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NOAA: Major El Niño Still on Track

By: Bob Henson 5:12 PM GMT on August 13, 2015

In its latest monthly outlook, issued on Thursday (see PDF), NOAA continues to project that the ongoing El Niño event, already close to record strength for August, will at least approach the highest overall strength observed at any time of year since 1950. As of last week (see PDF), sea-surface temperatures across a key part of the eastern tropical Pacific called Niño3.4 were running 1.9°C above the long-term average for this time of year. This month’s Niño3.4 values could end up warmer than those for any other August in the official NOAA database, which goes back to 1950. The most recent value of NOAA’s closely watched Oceanic Niño Index, which is based on three-month averages for Niño3.4, was +1.0°C for May-July 2015, which ranks behind only 1987 (+1.1°C) for May-July readings. The NOAA outlook released on Thursday notes that the atmosphere-ocean coupling remains strong across the tropical Pacific, with weaker-than-average trade winds. Also, showers and thunderstorms have shifted toward the central and eastern equatorial Pacific from the west. “Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño,” noted the outlook.


Figure 1. Early-August status of the 1997 and 2015 El NIño events in terms of satellite-derived data showing departure from average sea-surface height for a given time of year, which is correlated with warmth in the upper ocean. This animation shows the side-by-side evolution of both events. Image credit: NASA/JPL.


More signs of a barn-burner El Niño can be gleaned from the international array of computer models scrutinized by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Each month BOM calculates a multimodel average of Niño3.4 values going out for several months. In July, BOM’s multimodel average indicated that the Niño3.4 anomaly (departure from the seasonal norm) will rise to around +2.6°C by October and +2.7°C by December. This would imply a three-month average (Oct-Dec) of between +2.6° and +2.7°C. Were this to materialize, it would be well above the previous record three-month average in the NOAA database of +2.3°C, observed in Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec 1997. Update (15 August]: The outlook from NOAA's Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2], which is regularly cited in the BOM outlook, has hovered close to a maximum Niño3.4 anomaly of +3.0°C in its forecasts over the last few weeks. Shown below is the "PDF-corrected" version of NOAA's CFSv2 outlook, which has been consistently in the neighborhood of a +2.0°C maximum. Studies indicate that the PDF correction can improve the anomaly predictions for the Niño3.4 region, although in this case the PDF-corrected outlook lies substantially below the multimodel average cited above. Thanks to WU reader Cheyne Mosher for calling attention to this.


Figure 2. NOAA’s Climate Forecast System model (CFSv2) continues to show El Niño intensifying into this autumn, then decreasing in early 2016, in a fairly typical pattern for a strong El Niño event. Niño3.4 sea-surface temperatures in this PDF-corrected version are projected by CFSv2 to rise to about 2.0°C above the seasonal norm. Without the PDF correction, CFSv2 predicts a maximum closer to 3.0°C. Both versions can be tracked here. The panels at right show SSTs for three-month windows from Aug-Oct 2015 (top left) to Feb-Apr 2016 (lower right). Image credit: NOAA.


There are well-known limits to how well models can simulate El Niño, and even a solid model can be temporarily “fooled” by short-term changes in the tropical Pacific. Nevertheless, the general consistency in El Niño outlooks across models and across time--and the steadily building warmth across the eastern tropical Pacific, both at and below the surface--suggests that an event as strong or stronger than any observed in modern times is still a real possibility. That said, NOAA forecasters stressed in a Thursday morning news conference that El Niño is not guaranteed to bring drought relief to California. In the crucial water-storage region of the central Sierra, for examples, the last four years brought only 56% of the cumulative average precipitation from October 2011 through July 2015, leaving a 71-inch deficit. To make this up, the region would need roughly 2.5 to 3 times its annual average precipitation over the coming year, said Kevin Werner, director of climate services for the National Weather Service’s Western Region. “We’d need something in excess of the wettest year on record to balance the four-year deficit,” Werner said. This message was reinforced by Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Just because something is favored, it doesn’t guarantee it will happen. One season of above-normal rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought,” said Halpert.

For more background on what impacts we might expect from El Niño over the next few months, see our North American roundup post from July 28 and our special post on potential Northeast U.S. impacts. Jeff Masters will take a look at global impacts of El Niño in a forthcoming post.

What happened to the El Niño of 2014-15?
If you thought we were already in an El Niño episode a few months ago, you might be puzzled to see that the official NOAA database no longer shows it. This change is due to a fairly minor update in the ocean temperature record that pulled one key period just below the required threshold.


Figure 3. Departures from seasonal average for sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Niño3.4 region over three-month intervals from 1997 to 2015. The shaded box (Jan-Mar 2015), originally 0.5°C, was “demoted” to 0.4°C with a July upgrade to SST analysis techniques. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


To qualify as a full-fledged El Niño episode, the Niño3.4 departure must be sustained at +0.5°C or greater for at least five overlapping three-month-long periods. When NOAA analysts are tracking El Niño in real time, they rely on a series of daily and weekly analyses of sea-surface temperature called OISST (optimum interpolation SST). OISST incorporates data from a variety of sources, including satellite-based measurements that are useful for short-term needs but which can introduce biases if they’re folded into a longer-term dataset that predates a particular satellite. For those longer-term purposes, the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI, formerly NCDC) produces the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), a monthly dataset that goes back to 1854 and that uses statistical techniques to fill in data gaps.

Every few years, the techniques used in ERSST are updated and a new version of the full dataset is released. This occurred with the advent of ERSSTv4 this past July. As it happens, ERSSTv4 brought down the Niño3.4 anomaly for January through March 2015 from +0.5°C to +0.4°C (see Figure 3). Even though every other three-month window since Oct-Dec 2014 is still at +0.5°C or greater, this “demotion” of Jan-Mar 2015 means that we have yet to see five consecutive three-month periods of El Niño. Without those five periods, we haven’t yet met the formal definition for an El Niño episode (shown as red intervals in the NOAA historical database and in Figure 3 above). By next month, though, we’ll have five consecutive periods, and the El Niño episode will again become official, extending back to Feb-Apr 2015. The ERSSTv4 introduction also downgraded a few other El Niño and La Niña events from the last 65 years. These are identified by Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services) on a website that classifies El Niño and La Niña events by strength. One more wrinkle: it’s possible that Jan-Mar 2015 could be “undemoted” next year, when the climatology that underlies the above- and below-normal categorizations goes through a scheduled five-year update that takes long-term warming into account. In any case, the atmospheric response to the warm Niño3.4 readings in the winter of 2014-15 fell short of the usual El Niño standards, according to Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), so it’s best not to place too much emphasis on this borderline event.

The Case of the Not-Quite El Niño Episode reminds us of an important point stressed by L’Heureux: “Our SST observations are estimates. This is why we always encourage looking at multiple indices and datasets when trying to assess the state of ENSO. No one dataset or index will ever be perfect.” The further back in time we go, the more piecemeal is our knowledge of the SSTs that prevailed at the time. This is why NOAA’s most commonly used database of ENSO episodes only extends back to 1950. It’s quite possible to use ERSSTv4 or analyses from other research centers to calculate Niño3.4 values prior to 1950. However, these must be used with caution, as the data become increasingly scant going back in time (see Figure 4 below). To help flesh out the picture, scientists look to independent measurements related to El Niño, such as the Southern Oscillation Index, based on the observed difference in barometeric pressure between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. The greatest confidence in pre-1950 ENSO history is for the very strongest events, which are typically reflected in a wide range of land-based repercussions consistent with El Niño and La Niña behavior. For example, the El Niño of 1877-78 appears to have been at least as strong as the “super” 1982-83 and 1997-98 events. Calculations based on ERSSTv4 by wunderground member Eric Webb (@webberweather) suggest that the Niño3.4 value topped 2.5°C for several months. Drought associated with the 1877-78 El Niño may have contributed to horrific multiyear famines that took an estimated 5 million lives in India and 9-13 million lives in China.

For an update on the latest tropical cyclone action, including a fizzling Tropical Storm Hilda and twin typhoons predicted to develop next week, see this morning's post by Jeff Masters.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Distribution of sea surface temperature observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set for each 20-year period from 1860 to 1979. This dataset underpins the NOAA ERRST long-term reanalysis discussed above. Color shading indicates the percentage of months that have at least one measurement within a 2°-latitude by 2°-longitude grid box (roughly 140 by 140 miles near the equator). Image credit: Used with permission from “Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms,” Annual Review of Marine Science 2009, doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453, courtesy Clara Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research.



El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thats.good
Thanks Dr. Henson!
From previous blog

Quoting 43. Bucsboltsfan:



Hey Matt, do you think that linw will sag into the bay area? I'm afraid it will later this afternoon.



Well, the last few runs of the HRRR model do not show much rain for Tampa through the forecast period. The NWS seems to think this boundary is going to gradually weaken starting later today, so it doesn’t appear this will be a flooding event for the immediate Tampa Bay area. I have not had a drop of rain at my location today.
NOAA’s Climate Forecast System model (CFSv2) continues to show El Niño intensifying into this autumn, then decreasing in early 2016, in a fairly typical pattern for a strong El Niño event. Niño3.4 sea-surface temperatures are projected by CFSv2 to rise to about 2.0°C above the seasonal norm



the CPC all ready has nino 3.4 up too 1.9 so its a little a head on what noaa is saying its going too peak at all so i think the CPC will have 2.0 too 2.3 in there next CPC update next week so cant wait for that so EL nino will peak march higher then what the CFSv2 is showing
Thanks Mr. Henson! So the currently forecast Niño3.4 numbers of 2.6 and 2.7 would be higher than the estimates for 1877-78, 1982-83, and 1997-98 events? Yikes! Let's hope the duration for the current El Niño is shorter than the 1877-78's several months above 2.5.
The Doc and Mr.Henson have gone into blog over drive! Other blog didn't even hit 50 comments lol.
just wandering how many more named storms we could have this year...4? dont see long range model showing anything forming
Dang Mr henson....what a wealth of information. ...Thank you
Quoting 3. tampabaymatt:

From previous blog

Quoting 43. Bucsboltsfan:



Hey Matt, do you think that linw will sag into the bay area? I'm afraid it will later this afternoon.



Well, the last few runs of the HRRR model do not show much rain for Tampa through the forecast period. The NWS seems to think this boundary is going to gradually weaken starting later today, so it doesn’t appear this will be a flooding event for the immediate Tampa Bay area. I have not had a drop of rain at my location today.


I hope you are right and they do fizzle. I hope to mow my lawn later today.
41% humidity in the FL Panhandle, not a cloud in the sky, feels like I'm back in Colorado!
Another new blog already? Is that a record?
Quoting 15. Drakoen:

Another new blog already? Is that a record?
Exactly what I said XD.
Quoting 10. stormhank:

just wandering how many more named storms we could have this year...4? dont see long range model showing anything forming
There are long range models right now showing not one, but two storms in the Atlantic in the next 16 days. Long range models, which only go out 16 days in some cases, 14 days in others, almost always show some kind of low in the Atlantic during hurricane season. Now, if you're asking about how reliable those models are past seven days, the answer is not very. We know very little about what storm we will get two weeks from now looking at models two weeks out. Until there's an invest, I just refuse to look now. Too much like the boulevard of broken dreams.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
centered several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is
producing a large but still disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
cyclone to form from this system over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Quoting 8. DFWdad:

Thanks Mr. Henson! So the currently forecast Niño3.4 numbers of 2.6 and 2.7 would be higher than the estimates for 1877-78, 1982-83, and 1997-98 events? Yikes! Let's hope the duration for the current El Niño is shorter than the 1877-78's several months above 2.5.



I don't want EL nino too be shoter thank you after be dry for 4 years CA really needs too have flooding rains
If I were to give a visual of what it looks like outside right now this would be it. It is a very nice summer day out today!
Quoting 14. opal92nwf:

41% humidity in the FL Panhandle, not a cloud in the sky, feels like I'm back in Colorado!

Still warm at 95 degrees but the dewpoint is only 68, making the heat much more tolerable than a dewpoint of 79 and a temperature of 100. The dry air has penetrated much further south than originally forecast, taking out almost all the convection in the northern Gulf down to central Florida. Doesn't look we see a chance of any kind of rain until Monday at the earliest.


super El Niño will be here soon
a "barn burner" :)
Quoting 14. opal92nwf:

41% humidity in the FL Panhandle, not a cloud in the sky, feels like I'm back in Colorado!



The low humidity is nice but it's still in the low to mid 90's for temps throughout the area! Will be nice tonight when the sun goes down and it cools a bit!


notting going on here
Quoting 24. hurricanes2018:



super El Niño will be here soon
super ultra mega jurassic el nino
Quoting 23. sar2401:

Still warm at 95 degrees but the dewpoint is only 68, making the heat much more tolerable than a dewpoint of 79 and a temperature of 100. The dry air has penetrated much further south than originally forecast, taking out almost all the convection in the northern Gulf down to central Florida. Doesn't look we see a chance of any kind of rain until Monday at the earliest.


30% chance of rain tomorrow and Saturday and then 50% Sunday. My guess is the front will drift back North slowly over the next couple of days.

Not often a front passes by this time of year let alone stays South of us without pushing back North.
Concerning ElNino and California drought:

California drought will persist despite 'significant and strengthening' El Niño

Experts caution the impact of the weather pattern would be limited as it has no proven effect on the state’s northern regions, where its main water resources lie


Kevin Werner, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s western region climate services, said that El Niño tends to bring above normal precipitation to southern California, but is not proven to have such effects on northern California.

“This is important because most of the water resources in the state originate from the much wetter mountain areas in the central and northern part of California along with the upper Colorado river basin,” Werner said.


Over 15 inches needed all over south FL, incredible.

I knew this summer was off. When the afternoon rains are missing, for days on end. Still not as bad on the SW side vs the SE side.

In any case, still hopeful end of August will make up for it, and El Nino seems to want a 'wetter' fall/winter.
Hangin' in there... So far so good this season...
I still say Nino will peak either 1.9/2.0

Anyway let's see
So glad to see some of the regulars are still here...Been laid up for a long time... feeling better , but still an old lady..
Banned for discussing Rain??!! Who is modding today? Considered rain "off topic", yet post #25 way ontop of topic...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
El Nino is really doing a number of any storm developing systems in the Atlantic ...

Quoting 40. FrostyNaples:

Banned for discussing Rain??!! Who is modding today? Considered rain "off topic", yet post #25 way ontop of topic...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
Frosty, I guess when you become the the "Big Cheese" then you can make the choices of yes or no..For now....Guess not.. That's life
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson....
The globe's weather has changed, but profoundly. We now have a record El Nino, in combination with extreme southern Rossby waves in the northern hemisphere, 'stuck' in place for far longer than in the past. It's starting to look like 2015 is the year in which it all starts to kick off. We live in interesting times.
Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for northeastern Palm Beach County until 315
PM EDT...

* at 229 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Jupiter. This storm was nearly stationary.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Jupiter... Palm Beach Gardens... Riviera Beach...
Tequesta... Juno Beach... North Palm Beach... Lake Park... Juno
ridge... North County Airport... the acreage... Limestone creek...
Jupiter farms... Philo farms... caloosa and fau north Campus.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may lead
to street flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and
local media for additional updates.
Thank You Mr. Henson. In the longer term prospects (post Atlantic hurricane season with the suppression issue), we will have to see how the El Nino impacts Winter storm trajectories for the US. We might see some pretty deep Gulf lows this Winter move across the South on the way towards blizzard status in the NE. Then we have to see how much the El Nino wanes in the Spring going into tornado season (waning El Ninos cause the most tornadic outbreaks per climatology).

El Nino, with the US exception (a good gone) for suppressed hurricane activity, brings lots of potential for severe weather from Winter into the following Spring cross Conus.
Oil per BBL drops another 2 plus percent down to $42.35 a barrell.

WUnderful.
Today was our 46th day of 90F or above temps.

The record is 51 from 1962.
Both of our pending W-Pac storms continue to take shape this afternoon and convection has increased since this morning with both invests: particularly with the complex further to the East.

spin@17n.56w
98W




Quoting 50. Patrap:

Today was our 46th day of 90F or above temps.

The record is 51 from 1962.
  Hang in there Pat......
Here is the current scoop per JTWC:



ABPW10 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131500Z-140600ZAUG2015//

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
166.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 164.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 131010Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 
153.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 152.2E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 131056Z METOP-A MICROWAVE
IMAGE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.
Quoting 56. PedleyCA:


  Hang in there Pat......


Thanx,

Is weird today as the front is thru . A N breeze, warm off the lake but a tad less torrid Pedley.

But the GOM is about to open up with a Southerly flow this weekend.

Things are going to get busy soon nuff out there.

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for poor drainage areas
for...
northeastern Palm Beach County in southeastern Florida...

* until 500 PM EDT

* at 254 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen in
the past hour... which will cause overflowing poor drainage areas
will result in minor flooding on roadways and low lying areas in
the advisory area. An additional one to two inches of rain will be
possible over the next two hours.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
West Palm Beach... Jupiter... Palm Beach Gardens... Tequesta and Juno
Beach.
So if a I say a Cat 3 is going to hit the east coast for the next few years and one finally does can I get a cookie and praise?
Human caused calamity,..a Scene from Hades.

Published on Aug 13, 2015

Drone shots reveal the scale of destruction after two massive explosions in Tianjin, China. At least 44 people are dead, among them 12 firefighters. Hospitals are dealing with an overwhelming influx of patients, as more than 500 people have been injured. Authorities say the explosions happened when a shipment of explosives being stored in a container detonated. **There is no sound in this video**
Quoting 34. FrostyNaples:



Over 15 inches needed all over south FL, incredible.

I knew this summer was off. When the afternoon rains are missing, for days on end. Still not as bad on the SW side vs the SE side.

In any case, still hopeful end of August will make up for it, and El Nino seems to want a 'wetter' fall/winter.



Keep in mind this isn't deviation from average, and it's a little too regional. While the drought is bad, this exaggerates it some if one doesn't know the average rain for each area. That is south Florida on average receives much more rain and on average has much higher soil moisture than most of those other regions experiencing drought, so it takes many more inches comparatively to produce the same result of bringing regional soil moisture back to the average. It doesn't help that south Florida has a shallow capacity to store rainfall, that is cities and any human area tries to drain the heavy rains out to sea to prevent flooding rather than store them, which always foolishly comes back to bite people during drought.





   They generously added another 100+ day and Sat-Sun were bumped up 4° from yesterdays numbers, oh goody...

So warmer + more rain, followed by cooler + more rain. I don't see the downside too much, rain is good, i mean look at the flip side, i'd rather not be CA.








Quoting 12. Bucsboltsfan:



I hope you are right and they do fizzle. I hope to mow my lawn later today.


Convection is exploding over the interior, but so far just spotty stuff near the coast oddly enough. I suspect it;s due to the slow movement, i.e., not enough convergence over the ocean to generate deeper thunderstorms.

Our best chance of getting really heavy stuff is if the land convection back builds to the coast, which it is trying to do.

Even if we don't get much today, long term guidance is very wet through the extended with both the GFS and the euro, which isn't surprising for mid to late August.

BTW, a southeast flow will be arriving by this weekend, that combined with cool temps aloft and deep moisture will lead to finally a chance of stronger late day sea breeze thunderstorms, some of which could get strong, something we've seen little of this summer since early July in the Tampa Bay area, instead of just overcast with plain old heavy rain.
Quoting 49. Patrap:

Oil per BBL drops another 2 plus percent down to $42.35 a barrell.

WUnderful.


Edit - increase was actually .45
Gas in Middleton WI just went up .45 overnight due to BP refinery in Indiana.
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

So if a I say a Cat 3 is going to hit the east coast for the next few years and one finally does can I get a cookie and praise?


No because I said it first:)
Quoting 63. PedleyCA:



   They generously added another 100+ day and Sat-Sun were bumped up 4° from yesterdays numbers, oh goody...




Being down by the port with no A/C this weekend should be tons of fun.

(kill me now)
Quoting 63. PedleyCA:



   They generously added another 100+ day and Sat-Sun were bumped up 4° from yesterdays numbers, oh goody...



It would help if we knew what city this forcast was for.
GFS doing it again.
Quoting 65. Jedkins01:



Convection is exploding over the interior, but so far just spotty stuff near the coast oddly enough. I suspect it;s due to the slow movement, i.e., not enough convergence over the ocean to generate deeper thunderstorms.

Our best chance of getting really heavy stuff is if the land convection back builds to the coast, which it is trying to do.

Even if we don't get much today, long term guidance is very wet through the extended with both the GFS and the euro, which isn't surprising for mid to late August.

BTW, a southeast flow will be arriving by this weekend, that combined with cool temps aloft and deep moisture will lead to finally a chance of stronger late day sea breeze thunderstorms, some of which could get strong, something we've seen little of this summer since early July in the Tampa Bay area, instead of just overcast with plain old heavy rain.


The skies have opened up on us.
Quoting 74. Bucsboltsfan:



The skies have opened up on us.


2.56 inches and counting at the nearest WU station to me
Quoting 26. WaterWitch11:

a "barn burner" :)
I caught that also.... 'barnacle burner' may be more apropos in context
Quoting 71. HurriHistory:


It would help if we knew what city this forcast was for.
Inland Empire is the San Bernardino/Riverside area...my handle is a City....
96.5F here, 100F at KRAL using the water cooler still(for now)
'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California, latest forecast suggests; could bring 'extreme rainfall'
Afternoon all .... getting cloudy here just in time to cut down on the worst of the heat .... :o)
Quoting 75. SunnyDaysFla:



2.56 inches and counting at the nearest WU station to me


I thought you were pretty close to me. I'm at 1.10" right now. But I know I missed a lot of the earlier storms that were popping up.
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California, latest forecast suggests; could bring 'extreme rainfall'
lol
Well this season I guess we'll just have to take what we get.

The pending weather issues with predicted extremes due to climate change is going to bring very interesting weather events across the globe including flooding, droughts, wild fires, heat waves, species extinction, sea level rise, polar ice cap melt and the list goes on and on. It is going to very tough on lots of folks but we will probably find a way to adapt along the way. However, if you get a slew of catastrophic weather events in rapid succession, along with trumpet and horn sounds coming from the skies, that is another completely different issue................................
Thanks Mr. Henson...Nino does look impressive on the temp charts..It will be interesting to see how the strange hemispheric patterns interact with this event.
Response to the blog:
A look at last year's global weather here and there points to El Nino conditions, even if the data in the little boxes has changed. I respectfully submit - as I stated here several months or more than a year ago, probably around last year, February - mankind is just beginning to understand relationships within ocean currents and ocean temperatures and weather. When I add the (relatively) recent knowledge about El Nino with the "unknowns" and "undiscovereds" that could be - and probably are - out there, my mind sees more unknowns than knowns.

Response to comment 44 and its plussers.
Dirgeful doomsday sayers drag every weather extreme event to the forefront and use it as an excuse to whine. The postulated Dust Bowl of 2011 to --- never happened. Now 2015 is possibly a benchmark year for the mankind's launch into unmitigated punishment by weather? To suggest this year as a milestone is pure folly and an attempt to use scare tactics against Earth's human inhabitants.

Rossby waves. How long have Rossby waves been known to mankind? You can find out for yourself here.

El Nino. How long ago was the Southern Oscillation noticed? When was (the) El Nino phenomenon identified? 1960? 1925? 1877? What about the NAO and the Arctic Oscillations? (Duck Duck is your friend.) Not a lot of research about El Nino to date because...
No one payed much attention to ENSO until 1997.

Tell you what would make 2015 really memorable. Let's have "the powers that be" shut down every form of conventional energy. On the spot. Right now. Oh, now the whines deafen me!... "I have no air-con (or heat), no refrigeration... no way to get to work... therefore no money, but that's okay because there is no food or TP at the market, and my workplace closed up shop last week. Ha. Who could survive? Your dog maybe. People in the Third World bush who already practice living off the land could survive. People who live in the country, understand agriculture, and use a well powered by sun or wind could survive - the way lost cultures did. Of course they better have weapons handy, for the men of the cities will soon arrive.

The immediate shutting off conventional energy scenario is just as silly as suggesting 2015 could be the year when doomsday* begins. But the energy shut-off is more likely to become real than the thought that Rossby waves have wavered from their paths in life are NOW STUCK "for longer than in the past," which means for the first time EVER.

edit: punctuation; one "and" removed; add *weather doomsday, that is.)
Quoting 63. PedleyCA:



They generously added another 100 day and Sat-Sun were bumped up 4 from yesterdays numbers, oh goody...




Half full or half empty? Check out the 20 degree drop next week. Back to the low 80s in inland OC, CA end of next week. Lows still well below 70 at the end of August which cool off the house during the night with the whole house fan. Looks like the community pool with an adult beverage this weekend. :)
Quoting 31. 69Viking:



30% chance of rain tomorrow and Saturday and then 50% Sunday. My guess is the front will drift back North slowly over the next couple of days.

Not often a front passes by this time of year let alone stays South of us without pushing back North.
I should have written "me" rather than "we". The front/boundary is going to drift back north much too slowly for me to see anything before Monday. I have a 30% chance of Monday and 40% chance on Tuesday. Those chances are the same as saying "Are you kidding me?". Until I get to at least 50% chances of rain, I don't even bother to check the radar. You have a better chance since the Gulf is close enough to help with convection. By the time it gets here, all I have is moisture from the peanut fields. :-)
Quoting 38. PalmBeachWeather:

So glad to see some of the regulars are still here...Been laid up for a long time... feeling better , but still an old lady..

Good to see you around again. I feel for you, being a laid up old man. The old body just doesn't bounce back as fast now.
Quoting 83. weathermanwannabe:

The pending weather issues with predicted extremes due to climate change is going to bring very interesting weather events across the globe including flooding, droughts, wild fires, heat waves, species extinction, sea level rise, polar ice cap melt and the list goes on and on. It is going to very tough on lots of folks but we will probably find a way to adapt along the way. However, if you get a slew of catastrophic weather events in rapid succession, along with trumpet and horn sounds coming from the skies, that is another completely different issue................................


umm...
Good evening, folks, and thanks to Bob Henson for the very good entry on our "beloved" El Nino! I appreciate to see abbreviations like "ERSST" explained - now I feel a bit more capable to understand even a post from Webberweather (BTW, where is he gone?), lol. And Figure 4 is very interesting, showing all the old ship trade tracks (or what it's called) developing.


Top temps in Europe today.

As I once have started it, I don't want to fail with our daily European heatwave news. They are random as always, as I'm dependent on English reports in here. In German news you could read today that water pipes in the east of our country started to break due to the dry and crackling soil.
I strongly hope it will be the last collection of this kind (and I guess you're looking forward to the end as well, lol) as the heatwave should fade now: from tomorrow on slowly at my place mid Germany (once again sweltry 36C = 97F at my place in Mainz today!), and a bit later in eastern European countries as well. Although it should stay warm over there. Currently heavy thunderstorms rage in the west of Europe, and, boy, some decent rain would be so welcome in central and eastern Europe as well! Hope the storms will make it to us soon! Long lasting, soaking rain for all isn't forecast, unfortunately.


Temperature forecast for the next two weeks: the "red" has to give way to more "yellow" in central Europe, thankfully!

Macedonian capital under Butterfly invasion
Thursday, 13 August 2015
Spectacular scenes are being reported from right across the Macedonian capital as millions of butterflies invade the city amid a heatwave.
Skopje residents have reported watching swarms of thousands drift through their yards and the air overhead throughout the afternoon, believed brought on by the hot northerly winds.
Mass sightings have been reported all over the city, including Aerodrom, Kozle, Centar, Karposh etc..
They’ve been reported swarming in various colours, though are mostly white.
Residents are reporting they can't be seen during the day, however during the night, they were everywhere, particularly street lamps and homes. Some reidents have complained, they aren't able to open the doors of their homes at nights as butterflies get in quickly.


Deathtoll in Egypt is still rising:
Egypt’s scorching heat wave claims at least 76 lives in 4 days: Ministry
Ahram Online , Thursday 13 Aug 2015

Orangutan ‘Bongo’ dies of extreme heat wave
Aug. 13, 2015 16:54
CAIRO: The Orangutan “Bongo” has died at Giza Zoo due to the extreme heat wave hitting Egypt this month, the Ministry of Agriculture announced Thursday. ...
EL-NINO SUPER GODZILLA just not sure what is the big deal! The world is not coming to an end hurricane season sucks Calf. may get some needed rain. Just don't get all the fuss just something to talk about?
Quoting 33. JohnLonergan:

Concerning ElNino and California drought:

California drought will persist despite 'significant and strengthening' El Niño

Experts caution the impact of the weather pattern would be limited as it has no proven effect on the state’s northern regions, where its main water resources lie


Kevin Werner, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s western region climate services, said that El Niño tends to bring above normal precipitation to southern California, but is not proven to have such effects on northern California.

“This is important because most of the water resources in the state originate from the much wetter mountain areas in the central and northern part of California along with the upper Colorado river basin,” Werner said.

I wonder what Mr. Werner's backup for that statement is? I lived in northern California from 1976 until 2004. I was doing swiftwater rescue work from 1978 until 2003. During the last two strong El Nino events (1982 and 1997), we had tremendous floods and record rains in California, but primarily in northern CA. We also had record rains, again only in northern CA, in the recently downgraded to weak El Nino year of 1995 and the still moderate year of 1986. There certainly were no strong El Nino years, and only few moderate El Nino years, that didn't bring heavy rains and floods to northern CA. Weak El Nino years are where the correlation starts to fall apart.
Quoting 93. gulfbreeze:

EL-NINO SUPER GODZILLA just not sure what is the big deal! The world is not coming to an end hurricane season sucks Calf. may get some needed rain. Just don't get all the fuss just something to talk about?
Do a google search on strong el nino effects. It has a few more negative effects (along with some positive effects) than just hurricane season and CA rains.
Quoting 88. tampabaymatt:




I think I got my 1.5" already. So hopefully the weekend will be nice.
The EURO and NAVGEM have awaken to the Cape Verde season.
Quoting 98. BobinTampa:



I think I got my 1.5" already. So hopefully the weekend will be nice.


I got my 3 inches.
Quoting 50. Patrap:

Today was our 46th day of 90F or above temps.

The record is 51 from 1962.


Surprised the record number of 90F days in a year in South LA is only 52. Or is this the record for the number of consecutive ones?

Moment LA Releases 96 Million Plastic Balls in Reservoir to Avoid 300 MG Water Evopration
Youtube caption, 12.08.2015
The sea of 96MILLION plastic balls that LA hopes will save it from drought: Reservoir is covered in an ocean of black spheres to stop 300million gallons of water evaporating
Black plastic balls were this week released into the 175-acre Los Angeles Reservoir in Sylmar, California
They are designed to cover the water, prevent evaporation and protect it from dust, rain, chemicals and wildlife. The polyethylene balls, around the size of an apple, cost 36 cents each and are black to help deflect the UV rays. With no apparent relief to California's record-breaking drought, Los Angeles has turned to more unusual methods to protect the city's water. ...


Some days ago I've posted an article that Jordan plans to protect its reservoirs this way, too. I then had to look up this hollow ball system. Now it's again in the news. It's becoming stylish today, obviously ;-) Hope it helps - although it really doesn't improve the look of the lakes :-(
Quoting 38. PalmBeachWeather:

So glad to see some of the regulars are still here...Been laid up for a long time... feeling better , but still an old lady..

Hey! Super to see you! I'm glad you're feeling better, too. Nothing like feeling off your game to get on your own last nerve...
Quoting 102. barbamz:


Moment LA Releases 96 Million Plastic Balls in Reservoir to Avoid 300 MG Water Evopration
Youtube caption, 12.08.2015
The sea of 96MILLION plastic balls that LA hopes will save it from drought: Reservoir is covered in an ocean of black spheres to stop 300million gallons of water evaporating
Black plastic balls were this week released into the 175-acre Los Angeles Reservoir in Sylmar, California
They are designed to cover the water, prevent evaporation and protect it from dust, rain, chemicals and wildlife. The polyethylene balls, around the size of an apple, cost 36 cents each and are black to help deflect the UV rays. With no apparent relief to California's record-breaking drought, Los Angeles has turned to more unusual methods to protect the city's water. ...


Some days ago I've posted an article that Jordan plans to protect its reservoirs this way, too. I then had to look up this hollow ball system. Now it's again in the news. It's becoming stylish today, obviously ;-) Hope it helps - although it really doesn't improve the look of the lakes :-(



And when we decide to remove them, that's going to be a lot harder.

Lot of convection under way. No doubt: Africa is really trying!
More than 12,000 FPL Palm Beach County customers without power...

The next two names in the west pacific are goni and atsani. those would be the names of the two typhoons predicted for next week
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:

And when we decide to remove them, that's going to be a lot harder.

That's true. And a lot of oil was used to form them.
Today's the 11th anniversary of hurricane charley landfalling in punta gorda, florida.
Quoting 105. barbamz:


Lot of convection under way. No doubt: Africa is really trying!



The high hopes season has begun!
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



And when we decide to remove them, that's going to be a lot harder.

When all the water has dried up, just run along on the reservoir bed with a very large vacuum cleaner.
If it should rain, then drag a large boom over the surface.
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



And when we decide to remove them, that's going to be a lot harder.


Yeah, I can see a lot that can go wrong with this. Chemicals leaching into the water because the black plastic balls got hotter then they thought. All the dust and chemicals collecting on the surface of the top of the balls mixing back into the water when the wind stirs it up. Balls sinking because they are covered with bird excrement. But I am sure they have thought of all of this.
Records are made to be broken...
Quoting 112. DFWdad:



Yeah, I can see a lot that can go wrong with this. Chemicals leaching into the water because the black plastic balls got hotter then they thought. All the dust and chemicals collecting on the surface of the top of the balls mixing back into the water when the wind stirs it up. Balls sinking because they are covered with bird excrement. But I am sure they have thought of all of this.

A Floating Ball Cover system is a proven and effective wildlife deterrent recognized by organizations such as the "Fish and Wildlife Service". The Floating Ball Covers cover the entire surface of the water, making the pond unattractive to the birds. Other wildlife such as deer and foxes do not attempt to walk onto the cover, as the individual balls do not support the animal's weight.
Source: Energy Savings Mining & Industrial.

Some more about this system which probably was developed to shield waste and toxic waters:
Armor Ball%u2122: 4 inches thick shell hollow plastic ball cover


What a water pool covered with those balls looks like.


The behaviour of those balls in strong winds. Maybe we should cover the whole GOM with that - in case a cane would come around at some time in the future ;-)
Quoting 58. Patrap:


Thanx,

Is weird today as the front is thru . A N breeze, warm off the lake but a tad less torrid Pedley.

But the GOM is about to open up with a Southerly flow this weekend.

Things are going to get busy soon nuff out there.


This is about as busy as the Gulf has looked all season...
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:
So if a I say a Cat 3 is going to hit the east coast for the next few years and one finally does can I get a cookie and praise?
No. We only give cookies for similar ENSO forecasts ...
Well, there's low shear around the CV islands and SSTs have recovered to near/above normal now in the MDR:





The main issue is if the Tropical Waves will be able to fight off the choking dry air that lies ahead:



If they can somehow fight off the dry air, I think there's a good chance of at least one storm over the next few weeks as we come closer to the climatological peak of the hurricane season. I mean we've had many storms form with issues with dry air in the past and this year as well.

Quoting 105. barbamz:


Lot of convection under way. No doubt: Africa is really trying!
I still can't get over the extent of the cloud cover over the western Sahara...
WASHINGTON'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - NEW RECORD MOST CONSECUTIVE 70 F DAYS: The record most consecutive days with a maximum temperature at the Seattle WA airport of at least 70 F, of 62 such days, was set on August 13, 2015. 70 F is about 21 C.

Link
116. Envoirment
6:21 PM EDT on August 13, 2015

The SAL has been decreasing as well, per climatology. Given these positive changes, I'm not surprised long range forecast models are calling for storm development, albeit modest...
OMG so boring!

Quoting 117. BahaHurican:

I still can't get over the extent of the cloud cover over the western Sahara...

Yes, quite unusual - as far as I've observed the matter in the last years.
Quoting 114. barbamz:


A Floating Ball Cover system is a proven and effective wildlife deterrent recognized by organizations such as the "Fish and Wildlife Service". The Floating Ball Covers cover the entire surface of the water, making the pond unattractive to the birds. Other wildlife such as deer and foxes do not attempt to walk onto the cover, as the individual balls do not support the animal's weight.
Source: Energy Savings Mining & Industrial.

Some more about this system which probably was developed to shield waste and toxic waters:
Armor Ball%u2122: 4 inches thick shell hollow plastic ball cover


What a water pool covered with those balls looks like.


The behaviour of those balls in strong winds. Maybe we should cover the whole GOM with that - in case a cane would come around at some time in the future ;-)


The would have to make a movie called "Ballnado" then.
3" of rain fell today in Orlando bringing the August total to 6.46". That's a lot of rain for the first 13 days of August.
Quoting 122. Grothar:


The would have to make a movie called "Ballnado" then.

Lol, Gro! Horrible idea.
Quoting 117. BahaHurican:

I still can't get over the extent of the cloud cover over the western Sahara...


We have some kind of subtropical Jet Stream right at the edge to North Africa again (had this also in March), this will lead to airmass clashes with the ITCZ:



Here the water vapor loop for this region.

Oh and our Jet Stream forecast is just ridiculous:



and something totally funny, I have to watch out for this one:




Quoting 117. BahaHurican:

I still can't get over the extent of the cloud cover over the western Sahara...

You are a bit borderline with the Western Sahara in the photo.
A lot of the clouded areas are Morocco which in the western parts is not really desert.
The areas in the north are parts of Algeria, Tunisia and Libya which are also not totally desert in the northern parts.
There has been a lot of flooding in parts of Morocco and those white blobs on the photos certainly look like thunder storms.
Having said that there are certainly an unusual amount of clouds in the area for mid August.
Quoting 126. Climate175:




Seems the moisture off the west coast of Africa has pushed westward. Perhaps it'll be able to help get rid of some of the dry air in the central atlantic. P19L being the sacraficial lamb for P20L which is the wave forecast to develop somewhat by models.
Quoting 128. Envoirment:



Seems the moisture off the west coast of Africa has pushed westward. Perhaps it'll be able to help get rid of some of the dry air in the central atlantic. P19L being the sacraficial lamb for P20L which is the wave forecast to develop somewhat by models.
Yes, Pouch 19L has been doing the role of cleaning and fighting the dry air for Pouch 20L.
Quoting 128. Envoirment:



Seems the moisture off the west coast of Africa has pushed westward. Perhaps it'll be able to help get rid of some of the dry air in the central atlantic.


Pouch 20 is worth looking at.


Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:

3" of rain fell today in Orlando bringing the August total to 6.46". That's a lot of rain for the first 13 days of August.
Glad to hear it! It was getting a little dry. (200 bears)
Quoting 130. Grothar:



Pouch 20 is worth looking at.



Quoting 130. Grothar:



Pouch 20 is worth looking at.





The GFS, CMC and UKMET develop it into a tropical depression as it approaches the Lesser Antilles in about a week and the NAVGEM is showing some mischief further east from the GFS/CMC solutions. Hopefully something to watch and a rain giver to the islands.

Well, I'm sure "Godzilla El Nino" will reign the media and internet in the next months (like the "Polar Vortex" and RRR or even more). BTW, the term somehow is an oxymoron as "El Nino" literally means: the little one.


Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 3 Std.Vor 3 Stunden
I'm tracking Super Godzilla El Nino right now. Not going to lie, looks bad! :-)

Good night with that from my side of the world!
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:

3" of rain fell today in Orlando bringing the August total to 6.46". That's a lot of rain for the first 13 days of August.


Was that at the airport?
Quoting 102. barbamz:


Moment LA Releases 96 Million Plastic Balls in Reservoir to Avoid 300 MG Water Evopration
Youtube caption, 12.08.2015
The sea of 96MILLION plastic balls that LA hopes will save it from drought: Reservoir is covered in an ocean of black spheres to stop 300million gallons of water evaporating
Black plastic balls were this week released into the 175-acre Los Angeles Reservoir in Sylmar, California
They are designed to cover the water, prevent evaporation and protect it from dust, rain, chemicals and wildlife. The polyethylene balls, around the size of an apple, cost 36 cents each and are black to help deflect the UV rays. With no apparent relief to California's record-breaking drought, Los Angeles has turned to more unusual methods to protect the city's water. ...


Some days ago I've posted an article that Jordan plans to protect its reservoirs this way, too. I then had to look up this hollow ball system. Now it's again in the news. It's becoming stylish today, obviously ;-) Hope it helps - although it really doesn't improve the look of the lakes :-(


Maybe someone can explain this to me, because I'm obviously missing something. Black objects absorb all wavelengths of light and are the least reflective. Wouldn't 96 million black balls absorb sunlight, heating the water and increasing the rate of evaporation? Why not use white balls?
137. MahFL
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



And when we decide to remove them, that's going to be a lot harder.


No, they already used them on other reservoirs.
Quoting 135. Bucsboltsfan:



Was that at the airport?


Yup and even in Downtown Orlando too totals of 2.5".
Quoting 132. Climate175:



Which of the tropical waves is supposed to be that?
140. MahFL
Quoting 112. DFWdad:



Yeah, I can see a lot that can go wrong with this. Chemicals leaching into the water because the black plastic balls got hotter then they thought. All the dust and chemicals collecting on the surface of the top of the balls mixing back into the water when the wind stirs it up. Balls sinking because they are covered with bird excrement. But I am sure they have thought of all of this.


They are made of the same plastic the pipes in your house are made from. One of the points of the balls is they prevent chemical reactions. The balls do not sink.
Orlando International

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 3.01
MONTH TO DATE 6.46
SINCE JUN 1 20.67
SINCE JAN 1 34.66
142. MahFL
Quoting 136. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe someone can explain this to me, because I'm obviously missing something. Black objects absorb all wavelengths of light and are the least reflective. Wouldn't 96 million black balls absorb sunlight, heating the water and increasing the rate of evaporation? Why not use white balls?


Black makes the plastic last longer, and the colour apparently does not make much difference to evaporation rates.
Quoting 139. juracanpr1:


Which of the tropical waves is supposed to be that?
The one about to leave the West Coast of Africa very soon, models are saying Saturday morning. (Pouch 20L)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015


.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLIER
FROM LAKE COUNTY EASTWARD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAVELING SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
NEAR I-95 TO GENERATE SCT/NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO
AND TOWARD TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT AND TOWARD SUNSET. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE.

AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL.
HOWEVER SHOULD SEE PRECIP MOSTLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL
RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FRI...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD
INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES FRI. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW FOR SCT-NMRS SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY INTO
THE AFT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS (UP TO 60-70 PERCENT) IN FOR
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MODELS
INDICATE RELATIVELY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS...AROUND -8C...WHICH
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONGER STORMS.


SAT-MON...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT AND STAYS IN THE AREA SUN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY(TENN/ARKANSAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW FRI
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST SAT AND SUN. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATING MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR MID AUGUST.
HIGHS LOW 90S.

TUE-WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. INTO NORTH FLORIDA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY INTERIOR WED. HIGHS UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
145. MahFL
At least the water vapor shows black as opposed to brown in the far east Atlantic, so a touch more moist :

Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando International

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 3.01
MONTH TO DATE 6.46
SINCE JUN 1 20.67
SINCE JAN 1 34.66



You were off by .01. I'm at about 11"forthe month.
What type of polymer compose the black balls used in the California reservoir, what about the specific heat and heat conductivity?
Quoting 136. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe someone can explain this to me, because I'm obviously missing something. Black objects absorb all wavelengths of light and are the least reflective. Wouldn't 96 million black balls absorb sunlight, heating the water and increasing the rate of evaporation? Why not use white balls?


Think it goes back to their original use, which is to prevent bromate from forming (2008 article):

"Black is the only color strong enough to deflect ultraviolet rays, said Paul Sachdev, president of Orange Products."

Side benefit is the reduction in evaporation.
Quoting 102. barbamz:

Some days ago I've posted an article that Jordan plans to protect its reservoirs this way, too. I then had to look up this hollow ball system. Now it's again in the news. It's becoming stylish today, obviously ;-) Hope it helps - although it really doesn't improve the look of the lakes :-(


I was trying to remember what other country I'd seen them used on a large scale drinking source last week when I wrote a blog on shade balls in LA yesterday.
Quoting 147. juracanpr1:

What type of polymer compose the black balls used in the California reservoir, what about the specific heat and heat conductivity?

Polyethylene.. they are coated with some sort of chemical that was undisclosed in what I've looked through that extended the life of them from ~15years to over 25years.
Quoting 142. MahFL:



Black makes the plastic last longer, and the colour apparently does not make much difference to evaporation rates.

Similar when a non volatile solute is introduced into water to experiment with colligative properties. The water molecules at the interface H2O/air will have a greater difficulty to escape and the equilibration H2O (l)/H2O (g) to the corresponding external barometric pressure will be attained at a higher temperature.
Hello all..

Busy day at work and just now able to log on..

18z Navgem..

12z run..18z still running..



Also see the 12z Euro OPERATIONAL is now picking up on some possible development as the Euro ensembles hinted at yesterday..

Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:



Yup and even in Downtown Orlando too totals of 2.5".


check this out this would be nuts for early SEP all so the 1st real storm of the season













Quoting 102. barbamz:


Moment LA Releases 96 Million Plastic Balls in Reservoir to Avoid 300 MG Water Evopration
Youtube caption, 12.08.2015
The sea of 96MILLION plastic balls that LA hopes will save it from drought: Reservoir is covered in an ocean of black spheres to stop 300million gallons of water evaporating
Black plastic balls were this week released into the 175-acre Los Angeles Reservoir in Sylmar, California
They are designed to cover the water, prevent evaporation and protect it from dust, rain, chemicals and wildlife. The polyethylene balls, around the size of an apple, cost 36 cents each and are black to help deflect the UV rays. With no apparent relief to California's record-breaking drought, Los Angeles has turned to more unusual methods to protect the city's water. ...


Some days ago I've posted an article that Jordan plans to protect its reservoirs this way, too. I then had to look up this hollow ball system. Now it's again in the news. It's becoming stylish today, obviously ;-) Hope it helps - although it really doesn't improve the look of the lakes :-(



EDIT.. I should have read through first...

Have to wonder what compounds are now being released by the plastic.. BPA's? estrogenic compounds? and why did they choose black.. I would think white would be preferred as it would reflect heat.
Finally




Quoting 156. Tazmanian:


I get the feeling this storm is like every tropical cyclone the GFS "sees" more than 2 weeks out - a ghost. But it would definitely be nice if a storm hit NorCal - they need the rain more than we do.
Quoting 114. barbamz:


A Floating Ball Cover system is a proven and effective wildlife deterrent recognized by organizations such as the "Fish and Wildlife Service". The Floating Ball Covers cover the entire surface of the water, making the pond unattractive to the birds. Other wildlife such as deer and foxes do not attempt to walk onto the cover, as the individual balls do not support the animal's weight.
Source: Energy Savings Mining & Industrial.

Some more about this system which probably was developed to shield waste and toxic waters:
Armor Ball%u2122: 4 inches thick shell hollow plastic ball cover


What a water pool covered with those balls looks like.


The behaviour of those balls in strong winds. Maybe we should cover the whole GOM with that - in case a cane would come around at some time in the future ;-)


one vortice and they are GONE.. like the wind...
Quoting 157. indianrivguy:



Have to wonder what compounds are now being released by the plastic.. BPA's? estrogenic compounds? and why did they choose black.. I would think white would be preferred as it would reflect heat.


"The 175-acre reservoir holds 3.3 billion gallons of water, enough to supply the city for three weeks. The $34.5 million shade-ball initiative is expected to save $250 million compared to alternative tools.

The DWP told the Los Angeles Times that the four-inch shade balls, made from the high-density polyethylene (the same material a one-gallon milk jug comes from) do not emit any chemicals and are perfectly safe. They are expected to last 10 years.

In addition to the L.A. Reservoir, the Upper Stone, Elysian and Ivanhoe reservoirs in California are also all covered with shade balls. The initiative dates back to 2008, when the DWP dropped 400,000 into Ivanhoe Reservoir, also in Los Angeles. Link

Another article here from The Guardian which states black is the only color to block UV, and stops 300m gallons of evaporation per year. Interesting.
RE tropicalanalystwx13 #136:

I'd think white balls would absorb less heat and be more effective at reducing evaporation too. I'm also not sure why absorbing UV rays is a benefit--I'd think UV rays would help reduce bacteria in the water. Never mind I read nrtiwlnvragn's link in #148 about bromate.

In today's 'bro' culture, preventing bromate is a good thing ;)
Quoting 159. TimSoCal:



I get the feeling this storm is like every tropical cyclone the GFS "sees" more than 2 weeks out - a ghost. But it would definitely be nice if a storm hit NorCal - they need the rain more than we do.



and this is a few weeks early
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, have been increasing in coverage since yesterday
but remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
a tropical cyclone to form from this system over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


we have invest 94E NOW
MIAMI maybe some rain tonight
Quoting 127. PlazaRed:


You are a bit borderline with the Western Sahara in the photo.
A lot of the clouded areas are Morocco which in the western parts is not really desert.
The areas in the north are parts of Algeria, Tunisia and Libya which are also not totally desert in the northern parts.
There has been a lot of flooding in parts of Morocco and those white blobs on the photos certainly look like thunder storms.
Having said that there are certainly an unusual amount of clouds in the area for mid August.
Agree - that is a broad geographical categorization, but I was more interested in drawing attention to the region as a whole. Even considering that much of the Moroccan area is not really desert, enough of the rest of the region seems impacted to make me think we may see a temporary reduction in SAL. To me it adds an interesting potential twist to next week's forecast...
18z run..

Deuces..

Quoting 165. hurricanes2018:

MIAMI maybe some rain tonight

Miami
Is
Acquiring
More
Inundation
Quoting 162. BaltimoreBrian:

RE tropicalanalystwx13 #136:

I'd think white balls would absorb less heat and be more effective at reducing evaporation too. I'm also not sure why absorbing UV rays is a benefit--I'd think UV rays would help reduce bacteria in the water. Never mind I read nrtiwlnvragn's link about bromate.


It looks like the color doesn't make much of a difference for evaporation. A quick search on scholar found a paper from 1966 running a similar experiment, and the main evaporation effect comes from wind and not heat. Link
Study: Phoenix is slowly sinking And I thought phoenixes were supposed to rise again!
new blog about invest 94E
Researchers say that while there's no need for residents of Phoenix to panic, parts of their city are slowly and unstoppably sinking into the ground. Land subsidence caused by the extraction of huge quantities of groundwater over the decades is to blame, and the Arizona State University researchers say it's causing some parts of the metropolitan area to sink by roughly 0.75 inches a year, Sonoran News reports.

Residents may not notice much change year to year, the researchers say, but over time, the problem will affect things like canals, utility lines, and sewers and, eventually, the foundations of buildings.

The depletion of groundwater has changed the sediment under the area, so the drop is irreversible. The lead researcher tells the Arizona Republic that the subsidence has "the potential to cause costly structural damages, and is something to keep an eye on." The sinking is happening at an uneven rate—with some areas actually rising a little—meaning floodwaters could cause major problems in affected areas.

Another problem, the lead researcher warns, is that the sediment changes have left the ground unable to store as much water as it used to. "We live in a desert, and our underground canteen is getting smaller," she tells the News.

The Republic notes that the problem is widespread across the US, with Denver, parts of California, and the New Jersey coast among the many areas starting to sink.
175. txjac
Quoting 174. hurricanes2018:

Researchers say that while there's no need for residents of Phoenix to panic, parts of their city are slowly and unstoppably sinking into the ground. Land subsidence caused by the extraction of huge quantities of groundwater over the decades is to blame, and the Arizona State University researchers say it's causing some parts of the metropolitan area to sink by roughly 0.75 inches a year, Sonoran News reports.

Residents may not notice much change year to year, the researchers say, but over time, the problem will affect things like canals, utility lines, and sewers and, eventually, the foundations of buildings.

The depletion of groundwater has changed the sediment under the area, so the drop is irreversible. The lead researcher tells the Arizona Republic that the subsidence has "the potential to cause costly structural damages, and is something to keep an eye on." The sinking is happening at an uneven rate—with some areas actually rising a little—meaning floodwaters could cause major problems in affected areas.

Another problem, the lead researcher warns, is that the sediment changes have left the ground unable to store as much water as it used to. "We live in a desert, and our underground canteen is getting smaller," she tells the News.

The Republic notes that the problem is widespread across the US, with Denver, parts of California, and the New Jersey coast among the many areas starting to sink.


This is caused by "us" thinking that we know better than Mother Nature. Phoenix probably shouldn't have been a "mecca" for people ...Mother Nature will always win.
AEI is now expected to surpass 4.20 sigma the highest value ever seen thus far and its still rising!

All the talk about California but I have to tell you the effects in FL could be worse. Likely significant flooding rains across FL with bouts of severe weather producing tornadoes like we see in the Midwest. During 1997 we saw several F3 & F4 tornadoes the night of February 22nd which killed nearly 50 people across the Orlando Metro.

Capital Weather Gang
@capitalweather
NOAA: El Niño is ‘significant and strengthening,' could rival strongest on record http://wapo.st/1TvJia5 pic.twitter.com/IFyyRpAwEx
Quoting 176. StormTrackerScott:

AEI is now expected to surpass 4.20 sigma the highest value ever seen thus far and its still rising!

All the talk about California but I have to tell you the effects in FL could be worse. Likely significant flooding rains across FL with bouts of severe weather producing tornadoes like we see in the Midwest. During 1997 we saw several F3 & F4 tornadoes the night of February 22nd which killed nearly 50 people across the Orlando Metro.

Capital Weather Gang
@capitalweather
NOAA: El Niño is ‘significant and strengthening,' could rival strongest on record http://wapo.st/1TvJia5 pic.twitter.com/IFyyRpAwEx




see post 156
Quoting 162. BaltimoreBrian:

RE tropicalanalystwx13 #136:

I'd think white balls would absorb less heat and be more effective at reducing evaporation too. I'm also not sure why absorbing UV rays is a benefit--I'd think UV rays would help reduce bacteria in the water. Never mind I read nrtiwlnvragn's link in #148 about bromate.

In today's 'bro' culture, preventing bromate is a good thing ;)


Dern it, I was gonna correct you with that info. >.<
Quoting 179. Astrometeor:



Dern it, I was gonna correct you with that info. >.<


Super El-Nino isn't hype now huh. Blog must be shacking their heads today in disbelief. This will be mark my words the top story in 2015!
181. beell
Quoting 101. georgevandenberghe:



Surprised the record number of 90F days in a year in South LA is only 52. Or is this the record for the number of consecutive ones?



Of course, Texas has to chime in:
At the big airport in Houston...

56 consecutive days of ≥90°F
(ok, a little white lie...one of those days @89°F)
11 of the last 17 of ≥100°F. The rest of the 17 were between 97-99°F

Some amateur video of the Chinese port explosion are on BBCs website... absolutely amazing that only 50 ppl are so far confirmed dead... reminds one of the Halifax explosion of ww1...
183. beell
Quoting 177. GeoffreyWPB:

Lake Worth resident, Apollo astronaut says aliens prevented nuclear war


I bet the aliens have relaxed their oversight of our planet to a certain extent after watching us dump 96 million plastic balls into a few small reservoirs in/around Los Angeles.
plastic...water...heat - awesome combo
Quoting 183. beell:



I bet the aliens have relaxed their oversight of our planet to a certain extent after watching us dump 96 million plastic balls into a few small reservoirs in/around Los Angeles.


Talk about killing a lake. Gotta have water though. Any organisms, fish, plant life will parish.
186. beell
Quoting 185. ProgressivePulse:



Talk about killing a lake. Gotta have water though. Any organisms, fish, plant life will parish.


I think these reservoirs are not much more than holding tanks for the public water supply. Anything organic is, for the most part-undesirable. Not a huge loss of an "unatural" resource.
:)
Quoting 154. ncstorm:

Hello all..

Busy day at work and just now able to log on..

18z Navgem..


Looks fishy.
Already 35" to 50" of rain so far this year from Tampa to Orlando with lots more rain to come the next 2 weeks.

Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:

Already 35" to 50" of rain so far this year from Tampa to Orlando with lots more rain to come the next 2 weeks.





all so look at the PAC NW and CA a ton of rain this will be a vary early event If this where too happen
Quoting 186. beell:



I think these reservoirs are not much more than holding tanks for the public water supply. Anything organic is, for the most part-undesirable. Not a huge loss of an "unatural" resource.
:)



Even the reservoirs hold a balance of life. Water+oxygen = life. I bet there are more cleansing organisms in the tanks that you would think.
I think the Atl. drought is going to come to an end soon...
The GOM will open up over the weekend as the ULL slides west with the ridge..

Quoting 190. ProgressivePulse:



Even the reservoirs hold a balance of life. Water+oxygen = life. I bet there are more cleansing organisms in the tanks that you would think.


Or hold that in your head for future reference when you see residents getting sick in the future.
Quoting 192. ProgressivePulse:

I think the Atl. drought is going to come to an end soon...


2016 is soon?
Quoting 189. Tazmanian:




all so look at the PAC NW and CA a ton of rain this will be a vary early event If this where too happen



Hi Taz, I posted on here earlier this morning the Sub Tropical jet is forecast to get entrenched across the South in the long range. Almost a split flow type look to the pattern with high pressure north with low pressure cutting underneath.



Quoting 196. StormTrackerScott:



2016 is soon?


we'll have some lookers this year, GOM, W-ATL is game on. Strong waves getting stronger, some will make it.
I wouldn't ever nay say the Atlantic on August 12th of any year.
I'ved lived long enough to know better.

If this entry and blog was around in 92', we hadn't had the "A" storm yet and well, you know who would be knitting, and who would be pronouncing the season, "Closed".

Climatology usually rules the roost.



201. beell
The beautiful and scenic Los Angeles Reservoir. The adjacent golf course is a nice touch.

Thats a Huge water hazard easily.

: )
Quoting 201. beell:

The beautiful and scenic Los Angeles Reservoir. The adjacent golf course is a nice touch.




Or the gas station across the street, lol.




watching!!
206. beell
Quoting 202. Patrap:

Thats a Huge water hazard easily.

: )
Quoting 203. ProgressivePulse:



Or the gas station across the street, lol.


Maybe a NASCAR track around the perimeter of the reservoir? Junior! Junior!

Yeah...I went too far with that one. Time to go into hiding.
we now have TD 16W 98W is not far be hid I think 98W is the one the GFS is forcasting for CA on today 18z runs
Quoting 198. StormTrackerScott:




Hi Taz, I posted on here earlier this morning the Sub Tropical jet is forecast to get entrenched across the South in the long range. Almost a split flow type look to the pattern with high pressure north with low pressure cutting underneath.






this is vary early for CA if this plans out
Quoting 200. Patrap:

I wouldn't ever nay say the Atlantic on August 12th of any year.
I'ved lived long enough to know better.

If this entry and blog was around in 92', we hadn't had the "A" storm yet and well, you know who would be knitting, and who would be pronouncing the season, "Closed".

Climatology usually rules the roost.




Sure and it is that 1992 isn't the only active / devastating season with no storms in the first 12 days...
Surf alert...Japan
Big pattern change coming, with the GFS/ECMWF showing the current trough off the western US slowly moving into the US over the next couple of days and resetting the 500 mb pattern over the US. If they're right (and the initialization over the last couple of days suggests they probably are), we should see a block setup over the eastern US for at least the short-term. They show it persisting for quite awhile, but there is the usual uncertainty in predictions that far out. Despite the trough sitting over the East for the last two months, I see little reason to doubt this will happen. The MDR will still be hostile, naturally, but it may allow any tropical waves to amplify closer to the US in a region of more favorable conditions as the deformation zone and shear are shunted away from the Bahamas/Florida/Gulf.

In short, there's not currently much model support for anything developing, but conditions will be more favorable as you get nearer the ridge axis if they're right about this setup. This would theoretically permit for a possible Gulf disturbance/low/would be cyclone to exist for as long as the pattern persists. TUTT's still gonna be strong, though. This block is also not favorable for recurves.
Quoting 212. KoritheMan:

Big pattern change coming, with the GFS/ECMWF showing the current trough off the western US slowly moving into the US over the next couple of days and resetting the 500 mb pattern over the US. If they're right (and the initialization over the last couple of days suggests they probably are), we should see a block setup over the eastern US for at least the short-term. They show it persisting for quite awhile, but there is the usual uncertainty in predictions that far out. Despite the trough sitting over the East for the last two months, I see little reason to doubt this will happen. The MDR will still be hostile, naturally, but it may allow any tropical waves to amplify closer to the US in a region of more favorable conditions as the deformation zone and shear are shunted away from the Bahamas/Florida/Gulf.

In short, there's not currently much model support for anything developing, but conditions will be more favorable as you get nearer the ridge axis if they're right about this setup. This would theoretically permit for a possible Gulf disturbance/low/would be cyclone to exist for as long as the pattern persists. TUTT's still gonna be strong, though. This block is also not favorable for recurves.
Sounds like the bad news I don't want to hear... but unfortunately entirely too plausible for my tastes....

How you, Kori?
Quoting 213. BahaHurican:

Sounds like the bad news I don't want to hear... but unfortunately entirely too plausible for my tastes....

How you, Kori?


Says you. I still have $400 in chase money I haven't even used yet. And I was almost ready to give up (still kinda am tbh). :p

I'm fine, actually. You might be happy to hear that I'm finally about to take the GED. I'm literally just trying to conjure up the money to do it since they upped it to $90 which I don't immediately have. >_>
Blobus giganticus

Quoting 214. KoritheMan:



Says you. I still have $400 in chase money I haven't even used yet. And I was almost ready to give up (still kinda am tbh). :p

I'm fine, actually. You might be happy to hear that I'm finally about to take the GED. I'm literally just trying to conjure up the money to do it since they upped it to $90 which I don't immediately have. >_>


Come to FL to chase tornadoes this Winter. Should be interesting around here especially as February hits. Alarms already being sounded here on this news in Orlando on this upcoming Winter/Spring.
Quoting 217. StormTrackerScott:



Come to FL to chase tornadoes this Winter. Should be interesting around here especially as February hits. Alarms already being sounded here on this news in Orlando on this upcoming Winter/Spring.




The 1998 and 2007 outbreaks come to mind. When that jet goes that far south, florida gets the nadoes. Both were in el nino years. I remember being in florida in 2007 during that one. So much lightninh and really loud thunder.
good night all

if your looking for other ad blocker then check out adguard it may be some in you been looking for it works well with edge and I find it even better then ad block pluse


Link
Quoting 219. Tazmanian:

good night all

if your looking for other ad blocker then check out adguard it may be some in you been looking for it works well with edge and I find it even better then ad block pluse


Link



Nighty night taz!
Quoting 215. Grothar:

Blobus giganticus





On blob watch i see? It's that time of year though.
Well, i'll talk to guys later! Goodnight!
The JTWC has upgraded 97W to Tropical Depression Sixteen-W. Conditions are only expected to favor steady intensification over the next two days or so, but all bets are off thereafter as what should be "Goni" tracks within an environment of low wind shear (with dual outflow channels), sufficient moisture, warm sea surface temperatures, and adequate ocean heat content. As long as the system does not swell to the size that Chan-hom and Soudelor reached, I see no reason to believe this won't be a super typhoon at peak.

Quoting 214. KoritheMan:



Says you. I still have $400 in chase money I haven't even used yet. And I was almost ready to give up (still kinda am tbh). :p

I'm fine, actually. You might be happy to hear that I'm finally about to take the GED. I'm literally just trying to conjure up the money to do it since they upped it to $90 which I don't immediately have. >_>
I am indeed happy to hear that and would willingly send you $90 if I wasn't so broke this month... lol :-).. . As for the chase dough, I have no problem with you expending it on a storm that has NOT already bombed out and wiped New Providence off the map ... lol
Quoting 218. TimTheWxMan:




The 1998 and 2007 outbreaks come to mind. When that jet goes that far south, florida gets the nadoes. Both were in el nino years. I remember being in florida in 2007 during that one. So much lightninh and really loud thunder.
2007 was also the year of Dean and Felix, 2 cat 5s in a 15 storm season. So you might understand why some of us have not yet written off the season. We're not saying it'll be similar, just that there's still a lot of season left....
NEW RECORD WARMEST WATER TEMPERATURE IN MONTEREY BAY: The record all-time warmest water temperature in Monterey Bay of 69 F / 21 C was set on August 12, 2015. The previous record of 68 F / 20 C was set in July of 2014. Monterey Bay is off the coast of California.

Link
Quoting 226. DCSwithunderscores:

NEW RECORD WARMEST WATER TEMPERATURE IN MONTEREY BAY: The record all-time warmest water temperature in Monterey Bay of 69 F / 26 C was set on August 12, 2014. The previous record of 68 F / 25 C was set in July of 2014. Monterey Bay is off the coast of California.

Link


That should be 2015, right?
Quoting 216. Grothar:



That wave killed over 20 people the other day in eastern Sudan.
Quoting 227. Astrometeor:



That should be 2015, right?


yes, typing mistake, fixed
00Z GFS :(
Hey guys I've noticed something very interesting with GFS CMC/GEM and NAVGEM from day before yesterday maybe earlier up until now more so from yesterday up to latest 00 run
Hmm
Quoting 233. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys I've noticed something very interesting with GFS CMC/GEM and NAVGEM from day before yesterday maybe earlier up until now more so from yesterday up to latest 00 run
Hmm
What is that?
Also just noticed UKmet is also starting to pick up on the same thing as GFS CMC/GEM and NAVGEM
237. JRRP
Can you guys find the low? ;)
Quoting 236. wunderkidcayman:

Also just noticed UKmet is also starting to pick up on the same thing as GFS CMC/GEM and NAVGEM
You will love this.
Quoting 241. Gearsts:

You will love this.



Maybe maybe not we will see but hey we got what... Hmm 9 months to go
243. JRRP


see you later
Ok let's take the models and put them into tracks and for 00Z this is what we got

Not bad to be honest




Hmm the trend has certainly been further W and more deeper in the Caribbean and surviving more
Also this was yesterday



Quite a difference

Also unlike the last day or two more models are jumping on it



"16W and 17W"

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16
15:00 PM JST August 14 2015
=========================
In Wake Island Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.1N 163.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 15.3N 162.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
15:00 PM JST August 14 2015
=========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.4N 149.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 13.9N 149.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
Invest 94E

Invest 94E
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

Last Updated Aug 14, 2015 06 GMT
Location 12.5 107.3W Movement WNW
Wind 25 MPH Pressure: --
Quoting 250. Gearsts:




Nah
Strong El Nino Likely to Peak Late Fall-Early Winter, NOAA Forecasters Say

Forecaster consensus unaminously favors a strong El Niño at its peak in the late fall and early winter, according to an updated forecast released Thursday by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The prediction for a strong El Nino at its peak is based on the latest guidance from computer models, which all forecast a strong El Nino during that period of time. NOAA also said that all signs in the atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean point to a significant and strengthening El Niño.

El Niño now has an 85 percent chance of lasting into early spring 2016. This is an increase of five percent over NOAA's last El Niño update in July. NOAA also continues to say that there is a greater than 90 percent chance of El Niño lasting through the upcoming winter.

El Niño is an anomalous, yet periodic, warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. For reasons still not well understood, every 2-7 years, this patch of ocean warms for six to 18 months.

The fact that El Niño is likely to last into spring is important for the United States since precipitation and temperature impacts from a moderate-to-strong El Niño are typically most noticeable during the colder months. We have more on what those impacts are later in this article.

NOAA reports that sea-surface temperature anomalies increased in July in the Niño 3.4 region. This is the middle portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is most commonly used to measure the intensity of an El Niño event.

As mentioned above, NOAA's forecaster consensus is for a strong El Niño at its peak, perhaps the strongest since the 1997-1998 episode and, thus, may play a stronger role in your weather.

A 'Sea Change' in Atmospheric Circulation
Typically, easterly trade winds near the equator pile warm water into the western Pacific Ocean. Conversely, the resultant upwelling, or upward movement of deep, cold ocean water keeps the eastern and central Pacific Ocean cooler.

Thunderstorms require at least some degree of warm, humid air near the surface, so they're more numerous and persistent over the western Pacific warm pool, and much less so in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

During an El Niño, these trade winds weaken, and may at times reverse from west to east. Warmer western Pacific water then slowly sloshes back toward the central, even eastern Pacific Ocean in what's known as an equatorial-trapped Kelvin wave.

Therefore, the most persistent thunderstorms will shift from the western to the eastern and central Pacific Ocean in an El Niño.

This trade wind reversal and the resulting reorientation of thunderstorms changes the atmospheric circulation not just over this swath of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but can also have far-reaching impacts on the atmospheric circulation.

Weather Impacts
First, keep two things in mind throughout this discussion of potential impacts:

1) El Niño is not the sole driver of the atmosphere at any time. Day-to-day variability in the weather pattern, including blocking patterns, forcing from climate change and other factors all work together with El Niño to determine the overall weather experienced over the timeframe of a few months.

2) No two El Niños are exactly alike. The intensity matters for impacts.

El Niño's clearest impact on northern hemisphere weather patterns occurs from late fall through winter.

Looking at past moderate-strong El Ninos, here are the upshots for temperatures and precipitation from late fall through winter in the U.S.:

- Wetter: Southern U.S. from California to the Carolinas then up parts of the East Coast

- Drier: Parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northwest and Northern Rockies

- Cooler: Desert Southwest, Southern Plains, northern Gulf Coast

- Warmer: Northern tier of states from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast

Note these are impacts that are typically expected, but they aren't always the rule.

Residents of the western states may remember the flooding that struck California during the strong 1997-98 El Nino. In February 1998, a series of storms caused an estimated $550 million in damage and killed 17 people in California. A total of 35 counties were declared federal disaster areas. This fits into the bucket of the wetter-than-average winter you would typically expect in a moderate or strong El Niño.

Interestingly, during the previous winter there was also major flooding in California and it was even more costly with a total price tag of $1.8 billion, according to Jan Null, a consulting meteorologist in California. However, El Niño was not present that winter and rainfall for the season was near average. The flooding was the result of excessive rainfall that fell in a short time period combined with snowmelt from late December to early January.

The weak El Niño in the winter of 2006-07 provided a totally different story than what we saw in the very strong 1997-98 El Niño winter.

California had its 23rd driest winter season on record when looking at the three-month period from December 2006 to February 2007. In Los Angeles, the entire water year from July 2006 to June 2007 was the driest on record with just 3.21 inches of rainfall.


What About Hurricane Season?
There is a body of scientific evidence linking the occurrence of El Niño with increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Basin, which is one factor – along with dry air – that limits the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones.As of this writing, we are seeing those hostile conditions in parts of the Atlantic Basin.
Dry air has dominated from the southern Gulf of Mexico to east of the Lesser Antilles during the first two months of the hurricane season. Wind shear has been and remains strong from the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico to the far western and eastern Atlantic.
259. beell

08/14 00Z GFS 200 mb winds, heights @ 240 hrs

Only a curiosity at this point.

Models are consistent (heard that before, yes?) in forming an area of low pressure embedded in the southward suppressed ITCZ and bringing it into the Caribbean next week.

This low-latitude track is not a bad path for a disturbance. Out of the shear and SAL. Close to the moisture.

A TUTT to the north to provide ventilation to a surface low underneath a narrow upper anticyclone.

Hey! It looks good on paper...
The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal meteorologists say.

But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie, experts say.

"A big El Nino guarantees nothing," said Mike Halper, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day."
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
262. MahFL
Quoting 185. ProgressivePulse:



Talk about killing a lake. Gotta have water though. Any organisms, fish, plant life will parish.


It's not a lake, it's a man made reservoir.
263. vis0
Quoting 20. Tazmanian:




I don't want EL nino too be shoter thank you after be dry for 4 years CA really needs too have flooding rains
What the western USofA needs is a constant event of soft to moderate rains for 6 months, as if an Extended Nino in that strong did not come as a tall deep glass (bounty) of moisture, but strong as in a V E R Y wide shallow plate (bounty) of moisture. Some flooding would occur but it would be the best scenario leading to 2-3 times the normal (128 yr avg) rainfall for the 6 month period, lets observe. 

No(paper towels)...yes(lotsa soft rain)...Taz, the quicker picker upper...
264. vis0

Quoting 69. Bucsboltsfan:



No because I said it first:)
(might have been posted - JUST CATCHING UP) but when one posts "first" as to any weather event please remember to add this " ≈ " before 1st ,  it means 1st after Grothar.

So the correct comment by Bucsboltsfan would be "No because I said it ≈first:).  : º P
I've just updated this blog post on El Niño to clarify the difference between the PDF-corrected and non-PDF-corrected versions of the NOAA CFSv2 forecasts for the Niño3.4 region. In my original post, I inadvertently made an apples-and-oranges comparison between these two, and concluded there had been a substantial drop from July to August in what the CFSv2 was predicting for Niño3.4. In fact, both versions have been relatively consistent--it's just that the PDF correction tamps down the amplitude quite a bit. Apologies for the error! No matter how you slice it, it will be hard to avoid a record-setting El Niño if the multi-model consensus is correct.

Bob