional satellite images.
This intensity is supported by a Dvorak current intensity estimate
of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.



All that needs to happen now is the convection to cover the newer center.

Ida really is proving to be an I storm.
I just wanna see some rain in NW Florida, another front passed by yesterday and gave SW Alabama a good soaking but the rain fizzled before ever reaching NW Florida. As you can see from the Satellite below it's very dry over us right now.

Quoting 329. win1gamegiantsplease:



They said 200 miles southeast of Hatteras, that looks about right to me


That's 200 miles SW of Hatteras according to that sat. pic.
333. MahFL
Quoting 329. win1gamegiantsplease:



They said 200 miles southeast of Hatteras, that looks about right to me


That is SSW of Hatteras not SE.
Quoting 330. FunnelVortex:



All that needs to happen now is the convection to cover the newer center.

Ida really is proving to be an I storm.

Well they did say it's now closer to the convection
Quoting 306. StormTrackerScott:

As jedkins has said many times eventhough we are called the Sunshine state doesn't mean it doesn't rain near everyday for half the year as its the high heat & humidity that gets these storms going everyday. We might get sun everyday but watchout come 3pm to 7pm as that is typically when we get hit.
"Someshine State" is a but more accurate in my experience... I do so enjoy the lack of constant gray days we'd get in both SoCal and MidTen
336. MahFL
Quoting 333. MahFL:



That is SSW of Hatteras not SE.


SW of Hatteras would be very close to the coast
Ida has some great outflow in the south quadrants, but where's the center????
Quoting 332. StormTrackerScott:



That's 200 miles SW of Hatteras according to that sat. pic.


Both you and MahFL are right, it's early I don't have my bearings set

But I don't think that spin shown in the pic is where the low is centered at. Albeit small, you can see moisture being drawn inward southeast of Hatteras in this one:

Quoting 338. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Ida has some great outflow in the south quadrants, but where's the center????


It's JUST north of the convection. It's maintaned good convection and outflow for a while. The center just needs to get under it.
Quoting 321. HaoleboySurfEC:

101010, I'm out until the weekend. Took the swallowtail above my right eye. Ended up in ER Sunday morning for a tetanus shot and dermabond. Nice shiner. There is action at least.


No Photo?? (Glad it wasn't any worse!)
Quoting 339. win1gamegiantsplease:



Both you and MahFL are right, it's early I don't have my bearings set

But I don't think that spin shown in the pic is where the low is centered at. Albeit small, you can see moisture being drawn inward southeast of Hatteras in this one:




That looks like it might just be a hair north of Cape Lookout
Quoting 327. MahFL:

The low seems a lot closer to Florida than what the NHC indicates :


The low is well NE of your image. The location off of Cape H is about right. Here's the 97L floater.

Quoting 268. barbamz:

Good morning over there. Weather reporter Andreas Stidl (from Austria with an appropriate accent) from the German weather site wetteronline.de obviously was vacationing in Florida earlier when the remnants of Grace hit. He has done a nice video with a compilation of his experiences of tropical severe weather which was just published in order to show real weather action to us Germans. Enjoy, lol:




That was great, Barb. It looks like he enjoyed it. We do offer a variety of weather, almost daily!
Thank you.
Quoting 343. StAugustineFL:



The low is well NE of your image. The location off of Cape H is about right. Here's the 97L floater.




Interesting as there are 2 lows there. One near Hatteras has more convection with it.
never got really hurt surfing to i was 50. got sliced twice since then. hope you feel better soon haole boy
Charleston Long Range NEXRAD Radar




No rain... over land.
NOLA /Slidell NWS Morning disco'

Long term...
the weekend should be a transition from the dry air fighting to
stay put and the moist hot air trying to return. Another deep
upper trough digs southward and brings another cold front into the
area by the start of next week. Deep tropical moisture is expected
to move from the Yucatan and western Caribbean northward along the
east side of the trough. Since it is getting toward the western
Caribbean season for tropical disturbances...wouldn't be surprised
to see some type of disturbance try to form near the northwest Caribbean
early next week. All global suites bring a cold front to our area
by the same time. Initializing global runs look good. The problem
will be in the fact that there is nothing to grab on to at this
time. Models do exactly as they are supposed to do even when they
have a feature that does not actually exist at the current time.
The models will then move that feature with relation to its
physics and dynamics packages that individual model uses. But
when there is nothing for the model to physically grab...then we
may see all sorts of solutions over the coming days. One thing
that does increase confidence is the area of difluence. This upper
difluence should be located over the eastern Gulf by early next
week since both global models have the same general temporal and
spacial solutions concerning the upper trough. This would
definitely cause a large area of sh/ts to develop over that
region. But there would definitely be a plethera of dry air to
the west in the base of the upper trough. The difluence would help
lower surface pressures as well and would most likely keep the surface low
relatively close to the area of strongest and deepest convection
over the eastern Gulf. The feature would act like a hybrid as dry
air would entrain from the west and deep moisture would be brought
in from the southeast. Movement would depend greatly on the upper trough
and frontal speed. But at this time if anything is capable of
getting started...the system would move NE until the next ridge
builds and cuts its path off forcing it to either stall or move
back southward. It would be a great surprise if we did not see
another front trying to make its way southward into our area after
that since this troughing has been occurring throughout the year.
This would tend to bring whatever is left toward fla. But
again...there is nothing existing at the moment where the models
are trying to initialize something next week.


Quoting 346. islander101010:

never got really hurt surfing to i was 50. got sliced twice since then. hope you feel better soon haole boy


My only major injuries from a life time of surfing have come from two separate stingray barbs (one in my ankle and another one in the soft part on the bottom of my foot).


Another hot and sunny day here in S.W. Florida.
That's after picking up 8.8" in the first 16 days of the month here at the house.

Quoting 343. StAugustineFL:



The low is well NE of your image. The location off of Cape H is about right. Here's the 97L floater.



Isn't that a low at 31.3N, 77.4W?
Quoting 348. CaribBoy:



No rain... over land.


That picture looks worse everytime you post it
353. SLU
Quoting 349. Patrap:

NOLA /Slidell NWS Morning disco'

Long term...
the weekend should be a transition from the dry air fighting to
stay put and the moist hot air trying to return. Another deep
upper trough digs southward and brings another cold front into the
area by the start of next week. Deep tropical moisture is expected
to move from the Yucatan and western Caribbean northward along the
east side of the trough. Since it is getting toward the western
Caribbean season for tropical disturbances...wouldn't be surprised
to see some type of disturbance try to form near the northwest Caribbean
early next week. All global suites bring a cold front to our area
by the same time. Initializing global runs look good. The problem
will be in the fact that there is nothing to grab on to at this
time. Models do exactly as they are supposed to do even when they
have a feature that does not actually exist at the current time.
The models will then move that feature with relation to its
physics and dynamics packages that individual model uses. But
when there is nothing for the model to physically grab...then we
may see all sorts of solutions over the coming days. One thing
that does increase confidence is the area of difluence. This upper
difluence should be located over the eastern Gulf by early next
week since both global models have the same general temporal and
spacial solutions concerning the upper trough. This would
definitely cause a large area of sh/ts to develop over that
region. But there would definitely be a plethera of dry air to
the west in the base of the upper trough. The difluence would help
lower surface pressures as well and would most likely keep the surface low
relatively close to the area of strongest and deepest convection
over the eastern Gulf. The feature would act like a hybrid as dry
air would entrain from the west and deep moisture would be brought
in from the southeast. Movement would depend greatly on the upper trough
and frontal speed. But at this time if anything is capable of
getting started...the system would move NE until the next ridge
builds and cuts its path off forcing it to either stall or move
back southward. It would be a great surprise if we did not see
another front trying to make its way southward into our area after
that since this troughing has been occurring throughout the year.
This would tend to bring whatever is left toward fla. But
again...there is nothing existing at the moment where the models
are trying to initialize something next week.




Great discussion Pat from the NWS in Slidell. Sums it up quite nicely.
Looks very active across the FL Penisula tomorrow. Some storms could be severe with hail and high winds due to the 500mb temps of -10C.


Quoting 355. StormTrackerScott:

Looks very active across the FL Penisula tomorrow. Some storms could be severe with hail and high winds due to the 500mb temps of -10C.



I wonder what that is north of Cuba?


HRRR model is showing lots of rain across S FL today.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago
Still no #hurricanes in Atlantic basin west of 55W-1st time since 1914 that 0 noted by this late in the year #climate
REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD EP162015
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK SECTION.


...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR SIXTEEN-E. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN-E HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER FLOW.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS
PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E
COULD BRING UP TO ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM MDT

...ARIZONA...
DAN SADDLE 4.61
PARK TANK 3.94
CALABASAS CANYON 3.31
MANNING CAMP/RINCON MOUNTAINS 3.23
ITALIAN TRAP 3.23
GREEN VALLEY 11 ESE 2.94
WHITE TAIL NEAR PALISADES 2.87
PECK CANYON 2.87
FLORIDA CANYON 2.83
ARIVACA LAKE 2.80
PENA BLANCA LAKE 2.71
EPHRAIM WASH/NOGALES 2.56
ARIVACA/AMADO MINE 2.44
MILLER CARR CANYON ALERT GAUGE 2.40
SANTA CRUZ RIVER AT TUBAC 2.28
MT LEMMON ALERT 2.21
SIERRA VISTA 5 SW 2.09
DRAGOON 2.09
PATAGONIA LAKE 2.05
NOGALES INTL ARPT 1.93
Quoting 358. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1h1 hour ago
Still no #hurricanes in Atlantic basin west of 55W-1st time since 1914 that 0 noted by this late in the year #climate

cool!!


i see two lows here



I apologize for posting this yesterday, when there was no floater yet. I didn't want to confuse anybody. I mean I had no way of knowing that there would be an invest moving toward the southeast US coast.

If this winter of 2015-2016 is anything like 1997-1998 winter in Florida, I might be buggin out. Simply because, I can ride out a CAT 1-3 Hurricane, but in Strong El Nino Fall and Winter the Subtropical jet stream rides right over Florida and brings the Midwestern supercell thunderstorms and Tornadoes in central and Southern Florida. I moved to Orlando in 1996, not even a year later we had F-3 tornadoes going by the old Fujita scale. I was thinking wasn't this supposed to happen in Oklahoma. It was scary man. I feel for the people in Tornado alley and what they have to endure on a seasonal basis. Also of note the Tornadoes that hit Central Florida that year were at night, u couldn't see them coming but u heard the train sound. Any comments from other residents in Central Florida
Good Morning Class!

A nice start to the day in Soo Cal.......still a chance for a Thunderstorm this pm.......currently

Weather Conditions for:
Puerta La Cruz, CA. HP015 (HPWREN)
Elev: 2970 ft; Latitude: 33.32; Longitude: -116.68

Current time: Tue, 22 Sep 7:42 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 22 Sep 7:37 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Station Precip Precip Precip Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Pressure Accumulated 6 hour 24 hour Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (inches) (inches) (inches)
22 Sep 7:37 am PDT 64 51 64 E 2G02 911.20 24.25 0.01 OK
Quoting 362. Grothar:




I apologize for posting this yesterday, when there was no floater yet. I didn't want to confuse anybody. I mean I had no way of knowing that there would be an invest moving toward the southeast US coast.




Sure you didn't master!


MAYBE INVEST 98L north of invest 97L!
NWS Melbourne...SAT-MON...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH GENERATES A CUT-OFF LOW
IN THE MID LEVELS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ARKLATEX (GFS) OR SOUTH TX
(ECMWF). IN THE LOW LEVELS...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP WATER
VALUES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED (40-50 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS LOOKS ESP WET SUN-MON AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CARIB/SE GULF WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER WEST OVER THE GULF. BOTH MODELS
SHOW SOME SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE YUCATAN
SUNDAY LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE
A SEMI BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOW
FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.



There is a closed, low-level circulation at 31' 77 and a mid-level circulation at 34' 74
Yet another Central Pacific storm on the way?
96C currently has a 70% chance of forming during the next 48 hours according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. While it is not currently very impressive, it is showing signs of organization, with deep convection in the eastern part of the system. Will it become the seventh tropical storm to be named in the Central Pacific?
By the way, the next name on the list is Niala.

Quoting 370. Doom2pro:



There is a closed, low-level circulation at 31' 77 and a mid-level circulation at 34' 74


Maybe one broad low with vorticies rotating around a main center.
Quoting 372. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe one broad low with vorticies rotating around a main center.
maybe we will get a weak tropical storm from this low
terrible.....
feeling for you guys....
Quoting 352. FunnelVortex:



That picture looks worse everytime you post it
Quoting 374. hurricanes2018:

maybe we will get a weak tropical storm from this low
No then that storm name will be the J storm. I dont want that because of the potential storm in the gulf maybe the K storm. I dont want that K storm name no where near the gulf. I rather see the J name.
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:

Euro & CFSv2 forecasting a active October across the South as this El-Nino pattern is beginning.





Wish some of that would come up to DC. It's been very very dry here. Some locales got lucky with bands last week and the week before but not mine in College Park MD. Some trees are wilting and early color (due to drought not cold) is very striking this year. Fall garden is not doing well due to heat (though that issue is ending),
and drought. Corn and tomatoes though just keep coming!

Despite my gripes, a record warm September does not appear in the cards here this year.
It's an El Nino season for the Atlantic and we are up to 9 named storms with Ida; not many more to go IMHO between now and the end of this one in November; maybe another 2 storms closer to the Western Caribbean and/or Gulf when the MJO comes around to those regions again and if sheer cooperates.

I for one am very happy, again, that no one in the Caribbean or US got clobbered this year with a major Cape Verde storm.......................It's been several years now and the streak continues for the time being.
Will note that one of the Islands took a big hit (Dominica?) from one of the Caribbean storms however a few weeks ago with loss of life..............................
we have been dry in the caribbean for months on end.....consider yourself lucky!

Quoting 331. 69Viking:

I just wanna see some rain in NW Florida, another front passed by yesterday and gave SW Alabama a good soaking but the rain fizzled before ever reaching NW Florida. As you can see from the Satellite below it's very dry over us right now.


Quoting 378. weathermanwannabe:

It's an El Nino season for the Atlantic and we are up to 9 named storms with Ida; not many more to go IMHO between now and the end of this one in November; maybe another 2 storms closer to the Western Caribbean and/or Gulf when the MJO comes around to those regions again and if sheer cooperates.

I for one am very happy, again, that no one in the Caribbean or US got clobbered this year with a major Cape Verde storm.......................It's been several years now and the streak continues for the time being.


Have something interesting for you coming.
Quoting 375. 19N81W:

terrible.....
feeling for you guys....



I'm not from the Carribean
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 4h4 hours ago
The Atl has had 63 hurricanes since FL had its last, Wilma,'05. Prior record was 33 between David '79 & Elena '85.
It was Erika and here are the stats from Wiki: 31 dead (mostly flooding) and 35 remain missing.


Quoting 201. gulfbreeze:

It would be rare for a system to go to Texas this late in the season.


Me remembers this one





these are all border line storms except for a couple....
I suspect in years past half of them would never be classified
but with satellites and hurricane hunters and bouys out there as soon as it makes the mark they pin it to make sure there is a reason for them next year.
with that said while we dont want destruction we need water and this year has been terrible and with our 'winter' season nearing when its dry that means an exponential dry period and with el nino going into next spring it just means increasing drought
Quoting 378. weathermanwannabe:

It's an El Nino season for the Atlantic and we are up to 9 named storms with Ida; not many more to go IMHO between now and the end of this one in November; maybe another 2 storms closer to the Western Caribbean and/or Gulf when the MJO comes around to those regions again and if sheer cooperates.

I for one am very happy, again, that no one in the Caribbean or US got clobbered this year with a major Cape Verde storm.......................It's been several years now and the streak continues for the time being.
the original poster then?
really is that required
Quoting 382. FunnelVortex:



I'm not from the Carribean
Quoting 228. sar2401:

Hard to believe that Autumn is already here. Maybe it will finally mean some cooler temperatures and more rain for as as we get toward winter.


The dogs will migrate from the various floor AC vents to my woodstove sometime in October. They're enjoying morning and night walks a lot more now.. midday, still too warm many days.
Quoting 378. weathermanwannabe:

It's an El Nino season for the Atlantic and we are up to 9 named storms with Ida; not many more to go IMHO between now and the end of this one in November; maybe another 2 storms closer to the Western Caribbean and/or Gulf when the MJO comes around to those regions again and if sheer cooperates.

I for one am very happy, again, that no one in the Caribbean or US got clobbered this year with a major Cape Verde storm.......................It's been several years now and the streak continues for the time being.
Yeah its been pretty active El Nino season this year because the last El Nino season we didn't get to Ida in 2009 until November. So the storm names are at the same stoppage point as we were in 09 but i believe we will surpassed the 09 count.
Quoting 370. Doom2pro:



There is a closed, low-level circulation at 31' 77 and a mid-level circulation at 34' 74
Maybe code orange next Tropical Weather Outlook.
Quoting 385. RitaEvac:



Me remembers this one








The October Thrill along TX coast. One of three that entire year!

Allison
Chantel
Jerry
Quoting 391. RitaEvac:



The October Thrill along TX coast. One of three that entire year!

Allison
Chantel
Jerry


Chantal and Jerry were my first hurricanes. But almost no one else remembers them.
Quoting 390. HurricaneAndre:

Maybe code orange next Tropical Weather Outlook.


97L is looking rather interesting this morning.
Scattered CloudsScattered Clouds
79°F
Feels Like: 81°
Wind Chill: 79° Ceiling: Unl
Heat Index: 81° Visibility: 10.00mi
Dew Point: 68° Wind Speed: 17mph
Humidity: 69% Direction: 20° (NNE)
Pressure: 30.02" Wind Gusts: 25mph
Rep


Getting a little gusty here in Wilmington last couple hours
That was an active year for me, 1989. 9 years old, the previous year in 88 was the Gilbert scare. After the 89 season I was full active weather nut since then

I see tropical storm force winds in there.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 349. Patrap:

NOLA /Slidell NWS Morning disco'

Long term...
the weekend should be a transition from the dry air fighting to
stay put and the moist hot air trying to return. Another deep
upper trough digs southward and brings another cold front into the
area by the start of next week. Deep tropical moisture is expected
to move from the Yucatan and western Caribbean northward along the
east side of the trough. Since it is getting toward the western
Caribbean season for tropical disturbances...wouldn't be surprised
to see some type of disturbance try to form near the northwest Caribbean
early next week. All global suites bring a cold front to our area
by the same time. Initializing global runs look good. The problem
will be in the fact that there is nothing to grab on to at this
time. Models do exactly as they are supposed to do even when they
have a feature that does not actually exist at the current time.
The models will then move that feature with relation to its
physics and dynamics packages that individual model uses. But
when there is nothing for the model to physically grab...then we
may see all sorts of solutions over the coming days. One thing
that does increase confidence is the area of difluence. This upper
difluence should be located over the eastern Gulf by early next
week since both global models have the same general temporal and
spacial solutions concerning the upper trough. This would
definitely cause a large area of sh/ts to develop over that
region. But there would definitely be a plethera of dry air to
the west in the base of the upper trough. The difluence would help
lower surface pressures as well and would most likely keep the surface low
relatively close to the area of strongest and deepest convection
over the eastern Gulf. The feature would act like a hybrid as dry
air would entrain from the west and deep moisture would be brought
in from the southeast. Movement would depend greatly on the upper trough
and frontal speed. But at this time if anything is capable of
getting started...the system would move NE until the next ridge
builds and cuts its path off forcing it to either stall or move
back southward. It would be a great surprise if we did not see
another front trying to make its way southward into our area after
that since this troughing has been occurring throughout the year.
This would tend to bring whatever is left toward fla. But
again...there is nothing existing at the moment where the models
are trying to initialize something next week.



Quoting 396. HurricaneAndre:


I see tropical storm force winds in there.



Im in Wilmington and just noted above that its gotten quite gusty last couple hours. No rain. just overcast
Some of the Computer Forecast models want to develop an area of Low Pressure in the Southern Gulf Of Mexico. Its seems its going to have a tough time developing due to the High wind Shear forecasted. That's a good thing for our interests in Energy esp. for gas prices to be kept at these affordable levels.
Scott I see you put up info about strong storms today too. I called the Melbourne NWS, they were saying the same thing about the lapse rates looking decently steep if u would. Geez the last thing we need here is for more rain.