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Henri Forms; a New African Wave is Worth Watching; Etau Deluges Japan

By: Jeff Masters 4:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2015

Tropical Storm Henri got its name on Wednesday evening in the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, but appears destined to be short-lived and quickly forgotten. Henri is under moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which is inhibiting development, but ocean waters are warm, near 28°C (82°F). The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that Thursday night through Friday night, Herni should find moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots and a moister atmosphere, which should allow it to intensify into a strong tropical storm. By Saturday morning, Henri will have crossed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream into very cold waters of 17°C (63°F), which should cause a rapid transition to an extratropical storm. Henri will pass close to southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday morning. Henri's formation date of September 9 comes two weeks earlier than the usual September 24 formation date for the Atlantic's eighth named storm of the year, and matches the total number of named storms that occurred during the entire year the last time we had a strong El Niño event--in 1997. The Atlantic has seen close to average levels of activity this year: 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane; a typical season sees 6 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane by this point in the season. However, this year's storms have been weaker and shorter-lived than usual; our Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (25) is about half of average (50.) The official halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 11, so we are halfway home!


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Henri.

New African tropical wave worth watching
A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Thursday has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westwards across the Atlantic at about 15 mph. Though the wave does not yet have much spin or heavy thunderstorm activity, conditions are favorable for development, with wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures at 27.5 - 28.5°C (82 - 84°F), and only a modest amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer to the north of the disturbance. One of our three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, forecasted in its 00Z Thursday run that the wave would develop into a tropical depression midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa by Sunday. Many of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble forecast also predicted development, though the operational high-resolution version of the GFS model did not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively. This wave looks less likely to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands than the waves that spawned Grace, Erika, and Danny, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance next week
An area of disturbed weather is expected to form in the Western Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday next week. This disturbance will be capable of developing into a tropical depression, and could bring heavy rains to the coast of Mexico south of Texas early next week.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Kilo as seen by the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite at 02:50 UTC September 10, 2015. At the time, Kilo had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Kilo and Linda continue to churn the Pacific
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, Tropical Storm Linda quickly weakened to a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds at 11 am EDT Thursday. A northeasterly flow of moisture along the east side of Linda continues to stream into Northwest Mexico and the Southwest U.S., and will contribute to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain over the next two days. Flash flood watches are posted for Southwest California for the regions just inland from San Diego to Los Angeles. Linda is expected to be dead by Friday. Long-lived Tropical Storm Kilo has finally weakened below hurricane strength, after being a Category 1 or stronger storm for thirteen days. Kilo became a tropical depression on August 20, and is now entering its 22nd day as a tropical cyclone. Kilo will move on a northerly path that will take it into the cold waters between Russia and Japan on Friday night, when it will finally die after 23 - 24 days as a tropical cyclone. According to the Hurricane FAQ, this will make Kilo one of the top-ten longest-lived tropical cyclones on record. In the Central Pacific waters about 300 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, Tropical Storm Jimena finally died on Thursday, after fifteen days as a tropical cyclone.


Video 1. A house floats away and a rooftop helicopter rescues occur in the floodwaters spawned by Japan's Tropical Storm Etau. Thanks go to wunderground member Xandra for posting this video in my blog comments.

Tropical Storm Etau deluges Japan
Tropical Storm Etau hit Japan just after 10 a.m. on Sept. 9 on the Chita Peninsula, Aichi Prefecture. A band of heavy rain set up over the northern Tokyo metropolitan area, bringing extreme rainfall and catastrophic flooding. The city of Ikari recorded 21.69" (551 mm) of rain in just 24 hours, and Nikko has received 26.30" (668 mm) since Sunday (thanks go to Maximiliano Herrera for the Ikari rainfall info.) For more details, see the news story by TWC's Nick Wiltgen.

The challenges NHC faced on predicting the path and intensity of Tropical Storm Erika are discussed by James Franklin, Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit, in a September 9 blog post, After Further Review: Tropical Storm Erika.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 496. sar2401:

I'm sure they will also, but it would be cool to see as long it stays out in the Atlantic.


Yeah, that thing is intense and enormous. It looks like a 2004-2005 storm, but since it is in an El Ninio year it probably will not happen.
Quoting 494. FunnelVortex:

Holy...



Im sure 12z will drop this though.
Inotice the huge 1037 MB high over the U.S. That will be a very cold air mass, and I believe it will pan out even though it is at 384 hours.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1053 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.UPDATE...
A LITTLE PERPLEXED THIS MORNING ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MORNING
UPDATES. DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING MUCH, HOWEVER THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING HAS ME WONDERING. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS INITIALIZED ON
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HAD THAT MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. THE
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK AT AROUND 5 MPH. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, HOWEVER THE 500MB
TEMPERATURE REMAINS AT -5.5C WHICH IS STILL A DEGREE WARMER THAN
THE AVERAGE FOR THIS DATE. THERE IS ALSO A VERY WEAK CAP AT 700MB
BUT SOME TIMES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THAT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDERS
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, WILL ADD A FLOODING
STATEMENT TO THE HWO ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE INLAND AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO
AREA JUST DUE TO THE FACT THAT IF THE A MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM.
ALSO, THE NCAPE IS AT .23 WHICH INDICATES MORE SUSTAINABLE STORM
STRENGTH VERSUS PULSE TYPE AND WHEN THE SOUNDING IS MODIFIED FOR
DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IT JUMPS TO .35 AND THIS INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE STORM STRENGHT VERSUS PULSE TYPE
ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO THAT ALONG WITH PWAT AT JUST
OVER 2" THERE COULD ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR STREET
FLOODING WITH THE ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM MOTION.

KOB
Quoting 469. fmbill:



That is true Scott. The GFS has really been off this summer.


Ha, when was it ever on?
south florida stay alert for any future storm warnings..stay safe down there.
Quoting 385. Camerooski:

Grace looks absolutely great this morning! Amazing how she's still getting fed tons of moisture from the ITZ south of her. If she can still fire off moisture once she loses that moisture, than FL can have a problem on their hands... Those SSTS in that area are extremely warm, and the wind shear weakens as well. Very interesting.


You've got to be kidding. You call that great?
Quoting 502. hydrus:

Inotice the huge 1037 MB high over the U.S. That will be a very cold air mass, and I believe it will pan out even though it is at 384 hours.


Maybe, but looking at this, the storm on the 6z run is probably a Sandy-like hybrid being fueled by the cold highs
Quoting 476. JRRP:




OMG nice!
people are a bit grumpy around here this morning.........let's all listen to our happy music...it's friday folks...the weekend awaits

Quoting 510. ricderr:

people are a bit grumpy around here this morning.........let's all listen to our happy music...it's friday folks...the weekend awaits




Can't browse here too much today...trying to watch my sodium intake lol

JK, I'm having a better time enjoying what fun the models are having with low pressure systems
Quoting 478. sar2401:

There's still a slight amount of hope for the Panhandle if the storms from Louisiana and the general motion can hold together. Our problem is the front is rapidly moving south, which will push that precipitation further offshore. The front is not through Eufaula yet, and it may stall just to my north before it does. If so, you may still get showers. Unfortunately, almost all the green stuff on radar is apparently virga.




Yeah the green stuff that went through Hurlburt today didn't even have enough sprinkles to wet the pavement. I'm hoping the second front coming down from the middle of the country pulls some of the rain North or brings some rain with it tonight and tomorrow morning as it pushes through with the cooler air.

NAVGEM has a weak but very broad low six days from now

Quoting 507. HurriHistory:



You've got to be kidding. You call that great?
Ye I do. I'm not looking for a category 5. And you shouldn't be either.
Can't browse here too much today...trying to watch my sodium intake lol

JK, I'm having a better time enjoying what fun the models are having with low pressure systems



i don't post anything out longer than 5 days...but yes....long range model watching has been fun the past two weeks
Quoting 510. ricderr:

people are a bit grumpy around here this morning.........let's all listen to our happy music...it's friday folks...the weekend awaits




There's only one grumpy person on here, you know, the one who thinks he the blog police. Anyway TGIF, I'm heading up to my hunting camp this weekend in SW Alabama where the low Sunday morning is going to be 55, haven't seen the 50's this far South since the Spring, looking forward to it even it will be short lived.
Man we really needed this rain thank you lord
Quoting 514. Camerooski:

Ye I do. I'm not looking for a category 5. And you shouldn't be either.


I guess the NHC isn't either, as they have assigned a 0% chance of this system developing in the next 5 days.
519. SLU
The AOI coming off of Africa looks to have fizzled out.
521. SLU
522. SLU
There's only one grumpy person on here, you know, the one who thinks he the blog police. Anyway TGIF, I'm heading up to my hunting camp this weekend in SW Alabama where the low Sunday morning is going to be 55, haven't seen the 50's this far South since the Spring, looking forward to it even it will be short lived.


we finally had our first day with a high under 90 this week.......looking forward to more this weekend and next week
The AOI south of the CV islands around 8N 23W is a large area with an elongated area of low pressure. The area at the moment is very disorganised and will take some time to get it's together. what is of concern is this system is very deep in the tropics and with this low latitude ,could turn out to be a low rider and one that could turn out to be a classical Cape Verde cyclone.
its looking good for us characters that picked slightly above average named storms this yr.
Quoting 508. FunnelVortex:



Maybe, but looking at this, the storm on the 6z run is probably a Sandy-like hybrid being fueled by the cold highs




whoa...
527. vis0
If it maintained its blobsation would that be "blobtexsizus" off the coast of ...duh...look its the only stretching this old body does
Quoting 349. unknowncomic:

Caribbean shear finally relaxes?




All that red is making me nervous...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015

Model performance continues to suffer, overdone with QPF over the
past 24 hours. Notable lack of decent moisture h8/h5 seen in
planview upper air data, keeping coverage limited despite forcing.
Also, little to no lightning, which was expected. We backed off
PoPs, except this morning along and north of Rte 13, and reduced
considerably the thunder element. There may be a slight uptick in
TSRA east sections later today, but not much. Not good news (lower
rain amounts) for some agricultural interests, especially west KY.
we're posting model runs I see..... This is a fun one!

Quoting 528. 62901IL:



All that red is making me nervous...


Why? That's high shear.
Quoting 531. ElConando:



Why? That's high shear.


That's shear? Oh. I'm good now.
Quoting 507. HurriHistory:



You've got to be kidding. You call that great?


It used to be that the peak of Hurricane season you would watch any blow up of disturbed weather. Now everyone's is afraid to comment because of ridicule. People used to come here to discuss the tropics and post there thoughts. The past several years the Atlantic Hurricane season has been dead to say the least. How can a storm sustain it's structure with all the dust particles in the air. Why is the dust from Africa last so long and why does it cover the whole Atlantic. The SST's can be boiling, dew points high but the dusty dry air can destroy a storm. Now some here say it's a El Nino year. It's the dry air that destroys a storm and the trade winds that spread the dry air across thousands of miles. We need Hurricanes in the Atlantic to cool the waters and give us rain. We all should be very concerned.
Quoting 494. FunnelVortex:

Holy...



Im sure 12z will drop this though.


Headed for Newfoundland?
Quoting 534. Articuno:



Headed for Newfoundland?


962mb, very large, probably a low end Cat 3. Dangerous situation.
Quoting 532. 62901IL:



That's shear? Oh. I'm good now.


Lol glad you are. If there was low shear in that area. The blog would have had 2k posts in anticipation of a Hurricane early next week.
Quoting 533. frank727:



It used to be that the peak of Hurricane season you would watch any blow up of disturbed weather. Now everyone's is afraid to comment because of ridicule. People used to come here to discuss the tropics and post there thoughts. The past several years the Atlantic Hurricane season has been dead to say the least. How can a storm sustain it's structure with all the dust particles in the air. Why is the dust from Africa last so long and why does it cover the whole Atlantic. The SST's can be boiling, dew points high but the dusty dry air can destroy a storm. Now some here say it's a El Nino year. It's the dry air that destroys a storm and the trade winds that spread the dry air across thousands of miles. We need Hurricanes in the Atlantic to cool the waters and give us rain. We all should be very concerned.


May I remind you 2012 made it to the V storm?

And yes, it is El Ninio. El Ninio causes dry air and high shear.
A flood warning has issued for the island of Dominica until 6 pm today and could be extended if conditions warrant it. This as a result of rains associated with remnants of TS Grace which is presently affected the island.
539. JRRP
Quoting 533. frank727:



It used to be that the peak of Hurricane season you would watch any blow up of disturbed weather. Now everyone's is afraid to comment because of ridicule. People used to come here to discuss the tropics and post there thoughts. The past several years the Atlantic Hurricane season has been dead to say the least. How can a storm sustain it's structure with all the dust particles in the air. Why is the dust from Africa last so long and why does it cover the whole Atlantic. The SST's can be boiling, dew points high but the dusty dry air can destroy a storm. Now some here say it's a El Nino year. It's the dry air that destroys a storm and the trade winds that spread the dry air across thousands of miles. We need Hurricanes in the Atlantic to cool the waters and give us rain. We all should be very concerned.


Except, that is not "any blow up of disturbed weather". It's specifically what is left of Grace. Luckily, in this case, the NHC is speaking to this and have assigned a 0% chance of development in the next 5 days. Could the NHC be wrong? Of course. But, it is not ridicule to point out the fact that this system has almost no chance of being more than a rain maker when other suggest it could develop. A healthy exchange of information is good for the blog.
I read the NHC's postmortem on Erika. She certainly caught me with my pants down. I was looking for 45mph wind on St. Croix, V.I. sometime after lunch. The storm didn't arrive here until around 7:00PM, AST. An area of convection broke lose from the main body of the storm and dove South across St. Croix later in the evening. My Davis Vantage Pro2 station recorded a peak gust of 81mph with sustained wind in the mid to upper 50's and frequent gusts well into the 60's.

Yesterday I finally finished clearing Yucca and other trees from my road and am still awaiting the power company to tidy up my electric lines. Not having put up shutters at the rear of the house, horizontal rain penetrated and carried accumulated dirt off the louvers, plastering the interior. Ouch.

I don't fault the forecast which was obviously wrong. Things happen, especially with Mother Nature. What I regret is my loss of confidence that 45 means 45. Next time instead of under reacting, I will over react which means more work. I note that as rem Grace approaches, I have not reacted at all (fingers crossed). As I write we have steady 20 mph gusting to 28 out of the East with increasing cloud cover and are looking for rainfall.
Quoting 537. FunnelVortex:



May I remind you 2012 made it to the V storm?

And yes, it is El Ninio. El Ninio causes dry air and high shear.


In 2012 most storms were fish storms. The one that stands out was Sandy. To go from 2004-2005 intense Hurricanes to what we have over 10 years later, nothing. We all have a extreme problem and not much time remaining.
Quoting 490. tampabaymatt:



The NHC is assigning a 0% chance of formation over the next 5 days. What do you think will come of this system after 5 days? You're currently stating that it's developing banding features while it's getting sheared apart. This is nothing more than an open wave that will bring rains to whatever land area it hits.


Sorry...had a lunch appointment and had to run out.

I do not think the remnants of Grace will develop into anything at all. My intention of my comments is how surprised I am to see that there is still evidence of rotation (which looked like a few bands trying to line up), and that NHC actually gave it near 0% chance (not zero), which I assume is because of the flair up of cold cloud tops this morning.

Even if it did somehow survive the dry air & sheer...and it did manage to find a sweet spot of conducive atmosphere, it still will be destroyed as it interacts with land, most likely Hispaniola.

Sorry for the confusion.
Lots of altocumulus this AM over the SF Bay Area as a midlevel low to the west pulls in the low to midlevel remnant moisture of Linda. SoCal observations sound similar. Remains to be seen if convection will be possible tonight or tomorrow. Longer range models are hinting at the arrival of the first frontal system next week. Past strong El Ninos have actually kicked in later into the normal rainy season, but everything is so whacked right now over the Pacific, who knows?
545. SLU
Quoting 541. Crucian:

I read the NHC's postmortem on Erika. She certainly caught me with my pants down. I was looking for 45mph wind on St. Croix, V.I. sometime after lunch. The storm didn't arrive here until around 7:00PM, AST. An area of convection broke lose from the main body of the storm and dove South across St. Croix later in the evening. My Davis Vantage Pro2 station recorded a peak gust of 81mph with sustained wind in the mid to upper 50's and frequent gusts well into the 60's.

Yesterday I finally finished clearing Yucca and other trees from my road and am still awaiting the power company to tidy up my electric lines. Not having put up shutters at the rear of the house, horizontal rain penetrated and carried accumulated dirt off the louvers, plastering the interior. Ouch.

I don't fault the forecast which was obviously wrong. Things happen, especially with Mother Nature. What I regret is my loss of confidence that 45 means 45. Next time instead of under reacting, I will over react which means more work. I note that as rem Grace approaches, I have not reacted at all (fingers crossed). As I write we have steady 20 mph gusting to 28 out of the East with increasing cloud cover and are looking for rainfall.


Are you in an elevated area?
Quoting 542. frank727:



In 2012 most storms were fish storms. The one that stands out was Sandy. To go from 2004-2005 intense Hurricanes to what we have over 10 years later, nothing. We all have a extreme problem and not much time remaining.


What exactly is the problem?
Quoting 542. frank727:



In 2012 most storms were fish storms. The one that stands out was Sandy. To go from 2004-2005 intense Hurricanes to what we have over 10 years later, nothing. We all have a extreme problem and not much time remaining.


Isaac was also a landfaller. And so was Beyral which was close to Hurricane strength on landfall.
548. viman
Quoting 539. JRRP:




SHIELDS UP!!!!
12Z UKMET getting agressive with future potential Atlantic storm


1200UTC 17.09.2015 144 (hours) 16.3N 49.9W 985 (mb) 63 (kt)


A very strange midlevel wind pattern in this 96 day prog. Might call this an "upsilon block", and in mid Pacific. Very odd.
Quoting 548. viman:



SHIELDS UP!!!!


Red alert! Battlestations!

NHC gives Ex-Grace 0% chance of redevelopment.
553. SLU
Quoting 549. nrtiwlnvragn:

12Z UKMET getting agressive with future potential Atlantic storm


1200UTC 17.09.2015 144 (hours) 16.3N 49.9W 985 (mb) 63 (kt)





63kts in 6 days giving the current state of the system might be a bit overdone but there's great agreement by the models that something's gonna happen soon.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 11 SEPTEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-108

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: BOTH THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AND WB-57 ARE TENTATIVELY
PLANNING RESEARCH MISSIONS ON SUNDAY THE 13TH SHOULD
CONDITIONS BE FAVORABLE. THE GLOBAL HAWK MISSION COULD
BE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.
visiting our good friends at the FSU tgenesis site....the cmc is playing old school dj.....spin after spin........

ecmwf aint playing the dj game....on strike.....

Quoting 553. SLU:



63kts in 6 days giving the current state of the system might be a bit overdone but there's great agreement by the models that something's gonna happen soon.
And they all show a very weak H to the north.
558. MahFL
Why would Grace re-appear on the Navy website ?
gfs looks at the CMC and says....what the????????

navgem says maybe off of africa...but still thinks the cmc is on crack

Highly anticipated cold front making it's way through

Quoting 562. tornadodude:

Highly anticipated cold front making it's way through




I was wundering whether or not it had moved thru Carbondale.
Forecast low for Round Rock tomorrow night is 59. Record is 55, from 1898.
Quoting 561. Gearsts:


One thing that makes the BOC low more ominous is that shear is forecasted to be below normal in some surrounding areas in October by the CFS.
566. Relix
Ex-Grace has a certain look to her...
Quoting 564. tornadodude:

Forecast low for Round Rock tomorrow night is 59. Record is 55, from 1898.
Forecast for Nashville is 51 degrees Sunday night..Which puts it in the top 5 coldest ever for the date..I,m sure they,ll tweak it a bit.
Quoting 566. Relix:

Ex-Grace has a certain look to her...


Looks like a tropical wave getting ripped apart by shear to me. Do you see something else?

A Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters from the bloggers et al.

Welcome to 55 !

Quoting 570. Patrap:


Is all of this moving into FL?
Has Grace always been up on the NRL? Or did it jusr recently get put back up?

NRL Grace
Quoting 562. tornadodude:

Highly anticipated cold front making it's way through




Fall is now on the way for you guys. We in C & S FL will have to wait until mid October.
Capital Weather Gang
‏@capitalweather
The active hurricane era that brought us Katrina and Sandy may be over
Quoting 568. tampabaymatt:



Looks like a tropical wave getting ripped apart by shear to me. Do you see something else?




30knt winds tearing @ EX Grace
Quoting 569. Patrap:

A Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters from the bloggers et al.

Welcome to 55 !




Heartiest Birthday wishes to You Dr! Many thanks for all of your expertise and meteorological/ Climatological competence over the years along with your team. This site has been so much more than just another blog for so many of us especially for those of us who have been recently tragically affected in the Nature Isle -Dominica Re: T.S. Erika. You and the rest of the treasured community continue to be a source of rich and reliable tropical weather discussions & outlooks when it mattered the most.

Keep Safe and God Bless!
nothing is zero percent. considering 30kt ul winds she aint doing bad. in the afternoon too.
Quoting 566. Relix:

Ex-Grace has a certain look to her...
The wave is leaving the convection behind.
12Z Euro now stalling the front out over the Tampa to Cape Canaveral area with 50's & 60's across the FL Panhandle even extending to Jax
Quoting 580. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro now stalling the front out over the Tampa to Cape Canaveral area with 50's & 60's across the FL Panhandle even extending to Jax


Lots of rain for the I-4 corridor as usual.
Quoting 581. tampabaymatt:



Lots of rain for the I-4 corridor as usual.


Yeah just Saturday thru early afternoon Sunday then it dries out until Tuesday when EX Grace arrives.
The CMC. LOL! The 12z has the remnants of Grace re-developing over the Bahamas, then intensifying and slamming into Myrtle beach!







Such a fun model to watch. :-p
Quoting 581. tampabaymatt:



Lots of rain for the I-4 corridor as usual.

Less than an inch so far in September, so it has been a bit dry lately.
too far out in time but it IS that time of year for the gulf storms........................
Quoting 585. HurrMichaelOrl:


Less than an inch so far in September, so it has been a bit dry lately.


I'm at 2.16" for September, all of which fell in two days. I got drummed by two separate thunderstorms last Sunday, and then picked up about a half inch on Labor Day. Other than those days, it's been thankfully dry after over 19" in August.
Quoting 580. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro now stalling the front out over the Tampa to Cape Canaveral area with 50's & 60's across the FL Panhandle even extending to Jax
590. 7544
Quoting 571. Camerooski:

Is all of this moving into FL?


if it is it will cover the whole state huge one there lol
Quoting 569. Patrap:

A Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters from the bloggers et al.

Welcome to 55 !


Happy Bday Doc, be joining that club in about 2 1/2 mos.

Received 1.5" from front #2, hasn't completely cleared out yet, but sun is trying to peek out. Sitting at 70, dew pt dropping fast, was 62 less than 15 min ago, now showing 59. 29.97" w/ 6-10 NE winds. Still sticking w/ a 45 low Sun. morning. Should be close to record levels, 43 was the 9th or 10ths for Mattoon, IL about 45 mi ENE of me on IL 16.
And Dmin is in full effect.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 584. fmbill:

The CMC. LOL! The 12z has the remnants of Grace re-developing over the Bahamas, then intensifying and slamming into Myrtle beach!







Such a fun model to watch. :-p


I've said it before, I'll say it again...some of those guys at the CMC must have had a bad vacation in Myrtle (it happens). It has a storm hitting it every month it seems.
I don't understand how the NHC comes up with a "0" percent chance of Grace redeveloping. Just looking at what has transpired on the satellite pictures the last two days they have to admit in their minds that something is breathing out there. They overestimated Erika and are underestimating the the possibility of Grace redeveloping.
Quoting 595. dartboardmodel:

I don't understand how the NHC comes up with a "0" percent chance of Grace redeveloping. Just looking at what has transpired on the satellite pictures the last two days they have to admit in their minds that something is breathing out there. They overestimated Erika and are underestimating the the possibility of Grace redeveloping.

Erika -- or rather, what's left of it -- is just an amplified tropical wave producing disorganized convection. Trade winds are accelerating ahead of the system, making it tougher for the disturbance to acquire a well-defined and closed circulation, and upper-level winds are westerly at 30 knots. No reliable model regenerates Erika. Why should it have more than a ~0% chance of development?
The Latest Satellite IR picks of Henri show a sort of dual LLCC. It's definitely reminiscent of Erika when she was land-falling in the islands on that fateful and tragic day of the 27th of August. Prolonged study of the available satellite & especially radar loops appear to confirm a more southerly Low level center of circulation at the time of impact especially for the island of the Commonwealth of Dominica, which amassed extremely intense convection and thunderstorms clusters that subsequently gave rise to the astronomical rainfall totals- triggering unprecedented flooding and flash flood damage on the island nation of Dominica. Again eerily similar to Etau's impact on Joso City in North east Japan- an accumulation of about 18.5 inches was recorded at my site here in the Nature Island, Dominica. Its definitely a more sombering and crucial indication of the deadly risks and threats associated with tropical storms. Case in point -Tropical storm Allison in Houston, Tx- 2001, that say its name being officially retired.
Erika's has unofficially been retired already in Dominica...

On the upside of things- extreme levels of hyper vigilance to the threat and associated impacts of Tropical systems have been generated across the island of Dominica- unfortunately in a reactive rather than pro-active manner due in no small way to the deadly passage and aftermath of Tropical storm Erika. Of course, while I maintain that the original failure to issue a warning or at least a watch for the island nation of Dominica- during the approach of Erika was inexcusable, and down right unprofessional & unacceptable- since the ordinary/ casual weather observer/ blogger could have easily perceived the impending; likely deadly impacts -nevertheless, its good to see that this time around pre-cautionary but extremely prudently decided & advised Flash flood warnings have been issued island wide today.
It remains to be seen whether or how soon storm/ hurricane amnesia will resettle once again among even the so called meteorological experts and forecasters on the island & by extension the Windward and Leeward islands
region.

May God continue to Richly Bless us All!
598. SLU
The EURO wants to end the Cape Verde season with a bang

Quoting 335. hurricanes2018:



no way!
Jose!
Quoting 598. SLU:

The EURO wants to end the Cape Verde season with a bang




SLU WHERE WERE YOU WHEN THE ORDER WAS GIVEN TO DESTROY FRANCE ?
SLU WHO GAVE THE ORDER TO DESTROY FRANCE?
SLU HOW MUCH CREAM DO I PUT IN MY COFFEE?
SLU HOW DO YOU LIKE YOUR FRENCH FRIES?!