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Only a Few Minor Threat Areas in the Tropical Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters 2:43 PM GMT on September 12, 2015

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday was a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands on Saturday morning, and was moving west to west-northwestwards across the Atlantic at about 15 mph. Though the wave does not yet have much spin or heavy thunderstorm activity, conditions are favorable for development, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures at 28°C (83°F), and only a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer to the north of the disturbance. One of our three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, forecasted in its 00Z Saturday run that the wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Monday. Many of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble and 50 members of the European ensemble forecast predicted development by Wednesday, though the operational high-resolution versions of these models were lukewarm in their support of development. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 50%, respectively. It appears likely that this wave will curve to the north well before it can affect the Lesser Antilles Islands. The next name on the 2015 Atlantic list is "Ida".


Figure 1. MODIS image of the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde islands from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at approximately 8 am EDT Saturday, September 12, 2015. The Cape Verde islands are visible at the upper right. Image credit: NASA.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche in association with a cold front that pushed south of Texas and has stalled over Mexico and its offshore waters. This disturbance is bringing heavy rains to the coast of Mexico, but none of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone development are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Gulf over the next five days, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The Mexican Weather Service is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 4" may affect portions of Mexico from this disturbance.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
NHC is mentioning two other areas of interest in their Tropical Weather Outlook, neither of which are a threat to become tropical cyclones that will fact land. The remains of Tropical Storm Grace are bringing a few showers to Puerto Rico and surrounding islands, but high wind shear will discourage any development. An area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic about about 1000 miles southwest of the Azores, far from any land areas, is being given 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update on the tropics and on the U.S. "Very Active Early Fall Pattern" setting up in his Friday afternoon post.

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
thanks for the post doc
Goodness, will the rain ever stop pounding Dominica? We lose our water supply every night from heavy rains and though they fix it, the rain just keeps coming and coming.
No mention of FL when the disturbance Doc speaks of is predicted to effect FL all next week not Mexico. The rains in Mexico now are as a result of a cold front.

Really Doc. 2" of rain is all that's forecast for northern Mexico.

Thank you Dr. Masters, it looks like Global Tropics have quieted down for the time being. Have a good weekend.

This is EX Grace in the Eastern Gulf late next week. Could be an area to watch however wind shear may be a problem.

Good update, Dr. Masters. For being the peak of the season, things are pretty slow. The remnants of Grace are being efficiently killed off by the Caribbean shear and trade winds we've seen all season. The African wave may develop but even that looks a little doubtful right now. The area of disturbed weather south of the Azores looks even more doubtful for development. The low that some models were trying to take into the Gulf off Texas now appears to be the area of disturbed weather off Mexico. It looks to be firmly connected to a low in central Mexico and has a near zero chance of getting north of the Mexican coast as the front pushes south. Not a lot of tropical excitement for the fans here but, compared to 2004-2005, that's fine with me.

P.S. Happy Birthday as well!
Could be flooding issues in FL next week as there is no where for all this rain to go the next 10 days. Euro is really showing a very wet signal across FL thru next weekend.
Somewhat unseasonable southward push of northern Canadian air thanks in part to energy from Pacific hurricane Ignacio whose remnants came in via British Columbia. Linda's lower level swirl is being tapped by a midlevel circulation due west of San Francisco. This AM in the Bay Area, cloudier than yesterday morning with radar returns offshore. Also high level smoke evident starting last evening in the upper flow from big fires in the Sierra foothills.
Quoting 3. Xandtar:

Goodness, will the rain ever stop pounding Dominica? We lose our water supply every night from heavy rains and though they fix it, the rain just keeps coming and coming.

At least on radar, it looks like the shower activity is starting to diminish. There are more showers north of Barbados, but those are also starting to diminish as the remnants of Grace continue to fall apart. After today, it doesn't look like anything organized is heading your way for at least the next five days.

rainfall amounts, water temps, wildlife sightings, fish report, and farm activities around the suwannee river delta, on my marsHen wunderblog, north florida - wild florida. it's been rainy! with a lot of reptiles moving around. watch for snakes! really!
long time i have not seen the ITCZ looking so active. most persons expect tropical activity to come from the cape verde tropical waves at this time of year. there are times that development can come from perturbations from an active ITCZ
Is the rainy set up as STScott due to El Niño, or a result of normal weak cool fronts beginning the Fall season?
Quoting 9. BayFog:

Somewhat unseasonable southward push of northern Canadian air thanks in part to energy from Pacific hurricane Ignacio whose remnants came in via British Columbia. Linda's lower level swirl is being tapped by a midlevel circulation due west of San Francisco. This AM in the Bay Area, cloudier than yesterday morning with radar returns offshore. Also high level smoke evident starting last evening in the upper flow from big fires in the Sierra foothills.
Nice area of disturbed weather offshore now. Unfortunately, it's beginning to lose its tap into the deep moisture present in central Mexico. The cold air interaction may keep it going for a while but its long term survival doesn't look good. You might get a passing thunderstorm, but that looks like about it. At least the ridge is going to knock down the heat and return some normal temperatures again. The cooler air and higher humidity should also help the firefighters. At least the smoke doesn't look too dense in the Bay Area. I remember a few times when we were shrouded in smoke for days on end from big fires in the mountains.

Check these out, a tropical low over Botswana from January 2010.




The contrast with the Namib desert to the left is pretty amazing.
Quoting 8. StormTrackerScott:

Could be flooding issues in FL next week as there is no where for all this rain to go the next 10 days. Euro is really showing a very wet signal across FL thru next weekend.

We've had around 0.8" at my location so far this month, so "all this rain" must be elsewhere. I am sure the pattern will be much wetter over the next week though. Today is not looking too impressive so far. I just see decaying showers moving in around the Tampa area and a weak looking line of storms way to the west in Gulf. Is it this line that will justify our 80% chance of rain for today when it gets here many hours from now?

I count five lobes in the circumpolar flow, which looks to be picking up steam as Fall approaches. Looking for a strong southerly branch of the jet to develop over the Pacific in this El Nino year.
Quoting 13. NSB207:

Is the rainy set up as STScott due to El Niño, or a result of normal weak cool fronts beginning the Fall season?
Mostly from a cold front that's moving south now, but there's also a broad trough all the way from Mexico into the entire Gulf that will interact with the front. That's what will set off the thunderstorms today, although the storms so far coming in off the Gulf have been dissipating pretty quickly. The front is going to stall over central Florida for the next five days. What happens to the trough and where it's located will have a big effect on the overall rain totals. Any heavy rain will come in the form of isolated thunderstorms so, if you're not under one, you will remain mostly dry. This is not a setup I'd expect to see that would bring general rains. As to El Nino, I really don't know. The front is unusually strong and unusually far south for mid-September. This has happened before, so it's not some unprecedented event, but I think any El Nino effect is pretty speculative right now.
Quoting 3. Xandtar:

Goodness, will the rain ever stop pounding Dominica? We lose our water supply every night from heavy rains and though they fix it, the rain just keeps coming and coming.


Send the rain to St Martin - St Barth's and Anguilla, WE NEED RAIN !
Quoting 16. HurrMichaelOrl:


We've had around 0.8" at my location so far this month, so "all this rain" must be elsewhere. I am sure the pattern will be much wetter over the next week though. Today is not looking too impressive so far. I just see decaying showers moving in around the Tampa area and a weak looking line of storms way to the west in Gulf. Is it this line that will justify our 80% chance of rain for today when it gets here many hours from now?
As usual with convective rain, some people end up flooded and others get very little or nothing. Go to the WPC site and run the loop of predicted areas of rain for the next three days. You have to slow it down to really see each six hour period, and set it show only areas with 0.75" or greater precipitation. You'll see that the only period where that might happen is in the next 12 hours, mostly in the Big Bend over the Jacksonville. After that, there really aren't any areas of heavy rain. By this time tomorrow, there are no areas of rain greater than 0.75" in six hours. There will still be showers, and one can always produce a lot of rain in a short period of time, but this is not a general flooding situation in central Florida.



...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS
3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT SE PORTION INCREASING TO
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT SE PORTION 25 TO 35 KT...BECOMING
W 15 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN NIGHT...W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
Far West Gulf disturbance going to be moving East and North East eventually right? Should ride under the strong upper level Westerly winds to the North and deal with moderate to high shear. It will be shear from the West to East in the same direction this disturbance is going. Results should be different from Caribbean shear game over affect where systems slammed into shear going in the opposite direction and the effect was dramatic. Getting an X any time soon or am I reading this all wrong?
Quoting 22. Grothar:




Messiest I've seen the Gulf all season long.
12Z GFS 2 FISHES
Quoting 17. BayFog:


I count five lobes in the circumpolar flow, which looks to be picking up steam as Fall approaches. Looking for a strong southerly branch of the jet to develop over the Pacific in this El Nino year.
I'm sure that will happen. Were you in the Bay Area in 1982? That's the last time we got that southern jet aimed right at us. I spent most of January either working floods and landslides in my county or going mutual aid to Marin County. Then we had February of 1986, just a moderate El Nino year. The fire hose got turned on again, and the Russian River rose to a record height of 49.2 feet, flooding every town along the river and leading to three days of "I'm going to die" excitement for me. Then we had the next strong El Nino year of 1997, when there was general flooding in the entire north state, and this time it was over to the Sacramento area, with crumbling levees and towns like Olivehurst underwater. We had a bunch of smaller floods and landslides from weaker El Ninos between 1982 and 1998 as well. Yeah, that southern jet is coming. It will end the drought, just as it did in 1982. At least this time I won't be suffering from wetsuit rash.
Quoting 28. GeoffreyWPB:



Messiest I've seen the Gulf all season long.


Don't let the colors fool you. It is only light clouds and a slight breeze.
Quoting 4. StormTrackerScott:

No mention of FL when the disturbance Doc speaks of is predicted to effect FL all next week not Mexico. The rains in Mexico now are as a result of a cold front.

Really Doc. 2" of rain is all that's forecast for northern Mexico.




That will be the upcoming story, just in Mexico now dropping heavy rain, so sure that's why Dr. Masters went with it. But, as this disturbance moves East, Florida rainfall and maybe even development will have to be monitored. Think those rain projections may be very low as a real system may develop out of this. No model support currently.
Quoting 27. DeepSeaRising:

Far West Gulf disturbance going to be moving East and North East eventually right? Should ride under the strong upper level Westerly winds to the North and deal with moderate to high shear. It will be shear from the West to East in the same direction this disturbance is going. Results should be different from Caribbean shear game over affect where systems slammed into shear going in the opposite direction and the effect was dramatic. Getting an X any time soon or am I reading this all wrong?
You're reading it wrong. The disturbance is going to be in Gulf off Mexico. It will remain there until it turns inland over Mexico and dissipates. It's not going east, and probably won't go much further north than it is now. The whole trough is tied to a low over central Mexico. Until that low is pushed further south by high pressure, the trough should maintain itself along the front which will stall somewhere near central Florida. This disturbance is what some models had in the northern Gulf earlier this week. As usual this year, most of the models were wrong, the CMC being spectacularly wrong. Only the ECMWF had this as either a disturbance or weak low off Mexico and not advancing any further than Mexico. This will be a rain producer for Mexico and for north and central Florida. Even with all the moisture available in the Gulf, there's no mechanism I can see that's going to produce a tropical cyclone outside Mexico.
Quoting 24. win1gamegiantsplease:



...GALE WARNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS
3 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT SE PORTION INCREASING TO
25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT SE PORTION 25 TO 35 KT...BECOMING
W 15 TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN NIGHT...W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
Bad day for offshore fishing. This massive trough is parked right over you, and the land-sea interaction is what's causing the gales. This is an amazingly huge trough, stretching all the way from North Carolina to central Mexico. Unfortunately for me, everything will be happening to the south, closer to the coast, so no rain for me out of it.
Quoting 34. sar2401:

Bad day for offshore fishing. This massive trough is parked right over you, and the land-sea interaction is what's causing the gales. This is an amazingly huge trough, stretching all the way from North Carolina to central Mexico. Unfortunately for me, everything will be happening to the south, closer to the coast, so no rain for me out of it.


Having a little trouble identifying a trough, sar? Not sure where "North Carolina to central Mexico." comes from. How about "Canada to the Gulf Coast"?

89 and very unstable with cold temps aloft. Convection is about to fire fast ahead of this squall line.

Quoting 32. DeepSeaRising:



That will be the upcoming story, just in Mexico now dropping heavy rain, so sure that's why Dr. Masters went with it. But, as this disturbance moves East, Florida rainfall and maybe even development will have to be monitored. Think those rain projections may be very low as a real system may develop out of this. No model support currently.


Yeah might see a severe weather watch for C FL as temps are now nearing 90. Very unusual to have this much energy overhead in mid September.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1255 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FLZ036-121730-
ALACHUA FL-
1255 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM EDT...

AT 1255 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ARCHER...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRONSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...ALACHUA...HIGH SPRINGS...ARCHER...GAINESVILLE
AIRPORT...UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA...NEWBERRY AND LA CROSSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2954 8255 2954 8265 2988 8254 2983 8219
2948 8234 2948 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 225DEG 18KT 2950 8253

$$

It's cooled down noticeably here in Jacksonville today, only 79 at my location right now and getting cloudy. Looks like there may be some good storms tracking this way later.
Quoting 40. Stoopid1:

It's cooled down noticeably here in Jacksonville today, only 79 at my location right now and getting cloudy. Looks like there may be some good storms tracking this way later.


79 in Orange Park too. A severe storm is located near Gainesville heading NE.
Just rained "buckets"< in Chiefland when that line came through......just a nice soaking rain right now
Quoting 36. beell:



Having a little trouble identifying a trough, sar? Not sure where "North Carolina to central Mexico." comes from. How about "Canada to the Gulf Coast"?




He says parked over us, I think he means stationary

Some models have a Gulf disturbance moving east. I am shocked.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC001-121730-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0312.150912T1704Z-150912T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 104 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCHER...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...ALACHUA...ARCHER...UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA...
GAINESVILLE AIRPORT AND LA CROSSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR
YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHO WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE.

&&
Quoting 43. win1gamegiantsplease:



He says parked over us, I think he means stationary




Maybe he meant the surface boundary/front. The trough is progressive-not stationary. Sometimes I get a little too caught up in the meaning of words.
;-)
A little bit of spin offshore Brownsville :

Greetings, all.
I have not seen the ITCZ this moist in many moons. Maybe meaningful miasmic moisture means many more months of minimal mayhem ?
Mmmmm ??
" SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... "

I am in NE Clay County, so a bit to my west right now.
51. JRRP
Quoting 49. pottery:

Greetings, all.
I have not seen the ITCZ this moist in many moons. Maybe meaningful miasmic moisture means many more months of minimal mayhem ?
Mmmmm ??


Most of the MDR is indeed pretty moist right now :


Quoting 13. NSB207:

Is the rainy set up as STScott due to El Nino, or a result of normal weak cool fronts beginning the Fall season?

It's really hard to not blame about any hard, heavy rain that happens right now atleast partially on El Nino. It's been said to "seed the atmosphere for rain", but it could also be said that as the ocean releases the heat to the atmosphere, it warms it to hold more water. Either way or both, El Nino years tend to have more precipitation falling from the sky globally, and when it rains it is more likely to pour.

I've been moving dirt part of the morning. We had another 4" rain event on Monday & more since. Looks like excess is coming. I see people all over this area struggling to keep water out of their barns, a couple their homes.. There is a some new spots washed out under the edge of the roads. A few to the point of collapse.
Quoting 49. pottery:

Greetings, all.
I have not seen the ITCZ this moist in many moons. Maybe meaningful miasmic moisture means many more months of minimal mayhem ?
Mmmmm ??


Avoid alliteration, always.

So far, so good for you and I, Pott.
:)
You don't often see that much purple here in FL :

Quoting 23. hydrus:


Great satellite image !
in my post #12 I made mention of the hyper activity of the ITCZ. That being said there seems to be an area within the ITCZ near 8N 32w . There is some cyclonic turning in the lower cloud field. It could turn out to be nothing, but any area of that nature should be viewed with suspicion. albeit there is that area to the east of it which the models have latched on for cyclogenesis during the middle of next week.
Quoting 54. beell:



Avoid alliteration, always.

So far, so good for you and I, Pott.
:)


:):))
Another look at the spin just off the Mexican coast.
updated the radar loop further up the blog.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have diminished during the past few hours over the northeastern Caribbean Sea in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several days. However, isolated heavy rain and gusty winds are still possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent 2. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent 3. A small low pressure system located about 900 miles southwest of the Azores is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Forecaster Brennan
some Bad Winds with some of these storms today,stay alert and safe.............................................. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
152 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FLC019-121815-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0313.000000T0000Z-150912T1815Z/
CLAY FL-
152 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY...

AT 151 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CAMP BLANDING...OR 7 MILES WEST OF MIDDLEBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDDLEBURG...CAMP BLANDING AND KINGSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2987 8204 3009 8205 3014 8205 3018 8192
2991 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 244DEG 28KT 3003 8202

$$

September 12, 1988



Tomorrow has an interesting [local] hurricane history as well.
Quoting 53. Skyepony:


It's really hard to not blame about any hard, heavy rain that happens right now atleast partially on El Nino. It's been said to "seed the atmosphere for rain", but it could also be said that as the ocean releases the heat to the atmosphere, it warms it to hold more water. Either way or both, El Nino years tend to have more precipitation falling from the sky globally, and when it rains it is more likely to pour.

I've been moving dirt part of the morning. We had another 4" rain event on Monday & more since. Looks like excess is coming. I see people all over this area struggling to keep water out of their barns, a couple their homes.. There is a some new spots washed out under the edge of the roads. A few to the point of collapse.
You might want to read this article about the myth that warm air holds more water vapor.
Quoting 63. win1gamegiantsplease:

September 12, 1988



Tomorrow has an interesting [local] hurricane history as well.
Hurricane Gilbert, remember well living in South Florida . Being close to all the action keeps you on your toes !
Quoting 51. JRRP:


What is happening to the Super Godzilla Nino? Looks now like it will top out below 2.5, with the warmest waters in region 3.4 and West. How will this affect the rain forecast for California and the South? This does not look like it will bode well for Florida.
Under some heavy rain right now.
Thunder rolling somewhere off to the southeast.
Perhaps a Siesta is in order.....
I found this cast hurricane spell for us in Florida to try it may be our only hope at this point.
First, make a circle, then sit in it. Take a cup of rain water and put small rocks in it. (about 8 or 10) Then take the twig and twirl the rocks in the water while saying this chant: Oh gods and goddesses of air and water, please cleanse this world. for every wave that will hit the earth and crash is for every building that will meet the ground and smash. People will run and hide today before the hurricane blows them away. So mote it be!
i guess we will find out soon enough if this works :)
Quoting 59. Sfloridacat5:

Another look at the spin just off the Mexican coast.

let's track this spin,another one there,one blob over here,one blob over there.
Quoting 43. win1gamegiantsplease:



He says parked over us, I think he means stationary


Yes, parked, as in when your car is parked, it's stationary. Even though a trough is progressive, it's stationary for my purposes right now. I know exactly where the trough is. I was just describing the precipitation associated with the trough in the Southeast, and the moisture being added to the trough by the low in Mexico. I don't think there's a lot of interest in describing how the trough is affecting the weather in Labrador. If there is, I'll leave it to Beell to post it.
Quoting 66. NativeSun:

What is happening to the Super Godzilla Nino? Looks now like it will top out below 2.5, with the warmest waters in region 3.4 and West. How will this affect the rain forecast for California and the South? This does not look like it will bode well for Florida.



dont uesd that one


here the right one too uesd




looks like it will peak at 2.5 too 3.0 wish soulds this about right
Moving fast. That ULL is sure digging deep.

76. vis0
Does that spin heading nNE from Venezuela mean anything in joining the moisture plumes EAST of the Antilles?
Quoting 70. sar2401:

Yes, parked, as in when your car is parked, it's stationary. Even though a trough is progressive, it's stationary for my purposes right now. I know exactly where the trough is. I was just describing the precipitation associated with the trough in the Southeast, and the moisture being added to the trough by the low in Mexico. I don't think there's a lot of interest in describing how the trough is affecting the weather in Labrador. If there is, I'll leave it to Beell to post it.


I got what you were referring to the first time, semantics in this case not terribly important. And looks like that SEC school near you is having a little trouble with a no-name. I mean no-name because I assumed Jville State was in Florida.

Quoting 65. Wannab4castr63:

Hurricane Gilbert, remember well living in South Florida . Being close to all the action keeps you on your toes !


I was three years and a couple weeks after Gilbert, but saw a video of its power on the Yucatan. And at least we have a little more time up here to prepare not being as close, haven't had a Gulf hurricane swing backdoor since Charley.
cmc.td.150hr.gulf
79. JRRP
may be the last one that we will see in the MDR
euro

gfs
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064 -141-144-147-121930-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
235 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.NOW...

RADARS INDICATING A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE STORMS AND SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 20 MPH. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH AND FROM
ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH TO VERO BEACH. THE LARGE AREA OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH
FLORIDA SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTH LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA
COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
HAZARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF OUTDOORS OR ON INLAND
LAKES AND RIVERS...INDIAN RIVER LAGOON AND NEARSHORE WATERS KEEP AN
EYE TO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER AND SEEK
COVER IMMEDIATE IF WEATHER THREATENS.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

Quoting 64. sar2401:

You might want to read this article about the myth that warm air holds more water vapor.
Just one problem. Water vapor is part of the atmosphere. If this were a myth then we might as well throw away our skew-t charts.

The only problem with the phrase "warm air holds more water vapor" is the implicit idea that the air and the water vapor are somehow separate. (They are not, thermodynamically speaking.) I can live with this imprecision, but apparently many people cannot.

There is a nice article in Wikipedia about pragmatics. To wit: "Pragmatics is a subfield of linguistics and semiotics that studies the ways in which context contributes to meaning." Also: "The ability to understand another speaker's intended meaning is called pragmatic competence." When people say the air holds a certain amount of water, they are not intending to say that the air and water vapor are thermodynamically separate. Insisting that they are separate is an example of pragmatic incompetence.
Tornado hit Gainesville this afternoon. There is also flooding at the stadium.
Quoting 74. Tazmanian:




dont uesd that one


here the right one too uesd




looks like it will peak at 2.5 too 3.0 wish soulds this about right
Why use the one with the warm bias?
Quoting 82. gator23:

Tornado hit Gainesville this afternoon. There is also flooding at the stadium.


Wow, I know a few people driving down there for it (ECU grads)
Quoting 81. bappit:

Just one problem. Water vapor is part of the atmosphere. If this were a myth then we might as well throw away our skew-t charts.

The only problem with the phrase "warm air holds more water vapor" is the implicit idea that the air and the water vapor are somehow separate. (They are not, thermodynamically speaking.) I can live with this imprecision, but apparently many people cannot.

There is a nice article in Wikipedia about pragmatics. To wit: "Pragmatics is a subfield of linguistics and semiotics that studies the ways in which context contributes to meaning." Also: "The ability to understand another speaker's intended meaning is called pragmatic competence." When people say the air holds a certain amount of water, they are not intending to say that the air and water vapor are thermodynamically separate. Insisting that they are separate is an example of pragmatic incompetence.


Idealistically, that is correct. :)
yes...it does not depend on the air temperature to determine the amount of water vapor air can hold....however.....if the air is warm...then the water vapor is also warmer.....which....well...there's more........


In a technical sense, it is not true that warmer air "holds" more water
vapor than cold air. Actually, it is the temperature of the water vapor
itself that governs the amount of water vapor that may be held in the
atmosphere. The warmer the water vapor, the greater its maximum vapor
pressure. Vapor pressure is the portion of atmospheric air pressure
attributable to water vapor. The greater the maximum (saturation) vapor
pressure is the greater the capacity of the mixture of air and vapor to
hold water vapor.
Quoting 84. win1gamegiantsplease:



Wow, I know a few people driving down there for it (ECU grads)

Lake Alice is flooding into the street. Fortunately the tornado didnt touch down near campus.
Quoting 83. Gearsts:

Why use the one with the warm bias?



has EL nino in this weeks update will be about 2.4 so that map i post will be right on Q this about so i cant wait for monday update
For a change CA is covered in moisture :

mmm? We were supposed to get heavy rains and a chance of some severe weather today. Looks like forecast didn't pan out to well so far. Will see what happens into the evening.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...JET MAXIMA ASCD WITH APCHG UPR DISTURBANCE WL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. ONGOING
CONVECTION DRIVEN TO A LARGE EXTENT BY THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL FL INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THE AVBL REGIONAL MODEL GUID SINCE LATE FRI INTO TODAY HAS DONE A
POOR JOB DEPICTING EVOLUTION OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LTST
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY POINTS TO CURRENT ACTIVITY FROM THE BIG BEND TO
CENTRAL FL BEING THE MAIN EPISODE OF CONVECTION. THERE EXISTS A
CHC OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING. WL
KEEP MID RANGE SCT DESCRIPTOR FOR PRECIP AND STORMS IN PLACE PAST
00Z.
Some rain for PR :

First time in memory on my birthday.....we got nothing. 55 years ago Donna was amazing me in Babylon. Those were the days, my friends.
Quoting 90. hurricanewatcher61:

mmm? We were supposed to get heavy rains and a chance of some severe weather today. Looks like forecast didn't pan out to well so far. Will see what happens into the evening.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...JET MAXIMA ASCD WITH APCHG UPR DISTURBANCE WL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. ONGOING
CONVECTION DRIVEN TO A LARGE EXTENT BY THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL FL INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THE AVBL REGIONAL MODEL GUID SINCE LATE FRI INTO TODAY HAS DONE A
POOR JOB DEPICTING EVOLUTION OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LTST
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY POINTS TO CURRENT ACTIVITY FROM THE BIG BEND TO
CENTRAL FL BEING THE MAIN EPISODE OF CONVECTION. THERE EXISTS A
CHC OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING. WL
KEEP MID RANGE SCT DESCRIPTOR FOR PRECIP AND STORMS IN PLACE PAST
00Z.

Im in Gainesville a tornado touched down so it will be there soon enough.
Quoting 90. hurricanewatcher61:

mmm? We were supposed to get heavy rains and a chance of some severe weather today. Looks like forecast didn't pan out to well so far. Will see what happens into the evening.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...JET MAXIMA ASCD WITH APCHG UPR DISTURBANCE WL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. ONGOING
CONVECTION DRIVEN TO A LARGE EXTENT BY THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT NORTH AND CENTRAL FL INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

THE AVBL REGIONAL MODEL GUID SINCE LATE FRI INTO TODAY HAS DONE A
POOR JOB DEPICTING EVOLUTION OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LTST
SAT/RADAR IMAGERY POINTS TO CURRENT ACTIVITY FROM THE BIG BEND TO
CENTRAL FL BEING THE MAIN EPISODE OF CONVECTION. THERE EXISTS A
CHC OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER THIS EVENING. WL
KEEP MID RANGE SCT DESCRIPTOR FOR PRECIP AND STORMS IN PLACE PAST
00Z.


The front is still moving into Central Florida, that is when the forecast increases for heavy rain and severe weather
Guess we will see what happens........maybe a bit of rain.

euro and the gfs are inialising the wrong disturbance, The area is several hunded miles sse of the CV islands 5N 33W. That system is too deep in the tropics to get that nw pull into the mid atlantic.
98. vis0
webberweather53??
Quoting 92. eyewallblues:

First time in memory on my birthday.....we got nothing. 55 years ago Donna was amazing me in Babylon. Those were the days, my friends.
I was in a shelter in Puerto Rico, with my mother, my brother an sisters, my father was in the service, the island was under severe floods, while Donna turns north away from Puerto Rico, my first memory, too...we should be about the same age...
100. MahFL
Quoting 95. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Guess we will see what happens........maybe a bit of rain.




Ex Linda eh, progged to go to CA ?

From the Miami NWS Disco...

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. THEN THE REMNANTS OF GRACE...A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING OVER THE NE CARIB...WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA
MON NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE BRUSHING SOUTH
FLORIDA. INCREASED MOISTURE MON NIGHT-TUE ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING
E-SE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS (GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE) LOOKS
TO LEAD TO STORMY TIMES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO MON NIGHT THEN
ACROSS SOUTH FL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAINFALL/ISOLATED STREET FLOODING THEN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
H5 TEMPS NEAR -7C...OR A DEGREE COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THIS ALONG WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE COULD LEAD TO AN
ACTIVE TSTORM NIGHT MON NIGHT.
Quoting 97. stoormfury:

euro and the gfs are inialising the wrong disturbance, The area is several hunded miles sse of the CV islands 5N 33W. That system is too deep in the tropics to get that nw pull into the mid atlantic.
Agree, really low track... and looks healthy in the satellite..
104. beell
Quoting 102. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE REMNANTS OF GRACE...A
TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING OVER THE NE CARIB...WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA
MON NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE BRUSHING SOUTH
FLORIDA.


A little bit of a change in tune regarding the track of the wave axis?
The "spin" has become more defined. It appears to be moving south just off shore.
Quoting 64. sar2401:

You might want to read this article about the myth that warm air holds more water vapor.

Yeah if you want to believe a not-peer reviewed beer in a glass study & such.

Water Vapor in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Water Vapor is born to the atmosphere via evaporation, the rate and amount of which is dictated by the temperature of both the air and water. Check out Clausius Clapeyron relation, the state equation of which is the Ideal Gas Law. That article you posted twists up the Ideal Gas Law pretty hard. Talks about how gases aren't a function of each other Gases in the atmosphere are not dependent on one another for their content amounts in the atmosphere..that says nothing of each gases dependance on temperature..PV=nRT. They totally left the T out of that discussion trying to disprove Water vapor's importance in I'm assuming Climate Change..

It's about to rain here:)
It will be interesting to see if that "spin" can stay offshore. The earlier models predicted a low forming in that area. But it's so close to the coast it won't take much movement to the west to bring it onshore.
Quoting 95. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Guess we will see what happens........maybe a bit of rain.




Oh, so the rain is supposed to come from Linda.
Quoting 66. NativeSun:

What is happening to the Super Godzilla Nino? Looks now like it will top out below 2.5, with the warmest waters in region 3.4 and West. How will this affect the rain forecast for California and the South? This does not look like it will bode well for Florida.


Considering Nino 3.4 is above the peak shown on this chart now, you can pretty much discount this.
Quoting 108. Skyepony:


Yeah if you want to believe a not-peer reviewed beer in a glass study & such.

Water Vapor in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Water Vapor is born to the atmosphere via evaporation, the rate and amount of which is dictated by the temperature of both the air and water. Check out Clausius–Clapeyron relation, the state equation of which is the Ideal Gas Law. That article you posted twists up the Ideal Gas Law pretty hard. Talks about how gases aren't a function of each other Gases in the atmosphere are not dependent on one another for their content amounts in the atmosphere..that says nothing of each gases dependance on temperature..PV=nRT. They totally left the T out of that discussion trying to disprove Water vapor's importance in I'm assuming Climate Change..
Not such an isolated misconception. It has appeared on this blog's comment section before and been the featured topic of another blogger on WU. I've been biting my tongue.
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



Considering Nino 3.4 is above the peak shown on this chart now, you can pretty much discount this.
Gotta give it a little time. Short term fluctuations aren't that meaningful.
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



Considering Nino 3.4 is above the peak shown on this chart now, you can pretty much discount this.


Yeah it appears according to Dr. Steve Gregory that Nino 3.4 will rise to 2.4C Monday.
Quoting 97. stoormfury:

euro and the gfs are inialising the wrong disturbance, The area is several hunded miles sse of the CV islands 5N 33W. That system is too deep in the tropics to get that nw pull into the mid atlantic.
actually they are. The focused area per nhc is now in that area.
forecast rain chance keeps changing, now only 20% for the rest of the day here in Tampa/St Pete lol
118. vis0

Quoting 68. MiamiHeat305:

I found this cast hurricane spell for us in Florida to try it may be our only hope at this point.
First, make a circle, then sit in it. Take a cup of rain water and put small rocks in it. (about 8 or 10) Then take the twig and twirl the rocks in the water while saying this chant: Oh gods and goddesses of air and water, please cleanse this world. for every wave that will hit the earth and crash is for every building that will meet the ground and smash. People will run and hide today before the hurricane blows them away. So mote it be!
i guess we will find out soon enough if this works :)
Reply on my Zilly pg3 cmmnt#114
Not much rain here in north Orlando so far, 0.10" at most. Th really heavy cells have missed us each time so far this month. It looks like SE Orlando is getting a really strong storm right now. Hopefully more will move in and hold together from the west.
120. FOREX
Quoting 97. stoormfury:

euro and the gfs are inialising the wrong disturbance, The area is several hunded miles sse of the CV islands 5N 33W. That system is too deep in the tropics to get that nw pull into the mid atlantic.
Now wait just a minute.
Had a nice, strong storm come through just a little bit ago. Nice downpour and a good amount of lightning, I think there was some purple in the radar. Just a light rain now. Got right at an 1" so far.
Quoting 108. Skyepony:


Yeah if you want to believe a not-peer reviewed beer in a glass study & such.

Water Vapor in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Water Vapor is born to the atmosphere via evaporation, the rate and amount of which is dictated by the temperature of both the air and water. Check out Clausius Clapeyron relation, the state equation of which is the Ideal Gas Law. That article you posted twists up the Ideal Gas Law pretty hard. Talks about how gases aren't a function of each other Gases in the atmosphere are not dependent on one another for their content amounts in the atmosphere..that says nothing of each gases dependance on temperature..PV=nRT. They totally left the T out of that discussion trying to disprove Water vapor's importance in I'm assuming Climate Change..

It's about to rain here:)


Glad I don't have to take anymore chemistry as an undergrad.
Quoting 89. MahFL:

For a change CA is covered in moisture :




That's a bit deceiving though, deep layer moisture analysis shows the PW in most of California is blow 1 inch, or about as dry as we see in FL from dry air behind strong winter fronts. Most of California is still in very dry air. The water vapor loop is just showing some really high level moisture, which doesn't add up to much in total water vapor.
Quoting 38. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah might see a severe weather watch for C FL as temps are now nearing 90. Very unusual to have this much energy overhead in mid September.




I don't think there will be a watch, there is plenty of moisture and instability, but the line looks pretty unimpressive for all the support and such in place. Forecasters dropped pops to 60-70 in most areas which makes sense. I'm not really sure why the line looks as meager as it is though. Would have expected a strong, solid line of deep convection at this point given what's in place.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
452 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FLZ045-046-141-147-122115-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
SEMINOLE FL-
452 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ORANGE...
SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BITHLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MIMS AND SCOTTSMOOR AROUND 510 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 2863 8079 2872 8074 2880 8085 2858 8080
2847 8104 2851 8117 2878 8101 2889 8082
2878 8076 2878 8074 2876 8077 2877 8072
2874 8075 2873 8069 2875 8071 2876 8071
2867 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 233DEG 34KT 2860 8102

$$

15
Quoting 119. HurrMichaelOrl:

Not much rain here in north Orlando so far, 0.10" at most. Th really heavy cells have missed us each time so far this month. It looks like SE Orlando is getting a really strong storm right now. Hopefully more will move in and hold together from the west.


I wouldn't count on it lol. Not sure why but the line is pretty unimpressive so far with a lot of broken line segments and not much deeper sustained convection. It weird because all the moisture, energy, and instability would suggest a much stronger line in the gulf as model guidance had shown. Looks more like hit or miss stuff associated with a moist onshore flow instead of a solid frontal system.
128. vis0

Quoting 64. sar2401:

You might want to read this article about the myth that warm air holds more water vapor.
This is IN PART how the ml-d works, thanks sar2401
Quoting 125. Grothar:




Link


Sounds to me like someone needs to reduce laxative intake in California.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A
DEEPENING TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY
FILLS AS IT TRAVERSES NORTHEAST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A 30-40 KNOT MID LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL TODAY HAS STAYED UP NORTH ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH
INCREASING RADAR RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
THE LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS TREND WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE RIVER FLOODING THAT IS OCCURRING AT SEVERAL
LOCAL RIVERS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RISE
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL...THEN
WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&
Same thing in Melbourne today, busted forecast so far, but hoping to get some rain tonight.
Quoting 117. Hurricanes101:

forecast rain chance keeps changing, now only 20% for the rest of the day here in Tampa/St Pete lol
The Front has just come thru the S. Shore of Lake P here.

My winds are WnW @ 10.



Delicious'

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
314 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2015

Short term...
cooler and drier air has already begun moving into the area.
Dewpoints currently range from upper 50s to upper 60s across the
area and temperatures sitting in the lower 80s. Overnight lows tonight
are forecast to drop into the middle to upper 50s for northern areas
and into the 60s for most southern areas. Cold air advection will
continue into Sunday...with afternoon temperatures topping out in
the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Sunday night should be a
couple degrees cooler than tonight...and with very light
northeasterly flow the typical drainage areas may outperform the
going forecast. Am carrying low to middle 50s through the Pearl and
Pascagoula drainage areas which is on the higher side of...but
still within the range of guidance.

Long term...
high pressure slides toward the East Coast on Monday and winds
will become more easterly. This will result in a slow return of
moisture on Monday. By Monday night winds become onshore and Gulf
moisture starts to make its way back into the area. This will
result in a significant rise in overnight lows. Temperatures Monday night
are forecast to be 7 to 12 degrees higher than Sunday night.
Afternoon temperatures will also rise...but not nearly as much as the
overnight lows. Expect near or slightly above normal highs through
the remainder of the period...with temperatures topping out in the upper
80s to just over 90 degrees.

Concerning probability of precipitation...with abundant moisture returning to the area...
expect generally scattered convection primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours each day from Tuesday through the end
of the period.

&&
NHC should show the invest symbol for the disturbance SW of CV in those maps. After all, she is at 20% , 60% in five days.. Not even one storm world wide, at peak of the season Sept 12.....
135. MahFL
Quoting 123. Jedkins01:



That's a bit deceiving though, deep layer moisture analysis shows the PW in most of California is blow 1 inch...


Well one layer at a time is a start...
136. vis0

Quoting 101. win1gamegiantsplease:



Oh, so I guess since nobody in the US is "in the cone" now it's okay to post non-weather graphics. Haven't put one up since the last time I was banned for it during Erika's lifetime.
i join da club, (with names as sar, sts, gro?,  taz , you,  i'm in good company) me-4 bans last 2mnths. (2 cmmnts had important predictions that led to the loss of lives but everything on the cmmnt had to go /removed...though i should have thought it out and separate the zilliness from the prediction/warnings as i've done since then...usually).  Create yer own zilly pg (not necessarily on WxU blogs) so when its busy here and ya have creative juices flowing post'em there.

i would say a WxU moderators MOTTO:: Spice adds to life, but when life is in the balance spice takes a back seat to essence of warnings.
Quoting 127. Jedkins01:



I wouldn't count on it lol. Not sure why but the line is pretty unimpressive so far with a lot of broken line segments and not much deeper sustained convection. It weird because all the moisture, energy, and instability would suggest a much stronger line in the gulf as model guidance had shown. Looks more like hit or miss stuff associated with a moist onshore flow instead of a solid frontal system.


My thoughts exactly. I am just hoping for 20-30 minutes of moderately heavy rain as the area of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf makes it here. I doubt the storms will hold together except in isolated spots.
138. MahFL
Quoting 135. MahFL:



Well one layer at a time is a start...


Well well well :

"RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING WET WEATHER PATTERN ON TUESDAY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A LONGER AND WET COMMUTE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP."
140. vis0
Double barreled trough? (read title of img)


some of these storms today have tropical storm force winds,some in excess of 60mph..stay alert florida......................................SEVER E WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
533 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FLC017-053-122145-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-150912T2145Z/
HERNANDO FL-CITRUS FL-
533 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN HERNANDO AND SOUTH CENTRAL CITRUS COUNTIES...

AT 532 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEEKI WACHEE GARDENS...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF SPRING
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING HILL...BROOKSVILLE...WEEKI WACHEE...WEEKI WACHEE GARDENS...
NORTH WEEKI WACHEE...SOUTH BROOKSVILLE...NORTH BROOKSVILLE...TIMBER
PINES...SUGARMILL WOODS...BROOKRIDGE...CHASSAHOWITZKA REFUGE...ROYAL
HIGHLANDS...HIGH POINT...LAKE LINDSEY...GLEN LAKES...CHASSAHOWITZKA
AND WEEKI WACHEE ACRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 2869 8266 2868 8264 2870 8263 2877 8238
2850 8232 2846 8268 2849 8266 2853 8267
2859 8264 2864 8266 2864 8268 2865 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 258DEG 28KT 2859 8261

$$
Quoting 134. HuracanTaino:

NHC should show the invest symbol for the disturbance SW of CV in those maps. After all, she is at 20% , 60% in five days.. Not even one storm world wide, at peak of the season Sept 12.....



more like 30%
The line is getting here and storms are forming in front of it, looks to be a stormy evening tonight
Quoting 138. MahFL:



Well well well :

"RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING WET WEATHER PATTERN ON TUESDAY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A LONGER AND WET COMMUTE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS EARLY SEASON STORM
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP."


In other words, be prepared for wet streets! Gasssppp! Though I guess for them that's a big deal, lol.
Quoting 83. Gearsts:

Why use the one with the warm bias?
The newest one tops out around 2.0.
Seems like all the storms are moving either North or South of us here in Brevard County. A few rumbles of thunder and some light. Then the sun is out.
Light rain that is.
Quoting 147. hurricanewatcher61:

Seems like all the storms are moving either North or South of us here in Brevard County. A few rumbles of thunder and some light. Then the sun is out.
Quoting 108. Skyepony:


Yeah if you want to believe a not-peer reviewed beer in a glass study & such.

Water Vapor in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Water Vapor is born to the atmosphere via evaporation, the rate and amount of which is dictated by the temperature of both the air and water. Check out Clausius Clapeyron relation, the state equation of which is the Ideal Gas Law. That article you posted twists up the Ideal Gas Law pretty hard. Talks about how gases aren't a function of each other Gases in the atmosphere are not dependent on one another for their content amounts in the atmosphere..that says nothing of each gases dependance on temperature..PV=nRT. They totally left the T out of that discussion trying to disprove Water vapor's importance in I'm assuming Climate Change..

It's about to rain here:)
Did you read this part at the bottom?

"My day job is teaching physics at the University of Minnesota, Rochester"

He has a PhD in physics. I've been following his blog for a while. He was one of the early believers in climate change and has written about it often. If you don't believe him, just do a search on "Does warm air hold more water". You'll find many papers that also address this.
151. MahFL
Quoting 145. Jedkins01:



In other words, be prepared for wet streets! Gasssppp! Though I guess for them that's a big deal, lol.


Actually they do warn of oil mixing with water causing slippery roads, with no rain for months the oil builds up.
Quoting 145. Jedkins01:



In other words, be prepared for wet streets! Gasssppp! Though I guess for them that's a big deal, lol.
Believe it or not, it really is.. Since it doesn't normally rain in the summer, the streets accumulate a coating of oil from all the cars passing by. The first rain of the season gets under that oil and turns the roads into the equivalent of an ice storm. I did everything I could not to commute during the first rain of the season. You'd be amazed at all the ways drivers can crash. :-)
153. MahFL
Quoting 152. sar2401:

Believe it or not, it really is.. Since it doesn't normally rain in the summer, the streets accumulate a coating of oil from all the cars passing by. The first rain of the season gets under that oil and turns the roads into the equivalent of an ice storm. I did everything I could not to commute during the first rain of the season. You'd be amazed at all the ways drivers can crash. :-)


They have been warned !

"SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS...A BUILDUP OF OIL ON THE ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO EXTRA
SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS"
Quoting 147. hurricanewatcher61:

Seems like all the storms are moving either North or South of us here in Brevard County. A few rumbles of thunder and some light. Then the sun is out.
The whole rain area looks like it's falling apart pretty fast. It looks like some dry air from the front might be working its way into the line.
155. vis0


suppose to read "...LIKE a cog within a bigger cog". Again minor threats as to TS but flooding does not have to be part of a TS to be severe as Dr. Masters, Mr. Henson, Sar, STS and those in Dominica have stated.

Keep the spirits up in Dominica (All of the Antilles be they rain soaked or dry) prepare for anything nature presents and use your knowledge & intelligence to show that inhabitants of The Nature Island can over come nature's tests BECAUSE they are from The Nature Island.
Hope our friends in Puerto Rico are getting a little something helpful...



I'm not sure ex-Grace exists as an identifiable entity any longer. The rain that exists now over Puerto Rico (I hope it's raining) is coming from a plume of moisture to the south that looks like it tapping a big thunderstorm complex over Central America. From what I can tell, the wave associated with ex-Grace is making very little if any progress west. The surface map still shows a tropical wave though. It will be interesting to read what the NHC has to say on the next update.

Quoting 153. MahFL:



They have been warned !

"SINCE MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS...A BUILDUP OF OIL ON THE ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO EXTRA
SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS"
Yes, they have. They get the same warning for the first significant rain every first rain of the season. It makes absolutely no difference. It gets so bad that the CHP puts out a Sigalert telling drivers only to call them if the vehicle is disabled or there are injuries because they are so backed up on accidents. God forbid there's also any fog. What a mess.
159. viman
Quoting 156. GeoffreyWPB:

Hope our friends in Puerto Rico are getting a little something helpful...





Yes, but the Virgin Islands are getting left out, We need rain too!!!
:)
Don't understand why NWS in Melbourne is still calling for 70% of rain tonight, it was like that today. Barely got 10% if that.
Quoting 154. sar2401:

The whole rain area looks like it's falling apart pretty fast. It looks like some dry air from the front might be working its way into the line.
Quoting 155. vis0:



suppose to read "...LIKE a cog within a bigger cog". Again minor threats as to TS but flooding does not have to be part of a TS to be severe as Dr. Masters, Mr. Henson, Sar, STS and those in Dominica have stated.

Keep the spirits up in Dominica (All of the Antilles be they rain soaked or dry) prepare for anything nature presents and use your knowledge & intelligence to show that inhabitants of The Nature Island can over come nature's tests BECAUSE they are from The Nature Island.

The main thing I see is a bulge north in the ITCZ close to the Leewards. That's putting a lot of moisture over the islands in a broad low pressure environment. That destabilizes the atmosphere and storms just continue to form near and over the Islands. That's a good thing for most of the islands, but not so good from Dominica. There's currently just scattered clouds in Roseau, so all we can hope is one of these cells doesn't decide to linger over the island.

Quoting 145. Jedkins01:



In other words, be prepared for wet streets! Gasssppp! Though I guess for them that's a big deal, lol.


Especially if you're dealing with an asphalt road surface. The asphalt is made of petroleum, petroleum and water don't mix, and you know the rest...the road surface becomes an oily skating rink. At least with concrete you're not dealing with an oil based emulsion, and you can create little grooves in the concrete surface to drain the water.
Quoting 160. hurricanewatcher61:

Don't understand why NWS in Melbourne is still calling for 70% of rain tonight, it was like that today. Barely got 10% if that.
I imagine that was based on the models and the idea that there would be a lot more convection than what we've seen today. They'll probably dial back the probability when they update the forecast this evening. When it's time now, I really don't look at the forecast. I can usually get a pretty good idea from the satellite and radar what's really going to happen. Sometimes forecasts just don't pan out.
164. JLPR2
Quoting 156. GeoffreyWPB:

Hope our friends in Puerto Rico are getting a little something helpful...






Meh... nothing noteworthy, just some isolated thunderstorms and some light showers. I was really hoping for something more widespread, but it didn't materialize so the water rationing continues...
165. vis0
Quoting 108. Skyepony:


Yeah if you want to believe a not-peer reviewed beer in a glass study & such.

Water
Vapor in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Water Vapor is
born to the atmosphere via evaporation, the rate and amount of which is
dictated by the temperature of both the air and water. Check out Clausius Clapeyron relation,
the state equation of which is the Ideal Gas Law. That article you
posted twists up the Ideal Gas Law pretty hard. Talks about how gases
aren't a function of each other Gases in the atmosphere are not dependent on one another for their content amounts in the atmosphere..that
says nothing of each gases dependance on temperature..PV=nRT. They
totally left the T out of that discussion trying to disprove Water
vapor's importance in I'm assuming Climate Change..

It's about to rain here:)

Quoting 150. sar2401:

Did you read this part at the bottom?

"My day job is teaching physics at the University of Minnesota, Rochester"

He has a PhD in physics. I've been following his blog for a while. He was one of the early believers in climate change and has written about it often. If you don't believe him, just do a search on "Does warm air hold more water". You'll find many papers that also address this.
Reply at my zilly pg3 cmmnt#115, then come back here to keep up with observations.
Quoting 162. slavicthunder:



Especially if you're dealing with an asphalt road surface. The asphalt is made of petroleum, petroleum and water don't mix, and you know the rest...the road surface becomes an oily skating rink. At least with concrete you're not dealing with an oil based emulsion, and you can create little grooves in the concrete surface to drain the water.
They've developed a way to grove the asphalt surface on the freeways, and they are using the old tire and asphalt mix on a lot of them now, which really helps the rain drain off. Unfortunately, that never seems to matter for the first rain. Everyone will still go 75 (except for the Porches going 90 in the fast lane) because Californians live in this fantasy world where they are all good drivers. The first time someone puts on their brakes, there will be a 16 car pileup. Driving in California is one thing I really don't miss.
Link There is turning in that wave I see. Code orange next TWO for 2 days.
168. JRRP
Quoting 154. sar2401:

The whole rain area looks like it's falling apart pretty fast. It looks like some dry air from the front might be working its way into the line.


Moisture analysis doesn't indicate any sign of dry air to speak of, in fact moisture is pooling more so now then it was earlier when activity was more numerous, ironically. As I mentioned earlier, everything in place right now would suggest a strong line of thunderstorms moving through in Central FL, but instead it's just broken scattered stuff, and really 40-50 pops could have been fine. Though I understand why they put 80-90% as upper level support combing with high cape and deep tropical moisture of 2.0 inch PW's is plenty enough for an organized line of strong convection. In fact, I've seen a lot less impressive parameters produce a lot more.

Sometimes meteorology is just fickle that way, and the atmosphere sometimes goes against "what it should".

The only thing I can think of is it appears the best upper support mainly scooted by across the big bend and NE FL earlier. And while yes the best upper support did not dig further southeast, there is plenty of moisture and higher instability further south that "should" have made up for the lacking upper support. Sometimes things don't evolve the way we expect, event when all the forecast parameters do happen, which is quite possibly the most frustrating way for a forecast to fail as a meteorologist.
Nice 3/4" rainfall here this afternoon, with thunder overhead (cloud-to-cloud stuff).
Looks like we going to get a wet couple days. The ITCZ is looking like a 'normal' rainy season for the first time in a LONG time.

I spent the afternoon out in it, chopping trees that were weeds a couple weeks ago.
Tomorrow, 'somebody' has to drag all that stuff away.
Any takers ????

:):))
171. JLPR2
Very elongated disturbance might try to consolidate around 30w, should take a awhile to pull all of this together.



Lots of lightning and heavy rain here in Longwood.

Quoting 166. sar2401:

They've developed a way to grove the asphalt surface on the freeways, and they are using the old tire and asphalt mix on a lot of them now, which really helps the rain drain off. Unfortunately, that never seems to matter for the first rain. Everyone will still go 75 (except for the Porches going 90 in the fast lane) because Californians live in this fantasy world where they are all good drivers. The first time someone puts on their brakes, there will be a 16 car pileup. Driving in California is one thing I really don't miss.


Yeah, if your asphalt is thick enough I suppose you can groove it or tine it. You have to have a minimum lateral slope as well, which is often compromised by road rutting. This is why we need to take more tractor-trailers off of the highways and get those containers onto rail cars...not just for the environment but for the health of the roads.
174. JRRP
( I thought not. Lazy Scoundrels, all of them )




Best model consensus all year. Could we see Ida and Joaquin from this?
This is very much a bust for the West Coast of Florida
Quoting 123. Jedkins01:



That's a bit deceiving though, deep layer moisture analysis shows the PW in most of California is blow 1 inch, or about as dry as we see in FL from dry air behind strong winter fronts. Most of California is still in very dry air. The water vapor loop is just showing some really high level moisture, which doesn't add up to much in total water vapor.

Nonetheless, radar is showing ppt offshore and lightning was detected earlier today as well. Yes, there is a very dry layer sandwiched between the moist surface and upper levels, and I'd guess some of that ppt is virga.
Quoting 159. viman:


Yes, but the Virgin Islands are getting left out, We need rain too!!!
:)
It looked like St. Croix got some decent rain last night, at least on radar. St Thomas is just a little too far north for the rain when ex-Grace had its act together. Now it looks like the remaining showers are still focused to the south of you. Pretty much sucks to have all these tropical systems so close and still get nothing out of them.
Quoting 175. pottery:

( I thought not. Lazy Scoundrels, all of them )
Darn right!
Quoting 173. slavicthunder:



Yeah, if your asphalt is thick enough I suppose you can groove it or tine it. You have to have a minimum lateral slope as well, which is often compromised by road rutting. This is why we need to take more tractor-trailers off of the highways and get those containers onto rail cars...not just for the environment but for the health of the roads.
You ought to see the road road rutting in Alabama from all the basically unregulated log trucks. Within a year of putting down new pavement, the road ruts are back, filling up with water when it rains and making it easy to hydroplane. At least California still has weigh stations. Alabama is the only state I've been in that doesn't have a single permanent weigh station. Unfortunately, Alabama is owned by timber companies, so this will never change.
Quoting 162. slavicthunder:



Especially if you're dealing with an asphalt road surface. The asphalt is made of petroleum, petroleum and water don't mix, and you know the rest...the road surface becomes an oily skating rink. At least with concrete you're not dealing with an oil based emulsion, and you can create little grooves in the concrete surface to drain the water.

I'll never forget the one time I was totally out of control on the road. 40 years ago driving a 1975 Trans-Am, nice brakes, suspension, tires, etc. Driving 75 in the left lane of I-75 south...west of North Miami. A light to moderate rain started on a partly sunny day after no rain in 2 weeks or so. I lost traction instantly without warning and proceeded directly into the thankfully extra-wide(100 yards or so) grassy flat median between the 2 sides of the 12 lane Interstate...doing 2 or 3 or 4 360's and coming to a rest. The trooper who pulled up immediately after said he saw the whole thing and it was a case of hydroplaning on a road where a little rain brought up the oil in the asphalt. I drove away and made it to Hialeah in time for the early daily double. I remember I sat next to Pete Rose(drunk) in the Flamingo Bar that day.
183. txjac
Quoting 173. slavicthunder:



Yeah, if your asphalt is thick enough I suppose you can groove it or tine it. You have to have a minimum lateral slope as well, which is often compromised by road rutting. This is why we need to take more tractor-trailers off of the highways and get those containers onto rail cars...not just for the environment but for the health of the roads.


Wouldnt that be lovely? I miss trains, lots of childhood memories running down to the tracks to see if we could get there before the engine so we could get the engineer to blow the whistle ...and then hang out and wait for the caboose to pass to see if we could see the caboose guy.

Was an absolutely glorious day here in Houston. The 10 degrees or so that it's cooler have made all the difference ..the air even looks "clearer". Seems like we are going to have a couple days of this, the mornings are special as they have been so cool ..good dog walking weather.
Quoting 169. Jedkins01:



Moisture analysis doesn't indicate any sign of dry air to speak of, in fact moisture is pooling more so now then it was earlier when activity was more numerous, ironically. As I mentioned earlier, everything in place right now would suggest a strong line of thunderstorms moving through in Central FL, but instead it's just broken scattered stuff, and really 40-50 pops could have been fine. Though I understand why they put 80-90% as upper level support combing with high cape and deep tropical moisture of 2.0 inch PW's is plenty enough for an organized line of strong convection. In fact, I've seen a lot less impressive parameters produce a lot more.

Sometimes meteorology is just fickle that way, and the atmosphere sometimes goes against "what it should".

The only thing I can think of is it appears the best upper support mainly scooted by across the big bend and NE FL earlier. And while yes the best upper support did not dig further southeast, there is plenty of moisture and higher instability further south that "should" have made up for the lacking upper support. Sometimes things don't evolve the way we expect, event when all the forecast parameters do happen, which is quite possibly the most frustrating way for a forecast to fail as a meteorologist.
Yep, that pretty much sums it up. It does look like on the WV loop that some at least not as moist air got entrained in the circulation all the way back by Texas. The front is also starting to weaken and wash out, so there's not the energy from the front they thought would be there this morning. Still, as you say, things are so unstable that almost anything should set off thunderstorms. It's really frustrating be sitting here with dewpoints in the high 70's with a temperature in the mid-90's and PW of over two inches and watch nothing happen. We obviously still don't have a handle on every aspect of how the atmosphere behaves in these situations. I suspect we still won't when you're getting ready to retire.

Quoting 177. Hurricanes101:

This is very much a bust for the West Coast of Florida


What is a bust?
we will have a new invest soon
Quoting 185. wartsttocs:



What is a bust?



Is this thing on?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity while
it moves westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next several days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

maybe invest tonight
Peak of the season and dead as a door nail.
Quoting 183. txjac:



Wouldnt that be lovely? I miss trains, lots of childhood memories running down to the tracks to see if we could get there before the engine so we could get the engineer to blow the whistle ...and then hang out and wait for the caboose to pass to see if we could see the caboose guy.

Was an absolutely glorious day here in Houston. The 10 degrees or so that it's cooler have made all the difference ..the air even looks "clearer". Seems like we are going to have a couple days of this, the mornings are special as they have been so cool ..good dog walking weather.
No more cabooses, Tx. They were replaced a couple of decades ago by FRED's - Flashing Rear End Devices. They hook them up to the air hose and stick them in the coupler of the last car. An onboard computer reports if the air pressure goes down, and the battery powers a flashing red light for rear warning. I love trains, but a lot of the romance has gone out of railroading.

The front has still not gone through here. We had a high of 85, and it's still 79 with a dewpoint of 71. We are supposed to have a low of 54, but the front better get a move on if that's going to happen. All I got was a lousy 0.17" of rain of the front, and the rain is gone now. I'm sure looking forward to a couple of cool mornings though.
Quoting 177. Hurricanes101:

This is very much a bust for the West Coast of Florida


Yep, definitely a no show for the Tampa Bay area. Pinellas County had some of the highest pops and qpf forecast too. The am forecast was 90% with 1-2 inches of rain likely. As I mentioned earlier, the "ingredients" did materialize as the models showed but the rain did not. In reality, today could have just been a run of the mill west flow day but even then, the faster than average flow help to limit rainfall more than even a typical summer day would. Welcome to meteorology, lol.

All in all just a not a big deal, which is surprising. But I'm sure areas with saturated grounds aren't complaining, there will be plenty more chances for heavy rain by next week.
Future Ida about to exit Africa?
Quoting 183. txjac:



Wouldnt that be lovely? I miss trains, lots of childhood memories running down to the tracks to see if we could get there before the engine so we could get the engineer to blow the whistle ...and then hang out and wait for the caboose to pass to see if we could see the caboose guy.

Was an absolutely glorious day here in Houston. The 10 degrees or so that it's cooler have made all the difference ..the air even looks "clearer". Seems like we are going to have a couple days of this, the mornings are special as they have been so cool ..good dog walking weather.


I love trains! Love 'em. And Houston needs a high-speed passenger train down the Energy Corridor like there's no manana. Here in Calgary we've embraced light rail transit and it certainly takes a lot of vehicles off the road. Then every once in a while a nice 2-mile long Canadian Pacific intermodal train rumbles through town and I'm reminded of how many trucks are displaced from the highway by trains. Perhaps a bullet train from Houston to Eufala might be viable.
This some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen!
Quoting 177. Hurricanes101:

This is very much a bust for the West Coast of Florida


Getting crushed here in Longwood. Major flooding in the neighborhood now.

Storms training over my area.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Minimal shower and thunderstorm activity is currently associated
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable
for redevelopment of this system during the next several days.
However, isolated heavy rain and gusty winds are still possible
across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Shower activity has increased over the past 24 hours in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A small low pressure system located about 950 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Minimal shower and thunderstorm activity is currently associated
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable
for redevelopment of this system during the next several days.
However, isolated heavy rain and gusty winds are still possible
across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Shower activity has increased over the past 24 hours in association
with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A small low pressure system located about 950 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

Quoting 195. slavicthunder:



I love trains! Love 'em. And Houston needs a high-speed passenger train down the Energy Corridor like there's no manana. Here in Calgary we've embraced light rail transit and it certainly takes a lot of vehicles off the road. Then every once in a while a nice 2-mile long Canadian Pacific intermodal train rumbles through town and I'm reminded of how many trucks are displaced from the highway by trains. Perhaps a bullet train from Houston to Eufala might be viable.
Well, considering the only railroad we have left is a short line that comes across the lake from Georgia to service a couple of our remaining industries, and that the track has a 15 mph speed limit because most of the ties are down in the mud, and the tracks don't go any further west than Eufaula now, I don't think a bullet train is in our future. :-)
Quoting 194. unknowncomic:

Future Ida about to exit Africa?



Ida is most likely the wave that is currently 60%

Quoting 176. HurricaneAndre:





Best model consensus all year. Could we see Ida and Joaquin from this?


So the models are finally agreeing with each other.

It took them all season to finally learn how to get along!
Quoting 194. unknowncomic:

Future Ida about to exit Africa?

I think future Ida is already out in the Atlantic southwest of the CV islands. With the way African waves have been behaving this year, I give no credence to what one looks like while still over land.
Quoting 202. FunnelVortex:



So the models are finally agreeing with each other.

It took them all season to finally learn how to get along!
Not exactly. The only two in close agreement are the GFS and, strangely, the CMC. The ECMWF is off in timing, the location of the low, and intensity. Frankly, I don't pay a lot of attention to the Navgem given its performance. If the northern low is really the disturbance south of the CV islands now, it's apparently going to take an out to sea turn pretty early. I don't know what the low to the south is. I assume it's yet another junky African wave we'll have to follow for about two weeks as the remnants just won't die. We've spent more time looking at remnants and ghost storms this year than looking at real storms.
Storm Rainfall Totals


Quoting 197. StormTrackerScott:



Getting crushed here in Longwood. Major flooding in the neighborhood now.

Storms training over my area.




Why are you posting on here? With major flooding you should be protecting your house and family.
Quoting 201. FunnelVortex:



Ida is most likely the wave that is currently 60%


70% now. It's taking off like a rocket!!!
Quoting 207. Bucsboltsfan:



Why are you posting on here? With major flooding you should be protecting your house and family.
I think he means very large puddles out in the street.
Quoting 208. sar2401:

70% now. It's taking off like a rocket!!!


Now it's 70%? Why's it not on the floaters page yet???

Anyways, if it does form, it will have a nice supply of moisture so the SAL shouldnt really be a problem until it moves north and gets cut off from it's supply of moisture.
Quoting 159. viman:


Yes, but the Virgin Islands are getting left out, We need rain too!!!
:)

We also need rain in SXM / SBH / AXA....
Take all the rain the rain from Dominica !
Please Flood us ! Our tanks are empty !


this tropical wave at 70% in five days going out to sea
Quoting 177. Hurricanes101:

This is very much a bust for the West Coast of Florida


I complete changed my plans today in anticipation of a significant rain event. Turns out I shouldn't have changed anything. Oh well...
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Not exactly. The only two in close agreement are the GFS and, strangely, the CMC. The ECMWF is off in timing, the location of the low, and intensity. Frankly, I don't pay a lot of attention to the Navgem given its performance. If the northern low is really the disturbance south of the CV islands now, it's apparently going to take an out to sea turn pretty early. I don't know what the low to the south is. I assume it's yet another junky African wave we'll have to follow for about two weeks as the remnants just won't die. We've spent more time looking at remnants and ghost storms this year than looking at real storms.


I've never seen the blog track remnants so excessively. Actually, the NHC is doing it as well. They are still tracking Grace's remnants, it's still on their page last time I checked.



heavy rain coming soon if you live in new haven to boston
Quoting 212. hurricanes2018:



this tropical wave at 70% in five days going out to sea


Five days it has a chance to become a hurricane before it goes north and gets cut off from the moisture and starts sucking in dry air.
Quoting 177. Hurricanes101:

This is very much a bust for the West Coast of Florida
Some people say they are getting crushed though. You just don't live in the right neighborhood. :-)
Quoting 209. sar2401:

I think he means very large puddles out in the street.


Haven't seen any flood warnings yet.
Quoting 191. sar2401:

No more cabooses, Tx. They were replaced a couple of decades ago by FRED's - Flashing Rear End Devices. They hook them up to the air hose and stick them in the coupler of the last car. An onboard computer reports if the air pressure goes down, and the battery powers a flashing red light for rear warning. I love trains, but a lot of the romance has gone out of railroading.

The front has still not gone through here. We had a high of 85, and it's still 79 with a dewpoint of 71. We are supposed to have a low of 54, but the front better get a move on if that's going to happen. All I got was a lousy 0.17" of rain of the front, and the rain is gone now. I'm sure looking forward to a couple of cool mornings though.


I got 0.77 here which is pretty good, especially since it was looking like we weren't going to get anything. Although none of it was exciting, just steady moderate rain for several hours at about 0.10-0.20 per hour.

I've yet to locally see a strong thunderstorm at my location or a 1.00 inch plus day.
221. OCF
The time since the last rain in the Los Angeles area isn't as many months as it would usually be at this time of year. After all, it rained in July (remember Dolores?)

And hey, when I was out for a walk this morning, at about 9:00 I got sprinkled on! But seriously: overnight lows of 78 are not why we live in coastal California. This had better change soon.
Quoting 214. FunnelVortex:



I've never seen the blog track remnants so excessively. Actually, the NHC is doing it as well. They are still tracking Grace's remnants, it's still on their page last time I checked.
Yes, it is. I think after what happened in Dominica, the NHC is pretty sensitive to anything that even looks like it could cause flooding. In other years, ex-Grace would have been allowed to live out its remaining life with no yellow X and no tracking by the NHC. They also had the example of Erika getting to the Gulf, with lots of people arm flapping about how it was going to redevelop, and then the darn thing wouldn't go away. The NHC knew there was no chance for Erika to redevelop just as they know there's no chance for Grace to redevelop, but they need to respond to all the people getting excited on Facebook.
Looks like this line of storms might just make it here into Melbourne.
Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



Haven't seen any flood warnings yet.
Sometimes major flooding is more in the eye of the beholder than an actual meteorological event.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Some people say they are getting crushed though. You just don't live in the right neighborhood. :-)


Well if you think about it, looking at coverage of heavy cells, it's really no more than a typical average day with heating and high moisture. Some areas got really heavy rains and many others didn't. Just scattered stuff. Although to some extent, that is the nature of convection in general, it never covers everything, it's simply not really possible given physics of convection. But today coverage really just looked like a day of fast flow with high moisture down there instead of a front with upper support. Though the upper support did weaken through the day, it usually only takes a hint of upper support to lead to widespread thunderstorms in that air mass. A lot of the west coast FL flood events this summer were easily triggered only by very weak upper support and a dying front in a similar air mass. In fact this event had more support still, yet ironically there was less rain.
Thank you cold front, 68 light breeze, feels like fall.  Perhaps a warm up later, but to all in the SE, hope you are getting this, in Atlanta it sure feels fine.
Quoting 221. OCF:

The time since the last rain in the Los Angeles area isn't as many months as it would usually be at this time of year. After all, it rained in July (remember Dolores?)

And hey, when I was out for a walk this morning, at about 9:00 I got sprinkled on! But seriously: overnight lows of 78 are not why we live in coastal California. This had better change soon.

That's what happens when the tropics come to visit. I really hated it when I was younger, and the only thing I could afford was a swamp cooler. Worked great until the monsoons came.
228. beell
This morning's Day 1 Outlook from the SPC.

...NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY...
PROXIMITY OF SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL...WSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CLOUDS/EXISTING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...BUOYANCY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY PW AOA 2.00 INCHES. SATELLITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND 40 KT MID-LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY FOSTER SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DMGG GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER NRN AND CNTRL FL.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

Did you read this part at the bottom?

"My day job is teaching physics at the University of Minnesota, Rochester"

He has a PhD in physics. I've been following his blog for a while. He was one of the early believers in climate change and has written about it often. If you don't believe him, just do a search on "Does warm air hold more water". You'll find many papers that also address this.
LOL

Better throw away the skew-T charts then. Also, if he was around in the 1800's, as you imply, then ... ummm, really?
Quoting 225. Jedkins01:



Well if you think about it, looking at coverage of heavy cells, it's really no more than a typical average day with heating and high moisture. Some areas got really heavy rains and many others didn't. Just scattered stuff. Although to some extent, that is the nature of convection in general, it never covers everything, it's simply not really possible given physics of convection. But today coverage really just looked like a day of fast flow with high moisture down there instead of a front with upper support. Though the upper support did weaken through the day, it usually only takes a hint of upper support to lead to widespread thunderstorms in that air mass. A lot of the west coast FL flood events this summer were easily triggered only by very weak upper support and a dying front in a similar air mass. In fact this event had more support still, yet ironically there was less rain.
Quite true. I think this is going to be the case for the rest of the week as well. I sure don't see a major rain event in the offing. You always get 0.77" of rain from nothing storms. That kind of rain up here would be a major event.
Quoting 228. beell:

This morning's Day 1 Outlook from the SPC.

...NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY...
PROXIMITY OF SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL...WSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CLOUDS/EXISTING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...BUOYANCY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY PW AOA 2.00 INCHES. SATELLITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND 40 KT MID-LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY FOSTER SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DMGG GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER NRN AND CNTRL FL.
This is what the Day One forecast, issued at 2:47 pm CDT says -

...DISCUSSION...
AS THE STRONGER BAND OF CONVECTION -- NOW INVOF THE NERN FL COAST --
CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE...REMNANT SEVERE RISK FARTHER S ACROSS THE
PENINSULA APPEARS MORE LIMITED. WHILE A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A STRONGER CELL OR TWO...IT
APPEARS ATTM THAT MARGINAL RISK/5% PROBABILITY MORE ACCURATELY
REFLECTS REMAINING THREAT. THUS...SLIGHT RISK/15% WIND PROBABILITY
WILL BE REMOVED ATTM.
Chtulhu..
Quoting 184. sar2401:

Yep, that pretty much sums it up. It does look like on the WV loop that some at least not as moist air got entrained in the circulation all the way back by Texas. The front is also starting to weaken and wash out, so there's not the energy from the front they thought would be there this morning. Still, as you say, things are so unstable that almost anything should set off thunderstorms. It's really frustrating be sitting here with dewpoints in the high 70's with a temperature in the mid-90's and PW of over two inches and watch nothing happen. We obviously still don't have a handle on every aspect of how the atmosphere behaves in these situations. I suspect we still won't when you're getting ready to retire.


Quoting 192. Patrap:



I would watch the BOC.
235. flsky
They're forecasting low 80s in ponce inlet tomorrow. In that it's been in the mid 90s lately, it's an extremely welcome change.


Quoting 226. ATLsweather:

Thank you cold front, 68 light breeze, feels like fall.  Perhaps a warm up later, but to all in the SE, hope you are getting this, in Atlanta it sure feels fine.

Quoting 228. beell:

This morning's Day 1 Outlook from the SPC.

...NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY...
PROXIMITY OF SRN STREAM JET WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL...WSW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CLOUDS/EXISTING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...BUOYANCY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY PW AOA 2.00 INCHES. SATELLITE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND 40 KT MID-LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY FOSTER SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DMGG GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER NRN AND CNTRL FL.


SPC usually is pretty modest in how it words events unless something is a serious severe threat. Also, when they say storms though, am assuming they are referring to stronger cells and not all convective rains necessarily. With that said, I pointed out that official pops and qpf were so high because models were in agreement of such. Also there were similar much weaker fronts with even weaker upper support that produced significant coverage of heavy convection leading to flooding multiple times in much of the west coast of FL. In fact, the only reason this event wasn't expected to be a major flood threat is due to it's quick progression. Otherwise there probably would have been another flood watch. And luckily for the forecasters, they didn't issue a flood watch, which I'm sure they are mighty glad they didn't, lol.
Quoting 232. ATLsweather:

Chtulhu..



??
Quoting 230. sar2401:

Quite true. I think this is going to be the case for the rest of the week as well. I sure don't see a major rain event in the offing. You always get 0.77" of rain from nothing storms. That kind of rain up here would be a major event.


Seems like its been a pretty boring year for thunderstorms and heavy rain in your neck of the woods, heck that's basically been true for the whole southeast except Central FL lol.
It is strange that low in the far eastern Atlantic is well to the south. It is also very wide. Is that the same NHC is mentioning? It does not appear to my eyes to be moving WNW.
Quoting 226. ATLsweather:

Thank you cold front, 68 light breeze, feels like fall.  Perhaps a warm up later, but to all in the SE, hope you are getting this, in Atlanta it sure feels fine.

55 here wet raw east ne wind nice better than the heat warming after Monday

241. flsky
That's why there are so many accidents in L.A.when it rains.

Com
Quoting 182. CosmicEvents:


I'll never forget the one time I was totally out of control on the road. 40 years ago driving a 1975 Trans-Am, nice brakes, suspension, tires, etc. Driving 75 in the left lane of I-75 south...west of North Miami. A light to moderate rain started on a partly sunny day after no rain in 2 weeks or so. I lost traction instantly without warning and proceeded directly into the thankfully extra-wide(100 yards or so) grassy flat median between the 2 sides of the 12 lane Interstate...doing 2 or 3 or 4 360's and coming to a rest. The trooper who pulled up immediately after said he saw the whole thing and it was a case of hydroplaning on a road where a little rain brought up the oil in the asphalt. I drove away and made it to Hialeah in time for the early daily double. I remember I sat next to Pete Rose(drunk) in the Flamingo Bar that day.
Quoting 238. Jedkins01:



Seems like its been a pretty boring year for thunderstorms and heavy rain in your neck of the woods, heck that's basically been true for the whole southeast except Central FL lol.
Yes, it is, Jed, old buddy. I'm beginning to think you and Vis0 have figured out a way to have his ml-d device siphon off all the rain from the rest of us and have it only get to you. I figure the next thing coming is some kind of extortion scheme, where we all have to chip in for your college cost and get a broadband connection for Vis if we ever want to see a thunderstorm and heavy rain again. Yep, I think you two are up to something...
Quoting 238. Jedkins01:



Seems like its been a pretty boring year for thunderstorms and heavy rain in your neck of the woods, heck that's basically been true for the whole southeast except Central FL lol.


Lots and lots of lightning here in the Orlando Metro just an hour ago with very heavy rains. Picked up 1.23" here and there is no where for anymore rain to go. Models are showing another surge of heavy rains around 3am to 4am.
244. beell
Quoting 236. Jedkins01:



SPC usually is pretty modest in how it words events unless something is a serious severe threat. Also, when they say storms though, am assuming they are referring to stronger cells and not all convective rains necessarily. With that said, I pointed out that official pops and qpf were so high because models were in agreement of such. Also there were similar much weaker fronts with even weaker upper support that produced significant coverage of heavy convection leading to flooding multiple times in much of the west coast of FL. In fact, the only reason this event wasn't expected to be a major flood threat is due to it's quick progression. Otherwise there probably would have been another flood watch. And luckily for the forecasters, they didn't issue a flood watch, which I'm sure they are mighty glad they didn't, lol.


Good pont, Jed (in bold). Not every drop of rain comes from a supercell!

There's this.

Local Weather 8:52 PM EDT on September 12, 2015
Light Rain
East Haven, Connecticut
71 F
Light Rain
nice first fall cold front well define on ir



from here on out
it warms then cools
and gets cooler each time after
the less warmer
fall is moving in

Quoting 226. ATLsweather:

Thank you cold front, 68 light breeze, feels like fall.  Perhaps a warm up later, but to all in the SE, hope you are getting this, in Atlanta it sure feels fine.

that is big cold front it will make anything go out to sea..
Quoting 206. Patrap:

Storm Rainfall Totals





That looks about right......found about 3-4 inches of water in the horse feeder buckets this afternoon.....most of it from about the noon-time gulley washer we had
Quoting 243. StormTrackerScott:



Lots and lots of lightning here in the Orlando Metro just an hour ago with very heavy rains. Picked up 1.23" here and there is no where for anymore rain to go. Models are showing another surge of heavy rains around 3am to 4am.


Surprised that 1.23" in Florida would cause "major flooding". Around here even with wet grounds that amount of rain would cause only some ponding on the roadways and poor drainage areas.
the jet says it all bring on fall
251. SLU
look for tropical systems to shift up into more seasonal regions as cv/mdr comes to a close

close to home it is sw to ne it goes
253. JLPR2
Seems to be coming together around 8-9N, 30W, at least that's what the vort maps indicate.

Mid level:
Quoting 249. Bucsboltsfan:



Surprised that 1.23" in Florida would cause "major flooding". Around here even with wet grounds that amount of rain would cause only some ponding on the roadways and poor drainage areas.


It did we have a creek that feeds a river nearby. Too much rain here since June with now 35" since June 1st.
On this date 27 years ago Hurricane Gilbert made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.


Gilbert approaching Jamaica on September 12, 1988.

Link
Quoting 239. juracanpr1:

It is strange that low in the far eastern Atlantic is well to the south. It is also very wide. Is that the same NHC is mentioning? It does not appear to my eyes to be moving WNW.

Models, models!!!
Quoting 252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

look for tropical systems to shift up into more seasonal regions as cv/mdr comes to a close

close to home it is sw to ne it goes
Will be very Wilma esc coming from Carib. to FLA
Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:



It did we have a creek that feeds a river nearby. Too much rain here since June with now 35" since June 1st.


Any homes get flooded? Pasco country got hit hard last month, they were under a flood warning for about 3 weeks.
Tropical Warning Information


No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

By CDO.JTWC.fct@navy.mil (JTWC CDO) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Sep 13, 2015.
There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time.

No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings

By CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sep 13, 2015.
As of Sun, 13 Sep 2015 01:45:01 GMT

Quoting 255. GTstormChaserCaleb:

On this date 27 years ago Hurricane Gilbert made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.


Gilbert approaching Jamaica on September 12, 1988.

Link



Crossed Grand Cayman about 20 miles to the south as a Cat 5, was just a Summer Squall compared to Ivan even though we had gusts here at 157 mph! You see Gilbert was moving fast, Ivan basically stalled over us for bout 30 hours!
Quoting 260. stormpetrol:



Crossed Grand Cayman about 20 miles to the south as a Cat 5, was just a Summer Squall compared to Ivan even though we had gusts here at 157 mph! You see Gilbert was moving fast, Ivan basically stalled over us for bout 30 hours!
You guys have had some bad storms through the years, y'all are thick skinned for riding it out on that island, hats off to y'all for that, good infrastructure with the houses in the Cayman Islands as well.
Another hyped up FL rain event. Got about .50" today....lol

10:00 PM EDT Saturday 12 September 2015




Condition:

Light Rain

Pressure:

29.8 inches

Tendency:

rising

Visibility:

15 miles

Temperature:

54.0°F

Dewpoint:

50.5°F

Humidity:

88%

Wind:

N 12 mph
It looks like the tropics in the Atlantic are on simmer tonight. I wonder if anything will come of that pot brewing in the BOC?
Quoting 265. scott39:

It looks like the tropics in the Atlantic are on simmer tonight. I wonder if anything will come of that pot brewing in the BOC?
have too see as the front pulls away if some thing will form on the tale never know I guess
Quoting 239. juracanpr1:

It is strange that low in the far eastern Atlantic is well to the south. It is also very wide. Is that the same NHC is mentioning? It does not appear to my eyes to be moving WNW.


Good observation- I couldn't agree more...I think there is a pre-disposition or obsession to list systems as moving WnW to NW -when in reality they be actually going rather westerly or even a tad south of due west. Certain models seem to have this bias as well which then further influences the general perceived forecast track/ predicted directions. Some over- reliance on models is to be blamed here at times though... Its a wait and see game at this point, however I do agree that it does not appear to be a WNW direction at present.
Quoting 243. StormTrackerScott:



Lots and lots of lightning here in the Orlando Metro just an hour ago with very heavy rains. Picked up 1.23" here and there is no where for anymore rain to go. Models are showing another surge of heavy rains around 3am to 4am.


Yeah lightning tracker sure showed a heck of a lot of lightning in your area. I guess you caught the tail end of vort max given how activity was more widespread and more intense in your area. BTW what you had was also expected for the Tampa Bay area but activity fizzled there. As I said earlier, flow and progression of this system is too fast to allow several inch accumulations. But despite cells moving 40-50 mph, a quick 1-3 inches was what was expected. Considering how fast those cells blew through Orlando ,you must have had some pretty darn intense rainfall rates to get over an inch in that little time. Some areas saw more.

There is some additional 500 mb vort downstream in the gulf, so I would think with the front getting closer combined with some more energy and night instability over the water, that the Tampa Bay area could be woken up early in the morning to thunder and down pours. Not guaranteed, but it seems reasonable that coastal areas could see heavy stuff in the AM.
Quoting 266. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

have too see as the front pulls away if some thing will form on the tale never know I guess
I see now it shows no model support. It's like you said though, you never know when it comes to the BOC and the tail of a front coming through it.
270. JRRP
271. SLU
Quoting 267. NatureIsle:



Good observation- I couldn't agree more...I think there is a pre-disposition or obsession to list systems as moving WnW to NW -when in reality they be actually going rather westerly or even a tad south of due west. Certain models seem to have this bias as well which then further influences the general perceived forecast track/ predicted directions. Some over- reliance on models is to be blamed here at times though... Its a wait and see game at this point, however I do agree that it does not appear to be a WNW direction at present.


The WNW movement may be the general track they expect over the next 5 days and not necessarily its current movement.
May those who lost their lives to hurricane Gilbert 27 years ago. Rest in peace.
Quoting 270. JRRP:


93L and 94L will be designated by Monday night.
I am surprised there is not an Invest on the AOI near Africa.
Quoting 255. GTstormChaserCaleb:

On this date 27 years ago Hurricane Gilbert made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.


Gilbert approaching Jamaica on September 12, 1988.

Link
. It did so much damage. I can still remember the hardship.
276. JRRP
Quoting 273. HurricaneAndre:

93L and 94L will be designated by Monday night.
Quoting 274. scott39:

I am surprised there is not an Invest on the AOI near Africa.

me too
Quoting 276. JRRP:


me too
This is the first time in about a month ( I'm just guessing) that we don't have a floater on the satellite or model tracks to look at. This has to change soon! :)
278. SLU
Quoting 276. JRRP:


me too


I suspect it's because they haven't been able to pinpoint a COC to run the models off yet since it's been an elongated mess all day. Should be an invest overnight with the recent consolidation near 8n 32w
Seems something is afoot a little further west around 10N 40-45W.

Quoting 279. ProgressivePulse:

Seems something is afoot a little further west around 10N 40-45W.


Quoting 278. SLU:



I suspect it's because they haven't been able to pinpoint a COC to run the models off yet since it's been an elongated mess all day. Should be an invest overnight with the recent consolidation near 8n 32w
It is one the most elongated ones I have seen this year .
Seems to be some strong convective activity around 10N bet 40-45W is this activity associated with the tropical feature the nhc mentioned, in its tropical outlook advisory .
It looks like on satellite that the AOI West of Africa is merging with a wave in front of it.
I saw that flooding occured in Dominica once again... while we only got 2 to 8mm

Anyways, heavy rains also occured in the N Leewards yesterday, with radar estimations between 150 (6") and 200mm (8") in Barbuda (data from Meteo France) !!!
284. Relix
That low is really low if its forming down there. Might be throwing the models off? Maybe not that much north as they expect? Or is that a given by now?
Nothing on the surface maps. Wave in front and behind, nuttin between 40-45.

Rare picture of Hurricane Luis crossing the N Leewards

Quoting 286. CaribBoy:

Rare picture of Hurricane Luis crossing the N Leewards




20 years ago luis was a beast past by to our north on st.thomas but still caused some minor damage
Hurricane Frederic slammed into Mobile, Al. On this date in 1979. Wind gauge instruments were broken. Dauphin Island reported a 145mph wind gust.
Quoting 288. Gearsts:




I don't like the GFS fishes
Quoting 290. CaribBoy:



I don't like the GFS fishes
If something forms it should move WNW.
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics discussing the absolute latest with the many areas of interest. Although I didn't mention it in a seperate paragraph or seperate special feature section, I suppose the organizing ITCZ area near 40 to 45W could become yet another area of interest (or alternatively it will merge with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave...creating a broad east-west ITCZ low pressure spin that takes a while to consolidate).
GFS starts the system to far north on satellite its much further south
0.95" at my house today, and I am very grateful that the later rounds of storms held together. Hoping for more over the next few days. Was getting a bit dry around here after less than an inch in 12 days. This even after getting around 4" on Aug 29th and 5" on Aug 31st. The areas around Orlando that I have seen look like we've had an abundance of rain lately, but I haven't seen any flooding whatsoever, personally.
Quoting 291. Gearsts:

If something forms it should move WNW.


So.. it better forms west of 50W xD
The GoM disturbance seems to be/trying to separate from the front(??)



It's also looking pretty well stacked.



This albeit being over massive shear..
Quoting 286. CaribBoy:

Rare picture of Hurricane Luis crossing the N Leewards




Hey Carib, where did you get this?
298. JRRP
Quoting 297. LemieT:



Hey Carib, where did you get this?
I searched the image with Google from Chrome and it gave this link.
Quoting 297. LemieT:



Hey Carib, where did you get this?
Tremendous hurricane the winds were incredible in eastern Puerto Rico, after that one, came Marilyn which her eye went very close to eastern Puerto Rico and touching the Puertorican Island of Vieques..
Quoting 268. Jedkins01:



Yeah lightning tracker sure showed a heck of a lot of lightning in your area. I guess you caught the tail end of vort max given how activity was more widespread and more intense in your area. BTW what you had was also expected for the Tampa Bay area but activity fizzled there. As I said earlier, flow and progression of this system is too fast to allow several inch accumulations. But despite cells moving 40-50 mph, a quick 1-3 inches was what was expected. Considering how fast those cells blew through Orlando ,you must have had some pretty darn intense rainfall rates to get over an inch in that little time. Some areas saw more.

There is some additional 500 mb vort downstream in the gulf, so I would think with the front getting closer combined with some more energy and night instability over the water, that the Tampa Bay area could be woken up early in the morning to thunder and down pours. Not guaranteed, but it seems reasonable that coastal areas could see heavy stuff in the AM.


Ha, that just happened to me Jed. Woke up at 2:30 AM to some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen. Only lasted a a few minutes though. Now I can't get back to sleep. Ugh.
Quoting 294. HurrMichaelOrl:

0.95" at my house today, and I am very grateful that the later rounds of storms held together. Hoping for more over the next few days. Was getting a bit dry around here after less than an inch in 12 days. This even after getting around 4" on Aug 29th and 5" on Aug 31st. The areas around Orlando that I have seen look like we've had an abundance of rain lately, but I haven't seen any flooding whatsoever, personally.


There is flooding ongoing on some of the Lakes. Casen point Cranes Roost park in Altamonte Springs as waterlevels are over the boardwalk atleast they were a few days ago. Here in my area Lakes are above Full Pool and are now overflowing.
Quoting 301. tampabaymatt:



Ha, that just happened to me Jed. Woke up at 2:30 AM to some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen. Only lasted a a few minutes though. Now I can't get back to sleep. Ugh.


That's how it was here earlier. Just intense brief periods of rain lowering vis close to zero.
Quoting 300. HuracanTaino:

Tremendous hurricane the winds were incredible in eastern Puerto Rico, after that one, came Marilyn which her eye went very close to eastern Puerto Rico and touching the Puertorican Island of Vieques..


Marilyn passed about 25 miles NE of Barbados as a fledgling CAT1 hurricane. We had some corn, sugarcane and other crops growing out front. When we woke up in the morning, every plant was flat.


doom!!
azores low pressure looks close to designation. also that big clump of storm east is the leewards could be a drought breaker if they come over the islands


Looks to be an active week for FL with more flooding concerns.
Quoting 301. tampabaymatt:



Ha, that just happened to me Jed. Woke up at 2:30 AM to some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen. Only lasted a a few minutes though. Now I can't get back to sleep. Ugh.


It came through here a little earlier in the night. The thunder/lightning was so violent. I was trying to go to sleep with bombs exploding over the house. I picked up 1.47" of rain from the storm.
I'm also up to 6.45" for the month. It's been stormy here just S.E. of town (Fort Myers) this month.
The city has only had 3.82" so far (which is about normal) this month.
Quoting 283. CaribBoy:

I saw that flooding occured in Dominica once again... while we only got 2 to 8mm

Anyways, heavy rains also occured in the N Leewards yesterday, with radar estimations between 150 (6") and 200mm (8") in Barbuda (data from Meteo France) !!!

If the data from Meteo France are right, there are no deads over there with theses amounts (6" or 8"). Antigua and Barbuda are also in a dry season. So these amounts can come in St Martin and St Barth's, and our tanks will be full !
Very heavy rains coming yet again to the NW side of Orlando.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 131146 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent A small low pressure system located about 975 miles southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph over the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Minimal shower and thunderstorm activity is continuing in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several days. However, brief periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds are still possible across portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next few days days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

new invest now!!
Cooler temps up in north Florida this morning, wish they were down here on the east central Florida coast. Looks like October out there on Sat pics.


red x now!!
This one storm moving into lake County has a well defined hook echo. Maybe some funnel clouds with this one.

Another storm north of New Port Richey has rotation too. Storms with lots of rotation across C FL this morning.
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:

Another storm north of New Port Richey has rotation too. Storms with lots of rotation across C FL this morning.
its look like a funnel clouds to me!! the storm moving fast to
Guess the NWS service in Melbourne is changing it's tune a little on the forecast since yesterday was a busted forecast here in Melbourne.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE
TRANSITIONING INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE AS ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM WANES.

THOUGH THE AREA REMAINS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY...OVERALL DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
STORMS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE ON
THE WANE...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP UPDRAFT STRENGTH
IN CHECK. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
WILL TEND TO PUT A CAP ON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. WITH THAT
SAID...MID-LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A 30-40 KNOT JET...AND SOME
VORTICITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS TODAY. GIVEN THE FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT STORM MOTION TO
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST TODAY...TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT FORCING ALOFT TO
WANE QUICKLY TONIGHT...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER.

MON-MON NIGHT...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL LIFT N IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT LIFTS INTO N
FL...IT WILL BRIDGE THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT JOINS UP
WITH THE STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACRS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY.

MIXED BAG WRT PRECIP POTENTIAL. ENHANCING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE A THIN POCKET OF COOL TEMPS ARND H60 THAT WILL STEEPEN THE
AVG MID LVL LAPSE RATES THRU THE H70-H50 LYR TO BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM...
AND AS STEEP AS 7.5-8.0C/KM THRU THE H70-H60 LYR. MID LVL ANALYSIS
SHOWING A BAND OF ENHANCED VORTICITY ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL TROF THAT WILL ADD MID LVL INSTABILITY TO THE EQUATION...
WHILE A 40-50KT H30-H20 JET STREAK TRAILING FROM THE DEPARTING TROF
PROVIDES WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. FINALLY...WHILE IT WILL WASHOUT ON
MON...THE REMNANT TROF OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN
PENINSULA...ADDING A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY TO THE
NRN CWA.

DETRACTING FROM THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY
H85-H50 LYR THAT DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL DRAW UP FROM THE
NW CARIB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATED PWAT VALUES HOLDING BTWN
1.8"-1.9"...BUT MOST OF IT TRAPPED ABV H50 AS AVG DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS INCREASE TO BTWN 5-7C. INDEED...LATEST SAT PICS SHOW NO
LACK OF MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF OVER THE
GOMEX...MUCH OF WHICH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVER N FL. FURTHERMORE...WHILE SOME COOLING IN THE MID LVLS IS
INDEED PSBL...COOLER TEMPS ARND H70 ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH DEEP LYR
INSTABILITY AS REGIONAL H85-H50 LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM.

AFTER SEEING ON MANY OCCASION A HIGH POP FCST FAIL TO VERIFY DUE TO
LACK OF SFC HEATING FROM EXTENSIVE MID/UPR DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP POPS AOB 50PCT. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO REASSESS THE
STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.

TUE-SAT...
CONSISTENT WX PATTERN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE CONSOLIDATED
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE W ATLC...GENERATING AN E/SE FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. A SMALL RIBBON OF DRIER AIR MAY ADVECT IN
FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES WED-FRI...BUT OVERALL BOTH GFS/ECMWF
MODELS SHOW RATHER HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS WILL
CONTINUE ABV AVG FOR MID SEP.

ERLY FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR HIGHEST DIURNAL COVERAGE...
WHILE THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SCT
NOCTURNAL SHRAS. WILL CARRY 40-50PCT POPS THRU THE PD. THE INCREASED
MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG...M80S NEAR THE COAST
AND U80S INLAND. MIN TEMPS ABV AVG DUE TO THE SAME MODIFYING EFFECTS
OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...M/U70S AREAWIDE.

&&

Appears to be as low hanging cloud base with this supercell to my NW. HAVE A GOOD VIEW OF IT HERE FROM APOPKA.

Really surprised there's no warning on this storm.

only had light rain to about 8pm then it came down in buckets ended up with 1". e cen fl.
GEOS-5 is still calling for Ex-Grace to mix with the troff over FL & pull together a weak, wet low on Thursday. Looking weaker and a hair more west than before, as expected.









no rain here in miami,fl!!!
Tropical Development Possible Across the Atlantic This Week Having just passed the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic, a couple tropical waves will be monitored for development this week across the basin.
The first tropical wave, located to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, is expected to slowly organize through the week and could become the next system in the Atlantic. "This wave has a decent pocket of convection that will have opportunities to develop a defined low-level circulation."
The jet stream is expected to dig southward across the central Atlantic through midweek and cause this system to steer northward over the open waters of the Atlantic, thus preventing any impacts to the United States.
"The only true factor holding back this convection at the moment is its proximity to the equator, where there is not enough atmospheric spin to encourage the formation of low pressure," Duffey said. "This system will move to the west-northwest over the next few days away from the equator."
A second wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa into Monday, which could develop over time.
This system, which looks to track farther south than the first wave, may take a track more west to west-northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic.
It is too early to determine whether this second feature would be any threat to land.
Both of these systems will track over warm waters in the eastern Atlantic, but battle moderate wind shear. This shear will likely cause these systems to develop slowly through the week.
Wind shear is defined as the change in wind speed and/or direction with height. Greater changes in wind speed or direction leads to stronger wind shear, which inhibits tropical development.
RELATED:
Quoting 325. islander101010:

only had light rain to about 8pm then it came down in buckets ended up with 1". e cen fl.

I had nearly an inch overnight.
Hope all the rain clears Tampa by this afternoon for the Bucs and Titans game. Go BUCS!
I ended up with nothing in my area, guess you had to be in the right spot!
Quoting 329. Skyepony:


I had nearly an inch overnight.


we need to watch this low at 80% in five days!!
333. ryang
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 51m51 minutes ago
Latest CFSv2 ENSO forecast suggests La Nina right around the corner.The 2016 Hurricane season could be interesting
AL, 93, 2015091312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 345W, 20, 1012, LO

Snipped from the Miami NWS Disco...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
326 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY
KEEPING A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
FOCUS THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA...BRINGING IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

500 MB TEMP WILL ALSO BE COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO AROUND -7
TO -8C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

Link
The new invest in the Atlantic is still further south than all the models, and its still moving due west. Will this invest ever get pulled north?
338. ryang
Hopefully 93L can develop into a hurricane and give us some good ACE as it goes out to sea.
Quoting 324. StormTrackerScott:

Really surprised there's no warning on this storm.




Just got nailed in NW Tampa, any time it rains heavily now it leads to flooding in my neighborhood, the ground just can't take any more water.
Quoting 326. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 is still calling for Ex-Grace to mix with the troff over FL & pull together a weak, wet low on Thursday. Looking weaker and a hair more west than before, as expected.









What is ex Grace at this point? Looks to be completely dissipated. The only folks still acknowledging Grace are on this blog.
Link

The ITCZ seems quite active right now!
The cold front is making quite a progress south, look at the 50s and 60s behind it, a nice touch of Fall weather. Enjoy your day everyone! And Go Bucs!

343. beell
2 Prelim EF0's from yesterday.


click image for yesterday's storm reports
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING PHOENIX AZ - KPSR 552 PM MST SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING PHOENIX AZ - KPSR 503 PM MST SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING FLAGSTAFF AZ - KFGZ 451 PM MST SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBUQUERQUE NM - KABQ 538 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBUQUERQUE NM - KABQ 533 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 218 PM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL - KTBW 507 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 455 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSONVILLE FL - KJAX 259 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015
345. beell
Quoting 340. tampabaymatt:



What is ex Grace at this point? Looks to be completely dissipated. The only folks still acknowledging Grace are on this blog.


346. beell
Quoting 345. beell:






Sar pretty much summed up why there is a yellow x on that map perfectly yesterday.
Quoting 340. tampabaymatt:



What is ex Grace at this point? Looks to be completely dissipated. The only folks still acknowledging Grace are on this blog.
Ex-Grace is really just a weak wave this morning. Any parts of ex-Grace there were part of the wave have clearly lost identity, but wave is continuing slowly west. What the wave is able to do in the Bahamas and Florida remains to be seen, and is predicated on the wave holding together until it gets to that point.
Quoting 340. tampabaymatt:



What is ex Grace at this point? Looks to be completely dissipated. The only folks still acknowledging Grace are on this blog.


Some models have suggested that the tropical wave that was Grace will keep enough of a signature to redevelop convection in the Bahamas and be enough of a disturbance as to form a weak low with the trough over Florida. So it's another potential for Florida to get deluged again. It's the tropical wave that was Grace and this is what it might do. And yes, it's near complete dissipation. Just a feature at this point and NHC has a yellow +0/+0, which means they have the same questions. No chance to form anything worrisome, but a chance that convection could re-fire over the next day or two.
Quoting 341. weatherbda:

Link

The ITCZ seems quite active right now!
There's certainly a lot of convection in the ITCZ. In terms of producing any storms, it's really pretty quiet at this point.
Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:

Very heavy rains coming yet again to the NW side of Orlando.




Man Tampa/St Pete's is about to get slammered, and according to tbmatt, again.
352. beell
Quoting 347. tampabaymatt:



Sar pretty much summed up why there is a yellow x on that map perfectly yesterday.


All that may be true. Your original statement was "The only folks still acknowledging Grace are on this blog." The yellow "x" from the NHC indicates otherwise.

A weak wave, yes. If Grace had never appeared on scene and there was a tropical wave moving through the northern Caribbean-with a possibility of entering the gulf, a few of us would be watching...calmly...anyway...
It's hard to see, but there's a real skinny waterspout in the picture. This was just a little earlier this morning off shore Fort Myers (Sanibel Island). That's the Sanibel Light house in the picture.
There should really be a drinking game for the adjectives used to describe rain in Florida..
Quoting 348. sar2401:

Ex-Grace is really just a weak wave this morning. Any parts of ex-Grace there were part of the wave have clearly lost identity, but wave is continuing slowly west. What the wave is able to do in the Bahamas and Florida remains to be seen, and is predicated on the wave holding together until it gets to that point.








The three major models, including the usually crazed CMC. See any signs of a low over Florida created by a weak tropical wave from the Caribbean? It's usually a bad idea to hang your hat on one experimental model.
Quoting 353. Sfloridacat5:

It's hard to see, but there's a real skinny waterspout in the picture. This was just a little earlier this morning off shore Fort Myers (Sanibel Island). That's the Sanibel Light house in the picture.

I can barely see it. That's a pretty high cloud base to be producing a waterspout. Was it actually on the water surface at that point?
Looking to be maybe hours of training storms over St. Pete. Not good. NWS radar for St. Pete shows potential for up to two inches of rain today. Hopefully this line will sag South of the Tampa/St. Pete area as the day goes on.
Quoting 356. sar2401:

I can barely see it. That's a pretty high cloud base to be producing a waterspout. Was it actually on the water surface at that point?


The picture is a good distance from the waterspout. I've seen a lot of similar waterspouts around here. I would assume it is down on the water and very weak. From the picture it's impossible to say for sure. Someone on the west side of Sanibel Island would have gotten a much better look at the waterspout.
Quoting 357. DeepSeaRising:

Looking to be maybe hours of training storms over St. Pete. Not good. NWS radar for St. Pete shows potential for up to two inches of rain today. Hopefully this line will sag South of the Tampa/St. Pete area as the day goes on.
yes pouring rain here in Largo also,been that way for awhile now
Quoting 340. tampabaymatt:



What is ex Grace at this point? Looks to be completely dissipated. The only folks still acknowledging Grace are on this blog.
NWS is mentioning a Low if the gulf later in the coming week also.
361. beell
Quoting 355. sar2401:









The three major models, including the usually crazed CMC. See any signs of a low over Florida created by a weak tropical wave from the Caribbean? It's usually a bad idea to hang your hat on one experimental model.


A weak inverted trough is about all one can find in the GFS at 700 mb, sar. Generally, the best level for tracking a wave signature in a model. Possibly enough for a blob.

The circulation is evident in the 850mb streamline ECMWF chart you posted. Yes?


Wave is in the ICU, near death, convection all but gone, just about gone for good; but the NHC just want to see if convection fires for some reason today. Even then, shear has increased North and East of Cuba, and any convection would likely only meet it's death the next day as this weak wave would head back under moderate to high shear.
Quite a bit of action developing down here in my area. It's been raining off and on all morning here near Fort Myers.
Quoting 337. Camerooski:

The new invest in the Atlantic is still further south than all the models, and its still moving due west. Will this invest ever get pulled north?
Looks like the models have the position about right considering it's not even a storm yet. considering every model agrees on a northerly turn and OTS before 40w, and have for a couple of days, that looks like a pretty good bet.
NWS Tampa:.................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND OF THE
NATURE AND SUN COASTS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS TIME.
Quoting 361. beell:



A weak inverted trough is about all one can find in the GFS at 700 mb, sar. Generally, the best level for tracking a wave signature in a model. Possibly enough for a blob.

The circulation is evident in the 850mb ECMWF chart you posted. Yes?



Yes, possibly enough for a blob coming from the Gulf. That's rather different than a 1008 mb low in the same time frame as being shown on the GEOS-5. Yes?
Wave in question has fired convection North of the Dominican Republic in the best conditions it's going to have. Has until 75West to get it together. Surely not, but the NHC haven't taken their eyes off of it and neither should we.
368. SLU
Rapidscat is real junk.

Quoting 360. LargoFl:

NWS is mentioning a Low if the gulf later in the coming week also.
The low in the Gulf will have zero relation with ex-Grace however. If it forms, it will be a product of the existing trough in the Gulf.
370. beell
Quoting 366. sar2401:

Yes, possibly enough for a blob. That's rather different than a 1008 mb low in the same time frame as being shown on the GEOS-5. Yes?


"See any signs of a low over Florida created by a weak tropical wave from the Caribbean?"

Let me edit my response to your question and I will retreat!



Yes.

Sorry C/FL. & S/FL. weather in the Panhandle is perfect low 60's hi 82 just blue sky. This is my favorite time of the year!!
Quoting 330. hurricanewatcher61:

Hope all the rain clears Tampa by this afternoon for the Bucs and Titans game. Go BUCS!
Already happening. Should be nice early fall weather for the game.

What about the tail of that front in the BOC looks like a nice blow up. If it stays for a day or two that's were your Gulf low will form.
Quoting 370. beell:



"See any signs of a low over Florida created by a weak tropical wave from the Caribbean?"

Let me edit my response to your question and I will retreat!



Yes.




Yes Sar, your knowledge can be quite intimidating. When we first met years ago, I though your were the Google king. I obviously know now that's not the case. You have a great knowledge base. Like when you cleared up that disturbance in the SW Gulf question yesterday for me; glad your here.
What a washout here today in Orlando .51" so far as a nice moderate rain continues.
Quoting 370. beell:



"See any signs of a low over Florida created by a weak tropical wave from the Caribbean?"

Let me edit my response to your question and I will retreat!



Yes.


I see signs of lower pressure in the Gulf, not over Florida. If you run the model, you'll see it doesn't get over Florida. And no matter how you parse it, none of the models show a 1008 mb low actually over Florida. Now I will retreat.
I'm a relative ametuer compared to you guys and girls. But has anyone noticed on Visable Sat the spin around 46 west and 10 north? If so what do you think of it's chances?
Looking more and more like we get our next named storm today.
Quoting 374. DeepSeaRising:



Yes Sar, your knowledge can be quite intimidating. When we first met years ago, I though your were the Google king. I obviously know now that's not the case. You have a great knowledge base. Like when you cleared up that disturbance in the SW Gulf question yesterday for me; glad your here.
I'm just an amateur. I don't know why I should be viewed as intimidating. I just look at the same data that's available to everyone. I'm often wrong, as Beell will point out. I can take it. My ego isn't crushed by not a reading chart right. I do think I'm right often enough that what I write might be more valuable than the hope and a prayer forecasts I often see here.
A re-curving fish hurricane coming perhaps with more action in the Southwest Gulf, should be an interesting week ahead for peak season. And will a wave finally survive with convection through Haiti/DR to make it to the Bahamas?
Quoting 379. sar2401:

I'm just an amateur. I don't know why I should be viewed as intimidating. I just look at the same date that's available to everyone. I'm often wrong, as Beell will point out. I can take it. My ego isn't crushed by not reading chart right. I do think I'm right often enough that what I write might be more valuable than the hope and a prayer forecasts I often see here.


Got a good laugh out of the last sentence.
382. Wrass
Hey guys!! Sw fla guy 3 years reverse pattern. West to east what's up any ideas??'Hello!!!
I see the troll is back
Quoting 377. NortheastGuy:

I'm a relative ametuer compared to you guys and girls. But has anyone noticed on Visable Sat the spin around 46 west and 10 north? If so what do you think of it's chances?
I think you're looking at an active area of ITCZ. Some of the turning involved in the blooming of convection can look like rotation, but there's no signs of it on the charts. This is what the NHC has to say -

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N29W TO 10N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 10W-15W...FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 15W-19W...AND FROM 07N-
13N BETWEEN 41W-47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 20W-50W.
Quoting 377. NortheastGuy:

I'm a relative ametuer compared to you guys and girls. But has anyone noticed on Visable Sat the spin around 46 west and 10 north? If so what do you think of it's chances?


Talk about another cool feature. Our next storm designation, the invest behind, will feed off this strong disturbance and likely stop it from developing itself. But who knows, this season is getting very interesting. Fred last week was wild, just feeling like this September is going to show off. Gulf West to East system is my biggest worry going forward through the season.
Quoting 384. sar2401:

I think you're looking at an active area of ITCZ. Some of the turning involved in the blooming of convection can look like rotation, but there's no signs of it on the charts. This is what the NHC has to say -

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N29W TO 10N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 10W-15W...FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 15W-19W...AND FROM 07N-
13N BETWEEN 41W-47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

Quoting 385. DeepSeaRising:



Talk about another cool feature. Our next storm designation, the invest behind, will feed off this strong disturbance and likely stop it from developing itself. But who knows, this season is getting very interesting. Fred last week was wild, just feeling like this September is going to show off. Gulf West to East system is my biggest worry going forward through the season.


What you have pointed out makes pretty good sense. I was just going by what I saw on the Visable Sat presentation. Not the convection at 10 north and 46 west
Quoting 378. DeepSeaRising:

Looking more and more like we get our next named storm today.


93L still has a ways to go before getting classified. Tomorrow at the earliest I say
Vis now a quarter mile or less here in Longwood as it is raining extremely hard.

390. FOREX
Quoting 373. gulfbreeze:

What about the tail of that front in the BOC looks like a nice blow up. If it stays for a day or two that's were your Gulf low will form.
Is the shear still screaming in the Gulf??
Raining so hard the gutters can't hold all the water and they are overflowing and bending in the middle.
Quoting 390. FOREX:

Is the shear still screaming in the Gulf??


Yes, but that is because of the front. If the low can detach from the front as it moves out of weakens, the shear will decrease
1.07" in 11 minutes and its still coming down fiercely.
31 years ago today, Wilmington narrowly escaped Cat-4 Diana. Instead it looped and came back as a Cat-2 on September 13, 1984.

395. vis0
If not posted yet, Tiny BUT well protected (centered amongst many cloud)  spin at 47W 11N west of Antilles
Quoting 393. StormTrackerScott:

1.07" in 11 minutes and its still coming down fiercely.


Do you have your own weather station?
Quoting 396. Hurricanes101:



Do you have your own weather station?


Just a digital rain guage. Rain is letting up now back to moderate. Now over 47" for the year which is average for the whole year.
Quoting 368. SLU:

Rapidscat is real junk.




Not RapidSCAT's fault. That's the fault of the ISS's orbit. It'll hit it on the next orbit.
Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:



Just a digital rain guage. Rain is letting up now back to moderate. Now over 47" for the year which is average for the whole year.


I was curious because none of the stations in and around Longwood are even close to 1.07 inches of rain
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Link
I see two storms forming. Can you spot where.
Quoting 399. Hurricanes101:



I was curious because none of the stations in and around Longwood are even close to 1.07 inches of rain


1.66" now for today
Quoting 402. StormTrackerScott:



1.66" now for today


None of the weather stations are even close to that *shrugs*
Quoting 402. StormTrackerScott:



1.66" now for today


I have 1.66" here (past 24 hours).
What's funny is Page Field (our official reporting station in Fort Myers) has reported no rain today. I've had at least 3-4 nice cells move through my location today S.E. of the city.
anyone else some turning at 23N, 96.5w?
More heavy rain here just south of Fort Myers.
I'm at 7.52" for the month and 2.54" past 24 hours.
Quoting 382. Wrass:

Hey guys!! Sw fla guy 3 years reverse pattern. West to east what's up any ideas??'Hello!!!
83 was the same...nothing different here.