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Flash Floods Likely in Arizona and California From 91E; Atlantic Threats are Minimal

By: Jeff Masters 4:44 PM GMT on September 20, 2015

An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula (Invest 91E) is headed north at 15 mph, and will likely make landfall on the central Baja coast on Monday morning. Satellite images of 91E on Sunday morning showed plenty of moisture and heavy thunderstorms were associated with 91E, though this activity was not well-organized enough to be declared a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70%. Moisture from this system will produce heavy rains across portions of the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday, potentially causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. An impressive surge of moisture 91E will bring some of the highest levels of water vapor ever recorded in September to Southern California and Arizona beginning on Monday and extending into Tuesday. This rich tropical moisture will very likely cause dangerous flash flooding; the NWS is predicting that up to four inches of rain could fall in portions of Arizona, which is a very extreme amount of rain for this desert region. Daniel Swain's excellent California Weather Blog noted on Saturday evening that this week's rains from 91E could cause September 2015 to set some all-time monthly precipitation records in Southern California, thanks to rains last week from the remnants of Hurricane Linda. Those rains led to flash flooding that killed 19 people in the Utah/Arizona border region.

Geary's webcam on the Sea of Cortez in central Baja is capturing some good images of the storm, and his PWS has recorded 1.03" of rain as of 5 pm EDT Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 91E.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Sunday, September 30, 2015. 91E is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to four inches to Arizona. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Invest 96L off Southeast U.S. coast little threat
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of North Carolina (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to the waters more than 500 miles offshore of the U.S. East Coast, but is not a major wind or heavy rain threat to the coast. The disturbance is under high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and there is plenty of dry air around it, which is inhibiting development. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that 96L had a weak and very elongated surface circulation, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms were poorly organized and far from the center of circulation. Our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis showed no development, and NHC has stopped tracking this system as an "Invest" (area of interest]. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. Strong winds from the system will bring high surf to the Outer Banks of North Carolina much of the week.


Figure 3. VIIRS image of the action in the Atlantic as seen by the Suomi satellite taken on Saturday, September 19, 2015. Tropical Depression 9 (TD 9, center) was downgraded to a remnant low by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday afternoon. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ida no threat to land
Tropical Storm Ida continued to head west-northwest at 12 mph on Sunday morning, well away from any land areas. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Ida was struggling against moderate wind shear, which had exposed the center of circulation to view and kept all of Ida's heavy thunderstorms limited to the east side of the center. Conditions over the next few days favor slow strengthening, with the 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicting moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, warm ocean temperatures near 28.5°C (83°F), and a moist atmosphere. The long-range fate of Ida is unclear, since the storm will experience a collapse in its steering currents from Monday through Wednesday that will cause a very slow, erratic motion. A strong trough of low pressure passing to its north may be able to pull Ida to the north late in the week, or the storm may stay trapped in the Central Atlantic by weak steering currents.

Tropical Depression 5-C in the Central Pacific
Tropical Depression 5-C is moving north-northeastwards on a path that will take it several hundred miles west of the Hawaiian Islands. Although TD 5-C is fighting high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots, just a slight increase in organization would bring it to tropical storm status, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for central portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski Island. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Happy Sunday!!!
Thanks dok!

Thanks Doc.
I'd like to see Ida be like Ginger. Without the NC landfall.

I think once Ida slows down in forward motion we may see some intensification.
Thanks doc! Sorry I've been off for so long, looks like the El Niño may help out the drought in California this fall/winter.


Hard to envision anything else forming in the MDR from this point on. Cape Verde development season close to being over, as we head to October
Quoting 7. superpete:



Hard to envision anything else forming in the MDR from this point on. Cape Verde development season close to being over, as we head to October


I agree. Time to shift all the attention close to home.
The Caribbean is headed for an epic catastrophic drought
It will be one of the worst in recorded history
It's interesting to note how the storms this summer (tropical waves and storms) have gone around the caribbean.It has its on little dry shied like Texas did in 2011.
From this morning's Miami NWS Discussion...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG THE TROUGH SWINGING INTO
THE EASTERN US MID-LATE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF STILL REMAIN IN TWO
SEPARATE CAMPS WITH THE GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIFTS THE
LOW OUT QUICKLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
ROBUST CUT-OFF THAT RETROGRADES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW BETWEEN THE MODELS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON JUST HOW WET AND STORMY IT GETS HERE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.

Link
Quoting 9. 19N81W:

The Caribbean is headed for an epic catastrophic drought
It will be one of the worst in recorded history


Thank El Niño for that.
rain could come back in a big way. carib is ripe for development until dec. but will the upper level winds cooperate?
Quoting 12. Bucsboltsfan:



Thank El Niño for that.



not sure what your talking about but the Caribbean been in a drought long be for we even had a EL Nino so nic try
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

It's interesting to note how the storms this summer (tropical waves and storms) have gone around the caribbean.It has its on little dry shied like Texas did in 2011.


Texas is having another death ridge. It's late Sept. It's El Nino. Storms to the west. Storms to the east. The storms from the E Pacific are completely bypassing us. We're not supposed to have a death ridge. But there is no relief in site.
No Floods Please....
I see 96L is now 0/0 and has lost its floater, so that should be yet another yellow X removed on the next update. Ida is now the only game in town for tropical weather fans unless and until something develops in the BOC or western Gulf next weekend. We have had a pretty rapid descent from the peak of the season so far.

In local weather news, one of our LOL cold fronts just passed through. The wind shifted to the north, the temperature dropped from 95 to 93, and dewpoint went down to 69 from 70. The frontal passage was marked by two cumulus clouds that rapidly met their demise. There's supposed to be "an area of higher moisture content" (doesn't even rate being called an LOL front) slide south tonight that will increase my chances or rain to {gasp!} 20% overnight. I washed the car yesterday and left all the windows down. I have my weather station set to sound an alarm when the heavy rains hit. I'm doing all I can, but I suspect my night will not be disturbed by any alarms. :-)

Quoting 9. 19N81W:

The Caribbean is headed for an epic catastrophic drought
It will be one of the worst in recorded history


Except for Dominica...
Quoting 9. 19N81W:

The Caribbean is headed for an epic catastrophic drought
It will be one of the worst in recorded history


Let's pray not Because the impacts from related storms and tropical systems that may produce torrential rains on such hardened top soil surfaces will result in equally as deadly catastrophic floods and mud slides...

Blessings to All!
n.w.carib.popcorn.showers
Quoting 18. sar2401:

I see 96L is now 0/0 and has lost its floater, so that should be yet another yellow X removed on the next update. Ida is now the only game in town for tropical weather fans unless and until something develops in the BOC or western Gulf next weekend. We have had a pretty rapid descent from the peak of the season so far.

In local weather news, one of our LOL cold fronts just passed through. The wind shifted to the north, the temperature dropped from 95 to 93, and dewpoint went down to 69 from 70. The frontal passage was marked by two cumulus clouds that rapidly met their demise. There's supposed to be "an area of higher moisture content" (doesn't even rate being called an LOL front) slide south tonight that will increase my chances or rain to {gasp!} 20% overnight. I washed the car yesterday and left all the windows down. I have my weather station set to sound an alarm when the heavy rains hit. I'm doing all I can, but I suspect my night will not be disturbed by any alarms. :-)




Your "cold front" sounds like our cold front. No relief in sight around here.
Quoting 20. NatureIsle:



Let's pray not Because the impacts from related storms and tropical systems that may produce torrential rains on such hardened top soil surfaces will result in equally as deadly catastrophic floods and mud slides...

Blessings to All!


Exactly. An intense and isolated rain event within a long drought is potentially catastrophic.
Quoting 17. PedleyCA:

No Floods Please....
I don't see the LA basin getting in on this. Even the desert areas of San Bernardino County are probably too far north. Far eastern Riverside County might get some rain but the biggest slug is going to be from Casa Grande south, although it's hard to tell if enough moisture will work its way north to cause problems in Phoenix. Tucson is definitely under the gun, as are areas further north and east into New Mexico. This would be a good couple of days to avoid camping in otherwise dry washes.
Quoting 22. SubtropicalHi:



Your "cold front" sounds like our cold front. No relief in sight around here.
Yes, cold fronts in summer in south Alabama are like the ones in Texas. They should properly be called "Not Quite as Hot" fronts but, for some reason, I've been unable to convince the NWS of this. We generally get our first real cold front sometime in mid to late October, generally around Halloween. It's hilarious seeing the trick or treaters all bundled up with three jackets and a blanket because the temperature has dropped all the way to 50. The temperature last Halloween was in the high 40's, and about 75% of the kids were being driven around by their parents, so little Ethan and Sophia wouldn't freeze to death. Since when did having your parents anywhere near you on Halloween become fun?
Quoting 26. CaribBoy:




boring
Quoting 26. CaribBoy:


That's almost a towering cumulus, and I think I see some virga on the right side. Progress is being made. :-)
Season grinds to a halt with Ida unlikely to be more than an entertaining where will it go storm. As the good doctor states, "No threat to land". SW Caribbean is now the place where any further action will be, along with the GOH. Sure we have at least one surprise storm yet to come that no one sees coming, much like the MDR action was unexpected this season.
Quoting 23. hydrus:


yes ive been seeing that also run thru run...guess things might get interesting in 7-9 days huh.
Euro and CMC put it into the LA area.............................................. ...............
Quoting 32. LargoFl:

yes ive been seeing that also run thru run...guess things might get interesting in 7-9 days huh.


Waiting to see the time frame drop. We're back to the same time frame as two days ago. So there's still a lot of uncertainty. Also, the models don't do much in terms of development keeping the low weak.

But a lot can and will change, but it's fun to watch the models none the less.

It's been quite a while since we've had a strong storm in the GOM.
Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:



Waiting to see the time frame drop. We're back to the same time frame as two days ago. So there's still a lot of uncertainty. Also, the models don't do much in terms of development keeping the low weak.

But a lot can and will change, but it's fun to watch the models none the less.

It's been quite a while since we've had a strong storm in the GOM.

"Strong storm in the GOM" Don't need one, don't want one.
Quoting 32. LargoFl:

yes ive been seeing that also run thru run...guess things might get interesting in 7-9 days huh.


Looks like a weak low to me
Quoting 35. PCCfan:


"Strong storm in the GOM" Don't need one, don't want one.



U Kidding? The way the models have performed there won't be one
Quoting 35. PCCfan:


"Strong storm in the GOM" Don't need one, don't want one.


And wouldn't it be odd if the storm happened to have the name KATE?
Quoting 37. K8eCane:




U Kidding? The way the models have performed there won't be one

Sure hope you're right. Weather is not my hobby, but I live in SE LA. After a direct hit from Gustov, I'm very keen on the forecasts this time of year. I trust the folks that know more than I to keep me informed.
Quoting 39. PCCfan:


Sure hope you're right. Weather is not my hobby, but I live in SE LA. After a direct hit from Gustov, I'm very keen on the forecasts this time of year. I trust the folks that know more than I to keep me informed.


So do I. And Kate would be a wonderful storm to have
Dont make any plans based off models this year. Listen to the real deal when planning trips etc
Looks like a big batch of that Pacific moisture is heading for us in Northern NM. Would expect some big time rain.
Quoting 40. K8eCane:



So do I. And Kate would be a wonderful storm to have
Dont make any plans based off models this year. Listen to the real deal when planning trips etc


K8eCane. Katie? Ah! Very good! And if not, my apologies!
Quoting 35. PCCfan:


"Strong storm in the GOM" Don't need one, don't want one.


Probably won't get one. And the chances are even lower that it will affect your area if something were to form.
But it's always a smart decision to be prepared just in case.
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:



Probably won't get one. And the chances are even lower that it will affect your area if something were to form.

Sounds good to me. Thanks for the comment.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 113.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 113.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




i hate it when they do that other TD lost with out getting named
Quoting 42. PCCfan:



K8eCane. Katie? Ah! Very good! And if not, my apologies!




Right! Thats how I know it would be a wonderful storm to have.
But then theres Karma, so Im retracting that statement right now lol
Quoting 26. CaribBoy:


Where is that beautiful place?
so thats now TD 4E TD 8E TD 11E now TD 16E 4 TDs failed too get named in the E PAC


note TD 4E got named but did not do so in tell C PAC so TD 4E still counted for the E PAC how ever



if the E PAC gets one more TD with out getting named we will be tide with the 2010 E PAC wish had 5 TDs fail too get named


and you no what the carzy thing is 2010 was not a vary strong EL nino year so i find it nuts that we have TDs in the E PAC failing too be come name storms in a vary strong EL nino year you can tell that the E PAC is not haveing other 2014 hurricane season
the E PAC is up too 12 name storms for the season i think its a safe bet now that the E PAC will see about 15 to 17 named storms for there season starting too get later and later in the season we can still get storms but so far the E PAC is not liveing up too the vary strong EL Nino we have
Krovanh. Looks like a little eye in there.. .

Thank you for the update Dr Masters!

Say hello to TD #16E........supposed to cross Baja Peninsula tonight. Wonder how much further north it comes before doing so? The longer it stays west, the better the rain chances for Soo Cal. Looks like Arizona will get pounded either way.

Quoting 52. hydrus:

Krovanh. Looks like a little eye in there.. .




20/1432 UTC 34.5N 150.1E EXTRATROPICAL KROVANH -- West Pacific




that storm you posted is now EXTRATROPICAL
2 points ... as a lurker I think it would be helpful is wu would put location besides each persons pseudonym ... also i observe the disparity of models and even the wildness of the spaghetti tracks ... is there anywhere that holds these models accountable by publishing the accuracy? ... my location is west central florida
Quoting 54. Tazmanian:



20/1432 UTC 34.5N 150.1E EXTRATROPICAL KROVANH -- West Pacific




that storm you posted is now EXTRATROPICAL
Indeed...Glad I am not under that. It looks large and mean.
Them live ones getting closer and closer to SooCal. A nice TS would be ok by me. A little jog to the WNW would be ok TD 16E!
Burst of convection east of Ida's center.

Quoting 59. hydrus:

Burst of convection east of Ida's center.




Looks like it is trying to catch up.

Ida is going to slow down in forward motion which should reduce the impact of shear
Quoting 49. Tazmanian:

so thats now TD 4E TD 8E TD 11E now TD 16E 4 TDs failed too get named in the E PAC


note TD 4E got named but did not do so in tell C PAC so TD 4E still counted for the E PAC how ever



if the E PAC gets one more TD with out getting named we will be tide with the 2010 E PAC wish had 5 TDs fail too get named


and you no what the carzy thing is 2010 was not a vary strong EL nino year so i find it nuts that we have TDs in the E PAC failing too be come name storms in a vary strong EL nino year you can tell that the E PAC is not haveing other 2014 hurricane season


True dat. I don't know the location of the first 3 TD's but # 16 is in a bad spot and really does not have a true shot to upgrade.
I like Ore-Ida tater tots!
Quoting 55. Invisabull:

2 points ... as a lurker I think it would be helpful is wu would put location besides each persons pseudonym ... also i observe the disparity of models and even the wildness of the spaghetti tracks ... is there anywhere that holds these models accountable by publishing the accuracy? ... my location is west central florida
That spin entering the Western Caribbean will be a player in this, and by looking at the sat pic, it would likely be subtropical. Models are not good with weak systems. So determining where it may go is tricky.



Quoting 55. Invisabull:

2 points ... as a lurker I think it would be helpful is wu would put location besides each persons pseudonym ... also i observe the disparity of models and even the wildness of the spaghetti tracks ... is there anywhere that holds these models accountable by publishing the accuracy? ... my location is west central florida


I sorta did with my avatar, but that would be kinda cool, storm2k has that option but it's more of a forum than a blog. When in doubt, assume they're from Florida. Usually you can tell by what people comment on or post, but we have lots of islanders who put that in their username (not just islanders of course, and some like Gearts aren't as easy to see). Lots of west coasters too. And speaking of which looks like the forecast for precip for Socal improves with our new TD, which looks to be intensifying towards a name.'

And with that, I'll be out. My username is pretty accurate of how I feel right now. Tootaloo.

Along with the rest of you, model watching 10 days out. It seems like the eastern Pacific portion of the monsoonal trough gets active twice in a season and spans both basins. At the beginning and near the end.

The GFS for sure always wants to bundle up a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity and take all this "modeled" latent heat and produce a low pressure system and move it out of the SW Caribbean. Sometimes it actually does, sometimes it doesn't. Consistently inconsistent might describe the run-to-run model results from this type of slow-developing scenario.

Genesis is, like this post, "fuzzy" right now.


09/20 12Z GFS mslp, 10 m winds, 6 hr precip, 2 m temps-valid @ 96 hrs
This Low is not the TD 16E/Remnants of 16E but a ULL spinning now about 500 miles west of Central Baja coast. It is forecast to move NE to this position while what's left of 16E will be further east.



The San Diego forecasters must be getting giddy with all the rain we have had......look at these forecast amounts the next couple days. A lot of times the rain fails to show up with this trof/southern moisture surge and it ends up off to the east.......we will know very soon how it turns out.

Quoting 61. FunnelVortex:



Looks like it is trying to catch up.

Ida is going to slow down in forward motion which should reduce the impact of shear
I believe that if Ida slowed down the vertical shear would be worse than it is now. Sometimes the storm moves in the same direction as the shear, this allows the thunderstorms to move toward the center.

Quoting 68. hydrus:

I believe that if Ida slowed down the vertical shear would be worse than it is now. Sometimes the storm moves in the same direction as the shear, this allows the thunderstorms to move toward the center.




Like they are now?
You can see the ULL and a little flare up on it's NE edge and TD #16E by central Baja.

Quoting 69. FunnelVortex:



Like they are now?
Almost...Notice the wind shear to the west. If Ida moves into that at a increased forward speed , the storms will wrap into the center. Providing that the storm is moving along with the upper level winds.

Quoting 71. hydrus:

Almost...Notice the wind shear to the west. If Ida moves into that at a increased forward speed , the storms will wrap into the center. Providing that the storm is moving along with the upper level winds.




Will it interact with that?
Quoting 72. FunnelVortex:



Will it interact with that?
I dont know. I will watch to see what happens.
Quoting 63. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I like Ore-Ida tater tots!
Right. That's funny, in a quasi-way.
Try to remember the Idas of September.

And if this storm was 5 days ago one could say, "Beware the Idas of September".
I wonder how much of a weakness TD 9 left for Ida.

Central Atlantic RGB Loop
Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:



Waiting to see the time frame drop. We're back to the same time frame as two days ago. So there's still a lot of uncertainty. Also, the models don't do much in terms of development keeping the low weak.

But a lot can and will change, but it's fun to watch the models none the less.

It's been quite a while since we've had a strong storm in the GOM.
yeah it is fun to watch,and I'm glad we'll have days with lil chance of rain this week, a lot of area's need that time to dry out from last week's deluge.
67. HurricaneHunterJoe
The San Diego forecasters must be getting giddy with all the rain we have had......look at these forecast amounts the next couple days. A lot of times the rain fails to show up with this trof/southern moisture surge and it ends up off to the east.......we will know very soon how it turns out.

Them are some nice numbers, 1.17 here, every little inch counts....
Center being covered now....

Convection nearing the center..Maybe a strengthening T.S.



Quoting 80. FunnelVortex:

Center being covered now....


If this continues during D-Min, could have a little outflow channel...Edit..I meant D Max...My bad.

Quoting 82. hydrus:

If this continues during D-Min, could have a little outflow channel...




You mean DMAX?
Quoting 33. LargoFl:

Euro and CMC put it into the LA area.............................................. ...............
It's actually almost directly on the MS/AL line. I'd take that storm as long as it didn't get deeper. Of course, it's the CMC, so it's not going to happen anyway.
Looks like Ida's shear has relaxed for now. She may build up some strength, but I doubt she will be of much concern to anyone.
Quoting 83. FunnelVortex:



You mean DMAX?
Yes I,m sorry, I meant D-Max...
Quoting 86. hydrus:

Yes I,m sorry, I meant D-Max...


It will be interesting to see what happens.
Quoting 79. PedleyCA:

67. HurricaneHunterJoe
The San Diego forecasters must be getting giddy with all the rain we have had......look at these forecast amounts the next couple days. A lot of times the rain fails to show up with this trof/southern moisture surge and it ends up off to the east.......we will know very soon how it turns out.

Them are some nice numbers, 1.17 here, every little inch counts....


I am hoping we get it Pedley........just seen too many times the moisture stream shifts east. But I am pulling for them to be right this time. Any rain would be welcome.
Dang Ped! Only 91 down here


Weather Conditions for:
Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport, CA. KRAL (NWS/FAA)
Elev: 814 ft; Latitude: 33.95139; Longitude: -117.45056

Current time: Sun, 20 Sep 4:26 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Sun, 20 Sep 3:53 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Visibility WX Clouds Sea Level Altimeter Station 6 Hr 6 Hr 24 Hr 24 Hr Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Pressure Setting Pressure Max Min Max Min Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph) (miles) (mb) (inches) (inches) Temp Temp Temp Temp
20 Sep 3:53 pm PDT 106 41 11 VRBL 3 10.00 CLR 1005.0 29.73 28.873 OK
I remember the days when if anything got into the GOM look out. There was no satellites back then only ship reports and a lot of barometer watching along the coasts. I guess this is a result of El Nino. What happened to global warming and more storms? Have the glaciers all melted? I'm just in a mood. Carry on!
Quoting 90. WindNoise:

I remember the days when if anything got into the GOM look out. There was no satellites back then only ship reports and a lot of barometer watching along the coasts. I guess this is a result of El Nino. What happened to global warming and more storms? Have the glaciers all melted? I'm just in a mood. Carry on!


When they said global warming would mean more storms, they meant more storms in general and not just hurricanes.
Quoting 91. hydrus:




Grabs popcorn
All 20 members show development in the Western Caribbean in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on and see if the time frame gets moved up. By the way how bout them Buccaneers today. Jameis Winston gets 1st NFL career victory and the defense looked great sacking Brees 3 times and forcing 2 fumbles.

Quoting 95. GTstormChaserCaleb:

All 20 members show development in the Western Caribbean in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on and see if the time frame gets moved up. By the way how bout them Buccaneers today. Jameis Winston gets 1st NFL career victory and the defense looked great sacking Brees 3 times and forcing 2 fumbles.




Who dat? Lol...
It does look like the ULL is trying to pull some of that tropical moisture into Soo Cal. Let's hope it goes according to plan.

Little convection dots showing up on the latest frames around the center

Quoting 95. GTstormChaserCaleb:

All 20 members show development in the Western Caribbean in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on and see if the time frame gets moved up. By the way how bout them Buccaneers today. Jameis Winston gets 1st NFL career victory and the defense looked great sacking Brees 3 times and forcing 2 fumbles.


Its covering a lot of water...I say sub tropical storm or hybrid. Way to early, but thats my guess.
Quoting 98. FunnelVortex:

Little convection dots showing up on the latest frames around the center


And heading for warmer water.

Quoting 100. hydrus:

And heading for warmer water.




I think we could get a hurricane out of this...
And I just noticed those new convection dots popping up look like the formation of feeder bands.
GO BUCS!
Quoting 95. GTstormChaserCaleb:

All 20 members show development in the Western Caribbean in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on and see if the time frame gets moved up. By the way how bout them Buccaneers today. Jameis Winston gets 1st NFL career victory and the defense looked great sacking Brees 3 times and forcing 2 fumbles.


Quoting 55. Invisabull:

2 points ... as a lurker I think it would be helpful is wu would put location besides each persons pseudonym ... also i observe the disparity of models and even the wildness of the spaghetti tracks ... is there anywhere that holds these models accountable by publishing the accuracy? ... my location is west central florida
The location thing has been suggested numerous times. So far, the reaction as been dead silence. There is a profile you can fill out that does have your location. If you click on my username, you'll see I live in SE Alabama.

All the models have verification pages that show how well they did compared to the actual storm. You can see some examples at the GFS page. You generally don't get much model verification until the end of the season. Really, even the verification for a good model doesn't mean it won't blow it on the next storm. When there's an invest, then pay attention. Until then, models are smoke and mirrors.
Quoting 101. FunnelVortex:



I think we could get a hurricane out of this...
I believe hurricane force winds on the east side, dont know if we can get a bona fide hurricane. She appears to be pulling together quite well, considering the environmental conditions.
Quoting 95. GTstormChaserCaleb:

All 20 members show development in the Western Caribbean in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on and see if the time frame gets moved up. By the way how bout them Buccaneers today. Jameis Winston gets 1st NFL career victory and the defense looked great sacking Brees 3 times and forcing 2 fumbles.


Well, the Browns won today, so anything's possible in the Gulf...
TPW's on the rise for Soo Cal! Let's see if the puzzle comes together.

Quoting 109. hydrus:




Looks like the LLC became less defined? Maybe it tucked under the new convection?
Quoting 110. hydrus:




By the looks of that map, Tucson and maybe Saguaro National Park may get good rain! Cool to see them Saguaro's ballon up after rainfall!
Could we please keep the humor and football talk at a minimum. This is a weather blog. You don't hear me complaining that the Giants lost two in a row, and Eli gets sacked more times than an Idaho potato.
115. JLPR2
Quoting 112. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Looks like the LLC became less defined? Maybe it tucked under the new convection?


Yep, at least for the moment it is.
Quoting 112. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Looks like the LLC became less defined? Maybe it tucked under the new convection?
Its under there. I think Ida will strengthen a little.
Quoting 84. sar2401:

It's actually almost directly on the MS/AL line. I'd take that storm as long as it didn't get deeper. Of course, it's the CMC, so it's not going to happen anyway.


Where does the GFS take the storm?
Quoting 116. Camerooski:

Well, my Dolphins lost to the Jaguars today. After everyone saying that the Dolphins were playoff bound, all the talk is over. The "amazing" defensive line played atrocious and didn't get one sack. And after 4 years of mediocrity I think Joe Philbin will finally get fired this year. #firePhilbin is trending on all platforms of social media lol. #firephilbin


I bolded all the parts of your comment that had to do with weather.
Quoting 116. Camerooski:

Well, my Dolphins lost to the Jaguars today. After everyone saying that the Dolphins were playoff bound, all the talk is over. The "amazing" defensive line played atrocious and didn't get one sack. And after 4 years of mediocrity I think Joe Philbin will finally get fired this year. #firePhilbin is trending on all platforms of social media lol. #firephilbin


Don't worry, my Ravens lost to the Ravens today, disappointing defense to blame..
Carolina Panthers, 2-0

That is all...
Tropical Storm IDA
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 21, 2015:

Location: 18.6°N 46.6°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
Quoting 121. ncstorm:

Carolina Panthers, 2-0

That is all...


Happily surprised to see the Bucs actually win today, I'll take any wins we can get, of which I expect there to be few, lol.
My soon to be Ex San Diego Chargers lost to Cincy Bengals.......Is Cincy any good? Philip Rivers broke "The Bearded One" TD Record today. If any don't know who The Bearded One is........he is Dan Fouts whose career was from 1973-1988. Sad to see the Chargers leaving!
You people can be funny!!!

Quoting 123. Jedkins01:



Happily surprised to see the Bucs actually win today, I'll take any wins we can get, of which I expect there to be few, lol.


All wins are tough in Pro Football.....take them any way you can get them!
Quoting 125. Grothar:

You people can be funny!!!




Not as funny nor savvy as you master!
Quoting 125. Grothar:

You people can be funny!!!




I am legendary in my own mind!
You can see outflow cirrus wisps starting to form

Quoting 123. Jedkins01:



Happily surprised to see the Bucs actually win today, I'll take any wins we can get, of which I expect there to be few, lol.


Tell me about it. Give me hope for one more week.
Quoting 126. HurricaneHunterJoe:



All wins are tough in Pro Football.....take them any way you can get them!


Isn't that the truth, lol.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 201908
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DESPITE SOME DRY
AIR ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO INITIATE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE ORIENTATION
AND PROGRESSION OF SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM INITIATION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A LARGE PLUME OF
DRY AIR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
MAY OCCUR ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CLOSING IN ON THE
REGION...THOUGH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WITH US MONDAY NIGHT
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WEAK
MID- LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
BULK OF ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS UNDER AN INCH OVER NORTH FLORIDA BUT CLOSER TO
2 INCHES AROUND TAMPA BAY AND POINTS SOUTH. SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENTS SUCH AS THESE ARE OFTEN THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP BEST SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON OUR SIDE OF THE
STATE...SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. WE WILL NOT
HAVE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN PLACE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS...JUST OUR TYPICAL NUISANCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME SORT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS...BUT INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&
Quoting 114. Grothar:

Could we please keep the humor and football talk at a minimum. This is a weather blog. You don't hear me complaining that the Giants lost two in a row, and Eli gets sacked more times than an Idaho potato.
Lol
Ida is developing outflow and the blog is inactive. Seems legit.
Oh well.....

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/

FRONTAL ZONE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RESPONSE. OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AND BECOME STEADY STATE TUESDAY
INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LOWER GULF AS FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO.
MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUMPING TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSTRICTION IN THE NORTH GULF OVER TIME. 24/RR

Hope this never gets Houston's attention.
Quoting 135. pureet1948:

Oh well.....

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/

FRONTAL ZONE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RESPONSE. OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AND BECOME STEADY STATE TUESDAY
INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LOWER GULF AS FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO.
MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUMPING TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSTRICTION IN THE NORTH GULF OVER TIME. 24/RR

Hope this never gets Houston's attention.


What if it get's Hustons?
Quoting 134. FunnelVortex:

Ida is developing outflow and the blog is inactive. Seems legit.


You're right. Convection has caught up with the center.

Quoting 137. Grothar:



You're right. Convection has caught up with the center.




Not only that, it is also developing those trademark wisps of cirrus indicating an outflow
139. vis0
As last night, its the Sat imagery of the Caribbean area i'm passing thru my filters.
Here a few thmbnails,
image host
image host
image host
image host
image host

for more (25 images uploaded so far, 7 have passed thru my funktopGal filters)

Here tonite's imgbox album::2015_IDA_TS_Sep20-21 (http://imgbox.com/g/Uz5o3IxJ8y)

As with the last few days, go there and copy n paste images to create your own animation. In this manner you can be relatively up to date with imagery that better presents low cloud formation & movement

As to my WxOpinion::  Close to "home" i'm watching weather in the Atlantic Basin, near the Bahamas and Antilles crown. Watching if the ULL wraps moisture back southward. Specially the pTwF (IDA, disturbances and any other plume of moisture) the ULL captures in its youthful, growing spin.

Anyone notice these LOWs are about 2 times closer to each other than what the observe record of the satellite era states they should be while STILL maintaining an independent rotation. But place them far apart (just outside the "majeekal" area...inside comment) and since 2009/2010 TS in the ATL look anything but spiral (more like Rorschach tests) ...psst remember this nut sez of the next 4-5 yrs, 2 will have amazing spirals and 1.3 look like 2005, don't tell anyone yall ruin natures' surprise.
Did i just committed electronic Harakiri?, since a fan of psychology that posts on WxU stated yesterday i committed e-suicide.

Fridays imgbox Album on the SE LOW (96L) will be deleted Monday morning, in case anyone wants to dwnld those images.
Quoting 138. FunnelVortex:



Not only that, it is also developing those trademark wisps of cirrus indicating an outflow


It's not caught up to the LLC...it's the high cloud tops as shear lessens somewhat
Quoting 140. scottsvb:



It's not caught up to the LLC...it's the high cloud tops as shear lessens somewhat


Look again

Except for Ida, the tropics are dead tonight. Only god knows what the next 5-weeks will bring to what so far has been an un- eventful Hurricane Season.
Quoting 124. HurricaneHunterJoe:

My soon to be Ex San Diego Chargers lost to Cincy Bengals.......Is Cincy any good? Philip Rivers broke "The Bearded One" TD Record today. If any don't know who The Bearded One is........he is Dan Fouts whose career was from 1973-1988. Sad to see the Chargers leaving!
Cincy is a playoff team the past few seasons. Has it been made official yet that the Chargers are leaving? It would be sad to see them go, Qualcomm Stadium is such a nice stadium. It's where the Bucs won their Superbowl in 2003. Phillip Rivers is a good QB, he just doesn't have the targets he used to have down the field and they haven't found a RB to replace LT. Hopefully, they'll stay in San Diego.
Quoting 142. HurriHistory:

Except for Ida, the tropics are dead tonight. Only god knows what the next 5-weeks will bring to what so far has been an un- eventful Hurricane Season.


not really you for get too add TD 16E in the E PAC and TD 5C in the C PAC so the troics are not really dead
Quoting 142. HurriHistory:

Except for Ida, the tropics are dead tonight. Only god knows what the next 5-weeks will bring to what so far has been an un- eventful Hurricane Season.


If this track plays out, the answer may very well be Ida, Ida, and more Ida.

Quoting 136. FunnelVortex:



What if it get's Hustons?


Then Houston would be in the error cone, or potential track of whatever does form in the lower gulf, I would think.
Quoting 141. FunnelVortex:



Look again




I agree with Scott, the thunderstorms are still to the east of the center. The anvils are stretching over the center, which gives a false illusion. Maybe in a few more hours if the thunderstorms persist.
Quoting 147. Astrometeor:



I agree with Scott, the thunderstorms are still to the east of the center. The anvils are stretching over the center, which gives a false illusion. Maybe in a few more hours if the thunderstorms persist.


Perhaps this will show it better

And this outflow is a singature of organization.

Quoting 145. FunnelVortex:



If this track plays out, the answer may very well be Ida, Ida, and more Ida.




Something is supposed to stop Ida dead in her tracks in the next couple days. I wonder if whatever that something is will be strong enough to kill her?
151. JLPR2
Quoting 149. FunnelVortex:

And this outflow is a singature of organization.




Shear is blowing the tops of convection to the north on the dry west side of the system so I'm not sure this is going to last.
I guess it's a wait and see situation.
Quoting 151. JLPR2:



Shear is blowing the tops of convection to the north on the dry west side of the system so I'm not sure this is going to last.
I guess it's a wait and see situation.


Why is everyone doubting? This has been lasting for a while already
Quoting 150. K8eCane:



Something is supposed to stop Ida dead in her tracks in the next couple days. I wonder if whatever that something is will be strong enough to kill her?


No, it's a lack of steering currents. So, there's just nothing around to push or pull her any one way.

Quoting 148. FunnelVortex:



Perhaps this will show it better




Still no, I'm using my cursor to track the center. That last burst seems to be to the SE of the center, with the anvil clouds just tenuously stretching over the center of circulation.
Quoting 153. Astrometeor:



No, it's a lack of steering currents. So, there's just nothing around to push or pull her any one way.



Still no, I'm using my cursor to track the center. That last burst seems to be to the SE of the center, with the anvil clouds just tenuously stretching over the center of circulation.


Your cursor is not exactly the best tool
Quoting 152. FunnelVortex:



Why is everyone doubting? This has been lasting for a while already


The Atlantic and carribbean have been such cyclone busters this year so far
i dont know how to spell caribbean, carribean? OMG
Oh well, as long as Grothar agrees with me :)

No, it's a lack of steering currents. So, there's just nothing around to push or pull her any one way.


Astrometeor that should be interesting. I dont think we've dealt with it yet this season

89. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:27 PM GMT on September 20, 2015

Dang Ped! Only 91 down here

It was only 99.5 at my place..
Hey guys can someone help me out here i am very interested when i look at the models most reliable models show a storm developing in the gulf around hour 240. Can someone tell me if their is projected to be alot of shear, because the shear has been strong in the gulf this year so far
BAROCLINIC FORCES HAVE CAUSE ME TO CONTEMPL
Ida's center is finally covered by convection. Wind shear should decrease throughout the day today, so some organization wouldn't be surprising. Upper-level winds should become unfavorable once again tomorrow though.

After 72 hours or so, indications are that the environment should become conducive for steady strengthening. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Doesn't look like a threat to land, but it should at least help out in the ACE department.
Quoting 147. Astrometeor:



I agree with Scott, the thunderstorms are still to the east of the center. The anvils are stretching over the center, which gives a false illusion. Maybe in a few more hours if the thunderstorms persist.
The Center is under the convection for the first time in her history, some strengthening as forecast is possible, how, where is heading, what is going to happened , that's the question....
Quoting 164. Grothar:




Ah yes. Nice and circular.
Quoting 155. K8eCane:



The Atlantic and carribbean have been such cyclone busters this year so far
i dont know how to spell caribbean, carribean? OMsoG
Since it is a proper name, with capital letter to begin with, the Caribbean sea in English, "El Caribe" in our beloved Spanish language. Actually, I think kind of an interesting season, since we were expecting much less action. Even though, "that ''El Nino" has been strong, and is doing a great job destroying everything from the eastern Atlantic, mother Africa has been quite prolific this year...
Quoting 156. FunnelVortex:

Oh well, as long as Grothar agrees with me :)


I agree with me, too
168. vis0
More funktopGal filtered images::
image host
image host
plus 3 more at,
Tonite's imgbox album::2015_IDA_TS_Sep20-21 [http://imgbox.com/g/Uz5o3IxJ8y]

As with the last few days, go there and copy n paste images to create your own animation. In this manner you can be relatively up to date with imagery that better presents low cloud formation & movement
169. vis0
nap-time back in 3 hrs keep observing and stay safe
Quoting 160. James1981cane:

Hey guys can someone help me out here i am very interested when i look at the models most reliable models show a storm developing in the gulf around hour 240. Can someone tell me if their is projected to be alot of shear, because the shear has been strong in the gulf this year so far
240 hours, don't pay attention. They can even forecast with certainty, the future of an storm that is live and kicking In three days, like Ida for example...
I know I feel bad for them and have contributed funds.

That being said it's an isolated event......we are thirsty and our climate in the western Carib is becoming increasingly arid. I have lived here most of my life and simple shrubs tat never need water now do. We have palm trees that are dying....land crabs are all around my garden because I water.......we used to get rain here but it has stopped and not just the year but years past. The climate is hotter and drier so we need to adapt.....the Caribbean basin will be Dormant for years to come other tan a fluke regardless of el nino

Quoting 19. CaribBoy:



Except for Dominica...
Quoting 161. ElConando:

BAROCLINIC FORCES HAVE CAUSE ME TO CONTEMPL


Couldn't have said it better.
Hmph. Baja. Humbug.

Trust SoCal to bogart all the rain.

Hmph.
Quoting 147. Astrometeor:



I agree with Scott, the thunderstorms are still to the east of the center. The anvils are stretching over the center, which gives a false illusion. Maybe in a few more hours if the thunderstorms persist.



Yep, like nearly every time we get scattered convection with large anvils in FL throughout the summer, which is every day, we always get the token blogger who sees the infrared satellite and says "Wow it should be pouring here according to this, there's a big red blob over Central FL but not a drop is making it to the ground at my house the forecast sucks!"

And then, someone has to remind them it's just cold high thunderstorm tops spreading out in the upper atmosphere, and that actual thunderstorm cells are much small and that because it's summer in Florida, there's no such thing as thunderstorm virga, and two, because, well it's how convection works.

The worst is when the same blogger will come back and keep saying the same thing without ever wanting to learn.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 210246
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015

...IDA SHOWING NEW SIGNS OF LIFE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 47.0W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 47.0 West. Ida is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest with a substantial decrease in forward speed is
expected on Monday, followed by a slow meandering motion on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, followed
by little change in strength after that.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
The GFS showing something developing in the western carribean in 8 days we need to watch this
177. 882MB
Looks like shear is now starting to slow down some on Ida. If you look closely, at the satellite loop below, Ida is starting to get trapped between 2 ULL's, which is a very conducive environment for intensification. I truly wont be surprised if we do get a major out of Ida, or If conditions warrant, for rapid intensification, or "RI", how we all know it. This is a very beautiful and interesting Atlantic storm to track. I have a "gut" feeling this might be a major, and a very pretty one at that, out there in the Atlantic. Thankfully Ida will not be bothering anyone for now, as models and steering currents have her stationary for the next week or so out in the open ocean. Over here in PR, and the rest of the Caribbean we need rain desperately, but In the last month or so, we have had some nice rainfall amount's in certain areas, enough to slow down some of the rationing, in some areas over here in PR. Though this rain has not been enough to stop this drought, I can honestly say, I'm blessed when I just see a drop of water fall from the sky. Well I'm Going to bed, Goodnight WU family, and Blessings. :)


Quoting 144. Tazmanian:



not really you for get too add TD 16E in the E PAC and TD 5C in the C PAC so the troics are not really dead


Was talking about the tropical Atlantic only. I live in Florida so I really have very little interest in what goes on over in the Pacific. Most of those storms are fish storms anyway.
IDA might have a new center developing under the convection, also?
The models are consistent on a low pressure possibly a weak to moderate tropical storm developing in the gulf of mexico next week.
One side effect of El Nino is making its presence felt in the Indian Ocean now, which is likely to lead to drought conditions in Australia and South Asia.

182. 882MB
Quoting 182. 882MB:




In just my opinion that is a very scary sight headed for the deserts of the southwest. This El Nio is in full swing. Lack of atl tropical activity, sst's in 3.4 region, historical records broken in pacific, amazing amount of tropical moisture into southwest up until this newest weather event. I'm hoping for a verrrry cold and wet winter with a lot of snow. I think a benchmark statistic will be if the ski resorts have a long and plentiful ski season this winter throughout California and the western U.S.. I hope for good weather for all who need it!! Cheers!!!
Quoting 141. FunnelVortex:



Look again




Has it nudged to the right some?
Quoting 184. Trouper415:



In just my opinion that is a very scary sight headed for the deserts of the southwest. This El Ni�o is in full swing. Lack of atl tropical activity, sst's in 3.4 region, historical records broken in pacific, amazing amount of tropical moisture into southwest up until this newest weather event. I'm hoping for a verrrry cold and wet winter with a lot of snow. I think a benchmark statistic will be if the ski resorts have a long and plentiful ski season this winter throughout California and the western U.S.. I hope for good weather for all who need it!! Cheers!!!
Does look ominous. Hope people that live in that region pay attention to the latest forecasts. Many deaths from flash flooding a little north of where that system is headed.
Tropical Storm IDA
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 21, 2015:

Location: 19.5°N 47.2°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
Quoting 188. hydrus:



I think if this system develops it will get pushed towards the texas louisiana border
191. vis0
More funktopGal filtered images::
image host
plus 8 more at,
Tonite's imgbox album::2015_IDA_TS_Sep20-21

Direct URL is:: http://imgbox.com/g/Uz5o3IxJ8y

As with the last few days, go there and copy n paste images to create your own animation. In this manner you can be relatively up to date with imagery that better presents low cloud formation & movement

Fish Storm?
image host
(NOT in the WxU member as to TS, sort of way...i think this is the umteenth similar image posted at WxU in the last 10 yrs.)
Im thinking that ULL 600 miles west of Baja is NOT behaving as forecast. Earlier models had the tropical low coming up the Colorado River Valley between Soo Cal and Arizona. Seems like the ULL is digging further south and west than forecast. Now looks like heaviest rains will be in Arizona and further east. Still hoping we get some here in Soo Cal. Maybe the daytime heating and limited instability will fire off some Thunderstorms Mon-Tues.

193. vis0
Instead of a pyro (Catherine spinning fireworks wheel), this is an Ida spinning "hydroworks" wheel...or.. [zilly]is this still Erica retrograding as an ULL[zilly]
Short Monday morning hello. Looks like a flashflood day for some folks in the world. In Europe Greece is affected:






Current precipitation and lightning in Greece, looking really dangerous! (Screenshot from wetteronline)

Mesoscale Discussion from Estofex, Valid: Mon 21 Sep 2015 08:00 to Mon 21 Sep 2015 14:00 UTC, Issued: Mon 21 Sep 2015 07:46, Forecaster: DAFIS
Serious flash floods are reported since the early morning hours of Monday in South Greece. CRR Instantaneous Precipitation Classes from SEVIRI satellite show convective rain rates of more than 50mm/h moving towards Attica, Athens where a nasty flash flood is forecast the next 3 hours. The local radars show reflectivity signatures of 60 dBz within this MCS that slowly moves E - NE. The following 6 hours, a quasi-stationary front will form in Central Greece where sustain influx of very unstable air masses from the Aegean Sea (SST >28C) will result in more flash floods and hail.
DLS according high resolution models exceeds the 20m/s locally and SREH 0-3km has values up to 350m2/s2. The last soundings from nearest stations at 00z show also a mid level dry intrusion, so severe wind gusts are also forecast.


Lightning live in Greece.
199. vis0
Quoting 53. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thank you for the update Dr Masters!

Say hello to TD #16E........supposed to cross Baja Peninsula tonight. Wonder how much further north it comes before doing so? The longer it stays west, the better the rain chances for Soo Cal. Looks like Arizona will get pounded either way.


Special 2 fer1 (thank you to HurricaneHunterJoe cmmnt#53 of this blogbyte for bringing it to our attn) pTwF**
Some activity in the USofA's SW.
Go to this imgbox Album "2015_ePAC-SW_Sep20-21" and create your own animation from the sequential SAT images filtered through funktopGal filters.
here a few thmbnails,
image host
image host
image host
image host

**For those that ever read or ignored my now gone blogbytes.
positive Tropical weather Formation - (not an official acronyms)see my zilly pg3 cmmnt#128 for a slight explanation. (slight as in not my 30 pg detailede explanation)
201. vis0
Some activity in the USofA's SW.
Go to this imgbox Album "2015_ePAC-SW_Sep20-21" and create your own animation from the sequential SAT images filtered through funktopGal filters.
Uploaded 6 more img, here a few MORE thmbnails.
image host
image host
image host
202. vis0
Lets see which one i'm i doing now IDa,Sw,Japanese site??? (so confusing...quick post kitten image with confuzd caption)
More funktopGal filtered images::
image host

Tonite's imgbox album::2015_IDA_TS_Sep20-21

okay IDA
Direct URL is:: http://imgbox.com/g/Uz5o3IxJ8y
4 more uploaded.
As with the last few days, go there and copy n paste images to create your own animation. In this manner you can be relatively up to date with imagery that better presents low cloud formation & movement

...phych major am i luved NOW?
203. vis0
ここでは、ENSO(w)西プルームを持って ます。

oh wait...
Some activity in the USofA's SW.
Go to this imgbox Album "2015_ePAC-SW_Sep20-21" and create your own animation from the sequential SAT images filtered through funktopGal filters.
Uploaded 3 more img, here a thmbnails of 1.

image host

206. vis0
will some1 else post something so it doesn't look like i'm talking to myself...
(SOME OF THE FOLLOWING COMMENT DOES NOT REPRESENT WxU, just a nuts theories)
More funktopGal filtered images::
posting these 2 in FULL size
image host
image host
...lookie here...(remember my nutty theory (not always visible to the physical dimension, but this last 2 months wxtrend it is) NE busy majeekal lets go of push-pulling energies as to its settings, TS (warm core Lows under the ml-d)  can blossom more as expected, see how clouds are heading over the NE USofA) ON the negative side(as to TS development), now that the ml-d is busy with lower pressures closer to it (~nyc) , IDA and all spins under the ml-d AOI or just outside will suddenly feel each others influence at a 2times rate so lets see which LOW gives...watch out for floods in the SW, even more than Dr. Masters stated)

Even the dead TDist. near the ULL is puffing a bit AND so close to each other to stay independent as to their lower spin, since there has to be a physics correlation i say the shear is rising i height leaving low level spins alone for now..."2WkAnom" begins later this week Oh boy...([joke]sorry[joke] ncstorm)...Oh girl

Tonite's imgbox album::2015_IDA_TS_Sep20-21
(http://imgbox.com/g/Uz5o3IxJ8y)
2 more ^ last for this AM uploaded.
As with the last few days, go there and copy n paste images to create your own animation. In this manner you can be relatively up to date with imagery that better presents low cloud formation & movement




...ya darn toot-in)talking to myself : - P).
Tonites ePAC funktopGal is now stopped,. am hungry breakfast calls...collect....busy signal...oh i'm already eating my cap n crunch burrito...
Update to post #198 about severe weather hitting Greece right now (with a first fatality reported; edit: two fatalities of lightning):



Major damage and problems caused by the tornado which occurred at dawn in Lakonia, Skala area. Hit the south side of the city, dismantled roofs of houses, overturned several cars, uprooted trees and shattered branches. ... Four people were slightly injured ... Elsewhere, in Salamis, a woman died (edit: now a second fatality of lightning strike is reported).
Source with photo gallery of the tornado damage.



Although the system probably won't develop as a medicane (tropical storm in the Mediterranean) due to interaction with land (here a GFS phase diagram showing a symmetric cold-cored system), there is currently a structure that reminds of an eyewall over Peleponnese:


(Here a rgb sat pic of the same "pinhole" feature.) BTW, the storms now reach out for the coast of Turkey where a lot of refugees try to reach an European (Greek) island by some nutshells.

Yesterday this system hit southern Italy (Fasano):


Have to go; maybe see you later. Good luck to Greece (including the refugees who should not venture out to the sea now!), Mexico and SoCal with the rains!
wow.ida
Quoting 202. vis0:

Lets see which one i'm i doing now IDa,Sw,Japanese site??? (so confusing...quick post kitten image with confuzd caption)
More funktopGal filtered images::
image host

Tonite's imgbox album::2015_IDA_TS_Sep20-21

okay IDA
Direct URL is:: http://imgbox.com/g/Uz5o3IxJ8y
4 more uploaded.
As with the last few days, go there and copy n paste images to create your own animation. In this manner you can be relatively up to date with imagery that better presents low cloud formation & movement

...phych major am i luved NOW?





Tell me, do you feel loved?
The sooner you can love yourself, the sooner we can cut back on therapy.
I do love your funktop filter.
210. IKE
Watching models for possible GOM development for late weekend into next week.
Good morning, Ike. Nice to 'see' you. The plus was for you---not the message! Then trust you to keep us informed without a bunch of hype;-)
Quoting 210. IKE:

Watching models for possible GOM development for late weekend into next week.


Hey Ike. Great to see ya! I think you'd better watch because its the time to.
215. IKE
Been watching for 2-3 days. Looks like several models are on board.
all these deformed blobs that have no potential is quite sad. :( el nino has destroyed the atlantic basin. we can't even get a decent cat 1 or 2 to develop in such hostile conditions.
all these deformed blobs that have no potential is quite sad. :( el nino has destroyed the atlantic basin. we can't even get a decent cat 1 or 2 to develop in such hostile conditions.
all these deformed blobs that have no potential is quite sad. :( el nino has destroyed the atlantic basin. we can't even get a decent cat 1 or 2 to develop in such hostile conditions.
Quoting 215. IKE:

Been watching for 2-3 days. Looks like several models are on board.


I know, I have seen them too. Son in Long Beach MS---had open heart surgery just 3 weeks ago with complications. Just please NOT now. Then never is a time----
220. IKE
Noticed the GFS was stronger on the 6z run. ECMWF is weaker and further west. CMC further west. Yeah I know it's a week from happening. Wait and watch.
Quoting 220. IKE:

Noticed the GFS was stronger on the 6z run. ECMWF is weaker and further west. CMC further west. Yeah I know it's a week from happening. Wait and watch.



I pay more attention to them when more than one are on board like that. The season has been amazing in its own way thus far
It's the back and forth that tears on ya. Just watch and wait I know---got hurry now --get car in for service.
Quoting 220. IKE:

Noticed the GFS was stronger on the 6z run. ECMWF is weaker and further west. CMC further west. Yeah I know it's a week from happening. Wait and watch.
I am surprised that they are moving further west, usually storms move towards the FLA Peninsula during October... ie: Wilma
Quoting 222. Tigerosee:

It's the back and forth that tears on ya. Just watch and wait I know---got hurry now --get car in for service.


Prayers with your son! Things will work out regardless of the weather
Quoting 223. Camerooski:

I am surprised that they are moving further west, usually storms move towards the FLA Peninsula during October... ie: Wilma


Dont forget if they point at an area this far out, that area is probably safe. Or something like that
2015 season heats up. gfs 1 week s.cen gulf, for a second while looking at the model i assumed it was cmc.. no it was gfs
227. IKE
True. A model will flip around. Especially in a weeks time.
Nino 3.4 hovering @ 2.3C. What did happen on this week's update is the sharp rise in Nino 1&2 which is now up to 2.6C.

16SEP2015 23.0 2.6 27.6 2.7 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.1
Quoting 210. IKE:

Watching models for possible GOM development for late weekend into next week.


Lots of heat in the Gulf. Whether the Euro or GFS pans out is in question with regards to surface low placement but what both are showing is a tremendous influx of tropical moisture across the FL Penisula. So expect more heavy rains across areas that have been waterlogged recently.



all these deformed blobs that have no potential is quite sad. :( el nino has destroyed the atlantic basin. we can't even get a decent cat 1 or 2 to develop in such hostile conditions.
Quoting 196. Starhopper:




It's coming right at us!
If you weigh out all the nino indices right now we are stronger with this El-Nino than this sametime in 1997. This 2015 El-Nino has been putting on a show!
Quoting 230. robert88:

all these deformed blobs that have no potential is quite sad. :( el nino has destroyed the atlantic basin. we can't even get a decent cat 1 or 2 to develop in such hostile conditions.


Even the Gulf system later this weekend looks to be sheared as well. However this system will be moving north with shear coming in from the south so its effects should be lessened and we could have a stronger system than some think.

Look at how expansive the 3C to 4C anomalies have gotten. WOW! This should shut the door on all this noise of a Modiki El-Nino that JB keeps harping on.

Quoting 231. Icantthinkofausernam:



It's coming right at us!


It sure looks like all the models are on crack.

Interesting cyclogenesis over Greece. If this happened over open water ...
Source for update.
Radar wetteronline (clouds).
From Mike's Weather Page on facebook...



Here's a link to the 6Z GFS run out to 180 hours...

gfs 2015092106 Forecast 850vort Java Animation
Quoting 237. GeoffreyWPB:

From Mike's Weather Page on facebook...




All this is a result of a monster ridge over the Northern US. Like i said in my blog enjoy the nice weather while its here as major changes are coming across FL yet again.

Anytime you see heights that high in SEPT/OCT look to the south for tropical trouble as moisture piles up across the Gulf & SE US.

Nearly every GFS ensemble member develops a Gulf system. That's impressive folks!



Quoting 239. StormTrackerScott:

Nearly every GFS ensemble member develops a Gulf system. That's impressive folks!




Anywhere in the Gulf should pay attention, even the E Coast of FL, could always go through the peninsula like Charley or Wilma...
Quoting 237. GeoffreyWPB:

From Mike's Weather Page on facebook...



Here's a link to the 6Z GFS run out to 180 hours...

gfs 2015092106 Forecast 850vort Java Animation
It looks like it shows a strong system head east in last frame... Florida?
Quoting 240. Camerooski:

Anywhere in the Gulf should pay attention, even the E Coast of FL, could always go through the peninsula like Charley or Wilma...


I don't think we have to worry about a strong system. Maybe something more like TS Debby from 2012. A sloppy system east weighted system.



241. Out to 204 hours...

244. vis0

Quoting 209. K8eCane:





Tell me, do you feel loved?
The sooner you can love yourself, the sooner we can cut back on therapy.
I do love your funktop filter.
reply at my zilly pg, cmmnt#129
Funktop filter thanks you...me i'm still thinking...
Quoting 242. StormTrackerScott:



I don't think we have to worry about a strong system. Maybe something more like TS Debby from 2012. A sloppy system east weighted system.




You never know with the Gulf, those bath water SST are always dangerous, the shear levels can always drop in a week...
Quoting 241. Camerooski:

It looks like it shows a strong system head east in last frame... Florida?

Where? The GFS? ECMWF? GEM? These models are not indicating a strong system. ECMWF and GEM show a weak system, GFS slightly stronger. One or two isobars around a L does not usually indicate a strong system.
Quoting 219. Tigerosee:



I know, I have seen them too. Son in Long Beach MS---had open heart surgery just 3 weeks ago with complications. Just please NOT now. Then never is a time----
Thoughts and prayers to you and your son on a full and healthy recovery, Tigerosee. These things are never easy, I have had some friends and relatives who have had that surgery and bypass, it takes a while to recover, but they are all doing well now. Best of luck. Have a great week all.

Here is some tips and advice from webmd that may hopefully be of some use to you:
Helping a Loved One Recover From Heart Surgery
Quoting 219. Tigerosee:



I know, I have seen them too. Son in Long Beach MS---had open heart surgery just 3 weeks ago with complications. Just please NOT now. Then never is a time----


Good luck buddy and I will pray for a speedy recovery.
Quoting 239. StormTrackerScott:

Nearly every GFS ensemble member develops a Gulf system. That's impressive folks!




Remember it is just one run and the next run can go from showing nothing, besides we don't even have a disturbance to track yet, just something to keep an eye on, but we remember what happened last year. I will say though when all the models are on board, I start paying attention for signs of lowering pressure and the changes in the atmosphere.
Quoting 249. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Remember it is just one run and the next run can go from showing nothing, besides we don't even have a disturbance to track yet, just something to keep an eye on, but we remember what happened last year. I will say though when all the models are on board, I start paying attention for signs of lowering pressure and the changes in the atmosphere.
They have all been on board for 4 days now...
Quoting 246. sporteguy03:


Where? The GFS? ECMWF? GEM? These models are not indicating a strong system. ECMWF and GEM show a weak system, GFS slightly stronger. One or two isobars around a L does not usually indicate a strong system.
A Tropical storm.
Ida really did find a sweet spot...

We've got an H in the cone now...

Quoting 250. Camerooski:

They have all been on board for 4 days now...

All of the models are showing a broad system, GFS maybe slightly stronger. Showing a weak closed low in the Gulf of Mexico is nothing to be too impressed with. Until something is there to track I would hardly take the models as gospel a week out.
255. FOREX
Quoting 245. Camerooski:

You never know with the Gulf, those bath water SST are always dangerous, the shear levels can always drop in a week...
Water temp here at Panama City Beach has dropped to 82.
Quoting 250. Camerooski:

They have all been on board for 4 days now...
Quoting 251. Camerooski:

A Tropical storm.

Look at the pressure though 1006 MB is not a strong system, a tropical storm sure, but nothing to get crazy over, of course Tropical Storms can cause problems but let us not get too far ahead when there is nothing to track yet.
Quoting 256. sporteguy03:


Look at the pressure though 1006 MB is not a strong system, a tropical storm sure, but nothing to get crazy over, of course Tropical Storms can cause problems but let us not get too far ahead when there is nothing to track yet.


When you think about it almost everything can cause problems.
The Caribbean/Gulf potential is still in the "watch and wait" timeframe. 6-7 days out is long range in my book, especially this season. It's certainly the best model agreement we've seen all year, with the GFS, ECMWF, and most of their ensembles on board. If I had to guess, we'll probably get the usual solution of the past few years when we see something like this- moisture increases in the western Caribbean, which will be good news for them, but development is slow to happen if at all. As Scott said, maybe a sloppy TD/TS could form, but that'll be beside the point.

Meanwhile, Ida is trying- increased convection is always a positive- but it's still feeling the shear. This is a few hours old, but I doubt much has changed.

Quoting 257. FunnelVortex:



When you think about it almost everything can cause problems.

Of course, you can trip heading out the door or get stung by a bee. Why worry about models though a week out when there is nothing to track as of now or even in the 5 day outlook by the NHC.
Quoting 259. sporteguy03:


Of course, you can trip heading out the door or get stung by a bee. Why worry about models though a week out when there is nothing to track as of now or even in the 5 day outlook by the NHC.


Uh...because there's not much else to talk about on the tropical blog right now? I was happy to see something show up in the models that showed some potential. Not that I'm boarding up the house yet, but analyzing and tracking future and current systems is the reason most come on here for, right?
Quoting 256. sporteguy03:


Look at the pressure though 1006 MB is not a strong system, a tropical storm sure, but nothing to get crazy over, of course Tropical Storms can cause problems but let us not get too far ahead when there is nothing to track yet.

And if you had experience with the models, you would know that the pressures are usually off by 5-10 mb....
So it could be stronger than predicted or weaker
Good Morning. No tropical threats to the US on the Atlantic side of the ball this week and here is the blob on the West coast straddling the US-Mexican border:

Quoting 258. MAweatherboy1:

The Caribbean/Gulf potential is still in the "watch and wait" timeframe. 6-7 days out is long range in my book, especially this season. It's certainly the best model agreement we've seen all year, with the GFS, ECMWF, and most of their ensembles on board. If I had to guess, we'll probably get the usual solution of the past few years when we see something like this- moisture increases in the western Caribbean, which will be good news for them, but development is slow to happen if at all. As Scott said, maybe a sloppy TD/TS could form, but that'll be beside the point.

Meanwhile, Ida is trying- increased convection is always a positive- but it's still feeling the shear. This is a few hours old, but I doubt much has changed.




Shear will be too high to get a formidable system. Looking like as you and I have said a sloppy system coming which has been the case the last several years with Gulf systems. One has to wonder with all these under cutting troughs and cut off lows over the south if this Strong El-Nino pattern is beginning to take shape.
264. IKE
My guess is the NHC starts mentioning it soon.
Quoting 249. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Remember it is just one run and the next run can go from showing nothing, besides we don't even have a disturbance to track yet, just something to keep an eye on, but we remember what happened last year. I will say though when all the models are on board, I start paying attention for signs of lowering pressure and the changes in the atmosphere.


Couldn't agree more. Your right we may see nothing form which wouldn't surprise me. What I do see though is a sharp increase in moisture across FL later this week as a trough deepening over the Gulf. Its this deepening trough that causes pressures to lower in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 264. IKE:

My guess is the NHC starts mentioning it soon.


Good morning IKE! Nice to see u on again.
267. IKE
Next named Atlantic system is Joaquin.
268. IKE
Hello to any/all. ***waiting on 12Z models***
Quoting 267. IKE:

Next named Atlantic system is Joaquin.


and after that......KATE! Watch out
Quoting 268. IKE:

Hello to any/all. ***waiting on 12Z models***

Hello how r u
hopefully the next storm in the Caribbean/ gulf will be the J storm because i sure don't want the K name storm no where in the gulf! If you know what i mean.
Quoting 271. bigwes6844:

hopefully the next storm in the Caribbean/ gulf will be the J storm because i sure don't want the K name storm no where in the gulf! If you know what i mean.

Can we say Katrina on here????
Quoting 267. IKE:

Next named Atlantic system is Joaquin.
pronounced, Jo-kin.?
Quoting 261. tiggerhurricanes2001:


And if you had experience with the models, you would know that the pressures are usually off by 5-10 mb....
So it could be stronger than predicted or weaker


Quite aware of that. I do have experience with the models, but again there is nothing to track yet. Just something to watch.
Quoting 273. hydrus:

pronounced, Jo-kin.?


Wa-king
276. IKE
Quoting 270. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Hello how r u
Doing well! Hope you are too!
Quoting 260. fmbill:



Uh...because there's not much else to talk about on the tropical blog right now? I was happy to see something show up in the models that showed some potential. Not that I'm boarding up the house yet, but analyzing and tracking future and current systems is the reason most come on here for, right?

You missed my point then. I did not say to not talk about it, talk about it all you want. I was trying to point out to Camerooski that is far too early to discuss a strong system or any comparisons to Wilma or any other major hurricane.
Quoting 268. IKE:

Hello to any/all. ***waiting on 12Z models***

Welcome back Ike! Missed not hearing from Defuniak Springs.
279. IKE
Quoting 278. sporteguy03:


Welcome back Ike! Missed not hearing from Defuniak Springs.
Weathers been dry here for couple of weeks.
Some are saying why watch something that far out on the models. It's like asking why we are on this site. Its a (tropical) weather blog. I dont know about anyone else, but heres why I watch. First of all people are fascinating. Secondly, weather is fascinating. Theres just something about anticipating how it will all turn out. After it all plays out, I find it interesting to sit back and say " so thats how it was destined to turn out....because I am such a believer in destiny.
Sometimes, I get a few panic attacks if I think my area (NC) is going to get smacked. Thats because im a single mom and dont need the headache that comes with it. But that doesnt stop me from being fascinated by it.
Sorry about the blank space. I got messed up because my cat insists on walking across my keyboard. She is jealous
Quoting 271. bigwes6844:

hopefully the next storm in the Caribbean/ gulf will be the J storm because i sure don't want the K name storm no where in the gulf! If you know what i mean.


And the K storm happens to me KATE this year of all names.

Accumulated precipitation forecast by Euro4 for the western Mediterranean until Wednesday. Wow.
Source.
Quoting 283. FunnelVortex:



And the K storm happens to me KATE this year of all names.
Yep..My avatar is of Kate..I remember the 1985 Hurricane Season very well...Its like everywhere I went, I was in the path of a hurricane or a gale.
10 years ago today was a day of pandemonium along the TX coast as Rita cranked into a Cat 5 Cane barreling thru the GOM. I remember it like it was yesterday, my parents had left early that morning and it was my dad's birthday and he was hollering at me for staying. Then at 4PM I left that day as it jumped to over 150mph and panic was settling in.

Quoting 286. hydrus:

Yep..My avatar is of Kate..I remember the 1985 Hurricane Season very well...Its like everywhere I went, I was in the path of a hurricane or a gale.


They must like you.
Quoting 280. K8eCane:

Some are saying why watch something that far out on the models. It's like asking why we are on this site. Its a (tropical) weather blog. I dont know about anyone else, but heres why I watch. First of all people are fascinating. Secondly, weather is fascinating. Theres just something about anticipating how it will all turn out. After it all plays out, I find it interesting to sit back and say " so thats how it was destined to turn out....because I am such a believer in destiny.
Sometimes, I get a few panic attacks if I think my area (NC) is going to get smacked. Thats because im a single mom and dont need the headache that comes with it. But that doesnt stop me from being fascinated by it.
Good morning Kate. Even with the Nino, this is the time of year when things form quick. I,m sure you know this. Always have a plan.
I was also on this blog as StormTop was too
Quoting 283. FunnelVortex:



And the K storm happens to me KATE this year of all names.


We will hope K8 is nothing like Katrina
Quoting 287. RitaEvac:

10 years ago today was a day of pandemonium along the TX coast as Rita cranked into a Cat 5 Cane barreling thru the GOM. I remember it like it was yesterday, my parents had left early that morning and it was my dad's birthday and he was hollering at me for staying. Then at 4PM I left that day as it jumped to over 150mph and panic was settling in.




And didn't it miss your area?
Quoting 291. K8eCane:



We will hope K8 is nothing like Katrina


Those first three letters...
Quoting 292. FunnelVortex:



And didn't it miss your area?


Yep, just tropical storm force winds was all
Quoting 289. hydrus:

Good morning Kate. Even with the Nino, this is the time of year when things form quick. I,m sure you know this. Always have a plan.


I always have found homegrowns to be dangerous mainly due to how quick and unexpectedly they go up.
296. vis0

Quoting 272. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Can we say Katrina on here????
i guess you can. i refer to K. but my guessing is we will possibly see the J storm if anything comes out of this potential system next week. And does anyone know of a bad J storm in the Atlantic in history? I cant think of none
Quoting 279. IKE:

Weathers been dry here for couple of weeks.


There's rain to our North in Bama, sure would be nice if it held together and made it to our area today.
Quoting 288. FunnelVortex:



They must like you.
No...I was moving around a lot. Great Lakes to the G.O.M.. Timing was also key..Gales were common in October over the lakes. By November it cold and stormy. September brought Gloria to the east coast. Just missed that, but whacked many up there. Gulf had Bob, Danny, Juan, Kate, and Elena....Storm year and bitterly cold.
Quoting 297. bigwes6844:

i guess you can. i refer to K. but my guessing is we will possibly see the J storm if anything comes out of this potential system next week. And does anyone know of a bad J storm in the Atlantic in history? I cant think of none

Jeanne 2004?
Quoting 301. sporteguy03:


Jeanne 2004?
Oh yeah I forgot about Jeanne in 04. Wow! That was a rough year for Florida too.
Quoting 253. FunnelVortex:

We've got an H in the cone now...


Thats a whole lot of S's together lol!!!
Yuma,AZ which is typically a very dry area is set to see a lot of rain this Winter. Should be very green there by next Spring.

Quoting 302. bigwes6844:

Oh yeah I forgot about Jeanne in 04. Wow! That was a rough year for Florida too.
Jeanne, Frances, Charley, and Ivan all for FLA...
Quoting 302. bigwes6844:

Oh yeah I forgot about Jeanne in 04. Wow! That was a rough year for Florida too.
Jeanne was a fricken nightmare.
Quoting 303. RitaEvac:






I don't think we will see a Rita next week. Hopefully not.
Quoting 300. hydrus:

No...I was moving around a lot. Great Lakes to the G.O.M.. Timing was also key..Gales were common in October over the lakes. By November it cold and stormy. September brought Gloria to the east coast. Just missed that, but whacked many up there. Gulf had Bob, Danny, Juan and Kate...Storm year and bitterly cold.


Yeah, we do get gales up here in the lake states. We call them the Gales of November.

Often extratropical cyclones can be strengthened by the warmer lake SSTs. Sometimes we get very powerful ones. Like a few years ago we got one that produced sustained tropical force winds where I live, far inland and far from the lakes. And it caused a storm surge on Lake Michigan as well.

The warmer lake SSTs can also cause an extratropical cyclone to gravitate towards them causing them to slow over the lakes or stall completley. I can recall a few times this has happened.

The Gales of November can be unpredictable. As with all upper Midwest weather.

However, they have become stronger and more frequent in recent years due to warming lake SSTs.
Quoting 306. Camerooski:

Jeanne, Frances, Charley, and Ivan all for FLA...
and was that a somewhat el nino year?


Lots of storm coverage in Alabama.
Quoting 262. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. No tropical threats to the US on the Atlantic side of the ball this week and here is the blob on the West coast straddling the US-Mexican border:





lol that blob is TD 16E or sould i say soon too be fourmer TD 16E
314. IKE
Quoting 297. bigwes6844:

i guess you can. i refer to K. but my guessing is we will possibly see the J storm if anything comes out of this potential system next week. And does anyone know of a bad J storm in the Atlantic in history? I cant think of none


Juan?
Quoting 310. bigwes6844:

and was that a somewhat el nino year?
NOAA officially called a Nino on September -10th that year....Wouldnt know that with the 15 named storms we had. Nino had not made the ocean / atmospheric connection yet.
Quoting 314. IKE:



Juan?

Quoting 314. IKE:



Juan?
Yep. Nasty cat-1 that beat the you know what out of a huge swath of the gulf coast.
Quoting 317. Patrap:



I wuz gonna say..Ask Pat about it..:).Edit..Which reminds me, I forgot Elena, which was a forecast hellion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/

FRONTAL ZONE TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT WITH GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RESPONSE. OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AND BECOME STEADY STATE TUESDAY
INTO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LOWER GULF AS FRONTOLYTIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
POTENTIALLY UNDERGOES BAROTROPIC TRANSITION NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SOME
MODEL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO.



MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUMPING TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSTRICTION IN THE NORTH GULF OVER TIME. 24/RR


Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 85 mph (140 km/h)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa); 28.67 inHg

Fatalities 12 overall

Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
Areas affected Gulf Coast of the United States (especially Louisiana), central United States
Part of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season.

Quoting 309. FunnelVortex:



Yeah, we do get gales up here in the lake states. We call them the Gales of November.

Often extratropical cyclones can be strengthened by the warmer lake SSTs. Sometimes we get very powerful ones. Like a few years ago we got one that produced sustained tropical force winds where I live, far inland and far from the lakes. And it caused a storm surge on Lake Michigan as well.

The warmer lake SSTs can also cause an extratropical cyclone to gravitate towards them causing them to slow over the lakes or stall completley. I can recall a few times this has happened.

The Gales of November can be unpredictable. As with all upper Midwest weather.

However, they have become stronger and more frequent in recent years due to warming lake SSTs.
Yep.. we almost were killed there twice.
Quoting 318. hydrus:

Yep. Nasty cat-1 that beat the you know what out of a huge swath of the gulf coast.


Juan in 2003 hit Nova Scotia as a Cat-2
Quoting 311. tampabaymatt:




I'm sure it's welcome.

We might get some surf on the west coast of Florida for once.
Quoting 322. hydrus:

Yep.. we almost were killed there twice.


The Gales of November are known to cause coastal damage and can sink ships. Such as a certain ore freighter in Lake Superior which inspired a song.
Quoting 303. RitaEvac:








Lol at the white pickup truck.

"Nope, I think I'll just go back home."
Quoting 325. Sfloridacat5:

We might get some surf on the west coast of Florida for once.

That was funny...Gulf side kinda sux for avid surfers...Not 85 tho.
Quoting 326. FunnelVortex:



The Gales of November are known to cause coastal damage and can sink ships. Such as a certain ore freighter in Lake Superior which inspired a song.
Passed just south of the wreck and over many others. I also remember Harry Reasoner breaking the news about it.
Quoting 323. win1gamegiantsplease:



Juan in 2003 hit Newfoundland as a Cat-2
Both were candidates for retirement in my book.
Quoting 326. FunnelVortex:



The Gales of November are known to cause coastal damage and can sink ships. Such as a certain ore freighter in Lake Superior which inspired a song.

Ya, that ship was coming to Zug Island and we were short pellets that winter.
well at least the blogsite isnt catatonic anymore...we only have hurricane season once a year.
or i guess its better to say that hurricane season isnt year round and its my favorite time to be here.
Quoting 317. Patrap:



so juan 85, Jeanne 04 so far.
Quoting 329. hydrus:

Passed just south of the wreck and over many others. I also remember Harry Reasoner breaking the news about it.


But in the end the Gales of November and massive winter storms we get are just a fact of life up here. Those lakes are storm boosters.

The low doesn't have to be directly over the lakes either for it to feed off of their energy. It often intensifies as it comes in from the west or southwest and begins to tap into the lake's energy. But when it slows or stalls right over the lakes then it may bomb.

However, as the lake SSTs drop by late December/January and ice begins to form on the rims of the lakes, the storms cease. And we just get regular snowstorms for the rest of the winter until March when the lower level jet kicks in and winter storms get fueled that way.

I've always been fascinated by our weather here. Possibly more than tropical weather.
Quoting 330. hydrus:

Both were candidates for retirement in my book.


Darn, you quoted me before I could edit my post: Nova Scotia took the brunt of Juan, not Newfoundland.
Quoting 331. TroutMadness:


Ya, that ship was coming to Zug Island and we were short pellets that winter.
I remember passing Zug Island many times..That is a nasty stretch if river, especially at night, which seemed to happen every time. Only once do I remember passing it during the day. That August while passing through Detroit/Windsor, we were hit with a severe thunderstorm that caused damage in the area. A lot of lightening.
Should be exposed by this afternoon

Quoting 336. hydrus:

I remember passing Zug Island many times..That is a nasty stretch if river, especially at night, which seemed to happen every time. Only once do I remember passing it during the day. That August while passing through Detroit/Windsor, we were hit with a severe thunderstorm that caused damage in the area. A lot of lightening.

lol I spent 41 years working on that island, was once in the Guinness Book of World Records as the dirtiest square mile on earth lol. ( I can believe it) When that boat went down they didn't have enough capacity in the others to make up the difference before the close of shipping season.
Nearly four years after Hazel, NC got a pretty big scare. Cat-4 Helene brushed the coast and never made landfall on September 27, 1958.




edit: really screwing up my history today
Quoting 334. FunnelVortex:



But in the end the Gales of November and massive winter storms we get are just a fact of life up here. Those lakes are storm boosters.

The low doesn't have to be directly over the lakes either for it to feed off of their energy. It often intensifies as it comes in from the west or southwest and begins to tap into the lake's energy. But when it slows or stalls right over the lakes then it may bomb.

However, as the lake SSTs drop by late December/January and ice begins to form on the rims of the lakes, the storms cease. And we just get regular snowstorms for the rest of the winter until March when the lower level jet kicks in and winter storms get fueled that way.

I've always been fascinated by our weather here. Possibly more than tropical weather.

As long as Lake Michigan doesn't freeze over completely (or most of it) our weather isn't quite as bad in the winter.
Quoting 339. win1gamegiantsplease:

Nearly four years after Hazel, NC got a pretty big scare. Cat-4 Helene brushed the coast and never made landfall on September 21, 1958.





Outer Banks were nailed. Gusts to 150 160 mph.
Quoting 340. TroutMadness:


As long as Lake Michigan doesn't freeze over completely (or most of it) our weather isn't quite as bad in the winter.



Lake effect. Yeah, I don't see that here as I live downwind and farther inland. But I often get the huge swaths of normal snow as the storm intensifies due to the lake's influence as it comes in over my area or I am on the windy snowy backside when it is over the lakes intensifying already.

Once the lakes freeze too much it can get kinda boring, then all we get is some clippers until the LLJ starts up in February or March.
Quoting 342. FunnelVortex:



Lake effect. Yeah, I don't see that here as I live downwind and farther inland. But I often get the huge swaths of normal snow as the storm intensifies due to the lake's influence as it comes in over my area or I am on the windy snowy backside when it is over the lakes intensifying already.

Once the lakes freeze too much it can get kinda boring, then all we get is some clippers until the LLJ starts up in February or March.

lol, so true
Looks like ricderr is in for some rain today.

Wonder if a "Trump Wall" would have prevented the pending border crossing on the blob from Mexico..........................


Quoting 338. TroutMadness:


lol I spent 41 years working on that island, was once in the Guinness Book of World Records as the dirtiest square mile on earth lol. ( I can believe it) When that boat went down they didn't have enough capacity in the others to make up the difference before the close of shipping season.
Time is money in the shipping industry. Cappy put a brand new high def radar on board just before hitting the lakes, The Detroit River being one of the reasons for doing it. Welland Canal and the St Laurence River being the other. We also bought a " Satellite Navigator " or as its known today, a GPS , to speed things along..We stared at that thing for weeks in amazement..:)
Quoting 306. Camerooski:

Jeanne, Frances, Charley, and Ivan all for FLA...



Jeb?
Quoting 347. K8eCane:




Jeb?
Thats worse than Hugo...but not as bad as Fifi.....
Quoting 345. weathermanwannabe:

Wonder if a "Trump Wall" would have prevented the pending border crossing on the blob from Mexico..........................






that blob is whats lift of TD 16E
Quoting 346. hydrus:

Time is money in the shipping industry. Cappy put a brand new high def radar on board just before hitting the lakes, The Detroit River being one of the reasons for doing it. Welland Canal and the St Laurence River being the other. We also bought a " Satellite Navigator " or as its known today, a GPS , to speed things along..We stared at that thing for weeks in amazement..:)


Sometimes Time Is Money can really hurt someone's better judgement. The Edumd Fitzgerald should not have even been sailing with all that ore weighing it down!
1985 Hurricane Juan's remnant caused flooding beaucoup inland.


(By my account and others too, many feel Juan 85' was a true "Neutercane"),or a STS /Hybrid by todays reckoning.


Caption: In 1985 the remnants of Hurricane Juan produced flash floods across the state. Here, Main Street in Moorefield, West Virginia, stands under several feet of floodwater.





Quoting 348. hydrus:

Thats worse than Hugo...but not as bad as Fifi.....


Thats ok. He did at least stand up for his lady. Of course Trumpet would have no part of that. He hates women lol
Wonder how the weather is in Washington?
The question is what the shell are we gonna do?
Quoting 350. FunnelVortex:



Sometimes Time Is Money can really hurt someone's better judgement. The Edumd Fitzgerald should not have even been sailing with all that ore weighing it down!



It is what caused the Deep Horizons Rig to explode while they were drilling with bad casings,rushed in place.

BP ruined lives, and caused Billions and damages.
@ funnel

song is stuck in my head now. Have to listen to it to try to get it out!

Cold front went through on Friday night while staying on East shore of Lake Michigan. Went from glass on Friday at 5, to 6 foot breakers on Saturday Am. And that was a small storm.
Wow, I went back to the blog on 9-21-05 and reading the people telling me to get out, I was under different name back then. Everyone was freaking out
Quoting 355. RitaEvac:

Wow, I went back to the blog on 9-21-05 and reading the people telling me to get out, I was under different name back then. Everyone was freaking out
Cat-5's have that effect. Especially people who know.
Quoting 355. RitaEvac:

Wow, I went back to the blog on 9-21-05 and reading the people telling me to get out, I was under different name back then. Everyone was freaking out


what was your name? I was following closely. My name was k8e1
I almost had a nervous breakdown over StormTop
My mom and i watched mesmerized by all that
And then the gov. basically said anybody caught moving out on the street was going straight to Angola

ooops im talking about Katrina....sorry
Good new article-research on the issue of permafrost melt:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/09/climat e-change-could-cost-trillions-more-damages-because -thawing-arctic-permafrost


As global warming thaws perpetually frozen Arctic land called permafrost (pictured), the greenhouse gases trapped within will escape, ramping up climate change’s economic toll by trillions of dollars, a new study finds. To make the calculations, researchers first determined how much carbon dioxide and methane the permafrost would release as the world warms. They used a model that estimates how climate factors like temperature affect absorption and release of these gases by land, plants, and microbes. They then fed the results from that model into a different model that estimates economic damages based on future greenhouse gas emissions. The model assumed that human activities by themselves would boost carbon dioxide levels 75% from today to 2100. Total damages without the permafrost emissions would be $326 trillion globally, the researchers found. With permafrost-related emissions included, however,additional damages ranged from $3 trillion to $166 trillion, depending on how much human emissions warmed the Arctic, the team reports online today in Nature Climate Change; the average value was $43 trillion. Aggressive cuts in human emissions could reduce that average price tag to around $6 trillion, the researchers suggest. 



Quoting 341. hydrus:

Outer Banks were nailed. Gusts to 150 160 mph.


Didn't know that, and I read about Helene a couple weeks ago and though it was September 21, nope, the 27th. Really bombing my history today.
Quoting 353. Patrap:




It is what caused the Deep Horizons Rig to explode while they were drilling with bad casings,rushed in place.

BP ruined lives, and caused Billions and damages.
Indeed. We were rushed on Superior when leaving Ontonagon River . Ontonagon Inlet being one of the most dangerous I have seen, especially after a storm. our lil incident would have never happened had we waited another 24 hours.
Quoting 353. Patrap:




It is what caused the Deep Horizons Rig to explode while they were drilling with bad casings,rushed in place.

BP ruined lives, and caused Billions and damages.


And the Titanic too. They knew about the iceberg feild and were warned to remain out of it, but they decided to go into it anyways just to stick it to their corporate rival and gain publicity.

Profits over lives, right?
Quoting 359. win1gamegiantsplease:



Didn't know that, and I read about Helene a couple weeks ago and though it was September 21, nope, the 27th. Really bombing my history today.
Dont sweat it. its easy to do. there is a fricken lot of history. more than most humans , if not all, can remember. :)
Quoting 357. K8eCane:



what was your name? I was following closely. My name was k8e1
I almost had a nervous breakdown over StormTop
My mom and i watched mesmerized by all that
And then the gov. basically said anybody caught moving out on the street was going straight to Angola

ooops im talking about Katrina....sorry


It was Michael, but my quotes aren't there, but there are people talking to me using Michael.
Quoting 358. weathermanwannabe:

Good new article-research on the issue of permafrost melt:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/09/climat e-change-could-cost-trillions-more-damages-because -thawing-arctic-permafrost


As global warming thaws perpetually frozen Arctic land called permafrost (pictured), the greenhouse gases trapped within will escape, ramping up climate change’s economic toll by trillions of dollars, a new study finds. To make the calculations, researchers first determined how much carbon dioxide and methane the permafrost would release as the world warms. They used a model that estimates how climate factors like temperature affect absorption and release of these gases by land, plants, and microbes. They then fed the results from that model into a different model that estimates economic damages based on future greenhouse gas emissions. The model assumed that human activities by themselves would boost carbon dioxide levels 75% from today to 2100. Total damages without the permafrost emissions would be $326 trillion globally, the researchers found. With permafrost-related emissions included, however,additional damages ranged from $3 trillion to $166 trillion, depending on how much human emissions warmed the Arctic, the team reports online today in Nature Climate Change; the average value was $43 trillion. Aggressive cuts in human emissions could reduce that average price tag to around $6 trillion, the researchers suggest. 










I expect nothing out of Paris in December.

The changes are coming faster and faster and the only solution is to curb and cut Fossil Fuel Burning.

We had a good run here, so India, China, and the developing Nations with resources to burn, will continue and increase.

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than, the gathering of wealth by Men and nations, nothing will change.

For that to happen it will take a Cataclysm or some external threat to the Planet.


We are the Cancer and the Patient is Earth.
Quoting 363. RitaEvac:



It was Michael, but my quotes aren't there, but there are people talking to me using Michael.


just Michael with no numbers?
Quoting 363. RitaEvac:



It was Michael, but my quotes aren't there, but there are people talking to me using Michael.


Mine probly arent either because i might have been annoying and might have gotten banned once
Quoting 364. Patrap:







I expect nothing out of Paris in December.

The changes are coming faster and faster and the only solution is to curb and cut Fossil Fuel Burning.

We had a good run here, so India, China, and the developing Nations with resources to burn, will continue and increase.

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than, the gathering of wealth by Men and nations, nothing will change.

For that to happen it will take a Cataclysm or some external threat to the Planet.


We are the Cancer and the Patient is Earth.



We need a hydrogen fusion reactor...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 352. K8eCane:



Thats ok. He did at least stand up for his lady. Of course Trumpet would have no part of that. He hates women lol
Wonder how the weather is in Washington?
The question is what the shell are we gonna do?
Most men would and do...Regardless of the weather...:)
Quoting 364. Patrap:







I expect nothing out of Paris in December.

The changes are coming faster and faster and the only solution is to curb and cut Fossil Fuel Burning.

We had a good run here, so India, China, and the developing Nations with resources to burn, will continue and increase.

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than, the gathering of wealth by Men and nations, nothing will change.

For that to happen it will take a Cataclysm or some external threat to the Planet.


We are the Cancer and the Patient is Earth.



So sad but true, prevention is definitely better than cure, but unfortunately in so many ways it seems that we humans are destined to learn the VERY Hard way! May God help us All!

Blessings!