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Tropical Storm Danny Gathers Strength in Atlantic

By: Bob Henson 11:33 PM GMT on August 18, 2015

After more than a month between named Atlantic storms--a somewhat unusual occurrence between late July and late August over the last few years--Tropical Storm Danny was christened at 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday. Located at 10.9°N, 37.5°W, or about 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands, Danny was moving west at 12 mph. Sustained winds were at minimal tropical storm strength: 40 mph. Danny has a small core of heavy showers and thunderstorms (convection), surrounded by a fairly large envelope of clouds and scattered storms. Visible and infrared satellite loops show convection rapidly strengthening over the last several hours near Danny’s center and in surrounding bands.


Figure 1. Visible image of Danny collected by the GOES-East floater satellite at 1945 GMT Tuesday (3:45 pm EDT), just before it was upgraded to tropical-storm status. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. NHC’s outlook for Tropical Storm Danny as of 5:00 pm EDT Tuesday.

There was little change in the prognosis for Danny from the NHC’s 11:00 am EDT advisory to the 5:00 pm edition (see Figure 2 above). Wind shear around Danny should remain below 10 - 15 mph for most of the next five days, and sea-surface temperatures along Danny’s path will average near 28°C (82°F) for that entire period. Both of these factors point toward a good chance that Danny will strengthen over the next several days. The NHC projects that Danny will become the year’s first Atlantic hurricane by Thursday morning and grow to Category 2 strength (sustained winds of 100 mph) by Saturday. This long-range forecast is consistent with the statistical models that show more skill than dynamical models at intensity prediction beyond 3 days. Of the two dynamical models most trusted for intensity forecasting, the recently upgraded HWRF has consistently called for Danny to develop into at least a strong Category 1 hurricane. The GFDL failed to develop Danny until today’s runs, but its 1200 GMT Tuesday run brings Danny well above the hurricane-strength threshold, much more in line with the HWRF. If Danny continues to develop at a healthy clip, a period of more rapid intensification later this week cannot be ruled out. Such phases remain very difficult to predict.

Most of the dynamical track models now move Danny toward the west-northwest at a fairly modest pace until this weekend, when a building ridge to the north should help push it at a faster rate. By that point, Danny would draw on oceanic heat content that gradually increases along its path. However, a large area of dry air and Saharan dust north of Danny may inhibit its development at times. With a solid convective core, Danny might be able to fend off interference from this dry, dusty air until it encounters pockets of stronger wind shear, a possibility that long-range models are suggesting for this weekend into early next week. Thus, there is no guarantee that Danny would maintain whatever strength it attains in the deep tropics, and it is still far too early to predict with any confidence how much of a threat Danny might pose to the United States if it survives the long trek. A small change in trajectory now would have big implications for the track many days from now.


Figure 3. Intensity forecasts for Tropical Storm Danny as of 1800 GMT Tuesday, August 18. Models shown are GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; ICON and IVCN = blends of statistical and dynamical model guidance used at the National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Infrared satellite image of Typhoon Atsani from NASA’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) at 1509 GMT Tuesday (9:09 am EDT). Image credit: NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA, courtesy Dan Lindsey.

In the Pacific: Goni, Atsani continue to rage
Two massive tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific--Typhoon Goni and Typhoon Atsani--continue to churn over open water, with no significant changes in strength over the last few hours. See this morning’s post for more on Goni and Atsani.

We’ll have a full update on Danny, Goni, and Atsani by midday Wednesday.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. MahFL
A good sign, yellow returns on the wv palette6 image :

Quoting 953. kmanislander:

Danny just took a significant jog to the North. See last few frames of the visible loop.


Meh it wasn't that big of a jog anyway it has appeared to have returned back to W

Likely the jog or wobble was a result of the LLC tightening up and convection popping
1003. 900MB
Quoting 975. hydrus:

Greetings 900MB..It was not a question directed to me, but I really dig the subject, and hope that you will forgive my interjection. Tropical cyclones are a heat transfer system as you know. The heat being released into the atmosphere condensing into rain and storms produce mass. Coriolis Effect along with centripetal forces worked together to consolidate the thunderstorms around a low pressure center. My favorite part of this phenomenon is when conditions for a hurricane are absolutely perfect. 0 vertical shear, water temps between 88 and 92 degrees, and above 10 degrees north as to feel the Earths rotation. The speed and efficiency of this atmospheric structure fascinates me, and has since I was a kid. Baroclinic lows also grab my scientific eye, also because of the huge and swift processes that can occur with deadly consequences for 1000,s of people who are unfortunate enough to be in the path. Back in 1988, when Frank Marks was on NOVA with Dr. Masters, he called hurricane forecasting similar to predicting a wad of jello in a giant river of water, and it takes there finest computer models to help them determine there past. Really cool stuff, and it is why I,m here..:)


It is fascinating, and there are so many unknowns. I guess that is why we are all here trying to figure out small pieces of a very big puzzle!
Banana Ridge

I have a question. At the point where the plots end, does this mean the storm is no more? Or is this a 5 day type deal? TIA.
Quoting 993. Grothar:

The 1200





1006. Gearsts
Quoting 1000. TeleConnectSnow:

12z GFS is also much weaker this time around, a good 12-13 MB weaker comparing hours. Not surprised though with how Danny at the moment looks.
GFS virtually identical to the 06z run.
1007. Gearsts
Very clear WNW.
Quoting 969. pipelines:

I know everyone is excited about our underwear clad swirl in the atlantic, but what's going on in the Pacific is pretty incredible.

The air is sinking so rapidly in the eye of Atsani it's coming up as dry on the water vapor, you don't see this often.



Not to be outdone, Goni is making a run for cat 5 status as well. Have we ever had simultaneous cat 5's in the same basin before?


Yes. Ivan and Joan on October 1997
1009. ricderr
I have a question. At the point where the plots end, does this mean the storm is no more? Or is this a 5 day type deal? TIA.


that's the end of the run
Quoting 1006. Gearsts:

GFS virtually identical to the 06z run.


Yeah you're right, it originally was weaker then ramped up just west/north of the islands
A big OTS this run, Danny swimming with the fishes
1013. Gearsts
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago
Danny struggling with stable air, but low-level structure appears healthy. Setback may only be temporary.
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
#Danny is no longer in the ripe CCKW environment that favors deep convection. Might be a reason why its collapsing
The 8th category 5 of the year:

Super Typhoon Atsani.

Quoting 985. EdMahmoud:



Cloud tops are fairly warm, convection isn't strong, but it nowhere near being a naked swirl one sees with a badly sheared system or an East Pac storm that has moved over cold, stable water and lost all convection. 'Naked swirl' and variants, maybe used a bit too much.


I agree, that's why I said underwear clad swirl. The COC is fairly exposed to view, so you could say it's "partially" clothed.
Quoting 1013. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago
Danny struggling with stable air, but low-level structure appears healthy. Setback may only be temporary.


If you consider that the current NHC forecast does not call for hurricane status until Friday morning, then we should have a better picture of how well it did against the stable air issues by tomorrow afternoon.
1017. Gearsts
I guess Michael Ventrice is not a fan of Danny.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
Is that a little eye trying to pop out of #Danny? No it's NOT, convection is now decoupling from its circulation.
3 storms lined up in the MDR on the GFS. #El Nino 2015.


gfs showing a new tropical storm with 1009 mb
TEDDY!!!! I didn't think I would be on here this year for a cane watch...here we go again lol
1021. ncstorm
12z UKMET has a strengthening Danny heading towards the Bahamas..

WTNT80 EGRR 191618


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2015



TROPICAL STORM DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 40.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2015 11.1N 40.8W MODERATE

00UTC 20.08.2015 12.0N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2015 12.2N 45.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2015 13.2N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2015 14.2N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2015 15.3N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2015 16.3N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2015 17.0N 54.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2015 17.5N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2015 18.5N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2015 19.7N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2015 21.4N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2015 23.2N 64.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
1022. Patrap
One can easily see the convection firing again in the S and Sw Quad of the CoC in the last frames.

Das Bloom'



looks like it is trying to pull away from MT/ITCZ. His true journey begins once that happens.
1024. Gearsts

VS
1025. ncstorm
12z Navgem is running..

From one of the NOAA pages on SAL (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A17.html)
Looks familiar:

1027. ricderr
3 storms lined up in the MDR on the GFS. #El Nino 2015.

first...i can't help but say this....THE MDR IS DEAD.........DEAD I TELL. YOU....NO NEED TO WASTE YOUR TIME LOOKING THERE....ONLY ACTION WE'LL SEE THIS YEAR IS CLOSE TO HOME....

seriously however....crown weather mentioned yesterday that there is a possibility of three active systems by next week
1028. Gearsts
1029. MahFL
Danny is no longer naked, shear is virtually non existent :

1030. 62901IL
Quoting 969. pipelines:

I know everyone is excited about our underwear clad swirl in the atlantic, but what's going on in the Pacific is pretty incredible.

The air is sinking so rapidly in the eye of Atsani it's coming up as dry on the water vapor, you don't see this often.



Not to be outdone, Goni is making a run for cat 5 status as well. Have we ever had simultaneous cat 5's in the same basin before?


That's amazing. Here's a more recent loop



And here's Goni.



Just looks beautiful.
Quoting 1021. ncstorm:

12z UKMET has a strengthening Danny heading towards the Bahamas..

WTNT80 EGRR 191618


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2015



TROPICAL STORM DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 40.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042015



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2015 11.1N 40.8W MODERATE

00UTC 20.08.2015 12.0N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2015 12.2N 45.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2015 13.2N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2015 14.2N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2015 15.3N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2015 16.3N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2015 17.0N 54.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2015 17.5N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2015 18.5N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2015 19.7N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2015 21.4N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2015 23.2N 64.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



No that's well east of the bahamas
04L/TS/D/CX


I see danny has stripped down and now about to try on a new set of clouds
good it did not take off but there is still lots of time

slept in this am late for work just in on lunch here

well ta you were right no cane by 9 am this morning its having troubles like as expected
1033. 62901IL
Quoting 980. stormhank:

i cant get the joint typhoon page to load anyone else having problems


Testing...

Not working for me either.
1034. Gearsts
The cyclone's
heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of
the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,
as is the case in the ECMWF solution. A stronger system, like the
one that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude.
1035. Gearsts
Quoting 1029. MahFL:

Danny is no longer naked, shear is virtually non existent :


link to that image or loop?
1036. ricderr
steve gregory has an excellent blog about danny
Wonder if we'll see that "I" storm before the season shuts completely down.Last interesting one was Isaac in 2012 but a year later Ingrid managed to somehow get retired.
Quoting 1014. pablosyn:

The 8th category 5 of the year:

Super Typhoon Atsani.


Wow .... this is the reason. It don't have to hit nothin' .... just spin and be beautiful ....
1039. ncstorm
Quoting 1031. scottsvb:



No that's well east of the bahamas


I say heading towards the bahamas if you track the coordinates..
1040. ncstorm
72 hours
Quoting 1020. tiggeriffic:

TEDDY!!!! I didn't think I would be on here this year for a cane watch...here we go again lol

Tigger!!! I'm glad to see you here!
1042. Gearsts
Quoting 1038. BahaHurican:

Wow .... this is the reason. It don't have to hit nothin' .... just spin and be beautiful ....
image save
1043. MahFL
Quoting 1035. Gearsts:

link to that image or loop?


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
Quoting 1033. 62901IL:



Testing...

Not working for me either.
yeah seems its off line or something

Hmm, we can't reach this page.

Try this
•Make sure you’ve got the right URL: http://www.usno.navy.mil
Quoting 1039. ncstorm:



I say heading towards the bahamas if you track the coordinates..


If I did that,, it would be towards the carolinas. The final Cords are about Nassau line and San Juan heading parelle or NW towards NC... it don't matter though TBH
The Atlantic is making that face to us again.

Quoting 1029. MahFL:

Danny is no longer naked, shear is virtually non existent :


We should see some reasonably good progress today. A hurricane tomorrow seems quite plausible ....
1048. Relix
Danny handling that dry air like a champ. Awesome.
Quoting 1046. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The Atlantic is making that face to us again.


I don't see a deep through any where in the frame.Since I know that my weather usually affects the outcome of a hurricanes track local met said that our "cool spells" will be brief and the troughs will not be digging as far south like the other ones did last year.
1050. Gearsts
Quoting 1048. Relix:

Danny handling that dry air like a champ. Awesome.
??
Remember this season subtropical sst will be warmer than average, so if atmospheric conditions are favorable, Danny could continue strengthening in this region, just something to think about down the road, but nothing to take too serious yet.
Quoting 1039. ncstorm:



I say heading towards the bahamas if you track the coordinates..
Actually not so much .... 23 N is just east of the Central Bahamas, and 65W is 7 - 10 degrees east of them. The archipelago's easternmost points are around 70W, but further south.
Seems more like this track is paralleling The Bahamas. [just from the forecast points]
1053. Relix
Quoting 1050. Gearsts:

??


It's managing quite well, I don't understand the downcasting. Its mixing out that air dry with an intact core, gotta give him props for that.
Quoting 888. wunderkidcayman:



If Danny takes a more N route it will meet shear dry air and SAL not to mention lower SST




I'm referring to the next few days, not immediately. The Antilles/Bahamas route, not towards the Caribbean/Gulf.
Quoting 1054. Climate175:


If GFS shows a ridge building back in on the east coast wouldn't that shunt the storm more westward? I didn;t see any strong troughs on the model frame.Oh well nothing can be trusted that far out in advance anyway.
Quoting 1056. washingtonian115:

If GFS shows a ridge building back in on the east coast wouldn't that shunt the storm more westward? I didn;t see any strong troughs on the model frame.Oh well nothing can be trusted that far out in advance anyway.
I was confused as well, but this 10 days away, so plenty will change.
What up Baha????? yeah...considering I am an east coaster, I figured it was time to pop in and take a peek at ole danny boy....
Quoting 917. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm I've noticed Danny has just did a tiny jog NW or wobble NW it's looks to have returned back to W movement I guess the wobble was just the LLCOC tightening up and just gave a wobble that all
There's even a name for the wobbles that we are seeing ...

It's beginning to look like Danny will have absorbed the convection that's trailing it by this evening, and that will likely contribute to a more precipitous deepening in the overnight hours ...

Anybody can tell right off the tops of their heads which time zone Danny is currently traversing?
The NHC track will change a lot as well between now and Sunday. Right now people in the Lesser Antilles should not be off guard, since the storm is still forecast to head in their direction as a Hurricane.
1061. Relix
Quoting 1059. BahaHurican:

There's even a name for the wobbles that we are seeing ...

It's beginning to look like Danny will have absorbed the convection that's trailing it by this evening, and that will likely contribute to a more precipitous deepening in the overnight hours ...

Anybody can tell right off the tops of their heads which time zone Danny is currently transversing?


Well it must be like 3PM or 4PM where its hanging out right now
HWRF 12Z LOL
1063. Gearsts
Quoting 1053. Relix:



It's managing quite well, I don't understand the downcasting. Its mixing out that air dry with an intact core, gotta give him props for that.
Oh sure i agree. We have 6 to 8 days of model runs to watch and track Danny here on the islands.
Very nice burst right over the center, but it sure is tiny. I'm not paying any attention to any model beyond 3-4 days. I want to have decent confidence that the system will even be alive by day 5, and right now I don't. What happens from there, we can determine when/if we get there.

Long range shows Temperatures returning back to the 90's the last few days for August all the way into early September.So a trough will swing by however it won't be that deep and a ridge will be build back.I'm not buying the hook out to sea just yet.
1066. Gearsts
Quoting 1062. CaribBoy:

HWRF 12Z LOL
1000mb 06z
12Z GFS I'm still not buyin GFS at all
according to my globe, it is approximately 4 hours past EST
Fragile situation on the GFS. Just enough weakness to recurve Danny. We'll have a better idea of what to expect in about 5 days LOL, so until then patience is key. :)
Danny looks better than he did when I woke up this morning.
Quoting 1058. tiggeriffic:

What up Baha????? yeah...considering I am an east coaster, I figured it was time to pop in and take a peek at ole danny boy....

Everything cool, as they say .... so far so good with Danny ... though none of the long-range forecasts is making me particularly comfy ... even this latest has enough of the fantasy feel to it to make me think we may end up with a Betsy or Andrew or Jeanne or 1947 Fort Lauderdale type hook across the Bahamas from about 65 W. Still a whole lot of wait and see with this, though ....
Quoting 1067. wunderkidcayman:

12Z GFS I'm still not buyin GFS at all

How Come?
Quoting 1066. Gearsts:

1000mb 06z



Here is why I'm laughting :) But who knows...

Quoting 1065. washingtonian115:

Long range shows Temperatures returning back to the 90's the last few days for August all the way into early September.So a trough will swing by however it won't be that deep and a ridge will be build back.I'm not buying the hook out to sea just yet.
Late August-Early September 90 degree temperatures should mean we should have ridging, so that pattern would not favor out to sea. If the end of August to early September featured cooler temps then maybe but still gotta watch carefully.
Quoting 1061. Relix:



Well it must be like 3PM or 4PM where its hanging out right now
So maybe 2 or 3 hours ahead of us ... that means we should start to see some diurnal reaction about 6 or 7 p.m. our time... Does PR keep standard time or Daylight Savings Time during the summer?
1076. Gearsts
Quoting 1067. wunderkidcayman:

12Z GFS I'm still not buyin GFS at all
GFS is too strong with Danny i think, so like the NHC said the track should be south but just north of the euro.
Any way in terms of the E Coast system

I expect a broad weak low today and sits maybe meander with a slow drift N until about Friday maybe morning/midday then broad low then shoots N and out of the area as this happen I expect the Atlantic ridge to rebuild and push on S and W Friday onwards
IMO

Also no real tropical or sub tropical development with this system
1078. MahFL
Quoting 1061. Relix:



Well it must be like 3PM or 4PM where its hanging out right now


UT-3, so it's 3:15 pm there.
Quoting 1071. BahaHurican:

Everything cool, as they say .... so far so good with Danny ... though none of the long-range forecasts is making me particularly comfy ... even this latest has enough of the fantasy feel to it to make me think we may end up with a Betsy or Andrew or Jeanne or 1947 Fort Lauderdale type hook across the Bahamas from about 65 W. Still a whole lot of wait and see with this, though ....


You got that right BATMAN lol....seems as tho if he were to drive on in, it would be approximately Labor Day weekend....pretty fitting for a storm to hit don't you think? And BTW...the hubby's name is Danny...so I am really watching this one lol
I really dont think Danny will recurve, what do you all think?
Quoting 1034. Gearsts:

The cyclone's
heading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of
the depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,
as is the case in the ECMWF solution. A stronger system, like the
one that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude.

Danny is gaining more latitude right now, and it will gain more
1082. IDTH
I think i'm done with the HWRF after these past 3 runs, doubtful we'll have this at 18Z
Quoting 1059. BahaHurican:

There's even a name for the wobbles that we are seeing ...

It's beginning to look like Danny will have absorbed the convection that's trailing it by this evening, and that will likely contribute to a more precipitous deepening in the overnight hours ...

Anybody can tell right off the tops of their heads which time zone Danny is currently traversing?



Quoting 1077. wunderkidcayman:

Any way in terms of the E Coast system

I expect a broad weak low today and sits maybe meander with a slow drift N until about Friday maybe morning/midday then broad low then shoots N and out of the area as this happen I expect the Atlantic ridge to rebuild and push on S and W Friday onwards
IMO
If that happens, then florida will be in the way possibly
CPC even shows warm temps late August into early September. It does look like early September might start off hot, like I kind of expected in my mind.
Quoting 1080. nygiants:

I really dont think Danny will recurve, what do you all think?
its gonna do whatever it wants question is what
HWRF is way off in structure right now, can't trust this thing anymore.
1088. ncstorm
12z NAVGEM

Heading in the general direction that's not east..


168 hours
HWRF pretty insistent on turning Danny into quite the potent hurricane. Gonna need a few more convective bursts than what we're seeing at the moment if it expects to meet that quota. On the bright side, if it were to intensify at that rate, it'll probably miss any landmasses.
Quoting 1079. tiggeriffic:



You got that right BATMAN lol....seems as tho if he were to drive on in, it would be approximately Labor Day weekend....pretty fitting for a storm to hit don't you think? And BTW...the hubby's name is Danny...so I am really watching this one lol

LOL.... seems you might have a much better idea what to expect of Danny than the rest of us .... lol ...

I'm still hoping on a rainmaker for the NE Caribbean and a fizzle or rip up for Danny [the TC, that is... :o) ] ... but as has been said, we do still have a few days to see what happens before we start to PANIC!!!! lol ....
11:00 am CIMMS shear tendency update; Danny has a nice window of opportunity over the next 24-48 to try to get a groove on before encountering some higher sheer on approach to the Antilles;

Quoting 1081. juracanpr1:


Danny is gaining more latitude right now, and it will gain more


if the ridge sets up as some models are showing I think it could inter the gulf .. if and this is a big IF .. sheer doesn't destroy it before it gets there !!
1093. JRRP
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 39 minHace 39 minutos Ver traducción
IMost models have been biased too far north and east of reality according to track biases for #Danny
Quoting 1087. TeleConnectSnow:

HWRF is way off in structure right now, can't trust this thing anymore.
Structure is pretty much at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to things we should be analyzing from a hurricane model lol. But to your point, structure is pretty unpredictable. None of us expected Danny to look the way it does today.
You only need to look at the EURO and GFS out to 120hrs.
Long Range GFS actually does not take Danny out to sea, it just stalls there.
Quoting 1080. nygiants:

I really dont think Danny will recurve, what do you all think?


Too early to tell. I think the NE Caribbean is at risk. Maybe the Bahamas. After that anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas. If it survives.
The islands are going to experience Danny unfortunately. Even if it scoots north they will still have high surge and wind. Interesting scenario.

1099. beell
Quoting 1095. scottsvb:

You only need to look at the EURO and GFS out to 120hrs.


Scott! You're getting soft as you age-it used to be 72!
(j/k)
1100. MahFL
Quoting 1094. MiamiHurricanes09:

None of us expected Danny to look the way it does today.


Today is far from over, convection is re-firing over the center :

A quick Question why dont we talk about the west pac storms right now as theyre strong and rapidly channig unlike danny whos effects wont be felt for at least another day.
The COC is going to jog around in its early stages ..

but have you noticed the over all banding even to the outer limits of the water vapor in the last few hours is be coming more pronounced ..
1103. MahFL
Quoting 1101. Geoboy645:

A quick Question why dont we talk about the west pac storms right now as theyre strong and rapidly channig unlike danny whos effects wont be felt for at least another day.


Because very few of us live in the Pacific.
Quoting 1092. whitewabit:



if the ridge sets up as some models are showing I think it could inter the gulf .. if and this is a big IF .. sheer doesn't destroy it before it gets there !!


Only chance it enters the GOM is if it stays south of PR and even DR. It can still cross Cuba and head to the FL Straits and get in...but this is all 7-10 days away. A tight center that Danny has can easily get pulled by any troughs. If Danny stays weak.....or gets decoupled by shear next week...the LLC can run west and reform a few days later (for all this to happen)...but this is all a example and speculation.
1105. ncstorm
Last frame at 180 hours

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. FIX TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 14.8N 53.0W AT 22/2000Z.
B. P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY EVERY
12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z.
4. REMARKS: NOAA'S P-3 AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS
AROUND DANNY AT 21/1300Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY
.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 13.8N 151.4W AT 21/1800Z AND
NEAR 14.8N 154.0W AT 22/0600Z.
Quoting 1060. Climate175:

The NHC track will change a lot as well between now and Sunday. Right now people in the Lesser Antilles should not be off guard, since the storm is still forecast to head in their direction as a Hurricane.

I would say track will change a lot (further north) in the next 24 hours.
Quoting 1099. beell:



Scott! You're getting soft as you age-it used to be 72!
(j/k)


You're correct on both accounts...lol

Best to look up to 72hrs... and 120hrs if the EURO and GFS agree..and they are pretty close up till then....
Quoting 1101. Geoboy645:

A quick Question why dont we talk about the west pac storms right now as theyre strong and rapidly channig unlike danny whos effects wont be felt for at least another day.


because Danny is headed in the direction where most of the bloggers here on WU live while the Pacific is going away from us and won't have a chance to effect anyone here ..
All in good agreement it will track NNW-NW over time til the islands.

Quoting 1085. Climate175:

CPC even shows warm temps late August into early September. It does look like early September might start off hot, like I kind of expected in my mind.


Expected to have heat indices over 100 ahead of a cold front that will move offshore Saturday. Chance of thunderstorms every day until then, just had a sprinkle today thus far.
1112. MahFL
Quoting 1103. MahFL:



Because very few of us live in the Pacific.


Also neither of the Pacific typhoons are forecast to make landfall, they re-curve harmlessly.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.1W
AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 37W-45W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N21W TO 09N22W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE
PAST 21 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT HOWEVER...METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 115 NM E-SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF AFFECTING THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE
WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 58W-61W.
Quoting 1101. Geoboy645:

A quick Question why dont we talk about the west pac storms right now as theyre strong and rapidly channig unlike danny whos effects wont be felt for at least another day.

Most people on the blog live in the U.S., Bahamas or carribbean. This storm is in that basin, and the Atlantic has been slow. What do you want to discuss on west pac systems?
Quoting 1104. scottsvb:



Only chance it enters the GOM is if it stays south of PR and even DR. It can still cross Cuba and head to the FL Straits and get in...but this is all 7-10 days away. A tight center that Danny has can easily get pulled by any troughs. If Danny stays weak.....or gets decoupled by shear next week...the LLC can run west and reform a few days later (for all this to happen)...but this is all a example and speculation.


Hmm you said the same thing I did ..
AST 4 hours off GMT

Y'all like to talk about Avila as a conservative forecaster [which btw I disagree with, having seen him make some seriously gung ho calls in the past] but the real conservatives are Pasch and Kimberlain. Look at this:

There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification
during the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of
dry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone
to the north. Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles
in 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the
strength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will
ultimately affect Danny's intensity. The ECMWF shows upper-level
westerlies and even drier air associated with this feature holding
sway over the Caribbean region, while the GFS shows a relaxation
of the shear. The statistical guidance, strongly dependent on the
GFS forecast fields, continues to indicate a higher intensity, yet
the dynamical models suggest less overall intensification and even
weakening late in the forecast period. The GFS-based guidance seems
less likely relative to the other model solutions, especially given
the strength and persistence of the mid-oceanic trough thus far this
season. The intensity forecast is therefore reduced throughout
the forecast period but especially at later times and is close to or
just above the multi-model consensus ICON.


Plus they slashed the peak wind speed by 15 mph ....
Quoting 1093. JRRP:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 39 minHace 39 minutos Ver traducción
IMost models have been biased too far north and east of reality according to track biases for #Danny


Yes
I definitely think the models running on Danny are biased too far N and E

Quoting 1101. Geoboy645:

A quick Question why dont we talk about the west pac storms right now as theyre strong and rapidly channig unlike danny whos effects wont be felt for at least another day.
There is this saying that people like to pay attention to what is in their own back yard.Even though we do not know where Danny will finally end up or at what intensity it has a higher chance affecting most of the bloggers here than the two typhoons out in the West pacific.


AFRICAN COAST showing a low

Quoting 1112. MahFL:



Also neither of the Pacific typhoons are forecast to make landfall, they re-curve harmlessly.
Not so sure about that with Goni ... it gets so close to Taiwan and seems unlikely to miss all of Japan ...
1123. PCCfan
Quoting 1119. washingtonian115:

There is this saying that people like to pay attention to what is in their own back yard.Even though we do not know where Danny will finally end up or at what intensity it has a higher chance affecting most of the bloggers here than the two typhoons out in the West pacific.
ok makes sense but still from a meteorlogical stand point goni and atsani are just slightly a bit of more intrest to me and plus i live in wisconsin so danny most likely wont effect me that much
Danny is looking rather ill at the moment. Seems to be struggling to maintain itself. Would not be at all surprised to see this system fall apart and just be an open wave in the next 48-hours.
The slow movement of Danny will really help him in the short term as he tries to wrap up it circulation its pointless focusing on the models beyond the islands.
1127. Gearsts
Quoting 1093. JRRP:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 39 minHace 39 minutos Ver traducción
IMost models have been biased too far north and east of reality according to track biases for #Danny
So from what he's saying, i should expect tropical storm Danny to park on top of my house for 24hours?
Quoting 1125. HurriHistory:

Danny is looking rather ill at the moment. Seems to be struggling to maintain itself. Would not be at all surprised to see this system fall apart and just be an open wave in the next 48-hours.
i think you are going to be right
I think Danny will enter the Caribbean hitting the E Caribean Islands somewhere near about 15N IMO
1131. Relix
Quoting 1118. wunderkidcayman:



Yes
I definitely think the models running on Danny are biased too far N and E




Yeah it'd be great if they moved SW, probably under Hispaniola and aiming at the south of Cuba all the way into the GOM.

Wait....
Doesn't look like much of anything, but at least some convection has developed over the circulation. Now it needs to develop convection...everywhere else.

Danny looks just awful. R.I.P.
Danny is fine...going through normal open-ocean affects of dry air and higher pressure is the midlevels. He should slowly strengthen tonight and Thursday with fluctuations. In a few days, shear might interfear with Danny.
Quoting 1101. Geoboy645:

A quick Question why dont we talk about the west pac storms right now as theyre strong and rapidly channig unlike danny whos effects wont be felt for at least another day.
People have been posting imagery and updates all along ... you can always post something about the systems there to maybe spark some additional discussion.

I will also add that a lot of the people here are less interested in discussing storms that have easily delineated paths which therefore require less "discussion" [read "argument"]. If we all agree that Atsani is a super-duper looking Cat 5 and it's not going to hit anything before it recurves .... well ... what else is there to talk about?

What I mean is, it's not JUST a matter of which basin it's in.
12z HWRF depicting weakening beyond the 4 day mark. Looks to be dealing with some southerly upper-level winds per the radar signature.
1137. JRRP
Quoting 1127. Gearsts:

So from what he's saying, i should expect tropical storm Danny to park on top of my house for 24hours?

I think yes.. lol
esto me recuerda a un capitulo de los simpsons
Quoting 1134. scottsvb:

Danny is fine...going through normal open-ocean affects of dry air and higher pressure is the midlevels. He should slowly strengthen tonight and Thursday with fluctuations. In a few days, shear might interfear with Danny.

I have to disagree. Too many negative factors waiting down the line for Danny to have to fight off. Yes of course its possible he can come back but I think the odds are against it.
Quoting 1138. HurriHistory:


I have to disagree. Too many negative factors waiting down the line for Danny to have to fight off. Yes of course its possible he can come back but I think the odds are against it.


So you're saying he will be downgraded to a TD or less in the next few days or so?
Quoting 1136. MiamiHurricanes09:

12z HWRF depicting weakening beyond the 4 day mark. Looks to be dealing with some southerly upper-level winds per the radar signature.
HRWF has been saying that very consistently almost from the beginning. I'll be very interested to see whether Danny looks the way the HRWF's been saying it will look around this time tomorrow...
Quoting 1119. washingtonian115:

There is this saying that people like to pay attention to what is in their own back yard.Even though we do not know where Danny will finally end up or at what intensity it has a higher chance affecting most of the bloggers here than the two typhoons out in the West pacific.

Most of us can do no more than agree with you Washy on that point, plus the pacific storms although impressive are almost textbook studies now.
Having said that there are quite a lot of islands out there which will be feeling the effects of these storms and hopefully will be sufficiently prepared for them so as not to sustain casualties.
Quoting 1137. JRRP:


I think yes.. lol
esto me recuerda a un capitulo de los simpsons
Un capitulo de los Simpsons,que gracioso.Que lindo mama.
Quoting 1138. HurriHistory:


I have to disagree. Too many negative factors waiting down the line for Danny to have to fight off. Yes of course its possible he can come back but I think the odds are against it.
I genuinely expect some strengthening tonight. Whether it makes hurricane.... well, I don't know about that. But a jump to 65 mph is not out of the question. IMO the structure is still there, and as long as the shear stays low for the next 24 Danny has ample opportunity to rebuild the convection.
1145. Grothar
Quoting 1005. SecretStormNerd:

I have a question. At the point where the plots end, does this mean the storm is no more? Or is this a 5 day type deal? TIA.




Just a few day projection where they expect it to be based on the current data. They usually change on each run, so we just like to play "Guess where" on here. It will a few more days before the models come closer together.
1146. hydrus


Atsani .



Goni is a dangerous typhoon close to land..Prayers to them.


Danny will degenerate soon (IMO). HWRF model failed. A future invest perhaps could alleviate the drought conditions at the eastern Caribbean islands. gain, bye Danny.
12z NAVGEM.
Quoting 1120. hurricanes2018:



AFRICAN COAST showing a low


And the North Atlantic shows a HIGH
1151. 62901IL
Quoting 1082. IDTH:

I think i'm done with the HWRF after these past 3 runs, doubtful we'll have this at 18Z



HWRF, I declare you...The Outliar!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D :D
Quoting 1008. pablosyn:



Yes. Ivan and Joan on October 1997


I'm having trouble finding this same info that you posted. Joan was in an even numbered year and retired after the 1988 season. I'm not finding a time when there was both an Ivan and Joan at the same time. Ivan was also not on that same rotation. Ivan would have been in 1990, not 1988.
1153. 62901IL
Quoting 1147. juracanpr1:

Danny will degenerate soon (IMO). HWRF model failed. A future invest perhaps could alleviate the drought conditions at the eastern Caribbean islands. gain, bye Danny.


Don't give up yet!
1154. Grothar
NHC 2 PM

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.1W
AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 37W-45W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
1155. ncstorm
12z GFDL

126 hours



Quoting 1138. HurriHistory:


I have to disagree. Too many negative factors waiting down the line for Danny to have to fight off. Yes of course its possible he can come back but I think the odds are against it.


The only negative factor in the next few days is dry air, which it'll mix out like it is currently doing. Low shear, SSTs of 28C and a good low-level structure should allow slow but gradual strengthening over the next few days. But once it detaches from the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough will be the real test for the storm. For now it seems to be recovering with convection covering the center of the system as it gets closer to Dmin. I think it'll start firing more convection/strengthening again tonight (in about 4-5 hours).
Quoting 1152. NUChickens:



I'm having trouble finding this same info that you posted. Joan was in an even numbered year and retired after the 1988 season. I'm not finding a time when there was both an Ivan and Joan at the same time.


He meant in the West Pacific Ocean Basin...
I'm sure that if by tonight Danny develops some convection and a few bands that the blog will be crowning it the next Andrew.
Nice cell came thru downtown Houston, lightning loud thunder and sun and blue sky was out immediately after. RAIN in SE TX!

Now back to the tropics...
Quoting 1155. ncstorm:

12z GFDL

126 hours




doom!!!
1161. 62901IL
Quoting 1158. MiamiHurricanes09:

I'm sure that if by tonight Danny develops some convection and a few bands that the blog will be crowning it the next Andrew.


Let's not get too overconfident..........
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system could form in the vicinity of Bermuda and over the western
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for some
tropical or subtropical development of this system over the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


wow 40%
I think it might be time for a poll on Danny, any takers??
Quoting 1157. Stormlover16:



He meant in the West Pacific Ocean Basin...


Thank you. I see that now! :)
Quoting 1146. hydrus:



Atsani .



Goni is a dangerous typhoon close to land..Prayers to them.




Following that bottom chart with the almost right angled curve on it, there are a lot of islands in the typhoons path.
The end result will probably be a very much weakened storm saturating Japan next week.
As we are often very concerned about the Caribbean islands and hurricane strikes, there is exactly the same problems with the seas around Taiwan and Japan.
Hopefully they have the infrastructure in place to stay safe.
Quoting 1154. Grothar:

NHC 2 PM

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.1W
AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 37W-45W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

That statement is basically the repetition of that given at 11:00. Things have changed
1167. Patrap
The convective burst continues near the CoC.

1168. 62901IL
Quoting 1163. JNFlori30A:

I think it might be time for a poll on Danny, any takers??


I think he will peak at 75
1169. Patrap
1170. hydrus
Quoting 1167. Patrap:

The convective burst continues near the CoC.




Thank goodness Danny put on a banana hammock to hide his shame, his floater had become uncomfortable to view.
1172. PCCfan


Five days.
12z ECMWF struggling with initialization.

24 hrs.
1175. ncstorm
12z UKMET shows rain for much of the SE in the next 72 hours









Wow NHC is giving Bermuda system 0/40%

I still say low/low and nothing much to come out of it as it move N
1177. Patrap



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system could form in the vicinity of Bermuda and over the western
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for some
tropical or subtropical development of this system over the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percen

maybe the next invest97L COMING by friday up to 40%
We are currently in the "Danny is degenerating stage" of the blog. My prediction is that in 3 hours, we'll be in the "Danny is undergoing rapid intensification" stage of the blog.
Quoting 1166. juracanpr1:


That statement is basically the repetition of that given at 11:00. Things have changed


Things are going as forecast, dry air mixed into the circulation inhibiting strengthening, but it looks like Danny has mixed it out now and it starting to fire convection over the center again.
1182. JRRP
ITCZ
Atlantic Hurricane season, same ole song and dance... Storms struggle to survive, OTS on a regular bases year after year, high shear, dry air, dust and on and on. Beginning to think in about 5 to 10 years, we will no longer have a hurricane season
Quoting 1163. JNFlori30A:

I think it might be time for a poll on Danny, any takers??

reported. ; )

For asking if we wanted to take Danny's poll.

I kid, I kid. I needed some humor between model proliferation and RIP comments.
1185. IDTH
If Danny had more convection we may have been talking about a Rapidly intensifying storm, the COC is very tight.
Quoting 1167. Patrap:

The convective burst continues near the CoC.


Looks like that easterly cluster of clouds is being consolidated bit by bit ...
1187. IDTH
Quoting 1180. pipelines:

We are currently in the "Danny is degenerating stage" of the blog. My prediction is that in 3 hours, we'll be in the "Danny is undergoing rapid intensification" stage of the blog.

That's the blog for ya!
Quoting 1182. JRRP:

ITCZ





maybe help the next low coming off the coast of AFRICAN soon
Quoting 1182. JRRP:

ITCZ

Wonder if we'll hear from pottery today about the Twave induced rain they seem to be getting in T&T ....
Quoting 1183. mcluvincane:

Atlantic Hurricane season, same ole song and dance... Storms struggle to survive, OTS on a regular bases year after year, high shear, dry air, dust and on and on. Beginning to think in about 5 to 10 years, we will no longer have a hurricane season

If there was anything else going on in the Atlantic of any significance, then Danny would probably not even be getting a mention other than as a rain bringer to the Caribbean islands.
1191. nash36
Quoting 1160. hurricanes2018:

doom!!!


The GFDL has been stuck in silly season for a while now.
1192. Grothar
Quoting 1162. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system could form in the vicinity of Bermuda and over the western
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for some
tropical or subtropical development of this system over the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent


wow 40%


Why wow?
after danny the mdr looks dry. doubt the ghost storms materialize
Atsani has the most glorious eye I've seen in ages... it's like it's piercing your soul.

Looks like Danny has gotten his second wind... thankfully the environment isn't hostile or he would end up like Dorian or Don, lots of D names getting shafted.
1195. ncstorm
00z UKMET Ensembles

Quoting 1179. weaverwxman:

My wife ask me this morning if Danny was going to affect us? I live in South Fla., I told her probably not. She said I was not much of a meteorologist, to which i then got up from the couch went to the closet to get my fortune telling outfit on. In full gear with a straight face I told her it would probably be another andrew type situation but it is about ten days away from a US landfall. She immediately started packing and has made a reservation in Memphis Tenn. for the 29 and 30 of August. I will not go with her, I don't want to miss anything. LOL silly Troll.


Get a second ticket and bug out if you really expect another Andrew. If I lived in FL I would consider this for anything above a cat 1 (I went through Cat 1 Kate in TLH 1985 but localized microbursts and tornadoes produced
Cat 3 damage.. fortunately not my apartment)
Quoting 1190. PlazaRed:


If there was anything else going on in the Atlantic of any significance, then Danny would probably not even be getting a mention other than as a rain bringer to the Caribbean islands.


Well yea, but the Atlantic almost never has produced anything of real significance for the last 3 seasons.
Quoting 1183. mcluvincane:

Atlantic Hurricane season, same ole song and dance... Storms struggle to survive, OTS on a regular bases year after year, high shear, dry air, dust and on and on. Beginning to think in about 5 to 10 years, we will no longer have a hurricane season
Calm down dude.Take a break from the blog for a while.
Quoting 1152. NUChickens:



I'm having trouble finding this same info that you posted. Joan was in an even numbered year and retired after the 1988 season. I'm not finding a time when there was both an Ivan and Joan at the same time. Ivan was also not on that same rotation. Ivan would have been in 1990, not 1988.


Ivan was retired as part of the 2004 season, so you're right. Ivan couldn't have been in an odd-number season if names are rotated every six years.
Quoting 1192. Grothar:



Why wow?


It was pretty cool to see the animation of the Atlantic satellite image on the Tropics page... you can legitimately see the centre of a massive vortex swirling and sucking moisture in rather slowly.
Quoting 1166. juracanpr1:


That statement is basically the repetition of that given at 11:00. Things have changed


They also don't always update on the 3 hr mark...new stuff comes out every 6 hours...EST is 5 am and pm and 11 am and pm....may times the inbetween stuff stays the same unless it is very close to making landfall somewhere and/or the hurricane hunters are in the middle of it
Quoting 1190. PlazaRed:


If there was anything else going on in the Atlantic of any significance, then Danny would probably not even be getting a mention other than as a rain bringer to the Caribbean islands.


No, Danny is a real threat to the islands and possibly U.S. a long way out. It is definitely worth tracking
(and no I refuse to attach gender to a storm]
Quoting 1169. Patrap:




When I posted this morning I raised the possibility that Danny might be like a handful of systems we have seen over the years that are "contrarian", namely they weaken at night and blow up during the day.

Looks like another round of deep convection could be underway.


weaking no more red color right now
1206. help4u
Out to sea for Danny now wait. for next year

Wow! page 13! Haven't seen a page 13 in 24 hours in quite a while .... lol ...
Quoting 1197. CybrTeddy:



Well yea, but the Atlantic almost never has produced anything of real significance for the last 3 seasons.


Well Fay and especially Gonzalo were pretty wicked storms last season... for two hurricanes to make landfall on Bermuda less than a week apart is an extremely rare occurrence. Gonzalo even managed to be the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic since Igor.

I think if anyone says that the Atlantic has never produced anything of significance in (insert length of time here), then it should have an asterisk for the end, and then that asterisk should specify 'for the U.S.'.
Quoting 1206. help4u:

Out to sea for Danny now wait. for next year


i think danny is going to weaking soon anyhow
Thunder coming from my south

Quoting 1203. kmanislander:



When I posted this morning I raised the possibility that Danny might be like a handful of systems we have seen over the years that are "contrarian", namely they weaken at night and blow up during the day.

Looks like another round of deep convection could be underway.
Well, it is going for 5 p.m. out there .... heading towards the sweet time ....
1212. txjac
Quoting 1159. RitaEvac:

Nice cell came thru downtown Houston, lightning loud thunder and sun and blue sky was out immediately after. RAIN in SE TX!

Now back to the tropics...


Totally missing me at my office. Have seen lots of lightening, hearing the thunder ...and then it all slides right by.
Kind of depressing ...I want some rain
1213. JRRP
1214. Patrap
Quoting 1203. kmanislander:



When I posted this morning I raised the possibility that Danny might be like a handful of systems we have seen over the years that are "contrarian", namely they weaken at night and blow up during the day.

Looks like another round of deep convection could be underway.



When we get the new frame Ill expect the bloom to have eaxpanded some more Kman, as that core begins to build that warm column higher. Its gonna take some time but as you mention, the quirky ones dont always follow da script.




Wind Map time.
Click on the links to open in another tab.

Danny First today now.

Link

Now Goni 24 hours from Now!

Link

Sort of puts things into perspective.
Euro keeping Danny pretty weak over the next 3 days. Overall, a crappy day for Danny thus far lol.
1217. VR46L
The Wpac Twins

 photo Screenshot 2015-08-19 at 7.09.46 PM_zpsvvp9xxik.png
Quoting 1208. LostTomorrows:



Well Fay and especially Gonzalo were pretty wicked storms last season... for two hurricanes to make landfall on Bermuda less than a week apart is an extremely rare occurrence. Gonzalo even managed to be the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic since Igor.

I think if anyone says that the Atlantic has never produced anything of significance in (insert length of time here), then it should have an asterisk for the end, and then that asterisk should specify 'for the U.S.'.


Gonzo was a beaut, a bit asymmetrical but nevertheless
Convection currently slowly on the increase. Wave from the east seems to have rushed in, and is helping. 5Pm And 11pm should be interesting.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, aside from Danny:

1. A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system could form in the vicinity of Bermuda and over the western
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for some
tropical or subtropical development of this system over the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
1221. Patrap
Wow, this GOM system that has moved in is like a depression actually..rain, wind, no thunder, and from the Sw.

Thats un nerving as all get out.



Quoting 1217. VR46L:

The Wpac Twins

 photo Screenshot 2015-08-19 at 7.09.46 PM_zpsvvp9xxik.png


almost looks like VanGohs starry night doesn't it
1224. Patrap
Was it the HRWF that show the oval shaped center we saw in the actual storm yesterday?, I wanna see what its forecasting .
Quoting 1203. kmanislander:



When I posted this morning I raised the possibility that Danny might be like a handful of systems we have seen over the years that are "contrarian", namely they weaken at night and blow up during the day.

Looks like another round of deep convection could be underway.


Well, sinking air sinks more vigorously, the colder it gets.
1226. VR46L
Quoting 1222. tiggeriffic:



almost looks like VanGohs starry night doesn't it



I was trying to work out what it was , that it reminded me of !

Thanks!!!
Quoting 1209. hurricanes2018:

i think danny is going to weaking soon anyhow


The convection of Danny did weaken this morning and the satellite presentation looked ragged if you focussed on the AVN imagery alone. However, the low level structure remained very much intact and the circulation quite robust. For those reasons it is able to refire the convection we are seeing now.

Never write off a tropical cyclone just because convection waxes and wanes. Look deeper at the fundamentals of the overall structure.
Danny may yet succumb to the less than ideal conditions out there but I suspect it is far from done for the time being and could bounce back strongly over the next 6 to 12 hours.
Quoting 1183. mcluvincane:

Atlantic Hurricane season, same ole song and dance... Storms struggle to survive, OTS on a regular bases year after year, high shear, dry air, dust and on and on. Beginning to think in about 5 to 10 years, we will no longer have a hurricane season
well we are in an El nino season and should not be surprised if no storms survive .
Quoting 1178. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

A broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is
producing an elongated area of cloudiness and showers to the
southeast through southwest of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure
system could form in the vicinity of Bermuda and over the western
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for some
tropical or subtropical development of this system over the weekend
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percen

maybe the next invest97L COMING by friday up to 40%


Meh I don't anything will happen with that just a broad low that plays with Bermuda for a day or two then runs off to the N no tropical or sub tropical development
Quoting 1215. PlazaRed:

Wind Map time.
Click on the links to open in another tab.

Danny First today now.

Link

Now Goni 24 hours from Now!

Link

Sort of puts things into perspective.
This is really going to be a super addition to our toolbox as Danny gets closer to the islands, Plaza ... Thanks for reminding us it's there. And I agree - that imagery of Goni and Atsani is ... stupendous...
Quoting 1199. win1gamegiantsplease:



Ivan was retired as part of the 2004 season, so you're right. Ivan couldn't have been in an odd-number season if names are rotated every six years.
He is talking about the west Pacific guys not the atlantic
1232. Patrap
The 1745 frame shows the convection continuing to build near the coc..

Also note the convective spiral bands in the Neast Quad.

I see the blog being a little pathetic today with Danny
Quoting 1228. lurkersince2008:

well we are in an El nino season and should not be surprised if no storms survive .


El Nino creates higher shear. Sinking air has been the problem, and it looks as if it still is.
1235. 900MB
Quoting 1227. kmanislander:



The convection of Danny did weaken this morning and the satellite presentation looked ragged if you focussed on the AVN imagery alone. However, the low level structure remained very much intact and the circulation quite robust. For those reasons it is able to refire the convection we are seeing now.

Never write off a tropical cyclone just because convection waxes and wanes. Look deeper at the fundamentals of the overall structure.
Danny may yet succumb to the less than ideal conditions out there but I suspect it is far from done for the time being and could bounce back strongly over the next 6 to 12 hours.


One thing it is not fighting is shear, and shear is a killer!
Quoting 1216. MiamiHurricanes09:

Euro keeping Danny pretty weak over the next 3 days. Overall, a crappy day for Danny thus far lol.


No kidding. Doesn't start it off pretty accurately either, showing a 1010mb one closed isobar low at 00 hours. Strikes me as suspect.
1237. Patrap
As Kman said the inner core structure is well formed as seen in the MW Image from 9 hrs ago.

The next MW image will show the improvement on this .

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1239. ncstorm


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago

With #Danny so organized at the surface, wouldn't be surprised to see convective flareup next 6-12 hours, but ECMWF suggests no sudden moves
Quoting 1217. VR46L:

The Wpac Twins

 photo Screenshot 2015-08-19 at 7.09.46 PM_zpsvvp9xxik.png

Amazing the COL point just below the centre of the distance between the 2 typhoons, virtually zero wind speed.
Very well shown in this image.
Quoting 1235. 900MB:



One thing it is not fighting is shear, and shear is a killer!


Fortunately for Danny shear has been falling ahead of its path as it has progressed to the West but 20 knots lies just North of the system and not far to the W and WNW shear values are higher than that. Shear must continue to relax for it to survive IMO.
Quoting 1206. help4u:

Out to sea for Danny now wait. for next year



What Washi said.....
Quoting 1158. MiamiHurricanes09:

I'm sure that if by tonight Danny develops some convection and a few bands that the blog will be crowning it the next Andrew.

Lol the blog wax and wane more than any storm I every seen. The key thing is Danny is moving slowly so its not out racing the convective canopy. So there will be alot of headaches and excitment. This will take time and patience.
Thought yesterday Danny was well on the way to reach hurricane status by this evening-no way Josie- still think he will get his act together at some point down the road
Latest GFS has Danny doing a "loop d loop" at the end. Kinda like Jeanne, 2004. That one came into bite central FL. pretty hard.
Quoting 1175. ncstorm:

12z UKMET shows rain for much of the SE in the next 72 hour


Good grief. My backyard is already a swamp.