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South Asia's Deadly Rains of 2015; Tropical Storm Watch in Hawaii

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2015

A multi-week series of disastrous rains, floods, and mudslides has taken more than 400 lives and affected millions in a broad swath from Pakistan to Vietnam over the last several weeks. This is the height of the South Asia and Southeast Asia monsoon season, when life-giving rains sweep from the Indian Ocean across India and neighboring countries after the parched, scorching conditions that typify spring. Monsoon-related floods often produce hundreds of deaths across India each year. This year’s Indian monsoon has brought an distinct patchwork of impacts. Although several regions have been affected by torrential downpours, others are wrestling with unusually dry conditions, in a monsoon that’s actually been skimpy for the nation as a whole.


Figure 1. An aerial view shows floodwaters inundating houses and vegetation in Kalay, upper Myanmar's Sagaing region, on August 3, 2015. Image credit: Ye Aung Thu/AFP/Getty Images.

The most widespread flood impacts have been in the Bay of Bengal region, from far eastern India across parts of Pakistan and Myanmar. Three weeks of flooding across five provinces of Pakistan have killed at least 151 people, and the government of Myanmar is seeking international assistance, as more than a million acres of farmland have been inundated and at least 46 people have died. In the South Bengal state of eastern India, floods have taken at least 83 lives, and more than 300,000 homes have been destroyed or seriously damaged. Further west, in the central state of Madhya Pradesh, flash flooding was the apparent cause of two train derailments that led to at least 29 deaths.


Figure 2. Two Indian passenger trains lay next to each other following a derailment after flash floods struck a bridge outside the town of Harda in Madhya Pradesh state on August 5, 2015. At least 27 people died as a result of the derailment. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

The worst of the rains were associated with Tropical Cyclone Komen. A weak but wet system, with top 3-minute sustained winds of only 45 mph, Komen moved inland over Bangladesh on July 29 but left behind a remnant low that drifted west near the India-Bangladesh border last weekend, according to weather.com. Moist southwesterly flow on Komen’s east flank led to huge rainfall totals, especially along the hilly southeast coast of Bangladesh, where several locations reported between 40” and 50” for the 10-day period from July 24 to August 2.

A separate area of monsoon-related flooding has affected more than a million people in Pakistan and far western India. At least 166 deaths have been reported in Pakistan, where catastrophic flooding in 2010--the nation’s worst natural disaster on record--caused more than 1,700 deaths and left some 11 million people homeless.


Figure 3. A Pakistani resident drinks water from a hand-pump at a flooded area in Nowshera district, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, on August 3, 2015. Image credit: A. Majeed/AFP/Getty Images.

India’s monsoon falling short of average
Despite the flooding disasters scattered across parts of India, the nation is actually seeing a mix of drought and deluge this summer, leaning toward the dry side. The total amount of rainfall in the 2015 monsoon season to date across India (June 1 - August 11) has been only 91% of the long-term average. The nationally weighted rainfall total for the Jun 1 - Aug 11 period was 501.8 mm (19.76”), compared to a typical value to date of 553.1 mm (21.78”). The 91% value is only a slight improvement over the start-of-monsoon outlook from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which called for 88% of average over the entire monsoon season (June-September). The driest areas have been concentrated along the nation’s northern tier, from Punjab to Assam states (20% to 40% below average) and in the southwest peninsula (20% to more than 50% below average). The central state of Telangana is making contingency plans for drought response should the second half of monsoon season turn out as disappointing as the first half did. In a mid-monsoon update on August 3, the IMD held to its 88% outlook. Such a deficit can cause severe stress on agriculture and the power grid, which relies heavily on hydroelectric power. However, a 12% reduction in rains would not rank in the top five for worst monsoons on record (see below).




Figure 4. Cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 11 across India has produced a patchwork of above- and below-average accumulations compared to a typical year. Within each state, the average rainfall from June 1 to August 11 is shown at bottom, in millimeters, with the actual 2015 total at top and the percentage anomaly following in parentheses. A total of 16 states have deficient rainfall, while 5 have an excess and 15 are near normal. The nationwide total rainfall for the period was 91% of average. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

El Niño and the Indian monsoon
In recent decades, El Niño has been closely associated with deficient monsoon rainfall over India, so this year’s underwhelming rainfall is not a total surprise. But the relationship isn’t iron-clad. Monsoon rainfall was 2% above average in 1997 even as a strong El Niño very similar to the current one was building, and rainfall deficits are possible even without El Niño. El Niño Modoki, the type where warming is focused in the central tropical Pacific rather than toward the east, tends to be more effective at suppressing the monsoon than a classic east-Pacific El Niño. The monsoon is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, measured by the east-west difference in sea-surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD event tends to enhance moisture in the southwesterly flow over India that brings monsoon rain.

If the 2015 monsoon does end up falling short of the norm, it will be for the second consecutive year, as the monsoon of 2014 produced only 88% of average rainfall. Since most significant El Niño events last just a year, it’s unusual to have two low-rainfall years in a row. The last time two consecutive Indian monsoons saw below-average rain was during the two-year El Niño event of 1986 and 1987. There’s also marked multi-decadal variability in monsoon rains, according to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. From 1921 to 1964, only three monsoon seasons produced less than 90% of average rainfall. Over the following period, 1965 - 1989, 10 of 24 years fell short of the 90% mark. The most devastating monsoon rainfall deficits since modern records began were as follows:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

Averaged across the globe, the planet’s major monsoons appear to be collectively producing more rain in recent decades. A 2014 study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found evidence for increased global monsoon precipitation between 1979 and 2011, but with substantial year-to-year variability in the mix. Theory, modeling, and observations all support the general trend toward intensified precipitation events in many areas, together with exacerbated impacts when drought does strike (the “wet get wetter, dry get drier” concept). For more on the dynamics that drive the Indian monsoon, and its relationship to climate change in India, see this 2013 post from Jeff Masters.

Bob Henson

Tropical Storm Watch posted for Hawaii's Big Island for Hurricane Hilda
In the Eastern Pacific, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii as Hurricane Hilda heads northwest at 6 mph towards Hawaii. Hilda is under high wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, and the shear will increase to 30 - 40 knots by Wednesday. Although Hilda has remained remarkably intact in the face of this high shear, the storm's increasingly degraded appearance on Tuesday morning gives me confidence that the increasing shear will cause the storm to unravel rather quickly. I expect that Hilda will weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday evening; the Tuesday morning runs of our two most reliable models for predicting hurricane tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed Hilda weakening to a tropical depression before reaching Hawaii on Thursday. However, even if Hilda dissipates before reaching Hawaii, it will still be capable of bringing dangerous flooding rains to the islands, particularly to the Big Island. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at Hilda in his Tuesday afternoon post.


Figure 5. Latest satellite image of Hilda.

In the Western Pacific, the European and GFS models predict that twin tropical storms will form in the waters midway between Hawaii and the Philippines' Luzon Island this weekend. Both of the these storms will have the potential to cause trouble for Asia late next week.

Jeff Masters


Hurricane Flood Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
A multi-week series of disastrous rains, floods, and mudslides has taken more than 400 lives and affected millions in a broad swath from Pakistan to Vietnam over the last several weeks. This is the height of the South Asia and Southeast Asia monsoon season, when life-giving rains sweep from the Indian Ocean across India and neighboring countries after the parched, scorching conditions that typify spring. Monsoon-related floods often produce hundreds of deaths across India each year. This year’s Indian monsoon has brought an distinct patchwork of impacts. Although several regions have been affected by torrential downpours, others are wrestling with unusually dry conditions, in a monsoon that’s actually been skimpy for the nation as a whole.

thanks doc.......since this is a tropical blog and most of us share an interest of the tropics.....it's easy to forget that floods and heat cause more deaths than tropical systems
Thanks Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson!
Speaking of rain ...just read this:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1016 am CDT Tuesday Aug 11 2015

Discussion...
only minor changes made to forecast with this update. Did extend
the chance of isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon a little
farther west to include greater Houston area
. Model soundings for
Houston hobby after 4 PM for example show cape...no cap and an
inverted v sounding. The dry subcloud layer...steep lapse
rates...suggest potential for strong downdrafts and outflows from
any storms that do form...and hence a risk of some gusty downburst
winds. 46
Thanks, Bob for putting the spotlight on S. Asia. Wow, too much rain or too little. Tough times for the heavily-populated stretch along the foot of the Himalaya Range. Low regional rainfall will make life difficult if combined with low runoff from the mountains (just ask Californians).
When I was in India in 2001, the people I talked to all stated that they'd rather see floods than a failed monsoon. There's a fatalism that comes from living in India. Floods occur somewhere in India on a regular basis, some worse than others. If a floods from a strong monsoon kills thousands, that's bad, no doubt about it. If the monsoon fails, it affects hundreds of millions. The monsoon is truly embedded in the psyche of each and every Indian.

BTW, the same spotty monsoon pattern is occurring in Nepal, with the most productive agricultural areas in the Terai, in the plains bordering India, suffering the worst drought. The Terai is where all of Nepal's rice is grown, and it's the staple food of the country. The availability and price of rice has toppled governments in Nepal before.
From the previous blog, since I was the second to last post, and my forecasts are rarely right....
================================================= =========================
As my deluxe self correctly predicted last night, I didn't get a drop of rain from an impressive MCV that vanished into thin air as it got to me. Actually, it didn't vanish. It just vanished here. As soon as it crossed over into Georgia, it reformed and intensified again. At 3:00 in the morning. There are times I feel like I just can't win.

Today, however, things are going to be different. The "diffuse boundary/pressure trough", in the words of the crack team at Birmingham, is going to head right at me. I have a 70% chance of rain today, much better than the 50% chance I had yesterday. I can't wait for the heavy rain to set in.

BWAHAhahahaha...ha...ha...

I think I'm starting get a little unhinged from the heat.
Quoting 356. kmanislander:



Amazing that this is even a topic for debate. There are SAL outbreaks every year to a greater or lesser degree regardless of El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions. Typically, SAL is strongest early in the season and then tails off as we enter the peak months.





A logical and most excellent comment If I may say so,

So, are the Vintages safe Kman?

I worry about those things as we may get down that way before fall.

: )

As far as activity in the overall Atlantic Basin,


..itsa Jungle...out dere'


Quoting 7. sar2401:

From the previous blog, since I was the second to last post, and my forecasts are rarely right....
================================================= =========================
As my deluxe self correctly predicted last night, I didn't get a drop of rain from an impressive MCV that vanished into thin air as it got to me. Actually, it didn't vanish. It just vanished here. As soon as it crossed over into Georgia, it reformed and intensified again. At 3:00 in the morning. There are times I feel like I just can't win.

Today, however, things are going to be different. The "diffuse boundary/pressure trough", in the words of the crack team at Birmingham, is going to head right at me. I have a 70% chance of rain today, much better than the 50% chance I had yesterday. I can't wait for the heavy rain to set in.

BWAHAhahahaha...ha...ha...

I think I'm starting get a little unhinged from the heat.


I can't believe you didn't get any rain from that. The storms over Birmingham looked borderline severe and the entire line was heading right for you. I mean, you're not that far from B'Ham. Crazy
Quoting 9. tampabaymatt:



I can't believe you didn't get any rain from that. The storms over Birmingham looked borderline severe and the entire line was heading right for you. I mean, you're not that far from B'Ham. Crazy

I'm sure if our SAR would travel to India right now, the monsoon would stop immediately :-)

And thanks for the very good update, doc'n bob!
Dust storm heading towards phoenix. Mesa got a 60 mph storm, the airport got 35 mph, and the storm that kicked up the dust was just south of the radar site.
Quoting 10. barbamz:


I'm sure if our SAR would travel to India right now, the monsoon would stop immediately ;-)

And thanks for the very good update, doc'n bob!


Here's what I don't understand. Supposedly, the trough that is going to bring flooding rains back to Tampa on Thursday is sitting on or near Sar's area. Yet, look on the radar and you can see hardly anything is happening. Yet, when the same trough sags further south over C FL, it brings flooding rains. Why aren't the rains heavy where the trough is now? My guess is it has something to do with the influence of the Gulf, but I don't know the answer to that.
Quoting 11. TimTheWxMan:

Dust storm heading towards phoenix. Mesa got a 60 mph storm, the airport got 35 mph, and the storm that kicked up the dust was just south of the radar site.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-AZ1253B9F1001C.DustStormWarning.12 53B9F13BE0AZ.PSRNPWPSR.52992cf3bfba871449d564076a2 97b01 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 09:47 MST on 08-11-2015
Effective: 09:47 MST on 08-11-2015
Expires: 11:00 MST on 08-11-2015
Event: Dust Storm Warning
Alert:

...DUST STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* AFFECTED AREA...THE ENTIRE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...NORTHWEST
PINAL COUNTY...AND SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY.

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH 11 AM.

* WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...NUMEROUS REPORTS RECEIVED OF NEAR ZERO.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS...LIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS
BECOMING AIRBORNE
...HEALTH IMPACTS DUE TO DUST EXPOSURE.

Instructions: BE READY FOR A SUDDEN DROP IN VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO. IF YOU ENCOUNTER BLOWING DUST OR BLOWING SAND ON THE ROADWAY OR SEE IT APPROACHING...PULL OFF THE ROAD AS FAR AS POSSIBLE AND PUT YOUR VEHICLE IN PARK. TURN THE LIGHTS ALL THE WAY OFF AND KEEP YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE PEDAL. WITH STRONG WIDESPREAD WINDS...SOME LIGHT DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...PULL ASIDE...STAY ALIVE.
Target Area:
Greater Phoenix Area
Northwest and North Central Pinal County
Southwest Maricopa County
Forecast Office: NWS Phoenix (Central Arizona and California Desert)

I like how one of the "Impacts" is that light unsecured objects may become airborne... which could lead to.. impacts, especially with zero vis :(
dry and stable air has almost gone from the carib and gomex. it is now being reduced in the area north of 13N and from the lesser antilles eastward towards africa. maybe things are about to change.
17. vis0
~3 days of Hildaimage host

When the time-stamp area turns yellowish that means missing frames are to follow which is why Hilda appears to suddenly jump.
Quoting 16. stoormfury:

dry and stable air has almost gone from the carib and gomex. it is now being reduced in the area north of 13N and from the lesser antilles eastward towards africa. maybe things are about to change.

The same areas that have been dominated by much above average to record shear.
PERSEID METEOR SHOWER--THIS WEEK: Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Forecasters expect meteor rates to peak at 100+ per hour on the night of Aug. 12-13 when our planet passes through the heart of the debris stream. Perseids produce more fireballs than any other meteor shower of the year, so stay tuned for a good show.
that too will change and there will be an average hurricane season despite the the so called super El Nino.
10 years after katrina......


amazing video of flash flooding pushing cars down the road....i've seen this once here in el paso,..but it was just a couple of feet and then stopped......nothing compared to this event....

Link
Past 14 day precipitation estimates really show the sharp cut off near Fort Myers leaving southern Florida very dry. Also other areas of Florida have been below average the past two weeks.
Also take note of the heavy precipitation from the Tampa area up into the Big Bend Region.
Quoting 12. tampabaymatt:



Here's what I don't understand. Supposedly, the trough that is going to bring flooding rains back to Tampa on Thursday is sitting on or near Sar's area. Yet, look on the radar and you can see hardly anything is happening. Yet, when the same trough sags further south over C FL, it brings flooding rains. Why aren't the rains heavy where the trough is now? My guess is it has something to do with the influence of the Gulf, but I don't know the answer to that.


According to the NWS Melbourne discussion, the trough will combine with increasing moisture while draped over central Florida, I would assume that is what is lacking at the moment. Also, the discussion refers to the feature as a frontal boundary that will become a trough of low pressure as it move into Florida which suggests that at the moment it is merely a boundary between two different air masses.

"A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD TO THE
NRN GULF COAST WL NUDGE SWD INTO N FL IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH.
INCRSG RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR AS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CONUS
AND AN ASCD DIGGING UPR WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SFC TROUGH N OF AREA
WL COMBINE WITH INCRSG MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE STEERING PATTERN TO
RAISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHCS ESP OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL."
Quoting 22. ricderr:

amazing video of flash flooding pushing cars down the road....i've seen this once here in el paso,..but it was just a couple of feet and then stopped......nothing compared to this event....

Link


I saw that this morning on the news. I kept thinking if they had only parked their car in the driveway or moved the car to the driveway once the flooding started. I'm sure they never expected a car to come washing down the street.
i found this quite interesting.......


The 1996-97 El Niño was the first to be predicted by NOAA, and this alert allowed agencies including FEMA, Army Corps of Engineers, USGS, USBR, EPA, and the State of California to effectively prepare and manage the impending conditions. In California alone, the preparation was thought to reduce the damages from $2.2 billion (1982-83 El Niño) to $1.1 billion (in 1996-97). There is no substitution for preparedness.
earthquake&drought.sad.times.nepal
I saw that this morning on the news. I kept thinking if they had only parked their car in the driveway or moved the car to the driveway once the flooding started. I'm sure they never expected a car to come washing down the street.


i think at that point it might have been too dangerous...i've actually been knocked off my feet by about 8" deep rapidly running water
Quoting 23. Sfloridacat5:

Past 14 day precipitation estimates really show the sharp cut off near Fort Myers leaving southern Florida very dry. Also other areas of Florida have been below average the past two weeks.
Also take note of the heavy precipitation from the Tampa area up into the Big Bend Region.



This map demonstrates perfectly what the rain situation has been like in the Orlando area. Though rain has been almost absent here in the past 9 days, we did get good rain for half a month before that (the map caught the last 5-6 days of the wet period). It also shows how several complexes of precipitation fell apart or failed to progress eastward just west of the area.

Our "plight" is nowhere near what parts of South FL are dealing with though. Hopefully, the whole state including the Tampa area can get some normal rainfall for the rest of the rainy season. The watering i have carried out just in the past 3 days probably will add $25-$30 to the monthly utility bill. Gardening is a passion of mine, so I don't mind, but I just assume it rain and do something fun with the money instead:)
Quoting 30. HurrMichaelOrl:



This map demonstrates perfectly what the rain situation has been like in the Orlando area. Though rain has been almost absent here in the past 9 days, we did get good rain for half a month before that (the map caught the last 5-6 days of the wet period). It also shows how several complexes of precipitation fell apart or failed to progress eastward just west of the area.

Our "plight" is nowhere near what parts of South FL are dealing with though. I did see someone located in the Miami area post on an orchid forum about damage to a delicate mini orchid due to "all the wind and storms", so that is encouraging. Hopefully, the whole state including the Tampa area can get some normal rainfall for the rest of the rainy season. The watering i have carried out just in the past 3 days probably will add $25-$30 to the monthly utility bill. Gardening is a passion of mine, so I don't mind, but I just assume it rain and do something fun with the money instead:)
Quoting 8. Patrap:






A logical and most excellent comment If I may say so,

So, are the Vintages safe Kman?

I worry about those things as we may get down that way before fall.

: )

As far as activity in the overall Atlantic Basin,


..itsa Jungle...out dere'





Hey, great to hear from you. Yes, the Vintages are safe and being enjoyed on a regular basis :-).

If you do plan to come down you must let me know beforehand so we can do dinner while you are here. I will message you my cell #.
This should start the conversation:

Global warming is not caused by man.
And - the globe is not warming.
Man did NOT walk on the moon, the movie "Capricorn One" proved that.
Elvis is still alive - I swear it, I saw it on "Married With Children"
The earth is flat, that's too easy to prove
Ever think that maybe there was three shooters and not two?
Jurassic El Niño LOL
The Tampa Bay Bucs WILL win the Super Bowl this season.......


in the blog tradition of ignoring all things science may i say.....

of course the earth is flat....have you ever seen a round map???????

WHAT ABOUT A GLOBE?

it's a globe silly...not a map....geesh

personally i have to stop at two shooters....can't drive after three

it's a darn shame that the bucs have a better chance this year than my niners

man did not walk on the moon is a true statement....they hopped

ok...i must admit...i am elvis...it's now on the internet...so it must be true



RapidSCat showing a weak low near 8N 38W with 30knot winds to the southwest of this system. just a AOI
Quoting 29. ricderr:

I saw that this morning on the news. I kept thinking if they had only parked their car in the driveway or moved the car to the driveway once the flooding started. I'm sure they never expected a car to come washing down the street.


i think at that point it might have been too dangerous...i've actually been knocked off my feet by about 8" deep rapidly running water


Yeah, I know these events can happen very rapidly too. But from now on, I would be afraid to park my car in the street, if I lived at that location.
t.w.thirsty...nhc..A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
44W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY
EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEING CONFIRMED BY THE PRESENCE OF
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY. THESE
CONDITIONS SUPPORT LACK OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

Quite an outburst of tropical moisture all along the Westafrican coast. (Click to enlarge).
Saved loop. Source.




Most of the stuff will end up somewhere in Western Europe/Western Mediterranean area though.
Afternoon all. Very interesting discussion of the Indian monsoon.

IIRC, there is some support for the idea that most AEWs originate over India...
Developmental GEFS indicating a weak system at 120 hours. Developmental GEFS increases horizontal resolution from 52km to 34km for the first 192 hours, then from 70km to 52km for the remainder of the run. Vertical levels increase from 42 to 64 for all time frames.

EMC FY15 Upgrade Review


Quoting 40. nrtiwlnvragn:

Developmental GEFS indicating a weak system at 120 hours. Developmental GEFS increases horizontal resolution from 52km to 34km for the first 192 hours, then from 70km to 52km for the remainder of the run. Vertical levels increase from 42 to 64 for all time frames.

EMC FY15 Upgrade Review



Looks like more rain near the CVs in the short to medium range...
Quoting 24. Naga5000:



According to the NWS Melbourne discussion, the trough will combine with increasing moisture while draped over central Florida, I would assume that is what is lacking at the moment. Also, the discussion refers to the feature as a frontal boundary that will become a trough of low pressure as it move into Florida which suggests that at the moment it is merely a boundary between two different air masses.

"A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD TO THE
NRN GULF COAST WL NUDGE SWD INTO N FL IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH.
INCRSG RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR AS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CONUS
AND AN ASCD DIGGING UPR WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SFC TROUGH N OF AREA
WL COMBINE WITH INCRSG MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE STEERING PATTERN TO
RAISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHCS ESP OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL."


Pwat's are increasing now actually from 1.6" to 1.8" later today. With 2.0" to 2.1" PWAT's tomorrow. Here is the WPC forecast thru day 3. Pretty impressive. 0Z run is still updating.

Quoting 30. HurrMichaelOrl:



This map demonstrates perfectly what the rain situation has been like in the Orlando area. Though rain has been almost absent here in the past 9 days, we did get good rain for half a month before that (the map caught the last 5-6 days of the wet period). It also shows how several complexes of precipitation fell apart or failed to progress eastward just west of the area.

Our "plight" is nowhere near what parts of South FL are dealing with though. Hopefully, the whole state including the Tampa area can get some normal rainfall for the rest of the rainy season. The watering i have carried out just in the past 3 days probably will add $25-$30 to the monthly utility bill. Gardening is a passion of mine, so I don't mind, but I just assume it rain and do something fun with the money instead:)


@ my location no rain since last Monday. WPC looks like it's about to drop 5" totals on this 0Z run across interior of FL. So far 2.36" thru day 3.
From Tampa NWS:
“Thanks to over 18 inches of rain between July 24 and August 8, the January 1 to August 10 total of 49.29 inches at Tampa is the 3rd wettest for this time period since records began in 1891, behind only 1957 and 1959. 1959 went on to be the wettest year on record with 76.57 inches and 1957 second wettest at 70.43 inches.”

Seems like we’re on pace for 2015 to be the wettest year in Tampa history.
Quoting 44. tampabaymatt:

From Tampa NWS:
“Thanks to over 18 inches of rain between July 24 and August 8, the January 1 to August 10 total of 49.29 inches at Tampa is the 3rd wettest for this time period since records began in 1891, behind only 1957 and 1959. 1959 went on to be the wettest year on record with 76.57 inches and 1957 second wettest at 70.43 inches.”

Seems like we’re on pace for 2015 to be the wettest year in Tampa history.



Good chance at that Matt with a greater than 2C ENSO building in. AEI index is already 4.14 sigma so the foundation is laid down once the cooler season begins.
GEM tracking this low.
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



Good chance at that Matt with a greater than 2C ENSO building in. AEI index is already 4.14 sigma so the foundation is laid down once the cooler season begins.


Well, the Tampa reporting station is at 49.29" now. Since the remainder of August looks wet, we could easily see another 8"-10" fall in the remainder of the month, that brings us to close to 60" with 4 months left and a strong El Nino building in. Over 15" fell in December in Tampa during the 1997-98 El Nino. I think we'll clear the record of 76.57" easily.
Quoting 47. tampabaymatt:



Well, the Tampa reporting station is at 49.29" now. Since the remainder of August looks wet, we could easily see another 8"-10" fall in the remainder of the month, that brings us to close to 60" with 4 months left and a strong El Nino building in. Over 15" fell in December in Tampa during the 1997-98 El Nino. I think we'll clear the record of 76.57" easily.


Not a clear cut case to 1997 and the reason is the highest sea surface anomalies being centered more in the C-Pac compared to the E-Pac. In December 1997 we had a direct plum of tropical moisture coming straight up from the E-Pac. This year its likely to be the C Pacific which could mean less rain across FL compared to Winter 1997/1998. Hard to say though if this is correct.

Either way it still looks very wet just how wet though is the question with such a different Super El-Nino configuration taking shape.



has HAWAII is in a drought they are forcast too get 6 too 12" of rain with max of 18" of rain if they get that march rain there drought will be gone or just about
Wow that might aid development for 2 minutes!! Lol
Quoting 38. barbamz:


Quite an outburst of tropical moisture all along the Westafrican coast. (Click to enlarge).
Saved loop. Source.




Most of the stuff will end up somewhere in Western Europe/Western Mediterranean area though.
Hey guys

I see on satellite decent amount of moisture in the W and E Caribbean the areas that need it most but I don't see it raining much in these areas hopefully we can get it soon

Anyway I think tropical wise we will see an uptick in activity for the second half of Aug (more so last week in Aug) and into sept
I think it will be out in the Atlantic to start then eventually shift into the Caribbean and off E Fl then E GOM and yes I think conditions in Sept and also Oct in the Caribbean will be better it certainly won't be perfect but I think it will be enough to allow a few weak to moderate systems to roam round the area my confidence levels in this at this time is low-moderate (10-40%) about this
@TropicalTidbits 49 minutes ago
Relative to other months, September especially stands out as the active Atlantic TC genesis period for El Nino years:

Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@TropicalTidbits 49 minutes ago
Relative to other months, September especially stands out as the active Atlantic TC genesis period for El Nino years:



This is what the Atlantic is about to be left with to end out August. Major Sal Plume being forecast to come off Africa during the 6 to 10 day timeframe. More dry air about to take hold of the Atlantic Basin.

Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@TropicalTidbits 49 minutes ago
Relative to other months, September especially stands out as the active Atlantic TC genesis period for El Nino years:




1997 we had a Cat 3 named Erika I believe during September.
Quoting 52. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys

I see on satellite decent amount of moisture in the W and E Caribbean the areas that need it most but I don't see it raining much in these areas hopefully we can get it soon

Anyway I think tropical wise we will see an uptick in activity for the second half of Aug (more so last week in Aug) and into sept
I think it will be out in the Atlantic to start then eventually shift into the Caribbean and off E Fl then E GOM and yes I think conditions in Sept and also Oct in the Caribbean will be better it certainly won't be perfect but I think it will be enough to allow a few weak to moderate systems to roam round the area my confidence levels in this at this time is low-moderate (10-40%) about this


I would keep those confidence levels low (as are mine). Vertical instability levels in the mdr is horrible and wind shear across the Caribbean are at record levels. I have to believe if we see anything it's most likely going to be north of 20degrees.
More dry air but not because of El Niño. At least we got that one straightened out.
Warm pool continues to rapidly evolve as 7C anomalies quickly expand making way for what could be 8C anomalies in a few weeks. Right on par with 1997.

Houston/Galveston....keep an eye to your skies

Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@TropicalTidbits 49 minutes ago
Relative to other months, September especially stands out as the active Atlantic TC genesis period for El Nino years:




I never would have guessed.
Invest 93E

Invest 93E
Last Updated Aug 11, 2015 18 GMT
Location 16.6 130.9W Movement W
Wind 35 MPH
I know this will make Scott smile. An article on beforeitsnews.com has a weather organization called SouthernCaliforniaWeatherForce.com has officially declared a Super El Nino Watch for the Fall of 2015-winter 2016 for the Northern hemisphere. They state due to steroid like Kelvin Waves sweeping the pacific the Super El Nino is more than possible now, Thus a watch is issued. Maybe all of us should issue a severe SAL warning for the Atlantic for the rest of the season. If anyone is interested I posted what my weather professor suggested/theorized about the possible growing Sahara desert and the implications of SAL getting to be out of Control like me. Thank you. Lets all now celebrate a -AMO or cold AMO watch too!! YIPPEY
Not for anything guys and gals but seeing a documentary on the Doors and Jim Morrison. I am inspired to change my handle to Rider on the Storm. What do ya think?
maybe invest 94E SOON
Quoting 65. WeatherConvoy:

Not for anything guys and gals but seeing a documentary on the Doors and Jim Morrison. I am inspired to change my handle to Rider on the Storm. What do ya think?



WU doesn't allow you to change handles. You would need to create a brand new account.
Looks like Hilda has run into a wall of upper winds, although it's hanging in there for now. Someone in Hawaii must have activated the magic force field again.
Sprawling Ridge. If we do get something to develop and conditions are favorable aloft, we could get something strong and moving west for awhile. Big emphasis on the "if" part.

i will stay on topic...i will stay on topic...for the love of god i will stay on topic.......


Time for a bunch of heatwave updates:

Euronews is reporting from Vienna, Austrian vineyards, Poland and Germany:


Ah, in BBC my favorite weatherman explains our heatwave :-) - of course not without refering to the villain which caused it: the jetstream (notice: BBC weather videos always look at the jetstream, lol):
Europe and Egypt scorch in heat wave
BBC weather video, 11 August 2015 Last updated at 17:24
Central and Eastern Europe are in the grips of a record breaking heat wave, with countries like Germany, Czech Republic and Poland all breaking temperature records over the weekend. Egypt has also seen scorching temperatures leaving many locals struggling to cope with the heat.
Chris Fawkes reports for Global on BBC World.


Heatwave shrivels French wine production: experts
Published Tuesday, August 11, 2015 2:16PM EDT
LYON, France - A long period of hot weather threatens to hit the wine harvest in France's famous Burgundy and Beaujolais regions, experts told AFP on Tuesday.
Production could be down, although quality will remain high, they said.
Output could fall by as much as a third in Beaujolais, said Florence Hertaut, wine expert at the agricultural chamber of commerce in the Rhone region. ...


Heatwave in Poland set to last
11.08.2015 14:37
The heatwave that has hit Poland in the last two weeks will likely last into next week.
Representatives of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) told a press conference in Warsaw on Tuesday that the hot spell in Poland has no end in sight.
"According to our forecasts, the heat will last even over the next week,” IMGW meteorologist Grażyna Dąbrowska said. “Almost across the whole country there is the third - the highest – warning level about the heat wave." ...


Heatwave 'makes people more aggressive'
The Local (Austria) Published: 11 Aug 2015 16:11 GMT+02:00
The most recent example of an overheated situation leading to violence occurred on Saturday afternoon on the Ostautobahn in Burgenland. A Swiss couple were forced to stop their car by a driver with a Vienna license plate who was driving dangerously. Words were exchanged and the Austrian man and his passenger dragged the Swiss couple out of their car, and physically assaulted them. Police are still looking for the Austrian driver and his companion ...,

Sadly the death toll in Egypt is rising:

Scorching Heatwave in Egypt Leaves 42 Dead
CAIRO — Aug 11, 2015, 1:19 PM ET, By SARAH EL DEEB Associated Press
A scorching heatwave in Egypt turned deadly this week, killing at least 42 people, including a German resident, patients in a psychiatric hospital and detainees, officials said Tuesday.
The Mideast has been hit by a heatwave since late July. Egyptian summers are usually hot, but temperatures this week soared to 44 degrees Celsius (111 degrees Fahrenheit) in the south.
The Health Ministry said 21 people died from the heat on Sunday, when temperatures topped 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in the country's north. Nineteen more died on Monday, authorities said, mostly elderly citizens. ...


Deadly heat wave kills 32 across Japan in a week, 11,219 sent to hospitals
With the nation still baking in a record heat wave, the heat-related weekly death toll reached 32, the highest number this year, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency reported Aug. 11.
A total of 11,219 people, 2.3 times more than in the same period last year, were taken to the hospital in the week through Aug. 9. The severe heat also affected the normally cool shores of Hokkaido and the Tohoku region, which experienced excessively hot days with the mercury reaching 35 degrees or higher, according to Newsonjapan.com. ...


Well, I better stop it here ...
Interesting that approximately 1.5 meters of rain fell in two months in coastal Karnataka with a deficit of 28 mm. Even the drier north had a substantial rainfall of 220 to 400 mm in the two months time. Perhaps there is insufficient water storage capacity.
Quoting 72. ricderr:

i will stay on topic...i will stay on topic...for the love of god i will stay on topic.......





Me too!!!! Lol...
Barbamz, here is some cooler news for you:

Two weeks ago it was reported that the worst mid-summer ice conditions in 20 years were preventing the routine delivery of supplies by ship in eastern Hudson Bay, and a Canadian ice breaker had to be called in to help.

Link
Quoting 74. canyonboy:

Interesting that approximately 1.5 meters of rain fell in two months in coastal Karnataka with a deficit of 28 mm. Even the drier north had a substantial rainfall of 220 to 400 mm in the two months time. Perhaps there is little water storage capacity.
That's not the deficit in millimeters, it's the anomaly in percent, so they had 24% less rain than normal. There's not much water storage capacity on the coast, and along the Arabian sea coast in particular. The coast quickly transitions into high mountains with very little room for anything other than some modest hydro plant reservoirs. They normally get a tremendous amount of rain on the coast, and a lot of it goes into cisterns to get them through the dry season. This is one of the reasons why a failed monsoon is such a problem.
Quoting 64. WeatherConvoy:

I know this will make Scott smile. An article on beforeitsnews.com has a weather organization called SouthernCaliforniaWeatherForce.com has officially declared a Super El Nino Watch for the Fall of 2015-winter 2016 for the Northern hemisphere. They state due to steroid like Kelvin Waves sweeping the pacific the Super El Nino is more than possible now, Thus a watch is issued. Maybe all of us should issue a severe SAL warning for the Atlantic for the rest of the season. If anyone is interested I posted what my weather professor suggested/theorized about the possible growing Sahara desert and the implications of SAL getting to be out of Control like me. Thank you. Lets all now celebrate a -AMO or cold AMO watch too!! YIPPEY
You have managed to pick two of the worst websites in the world to gather weather information. You really need to do a little research on a site before you trust it, in particular on the site that "declared" a super El Nino. Google Kevin Martin and you'll see why weather news from unqualified crazy people is not news.
I thought steroid like Kelvin waves were a well documented phenomenon.
Quoting 44. tampabaymatt:

From Tampa NWS:
“Thanks to over 18 inches of rain between July 24 and August 8, the January 1 to August 10 total of 49.29 inches at Tampa is the 3rd wettest for this time period since records began in 1891, behind only 1957 and 1959. 1959 went on to be the wettest year on record with 76.57 inches and 1957 second wettest at 70.43 inches.”

Seems like we’re on pace for 2015 to be the wettest year in Tampa history.

1957 was the beginning of a strong El Nino. 1959 was the tail end of a weak El Nino. Just one more illustration of why trying to predict rainfall in the Southeast based on the state of ENSO doesn't work too well.
Afternoon Folks. The Atlantic season is heading into the peak in a strong El Nino year so the numbers will be way down but the African monsoon is pretty healthy this year. Time will fly between now and late September (in terms of the Cape Verde part of the season) and we will know within the next 6 weeks if the Central Atlantic might be able to spin something up. The long term models will probably start developing some African waves starting in about 10-15 days but they (the ITCZ) will really need to moisten up a bit between now and then for any of the waves to stand a chance at hitting TD status, before reaching the Antilles, if shear cooperates:



Quoting 80. sar2401:

1957 was the beginning of a strong El Nino. 1959 was the tail end of a weak El Nino. Just one more illustration of why trying to predict rainfall in the Southeast based on the state of ENSO doesn't work too well.


I need to look into whether any tropical cyclones affected the Tampa area in 1957 and 1959. Because, if we break the record this year with no named cyclone causing any of this rain, that's truly remarkable.
Quoting 76. canyonboy:

Barbamz, here is some cooler news for you:
Two weeks ago it was reported that the worst mid-summer ice conditions in 20 years were preventing the routine delivery of supplies by ship in eastern Hudson Bay, and a Canadian ice breaker had to be called in to help.
Link

Sure, there is a persistent anomaly of cold water and cold air in the northern North Atlantic. Iceland got a chilling summer so far. I've posted an article about that some days ago.


Current temperature anomalies in Europe and North Atlantic.

Looks like the warm anomalies are prevailing though, even at Hudson Bay:

Worldwide (GFS). Source.
Quoting 76. canyonboy:

Barbamz, here is some cooler news for you:

Two weeks ago it was reported that the worst mid-summer ice conditions in 20 years were preventing the routine delivery of supplies by ship in eastern Hudson Bay, and a Canadian ice breaker had to be called in to help.

Link



Modis has a clear view for the Hudson Bay today and yes there is some ice still there, but it will melt like always. The coast are free of all ice and resupply should be no problem anymore.



Overall the condition in the Arctic are worrying:



Quoting 12. tampabaymatt:



Here's what I don't understand. Supposedly, the trough that is going to bring flooding rains back to Tampa on Thursday is sitting on or near Sar's area. Yet, look on the radar and you can see hardly anything is happening. Yet, when the same trough sags further south over C FL, it brings flooding rains. Why aren't the rains heavy where the trough is now? My guess is it has something to do with the influence of the Gulf, but I don't know the answer to that.
I'm just lucky. :-) I think what happens is that the lows that actually kicks off these storms stay up in TN or northern AL. Except in late winter and spring, a strong low almost never makes it to south AL. The storms head SE but start to outrun their forcing and moisture supply. Anything after midnight lose all the instability and CAPE.For some reason, these storms alway seem to hit BIrmingham shortly after sunset. If the storms would head directly south, I'd probably get some rain. The typically head SE into GA, and they very slowly sag further south. It just takes too long, and the storms dissipate.

As soon as the front and weak low get into the Gulf, now it has the fuel that was wrung out over land. All the low really needs is be strong enough to be able to push the unstable air from the Gulf over land, which happens o be you. I won't think you'll see flooding rains from this one but I always assume that a front from the kind of setup we see today is going to cause an ULL in the Gulf and give you rain.

There's also the problem of my house. I was at Walmart about 45 minutes ago. It's about four miles south of me. There was torrential rain there for a half hour. We had to wait before we ran for the car. Lots of puddle and drippy trees after the storm. I thought this one had to hit me. Well, no, it didn't have to. Nothing hit the gauge and the car windshields weren't even wet. The's another line headed this way now, and we'll see if it does the SAR split. Like I said, I'm just a lucky guy.
hawaii.safe.again..big.kahuna.did.it
Quoting 85. sar2401:

There's also the problem of my house. I was at Walmart about 45 minutes ago. It's about four miles south of me. There was torrential rain there for a half hour. We had to wait before we ran for the car. Lots of puddle and drippy trees after the storm. I thought this one had to hit me. Well, no, it didn't have to. Nothing hit the gauge and the car windshields weren't even wet. The's another line headed this way now, and we'll see if it does the SAR split. Like I said, I'm just a lucky guy.

Ah no, Sar. Now confess as you are a fan of technical gear: there is a HAARP device installed on your roof. :-)
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:



I need to look into whether any tropical cyclones affected the Tampa area in 1957 and 1959. Because, if we break the record this year with no named cyclone causing any of this rain, that's truly remarkable.
1957 was another inactive season, much like 2015 so far. Only two weak tropical storms hit Florida, and neither one was near Tampa. Hurricane Three hit Tampa in 1959, but the most rain was about 13 inches south of Tampa. That was pretty much it though. Arlene and Judith gave the Tampa area another inch or two but there weren't any other big tropical rainmakers that affected your area.
Quoting 81. weathermanwannabe:

Afternoon Folks. The Atlantic season is heading into the peak in a strong El Nino year so the numbers will be way down but the African monsoon is pretty healthy this year. Time will fly between now and late September (in terms of the Cape Verde part of the season) and we will know within the next 6 weeks if the Central Atlantic might be able to spin something up. The long term models will probably start developing some African waves starting in about 10-15 days but they (the ITCZ) will really need to moisten up a bit between now and then for any of the waves to stand a chance at hitting TD status, before reaching the Antilles, if shear cooperates:




Yep..My guess is that something will spin up in the MDR this season. If it can make a path just north of the The Lesser and Greater Antilles, the U.S. may have a significant storm from the region. Home grown storms will still be possible into November I believe.
Quoting 87. barbamz:


Ah no, Sar. Now confess as you are a fan of technical gear: there is a HAARP device installed on your roof. :-)
LOL. I only wish, Barb. Not only could I steer rain to me, but I could steer rain to my friends and smite my enemies with drought. That doesn't even count how much money I could make selling rain to the Caribbean. No, assuming this conspiratorial HAARP thing really worked, I'm the last guy you'd want to give it to. :-)
Quoting 71. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sprawling Ridge. If we do get something to develop and conditions are favorable aloft, we could get something strong and moving west for awhile. Big emphasis on the "if" part.


I think I'll save this image as my picture of the Ridge of Doom. Consider the track of any storm that forms under such a ridge....
10,000 acres have burned near Rocksprings, with widespread 100+ and no rain in over a month was bound to happen.
Quoting 71. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sprawling Ridge. If we do get something to develop and conditions are favorable aloft, we could get something strong and moving west for awhile. Big emphasis on the "if" part.


Strong trades winds and a lot of sal thanks to that ridge.
Quoting 87. barbamz:


Ah no, Sar. Now confess as you are a fan of technical gear: there is a HAARP device installed on your roof. :-)


After my head spinning experience with an introduction in boundary layer dynamics, my totally uneducated guess would be the Lake Eufaula or as it outside of Alabama called the Walter F. George Lake can have an influence in his rain pattern. Geomorphological features like such a lake can influence rain pattern. My home place lies between a river (Elbe) and a lake (Alster) and I never have experience a close lightning strike at my place for instance. Thunderstorms fizzle very often when they have to cross the river at my place. The boundary layer dynamics are tremendously complex, so it is only an uneducated hunch.
Quoting 83. barbamz:


Sure, there is a persistent anomaly of cold water and cold air in the northern North Atlantic. Iceland got a chilling summer so far. I've posted an article about that some days ago.


Current temperature anomalies in Europe and North Atlantic.

Looks like the warm anomalies are prevailing though, even at Hudson Bay:

Worldwide (GFS). Source.
Scottish WUbloggers have been mentioning the cold, too.
.
Quoting 89. hydrus:

Yep..My guess is that something will spin up in the MDR this season. If it can make a path just north of the The Lesser and Greater Antilles, the U.S. may have a significant storm from the region. Home grown storms will still be possible into November I believe.
This is pretty much the worst case scenario for me. [Though I'm sure a few people in PR would love to see a soaker pass over...]
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:



I need to look into whether any tropical cyclones affected the Tampa area in 1957 and 1959. Because, if we break the record this year with no named cyclone causing any of this rain, that's truly remarkable.


Actually, years with TC's impacting the area don't seem to have any strong signal in terms of how it impacts yearly rainfall departure from the mean. They usually lead to well above average precip for a given month, and often lead to new monthly records being set. However, looking at past years, there doesn't appear to be much connection with well above average precip and tropical cyclone impacts in the Tampa Bay area because such events aren't frequent enough to impact the area. It seems there are a balance of both below average and above average rain during years where TC's impact the Tampa Bay area.

We are more likely to see torrential rain events repeatedly impact the area that are non tropical like this year that happen enough to bring rainfall well above average, than see a tropical cyclone be the cause. Usually that's because we don't have multiple ones impact the area in a given year. Usually such years will have a couple really really wet months related to tropical activity and the rest of the year below average.

For example, Tampa International has had 4 straight years with above average precip with already this year making it 5 straight, and it's 10-15 year precip average is higher than the 30 year cycle by several inches. This has been true for other Tampa Bay area sites and much of the west coast of FL.

Now, 2012 and 2013 were both years where tropical cyclones impacted the Tampa Bay area and ended up above average at Tampa International for the year and other Tampa Bay sites, but really, there were other rainy months in both years that were unrelated to the tropical events of Andrea and Debby that led to above average rains. The year of 2004 was also an above average year, but there were multiple tropical cyclone impacts that year, but how many years are like 2004? Even then, at 55 inches year to date, as much tropical activity that impacted Tampa it ended up only slight above average, because while the rainy season was greatly enhanced by the active tropics, the dry season was much drier than average, evening out the total.


Tampa International seems to often have a lot of years with either a well above average rainy season and a below average dry season, or an above average dry season but below average rainy season looking at records. It may explain why Tampa International's average year to date is 5-10 inches less than surrounding locations, and why it's one of the few reporting sites to not have a record wettest year above 80 inches in west Central FL.
97. vis0
image host

obviously Dakster used the wrong sealant look at that "AtmosphericBrokenPipe" (sar24012 mentioned this is  USUALLY the wrong season  for AtmosRivers but maybe that's why sar2401 aint gett'n rain)...and to boot nature puts some "Fats" billiards English (maybe with the help of a MajeekaL-device? causing a back up..."broken Jet-Stream")


(mature members, go tell ya self that joke of using window putty instead of...and the windows feel out)
-------------------------------

image host
Here we see the dangers of WET SAND, as the complex of clouds coming off Africa's NW coast SLIPS! and goes south.
If you think, Typhoon Soudelor is history: not really!


Blob of Soudelor grazing South Korea.


Now moving on to Japan. Source for updates.

Soudelor Brings Heavy Rain to Japan
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist, August 11, 2015; 10:01 AM ET
Tropical Rainstorm Soudelor is now bringing heavy rain to parts of Japan and will continue to do so through Friday. As of Tuesday evening, the heaviest rains have tapered off across South Korea. ...
(Including a map)

Good night for today from another German "tropical night" (after midnight still 25C = 77F; nights with temps not below 68F are called "tropical" in common German meteorology. We got plenty of them recently!)
Quoting 94. ChrisHamburg:



After my head spinning experience with an introduction in boundary layer dynamics, my totally uneducated guess would be the Lake Eufaula or as it outside of Alabama called the Walter F. George Lake can have an influence in his rain pattern. Geomorphological features like such a lake can influence rain pattern. My home place lies between a river (Elbe) and a lake (Alster) and I never have experience a close lightning strike at my place for instance. Thunderstorms fizzle very often when they have to cross the river at my place. The boundary layer dynamics are tremendously complex, so it is only an uneducated hunch.
Same thing SAR has been thinking....
What weather nerds dream of happening in the Atlantic this year.


The reality...

Quoting 98. barbamz:

If you think, Typhoon Soudelor is history: not really!


Blob of Soudelor grazing South Korea.


Now moving on to Japan. Source for updates.

Soudelor Brings Heavy Rain to Japan
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist, August 11, 2015; 10:01 AM ET
Tropical Rainstorm Soudelor is now bringing heavy rain to parts of Japan and will continue to do so through Friday. As of Tuesday evening, the heaviest rains have tapered off across South Korea. ...
(Including a map)

Good night for today from another German "tropical night" (after midnight still 25C = 77F; nights with temps not below 68F are called "tropical" in common German meteorology. We got plenty of them recently!)
This was a really super track forecast for Souledor. I bet Japanese residents won't complain too much given the recent heat wave they have been experiencing...
Quoting 98. barbamz:
Good night for today from another German "tropical night" (after midnight still 25C = 77F; nights with temps not below 68F are called "tropical" in common German meteorology. We got plenty of them recently!)

Tokyo has a similar standard and term "tropical night", overnight min at least 25 C. For day time highs they have a term that translates (per my source) as "crazy heat", above 35 C.
Quoting 100. washingtonian115:

What weather nerds dream of happening in the Atlantic this year.


The reality...


Something missing?
Quoting 103. BahaHurican:

Something missing?
I reposted it.
Quoting 100. washingtonian115:

What weather nerds dream of happening in the Atlantic this year.


The reality...



At least an abundance of vorticity, Wash!
Quoting 47. tampabaymatt:



Well, the Tampa reporting station is at 49.29" now. Since the remainder of August looks wet, we could easily see another 8"-10" fall in the remainder of the month, that brings us to close to 60" with 4 months left and a strong El Nino building in. Over 15" fell in December in Tampa during the 1997-98 El Nino. I think we'll clear the record of 76.57" easily.




It's funny, the local met's are saying with such assurance that the pattern this upcoming weekend won't be anything like we saw with the flooding a little over a week ago.
Really? They should know better. I'm not expecting this pattern to bring an event that will match 8-12 inches in parts other Tampa Bay area in just a couple days, but that wasn't expected with that event either.
In fact, if you remember, we had widespread heavy rains 1 week prior to that weekend, and during the following week, they said exactly the same thing "we don't expect this to be as widespread or as heavy as last time"

But what really happened? The next event ended up being much worse, and brought some of the worst flooding to parts of the Tampa Bay area in years topping off all the other events, with some places seeing 5-8 inches on both Saturday and Monday each. The local met's claimed with assurance a few days earlier that the event would simply not match the prior event.

Now, I'm not expecting perfection by any means as meteorology student. That would be stupid, what I am saying is that it's irresponsible to assume that the next event couldn't possibly be as bad with such assurance even though the event looks the same as the other events in terms of model forecast depiction.
That is, based on model guidance, the best evidence suggests the probability of this event bringing major rain totals and more flooding is the same, yet the local met's are acting like there's no chance of it matching the past one. That's just simply not true.

Now, I'm not hyping this event and saying it will be just as much as that last major event. Such an event is obviously well above average hence rain totals of 5-8 inches per day for a couple days and unusually bad flooding, so such an event is always a low probability event, and technically unlikely.
However, this type of upcoming event has proven multiple times this year and other years to be capable of producing torrential rains for our area, and that combined with the fact that it's mid August, a historically higher chance of seeing flooding rains, and the fact that we live in a region with higher probability of heavy rain events, shows that it could happen.

With all that said, the event probably won't be as bad, simply because overall such outcomes are low probability events, but my only point is that the pattern this weekend has about the same chance of being another major rain event and has the potential to cause major flooding. We'll have to watch it closely like the last one.

Quoting 106. Jedkins01:





It's funny, the local met's are saying with such assurance that this event "won't bring anything like we saw with the flooding a little over a week ago".
Really? They should know better. I'm not expecting this to bring an event that will match 8-12 inches in parts other Tampa Bay area in just a couple days, but that wasn't expected with that event either.
In fact, if you remember, we had widespread heavy rains 1 week prior to that weekend, and during the following week, they said exactly the same thing "we don't expect this to be as widespread or as heavy as last time"

But what really happened? The next event ended up being much worse, and brought some of the worst flooding to parts of the Tampa Bay area in years topping off all the other events, with some places seeing 5-8 inches on both Saturday and Monday each. The local met's claimed with assurance a few days earlier that the event would simply not match the prior event.

Now, I'm not expecting perfection by any means as meteorology student. That would be stupid, what I am saying is that it's irresponsible to assume that the next event couldn't possibly be as bad with such assurance even though the event looks the same as the other events in terms of model forecast depiction.
That is, based on model guidance, the best evidence suggests the probability of this event bringing major rain totals and more flooding is the same, yet the local met's are acting like there's no chance of it matching the past one. That's just simply not true.

Now, I'm not hyping this event and saying it will be just as much as that last major event. Such an event is obviously well above average hence rain totals of 5-8 inches per day for a couple days and unusually bad flooding, so such an event is always a low probability event, and technically unlikely.
However, this type of upcoming event has proven multiple times this year and other years to be capable of producing torrential rains for our area, and that combined with the fact that it's mid August, a historically higher chance of seeing flooding rains, and the fact that we live in a region with higher probability of heavy rain events, shows that it could happen.

With all that said, the event probably won't be as bad, simply because overall such outcomes are low probability events, but my only point is that the pattern this weekend has about the same chance of being another major rain event and has the potential to cause major flooding. We'll have to watch it closely like the last one.


Absolutely..Not only that , this pattern is known for Florida getting hefty rainfall amounts...Cant wait to see what happens come fall and winter for the state.
Quoting 105. barbamz:


At least an abundance of vorticity, Wash!
The dust have been eating T.W's as if they were hamburgers.


Our Extinction Problem May Be Far, Far Worse Than We Think
New research suggests that 130,000 species are gone forever.

Hilary Hanson


The sharp decline of land snail species in Hawaii may have frightening implications for the extinction rates of animals worldwide.

A multinational team of researchers argue that because the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List -- often cited as the authority on extinct and endangered species worldwide -- does not look at most invertebrates, it presents a skewed picture of extinction rates, portraying them as much lower than they are.

"The focus on birds and mammals and the proportionately negligible assessment of invertebrates masks a real crisis," the researchers write in a paper published in the journal Conservation Biology in July.

Fewer than 1 percent of invertebrates worldwide have even been evaluated by the IUCN. Yet invertebrates constitute 95 to 99 percent of animal species, including insects, worms, snails and crustaceans -- meaning there's a lot of species that haven't been assessed.

The researchers note that the IUCN standards for evaluating invertebrate species are so stringent that assessing many of them is virtually impossible -- a problem that’s been pointed out by other scientists in the past.

In order to estimate the gap between extinction rates reported by the IUCN and real extinction rates, the researchers set out to conduct their own comprehensive survey of 325 known Hawaiian land snail species in the family Amastridae and compare their findings with the numbers listed by the IUCN.

While the IUCN cites 33 Hawaiian Amastridae species as extinct, the newer study concludes there are 131 extinct Amastridae species. Extinction rates haven’t been constant, researchers say, but have risen in connection with periods of habitat destruction and introductions of invasive species by humans.

In a study published in June, some of the same researchers had partnered with other scientists around the world to calculate that around 10 percent of a sample of 200 known land snail species worldwide had gone instinct. Of these 200 species, only nine had been evaluated on the IUCN Red List, and three of those nine were extinct.

The earlier group of scientists extrapolated from those data to estimate that 130,000 species worldwide may have gone extinct since around the year 1600, as opposed to the 800 species recognized by the IUCN.

Robert Cowie, a University of Hawaii researcher who worked on both studies, told The Huffington Post that although the new estimate may not be precise, it nevertheless suggests that "the real number of extinct species is far, far greater than that assessed as such by the IUCN."

"It's a bit of a leap of faith, I admit," he told The Washington Post. "We just have to wave our arms around and say that's the best we can do."

He also told the Post that the intention was not to make the IUCN look bad.

"We're not criticizing IUCN, they're not set up to estimate the number of species," he told the Post. "The point of the paper is to say, the vast, vast majority of invertebrates has not been assessed."
As always, Nature will do whatever wants to do and do will certain things at the times it wants. Nature is truly unpredictable. Models cannot be trusted very far out do to the changing variables in weather daily, some past storms have been known to pop in the shorter range view of the model's timeframe during the last minute.
Alrighty! Finally had a line of storms that didn't part over my house. Had torrential rain for about 20 minutes and then lighter rain for the last half-hour, just ending now. Got 0.62" out of it. Not a huge amount but welcome nonetheless. This puts me up to 1.58" for the month. Still below average but much better than before this storm. The real defining characteristic of this storm was insane lightning right up there on the Florida scale. We were sitting on the front porch and had one flash bang that gave Karen a stitch. If you don't live in the South, you'll have to Google it. Probably 10 total strikes within 500 yards and, as far as I can tell, they didn't hit anything important. This storm had bolts from the blue, with vicious ground strikes before and after the main body of the storms. I'm using the radar from a different site that has a better lightning detector. It correctly showed the strikes before and after the storm. After the fact, of course, but I'm still impressed it picked them up so rapidly once they did strike. I haven't read anything convincing about why storms sometimes produce such intense lightning while a similar storm produces mostly cloud to cloud. Something must change in the ground charge before the storm gets here since it's the charged ground and structures that actually start the leader up into the cloud. It would be nice to know in advance if we're getting one of the nasty storms.
Quoting 106. Jedkins01:





It's funny, the local met's are saying with such assurance that the pattern this upcoming weekend won't be anything like we saw with the flooding a little over a week ago.
Really? They should know better. I'm not expecting this pattern to bring an event that will match 8-12 inches in parts other Tampa Bay area in just a couple days, but that wasn't expected with that event either.

I assume these are TV mets you're talking about. If so, you have to remember that you're not getting real weather from them, you're getting entertainment with constrained weather news. The last thing a tourist intensive area like Tampa wants is some TV met getting all arm flappy about a coming rain event unless Ruskin is doing it too. Even then, his bosses want it toned down. They may have known, or suspected, the last two events would be bigger than forecast but, until it was there, they aren't going to talk about it much. Same applies to hurricanes or almost any severe weather. The last TV met I thought was able to buck that trend retired this year so I just don't watch nor pay attention to what TV mets say. The NWS produces, in general, far better analysis anyway.
Quoting 98. barbamz:

Good night for today from another German "tropical night" (after midnight still 25C = 77F; nights with temps not below 68F are called "tropical" in common German meteorology. We got plenty of them recently!)
Good night, Barb. Nights in Alabama with a temperature of 77 at midnight are called "Summer". :-)
Quoting 94. ChrisHamburg:



After my head spinning experience with an introduction in boundary layer dynamics, my totally uneducated guess would be the Lake Eufaula or as it outside of Alabama called the Walter F. George Lake can have an influence in his rain pattern. Geomorphological features like such a lake can influence rain pattern. My home place lies between a river (Elbe) and a lake (Alster) and I never have experience a close lightning strike at my place for instance. Thunderstorms fizzle very often when they have to cross the river at my place. The boundary layer dynamics are tremendously complex, so it is only an uneducated hunch.
Chris, I'm nowhere near smart enough to understand boundary layer dynamics. I have to slow down just to type it, but this lake definitely influences weather here. As you saw from the Wiki entry, Lake Eufaula (no one on the Alabama side calls it "Walter F George Reservoir") is quite a large lake at 18 sq. km. with over 1,000 km of shoreline. It's also a long lake, impounding as it does the Chattahoochee River. Just from watching the radar and cloud behavior, I can see any storms from the north or northwest tend to either split or dissipate as they approach the lake. The one I had today is the occasional exception. They also tend to reform on the Georgia side as they move away from the lake. Storms directly from south or SE are intensified as the traverse the lake, especially in winter, when there's a definite lake effect snow that develops here even when there's no snow elsewhere away from the lake. I haven't been here long enough to experience a hurricane approaching directly from the south, but I suspect that's going to be really interesting. :-)
SEATTLE - NEW RECORD MOST 85 F DAYS IN A YEAR: 2015 is reportedly already the calendar year that has the record most days with a maximum temperature at the Seattle WA airport of at least 85 F, with 23 such days as of August 11. 1964 and 2014 each had 22 such days. 85 F is about 29 C.
if the 18z is right CA may see the 1st storm of the season come early SEP i no the GFS may drop it in the next run but if it holds then CA will be in for the 1st wetting rains of the season are 1 storm storm of the season all so tabs in too Tropical moister from the W PAC noted on the GFS so this would be some in too watch in the next few runs


Western Pacific wants to show the Atlantic how is done.
Quoting 111. sar2401:

Alrighty! Finally had a line of storms that didn't part over my house. Had torrential rain for about 20 minutes and then lighter rain for the last half-hour, just ending now. Got 0.62" out of it. Not a huge amount but welcome nonetheless. This puts me up to 1.58" for the month. Still below average but much better than before this storm. The real defining characteristic of this storm was insane lightning right up there on the Florida scale. We were sitting on the front porch and had one flash bang that gave Karen a stitch. If you don't live in the South, you'll have to Google it. Probably 10 total strikes within 500 yards and, as far as I can tell, they didn't hit anything important. This storm had bolts from the blue, with vicious ground strikes before and after the main body of the storms. I'm using the radar from a different site that has a better lightning detector. It correctly showed the strikes before and after the storm. After the fact, of course, but I'm still impressed it picked them up so rapidly once they did strike. I haven't read anything convincing about why storms sometimes produce such intense lightning while a similar storm produces mostly cloud to cloud. Something must change in the ground charge before the storm gets here since it's the charged ground and structures that actually start the leader up into the cloud. It would be nice to know in advance if we're getting one of the nasty storms.
I don't know what you have in the way of HF, but have you thought of cranking it up (maybe you have an amp for 80M) and keying it in CW when a storm is approaching? Maybe you could add just enough electrical energy to trigger something!
Great map of India rainfall so far.

I want an Atlantic hurricane to track and talk about. That's why I joined!
111. sar2401

Glad you got some rain, hopefully we'll get some soon too :), not holding my breath though
Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@TropicalTidbits 49 minutes ago
Relative to other months, September especially stands out as the active Atlantic TC genesis period for El Nino years:


If September is sticking out that finger, isn't for nothing.....
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized this
afternoon in association with an area of low pressure located about
1450 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is still possible
overnight before environmental conditions become unfavorable later
on Wednesday while the low moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala is
producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. An area of low
pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave in a
couple of days a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions should support development later
this week, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression
by Sunday while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Quoting 120. weathergirl2001:

Great map of India rainfall so far.

I want an Atlantic hurricane to track and talk about. That's why I joined!



well you can track other hurrican like in the C PAC W PAC and E has that is where the fun is this year
well we now have 98W too keep track of


i wounder if 97W and 98W are the two that the GFS is forcasting too be come twin CAT 5 super typhoons
Hurricane Hilda

Hurricane Hilda
Pressure: 998 mb

Last Updated Aug 11, 2015 2100 GMT
Location 17.1N 151.8W Movement W
Wind 75 MPH



we are going to see this for a long time
97W has some work to do and boy this looks like its going too be a big one 97W will be a vary large storm if it fourms but it will take time




98W may win out 1st has its a smaller storm and it may be the 1st one too get too TD 1st




i wounder if 98W or 97W or one of the two uesd too be TD 8E and the lift overs of GUILLERMO from the C PAC or if 97W and 98W are new storms
130. beell
Hilda
DEE-coupled

Quoting 125. Tazmanian:
well you can track other hurrican like in the C PAC W PAC and E has that is where the fun is this year

It's not the same.
Quoting 130. beell:

Hilda
DEE-coupled




it pulled a CHRIS
Quoting 131. weathergirl2001:


It's not the same.



well then your going too be in for a long slow season and a long wait
134. beell
Quoting 132. Tazmanian:



it pulled a CHRIS

Or a GUILLERMO!
Abraham Levy ‏@hombredeltiempo 11h11 hours ago Peru
Boya en 165ºE-0ºN sugiere el inicio de una nueva #OndaKelvin
Abraham Levy ‏@hombredeltiempo 11h11 hours ago
TAO (boyas) muestra que estallido de vientos oestes en curso es el más prominente (>8 m/s) de lo que va de #ElNiño View translation
Quoting 132. Tazmanian:



it pulled a CHRIS
Quoting 130. beell:

Hilda
DEE-coupled




Love our trade winds here in hawaii. Blew the storm right of the swirl!
Quoting 134. beell:


Or a GUILLERMO!



GUILLERMO was N of HI in wind shear just storm is S of HI am gusting strong trade winds or wind shear or both
Quoting 76. canyonboy:

Barbamz, here is some cooler news for you:

Two weeks ago it was reported that the worst mid-summer ice conditions in 20 years were preventing the routine delivery of supplies by ship in eastern Hudson Bay, and a Canadian ice breaker had to be called in to help.

Link



Yeah, that ice isn't there anymore. It did last longer into the summer than normal, but that was mainly due to the persistent weather pattern that brought cooler Arctic air down from north. Unfortunately that same weather pattern also pushed very warm continental air off the northern Canadian and Alaskan coasts and shredded the ice in the Beaufort Sea (a good portion which was multi-year ice).

Area, extent, and volume wise it was a big loss, with this year looking to finish either in the top three or four worst years for Arctic sea ice (currently only behind 2012, 2007, and 2011).
Quoting 136. NoNamePub:



Love our trade winds here in hawaii. Blew the storm right of the swirl!

Shear
Quoting 137. WeatherConvoy:


So dude, are you denying that there is no chance of A super Nino!! Are you the only one on this site that thinks the El Nino that is ongoing is going to be non-existent or weak? I think you are the one that needs to wake the freak up dude! It doesn't matter where I got the news from, most media sites agree that a Super El Nino is very possible. That was my point even sites like that are issuing Strong to Super El Nino watches. Read between the lines next time buddy!!
My point was that neither site in your original post is reliable, and Kevin Martin's site is not an official anything, so his "super El Nino Watch" is something he made up. I made no other observation about El Nino, not do I intend to now.

Edit: It would also help if you learned to quote the post that you are apparently replying to.
Quoting 137. WeatherConvoy:


So dude, are you denying that there is no chance of A super Nino!! Are you the only one on this site that thinks the El Nino that is ongoing is going to be non-existent or weak? I think you are the one that needs to wake the freak up dude! It doesn't matter where I got the news from, most media sites agree that a Super El Nino is very possible. That was my point even sites like that are issuing Strong to Super El Nino watches. Read between the lines next time buddy!!


there is no weather designation Super El Nino .. it is a media marketing term ..
143. beell
Quoting 138. Tazmanian:




GUILLERMO was N of HI in wind shear just storm is S of HI am gusting strong trade winds or wind shear or both


True, the exact track is/was different but both moved into a ridge weakness or col (weak steering currents) and slowed down as both storms moved into the strong upper level westerlies associated with the sub-tropical jet along 20N (same latitude as Hawaii). A longer time for the shear to "work" on these storms. Both decoupled and were steered by the lower level easterlies while the upper level winds made short work of the "mid"-level warm core.

Guillermo's evolution/devolution offered up a great base forecast for Hilda. Not that much had changed in the short span of time between the two systems.
Quoting 121. stormpetrol:

111. sar2401

Glad you got some rain, hopefully we'll get some soon too :), not holding my breath though
I hope you do also. 0.62" usually isn't much to get excited about but it was sure nice to see today. :-)
Quoting 143. beell:



True, the exact track is/was different but both moved into a ridge weakness or col (weak steering currents) and slowed down as both storms moved into the strong upper level westerlies associated with the sub-tropical jet along 20N (same latitude as Hawaii). A longer time for the shear to "work" on these storms. Both decoupled and were steered by the lower level easterlies while the upper level winds made short work of the warm core.

Guillermo's evolution/devolution offered up a great base forecast for Hilda. Not that much had changed.



all so Hilda is a vary small storm so it do not stan a ch in high wind shear like how larger storms storms can
Quoting 119. CaneFreeCR:

I don't know what you have in the way of HF, but have you thought of cranking it up (maybe you have an amp for 80M) and keying it in CW when a storm is approaching? Maybe you could add just enough electrical energy to trigger something!
Right. Back in the late 20's, WLS in Chicago asked the FCC for permission to go from 10Kw to 50Kw transmitter power. The transmitter was out in the country, and farmers were already complaining that the transmitter ether caused more rain or caused less rain. The FCC asked the then Weather Bureau to investigate. Investigate. The transmitter had been in place for five years, so the Weather Bureau look at the records for 20 years before the transmitter and then the five years since it had been there. The result was that, on average, nothing had changed. WLS got their 50 Kw permit and still have it today. I don't think my station on 80 meters with my puny little 500 watt amp is going to do a great deal to any storm. :-)
Ok I know that tropical systems are a way for the heat to be released from the lower latitudes. What happens to all this heat in a year like this year with very little tropical activity in the Atlantic and lots of heat?
Quoting 147. gulfbreeze:

Ok I know that tropical systems are a way for the heat to be released from the lower latitudes. What happens to all this heat in a year like this year with very little tropical activity in the Atlantic and lots of heat?
Starts out hotter next year.
149. beell
Quoting 147. gulfbreeze:

Ok I know that tropical systems are a way for the heat to be released from the lower latitudes. What happens to all this heat in a year like this year with very little tropical activity in the Atlantic and lots of heat?


It came to Houston, today.

...THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 11 2015...
VALID TODAY AS OF 400 PM LOCAL TIME.
106°F (breaking the 2011 record of 102°F)
Climate Normal (1981-2010) 95°F

All this talk of flooding in Asia yet the devastation in Chile is about as bad as it gets. Whole towns flooding now.

I think Doc needs to get up to snuff with over regions besides always Asia & india. The situation in Chile is very concerning.

Storms kill 6 in Chile, cause heavy flooding in Argentina

SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) — Weekend storms have killed six people in Chile and forced evacuations in neighboring Argentina, officials said Monday.

Chile's national emergency office said three people were killed Sunday by landslide in the northern port town of Tocopilla, which was visited Monday by President Michelle Bachelet.

Three other people died Saturday: A man drowned at sea near Valparaiso, another was crushed by a tree in O'Higgins region and a third person died when his roof collapsed in the northern city of La Serena.

Chilean soccer player Alexis Sanchez, who grew up in Tocopilla, sent a message of encouragement to residents of his native town. "I am who I am today thanks to where I was raised. Thank you Tocopilla," the Arsenal forward said via Instagram. "We're going to come out of this ... Strength to Tocopilla and all of Chile's north."

About 0.55 inches (14 millimeters) of rain fell on Antofagasta, an arid region that typically receives only about 0.07 inches (1.7 millimeters) of rain in a year, the national meteorological service said.

The rains caused large waves to pummel fishing boats, restaurants and homes along Chile's coast. More than 1,000 people were evacuated and power was knocked out in more than 120,000 homes nationwide.

Chile's state-run mining company, Codelco, suspended operations in several of its units, although it resumed operations on Monday at Chuquicamata, the world's largest open-pit copper mine.

In Argentina, swollen rivers led officials to evacuate some 1,600 people in Buenos Aires province. Firefighters there rescued two men from the roofs of houses they had refused to evacuate for fear of looting.

Classes were suspended in several communities near the beachside resort town of Mar del Plata.

Flooding forced officials to relocate several polling places for Argentina's presidential primary on Sunday.
These storms in Chile are happening across regions that hardly get any rain a year. Look at this video below.

Link
Quoting 148. unknowncomic:

Starts out hotter next year.
That's not funny!!
As storms batter Chile's coast, some copper mines suspend work
SANTIAGO


Heavy rain and winds hit the southern cone of South America over the weekend, battering the Chilean coastline and leading to the precautionary suspension of work at some mines in the top copper exporter.

Over 1,000 people from Antofagasta in the far north to Los Rios in the south of Chile were affected, with some being housed in shelters after being evacuated or losing their homes to floods, and over 120,000 left without electricity, the emergency service Onemi said on Sunday.

Three people died as a result of the storms in the city of Tocopilla in the Antofagasta region, while another three were killed in accidents along the coast, local media reported.
ADVERTISING


After months of drought, the rains that began early last week in central Chile and have since spread north have brought some relief to farmers and ski resort owners, but spelled more potential bad news for Chile's key copper mining industry, mostly based in the north of the country and already hit by floods once this year.

State-owned Codelco, the world's top copper exporter, said it had suspended operations at Chuquicamata, its second largest mine, from around 2 p.m. local time (1700 GMT) on Sunday as a safety measure. It did not report problems at El Teniente, its biggest mine.

Codelco said it had also temporarily stopped operations at its Radomiro Tomic mine during the morning but had since resumed work. An ongoing strike has already halted work at its Salvador mine and led to a partial suspension at Ministro Hales.

Companies operating other mines could not immediately be reached for comment.

Meanwhile, Chile's central coast faced some of its heaviest sea swell in 40 years, with waves up to 10 metres (33 feet) high. TV pictures showed serious damage to the seafront along tourist resort Vina del Mar, with cars and fishing boats smashed.

The heavy rains extended into neighboring Argentina, complicating voting in presidential primaries there.

(Reporting by Rosalba O'Brien; Editing by Eric Walsh)
Ok Scott you are the El Nino expert I know you think C/Florida will have a bad weather pattern this winter with tornados etc. What do you think about the Panhandle? I am thinking more rain but will we see a better chance of ice or tornados or flooding weather?
Quoting 115. sar2401:

Chris, I'm nowhere near smart enough to understand boundary layer dynamics. I have to slow down just to type it, but this lake definitely influences weather here. As you saw from the Wiki entry, Lake Eufaula (no one on the Alabama side calls it "Walter F George Reservoir") is quite a large lake at 18 sq. km. with over 1,000 km of shoreline. It's also a long lake, impounding as it does the Chattahoochee River. Just from watching the radar and cloud behavior, I can see any storms from the north or northwest tend to either split or dissipate as they approach the lake. The one I had today is the occasional exception. They also tend to reform on the Georgia side as they move away from the lake. Storms directly from south or SE are intensified as the traverse the lake, especially in winter, when there's a definite lake effect snow that develops here even when there's no snow elsewhere away from the lake. I haven't been here long enough to experience a hurricane approaching directly from the south, but I suspect that's going to be really interesting. :-)


My uneducated guess here is that boundary layer dynamics are influencing the intensity of thunderstorms. The wind profile of the boundary layer in convective conditions typical for thunderstorms must be an important factor for the mixing of the atmosphere necessary for convective processes. Here is a PDF with a short introduction into these dynamics and look at page 2 at the day time circulation and eddy structure picture to get a visual on the problem. This is of course idealized and in reality this will have more noisy characteristic. My point is here, that these dynamics are different above a land surface or water surface. These differences are not significant enough to destroy the thunderstorm complex, it only gets disrupted and can resume its course after the interaction with the water surface. This water surface should have a significant size, of course. But it is way above my pay grade to qualify what these differences are.

And as a side note for everybody who claims meteorologist don't know much, look further down the PDF and when this is the stuff they know, I get nightmares thinking about how the mathematics looks like for the stuff they don't know. And this is only a short introduction there are books out there only about this stuff. Taking about nerds and so...
Quoting 19. WaterWitch11:

PERSEID METEOR SHOWER--THIS WEEK: Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Forecasters expect meteor rates to peak at 100+ per hour on the night of Aug. 12-13 when our planet passes through the heart of the debris stream. Perseids produce more fireballs than any other meteor shower of the year, so stay tuned for a good show.

I'm headed for Steens Mountain in eastern Oregon in the morning to watch them from 9,000 feet elevation tomorrow night. The moon will be one day from new so it will be a dark sky. The only worry is smoke from wildfires but Oregon's been a bit lucky in that regard this year (so far). The weather is forecast to be clear and cool.
Quoting 146. sar2401:

Right. Back in the late 20's, WLS in Chicago asked the FCC for permission to go from 10Kw to 50Kw transmitter power. The transmitter was out in the country, and farmers were already complaining that the transmitter ether caused more rain or caused less rain. The FCC asked the then Weather Bureau to investigate. Investigate. The transmitter had been in place for five years, so the Weather Bureau look at the records for 20 years before the transmitter and then the five years since it had been there. The result was that, on average, nothing had changed. WLS got their 50 Kw permit and still have it today. I don't think my station on 80 meters with my puny little 500 watt amp is going to do a great deal to any storm. :-)
Depends on how desperate you are for rain. But you'd probably need a 5-element yagi too. Puts me in mind of a New Yorker cartoon from years ago -- a high-tension line tower struck by lightning and a return stroke twice as big aimed back at the cloud.
Today was our 44th consecutive day of 90F or greater.



Quoting 100. washingtonian115:

What weather nerds dream of happening in the Atlantic this year.


The reality...


Hard to believe 20 years ago this was what the Atlantic was gearing up to look like. The Main Development Region has become the Main Desert Region.

160. OCF
You guys talking about Lake Eufaula make me do a double take - I grew up in Oklahoma, and Oklahoma has a Lake Eufaula which is also very large.

Now, about that thing off the coast of Nicaragua which seems very likely to develop - in the long run is it headed toward Hawaii like Guillermo and Hilda or is it going to curl up to the north like Dolores and make a difference to California or Arizona?
Quoting 140. Gearsts:

Shear

one mans Shear is another mans Trades.
Quoting 23. Sfloridacat5:

Past 14 day precipitation estimates really show the sharp cut off near Fort Myers leaving southern Florida very dry. Also other areas of Florida have been below average the past two weeks.
Also take note of the heavy precipitation from the Tampa area up into the Big Bend Region.


My area received 2.6" total for June1-July31. 7.1" since Aug. 1.
And it looks good next few days...I'm expecting 8-12" more in my area. A droughtbuster better than a cyclone.
Florida rains on the main peninsula for the next 6-8 days or so should be focused on SFL, particularly those areas like mine who have been in a nosoon monsoon since June 1 while CFL, particularly Tampa and north areas have been in the money rainfall-wise.
.
Time to cash in your chips for a week instead of betting on rain in CFL.
Apart from some passing showers on Thursday-Friday and perhaps some diurnal activity over the weekend expect most forecasts to be a repeat of today's. Which verified.
.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.UPDATE...
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINED TEPID ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING DESPITE HEALTHY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ALONG
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. PER THE 00Z XMR AND TBW SOUNDINGS...MID
LEVEL TEMPS REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LAPSE
RATES SIMPLY COULD NOT SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. ALSO...MOISTURE REMAINED LIMITED AND GENERALLY BELOW
700MB.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY TO PETER OUT BY
10:00 PM. TYPICAL WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES NECESSARY TO AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
Quoting 161. NoNamePub:


one mans Shear is another mans Trades.
I always thought of the trades as being surface wind. Because of the old sailing days I guess.
164. txjac
I feel like Sar ...so close but yet so far
We are getting a spitting of rain here on the west side of Houston, nothing measurable
Most of it is to the north of me.
Was so hoping for thunder, lightening, pounding rain ...got some thunder and cooler temps for the evening ... sitting at 79F at the moment
Quoting 157. CaneFreeCR:

Depends on how desperate you are for rain. But you'd probably need a 5-element yagi too. Puts me in mind of a New Yorker cartoon from years ago -- a high-tension line tower struck by lightning and a return stroke twice as big aimed back at the cloud.
LOL. For the price of a five element 80 meter Yagi, I can rent some rain. :-)
Quoting 164. txjac:

I feel like Sar ...so close but yet so far
We are getting a spitting of rain here on the west side of Houston, nothing measurable
Most of it is to the north of me.
Was so hoping for thunder, lightening, pounding rain ...got some thunder and cooler temps for the evening ... sitting at 79F at the moment

Yeah, it's terrible when that happens, especially for you, since you've had even less rain than me and been even hotter. between the heat and the 179 million people that live in the Houston area, it would be just too much for me to take.
Quoting 160. OCF:

You guys talking about Lake Eufaula make me do a double take - I grew up in Oklahoma, and Oklahoma has a Lake Eufaula which is also very large.

Now, about that thing off the coast of Nicaragua which seems very likely to develop - in the long run is it headed toward Hawaii like Guillermo and Hilda or is it going to curl up to the north like Dolores and make a difference to California or Arizona?
Technically, it's Eufaula Lake, but it was there first, and it's why my lake is officially Walter F George Reservoir. George was a long serving Georgia senator, an out and out racist, and, as far as anyone here knows, never had any interest in this area or having a lake built here. He died shortly before construction on the lake started. They needed something big to name for him, and our lake got stuck with him.

As for the low, it seems any low in the Pacific eventually becomes some kind of monster storms, so who knows.
Quoting 149. beell:



It came to Houston, today.

...THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 11 2015...
VALID TODAY AS OF 400 PM LOCAL TIME.
106°F (breaking the 2011 record of 102°F)
Climate Normal (1981-2010) 95°F


Good heavens. Makes my 98 look pleasant.
I just flagged it for you!



Quoting 141. sar2401:

My point was that neither site in your original post is reliable, and Kevin Martin's site is not an official anything, so his "super El Nino Watch" is something he made up. I made no other observation about El Nino, not do I intend to now.

Edit: It would also help if you learned to quote the post that you are apparently replying to.
The GFS continues to forecast simultaneous Category 5s next week. Such a situation would be incredibly rare, having only happened one other time in history (typhoons Ivan and Joan, October 1997) as far as I'm aware. Environmental conditions will have to be near perfect for both systems, and there will need to be sufficient space between the two cyclones for them to strengthen appreciably. We'll see.

Quoting 169. swflurker:

I just flagged it for you!




Thanks, but I generally would rather see posts like that stand so people know what kind of a character they're dealing with.
Strong Hudson Low and a Hurricane in the Central Atlantic. Let's see what the Euro has to say and the next few runs of the GFS.

Quoting 170. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS continues to forecast simultaneous Category 5s next week. Such a situation would be incredibly rare, having only happened one other time in history (typhoons Ivan and Joan, October 1997) as far as I'm aware. Environmental conditions will have to be near perfect for both systems, and there will need to be sufficient space between the two cyclones for them to strengthen appreciably. We'll see.


It will be interesting to see if a fujiwhara takes place.
174. JRRP

pathetic
Quoting 172. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Strong Hudson Low and a Hurricane in the Central Atlantic. Let's see what the Euro has to say and the next few runs of the GFS.


It's been so bad that even a ghost on the machine is cause for excitement .....:-)
Quoting 150. StormTrackerScott:

All this talk of flooding in Asia yet the devastation in Chile is about as bad as it gets. Whole towns flooding now.

I think Doc needs to get up to snuff with over regions besides always Asia & india. The situation in Chile is very concerning.
Why are you making it seem like there is an either - or proposition where flooded Asians are less important than flooded Americans?

I agree there is cause for alarm, but the blog is certainly big enough for both stories ....
Quoting 173. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It will be interesting to see if a fujiwhara takes place.
Seems unlikely ....
Quoting 158. Patrap:

Today was our 44th consecutive day of 90F or greater.





About the same here Pat, I know how you feel but its probably more humid where you are!
We had a mere 36/c here yesterday, about 97/F. About average for he last 10 weeks in the Seville area.
Quoting 176. BahaHurican:

Why are you making it seem like there is an either - or proposition where flooded Asians are less important than flooded Americans?

I agree there is cause for alarm, but the blog is certainly big enough for both stories ....


Nothing ever gets mentioned about South America its like its the lost Country on here. Lots of big weather news going on down there as a result of this El-Nino. Chile is just getting hit hard and its making National News here in the states more so than news in Asia.
Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@TropicalTidbits 49 minutes ago
Relative to other months, September especially stands out as the active Atlantic TC genesis period for El Nino years:


The red graph looks like a very bad left handed gesture...
Hmm 00Z GFS looks interesting
Quoting 151. StormTrackerScott:

These storms in Chile are happening across regions that hardly get any rain a year. Look at this video below.

Link


Three Years of Rain Falls in 12 Hours as Deadly Storm Causes Flooding, Mudslides in Chile
By Chris Dolce, Published Aug 11 2015 12:20 PM EDT, weather.com
At least six people are dead in Chile after a potent weekend storm brought unusual rains to Chile's Atacama desert region, while the coast was battered by destructive waves and strong winds.
Antofagasta, Chile, saw 0.55 inches (14 mm) of rain in just 12 hours Saturday into Sunday. That may not sound like much, but it's actually more than three years worth of rain for this town where the average annual rainfall is just 0.14 inches (3.8 mm).
The unusual rains caused deadly flooding and mudslides just to the north of Antofagasta in the town of Tocopilla. According to Chile's National Office of Emergency of the Interior Ministry, at least three people are dead and one more is missing due to the flooding.
This is the second time in 2015 that this part of Chile has seen unusual rain amounts. In March, Antofagasta saw an even heavier bout of rainfall with 0.96 inches (24.4 mm) falling during the 24 hour period ending at 8 a.m. EDT March 26. That bout of rainfall also resulted in deadly flooding and was named our strangest weather event of 2015, so far.



There are a lot of mostly very short video snippets about this latest flash flood in Tocopilla/Chile available on youtube. They may show up when you open the video above. I cannot post them all in here.

Doc covered the Chile flood earlier this year, Scott:
A Rare Easter Typhoon for the Philippines; Chile Flood Toll: 107 Dead or Missing
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 09:27 PM GMT am 03. April 2015
INSIGHT: Pope's climate push at odds with U.S. Catholic oil investments
Source: Reuters - Wed, 12 Aug 2015 05:00 GMT, By Richard Valdmanis
Hot and sunny here for nearly a week, so of course it will be cloudy for the meteor shower..... :(
Comparing GFS 00Z to 06Z runs
Showing Atlantic MDR Storm is trending W and S

00Z showed storm moving W then WNW just skirting the NE Caribbean and passing well E of Eastern Bahamas
06Z showing storm moving W and now moving into the E Caribbean passing S of PR and into Hispaniola and to E tip of Cuba

We should keep an eye on this see if models continue this storm development trend over next week and if so this could be the first storm rain event for the islands for this season

decent.tw.45w
Quoting 190. wunderkidcayman:

Comparing GFS 00Z to 06Z runs
Showing Atlantic MDR Storm is trending W and S

00Z showed storm moving W then WNW just skirting the NE Caribbean and passing well E of Eastern Bahamas
06Z showing storm moving W and now moving into the E Caribbean passing S of PR and into Hispaniola and to E tip of Cuba

We should keep an eye on this see if models continue this storm development trend over next week and if so this could be the first storm rain event for the islands for this season




From what I can tell CMC/GEM is onboard with GFS as well
It develops the system same time as GFS and moves in same general direction as the GFS

We need to wait to see if Euro jumps on board as well as NAVGEM and UKMET in the coming week
The wave that is forecasted to develop by GFS and CMC/GEM is expected to come off Africa in about 60-72hrs from now according to the models
194. MahFL
Quoting 120. weathergirl2001:

Great map of India rainfall so far.

I want an Atlantic hurricane to track and talk about. That's why I joined!


Come back next year.
Quoting 163. Barefootontherocks:

I always thought of the trades as being surface wind. Because of the old sailing days I guess.


Correct for the most part, the shear is the difference between the lower level easterly trades and the higher level westerlies.
Big storm in SE Pacific makes waves too big for international surfing competition.
197. MahFL
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:



Nothing ever gets mentioned about South America its like its the lost Country on here.


South America is a Continent not a Country, typical American...always messing up geography...
198. MahFL
Hmmm, most of the tropical Atlantic is now above normal temperature :

199. MahFL
TS Hilda is managing to fire some new convection :

GFS shows another ghost storm headed for its death most likely near the islands.I predict the storm will be dropped very soon from the model.The shear in the caribbean has been near or surpassed record levels all season long.
Europe Heat Wave Sets All-Time Record in Germany, Again; Prompts Poland Power Cuts

An extended heat wave is smashing all-time records in parts of Europe for the second time this summer, and may remain in place into next week.

Triple-digit heat prompted Poland's national supplier to cut electricity to factories for several hours Monday. The combination of this extended heat plus dry weather has left rivers used to cool Poland's power plants running low.


Link
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:



Nothing ever gets mentioned about South America its like its the lost Country on here. Lots of big weather news going on down there as a result of this El-Nino. Chile is just getting hit hard and its making National News here in the states more so than news in Asia.


do you have a update on the EPI EL Nino atmosphere index ? can i all have a link
Hothouse Mass Casualties Strike Egypt, Heatwave Continues to Hospitalize Thousands in Japan

Unfortunately, the early fears appear to have been all-too-valid. For in late July a seasonal flow of hot, humid air from India, Pakistan and the Persian Gulf began to settle over Egypt. The hot air issued from regions where deaths from 2015 heatwaves numbered in the hundreds and thousands, where hospitalizations numbered in the tens of thousands. As the heat dome extended its oppressive tendrils over Egypt, both temperatures and humidity spiked — pushing wet bulb readings into ranges that made it difficult for humans to maintain body temperatures. Official air temperature readings ranged from 35 to 47 degrees Celsius (95 to 116 degrees Fahrenheit) and the added moisture reduced the ability of evaporation to cool the skin.

The risk of heat injury rose. And over the past few days this hot air and humidity spike began to prey on Egyptian residents. The result was 42 tragic deaths due to the excess heat over the past two days alone. Scores more were hospitalized as the entire country from north to south sweltered.


Link
Quoting 198. MahFL:

Hmmm, most of the tropical Atlantic is now above normal temperature :




And now the Caribbean too
A friend of mine stopped by, or rather walked by yesterday.

He wants to know where the typical afternoon FL showers have been all summer long here in SW FL. He says sometimes he has to wait days for a cool off from some good rain.

I told him, maybe this weekend, first time I've seen the forecast on WU show more than 75% probability.


View on YouTube
Quoting 201. ColoradoBob1:

Europe Heat Wave Sets All-Time Record in Germany, Again; Prompts Poland Power Cuts

An extended heat wave is smashing all-time records in parts of Europe for the second time this summer, and may remain in place into next week.

Triple-digit heat prompted Poland's national supplier to cut electricity to factories for several hours Monday. The combination of this extended heat plus dry weather has left rivers used to cool Poland's power plants running low.


Link


The same Omega Block Pattern ongoing in Europe this month also occurred during the Super E-Nino in August 1997. Very similar set up pattern wise across the Globe compared to 1997. You should see this Pacific jet slamming into Chile. Just unreal weather going on down there and there is a blogger on from or near this area where all the heavy rains and severe weather is ongoing. I believe the blogger is pablsym don't quote me on the correct spelling.

One system already moved inland and yet another one offshore getting ready to move in.


Quoting 202. Tazmanian:



do you have a update on the EPI EL Nino atmosphere index ? can i all have a link


ESPI 2.71, AEI is hovering around 4.10 sigma.

Link
Quoting 200. washingtonian115:

GFS shows another ghost storm headed for its death most likely near the islands.I predict the storm will be dropped very soon from the model.The shear in the caribbean has been near or surpassed record levels all season long.


Maybe maybe not

With that last bit I disagree with you a little bit

The shear has been high but it's a little less strong as it was in June and July and it hasn't been strong all season long there has been moments (a few days to nearly a week) where shear has been within development threshold and some times that all a developing system needs when passing through the Caribbean

Now there are other factors too that has changed from June/July and now

Like warmer SSTs in the Caribbean

Slightly less and weaker SAL plumes (now I know that SAL plumes can vary at any time but still)

The slightly more moist environment in the Caribbean compared to mid/late June and July to right now and it is quite noticeable with before brown and black part of the spectrum on water vapour and now with white and colours on the WV spectrum
FWIW, the 00z CMC and the 06z GFS are both predicting TS development in 8-10 days out in the MDR with a realistic solution of a <50kt TS developing and dying out.

Whatever develops could be worth watching if it ends up north of the Lesser Antilles as the ridge in place would encourage a westerly path, as mentioned prior.

Or I could just be so desperately bored of the Atlantic that any ghost storm is interesting.
Quoting 209. CybrTeddy:

FWIW, the 00z CMC and the 06z GFS are both predicting TS development in 8-10 days out in the MDR with a realistic solution of a <50kt TS developing and dying out.

Whatever develops could be worth watching if it ends up north of the Lesser Antilles as the ridge in place would encourage a westerly path, as mentioned prior.

Or I could just be so desperately bored of the Atlantic that any ghost storm is interesting.


We might very well go without a named storm in August same as 1997. Global patterns are resembling 1997 especially in Europe.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 16h16 hours ago
Hey Europe... Omega Block setting up this week formed in another major El Nino during August.. good old Super 1997.
Now this is a real tropical cyclone season.

Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



ESPI 2.71, AEI is hovering around 4.10 sigma.

Link





thanks
I have a friend who works for the FBI and is situated in San Juan he said his water bill has been nearing $300 a month recently due to the drought being so intense in PR.

Todd Kimberlain ‏@ToddKimberlain 21h21 hours ago
Drought in Puerto Rico intensifies; water rationing gets stricter. http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Puerto-Rico- Intensifies-Water-Rationing-as-Drought-Worsens-201 50811-0012.html … #drought #puertorico
Quoting 212. Tazmanian:






thanks


anytime Taz!
Smoke and fires in eastern Russia

Terra/MODIS
2015/222
08/10/2015
03:35 UTC

Link
Quoting 211. CybrTeddy:

Now this is a real tropical cyclone season.




Yikes. 2 Monsters side by side. That set up should effect the weather pattern across the US in the long term especially if one of them recurves.
the CFSv2 update for tusday 12z seem like they update ever other day from the site i get them from

here what they have for CA and ever one else

it now has a 50/50 for SEP




A 50/50 for OCT




A dryer then norml NOV





now this is new for the CFSv2 it may be at last could be seeing that now we have a strong EL nino in place

A wet too vary wet DEC




A vary vary wet JAN




A wet FEB




A wet too vary wet MAR




A wet APR wish could all so mean a high risk of tornado in the mid W





A 50/50 for MAY



and thats it in tell the next update
It has come to the point where if it's not his way its the highway.This is JEFF MASTERS blog.Don't like it get off.
Good Morning. Good news for Hawaii as to the degraded-sheared look of Hilda and nice to see NOAA suspend a system makeover for the satt loops in light of the storm:

SPECIAL MESSAGE:

Due to a Regional critical weather event being declared as Hurricane Hilda approaches Hawaii, the planned system failover test has been suspended until further notice. For additional information please check www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html.  

I sure hope us in FL don't go from floods to wild fires like back in May/June 1998 after the last Super Nino. It seemed like my whole area was in flames back in June 1998 because of days with 100 degree temps with low humidity.
Quoting 216. StormTrackerScott:



Yikes. 2 Monsters side by side. That set up should effect the weather pattern across the US in the long term especially if one of them recurves.

Scott right on. If One of these Tropical Typhoons recurves on a more northerly track, there is a good possibility for a trough in the central or eastern part of the U.S. next week.
Quoting 216. StormTrackerScott:


Yikes. 2 Monsters side by side. That set up should effect the weather pattern across the US in the long term especially if one of them recurves.


If there is anything that will develop in the MDR or close to home it will be in September.

It will be interesting to see if neutral or El Nina conditions develop in early 2016 that would determine the type of Hurricane season we will get.
Quoting 216. StormTrackerScott:



Yikes. 2 Monsters side by side. That set up should effect the weather pattern across the US in the long term especially if one of them recurves.



the GFS seems too be picking up some in for CA maybe the 1st storm of the season i no long ways out but still it has not drop this idea


this was the 18z from tusday





here is the 00z looks like the same storm but even stronger and wetter





now here the 06z now this would be a rare set up on this happens



it has a a sub 1000mb low and its a vary wet storm but look where its at
StormTrackerScott:

Shocking records swells in Vina del Mar, Valparaiso and Concón

TV from Chile
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

I sure hope us in FL don't go from floods to wild fires like back in May/June 1998 after the last Super Nino. It seemed like my whole area was in flames back in June 1998 because of days with 100 degree temps with low humidity.
Good morning Scott . I dont believe it will, in fact, I believe most of Florida will be very wet, excluding the south. The deep jet along with the lingering effects of the the El Nino will provide a good chance of rain, maybe severe weather too...If not, I eat crow well, Baked in a crusty pie suits me.
Hottest summer since records began
The Local (Austria) Published: 12 Aug 2015 11:47 GMT 02:00
This summer has been the hottest on record for Austria - not only have the heatwaves lasted longer than usual, but parts of the country have also had more days with temperatures of 35C and over than ever before.
By Friday, Vienna is forecast to have had more days with the mercury at 35C [95F] and over than in the whole of the last ten years, the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) said.
The latest heatwave has left the capital sweltering after 13 days straight of so-called "desert weather". Previously the summer of 2013 was the hottest on record, but it only had five continuous days of sunshine and blazing heat. ...


Original message from Austrian Weather Service ZAMG in German.
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:



Nothing ever gets mentioned about South America its like its the lost Country on here. Lots of big weather news going on down there as a result of this El-Nino. Chile is just getting hit hard and its making National News here in the states more so than news in Asia.


Pablosyn always posts weather news about South America and keeps us informed. He hasn't commented on this blog post yet though, but if you read previous blogs, there's always snippets of info from him about the effect of the El Nino in South America - such as the recent heat wave they've had, or a line of intense storms that formed over part of Argentina/Brazil the other day etc.
Good morning! Just curious if anyone has seen any of the Perseids meteor shower? This is a real event (not like the 200 bears !!) and was supposed to be at its peak in the early morning hours.
Quoting 229. Llamaluvr:

Good morning! Just curious if anyone has seen any of the Perseids meteor shower? This is a real event (not like the 200 bears !!) and was supposed to be at its peak in the early morning hours.

Dear Llamaluvr,
The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks tonight 8/13/2015 between the hours of 2:00am to 4:00am Thursday morning. Its is supposed to be spectacular because no Moonlight interference. So the average is one meteor per 60seconds. Get to a dark spot not city lights or street lights look towards the East and good luck. Best case lie down and look up
Quoting 226. hydrus:

Good morning Scott . I dont believe it will, in fact, I believe most of Florida will be very wet, excluding the south. The deep jet along with the lingering effects of the the El Nino will provide a good chance of rain, maybe severe weather too...If not, I eat crow well, Baked in a crusty pie suits me.

Scott that wahat I was writing about late spring about the potential wildfires in Florida due to a super el nino. I was living in the Orlando Area near Altamonte Springs in 1997-1999 and he fires were all around us then. No lie smelled smoke for years. It was bad. and we all know the 197-1998 El Nino was ne of the strongest in recorded history!! BTW we really have to talk
Here is the NOAA July summary for Conus; consistent with El Nino in terms of the overall pattern across the US. In terms of global warning issues, Alaska is feeling the brunt as usual with the second warmest period in the modern record-keeping era:
Significant U.S. Climate Events for July 2015


233. MahFL
Hilda looking good again. Tropical cyclones never cease to amaze me how they can ebb and flow :

If this is true, watching weather development could become quite a boring thing ;-) And meteorologists would loose their job ...

Chinese scientists are claiming they can predict rain weeks away
businessinsider.com, South China Morning Post, Stephen Chen Aug. 12, 2015, 7:34 AM
A new weather forecasting model developed by Chinese researchers purports to detect heavy rainstorms weeks before they take place, challenging the "butterfly effect" thought to make such prediction impossible.
The scientists' algorithm can predict heavy rain up to 30 days in advance "without false alarm or omission", according to a paper published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. ...


Fortunately the article ends this way:

The new algorithm is not perfect however, the researchers said.
For instance, it can only predict heavy rain, and would require far more variables - and a corresponding increase in sophistication - to detect other extreme weather such as hailstorms or hurricanes.

dont.do.it...32second.ad.colorados.clip
Wow, look at this temperature forecast for Vienna (from wetteronline.de, probably derived from GFS): after a short deep plunge from the upper nineties Fahrenheit down to 70F (21C) for a day (probably accompagnied by thunder and lightning) and then back to the exceptional hights ...


Forecast for me (Mainz, mid Germany) is much more benign with normal German summerweather next week (hopefully! fingers crossed):


maybe a tropicalstorm by next weekend
algorithm...such a cool word

last 2 days it has felt, smelled & looked like fall

As usual, the best chance for an early season MDR cyclone is the "low rider" variety.
240. SLU
"Danny"

....doodle loo'

....wah,wah.......wah


Quoting 238. WaterWitch11:

algorithm...such a cool word

last 2 days it has felt, smelled & looked like fall




O Fall, How I yearn fo thee'...

Today is the 45th consecutive day of 90F or greater temps.

This 3rd Kelvin is no joke. Continuing to build and also hints on the TAO of the strongest WWB so far this year showing up west of the Date Line. We should also notice that 2015 is doing something that 1997 couldn't do and that is shove 30C SST's into Nino 3.4 sub surface. Giving credence to all these model projections showing 2.5C to 2.8C ENSO.

El Nino and the Indian monsoon

In recent decades, El Nino has been closely associated with deficient monsoon rainfall over India, so this year's underwhelming rainfall is not a total surprise. But the relationship isn't iron-clad. Monsoon rainfall was 2% above average in 1997 even as a strong El Nino very similar to the current one was building, and rainfall deficits are possible even without El Nino. El Nino Modoki, the type where warming is focused in the central tropical Pacific rather than toward the east, tends to be more effective at suppressing the monsoon than a classic east-Pacific El Nino. The monsoon is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, measured by the east-west difference in sea-surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD event tends to enhance moisture in the southwesterly flow over India that brings monsoon rain.




AGW is a mind blower, esp as to ENSO.

Imagine in another 50 years, what that is gonna do.

A Warmer wetter Globe is flexing in 2015.

Just when India thought the monsoon was fine, August comes along
The seasonal rainfall till now, from the start of June, is nine per cent below normal. Since the start of this month, rainfall is more than 20 per cent below normal.
The Indian Express, Written by Amitabh Sinha | New Delhi | Updated: August 12, 2015 6:25 pm
After two months of relatively satisfactory rainfall, August seems to be catching up with the deficient forecast that the Met department had made at the start of the monsoon season. So far, August has witnessed deficiencies of 20 or more per cent in most of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions. Only eight sub-divisions have received normal rainfall or more than that.
Convective rains, those caused by heating, in some places have eased the pressure and a low pressure area developing in the Bay of Bengal is likely to bring some relief to the southern peninsula which has been extremely dry, in the next few days. However, the overall rainfall in the country is likely to remain deficient in August, as well as September, a Met department official said. .
..
Quoting 240. SLU:

"Danny"


We already know what's going to happen lol.King shear will be waiting in his evil layer ready to bring on 50 knots of shear with his side kicks dry air and dust.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
248. SLU
Quoting 246. washingtonian115:

We already know what's going to happen lol.King shear will be waiting in his evil layer ready to bring on 50 knots of shear with his side kicks dry air and dust.


Once there's at least an interesting invest to track i'll take it given it's 2015.
Quoting 185. tampabaymatt:




The WPC really makes me chuckle sometimes, they can produce forecasts that have bafflingly overdone amounts while other forecasts are clearly too low. Forecasting 1-2 inches widespread across this area doesn't really make sense.