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Linda’s Moisture Contributes to Heavy Rain, Deadly Flooding in Southwest

By: Bob Henson 6:32 PM GMT on September 15, 2015

Utah experienced its single deadliest flash flood on record on Monday, and Los Angeles saw one of the wettest September days in its history, as moisture from the remnants of former Category 3 Hurricane Linda was carried into the Southwest. Strong thunderstorms on Monday afternoon sent torrents of water downstream into a crossroads in the steep terrain just northeast of the town of HIldale, at the Utah/Arizona border just south of Zion National Park. Two vehicles carrying 16 people were swept away by water and debris on Monday afternoon. At least 8 of the 16 occupants died, with 3 others rescued; a woman and four children remain missing. Flash floods are a particular risk in this area because of its steep terrain and narrow canyons, which make it hard to judge one’s risk. Floodwaters can pour into areas where little or no rain has fallen. The downpour was focused in and near the cliffs just upstream (north) of Hildale.


Figure 1. National Weather Service NEXRAD radar reflectivity from 2:20 pm MDT Monday, Sept. 14, 2015, shows an intense thunderstorm with very heavy precipitation (bright red) centered in far southeast Washington County, Utah, near the town of Hildale. A flash flood warning was issued at 2:22 pm for the area. Additional heavy rain struck about two hours later. Image credit: NWS and RAL Real-Time Weather Page.


Figure 2. Debris and water cover the ground after a flash flood Monday, Sept. 14, 2015, in Hildale, Utah. Image credit: Mark Lamont, via AP.


The isolated heavy thunderstorms over Utah and Arizona on Monday emerged as a rich stream of Pacific moisture, with some contribution from Linda’s remnants, intersected with a seasonally strong upper-level trough now making its way across the western United States. Atmospheric soundings from Monday show above-average amounts of water vapor, but even higher amounts have been reported this time of year, so the meteorological setup was not particularly extreme. “I don't see the conditions across Utah as being all that unusual,” Jim Steenburgh (University of Utah) told me. “This is a monsoonal pattern producing monsoon convection.  Flash floods are a natural component of the monsoon system and the geology of the Colorado Plateau.”

As is often the case in flash floods, part of the disaster can be attributed to bad meteorological luck--the fact that an intense thunderstorm happened to develop and move slowly through a particular spot prone to flash flooding. Steenburgh analyzed the topography and meteorology involved in this tragedy this morning at his Wasatch Weather Weenies blog. As shown in Figure 1, an intense thunderstorm struck around 2:20 pm MDT; it was followed by a second intense cell that struck the same area around 4:15 pm MDT (see Steenburgh’s blog for a radar loop). “There is a possibility that the two storms provided a one-two blow that resulted in a more substantial flash flood event than if either had occurred in isolation,” noted Steenburgh. In an email, he added that there is some uncertainty over whether or not the fatal accident happened after the first cell or the second.

Forecasters at the Salt Lake City office of the National Weather Service recognized early Monday morning that a moderate risk of flash flooding existed in southern Utah, and that morning’s hazardous weather outlook warned of the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially across southern Utah. The office issued a flash flood warning at 2:22 pm MDT for southwestern Kane and southeastern Washington counties, including the Hildale area, noting that radar estimates indicated at least 2” of rain had fallen.

New high-resolution models have increased the ability of forecasters to project the evolution of thunderstorms several hours in advance, but the hugely varied terrain of the Southwest, and the resulting complex patchwork of atmospheric conditions, makes it very difficult to give much advance warning of the kind of flood that struck near Hildale. Further north, Salt Lake City was also hammered by fast-developing thunderstorms that struck the University of Utah campus within 15 minutes of their formation. This prompted UU’s Steenburgh to reflect on the challenges of forecasting in his blog on Monday, prior to the Hildale flood: “There is no human or computer-based forecast tool available today that can reliably forecast the development of a storm cell from nothing on such short time scales...Essentially, developing computer models that can provide detailed and reliable forecasts of convective storms at short lead times represents the holy grail of nowcasting. This is an area of active research in the atmospheric sciences and perhaps we will make some inroads in the coming years and decades, if not for storms like the [Salt Lake City storm], perhaps for severe convective phenomena like derechos and supercells.”


Figure 3. Commuter traffic makes its way slowly along Interstate 10 in downtown Los Angeles amid heavy rain on Tuesday morning, Sept. 15, 2015. Image credit: AP Photo/Richard Vogel.

Heavy rain hits coastal Southern California
Hollywood and environs are getting a sneak preview today of what could be a meteorological blockbuster this winter. The feed of moisture that includes Linda’s remnants is combining with upper-level energy from the Western trough to produce unusually heavy rains for so early in the autumn, with widespread 1” to 2” amounts from the Los Angeles area to northern San Diego County. Several highways have been closed, and more than 100 people were evacuated from a flooded assisted-living center in West Hollywood, as reported by KTLA and the Los Angeles Times. Unfortunately, the rains are too far south to help douse the devastating wildfires now unfolding in northern California.

From midnight through 9:47 am PDT Tuesday, downtown Los Angeles racked up 2.39” of rain, making it the second-wettest September day on record. Only six other September days have yielded more than 1” of rain in downtown LA, where records date back to 1877:

3.96” Sept. 25, 1939
2.39” Sept. 15, 2015 (through 9:47 am PDT)
1.95” Sept. 24, 1986
1.74” Sept. 10, 1976
1.62” Sept. 24, 1939
1.58” Sept. 30, 1983
1.39” Sept. 18, 1965

El Niño conditions were in place and intensifying during all of these events except for 1983, just after the “super” El Niño of 1982-83 had wound down. Since El Niño tends to increase the number of hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific, it’s not surprising that several of the above events were associated with decaying tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Newton (1986), Hurricane Kathleen (1976), Tropical Storm Octave (1983), and the memorable cyclone in 1939 that made landfall near Long Beach as a full-fledged tropical storm (1939), producing a two-day total of 5.58” at downtown Los Angeles and a storm total of 11.60” at Mount Wilson. (Thanks to Jon Erdman and Jen Watson of The Weather Channel for data on the September rains.)



Figure 4. The WU tracking map was devoid of tropical storm names at 1:40 pm EDT on Tuesday, September 15, 2015.

Earth was free of named tropical cyclones on Tuesday morning
There were no named tropical storms on the planet on Tuesday morning, the second such period to occur this month after a 54-hour streak last weekend (the longest such streak September since 2009, according to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University). The tropics aren’t completely tranquil, though, as several systems are being monitored for potential development.


Figure 5. An infrared image from Meteosat-9 shows Invest 95L (far left) and Invest 93L (center) at 1500 GMT (11:00 am EDT) on Tuesday, September 15, 2015. Image credit: EUMETSAT and NHC.

Invest 95L is the healthiest of the Atlantic waves, with a large area of showers and thunderstorms gradually consolidating south of the Cape Verde islands. Toward the central Atlantic, Invest 93L enlarged substantially overnight, although its convection is somewhat scattered. The National Hurricane Center gives both 95L and 93L a 60% chance of development by Thursday. Models generally support the idea of both 95L and 93L becoming tropical storms later this week. However, as upper-level troughs are now beginning to dig further southward toward the subtropical Atlantic, both systems are likely to recurve long before they have a chance to threaten the Caribbean or North America. The center of Invest 94L has now moved into Mexico near Tampico, although there remains extensive thunderstorm activity to its east under a region of fairly high wind shear (greater than 20 mph). In the Northeast Pacific, Invest 90E should spin harmlessly in open water, with NHC giving it only a 10% chance of development in the next five days.

The one system on Earth now showing potential to become a major tropical cyclone is Tropical Storm Twenty, whose winds reached minimal tropical-storm strength at 1200 GMT Tuesday. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects TS 20 to strengthen into a Category 3 typhoon as it recurves just east of Iwo Jima by Friday.

Bob Henson




Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This is so exciting. There will be a tropical system heading toward Florida on October 1st! Should I start putting up my plywood now? LOL!

Thank you Bob Henson......nice rain in Soo Cal!

Some Soo Cal updated rainfall totals as of a hour ago, some decent totals for September. Nice totals in the mountains where it it needed worst of all to wet the forests and vegetation. By LINK! LOL

Link
Thank you Mr. Henson! Lots of friends and family in SoCal enjoying the showers today.. Nothing like living in an arid locale to gain an appreciation for the precipitation!
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015


Excerpt:

...POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MX...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO AGREE ON
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MX. THE 12Z NAM
AND 00Z CMC/UKMET ARE THE FIRST PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO SHOW THIS
CYCLONE FORMATION...ALBEIT WITH DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT. THE 12Z
GFS SHOWS A MORE SUBTLE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT EVENTUALLY
SHOWS SLOW DEEPENING OF THE LOW. MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS DO
SHOW A TREND TOWARD MORE MEMBERS INDICATING A LOW CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MX. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF SUITE IS MUCH
FLATTER NOT SHOWING ANY REAL CYCLONIC FLOW. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...FEEL A LOW WILL DEVELOPMENT...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC/UKMET. WPC FAVORS A COMBINATION
OF THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN WHICH IS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.
3.14" here in Altamonte Springs. Flooding occurring all over the place. Just unreal how hard that rain came down and this event is just beginning. I'd say we are in trouble folks.
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

3.14" here in Altamonte Springs. Flooding occurring all over the place. Just unreal how hard that rain came down and this event is just beginning. I'd say we are in trouble folks.



The Orlando metro got hit hard.
Thank You Dr. Henson. Sad news for Cali with flooding rains in the South part and the wild fires further to the North. Only really the beginning of the hard impacts that different parts of Conus will face this Fall and Winter as we go into the El Nino Winter pattern; then things will shift to the Mid-West and Lower MS Delta Valley in the Spring with the potential for a severe El Nino driven tornado season on the heels of snow melt and potential river flooding.

At least the El Nino has benefited us in terms of the Atlantic hurricane season............................................ ...

the new 12z CMC shows the remnants of grace turning into a strong cat 2 hurricane then hitting south Texas but this model does tend to be crazy. Still we should keep this in mind.
Quoting 8. James1981cane:

the new 12z CMC shows the remnants of grace turning into a strong cat 2 hurricane then hitting south Texas but this model does tend to be crazy. Still we should keep this in mind.
The CMC is always predicting crazy things. They had 3 cat 1 hurricanes forming off the coast of the Carolinas last week soooo
Quoting 1. fmbill:

This is so exciting. There will be a tropical system heading toward Florida on October 1st! Should I start putting up my plywood now? LOL!


I would evacuate!!!
Ha..

THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC/UKMET ARE THE FIRST PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO SHOW THIS CYCLONE FORMATION



Quoting 4. nrtiwlnvragn:

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015


Excerpt:

...POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MX...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO AGREE ON
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MX. THE 12Z NAM
AND 00Z CMC/UKMET ARE THE FIRST PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO SHOW THIS
CYCLONE FORMATION...ALBEIT WITH DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT. THE 12Z
GFS SHOWS A MORE SUBTLE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT EVENTUALLY
SHOWS SLOW DEEPENING OF THE LOW. MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS DO
SHOW A TREND TOWARD MORE MEMBERS INDICATING A LOW CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MX. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF SUITE IS MUCH
FLATTER NOT SHOWING ANY REAL CYCLONIC FLOW. GIVEN THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE...FEEL A LOW WILL DEVELOPMENT...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z CMC/UKMET. WPC FAVORS A COMBINATION
OF THE 12Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN WHICH IS A GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.

not saying anything won't develop because that area of the Gulf has spun up two lows recently. However, the latest NAM barely has it getting to tropical storm status, if that, and the CMC has it hitting Mexico in 14 days. Hardly reliable.
WPC indicates the blog will have a low in the GOM for the next six days to argue blog about.






Link
Quoting 8. James1981cane:

the new 12z CMC shows the remnants of grace turning into a strong cat 2 hurricane then hitting south Texas but this model does tend to be crazy. Still we should keep this in mind.


On the model run peak intensity was 994 MB. Just for grins if the model were accurate it would struggle to qualify as a minimal cat 1 - much less a strong cat 2. Here's a frame at 204 hours. It remains at steady intensity afterwards before moving inland.

What's with the twin lows on either side of Florida? Really?!!

Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. Henson. Sad news for Cali with flooding rains in the South part and the wild fires further to the North. Only really the beginning of the hard impacts that different parts of Conus will face this Fall and Winter as we go into the El Nino Winter pattern; then things will shift to the Mid-West and Lower MS Delta Valley in the Spring with the potential for a severe El Nino driven tornado season on the heels of snow melt and potential river flooding.

At least the El Nino has benefited us in terms of the Atlantic hurricane season............................................ ...



If I'm not mistaken, El Nino usually results in FEWER tornadoes.


need to be watch
Some of the models are showing one huge low off the East coast...







TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N42W ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N42W THROUGH THE LOW TO 08N42W MOVING
NW N NEAR 10 KT. A 30 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE
/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE FROM 13N43W TO 14N41W TO 12N40W. ANOTHER 30 NM WIDE
BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 08N45W TO 09N42W TO 11N41W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS JUST S OF THE LOW WITHIN 45 NM OF 11N42W.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1011 MB BROAD LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR
10N24W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N24W THROUGH
THE LOW TO 08N24W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 11N24W
TO 12N27W TO 14N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SW OF THE
LOW AND WAVE FROM 08N-09N BETWEEN 25W-29W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This could be the last of it. 1.63" @Indian Hills PWS
Quoting 5. StormTrackerScott:

3.14" here in Altamonte Springs. Flooding occurring all over the place. Just unreal how hard that rain came down and this event is just beginning. I'd say we are in trouble folks.


Will become more of a national story soon. This El-Nino season is taking Florida for a wild ride and it's a long way from over, headed towards peak. Hottest year on record likely, two historic in sense of fatality heat waves, Arctic sea ice levels down to top two or three for lowest totals on record, record monthly rains for Texas and Oklahoma earlier in the spring, and we've seen Hawaii's SST's to the point they're dodging hurricanes all season and the waters are hot enough to support a major strike on Hawaii. Season also showed how hyper active the Central Pacific can be with the right SST's . And the list goes on, wow, what a year climate wise.
Quoting 1. fmbill:

This is so exciting. There will be a tropical system heading toward Florida on October 1st! Should I start putting up my plywood now? LOL!


maybe i need to buy some plywood for my house!
Quoting 15. fmbill:

What's with the twin lows on either side of Florida? Really?!!




I mentioned that yesterday that the models were coming into agreement on this..it was quickly shot down though..I guess the WPC doesn't read comments here..
Quoting 13. nrtiwlnvragn:

WPC indicates the blog will have a low in the GOM for the next six days to argue blog about.






Link
argue
TXNT22 KNES 151804
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 15/1745Z

C. 23.1N

D. 97.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTNERN DEFINED BY LOOSE CLOUD LINES,
PROXIMITY NEAR OVERCAST, VERY SMALL SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150915 1745 23.1 97.0 T1.0/1.0 94L 94L
Quoting 27. hurricanes2018:

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150915 1745 23.1 97.0 T1.0/1.0 94L 94L
1&1/2inches..e.cen.florida
Quoting 29. islander101010:

1&1/2inches..e.cen.florida



i see a spin in the water
ASCAT leaves alot to the imagination on it's recent pass of 94L.

Quoting 31. Skyepony:

ASCAT leaves alot to the imagination on it's recent pass of 94L.





Two lows??
Quoting 24. ncstorm:



I mentioned that yesterday that the models were coming into agreement on this..it was quickly shot down though..I guess the WPC doesn't read comments here..

I wrote about it this morning. Honest, you can go back and look. :):) I wasn't shot down, but totally ignored.
Tropical Storm Ida May Form in Atlantic This Week

The Atlantic hurricane season is still in full swing and a couple tropical systems in the central part of the basin may develop this week.
The first system, which the National Hurricane Center has designated 93L, remains poorly organized and is spinning several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

This system is consisted of just an oval-shaped area of rotating clouds with only a few small areas of thunderstorms,"
"This system seems to be ingesting dry, stable air located just north of the system. If organized thunderstorms and convective clouds fail to develop around this system within the next day or two, this feature will probably fail to fully develop."
Quoting 6. tampabaymatt:




The Orlando metro got hit hard.


Major road closures on UCF campus due to flooding, police diverting traffic.



going down fast!!
Quoting 37. hurricanes2018:




going down fast!!
Quoting 16. BayFog:


If I'm not mistaken, El Nino usually results in FEWER tornadoes.


Not for FL. El Nino increases tornado risk substantially for the peninsula.


18z NAM is coming in more East...more rain over Florida..
atm. got to be positive mojo in the western atlantic
HWRF strengthens 95L into a strong cat 2...
Quoting 40. georgevandenberghe:



Not for FL. El Nino increases tornado risk substantially for the peninsula.





I'm looking up tornado outbreaks in FL and what ENSO cycle was occurring at the time. The first two that popped in my head was from 1998 and 2007, and they both did occur during pretty strong El Nino periods. Small sample size so far but it is matching up.

Another note; The 1998 outbreak is considered one of the worst, and did coincide with the 1997 El Nino, which was one of the strongest recorded. Not saying it is a firm connection but it follows the trend so far.
Quoting 41. ncstorm:

18z NAM is coming in more East...more rain over Florida..
At end of runs starts to move westward.lol
Quoting 21. DeepSeaRising:



Will become more of a national story soon. This El-Nino season is taking Florida for a wild ride and it's a long way from over, headed towards peak. Hottest year on record likely, two historic in sense of fatality heat waves, Arctic sea ice levels down to top two or three for lowest totals on record, record monthly rains for Texas and Oklahoma earlier in the spring, and we've seen Hawaii's SST's to the point they're dodging hurricanes all season and the waters are hot enough to support a major strike on Hawaii. Season also showed how hyper active the Central Pacific can be with the right SST's . And the list goes on, wow, what a year climate wise.


It's not been a remarkable year in the Mid Atlantic other than extreme cold in Feb and an extremely early (Early May) beginning of summer. Also extreme wetness in June and a flip flop to moderate to severe (not extreme) dryness in July and August and .. .. .. .. ??. The summer has been notable for overall above normal temperatures but lack of extreme heat unlike 2012, 2011, and 2010. Persistence of warmth and dryness into fall is becoming notable.

I am noticing a weak cold air damming signal in the GFS next week, will see if it verifies.

I am expecting an "interesting" winter.
Quoting 15. fmbill:

What's with the twin lows on either side of Florida? Really?!!




Grace remnants in Eastern Gulf now, Second coming up from Greater Antilles as we speak.

Quoting 35. ncstorm: USRAD



GOM is now controlling moisture inflow. I can't even wishcast a decent prognosis for 94L. And Centex needs that moisture desperately, on a 3-month no-precip run, temps going back up towards 100 in 10-day.
El Nino's greatest impacts in Florida are felt in the winter time. Cold, Wet and lots of Non-Tropical lows coming up out of the Gulf and low riding troughs which enhances Tornado's.

1993 Storm Of The Century
Quoting 49. ProgressivePulse:

El Nino's greatest impacts in Florida are felt in the winter time. Cold, Wet and lots of Non-Tropical lows coming up out of the Gulf and low riding troughs which enhances Tornado's.

1993 Storm Of The Century


1993 was not an El Nino year.


Click image for a larger pic.
"The WU tracking map was devoid of tropical storm names at 1:40 pm EDT on Tuesday, September 15, 2015."

Why isn't Tropical Storm 20 named something different?
93L

94L

95L

tiggerhurricanes2001 I hope it doesn't intensify more than that I only had 1 major in the hurricane season contest!
Quoting 52. tornadodude:

"The WU tracking map was devoid of tropical storm names at 1:40 pm EDT on Tuesday, September 15, 2015."

Why isn't Tropical Storm 20 named something different?

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the one that designated it as Tropical Storm 20W, but The Japan Meteorological Agency is the one that names the systems. If they don't have it classified as a tropical storm (which they do independent of JTWC), it doesn't have a name. JMA is actually the official agency for the WPac, and they have upgraded 20W to Tropical Storm Krovanh as of 18Z.

I know, it's a little confusing to those unfamiliar with the basin.
Quoting 54. weathergirl2001:

tiggerhurricanes2001 I hope it doesn't intensify more than that I only had 1 major in the hurricane season contest!

Lol i had 3!!!!

93 and 94 have some dry air ...What's by Puerto Rico?

A RATHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W N OF 11N EXTENDING N
TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN THE 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. AS THE
WAVE AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SURFACE WINDS SHIFTED FROM NE-E TO SE IN DIRECTION
THERE. THE LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM E AND
120 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 13N. MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.


we have invest 93L AND INVEST 95L and two more tropical waves to watch
1998

Florida wasn%u2019t immune to wild weather either, as a strong southern jet stream brought storminess
to the %u201CSunshine State.%u201D Severe thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 104 mph in Miami, 90
mph in Hollywood, and 66 mph in Homestead on the 2nd and 3rd of the month. Over 220,000
Florida Power and Light customers were left without power, as the company said damage to its
system was the worst since the %u201CStorm of the Century%u201D in March 1993. Another batch of severe
thunderstorms spawned deadly tornadoes across central Florida on February 22-23, killing 42
people. See below for further details on the flooding in California and tornadoes in Florida.

Florida Tornadoes
During the late evening of February 22 and early morning of February 23, 1998, a series of
tornadoes ripped across central Florida. At least one of the tornadoes reached an estimated F4
intensity. Forty-two fatalities occurred, over 800 residences were destroyed, another 700 were
left uninhabitable, over 3500 were damaged to some extent, and 135,000 utility customers lost
power at the height of the storms. Damages from the tornado outbreak exceeded $60 million, and
Florida%u2019s overall storm damage total since last fall is approximately $500 million. Hardest hit
locations in the tornado outbreak were Winter Garden, Altamonte Springs, Sanford, and
Campbell. See Figures 9-11 for NEXRAD images of the storms. Overall, 54 of Florida%u2019s 67
counties were declared federal disaster areas due to storms over the past few months.

Quoting 44. Stoopid1:



I'm looking up tornado outbreaks in FL and what ENSO cycle was occurring at the time. The first two that popped in my head was from 1998 and 2007, and they both did occur during pretty strong El Nino periods. Small sample size so far but it is matching up.

Another note; The 1998 outbreak is considered one of the worst, and did coincide with the 1997 El Nino, which was one of the strongest recorded. Not saying it is a firm connection but it follows the trend so far.


1958 was also an El Nino year, producing a remarkably cold and stormy (midlatitude low kind of storms) winter across the Florida peninsula, and a severe tornado outbreak April 15.

BTW 1998 also produced exceptional May/June heat, drought and wildfires in FL after a very wet winter.
Would someone share the latest available US Drought monitor image, and perhaps one from some months ago? Wanna see the difference last few months have made.

A few showers around PR..might help some.
Quoting 61. skycycle:

Would someone share the latest available US Drought monitor image, and perhaps one from some months ago? Wanna see the difference last few months have made.

Might help...Link
Wow wee! Spaghetti models I'm impressed.
Quoting 64. Wrass:

Wow wee! Spaghetti models I'm impressed.

No feed. : )
Seems high pressure may block 93L's travels NWard in time.



95L defying the models as well.

How much rain should central florida get over the next 5 days ? anyone have a clue
Quoting 67. Patrap:




I can see that rotation in 94L..That like a new LLC or is it in the mid levels...
Whole lotta nothing going on in the gulf.
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

Whole lotta nothing going on in the gulf.
Only the most unreliable non-tropical models are predicting anything.
Panama City Beach MET just said that any low that does develop will not come to the panhandle because high pressure to the north will keep it well offshore it will never reach here.
Quoting 60. georgevandenberghe:



1958 was also an El Nino year, producing a remarkably cold and stormy (midlatitude low kind of storms) winter across the Florida peninsula, and a severe tornado outbreak April 15.

BTW 1998 also produced exceptional May/June heat, drought and wildfires in FL after a very wet winter.

Feb of 1998, 37 died in tornadoes across Central FL. There was one miracle baby found nearly unharmed in a tree. 1982-1883 EL nino had FL tornado out breaks too. True about the drought after the wet severe winter. Central FL burned not just the 1998 episode but the early 80s & the 1965-1966 El Nino. They evacuated Kennedy Space Center for that one. Sort of not looking forward to next summer.
Quoting 73. FOREX:

Panama City Beach MET just said that any low that does develop will not come to the panhandle because high pressure to the north will keep it well offshore it will never reach here.


About the same here, TX/LA, from Lake Charles NWS.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GENERAL AREA OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL OR EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SHEAR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...TO KEEP ANY DISTURBANCE...WEAK AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT THIS SYSTEM COULD DRAW EVEN MORE DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Quoting 66. ProgressivePulse:

Seems high pressure may block 93L's travels NWard in time.




May make a come back and head west again... FLA needs to watch this one. Could pull the same track Andrew pulled... IM NOT CALLING THIS ANDREW.
Quoting 57. Starhopper:


93 and 94 have some dry air ...What's by Puerto Rico?

A



I wonder whether the moisture passing through the FL Straits and the leftover moisture in the W GOM will produce a volatile mix to work up something.
Lots of clouds in the GOM but nothing appears as a 'tropical event'.
Quoting 53. Starhopper:

93L

94L

95L




Say, there seems to be another area of slight circulation just east of where the Low is, officially, off the coast of Mexico. (See middle loop.)
Quoting 32. Grothar:




Two lows??


Yep, not my imagination.
Two lows, apparently.
See the edge of the red windfield indicators, where the changes are.
That's the spot, and far enough off the coast to possibly develop & make use of available moisture.
Quoting 59. ProgressivePulse:

1998

Florida wasn%u2019t immune to wild weather either, as a strong southern jet stream brought storminess
to the %u201CSunshine State.%u201D Severe thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 104 mph in Miami, 90
mph in Hollywood, and 66 mph in Homestead on the 2nd and 3rd of the month. Over 220,000
Florida Power and Light customers were left without power, as the company said damage to its
system was the worst since the %u201CStorm of the Century%u201D in March 1993. Another batch of severe
thunderstorms spawned deadly tornadoes across central Florida on February 22-23, killing 42
people. See below for further details on the flooding in California and tornadoes in Florida.

Florida Tornadoes
During the late evening of February 22 and early morning of February 23, 1998, a series of
tornadoes ripped across central Florida. At least one of the tornadoes reached an estimated F4
intensity. Forty-two fatalities occurred, over 800 residences were destroyed, another 700 were
left uninhabitable, over 3500 were damaged to some extent, and 135,000 utility customers lost
power at the height of the storms. Damages from the tornado outbreak exceeded $60 million, and
Florida%u2019s overall storm damage total since last fall is approximately $500 million. Hardest hit
locations in the tornado outbreak were Winter Garden, Altamonte Springs, Sanford, and
Campbell. See Figures 9-11 for NEXRAD images of the storms. Overall, 54 of Florida%u2019s 67
counties were declared federal disaster areas due to storms over the past few months.




And that is why there is cause for concern for there being onf the strongest El Nino events on record this winter. Sure it doesn't guarantee it, but the signal of unusually heavy rains and severe weather is much more likely with an unusually strong El Nino signal compared to a moderate or weak one.

BTW, 104 mph gusts in Miami from thunderstorms? That's insane, that's like one of those unusually strong derechos that happen in early summer in the plains...
Quoting 1. fmbill:

This is so exciting. There will be a tropical system heading toward Florida on October 1st! Should I start putting up my plywood now? LOL!




I'd say keep an eye on the GOM near Mexico yet...and watch out for anything that could threaten the Texas/LA coasts. If something forms, it is real close already - might not give much time, especially is a front comes across and pulls it up fast.
Weather sure is getting active, the mess in Gulf, ex-Grace, 93L, 95L more waves coming off of Africa. Dark clouds with occasional rain coming in off the Atlantic into Melbourne.
85. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
Sat Type:: WV (4km imagery)

Though i was posting this AniGif(21.7MB) to show the outflow from a Yucatan Peninsula system go way NNW, i wonder if the outflow contributed to moisture stacking upwards thus falling more on a compact area causing the floods that were mentioned on this blogbyte.


Quoting 78. rmbjoe1954:

Lots of clouds in the GOM but nothing appears as a 'tropical event'.


It has not formed yet.
Quoting 81. Jedkins01:



And that is why there is cause for concern for there being onf the strongest El Nino events on record this winter. Sure it doesn't guarantee it, but the signal of unusually heavy rains and severe weather is much more likely with an unusually strong El Nino signal compared to a moderate or weak one.

BTW, 104 mph gusts in Miami from thunderstorms? That's insane, that's like one of those unusually strong derechos that happen in early summer in the plains...


Seems most El Nino events have a significant storm or two to tag with it.
TWO CANYONEERS DIED IN KEYHOLE CANYON IN
ZION NP. FIVE OTHERS REMAIN MISSING. TIME OF THE TWO
FATALITIES IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 300 AND 600 PM MDT
ON 09/14/2015.
Quoting 86. MahFL:



It has not formed yet.


And moisture/energy is being drawn into the GOM, rather than being siphoned off like yesterday. One night me, Patrap and MoonlightCowboy were up watching a GOM storm being born, it was stunning. Once all the extraneous lows are sent on their way, the 'main' low starts fetching in moisture in pure melee until it all collapses and coalesces into *something*.
Quoting 86. MahFL:



It has not formed yet.
and nothing will so stop trying to panic people
Quoting 87. ProgressivePulse:



Seems most El Nino events have a significant storm or two to tag with it.
Florida usually gets hit with some rough and wet winters during a strong El Nino. Tornadoes struck at night February 22-23, killing 42, injuring 260 and was the worst outbreak since March 17 1962.. One tracked 30 miles and some near F-4..Knowing that it was the worst and deadliest outbreak seen in the state , I kept the newspaper headlines. In 82-83, there was some severe weather, but not much was said of it, probably because it was not linked to the Nino, and winter squalls are not particularly rare. What was rare was the long duration of gale force winds occurring over the gulf and west coast. One lasted three solid days and was quite an event. I should add that these tornadoes happened just north of Orlando, had they hit there , the death toll would have almost certainly been higher.
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE INTENSIFYING FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALL OF THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT AT NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2" THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AND AT
ANYTIME. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT, HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERALL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY IF A CONVERGENT BAND
SETS UP AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE LONGER PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SHOWERS.

Link


watching invest 93L TONIGHT
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt .cgi?a=gom_nam_slp%uFFFD
Interesting.
If the pic doesn't post, here is the link for the loop:%uFFFDhttp://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display _alt.cgi?a=gom_nam_slp.%uFFFD

Sorry, didn't go.
Maybe check it out though: it is a forecast loop for the GOM.
Well hello everyone. I've been reading this blog for about 6 months. Extremely fun and informative(sometimes). I am also fascinated by tropical weather and somewhat knowledgable. My job also has to do with it,working storm response for all major power companies north and in the south. Been awhile since anything happened south of Mason Dixon line. Just thought I would chime in with 2 cents. Maybe a nickle. How bout our 2015 winter? Crazy!!!!!!!!!


THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MAKE INVEST 93L go west at the end


Strong winds, but what a mess , any center is practically on the coast and half on land
103. vis0
Quoting 85. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA
Sat Type:: WV (4km imagery)

Though i was posting this AniGif(21.7MB) to show the outflow from a Yucatan Peninsula system go way NNW, i wonder if the outflow contributed to moisture stacking upwards thus falling more on a compact area causing the floods that were mentioned on this blogbyte.



BTW the flow in this aniGif is just AFTER the Utah floods BUT there was a similar but more WNW (not NNW) as if going around a HIGH WV flow ~24 hrs before that turns more N just south of Utah. i have it in a SPoRT aniGif but its 8 or 16km not as clear as the 4Km which i think i did not dwnld but will search
Quoting 95. MahFL:



Floridians don't panic about Tropical Cyclones.
Ur exactly right. My neighbor hasn't prepared for a tropical cyclone in the past 11 years. (Jeanne, Frances, Katrina, and Wilma) lol



starting to warm up again
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located about midway between the Cape Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a little more shower
activity than it was yesterday. Some development of this low is
possible during the next day or so before upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at
about 10 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent



Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with a
broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south-southwest
of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression
over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

INVEST 95L maybe T.D
Looks like 93L starting to pull more NNW now!
Quoting 95. MahFL:



Floridians don't panic about Tropical Cyclones.


100% right, those that know what they are doing know to be prepared ahead of time. We do not panic nor do we get pissed off if a forecast does not pan out

Those who feel others are panicking or that a forecast being wrong is cause to bash the experts are the ones that cause more hysteria than anyone.
If 93L was to stay west it might have a chance but to the north shear is high

Might pull an Ike like movement 2008
Quoting 97. tornadodude:




There is something else there, about halfway between the Yucatan & Brownsville, unless just the local swirls of T-storms.
Quoting 110. MahFL:


So English is not your first language then ?
Michael- behave or I'll blow you out of the water.


watch the Caribbean right now!! right now heavy rain moving north and west
Quoting 100. bostonmatt:

Well hello everyone. I've been reading this blog for about 6 months. Extremely fun and informative(sometimes). I am also fascinated by tropical weather and somewhat knowledgable. My job also has to do with it,working storm response for all major power companies north and in the south. Been awhile since anything happened south of Mason Dixon line. Just thought I would chime in with 2 cents. Maybe a nickle. How bout our 2015 winter? Crazy!!!!!!!!!

Hey there, it is fascinating (sometimes). Welcome. I live in SW Fl so I can't comment on winter : )
Quoting 116. hurricanes2018:
watch the Caribbean right now!! right now heavy rain moving north and west

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A RATHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W N OF 11N EXTENDING N
TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN THE 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. AS THE
WAVE AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SURFACE WINDS SHIFTED FROM NE-E TO SE IN DIRECTION
THERE. THE LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM E AND
120 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 13N. MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

missing an x now
Quoting 118. bostonmatt:



Actually if u can believe it, it is
My second language is patriot football

Patriots?! Let me take my plus back. lol..Jokin.
123. FOREX
Quoting 75. AtHomeInTX:



About the same here, TX/LA, from Lake Charles NWS.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GENERAL AREA OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL OR EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO SHEAR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...TO KEEP ANY DISTURBANCE...WEAK AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT THIS SYSTEM COULD DRAW EVEN MORE DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

So it's not going North and it's not going West.lol
Quoting 102. stormpetrol:



Strong winds, but what a mess , any center is practically on the coast and half on land
Nice to see Rapidscat doing its thing replacing Quikscat. Very detailed wind profile.

N side of of 93L in shear..spot of 20 below. In front (west) seems ok.
This image had changed since i posted last one. Oddly. - I replaced it with large image.
Overall very content with the future forecast, hopefully one of these waves that should stay in the open Atlantic develop into something to track.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY ALL
WEEK. THE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UP CAUSING THE NIGHTS TO
NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST FEW. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


September 15, 1961


NWS on the anniversary of Hurricane Fran [Link]

Quoting 100. bostonmatt:

Well hello everyone. I've been reading this blog for about 6 months. Extremely fun and informative(sometimes). I am also fascinated by tropical weather and somewhat knowledgable. My job also has to do with it,working storm response for all major power companies north and in the south. Been awhile since anything happened south of Mason Dixon line. Just thought I would chime in with 2 cents. Maybe a nickle. How bout our 2015 winter? Crazy!!!!!!!!!


You mean nothing significant south of the Mason-Dixon line, right?
Quoting 97. tornadodude:




MLC?
Quoting 121. Starhopper:


missing an x now
maybe adding a new yellow x soon

Meanwhile in Africa....

Blob coming off the coast..
Quoting 127. win1gamegiantsplease:

Overall very content with the future forecast, hopefully one of these waves that should stay in the open Atlantic develop into something to track.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY ALL
WEEK. THE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UP CAUSING THE NIGHTS TO
NOT BE AS COOL AS THE LAST FEW. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


September 15, 1961
img


src="http://i.ytimg.com/vi/ICYfUNwecNA/hqdefault. jpg" style="max-width: 501px;">

NWS on the anniversary of Hurricane Fran [Link]



You mean nothing significant south of the Mason-Dixon line, right?

Apologies, u r correct. Cuz there r many weather happenings(storms)every day that affect us in every locale
Quoting 111. hydrus:




We're toast here in FL. This pattern setting in is producing more rain than the record setting rains in August. This looks to be serious. Flooding was scattered earlier with reports of 4" in many areas. 2.09" at my house and 3.14 in Altamonte Springs. Also reports of 4.20" in Titusville over on the coast.
Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:



We're toast here in FL. This pattern setting in is producing more rain than the record setting rains in August. This looks to be serious. Flooding was scattered earlier with reports of 4" in many areas. 2.09" at my house and 3.14 in Altamonte Springs. Also reports of 4.20" in Titusville over on the coast.


nothing in Pinellas county, I am sure that will change over the next few days
136. beell
Quoting 125. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Nice to see Rapidscat doing its thing replacing Quikscat. Very detailed wind profile.


Check the red lettering across the top of the graphic and the explaination of the "black" windbarbs at the bottom.

Evening all ...
Quoting 130. Starhopper:


Meanwhile in Africa....
This may seem a bit random, but...

Anybody has any insight / info on teleconnections between El Nino warmth in the EPac and increased warmth in the Indian Ocean? I'm interested in comments and / or data/studies.

I'm asking because I'm wondering if the vigorous AEWs we've been seeing across The Continent all summer have any connection to the warmer than usual SSTs in the Indian Ocean that have been prevalent in 2015...
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:

Evening all ...
This may seem a bit random, but...

Anybody has any insight / info on teleconnections between El Nino warmth in the EPac and increased warmth in the Indian Ocean? I'm interested in comments and / or data/studies.

I'm asking because I'm wondering if the vigorous AEWs we've been seeing across The Continent all summer have any connection to the warmer than usual SSTs in the Indian Ocean that have been prevalent in 2015...

I would ask ST Scott. He seems up on that. I found this info easily however:Link
Deep S, SW flow with PWATS over 2", lol. Get your inflatables out fellow floridians
Quoting 136. beell:



Check the red lettering across the top of the graphic and the explaination of the "black" windbarbs at the bottom.




I can scarcely believe with our luck any LLC was caught in the pass, let alone four. Whachoo think 94L is gonna do, Beel?



Dry air might be increasing w of 93L
142. beell
One buoy about 65-70 mi southeast of 94L's eastern swirl. Can't make too many assumptions based on one observation. Condition/accuracy of the equipment as well-but here it is anyway!

42055

Northeast winds at 14 knots/G 16 @ 6:50 PM CDT.




Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:



We're toast here in FL. This pattern setting in is producing more rain than the record setting rains in August. This looks to be serious. Flooding was scattered earlier with reports of 4" in many areas. 2.09" at my house and 3.14 in Altamonte Springs. Also reports of 4.20" in Titusville over on the coast.


Not toast here in Melbourne in my specific area. Rains are very localized here. Welcome overcast and drizzle today. Not enough to get wet under the trees. We didn't get the last batch of rain when others got their lions share. The St. Johns River is still quite a bit below average at the Lake Washington gage.
145. beell
Quoting 140. redwagon:



I can scarcely believe with our luck any LLC was caught in the pass, let alone four. Whachoo think 94L is gonna do, Beel?


Sling some upper level moisture towards the NE gulf in advance of the upper shortwave entering the central gulf via SE TX this evening. 94L may have to get back in line for 2016.

50 KM Global Analysis

Page full of sea surface temps: Link
Quoting 139. ProgressivePulse:
Deep S, SW flow with PWATS over 2", lol. Get your inflatables out fellow floridians

This pup loves to splash and play in puddles....bring it on to NE Fla, say I!
If you're bored dig into this site. Lots of cool stuff "packed" in :Link
BB later to check on happenings. Thanks for the info all.


GFS shows two Tropical Cyclones on October 1th. One in the NW Caribbean and the other in the central Atlantic.

Looks closer to 2 inches in isolated spots than 4 inches on radar estimates. It's Florida. It rains. Heh
Quoting 133. StormTrackerScott:



We're toast here in FL. This pattern setting in is producing more rain than the record setting rains in August. This looks to be serious. Flooding was scattered earlier with reports of 4" in many areas. 2.09" at my house and 3.14 in Altamonte Springs. Also reports of 4.20" in Titusville over on the coast. Quiet in West Broward, Ft. Lauderdale
Quoting 121. Starhopper:


missing an x now


Nice train of waves coming off of Africa but they don't do anything once they hit the water. Too much dry air and wind shear to contend with.
Quoting 152. HurriHistory:



Nice train of waves coming off of Africa but they don't do anything once they hit the water. Too much dry air and wind shear to contend with.
Why would you say that they can very well be "fish" storms
Is that toast burt? Grape, apple or strawberry jam on that toast?
As much as 6" of rain expected for many areas thru mid day Friday. Yikes!

George Waldenberger
4" rainfall at #UCF today.
Meanwhile 14 miles away, downtown #Orlando, less than a quarter inch. #WFTV
It came late, but I picked up 2.13" so far today, good soaking. Still coming down, not heavy but steady. No daylight or heat to evaporate most of it. Next couple of days could be interesting.
Quoting 157. Stoopid1:
It came late, but I picked up 2.13" so far today, good soaking. Still coming down, not heavy but steady. No daylight or heat to evaporate most of it. Next couple of days could be interesting.

We're a little under that by Ponte Vedre/JTB/UNF, about 1.90" since about 10am. We've got three different stations uploading in that area, so take your pick on the data.
Quoting 158. aquak9:


We're a little under that by Ponte Vedre/JTB/UNF, about 1.90" since about 10am. We've got three different stations uploading in that area, so take your pick on the data.


It was localized here in Jax. Many areas only picked up a small amount, some farther east got near 3", like around Craig Municipal.
Quoting 159. Stoopid1:



It was localized here in Jax. Many areas only picked up a small amount, some farther east got near 3", like around Craig Municipal.


NAM showing over 10" thru 54 hours by ST. Augustine up to Eastern JAX with 3" to 6" in the Orlando Metro additional on top of 4" in some areas today. I suspect we are in for a serious flood set up.

Quoting 156. StormTrackerScott:

George Waldenberger
4" rainfall at #UCF today.
Meanwhile 14 miles away, downtown #Orlando, less than a quarter inch. #WFTV



Seems like the east side of the state has definitely been making up for the lack of rain in the early half of the rainy season. I remember when the whole east coast of Florida had temporary drought back in mid July. Since August though rainfall has been more balanced with west and east coast areas getting plenty.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 MB LOW LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N43W ALONG A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N42W THROUGH THE LOW TO 08N42W...MOVING
NW N NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. SOME FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
AFTER WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1011 MB BROAD LOW SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED
NEAR 10N26W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N26W
THROUGH THE LOW TO 06N26W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND CONTINUES TO SHOWS
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N64W TO 11N65W...MOVING W AT
AROUND 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN 700 MB GFS
STREAMLINES WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. SSMI
TPW INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN
62W AND 71W.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 23N83W TO 13N84W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. A 700
MB TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN 78W AND
86W. SSMI TPW INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO
23N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
164. JLPR2
XD LOL

That storm in fantasy land is toast, that's a solid wall of windshear.
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



Seems like the east side of the state has definitely been making up for the lack of rain in the early half of the rainy season. I remember when the whole east coast of Florida had temporary drought back in mid July. Since August though rainfall has been more balanced with west and east coast areas getting plenty.


Funny how that happens. Showers were very fast moving today and came early - around 2:30.
Quoting 162. Stormchaser2007:




Well that helps explain all the spinning I see in that area. I swear if I kept looking at the visible loop I could have found more than the 4 spins I thought I could have seen. The spins they are everywhere. Forget models at this point is there any consensus among reliable forecasters as to possible scenarios of that mess that is 94L?
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



Seems like the east side of the state has definitely been making up for the lack of rain in the early half of the rainy season. I remember when the whole east coast of Florida had temporary drought back in mid July. Since August though rainfall has been more balanced with west and east coast areas getting plenty.


I'm at 34.21" for the year counting today. Looks like we'll play catch up as far as average annuals are concerned, I just don't like playing catch up all at once. Some minor street flooding here from what we got today, nothing serious but there are plenty of areas near where I live that won't handle the projected totals for the next few days too well.
0Z NAM also showing what could be a chance for tornadoes across FL Friday & Saturday.

Quoting 166. QueensWreath:



Well that helps explain all the spinning I see in that area. I swear if I kept looking at the visible loop I could have found more than the 4 spins I thought I could have seen. The spins they are everywhere. Forget models at this point is there any consensus among reliable forecasters as to possible scenarios of that mess that is 94L?


Seems that's how it's been this year; either very well defined, or a Legion storm that has no hope of stacking. Nothing in between.
Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:

0Z NAM also showing what could be a chance for tornadoes across FL Friday & Saturday.



The Low just basically sits and spins in Eastern Gulf of Mexico for days.
Quoting 170. sporteguy03:


The Low just basically sits and spins in Eastern Gulf of Mexico for days.


NAM is now showing a fairly strong system just west of Tampa come this weekend. If this does indeed occur heavy rains won't be all that we have to deal with as this model is clearly showing a decent potential for tornadoes across FL.
The blog is remarkably pleasant tonight.






Just looking at the Satellite presentation, it seems that South West of Key west there is a Low trying to form?,maybe ex-Grace or whatever don't remember the name of the last storm,the CMC Model,even thought not a great model,has been hinting about this low for days!.
Quoting 172. Grothar:

The blog is remarkably pleasant tonight.







maybe because they gave up on everything.
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



Seems like the east side of the state has definitely been making up for the lack of rain in the early half of the rainy season. I remember when the whole east coast of Florida had temporary drought back in mid July. Since August though rainfall has been more balanced with west and east coast areas getting plenty.


Still dry here, Jeds

Totals from just today.

NAM still continuing trending east..

18z


00z
Quoting 172. Grothar:

The blog is remarkably pleasant tonight.









This blog reminds me of an old Garth Brooks song.

And now im glad i didnt know
The way 15 would end
The way 15 would gooooo
Our lives are better left to chance
I could have missed the canes
But id have had to miss
Thuh Dance

95L

93L
Is this Dmin cuz our invests are looking great
There is your tropical wave axis in the Southeastern Gulf.





Quoting 180. all4hurricanes:

Is this Dmin cuz our invests are looking great


Mind you we're only 5 days past the peak of Hurricane season. El Nino "Sometimes" lets things go for a bit.
Good news on the Valley fire, albeit brief - cool and rainy tomorrow:
Kelseyville, CA forecast
DeSoto, FL
FLC027-161515-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ARCF1.2.ER.150818T0230Z.150908T0915Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

...Flood Warning continues for
The Peace River At Arcadia
* Until further notice.
* At 9 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.9 feet and steady.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will rise to near 12.7 feet by Saturday morning
then begin falling.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...Peace River Estates floods affecting
several dozen homes.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous
crest of 11.1 feet on Jul 30 2013.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Peace
Arcadia 11 11.9 Tue 09 PM 11.9 12.0 12.5 12.6 12.4


FROM: NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015: Link

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Some additional
development of this low is possible, and it could become a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become unfavorable in a day or
so. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at about 10
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
189. FOREX
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:



NAM is now showing a fairly strong system just west of Tampa come this weekend. If this does indeed occur heavy rains won't be all that we have to deal with as this model is clearly showing a decent potential for tornadoes across FL.
Panhandle should remain dry.
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:



NAM is now showing a fairly strong system just west of Tampa come this weekend. If this does indeed occur heavy rains won't be all that we have to deal with as this model is clearly showing a decent potential for tornadoes across FL.

Not happening Scott.
What is happening is the 28th time this year that the NAM has showed an "intense" low off Tampa. It's a glitch. Forecast the synoptic reality, not the glitchy model. That's what I was taught by the best.
Really squally east to west storms recently past through tonight here in ft Lauderdale...
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:

Evening all ...
This may seem a bit random, but...

Anybody has any insight / info on teleconnections between El Nino warmth in the EPac and increased warmth in the Indian Ocean? I'm interested in comments and / or data/studies.

I'm asking because I'm wondering if the vigorous AEWs we've been seeing across The Continent all summer have any connection to the warmer than usual SSTs in the Indian Ocean that have been prevalent in 2015...

Hey Baha, I don't know any atmospheric details, but news from (Eastern) Africa are full of warnings of the upcoming floods due to El Nino:

East Africa: Region Told to Prepare for Severe El Niño Rains
The East African, Sept 13, 2015, By Jeff Otieno and Apolinari Tairo
East Africans should brace for three months of El Niño rains, local and international meteorologists have warned.
The torrential rains are expected between September and December in most areas, but will extend to February next year in some parts of the greater Horn of Africa region.
"Scientific models show the region will experience El Niño rains, hence governments need to put in place mitigation measures to minimise the damage caused by the heavy rains," said Peter Ambenje, Kenya's Director of Meteorological Services.
Mr Ambenje was part of a team of meteorologists from East Africa who met recently in Tanzania to draw up the short rains season forecast for the greater Horn of Africa.
The meteorologists met under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (CPAC) -- an institution established to monitor and advise members on extreme climate events in the region. ...
According to the ICPAC forecast, almost the whole of the East African region is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall with the exception of southern Tanzania, which is normally dry during the short rains season. ...


More news here.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY-FRI...

CURRENT...CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH MOVEMENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST. THE STEERING FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONTO THE COAST AND FURTHER INLAND. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE
L/M70S WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE.
915 MHZ CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW E/SE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 8.0 KFT.

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE/ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH COUPLED WITH
DECENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO AID IN ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WILL GO WITH 70 PERCENT POPS AREAWIDE WITH
CHANCE WORDING THIS MORNING BECOMING LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS. GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
INTERIOR BUT POPS WILL BE LOWER INLAND FROM THE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LEADING TO POSSIBLE NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS/LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALSO RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAINFALL IN
PAST DAYS. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE OTHER CONCERNS. CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NW/NNW AT 10-15 MPH.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E/NE...BUT MAY BE MORE ESE ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD DAYTIME HIGHS TO THE M/U80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE L/M70S AREAWIDE.

THU...A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THU AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ELONGATES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES THE FL WEST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LVL
EASTERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL VEER TO SE AT 850 MBS AND
SOUTHERLY FROM H7-H5 AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL SPELL HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH ATLC CONVERGENT SHOWER BANDS
MOVING ONSHORE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 2.0-2.3 INCHES WITH A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 3-4 INCHES IF ANY TRAINING BANDS
DEVELOP. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD
ACROSS E CENTRAL WILL CONTINUE HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN WITH PWATS
FROM 2.0-2.1 INCHES ACROSS SRN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.

SAT-SUN...00Z GFS INDICATES THE S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT SLOW NE OFF THE
SE ATLC TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AS SOME DRYING
OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FCST 40-50 PCT RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY LOWERING TO 30-40 PCT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LVL N-NE
FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

MON-WED...S/W TROUGH AND SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE WELL EAST INTO THE ATLC
MONDAY WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW AND DRYING ALOFT IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW SCATTERED RANGE FOR MONDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO MID WEEK. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
ACROSS N FL BUT DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 30 PCT TUE
AND 30-40 PCT WED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

196. vis0
AniGif (985x381 @2.70MB)
CREDIT::NOAA
AOI:: ATL Tropical Basin
D&T::201509-16;0000utc_0600utc

...get it ... Jack and the Beanstalk
click leads2phify display, there click4org (xtra step so you see ADs that support phify...next?? a forum site to match named  "phufum"...get it... Jack and the Beanstalk
Utah flash flood: death toll rises as more victims found in Zion national park
Associated Press/The Guardian, Wednesday 16 September 2015 00.39 BST
Authorities have confirmed at least 15 people died in flash flooding that swept away two vehicles in a town on the Utah-Arizona border and surged through a nearby national park.
The toll increased on Tuesday night with the discovery that three people had been killed in Utah’s Zion national park when they were caught up in floodwaters rushing through its canyons. Another four were missing. Their vehicle was found at a trailhead on Monday evening in the Keyhole Canyon area and a search was undertaken on Tuesday morning. ...






Ex-Henri provides interesting weather for western Europe today. And yes, it already rained a bit in my town Mainz :-) where we hardly got rains worth to speak of during the last months.




Saved current IR loop. Source for updates.



Estofex Storm Forecast, Valid: Wed 16 Sep 2015 06:00 to Thu 17 Sep 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Wed 16 Sep 2015 00:23, Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for parts of France, Belgium, Luxemburg, southeastern UK, Netherlands and western Germany mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 extends over Denmark mainly for tornadoes and severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS
A low with a core pressure approaching 980 hPa moves from the Bay of Biscay rapidly through the English Channel region. Very tight mid level height gradients are in place across much of western Europe, with a 40 m/s 700 hPa wind maximum over central France. The left exit region of a 65 m/s 300 hPa jet passes over northwestern France, Belgium, southeastern UK and the Netherlands. This region of strong vertical ascent is more visible as the leading edge of a marked dynamic tropopause/PV feature.
GFS and other models develop 500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE or 200-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, mainly advected from the Atlantic over France and onwards to the Netherlands. Meanwhile, 1-3 km average GFS model wind speed reaches 25 m/s over a wide area and low and deep level shear support organized thunderstorms. ...

More (discussion) see link above.

Ex Henri Bringing A Stormy Soaking
The remains of ex Tropical Storm Henri are on the scene today, it's central, southern and eastern parts of England along with the southeast of Wales which'll be seeing the worst, elsewhere a lot quieter and drier. ...

Summer finally comes to an end as Spain is battered by fierce storms
The Local (Spain) Published: 16 Sep 2015 11:03 GMT 02:00
Hmm

I've been watching the GFS runs for a few good runs and I see GFS shows a strong TS or Hurricane coming out the NW Caribbean and a moderate-strong TS between Africa and the lesser Antilles

Looking at the runs its been showing this for a few runs now and it's moving up the timeline

We do need to keep an eye on this during the next week and half to two weeks to see if this comes to fruition

We need to start looking at these areas NW Caribbean/GOM area for development as this time of year late Sept/Oct/Nov as this is where most at that time of year usually develop




GFS starts W Caribbean/GOM storm at 240-252hrs (26 sept) in the SW Caribbean
System develops and moves N and continues to develop through the NW Caribbean and continues into the GOM through to the end of the run at Oct 2
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Some additional
development of this low is possible, and it could become a tropical
depression before upper-level winds become unfavorable in a day or
so. This low is expected to move generally northwestward at about 10
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
East Haven, Connecticut 60 °F Clear FALL weather here this morning on 4:53 AM EDT on September 16, 2015
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150916 0545 14.1 42.8 T1.0/1.0 93L 93L
20150915 2345 12.1 42.7 T1.0/1.0 93L 93L
20150915 1145 12.2 41.9 Too Weak 93L 93L
20150915 0545 12.1 41.0 T1.0/1.0 93L 93L



invest 93L looking much better this morning!!
Addition to post #198: our German national weather service DWD just posted this track of (former) tropical storm Henri and warned of gales with hurricane force, severe weather with torrential rains and maybe tornadoes in the west this evening (including my region near Frankfurt).




Source.


Current airmass. Source for updates.


Current isobares (updating).

Relentless soft rains at my place Mainz, very welcome - thank you so far, Henri!
Have a nice morning everyone. I'm out for a while.


watch out for invest 93L maybe a T.D SOON
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150915 2345 9.9 26.4 Too Weak 95L 95L
20150915 1745 9.9 25.6 T1.0/1.0 95L 95L
93L in 5 days.............................................. ............................
perhaps 93L is the one to watch............................................. .....
Quoting 211. LargoFl:

93L in 5 days.............................................. ............................
lol! That's a large and oddly organized storm if I ever saw one.
Good morning everyone, I have posted my 89th blog update of the season on the Atlantic tropics. I vote that 95L still has the biggest potential over all systems in the Atlantic. 93L will soon be recurving northward into a belt of westerly shear.
Quoting 207. hurricanes2018:



watch out for invest 93L maybe a T.D SOON

Yes, in fact I think 93L could be a tropical storm by tonight. But soon after that, it will be a difficult road for 93L due to wind shear. But behind 93L....I think 95L could bomb out into a strong hurricane as 95L will be under a very massive and favorable anticyclone & there doesn't appear to be much dry air in the way of 95L.
93/wants.it....2015=active.yr
What happened to breakfast on the side board?
Quoting 216. NCHurricane2009:

Good morning everyone, I have posted my 89th blog update of the season on the Atlantic tropics. I vote that 95L still has the biggest potential over all systems in the Atlantic. 93L will soon be recurving northward into a belt of westerly shear.
95l will be nothing to anyone
cmc=california dreaming
93=big news for us numbers crunchers
225. MahFL
NWS JAX says we might get 4 inches of rain today.
A good soaking rain for Soo Cal yesterday and yet another record. And what is odd is they are all happening in the summer months. It's the El Nino for sure. Rainfall records for May, July and now in September........Any rain whatsoever in summer in Soo Cal is a bonus, as it is usually bone dry with the exception of some thunderstorms in monsoon surges in the mountains and deserts mostly. There was 1-2 inches to be had a most locations from the coast to the deserts........ Also believe that Los Angeles received almost 3". I hope this portends for a wet winter in California. Just wished the folks up north can get some to combat those horrible fires.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2015

INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT SAN DIEGO RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY 15 SEPTEMBER:

DAILY RECORD: SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD RECORDED 1.21 INCHES OF
RAINFALL... BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 0.12 INCHES
SET IN 1906. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE DATE IS 0.00.

NEAR RECORD FOR ANY SEPTEMBER DAY: THE VALUE OF 1.21 INCHES BARELY
MISSES BEING THE GREATEST DAILY RAINFALL FOR ANY DAY IN SEPTEMBER.
THE WETTEST SEPTEMBER DAY ON RECORD IN SAN DIEGO WAS 30 SEPTEMBER
1921 ON WHICH 1.23 INCHES FELL.

MONTHLY RAINFALL: THE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN SAN DIEGO FOR SEPTEMBER
2015 IS NOW 1.21 INCHES...MAKING THIS SEPTEMBER ALREADY THE FOURTH
WETTEST ON RECORD. THE SUPERLATIVE SEPTEMBER OF 1939...IN WHICH
THREE TROPICAL STORMS IMPACTED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RANKS AS THE
WETTEST SEPTEMBER IN SAN DIEGO RECORDED HISTORY WHEN 3.14 INCHES
FELL. WITH HALF THE MONTH LEFT TO GO...THIS SEPTEMBER COULD MOVE UP
IN THE RANKINGS.

RAINFALL RECORDS IN SAN DIEGO DATE BACK TO 1850.
Good Morning Class! Hope all have a great day! May all your weather wishes come true!
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 161143 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized during the past few hours in association with a low pressure system located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. If these trends continue, a tropical depression could form later this morning before upper-level winds become less conducive for development by tomorrow. This system is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic at about 10 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent $$ Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 225. MahFL:

NWS JAX says we might get 4 inches of rain today.


Let it rain everywhere that needs it!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become better organized
during the past few hours in association with a low pressure system
located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. If these trends continue, a tropical depression could
form later this morning before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development by tomorrow. This system is expected to
move north-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic
at about 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

invest 93L

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles southwest of
the southernmost Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression over the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
WRF-ARW has it at 998mb moving into SW FL in 48hrs
Quoting 214. LargoFl:

perhaps 93L is the one to watch............................................. .....
Perhaps, but that's a single run of the GFS aircraft model, Maybe seeing what the next run of the actual GFS ensemble would be better once 93L becomes a TD.
Quoting 235. SFLWeatherman:

WRF-ARW has it at 998mb moving into SW FL in 48hrs

You see a 998 mb low on that map?


a tropical depression could form later this morning

Quoting 237. sar2401:

You see a 998 mb low on that map?
Quoting 232. LargoFl:


There is no 94L. It stopped being an invest yesterday.
Quoting 230. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Let it rain everywhere that needs it!


Are we included in that, Joe??

Good morning

Hot, humid and cloudy here on the island this morning. I see there are a few puddles around but nothing of any significance.

The talk of the town yesterday was the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Marilyn which devastated this island.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

*dodges spit ball*
Quoting 232. LargoFl:




It's that time of year.......they are lined up.......let's see what they do.
Quoting 239. SFLWeatherman:



Now I see it, :-)
We are getting walloped in St. Lucie County.
It has been pouring since 7:45 this morning non-stop. Definitely over 2 inches of rain has fallen at this rate.
Quoting 225. MahFL:

NWS JAX says we might get 4 inches of rain today.


I believe it as many areas saw that yesterday on the northside of Orlando. I officially recorded 2.09" @ my house but 3.14" @ my office.
Quoting 226. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A good soaking rain for Soo Cal yesterday and yet another record. And what is odd is they are all happening in the summer months. It's the El Nino for sure. Rainfall records for May, July and now in September........Any rain whatsoever in summer in Soo Cal is a bonus, as it is usually bone dry with the exception of some thunderstorms in monsoon surges in the mountains and deserts mostly. There was 1-2 inches to be had a most locations from the coast to the deserts........ Also believe that Los Angeles received almost 3". I hope this portends for a wet winter in California. Just wished the folks up north can get some to combat those horrible fires.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2015

INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT SAN DIEGO RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY 15 SEPTEMBER:

DAILY RECORD: SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD RECORDED 1.21 INCHES OF
RAINFALL... BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 0.12 INCHES
SET IN 1906. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE DATE IS 0.00.

NEAR RECORD FOR ANY SEPTEMBER DAY: THE VALUE OF 1.21 INCHES BARELY
MISSES BEING THE GREATEST DAILY RAINFALL FOR ANY DAY IN SEPTEMBER.
THE WETTEST SEPTEMBER DAY ON RECORD IN SAN DIEGO WAS 30 SEPTEMBER
1921 ON WHICH 1.23 INCHES FELL.

MONTHLY RAINFALL: THE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN SAN DIEGO FOR SEPTEMBER
2015 IS NOW 1.21 INCHES...MAKING THIS SEPTEMBER ALREADY THE FOURTH
WETTEST ON RECORD. THE SUPERLATIVE SEPTEMBER OF 1939...IN WHICH
THREE TROPICAL STORMS IMPACTED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RANKS AS THE
WETTEST SEPTEMBER IN SAN DIEGO RECORDED HISTORY WHEN 3.14 INCHES
FELL. WITH HALF THE MONTH LEFT TO GO...THIS SEPTEMBER COULD MOVE UP
IN THE RANKINGS.

RAINFALL RECORDS IN SAN DIEGO DATE BACK TO 1850.


I suspect that the conditions being seen in SO Cal and in FL is a direct result of El-Nino. Hard to say for sure but I really do suspect with research being done later on that we can correlate the extreme rains in FL & in SO Cal to this Super El-Nino taking shape.
Quoting 240. HurricaneHunterJoe:



My tummy be rumbling..........any to go cartons?


Yeah... Stomach growling here too. Heating up leftover homemade Italian sausage & jalapeño pizza.

Another soaker here today...

Quoting 242. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Are we included in that, Joe??

Good morning

Hot, humid and cloudy here on the island this morning. I see there are a few puddles around but nothing of any significance.

The talk of the town yesterday was the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Marilyn which devastated this island.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

*dodges spit ball*


Of course you are Lindy! We getting spoiled in the San Diego CA area .......another record rainfall yesterday of 1.21". Rainfall records in May,July, and now September........when it usually does not rain at all. Hope it portends a wet winter for California, especially up north where it is badly needed. I think we have had more rain in the May-Sept time frame than from Oct-April ( our usual rainy season, such as it is) And be forewarned I am Marksman/SharpShooter on the spitball weapon! Have a great day!
Quoting 213. tampabaymatt:


Just to show how misleading satellite photos can be, you'd think there was some kind of low with a bunch of rain over Alabama and Georgia. In reality it's just a bunch of low clouds.
NAM & WRF models keep developing a system off Fort Myers. May need to watch this area off SW FL. Recent runs of HRRR model seem to be indication something board trying to develop today in that region of the SE Gulf.

Heavy rains streaming inland across the Treasure Coast.

253. MahFL
Quoting 230. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Let it rain everywhere that needs it!


JAX does not need it actually.
Quoting 213. tampabaymatt:




Nice to see and hope that trof digs further south to get some possible moisture and lower temps to help the firefighters combat those horrible fires in Nor Cal.
255. MahFL
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:

NAM & WRF models keep developing a system off Fort Myers. May need to watch this area off SW FL. Recent runs of HRRR model seem to be indication something board trying to develop today in that region of the SE Gulf.




It's always 3 days in the future though....
I'm pretty positive that 93L will be declared at 11am et.
Quoting 200. wunderkidcayman:

GFS starts W Caribbean/GOM storm at 240-252hrs (26 sept) in the SW Caribbean
System develops and moves N and continues to develop through the NW Caribbean and continues into the GOM through to the end of the run at Oct 2
You mean this 252 hour frame of the GFS? Try as I might, I find no evidence of any kind of storm.

Quoting 253. MahFL:



JAX does not need it actually.


Fedex it overnight to Nor Cal, they can use a nice 4" dousing!
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:

NAM & WRF models keep developing a system off Fort Myers. May need to watch this area off SW FL. Recent runs of HRRR model seem to be indication something board trying to develop today in that region of the SE Gulf.




Hope that storm off Baja California heads north our way like Linda did........more deluges are needed!
Hello All....................A little bit of rain is good this time of the year (for the Florida folks). At least it looks like the folks in the SW are getting a break (rain wise) this morning: They need more rain further north to help with the fires however.

The West Coast still needs tons of rain to put a dent in the deficits and with the fires; hopes a good Pineapple express type pattern sets up for them this Fall and Winter:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Per the GFS Model, another surge of some leftover remains of a tropical system into Soo Cal next Tuesday for more wet stuff.......Be correct for 1 week out GFS....please?

Quoting 261. weathermanwannabe:

The West Coast still needs tons of rain to put a dent in the deficits and with the fires; hopes a good Pineapple express type pattern sets up for them this Fall and Winter:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor


You and I both and the other 40 million people who live here.
Quoting 199. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm

I've been watching the GFS runs for a few good runs and I see GFS shows a strong TS or Hurricane coming out the NW Caribbean and a moderate-strong TS between Africa and the lesser Antilles

Looking at the runs its been showing this for a few runs now and it's moving up the timeline

We do need to keep an eye on this during the next week and half to two weeks to see if this comes to fruition

We need to start looking at these areas NW Caribbean/GOM area for development as this time of year late Sept/Oct/Nov as this is where most at that time of year usually develop





Amazing how much the GFS changes from one run to the next this far out , isn't it?

Quoting 260. weathermanwannabe:

Hello All....................A little bit of rain is good this time of the year (for the Florida folks). At least it looks like the folks in the SW are getting a break (rain wise) this morning: They need more rain further north to help with the fires however.




For sure! Hoping that trof digs further south and comes ashore with moisture and cooler temps.
TXNT29 KNES 161205
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 16/1145Z

C. 14.5N

D. 43.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 1.5. PT IS ALSO 1.5
WHILE MET IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
CMC has the gulf Low crossing florida and taking it Up the east coast...................................
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150916 1145 14.5 43.2 T1.5/1.5 93L 93L
20150916 0545 14.1 42.8 T1.0/1.0 93L 93L
20150915 2345 13.1 42.7 T1.0/1.0 93L 93L


NUMBERS GOING UP
several models including the GFS etc has the gulf Low crossing florida into the atlantic,I guess all along the atlantic coastline may want to stay a lil extra alert next week and see what happens
GFS takes the gulf Low up the east coast but then later moves out to sea..but changes can happen huh......
Quoting 192. CosmicEvents:


Not happening Scott.
What is happening is the 28th time this year that the NAM has showed an "intense" low off Tampa. It's a glitch. Forecast the synoptic reality, not the glitchy model. That's what I was taught by the best.
To be fair, the HWRF has also been good at these "intense" low off Tampa lately as well. Your point is , however, well taken. As one of my old time met professors said "Those that can forecast read charts. Those that can't look at models".
Euro also takes the gulf LOW over florida,up the east coast.......................................
hope everyone enjoys above average temps, cause that's what you're gonna get next 6-10 days.
Quoting 245. rmbjoe1954:

We are getting walloped in St. Lucie County.
It has been pouring since 7:45 this morning non-stop. Definitely over 2 inches of rain has fallen at this rate.



Raining like heck to your southeast in Jensen too. Was scheduled to replace some water monitor equipment this am on the St. Lucie with ORCA.. told the engineer.. I don't mind wet.. I have good foul weather gear.. but on the water while it is lightening.. not so good... We should get together some time Joe.. I would very much like to meet you.
Navy model also takes the gulf Low over florida then up the east coast.......................
NASA: Arctic sea ice hit its fourth lowest level on record



Link
Quoting 272. sar2401:

To be fair, the HWRF has also been good at these "intense" low off Tampa lately as well. Your point is , however, well taken. As one of my old time met professors said "Those that can forecast read charts. Those that can't look at models".


Now that's funny.
Rain looks like it is moving into Pinellas county
Latest NOAA Chart shows the beginning of increase ice in Artic. Might not be one of the lowest if trend continues.
here is the chart. Notice up tick. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Marcie Roth, featured speaker at the Houston Getting It Right Workshop, August 28, 2015

Portlight Getting it right Conferences
By: Portlight , 8:03 AM CDT on September 16, 2015



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To be fair, the HWRF has also been good at these "intense" low off Tampa lately as well. Your point is , however, well taken. As one of my old time met professors said "Those that can forecast read charts. Those that can't look at models".

beginner charts are available here for those who care to learn more than a model web address NOAA "Jetstream" online weather courses


Quoting 283. NSB207:

Latest NOAA Chart shows the beginning of increase ice in Artic. Might not be one of the lowest if trend continues.


Too late for that -- it already is one of the lowest.
288. MahFL
Hmmm, circulation just west of Cuba ?

Quoting 282. Hurricanes101:

Rain looks like it is moving into Pinellas county


Am wondering if the rain event will end up meeting it's potential on the west side of the state, all the high clouds and light rain will limit coverage if not prevent it entirely today if the sun doesn't come out. Gulf convection is limiting heating over land areas so far, seems that's been the case the last couple events too, which isn't a bad thing though.
Was pretty rainy this early morning, but called down quite a bit since then. Probably some storms will roll in a few hours. A friend living in Boca had to go into work and park in a different lot than he normally does. It was flooded. Granted that does happen many times...
Quoting 80. Climate1001:

Bad news for the West Coast.



From the article:

"The 2015 record low snowpack coincides with record high California January-March temperatures and highlights the modulating role of temperature extremes in Californian drought severity. Snowpack lows, among other drought metrics, are driven by the co-occurrence of precipitation deficits and high temperature extremes,
and we find that the exacerbating effect of warm winter temperatures is stronger at low than at high Sierra Nevada elevations. Anthropogenic warming is projected to further increase the probability of severe
drought events, advance the timing of spring snowmelt and increase rain-to-snow ratios. The ongoing and projected role of temperature in the amount and duration of California's primary natural water storage
system thus foreshadows major future impacts on the state's water supplies."

Quoting 283. NSB207:

Latest NOAA Chart shows the beginning of increase ice in Artic. Might not be one of the lowest if trend continues.
Arctic sea ice extent and area have already reached their annual minimums, where they were recorded as near the lowest on record. The normal mid-September refreeze has begun; that uptick you see is part of that. (FWIW, October is the month of greatest refreeze; all the 'easy' ice freezes over in a hurry once the sun is gone for the winter.)
Posting individual model frames is NEVER forecasting, it is posting individual model frames.

Period.

Looks like there could be a very strong low in the eastern Gulf soon. How come nobody picked up on this? I am shocked!!!


Latest NOAA Chart shows the beginning of increase ice in Artic. Might not be one of the lowest if trend continues.


it's normal for the ice to startm increasing this time of year....however...the same page you posted for the graph...has this compelling story....


Arctic sea ice reaches fourth lowest minimum
September 15, 2015
On September 11, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2015. The minimum ice extent was the fourth lowest in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. Sea ice extent will now begin its seasonal increase through autumn and winter. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent is average, a substantial contrast with recent years when Antarctic winter extents reached record high levels.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.
Quoting 294. Grothar:

Looks like there could be a very strong low in the eastern Gulf soon. How come nobody picked up on this? I am shocked!!!





There's already a broad low spinning in the eastern GOM. I was watching a local meteorologist showing the general circulation already in place over the eastern GOM.
Not sure how it will deal with the shear?
Or not, rain dying out as its coming ashore
298. SLU
16/1145 UTC 14.5N 43.2W T1.5/1.5 93L
Quoting 275. indianrivguy:



Raining like heck to your southeast in Jensen too. Was scheduled to replace some water monitor equipment this am on the St. Lucie with ORCA.. told the engineer.. I don't mind wet.. I have good foul weather gear.. but on the water while it is lightening.. not so good... We should get together some time Joe.. I would very much like to meet you.


That would be good Marty.
Quoting 289. Jedkins01:



Am wondering if the rain event will end up meeting it's potential on the west side of the state, all the high clouds and light rain will limit coverage if not prevent it entirely today if the sun doesn't come out. Gulf convection is limiting heating over land areas so far, seems that's been the case the last couple events too, which isn't a bad thing though.


It depends on how all of this develops. We could end up getting stuck in a line of moisture and get tons of rain too.
Quoting 294. Grothar:

Looks like there could be a very strong low in the eastern Gulf soon. How come nobody picked up on this? I am shocked!!!





Remember that 384 chart I showed - 384 hours ago? There you go , I called it:)
93L really came back...

303. joHS
quack...grace is mean

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

FLC085-111-161515-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0073.150916T1355Z-150916T1515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ST. LUCIE FL-MARTIN FL-
955 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 951 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS. THIS WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. BETWEEN ONE AND THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN JUST OFFSHORE MARTIN COUNTY AND
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...STUART AND JUPITER
ISLAND.

RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

warning!!!

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 16/1145Z

C. 14.5N

D. 43.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 1.5. PT IS ALSO 1.5
WHILE MET IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
Quoting 295. ricderr:

Latest NOAA Chart shows the beginning of increase ice in Artic. Might not be one of the lowest if trend continues.


it's normal for the ice to startm increasing this time of year....however...the same page you posted for the graph...has this compelling story....


Arctic sea ice reaches fourth lowest minimum
September 15, 2015
On September 11, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2015. The minimum ice extent was the fourth lowest in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. Sea ice extent will now begin its seasonal increase through autumn and winter. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent is average, a substantial contrast with recent years when Antarctic winter extents reached record high levels.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.
Well it won't be long before it's the 5th lowest and so on.
Quoting 301. Bucsboltsfan:



Remember that 384 chart I showed - 384 hours ago? There you go , I called it:)

I mention this the other day and/or hinted at it. And a certain blogger has been dogging me and criticizing everything I write to the point I got banned for a day in what I said/wrote back. So now I am going to measure everything I say/write


starting to look like a T.D
All I will say is I agree with BucsBoltFan and Grothar about Eastern Gulf Low
Can anyone get an ascat image of 93L?
Quoting 302. FunnelVortex:

93L really came back...




Looks like a cyclone to me. Question is will the NHC go with TD or give it a name?
93L should be at 16N 55W instead :/ Would be much more interesting.
Quoting 310. Bucsboltsfan:



Looks like a cyclone to me. Question is will the NHC go with TD or give it a name?


With the ASCAT site down I can not know...
Grothar, the messenger of the weather gods!
314. 7544
yep something might be a low try to form close to home on the west coast and guess what it moves east back over fl more rain rain rain


Fish storms mean no more weather for us :(( I hate fish storms... look between the Lesser Antilles and 93L and tell me what you see? NOTHING.
Drum roll.............................................. .....

Loop of the short range forecasts
TD9

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16
Location: 15.0°N 43.1°W
Moving: NNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
318. SLU
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR FROM LAND IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
Ex-Henri (more see my morning-posts): Decent thunderstorms with strong lightning developed in the last hours in France and are coming my way ;-)

Lightning live.


Edit: loop saved a bit later.

Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



There's already a broad low spinning in the eastern GOM. I was watching a local meteorologist showing the general circulation already in place over the eastern GOM.
Not sure how it will deal with the shear?
it's not exactly a low but rather a broad trough of low pressure. A weak low may form in the next 24 hours though. All the models have this low remaining in mid-Gulf until at least Friday and never coming any closer to land. Then the GFS has the low just off south central Florida early Saturday morning.



A mere six hours later, it shows the low way out in the Atlantic off the GA/SC line. I'm not sure I think this is a reasonable solution but we'll see.

321. SLU
09L

Quoting 316. weathermanwannabe:

Drum roll.............................................. .....

Loop of the short range forecasts
Although that graphic only shows areas that have either a chance of rain or likely rain, not how heavy it might be, just so we don't start scaring anyone. :-0
Quoting 289. Jedkins01:



Am wondering if the rain event will end up meeting it's potential on the west side of the state, all the high clouds and light rain will limit coverage if not prevent it entirely today if the sun doesn't come out. Gulf convection is limiting heating over land areas so far, seems that's been the case the last couple events too, which isn't a bad thing though.
Looks like most of the rain will stay offshore today but give you enough clouds to limit your precipitation. There are some high and mid level clouds all the way up here from that glob (glob = gigantic blob) so I don't think it looks good for much rain there.

Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



There's already a broad low spinning in the eastern GOM. I was watching a local meteorologist showing the general circulation already in place over the eastern GOM.
Not sure how it will deal with the shear?
It won't. There is only and open wave, and a developing ULL swinging across the gulf states. Not so sure about your faith in a TV met. That may be worse than using long range models as your bible. Like any free forum, the TV guys always want to be the first one to be right, but like many others, base their forecasts on what they wish, instead of the science.

TD9 not expected to become Ida...

Dang, because it is the best depression I've seen all year.
Quoting 326. FunnelVortex:

TD9 not expected to become Ida...

Dang, because it is the best depression I've seen all year.
I expect this to become Ida. It will be a surprise.
The low in the Gulf explains the terrible headache I woke up with this morning. It's nearing migraine strength, which is always my sign to keep paying attention to the weather. I'm like a human barometer. 
Quoting 327. HurricaneAndre:

I expect this to become Ida. It will be a surprise.


I think it may have a trick up its sleeve also. After all, it sprung back after the NHC dropped its chances.

Quoting 331. LargoFl:




That doesn't look to show a tropical storm in the GOM.
Quoting 323. sar2401:

Looks like most of the rain will stay offshore today but give you enough clouds to limit your precipitation. There are some high and mid level clouds all the way up here from that glob (glob = gigantic blob) so I don't think it looks good for much rain there.


The WPC is not showing much rain for the Tampa Bay area today. What's striking to me is that the Ruskin NWS has not issued a single flood watch, and have stated they don't plan to. The second it looked like ex-Erika was going to impact the Tampa Bay area, flood watches were flying like crazy given the saturated grounds here. Of course, we could get localized heavy rain and flooding, but it seems like the Ruskin NWS doesn't see this as a major, widespread, heavy rain event for our area.
Quoting 328. flbeachgirl:

The low in the Gulf explains the terrible headache I woke up with this morning. It's nearing migraine strength, which is always my sign to keep paying attention to the weather. I'm like a human barometer. 


Same thing happens to me. I get very bad sinus headaches whenever there is a sharp increase in humidity.
Yeah, the NWS shows the developing low on the 3 day chart. As mentioned earlier, shear should keep the low in check. Just more rain for Florida.

HUGE storm just went right thru Fort Lauderdale. My school is out of power!!! WOW
Some really torrential rain going on at my parents house. My father texted me telling me street flooded in 10 minutes of rain, from looking at the radar, not surprised. I see it from my office, I work well inland so we'll see if it gets to me.
Top winds from ex-tropical storm Henri in France so far (first: in the plains below 800m = 2624ft with a maximum of 135 km/h = 84 mph, then on the mountains)

Source Twitter:
Guillaume Séchet ‏@Meteovilles 22 Min.Vor 22 Minuten
Ex #tempête #Henri - Départements avec rafales à 100 km/h et plus en plaine et en montagne jusqu'à 17 h
El Nino winters and springs bring those low trajectory lows that often originate around the Gulf and swing up the Eastern Seaboard which then can turn into monster Nor'Easters.

The current low folks are looking at is probably the first of many we will see between now and March 2016; I am more worried about the deeper ones coming down the line over the next several months.
Quoting 333. tampabaymatt:



The WPC is not showing much rain for the Tampa Bay area today. What's striking to me is that the Ruskin NWS has not issued a single flood watch, and have stated they don't plan to. The second it looked like ex-Erika was going to impact the Tampa Bay area, flood watches were flying like crazy given the saturated grounds here. Of course, we could get localized heavy rain and flooding, but it seems like the Ruskin NWS doesn't see this as a major, widespread, heavy rain event for our area.
I think you mean ex-Grace, but this is more related to a upper level trough already in the Gulf and secondarily to any small amount of energy being contributed by the tropical wave. I wouldn't expect more than the usual brief street flooding you guys get from a heavier storm but no general flooding. The TW has already moved into mid-Gulf, and it's one of the reasons that most of the rain is staying offshore. A low should form on this wave tomorrow and move back toward Florida but more toward south Florida than central Florida, enhancing their rain for day or so.

Quoting 332. Bucsboltsfan:



That doesn't look to show a tropical storm in the GOM.
By Sunday the low will be well on it's way to the Atlantic. The chances of a tropical storm from all this are very low.
Quoting 274. CapeCoralWx:

hope everyone enjoys above average temps, cause that's what you're gonna get next 6-10 days.



"Everybody" includes Alaska and they look to be below normal.

But yeah the above normal probabilities for most of the CONUS are pretty high. These are probabilities, not magnitudes.
Quoting 337. Grothar:




HRRR models are showing all this action in SE FL moving into Orlando later infact some local models showing up to 5" today across parts of E C FL.
Quoting 342. sar2401:

I think you mean ex-Grace, but this is more related to a upper level trough already in the Gulf and secondarily to any small amount of energy being contributed by the tropical wave. I wouldn't expect more than the usual brief street flooding you guys get from a heavier storm but no general flooding. The TW has already moved into mid-Gulf, and it's one of the reasons that most of the rain is staying offshore. A low should form on this wave tomorrow and move back toward Florida but more toward south Florida than central Florida, enhancing their rain for day or so.




I was comparing the current situation to the one when ex-Erika was coming to FL. ex-Erika didn't amount to much, but flood watches were issued for all of C FL.
Quoting 309. FunnelVortex:

Can anyone get an ascat image of 93L?
The ASCAT site is down. The last image was at 0230 UTC, about nine hours ago. FWIW, this is the last image. It shows unidirectional flow across the Gulf and some turning near the Yucatan Strait.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1148 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

AMZ630-FLZ068-072-074-075-168-172>174-162000-
BISCAYNE BAY-METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALM SPRINGS...FLORIDA GARDENS...
ABERDEEN...BOCA WEST...COCONUT CREEK...CORAL SPRINGS...TAMARAC...
SUNRISE...PLANTATION...DAVIE...COOPER CITY...HOLLYWOOD...
PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...MIAMI...MIAMI GARDENS...MIAMI LAKES...
HIALEAH...DORAL...SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL...CUTLER RIDGE...
FLAMINGO...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...
POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...
HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...
DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
1148 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015

.NOW...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE AND
INLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 25 MPH, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS.

$$
Quoting 346. tampabaymatt:



I was comparing the current situation to the one when ex-Erika was coming to FL. ex-Erika didn't amount to much, but flood watches were issued for all of C FL.
Ah. OK, missed that reference. Erika had much more energy in the Gulf than this weak TW from ex-Grace. Unless the upper level trough can start connecting with some of the moisture over Mexico, it's hard to see a widespread rain event.
Quoting 341. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Just another beautiful day in FL.
Quoting 339. barbamz:

Top winds from ex-tropical storm Henri in France so far (first: in the plains below 800m = 2624ft with a maximum of 135 km/h = 84 mph, then on the mountains)

Source Twitter:
Guillaume Séchet ‏@Meteovilles 22 Min.Vor 22 Minuten
Ex #tempête #Henri - Départements avec rafales à 100 km/h et plus en plaine et en montagne jusqu'à 17 h
Amazing. Good old Henri is providing more of a hurricane to France than it ever did in the Atlantic. It seems to be the case this year that any dissipating storm far enough north turns into a monster somewhere over Europe. You getting any thunder and lightning yet?
Quoting 350. tampabaymatt:



Just another beautiful day in FL.
You can see the high clouds over me in SE Alabama. Almost everything from central Florida north are high clouds at this point.
Quoting 343. sar2401:

By Sunday the low will be well on it's way to the Atlantic. The chances of a tropical storm from all this are very low.
says you.
Quoting 351. sar2401:

Amazing. Good old Henri is providing more of a hurricane to France than it ever did in the Atlantic. It seems to be the case this year that any dissipating storm far enough north turns into a monster somewhere over Europe. You getting any thunder and lightning yet?

It's approaching fast now, Sar. Although the line fizzled a bit after crossing the border to Germany ;-) Let's see what we'll get. Even some heavy rains would be breaking news in Mainz, lol. Mind, in Mainz we only got 250mm = barely 10 inches of rain so far in 2015. That means we're 410 mm = 16 inches below average, umm.

Edit: Live streaming weather cam of the sky above Mainz on Rhine at the university, looking north.
Quoting 330. hurricanes2018:


TD. nine, maybe wont make it to TS status... lets see....
Quoting 350. tampabaymatt:



Just another beautiful day in FL.

Sunny Florida : )

Stretched out a lil? Might be in for a a little bloom though. 09L. (this is the part where people
scramble to reply OTS FISH!!) heheh
heavy rain this morning more on the way 1 1/2 inches so far today e cen fl.
Quoting 352. sar2401:

You can see the high clouds over me in SE Alabama. Almost everything from central Florida north are high clouds at this point.


There is total cloud cover here in Tampa. This will really limit daytime heating instability today.
Broward and Palm Beach Counties are getting hammered. Lot more rain than I expected today.
Quoting 331. LargoFl:




In 3.5 days it has what looks like a strong tropical storm off of Baha when the NHC gives the disturbance (that I assume is the origininator of the storm shown) 5 day odds of only 10%.
The big picture; shear city in the Atlantic MDR regions (including Florida). Nice convective burst with TD nine but the shear is really working against it: it is already starting to elongate and stream convection off to the NE:



Yep. Looks like it's all staying offshore. Just like Sar predicted.


Ha Ha


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015



THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE FRAUGHT WITH
SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF INTENSITY OR TRACK SUFFICIENTLY DEVIANT FROM
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO PRECLUDE THEIR INCORPORATION INTO A MANUAL
BLEND AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE MOST RECENT GFS AND ECMWF WERE
MARKED BY APPRECIABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, AND THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS HURRICANE-HAPPY ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE POLAR FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL AFFORD THE FOCUS FOR MOST
OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME RANGE. THEREAFTER, THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC LIGHT UP, WITH SHOWERS FIRING ASTRIDE
THE EVER-SLOWING POLAR FRONT. THE OTHER AREA OF SHIFTING WEATHER
FORTUNE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST IS THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WHERE YET
ANOTHER TROPICALLY-ENHANCED SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS AIMED.
Quoting 357. Starhopper:


Stretched out a lil? Might be in for a a little bloom though. 09L. (this is the part where people
scramble to reply OTS FISH!!) heheh


That one, the models seem all over the place.
Sort of gives one so much confidence the experts know exactly what's going on with the weather, eh?
Quoting 345. StormTrackerScott:



HRRR models are showing all this action in SE FL moving into Orlando later infact some local models showing up to 5" today across parts of E C FL.



We must have gotten more than 3 inches since 7:30 this morning.
"Henri": Lots of reports of heavy damage due to strong winds and even tornadoes are coming in from France. Two persons died in the valley of Rhone (Alps).

Some pics in this French twitter feed: https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs
last vis. of td 9 lower part seems to be heading wnw
Quoting 347. sar2401:

The ASCAT site is down.

It is not. ASCAT site has been functioning fine all morning...Just got a pass and there maybe another at a slightly different area very soon.

Fresh ASCAT-A 25-km
Quoting 359. tampabaymatt:



There is total cloud cover here in Tampa. This will really limit daytime heating instability today.


Yeah if the sun doesn't come out, don't expect anything more than isolated thunderstorms. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and potential instability, but that potential won't be touched without the heating of the day to create the lifting mechanism. It won't take as much heating as usual though, thunderstorms are already breaking out in SW FL and the sun just came out an hour ago. It's hard to tell if the sun will actually come out in your area.

If the sun does come out and stays out for 3-4 hours, expect numerous thunderstorm growth, if not, a few meager showers might be all that develops.
Good news is that the southern part of the everglades is getting some much needed rain.
Really stormy over S. Brazil now!
376. MahFL
Quoting 366. nrtiwlnvragn:

Ha Ha


...THE POLAR FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...



A polar front at this time of year ?
Quoting 372. Skyepony:


It is not. ASCAT site has been functioning fine all morning...Just got a pass and there maybe another at a slightly different area very soon.

Fresh ASCAT-A 25-km



Was just watching a sat loop, and it looks interesting on your wind direction markers between the Yucatan and W FL/AL area.
Quoting 349. sar2401:

Ah. OK, missed that reference. Erika had much more energy in the Gulf than this weak TW from ex-Grace. Unless the upper level trough can start connecting with some of the moisture over Mexico, it's hard to see a widespread rain event.


The air mass over FL is more moist than Mexico, the problem is while the upper trough may provide upper level instability, that only applies to thunderstorms that already exist, but as of right now, the trough is being more of a hindrance for thunderstorms development over land areas than a help, it's blanketing much of the state with thick high clouds. Without heating, there won't be much of any rain over inland areas or west coast FL area regardless of how moist and potentially unstable the air is.

That same problem happened for the east side of the state and inland areas forecast wise back when those major rain events were occurring on the west coast of FL, while the west coast of FL saw several inches, the east coast of FL saw very little. The reason was not because the atmosphere was less favorable on the east side of the state, it was cause they simply didn't get enough heat despite all the moisture and instability. So these regions would lack rain during the same pattern despite having 80% rainfall chances.

Didn't the gulf have something going on?
Quoting 344. georgevandenberghe:



"Everybody" includes Alaska and they look to be below normal.

But yeah the above normal probabilities for most of the CONUS are pretty high. These are probabilities, not magnitudes.



Ok, almost everybody, and yes probabilities, like its probably going to be above average. I never said magnitudes but thanks for playing :)
Quoting 372. Skyepony:


It is not. ASCAT site has been functioning fine all morning...Just got a pass and there maybe another at a slightly different area very soon.

Fresh ASCAT-A 25-km

It is. You are using the KNMI site. That's a mirror site in the Netherlands. The http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat/ site is in fact down and returns this error:

"Google Chrome's connection attempt to manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov was rejected. The website may be down, or your network may not be properly configured."

As I said, the main ASCAT site is down.
383. MahFL
This bad news is for Northern CA :

"The proximity of the trough may destabilize the
atmosphere enough and generate increased ventilation for the
fires, and that`s not a good thing."
On the California fire front, don't know what the status will be when I check the news later this evening, but the current Conus jet pattern is not very helpful with all that wind that can fuel the fires and spread embers off into the air:


Quoting 383. MahFL:

This bad news is for Northern CA :

"The proximity of the trough may destabilize the
atmosphere enough and generate increased ventilation for the
fires, and that`s not a good thing."


We were thinking the same thing when we posted simultaneously.................
YourSCAT is out of order, mySCAT is out of order. ALL SCATS ARE OUT OF ORDER.
Quoting 378. Jedkins01:



The air mass over FL is more moist than Mexico, the problem is while the upper trough may provide upper level instability, that only applies to thunderstorms that already exist, but as of right now, the trough is being more of a hindrance for thunderstorms development over land areas than a help, it's blanketing much of the state with thick high clouds. Without heating, there won't be much of any rain over inland areas or west coast FL area regardless of how moist and potentially unstable the air is.

That same problem happened for the east side of the state and inland areas forecast wise back when those major rain events were occurring on the west coast of FL, while the west coast of FL saw several inches, the east coast of FL saw very little. The reason was not because the atmosphere was less favorable on the east side of the state, it was cause they simply didn't get enough heat despite all the moisture and instability. So these regions would lack rain during the same pattern despite having 80% rainfall chances.


I meant more toward this weekend, when some additional amount of moisture and lift would increase the general rains.
Clouds are trying to break in Pinellas county
Quoting 384. weathermanwannabe:

On the California fire front, don't know what the status will be when I check the news later this evening, but the current Conus jet pattern is not very helpful with all that wind that can fuel the fires and spread embers off into the air:



On the plus side, it shows increased onshore flow, so that will raise the humidity in the fire areas somewhat. That's a big component in fire behavior.
In the Northwest of the Rio Grande do Sul, we have more than 35ºC, Santa Catarina has nearly 38ºC before the storms.

A Supercell over South Brazil right now! The outbreak of severe thunderstorms with flood begun in this morning!
Models shows nearly 500 mm in 10 days!

#ElNiñoPattern #SuperElNiño



Quoting 388. Hurricanes101:

Clouds are trying to break in Pinellas county


Suns been out all morning here in Orlando and the HRRR & WRF models are showing a very active afternoon across the Metro extending toward Brevard County with spots of 5" expected.

Quoting 375. pablosyn:

Supercell over South Brazil right now! The outbreak of severe thunderstorms with flood begun in this morning!
Models shows nearly 500 mm in 10 days!

#ElNiñoPattern #SuperElNiño




You still need the rain though, right? How are you coping with the drought?
Quoting 373. Jedkins01:



Yeah if the sun doesn't come out, don't expect anything more than isolated thunderstorms. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and potential instability, but that potential won't be touched without the heating of the day to create the lifting mechanism. It won't take as much heating as usual though, thunderstorms are already breaking out in SW FL and the sun just came out an hour ago. It's hard to tell if the sun will actually come out in your area.

If the sun does come out and stays out for 3-4 hours, expect numerous thunderstorm growth, if not, a few meager showers might be all that develops.


You won't need to sun jed to get widespread rains as its coming. All of C FL is about to fill in over the next few hours. Atmosphere is very unstable!
Quoting 333. tampabaymatt:



The WPC is not showing much rain for the Tampa Bay area today. What's striking to me is that the Ruskin NWS has not issued a single flood watch, and have stated they don't plan to. The second it looked like ex-Erika was going to impact the Tampa Bay area, flood watches were flying like crazy given the saturated grounds here. Of course, we could get localized heavy rain and flooding, but it seems like the Ruskin NWS doesn't see this as a major, widespread, heavy rain event for our area.


Yeah it's probably because they've noticed that this pattern is looking similar to the last potentially large rain event, high thick clouds dramatically limited heating and thus rainfall coverage, which made those flood watches really unnecessary. This may evolve the same, and for that reason, no need to show high qpf and flood watches if high clouds will limit coverage and rain totals.

I mean, if the sun breaks out and thunderstorms become widespread, leading to very heavy rain totals, and then tomorrow and up being sunny, allowing more numerous thunderstorms to break out, then they would probably issue another flood watch. Otherwise no need.

Now if it was an onshore flow from the gulf, then it would be a different story, there would likely be widespread totals of 4-6 inches on the coast, and it would turn out similar to many of those events did in July and August. The reason for this is that ocean instability and convergence, while weak, is still plenty enough to generate persistent deep convection in tropical air masses regardless of cloud cover. It's the same reason tropical cyclones are able to exist as well.

But because the wind is offshore from land areas, without large scale synoptic lift like a strong front or hurricane, the atmosphere depends on strong heating over land areas to generate the lift to utilize available moisture and potential instability. It doesn't matter if the atmosphere is the most moist and unstable recorded on record, convection over land will always beak weak and limited without a limiting mechanism from heating or a synoptic scale system to generate lift.
Quoting 376. MahFL:



A polar front at this time of year ?


Actually yes. The polar front separates tropical air from colder air and is usually found somewhere in the midlatitudes. In the warm season it's often not very cold behind it although it is usually a lot drier.

The Arctic front is another animal. Arctic air disappears in the Northern Hemisphere from late May to mid September (Late August in the old days when the Arctic ocean stayed ice covered almost to the coast).

Air masses with arctic qualities (very cold close to the surface) can form over the summer Greenland Ice Cap but that is over 5000 feet above sea level and they can't
reach the surface without adiabatic warming from sinking hence again.. not very cold in summer

That does make me speculate what kind of arctic airmass could have formed over the continental ice sheets even in midsummer in North America and how far south these penetrated once they got off the ice at about 40N. Again with the ice sheets thousands of feet thick they would have sunk and hence modified a lot as soon as they got off the ice.
Quoting 394. Jedkins01:



Yeah it's probably because they've noticed that this pattern is looking similar to the last potentially large rain event, high thick clouds dramatically limited heating and thus rainfall coverage, which made those flood watches really unnecessary. This may evolve the same, and for that reason, no need to show high qpf and flood watches if high clouds will limit coverage and rain totals.

I mean, if the sun breaks out and thunderstorms become widespread, leading to very heavy rain totals, and then tomorrow and up being sunny, allowing more numerous thunderstorms to break out, then they would probably issue another flood watch. Otherwise no need.

Now if it was an onshore flow from the gulf, then it would be a different story, there would likely be widespread totals of 4-6 inches on the coast, and it would turn out similar to many of those events did in July and August. The reason for this is that ocean instability and convergence, while weak, is still plenty enough to generate persistent deep convection in tropical air masses regardless of cloud cover. It's the same reason tropical cyclones are able to exist as well.

But because the wind is offshore from land areas, without large scale synoptic lift like a strong front or hurricane, the atmosphere depends on strong heating over land areas to generate the lift to utilize available moisture and potential instability. It doesn't matter if the atmosphere is the most moist and unstable recorded on record, convection over land will always beak weak and limited without a limiting mechanism from heating or a synoptic scale system to generate lift.


The clouds are starting to break up here. The last NWS forecast I saw said most of the rain would occur after 3pm anyway
Quoting 364. swflurker:

Yep. Looks like it's all staying offshore. Just like Sar predicted.



I wish that blob off the Panhandle would move onshore and give me the chance of rain but, alas, that's not going to happen. While the Gulf convection stays closer to the TW and further from the west coast, the SE coast is getting a pretty good dousing with the easterly flow. If those storms and their attendant high clouds move far enough west, and the sun starts to come out, there still could be some pretty good storms on the west coast.
Quoting 394. Jedkins01:



Yeah it's probably because they've noticed that this pattern is looking similar to the last potentially large rain event, high thick clouds dramatically limited heating and thus rainfall coverage, which made those flood watches really unnecessary. This may evolve the same, and for that reason, no need to show high qpf and flood watches if high clouds will limit coverage and rain totals.

I mean, if the sun breaks out and thunderstorms become widespread, leading to very heavy rain totals, and then tomorrow and up being sunny, allowing more numerous thunderstorms to break out, then they would probably issue another flood watch. Otherwise no need.

Now if it was an onshore flow from the gulf, then it would be a different story, there would likely be widespread totals of 4-6 inches on the coast, and it would turn out similar to many of those events did in July and August. The reason for this is that ocean instability and convergence, while weak, is still plenty enough to generate persistent deep convection in tropical air masses regardless of cloud cover. It's the same reason tropical cyclones are able to exist as well.

But because the wind is offshore from land areas, without large scale synoptic lift like a strong front or hurricane, the atmosphere depends on strong heating over land areas to generate the lift to utilize available moisture and potential instability. It doesn't matter if the atmosphere is the most moist and unstable recorded on record, convection over land will always beak weak and limited without a limiting mechanism from heating or a synoptic scale system to generate lift.


Jed don't be fooled HRRR very accurate shows rain all night for C FL. Orlando to the coast is forecast to get very active soon.
Quoting 393. StormTrackerScott:



You won't need to sun jed to get widespread rains as its coming. All of C FL is about to fill in over the next few hours. Atmosphere is very unstable!


Just a reminder, I'm actually living in Tallahassee now cause I'm back at school. But anyways, I disagree though. instability can't be utilized without a lifting mechanism. Orlando may be far enough east to tap into the maritime instability generated convection, so it's possible even with cloudiness that you could get heavy action. But I assure you without sun, there simply won't be enough of a limiting mechanism to tap into the available moisture and instability for the west side of the state for widespread activity.

But it's worth noting that I didn't say that activity for sure would be limited. If the sun comes out and stays out, then yes, activity will be numerous and very heavy, but otherwise, if the Tampa Bay area doesn't get sun, I am fully confident from a physics perspective that activity will remain isolated.
However, because the atmosphere has no inhibition at all to deep convection give the amount of moisture and instability, any areas that do get heating, activity will develop quickly.
Quoting 387. sar2401:

I meant more toward this weekend, when some additional amount of moisture and lift would increase the general rains.


Oh ok, that makes sense.
Quoting 380. Wi11iAm:

Didn't the gulf have something going on?
There's a tropical wave out there with some weak and scattered convection. Those storms are unlikely to affect anyone on land today. By tomorrow, a low should form and start to move toward Florida. That should increase the rain again. If you mean something of a tropical nature, there's a small chance a weak depression could form Friday night and make an almost immediate landfall in south Florida. That doesn't looks very likely at this time.
Got some rain moving in now. The heaviest storms are north of me, up in Fernandina Beach and King's Bay, GA.
Quoting 399. Jedkins01:



Just a reminder, I'm actually living in Tallahassee now cause I'm back at school. But anyways, I disagree though. instability is useless without a lifting mechanism to utilize it. Orlando may be far enough east to tap into the maritime instability generated convection, so it's possible even with cloudiness that you could get heavy action. But I assure you without sun, there simply won't be enough of a limiting mechanism to tap into the available moisture and instability for the west side of the state.

But it's worth noting that I didn't say that activity for sure would be limited. If the sun comes out and stays out, then yes, activity will be numerous and very heavy, but otherwise, if the Tampa Bay area doesn't get sun, I am fully confident from a physics perspective that activity will remain isolated.
However, because the atmosphere has no inhibition at all to deep convection give the amount of moisture and instability, any areas that do get heating, activity will develop quickly.


Not going to happen Jed as activity from SE FL is moving NW and is expected to move across C FL later today. This was predicted by all models days in advance. Looks like a trough axis is moving NW as a result of a low forming in the East/central Gulf.

Also these same models are showing rain across C FL all night. Totals could be very significant in areas especially across Eastern FL.
Quoting 401. sar2401:

There's a tropical wave out there with some weak and scattered convection. Those storms are unlikely to affect anyone on land today. By tomorrow, a low should form and start to move toward Florida. That should increase the rain again. If you mean something of a tropical nature, there's a small chance a weak depression could form Friday night and make an almost immediate landfall in south Florida. That doesn't looks very likely at this time.


Don't worry, we'll probably have at least someone saying they see a "pinhole eye" if a large convective blowup occurs, lol.
95C is firing some intense convection, watching the Central Pacific has been interesting this year. In fact, the last few years has been pretty active there, I think it was 2014 when Julio re-strengthened to a hurricane at a rather high latitude for that basin, that was fun to watch.

95C
Quoting 396. Hurricanes101:



The clouds are starting to break up here. The last NWS forecast I saw said most of the rain would occur after 3pm anyway


Very thick cloud cover persists where I'm at in Tampa. I see no hint of any sunshine.
Quoting 354. barbamz:


It's approaching fast now, Sar. Although the line fizzled a bit after crossing the border to Germany ;-) Let's see what we'll get. Even some heavy rains would be breaking news in Mainz, lol. Mind, in Mainz we only got 250mm = barely 10 inches of rain so far in 2015. That means we're 410 mm = 16 inches below average, umm.

Edit: Live streaming weather cam of the sky above Mainz on Rhine at the university, looking north.
That's quite a deficit, especially for Germany. I'm trying to remember the last time I traveled in Germany and it didn't rain at least once a week. Let's see...never! My memories of Germany was it was much like Ohio. Cloudy, then some sun, then it got hot, then it rained, but cloudy more than anything else. I hope this is just one bad year.
406. txjac

you tell them tx :-)
Looks as if there is a surface trough moving NW from SE FL. HRRR models stalls this trough across Tampa to JAX tonight and that is the reason for the rainy night being predicted by these short range models. This trough axis extends to a surface low forming in the SE Gulf.

Quoting 407. tampabaymatt:



Very thick cloud cover persists where I'm at in Tampa. I see no hint of any sunshine.


Storms firing here.
Quoting 376. MahFL:



A polar front at this time of year ?


Its that time of year.....

NWS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 18h18 hours ago

The #winter weather desk is back for the '15-'16 season! View our forecasts here! #snow http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml …

Link
Quoting 404. Jedkins01:



Don't worry, we'll probably have at least someone saying they see a "pinhole eye" if a large convective blowup occurs, lol.
I already see an eye! :-)

With the lack of "eyes" this season, almost any break in the clouds is going to qualify.
Quoting 412. nrtiwlnvragn:



Its that time of year.....

NWS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 18h18 hours ago

The #winter weather desk is back for the '15-'16 season! View our forecasts here! #snow http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml …

Link
I wish the winter weather desk could push some of that down our way.
WRF model for this evening.

Quoting 326. FunnelVortex:

TD9 not expected to become Ida...

Dang, because it is the best depression I've seen all year.

Looks like a blob of garbage to me! We've seen better this year.
We need some rain the last measurable amount was 1/4" almost a month ago. Hey Florida send us some of your rain to south central MS.
Even more recent.. ASCAT-B Coastal
Quoting 292. Neapolitan:

Arctic sea ice extent and area have already reached their annual minimums, where they were recorded as near the lowest on record.

Yes, in the entire 36 year satellite record, 2015 is the sixth lowest. Both 2013 and 2014 had significantly higher minimum extents by about 500,000 square km. On the other hand, the low minimum year of 2012 was about 1,000,000 square km. lower than this year, and the low occurred a few days later.

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area
I miss Aislinpaps's "breakfast on the sideboard". this always used to brighten my day. I wonder where she went.
Quoting 422. lobdelse81:

I miss Aislinpaps's "breakfast on the sideboard". this always used to brighten my day. I wonder where she went.


It always made me sad as I stared into my bowl of raisin bran.
Quoting 415. Grothar:




The Gulf is cooking something up! Probably on the rare side though.
Quoting 395. georgevandenberghe:



Actually yes. The polar front separates tropical air from colder air and is usually found somewhere in the midlatitudes. In the warm season it's often not very cold behind it although it is usually a lot drier.

The Arctic front is another animal. Arctic air disappears in the Northern Hemisphere from late May to mid September (Late August in the old days when the Arctic ocean stayed ice covered almost to the coast).

Air masses with arctic qualities (very cold close to the surface) can form over the summer Greenland Ice Cap but that is over 5000 feet above sea level and they can't
reach the surface without adiabatic warming from sinking hence again.. not very cold in summer

That does make me speculate what kind of arctic airmass could have formed over the continental ice sheets even in midsummer in North America and how far south these penetrated once they got off the ice at about 40N. Again with the ice sheets thousands of feet thick they would have sunk and hence modified a lot as soon as they got off the ice.


I have sometimes wondered if the southern boundary of the ice sheets could have acted as a focus for the position of the polar jet, resulting in screaming zonal flow year round and limiting the southward penetration of arctic air year round.
Quoting 422. lobdelse81:

I miss Aislinpaps's "breakfast on the sideboard". this always used to brighten my day. I wonder where she went.


See post #231

Edit: Still drops in here too.
Quoting 375. pablosyn:

Really stormy over S. Brazil now!

Obrigado, pablosyn
Thanks for the information Jed. Your knowledge about weather and climate is much appreciated here.


wow look at invest 95L nice around now only needs rain in the center
Quoting 431. hurricanes2018:



wow look at invest 95L nice around now only needs rain in the center
nice spin with invest 95L
SW Florida getting the good stuff now.
Quoting 406. txjac:



Please stop with the GOP bashing ...there are conservative/republican members on the blog that do not agree with the stance being taken on climate.

Dont lump everyone into the same category

Funnel, I shouldnt have responded by quoting you ...even though I'd like to see things change it wasnt fair of me to pick your post to quote. I apologize


You're absolutely right.
Fact is, any time a tropical weather system nears the TX coast, it reminds some of us that all politicians are crooked.
That's because there's some dude in the Houston area who refused to do discrimination against blacks and is living in a tent due to it all. He had proof the employer lied to labor officials and in court and had emails showing he refused to do the discrimination, but the courts and govt ignored all that and run his cases out without doing anything and not letting a jury see any of the evidence. Some of the info I've seen online is indicating he's tried to get help from a variety of govt figures and politicians but they don't seem eager to go against judges who do felonies or break up the cronyism in the court system. The man could die if they get a strong storm, if he has nowhere to go. It makes me even more wary of every one of them to see what they've done and how it has all been covered up.

I got to say one thing though, that wild man Cruz could be his only lifesaver. He may be a republican, but he seems to have tried to go to the EEOC on it all at some point. Its still being covered up though, and so the poor fellow faces the weather whatever they get there.
Quoting 399. Jedkins01:



Just a reminder, I'm actually living in Tallahassee now cause I'm back at school. But anyways, I disagree though. instability can't be utilized without a lifting mechanism. Orlando may be far enough east to tap into the maritime instability generated convection, so it's possible even with cloudiness that you could get heavy action. But I assure you without sun, there simply won't be enough of a limiting mechanism to tap into the available moisture and instability for the west side of the state for widespread activity.

But it's worth noting that I didn't say that activity for sure would be limited. If the sun comes out and stays out, then yes, activity will be numerous and very heavy, but otherwise, if the Tampa Bay area doesn't get sun, I am fully confident from a physics perspective that activity will remain isolated.
However, because the atmosphere has no inhibition at all to deep convection give the amount of moisture and instability, any areas that do get heating, activity will develop quickly.
since the heavy rains in july/aug your correct about these predictions. seems we have had several systems calling for heavy rain on the west coast fl area and they never materialized and each time it was like today, very cloudy. hopefully this one doesnt materialize either, tired of the rain. bring on autumn.
Quoting 431. hurricanes2018:



wow look at invest 95L nice around now only needs rain in the center
Once it gets that burst, it's a depression.
Quoting 313. ElConando:

Grothar, the messenger of the weather gods!


I pray to the Weather Gods.

And the blood god.
I see there have been some discussions about a possible "low" forming in the eastern GOM. The early AM discussion from Ruskin/Tampa Bay discusses it in the Long Term..

Link
Quoting 431. hurricanes2018:



wow look at invest 95L nice around now only needs rain in the center


Good banding features.

Perhaps the curse of the I will be broken this year
Okay, here once again your German "CaribBoy", always longing for rain :-) For all who are curious about my horrible fate with ex-TS "Henri" in Germany: nothing happened, just some gentle rains (still ongoing) with 4 mm so far, added to the 11 mm earlier = total of 15 mm of rain from Henri for me in Mainz today = 0,6 inches, lol. Others nearby got the double or threefold amount, though. There is another line of storms forming in France which may move over my place later. Wait and see.

As I've already mentioned, France was hit much harder. Here some pics of a tornado damage from Charente-Maritime:


Source: Keraunos Observatoire.


Current airmass pic. The strange straight line over France is probably due to the jet stream.


Jet stream right now.

I call it a night for now - all the best from Germany, see you tomorrow.
Quoting 415. Grothar:


NAM for tonight at 8 pm.



Saturday afternoon:



Quoting 422. lobdelse81:

I miss Aislinpaps's "breakfast on the sideboard". this always used to brighten my day. I wonder where she went.


I concur with that sentiment even if I couldn't ever be there to partake of the breakfast. Made me feel better just to think of it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
446. Wrass
A real Frog Strangular goin on now Sw Cape Coral fl. Slow moving.. 2.5 per hour.
447. Wrass
Picked up again 2.75 per hour..! Haven't seen this in a while.
Quoting 442. GTstormChaserCaleb:

NAM for tonight at 8 pm.



Saturday afternoon:




Que mucha gente inteligente
Quoting 443. georgevandenberghe:



I concur with that sentiment even if I couldn't ever be there to partake of the breakfast. Made me feel better just to think of it.



It was just a bunch of non-weather-related claptrap unnecessarily taking up space, day after day after day.