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Watching 96L off South Carolina Coast; Tropical Storm Ida Forms in Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on September 19, 2015

An area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Carolina (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to the waters from the northern Bahamas to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but is not a major wind or heavy rain threat to the coast. The disturbance is under high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and there is plenty of dry air around it, which is inhibiting development. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that 96L had developed a weak surface circulation, but the storm's heavy thunderstorms were removed over 200 miles to the north and east of the center, characteristic of the structure of a subtropical storm. Our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development, and the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed wind shear remaining a high 20 - 30 knots though Monday, which should keep any development slow. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 40%, respectively. 96L's slow movement to the northeast through Monday should keep the heaviest rains offshore, but strong winds from the system will bring high surf to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. By Tuesday, 96L may move more to the north or north-northwest, bringing the storm close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast near Virginia.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image Invest 96L.

Tropical Storm Ida forms
Tropical Storm Ida formed Friday night in the waters of the Central Atlantic midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, and was headed west-northwest at 12 mph on Saturday morning, well away from any land areas. Satellite images on Saturday morning showed that Ida was slowly organizing, but lacked a large area of heavy thunderstorms, and the center of circulation had been exposed to view by high wind shear. Conditions over the next few days favor slow strengthening, with the 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, warm ocean temperatures near 28°C (83°F), and a moist atmosphere. The long-range fate of Ida is unclear, since the storm will experience a collapse in its steering currents from Monday through Wednesday that will cause a very slow, erratic motion. The European model predicted with its 00Z Saturday run that Ida would lift out to the north by the middle of the week, caught up in a strong trough of low pressure passing to its north. The GFS model showed that the trough would bypass Ida and leave it stranded in the Central Atlantic to wander for many days. Unless Ida can pull off some non-Euclidian movements like her namesake character in my favorite computer game, Monument Valley, Ida is unlikely to threaten any land areas in North America or the Caribbean.

Ida is the ninth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, which already surpasses the total number of named storms that occurred during the last two strong El Niño events, 1997 (eight named storms) and 1982 (six named storms.) This year's strong El Niño event is different than the previous two, in that we are seeing much lower levels of wind shear over the far Eastern Atlantic, which is allowing storms to form in that region.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Ida.

Tropical Depression Nine near dissipation
Tropical Depression Nine in the Central Atlantic is barely a tropical depression, and is likely to dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical Depression 5-C forms in Central Pacific
Yet another tropical cyclone has formed in the Central Pacific, where Tropical Depression 5-C is moving northwards on a path that will take it several hundred miles west of the Hawaiian Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for central portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski Island; a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes.

Invest 91E a heavy rain threat to Baja Mexico
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula (Invest 91E) is headed north-northwestwards at 10 mph, and will likely make landfall on the central Baja coast on Monday. Moisture from this system will produce heavy rains across portions of the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday, potentially causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. 91E will bring isolated heavy rains to Southern California and Arizona beginning on Monday night.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Update....
Who would have thought that the storm tracks would congregate in the MDR. Most people were calling for mostly "homegrown" development with nothing but shear and dry air in the tropics.

Thank you Dr. Masters.

LOL, "Unless Ida can pull off some non-Euclidian movements like her namesake character in my favorite computer game, Monument Valley, Ida is unlikely to threaten any land areas in North America or the Caribbean."

Unless it pulls an Ike.
Thanks Doc...Systems in the Atlantic look benign.....which is good.
Quoting 2. SLU:

Who would have thought that the storm tracks would congregate in the MDR. Most people were calling for mostly "homegrown" development with nothing but shear and dry air in the tropics.


We may still get a couple homegrown systems. I called for some MDR action, but figured they would fizzle , or get wiped out by hitting Hispaniola.
With a little over 6 weeks left in the season, anything with a semblance of a chance of reaching CONUS in the Atlantic basin is going to have to be a BOC storm, but it's getting pretty late in the season for that kind of development.  Fingers crossed.
Quoting 3. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thank you Dr. Masters.

LOL, "Unless Ida can pull off some non-Euclidian movements like her namesake character in my favorite computer game, Monument Valley, Ida is unlikely to threaten any land areas in North America or the Caribbean."

Unless it pulls an Ike.
quite possible considering the year we have had so far...
Quoting 2. SLU:

Who would have thought that the storm tracks would congregate in the MDR. Most people were calling for mostly "homegrown" development with nothing but shear and dry air in the tropics.




You'll note though all of the storms had a quick and premature death due to dry air and shear in the tropics. Danny only barely made it to Category 3 status before rapidly weakening.
Thanks, Dr. Masters. I have this uncanny ability to post just after you make a new blog. I had just posted about Ida and the NHC's discussion of how little we know about what's going to happen with this storm. Remember the days when MDR storms mostly just came west and we only worried about a landfall or going OTS? Not this year. I just hope Ida doesn't have any remnants near land we have to track for the next 20 days. I'm really getting sick of remnants of remnants.


Quoting 278. FunnelVortex:



The other storms this year: "Let's go past 60W!" *all die in the shear*

Ida: "lol nope." *turns away and hangs out there*


Really strange track... Keeps shifting... The models do not know where the thing is headed.
The NHC 10:00 forecast discussion laid it out pretty well.

Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of Ida is
inducing a slightly faster west-northwestward motion, or 295/10 kt.
The ridge is expected to weaken within the next 48 hours, leaving
Ida between two deep-layer lows, one located over the eastern
Atlantic and the other northeast of the Leeward Islands. This
should cause Ida to become nearly stationary or meander by days 3
through 5. With the exception of the UKMET model, the other track
models seem to be trending toward a solution in which the eastern
Atlantic trough has at least some influence on Ida's motion, and the
updated NHC track forecast now shows a slow eastward drift on days 4
and 5. Overall though, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and is close to the model consensus aids.

Ida is already encountering 20 knots of westerly shear. The models are almost zero help in this situation. Ida will just drift until a trough develops that can carry Ida away. In this scenario, it's possible Ida never makes it to a hurricane and then starts a slow weakening process. As usual this year, Ida is going to be another frustrating storm to track.
I wonder if the lower levels of shear in the Eastern Atlantic with comparison to previous strong el nino's (82,97) is indicative in any way to the strength of the current El nino event?
Quoting 3. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thank you Dr. Masters.

LOL, "Unless Ida can pull off some non-Euclidian movements like her namesake character in my favorite computer game, Monument Valley, Ida is unlikely to threaten any land areas in North America or the Caribbean."

Unless it pulls an Ike.
Another Ike would certainly be a stretch this year unless it develops an armored coat to get through about 2,000 miles of shear and dry air. :-)
Quoting 7. Camerooski:

quite possible considering the year we have had so far...
Doc also mentions the GFS showing a trough bypassing it to the north, leaving Ida stranded and meandering for days, given the strength of the Bermuda High this season and non-tropical low pressure systems off the East Coast of the US riding around the northern part of the High, it wouldn't surprise me if Ida tracks further west than the models are advertising. How far west? It is too soon to know, the odds are still good this recurves harmlessly OTS, but as noted by some of the bloggers, the models have struggled this season with the systems in the Atlantic Basin, I wouldn't write anything off, until it gets caught up in the trough.
Quoting 11. sar2401:

Another Ike would certainly be a stretch this year unless it develops an armored coat to get through about 2,000 miles of shear and dry air. :-)
Ike also had its issues with windshear, but found some sweet spots in between.

Ike's gradual strengthening began to quicken early on September 3, with the strengthening of an intense rainband around the center of the storm. At roughly 15:00 UTC that day, microwave imaging indicated that a primordial eye was developing within the intensifying tropical storm.[12] Tracking northwestward, the NHC upgraded Ike to hurricane status at 18:00 UTC based on objective satellite intensity estimates and the appearance of the eye on visible satellite imagery.[12][16] During this time, Ike was centered 690 mi (1,100 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, and was tracking west-northwestward as a result of a weakened subtropical ridge to its northeast.[12] Ike's placement in an area with virtually no wind shear allowed for the hurricane to rapidly intensify despite unfavorable upper-level winds to its north,[16] reaching major hurricane strength six hours after its designation as a hurricane.[17] At 06:00 UTC on September 4, Ike peaked with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 935 mbar (hPa; 27.61 inHg), making the storm a Category 4 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. After peaking in strength, a ridge of high pressure to the storm's west strengthened, causing Ike to track towards the southwest—a path unusual for the time of year. However, this track also brought the storm into an area of strong wind shear,[12] causing the storm to become asymmetric in structure late on September 4 and weaken,[18] briefly dropping below major hurricane status on September 6 while 150 mi (240 km) east of Grand Turk Island.
Another "I" storm...don't like that it is not in a hurry to go anywhere. Like pinball, the longer the ball stays in play the more likely you are to hit something.

Finally some waves for the SE coast. Tomorrow morning the call.

Quoting 3. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thank you Dr. Masters.

LOL, "Unless Ida can pull off some non-Euclidian movements like her namesake character in my favorite computer game, Monument Valley, Ida is unlikely to threaten any land areas in North America or the Caribbean."

Unless it pulls an Ike.
You know you are getting old when you don't have a clue about what Dr. Masters is referring to.

"Unless Ida can pull off some non-Euclidian movements like her namesake character in my favorite computer game, Monument Valley, Ida is unlikely to threaten any land areas in North America or the Caribbean."
i love the high wind shear for the last four years in a row killing them storms off!!
12z GFS is absolutely in love with Ida (ironic, considering it didn't even develop the storm until the NHC started advisories).

922 mb by 222 hours.

StormChaserCaleb do work at NOAA?
Quoting 18. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS is absolutely in love with Ida (ironic, considering it didn't even develop the storm until the NHC started advisories).

922 mb by 222 hours.


wow!!
Only in an El Nino season would you see a system strengthening while moving north of 20 North.



Yeah the waves are doing great until 60W then get ripped apart.

I'm still a little concerned about what October holds. There may be a window where conditions line up for a CONUS threat. Sandy track come to mind.

Quoting 2. SLU:

Who would have thought that the storm tracks would congregate in the MDR. Most people were calling for mostly "homegrown" development with nothing but shear and dry air in the tropics.


This scenario would not be good.


Quoting 18. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS is absolutely in love with Ida (ironic, considering it didn't even develop the storm until the NHC started advisories).

922 mb by 222 hours.


Quoting 23. HaoleboySurfEC:

This scenario would not be good.





Meh, a storm that far north of that extreme intensity would almost guaranteed be only a concern to shipping interests, although the extratropical remnants would pose a high risk to the Azores.
lolz

26. SLU
Quoting 22. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yeah the waves are doing great until 60W then get ripped apart.

I'm still a little concerned about what October holds. There may be a window where conditions line up for a CONUS threat. Sandy track come to mind.


Quoting 8. CybrTeddy:



You'll note though all of the storms had a quick and premature death due to dry air and shear in the tropics. Danny only barely made it to Category 3 status before rapidly weakening.
Quoting 5. hydrus:

We may still get a couple homegrown systems. I called for some MDR action, but figured they would fizzle , or get wiped out by hitting Hispaniola.


Notwithstanding the premature death of the storms in the MDR, based on the comments made prior to the season and in the earlier days if someone said there'd be 6-5-2-1 east of 50W by September 19th, folks would call them mad given the conditions. So it's safe to say the Cape Verde season has overachieved significantly for a strong El Nino year. We've never seen this much action in the MDR in a strong El Nino year before.
Quoting 21. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Only in an El Nino season would you see a system strengthening while moving north of 20 North.






Hey there buddy, even though its a long ways out, but if you look at the SST's over that area, there pretty warm, compared to the rest of the Atlantic, and there also above average. Any system with low shear that passes through that area, even with this strong El Nino, will probably have decent shot at even becoming a major.



Quoting 26. SLU:



Notwithstanding the premature death of the storms in the MDR, based on the comments made prior to the season and in the earlier days if someone said there'd be 6-5-2-1 east of 50W by September 19th, folks would call them mad given the conditions. So it's safe to say the Cape Verde season has overachieved significantly for a strong El Nino year. We've never seen this much action in the MDR in a strong El Nino year before.
I suspect we will see more like this season in a warming world.
Ida has very good outflow.

Geostationary visible ( id post it but cant) looks like 96L moving back south

But then again still wearing old glasses with store bought readers on top til my new ones arrive
Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I suspect we will see more like this season in a warming world.




Texas once again given reprieve by an EPAC, 91E from unending scorching sun.. I wonder how many other Texans suspect we were plunged back into drought immediately after our Miracle May and TS Bill that refilled our reservoirs, despite being an El Nino year.
Quoting 31. redwagon:





Texas once again given reprieve by an EPAC, 91E from unending scorching sun.. I wonder how many other Texans suspect we were plunged back into drought immediately after our Miracle May and TS Bill that refilled our reservoirs, despite being an El Nino year.

Happy to "share" with you.....
A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
northeast Florida coast continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms well to the east and south of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward off the southeast coast of the United States. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this
low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


Even with three systems being monitored, its safe to say the Atlantic is nice and quiet. Actually so are ths islands and GOM
Shrimp cocktail and flounder calls....L8er G8ers
If Ida adheres to the GFS forecast, I would need the next two named storms to become hurricanes and then a shutdown to get my prediction right.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Visible satellite images confirm that the area of low pressure
located about 275 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula does not have a well-defined center of
circulation, although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has gradually become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions should be conducive for further development
during the next 24 hours, and a tropical depression could form
tonight or on Sunday while the system moves north-northwestward and
then northward at 10 to 15 mph. By Sunday night, strong upper-level
winds and colder water should prevent tropical cyclone formation.
Interests on the Baja California peninsula should monitor the
progress of this low. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
moisture from this system is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico,
and will spread northward into portions of southern California
and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. These rains could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Berg






17E/Marty?
Quoting 35. win1gamegiantsplease:

If Ida adheres to the GFS forecast, I would need the next two named storms to become hurricanes and then a shutdown to get my prediction right.
Good luck on your predictions, mine is already busted, I had 8, 4, 2.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, located several hundred miles east-northeast
of the Lesser Antilles, and on Tropical Storm Ida, located about a
thousand miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
northeast Florida coast continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms well to the east and south of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward off the southeast coast of the United States. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this
low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
This site is the no opinion zone.Group think only.

Heh, anyone want to take bets now on how weak the 12z ECMWF will be for Ida? I'll go with a dissipating 1009mb low by 240 hours. :P
Quoting 40. CybrTeddy:

Heh, anyone want to take bets now on how weak the 12z ECMWF will be for Ida? I'll go with a dissipating 1009mb low by 240 hours. :P


I'm wondering if the 12z will still show a low coming up into the southern GOM?
Quoting 41. Sfloridacat5:



I'm wondering if the 12z will still show a low coming up into the southern GOM?
Quoting 42. LargoFl:




Talking about the Euro, not GFS
Quoting 37. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good luck on your predictions, mine is already busted, I had 8, 4, 2.


As the Price is Right taught me, better under than over at least
Quoting 40. CybrTeddy:

Heh, anyone want to take bets now on how weak the 12z ECMWF will be for Ida? I'll go with a dissipating 1009mb low by 240 hours. :P
Quoting 15. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Like this, remember this game?




Dude, this was my ideal back in the windows 98 days, oh my the nostalgia....
Quoting 44. Hurricanes101:



Talking about the Euro, not GFS


Euro is just about there. Last run had the low forming at 168 hours in the western Caribbean.
Quoting 48. Jedkins01:



Dude, this was my ideal back in the windows 98 days, oh my the nostalgia....


I like how there was an option to tilt the table
GFS with the gulf low. Both of the best models have this. So there is a shot i guess...Model consensus makes a bit of difference with the non existent systems.

Quoting 50. win1gamegiantsplease:



I like how there was an option to tilt the table
Tilt the table.? Please tell me what that means.
Quoting 39. help4u:

This site is the no opinion zone.Group think only.


You obviously do not read the entire blog..or even half


Future Ida?
Latest Euro..

ECMWF is still showing the western Caribbean low. Now it forms at 144 hours.
Quoting 55. hydrus:

Latest Euro..




At least two runs in a row. It also moved up (shortened) the time frame for the low's formation.
Quoting 32. PedleyCA:


Happy to "share" with you.....




We might slurp the cyclone clean before sunset.... this McIdas map looks different, sharper today. The greens are more defined, and the topography, esp. California.
Quoting 49. Sfloridacat5:



Euro is just about there. Last run had the low forming at 168 hours in the western Caribbean.
Yep..Looking at this, I am beginnig to think that the low the models have will be more baroclinic rather than tropical..Maybe one of those subtropical hybrid depressions..:)

Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



At least two runs in a row. It also moved up (shortened) the time frame for the low's formation.
yep. I think four or five runs, but i cant swear to it..
Quoting 59. hydrus:

Yep..Looking at this, I am beginnig to think that the low the models have will be more baroclinic rather than tropical..Maybe one of those subtropical hybrid depressions..:)




Like Lee in 2011
Quoting 52. hydrus:

Tilt the table.? Please tell me what that means.


When playing a real pinball machine, tilting the table (shaking it) is a cheat way to get the ball to move somewhere you want, either to score extra or to prevent it from dropping through.
Quoting 43. Climate175:




Looks like there is a very high chance the we will be moving into October and November as those temperatures change over from plus to minus.

TD 9 By all appearances seems to Definitely be hanging in there. JOAQUIN should be in the making IMHO...Cyclogenesis is again on the upswing- an ASCAT or ship/ buoy data would be useful for a more factual sense of the true intensity and subsequent accurate forecast of this system. Dissipation does NOT seem likely here...
Quoting 39. help4u:

This site is the no opinion zone.Group think only.




Yawn, go find another site then and stop whining.
Euro at 192 hours puts a 1007 mb low in the central GOM.
Shear has gotten a lot better in the eastern GOM too. Don't know how long it will last though.
Quoting 62. win1gamegiantsplease:



When playing a real pinball machine, tilting the table (shaking it) is a cheat way to get the ball to move somewhere you want, either to score extra or to prevent it from dropping through.

It's not cheating. Bumping the machine was an integral part of the game. Bumping it too hard resulted in a "tilt" which turned off all the bumpers and the player-controlled flippers, allowing the ball to drain with no further scoring. It took a reasonable amount of skill to bump the machine just right.

I majored in pinball in college.
The Euro really amplifies the trough in the Atlantic as opposed to the GFS kicking Ida off to the Northeast Atlantic a lot quicker. It also shows a 1034 mb. High stationed right over NY. Either this a change to a more Fall like pattern or the Euro is amplifying the pattern too soon. We will see which is the more likely scenario, as mentioned earlier just given how strong the Bermuda High has been this season I lean more to a less amplified pattern. We haven't had as much Typhoons in the WPAC lately either to help amplify the pattern across the US.
there were quite a few pin ball machine parlors in old san juan 1970s they were dime machines. back then in PRico we did not worry about hurricanes. they either went safely to the north or south. then hugo.
12Z Euro likes Louisiana instead of Florida bringing a weak system into Louisiana. Now we can wait to see what the next run shows. ahah
Quoting 69. islander101010:

there were quite a few pin ball machine parlors in old san juan 1970s they were dime machines. we did not worry about hurricanes. they either went to the north or south. then hugo.
Yep. We had a game room down town in the 70;s with at least 40 machines. They varied from antique to recent models.....cool stuff...I should mention they had Tail Gunner Space invaders, and Missile Command..which was top notch in the late 70;s and early 80;s....Ida lost her hat due to the wind I believe..:)

Quoting 70. Sfloridacat5:

12Z Euro likes Louisiana instead of Florida bringing a weak system into Louisiana.

They will shift around for several days. I wont pay any attention to path until we get a center, or something close.
Quoting 72. hydrus:

They will shift around for several days. I wont pay any attention to path until we get a center, or something close.


Key West to Tampico in play. ahah
That's if we even get a low to form.
Quoting 51. hydrus:

GFS with the gulf low. Both of the best models have this. So there is a shot i guess...Model consensus makes a bit of difference with the non existent systems.




FWIW, the Euro has some ensemble agreement this time on some kind of gulf low development. Unlike the hurricane it had shown before.
Quoting 33. trunkmonkey:

People in here are wanting me or skeptics to go to prison because I'm a skeptic on Climate change, Professors in Universities are pressing the President to go forward with RICO laws. More and more NAZI ways of Government are moving forward in the good ole USA!



"People in here are wanting"

What people? Who here wants people like you to get arrested here for not believing in Climate Change?

Many of us here may believe you're denying facts, including myself, but nobody is calling for your arrest, at least not that I'm aware of.

Also, you're claiming that professors are pushing the President for such as well?

I mean, if you've got proof I'm all ears. But, I find that rather hard to believe.
Quoting 68. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The Euro really amplifies the trough in the Atlantic as opposed to the GFS kicking Ida off to the Northeast Atlantic a lot quicker. It also shows a 1034 mb. High stationed right over NY. Either this a change to a more Fall like pattern or the Euro is amplifying the pattern too soon. We will see which is the more likely scenario, as mentioned earlier just given how strong the Bermuda High has been this season I lean more to a less amplified pattern. We haven't had as much Typhoons in the WPAC lately either to help amplify the pattern across the US.


Saw this earlier. Don't know to which model he was referring. Maybe what Euro was seeing?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 7h7 hours ago

Need to watch the W. Pac for next strong typhoon. Possible U.S. medium-range forecast curve ball coming.
Quoting 66. Sfloridacat5:

Euro at 192 hours puts a 107 mb low in the central GOM.
Shear has gotten a lot better in the eastern GOM too. Don't know how long it will last though.


107 mb???
Yikes! A hurricane that deep would probably bring at least 1000 mph eyewall winds, 100,00 ft thunderstorm tops and 500 inches of rain!

Jk I know its a misprint, I just couldn't help it, lol.
Quoting 77. Jedkins01:




Yikes! A hurricane that deep would probably bring at least 1000 mph eyewall winds, 100,00 ft thunderstorm tops and 500 inches of rain!

Jk I know its a misprint, I just couldn't help it, lol.


Hey, those beach umbrellas can be dangerous.

I added the missing 0 (1007 mb). haha
Quoting 74. AtHomeInTX:



FWIW, the Euro has some ensemble agreement this time on some kind of gulf low development. Unlike the hurricane it had shown before.
I believe there will be a low in the gulf next week, but how large and strong is the question, after that, if it survives, track and possible landfall....fickle these things are I say..:)
Quoting 77. Jedkins01:



107 mb???
Yikes! A hurricane that deep would probably bring at least 1000 mph eyewall winds, 100,00 ft thunderstorm tops and 500 inches of rain!

Jk I know its a misprint, I just couldn't help it, lol.
Gonna need a bigger planet...
Quoting 67. Misanthroptimist:


It's not cheating. Bumping the machine was an integral part of the game. Bumping it too hard resulted in a "tilt" which turned off all the bumpers and the player-controlled flippers, allowing the ball to drain with no further scoring. It took a reasonable amount of skill to bump the machine just right.

I majored in pinball in college.


Were you deaf, dumb, and blind in college too?

I thought bump and tilt were interchangeable terms, makes sense now. Haven't played a machine in a while, thanks to Nintendo and Sony, and later Microsoft.
Quoting 77. Jedkins01:



107 mb???
Yikes! A hurricane that deep would probably bring at least 1000 mph eyewall winds, 100,00 ft thunderstorm tops and 500 inches of rain!

Jk I know its a misprint, I just couldn't help it, lol.


And the eye would suffocate anyone who was lucky enough to survive the eyewall.
I'm not sure at what pressure people would be unable to breath. I read that the pressure was around 330 mb on the summit of Everest.
Quoting 82. FunnelVortex:



And the eye would suffocate anyone who was lucky enough to survive the eyewall.


Your ears would blow to bits
Quoting 83. Sfloridacat5:

I'm not sure at what pressure people would be unable to breath. I read that the pressure was around 330 mb on the summit of Everest.


And they have to wear oxygen tanks.
Quoting 84. win1gamegiantsplease:



Your ears would blow to bits


The only way to survive a storm like that is an airtight underground bunker.
Quoting 85. FunnelVortex:



And they have to wear oxygen tanks.


To stay there. People have climbed Everest using no additional oxygen.
CMC also puts a low in the GOM in about a week. It keeps it weak and it goes into Florida.
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:



To stay there. People have climbed Everest using no additional oxygen.
You would have to be in superb shape, and even then that is extremely dangerous.
Quoting 86. FunnelVortex:



The only way to survive a storm like that is an airtight underground bunker.
Unless it was Florida...Storm surge would drown the occupants..jmo..pft..
which is the last hurricane season as of now that the re-analysis have analizee? 1950s or 1960s?
Quoting 89. hydrus:

You would have to be in superb shape, and even then that is extremely dangerous.


Yeah, they don't call it the "Death Zone" for nothing.
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:



To stay there. People have climbed Everest using no additional oxygen.


And many of them are dead
Quoting 93. FunnelVortex:



And many of them are dead


Many using aided oxygen are dead.
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



Many using aided oxygen are dead.


Everest is a dangerous mountain in general.

It's slopes are very steep and it's snowpacks are unstable. Not to mention the chasms all over the mountain. When climbing Everest air pressure would be the least of your worries.
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



Many using aided oxygen are dead.
many folks dont realize that oxygen is nasty stuff...Thats why we only require 21% of it in the air we breath. Any more and cells couldnt hack the corrosive effects.
Quoting 95. FunnelVortex:



Everest is a dangerous mountain in general.

It's slopes are very steep and it's snowpacks are unstable. Not to mention the chasms all over the mountain. When climbing Everest air pressure would be the least of your worries.
This is true. Not to mention freak storms, avalanches, and bitter cold with wind chill below -100 degrees.
Quoting 96. hydrus:

many folks dont realize that oxygen is nasty stuff...Thats why we only require 21% of it in the air we breath. Any more and cells couldnt hack the corrosive effects.


Not to mention it is flammable. The nitrogen in our atmosphere keeps the oxygen in check. Many people don't realize our atmosphere is mostly nitrogen. If our atmosphere was all oxygen it would ignite in a huge fireball.
Quoting 97. hydrus:

This is true. Not to mention freak storms, avalanches, and bitter cold with wind chill below -100 degrees.


Sometimes I wonder why people bother to climb that mountain. I know I wouldnt.

And to add insult to injury, if you die they leave you up there.
Quoting 100. Gearsts:




Nice...
Quoting 98. FunnelVortex:



Not to mention it is flammable. The nitrogen in our atmosphere keeps the oxygen in check. Many people don't realize our atmosphere is mostly nitrogen.
Yep..And harmless by all accounts I have read...With a moniker like NITRO-gen, one may think otherwise.
Quoting 97. hydrus:

This is true. Not to mention freak storms, avalanches, and bitter cold with wind chill below -100 degrees.


Though K-2 in Pakistan (2nd highest mountain in the world) is even more difficult to climb.
Quoting 83. Sfloridacat5:

I'm not sure at what pressure people would be unable to breath. I read that the pressure was around 330 mb on the summit of Everest.
In summer, when most climbs take place, the summit is at 251-253 Torr. That converts to about a third of an atmosphere, or 340 mb. These are the kinds of conversions we use in diving only in the opposite direction. There have been a number of non-Nepali's that have summited without oxygen. Unfortunately, some of the first to do so have developed brain damage in later life. The risk of brain damage is so critical at the summit that it's a real risk to those who do it.
Quoting 91. allancalderini:

which is the last hurricane season as of now that the re-analysis have analizee? 1950s or 1960s?


?
10 years ago today, I was in Memphis as I had arrived there post Katrina to reunite with my Family on the 16th of September.

I was making plans to return to NOLA with them when Rita began to Blossom...in the Keys.

I had 2 16ft Budget trucks with Demo equipment parked in the Upper Ninth Ward where we demo-ing Homes flooded by Katrina.

We would pull into Nola on the 21st.

It was like a bad dream with Rita lurking out there.

It was very heady times still for thousands in Limbo.


Hurricane Rita Video from Key West Florida, 9/19/2005. Pre storm video. Hurricane Rita, still a tropical storm, is about to hit Key West Florida within 24 hours. Footage of people preparing for the storm.
Catalog #: Hurricane_Rita_2005_Key_West_01
Screen Format: 4:3
Duration: 6:24




Quoting 102. hydrus:

Yep..And harmless by all accounts I have read...With a moniker like NITRO-gen, one may think otherwise.


Nitro is nitromethane. Nitrogen by itself is not flammable.
Quoting 105. win1gamegiantsplease:



?
I mean with re-analysis project the NHC is doing. I want to know which is as of today the last season they have analize. I want to know if they are close to the 1960 hurricane season to see if Ethel might be downgrade in re-analysis.
Quoting 103. win1gamegiantsplease:



Though K-2 in Pakistan (2nd highest mountain in the world) is even more difficult to climb.
K-2 is a more technically difficult peak, and one only the most experienced are allowed on it and can make it up. Everest, on the other hand, is not a difficult mountain technically except for a few places like the Khumbu Icefalls. It's a dangerous mountain for the reasons Hydus posted, plus the sheer number of climbers. All it takes to summit Everest is enough money to get in on a climb and not be too obviously out of shape. That's why so many die on that mountain.
Quoting 101. FunnelVortex:



Nice...


That resolution actually makes sense: the MDR has been hogging 2/3 of EPAC moisture for a month, ferreting it to God Knows Where, a big storm to spin it up and wrap that moisture back in order to dissipate the CATL surface heat, I'll buy it. Although it would probably mean big trouble for Europe.
Snipped from the Miami NWS Disco...

BY MID NEXT WEEK A MID LEVEL LOW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THEN RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS CUT OFF LOW HAS
BEEN CHANGING AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW WET AND STORMY
IT GETS HERE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA
Quoting 107. FunnelVortex:



Nitro is nitromethane. Nitrogen by itself is not flammable.
Yep. The Milky Way Galaxy is loaded with the stuff...Explains why the atmosphere is 78% Nitrogen....i think..:)
"I gotta tell ya folks, it is jus a absolutely gorgeous day here on the S. Shore of Lake Ponchartrain,

Back to you blogger's in the wutv underground studio"...



Quoting 113. Patrap:

"I gotta tell ya folks, it is jus a absolutely gorgeous day here on the S. Shore of Lake Ponchartrain,

Back to you blogger's in the wutv underground studio"...




Why do they all wear a spaghetti on their ear.?
Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:

CMC also puts a low in the GOM in about a week. It keeps it weak and it goes into Florida.

Yep. Too bad the namy only goes to 84...It would likely have a cat-3 in the gulf.


Think this is about the lowest I've seen shear in the NW, SW, and Central Caribbean all season

Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96°NLon: 82.54°WElev: 26ft.

Heavy Rain

78°F

26°C
Humidity 85%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 29.83 in (1009.9 mb)
Dewpoint 73°F (23°C)
Visibility 0.50 mi
Heat Index 80°F (27°C)
Last update 19 Sep 4:53 pm EDT



Ironically Tampa has had over 1 inch of rain today when rain chances are 20% in a much less favorable environment for heavy thunderstorms compared to having less than 0.30 combined of 3 days with 70-80% rain chances in a much more favorable environment for heavy thunderstorms.

The main difference? Those favorable days had little to no sun, and thus very little lifting mechanism.
Afternoon all .... looks like lots of low-grade systems around this weekend.... at this rate we can expect to see up to 3 more TCs in the ATL before the end of the season... amazing considering the strength of the el Nino....

96L has finally taken the rain off to the NE for the time being. Unfortunately the humidity is still on the killer side... :-(
Just jumping in late in the convo and want to address comments that Oxygen is flammable...it is not in itself flammable in the sense normally thought of as flammable..however O2 is needed for elements of combustion...and it greatly speeds the combustion process. But you can't light oxygen in the manner in which you light propane or gasoline. whatever burning matter exposed to increased oxygen burns more rapidly...if placed in a room of 100% 02 the burning matter would would burn so quickly it may even look like it is exploding in some ways but the 02 in the room wouldn't explode or burn by itself.

Quoting 116. stormpetrol:



Think this is about the lowest I've seen shear in the NW, SW, and Central Caribbean all season
Remnants of NINE

5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19
Location: 18.8°N 49.9°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
Quoting 98. FunnelVortex:



Not to mention it is flammable. The nitrogen in our atmosphere keeps the oxygen in check. Many people don't realize our atmosphere is mostly nitrogen. If our atmosphere was all oxygen it would ignite in a huge fireball.


You might wanna do your homework on that one. ;)
Quoting 122. ChillinInTheKeys:



You might wanna do your homework on that one. ;)


What are you saying??!
Quoting 123. FunnelVortex:



What are you saying??!


..."Oxygen is also not flammable, but it is a high-energy gas that very readily oxidizes other materials. For something to burn, the reaction requires a fuel (the thing that burns) and an oxidizer like oxygen. Without the fuel, though, no combustion will take place no matter how high the concentration of oxygen is."...

Link





what is going on here with the Cone
Quoting 124. ChillinInTheKeys:



"Oxygen is also not flammable, but it is a high-energy gas that very readily oxidizes other materials. For something to burn, the reaction requires a fuel (the thing that burns) and an oxidizer like oxygen. Without the fuel, though, no combustion will take place no matter how high the concentration of oxygen is."

Link


Oxygen tanks EXPLODE.
Quoting 125. hurricanes2018:




what is going on here with the Cone


Balloon
Quoting 126. FunnelVortex:



Oxygen tanks EXPLODE.


So do SCUBA tanks and other pressurized vessels with non-flammable contents.

Edit; Check out the link on post #124.
Quoting 23. HaoleboySurfEC:

This scenario would not be good.





If you surf and live on the east coast, how could this be a bad scenario???
Quoting 129. ChillinInTheKeys:



So do SCUBA tanks and other pressurized vessels with non-flammable contents.


I mean oxygen tanks make fireballs when they do.
Quoting 125. hurricanes2018:




what is going on here with the Cone
They expect the steering currents to be weak so Ida will just sit there going round in circles...
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
Quoting 131. FunnelVortex:



I mean oxygen tanks make fireballs when they do.


OK. I was just responding to the part where you said that it's flammable and that the atmosphere would burn if it was all oxygen.
Quoting 134. ChillinInTheKeys:



OK. I was just responding to the part where you said that it's flammable and that the atmosphere would burn if it was all oxygen.


I'm sorry, but then what creates the fireball when oxygen tanks explode?
Quoting 125. hurricanes2018:




what is going on here with the Cone
Only time I can remember a cone like this was during Debby, it did a complete 180. Looks like the NHC is taking into account the collapse of the steering currents. Maybe a COL?

Invest 96L offshore made things a little choppy here today.

My head just exploded!
Sorry..with all this neat weather I have to go back to the oxygen statements. Chillin in the Keys is spot on...fire is nothing but rapid oxidation ( slow oxidation is stuff like rust on metal) Oxygen causes oxidation...and if the material is already burning Oxygen merely speeds the process greatly..a spark in a room full of 02 really does nothing but for whatever is sparking sparks more intensly..perhaps setting a secondary fire if there are other flammable materials nearby. Not pounding on anyone...just think it is important to know correct science...back to the weather. humid and tropical in St Augustine ..sunny, then rain bands...then sunny
Quoting 135. FunnelVortex:



I'm sorry, but then what creates the fireball when oxygen tanks explode?


I'm assuming that you are referring to tossing an oxygen tank into a fire where you have fuel in the form of gasification from the solid fuels that you are already burning that the oxygen rapidly oxidizes upon the tanks rupture... Just a guess.
Quoting 117. Jedkins01:


Current conditions at
Tampa, Tampa International Airport (KTPA)
Lat: 27.96°NLon: 82.54°WElev: 26ft.

Heavy Rain

78°F

26°C
Humidity 85%
Wind Speed NW 8 mph
Barometer 29.83 in (1009.9 mb)
Dewpoint 73°F (23°C)
Visibility 0.50 mi
Heat Index 80°F (27°C)
Last update 19 Sep 4:53 pm EDT



Ironically Tampa has had over 1 inch of rain today when rain chances are 20% in a much less favorable environment for heavy thunderstorms compared to having less than 0.30 combined of 3 days with 70-80% rain chances in a much more favorable environment for heavy thunderstorms.

The main difference? Those favorable days had little to no sun, and thus very little lifting mechanism.


Amazing what the sun can do. If it could have broken out mid week the skies would have unloaded on us.
I feel like I'm in Chemistry class. Good convo going on with ChillinInTheKeys and FunnelVortex.
Quoting 140. ChillinInTheKeys:



I'm assuming that you are referring to tossing an oxygen tank into a fire where you have fuel in the form of gasification from the solid fuels that you are already burning that the oxygen rapidly oxidizes upon the tanks rupture... Just a guess.


No, I'm refering to when there is a spark or flame already burning nearby. I've heard stories about oxygen tanks exploding into a fireball when in a burning building
Risk to Bermuda.

Actually that position would not really pump much surf to the EC. The best track is just north of all the islands curving poleward between the CONUS and Bermuda. Continental shelf does a number on a swell that has already travelled that far before it gets to the shelf.

I'd suspect a stomach to chest swell at some of the most exposed spots (OBX) from that hypothetical storm.


Quoting 130. DogtownMex:



If you surf and live on the east coast, how could this be a bad scenario???
Funnel Vortex...it is the already burning material burning quicker...last time..oxygen is not flammable in the sense you are thinking. Chilin in The Keys is correct...lets move on..I'm getting depressed now
Quoting 145. cameronstaugustine:

Funnel Vortex...it is the already burning material burning quicker...last time..oxygen is not flammable in the sense you are thinking. Chilin in The Keys is correct...lets move on..I'm getting depressed now


How is this depressing you?
Quoting 128. hurricanes2018:


As the models keep shifting west all the weather meds need to stop saying"fish storm"
Quoting 143. FunnelVortex:



No, I'm refering to when there is a spark or flame already burning nearby. I've heard stories about oxygen tanks exploding into a fireball when in a burning building


Not trying to be rude, but again, read the link or due your own research....

Link
Quoting 91. allancalderini:

which is the last hurricane season as of now that the re-analysis have analizee? 1950s or 1960s?


1955

There is a thesis from the graduate student who does a lot of the work that goes to 1963 however I don't think the NHC Best Track Committee has decided on those years yet.
Quoting 148. ChillinInTheKeys:



Not trying to be rude, but again, read the link or due your own research....

Link


I hate being wrong...
Quoting 150. FunnelVortex:



I hate being wrong...


Wrong is fine as long as you're learning... I'm wrong all the time, just ask my wife. ;)

By the way, it's finally dried up a bit down here after a nice wet tropical week.
Quoting 151. ChillinInTheKeys:



Wrong is fine as long as you're learning... I'm wrong all the time, just ask my wife. ;)


Listen. I'm sorry. Sometimes I get low self esteem spikes...
Funnel Vortex, ok..sorry..didn't mean to be insulting. As Chillin said asking questions and learning is always good. I mistakenly thought you were pressing the issue vs asking or learning. My bad on that..I'm not even sure how old you are...
Quoting 150. FunnelVortex:



I hate being wrong...


Happens to all of us all the time. You get used to it. What I hate is being wrong on something I knew already of. Like making dumb math errors on my meteorology test.
Quoting 153. cameronstaugustine:

Funnel Vortex, ok..sorry..didn't mean to be insulting. As Chillin said asking questions and learning is always good. I mistakenly thought you were pressing the issue vs asking or learning. My bad on that..I'm not even sure how old you are...


Suggestion, you can just use the quote button in the future. It's located next to the "action" label and you type your comment under the HTML stuff.
Quoting 147. Camerooski:

As the models keep shifting west all the weather meds need to stop saying"fish storm"
The models aren't shifting west. They are shifting west, north and east because Ida is forecast to just sit there for a few days before it gets carried off by a trough. Could be east or could be west, but the models are worthless on that right now. It will take at least three more days before we really know what's happening
I think this next typhoon that'll form and recurve should push the conus in a more typical El Nino pattern by Oct 1st. semi-permanent East trough/ smiley face split flow. If not then just a brief but deep eastern trough by then. I think this'll be Florida's(Peninsula) first clean frontal sweepage/first of Fall!
Quoting 154. Astrometeor:



Happens to all of us all the time. You get used to it. What I hate is being wrong on something I knew already of. Like making dumb math errors on my meteorology test.


Since it's slow in here today. I made a bumbling answer on this simple science quiz yesterday. Bummed me out for a moment.

Link
Quoting 155. FunnelVortex
Suggestion, you can just use the quote button in the future. It's located next to the "action" label and you type your comment under the HTML stuff.

Thanks - I really wasn't thinking about quoting anyone - my comments started as general vs directed towards someone. Considering that they morphed into being directed to you it would have made it easier to follow along.



Another exposed center moving west for now.
Quoting 150. FunnelVortex:



I hate being wrong...
It happens to me all the time. Believe me, if there was a way to blow up an oxygen tank, I would have found it. Actually, I take that back. I dropped a big E cylinder on its side in the hanger and the valve blew off. Went right through the hangar wall (it was an aluminum building) and came to rest is the parking lot, not hitting any of our multi-hundred thousand dollar command post vehicles or any humans. We took a vote and decided to patch the hole and not file a report. It would have been about a month of paperwork. :-)
Quoting 158. ChillinInTheKeys:



Since it's slow in here today. I made a bumbling answer on this simple science quiz yesterday. Bummed me out for a moment.

Link


12 for 12 but to be honest I guessed on the sound question.
Quoting 158. ChillinInTheKeys:



Since it's slow in here today. I made a bumbling answer on this simple science quiz yesterday. Bummed me out for a moment.

Link
Rats! Put down the wrong answer for water boiling in Denver. Otherwise, I'm nearly the smartest old guy in the universe. :-)
Quoting 162. Astrometeor:



12 for 12 but to be honest I guessed on the sound question.
Thank goodness there were a few radio related questions like that or I'd have come off like a real dope.
Quoting 125. hurricanes2018:




what is going on here with the Cone
That they don't have the slightest idea of the where abouts of Ida, once the stirrings currents collapsed...
Quoting 162. Astrometeor:



12 for 12 but to be honest I guessed on the sound question.



164. sar2401
Rats! Put down the wrong answer for water boiling in Denver. Otherwise, I'm nearly the smartest old guy in the universe. :-)




I would have been 12 for 12 but I clicked the wrong one for astrology though I new the right answer. That's the bumble that I was referring to.
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Why do they all wear a spaghetti on their ear.?
That's so the studio can warn them to stop doing anything disgusting before they get back on the air. :-)
Quoting 156. sar2401:

The models aren't shifting west. They are shifting west, north and east because Ida is forecast to just sit there for a few days before it gets carried off by a trough. Could be east or could be west, but the models are worthless on that right now. It will take at least three more days before we really know what's happening
exactly thats why they need to stop saying "fish storm" because its not definitive...
Quoting 166. ChillinInTheKeys:



Rats! Put down the wrong answer for water boiling in Denver. Otherwise, I'm nearly the smartest old guy in the universe. :-)

I would have been 12 for 12 but I clicked the wrong one for astrology though I new the right answer. That's the bumble that I was referring to.
Yeah, I knew the right one for Denver too and just clicked the wrong button. That's the trouble with crowing too loud about acing a test. With multiple choice, it's often a matter of luck, either good or bad.
It was nice down in South beach and then we landed in New Providence in the Bahamas.It was nice scenery here but I was missing my northern climate and the city lights.I'am a Northern city girl at heart after all :).It rained or was cloudy most of the time down here which is ironic since people were complaining about drought in south Florida earlier in the year and in the Bahamas region.We should be back in D.C Monday night because we're catching a flight this time from MIA so it should be faster.
sar2401:
Thank goodness there were a few radio related questions like that or I'd have come off like a real dope.

That was fun..11/12...missed the sound question as well! Chillin..only reason I knew the water boiling question is because I remember reading years ago that water almost boils at room temp in low pressure settings...or low gravity settings such as space. makes perfect sense..btw...mom said I was perect...hahahah...mom's don't lie do they? (but do notice the odd stats regarding men vs women taking the test you linked..wouldn't have guessed that?)
Quoting 168. Camerooski:

exactly thats why they need to stop saying "fish storm" because its not definitive...
Anyone saying fish storm has probability on their side but not certainty. Smart people don't declare certainty when none exists.
Now since my low self-esteem spike is over, I took this outside of work the other day. It looks like fall :)


Quoting 171. cameronstaugustine:

sar2401:
Thank goodness there were a few radio related questions like that or I'd have come off like a real dope.

That was fun..11/12...missed the sound question as well! Chillin..only reason I knew the water boiling question is because I remember reading years ago that water almost boils at room temp in low pressure settings...or low gravity settings such as space. makes perfect sense..btw...mom said I was perect...hahahah...mom's don't lie do they? (but do notice the odd stats regarding men vs women taking the test you linked..wouldn't have guessed that?)
And age. 65 and older males with a high school education or less did particularly poorly. Geezers who are college graduates like me have giant pulsating brains. :-) I asked my fiance, who's a college graduate nurse and just turned 59 today, the cell phone question. To my dismay, with a whole ham shack 40 feet away, she thought about it for a minute and answered "Sound". I thought she'd know that one by osmosis,.
Quoting 171. cameronstaugustine:

sar2401:
Thank goodness there were a few radio related questions like that or I'd have come off like a real dope.

That was fun..11/12...missed the sound question as well! Chillin..only reason I knew the water boiling question is because I remember reading years ago that water almost boils at room temp in low pressure settings...or low gravity settings such as space. makes perfect sense..btw...mom said I was perect...hahahah...mom's don't lie do they? (but do notice the odd stats regarding men vs women taking the test you linked..wouldn't have guessed that?)


You are correct, the lower the pressure the lower the boiling point. Water will boil at room temperature if the pressure is low enough. Not sure about the gravity's effect though.
Quoting 175. ChillinInTheKeys:



You are correct, the lower the pressure the lower the boiling point. Water will boil at room temperature if the pressure is low enough. Not sure about the gravity's effect though.


I heard water boils at low temperatures when mountain climbers are real high up
Quoting 173. FunnelVortex:

Now since my low self-esteem spike is over, I took this outside of work the other day. It looks like fall :)



Nice picture. In California we'd call that a Thanksgiving sky. The first alto and cirrostratus of the season covering the sky usually showed up somewhere around Thanksgiving. They heralded the first real front of the rainy season, the end of fire season, and the start of snow season in the mountains. I always looked forward to that.
Climbers refer to elevations above 17000' as the death zone because even the most fit climbers deteriorate above that height. Highest permanant human settlement is La Rinconada Peru at 16700'. US standard elevation/hpa chart lists 427hpa at 17000'. I would guess the answer to the question of how low a pressure a person can survive (indefinitely) is slightlt above 427hpa. Also I think Annapurna has an even higher ratio of deaths per summit than K2.
.
Quoting 176. FunnelVortex:



I heard water boils at low temperatures when mountain climbers are real high up
It does indeed. When you are camped at 16,000 feet, you can forget about the idea of ever getting a hard boiled egg, even though the water boils all day long. Getting a hot cup of coffee ain't easy either. :-)
Quoting 177. sar2401:

Nice picture. In California we'd call that a Thanksgiving sky. The first alto and cirrostratus of the season covering the usually showed up somewhere around Thanksgiving. They heralded the first real front of the rainy season, the ned of fire season, and the start of snow season in the mountains. I always looked forward to that.


This was associated with an extratropical cyclone passing through. A precentage of these clouds are the remnants of dead thunderstorm anvils that happened in the western part of the state that morning :)
182. FOREX
18Z GFS showed nothing organized in GOM.
Alright GFS, so Ida will either dissipate or become a Category 5 monster. Gotcha...


18z GFS @240 hours.




12z GFS @240 hours.

Quoting 180. sar2401:

It does indeed. When you are camped at 16,000 feet, you can forget about the idea of ever getting a hard boiled egg, even though the water boils all day long. Getting a hot cup of coffee ain't easy either. :-)


And I heard that water will actually boil away in space very quickly... which is probably why a comet's jets are so powerful
Quoting 183. CybrTeddy:

Alright GFS, so Ida will either dissipate or become a Category 5 monster. Gotcha...


18z GFS @240 hours.




12z GFS @240 hours.




I do not buy either.
GFS keep shifting the track further west.
Quoting 186. washingtonian115:

GFS keep shifting the track further west.
Im telling you... Its not a "fish storm" "I" storm like Ike both are alike
Quoting 187. Camerooski:

Im telling you... Its not a "fish storm" "I" storm like Ike both are alike


"I" storms have always had a rep.

Irene skipped TS status and went right to the northeast

Issac hit NOLA on the anniversary of Katrina

Ingrid became a Cat 2 despite being a sheared mess


The "I" storms I tell ya...
Good convo today...you guys ( and gals) are great..Sar...I'm cracking up. I'll let you get back to the weather..have a pleasant and safe weekend everyone.
Quoting 186. washingtonian115:

GFS keep shifting the track further west.
good news!!!
Invest 96L.




we say goodbye to invest 96L i do not see anything happern
Quoting 176. FunnelVortex:



I heard water boils at low temperatures when mountain climbers are real high up


Yep, when vapor pressure equals atmospheric pressure, water boils.
The less atmospheric pressure, the lower the temperature.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands, and has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Nine.

A broad area of low pressure located about 275 miles off the
northeast coast of Florida is gradually moving toward the northeast
away from the southeastern United States. This low has not shown any
indications of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics,
and the environmental conditions are becoming a little less
favorable for development. However, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this low, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 191. Climate175:

Invest 96L.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands, and has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Nine.

A broad area of low pressure located about 275 miles off the
northeast coast of Florida is gradually moving toward the northeast
away from the southeastern United States. This low has not shown any
indications of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics,
and the environmental conditions are becoming a little less
favorable for development. However, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this low, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
looks like the NHC is this about ready too pull the plug on 96L in there out look tonight
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands, and has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Nine.

A broad area of low pressure located about 275 miles off the
northeast coast of Florida is gradually moving toward the northeast
away from the southeastern United States. This low has not shown any
indications of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics,
and the environmental conditions are becoming a little less
favorable for development. However, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this low, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


seem like after ida are hurricane season may be ending
Quoting 144. HaoleboySurfEC:

Risk to Bermuda.

Actually that position would not really pump much surf to the EC. The best track is just north of all the islands curving poleward between the CONUS and Bermuda. Continental shelf does a number on a swell that has already travelled that far before it gets to the shelf.

I'd suspect a stomach to chest swell at some of the most exposed spots (OBX) from that hypothetical storm.





Yeah just going from my 25 yrs or so of surf forecasting living on Long Island and seeing a model that moved the storm NW or WNW in that area and brought it up to class 3 while doing that would get my heart pumping. One really needs a point break like Turtle Cove in Montauk to make the best of those really long period swells. I agree that really the biggest and best swells are produced when a storm passes west of Bermuda as you said.
Quoting 195. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands, and has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression
Nine.

A broad area of low pressure located about 275 miles off the
northeast coast of Florida is gradually moving toward the northeast
away from the southeastern United States. This low has not shown any
indications of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics,
and the environmental conditions are becoming a little less
favorable for development. However, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this low, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
It looks like it saw a decrease in percentage even more.
Did anyone hear about that irescent cloud in Costa Rica?
Quoting 179. Articuno:

.

I agree with you. When I was in Denver water boiled at about 200 degrees give or take a degree. Takes way longer to cook at higher latitiudes
202. IDTH
Quoting 160. stormpetrol:



Another exposed center moving west for now.


Looking like 2006 Chris
Quoting 201. WeatherConvoy:


I agree with you. When I was in Denver water boiled at about 200 degrees give or take a degree. Takes way longer to cook at higher latitiudes


Someone quoted the wrong post :P Lol xD
Not a person nor model on the planet have any idea what Ida will do. Path and intensity are as much unknowns as I've ever seen. Pretty cool.
Quoting 187. Camerooski:

Im telling you... Its not a "fish storm" "I" storm like Ike both are alike


LOL, there are striking similarities. But condition vary on so many levels from Ike that no real symmetry exists. I hope it fishes. If it were to RI to a strong major and then go West, this place would explode with activity and there would be big problems for the mainland. Fricking I storms, it's always the I storms. Should do like they do with the thirteenth floor of many hotels, just skip it.
206. beell
Quoting 200. FunnelVortex:

Did anyone hear about that irescent cloud in Costa Rica?


cloud iridescence
These clouds are formed of small water droplets of nearly uniform size. When the Sun is in the right position and mostly hidden by thick clouds, these thinner clouds significantly diffract sunlight in a nearly coherent manner, with different colors being deflected by different amounts. Therefore, different colors will come to the observer from slightly different directions.

Beautiful. Wonderful. Seen a couple of cap clouds that displayed this phenomenon.

Angela Fritz further explains this cloud formation in the Washington Post,

This is a pileus cloud, sometimes called a "cap cloud" because of the way it caps the top of the cumulus cloud. They typically form during the early stages of thunderstorm development, when a strong updraft of rising air is present in cumulus clouds. The upward motion of the building cumulus cloud causes the whole layer of air above the storm to rise. The moisture in this thin layer cools and condenses into cloud droplets, which forms the wispy, flat cloud that caps the storm.


ULL in Caribbean?
South of OBX I really need them to go just a hair east of the Bahamas and move slowly. I think Fabian track was one of the better tracks I've seen. I chased that swell from Buxton to Maine. Manasquan failed to impress on that one (to my surprise). I skipped LI and the Cape but hit up Naragansett and Pt. Judith. Scored Ogunquit.

I scored Amagansett up your way in 1997 or 1998 I think. Hurricane B?? maybe.

You guys scored on Hurricane Bill I think. Skunked here, why I don't know. I do miss the point breaks that you guys enjoy. They are the only places that can hold on the biggest swells although I've found some sheltered spots down here that only break when everywhere else is shutting down.

From the GFS scenario we were looking at for Ida, you guys would probably do better than I would although I may be closer to the storm in terms of distance. The hurricane swells always seem to propagate more powerfully from south to north rather than east to west most likely due to the direction the storms normally travel.

Safe travels. Fall is a special time to be in the water up north especially with the changing light and special breaks coming alive. Sometimes truly remarkable.



Quoting 198. DogtownMex:



Yeah just going from my 25 yrs or so of surf forecasting living on Long Island and seeing a model that moved the storm NW or WNW in that area and brought it up to class 3 while doing that would get my heart pumping. One really needs a point break like Turtle Cove in Montauk to make the best of those really long period swells. I agree that really the biggest and best swells are produced when a storm passes west of Bermuda as you said.
AL, 10, 2015091918, , BEST, 0, 152N, 404W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 10, 2015092000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 419W, 30, 1007, TD
Quoting 205. DeepSeaRising:



LOL, there are striking similarities. But condition vary on so many levels from Ike that no real symmetry exists. I hope it fishes. If it were to RI to a strong major and then go West, this place would explode with activity and there would be big problems for the mainland. Fricking I storms, it's always the I storms. Should do like they do with the thirteenth floor of many hotels, just skip it.


i can just imagine the plastic news anchors and apocalyptic special effects on the local stations in Miami if it turned into a CAT 5 and headed this way lol
Tropical Depression Ida...







I've been living in Puerto Escondido for the last 10 yrs so I just watch the E.coast and think about old times. Getting waves from storms thousands of miles away is what it is all about down here, as I'm sure you are well aware. Hope you get a good Ida swell. Peace bro ;-)


Quoting 208. HaoleboySurfEC:

South of OBX I really need them to go just a hair east of the Bahamas and move slowly. I think Fabian track was one of the better tracks I've seen. I chased that swell from Buxton to Maine. Manasquan failed to impress on that one (to my surprise). I skipped LI and the Cape but hit up Naragansett and Pt. Judith. Scored Ogunquit.

I scored Amagansett up your way in 1997 or 1998 I think. Hurricane B?? maybe.

You guys scored on Hurricane Bill I think. Skunked here, why I don't know. I do miss the point breaks that you guys enjoy. They are the only places that can hold on the biggest swells although I've found some sheltered spots down here that only break when everywhere else is shutting down.

From the GFS scenario we were looking at for Ida, you guys would probably do better than I would although I may be closer to the storm in terms of distance. The hurricane swells always seem to propagate more powerfully from south to north rather than east to west most likely due to the direction the storms normally travel.

Safe travels. Fall is a special time to be in the water up north especially with the changing light and special breaks coming alive. Sometimes truly remarkable.




This is only a short cut back as the models show Ida turning into a hurricane over the next few days.
Quoting 209. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 10, 2015091918, , BEST, 0, 152N, 404W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 10, 2015092000, , BEST, 0, 157N, 419W, 30, 1007, TD
wait is that former TD 9?
Quoting 211. GeoffreyWPB:

Tropical Depression Ida...








I see more models shifting west... Ike 2.0 maybe, they have similiar characteristics.
1. Both battled shear along the way, but Ike found sweet spots.
2. Both started at high latitudes.
3. Everyone thought Ike would be a "fish storm"
Lucky you. Every place has its + and - Enjoy.

When kids grow up hopefully I can still handle some exploration.

Quoting 212. DogtownMex:

I've been living in Puerto Escondido for the last 10 yrs so I just watch the E.coast and think about old times. Getting waves from storms thousands of miles away is what it is all about down here, as I'm sure you are well aware. Hope you get a good Ida swell. Peace bro ;-)



Quoting 214. Camerooski:

wait is that former TD 9?



no for TD 10


TD 9 never made it too a TS
is it just me or is former TD 9 looking great?!
Quoting 215. Camerooski:

I see more models shifting west... Ike 2.0 maybe, they have similiar characteristics.
1. Both battled shear along the way, but Ike found sweet spots.
2. Both started at high latitudes.
3. Everyone thought Ike would be a "fish storm"




Did Ike form during El Ninio?
Quoting 207. Starhopper:


ULL in Caribbean?
Wow there is a lot going on in this view, a pair of Upper Level Lows, 96L, remnants of TD 9, and TS Ida. a big conglomerate of swirls.
Quoting 220. FunnelVortex:




Did Ike form during El Ninio?
No, Ike formed during La Nina.
Quoting 220. FunnelVortex:




Did Ike form during El Ninio?
No it was a Neutral-La Nina year
Looks like a bunch of hair. The 17th ensemble member comes close to Bermuda.

Quoting 223. Camerooski:

No it was a Neutral-La Nina year


Then are you sure it is Ike 2.0?
Quoting 154. Astrometeor:



Happens to all of us all the time. You get used to it. What I hate is being wrong on something I knew already of. Like making dumb math errors on my meteorology test.


That's the worst. Nothing like integrating something and realizing you took a derivative somewhere, or worse...forgetting to change signs when messing with trig functions.

Surprisingly I got 12/12 on that quiz, but it helps that I took optics/electromagentism last year.
Quoting 211. GeoffreyWPB:

Tropical Depression Ida...








Denver six layer cake.

Look for pressure to lower in the northwest Caribbean.



Quoting 230. Grothar:

Look for pressure to lower in the northwest Caribbean.




looking quite ominous. Have to watch that area this time of year where storms like forming there and imapcting FLA
Quoting 225. FunnelVortex:



Then are you sure it is Ike 2.0?
The conditions aren't that bad for Ida, lower than what there was shear in carrib. and lower than what there was shear in Atl.
233. SLU
Ida is still a TS

234. SLU
09L

235. JLPR2
Quoting 233. SLU:

Ida is still a TS




Considering how that looks now that the LLC is exposed I would imagine Ida was stronger than a simple 40mph TS when it wasn't.
236. SLU
Quoting 235. JLPR2:



Considering how that looks now that the LLC is exposed I would imagine Ida was stronger than a simple 40mph TS when it wasn't.


Yes I agree. At first light this morning my impression was of a 45 - 50mph TS given its large bands and the center was just northwest of the convection.


Ida,,sweet as apple pie hi hi da, has little or no chance of ever hitting the US mainland. Not with all the fall cold fronts starting to move off the east coast of the United States.
Abraham Levy ‏@hombredeltiempo 12h12 hours ago
Otro (enésimo) estallido de Oeste en el Pacífico Occidental puede producir otra #OndaKelvin a llegar en Diciembre
Quoting 238. Gearsts:

Abraham Levy ‏@hombredeltiempo 12h12 hours ago
Otro (enésimo) estallido de Oeste en el Pacífico Occidental puede producir otra #OndaKelvin a llegar en Diciembre


Good news for rain lovers like me? lol
Quoting 239. CaribBoy:



Good news for rain lovers like me? lol
Explain me... for PR
Quoting 229. Grothar:

Denver six layer cake.


Needs about 30 more layers...Unless that is one serving..:)
Quoting 239. CaribBoy:



Good news for rain lovers like me? lol
Another kelvin wave could develop thanks to a new WWB over the wpac and cpac.
Quoting 232. Camerooski:

The conditions aren't that bad for Ida, lower than what there was shear in carrib. and lower than what there was shear in Atl.
Ida is going to have great difficulty surviving over the next five days. It's going to move north of west until the steering currents collapse, and then wander in circles for at least two days. That's not a good thing for a storm that's starting to get into cooler water and feeling the effects of increased shear. I'm not saying it's doomed, but it hard to beat a bad season. TD9 is gone and 96L is on its last legs. Ida will need some extremely favorable conditions to survive.
Quoting 231. Camerooski:

looking quite ominous. Have to watch that area this time of year where storms like forming there and imapcting FLA
There are about five other states in the way before a a western Caribbean storm gets to Florida. Try not to be too Florida-centric looking at weather.
Quoting 223. Camerooski:

No it was a Neutral-La Nina year
2008 was a moderate La Nina year. It's one of the reasons we were 16-8-5 that year. Conditions in the Atlantic are horrendously worse than 2008. The total ACE for the 2008 season was 146. Our total ACE so far this season is 24.335. It's one thing to want a storm in Florida, but not understanding the facts is not going to make that happen, and it affects your forecasting outlook.
246. vis0
If you read comment #124 of Dr. Masters entry #3117 ya know the deal.
Here that blogbytes link (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOGBYTE for info)

To follow for Dr. Masters entry #3118, tonite Sept. 19 -20 2015 are "visfog" imagery sent through my funktopGal filters. Hopefully i can post img links or just reminders to check album after i upload som,e images. Search for funktopGal in the comments for my latest. Bust watching boxing so some images might be late. Last images are an hour after daylight passes TS IDA.
Here just a few a total of 16 images uploaded so far, BUT only the last 4 of the first 16 uploaded are funktopGal processed.
i'm having trouble with the D&T bar on the SATs, very low quality fonts and in having to copy that area and brighten the text so it looks like date & Time numbers instead of chicken scratches that area might move around as you animate the images.

image host
image host
image host
image host

at least 12 more imgs in the "2015_IDA_TS" imgbox album. Album link is http://imgbox.com/g/TF2gdLarOe

i've decided to post IDA imagery instead of 96L as VIA MY CRAZY THEORIES & SCIENCE OF GALACSICS (do not blame WxU for my nutty, but correct forecasts). i worry that as 96L and the front to NYC's west converge over NYC the majeekal-device i post of will "let go" of influencing IDA therefore IDA can head more westward and my worry is the Antilles being affected by TS IDA's rain.
Seems that sheer/shear is very strong but as we've learned it doesn't take a well formed TS or any storm to create flooding.
Quoting 214. Camerooski:

wait is that former TD 9?
No, that's Ida, which got weaker and may be dropped back to a TD on the next update. Probably keep it a TS for continuity as long as it doesn't get worse.
Hudson Bay High vs. Greenland Low.

Quoting 189. cameronstaugustine:

Good convo today...you guys ( and gals) are great..Sar...I'm cracking up. I'll let you get back to the weather..have a pleasant and safe weekend everyone.
Thanks. I try to yuck it up when we're having a discussion where there's no tragic outcomes.
Quoting 248. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hudson Bay High vs. Greenland Low.


Well, I'm pretty sure where any future Atlantic lows are headed if that comes true.
I need a storm...

Link
Quoting 171. cameronstaugustine:

sar2401:
Thank goodness there were a few radio related questions like that or I'd have come off like a real dope.

That was fun..11/12...missed the sound question as well! Chillin..only reason I knew the water boiling question is because I remember reading years ago that water almost boils at room temp in low pressure settings...or low gravity settings such as space. makes perfect sense..btw...mom said I was perect...hahahah...mom's don't lie do they? (but do notice the odd stats regarding men vs women taking the test you linked..wouldn't have guessed that?)



Yep the clausius clapeyron relation explains all that. A note of warning though before googling, if you're not used to excessive mathematics and physics problem solving, it might be a bit overwhelming.

I'm actually in the thermodynamics region of study in an atmospheric physics class right now, and we are just starting to get into the clausius clapeyron relation right now, so it's fresh on my conscience. Definitely interesting stuff, and people don't often think about how much phase change can vary.

The relation explains why tornadoes are able to often maintain condensation all the way to the ground, without needing much colder temps or a dramatic increase in water vapor content.
Quoting 250. sar2401:

Well, I'm pretty sure where any future Atlantic lows are headed if that comes true.
Yeah, it will likely get caught up with the lower heights across the Atlantic, but that's a Arctic High that would be driving down cold air advection into Maine.



254. vis0
If you read comment #124 of Dr. Masters entry #3117 ya know the deal.
Here that blogbytes link (pg3...IF LOGGED IN) OF THIS DR MASTERS BLOBBYTE for info) ...
More on TS IDA...


image host
PLUS 3 more At the linked album. Copy N paste them create yer own animation, trade them with friends ...sorry, i could not find a way to insert a piece of stale razor blade sharp like "gum" in these sets. (humor for 1980s baseball card collectors)
Album link is http://imgbox.com/g/TF2gdLarOe

BTW as sar2401 noted this is not a fujiware its a kodakmomment...as long as no Human beings are being negatively effected.

If this keeps up and creates a TStorm-ISH bottleneck near the SE i can just see washi115 paddling a cruise liner as to move it quicker back home.

see the leading blob #9??** notice its bring back SSW some build up and IDA's ponytail is building up ESE in the humidity as i state via my crazy theories in the last related comment these storms will act more like expected now that lowering pressures are coming into the USofA's NE.


**(as sar2401 and other state its hard to follow these number combos, yesterday i accidentally  left my phone link on and as i typed to search all ATLANTIC NHC marking 97L disturbance #, and other i accidently dialed a number in Sweden...BTW...Grothar ya owe someone 10 bucks there.
Quoting 233. SLU:

Ida is still a TS


Finally an ascat
256. vis0
If you read comment #124 of Dr. Masters entry #3117 ya know the deal.

just uploaded [jo☺ke]another bakers dozen[jo☺ke] ...after i sampled 9, have been uploaded...here's 1...
image host

...PLUS 3 more At the linked album.

Album link is http://imgbox.com/g/TF2gdLarOe

If the Pope and a certain WxU member in having to avoid TS influences on air movement and both meet up in Western Cuba would that be a wishy washy situation?
Quoting 176. FunnelVortex:



I heard water boils at low temperatures when mountain climbers are real high up


Here at 4000 FAS, canning, pressure canning, jam/jelly making, and sugar work can drive me nuts. Water boils here around 206*F.
Quoting 248. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hudson Bay High vs. Greenland Low.




That low just south of Greenland is also pretty strong haha. May the cold temps become back to the Hudson Bay and the northlands of this planet!!
As far as the QPF for the upcoming early week I don't like the set up of this situation. Qpf of 2-3 inches across many spots of Arizona when their average monthly precip total is under one inch. Fact is they don't get much rainfall at all. So hopefully all is well in the desert and these rainfall estimates don't come to fruition. This El Niño is making noise full swing now. Southern jet is strong ie Florida rain and the SE Florida drought almost gone on the monitor. Hopefully El Niño cools down before he turns into man and does good to all In his path!! Living in Northern California we are hoping for an inch or two of rain each week and a foot of snow each week in the mountains all over the west coast. Who knows, hard to say, global climate is a beast to predict! Wouldn't be fun if we didn't have a hard time predicting it!! Cheers all and thanks for all the info and commentary on the Earths meteorological, climatological, geophysical, astronomical, etc., ongoing!! And a huge shout out to Dr. masters and Dr. Bob Henson!!
260. vis0
If you read comment #124 of Dr. Masters entry #3117 ya know the deal.

4 more...
image host
...PLUS 3 more At the linked album.

Album link is http://imgbox.com/g/TF2gdLarOe

Look the other way IDA is changing.
261. vis0

Quoting 21. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Only in an El Nino season would you see a system strengthening while moving north of 20 North.




i am late2da party (my motto) so if this cmmnt were already discussed then zoom past this comment

i disagree.

Last yr (2014, had no El Nino as to Enso 1,2,~3) and at least 3 strengthened (operative word "strengthen" certainly NOT "they won a beauty contest") going north of 20.

 Fay, G, oh yeah Arthur???.

From 2010 till the present we've had no true Elm Nino yet many "TS" strengthened as they crossed north of 20, as off Florida in 2013???...again many were decoupled and all lop sided, seemingly affected negativly by everything that is not good for TS development but became "stronger" north of 20...again those yrs were not an El Nino year(s), as aquak9 explained El Nino esta en el bano.

The enso caused sheer/shear is acting as if its cause is not originating from the pacific as a push, but as if from the western Atlantic as a pull which allows the ENSO east areas to continue to build/attract  energy/warmth in the ocean...like those blobs in the ENE Pacific ...hmm Capn Trough a Double Agent...cue the Doublemint gum... i mean Double agent music..nonono that's the Alfred Hitchcock tune.
262. vis0

Quoting 62. win1gamegiantsplease:



When playing a real pinball machine, tilting the table (shaking it) is a cheat way to get the ball to move somewhere you want, either to score extra or to prevent it from dropping through.
and if the balls are metal use the opp polarity of 2 string (rare) magnets placed just right so ball avoids dropping
Quoting 262. vis0:


and if the balls are metal use the opp polarity of 2 string (rare) magnets placed just right so ball avoids dropping


See? Now that's cheating!

Does the magnet shop take quarters?
10 days out..both euro and gfs show a Low in the northern gulf................................
CMC says 96L gets blocked from moving northward and.....................................
Navy model also has a Low in the gulf in about 7 days.............................................
Quoting 176. FunnelVortex:



I heard water boils at low temperatures when mountain climbers are real high up
That's nothing; Outside of the USA, water boils at only 100 degrees!
ull is moving sw 57w21n this has been acting as a blocker. will it just circle around? or just keep diving sw?
271. vis0
If you read comment #124 of Dr. Masters entry #3117 ya know the deal.

In about 5 min the START of the last files (9 jpgs ) of this funktopGal series / nighttime visfog on IDA will begin.
Album link is http://imgbox.com/g/TF2gdLarOe

then take my NFL nap. Hope all stay as safe as can be, respect nature and observe.
Quoting 265. LargoFl:

CMC says 96L gets blocked from moving northward and.....................................


I'll take "Things That Will Never Happen" for $500 please.
273. vis0

Quoting 263. Misanthroptimist:


See? Now that's cheating!

Does the magnet shop take quarters?
Only wooden nickels, here i'll swap 10 wooden nickels for yer dollar shhh this deal is ONLY fer ya : - P.

i think Misanthroptimist would have answer with a similar syllabic word as 'shhh..."

274. vis0

Quoting 272. CybrTeddy:



I'll take "Things That Will Never Happen" for $500 please.
If something heading towards Florida on a 500 hr weather model WxU members call it this four letter word
(KEEP IT CLEAN, THE ANSWER CAN BE SAID IN CHURCH)
**cue the popcorn music**
For the first time in what seems like about two months, the Gulf is dominated by high pressure. There is still the remains of the trough that brought all the rain earlier over south Florida that's producing a few widely scattered showers plus just the usual tropical instability producing a few showers further west in the Gulf. As far as I can tell, no station in Florida is currently reporting rain. Looks like a nice Sunday, and a chance for the wet areas to dry out some.

Quoting 272. CybrTeddy:



I'll take "Things That Will Never Happen" for $500 please.
LOL. I'd tend to believe ot more if was parked off Alabama like it usually is every weekend. :-)

Something seems to have gone seriously wrong with the CMC. It did pretty good in 2013 after upgrade. It did a lot worse in 2014, and it's been a disaster in 2015. I rarely see forecasters even refer to it in discussions lately, just the ECMWF and GFS. It's rapidly falling out of the "Big Three" at this point. I wonder what the people in Canada are doing about this?
Quoting 274. vis0:


If something heading towards Florida on a 500 hr weather model WxU members call it this four letter word
(KEEP IT CLEAN, THE ANSWER CAN BE SAID IN CHURCH)
**cue the popcorn music**

"Junk"
"Lies"
"Bull"
"Drop"
"Dump"
"Haha"
"Fail"
"Slop"
"Sick"
"Lame"
"Weak"

Plus all the ones you can't say in church. :-)
278. vis0
i think i've solved the (ENSO) ATL TS shear problem, see zilly pg3  cmmnt#125

CLUE:: ...Baro...!!!
279. vis0

Quoting 277. sar2401:

"Junk"
"Lies"
"Bull"
"Drop"
"Dump"
"Haha"
"Fail"
"Slop"
"Sick"
"Lame"
"Weak"

Plus all the ones you can't say in church. :-)
Lets repeat the question but with the help of Garrett Morris

If something heading towards FLORIDA!!! on a 500 hr!!! weather model WxU members!!! call it this four letter word.

The operative "word" is THE WORD DOESN'T MAKE SENSE (sar2401 you gave words that make sense...weird thing is sar2401 answered next Mondays jeopardy questions correct wow!!! ...Vanna ncstorm show us what sar2401 one...ncstorm softly pointing out a sign that reads:: more sunshine for-ever)

will post answer at 930am so we can focus on weather, apology to mods.

280. vis0
DOOM  !

(now those that just read THIS post are trying to figure, where is this "Doomestic" storm located?

previous error posted "one" instead of "won"...daaaaaaarn! phonetic spell chk!!!

...The correct answer is "what is DOOM !!!"
plenty globs yet only 1 weak tropical storm
283. IDTH
Quoting 265. LargoFl:

CMC says 96L gets blocked from moving northward and.....................................

Quoting 272. CybrTeddy:



I'll take "Things That Will Never Happen" for $500 please.

What is not gonna happen, CORRECT!
Quoting 277. sar2401:

"Junk"
"Lies"
"Bull"
"Drop"
"Dump"
"Haha"
"Fail"
"Slop"
"Sick"
"Lame"
"Weak"

Plus all the ones you can't say in church. :-)


Sigh

285. vis0
The present TS / LOW activities are acting SIMILAR (not exactly) and in a delayed (more Northward) of a version of Sandy.

How so vis0?:: (since no one dares ask a nut Qs)

If one remembers Sandy acted as if energies that where favourable to creating a LOW were all joining inwards towards where Sandy puffed up near Jamaica, as if
there was one big hole deepening wherever Sandy was. In response (in part due to this period of the years weather formations, as troughs digging deeper southward
+ majeekel stuff ) nature developed a blocking of eastward motions including a HIGH east/ne of the USofA's NE.

Today 20150920Sun we see several LOWs heading towards washi1...   i mean North Carolina and what i see WxModels linking up as to a LOW in GoMx or
blob© (Grothar LTD.) in 3-4 days might be this joining of LOWs reaching SW westward to add more plumes of moisture as anything in GoMx might be pushed by ENSO energies
ENE ward towards FL/Carolinas.

GROTHAR:: ahhh, i like plums.

Grothar, read that line again.

8104secs till kickoff...

Lets observe weather, together
Quoting 276. sar2401:

LOL. I'd tend to believe ot more if was parked off Alabama like it usually is every weekend. :-)

Something seems to have gone seriously wrong with the CMC. It did pretty good in 2013 after upgrade. It did a lot worse in 2014, and it's been a disaster in 2015. I rarely see forecasters even refer to it in discussions lately, just the ECMWF and GFS. It's rapidly falling out of the "Big Three" at this point. I wonder what the people in Canada are doing about this?


Hockey season starts in less than 3 weeks, once the blood returns to their heads they might be able to focus and figure something out. They're on puck withdrawal (not to mention cup withdrawal, no team up north has won it in 23 years).
Quoting 285. vis0:

The present TS / LOW activities are acting SIMILAR (not exactly) and in a delayed (more Northward) of a version of Sandy.

How so vis0?:: (since no one dares ask a nut Qs)

If one remembers Sandy acted as if energies that where favourable to creating a LOW were all joining inwards towards where Sandy puffed up near Jamaica, as if
there was one big hole deepening wherever Sandy was. In response (in part due to this period of the years weather formations, as troughs digging deeper southward
+ majeekel stuff ) nature developed a blocking of eastward motions including a HIGH east/ne of the USofA's NE.

Today 20150920Sun we see several LOWs heading towards washi1...   i mean North Carolina and what i see WxModels linking up as to a LOW in GoMx or
blob© (Grothar LTD.) in 3-4 days might be this joining of LOWs reaching SW westward to add more plumes of moisture as anything in GoMx might be pushed by ENSO energies
ENE ward towards FL/Carolinas.

GROTHAR:: ahhh, i like plums.

Grothar, read that line again.

8104secs till kickoff...

Lets observe weather, together


You just committed blogsite virtual suicide. You know that dont you? Im sure you will figure it out in no time. LOL...Gotta love psychology ( my passion)
Quoting 267. Forsaken:

That's nothing; Outside of the USA, water boils at only 100 degrees!


I don't get it
Quoting 288. FunnelVortex:



I don't get it


In C--- like most of the rest of the planet.
This blog site is fun ( sometimes) but also a good study in group psychology. Im constantly analyzing, Cant seem to help it
Quoting 265. LargoFl:

CMC says 96L gets blocked from moving northward and.....................................


CMC showing Sandy 2.0

What else is new?
Quoting 289. cytochromeC:



In C--- like most of the rest of the planet.


when i was in high school many years ago, the message came down that we (USA) were switching entirely to centigrade and kilometers. Hasnt happened yet and that was 40 years ago
Quoting 290. K8eCane:

This blog site is fun ( sometimes) but also a good study in group psychology. Im constantly analyzing, Cant seem to help it


I did a lot of social science studies of group behavior in different settings when I was in school. Human behavior can be very interesting (and quite predictable at times).

On the weather note - today is day two of hot and sunny weather here in S.W. Florida. I'm sure the merchants at the beach will be happy the sun is finally back out.
294. vis0
IDA & company might still head  NNW or N as prognosticated yesterday but at this point n time, what do you think::
(if img is clicked popup to Phify pg. with 1 AD (Ads keeps Phify Phree), click THAT img for full size pg., or cheat..too soon NFL)




Ida has a great lower structure. She just needs to get some more thunderstorms over her center.

When is the shear over Ida expected to decrease?
297. beell
Quoting 296. FunnelVortex:

When is the shear over Ida expected to decrease?


March, 2016
:/
Quoting 297. beell:



March, 2016
:/


Be serious. The NHC is saying that it is eventually supposed to drop enough for some strengthening.
299. beell
Quoting 298. FunnelVortex:



Be serious. The NHC is saying that it is eventually supposed to drop enough for some strengthening.


Ida may just end up between a rock and a hard place with a upper level low to the west and the base of a broad upper trough to the northeast.


09/20 12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-valid @ 36 hrs
Ida's getting closer to the US every minute.
Quoting 299. beell:



Ida may just end up between a rock and a hard place with a upper level low to the west and the base of a broad upper trough to the northeast.


09/20 12Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-valid @ 36 hrs
Hey beell, how's it going, would that region be considered a COL?
302. vis0

Quoting 290. K8eCane:

This blog site is fun ( sometimes) but also a good study in group psychology. Im constantly analyzing, Cant seem to help it
reply at:: zilly pg3 cmmnt#126
Weird. 119 kt winds and 993 mb pressure

i will be glad when this pathetic boring hurricane season is over with! the shear has been insane and doesn't get any better here on out. hopefully winter will be more interesting.
305. beell
Quoting 301. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey beell, how's it going, would that region be considered a COL?


I think so, GT. an upper col. It seems to be getting pretty narrow in successive runs of the GFS. Col turns into a shear axis. I believe the ECMWF keeps the skinny ULAC between the two features to allow lower shear, etc.
Quoting 304. robert88:

i will be glad when this pathetic boring hurricane season is over with! the shear has been insane and doesn't get any better here on out. hopefully winter will be more interesting.


Now hold on, Ida could still do something
Quoting 305. beell:



I think so, GT. an upper col. It seems to be getting pretty narrow in successive runs of the GFS. Col turns into a shear axis. I believe the ECMWF keeps the skinny ULAC between the two features to allow lower shear, etc.
Thank you, beell.
308. txjac
Quoting 306. FunnelVortex:



Now hold on, Ida could still do something


And Ida might not be the last ...
Plenty of time for more waves, invests, depressions, lows, etc ...
And I get to sit and watch it all from sunny, sunny Texas ...still running a bit warm here with 90's during the day
Vis0 should get a featured blog on here by WU. You're a laugh and then some!
Quoting 303. weathergirl2001:

Weird. 119 kt winds and 993 mb pressure



Choose the "Surface Pressure & 10m Wind" option.

I hope nothing forms in the GOM till the end of the season. There's should be enough energy for one to form in a week from now till mid October. I would normally welcome a sheared weak tropical cyclone barreling across Florida, but the Peninsular part of the State, is not in need of any more rain that isn't coming through other weather patterns. However if conditions permitted one heading towards the Panhandle at say 40mph strength, I'd say they'd welcome the rain as would most of the North Gulf Coast.
Quoting 304. robert88:

i will be glad when this pathetic boring hurricane season is over with! the shear has been insane and doesn't get any better here on out. hopefully winter will be more interesting.
I'm sure the people of Dominica would greatly disagree.Just because a Cat 5 has not slammed into the U.S doesn't mean the hurricane season is dead.We witnessed history with Fred back in August and Bill visited my city still well intact after bringing flooding rains to Texas.
Good Morning to all from America's Left Coast and Soo Cal, San Diego in particular. GFS wants to try and send a tropical mass into Soo Cal and Arizona Monday and Tuesday with PWS of 1.5-2.0 inches. This would be like round 5 of tropical weather/hurricane remnants into Soo Call this summer. I will be a glutton for water while the getting is good! Most of the rain though may slide off to the east in Soo Cal desert's and Arizona.........hope we get a little bit to set another summertime precip record!

Per 12z GFS

24 Hours:


48 Hours:

Thanks. 90 kts still seems high for 993 mb central pressure

Quoting 310. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Choose the "Surface Pressure & 10m Wind" option.




Holy...
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