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Erika Nears Puerto Rico with High Wind, Heavy Rain

By: Bob Henson 3:19 AM GMT on August 28, 2015

Still poorly organized--but already deadly, and growing in size--Tropical Storm Erika is likely to cause problems in Puerto Rico on Thursday night into Friday. At least four people were killed by mudslides in the wake of Erika’s passage over Dominica. The capital of Roseau, on the island’s southwest coast, was hard-hit with major river and street flooding. According to weather.com, Canefield Airport on Dominica received 12.64” of rain between 2:00 am and 2:00 pm EDT Thursday, as the island was struck by an intense blow-up of thunderstorms (convection) on the south edge of Erika’s ill-defined circulation. In a similar fashion, the typical nighttime intensification of convection could bring torrential rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Thursday night and Friday. In a local statement issued at 5:32 pm AST (4:32 pm EDT) on Thursday, the National Weather Service in San Juan called for widespread 4-8” totals across Puerto Rico and nearby islands, with up to 12” possible. Although the islands are in desperate need of rain to assuage an intense drought, Erika may deliver too much of a good thing.


Figure 1. NWS radar at San Juan, Puerto Rico, showed heavy rain from Erika just southeast of the island at 10:25 pm EDT Thursday, August 27. Overlaid is the location of Erika’s poorly defined center, as located by the National Hurricane Center at 8:00 pm EDT, together with previous locations (right) and the NHC-projected path (left). Image from the tropical tracking feature on WU’s Storm app.


As expected, persistent northwesterly shear kept Erika from intensifying on Thursday, with most of the storm’s convection shunted south and east of Erika’s center of circulation. At one point, a center of circulation was clearly visible beyond the northwest edge of the canopy of upper-level clouds associated with the convection--not a sign of a healthy tropical storm. Convection was redeveloping near this center on Thursday evening, though, and Erika’s overall circulation continued to expand in size, with outflow evident in most directions away from the northwesterly shear.


Figure 2. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Erika from the GOES-East floater satellite, collected at 0115 GMT Friday, August 27 (9:15 pm EDT Thursday). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

At 11:00 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center placed Erika’s center (perhaps a large center with several smaller swirls) at 16.6°N, 65.3°W, or about 135 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Erika was moving west at about 17 mph, a bit to the left of what had been predicted. If Erika takes the west-northwest tack still predicted for later tonight and tomorrow by NHC, its poorly defined center will nick the southwest corner of Puerto Rico early Friday and graze the northeast coast of Hispaniola later Friday. Such a track might result in only minor disruption to Erika’s intensity: the storm is not too tightly organized to begin with, and its large structure could help it recover fairly quickly once back over open water. However, if Erika continues on a more westward trajectory, it could spend much more time over the higher terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which could cause it to weaken into a tropical depression or open wave. Such a track could also produce devastating rainfall over these two nations.

Erika’s future
If Erika makes it into the Bahamas relatively intact--and that remains a very big "if"--we could be dealing with it for days to come. Conditions over the Bahamas will be quite favorable for strengthening, with sea-surface temperatures above 30°C (86°F) toward the northwest Bahamas. Wind shear is also projected to drop to the 10 - 20 mph range over the weekend. Erika’s fairly large size will tend to reduce its ability to spike or plummet in intensity within hours, the way Hurricane Danny did last week. However, depending on its eventual track, Erika may have at least a couple of days to gather strength over toasty waters with relatively light wind shear.


Figure 3. The NHC outlook for Erika issued at 11:00 pm EDT on Thursday, August 27.

Erika’s strength and track are increasingly difficult to predict beyond this weekend. If anything, computer models on Thursday offered an even broader long-term palette of possibilities for Erika than they did on Wednesday. The official NHC forecast from 11:00 pm EDT Thursday is consistent with the model blend from 1800 GMT Thursday, which was toward a position near the Florida coast (either just offshore or just inland) by Monday, with a general north-northwest motion thereafter. A weaker Erika would be steered more by lower-level easterly flow, perhaps moving over or near Hispaniola and on toward South Florida and up the peninsula as little more than a tropical storm. A stronger system would be more inclined to stay offshore, perhaps heading north through the Bahamas and toward the Carolinas as a Category 1 or stronger hurricane. The “early cycle” model guidance from 0000 GMT Friday, which adjusts model forecasts that were issued six hours earlier to account for more recent storm behavior, leans more toward the weaker, more westerly solutions. The 0000 GMT Friday run of the GFS model will incorporate extensive data on the steering flow around Erika collected on Thursday by the NOAA Gulfstream IV surveilliance aircraft.

It appears unlikely Erika will recurve sharply northeast, as upper-level ridging will become more pronounced across the eastern United States and the western North Atlantic as we move into early next week (see Figure 4 below). This means Erika could be a slow-moving, rain-dumping system wherever it ends up beyond the five-day forecast window. It’s important to keep in mind that roughly a third of all tropical cyclones tracked by NHC lie outside the five-day position shown in the forecast “cone”, which is based on average errors over time. Models may swing to the west or east and back again with every six-hour set of runs over the next couple of days, but the official NHC outlooks do an excellent job of smoothing out the inevitable swings from model to model and run to run. Tracking these outlooks over time will give you a very solid sense of how the model forecasts as a whole are trending. The bottom line for now: residents from Florida to North Carolina should be ready for the potential of tropical storm or hurricane impacts at some point during the next 5 to 7 days.


Figure 4. Evolution of the flow at 500 millibars, or about 19,000 feet (black contours) and that flow’s departure from the seasonal average (blue and orange tints) from the ECWMF model’s ensemble average produced at 1200 GMT on Thursday, August 27. Left panel is the starting point (1200 GMT Thursday); right panel is the 120-hour forecast for 1200 GMT on Tuesday, September 1, by which point the trough now aligned along the U.S. East Coast (blue tint in left panel) has been replaced by a sprawling ridge (orange tint in right panel) that would block any rapid northward motion of Tropical Storm Erika or its remnants. Image credit: Levi Cowan, www.tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 5. A multispectral (RGB) satellite image of Hurricane Storm Ignacio, collected by the GOES-West floater satellite at 0130 GMT on Friday, August 28. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 6. The NHC outlook for Ignacio issued at 11:00 pm EDT on Thursday, August 27.

Ignacio may threaten Hawaii early next week
Residents of Hawaii need to keep close tabs on Hurricane Ignacio, which was packing top sustained winds of 90 mph as of 5:00 pm HST (11:00 pm EDT) Thursday. Now located just under 1000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Ignacio is on a fairly straightforward west-northwest course that should continue over the next several days. Simply extrapolating Ignacio’s track would bring the hurricane very close to Hawaii by Monday or Tuesday. Hurricanes on such a course typically weaken before they reach the islands, traveling over surface waters near the threshold for tropical development of around 26°C (79°F). In this case, Ignacio is getting a boost from favorable upper-level conditions as well as unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, roughly 2°C (3.8°F) above average for this time of year. NHC intensifies Ignacio to just short of Category 3 strength by this weekend, then gradually weakens it starting on Monday. The official forecast calls for Hurricane Ignacio to pass about 100 miles north of Hilo on Tuesday as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 80 - 90 mph. No hurricane has ever been officially recorded on the Big Island of Hawaii--the strongest event on record was Tropical Storm Iselle in 2014--so today’s forecast is noteworthy in itself. Beyond the five-day period, models are tending to bend Ignacio’s track slightly leftward, as upper-level ridging strengths to the north. The predicted steering currents and the very warm SSTs make Ignacio a force to be reckoned with, and all of the Hawaiian islands should take this hurricane seriously. Large swells will become a near-certainty over the next few days.


Figure 7. An infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Jimena, collected by the GOES-West floater satellite at 0130 GMT on Friday, August 28. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

Jimena may become a Category 4 powerhouse
On the heels of Ignacio, Tropical Storm Jimena is quickly strengthening, with sustained winds up to 70 mph as of the 11:00 pm EDT advisory on Thursday. Located almost 1000 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Jimena should be a hurricane by Friday morning as it moves steadily westward. Conditions are even more favorable for Jimena than for Ignacio, and satellite images already show a well-structured storm, with stout, far-reaching spiral bands and a tight core of intense convection already in place. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which quantifies the odds that a hurricane will grow quickly, shows a 50-50 chance that Jimena’s top winds will increase by at least 30 knots (35 mph) over the next 24 hours. The official NHC forecast rolls with this scenario, making Jimena a Category 4 hurricane by Sunday. It’s too soon to know whether Jimena will pose a threat to Hawaii, although it will remain well east of the islands for at least the next five days.

Jeff Masters will have our next update on Friday morning. See also Steve Gregory’s excellent overview of Erika, posted earlier this afternoon. Another WU contributor, Weather Channel hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross, weighed in today on why it’s crucial not to take any particular forecast for Erika as gospel at this point.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery


click image for loop

1002. MahFL
Florida Keys hit now....
1003. IKE
Landfall shortly with the way she is moving. 
Such a Strange Storm.
Bamm! This is exactly what I was talking about this morning possibly a track up western FL. This track rounding back into SW FL could be dangerous. That area can cause system to spin up quick!







Quoting 1002. MahFL:

Florida Keys hit now....


11am Track is to the west of most of the models:
1007. FOREX
Quoting 999. clickBOOM:


Did the cone stay exactly the same??
1008. wpb
Quoting 962. hydrus:

HWRF still wants to put a T.S. over S.E. Florida.


waiting for 11 am from nhc should have there gut if storm can survive from its current location across the high mountains hope there thoughts are relayed by the local media. seems its a ratings war just my observations. give praise to nbc6 in mia weatherman said other day wait to see after hispanola then action if needed.
1009. rxse7en
Quoting 993. kmanislander:

There are two vortices again competing for dominance within the overall gyre. There is a second centre which seems to be trying to organize to the WSW of the present centre being tracked. The HH just found a 1010 MB low there at 17 N and 69 W .

With the Northern centre so close to the coastline any disruption of it could see the WSW centre take over. In that event, a trek through the NW Caribbean becomes possible. This image is centred over the second low


Kman, just realized—after 9 years—that you probably have a British accent based on your spelling of "centre". I'm pretty quick, eh? Back on topic, the more northerly COC is trying desperately to build and wrap convection just prior to landfall and if that hold together, the path it's taking (and model-predicted) has her just missing the highlands.
Quoting 1002. MahFL:

Florida Keys hit now....


That's what i said this morning. I even told people to bookmark it.
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 69.4°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph



Looks WNW alright, ???????
Quoting 1003. IKE:

Landfall shortly with the way she is moving. 


Hey Ike. Hope you're well. Models keep shifting a bit west it seems. Could skirt up the west coast of FL. I wouldn't want to be on the east side of this. we've had sooo much rain already this year.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic this afternoon, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday
and Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Saturday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph
(64 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
NHC has Erika crossing Hispaniola highest peaks
If this track does verify up the spine of Florida (whether as a storm or remnant low), then Florida will have some major flooding between the storm and the trof as the whole mess slows down.

Sandbags are a good idea (as noted earlier) if you live in any flood prone areas in the State (and don;t forget to park your car on high ground too if this is an issue where you live). You should put this on the top of your list over the weekend.
1016. rxse7en
Quoting 1005. StormTrackerScott:

Bamm! This is exactly what I was talking about this morning possibly a track up western FL. This track rounding back into SW FL could be dangerous. That area can cause system to spin up quick!










Looks like the NHC chose the more southernly circulation as opposed to the one right off the tip of the DR.
1017. Cat5WPB
Quoting 945. FOREX:

What do you suggest they do, go to Sister Wanda, the Psychic down the street?


1018. RickWPB
11AM Discussion:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 281452
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of
Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the
effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of
40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt,
so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The central pressure based
on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb.

Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion
is a somewhat more confident 285/16. A generally west-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance
continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of
Erika. The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and
GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker
storm and lies on the left side of the envelope. An extra
complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt
the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform
somewhere northwest or west of the island. Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through
96 hours. The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than
six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the
previous track.

Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours. This,
combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should
weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a
tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Assuming the cyclone
survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which
could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall
on the Florida Peninsula. The new intensity forecast is an update
of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low
confidence.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and
mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.7N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
1019. Patrap
Quoting 993. kmanislander:

There are two vortices again competing for dominance within the overall gyre. There is a second centre which seems to be trying to organize to the WSW of the present centre being tracked. The HH just found a 1010 MB low there at 17 N and 69 W .

With the Northern centre so close to the coastline any disruption of it could see the WSW centre take over. In that event, a trek through the NW Caribbean becomes possible. This image is centred over the second low




That battle has raged for 2-3 days now as the Shear having tilted the early column and the convection Blooming has always imparted a negative bow to the CoC. Now with it close to the DR Coast, the Wsw one may have the chance to dominate.

This is far from any solution as the initialization point is skewed.

We many need a bigger blog soon Kman.



Quoting 999. clickBOOM:


I don't know why the NHC is so persistant in pushing this immediately NW right after it continues to push west and west and west.  Every time since yesterday after they've adjusted to the new center recolation to the south of forecast points they then say immediate turn to the NW then progresses back to WNW.  I do not buy it.

What ever is left her after passing over the southern part of DR and Haiti will then get pushed into if not south of Eastern Cuba.

Quoting 1012. BobinTampa:



Hey Ike. Hope you're well. Models keep shifting a bit west it seems. Could skirt up the west coast of FL. I wouldn't want to be on the east side of this. we've had sooo much rain already this year.



I said people across Western FL better not let their guard down. Anything can happen Erika could be no more or she could be fast building hurricane aiming @ SW FL. Again this could be all or nothing on this track as its going to cross over 10,000 foot mountians.
Looks like I'll be heading home tonight instead of Wednesday. Really concerned about it being over that warm open water for so long before landfall in the Keys though.
Quoting 950. weathermanwannabe:

The lower level coc still appears to be just below the southern coast of Hispanola (or trying to reform there) and the topography of the coastline relative to the COC is probably helping keeping it together; but keeping the convection and the coc together once the land interaction starts further to the West will be more difficult:



I think your right! The one to the SW is a Eddy with the broad circulation center. The one by the tip of DR is about to make landfall. Could also stay on the NE side of DR instead of going over the mountainous terrain. Eastern DR is flat.
My take on this, this storm is going to do whatever it's wants to do. I don't care what the models say there just guides not a forecast. I do believe if it survives and crosses back into open water either in the Atlantic or the GOM it's going to intensify. The waters are very warm closer to home
Looks like the NHC did a compromise in the middle of the Broad Circulation
Quoting 1002. MahFL:

Florida Keys hit now....

Just what I need - been watching this track closely for the last few days since we are supposed to be leaving today for a trip to the Keys through Wednesday next week. Looks like we won't see much sun.

Does anyone know if the Keys evacuate tourists for TS or only for hurricanes?
Quoting 1022. ChillinInTheKeys:

Looks like I'll be heading home tonight instead of Wednesday. Really concerned about it being over that warm open water for so long before landfall in the Keys though.


Yup. The path Erika is predicted to take has had some of the strongest systems form and form fast. The aim back @ SW FL is concerning.
Quoting 973. zoomiami:



A declaration of State of Emergency puts certain assets into play. It does not mean they think the state will blow away. Its an administrative action that allows them to start staging areas, signal the increased threat, and begin preparations. It makes perfect sense to do this today, and not over the weekend. The cone states that South Florida could be affected on Monday morning.


Exactly. We have put our Phase 1 hurricane plans in place this morning at the local level, which means we are securing assets (gassing up our fleet and taking it higher ground), implementing our emergency contact procedures, conferencing with State officials, etc. Waiting until Monday would be irresponsible.
Quoting 1025. Accu35blog:

My take on this, this storm is going to do whatever it's wants to do. I don't care what the models say there just guides not a forecast. I do believe if it survives and crosses back into open water either in the Atlantic or the GOM it's going to intensify. The waters are very warm closer to home
highly doubtful, shear is way too strong for anything higher than a strong TS in the GULF and this isn't going east of FL.
Quoting 1020. ILwthrfan:


I don't know why the NHC is so persistant in pushing this immediately NW right after it continues to push west and west and west.  Every time it's adjust to the new center then an immediate turn to the NW then progresses back to WNW.

What ever is left her after passing over the southern part of DR and Haiti will then get pushed into if not south of Eastern Cuba.




Because of the approaching trof and current location of the ridge; getting into the Central Gulf of Mexico (vs. the East side close to Florida) is physically impossible.
Quoting 1007. FOREX:

Did the cone stay exactly the same??


Looks like it has shifted to the west but not by much.
Quoting 1009. rxse7en:

Kman, just realized%u2014after 9 years%u2014that you probably have a British accent based on your spelling of "centre". I'm pretty quick, eh? Back on topic, the more northerly COC is trying desperately to build and wrap convection just prior to landfall and if that hold together, the path it's taking (and model-predicted) has her just missing the highlands.


No British accent here, totally West Indian but we are a British Overseas Territory and use " the Queen's English " :-).

Not sure the Northerly low can survive the passage across Hispaniola with that high a pressure reading. I still expect there to be a high risk of the low and mid centres associated with that low to decouple. We can only watch and wait now to see how this all plays out.

Would it help if I spelt centre as "center" LOL
Hello all, long time no blog but considering the dates of today and tomorrow, I wanted to come on and say a few things.

My family stayed through Katrina. It was horrific. I live on the north side of lake P and it was horrible. I was 8 years old at the time, and I have nightmares on occasion about the whole ordeal. The storm was intense, but you don't understand the power of it until you see Everything changed In a matter of hours. Friends and neighbors homes were leveled. We did not get power for three weeks. Limited water and limited food and limited gas living in a house without electricity, security, or fundamental needs. Folks you don't know what you have till it's gone, and Katrina made me realize that from a young age. But I would like to say this: Katrina was awful, but I'm greatful I went through the experience. Katrina gave me a direction in life and sparked my passion in meteorology, so maybe one day, I can prevent somebody having to go through the same circumstances I went through.

Have a great day guys,
Wxh98

Ps Erika looks like trash:)
Quoting 1027. pvbeachbum:


Just what I need - been watching this track closely for the last few days since we are supposed to be leaving today for a trip to the Keys through Wednesday next week. Looks like we won't see much sun.

Does anyone know if the Keys evacuate tourists for TS or only for hurricanes?


Only hurricanes... Cat 1 for tourist and mobile homes, Cat 3 for locals not in mobile homes.
1036. IKE
Wait and watch situation. Read the update discussion. NHC is doing some dart throwing and it's understandable. 
1037. Patrap
Not to be a Debbile Downwer, but with such a path, and a strengthening Storm, its going to be a Emg Mgt Nightmare as to if and when to issue any evac's .

If your in the cone, or just out of it East and west, prep this weekend.

If you have a miss, you will at least have the goods for another.


Review your evac plans if in a Surge Zone now.

1038. rxse7en
What is with "ST" bloggers always demanding validation. Reminds me of ol' Stormtop.

Anyway, seems the NHC has chosen a new COC and I guess the current models, based on the earlier COC, are a wash?
1039. MahFL
Quoting 1007. FOREX:

Did the cone stay exactly the same??


No.
Quoting 1019. Patrap:



That battle has raged for 2-3 days now as the Shear having tilted the early column and the convection Blooming has always imparted a negative bow to the CoC. Now with it close to the DR Coast, the Wsw one may have the chance to dominate.

This is far from any solution as the initialization point is skewed.

We many need a bigger blog soon Kman.






Absolutely, Erika is a shrink's dream come true !
Quoting 1036. IKE:

Wait and watch situation. Read the update discussion. NHC is doing some dart throwing and it's understandable. 


NHC following the Euro now.
1042. OhNoLa
For those of you thinking Gov. Scott is overreacting by declaring a state of emergency, which is worse: declaring an unnecessary state of emergency or not declaring one and then having such a situation develop.
Have to leave the blog now. Back later.
Quoting 1031. weathermanwannabe:



Because of the approaching trof and current location of the ridge; getting into the Central Gulf of Mexico (vs. the East side close to Florida) is physically impossible.
The most likely scenerio I believe is that this will be nothing more than a TD when it gets close to FL, if it gets there.   Something needs to change in a hurry for it to have a chance.  Just way too many negatives in it's environment now and down the road to be able to wind up into something
1045. Patrap
Good to see you Ike,
Quoting 1035. ChillinInTheKeys:



Only hurricanes... Cat1 for tourist and mobile homes, Cat 3 for locals.

Thanks Chillin... am wondering if we should still plan to go or not. Daughter will be very upset if we don't... its the only vacation time she and her boyfriend in the Navy have.
1047. MahFL
Quoting 1027. pvbeachbum:


Just what I need - been watching this track closely for the last few days since we are supposed to be leaving today for a trip to the Keys through Wednesday next week. Looks like we won't see much sun.

Does anyone know if the Keys evacuate tourists for TS or only for hurricanes?


Hurricanes, but remember there is not much difference between a 70 mph TS and a 75 mph hurricane.

Quoting 1042. OhNoLa:

For those of you thinking Gov. Scott is overreacting by declaring a state of emergency, which is worse: declaring an unnecessary state of emergency or not declaring one and then having such a situation develop.
Preparing for the worst is never over-reacting.  Go tell that to those down in Dominica. They had no warnings issued what so ever on this. 

Even if the storm down grades it will be a heavy rain maker on parts of FL that have had a tough spring and early summer with high rainfall amounts.
Calm down people is only a tropical storm rain and little wind , not a hurricane category 5. The rain is welcome after the severe drought in the area.
The computer models seem to need a tweak to deal with weak systems or with an el niño present because they have been pretty bad with TS Erika. They have been constantly trying to move Erika in a more northwest path, and it just keeps going west-northwest.
Quoting 1047. MahFL:



Hurricanes, but remember there is not much difference between a 70 mph TS and a 75 mph hurricane.


Good point... daughter is so bummed she is not even getting out of bed.
1052. Patrap
If you have a elderly friend or someone who is disabled, ask if they have plans or family near.

Everyone may not be aware of the Storm or the cone at this time.

Help one another, as it's good medicine for all.
Quoting 1047. MahFL:



Hurricanes, but remember there is not much difference between a 70 mph TS and a 75 mph hurricane.


Well I imagine the fishing, diving & watersports will be shut down by late tomorrow at the latest... The bars will be open though.
Quoting 1005. StormTrackerScott:

Bamm! This is exactly what I was talking about this morning possibly a track up western FL. This track rounding back into SW FL could be dangerous. That area can cause system to spin up quick!










I thought you said east coast of Florida yesterday? Anyways...the exact track still depends on how she looks exiting Haiti and how much better organized she gets into Monday. A stronger system will move up just east of florida, a weaker system will move into the GOM.

My best guess in 3 days is that we will have a TS in the extreme SE GOM moving NNW or N slowly off Marco Island and SSW of Ft Myers...but it's a guess till we see what she does thru saturday night
Does anyone here really believe the storm could survive a track through the NW Caribbean? As for that track up the west coast of Florida ( With all due respect STScott) that area is known as the graveyard of hurricanes, unless they are already intense when the pass through the keys i.e. Donna, the 1935 Labor Day storm, and others of extreme intensity when they enter the straits.
On this current track, the east coast could get a nasty impact from Erika since it appears the east side of the storm is the nastiest (which is typical). I really hope people don't put too much emphasis on where it makes landfall.
Quoting 931. Patrap:

10 years ago this Hour,

They were all gone my family, evacuated . I was alone with Nova and Sassy.

Katrina was out there and coming. It was a physical presence, even 20 hours now from landfall.

I had some more prep to get done, and that occupied me most of the day the 28th.


Very long time lurker here. I've never felt compelled to comment, but this struck a chord with me. I was 17 at the time, living in Ocean Springs, MS, and it's amazing to see someone else express the same feelings I had on the morning of the 28th.

Most of my family evacuated, but my Mom insisted on staying, and I couldn't leave her. Despite being there with her, with the rest of the family gone and a majority of the town evacuated at that point, the feeling of being alone was palpable. As you said, Patrap, you could feel her offshore, and it wasn't just the pressure drop. It was a strange, surreal feeling, and is one of the most vivid experiences of my early life. Little did we know, right?

I know we're dealing with a tropical system now, so I'll cut this short to get back on topic. Thank you all for the awesome coverage each and every year. Back into eternal lurk mode!
Quoting 1055. Look2thesky:

Does anyone here really believe the storm could survive a track through the NW Caribbean? As for that track up the west coast of Florida ( With all due respect STScott) that area is known as the graveyard of hurricanes, unless they are already intense when the pass through the keys i.e. Donna, the 1935 Labor Day storm, and others of extreme intensity when they enter the straits.


didn't Wilma go from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in like 36 hours in that area??
Quoting 1055. Look2thesky:

Does anyone here really believe the storm could survive a track through the NW Caribbean? As for that track up the west coast of Florida ( With all due respect STScott) that area is known as the graveyard of hurricanes, unless they are already intense when the pass through the keys i.e. Donna, the 1935 Labor Day storm, and others of extreme intensity when they enter the straits.


Broad circulation will still be intact.
Quoting 1044. ILwthrfan:

The most likely scenerio I believe is that this will be nothing more than a TD when it gets close to FL, if it gets there.   Something needs to change in a hurry for it to have a chance.  Just way too many negatives in it's environment now and down the road to be a wind up into something



Agree Erika needs to get out of the Caribbean at this point. It's possible the Eastern LLC could take over and she crossed eastern DR. It seems the convection is wanting to slide NW from that point.

Will check back in the late PM; the most interesting part of the whole ball of wax is not going to unfold until Saturday and Sunday as to whether the coc survives Haiti and/or is able to reform if it does open up.

The 11:00 am track update from NHC tomorrow morning (Saturday) is what folks in Florida need to take a close look at so that you can make the personal decision as to what supplies and/or preparation (remember the sand bags) that you may need to take on Sunday to protect your life-property.

Also remember the great rule of thumb; if the NHC track on Saturday evening/Sunday morning shows a tropical storm; assume and prepare for a Cat 1.
1062. MahFL
Quoting 1035. ChillinInTheKeys:



Only hurricanes... Cat 1 for tourist and mobile homes, Cat 3 for locals not in mobile homes.


Most people don't realise how big the Keys are. About 80,000 people live there, and there is only one road out. About 50 % of people never evacuate in the Keys.
Quoting 1056. FLMermaid:

On this current track, the east coast could get a nasty impact from Erika since it appears the east side of the storm is the nastiest (which is typical). I really hope people don't put too much emphasis on where it makes landfall.


I welcome the rain. I'm on the beach North of the Cape and we've been pretty dry all summer. Its weird. The storms never seem to be able to cross I95 this year.
1064. MahFL
Most people don't realise how big the Keys are. About 80,000 people live there, and there is only one road out. About 50 % of people never evacuate in the Keys. I have been to Key West.
Quoting 1060. StormTrackerScott:



Agree Erika needs to get out of the Caribbean at this point. It's possible the Eastern LLC could take over and she crossed eastern DR. It seems the convection is wanting to slide NW from that point.




Also remember the mountains can really play with these weak systems, Erika could bounce due north, or be pulled all the way around the south side of DR and Haiti toward Cuba. All depends.
Quoting 1058. BobinTampa:



didn't Wilma go from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in like 36 hours in that area??

The conditions, obviously, were waaay more favorable for Wilma..
Quoting 1030. ILwthrfan:

highly doubtful, shear is way too strong for anything higher than a strong TS in the GULF and this isn't going east of FL.

Quoting 1031. weathermanwannabe:


Because of the approaching trof and current location of the ridge; getting into the Central Gulf of Mexico (vs. the East side close to Florida) is physically impossible.

Well you know that current feature over the GOMEX is going to be gone with it's associated shear by the time the storm gets here?? Here's what Tallahassee says..
_________________________________________________ ________________________

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1000 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Short term [tonight through sunday]...

An elongated area of pv stretches from the northeast, through the
central Gulf of Mexico this morning. By tonight this area will
split into two anomalies: a more progressive wave moving off the
northeast coast and what will be a quasi-stationary wave over the
north-central Gulf. It won't be until Saturday night through
Sunday that this wave lifts through the southeast. At the surface,
ridging will prevail across much of the eastern half of the
country. Locally, the ridge will be quite disturbed due to the
upper wave.
Steering flow will generally have a south or
southeasterly component yielding a rather wet seabreeze regime
across the entire tri-state area. Like the ridge, the seabreeze
will be far from ideal and enhanced by the upper level anomaly.
Thus, pops will be higher than normal through the weekend
(50-70%). High pops and plentiful cloud cover will keep afternoon
highs anywhere from the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Overnight
lows will be in the middle 70s and not as pleasant as recent
nights as moisture surges back into the region.

Long term [sunday night through friday]...

The main feature in the extended range forecast will be what is
now Tropical Storm Erika. The eventual track will have a lot to do
with how Erika holds together as it moves across Hispaniola today.
The current track from NHC takes Erika south of the Bahamas before
curving it north along the immediate East Coast of Florida. A
concerning trend in the dynamical models is a westward shift in
the track. Both the 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring Erika into the eastern
Gulf, but diverge greatly with respect to timing.
There has been a
lot of back and forth between the dynamical models and a great
deal of uncertainty still exists. But, the potential for at least
some sort of impacts locally from Erika appears to be increasing
over the past 24 hours.
A track off the East Coast of Florida will
bring minimal rain impacts to the tri-state region, while a track
over the peninsula will likely bring a great deal of rain over the
Suwannee Valley, and a track into the eastern Gulf would mean the
potential for both heavy rain and wind impacts area-wide.
Due to
the uncertainty in this forecast and the latest trends, close
attention should be given to the forecast over the next couple of
days.
1068. Patrap
1057. rkbrown813
10:09 AM CDT on August 28, 2015

Thank you for those personal words on that day before.

The calamity that came to a region is best shared by these first person accounts.

It is a American Story, and we thank all who came to our collective rescue, to lend a hand in rebuilding, and for supporting us all, as we owe many a generous thank you.

The cornerstone of this comunnity here is and will always be, the sharing.
1069. NNYer
It's probably been mentioned a 100+ times, but wow, Hawaii has certainly seen a lot of tropical action in it's area this year.
Quoting 1064. MahFL:

Most people don't realise how big the Keys are. About 80,000 people live there, and there is only one road out. About 50 % of people never evacuate in the Keys. I have been to Key West.



The estimate for Wilma was that only 5 to 7 percent evacuated. Let's not forget that there were evacuation orders issued almost every weekend in 2005 before Wilma.
Quoting 1005. StormTrackerScott:

Bamm! This is exactly what I was talking about this morning possibly a track up western FL. This track rounding back into SW FL could be dangerous. That area can cause system to spin up quick!










Scott, you have been wrong about this storm about every step of the way with your predictions. The NHC is no better at this time. If you stop trying to predict a landfall location every update you wouldn't look so bad! We certainly appreciate your model posts but when it comes to pinpointing the exact landfall location maybe take a break for a while lol.
Weaker storm headed West, the Mets have been saying this for days.........
This is going to be a huge rainmaker either in FL, Northern Gulf, wherever......and a small chance it could spin back up into something nasty as far as wind and surge.
Quoting 1056. FLMermaid:

On this current track, the east coast could get a nasty impact from Erika since it appears the east side of the storm is the nastiest (which is typical). I really hope people don't put too much emphasis on where it makes landfall.
I could easily keep trucking west into the gulf and put east side of fl out of play
Sometimes I wonder about the national hurricane centre

Anyway it seems clear that the centre has either relocated further S and W or the centre redeveloped S and W of the last

But one thing I know the Center based on recon is not at 17.7N 69.4

And another thing how the bloody hell is it moving WNW when #1 recon is showing the opposite #2 even there own advisories disagree

Current
17.7N 69.4W
Previous
17.7N 68.5W
One before
17.7N 67.7W

So that is 0.0N and 2.4W I think I got that right
So if anything that W 270°

Quoting 1011. stormpetrol:

11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 69.4°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph



Looks WNW alright, ???????


Yeah I know right

Quoting 1009. rxse7en:

Kman, just realized—after 9 years—that you probably have a British accent based on your spelling of "centre". I'm pretty quick, eh? Back on topic, the more northerly COC is trying desperately to build and wrap convection just prior to landfall and if that hold together, the path it's taking (and model-predicted) has her just missing the highlands.


Really mate

First of there is no such thing as a “British Accent"
Within the United Kingdom there are many accents
Within England alone has may accents

He probably does but you do know that the Cayman Islands is a British overseas territory and the school system is mostly British based school system well it's mixed with the Caribbean school system (CXC) anyway so stuff like spelling words "British" would come naturally but Caymanians don't really speak it as an accent Caymanians I find have an accent that is unique to Cayman it's like a weak Scottish or Irish accent but more mixed with American and Jamaican

I speak with a weak Scottish accent well that's mainly because that where our family is from but mine is more scot mixed with American it's funny because when I got to America some people say I'm Scottish when I go to Scotland some people think I'm American and with some people it's vise versa
Still looks like 270 (maybe 275) to me...
Current TS watches on the NHC graphics don't make sense - showing watches for the Bahamas which are to the right out of the cone, and none for the Keys which are dead center in the cone...

Daughter extremely bummed and hiding under the covers...
Tropical Storm ERIKA
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2015
Location: 17.7°N 69.4°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
1079. nolajet
Quoting 1071. CapeCoralWx:


Really. It isn't as if the track is going to remain static until landfall, which makes me wonder why the celebration over the track change. It's like observing leaves fall from a tree and going nuts when a leaf finally hits the patch of ground that you've been staring at for an hour.
Little, by little , the wave at 13N around 37W is becoming gradually a little interesting... lets see , on this "Niño" year we are getting some "weak giants,, " some " strong Dwarfs", so who knows? Numerous surprises ahead...
1081. Grothar
Doc or Mr. Henson. We need you. Masters?? Doc Master???
Quoting 1072. nola70119:

Weaker storm headed West, the Mets have been saying this for days.........
Not all of the storms heads west are weak, if conditions are right it could ramp up as it heads west bound, look at Katrina it went the same path as this one
1083. FOREX
Quoting 1077. pvbeachbum:

Current TS watches on the NHC graphics don't make sense - showing watches for the Bahamas which are to the right out of the cone, and none for the Keys which are dead center in the cone...

Daughter extremely bummed and hiding under the covers...
I think the NHC is waiting to see how Erica looks when she exits the DR/Haiti before posting any more watches or warnings.
1084. NNYer
I haven't checked in for about a day, pretty big shift left on Erika's track! Is So FL still in need of rain? Good chance of getting some now!
Quoting 1072. nola70119:

Weaker storm headed West, the Mets have been saying this for days.........


The 1st place New York Mets??
1086. Patrap
1067. opal92nwf
11:14 AM EDT on August 28, 2015

Thanks; I live in Tallahassee and will be watching the forecast over the weekend carefully in case of a potential run at the Big Bend; I will post pictures on here next week if that happens (and keep all the cars in the garage as I am surrounded by Oaks in the meantime)......................... :)

Oaks have a tendency to hold lots of water in the branches and limbs and if we get tons of rain, followed by some TS wind gusts, the trees and branches routinely fall around here and do the most damage to homes and cars (and kill people).........That has been our usual damage MO for the Big Bend as opposed to structural damage which is more common to our West in the Panhandle when they get hit by a higher end storm.
Quoting 1084. NNYer:

I haven't checked in for about a day, pretty big shift left on Erika's track! Is So FL still in need of rain? Good chance of getting some now!


I think my county (Volusia) is the only one that needs rain besides S. FL. Somehow the thunderstorms this year just always die once they reach my area. Its like a shield....lol


this path keeps moving west every 6 hours
Quoting 1033. kmanislander:



No British accent here, totally West Indian but we are a British Overseas Territory and use " the Queen's English " :-).

Not sure the Northerly low can survive the passage across Hispaniola with that high a pressure reading. I still expect there to be a high risk of the low and mid centres associated with that low to decouple. We can only watch and wait now to see how this all plays out.

Would it help if I spelt centre as "center" LOL
The size of the wall of southerly winds to the east of the system leads me to think it may have the ability to traverse DR successfully. It's almost more of a broad trough than a tight closed low that needs sneak across. Once this gets enough latitude that southerly flow will pile enough air somewhere north of Cuba to give us a new center. Kinda cool to watch as usual...as tormenting as it is.
1091. Patrap
1092. NNYer
That's an awful lot of land to interact with in the current forecast path.
1093. luigi18
Just passed over my head a HH.....heading DR...
Quoting 1076. Kowaliga:

Still looks like 270 (maybe 275) to me...


Seems to be making that sharp turn now towards the NW, a little late , she needed to do it last night, southwest of PR to stand a chance for survival...
1095. wpb
there is a weather radar site on eastern dominican republic
however cant get link to work.
1096. luigi18
Quoting 1086. Patrap:


it look like PR has a shield or ''forces''.
1097. FOREX
Quoting 1087. weathermanwannabe:

1067. opal92nwf
11:14 AM EDT on August 28, 2015

Thanks; I live in Tallahassee and will be watching the forecast over the weekend carefully in case of a potential run at the Big Bend; I will post pictures on here next week if that happens (and keep all the cars in the garage as I am surrounded by Oaks in the meantime)......................... :)

Oaks have a tendency to hold lots of water in the branches and limbs and if we get tons of rain, followed by some TS wind gusts, the trees and branches routinely fall around here and do the most damage to homes and cars (and kill people).........That has been our usual damage MO for the Big Bend as opposed to structural damage which is more common to our West in the Panhandle when they get hit by a higher end storm.
I don't live that far from you. When the Erika drama is over I'd like to ask you some questions about your town and its restaurants. I've never been there.
1098. hydrus
Quoting 1091. Patrap:


The West Atlantic Cyclone Shredder...yeah baby....
1099. Patrap
1100. sigh
Quoting 1058. BobinTampa:



didn't Wilma go from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in like 36 hours in that area??

No. Wilma was nowhere near Florida when it became a Cat 5. It intensified slightly (from a Cat 2 to a Cat 3, about a 10-15% intensification) as it approached Florida.
Quoting 1081. Grothar:

Doc or Mr. Henson. We need you. Masters?? Doc Master???


Just write a really long thought out post Gro, then they will come.


starting to see a weakning tropical storm now
Good afternoon everyone,
Just a quick check in here to see what is going on before I have to leave again.
SE Fla needs rain but not 10+" in a few hours. If this storm goes to our west coast we will be on the heavy rain side, if it stays to our east coast most of us will not flood so much.
back in Aug 2012 Issac stayed to the west in the GOM but a train of rain band stayed over a portion of Palm Beach and Broward County for over 2 days and would not move. Our neighborhood was totally flooded for 3 days. Cops were at all the entrances to keep people who do not live here out. Only large trucks or large SUVs could get through the streets; of course we got out the boats and rafts and had a little fun once all the danger passed.
Keeping an eye on Erika, hope she falls apart. Lucky it appears to be more of rain event than heavy winds.

Oh Yes Happy WU Anniversary to ME! I was lurking all summer of 2005, but started posting in early August, and Paid my $5 Aug 28, 2005! I just noticed this !!! I still get to only pay $5 yearly.

I will check back a lot because I know the next 24-36 hours will give us more info.

Carry on and thanks for all the graphics and maps, models, etc... and for your thoughts.

1104. MahFL
Quoting 1069. NNYer:

It's probably been mentioned a 100+ times, but wow, Hawaii has certainly seen a lot of tropical action in it's area this year.


We have a Strong El Nino, that's why.
1105. Patrap
The new post will be up soon, as they have a lot of writing and graphics to put in.

It takes work to do a good concise important entry.

1106. RevInFL
Titusville, FL has seen enough rain this summer but I would rather have that than the terrible drought we had in 1998. Erika has been tricky to track for sure. Our county has started giving out free sandbags for people who are in flood prone areas.


I don't buy the more southern center.

Time for this to go *Poof* in the mountains...

Link
1109. Patrap
Rainbow loop with Lat and Long Lines muted.

Prior to Wilma in 2005, NHC posted hurricane warnings up and down the west and east coast of South Florida at 11pm on Saturday evening. Wilma did not make landfall until Monday morning. I put my shutters up in Miami for Wilma because we were under a hurricane warning and the NHC discussions were talking about how large the circulation was. Wilma became a Cat 3 on approach to southwest Florida. I learned from Katrina earlier that year that if we are under a hurricane warning to put up the shutters, even if I feel silly about it.

Hurricane Warning: An announcement that hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area. Because outside preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

In 30+ years I have occasionally regretted not preparing to the level the NHC warnings would indicate I should after listening to a TV met tell me that a storm "won't be a big deal". On the other hand, I have never regretted preparing for a storm based upon NHC warnings even if it did turn out to be nothing.
Quoting 1092. NNYer:

That's an awful lot of land to interact with in the current forecast path.
Yes, the worst case scenario for a weak tropical storm that wants to survived, ...lets see...
Quoting 1083. FOREX:

I think the NHC is waiting to see how Erica looks when she exits the DR/Haiti before posting any more watches or warnings.

Makes sense...so we will wait and see I guess... might travel to south florida to my brother in FL today and then see what we do with the Keys reservation tomorrow.
1114. WxLogic
I know I mentioned before, what IF Erika would get to the W/NW Carib where higher TCHP values were but wasn't expecting Erika to literally attempt to cross the Caribbean.... with a new center trying to reform further south, I believe now she might be able to make it.
1115. NNYer
Quoting 1104. MahFL:



We have a Strong El Nino, that's why.


That, and above normal SST's in other areas of the Pacific as well.
Quoting 1089. hurricanes2018:



this path keeps moving west every 6 hours


Also with the first forecast plot always NW of the Center

One thing that is certain is that Erika has managed to survive despite her unorthodox ways (that's mother nature for you) and the longer this persists the more probabilities of various scenarios in relation to track and landfall(s). In my opinion and from experience these are the type of systems that find a way and almost always cause the most problems because they defy the odds.
1118. Crucian
Well, I got out and did a survey and it's not a pretty picture. The usual limbs and leaves everywhere but it took out six or seven 30+ foot tall Yucca blocking my road, a hardwood went down further on the hill and the line from the transformer to my house parted.

After I pushed the stuff to the side with my tractor I went up the mountain and moved some trees for neighbors. No one is going anywhere today anyway, we're under a Curfew until 5:00 this evening.

As far as island wide, little or no structural damage, trees down, lines down and the usual debris scattered about.

I looked at the satellite animation this morning and we had a blob separate from the main body of the storm and dive right across the island on it's way South to join the man system. Rain good and I'll probably get power back in a few days.

Station Location: 17°44'20"N 64º41'49"W 400' ASL- NE Coast above Christiansted, St. Croix, V.I.
Equipment: Davis Vantage PRO 2, anemometer 20' above ground level, unobstructed

The highest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in Erika's projected path is north of Cuba in the Florida Straits.
1121. gator23
Quoting 1082. Accu35blog:

Not all of the storms heads west are weak, if conditions are right it could ramp up as it heads west bound, look at Katrina it went the same path as this one

Nope. Not even close.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1114. WxLogic:

I know I mentioned before, what IF Erika would get to the W/NW Carib where higher TCHP values were but wasn't expecting Erika to literally attempt to cross the Caribbean.... with a new center trying to reform further south, I believe now she might be able to make it.


I remember

I also mentioned very high SSTs currently it's even higher than the Bahamas and the GOM right now I think it's the hottest spot out of the whole Atlantic basin also very high trop cyclone heat potentials

1124. wpb
give recon crew lots of credit tough flying around hispanola can get extreme updrafts without warning
surprised there below 1000 feet but there trying to locate the real center
Sounds to me like Dr. M knows his percentages, 2 days ago he called for a 40% chance of dissipation for Erika. Sure looks a lot more likely now. Good job Dr. M. I do not wish for any storm to hit the US, anyone who wants one here is sick in the head, only causes havoc.
I've been lurking for awhile. This storm is confusing. I haven't been able to find the COC in two days. The cone is over the entire state of Florida, but who knows where the actual storms will end up (IF the storm makes it across the DR). Ack!
Quoting 1118. Crucian:

Well, I got out and did a survey and it's not a pretty picture. The usual limbs and leaves everywhere but it took out six or seven 30+ foot tall Yucca blocking my road, a hardwood went down further on the hill and the line from the transformer to my house parted.

After I pushed the stuff to the side with my tractor I went up the mountain and moved some trees for neighbors. No one is going anywhere today anyway, we're under a Curfew until 5:00 this evening.

As far as island wide, little or no structural damage, trees down, lines down and the usual debris scattered about.

I looked at the satellite animation this morning and we had a blob separate from the main body of the storm and dive right across the island on it's way South to join the man system. Rain good and I'll probably get power back in a few days.

Station Location: 17°44'20"N 64º41'49"W 400' ASL- NE Coast above Christiansted, St. Croix, V.I.
Equipment: Davis Vantage PRO 2, anemometer 20' above ground level, unobstructed




Thanks for the report, we are still waiting for Ms "Erika Uncertainty Godot" here in the Turks and Caicos...
1128. WxLogic
Quoting 1120. southfla:

The highest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in Erika's projected path is north of Cuba in the Florida Straits.



I'm interested to see what happens to Erika past 70W if she survives.
1129. SSL1441
Quoting 1112. TeleConnectSnow:

Thank the Lord we can pronounce this thing DEAD...no more tracking and wasting our time.


It isn't dead yet.
Quoting 1079. nolajet:



Really. It isn't as if the track is going to remain static until landfall, which makes me wonder why the celebration over the track change. It's like observing leaves fall from a tree and going nuts when a leaf finally hits the patch of ground that you've been staring at for an hour.


lol, that was a good one. This is a very tricky storm for everyone involved. Shows that mother nature will do what she wants and will often throw a curve ball. Not all storms hit Central FL :)
If the cone stays as is, EC FL gets the nasty side.
Longtime "lurker" first time caller as the radio people would say. Might as well get right into the mess. The ragged and rough miss Erika has been bullied by high shear, dry air, and the extremely loud El nino mantra thats seems to have been ringing OH so loud in tropical Atlantic since her inception. Currently a not so welcome interaction with the large rocks (mountains) of Hispaniola. Unfavorable high shear continues for the nxt 24-36hrs keeping Erica on the ropes and WSW of the projected track with possible more land interaction then previously estimated. Can she survive on the merit of her size? The NHC seems to guess Yes! If so the fact of Fertile waters (85-90degrees) await, low to moderate shear looks likely as early as saturday night , and a blocking ridge setting up for early week will make for an interesting non exit OTS and any right turn north unlikely to latter in the upcoming week. A dangerous event for FLA in the making more specifically the West and southwest coast of florida is very possible in the form of heavy rains from a weak to moderate tropical storm moving just off the coast or just inland. A slow moving storm looks plausible on top of a wet wet summer. The weaker and more ragged she goes the farther west she goes . The big question is does she survive the nxt 24hrs setting to be the most hostile so far.... the odds makers say yes so I will hedge with them.
Has the northern center of circulation made landfall?
Would it be possible for the LLC to dissipate over Haiti/DR and the MLC to take over w/ a new LLC? If so would it be Erika still? Or Fred? Or is this question nonsense? Lol,
Quoting 1134. Articuno:

Would it be possible for the LLC to dissipate over Haiti/DR and the MLC to take over w/ a new LLC? If so would it be Erika still? Or Fred? Or is this question nonsense? Lol,


It would be Erika
Rain clouds and thunder. Yup its setting up. Gonna sleep hope I don't awake in craziness.