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Disturbances 93L and 94L Little Threat; All-Time Record Heat in the Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:41 PM GMT on September 13, 2015

An area of disturbed weather has developed along the boundary of a stalled cold front in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that 94L has a some respectable rotation and a moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms, but this activity was not well-organized. Long-range radar out of Brownsville, Texas showed heavy rain from 94L was affecting the Mexican coast, about 100 - 200 miles south of the Texas border. Wind shear was high, near 30 knots, and the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain high, 20 - 30 knots, through Tuesday. These are marginal conditions for development, even though ocean temperatures are very warm--near 30°C (86°F). None of our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis develop 94L, and they show little movement of the disturbance through Tuesday. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday, if needed.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 94L.

Invest 93L in the Central Atlantic may develop
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands on Sunday morning was moving west to west-northwestwards at about 15 mph. The wave showed a modest increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity overnight, and was designated Invest 93L by NHC on Sunday morning. Conditions are favorable for development, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures at 28°C (83°F), and only a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer lying to the north of the disturbance. The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that the wind shear over 93L through Thursday would be light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, ocean temperatures would remain near 28°, and the atmosphere would remain relatively moist. Two of our three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET and GFS models, forecasted in their 00Z Sunday runs that the wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Wednesday. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively. It appears likely that this wave will curve to the north well before it can affect the Lesser Antilles Islands. The next name on the 2015 Atlantic list is "Ida".


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of 93L.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic: more fish storms
NHC is mentioning two other areas of interest in their Tropical Weather Outlook: an area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic about about 975 miles southwest of the Azores, far from any land areas, is being given 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0%. A tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on Sunday. All three of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (UKMET, European, and GFS), in their 00Z Sunday runs, predicted that this wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Thursday. In their 2 pm EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. This wave will likely follow a path similar to 93L, turning northwards well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands. That is likely to be a common fate of tropical waves emerging from the coast of Africa during the remainder of September; we now have an active jet stream across the North Atlantic that is bringing frequent strong troughs of low pressure capable of recurving tropical disturbances to the north.

Remains of Grace bringing rain to the Caribbean
The remains of Tropical Storm Grace are bringing a few showers to Hispaniola and surrounding islands, but high wind shear will discourage any development. Grace's remains brought heavy rain and renewed flooding to the island of Dominica on Saturday, where 31 people died in floods due to Tropical Storm Erika in August. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 6" fell on the island from Grace's remains, according to the Antigua Met Service. Unfortunately, Grace's remains did little to alleviate the drought in Puerto Rico; San Juan picked up just a trace a rain on Saturday, and is still over 10" below the usual 34" of rain that they should have received by this point in the year.

All-time record heat in the Caribbean
Record heat scorched the Caribbean again on Saturday. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, an all-time heat record was set on the island of Anguilla in the Lesser Antilles: 33.8°C (92.8°F), besting the record of 33.7°C set just four days previously. The Cuban capital of La Habana (Havana) also recorded its hottest temperature on record and the hottest temperature ever measured in September in Cuba, with 38.2°C (100.8°F) at the Casablanca Observatory. Havana's previous all-time heat record was set just a few months ago, on April 26, 2015: 37.0°C. According to an email I received from Cuban meteorologist Alejandro Adonis Herrera G., one of the instruments at the site recorded 38.1°C, but with maximum thermometer and technical corrections it was decided that the record is 38.2°C.


Figure 3. Temperature trace from the instrument at Havana's Casablanca Observatory on September 12, 2015. The station hit 38.2°C (100.8°F), the hottest temperature ever recorded in Havana. Image credit: Alejandro Adonis Herrera G.

Record heat and drought has been widespread over the Caribbean this summer, with the worst drought conditions occurring over Haiti, Eastern Cuba, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Honduras, and Costa Rica. Reuters reported last month that Cuba began a two-month cloud-seeding campaign in September over the eastern part of the Caribbean island in hopes of easing its worst drought since at least 1901. The atmospheric circulation associated with the strong El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific has brought warm, sinking air and high pressure to the Caribbean, and has contributed to many cities recording their all-time highest temperatures on record. Another big factor in Saturday's record highs, and the record highs all across the Caribbean this year, is the fact that the year-to-date period of 2015 has been the warmest on record for the globe as a whole. Here is Mr. Herrera's list of cities in countries bordering the Caribbean that have set all-time heat records this year:

Cuba
Havana (Cuba), max. 38.1°C, September 12
Cienfuegos (Cuba) max. 37.0°C July 6
Jucaro (Cuba) max. 36.8°C July 10
Jucaro (Cuba) max. 37.0°C July 28
Contramaestre (Cuba) max. 38.2°C July 29
Isabel Rubio Airport (Cuba) max. 36.3°C July 29
Indio Hatuey (Cuba) max. 38.1°C July 30
Holguin (Cuba), max. 38.7°C, April 26
Guaro (Cuba), max. 38.0°C, April 26
Contramaestre (Cuba), max. 37.7°C, April 27
Velasco (Cuba), max. 38.6°C, April 28
Ciego de Avila (Cuba), max. 38.0°C, April 28
Puerto Padre (Cuba), max. 38.4°C, April 29
Punta Lucrecia (Cuba), max. 37.3°C, April 29
Nuevitas (Cuba), max. 38.5°C, April 30

Colombia
Riohacha (Colombia) max. 40.6°C July 13
Cartagena, Colombia, max. 40.4°C, June 24
Santa Marta, Colombia, max, 38.6°C, June 24
Arjona, Colombia, max, 40°C, June 24
Urumitia, Colombia, max, 42.0°C, June 27
Riohacha, Colombia, max, 40.0°C, June 29

Mexico
Merida (Mexico), max. 43.6°C, April 26

Honduras
Tela (Honduras), max. 40.6°C, April 28

Venezuela
Coro (Venezuela), max. 43.6°C, April 29 (New all-time national record high for Venezuela)

Dominican Republic
Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic), 37.2°C, August 27

U.S. Virgin Islands
Charlotte Amalie (U.S. VI), 35.6°C (96°F), September 10 (all time high for the station and the U.S. Virgin Islands)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

My little brother is the fourth child for Mom. She's counting down the days (to may) when my brother graduates high school. She said she was sad when my older brother left, but now she can't wait to kick the last child out.

You old people are making me cry. I was the one who had the problem being separated from my parents. Sure I had camp, but that was close by to my parents. Being separated from home by 800 miles is quite a shock. Mom and Dad meanwhile, were like "Yay, another one gone." Well...Dad was more like "I got this thing from your school...it says "tuition bill"....I blame you." Thanks Dad.

-----

Fall weather today. Campus flooded yesterday. Did State College say anything about the potential for flooding after a heavy rain two days earlier? Noooo. >.< Looked out my window to see a pond growing towards my room. Streets were flooded, campus was a network of islands...waterfalls and rivers where there were stairs and drainage pikes.
Impressive water spout captured off the coast of Miami Beach via the NWS Miami facebook page, looks like it would have meant business if it had came ashore:



Quoting 492. TimTheWxMan:




Geography major, GIS minor.


Nice, I'm also a senior, major is meteorology and a minor in physics/math.
Quoting 502. Jedkins01:

Impressive water spout captured off the coast of Miami Beach via the NWS Miami facebook page, looks like it would have meant business if it had came ashore:




Or if you were out in a boat.
Quoting 497. Dakster:

I now I am late -- but working nights you tend to not wake up during the day... So a late, Shana Tova.

The rain, wind, lightning, thunder lately has been playing with my sleep schedule. Lightning hit the street behind my house and caused a water main to burst and the windows to blow out of two of neighbors behind me... It was enough to wake me up out of a REALLY sound sleep.

Happy 5775 to you.
Hopefully you'll sleep better in the New Year.
Quoting 504. sar2401:

Scott also never ceases to amaze me, kind of like the Browns. How did that intense low off Tampa work out, Scott? Someday, you'll learn to read more than one model.


I know the Dolphins are going to the Super Bowl this year. They just bought their tickets.
Quoting 506. CosmicEvents:


Happy 5775 to you.
Hopefully you'll sleep better in the New Year.


Thanks, It is actually 5776 now. (at least according to an online gregorian to jewish calendar conversion program).
Quoting 480. EstherD:


Depends on a single high-probability event (state of the light switch) and any number of much lower probability events (tripped breaker, falling tree limb brought wires down, transformer exploded, trouble on the high-tension feeder lines, etc.) Kinda like predicting the weather. ;)
was more thinking and like 12 volts at half an amp. You know, just enough for a tingle without being fatal. :-)
Quoting 511. sar2401:

was more thinking and like 12 volts at half an amp. You know, just enough for a tingle without being fatal. :-)

Never had any worries handling live lines carrying up to about 25 volts. But getting crossed up with the 40 volts on an open circuit copper telephone loop was definitely a wakeup call. Was only too happy to see vacuum tubes fade into history in favor of low-voltage transistor and IC circuitry. Don't even want to think about those days in HS and college when I was doing TV repair on live 20-30 kV high-voltage CRT power supplies!
Quoting 511. sar2401:

was more thinking and like 12 volts at half an amp. You know, just enough for a tingle without being fatal. :-)


12 volts isn't enough to even overcome the resistance of human skin. Car batteries carry a lot of available amps, but voltage is too weak to give you even tingle. It's based on ohms law, which I'm sure you're aware of.

Wall sockets in the U.S. are usually 115-125 volts at 10-15 amps, though usually resistance will weaken the amount of amps you receive, probably more like 1-2. But yeah, wall socket shocks will give more than a tingle, it's pretty sharp pain.

I was playing with Christmas lights as a kid when I was 10 and I grabbed an area of an old set where insulation was missing and I didn't see it while it was live. My hand muscle cramped around it and I had current flow through me for about 10-15 long seconds, I could feel the accumulation of internal burns starting to happen along with nerve damage, almost passed out as my vision got cloudy. I had the shakes for an hour and some irregular heart beats.

My dad is an electrical engineer and said the current path went through my heart and should have killed me based on that duration. It was down right scary, never been anywhere near so close to death before, even though I've had other electrical accidents as an experimental kid, and just from pure bad chance events.

Btw, the weird thing about electric shocks and the human body, is that sometimes people survive extremely powerful shocks, and sometimes people die from shocks like 120 volt wall sockets. The tricky thing is that it's really all about current path and duration. A person could grab a 12,000 volt, 1000 amp neighborhood power line that you'll find up on wooden poles and be blown through the air and have severe burns and/or limbs lost from the shear power from such a massive amount of voltage and current but survive if the current bypasses the main organs. While a person could have a muscle cramp from a lower power source and be shocked repeatedly until eventually dying if the path is through heart.

Anyways one tricky myth to be weary of, is that you'll often hear the statement "don't worry about the voltage, it's the amps that kill". Physics disagrees. Amps is a measure of electric current, but voltage is potential energy, so it directly determines current after resistance is measured. The simple equation of ohms law is the proof that voltage determines current after determining ohms(resistance).

For example, you could touch a battery that has 12 volts and 1000 amps, and while it's still a scary thought, human skin has too many ohms for it to hurt you unless you have open cuts and are submerged in slat water, lol.
But anyways, if you were to contact a wire of 1000 volts and 12 amps, the result instead would be very bad, a large shock would result leading to burns, severe pain, and maybe death depending on path and duration of shock.

The reason why tasers are rarely fatal is that their power source is a small scale battery that simply doesn't have the available power to be deadly, so the high voltage simply has such an incredibly small amp source, it hurts only instead of being deadly.
But hook up a taser's voltage potential to a larger power source like a car battery, or worse, electric wires in the home and you'll be taking 50,000 volts with a much larger power source. The result would be a device of death and horror that only a sadistic freak would think of using on someone instead of a non-lethal tool to avoid shooting.
96W got a haircut.

Quoting 512. EstherD:


Never had any worries handling live lines carrying up to about 25 volts. But getting crossed up with the 40 volts on an open circuit copper telephone loop was definitely a wakeup call. Was only too happy to see vacuum tubes fade into history in favor of low-voltage transistor and IC circuitry. Don't even want to think about those days in HS and college when I was doing TV repair on live 20-30 kV high-voltage CRT power supplies!


I remember when me and some friends found a neon transformer in an old neon sign at the dump that still was in good condition and attached it to a car battery to make a jacobs ladder. It was scary, dangerous, and well, stupid. The method we used wasn't safe, as we didn't exactly have lineman grade gloves to insulate us from the 10,000 volt output and I didn't know that much about electrical physics, and none of us did. We were just young teenage boy's with potentially deadly curiosity. Though I can't deny that watching the arcs burn grass, newspaper, and such was fun.
Quoting 514. TimSoCal:

96W got a haircut.




Conclusion? El Nino is one heck of Barber.
513. Jedkins01
Sounds like you were extremely lucky. I'm guessing a hand-to-hand current path. Typically fatal at US standard line voltage and current levels, as the current pathway is directly through the heart. Very fortunate that you had someone nearby who could come to your aid.

You're 100% correct about the voltage, not current, as being the important parameter in determining lethality.

The other main factors are current pathway, current return and resistance.

Current flow through the heart is the killer. So hand-to-hand is the worst. Hand-to-foot is also bad, but the severity depends on which hand and which foot, because that determines whether a significant fraction of the total current flows through the heart or not. So left hand to right foot is typically the worst, while right hand to right foot is typically not so bad.

Current return is important, too, since current can only flow in a closed circuit. And the better the return, the higher the current flow. That's why grabbing a water pipe (faucet) and a live wire is typically deadly. Or grabbing a live wire while standing in a puddle of water (bathtub).

Finally there's the resistance factor. Dry skin is pretty high resistance, so safer. Wet skin lowers the resistance, so worse. And worst is direct contact with the muscle or fat beneath the outer dry skin layer, e.g. through a cut or through per-cutaneous wires attached to a medical implant.

The lineman's rule is "rubber boots and gloves" when handling any wire that might be live. My safety rule when handling high-voltage in old CRT TV sets was "one hand in a pocket".
Quoting 515. Jedkins01:



I remember when me and some friends found a neon transformer in an old neon sign at the dump that still was in good condition and attached it to a car battery to make a jacobs ladder. It was scary, dangerous, and well, stupid. The method we used wasn't safe, as we didn't exactly have lineman grade gloves to insulate us from the 10,000 volt output and I didn't know that much about electrical physics, and none of us did. We were just young teenage boy's with potentially deadly curiosity. Though I can't deny that watching the arcs burn grass, newspaper, and such was fun.

Ahhh. The joys of neon sign transformers. And Model T Ford spark coils. All readily available on the surplus market in the late 50's and 60's. Also 250 volt B batteries scavenged from the town's telephone central office trash bins. ;)

Looking back on it now, from the risk-intolerant view of today's parents, it's amazing to me that we were allowed to play with such deadly stuff. And a wonder, perhaps, given the number of accidents we had with them, that we all survived to tell the tale!
One more comment on the hazards of electricity and then I'll stop. (But note that all of this is directly relevant to lightning strikes as well.)

Direct current (DC), which is present inside most consumer electronic devices (and lightning!), is often less likely to be fatal, even at a higher voltage, than alternating current (AC), which is what comes out of the wall socket. Why? Because AC is more likely to cause the heart to fibrillate, whereas DC is more likely to paralyze the heart muscle temporarily. Once the heart is fibrillating, medical help is usually needed to get it going again. But spontaneous recovery from heart muscle paralysis is possible, hence a DC shock is less likely to be fatal.
Oh, I can't resist! In HS I was fascinated with lightning, and collected a number of stories about it. Here's a good one...

Stormy day. Cows in a rocky field with a tree in the center. Lightning hits the tree. All the cows that were facing either directly towards or away from the tree were killed. All the others survived.

Why? Because the ground current from the lightning strike had to travel through the rocky soil, which had a very high resistance. Because of Ohms law, a huge voltage gradient was created in the soil over short distances, with the highest voltage nearest the tree and decreasing as one got farther away from it.

There was a greater distance between the front and back feet of the cows that were facing either directly towards or away from the tree than between the right and left feet of the cows that were turned sideways. That greater distance resulted in a much greater voltage difference between the front and back feet of those cows than between the right and left feet of the cows that were turned sideways. And this higher voltage resulted in a much higher current flow in the cows that were facing either directly towards or away from the tree, which was what killed them.

Takeaway message: If caught in the open during a lightning storm, you do not want to be the tallest object. But lying down is risky, since in the event of a close ground strike, there may be a large voltage difference between where your head and feet contact the ground. So instead of lying down, squat down, with your feet as close together as possible, to minimize the risk that you'll end up like one of the unlucky cows.

Windblown...
Quoting 514. TimSoCal:

96W got a haircut.




Wow, look at that split! That's Yin and Yang right there.

93.classic.cv.t.w
528. viman
Am I the only one not buying the whole expected northward move on 93L??
I mean, I know about the weakness in the ridge and the model agreement, but I don't think 93L agrees. Ijs
cmc is going to bananas someone tell the developer of this model its an el nino yr. gfs is interesting in that it does not take the upstream tw with 93 to the north instead keeps it moving wnw
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure
system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day
or two while it moves generally northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


INVEST 93L what happern to it rain and t.storms!!
here is comment from melbourne nws THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE scott mentioned this three days ago
In told everyone yesterday that 93L wouldn't make that move north.... so this is not a fish storm guys. However it weakened overnight?
Quoting 533. Camerooski:

In told everyone yesterday that 93L wouldn't make that move north.... so this is not a fish storm guys. However it weakened overnight?


What are you seeing that the computer models and expert mets don't? Because, every model I can think of is showing this staying OTS.

Quoting 532. islander101010:

here is comment from melbourne nws THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE scott mentioned this three days ago


I understand that the models are showing this scenario, and Florida mets and the NWS have latched on. But, this seems like a heck of a reach to me. Ex-Grace looks like nothing more than some clouds to me, so I'm surprised the models are latching on to this being such a big rainmaker for FL. It certainly wasn't a big rainmaker for most of the Caribbean. But, the way this summer has gone, nothing would surprise me.
Quoting 532. islander101010:

here is comment from melbourne nws THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE scott mentioned this three days ago
..he mentioned it well after I did:P

GEOS-5 is still showing the merge and rain for Thursday. Something new here this morning is a split with one weak low going west in the gulf.


The other weak low is shown taking more the path I've been discussing but a hair to the east, up the coast. First run of this scenario so it will be interesting if we get a troff split. With the shear this year has had in that area, wouldn't surprise.. Almost looked like that was ex-Grace going west & the low from the troff going NE..


AL, 93, 2015091318, , BEST, 0, 104N, 355W, 25, 1011, LO
AL, 93, 2015091400, , BEST, 0, 106N, 365W, 25, 1011, LO
AL, 93, 2015091406, , BEST, 0, 110N, 375W, 25, 1011, LO

Quoting 534. tampabaymatt:



What are you seeing that the computer models and expert mets don't? Because, every model I can think of is showing this staying OTS.


What are YOU seeing? Every model has been wrong so far. 93L was supposed to make that turn hours ago. It still hasn't. In fact it is actually weakening. This will help as it won't be so affected by the weakness to the north.... So don't tell me I'm wrong. I haven't been wrong yet about this one. I can guarantee that 93L wont move north.... :)
Quoting 478. Jedkins01:



Don't even get me started on the Bucs, that was some sad nonsense today. First time in a while I've seen the stadium that full and they stunk up the joint. I remember back when the Bucs won the super bowl, those were some good times. Of course that was so long ago I was still playing ding dong ditch and skipping homework.


The Bucs are an embarrassment. Jameis Winston had no business being the #1 overall pick for a variety of reasons, one of which is he's not that good of a QB. Any time FSU played a halfway decent team, he struggled. Some of the passes he made in yesterday's game were just disgraceful. At the very least, he should not be starting because games like this are going to destroy his confidence and kill his career. I'm sure the Bucs won't realize that though and keep playing him until he's lost all hope.
What are your thoughts if it remains significantly weaker than forecast? So far looks like a unanimous OTS and I agree.

Quoting 534. tampabaymatt:



What are you seeing that the computer models and expert mets don't? Because, every model I can think of is showing this staying OTS.


Quoting 540. tampabaymatt:



The Bucs are an embarrassment. Jameis Winston had no business being the #1 overall pick for a variety of reasons, one of which is he's not that good of a QB. Any time FSU played a halfway decent team, he struggled. Some of the passes he made in yesterday's game were just disgraceful. At the very least, he should not be starting because games like this are going to destroy his confidence and kill his career. I'm sure the Bucs won't realize that though and keep playing him until he's lost all hope.
I love how my Dolphins were able to draft Tannehill over RG3. Could have been bad if it was the other way...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing minimal shower
activity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and this system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
generally northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

INVEST 93L

Shower activity has changed little in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves little. After a couple of days, a slow
west-northwestward motion toward Mexico is expected and land
interaction should limit development. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft originally scheduled to investigate the
system Monday afternoon has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
INVEST 94L

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this wave during the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


maybe invest 95L SOON
Quoting 541. HaoleboySurfEC:

What are your thoughts if it remains significantly weaker than forecast? So far looks like a unanimous OTS and I agree.


I just don't see 93L moving OTS. All models have been wrong so far. They all had 93L moving north hours ago. not to mention 93L has weakened, which will help 93L not be affected by the weakness to the north.
Quoting 537. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 93, 2015091318, , BEST, 0, 104N, 355W, 25, 1011, LO
AL, 93, 2015091400, , BEST, 0, 106N, 365W, 25, 1011, LO
AL, 93, 2015091406, , BEST, 0, 110N, 375W, 25, 1011, LO


verk weak
Quoting 539. Camerooski:

What are YOU seeing? Every model has been wrong so far. 93L was supposed to make that turn hours ago. It still hasn't. In fact it is actually weakening. This will help as it won't be so affected by the weakness to the north.... So don't tell me I'm wrong. I haven't been wrong yet about this one. I can guarantee that 93L wont move north.... :)


You can guarantee it? Maybe you're in the wrong business or field of study then. Instead of coming on this blog every day and rambling nonsense about how every storm will hit S FL, you can provide some reasons for your conclusions. I never said you were wrong, but I asked what you were seeing that led you to come to a different conclusion that the models, NHC, and mets.
Good Morning Folks; temps in the mid-50's this morning in North Florida and clear and cool in most of the SE and Eastern Seaboard in mid-September. Welcome to the start of an El Nino (wet and cool) Fall and Winter for the SE United States:




Quoting 542. Camerooski:

I love how my Dolphins were able to draft Tannehill over RG3. Could have been bad if it was the other way...


I'm a Dolphins fan as I grew up in Ft. Lauderdale. Don't get me started on them. They lost their chance at relevance by missing out on Andrew Luck. They started out something like 0-8 the year they could have drafted him and inexplicably won like 6 games in a row or something like that. They missed out on their only chance to get a franchise QB for the foreseeable future and didn't even make the playoffs that year. Florida NFL teams are a total joke.
Nino 3.4 up to 2.3C. Higher than any week in 1997 during September.

09SEP2015 22.5 2.0 27.4 2.6 29.0 2.3 29.7 1.0
Quoting 548. tampabaymatt:



I'm a Dolphins fan as I grew up in Ft. Lauderdale. Don't get me started on them. They lost their chance at relevance by missing out on Andrew Luck. They started out something like 0-8 the year they could have drafted him and inexplicably won like 6 games in a row or something like that. They missed out on their only chance to get a franchise QB for the foreseeable future and didn't even make the playoffs that year. Florida NFL teams are a total joke.


Dolphins are going to be a good team this year and many expect them to make a run in the playoffs.
look for the ch of 93L too start droping today its moving way too fast all so it will soon head in too higher shear if 93L wants too be come a TD it needs too slow down other wise it will soon run in too shear to me 93L nothing more like a open wave so ch of 93L be comeing some in are starting too lower






Quoting 551. Tazmanian:

look for the ch of 93L too start droping today its moving way too fast all so it will soon head in too higher shear if 93L wants too be come a TD it needs too slow down other wise it will soon run in too shear to me 93L nothing more like a open wave so ch of 93L be comeing some in are starting too lower







The shear actually isn't so bad right now in the Carib.
Quoting 549. StormTrackerScott:

Nino 3.4 up to 2.3C. Higher than any week in 1997 during September.

09SEP2015 22.5 2.0 27.4 2.6 29.0 2.3 29.7 1.0


you where a tad off scott you said it would come in at 2.4 but it came in at 2.3 you where all most right on Q with this one
Quoting 552. Camerooski:

The shear actually isn't so bad right now in the Carib.



your post is off topic too what i was talking about i said noting about the Carib
Quoting 553. Tazmanian:



you where a tad off scott you said it would come in at 2.4 but it came in at 2.3 you where all most right on Q with this one


I posted from Steve Gregory about the 2.4C. Still though a solid rise from the previous week.
if we all stop watching football there will be alot less people walking around with head injuries. not going to watch one game this yr. noticed joe b downgrading this yr el nino still going to be strong but not a godzilla one
Quoting 548. tampabaymatt:



I'm a Dolphins fan as I grew up in Ft. Lauderdale. Don't get me started on them. They lost their chance at relevance by missing out on Andrew Luck. They started out something like 0-8 the year they could have drafted him and inexplicably won like 6 games in a row or something like that. They missed out on their only chance to get a franchise QB for the foreseeable future and didn't even make the playoffs that year. Florida NFL teams are a total joke.
You can't call my Dolphins a joke. Especially since your a Bucs fan....
Quoting 546. tampabaymatt:



You can guarantee it? Maybe you're in the wrong business or field of study then. Instead of coming on this blog every day and rambling nonsense about how every storm will hit S FL, you can provide some reasons for your conclusions. I never said you were wrong, but I asked what you were seeing that led you to come to a different conclusion that the models, NHC, and mets.
You don't need evidence to have an opinion. This is a blog, there isn't a rule that says you have to have evidence per post. I'm not saying that 93L will turn into a Cat 5 and teleport to Miami in 5 hours, otherwise you would be right...
A 3 year El-Nino? Looks like it possibly as the CFSv2 has El-Nino continuing into July 2016. Hopefully the CFSv2 is wrong but this trend is interesting as values are staying around 1C for next Summer.

Quoting 562. SFLWeatherman:




NWS in Melbourne even mentions EX Grace. P31L should enter a more favorable environment this week. We might not get a named system from this but we should expect maybe an invest at some point.

93L wow lol! Wasn't expecting that :))
On the 0Z Euro by Day 10 P38L is expected to be entering the SE Gulf basically reinforcing the wet pattern over FL next week. WOW!



Euro Day 10
Quoting 553. Tazmanian:



you where a tad off scott you said it would come in at 2.4 but it came in at 2.3 you where all most right on Q with this one
Only trouble with your forecast is it's about to peak at 2.3, which is a lot lower than your Godzilla Super Nino. Look for a La Nina by next summer, and with a warm AMO, it might be a very interesting 2016 hurricane season. Sorry but no Godzilla Super Nino, but still a very strong one, which should make for a very interesting winter in the South, and Florida.
Quoting 564. CaribBoy:

93L wow lol! Wasn't expecting that :))

I notice it is still moving west. In fact, a little south of west. Only a couple of the GFS ensemble models call for a more westward location before making the northward turn.
Quoting 569. NativeSun:

Don't worry the Fins will make the playoffs this year, not so sure about the U or FSU.


I think you guys are a little optimistic. The AFC East should be a lot better this year and the Bills and Jets already got off to fast starts yesterday. The Dolphins will probably go 7-9 or 8-8. I hope you guys are right and I'm wrong though.
Quoting 559. weathermanwannabe:

I grew up in Miami during the Dolphin Dan Marino days; went to UM during the National Championship Days in the 1980's-Jimmy Johnson Era, and have lived in Tallahassee for the last 15 years (Wife is a Nole) and follow the FSU games. All of the my personal Florida teams (Fins and Hurricanes) have struggled the last several years and FSU currently has a very good coach.

Looking forward to the days, again, when all of our major Florida college teams dominate the championship hunt and when the Fins get back to being regular contenders for the playoffs...........................The good ole days.............
Here is an overview of the Atlantic the waves are still making it across the MDR and there is a frontal boundary stretching across the Gulf. Looks like the remnants of Grace is over the Turks and Caicos this morning. Will be interesting to see if it manages to make its way into the Gulf how upper level winds are like then.



On the topic of football: I grew up watching the Bucs in the 90s with head coach Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. Some of the players I remember of course was the kicker Martin Gramatica, QB Trent Dilfer, RB Warrick Dunn, FB Mike Alstott aka the A-Train, WR Bert Emannuel, (2000 NFC Championship game where the Bert Emmanuel rule was enforced) and Jacquez Green. On the defense: LB Hardy Nickerson and Derrick Brooks, DT Warren Sapp, CB Ronde Barber and Donnie Abraham, and S John Lynch the original Tampa 2 defense. As you say each teams have their era of dominance, the Bucs were pretty much from 1997-2003 and after the Superbowl the original team was dismantled, due to contracts expiring, and some players retiring, a lot of the players moved onto other teams as a shell of their former self, Lynch moved onto the Broncos and Sapp to the Raiders. Brooks and Barber retired as Bucs, with Barber being the last standing of the original. Nevertheless, I enjoyed every moment of those seasons as I could, because I know not all great things last, but one day the Bucs will rise up back to the top again, and before people start freaking out about the game yesterday, remember it's just one game, Winston's first NFL game, and did you know in Brett Favre's first NFL game his first pass he also threw a pick 6, and well I think we all knew how Favre's career went, also remember Peyton Manning struggled in his first season I believe throwing a record amount of interceptions. So we still have a long way to go this season and for the years to come, but I remain optimistic and patient about the Bucs future.
572. FOREX
Quoting 529. islander101010:

cmc is going to bananas someone tell the developer of this model its an el nino yr. gfs is interesting in that it does not take the upstream tw with 93 to the north instead keeps it moving wnw
The CMC is a garbage tropical model. Only decent for Winter storms so they say.
Quoting 567. NativeSun:

Only trouble with your forecast is it's about to peak at 2.3, which is a lot lower than your Godzilla Super Nino. Look for a La Nina by next summer, and with a warm AMO, it might be a very interesting 2016 hurricane season. Sorry but no Godzilla Super Nino, but still a very strong one, which should make for a very interesting winter in the South, and Florida.


well mr no in all EL Nino has not yet peaked and it wont peak in tell oct or nov so we could still see EL Nino peak out at 2.5 too 2.9 so we still got a little ways too go be for it peaks out so we still have a ch of super EL nino right now and with to day reading coming in at 2.3 we have now crossed in too vary strong EL nino from strong EL nino
Good morning boys and girls....a happy monday to each and everyone of you

Let's look at the latest CFSV2 graph shall we......i will take it that most know the dotted black line denotes the median.....on the left is the temperature in celsius above or below average...and at the bottom we see that the months are broken up in quarters....

now....if you trust this model throughout the entirety of its run...the only conclusion you can have is...that before july of 2016.....el nino will be no more....to say anything else....well....with only this model as guide....would be erroneous




Quoting 575. ricderr:

Good morning boys and girls....a happy monday to each and everyone of you

Let's look at the latest CFSV2 graph shall we......i will take it that most know the dotted lines denote the median.....on the left is the temperature in celsius above or below average...and at the bottom we see that the months are broken up in quarters....

now....if you trust this model throughout the entirety of its run...the only conclusion you can have is...that before july of 2016.....el nino will be no more....to say anything else....well....with only this model as guide....would be erroneous







If I’m reading this correctly, it’s showing that Nino 3.4 should be around 2.0C anomaly right now. Considering it’s at 2.3C, I have some doubts about the reliability of this forecast if it can’t even initialize based on actual data.
Quoting 575. ricderr:

Good morning boys and girls....a happy monday to each and everyone of you

Let's look at the latest CFSV2 graph shall we......i will take it that most know the dotted black line denotes the median.....on the left is the temperature in celsius above or below average...and at the bottom we see that the months are broken up in quarters....

now....if you trust this model throughout the entirety of its run...the only conclusion you can have is...that before july of 2016.....el nino will be no more....to say anything else....well....with only this model as guide....would be erroneous







The latest runs (BLUE) aren't falling as fast next Summer. I expect neutral next Summer but maybe not as fast of a decline as what was earlier depicted.
I am thinking that we have seen the end of the Atlantic Cape Verde season and a very tough going for any system trying to spin up in the Western Caribbean or Gulf over the next week based on current shear levels. Just my personal opinion but with the Fall El Nino off to an early start, I will be surprised if we get one more named storm between now and the end of the season.


Quoting 562. SFLWeatherman:


Is that a current Invest or ex showing development. These ex's this year remind me of some of my bad ones that just won't go away :)
It is not going to be a high ace season, but looks like it may be an above average named storm season. El Nino to the rescue!
Quoting 579. scott39:

Is that a current Invest or ex showing development. These ex's this year remind me of some of my bad ones that just won't go away :)
It shows up from nothing at 78 hours and is stationary at 84 hours. It doesn't appear to have any reason to be there. The NAM is not a tropical model and shouldn't be relied on for tropical systems.
Quoting 581. sar2401:

It shows up from nothing at 78 hours and is stationary at 84 hours. It doesn't appear to have any reason to be there. The NAM is not a tropical model and shouldn't be relied on for tropical systems.
Thanks Sar.

Even though it's 11 days out, the prospects are exciting for an early season wet snowfall for the front range including Denver. I'm sure this will change in the next run.
73F and a N breeze,

That is all.
i am very apprehensive about what the global models are doing with 93L. although this invest has an impressive circulation, it is not showing signs of the rapid organisation that was anticipated by these models. The syatem is very weak and i cannot foresee the disturbance taking this almost perpendicular track into the open north atlantic. My take is the system is too weak and will not be able to move towards the weakness in the ridge. 93L with continue to move with the low level flow towards the lesser antilles and at the same time try to organise and develop into a named system. i also foresee the same track to be taken by the disturbance off the African coast.
Quoting 585. stoormfury:

i am very apprehensive about what the global models are doing with 93L. although this invest has an impressive circulation, it is not showing signs of the rapid organisation that was anticipated by these models. The syatem is very weak and i cannot foresee the disturbance taking this almost perpendicular track into the open north atlantic. My take is the system is too weak and will not be able to move towards the weakness in the ridge. 93L with continue to move with the low level flow towards the lesser antilles and at the same time try to organise and develop into a named system. i also foresee the same track to be taken by the disturbance off the African coast.
I think 93L only has two possibilities. It's either so weak because the environment never gets better that it dissipates in the next two days., or, if it can get to be a strong tropical storm, it will feel the weakness and move north OTS. Of all the storms I've see this season, this one presents the least risk to the Antilles.
It appears that 93 L is going poof. Are conditions for this disturbance improving as argued? It is really better organized with time? I think NO. The TW just east of the Leewards is looking better, also, the TW just behind it. (in terms of convection)
Quoting 561. tampabaymatt:



Did you read what I wrote? Like in the first sentence when I wrote "I'm a Dolphins fan".
I'm a Brown fan.

Very little to say after that statement.

Never did make it down to the predicted 49 last night. We bottomed out at 52, which is still quite pleasant. With all the windows open, it's actually a bit chilly.
Quoting 583. Hazardousweather:


Even though it's 11 days out, the prospects are exciting for an early season wet snowfall for the front range including Denver. I'm sure this will change in the next run.

Would that pressure set up, if it were to materialize, bring Santa Ana winds to Southern California?
Quoting 585. stoormfury:

i am very apprehensive about what the global models are doing with 93L. although this invest has an impressive circulation, it is not showing signs of the rapid organisation that was anticipated by these models. The syatem is very weak and i cannot foresee the disturbance taking this almost perpendicular track into the open north atlantic. My take is the system is too weak and will not be able to move towards the weakness in the ridge. 93L with continue to move with the low level flow towards the lesser antilles and at the same time try to organise and develop into a named system. i also foresee the same track to be taken by the disturbance off the African coast.


Caribboy's wishcaster mode ON.

YES, I want to see this happening :))
591. JRRP
10.4n 40w
Quoting 586. sar2401:

I think 93L only has two possibilities. It's either so weak because the environment never gets better that is dissipates in the next two days., or, if it can get to be a strong tropical storm, it will feel the weakness and move north OTS. Of all the storms I've see this season, this one presents the least risk to the Antilles.


No, don't say this. We still hope for something :)
Quoting 579. scott39:

Is that a current Invest or ex showing development. These ex's this year remind me of some of my bad ones that just won't go away :)
This is x-grace redeveloping in the eastern gulf.
Quoting 558. Camerooski:

You don't need evidence to have an opinion. This is a blog, there isn't a rule that says you have to have evidence per post. I'm not saying that 93L will turn into a Cat 5 and teleport to Miami in 5 hours, otherwise you would be right...
You have to understand some opinions are worth more than others though. If you went to the airport every day announced that it was your opinion a 747 couldn't fly, you'd probably be asked to leave the airport. It's an opinion, but one not grounded in reality.
Quoting 592. CaribBoy:



No, don't say this. We still hope for something :)
Sorry. I could lie and say it was headed right at you but then you'd be mad anyway. I'd rather have you get it out up front. :-0
Quoting 595. tampabaymatt:



Well, the Indians are only a few games out from a wild card spot, so there's something to kind of hope for :)

It was about 72 degrees this morning in NW Tampa with a dewpoint in the low 70s. It felt great, as short lived as it will be. PWATs in excess of 2 inches are supposed to move in starting tomorrow.



Yes, and the Indians will blow it in the playoffs, as usual. The Browns were absolutely crushed by the Jets, not exactly the NFL's best team. At least the Browns don't have the worst odds for reaching the Super Bowl though. They are only a 300-1 underdog. The biggest underdog goes to another Florida team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, at a whopping 500-1.
Quoting 593. victoria780:

This is x-grace redeveloping in the eastern gulf.
No, it's not. There are no more remnants of the remnants of ex-Grace. What was left of it, and it wasn't much, merged with a trough moving SE out of Florida. It's not getting to the eastern Gulf.
Please remember TROTR and Stay on topic. Thank you all!
NoFLo WeCo Obs.....Burr... 60f this morning taking the kiddo's to school.. Not ready for Fall temps in the morning yet -though loving the cooler evenings!
Quoting 589. ACSeattle:


Would that pressure set up, if it were to materialize, bring Santa Ana winds to Southern California?
Probably not. The lows are too far inland.
602. 7544
what use to be grace becomes a low in the bahamas and as it crosses fl with alot of rain then into the gulf ?

93l stays weak and follows used to be grace and gives more rain to fl net week ?
603. FOREX
Quoting 602. 7544:

what use to be grace becomes a low in the bahamas and as it crosses fl with alot of rain then into the gulf ?

93l stays weak and follows used to be grace and gives more rain to fl net week ?
I think only one very unreliable model is showing that.
Just a quick note from the other side of the Atlantic. Although the El Nino is helping to divert wind belts and the jet stream and push storm systems away from the Gulf and the US, which is good news for those living on that side of the ocean, it also causes storms to recurve sooner and therefore pushes stronger storms towards the European seaboard. With that in mind, we are today, along the south coast of England, having to cope with some strong winds busting up the English Channel, coupled with high tides (we are at the top of a spring series). We are going to get more of the same during the next two months, and I fear some of it isn't going to be very pretty. In case this is underestimated, one of the worst storms in 'recent' history was hurricane Debbie, in September, 1961, which started as a typical Cape Verde storm and ended up wrecking a large part of the housing in Northern Ireland and killing 13. Let's hope my fears are unjustified this Autumn; watch this space ...
Quoting 602. 7544:

what use to be grace becomes a low in the bahamas and as it crosses fl with alot of rain then into the gulf ?

93l stays weak and follows used to be grace and gives more rain to fl net week ?
No, Grace is dead. It's not going to become a low in the Bahamas and cross Florida into the Gulf. The rain in the Gulf will be coming from a trough that's anchored by a low near 94L.

EDIT: 93L never, ever gets into the Gulf. I don't know what models you're looking at but you need to get new ones.


invest 94L looking better then invest 93L


i am starting to think the *80% is to high right now maybe down to 60% at 2pm
Quoting 536. Skyepony:

..he mentioned it well after I did:P

GEOS-5 is still showing the merge and rain for Thursday. Something new here this morning is a split with one weak low going west in the gulf.


The other weak low is shown taking more the path I've been discussing but a hair to the east, up the coast. First run of this scenario so it will be interesting if we get a troff split. With the shear this year has had in that area, wouldn't surprise.. Almost looked like that was ex-Grace going west & the low from the troff going NE..



What do the three major models plus the HWRF show for this time frame?
93L will probably continue to struggle for another day or so. If it gets out of this phase, then it'll probably be really small like Danny once it tightens up.
614. MahFL
Orange Park here in NE FL got down to 64F this am.
Low 60s this morning like fall, and rain offshore already heading for shore, air mass turning quickly today

Quoting 605. sar2401:

No, Grace is dead. It's not going to become a low in the Bahamas and cross Florida into the Gulf. The rain in the Gulf will be coming from a trough that's anchored by a low near 94L.

EDIT: 93L never, ever gets into the Gulf. I don't know what models you're looking at but you need to get new ones.
Didn't Erika teach you not too look at models? If I told you that Erika would never go north of PR, you would call me crazy because the models never said that. So don't trust the models, they haven't been correct yet about 93L, and they were wayyy off with Erika...
Remember that Danny sputtered before intesifying? I'm not saying that's going to happen with 93L, but I think its a possibility. However, I don't think that it has a chance at major hurricane status.
Maybe not even hurricane status.
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 131615
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SUN 13 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-110

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 14/1800Z A. 15/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 14/1500Z C. 15/0845Z
D. 22.0N 96.5W D. 22.5N 97.0W
E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2130Z E. 15/1115Z TO 15/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM
We actually just got some rain here. Barely enough to get the ground wet, but we weren't supposed to get anything until this afternoon/overnight tonight, so I'll take it.
94L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop

94L GOM Dvorak Loop

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
259 am CDT Monday Sep 14 2015

Discussion...

after a pleasantly cool start to the day once again...today will
be another nice day with temperatures and humidity levels
continuing to run below normal along with ample sunshine. Highs
are generally expected to top out in the middle 80s...so a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. This moderating trend in
temperatures will continue as the week progresses along with
increasing humidity with low level easterly flow becoming established
as an expansive surface high settles along the eastern Seaboard.
Temperatures will average near climatological values during the
last half of the week and into the weekend. Upper level ridging
will replace the departing upper trough over the eastern U.S.
Early in the period. This ridge will then shift southwestward
late in the week and become centered over Texas...northern Mexico
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rain chances will return to most
of the area on Tuesday and continue through much of the remainder
of the forecast period as deeper moisture works back into the
area. However...the best chances for convection will be over the
coastal waters and points east of the forecast area as a weak middle
level disturbance moves northeast across the western..central and
northern Gulf. Rain chances during this period will only be in the
slight chance to lower end chance categories over land. 11

&&
94L looks like a player, what will she reveal? an Ace or King

Actually felt fall in the air here in wilmington nc this morning, and it was downright chilly before dawn. When it starts getting this chilly its too late for tropical systems here
Quoting 573. Tazmanian:



well mr no in all EL Nino has not yet peaked and it wont peak in tell oct or nov so we could still see EL Nino peak out at 2.5 too 2.9 so we still got a little ways too go be for it peaks out so we still have a ch of super EL nino right now and with to day reading coming in at 2.3 we have now crossed in too vary strong EL nino from strong EL nino
Sorry Taz, can't quite figure out your love of the Nino, but this will peak come Nov./Dec. as a very strong Nino, 2.3 to 2.5, which is a very strong Nino, but not a Super Godilla Nino like 2 bloggers on here have been predicting. Stop using only the warm biased model you like so much, and look at some of the other models that are coming together on a Strong Nino.
Quoting 574. Tazmanian:





this is not a football blog its a weather blog
Give it a break.
Quoting 627. RitaEvac:

94L looks like a player, what will she reveal? an Ace or King




More like a fart in the wind
Quoting 627. RitaEvac:

94L looks like a player, what will she reveal? an Ace or King




A Cayman threater, fo sho'
Quoting 626. Patrap:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
259 am CDT Monday Sep 14 2015

Discussion...

after a pleasantly cool start to the day once again...today will
be another nice day with temperatures and humidity levels
continuing to run below normal along with ample sunshine. Highs
are generally expected to top out in the middle 80s...so a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. This moderating trend in
temperatures will continue as the week progresses along with
increasing humidity with low level easterly flow becoming established
as an expansive surface high settles along the eastern Seaboard.
Temperatures will average near climatological values during the
last half of the week and into the weekend. Upper level ridging
will replace the departing upper trough over the eastern U.S.
Early in the period. This ridge will then shift southwestward
late in the week and become centered over Texas...northern Mexico
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rain chances will return to most
of the area on Tuesday and continue through much of the remainder
of the forecast period as deeper moisture works back into the
area. However...the best chances for convection will be over the
coastal waters and points east of the forecast area as a weak middle
level disturbance moves northeast across the western..central and
northern Gulf. Rain chances during this period will only be in the
slight chance to lower end chance categories over land. 11

&&

Greetings Pat ..Low in the mid 40's this morning. Sun is out with some breeze. Perfect weather..:)
Salutations to ya..

Indeed, jus gaw jus here.
Quoting 475. sar2401:

That seems amazingly low. My forecast low is 51. I have calm north winds so I guess it could happen, but it's still 58 with a dewpoint of 56. You normally want to see a dewpoint depression a lot closer to the forecast low if it's going to happen. I have opened up all the windows, and the A/C is off for the first time since May. All the cats are up in the windows trying to figure out what the heck is going on. :-)


Really enjoying the coolness in DC also. Dogs are as well.


Quoting 627. RitaEvac:

94L looks like a player, what will she reveal? an Ace or King


Maybe a joker? lol Sorry it was there. ; )


fall coming soon!! its was 55F here this morning in east haven,conn!!

Sheesh, talk about going poof. Wind shear wasn't that bad? SSTS warm..i've seen more dry air.
hmmm
Quoting 639. Starhopper:


Sheesh, talk about going poof. Wind shear wasn't that bad? SSTS warm..i've seen more dry air.
hmmm
Dmin
Quoting 628. K8eCane:

Actually felt fall in the air here in wilmington nc this morning, and it was downright chilly before dawn. When it starts getting this chilly its too late for tropical systems here


the fall air is short lived..and we have had plenty of TS systems affect us well into October..
NHC 95L INVEST 20150914 1200 083N 0185W
Might be drizzling. 93L

94L
644. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
D$T:: a while ago early this AM was busy eating some chips...
AOI:: GoMx
What are the colour codes?
image host
Bluish is as if you saw low clouds at nite, ie visfog imagery you see in several sat sites.
White are the infrared Id'd clouds.
Greenish (sorry the green is too light for some to see) represent the unused water vapour, in theory this means a cloud mass with more green around it can pull in more hydro fuel...specially if its over warmer waters.
The Red rings i prefer than the fully coloured cloud tops as i use what i call "rainbow rings" to loop around certain cloud heights .
In this manner the colour does not overwhelm the details of the billowing clouds as in the rainbow imagery as sar2401 was pointing out.

(created from 4 sat imagery types), If i wanted to take the time you'd see pink rings, lite red, till the highest deep red rings around cloud tops (you are seeing the medium red) and as they grew the ring expands IN THE DIRECTION they are growing and if the cloud collapse the colour ring shows that to, important when reading outflow. But i no longer teach my theories or creations and am now a couch potato. i.e. too lazy to care...ouch... >carrrunch< why lookie here i was actually siting on a potato (chip)...too salty. Quick someone get grothar the barf bag...and he's seen everything from when tie began (he wound the watch...made it?!)
Quoting 643. Starhopper:


Might be drizzling. 93L
Beyond me that they have that naked swirl at 80%, and moving NW; .... maybe the expect and explosion of convection tonight,, and a monster trough to pull such a weak system NW,,
Quoting 645. HuracanTaino:

Beyond me that they have that swirl at 80%, and moving NW; .... maybe the expect and explosion of convection tonight,, and a monster trough to pull such a weak system NW,,

Yeah huh. Maybe later we'll see what happens. Small rain storm for now. Naked swirl yes.
Quoting 636. georgevandenberghe:



Really enjoying the coolness in DC also. Dogs are as well.



Made it to 52, so pretty close to forecast. Warming up a bit more than forecast though as winds have started to swing around to the ESE. Doesn't mean anything to my sensible weather other than a slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday, and that mostly in the north state. I do believe our 100 degree temperatures, except for one more Indian Summer spate, have come to an end however. It has been a long four months.
The low in the gulf may stall off of Florida..That would mean some flooding.

Quoting 631. Tazmanian:




Don't tell me what I can or can not used am done with you you are now ignored
By Taz, good to know you and hope your weather is always full of sunshine.
Quoting 645. HuracanTaino:

Beyond me that they have that naked swirl at 80%, and moving NW; .... maybe the expect and explosion of convection tonight,, and a monster trough to pull such a weak system NW,,
As I've said, it either gets it act together or it's going to dissipate. The conditions ahead don't look bad. The question now is will 93L be able to make it there in time.
651. MahFL
Quoting 619. Patrap:

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 131615
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SUN 13 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY ...
WJM



"The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft originally scheduled to investigate the
system Monday afternoon has been canceled."
Quoting 628. K8eCane:

Actually felt fall in the air here in wilmington nc this morning, and it was downright chilly before dawn. When it starts getting this chilly its too late for tropical systems here



Hazel came when it was chilly
Quoting 640. Gearsts:

Dmin
DMin generally doesn't create an open swirl. With weak systems like this, they tend to prosper in DMin and not do as well with DMax, since they are still mostly diurnal. If this continues, it's not a good sign for 94L, and we may see another early dissipation.
95L IS HERE
Quoting 628. K8eCane:

Actually felt fall in the air here in wilmington nc this morning, and it was downright chilly before dawn. When it starts getting this chilly its too late for tropical systems here
Unfortunately, the first cool air of the season gets replaced pretty rapidly by more warm, humid air, so it's not likely the TC threat has ended. If this was the middle of October, I'd probably agree with you.

95L IS HERE



yep.......i agree with those who said it was gonna be slow a week ago....LOL
Gulf..

95L
Someone going to have to send an "I'm sorry" card to the NAM..may not be a tropical model but its great at picking up atmospheric conditions..

as well the GOES 5 model for picking it up as well..so much for those Global models..

12z GFS
660. JLPR2
93L... (Like Nelson from the Simpsons) Haw haw! XD

Jeez it took a beating, even the vorticity is weakening, we should see the 48hrs % drop a bit at 2pm since development is clearly not imminent and if it happens, it will take awhile.


In other news shiny and new car smell new 95L is looking good.


And 94L might beat them all to a name
Quoting 617. Camerooski:

Didn't Erika teach you not too look at models? If I told you that Erika would never go north of PR, you would call me crazy because the models never said that. So don't trust the models, they haven't been correct yet about 93L, and they were wayyy off with Erika...
The models for both Erika and Grace were not in close agreement. There was not a large weakness in the ridge as far out as there is now. No storm this season has had models in this tight of an agreement. Until and unless those models start to diverge, I have no reason not have confidence in the models, regardless of model performance for different storms in different locations. At this point, 94L is in jeopardy of not surviving at all. After you've been at this for a while, you're going to find you almost never beat the models. Opinions about storm movement without evidence don't trump models.
What's funny is the Euro and GFS both predicted the formation of a low in the Western GOM several days ago, but then the models dropped the idea just about the time a low actually formed.

R click/view image for larger.
Quoting 611. Patrap:




So, this storm is supposed to be a non-event?
That's a relief,....except for that lone model indicating a more northerly track.
Quoting 661. sar2401:

The models for both Erika and Grace were not in close agreement. There was not a large weakness in the ridge as far out as there is now. No storm this season has had models in this tight of an agreement. Until and unless those models start to diverge, I have no reason not have confidence in the models, regardless of model performance for different storms in different locations. At this point, 94L is in jeopardy of not surviving at all. After you've been at this for a while, you're going to find you almost never beat the models. Opinions about storm movement without evidence don't trump models.

lol
Quoting 662. Sfloridacat5:

What's funny is the Euro and GFS both predicted the formation of a low in the Western GOM several days ago, but then the models dropped the idea just about the time a low actually formed.



That's because the science is so right by now that we can always depend on the forecast, right? ;-)
bb later all. Good info. Ty.
Quoting 620. Patrap:





She seems to be getting comfy right where she is.
Is that my imagination?
Quoting 657. ricderr:


95L IS HERE



yep.......i agree with those who said it was gonna be slow a week ago....LOL


I thought back in June that it was said the Atlantic was shut down this year because of El Niño? The Caribbean is certainly hostile.
Quoting 648. hydrus:

The low in the gulf may stall off of Florida..That would mean some flooding.




Looking like a damp week across FL.
Quoting 666. WalkingInTheSun:



That's because the science is so right by now that we can always depend on the forecast, right? ;-)


We're lucky the forecasts don't come true. The Euro was predicting a strong system in the GOM. Or will the old forecast actually come true?
That's what makes it interesting. No one person or any model can accurately predict the weather with certainty.
Quoting 648. hydrus:

The low in the gulf may stall off of Florida..That would mean some flooding.




Which low? 94L? If so, I thought that was supposed to go into Mexico. Did something change?

Or, is the low supposed to be from the remnants of Grace? Whatever those are at this point.
95L Classic low rider
Looks to me like we are getting close to a T.D. in the western GOM.
Link
Quoting 668. WalkingInTheSun:




She seems to be getting comfy right where she is.
Is that my imagination?



About 200 miles south of the hostile shear, the CLP5 run is what climatologically it would do, move that direction
Quoting 644. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA
D$T:: a while ago early this AM was busy eating some chips...
AOI:: GoMx
What are the colour codes?
image host
Bluish is as if you saw low clouds at nite, ie visfog imagery you see in several sat sites.
White are the infrared Id'd clouds.
Greenish (sorry the green is too light for some to see) represent the unused water vapour, in theory this means a cloud mass with more green around it can pull in more hydro fuel...specially if its over warmer waters.
The Red rings i prefer than the fully coloured cloud tops as i use what i call "rainbow rings" to loop around certain cloud heights .
In this manner the colour does not overwhelm the details of the billowing clouds as in the rainbow imagery as sar2401 was pointing out.

(created from 4 sat imagery types), If i wanted to take the time you'd see pink rings, lite red, till the highest deep red rings around cloud tops (you are seeing the medium red) and as they grew the ring expands IN THE DIRECTION they are growing and if the cloud collapse the colour ring shows that to, important when reading outflow. But i no longer teach my theories or creations and am now a couch potato. i.e. too lazy to care...ouch... >carrrunch< why lookie here i was actually siting on a potato (chip)...too salty. Quick someone get grothar the barf bag...and he's seen everything from when tie began (he wound the watch...made it?!)
I like that view, Vis. It emphasises the clouds that actually have precipitation while not showing the all the peripheral clouds at the same detail. It also make it easy to see storms that have water vapor in the area they could use compared to those that don't. The outflow, fog and the red ring are all good ideas. I assume you've shown this to NOAA and gotten the the usual "Don't bother us, boy, we're busy".
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 675. RitaEvac:



About 200 miles south of the hostile shear, the CLP5 run is what climatologically it would do, move that direction
Using the CLIPPER would make life so much easier. :-)
Quoting 653. sar2401:

DMin generally doesn't create an open swirl. With weak systems like this, they tend to prosper in DMin and not do as well with DMax, since they are still mostly diurnal. If this continues, it's not a good sign for 94L, and we may see another early dissipation.
I think you got a weak system a Dmin all wrong.
Quoting 664. WalkingInTheSun:



So, this storm is supposed to be a non-event?
That's a relief,....except for that lone model indicating a more northerly track.
People along the gulf coast should watch this. If shear were to let up, a significant storm could form quickly...
Quoting 652. will45:




Hazel came when it was chilly



I stand corrected. Yall are right