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El Niño Heads for Potential Record Strength; Japan Picks up Pieces from Etau’s Rains

By: Bob Henson 6:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2015

NOAA’s monthly update on El Niño, released on Thursday, held no big surprises: we are on the upswing of one of the strongest El Niño events--very possibly the strongest--of the past 65 years of recordkeeping. As of last week (see PDF), sea-surface temperatures across a key part of the eastern tropical Pacific called Niño3.4 were running 2.1°C above the long-term average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Anomalies (departures from average for this time of year) in sea-surface temperature across the northern and eastern Pacific show the distinct band of warmth in the eastern equatorial Pacific characteristic of El Niño, as well as several other large areas of unusual warmth over the Northeast Pacific Ocean. An excellent article in BayNature explains the persistent “Blob” in the Northeast Pacific and how it might intersect with El Niño in the coming winter. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Every El Niño is different, but the strongest events have some very distinct characteristics. Now that the atmosphere and ocean are in the mutually reinforcing pattern typical of strong El Niños, the course of the next few months is relatively predictable. Niño3.4 anomalies (departures from seasonal average) should continue to rise until peaking sometime around December or January, then subside early in 2016. (In its monthly update, NOAA gives 95% odds that El Niño will continue through the northern winter of 2015-16.) As evident in Figure 1, the odds of neutral conditions will rise dramatically toward spring, but this could represent the beginning of a transition toward La Niña. As the ocean rebounds from strong El Niño conditions, La Niña--a cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific--often, but not always, follows. (See the historical ENSO database for examples.) Since we’re now in the second winter of El Niño conditions (albeit borderline conditions in 2014-15), it’s very unlikely that we’ll see El Niño continue past next spring. I would expect to see gradually rising odds of La Niña in upcoming forecasts as they extend further into 2016. If a La Niña were to develop by mid-year, it would favor a more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2016.


Figure 2. Probabilities of El Niño (red bars), neutral (olive bars), or La Niña (blue bars) conditions for each three-month period from August-October 2015 to April-June 2016, based on a forecaster-consensus outlook produced by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. The thin red, olive, and blue lines show the long-term climatological likelihood of El Niño, neutral, or La Niña conditions for each period. Image credit: IRI.


A surge in El Niño strength this month?
In his WU blog, Steve Gregory observed earlier this week that temperatures in the Niño3.4 region appear to have risen by 0.3°C over a period of a week, with the rise not yet fully reflected in NOAA’s weekly El Niño updates (issued each Monday). Steve points out that the Niño3.4 values can vary quite a bit from one week to the next, and NOAA forecasters caution us not to obsess about minor week-to-week changes. That said, it’s worth noting that a weekly change of 0.3°C would fall in the top 5-10% of weekly changes observed from 1990 to mid-2015. If sustained, such a rise would also push the current El Niño event closer to record values.

NOAA’s weekly Niño3.4 values are based on a series of short-term analyses of sea-surface temperature called OISST (optimum interpolation SST). The OISST values include satellite-based measurements that can introduce biases when folded in with older data. To produce one-month and three-month statistics for the Niño3.4 area, NOAA uses a separate data set called the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) to rank and classify El Niño events on a monthly and trimonthly basis. This monthly dataset goes back to 1854 and uses statistical techniques to fill in data gaps. The most recent three-month values, called the Oceanic Niño Index, were at 1.2°C above the long-term average for June through August. This is slightly below the JJA value of +1.4 observed during the pacesetting El Niño event of 1982-83. However, the 2015-16 event may now be overtaking 1982-83 in terms of its current strength, an outcome suggested by a range of international computer models (see Figure 3 below).

For more on the implications of El Niño for this winter, see our blog posts on the typical impacts for the U.S. in general and what might happen in the Northeast in particular. Jeff Masters will have a forthcoming post on the potential impacts beyond U.S. borders.


Figure 3. Forecasts by a suite of international computer models tracked by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have gotten progressively stronger on the 2015-16 El Niño. For the above outlooks, issued in August and valid in November, the model average (shown in the bottom bar) indicates a Niño3.4 anomaly (departure from the seasonal average) of just above 2.8°C for the month as a whole. If these model runs through winter 2015-16 were to prove accurate, the current El Niño would be the strongest in records going back to 1950. The red and blue shading denotes values above or below 0.8°C, which represent the threshold for El Niño and La Niña, respectively, as used by Australian forecasters. NOAA uses 0.5°C as the threshold, since lesser values can still produce U.S. impacts. More information on each models can be found here. Image credit: BOM.


Japan still recovering from floods, landslides associated with Tropical Storm Etao
Damage continues to mount in central Japan as a result of a persistent band of heavy rain that caused landslides and flooding over the area. The rainband formed on the southeast flank of Tropical Storm Etao as the storm moved northward across the island of Honshu, as the southerly inflow encountered Honshu’s high mountains. The city of Ikari recorded 21.69" (551 mm) of rain in just 24 hours, and the popular destination of Nikko received 26.30" (668 mm) from Sunday into Thursday (thanks go to Maximiliano Herrera for the Ikari rainfall info.) The 24-hour total at Ikari was larger than the city’s previous highest 48-hour total in more than 35 years of recordkeeping. The prolonged rains led to the collapse of a flood berm and the inundation of several areas, including parts of the Tokyo suburb of Joso (population 60,000). At least 3 people are dead and 23 missing, and at least 99 landslides have been reported. Nick Wiltgen at weather.com has much more on the flooding from Etao.


Figure 4. Local residents wait to be rescued on the roof of their home in a flooded area in Joso, Ibaraki Prefecture, on September 10, 2015. The Japanese city about 30 miles (50 km) northeast of Tokyo was flooded when Kinugawa river burst its banks, destroying homes and cars as desperate residents waited for help, and as thousands of people were ordered to evacuate. Image credit: Jiji Press/AFP/Getty Images.


Japan’s destructive rains from Etao may been influenced by the presence of weakening Tropical Storm Kilo to the southeast (see Figure 5). Although Kilo had weakened greatly over the last several days, it still had a large circulation and moisture envelope, and some of that moisture could have been ingested by the rainband located between the two storms. Along these lines, a recent open-access paper in the journal Advances in Meteorology documents the enhancement of a rainband in eastern China associated with Typhoon Fitow in early October 2013. Modeling of the event with and without the presence of Typhoon Danas, located well to the east of Fitow, suggests that moisture from Danas more than doubled the amount of rainfall produced in northern Zhejiang province, from about 220 mm (8.66”) in the non-Danas experiment to the 500-plus mm (more than 19 inches) that was actually observed as well as produced in the model when Danas was included. It’s also possible that the Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones influence each other’s motion, contributed to Etau’s slowdown in forward speed, which also enhanced rainfall. (Thanks to Naoko Kitabatake, Japan Meteorological Agency, for pointing out the potential interactions between Kilo and Etau.)


Figure 5. Using imagery from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite with RealEarth software, this image shows Tropical Storm Etao northwest of Japan; the much larger circulation of Tropical Storm Kilo well to the east; and the intense rainband over eastern Honshu island (center). Image credit: UW-Madison CIMMS.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The Pacific is enjoying a rare moment of quiet in the tropical cyclone realm: both Kilo and Etau have expired as tropical cyclones, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The only other system of current interest is Invest 99E, which should remain weak as it spins well south of Mexico. The Atlantic is also relatively quiet, with Tropical Storm Henri zipping northeastward with top sustained winds of just 40 mph. Henri may nick southeast Newfoundland on Saturday as a weak post-tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center is tracking two areas with minimal odds of development--one near the northern Lesser Antilles and the other well southwest of the Azores. A wave that recently came off Africa is not expected to evolve significantly over the weekend, although NHC gives it 50-50 odds of developing into a tropical cyclone between Sunday and Wednesday. This system is worth monitoring later next week as it moves into the central tropical Atlantic.

Have a fantastic weekend, everyone--and happy birthday, Jeff Masters!

Bob Henson

Hurricane El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok henson!
Thanks for the update.
thanks mr henson......while i'll grant you this event is stronger than i thought it would be...becoming the strongest......i'm still not on board with that...don't worry...i'll eat my crow over in the corner
It does appear CPC will raise Nino 3.4 to 2.4C Monday which would be the highest reading ever in early September.

The headline cannot remain unremarked. What, exactly, is "Peaces?" Do you mean "Pieces?"
Quoting 5. win1gamegiantsplease:

Peaces?


Should be Pieces.
Also with now 8C anomalies we are ahead of sub surface temps compared to this time in 1997.

Quoting 4. StormTrackerScott:

It does appear CPC will raise Nino 3.4 to 2.4C Monday which would be the highest reading ever in early September.




This will be one interesting winter.
up to a 50% chance now............................................... .......
Quoting 9. FunnelVortex:



This will be one interesting winter.


2.4C and this El-Nino hasn't even peaked yet. The peak is likely still 2 to 3 months away.
The longer the new African disturbance remains weak and disorganised, the more it moves west and the more it becomes a threat to the lesser antilles.
Interesting post from the ENSO blog (Aug 24, 2015) on extreme El Nino events and comparing central Pacific (C) and eastern Pacific (E) regions of focused warming.

16. JRRP
Quoting 15. hydrus:




Euro is just raining away on FL next week. Looks very similar to September 2014 pattern wise.
Quoting 466. sar2401:

But the fact remains that south Florida and the Panhandle remain well below normal rainfall. A slight improvement is not what we need to see. For example, the stalled frontal boundary and easterly flow is not likely to affect the Panhandle much at all and obviously won't help south Florida. The only thing that's really going to help is a tropical system off a stalled front out in the Gulf. That's not in the cards right now.


Actually, drought has already made decent improvement in a short time given the magnitude of drought in place in NW and especially SE FL, and with a strong El Nino arriving this winter. Much of the moderate and severe drought notably shrunk in SE FL, and the moderate drought in NE has completely been removed. Drought has a good chance of disappearing in all those regions over the long term.
Now, of course because it was a significant accumulated drought, it will take a while to improve, but it's on it's way, and the future looks good for further improvement.

There really isn't any reason to be pessimistic about the drought situation in these areas. The fact that a large portion of the state is at or above average is also a sign that it's not large scale weather patterns that are the reason for a the drought but odd local patterns, usually a combination of pure chance that caused a wet weather pattern to not be as wet for the drought regions even though such regions experienced the same patterns that brought heavy rain to Central FL.

The scary type of droughts are the ones where large scale features are the cause of drought for a large extended region, and don't seem to show any signs of change. This has not been the cause of drought in SE FL and NW FL.
the tale of ex grace should be moving through the leeward islands early tonight
The Blob is a symptom of an unusual atmospheric pattern, not a cause. An annoying symptom if you don’t like a hot humid house in San Francisco, but one that won’t dramatically outlive the far more villainous culprit in California’s drought: “The Ridge.”

“Even if we’re underestimating the role of this Blob, most model simulations say it’s going away this winter anyway,” Swain says. “Not surprising; all the indications at this point are that The Blob didn’t exist independently of the ridge in the first place. And the things that did lead to the ridge in the first place aren’t really there anymore.”
Quoting 19. Jedkins01:



Actually, drought has already made decent improvement in a short time given the magnitude of drought in place in NW and especially SE FL, and with a strong El Nino arriving this winter. Much of the moderate and severe drought notably shrunk in SE FL, and the moderate drought in NE has completely been removed. Drought has a good chance of disappearing in all those regions over the long term.
Now, of course because it was a significant accumulated drought, it will take a while to improve, but it's on it's way, and the future looks good for further improvement.

There really isn't any reason to be pessimistic about the drought situation in these areas. The fact that a large portion of the state is at or above average is also a sign that it's not large scale weather patterns that are the reason for a the drought but odd local patterns, usually a combination of pure chance that caused a wet weather pattern to not be as wet for the drought regions even though such regions experienced the same patterns that brought heavy rain to Central FL.

The scary type of droughts are the ones where large scale features are the cause of drought for a large extended region, and don't seem to show any signs of change. This has not been the cause of drought in SE FL and NW FL.


Jed whats concerning is in 1997 it was dry before El-Nino's rains kicked into full gear come late October. This year its the opposite with the top 10 wettest Summer on record from Tampa to Orlando.
From the previous blog:

Quoting 595. dartboardmodel:

I don't understand how the NHC comes up with a "0" percent chance of Grace redeveloping. Just looking at what has transpired on the satellite pictures the last two days they have to admit in their minds that something is breathing out there. They overestimated Erika and are underestimating the the possibility of Grace redeveloping.

Grace -- or rather, what's left of it -- is just an amplified tropical wave producing disorganized convection. Trade winds are accelerating ahead of the system, making it tougher for the disturbance to acquire a well-defined and closed circulation, and upper-level winds are westerly at 30 knots. No reliable model regenerates Grace. Why should it have more than a ~0% chance of development?
Have a fantastic weekend, everyone--and happy birthday, Jeff Masters!
I'll second that, thanks Bob....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days



for the 1st time in moths there nothing going on in the E PAC and 99E got droped
Watching the Euro complete its run is concerning if you live in FL as once the rain begins next Tuesday it appears to be here for many days with likely big totals like we saw in July & August.

Quoting 20. islander101010:

the tale of ex grace should be moving through the leeward islands early tonight

Yep. And the tail should follow soon after.

:):))
13 its the g storm we are talking about. ex is an entity should be listed as a vigorous tw.
It's raining in my area but not showing up on radar
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:



Jed whats concerning is in 1997 it was dry before El-Nino's rains kicked into full gear come late October. This year its the opposite with the top 10 wettest Summer on record from Tampa to Orlando.


Yeah definitely, having done some student work at the NWS in Ruskin this summer, that was a common conversation I had with the meteorologists there. They were definitely discussing the concern associated with this issue. Usually drought does arrive prior to strong El Nino events, but the fact that drought was limited to only far SE FL and NW FL while much of Central FL is near average to well above average is cause for concern.

Now, as I discussed with them. A strong El Nino only increases the probability of above average rains, but doesn't guarantee it by any means. So it's a wait and see deal at this point.
Yup. It's a blob.

DATE ISSUED: Friday, September 11, 2015 TIME ISSUED: 09:00 AM


A HEAVY RAINFALL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN Friday, September 11, 2015


Moisture and instability associated with a westward moving tropical wave; the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace, is presently moving across the Eastern Caribbean. Consequently, unsettled weather can be expected across St. Maarten during the early part of Friday.
As a result, conditions will gradually deteriorate over our area with increased cloudiness, showers, gusty winds and possible isolated thunderstorms. Some of these showers may be heavy at times and localized flooding are likely over sections of the island. Residents and motorists are urged to be vigilant and exercise caution as streets may become flooded.


FORECASTER: Gordon
Definitions:
A Special Bulletin is issued for weather events that are unusual, cause general inconvenience or public concern (requiring the attention and action of fire department and police authorities) and cannot adequately be described in a regular weather forecast.


A Precautionary statement means that there is a slight possibility (< 30% chance) of occurrence within the next 8 to 24 hours.
A Heavy Rainfall Watch is an announcement when heavy rainfall is evident within the following hours.
A Heavy Rainfall Advisory is an announcement when heavy rains are about to occur or occurring already, but are not strong enough to require a warning .
A Heavy Rainfall Warning is an announcement when heavy rains are about to occur or are occurring already.
Good evening. I'm just coming home and had a look at the news ...

Crane Crashes into Saudi Mosque, Killing Dozens
NYT, By RICK GLADSTONESEPT. 11, 2015
A large construction crane crashed into the Grand Mosque in Saudi Arabia's holy city of Mecca on Friday as it was packed with worshipers during a heavy rainstorm, and the authorities there said at least 87 people had been killed. ...
The cause was not immediately clear, but the Al Jazeera television network said the crane had fallen in the midst of a severe rainstorm, suggesting weather may have played a role. ...


Video of the rain storm.



Source.
Quoting 26. StormTrackerScott:

Watching the Euro complete its run is concerning if you live in FL as once the rain begins next Tuesday it appears to be here for many days with likely big totals like we saw in July & August.




It's been weird how poorly the GFS has done with much of these patterns that brought heavy rain to the state. I think there was only one major event this summer that the GFS actually depicted well in terms of upper features and QPF. The euro however has done excellent at showing signals of such patterns in the long term that turn out to be true for the most part.

I noticed the GFS does absolutely terrible at forecasting precip when it comes from advection from water to land, it doesn't just have this issue with FL but any where there is a pattern where heavy rain forms over water and moves onshore. It tends to create rain hole gradients near coastal areas where rainfall should actually be heaviest. Many times the GFS showed 10 inches offshore in the gulf for example but would show less than an inch rain near the coast.

A recent example of this has been in SE TX and LA. This event brought heavy rains to SE TX and LA but the GFS showed this completely unrealistic cutoff with basically no rain at all near coastal areas right next to massive 7-8 inch qpf offshore even though all synoptic setup features would tell you it would move onshore. And it did. The concerning thing is that the WPC seems to actually let this major model error by the GFS impact their forecast, which is bothersome to me. Because it should be obviously apparent that it's a model error and not in any way a good forecast.
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:



Jed whats concerning is in 1997 it was dry before El-Nino's rains kicked into full gear come late October. This year its the opposite with the top 10 wettest Summer on record from Tampa to Orlando.


You don’t need to spend much time in the Tampa Bay area to see that above average rains this “dry” season will have a significant negative impact. Many rivers and creeks have been in flood stage for months and the ground is so saturated that any moderate amount of rainfall is leading to flooding issues. Parts of the upper Tampa Bay trail have been washed out and closed down because of flooding and structural issues. I could go on and on, but with 65.81” inches of rain at my home already this year, I’ll be on guard all “dry” season long.
Quoting 30. Jedkins01:



Yeah definitely, having done some student work at the NWS in Ruskin this summer, that was a common conversation I had with the meteorologists there. They were definitely discussing the concern associated with this issue. Usually drought does arrive prior to strong El Nino events, but the fact that drought was limited to only far SE FL and NW FL while much of Central FL is near average to well above average is cause for concern.

Now, as I discussed with them. A strong El Nino only increases the probability of above average rains, but doesn't guarantee it by any means. So it's a wait and see deal at this point.


That is correct indeed but I would go further and say the pattern now is beginning to take on a El-Nino look and the effects are only going to increase as we move thru October.

Quoting 34. Jedkins01:



It's been weird how poorly the GFS has done with much of these patterns that brought heavy rain to the state. I think there was only one major event this summer that the GFS actually depicted well in terms of upper features and QPF. The euro however has done excellent at showing signals of such patterns in the long term that turn out to be true for the most part.

I noticed the GFS does absolutely terrible at forecasting precip when it comes from advection from water to land, it doesn't just have this issue with FL but any where there is a pattern where heavy rain forms over water and moves onshore. It tends to create rain hole gradients near coastal areas where rainfall should actually be heaviest. Many times the GFS showed 10 inches offshore in the gulf for example but would show less than an inch rain near the coast.

A recent example of this has been in SE TX and LA. This event brought heavy rains to SE TX and LA but the GFS showed this completely unrealistic cutoff with basically no rain at all near coastal areas right next to massive 7-8 inch qpf offshore even though all synoptic setup features would tell you it would move onshore. And it did. The concerning thing is that the WPC seems to actually let this major model error by the GFS impact their forecast, which is bothersome to me. Because it should be obviously apparent that it's a model error and not in any way a good forecast.


GFS does this alot across the Yucatan too. With suspect precip gradients from ocean to land.

Example below whereas the Euro has these areas filled in with 5" to 10" amounts.

12Z GFS




FWIW:
St. Croix, V.I.

Current wind speed E 14mph, temp 85F Barometer 29.87 and falling sharply. No rain so far, no convective clouds, light overcast.

Station Location: 17°44'19"N 64° 41'49"W 400' ASL
Equipment: Davis Vantage Pro2, Anemometer 20' AGL
Quoting 24. PedleyCA:

Have a fantastic weekend, everyone--and happy birthday, Jeff Masters!
I'll second that, thanks Bob....

Yeah, happy birthday, doc! And thanks for the new blog, Bob.

The Guardian: Japan's floods: aerial video footage
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henri, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland.

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
near the northern Leeward Islands in association with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several
days. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
for the next couple of days while the wave moves westward at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

2. A tropical wave located between west Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave by early next week while it moves generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

3. A small low pressure system located about 900 miles southwest of
the Azores continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


number 2 is up to 50% in five days
Models are in agreement with another MDR storm.The Euro,Ukmet,Navgem and CMC all have it looking to approach hurricane status while the GFS shows a disorganized low.I'm betting 10 dollars that (once again) Shear and dry air rip it to shreds before it gets to the Antilles.Details will be clear when we get closer in time..We'll be leaving for the Baltimore in two hours and then by this by this time or tomorrow we'll be on our ship!
Front is almost hereeeee

Quoting 42. tornadodude:

Front is almost hereeeee




Outflow boundary
Hey, Bob, the Bay Nature site's contents are HTTPS--appears to be pay-walled. I'm using Chrome right now.
Well, hey - ya can't blame the GEM for tryin'...
46. vis0
.

more important matters where at hand
The Latest Satellite IR picks of Henri show a sort of dual LLCC. It's definitely reminiscent of Erika when she was land-falling in the islands on that fateful and tragic day of the 27th of August. Prolonged study of the available satellite & especially radar loops appear to confirm a more southerly Low level center of circulation at the time of impact especially for the island of the Commonwealth of Dominica, which amassed extremely intense convection and thunderstorms clusters that subsequently gave rise to the astronomical rainfall totals- triggering unprecedented flooding and flash flood damage on the island nation of Dominica. Again eerily similar to Etau's impact on Joso City in North east Japan- an accumulation of about 18.5 inches was recorded at my site here in the Nature Island, Dominica. Its definitely a more sombering and crucial indication of the deadly risks and threats associated with tropical storms. Case in point -Tropical storm Allison in Houston, Tx- 2001, that say its name being officially retired.
Erika's has unofficially been retired already in Dominica...

On the upside of things- extreme levels of hyper vigilance to the threat and associated impacts of Tropical systems have been generated across the island of Dominica- unfortunately in a reactive rather than pro-active manner due in no small way to the deadly passage and aftermath of Tropical storm Erika. Of course, while I maintain that the original failure to issue a warning or at least a watch for the island nation of Dominica- during the approach of Erika was inexcusable, and down right unprofessional & unacceptable- since the ordinary/ casual weather observer/ blogger could have easily perceived the impending; likely deadly impacts -nevertheless, its good to see that this time around pre-cautionary but extremely prudently decided & advised Flash flood warnings have been issued island wide today.
It remains to be seen whether or how soon storm/ hurricane amnesia will resettle once again among even the so called meteorological experts and forecasters on the island & by extension the Windward and Leeward islands
region.

May God continue to Richly Bless us All!
TS Henri


AOI 1/Ex Grace


Uhh wherever AOI 2 went


And the third one..kinda
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

Models are in agreement with another MDR storm.The Euro,Ukmet,Navgem and CMC all have it looking to approach hurricane status while the GFS shows a disorganized low.I'm betting 10 dollars that (once again) Shear and dry air rip it to shreds before it gets to the Antilles.Details will be clear when we get closer in time..We'll be leaving for the Baltimore in two hours and then by this by this time or tomorrow we'll be on our ship!
Have a good time! Nice day today for it.
Quoting 42. tornadodude:

Front is almost hereeeee




Man you really want fall to happen...me too
My life changed for the better today, and my article selections are done. Good luck to you all.
Quoting 30. Jedkins01:



Yeah definitely, having done some student work at the NWS in Ruskin this summer, that was a common conversation I had with the meteorologists there. They were definitely discussing the concern associated with this issue. Usually drought does arrive prior to strong El Nino events, but the fact that drought was limited to only far SE FL and NW FL while much of Central FL is near average to well above average is cause for concern.

Now, as I discussed with them. A strong El Nino only increases the probability of above average rains, but doesn't guarantee it by any means. So it's a wait and see deal at this point.


Yes, a strong El Niño does not guarantee epic rains for Florida. Yes, probabilities increase. However, I believe the El Niño of 72-73 was strong and yet temps in FL were above normal and rains were nothing to get crazy about. Also, look at all the development in the east Atlantic. We've never seen that in a strong El Niño year. Every event is different so I would be hesitant to guarantee anything.
Quoting 48. JrWeathermanFL:

TS Henri


AOI 1/Ex Grace


Uhh wherever AOI 2 went


And the third one..kinda



AOI2 was raised to 50% chance.
Thanks Dr.Henson! Hopefully El Nino, will give alot of much needed rainfall here in the Southeast.

Have a fantastic weekend, everyone--and happy birthday, Jeff Masters!

Happy Birthday Dr.Masters!! Thank you for starting this blog and teaching us about the weather and climate!



very warm water off the east coast!!
Quoting 54. FunnelVortex:



AOI2 was raised to 50% chance.


Of reappearing? :P
From wunderground: Clear skies, 84 degrees. Occasional thunderstorms to begin at 5:30 PM.

It is pouring right now.
Quoting 45. Kowaliga:

Well, hey - ya can't blame the GEM for tryin'...



Yea, who needs that other Carolina anyway...
Quoting 43. FunnelVortex:



Outflow boundary


Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>16 2-174-175-112000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WI SE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-B OSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL- MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.NOW...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 3 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH BUT SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP A HALF OF AN INCH.

OTHERWISE...A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH
.
TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 90S.
Quoting 57. JrWeathermanFL:



Of reappearing? :P


Of development

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015


2. A tropical wave located between west Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave by early next week while it moves generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
I want to thank all the bloggers here for depicting the parade of potential tropical cyclone tracks in or near the MDR of the Atlantic. I could remember how most forecasts were saying that the Main Development region in the tropics was going to be a TC graveyard. Yes to a degree as shear and dry air is very prevalent. But this 7-14 day period coming up sure does look active in the tropics. Thank you all and have a great weekend.
The TW just east of the Leewards is somewhat healthy; however, the associated rain and convection is rather weak at this time. I don't expect much from it here in PR, unless this system develops a rather strong convection by the moment it passes over us in PR.
Good reading on the El Nino! Thank you for the update Mr Henson! Also, A very Happy Birthday to Dr Masters!
65. SLU
The EURO wants to end the Cape Verde season with a bang

Quoting 65. SLU:

The EURO wants to end the Cape Verde season with a bang


Wasn't Danny the bang?
Quoting 44. JimSpriggs:

Hey, Bob, the Bay Nature site's contents are HTTPS--appears to be pay-walled. I'm using Chrome right now.


Hmmm...I'm not having any trouble getting to it on Chrome or Firefox.

Bob
Quoting 63. juracanpr1:

The TW just east of the Leewards is somewhat healthy; however, the associated rain and convection is rather weak at this time. I don't expect much from it here in PR, unless this system develops a rather strong convection by the moment it passes over us in PR.
It should develop convection tonight.
Quoting 46. vis0:

line13..."2015?"



Thanks for the catch! I'm on travel in the DC area and was finishing this post while in Union Station when the entire building was hastily evacuated because of a shooting. Needless to say, I didn't get to proof this post as carefully as usual...

Cheers,
Bob
Canadian model now has a full fledged hurricane strike in 8 days..hope it doesn't verify..
Quoting 70. LargoFl:

Canadian model now has a full fledged hurricane strike in 8 days..hope it doesn't verify..

Yeah, the U.S. is still reeling from those two hurricanes strikes that the CMC correctly forecast earlier this week.

/s

Its solution is not supported by any of the reliable models. There's nothing to worry about.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1136 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-121545-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
1136 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.FLOODING...THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL...SOME
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE LARGER RIVERS
AND STREAMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.MARINE...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS LIKELY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
FOLLOWING BEACHES...JOBOS IN ISABELA...PUERTO NUEVO IN VEGA
BAJA...PINONES IN LOIZA...AND BALLENA IN GUANICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALSO...THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WINDS...FLOODING...WATERSPOUT
AND RIP CURRENTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.

Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

Models are in agreement with another MDR storm.The Euro,Ukmet,Navgem and CMC all have it looking to approach hurricane status while the GFS shows a disorganized low.I'm betting 10 dollars that (once again) Shear and dry air rip it to shreds before it gets to the Antilles.Details will be clear when we get closer in time..We'll be leaving for the Baltimore in two hours and then by this by this time or tomorrow we'll be on our ship!

Enjoy your trip!!!
Came thru S C IL Tdude. Surprise popup on backside has kicked the dew pts back above 60 temporarily, was down to 57 b4 they popped up from the 59 I reported previously. Winds are straight N to NNW now and had a 25 gust, though died down some now. Pressure holding at 29.97" Sun back out but some dark clouds still N. Temps down to 66 & double checked dew pt, it's back down to 59 already:)
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
GRACE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AND THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


Lots of rain on the way for FL.


no way i do not see this happern


we need to watch!!

Remnants of HENRI Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT43 KNHC 112033
TCDAT3

REMNANTS OF HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

Henri is no longer a tropical cyclone. Visible images clearly show
that Henri lacks a well-defined center, with scatterometer and
satellite data also suggesting the circulation has degraded into a
southeast-to-northwest oriented trough. The scatterometer did show
a small area of 35-kt winds, so that intensity is kept.

The remnants of Henri are expected to trek northeastward then
eastward over the North Atlantic and should transition into an
extratropical low on Saturday. Future information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service Ocean Prediction Center...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 40.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF HENRI
12H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2015

...HENRI DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 58.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Henri were located near
latitude 40.0 North, longitude 58.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). An increase
in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast by Sunday with some additional acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening is expected with the remnants.

Winds of gale force extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .
Quoting 73. RavensFan:


Enjoy your trip!!!
Thank you.Looks like it'll be rainy in southern Florida.Our first stop will be Miami then New Providence Bahamas.
Quoting 75. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Discussion...

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
GRACE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AND THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE COULD REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT
THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.


Certainly bares watching, pretty impressive the wave is so intact with the shear it's facing. Shear will let up as this waves nears Puerto Rico, and the shear outlook has improved greatly from yesterday. Could be very interesting if convection is still firing when and if this reaches the Bahamas. Haven't seen a seed reach the Bahamas yet this year, could be a more interesting weekend than many anticipated.


wind shear need to come down soon
In my neck of the woods we are seeing short, cold convective, low-topped showers that are under the radar. We are also having cold north winds, 56 degree highs, and frost advisories popping up.

This is a very mid-fall-like pattern. I do not think it signifies an early winter, but it does signify a very variable and unpredictable fall and winter. Last time I saw this pattern in September was 2011.
NWS Miami says X-Grace is a strong tropical wave..now suppose she redevelops instead of florida..UP the coast?..
WU Forecast is calling for rain in my area Monday and Tuesday. I'm firewalled at work, so I'm curious if there's any model support for this?
We'll have to see if the NHC changes their mind on Ex- Grace's chances.

As of the 2pm update:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
near the northern Leeward Islands in association with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several
days. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
for the next couple of days while the wave moves westward at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Upper-level winds are not expected to be
favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several
days. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

the x is here becauseits next to land with heavy rain
Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:

We'll have to see if the NHC changes their mind on Ex- Grace's chances.

As of the 2pm update:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
near the northern Leeward Islands in association with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several
days. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
for the next couple of days while the wave moves westward at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

I wouldn't exactly hold my breath on ex-Grace..... just has a little more shear of 30 knts to get past, then conditions should become more favorable...
Shear over ex Grace is trending down :

Quoting 87. TimSoCal:

WU Forecast is calling for rain in my area Monday and Tuesday. I'm firewalled at work, so I'm curious if there's any model support for this?


Slight chance
Monday
A 20 percent chance of rain after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 86.
Monday Night
A chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Tuesday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Tuesday Night
A chance of rain, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Wednesday
A slight chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of rain. Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Sun back out in S C IL has temp back up to 70, but dew pt now down to 55. N-NNW winds picking back up to mid teens. July weather last weekend, Oct. this weekend. Everyone have a good weekend!!
Nice.

Quoting 95. hydrus:

Nice.




Is that satellite showing the effects of El Niño or is it the polar jet dipping down?
Quoting 87. TimSoCal:

WU Forecast is calling for rain in my area Monday and Tuesday. I'm firewalled at work, so I'm curious if there's any model support for this?


Thanks to #91, I was able to deduce a good URL and find this beautiful frame.

Quoting 92. MahFL:

Shear over ex Grace is trending down :



Trending down? You can see ex-Grace losing more and more convection as time passes. Shear is high (30-35 knots). We in PR could get some rain with fingers crossed...
Quoting 85. FunnelVortex:

In my neck of the woods we are seeing short, cold convective, low-topped showers that are under the radar. We are also having cold north winds, 56 degree highs, and frost advisories popping up.

This is a very mid-fall-like pattern. I do not think it signifies an early winter, but it does signify a very variable and unpredictable fall and winter. Last time I saw this pattern in September was 2011.
Whereabouts?
It is apparent that if we can get some rain from ex-Grace it will be from that tail of humidity to its south than from the wave itself as is forecasted for this TW to move WNW to NW eventually, according to the jet of wind from the through. .
Quoting 96. Bucsboltsfan:



Is that satellite showing the effects of El Niño or is it the polar jet dipping down?
This air mass is coming from Northern Canada. I believe there is some Arctic air with this system

Quoting 87. TimSoCal:

WU Forecast is calling for rain in my area Monday and Tuesday. I'm firewalled at work, so I'm curious if there's any model support for this?

Progs are showing the mid/upper level low due west of SF today will open up and associate with the larger low over the CONUS which will yank in the remnant low level moisture of LInda that would otherwise meander out to sea. Looks like this will be strictly a SoCal event, if it happens.

The current satellite shows a southeast midlevel flow over the state and convective clouds popping over the Sierra and, even over the coast ranges closer to the Bay Area, but radar shows nothing as far as ppt yet.
From the blog post:
"The most recent three-month values, called the Oceanic Niño Index, were at 1.2°C above the long-term average for June through August. This is slightly below the JJA value of +1.4 observed during the pacesetting El Niño event of 1982-83."

From what I see '82-83 El Nino had a June-July-August ONI value of +.8C while '87-88 and '97-98 El Ninos both had a JJA ONI value of +1.4C.

Link
105. 882MB
Just saw the Guadeloupe and Martinique radar and some of the islands are receiving a nice soaking. Dominica is getting a pretty good soaking as we speak, and has so for the past hour or so. Not good news for an island that has suffered a lot just recently from Erika. Heres the link to the radar imagery in case some of you guys don't have it.

Link
10 years ago today,..for the ones we lost on this date I lowered the Flag at the House that had flown since Katrina hit 14 days earlier in 2005.

My mood was terse, as it was day 14 post storm, and I would finally fly out Friday the 16th to my Family who Had evacuated to Memphis ahead of the storm, 19 days earlier..

But it was only 4 years post 911, and we wanted to show our due respect even among our own woes.

A few whiffs of normality

Photo from the Baltimore Sun Sept 11,2005 ,...by Monica Lopossay, story by Stephen Kiehl



NWS Miami has xGrace by the Bahamas sunday..Gem say wens as a low,blocked by that front till then.....
Quoting 103. stormpetrol:




TW from ex-Grace is more and more disorganized as time passes. The more active part is the tail to its south. May be the southern islands will get the worst of the convective bands associated with the through. you can observe the first rain bands which appear on the Doppler image just missed the US V.I as well as St. Croix and will miss PR and nearby PR islands.
FWIW Part 2 - St Croix

Wind E/SE 20 average, gusting to 30. Barometer rising from 29.92 No rainfall recorded in the last 24 hours.

Station Location: 17°44'19"N 64° 41'49"W 400' ASL
Equipment: Davis Vantage Pro2, Anemometer 20' AGL


111. SLU
Quoting 105. 882MB:

Just saw the Guadeloupe and Martinique radar and some of the islands are receiving a nice soaking. Dominica is getting a pretty good soaking as we speak, and has so for the past hour or so. Not good news for an island that has suffered a lot just recently from Erika. Heres the link to the radar imagery in case some of you guys don't have it.

Link


Just got a really intense thunderstorm that lasted an hour with intense rain and lightning.
112. MahFL
Quoting 98. juracanpr1:


Trending down? You can see ex-Grace losing more and more convection as time passes. Shear is high (30-35 knots). We in PR could get some rain with fingers crossed...


Just because shear trends down does not mean ex Grace will go up, other factors come into play.
Shear is now 20kts which is not too too bad.

NWS in Melbourne mentioned this as well back on Wednesday and was supposed to come across east central Florida. They haven't mentioned it anymore at the moment. Anyone know what the models are doing with this wave or ex-Grace?
Quoting 83. DeepSeaRising:



Certainly bares watching, pretty impressive the wave is so intact with the shear it's facing. Shear will let up as this waves nears Puerto Rico, and the shear outlook has improved greatly from yesterday. Could be very interesting if convection is still firing when and if this reaches the Bahamas. Haven't seen a seed reach the Bahamas yet this year, could be a more interesting weekend than many anticipated.
WATCH: Animation of Satellite Images Shows Smoke Plume From Mammoth Explosions in Tianjin, China

Everyone note the sea of smoke, and smog that black pimple has punched through When the port in Tianjin blew up.

I am reminded of when the SS Grandcamp blew up at Texas City, Texas in 1947. The worst industrial accident in US history. =

A 2-short-ton (1.8-metric-ton) anchor of Grandcamp was hurled 1.62 miles (2.61 km) and found in a 10-foot (3 m) crater. It now rests in a memorial park


The Grandcamp page on Wiki.

The two things in common , in 1947 in Texas zero regulations, in 2015 in China zero regulations, or just plain bribery.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Tropical Storm Henri, which has dissipated several
hundred miles south of Newfoundland.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
near the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands in
association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be favorable for redevelopment of this
system during the next several days. However, heavy rain and gusty
winds are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola as the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is
producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become favorable for some gradual development of this
wave by early next week while it moves generally westward across the
tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A small low pressure system located about 900 miles southwest of
the Azores continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven


About 16 hours old, but the SW Caribbean bears watching this time of the year once again!
Quoting 111. SLU:



Just got a really intense thunderstorm that lasted an hour with intense rain and lightning.
Check the Puerto Rico radar,,just a suggestion...

Will be back to Normal at the Airport Sunday (92/63) today was 95.8 here in Jurupa Valley, Airport was 97
IS it possible,what the CMC is seeing isn't grace but a new Low near the Bahama's next wenesday?
122. JLPR2


Come on Ex-Grace, fire up over PR.
Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:

We'll have to see if the NHC changes their mind on Ex- Grace's chances.

As of the 2pm update:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
near the northern Leeward Islands in association with the remnants
of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
favorable for redevelopment of this system during the next several
days. However, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
for the next couple of days while the wave moves westward at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
It's exactly the same on the 8:00. With Henri now gone, we have three yellow X's only one of which has any realistic chance of development in five days time.

NHC Cat Status: Very Drowsy
Quoting 121. LargoFl:

IS it possible,what the CMC is seeing isn't grace but a new Low near the Bahama's next wenesday?
Are the GFS or ECMWF showing a low in the Bahamas on Wednesday?
Quoting 122. JLPR2:



Come on Ex-Grace, fire up over PR.
All south for now.
Quoting 101. hydrus:

This air mass is coming from Northern Canada. I believe there is some Arctic air with this system




I would make the semantic argument that this is modified polar, not arctic air. The difference is that polar air is still fairly warm esp. in lower levels whereas arctic air is very cold at low levels. It's hard to get arctic air anywhere in early to mid September. It starts forming over the icecap in September (oops, not this century!) and over the continental interiors in October esp. if they get early snow; once it forms it forms fast over large areas.

Arctic air is isothermal or warms with height in the bottom 2000 meters because it's really cold at the surface. Modified polar air has steep lapse rates and is colder aloft than at the surface.

There was an outbreak of arctic air in September 1995 over the Northern U.S, triggered by Pacific tropical cyclone interaction with the midlatitued westerlies. THis threw up an enormous ridge over the west and a countering trough brought air from over the icepack and Siberia down to North America. Record early freezes in many midwestern locations resulted. The cold did not penetrate to the mid atlantic.. [ sigh! ]
Quoting 113. hurricanewatcher61:

NWS in Melbourne mentioned this as well back on Wednesday and was supposed to come across east central Florida. They haven't mentioned it anymore at the moment. Anyone know what the models are doing with this wave or ex-Grace?


No development from GFS, ECMWF, or NAVGEM
Quoting 109. juracanpr1:


TW from ex-Grace is more and more disorganized as time passes. The more active part is the tail to its south. May be the southern islands will get the worst of the convective bands associated with the through. you can observe the first rain bands which appear on the Doppler image just missed the US V.I as well as St. Croix and will miss PR and nearby PR islands.
Unfortunately so....
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago
Salinity values in the far N Atlantic have been dropping recently. Short-term blip or weakening thermohaline?
Quoting 125. Gearsts:

All south for now.
Same happened with ex Danny and weak Erika...
East Atlantic System To Watch
Another tropical wave has pushed off the African coast, and may develop in the week ahead
133. viman
Not working - Sorry :(
134. MahFL
Never known a season where so many remnants regained convection :

135. MahFL
Quoting 130. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago
Salinity values in the far N Atlantic have been dropping recently. Short-term blip or weakening thermohaline?


Does anyone know what that actually means in laymans terms ?
Quoting 135. MahFL:



Does anyone know what that actually means in laymans terms ?
Less active Atlantic and a mode change for the AMO to negative.
Quoting 135. MahFL:



Does anyone know what that actually means in laymans terms ?
Thermohaline Circulaion. Less salinity is tied to a decrease in the circulation. I'd suspect blip, since it's happened before.
Quoting 135. MahFL:



Does anyone know what that actually means in laymans terms ?


I know thermohaline refers to seawater density (which depends on salinity and temperature), this is a major component on the movement of water and not just wind patters. More so in deeper waters than near the continental shelf. So the question might be the upwelling/downwelling due to changes in density isn't as pronounced possibly instead of just a random variation or vice versa.
The mean 500mb Forecast from the GFS and EURO (ECMWF) model valid in ~8 Days There is truly excellent agreement between both of these models (and their ensemble members – not shown). The 500mb (~18,000’) zonal-like flow from the NORPAC across North America (NORAMER) belies the deep TROF’s that will be at their most amplified over the eastern US and near the West coast. With the mean, west-to-east flow across NORAMER, no significant cold air outbreaks is possible.
Quoting 134. MahFL:

Never known a season where so many remnants regained convection :




Agree. Very odd season. Who knows, when we wake up in the morning, GraceX may be 93L.
Quoting 126. georgevandenberghe:



I would make the semantic argument that this is modified polar, not arctic air. The difference is that polar air is still fairly warm esp. in lower levels whereas arctic air is very cold at low levels. It's hard to get arctic air anywhere in early to mid September. It starts forming over the icecap in September (oops, not this century!) and over the continental interiors in October esp. if they get early snow; once it forms it forms fast over large areas.

Arctic air is isothermal or warms with height in the bottom 2000 meters because it's really cold at the surface. Modified polar air has steep lapse rates and is colder aloft than at the surface.

There was an outbreak of arctic air in September 1995 over the Northern U.S, triggered by Pacific tropical cyclone interaction with the midlatitued westerlies. THis threw up an enormous ridge over the west and a countering trough brought air from over the icepack and Siberia down to North America. Record early freezes in many midwestern locations resulted. The cold did not penetrate to the mid atlantic.. [ sigh! ]
I agree about the modified polar, although there's still plenty of ice up north for real arctic outbreak as well. This blast just happens to originate in an area of cold but not much current ice in far northern Canada. Real Arctic air would drop me a lot further than the predicted low of 57 Sunday night. The front is making very slow progress through Alabama right now, with only skinny line of convection north of BIrmingham. The whole front is starting lose definition in terms of convection. Convection from earlier today is dissipating after giving me a grand total of nothing. In theory, the front could bring me some rain early Saturday morning. In reality, I think I'll get what I've gotten today.
Jeez, four posts got removed in succession? Uh-oh.

Quoting 143. sar2401:

I agree about the modified polar, although there's still plenty of ice up north for real arctic outbreak as well. This blast just happens to originate in an area of cold but not much current ice in far northern Canada. Real Arctic air would drop me a lut further than the predicted low of 57 Sunday night. The front is making very slow progress through Alabama right now, with only skinny line of convection north of BIrmingham. The whole front is starting lose definition in terms of convection. Convection from earlier today is dissipating after giving me a grand total of nothing. In theory, the front could bring me some rain early Saturday morning. In reality, I think I'll get what I've gotten today.


57 is where we're supposed to be Sunday night, can't wait for that [brief] change.
Quoting 130. Gearsts:


Salinity values in the far N Atlantic have been dropping recently. Short-term blip or weakening thermohaline?

May be due to ice melt? Just a guess. Brackish water conditions commonly occur when fresh water meets seawater.
Result? Lower salinity. I heard (check fact) that the bottom is salty and the surface is more fresh when it happens. Separates. Displacement.
Quoting 142. GeoffreyWPB:



Agree. Very odd season. Who knows, when we wake up in the morning, GraceX may be 93L.


As of now NHC has it at 0% still. But it may change.
Quoting 145. Starhopper:


May be due to ice melt? Just a guess. Brackish water conditions commonly occur when fresh water meets seawater.
Result? Lower salinity. I heard (check fact) that the bottom is salty and the surface is more fresh when it happens. Separates. Displacement.


Well the higher the concentration of salts the more dense the water is. Which is why you float easily in the Dead Sea.
Quoting 105. 882MB:

Just saw the Guadeloupe and Martinique radar and some of the islands are receiving a nice soaking. Dominica is getting a pretty good soaking as we speak, and has so for the past hour or so. Not good news for an island that has suffered a lot just recently from Erika. Heres the link to the radar imagery in case some of you guys don't have it.

Link
With a perverse sort of luck, Dominica's hundreds of rivers should be able to handle more rain now than before the big flood. The flood should have scoured the channels and removed a lot of accumulated debris, thereby increasing carrying capacity. Soil saturation almost doesn't matter, since it's shallow volcanic soil over rock, but how well the drainages function is a big deal.
Quoting 145. Starhopper:


May be due to ice melt? Just a guess. Brackish water conditions commonly occur when fresh water meets seawater.
Result? Lower salinity. I heard (check fact) that the bottom is salty and the surface is more fresh when it happens. Separates. Displacement.
There's usually some decrease in salinity in the North Atlantic at the end of the melt season. Because the cold water at depth is so dense, the salt is also more concentrated. The North Atlantic near Canada is the least salty of the whole Atlantic basin, mainly because there are so many rivers in northern Canada that discharge large volumes of freshwater into the Atlantic.
152. JRRP
Quoting 148. win1gamegiantsplease:



Well the higher the concentration of salts the more dense the water is. Which is why you float easily in the Dead Sea.


Which is also why the Dead Sea does not support aquatic life. Which is why it is called the Dead Sea ;)
Evening all .... interesting read in the NHC blog by James Franklin .... especially this ....

Was the message from NHC muddled?

We think that there might be some ways for NHC to make key aspects of our message easier to find. Although NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Discussions (TCDs) repeatedly talked about the uncertainty surrounding Erika’s future beyond the Caribbean, including the possibility that the cyclone could dissipate before reaching Florida, it does not appear that this was a prominent part of the media’s message to Florida residents. Making key “talking points” more distinctly visible in the TCD and the Public Advisory are options we are considering, as well as enhanced use of NHC’s Twitter and Facebook accounts. Having said that, consumers and especially re-packagers of tropical cyclone forecast information, like our media partners, should take some responsibility for making use of the information that is already available.
Quoting 135. MahFL:



Does anyone know what that actually means in laymans terms ?


Fresh water entering at a faster rate that can be replaced. Ice Melt.

Similar to the excessive fresh water trash dumps from lake okeechobee into the indian river, killed the ecosystem.
Quoting 147. FunnelVortex:



As of now NHC has it at 0% still. But it may change.
I believe the NHC is watching the wave to see if it makes it intact past Puerto Rico. It's subject to dissipation due to the high terrain just like any tropical system. The north end of the wave is already dissipating, and the only area of real convection is over the northern Leewards. I'm hoping that makes it to Puerto Rico and gives them some decent rain. The wave isn't making much progress west however, which is not a good sign. I keep reading about people saying this is going to get to the Bahamas and somehow regenerate. I think the NHC's 0% chances are about right for that.

Pretty impressive blow up over South Central FL this evening, typically don't see that this time of night.

Quoting 154. BahaHurican:

Evening all .... interesting read in the NHC blog by James Franklin .... especially this ....

Was the message from NHC muddled?

We think that there might be some ways for NHC to make key aspects of our message easier to find. Although NHC’s Tropical Cyclone Discussions (TCDs) repeatedly talked about the uncertainty surrounding Erika’s future beyond the Caribbean, including the possibility that the cyclone could dissipate before reaching Florida, it does not appear that this was a prominent part of the media’s message to Florida residents. Making key “talking points” more distinctly visible in the TCD and the Public Advisory are options we are considering, as well as enhanced use of NHC’s Twitter and Facebook accounts. Having said that, consumers and especially re-packagers of tropical cyclone forecast information, like our media partners, should take some responsibility for making use of the information that is already available.

I think the key point is adding some of the discussion to the public advisories. The NHC's reason for not issuing a watch for Florida was stated repeatedly in the discussions. The possibility of dissipation before it ever got to Florida was stated repeatedly in the discussions. None of that made it to the public advisories however. I suspect that that vast majority of people don't read discussions, and some who do don't seem to understand what they really mean. Beefing up the talking points in the public discussions would be a good idea. It would also be a good idea if some TV mets reflected the discussion rather than their own hyped up ideas of what might happen.
Quoting 157. ProgressivePulse:

Pretty impressive blow up over South Central FL this evening, typically don't see that this time of night.


Looks better on satellite than it does on radar though. Seems to be mostly a good lighting producer without much rain, especially on the east coast.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

With a perverse sort of luck, Dominica's hundreds of rivers should be able to handle more rain now than before the big flood. The flood should have scoured the channels and removed a lot of accumulated debris, thereby increasing carrying capacity. Soil saturation almost doesn't matter, since it's shallow volcanic soil over rock, but how well the drainages function is a big deal.


nope.. the complete opposite has occurred. Its not a pretty sight in Dominica .the river beds are filled with silt and other debis from erika's floods. Once again, there is flooding across the island. by no means is it to the scale of 2 weeks ago but it is significant as we are not use to this. Once again numerous land and rock slides reported. All the temporary bypasses created on the west coast to replace the many washed away bridges have been compromised.. the grounds are too saturated and any additional rainfall is not welcomed in Dominica.

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/ general/update-with-more-photos-flooding-reported- in-several-areas/

http://www.cbn4.com/2015/09/11/floooding-reported -across-the-island/

Quoting 159. sar2401:

Looks better on satellite than it does on radar though. Seems to be mostly a good lighting producer without much rain, especially on the east coast.


I noticed that. Looks like the cell moved through my woodshop in Stuart, nothing much at home here in Jupiter, very localized. Probably packed a punch for those in receipt of though.
Quoting 144. win1gamegiantsplease:

Jeez, four posts got removed in succession? Uh-oh.



57 is where we're supposed to be Sunday night, can't wait for that [brief] change.
Yeah, I'll take it also. The predicted high on Sunday is 79. If that's really the case, I might be able to get up on the steel roof on my garage and add some screws to a leaking seam without getting third degree burns.
1hr satellite totals.

I can't post the loop but that actually came from a strong cell that formed over lake O
Quoting 160. java162:



nope.. the complete opposite has occurred. Its not a pretty sight in Dominica .the river beds are filled with silt and other debis from erika's floods. Once again, there is flooding across the island. by no means is it to the scale of 2 weeks ago but it is significant as we are not use to this. Once again numerous land and rock slides reported. All the temporary bypasses created on the west coast to replace the many washed away bridges have been compromised.. the grounds are too saturated and any additional rainfall is not welcomed in Dominica.

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/homepage/news/ general/update-with-more-photos-flooding-reported- in-several-areas/

http://www.cbn4.com/2015/09/11/floooding-reported -across-the-island/


That's too bad. I was hoping the floods cleaned out at least some of the river channels but I guess not. At least the rain is starting to move away from you now, so I hope things don't get any worse.
Quoting 110. Crucian:

FWIW Part 2 - St Croix

Wind E/SE 20 average, gusting to 30. Barometer rising from 29.92 No rainfall recorded in the last 24 hours.

Station Location: 17°44'19"N 64° 41'49"W 400' ASL
Equipment: Davis Vantage Pro2, Anemometer 20' AGL





It appears that Ex- Grace may be trying to form a more organised, precise LLCC near the St. Croix area. Its apparently attempting a similar path to Erika in some way... The female named storms seem to be operating in some sort of tropical tandem...The intrigues of mother Nature are altogether complex and fascinating.
Time will tell what 'Ex Grace' may really be up to. I hope and pray that the storm system will not produce anything in the future that is in anyway similar to what Erika caused here in Dominica. Inspite of the additional heavy rains caused on the island by the remnants of 'Grace' today -we remain resolute on the path to recovery and full realization of normalcy in our beautiful and still very lush Nature isle.

Blessings!
This is better. It actually formed in central PBC, headed NW to lake O, blew up and took of NE

Quoting 151. Gearsts:


Looks like a TS
Quoting 168. Camerooski:

Looks like a TS


No COC, no TS. Plus convection needs to last longer than a couple hours to be classified.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Yeah, I'll take it also. The predicted high on Sunday is 79. If that's really the case, I might be able to get up on the steel roof on my garage and add some screws to a leaking seam without getting third degree burns.


About the same here (80 as the high), too bad the first NFL Sunday is this week. Maybe I'll get a bike ride in before stocking up on beers and a pizza. I like riding up Kerr to Princess to 23rd and take a break to watch the ibises turtles and gators over the Smith Creek bridge (ILM bloggers would know what I'm talking about). They like hanging by the MLK overpass. Already got most of my calc/phys homework out of the way to clear the weekend.

Quoting 153. FunnelVortex:



Which is also why the Dead Sea does not support aquatic life. Which is why it is called the Dead Sea ;)


Yea very few things can take that kind of salinity. Mostly bacteria and fungi, which are known to be found at the bottom of the Dead Sea last I checked.
Quoting 168. Camerooski:

Looks like a TS
Looks like a ball of convection. You first need a low before you can have a TS.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

There's usually some decrease in salinity in the North Atlantic at the end of the melt season. Because the cold water at depth is so dense, the salt is also more concentrated. The North Atlantic near Canada is the least salty of the whole Atlantic basin, mainly because there are so many rivers in northern Canada that discharge large volumes of freshwater into the Atlantic.

Yes for sure. Aside from salinity content ..cold and warm water must factor in to the mixing too huh. Thought of that when you said "melt".
Quoting 170. win1gamegiantsplease:



About the same here (80 as the high), too bad the first NFL Sunday is this week. Maybe I'll get a bike ride in before stocking up on beers and a pizza. I like riding up Kerr to Princess to 23rd and take a break to watch the ibises turtles and gators over the Smith Creek bridge (ILM bloggers would know what I'm talking about). They like hanging by the MLK overpass. Already got most of my calc/phys homework out of the way to clear the weekend.
Sounds nice. I used to do a lot of bike riding. Now, walking is about as big a challenge as I'm up for. Whatever happens with the now famous ex-Grace tropical wave doesn't look like it will have any effect over here. My rain chances never rise above 10% after tomorrow morning. Rats!
Quoting 172. Starhopper:


Yes for sure. Aside from salinity content ..cold and warm water must factor in to the mixing too huh. Thought of that when you said "melt".
The biggest effect in the North Atlantic is the Gulf Stream. It transports much warmer and somewhat less salty water far north before turning toward Europe. It aids in keeping salinity in balance as well as making places like Labrador and Newfoundland liveable in terms of climate. The biggest fear with climate change is a disruption in the Gulf Stream, where it doesn't go as far north and turns toward the equator instead of Europe. It would be a very bad thing.
176. JLPR2
Quoting 171. sar2401:

Looks like a ball of convection. You first need a low before you can have a TS.


I remember the time when TS's weren't just a ball of convection, when they had banding, decent, well organized and deep CDOs with pretty outflow. Sigh... now Tropical storms are just sheared messes so any blob is a suspect. :|



*begins rain dance*
Quoting 157. ProgressivePulse:

Pretty impressive blow up over South Central FL this evening, typically don't see that this time of night.


El Nino , frontal boundary, difluence over the gulf, instability , along with a large amount of Pacific moisture is helping to keep convection going well into the night. A lot of folks are going to get heavy rain.


Off PR...good shear for a while and some dry on left.
Quoting 167. ProgressivePulse:

This is better. It actually formed in central PBC, headed NW to lake O, blew up and took of NE


Which I guess is why Palm Beach is the only area with significant rain. When you combine sea breeze collisions with highly unstable air inland and a good heat source like Lake O, things can get exciting in a hurry. We have humidity about as high as most of Florida with plenty of heat but we just don't have those other factors to set off widespread convection. Summer weather in Alabama can get pretty boring. November through March makes up for it though. :-)
Quoting 173. sar2401:

Sounds nice. I used to do a lot of bike riding. Now, walking is about as big a challenge as I'm up for. Whatever happens with the now famous ex-Grace tropical wave doesn't look like it will have any effect over here. My rain chances never rise above 10% after tomorrow morning. Rats!


Maybe with ENSO you'll see that change through the winter, might have to sacrifice the green of your lawn but that's the brakes. ENSO typically brings above average precipitation (mostly in water, fewer freezes) to the Gulf coast as seasons change, but this has been an odd year. As Scott mentioned the 1997 ENSO was preceded by pretty dry conditions in Florida before turning on the jets, aside from the panhandle and south Florida they've seen above-average rainfall thus far. Up here we've been right about average but until the last few weeks below it. We could do with less ice this winter, two successive quarter inch plus storms is quite enough.
182. Relix
Oh God most of the rain is staying south of the island. This drought will never end haha!
Quoting 135. MahFL:



Does anyone know what that actually means in laymans terms ?


Thermo = heat
Haline = salt (Halite is the mineral name for salt)

Thermohaline circulation - Ocean current transporting warm salty water (i.e the Gulf Stream).

The Gulf Stream is a major contributor to why England and Northern Europe aren't more like Northern Canada and Alaska (check the latitudes). A slowdown or ceasing of that current would make for some chilly unhappy people in those regions in winter. However it is far more likely at this point in time that it's just a "blip".


More: Link
Despite the near record El Nino conditions underway... Atlantic Basin tropical system formation activity seems rather un-inhibited at the current Climatological Peak of the season. A very interesting spin on the low pressure system in the gulf approaching near the West Coast of Florida- even apparently sporting a 'false eye' near its CDO/ Center...

Blessings!
wonder if Grace has a surprise for florida lol
Quoting 151. Gearsts:




We haven't got the expected rain... very minimal amounts...
188. SLU
Quoting 149. sar2401:

With a perverse sort of luck, Dominica's hundreds of rivers should be able to handle more rain now than before the big flood. The flood should have scoured the channels and removed a lot of accumulated debris, thereby increasing carrying capacity. Soil saturation almost doesn't matter, since it's shallow volcanic soil over rock, but how well the drainages function is a big deal.


Actually, the carrying capacity of the rivers has been reduced due to heavy silt build up from the landslides in the hills making flooding more dangerous. Same thing happen in St. Lucia after hurricane Tomas. For the next 2 - 3 years, flooding became very common even with minor rainfall events due to heavy silt. The more the rivers were de-silted, the more silt came down until the vegetation recovered over the exposed hillsides.
Quoting 181. win1gamegiantsplease:

I think someone posted this earlier. Pretty cool...
Quoting 182. Relix:

Oh God most of the rain is staying south of the island. This drought will never end haha!


2015 is really not OUR YEAR!
Quoting 187. CaribBoy:



We haven't got the expected rain... very minimal amounts...
As expected ;)

R Click/View image for near full screen. Nice radar WU.
Quoting 185. NatureIsle:

Despite the near record El Nino conditions underway... Atlantic Basin tropical system formation activity seems rather un-inhibited at the current Climatological Peak of the season. A very interesting spin on the low pressure system in the gulf approaching near the West Coast of Florida- even apparently sporting a 'false eye' near its CDO/ Center...

Blessings!


We're ahead of 1997's pace, but still a low ACE value. It's been an interesting year though.

Quoting 189. Starhopper:


I think someone posted this earlier. Pretty cool...



Dang, Key West. I did know the Gulf coast was wetter than the Atlantic coast based on our many Florida bloggers here posting, that graph cements it.
194. SLU
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:



2015 is really not OUR YEAR!


Not Dominica's either. Every uneven sharing of the rain this season.
Scott please bring back the paper mill we need the zinc oxide so we can get some rain in Saraland when y'all shut down you took our rain damn sorry Dr.
Quoting 186. MiamiHeat305:

wonder if Grace has a surprise for florida lol


I would have thought a run to the store for supplies now message would have come out.
Pretty eventful day here in eastern NC..Funnel cloud here earlier in Wilmington, NC and a small Plane crash just minutes ago in Riegelwood, NC..
Quoting 199. ncstorm:

Pretty eventful day here in eastern NC..Funnel cloud here earlier in Wilmington, NC and a small Plane crash just minutes ago in Riegelwood, NC..


Where by? It stormed at my place starting at 3:30, I'm off Kerr
Quoting 180. sar2401:

Which I guess is why Palm Beach is the only area with significant rain. When you combine sea breeze collisions with highly unstable air inland and a good heat source like Lake O, things can get exciting in a hurry. We have humidity about as high as most of Florida with plenty of heat but we just don't have those other factors to set off widespread convection. Summer weather in Alabama can get pretty boring. November through March makes up for it though. :-)


What about April or May? Seems to me SE Alabama get's it's share of epic squall lines and super cells in April and May. BTW, you're also still far enough south to see some good TC impacts if a hurricane makes landfall in the FL panhandle and heads through your region.
Quoting 200. win1gamegiantsplease:



Where by? It stormed at my place starting at 3:30, I'm off Kerr


Check the WECT FB page..by UNCW/Market Street area..
204. SLU
Quoting 184. Starhopper:


More: Link

As far as blobology goes, if you compare the blob that is ex-Grace with the blob over Central Florida (which look nearly identical), and wonder what the weather might be like beneath them, I'm under the C. Florida blob and there's not a
drop of rain nor a breeze.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

With a perverse sort of luck, Dominica's hundreds of rivers should be able to handle more rain now than before the big flood. The flood should have scoured the channels and removed a lot of accumulated debris, thereby increasing carrying capacity. Soil saturation almost doesn't matter, since it's shallow volcanic soil over rock, but how well the drainages function is a big deal.



I don't think the whole island is shallow volcanic soil over rock. Look up Dominica, it's a VERY wet rain forest climate with some of the most lush jungle canopies in the world. With that said, I don't think soil saturation is the issue, as being the island is a very rainy climate, especially in the highlands, it would be typical to have saturated soil.

With that said, I think just like anywhere else, it's the deviation from average in terms of a lot of rain in a short time that is so dangerous there. Also, it's the rapid change in elevation that's also very dangerous. A place that averages 100 inches in the low lands and 200-300 inches in the highlands is obviously prone to frequent heavy rain events. But a TC rain event like they had a few weeks on top of the usual is dangerous. Who knows just how much rain fell in the mountains.
Hey man y'all been getting any of this rain in enterprise
Quoting 203. ncstorm:



Check the WECT FB page..by UNCW/Market Street area..


A little after four, wish I could've seen it, I have lots of pines obstructing my view towards that direction. There was a plane crash in High Point on Monday, literally five miles from my parents house.
Quoting 76. tampabaymatt:



Lots of rain on the way for FL.


My dad and brother back home in the Tampa Bay area bought tickets to the Bucs home opener this Sunday, I warned them yesterday it could get ugly.

I'm going to the home game tomorrow with USF playing here at FSU. Model average is 80- 90 pops, a strong jet streak, 2 inch PW's a diffluent flow means it's probably going to be a messy game unless the activity comes in earlier and ends earlier than expected.

At the same time, I'm looking forward to the first frontal passage and first shot of cooler air for Sunday and Monday. It's probably the earliest I've seen cool air in the forecast for this point in the season.
211. IDTH
What would blobageddon look like?
Quoting 202. CaribBoy:



This is how I feel right now... disappointed.


Nevertheless, be careful what You wish for the Spiritual masters have Correctly noted that in life the ONLY thing worse than not getting what You want is -Actually getting just what You wished for...I can assure You that You would not like in the least an 'Erika event' as we are tragically coping with right now. Count your Blessings...everything comes so to speak -in the 'right time' -so being anxious neither adds nor detracts from what 'Will be'.

On another note -With regards to additional convectional blow ups and associated spin/ pronounced circulations- there's an interesting cluster of thunderstorms and convection just north of French Guiana, near 51 West, also the spin up on convection mentioned by the NHC -southwest of the Azores seems to be trying to pull more convection near its center- apparent modest intensification.

Blessings!
Quoting 207. stratman1:

Hey man y'all been getting any of this rain in enterprise
If you mean me, I'm in Eufaula, but yes, got 0.09" from a passing shower about 30 minutes ago. Not exactly a gully washer, but better than nothing.
Quoting 209. win1gamegiantsplease:



Crazy. Erika literally skipped you guys, if someone saved the loop of it's passage "through" PR I'd like to see it again.
Quoting 206. Jedkins01:




I don't think the whole island is shallow volcanic soil over rock. Look up Dominica, it's a VERY wet rain forest climate with some of the most lush jungle canopies in the world. With that said, I don't think soil saturation is the issue, as being the island is a very rainy climate, especially in the highlands, it would be typical to have saturated soil.

With that said, I think just like anywhere else, it's the deviation from average in terms of a lot of rain in a short time that is so dangerous there. Also, it's the rapid change in elevation that's also very dangerous. A place that averages 100 inches in the low lands and 200-300 inches in the highlands is obviously prone to frequent heavy rain events. But a TC rain event like they had a few weeks on top of the usual is dangerous. Who knows just how much rain fell in the mountains.


Your Insights and assessment of the situation is right on target since our rugged and mountainous topography of the island -in particular that of the interior makes astronomical rainfall totals rather typical. I remember conversing with former agricultural experts and field officers who manned stations in the interior of the island who confessed that the majority of times particularly in the rainy season that there was no guarantee of ever being able to obtain an fully precise rainfall measurement (using graduated cylinders/ standard rain gauge) at most interior locations since irrespective of the size of the respective rainfall gauges they would frequently be met at overflowing point after a 24hr period in the commonly called 'wet areas' or rain forested parts of the island.
As for the aftermath since Erika- most of our major rivers and streams/ ravines remain highly silted and elevated due to the sheer volume of material that was washed down from the hinterlands and watershed zones (boulders, stones, sand piles, rubble, tree trunks etc.). Much like Japan such unprecedented rainfall events will result in extreme to catastrophic impacts especially on the natural environment...We too like our brother and sisters in Japan plough Ahead in picking up all the pieces. Deepest condolences once again to all the families of the victims of these deadly world wide flood events.

God's Blessings to All!
Evening all ... Is this what's left of Grace?
Quoting 205. miamivu:


As far as blobology goes, if you compare the blob that is ex-Grace with the blob over Central Florida (which look nearly identical), and wonder what the weather might be like beneath them, I'm under the C. Florida blob and there's not a
drop of rain nor a breeze.
This is a great example of why the rainbow view is not good if you're looking for actual details. The AVN shows the same general area of convection but correctly depicts the rain as the red areas inside the large area of convection. It shows the rain moving offshore from the Palm Beach area and the rain from the ex-Grace blob moving south of Puerto Rico, as we've heard. As I've said many times before, the rainbow view was developed for TV mets, who complained the other views didn't look "dramatic" enough when shown on TV. Serious amateurs don't look at or post the rainbow view.

Quoting 214. Gearsts:




A little further back in time looks more painful, had more convection to the north, literally looked like Erika gave you guys the "talk to the hand"
219. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2 minHace 2 minutos State College, PA Ver traducción
remnants of Grace approaching PR. Gusts to 38 at St croix
Quoting 205. miamivu:


As far as blobology goes, if you compare the blob that is ex-Grace with the blob over Central Florida (which look nearly identical), and wonder what the weather might be like beneath them, I'm under the C. Florida blob and there's not a
drop of rain nor a breeze.
To your southeast here in Nassau, we're experiencing some thunder and lightning but so far no rain in my part of town...
Quoting 210. Jedkins01:



My dad and brother back home in the Tampa Bay area bought tickets to the Bucs home opener this Sunday, I warned them yesterday it could get ugly.

I'm going to the home game tomorrow with USF playing here at FSU. Model average is 80- 90 pops, a strong jet streak, 2 inch PW's a diffluent flow means it's probably going to be a messy game unless the activity comes in earlier and ends earlier than expected.

At the same time, I'm looking forward to the first frontal passage and first shot of cooler air for Sunday and Monday. It's probably the earliest I've seen cool air in the forecast for this point in the season.


Looks to be a soaker, I saw the giants in Jacksonville last year. Beautiful weather for November. Horrible game to lose.
Quoting 216. BahaHurican:

Evening all ... Is this what's left of Grace?

Pretty much, although the convection producing rain is only south of PR at this point. Now we'll see if it can make it to Hispaniola.
Quoting 218. win1gamegiantsplease:



A little further back in time looks more painful, had more convection to the north, literally looked like Erika gave you guys the "talk to the hand"
Happy Birthday, Doc Masters!

I wanted to post a birthday cake, but all the "Happy Birthday Doc" cakes were for medical doctors. So I googled "Happy Birthday hurricane cake" and chose a likely photo. Imagine me laughing after clicking on the link and seeing that this was Doc Masters' birthday cake in 2013! :-D Nicely done!

Quoting 205. miamivu:


As far as blobology goes, if you compare the blob that is ex-Grace with the blob over Central Florida (which look nearly identical), and wonder what the weather might be like beneath them, I'm under the C. Florida blob and there's not a
drop of rain nor a breeze.


Looks like a lot of it scooted east. I see your point. A mix of Radar and Sat gives a little better idea of what's going on than Sat alone.
GFS shows little rain for us.
The atlantic look rather convectively active is the mjo within our area ...
Quoting 219. JRRP:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2 minHace 2 minutos State College, PA Ver traducción
remnants of Grace approaching PR. Gusts to 38 at St croix
St. Croix is just far enough south to catch the edge of the area of convection. The wind is 13 mph with gusts of 24 mph with light rain. Even a 38 mph gust isn't unusual for a tropical wave. Unfortunately, the radar shows clearly that PR is getting missed right now, but there's a chance you could still get something out of this as the wave rotates west.

Quoting 227. bupsin101:

The atlantic look rather convectively active is the mjo within our area ...
Fall is coming to Southeast Louisiana !




232. JRRP
is that an eye ? lol
Quoting 208. win1gamegiantsplease:



A little after four, wish I could've seen it, I have lots of pines obstructing my view towards that direction. There was a plane crash in High Point on Monday, literally five miles from my parents house.
I didn't really understand the news story but, if a CAP airplane already got an ELT return, that should locate the crash site within 100 meters. I wonder if the crews have already gotten to the crash site and just haven't told the press? That's what we used to regularly. Saved us a lot of grief from the press and members of the public trying to make their way to the site.
Quoting 232. JRRP:

is that an eye ? lol

No, I think that's St. Croix. :-)
Quoting 234. Starhopper:


The NHC cat status remains drowsy...
Quoting 236. sar2401:

The NHC cat status remains drowsy...

and we have...
SSMI/SSMIS/AMSR2-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic

Some shear W of of PR. May have increased a little from last frame?


Gnite all. Good information as usual.
Quoting 205. miamivu:


As far as blobology goes, if you compare the blob that is ex-Grace with the blob over Central Florida (which look nearly identical), and wonder what the weather might be like beneath them, I'm under the C. Florida blob and there's not a
drop of rain nor a breeze.
what about the blob in south texas?
Quoting 213. sar2401:

If you mean me, I'm in Eufaula, but yes, got 0.09" from a passing shower about 30 minutes ago. Not exactly a gully washer, but better than nothing.
.well yea you too I have kin folk in your town and enterprise this rain here gets close but falls apart I blame it on them closing the paper mills
Quoting 233. sar2401:

I didn't really understand the news story but, if a CAP airplane already got an ELT return, that should locate the crash site within 100 meters. I wonder if the crews have already gotten to the crash site and just haven't told the press? That's what we used to regularly. Saved us a lot of grief from the press and members of the public trying to make their way to the site.


Well, for one Columbus County is Lake Waccamaw and swamp. Didn't read into much of it but if there's a reason they're still searching that could be it. The High Point crash happened in a rock quarry, a Beech plane from Sarasota to Greensboro. Not too hard to find the wreckage there.
Quoting 201. Jedkins01:



What about April or May? Seems to me SE Alabama get's it's share of epic squall lines and super cells in April and May. BTW, you're also still far enough south to see some good TC impacts if a hurricane makes landfall in the FL panhandle and heads through your region.
Sometimes we still get some good fronts in April but our severe weather season is over by May as the jet lifts north again. North Alabama sees a lot more storms in May than us. The big month here is March, with a secondary peak in November. We can really see tornadoes almost any month in winter when we have a warm air mass in place and a strong cold front from the north.

Yes, we've had plenty of TC impacts. Ivan did a good of of wrecking the area and leaving us without power for four days. The usual impact though is heavy rain, and we depend on that to help the summer drought that will occur without it. That's what's been missing for the last 10 years or so.
Quoting 240. rasputin32327:

what about the blob in south texas?

Quoting 242. win1gamegiantsplease:



Well, for one Columbus County is Lake Waccamaw and swamp. Didn't read into much of it but if there's a reason they're still searching that could be it. The High Point crash happened in a rock quarry, a Beech plane from Sarasota to Greensboro. Not too hard to find the wreckage there.
If it was in a lake, the ELT wouldn't be working. I'm assuming they have a helicopter available, even if from the state. Assuming the weather is favorable and it got there before dark, they would be able to fly just about direct to site on GPS and determine if the crash was survivable. If so, that would mean an all out effort, even in the dark and in a swamp, or at least that's how it should go. If the crash didn't look survivable, you can bed everyone down for the night and start in the morning.
Those intense cells south-southwest of St. Croix have been showing persistence and some rotation. Not insinuating anything, just interesting to note.
Quoting 240. rasputin32327:

what about the blob in south texas?
It's from a trough in Mexico that's acting as a feed for the other storms that are over the Gulf. The advancing cold front will at least push it all further south if it doesn't kill it altogether.

Quoting 244. sar2401:
 The big month here is March, with a secondary peak in November.

In the absence of an actual hurricane season, I think I'm looking forward to this prospect the most. Even if I'm usually shafted when it comes to actually getting severe weather (tail end of fronts ain't so good for any of that stuff).
Quoting 247. EricSFL:

Those intense cells south-southwest of St. Croix have been showing persistence and some rotation. Not insinuating anything, just interesting to note.
There's been some rotation in the north end of the wave ever since the low there dissipated yesterday. No sign of a closed circulation, although it looks like the whole wave has shifted south and is following a similar path to Erika. Seems these remnants avoid land interaction just enough to never get completely vanished.
Ugly for formation

Quoting 249. KoritheMan:


Quoting 244. sar2401:
 The big month here is March, with a secondary peak in November.

In the absence of an actual hurricane season, I think I'm looking forward to this prospect the most. Even if I'm usually shafted when it comes to actually getting severe weather (tail end of fronts ain't so good for any of that stuff).
LOL We'll see how it goes for tornado season then. From what I've read so far, ENSO is a mixed bag for the Gulf coast in terms of severe weather. Some El Nino years produced more tornadoes and some less. Maybe we'll have another giant ice and snow storm you can chase. :-)
From N Indiana originally, Just want some "brief" freezing weather here in SEFL.
Quoting 241. stratman1:

.well yea you too I have kin folk in your town and enterprise this rain here gets close but falls apart I blame it on them closing the paper mills
Let's not get started on the paper mill theory again...
Quoting 253. ProgressivePulse:

From N Indiana originally, Just want some "brief" freezing weather here in SEFL.


Super El Nino = Super Cold right?

Strong El Nino did not = Slow hurricane season, guess we just wait and see.
Quoting 253. ProgressivePulse:

From N Indiana, Just want some "brief" freezing weather here in SEFL.
I'm sorry, but you moved to the wrong place for even brief freezing weather. The last freezing temperature in Miami was Christmas Day, 1989. Who knows though, maybe you're finally due after 26 years. :-)
Quoting 253. ProgressivePulse:

From N Indiana, Just want some "brief" freezing weather here in SEFL.

Likewise, however, that would bring significant damage to crops and non-native vegetation. Such was the case in the 2009-10 winter. It did help with the invasive python population though...
Quoting 255. ProgressivePulse:



Super El Nino = Super Cold right?

Strong El Nino did not = Slow hurricane season, guess we just wait and see.
No, it means warmer than usual for us. A super El Nino is not good for your hopes of freezing weather.
Quoting 256. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but you moved to the wrong place for even brief freezing weather. The last freezing temperature in Miami was Christmas Day, 1989. Who knows though, maybe you're finally due after 26 years. :-)


<----Jupiter
Quoting 252. sar2401:

LOL We'll see how it goes for tornado season then. From what I've read so far, ENSO is a mixed bag for the Gulf coast in terms of severe weather. Some El Nino years produced more tornadoes and some less. Maybe we'll have another giant ice and snow storm you can chase. :-)


Theoretically, the threat for severe weather is increased during El Nino due to colder temperatures aloft. Theoretically. Meteorology doesn't always fit in our comfortable niches.
Quoting 258. sar2401:

No, it means warmer than usual for us. A super El Nino is not good for your hopes of freezing weather.




And severe weather, because it's cooler aloft.

Quoting 250. sar2401:

There's been some rotation in the north end of the wave ever since the low there dissipated yesterday. No sign of a closed circulation, although it looks like the whole wave has shifted south and is following a similar path to Erika. Seems these remnants avoid land interaction just enough to never get completely vanished.
And beyond me mangaging to keep away all the convection and rain south of 'the so call Big Island" Puerto Rico, that's begging for some rain.
Quoting 263. Grothar:




Curious your thoughts with a ULL on top of it?
Quoting 265. ProgressivePulse:



Curious your thoughts with a ULL on top of it?


Conditions not all that good, but I will watch this closely.


California getting rain!!

And the Norwest U.S. is getting early rain which is Very goooood!!!! Seattle area from Vancouver down to Astoria Oregon had steady rain and very Hugh winds over 70 mph in certain locations last week. Looks like those areas could be picking up another couple inches this week in this early season !! As a resident in Marin County just over the Golden Gate Bridge, let the jet stream drop down and give us a lot of rain. That is to say a couple inches every week and lots of snow for a great long ski season late into spring!!! Here's to that!! Who's with me??!!!
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING.
269. vis0
image host


Arrows i ADDED. PAY ATTENTION TO OFFICIAL WORD/ALERTS be ready FIRST, and stay tuned with official notices & then read the latest blog reports on WxU by respected members.
DO NOT READ BELOW my 22cents if you are in the ANTILLES this is a time to get prepared NOT nervously but with clear calm deep breathing and using each breath of fresh oxygen to think out what one needs/essentials.
If the nothing drastic happens be proud you thought things out.


My 22cents,
Though it seems that volatility in most high cloud tops is lowering a few are re-firing further eastward of the Antilles.
Via my educated in my own theories guess i wonder if by midday-mid afternoon Sat. Sept 12 2015 the blobs East of the Antilles build up as they move westward.

This is based on what i've explained on my blog as to my area NYc a "weird" invention &  having a front / LOWering pressure coming in overhead.



Being that i'm on a 49k-56k connection here some useful imagery links you can
use to view imagery WAY before i upload them

These image links are for those away from harm as they are not prepared till ~31minutes AFTER the Marked time, i/e. 7:15AM not ready till 7:46AM this is why thet are in copy paste not linked url mode so one thinks before they easily click a link.
Local Emergency Officials have the latest word, even if they might be incorrect at the start in the end they should know whats up in the last few minutes.

Next few hrs for ir imagery
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/ir/goeseast.4km.ir.cta.201509120815.gif
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/ir/goeseast.4km.ir.cta.201509120845.gif
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/ir/goeseast.4km.ir.cta.201509120915.gif
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/ir/goeseast.4km.ir.cta.201509120945.gif

Next few hrs for ir imagery
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/wv/goeseast.4km.wv.cta.201509120815.gif
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/wv/goeseast.4km.wv.cta.201509120845.gif
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/wv/goeseast.4km.wv.cta.201509120915.gif
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/images/goesea st/4km/wv/goeseast.4km.wv.cta.201509120945.gif
270. vis0
b4 any1 axes "links dn't wrk?" now ya know why i left it in txt format, as spaces R ++. If you really want the images ya'll figure out how to fix the lunk (unworking link) ...msg fer younings
The weather blob near PR looks somewhat impressing this morning, but we in PR only catch brief rains in the eastern most part of the island. The gross of the showers are too far to the south of the blob of convection. Again, I don't expect much from these remains of ex-Grace. Bye ex-Grace.
My overall expectations with respect to ex-Grace remnants here in PR: Partly cloudy skies
275. vis0
Almost had on land Mex towards Tex an MM turn into a BO effect
( (Efecto de Mar Maron) Mar Marrón◄es|en►Ocean Brown (Brown Ocean Effect) )

apology to Italian speaking peeps. Of course now its over h2Oh so warm ...any eddys?

Meanwhile lets see how the majeekal-device effects a LOW under its AOI in GoMx...as NYC cleared (find archives of the NYC area for the same hrs) watch that LOW saaah-liide quickly ENE
image host
(via the known sciences aka physics, its the strong ENSO energy via winds but i state the device triggers when those energies can flow with ease or not via very low mag-resonances) ...now the NYC area is having pressures Lower so the LOW/Blob can act more as to what we are use to for the 129yr norm as in heading Southward & looking "healthier"...when NYC clears / pressures begin to continually rise again if the blob is still in tact lets observe its actions. If the blob has a forward motion with an "S" in  its compass, the sudden tug NE / N might uncouple it or allow drier air to infiltrate the bolb/LOW. If the Blob/LOW is already moving with a "N" compass motion then it will add speed, moisture, winds. So be careful even if it looks like a dud.
Dawn at Vero Beach Fl. Credit Joe Rimkus Jr





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is
currently producing minimal shower activity. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave next week while it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the northeastern Caribbean Sea in
association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be favorable for redevelopment of this
system during the next several days. However, heavy rain and gusty
winds are possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is
currently producing minimal shower activity. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave next week while it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A small low pressure system located about 1000 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Quoting 281. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is
currently producing minimal shower activity. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave next week while it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
trough near s texas is interesting
Quoting 279. tropicofcancer:

Dawn at Vero Beach Fl. Credit Joe Rimkus Jr








The sky was also beautiful (nice colors) here in Fort Myers this morning. Lots of high clouds for the sun to play with.
maybe a new invest soon

Quoting 254. sar2401:

Let's not get started on the paper mill theory again...
Hey its true has his ha
Nasty cell just offshore extreme S.W. Florida. This view is from Marco Island looking out into the GOM.


what happern here!!
The remnants of Grace are really looking like remnants this morning.




lots if rain at 32 west


iam watching 32 west right now
Quoting 292. GeoffreyWPB:


Wow, this little systems seems to have a mind of their own, whenever the near or go by Puerto Rico the shrink or go "poof". to keep us with the drought. So Hispaniola expect lots of rain, will blossom when it reaches you...
Quoting 282. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the northeastern Caribbean Sea in
association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace. Upper-level
winds are not expected to be favorable for redevelopment of this
system during the next several days. However, heavy rain and gusty
winds are possible across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola during the next day or two while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is
currently producing minimal shower activity. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave next week while it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A small low pressure system located about 1000 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


In terms of the Grace remnants I would say this system goes poof upon reaching PR. Expect nothing except partly cloudy or partly sunny sky over PR and nearby islands.
Quoting 290. hurricanes2018:



what happern here!!


FYI The word is spelled HAPPEN
who will get the next number? azores tw or cv tw or gulf trough?
dad taught me in the 60s watch the gulf. gulf will.
Happy Birthday, Jeff!!
Quoting 295. HuracanTaino:

Wow, this little systems seems to have a mind of their own, whenever the near or go by Puerto Rico the shrink or go "poof". to keep us with the drought. So Hispaniola expect lots of rain, will blossom when it reaches you...


Its the same behavior of what happened to Erika into the island... look how it moves SW loosing most WV...

Any connection with the Arecibo RadioObservatory? Or simple shear... doing its job over us?

302. FOREX
Quoting 298. islander101010:

who will get the next number? azores tw or cv tw or gulf trough?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 67. BobHenson:



Hmmm...I'm not having any trouble getting to it on Chrome or Firefox.

Bob


Thanks for checking, Bob. I am at home now (sorry about the late reply) and when I try to get on the Bay Nature site, Chrome says:
ERR_SSL_VERSION_OR_CIPHER_MISMATCH
A secure connection cannot be established because this site uses an unsupported protocol.

I'm still looking for a workaround for Chrome. It's blocking the site at work and at home.

Now that I'm at home I can use Firefox so I was able to get into Bay Nature by unchecking the box for "Enable HTTPS Scanning" in the Avast! Web Shield section. Earlier, the site would not open and then an antivirus alert popup would say:
Avast Web Shield has blocked access to this page because the following certificate is invalid:
sni111662.cloudflaressl.com


Now that I can actually get on the site, I'll ask them to update their certificate(s).