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96L Slowly Organizing; Two Powerhouse Typhoons in NW Pacific

By: Bob Henson 8:02 PM GMT on August 17, 2015

While Invest 96L takes its time developing in the tropical Atlantic, typhoons Goni and Atsani haven’t been wasting much time in the Northwest Pacific, both becoming major typhoons in the last 24 hours. Neither typhoon poses an immediate threat to land, although Goni could spell big trouble for Taiwan or neighboring areas by week’s end (see below).


Figure 1. Visible image of Invest 96L, collected by the GOES-Floater satellite at 1745 GMT (2:45 pm EDT) on Monday, August 17. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

David vs. Goliath? 96L fights the El Niño factor
As of 2:00 pm EDT Monday, Invest 96L was located near 10°N and 31°W, moving west at about 10 mph. Located along a broad monsoon trough that coincides with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, 96L remains only loosely organized, with a large but unconsolidated area of showers and thunderstorms. Vertical wind shear is light (less than 10 knots), and 96L will encounter warmer sea-surface temperatures as it moves west-northwest (up to 28°C, or 82°F, by later this week), so the large-scale conditions favor gradual strengthening. The National Hurricane Center has been increasing the odds that 96L will develop: in its 8:00 am and 2:00 pm EDT updates, NHC gave the system a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next 5 days. The RAMMB/CIRA Tropical Genesis Index is also maintaining high odds for development. Among the favored models for intensity, the 1200 GMT Monday runs of the statistics-based LGEM and SHIPS models, which rely heavily on climatology, bring 96L to Category 2 strength by Thursday. The dynamics-based HWRF and GFDL models, which simulate tropical systems within nested high-resolution grids, diverge on the future of 96L. The HWRF develops 96L into a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday, while the GFDL fails to develop 96L significantly. As we discussed in last week’s post on tropical cyclone modeling, HWRF features a dramatic increase in resolution this year, so it will be interesting to see if it correctly pegs the fate of 96L.


Figure 2. A large swath of dry air and dust from the Saharan Desert dust is sweeping across the Atlantic just to the north of Invest 96L. Image credit: University of Wisconsin-CIMMS and NOAA Huricane Research Division.


While it seems that 96L has a reasonable shot at becoming a tropical storm (which would be named Danny), it also faces some obstacles. Foremost is a huge area of dry air and Saharan dust that extends across the tropical Atlantic just north of 96L’s path. As the system grows in size and strength, it would become more likely to ingest some of the dry, dusty air, which would hinder shower and thunderstorm activity. 96L may also encounter an increasing amount of vertical wind shear as it approaches the longitude of the Leeward and Windward Islands this weekend, assuming it survives up to that point. Over the northern Caribbean, shear has actually lessened from the near-record values observed earlier this summer, although shear values of 20 to 40 knots continue to prevail across the southern Caribbean. The ever-strengthening El Niño favors westerly wind at upper levels across this region, though it’s possible that the relative lull in shear over the northern Caribbean will continue as 96L approaches. A weak upper-level low is forecast to become pinched off near the Bahamas, south of a building ridge over the northwest Atlantic; this low could become a growing influence on 96L’s track and intensity as it moves west of longitude 60°W.

So far, a rare storm-free August
It’s been a very quiet August so far in the tropical Atlantic. Chris Dolce at weather.com points out that if we go another two weeks without a named storm, this will be the first such August since 1997—which happens to be the last year that featured an El Niño ramping up as strongly as the current one. Prior to 1997, the last August without any named storms was 1961 (which wasn’t an El Niño year).



Figure 3. Enhanced infrared image of Typhoon Goni from the MTSAT satellite at 1901 GMT (3:01 pm EDT) Monday, August 17. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Goni goes gonzo
The rapid strengthening of Typhoon Goni was a sight to behold on Sunday. As with Typhoon Soudelor, Goni wrapped an intense core of convection (showers and thunderstorms) around a tiny eye, allowing it to intensify at a phenomenal rate. Goni zoomed from tropical-storm strength (1-minute sustained winds of 65 mph) to Category 4 status (135 mph) from 0000 GMT Sunday to 0000 GMT Monday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Most of that strengthening occurred in just 12 hours (1200 GMT Sunday to 0000 GMT Monday), when JTWC bumped up Goni’s estimated sustained winds from 75 mph to 135 mph. (There have been even more rapid intensifications: in 1983, Typhoon Forrest went from 75- to 173-mph sustained winds in 24 hours.)

Over the last 12 - 18 hours, an eyewall replacement cycle has put at least a temporary brake on Goni’s headlong strengthening. The original tiny eye has dissolved within a larger, somewhat elongated feature, and JTWC has held the estimated peak winds at 135 mph. Goni’s overall structure remains potent, with ample strong convection at its core and extensive outflow aloft. Goni will be traveling in a low-shear environment over the next several days across very warm waters with relatively high heat content, so there is every reason to expect further intensification after the eyewall replacement cycle is complete. JTWC brings Goni’s sustained winds up to the super-typhoon threshold (130 knots, or about 150 mph) by Thursday, and I would not be surprised at all to see Goni reach Category 5 status, perhaps sooner than Thursday. Although Goni is projected to weaken somewhat after that point, it would still remain a formidable typhoon. Steering currents are also expected to weaken, which leaves a great deal of uncertainty over where and how Goni might affect land. The most recent JTWC outlook has Goni moving slowly northward just east of Taiwan as a strong typhoon toward the end of this week, a track roughly consistent with the 1200 GMT Monday runs of the operational GFS and HWRF models. Any slowdown in Goni’s progress near the mountainous terrain of Taiwan or nearby islands could lead to torrential, destructive rainfall. Taiwan’s worst natural disaster was in 2009, when Typhoon Morakot (which peaked at Category 2 strength) slowed just as it approached and moved over the island. Morakot brought Taiwan its all-time rainfall records for a 24-hour period (1403 mm or 55.2” at Weiliaoshan) and for a 48-hour period (2327 mm or 91.6” at Alishan).


Figure 4. Projected track for Typhoon Goni from 1200 GMT Monday, August 17, to 1200 GMT Friday, August 22. Image credit: Joint Typhoon Warning Center.


Figure 5. Infrared image of Typhoons Goni (left) and Atsani (right), collected by Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite at 1920 GMT on Monday, August 17. Image credit: JMA/MSC.

While nearby Typhoon Goni dazzled typhoon watchers with its rapid strengthening on Sunday, the larger, slower-growing Typhoon Atsani more than held its own, transitioning from a minimal hurricane (75 mph) to high-end Category 2 status (110 mph) from 1200 GMT Sunday to 1200 GMT Monday. At 1200 GMT Monday, Atsani was located near 15.0°N and 158.0°E, moving to the northwest at about 7 mph. Having completed a well-predicted turn toward the northwest, Atsani should continue heading in that direction over the next several days, with a gradual increase in forward speed and at least gradual strengthening until at least Thursday. The latest JTWC outlook has Atsani peaking in tandem with Goni at 1200 GMT Thursday, both with sustained winds of around 150 mph. Japan will need to watch Atsani closely, as any delay in recurvature beyond the 5-day period would increase the potential risk.

Will the Fujiwhara effect influence the twin typhoons?
Given how close they appear on satellite, a sharp-eyed observer might wonder if Goni and Atsani will be influenced by the Fujiwhara effect, where two closely spaced hurricanes or typhoons begin rotating around a point midway between the two. In a website on the Fujiwhara effect, the Hong Kong Observatory explains that two tropical cyclones need to be located within at least 1350 km in order for the effect to be a major factor. Goni and Atsani are currently about 2000 km (1250 miles) apart, and their projected tracks only increase that distance, so the two typhoons will most likely remain free agents.

Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

THIS IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT


ALERT ATCF MIL 96X XXX 150818060000
2015081806
10.5 325.4
12.2 319.4
150
10.4 325.4
181400
1508181400
1
WTNT21 KNGU 181400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 035.8W TO 11.3N 041.8W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 600NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

RMKS/ 2. INVEST 96L IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. A SURFACE CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN METSAT IMAGERY NEAR
9.5N 034.4W AT 18/06Z. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTESIFICATION
OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 191245Z.//
9615081500 112N 172W 20
9615081506 107N 203W 20
9615081512 104N 217W 20
9615081518 102N 230W 20
9615081600 101N 244W 20
9615081606 100N 257W 20
9615081612 100N 270W 20
9615081618 100N 283W 25
9615081700 98N 294W 25
9615081706 97N 304W 25
9615081712 98N 314W 25
9615081718 100N 325W 25
9615081800 103N 338W 25
9615081806 104N 346W 25

1002. Dakster
Quoting 987. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

very humid here rain soon yesterdays feel like temp was 103 today may cool off too a 100 real feel after rains this am

That sounds terrible.

Where is Scott saying 96L will go and what is he predicting?
1003. barbamz

Click to get the loop. (This is the latest, Eric Blake has tweetet). Source for everyone is here.


Latest microwave of 96L, from the same site.

I hope everyone has a nice morning!
181405Z AUG 15
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NLMC/OVLY2/0087/AUG
OVLY/TCFA/181400Z4/AUG/1OF1/TCFA AL9615/METOC
LINE/2//G/103000N4/0343600W6/121200N6/0403600W3
LINE/2//G/124800N5/0335400W5/080000N8/0352400W4
LINE/2//G/080000N8/0352400W4/094800N1/0412400W1
LINE/2//G/094800N1/0412400W1/143000N8/0395400W1
LINE/2//G/143000N8/0395400W1/124800N5/0335400W5
TEXT/20//G/070000N7/0373600W9/TCFA AL9615
TEXT/20//G/060000N6/0373600W9/VALID UNTIL 191400Z
TEXT/20//G/050000N5/0373600W9/WINDS: 25-30 KTS
TEXT/20//G/040000N4/0373600W9/MVG: W AT 12 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT


Warning, warning 96L dangerous dust nearby. Proceed with caution.
1007. ricderr
so...looking at the models provided by fsu......cmc isn't too bullish on 96l....but is tis the "non tropical" mentioned by the NHC?

1008. ricderr
ecmwf says 96L goes POOF!!!!

1009. ricderr
gfdl keeps it hanging on.........

Quoting 994. wunderkidcayman:



Sorry I haven't had my cup yet for the morning
There's a difference between tracks trending S & W and the storm itself moving S and W .... this is not always clear to everyone.

Tracks have been falling more in line with a WNW movement as opposed to some rather outlandish earlier NW and N predictions from some [e.g. CMC with a N bound track a few iterations ago]; hence a description of them as "moving S and W" [i. e. of where they were before] can be justified. However the actual movement of the system the last 24 hours or so has been slightly N of W, just enough to bring it up past Barbados. Of course if it does continue to develop we are likely to see a more northerly component to that westward track. All of this is pretty standard behaviour for such systems. I guess we haven't tracked enough of them of late for people to know / understand / remember that ....

My point here is the SW vs NW argument is really a quibble over two different aspects of storm movement ....
1013. JRRP
winds are not strong near the buoy 12n 38w
1014. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5 minHace 5 minutos Dale City, VA Ver traducción
Believe 96L does become a tropical storm and heads for Caribbean, but HWRF likely too strong, too far north ( as usual)
1016. ricderr
gfs says it dies a slow death by 120 hrs......

1017. MahFL
Quoting 1013. JRRP:

winds are not strong near the buoy 12n 38w



Yes but that's no where near the center of the system.
1018. JRRP
Quoting 1016. ricderr:

gfs says it dies a slow death by 120 hrs......


FL needs to be on guard for a Strike, lol
Atsani:



Goni:




Link


Have to see what ambiguity analysis reveals.
Quoting 1021. nrtiwlnvragn:




Link


Have to see what ambiguity analysis reveals.


Levi tweeted saying it looks like a tropical depression:

ASCAT pass hot off the presses. 96L looks like a TD.

Link
Any thoughts on activity in BOC?

Quoting 966. wunderkidcayman:



It's not moving WNW
It's moving W



WKC's Compass, only west exists!
Quoting 1002. Dakster:



I said right toward the Greater Antillies from there I said FL should watch it. That's all!
1026. JLPR2
Quoting 1021. nrtiwlnvragn:




Link


Have to see what ambiguity analysis reveals.


Neat, looking better.
Its been awhile since I went to bed and woke up to an almost tropical system, lately everything fell apart.
1027. Drakoen
Based on the ASCAT pass, 96L is a tropical depression.
Quoting 1008. ricderr:

ecmwf says 96L goes POOF!!!!




40knt shear in the Caribbean so 96L will have a tough time there
Quoting 1023. FatPenguin:

Any thoughts on activity in BOC?




It looks like it's raining pretty hard there, that's about it.
Quoting 1027. Drakoen:

Based on the ASCAT pass, 96L is a tropical depression.
yeah its gonna be a go NHC will call it soon
Quoting 1027. Drakoen:

Based on the ASCAT pass, 96L is a tropical depression.
96L is bound to a TD or TS very very soon. NHC is on it!
Quoting 1023. FatPenguin:

Any thoughts on activity in BOC?




Keep an eye on it over the next few days or so - the models were hinting at potential activity previously (mainly the GFS). Plus the models tend not to pick up on development there as often storms can spin up very quickly without any model support sometimes.
may tag it a depression depending on what winds they give it but likely a depression

lets hope its not a fast spin up or could get ugly for someone
Can't wait for the update from Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson..............Suspect that they will conclude that dry air will inhibit intensity issues in the short-term but that the Islands need to keep an eye on the storm (first stop).
Can someone give me a link to the site that shows when they designate a storm? I can't remember the name of it. TIA
1036. JRRP
Quoting 1028. StormTrackerScott:



40knt shear in the Caribbean so 96L will have a tough time there
NE CAR is not so high ATM... more worries about the drift of shear / dust / dry air between 40 and 50 W, imo.
Quoting 1027. Drakoen:

Based on the ASCAT pass, 96L is a tropical depression.


Very likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see an advisory here before too long.
Quoting 1035. wxmobilejim:

Can someone give me a link to the site that shows when they designate a storm? I can't remember the name of it. TIA
Do you mean the TCFA site?


Actually has some 35 knot wind there unless I'm color blind might go straight to TS Status
Quoting 1039. BahaHurican:

Do you mean the TCFA site?

Yes! I believe that is it.
1042. MahFL
Quoting 1028. StormTrackerScott:



40knt shear in the Caribbean so 96L will have a tough time there


Actually just south of the Islands is 20 kts, the 40 is way south :

1043. Grothar
I figured I would post now so the Doc or Mr. Henson would be right on.

NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.
1045. GatorWX
Finally, something to get excited about in the MDR. How about that, naysayers? 96L appears to be on the verge of becoming our next named system. Looks to have walled itself off from the dry air to its north fairly well and is beginning to "get that look". I just can't imagine it lasting too long. Nice to see a wave not traveling 20 mph that has a chance though. At least it may turnout to be a good rain maker for the islands. Looks good atm.

1046 comments...there must be something in the atlantic
TD #4 is here!

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 3m3 minutes ago
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.

NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.
1049. Dakster
Quoting 1043. Grothar:

I figured I would post now so the Doc or Mr. Henson would be right on.




Thanks Gro... There better be a harder turn to the north coming.
TD 4 is coming!
1052. ncstorm
there were some specks of Green in the funktop..

Quoting 1024. typhoonty:




WKC's Compass, only west exists!


Cardinal Direction Degree Direction


N

348.75 - 11.25


NNE

11.25 - 33.75


NE

33.75 - 56.25


ENE

56.25 - 78.75


E

78.75 - 101.25


ESE

101.25 - 123.75


SE

123.75 - 146.25


SSE

146.25 - 168.75


S

168.75 - 191.25


SSW

191.25 - 213.75


SW

213.75 - 236.25


WSW

236.25 - 258.75


W

258.75 - 281.25


WNW

281.25 - 303.75


NW

303.75 - 326.25


NNW

326.25 - 348.75



1054. Grothar
With conditions becoming more favorable, like I said a few days ago, we should have a few more systems pop up.

I'm still looking at the east coast, but all another wave appears to be moving off of Africa. However, this system might move more northerly.


Asking as a novice. What is the "blobette" in the Bay of Campeche?
1056. MahFL
Dry air being pulled south infront of 96L though :

1057. ncstorm
Quoting 1047. CybrTeddy:

TD #4 is here!

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 3m3 minutes ago
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.


and also many postings of the new advisory..
1058. MahFL
It's on the NHC already :

" Special Message from NHC Issued 18 Aug 2015 14:14 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT. "
1059. Grothar
Quoting 1049. Dakster:



Thanks Gro... There better be a harder turn to the north coming.


Don't think so, Dak. But I see a few more popping up. I think I will declare a blobcon and get this waiting over with on 96L.

Are you still down here?
Can't wait to see what the NHC is thinking on their forecast. I worry that 96L is going to struggle into DMIN given recent cloud warming, and I'm sure the NHC shares this concern, but given that ASCAT pass and the Dvroak estimates, it is clearly a TD.
1062. Dakster
Quoting 1059. Grothar:



Don't think so, Dak. But I see a few more popping up. I think I will declare a blobcon and get this waiting over with on 96L.

Are you still down here?



Yup. Back at work too.
1063. Grothar
For information only. These models do not necessarily indicate a system will form, only areas of interest.


Quoting 1061. MAweatherboy1:

Can't wait to see what the NHC is thinking on their forecast. I worry that 96L is going to struggle into DMIN given recent cloud warming, and I'm sure the NHC shares this concern, but given that ASCAT pass and the Dvroak estimates, it is clearly a TD.


A 45 knot peak before weakening is what I'd go with.
1065. ackee
I think the euro 12 run will be fun to watch I think it has been play out exactly like the euro been showing intensity wise









1066. ncstorm
Im going with the HWRF regarding at least a hurricane..this storm is going to keep surprising folks and serving up the crow..
1067. MahFL
Can't wait for "the cone of death"...lol.
G'morning, all!

I see that we now have TD-4!
T.C.F.A
04L/TD/XX/CX
Quoting 1061. MAweatherboy1:

Can't wait to see what the NHC is thinking on their forecast. I worry that 96L is going to struggle into DMIN given recent cloud warming, and I'm sure the NHC shares this concern, but given that ASCAT pass and the Dvroak estimates, it is clearly a TD.


We'll see, dude! They may or may not surprise us.

The suspense builds....LOL!
1071. Grothar
Quoting 1064. CybrTeddy:



A 45 knot peak before weakening is what I'd go with.

I'd agree to that. Slow strengthening for the next 48 hours or so, then slow weakening from there, maybe a remnant low by day 5.
Quoting 1040. stormpetrol:
Actually has some 35 knot wind there unless I'm color blind might go straight to TS Status


The ASCAT-B pass show brown (>35 knots) wind vectors on the east side of the storm, but on the ASCAT-A pass (on your picture) winds are a bit weaker (below 35 knots). Here is the B pass (I put the full pass together):


Quoting 1064. CybrTeddy:



A 45 knot peak before weakening is what I'd go with.


Kyle, thoughts on his prospects for survivability once in the Carib?
1075. JRRP
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2 minHace 2 minutos
So CCKW + TD4 = what @MJVentrice for the next few days? Looks like a good case for me & @philklotzbach @ametsoc paper
atlantic basin wv 96l just entering bottom right of image

I know everyone has their eyes on the Atlantic, but tomorrow I leave for a week-long family vacation in Hawaii. Any thoughts on the approaching system over there?

Quoting 1007. ricderr:

so...looking at the models provided by fsu......cmc isn't too bullish on 96l....but is tis the "non tropical" mentioned by the NHC?


Quoting 1075. JRRP:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2 minHace 2 minutos
So CCKW + TD4 = what @MJVentrice for the next few days? Looks like a good case for me & @philklotzbach @ametsoc paper


Asi que me hechastes para lante anoche, eh? Porque lo hicistes? Que conseguistes con haberlo hecho?
1079. hydrus
The wave in front of T.D.4 may help a little, but unless the depression can wall off that dust, it will remain weak. This should help keep it on a more westerly track also. jmo

Quoting 1061. MAweatherboy1:

Can't wait to see what the NHC is thinking on their forecast. I worry that 96L is going to struggle into DMIN given recent cloud warming, and I'm sure the NHC shares this concern, but given that ASCAT pass and the Dvroak estimates, it is clearly a TD.
I'd say a slow progression up to a 50 knot storm by day 5.  After that who knows, but probably something near the Northern Leewards.

The stronger that circulation becomes the quicker it will detach itself from the ITZC if it hasn't already and will be become susceptible to dry air entrapment.

Take note of the how dry air is increasing in intensity to the storms northwest as the system begins to gain just a bit in latitude...




Quoting 1056. MahFL:

Dry air being pulled south infront of 96L though :



Wow, that particular map makes things look really unfavorable!
Soon to be TD4's best chance would be to track north of Greater Antilles , thus avoiding high shear in S. Carib., but we
have a good while to watch it yet.

And the blog comes alive, lol..at last something to track in the Atlantic..
1083. JRRP
Quoting 1078. Guaricandilla30:



Asi que me hechastes para lante anoche, eh? Porque lo hicistes? Que conseguistes con haberlo hecho?

No se de que carajos hablas así que ubícate... y es todo lo que voy a decir
1084. SLU
Should be tropical storm Danny

1085. Grothar
NCEP and the ECMWF seem to be in close agreement for the time being.

Quoting 1066. ncstorm:

Im going with the HWRF regarding at least a hurricane..this storm is going to keep surprising folks and serving up the crow..


I have to agree I think TD4's small core is going to cause it to strengthen into a hurricane the next few days if not the next 2.
Quoting 1080. ILwthrfan:

I'd say a slow progression up to a 50 knot storm by day 5.  After that who knows, but probably something near the Northern Leewards.

The stronger that circulation becomes the quicker it will detach itself from the ITZC if it hasn't already and will be become susceptible to dry air entrapment.

Take note of the how dry air is increasing in intensity to the storms northwest as the system begins to gain just a bit in latitude...







Day 5 ~15N ~55W
Quoting 1079. hydrus:

The wave in front of T.D.4 may help a little, but unless the depression can wall off that dust, it will remain weak. This should help keep it on a more westerly track also. jmo




Oh my ! Too much dust as usual, BORING!!
1089. Grothar
.
Quoting 1085. Grothar:

NCEP and the ECMWF seem to be in close agreement for the time being.




Maybe a George track
1092. hydrus

Special Message from NHC Issued 18 Aug 2015 14:14 UTC
NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.
Comparison between the 18/1800z HWRF modeled IR for 12z this morning (bottom) with the actual satellite imagery from 12z. The HWRF over-emphasizes the intensity of the convection and organization of the deepest convection, but the overall convective appearance somewhat follows reality. That said, in my opinion I don't think simulated IR imagery is a particularly useful model product when compared with others like MSLP and various height products.

I know with a new depression this is not exciting news but did anyone else notice the NHC has an area highlighted for development in five days by Bermuda?
1096. Drakoen
So I guess those ECMWF ensembles that didn't develop 96L were wrong. That's why we need to consider all the guidance as sometimes the ensembles can have a mind of their own.
Hopefully we won't see something like ISAAC 2012.. Very desappointing weak TS (or strong t-wave lol) when it passed through Guadeloupe.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.


Link
Whoo buddy. NHC is forecasting 85kt at day 5.
Quoting 1083. JRRP:


No se de que carajos hablas así que ubícate... y es todo lo que voy a decir


Como te atreves hablarme en ese tonito? Tu a mi me respetas; te quedo clarisimo, chupacabrita?

En fin, no vuelvas a dirigirme la palabra en este foro!

Buen dia!
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired
enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a
well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt
and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level
outflow is good to the south and fair to the north.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving
west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in
this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in
as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more
westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast
period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little
faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower
GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.

The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
Oh Stewart....
1103. Grothar
1104. hydrus
One can see the heavy dust here.

This blog is about to go absolutely nuts.

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH


1106. JRRP
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
Hi STS, with what looks like a few cold pools of water showing up in the Nino 1.2 region, how will this effect the Super Godzilla Nino that you forecasted for the last 2 years, and what impacts might this have on the Atlantic Hurricane season this year as we are entering the most active part of the season. It looks like the East Pacific Easterlies are picking up due to most of the ocean heat moving west towards the Nino 3.4 region, thus allowing the shear in the Atlantic and Caribbean to subside going forward in time, and thus helping to warm the Atlantic and maybe even bringing up the Vertical Instability up to more normal levels. TD4 could be a harbinger of things to come for the peak of the season and beyond into the end of Oct. and Nov. Could be some exciting times ahead in the near future, and wait till 2016 and a La Nina.
HOLY MOLLY! What an extremely bullish and embolden intensity forecast.

Either the NHC will be dead wrong with this one, or they'll be spot on, right on the money.

Time will tell, I suppose.

#MindBlown
Of course the NHC knows something that we here on the blog don't know yet.100mph peak? Well that's interesting
Quoting 1091. CaribBoy:



Maybe a George track
If 96l is in it for the long haul I would be surprised to see it go out to sea at this point with how strong of high-pressure we've had this year.
1113. SLU
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! And to think many bloggers downcasted it to death.

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
1115. Drakoen
Quoting 1109. washingtonian115:

Of course the NHC knows something that we here on the blog don't know yet.100mph peak? Well that's interesting


Stewart going with HWRF, SHIPS, ECMWF guidance on intensity it seems.
Quoting 1115. Drakoen:



Stewart going with HWRF, SHIPS, ECMWF guidance on intensity it seems.
Stewart doing his thing!
1117. MahFL
Oh...a possible Cat 2 Hurricane.
Quoting 1105. CybrTeddy:

This blog is about to go absolutely nuts.

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH





Dude, that's absolutely incomprehensible; it's unbelievably difficult to believe that such an intensity forecast will pan out. What are they seeing that we aren't?
I assume it's because all other factors are conducive - Low shear and SSTs of 28C. Given the system looks to have a small core, that should mean dry air affects it less than if it were quite a large system. Plus we've seen storms strengthen slowly despite constant entrainments of dry air - Hurricane Arthur from last year, Typhoon Soudelor a few weeks ago and many other examples.
1120. ncstorm
Hurricane you say NHC?

Only those who downcasted the storm will go nuts and will be punching their tickets to the All Crow Buffet..

the rest of us will be over here eating cookies..which were only a few..


Quoting 1115. Drakoen:



Stewart going with HWRF, SHIPS, ECMWF guidance on intensity it seems.
The HWRF has been doing well thus far.The ECMWF is usually not that excited for storms and hasn't been developing waves like that this year so when it takes a interest to something the NHC really takes notice.Funny how the GFS saw this storm 16 days out.It was forecasting a hurricane to approach the islands..we get closer in time stops showing lack of interest...
Quoting 1116. Climate175:

Stewart doing his thing!


I don't understand the Stewart sentiment. He's obviously not as conservative as Avila et. al., but the rest of the forecasting team puts input into the intensity and track estimate. It's a collaborative effort.
1124. MahFL
Lol, TWC is talking about hurricane strikes on the US mainland, nothing like hyping things up.
1125. ncstorm
We have zombies in the MDR as it was stated the MDR was dead..

1126. hydrus
Quoting 1120. ncstorm:

Hurricane you say NHC?

Only those who downcasted the storm will go nuts and will be punching their tickets to the All Crow Buffet..

the rest of us will be over here eating cookies..which were only a few..



I get cookies, although I usually dont eat,em..I said yesterday morning that we may have our first Atlantic hurricane.
1127. AztecCe
I think I just licked my lips a little when I read the nhc's forecast...
Stewart thinks dry air won't be a big issue in light of low shear and warm SSTs. I disagree, especially given mid-level RH values near 30% by the end of day 5, but I doubted formation to begin with, so I guess we'll see.
intensity forecasts are less reliable than models.

Quoting 1113. SLU:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! And to think many bloggers downcasted it to death.

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
Quoting 1105. CybrTeddy:

This blog is about to go absolutely nuts.

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH



Time to batten down the hatches?
1131. MahFL
Shear less than 5 kts, been a long long time since we have seen that.
Intensity forecast reminds me a bit of the first forecast for Isaac in 2012- Stewart issued the first forecast for that one too, and it was far too bullish. And that forecast at least had reasonable support. This one is really a head scratcher to me. I'll be very surprised and impressed if that verifies.
Its a tropical depression now.
1134. hydrus
Quoting 1124. MahFL:

Lol, TWC is talking about hurricane strikes on the US mainland, nothing like hyping things up.
Bit premature to make a call like that.
1135. hydrus
Quoting 1120. ncstorm:

Hurricane you say NHC?

Only those who downcasted the storm will go nuts and will be punching their tickets to the All Crow Buffet..

the rest of us will be over here eating cookies..which were only a few..





You can put me in the crew of those eating crow if this becomes a hurricane. I don't see how that can even be remotely possible. I'm not sure what the NHC is seeing but it will be interesting to see their discussion on this. I don't see this strengthening beyond a TD. Too much dry air.
Oh my!!!!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

Lol ok Danny, stay SOUTH stay SOUTH!!!!
Heat Potential as of today.
1139. 7544
Quoting 1118. Guaricandilla30:



Dude, that's absolutely incomprehensible; it's unbelievably difficult to believe that such an intensity forecast will pan out. What are they seeing that we aren't?


the question is will it head more wnw after day 5 or go due west ?
Quoting 1128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stewart thinks dry air won't be a big issue in light of low shear and warm SSTs. I disagree, especially given mid-level RH values near 30% by the end of day 5, but I doubted formation to begin with, so I guess we'll see.

Your Opinion is good, but JUST SAYING, dont take it personally and yes we will see, he is more experienced obviously so he must see something that we do not.
1141. ncstorm
Quoting 1126. hydrus:

I get cookies, although I usually dont eat,em..I said yesterday morning that we may have our first Atlantic hurricane.


You did Hydrus..Great job!

Someone use to say on here until you only see the blue of the water, no potential system is dead..
1142. hydrus
Quoting 1130. unknowncomic:

Time to batten down the hatches?
Still to early.
So NHC is down with the HRWF, though not quite as strong as it's been forecasting.....
1145. SLU
Quoting 1128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stewart thinks dry air won't be a big issue in light of low shear and warm SSTs. I disagree, especially given mid-level RH values near 30% by the end of day 5, but I doubted formation to begin with, so I guess we'll see.


He was also right with this bullish Gonzalo initial forecast last year too!
Quoting 1141. ncstorm:



You did Hydrus..Great job!

Someone use to say on here until you only see the blue of the water, no potential system is dead..


It hasn't become a hurricane just yet.
There we have it; potentially the first storm to actually enter the Caribbean as a hurricane in several years. Not good for the Caribbean but a noteworthy statistic.
Think I'll book a cruise to the Caribbean.
I'll take my crow for doubting the formation for sure... But I'll hold off on the hurricane forecast crow for now... We've got a 30 min floater up now, still listed as 96L but obviously will change soon.

1150. hydrus
Quoting 1141. ncstorm:



You did Hydrus..Great job!

Someone use to say on here until you only see the blue of the water, no potential system is dead..
Its true. I have seen the most anemic system intensify rapidly once it had the right conditions. one looked like a few clouds, and in twelve hours was a well formed T.D.. Cant remember which tho.
Conditions overall are good for strengthening. Due to its slow movement it has plenty of time to intensify. The forecasted intensity is not out of the question
Quoting 1132. MAweatherboy1:

Intensity forecast reminds me a bit of the first forecast for Isaac in 2012- Stewart issued the first forecast for that one too, and it was far too bullish. And that forecast at least had reasonable support. This one is really a head scratcher to me. I'll be very surprised and impressed if that verifies.


Maybe so, but it'd be in your best interest to not second guess the PhDs down at FIU, dude.

They know what they're doing - Steward included.
1153. ncstorm
Quoting 1136. tampabaymatt:



You can put me in the crew of those eating crow if this becomes a hurricane. I don't see how that can even be remotely possible. I'm not sure what the NHC is seeing but it will be interesting to see their discussion on this. I don't see this strengthening beyond a TD. Too much dry air.


I've had my share of crow here as well..its all good..

I guess time will tell if the dry air is going to impact this storm or not..

1154. Patrap


1155. hydrus
Quoting 1149. MAweatherboy1:

I'll take my crow for doubting the formation for sure... But I'll hold off on the hurricane forecast crow for now... We've got a 30 min floater up now, still listed as 96L but obviously will change soon.


Yep..Outflow does not look that good right now, but that may change a bit.
1156. Patrap
96L

TD 4...

I just love it when some of you amateur forecasters on hear question a Hurricane Specialist and his team that works for the NHC. I'll tend to go with the NHC, right or wrong with their forecast.
1159. Drakoen
Quoting 1128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Stewart thinks dry air won't be a big issue in light of low shear and warm SSTs. I disagree, especially given mid-level RH values near 30% by the end of day 5, but I doubted formation to begin with, so I guess we'll see.


Intensity is more complicated than reading of SHIPS forecasted mid level humidity. If the system develops a formidable inner core and decreases it size, dry air becomes less of an issue. I think the main concern will be the upper level winds as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, with the models featuring some upper level disturbance in the area.
Stewart was my professor at Penn State a few years ago. He knows his stuff!
1161. hydrus
Quoting 1153. ncstorm:



I've had my share of crow here as well..its all good..

I guess time will tell if the dry air is going to impact this storm or not..


I see crow as a learning experience, not just poor fodder..:)
I see Danny wants to redeem himself from this monstrosity...



butterfly.island=magnet.for.these
Quoting 1138. stormchaser19:
Heat Potential as of today.


If this system traverses north of the islands on a NW direction we can see rapid intesification in or near Bahamas.
Quoting 1150. hydrus:

Its true. I have seen the most anemic system intensify rapidly once it had the right conditions. one looked like a few clouds, and in twelve hours was a well formed T.D.. Cant remember which tho.


Chantal of 2013 was rather interesting. I remember one night it literally had no convection and was a naked swirl then 12 hours later it had a good amount of intense thunderstorms right over the center. Certainly interesting forecast for TD4. Let's hope it'll deliver much needed rain to the islands.
Quoting 1113. SLU:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! And to think many bloggers downcasted it to death.

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH


Like they did for Gonzalo lol.

Very interesting forecast for TD4... and very thretening too.
1167. MahFL
Quoting 1156. Patrap:

96L




Not 96L any more, TD4....
1168. hydrus
Quoting 1158. NativeSun:

I just love it when some of you amateur forecasters on hear question a Hurricane Specialist and his team that works for the NHC. I'll tend to go with the NHC, right or wrong with their forecast.
I think very few folks on here would believe that their comments are considered over the NHC. Although one or two just might.
Waiting for Levi's video NOW!!!
Quoting 1160. wxmobilejim:

Stewart was my professor at Penn State a few years ago. He knows his stuff!
Very smart guy.
Good Morning everyone. I see we have Tropical Depression 4.

Will be interesting to see how this detailed track forecast pans out; starts off pushing to the NW (3 day track) then a ridge brings the storms back to the W ( 5 day track). Pretty amazing if this track verifies (in terms of model improvements):


impressive.td
1174. JRRP
and now what
1175. hydrus
Quoting 1156. Patrap:

96L


It gets an A for twist and spin.
1176. VR46L
Quoting 1136. tampabaymatt:



You can put me in the crew of those eating crow if this becomes a hurricane. I don't see how that can even be remotely possible. I'm not sure what the NHC is seeing but it will be interesting to see their discussion on this. I don't see this strengthening beyond a TD. Too much dry air.


This usual downcaster has had a feeling this one will be a proper storm ... low shear , its in a nice belt of moisture .... has the best chance of a good CV Cane since 2012 ....
Quoting 1158. NativeSun:

I just love it when some of you amateur forecasters on hear question a Hurricane Specialist and his team that works for the NHC. I'll tend to go with the NHC, right or wrong with their forecast.

Just to be clear, everybody on the blog knows that the forecasters at the NHC are more credible and reliable than most of us here. At the same time, there is nothing wrong with respectfully disagreeing. Meteorology is an inexact science, and nothing is ever set in stone. It's no different than disagreeing with your local office about the chance for precipitation, disagreeing with the WPC on how much precipitation is forecast, or disagreeing with the SPC on whether a Moderate or High risk should be issued.
Quoting 1159. Drakoen:



Intensity is more complicated than reading of SHIPS forecasted mid level humidity. If the system develops a formidable inner core and decreases it size, dry air becomes less of an issue. I think the main concern will be the upper level winds as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, with the models featuring some upper level disturbance in the area.

The ECMWF it's showing a small system since the beginning.
Quoting 1165. Envoirment:



Chantal of 2013 was rather interesting. I remember one night it literally had no convection and was a naked swirl then 12 hours later it had a good amount of intense thunderstorms right over the center. Certainly interesting forecast for TD4. Let's hope it'll deliver much needed rain to the islands.


Chantal in 2013 was a massive headache.
Quoting 1165. Envoirment:



Chantal of 2013 was rather interesting. I remember one night it literally had no convection and was a naked swirl then 12 hours later it had a good amount of intense thunderstorms right over the center. Certainly interesting forecast for TD4. Let's hope it'll deliver much needed rain to the islands.


First advisory for Chantal 2013 :

INIT 08/0300Z 9.8N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 10.8N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.1N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.6N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 18.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

...
Quoting 1176. VR46L:



This usual downcaster has had a feeling this one will be a proper storm ... low shear , its in a nice belt of moisture .... has the best chance of a good CV Cane since 2012 ....


Edouard and Gonzalo last year would respectfully disagree with you (although neither were really CV storms, they developed from waves that originated from Africa and developed in the MDR).
Quoting 1134. hydrus:

Bit premature to make a call like that.

I'd be more concerned if I was living in the Lesser Antilles right now, I am sure they are taking it seriously though. I really don't know what happens after it. Typically the Caribbean is not very favorable in El Nino years, I just think of poor old Chris.
1184. GatorWX
Wow! Did not expect such an aggressive forecast from NHC.

Small storms can block off dry air better.I remember Felix from 2001 was surrounded by dry air but managed to block it off and became a major.
From local mets in the Tampa Bay area:
ST. PETERSBURG --
The fourth tropical depression has officially formed in the Atlantic Ocean.


"The tropical wave we had been watching in the Eastern Atlantic appears to now have a closed low level circulation," meteorologist Josh Linker said.

Linker said the storm is thousands of miles away and is no threat to Florida.

The storm will be moving west-northwest over the next few days and could become a tropical storm, as conditions are favorable for some strengthening. However, Linker said the storm may not develop much further.

"If it survives its trek toward the Caribbean, the atmosphere is very hostile there so further development is not anticipated," he said.
Quoting 1121. washingtonian115:

The HWRF has been doing well thus far.The ECMWF is usually not that excited for storms and hasn't been developing waves like that this year so when it takes a interest to something the NHC really takes notice.Funny how the GFS saw this storm 16 days out.It was forecasting a hurricane to approach the islands..we get closer in time stops showing lack of interest...
I keep thinking the GFS is getting better at the long range while not improving as much at the medium to short range...
Just for potential verification purposes, but if TD 4 intensifies as the NHC is forecasting, this run of the GFS 10 days out would be pretty accurate.

0z GFS on Aug. 12:

1189. hydrus
Quoting 1183. sporteguy03:


I'd be more concerned if I was living in the Lesser Antilles right now, I am sure they are taking it seriously though. I really don't know what happens after it. Typically the Caribbean is not very favorable in El Nino years, I just think of poor old Chris.
T.C,s are fickle during the formative stages. Even once they develop, they are unpredictable as they are dangerous, even in modern times.
Not the toastiest SST's on approach to the Antilles but warm enough to sustain a storm (shear and sty air limitations notwithstanding):
 


High Temperatures will run close to seasonal averages the rest of the week. Night and morning low clouds will occur along the coast and over the valleys, otherwise mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail this week.

Back to normal this week from our in some cases in Soo Cal record setting hot weather.
For the record, I'll eat all the crow in the world if it means we get a substantial hurricane in the deep tropics east of the islands. It's been several years since one of those.
Quoting 1136. tampabaymatt:



You can put me in the crew of those eating crow if this becomes a hurricane. I don't see how that can even be remotely possible. I'm not sure what the NHC is seeing but it will be interesting to see their discussion on this. I don't see this strengthening beyond a TD. Too much dry air.


I agree. All along I've thought this would develop but not much more than a moderate ts (at least in the Atlantic). Vertical instability still sucks and that has been the problem for a couple of years. I guess it doesn't matter right now.

Having said that, it isn't a hurricane yet so we'll see. Folks in the NE Caribbean need to pay attention.
1195. junie1
Time to get prepared..Its all over the news here on my island could be seeing a hurricane roaring through the islands
Quoting 1193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

For the record, I'll eat all the crow in the world if it means we get a substantial hurricane in the deep tropics east of the islands. It's been several years since one of those.


The last one I can recall that exceeded Category 1 status east of the islands was Julia in 2010.
Quoting 1193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

For the record, I'll eat all the crow in the world if it means we get a substantial hurricane in the deep tropics east of the islands. It's been several years since one of those.


That will be the story of the year if this does come to pass in an El Nino year after three straight past enso neutral seasons with no hurricanes (struggling tropical storms) going into the Caribbean.................
Quoting 1194. Bucsboltsfan:



I agree. All along I've thought this would develop but not much more than a moderate ts (at least in the Atlantic). Vertical instability still sucks and that has been the problem for a couple of years. I guess it doesn't matter right now.

Having said that, it isn't a hurricane yet so we'll see. Folks in the NE Caribbean need to pay attention.


I was surprised to see Bay News 9 already declare this was no threat to FL. That's a pretty bold statement to make at this point in time.
Quoting 1184. GatorWX:

Wow! Did not expect such an aggressive forecast from NHC.


In view of the bananas HWRF, I consider the forecast "middle of the road," halfway between TS and Cat 4. This forecast shows respect for nature as seasoned TC forecasters must with a system that has already defied the odds.

The track's dogleg to the left is reasonable, given the expected ridging. Shear is the big question mark (add: in my mind.;)).
Quoting 1150. hydrus:

Its true. I have seen the most anemic system intensify rapidly once it had the right conditions. one looked like a few clouds, and in twelve hours was a well formed T.D.. Cant remember which tho.
It's happened more than oncet....

Quoting 1159. Drakoen:



Intensity is more complicated than reading of SHIPS forecasted mid level humidity. If the system develops a formidable inner core and decreases it size, dry air becomes less of an issue. I think the main concern will be the upper level winds as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, with the models featuring some upper level disturbance in the area.
I also am curious about how well it'll hold together past 55W .... several of the models have portrayed serious disruption of whatever form they gave TD 4 .... even, IIRC, the HRWF ....
Quoting 1176. VR46L:



This usual downcaster has had a feeling this one will be a proper storm ... low shear , its in a nice belt of moisture .... has the best chance of a good CV Cane since 2012 ....


Why is he a downcaster? Are you a Hypecaster? How many storms are you on so far this year...14 by now? Not saying you are or not.. but usual people who call people "Downcasters" are the ones that think every disturbance that comes off africa or from a dying front willl be a TD or TS or looks at models over a week out. TD 4 has a 95% chance to become a TS within the next 12-24hrs. It's a 50% chance to be a Hurricane in 3 days. Right now, after about 5 days, it's too far out to tell if Windshear will be a factor. Right now it's about a 60% chance this will be still a hurricane once it enters the carribean but unsure of what conditions lay ahead.
Quoting 1188. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Just for potential verification purposes, but if TD 4 intensifies as the NHC is forecasting, this run of the GFS 10 days out would be pretty accurate.

0z GFS on Aug. 12:


I agree Baha.Model is loosing its head.
GFS had this storm 16 days out and was developing it all the way until about a few days ago (inconsistent with intensity of course) but the idea was there for "Danny" to pay a visit to the islands as a strong T.S or weak hurricane.Maybe the GFS will come around to the idea again...
TD 4 is a real threat to the Leeward Islands and it looks like it will be a Hurricane before it gets there.

Link
1204. Dakster
barefoot - after seeing that, now I am starting to get a little worried...

Cat 3 in the Box wouldn't be a good thing.
Quoting 1203. meteorologistkidFL:

TD 4 is a real threat to the Leeward Islands and it looks like it will be a Hurricane before it gets there.

Link
someone is going to have a bad day when and where is yet to be seen or decided upon
1206. ackee
If pre danny reach leeward has hurrcane 2 I think this system will fight and could surprise many in next couple of days I think the euro and hwrf has very good handle on this system
Quoting 1201. scottsvb:



Why is he a downcaster? Are you a Hypecaster? How many storms are you on so far this year...14 by now? Not saying you are or not.. but usual people who call people "Downcasters" are the ones that think every disturbance that comes off africa or from a dying front willl be a TD or TS or looks at models over a week out. TD 4 has a 95% chance to become a TS within the next 12-24hrs. It's a 50% chance to be a Hurricane in 3 days. Right now, after about 5 days, it's too far out to tell if Windshear will be a factor. Right now it's about a 60% chance this will be still a hurricane once it enters the carribean but unsure of what conditions lay ahead.
I think u are misunderstanding her post she is the downcaster but is sayin it may have a real shot this time without downcasting read the comments she is a nice lady be nice back that's all I ask
Lots of dry air is going to infuse into the western Quad in the short term but Stewart is confident that it will mix-out in the longer term:


1209. Patrap
TD 4 is fairly well insulated from any dry air entrainment currently.




Quoting 1195. junie1:

Time to get prepared..Its all over the news here on my island could be seeing a hurricane roaring through the islands
Do you want to tell your island name?
Quoting 1204. Dakster:

barefoot - after seeing that, now I am starting to get a little worried...

Cat 3 in the Box wouldn't be a good thing.
Yeah. Good to keep those "Cat boxes" clean.
;)

In my experience, a little worry can be good motivation to prep. Are you in AK now or FL?
1211. VR46L
Quoting 1201. scottsvb:



Why is he a downcaster? Are you a Hypecaster? How many storms are you on so far this year...14 by now? Not saying you are or not.. but usual people who call people "Downcasters" are the ones that think every disturbance that comes off africa or from a dying front willl be a TD or TS or looks at models over a week out. TD 4 has a 95% chance to become a TS within the next 12-24hrs. It's a 50% chance to be a Hurricane in 3 days. Right now, after about 5 days, it's too far out to tell if Windshear will be a factor. Right now it's about a 60% chance this will be still a hurricane once it enters the carribean but unsure of what conditions lay ahead.


LMAO ..... I guess you dont know me .... And you totally misinterpreted what I said .... I was calling myself a downcaster ...... all the regs know that




Haven't seen one of these in a while
1213. Patrap
Gee'
LoL
Good morning everyone.

About time that some cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic. Only so long that we could go before having a formidable tropical cyclone.
Quoting 1164. rmbjoe1954:



If this system traverses north of the islands on a NW direction we can see rapid intesification in or near Bahamas.
These are NOT words I want to be hearing any time this season ...

Quoting 1185. washingtonian115:

Small storms can block off dry air better.I remember Felix from 2001 was surrounded by dry air but managed to block it off and became a major.
01 or 07?
Quoting 1197. weathermanwannabe:



That will be the story of the year if this does come to pass in an El Nino year after three straight past enso neutral seasons with no hurricanes (struggling tropical storms) going into the Caribbean.................
Unfortunately I recall numerous comments over the last 6 weeks reminding everyone of Andrew .... :o/
I can see the blog hasn't changed a bit since the last time I was on LOL. Everyone always seems to be some sort of "caster."
Quoting 1214. MiamiHurricanes09:

Good morning everyone.

About time that some cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic. Only so long that we could go before having a formidable tropical cyclone.


MH09 sighting!
Most impressive current feature of 96L at the moment, IMHO, is how it is pulling in moisture from the ITCZ behind it and pulling in the moisture underneath it that is starting to form in the proto-bands to the South:

Quoting 1176. VR46L:



This usual downcaster has had a feeling this one will be a proper storm ... low shear , its in a nice belt of moisture .... has the best chance of a good CV Cane since 2012 ....
Don't feel bad, I had an eerie feeling about this yesterday, but even before that this system has already claimed lives when it was still over Africa. I can't remember which countries, but someone posted an article about that.
Quoting 1201. scottsvb:



Why is he a downcaster? Are you a Hypecaster? How many storms are you on so far this year...14 by now? Not saying you are or not.. but usual people who call people "Downcasters" are the ones that think every disturbance that comes off africa or from a dying front willl be a TD or TS or looks at models over a week out. TD 4 has a 95% chance to become a TS within the next 12-24hrs. It's a 50% chance to be a Hurricane in 3 days. Right now, after about 5 days, it's too far out to tell if Windshear will be a factor. Right now it's about a 60% chance this will be still a hurricane once it enters the carribean but unsure of what conditions lay ahead.
Oh .... my ....
Where is a facepalm img when u need one ...
wow we have Tropical Depression Four i was at the store before!!
This year ends with a "5" and we all know how those years turn out for someone along the atlantic coast...
Quoting 1212. JrWeathermanFL:





Haven't seen one of these in a while
I think that this will be a storm soon, if not already. I think this will be like Isaac back in 2012.
Quoting 1201. scottsvb:



Why is he a downcaster? Are you a Hypecaster? How many storms are you on so far this year...14 by now? Not saying you are or not.. but usual people who call people "Downcasters" are the ones that think every disturbance that comes off africa or from a dying front willl be a TD or TS or looks at models over a week out. TD 4 has a 95% chance to become a TS within the next 12-24hrs. It's a 50% chance to be a Hurricane in 3 days. Right now, after about 5 days, it's too far out to tell if Windshear will be a factor. Right now it's about a 60% chance this will be still a hurricane once it enters the carribean but unsure of what conditions lay ahead.



VR46L was referencing herself.
Quoting 1216. MiamiHurricanes09:

I can see the blog hasn't changed a bit since the last time I was on LOL. Everyone always seems to be some sort of "caster."

Blogcaster!
Blog moving too fast for me at the moment...........Gonna take a break....................... :)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

The low pressure system that has been moving westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired
enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a
well-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt
and greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level
outflow is good to the south and fair to the north.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving
west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in
this ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in
as a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more
westward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast
period. The official forecast track lies close to but a little
faster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower
GFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.

The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
model IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH


wow winds 100 mph
You can always tell how much a tropical system strengthened by how many comments the blog gets overnight.

Quoting 1209. Patrap:

TD 4 is fairly well insulated from any dry air entrainment currently.







TD 4, you make us proud!
1230. hydrus
Quoting 1209. Patrap:

TD 4 is fairly well insulated from any dry air entrainment currently.





I beginning to wonder if it likes it..:)

(EXCERPT)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

"The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the
cyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening
throughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be
occasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the
Saharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.
However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,
the convective structure is expected to steadily increase in
organization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out."
1232. Drakoen
Quoting 1220. BahaHurican:

Oh .... my ....
Where is a facepalm img when u need one ...


Not much has changed over the years with that user LOL.
Quoting 1211. VR46L:



LMAO ..... I guess you dont know me .... And you totally misinterpreted what I said .... I was calling myself a downcaster ...... all the regs know that


:) ok
Quoting 1214. MiamiHurricanes09:

Good morning everyone.

About time that some cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic. Only so long that we could go before having a formidable tropical cyclone.
. .... or lose our collective freaking minds ....
Felix from 2001 Baha and I should also mention the wave that produced Felix in 2007 managed to protect it's self from dust.
1236. Patrap
Be careful what one roots for.


When the word does come down to evacuate. Do it.

Wait till the end of this video from August 29th,2005.

He will tell you in His own words.


Semper Fi'






Quoting 1232. Drakoen:



Not much has changed over the years with that user LOL.


Or everyone else on here... no one learns from the past
1238. MahFL
Quoting 1219. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Don't feel bad, I had an eerie feeling about this yesterday, but even before that this system has already claimed lives when it was still over Africa. I can't remember which countries, but someone posted an article about that.


Sudan I beleive :

Sudan floods
1239. IDTH
Still embedded in the monsoon trough, it has to strengthen significantly for the intensity forecast to come true, because it won't last one second in those trade winds if it isn't significantly developed, but the one thing it has, is a lot of time due to it's very slow movement, which is scary.
1240. 900MB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

.....And these guys are usually conservative. Wowsa!
Quoting 1218. weathermanwannabe:

Most impressive current feature of 96L at the moment, IMHO, is how it is pulling in moisture from the ITCZ behind it and pulling in the moisture underneath it that is starting to form in the proto-bands to the South:


Looks like the Windwards may get their share of rain from the Twave that's been moistening the track for TD4 .... If the future Danny could just tone it down a bit as it moves through, this could be a "win-win" for everyone out there .....
LOL Huracan!


"You can always tell how much a tropical system strengthened by how many comments the blog gets overnight."


Quoting 1221. hurricanes2018:

wow we have Tropical Depression Four i was at the store before!!
Geez, dude, how could you miss this? You've been on this from day one ....
:o)
For pleasure reading at a convenient time, may also be relevant to what we are seeing with TD 4:

Abstract: Cloud nuclei properties in the Saharan Air Layer close to the source

Quoting 1240. 900MB:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

.....And these guys are usually conservative. Wowsa!

Yes they are and when the kids get out of school today this "Blog"
will go crazy and it might even hit 3 pages a minute..... lol

Taco :o)
Quoting 1245. taco2me61:


Yes they are and when the kids get out of school today this "Blog"
will go crazy and it might even hit 3 pages a minute..... lol

Taco :o)


The kids are already here! LOL


This is probably the best looking Atlantic depression in years! Finally something interesting in the Atlantic to track. As long as something strange doesn't happen, this might be the first substantial threat to the Leeward islands in years...
Quoting 1177. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just to be clear, everybody on the blog knows that the forecasters at the NHC are more credible and reliable than most of us here. At the same time, there is nothing wrong with respectfully disagreeing. Meteorology is an inexact science, and nothing is ever set in stone. It's no different than disagreeing with your local office about the chance for precipitation, disagreeing with the WPC on how much precipitation is forecast, or disagreeing with the SPC on whether a Moderate or High risk should be issued.
Hi Tropical, their is nothing wrong with challenging a forecaster who has a lot more knowledge, experience and equipment at his disposal, after all they could be wrong, as they are trying to forecast a very powerful weather system and as of this date in time, it's far from an exact science. But I bet more times then not the amateur forecaster will be wrong, so this is why I will always trust the so called experts.
Quoting 1246. scottsvb:



The kids are already here! LOL


lol

Taco :o)
it's better to just track the canes... then you notice how you can be led far off one or the other, and even surprise yourself. i don't trust forecast tracks much more out of 48hrs, let alone intensity.

Quoting 1226. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Blogcaster!
Quoting 1222. swflurker:

F5 keys will be on sale later today.
1253. Patrap
Seems the New wunderground show come next Monday on TWC from 5-7 CDT will have some Mojo to talk about.

Coolio'
Quoting 1233. scottsvb:



:) ok
Thanks for the "sonrisa", scott .... :o)

Quoting 1235. washingtonian115:

Felix from 2001 Baha and I should also mention the wave that produced Felix in 2007 managed to protect it's self from dust.

Thanks for the facepalm and the info ... was thinking maybe 07 because it also was a lowriding system, and that was one factor that enabled it to survive ....
1255. Patrap
I'm glad some who have been away remembered their passwords here.

Ack!
1256. MahFL
Quoting 1247. Jedkins01:

This is probably the best looking Atlantic depression in years! Finally something interesting in the Atlantic to track. As long as something strange doesn't happen, this might be the first substantial threat to the Leeward islands in years...


And shear is less than 5kts, 5 !
1257. 900MB
Quoting 1218. weathermanwannabe:

Most impressive current feature of 96L at the moment, IMHO, is how it is pulling in moisture from the ITCZ behind it and pulling in the moisture underneath it that is starting to form in the proto-bands to the South:




The most impressive thing to me is that the NHC has a 100mph Cape Verde forecast 6 days out!!! This is rare. It is usually all of us hyping and speculating and quite often ahead of the NHC, but not with this one. Kinda scary, really.
Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.
1261. Patrap
TD4 1515UTC Viz



Quoting 1247. Jedkins01:



This is probably the best looking Atlantic depression in years! Finally something interesting in the Atlantic to track. As long as something strange doesn't happen, this might be the first substantial threat to the Leeward islands in years...


Hey Jedkins, looking long term. A trough has been pretty well established on the east coast for much of the summer (hence our persistent west wind pattern), do you see any long term pattern change that could influence the future Danny?
Quoting 1259. StormTrackerScott:

Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.


Scott, it's not the time for semantics nor theatrics, as the blog is moving at a million miles per hour, thanks to TS Danny.
1265. nash36
Quoting 1240. 900MB:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

.....And these guys are usually conservative. Wowsa!


It's after Day 5 where I am curious. Many of the models (up to this point), show a crash and burn scenario as Danny gets to the CB. It depends on the route Danny decides to take. It has a much better chance at survival going N through the islands.
1266. Patrap
It could have been a test bann STS.

It happens?
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 46m46 minutes ago
If the NHC forecast verifies, TD 4 would be the farthest south Atlantic #hurricane to form since Tomas 2010 #climate


This is Danny now I suspect.

T.D 4 is dropping off the excess weight and closing off that small donut hole in the middle (it's becoming smaller).T.D 4 has already killed 20 in Africa hopefully it doesn't add more to the list when it becomes "Danny"
1269. Thrawst
Quoting 1243. BahaHurican:

Geez, dude, how could you miss this? You've been on this from day one ....
:o)


Hi Baha! Get the boards out! ;)

In other news, I'm not sure you guys know yet so pardon, but TD-4 has formed! ;)
1270. fmbill
Is that a pinhole eye? LOL!
1271. Patrap
I'm gonna go with the BOC becoming "Danny" since were posting names to TD's already.

Quoting 1260. Guaricandilla30:



My, my, my - take a look at what the cat dragged! It's none other BRICKELL, in his prime and glory.


And JFV with a new vulgar name that he managed to slip past the Mods
Quoting 1236. Patrap:

Be careful what one roots for.


When the word does come down to evacuate. Do it.

Wait till the end of this video from August 29th,2005.

He will tell you in His own words.


Semper Fi'







Said "be careful what you wish for" in the blog last week.... while it is always exciting to observe cyclogenesis in the ATL, it's always also a double-edged sword ... right now it's fun and laughs.... 5 - 10 days from now it's entirely possible somebody will be feeling the pain ... and that somebody could easily be me.

Quoting 1237. scottsvb:



Or everyone else on here... no one learns from the past
Oh, I think we've all learned some stuff ... but it's also easy to tease and forget that .... lol ... it's all good ....
Quoting 1272. ChillinInTheKeys:



And JFV with a new vulgar name that he managed to slip past the Mods
I think we all knew..just wanted to see how fast this handle would crash and burn...
1277. Patrap
TD 4

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 10:36:36 N Lon : 36:32:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1013.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : -17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -49.3C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.8 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 1267. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 46m46 minutes ago
If the NHC forecast verifies, TD 4 would be the farthest south Atlantic #hurricane to form since Tomas 2010 #climate


This is Danny now I suspect.




Not yet, but by this evening its almost a given.
Atlantic has proven once again not to underestimate it.
Quoting 1259. StormTrackerScott:

Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.


I'm guessing because you have been saying that the Atlantic mdr is shut down due to Jurassicc El Niño and now Danny is about to be born. I guess they are banning for us being wrong:).
1281. ncstorm
Remind me but is it when a storm is nearing 60W that HH then fly out to a system in central atlantic?
maybe a tropical storm by 11pm tonight
Quoting 1281. ncstorm:

Remind me but is it when a storm is nearing 60W that HH then fly out to a system in central atlantic?


I think it's 55W, but I could be mistaken.
1284. Patrap
Quoting 1277. Patrap:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1013.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0


1013 mb? That's a bit higher than I expected, I woulda guessed 1008-1010.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago
HWRF 06z developed #04L into a very small hurricane, perhaps only way to survive usual volatile wind shear
1287. hydrus
Quoting 1271. Patrap:

I'm gonna go with the BOC becoming "Danny" since were posting names to TD's already.


Wont have much time, but stranger things have happened. The water there is very warm.
1288. ncstorm
Quoting 1283. CybrTeddy:



I think it's 55W, but I could be mistaken.


thanks
1289. Patrap
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181338
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT TUE 18 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

Darkened down for a bit, may be a new round of color blooming it appears. Did this yesterday..
1291. nash36
Quoting 1281. ncstorm:

Remind me but is it when a storm is nearing 60W that HH then fly out to a system in central atlantic?


I believe it's 55W.
Quoting 1260. Guaricandilla30:



My, my, my - take a look at what the cat dragged! It's none other than BRICKELL, in his prime and glory.
Indeed it is. But I moved from Brickell to Coral Gables so you're gonna have to change my name :)
Quoting 1283. CybrTeddy:



I think it's 55W, but I could be mistaken.
no 55 it is triple nickel really 55.5 w
1294. Patrap
Im-pressive'

Soudelor made landfall in Taiwan last week, the winds were strong enough to lift the nose of a Boeing 747.


Will note that in more active years (non El Nino with a healthier looking ITCZ), that we sometimes get a CV storm-cluster during the peak period. This looks like an isolated one and not a cluster and quite the surprise for mid-August:


1296. hydrus
Quoting 1261. Patrap:

TD4 1515UTC Viz




uh oh..angry cotton loook...time to get the shears..
Quoting 1265. nash36:



It's after Day 5 where I am curious. Many of the models (up to this point), show a crash and burn scenario as Danny gets to the CB. It depends on the route Danny decides to take. It has a much better chance at survival going N through the islands.


True, but the models predicting a crash and burn are not showing it strengthening beyond 50 knots at the most. The issue will become with the trade winds near the Caribbean. If 04L is a full fledged hurricane, the accelerating trade winds won't really have that much of an impact on it, see Dean in 2007. The models seem to be showing 04L opening up into a wave due to these trade winds and then, in the ECMWF's case, dying as it hits Hispaniola.

What 04L/Danny does in the next 48-72 hours is absolutely critical.
Quoting 1259. StormTrackerScott:

Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.
Huh??? You were on just an hour or two ago .... what happened???
Quoting 1265. nash36:



It's after Day 5 where I am curious. Many of the models (up to this point), show a crash and burn scenario as Danny gets to the CB. It depends on the route Danny decides to take. It has a much better chance at survival going N through the islands.
Same qtn I asked earlier .... are we going to see the end of Danny by day 7.... or at least the hobbling?
Quoting 1269. Thrawst:



Hi Baha! Get the boards out! ;)

In other news, I'm not sure you guys know yet so pardon, but TD-4 has formed! ;)
U joking, but I seriously took a look at my shutters yesterday ..... don't want any, but just in case .... :o)
Quoting 1283. CybrTeddy:



I think it's 55W, but I could be mistaken.


Do they have a plane down in the Caribbean or will they transfer one down (maybe happening now?)?
1300. MahFL
Quoting 1281. ncstorm:

Remind me but is it when a storm is nearing 60W that HH then fly out to a system in central atlantic?

48 to 50, depends on how serious the storm looks.
1302. 900MB
Quoting 1218. weathermanwannabe:

Most impressive current feature of 96L at the moment, IMHO, is how it is pulling in moisture from the ITCZ behind it and pulling in the moisture underneath it that is starting to form in the proto-bands to the South:




It will be interesting to see how the wave in front of it impacts the dry air. Perhaps moistens it a little and clears the path.
Quoting 1299. Bucsboltsfan:



Do they have a plane down in the Caribbean or will they transfer one down (maybe happening now?)?


They usually do have a plane stationed down there during hurricane season.
1304. K8eCane
It looks like all is well and good with TD 4 until it gets to about 55/60 lat and then it will more than likely encounter some obstacles. How it will hold up to these obstacles is really one for Madam FortuneTeller. The best we have besides that right now is Stewart.
Quoting 1283. CybrTeddy:



I think it's 55W, but I could be mistaken.


52.5


5.5.1.3.1.
1306. JRRP

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1 minHace 1 minuto Ver traducción
NASA GEOS-5 shows Saharan dust layer leaving TD 04L behind in a more favorable environment heading west
1307. Patrap
AFB Keesler HH usually send 2 planes to St. Croix for Atlantic invests and such.

They will likely fly out soon for that.

Nothing in the POD currently though.

Quoting 1301. Thrawst:



Sorry off topic. You go to UM? I do lol
Hopefully next year. Still in high school at the moment lol.
Quoting 1302. 900MB:



It will be interesting to see how the wave in front of it impacts the dry air. Perhaps moistens it a little and clears the path.


It appeared it was clearing out in front, being pushed? Now I see some dry creeping in over top
Cyclogenesis between Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil.

1311. Thrawst
Quoting 1308. MiamiHurricanes09:

Hopefully next year. Still in high school at the moment lol.


nice! Good luck!

Outflow associated with TD-4 is improving.
1312. barbamz
Quoting 1306. JRRP:


Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 1 minHace 1 minuto Ver traducci%uFFFDn
NASA GEOS-5 shows Saharan dust layer leaving TD 04L behind in a more favorable environment heading west


TD04 a little earlier today caught by Terra-Satellite. Shows the dust to its north.
Source.
1313. junie1
Quoting 1210. Barefootontherocks:

Do you want to tell your island name?Yeah. Good to keep those "Cat boxes" clean.
;)

In my experience, a little worry can be good motivation to prep. Are you in AK now or FL?
Im in St.thomas in the virgin islands Emergency management agency is already on the ball and taking notice
Now we wait for the new model runs...
Quoting 1259. StormTrackerScott:

Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.
Huh??? You were on just an hour or two ago .... what happened???
Quoting 1265. nash36:



It's after Day 5 where I am curious. Many of the models (up to this point), show a crash and burn scenario as Danny gets to the CB. It depends on the route Danny decides to take. It has a much better chance at survival going N through the islands.
Same qtn I asked earlier .... are we going to see the end of Danny by day 7.... or at least the hobbling?
Quoting 1269. Thrawst:



Hi Baha! Get the boards out! ;)

In other news, I'm not sure you guys know yet so pardon, but TD-4 has formed! ;)
U joking, but I seriously took a look at my shutters yesterday ..... don't want any, but just in case .... :o)
So I'm assuming the usual "faster intensification – more poleward" track scenario applies to 04L?
Quoting 1308. MiamiHurricanes09:

Hopefully next year. Still in high school at the moment lol.


Thinking about Embry Riddle.

But I have a few years before I get to college.
Quoting 1312. barbamz:



TD04 a little earlier today caught by Terra-Satellite.
Wow that shows a nice band to his north that is protecting his core from dry air. 

His south band is essentially the ITCZ.

I still have to see it to believe it that this becomes a 90 knot hurricane by day 5.
1319. Gearsts
What is wrong with the GFS?
Quoting 1310. pablosyn:

Cyclogenesis between Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil.


Has it cooled off in Brazil, pablo?


Quoting 1316. MiamiHurricanes09:

So I'm assuming the usual "faster intensification – more poleward" track scenario applies to 04L?
Not really, ridge to his north is expected to strengthen and move in tandem with 04L essentially trumping that rule temporally.   Past day 5 that could be a different story.
1322. Patrap
Quoting 1198. tampabaymatt:



I was surprised to see Bay News 9 already declare this was no threat to FL. That's a pretty bold statement to make at this point in time.


If they said "no threat to Florida for now" then it would be a smart, responsible way of reducing hype because it is in fact too far out to be any threat to Florida or anywhere in the U.S. right now. But if they said it would never be a threat, that is an entirely different story. Such a statement would be irresponsible.
1324. JRRP
Quoting 1312. barbamz:



TD04 a little earlier today caught by Terra-Satellite. Shows the dust to its north.

yeah but the forecast looks like will be less dust 3-4 days
1325. Patrap
1326. Gearsts
Quoting 1306. JRRP:


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1 minHace 1 minuto Ver traducción
NASA GEOS-5 shows Saharan dust layer leaving TD 04L behind in a more favorable environment heading west
I don't want to spam the blog with the cat gif but damn this is getting interesting. 7 days of very little sleep i guess.
Quoting 1259. StormTrackerScott:

Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.
You probably ignored the 'rules of the road'. It wasn't a mistake. Cheers.
The three current players in the global tropics from best looking to incipient:

Atsani:



Goni:



TD4:


Let's hope for the Caribbean that TD4 never looks anything like the other two downstream.
Outflow associated with TD-4 is improving maybe that way the national hurricane center got winds up to 100 mph in fives days
48 hrs out

1331. hydrus
Brownsville,TX radar.

Quoting 1326. Gearsts:

I don't want to spam the blog with the cat gif but damn this is getting interesting. 7 days of very little sleep i guess.
Just prepaer in the mean time.Don't cause panic but inform family and friends.Sort of like a heads up "we may have something down the road".
1333. JRRP
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2 minHace 2 minutos
Thru 5-days, most recent GFS 12z does not spin-up 04L further.
1334. Gearsts
Carlie Buccola ‏@WeatherGirlCB 2h2 hours ago
Weather nerds and their reaction to TD4
Quoting 1318. ILwthrfan:

Wow that shows a nice band to his north that is protecting his core from dry air. 

His south band is essentially the ITCZ.

I still have to see it to believe it that this becomes a 90 knot hurricane by day 5.



Wind shear is expected to remain low during the forecast period, so it's a reasonable forecast. But remember that forecasting intensity is difficult. The range of possibility is effectively anywhere from degeneration to a major hurricane.
Quoting 1319. Gearsts:

What is wrong with the GFS?

Remember 12z is running off of 8 am data, before 96L was declared tropical depression 4, it would be wise to wait for the 18z model suites to get a better initialization.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 10:37:50 N Lon : 36:38:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1013.0mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 3.5

Center Temp : -52.1C Cloud Region Temp : -47.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.9 degrees

************************************************* ***
On this day of August 18, 1983 during an El Nino, Hurricane Alicia hit the Upper TX Coast. The only major storm for the Atlantic season.
I think we will have Danny at the next advisory.
1340. hydrus
Quoting 1316. MiamiHurricanes09:

So I'm assuming the usual "faster intensification – more poleward" track scenario applies to 04L?
Not until it reaches around 65 or 70 degrees west.
Could potentially be a dangerous situation for the islands imo. Depends on when it decides to make a NNW-NW direction. Regardless, its nice to be able to track a system in the MDR. The peak of the season is upon us.



maybe a tropical storm by tonight
There's currently some westerly shear near the lesser antilles. TD-4 looks like it has some pretty good outflow too. Like some other people said, the dry air is staying north for now.
1345. Gearsts
Quoting 1332. washingtonian115:

Just prepaer in the mean time.Don't cause panic but inform family and friends.Sort of like a heads up "we may have something down the road".
I can't do that because i turn in to CaribBoy#2 when there's a tropical system around my area.
1346. barbamz
Quoting 1324. JRRP:


yeah but the forecast looks like will be less dust 3-4 days

Yes, could be lifting north a bit Aug 22/23:

Source for more frames and loop.
Quoting 1341. CapeCoralWx:

Could potentially be a dangerous situation for the islands imo. Depends on when it decides to make a NNW-NW direction. Regardless, its nice to be able to track a system in the MDR. The peak of the season is upon us.






Do you think it could recurve into the gulf? The models only take it as far as the lesser antilles. The question is, where will it go after that?
Depending on the shear tendency in 5 days, danny could be a hurricane when/if it hit the islands. Could be a cat. 2.
Quoting 1338. DellOperator:

On this day of August 18, 1983 during a transition to La Nina, Hurricane Alicia hit the Upper TX Coast. The only major storm for the Atlantic season.


There, fixed that.

Link
Interested to see what the HWRF cooks up in the 12z run.
(EXCERPT)

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

"Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today."
Looking to see what the Euro has in store..blog blew up yesterday...
TD 04L seems eerily similar to Hurricane Debby of 2000. I wonder if that is a good analog for TD 4.
Lot's of Pouches.
1355. GPTGUY
Let's not forget what happened to Chris in 2006
Post 1336 did I get that right about the models, if for example 12z means data from 8 am EDT got fed into that run?


Tropical Depression Four winds 35 mph 2:33 PM EDT on August 18, 2015
Quoting 1262. Bucsboltsfan:



Hey Jedkins, looking long term. A trough has been pretty well established on the east coast for much of the summer (hence our persistent west wind pattern), do you see any long term pattern change that could influence the future Danny?


As of now, I don't really see any reason for it to head out to sea due to troughing. Model guidance through the reliable period keeps ridging in the Atlantic strong enough to steer it into the Caribbean regardless of how strong it becomes. Afterward it's too far out to say where it's steering will be. I'd say it will take until it reaches the end of the 5 day cone before we can even begin speculating on whether it could make it into the gulf or not.

It's still way out in the Central Atlantic, a lot of big ifs remain. It's just weather geek monitoring fun and nothing else right now. The leeward and Windward islands however are the exception, which should monitor this one closely( but not panic by any means).
Euro comes out at 2pm.
12z HWRF seems to have a pretty decent 45-50kt tropical cyclone in 24 hours.
Baha @1274...
"Said 'be careful what you wish for' in the blog last week.... while it is always exciting to observe cyclogenesis in the ATL, it's always also a double-edged sword ... right now it's fun and laughs.... 5 - 10 days from now it's entirely possible somebody will be feeling the pain ... and that somebody could easily be me."
In a way, I'm speaking for anyone here who makes an innocent comment or expresses excitement when observing the natural phenomenon that extreme weather is...

Yes, you did say that, and, just to be clear, you said it in response to my post to a new member about a "hope for rain" for the DR - which hope was made without mention of a 'cane or anything with a name and was made before 96L/04L became a player. Looked like the DR got some rain the past couple days, and I hope this rain helped alleviate the dry conditions. Better than many here do, I understand anxiety arises when weather potential threatens life, limb and property. What I wrote to you last week, I will state again, I don't wishcast... and don't blame your 'canes on me... and I add this: Please understand those who get excited watching an amazing storm system like the current 04L do not wish carnage upon anyone.
The flip side of anxiety is excitement.
1362. JRRP
Quoting 1357. hurricanes2018:



Tropical Depression Four winds 35 mph 2:33 PM EDT on August 18, 2015


impressive
1363. Drakoen
GFS 12z degenerates TD4 into an open wave over the Lesser Antilles.
1364. 62901IL
Looks like TD 4 miiiiight become a hurricane and go STRAIGHT FOR THE ANTILLIES!!!!!!!!!!!!! RUN!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D :D

Heh, heh.

Sorry I have not been on in a while. I went to this website.

Hope everyone is fine.
1365. 900MB
Quoting 1362. JRRP:


impressive


Seems to be developing rather quickly. Danny sooner than you think.
1366. JRRP
when is the next mission HH ?
1367. hydrus
No bueno..



Atsani.

1368. Patrap
Quoting 1357. hurricanes2018:



Tropical Depression Four winds 35 mph 2:33 PM EDT on August 18, 2015



Hard to fathom it being 2:33 EDT when it is 12:42 EDT currently
1369. sar2401
The blog over the next seven days in one picture....

1370. JRRP
CMC
1371. Patrap
Quoting 1366. JRRP:

when is the next mission HH ?


On the NHC Home page, under Aircraft Recon in the menu.

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 181338
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT TUE 18 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

1372. 62901IL
Quoting 1370. JRRP:

CMC



I think NHC waaaaaaaaaaaaay overdid their forecast. I'd say 60-65 when it reaches the Antilles is a better bet than 100.
No new update from the Doc or Mr.Henson?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1375. Cat5WPB
Quoting 1259. StormTrackerScott:

Any mod please e-mail me why I was banned. Someone needs to man up and explain themselves. I said nothing wrong on here and still get banned for saying TD4 has a chance of becoming a hurricane. So can a mod please e-mail me their reasoning for this ban.


LOL... welcome to WU....where modding isn't a skill, it's an art!

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Quoting 1349. TimSoCal:



There, fixed that.

Link


Thanks Tim. I should have put the "post" before the El Nino in there. Oops. That's what I like about this site. Spread the knowledge and keep the facts straight.
Quoting 1363. Drakoen:

GFS 12z degenerates TD4 into an open wave over the Lesser Antilles.


Bad initialization maybe? One broadly closed isobar @ 1012mb at 00 hrs on the full resolution run.

1379. Patrap


Quoting 1362. JRRP:


impressive


very impressive is right what is going to happern tonight maybe a tropical storm soon
TD 4 is vary impressive right now i think its vary close if not a TS right now if things go too nuts in here am going to bail out and go in too lurk mode


will the WINDWARD ISLANDS did say they need rain will here you go LOL
1382. sar2401
Quoting 1347. TimTheWxMan:





Do you think it could recurve into the gulf? The models only take it as far as the lesser antilles. The question is, where will it go after that?
Winning lottery numbers? Will my spouse love me forever? Will Danny make it to the Gulf? These and many other unknowable questions can only be answered with the Magic 8 Ball. :-)
TD 4 yay

Why the hell did I have to fall asleep

Anyway

Forecast cone is interesting

Floater has changed to 30 min updates

So 100 years ago today, Galveston was hit by a major hurricane which formed further East then today's tropical depression did. Caused 400 deaths and 50 million in damage (1915 USD)




Quoting 1361. Barefootontherocks:

Baha @1274...
"Said 'be careful what you wish for' in the blog last week.... while it is always exciting to observe cyclogenesis in the ATL, it's always also a double-edged sword ... right now it's fun and laughs.... 5 - 10 days from now it's entirely possible somebody will be feeling the pain ... and that somebody could easily be me."
In a way, I'm speaking for anyone here who makes an innocent comment or expresses excitement when observing the natural phenomenon that extreme weather is...

Yes, you did say that, and, just to be clear, you said it in response to my post to a new member about a "hope for rain" for the DR - which hope was made without mention of a 'cane or anything with a name and was made before 96L/04L became a player. Looked like the DR got some rain the past couple days, and I hope this rain helped alleviate the dry conditions. Better than many here do, I understand anxiety arises when weather potential threatens life, limb and property. What I wrote to you last week, I will state again, I don't wishcast... and don't blame your 'canes on me..." and I add this: Please understand those who get excited watching an amazing storm system like the current 04L do not wish carnage upon anyone.
The flip side of anxiety is excitement.
There's another saying "Hope for the best; prepare for the worst." Some of the best with TCs is the thrill - like a rollercoaster, you don't have much fun if it's a "safe" seeming ride. Even those of us who started watching 'canes for information and safety reasons experience that thrill and the wonder of nature's beauty and power. I think we established some years ago that ppl who can't understand this will have a hard time in this blog ...
OTOH it pays to be aware of the dangers associated with the wx phenomena that so excite us. Your "wish" may not be causative, but it should also not be ignorant.

The pink dot just made an appearance. Is this the COC around 11.3N and 37W?

The pink dot just made an appearance. Is this the COC around 11.3N and 37W?
I'm sure everyone has already seen this ....

NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Four in the east-central tropical Atlantic at 11 AM EDT.

Isn't this the week WUTV is supposed to start? If so, talk about good timing!