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El Niño Expected to Increase Nuisance Coastal Flooding in U.S.

By: Jeff Masters 7:03 PM GMT on September 09, 2015

In the waters of the Eastern Pacific, strong westerly winds have pushed a massive amount of warm water against the coasts of the Americas, resulting in one of the strongest El Niño events ever observed. Not only does El Niño impact atmospheric patterns, changing storm tracks and suppressing Atlantic hurricane frequency, it also typically resulting in an increase in coastal “nuisance” flooding at high tide along the U.S. West Coast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Nuisance flooding is expensive, causing frequent road closures, overwhelmed storm water systems, and damage to infrastructure. According to a September 9 press release from NOAA, some cities along the mid-Atlantic coast can expect record amounts of “nuisance” flooding at high tide during the coming winter—at Sandy Hook, NJ, Lewes DE, Washington D.C. and Norfolk, VA.


Figure 1. Nuisance street flooding in Norfolk, Virginia on October 9, 2013, during passage of a front at high tide. In the background: on the right side is a church built in 1902 and now for sale largely due to frequent flooding, and in the middle behind the trees is the Chrysler Museum of Art that just completed renovation that include improvements to reduce the potential damage from flooding. Image credit: Tal Ezer, Old Dominion University.

How El Niño events cause more coastal flooding
Along the U.S. West Coast, El Niño wind patterns drive ocean currents that pile up water along the coast, raising sea level for many months. Recent satellite data show that ocean levels are elevated by 7 - 18 cm (3 - 7”) along the coast of North America, from California to Mexico. Along the mid‐Atlantic coast, atmospheric patterns during El Niño typically favor more and stronger winter storms along the coast that drive a higher frequency of storm surges. Both conditions have historically led to flooding during periods of seasonally high tides in the non-summer months. Along the U.S. West Coast, the nuisance flooding resulting from the El Niño-driven boost to the base water level is not a big deal during high tide--if it's a nice sunny day. However, the higher base sea level means that if a whopper storm does hit the coast during El Niño, the resulting storm surge could potentially do a lot more damage. Along the mid‐Atlantic coast, the storm surges from El Niño-related extratropical storms will not be riding up on top of an elevated base sea level like occurs on the West Coast.


Figure 2. Street flooding in Norfolk, Virginia has increased dramatically in recent years, largely due to global-warming induced sea level rise. However, part of the steep increase in Norfolk's flooding events may be due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its upper branch, the Gulf Stream. See the 2013 paper Ezer et al., Gulf Stream's induced sea level rise and variability along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. The top years for flooding in Norfolk, 1998 and 2009, both featured El Niño events, and a series of significant coastal storms (twin major Nor'easters in 1998, and the Veteran's Day Nor'easter of 2009.) Norfolk experienced eight nuisance flood days during the 2014 meteorological year (May 2014 through April 2015), and the new NOAA report predicts that the city may experience 18 days in meteorological year 2015 (May 2015 - April 2016), due to El Niño—125 percent above average. Image credit: Larry Atkinson.

“We know that nuisance flooding is happening more often because of rising sea levels, but it is important to recognize that weather and ocean patterns brought on by El Niño can compound this trend,” said co-author of the report, William Sweet. “By using the historic data that NOAA has collected from tide gauges for more than 50 years, we can better understand and anticipate how the weather patterns may affect nuisance flooding in these communities.”

Links
AP news story on the report by Seth Borenstein
Sea Level Rise Making Floods Routine for Coastal Cities, October 2014 story from Climate Central

Today (September 9) is the 50th anniversary of Category 3 Hurricane Betsy hitting Louisiana. Storm Surge expert Hal Needham has a blog post analyzing Betsy's storm surge.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a new Wednesday afternoon post, California Heat Wave While Much Cooler Temps overspread the East.

Jeff Masters

Flood Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Doc! Looks like people on the coast better have the sandbags ready.
Thank you for the update Dr. Masters-

I have this horrible image of flooded subways in NYC.

Anyway-

I'd suggest that we divide into wunder-friend teams for next season and place our best guesses as to the number of storms for 2016 and the winning wunder-friend team members of the team that gets close to the average number of storms by type get to appear on the Wunderground TV Show wearing their wunder-friend T-shirt and free membership for the next year.

What do you say, Dr. Masters?
Yeah I kinda doubt this...
And once again for TWC...

I'm glad to see Dave Schwartz back on TWC, even though he's been back for a while. HE needs to be running that WeatherUnderground show everyday! he's the perfect match for it and has the knowledge and personality to do it. Even Mike Bettes knows this.... that this guy should be the SHOW.

I've been watching that guy in the 90s as a kid and that guy is awesome. I would sit up late at night during the summers just to watch him because he was funny and knew how to discuss weather in a laymen's talk kind of way.

TWC if you're reading this, I HIGHLY recommend you pay attention to us Weather Undergrounders, we KNOW WEATHER and LIVE FOR WEATHER.

Dave Schwartz da Man
Quoting 3. FunnelVortex:

Yeah I kinda doubt this...

The Euro has been consistent in developing some sort of hurricane in Gulf.Keep a eye on things down there because some times people are caught of guard to how fast these storms can spin up.The storm in the Gulf will be the I storm it seems...but I know Kori would be very happy to finally have something to chase.
Thanks Dr. Masters.....
Quoting 2. rmbjoe1954:

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters-

I have this horrible image of flooded subways in NYC.

Anyway-

I'd suggest that we divide into wunder-friend teams for next season and place our best guesses as to the number of storms for 2016 and the winning wunder-friend team members of the team that gets close to the average number of storms by type get to appear on the Wunderground TV Show wearing their wunder-friend T-shirt and free membership for the next year.

What do you say, Dr. Masters?



Would the Wunder-Friends have to wear codpieces?
i gust doc dos not no that we have TD 8
Interesting article Doc, though I think you also mentioned before in one of your blog posts earlier this year that, while El Nino events can cause billions of dollars in coastal flooding and surge damage, it can also cause billions of dollars of profit due to bringing rainall where crops are harvested and other things like that. Though hopefully the east coast gets off easy this year from extratropical cyclones.

In the tropics...Linda, Kilo, and Jimena are dying down, TD 8 could become Henri briefly before heading out to sea, and Grace is dead...I'm sorry, but that storm was downright dis-Grace-ful.
Quoting 8. Tazmanian:

i gust doc dos not no that we have TD 8


Of course he knows. It was in his last blog entry. It is also going to be of little consequence to anyone, so....
isnt this doc 1st blog today? sorry have not been on


Quoting 7. cynyc2:



Would the Wunder-Friends have to wear codpieces?


lol
Quoting 11. Tazmanian:
isnt this doc 1st blog today? sorry have not been on




This is his 2nd blog of the day...
double blog post Wednesday

thanks doc
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For tropical depression eight.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

A tropical depression near Bermuda is forecast to develop into tropical storm Henri and track into Canadian waters.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 30.5 N 61.0 W.

About 300 km east-southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/hr.

Present movement: southeast at 3 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 1011 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The low is forecast to track northward over the next 2 days and develop into a tropical storm. At this stage it looks like this will be primarily a marine system moving south of Atlantic Canada. Closest approach to land will likely be Southeastern Newfoundland. The possibility of the storm crossing over land should not be ruled-out.

A. Wind.

Too soon to predict. Likely not an issue if track stays offshore.

B. Rainfall.

Too soon to predict. Southeast Newfoundland could receive rain from the system if it tracks close to land.

C. Surge/waves.

If the storm develops, rough surf would likely be experienced in Southern Newfoundland.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Interests in the eastern maritime waters and Southern Newfoundland waters should keep an eye on these forecasts for updated predictions. The system has the potential to bring gale to storm force winds on Friday and Saturday.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty/sparkes
FXCN31 CWHX 091800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.10 PM ADT
WEDNESDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2015.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
30.5 N AND LONGITUDE 61.0 W, ABOUT 786 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1455 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS (56 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1011 MB.
EIGHT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 2 KNOTS (4 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 09 3.00 PM 30.5N 61.0W 1011 30 56
SEP 10 3.00 AM 32.3N 61.0W 1010 35 65
SEP 10 3.00 PM 34.3N 60.9W 998 40 74
SEP 11 3.00 AM 37.2N 60.5W 995 45 83
SEP 11 3.00 PM 40.6N 58.6W 995 50 93
SEP 12 3.00 AM 44.0N 55.4W 990 50 93
SEP 12 3.00 PM 46.5N 51.0W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 AM 47.4N 44.7W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 13 3.00 PM 48.0N 36.2W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE WEST THEREFORE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SSTS BENEATH THE CIRCULATION
ARE BETWEEN 28 AND 30 DEGREES.


B. PROGNOSTIC

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALL MODELS TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO RETURN TO THE
CORE OF THE LOW. STRONG RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL DIRECT THE STORM
NORTHWARD THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH AND WEST COULD RESULT IN AN UNRELATED BAND OF RAIN TO
STALL OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
MERGES WITH THE BAND (FRONT).


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
09/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10/06Z 80 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10/18Z 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11/06Z 85 85 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11/18Z 90 90 20 0 40 40 10 0 0 0 0 0
12/06Z 90 95 65 0 40 45 30 0 0 0 0 0
12/18Z 90 100 90 0 40 50 40 0 0 0 0 0
13/06Z 90 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13/18Z 90 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END/SPARKES/FOGARTY

Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

The Euro has been consistent in developing some sort of hurricane in Gulf.Keep a eye on things down there because some times people are caught of guard to how fast these storms can spin up.The storm in the Gulf will be the I storm it seems...but I know Kori would be very happy to finally have something to chase.


Wind shear is very high in the Gulf right now. Unless that changes, nothing like what the Euro is showing will happen.
Quoting 4. RitaEvac:

And once again for TWC...

I'm glad to see Dave Schwartz back on TWC, even though he's been back for a while. HE needs to be running that WeatherUnderground show everyday! he's the perfect match for it and has the knowledge and personality to do it. Even Mike Bettes knows this.... that this guy should be the SHOW.

I've been watching that guy in the 90s as a kid and that guy is awesome. I would sit up late at night during the summers just to watch him because he was funny and knew how to discuss weather in a laymen's talk kind of way.

TWC if you're reading this, I HIGHLY recommend you pay attention to us Weather Undergrounders, we KNOW WEATHER and LIVE FOR WEATHER.

Dave Schwartz da Man


Dave Shwartz & Vivan Brown was the dynamic duo back in the 90's. That is when TWC IMO was @ its best. Then you had John Hope giving us the Tropical Updates every 21 & 51 of each hour.
Quoting 17. tampabaymatt:



Wind shear is very high in the Gulf right now. Unless that changes, nothing like what the Euro is showing will happen.
I didn't say it will play out like that exactly,what I was pointing out was the consistency of the model in showing some sort of storm.Rather It be a weak T.D or a hurricane we do not know but we know that some sort of tropical or subtropical entity will be in the gulf next week.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

The Euro has been consistent in developing some sort of hurricane in Gulf.Keep a eye on things down there because some times people are caught of guard to how fast these storms can spin up.The storm in the Gulf will be the I storm it seems...but I know Kori would be very happy to finally have something to chase.


Humberto ring a bell anyone?
Quoting 17. tampabaymatt:



Wind shear is very high in the Gulf right now. Unless that changes, nothing like what the Euro is showing will happen.


Even if it does it will take time as well. Another thing is the Euro keeps pushing the system out in time and has no support from its ensemble members.
Plot twist if TD 8 doesn't get named :P

Fear the H storm ..what?
Quoting 125. dabirds:

Joining Gro, hydrus, & others on team Tubby. Like them, that certainly wouldn't be what I'd be called normally.

Had a little over .5" yesterday in downpour, then a little over .3" this a.m. Sun starting to break through and temp already to forecast high of 79, so may go above. Press up to almost 30", dew pt down to 66, so no HX in S C IL. Light E-ENE winds. Have dropped that Sun morning low into upper 40s now hydrus. Site I get station weather and forecast from has Mon morning back in 50s, but TWC showed mid 40s, guess we'll see.

With the passing of One Tough Dominican yesterday, kind of hope a gentle TS Joaquin (that would reflect his off field personality & deeds) would bring beneficial rains to the Northern Islands, PR, & of course the Dominican Republic.
Of course new blog while posting:)
Quoting 21. RitaEvac:



Humberto ring a bell anyone?


I would love to see a Gulf system form but I just don't think the system will build as fast as the Euro shows. These systems that form off old fronts typically takes lots of time to get their act together. One thing for sure the Euro is insistent on a West Gulf system.
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:



Dave Shwartz & Vivan Brown was the dynamic duo back in the 90's. That is when TWC IMO was @ its best. Then you had John Hope giving us the Tropical Updates every 21 & 51 of each hour.


John Hope, Vivian Brown, Jim Cantore, Stu Ostro, Mike Seidel, Bill Keneely, Cheryl Lemke, Kristina Abernathy, Rich Johnson, Terri Smith, who else we missing
WU needs to add more personalities, pretty sure there are more major weather symbols out there. Case in point:

Quoting 89. TropicalAnalystwx13:

“Steady as it goes” is your motto. Just like Claude, you are considerate and never rain on anyone’s parade. Even if things try to bring you down, you always rise above and elevate others around you. You don’t conform easily and shy away from pomp and circumstance in favor of keeping things casual. Your optimism envelops everyone around you, and you’re always there to comfort and protect those around you.


There is no way this is you, Cods. From our time in WU chat...no way do you "never rain on anyone's parade". All of the bold is definitely not you.

For the record, it gave me Claude as well, which I vehemently disagree with. "Even if things try to bring you down (like TA in WU chat)" >.<

----

So...how's the weather? Today it is hot and humid (relatively), in low 90s here in central PA. Lot of northern kids complainin'. Yankees are funny.
Regarding the higher frequency of coastal flooding.......

Might there be the possibility (along w/ all the aforementioned environmental factors) the man has "paved paradise & put up a parking lot"?

Drainage ain't percolating like it used to, eh?
Thanks Doc.
Why don't we host WUTV? I mean we ain't meteorologists, but can't we rotate out 2 hosts every day??

Which 2 are hosting first?
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:



Dave Shwartz & Vivan Brown was the dynamic duo back in the 90's. That is when TWC IMO was @ its best. Then you had John Hope giving us the Tropical Updates every 21 & 51 of each hour.


I have to agree. The Weather Channel was at its best from like 1990 to 2005 time frame. After that not really a big fan of it anymore.

Eric
Quoting 23. JrWeathermanFL:

Plot twist if TD 8 doesn't get named :P

Fear the H storm ..what?


No, no, no, we want Henri to be the system near Bermuda, that way the Euro can have fun with the dreaded I-storm, Ida, in the GOM.
Quoting 27. Astrometeor:

WU needs to add more personalities, pretty sure there are more major weather symbols out there. Case in point:



There is no way this is you, Cods. From our time in WU chat...no way do you "never rain on anyone's parade". All of the bold is definitely not you.

For the record, it gave me Claude as well, which I vehemently disagree with. "Even if things try to bring you down (like TA in WU chat)" >.<

----

So...how's the weather? Today it is hot and humid (relatively), in low 90s here in central PA. Lot of northern kids complainin'. Yankees are funny.

a slow cool down is in progress in Ontario
by sat morning we could see high 40's low 50's for lows and 64 to 66 for a high during the day Saturday with some cool rain showers

right now 77 humidex 85 a lot better that the 105's we had the last 5 days or so
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

I didn't say it will play out like that exactly,what I was pointing out was the consistency of the model in showing some sort of storm.Rather It be a weak T.D or a hurricane we do not know but we know that some sort of tropical or subtropical entity will be in the gulf next week.


I don't think that's a certainty, but we will see. I find it interesting that one of the reliable models is consistently showing this, when wind shear has been very high in the Gulf for a while now.
What was amazing about this event is that it was dead calm as that thing was just offshore Galveston going NE, it was misting and calm. That thing was a vort system as 90mph winds were just to our east in High Island with power poles and trees going down. Weirdest thing I've ever witnessed.

Fall is coming...finally.

Circulation slowly getting under that convection.
In other words, it was a non event and no one has any recollection of Humberto in my area. I mean NO ONE. Basically never existed.
Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fall is coming...finally.




Come here to Orlando as Fall seems to wait another 6 weeks or longer from you guys up north. plenty of thunderstorms everyday for you too Orlando is now over 46" for the year and average for the whole year is 48" to 50" so we are already just about there.
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a slow cool down is in progress in Ontario
by sat morning we could see high 40's low 50's for lows and 64 to 66 for a high during the day Saturday with some cool rain showers

right now 77 humidex 85 a lot better that the 105's we had the last 5 days or so


Supposed to see a nice soaker tomorrow. Showers are encroaching now, but the main event is still far off. Might get around an inch of rain, which may flood campus because drainage was never thought about when they built this place, lol. Turns out the sidewalks are often positioned in the lowest spots or next to places that are drainages, like the creek and the Pond on campus. It's beautiful until you have to slosh through 4" of standing water.
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:



Come here to Orlando as Fall seems to wait another 6 weeks or longer from you guys up north. plenty of thunderstorms everyday for you too Orlando is now over 46" for the year and average for the whole year is 48" to 50" so we are already just about there.
go way scott u in fla don' get fall or winter just cools off a little to a cool/warm summer pattern till spring then yer at hot summer pattern
Anyway possibly low to mid 60s this weekend into next week, (for lows) should keep any storm away from SE TX, remains to be seen what a system does once the warm front shifts back north bringing the soup and whatever system back north
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:



Come here to Orlando as Fall seems to wait another 6 weeks or longer from you guys up north. plenty of thunderstorms everyday for you too Orlando is now over 46" for the year and average for the whole year is 48" to 50" so we are already just about there.


This front coming down soon is pretty potent for this time of the year. It won't pack enough of a punch to clear the FL peninsula, but maybe it's a sign we're due soon.
Quoting 40. Astrometeor:



Supposed to see a nice soaker tomorrow. Showers are encroaching now, but the main event is still far off. Might get around an inch of rain, which may flood campus because drainage was never thought about when they built this place, lol. Turns out the sidewalks are often positioned in the lowest spots or next to places that are drainages, like the creek and the Pond on campus. It's beautiful until you have to slosh through 4" of standing water.
over night likely after midnight humid conditions will be pushed out lows will get to 57 tomorrows high 75

we have same thing here across the street called kennedy commons nice shopping area only problem when it rains heavy or prolonged the lot fills with water why cause they built the place on a small pond bog area with a small creek that's all piped under the plaza but the rain knows there is a pond there tries to make one everytime it rains
Quoting 30. JrWeathermanFL:

Why don't we host WUTV? I mean we ain't meteorologists, but can't we rotate out 2 hosts every day??

Which 2 are hosting first?


I just want to be a pundit. I've been practicing my arm waving and everything. :)
patrap I hope the euro does not verify but.......................................
Quoting 34. tampabaymatt:



I don't think that's a certainty, but we will see. I find it interesting that one of the reliable models is consistently showing this, when wind shear has been very high in the Gulf for a while now.
Someone will be getting rain.I just pointed out the consistency of the model no one is making a forecast or calling for definitive solutions.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

The Euro has been consistent in developing some sort of hurricane in Gulf.Keep a eye on things down there because some times people are caught of guard to how fast these storms can spin up.The storm in the Gulf will be the I storm it seems...but I know Kori would be very happy to finally have something to chase.


I'm not saying a storm in the gulf is unlikely. But the intensity seems to be way overblown.
Hope we get more bogus storms out in the Atlantic,maybe we will have a active season on paper anyways.
GFS for once has no gulf storms thru the period.
There's a Woolly Bear in our backyard that's full black.. no orange or brown stripe.. I know it's a legend that may or may not be true, sort of a superstition, but what could this mean for the winter? :P
The CMC puts this over the eastern Great Lakes and has it go from east to west. lol

Quoting 48. LargoFl:

patrap I hope the euro does not verify but.......................................


General Chang has one eye on it.
Looks like the Golden Nugget in Lake Charles is the bulls eye next week
54. Articuno
8:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2015
There's a Woolly Bear in our backyard that's full black.. no orange or brown stripe.. I know it's a legend that may or may not be true, sort of a superstition, but what could this mean for the winter? :P



well I guess starting 15th of sept or just after I will revamp my blog to fall winter graphics 2015/2016
Quoting 46. Naga5000:



I just want to be a pundit. I've been practicing my arm waving and everything. :)



We need to book this Guy Naga, asap.

Did Pat bring the gumbo ?

He may have posted it in the main ya know...



A bit more concerning this run..

Quoting 62. hydrus:

A bit more concerning this run..




Aint that cute, lil Humberto Jr
Quoting 59. RitaEvac:

Looks like the Golden Nugget in Lake Charles is the bulls eye next week


They do have a wicked buffet most the time. Nickel slotz pay mo too.
Having lived in the Hampton Roads area for a time, the flooding can get bad there. Even on the military base I was stationed at the drainage was, to put it mildly, a joke. I realize this is a bit different than the flooding Dr.Masters is referring to, but the drainage situation up there doesn't help.
Quoting 64. Patrap:



They do have a wicked buffet most the time. Nickel slotz pay mo too.


That's ol Tillman Fertitta's joint. The Galveston now Houston boy. Just a multi-billionaire.
Herman's Hermits cyclone sometime tonight?
Quoting 54. Articuno:

There's a Woolly Bear in our backyard that's full black.. no orange or brown stripe.. I know it's a legend that may or may not be true, sort of a superstition, but what could this mean for the winter? :P


According to superstition, the amount of black on the woolly bear's bristle coating forecasts the severity of the coming winter. Ferree says, "It is the relative proportions of the black and reddish-brown portions of the caterpillar that are supposed to predict the winter." The longer the black segments on the ends of the caterpillar, the harsher the coming winter.

Source
Quoting 63. RitaEvac:



Aint that cute, lil Humberto Jr


Humberto was a sneaky little turd. Sunshine when i went to bed, eye a hurricane going over my house when i woke up.
Quoting 1. ClimateChange:

Thanks for the update Doc! Looks like people on the coast better have the sandbags ready.


or exit strategy... if "nuisance" flooding is affecting them now, their location is doomed.
Quoting 63. RitaEvac:



Aint that cute, lil Humberto Jr
Humberto was 985 MB at its lowest, with 90 mph winds. Both GFS and CMC have something in the gulf. Euro has not done well with systems that havent formed, but hypothetically, if this was 972 MB that far offshore, a dangerous storm would be a real possibility. This has it at 971 MB's.

#wutv


Rule's....


very interesting post! We in the Keys are very sensitive to tidal flooding, but it appears this isn't going to be a large impact to us. Usually it's the lunar cycles that drive the highest high tides, outside of surges
From wundermap 180 hrs


Quoting 21. RitaEvac:



Humberto ring a bell anyone?


A lil' :)

Quoting 1. ClimateChange:

Thanks for the update Doc! Looks like people on the coast better have the sandbags ready.

In a few more years they will need to evolve and grow webbed feet!
Quoting 26. RitaEvac:



John Hope, Vivian Brown, Jim Cantore, Stu Ostro, Mike Seidel, Bill Keneely, Cheryl Lemke, Kristina Abernathy, Rich Johnson, Terri Smith, who else we missing
I can name a few others: Bob Stokes, Marny Stanier, Jill Brown, Mark Mancuso, Alexandra Steele, Janetta Jones. I miss these folks. Can anyone else name a few more?
Quoting 3. FunnelVortex:

Yeah I kinda doubt this...



FWIW the ECMWF has been pretty consistent the last 48 hours with a solution like this. I'm not sold yet, but it's something we should keep an eye on.
Hey Gro, Keep meant to tell you guys earlier, I have seen a lot more Monarchs this summer in C IL. Hope to see more next year as one of my Prairie Grass fields for CRP will be converted to a Pollinator Habitat when reenrolled into the program. Seed was rather expensive, but happy to get a more varied habitat for the wildlife in place.

Did break the forecast high of 79 after all, now 81. Dew pt down a couple to 64 and pressure down a little as well, 29.93". Still light easterlies, as well. Oh, and avoided a Baby Bear sweep at home today:)
Quoting 34. tampabaymatt:



I don't think that's a certainty, but we will see. I find it interesting that one of the reliable models is consistently showing this, when wind shear has been very high in the Gulf for a while now.


We used to have an insurance adjuster, Sheryl, here and she always killed me when she asked 'well, what do the more *unreliable* models think [storm under discussion] is gonna do?

I just want to know what the 'cold' front now draped over TX is going to do.. my instinct is stall as it ran into areas of severe drought positive feedback loop. We stripped Linda clean, took about as long as it did with Kevin, but all that moisture has been greedily slurped up by the ATL, which plans on doing nothing with it. Bogart.
Quoting 80. dabirds:

Hey Gro, Keep meant to tell you guys earlier, I have seen a lot more Monarchs this summer in C IL. Hope to see more next year as one of my Prairie Grass fields for CRP will be converted to a Pollinator Habitat when reenrolled into the program. Seed was rather expensive, but happy to get a more varied habitat for the wildlife in place.

Did break the forecast high of 79 after all, now 81. Dew pt down a couple to 64 and pressure down a little as well, 29.93". Still light easterlies, as well. Oh, and avoided a Baby Bear sweep at home today:)


Two of our neighbors have plants and bushes that attract butterflies. There were an enormous amount of monarchs and others all summer. First year we saw so many.
A bit of an explanation of the differences in model runs

Houston

THE 12Z ECMWF IS BACK TRENDING TOWARDS SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS HAS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IF ANYTHING. THIS SYSTEM THEN TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO
THE NW GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RATHER SLOWLY. THE GFS
SHOWS QUITE A BIT MORE SW SHEAR OVER THE NW GULF DURING THIS TIME
WHERE THE ECMWF HAS WEAKER WSW SHEAR. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CHANGING
ITS TIMING OF WHEN DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BE IT ON DAY 5 ONE RUN OR
DAY 6-7 ON THE NEXT. THE TRENDS WITH THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN BUT HAVE A TROPICAL SIGNAL
NONETHELESS THAT WARRANTS AT LEAST MONITORING. AT THIS POINT ALL
WE CAN REALLY SAY IS THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS FOR
THE DAY 6/7 FORECAST. WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS JUST ONE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST. STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL ELEVATE
TIDE LEVELS AND SURF ALONG THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF THIS IT IS TOO
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TO DISCUSS ANY DETAILS IN THE
FORECAST OR IMPACTS.
Quoting 82. Grothar:



Two of our neighbors have plants and bushes that attract butterflies. There were an enormous amount of monarchs and others all summer. First year we saw so many.


Butterfly bushes and milkweed. Saw one monarch on campus this fall, back home they have been missing for several years now. Sad. Hopefully yours come more north next year.
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

go way scott u in fla don' get fall or winter just cools off a little to a cool/warm summer pattern till spring then yer at hot summer pattern


Only the panhandle really has true seasons in Florida. Though compared to Miami, Orlando is an icebox.
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:



Dave Shwartz & Vivan Brown was the dynamic duo back in the 90's. That is when TWC IMO was @ its best. Then you had John Hope giving us the Tropical Updates every 21 & 51 of each hour.


Vivan Brown did not know her East from her West nor did she know anything about Hurricanes. What she did know was how to say "We'll keep you posted" and "I'll tell ya what" We use to cringe everytime she did the tropical update. UGH! I do wish her the best, as long as she stays away from any and all network news.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 416 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF GEM...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COLBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REXFORD...GEM...MENLO...MINGO AND HALFORD.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 69.
Quoting 79. CybrTeddy:



FWIW the ECMWF has been pretty consistent the last 48 hours with a solution like this. I'm not sold yet, but it's something we should keep an eye on.


Again, I'm not doubting a gulf storm. It's the intensity that doesn't seem likely to me
How ironic it would be for us to have another "I" named storm here in the Houston area, nearly or just past 7 years after Ike.
Quoting 74. ConchConvert:

very interesting post! We in the Keys are very sensitive to tidal flooding, but it appears this isn't going to be a large impact to us. Usually it's the lunar cycles that drive the highest high tides, outside of surges


A full moon tide rips through that little channel between boca chica and cow key. Really tight quarters there, an easy place to run aground. The bullsharks like to hang out there too, good spot for an ambush.
Quoting 88. FunnelVortex:



Again, I'm not doubting a gulf storm. It's the intensity that doesn't seem likely to me




Earlier TX mets were talking about a cut-off low from the cool front descending into the GOM.. as you can see there are no vort suspects at the surface that could spin up that big that fast. There is a weak TWave in the SECAR that hasn't budged for days.
VERY appropriate for Dr. Masters to have two blog posts today, El Dia de los Nios (at least here in Costa Rica), discussing the effects of El Nio. Thanks for the celebration -- the nios will love it.

Also, I believe I have read that part of the cause of increased "nuisance" flooding in Norfolk is subsidence -- can't blame it all on El Nio and sea level rise. :-)

Just missed me....
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150909 1745 30.6 60.6 T2.0/2.0 08L NONAME
20150909 1145 30.7 60.9 T2.0/2.0 08L NONAME
20150909 0545 31.3 61.6 T1.5/1.5 08L NONAME
20150908 2345 31.5 61.6 T1.0/1.0 92L 92L
We Want Rain ! We want Rain !
Please flood us in SXM - SBH -AXA
We Want Rain ! We want Rain !
Our local met says a cyclone will be pulled into the GOM from the Pacific and it might be significant.
Quoting 68. Grothar:




Hi Gro-
I thought the fat lady sang her swan song for grace.
Heavy downpours in Orange County, CA from Linda presumably. Might get 0.5 inches. Temperature dropped 20 degrees to 72 in an hour.
100. FOREX
18Z GFS tried to spin up something in the GOM but went poof very fast.
Quoting 97. MahFL:

Our local met says a cyclone will be pulled into the GOM from the Pacific and it might be significant.


Please tell me it's not Tim Deegan. My "go to" guy for Jax area weather and in general is Mike Buresh.
Quoting 92. CaneFreeCR:

VERY appropriate for Dr. Masters to have two blog posts today, El Dia de los Ni�os (at least here in Costa Rica), discussing the effects of El Ni�o. Thanks for the celebration -- the ni�os will love it.

Also, I believe I have read that part of the cause of increased "nuisance" flooding in Norfolk is subsidence -- can't blame it all on El Ni�o and sea level rise. :-)



Don't know if it is el Niño or not but flooding has been a constant in Norfolk and parts of VA Beach since I first moved there in 1988. That was one of the major reasons that I moved from the area. Even a minor hurricane or Nor'easter could easily cause major flooding and often did. Subsidence is an issue but so is sea level rise. The loss of island acreage in the Chesapeake Bay is not from subsidence but sea level rise.
Quoting 100. FOREX:

18Z GFS tried to spin up something in the GOM but went poof very fast.
May you post the frame please?
18Z GFS is up to 222 hours and shows nothing developing in the GOM. It will be interesting to see which model wins this one.
GFS only puts a 109 mb - 110 mb low in the GOM for a few frames. That's it.
Well actually a 107 mb pops up for one frame in the BOC and then pops back up over the Yucatan.
Enough for an upgrade huh
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2015 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 30:39:05 N Lon : 60:23:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1004.5mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.2 2.2

Center Temp : +20.4C Cloud Region Temp : 6.2C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.74^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.1 degrees

Quoting 105. Sfloridacat5:

GFS only puts a 109 mb - 110 mb low in the GOM for a few frames. That's it.


Let's hope it's not "only" 109-110 MB. Storm surge might make it to St Louis.

I know what you meant cat5. :)

Here's where to 1007 mb low pops up for one frame. But nothing stays or tries to develop.
Quoting 107. StAugustineFL:



Let's hope it's not "only" 109-110 MB. Storm surge might make it to St Louis.

I know what you meant cat5. :)




Yeah, will have to see if the GFS comes around and eventually joins the Euro. Right now the GFS is not on board with a GOM system.
111. MahFL
Quoting 101. StAugustineFL:



Please tell me it's not Tim Deegan. My "go to" guy for Jax area weather and in general is Mike Buresh.


It was Tim.
drought.buster.latin.america
Quoting 107. StAugustineFL:



Let's hope it's not "only" 109-110 MB. Storm surge might make it to St Louis.

I know what you meant cat5. :)




And everyone would suffocate from the lack of air pressure!
Quoting 85. ElConando:



Only the panhandle really has true seasons in Florida. Though compared to Miami, Orlando is an icebox.
my idea of an ice box is minus 20c or colder
108. Sfloridacat5
Lol.GFS spotty rain showers ECWMF shows deepening hurricane.Really bad agreement among the models but we'll never know until we have a physical entity out there.
NOAA tide gauge data including subsidence:

Link
canyonboy sorry think you edited the post just as I banned ya and removed it u be back in a couple of minutes
Quoting 92. CaneFreeCR:
VERY appropriate for Dr. Masters to have two blog posts today, El Dia de los Niños (at least here in Costa Rica), discussing the effects of El Niño. Thanks for the celebration -- the niños will love it.

Also, I believe I have read that part of the cause of increased "nuisance" flooding in Norfolk is subsidence -- can't blame it all on El Niño and sea level rise. :-)
Funny how scientists and other knowledgeable people NEVER say that Norfolk is flooding solely because of AGW/CC related sea level rise, but those who deny AGW/CC or call it a hoax say that they do.

In addition to SLR and subsidence, prevailing winds and ocean currents are among other factors that contribute to variability in sea level relative to land masses. Good reading about some of the lesser known factors HERE and HERE.
8:45 PM ADT Wednesday 09 September 2015
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For tropical depression eight.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 AM ADT.

Tropical depression eight near Bermuda is forecast to develop into tropical storm Henri and track into Canadian waters.

1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 31.0 N 60.5 W.

About 420 km east-southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/hr.

Present movement: quasi-stationary.

Minimum central pressure: 1009 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

The low is forecast to track northward over the next 2 days and develop into a tropical storm. At this stage it looks like this will be primarily a marine system moving south of Atlantic Canada. Closest approach to land will likely be Southeastern Newfoundland. The possibility of the storm crossing over land should not be ruled out.

A. Wind.

Too soon to predict. Likely not an issue if track stays offshore.

B. Rainfall.

Too soon to predict. Southeast Newfoundland could receive rain from the system if it tracks close to land. An unrelated front is expected to stall over New Brunswick on Friday due in part to the presence of the tropical system.

C. Surge/waves.

If the storm develops, rough surf would likely be experienced in Southern Newfoundland.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Interests in the eastern maritime waters and Southern Newfoundland waters should keep an eye on these forecasts for updated predictions. The system has the potential to bring gale to storm force winds on Friday and Saturday.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty/mercer
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

108. Sfloridacat5
Lol.GFS spotty rain showers ECWMF shows deepening hurricane.Really bad agreement among the models but we'll never know until we have a physical entity out there.
Exactly. Come Sunday the models will begin to make some sense. Right now it's just grasping.
Oops my comment didn't post. Come Sunday everyone can have a much better idea of what if anything to expect. Right now it's just staring at screens. Models won't make sense til sunday
Quoting 35. RitaEvac:

What was amazing about this event is that it was dead calm as that thing was just offshore Galveston going NE, it was misting and calm. That thing was a vort system as 90mph winds were just to our east in High Island with power poles and trees going down. Weirdest thing I've ever witnessed.


My Grandma said the same thing about hurricane King. She lived on Biscayne Blvd, and the whole place was pretty much ripped apart, but just west of the airport looked virtually untouched. She used the word " vicious " to describe the winds, and that the pea rock used on the roofs back then smashed all the windows out of everything , especially the jalosy windows which were popular then, broke easily, and made a terrible sound. Cars not protected looked like they were blasted with gigantic birdshot, and windows broken out of them too.The winds were 130 mph at landfall, but weakened rather quickly.
Still talking about Grace? zzzzzzzzzzzz'
Quoting 113. FunnelVortex:



And everyone would suffocate from the lack of air pressure!


I had to think about it... only thing that could create 110mb low would be a comet or meteor shaving a good slice off our troposphere.

Force field over the Caribbean
Quoting 123. redwagon:



I had to think about it... only thing that could create 110mb low would be a comet or meteor shaving a good slice off our troposphere.


And even then it would fill in pretty fast. It wouldn't last long enough for any sort of weather system to develop.
Quoting 123. redwagon:



I had to think about it... only thing that could create 110mb low would be a comet or meteor shaving a good slice off our troposphere.

what would the wind speed be? yikes
127. Wrass
Yes.. Quote # 78. John Hope times 3. A friend of mine ok. Ok! Not rocket science. Follow the Highs And Lows go in between. My opinion . Adjust North west... South east 10 degrees. Because of Sw sheer. Re. Sw Carib Gof . This time of year and going forward. The model thing is nothing but a joke.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eight, located about three hundred miles east-southeast
of Bermuda.

A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Thursday. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the weekend as it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
131. Wrass
Ok!!
Quoting 126. Starhopper:


what would the wind speed be? yikes
2000 mph with gusts too 2500 strip everything down to the bedrock


fish storm here!!
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Linda, located about 300 miles south-southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the coast of
Central America are associated with a tropical wave. An area of low
pressure is expected to develop in association with the wave later
this week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for
gradual development of this low while it moves generally
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
NHC awesome again, right on with Grace. Thank goodness some here aren't running the NHC. If they were, this is what we'd read...... "So, while the Philippines are under the gun now, the Caiman Islands need to keep an eye on this one! Shortly after crossing the Philippines, the storm is likely to reverse coarse, traverse the Pacific Eastward, cross over into the Gulf and make a B-line for the Caimans." "All waves coming off of Africa will go South and West, once again putting the Caimans in the line of the imminent hurricane to be; all storms will likely take this path the remainder of the season." Satire of coarse! WKC, while ever serious, manages to keep it light here with his insights. He makes the bold predictions.


here we go again!!!
Nearly three weeks after it formed, we're probably going to lose Kilo tomorrow. Heading for the high latitudes. Quite a storm. Little disappointed in its ACE output, it could've been a monster in that category. Really struggled for its first week, briefly became a strong cyclone, but never re-intensified much in the West Pac despite model forecasts for such. Dry air ingestion. It and Jimena, which we're also likely to lose tomorrow (it's down to a TD), both produced about 40 ACE units. Atlantic season-to-date is about 25 units.

Quoting 132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2000 mph with gusts too 2500 strip everything down to the bedrock

surge? lol
Quoting 138. Starhopper:


surge? lol
that wont be important there be no one too see it anyway
someday we will see a hurricane with winds up to 200 mph


nice tropical wave
144. FOREX
Quoting 140. nrtiwlnvragn:


Is this one headed for the cemetery?
Quoting 141. hurricanes2018:

someday we will see a hurricane with winds up to 200 mph


not this season.
Link
Just came across that site...looks pretty cool. Hurricane Science and Society.
If you click around there is a ton of stuff. Beginner information and more technical history.

147. vis0

Quoting 2. rmbjoe1954:

Thank you for the update Dr. Masters-

I have this horrible image of flooded subways in NYC.

Anyway-

I'd suggest that we divide into wunder-friend teams for next season and place our best guesses as to the number of storms for 2016 and the winning wunder-friend team members of the team that gets close to the average number of storms by type get to appear on the Wunderground TV Show wearing their wunder-friend T-shirt and free membership for the next year.

What do you say, Dr. Masters?

in case no has said this...i choose to be on ON DR MASTERS TEAM..
Quoting 145. FunnelVortex:



not this season.
maybe waiting for a long time more like the year 2020!!
Quoting 148. hurricanes2018:

maybe waiting for a long time more like the year 2020!!


No one can really know what the 2020 season will be like. We can hardly predict storms a few days from now.
So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.
152. FOREX
Quoting 151. DavidHOUTX:

So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.
I suggest you have a private consultation with Grothar. He is the Wisest of the Wise, when it comes to the wise.
153. beell
Quoting 118. Xulonn:

Funny how scientists and other knowledgeable people NEVER say that Norfolk is flooding solely because of AGW/CC related sea level rise, but those who deny AGW/CC or call it a hoax say that they do.

In addition to SLR and subsidence, prevailing winds and ocean currents are among other factors that contribute to variability in sea level relative to land masses. Good reading about some of the lesser known factors HERE and HERE.


With respect to Norfolk, Va and its prominence in the post, it would not have hurt to at least give passing mention to studies that attribute approximately half of the relative sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay the Norfolk area to land subsidence.

Land Subsidence and Relative
Sea-Level Rise in the Southern
Chesapeake Bay Region/usgs.gov-2013

Quoting 151. DavidHOUTX:

So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.


And all the Texas Sages are blooming. It must have to be a rapid spinup, maybe a cut-off low. I just don't see anything EPAC that could pull it off.
Quoting 144. FOREX:

Is this one headed for the cemetery?
What's your best guess? Just ignore the rest of the season....
Quoting 153. beell:



With respect to Norfolk, Va and its prominence in the post, it would not of hurt to at least give passing mention to studies that attribute approximately half of the relative sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay the Norfolk area to land subsidence.

Land Subsidence and Relative
Sea-Level Rise in the Southern
Chesapeake Bay Region/usgs.gov-2013


Let's not bring that geology stuff into the discussion now.

Is it even raining there? ; )

Catch yah later all. Good info.
Quoting 142. Starhopper:


NAVGEM really likes the AOI about to exit Africa. Gonna need magic to avoid "shear destruction" though.
Quoting 135. DeepSeaRising:

NHC awesome again, right on with Grace. Thank goodness some here aren't running the NHC. If they were, this is what we'd read...... "So, while the Philippines are under the gun now, the Caiman Islands need to keep an eye on this one! Shortly after crossing the Philippines, the storm is likely to reverse coarse, traverse the Pacific Eastward, cross over into the Gulf and make a B-line for the Caimans." "All waves coming off of Africa will go South and West, once again putting the Caimans in the line of the imminent hurricane to be; all storms will likely take this path the remainder of the season." Satire of coarse! WKC, while ever serious, manages to keep it light here with his insights. He makes the bold predictions.
That would be the "Caymans" (Caiman is an alligator looking kind of thing...or maybe crocodile, I'm not sure) and you're really in trouble now. :-)
Quoting 144. FOREX:

Is this one headed for the cemetery?
Another one, that won't survive the desert.....
big cool down coming soon for the northeast!!
Quoting 158. unknowncomic:

NAVGEM really likes the AOI about to exit Africa. Gonna need magic to avoid "shear destruction" though.
Of course, some model or another has liked every wave coming off Africa. So far, model love hasn't done much.
Quoting 128. FOREX:

thought I put you on ignore. let me do that now.
Thank goodness I didn't have to read that until you quoted it.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Of course, some model or another has liked every wave coming off Africa. So far, model love hasn't done much.
I expect next season to make up for the lack of a robust season in the Atlantic side.
Good evening

It's a clear, 86 feeling like 96, here on the island tonight.

For anyone interested, I walked by the left webcam this afternoon and just "knocked" the casing a bit to the left and you can now see the cruise ship that had the engine fire on Monday. Yes, it's still here.

Link

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 69. Astrometeor:



According to superstition, the amount of black on the woolly bear's bristle coating forecasts the severity of the coming winter. Ferree says, "It is the relative proportions of the black and reddish-brown portions of the caterpillar that are supposed to predict the winter." The longer the black segments on the ends of the caterpillar, the harsher the coming winter.

Source


Now that I think about it, I'm not too sure if it's a Woolly Bear or Tiger Moth Caterpillar..
Portlight and Red Cross: Working Together for Accessible Disaster Services
By: Portlight , 10:53 AM CDT on September 08, 2015


Nearly 2 years ago, Portlight signed a Letter of Agreement with the American Red Cross, with the intention of improving disaster services for people with disabilities. Both agreed to work together to make Red Cross shelters more accessible, and to ensure fully inclusive disaster planning.



In the time since our important partnership began, Portlight has advised Red Cross on a number of initiatives, including the development of a Red Cross-branded shelter site survey tool, and their current home fire prevention campaign. Red Cross representatives have been present at every one of our Getting It Right conferences and workshops, and this past July, they attended the annual conference of our mutual partner, the National Council on Independent Living (NCIL). As part of the summer's celebrations of the 25th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act, they joined Portlight and NCIL representatives in a historic march on the Capitol.

Representatives of Portlight Strategies participate in a disability rights march in Washington, DC.The 25th Anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act.



In the coming weeks, as part of National Preparedness Month, and commemorating the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, we'll be rolling out our Inclusion Ambassador Initiative. We're excited about this new endeavor, designed to encourage people with disabilities to volunteer with their local Red Cross chapter, and to organize their communities through emergency preparedness events and exercises.

Inclusion Ambassadors will train to be part of our new Virtual Operations Support Team, which will assist emergency management agencies in times of disaster, providing social media monitoring for identifying emergent situations, and for crowdmapping and crowdsourcing. The VOS Team will be an important component of ensuring the safety and survival of people with disabilities, when disaster strikes.

Stay tuned there's more to come!
September 8, 2015: MODIS true color image of Typhoon Kilo located in the Western North Pacific Ocean.

Larger image



Quoting 135. DeepSeaRising:

NHC awesome again, right on with Grace. Thank goodness some here aren't running the NHC. If they were, this is what we'd read...... "So, while the Philippines are under the gun now, the Caiman Islands need to keep an eye on this one! Shortly after crossing the Philippines, the storm is likely to reverse coarse, traverse the Pacific Eastward, cross over into the Gulf and make a B-line for the Caimans." "All waves coming off of Africa will go South and West, once again putting the Caimans in the line of the imminent hurricane to be; all storms will likely take this path the remainder of the season." Satire of coarse! WKC, while ever serious, manages to keep it light here with his insights. He makes the bold predictions.


... Umm mate first off CaYman not CaIman

This is is the biggest BS I've seen yet on this blog I've been watching and reading everyone from 2007 that that's a good while
Mate try come back at me when you got something to say with sense

Anyway Grace has done quite well
Even though Grace is officially downgraded to a remnant it's still producing decent curvature and convection
Grace will still provide stormy gust conditions for the E Caribbean which is very much needed but not in Dominica

On another note new system to exist Africa tomorrow NHC is watching closely and is up on the TWO
I got a feeling that this one will indeed be a classic CV fish storm IMO

TD 8 soon to be TS Henri will likely become a nice extrop storm for the UK

GOM system that been forecasted I think could become a hurricane Tx look out I think it headed right for you I'm thinking a track similar to Bill



Quoting 159. sar2401:

That would be the "Caymans" (Caiman is an alligator looking kind of thing...or maybe crocodile, I'm not sure) and you're really in trouble now. :-)


Being in trouble should be the last of his worries IMO

Anyway Sar what's up with you
Yeah, grace didn't really stand a chance against all that dry air in the Main Desert Region.
Tomorrow is the peak of the season good thing we have Football!!
Quoting 102. VAstorms:



Don't know if it is el Niño or not but flooding has been a constant in Norfolk and parts of VA Beach since I first moved there in 1988. That was one of the major reasons that I moved from the area. Even a minor hurricane or Nor'easter could easily cause major flooding and often did. Subsidence is an issue but so is sea level rise. The loss of island acreage in the Chesapeake Bay is not from subsidence but sea level rise.
It's also key to remember that the area was not covered by asphalt parking lots and large buildings 100 years ago, and that it's naturally low lying swamp and sandy ground. Seems like a combination of factors.
Quoting 166. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening

It's a clear, 86 feeling like 96, here on the island tonight.

For anyone interested, I walked by the left webcam this afternoon and just "knocked" the casing a bit to the left and you can now see the cruise ship that had the engine fire on Monday. Yes, it's still here.

Link

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
I read about the fire. Carnival says the engine room fire wasn't really that bad, but the fact they are flying the guests home and taking the ship back to Miami with a skeleton crew would say otherwise. This is the second fire in a week down there. Royal Caribbean had an engine room fire in Jamaica that injured at least one crewman. I say at least because that's how many got transferred to a hospital. Others were undoubtedly treated by the ship's medical staff and not reported publicly. These cruise ships are a time bomb waiting to go off. The Carnival Liberty is just a relative baby at 70,000 tons and 4500 crew and passengers. The Royal Caribbean ship, Freedom of the Seas used to be one of the biggest at 154,000 tons, but Royal Caribbean now has two even larger vessels at 225,000 tons. This pair regularly carries a load of 8000 crew and passengers, and has carried over 9000 at peak holiday periods. Just by comparison, our largest aircraft carrier, the Theodore Roosevelt, is a little over 106,000 tons. We had a cruise ship with 550 crew and passengers run aground off the California coast, and it took all the resources on the coast almost six hours to get everyone off, and the vessel wasn't in immediate danger of sinking. There is no way in heaven that a vessel with 8000 souls on board can ever be evacuated on the high seas in the Caribbean without a tremendous loss of life.
Both Schwarz and Brown were regulars during Isabel's coverage, and Carl Parker was an anchor too I believe. Lyons on the desk, no John Hope :( I missed out. Too bad I wasn't born in 1981, then I couldv'e watched it. That and better memory of 90's music and TV which I enjoy today...just not Eddie Vedder or Dr. Frasier
Models look like the same path Edith took in the Gulf in 1971.
Quoting 172. wunderkidcayman:

GOM system that been forecasted I think could become a hurricane Tx look out I think it headed right for you I'm thinking a track similar to Bill





Being in trouble should be the last of his worries IMO

Anyway Sar what's up with you
Went to the osteopath to have my neck manipulated today. He said it would hurt a little . He wasn't kidding. If it works, it will be worth it though.

I don't know about the Gulf storm. The GFS and ECMWF aren't on the same page at all, so calling for a hurricane seems a bit premature. Another issue is that the front that will supposedly be the progenitor of the Gulf low looks like it will have a lot of cold air advection, especially for mid-September. The forecast high here for Sunday is 79 with a low of 56, and the forecast numbers keep coming down. If the cold air is really able to work its way this far south, that's usually not good conditions for any kind of tropical cyclone. The shear in the western Gulf is still high, and the front won't help that at all. I can see a low forming off Mexico in the BOC and turning inland, still over Mexico. Going further north is going to be pretty tough.
Well tomorrow's high will be in the low 90's, but starting Sunday ILM isn't supposed to get any higher than 85 through next Friday, with 80 being the high that day. Good way to start the (what I think will be a pretty lousy for me) NFL season.

Quoting 164. sar2401:

Thank goodness I didn't have to read that until you quoted it.


I accidentally hit the plus button on it, got flag mixed with ignore and tried to correct for it and lagged instead. Whoops.
Quoting 165. unknowncomic:

I expect next season to make up for the lack of a robust season in the Atlantic side.
We'll see. A super El Nino is certainly not guaranteed to evaporate by next season. 1982-83 were both well below normal hurricane seasons. 1997 was also a well below normal season while 1998 was an above average season. Take your pick, but it really depends on how quickly this El Nino winds down.
Quoting 180. win1gamegiantsplease:

Well tomorrow's high will be in the low 90's, but starting Sunday ILM isn't supposed to get any higher than 85 through next Friday, with 80 being the high that day. Good way to start the (what I think will be a pretty lousy for me) NFL season.



I accidentally hit the plus button on it, got flag mixed with ignore and tried to correct for it and lagged instead. Whoops.
You are a positive menace when it comes to that mouse. Now I'll probably be banned for a week. :-0
Quoting 157. Starhopper:


Is it even raining there? ; )

Catch yah later all. Good info.


Radar out of Sahn Diahgo [Link]. Heavy rain falling in northern LA county (think that's right, I know Orange is the tiny one east of it and SB is north of that. I'm not a west coaster by any means).
Quoting 182. sar2401:

You are a positive menace when it comes to that mouse. Now I'll probably be banned for a week. :-0


I'll just start plussing all comments. Hooray, everyone's a winner.

That last sentence is for Grothar, he made a funny last night.
Quoting 151. DavidHOUTX:

So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.
What I have noticed is the lack of hummingbirds this year. Maybe they all died of heatstroke or something, but I've got a couple of feeders and a bunch of blooming plants that have been successful in attracting them in past years. I'd guess I've seen maybe 20% of the normal number this year. I have no idea what that means in terms of weather. Maybe nothing, but I thought it was kind of weird.
Quoting 179. sar2401:

Went to the osteopath to have my neck manipulated today. He said it would hurt a little . He wasn't kidding. If it works, it will be worth it though.

I don't know about the Gulf storm. The GFS and ECMWF aren't on the same page at all, so calling for a hurricane seems a bit premature. Another issue is that the front that will supposedly be the progenitor of the Gulf low looks like it will have a lot of cold air advection, especially for mid-September. The forecast high here for Sunday is 79 with a low of 56, and the forecast numbers keep coming down. If the cold air is really able to work its way this far south, that's usually not good conditions for any kind of tropical cyclone. The shear in the western Gulf is still high, and the front won't help that at all. I can see a low forming off Mexico in the BOC and turning inland, still over Mexico. Going further north is going to be pretty tough.


Did you get a few neck cracks

Hmm lol GFS and Euro being on the same page seem to be a uncommon thing these past years more so this year so no surprise

Huh maybe calling hurricane is a bit premature but we will find out later wouldn't we

Anyway I'm already starting to ready up for winter 15/16 can't wait early estimates say Cold and Wet down S I hope it's more freezing and icy

Hey, Keeper, did you feel a bump about 2 hours ago? Looks like there was a 3.7 quake just NE of Toronto this afternoon/evening, probably about 10 to 8 your time (Eastern Daylight?).
Quoting 185. sar2401:

What I have noticed is the lack of hummingbirds this year. Maybe they all died of heatstroke or something, but I've got a couple of feeders and a bunch of blooming plants that have been successful in attracting them in past years. I'd guess I've seen maybe 20% of the normal number this year. I have no idea what that means in terms of weather. Maybe nothing, but I thought it was kind of weird.


That is unfortunate. I was just reading the other day how humming birds tend to have nest near hawks. As if the hawks protect them in some sort of way. It is pretty neat how that happens. Here is the link

Link

I am a huge nature fan in any way. I love just watching squirrels wonder around and bury pecans from my tree in my yard. I have lots of blue jays, cardinals, crows, tons of dove and other birds around my area. I find myself sitting in my back yard just starring at them. They tend to know more than humans when an event is about to take place.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Of course, some model or another has liked every wave coming off Africa. So far, model love hasn't done much.
Is model love like muskrat love?
he he

I do believe we would have had the nail-dead season some were predicting if the AEWs this season had not been so robust. In a season with more favorable conditions we would have been looking at some serious cat 4-5 cyclones between mid-August and the end of Sept. Lucky we have the Shear Shower-Stripping Curtain of Death out there around 40W .... Ace may stay low [I expect it will] but I have a feeling we're going to get to the average # of named storms this season.
Quoting 179. sar2401:

Went to the osteopath to have my neck manipulated today. He said it would hurt a little . He wasn't kidding. If it works, it will be worth it though.

I don't know about the Gulf storm. The GFS and ECMWF aren't on the same page at all, so calling for a hurricane seems a bit premature. Another issue is that the front that will supposedly be the progenitor of the Gulf low looks like it will have a lot of cold air advection, especially for mid-September. The forecast high here for Sunday is 79 with a low of 56, and the forecast numbers keep coming down. If the cold air is really able to work its way this far south, that's usually not good conditions for any kind of tropical cyclone. The shear in the western Gulf is still high, and the front won't help that at all. I can see a low forming off Mexico in the BOC and turning inland, still over Mexico. Going further north is going to be pretty tough.
Cool air will be gone by Tuesday low back into the 70 +.
Quoting 185. sar2401:

What I have noticed is the lack of hummingbirds this year. Maybe they all died of heatstroke or something, but I've got a couple of feeders and a bunch of blooming plants that have been successful in attracting them in past years. I'd guess I've seen maybe 20% of the normal number this year. I have no idea what that means in terms of weather. Maybe nothing, but I thought it was kind of weird.


I didn't realize Centex went without June bugs this year til I went to see Grandma in Conroe who had some. Apparently our six weeks of rain in May and June drowned all the pupae/larvae. Cicada populations were good, and I'm working on a theory re: them and Oak Wilt (root) disease. Saw more or less the 'right' number of Hummingbirds in moist spots, but Mockingbirds and Bluejays are AWOL. Juvenile bullfrogs have been coming in the house due to the 3mo infernal drought: they left yesterday and it finally rained good an hour ago, with likely more on the way. Opened up casa to let moisture in the mummified interior.
Looks like we've got Henri.

Quoting 191. redwagon:



I didn't realize Centex went without June bugs this year til I went to see Grandma in Conroe who had some. Apparently our six weeks of rain in May and June drowned all the pupae/larvae. Cicada populations were good, and I'm working on a theory re: them and Oak Wilt (root) disease. Saw more or less the 'right' number of Hummingbirds in moist spots, but Mockingbirds and Bluejays are AWOL. Juvenile bullfrogs have been coming in the house due to the 3mo infernal drought: they left yesterday and it finally rained good an hour ago, with likely more on the way. Opened up casa to let moisture in the mummified interior.


In the Woodlands now that you mention it we didn't have any here either...
Quoting 153. beell:



With respect to Norfolk, Va and its prominence in the post, it would not have hurt to at least give passing mention to studies that attribute approximately half of the relative sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay the Norfolk area to land subsidence.

Land Subsidence and Relative
Sea-Level Rise in the Southern
Chesapeake Bay Region/usgs.gov-2013



I have no doubt t hat subsidence has a major effect but sea level rise is also occurring. I feel they are very akin subjects as subsidence occurs because of human activity as well. And it isn't just the lower Chesapeake Bay area that is feeling these effects.
maybe Henri at 11pm
TXNT28 KNES 100001
TCSNTL

A. 08L (NONAME)

B. 09/2345Z

C. 31.1N

D. 60.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINE CLOUD LINES
AND AN EXPOSED LLCC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A COLD OVERCAST
WIDER THAN 1.5 DEGREES. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 60.4W AT
09/2100 UTC OR 250 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING E-SE AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. T.D. EIGHT IS
EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SW THUS THE
CONVECTION IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 29N55W TO 33N60W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
20N26W ALONG 15N28W TO 20N28W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 61W FROM 15N TO OVER
SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF THE WAVE TO 64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 74W/75W
FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATED THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.
Quoting 175. BahaHurican:

It's also key to remember that the area was not covered by asphalt parking lots and large buildings 100 years ago, and that it's naturally low lying swamp and sandy ground. Seems like a combination of factors.


My biggest gripe is the idea that this is just nuisance flooding. I know of 3 businesses that disappeared because of flooding. the majority of homes in Ghent near the basin have had significant water damage as have homes along the Elizabeth River. At current water incursion rates with increases expected without major storms, much of that area will be unlivable. The area includes 2 major hospitals both of which have had water incursions into sub-basement areas of them and may see first floor incursions within the foreseeable future. This is hardly nuisance.
Quoting 192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like we've got Henri.



Time for Henri the 8th I am jokes and Ghost movie references :) Or Huit, I guess


tropical storm winds will be in the ocean!
Quoting 199. redwagon:


Time for Henri the 8th I am jokes and Ghost movie references :) Or Huit, I guess




Patrick Swayze driving Whoopi Goldberg 'round the bend.


i see snow on here in blue means much cooler weather for the northeast!!
203. OCF
The extreme west edge of the thunderstorm that went into Orange County reached Long Beach: officially (at LGB), .02 inch of rain. And I don't think the sun ever stopped shining. Sidewalks got wet, but as hot as those sidewalks were, it evaporated off very quickly. High for the day was 103. The bit of rain dropped it to about 90, but it's back up in the mid-90's at sunset, with dew points in the mid 60s. Sets up another unpleasant night - last night's low temp was something like 77 or 78, which is pretty much unheard of here - it "always" cools off at night. Except this year.

I guess there are some models somewhere that bring the central moisture of Linda this far north, but the NWS Los Angeles guys don't believe them - they say it's going off to the east.
Quoting 191. redwagon:



I didn't realize Centex went without June bugs this year til I went to see Grandma in Conroe who had some. Apparently our six weeks of rain in May and June drowned all the pupae/larvae. Cicada populations were good, and I'm working on a theory re: them and Oak Wilt (root) disease. Saw more or less the 'right' number of Hummingbirds in moist spots, but Mockingbirds and Bluejays are AWOL. Juvenile bullfrogs have been coming in the house due to the 3mo infernal drought: they left yesterday and it finally rained good an hour ago, with likely more on the way. Opened up casa to let moisture in the mummified interior.
My nightingales have been AWOL this year as well, now that you mention birds. The South is the only place I know where you usually hear them carrying on all night long, but not this year. What I've had is been an explosion of palmetto bugs though. I think that's really a nicer name for giant cockroaches, but the things are on all my porches every time I go outside. I've even had a few in the house, which is rare. I suspect the dry weather has made them want to come up to where the container plants have water, and they wander in when the door is opened. For some reason, they seem to die almost immediately indoors. Then the darn cats find them and start playing with their bodies, my fiance starts screaming, and I have to scoop up the carcass and dispose of it. This is just the wrong place to live if you don't like bugs.
Quoting 203. OCF:

The extreme west edge of the thunderstorm that went into Orange County reached Long Beach: officially (at LGB), .02 inch of rain. And I don't think the sun ever stopped shining. Sidewalks got wet, but as hot as those sidewalks were, it evaporated off very quickly. High for the day was 103. The bit of rain dropped it to about 90, but it's back up in the mid-90's at sunset, with dew points in the mid 60s. Sets up another unpleasant night - last night's low temp was something like 77 or 78, which is pretty much unheard of here - it "always" cools off at night. Except this year.

I guess there are some models somewhere that bring the central moisture of Linda this far north, but the NWS Los Angeles guys don't believe them - they say it's going off to the east.
I believe most of it is going east as well. What you'll have will be just enough tropical air to make life miserable. That happened a few times when I lived in LA and it was really terrible. Even though I had A/C, I could always turn it off at night and open the windows, except when the monsoon was in. Then I end up in Alabama, where the A/C hasn't been off since the end of May. I'm hoping maybe this weekend I may have a chance to sleep with the windows open.
206. SLU
8-2-1

Quoting 190. gulfbreeze:

Cool air will be gone by Tuesday low back into the 70 +.
Assuming the Euro doesn't move this low back again, it was supposed to be in the Gulf by Monday. Even with a warm up we'll still have unusually dry air. Not what a tropical cyclone likes to see.
Sept. 10 is peak day in hurricane season — so where are the storms?

Link
I usually see my peak in numbers around this time of year in advance of the first real cold fronts. They hit my feeders hard as they migrate south. I have a few that stick around all summer, but overall the last 2 years the numbers have been down. I do have one that hangs out on our enclosed porch and allows us to touch her. She tries to get in the house but she would be kitty food. Don't know the weather significance of their presence (or lack thereof).

Quoting 185. sar2401:

What I have noticed is the lack of hummingbirds this year. Maybe they all died of heatstroke or something, but I've got a couple of feeders and a bunch of blooming plants that have been successful in attracting them in past years. I'd guess I've seen maybe 20% of the normal number this year. I have no idea what that means in terms of weather. Maybe nothing, but I thought it was kind of weird.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Tropical Storm HENRI
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 2015
Location: 31.3°N 60.7°W
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 204. sar2401: Bugs

Spray with Suspend SC and *everything* dies. Fascinating reason why, check it out on Amazon.
Quoting 186. wunderkidcayman:



Did you get a few neck cracks

Hmm lol GFS and Euro being on the same page seem to be a uncommon thing these past years more so this year so no surprise

Huh maybe calling hurricane is a bit premature but we will find out later wouldn't we

Anyway I'm already starting to ready up for winter 15/16 can't wait early estimates say Cold and Wet down S I hope it's more freezing and icy


No neck cracking. An osteopath doesn't do that kind of thing. He just does this gentle manipulation that doesn't hurt until about three hours after he's done. I first worked in an osteopathic hospital, and I've always liked the way they treated patients. I hope this will work. The collapsed vertebrae are now starting cause numbness in my fingers.

The models are really off on this one, with the ECMWF calling for a strong storm, but it keep moving it back in time with each run. The GFS never even develops a low, let alone a storm. The CMC never develops any kind of low for the time frame but then develops two lows in the Gulf at 178 hours. It's going to be a couple of days before this all gets sorted out.
WTNT33 KNHC 100243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 60.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed Thursday
and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center will pass
well east of Bermuda early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
Quoting 210. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
I've learned you'll always get it first, so now I just wait to see what you post. :-). Henri had better be it or my chance at hurricane prediction fame is going to be over.
8-2-1, 15 days ahead of climatology during a strong El Nino

Not bad, I can see us having 2 more within the next week to 10 days


big ??
Quoting 208. unknowncomic:

Sept. 10 is peak day in hurricane season — so where are the storms?

Link
Henri just got named so we still have a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic on September 10. The number of storms this year has been surprisingly high while the ACE has been surprisingly low. I guess it depends on how you define an active season. I happen to believe ACE is a better parameter to use and, by that measure, this has been a pretty poor season.
Quoting 151. DavidHOUTX:

So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.


Oh, you have a crazy ant infestation. They do not have a clue about what they are doing, but they are very persistent about doing it. :)
Quoting 153. beell:



With respect to Norfolk, Va and its prominence in the post, it would not have hurt to at least give passing mention to studies that attribute approximately half of the relative sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay the Norfolk area to land subsidence.

Land Subsidence and Relative
Sea-Level Rise in the Southern
Chesapeake Bay Region/usgs.gov-2013




That is likely very true, but sea level rise will more than double their subsidence problems.
Quoting 216. Hurricanes101:

8-2-1, 15 days ahead of climatology during a strong El Nino

Not bad, I can see us having 2 more within the next week to 10 days
Look, 8-2-1 was my exact prediction for the season. Any more storms and my chance to appear on The WU Show with my Wunderfriend Sharpy, the psychotic serial killer, goes right down the drain. So let's ixnay on the more storms thing.
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Henri just got named so we still have a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic on September 10. The number of storms this year has been surprisingly high while the ACE has been surprisingly low. I guess it depends on how you define an active season. I happen to believe ACE is a better parameter to use and, by that measure, this has been a pretty poor season.
We should be thankful for the shear, because the destruction this year could have been much worse. Unfortunately, Dominica bore the brunt so far this.
Tropical Rainstorm ex-Grace will bring an increase in showers to the northeastern Caribbean Thursday night into Saturday. While parts of the region will have beneficial rain, it will not be a drought-buster.
A batch of showers and localized downpours is set to arrive into the Leeward Islands Thursday night and continue through Friday. Antigua, Barbuda, Guadeloupe and Dominica will be among the first island nations receiving the rain.
In most cases, the rain will be beneficial, but it will not make up for the significant rainfall deficits in the region.
"This will not be a drought buster for the northeast Caribbean," said Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller. "While some places will receive some much needed rain, there are going to be parts of the region that miss out completely."
Persistent dry, dusty air and lack of rainfall during the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season deepened a historic drought across the northeast Caribbean.
"There have been huge deficits in the rainfall during this wet season [which runs June-November] across the northeast Caribbean," said Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
From June 1 through Sept. 8, St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands recorded only 32 percent of normal rainfall. St. Croix, also located in the Virgin Islands, recorded only 46 percent of normal. Farther west, San Juan, Puerto Rico, recorded just 60 percent of normal rainfall.
Henri's Current Stats
Status Tropical Storm
Position 31.3° N, -60.7° W
Winds 40 mph
Gusts 50 mph
Movement N 5 mph
Pressure 29.77 in / 1008 mb
In the spirit of Dr. Master's post, I give you US Highway 80, the only road between Savannah and Tybee Island. Just a couple of minutes from my house, it floods almost every time there is an astronomical high "spring" tide. The frequency of these occurrences has only increased in recent years, I'm sure not only because of sea level rise, but also because of subsidence due to increased development of coastal barrier islands. The other factor that has increased nuisance flooding in the area is the building of sea walls along coastal creeks. The hard barriers and steep inclines created by them increase the flow rate of the incoming tide so that the water pushes toward properties that are unprotected, such as my back yard that fronts the marsh.





Grace dissipated late Wednesday morning when it was centered over 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. What is left of Grace will bring a few showers to the Lesser Antilles later this week. Strong vertical wind shear and dry air proved to be the demise of Grace.
Tropical Storm HENRI is located about 220 miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda. Late Wednesday afternoon, visible satellite imagery showed that the circulation center was just west of deep convection. However, the convection is strong. And, with weak shear, the convection should be able to wrap around the center. Therefore, strengthening is forecast in the next couple of days, and it should become Tropical Storm Henri. Though stationary now, it should begin a northward motion tonight. It will accelerate north and northeast later this week. It should stay away from land. However, it is not out of the question it affects parts of Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland late Friday or early Saturday.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, there is a potent tropical wave just west of Cape Verde Islands. This wave will have to battle a hostile environment over the next few days. Therefore, it is not expected to develop.
Did anywhere in Dr. Masters blog did it mention that Norfolk and the surroundng region have been sinking? If not then that is an intentional act of leaving out important information and blaming nuisance flooding in Norfolk solely on supposed global warming sea level rise. And to believe that nuisance flooding is solely a result of sea level rise due to global warming in a decade or so is pure fantasy. I live in Florida and the beaches around New Smyrna Beach have actually built up sand and there is more of it between homes and the sea


i see a few spins here


55-years ago tonight Cat-4 Hurricane Donna was baring down on the middle florida Keys with 140-MPH winds.
Quoting 228. sanflee76:

Did anywhere in Dr. Masters blog did it mention that Norfolk and the surroundng region have been sinking? If not then that is an intentional act of leaving out important information and blaming nuisance flooding in Norfolk solely on supposed global warming sea level rise. And to believe that nuisance flooding is solely a result of sea level rise due to global warming in a decade or so is pure fantasy. I live in Florida and the beaches around New Smyrna Beach have actually built up sand and there is more of it between homes and the sea


You are correct, much of the Chesapeake Bay/Virginia tidewater area IS sinking. Which makes sea level rise even more of an urgent matter than it would be if the land was only sinking...
Quoting 144. FOREX:

Is this one headed for the cemetery?
This seems to call for lower than average shear in portions of the ATL for October.
While the eastern US TROF will continue to deepen through the weekend, it will gradually advance towards the east as the overall hemispheric flow pattern is, and will likely remain, quite progressive. This will cause the eastern TROF to de-amplify as it moves out over the Atlantic and will be followed by a more zonal-like flow next week. Further upstream, the next short-wave now moving towards Alaska will then move southeastward into the PAC NW and eventually the central US in about 8-10 days – amplifying into another high amplitude TROF in the central/eastern US during Week 2. At the same time, remnant moisture from what is now Hurricane LINDA southwest of Baja, CA will likely move towards Texas and could lead to locally heavy rainfall late next week – especially if it gets absorbed by - and interacts with - the next amplifying TROF.

While there continue to be significant day-to-day differences in model forecasts – overall – the model projections are far more consistent now than they’ve been in quite some time. With this in mind, it’s worth noting that the global models (both the GFS and ECMWF) and their ensembles remain in generally very good agreement that a western US TROF is likely to develop towards the end of the month. If this occurs, a relatively warm end to the month is likely across the eastern US.

cool down for the northeast then big warm up by the end of september!!
Well 8-names storms already. The yearly average is 11-named storms if I am correct. At this rate I truly think we might see a total of say 12 or 13 for the year. Not bad for a Super El Nino year.
Quoting 224. hurricanes2018:

Tropical Rainstorm ex-Grace will bring an increase in showers to the northeastern Caribbean Thursday night into Saturday. While parts of the region will have beneficial rain, it will not be a drought-buster.
A batch of showers and localized downpours is set to arrive into the Leeward Islands Thursday night and continue through Friday. Antigua, Barbuda, Guadeloupe and Dominica will be among the first island nations receiving the rain.
In most cases, the rain will be beneficial, but it will not make up for the significant rainfall deficits in the region.
"This will not be a drought buster for the northeast Caribbean," said Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller. "While some places will receive some much needed rain, there are going to be parts of the region that miss out completely."
Persistent dry, dusty air and lack of rainfall during the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season deepened a historic drought across the northeast Caribbean.
"There have been huge deficits in the rainfall during this wet season [which runs June-November] across the northeast Caribbean," said Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
From June 1 through Sept. 8, St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands recorded only 32 percent of normal rainfall. St. Croix, also located in the Virgin Islands, recorded only 46 percent of normal. Farther west, San Juan, Puerto Rico, recorded just 60 percent of normal rainfall.


Yes, this drought is historic.

Since january 1st 2015, the METEO FRANCE weather station recorded 209.2 mm (8.36") of rain. This is what Dominica recorded in less than 12 hours during Erika.

The Jun-July-Aug period only received 61mm/2.44" or about 25% of the average rainfall.

I HATE EL NINO. And just hope the rain will come back someday.
Quoting 236. HurriHistory:

Well 8-names storms already. The yearly average is 11-named storms if I am correct. At this rate I truly think we might see a total of say 12 or 13 for the year. Not bad for a Super El Nino year.


ACE looks much lower than average though
Quoting 227. hurricanes2018:

Grace dissipated late Wednesday morning when it was centered over 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. What is left of Grace will bring a few showers to the Lesser Antilles later this week. Strong vertical wind shear and dry air proved to be the demise of Grace.
Tropical Storm HENRI is located about 220 miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda. Late Wednesday afternoon, visible satellite imagery showed that the circulation center was just west of deep convection. However, the convection is strong. And, with weak shear, the convection should be able to wrap around the center. Therefore, strengthening is forecast in the next couple of days, and it should become Tropical Storm Henri. Though stationary now, it should begin a northward motion tonight. It will accelerate north and northeast later this week. It should stay away from land. However, it is not out of the question it affects parts of Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland late Friday or early Saturday.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic, there is a potent tropical wave just west of Cape Verde Islands. This wave will have to battle a hostile environment over the next few days. Therefore, it is not expected to develop.

Actually it'll probably develop to a TD or weak TS, like the previews systems...nothing new for the 2015, Tropical atlantic....
Quoting 218. sar2401:

Henri just got named so we still have a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic on September 10. The number of storms this year has been surprisingly high while the ACE has been surprisingly low. I guess it depends on how you define an active season. I happen to believe ACE is a better parameter to use and, by that measure, this has been a pretty poor season.
In summary Quantity vs quality.


Hurricane Cleo August 26, 1964. 38 miles ESE of Miami
Todaywas my first day at UNAH and it was awesome. I miss my family and friends but its awesome to finally be at faculty and meet new and awesome people. Tegucigalpa is so big and totally different of my native Ceiba. The weather is cool too. Most of the day you feel cool air instead of that hot weather I was accustom.
Quoting 153. beell:
With respect to Norfolk, Va and its prominence in the post, it would not have hurt to at least give passing mention to studies that attribute approximately half of the relative sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay the Norfolk area to land subsidence.
From the paper "Gulf Stream's induced sea level rise and variability along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast" cited in the blog post.

The high rate of relative SLR in the CB (2–3 times faster than the global mean SLR) has been attributed in the past to local land subsidence [Boon et al., 2010]. However, subsidence due to long-term post glacial rebound [Tamisiea and Mitrovica, 2011] is a slow process that cannot explain fast changes of SLR rates in recent years.
where "CB" references the "Hampton Roads area in the Chesapeake Bay " which in turn includes Norfolk (per Wikipedia).
245. beell
Quoting 220. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



That is likely very true, but sea level rise will more than double their subsidence problems.


Throw that sentence up in Doc's post, Rook-and I am a happy camper.
:)
Quoting 151. DavidHOUTX:

So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.


Around here the ants are always going crazy, so it wouldn't come of any surprise to me. Seems to me your ant's may have just found some larger prey and are having a feast day. Being a keeper of ants as pets, I'm quite fond of them, and know my share about colony behavior, which varies a lot from species to species.

Ants may not be able to tell if a hurricane is coming, but it's been my experience that carpenter ants and fire ants consistently do their evening winged ant mating swarms just as a major rainy pattern begins. They seem to know the difference between consistent heavy rains and just occasional heavy rain, at least to some degree. How, I'm not sure, but it's generally been the case.
247. LBAR
Quoting 151. DavidHOUTX:

So I took my dogs out today and noticed the ants going crazy all over the place. An old wise man told me that's a sign of things to come. Time will tell if anything happens.


Wooly worms are crawling in my part of South Carolina...the Midlands. It's a bit early from my experience. Not sure what it means, but older folks say a cold, wet Winter...?
Quoting 241. allancalderini:

In summary Quantity vs quality.


About the quality you'd expect from a big time El Niño year though.

Still better than 2013 in terms of storm quality, at least we had a surprise in Danny this year.

And uhh... this hurricane season is only halfway through.
Quoting 247. LBAR:



Wooly worms are crawling in my part of South Carolina...the Midlands. It's a bit early from my experience. Not sure what it means, but older folks say a cold, wet Winter...?


Would make sense, an active subtropical jetstream would give more rain to the SE.

Although, if you read Dr. Rood's blog entry on El Ninos, there's not enough empirical data to tell for sure what will happen this winter. Link to Rood
Quoting 220. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



That is likely very true, but sea level rise will more than double their subsidence problems.


I heard you were Tubby
.........................
253. vis0

Quoting 26. RitaEvac:



John Hope, Vivian Brown, Jim Cantore, Stu Ostro, Mike Seidel, Bill Keneely, Cheryl Lemke, Kristina Abernathy, Rich Johnson, Terri Smith, who else we missing
For more try "twcclassics" *** (most here i think know of that site, but just in case your a newbie) or "wxretro" (my site, search wxretro's  playlists, hope to place back some 9 LIVE remotes i was asked to UN-LIST due to TWCh special that aired those segments.)


*** (have a few VIDs there, but not as many as i'd like. Always had log on trouble there so not as many VIDs as i'd like to had posted. Years ago  when i posted TWC music via youtube (youtube didn't have over 400 sites then) the youtube site was removed, had over TWCh 130 tunes, it received copyright complained even though i'd link teach tune to the copyright holder and "fluctuated" the music so one could not steal a clear copy but still get the taste of the tune (fluctuation caused the tune to sound as if it was being played underwater)...weird 6 yrs later youtube is paying a company to develop such a fluctuation ...duh?)


WxQ, How many more Tropical Storms in 2015 (so far) do you think will be added to the final tally. In other words TS that were not called but with further research (after Dec) a change the views of NHC officials enough to call those "close to TS", actual TS? i say 3 SO FAR.

Quoting 251. Grothar:




I would be happy if it could RI just like Gonzalo did last year east of the Leewards xD
Henri. Ahn REE
Henri decoupled

259. FOREX
00GFS through 210 hours a no go for GOM system
Quoting 259. FOREX:

00GFS through 192 hours a no go for GOM system
It's there a weak 1008 mb. low just offshore the Mexico coast. The moisture ends up getting drawn northward into Texas and Louisiana as the front lifts back towards the north. It keeps it close enough to the coastline for it not to develop much.

261. FOREX
Quoting 260. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It's there a weak 1008 mb. low just offshore the Mexico coast. The moisture ends up getting drawn northward into Texas and Louisiana as the front lifts back towards the north. It keeps it close enough to the coastline for it not to develop much.


Right, I saw that. Was just comparing it to the Euro and that's why I considered it to be "nothing." lol
263. SLU
Ex-Grace still has a closed circulation

12:50 am SW ( 221 deg ) 2.1 kts
12:40 am WNW ( 294 deg ) 3.3 kts
12:30 am WNW ( 303 deg ) 3.7 kts
12:20 am WNW ( 302 deg ) 4.9 kts
12:10 am NW ( 317 deg ) 4.9 kts
12:00 am NW ( 312 deg ) 5.8 kts
Quoting 245. beell:
Throw that sentence up in Doc'said post, Rook-and I am a happy camper.
No need for any change. The subject of the blog is the effects of el Nino, not the effects of sea level rise. The reason for the sea level rise is really beside the point of the blog post. This quote from the blog sums up the issue.
“We know that nuisance flooding is happening more often because of rising sea levels, but it is important to recognize that weather and ocean patterns brought on by El Niño can compound this trend,” said co-author of the report, William Sweet
Nothing really needs to be added to the blog post--though the causes of sea level rise comprise an interesting topic.

So my previous post was a bit off-topic as well.
Quoting 262. 19N81W:

For those in the states.....without rain we are in serious trouble and will have to revert to desal
It's not raining and at one point it looked it would be ok but seems the drought has deepened
While everyone says we don't want terms we have become used to full cisterns and healthy lenses over the last 15 years
As we enter a new more arid climate the impacts on our region could be severe.
We can't reroute rivers or truck in water.
So much for busier seasons...it's been getting quieter since the insanity of 2005




2010-2012 were pretty busy. 2013-2014 were quiet.

This season is only quiet due to the El Ninio. Without it we could have been looking at a very active season.

The recent quiet seasons are not a result of climate change. Hurricane seasons are known to be very active for a few years and then not so active for a few more.

Besides. This season is pretty active for an El Ninio year...
Just did my 83rd blog update of the season. The most interesting things over the coming days include potential for development in the western Gulf of Mexico, and the tropical wave about to emerge from Africa which could actually intensify across the central Atlantic unlike Grace. More details in the update.



One of the strongest yet
268. FOREX
EURO running. Let's see if it shows anything since the GFS didn't' for the GOM.
269. FOREX
Quoting 268. FOREX:

EURO running. Let's see if it shows anything since the GFS didn't' for the GOM.
Quoting 228. sanflee76:

Did anywhere in Dr. Masters blog did it mention that Norfolk and the surroundng region have been sinking? If not then that is an intentional act of leaving out important information and blaming nuisance flooding in Norfolk solely on supposed global warming sea level rise. And to believe that nuisance flooding is solely a result of sea level rise due to global warming in a decade or so is pure fantasy. I live in Florida and the beaches around New Smyrna Beach have actually built up sand and there is more of it between homes and the sea
Of course, nowhere did Dr. Masters blame the nuisance flooding "solely" on climate change; a simple reading shows that. Neither did he state that subsidence has nothing to do with nuisance flooding. He simply stated the scientifically-supported fact that the planet's oceans are higher than they've been, and that higher base sea level means more flooding in the face of a strong El Nio.

Pretty difficult to disagree with that, don't you think?
271. MahFL
Quoting 208. unknowncomic:

Sept. 10 is peak day in hurricane season — so where are the storms?


We have one in the Atlantic, you are aware it's an El Nino year, correct ?
272. MahFL
Quoting 237. CaribBoy:



I HATE EL NINO. And just hope the rain will come back someday.


The rain will come back, it always has.


Here comes the front.
weather playing havoc in Virginia but [Earlier this evening, a severe thunderstorm with high winds passed over Lockn' and caused damage to the festival grounds, particularly the parking and campground area. The good news is that no one was injured and the entire team is focused on cleaning up and preparing for a great festival. The unfortunate news is that we will be forced to delay the opening of the campgrounds and cancel Thursday%u2019s performances in order to give the team the time necessary to make sure the festival grounds are safe for both our guests and our artists.} widespread panic is not playing this yr so the show will go on
dont forget much of norfolk was built on a landfill. its sinking
From BBC:

Japan floods: City of Joso hit by 'unprecedented' rain

Widespread flooding and landslides in north-east Japan have forced more than 90,000 people to abandon their homes.

The city of Joso, north of the capital, Tokyo, was hit by a wall of water after the Kinugawa River burst its banks. Helicopter rescue teams have been plucking people from rooftops.

One person has been reported missing in the region and at least 12 are injured.

The rains come a day after a tropical storm brought winds of up to 125km/h (78mph) to central Aichi prefecture.

"These heavy rains are unprecedented. We can say this is an abnormal situation and there is imminent serious danger," the chief forecaster at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Takuya Deshimaru, said on Thursday.

[...]

In Tochigi, more than 500mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in places, according to local public broadcaster NHK, which said that was about double what normally falls there throughout the whole of September.

[...]

Complete article >>

For this particular year the peak for the Atlantic inactivity has been reached
279. MahFL
Quoting 278. juracanpr1:

For this particular year the peak for the Atlantic inactivity has been reached


Actually on the 10th we normally have 1 named storm on that date, and we do today, so it's normal in that regard.
is that leftover fred or is it another system? 35w 30n
Isn't the land sinking in the Hamption, VA area which has caused higher high tides?
OK, model fans, here are the big three for 00z Wednesday -

GFS



ECMWF (Euro)



CMC (GEM)



As you can see, all three models are not showing much in the Gulf. All three do develop a low near the Gulf and then lose it in the next period, develop it again, and then lose it. The GFS loses the 1010 mb low on the next frames. The CMC, of course, is back to the twin lows in the gulf, and one of them looks like it's aimed right at Alabama! But seriously, while we keep scanning the Gulf for signs of a storm, check out the Midwest and Canada for a real whopper. The ECMWF and GFS are developing a massive front that's more typical of late October than mid-September. The GFS does indeed develop hurricane winds, but they are in Minnesota, not Texas. Batten down the hatches up there, the going could get rough.
Good Morning all..

NWS, Wilmington, NC

SATURDAY`S
STARTING TO LOOK PRETTY INTERESTING. SECONDARY, MUCH STRONGER
FRONT IMPINGING UPON THE AREA THOUGH DECELERATING. MID LEVEL MEGA-
TROUGH NOW NOT SO POSITIVELY TILTED AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW MORE
NEUTRAL...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 125KT UPPER JET POSITIONED
FAVORABLY FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT. TWO BIG FACTORS PREVENTING
SATURDAY FROM BEING A PRETTY CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE VERY CLOUDY AND GOOD, DEEP INSTABILITY MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY AND THE FACT THAT THE STRONGEST ASCENT LIKELY
COMES SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE TILT OF THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
CHANGE TO MORE DIFFLUENT/NEGATIVE TILT THEN THE FORCING MAY COME A
BIT EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE THOUGH CLOUD COVER STILL A BIT OF
AN INHIBITING FACTOR. QUICK COORD WITH SPC AND THEY HAVE SIMILAR
CONCERNS AND WILL BE OUTLINING THE AREA IN SWODY3 SO WILL GO AHEAD
AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCE WORDING (GUSTY, NOT JUST SEVERE YET) AND
MENTION IN THE HWO.
Quoting 277. Xandra:

From BBC:

Japan floods: City of Joso hit by 'unprecedented' rain

Widespread flooding and landslides in north-east Japan have forced more than 90,000 people to abandon their homes.

The city of Joso, north of the capital, Tokyo, was hit by a wall of water after the Kinugawa River burst its banks. Helicopter rescue teams have been plucking people from rooftops.

One person has been reported missing in the region and at least 12 are injured.

The rains come a day after a tropical storm brought winds of up to 125km/h (78mph) to central Aichi prefecture.

"These heavy rains are unprecedented. We can say this is an abnormal situation and there is imminent serious danger," the chief forecaster at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Takuya Deshimaru, said on Thursday.

[...]

In Tochigi, more than 500mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours in places, according to local public broadcaster NHK, which said that was about double what normally falls there throughout the whole of September.

[...]

Complete article >>


Nice long line work in the last scene. There must have been several levee breaches on the river to cause that kind of water flow. The loss of life seems amazingly low so I hope that continues. As usual with these kinds of floods, the property loss and disruption of people's lives are the real casualties. Just another example of how the true danger from a tropical storm is its rain and not necessarily the wind.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henri, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
later today. Some slow development of this wave is possible during
the next several days while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015

There has been little change in the cloud pattern of Henri since
the previous advisory. The tropical storm remains sheared with the
low-level center displaced to the west of the main area of deep
convection. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which could
be conservative based on the earlier scatterometer data. This
intensity estimate is on the high side of the latest Dvorak
analyses.

Henri is currently being affected by 15-20 kt of west-southwesterly
wind shear and dry air has wrapped around the west and south sides
of the circulation. The shear is expected to lessen later today,
and that could allow Henri to gain some strength. However,
significant intensification is not expected as the cyclone should
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours, where a
sharp gradient in sea surface temperatures exist. Henri is forecast
to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days, when it is
expected to be over cold water. Most of the guidance shows the
extratropical low dissipating by day 5, and the NHC forecast
follows suit.

The tropical storm has been moving erratically during the last
several hours, but the general motion has been slowly northward. A
faster northward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue for the next 24 to 36 hours as a subtropical ridge
strengthens to the east of Henri. After that time, an even faster
northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models are in
good agreement on this overall scenario, and little change was made
to the previous track forecast.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 33.0N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 39.3N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 43.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 48.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 46.5N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Quoting 251. Grothar:




fish storm
Quoting 283. sar2401:

OK, model fans, here are the big three for 00z Wednesday -

GFS



ECMWF (Euro)



CMC (GEM)



As you can see, all three models are not showing much in the Gulf. All three do develop a low near the Gulf and then lose it in the next period, develop it again, and then lose it. The GFS loses the 1010 mb low on the next frames. The CMC, of course, is back to the twin lows in the gulf, and one of them looks like it's aimed right at Alabama! But seriously, while we keep scanning the Gulf for signs of a storm, check out the Midwest and Canada for a real whopper. The ECMWF and GFS are developing a massive front that's more typical of late October than mid-September. The GFS does indeed develop hurricane winds, but they are in Minnesota, not Texas. Batten down the hatches up there, the going could get rough.


I've given up trying to understand the fixation some have with model runs a long ways out. If that's what people want to post, who am I to tell them otherwise. One of the lessons learned from Erika is an over reliance on models can cause forecasting mistakes. Conditions were horrible for Erika throughout her life. Yet, inexplicably, some of the models developed it into a hurricane. The conditions in the Gulf are impossible for development right now, and have been for a while. Until that shows any signs of changing, a model showing a 994 mb hurricane can be thrown out the window.
290. MahFL
Quoting 285. sar2401:

There must have been several levee breaches on the river to cause that kind of water flow.


What makes you think that river has any levees ? The cause was 20 inches of rain in 24 hours and the local topography.
291. MahFL
Quoting 289. tampabaymatt:



The conditions in the Gulf are impossible for development right now..


Some parts of the Gulf only have 10 kts of shear, that is certainly not impossible.
Quoting 291. MahFL:



Some parts of the Gulf only have 10 kts of shear, that is certainly not impossible.


That is correct, but not where the Euro was predicting development of a hurricane. That area is under 40-50 knots of shear.
Quoting 288. hurricanes2018:



fish storm


Fish Storm....WOW..I learned something new!
After two days of showing a strong system in the GOM, I see the Euro has joined the GFS with just a weak low moving inland.
Be interesting to see how this changes over time.
Both models put a low in the western GOM, so the area will need to be watched.
Quoting 290. MahFL:



What makes you think that river has any levees ? The cause was 20 inches of rain in 24 hours and the local topography.
If you look at the pictures in the article before typing you'd see a levee breach. What is it with you and your attack dog approach?
Quoting 294. Sfloridacat5:

After two days of showing a strong system in the GOM, I see the Euro has joined the GFS with just a weak low moving inland.
Be interesting to see how this changes over time.
Both models put a low in the western GOM, so the area will need to be watched.
to much wind shear from the El Niño
Quoting 297. Llamaluvr:

Wow Taz, that was a little harsh. I think this new avatar might be making you impatient. It is depressing and brown. Are you ready to switch to something more colorful and upbeat? It would be more fitting and good for everyone!


I had to laugh at that post actually. I think for as long as I can remember following this site, CaribBoy has complained about lack of rainfall. I mean, at this point, if he really wants that much rain, he should just move to the Tampa Bay area or somewhere along the I-4 corridor in C FL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 33.0N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 39.3N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 43.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
300. MahFL
Quoting 292. tampabaymatt:



That is correct, but not where the Euro was predicting development of a hurricane. That area is under 40-50 knots of shear.


Yes but that is today not next Tuesday.
Quoting 300. MahFL:



Yes but that is today not next Tuesday.


Again, you are correct. However, if you read my post a little more closely before attempting to refute it, you would notice I wrote "Unless that shows any signs of changing". I certainly have no idea what wind shear will be in the Gulf next Tuesday.
302. MahFL
Quoting 295. sar2401:

If you look at the pictures in the article before typing you'd see a levee breach. What is it with you and your attack dog approach?


I see that now, as always if you live in a flood plain you can expect to get flooded from time to time.
Who me attack dog ? I am a pussy cat, lol.
Quoting 253. vis0:


For more try "twcclassics" *** (most here i think know of that site, but just in case your a newbie) or "wxretro" (my site, search wxretro's  playlists......



Thanx for that vis0.....lotsa good tunes there !!
Good morning everyone. It looks like the WPC (HPC) has added a low in the BOC attached to a trough in the 4-day time period. Have a great day everyone!

305. MrHul
Quoting 226. SavannahStorm:

In the spirit of Dr. Master's post, I give you US Highway 80, the only road between Savannah and Tybee Island. Just a couple of minutes from my house, it floods almost every time there is an astronomical high "spring" tide. The frequency of these occurrences has only increased in recent years, I'm sure not only because of sea level rise, but also because of subsidence due to increased development of coastal barrier islands. The other factor that has increased nuisance flooding in the area is the building of sea walls along coastal creeks. The hard barriers and steep inclines created by them increase the flow rate of the incoming tide so that the water pushes toward properties that are unprotected, such as my back yard that fronts the marsh.








I live on Tybee, and the flooding is always inconvenient at least. Last week we had the road covered in 5 different areas. It was nearly impassable.
Quoting 240. HurriHistory:


My parents lost their house in Islamorada from Hurricane Donna. I remember going back to the house after about a month or so, due to all the bridges being washed out, and only finding a concrete slab where the house use to be. We did find a Scarlet Macaw in one of the few remaining defoliated trees and she has been a family pet for the last 55 yrs.
Quoting 294. Sfloridacat5:

After two days of showing a strong system in the GOM, I see the Euro has joined the GFS with just a weak low moving inland.
Be interesting to see how this changes over time.
Both models put a low in the western GOM, so the area will need to be watched.

Promise me they will continue to go back and forth each and every day,,,, ECMWF will probably be stronger next run...
Quoting 305. MrHul:



I live on Tybee, and the flooding is always inconvenient at least. Last week we had the road covered in 5 different areas. It was nearly impassable.

Savannah, beautiful, i tell ya...
Quoting 301. tampabaymatt:



Again, you are correct. However, if you read my post a little more closely before attempting to refute it, you would notice I wrote "Unless that shows any signs of changing". I certainly have no idea what wind shear will be in the Gulf next Tuesday.
And neither does anyone else.
CMC & Euro still show the remnants of Grace crossing south Florida on its way to the gulf. Maybe a rainmaker?

00zCMC


00zECMWF
Current wind shear has been weakening over the GOM... Still unfavorable,however
Ex Grace still has a ball of precip.
313. MahFL
Quoting 304. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good morning everyone. It looks like the WPC (HPC) has added a low in the BOC attached to a trough in the 4-day time period. Have a great day everyone!




DOOM !
Pitiful!
old time blogger and now met for a japanese news agency....robert speta was on twc this morning......talking about flooding in japan
Quoting 302. MahFL:



I see that now, as always if you live in a flood plain you can expect to get flooded from time to time.
Who me attack dog ? I am a pussy cat, lol.
Yes, you. Look, I've certainly been accused of the same thing, but you've had a habit lately of responding to a post negatively when you haven't even read what what was behind the post. You seem like a smart guy, and taking the time to read the links or do a little research will make your posts a lot more valuable.
Quoting 314. fmbill:

Pitiful!

Yeah, but it's 20% of pitiful. :-)
on the local front.....after 106 days with temps above 90 degrees...today's high will only be in the upper 80's......WHOOHOO!!!!!
Quoting 318. ricderr:

on the local front.....after 106 days with temps above 90 degrees...today's high will only be in the upper 80's......WHOOHOO!!!!!


We had our first rainfall of over 1" since 82 days ago last night in Round Rock, Tx ha
and poor henri gets no blog love....at the very least he deserves a mention as in an el nino period....we're actually above average time wise in relationship to tropical systems...........
This gulf system will form IMO. Also tiggerhurricanes2001, you got mail.
20% cv tw? this one looks very big. so far 2015 season never a dull moment.
We had our first rainfall of over 1" since 82 days ago last night in Round Rock, Tx ha


from flooding to nothing...to finally something again....i'll probably be in your neck of the woods next week in liberty hills....i'll wave to you
Quoting 323. ricderr:

We had our first rainfall of over 1" since 82 days ago last night in Round Rock, Tx ha


from flooding to nothing...to finally something again....i'll probably be in your neck of the woods next week in liberty hills....i'll wave to you


Yeah always the extremes. I have family in Liberty Hill, was just there yesterday. I'll be sure to wave back
Quoting 320. ricderr:

and poor henri gets no blog love....at the very least he deserves a mention as in an el nino period....we're actually above average time wise in relationship to tropical systems...........

And below average in ACE.
Quoting 315. ricderr:

old time blogger and now met for a japanese news agency....robert speta was on twc this morning......talking about flooding in japan
Good morning Ric...Very very bad there. I saw areal footage..Absolutely horrible and complete devastation.
Quoting 325. tiggerhurricanes2001:


And below average in ACE.
If we get a major, it'll change that friend
328. FOREX
Quoting 313. MahFL:



DOOM !
Pretty courageous with zero model support.
Quoting 327. HurricaneAndre:

If we get a major, it'll change that friend

We've already had one,Danny,i believed he generated 13 units.
Quoting 329. tiggerhurricanes2001:


We've already had one,Danny,i believed he generated 13 units.
Yeah, can you check your inbox
Quoting 304. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good morning everyone. It looks like the WPC (HPC) has added a low in the BOC attached to a trough in the 4-day time period. Have a great day everyone!


i see a low in the gom i better run to the store soon
Quoting 328. FOREX:

Pretty courageous with zero model support.

I already have, nothing new or important...
Quoting 330. HurricaneAndre:

Yeah, can you check your inbox

Already have, nothing new or important...
Quoting 283. sar2401:

OK, model fans, here are the big three for 00z Wednesday -

GFS



ECMWF (Euro)



CMC (GEM)



As you can see, all three models are not showing much in the Gulf. All three do develop a low near the Gulf and then lose it in the next period, develop it again, and then lose it. The GFS loses the 1010 mb low on the next frames. The CMC, of course, is back to the twin lows in the gulf, and one of them looks like it's aimed right at Alabama! But seriously, while we keep scanning the Gulf for signs of a storm, check out the Midwest and Canada for a real whopper. The ECMWF and GFS are developing a massive front that's more typical of late October than mid-September. The GFS does indeed develop hurricane winds, but they are in Minnesota, not Texas. Batten down the hatches up there, the going could get rough.


Those models so seem to be showing hints of a severe weather outbreak though...
Quoting 328. FOREX:

Pretty courageous with zero model support.
I wouldn't say zero model support. It's probably more accurate to say the model support has been inconsistent. It depends on how the front develops and if this kind of strange trough off the front really sets up. I think there will be a low form somewhere down there but I suspect it's going to be further south off Mexico and more likely to go inland over Mexico than make it to Texas. I don't have a lot of confidence in the idea though, so it will be interesting to see what actually happens.
Quoting 337. FunnelVortex:



Those models so seem to be showing hints of a severe weather outbreak though...
Yes indeed, especially for your neck of the woods. That's what I was trying to point out. While we're all hot to trot looking for what will likely be a weak low in the Gulf, if it actually develops, there's excellent model agreement for a big-time storm in the Midwest and Canada. Looks like the western Dakotas could see a pretty good snowstorm, and some fairly widespread severe weather for the upper Midwest looks likely.
Quoting 341. sar2401:

Yes indeed, especially for your neck of the woods. That's what I was trying to point out. While we're all hot to trot looking for what will likely be a weak low in the Gulf, if it actually develops, there's excellent model agreement for a big-time storm in the Midwest and Canada. Looks like the western Dakotas could see a pretty good snowstorm, and some fairly widespread severe weather for the upper Midwest looks likely.


What is Wisconsin in foras far as severe weather goes? Because our local forecast says t-storms mid week next week.
Quoting 342. FunnelVortex:



What is Wisconsin in foras far as severe weather goes? Because our local forecast says t-storms mid week next week.
You'll certainly have thunderstorms Thursday and maybe Wednesday, depending on how fast the front moves. If the GFS is be believed, it's going to be a very strong front with high winds. How much severe weather depends on how unstable the airmass is in place before the front arrives. Right now, the SPC is saying that buoyancy will be lacking for much severe weather. It certainly is something you should watch as the event gets closer and the SPC gets a better handle on it.
I bet the models are bullish on Snarkiness-
its still rainning over here in new haven,conn
Quoting 348. sar2401:

You'll certainly have thunderstorms Thursday and maybe Wednesday, depending on how fast the front moves. If the GFS is be believed, it's going to be a very strong front with high winds. How much severe weather depends on how unstable the airmass is in place before the front arrives. Right now, the SPC is saying that buoyancy will be lacking for much severe weather. It certainly is something you should watch as the event gets closer and the SPC gets a better handle on it.


Uh huh. If anything the storms will happen after 5:00PM.

It seems we haven't gotten any intense thunderstorms here for a while. Which is unusual. But I think that is starting to change. We had an MCC over here on Sunday night which drenched us in rain and caused flooding to the west of me. We had more rain Teusday and had yet more rain last night.

Our ground is pretty much saturated right now. Plus the river is high.

If severe storms form, flash flooding will be the main concern.

I'm not worried since my house is high enough above the riverbank and my whole city slopes gradually toward the river. But those low lying areas by the river may flood though. The last time the river flooded was in 2010 or 2011, and the park areas along the river were under three feet of water. And it was around this time of year also.

I think it was the same year we had that strong extratropical storm that brought us tropical storm force winds (the TS winds were far inland! away from the lakeshore), as well as storm surges on the lakes. And that winter we had a winter storm with constant lightning every 5-10 seconds for over an hour (dumped enough snow to cancel school).

Our weather pattern has been relatively "calm" for the past couple years (just small steady rains and snows with a couple storms here or there), but that seems to be shifting back to the "usual" pattern now.

Upper Midwestern weather I tell ya...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015

The cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the
convection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center.
Visible images also indicate that the system has little organization
in the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around
a mean center. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some
Dvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical
depression.

Southwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of
deep convection near the center of the cyclone. Global models,
however, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri
to strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the
north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours. Henri is still
forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days
and then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high
shear. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous
one.

Satellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8
kt. The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward
tomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical
ridge. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then
eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. There have been no significant changes
to the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an
update of the previous prediction.

The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be
post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 32.6N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 34.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 37.8N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 41.4N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 49.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting 318. ricderr:

on the local front.....after 106 days with temps above 90 degrees...today's high will only be in the upper 80's......WHOOHOO!!!!!


Amen! Whoohoo! The end is here! I didn't know you were in RR, thought El Paso for some reason.
I don't understand the twisting of words on here....No one said a hurricane was going to happen in the gulf next week but that it was interesting the Euro was being consistent.Another thing that was noted was we don't know what will happen but a low pressure of some type was being portrayed on all the models and rain was most certainly going to happen.How is that hard to understand or comprehend?
I saw a tweet from Joe B. about El Niño that it is looking more like a strong one comparing to 57-58 or 65-66 years.
Quoting 356. redwagon:



Amen! Whoohoo! The end is here! I didn't know you were in RR, thought El Paso for some reason.


I'm in RR. I'm not sure exactly where Ricderr is
Quoting 357. washingtonian115:

I don't understand the twisting of words on here....No one said a hurricane was going to happen in the gulf next week but that it was interesting the Euro was being consistent.Another thing that was noted was we don't know what will happen but a low pressure of some type was being portrayed on all the models and rain was most certainly going to happen.How is that hard to understand or comprehend?


It isn’t. But that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t note their opinion that it doesn’t seem likely. I don’t see any instance where anyone’s words were twisted.
Quoting 358. Bucsboltsfan:

I saw a tweet from Joe B. about El Niño that it is looking more like a strong one comparing to 57-58 or 65-66 years.


Were those years stronger or weaker El Ninos than the 97-98 event?
Quoting 362. Grothar:



Never discount a Cape Verde Seedling...
Quoting 359. tornadodude:



I'm in RR. I'm not sure exactly where Ricderr is

In Lago Vista, the terrain is such that subsidence from Ridges falling down gets channeled into a ~3 mile 'heat river' now that the lake's back.. our highs are consistently 6-8o hotter than *everybody* for a 30 mile radius. These 12wks have had me looking to move.
Is there any reason the Cape Verde system won't be like all the others--storm in central tropical Atlantic and then get tore up by shear?
Quoting 366. Starhopper:



MDR has warmed nicely....
Quoting 320. ricderr:

and poor henri gets no blog love....at the very least he deserves a mention as in an el nino period....we're actually above average time wise in relationship to tropical systems...........

Yes very little love for Henri huh : )

Quoting 365. redwagon:


In Lago Vista, the terrain is such that subsidence from Ridges falling down gets channeled into a ~3 mile 'heat river' now that the lake's back.. our highs are consistently 6-8o hotter than *everybody* for a 30 mile radius. These 12wks have had me looking to move.


I can only imagine.. Especially with that added heat. This has been my first summer in Texas since 1998... I do not miss it. I'm actually moving back to Tennessee in October.
NWS New Orleans/Slidell morning disco'

Previous discussion... /issued 316 am CDT Thursday Sep 10 2015/

Short term...

expansive upper trough is taking up the entire Continental U.S. This morning.
This system will help the first trough axis move into Alexandria
and stall today. A deep tropical moisture feed will remain in tact
as this front will not be enough to flush the area. The upper
trough will sharpen as stronger wind speeds drop into the west
side causing the upper trough to dig and slow its forward
progression. This will help send a fairly strong cold front
through the area during the day Saturday.

You will feel this one...

This cold front will flush the area of moisture sending dew points
screaming downward into the upper 50s by Sat evening and possibly
into the 40s by Sunday. There will be some cold air advection as
well only allowing temperatures to recover to around 80 Sunday. Saturday
will simply be the transition day for this to occur. Northerly
winds will move in about 8 hours before the cold front actually
arrives. But the patience will be well Worth it.

Long term...

don't let this beautiful weather spoil you though because it wont
stay long. Monday will be a trasition day as well as the cold
front is sent packing back to the north as a warm front. This will
occur rapidly as deep tropical moisture moves back into the area
through Monday morning. The sh/ts wont be far behind either and
pop numbers should be on the rise rather quickly by Monday
evening. All of this moisture will continue to feed over the area
and into another cold front over the Great Plains. A very weak
mostly disorganized system may be able to develop over the extreme
western Gulf along the coast of south Texas by the start of next
week. The Euro model has been back and forth with this system
while the GFS has been on a fairly stable solution pattern for the
last 3 days. Global analysis shows that the GFS has been
initializing rather well over these last 3 days...so long story
short...we will be settling with the GFS solution for now. Since
this system stays disorganized...our rain chances stay fairly
high. When these systems become stronger or achieve some
organization...they produce a nice subsident area on their
periphery as the good ole Carnot cycle is produced. This would
normally cause our rain chances to decrease. But since it should
be fairly weak...the deep moisture remains scattered out for
hundreds of miles allowing rain chances to remain elevated.
Quoting 367. weathergirl2001:

Is there any reason the Cape Verde system won't be like all the others--storm in central tropical Atlantic and then get tore up by shear?


Are you talking about the yellow x? Like Grace it's in a decent plume of moisture in the itcz but this monsoon trough is being interrupted by dry air halfway from Africa to the Leewards, but yes shear is very high across the MDR. We don't even have an invest yet and the GFS at least hasn't picked up on it so it's just a waiting game. In the meantime, both Baja in the EPAC and the Maritimes might see impacts from a tropical/subtropical storm respectively.
Quoting 361. tampabaymatt:



Were those years stronger or weaker El Ninos than the 97-98 event?
The 57-58 and 65-66 El Nino's are both classes as strong, but not as strong as the 72-73 event, and nowhere near as strong as 97-98.
Quoting 363. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Never discount a Cape Verde Seedling...
Except this year. Three CV storms have given it their best shot. I see no reason to think, other than hoping, that number four will turn out differently.
Quoting 368. tiggerhurricanes2001:


MDR has warmed nicely....

Yes and I see this..Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion Link

"THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
11N24W THEN RESUMES NEAR 15N24W TO 10N32W TO 10N38W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO
08N43W TO 12N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-17N
BETWEEN 10W-21W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST LATER TODAY."
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015


Excerpt:

THE DAY SHIFT/NHC COORDINATED A SPOT LOW NEAR 23N96W AT 15/12Z AND 25N96W AT 16/12Z. THAT'LL WORK RATHER NICELY WITH THE DAY6-7 PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS.


Well seems to be relatively quiet for now....will check back later. Thanks for the info all.

Here's a cool Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation - Large
Click faster button a few times. Nice res. Link

Edit: I fixed link oops.
Quoting 365. redwagon:


In Lago Vista, the terrain is such that subsidence from Ridges falling down gets channeled into a ~3 mile 'heat river' now that the lake's back.. our highs are consistently 6-8o hotter than *everybody* for a 30 mile radius. These 12wks have had me looking to move.


Really! Kind of ironic because that is such a beautiful resort area with the hills.

My wife's relative's have a family reunion at a church camp down there every thanksgiving. Its on 1431 past Lago Vista. My kids beg to go, and we make it down there about every other year.
Quoting 371. tornadodude:



I can only imagine.. Especially with that added heat. This has been my first summer in Texas since 1998... I do not miss it. I'm actually moving back to Tennessee in October.
Howdy T.D..What part of TN.?
Lil rain

Quoting 381. RitaEvac:

Lil rain


A really little rain...

I keep hoping though, but nothing much seems to change. At least it's only 89, but with a dewpoint of 76, the heat index is already 100. Even some clouds would be nice.

Quoting 380. hydrus:

Howdy T.D..What part of TN.?


Hey hey, Seymour, Tennessee.

In between Knoxville and Gatlinburg.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 361. tampabaymatt:



Were those years stronger or weaker El Ninos than the 97-98 event?
They were slightly weaker, strong to very strong Nino's, but no Super Godzilla Nino, as one or two of the bloggers on this site have been suggesting for the last 2 or so years.
with a strong El Niño what will this mean for the weather pattern in the northeast this coming winter say from northern NJ to northern Ma