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July 2015: Warmest Month on Record Globally

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 9:56 PM GMT on August 20, 2015

The Atlantic and Pacific tropics were buzzing with activity on Thursday (see bottom of this post for a very brief update), but Thursday brought other big news as well: July 2015 was the warmest single month in 1627 months of global records that go back to January 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The globally averaged temperature above both land and ocean surfaces was 1.46°F (0.81°C) ahead of the 20th-century average. This trumps the record for any month that was set in July 1998, surpassing that value by 0.08°F (0.14°C). On average, July is the warmest month of the year globally, tpyically driven by midsummer conditions across the Northern Hemisphere’s extensive land areas. However, according to NOAA, record warmth across much of the Pacific and Indian oceans played a major role in July’s new global record. NASA also rated July 2015 as the warmest July on record. July 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - July) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continues to intensify, and strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it extremely likely that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2015, the warmest single month for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Large areas of record warmth were analyzed across many parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans, as well as in northern South America, southeast Africa, and parts of southern Europe. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Global satellite-measured temperatures in July 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 10th warmest in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of several months--as occurred during the El Niño events of 1998 and 2010. Thus, we should see Earth's lower atmosphere temperature hit record levels late this year and/or early in 2016.

Deadliest weather disaster of July 2015: monsoon floods in Asia
The deadliest weather-related disaster of July 2015 was flooding in Asia due to the annual monsoon, which claimed over 200 lives in Pakistan, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, and China. Severe flooding in these countries continued during the first ten days of August, bringing the total monsoon death toll to over 400, as reported by Bob Henson in his August 11 post.


Figure 2. Navigating a flooded area of Peshawar, Pakistan, on July 26, 2015. Torrential rains and floods in Pakistan left 36 dead and affected more than 250,000 people, disaster management officials said July 25, with swollen rivers and water channels damaging hundreds of villages. Photo credit: A Majeed/AFP/Getty Images.



Two billion-dollar weather disasters in July 2015 in China
Two billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, both in China, according to the July 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: Typhoon Chan-hom ($1.6 billion in damage) and flooding July 20 - 24 that caused $1.2 billion in damage. With twelve billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2015, Earth is on pace for its lowest number of such disasters since 2004, when sixteen occurred.


Disaster 1. Typhoon Chan-hom made landfall about 80 mi south-southeast of Shanghai, China on July 11, killing 16 people and doing at least $1.5 billion in damage. The typhoon did another $100 million in damage to Guam, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea. In this image, we see people watching huge waves from Chan-hom pounding Wenling, in east China's Zhejiang province, on July 10, 2015. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Heavy rainfall in China from July 20 - 24 killed 28 people and did $1.2 billion in damage. More than 238,000 residents were evacuated as floods and landslides destroyed 7,770 homes and damaged 35,100. In this picture, we see vehicles stranded on a flooded road in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, on July 23, 2015, when 160.2 millimeters (6.31") hit the city. This was their heaviest daily rainfall since 1998, according to Changjiang Times. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images.

Arctic sea ice falls to 8th lowest July extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during July 2015 was the 8th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A large area of high pressure set up shop north of Alaska, and a strong area of low pressure formed over Northeastern Eurasia. The circulation around these features brought sunny skies and a warm flow of air into the Arctic that led to rapid ice loss. This Arctic Dipole pattern also occurred in all the summer months of 2007, and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent. (Note that the record was beaten in 2012, a year that did not feature an Arctic Dipole pattern.) The Arctic Dipole pattern diminished in early August 2015, but substantial melting has continued into the middle of the month.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for July 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.8°C (127.0°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, July 30
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -22.5°C (-8.5°F) at Summit, Greenland, July 30
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 37.6°C (99.7°F) at Floriano, Brazil, July 10
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -80.2°C (-112.4°F) at Dome A, Antarctica, July 2

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in July 2015
Akkuduk (Kazakhstan) max. 46.8°C July 1
Boulogne sur Mer (France) max. 35.4C° July 1
Melun (France) max. 39.4°C July 1
Dieppe (France) max. 38.3°C July 1
Urumita (Colombia) max. 42.2°C July 1
Dzhusaly (Kazakhstan) max. 46.2°C July 2
Volkel (Netherlands) max. 36.9°C July 2
Twenthe (Netherlands) max. 36.1°C July 2
Leeuwarden (Netherlands) max. 34.0°C July 2
Valledupar-Villa Rosa (Colombia) max. 42.4°C July 3
Bad Lippspringe (Germany) max. 37.9°C July 4
Giessen (Germany) max. 38.1°C July 4
Repelon (Colombia) max. 40.9°C July 4
Frankfurt (Germany) max. 39.0°C July 5
Ohringen (Germany) max. 38.5°C July 5
Wurzburg (Germany) max. 38.6°C July 5
Kiztingen (Germany) max. 40.3°C July 5, New national record high for Germany
Kahl (Germany) max. 39.8°C July 5
Bad Durkheim (Germany) max. 39.7°C July 5
Neunkirchen (Germany) max. 39.2°C July 5
Hannover City (Germany) max. 39.0°C July 5
Aigle (Switzerland) max. 36.1°C July 5
Gerona Airport (Spain) max. 41.3°C July 5
Gerona St Daniels (Spain) max. 42.2°C July 5
Cienfuegos (Cuba) max. 37.0°C July 6
Barcelonette (France) max. 34.3°C July 6
Mende (France) max. 36.1°C July 6
Gap (France) max. 36.9°C July 6
Saint-Martin-d’Heres (France) max. 40.7°C July 7
Lezigneux (France) max. 39.9°C July 7
Embrun (France) max. 36.7°C July 7
St Etienne (France) max. 41.1°C July 7
Sainte-Leocadie (France) max. 35.4°C July 7
Grenada Airport (Spain) max. 43.1°C July 7
Grenada City (Spain) max. 43.9°C July 7
Lerida (Spain) max. 43.1°C July 7
Zaragoza (Spain) max. 44.5°C July 7
Geneva (Switzerland) max. 39.7°C July 7
Nyon/Changins (Switzerland) max. 38.0°C July 7
Payerne (Switzerland) max. 37.9°C July 7
Neuchatel (Switzerland) max. 37.8°C July 7
Fribourg (Switzerland) max. 36.6°C July 7
Neuenburg (Switzerland) max. 37.8°C July 7
Wynau (Switzerland) max. 37.2°C July 7
Evolene (Switzerland) max. 28.4°C July 7
Plaffeien (Switzerland) max. 32.0°C July 7
La Fretaz (Switzerland) max. 29.9°C July 7
Oberstdorf (Germany) max. 35.6°C July 7
Innsbruck City (Austria) max. 38.2°C July 7
Qaanaaq (Greenland/Denmark) max. 20.4°C July 8
Ardebil (Iran) max. 40.2°C July 10
Jucaro (Cuba) max. 36.8°C July 10
Riohacha (Colombia) max. 40.6°C July 13
Yuzawa (Japan) max. 36.8°C July 13
Washikura (Japan) max. 29.0°C July 13
Tajima (Japan) max. 34.8°C July 13
Niitsu (Japan) max. 37.9°C July 13
Ogata (Japan) max. 38.3°C July 13
Uozu (Japan) max. 37.9°C July 13
Nanao (Japan) max. 37.4°C July 13
Yamada (Japan) max. 37.5°C July 14
Kasenuma (Japan) max. 36.7°C July 14
Marumori (Japan) max. 37.6°C July 14
Yanagawa (Japan) max. 39.1°C July 14
Kawauchi (Japan) max. 35.7°C July 14
Ononimachi (Japan) max. 35.8°C July 14
Buzaubaj (Uzbekistan) max. 48.2°C July 14
Limoges Airport (France) max. 37.3°C July 16
Grazzanise (Italy) max. 39.8°C July 17
Split Airport (Croatia) max. 39.4°C July 18
Krems (Austria) max. 38.3°C July 19
Senj (Croatia) max. 39.7°C July 22
Rab (Croatia) max. 39.3°C July 22
Zadar Airport (Croatia) max. 39.0°C July 22
Zavizan (Croatia) max. 28.3°C July 22
Ronchi dei Legionari (Italy) max. 39.2°C July 22
Aviano (Italy) max. 38.3°C July 22
Vsetin (Czech Republic) max. 36.8°C July 22
Osako (Japan) max. 36.4°C July 22
Esashi (Japan) max. 37.2°C July 22
Kanayama (Japan) max. 36.1°C July 22
Altai (China) max. 39.5°C July 22
Hoboksar (China) max. 37.7°C July 22
Kaba He (China) max. 41.0°C July 22
Korla (China) max. 40.5°C July 24
Jucaro (Cuba) max. 37.0°C July 28
Contramaestre (Cuba) max. 38.2°C July 29
Isabel Rubio Airport (Cuba) max. 36.3°C July 29
Indio Hatuey (Cuba) max. 38.1°C July 30
Kirkuk (Iraq) max. 50.0°C July 30
Najaf (Iraq) max. 51.5°C July 30
Kanaqin (Iraq) max. 52.0°C July 30
Salahaddin (Iraq) max. 41.1°C July 31
Meigetsu (Japan) max. 37.8°C July 31
Vize Island (Russia) max. 9.2°C July 31



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of August 14, 2015, ten nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history in 2015, and one (Israel) set an all-time cold temperature record. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the all-time national or territorial heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Hong Kong set its national heat record on August 9, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.
Germany set a new national heat record of 40.3°C (104.5°F) twice this year: on July 5 and on August 7, at the Kitzingen station in Bavaria.
Vietnam tied its national heat record of 42.7°C (108.9°F) at Con Cuong on May 30.
Palau tied its national heat record of 34.4°C (94.0°F) at Koror Airport on May 14.
Venezuela set a new national heat record of 43.6°C (110.5°F) at Coro on April 29.
Laos tied its national heat record of 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Thakhek on April 20.
Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This is the third time this year Ghana has tied or set a new all-time heat record.
Cocos Islands (Australian territory) tied their all-time heat record with 32.8°C (91.0°F) on April 8.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.

Israel set a new national cold record of -14.2°C (6.4°F) at Merom Golan on January 10.

Special Mentions:
Antarctica set a new heat record for its mainland of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent. Note that this is a record for mainland Antarctica, not a territorial or continental record. The all-time maximum record for the continent and territory of Antarctica is 19.8°C (67.6°F) on January 30, 1982, in Signy Island, South Orkney, an island group located about 450 miles northeast of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost portion of mainland Antarctica. Geologically, the South Orkney are on the Antarctic plate, and politically, they are part of Antarctica. This record was improperly listed as a territorial record for Antarctica in May's global summary.

Switzerland had its highest reliably measured temperature on record in Geneva on July 7, when the mercury hit 103.5°F (39.7°C). The only higher temperature ever measured in the country was a 106.7°F (41.5°C) reading on August 11, 2003 at Grono. As reported at the Swiss news site swissinfo.ch, this old record was achieved "using an old measurement technique of weather huts, which generally recorded temperatures a few degrees higher than modern instruments." Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera agrees that this year's 39.7°C reading in Geneva is the highest reliably measured temperature ever in Switzerland, though the August 11, 2003 temperature at Grono was probably warmer (near 40°C), after correcting for the known problems with the site.

Samoa was originally listed by Mr. Herrera as tying its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau, but a subsequent review of the record revealed possible issues with the measurement equipment, so this record is dubious.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for July 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in July 2015" sections.

Danny strengthens slightly; 93C likely to become Hurricane Kilo and approach Hawaii
Tiny Hurricane Danny continues to gradually strengthen in the central Atlantic. At 5:00 p.m. EDT, Danny’s top sustained winds were up to 80 mph. Danny was still located far out to sea—more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands, moving west-northwest at just 10 mph—and there are no major changes to the outlook for Danny from our post this morning. Meanwhile, Invest 93C has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 3 in the central Pacific, and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center projects TD 3-C to become Hurricane Kilo by Saturday, perhaps curving toward the western Hawaiian islands as a Category 2 hurricane by Monday. We’ll have a full update on both systems by 1 PM ET Friday. See also Steve Gregory’s update from earlier this afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Approaching the eye

Time: 16:10:00Z
Coordinates: 14.067N 49.067W
Acft. Static Air Press: 641.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,871 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1008.0 mb (29.77 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 18 at 22 kts (From the NNE at 25.3 mph)
Air Temp: 6.0C (42.8F)
Dew Pt: 3.6C (38.5F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 23 kts (26.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 32 kts (36.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (0.00 in/hr)

1502. VR46L
Modis ~ Danny ~ a couple of hrs ago

Quoting 1497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


04L/MICROMH/D/C3


a hyper storm


It says category 3?
Quoting 1493. MahFL:



Shrinking eyes in hurricanes normally means the wind speed is increasing.
yeah but shear may chop his head off and we end up with a hurricane swirl
Quoting 1504. LostTomorrows:



It says category 3?
yeah that's likely what it is called like its seen
Link

One minute rapid scan loop of Danny. Much better than model porn in my opinion! Enjoy!
1508. Patrap
Quoting 1504. LostTomorrows:



It says category 3?


"channel 3" on the sat receiver is the stamp
Quoting 1496. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Does out mean kaputz?


Yes but without the benefit of on-site recon. Once the NOAA Gulf-Stream gets in later in the period and starts taking upper level air samples (as well as the other recon flights between now and then), all that info will go into the models and the current outcomes may change. Given the forecasting difficulties with such a small storm, if the GFS turns out to be correct, in human terms, it will turn out to be the equivalent of a "lucky" guess...................
There's some increasing TCHP/SSTs temps that Danny is moving over which could help it strengthen a little more with shear still in the 10-20kt range over the majority of the system. Some more intense convection firing around the eye-wall which looks like it's helped tighten the eye a little:

1511. MahFL
Intensely cold cloud tops around the eye, you can see white in the black :


I'm actually very surprised at the wind they found so far either storm is huge bark but puppy dog bite or the wind field is microscopic lol
nvm
1515. Grothar
Going to ride the spine


1517. Patrap



Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 16:10Z
Date: August 21, 2015
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 10
16:10:00Z 14.067N 49.067W 641.8 mb

(~ 18.95 inHg) 3,871 meters
(~ 12,700 feet) 1008.0 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 18° at 22 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 25.3 mph) 6.0°C
(~ 42.8°F) 3.6°C
(~ 38.5°F) 23 knots
(~ 26.5 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 30.6 knots (~ 35.2 mph)
139.1%

At 16:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 667 statue miles (1,074 km) to the E (84°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

At 16:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 712 statue miles (1,146 km) to the E (85°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Quoting 1507. typhoonty:

Link

One minute rapid scan loop of Danny. Much better than model porn in my opinion! Enjoy!

This is spectacular! Thank you for sharing!
Quoting 1517. Patrap:




Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 16:10Z
Date: August 21, 2015
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 10
16:10:00Z 14.067N 49.067W 641.8 mb

(~ 18.95 inHg) 3,871 meters
(~ 12,700 feet) 1008.0 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 18° at 22 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 25.3 mph) 6.0°C
(~ 42.8°F) 3.6°C
(~ 38.5°F) 23 knots
(~ 26.5 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 30.6 knots (~ 35.2 mph)
139.1%

At 16:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 667 statue miles (1,074 km) to the E (84°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

At 16:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 712 statue miles (1,146 km) to the E (85°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.



This is real neat stuff
Quoting 1510. Envoirment:

There's some increasing TCHP/SSTs temps that Danny is moving over which could help it strengthen a little more with shear still in the 10-20kt range over the majority of the system. Some more intense convection firing around the eye-wall which looks like it's helped tighten the eye a little:


I see an area of very intense of convection has popped up on the eyewall, it looks like it will spread around the eyewall very soon.
First pass, lowest extrapolated MSLP I saw was 968.6 millibars.
Time: 16:19:00Z
Coordinates: 14.083N 48.367W
Acft. Static Air Press: 666.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,343 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 969.3 mb (28.63 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 266° at 65 kts (From the W at 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Dew Pt: 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 kts (81.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 74 kts* (85.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 36 mm/hr* (1.42 in/hr*)
Quoting 1515. Grothar:

Going to ride the spine



all the way in
1524. Patrap
Quoting 1515. Grothar:

Going to ride the spine





a la Georges 98'

Quoting 1503. Climate175:




Hmm I'm gonna go with GFS BAMM on this one
Recon finding pressures of less than 970 mb:



And they just missed the center of the storm. Pressure of around 965 mb looks likely. Also the highest winds will be in the northeastern quadrant. Such a small storm though, they could be easily missed.
Forecaster Brennan, was actually spot on 36 hours ago when he took the leap of faith and went on record to note that he felt that dry air would not be an issue for Danny and that it would be able to mix out the dry air; Danny has done exactly that.
Quoting 1520. Climate175:

I see a dot of very intense of convection has popped up on the eyewall, it looks like it will spread around the eyewall very soon.
he is fighting and hard
1529. IDTH
Danny is looking like a classic major right now, I saw the shear map and shear decreased a little bit out in front of him, I wonder if it has better chance of survival than we all think.
Quoting 1525. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm I'm gonna go with GFS BAMM on this one


of course you are... you want it to come as close to the Caymans as possible
Tropical Atlantic site overloaded :-).

If you exit you won't get back in !
1532. Patrap
Quoting 1530. scottsvb:



of course you are... you want it to come as close to the Caymans as possible



Home-casting is a trait one cannot have in Forecasting..as it is, "I say, I say, I say dat is biased to biased",...malarky"

Says Leghorn Foghorn
The fact that Danny is a very small hurricane coupled with the notion that recon estimates a 969mb pressure while still missing the center is quite indicative of a very tight and powerful hurricane.
Years that end with a "5" are magical in the atlantic.2013 and 2014 couldn't produce a well oragnized storm in the MDR for nothing.
1535. Patrap
Quoting 1531. kmanislander:

Tropical Atlantic site overloaded :-).

If you exit you won't get back in !


I bet the clicks here are adding to dat easily..like 1,2 million or so..
Quoting 1525. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm I'm gonna go with GFS BAMM on this one


Now that's being real objective.
ime: 16:19:00Z
Coordinates: 14.083N 48.367W
Acft. Static Air Press: 666.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,343 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 969.3 mb (28.63 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 266° at 65 kts (From the W at 74.8 mph)
Air Temp: 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Dew Pt: 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 kts (81.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 74 kts* (85.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 36 mm/hr* (1.42 in/hr*)
Action: Quote | Ignore User
I wondered what was happening....well, those of you who are in please keep posting :)
Quoting 1531. kmanislander:

Tropical Atlantic site overloaded :-).

If you exit you won't get back in !
Quoting 1524. Patrap:



a la Georges 98'




Made landfall in like 8 countries (maybe two states if the eye went over Key West)...without a passport
Quoting 1535. Patrap:



I bet the clicks here are adding to dat easily..like 1,2 million or so..


Exactly
Quoting 1531. kmanislander:

Tropical Atlantic site overloaded :-).

If you exit you won't get back in !

Yelp it happened to me but I lost internet and lost everything
I was looking at....
Now I can't get back on any of them

Taco :o)
1543. Patrap
Seems it went down..klunk.

Hmm, eye's WUnder why?

Can everyone please get off tropical Atlantic so I can have my eyewall radar scans, thanks.
1545. Grothar
Quoting 1512. GeoffreyWPB:




You can see the wind sheer approaching Danny. That thin streamer thats heading his way looks like the leading edge.. However, you can see on the back side, towards the northern leewards, that there are stationary clouds that arent moving a whole lot. I do not think sheer is going to be an issue, and if it is, it wont be for long. That is a very narrow band of 20-30kt sheer that Danny should pass through in matter of 4-6hrs.
Does anyone actually think this will weaken to TS in 48 hours?
1548. Patrap
we're gonna need a bigger server'
Quoting 1535. Patrap:



I bet the clicks here are adding to dat easily..like 1,2 million or so..


Per person too. haha
Recon just found some flight-level winds of 111kts and 105kts just to the east of the eye:


162030 1411N 04817W 6398 03704 9831 072 //// 150107 111 061 004 05
162100 1411N 04816W 6390 03774 9941 048 //// 148100 105 /// /// 05

Hopefully they'll sample to the northeast of the eye, but it's certainly looking more likely that Danny is a category 3.
Damn

Time: 16:20:30Z
Coordinates: 14.183N 48.283W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,704 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 983.1 mb (29.03 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 150° at 107 kts (From the SSE at 123.1 mph)
Air Temp: 7.2°C* (45.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 111 kts (127.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 kts* (70.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr* (0.16 in/hr*)
1552. Gearsts
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago
111 kt at the 640mb level supports Cat 3 intensity
Quoting 1546. swflEagle:



You can see the wind sheer approaching Danny. That thin streamer thats heading his way looks like the leading edge.. However, you can see on the back side, towards the northern leewards, that there are stationary clouds that arent moving a whole lot. I do not think sheer is going to be an issue, and if it is, it wont be for long. That is a very narrow band of 20-30kt sheer that Danny should pass through in matter of 4-6hrs.


Amazing stuff!!!

Danny has been a very interesting system because of it's size and it's tenacity, however It looks like he is about to meet his maker and walk through the valley of death. I doubt very much he will be able to overcome the increasing shear and dry air which lay ahead. I hope Danny will be able to hold itself together as a strong tropical wave by the time it reaches the SE coast of Florida as we could use the rain in a big way, but I'm afraid by that time (late next week) there won't be anything left of him.
The convection around the eye has become deep and the eye its self has become perfectly round as well.
Quoting 1550. Envoirment:

Recon just found some flight-level winds of 111kts and 105kts just to the east of the eye:


162030 1411N 04817W 6398 03704 9831 +072 //// 150107 111 061 004 05
162100 1411N 04816W 6390 03774 9941 +048 //// 148100 105 /// /// 05

Hopefully they'll sample to the northeast of the eye, but by the looks of things it certainly looking more likely that Danny is indeed a category 3.
o it is I am normally never wrong with the call

Quoting 1552. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago
111 kt at the 640mb level supports Cat 3 intensity


at flight level but not at the surface
Quoting 1552. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago
111 kt at the 640mb level supports Cat 3 intensity


Many of us have been saying that all morning but we have to wait to see the sampling of the strongest winds and the reduction for surface wind speed.
Quoting 1552. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago
111 kt at the 640mb level supports Cat 3 intensity
wow!!
Danny will not quit. Ring of red filling in around the eye now (maybe those warmer SSTs at work?). The burst is obscuring the eye some, but it's still very much there.

Quoting 1552. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago
111 kt at the 640mb level supports Cat 3 intensity


Psssssh wow...

The stronger he gets, the stronger he can potentially be further down the road when the ride gets bumpy. Today is a big day for little Danny.
1562. ackee
Hwrf was right with Danny intensity after all
The plane is currently setting up to make a pass through the northeast of the system (where the highest winds will be). Should be a very exiting pass and hopefully they'll pass right through the center this time. :)
I got in...

16:20:30Z 14.183N 48.283W 639.8 mb
(~ 18.90 inHg) 3,704 meters
(~ 12,152 feet) 983.1 mb
(~ 29.03 inHg) - From 150° at 107 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 123.1 mph)
1565. Gearsts
So should i get worried about Danny now?
I would pay to see a live webcam streaming from the P3, that would be pretty incredible.


The core of tiny Hurricane Danny with an eyewall and sprawling rainbands.
SRSO imagery

Quoting 1562. ackee:

Hwrf was right with Danny intensity after all
I am amazed to be honest and dumbfounded lets see what other tricks its capable of shall we
1570. IDTH
Hopefully this helps the model runs as well and they get a better understanding of how strong Danny is and the environment around him
Quoting 1525. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm I'm gonna go with GFS BAMM on this one


Also 12Z UKMET for about 72hrs


Anyway RECON passed near the centre just missed it anyway lowest pressure 968mb which is just incredible sadly sfc wind show 75-80mph hurricane flight level wind however are in the 100s

Quoting 1565. Gearsts:

So should i get worried about Danny now?


I'm not so sure just yet. But if you look what George and or Fredrick did
you might want to be on "Standby" just saying

Taco :o)
B-e-a-utiful radar images. Can see a probable ERC occurring.

16:17Z


16:22Z
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)
1575. GetReal
The models a few days ago showed shear not being much of a issue and a intensifying storm headed for the islands.Danny continues to carry himself well despite dry air.He has managed to mix that out on several occasions even when he was at his lowest point.Danny is just one of those storms that refuse to give up.
Quoting 1560. MAweatherboy1:

Danny will not quit. Ring of red filling in around the eye now (maybe those warmer SSTs at work?). The burst is obscuring the eye some, but it's still very much there.




There's a nice pool of substaintial TCHP at 50W with SSTs of over 28C (current SSTs under danny are around 27.5-28C). If shear can keep at bay until he reaches that pool, we could see Danny strengthen even more.

Also, given that Danny is now very likely (almost certainly) a category 3, this will have a big impact on the future of the system. Can't wait for the next NHC forecast!
1578. ncstorm
96 hours

Quoting 1552. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 2m2 minutes ago
111 kt at the 640mb level supports Cat 3 intensity
Must be sustained for one minute, so I don't get what your saying Levi (and Gearts). So far 30 sec and 10 sec. Can they extrapolate cat 3 near surface 1 in sustained from that?

Add:
Quoting 1551. VAbeachhurricanes:

Damn

Time: 16:20:30Z
Coordinates: 14.183N 48.283W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,704 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 983.1 mb (29.03 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 150 at 107 kts (From the SSE at 123.1 mph)
Air Temp: 7.2C* (45.0F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 111 kts (127.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 kts* (70.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr* (0.16 in/hr*)
1581. ncstorm
a stronger storm will track north of the Islands..

a weaker storm will go west..

the NHC will have to adjust their track and shift it north..

1582. Relix
Dry air/Shear or Danny? I am rooting for Danny, he's an overachiever.
1583. IDTH
Quoting 1562. ackee:

Hwrf was right with Danny intensity after all

May have actually underestimated him.
Quoting 1581. ncstorm:

a stronger storm will track north of the Islands..

a weaker storm will go west..

the NHC will have to adjust their track and shift it north..




stronger storms don't always track further north, it depends on the steering currents.
1585. ncstorm
and IF Danny got up to a Cat 4 storm it will make its own steering path..

1586. Grothar
This should change soon

How soon do we start seeing some Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches for the Leeward Islands?
I don't think shear will kill him. I think the mountains will.
1589. Gearsts
Quoting 1581. ncstorm:

a stronger storm will track north of the Islands..

a weaker storm will go west..

the NHC will have to adjust their track and shift it north..


Danny is stronger now but shear and dry air still there.
1590. Drakoen
Looks like Danny may be intensifying as they are sampling.
1591. Relix
Quoting 1581. ncstorm:

a stronger storm will track north of the Islands..

a weaker storm will go west..

the NHC will have to adjust their track and shift it north..




Not necessarily, especially with a strong high to the north.
You can clearly see the plume of shear out ahead of Danny streaming in from the Caribbean in this big-picture loop and the shear over the Northern Antilles blowing off the cloud tops from that little area of convection that sprung up around Dominica. It will take Danny about 12-24 hours to start getting into it so he has a relatively small window to keep his act together and try to expand/strengthen his outflow as a possible buffer until then:

Ooh sorry I have missed that an area with 111kt at flight level
Quoting 1585. ncstorm:

and IF Danny got up to a Cat 4 storm it happen will make its own steering path..




That's what I'm wondering too. Could he punch right through the obstacles?
Quoting 1554. HurriHistory:


Danny has been a very interesting system because of it's size and it's tenacity, however It looks like he is about to meet his maker and walk through the valley of death. I doubt very much he will be able to overcome the increasing shear and dry air which lay ahead. I hope Danny will be able to hold itself together as a strong tropical wave by the time it reaches the SE coast of Florida as we could use the rain in a big way, but I'm afraid by that time (late next week) there won't be anything left of him.
I personally believe you over estimate the shear ahead. What the shear map says and what the sat imagery looks like appears to me to be two different creatures. Never underestimate the tenacity of a small fighter.
speaking of the HWRF: Its currently running, here it is at 39 hours.


Quoting 1581. ncstorm:

a stronger storm will track north of the Islands..

a weaker storm will go west..

the NHC will have to adjust their track and shift it north..




This would be "True" but at the end of the 4 day runs the Bermuda High
builds back in and sends Danny more on a West to Northwest Movement.
It all depends on how strong Danny will be and how strong the High will be

Taco :o)
And remember Danny was suppose to be a open wave at this time according to some :)
Link
Orange and dry surrounding Danny more it appears. While the dry surrounds... Danny blooms? Tenacity.
Time: 16:20:30Z
Coordinates: 14.183N 48.283W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,704 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 983.1 mb (29.03 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 150° at 107 kts (From the SSE at 123.1 mph)
Air Temp: 7.2°C* (45.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 111 kts (127.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 kts* (70.2 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr* (0.16 in/hr*)

maybe a cat 3 hurricane
1601. MahFL
Quoting 1587. thomaskerr1027:

How soon do we start seeing some Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches for the Leeward Islands?


Saturday.
1602. Martuch
Quoting 1572. taco2me61:



I'm not so sure just yet. But if you look what George and or Fredrick did
you might want to be on "Standby" just saying

Taco :o)
Blog Update
Check out my analysis and thoughts on Danny.
1604. Gearsts
1605. ricderr
from myfoxhurricane.....

wind shear forecast at 36 hours......it shows shear decreasing...and while at some point danny boy will have to cross this higher shear....i would think it will weaken danny...but not crush it

Quoting 1590. Drakoen:

Looks like Danny may be intensifying as they are sampling.
just as they got there maybe even on approach
For Danny, the stronger and bigger it gets the more latent heat it will release into the upper atmosphere. This promotes anticyclonic turning which helps shield from shear.

HURRICANE DANNY maybe a cat 3 hurricane yes or no
I hope Danny will move south of 18N 63W lol
1610. Xandtar
From Dominica I am watching this storm with great interest. With the new HH info the suits have time to adjust Danny up to a Category 3, but they probably won't.

In retrospect perhaps Dr. Masters should have put the lead article back in the can for another week or so, Danny is the story of the day. But it is what it is.

Hoping for a little feeder band rain and a nice weak storm passage right over the rain-parched Virgin Islands etc., we're good here for rain at the junction of the windward/leeward islands.
Quoting 1607. VAbeachhurricanes:

For Danny, the stronger and bigger it gets the more latent heat it will release into the upper atmosphere. This promotes anticyclonic turning which helps shield from shear.
This is true learned that in Thermodynamics.
Quoting 1607. VAbeachhurricanes:

For Danny, the stronger and bigger it gets the more latent heat it will release into the upper atmosphere. This promotes anticyclonic turning which helps shield from shear.
Probably the reason why the models in their original runs didn't weaken it so substantially before getting to the islands due to a possible ULAC.
Quoting 1598. washingtonian115:

And remember Danny was suppose to be a open wave at this time according to some :)
Danny sure is "just another dud" ;^)
1614. Martuch
"Standbye" i had a very close relationship with George and Hugo
I live in Puerto Rico 😠⚡️⚡️⚡️☔️💨💨💧💧
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042015
A. 21/16:20:00Z
B. 14 deg 08 min N
048 deg 19 min W
H. EXTRAP 965 mb
I. 6 C / 3690 m
J. 21 C / 3321 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C12
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 WA04A DANNY OB 06
SLP EXTRAP FROM 12000 FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 111 KT 026 / 04 NM 16:20:40Z
Quoting 1610. Xandtar:

From Dominica I am watching this storm with great interest. With the new HH info the suits have time to adjust Danny up to a Category 3, but they probably won't.

In retrospect perhaps Dr. Masters should have put the lead article back in the can for another week or so, Danny is the story of the day. But it is what it is.

Hoping for a little feeder band rain and a nice weak storm passage right over the rain-parched Virgin Islands etc., we're good here for rain at the junction of the windward/leeward islands.
be an interesting update soon regarding danny
Gonna check back in the PM after the next NHC discussion. Will note that we have seen weak tropical storms ripped apart by shear or dry air in this region, and on approach to the Caribbean, the last several seasons but this is the first hurricane to make this crossing in some time. Surviving the shear gauntlet intact, but only being downgraded down to TS as a result all the way to Haiti, is exactly what the current NHC forecast calls for so I would not write Danny off at this time due to shear issues.

I think shear will not be as big of an issue as people think, there seems to be moisture associated with the higher shear and it is southerly which helps. I think the NHC forecast is a little low but believable.
The plane is making an approach into the center again. Hopefully they'll hit it head on. But even if they don't and sample similar areas as earlier, if they find lower pressures it could be indicative of strengthening.
1620. GetReal


Just when you think the cloud tops maybe warming, BANG, Danny puts on another burst!!!
Quoting 1598. washingtonian115:

And remember Danny was suppose to be a open wave at this time according to some :)


When I got to the satellite page....I was like, am I on the Pacific? lol
54 hrs.
1623. Gearsts
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
The Atlantic is now in an intraseasonal state that over powers El Nino, making conditions favorable for TC genesis
1624. BayFog
Quoting 1611. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is true learned that in Thermodynamics.

It would have to be a much bigger storm to fend off the shear ahead of it.
Quoting 1613. Tornado6042008X:

Danny sure is "just another dud" ;^)
The years that end with a "5" sure do make their own rules when it comes to the tropics.

1626. Gearsts
965mb
Quoting 1608. hurricanes2018:


HURRICANE DANNY maybe a cat 3 hurricane yes or no


I say 3, but what do I know....
We will probably get a special advisory after this pass, increasing Danny to a cat 3, with at least a pressure of 965mb.
1629. Drakoen
Eye Character: Open in the south

Shear possibly
Quoting 1621. Starhopper:



When I got satellite page....I was like, am I on the Pacific? lol
I had to rub my eyes a little bit in order to not be deceived.
Quoting 1629. Drakoen:

Eye Character: Open in the south

Shear possibly


More likely a replacement cycle, overall cloud pattern doesn't suggest much shear yet.
1632. ncstorm
Quoting 1597. taco2me61:



This would be "True" but at the end of the 4 day runs the Bermuda High
builds back in and sends Danny more on a West to Northwest Movement.
It all depends on how strong Danny will be and how strong the High will be

Taco :o)


I said and this is only my amateur opinion that it will track north of the islands and the NHC will have to adjust their track to the north in the next update because its a stronger storm therefore it will feel the influence of the trough..I dont see this going through PR as the current track has it but North of it..

what happens after day 4..good luck..

Quoting 1623. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
The Atlantic is now in an intraseasonal state that over powers El Nino, making conditions favorable for TC genesis
Climatology rules again.
1634. Drakoen
11mb lower than the 11 am advisory and flight level winds at 111kts.

Quoting 1629. Drakoen:

Eye Character: Open in the south

Shear possibly
Dry air.  You can see it in the radar images.  It's wide open.


Quoting 1629. Drakoen:

Eye Character: Open in the south

Shear possibly


Notice they left out C,D,E,F and G (windspeed fields). I wonder if they are going to embargo that data now?
On their way in for second pass.

Time: 17:00:00Z
Coordinates: 14.583N 48.417W
Acft. Static Air Press: 644.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,815 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.9 mb (29.68 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 98° at 45 kts (From the E at 51.8 mph)
Air Temp: 6.0°C* (42.8°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (0.39 in/hr)
1638. Drakoen
Quoting 1631. VAbeachhurricanes:



More likely a replacement cycle, overall cloud pattern doesn't suggest much shear yet.


I need to see more radar passes before concluding that. It could be an artifact of the instrumentation.
Quoting 1634. Drakoen:

11mb lower than the 11 am advisory and flight level winds at 111kts.
That's a lot of 1's ;)
1640. 900MB
Quoting 1631. VAbeachhurricanes:



More likely a replacement cycle, overall cloud pattern doesn't suggest much shear yet.


I'm with you, it is due for an EWRC.
1641. TXCWC
For what it's worth latest GEM taking Danny NORTH of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
1642. Drakoen
Quoting 1635. ILwthrfan:


Dry air.  You can see it in the radar images.  It's wide open.





Dry air inhibits the development of convection, but shear is probably tearing it down. The combo of both isn't good.
Quoting 1632. ncstorm:



I said and this is only my amateur opinion that it will track north of the islands and the NHC will have to adjust their track to the north in the next update because its a stronger storm therefore it will feel the influence of the trough..I dont see this going through PR as the current track has it but North of it..

what happens after day 4..good luck..



Agreed.
1644. BayFog
CPac Kilo is forecast to turn right into the Hawaiian chain as it's gaining strength over the unusually warm SSTs in the vicinity. Only possible impediment is a band of westerlies flying in, energized by the outflow of Atsani and Goni. Kilo has a decent upper level anticyclone, but whether it will be enough to survive the shear remains to be seen. Both Kilo and the depression to its west could also get entrained into the same westerlies that will be impinging on them, and perhaps, we might see a decent low latitude jet emerge, one possibly capable of reaching the West Coast.
Hi all, just checking in to see what Hurricane Danny is up to. Will be lurking, enjoying all your forecasts and comments!
Real time SRSO link

Link
hard to believe at one point this thing had no convection on the at all
Loop of recon radar imagery from the first pass of Danny. A bit of eye candy, but the radar should be considered on a frame-by-frame basis as recon is continuously moving (thus signal strength of certain areas will fluctuate moreso than with ground-based radars).

Looks like they just crossed the eye again.
Quoting 1588. MonsterTrough:

I don't think shear will kill him. I think the mountains will.
Not if he goes north of the mountains and he looks to be going more north now.
Does anyone care to comment on the discrepancy with the UAH satellite tropospheric measurements indicating July 2015 was not a record hot month?




Quoting 1638. Drakoen:



I need to see more radar passes before concluding that. It could be an artifact of the instrumentation.
The overall cloud pattern is 30 to 60 minutes behind the radar images.

He has already peaked and is now about to weaken.

That dry slot will leave him susceptible to dry air, which will weaken his core, in turn weakening his anticyclone, thus leaving him even more vulnerable to shear conditions.

Tomorrow morning will be interesting to see what is left of Danny.  With such a small size he could go POOF as quickly as he went BAM.
1654. IDTH
Eye closing again, either ERC or dry air entering from south of the storm
Quoting 1650. BahaHurican:

Looks like they just crossed the eye again.

Cue the Top Gun theme song...
Ok now that we have some idea of how Danny's insides are and how strong he is the question is now how much stronger he will get and where will he go now we know Danny changes up the game completely now so we need to try figure this one out

Just saying I still thing the Atlantic ridge will still rebuild and rebuild a bit faster and stronger too


Oh and since we are totally fixed on Danny just might want to tell you invest 97L has not convection over or even near the best track position and no low level swirl there was slight broad low level turning but nothing defined and I think NHC killed no more BEST track data running on it it still may be there we would have to wait for 18Z plots to come out if the 18Z on 97L doesn't then it's dead

Anyway I think NHC may drop % on it in TWO
1657. Drakoen
Quoting 1653. ILwthrfan:


The overall cloud pattern is 30 to 60 minutes behind the radar images.

He has already peaked and is now about to weaken.

That dry slot will leave him susceptible to dry air, which will weaken his core, in turn weakening his anticyclone, thus leaving him even more vulnerable to shear conditions.

Tomorrow morning will be interesting to see what is left of Danny.  With such a small size he could go POOF as quickly as he went BAM.



I'm aware of that.



hurricane danny at 1pm on august 21 2015! danny nice eye winds still 105 mph
66 hrs. Danny deepens again. Danny going for the long haul!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1661. sar2401
Quoting 1656. wunderkidcayman:

Ok now that we have some idea of how Danny's insides are and how strong he is the question is now how much stronger he will get and where will he go now we know Danny changes up the game completely now so we need to try figure this one out

Just saying I still thing the Atlantic ridge will still rebuild and rebuild a bit faster and stronger too


Oh and since we are totally fixed on Danny just might want to tell you invest 97L has not convection over or even near the best track position and no low level swirl there was slight broad low level turning but nothing defined and I think NHC killed no more BEST track data running on it it still may be there we would have to wait for 18Z plots to come out if the 18Z on 97L doesn't then it's dead

Anyway I think NHC may drop % on it in TWO
Please, for the love of everything holy, use some punctuation.

EDIT: Did it again...
Quoting 1621. Starhopper:



When I got to the satellite page....I was like, am I on the Pacific? lol

Link
New pass 117MPH sfc 969mbs

Sfc wind increase central pressure rises from 965 to 969
Shear beginning to affect Danny. Outflow boundaries visible to the west, and the convection on the southwest side has reduced as it is blown off by the shear. HH may have gotten there right after the peak..
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 16:55Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 04 in 2015
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 16:20:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°08'N 48°19'W (14.1333N 48.3167W)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 965mb (28.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,690m (12,106ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,321m (10,896ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 12,000 feet
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 111kts (~ 127.7mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the NNE (26°) from the flight level center at 16:20:40Z
i only find max sust. winds of 85mph at surface level
1667. Patrap


Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:10Z
Date: August 21, 2015
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Danny (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: First flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 16

17:10:00Z 13.933N 48.450W 696.2 mb

(~ 20.56 inHg) 3,161 meters
(~ 10,371 feet) 1004.6 mb
(~ 29.67 inHg) - From 246° at 32 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 36.8 mph) 9.6°C
(~ 49.3°F) 7.6°C
(~ 45.7°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 33.9 knots (~ 39.0 mph)
105.9%

At 17:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 757 statue miles (1,219 km) to the E (82°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

At 17:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 753 statue miles (1,211 km) to the E (86°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Quoting 1573. VAbeachhurricanes:

B-e-a-utiful radar images. Can see a probable ERC occurring.

16:17Z


16:22Z


Could you provide the link for these images please!
Quoting 1644. BayFog:

CPac Kilo is forecast to turn right into the Hawaiian chain as it's gaining strength over the unusually warm SSTs in the vicinity. Only possible impediment is a band of westerlies flying in, energized by the outflow of Atsani and Goni. Kilo has a decent upper level anticyclone, but whether it will be enough to survive the shear remains to be seen. Both Kilo and the depression to its west could also get entrained into the same westerlies that will be impinging on them, and perhaps, we might see a decent low latitude jet emerge, one possibly capable of reaching the West Coast.


Hey BayFog,
Do you know what time frame Kilo would make it to the West coast? Not saying it will but we have seen it before this year
Quoting 1635. ILwthrfan:


Dry air. You can see it in the radar images. It's wide open.





An eyewall doesn't become open always as a function of dry air, while it could be that, convective and warm core cyclone dynamics are more complicated than that. a lot goes into where and if convection develops, and where it dies.
General table
Link
Quoting 1548. Patrap:

we're gonna need a bigger server'

or just clean it lol
1673. GatorWX
EWRC?
1674. Dakster
Wow - So I just read Danny is a Major Hurricane... That was sorta unexpected. These small intense hurricanes seem to be able to find the right place in the atmosphere to survive sometimes...

Let's al admire it and hope it does as forecast and goes back to a TS before any landfall.
Quoting 1674. Dakster:

Wow - So I just read Danny is a Major Hurricane... That was sorta unexpected. These small intense hurricanes seem to be able to find the right place in the atmosphere to survive sometimes...

Let's al admire it and hope it does as forecast and goes back to a TS before any landfall.
HWRF had it right at the beginning, then downcast it.
1676. Dakster
Quoting 1675. unknowncomic:

HWRF had it right at the beginning, then downcast it.


TIme to put some more emphasis on what the HWRF says.