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Grace on the Decline; 92L Forms near Bermuda

By: Bob Henson 3:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2015

As we approach the peak of hurricane season, 2015 continues to underwhelm in terms of tropical cyclone intensity across the Atlantic, though we’re a bit ahead of schedule on the number of named storms. From 1966 to 2009, the median date for the seventh named storm was September 16. This year’s #7 system was downgraded to Tropical Depression Grace with the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Grace saw a modest flare-up of convection on Monday night, but by Tuesday morning, showers and thunderstorms were again on the wane around Grace’s center, struggling against dry mid-level air and persistent wind shear. At 11 am EDT Tuesday, Grace was located more than 1200 east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west at about 20 mph. Grace’s top sustained winds were down to 35 mph, and with conditions even more hostile down the road, Grace should degenerate into a post-tropical low or a tropical wave by Thursday, if not sooner.


Figure 1. Invest 92L (top) is healthier-looking than Tropical Depression Grace (bottom) in this water-vapor image from the GOES-East satellite, taken at 1445 GMT (10:45 am EDT) on Tuesday, September 8, 2015.

Convection was much more robust on Tuesday morning around Invest 92L, located about 300 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Sea-surface temperatures throughout the northwest Atlantic north of 20°N are running 1-2°C above normal, which will provide 98L with ample oceanic fuel. Upper-level flow will remain weak above 98L for the next several days. NHC gives 98L a 40% chance of development over the next five days, and statistical models are in league with the HWRF in bringing Invest 92L to tropical storm strength over the next couple of days. By the weekend, 92L could be clipping southeast Newfoundland on a rapidly recurving trajectory.

Another area to watch is the far western Gulf of Mexico, where the tail end of a cool front may intersect with a weak upper-level low slated to drift westward during the week. Long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models continue to suggest that a tropical cyclone might develop in the far western Gulf over the weekend or early next week. Even if no such system develops, large amounts of deep tropical moisture are likely to be steered into the upper Gulf Coast region, possibly dumping heavy rain.

Linda surges to Category 3 strength
Making the most of a favorable environment that won’t last long, Hurricane Linda rapidly intensified to Category 3 strength on Tuesday morning, becoming the fifth major hurricane of 2015 in the Northeast Pacific. Linda’s top sustained winds were 120 mph in the 11 am EDT Tuesday advisory from NHC. Linda’s strength will be no match for the increasingly cool waters and stable air that lie ahead of the hurricane on its northwestward track, which will run parallel to and about 300 miles west of Baja California.


Figure 2. A visible-wavelength image of Hurricane Linda collected by the GOES-West satellite at 1430 GMT (10:30 am EDT) on Tuesday, September 8, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jimena continues on a rare track that’s taking it westward across the Pacific several hundred miles north of Hawaii. Jimena’s upper- and lower-level centers of circulation have been hard to reconcile over the last 24 hours, but the storm has hung on in the face of westerly wind shear of more than 25 mph. “This seems to be the season for stubbornly resilient storms,” mused a forecaster at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in a discussion of Jimena on Monday night. Jimena may survive for several more days before its remnants become absorbed in a midlatitude front.

Etau approaches Japan; Kilo heads for Siberia
Tropical Storm Etau will bring heavy rains and wind to the Japanese island of Honshu, including Tokyo, as it sweeps through on Tuesday night (Wednesday morning local time). More than 120,000 people have been advised to evacuate. Etau should make landfall near the city of Nagoya, more than 100 miles southwest of Tokyo.


Figure 3. The convective core of Tropical Storm Etau was visible on radar southeast of Japan at 0035 JST Wednesday, September 9 (11:35 am EDT Tuesday). Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

In its 11th day as a hurricane-strength system and its 20th day as a tropical cyclone, Typhoon Kilo continues its prolonged traverse of the North Pacific. Kilo was at minimal typhoon strength on Tuesday morning (sustained 1-minute winds of 75 mph) and was moving to the west-northwest at an increasing pace. Kilo may intensify slightly over the next several days before rapidly recurving toward Siberia’s Kamchatka Peninsula as a weakening post-tropical storm by this weekend. Though an impressively long-lived system, Kilo is destined to fall well short of the record 31 days as a tropical cyclone set by Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994.

Jeff Masters will be back with our next post on Wednesday.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an update on the remarkable new El Niño numbers in his Tuesday afternoon post.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Long-lived Typhoon Kilo remains an elegantly structured tropical cyclone, as evident in this enhanced infrared MTSAT satellite image from 1401 GMT (10:01 am EDT) on Tuesday, September 8, 2015. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Bob! Lots to watch today...
Thanks Mr. Henson.

And about your blog yesterday, you wrote that the Labor Day storm was the strongest landfalling cyclone in the Western Hemisphere. This is in terms of estimated wind speed correct? Because Haiyan was not as intense as the Labor Day storm (895 vs 892 mb) thus if strongest meant most intense that would make the Labor Day storm the strongest landfalling cyclone in the world.

I also think the Labor Day storm had winds that equaled Haiyan, deeper and more compact. If only we had satellites in 1935.
Quoting 2. win1gamegiantsplease:

Thanks Mr. Henson.

And about your blog yesterday, you wrote that the Labor Day storm was the strongest landfalling cyclone in the Western Hemisphere. This is in terms of estimated wind speed correct? Because Haiyan was not as intense as the Labor Day storm (895 vs 892 mb) thus if strongest meant most intense that would make the Labor Day storm the strongest landfalling cyclone in the world.

I also think the Labor Day storm had winds that equaled Haiyan, deeper and more compact. If only we had satellites in 1935.


Good question, win1gamegiantsplease. I used "Western Hemisphere" in yesterday's blog post for safety's sake, but actually, I'm not aware of any reading taken at sea level with a land-based instrument in either hemisphere that's lower than the 892 mb from the 1935 hurricane. If anyone knows of a contender, please chime in!

Thanks,
Bob
Thanks dok henson!

Here is the theme song for 92L.

Link
Great blog, maybe you should make a blog about how the steering patterns may lead to more U.S trouble next year, as it wont be a Super El Nino
Thanks for the new blog Mr. Henson!
Thanks for the Excellent Post Bob...
Quoting 8. Gearsts:


warm around FL

Used to live over this way. Both places are very Hot during the Summer....
This morning's ASCAT of Grace..
Thanks, Bob. I think you meant 92L all the way through that second paragraph. As usual, our MDR stroms just don't have much luck getting past 50w this year.
Quoting 4. 62901IL:

Thanks dok henson!

Here is the theme song for 92L.

Link


People on here always making my day brighter, thanks.
hearing rumors of storms... sounds like the system in the caribbean north of south america may develop and enter the gulf? what says the board
Quoting 5. Camerooski:

Great blog, maybe you should make a blog about how the steering patterns may lead to more U.S trouble next year, as it wont be a Super El Nino


Can you please provide support for these findings?
16. SLU
good blog


some wind shear on invest 92L
21. SLU
Interesting 2016 season lies ahead

hold up can someone answer me a question is that area expected to form in the western gulf next week and what are the chances it actually does turn into something tropical please someone answer my question
Quoting 22. James1981cane:

hold up can someone answer me a question is that area expected to form in the western gulf next week and what are the chances it actually does turn into something tropical please someone answer my question


"Long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models continue to suggest that a tropical cyclone might develop in the far western Gulf over the weekend or early next week. Even if no such system develops, large amounts of deep tropical moisture are likely to be steered into the upper Gulf Coast region, possibly dumping heavy rain." - I would go by this, for now.
No one is safe from the wind shear this season.

No one.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers located about 250 miles east-
southeast of Bermuda is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Strong upper-level winds are inhibiting the development
of this system, but these winds could become more conducive during
the next couple of days. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary today and tonight, and then move northward at 5 to 10 mph
on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the system should be
absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

INVEST 92L
could this storm expected to form in the western gulf become a hurricane thats what the last euro run showed
Quoting 23. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



"Long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models continue to suggest that a tropical cyclone might develop in the far western Gulf over the weekend or early next week. Even if no such system develops, large amounts of deep tropical moisture are likely to be steered into the upper Gulf Coast region, possibly dumping heavy rain." - I would go by this, for now.

The last euro run showed a hurricane in the central/ western gulf do u think this could happen
The tri-monthly Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) Index (adjusted with a 30-year sliding base period) tied 1997 for the 2nd highest value in JJA since 1870, only beaten by 1877. For the second month in a row, the unadjusted monthly value was once again at record levels, surpassing 1997.
Link



Kaplan's Extended SST v2 Oceanic NINO Index (1990-present). The latest JJA ONI value (+1.61C) was the 2nd highest since 1870, again only surpassed by the Super El Nino of 1877-78. This value is extremely close to what I reported several days ago via Reynolds OISSTv2 (which is intuitive given Kaplan directly utilizes OISSTv2 after 1981, using the dataset to the same resolution as its pre satellite era reconstruction) & is .39C & .30C higher than what ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b showed respectively for the same interval. The vast disparity amongst HADISST- Kaplan-OISSTv2, & ERSST likely emanates from their lack of direct satellite input, hence real-time figures from ERSSTv4 & ERSSTv3b may be suspect.



Additionally, as far as I'm concerned, Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSSTv4) & Kaplan's Extended Sea Surface Temperature Version 2 are the only 2 Sea Surface Teperature datasets that span approximately the entire length of the observational record are available in real-time. Until I am able to finish the 32+ member NINO 3.4 SST ensemble, these are the only datasets I can derive complete ~150 year Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) rankings from. Unfortunately, I still haven't reached the halfway point in this research. Ugh...

As I have said numerous times this season (and I'm not the only one), it's a sad season. For weather geeks, especially tropical cyclone geeks like us, it's painful to watch a healthy wave scoot off the African coast, only to know that it will be chewed up and spit out, like it was put through a Cuisinart.

Having said that, those ENSO models going forward look rather promising in terms of a much more active basin next year. If that indeed does come to fruition, one can only hope we have a steering pattern locked in place that favors curvature.
They estimated Haiyan pressure at 26.43..I believe it was much lower.



Quoting 27. James1981cane:


The last euro run showed a hurricane in the central/ western gulf do u think this could happen


Could this happen? Yes. Will this happen? It is too far out into the future for me to know. I am looking out the window now and I am not sure if it will rain within the next hour. I am not a weather geek so I am a poor choice to answer that question.
September NMME peaks around 2.4C to 2.5C in 2 to 3 months from now. Question is will the tri monthly's surpass the 2.35C of 1997.

Quoting 29. nash36:

As I have said numerous times this season (and I'm not the only one), it's a sad season. For weather geeks, especially tropical cyclone geeks like us, it's painful to watch a healthy wave scoot off the African coast, only to know that it will be chewed up and spit out, like it was put through a Cuisinart.

Having said that, those ENSO models going forward look rather promising in terms of a much more active basin next year. If that indeed does come to fruition, one can only hope we have a steering pattern locked in place that favors curvature.


Nash -

From where I sit in CT, it's a happy season (so far...), having dealt with Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012. I don't know where you live, but as a seasonal inhabitant of coastal CT, and owner of a condo near the gulf coast of Florida, I can tell you that having property in peril from tropical cyclones is no fun. they are never far from my mind, from July through October. To me, ENSO this year is a gift.
The one good thing about this El Nino will be the increased chance of a rarity in these parts: Snow.
Quoting 33. Alan8156:



Nash -

From where I sit in CT, it's a happy season (so far...), having dealt with Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012. I don't know where you live, but as a seasonal inhabitant of coastal CT, and owner of a condo near the gulf coast of Florida, I can tell you that having property in peril from tropical cyclones is no fun. they are never far from my mind, from July through October. To me, ENSO this year is a gift.


Hi, Alan. Oh, I totally agree. I live in the Charleston, SC area, but also lived in Tampa during the 2004/2005 seasons. We went through our fair share of hurricanes. I don't wish to go through them again.
Quoting 34. nash36:

The one good thing about this El Nino will be the increased chance of a rarity in these parts: Snow.


That's true but what this El-Nino is doing to the Caribbean is just plain bad. I was in ST. Thomas last week and I've never seen it so dry there infact it looks like the Baja with dry aired desert land with nice pristine ocean. It was shocking to see even the mango trees losing their leaves because of it being so dry. Also I talked to some locals and one guy said he has only .09" registered since July.
Quoting 29. nash36:

As I have said numerous times this season (and I'm not the only one), it's a sad season. For weather geeks, especially tropical cyclone geeks like us, it's painful to watch a healthy wave scoot off the African coast, only to know that it will be chewed up and spit out, like it was put through a Cuisinart.

Having said that, those ENSO models going forward look rather promising in terms of a much more active basin next year. If that indeed does come to fruition, one can only hope we have a steering pattern locked in place that favors curvature.


This is actually a relatively "good" year considering how powerful of an El Ninio is present. So far the season has been above predictions. If you really want to know a "sad" season, try 2013. In that season there was no El Ninio was present yet every storm died as a disorganized mess. 2013 is an example of a crapshoot season. This year, it was just expected to be this way.

Besides, the Gulf is moist with low pressures right now and we could see something next week...
Quoting 37. FunnelVortex:



This is actually a relatively "good" year considering how powerful of an El Ninio is present. So far the season has been above predictions. If you really want to know a "sad" season, try 2013. In that season no El Ninio was present yet every storm died as a disorganized mess.

Besides, the Gulf is moist with low pressures right now and we could see something next week...


2015 is right there too. As soon as these systems get close to the Caribbean they literally just fall apart to a disorganized mess. I suspect the Caribbean basin is done for the year as thius shear just doesn't seem to want to let up.
Convection burst with Grace in the middle of the day is impressive for a "dying" TC.
Quoting 36. StormTrackerScott:



That's true but what this El-Nino is doing to the Caribbean is just plain bad. I was in ST. Thomas last week and I've never seen it so dry there infact it looks like the Baja with dry aired desert land with nice pristine ocean. It was shocking to see even the mango trees losing their leaves because of it being so dry. Also I talked to some locals and one guy said he has only .09" registered since July.


I agree, Scott. Those people need rain, like yesterday.
Quoting 38. StormTrackerScott:



2015 is right there too. As soon as these systems get close to the Caribbean they literally just fall apart to a disorganized mess. I suspect the Caribbean basin is done for the year as thius shear just doesn't seem to want to let up.


The difference between 2015 and 2013 is that there actually is an El Ninio in 2015.
Quoting 34. nash36:

The one good thing about this El Nino will be the increased chance of a rarity in these parts: Snow.


Maybe? 1972-73 was a strong El Niño event and temps were above normal in the SE. We just had 3 straight storms form in the East Atlantic during a strong El Niño- that has never happened before. Every El Niño is different so we'll have to wait and see. Btw - I would love to see snow but the chances are extremely slim.
Quoting 39. scott39:

Convection burst with Grace in the middle of the day is impressive for a "dying" TC.


And right over her center


She may make it back to TS status briefly before she is killed off
Quoting 34. nash36:

The one good thing about this El Nino will be the increased chance of a rarity in these parts: Snow.


El Ninios generally bring warmer winter temps here to the upper midwest. But with stronger extratropical storms that suck cold air further south as they pass. So maybe one of those fronts will reach you...
Quoting 44. FunnelVortex:



El Ninios generally bring warmer winter temps here to the upper midwest. But with stronger extratropical storms that suck cold air further south as they pass. So maybe one of those fronts will reach you...


It would be nice. It just generally doesn't get that cold here during the winter. I wouldn't mind a solid two week period that didn't make it out of the 20's. We could use a good, hard freeze. You know you can't really use the term "winter", when the fire ants are still alive and kicking in January.
Quoting 43. FunnelVortex:



And right over her center


She may make it back to TS status briefly before she is killed off
It looks to be wrapping up tighter too.


Looks like Grace may have temporarily found a "sweet spot" kinda impressive for this time of the day
Quoting 43. FunnelVortex:



And right over her center


She may make it back to TS status briefly before she is killed off






The 12z CMC seems to imply an eventual return to Tropical Storm status as it continues west.
Quoting 46. scott39:

It looks to be wrapping up tighter too.


Yeah. Grace's convection is not so good, but her lower structure and swirl is beautiful. If she hadn't been attacked by all the dry air she could have actually been a pretty storm.
I have been reading on this gulf system expected to form next week and i would give it a 20 percent chance of development in the next five days and a 40 percent in 7 days can someone please tell me how to make a blog on this website
Quoting 14. Hhunter:

hearing rumors of storms... sounds like the system in the caribbean north of south america may develop and enter the gulf? what says the board
There is no system in the Caribbean north of South America. Rumors of storms without something backing them up are just that - rumors.



impressive come back for now!
12z CMC

Sept 14


Sept 15


Sept 16
Quoting 37. FunnelVortex:



This is actually a relatively "good" year considering how powerful of an El Ninio is present. So far the season has been above predictions. If you really want to know a "sad" season, try 2013. In that season there was no El Ninio was present yet every storm died as a disorganized mess. 2013 is an example of a crapshoot season. This year, it was just expected to be this way.

Besides, the Gulf is moist with low pressures right now and we could see something next week...
As you said for you and others here is a sad and painful season.Do you live in Dominica? Of course not.
Raining cats and dogs again here in Orange Park. 4in of rain so far for Sept.
way too far out but..CMC has this going into SE florida,going NW into tampa bay then out in the gulf...
2pm is interesting our ABC tw is trying to lay down a low level circulation. no i dont think this could turn into anything but if a weak and feeble wave can do decent in the leewards wait to grace enters the picture.
September 8 2015
Quoting 56. LargoFl:

way too far out but..CMC has this going into SE florida,going NW into tampa bay then out in the gulf...


Well the GFS has lower pressures in that area at 240
Grace zoomed in to make her look good lol :

What is the shear expected to be like in the gulf during the next week to 10 days?
Quoting 60. MahFL:

Grace zoomed in to make her look good lol :




Derp
Quoting 61. Sandcat:

What is the shear expected to be like in the gulf during the next week to 10 days?
100 mph
Quoting 62. FunnelVortex:



Derp
Yes is very sad and painful.
Good lord, look at all the yellow, that's some intense wet convection :

Quoting 64. prcane4you:

Yes is very sad and painful.


Well someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed...
eastern carib.? could it be more favorable this time around?
Quoting 68. islander101010:

eastern carib.? could it be more favorable this time around?


Well there is a little bit of a "sweet spot" in there right now in between all the shear

The blog is dead now but I have a feeling when we have a actual threat to the United States next week it'll pick up again.Unlike the last few years where a high pressure was set up north this time a trough will be in the Mid west which will tug whatever is there up north towards Texas.
Very hot here in the Northeast today... Boston hit 96F a little earlier, a new record for the day. It's been dry as well, many places in central and southern New England are running yearly precipitation deficits of 3-6". The foliage season is in serious jeopardy, likely already irreparably harmed. Looks like some widespread beneficial rain for the end of the week though.
12Z Euro has strong hurricane in the Gulf come day 9/10 and moves it slowly east toward FL. Unusual track but is what you would expect in this strong of an El-Nino.

Trough starts to capture this hurricane and moves it ENE slowly toward FL as a upper trough digs SE.

OMG the bottom fell out here in wilmington nc in the past hour. I dont have a rain gauge but if i had anticipated this, i would have set my measuring cup outside. I think it would be full and its a 4 cup
Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro has strong hurricane in the Gulf come day 9/10 and moves it slowly east toward FL. Unusual track but is what you would expect in this strong of an El-Nino.




Just more reason to look out in the gulf next week

Quoting 50. James1981cane:

I have been reading on this gulf system expected to form next week and i would give it a 20 percent chance of development in the next five days and a 40 percent in 7 days can someone please tell me how to make a blog on this website

Look on the right side of this blog under recommended link for a link about that or click on your handle & on the next page in the upper right click the blue create blog button.
weak and feeble ABC wave A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N64W TO 11N65W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. next one at 55w needs to be watched for td formation
I wouldn't be surprised if this happens because the pattern has a history of repeating its self.I said this back when Bill impacted the upper Texas coast to not be surprised if a storm later in the season impacts the same area.
It seems all the models are supporting something in the gulf next week...
Euro 240 hours.
Quoting 35. nash36:



Hi, Alan. Oh, I totally agree. I live in the Charleston, SC area, but also lived in Tampa during the 2004/2005 seasons. We went through our fair share of hurricanes. I don't wish to go through them again.


South Carolina - so you are much more often under the gun than me! We had not had much after Gloria in 1985 until Irene (although Bob in 1991 came close and Floyd in 1999 was mostly a rainmaker).
Quoting 77. washingtonian115:

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens because the pattern has a history of repeating its self.I said this back when Bill impacted the upper Texas coast to not be surprised if a storm later in the season impacts the same area.


Euro sends it east. I see why too as the Southern jet begins to take hold and a upper level trough is diving SE from the Midwest. FL might be in trouble if this Euro verifies.

GFS has 40,s for a large area...Quite chilly for this time of year..Not surprising , we had 50,s in August.

Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



Euro sends it east. I see why too as the Southern jet begins to take hold and a upper level trough is diving SE from the Midwest. FL might be in trouble if this Euro verifies.




The Euro has been showing this for the past 3 runs...
Quoting 82. hydrus:

GFS has 40,s for a large area...Quite chilly for this time of year..Not surprising , we had 50,s in August.




It's that same trough that causes this storm in the Gulf and is also the reason the Euro has it sliding slowly east. It's a unusual track but if you think about it this is the time a year when troughs become more dominate across the US especially with a powerful El-Nino in place.

Fall is beginning to takes its stand now!
The euro is very consistant on this gulf storm forming in 10 days we might be preparing for a hurricane hit on the gulf coast
Quoting 63. prcane4you:

100 mph


Better than the apparently 200mph wind shears in the MDR
If 92L gets the H name we could be dealing with a "I" storm next week and the I storms are notorious.Ingrid in 2013 was retired and we never reached it in 2014.....
Quoting 84. FunnelVortex:



The Euro has been showing this for the past 3 runs...


....which tends to begin to raise eyebrows. All season, both the ECMWF and the GFS have been notorious flip-floppers, with little to no run-to-run consistency. When we start seeing the same solution for many runs in a row, that could be troubling.
Quoting 87. James1981cane:

The euro is very consistant on this gulf storm forming in 10 days we might be preparing for a hurricane hit on the gulf coast



Euro is doing this in response to a strong cold front stalling across the northern Gulf then eventually starts to get nudged eastward @ day 10 a another strong trough dives SE. We had a storm in late September early October in 1996 that took a track similar to what the Euro is showing. That storm came ashore across the FL Big Bend in early October sometime around October 5th.
Quoting 87. James1981cane:

The euro is very consistant on this gulf storm forming in 10 days we might be preparing for a hurricane hit on the gulf coast



I've lived in Levy county in Florida my whole life and we've never gotten stuck by a hurricane, so hopefully that will continue.
Hi Scott-

I can see that we can get up to 11 named storms this season.
Well, so far none of the EURO ensembles are agreeing with the operational. Have to see what this afternoon shows.
The low the Euro shows becoming a hurricane forms within the 5 day time frame:



Definitely something to keep an eye on.
Quoting 90. nash36:



....which tends to begin to raise eyebrows. All season, both the ECMWF and the GFS have been notorious flip-floppers, with little to no run-to-run consistency. When we start seeing the same solution for many runs in a row, that could be troubling.


With the Caribbean closed for business likely for the rest of the year the Gulf becomes the place to look for mischief.
Quoting 93. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Scott-

I can see that we can get up to 11 named storms this season.


We might even if they are mostly weak or short lived systems
Quoting 91. StormTrackerScott:



Euro is doing this in response to a strong cold front stalling across the northern Gulf then eventually starts to get nudged eastward @ day 10 a another strong trough dives SE. We had a storm in late September early October in 1996 that took a track similar to what the Euro is showing. That storm came ashore across the FL Big Bend in early October sometime around October 5th.

Josephine? I remember that one, lost power with that and there were tornadoes reported across the Peninsula.
K8cane, it pretty much been raining here every SINGLE day..its getting old..LOL

and unfortunately it will continue.."Wilmington..the new Seattle"

its pouring here again..

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

NCC129-082115-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0065.150908T1919Z-150908T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NEW HANOVER NC-
319 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 319 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WILMINGTON...KINGS GRANT...CASTLE HAYNE...WRIGHTSBORO...CAPE FEAR
COMMUNITY COLLEGE NORTH CAMPUS...MURRAYVILLE...WILMINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HIGHTSVILLE AND OGDEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 414 AND 416.
INTERSTATE 140

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

Quoting 99. sporteguy03:


Josephine? I remember that one, lost power with that and there were tornadoes reported across the Peninsula.


Hah that's it! It was a surprise as it was predicted to hit Texas but got pushed east then NE across N FL. Surprised a lot of people in FL who weren't expecting it. After it passed Fall temps moved in.
CMC was the first to pick up on a strong hurricane in the gulf...but then again it's always over developing systems...Let's see what the GFS shows.
Picked up .96" earlier here in Altamonte. Had over 15" here in August.
Just for fun from Farmer's Almanac for Florida:
Sep 21-22: Hurricane threat, mainly southLink
Quoting 103. washingtonian115:

CMC was the first to pick up on a strong hurricane in the gulf...but then again it's always over developing systems...Let's see what the GFS shows.


Euro might be blowing smoke as these frontal type systems usually take a lot of time to build. The Euro spins this Gulf low up fast which is very unusual and raises eye brows given what history has shown us with Gulf lows forming off old fronts.
107. 882MB
Models are also becoming in better agreement of another storm coming off the coast of Africa in 5 to 6 days. Might be this large cluster of thunderstorms over eastern Africa.

Quoting 106. StormTrackerScott:



Euro might be blowing smoke as these frontal type systems usually take a lot of time to build. The Euro spins this Gulf low up fast which is very unusual and raises eye brows given what history has shown us with Gulf lows forming off old fronts.
Things can spin up fast in the gulf.If all things are ago in the atmosphere with sst that are already warm the model may not be far off.It'll be forming in the BOC which can help spin up storms faster.
109. JLPR2
Grace should pass over this buoy later tonight.
Quoting 106. StormTrackerScott:



Euro might be blowing smoke as these frontal type systems usually take a lot of time to build. The Euro spins this Gulf low up fast which is very unusual and raises eye brows given what history has shown us with Gulf lows forming off old fronts.
Hurricane Opal 1995, formed on Sept. 11. so it is possible if conditions environmentally and atmospherically align themselves.

111. 882MB
So much talk about a below average hurricane season. Models are predicting 2 storms next week, 1 in the Gulf of Mexico, and the other coming off of Africa, and we have 92L. Aren't we in El Nino? I wont be surprise if my predictions of 13/7/4 verify.
Quoting 107. 882MB:

Models are also becoming in better agreement of another storm coming off the coast of Africa in 5 to 6 days. Might be this large cluster of thunderstorms over eastern Africa.


Not saying a word.

Quoting 108. washingtonian115:

Things can spin up fast in the gulf.If all things are ago in the atmosphere with sst that are already warm the model may not be far off.It'll be forming in the BOC which can help spin up storms faster.


I agree they can but the last few years have been frustrating with regards to Gulf systems. However I must say I don't remember a time during the last 3 years where the Euro has spun up a strong hurricane in the Gulf. One thing is for certain it has been wet here across C FL and this could be a sign of something down the road.
Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:



I agree they can but the last few years have been frustrating with regards to Gulf systems. However I must say I don't remember a time during the last 3 years where the Euro has spun up a strong hurricane in the Gulf. One thing is for certain it has been wet here across C FL and this could be a sign of something down the road.
Any system if it forms is still 7 to 10 days out.
I am from the Dominican Republic in the caribbean( sorry for my English) and drought here has been a serious problems since we are an agricultural country and our crops have negatively affected as a result. My question is to any smart member, how long is this condition expected to go? comments will be appreciated
Quoting 117. Gurena:

I am from the Dominican Republic in the caribbean( sorry for my English) and drought here has been a serious problems since we are an agricultural country and our crops have negatively affected as a result. My question is to any smart member, how long is this condition expected to go? comments will be appreciated


Until next Spring. Unless we can get some Winter fronts to stall out across your area giving you guys some relief. More than likely though things may not change until next May.
Quoting 82. hydrus:

GFS has 40,s for a large area...Quite chilly for this time of year..Not surprising , we had 50,s in August.


My forecast currently only has a low of 50 for Sun morning, but not sure how recent update was.

Just started raining hard w/ a little blow in S C IL. We needed it. Last little push for later planted crops. Haven't seen any come out in my area yet, but started up around Springfield at end of Aug.
120. MahFL
Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro has strong hurricane in the Gulf come day 9/10 and moves it slowly east toward FL. Unusual track but is what you would expect in this strong of an El-Nino.

Trough starts to capture this hurricane and moves it ENE slowly toward FL as a upper trough digs SE.




Please don't tease me so !
113. Gearsts

The blog will literally be in turmoil xD.
Quoting 110. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hurricane Opal 1995, formed on Sept. 11. so it is possible if conditions environmentally and atmospherically align themselves.


Boy I remember that one!  Gulf was lucky she weakened a bit before she made landfall.  I still remember how she just stalled and stalled down there before making up mind on where to go, If I remember correctly that was a hard storm to forecast.  I don't think it was originally projected to move NE, but because it stayed stationary over warm waters it got stronger and stronger then boom off to the NE she went.
Agreement, with more consistency.
Greetings blog, I see we are model watching and predicting for a system in the GOM that does not exist in the physical world yet...... in fact I think a full fledge hurricane will spin up right over Florida sucking in warm water from both sides of Florida and producing cat 5 winds.....but with no storm surge since it will form over Florida.
Quoting 124. RitaEvac:

Greetings blog, I see we are model watching and predicting for a system in the GOM that does not exist in the physical world yet...... in fact I think a full fledge hurricane will spin up right over Florida sucking in warm water from both sides of Florida and producing cat 5 winds.....but with no storm surge since it will form over Florida.


What...?

Can that even happen?
126. 882MB
Quoting 117. Gurena:

I am from the Dominican Republic in the caribbean( sorry for my English) and drought here has been a serious problems since we are an agricultural country and our crops have negatively affected as a result. My question is to any smart member, how long is this condition expected to go? comments will be appreciated


Hey there Gurena, if we enter this winter season with an El Nino like we are in right now the Caribbean becomes wetter then normal, so that will be our only hope. Over here in PR its the same thing, but I have my fingers crossed, on a very wet winter due to the Strong El Nino we are in. :)
Quoting 122. ILwthrfan:


Boy I remember that one!  Gulf was lucky she weakened a bit before she made landfall.  I still remember how just stalled and stalled, If I remember correctly that was a hard storm to forecast.  I don't think it was originally projected to move NE, but because it stayed stationary over warm waters it got stronger and stronger then boom off to the NE she went.



September & October are bad months to be in FL. September 2000 & 2001 comes to mind as well when we had Gulf systems form and was projected to go NW then turned NE with only 1 to 2 days warning.
Nah I'm just pulling yalls legs, Florida gonna sit on sidelines watching the event unfold while a front stalls out over Texas and gulf coast, and pulls all the rain straight on up into TX


latest from rapidscat
Quoting 117. Gurena:

I am from the Dominican Republic in the caribbean( sorry for my English) and drought here has been a serious problems since we are an agricultural country and our crops have negatively affected as a result. My question is to any smart member, how long is this condition expected to go? comments will be appreciated
131. txjac
Quoting 128. RitaEvac:

Nah I'm just pulling yalls legs, Florida gonna sit on sidelines watching the event unfold while a front stalls out over Texas and gulf coast, and pulls all the rain straight on up into TX


I hope not ...next Tuesday is when my son leaves for Australia ...that's all I'd need. It's already gonna be a rough week for me, dont need anything tropical on top of it

Although ...I do love the rain
Quoting 124. RitaEvac:

Greetings blog, I see we are model watching and predicting for a system in the GOM that does not exist in the physical world yet...... in fact I think a full fledge hurricane will spin up right over Florida sucking in warm water from both sides of Florida and producing cat 5 winds.....but with no storm surge since it will form over Florida.


now wait a minute.. straddling the state, you would have two onshore winds one NE, one SW... Jacksonville/Tampa, or Melbourne/Naples, or Miami/Key West.. unless it panhandles, East/south, West north.. sooo, Pensacola/Pontchartrain. Double your pleasu.. errr pain
Tropical Depression GRACE going to be a tropical storm again!!!

Only thing I'll agree is that there's something that could develop in the gulf in the next 5 to 7 days anywhere from the BOC to the Northern Gulf. To say where it could go from there with models that are 10 days out is grasping at way too many straws.
East Haven, CT temp 94F AT 4:27pm on september 8 2015 but fall weather will be here soon!!



doom!!!


look like invest 92L maybe hitting land
Quoting 134. indianrivguy:



now wait a minute.. straddling the state, you would have two onshore winds one NE, one SW... Jacksonville/Tampa, or Melbourne/Naples, or Miami/Key West.. unless it panhandles, East/south, West north.. sooo, Pensacola/Pontchartrain. Double your pleasu.. errr pain


Did I mention Vort cane?
ULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015

...JIMENA FORECAST TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 153.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 153.4 WEST. JIMENA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES...350
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

wow TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 53
Quoting 92. JrWeathermanFL:



I've lived in Levy county in Florida my whole life and we've never gotten stuck by a hurricane, so hopefully that will continue.



SSSSHHHHH !!! ....you're talkin' too loud man....
Quoting 114. Grothar:

Not saying a word.


There is a small moisture channel running E to W. I see she is using it to her advantage.

Quoting 136. ElConando:

Only thing I'll agree is that there's something that could develop in the gulf in the next 5 to 7 days anywhere from the BOC to the Northern Gulf. To say where it could go from there with models that are 10 days out like in the way one blogger is doing is grasping at way too many straws.


Yeah he has it all figured out already, it's going to Florida.
Before getting too excited about what the operational ECMWF shows, note that only ~5 ensemble members have a tropical cyclone in the Gulf by days 9-10. The ones that do show development are nowhere near as bullish as the operational run.
The actual dates for Hurricane Opal are that it formed on September 27, 1995 and dissipated on October 5, 1995. As an insurance adjuster I remember trying to get news of the storm as it was making landfall but all the television stations were covering was the O.J. Simpson trial verdict.

Quoting 122. ILwthrfan:

Boy I remember that one!  Gulf was lucky she weakened a bit before she made landfall.  I still remember how she just stalled and stalled down there before making up mind on where to go, If I remember correctly that was a hard storm to forecast.  I don't think it was originally projected to move NE, but because it stayed stationary over warm waters it got stronger and stronger then boom off to the NE she went.

There is a place in Alaska, Ketchikan, that makes Florida look like an arid area from how much rain falls there!
Quoting 147. LargoFl:




Dat low over Montana, though
Looks like we will have some things to be watching next week. Model agreement is good.
models are consistent NHC Should note this in their next discussion because all models showing something
The 12zECMWF Ensembles are a mess, 5 sub 1000mb Ensemble Members and many sub 1005mb for the western GOM early next week....The 12z operational ECMWF has more Ensemble support than it has had in previous runs so IMO developing chances are creeping up for early next week.
That storm quickly filled our ditches in S C IL, suspect .5 - 1" in about 20 min. Looks like peak gusts 30-35. Dropped temps into lower 70s, were around 82 after clouds moved in, 90 was high a little after noon.

Also, RIP One Tough Dominican, Joaquin Andujar - "You never know". Only 62, Cardinal Nation mourns his passing, a true character and a great pitcher.
Quoting 153. James1981cane:

models are consistent NHC Should note this in their next discussion because all models showing something
The 12zECMWF Ensembles are a mess, 5 sub 1000mb Ensemble Members and many sub 1005mb for the western GOM early next week....The 12z operational ECMWF has more Ensemble support than it has had in previous runs so IMO developing chances are creeping up for early next week.



Way to far out with many uncertainties for them to say anything now.
Quoting 155. Bucsboltsfan:



Way to far out with many uncertainties for them to say anything now.


Ok Well still the people living along the gulf coast should have a little concern, because the euro usually dissipates everything and now its finaly forming something
Quoting 146. olnutt:

The actual dates for Hurricane Opal are that it formed on September 27, 1995 and dissipated on October 5, 1995. As an insurance adjuster I remember trying to get news of the storm as it was making landfall but all the television stations were covering was the O.J. Simpson trial verdict.




The news: Never covering anything actually important, only what is sensational.
Quoting 153. James1981cane:

models are consistent NHC Should note this in their next discussion because all models showing something
The 12zECMWF Ensembles are a mess, 5 sub 1000mb Ensemble Members and many sub 1005mb for the western GOM early next week....The 12z operational ECMWF has more Ensemble support than it has had in previous runs so IMO developing chances are creeping up for early next week.

A lot of time to watch no need to panic.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL072015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015

A new burst of deep convection has occurred over the southern
semicircle but, like the previous one, it lacks any banding
features. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is a blend
of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Grace could
continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next
day or two. However, it will be moving through an environment of
increasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air over the next
several days. This should cause weakening, and the system is likely
to become a remnant low in 36 hours if not sooner. There is also
the possibility of the cyclone opening up into a wave during the
forecast period, which is what the GFS and ECMWF models have been
depicting in their recent runs. The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus IVCN.

The initial motion continues westward, or 275/16 kt. No changes
are evident in the steering scenario for the next 3 days. A low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to provide a brisk
easterly steering current for Grace or its remnants. The
dynamical track guidance has been in very close agreement for the
past couple of days. The official forecast is close to the
dynamical model consensus and is basically and update of the
previous one.

The center of Grace should pass very near NOAA data buoy 41041 in a
couple of hours, which should provide useful data about the tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.5N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 16.8N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 158. Gearsts:

A lot of time to watch no need to panic.


No boarding up the windows before a system has even formed? Reminds me of that commercial where the girl gives her retirement notice to her boss and she's not retiring for 15 years.
Quoting 160. Sfloridacat5:



No boarding up the windows before a system has even formed?
Actually you guys should. ;)
Quoting 161. JrWeathermanFL:


It's getting there...
Quoting 154. dabirds:

That storm quickly filled our ditches in S C IL, suspect .5 - 1" in about 20 min. Looks like peak gusts 30-35. Dropped temps into lower 70s, were around 82 after clouds moved in, 90 was high a little after noon.

Also, RIP One Tough Dominican, Joaquin Andujar - "You never know". Only 62, Cardinal Nation mourns his passing, a true character and a great pitcher.


Da. I didn't realize you were in IL. For some reason I always thought you lived in the Florida Keys.
Quoting 162. Gearsts:

Actually you guys should. ;)


The last time I put up hurricane shutters I got a notice from the neighborhood association to take them down. If there is no real threat, you are not to have hurricane shutters covering your windows. I know - I should find a new neighborhood to live in.

In my case, I put them up during a "real threat" but did not take them down after the "threat" had passed. I worked hard to put them up so I was just going to keep them up until the season was over.

And the hurricane shutters were painted the same color as the house and actually looked nice.
Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:



The last time I put up hurricane shutters I got a notice from the neighborhood association to take them down. If there is no real threat, you are not to have hurricane shutters covering your windows. I know - I should find a new neighborhood to live in.


Don't they have metal shutters that raise/lower nowdays? If not, they should
Quoting 156. James1981cane:



Ok Well still the people living along the gulf coast should have a little concern, because the euro usually dissipates everything and now its finaly forming something
Duly noted. Vodka check. Beer check. Generator check. Window units check. The important things are covered. If we have an issue with a relatively weak storm we will just invite the neighborhood to bring all their meat out of the deep freezers and put it on a ridicoulasly large smoker somebody gave me that you pull behind a truck. I have a half cord of pecan wood ready to go. In all seriousness, nobody wants a damaging major but a baby storm isn't uncool. I'm sure somebody is gonna rage on me for suggesting any landfall storm is cool....
Quoting 167. FunnelVortex:



Don't they have metal shutters that raise/lower nowdays? If not, they should


My house has manual shutters (roll down) that cover the back of the house only. We have almost all windows in the back - view of the golf course.
But no manual shutters on the side or front of the house.
Just to be that guy, remember the GFS had a sub-950 mb hurricane staring at my house in 180-210 hours out by the name of Erika. Both the GFS and NAVGEM are keeping a potential low much weaker than the Euro. That being said it's peak week, play by ear.

Quoting 111. 882MB:

So much talk about a below average hurricane season. Models are predicting 2 storms next week, 1 in the Gulf of Mexico, and the other coming off of Africa, and we have 92L. Aren't we in El Nino? I wont be surprise if my predictions of 13/7/4 verify.


11/5/2 for me, I just wanted a hurricane to be Joaquin, but realized that would only be ten :/
Quoting 168. Sandcat:

Duly noted. Vodka check. Beer check. Generator check. Window units check. The important things are covered. If we have an issue with a relatively weak storm we will just invite the neighborhood to bring all their meat out of the deep freezers and put it on a ridicoulasly large smoker somebody gave me that you pull behind a truck. I have a half cord of pecan wood ready to go. In all seriousness, nobody wants a damaging major but a baby storm isn't uncool. I'm sure somebody is gonna rage on me for suggesting any landfall storm is cool....


Don't worry, you probably are not the only one. :)

People think I am nuts for liking severe weather and massive winter storms :)
Quoting 120. MahFL:



Please don't tease me so !
This is obsessed waiting a cat 5 in the GOM,specially hitting Tampa.
Quoting 156. James1981cane:



Ok Well still the people living along the gulf coast should have a little concern, because the euro usually dissipates everything and now its finaly forming something


Doesn't mean its right. Besides, how would you communicate a model run to the general population that's at the medium range (lower confidence)? Right now, the NHC has trouble communicating uncertainty with a formed system in the five-day range (Erika).
Quoting 135. hurricanes2018:

Tropical Depression GRACE going to be a tropical storm again!!!


Like Fred, she will be having burst of convection, but wont be caught by a cold front on these low latitudes, of course, the only problem is the mid level dry air, because with an strong core, high water temps, even moderate shear could be handle...
Quoting 151. Climate175:

Looks like we will have some things to be watching next week. Model agreement is good.
maybe!!
Quoting 168. Sandcat:

Duly noted. Vodka check. Beer check. Generator check. Window units check. The important things are covered. If we have an issue with a relatively weak storm we will just invite the neighborhood to bring all their meat out of the deep freezers and put it on a ridicoulasly large smoker somebody gave me that you pull behind a truck. I have a half cord of pecan wood ready to go. In all seriousness, nobody wants a damaging major but a baby storm isn't uncool. I'm sure somebody is gonna rage on me for suggesting any landfall storm is cool....


Every storm is different. Allison was a retired TS for massive flooding. I was in a Cat-2 last year and basically just blew sand around. You never know. Though I'll be blunt, it would take something like the GFS tried to do with Erika to make me pack it up.



maybe 50% at 8pm
Love how the models split with half of them taking a path north of Hispaniola with the others going south of the Island.
Quoting 169. Sfloridacat5:



My house has manual shutters (roll down) that cover the back of the house only. We have almost all windows in the back - view of the golf course.
But no manual shutters on the side or front of the house.
Bet those come in handy when the course runs those 'learn to golf' weekends!
Quoting 183. Sfloridacat5:

Love how the models split with half of them taking a path north of Hispaniola with the others going south of the Island.
The models have been horrible all year. They are going to need to be much better next year. Especially considering how it won't be a record El Nino to kill the waves. There won't be as much SAL in the air. And if this steering pattern persists into next year, we could have many more tropical storms and hurricanes making impact in the gulf and east coast.
So in Fort Lauderdalein 2006 after Katrina, Wilma, Jeanne, and Frances in 04-05. It was mandatory to have hurricane force windows, and doors installed in your home. And since then we have not been impacted by a hurricane. Not to mention all of this cost crazy $$$. But I am very excited for the next hurricane to hit SE FL because I can watch out my windows!! :)
Quoting 184. JNFlori30A:

Bet those come in handy when the course runs those 'learn to golf' weekends!


Yeah. ahah
You should see all the busted concrete tiles on many of the roofs that line the fairways. It looks like a "golf ball" sized hail storm came through the area.
Quoting 186. Camerooski:

So in Fort Lauderdalein 2006 after Katrina, Wilma, Jeanne, and Frances in 04-05. It was mandatory to have hurricane force windows, and doors installed in your home. And since then we have not been impacted by a hurricane. Not to mention all of this cost crazy $$$. But I am very excited for the next hurricane to hit SE FL because I can watch out my windows!! :)


I don't think it would really matter in a Cat 3-5, would it? How effective are those windows?
Thunderstorms starting to fire up.......PW of almost 2"

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
CAC073-082245-
/O.NEW.KSGX.SV.W.0012.150908T2149Z-150908T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
249 PM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 345 PM PDT

* AT 247 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER JULIAN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JULIAN...HWY 78 BETWEEN BANNER AND S2...HWY 78 BETWEEN S2 AND
BORREGO SPRINGS RD...HWY 79 BETWEEN OAK GROVE AND AGUANGA...WARNER
SPRINGS...LAKE CUYAMACA...HWY S2 BETWEEN HWY 79 AND HWY 78...HWY 79
BETWEEN WARNER SPRINGS AND OAK GROVE...HWY 79 BETWEEN JULIAN AND
LAKE CUYAMACA AND RANCHITA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
Hey guys just poping in and back out

I see nothing much has changed with Grace

I am sticking to what I said last night with Grace

92L not expecting too much from this it may become a Sub tropical depression or a very weak STS or weak TD

The GOM system I think will be a big problem later

Anyway poping back out see y'all later tonight
Well, we get our cool front back? And rain according to Lake Charles

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
444 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST...TODAY. RADAR
IS INDICATING A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND AROUND RAPIDES PARISH. STORMS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE
WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A
BIT OF FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE. A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH THE CONTINUING APPROACH
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY... PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS TOPPING OUT TOWARDS MID TO UPPER 80S. RAINS TO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE BACKING OFF ON SUNDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH MORNING LOWS SUNDAY IN THE 60S.

A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OFF OF
BRO WITH A COASTAL TROF EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND INTO
EAST TEXAS WITH MORE RAINS TO FOLLOW FOR SE TX AND SRN LA ON
TUESDAY.
I know this isn't about tropical weather but there is a huge sandstorm in Syria of all places right now. Lebanon, Cyprus and Israel are also affected:



MODIS is showing this in detail and more up to date.
Does anyone know off hand (I'm too lazy to do the leg work) the last home grown GOM hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.? I'm talking about a system that formed (home grown) in the GOM.
I think I've identified a serious deficiency at the NHC. It doesn't have a cat. It needs a cat up in the corner of each update. If a few of our more unreliable models say there's a going to be a hurricane, the cat can kind of glance in that direction. If one not too terrible model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to breathe just slightly faster. If a good model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to pant. If there are two good models, the cat should hyperventilate. Then, if a low actually forms anywhere near where the hurricane is supposed to form, they can put the yellow X on it with cat on top of the X, having its head spin like the kid in "The Exorcist".

I think that should satisfy most people on the blog....
Raining good with some pea sized hail included
Quoting 194. sar2401:

I think I've identified a serious deficiency at the NHC. It doesn't have a cat. It needs a cat up in the corner of each update. If a few of our more unreliable models say there's a going to be a hurricane, the cat can kind of glance in that direction. If one not too terrible model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to breathe just slightly faster. If a good model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to pant. If there are two good models, the cat should hyperventilate. Then, if a low actually forms anywhere near where the hurricane is supposed to form, they can put the yellow X on it with cat on top of the X, having its head spin like the kid in "The Exorcist".

I think that should satisfy most people on the blog...


That would satisfy most people on the Internet...
TOTAL DELUGE! Hail has stopped ........Nice ........Nice..........Nice!
I loves me some monsoon flow into Soo Cal

Quoting 193. Sfloridacat5:

Does anyone know off hand (I'm too lazy to do the leg work) the last home grown GOM hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.? I'm talking about a system that formed (home grown) in the GOM.
I think that would be 2007 Humberto.
Quoting 188. FunnelVortex:



I don't think it would really matter in a Cat 3-5, would it?
They do have hurricane resistant windows, but they are more complicated than you think, also be aware of scams, and it needs to be Florida product approved and pass the inspection. None of this really matters though, if your roof gets blown off, since that will weaken the foundation and then everything will be ruin. I'm more interested in safer roofing, if risk mitigation companies can come up with a solution in which your roof won't become undone during a major hurricane, that would be great, then there becomes the issue of how to protect against storm surge flooding.

Check out this video: Link
206. Mikla
Quoting 188. FunnelVortex:



I don't think it would really matter in a Cat 3-5, would it? How effective are those windows?

Window test link.
They can take quite a beating.
Quoting 200. sar2401:

I think that would be 2007 Humberto.


If that's the case, it's been a while.
Quoting 193. Sfloridacat5:

Does anyone know off hand (I'm too lazy to do the leg work) the last home grown GOM hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.? I'm talking about a system that formed (home gown) in the GOM.


Alicia, 1983 is my guess. Formed south of LA. Last retired storm to hit anyway. Maybe Dolly?

Quoting 192. ChrisHamburg:

I know this isn't about tropical weather but there is a huge sandstorm in Syria of all places right now. Lebanon, Cyprus and Israel are also affected:



MODIS is showing this in detail.


It's all good, no discriminating 'round these parts ;-)
ECMWF pointing the Gulf, too soon but plenty of heat energy there.
TXNT28 KNES 081805
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 08/1745Z

C. 30.9N

D. 61.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSE CLOUD
LINES, PROXIMITY LESS THAN 1.25 DG FROM OVERCAST. SMALL SIZE. PT=1.0.
MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
e-TRaP

Awaiting Forecast and/or Microwave Imagery(K)

MTCSWA

MTCSWA Image
cat picture is cute but its got to go
not because its bad but that type of image
may be dizzying for some
maybe even freak em out
sorry funnel
Quoting 209. win1gamegiantsplease:



Alicia, 1983 is my guess. Formed south of LA. Last retired storm to hit anyway. Maybe Dolly?



It's all good, no discriminating 'round these parts ;-)

Looks to be a northeast wind. I wonder what the synoptic dynamics are that cause this? A backdoor "cold" front? The scale is too large to be associated with a MCC, which in any case is not apparent in the photo.
Bob Vila has some good videos on Home Improvement.

Link

Reporting stations in the vicinity indicate a moderate Gulf (of California) surge underway, propelled by the combined fetch of Linda and high pressure to the east. Dewpoints up in the 60s and 70s across the lower desert.
Is the GFS running?
92 L sheared to the right with centre to the left nw ward

Rainy Days are coming.
Quoting 217. washingtonian115:

Is the GFS running?
Yes it is. Here is the 168 hr frame.
07/TD/G/XX


convective area seems displaced slightly from the centre as well to the se

nice little blow up at the present anyway
Quoting 188. FunnelVortex:



I don't think it would really matter in a Cat 3-5, would it? How effective are those windows?
They'd be OK as long as the walls remained standing. Those windows are really strong...
223. MahFL
Quoting 160. Sfloridacat5:



No boarding up the windows before a system has even formed? Reminds me of that commercial where the girl gives her retirement notice to her boss and she's not retiring for 15 years.


That's a funny commercial.
224. JLPR2
Convection is trying to stay with the system.

Quoting 202. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



bad for the bad guys may the desert sand burn there eyes and cut their skin take there breath

and that's being nice


The bad guys love this stuff, no air strikes in this mess, saw a picture of a stormed air base today from the Nusra Front.

Here a site with lots of pictures about this sandstorm, also from Amman, Jordan or Beirut, Lebanon:



i am saying invest 92L 50% and 50% at 8pm
Quoting 214. BayFog:


Looks to be a northeast wind. I wonder what the synoptic dynamics are that cause this? A backdoor "cold" front? The scale is too large to be associated with a MCC, which in any case is not apparent in the photo.


There's a low spinning off the eastern Mediterranean, that wouldn't explain northeast winds depending on when that was shot
Nice storm.......still raining......not as heavy....had pea sized hail when it started and a 15 minute total deluge.....some rumbling in the area....didn't see any lightning and raining moderately now.....all in all....a good storm.......been over a month since the last rains.

Hopefully Hurricane Linda can send some moisture our way as it unwinds. Linda is at bottom left.

229. MahFL
Some nice outflow now on the south side of Grace :

Quoting 221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

07/TD/G/XX


convective area seems displaced slightly from the centre as well to the se

nice little blow up at the present anyway


It's uh trying!
Quoting 194. sar2401:

I think I've identified a serious deficiency at the NHC. It doesn't have a cat. It needs a cat up in the corner of each update. If a few of our more unreliable models say there's a going to be a hurricane, the cat can kind of glance in that direction. If one not too terrible model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to breathe just slightly faster. If a good model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to pant. If there are two good models, the cat should hyperventilate. Then, if a low actually forms anywhere near where the hurricane is supposed to form, they can put the yellow X on it with cat on top of the X, having its head spin like the kid in "The Exorcist".

I think that should satisfy most people on the blog....
I LIKE it!
Quoting 226. hurricanes2018:



i am saying invest 92L 50% and 50% at 8pm
An after that,bye bye fish.
Quoting 229. MahFL:

Some nice outflow now on the south side of Grace :




Those convective bursts in the outflow cover probably an area the size of 12 football fields, so not that big.
Quoting 224. JLPR2:

Convection is trying to stay with the system.


It certainly is trying to hang in there, conditions aren't exactly hostile for Erika, wind sheer is moderate, SAL is low, warm water water temps, its worth keeping an eye one!
A few of the storms that fired up this pm hit 70dbz, the one hitting my place topped out at 60dbz. A nice good soaking.......thank you Lord.
Quoting 228. HurricaneHunterJoe:

. Linda is at bottom left.

<


Quoting 233. ElConando:



Those convective bursts in the outflow cover probably an area the size of 12 football fields, so not that big.


So 76 square kilometers?
Quoting 234. KyloRen:

It certainly is trying to hang in there, conditions aren't exactly hostile for Erika, wind sheer is moderate, SAL is low, warm water water temps, its worth keeping an eye one!
u mean grace E storm is long gone
Quoting 144. thunderblogger:



Yeah he has it all figured out already, it's going to Florida.
I dont know about Florida, but your avatar rules..
Quoting 234. KyloRen:

It certainly is trying to hang in there, conditions aren't exactly hostile for Erika, wind sheer is moderate, SAL is low, warm water water temps, its worth keeping an eye one!


You meant Grace...conditions are more or less, the way they were when Erika and Danny went through the same area... but I think she has a pretty strong core...
Quoting 232. prcane4you:

An after that,bye bye fish.


Could hit the Maritimes and affect Keeper and the Trailer Park Boys, but we also gotta remember these storms fuel the weather that Brits and the Dutch complain about on a day to day basis ;)
Quoting 238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u mean grace E storm is long gone

He meant the next one.
Quoting 232. prcane4you:

An after that,bye bye fish.
Why a fish? Isn't that system a thread to Newfoundland ?
Friday and Saturday look like a wet mess here...but of course the day I'll be inside watching tv the entire time b-e-a-utiful.

Quoting 239. hydrus:

I dont know about Florida, but your avatar rules..


Had to go back and see what it was. I approve.
The GFS still is showing a gulf storm just not a strong one so this is very important that we watch the GOM next week
Quoting 244. win1gamegiantsplease:

Friday and Saturday look like a wet mess here...but of course the day I'll be inside watching tv the entire time b-e-a-utiful.



Had to go back and see what it was. I approve.
remember we are gentlemen and that's a lady
Living in South Florida , my main concern is always storms brewing near the Yucatan. #Wilma !
Quoting 246. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

remember we are gentlemen and that's a lady


That came off low-brow, my apologies.
Quoting 234. KyloRen:

It certainly is trying to hang in there, conditions aren't exactly hostile for Erika, wind sheer is moderate, SAL is low, warm water water temps, its worth keeping an eye one!
Grace
Quoting 229. MahFL:

Some nice outflow now on the south side of Grace :


lol


MAYBE HIT LAND INVEST 92L
Quoting 194. sar2401:

I think I've identified a serious deficiency at the NHC. It doesn't have a cat. It needs a cat up in the corner of each update. If a few of our more unreliable models say there's a going to be a hurricane, the cat can kind of glance in that direction. If one not too terrible model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to breathe just slightly faster. If a good model says there's going to be a hurricane, the cat can start to pant. If there are two good models, the cat should hyperventilate. Then, if a low actually forms anywhere near where the hurricane is supposed to form, they can put the yellow X on it with cat on top of the X, having its head spin like the kid in "The Exorcist".

I think that should satisfy most people on the blog....
If some are not happy with the NHC, there are other forecasts centers. Some here are really negative toward the NHC. What a shame considering all the lives they have saved, and they do not get paid that much money in my book.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
Note in subsequent ECMWF op runs, the model keeps delaying GOM genesis further in time. Little ECMWF EPS support.
Hurricane LINDA
3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2015
Location: 21.9°N 114.8°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
Quoting 253. hydrus:

If some are not happy with the NHC, there are other forecasts centers. Some here are really negative toward the NHC. What a shame considering all the lives they have saved, and they do not get paid that much money in my book.
They still need a cat. Everyone likes someone with a cat. :-)
Quoting 253. hydrus:

If some are not happy with the NHC, there are other forecasts centers. Some here are really negative toward the NHC. What a shame considering all the lives they have saved, and they do not get paid that much money in my book.

As a owner of 2 cats and a cat lover I'm offended in using any animal in a way to depict amusement and laughter , tells me a lot about a person character! just my personal opinion and yes the NHC overall does a great job, are they perfect, no, but who/or which institution really is?!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on major
Hurricane Linda, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week. Environmental
conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

starting to ventilate,Grace has found a sweet spot
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure centered
about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has become better
defined, and that the associated shower activity has become more
concentrated. Upper-level winds have also become more conducive for
development, and there is some potential for a subtropical or
tropical cyclone to form during the next couple of days. The low is
expected to remain nearly stationary tonight, and then move
northward at 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or
Saturday, the system should be absorbed by a large extratropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


WOW INVEST 92L jump to 60%
Quoting 262. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure centered
about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has become better
defined, and that the associated shower activity has become more
concentrated. Upper-level winds have also become more conducive for
development, and there is some potential for a subtropical or
tropical cyclone to form during the next couple of days. The low is
expected to remain nearly stationary tonight, and then move
northward at 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or
Saturday, the system should be absorbed by a large extratropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


WOW INVEST 92L jump to 60%


0/40 in the EPAC. Next name on the list is Marty. 18z GFS shows yet another major hurricane.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week. Environmental
conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Invest 92L

Invest 92L
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

Last Updated Sep 8, 2015 18 GMT
Location 31.0 61.9W Movement SSE
Wind 30 MPH Pressure: --
Quoting 253. hydrus:

If some are not happy with the NHC, there are other forecasts centers. Some here are really negative toward the NHC. What a shame considering all the lives they have saved, and they do not get paid that much money in my book.
Lighten up hydrus, I'm sure SAR was just being sarcastic, and we need to enjoy a laugh every now and again, too much seriousness becomes dull and boring after a while. It's also okay to be critical as there is always room for improvement, shoot I tell myself that everyday. I do agree Government agencies in general do not get paid enough for the amount of work they do and yet they still worked when the Government was shut down. A big pat in the back for those guys.

Link
Get ready for fall weather! [Link]

Gotta get some phy hw done, or try to at least. Bye.

Quoting 257. sar2401:

They still need a cat. Everyone likes someone with a cat. :-)


Dogs > cats

Popping off all over the place....
Quoting 238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u mean grace E storm is long gone

lol your right
Quoting 250. Gearsts:

Grace
thanks! lol im getting old
Quoting 257. sar2401:

They still need a cat. Everyone likes someone with a cat. :-)


Unless the cat has a number after it, I'm not interested. :D
The big picture...

Runaway depression, never goin' back
Wrong way on a shear-filled track
Seems like I should be gettin' somewhere
Somehow Barbados's neither here nor there
Quoting 267. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Lighten up hydrus, I'm sure SAR was just being sarcastic, and we need to enjoy a laugh every now and again, too much seriousness becomes dull and boring after a while. It's also okay to be critical as there is always room for improvement, shoot I tell myself that everyday. I do agree Government agencies in general do not get paid enough for the amount of work they do and yet they still worked when the Government was shut down. A big pat in the back for those guys.

Link
Good evening Caleb...I do not have to lighten up . That remark was not directed at Sar to begin with. A few on this blog go out of there way to insult the NHC. I believe Sar was indicating the dissatisfaction some here have with the NHC, and the cat would somehow help the issue.
Quoting 257. sar2401:

They still need a cat. Everyone likes someone with a cat. :-)


I fully support this idea. It may be the single greatest contribution to society that has come from this blog.
Quoting 231. PensacolaDoug:

I LIKE it!


Sounds good to me!
Grace is now a tropical wave. According to the latest RapidSCAT The system is open on the western side. now eyes are now on the next cyclone Henri.
Quoting 258. stormpetrol:


As a owner of 2 cats and a cat lover I'm offended in using any animal in a way to depict amusement and laughter , tells me a lot about a person character! just my personal opinion and yes the NHC overall does a great job, are they perfect, no, but who/or which institution really is?!


I guess I am a horrible person, because I actually paid money to watch series of funny cat videos at the Fargo theater last year, my favorite was Henri.

http://youtu.be/mXfMWMTLgtI


RapidScAT is also showing a low pressure area associated with the tropical wave se of CV islands
I think the potential GOM storm was dependent upon the tail end of a cold front dipping into the Gulf to stir things up. The latest Houston-Galveston met office is not so sure anymore that that front is going to make it.
Quoting 278. stoormfury:

Grace is now a tropical wave. According to the latest RapidSCAT The system is open on the western side. now eyes are now on the next cyclone Henri.

I don't think I'll take my eyes off her just yet.
It's been a strange season thus far.
She's surrounded by Bad Vibes, but there's plenty of moisture and energy southwest of where she is.
As a T-Wave, we'll need to see where she's heading now.
283. FOREX
Quoting 281. Fraidycat:

I think the potential GOM storm was dependent upon the tail end of a cold front dipping into the Gulf to stir things up. The latest Houston-Galveston met office is not so sure anymore that that front is going to make it.
Models more than 5 days out are unreliable.


Grace following the path of least resistance , following that wave to the WSW. Not so dry and less shear!
Quoting 275. hydrus:

Good evening Caleb...I do not have to lighten up . That remark was not directed at Sar to begin with. A few on this blog go out of there way to insult the NHC. I believe Sar was indication the dissatisfaction some here have with the NHC, and the cat would somehow help the issue.
Hey hydrus, I do understand your feelings, just forget about the few bloggers who insult the NHC, they probably have nothing better to do with their lives, so they just come on here for attention and stir the pot. You are great blogger and have been here a lot longer than me. No harm no foul, I just want everybody to enjoy the blog atmosphere without any worries, I myself got heated a couple weeks ago and took it personal and realized what I did and said was wrong, so I'm sorry to who I may have insulted which is a lot of you on this blog.
Convection waned a little on 92L.

Probably will have to see what it does after DMAX tonight

Quoting 273. GeoffreyWPB:

The big picture...


What a great picture.Wow,how many colors and clouds spinning everywhere.
Quoting 286. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey hydrus, I do understand your feelings, just forget about the few bloggers who insult the NHC, they probably have nothing better to do with their lives, so they just come on here for attention and stir the pot. You are great blogger and have been here a lot longer than me. No harm no foul, I just want everybody to enjoy the blog atmosphere without any worries, I myself got heated a couple weeks ago and took it personal and realized what I did and said was wrong, so I'm sorry to who I may have insulted which is a lot of you on this blog.
Those people work hard , and are under great stress when a dangerous storm is likely to hit land. I admit, I do get p.o. when people insult them.
Quoting 287. FunnelVortex:

Convection waned a little on 92L.

Probably will have to see what it does after DMAX tonight


I''ll be here the whole night watching the floater .
Quoting 276. Naga5000:



I fully support this idea. It may be the single greatest contribution to society that has come from this blog.
The NHC cat, that would be awesome! which reminds me didn't one of the forecasters at the NHC name one of the storms after his daughter?
Quoting 290. prcane4you:

I''ll be here the whole night watching the floater .
Shear really doing a job on her right now.
She'll need a good DMax to stay together.....
Quoting 291. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The NHC cat, that would be awesome! which reminds me didn't one of the forecasters at the NHC name one of the storms after his daughter?


Uh, yeah, sorta. John Hope added his daughter's name to the list which was in rotation for the 1969 season. I'll give you a hint...it's retired...
Camille
Quoting 293. win1gamegiantsplease:



Uh, yeah, sorta. John Hope added his daughter's name to the list which was in rotation for the 1969 season. I'll give you a hint...it's retired...


And it was a home-brewed Cat 5.

Just to show that devastating Cat 5s don't always have to be Cape Verde in origin.
Quoting 295. FunnelVortex:



And it was a home-brewed Cat 5.

Just to show that devastating Cat 5s don't always have to be Cape Verde in origin.


Well it basically was..
From Wikiapedia..
The origins of Hurricane Camille were from a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa on August 5.
Quoting 294. PedleyCA:

Camille


Yahtzee.
Quoting 296. JrWeathermanFL:



Well it basically was..
From Wikiapedia..
The origins of Hurricane Camille were from a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa on August 5.


Then what destructive majors were home-brewed?
Quoting 298. FunnelVortex:



Then what destructive majors were home-brewed?


Ethel really could have been had it have stayed a Cat 5 till landfall
Quoting 299. JrWeathermanFL:



Ethel really could have been had it have stayed a Cat 5 till landfall


What season was that?
Quoting 300. FunnelVortex:



What season was that?


1960.

There's been a handful of truly homegrown majors but I don't even know for sure if Ethel was one
Quoting 298. FunnelVortex:



Then what destructive majors were home-brewed?


Hurricane Alicia springs to mind immediately.
Category three Hurricane Alicia in 1983 was a home grown storm.
Also it should be of note that Camille is essentially the reason the Saffir-Simpson scale came into being.
Quoting 301. JrWeathermanFL:



1960.

There's been a handful of truly homegrown majors but I don't even know for sure if Ethel was one


Quoting 304. win1gamegiantsplease:

Also it should be of note that Camille is essentially the reason the Saffir-Simpson scale came into being.


Very true. And we should also be grateful that Saffir's name wasn't Homer.
Eye opened up nicely, right as Linda is about to cross the 27 C isotherm. Perhaps it briefly popped to a Cat 4.

Quoting 306. Grothar:



Very true. And we should also be grateful that Saffir's name wasn't Homer.

Dang, I laughed at that.
Quoting 305. Grothar:






Well that doesn't look like the Cape Verdes so guess it was :P
Come to think of it, was the Labor Day Hurricane homegrown?
311. txjac
Quoting 303. olnutt:

Category three Hurricane Alicia in 1983 was a home grown storm.


Alicia was my first hurricane ...totally clueless about hurricanes as I grew up in Ohio. Did absolutely no prep, remember being on the phone back with family back home and going outside so they could hear the roar of the wind ...young and clueless


Audrey killed hundreds of people!
Quoting 306. Grothar:



Very true. And we should also be grateful that Saffir's name wasn't Homer.


No one would take it seriously, though the scale came out in 1971 and the show in 1989...if a cartoon ruined it 18 years after the fact it was time for a change lol.

I could quote that show all day but for the blog's sake and sanity I'll let it go.
dang it
Interesting setup which might bring some of Linda's moisture into California. At the top of the screen is Ignacio's remnant carrying into British Coumbia on the northerly jet and a frontal boundary. Offshore a little midlevel low is spinning up between Jimena and Linda. Midlevel flow is southeasterly from Linda along the coast. Very toasty day even at the coast in California today, our typical hot September weather. Buoys are showing a swift recovery into the 60s along the central coast after a week of strong upwelling cooled things a tad.
Quoting 316. HurriHistory:



Alicia was a small storm, about the size of your typical Texas mesocyclone complex. Was anyone here in downtown Houston that day it blew out all the windows?
Quoting 310. JrWeathermanFL:

Come to think of it, was the Labor Day Hurricane homegrown?


Talking too much about past hurricanes is a sign that the blog is boooooooooooooooring.sorry zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.


50-years ago today Cat.-3 Hurricane Betsy slammed into KeyLargo with 125-MPH winds. Over 3-feet of water affected many sections of Miami, Key Biscayne and Miami Beach.
Quoting 313. win1gamegiantsplease:



No one would take it seriously, though the scale came out in 1971 and the show in 1989...if a cartoon ruined it 18 years after the fact it was time for a change lol.

I could quote that show all day but for the blog's sake and sanity I'll let it go.


What show?


South Florida had 2-hits in 1935. The Labor Day storm and the Yankee Hurricane of November 4th.
Quoting 319. Grothar:






I gotta stop doin that and just go to look myself. lol

Quoting 320. prcane4you:

Talking too much about past hurricanes is a sign that the blog is boooooooooooooooring.sorry zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.


I mean it's not like we have a named storm and an invest...


1985 was a very busy year.
Quoting 279. Qazulight:



I guess I am a horrible person, because I actually paid money to watch series of funny cat videos at the Fargo theater last year, my favorite was Henri.

http://youtu.be/mXfMWMTLgtI



me to i thought the cat was funny.
Quoting 317. BayFog: Linda's sphere of influence

If it weren't for Linda's moisture being siphoned off, CONUS would be as black & tan dry parched as everywhere else, with the cool front coming down.


2004, the crazy season!
Quoting 311. txjac:



Alicia was my first hurricane ...totally clueless about hurricanes as I grew up in Ohio. Did absolutely no prep, remember being on the phone back with family back home and going outside so they could hear the roar of the wind ...young and clueless


Reminds me of Humberto. My niece from Ohio was staying with us when that hit. We were all gathered in one room, away from the trees. She called her parents back in Ohio, freaking out, hollering, I'm In A Hurricane right now! They basically said, that's nice dear. Lol. It was 2 o'clock in the morning though. :)
Quoting 321. HurriHistory:



50-years ago today Cat.-3 Hurricane Betsy slammed into KeyLargo with 125-MPH winds. Over 3-feet of water affected many sections of Miami, Key Biscayne and Miami Beach.
I think that when Christopher Columbus discovered Puerto Rico a hurricane makes landfall here.The Tainos indians here vanished.
Quoting 323. HurriHistory:



South Florida had 2-hits in 1935. The Labor Day storm and the Yankee Hurricane of November 4th.
The Yankee Hurricane make landsfall in Boston?
Quoting 331. prcane4you:

The Yankee Hurricane make landsfall in Boston?

No it just moved from north to south which was unusual so locals called it a yankee storm
Quoting 322. Grothar:



What show?


The Simpsons
Quoting 333. win1gamegiantsplease:



The Simpsons


I can't believe you answered that. :)
335. 882MB
Tropical Depression GRACE

11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8
Location: 14.6°N 45.8°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting 330. prcane4you:

I think that when Christopher Columbus discovered Puerto Rico a hurricane makes landfall here.The Tainos indians here vanished.
1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, also known as the 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record. The third tropical cyclone and first major hurricane of the season, this storm was first observed southwest of Cape Verde on August 3. It slowly strengthened while heading steadily west-northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean and reached hurricane status by late on August 5. During the following 48 hours, it deepened further, reaching Category 4 on the modern day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) before crossing the Leeward Islands on August 7. Later that day, the storm peaked winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). The storm weakened slightly before making landfall in Guayama, Puerto Rico with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) on August 8. Several hours later, it emerged into the southwestern Atlantic as a Category 3 hurricane. The system paralleled the north coast of Dominican Republic and then crossed the Bahamas, striking several islands. Thereafter, it began heading northward on August 14, while centered east of Florida. Early on the following day, the storm re-curved northeastward and appeared to be heading out to sea. However, by August 17, it turned back to the northwest and made landfall near Hatteras, North Carolina early on the following day. No stronger hurricane has made landfall on the Outer Banks since Sir Ciriaco.

img src="">





Records:

Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was hit by the Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

Also, with an Accumulated cyclone energy of 73.57, it has the highest ACE of any Atlantic hurricane in history. In 2004, Hurricane Ivan became the second Atlantic hurricane to surpass an ACE value of 70, but did not surpass the San Ciriaco hurricane.

San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, lasting for 28 days (31 including subtropical time).




Rasmus Midgett sits of the wreckage of the Priscilla, which was situated about halfway between Salvo and Avon

Good night boys and girls. tonight there were some interesting images of storms past. I'm getting the "eye" so I'll see you tomorrow. Keep and eye on Grace. Looks wicked tonight. :)

Watch for a flareup in the NW quadrant.



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook to update the discussion of the
low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 1050 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Updated: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure
area centered about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
developed a well-defined circulation with winds to near gale force
northeast of the center. If any further increase in organization
occurs, advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be
initiated Wednesday morning. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary for the remainder of tonight, and then move northward at
5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or Saturday, the
system should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Hey guys just poping in and back out

New advisory has not changed much at all

Forecast cone has shifted W a good bit also weakening to rem. low and dissipation has shifted down the time line I've been noticing over past couple of advisories NHC seems to be extending Grace life on the last few advisories

To this I'm not surprised at all

Anyway in terms of what I think about Grace forecast I remain the same as what I said this last night

Bermuda system no change in my present thinking as before

Keep an eye on the GOM system this will likely to be the biggest U.S. Threat over the next 5-10 days
Quoting 338. Tazmanian:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook to update the discussion of the
low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 1050 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Updated: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure
area centered about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
developed a well-defined circulation with winds to near gale force
northeast of the center. If any further increase in organization
occurs, advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be
initiated Wednesday morning. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary for the remainder of tonight, and then move northward at
5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or Saturday, the
system should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


We are about to get Henri, that is 8

The date of the 8th named storm in an average season is September 24th and we would be over 2 weeks ahead of climatology
Quoting 340. Hurricanes101:



We are about to get Henri, that is 8

The date of the 8th named storm in an average season is September 24th and we would be over 2 weeks ahead of climatology


Yep and also more than a month ahead of last year

Last year we had TS Hanna in the BOC and W Caribbean from Oct 22 to Oct 28 2014
Quoting 341. TropicalAnalystwx13:


4-1, the last goal was a crack shot scored by Williams. I am worried about that Mexico game on the 10th. We need to get it together. The defensive back line was horrendous and there was just too many turnovers. Do you know if Howard will be playing in that game? I saw Jones is back from his injury.
Quoting 298. FunnelVortex:



Then what destructive majors were home-brewed?


Audry 1957

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Audrey
Quoting 343. GTstormChaserCaleb:

4-1, the last goal was a crack shot scored by Williams. I am worried about that Mexico game on the 10th. We need to get it together. The defensive back line was horrendous and there was just too many turnovers. Do you know if Howard will be playing in that game? I saw Jones is back from his injury.

Klinsmann has said Guzan is our number one goalkeeper, so he'll start versus Mexico.

We were outclassed in every aspect tonight. Awful game part of an awful summer. Our win vs. Germany seems so distant now.
Quoting 340. Hurricanes101:



We are about to get Henri, that is 8

The date of the 8th named storm in an average season is September 24th and we would be over 2 weeks ahead of climatology


And people insist this season is a crapshoot...

It is actually pretty impressive for an El Ninio year
Quoting 346. FunnelVortex:



And people insist this season is a crapshoot...

It is actually pretty impressive for an El Ninio year


yup very impressive
Quoting 340. Hurricanes101:



We are about to get Henri, that is 8

The date of the 8th named storm in an average season is September 24th and we would be over 2 weeks ahead of climatology
Quoting 342. wunderkidcayman:



Yep and also more than a month ahead of last year

Last year we had TS Hanna in the BOC and W Caribbean from Oct 22 to Oct 28 2014


Any more storms for the rest of the season after Henri we beat last years total number of named storms
Now to beat last years total of hurricanes we have to get 3 more hurricanes and to beat last years major hurricanes we only just have to get two more I think
Quoting 347. Hurricanes101:



yup very impressive


Yep. And considering the strength of the current El Ninio, the season should have been D.O.A.

But the systems this year are fighters, regardless.

I think it is part of what makes this season interesting.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 090247
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook to update the discussion of the
low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 1050 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

Updated: Recent satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure
area centered about 225 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has
developed a well-defined circulation with winds to near gale force
northeast of the center. If any further increase in organization
occurs, advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be
initiated Wednesday morning. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary for the remainder of tonight, and then move northward at
5 to 10 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday or Saturday, the
system should be absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
352. THL3
Quoting 318. BayFog:


Alicia was a small storm, about the size of your typical Texas mesocyclone complex. Was anyone here in downtown Houston that day it blew out all the windows?

Yes, I was working in construction back then. We worked around 70 days straight before some time off.
Off to bed I go. Should be an interesting week in the tropics. Looks like that northwest storm that Ignacio's energy is a part of could generate snow in the Rockies...September is the transition month after all.

Quoting 345. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Klinsmann has said Guzan is our number one goalkeeper, so he'll start versus Mexico.

We were outclassed in every aspect tonight. Awful game part of an awful summer. Our win vs. Germany seems so distant now.


Guzan, you mean this guy? [Link] First goal in the video.

Quoting 334. Grothar:



I can't believe you answered that. :)


Ya got me.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6h6 hours ago
Looking at ECMWF seasonal forecast SST -- of course #ElNino but thru March 2016, most of North Atlantic as much as 2°C below normal
@GTStormCHaserCaleb I was thinking about doing a blog for the 115th anniversary of San Ciriaco since I've read a bit about it (and mentioned it several times as the longest lived Atlantic system and the strongest hurricane to hit the Outer Banks to this date) but missed the anniversary. Went ahead with Hazel's 60th anniversary a couple months later.

OK, good night for real this time ;-)
GFS model is running...
357. SLU
Quoting 354. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6h6 hours ago
Looking at ECMWF seasonal forecast SST -- of course #ElNino but thru March 2016, most of North Atlantic as much as 2°C below normal



Holy crap!
Quoting 357. SLU:



Holy crap!
below normal



nice 3d ocean currents undersea surface video
Quoting 356. FunnelVortex:

GFS model is running...
Then you better go and catch it! ;)
Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 2m2 minutes ago

#92L is now Tropical Depression #Eight with winds of 35 mph, and a minimum pressure of 1011 mb
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the low pressure area
east-southeast of Bermuda has developed a well-defined circulation
with winds of at least 30 kt in the northeastern quadrant. In
addition, a strong cluster of convection has been persisting in the
eastern quadrant. Based on these developments, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. It should be noted
that the system has a large radius of maximum winds more
characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. However, data from the
FSU phase space analysis and the strong convection suggest the
system is more tropical than subtropical.

The cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion
should begin on Wednesday as a deep layer trough moves into the
eastern United States and weakens the subtropical ridge. The
cyclone is expected to enter the westerlies and turn toward the
northeast after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until
dissipation. The forecast track lies in the center of the track
guidance envelope in good agreement with the various consensus
models.

An upper-level trough just west of the cyclone is currently
providing upper-level difluence, and this is likely enhancing the
convection. The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to become
embedded in about 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear on the
east side of the trough. While there is dry air entraining into
the cyclone, the environment should allow for some slow
strengthening through 72 hours while the system remains over warm
water. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for strengthening in best
agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72
hours, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and
lose its identity by 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0430Z 30.8N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 30.8N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 31.6N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 33.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 36.0N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 43.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 48.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 336. GTstormChaserCaleb:

1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, also known as the 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record. The third tropical cyclone and first major hurricane of the season, this storm was first observed southwest of Cape Verde on August 3. It slowly strengthened while heading steadily west-northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean and reached hurricane status by late on August 5. During the following 48 hours, it deepened further, reaching Category 4 on the modern day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) before crossing the Leeward Islands on August 7. Later that day, the storm peaked winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). The storm weakened slightly before making landfall in Guayama, Puerto Rico with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) on August 8. Several hours later, it emerged into the southwestern Atlantic as a Category 3 hurricane. The system paralleled the north coast of Dominican Republic and then crossed the Bahamas, striking several islands. Thereafter, it began heading northward on August 14, while centered east of Florida. Early on the following day, the storm re-curved northeastward and appeared to be heading out to sea. However, by August 17, it turned back to the northwest and made landfall near Hatteras, North Carolina early on the following day. No stronger hurricane has made landfall on the Outer Banks since Sir Ciriaco.

img src="">





Records:

Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was hit by the Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

Also, with an Accumulated cyclone energy of 73.57, it has the highest ACE of any Atlantic hurricane in history. In 2004, Hurricane Ivan became the second Atlantic hurricane to surpass an ACE value of 70, but did not surpass the San Ciriaco hurricane.

San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, lasting for 28 days (31 including subtropical time).




Rasmus Midgett sits of the wreckage of the Priscilla, which was situated about halfway between Salvo and Avon



Unforgetable San Ciriaco a year after the Hispanic American War, and the invasion of the USA troops to the island. My grandmother was 10 YEARS OLD. She witnessed the storm and told me everything she experienced, quite an amazing storm...destroyed Puerto Rico.....causing a human catastrophe..
Darn, just after releasing my 82nd update on the season they upgrade 92L to TD8. Well, I guess I'll be issuing a special update on my blog to account for the fact that 92L is now TD8.

But my 82nd update also features the absolute latest in regards to Grace and the potential for western Gulf development for next week.
Portlight and Red Cross: Working Together for Accessible Disaster Services
By: Portlight , 10:53 AM CDT on September 08, 2015


Nearly 2 years ago, Portlight signed a Letter of Agreement with the American Red Cross, with the intention of improving disaster services for people with disabilities. Both agreed to work together to make Red Cross shelters more accessible, and to ensure fully inclusive disaster planning.



In the time since our important partnership began, Portlight has advised Red Cross on a number of initiatives, including the development of a Red Cross-branded shelter site survey tool, and their current home fire prevention campaign. Red Cross representatives have been present at every one of our Getting It Right conferences and workshops, and this past July, they attended the annual conference of our mutual partner, the National Council on Independent Living (NCIL). As part of the summer's celebrations of the 25th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act, they joined Portlight and NCIL representatives in a historic march on the Capitol.

Representatives of Portlight Strategies participate in a disability rights march in Washington, DC.The 25th Anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act.



In the coming weeks, as part of National Preparedness Month, and commemorating the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, we'll be rolling out our Inclusion Ambassador Initiative. We're excited about this new endeavor, designed to encourage people with disabilities to volunteer with their local Red Cross chapter, and to organize their communities through emergency preparedness events and exercises.

Inclusion Ambassadors will train to be part of our new Virtual Operations Support Team, which will assist emergency management agencies in times of disaster, providing social media monitoring for identifying emergent situations, and for crowdmapping and crowdsourcing. The VOS Team will be an important component of ensuring the safety and survival of people with disabilities, when disaster strikes.

Stay tuned there's more to come!
Henri by September 9th? That would be storm #8 before the peak day. 8 [more] storms after the peak and I get one of my forecast numbers.
Quoting 368. BaltimoreBrian:

Henri by tomorrow? That would be storm #8 before the peak day. 8 storms after the peak and I get one of my forecast numbers.

In my view should be Henri by this afternoon, and the NHC intensity forecast also shows that. Looks like you'll get your forecast number correct...
Quoting 368. BaltimoreBrian:

Henri by tomorrow? That would be storm #8 before the peak day. 8 storms after the peak and I get one of my forecast numbers.
Once Henri forms, my Super Deluxe Hurricane Season Forecast will be exactly right. All we have to do is not have any more storms form until November 30. I'm looking forward to a Major Award to honor my prescience.
92L is now TD 8 and soon to be TS Henri
Getting to 16 storms may be pushing it but I always set high goals :)
Hi folks with a short morning post as I don't have much time these days: It may be interesting to have an eye on the Mediterranean Sea, in case a medicane (tropical storm in the Mediterranean) tries to form. WU-member Zivipotty already had a post about it some days ago. Although I think chances recently diminished a bit due to strong land interaction in Sicily and southern Italy, they nevertheless will see a lot of rain in the next days. And still a lot of refugees out there on the sea.

I'm not sure whether you've noticed it yet but on NOAA's overview site "Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters" they've added the categories "Mediterranean Sea" and "South Atlantic" (at least I think it's new; I haven't noticed it in the years before). Undoubtedly because of our rant in here (Pablo for his South Atlantic, and me for the Med) that our tropical storms need more attention, lol. I'm excited to see the first floater on a Mediterranean Storm at some time this year!

Have a nice morning, everybody!


24h accumulated precipitation. Source.


Airmass this morning.


Current loop (updating).
Bloom by,,Tobago?
Morning all.

It's amazing to see that Jimena is still around...

...JIMENA NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
5:00 PM HST Tue Sep 8
Location: 26.0°N 153.9°W
Moving: WSW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 374. barbamz:

Hi folks with a short morning post as I don't have much time these days: It may be interesting to have an eye on the Mediterranean Sea, in case a medicane (tropical storm in the Mediterranean) tries to form. WU-member Zivipotty already had a post about it some days ago. Although I think chances recently diminished a bit due to strong land interaction in Sicily and southern Italy, they nevertheless will see a lot of rain in the next days. And still a lot of refugees out there on the sea.

I'm not sure whether you've noticed it yet but on NOAA's overview site "Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters" they've added the categories "Mediterranean Sea" and "South Atlantic" (at least I think it's new; I haven't noticed it in the years before). Undoubtedly because of our rant in here (Pablo for his South Atlantic, and me for the Med) that our tropical storms need more attention, lol. I'm excited to see the first floater on a Mediterranean Storm at some time this year!

Have a nice morning, everybody!


24h accumulated precipitation. Source.


Airmass this morning.


Current loop (updating).


Wow, that is HUGE news barbamz, thank you much !

Tropical Floaters



heavy rain in the northeast!!!
Quoting 375. Starhopper:

Bloom by,,Tobago?

Be good if they get some rain from that. Also seems Grace remnants are on course to moisten the leewards...
whats the weekend look like for lockin music festival in virginia? a couple friends & lots of acquaintances are going to be there.
dark red color with the tw near the s. leewards. thats heavy downpours. i would not be surprised if it makes a run at td status
Quoting 387. islander101010:

dark red color with the tw near the s. leewards. thats heavy downpours. i would not be surprised if it makes a run at td status
Cutting it fine if it's not going to hit SA first... Think they could use the rain, though....
389. MahFL
Quoting 317. BayFog:

Interesting setup which might bring some of Linda's moisture into California.


S Cal already has Flash Flood watches posted due to Linda.
grace following forecast. chance she may never make the eastern carib.
Quoting 389. MahFL:



S Cal already has Flash Flood watches posted due to Linda.
I must be dreaming. Did I just hear flash flood watches for California
392. MahFL
Quoting 391. HurricaneAndre:

I must be dreaming. Did I just hear flash flood watches for California


"FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
815 PM PDT TUE SEP 8 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER AND UPPER
DESERTS...AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS...
DESERTS...AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS."
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Grace, located about 900 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles, and on Tropical Depression Eight, located a couple of
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.


Over 2 inches of rain has already fallen in the DFW area this morning.
Quoting 394. tampabaymatt:
Over 2 inches of rain has already fallen in the DFW area this morning.


Good Morning all..
That trailing edge of the Low in the Midwest could be trouble if it enters the GOM,stalls, and then lifts out to the north near La./Texas area IMO..
5 to 7 days out..
Seen it happen time and again..
Energy in the GOM,this time of year,with conditions as they are:SST's ,Southern Jet Stream in place ect..
JMO like I said..
Thought's?

Quoting 391. HurricaneAndre:

I must be dreaming. Did I just hear flash flood watches for California



nothing new they get flash flood watches year round in S CA so please dont act like you never seen that be for or here that be for
So it appears models have come into better agreement against a tropical entity in the GoM in about 7-8 days. Looks to be a rain maker though
Quoting 394. tampabaymatt:



Over 2 inches of rain has already fallen in the DFW area this morning.


A series a strong cold fronts are on tap across most the Central & Eastern US the rest of this week ushering in Fall to many locations except of coarse here in C & S FL.
399. FOREX
Quoting 395. pcola57:



Good Morning all..
That trailing edge of the Low in the Midwest could be trouble if it enters the GOM,stalls, and then lifts out to the north near La./Texas area IMO..
Seen it happen time and again..
Energy in the GOM,this time of year,with conditions as they are:SST's ,Southern Jet Stream in place ect..
JMO like I said..
Thought's?


Please see post 397.
Quoting 397. DavidHOUTX:

So it appears models have come into better agreement against a tropical entity in the GoM in about 7-8 days. Looks to be a rain maker though


Euro ensembles are showing significant amounts of rain from coastal Texas to most of FL the next 2 weeks. I think if anything does form it will be slow to do so as the southern jet is expected to increase come mid to late next week. It could very well be we are starting to see El-Nino's effects across the Gulf Coast regions.

Here is the October precip forecast off the CFSv2.

Quoting 364. HuracanTaino:


Unforgetable San Ciriaco a year after the Hispanic American War, and the invasion of the USA troops to the island. My grandmother was 10 YEARS OLD. She witnessed the storm and told me everything she experienced, quite an amazing storm...destroyed Puerto Rico.....causing a human catastrophe..
Thank You for all this really great information about hurricanes in Puerto Rico.
Quoting 399. FOREX:

Please see post 397.

Ty..
I will still stick to my weather sense on this one..
Happened here in P'cola when we set an all time rainfall record for this area 2 yrs. ago..
I think a GOM homegrown T/C is yet to come this season..
Like I also said..
It's a "me" observation and gut feel from my experience along the GOM..
Lots of potential in the GOM ATM and going forward in a weeks time..
Quoting 375. Starhopper:

Bloom by,,Tobago?

This surface chart is a little bit old, but you can see that Bloom by Tobago is associated with a tropical wave, it may need to be watched in a couple of days as it moves through the Caribbean for any signs of development, especially once it gets towards the Western Caribbean and perhaps this is the system the Euro develops in the BOC in about 4-5 days.

This sure as heck looks a lot like June 1998. We had a very wet Winter 1997/1998 then come late Spring the rain stopped and the wildfires began popping up all over the place. 2 very similar El-Nino's 1997 & 2015 so this dry June forecast across FL is concerning.

Quoting 371. wunderkidcayman:

92L is now TD 8 and soon to be TS Henri
Mayor DiBlasio ordered evacuation of Long Island.
CMC still has something coming in east coast florida and crossing to the gulf next week....
ex erica will not get the glory but td 8 owes something to her
nothing new they get flash flood watches year round in S CA so please dont act like you never seen that be for or here that be for


taz.....you are right...but you have to understand...most people don't understand that a half an inch of rain in a few hours in many parts of the southwest can lead to flash flooding
bye GRACE

AL, 07, 2015090912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 482W, 25, 1008, DB
Quoting 395. pcola57:



Good Morning all..
That trailing edge of the Low in the Midwest could be trouble if it enters the GOM,stalls, and then lifts out to the north near La./Texas area IMO..
5 to 7 days out..
Seen it happen time and again..
Energy in the GOM,this time of year,with conditions as they are:SST's ,Southern Jet Stream in place ect..
JMO like I said..
Thought's?


The situation for that to happen, while not impossible, is far from ideal. The front coming here on Friday/Saturday still has to make it out into the Gulf, and that keeps changing from run to run. The deep layer moisture in the Gulf is high for the date, but the front will be bring some very dry air with it. That should push the moisture further south and stabilize things along the coast. The temperatures with the airmass behind the front, while not record cold, will still be unseasonably cold for the South. We usually see these tail end lows form on a relatively weak front that doesn't have a lot of cool dry air, and one that washes out right over the Gulf. Until we see what this front actually does, I'm not ready to say we can or can't have anything form in the Gulf although I'm leaning against it now.
Quoting 409. Tazmanian:

bye GRACE

AL, 07, 2015090912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 482W, 25, 1008, DB

Where can i get that???
Quoting 395. pcola57:



Good Morning all..
That trailing edge of the Low in the Midwest could be trouble if it enters the GOM,stalls, and then lifts out to the north near La./Texas area IMO..
5 to 7 days out..
Seen it happen time and again..
Energy in the GOM,this time of year,with conditions as they are:SST's ,Southern Jet Stream in place ect..
JMO like I said..
Thought's?




Thanks for giving me flashbacks of Opal, I'll never forget her sitting in the BOC and then making a beeline for our area when the cold front picked her up!
Quoting 403. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This surface chart is a little bit old, but you can see that Bloom by Tobago is associated with a tropical wave, it may need to be watched in a couple of days as it moves through the Caribbean for any signs of development, especially once it gets towards the Western Caribbean and perhaps this is the system the Euro develops in the BOC in about 4-5 days.


I think this is yet another in a series of tropical waves that has moved across the far southern Caribbean and Panama all season. The energy eventually gets into the Pacific, helping to get storms going there. Unless this wave has some magic shear destroying properties, it seems very unlikely it could move north against the 20-30 knots of shear in the western Caribbean. It seems like whatever has a chance to develop in the Gulf would be from a low in the BOC forming off the end of a persistent TX/MX trough, but it would be weak and fighting even more shear.
Quoting 404. StormTrackerScott:

This sure as heck looks a lot like June 1998. We had a very wet Winter 1997/1998 then come late Spring the rain stopped and the wildfires began popping up all over the place. 2 very similar El-Nino's 1997 & 2015 so this dry June forecast across FL is concerning.


I agree. The system the models have detected the past couple days over the gulf is likely the wave nearing the Caribbean.
Quoting 411. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Where can i get that???
You can get it decoded at Tropical Atlantic.
Grace still has a surface circulation but it's once again outrunning the pulse of convection formed earlier today. Grace actually looks like it's speeding up now, with a forward motion of around 18 mph. This is not a good sign for a weak system if it's going to get any kind of lasting convection over the center. If this continues, Grace probably has 12-18 hours before it becomes a remnant low and maybe another 12 hours before dissipation. The good thing is it should still carry enough moisture to the Windwards for some needed rains without being organized enough to cause what happened in Dominica with Erika.

417. MahFL
Quoting 396. Tazmanian:




nothing new they get flash flood watches year round in S CA so please dont act like you never seen that be for or here that be for


Not in the last 4 years, they have been in an exceptional drought.
Quoting 414. hydrus:

I agree. The system the models have detected the past couple days over the gulf is likely the wave nearing the Caribbean.
"Valid for June, 2016" and the anomaly is a minus two inches. It might be a little early to put all of Florida to the torch yet.
Quoting 417. MahFL:



Not in the last 4 years, they have been in an exceptional drought.
The flash flood watch is for the mountains and the deserts. They see this almost every year when the monsoon season is in full swing. The overall state of drought doesn't really affect this kind of thing.
420. FOREX
Quoting 406. LargoFl:

CMC still has something coming in east coast florida and crossing to the gulf next week....
Please do not take this as a personal attack towards you because it is not. I actually really enjoy reading your posts. Just curious why the CMC model keeps getting posted when the majority of the time here in this blog the bloggers discount anything it shows?
Quoting 416. sar2401:

Grace still has a surface circulation but it's once again outrunning the pulse of convection formed earlier today. Grace actually looks like it's speeding up now, with a forward motion of around 18 mph. This is not a good sign for a weak system if it's going to get any kind of lasting convection over the center. If this continues, Grace probably has 12-18 hours before it becomes a remnant low and maybe another 12 hours before dissipation. The good thing is it should still carry enough moisture to the Windwards for some needed rains without being organized enough to cause what happened in Dominica with Erika.




I don't think it's carrying any significant amount of moisture based on its current appearance. If the center is destroyed, then that is pretty much it for convection.
422. FOREX
Quoting 402. pcola57:


Ty..
I will still stick to my weather sense on this one..
Happened here in P'cola when we set an all time rainfall record for this area 2 yrs. ago..
I think a GOM homegrown T/C is yet to come this season..
Like I also said..
It's a "me" observation and gut feel from my experience along the GOM..
Lots of potential in the GOM ATM and going forward in a weeks time..
Oh I understand completely. I am your neighbor just to your East. I wasn't trying to be rude. Hope you didn't take it that way. Sorry my friend.
Quoting 410. sar2401:

The situation for that to happen, while not impossible, is far from ideal. The front coming here on Friday/Saturday still has to make it out into the Gulf, and that keeps changing from run to run. The deep layer moisture in the Gulf is high for the date, but the front will be bring some very dry air with it. That should push the moisture further south and stabilize things along the coast. The temperatures with the airmass behind the front, while not record cold, will still be unseasonably cold for the South. We usually see these tail end lows form on a relatively weak front that doesn't have a lot of cool dry air, and one that washes out right over the Gulf. Until we see what this front actually does, I'm not ready to say we can or can't have anything form in the Gulf although I'm leaning against it now.


Thanks sar and well put..
You and I ,Pat,Forex,Viking,and many more have a vested interest in these types of occurrences..
It's good to get your input as well..
I'm not hyping at all on this to happen..
Just a heads up for us as we move towards the fall months and tend to be complacent..
I've had a few comments coming from folks that have quite a bit of "deck time" in the GOM..
Rigs and workboat folks..
Bending my ear concerning the very high humidity,currents and Temps out there..
Some going as far as saying things like..
"Having to anchor" in /around the rigs in unusual places..
"Strongest currents they've seen in awhile"
PH, (Petroleum Helicopter ) pilots mentioning fog bank after fog bank in locations not the norm..
As I hear these folks, I am inclined to believe Them..
These are mentioned as "odd" by folks working and living out there..
I am of course Voicing my opinion..
And model support isn't there to back me up..
So all in all, in essence, ..
My "2 cent's worth"..
FWIW..
Thank's again.. :)
Quoting 422. FOREX:

Oh I understand completely. I am your neighbor just to your East. I wasn't trying to be rude. Hope you didn't take it that way. Sorry my friend.


No offence taken at all Forex.. :)
NWS New Orleans/Slidell disco'
Previous discussion... /issued 308 am CDT Wednesday Sep 9 2015/

Short term...
several features to affect the area over the next several days.
The first of these will be a cbrz that should get going this
afternoon along the entire coast. This will help rain chances
become a little better than they have been the last few days.
Higher pop numbers should be seen along the coastal regions rather
than well inland. Thursday will see a cold front stall over
northern la and become diffuse. The stalled trough axis along with
moisture loading from the Gulf should be enough to keep pop
numbers high for Thursday. Friday will keep the same features in place for
the most part with some subsident warming and capping to our
immediate north. A new cold front will make its way into the area
by Sat morning. Winds will shift to northerly before the actual
cold front moves through. But that lag time should only be around
4 hours. May be a little breezy Sat night and sun. But it should
be very comfortable as deep temperatures will back off into the lower 50s.

Long term...
bottle the weather Sat and sun because the cold front will return
rapidly Monday night and Tuesday as deep tropical moisture and warm air
move back over the area as the previous cold front moves north as
a warm front. Rain chances will increase dramatically from dry on Monday
to wet on Tuesday. This all takes place because another strong
cold front will begin to move this way drawing all this weather
back over the Gulf Coast through middle week. The eruo and the GFS
disagree on how to solve anything after middle next week.
Does anyone know how many times the CMC model's forecast 10 days in advance has proven generally accurate so far this year?
428. MahFL
Quoting 403. GTstormChaserCaleb:

...perhaps this is the system the Euro develops in the BOC in about 4-5 days....


I doubt it, the Caribbean is bone dry AND shear is moderate to high :




Quoting 417. MahFL:



Not in the last 4 years, they have been in an exceptional drought.
The rare flash flood in SoCal has 0 effect on drought, we need the Alaskan Express to start pumping those monster cold fronts down and pick up the SoJet coming up from on top of all that juicy Nino warmth.. that'll help
Quoting 426. rmbjoe1954:

Does anyone know how many times the CMC model's forecast 10 days in advance has proven generally accurate so far this year?
Nearly zero, but there's always a first time. :-0
Quoting 426. rmbjoe1954:

Does anyone know how many times the CMC model's forecast 10 days in advance has proven generally accurate so far this year?


None...
I'm in La la land when I see that

As per the 11am advisory, Grace has degenerated into an open wave.

And TD8 is still a depression, but it looks very robust.
2016... :)

...GRACE DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN WAVE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
Quoting 423. pcola57:



Thanks sar and well put..
You and I ,Pat,Forex,Viking,and many more have a vested interest in these types of occurrences..
It's good to get your input as well..
I'm not hyping at all on this to happen..
Just a heads up for us as we move towards the fall months and tend to be complacent..
I've had a few comments coming from folks that have quite a bit of "deck time" in the GOM..
Rigs and workboat folks..
Bending my ear concerning the very high humidity,currents and Temps out there..
Some going as far as saying things like..
"Having to anchor" in /around the rigs in unusual places..
"Strongest currents they've seen in awhile"
PH, (Petroleum Helicopter ) pilots mentioning fog bank after fog bank in locations not the norm..
As I hear these folks, I am inclined to believe Them..
These are mentioned as "odd" by folks working and living out there..
I am of course Voicing my opinion..
And model support isn't there to back me up..
So all in all, in essence, ..
My "2 cent's worth"..
FWIW..
Thank's again.. :)
You're welcome. Conditions in the Gulf have really been primed almost all season. High SST's, low shear in the eastern Gulf, and a lot of unstable air toward Cuba and the Yucatan. As we saw with Erika and several permutations of that low, however, storms have not been able to take advantage of these conditions. The one real change going forward is the increasing jet over the Gulf as Fall progresses. This should help improve the almost complete lack of steering currents we've see in the past few months. As we get more and stronger fronts, conditions for a more robust tail end low in the Gulf should improve. El Nino may still work against this happening though. I'm not surprised that people working in the Gulf think things are strange. It's been along time since we had a strong El Nino (almost 20 years) and many of the people working today may have still been kids when we had the last one. There's certainly a better chance of something tropical that becomes a threat in the Gulf than the rather sad excuses for storms we've seen in the MDR so far this year.
Not quite as often as this blog's infamous poster "Stormtop" was.

Quoting 426. rmbjoe1954:

Does anyone know how many times the CMC model's forecast 10 days in advance has proven generally accurate so far this year?
MDR Gauntlet.

Quoting 433. LostTomorrows:

As per the 11am advisory, Grace has degenerated into an open wave.

And TD8 is still a depression, but it looks very robust.
Looks like my forecast for this to happen in 24 hours was a bit optimistic then....
Cue the Eurythmics..

Quoting 418. sar2401:

"Valid for June, 2016" and the anomaly is a minus two inches. It might be a little early to put all of Florida to the torch yet.
10 and 3 withwater, berber, checks tree karst not 7.....6 pack ring...and a two..that is all
This could definitely rank on the top of one of the most boring seasons ever ...
Quoting 421. weatherbda:



I don't think it's carrying any significant amount of moisture based on its current appearance. If the center is destroyed, then that is pretty much it for convection.
You might be right, but an open wave, as it has now become, can still carry a fair bit of water in the tropics. I was actually more wary of waves when I was sailing in the tropics that actual lows. At least I had a pretty good idea of the limits and carrying capacity of a low. Once it collapsed, things tended to spread out more unpredictably. As long as the end product doesn't cause any more problems in Dominica, it will be a good result. I note our former "wave train" in Africa has now apparently come off the rails. Grace may be our last MDR named storm this season.

Quoting 440. hydrus:

10 and 3 withwater, berber, checks tree karst not 7.....6 pack ring...and a two..that is all
Well, I wouldn't go that far. :-)
Quoting 443. sar2401:

Well, I wouldn't go that far. :-)
I differ on this..I will go that far. I was told by the totality to move on this immediately. Time is precious. Hope you are healing well from surgery..:)
Quoting 403. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This surface chart is a little bit old, but you can see that Bloom by Tobago is associated with a tropical wave, it may need to be watched in a couple of days as it moves through the Caribbean for any signs of development, especially once it gets towards the Western Caribbean and perhaps this is the system the Euro develops in the BOC in about 4-5 days.



Just hearing some thunder, and seeing a flare-up over the Northeastern peninsula of Trinidad.
Interesting, mostly because thunder has been pretty rare this season.
About 1/8" rainfall in central Trinidad overnight, with squally conditions.

NICE weather for a change !
Quoting 441. Melagoo:

This could definitely rank on the top of one of the most boring seasons ever ...
I just checked, and the MDR cat appears to be taking a nap. The Gulf cat is starting to stir, however, with a sidelong glance toward the CMC. Things could either continue on this path, or the cat may be starting to hyperventilate soon. :-)
Quoting 441. Melagoo:

This could definitely rank on the top of one of the most boring seasons ever ...

Doubt it.
RIP Grace.

Quoting 441. Melagoo:

This could definitely rank on the top of one of the most boring seasons ever ...
Did you track in 82-83 seasons. If not, you dont know what boring is..

TWC INPUT:
ATLANTIC
Grace has mustered a little more convection (thunderstorms) this afternoon, but continues to face a rough road ahead, with shear, and the dry air via satellite imagery.

(MORE: Grace)

NHC is giving a system out beyond Bermuda a medium chance of developing.

Models suggest the next "African easterly wave" that has a chance will be one coming off the coast this weekend.

Gulf of Mexico
As for what the Thing in the Gulf of Mexico was, meteorologically, over the weekend it had characteristics of a "hybrid," i.e. some of a tropical system and some of a non-tropical one, ultimately tending to be more tropical with time. Around ~6-7 a.m. this morning, a WU station measured sustained winds as high as 35 mph (anemometer height within a couple meters of the standard ten), just a few short of tropical storm force (39 mph), and those occurred in convection concentrated near the center of a "closed" circulation at the surface.

This afternoon, the rainbands have dispersed a bit with the center having made landfall and moved farther inland; there's still a swirling wind circulation (incl. gusts to 25 mph at Albany and Tifton) with tropical clouds and dewpoints (the green numbers).

Looking ahead in the western Gulf, models are split as to the potential for tropical storm formation this weekend into next week; they agree on that being a general area of rising air, low pressure, and heavy precipitation (per the model forecast map below for that time period), thus something for which to watch future model trends.
The 1983 Hurricane season was the least active since 1930, but 1930 did have two major hurricanes..

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

NCZ106-091515-
COASTAL PENDER-
1010 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PENDER COUNTY...

AT 1009 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER TOPSAIL BEACH...OR
NEAR RICH INLET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. A FUNNEL
CLOUD HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SURF CITY...HAMPSTEAD AND TOPSAIL BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
Quoting 445. hydrus:

I differ on this..I will go that far. I was told by the totality to move on this immediately. Time is precious. Hope you are healing well from surgery..:)
Yes, well, you would differ on this. :-)

Funny you should mention the surgery. I went back to my optometrist yesterday. I now have half rainbows above every light at night, and all the colors transmitted by the "repaired" eye don't look right. Water vapor looks purple, which doesn't make it any easier to look at satellite photos. He said I should wear those yellow driving glasses at night and only look at satellite photos with my "unrepaired" eye. Thank goodness I pay a lot of money for this kind of advice. You'd almost think I was going to some kind of quack otherwise...
Is it just me or did TD8 just shift a little south?
Quoting 432. CaribBoy:

I'm in La la land when I see that


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 17h17 hours ago
Looking at ECMWF seasonal forecast SST -- of course #ElNino but thru March 2016, most of North Atlantic as much as 2°C below normal
Quoting 450. hydrus:

Did you track in 82-83 seasons. If not, you dont know what boring is..


82-83 was the huge el nino year?
Quoting 455. FunnelVortex:

Is it just me or did TD8 just shift a little south?


Possibly. Looks like it to me
Quoting 451. tiggerhurricanes2001:

TWC INPUT:
ATLANTIC
Grace has mustered a little more convection (thunderstorms) this afternoon, but continues to face a rough road ahead, with shear, and the dry air via satellite imagery.

(MORE: Grace)

NHC is giving a system out beyond Bermuda a medium chance of developing.

Models suggest the next "African easterly wave" that has a chance will be one coming off the coast this weekend.

Gulf of Mexico
As for what the Thing in the Gulf of Mexico was, meteorologically, over the weekend it had characteristics of a "hybrid," i.e. some of a tropical system and some of a non-tropical one, ultimately tending to be more tropical with time. Around ~6-7 a.m. this morning, a WU station measured sustained winds as high as 35 mph (anemometer height within a couple meters of the standard ten), just a few short of tropical storm force (39 mph), and those occurred in convection concentrated near the center of a "closed" circulation at the surface.

This afternoon, the rainbands have dispersed a bit with the center having made landfall and moved farther inland; there's still a swirling wind circulation (incl. gusts to 25 mph at Albany and Tifton) with tropical clouds and dewpoints (the green numbers).

Looking ahead in the western Gulf, models are split as to the potential for tropical storm formation this weekend into next week; they agree on that being a general area of rising air, low pressure, and heavy precipitation (per the model forecast map below for that time period), thus something for which to watch future model trends.
I take it this was for yesterday. I'd like to know where this station was with the 35 mph sustained wind was. My high wind yesterday was 9 mph. I'm 50 miles of west Albany.
Quoting 458. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Possibly. Looks like it to me
Looks like the convection shifted NE while the center is more or less stationary.
Quoting 457. Gearsts:

82-83 was the huge el nino year?
Yes, second to 97-98 and, of course, this year.
Quoting 460. sar2401:

Looks like the convection shifted NE while the center is more or less stationary.

Here we go...

Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT43 KNHC 091437
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015

The depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located
just to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep
convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The vertical
shear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is
forecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours. Therefore strengthening
seems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream.
By 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures
near 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance.

The depression has been meandering this morning and the current
motion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt. Over
the next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to
the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave
trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should
result in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed
beginning within 12 hours. After 48 hours, the system should turn
to the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies. The
official track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good
agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. An
alternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become
absorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a
couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 30.7N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 33.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 35.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 38.8N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 48.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 461. sar2401:

Yes, second to 97-98 and, of course, this year.
Just found this:
When will TD8 be named?
Quoting 446. pottery:


Just hearing some thunder, and seeing a flare-up over the Northeastern peninsula of Trinidad.
Interesting, mostly because thunder has been pretty rare this season.
About 1/8" rainfall in central Trinidad overnight, with squally conditions.

NICE weather for a change !
That wave which looks more like a TC than Grace has should favor you with some decent rain today and tonight. The remnants of the intense low that moved inland over Georgia yesterday has now started to retrograde west over north Alabama. Since I only got 0.09" yesterday, when it was still intense, I don't have high hope for it in its present degraded condition. In the entire Southeast, Alabama is the only state without anything resembling a rain cloud right now.
Quoting 465. FunnelVortex:

When will TD8 be named?
Henri, with a diacritical mark over the "i", which I'm too lazy to make right now. It's not looking real "Henri"ish right now though.
Quoting 462. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Here we go...

Where do we go?
Quoting 467. sar2401:

Henri, with a diacritical mark over the "i", which I'm too lazy to make right now. It's not looking real "Henri"ish right now though.

Shear too strong at the moment
Quoting 468. sar2401:

Where do we go?

Lol it's moving ESE at 3 mph.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 456. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 17h17 hours ago
Looking at ECMWF seasonal forecast SST -- of course #ElNino but thru March 2016, most of North Atlantic as much as 2°C below normal


So... what does that mean :( ?? Dry Caribbean again??
Quoting 440. hydrus:

10 and 3 withwater, berber, checks tree karst not 7.....6 pack ring...and a two..that is all
Hydrus, you must be taking lessons from Taz -- I can't understand any of that except the last three words! (Not that I need to :-)