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Danny’s Leg Up: A Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW)

By: Bob Henson 11:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2015

Tropical Storm Danny might not be making the scene were it not for the help of a subtle but important atmospheric feature, called a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW), that’s contributed to a temporary break from hurricane-hostile El Niño conditions. Danny has changed little over the last few hours: as of 5:00 pm EDT Wednesday, peak sustained winds remained near 50 mph, and the latest National Hurricane Center outlook continues to bring Danny to hurricane status, though not until Friday. Tonight will be a good test of whether Danny can rebuild a solid convective core after its disruption from dry air and Saharan dust over the last 24 hours. For a more complete look at Danny and today’s other tropical activity, see our post from earlier this afternoon and the post from WU blogger Steve Gregory.

What’s a CCKW?
CCKWs are huge impulses, spanning thousands of miles, that move from west to east through the stratosphere, typically rolling along at about 30 to 40 mph. CCKWs are centered on the equator, with their effects progressively weaker as you move toward the subtropics. Like a giant chimney, each CCKW has a broad zone of rising air at its heart, tilted toward the west as you move up. The resulting circulation (see Figure 1) favors the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the CCKW, as low-level air converges. The resulting storms are then supported by upper-level divergence toward the center of the CCKW, plus low-level westerlies near the equator that can enhance cyclonic spin. An eastward-moving CCKW can intersect the train of westward-moving waves rolling through the Atlantic, giving one or more of them a boost that can help them consolidate into tropical cyclones.


Figure 1. Schematic cross section through a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). Image credit: Michael Ventrice.


Global weather prediction models such as the GFS and ECMWF can now latch onto CCKWs and preserve them as they make their way around the globe. CCKWs are nondispersive waves, meaning they tend to maintain their structure and can survive long enough to make several trips around the world over the course of several weeks. This gives them a noteworthy predictive value, but it takes some time and training to analyze CCKWs, which are too subtle to be seen with the naked eye on satellite images. One of the most useful tools is a Hovmöller diagram (see Figures 2 and 4 below), a time-versus-longitude plot often used to analyze areas where outgoing infrared radiation is consistently strong or weak. A CCKW will often foster and suppress enough clouds along its path to appear in a Hovmöller diagram, where its signal can be separated from the noise of day-to-day storminess. Sometimes a CCKW will overtake an active phase of the slower-moving Madden-Julian Oscillation, providing a twofold boost to showers and thunderstorms at that location before the CCKW moves on.

“It can be hard to see CCKWs for sure in these [diagrams], as these waves often destructively interfere from time to time with other equatorial waves and/or standing oscillations,” Ventrice told me. “Thus, you'll see a clear eastward propagation over some location, a break, then continuation of the signal over another location to the east at a later time.”


Figure 2. A Hovmöller diagram showing CCKW activity in July-August 2006 as traced by reductions in outgoing infrared radiation (encircled bands), averaged by longitude (bottom axis) over the main development region of the Atlantic (7.5°N to 12.5°N). Negative values of longitude are °W; positive values are °E. The CCKWs occur in the context of other, stronger features, so it can take careful analysis to find them. The green “D” near the center of the image indicates where and when Tropical Storm Debby became a named storm, supported by a CCKW passing from upper left to lower right through the “D.” Image credit: Michael Ventrice.


WSI scientist Michael Ventrice unraveled some of the links between CCKWs and hurricane formation several years ago, as part of his doctoral work at the University at Albany, State University of New York. He and colleagues at WSI now consult the CCKW regularly, and Ventrice has helped NHC develop code that allows the center to analyze CCKWs on a daily basis. “It seems to have really caught on among forecasters in the last three years,” Ventrice told me. For example, a forthcoming paper in Monthly Weather Review by Carl Schreck (North Carolina State University) surveys CCKWs around the globe and their role in tropical cyclogenesis.

Ventrice’s own research includes a set of three CCKW-related papers published in Monthly Weather Review in April 2012, July 2012, and June 2013. Ventrice’s dissertation is online, including an analysis of how a CCKW assisted in the formation of Tropical Storm Debby in 2006. There’s much more about CCKWs, including daily analyses, on Ventrice’s personal website. He also discussed CCKWs as part of a guest post on this blog last year.

How could a CCKW help give Danny a kick-start?
I was intrigued on Tuesday when a tweet from @MJVentrice credited a weak CCKW with assisting in the formation of the tropical depression that became Danny. According to Ventrice, this CCKW formed near the International Date Line around August 8, then amplified as it moved into the Atlantic basin. It’s now centered over the heart of the main development region, the swath of deep tropics in the north Atlantic that plays host to many of each year’s tropical cyclones. Over the last several days, this CCKW has likely enhanced low-level moisture and convection on its forward flank, in the eastern Atlantic, which would have helped nourish the easterly wave that became Danny as it came off the African coast. Only a minority of such waves make it to tropical-storm status; Ventrice believes that CCKWs are one of the key factors that can make or break such a system.


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Danny is now on the western edge of an eastward-moving CCKW, as indicated by this composite of Atlantic rain rates (shaded), departures from average wind at the 200-millibar height (vectors), and velocity potential anomalies at the 200-millibar height (contours). The velocity potential anomalies are related to upper-level divergence (blue contours) and convergence (red contours), with divergence favoring upward motion. For the latest version of this image, see Michael Ventrice’s website. Image credit: Michael Ventrice.


As Danny and the CCKW move in opposite directions, Danny is finding itself left behind. “The environment behind the CCKW can stay favorable for a couple of days, where you have enhanced low-level spinning, reduced vertical wind shear, and enhanced outflow,” Ventrice told me. (Carl Schreck’s new paper also finds that tropical cyclogenesis is favored for several days behind the crest of a CCKW.) However, Danny appears to be already feeling a lack of support, with the peak of the CCKW having long passed it by. “This may be the reason why we are seeing convection decouple from Danny this afternoon [Wednesday], as the low-level circulation associated with Danny is becoming exposed,” he said.

Fairly soon, Danny will encounter the more suppressed environment well behind the CCKW, together with the likelihood of higher wind shear and drier air favored by the ongoing El Niño regime. “I’ve seen a lot of cases where a mature tropical cyclone gets run over by the suppression behind a CCKW,” said Ventrice. “Can the hurricane create its own environment to protect itself from this?” One thing is for sure: the more latitude Danny gains, the less it will be influenced--for better or worse--by this CCKW. Meanwhile, it’s possible that the CCKW that gave Danny a boost will go on during the next week to favor development of another one or two easterly waves now over Africa, as suggested by some long-range model runs. After that, said Ventrice, “it doesn’t look like there’ll be much in the way of CCKW activity over the next two weeks.”

On Thursday morning, we’ll have a complete update on Danny, as well as Invest 93C in the Central Pacific and Typhoon Goni and Super Typhoon Atsani in the Northwest Pacific. Later on Thursday, watch for our summary of July’s global climate. In the meantime, here's a fascinating infrared loop of Atsani's core, featuring 2-km-resolution imagery from the Himiwari-8 satellite, courtesy of the University of Wisconsin/CIMSS. Jeff Masters is offline most of this week but will be fully back on board next week.

Bob Henson



Figure 4. A Hovmöller plot for May-September 2015 from the Cooperative Institute of Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC) showing variations in 200-mb zonal (west-to-east) wind speed by longitude over time. After August 17, the plot draws on long-range predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System model. Tropical cyclones over the Atlantic and Pacific are shown as lettered hurricane symbols. CCKWs are encircled in blue. A weak CCKW at lower right may have played a role in the development of Tropical Depression 11 (“E”) in the Northeast Pacific as well as Danny (“F”) in the Atlantic. Regularly updated plots are available from the Cooperative Institute of Climate and Satellites–North Carolina. Image credit:

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 487. StormTrackerScott:



You would be wrong. Danny has had a nice core albeit small all along. I saw some tweets by Eric Blake showing an eye like structure developing last night on microwave imagery. That just not a pocket of dry air your looking @ its a complete eye like structure Nea.


You would be wrong. Its a TS, not a 75mph hurricane.
It is cold across the Mid West this morning Record lows falling all over the place this morning!

503. IDTH
Danny literally only needed that much convection to become a hurricane (it's either close or it is one), that's how organized the system was at the surface, imagine if it still had all that convection from a few days ago, probably would have been much bigger, it's not too far away though from a less than favorable environment, these next 12 hours are crucial to this storms survival but it's more than likely to weaken a decent or significant amount these next couple of days.

P.S anyone else post comments but sometimes but they don't have a flag, an eye, or a + sometimes when you view it, I guess maybe that means my comment wasn't processed properly or something.



Danny looks like a minimal hurricane IMO. You can't get much better defined and not be a Cat 1.
Quoting 501. CapeCoralWx:



You would be wrong. Its a TS, not a 75mph hurricane.


I can assure you if we had a HH plane out there they would find 70 knt around that eye as its very well developed this morning. NHC is being very conservative IMO.
Quoting 504. GetReal:




Danny looks like a minimal hurricane IMO.


Those first intensity forecast by the NHC might pan out.
Quoting 427. Patrap:

Am off to take the wife to East Jefferson Hospital as Her shoulder surgery is for 8:30 am here.

Keep the Fort down and running.


my thoughts and love will be with u guys. wishing her a speedy recovery.
And the latest shear per CIMMS; it has developed an anti-cyclone overhead but headed towards moderate shear out ahead; tough to forecast shear more than 5 days out so we have to wait to see how that pans out in the 2-3 day time frame:

Quoting 508. weathermanwannabe:

And the latest shear per CIMMS; it has developed an anti-cyclone overhead but headed towards moderate shear out ahead; tough to forecast shear more than 5 days out so we have to wait to see how that pans out in the 2-3 day time frame:




There was decent shear where Danny is now a couple of days ago but its since retreated to the west but 40knt shear by the islands isn't nothing to mess around with.
510. 900MB
Just wondering....what's the smallest hurricane on record? Anyone?
Quoting 506. StormTrackerScott:



Those first intensity forecast by the NHC might pan out.

I agree that he definitely has the look of a small compact hurricane. Now lets see if he sustains it.
The model runs later today should be interesting. A challenging storm to watch develop
He really took advantage of the anti-cyclone over the past several hours: note the outflow channel that developed in the NW quad:




well good morning I see danny is a micro storm this am with a hurricane look too boot
Quoting 510. 900MB:

Just wondering....what's the smallest hurricane on record? Anyone?


There was one back in October 2005 in the BOC. Can't remember the name though maybe GT or TA13 can chime in on that one.
516. FOREX
Quoting 505. StormTrackerScott:



I can assure you if we had a HH plane out there they would find 70 knt around that eye as its very well developed this morning. NHC is being very conservative IMO.


Always someone attacking you Scott. You have tough skin. I sure don't. I take everything so personally, especially since my Wife passed a few months ago. I'm anxious to see how Danny does over the next 10 days just like you are.
Danny may be small, but so was Charley. Wasn't Charley like only 100 miles in diameter, with an eye of about 5-7 miles at landfall? Small storm, but packed a mighty big punch.

"Judge me by my size, do you?" - Jedi Master Yoda
Quoting 494. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS, DANNY


Up to 60 kts then! Almost a hurricane. Should be officially a hurricane soon.
Quoting 510. 900MB:

Just wondering....what's the smallest hurricane on record? Anyone?
think marco in the boc was


starting to look like a eye to me!!
I QUIT THIS SITE BYE
Quoting 513. weathermanwannabe:

He really took advantage of the anti-cyclone over the past several hours: note the outflow channel that developed in the NW quad:







Danny looks really good. To bad we don't have recon out there as I am 100 percent sure we would be seeing winds higher than the 60mph the NHC has for it now.
The HWRF saw this originally before of course showing a open wave on some of the latest runs.A small compact hurricane coming for the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 477. StormTrackerScott:



That's a hurricane. You just don't see that clear of an eye in a Tropical Storm.


2014's Arthur while still a TS east of St. Augustine.

525. 900MB
Quoting 519. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

think marco in the boc was


That was a tropical storm, TS winds only 11.5 miles wide. But, smallest hurricane???
Quoting 521. Tazmanian:

I QUIT THIS SITE BYE
what ever it is it cannot be that bad just take a break
Quoting 516. FOREX:



Always someone attacking you Scott. You have tough skin. I sure don't. I take everything so personally, especially since my Wife passed a few months ago. I'm anxious to see how Danny does over the next 10 days just like you are.


You just have to remember its a blog and its not like you have to see these people. Just do what you do and keep it moving. Sorry about your wife.
Quoting 519. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

think marco in the boc was


Marco was no bigger than a normal midwest supercell thunderstorm.
529. MahFL
Quoting 505. StormTrackerScott:



NHC is being very conservative IMO.


How are they being conservative ?
They don't normally update storms at 8 am, it's just an outlook.
Quoting 521. Tazmanian:

I QUIT THIS SITE BYE
goodbye
Quoting 512. southbeachdude:

The model runs later today should be interesting. A challenging storm to watch develop

FWIW, even initialized as a 60kt storm, the 12z SHIPS did not show any significant change on its forecast for Danny, a bit stronger early on of course, but shear and dry air will hit it in a few days. However, I may have to eat another round of crow for doubting the initial NHC forecast (although they've backed it down themselves). Tiny storms like this, when they start to really spin, can put on quite a show very quickly.



at the end of this loop you see a eye from tropical storm danny
Quoting 526. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what ever it is it cannot be that bad just take a break



ITS BAD ALL RIGHT THEY GOT RID OF FACBOOK LONG IN ONE OF THE MOST UES FUL TOOLS ON HERE IS NOW GONE
Quoting 455. 69Viking:

Danny won't be in the Eastern Caribbean for 5 or 6 days so hard to say what shear will be like then. I just hope he holds together enough to give some of the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico some much needed rain.


I was watching the weather channel on TV not too long ago

TWC showed the shear map plus the forecast and spaghetti models and it shows shear easing up as Danny enters the E Caribbean

So hmm you never know
Quoting 521. Tazmanian:

I QUIT THIS SITE BYE


An El Nino year (if you like tracking Atlantic hurricanes) is a good choice.................You can always come back in a Neutral or La Nina year.
536. MahFL
The eye got smaller :

We'll see how long this intensification spurt lasts, but atm, it's intensifying rather quickly. Very small system, might I add.

97L
539. 900MB
I'm claiming credit for this new term right now. Danny is a....

DWARF HURRICANE!
Quoting 522. StormTrackerScott:


Danny looks really good. To bad we don't have recon out there as I am 100 percent sure we would be seeing winds higher than the 60mph the NHC has for it now.


Hi Scott-
A stronger Danny may mean it takes a more northerly track.

You agree?
541. ackee
I see a eye clearly this is a hurricane now will the nhc say so let see
Getting better and forming seems to forming eye.
Pretty sad that this is what goes for a hurricane in the MDR now (or approaching hurricane status).

Look at how small Danny is.

An eye was just about the last thing I expected this morning. I am still not sure if this structure is going to be permanent, small storms are really finicky. Assuming it stays I think we can assume Danny will survive past the East Caribbean. Its probably worth noting that storms this small usually undergo ERCs and get larger. Also even if the anticyclone doesn't hold, the shear Danny is entering will be southerly shear which is less detrimental to TCs. Just my two cents
545. IDTH
The one thing about small systems is they can spin up quickly and can really get going, but can't smaller storms like this just as easily fall apart in hostile conditions?
I just woke up and I took a quick look at the satellite imagery, and out of nowhere an eye popped out LOL. Danny's just full of surprises. Don't expect cloud tops to be excessively cold due to the fact that Danny is embedded in a very stable region. Amazing what a small tropical cyclone it has become, just as forecasted by the global models.
Quoting 543. CybrTeddy:

Pretty sad that this is what goes for a hurricane in the MDR now (or approaching hurricane status).

Look at how small Danny is.


Look the positive. It will get bigger ok buddy. :)
You can see it clearly on here.
Quoting 543. CybrTeddy:

Pretty sad that this is what goes for a hurricane in the MDR now (or approaching hurricane status).

Look at how small Danny is.




After looking at what we have had to deal with the past few years, you have to take what you can get!!!
550. IDTH
Quoting 539. 900MB:

I'm claiming credit for this new term right now. Danny is a....

DWARF HURRICANE!

What about Hobbit Hurricane?
Hmm new data shows Danny 60kts and 992mb that +28kts and -8mb

Quoting 548. Climate175:
You can see it clearly on here.


Danny will probably traverse at the uppermost limit of the cone and not go West.
553. MahFL
Quoting 543. CybrTeddy:

Pretty sad that this is what goes for a hurricane in the MDR now


How pray is it sad ? Hurricanes come in all sizes, not every storm is as big as Katrina was.
Quoting 545. IDTH:

The one thing about small systems is they can spin up quickly and can really get going, but can't smaller storms like this just as easily fall apart in hostile conditions?


You are right about that.
555. MahFL
Quoting 551. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm new data shows Danny 60kts and 992mb that +28kts and -8mb




Which data ?
Quoting 547. HurricaneAndre:
Look the positive. It will get bigger ok buddy. :)


If Danny can clear a path just due north of Puerto Rico it may become a storm to reckon with.

I bet the models change at 11 to show a more northerly bias.
Good Morning...

Danny has been fortunate enough to be riding along the outer edge of 81 to 82 degrees waters but these waters are cooling off some (around 80deg F) towards ~45W until ~55W, so I would expect a small strengthening if any for the next 24hr.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON ATSANI (1516)
21:00 PM JST August 20 2015
=========================
750 KM Southeast Of Chichi-jima (Ogasawara Islands)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Atsani (930 hPa) located at 22.6N 147.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 24.9N 145.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) southeast of Chichi-jima
48 HRS: 27.3N 144.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) east of Chichi-jima
72 HRS: 29.8N 144.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON GONI (1515)
21:00 PM JST August 20 2015
=========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Goni (935 hPa) located at 19.0N 124.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 19.9N 122.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 21.8N 123.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.5N 124.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sakishima islands waters (Okinawa Prefecture)
Quoting 510. 900MB:

Just wondering....what's the smallest hurricane on record? Anyone?


To exceed 65 knots? Cyclone Tracy.

Smallest tropical cyclone ever? TS Marco in 2008.
Stronger storm will get pulled even further poleward increasing the threat to the NE Caribbean.
561. IDTH
I have always had this question but I have never asked it, how come in the WP the storms have much higher cloud tops, is it because there is lower pressures in the WP than say the EP and Atlantic?
Quoting 549. GetReal:



After looking at what we have had to deal with the past few years, you have to take what you can get!!!


I suppose! But what a far cry from what the Atlantic MDR was able to produce five years ago.


Quoting 521. Tazmanian:

I QUIT THIS SITE BYE
Bye Taz, have a good future life away from here.
Quoting 537. GatorWX:

We'll see how long this intensification spurt lasts, but atm, it's intensifying rather quickly. Very small system, might I add.




SO CUTE!
Will finally note that the mass of convection in the ITCZ behind Danny yesterday cleared out, giving him some breathing room, so it is up to him at this point. He is no longer embedded in the ITCZ and lifting out. Not much moisture support so he will have to self-generate more mass and moisture based upon ongoing convection. The little guy looks like a Contender:

567. FOREX
Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel · 2m2 minutes ago
12z guidance initializing #danny at 60kts (perhaps underdone?) still bearish longer term.

With Danny proving to be such a fighter, you have to wonder what he would have been capable of if conditions were more favorable. I'm thinking really, really scary.
It is a cute one, isn't it? Bless its little eye..
570. 900MB
Quoting 550. IDTH:


What about Hobbit Hurricane?


LOL, I guess I have competition!
Satellite presentation supports a 70-75kt hurricane.

My new forecast for Danny - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
well since i can no longer used my facbook long in gust its time too really start over i sould now be no has SnowBoarders but you guys can still call me TAZ
Quoting 537. GatorWX:





It's tiny and the CDO isn't very impressive, but if that's not a hurricane then I'm a pink unicorn. Also check out that jump to the NW. The result of rapid intensification, possibly?
Refueling complete...turn and burn
Quoting 560. Bucsboltsfan:

Stronger storm will get pulled even further poleward increasing the threat to the NE Caribbean.


He might be too small of a storm to be pulled just yet.
The battle between the GFS and the ECMWF

580. MahFL
Quoting 574. GeoffreyWPB:






Erm, Cat 3 ?
581. SLU
Quoting 562. CybrTeddy:



I suppose! But what a far cry from what the Atlantic MDR was able to produce five years ago.





.. and will be producing next year.
Hmm 97L is moving a lot quicker than I thought 14.3 knots (16.5 mph | 26.5 km/h)
Quoting 573. SnowBoarders:

well since i can no longer used my facbook long in gust its time too really start over i sould now be no has SnowBoarders but you guys can still call me TAZ


Hmm, never knew that was a thing. But most sites do allow you to long on thru fb google + etcetera
Quoting 563. NativeSun:

Bye Taz, have a good future life away from here.


He'll be back.
GFS ensemble

Quoting 571. MiamiHurricanes09:


northwest of the tropical storm clouds fanning out mean this go right to hurricane by 5pm
Quoting 583. Grothar:




You could get a ban for posting that graphic:)
Quoting 531. MAweatherboy1:


FWIW, even initialized as a 60kt storm, the 12z SHIPS did not show any significant change on its forecast for Danny, a bit stronger early on of course, but shear and dry air will hit it in a few days. However, I may have to eat another round of crow for doubting the initial NHC forecast (although they've backed it down themselves). Tiny storms like this, when they start to really spin, can put on quite a show very quickly.

Charley in 04 was also a tightly wound system and did some RI right before hitting Florida. Very hard to forecast. I also noticed the 12z model run has shifted a little further north perhaps 97L as a few noted might keep Danny from hostile conditions in the Carribbean.
Ain't he a doll :).Reminds me of Kirk 2012
Quoting 575. Huracan94:It's tiny and the CDO isn't very impressive, but if that's not a hurricane then I'm a pink unicorn. Also check out that jump to the NW. The result of rapid intensification, possibly?

Why is the NHC playing games? They should have issued an intermediate update at 8 a.m. upgrading Danny to an 80-mph hurricane. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see Danny is a hurricane. Interestingly, the NHC at 11 a.m. is going to say it intensified rapidly -- explosive deepening between 5 a.m. and 11 a.m., but they will be wrong. Danny began strengthening since last evening. At 11 p.m. last night, it may have been a 60-mph storm. At 5 a.m. this morning, it definitely was a hurricane or a strong tropical storm. Let's see what they say at 11 a.m. Lives may be at stake in the Caribbean, so they need to be on top of their game. Storm Hunter.
Quoting 586. Grothar:
GFS ensemble



That's my thinking about where Danny could possibly go.
I spy with my little eye....heck let's be honest, I had to use a magnifying glass to see it. If tiny hurricane develops a tiny eye, is it still considered a pinhole eye?

Not surprised this is all the convection Danny has been able to muster, there is so little instability out there right now it's ridiculous.
Quoting 563. NativeSun:

Bye Taz, have a good future life away from here.



am back this going too ueasd this has my name long in name for some odd resson my snowstorm36@live.com email this will not send me my pass word reset link i think it tide in too my facebook long in wish now they got ride of but not matter i will this uesd this has my user name but you guy can still call me taz
596. 900MB
Quoting 590. GatorWX:




What an odd bird Danny is!
cv season is fun. good luck everyone


watching tropical storm danny its a littie storm in size now i see a eye this tropical storm be hurricane very fast and the winds go up fast to!
Quoting 575. Huracan94:



It's tiny and the CDO isn't very impressive, but if that's not a hurricane then I'm a pink unicorn. Also check out that jump to the NW. The result of rapid intensification, possibly?


Seen them bounce around lots when they're building an eyewall. I agree though, if it walks and talks like a duck..... Hell, they called Vince a hurricane in '05 based on that "theory". CDO is still in the making and it's likely the ir temps don't completely illustrate the actual intensity due it's size and the resolution of the satellite. Microwave shows a budding eyewall around 2/3 complete.
I have to reclassify Danny, sorry.

I am changing it from "Blobus Giganticus" to Blobus Minimus.

Quoting 601. Grothar:
I have to reclassify Danny, sorry.

I am changing it from "Blobus Giganticus" to Blobus Minimus.



It seems Danny got the Napoleonic complex.
Quoting 601. Grothar:

I have to reclassify Danny, sorry.

I am changing it from "Blobus Giganticus" to Blobus Minimus.




Danny's a hobbit.
Any thoughts on 97L's influence on Danny ? Or is too far away?
Quoting 595. SnowBoarders:




am back this going too ueasd this has my name long in name for some odd resson my snowstorm36@live.com email this will not send me my pass word reset link i think it tide in too my facebook long in wish now they got ride of but not matter i will this uesd this has my user name but you guy can still call me taz


Darn I thought we were going to finally get rid of you for good lol
Maybe we can all pool our money...

"Weather Channel Hires Morgan Stanley, PJT to Seek Sale."

Link



look at tropical storm danny now looking better by the hours
Quoting 601. Grothar:

I have to reclassify Danny, sorry.

I am changing it from "Blobus Giganticus" to Blobus Minimus.




I'm sure Danny will expand again in size I can already see the bands on the outer edge start to thicken and convection starting increase on those bands
Quoting 607. wunderkidcayman:



Darn I thought we were going to finally get rid of you for good lol


lol nic try am back this going too have too uead this has a id for now on


well i made a blog if you all want too talk about it head over there this is not the place for it has has it is off topic


moveing on too weather
Quoting 594. pipelines:

I spy with my little eye....heck let's be honest, I had to use a magnifying glass to see it. If tiny hurricane develops a tiny eye, is it still considered a pinhole eye?

Not surprised this is all the convection Danny has been able to muster, there is so little instability out there right now it's ridiculous.


I think it is wrt the storm's size
This will be a hurricane at 11 in my opinion. Probably with 80mph winds.
Danny may just avoid the Caribbean. We'll see.
Quoting 606. hurricanehanna:

Any thoughts on 97L's influence on Danny ? Or is too far away?


I say 97L will move out quicker than expected and the Atlantic ridge will rebuild back in keeping Danny on a more W track IMO but then again it's still a bit far out in time to be certain
Good Morning Everyone,

Danny looks like a Hurricane already....
Wow he is pulling it al together....

Taco :o)
Quoting 614. HurricaneAndre:

This will be a hurricane at 11 in my opinion. Probably with 80mph winds.


Hmm nah 70MPH TS maybe Cat 1 this evening if Danny becomes better

Quoting 615. rmbjoe1954:

Danny may just avoid the Caribbean. We'll see.


Nah I say it will come rolling through the the E Caribbean I say S of Martinique

We will see
Danny was whistling to the tune "Tomorrow WIll Be Kinder," or maybe Tomorrow Never Knows yesterday.
i love this blog........yesterday danny was dying...and today danny is a hurricane.....folks..you can't beat this as entertainment value...i truly enjoy it...

now for those that are new......may i suggest...take heed of the information dispensed by the featured mets.....they make it clear and concise to understand what is going on and the dynamics at play.....

as for the bloggers...at times you will learn very useful information...especially as to what other sites have good information...and how to access models and data sets.....now as to storms dying....going gargantualn...or that they are headed as a cat 5 towards tampa....well...we're bloggers...and we each bring our wishcasting...westcasting...downcasting...and even humor into these blogs....take us with a grain of salt....
Quoting 621. ricderr:

i love this blog........yesterday danny was dying...and today danny is a hurricane.....folks..you can't beat this as entertainment value...i truly enjoy it...

now for those that are new......may i suggest...take heed of the information dispensed by the featured mets.....they make it clear and concise to understand what is going on and the dynamics at play.....

as for the bloggers...at times you will learn very useful information...especially as to what other sites have good information...and how to access models and data sets.....now as to storms dying....going gargantualn...or that they are headed as a cat 5 towards tampa....well...we're bloggers...and we each bring our wishcasting...westcasting...downcasting...and even humor into these blogs....take us with a grain of salt....



"Captain Hindsight is our protector and guardian."

- Randy Marsh
Well I'm on my mobile. Otherwise I'd say more. But Danny is realy lookin better and the Atlantic overall is gettin active.
Despite Danny's rapid intensification in the short term, that still doesn't change the situation much in light of how miniature the cyclone has become. It needs to grow to maximize its chances for survival once shear increases above 15kt and Danny enters an even drier atmosphere. The global models that forecast dissipation are only likely doing so because they cannot resolve the small nature of the storm.
It appears after a quick jog WNW Danny is now moving W via satellite

The WNW jog likely due to intensity spurt

Anyway let's see if this continues

Eithway danny is probably the best looking storm this season so far despite its small size
statistically the butter fly island is a good bet
Most of these models are showing weakening I think they are just not picking up on him because of his size. Next model runs will be interesting to see.
More rain and convection over SE TX than Danny combined

What a increase in the past 8hrs. I saw 200 miles west of Danny last night on sat imagry that T-Storms fired up... so I did assume he would be better organized this morning and say have pressure of around 995-997 and winds near 60mph...but I didn't expect this. Danny looks like a solid hurricane..infact, he looks like he could be as strong as a Cat 2. My guess is that the pressure could be as low as 982 or lower with a small compact system and eye now. These compact and small systems can really get going. Usually it does take the winds 3-12hrs to catch up to the pressure drop depending on how fast the pressure drops.

I'm really curious on what the NHC will say and put as the winds and pressure. This will be a good example of us not having Recon in to determine the actual pressure and wind speed. Sat helps but since this is so rapid, the scan might of been in the earlier stages and not give us the "Current" pressure. Now comes the educated guess of what it is "Now" by also looking at current sat. Closest Bouy won't give a exact pressure cause of the small compact system.
2015AUG20 131500 (9:15AM EST)
3.6
996.7mb
57.0
dvorak t-numbers: 3.2 3.2 3.1
NO LIMIT ON
rapid intensification OFF -40.56 -48.80 UNIFRM N/A N/A
fix: 12.39lat 44.28lon FCST GOES13 38.2




danny leaving the itcz
Quoting 606. hurricanehanna:

Any thoughts on 97L's influence on Danny ? Or is too far away?


GT Caleb made the comment earlier that Danny might enter the weakness created by 97L but there is a lot of distance between them at the moment. Thus, the issue is how fast the weakness will fill back in as ridging comes back in. We will have to wait to see how the models handle the scenario and how NHC adjusts the track for the longer-term. Still about 5 days out from a clear picture so NHC is probably going to stick hard with the 3-day track and note that the longer term issues are uncertain due to timing issues and whether the ridge will build back in as Danny starts the approach to the Northern Antilles/PR region. To early to know at this point as the models flip back and forth over the next several days until we start getting some upper air samples from recon as to ridging patterns to feed into the models early next week.
Quoting 624. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Despite Danny's rapid intensification in the short term, that still doesn't change the situation much in light of how miniature the cyclone has become. It needs to grow to maximize its chances for survival once shear increases above 15kt and Danny enters an even drier atmosphere. The global models that forecast dissipation are only likely doing so because they cannot resolve the small nature of the storm.


Can't disagree there...
Quoting 619. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm nah 70MPH TS maybe Cat 1 this evening if Danny becomes better



Nah I say it will come rolling through the the E Caribbean I say S of Martinique

We will see



I hope so because we need rainfall due to the severe drought that affects us , I live in the Dominican Republic.
Quoting 634. CaribWind:




I hope so because we need rainfall due to the severe drought that affects us , I live in the Dominican Republic.
I used to live in La Romana and have a lot of family still there... They are saying this is the worst drought since the 70s... The cacti will be ok tho 🌵
Quoting 629. scottsvb:

What a increase in the past 8hrs. I saw 200 miles west of Danny last night on sat imagry that T-Storms fired up... so I did assume he would be better organized this morning and say have pressure of around 995-997 and winds near 60mph...but I didn't expect this. Danny looks like a solid hurricane..infact, he looks like he could be as strong as a Cat 2. My guess is that the pressure could be as low as 982 or lower with a small compact system and eye now. These compact and small systems can really get going. Usually it does take the winds 3-12hrs to catch up to the pressure drop depending on how fast the pressure drops.

I'm really curious on what the NHC will say and put as the winds and pressure. This will be a good example of us not having Recon in to determine the actual pressure and wind speed. Sat helps but since this is so rapid, the scan might of been in the earlier stages and not give us the "Current" pressure. Now comes the educated guess of what it is "Now" by also looking at current sat. Closest Bouy won't give a exact pressure cause of the small compact system.


As always looking forward to NHC official intensity. I would expect a 65mph to 70mph by next advisory.
Quoting 625. wunderkidcayman:

It appears after a quick jog WNW Danny is now moving W via satellite

The WNW jog likely due to intensity spurt

Anyway let's see if this continues

Eithway danny is probably the best looking storm this season so far despite its small size


He's moving more WNW or soon will...but will turn more west by Saturday-Monday
Work in Alvin and it is coming down pretty good here. Live in Pearland and it looks like rain is sitting over part of it and flooding again. Yesterday had 3 plus inches in some parts of Pearland. Bring it on! We need it badly. :D

Quoting 628. RitaEvac:

More rain and convection over SE TX than Danny combined


Quoting 636. WxLogic:



As always looking forward to NHC official intensity. I would expect a 65mph to 70mph by next advisory.


I'm expecting them to go with 75mph Hurricane Danny....but wouldn't shock me if it was 80+. He looks like a solid hurricane. I pressure reading was reported at 992mb but that was a few hours ago. I'm guessing it's around 985mb or lower. NHC does their report 1hr before the outlets recieve it..
Nice blog, Dr. Hansen, thank you.

In the meantime, we are experiencing some Heavy Weather, with over 4" rainfall since this time yesterday.
Some pretty noisy Boooomers last night. Seemed to be cloud to cloud directly overhead. Shook this old house pretty good !

Danny looks sweet ! If we have to have few storms, then it's better we have interesting ones, right ?
Danny is one of them, in my view.
Here is the ridging pattern, and dissipation of Danny around the 150hr mark, per the 06Z GFS run................This may change depending on what happens over the next several days:

[JavaScript Image Player]


tropical storm danny maybe a hurricane soon!! starting to see a eye!! i bet the winds will go up big time at 11am
Quoting 638. BrazoriaMan:

Work in Alvin and it is coming down pretty good here. Live in Pearland and it looks like rain is sitting over part of it and flooding again. Yesterday had 3 plus inches in some parts of Pearland. Bring it on! We need it badly. :D




I got 3.19" yesterday 1.2 mile(s) SW of NWS site
Quoting 639. scottsvb:



I'm expecting them to go with 75mph Hurricane Danny....but wouldn't shock me if it was 80 . He looks like a solid hurricane. I pressure reading was reported at 992mb but that was a few hours ago. I'm guessing it's around 985mb or lower. NHC does their report 1hr before the outlets recieve it..


Interesting enough I ran an AODT on Danny and got 982MB with 83mph (you estimates might not be too far off)... so I wouldn't disagree with you if NHC comes out with a much higher intensity than what we're expecting.
Quoting 624. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Despite Danny's rapid intensification in the short term, that still doesn't change the situation much in light of how miniature the cyclone has become. It needs to grow to maximize its chances for survival once shear increases above 15kt and Danny enters an even drier atmosphere. The global models that forecast dissipation are only likely doing so because they cannot resolve the small nature of the storm.


or they could just be wrong too..just as they were wrong about Danny intensification now..this storm is doing what it wants when it wants..pretty amazing I think..
Miss Piggy on her way to Barbados Google Earth Recon.


First Gonzo flight:

TDR/SAL mission Tropical Storm Danny


647. ackee
I would be shock if Danny is now a hurricane at 11am
90mph Cane would be reasonable since it has an eye and so compact
Quoting 637. scottsvb:



He's moving more WNW or soon will...but will turn more west by Saturday-Monday


Hmm maybe ... I say it will turn more West earlier late Friday/late Saturday timeframe

Quoting 641. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the ridging pattern, and dissipation of Danny at the 150hr mark, per the 06Z GFS run................This may change depending on what happens over the next several days:

[JavaScript Image Player]


I think there will be a stronger ridge and it will move in faster

But we will see
Quoting 595. SnowBoarders:




am back this going too ueasd this has my name long in name for some odd resson my snowstorm36@live.com email this will not send me my pass word reset link i think it tide in too my facebook long in wish now they got ride of but not matter i will this uesd this has my user name but you guy can still call me taz


But how will we know if it's really you?
Danny is the real MVP.Taking on those bad conditions in the Atlantic like a champ! I'm not even mad at cha'ya Danny boy (please don't hammer the islands though)
Happy for you! Crazy how much rain we got in the spring then summer the ground turned into the desert lol. Ground cracked at my house, started pulling away from the slab, grass died. I finally started watering but now God has supplied. Thankful for that!

Quoting 643. RitaEvac:



I got 3.19" yesterday 1.2 mile(s) SW of NWS site
Quoting 650. Grothar:



But how will we know if it's really you?

There will be hints, hidden deep within his scribing......
I guess if they go with AMSU they could justify a hurricane:

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM DANNY
Thursday 20aug15 Time: 0804 UTC
Latitude: 12.93 Longitude: -46.05
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 28 [130]
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
| Estimated MSLP: 991 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 63 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 7mb +/- 9 kts )
Danny continues to strengthen likely up to 80 mph now. I am seeing pressure drops of 8 to 10 mb so far this morning Roughly 990 to 992 mb so far.

Quoting 651. washingtonian115:

Danny is the real MVP.Taking on those bad conditions in the Atlantic like a champ! I'm even even mad at cha'ya Danny boy (please don't hammer the islands though)
Danny going 0-100 real quick.
we have a new update on tropical storm danny soon
Wondering if anybody has stats on the smallest tropical storms/hurricanes and how they compare to Danny . Danny seems to be one of the smallest storms I have ever seen, kind cute even ;-).
What up taz, pottery, Grothar.....
Quoting 654. nrtiwlnvragn:

I guess if they go with AMSU they could justify a hurricane:

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM DANNY
Thursday 20aug15 Time: 0804 UTC
Latitude: 12.93 Longitude: -46.05
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 28 [130]
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
| Estimated MSLP: 991 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 63 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 7mb +/- 9 kts )


There's no need to cling to automated satellite estimates that are known to struggle with small cyclones. A system with a well-organized central dense overcast and distinct eye deserves at the very least 65kt, if not 70kt or 75kt.
Linkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2QtBYR7NJs
Quoting 635. FLWeatherFreak91:

I used to live in La Romana and have a lot of family still there... They are saying this is the worst drought since the 70s... The cacti will be ok tho 🌵

La Romana is wonderful, don't remember a drought like this, in the north, animals are dying for the lack of water , and farmers are losing their crops.

I hope it rains throughout the Caribbean......
Updated my blog entry. Added 97L which is new. It's located Southeast of North Carolina. It may become a tropical storm tomorrow or over the weekend. Another low may form East of Florida or in the Bahamas early next week, hard to say if it will make a Tropical Depression at this point. There is also the wave behind Danny, this is looking slower than before. Not as north or as fast. May become the strongest of all of them. It's looking harder to say which way of the islands Danny will go because of these other lows. He consolidated and strengthened overnight.

Here is the first model runs on 97L, sort of spaghetti like..
Quoting 646. nrtiwlnvragn:

Miss Piggy on her way to Barbados Google Earth Recon.


First Gonzo flight:

TDR/SAL mission Tropical Storm Danny





Can't wait

Quoting 648. RitaEvac:

90mph Cane would be reasonable since it has an eye and so compact


Nah eye size is relative to storms actual size

So small storm with small eye doesn't mean strong system
Same big storm with big eye weak storm lol
So small storm with micro eye strong storm
Big storm with small or micro eye very strong storm

Anyway can wait for RECON the flight will determine how strong

I just wish RECON could have flown today right where storm is now

Quoting 647. ackee:

I would be shock if Danny is now a hurricane at 11am


Really you would

Although for 11am advisory I'd say strong TS
Didn't the models a few days ago say that Danny would be a Hurricane by today????
Also if I remember right some had him as a Cat 2 by this evening....

Taco :o)
The Islanders were asking for rain but may get more than what they ask for..

Be prepare..because there are other waves behind Danny that might be traveling in the same direction..


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2015 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 12:23:04 N Lon : 44:33:58 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.6mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -25.0C Cloud Region Temp : -47.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.9 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 661. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's no need to cling to automated satellite estimates that are known to struggle with small cyclones. A system with a well-organized central dense overcast and distinct eye deserves at the very least 65kt, if not 70kt or 75kt.


To bad we don't have recon out there. Looks like a impressive hurricane now
Quoting 655. StormTrackerScott:

Danny continues to strengthen likely up to 80 mph now. I am seeing pressure drops of 8 to 10 mb so far this morning Roughly 990 to 992 mb so far.




Funny isn't it? yesterday the blog was filled with the "death to danny" posters about how he is dying a painful death...today the blog is filled with the regulars from years past posting like always...
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191426
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 14.8N 53.0W AT 22/2000Z.
B. P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY EVERY
12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: NOAA'S P-3 AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND DANNY AT 21/1300Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY
.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 13.8N 151.4W AT 21/1800Z AND
NEAR 14.8N 154.0W AT 22/0600Z.
$$
JWP
Quoting 655. StormTrackerScott:

Danny continues to strengthen likely up to 80 mph now. I am seeing pressure drops of 8 to 10 mb so far this morning Roughly 990 to 992 mb so far.




Where are you getting these pressure drop readings?
Quoting 661. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's no need to cling to automated satellite estimates that are known to struggle with small cyclones. A system with a well-organized central dense overcast and distinct eye deserves at the very least 65kt, if not 70kt or 75kt.


Highest Dvorak I have seen is 55 kt from TAFB

AL 04 201508201145 DVTS 4420W SAB 3030 /////
AL 04 201508201200 DVTS 4450W TAFB 3535 /////
TACO!!!!!
Quoting 666. taco2me61:

Didn't the models a few days ago say that Danny would be a Hurricane by today????
Also if I remember right some had him as a Cat 2 by this evening....

Taco :o)


Most had dropped it and had a weak ts going into the Islands and falling apart..
If Danny survives the thin river of 40 kt shear, better conditions are ahead. That is if the shear map does not change.



677. 7544
danny has a eye first thought a hurricane by today from the nhc then they changed that to friday so they were right if he is a hurricane now . so will we hurricane danny at 11 am on the new update or a 70 mph ts
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Quoting 672. pipelines:



Where are you getting these pressure drop readings?


LoL

Svengali?
Danny eye just got covered still appears to be moving W after it had its jog WNW then shifted W
Quoting 659. DogtownMex:

Wondering if anybody has stats on the smallest tropical storms/hurricanes and how they compare to Danny . Danny seems to be one of the smallest storms I have ever seen, kind cute even ;-).


I think Marco several years ago was smaller
Hope all goes well and good wishes for a quick recovery.

Quoting 427. Patrap:

Am off to take the wife to East Jefferson Hospital as Her shoulder surgery is for 8:30 am here.

Keep the Fort down and running.
683. 900MB
Quoting 672. pipelines:



Where are you getting these pressure drop readings?


I'm going 992mb, 55 kt
Quoting 660. tiggeriffic:

What up taz, pottery, Grothar.....
Spending the morning in 'idle mode'wathing the rain dribble down...
And you ?
Quoting 682. hurricanehanna:

Hope all goes well and good wishes for a quick recovery.





Thank you, She is about to go into Surgery at 10: 30 CDT here in Nola.


East Jefferson did both my shoulders here for the VA ,in May 2011, and July 2014. So She is in good hands as She has my Surgeon.

Quoting 639. scottsvb:



I'm expecting them to go with 75mph Hurricane Danny....but wouldn't shock me if it was 80+. He looks like a solid hurricane. I pressure reading was reported at 992mb but that was a few hours ago. I'm guessing it's around 985mb or lower. NHC does their report 1hr before the outlets recieve it..


Agreed, Danny is at least a 75-80 mph. Hurricane. Small storms do tend to strengthen quickly, but also dissipate quickly as well. It's going to be interesting how this storm handles with the upcoming conditions. This seems to be taking the same route as the EURO shows, a very small compact storm, then dissipating once it enters the Caribbean or north of the islands due to hostile conditions.
Quoting 674. tiggeriffic:

TACO!!!!!

Good Morning Tigger ((((Hugs))))
are you ready for this thing called "Danny"

Taco :o)
Quoting 684. pottery:



popping in and out to see if the hubby's namesake (Danny) is going to mess up me having a yard sale next weekend lol
11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20
Location: 12.5°N 44.8°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Tired of those hostile conditions
Looks like another convection burst near the eye.This was the original HWRF solution that it held onto for days until yesterday.
Quoting 687. taco2me61:


Good Morning Tigger ((((Hugs))))
are you ready for this thing called "Danny"

Taco :o)


I have a "thing" called danny....2 of them actually lol... a SR and a JR....I don't need a 3rd lol
Knowing the NHC, I'[m going with 70 mph. 992 mlb. for 11 a.m. If trends continue and Danny continues to impress, 75-80 mph. on a special advisory at 2 p.m. or at 5 p.m. We'll see, maybe the NHC will see what we are seeing or they are seeing something different then what we are seeing.
Hurricane Danny at 75 MPH

Taco :o)
NHC just changed Danny;s title to Hurricane Danny.
danny a hurricane
DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
699. 900MB
Hurricane!!!

75mph

at least I got the pressure right 992!
we have hurricane danny now big jump up 50 mph to 75 mph
Well well I'm actually a little surprised

Danny 1st Hurricane of the season 75mph 992mbs

Quoting 601. Grothar:

I have to reclassify Danny, sorry.

I am changing it from "Blobus Giganticus" to Blobus Minimus.


Carpe Ventus!
Ok, so the NHC pulled the trigger and went for a 75 mph. Hurricane. I can take that :)
Keep an eye on Buoy 41041... it is ~150 nm NW of Danny and should pass close enough by it later today:

Quoting 688. tiggeriffic:



popping in and out to see if the hubby's namesake (Danny) is going to mess up me having a yard sale next weekend lol


Danny giving you trouble, huh ?. )"))
Good luck with the sale.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Hurricane Danny

Last Updated 8/20/2015, 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 12.5N 44.8W Movement WNW at 12 mph
Wind 75 MPH Pressure: 992 MB
Quoting 651. washingtonian115:
Danny is the real MVP.Taking on those bad conditions in the Atlantic like a champ! I'm not even mad at cha'ya Danny boy (please don't hammer the islands though)


Too bad didn't develop as the 'R' storm. He would have been Rocky (Balboa).
Danny's a Hurricane!

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
Quoting 699. 900MB:

Hurricane!!!

75mph

at least I got the pressure right 992!


Yup me too. I suspect even the 75 mph winds are on the light side of reality right now with Danny. Again to bad recon isn't in there.
Hurricane Danny

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

From 7 Hours ago, the MicroWave Image shows Danny's structure well.



Hurricane Danny
We have a new yellow too.

Now for the next upcoming model runs.
This next run of 12z models will be the biggest of the year
ULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches)
Has the NHC shifted the track a little more north? Looks like it.
Quoting 710. StormTrackerScott:


Yup me too. I suspect even the 75 mph winds are on the light side of reality right now with Danny. Again to bad recon isn't in there.


I guess Danny became a hurricane sooner then NHC expected. What impact to the tracks will occur?
Hurricane DANNY Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 201447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 715. Torito:

We have a new yellow too.






your late
This is a CV Hurricane, not no June slouch of convection.





I guess this is the finger to people who doubted him.
725. 7544
wow he did naysayers and from a 50 mph ts to a hurricane im impressed what other surpises does he have in store wait watch and see .
726. JLPR2
Quoting 667. ncstorm:

The Islanders were asking for rain but may get more than what they ask for..

Be prepare..because there are other waves behind Danny that might be traveling in the same direction..





I really doubt they will be able to bring us back to normal.
In PR we need 20-30inches of rain to return to normal levels. :|
727. 900MB
Quoting 710. StormTrackerScott:



Yup me too. I suspect even the 75 mph winds are on the light side of reality right now with Danny. Again to bad recon isn't in there.


I have little doubt that it is in the 75mph area give or take, I was just surprised that NHC wasnt a little more conservative.
Forecast cone shifts W and very slightly N but basically no changes to forecast cone
Intensity forecast gone up

I think that cone will shift back S in a day or so IMO
Quoting 722. SnowBoarders:





your late
Funny how the hurricane icon completely covers Danny lol.
Quoting 720. rmbjoe1954:



I guess Danny became a hurricane sooner then NHC expected. What impact to the tracks will occur?


A few of us this morning figured Danny was a hurricane early on. It just became apparent NHC had no choice but to pull the trigger with such a well developed eye.
Please excuse my belated comment 721. The youngsters are waaay ahead of me.
Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 6m6 minutes ago
In 4 days, we could be looking at D, E, and F storms (what #ElNino) Saharan air / dust not killing off waves.
735. JRRP
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2 minHace 2 minutos Ver traducción
#Danny is the farthest south than a #hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin since Fred 2009 - impressive!
interesting
Quoting 726. JLPR2:



I really doubt they will be able to bring us back to normal.
In PR we need 20-30inches of rain to return to normal levels. :|


Plus Danny needs to really grow in size so we can get decent rains from him
Do you guys remember the 18Z GFS yesterday? I believe that's where Danny maybe wanting to head. Something to watch down the road could get mighty interesting across FL & the Gulf

Here is the cone; please don't hype a potential US hit given this current thinking. The Islands are first in line and need to keep a close watch on this one. It will be the first Hurricane strike entering the Caribbean in several years if this forecast verifies:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Quoting 719. win1gamegiantsplease:

Has the NHC shifted the track a little more north? Looks like it.


No not really more of a shift W it has shifted very slight N but not by much
Quoting 724. washingtonian115:

I guess this is the finger to people who doubted him.


Which one? LOL
Quoting 726. JLPR2:



I really doubt they will be able to bring us back to normal.
In PR we need 20-30inches of rain to return to normal levels. :|


I got 22 inches in 2010 from a single tropical system that wasn't named..(ex Nicole)

I wouldn't be doubting after looking at what could possibly be coming..
Although they held the pressure at 992mbs the more accurate reading is around 982-985mb. The pressure will fluctuate ALOT with small systems. In general a hurricane has a 987mb reading (+/- 1) but with such a small system and eye on visable should give us at least 985mbs. Again the 992 was about 2-3 hrs old. Danny is entering Dur Min time so he should stabilize. He could again get stronger tonight.
One should know how the NHC collects the data without recon, as its not Guess work, or staring at a Viiz image and tossing out any ol thang.

But then again..


It is Late August and we have a CV Cane with plans to travel.
745. 900MB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

Let's face it, intensity forecasts have been all over the map!!!
Well with Danny now a hurricane and the possible
formation of 2 other storms this month we would be
right at "Average" for this 2015 Hurricane Season.

just saying

Taco :o)
749. FOREX
Quoting 745. 900MB:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

Let's face it, intensity forecasts have been all over the map!!!
true, right now it is really day to day it seems.



wow up to yellow here now !!
Quoting 745. 900MB:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

Let's face it, intensity forecasts have been all over the map!!!


I said earlier I believe the initial intensity forecast by the NHC will pan out from a couple of days ago.
Quoting 738. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the cone; please don't hype a potential US hit given this current thinking. The Islands are first in line and need to keep a close watch on this one. It will be the first Hurricane strike entering the Caribbean in several years if this forecast verifies:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


It's expected to be a weakening hurricane, so effects may be much less than what we would expect during a strenghening storm like Gonzalo ...

I'm not worried at all with Danny at this time :) But I sure hope it will grow bigger in size.
Quoting 729. wunderkidcayman:

Forecast cone shifts W and very slightly N but basically no changes to forecast cone
Intensity forecast gone up

I think that cone will shift back S in a day or so IMO
I don't want to offend you, but why do you keep saying the track will shift south and west very unrealistically sometimes. You even go again's the NHC sometimes with center position and movement.
I think with such a small storm we will see Danny get ripped down to a remnant low by the time it gets as far west as PR.
Quoting 745. 900MB:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

Let's face it, intensity forecasts have been all over the map!!!


last reading at 120hrs....the hurricane going to tropical storm status is due to land interaction with PR. It's 4-5 days out...so it can be 100 miles south or 100 n of there
756. FOREX
Quoting 737. StormTrackerScott:

Do you guys remember the 18Z GFS yesterday? I believe that's where Danny maybe wanting to head. Something to watch down the road could get mighty interesting across FL & the Gulf


18Z took him right to my doorstep in Panama City Beach, lol. It's a long shot with all the shear ahead of him though. We shall see.
Quoting 738. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the cone; please don't hype a potential US hit given this current thinking. The Islands are first in line and need to keep a close watch on this one. It will be the first Hurricane strike entering the Caribbean in several years if this forecast verifies:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


The islands are poised to get their needed rainfall from this and hopefully damage will be minimal.

Although the chart has Danny in their midst Monday the track will undoubtedly change multiple times.
Quoting 730. MiamiHurricanes09:

Funny how the hurricane icon completely covers Danny lol.


I knew Danny was small, but didn't even notice it was that small until you pointed this out.
Is...........is that a hurricane I see in the Atlantic........the Tropical Atlantic?!

8^D
Quoting 752. CaribBoy:



It's expected to be a weakening hurricane, so effects may be much less than what we would expect during a strenghening storm like Gonzalo ...

I'm not worried at all with Danny at this time :) But I sure hope it will grow bigger in size.
The problem with Danny for all of us here in the islands is the small size. Small TC can go poof in a couple of hours when facing strong shear and dry air. We need a wet slow system with convection not a dry spin. Hope i said all that right.
Quoting 755. scottsvb:



last reading at 120hrs....the hurricane going to tropical storm status is due to land interaction with PR. It's 4-5 days out...so it can be 100 miles south or 100 n of there


Mariners rule is 100 miles per day is the distance the cone can be off....just an FYI
Quoting 751. StormTrackerScott:


I said earlier I believe the initial intensity forecast by the NHC will pan out from a couple of days ago.


Intensity forecasting is almost as scientific as a coin toss.
Quoting 752. CaribBoy:



It's expected to be a weakening hurricane, so effects may be much less than what we would expect during a strenghening storm like Gonzalo ...

I'm not worried at all with Danny at this time :) But I sure hope it will grow bigger in size.


If this track verifies, and he does not grow in size, the Lesser Antilles are going to remain bone dry (they need some rain too) and most of the rain is headed towards the Upper Antilles and PR/Hispanola.
THIS IS THE offical plan for the HURRICANE HUNTERS to fly Hurricane Danny which will give MUCH more accurate info on the system than what we can get from satellite. So when Danny gets near 14.8 N they will fly into it.. It is now 12.5 N

Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 191426
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 14.8N 53.0W AT 22/2000Z.
B. P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY EVERY
12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: NOAA'S P-3 AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND DANNY AT 21/1300Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY


Martha
Quoting 754. DogtownMex:

I think with such a small storm we will see Danny get ripped down to a remnant low by the time it gets as far west as PR.



This could happen....I mentioned it could be as strong as a Cat 2 by Friday but a TS swirl moving away from the MLC by sunday as the shear rips into him... I said it was speculation,,and still is...but this is what happens in small-compact systems.
Quoting 762. rmbjoe1954:



Intensity forecasting is almost as scientific as a coin toss.
Tell that to the people working at the NHC.
The small size of Danny is depressing !
Quoting 755. scottsvb:



last reading at 120hrs....the hurricane going to tropical storm status is due to land interaction with PR. It's 4-5 days out...so it can be 100 miles south or 100 n of there


What will the conditions be like if this doesn't hit any land areas?
Thank you for your input btw.
NHC says weakness in the Atlantic ridge expected to close up and move out by 96-120hrs throwing Danny W I say much sooner than that I say weakness close up and move out by 48/72hrs and the Atlantic ridge continues to build 72hrs going forward

Quoting 760. Gearsts:

The problem with Danny for all of us here in the islands is the small size. Small TC can go poof in a couple of hours when facing strong shear and dry air. We need a wet slow system with convection not a dry spin. Hope i said all that right.


I agree at 100%, if not 200%! Come on Danny!!!
Quoting 759. Tornado6042008X:

Is...........is that a hurricane I see in the Atlantic........the Tropical Atlantic?!

8^D



nop its a open wave with a eye
773. FOREX
Quoting 766. washingtonian115:

He wants it to hit him.
I want it to hit me, so too bad!!!!
Le't see what the 12z GFS says.
Quoting 763. weathermanwannabe:



If this track verifies, and he does not grow in size, the Lesser Antilles are going to remain bone dry (they need some rain too) and most of the rain is headed towards the Upper Antilles and PR/Hispanola.


I'm at 18N 63W... and I'm still not sure we will get more than 1 inch from Danny :(
Quoting 768. CaribBoy:

The small size of Danny is depressing !
Danny is lucky to be around with all that SAL and dry air. Let's see what happens when he passes 55 west with the warmer water. He might enlarge some.
1st thing 1st Danny needs too get past the 40kt of shear 2nd it needs too get march biger or the 40kt of shear will do a # on Danny


watching danny nice looking hurricane right now
I would not be surprised to see Danny downgraded back to a tropical storm in the next advisory.
780. SLU
Quoting 775. CaribBoy:



I'm at 18N 63W... and I'm still not sure we will get more than 1 inch from Danny :(


Two hurricanes in 10 months CaribBoy. Doesn't get much better than that.
Quoting 777. SnowBoarders:

1st thing 1st Danny needs too get past the 40kt of shear 2nd it needs too get march biger or the 40kt of shear will do a # on Danny

And yet the NHC sees good reason that it will stay a Cat 1 all the way to the Caribbean.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
Incredible comparison of #Atsani to #Danny. Danny could ALMOST fit in the eye of Atsani. Mark Lander credit to image

Quoting 717. chrisdscane:
This next run of 12z models will be the biggest of the year
LOL
Quoting 781. opal92nwf:


And yet the NHC sees good reason that it will stay a Cat 1 all the way to the Caribbean.



ture on that
3 scenarios with Danny..

1) Stronger storm..north of the Islands -trough..Out to Sea

2) Stronger Storm -North Of the Islands -ridge builds back in -Bahamas/east coast hit

3) Goes through the Islands, weak-heads west, falls apart ends up in GOM..

Signed Captain Obvious..

Quoting 775. CaribBoy:



I'm at 18N 63W... and I'm still not sure we will get more than 1 inch from Danny :(
I'm here in Puerto Rico and I think Danny will be destroy before reach the lessers.Wind shear and SAL in charge.
facepalm
Pending Dr. Master's take I will note this; a small storm can often defeat some odds in terms of intensity but it is also subject to more impacts if unfavorable conditions arise in the small synoptic environment. It's going to be touch and go over the next 48 hours for Danny. Better organization also means a better chance of ingesting some dry air into the circulation. Shear issues aside for the moment, the greatest challenge for Danny is to keep firing convection to keep the core insulated and hoping that he does not ingest a big gulp of dry air that will be harder to mix out:

I won't be convinced as to a short-term clean bill of health all the way to the Caribbean until I start to see some meaty rain banding which is currently non-existent.

791. FOREX
Quoting 789. Gearsts:

facepalm

There's always tonight.
NHC graphics show Danny diminished to Tropical Storm by Tuesday near PR
Quoting 595. SnowBoarders:




am back this going too ueasd this has my name long in name for some odd resson my snowstorm36@live.com email this will not send me my pass word reset link i think it tide in too my facebook long in wish now they got ride of but not matter i will this uesd this has my user name but you guy can still call me taz
Ok, will do. Keep up with your posting.
Quoting 786. ncstorm:

3 scenarios with Danny..

1) Stronger storm..north of the Islands -trough..Out to Sea

2) Stronger Storm -North Of the Islands -ridge builds back in -Bahamas/east coast hit

3) Goes through the Islands, weak-heads west, falls apart ends up in GOM..

Signed Captain Obvious..




Most likely scenario - Option C. Unless the trades suddenly change the SWRLY course once Danny reaches the ECB, it's gonna be game over.
Wish GOES-R was operational.
Quoting 769. reedzone:



What will the conditions be like if this doesn't hit any land areas?
Thank you for your input btw.


It all depends on the shear. If it's over 15-20kts, it could cause a decoupling for such a small compact system....Hard to say really.
earlier 1217 UTC MicroWave Image

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)



If Danny, as small as it is, stays on its projected NHC track, the land mass and mountains of Hispaniola should take care of it if the shear doesn't. Of course, the projected track remains to be seen.
Quoting 777. SnowBoarders:

1st thing 1st Danny needs too get past the 40kt of shear 2nd it needs too get march biger or the 40kt of shear will do a # on Danny


and don't forget the humongous SAL to its north as seen on WV imagery
Quoting 792. Thunderground:

NHC graphics show Danny diminished to Tropical Storm by Tuesday near PR
NHC are our friends here,that's why.
808. FOREX
Quoting 800. Climate175:


Now that the eye is gone the HH head out, lol. oh well.
I remember a TD 10 being dismissed in 2005.

I for one never discount any CV seed, as they are known for their tenacity.


Danny is "Tenacious "D".

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop


He is going to need some banding to help keep the drier air at bay as he pushes West:

Thanks Dr Masters for this post about something I had never heard of and now want to investigate. I'll see if the references describe what initially excites these waves and might change their statistics. that's actually of more interest to me than what they do once formed.

So much to learn, so few years!
ok why is post 803 not showing any commits for me any one else?
Looks like more fun with the next one.

15:23:00Z 25.867N 79.633W 170.1 mb
(~ 5.02 inHg) 13,493 meters
(~ 44,268 feet) - 687 meters
(~ 2,254 feet) From 48° at 19 knots
(From the NE at ~ 21.9 mph) -62.9°C*
(~ -81.2°F*) -* 21 knots
(~ 24.2 mph) - - - -
At 15:13:30Z (first observation), the observation was 44 statue miles (71 km) to the WNW (296°) from Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA.
At 15:23:00Z (last observation), the observation was 37 statue miles (59 km) to the ESE (120°) from Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA.
from the shear map I saw on TV, the reason Danny is not getting torn apart is because he is so small he is sliding in underneath it...I am not, by any means, a meteorologist, but from what I have gathered over the years of lurking on this blog is that many storms compact to intensify and then grow after that....but even with its small size, it is approximately 120 miles across moving at about 10mph...that in essence would be a 12 hour storm if you took a direct hit....by no means is it an Andrew or Hugo, but it isn't anything to sneeze at either...the mariners 1,2,3 rule could make a huge difference in what happens...I personally am waiting a few days before I jump the gun and post troll type stuff and get into an argument on here...it is needless....that cone is to give an IDEA of what is going to happen...predicting the exact strength and position of where a hurricane will hit is like giving the date that Mt. St. Helens is going to erupt....give the people at NHC a chance to do their jobs...they can only use the information they have...and btw...it is WAY better than 100 years ago when unless a ship was out to sea they didn't even know a can was coming.....
Very small hurricane, or very large F0 tornado.
819. PTXer
Quoting 748. Patrap:




Pat, is your wife out of surgery yet?
Just like in 1992 a lil compact storm named Andrew during an El Nino year wasn't supposed to do much, even go out to sea, and then that lil compact storm had it's sight on S Florida and demolished everything in it's path as a Cat 5.
NOAA9 Training Mission
Type: Upper-level / Dropsonde | Status: In Progress

As of 15:33 UTC Aug 20, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 25.30°N 78.47°W
Bearing: 124° at 405 kt
Altitude: 14059 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 32 kt at 79°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A


HWRF backing down on a strong hurricane

Houston is grateful for the rain, but why must it all fall in 24 hours?
Quoting 819. PTXer:



Pat, is your wife out of surgery yet?


She had the nerve block and just went in at 10:30 am here.

The procedure should take about 2 hours,,..then a couple in recovery, then home hopefully.

Thanks for asking.
Quoting 821. RitaEvac:

Just like in 1992 a lil compact storm named Andrew during an El Nino year wasn't supposed to do much, even go out to sea, and then that lil compact storm had it's sight on S Florida and demolished everything in it's path as a Cat 5.


I did not realize Andrew was in an El Nino year.....ty for the insight
828. txjac
Quoting 806. RitaEvac:





Nice, nice rain isnt it? Loving all the thunder and lightening ...totally awesome. Wish I were at home though.
Quite a bit of flooding where I'm at right now. Hopefully it lets up in the next couple of hours so it has time to drain off before the commute home
Quoting 826. Patrap:



She had the nerve block and just went in at 10:30 am here.

The procedure should take about 2 hours,,..then a couple in recovery, then home hopefully.

Thanks for asking.


Prayers for her and the docs......
When 12z models come out....most won't have the correct strength initialized. I would wait till really the 0Z model runs. Again, especially for small systems... just go up to 72 hrs
Quoting 817. tiggeriffic:

from the shear map I saw on TV, the reason Danny is not getting torn apart is because he is so small he is sliding in underneath it...I am not, by any means, a meteorologist, but from what I have gathered over the years of lurking on this blog is that many storms compact to intensify and then grow after that....but even with its small size, it is approximately 120 miles across moving at about 10mph...that in essence would be a 12 hour storm if you took a direct hit....by no means is it an Andrew or Hugo, but it isn't anything to sneeze at either...the mariners 1,2,3 rule could make a huge difference in what happens...I personally am waiting a few days before I jump the gun and post troll type stuff and get into an argument on here...it is needless....that cone is to give an IDEA of what is going to happen...predicting the exact strength and position of where a hurricane will hit is like giving the date that Mt. St. Helens is going to erupt....give the people at NHC a chance to do their jobs...they can only use the information they have...and btw...it is WAY better than 100 years ago when unless a ship was out to sea they didn't even know a can was coming.....


So...bigger than Charley. Nope, not gonna count Danny out at all.
For telling the truth though xD everyone knows it.People please follow the NHC 's track as that is the one to follow.
Compact lil storm
The cloud tops are not very cool as of yet so he has a way to go in terms of the maturation process; di-max later this evening-early am may help:



Not saying this will ever happen with Danny given current conditions but this particular model map is very eerie to those (inlcuding myself) that went through Andrew.
Quoting 737. StormTrackerScott:

Do you guys remember the 18Z GFS yesterday? I believe that's where Danny maybe wanting to head. Something to watch down the road could get mighty interesting across FL & the Gulf





Way too many obstacles and time, it could dissipate and/or move in many possible directions. This is hardly the point to begin talking about a FL landfall, lol.
New floater is up on 97L:

Quoting 838. Neyewall:

Not saying this will ever happen with Danny given current conditions but this particular model map is very eerie to those (inlcuding myself) that went through Andrew.


yeah...a little eerie for those of us who when thru Hugo as well....it was a FL storm...kept going...then it was a GA storm....kept going....I don't take ANY storm lightly until it is PAST me by a LONG way...
Quoting 826. Patrap:



She had the nerve block and just went in at 10:30 am here.

The procedure should take about 2 hours,,..then a couple in recovery, then home hopefully.

Thanks for asking.

Prayers for your wife Pat
Quoting 827. tiggeriffic:



I did not realize Andrew was in an El Nino year.....ty for the insight

The El Nino was largely gone by the peak of the season. The July-August-September averaged ocean temperature departure in Nino 3.4 was 0.2C. Down to an average of 0C by August-September-October.
its hurricane danny starting to weaking now The cloud tops are not that high now
GFS initialization matches the pressure the NHC went with.

848. FOREX
Quoting 841. GTstormChaserCaleb:

New floater is up on 97L:


That mess has a floater?
Quoting 832. flbeachgirl:



So...bigger than Charley. Nope, not gonna count Danny out at all.


Danny looks about the same size as Charley.


watching invest 97L TO
Quoting 815. Grothar:

Looks like more fun with the next one.




It is that special time of year.



Cue the hype, TWC.
854. JRRP
Scott Kelly ‏@StationCDRKelly 22 minHace 22 minutos Ver traducción
#HurricaneDanny Keeping an eye on you from @space_station. Looks like you're 1st in Atlantic. Stay safe! #YearInSpace
Link
its small now but it could morph into something else downstream just love these cv systems


I SEE INVEST 97L moving north and going back to the nw and back to the north

Quoting 797. nash36:



Most likely scenario - Option C. Unless the trades suddenly change the SWRLY course once Danny reaches the ECB, it's gonna be game over.
Option D: POOF
bouncing out till after next update....


hurricane danny maybe start to weaking soon!! no more eye
97 is on the way
Man, that guy seriously is on here 24 hours a day commenting it seems..insane, anyways danny going through another cycle, will get better as the day goes, but down the line who knows
Quoting 857. PedleyCA:


Option D: POOF

maybe would not be surprised at all
Quoting 840. Patrap:


Dannys shrinking?
Tropical Storm Marco (2008) compared to Hurricane Danny (2015), to scale:

865. FOREX
Looks to my amateur eye that Danny will be South of the NHC's next point.
That has to be the smallest, most meager hurricane I've seen in the catl. I have hope for it though...

I hope 2016 is active
.
outflow boundary.
Quoting 863. unknowncomic:

Dannys shrinking?
vaporized cycle commence danny the disappearing hurricane
871. MahFL
Quoting 808. FOREX:

Now that the eye is gone the HH head out, lol. oh well.


They are not going to the hurricane, they are re positioning for future flights.
Wont be long now...

873. FOREX
Quoting 871. MahFL:



They are not going to the hurricane, they are re positioning for future flights.
ahhhhhhhh, ok.
874. MahFL
Quoting 827. tiggeriffic:



I did not realize Andrew was in an El Nino year.....ty for the insight


When Andrew formed the El Nino event had ended and conditions were neutral.
Funny my boss asked me yesterday what we need to do for Danny (freaking out).
I replied just watch and wait we still have a lot of variables coming up.
876. JRRP
GFS kills Danny once again
Not going to ache over each 30 minute satt slice but will check back on the structure later this afternoon after several hours in terms of current short-term trends but will note from the most recent RAMBB vis shot that Danny is starting to form some albeit small banding features in the E-SE sides..............While the eye was more prominent a few hours ago, the banding structure is a little better now:

This Morning:



Now:



lets see if we see the eye in a few hours
I thought we would have a New Blog by now
and give us all new insight on what is really
going own with Hurricane Danny

Taco :o)
People are back to writing up funeral services again?
882. JRRP
Quoting 881. washingtonian115:

People are back to writing up funeral services again?

lol
Quoting 880. taco2me61:
I thought we would have a New Blog by now
and give us all new insight on what is really
going own with Hurricane Danny

Taco :o)


Grothar has to add a comment on this blog before they open a new one about this time daily. That's the modus operandi.
Quoting 881. washingtonian115:

People are back to writing up funeral services again?


I know right. Wow that did not take long

Taco :o)
Quoting 881. washingtonian115:

People are back to writing up funeral services again?


Just stating the obvious in this particular situation
  Marco on Steroids....
Quoting 866. GatorWX:

That has to be the smallest, most meager hurricane I've seen in the catl. I have hope for it though...




Wasn't 2010s Lisa really small
I think that given the El niño conditions this year we should consider ourselfves lucky that we have something to track in the Atlantic. Good news is that Puerto Rico will get that much needed rain. Hopefully it will get them out of the water rationing.
889. bwi
FYI if you haven't seen this it's really cool, earth.nullschool.net now has particulate and dust overlays.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/particulates /surface/level/overlay=duexttau/orthographic=-35.5 9,4.93,280
890. MahFL
Eye of Danny starting to clear out again:

Look I'm not one to write this thing off.
There is to much going for it, and if you have
been here long enough you know they all
go through these types of stages.
Hurricane Danny is small but I'm thinking
Danny will grow in size over time....
just my opinion....

Taco :o)
Quoting 891. taco2me61:

Look I'm not one to write this thing off.
There is to much going for it, and if you have
been here long enough you know they all
go through these types of stages.
Hurricane Danny is small but I'm thinking
Danny will grow in size over time....
just my opinion....

Taco :o)


I've been here long enough. =]
Quoting 881. washingtonian115:

People are back to writing up funeral services again?


I don't think Danny belong to the Obituary section just yet lol, but yes, the Hurricane Undertakers are on standby right now.
Not surprising Danny is a hurricane as some of us took note of yesterday of some of the imminent signs.
895. 7544
Quoting 877. mcluvincane:

GFS kills Danny once again


thow this run out he was just upgraded the new one will be better
Quoting 853. Articuno:




Cue the hype, TWC.
It has been a hurricane since this morning, now they gave it the status,, a real tiny Little ciclon.. but a hurricane never the less, with a very clear "eye"...
I continue to believe that what's not making headlines, but probably should be, is 93C in the C-Pac. The 12z GFS is potentially disastrous for parts of Hawaii (which is a US state, btw). It looks like the Big Island will be spared, but farther west all bets may be off. Unfortunately, the exact pressure isn't given at the impact times, but it's 970mb at 108 hours, and it appears to at least maintain, if not strengthen, beyond then. Not etched in stone, it may end up west of all the islands, or it could be much weaker than this projection, but we're only talking ~4-5 days out here.



Also, at the top left is Atsani, going extratropical. It appears that system will not be a threat to Japan, but Goni may be.
Quoting 894. Drakoen:

Not surprising Danny is a hurricane as some of us took note of yesterday of some of the imminent signs.
lol
Quoting 893. CaneHunter031472:



I don't think Danny belong to the Obituary section just yet lol, but yes, the Hurricane Undertakers are on standby right now.


Based on what exactly?
Quoting 881. washingtonian115:

People are back to writing up funeral services again?
yes
Check out the cool fall air filtering down through Minnesota and the central plains, sure wish that would reach NW Florida!


Quoting 854. JRRP:

Scott Kelly %u200F@StationCDRKelly 22 minHace 22 minutos Ver traduccin
#HurricaneDanny Keeping an eye on you from @space_station. Looks like you're 1st in Atlantic. Stay safe! #YearInSpace
Link
I'm at 18.3.N 67.0 W,
heading to cross Puerto Rico from SE to NW....
Quoting 895. 7544:



thow this run out he was just upgraded the new one will be better

I disagree. The 12z GFS full resolution grid initialized Danny perfectly. There's a reason it shows weakening. A combination of shear and dry air should kill or dramatically weaken Danny within 5-6 days.

Danny's doing its own thing so far, and that's fun to see, but no storm can strengthen in the conditions that he is moving into in a couple days.
Quoting 839. Jedkins01:




Way too many obstacles and time, it could dissipate and/or move in many possible directions. This is hardly the point to begin talking about a FL landfall, lol.
As you know, on this blog they start talking about a Florida landfall when the satellite picks up a mass of disturbed weather crossing the African continent.
Hello,
I am new to this blog so I am happy to be on the blog.
Danny has shocked me with the strength and I believe by friday and saturday we should know what will happen.
Also it looks like something off of africa so we need to watch the tropics for awhile.
Thank you
i can tell you, it is Awesome!
Quoting 901. 69Viking:

Check out the cool fall air filtering down through Minnesota and the central plains, sure wish that would reach NW Florida!



A view of our little 'cane from space:

Fin de la sequia

The end of PRs drought
Quoting 905. WeatherLover213:

Hello,
I am new to this blog so I am happy to be on the blog.
Danny has shocked me with the strength and I believe by friday and saturday we should know what will happen.
Also it looks like something off of africa so we need to watch the tropics for awhile.
Thank you
Welcome to the blog.
Quoting 905. WeatherLover213:

Hello,
I am new to this blog so I am happy to be on the blog.
Danny has shocked me with the strength and I believe by friday and saturday we should know what will happen.
Also it looks like something off of africa so we need to watch the tropics for awhile.
Thank you
You're welcome.
Quoting 903. MAweatherboy1:


I disagree. The 12z GFS full resolution grid initialized Danny perfectly. There's a reason it shows weakening. A combination of shear and dry air should kill or dramatically weaken Danny within 5-6 days.

Danny's doing its own thing so far, and that's fun to see, but no storm can strengthen in the conditions that he is moving into in a couple days.
On top of that if the track were to continue to take it towards Hispaniola that would finish Danny off, it would have to be at least a hurricane during that time to survive passage over that rugged terrain. Still I think Danny's track may be heavily influenced by how strong 97L gets and if a bigger weakness opens up and it goes north of the islands. By the way for Hawaii's sake the GFS track looks similar to Iniki in 1992, hopefully that won't be the case.
Quoting 864. Hurricane1216:

Tropical Storm Marco (2008) compared to Hurricane Danny (2015), to scale:



Remembering Cyclone Tracy, also a tiny object.
Cyclone Tracy, Wiki
Quoting 906. Minnemike:

i can tell you, it is Awesome!



I bet, September is just around the corner so we should be getting some of those fronts to push far enough South by then! Football season will be in full swing by then too, go Vikings!
Quoting 905. WeatherLover213:

Hello,
I am new to this blog so I am happy to be on the blog.
Danny has shocked me with the strength and I believe by friday and saturday we should know what will happen.
Also it looks like something off of africa so we need to watch the tropics for awhile.
Thank you
Welcome to the blog bro or bra. Lol. Ask if you have any questions just feel free to ask. Have fun. :)
Quoting 908. sunlinepr:

Fin de la sequia

The end of PRs drought


Can't see. link it
Quoting 883. rmbjoe1954:



Grothar has to add a comment on this blog before they open a new one about this time daily. That's the modus operandi.


OK. If you insist. But the Doc and Mr. Henson don't like to be rushed. They will have some interesting news
The 12z HWRF also had a spot on initialization of Danny as well.




hurricane danny starting to weaking littie here!! maybe some wind shear and dry air
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 888. CaneHunter031472:
I think that given the El niño conditions this year we should consider ourselfves lucky that we have something to track in the Atlantic. Good news is that Puerto Rico will get that much needed rain. Hopefully it will get them out of the water rationing.


They are over 30 inches under. Danny won't get them out of their rationing but will make a dent in the drought.

Ascat view of the African wave future 98 L. Very good circulation.
Quoting 919. hurricanes2018:




hurricane danny starting to weaking littie here!! maybe some wind shear and dry air


Combo of Dir Min and sinking air around him... he should pulse until Sunday...then shear also kicks in
if you look at the s.a.l. product from cimss for Tuesday you will notice the dry dusty air generally to the north of Danny. by yesterday the dry mid level air was impinging on the storm. a little ' orange ' color just to the west of the center and an almost 'falling apart' of the storm.
by today the dryer air had receded a bit northward. a progressively better presentation on satellite images over the last 18 hours would coincide with this moister air available to the storm. it would seem to me that Danny's small size
is a consolidation of resources. in other words Danny is trying to deal with the lack of moisture by becoming smaller.
s.a.l. from north Africa and high vertical wind shear from ( a product of e.n.s.o.) from the pacific are are widespread across the Atlantic basin this summer. this does not bode well for Danny's future.




Quoting 901. 69Viking:

Check out the cool fall air filtering down through Minnesota and the central plains, sure wish that would reach NW Florida!



75 w/ a 54 dew pt in S C IL Vike! back up to 30" after 29.7"s while storms came thru, received 1.6" here, though heard some 4" in area. Not a cloud in the sky! Wonderful weather for mid August!

Hope Danny gives the islands at least that much rain.
.
Quoting 912. cRRKampen:


Remembering Cyclone Tracy, also a tiny object.
Cyclone Tracy, Wiki


Was Tip really THAT big? I see that comparison pic in the wiki page and Tip in the satellite photos doesn't seem as big as the chart indicates. I know Tip was massive, but that comparison seems...overblown?
Quoting 815. Grothar:

Looks like more fun with the next one.




you must be near blob heaven...