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Erika Floods Dominica; Major Uncertainties on Potential U.S. Impact

By: Jeff Masters 2:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2015

Heavy rains and strong gusty winds are sweeping through much of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today as Tropical Storm Erika heads west at 16 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in the storm Thursday morning, and at 8 am EDT found Erika's top surface winds were 50 mph, with a central pressure nearly unchanged at 1004 mb. The aircraft also found the center had jogged to the south by about 20 miles between 5 am and 8 am, a position which put the center of circulation closer to Erika's heaviest thunderstorms. According to the Antigua Met Service, Canefield Airport on Dominica recorded 8.86" (225 mm) of rain Wednesday night from Erika, and heavy flooding has been observed on the island. The Guadaloupe Airport has recorded 1.18" of rain today as of 9 am EDT, with a peak wind gust of 36 mph. A Personal Weather Station (PWS) on St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands at higher elevation recorded a wind gust of 47 mph Thursday morning. Erika's tropical storm-force winds were on the east side of the storm, so the strongest winds of the storm will not occur in the Virgin Islands until Thursday afternoon. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Erika continued to be disorganized in the face of dry air and wind shear. There is not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's north side, where there was dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, and Erika had only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms on its east side. These thunderstorms did not change much in intensity or areal coverage on Thursday morning. Wind shear due to upper-level winds out of the west was a high 20 knots, and this shear was driving dry air on the northwest side of Erika into its core, disrupting the storm. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were favorable for development, though—near 28.5°C (83°F).


Figure 1. Heavy flooding on Dominica on Thursday morning, August 27, 2015 from Erika. Image posted via Twitter to The Weather Channel.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Storm Erika at 9:45 am EDT August 27, 2015, from the Guadaloupe/Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

Erika's impact on the Caribbean islands
Erika's expected rainfall amounts of 3 - 5" in the islands may cause some isolated flash flooding and mudslides, but should help alleviate severe to extreme drought conditions some of the islands are experiencing. Puerto Rico, for example, desperately needs the rain--water restrictions are in place in the capital of San Juan, where hundreds of thousands of residents receive water only two days per week.


Figure 3. MODIS image of Erika from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at approximately 10 am EDT Thursday August 27, 2015. At the time, Erika had top sustained winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Erika's potential impact on the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast
The main words to describe the forecast for Erika for its impact on the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast: much higher uncertainty than usual. Our main models for predicting hurricane track and intensity have been showing large differences run-to-run, and with each other. Erika could dissipate before reaching the U.S., could hit as a hurricane, or could miss the coast entirely, depending upon which model you believe. In the short term, we are pretty sure Erika will struggle, though. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would increase to a high 25 - 30 knots Thursday night though Friday afternoon, due to an upper-level low that is expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. At that time, Erika will be passing just north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and it is possible that the increasing shear and interaction with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will cause Erika to dissipate. This morning's southwards jog by 20 miles may turn out to bring the center of Erika close enough to Hispaniola on Friday to significantly weaken the storm. However, dissipation of Erika is looking less likely than it did when I wrote yesterday's post, since Erika has managed to generate enough heavy thunderstorm activity to moisten its environment and help protect it from dry air and high wind shear. If Erika survives into Saturday morning, Erika could intensify into a hurricane that might affect the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm to near 29°C (84°F) in the Southeast Bahamas, and are 30°C (86°F) in the Northwest Bahamas, which would potentially provide plenty of extra fuel for intensification. The upper low over Cuba is forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should cause wind shear to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, as Erika traverses the Bahamas, which should allow the storm to grow more organized. A weak trough of low pressure capable of turning Erika to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, and it is possible that Erika will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough and turn to the north just before reaching the Florida coast on Sunday evening or Monday morning. If Erika stays weak, the storm is more likely to plow into Florida. To further complicate matters, steering currents may collapse next week, allowing Erika to wander offshore the Southeast U.S. coast for many days. I give a 20% chance that Erika will end up being a landfalling hurricane for the U.S. East Coast, a 20% chance storm will dissipate by Saturday, a 30% chance the storm will be too weak and disorganized to have time to organize into a hurricane before hitting the U.S. East Coast, and a 30% chance that Erika will miss the U.S. East Coast entirely.


Figure 4. The 00Z Thursday (8 pm EDT Wednesday) runs of the European and GFS models had similar predictions for the intensity and track of Erika for 5 pm Sunday August 30, 2015, showing a weak tropical storm off the coast of Florida. Image taken from our wundermap with the “Model Data” layer turned on.


Figure 5. Forecasts of the track of Tropical Storm Erika from the 00Z Thursday (8 pm EDT Wednesday) run of the GFS model from the twenty members of the GFS Ensemble model. The GFS Ensemble takes the operational version of the GFS model and makes twenty different runs of it at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an ensemble of possible forecasts. Compared to Wednesday's runs of the GFS Ensemble, today's run has many more members showing recurvature out to sea with no impact on the U.S. The operational high-res version of the GFS is the white line.

Hurricane Ignacio a threat to Hawaii
Hawaii needs to closely watch Hurricane Ignacio, which is gathering strength in the waters about 1200 miles east-southeast of the islands. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Ignacio had an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms that were growing in intensity and areal extent, and Ignacio is over warm waters with light to moderate wind shear, conditions that favor possible rapid intensification. The 00Z Thursday (8 pm EDT Wednesday) run of one of our top models for forecasting hurricane tracks, the European model, showed Ignacio passing within 100 miles of Hawaii on Tuesday. Hawaii should also keep an eye on Tropical Storm Jimena, which is gathering strength in the waters over 1500 miles east southeast of the islands.

Bob Henson will have another Erika post later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1977. Hurricanes101:

Recon having issues is part of the problem here. I think we would have a clearer picture if everything was going smooth


Maybe but I'm sure it's a cuss storm inside the airplane
And everybody yelling what the hell lol

Feeling sorry for them flyboys
Quoting 1970. JRRP:


well is moving due west


And faster than 12 mph at that. That thing is booking it.
2003. Mikla
Whatever that rotation is up by PR is moving along. Some quick measurements and calculation show it clipping along at ~26kts moving west.
Quoting 1974. StormFreakyisher:

Been lurking on here for years from time to time. First time checking back in. This storm sure is a dilemma! I'm in Boca Raton by the way...is anyone near my area?
There are quite a few here from sfl.
2005. Snofl
Quoting 1933. washingtonian115:

Erika is one of the storms you just want throw something at so badly.She's playing childish head games and is very confusing.
Quoting 1933. washingtonian115:
That's why they call it El Nino
Erika is one of the storms you just want throw something at so badly.She's playing childish head games and is very confusing.
YAY i was commit 2000 what do i win for being the 2000 commit
Quoting 1986. SecretStormNerd:

Lake worth here


North Boynton/South Lake Worth here! Hi neighbor!
2008. will45
Quoting 1999. Hurricanes101:



yea, clear instrumentation issues, which is only adding to the difficulty of this



just updated
Good evening,

With the steering looking like this why would Erika be heading anywhere other than due West ?.



I also see two centres, one near 17.5 N and 65 W and the other near 15.2 and 65.5

The shortwave shows this quite nicely.


2010. guygee
"A storm splitting" is called decoupling, that is what we are seeing. It is how tropical cyclones dissipate. Rarely a new CoC will reform, but the Eastern Caribbean is known to be hostile to tropical formation. Erika is a wave now, it will be verified tonight or tomorrow morning.
Quoting 2000. Tazmanian:




but the MDR is not in area of 50 too 60kt of shear


Nor is the Caribbean
Right now hardly has 40kts much less 50kts or 60kts

2012. FOREX
Quoting 2009. kmanislander:

Good evening,

With the steering looking like this why would Erika be heading anywhere other than due West ?.



I also see two centres, one near 17.5 N and 65 W and the other near 15.2 and 65.5

The shortwave shows this quite nicely.



So far I think that is the only direction she has gone.lol
2013. Drakoen
Looks like Erica is just southwest of PR. Very broad circulation, easily with multiple low level vortices. The mean center looks to be on the NHC forecast track.


This is where ERika was around 1:30pm today!
2015. FLH
Still a lot of questions with Erika..... We should know more by tomorrow
2016. will45
SFMR not working tho
I wonder what the NHC will have to say in their 11 pm update. Right now I have no clue what Erika is doing; Your guess is as good as mine. This storm sure is unpredictable. I think I'll log off for a while and check back in tomorrow evening. Hopefully by then we'll have a clearer picture of where Erika is headed and whether she will be a threat to the US or not.
2018. Gearsts
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago
#Erika apparently still saddled with multiple vortices. Primary surface center is quickly moving westward south of PR
Quoting 1967. JRRP:

oh lord



hmmmmm......

Quoting 1999. Hurricanes101:


And PR is the outter most quadrant of the Bermuda Triangle......not blaming it....and not necessarily superstitious....but the coincidence is a little creepy....


yea, clear instrumentation issues, which is only adding to the difficulty of this
Quoting 1994. Toddzing:



West Boca here!

Nice to know some neighbors are in West Boca like me, few years back I believe I was the only one if I could recall lol. Anyways back to lurking for me until Saturday when we have clearer answers for our area.
Not exactly local but a hundred or so miles due west of you in south ft myers. San Carlos Park to be precise!
Erika's track and even future existence are not getting any clearer tonight! If FL track materializes, there won't be much time for preparations. She sure isn't making it easy for the emergency planners...
Quoting 2016. will45:

SFMR not working tho


I havent seen any updates in 18 minutes
Quoting 2011. wunderkidcayman:



Nor is the Caribbean
Right now hardly has 40kts much less 50kts or 60kts





good point
2025. JRRP
wsw
Quoting 2006. Tazmanian:

YAY i was commit 2000 what do i win for being the 2000 commit


You win a suite of free spell check software...


Sorry Taz, just messing with you. Congratulations!
i think the HH sould fly out and head back too Bass and get in too other one and head back out
Quoting 2010. guygee:

"A storm splitting" is called decoupling, that is what we are seeing. It is how tropical cyclones dissipate. Rarely a new CoC will reform, but the Eastern Caribbean is known to be hostile to tropical formation. Erika is a wave now, it will be verified tonight or tomorrow morning.


Unless you are a pro met or have evidence to back your knowledge.. please dont make bold saying like that. There people such as me on the Fl Coast and in the southeast who are very tense right now. Unless you really know what you are saying.. please refrain from making bold calls.
2029. FOREX
Quoting 2019. tiggeriffic:



hmmmmm......


WKC flying back home.
Not sure if anyone has mentioned this. The island of Dominica is pronounced do-min-KNEE-ca
I have heard it incorrectly on NBC national news but correctly on ABC. Inconsequential perhaps to some but
I bet it really ticks off the citizens of that island nation. Rant over







Latest Recon fixes show a movement just a tad south of due west, one weird storm that's for sure!
Earlier today she was looking really good, and i thought we would be having a hurricane landfall in SE FL, now I am thinking that this storm is just going to dissipate, or is it even really a TS???
2033. will45
Quoting 2023. Hurricanes101:



I havent seen any updates in 18 minutes


01:56:00Z 15.650N 66.300W

i just got thatone a few min ago

Hey!! Good to know so many floridians are on the blog!
Quoting 2007. Yankeesfan924:


North Boynton/South Lake Worth here! Hi neighbor!
Quoting 1974. StormFreakyisher:

Been lurking on here for years from time to time. First time checking back in. This storm sure is a dilemma! I'm in Boca Raton by the way...is anyone near my area?

East Boca :)
Quoting 2026. SavannahStorm:



You win a suite of free spell check software...


Sorry Taz, just messing with you. Congratulations!



LOL
looks like they found west winds way down near 15.3N

Quoting 2031. stormpetrol:



Latest Recon fixes show a movement just a tad south of due west, one weird storm that's for sure!


They need to look farther South as well.
Quoting 2006. Tazmanian:

YAY i was commit 2000 what do i win for being the 2000 commit


what college are you committing to hehe
Quoting 2010. guygee:

"A storm splitting" is called decoupling, that is what we are seeing. It is how tropical cyclones dissipate. Rarely a new CoC will reform, but the Eastern Caribbean is known to be hostile to tropical formation. Erika is a wave now, it will be verified tonight or tomorrow morning.
A wave with hurricane force wind gusts?
Quoting 1974. StormFreakyisher:

Been lurking on here for years from time to time. First time checking back in. This storm sure is a dilemma! I'm in Boca Raton by the way...is anyone near my area?


I'm in West Boca!

Good evening all! Have to agree, this is a totally weird storm! Is it possible that this time, she really is spitting out the LLC and reforming one to the south? Also, does that almost straight line of storms to stretching to the south have anything to do with a possible center shift? One last questions, positioning aside, haven't the models always indicated a weak mess of a storm until it got to the Bahamas?

And Falsereport 1 - please stop! We'd all hate to see you break your arm patting yourself on the back for a forecast that has yet to actually develop!
Quoting 2032. Camerooski:

Earlier today she was looking really good, and i thought we would be having a hurricane landfall in SE FL, now I am thinking that this storm is just going to dissipate, or is it even really a TS???


It is tropical storm but a messy disorganized one with multiple vorticies, it also appears to be a destructive one despite its minimal TS status!
Recon is definitely following the incorrect center. Best bet is the vigorous circulation seen on radar.
Zoom in and center on Guayama. COC is just to the SE; Caguas, PR
Guys I don't know what to think about Erika right now.
Bob Henson will have another Erika post later today.


hey bob its getting late where the new blog?
2047. will45
Quoting 2037. Hurricanes101:

looks like they found west winds way down near 15.3N





yes that they did
2048. Mikla
Quoting 2031. stormpetrol:



Latest Recon fixes show a movement just a tad south of due west, one weird storm that's for sure!


Either the folks at NHC are sitting with their arms cross saying "We got this" or their hair is sticking straight out going "what the ...." or somewhere in between... would love to be listening in.
Quoting 2035. Cerendipy:


East Boca :)

R U sure there's such a place as East Boca???

LOL .... leg pulling .... stayed in that area about 10 months after Wilma ...

Quoting 2048. Mikla:



Either the folks at NHC are sitting with their arms cross saying "We got this" or their hair is sticking straight out going "what the ...." or somewhere in between... would love to be listening in.


My money is on your 2nd option lol
2051. guygee
Quoting 2028. WeatherLover213:



Unless you are a pro met or have evidence to back your knowledge.. please dont make bold saying like that. There people such as me on the Fl Coast and in the southeast who are very tense right now. Unless you really know what you are saying.. please refrain from making bold calls.
It is well understood that all statements on this blog are unofficial. Unless you are a moderator here and request otherwise, I will call it like I see it.

To be more precise, that tiny surface circulation could develop more convection around it and survive, but right now it is leaving the convection and its upper support behind.

That is what we do here, discuss weather, not make official pronouncements. Do you have a different idea?
It looks as if the HH is about to investigate the "other centre" near 15.2. N
I don't know why it say 1011mb it is 1008 if you go look at the HH
Quoting 2031. stormpetrol:



Latest Recon fixes show a movement just a tad south of due west, one weird storm that's for sure!
Quoting 2038. kmanislander:



They need to look farther South as well.


I personally am suspicious of a new center taking over around 15N/65W ? Thoughts?
This is what I saw before

02:04:00Z 15.383N 66.383W 697.0 mb
(~ 20.58 inHg) 3,192 meters
(~ 10,472 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.81 inHg) - From 260° at 10 knots
(From the W at ~ 11.5 mph)
Quoting 2009. kmanislander:

Good evening,

With the steering looking like this why would Erika be heading anywhere other than due West ?.



I also see two centres, one near 17.5 N and 65 W and the other near 15.2 and 65.5

The shortwave shows this quite nicely.





I'm glad you see it too I was starting to think we where all starting to go mad
2057. will45
Quoting 2052. kmanislander:

Ït looks as if the HH is about to investigate the "other centre" near 15.2. N



thats close to where the west winds are
2058. JRRP
Quoting 2043. MiamiHurricanes09:

Recon is definitely following the incorrect center. Best bet is the vigorous circulation seen on radar.

I agree
Quoting 2052. kmanislander:

Ït looks as if the HH is about to investigate the "other centre" near 15.2. N
They needed to do that a while back.
Where are they flying out of, Kman? Do you know?
If people don't want to hear opinions why are they here?
Quoting 2049. BahaHurican:

R U sure there's such a place as East Boca???

LOL .... leg pulling .... stayed in that area about 10 months after Wilma ...



Pretty sure...but I have been watching Erika for a while so it is possible I have lost my mind.
Quoting 2034. SecretStormNerd:

Hey!! Good to know so many floridians are on the blog!

Yeah, looks like there's a bunch of us here.

I just got back from Publix an hour ago with a bunch of water and some other supplies. Better safe than sorry :)
Quoting 2059. BahaHurican:

They needed to do that a while back.
Where are they flying out of, Kman? Do you know?


I think this one flew out of Miami
Quoting 2059. BahaHurican:

They needed to do that a while back.
Where are they flying out of, Kman? Do you know?


Miami
2065. miamivu
Quoting 1329. FunnelVortex:



Probably a planned project that got canned, like it always does every time it has come up since the end of the 70's


Old enough to remember the experimental seeding of Hurricane Betsy in '65 with dry ice; storm was headed to NC and right after the seeding, the storm abruptly turned SW, striking Miami (landfall Key Largo) and later New Orleans...probably a coincidence...but there's very little information about the experiment which was widely reported in the media beforehand.
HH flew all the way from Miami just to have faulty instruments and get lost amongst the 20,000 vortices. Tough day for 'em LOL.
2067. Gearsts
Ada Monzón ‏@adamonzon 1m1 minute ago
Rafagas de 54 mph en Yabucoa y 40 mph en San Juan
South Miami Dade County, the Falls, Pinecrest Area.
Quoting 2054. stormpetrol:



I personally am suspicious of a new center taking over around 15N/65W ? Thoughts?


Yes, see my earlier post. 15.2 N
2070. will45
now recon is in the west winds
Quoting 2066. MiamiHurricanes09:

HH flew all the way from Miami just to have faulty instruments and get lost amongst the 20,000 vortices. Tough day for 'em LOL.


Quite a haul in a turbo prop :-(
Quoting 2065. miamivu:



Old enough to remember the experimental seeding of Hurricane Betsy in '65 with dry ice; storm was headed to NC and right after the seeding, the storm abruptly turned SW, striking Miami (landfall Key Largo) and later New Orleans...probably a coincidence...but there's very little information about the experiment which was widely reported in the media beforehand.



Then there was the 1947 "Project Cirrus"-

Project Cirrus was the first attempt to modify a hurricane. It was a collaboration of the General Electric Corporation, the US Army Signal Corps, the Office of Naval Research, and the US Air Force.[1] After several preparations, and initial skepticism by government scientists,[6] the first attempt to modify a hurricane began on October 13, 1947 on a hurricane that was heading west to east and out to sea.[5]
An airplane flew along the rainbands of the hurricane, and dropped nearly 180 pounds (82 kilograms) of crushed dry ice into the clouds.[1] The crew reported "Pronounced modification of the cloud deck seeded".[5] It is not known if that was due to the seeding. Next, the hurricane changed direction and made landfall near Savannah, Georgia. The public blamed the seeding, and Irving Langmuir claimed that the reversal had been caused by human intervention.[6] Cirrus was canceled,[5] and lawsuits were threatened. Only the fact that a system in 1906 had taken a similar path, as well as evidence showing that the storm had already begun to turn when seeding began, ended the litigation.[5] This disaster set back the cause of seeding hurricanes for eleven years.


There are still people to this day who say it was the government's fault.
Quoting 2030. SunnyDaysFla:

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this. The island of Dominica is pronounced do-min-KNEE-ca
I have heard it incorrectly on NBC national news but correctly on ABC. Inconsequential perhaps to some but
I bet it really ticks off the citizens of that island nation. Rant over






You are correct. Like people say Cay-MEN islands when it is Cay-MAN islands.
definitely some good west winds down there around 15.2N

This recon is having nothing but issues though, but I think the dominant center may be relocating down there now
Quoting 2063. Hurricanes101:



I think this one flew out of Miami
I knew they had to get their equipment up and out of St. Croix by this morning latest, but never heard where they took it. Though I do recall noting a plane flying NW at one point, I think I just assumed it was doing an upper air recon job...
I know this, Erika is winning the psych battle with the blog. Every which way but clarity. No idea where it's headed, what direction it's headed in now, where the center may be, or whether this will die tomorrow or be a major by Monday. NHC, says, check back soon, we have no idea beyond Saturday; could go anywhere. I'm paraphrasing there, but that's it in a nutshell.
2077. guygee
Quoting 2040. stormchaser14:

A wave with hurricane force wind gusts?
Strong tropical waves can have strong tropical storm-force winds, what they lack is a closed center at the surface. Even a strong summertime thunderstorm can have hurricane-force gusts!
2078. will45
Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure is messed up again go figure
Quoting 1963. Abacosurf:

If the North center starts to move wsw then Sw around the larger one this will be a good indicator.
Quoting 1983. wunderkidcayman:



Agreed

Hmm it started to be a good indicator already
Look what I stated below




Well so far indicators are holding up

As stated below

Quoting 2025. JRRP:

wsw



I am curious as to why so many are saying shear will finish her off when she has been fighting the same conditions since yesterday.
Quoting 2071. kmanislander:



Quite a haul in a turbo prop :-(
May fly down to Barbados after this? I wouldn't expect they'd go back to MIA ... that's several hundred miles well ....
2082. BocaFL
I am from West Boca too! I am a lurker and love Doc and Bob's blog and the comment community. This storm has kept me captivated for days. It been a roller coaster. Now that I went out tonight to get supplies, this storm might finally die. Target is out of water but Publix has palettes dropped all over the place.
2083. nash36
My statement on Erika:

Just croak already. Hit the 10,000 ft. peaks and retire. We're tired of this game. Gone are the days of a well-defined cyclone.
Quoting 2073. stormwatcherCI:

You are correct. Like people say Cay-MEN islands when it is Cay-MAN islands.


And Miami should be Miam-uh...lol or it used to be spoken that way by some.
Quoting 2039. Camille33:



what college are you committing to hehe


Alabama since you are commit 2000 and they overcommit. $ec
2086. LBAR
Twins! OR Erika has given birth. Or HAARP. Or nature.
Quoting 2083. nash36:

My statement on Erika:

Just croak already. Hit the 10,000 ft. peaks and retire. We're tired of this game. Gone are the days of a well-defined cyclone.


wait until next year, there will be some nice ones
2088. nash36
Quoting 2080. stormwatcherCI:

I am curious as to why so many are saying shear will finish her off when she has been fighting the same conditions since yesterday.


Because no one has the slightest clue as to what is next. It's kinda like doctors.. All guesswork in a white coat.
West Boynton beach! Been a long time lurker.

Quoting 2062. Yankeesfan924:


Yeah, looks like there's a bunch of us here.

I just got back from Publix an hour ago with a bunch of water and some other supplies. Better safe than sorry :)
Quoting 2081. BahaHurican:

May fly down to Barbados after this? I wouldn't expect they'd go back to MIA ... that's several hundred miles well ....


No way back to Miami. I doubt they would have the fuel after being on station for a while. Probably St. Croix.

2091. JRRP
Quoting 2083. nash36:

My statement on Erika:

Just croak already. Hit the 10,000 ft. peaks and retire. We're tired of this game. Gone are the days of a well-defined cyclone.
.... in the Atlantic.

The Pacific, OTOH, has got 'em up the wazoo ... go figure.
I could see a line in the discussion like this

So apparently, Erika has just set the record for having 18 centers spinning at once
2094. will45
SFMR working again 47.4 knots (~ 54.5 mph)
Tropical Storm
2095. nash36
Quoting 2092. BahaHurican:

.... in the Atlantic.

The Pacific, OTOH, has got 'em up the wazoo ... go figure.


Agreed. Not our year. Very frustrating storm.
Quoting 2094. will45:

SFMR working again 47.4 knots (~ 54.5 mph)
Tropical Storm


Relocation seems to have occurred to me

Strongest west winds, closed circulation and strongest winds all down there
Recon has a pronounced shift at 15.3N. If that's the center, then Erika is done for. A relocation that far south would mean the center passes over a big chunk of Hispaniola.

If the center is the circulation near Puerto Rico, then this still has a chance.
2098. gator23
Quoting 2092. BahaHurican:

.... in the Atlantic.

The Pacific, OTOH, has got 'em up the wazoo ... go figure.

Danny was well defined. Perhaps u remember him?
Huge wind shift.

Quoting 2097. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recon has a pronounced shift at 15.3N. If that's the center, then Erika is done for. A relocation that far south would mean the center passes over a big chunk of Hispaniola.

If the center is the circulation near Puerto Rico, then this still has a chance.


Not if she misses Hispaniola altogether; which is a possibility now if that is the center
2101. will45
Quoting 2096. Hurricanes101:



Relocation seems to have occurred to me

Strongest west winds, closed circulation and strongest winds all down there



yes i agree
2102. gator23
Quoting 2097. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recon has a pronounced shift at 15.3N. If that's the center, then Erika is done for. A relocation that far south would mean the center passes over a big chunk of Hispaniola.

If the center is the circulation near Puerto Rico, then this still has a chance.

Lets remember that ths 10,000 ft mountains are in central hispanola
2103. JRRP
Quoting 2095. nash36:



Agreed. Not our year. Very frustrating storm.
I'm feeling very ambivalent about this storm. On the one hand I want to root for it to make it and bloom, blossom, grow into a lovely round ball of hurricane gorgeousness.

Then I look at the track and think, "Die, ........." [word omitted].
Quoting 2082. BocaFL:

I am from West Boca too! I am a lurker and love Doc and Bob's blog and the comment community. This storm has kept me captivated for days. It been a roller coaster. Now that I went out tonight to get supplies, this storm might finally die. Target is out of water but Publix has palettes dropped all over the place.


You know, everyone who knows me makes fun of me for being such a weather geek! But being a weather geek means I'm normally hitting the stores 2-3 days before the others even realize what's going on! A quiet, fully stocked store is a fair trade off for being made fun of!
Quoting 2092. BahaHurican:

.... in the Atlantic.

The Pacific, OTOH, has got 'em up the wazoo ... go figure.

Honestly, I can't believe it's been ten years since we've had a hurricane. Wilma sucked (I had no power for three weeks and 6 days) so I'm in no hurry to call out the no hitter and end the streak.
Quoting 2099. MiamiHurricanes09:

Huge wind shift.




That's where I see the "other centre" and, IMO, the dominant one when you look at the CDO.
Quoting 2100. Hurricanes101:



Not if she misses Hispaniola altogether; which is a possibility now if that is the center
Definitely. Would probably traverse Cuba, even though it probably wouldn't make it there because if I'm not mistaken the Caribbean is a graveyard at the moment.
Quoting 2103. JRRP:




That would be a big relocation of the COC.
Quoting 2083. nash36:

My statement on Erika:

Just croak already. Hit the 10,000 ft. peaks and retire. We're tired of this game. Gone are the days of a well-defined cyclone.
Danny was a very well defined Little hurricane, didn't last for long though...
Ok with two main LLCOC I say the one with the most and highest convection will become the winner
2112. SSL1441
Quoting 2106. Cerendipy:


Honestly, I can't believe it's been ten years since we've had a hurricane. Wilma sucked (I had no power for three weeks and 6 days) so I'm in no hurry to call out the no hitter and end the streak.


Uhm, Isaac?
Quoting 2108. MiamiHurricanes09:

Definitely. Would probably traverse Cuba, even though it probably wouldn't make it there because if I'm not mistaken the Caribbean is a graveyard at the moment.

Map earlier showed about 40 kts of shear under Hispanola so yeah...Erika ain't makin it there..
Quoting 2106. Cerendipy:


Honestly, I can't believe it's been ten years since we've had a hurricane. Wilma sucked (I had no power for three weeks and 6 days) so I'm in no hurry to call out the no hitter and end the streak.


Wilma brought a wonderful cold front with it though.


Next stop, south of St. Croix HH please.
Avila is working the night shift this evening so I'm sure the discussion is gonna bring some laughs.
Quoting 2112. SSL1441:



Uhm, Isaac?
issac didn;t make landfall and it wasn't even a hurricane.
Quoting 2112. SSL1441:



Uhm, Isaac?

Sorry...I meant since Florida had a hurricane, not the entire U.S.
Quoting 2107. kmanislander:



That's where I see the "other centre" and, IMO, the dominant one when you look at the CDO.
Good night. 29th August will be 7 years since Gustav hit us even though he was forecast to move north of the islands. His center relocation was what sent him our way. I think we need to watch Erika closely as she continues westward.


Big time tops going up on the forecast track

Quoting 2110. HuracanTaino:

Danny was a very well defined Little hurricane, didn't last for long though...
According to the latest NAM Erica hits the Mona passage and skirts the North coast of DR and survives.
Quoting 2115. VAbeachhurricanes:



Next stop, south of St. Croix HH please.

Yeah. The pressure drop plus the persistent developing convection in that area supports something going on.

A reformation there would be great for Erika because it would only skirt Hispaniola. A reformation to the southern circulation that the HH are investigating would mean dissipation over the next two days.
2123. nash36
Quoting 2116. MiamiHurricanes09:

Avila is working the night shift this evening so I'm sure the discussion is gonna bring some laughs.


They will, but I'll be biting my tongue.

God knows, I don't want to offend "children" and get banned again.
Incredible something this disorganized can still produce TS force winds.

Time: 02:36:00Z
Coordinates: 15.383N 64.367W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,204 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.2 mb (29.89 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 177° at 40 kts (From the S at 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 6.8°C* (44.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 45 kts (51.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 kts* (39.1 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr* (0.24 in/hr*)
ta
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 02:23:00Z
Coordinates: 15.317N 65.133W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,198 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.3 mb (29.90 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 226°* at 22 kts* (From the SW* at 25.3 mph*)
Air Temp: 10.6°C (51.1°F)
Dew Pt: 10.6°C (51.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 32 kts* (36.8 mph*)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 50 kts (57.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 46 mm/hr (1.81 in/hr

possible location of new LLC, just saying
Quoting 2114. FLMermaid:



Wilma brought a wonderful cold front with it though.

Yes, it sure did...but unfortunately for me it didn't last the entire time I was out of power. It was crazy how cold it got right after Wilma cleared out, though.
Do we finally have a center to track now?????
If so, What are the accurate/ serious thoughts on the future of the storm?
Quoting 2106. Cerendipy:


Honestly, I can't believe it's been ten years since we've had a hurricane. Wilma sucked (I had no power for three weeks and 6 days) so I'm in no hurry to call out the no hitter and end the streak.
You guys have been over on the dry side .... meanwhile we've had Noel, Irene, and a couple other decrepit ones .... one is thankful for a year without "action" in our area ...

Quoting 2108. MiamiHurricanes09:

Definitely. Would probably traverse Cuba, even though it probably wouldn't make it there because if I'm not mistaken the Caribbean is a graveyard at the moment.
That little area right under Cuba, between Cuba and the Caymans, actually had some of the most favorable conditions going as Danny was headed that way, including 5 -10 kt shear ..... luckily Danny didn't make it that far...
Quoting 2116. MiamiHurricanes09:

Avila is working the night shift this evening so I'm sure the discussion is gonna bring some laughs.
He was very tight-lipped at 5 p.m. ...
Quoting 2123. nash36:



They will, but I'll be biting my tongue.

God knows, I don't want to offend "children" and get banned again.
Same over here. Don't want to offend the copious amounts of toddlers on this blog by any means.
Quoting 2117. Camerooski:

issac didn;t make landfall and it wasn't even a hurricane.


It was very much a hurricane.
Quoting 2127. WeatherLover213:

Do we finally have a center to track now?????
If so, What are the accurate/ serious thoughts on the future of the storm?


Nope.
And.
Nope.
Quoting 2099. MiamiHurricanes09:

Huge wind shift.




you know, hours ago when i first saw the storm bifurcate, with the evidence of multiple llc's of before, i typed a comment about a two-headed storm and then stopped and erased it all...

but seems pretty much what's happened, huh...

seems as it wasn't that crazy an idea after all. add one to the books.
Quoting 2126. Cerendipy:


Yes, it sure did...but unfortunately for me it didn't last the entire time I was out of power. It was crazy how cold it got right after Wilma cleared out, though.


I lucked out with Wilma. She pushed me into premature labor and I got to ride the warmer days in the hospital. If only things played that nicely out, the aftermath wouldn't be so terrible.
Quoting 2127. WeatherLover213:

Do we finally have a center to track now?????
If so, What are the accurate/ serious thoughts on the future of the storm?
Yes, as a matter of fact we have about 5 of them to track.
Possible split with two centers? They are roughly 160 miles apart and there's plenty of energy for it. Erika may be the Legion.
Quoting 2119. stormwatcherCI:

Good night. 29th August will be 7 years since Gustav hit us even though he was forecast to move north of the islands. His center relocation was what sent him our way. I think we need to watch Erika closely as she continues westward.


Hi,

Sheared systems are notoriously unpredictable. Certainly worth watching. If the centre is accepted as being down near 15.2 then it becomes a whole new ball game. All depends on what the HH finds after looping around. No sonde dropped down there according to the data so far.
Quoting 2086. LBAR:

Twins! OR Erika has given birth. Or HAARP. Or nature.


ncstorm and her damn elves again
2139. SSL1441
Quoting 2117. Camerooski:

issac didn;t make landfall and it wasn't even a hurricane.


uhhh. Yeah he did and yes he was. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/201 2/Tropical-Depression-Isaac
Do some research next time.
Quoting 2130. hurricanes2018:


Wow.... another one????
Absolutely amazing looking AEWs this season ....
Quoting 2135. MiamiHurricanes09:

Yes, as a matter of fact we have about 5 of them to track.

Quadruple the fun!
Quoting 2101. will45:




yes i agree

Guayama, SE , Puerto Rico, reporting winds 40 to 50mph....


something else to watch
2144. MahFL
Will the two big red blobs link up eventually ?



2145. JRRP
Wilma was the first hurricane I went thru that we didn't need the a/c directly afterwards because the temp dropped into to 50's or 60's during the Day! Its why I will NEVER forget that storm
Quoting 2139. SSL1441:



uhhh. Yeah he did and yes he was. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/201 2/Tropical-Depression-Isaac
Do some research next time.
IN Florida?
2148. BocaFL
Quoting 2105. ProphetessofDoom:



You know, everyone who knows me makes fun of me for being such a weather geek! But being a weather geek means I'm normally hitting the stores 2-3 days before the others even realize what's going on! A quiet, fully stocked store is a fair trade off for being made fun of!


I have been doing that for the last 10 years after we were completely caught unprepared for Wilma. Even bought a few gallons of gas every year. All for storms that go poof! I did not even buy extra gas for this one, just going to brave the Boca Costco gas line tomorrow morning before work.
Quoting 2117. Camerooski:

issac didn;t make landfall and it wasn't even a hurricane.


sweetie....you are mistaken....the were about 34 deaths and over 2.6 Billion in damages...winds of 80 and a 965 mb....
Winds at Caguas are just north of east now. Caguas, PR
Quoting 2146. swflpaul:

Wilma was the first hurricane I went thru that we didn't need the a/c directly afterwards because the temp dropped into to 50's or 60's during the Day! Its why I will NEVER forget that storm
Wow I remember that perfectly. The magic of an extremely powerful October trough hahah.
2152. SSL1441
Quoting 2147. BahaHurican:

IN Florida?


Not in Florida no, but the way it was phrased made it seem as if we haven't had a hurricane hit the US period in 10 years. But as far as Florida, no. Had a couple close calls though. I.E, Irene.
I'd pay for the discussion to just be, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 2139. SSL1441:



uhhh. Yeah he did and yes he was. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/201 2/Tropical-Depression-Isaac
Do some research next time.


Not to mention a great shoot by Michael Laca and others three years ago [Link].
Quoting 2144. MahFL:

Will the two big red blobs link up eventually ?




Looks like they're splitting, if anything .... would be really amazing if both sections survived .... I've never heard of anything like that happening AFTER a storm was named ....
I am a self admitting wishcaster. It is what it is.... With that being said........... Night after night, day after day, we have waited for the storm to gather itself and stack itself. It just cant get it together. Multiple vortexes, pressure that barely qualifies it for TS status, winds that are so far east of the center, that they are more like straight line winds, then spiraling winds. 
Its about to go over land........ maybe....... And I say maybe because no one can really figure out where the exact, real center actually is because its such a mess.   The storm is going to run out of real estate.  Yes, it might make it to the CONUS as a TS........barely........ and yes, it has already proven itself destructive.  But for those who are sticking around waiting for it to reach Hurricane Status and put on a show.........

Not. Gonna. Happen.   
She is too big.She is too ragged.She cannot get her structure lined up.
This storm more then likely maxed out the other day with 50mph winds.  
I always hold the theory that you have to go with the original center, which is producing now, until there is nothing there anymore.
11 should be interesting, but flooding at least we know will be a real threat overnight.

Quoting 2153. VAbeachhurricanes:

I'd pay for the discussion to just be, \_(%u30C4)_/


Quoting 2134. FLMermaid:



I lucked out with Wilma. She pushed me into premature labor and I got to ride the warmer days in the hospital. If only things played that nicely out, the aftermath wouldn't be so terrible.

Oh man, as if you didn't have enough to deal with Post-Wilma, you had premature labor to contend with as well? You make my extended power outage seem like a breeze!
Quoting 2152. SSL1441:



Not in Florida no, but the way it was phrased made it seem as if we haven't had a hurricane hit the US period in 10 years. But as far as Florida, no. Had a couple close calls though. I.E, Irene.
I think he meant Florida, because, well, Ike, Gustav, Irene, Sandy .... [shrugs shoulders]
2161. SSL1441
Quoting 2156. swflEagle:

I am a self admitting wishcaster. It is what it is.... With that being said........... Night after night, day after day, we have waited for the storm to gather itself and stack itself. It just cant get it together. Multiple vortexes, pressure that barely qualifies it for TS status, winds that are so far east of the center, that they are more like straight line winds, then spiraling winds. 
Its about to go over land........ maybe....... And I say maybe because no one can really figure out where the exact, real center actually is because its such a mess.   The storm is going to run out of real estate.  Yes, it might make it to the CONUS as a TS........barely........ and yes, it has already proven itself destructive.  But for those who are sticking around waiting for it to reach Hurricane Status and put on a show.........

Not. Gonna. Happen.   
She is too big.She is too ragged.She cannot get her structure lined up.
This storm more then likely maxed out the other day with 50mph winds.  


I've heard that story before. They're unpredictable for a reason.


what is going on at 35 west more t.storms and rain there
2163. SSL1441
Quoting 2160. BahaHurican:

I think he meant Florida, because, well, Ike, Gustav, Irene, Sandy .... [shrugs shoulders]


Don't forget Arthur
2164. will45
I wonder if NHC will even mention the problems with the recon data?
Quoting 2159. Cerendipy:


Oh man, as if you didn't have enough to deal with Post-Wilma, you had premature labor to contend with as well? You make my extended power outage seem like a breeze!


Nah, I kinda brought it on myself. I had horrible cabin fever and went in the yard to clean up. I guess I wasn't suppose to do that. Hospital food never tasted better : ]
2166. ncstorm
LOL..don't feel bad fellas..I got an hour ban yesterday for saying "Yeah Figures"..

#198 this year..

WPC thinking beyond 5-7





Ugliest tropical system I've ever laid eyes on! She is gonna die soon, hopefully....
Quoting 2155. BahaHurican:

Looks like they're splitting, if anything .... would be really amazing if both sections survived .... I've never heard of anything like that happening AFTER a storm was named ....


So if this is the case, given the distance, could there be a possible Fujiwara? Getting very hypothetical here, but what I'm seeing from PR suggests that the center there is low level and established.
Quoting 2164. will45:

I wonder if NHC will even mention the problems with the recon data?


They often do when it happens, but usually when it cuts the mission short.
Quoting 2162. hurricanes2018:



what is going on at 35 west more t.storms and rain there
Twave that came off a few days ago, behind Erika...
The NHC's 11pm discussion:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 2137. kmanislander:



Hi,

Sheared systems are notoriously unpredictable. Certainly worth watching. If the centre is accepted as being down near 15.2 then it becomes a whole new ball game. All depends on what the HH finds after looping around. No sonde dropped down there according to the data so far.


new ball game in terms of potentially entering the gulf of mexico instead staying in the Atlantic??
I can picture a lot of cussing in Spanish this evening at the NHC.

Erika is that itch that can't be scratched.
Quoting 2168. Stoopid1:



So if this is the case, given the distance, could there be a possible Fujiwara? Getting very hypothetical here, but what I'm seeing from PR suggests that the center there is low level and established.
That would be ... even freakier ...
Quoting 2170. BahaHurican:

Twave that came off a few days ago, behind Erika...
That was that gigantic blob.
U-turn it is.

2177. SSL1441
Quoting 2167. Tazmaniach:

Ugliest tropical system I've ever laid eyes on! She is gonna die soon, hopefully....


I wouldn't say the ugliest, but certainly one of the most interesting.... not to mention one of the most pain in the behind ones.
Quoting 2173. MiamiHurricanes09:

I can picture a lot of cussing in Spanish this evening at the NHC.

Erika is that itch that can't be scratched.


and that is from Stewart, imagine what Avila is saying lol
Quoting 2172. cntrclckwiseSpenn:



new ball game in terms of potentially entering the gulf of mexico instead staying in the Atlantic??


Potentially yes but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Quoting 2173. MiamiHurricanes09:

I can picture a lot of cussing in Spanish this evening at the NHC.

Erika is that itch that can't be scratched.

If Avila is writing the discussion oh boy!
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
Quoting 2176. MiamiHurricanes09:

U-turn it is.




Suspicions aroused, hence my expression of the aircraft looping around :-)
Quoting 2174. BahaHurican:

That would be ... even freakier ...


Erika is Legion, I'm telling you.
And I tell ya. If the old center is still the center, convection just wrapped the center for the first time....

Quoting 2176. MiamiHurricanes09:

U-turn it is.




We are NEVER going to know where Erika is going to go until after she has already been there.
I give up.
2186. miamivu
Quoting 2072. SavannahStorm:



Then there was the 1947 "Project Cirrus"-

Project Cirrus was the first attempt to modify a hurricane. It was a collaboration of the General Electric Corporation, the US Army Signal Corps, the Office of Naval Research, and the US Air Force.[1] After several preparations, and initial skepticism by government scientists,[6] the first attempt to modify a hurricane began on October 13, 1947 on a hurricane that was heading west to east and out to sea.[5]
An airplane flew along the rainbands of the hurricane, and dropped nearly 180 pounds (82 kilograms) of crushed dry ice into the clouds.[1] The crew reported "Pronounced modification of the cloud deck seeded".[5] It is not known if that was due to the seeding. Next, the hurricane changed direction and made landfall near Savannah, Georgia. The public blamed the seeding, and Irving Langmuir claimed that the reversal had been caused by human intervention.[6] Cirrus was canceled,[5] and lawsuits were threatened. Only the fact that a system in 1906 had taken a similar path, as well as evidence showing that the storm had already begun to turn when seeding began, ended the litigation.[5] This disaster set back the cause of seeding hurricanes for eleven years.


There are still people to this day who say it was the government's fault.

The potential litigation is why I think there was such a media black out on Project Storm Fury post-Betsy; unlike the '47 storm, I don't see any precedent for Betsy's track--which hit two major metropolitan areas--after the seeding (Katrina also struck both Miami and New Orleans, but didn't have the loop de loops Betsy took). I remember the news black out on the consequences of the seeding vividly...even to an 11 year old, it seemed a bit of a conspiracy of silence.
Quoting 2181. Hurricanes101:

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM


Thats not very accurate lol
Quoting 2182. kmanislander:



Suspicions aroused, hence my expression of the aircraft looping around :-)

would this be the 2nd time she's relocated her center?
We should have a better idea once Erika passes the Dominica
Quoting 2028. WeatherLover213:



Unless you are a pro met or have evidence to back your knowledge.. please dont make bold saying like that. There people such as me on the Fl Coast and in the southeast who are very tense right now. Unless you really know what you are saying.. please refrain from making bold calls.


LOL. Really? If you have enough sense to call him out on "his" opinion of this storm, you should also have enough sense to realize that this is a weather blog and all information found here is open to interpretation. If you can't stomach that, maybe you should just stick with the official NHC forecast/predictions!
Quoting 2142. HuracanTaino:


Guayama, SE , Puerto Rico, reporting winds 40 to 50mph....


where did u get that info?
Quoting 2160. BahaHurican:

I think he meant Florida, because, well, Ike, Gustav, Irene, Sandy .... [shrugs shoulders]

Thanks; I did mean Florida (see post 2118)...and, just an FYI, I'm actually a "she"... ;)
Quoting 2187. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats not very accurate lol


I think they are going with the mean center between what is near PR and what recon is investigating
11pm discussion "I give up" Avila
The spin near S coast of PR is moving more WSW and becoming lesser defined

The 11pm forecast advisory is out 16.6N, 1008mb
Projected track shifted West, but not by much. Still a guessing game.

I'd say a giant "?" would be just as good.
40 to 50 advisories posted tonight??
Quoting 2196. ecflweatherfan:

The 11pm forecast advisory is out 16.6N, 1008mb


New center?
Quoting 2188. Tazmaniach:


would this be the 2nd time she's relocated her center?


It would be. The first was earlier this morning. Jury still out though. It could also be competing centres within a larger gyre.
Avila is the forecaster, lol. This should be fun!
Quoting 2179. kmanislander:



Potentially yes but let's not get ahead of ourselves.


Perhaps skirt the DR to the south then....Jamaica/Cuba landfall??
Quoting 2193. Hurricanes101:



I think they are going with the mean center between what is near PR and what recon is investigating

They must be so confused
Quoting 2196. ecflweatherfan:

The 11pm forecast advisory is out 16.6N, 1008mb
Not on NHC so where do you see that ?
Quoting 2192. Cerendipy:


Thanks; I did mean Florida (see post 2118)...and, just an FYI, I'm actually a "she"... ;)
Cool .... :o)
Not sure how to feel about this but Drudge has a Fl doom cast front and center on the top of his page. Does he know something we or the NHC don't?
They went 16.6N.
2208. Michfan
I think we are clearly seeing a decoupled system that is ejecting an unfavorable LLC near PR for a more favorable one underneath its CDO and its MLC. Center relocations are quite common with weak systems. Until Erika gets properly stacked this behavior is going to continue. I agree that 15.2N 65.5 W is where it seems to be relocating.
Center relocation may be coming overnight. Tracks likely would shift further westward too, but we will see

11pm track has shifted slightly westward as well
Good evening

Well, we still have power. The winds have really picked up and a couple of the hurricane shutters are vibrating. One dog has taken shelter under the desk and the other one disappeared just after dinner. I refuse to go out looking for her. Imagine she's hiding in a shed somewhere. Very little rain so far and looking at the forecast, not much to come. It's all a wait and see scenario, isn't it?

My thoughts and prayers to those in Dominica.

Lindy
Quoting 2204. stormwatcherCI:

Not on NHC so where do you see that ?


Its in the Forecast Advisory
Quoting 2193. Hurricanes101:



I think they are going with the mean center between what is near PR and what recon is investigating


They wont even fly to the one near PR because they hate us.
Quoting 2207. TropicalAnalystwx13:

They went 16.6N.


While the HH is still hunting around ??
16.6n 65.3 SE of Saint Croix,
Quoting 2195. wunderkidcayman:

The spin near S coast of PR is moving more WSW and becoming lesser defined




At the least, there has been no northern component to the movement for a bit. This is one odd storm.
Quoting 2212. VAbeachhurricanes:



They wont even fly to the one near PR because they hate us.


WKC said it was weakening, so it could have just been a circulation spit out, recon findings show what is down near 15.2 is pretty solid
NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS ERIKA
NHC issuing advisories for the Eastern Pacific on TS JIMENA
CPHC issuing advisories for the Central Pacific on IGNACIO

BTW, just as a point of interest, this will be advice #13 ....
If a new center forms around 15.5 N, what are the thoughts about Erika missing hispanola to the south? Isn't the shallow and mid-layer steering due west at this latitude?
Quoting 2176. MiamiHurricanes09:

U-turn it is.




LOL somebody should photoshop a bar in front of the plane.
Quoting 2189. Tokenfreak:

We should have a better idea once Erika passes the Dominica

Do you mean Dominican Republic?, it already passed Dominica
Quoting 2206. swflpaul:

Not sure how to feel about this but Drudge has a Fl doom cast front and center on the top of his page. Does he know something we or the NHC don't?


He knows how to attract readers.
000
WTNT25 KNHC 280253
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Bursting convection is usually a sign something is going on. They need to go north!

Avila releasing this advisory on his own time
Quoting 2211. Hurricanes101:



Its in the Forecast Advisory
That's all that's up so far ....
Still waiting on this discussion lol
2228. hullwx
TCVAT5

ERIKA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

.TROPICAL STORM ERIKA

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-01 2-013-VIZ001-002-
280900-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W
ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
Just barely west.
Quoting 2220. all4hurricanes:


Do you mean Dominican Republic?, it already passed Dominica


Yes, my bad. Thanks for the correction.
Quoting 2200. kmanislander:



It would be. The first was earlier this morning. Jury still out though. It could also be competing centres within a larger gyre.


Hi Kayman
Quoting 2200. kmanislander:



It would be. The first was earlier this morning. Jury still out though. It could also be competing centres within a larger gyre.

Hi Kman, I've been away for most of the day and haven't been able to follow the blog. Interested to hear what your take is at this point?
Quoting 1801. MiamiHurricanes09:

Well...




Go home recon, you're drunk.
The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre.
2234. hullwx
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.
Quoting 2229. Abacosurf:

Just barely west.

Trying not to make too big a shift....
He was pretty mild mannered on this one

He mentioned they went with the mean center, which makes sense until recon can figure it out
Last advisory: 16.7N 64.7W
New Advisory: 16.6N 65.3W
Uhh?
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting 2236. Hurricanes101:

He was pretty mild mannered on this one

He mentioned they went with the mean center, which makes sense until recon can figure it out
Disappointed I must say.
2240. catjojo
Could someone direct me to where I would find the current wind sheer maps or share the link ?
Mentions Erika deteriorating this discussion, so that might be back on the table.


Tropical Storm JIMENA 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2015 winds 70 mph nice looking tropical storm
looking at the cone I suspect a decent shift soon W
Of course winds are out of the south north of that wind shift they found at 15N.

Oooh I am so annoyed. Erika is the most infuriating cyclone.
Quoting 2230. Tokenfreak:



Yes, my bad. Thanks for the correction.
It caused a terrible disaster in Dominica, my thoughts are with them...
Quoting 2231. SFLWeatherWatch:



Hi Kayman
Hi Kayman, I've been away for most of the day and haven't been able to follow the blog. Interested to hear what your take is at this point?


Due West for now with competing centres. If the one farther North which the NHC is presently using become dominant then South Florida/ Key West and possibly into the GOM. If the centre establishes down South near 15 then the GOM is more in play.

All very preliminary at this time.
Is it just me or does it appear to be splitting has that ever happened before? Two storms out of one?
If there is a reformation further south, it could easily put the Eastern Gulf in play if she was to survive
Well, being a cashier at Target, our store is going to be very busy this weekend as people prepare for Erika. The tracks are not changing anymore and the newest run of the GFS that is coming out soon has recon data. Will be very interesting to see if it still shows a Hurricane moving through our area. Palm Coast is not proned for Hurricanes, most storms normally miss us. This may not be the case this time around.
At least Avila mentioned the thing we saw near PR
Quoting 2185. DaytonaBeachWatcher:



We are NEVER going to know where Erika is going to go until after she has already been there.
I give up.



This storm has me doing the same, people from church that read my blog keep asking and all I can tell them is what I knew 3 days ago...southeast coast needs to watch, it's a mess, big uncertainties. I would really like to quit too on this one. xD
Well there you go, we are all right, lol....
Quoting 2218. BastropTX:

If a new center forms around 15.5 N, what are the thoughts about Erika missing hispanola to the south? Isn't the shallow and mid-layer steering due west at this latitude?


Good question....I'm not qualified to answer, but hopefully someone on here will....I think the initial thinking is that there is enough weakness in the high for it to turn more towards the bahamas....but perhaps IF the center is further south might be directed more west....and could cross over to eastern gulf....maybe west coast coast/northern FL still in play?
2254. MahFL
So the center is in the big main red blob, much further south.
Quoting 2235. BahaHurican:

Trying not to make too big a shift.... somebody do post the Discussion .... not so interested in the Public Advisory right now.
Moving west but needs to go north?
Quoting 2224. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bursting convection is usually a sign something is going on. They need to go north!

Did you say north, Cody?

I wish there was a wind map as to how in the world these winds are actually working because there seems to be no reason as to why winds are in the directions they are.
Quoting 2250. VAbeachhurricanes:

At least Avila mentioned the thing we saw near PR


The "thing" was the original center..lol

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
Good night. Erika, you're foul.

Quoting 2240. catjojo:

Could someone direct me to where I would find the current wind sheer maps or share the link ?


[Link]
Quoting 2233. stormwatcherCI:

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre.


My post 2200

It could also be competing centres within a larger gyre.
2262. Mikla
Quoting 2240. catjojo:

Could someone direct me to where I would find the current wind sheer maps or share the link ?

link
2263. csmda
Quoting 2248. Hurricanes101:

If there is a reformation further south, it could easily put the Eastern Gulf in play if she was to survive


You take that back! I have lots of stuff to do over the next 2 weeks.
2264. sar2401
Quoting 2227. VAbeachhurricanes:

Still waiting on this discussion lol
Try CTRL+F5 to clear the cache. Worked for me, at any rate.
Quoting 2259. StormTrackerScott:


TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

Quoting 2259. StormTrackerScott:


TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH



Not all that strong


2 red blobs trying to become one, notice the northern blob is making its way to the southern blob, this is finally an organizing TS imo.
2267. sar2401
Quoting 2261. kmanislander:



My post 2200

It could also be competing centres within a larger gyre.

"alleged center"...I think that's the second time Avila has used that phrase. :-)
RIP ERICA THIS STORM IS NOT GONA BE A BIG RISK ANYMORE , it is expected to be a big rainmaker for days , but no big intensity not gona happen attm
We won't have a good forecast track until after the Dominican Republic finishes with Erika.
Quoting 2267. sar2401:

"alleged center"...I think that's the second time Avila has used that phrase. :-)


Maybe he practised law at some point in his career LOL
Quoting 2268. Camille33:

RIP ERICA THIS STORM IS NOT GONA BE A BIG RISK ANYMORE , it is expected to be a big rainmaker for days , but no big intensity not gona happen attm


sigh, some never learn
Quoting 2240. catjojo:

Could someone direct me to where I would find the current wind sheer maps or share the link ?
Should be updated in about an hour.Link Click Tropical Cyclone Group on the left.
Quoting 2224. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bursting convection is usually a sign something is going on. They need to go north!




I agree, it looks like on the satellite that a center is forming up there.
2274. GetReal


Well just as I pointed out late last evening, the center of Erika is very near where I predicted it would be, and has a date with Hispaniola ahead. IMO the center of Erika will follow the south side of the current NHC cone. I believe that Erika will continue to put on faux show. IF she survives the track across Hispaniola, maybe, just maybe she will have a chance at getting herself together over the southern Bahamas.

2275. SSL1441
Quoting 2256. BaltimoreBrian:

Manana, manana

Did you say north, Cody?




Just isn't any changing the mind of that GFDL is there? heh. Nope.
2276. sar2401
Quoting 2265. Tazmaniach:



Not all that strong
Maybe you can edit your quote to get rid of all the extraneous stuff. I take it you've never been in an 85 mph hurricane.
The center is forming SW of the strongest convection. You can see the air wanting to pile there.
Quoting 2265. Tazmaniach:



Not all that strong


85 mph. off of Flagler Beach is actually a big thing, and a very slow mover.. this can be devastating for Palm Coast.
2279. SSL1441
Quoting 2271. Hurricanes101:



sigh, some never learn


Nope. Never learn.... :/
2281. ncstorm
I say everyone just shut down his/her laptop and come back around I'm thinking 7'ish pm on Saturday?

Only way to be sure..

This storm according to most of the models should have been N of PR now and it is still about 2 degrees south!
Quoting 2273. reedzone:



I agree, it looks like on the satellite that a center is forming up there.


Whats up there is a small swirl that is now moving SW and weakening

What is further south around 15.2N has much more potential as west winds there were 20mph.
So if they can't really locate a true LLC, and it "lacks an inner core",per Avila, how can this still be classified as a TC? I don't get it. Shouldn't this now be downgraded to a remnant/open wave.
Quoting 2261. kmanislander:



My post 2200

It could also be competing centres within a larger gyre.

You nailed it. ... still it doesn't give us huge amounts of clarity regarding track and future intensity.

I'm giving in for the night .... perhaps PR will indeed get its rain overnight after all ....
in terms of its forecast Im not buying any of it what so ever until we can find out where its going to consolidate and its movement

but looking at steering charts I'd Say generally due W for atleast another day or so IMO if things stay status quo


Quoting 2284. Krycek1984:

So if they can't really locate a true LLC, and it "lacks an inner core",per Avila, how can this still be classified as a TC? I don't get it. Shouldn't this now be downgraded to a remnant/open wave.


no because the mean center is still closed and producting winds of TS force
...somewhere over the rainbow.......literally...
Quoting 2280. hurricanes2018:




I want to say rip Erica bye bye !
2290. sar2401
Quoting 2269. BaltimoreBrian:

We're not going to have a good forecast track until after the Dominican Republic finishes with Erika.
Of course, we knew that three days ago, yet it hasn't stopped thousands of posts filled with "East!"...West!"..."Monster!"...RIP!"...with thousands more yet to come. :-)
Drive 85mph down the freeway and stick your arm out the window. Now tell me if that wind couldnt do some Serious Damage to your house or property. We get afternoon storms with 60mph gusts that can push a tractor trailor sideways
If (and it's a big if) she survives PR and/or Hispanola, the westward creep of these tracks might start to make us SW Floridians a little nervous. Between the Bahamas and the Gulf, our water temps are the stuff hurricanes dream about.
This storm is so confusing they don't even know where it is actually going, hahahaha.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2285. BahaHurican:

You nailed it. ... still it doesn't give us huge amounts of clarity regarding track and future intensity.

I'm giving in for the night .... perhaps PR will indeed get its rain overnight after all ....


True, we have to wait and see where the centre consolidates. Time to head off for tonight. Catch you all in the morning.

Good night.
2296. guygee
If Erika actually does survive, for my penance I will be trimming the huge branches overhanging my house all weekend.
Quoting 2278. reedzone:



85 mph. off of Flagler Beach is actually a big thing, and a very slow mover.. this can be devastating for Palm Coast.


I keep trying to remind people that the worst storm we've gotten in Palm Beach County the last 15 years was Wilma, whose top sustained winds at PBIA were "only" 85 mph.
2298. maeko
The Charleston County EOC peeps started getting antsy today. I was reassured by no less than four emails that we are at OPCON 5 and to make sure my handy hurricane-proof plastic trash bag was ready to be draped over my desktop. The supervisors made sure we all had the latest & greatest emergency contact list so there will be no question as to whether I can reach my coworkers at 2am before the ‘drop-dead’ to ask, “Have they called it?!” The poor noobs don't even know they'll have to run triage if she landfalls...
Recon headed to the NW quad to investigate the St. Croix vortice. The novela continues.
2300. ncstorm
After reading that discussion you do realize the 00z model runs will be useless..if the HH can't find a center how will the models initialize correctly..

Quoting 2300. ncstorm:

After reading that discussion you do realize the 00z model runs will be useless..if the HH can't find a center how will the models initialize correctly..




The GFS will have it hitting Brazil. Mark my words, and then throw said works into an incinerator.
2303. emguy
Well, I take many things from that. Generally speaking however, this is all seeming to go to plan. It's widely been known that Erika would struggle in this section of real estate, but the storm is holding it's own.

In these situations, it's also not uncommon to hear of small swirls around a common center. In fact, Katrina was one of these until the storm could establish a center in the 24 hours prior to Florida landfall. The system overall has a large circulation envelope. That will not spin down any time soon. It's reasonable to believe that will survive hostile conditions such as shear and land the next 36 hours. After that, look at the definition of the overall circulation envelope and we will get an idea about how fast it begins to recover in the Bahamas.

If conditions are favorable there, and the storm recovers...it will be concerning. Outside the northwest Carribean, the history of "Bahama Boomers" is robust if conditions are favorable. Storms do like to rapidly intensify there. Worst case example being the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Went from TD to Cat 5 VERY FAST!

Hang tight 36 hours folks...then we will know. Nothing much doing but steady state WAS expected in the northeast Carribean. If you expected more...you expected too much!

Quoting 2234. hullwx:

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.
Quoting 2266. stormpetrol:



2 red blobs trying to become one, notice the northern blob is making its way to the southern blob, this is finally an organizing TS imo.

This double blobbed thing is looking pretty healthy, considering all the shear. It will probably survive whatever interaction it has with PR and Hispaniola, unfortunately.
Cute.

Quoting 2299. MiamiHurricanes09:

Recon headed to the NW quad to investigate the St. Croix vortice. The novela continues.


One of these coc's needs to win out so we can finally get some sort of coherent idea of where it's going... preferibly by tomorrow morning.


2307. GetReal


Very strong high pressure to the north of Erika, that is currently ridging further west tonight. Erika is closely following the steering pattern westward, and ignoring the model and NHC forecast points that want to push Erika NW. These model forecast and NHC forecast points are flying in the face of logic at this point in time.
Quoting 2296. guygee:

If Erika actually does survive, for my penance I will be trimming the huge branches overhanging my house all weekend.
I'm thinking about doing the same thing at my house
Quoting 2266. stormpetrol:



2 red blobs trying to become one, notice the northern blob is making its way to the southern blob, this is finally an organizing TS imo.


Well I stated earlier that with the two main spins the one S and the other N near S PR both which has convection

I stated that the one with the highest/coldest convection will maybe win out

The spin near S PR is moving WSW now and becoming less defined so that plus the N blob is shifting S we can guess who is the winner here
the center is just south o fPonce

Quoting 2266. stormpetrol:



2 red blobs trying to become one, notice the northern blob is making its way to the southern blob, this is finally an organizing TS imo.
This is a variation of an IR MB curve. The red is only showing colder temps, i.e. Higher clouds. I. This case it is cirrus blowoff from all the thunderstorms associated with the system. These clouds move independent of the storms that create them and are not alone indicative of any movement or development. You would need to confirm with other metsat (visual, microwave) as well as radar and observations to determine if the convective cells were indeed coming together.
2312. JRRP
2313. SSL1441
Quoting 2303. emguy:

Well, I take many things from that. Generally speaking however, this is all seeming to go to plan. It's widely been known that Erika would struggle in this section of real estate, but the storm is holding it's own.

In these situations, it's also not uncommon to hear of small swirls around a common center. In fact, Katrina was one of these until the storm could establish a center in the 24 hours prior to Florida landfall. The system overall has a large circulation envelope. That will not spin down any time soon. It's reasonable to believe that will survive hostile conditions such as shear and land the next 36 hours. After that, look at the definition of the overall circulation envelope and we will get an idea about how fast it begins to recover in the Bahamas.

If conditions are favorable there, and the storm recovers...it will be concerning. Outside the northwest Carribean, the history of "Bahama Boomers" is robust if conditions are favorable. Storms do like to rapidly intensify there. Worst case example being the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Went from TD to Cat 5 VERY FAST!

Hang tight 36 hours folks...then we will know. Nothing much doing but steady state WAS expected in the northeast Carribean. If you expected more...you expected too much!




Someone give this guy a medal. Smartest post I've seen here all night, and I'm not at all joking or being sarcastic here.
2314. MahFL
Quoting 2306. ElConando:



One of these coc's needs to win out so we can finally get some sort of coherent idea of where it's going... preferibly by tomorrow morning.





For the 3 day period they know where it is going, use the 3 day cone.
Quoting 2282. stormpetrol:

This storm according to most of the models should have been N of PR now and it is still about 2 degrees south!


I think it may go on or along the S coast of DR IMO
2316. sigh
Not.
Quoting 2307. GetReal:



Very strong high pressure to the north of Erika, that is currently ridging further west tonight. Erika is closely following the steering pattern westward, and ignoring the model and NHC forecast points that want to push Erika NW. These model forecast and NHC forecast points are flying in the face of logic at this point in time.
I agree.
Quoting 1996. allancalderini:

Cariboy are you getting the rain you want? I hope it help to relief the drought conditions in the island you are. Forgot which one it was .


Well, Erika hasn't brought much rain. The Meteo France station barely recorded 7mm during the last 24h. Another station recorded 13mm in the NE side of the island (St Bart's).

This won't help much, but it's a beginning. Sep/Oct/Nov are our wettest months, but 2015 is an EL NINO year... so I'm not too confident that we will get much rain during that period this year.
2319. SSL1441
Quoting 2316. sigh:

1. Erika is not getting organized.
2. Erika is not getting stacked.
3. Erika will not get organized or stacked at any point in the next 24 hours. It is just now entering into the most hostile shear environment it has encountered — it's not going to get more organized while battling greater shear.
4. Random bursts of convection mean nothing.
5. The center is not reforming under the latest random burst of convection.
6. The center is not reforming under the mass of convection that has remained well to the east of the center for days.
7. If at any point in the next 24 hours you are tempted to think Erika is really getting organized and is going to start strengthening, read points 1 through 6 over and over again until you understand that you are wrong.
8. There's a fairly good chance Erika will dissipate over the next 24 hours, so...
9. Unless you live in PR/DR, you should probably find something to do more worthwhile than paying attention to Erika until, say, Saturday morning — nothing noteworthy is going to happen with the storm before then anyway.

Thank you. That is all.


Nope, they never learn.
Quoting 2305. BaltimoreBrian:

Cute.




This is what happened last night. The storm spit out the LLC and it just went away.
Then the new one reformed a bit to the south. That's what's happening now. We all
know that the new LLC will be south of where they are calling it now, and it might even
miss PR/DR. As I am looking at Erika and with her moving "West" I'm not even sure if
she will even go WNW until late tomorrow. That would put it going over Cuba then the
Florida Straights... I could be wrong but as long as she is moving west at that speed,
then a east gulf coast would not be to far out of the question.... just saying

Taco :o)
2321. Michfan
One Decade Later: A Look Back at Hurricane Katrina's Wrath
Link
Great photos on this 10-year look back.
2323. Michfan
Quoting 2313. SSL1441:



Someone give this guy a medal. Smartest post I've seen here all night, and I'm not at all joking or being sarcastic here.


em has posted many quality informative posts over the years..........good to see you em!
2325. Michfan
GFS dissipates it after 36 hours.

I like WELL ORGANIZED storms ...





Maybe in 2016.
Safe to say this storm is toast folks. Erika continues to be disorganized and now models see it and dissipate it...very good
Since I am smarter than a fifth grader I say Erica hangsout in the Caribbean and moves into the gulf by that time the upper level winds will have came down andbit makes it to the east and central gulf
2330. K8eCane

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is anticipated later today, and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several
hours and move near or over portions of the Dominican Republic later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. St. Thomas recently reported a wind gust to 48 mph
(78 km/h), and a Puerto Rico Seismic Network station at Yabucoa
Harbor in southeastern Puerto Rico recently reported a wind gust of
47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting the Virgin
Islands and portions of Puerto Rico, and will continue for the next
several hours. These conditions should spread westward across
portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas by late
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
porti
2331. K8eCane
Maybe at 5 am the NHC will go ahead and STICK A FORK in her lol
Good morning everyone. This storm is just sitting there in the E Car ....



Quoting 2307. GetReal:



Very strong high pressure to the north of Erika, that is currently ridging further west tonight. Erika is closely following the steering pattern westward, and ignoring the model and NHC forecast points that want to push Erika NW. These model forecast and NHC forecast points are flying in the face of logic at this point in time.
Last time I looked at this the high was oriented differently and wasn't so far west .... at this rate NHC will have to issue TS warnings for JA and SE Cuba before Erika comes this way ..... :o/

This is one annoying storm. Feels like payback for a having such a good experience with Danny ....
Quoting 2315. wunderkidcayman:



I think it may go on or along the S coast of DR IMO
I'm starting to think something similar ...


New Warnings and Watches up for the rest of the Bahamas and Hispaniola....
Serious track shift in the short term.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 280850
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Erika remains disorganized, with the deep convection decreasing in
coverage and intensity to the east of the estimated center position
during the past few hours. Despite this, the cyclone continues to
produce a large area of tropical storm force winds east of the
center, and the initial intensity of 45 kt and central pressure of
1006 mb are based on recent surface observations from Puerto Rico.

The center of Erika continues to be rather disorganized, and the
initial position and motion of 290/15 are based on a blend of
satellite imagery and continuity. While the overall track forecast
reasoning has not changed, the initial position and motion and
an overall weaker depiction of Erika in the global models have
resulted in a leftward shift in the track guidance this cycle and
an increase in the forward speed. A west-northwestward motion is
expected for the first couple of days as Erika moves around the
southern periphery of the subtropical ridge to the north. After that
time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast as Erika moves around the western edge of the
ridge. The new NHC track is to the left of and faster than the
previous advisory and is near the multi model consensus through 36
hours. After that time, the NHC track is east of almost all the
guidance out of respect to continuity. Needless to say, confidence
in the track forecast, especially after 48 hours, remains very low
given that the details of the track depend on how much the cyclone
recovers from the shear and the effects of land interaction in the
short term.

Strong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the
next day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with
Hispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even
dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming that the cyclone
survives, there is an opportunity for some intensification on days
2 and 3 of the forecast period as the shear decreases, and that is
reflected in the NHC forecast. After that time, since the NHC track
now takes Erika inland over the Florida peninsula, weakening is
shown at days 4 and 5. Much of the guidance has trended weaker this
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the
IVCN consensus. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very
low.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could
produce flash floods and mud slides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 25.6N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 30.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
New blog????!!!!!
2338. Times2
What?