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U.S. Wildfires 2015: Are The Worst Yet To Come?

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:38 PM GMT on September 02, 2015

Thus far, 2015 has been one of the worst U.S. wildland fire seasons since modern records began. More than 8.2 million acres have burned across the nation as of September 1, an area larger than Massachusetts and Rhode Island combined. Across the last ten years, that’s the largest amount of fire-scorched U.S. acreage for the January-August period, and it’s close to 50% above the decadal year-to-date average. We are well ahead of the pace set in 2007, when 9,328,045 acres burned, the highest annual total in records going back to 1960.



Figure 1. Flames from a backfire operation burn behind an emergency vehicle near the Rocky Fire on August 3, 2015, near Clearlake, California, north of San Francisco. Some 3,000 firefighters battled the Rocky Fire, which burned more than 80,000 acres and destroyed almost 100 residences and outbuildings. Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty images.


There’s a more complex story hiding behind these factoids. Certainly there have been some intense and large fires across the Pacific Northwest, pumping out smoke that’s reddened skies and clotted lungs across large swaths of the nation. But up until August, the main factor behind this year’s large wildfire acreage (as explained by Tom Yulsman at Discover’s ImaGeo blog) was the extent of fire in Alaska. More than 5.1 million acres had burned across the state as of September 1, most of it by midsummer. With Alaska’s fire activity now slowing down, the state’s total affected acreage will likely rank second behind 2004, when a total of 6,590,140 Alaskan acres went up in flames.

It was clear by early summer that the Pacific Northwest was in line for a potentially rough fire season, with long streches of record spring and summer heat following a winter with record-low snowpack. Simply having a parched landscape doesn’t automatically translate into big fire, though. If strong, dry winds are absent; if fires aren’t triggered by lightning and/or human activity; and/or if firefighters manage to tamp down fires quickly, then the potential for disaster may go unrealized. Wildfires didn’t begin taking full advantage of the Pacific Northwest’s primed-for-fire condition until mid-August, when the Okanogan Complex roared to life across north-central Washington. Now the state’s largest assemblage of wildfires on record, the Okanogan Complex (40 percent contained as of Tuedsay) has destroyed more than 170 homes.


Figure 2.The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September 2015 shows above-normal risk across parts of four western states, as well as a small part of central Texas. Image credit: National Interagency Coordination Center.


On August 13, officials upgraded the National Preparedness Level for wildland fire to category 5, the highest, meaning that multiple major fires have the potential to exhaust all of the nation’s firefighting resources. This is the first category-5 ranking since a week-long stretch in August 2013, and the fifth such period in the last ten years. Cooler temperatures should continue to tamp down the fire risk in Alaska this month, but it’s far too soon for other western states to rest easy. The latest monthly outlooks for wildland fire potential, issued on Monday by the National Interagency Coordination Center, show an above-normal risk of significant wildfire in September across eastern Washington, northeast Oregon, and far northwest Montana, as well as the Sierra Nevada and coastal mountains south of the Bay Area in California. By October, the risk is expected to return to near normal over the Pacific Northwest and central California, but the highly populated belt of Southern California is still targeted for above-normal risk.

Why fall is the most-feared time for wildfire in California
California’s Mediterranean climate means that rainfall is focused in the period from late fall into spring, with the landscape then getting progressively drier until the next wet season kicks in. This sets up prime conditions for wildland fire during the typically warm, dry weather of September and October, sometimes goosed by strong offshore winds (dubbed the Santa Ana wind in the L.A. area). Late October 1991 brought the horrific Oakland hills firestorm, which destroyed more than 2,800 homes and killed 25 people, and Southern California’s record-setting wildfire seasons of 2003 and 2007 both peaked in October.


Figure 3. Meg Tallberg (left), whose home was not damaged by fire, offers her support to neighbor and friend Jenny Fratis (right), whose house (background) was destroyed in the Witch Fire, as residents returned to Rancho Bernardo in California's San Diego County on 25 October, 2007. Image credit: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images.


This year, California is entering fire season after four years of drought, culminating in what’s been the warmest year for California in more than a century of recordkeeping. Although some unusual summer rains have provided dabs of relief across the far southeastern desert, much of the landscape across central and southern California remains tinder-dry. Some 46% of the state is now in exceptional drought, the highest ranking assigned by the National Drought Mitigation Center in its weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s down a bit from 58% at this time a year ago, but the impacts of long-term drought in the hardest-hit areas remain severe. In August, a study from the University of California, Davis, estimated that the ongoing drought will cost California about $2.7 billion in 2015. Several intense, destructive fires have already struck the state, including the small but frightening, interstate-jumping North Fire east of Los Angeles in mid-July and the huge Rocky and Jerusalem Fires north of San Francisco in late July/early August.

The main questions awaiting the West’s fire-prone areas this autumn--questions that forecasters can’t answer with confidence--is how often and where windy frontal systems and/or strong offshore flow will materialize. NOAA’s seasonal outlook for September through November maintains above-average temperatures throughout the West Coast states, with precipitation below average in the Pacific Northwest and above average over southern California. The strengthening El Niño gives SoCal a good chance at above-average rains this winter, but the heaviest Niño-related rains often don't arrive till December/January.


Figure 4. While in Alaska, WU art director Lauren Moyer captured the not-so-common sight of a virtually cloud-free Mount Denali on August 3, 2015. In the foreground is a WU personal weather station, MEVCA2. Image credit: wunderphotographer moyerdestroyer.

Climate change and wildfire risk
One of the key points made by President Barack Obama in his visit to Alaska this week (including Wednesday’s scheduled stop north of the Arctic Circle, the first ever by a president in office) is the role of human-induced climate change in exacerbating wildfire risk across the state. In a speech delivered Monday in Anchorage, Obama noted: “Alaska’s fire season is now more than a month longer than it was in 1950. At one point this summer, more than 300 wildfires were burning at once.” The lengthening fire season in Alaska reflects a global trend: a new open-access analysis published in Nature Comunications in July found that 25% of Earth’s vegetated surface saw fire seasons grow longer from 1979 to 2013 by an average of close to 20%.



Figure 5. Areas that have experienced changes in the frequency of long fire weather seasons (at least one standard deviation above the historical average) during the period 1996-2013 compared with 1979–1996. Reds indicate areas where fire weather seasons have lengthened or long fire weather seasons have become more frequent. Blues indicate areas where fire weather seasons have shortened or long fire weather seasons have become less frequent. Image credit: Figure 3(b), “Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013,” W. Matt Jolly et al., Nature Communications 2013.


Alaska has warmed more quickly than the rest of the nation over the last 60 years, with annual average temperatures in Alaska climbing by about 3.0°F over the period from 1949 to 2014. The warming has come in phases, according to the Alaska Climate Research Center, with temperatures spiking in the 1970s and then plateauing at a “new normal” for several decades before a new level of warmth was hit in 2014, continuing into this year. The period Jan-July 2015 was Alaska’s second warmest in 91 years of recordkeeping, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The U.S. National Climate Assessment, published in 2014, had this to say about Alaska’s evolving climate and fire risk: “Both wetland drying and the increased frequency of warm dry summers and associated thunderstorms have led to more large fires in the last ten years than in any decade since record-keeping began in the 1940s….More extensive and severe wildfires could shift the forests of Interior Alaska during this century from dominance by spruce to broadleaf trees for the first time in the past 4,000 to 6,000 years.”



Figure 6. Annual average temperature across Alaska, 1949 – 2014. Image credit: Alaska Climate Research Center.


Wildfires are the complex product of many variables, including forest management, fire suppression, temperatures and moisture, ignition sources, and firefighting practices. Prior to European settlement, gigantic fires were part of the natural ecosystems across much of North America. In a dot.earth blog post from 2013, Andrew Revkin discusses the historical context of U.S. fire suppression and its role in helping lay the groundwork for today’s megafires. Whatever factors have led to the forests we have today, their ability to burn intensely is being stoked by rising temperatures that intensify the impacts of naturally occurring drought, a point illustrated vividly this year from California to Washington and emphasized in several recent studies (including this one, published just this week in Geophysical Research Letters). There will be some inevitable randomness in the final, fateful steps (weather events, arsonists, etc.) that lead from a particular parched landscape to a devastating fire. We’re very unlikely to see the entire West in flames anytime soon (thankfully!), but it’s reasonable to expect that heat unprecedented in modern times and dried-out vegetation will sometimes lead to fires more intense and/or widespread than ever before seen by residents of a given area. With ever-larger numbers of Americans choosing to live amid western forests, and cities such as Oakland and Los Angeles adjoining fire-prone areas, the risks to life and property will only rise with time.



Figure 7. It’s a hurricane! It’s a typhoon! It’s both! Dan Lindsey (CIRA) posted this tongue-in-cheek analysis of Kilo, using a visible image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite, as the storm straddled the International Date Line on September 1, 2015. Hurricanes are reclassified as typhoons when they move west across the Date Line. The Sydney Morning News asked whether Kilo should be called a “hurriphoon” or a “typhane.” Kilo was officially reclassified from Hurricane Kilo to Typhoon Kilo at 0600 GMT on September 1. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA/JMA.


Tropics calming down
After weeks of hyperactivity, the Northern Hemisphere tropics are beginning to calm down for the time being. The 00Z Thursday morning run of the GFS model was not predicting any new tropical cyclones to develop anywhere in the world during the next seven days, though the European model was showing possible development next week of a tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa this Friday. This wave is expected to move westwards at about 15 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands; NHC did not mention this wave in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Tropical Storm Fred continues to weaken in the far eastern North Atlantic; likewise, Hurricane Jimena in the Northeast Pacific and Hurricane Ignacio in the Central Pacific are gradually spinning down. Only Typhoon Kilo is expected to resurge over the next several days. Currently almost stationary just west of the International Date Line, Kilo should gradually accelerate westward across warm waters south of a subtropical ridge, gaining strength along the way and perhaps reaching Category 4 status once again by the end of the week. Today (September 2) is Kilo’s 13th day as a tropical cyclone, and this morning's run of the GFS model predicted that Kilo would remain a tropical cyclone for at least nine more days. According to the National Hurricane Center, the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the satellite era is Hurricane/Typhoon John, which was tracked for 31 days during August and September 1994.

WU contributor Phil Klotzbach has a new post on the recent frenzy of North Central Pacific activity; see also his two-part entry on record-setting action across the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, posted on August 25 and August 28.

We’ll be back with another post on Thursday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Sunset over the Columbia.
Sunset over the Columbia.
Smoke from the forest fires of the summer of 2015, combined with clouds made an interesting sunset.
Smoke in the air
Smoke in the air
Our area is supposed to be getting less smoke than so many other areas around us. We can definitely smell smoke here in Washougal, WA and would not want to be doing anything outside today for very long. We hope all will be safe in the PNW.
Inyo-Fire-.jpg
Inyo-Fire-.jpg
Walker Fire burning through Inyo Forest
Sockeye Fire Willow, AK
Sockeye Fire Willow, AK
Fire damage of the Sockeye Fire near Willow, AK

Fire Climate Change Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doks!
Make note of the heavy sighs to come,

TS Lee, on Sept 2, 2011, helped set Texas on fire with his hot, dry winds NW whipping up scorched earth and blowing resulting fires South with 100+ mile smoke plumes. Today Centex is exactly as vulnerable, having plunged back into drought with no measurable rain since mid-July.
Does the total of 8.2 million acres include the over 5 million acres burned in Alaska?

Reread the entry. Yes it does.
Jeff or Bob .. Is the below normal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook in southern Missouri, Southern Illinois and southern Indiana caused by the record breaking spring precipitation that area received ..
“hurriphoon” or a “typhane.” haahaahha this made my entire day LOL :D
Good afternoon

Just wanted drop this link off to the blog. Very interesting information being posted by bloggers in Dominica Link

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Vandaag is de warmste dag van het schooljaar tot nu tot.

Quoting 6. Josihua2:

“hurriphoon” or a “typhane.” haahaahha this made my entire day LOL :D


My vote is hurriphoon
Quoting 5. whitewabit:

Jeff or Bob .. Is the below normal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook in southern Missouri, Southern Illinois and southern Indiana caused by the record breaking spring precipitation that area received ..


Looks like that's the case, based on the forecast discussion from NIFC:

"Thirty to 90 day soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were near to above normal across the majority of the Eastern Area through the end of August 2015. The wettest portions of the Eastern Area at the end of August were portions of the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley. However, shorter term drying occurred across portions of the northwestern and central Great Lakes, western Mid-Atlantic States as well as parts of the Northeast through the end of the 2015 summer."
It' a real shame that MEVCA2 is not reporting. Someone put a lot of effort
into that station, and now it looks like a motherless child.
  Thank You, Dynamic Duo..... Excellent Post....
Quoting 347. Neapolitan:

Here's the view from Naples of the high-altitude smoke trail left by the 6:18 AM launch of an Atlas V rocket from the Cape, carrying the Navy's MUOS 4 satellite. These were from about, respectively, 20 minutes and 25 minutes after launch (forgive the quality; handheld cellphone):






Ah so your username makes sense now, thought you might just be a big ice cream fan.
Thank You Mr. Henson for the great info/research. Alaska is on a very short-stick as related to climate change issues; I would actually be curious as to what the stats are for other nations/territories above the Arctic circle in terms of fire and/or global melt issues. I would suspect that parts of Siberia, with the combination of huge forest areas and permafrost as well could be facing the same types of issues as Alaska.
Quoting 10. aquak9:

It' a real shame that MEVCA2 is not reporting. Someone put a lot of effort
into that station, and now it looks like a motherless child.


looks to be off road so a pack in .. don't see electric wires so battery powered maybe solar .. guessing maybe a satellite hook-up maybe .. see its cold around the area from other stations .. temps in the mid 40's and lower ..
Quoting 400. tiggeriffic:



Didn't Bonnie do a loop de loop out in the atlantic one year?


You're probably thinking of Dennis, one year after Bonnie:



Along with cold air behind the trough that picked up Floyd, helped set the stage for massive flooding.
Quoting 11. PedleyCA:

  Thank You, Dynamic Duo..... Excellent Post....



Review of the 1935 season by month, September is page 2 [Link].
Quoting 14. whitewabit:



looks to be off road so a pack in .. don't see electric wires so battery powered maybe solar .. guessing maybe a satellite hook-up maybe .. see its cold around the area from other stations .. temps in the mid 40's and lower ..
It's a Frankenstein of parts n pieces....
Updated shear/tendency charts from CIMMS (11:00 am) for those interested. You can see the very broad anti-cyclonic upper level circulation, centered over Florida, in the chart immediately below but there is nothing at the surface or mid levels: however, that circulation is currently helping keep shear very low in part of the Gulf and off the Coast of Florida.





I don't usually browse AccuWeather, but was looking at their hurricane tracker to see if it was updated with the HURDAT2 information (it was not). But nevertheless an article on what is expected for the rest of September, including a bit on the low that might develop into a subtropical storm near Bermuda [Link]. Hopefully not a conflict of interest linking it.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

Excerpt:

A POTENTIAL MAIN PLAYER IN THE FORECAST LIES OUTSIDE THE US AS HURRICANE IGNACIO HEADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ALASKA AND IS LIKELY TO INTERACT IN SOME WAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE STATE.


I thought it was just the UKMET that had it in for Alaska......


Fred on Life Support...


Depression 14-E weak.
Quoting 15. win1gamegiantsplease:



You're probably thinking of Dennis, one year after Bonnie:



Along with cold air behind the trough that picked up Floyd, helped set the stage for massive flooding.


actually, I went and looked....it was the 2004....Bonnie was a storm that year but it was Jeanne that I was thinking of....the reason I remembered the loop and Bonnie is I use to work with a girl named Bonnie and we teased that it was HER twirling out in the water....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-200 4.png
Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

Beautiful day in Soo Cal....82 degrees and 10% humidity at mi casa!
Quoting 11. PedleyCA:

  Thank You, Dynamic Duo..... Excellent Post....



How goes it Ped? Nice day huh?
Quoting 23. tiggeriffic:



actually, I went and looked....it was the 2004....Bonnie was a storm that year but it was Jeanne that I was thinking of....the reason I remembered the loop and Bonnie is I use to work with a girl named Bonnie and we teased that it was HER twirling out in the water....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-200 4.png


Yep Jeanne definitely looped, crazy how Bonnie was nearly a Cat-3 at landfall here and wasn't retired, but it wasn't a Fran or did anything Floyd did in the Tidewater region.

I was actually at the Blockade Runner when Jeanne was creeping up this way, the surf was nuts. Then the next day or so it was fine.
Quoting 18. aquak9:

It's a Frankenstein of parts n pieces....


Yes I noticed that .. wonder if its at an out-fitters summer base camp .. there's some kind of an antenna on the unit too ..


EPAC cyclone will be stripped of its moisture in 24 hours.
tropical waves with tropical lows over Africa

Wow, great read today. Thank you both.
Quoting 27. whitewabit:



Yes I noticed that .. wonder if its at an out-fitters summer base camp .. there's some kind of an antenna on the unit too ..
Denali is huge., there's a lotta out-camps there, you're right.

That poor station has Davis parts, Columbia parts, and stuff I don't even recognize. WeatherHawk? oh well. Such a nice picture in a featured blog- and no data. Oh, the ironing.


The World Lost An Area Of Trees Twice The Size Of Portugal In 2014

Link
Remnant Erika dumping rain on Jax now.

"... Significant weather advisory for central Duval and southwestern
Nassau counties until 300 PM EDT...

At 208 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cecil field... or 13 miles west of Jacksonville... moving northeast at
20 mph.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage."
Quoting 33. rxse7en:

Remnant Erika dumping rain on Jax now.

"... Significant weather advisory for central Duval and southwestern
Nassau counties until 300 PM EDT...

At 208 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cecil field... or 13 miles west of Jacksonville... moving northeast at
20 mph.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage."


I'm in central Jacksonville, just east of the St. Johns and downtown. Most of the heavier storms are to the north of me right now, they do look potent.
Im with Ambassador Spock,,

We should send out a Planetary Distress signal.

Today.
Quoting 34. Stoopid1:



I'm in central Jacksonville, just east of the St. Johns and downtown. Most of the heavier storms are to the north of me right now, they do look potent.


Looks like the remnant has taken an easterly turn and lost it's northern component on radar. Curious to see what kind of convection is to be had once it's mostly over water and taking the southernly projected path.
Quoting 32. ColoradoBob1:



The World Lost An Area Of Trees Twice The Size Of Portugal In 2014

Link



I feel the need to go out and plant trees now
Quoting 22. 62901IL:

Fred on Life Support...


Depression 14-E weak.



14E won't become Kevin? D= Damn, the 3rd system without name? This is a waste!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 SEP 2015 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 16:33:14 N Lon : 115:04:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1006.1mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 3.0

Center Temp : -67.2C Cloud Region Temp : -53.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.0 degrees


Advanced Dvorak Technique (v8.1.4) using
NHC forecasts Storm History

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2015SEP02 183000 2.6 1006.1 37.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -65.46 -51.32 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.59 115.06 FCST GOES15 30.0
2015SEP02 180000 2.6 1006.1 37.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.46 -54.18 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.53 115.05 FCST GOES15 30.0
2015SEP02 173000 2.6 1006.2 37.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -69.36 -51.47 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.48 115.04 FCST GOES15 30.0
2015SEP02 170000 2.6 1006.2 37.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.46 -49.78 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.42 115.03 FCST GOES15 29.9

3:00 PM EDT Wednesday 2 September 2015

Temperature:

90.7°F

Dewpoint:

66.4°F

Humidity:

44%

Wind:

WNW 11 gust 19 mph

Humidex:

103
twc's got the leftovers off our florida east coast during the holiday wk end.
since the storm popped its top Fred might come alot further west than anticipated.


Nine? Jimena, you're the tenth storm on the list. Go home; you're drunk.

Seriously though, Jimena looks like a single giant spiral band. Pretty amazing.
Quoting 38. pablosyn:



14E won't become Kevin? D= Damn, the 3rd system without name? This is a waste!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 SEP 2015 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 16:33:14 N Lon : 115:04:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1006.1mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 3.0

Center Temp : -67.2C Cloud Region Temp : -53.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.0 degrees


Advanced Dvorak Technique (v8.1.4) using
NHC forecasts Storm History

===== ADT-Version 8.1.4 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2015SEP02 183000 2.6 1006.1 37.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -65.46 -51.32 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.59 115.06 FCST GOES15 30.0
2015SEP02 180000 2.6 1006.1 37.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.46 -54.18 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.53 115.05 FCST GOES15 30.0
2015SEP02 173000 2.6 1006.2 37.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -69.36 -51.47 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.48 115.04 FCST GOES15 30.0
2015SEP02 170000 2.6 1006.2 37.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF -68.46 -49.78 UNIFRM N/A N/A 16.42 115.03 FCST GOES15 29.9





more like the 4th TD has TD 4E did not get named in tell the C PAC but still counted for the E PAC side

so that would make it TD 4E TD 8E TD 12 E and now TD 14E and thats ok i want the named Kevin saved for a strong hurricane not a weak TS the name Kevin is a too good of a name to wast on a weak TD
Quoting 41. islander101010:

since the storm popped its top Fred might come alot further west than anticipated.




I don't think Erika's seed has any choice but to loop S and back W after trekking a while E.
Quoting 44. redwagon:





I don't think Erika's seed has any choice but to loop S and back W after trekking a while E.



there is no Erika why do you guys calling it Erika its ex Erika has there is no more Erika
Quoting 14. whitewabit:



looks to be off road so a pack in .. don't see electric wires so battery powered maybe solar .. guessing maybe a satellite hook-up maybe .. see its cold around the area from other stations .. temps in the mid 40's and lower ..
Quoting 27. whitewabit:



Yes I noticed that .. wonder if its at an out-fitters summer base camp .. there's some kind of an antenna on the unit too ..


It's a NPS station, here's another one they have in the backcountry, that's similar elevation (http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=MWONA2). They're not very accessible and have solar power, no power lines are in the park. This was outside Eielson at the base of Mt. Denali which is only open to special buses for a few months in the summer. The station was working earlier, let's hope it gets fixed before the park closes in a couple weeks.
Ex-Erika is finally trying to make a run at "land cane" with the swirl in South GA just to the NW of Jacksonville; no wonder Yall (in Jax) are getting pelted with rain...................More like rain bands............... :)

Quoting 43. Tazmanian:




more like the 4th TD has TD 4E did not get named in tell the C PAC but still counted for the E PAC side

so that would make it TD 4E TD 8E TD 12 E and now TD 14E and thats ok i want the named Kevin saved for a strong hurricane not a weak TS the name Kevin is a too good of a name to wast on a weak TD


I have the same feeling for Grace, she's gotta be a hurricane.

Shame, TD 4E looked really good as a wave.
The "eye" of ex-Erika just north of Homerville.

Have to head home early today but posting the Tally NWS discussion portion related to the remnants of ex-Erika and where they are headed in the short term (by Friday or Saturday) apparently just offshore (again). Worth a look in a few days to see if convection starts to develop within the current weak low. See Yall Tomorrow and have a safe weather evening:




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With the weak remnants of Erika moving away from the area, PoPs will
decrease rapidly across the eastern portions of the area after
sunset tonight with only a slight chance of a lingering shower or
two. Overnight lows are still expected to be fairly muggy in the mid
70s. Some patchy fog is possible as well, mainly across the eastern
half of the area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The 500 mb high centered over south FL Thursday morning will give
way to a developing trough. This weak, broad trough will be oriented
east to west from the western Atlantic through GA by Saturday
morning. At the surface, a weak low pressure system (the remnants of
Erika) will drift slowly southeastward off the FL east coast. By
Saturday morning a ridge will be building southward along the
Piedmont.
It seems that Fred will exist for quite a while as a post tropical system after tonight.
I am done end of the day its warm
104 here feel like temp 87.8 air
please send help in form of cold air
Quoting 45. Tazmanian:




there is no Erika why do you guys calling it Erika its ex Erika has there is no more Erika


Nothing wrong with calling it Erika as long as the energy from it is still there and we're able to track it. I think everyone knows it's not a full up storm anymore, no harm no foul calling it Erika IMO!

BTW, 90 here in NW Florida but only feels like 94 due to unusually low humidity at 49%!
let us consider a little-discussed effect of widespread forest fires and extended seasons therefor: soot from northwestern fires rising very high into the stratosphere (or wherever they may go up there) and then getting carried north, north, and east to eventually settle on ice-covered areas such as, oh, I dunno- sea ice around the North Pole, or glaciers in Greenland maybe? thus reducing the planet's albedo and making the ice melt that much faster...

and we all know what that brings!
Quoting 54. AldousHux1:

we all know what that brings!



climate chaos


hehehe
Quoting 48. win1gamegiantsplease:



I have the same feeling for Grace, she's gotta be a hurricane.

Shame, TD 4E looked really good as a wave.



the nhc did a poor job with TD 4E and in fac TD 8E was all so looking really good the nhc called it a TD has it was losing its look
2015 could be a record dry year.
Quoting 54. AldousHux1:

let us consider a little-discussed effect of widespread forest fires and extended seasons therefor: soot from northwestern fires rising very high into the stratosphere (or wherever they may go up there) and then getting carried north, north, and east to eventually settle on ice-covered areas such as, oh, I dunno- sea ice around the North Pole, or glaciers in Greenland maybe? thus reducing the planet's albedo and making the ice melt that much faster...

and we all know what that brings!


It almost never makes it to the stratosphere. It is stopped by the tropopause, the inversion at the top of the troposphere. Only intense convection and very strong volcanic eruptions (and nuclear weapons) produce sufficient heating or upward motion to drive particles into the stratosphere . Many smoke plumes stabilize somewhere in the upper troposphere below the tropopause (and passenger jet flight levels) and then get carried around by winds aloft until they slowly settle out or (often) get rained out. Once smoke or other particulates get into the stratosphere though they can stay for many months to several years.
Quoting 24. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

Beautiful day in Soo Cal....82 degrees and 10% humidity at mi casa!


Isn't every day a beautiful day in So Cal? lol
Quoting 57. CaribBoy:

2015 could be a record dry year.


Or, a record wet year, depending on where you live.
Quoting 54. AldousHux1:

let us consider a little-discussed effect of widespread forest fires and extended seasons therefor: soot from northwestern fires rising very high into the stratosphere (or wherever they may go up there) and then getting carried north, north, and east to eventually settle on ice-covered areas such as, oh, I dunno- sea ice around the North Pole, or glaciers in Greenland maybe? thus reducing the planet's albedo and making the ice melt that much faster...

and we all know what that brings!


I could be wrong, but I don't think forest fire soot goes high into the stratosphere. I think it takes a major volcanic eruption to shoot particles up that high. I defer to Dark Snow Project on the Greenland thing:

Link
No way! LOL did anyone look at the CMC Today? :P this would be funny...... Ex Erika






18Z GFS

18Z NAM


It's a NPS station, here's another one they have in the backcountry, that's similar elevation (http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=MWONA2). They're not very accessible and have solar power, no power lines are in the park. This was outside Eielson at the base of Mt. Denali which is only open to special buses for a few months in the summer. The station was working earlier, let's hope it gets fixed before the park closes in a couple weeks.

Thanks, Lauren. It's great to have another Mod in the SF area. Welcome to the crazy world of WU!
It looks like Fred found some moisture and has begun a nice-looking blow-up near the COC. Maybe he'll make it across the ocean in time to pick up Erika's disheveled discards and make use of them and the Gulf Stream to bring some excitement to the Southeast.
Gotta say ... lots a wx related laughs on here this afternoon, between the CMC's fantasy ex-Erika and the future Fred of the Americas .....
Quoting 58. georgevandenberghe:



It almost never makes it to the stratosphere. It is stopped by the tropopause, the inversion at the top of the troposphere. Only intense convection and very strong volcanic eruptions (and nuclear weapons) produce sufficient heating or upward motion to drive particles into the stratosphere . Many smoke plumes stabilize somewhere in the upper troposphere below the tropopause (and passenger jet flight levels) and then get carried around by winds aloft until they slowly settle out or (often) get rained out. Once smoke or other particulates get into the stratosphere though they can stay for many months to several years.



And all it would take is one near-miss comet or meteor to shave off a length of our Atmos - like an eggplant peeling - to change our WX for 5 years. Very delicate, we are... and 'protected'.
Quoting 66. CaneFreeCR:

It looks like Fred found some moisture and has begun a nice-looking blow-up near the COC. Maybe he'll make it across the ocean in time to pick up Erika's disheveled discards and make use of them and the Gulf Stream to bring some excitement to the Southeast.

The way Fred is heading, he could swing round a bit more and get into the Canary Islands area, or even onto the coast of Morocco.
Then again he may just dissipate like a lot of posters on here when the Atlantic activities fade away.
Quoting 3. redwagon:

TS Lee, on Sept 2, 2011, helped set Texas on fire with his hot, dry winds NW whipping up scorched earth and blowing resulting fires South with 100+ mile smoke plumes. Today Centex is exactly as vulnerable, having plunged back into drought with no measurable rain since mid-July.

You have the added problem, that with the earlier rains the undergrowth and scrub will be very high and also very dry now.
Its a case of one spark and a bit of wind and you could end up with a firestorm.
Very little surface moisture and dry scrub in September is a bad combination.
Quoting 24. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.

Beautiful day in Soo Cal....82 degrees and 10% humidity at mi casa!


Can't beat this for SUMMER weather in Soo Cal! It's usually much warmer than this at my place.

Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 02 Sep 3:24 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 02 Sep 3:10 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
02 Sep 3:10 pm PDT 83 46 27 NW 6G12 OK
Quoting 54. AldousHux1:

let us consider a little-discussed effect of widespread forest fires and extended seasons therefor: soot from northwestern fires rising very high into the stratosphere (or wherever they may go up there) and then getting carried north, north, and east to eventually settle on ice-covered areas such as, oh, I dunno- sea ice around the North Pole, or glaciers in Greenland maybe? thus reducing the planet's albedo and making the ice melt that much faster...

and we all know what that brings!


Yes, A Brave New World.
Quoting 68. redwagon:



And all it would take is one near-miss comet or meteor to shave off a length of our Atmos - like an eggplant peeling - to change our WX for 5 years. Very delicate, we are... and 'protected'.
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



Isn't every day a beautiful day in So Cal? lol


Had a few heat waves thus far this summer but overall.......it's been cooler than normal and ggggrrrreeeeaaaaaaaaaat!
Quoting 64. SFLWeatherman:

No way! LOL did anyone look at the CMC Today? :P this would be funny...... Ex Erika






18Z GFS

18Z NAM





Them Cape Verde seeds DO NOT want to die!
Seems like the models really don't know what to do with Ex -Erika's leftovers. It will be interesting to see what the circulation does once she gets back over open water.
Hey lookie here the Ghost of Erika:

... A storm with the potential of developing funnel clouds will affect
coastal Volusia County...

At 630 PM EDT... a storm with the potential of developing funnel
clouds was over Daytona international Speedway... or near Daytona
Beach... moving southeast at 5 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach... Port Orange... Ormond Beach... New Smyrna Beach and
South Daytona.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief... small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Lat... Lon 2929 8106 2921 8102 2921 8101 2920 8102
2920 8101 2912 8098 2912 8096 2914 8096
2914 8098 2915 8097 2915 8098 2916 8098
2929 8105 2928 8103 2909 8093 2898 8104
2916 8120 2930 8107
time... Mot... loc 2230z 309deg 7kt 2919 8108

Lascody



who knows where the leftovers end up. plenty of spin
Quoting 72. Grothar:



Yes, A Brave New World.

Or Paradise lost!
Heaven and Hell.
Quoting 37. FunnelVortex:



I feel the need to go out and plant trees now


Can't have too many trees IMO.
Quoting 64. SFLWeatherman:

No way! LOL did anyone look at the CMC Today? :P this would be funny...... Ex Erika






18Z GFS

18Z NAM





A rare Georgia landfall would make her all the more unique.
Three models show development by Africa early next week. GFS,Euro, and CMC
Quoting 8. win1gamegiantsplease:

Vandaag is de warmste dag van het schooljaar tot nu tot.



My vote is hurriphoon


Or Tropicane Cyphoon or Tropiphoon Cycane or Hurrical Tycane of Typhical Hurcone or... :)
Erika enjoyed her trip to North America so much now she want's to make a return trip to Africa.
Human CO2 Emissions to Drive Key Ocean Bacteria Haywire, Generate Dead Zones, Wreck Nitrogen Web

Trichodesmium. It’s the bacteria that’s solely responsible for the fixation of nearly 50 percent of nitrogen in the world’s oceans. A very important role for this microscopic critter. For without nitrogen fixation — or the process by which environmental nitrogen is converted to forms usable by organisms — most of life on Earth would not exist.

Now, a new study produced by USC and the Massachusetts-based Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), has found that human carbon emissions are set to drive this essential organism haywire. Forcing evolutionary changes in which the bacteria is unable to regulate its growth. Thus generating population explosions and die-offs that will be very disruptive to the fragile web of life in the world’s oceans.


Link
Quoting 45. Tazmanian:




there is no Erika why do you guys calling it Erika its ex Erika has there is no more Erika
Just to bug you Taz.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands Thursday or Friday. Conditions appear conducive for slow development over the weekend as the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$ Forecaster Beven
Quoting 81. HurricaneAndre:

Three models show development by Africa early next week. GFS,Euro, and CMC
Post one of the runs..

Well hi there LOL
The wave mentioned in the 8:00PM TWO is forecast to move out north of Cabo Verde, while the Euro takes it further south of the islands.

Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am done end of the day its warm
104 here feel like temp 87.8 air
please send help in form of cold air


That's not a haiku
Quoting 15. win1gamegiantsplease:



You're probably thinking of Dennis, one year after Bonnie:



Along with cold air behind the trough that picked up Floyd, helped set the stage for massive flooding.

Didn't Hurricane Betsy do that also -I think in 1965?
Quoting 25. HurricaneHunterJoe:



How goes it Ped? Nice day huh?


86.4F and 41% humidity....
.... Labor Day Hurricane of 1935...Link

Quoting 90. TallyMike:


Didn't Hurricane Betsy do that also -I think in 1965?


Looks like it! Little before my time though.

Ancient Cold Period Could Provide Clues About Future Climate Change

AUSTIN, Texas — Researchers at The University of Texas at Austin have found that a well-known period of abrupt climate change 12,000 years ago occurred rapidly in northern latitudes but much more gradually in equatorial regions, a discovery that could prove important for understanding and responding to future climate change.

The research, published Sept. 2 in Nature Communications, focuses on the Younger Dryas, a cooling period that started when the North Atlantic Current, an ocean current, stopped circulating. The event caused Earth’s northern hemisphere to enter into a deep chill, with temperatures in Greenland dropping by approximately 18 degrees Fahrenheit in less than a decade.


Link

“Sea ice around Greenland acts as a ‘switch,’ causing that region to respond more quickly than the rest of the planet does by insulating the air from heat stored in the deep ocean,” said Yuko Okumura, a UTIG research associate and a co-author on the study.
Quoting 92. hydrus:



Florida Keys Memorial, view of park; plaque in foreground.... Labor Day Hurricane of 1935...Link


I clicked it, went to Dr. M's first ever entry. Still cool.
Quoting 88. dfwstormwatch:


Well hi there LOL


That's the Canadian, so expect that to retrograde through the Florida Straits, intensify, and slam Myrtle Beach as it knows it wants to.

GFS Model


Fred appears to have found a sweet spot for now
Seeing the tracks for Dennis and Betsy brings to mind to some other interesting(confused, drunk, both?) tracks

Kyle, 2002


Nadine, 2012

100. NNYer
Quoting 78. PlazaRed:


Or Paradise lost!
Heaven and Hell.


Gone With The Wind!

Sorry - so lame, but had to throw it out there!

CMC Model

EURO Model
Quoting 88. dfwstormwatch:


Well hi there LOL


Good ol' Constantly Making Cyclones, back to its old tricks.
Quoting 99. Stoopid1:

Seeing the tracks for Dennis and Betsy brings to mind to some other interesting(confused, drunk, both?) tracks

Kyle, 2002


Nadine, 2012


Where did Kyle start.
Quoting 103. TimSoCal:



Good ol' Constantly Making Cyclones, back to its old tricks.
Well the euro had it a couple times and gfs too. The cmc may be up to something
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



Isn't every day a beautiful day in So Cal? lol


I guess it all depends on opinion, I lived in SoCal for a year, it was too expensive and the weather got boring. But to each their own, some people love it, and that's fine too.
New study reveals the possibility of hurricanes %u2018unlike anything you%u2019ve seen in history
A strong Category 3 hurricane could cause a nearly 37-foot storm surge in Tampa, Fla.
Link
%u2019Link
Quoting 104. HurricaneAndre:

Where did Kyle start.


In the central Atlantic. It became extratropical off the coast of Virginia.


tropical storm got some t.storms back!!
Quoting 81. HurricaneAndre:

Three models show development by Africa early next week. GFS,Euro, and CMC
Just to either fizzle out out or go ots..... why even bother
2015 season is gone never happened we saved alot of lives and damage.... 2016 wont be bad either
Quoting 111. neverhappensinflorid:

Just to either fizzle out out or go ots..... why even bother
For entertainment purposes.
its back!! TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands Thursday
or Friday. Conditions appear conducive for slow development over
the weekend as the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


watch out i see the black low!!


watching!!
Quoting 103. TimSoCal:



Good ol' Constantly Making Cyclones, back to its old tricks.
At least it has the storm off Alabama and gives the Carolinas, victims of CMC forecasted cat 3 Erika, a break....
Quoting 112. neverhappensinflorid:

2015 season is gone never happened we saved alot of lives and damage.... 2016 wont be bad either
People are not going to think highly of you if you persist in posting foolish things.
120. 882MB
Quoting 104. HurricaneAndre:

Where did Kyle start.


In the open Atlantic my friend.
Ex-Erika about to reenter the Atlantic.

Jeez what a tenacious circulation.
8 1/2 hours nd only 121 entries. We should be ashamed of ourselves.

Looks like some development in the Gulf, and our little friend still hanging on. There should be a pressure fall in the Gulf and off the east coast in a few days.

Remember, this is not a cyclogenesis map or a forecast map, just an anomaly map


Central Atlantic

Quoting 122. Grothar:

8 1/2 hours nd only 121 entries. We should be ashamed of ourselves.

Looks like some development in the Gulf, and our little friend still hanging on. There should be a pressure fall in the Gulf and off the east coast in a few days.


I spend a ridiculous amount of work time during the season looking at what u guys come up with. I've learned quite a bit actually. So we are coming into a more active time for the gulf?


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers has formed several hundred
miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds could become
favorable for some development of this system over the weekend
while it drifts slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


Told y'all CONUS would make short work of that EPAC cyclone.
130. bwi
Thanks to the magic of the Internets, these sorts of great lectures are available to ordinary weather watchers.
Jim White's INSTAAR keynote at the 2014 AGU meeting on Abrupt Climate Change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZdhPnsp4Is

getting ready for a shower again :)
leftover e is more circular
133. FOREX
Quoting 132. islander101010:

leftover e is more circular
Is everyone afraid to say Erika because of taz? lol
Quoting 125. Grothar:


Quoting 131. stormpetrol:


getting ready for a shower again :)


Big time light show this evening !. Raining now. Went outside under the eves to get a good look and a big Cayman Racer snake ran up by my feet. Scared the @#$%^& out of me LOL.
Quoting 126. Grothar:

Central Atlantic




That blob with the white spots looks suspicious!
Out for tonight.
Quoting 134. hurricanes2018:


Still looks like a hurricane.
Speaking of forest fires, I came across an article about fire-resistent trees which could prove useful for helping to combat the spread of the fires in the future:

Enigma of the trees that resist wildfires


Spanish scientists Bernab and Jos Moya couldn't believe their eyes.

More than 20,000 hectares of forest were charred. But in the middle of the devastation, a group of cypresses was still standing tall and green.When a fire swept through an experimental plot in Andilla, in the Spanish province of Valencia in 2012, it gave researchers the perfect opportunity.

The plot, which was part of CypFire, a project financed by the European Union, was established during the 1980s to test the resistance of more than 50 varieties of Mediterranean cypress to a pathogenic fungus.

After the fire event of 2012, it also provided further anecdotal evidence of the peculiar resilience of the species in the face of fire.

Botanist Bernab Moya and his brother, environmental engineer Jos Moya, both from the department of monumental trees in Valencia, had been involved in the project for several years.

"On our way to what we knew would be a Dante-esque scene during that tragic summer, we felt deep sadness at the thought of losing a plot of such value to the conservation of biodiversity," Bernab Moya told BBC Mundo.

"But we had hope that perhaps some of the cypresses had survived."

"When we got there we saw that all the common oaks, holm oaks, pines and junipers had completely burnt. But only 1.27% of the Mediterranean cypresses had ignited."


If you want to read more here's the link to the BBC article - Link

The research paper can be found here for those who may have access or deep pockets. :)

Thought it was quite an interesting read (especially as it pertains more so to my area of science - biology).
Quoting 123. Grothar:


Let's go low rider.
145. FOREX
Quoting 144. unknowncomic:

Let's go low rider.
What's the shear and overall conditions to the west?
146. MahFL
Quoting 64. SFLWeatherman:

No way! LOL did anyone look at the CMC Today? :P this would be funny...... Ex Erika


From JAX NWS :

"WHILE WEAK LOW PRES MEANDERS SOME 200
MILES OFF THE NE FL COAST"

Quoting 145. FOREX:

What's the shear and overall conditions to the west?
Plenty of dry air and shear at 45w. That will need to change for development potential rising.
148. FOREX
Quoting 147. unknowncomic:

Plenty of dry air and shear at 45w. That will need to change for development potential rising.
Quoting 142. HurricaneAndre:

Still looks like a hurricane.


Will be a hurricane again, look:
Hurricane IGNACIO
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 03, 2015:

Location: 27.1°N 159.0°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

Quoting 146. MahFL:



From JAX NWS :

"WHILE WEAK LOW PRES MEANDERS SOME 200
MILES OFF THE NE FL COAST"


Certainly has happened before where a low meanders and then turned back towards the coast and strengthens. I think this low will follow Fred out to sea though.
Convection catching up with naked swirl

Big discussions on this last night and this morning. The steering currents are very weak in the area, so it may remain there for a few days.


Trofi-ness'

Quoting 127. Sandcat:

I spend a ridiculous amount of work time during the season looking at what u guys come up with. I've learned quite a bit actually. So we are coming into a more active time for the gulf?


The Gulf might be active later this week. We have a few weeks left in the Cape Verde season. Don't take your eyes off of anything that even looks like a blob.
SouthEast Emg Mgt channel,,,NWS NOLA

Ping'

Stand down all groups.

Decision support...
dss code....green.
Deployed...none.
Activation...none.
Activities...none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused watch/warning/advisory
issuances; radar support
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk severe and/or direct
tropical threats; events of National significance

&&
Quoting 46. moyerdestroyer:



It's a NPS station, here's another one they have in the backcountry, that's similar elevation (http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=MWONA2). They're not very accessible and have solar power, no power lines are in the park. This was outside Eielson at the base of Mt. Denali which is only open to special buses for a few months in the summer. The station was working earlier, let's hope it gets fixed before the park closes in a couple weeks.


Hey, what is this monkey business.... moyerdestroyer?
Quoting 153. Grothar:

Big discussions on this last night and this morning. The steering currents are very weak in the area, so it may remain there for a few days.





What do you think about it hooking back around and across the state?
159. FOREX
Quoting 158. GatorWX:



What do you think about it hooking back around and across the state?
Only if there is a Gators home game.


Let us take a moment to remember the 500 or so people who were killed 80-years ago today down in the middle Florida Keys during the Great Labor Day Hurrricane of September 2, 1935. That storm produced winds just over 200-MPH and a 18-foot storm surge which knocked over the Florida East Coast Train which was sent to rescue the WW-1 vets working on the new overseas highway. No one in the train was killed however many local civilans and close to 260-vets died during the storm.
Quoting 159. FOREX:

Only if there is a Gators home game.

Haha
Q: Pat

That's the biggest BTFO of TX and LA push I've seen out of nowhere. Not forecasted in my neck!


The Train that the 18-foot storm surge knocked over during the Great Labor Day Hurricane of September 2, 1935
Quoting 159. FOREX:

Only if there is a Gators home game.


Or Labor Day weekend.... Ugh... 50-60% chance of rain Sat-Wed. We are playing NM St. Slopfest or not, should be an easy one.


What was left of the Matacombe Hotel after the 1935 Labor Day Storm. Several people survived the 200-MPH winds in this building.
168. MahFL
Quoting 158. GatorWX:



What do you think about it hooking back around and across the state?


Steering should take it to New Orleans :

169. FOREX
Quoting 164. GatorWX:



Or Labor Day weekend.... Ugh... 50-60% chance of rain Sat-Wed. We are playing NM St. Slopfest or not, should be an easy one.
My Boise State Broncos are at home against Washington Huskies. Boise needs a QB badly if the gators have one they don't need.
Oldest survivor of San Francisco earthquake of 1906 dies Ruth Newman was the last person to remember the San Francisco earthquake; she was 5 when it happened. Only one survivor left; she was 3 months old.
Quoting 167. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's abridged selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.


Mmmmmm... Science! :)
1944 anti-forest-fire poster

Just posted a blog update on the Atlantic tropics. It looks like Fred is tapping into warmer waters and should be with us a bit longer than previously thought. I also have an update on the surface trough offshore of the eastern US and the tropical wave about to emerge from Africa.
175. FOREX
The orange crayon has been used on the 2am 5 day Atlantic outlook.
Quoting 136. kmanislander:



Big time light show this evening !. Raining now. Went outside under the eves to get a good look and a big Cayman Racer snake ran up by my feet. Scared the @#$%^& out of me LOL.



OMG i am so scared of snakes. Ive never heard of a cayman racer. Will have to look that up
ok looked it up and the reddish color looks like what was in my yard a couple years ago that no one can identify
Quoting 58. georgevandenberghe:



It almost never makes it to the stratosphere. It is stopped by the tropopause, the inversion at the top of the troposphere. Only intense convection and very strong volcanic eruptions (and nuclear weapons) produce sufficient heating or upward motion to drive particles into the stratosphere . Many smoke plumes stabilize somewhere in the upper troposphere below the tropopause (and passenger jet flight levels) and then get carried around by winds aloft until they slowly settle out or (often) get rained out. Once smoke or other particulates get into the stratosphere though they can stay for many months to several years.


I agree with what you say except that sometimes large fires can form pyrocumulonimbus clouds that can inject smoke into the stratosphere if they're big enough.
180. vis0
lets stick our toes in it and find out...oh wait we now have SST readouts...

or
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

1. A well-organized tropical wave will move off of the west coast of
Africa several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands
later today. Conditions appear conducive for gradual development
over the weekend and into early next week as the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


wow invest 91L will be here soon.
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Fred has made a slight resurgence since the previous advisory with
the development of a large cluster of deep convection in the
northeastern quadrant, including a narrow band of cloud tops colder
than -80C having persisted very near the partly exposed low-level
center. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a
blend of satellite intensity estimates T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30
kt from SAB, and T2.5/35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate has slowed slightly to 295/07 kt.
Otherwise, there remains no change to the forecast track or
reasonings mentioned in previous advisory discussions. A shortwave
trough currently moving off of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is
forecast by the global and regional models to dig east-southeastward
into the central Atlantic during the next 5 days, and gradually
erode the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge. This will
allow Fred to slowly turn northwestward in 48-72 hours, and turn
northward at 96 and 120 hours. The NHC guidance is in much better
agreement on this developing scenario compared to 24 hours ago. The
new official forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus models.

The GFS and ECMWF models are indicating that more than 30 kt of
westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear is affecting Fred. However,
this has not kept deep convection from redeveloping near the center,
at least for the time being. These strong shear conditions are
forecast to persist and even increase during the next 48 hours and,
when combined with increasingly drier mid-level air, should induce
gradual weakening within the next 12 hours or so. Fred is forecast
to weaken to a depression by late tonight or Friday morning, and
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. By 72 hours and
beyond, the remnant low is forecast to reach a more favorable
environment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear,
and increasing moisture, which suggest that there is at least a low
probability that regeneration could occur. As a result, the official
intensity forecast continues to show a remnant low through 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
187. MahFL
What happened to all the bloggers on here ?
The new tropical wave will have moist air ahead of it :





nice tropical wave need to be watch forinvest 91L soon


maybe invest 91L soon and the next tropical wave back of it
190. vis0
2 areas to occupy ones time while we wait...(unlss Seattle has another wind-o=-cane

NW-W GoMx & offshore of the SE

read times as i omitted frames in the 2nd half of the AniGif to save time so weather/swirls will appear as if they began to
move faster, nope just times between images are greater


Quoting 190. vis0:

2 areas to occupy ones time while we wait...(unlss Seattle has another wind-o=-cane

NW-W GoMx & offshore of the SE

read times as i omitted frames in the 2nd half of the AniGif to save time so weather/swirls will appear as if they began to
move faster, nope just times between images are greater





Ohhhh vis0, I see the swirls alright !!




How's about you take your mad animGif skillz & stitch us together Kilo's trek across the EPAC & WPAC.....nifty little long lasting storm there, eh?
Quoting 137. stormpetrol:



Wow! One got in my house a few months ago , but my 2 cats ran him out of hiding , anyways I finished him off with a machete and a pair of scissors to cut off his head, snakes are one the few things I kill, I love animals in general, but not snakes , they terrify me!


Grew sweet potatoes under black plastic years ago. Rats found them, unknown to me. Then snakes found the rats. When I lifted the plastic to harvest, there were many many large (almost 2 meter) snakes there and the ground was riddled with holes. Few or no rats left.

Quoting 137. stormpetrol:



Wow! One got in my house a few months ago , but my 2 cats ran him out of hiding , anyways I finished him off with a machete and a pair of scissors to cut off his head, snakes are one the few things I kill, I love animals in general, but not snakes , they terrify me!
Why kill a harmless animal, they were living their long before you .
Interesting. Nino 3.4 appears to be cooling. Most of the models have shown the peak SST for this El Nino occurring in October, so I'm surprised to see 3.4 trending down.



sure wont rule it out. if those leftovers redevelop will they get 90l or a new number?
what el nino? scott bailed. speaking of snakes.there are a mess around this area. never killed one because i hate rats. without them this island is a rat hole. what about the king cobra that got loose in orlando.? theres one i'd shoot dead.
my dog is a bit predator but when it comes to cats. he stands back. he likes chasing wild bunnys.
New INVEST on the way
Invest 91L soon maybe TS Grace

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
later today. This system has some potential for slow development as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Avila
If any potential INVESTS or tropical systems can develop away from the MDR in the Atlantic and get into the Southwest Atlantic, North of the islands, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Explosive development can be had. The Potential Energy that lies in this region is SICK!! SSTs near 90 or above and relatively low shear values can lead to an interesting September and perhaps early October. BUT its got to be away from the Caribbean and the Main Development Region in the Tropics
Re wildfires Visit the SoCAL National Forests and the problem is apparent, ie., 100 years of suppression. ironic since fire is a part of the life cycle, the Eastern Indians were good at forest fire management. Throw in extensive building in these areas, some with poor access for firefighters. the forest should eventually burn and recover but nobody wants to live next to a burned forest for a couple of decades during recovery.

on a lighter note, hit 62 degrees this morning in inland orange county and did not run the whole house fan last night. reminds me of Shrangri-La OC in the 1970s
Tropical Storm Kevin (14E) has organized quite impressively over the overnight hours:

7 hours ago:


Now:
Good Morning. Learning to read the NHC TWD-TWO before I post so I don't sound like an fool.......Anyway, the ex-Erika remnants/weak low are off the coast of GA/FL now and expected to drift SE towards the Bahamas. Something to keep an eye on over the next several days to see if we start to see a flare-up of persistent convection on the way down but will note that the area is being sheared from the North at the moment and that it has increased since yesterday....We were seeing about 10 knots of shear off Florida and the Bahamas for the past several days and over the past 24 hours, it has risen considerably:


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC TO 70W WITH A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING JUST
OFF THE SE COAST GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N65W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-
65W SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N47W ALONG 26N54W TO 24N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 46W-50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 27N BETWEEN 59W-69W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E ATLC IS
BEING INTRUDED BY T.S. FRED AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE BY SUN.



Quoting 205. Hurricane1216:

Tropical Storm Kevin (14E) has organized quite impressively over the overnight hours:

7 hours ago:


Now:

Looks almost like an eye lol
That new wave coming off the coast has plenty of moist air surrounding it, and it is moving slower than Erika!
Forest Fires contribute to a positive feedback loop. Trees and plant matter are large Carbon Sinks, if burned in great quantity or many acres can release the stored carbon back into the atmosphere. %% Million years ago started the Torrid age where methane sinks in the Forest and oceans were freed and released into the atmosphere due to positive feedback signals. In Summary, warming begets more warming, fires beget more fires, carbon begets more carbon AND METHANE AS WELL. 20-40 TIMES MORE POTENT THAN CARBON OVER A 100YR PERIOD. OH ITS TRUE ITS DAM TRUE
Here is a good view of Fred and the wave exiting Africa; about 5 days too early to know whether this wave will develop and whether it will move into the Central Atlantic or continue West across the basin. Have to see how the models handle this one:


Erika floater is back up.

Will note that this is a perfect example of why wind shear in any given location across the MDR is hard to predict beyond 24-48 hours. The area off of the coast of Florida and the Bahamas has had low shear (10 knot ranges) for the past two weeks and the CIMMS shear tendency chart, from yesterday (for the previous 24 hours) had the shear tendency dropping. Now 24 hours later today (from yesterday) we are up to the moderate range there.

Same type of thing that happened with Andrew in 92 in the same region (near the Bahamas); the weak storm was being impacted by moderate shear, which was reflected in the forecast for a low grade storm, then shear suddenly relaxed over this region between Saturday evening and Sunday, and the storm found a sweet spot over the Gulf Stream as well...............That sudden shear relaxation over very warm ssts became the forecasters nightmare for an unexpected RI event.

SAL is almost non existent.
Quoting 215. weathermanwannabe:

Will note that this is a perfect example of why wind shear in any given location across the MDR is hard to predict beyond 24-48 hours. The area off of the coast of Florida and the Bahamas has had low shear (10 knot ranges) for the past two weeks and the CIMMS shear tendency chart, from yesterday (for the previous 24 hours) had the shear tendency dropping. Now 24 hours later today (from yesterday) we are up to the moderate range there.

Same type of thing that happened with Andrew in 92 in the same region (near the Bahamas); the weak storm was being impacted by moderate shear, which was reflected in the forecast for a low grade storm, then shear suddenly relaxed over this region between Saturday evening and Sunday, and the storm found a sweet spot over the Gulf Stream as well...............That sudden shear relaxation over very warm ssts became the forecasters nightmare for an unexpected RI event.
You know what I have always been interested in, is trying to find computer model outputs ran on Andrew to see how they did on track and intensity. I'm pretty sure the GFS model was around back then or at least an older version of it. Be pretty neat to see what they were thinking and if we can get some old surface analysis and upper air charts.
Quoting 216. HurricaneAndre:


SAL is almost non existent.

I absolutely agree.
Quoting 218. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I absolutely agree.
Well, these next two huge waves have the best odds of becoming major threats to Florida and the U.S.
As of this morning, the CIMMS shear tendency chart shows increasing shear between Jacksonville and the Bahamas where the remnants are currently moving through: this reflects the increase which has occurred between yesterday morning and today.

221. MahFL
I believe this is Erkia's remnant still :



Quoting 211. weathermanwannabe:

Here is a good view of Fred and the wave exiting Africa; about 5 days too early to know whether this wave will develop and whether it will move into the Central Atlantic or continue West across the basin. Have to see how the models handle this one:



I wouldn't trust any models with this wave. We all know what happened with Erika.
A Team Of Unarmed Arctic Researchers Are Trapped By Hungry Polar Bears

With no other weapons at their disposal, a team of scientists is stuck on a remote research outpost in Russia’s far north as five polar bears patrol nearby.

Link
Quoting 220. weathermanwannabe:

As of this morning, the CIMMS shear tendency chart shows increasing shear between Jacksonville and the Bahamas where the remnants are currently moving through: this reflects the increase which has occurred between yesterday morning and today.


FLA is lucky again lol if that shear wasn't increasing Erika could have redeveloped as she moves south towards the Bahamas. Could have pulled an Ivan and impacted SE FLA
Quoting 219. Camerooski:

Well, these next two huge waves have the best odds of becoming major threats to Florida and the U.S.

I agree. Look at what Dr Phil klotzbatch said in regards to my question.
Comments: 9
3. Dr. Phil Klotzbach , Research Scientist
8:45 PM GMT on September 02, 2015
Quoting 1. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Interesting. Thanks. How do you think the Atlantic is doing in terms of named storms currently. How many more do you think we could see??? What is the current ACE INDEX???


The Atlantic has had six named storms so far, which compares with the average through September 2 of 5.4. However, ACE has been fairly low this year... 22 through September 2 which compares with the average to date of 36 - or about 60% of normal.
227. MahFL
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Erika floater is back up.


Wow they are actually calling it Erika too.
Quoting 207. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Learning to read the NHC TWD-TWO before I post so I don't sound like an fool.......Anyway, the ex-Erika remnants/weak low are off the coast of GA/FL now and expected to drift SE towards the Bahamas. Something to keep an eye on over the next several days to see if we start to see a flare-up of persistent convection on the way down but will note that the area is being sheared from the North at the moment and that it has increased since yesterday....We were seeing about 10 knots of shear off Florida and the Bahamas for the past several days and over the past 24 hours, it has risen considerably:


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC TO 70W WITH A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING JUST
OFF THE SE COAST GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N65W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-
65W SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N47W ALONG 26N54W TO 24N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 46W-50W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 27N BETWEEN 59W-69W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E ATLC IS
BEING INTRUDED BY T.S. FRED AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE BY SUN.






The area south of Jacksonville has lowering shear values per the map Camerooksi posted.
229. FOREX
Quoting 227. MahFL:



Wow they are actually calling it Erika too.
Tazz is not going to be happy.
Quoting 219. Camerooski:

Well, these next two huge waves have the best odds of becoming major threats to Florida and the U.S.


You might want to do some "off-blog" reading of some papers (as a new member) so you can better understand some of the dynamics of tropical systems. The NHC site has links to several good papers and research. Here is one example (related to you comment) from the NOAA Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones. These next two waves do not present a major threat to the US at this time:



A tropical wave is a trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. These
waves tend to reach maximum amplitude in the lower to middle troposphere and may or may not be
accompanied by thunderstorm clusters. Although there is still some debate on the issue, these
easterly waves are thought to originate or become amplified as a result of meteorological conditions
over the continent of Africa. Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the
tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any
significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally
weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Erika floater is back up.



I'm sure Taz will be glued to the chart and quivering with excitement.
232. FOREX
Quoting 231. PlazaRed:


I'm sure Taz will be glued to the chart and quivering with excitement.
The NHC better take down Erika's name before he wakes up.
233. FOREX
Finally, since Erika was a Cat 3 for one day, convection is firing up around her center.
Quoting 232. FOREX:

The NHC better take down Erika's name before he wakes up.

Too late, he never sleeps, just slips into a trance briefly!
6.30 AM in California for normal sleepers.
Quoting 232. FOREX:

The NHC better take down Erika's name before he wakes up.


The blog is back to wishcasting Erika? LOL. Whatever is left of that storm has no chance for development.
Come on now guys. Don't be surprised about Erika (YES!!! We can say her name again) :)

All you have to do is look back to last night and the past few days, and read a few entries.

By the way, this is what we called "Blobus Ohmyus" the other day. (Not an official name) And behind it, a yet to be named feature.

Quoting 216. HurricaneAndre:


SAL is almost non existent.


Thanks to Danny Erika and Fred for clearing it out
next step with our leftovers. invest
Quoting 230. weathermanwannabe:



You might want to do some "off-blog" reading of some papers (as a new member) so you can better understand some of the dynamics of tropical systems. The NHC site has links to several good papers and research. Here is one example (related to you comment) from the NOAA Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones. These next two waves do not present a major threat to the US at this time:



A tropical wave is a trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. These
waves tend to reach maximum amplitude in the lower to middle troposphere and may or may not be
accompanied by thunderstorm clusters. Although there is still some debate on the issue, these
easterly waves are thought to originate or become amplified as a result of meteorological conditions
over the continent of Africa. Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the
tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any
significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally
weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds
ye and 40 of them are never labled as threats...
241. FOREX
Quoting 235. tampabaymatt:



The blog is back to wishcasting Erika? LOL. Whatever is left of that storm has no chance for development.
Nobody wishcasting, just cool to see her remnants still on the NHC radar.
Quoting 241. FOREX:

Nobody wishcasting, just cool to see her remnants still on the NHC radar.


Interesting they put a floater back on it and yet no mention on the TWO.
The ECMWF seems to take more interest into "Ohmyus" than the GFS, albeit keeping it weak. Does track it in a northern trajectory compared to the Leewards.

Quoting 236. Grothar:

Come on now guys. Don't be surprised about Erika (YES!!! We can say her name again) :)

All you have to do is look back to last night and the past few days, and read a few entries.

By the way, this is what we called "Blobus Ohmyus" the other day. (Not an official name) And behind it, a yet to be named feature.




Blobus Ohcrapus
I believe this blog will go crazy by next weekend depending on where the wave that just came off Africa and the wave currently over Africa traverse.

Quoting 236. Grothar:

Come on now guys. Don't be surprised about Erika (YES!!! We can say her name again) :)

All you have to do is look back to last night and the past few days, and read a few entries.

By the way, this is what we called "Blobus Ohmyus" the other day. (Not an official name) And behind it, a yet to be named feature.


the next one is Blobus followus
erika wasnt a major danny took that honor. or do i got this mixed up?
Quoting 247. islander101010:

erika wasnt a major danny took that honor. or do i got this mixed up?


Nope that's correct
Quoting 244. rmbjoe1954:

I believe this blog will go crazy by next weekend depending on where the wave that just came off Africa and the wave currently over Africa traverse.




The one that just came off will go W

The one behind will go WNW

Also thre is one currently in front of the one that just coming off Africa

So
#1 is S of the CV Islands
#2 is about to exit the W coast of Africa
#3 is about to enter the W Africa area



And looking at the whole African satellite

Looks like another one behind #3
A tropical wave is expected to move off of the West Coast of Africa later today. This system has some potential for slow development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
$$
forecaster Avila

"Hurry Up & Wait"
Steering currents aren't really that strong near Erika floater. It may just move around for a day or two.
Quoting 236. Grothar:

Come on now guys. Don't be surprised about Erika (YES!!! We can say her name again) :)

All you have to do is look back to last night and the past few days, and read a few entries.

By the way, this is what we called "Blobus Ohmyus" the other day. (Not an official name) And behind it, a yet to be named feature.



Could be Blobus Sprawlius!
Not doing too badly for an El Nino year and now most of the SAL had dissipated, who knows?
TXNT25 KNES 031236
TCSNTL
CCA

A. 05L (ERIKA)

B. 03/1145Z

C. 31.2N

D. 81.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS......CORR DOE TIME...REMNANT CENTER HAS MOVED OFF COAST WITH
BANDING OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER WATER OF 3/10 FOR AND INITIAL DT=1.5. NO
MET BUT PAT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON


Link


Had lots of close lighting strikes 10pm SWFL - glad we are in the green, could have been a different story.

Quoting 226. Sandy82579:

I have to wonder exactly what Figure 6 above is trying to say. What exactly are we comparing the average annual temperatures to? What is the "Mean Annual Temperature Departure for Alaska (1949-2015)"? Is it the mean annual temperature departure from the average of 1949 through 2015? What temperature are we departing from? It doesn't seem very clear and it's not explained in the text. I also wonder if how they take these temperatures have changed over time like here in the continental U.S. NOAA has closed a lot of their remote rural weather stations due to budget constraints, with the remaining remote weather stations being close to major cities (heat sinks for us mechanical engineers). Probably skewing the results of these "average" temperature measurements.

In the paragraph below it also states, "Prior to European settlement, gigantic fires were part of the natural ecosystems across much of North America." That's a very true to statement. Prior to European settlement, the middle third of America, the great plains, would burn every summer releasing huge amounts of energy and CO2 into the atmosphere. Much more than is being released by the paltry fires we are seeing now. The great plains would dry out in late summer and eventually be ignited by a stray lightning bolt from a passing thunderstorm. That's where the fertile, rich, black soil that all farmers wanted came from.

Relax folks, the earth is slightly warming, is it totally because of our activities? Absolutely not. Astronomers are currently predicting another Maunder sunspot minimum and a possible mini ice age over the next 20 years.

The temperature goes up, the temperature goes down. It's totally natural and man is not totally to blame.

Another factoid, 93% of climate scientists get their funding from, wait for it, the government. No crisis, no funding.


You've awakened the kraken now
Quoting 242. Bucsboltsfan:



Interesting they put a floater back on it and yet no mention on the TWO.


They just may mention it on the next TWO
What is that I see?


Hmmm...

Pretty good pressure drop and wind shift at Grey's Reef.

Does it have to be an invest, or named system to NEVER be able to cross the gulf stream? Does a pre-invest qualify? I am still confused from last week.

/sarcasm off.
just curious, aren't we approaching the climatological peak of the Atlantic season this week?
Quoting 226. Sandy82579:

I have to wonder exactly what Figure 6 above is trying to say. ...snip... Relax folks, the earth is slightly warming, is it totally because of our activities? Absolutely not. Astronomers are currently predicting another Maunder sunspot minimum and a possible mini ice age over the next 20 years.

The temperature goes up, the temperature goes down. It's totally natural and man is not totally to blame.

Another factoid, 93% of climate scientists get their funding from, wait for it, the government. No crisis, no funding.
Clearly, Ignorance is bliss. Relax, folks, nothing to see here.
Look at all that warm water..Should be an interesting winter.





Quoting 251. Grothar:

Steering currents aren't really that strong near Erika floater. It may just move around for a day or two.
Good morning..That region has produced its share of storms..Not surprised if we bet something brewing..if not already.
Quoting 258. SavannahStorm:

Pretty good pressure drop and wind shift at Grey's Reef.


Where is this buoy at.
Quoting 260. ConchConvert:

just curious, aren't we approaching the climatological peak of the Atlantic season this week?


Next week technically
Quoting 264. HurricaneAndre:

Where is this buoy at.


It's about 20 miles east Brunswick, GA.
The ex-Erika remnant issue is going to be slow burn if any; back to the basics.............We need to see at least 48 hours of persistent convection (to help lower pressures below a normal t-storm event towards potential TD formation), and favorable shear levels (ssts are not an issue).................I would keep and eye on the buoys off shore for evidence of wind-shifting, air pressure, and a lower level vorticity as well as the WV loops for an idea of shear levels. Just my 2 cents. Ex-Erika remains a sheared mess for the time being but the convection is there (day 1) and moving way too fast for any type of potential organization at this time:

Quoting 226. Sandy82579:

I have to wonder exactly what Figure 6 above is trying to say. What exactly are we comparing the average annual temperatures to? What is the "Mean Annual Temperature Departure for Alaska (1949-2015)"? Is it the mean annual temperature departure from the average of 1949 through 2015? What temperature are we departing from? It doesn't seem very clear and it's not explained in the text. I also wonder if how they take these temperatures have changed over time like here in the continental U.S. NOAA has closed a lot of their remote rural weather stations due to budget constraints, with the remaining remote weather stations being close to major cities (heat sinks for us mechanical engineers). Probably skewing the results of these "average" temperature measurements.

In the paragraph below it also states, "Prior to European settlement, gigantic fires were part of the natural ecosystems across much of North America." That's a very true to statement. Prior to European settlement, the middle third of America, the great plains, would burn every summer releasing huge amounts of energy and CO2 into the atmosphere. Much more than is being released by the paltry fires we are seeing now. The great plains would dry out in late summer and eventually be ignited by a stray lightning bolt from a passing thunderstorm. That's where the fertile, rich, black soil that all farmers wanted came from.

Relax folks, the earth is slightly warming, is it totally because of our activities? Absolutely not. Astronomers are currently predicting another Maunder sunspot minimum and a possible mini ice age over the next 20 years.

The temperature goes up, the temperature goes down. It's totally natural and man is not totally to blame.

Another factoid, 93% of climate scientists get their funding from, wait for it, the government. No crisis, no funding.


Hear, hear.
Erika's wasting no time getting thunderstorms back.

vis photo? if there was no windshear erika would recover quickly. already looks close to td status
Quoting 216. HurricaneAndre:


SAL is almost non existent.


Great!
274. FOREX
Quoting 272. islander101010:

vis photo? if there was no windshear erika would recover quickly.
Seems to be moving SSE.
Quoting 237. wunderkidcayman:



Thanks to Danny Erika and Fred for clearing it out


But if it's not the SAL, then it's the wind shears ://
Ones ignorance is NOT equal to another's knowledge.

Quoting 240. Grothar:




Hopefully not another Danny or Erika once it gets close to the islands...
Quoting 276. Patrap:

Ones ignorance is NOT equal to another's knowledge.


There are people who go out of the way to see that its the other way around..Mornin Pat.
Morning over dere hydrus'

Flat sea, no wind, and not much sal :) Yes, it's september!

not even a X from nhc
285. FOREX
Quoting 282. CaribBoy:

Flat sea, no wind, and not much sal :) Yes, it's september!


What is that large grassy area in the middle of your picture, part of a high school?
286. FOREX
Quoting 283. islander101010:

not even a X from nhc
A floater but no X.
Quoting 285. FOREX:

What is that large grassy area in the middle of your picture, part of a high school?


Looks like a soccer field
You know I've heard of the convection chasing the center but never the center chasing the convection XD.
289. MahFL
Fred sure is a fighter, convection firing again at the center :

Quoting 90. OldLeatherneck:

We Need to Help Poor Farmers Prepare for Climate Change -- Starting Now

By: Bill Gates

A few years ago, Melinda and I visited a group of rice farmers in Bihar, India, one of the most flood-prone regions of the country. All of them were extremely poor and depended on the rice they grew to feed and support their families. When the monsoon rains arrived each year, the rivers would swell, threatening to flood their farms and ruin their crops. Still, they were willing to bet everything on the chance that their farm would be spared. It was a gamble they often lost. Their crops ruined, they would flee to the cities in search of odd jobs to feed their families. By the next year, however, they would return -- often poorer than when they left -- ready to plant again.

Our visit was a powerful reminder that for the world's poorest farmers, life is a high-wire act -- without safety nets. They don't have access to improved seeds, fertilizer, irrigation systems and other beneficial technologies, as farmers in rich countries do -- and no crop insurance, either, to protect themselves against losses. Just one stroke of bad fortune -- a drought, a flood, or an illness -- is enough for them to tumble deeper into poverty and hunger.

Now, climate change is set to add a fresh layer of risk to their lives. Rising temperatures in the decades ahead will lead to major disruptions in agriculture, particularly in tropical zones. Crops won't grow because of too little rain or too much rain. Pests will thrive in the warmer climate and destroy crops.

Link to full article in Huffington Post: Link



I applaud Bill and Melinda Gates for the efforts to improve agriculture in the poorest of poor regions of the world as well as their understanding of the threats of unmitigated AGW/CC. However, I'm not as optimistic as they are about the future.

I wish they would start using some of their billions $$ to mount a campaign publicly lambasting those politicians who claim that AGW/CC is a hoax!!
291. FOREX
Quoting 288. scCane:

You know I've heard of the convection chasing the center but never the center chasing the convection XD.
When she was in the Caribbean it was the opposite. Convection chasing the coc. lol.
Wind picking up a bit on the north side of ex-Erika.

Quoting 285. FOREX:

What is that large grassy area in the middle of your picture, part of a high school?


It's a soccer field
294. MahFL
Quoting 260. ConchConvert:

just curious, aren't we approaching the climatological peak of the Atlantic season this week?


Sep 10th is the peak.
Quoting 289. MahFL:

Fred sure is a fighter, convection firing again at the center :





The Cape Verde Genesis seed seems to always have the tenacity the June, July and early August others lack.


But looking to Her West, trouble is inbound for Erika's taught remans.


Quoting 287. tornadodude:



Looks like a soccer field

Or Football field who loaned somebody their goalposts and bleachers. Wow a floater on Erika!
Long way out, but welcome pattern change



That current nice burst of convection with ex-Erica is being fueled by the gulf stream location (looks like that core is right overhead or pretty close)................I would go out on a limb to say that if there was lower shear, and the mess was moving much slower, we would be seeing a potential TD or storm spinning up right before our eyes:


Hey, heyyy........lookie these here puurty storms firin' up over the gulfstream

And where is Grothar?
301. FOREX
Quoting 299. KuCommando:

Hey, heyyy........lookie these here puurty storms firin' up over the gulfstream


Would be nice if there was some model support, but haven't seen or heard any from anyone today.
Anyone notice the NHC has Fred requiring tropical characteristics next Tuesday? If it happens, that'd be something to see.
Quoting 277. CaribBoy:



Hopefully not another Danny or Erika once it gets close to the islands...


In a season such as this, don't bet on it.
304. FOREX
Quoting 300. weathermanwannabe:

And where is Grothar?

He was here earlier. I believe he is currently in a closed door meeting with the other Wise men in his County.
Let's hope the LLCoC doesn't pull up & park itself right over the gulfstream !!
Quoting 296. redwagon:

Ees futbol - hay gols en los terminos.
Quoting 233. FOREX:

Finally, since Erika was a Cat 3 for one day, convection is firing up around her center.


Cat what? What are you smoking?
308. FOREX
Quoting 307. HurriHistory:



Cat what? What are you smoking?
lmao. Heavily medicated.
It looks like the ULL is gonna be near Ericka's remnants soon. She's trying, but the odds are stacked against her.
Quoting 307. HurriHistory:



Cat what? What are you smoking?


3; guess you were somewhere else.
Quoting 300. weathermanwannabe:

And where is Grothar?

Quoting 304. FOREX:

He was here earlier. I believe he is currently in a closed door meeting with the other Wise men in his County.


Awww c'mon fellas.......you know "rip van winkle" is catchin' a little shut-eye !!
I predict that Grothar (after the meeting) is going to declare a GroCon "5" alert.......................
313. FOREX
Quoting 310. redwagon:



3; guess you were somewhere else.
Got her mixed up with Danny.
Quoting 309. ElConando:

It looks like the ULL is gonna be near Ericka's remnants soon. She's trying, but the odds are stacked against her.


If you believe the CIMSS chart below, that TUTT is just above ex-Erica (in close proximity) and helping the convective cycle (the dry sinking air from above mixing down on the periphery and helping with the baroclinic convection at the surface). Now we have to see if the TUTT follows her down and how much distance between them over the next 24. If ex-Erica is too close, it could choke off potential development, but at the right distance, it could help ventilate the system and allow some upper level outflow to develop as it drifts down. Gonna be a close call from what I can see on the WV loop:






91L likely.
316. MahFL
The L is back on the surface chart :



Quoting 313. FOREX:

Got her mixed up with Danny.
Yes, we did, Danny. Do you think Erika can cross the Gulf Stream in one piece? Will it retard or enhance her spinning up?
psssssst'

from the 8am TWD by the NHC

Atlantic Ocean

W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

320. MahFL
Quoting 317. redwagon:

Yes, we did, Danny. Do you think Erika can cross the Gulf Stream in one piece? Will it retard or enhance her spinning up?


The Gulf Stream always helps tropical cyclones, it's warm water, not winds, I think your confused.
321. FOREX
Quoting 317. redwagon:

Yes, we did, Danny. Do you think Erika can cross the Gulf Stream in one piece? Will it retard or enhance her spinning up?
I don't really know enough to give an opinion.
Quoting 320. MahFL:



The Gulf Stream always helps tropical cyclones, it's warm water, not winds, I think your confused.

That's been my understanding - ex. Andrew, but given her size I wasn't sure. There's a reason she got a floater.
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Quoting 301. FOREX:

Would be nice if there was some model support, but haven't seen or heard any from anyone today.


Reminds me Edouard 2002.

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
328. Wrass
Whops Beele the pic I saw was just reg build up. Ok that big shroom you sent is a shroom and not over fl. If so still not an anvil. Ok!!