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Tropical Depression Forms in the North Atlantic

By: Bob Henson 4:46 PM GMT on August 18, 2015

The fourth tropical depression of 2015 has developed in the central tropical Atlantic, and it could become the year’s first Atlantic hurricane by later this week. Advisories on TD 4 were initiated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 11:00 am EDT Tuesday. The depression was located near 10.6°N, 36.5°W, moving west at about 13 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 35 mph, just below tropical-storm strength (40 mph). TD 4 is expected to become Tropical Storm Danny, the season’s fourth named system, by later tonight, according to the NHC. Interestingly, this is the first named system of the 2015 Atlantic season to begin its official life as a tropical depression. Ana began as a subtropical storm, while Bill and Claudette were tracked as tropical storms by NHC from the outset.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of a gradually organizing TD 4, collected by the GOES-East floater satellite at 1545 GMT (11:45 am EDT) Tuesday. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. GOES-East floater visible image of TD 4 at 1545 GMT (11:45 am EDT) Tuesday. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA.


The outlook for TD 4
As the first Cape Verde depression of the year, TD 4 formed well east of the Caribbean, where El Niño has been producing record amounts of vertical wind shear this summer. Even though the Atlantic tropics have been largely suppressed, as expected with this year’s strong El Niño event, TD 4 appears to be finding a window in time and space where some development is possible. Wind shear near the system is quite low, only around 5 knots (see Figure 3), and the region of stronger upper-level westerlies to the north of TD 4 could end up helping to support development by serving as an outflow channel. A massive area of Saharan dust and dry air lies just north of TD 4, but as mentioned in Tuesday’s morning’s NHC discussion, it appears that the depression is surrounded by enough moisture that it may be able to intensify even if it ingests some of this dry, dusty air.


Figure 3. Wind shear between upper and lower layers of the atmosphere across the North Atlantic. Lower values of shear, as shown above TD 4 (far right), support tropical development. Image credit: University of Wisconsin-CIMMS/NESDIS.


Figure 4. NHC’s outlook for TD 4 as of 11:00 am EDT Tuesday.

The 11 am EDT outlook from NHC brings TD 4 to hurricane strength by Friday morning and to Category 2 strength (sustained winds of 100 mph) by Saturday. This long-range forecast is consistent with the statistical models that show more skill than dynamical models at intensity prediction beyond 3 days. Of the two dynamical models most trusted for intensity forecasting, the HWRF has consistently called for TD 4 to develop into at least a strong Category 1 hurricane, while the GFDL has failed to develop TD 4, so the recently upgraded HWRF may end up closer to the mark in this case. Intensity prediction is still very challenging, so it is quite possible that TD 4 could be substantially weaker or stronger by this weekend than the current NHC forecast indicates. Over the last two years, the average 5-day error in NHC intensity projections was around 15 mph, or a bit more than half a category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is substantially better than prior years: between 2000 and 2010, intensity errors at 5 days averaged more than 25 mph.

Looking ahead
TD 4 is many days away from any threat to the Leeward Islands. Most of the dynamical track models keep TD 4 moving west to west-northwest at a modest pace. The model consensus keeps TD 4 east of 50°W longitude until this weekend, when a building ridge to the north of TD 4 should help push it at a faster rate toward the islands. By that point, the system would draw on oceanic heat content that gradually increases along its path. It is far too early to predict with any confidence how much of a threat TD 4 might pose to the United States next week. Only a small change in trajectory this far out can have big implications for the track many days from now, and it remains to be seen whether dry air and dust will keep TD 4 from maximizing its potential for development.


Figure 5. Enhanced image from the MTSAT satellite, collected from the Northwest Pacific at 1532 GMT Tuesday, showing twin typhoons Goni (left) and Atsani (right). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Twin typhoons raking the open waters of the Northwest Pacific
Two intense, well-structured typhoons are churning their way toward Asia, posing no immediate threat to large land areas. Typhoon Goni, which surged to Category 4 strength on Sunday, has weakened somewhat as a result of an eyewall replacement cycle, although Goni remains a powerful, well-structured system. Now packing top 1-minute sustained winds of 115 mph, Category 3 Goni was located near 18.7°N, 132.9°E at 1200 GMT Tuesday, moving due west at about 18 mph. Typhoon Atsani is the tortoise to Goni’s hare: though it developed more slowly than Goni, it is now more powerful, with top 1-minute sustained winds of 140 mph. At 1200 GMT Tuesday, Category 4 Atsani was located near 17.0°N, 154.8°E, moving northwest at about 9 mph.

Goni is currently traveling near waters that were left slightly cooler in the wake of Typhoon Soudelor, which peaked at Category 5 strength in this region less than two weeks ago. Over the next couple of days, Goni will move into an area of progressively richer oceanic heat content (see Figure 6 below), which should support reintensification. Strong ridges over China and over the Northwest Pacific east of Japan will help keep Goni traveling on a due-west track until late this week, when the typhoon may attempt to recurve in between ridges. The latest JTWC outlook has recurvature occuring on a northward track just east of Taiwan, which would put the island on Goni’s weaker left-hand side; that would be good news for a population still reeling from Typhoon Soudelor. Meanwhile, Atsani is already traveling over rich oceanic heat content, and with upper-level shear relatively weak, Atsani is predicted in the latest JTWC outlook to reach Category 5 strength (around 160 mph) before recurvature and weakening begin over the weekend. It appears likely that Atsani will recurve before reaching Japan, but residents should not let their guard down just yet.

Bob Henson



Figure 6. Oceanic heat content over the western Pacific as of August 17. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 480. hurricanehanna:

At what lat / long can the Hurricane Hunters fly out and start recording data ?


They typically wait till about 50W however, I think they have drones at their disposal now? which can fly greater distances.
Quoting 494. RidingTheStormOut:

Link
Lots of dangerous thunder here. Crashing around my house anyways.
I imagine it's the lightning that's dangerous, but the thunder can get mighty scary at times.
Quoting 476. bigwes6844:

I remember last night people were posting that HWRF model how huge it could become in 96 hrs. Man the HWRF mite nail it


HWRF has handle this system like a boss. I have to give it some props pretty much every other model has been wish-washy and inconsistent. Be careful of what you wish for!
Nice visible shot.

Quoting 487. bigwes6844:




Well that map is accurate, lol.
Goni is wound tightly, great structure, should tap into the super heated SST's on it's likely path. Could see 180 mph winds or higher at peak. Been geared down over SSTs it's been, but has great potential due to size, structure, and ideal conditions. Plus going over some of the hottest ocean water at depth on earth.
Hot towers near the center....It has the "acne" face type thing going on and that means a intensifying storm.
Quoting 505. hydrus:

Nice visible shot.




at the last loop of the visible shot it looks like a eye is starting too fourm
I'm starting to like the shortwave IR imagery



Got dat comma shape
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 26m26 minutes ago
#Danny is official - will likely become the season's first #hurricane by Thursday!
513. FOREX
I'm not sure which moderator banned me for the short period of time but I just wanted to apologize. I didn't mean any harm and it won't happen again. Thanks.
Quoting 459. weathermanwannabe:

Don't know if this is a function of model upgrades but I don't recall advisories making reference to mixing out dry air from the circulation this far in advance:

The only inhibiting factor appears to be dry
mid-level air located to the north and west of Danny occasionally
getting entrained into the circulation. However, the low vertical
wind shear regime that Danny will be migrating through should allow
the convective structure of the cyclone to steadily increase in
organization, which should enable the circulation to quickly mix out
any dry air intrusions.




Hiya WW,
Perhaps a bit higher confidence w factors mentioned, plus if keeps tracking at lower latitude should be able to keep tapping more moisture source from south?
Quoting 510. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm starting to like the shortwave IR imagery



Got dat comma shape


You've been reading Patrap too long.
Pretty much the perfect structure for mixing out dry air

We made it to about 506 comments since 12:46pm..not 1500 but still more than usual..
Quoting 495. sar2401:

55.2 W I believe. I don't think longitude counts as long as it's somewhere in the tropical Atlantic.


you mean latitude friend!
Quoting 516. Stormchaser2007:

Pretty much the perfect structure for mixing out dry air


Danny's inflow from the SE semicircle is definitely shielding most dry air intrusion from the NW
520. JRRP
Perfect Outflow. Convection has blossomed even more. I think a 60 mph tropical storm by 5am et.
I might make a personal blog tonight quoting everyone who said nothing could form. Anyone interested?????
HPC WPC not being shy.......


Quoting 509. Tazmanian:



at the last loop of the visible shot it looks like a eye is starting too fourm
not yet soon but not yet
Quoting 520. JRRP:


That dust is moving faster west than Danny.
Quoting 521. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Perfect Outflow. Convection has blossomed even more. I think a 60 mph tropical storm by 5am et.


Aye that ULAC is continuing to grow. For a 40 mph tropical storm, There's very impressive.
Quoting 506. ProgressivePulse:



Well that map is accurate, lol.
That is such a terrible map LOL
Quoting 521. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Perfect Outflow. Convection has blossomed even more. I think a 60 mph tropical storm by 5am et.
Good Burst, it is going through it's teenager cycle in it's life.
Quoting 522. Grothar:

I might make a personal blog tonight quoting everyone who said nothing could form. Anyone interested?????


The say, never say never!
Quoting 521. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Perfect Outflow. Convection has blossomed even more. I think a 60 mph tropical storm by 5am et.


5am???
Looking good, CDO appears to be in the works.



tropical storm danny is here
Quoting 528. Climate175:

Good Burst, it is going through it's teenager cycle in it's life.
Grew a big ol' pimple on the middle of its face lol.
Quoting 522. Grothar:

I might make a personal blog tonight quoting everyone who said nothing could form. Anyone interested?????
Yes good idea.
I don't want to be a negative Nancy, but I love how everyone is talking about how Danny will rapidly strengthen, but no one is mentioning how the dry air may hurt the system down the road, how small systems like this struggle with the wind shear in the Caribbean and north of the Islands. However, Danny is looking really good right now and will definitely reach cat. 5 status... lol
Quoting 530. bryanfromkyleTX:



5am???

What??? To soon????
If Danny continues on the current trend you all in the caribbean might have a real unwelcomed visitor on your hands later this week.You better hope that dry air comes to the rescue.

Also note that the HWRF had this exact same structure depicted on the model run yesterday night.Scary.
Let me ask you all this, whats going to play a role in steering Danny? He's looking pretty impressive tonight.
The outer bands of Danny are are growing from the moisture behind him. I have not seen as many high towers form in a long time, this early. This is classic of what the Atlantic Hurricane season was 10 years ago. I have watched storms form for many years and this one has potential.
Quoting 537. washingtonian115:

If Danny continues on the current trend you all in the caribbean might have a real unwelcomed visitor on your hands later this week.You better hope that dry air comes to the rescue.

Also note that the HWRF had this exact same structure depicted on the model run yesterday night.Scary.
I was thinking the same. I recall the W-E elongated look with the strong southerly feeder band :0
Quoting 535. Camerooski:

I don't want to be a negative Nancy, but I love how everyone is talking about how Danny will rapidly strengthen, but no one is mentioning how the dry air may hurt the system down the road, how small systems like this struggle with the wind shear in the Caribbean and north of the Islands. However, Danny is looking really good right now and will definitely reach cat. 5 status... lol

We are all aware of that. Read the 5pm discussion for Danny. They talk about how well insulated the storm is, and how it will fend off dry air.
the 12z GFS ensemble models



Quoting 538. FLMermaid:

Let me ask you all this, whats going to play a role in steering Danny? He's looking pretty impressive tonight.


High pressure to the north

Im getting a feeling about this storm...

It's organizing quite a bit faster than forecasts suggested - which means a LOT with this storm in particular. Too much intensifying before it hits the dry cloud and the dry cloud wont matter.

Combine that with the fact that the south western portion of the storm may dodge the dry cloud and you will give the storm at least one good outflow channel - combined with a secondary source of moisture in the tropical wave behind it...i dont know, just seems a bit...sketchy?
Quoting 500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its moving wnw not due west


According to NHC its W
The ECMWF 12 hour interpolation models

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued
to improve since the previous advisory, including the development of
interlocking curved convective cloud bands and the formation of an
upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern. Passive microwave images
indicate that the cyclone has a well-developed low- and mid-level
structure. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and a
UW-CIMMS ADT estimate of T2.5/35 kt. As a result, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Danny on this advisory.

The initial motion estimate remains 280/11 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The
global and regional models remain in good agreement on Danny moving
west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
located along 45W longitude for the next 72 hours. After that time,
however, there is some spread in the model guidance based on how
much and how soon the ridge builds back in to the north of Danny.
The UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the
cyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF
model strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward
and considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours. The GFS poorly
initialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than
all of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given
much less weight on this forecast cycle. The official forecast track
is faster than the consensus model TVCN due to the much slower GFS
model inducing a significant slow bias in the model consensus, and
is roughly a blend of the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS-Ensemble mean
forecast solutions.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions surrounding Danny are expected
to be favorable for slow but steady strengthening throughout the
forecast period. The only inhibiting factor appears to be dry
mid-level air located to the north and west of Danny occasionally
getting entrained into the circulation. However, the low vertical
wind shear regime that Danny will be migrating through should allow
the convective structure of the cyclone to steadily increase in
organization, which should enable the circulation to quickly mix out
any dry air intrusions. The official intensity forecast is similar
to but slightly lower than the intensity consensus model IVCN
through 96 hours, and near the LGEM intensity model at 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 10.9N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.2N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.6N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 12.0N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 12.5N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 13.4N 46.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 13.9N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 54.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
Quoting 546. Grothar:

The ECMWF 12 hour interpolation models




May be time to hoist the shields.
549. JRRP
Quoting 525. Gearsts:

That dust is moving faster west than Danny.
yeah
Quoting 522. Grothar:

I might make a personal blog tonight quoting everyone who said nothing could form. Anyone interested?????


Last two seasons have felt that way. Conditions in MDR win, maybe a few tropical storms eek it out, but no MDR Hurricanes. Hurricanes came North and North East of the Bahamas and MDR was just brutal last two years. Should have expected the unexpected. Danny is serious, hope he fishes or it could be a wee bit of a problem.
Quoting 542. Grothar:

the 12z GFS ensemble models






interesting note, but The GFS has been one of the worst at forecasting/tracking this thing so far.
Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:



According to NHC its W


it does seem to be going due West but it's banding is increasing giving the appearance its moving slightly to the Northwest
Quoting 546. Grothar:

The ECMWF 12 hour interpolation models


Welp, time to put up the shutters it's coming to Miami, Gro. :)

This is what the HWRF showed around late yesterday night.A tad bit over exaggerated but almost very close.
i think are TS will have 50mph winds at 11pm and 70 mph winds by 5am
Quoting 537. washingtonian115:

If Danny continues on the current trend you all in the caribbean might have a real unwelcomed visitor on your hands later this week.You better hope that dry air comes to the rescue.

Also note that the HWRF had this exact same structure depicted on the model run yesterday night.Scary.
To note, it also shows this for tomorrow evening, beginning to develop an eye.
Quoting 552. whitewabit:



it does seem to be going due West but it's banding is increasing giving the appearance its moving slightly to the Northwest


west by north :-P
Quoting 554. washingtonian115:




That HWRF is really nailing it with this storm so far.
US is down the line however. Our Caribbean friends may have a big one on their hands soon.
Good to see we're still having the WNW v. W conversation. That makes for an entertaining read.

Bay News 9 not helping me panic at all. They're kinda downplaying Danny saying he may die a horrible death in the Eastern Caribbean.
Quoting 522. Grothar:

I might make a personal blog tonight quoting everyone who said nothing could form. Anyone interested?????

TS Danny now officially on the map makes yet another bold step forward into the realms of 2015
BAM!.......Florida
Quoting 551. SSL1441:



interesting note, but The GFS has been one of the worst at forecasting/tracking this thing so far.
GFS actually got it almost about right in the long term, but did poorly in the short term. GFS showed in the long term a strong storm heading towards the Lesser Antilles around this time.
TS Danny forms. I think it can survive the dry air if it continues to get better organized and stronger. It could even become a category 2 hurricane. We will see.

Read more.
Quoting 558. SSL1441:



That HWRF is really nailing it with this storm so far.
it has been the only model not to flip flop and go back and forth.It has stuck to its guns from the beginning and it seems to be paying off.
Quoting 521. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Perfect Outflow. Convection has blossomed even more. I think a 60 mph tropical storm by 5am et.
well its gonna take It up a notch or two shortly about to throw it in overdrive
All the storms that formed within 200 miles of Danny and in August

Danny is steadily organizing and moving very slow as well im guessing the HWRF model knows whats up
570. FOREX
Quoting 562. K8eCane:

BAM!.......Florida


I keep reading tweets from Hurricane chasers that believe Danny will fizzle out once past the Islands and will just be an open wave that moves into central America. Then again, who knows.
Quoting 515. Grothar:



You've been reading Patrap too long.


It could pass for PacMan.
i no Caribbean boy is going too be happy lol he going too get his rain that he been wanting
All the storms that formed within 200 miles of Danny and in August

This storm received its commission on August 1(P. 525) as part of a season forecast.

It has been further designated as a "friend of the earth"(P. 2,) which is also a forecast.



i think the HWRF will be the big winner here
Quoting 573. ncstorm:

All the storms that formed within 200 miles of Danny and in August


So...anywhere from Belize to the Azores.
TS Danny is about 1,663 miles away from Dominica.
Quoting 572. Tazmanian:

i no Caribbean boy is going too be happy lol he going too get his rain that he been wanting


not only is he wanting it .. they are in as serious of a drought as you in California ..
Quoting 576. MiamiHurricanes09:

So...anywhere from Belize to the Azores.


well you look for your house and if its on one of squiggly lines then thats where it will end up..
I love this stage of the blog.

10:00 GMT : It looks great! Amazing structure! Cat 5 coming in 24 hours! Florida better get ready!

11:00 GMT : It looks terrible... Open wave in 24 hours... I told you all it wouldn't develop, it's Godzilla El Nino....

12:00 GMT : Holy Moly! Look at those Hot towers! Pin Hole eye!

etc etc....
Danny could be one of the most interesting storms we have tracked in a long time.

These are the storms I love to track. Way out there not impacting anyone at the moment and there are numerous different scenarios that could play out.


new big t.storms tops right in the center
Quoting 578. whitewabit:



not only is he wanting it .. they are in as serious of a drought as you in California ..



will it looks like are storm will be taking care of the drought they been haveing over there and in PR
Quoting 546. Grothar:

The ECMWF 12 hour interpolation models



Yet another psychedelic squid?
Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:



According to NHC its W

The NHC has it moving at 280....which is slightly north of west. Not quite west of west and not WNW...more Cayman West.
Quoting 567. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well its gonna take It up a notch or two shortly about to throw it in overdrive


Looks like the COC is moving around ..
2,998 miles away from Miami also.
HWRF model doing a very good job so far with tropical storm danny
Gonna head home and a little afraid of what I will see on the loops tomorrow morning; as least NHC (as always) is on it and giving folks downstream plenty of advance warning. That is a blessing regardless of the ultimate outcome.
593. MahFL
Quoting 538. FLMermaid:

Let me ask you all this, whats going to play a role in steering Danny? He's looking pretty impressive tonight.


Why don't you read the NHC Discussion, it has all the info you need on there.
Could we potentially see our first major hurricane from Danny? I hope not! Looking really good at the moment though.
Quoting 587. whitewabit:



Looks like the COC is moving around ..

ya this thing may take right off tonight could even RI for a while maybe
we are gonna see over the next 6 or so hrs
Quoting 588. Climate175:

2,998 miles away from Miami also.



are you from dominica?
Quoting 594. Envoirment:

Could we potentially see our first major hurricane from Danny? I hope not! Looking really good at the moment though.


there a really good ch


not good at all1
Quoting 596. java162:




are you from dominica?
No.
601. FOREX
Don't see Danny coming here, but water temp here in Panama City Beach today was 88.
Quoting 573. ncstorm:

All the storms that formed within 200 miles of Danny and in August




Are those Andrew and Katrina's tracks I see on that graphic?
Great to see some action in the Atlantic. I had forgotten what that was like
604. MahFL
Quoting 535. Camerooski:

I don't want to be a negative Nancy, but I love how everyone is talking about how Danny will rapidly strengthen,...


It's slow steady strengthening according to the NHC, not rapid.
Quoting 595. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ya this thing may take right off tonight could even RI for a while maybe
we are gonna see over the next 6 or so hrs


think so to .. Danny is looking for the sweet spot .. see the towers on the SW band impressive for Danny's stage in life !!
look for hurricane watchs too go for the WINDWARD ISLANDS by thursday night or friday
Quoting 598. hurricanes2018:



not good at all1
We shall see how that plays out as it nears closer to the US.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON INENG
5:00 AM PhST August 19 2015
=====================
Typhoon "INENG" maintained its strength and continues to move westward

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ineng [GONI] (945 hPa) located at 18.9N 130.7E or 955 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meter

Luzon Region
----------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Cagayan including Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Enhanced “Habagat” currently affecting Palawan and Visayas, occasional rains over the western section of Luzon including Metro Manila possible beginning Thursday until early next week

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Very interesting.
610. MahFL
Some yellows on TS Danny, which means intense moisture :

HWRF is the top dog out of all the models

GFS still has a bad start shows the TS forming later.
Quoting 602. OBXNCWEATHER:



Are those Andrew and Katrina's tracks I see on that graphic?


Just Andrew..
Hurricane Danny will be kill by the wind shear before reach the islands.Any model said that?
Quoting 542. Grothar:

the 12z GFS ensemble models






I'm not much for that AP02 run.....would much prefer we go with the AP14!!!!!!!!!!!
Defying Danny should be the nick name if he defies all the odds thrown toward him.
am droping the GFS it has not got in one thing right so far a few days a go the GFS was forcasting twin CAT 5 supper TYPHOONS well that did not go well in fact all models got that wrong

now here we are with a new TS and right now the GFS is a out liner
Quoting 521. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Perfect Outflow. Convection has blossomed even more. I think a 60 mph tropical storm by 5am et.


Lmao look at his face he is saying hi to all the haters!
Quoting 602. OBXNCWEATHER:



Are those Andrew and Katrina's tracks I see on that graphic?
Andrew's is there but not Katrina's
Quoting 614. ncstorm:



Just Andrew..


Thanks... What's the Gulf storm? Just wondering...
623. JLPR2
Ah Danny, I wasn't expecting a TS so quickly.
To think last night I said TD by 5pm and that was if we were lucky. XD


Quoting 613. Gearsts:

GFS still has a bad start shows the TS forming later.




the GFS is nothing but a out liner
625. FOREX
Quoting 615. prcane4you:

Hurricane Danny will be kill by the wind shear before reach the islands.Any model said that?


A couple of hours ago on TWC, the tropical expert had the shear map up and shear looked ok until after it passed the Islands.


next tropical wave back of danny
Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:



According to NHC its W
Not quite -

"The initial motion estimate remains 280/11 kt."

Also starts a more pronounced NW movement after 48 hours -

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 10.9N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.2N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.6N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 12.0N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 12.5N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 13.4N 46.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 13.9N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 54.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
628. FOREX
18Z GFS running and not showing much intensification with Danny so far.
Quoting 624. Tazmanian:




the GFS is nothing but a out liner


Outlier
630. FOREX
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 4m4 minutes ago
GFS 18z -- running now -- doesn't show much intensification of TS #Danny (04L) thru tomorrow.

Quoting 622. OBXNCWEATHER:


Thanks... What's the Gulf storm? Just wondering...

andrew went into the gulf after crossing over south florida
would not be at all surprised to see a hurricane by tomorrow- it's got that look about it and looks better every few hours-think that it will clip the northern leewards as a cat 2/3
Quoting 630. FOREX:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 4m4 minutes ago
GFS 18z -- running now -- doesn't show much intensification of TS #Danny (04L) thru tomorrow.


GFS still not getting it
Recent microwave pass:

635. A4Guy
For old time's sake...and to see how many laughs I get from the "long-timers" on the blog, I am going to ask this question only once....

If Danny strengthens into a strong hurricane...will it be able to "pump the ridge"?

Oh...what times we had. Civilizations were almost lost on this very concept (well, not quite...but a number of people were banned or quit the blog forever after the war of the words that came out of this concept).
Quoting 602. OBXNCWEATHER:



Are those Andrew and Katrina's tracks I see on that graphic?


Nope, but I do see Frances ('04).
Quoting 634. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recent microwave pass:


And the GFS showing and open wave at 0 hours on this run 1010mb.
Hurricane Tracker App @hurrtrackerapp . 1hr
#TD4 has been upgraded to TS #Danny. Likely will become Hurricane Danny by this weekend. All interests in the Lesser Antilles keep watch.
Quoting 635. A4Guy:

For old time's sake...and to see how many laughs I get from the "long-timers" on the blog, I am going to ask this question only once....

If Danny strengthens into a strong hurricane...will it be able to "pump the ridge"?


LOL..Oh my goodness..
I remember.. :)

Dmax will be critical tonight..
Could make or break Danny..
JMO.. :)
Quoting 633. Gearsts:

GFS still not getting it

Quoting 637. Gearsts:

And the GFS showing and open wave at 0 hours on this run 1010mb.



i think its time too drop the GFS
GFS coming in slightly stronger this run... we'll see...

Quoting 634. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recent microwave pass:


Time for us to eat crow?
crown weather is stating there could be up to three atlantic systems ongoing by this time next week
650 posts in 6 1/4 hours ...
:-)
Quoting 644. Gearsts:




Annular? :P
DANG- maybe if my avatar was me without a shirt, I could get more people to answer MY questions, too!!
Quoting 600. Climate175:

No.


thought i had company......im looking forward to danny...its been extremely dry for this time of year....well below average rainfall for the past 2 months of the rainy season... this month shaping up to be even worse. typically we get on average 13 inches in august along the coast, so far wehave barely gotten over an inch.... although water resources are of 0 concern to us unlike the other islands, we could still do with some rain :)
Quoting 642. CybrTeddy:

GFS coming in slightly stronger this run... we'll see...




A little more believable than the 12z but its still having a hard time.
72hrsdeveloping.monster
Quoting 612. bigwes6844:

HWRF is the top dog out of all the models




It's that westward turn it takes Friday afternoon that makes this whole siuation more interesting
Quoting 643. Gearsts:

Time for us to eat crow?



time too give crow too the GFS
Quoting 635. A4Guy:

For old time's sake...and to see how many laughs I get from the "long-timers" on the blog, I am going to ask this question only once....

If Danny strengthens into a strong hurricane...will it be able to "pump the ridge"?

Oh...what times we had. Civilizations were almost lost on this very concept (well, not quite...but a number of people were banned or quit the blog forever after the war of the words that came out of this concept).


I remember Dr. Masters was consulted on the topic and his email posted for proof of the phenomenom..

It was during Earl when all this went down..


New lil blip to the SE of the big blip.



Something bout its look that I don't like though...

Oh well, who am I to judge a bunch of swirling clouds.
LOL GFS
At this point and with this Strong El Nio event I don't see Danny making it as far as the GOMEX, but if it trends north west before entering the Caribbean it could bring much needed rain to the island of Puerto Rico which is going through a severe drought.
Quoting 649. aquak9:

DANG- maybe if my avatar was me without a shirt, I could get more people to answer MY questions, too!!


LOL..
661. JRRP

stronger
Something of a switch in the 18z GFS...

Quoting 648. JrWeathermanFL:



Annular? :P

Congruent.. Lol.. :)

CIMSS
Quoting 662. CybrTeddy:

Something of a switch in the 18z GFS...




Here we go... Lol jumping on the HWRF bandwagon
HWRF is doing a GFS type Debby..all the models had it going to Texas except the GFS which had it going to Florida..

dont be surprise if the next updates in the model runs jump on HWRF bandwagon..GFS looks to already take that leap..
The way things looking for Danny , it could be a hurricane by 5pm tomorrow or before!
Despite some dry air it keeps very insulated within he's moisture bubble
Quoting 659. CaneHunter031472:

At this point and with this Strong El Ni�o event I don't see Danny making it as far as the GOMEX, but if it trends north west before entering the Caribbean it could bring much needed rain to the island of Puerto Rico which is going through a severe drought.

Still bitter about Gabrielle? lol... that was a brutally disappointing year.
669. MahFL
Virtually no shear direction markers for 11 degrees of longitude :



Danny at 120 hours...

Tornado on the ground with debris in the air near Chenoa, Il heading in the direction of Pontiac, Il
how about this for outflow, fresh map.



Finally a good storm to track!
Quoting 646. BahaHurican:

650 posts in 6 1/4 hours ...
:-)


According to that it must be storm somewhere in the Atlantic! :))
Quoting 670. GeoffreyWPB:

Danny at 120 hours...


676. MahFL
Quoting 659. CaneHunter031472:

At this point and with this Strong El Ni�o event I don't see Danny making it as far as the GOMEX, but if it trends north west before entering the Caribbean it could bring much needed rain to the island of Puerto Rico which is going through a severe drought.


It's actually Extreme Drought, worse than Severe :

677. JRRP


Oh oh
tornado 2 miles north of Chenoa, Il .. 5 miles south of Pontiac, Il

Sirens in Pontiac are activated !!
Quoting 677. JRRP:



Oh oh


That would wake me up if I was where you are.
Quoting 669. MahFL:

Virtually no shear direction markers for 11 degrees of longitude :





Look how light shear is just north of the islands if it ends up in the Bahamas all bets are off!
Link




Quoting 649. aquak9:

DANG- maybe if my avatar was me without a shirt, I could get more people to answer MY questions, too!!


LOL
watch the cimss wind shear maps, it moves with the storm. unless danny outruns it, it'll stay in the pocket.

Quoting 615. prcane4you:

Hurricane Danny will be kill by the wind shear before reach the islands.Any model said that?
Quoting 680. Ricki13th:


Look how light shear is just north of the islands if it ends up in the Bahamas all bets are off!
True!
let me just say, our public water works wastes 58% of all it's water (and 60% for over 20 years) on broken pipes around the island. yes, we have drought, but we have something worse: an inept water works corporation...

Quoting 676. MahFL:



It's actually Extreme Drought, worse than Severe :


686. MahFL
Quoting 672. ProgressivePulse:

how about this for outflow, fresh map.






Oh nice map, never seen the storm specific one before.
Good afternoon everyone, has there ever been a Hurricane that has fought off high shear ( in the Atlantic ) and still made landfall on the Islands or US East Coast? also wasn't Frances a Cape Verde storm?
Quoting 679. ProgressivePulse:



That would wake me up if I was where you are.


Good afternoon, everyone

I've been following the blog for the last two days and each time I look, my anxiety level gets a little higher!!

(By the way, JRRP's posts are going to give me nightmares tonight.....)

Thanks for all the info....I've a feeling we're needing it!

Lindy
Danny has ever thing going for it it has a good shot of be comeing a cat 4 storm in a few days
Have to say I've never seen a star shaped anticyclone.
T.C.F.W.
RI FLAG FLAG
04L/TS/D/CX
Atsani starting EWRC?



tropical storm danny looking good so far
Quoting 692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.W.
RI FLAG FLAG
04L/TS/D/CX



RI FLAG / FLAG is bad right?

OFF is good?
697. MahFL
Danny is creeping onto the regular hurricane sat pic image, with that we get zoom 1.

Not much room for a recurve before the islands with the 594dm mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north. Probably gonna track toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

GFS very much onbaord now.

18z Navgem currently running..

Oh this run is going to be fun to watch all the way through...

Crosses PR and heads for the Bahamas.

Quoting 694. TimSoCal:

Atsani starting EWRC?



Exiting one.

Quoting 694. TimSoCal:

Atsani starting EWRC?







It looks as if it's about to finish EWRC.
72 hours
CaribBoy where are you?
Quoting 692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.W.
RI FLAG FLAG
04L/TS/D/CX

Nice burst over the very center.

Quoting 704. StormTrackerScott:

Crosses PR and heads for the Bahamas.




Hi Scott..Could this become another Frances? I hope not seeing we have at least 8 days to find out.
Quoting 684. Climate175:

True!


Gulp as soon as I said that this happens


This could get interesting if it survives any potential land interaction
Quoting 649. aquak9:

DANG- maybe if my avatar was me without a shirt, I could get more people to answer MY questions, too!!


Ummm. Nah... I think I better leave this one alone....

I see our models still indicate a nice strong Hurricane to hit the WIndwards.... Maybe it will also dump copious amounts of rain in PR and hit the Hurricane graveyard afterwards. That area seems to kill even Cat 5's... THis way PR gets what it needs and I don't have to deal with a hurricane either.
Quoting 706. Articuno:






It looks as if it's about to finish EWRC.


Ahh makes sense. Sat presentation might take a while to catch up.
I miss the moments when you post something on this site and by the time it actually posts its on another page because of all of the other posts lol
717. FOREX
Quoting 704. StormTrackerScott:

Crosses PR and heads for the Bahamas.



Then up the Eastern seaboard I presume?
18z GFS is showing Danny with same trajectory as George(1998)


Quoting 656. ncstorm:



I remember Dr. Masters was consulted on the topic and his email posted for proof of the phenomenom..

It was during Earl when all this went down..
what does this mean
Quoting 717. FOREX:


Then up the Eastern seaboard I presume?


Dont know, at 192 hours it is off the northern coast of DR
Quoting 716. Hurricanes101:

I miss the moments when you post something on this site and by the time it actually posts its on another page because of all of the other posts lol
This made me laugh too much because of the reality of that.

96 hours
Getting a shot of very moist air from the ITCZ..

Quoting 718. stormchaser19:

18z GFS is showing Danny with same trajectory as George(1998)



i hope danny not a cat 4 hurricane anytime soon
Quoting 710. hydrus:

Nice burst over the very center.


hence the RI flag
Still alive as it remerge.
GFS has Danny coming up toward FL as strong system
There goes the CDO


that SAL satellite representation in movement really poses the most threat to slowing down intensity in the system... wouldn't be surprised to see danny have some difficulty when wrapping in bands. it's really on it.
Quoting 717. FOREX:


Then up the Eastern seaboard I presume?
Could not rule out the gulf yet, but it is unlikely with the western ridge, eastern trof pattern that is prevalent.
Quoting 522. Grothar:

I might make a personal blog tonight quoting everyone who said nothing could form. Anyone interested?????


as long as it doesn't have that freaky image with the mohawk everyone is re-posting i am game.
Quoting 709. Gearsts:

CaribBoy where are you?
likely afraid to even say anything too jinx it
734. JRRP

Thanks for the heads up with plussing it..

108 hours



Heading for the Bahamas.
Quoting 726. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hence the RI flag
Wasnt sure..I,m use to it saying on, rather than flag.
CaribBoy is going too love this
Quoting 728. StormTrackerScott:

GFS has Danny coming up toward FL as strong system
Hey can you tell me if it is South Florida or Northern Florida? I live in Fort Lauderdale
120 hours

OREGON'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - NEW RECORD MOST 90 F DAYS IN A YEAR: 2015 is already the calendar year that has the record most days with a maximum temperature at the Portland airport of at least 90 F, with 25 such days as of August 18. The record is expected to be extended on August 19. Portland is the most populous city in Oregon. 90 F is about 32 C.

Link
Cue the hype.

Quoting 742. Grothar:




looks like a muppet lol
Quoting 710. hydrus:

Nice burst over the very center.




I think the burst is just N and E of the centre
What does ULAC stand for?
Danny has his eyes set for Florida per this run it survives land interaction pretty well. "Those waters in the Bahamas are HOT this time of year" so I have heard...

Quoting 739. Camerooski:

Hey can you tell me if it is South Florida or Northern Florida? I live in Fort Lauderdale


S FL strike this run. Images loading faster than I can post/
749. IDTH
I'm back, I see we have Danny now, not a surprise as the storm has been looking better and better each hour.
Quoting 737. hydrus:

Wasnt sure..I,m use to it saying on, rather than flag.


off no RI
flag POSS RI
on RI IN PROGRESS
that's the commands
Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cue the hype.




The run I have its already @ S FL.
Quoting 746. weathergirl2001:

What does ULAC stand for?

Upper-level anticyclone--high pressure aloft that favors low wind shear. Favorable for development.
Quoting 746. weathergirl2001:

What does ULAC stand for?


Upper Level Anticyclone = Excellent Ventilation
very.dangerous..gfs
132 hours

Upper Level AntiCyclone

Thanks Analyst---I slowly figured that out on my own :)
18Z GFS has what looks like a cat 1 hurricane crossing S FL.
Quoting 744. Hurricanes101:



looks like a muppet lol


animal
LOL
Quoting 751. StormTrackerScott:






Thanks for ruining the anticipation for everyone else lol
Don't care for the latest GFS coming out ... Florida Keys ;>)
18z HWRF 39 HOURS.
762. JRRP
Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cue the hype.



avoid the higher mountains of Dominican Republic??...
higher terrain are in the center of DR
Quoting 754. islander101010:

very.dangerous..gfs


the GFS went from downcasting too wishcasting and may be not a out liner any more
144 hours

765. VR46L
I know its the GFS but .....

Quoting 757. StormTrackerScott:

18Z GFS has what looks like a cat 1 hurricane crossing S FL.


Here is a more visual representation:



Danny draws near...

Quoting 757. StormTrackerScott:

18Z GFS has what looks like a cat 1 hurricane crossing S FL.


i wounder if it has a hurricane katrina path after if cross S FL
still with that pirate grammar huh... some things never change :)

Quoting 763. Tazmanian:



the GFS went from downcasting too wishcasting and may be not a out liner any more
156 hours

Quoting 764. ncstorm:

144 hours


Same track?
Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cue the hype.




[hype intensifies]

Quoting 726. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hence the RI flag
What RI flag?
Quoting 772. CybrTeddy:



[hype intensifies]



Dmin over the system.
Danny might go over the Florida straights and into the Gulf I can't watch anymore. Wayyy to far out


The GFS showing us that Danny could be a long tracking cane.
777. FOREX
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1m1 minute ago
We're going to start seeing GFS storm-tracks taking #Danny into the Bahamas in 10-days. Treat with caution and forecast > 5-days (!)

floater RGB 04L TS D
.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 10:55:29 N Lon : 37:37:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1011.8mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.1 2.1

Center Temp : -16.1C Cloud Region Temp : -48.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:07:11 N Lon: 37:13:12 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON

Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.8 degrees

************************************************* ***

History File Listing
PMW Information
Satellite Imagery
Time Se
it has a hurricane katrina path
A new observation recently came in for buoy 41026. Danny is stronger than indicated, assuming this is a valid reading. This buoy is at 12N/38W, right in that developing CDO feature.

Seems like the High to the north will block it from going up the coast!
Quoting 776. Ricki13th:

Danny might go over the Florida straights and into the Gulf I can't watch anymore. Wayyy to far out


The GFS showing us that Danny could be a long tracking cane.
typhoon.trough.pulls.danny
Quoting 781. Huracan94:

I'm back. Has TD 4 become a tropical storm yet?


you could have easy found that out your self by going here


Link
Quoting 781. Huracan94:

I'm back. Has TD 4 become a tropical storm yet?

Most certainly.
So now if the GFS is consistent for the next 40 runs..........
My take for what its worth. Initial forecast cat2, based on need to play defensive game, looks like game plan correct.
nvm.
I'm sure that this blog is going to be lit for the 00z GFS run..

Quoting 785. islander101010:

typhoon.trough.pulls.danny

Maybe..Who..Knows?..:)
794. JLPR2
Quoting 783. MAweatherboy1:

A new observation recently came in for buoy 41026. Danny is stronger than indicated, assuming this is a valid reading. This buoy is at 12N/38W, right in that developing CDO feature.




Impressive, that's 48mph.
Quoting 791. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Some weakening, although not notable visually
All models are pointing towards P.R first...

5 minutes fine? 50? unreal...
Thats a impressive Burst near the CoC indeed.



Lookin vicious this evening, aren't we?
i think the winds may go up too 50 mph with the 11pm update
The GFS is being way too inconsistent for me to take it seriously, especially beyond 120 hours.
803. MahFL
Oh gawd, a Tampa Bay hit.
Canada & UK agree.... looks good to me.


Last frame of the 18z Navgem..

180 hours

Quoting 802. CybrTeddy:

The GFS is being way too inconsistent for me to take it seriously, especially beyond 120 hours.

I agree, although the track it has is certainly not a good track for those after the islands, Hispaniola as it always seems to be a major factor in future outcomes.
Anyone have any idea why it takes so much longer for this page to load when I'm logged in as opposed to when I'm not (other than a huge conspiracy to keep me from asking stupid questions)? Even with a lot of comments, it loads quick when I'm not logged in but takes a long time when I do log in.

Quoting 801. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




The SST in the GOM is crazy warm right now..
Quoting 750. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



off no RI
flag POSS RI
on RI IN PROGRESS
that's the commands
Thank you....I have only seen the on and off...Suffice it to say, the islands will likely get some rough weather. Now is the time to at least get a plan in order. The shutters can wait until they pin it down.
Quoting 801. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Wow, it hot water in the mid-GOM!
HWRF 18Z 66 Hours --975 mb Overdoing?
Quoting 808. weathergirl2001:




Now that is the type of panic-inducing graphic I can wrap my hands around. Off to buy plywood....
Quoting 807. BobinTampa:

Anyone have any idea why it takes so much longer for this page to load when I'm logged in as opposed to when I'm not (other than a huge conspiracy to keep me from asking stupid questions)? Even with a lot of comments, it loads quick when I'm not logged in but takes a long time when I do log in.



Banner/Header heavy website..
Especially when logged in..
Make sure when one is logged in that the page is set to "50" comments to load faster.

Quoting 804. nrtiwlnvragn:

Canada & UK agree.... looks good to me.





Looks like it could go either way depending on how quickly Danny strengthens. For now, it's "wait and see" time.
817. FOREX
Quoting 808. weathergirl2001:




Looks pretty weak at that point.
GFS is good with depicting long range events just like it did with Danny, so it may be worth watching that timeframe and area. We will see if it continues in future runs.
I would like to say that the GFS is more than likely incorrect, i mean we are still 20 days away from the storm coming close to the U.S. However, if Danny manages to survive the Caribbean and head into the Bahamas area, we could see some RI from Danny and a possible South Florida landfall of a major hurricane. Or it could pull a Rita and go through the Gulf Stream and be terrible news for the Gulf Coast... Very scary situation, but were still 15-25 days away from a landfall in the U.S
Quoting 813. BobinTampa:



Now that is the type of panic-inducing graphic I can wrap my hands around. Off to buy plywood....

The winds don't look too strong tho? What am i missing???
Quoting 819. Camerooski:

I would like to say that the GFS is more than likely incorrect, i mean we are still 20 days away from the storm coming close to the U.S. However, if Danny manages to survive the Caribbean and head into the Bahamas area, we could see some RI from Danny and a possible South Florida landfall of a major hurricane. Or it could pull a Rita and go through the Gulf Stream and be terrible news for the Gulf Coast... Very scary situation, but were still 15-25 days away from a landfall in the U.S


Its not 20 days away from landfall in the US, IF it even gets that far
Quoting 819. Camerooski:

I would like to say that the GFS is more than likely incorrect, i mean we are still 20 days away from the storm coming close to the U.S. However, if Danny manages to survive the Caribbean and head into the Bahamas area, we could see some RI from Danny and a possible South Florida landfall of a major hurricane. Or it could pull a Rita and go through the Gulf Stream and be terrible news for the Gulf Coast... Very scary situation, but were still 15-25 days away from a landfall in the U.S

Don't you think 25 days is alot? I mean 25 days from now is mid september
Quoting 820. nygiants:


The winds don't look too strong tho? What am i missing???

GFS loses resolution at that late in the run, hard to say.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 30m30 minutes ago
GFS 18z now on board with pint-sized Hurricane #Danny in 5-7 days -- reaching islands at 990 mb next week.

Now we wait on the Euro...
Quoting 820. nygiants:


The winds don't look too strong tho? What am i missing???


Nothing. A joke about me panicking from earlier today. That's all.
Quoting 776. Ricki13th:

Danny might go over the Florida straights and into the Gulf I can't watch anymore. Wayyy to far out


The GFS showing us that Danny could be a long tracking cane.
That shows 1000 mb,s or more, not near hurricane strength..Therefore not a true long track hurricane.
Quoting 800. Tazmanian:

i think the winds may go up too 50 mph with the 11pm update


seems reasonable given post #783
Quoting 776. Ricki13th:

Danny might go over the Florida straights and into the Gulf I can't watch anymore. Wayyy to far out


The GFS showing us that Danny could be a long tracking cane.


So, uhm, how many days do we have in which to build our arks?? -- or bunkers, for "hunkering down"?
Quoting 826. hydrus:

That shows 1000 mb,s or more, not near hurricane strength..Therefore not a true long track hurricane.


we know the pressure they show in the long range is not accurate either lol
Remember GFS past 240 gets low resolution, can't say it's weak based on those maps. Anyways, it's gonna change again and again, then guess what maybe one more time for show. Let's all be happy as weather enthusiasts that we have a trackable storm in the atlantic, this is great! Weather beer good people
Quoting 824. washingtonian115:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 30m30 minutes ago
GFS 18z now on board with pint-sized Hurricane #Danny in 5-7 days -- reaching islands at 990 mb next week.

Now we wait on the Euro...


Going to be waiting awhile lol
832. FOREX
Quoting 828. WalkingInTheSun:



So, uhm, how many days do we have in which to build our arks?? -- or bunkers, for "hunkering down"?
18 days if u live in Tampa
Quoting 807. BobinTampa:

Anyone have any idea why it takes so much longer for this page to load when I'm logged in as opposed to when I'm not (other than a huge conspiracy to keep me from asking stupid questions)? Even with a lot of comments, it loads quick when I'm not logged in but takes a long time when I do log in.


select show 50 comments and that should speed things up
if u have show 200 comments well it takes a bit too load
I show only 50 comments and no issues with loading unless 200
then just slows a little bit but not much for me anyway
with this corsair gaming tower
Quoting 800. Tazmanian:

i think the winds may go up too 50 mph with the 11pm update



11pm or 8pm..... im a bit confused... i though updates suppose to be given at 8,2,8 and 2 unless we have an impending landfall... has this changed?
So, will it reach 500 mph and start dropping sharks by the time it reaches Florida?
:)

- After all, we do have to contend with climate change & superstorms, now, right?
-- Oh snap, the climate change might help: an early cold front pushing it back out to sea, perhaps.
Quoting 826. hydrus:

That shows 1000 mb,s or more, not near hurricane strength..Therefore not a true long track hurricane.


GFS loses resolution beyond 240 hours, the latest high resolution frame would probably be at least a strong TS.
gfs.upstream..another.s.florida.threat
Quoting 834. java162:




11pm or 8pm..... im a bit confused... i though updates suppose to be given at 8,2,8 and 2 unless we have an impending landfall... has this changed?


The tropical weather outlooks and discussions come out at 2,8,2,8. The updated coordinates of a storm comes out at 5,11,5,11 unless there are watches where it they come out every 3 hours
intermediate advisories only when imminent threat to land, as in watches / warnings issued

Quoting 834. java162:




11pm or 8pm..... im a bit confused... i though updates suppose to be given at 8,2,8 and 2 unless we have an impending landfall... has this changed?
Quoting 831. Hurricanes101:



Going to be waiting awhile lol
I'll be sleep but I'll go back to see what the run was like.
Quoting 833. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

select show 50 comments and that should speed things up
if u have show 200 comments well it takes a bit too load
I show only 50 comments and no issues with loading unless 200
then just slows a little bit but not much for me anyway
with this corsair gaming tower


Yeah, I had it set to 200 comments. I'll switch to 50. Seems I always miss something when I have it at 50 though. And for the record, as a Moderator, you're denying the existence of a conspiracy to keep me from asking stupid questions?
842. SLU
42kts reported from the buoy at 12n 38w.

Link
Quoting 825. BobinTampa:



Nothing. A joke about me panicking from earlier today. That's all.

oh LOL sorry
Quoting 833. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

with this corsair gaming tower


well excuse me
Quoting 834. java162:




11pm or 8pm..... im a bit confused... i though updates suppose to be given at 8,2,8 and 2 unless we have an impending landfall... has this changed?


11pm the olny time you get 2pm and 8pm update is if you have warning and watchs up other then that is 11pm and 5pm
Quoting 832. FOREX:

18 days if u live in Tampa


There was a mention that it might speed up as it gets closer: did you figure that into the equation?

04L
TROPICAL STORM 04L 18:00UTC 18August2015
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 10:45:14 N
Longitude : 37:13:28 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1005.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 931.6 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 73.4 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.3 m/s
Direction : 230.3 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 11m11 minutes ago
Buoy ~50 km north of #Danny's center jumping to 42 kt sustained winds this hour
849. MahFL
Right over my house.....

Quoting 844. serialteg:



well excuse me
sorry I play games in my spare time I am a wot/wows member as well

user name there is doombuggy drop by so I can kill you in game that is
851. FOREX
Quoting 846. WalkingInTheSun:



There was a mention that it might speed up as it gets closer: did you figure that into the equation?

No, just went by the map that was posted. I'm not that advanced.lol
Quoting 848. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 11m11 minutes ago
Buoy ~50 km north of #Danny's center jumping to 42 kt sustained winds this hour


Would the NHC consider that due to a burst of convection more than actual sustained winds?
Quoting 849. MahFL:

Right over my house.....




I'll sell you some slightly used plywood.
In the meantime, an area of deep convection is firing right over the center and could become a CDO. Air really rushing into circulation and rising fast. I suspect a 50 mph by 11pm. Let's focus on the near term for now.
Not that far out maybe 8-15 days but anyway your right it'll be intresting to watch and I'm glad to be a part of it.
Quoting 819. Camerooski:

I would like to say that the GFS is more than likely incorrect, i mean we are still 20 days away from the storm coming close to the U.S. However, if Danny manages to survive the Caribbean and head into the Bahamas area, we could see some RI from Danny and a possible South Florida landfall of a major hurricane. Or it could pull a Rita and go through the Gulf Stream and be terrible news for the Gulf Coast... Very scary situation, but were still 15-25 days away from a landfall in the U.S

Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cue the hype.


Like I said last night HEBERT BOX
Quoting 802. CybrTeddy:

The GFS is being way too inconsistent for me to take it seriously, especially beyond 120 hours.
If it keeps showing this, though, I'd start to worry. GFS did show a Danny like storm in the area about 10 days ago ... right now I'm more impressed by it 10 days out than 72 hours out ....
Quoting 812. stormchaser19:

HWRF 18Z 66 Hours --975 mb Overdoing?

Did that last run as well.
Tornado that was tracked between Chenoa, Il and Pontiac, Il lifted just of the out skirts of Pontiac ..

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 826. hydrus:

That shows 1000 mb,s or more, not near hurricane strength..Therefore not a true long track hurricane.

That's not the full resolution that show Danny's true strength and he does become a hurricane by staying offshore of Florida before plowing into Tampa.
How do I unignore a user? I am constantly having to click the eye next to some users post to see what they said and I am not sure how to make it so I don't have to click the eye icon anymore. thanks.
Quoting 841. BobinTampa:



Yeah, I had it set to 200 comments. I'll switch to 50. Seems I always miss something when I have it at 50 though. And for the record, as a Moderator, you're denying the existence of a conspiracy to keep me from asking stupid questions?
100 comments is a fair compromise. I have had a better experience with it like that. 50 comments made me stay way behind the blog all the time ....
Quoting 821. Hurricanes101:



Its not 20 days away from landfall in the US, IF it even gets that far
Only 10 to 12 days, the most, if it continues moving 10 to 15 MPH,,earlier if it speeds
up its forward movement...
Is euro out to lunch?
Quoting 863. BahaHurican:

100 comments is a fair compromise. I have had a better experience with it like that. 50 comments made me stay way behind the blog all the time ....


Hi Baha..I have mine set to 50 posts, due to the amount of repeat postings and a lot of spamming. I am also surprised at the number of members who come in and don't read back to know what is going on. That's the first thing I do.
North central Illinois looks to be getting some heavy weather, including one briefly tornado-warned cell NW of Bloomington headed in Chicago's direction, as well as severe thunderstorms and localized flooding. What fun! Seems like not all the action is in the MDR.
For those who missed it,...



Soudelor made landfall in Taiwan last week, the winds were strong enough to lift the nose of a Boeing 747.


870. VR46L
Quoting 862. Tokenfreak:

How do I unignore a user? I am constantly having to click the eye next to some users post to see what they said and I am not sure how to make it so I don't have to click the eye icon anymore. thanks.


Change your settling to Show all .... and you should see all comments ,unless you have personally place them on ignore
Are we on the air? I am watching Danny.

Quoting 865. BahaHurican:

.


Evening Baha!
Do we have a problem? Thrawst, can you see this?
.
Quoting 827. Articuno:



seems reasonable given post #783 YOur were right...
Quoting 316. Camille33:

Danny will become similar to hurricane Ivan. I expect a dangerous cat 5 hurricane in the Caribbean!
Stormtop?