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Quiet in the Atlantic; Hilda Poised to Bother Hawaii

By: Jeff Masters 3:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2015

With mid-August at hand, the stress level of residents along the Atlantic's Hurricane Alley rises as African tropical wave season enters its climatological peak period. A steady supply of spinning disturbances emerge from the coast of Africa from mid-August through early October, providing weeks of suspense as we watch them develop and decay as they march across the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa and into the Caribbean. However, this year is atypical--there has only been decay. This, despite the fact that wind shear has been a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the eastern portion of the MDR, and sea surface temperatures have been near average. The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed. El Niño is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean that were generating a very high 30 - 50 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean on Monday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible there. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear will be lower, at times, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming in mid-August, those would be the most likely locations. Keep in mind, though, that the last time we had an El Niño event this strong--back in 1997--no named storms formed in the Atlantic during August, and only one named storm (Hurricane Erika) formed in September. It would not be a surprise to see similar behavior in 2015. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC continued to predict quiet conditions in the Atlantic for at least five days.


Figure 1. Vertical instability as of August 9, 2015 over the tropical Atlantic, from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles Islands. The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air all summer, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. Instability has also been unusually low in the Caribbean, but has been near average over the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.


Figure 2. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis for 8 am EDT Monday, August 10, 2015, from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS, shows plenty of dry air dominating the tropical Atlantic.

Hilda poised to bother Hawaii
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilda continues to weaken as it heads northwest at 9 mph towards Hawaii. Hilda is under high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots, and the shear will increase to 30 - 40 knots by Tuesday. This increasing shear should cause the hurricane to weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday. The speed with which Hilda weakens will be crucial for determining whether or not the storm will track over the Hawaiian Islands late this week; a weaker Hilda will tend to track more due west, caught in the low-level trade wind flow near the surface, while a stronger Hilda will tend to track more to the northwest, potentially leading to a landfall on Thursday. The Monday morning run of the European model favored this latter scenario, while the GFS model run showed Hilda turning due west and missing the Hawaiian Islands to the south. Either scenario is possible, and we will have to wait and see how the situation plays out.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Hilda.

In the Western Pacific, all looks to be quiet until late this week, when the European and GFS models predicts a new tropical depression will form in the waters midway between Hawaii and the Philippines' Luzon Island.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
i guess i was right about the Vertical instability as of August 9, 2015 over the tropical Atlantic, i sawthat map a few days aGO good blog!
I had just asked the question on the previous blog. Has a Super El Nino been officially declared?
So basically this post has summed up whats been going on all summer..Dead Atlantic and active pacific.
Quoting 3. Bucsboltsfan:

I had just asked the question on the previous blog. Has a Super El Nino been officially declared?
Wait until the officials declare it.I would take anything on the blog about this topic with a grain of salt.
Quoting 3. Bucsboltsfan:

I had just asked the question on the previous blog. Has a Super El Nino been officially declared?
No..I did not know such a designation exists.
Thanks Doc...Rather peaceful when the Atlantic is quiet
Quoting 6. hydrus:

No..I did not know such a designation exists.


I thought there was such a designation but now you have me wondering.
Quoting 3. Bucsboltsfan:

I had just asked the question on the previous blog. Has a Super El Nino been officially declared?


No

Quoting 6. hydrus:

No..I did not know such a designation exists.
Quoting 8. Bucsboltsfan:



I thought there was such a designation but now you have me wondering.


May maybe that had something to do with Scott making it up


Quoting 9. wunderkidcayman:



No




Just wondering why El Nino was being call "super" if it hasn't been declared. It's like calling a hurricane with 100mph winds a major.
3.4 Nino at 1.9C

Overall ONI is only at 1.0C
Quoting 11. Bucsboltsfan:



Just wondering why El Nino was being call "super" if it hasn't been declared. It's like calling a hurricane with 100mph winds a major.


Mainly due to the conditions currently in the strong category (Nino 3.4 at 1.9C), almost in the very strong or "Super" category. Although it won't be declared as such unless temperature anomalies of 2C or higher are able to persist for a 3 month period (so still a long way to go).
Quoting 11. Bucsboltsfan:



Just wondering why El Nino was being call "super" if it hasn't been declared. It's like calling a hurricane with 100mph winds a major.


Who has called it super there is no real people I've seen that calls it super anyway it's got some ways to go before it reaches there

Quoting 14. Envoirment:



Mainly due to the conditions currently in the strong category (Nino 3.4 at 1.9C), almost in the very strong or "Super" category. Although it won't be declared as such unless temperature anomalies of 2C or higher are able to persist for a 3 month period (so still a long way to go).


You got that right

Current ONI is only 1.0C




Thanks Dr. Masters.
  Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
Anyway I say Nino peaks at 1.9/2.0 (regular Nino values)
Peaks maybe 1.5/1.8 (ONI values)
IMO
Latest NMME


I guess the drought will continue for the rest of the year.
El Niño is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean that were generating a very high 30 - 50 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean on Monday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible there.
Looks like April.
Quoting 18. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway I say Nino peaks at 1.9/2.0 (regular Nino values)
Peaks maybe 1.5/1.8 (ONI values)
IMO


I believe Nino 3.4 is at 1.9 now. Do you think the El Nino has already peaked or do you think it won't go any higher before coming back down?
Definitely not "Super" yet, if there is such a thing. But it's certainly an impressive event for mid-summer.

Quoting 24. tampabaymatt:



I believe Nino 3.4 is at 1.9 now. Do you think the El Nino has already peaked or do you think it won't go any higher before coming back down?

Yep or very close to peaking
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting 8. Bucsboltsfan:



I thought there was such a designation but now you have me wondering.

Super El Nino is not an official designation, it is one that was created to further convey the magnitude of the event. Sort of like Superstorm Sandy.
Quoting 22. Gearsts:

Looks like April.



Nope April is a wet month for us and we are in a drought so not like April
Quoting 28. Grothar:




Nice looking tropical wave
Quoting 30. wunderkidcayman:



Nope April is a wet month for us and we are in a drought so not like April
Thanks for the informative reply.
Quoting 29. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Super El Nino is not an official designation, it is one that was created to further convey the magnitude of the event. Sort of like Superstorm Sandy.
And Jurassic El nino?
Congrats, Grothar. Although you failed to cause a new blog quickly last time, this time your last post in the previous blog precipitated a new blog entry by Dr. Masters five posts - and and only five minutes later! I'm impressed...
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

977mb (Surface) 335° (from the NNW) 12 knots (14 mph)


Hilda Recon
Quoting 28. Grothar:




Hopefully it won't fizzle out before getting to the islands!
Quoting 28. Grothar:




let me get my magnifying glass to read them words :)
Quoting 34. Gearsts:

And Jurassic El nino?


This El Nino will be "Donald Trump" level.
Quoting 38. WaterWitch11:



let me get my magnifying glass to read them words :)



There's words???
Quoting 39. tlawson48:



This El Nino will be "Donald Trump" level.
LOL!
Quoting 37. Envoirment:



Hopefully it won't fizzle out before getting to the islands!


It looks like it is going into the "Death Zone".
Quoting 35. Xulonn:

Congrats, Grothar. Although you failed to cause a new blog quickly last time, this time your last post in the previous blog precipitated a new blog entry by Dr. Masters five posts - and and only five minutes later! I'm impressed...


It happens all the time. Really, no matter what time of day or night. I post the greatest blog and BOOM. No one ever sees it. :)
Quoting 31. wunderkidcayman:



Nice looking tropical wave


I hope at least they get a little rain in the islands. I think at this point they will take anything.
Great explanation concerning the jet stream pattern.....


Link
Cool Animation of how the temps change as the Seasons go by.
Quoting 32. Grothar:


nice tropical wave
Quoting 39. tlawson48:



This El Nino will be "Donald Trump" level.
Quoting 45. yoboi:

Great explanation concerning the jet stream pattern.....


Link


Interesting, considering the paper doesn't mention the jet stream. What do you think this paper says, Yoboi?
Quoting 42. Grothar:



It looks like it is going into the "Death Zone".


Well wind shear isn't in the "complete destruction" category at the moment above the islands. It's in the 20-30kt range, so hopefully it won't completely destroy the tropical wave. It's the dry air ahead of it that'll likely take it out:



If it manages to keep it together and gets north of Puerto Rico, it may even have a chance to develop. Gives us something to watch, although chances are it'll fizzle out in a few hours time.
Quoting 39. tlawson48:



This El Nino will be "Donald Trump" level.


El-Nino speaks: "My SST's are great, those other SST's stupid, just idiots. You wouldn't even be talking about weather this year if it weren't for me. You don't think I'll peak Jurassic, I will call you childish names, and people will love me for it. We don't have time for climate correctness, I will be the next Super El-Nino, mark my words, and I'll make Mexico pay for it. You know who gets it? STS, that guy loves me, that's a smart guy. That La-Nina, just stupid."
Looks like some heavy rain is coming tonight and into Tuesday morning.


sunny weather in east haven this morning nice clouds in the sky and i take a walk to the store this morning!!
Sure hoping this next wave at least visits us for a few hours. Seems like every wave goes just south or north of STX. We sit and watch it rain a 1/2 mile off shore. We are in a historic drought here and need some relief soon. Livestock is dying or is being destroyed because of lack of water and food to keep the herds going. It has gotten bad enough that palms are starting to die off, and they can usually withstand quite a dry spell. Maybe this wave can stall over us for a day. :)
Quoting 50. Naga5000:



Interesting, considering the paper doesn't mention the jet stream. What do you think this paper says, Yoboi?


Anyways, I'll leave the AGU's press release on the paper here, which includes quotes from the author's and a description of what the paper states, including the author''s comment that they cannot make any conclusions on how this effects atmospheric patterns, "Changes in solar activity can also alter the atmospheric circulation pattern over the Atlantic, which in turn affects ocean circulation, but how this process works is still unknown, said Kobashi."

Quoting 52. DeepSeaRising:



El-Nino speaks: "My SST's are great, those other SST's stupid, just idiots. You wouldn't even be talking about weather this year if it weren't for me. You don't think I'll peak Jurassic, I will call you childish names, and people will love me for it. We don't have time for climate correctness, I will be the next Super El-Nino, mark my words, and I'll make Mexico pay for it. You know who gets it? STS, that guy loves me, that's a smart guy. That La-Nina, just stupid."

best satire ever.

Dramatic action in the sky over Europe right now. Strong thunderstorms popping up over Germany (not yet at my place though but not far away). Folks in North Rhine-Westphalia (Cologne, Bonn) "enjoy" endless electric rains for already many hours. I'd like to have a share of it!
(Saved loop. Source)
Did not know of this till now. I've been there 2 times at lake Mead. Took a red stone from the shore and into the suitcase going back home and it sits under my oak tree in the back yard. (Did same thing from St Lucia trip)


Quoting 23. Grothar:





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Quoting 58. barbamz:


Dramatic action in the sky over Europe right now. Strong thunderstorms popping up over Germany (not yet at my place though but not far away). Folks in North Rhine-Westphalia (Cologne, Bonn) "enjoy" endless electric rains for already many hours. I'd like to have a share of it!
(Saved loop. Source)


Interesting little swirl over Corsica!
Water very warm in the med right now.
Quoting 8. Bucsboltsfan:



I thought there was such a designation but now you have me wondering.
It was officially designated by STS Forecasting, but I'm not sure how well accepted that is among the other El Niño organizations.
Vertical instability as of August 9, 2015 over the tropical Atlantic been far below normal in the last three year..last year was far below normal the Vertical instability! its not all about El Niño
Quoting 56. Naga5000:



Anyways, I'll leave the AGU's press release on the paper here, which includes quotes from the author's and a description of what the paper states, including the author''s comment that they cannot make any conclusions on how this effects atmospheric patterns, "Changes in solar activity can also alter the atmospheric circulation pattern over the Atlantic, which in turn affects ocean circulation, but how this process works is still unknown, said Kobashi."




we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova.

Link

There is a 3% chance you are correct....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
watch out for severe weather in the northeast on tuesday
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS NEAR
20W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THAT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 19N E OF 25W.


watching this tropical wave right now!
Quoting 64. yoboi:



we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova.

Link

There is a 3% chance you are correct....

It's only a model. I thought you didn't trust models?
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
@TorgHacker will be interesting to see if the warm pool keeps migrating into Niño 3.4 and keeps 30C- 97 couldn't do that even


Quoting 29. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Super El Nino is not an official designation, it is one that was created to further convey the magnitude of the event. Sort of like Superstorm Sandy.


And I was looking for the official WMO difference between "Super" and "Super Duper"..
Guess I won't find it.
Quoting 62. CaneFreeCR:

It was officially designated by STS Forecasting, but I'm not sure how well accepted that is among the other El Niño organizations.


Once we eclipse 2C which could happen next week. We would enter into Super El-Nino. Now for it to be officially designated as that we would need a 3 month tri monthly which looks like its going to happen with ease.
Quoting 68. Misanthroptimist:


It's only a model. I thought you didn't trust models?


The only time a have an issue with a model is when there is continually readjusting of the data or expanding the margin of error to fit a narrative.....
I suspect some on here owe me an apology. Just saying with what I had to go thru last week when saying the same thing as Doc did above. Since some come on here and don't read his entry's but post here anyways I will bold this for you. Naga5000 & Ricderr take notice.

With mid-August at hand, the stress level of residents along the Atlantic's Hurricane Alley rises as African tropical wave season enters its climatological peak period. A steady supply of spinning disturbances emerge from the coast of Africa from mid-August through early October, providing weeks of suspense as we watch them develop and decay as they march across the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa and into the Caribbean. However, this year is atypical--there has only been decay. This, despite the fact that wind shear has been a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the eastern portion of the MDR, and sea surface temperatures have been near average. The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed. El Niño is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean that were generating a very high 30 - 50 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean on Monday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible there. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear will be lower, at times, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming in mid-August, those would be the most likely locations. Keep in mind, though, that the last time we had an El Niño event this strong--back in 1997--no named storms formed in the Atlantic during August, and only one named storm (Hurricane Erika) formed in September. It would not be a surprise to see similar behavior in 2015. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC continued to predict quiet conditions in the Atlantic for at least five days.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



No not at all but all you guys that doubted me now have some soul searching to do.
Not yet ;)
77. JRRP
What Doc posted is exactly what I was hammering home last week on here before some took it too far.

Remember me saying this last week folks.

It would seem that the pressure patterns from Pacific being very low to Atlantic very high infact at record levels at times would yield strong pushes of Sal off Africa due to stronger Easterly Winds.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



No not at all but all you guys that doubted me now have some soul searching to do.


Well, I think you know your subject, but you predicted an El Nino before this one, which fizzled out. Still, congrats on predicting this one.
Quoting 74. StormTrackerScott:

I suspect some on here owe me an apology. Just saying with what I had to go thru last week when saying the same thing as Doc did above. Since some come on here and don't read his entry's but post here anyways I will bold this for you. Naga5000 & Ricderr take notice.

With mid-August at hand, the stress level of residents along the Atlantic's Hurricane Alley rises as African tropical wave season enters its climatological peak period. A steady supply of spinning disturbances emerge from the coast of Africa from mid-August through early October, providing weeks of suspense as we watch them develop and decay as they march across the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa and into the Caribbean. However, this year is atypical--there has only been decay. This, despite the fact that wind shear has been a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the eastern portion of the MDR, and sea surface temperatures have been near average. The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed. El Niño is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean that were generating a very high 30 - 50 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean on Monday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible there. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear will be lower, at times, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming in mid-August, those would be the most likely locations. Keep in mind, though, that the last time we had an El Niño event this strong--back in 1997--no named storms formed in the Atlantic during August, and only one named storm (Hurricane Erika) formed in September. It would not be a surprise to see similar behavior in 2015. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC continued to predict quiet conditions in the Atlantic for at least five days.


Nowhere does it state El Nino caused SAL outbreaks. Try again.
Quoting 76. Gearsts:

Not yet ;)


No yet Gearst but we are well on our way now. Should surpass 2C next week as very large Downwelling Kelvin Wave is in progess.
Oh brother...
Quoting 71. StormTrackerScott:



Once we eclipse 2C which could happen next week. We would enter into Super El-Nino. Now for it to be officially designated as that we would need a 3 month tri monthly which looks like its going to happen with ease.


Over 2C has historically been a virtual guarantee of a wet winter for CA, so I'll be happy if we can hit that mark. Still has to follow through with the actual fall/winter rains, though.
Quoting 64. yoboi:



we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova.

Link

There is a 3% chance you are correct....


Go troll somewhere else. It was pleasant without you spreading nonsense and misinformation.
Quoting 72. yoboi:



The only time a have an issue with a model is when there is continually readjusting of the data or expanding the margin of error to fit a narrative.....

Yes, adjusting the data to be accurate is just deplorable, isn't it? I mean, imagine adjusting for the time of observation, for instance. That's just got to be cheating!

Thankfully, the satellite data are never adjusted...oh, wait. I think the CT just came apart. lol
Quoting 80. Naga5000:



Nowhere does it state El Nino caused SAL outbreaks. Try again.


Really then re read the post. Why do you think we are getting these frequent pushed of Dry Dusty Air off Africa? Ding ding answer is very high pressure causing increased low level easterly to strengthen toward the lower pressure air over the Pacific.

The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed.
Quoting 84. Naga5000:



Go troll somewhere else. It was pleasant without you spreading nonsense and misinformation.


You can't hide now Naga. I have some e-mails floating around and you might be surprised at some of the results. Once I get them all back then I will post on here.
Quoting 86. StormTrackerScott:



Really then re read the post. Why do you think we are getting these frequent pushed of Dry Dusty Air off Africa? Ding ding answer is very high pressure causing increased low level easterly to strengthen toward the lower pressure air over the Pacific.

The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed.


Do you know what the words, "In addition" mean? How about "Therefore, it is possible that if precipitation changes in the Sahel alter West African dust outbreaks, then this variability in rainfall may be the cause of our observed correlations. However, it has been shown that, at least for the summertime months, interannual changes in dustiness over the North Atlantic are related to changes in Sahel precipitation from the previous year and are not strongly correlated with same–year Sahel precipitation events" Link

Or how about, "The linear correlation between Niño3 SST anomalies and the Barbados dust record is found to be insignificant for the chosen period, indicating that El Niño and dust events over the Atlantic can be considered, to a first order, mathematically independent." Link

Please do some research.
Edit: Never mind.
In addition.... Hmmm? Doesn't say directly related too.
Quoting 88. Naga5000:



Do you know what the words, "In addition" mean? How about "Therefore, it is possible that if precipitation changes in the Sahel alter West African dust outbreaks, then this variability in rainfall may be the cause of our observed correlations. However, it has been shown that, at least for the summertime months, interannual changes in dustiness over the North Atlantic are related to changes in Sahel precipitation from the previous year and are not strongly correlated with same%u2013year Sahel precipitation events" Link

Or how about, "The linear correlation between Ni%uFFFDo3 SST anomalies and the Barbados dust record is found to be insignificant for the chosen period, indicating that El Ni%uFFFDo and dust events over the Atlantic can be considered, to a first order, mathematically independent." Link

Please do some research.


Oh boy have I done research buddy and yes you are correct. Where you go wrong is with stronger El-Nino's like the one in 2015. The stronger El-Nino's have stronger pushes of Dry Dusty Air off Africa again Like I said before because of very high pressure air being focused toward the lower pressures of the Pacific. 2015 we have seen near record high pressures across the Atlantic vrs near record low pressures over the Pacific. The net result increased easterlies which are tapping this Dry Air off Africa. So yes to 2 can be related. You gotta touch it up Naga.
There goes the neighborhood.
You know, I think I'll just sit this one out.
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:



Oh boy have I done research buddy and yes you are correct. Where you go wrong is with stronger El-Nino's like the one in 2015. The stronger El-Nino's have stronger pushes of Dry Dusty Air off Africa again Like I said before because of very high pressure air being focused toward the lower pressures of the Pacific. 2015 we have seen near record high pressures across the Atlantic vrs near record low pressures over the Pacific. The net result increased easterlies which are tapping this Dry Air off Africa. So yes to 2 can be related. You gotta touch it up Naga.


You haven't cited one paper. One, that's all I'm asking for. One paper that shows a direct link between El Nino and SAL outbreaks.
Now the GEM show a small and short-lived warm-core cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea on 15 August, just north of Libya:

Phase diagram: Link



Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Good point about the stability in the trop Atlc this year suppressing things RT @wunderground

Alex Kowaleski ‏@A_Kowaleski 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @wunderground Its been that way since at least 2013. Wonder if this is a new normal, at least for now.


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
@A_Kowaleski @wunderground ElNino has a way of changing global heat distributions such that next year might not have that issue
Quoting 83. TimSoCal:



Over 2C has historically been a virtual guarantee of a wet winter for CA, so I'll be happy if we can hit that mark. Still has to follow through with the actual fall/winter rains, though.


The altered jet stream could interfere with that, although that's speculative.
Quoting 99. tampabaymatt:




Hopefully those storms continue to build up the coast into my area near Fort Myers. So far, July has been very dry, sunny, and hot.
Well, I've done some soul searching, and I humbly apologize to anyone whom I've ever doubted their forecast, even if it was wrong for an entire year. I've now learned that the most important thing about weather forecasting is not if a forecast turns out to be right or wrong. It's that we give it the old college try. A forecast that's wrong this week might turn out to right next week, next month, or even next year but, you know, same thing...

Speaking of broken promises, the front that was to my north has now turned into a crummy outflow boundary. The MCS in TN has now turned into a broken line up around Birmingham with isolated convection. Nice and sunny and oven-like down here, with a heat advisory. It's 98 with a heat index of 114. Some sort of magic is supposed to occur overnight that gives me a 50% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow. If I get any rain tomorrow, I'm driving across the bridge into Georgia and buying a lottery ticket. We don't have a lottery in Alabama, which is probably why Georgia gets all the thunderstorms.
Wonder what the results are?


NHC 80L TEST 20150810 1800 126N 0570W
Shields up and holding strong.
Well we you have been predicting the same thing for almot two years now eventually it'll come to fruition :).A broken clock is rights twice a day.
Quoting 102. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully those storms continue to build up the coast into my area near Fort Myers. So far, July has been very dry, sunny, and hot.


I believe you meant to write August. I'm at 10.31" so far this month. A little over 42" since the rainy season started in mid May. Just unreal precipitation in Tampa this summer.
Anyone that wants more rain, just move to the Tampa Bay area. No matter what pattern the upper level winds go, we get destroyed with flooding rains on a regular basis. Remember to bring a kayak or boat with you though.
Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

Well we you have been predicting the same thing for almot two years now eventually it'll come to fruition :).A broken clock is rights twice a day.


Yep.
Quoting 59. RitaEvac:

Did not know of this till now. I've been there 2 times at lake Mead. Took a red stone from the shore and into the suitcase going back home and it sits under my oak tree in the back yard. (Did same thing from St Lucia trip)


St. Thomas is at the end of a very long arm of Lake Mead. The water level drops any time there's any kind of drought. I was there in 1999, when most of the old townsite was exposed, and I tramped around it for several hours. The townsite has been exposed due to water fluctuations in the 40's, 60's, and from about 1998 until today. I've been there three times since 1999 and the entire townsite was never under water. The difference since about 2010, due to the worsening drought, is that entire townsite is exposed and dry for the first time since 1945. You can download an interesting NPS field guide that gives a good overview of St. Thomas history and what it looks like today. If you want to visit, don't go in summer. It's one of the hottest places in the US, where temperatures regularly reach 120 degrees, and the St. Thomas Wash is subject to flash floods during the monsoon.
Does anyone else have an issue where the blog is taking a very long time to refresh? This just started happening on both my home and work PCs over the past few days. When a new blog is put up, it slightly improves the refresh time. But, once about 50 comments go up, it’s back to taking a minute or two to refresh.
Quoting 108. tampabaymatt:

Anyone that wants more rain, just move to the Tampa Bay area. No matter what pattern the upper level winds go, we get destroyed with flooding rains on a regular basis. Remember to bring a kayak or boat with you though.


I grew up in Tampa. I never heard anyone use language like "Destroyed" when referring to Summer rain storms. It's Florida ya'll. We get rain all the time.
Quoting 108. tampabaymatt:

Anyone that wants more rain, just move to the Tampa Bay area. No matter what pattern the upper level winds go, we get destroyed with flooding rains on a regular basis. Remember to bring a kayak or boat with you though.

Gladly. It seems like the pattern favors rain everywhere but here the past 8 days. During this time, I have seen no less than four massive areas of storms/rain disintegrate right before reaching us. At least it's hotter than holy h**l, a lot more comfortable than 78F with clouds and rain (sarcasm).
A long time ago in the Main development region there was life!


Quoting 98. Gearsts:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Good point about the stability in the trop Atlc this year suppressing things RT @wunderground

Alex Kowaleski ‏@A_Kowaleski 2h2 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @wunderground Its been that way since at least 2013. Wonder if this is a new normal, at least for now.


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
@A_Kowaleski @wunderground ElNino has a way of changing global heat distributions such that next year might not have that issue


Last year and again this year I posited in one or more posts that we may well be in a "new normal " of a less active period after the very busy seasons of the pre 2013 years. Dry stable air in the MDR has been a recurring theme now for about 3 prior years even without El Nino and you may recall that several of the expert predictions for recent prior years were busts after activity levels as forecasted failed to materialize.

inverted.V.38w
Quoting 112. RatRAP:



I grew up in Tampa. I never heard anyone use language like "Destroyed" when referring to Summer rain storms. It's Florida ya'll. We get rain all the time.



I'm not sure if you've been following the weather in Tampa lately, but these rain events have been a lot worse than "summer rain storms". Maybe my choice of words was poor, but yours are completely marginalizing weather events that have had a significant impact on the Tampa area and flooded a large number of homes.
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:

Does anyone else have an issue where the blog is taking a very long time to refresh? This just started happening on both my home and work PCs over the past few days. When a new blog is put up, it slightly improves the refresh time. But, once about 50 comments go up, it’s back to taking a minute or two to refresh.
Yeah, one of the images on here seems to be taking a long time to initially load. All the text font also turns into italic regardless of whether it's a quote. I don't load more than 50 posts at a time. Any more and things start going pear shaped.
Quoting 112. RatRAP:



I grew up in Tampa. I never heard anyone use language like "Destroyed" when referring to Summer rain storms. It's Florida ya'll. We get rain all the time.



It has been relentless. I'm a member at a golf course and they opened today for the first time in 2 weeks. Flooding is still occurring in Pasco county and last Monday Tampa exceeded it's annual rainfall. So maybe not destroyed but it has been pretty bad.
Quoting 95. Naga5000:



You haven't cited one paper. One, that's all I'm asking for. One paper that shows a direct link between El Nino and SAL outbreaks.


No answer??
121. SLU
Quoting 114. Gearsts:

A long time ago in the Main development region there was life!





I'm so glad to have been a part of the most active phase in Atlantic recorded history from 1995 - 2012. Will surely be missed.
Quoting 60. nrtiwlnvragn:

From August Monthly Ocean Briefing




Well it looks like we have moved ahead of the '82 event, so now it's '97 vs. '15 for the strongest El-Nino ever recorded. The Global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) was an interesting read.
I'm getting a decent shower at my location just south of Fort Myers. So far, this city is staying dry. We need the rain here. We have been dry so far in July and my grass is developing dead spots where the sprinkler is missing.
Quoting 121. SLU:



I'm so glad to have been a part of the most active phase in Atlantic recorded history from 1995 - 2012. Will surely be missed.
In the Tampa Bay area I still remember storms like Gordon (2000), Gabrielle (2001), Henri (2003), and Charley (2004). Gabrielle happened around Sept. 11 and I remember going to bed the night before and woke up the next day to see my cousin's pool flooded over and the winds were swaying the trees and the rain was falling really hard. Henri was kind of fun because early predictions was for it to become a minimal hurricane, that never materialized, but the tides were running high in Tampa Bay and along the inter coastal by Sand Key Beach. And of course Charley which never came up to Tampa Bay and made landfall south of here, but it sure scarred a lot of people away. We stayed back, we're not actually in an evacuation zone, and it was only expected to be a Cat. 3 hurricane at landfall. But I could remember the reverse contraflow on the Howard Frankland Bridge, it was crazy, the morning of Charley's supposed arrival, the tornado sirens were going off, and that's when I knew s**t was about to be real.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



No not at all but all you guys that doubted me now have some soul searching to do.
Maybe, but there is still that "200 bears" incident from last week.
Quoting 120. Bucsboltsfan:



No answer??
Research in progress.
More Typhoon activity it appears if GFS and ECMWF are right.



August NMME forecast for Nino 3.4


Ya I like to reserve those Big Terms for like:

2004 Charley, Jeanne and Francis. Those really destroyed my house. Tore off roof and shattered most of the windows. Fay 5 years later dropped 15-18" of rain in about 3 days and spurred me to buy a sump pump for my crawl space.
"Rain, rain come my way, don't stay away another day". All I see on this map is dust, and very little potential for rain. Guess I will have to pray a little harder. It's hot and it's dry here in Antigua.
Quoting 129. RatRAP:

Ya I like to reserve those Big Terms for like:

2004 Charley, Jeanne and Francis. Those really destroyed my house. Tore off roof and shattered most of the windows. Fay 5 years later dropped 15-18" of rain in about 3 days and spurred me to buy a sump pump for my crawl space.


What part of FL do you live in?
Quoting 131. tampabaymatt:



What part of FL do you live in?


Just east of Lake Apopka.
NASA GEOS5 DJF 2015-2016


CFS DJF 2015-2016
Quoting 133. RatRAP:



Just east of Lake Apopka.



You must be very close to me.
136. bwi
Quoting 134. Drakoen:

NASA GEOS5 DJF 2015-2016


CFS DJF 2015-2016



I already protected the east coast USA from cold weather this winter by booking a January-February vacation in Fiji. That ensures a mild sunny winter here in DC. Most accurate model by far.
Quoting 134. Drakoen:

NASA GEOS5 DJF 2015-2016

CFS DJF 2015-2016


Nothing like consistency. ;)


Here we go again
Quoting 137. StAugustineFL:



Nothing like consistency. ;)


CFS isn't a good model anyways.

You can view the full set of seasonal forecasting model here:

CPC Model Forecasts
Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:



Here we go again


You had to post that:(. Baynews9 has us at a 70% chance of rain starting on Thursday - Saturday.
Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:



You must be very close to me.

Yep not too far at all. Work for the Mouse. Hence the handle.
seems like this has been getting wetter for SEP

Quoting 140. Bucsboltsfan:



You had to post that:(. Baynews9 has us at a 70% chance of rain starting on Thursday - Saturday.


Well, at least for now, the bullseye is on Orlando, and not right on top of Tampa. The models must be picking up on something different from the last merry-go-stalled trough round.
can any one post the cfsv2 monthly forcast i want too see what it has for OCT NOV DEC
You know if the Hwy or main road is higher than your land then you are in for it come 5 or 10 year rain event. I learned that the hard way while living in Winter Haven a few years ago. Look around in Tampa and you will notice that too. Very prone to flooding in many areas. Pasco county? Forget about it. Land of Lakes is the clue there. Brooksville has some very high ground for Florida. That's where I experienced my first hurricane. Helena.
Quoting 136. bwi:



I already protected the east coast USA from cold weather this winter by booking a January-February vacation in Fiji. That ensures a mild sunny winter here in DC. Most accurate model by far.


Nope. It ensures you'll get snowed in and miss your flight(s)

Quoting 139. Drakoen:



CFS isn't a good model anyways.




It's done very well in the means of precip for me the past several months. It was showing a dry Texas a few months before July/August came and here it is, I haven't gotten any rain outside of a trace in over 5 weeks now. Now the temperatures I can't say the same about :)

We shall see which one is correct for this winter.
Quoting 147. Gearsts:





thanks
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:

Does anyone else have an issue where the blog is taking a very long time to refresh? This just started happening on both my home and work PCs over the past few days. When a new blog is put up, it slightly improves the refresh time. But, once about 50 comments go up, it’s back to taking a minute or two to refresh.

This afternoon every comment was in italics, quote and new text alike.
Quoting 134. Drakoen:

NASA GEOS5 DJF 2015-2016


CFS DJF 2015-2016



Alternative 1 looks really ugly!
Quoting 145. Tazmanian:

can any one post the cfsv2 monthly forcast i want too see what it has for OCT NOV DEC


The latest PDF corrected version I saw showed an ONI ensemble mean of about 1.9K for OND
Quoting 129. RatRAP:

Ya I like to reserve those Big Terms for like:

2004 Charley, Jeanne and Francis. Those really destroyed my house. Tore off roof and shattered most of the windows. Fay 5 years later dropped 15-18" of rain in about 3 days and spurred me to buy a sump pump for my crawl space.


Charley killed my Nana! My grandmother was found dead on the floor of her kitchen in Maitland, FL morning after Charley hit. They had no power, and a few small trees were down in the yard but the house was fine. She was 82 and no autopsy was done, but I still attribute to stress of Charley. I remember the mess the area was, particularly Winter Park where a tornado struck. It was tough navigating to funeral home and service.
Quoting 153. wartsttocs:



The latest PDF corrected version I saw showed an ONI ensemble mean of about 1.9K for OND



that post dos not have any thing to about my post that i made for cfsv2 monthly forcast but thanks



all so i found what i was looking for
Good night post from Germany with some more weather news from over here (apart from those I've posted this morning in the earlier blog).

As I've proudly announced this morning we got a nice thunderstrom in the wee hours of the day which "dumped" 0,4 inches onto my town Mainz. To the west of me it should have been even a bit more (great for the vines which are growing there). Still, as one of many official weather station nearby Mainz-Marienborn shows we're lagging behind average rainfall with 350mm = 14 inches behind average this year (while the first two months were still above average, all the following months presented a minus). Source. Other stations show similar numbers. Today some more strong storms popped up around me; they should have brought some regional short relief for farmers and gardeners, but there are still a lot of regions which got nothing. On the other side, in our northwest at a line of convergence of different airmasses it rained the whole day (with sums up to 100mm = 3,9 inches) in a couple of hours, but those rains were restricted to some small strips while next town might have got few or nothing. Overall, in the northwest the situation isn't as dire with the drought as in more southeast parts of the country (and their neighbors). Today German news reported that those parts are in the worst drought since 50 years.

And it still stays (quite) hot, day and night (and I'm fed up with the heat, to tell the truth, lol).

Washington Post's weather gang (James Samenow) published a roundup of the European heatwave today, very often quoting Wu (or doc or Bob Henson). Guess in the next WU-Post WP will be quoted :-)
But sure, it's difficult to get an overwiew with all those different countries and languages in Europe.

So some more fresh single and random news:

Polish rivers at alarmingly low levels
10.08.2015 16:20
The waterline in many of Poland’s waterways has dropped to critically low levels.
The ongoing hot weather, coupled with low rainfall in Poland, has led to the level of water in the country’s rivers dropping to alarming levels.
The water in the Bóbr river in southwest Poland measures as little as 11 cm (4.3 in).
Many localities in Poland now lack water in wells and taps. ...



Low water levels in the Vistula river. Photo: PAP/Tomasz Gzell - See more at: http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/216715,Polish-ri vers-at-alarmingly-low-levels#sthash.yL9DyzrK.dpuf

2015 heat sparks memories of 2003
10th August, 2015 by Gabriel Stone
A July heatwave across much of northern Europe has led several winemakers to draw comparisons with the notoriously hot 2003 vintage....

Heatwave causes cooling crisis across Costa del Sol
Costa del Sol, 10 August 2015
RECENT heat has left its mark in Malaga Province by leading to an almost complete lack of air conditioning units and electric fans.

(Spain isn't the only place with such sortages. I've read comment from other places like "No fan, nowhere.")

Italy hit by storms and hail as heatwave breaks
The Local (Italy) Published: 10 Aug 2015 14:01 GMT+02:00
Italy's Civil Protection office has issued weather warnings for many Italian provinces over the next two days as the country is hit by a series of violent storms.

Now some oddities:



Try to find out what the following article is telling the Brits (who are really in need for some summerly temperatures) about the temperature of the next week (good luck!). Of course they want their share of the European heatwave by any means, but obviously there official weather service doesn't comply:

UK weather: Britain set to swelter in 30C heat this week - but expect violent thunderstorms
The Mirror, 12:01, 10 August 2015, By Nathan Rao
Boiling air from the Continent will send thermometers rocketing across swathes of the country from tomorrow.
Britain could be hotter than Tenerife and Barcelona this week - but forecasters warn the sweltering heat could bring violent thunderstorms.
Boiling air from the Continent will send thermometers rocketing across swathes of the country from tomorrow.
The Met Office reports temperatures will only hit 22C (71,6F) but other forecasters have said they could soar to 30C (86F) in southern parts of Europe.
The southeast is expecting temperatures in the high 20Cs while Scotland and the north will be cooler at around 20C (68F).
...[The article is going on for a while)




T wave headed for the Islands, hope they some rain from this one!
Quoting 155. Tazmanian:




that post dos not have any thing to about my post that i made for cfsv2 monthly forcast but thanks



all so i found what i was looking for

My bad, I thought you were asking about Nino 3.4 ONI anomalies because that was being discussed earlier in the blog.

Addition to post #156 as I'm not allowed to edit it:
Article in the WP: Central and eastern Europe simmering in historic heat wave
(And sorry for the spelling errors I cannot correct, huh).

Edit: Here is a photo gallery from Berlin showing the trees shedding their leaves due to the drought.

Have to go, have a good night!
Quoting 158. wartsttocs:


My bad, I thought you were asking about Nino 3.4 ONI anomalies because that was being discussed earlier in the blog.





thats all right


i like this one better


Quoting 157. stormpetrol:




T wave headed for the Islands, hope they some rain from this one!
Rain would be nice.
Proper, rainy season rain....
Weve had showers, and some of those have been heavy, but we really could use some drenching days.
have not had much of that this season.
Quoting 136. bwi:



I already protected the east coast USA from cold weather this winter by booking a January-February vacation in Fiji. That ensures a mild sunny winter here in DC. Most accurate model by far.
Winter knows how to do it's thing with it's jamming! Winter be foreal oh!
Quoting 144. tampabaymatt:



Well, at least for now, the bullseye is on Orlando, and not right on top of Tampa. The models must be picking up on something different from the last merry-go-stalled trough round.
All this is due to an Eastern trough that's forecast to close off into a surface somewhere over the Southeast. Thursday is probably too early for this to happen, but it may happen by Friday or early Saturday. The models are in agreement about the low forming but they are aren't in agreement about where. The GFS had the low right along the Panhandle and sagging south by Friday, so the WPC forecast is following the GFS. However, the latest GFS has the low over southern GA at 54 hours and wandering around there for 6 hours. It next places the low in the Gulf off the LA coast in just another 6 hours. It then leaps back to the GA/FL border around Jacksonville. Six hours later it moves west to the AL/FL border just south of my house, and it leaps back into the Gulf near LA again 6 hours later. Then, at 90 hours, the low vanishes, never to be seen again. My guess is that the GFS doesn't quite have a handle on this yet. :-)
Quoting 161. pottery:

Rain would be nice.
Proper, rainy season rain....
Weve had showers, and some of those have been heavy, but we really could use some drenching days.
have not had much of that this season.
Unfortunately, even the rainbow view can't make this look better. The Caribbean dry air is eating those clouds for dinner. This is going to be an even weaker version of the much loved ex-94L. It appears that, unless you live in a few select spots in Florida, it's going to be a dry summer for most of us. :-(
Who screwed up the blog and made everything italics?

Quoting 163. GeoffreyWPB:




Poof. Sigh...
Quoting 159. barbamz:

Addition to post #156 as I'm not allowed to edit it:
Article in the WP: Central and eastern Europe simmering in historic heat wave
(And sorry for the spelling errors I cannot correct, huh).

Edit: Here is a photo gallery from Berlin showing the trees shedding their leaves due to the drought.

Have to go, have a good night!

I hope you have a nice, cool(er) night, Barb. Our native trees are also starting to shed their leaves due to our drought and heat wave. With every breeze, the leaves flutter down like snowstorm. We got some outflow winds from storms to the west of us on Thursday and it looked like a blizzard, with the yard covered an inch deep in leaves. Not a good thing to see in August. I think we're all getting sick of this hot weather.
Quoting 168. Astrometeor:

Who screwed up the blog and made everything italics?



Poof. Sigh...
Been happening on and off all day. Probably part of the never ending improvements here at WU. And yes, unfortunately, poof it is...
Quoting 168. Astrometeor:

Who screwed up the blog and made everything italics?



Poof. Sigh...
No surprise with what the current conditions are like there.
172. beell
Quoting 168. Astrometeor:

Who screwed up the blog and made everything italics?



Poof. Sigh...


Has to be the Italians.
Quoting 154. BarometerGirl:



Charley killed my Nana! My grandmother was found dead on the floor of her kitchen in Maitland, FL morning after Charley hit. They had no power, and a few small trees were down in the yard but the house was fine. She was 82 and no autopsy was done, but I still attribute to stress of Charley. I remember the mess the area was, particularly Winter Park where a tornado struck. It was tough navigating to funeral home and service.
I'm sorry to hear that. I can see how a hurricane like Charley could scare an elderly person like her enough to aggravate a preexisting condition. Heck, it could probably do it to me, and I'm not 82, just elderly. Hurricanes and tornadoes are not fun things for people of any age if you're the one going through it.
Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:



Here we go again


Denis Phillips has been tweeting about this for a couple days. I'm playing golf tomorrow. Hope the course is in some kind of shape. Too hot for cart paths only.
Quoting 172. beell:



Has to be the Italians.
I see what you did there...


much more moist than conditions that faced ex94l
Quoting 160. Tazmanian:




thats all right


i like this one better






Nah
This one
Anyone seen Bonnie (LABonBon) around lately? She's a good blogger,and I miss her posts. I hope everything is OK.
Quoting 176. stormpetrol:



much more moist than conditions that faced ex94l


Yeah too bad we don't have an invest in the area

Massive Wave about to exit the West coast of Africa. To all you folks in the Cape Verde Islands, "time to batten down the hatches boys".
Quoting 176. stormpetrol:



much more moist than conditions that faced ex94l
Doesn't look more moist to me.



At least 94L was an actual low. This is a none too healthy looking tropical wave. But, I guess we can always hope.
Ouch, I don't think Hilda will make it to the Big Island much intact at all.
183. beell
SPECIAL MESSAGE:
On Wednesday, August 12, at approximately 1230 UTC (8:30 a.m. EDT), a planned system failover test for up to 7 hours will result in delayed or missing data on the GOES and SPSD web sites and an outage of the OSPO web site. Please monitor www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html for additional information. The failover test may be delayed or suspended if there is a critical weather event. The backup date for this test is Thursday, August 13, 2015.

Link
Quoting 182. opal92nwf:

Ouch, I don't think Hilda will make it to the Big Island much intact at all.



Looks like she's plowing straight into a giant blow dryer.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While the low
has recently become better defined, further development of this
system is unlikely due to increasingly unfavorable upper-level
winds while it moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions should
support some development of this system by the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Quoting 180. HurriHistory:


Massive Wave about to exit the West coast of Africa. To all you folks in the Cape Verde Islands, "time to batten down the hatches boys".
its better not die out!!
Evening all... well, I got no excuse not to get my work done by Friday... no storms to watch!

Quoting 167. sar2401:

Unfortunately, even the rainbow view can't make this look better. The Caribbean dry air is eating those clouds for dinner. This is going to be an even weaker version of the much loved ex-94L. It appears that, unless you live in a few select spots in Florida, it's going to be a dry summer for most of us. :-(

LOL, true that.
Had a cloudburst overhead for an hour on Saturday night, but we were up in the mountains where that happens pretty regularly.
After the rain we went outside, and I have not seen the sky that clear for a long time !
Milky Way was scattered across the sky, and when small grandson looked up at it through the binoculars he said it looked like ''scrunched-up tin foil''. Pretty accurate, actually !
Quoting 187. hurricanes2018:

its better not die out!!

...but it probably will. :):))
Quoting 119. Bucsboltsfan:



It has been relentless. I'm a member at a golf course and they opened today for the first time in 2 weeks. Flooding is still occurring in Pasco county and last Monday Tampa exceeded it's annual rainfall. So maybe not destroyed but it has been pretty bad.


Not here BucsBolts, gonna have to run the sprinklers tonite as no rain for the past 4 days and no rain expected until Thursday...Amazing the difference of about 80 miles makes here in Florida
Quoting 130. islandgirls:

"Rain, rain come my way, don't stay away another day". All I see on this map is dust, and very little potential for rain. Guess I will have to pray a little harder. It's hot and it's dry here in Antigua.
You guys have really been in the dry spot over there in the NE Caribbean... not even a Twave to give a few showers... :o/...
Quoting 113. HurrMichaelOrl:


Gladly. It seems like the pattern favors rain everywhere but here the past 8 days. During this time, I have seen no less than four massive areas of storms/rain disintegrate right before reaching us. At least it's hotter than holy h**l, a lot more comfortable than 78F with clouds and rain (sarcasm).

Im right there with you HurrMichaelOrl!!! getting quite dry here!!
Quoting 180. HurriHistory:


Massive Wave about to exit the West coast of Africa. To all you folks in the Cape Verde Islands, "time to batten down the hatches boys".


It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Super El Nino!

Concerned Citizen: "Oh Super El Nino! We have a tropical wave that's heading right for us!"
Super El Nino: "HA! This tropical wave doesn't stand a chance against the might of SUPER EL NINO!"
Concerned Citizen: "Wait, what are you....?"

*WHOOSH*

Super El Nino: "This is the end of the line for you, Tropical Wave!"
Tropical Wave: "No one can stop me! Soon I will establish a low level circulation and become the strongest Hurricane ever recorded!"
Super El Nino: "Feel the wrath of my wind shear!" *SHWOOM!"
Tropical Wave: "NO! You displaced my convection and destroyed my heavy thunderstorms!"
Super El Nino: " Surrender now and I may just let you bring rain showers!"
Tropical Wave: "You underestimate me El Nino! I'm not finished yet! Can you stand against... THE MJO!" *WOOM*
Super El Nino: "A little Saharan Dust out to dry you out!" *PRACKLPRACKLPRACKL*
Tropical Wave: "Auuugh....*gasp*...can't....reform...*wheez*...no moisture..."
Super El Nino: "And now to finish you off once and for all, HIGH PRESSURE!" *BONG*
*Tropical Wave dies*

*WHOOSH*
Concerned Citizen: "You killed the tropical wave!"
Super El Nino: "Ha ha. No need to thank me. Nothing to fear when Super El Nino is here!"
Concerned Citizen: "Thank you? You idiot! We're in the middle of a drought! We practically invited the Tropical Wave here!"
Super El Nino: "Well...um...errr....another day saved by SUPER EL NINO!" *WHOOSH*
Hurricane Hilda...

Houston is so hot and dry. In regards to rain, we either get "all of it or none of it" All or nuthin at all, great song by Springsteen. I have a vacation to Maui, my first, Sept 18 to 26th. Who wants to bet a tropical system will rain on our party? Ugh..
198. JLPR2
I miss thunderstorms.... :(
tear*

Quoting 144. tampabaymatt:



Well, at least for now, the bullseye is on Orlando, and not right on top of Tampa. The models must be picking up on something different from the last merry-go-stalled trough round.




Well it is the WPC, they don't always seem to handle how the difference between convective development over land and over water. Numerous water convective development tends to limit inland progression of convection due to overcast conditions over land, leading to stabilization.

My guess is that the WPC is emphasizing that upper level energy will help overcome the stability since this system will have more upper energy than some of the past events we've had. Still, while I think upper level energy will help, I don't think it will lead to the heaviest being over the interior. West Coast FL zones should probably still be the places for heaviest rains.
Quoting 178. sar2401:

Anyone seen Bonnie (LABonBon) around lately? She's a good blogger,and I miss her posts. I hope everything is OK.



Last time i saw her was around my birthday last month.
Quoting 197. robinvtx1215:

Houston is so hot and dry. In regards to rain, we either get "all of it or none of it" All or nuthin at all, great song by Springsteen. I have a vacation to Maui, my first, Sept 18 to 26th. Who wants to bet a tropical system will rain on our party? Ugh..



take a # CA has been vary dry for 4 years now so if any one needs rain is CA
Quoting 195. Xyrus2000:


I laughed too hard at this. Now every time I see the term Super El Nino I'll remember this. Thanks for that.
Quoting 198. JLPR2:

I miss thunderstorms.... :(
tear*


OMG
Good evening

The sad reality for those hoping for action is that the CV season may only last from the end of August to the end of September. After that perhaps a cold front will spin something up in October with an early shut down of the season by the 20th October, the secondary peak being around the 10th.

We have been in a period of reduced activity for about 3 years with this being the slowest season due to El Nino on top of all the other factors.
205. txjac
Quoting 201. Tazmanian:




take a # CA has been vary dry for 4 years now so if any one needs rain is CA


Hey Taz. How long has the drought been happening in CA? Since when?

Nevermind ...I see you say four years
Quoting 202. TimSoCal:



I laughed too hard at this. Now every time I see the term Super El Nino I'll remember this. Thanks for that.
He needs someone to draw the pictures now.... lol
207. txjac
Quoting 204. kmanislander:

Good evening

The sad reality for those hoping for action is that the CV season may only last from the end of August to the end of September. After that perhaps a cold front will spin something up in October with an early shut down of the season by the 20th October, the secondary peak being around the 10th.

We have been in a period of reduced activity for about 3 years with this being the slowest season due to El Nino on top of all the other factors.


Reduced activity is fine. I just wish that the rain was more "evenly" distributed by Mother Nature.
It's like all or nothing ...would like to see a balance.

Invests, TD'd and TS's are fine in my book from here in Houston. Not looking for a whopper
Also wish that something in the EPAC would ride up the coast and give CA some much needed rain
Meanwhile on the SW coast of Grand Cayman only .28 inches of rain so far in August when afternoon thunderstorms would be the norm pretty much every day. Very oppressive heat with little in the way of relief. Played golf last Sunday and not a breath of wind on the course. More like May in terms of wind deficit with the sea being like glass.

Quoting 207. txjac:



Reduced activity is fine. I just wish that the rain was more "evenly" distributed by Mother Nature.
It's like all or nothing ...would like to see a balance.

Invests, TD'd and TS's are fine in my book from here in Houston. Not looking for a whopper
Also wish that something in the EPAC would ride up the coast and give CA some much needed rain


The problem is that the reduction is so severe that drought prevails throughout the Caribbean. Fortunately our drinking and household water is desalinated otherwise it would be a very serious situation relying on rain water catchment.
Quoting 181. sar2401:

Doesn't look more moist to me.



At least 94L was an actual low. This is a none too healthy looking tropical wave. But, I guess we can always hope.



Active t-waves interacting with dying fronts north of the Caribbean is one of the main areas we should look for in W-Atl developments this year.
Quoting 205. txjac:



Hey Taz. How long has the drought been happening in CA? Since when?

Nevermind ...I see you say four years



one thing for sure CA can not take any more of this
The GFS is offering up the potential for simultaneous Category 5 typhoons in the West Pacific next week. Of course, it's worth noting that forecasts from the model have been generally overzealous this season. It'd be cool to see, still.



Hilda Poised to Bother Hawaii
Quoting 11. Bucsboltsfan:



Just wondering why El Nino was being call "super" if it hasn't been declared. It's like calling a hurricane with 100mph winds a major.


Well considering water temp anomalies are already well above the threshold needed to be considered an El Nino is a good start. However, I'm not really a fan of calling it a "super" El Nino by any means. Unless it clearly easily ends up surpassing the 1997 event, I don't think "super" El Nino would be good terminology. We need to be careful not to hype things in meteorology. I realize some of us are just enthusiasts and never plan on being scientists, but as fellow people all interested in the science, whether it be pro, student, or just enthusiast. We should all strive to not hype, even though are natural inclination is to hype what we love! lol
SPECIAL MESSAGE:
On Wednesday, August 12, at approximately 1230 UTC (8:30 a.m. EDT), a planned system failover test for up to 7 hours will result in delayed or missing data on the GOES and SPSD web sites and an outage of the OSPO web site. Please monitor www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html for additional information. The failover test may be delayed or suspended if there is a critical weather event. The backup date for this test is Thursday, August 13, 2015.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N20W TO
12N23W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W
FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WEAK SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE TRAILING A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH AND THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 26N15W ALONG 18N19W 11N24W TO 10N34W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N44W 11N56W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-50W AND
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 50W-56W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-39W.
Quoting 214. Jedkins01:



Well considering water temp anomalies are already well above the threshold needed to be considered an El Nino is a good start. However, I'm not really a fan of calling it a "super" El Nino by any means. Unless it clearly easily ends up surpassing the 1997 event, I don't think "super" El Nino would be good terminology. We need to be careful not to hype things in meteorology. I realize some of us are just enthusiasts and never plan on being scientists, but as fellow people all interested in the science, whether it be pro, student, or just enthusiast. We should all strive to not hype, even though are natural inclination is to hype what we love! lol


Totally agree with you. I love weather but I'm not a fan of hype. I'f we're at a strong El Niño right now then call it as is.
WEATHER
African dust blows into Houston, more on the way



By Travis Herzog
Thursday, July 02, 2015
HOUSTON (KTRK) --
Have you noticed the hazy gray sky over Houston today? Another dust cloud from Africa is here, traveling 5,000 miles across the Atlantic basin to Texas, and even more are on the way.

Global weather patterns are being shifted in unusual ways due to a strengthening El Nino, or warming of the waters, in the central Pacific Ocean. One side of effect is that unusually strong winds called "easterlies" are blowing from Africa straight toward the Caribbean and then turning north toward Texas, sending a larger than normal number of Sahara Desert dust clouds our way.

What does this mean for us?

For starters, we're seeing a lot more haze in the sky. This is due to the fine dust particles that are most heavily concentrated about 10,000 feet off the ground. Some of those fine dust particles are falling down to the ground, reducing our air quality and possibly aggravating the lungs of those with conditions such as asthma and emphysema.

On a positive note, these dust clouds are typically associated with high wind shear and dry air, reducing the odds of tropical development. Studies have also shown that these dust clouds can deposit minerals in the soil that are beneficial to plants.

Watch the video above as Meteorologist Travis Herzog shows NASA's computer model forecast for the arrival of more African dust this holiday weekend.
http://abc13.com/weather/african-dust-blows-into- houston-more-on-the-way/823923/


Quite difficult but thats a Possible rain event for us...
Quoting 191. sanflee76:



Not here BucsBolts, gonna have to run the sprinklers tonite as no rain for the past 4 days and no rain expected until Thursday...Amazing the difference of about 80 miles makes here in Florida


Where do you live? Guessing south along the coast?
Brian LaMarre ‏@blamarre 11h11 hours ago

@EricBlake12 Only two F4 #tornadoes occurred in Florida - both in Tampa Bay Area - April 1958 and April 1966 - both strong #ElNino years.
Quoting 174. BobinTampa:



Denis Phillips has been tweeting about this for a couple days. I'm playing golf tomorrow. Hope the course is in some kind of shape. Too hot for cart paths only.


Where are you playing? Most of the courses are pretty wet.
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

WEATHER
African dust blows into Houston, more on the way



By Travis Herzog
Thursday, July 02, 2015
HOUSTON (KTRK) --
Have you noticed the hazy gray sky over Houston today? Another dust cloud from Africa is here, traveling 5,000 miles across the Atlantic basin to Texas, and even more are on the way.

Global weather patterns are being shifted in unusual ways due to a strengthening El Nino, or warming of the waters, in the central Pacific Ocean. One side of effect is that unusually strong winds called "easterlies" are blowing from Africa straight toward the Caribbean and then turning north toward Texas, sending a larger than normal number of Sahara Desert dust clouds our way.

What does this mean for us?

For starters, we're seeing a lot more haze in the sky. This is due to the fine dust particles that are most heavily concentrated about 10,000 feet off the ground. Some of those fine dust particles are falling down to the ground, reducing our air quality and possibly aggravating the lungs of those with conditions such as asthma and emphysema.

On a positive note, these dust clouds are typically associated with high wind shear and dry air, reducing the odds of tropical development. Studies have also shown that these dust clouds can deposit minerals in the soil that are beneficial to plants.

Watch the video above as Meteorologist Travis Herzog shows NASA's computer model forecast for the arrival of more African dust this holiday weekend.
http://abc13.com/weather/african-dust-blows-into- houston-more-on-the-way/823923/
anyway we have some Sahara Desert hit the northeast
Quoting 225. StormTrackerScott:

Brian LaMarre ‏@blamarre 11h11 hours ago

@EricBlake12 Only two F4 #tornadoes occurred in Florida - both in Tampa Bay Area - April 1958 and April 1966 - both strong #ElNino years.

doom!!
Quoting 169. sar2401:

I hope you have a nice, cool(er) night, Barb. Our native trees are also starting to shed their leaves due to our drought and heat wave. With every breeze, the leaves flutter down like snowstorm. We got some outflow winds from storms to the west of us on Thursday and it looked like a blizzard, with the yard covered an inch deep in leaves. Not a good thing to see in August. I think we're all getting sick of this hot weather.

Amazing the difference a few miles makes. It's raining here now, and soil moisture is good. We've had periodic thundershowers over the summer in central Alabama and the trees are fully leafed. I hope you get a bit of this front before it blows past entirely.
Quoting 229. hurricanes2018:




very sad my friend :((
I need you guys help, I live in south alabama I need an answer, will the thunderstorm complex that is in central/north Alabama make it down here?
Lol. Can't wait for the retort.
234. txjac
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
937 PM CDT Monday Aug 10 2015

Discussion...

Well it was very hot today. Huntsville recored 105 for the maximum
temperature today and even saw 102 degrees down in Angleton. Expect
similar temperatures tomorrow. Temperatures still in the 90s across far inland
areas at 9 PM this evening.

Only change being made this evening is to increase cloud cover due to a
significant amount of cirrus moving across portions of the area.
Still expect slight chance/chance probability of precipitation tomorrow...a few storms could be
strong/severe by early evening with strong wind gusts a possibility.

Woo-hoo! cloud cover ...possibility of rain? Yippee!
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

WEATHER
African dust blows into Houston, more on the way



By Travis Herzog
Thursday, July 02, 2015
HOUSTON (KTRK) --
Have you noticed the hazy gray sky over Houston today? Another dust cloud from Africa is here, traveling 5,000 miles across the Atlantic basin to Texas, and even more are on the way.

Global weather patterns are being shifted in unusual ways due to a strengthening El Nino, or warming of the waters, in the central Pacific Ocean. One side of effect is that unusually strong winds called "easterlies" are blowing from Africa straight toward the Caribbean and then turning north toward Texas, sending a larger than normal number of Sahara Desert dust clouds our way.

What does this mean for us?

For starters, we're seeing a lot more haze in the sky. This is due to the fine dust particles that are most heavily concentrated about 10,000 feet off the ground. Some of those fine dust particles are falling down to the ground, reducing our air quality and possibly aggravating the lungs of those with conditions such as asthma and emphysema.

On a positive note, these dust clouds are typically associated with high wind shear and dry air, reducing the odds of tropical development. Studies have also shown that these dust clouds can deposit minerals in the soil that are beneficial to plants.

Watch the video above as Meteorologist Travis Herzog shows NASA's computer model forecast for the arrival of more African dust this holiday weekend.
http://abc13.com/weather/african-dust-blows-into- houston-more-on-the-way/823923/


Scott, did you spend the last several hours looking for that?
Quoting 225. StormTrackerScott:

Brian LaMarre ‏@blamarre 11h11 hours ago

@EricBlake12 Only two F4 #tornadoes occurred in Florida - both in Tampa Bay Area - April 1958 and April 1966 - both strong #ElNino years.



Brian LaMarre is the meteorologist in charge at the NWS in Ruskin. He's a great guy in addition into being a great meteorologist and I would love to work there under him. I was doing a student unpaid shift this Saturday for the 12Z morning balloon launch and we had some great conversations about torrential rain events in the area and preparing for the upcoming El Nino season.
Quoting 236. Jedkins01:



Brian LaMarre is the meteorologist in charge at the NWS in Ruskin. He's a great guy in addition into being a great meteorologist and I would love to work there under him. I was doing a student unpaid shift this Saturday for the 12Z morning balloon launch and we had some great conversations about torrential rain events in the area and preparing for the upcoming El Nino season.


Okay. Now tell us what he said.

Please?
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:

WEATHER
African dust blows into Houston, more on the way



By Travis Herzog
Thursday, July 02, 2015
HOUSTON (KTRK) --
Have you noticed the hazy gray sky over Houston today? Another dust cloud from Africa is here, traveling 5,000 miles across the Atlantic basin to Texas, and even more are on the way.

Global weather patterns are being shifted in unusual ways due to a strengthening El Nino, or warming of the waters, in the central Pacific Ocean. One side of effect is that unusually strong winds called "easterlies" are blowing from Africa straight toward the Caribbean and then turning north toward Texas, sending a larger than normal number of Sahara Desert dust clouds our way.

What does this mean for us?

For starters, we're seeing a lot more haze in the sky. This is due to the fine dust particles that are most heavily concentrated about 10,000 feet off the ground. Some of those fine dust particles are falling down to the ground, reducing our air quality and possibly aggravating the lungs of those with conditions such as asthma and emphysema.

On a positive note, these dust clouds are typically associated with high wind shear and dry air, reducing the odds of tropical development. Studies have also shown that these dust clouds can deposit minerals in the soil that are beneficial to plants.

Watch the video above as Meteorologist Travis Herzog shows NASA's computer model forecast for the arrival of more African dust this holiday weekend.
http://abc13.com/weather/african-dust-blows-into- houston-more-on-the-way/823923/


Yes Scott, the pattern favors dust heading that way more often due to strong Easterlies, still waiting for your evidence that increased or stronger outbreaks of SAL from Western Africa are directly caused by El Nino . Feel free to post ONE paper that makes that connection. For such a simple teleconnection as you are claiming, you shouldn't have a tough time...
That's the retort I was expecting.
Quoting 235. Astrometeor:



Scott, did you spend the last several hours looking for that?


I spent a few minutes and found:

"The outbreak frequency shows a well-defined seasonal peak in the months of July to September, during which
time the occurrence of Saharan dust events (SDEs) is approximately 28±6%. We find considerable year-to-year variability in the summertime SDEs frequency, observing a steady reduction between 1984 and 1997, followed by a period of relative mean stability from 1999 to 2012. We investigated changes in the atmospheric extinction of the SDEs as an indicator of strength of the episodes and found that this parameter approximately follows the SDE frequency, however, instrumental limitations prevented us from deriving precise conclusions regarding their long-term changes. A lagged correlation analysis between SDE properties and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Sahel rainfall index (SRI) was performed. We found that 55±4% of the year-to-year variations in July–September SDE frequency may be reproduced by a lagged relationship to the NAO conditions during the preceding October–December period, and 45±4% may be reproduced by a negative correlation to the SRI during the preceding February–April period. Based on these relationships it may be possible to obtain an approximate indication of the strength of the upcoming summertime dust season over the North Atlantic around half a year in advance." Link

Again, showing frequency and strength of SAL outbreaks are correlated by NAO, and SRI of the preceding years and not by ENSO. :)
When BP oil spill happened 24 hour coverage on here for days the government destroys a whole river system in Colorado and not a word.Selective disaster coverage!I Guess it does matter who does the destroying.Boy how this site loves disasters.Thought this was biggest one yet.No agendas here.Had to vent everyone have great rest of the day or night.
Quoting 192. BahaHurican:

You guys have really been in the dry spot over there in the NE Caribbean... not even a Twave to give a few showers... :o/...


Not very surprising for an EL NINO year. 2009 was very dry too, but yes not as dry as 2015 :/
245. vis0
Is this leading to an AtmosRiver up north
or is is prognosticated to break apart.


Quoting 243. help4u:

When BP oil spill happened 24 hour coverage on here for days the government destroys a whole river system in Colorado and not a word.Selective disaster coverage!I Guess it does matter who does the destroying.Boy how this site loves disasters.Thought this was biggest one yet.No agendas here.Had to vent everyone have great rest of the day or night.


Destroyed a whole river system? Unlikely for a 3 million gallon spill. The EPA messed up, but it is important to remember they are cleaning up about 400 abandoned mines filled with toxic sludge that is slowly leaking into rivers and streams. To compare it to the BP spill is both wrong on size, (BP spilled about 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf), and the BP spill wasn't caused by a mistake made when trying to clean up environmental damage left when a well was abandoned. You are comparing apples to oranges, but don't let facts get in the way.
Quoting 232. TCweatherman:

I need you guys help, I live in south alabama I need an answer, will the thunderstorm complex that is in central/north Alabama make it down here?
The probability is extremely low.
You know, I'm actually beginning to believe we could compare to some of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record this year.

if it remains the status-quo all the way through this season, 2016 better be good.

Don't really have much else to say, this is pretty painful.
Quoting 230. Alagirl:


Amazing the difference a few miles makes. It's raining here now, and soil moisture is good. We've had periodic thundershowers over the summer in central Alabama and the trees are fully leafed. I hope you get a bit of this front before it blows past entirely.
Yes, central and north Alabama above Montgomery have had much more consistent rain than I've had. Part of the reason is exactly what we're seeing tonight. A strong MCV will enter the state from TN during daylight and intensify as it moves south. After dark, it gets to near Birmingham, still with strong storms. The entire thing heades SE but in line with I-85 and Columbus GA. By the time it finally sags south, the line has weakened, as it's past midnight, and that atmosphere has started to stabilize. By the time it gets to me, it has either disappeared completely or I see a few clouds. This has happened too many times to count this year, and it appears it will happen again tonight.
Is there a weather map that shows all the important features? Meaning the upper and lower atmosphere.
Quoting 247. Naga5000:


What ever floats your babyruth.
Quoting 251. centex:

Is there a weather map that shows all the important features? Meaning the upper and lower atmosphere.
additional thought, the best imagery for this is WV.
Quoting 250. sar2401:

Yes, central and north Alabama above Montgomery have had much more consistent rain than I've had. Part of the reason is exactly what we're seeing tonight. A strong MCV will enter the state from TN during daylight and intensify as it moves south. After dark, it gets to near Birmingham, still with strong storms. The entire thing heades SE but in line with I-85 and Columbus GA. By the time it finally sags south, the line has weakened, as it's past midnight, and that atmosphere has started to stabilize. By the time it gets to me, it has either disappeared completely or I see a few clouds. This has happened too many times to count this year, and it appears it will happen again tonight.


Disappointed here. TWC had us in the "severe" box, NWS had a 60% chance of t-storms, and we got nothing. Didn't start to see anything even try until late afternoon when the clouds began building on the plateau, which they typically do.
Quoting 247. Naga5000:



Destroyed a whole river system? Unlikely for a 3 million gallon spill. The EPA messed up, but it is important to remember they are cleaning up about 400 abandoned mines filled with toxic sludge that is slowly leaking into rivers and streams. To compare it to the BP spill is both wrong on size, (BP spilled about 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf), and the BP spill wasn't caused by a mistake made when trying to clean up environmental damage left when a well was abandoned. You are comparing apples to oranges, but don't let facts get in the way.


Darn, I didn't get to flag that post. Actually sad for once. The blog is so quiet and somehow a post got removed that fast? I must be old or something.

-------

Tomorrow is supposed to be warm and probably dry, then the front comes in and gives us much needed cooler weather.
Quoting 247. Naga5000:



Destroyed a whole river system? Unlikely for a 3 million gallon spill. The EPA messed up, but it is important to remember they are cleaning up about 400 abandoned mines filled with toxic sludge that is slowly leaking into rivers and streams. To compare it to the BP spill is both wrong on size, (BP spilled about 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf), and the BP spill wasn't caused by a mistake made when trying to clean up environmental damage left when a well was abandoned. You are comparing apples to oranges, but don't let facts get in the way.
The Gold King mine has been leaking toxic chemicals into the Animas River for decades. The people of Silverton have fought for years not have the mine site named a Superfund site because it would hurt tourism. Sunnyside Mining, which closed the Gold King complex in 1991, has been cooperating with the EPA to stabilize the mine, but the amount of money available is a lot less than if it was a Superfund site. The EPA was supervising a crew of contractors who were attempting to install a drainage pipe in one of the collapsed tunnels. The tunnel had contaminated water that was leaking, and the pipe was going to slowly drain the tunnel into a leach pond. Unfortunately, there was no way to know exactly how much water was behind the unstable rock and dirt wall caused by the collapsed tunnel entrance. When the pipe was pushed through, it caused a sudden release of pressure from the tunnel that was filled to the ceiling with this contaminated water. The water flowed out under a tremendous head when the pressure was relieved. There's no way, in the short term, to control a release like that.

What the EPA has done badly is warn and communicate with the public. They didn't notify any state or local agency for over 24 hours after the spill. They have also consistently minimized the amount of the spill, finally admitting it wasn't a million gallons but more like three million gallons. I don't fault the EPA for the spill. They were trying to control the leakage. They made it worse in the short term, but that tunnel face was eventually going to collapse and allow the same spill without some attempt at a bypass. I do fault the EPA for typical government response disorganization and trying to minimize what can't be minimized.
Quoting 254. Astrometeor:



Disappointed here. TWC had us in the "severe" box, NWS had a 60% chance of t-storms, and we got nothing. Didn't start to see anything even try until late afternoon when the clouds began building on the plateau, which they typically do.
Well, we'll see if any of the storms break the pattern and hold together long enough to give me rain. They are about 50 miles north of me now, but that's usually not any better than if they are 500 miles north of me. It's still 84 with a dewpoint of 76. You'd think I'd have to get something from that kind of atmosphere at close to midnight.
Models for the twin fives in the WPAC are worrisome. South enough and conditionally, this could be very bad for the Philippines. If the Eastern two of the twins reaches Cat 5 that soon, we could see a repeat of the beast of all beasts. Haiyan. All the elements are there. Looking at current presentation of convection and likely path and conditions, this may well be the story of next week.
Quoting 245. vis0:

Is this leading to an AtmosRiver up north
or is is prognosticated to break apart.



Wrong time of year for that...at least in a normal year. :-)
Last typhoon peaked high, but this extreme El-Nino should produce stronger before the season is out. Why I'm worried. Haiyan, with AGW, won't hold the peak record for long I'd imagine. Hard to imagine a higher peak intensity than Haiyan. We'll see it this year or within the next five years likely. Luckily, a surge greater than Haiyan, we may not see in the next fifty. How Haiyan came into Tacloban and surrounding areas was just the perfect storm surge. Jeff's coverage and commentary on it was spectacularly amazing and terrifying at the same time.


Meanwhile, the Atlantic still can't produce a 65kt system.
Holy jet streak across central FL

Strong?

Quoting 214. Jedkins01:



Well considering water temp anomalies are already well above the threshold needed to be considered an El Nino is a good start. However, I'm not really a fan of calling it a "super" El Nino by any means. Unless it clearly easily ends up surpassing the 1997 event, I don't think "super" El Nino would be good terminology. We need to be careful not to hype things in meteorology. I realize some of us are just enthusiasts and never plan on being scientists, but as fellow people all interested in the science, whether it be pro, student, or just enthusiast. We should all strive to not hype, even though are natural inclination is to hype what we love! lol
This will do it for sure

Quoting 243. help4u:

When BP oil spill happened 24 hour coverage on here for days the government destroys a whole river system in Colorado and not a word.Selective disaster coverage!I Guess it does matter who does the destroying.Boy how this site loves disasters.Thought this was biggest one yet.No agendas here.Had to vent everyone have great rest of the day or night.

I was going to give a big answer but Sar2401 covered most of what I had to say. I'd just like to add the the BP gulf spill was several orders of magnitude larger a disaster than the Animas River spill.
Quoting 195. Xyrus2000:


It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Super El Nino!
Concerned Citizen: "Oh Super El Nino! We have a tropical wave that's heading right for us!"
Super El Nino: "HA! This tropical wave doesn't stand a chance against the might of SUPER EL NINO!"
Concerned Citizen: "Wait, what are you....?"

*WHOOSH*
[snip]

Lol, Xyrus. Very good! Gave me a good laugh this morning. Now - would you please continue the sequel with some comic drawings like this? Guess this could be a very innovative way to bring complicated weather and climate news to a lot of folks :-)))
Pope sets up yearly Catholic Church day of care for environment
Source: Reuters - Mon, 10 Aug 2015 11:57 GMT
VATICAN CITY, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Pope Francis, riding a wave of mostly positive reaction to his encyclical on ecology, on Monday set up a Catholic "World Day of Prayer for the Care of Creation" to draw attention to the plight of the planet.
The day, to be marked by the world's 1.2 billion Roman Catholics each year on Sept. 1, is Francis's latest move to try to highlight global environmental concerns ahead of a pivotal U.N. summit on climate change in Paris in December.
"As Christians we wish to contribute to resolving the ecological crisis which humanity is presently experiencing," Francis said in a letter to two Vatican cardinals whose departments are involved in issues of justice, peace and Christian unity.
Sept. 1 is also when Orthodox Christians mark their day for the protection of the environment, giving the gesture added symbolism in relations between the Eastern and Western branches of Christianity. ...


BTW Italy: the cut-off low, now north of Sicily, still is happily swirling around, creating a lot of thunderstorms for adjacent regions. Currently it's not predicted to become a warm-cored system though, as far as I can see. But this may change again.


Source.


Very heavy lightning comes along with that Mediterranean low. (Saved pic)

Have a good morning everyone! After a cooler night (with flooding at certain spots in northern Germany due to some stationary storms) temps should soar to 35C/95F once again at my place Mainz today, sigh. Hope we will get a nice storm too this afternoon.
Modulation of Saharan dust export by the North African dipole
S. Rodríguez1, E. Cuevas1, J. M. Prospero2, A. Alastuey3, X. Querol3, J. López-Solano1, M. I. García1,4, and S. Alonso-Pérez1,3,5
1Izaña Atmospheric Research Centre, AEMET, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
2Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
3Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
4Department of Chemistry (T.U. Analytical Chemistry), Faculty of Science, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain
5European University of the Canaries, Laureate International Universities, La Orotava, Tenerife, Spain

Received: 16 Sep 2014 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 24 Oct 2014
Revised: 24 Apr 2015 – Accepted: 23 Jun 2015 – Published: 10 Jul 2015
Abstract. We have studied the relationship between the long-term interannual variability in large-scale meteorology in western North Africa – the largest and most active dust source worldwide – and Saharan dust export in summer, when enhanced dust mobilization in the hyper-arid Sahara results in maximum dust impacts throughout the North Atlantic. We address this issue by analyzing 28 years (1987–2014) of summer averaged dust concentrations at the high-altitude Izaña observatory (~ 2400 m a.s.l.) on Tenerife, and satellite and meteorological reanalysis data. The summer meteorological scenario in North Africa (aloft 850 hPa) is characterized by a high over the the subtropical Sahara and a low over the tropics linked to the monsoon. We measured the variability of this high–low dipole-like pattern in terms of the North African dipole intensity (NAFDI): the difference of geopotential height anomalies averaged over the subtropics (30–32° N, Morocco) and the tropics (10–13° N, Bamako region) close to the Atlantic coast (at 5–8° W). We focused on the 700 hPa standard level due to dust export off the coast of North Africa tending to occur between 1 and 5 km a.s.l. Variability in the NAFDI is associated with displacements of the North African anticyclone over the Sahara and this has implications for wind and dust export. The correlations we found between the 1987–2014 summer mean of NAFDI with dust at Izaña, satellite dust observations and meteorological re-analysis data indicate that increases in the NAFDI (i) result in higher wind speeds at the north of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone that are associated with enhanced dust export over the subtropical North Atlantic, (ii) influence the long-term variability of the size distribution of exported dust particles (increasing the load of coarse dust) and (iii) are associated with enhanced rains in the tropical and northern shifts of the tropical rain band that may affect the southern Sahel. Interannual variability in NAFDI is also connected to spatial distribution of dust over the North Atlantic; high NAFDI summers are associated with major dust export (linked to winds) in the subtropics and minor dust loads in the tropics (linked to higher rainfall), and vice versa. The evolution of the summer NAFDI values since 1950 to the present day shows connections to climatic variability (through the Sahelian drought, ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and winds) that have implications for dust export paths. Efforts to anticipate how dust export may evolve in future decades will require a better understanding of how the large-scale meteorological systems represented by the NAFD will evolve.

Citation: Rodríguez, S., Cuevas, E., Prospero, J. M., Alastuey, A., Querol, X., López-Solano, J., García, M. I., and Alonso-Pérez, S.: Modulation of Saharan dust export by the North African dipole, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7471-7486, doi:10.5194/acp-15-7471-2015, 2015
What has been happening this Summer whether Naga wants to admit it or not is the High Pressure Patterns across the Atlantic have caused a increase in the AEJ (Known as African Easterly Jet) but further south than normal. Reason for this is a direct result of pressures being extremely high vrs the extremely low pressures across the Pacific. In turn the increase in the AEJ further south has caused increased SAL plumes off Africa in turn lowering SST's across the MDR due to a thick milky film across the sky causing solar insulation.

What is interesting the is the AEJ has been further South than usual which has resulted in Drought across the Sahel. Look at the relationship to the last Super Nino below.

Hawaii.needs.rain
During Active Hurricane Seasons the AEJ and ITCZ were further north hence the more active seasons of years passed. Climate Change may be planning a role to so findings are mixed on El-Nino/Climate change.
274. vis0

Quoting 241. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's abridged selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Visit my blog for today's complete list in comment #1254.



Charting the slow death of the universe: the energy produced in a section of the Universe today is only about half what it was two billion years ago and find that this fading is occurring across all wavelengths from the ultraviolet to the far infrared.



Scientists pioneer method to track water flowing through glaciers: Essential step to understanding future of the world's largest glaciers as climate changes

Severe droughts could lead to widespread losses of butterflies by 2050

Astronomers discover new planet orbiting two stars: First circumbinary planet in habitable zone

New tadpole disease affecting frogs across globe, scientists find
As to the butterfly (or due to aGW margerinefly) newslink above, this VID to remind future humans what butterflies where (extra unwanted comment as to how i get so close to insects/animals...remember the close to squirrel VIDs or seagulls eating real buttered crackers from my extended hands...no... darn!. Remember camera is using a custom (i)  made 30/16mm lens.   i'm almost between the butterflies antennas...okay 3 inches away when at the closest to butterfly shot.
again more of my crazy ml-d explanation at VIDs utube description, VID is not public ::

http://youtu.be/kQouF9aGHtY(1300x812, 608x380below)



i think we now who yoboi is???

Watch near the end of this VID, right after a George Clooney look-a-like waves at camera, another guy swats at butterfly...yoboi? ; - P

only for sar2401:: still have not received my socsec card to start the ball rolling as to Library uploads plus the building i live in was to get another cable company - that's on hold cable companies suing each other over building installation right...BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER
18th..wpac..siamese.twins
starting to rain here in new haven,conn rigght now
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development of
this system is unlikely due to increasingly unfavorable upper-level
winds while it moves westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions should
support gradual development of this system by the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
Quoting 249. opal92nwf:

You know, I'm actually beginning to believe we could compare to some of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record this year.

if it remains the status-quo all the way through this season, 2016 better be good.

Don't really have much else to say, this is pretty painful.

I find it enjoyable to not have to worry about tropical cyclones threatening anyone in the Atlantic. Still have a long way to go. I will be very surprised if we don't see a tropical cyclone in September. I just want to get out of the peak of hurricane season 8/15-10/15 with no landfalls.
El Niño Drought Forces Panama Canal to Restrict Ship Size
WSJ, By Erica E. Phillipsm, Aug. 10, 2015 5:57 p.m. ET
Panama Canal officials will restrict the size of ships that can pass through the waterway for the first time since 1998 as a drought brought about by El Niño causes water levels to fall. ...

Drought causes $100 million in crop losses in El Salvador
PhysOrg, August 10, 2015
A drought cost nearly $100 million in lost corn and bean harvests in El Salvador in June and July, the government said Monday in announcing a plan to distribute seeds to hard-hit farmers. ...

California's Severe Drought Dries Up San Jose's Guadalupe River
NBC News, August 10
Water officials said the river that runs through downtown San Jose has now recorded its lowest water levels in history. Dozens of fish were stranded when the water stopped flowing and their carcasses now cover the river bed. ...
Quoting 282. sporteguy03:


I find it enjoyable to not have to worry about tropical cyclones threatening anyone in the Atlantic. Still have a long way to go. I will be very surprised if we don't see a tropical cyclone in September. I just want to get out of the peak of hurricane season 8/15-10/15 with no landfalls.


Cue The Chart :

NWS in Melbourne, says we are in for some heavy rains here on the coast starting Thursday into next week!
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:

Modulation of Saharan dust export by the North African dipole
S. Rodr%uFFFDguez1, E. Cuevas1, J. M. Prospero2, A. Alastuey3, X. Querol3, J. L%uFFFDpez-Solano1, M. I. Garc%uFFFDa1,4, and S. Alonso-P%uFFFDrez1,3,5
1Iza%uFFFDa Atmospheric Research Centre, AEMET, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
2Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
3Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
4Department of Chemistry (T.U. Analytical Chemistry), Faculty of Science, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain
5European University of the Canaries, Laureate International Universities, La Orotava, Tenerife, Spain

Received: 16 Sep 2014 %u2013 Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 24 Oct 2014
Revised: 24 Apr 2015 %u2013 Accepted: 23 Jun 2015 %u2013 Published: 10 Jul 2015
Abstract. We have studied the relationship between the long-term interannual variability in large-scale meteorology in western North Africa %u2013 the largest and most active dust source worldwide %u2013 and Saharan dust export in summer, when enhanced dust mobilization in the hyper-arid Sahara results in maximum dust impacts throughout the North Atlantic. We address this issue by analyzing 28 years (1987%u20132014) of summer averaged dust concentrations at the high-altitude Iza%uFFFDa observatory (~ 2400 m a.s.l.) on Tenerife, and satellite and meteorological reanalysis data. The summer meteorological scenario in North Africa (aloft 850 hPa) is characterized by a high over the the subtropical Sahara and a low over the tropics linked to the monsoon. We measured the variability of this high%u2013low dipole-like pattern in terms of the North African dipole intensity (NAFDI): the difference of geopotential height anomalies averaged over the subtropics (30%u201332%uFFFD N, Morocco) and the tropics (10%u201313%uFFFD N, Bamako region) close to the Atlantic coast (at 5%u20138%uFFFD W). We focused on the 700 hPa standard level due to dust export off the coast of North Africa tending to occur between 1 and 5 km a.s.l. Variability in the NAFDI is associated with displacements of the North African anticyclone over the Sahara and this has implications for wind and dust export. The correlations we found between the 1987%u20132014 summer mean of NAFDI with dust at Iza%uFFFDa, satellite dust observations and meteorological re-analysis data indicate that increases in the NAFDI (i) result in higher wind speeds at the north of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone that are associated with enhanced dust export over the subtropical North Atlantic, (ii) influence the long-term variability of the size distribution of exported dust particles (increasing the load of coarse dust) and (iii) are associated with enhanced rains in the tropical and northern shifts of the tropical rain band that may affect the southern Sahel. Interannual variability in NAFDI is also connected to spatial distribution of dust over the North Atlantic; high NAFDI summers are associated with major dust export (linked to winds) in the subtropics and minor dust loads in the tropics (linked to higher rainfall), and vice versa. The evolution of the summer NAFDI values since 1950 to the present day shows connections to climatic variability (through the Sahelian drought, ENSO (El Ni%uFFFDo%u2013Southern Oscillation) and winds) that have implications for dust export paths. Efforts to anticipate how dust export may evolve in future decades will require a better understanding of how the large-scale meteorological systems represented by the NAFD will evolve.

Citation: Rodr%uFFFDguez, S., Cuevas, E., Prospero, J. M., Alastuey, A., Querol, X., L%uFFFDpez-Solano, J., Garc%uFFFDa, M. I., and Alonso-P%uFFFDrez, S.: Modulation of Saharan dust export by the North African dipole, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7471-7486, doi:10.5194/acp-15-7471-2015, 2015


Again, Scott, the bolded part of this paper discusses paths of transport for dust and their correlation with ENSO, not increased or stronger dust outbreaks. I'm really starting to think you don't understand the difference. Beyond that, a stated connection to ENSO for dust transport is well understood, however outbreak frequency and strength is still correlated to NAO and SRI through previous years and not ENSO of current years.

Edit: You clearly did not read this paper, for shame:

"CONECTION WITH GLOBAL PROCESSES
Results suggest that the observed variability in the North African Dipole intensity is connected with global processes. Years with low dust concentrations at Izana tend to occur during intensive El Nino %u2013 ENSO periods (1987, 1997 y 2009; Fig. 2A). In contrast, high dust years tend to be associated with intense La Nina periods (1988, 1998, 1999, 2008 y 2010; Fig. 2A). These results suggest that El Nino and the NAFDI variability is influenced by global variability in the climate of tropical and subtropical regions, by influencing the intensity of the trade winds belt." Again, this deals with location of dust outbreaks between 15-30N, seems to be counter to your claim.
Been lurking. Is it reasonable to say the Atlantic season is over? The Atlantic looks VERY un friendly now. The MDR looks almost dry. Possibly something local home grown in the gulf latter in the season?
288. vis0
Quoting 259. sar2401:

Wrong time of year for that...at least in a normal year. :-)
image host

(URL title)...but i could be 99.9% wrong.
Quoting 286. Naga5000:



Again, Scott, the bolded part of this paper discusses paths of transport for dust and their correlation with ENSO, not increased or stronger dust outbreaks. I'm really starting to think you don't understand the difference. Beyond that, a stated connection to ENSO for dust transport is well understood, however outbreak frequency and strength is still correlated to NAO and SRI through previous years and not ENSO of current years.

Edit: You clearly did not read this paper, for shame:

"CONECTION WITH GLOBAL PROCESSES
Results suggest that the observed variability in the North African Dipole intensity is connected with global processes. Years with low dust concentrations at Izana tend to occur during intensive El Nino %u2013 ENSO periods (1987, 1997 y 2009; Fig. 2A). In contrast, high dust years tend to be associated with intense La Nina periods (1988, 1998, 1999, 2008 y 2010; Fig. 2A). These results suggest that El Nino and the NAFDI variability is influenced by global variability in the climate of tropical and subtropical regions, by influencing the intensity of the trade winds belt." Again, this deals with location of dust outbreaks between 15-30N, seems to be counter to your claim.


This year the Ridge has been so strong across the Atlantic Basin that it actually has pushed the AEJ further South causing drought across the Sahel region. Another aspect of this ridge with corresponding low pressure across the Eastern Pacific has lead to more frequent outbreaks of Sal off Africa due to ENE winds off Africa @ stronger levels than normal
Very wet pattern about to get underway across FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2015


.DISCUSSION...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
..

TODAY-TONIGHT...
REMNANT TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL BNDRY HAS DRIFTED
BACK INTO CENTRAL FL JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS HAS RETURNING AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE REGION...THOUGH
THE POSITION OF THE TROF IS KEEPING IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. EVNG
RAOBS SHOW PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.5"-1.7" OVER CNTRL/N FL...INCREASING
TO 2.2" OVER S FL. RAP ANALYSIS BACKING THIS UP WITH H100-H70 MEAN
RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT S OF THE TROF AXIS...BUT STILL LINGERING
BTWN 60-70PCT N OF THE AXIS. SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH H85-H50 MEAN RH BTWN 40-50PCT.

WARM MID LVLS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 9-10C...H50 TEMPS
BTWN -5/-6C...YIELDING LAPSE RATES ARND 5.5C/KM THRU THE LYR.
DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...THE POSITION OF THE TROF HAS ALLOWED A LCL
MID LVL VORT MAX TO DVLP N OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ADVECT THIS ENERGY ONSHORE IN ANY LARGE SCALE
MANNER. UPR LVLS ARE NEUTRAL AT BEST DUE TO A DEPARTING 40-50KT
NERLY JET STREAK OVER THE GOMEX.

DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE DRY AIR ALOFT SLOWLY
MODIFIES. PGRAD THRU THE H100-H50 LYR WILL BE QUITE WEAK WITH MEAN
W/SWRLY FLOW BLO 10KTS. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DVLP BY
MIDDAY...LCL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING FORMATION BTWN 16Z- 17Z AND
PUSHING INLAND TO BTWN THE KISSIMMEE/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASINS ARND
21Z. WEAK DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
STRENGTH... THOUGH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR LCL HEAVY PRECIP.

SCT POPS AREAWIDE...INCREASING FROM 30PCT ALNG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR TO 50PCT ARND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE. LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT INDICATES CONVECTION SHOULD BURN
OUT WITHIN AN HR OF SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAX
TEMPS IN THE L/M90S... THOUGH A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
MAY HOLD IN THE U80S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE
PASSAGE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S SUGGEST SIMILAR MIN TEMPS.

WED-THU...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD TO THE
NRN GULF COAST WL NUDGE SWD INTO N FL IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH.
INCRSG RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR AS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CONUS
AND AN ASCD DIGGING UPR WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LOOKS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SFC TROUGH N OF AREA
WL COMBINE WITH INCRSG MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE STEERING PATTERN TO
RAISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHCS ESP OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.

LATE WEEK...THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WI LINGER OVER N FL INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE
NMRS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
GFS TRIES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL FALLING HGHTS ALOFT WITH WEAK CUTOFF
LOW POSSIBLE OVER THE SE...WHEREAS THE LTST ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN
WAVE CONFIGURATION. AT ANY RATE...A SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CAN BE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONSET OF THE
EXPECTED HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
Quoting 282. sporteguy03:


I find it enjoyable to not have to worry about tropical cyclones threatening anyone in the Atlantic. Still have a long way to go. I will be very surprised if we don't see a tropical cyclone in September. I just want to get out of the peak of hurricane season 8/15-10/15 with no landfalls.



good luck with that # we will be lucky if we hit 5 at this point the hole Atlantic is just shut down out there right now has it is vary unfavorable we may have stan a ch when we where back in june and EL nino was still weak and just getting going but EL Nino has gone crazy this past few weeks and now we are at strong EL nino and about to go vary strong

all so you can say no land fall has we all ready had TS bill made land fall in TX and the A storm made land fall in N C so we all ready had some land falls this season


things has just got in vary unfavorable and it will stay like that for the rest of the season
Quoting 284. farupnorth:



Cue The Chart :





here is where that chart be longs this season

This wet pattern across FL is likely to last well into next week and beyond. After a dry week here in Orlando it appears the rain machine is going to be running full steam ahead the rest of the month.

Quoting 292. Tazmanian:




here is where that chart be longs this season




The year we can throw out the chart as Strongest El-Nino on record builds in. Bye Bye Hurricane Season see u in 2016 with some robust activity as the AEJ lifts further north giving us a real chance @ Cape Verde Hurricanes.
Quoting 289. StormTrackerScott:



This year the Ridge has been so strong across the Atlantic Basin that it actually has pushed the AEJ further South causing drought across the Sahel region. Another aspect of this ridge with corresponding low pressure across the Eastern Pacific has lead to more frequent outbreaks of Sal off Africa due to ENE winds off Africa @ stronger levels than normal


Again, current year Sahel drought is not associated with SAL outbreaks for summer, "We found that 554% of the year-to-year variations in July%u2013September SDE frequency may be reproduced by a lagged relationship to the NAO conditions during the preceding October%u2013December period, and 454% may be reproduced by a negative correlation to the SRI during the preceding February%u2013April period." That's 100% of the variance right there. Now ENSO has an effect on SRI, but it is lagged by months.

Furthermore, you need to provide evidence to support the assertion that outbreaks have been more frequent this year due to the ridge, SAL outbreaks are directly related to the strength and pattern of the AEJ, that is well established. All your evidence only points to the path the SAL takes, not to how strong or frequent the outbreaks are.

Look, I really don't want to continue the argument further, but you keep pushing this idea of more frequent and stronger outbreaks that isn't supported by any research. The research supports the notion of a change in path. It is quite possible a change in path may look like a change in frequency or strength. For example, Houston getting more dust this year compared to normal.
Quoting 294. StormTrackerScott:



The year we can throw out the chart as Strongest El-Nino on record builds in. Bye Bye Hurricane Season see u in 2016 with some robust activity as the AEJ lifts further north giving us a real chance @ Cape Verde Hurricanes.



cant wait for the 2016 season i think will see a super LA Nino
Quoting 295. Naga5000:



Again, current year Sahel drought is not associated with SAL outbreaks for summer, "We found that 55�4% of the year-to-year variations in July%u2013September SDE frequency may be reproduced by a lagged relationship to the NAO conditions during the preceding October%u2013December period, and 45�4% may be reproduced by a negative correlation to the SRI during the preceding February%u2013April period." That's 100% of the variance right there. Now ENSO has an effect on SRI, but it is lagged by months.

Furthermore, you need to provide evidence to support the assertion that outbreaks have been more frequent this year due to the ridge, SAL outbreaks are directly related to the strength and pattern of the AEJ, that is well established. All your evidence only points to the path the SAL takes, not to how strong or frequent the outbreaks are.

Look, I really don't want to continue the argument further, but you keep pushing this idea of more frequent and stronger outbreaks that isn't supported by any research. The research supports the notion of a change in path. It is quite possible a change in path may look like a change in frequency or strength. For example, Houston getting more dust this year compared to normal.


This is from Doc himself and can make the assertion that the reason for these more frequent Sal outbreaks is because of the Stronger High across the Atlantic vrs the Stronger Low pressure over the Pacific. i am sure you learned in school that air moves toward low pressure and depending on the strength of high vrs low pressure determine the strength of low level winds. in this case its clearly a increase of NE winds off Africa they seem stronger this year.

This, despite the fact that wind shear has been a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the eastern portion of the MDR, and sea surface temperatures have been near average. The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed. El Niño is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean that were generating a very high 30 - 50 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean on Monday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible there. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear will be lower, at times, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming in mid-August, those would be the most likely locations. Keep in mind, though, that the last time we had an El Niño event this strong--back in 1997--no named storms formed in the Atlantic during August, and only one named storm (Hurricane Erika) formed in September. It would not be a surprise to see similar behavior in 2015. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC continued to predict quiet conditions in the Atlantic for at least five days.
Quoting 297. Tazmanian:




cant wait for the 2016 season i think will see a super LA Nino


Conditions look prime next year Taz. Exact opposite of 2015. Again how if you naga how do you explain this and still debate me on the relation. One can easily see the correlation I am making and how next year looks different than 2015. Less dry air means more activity across the Atlantic why no strong El-Nino in place to make the Atlantic Basin the Desert SW.

precip anomalies


Sea Surface anomalies


Much weaker high too meaning the easterlies won't be as strong as 2015 hence not as much Sal. There will be Sal outbreaks but not nearly as frequent as what we have seen this year.


274 (visO)

I have some butterfly-friendly flowers on my nearly one-acre property not far from Brooksville, and enjoy watching them for a couple of minutes while they indulge of the nectar.

There's been plenty of rain this summer, with those rather frequent troughs and embedded deep moisture pushing into the area from the north, with the W and SW flow off the Gulf. Looks like another one coming in within a couple of days.

The days of summertime E and SE wind flow patterns have become less pronounced over the past two or three years. Roy Leep, perhaps the best meteorologists I ever saw on television back in the good old days, would refer to that wind pattern as "The good easterlies."

To all posters, Have yourselves a butterfly day. And now, back to lurking...
Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:



Conditions look prime next year Taz. Exact opposite of 2015

precip anomalies


Sea Surface anomalies


Much weaker high too meaning the easterlies won't be as strong as 2015 hence not as much Sal. There will be Sal outbreaks but not nearly as frequent as what we have seen this year.






cant wait
Quoting 298. StormTrackerScott:



This is from Doc himself and can make the assertion that the reason for these more frequent Sal outbreaks is because of the Stronger High across the Atlantic vrs the Stronger Low pressure over the Pacific. i am sure you learned in school that air moves toward low pressure and depending on the strength of high vrs low pressure determine the strength of low level winds. in this case its clearly a increase of NE winds off Africa they seem stronger this year.

This, despite the fact that wind shear has been a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the eastern portion of the MDR, and sea surface temperatures have been near average. The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have brought even more dry air, making the atmosphere so stable that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have quickly decayed. El Niño is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean that were generating a very high 30 - 50 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean on Monday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible there. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear will be lower, at times, in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming in mid-August, those would be the most likely locations. Keep in mind, though, that the last time we had an El Niño event this strong--back in 1997--no named storms formed in the Atlantic during August, and only one named storm (Hurricane Erika) formed in September. It would not be a surprise to see similar behavior in 2015. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC continued to predict quiet conditions in the Atlantic for at least five days.



I'm sure you learned in school that the words "in addition" do not mean "caused by". You can claim this connection exists all you want, you haven't provided any research to support it. Again, just because you want it to be true doesn't mean it is, no matter how hard you try to spin and distort it. Strength and frequency of SAL outbreaks during summer are not caused by a current El Nino event, there is zero research to back the position that the two are directly related. End of story, Scott.
Quoting 302. Naga5000:



I'm sure you learned in school that the words "in addition" do not mean "caused by". You can claim this connection exists all you want, you haven't provided any research to support it. Again, just because you want it to be true doesn't mean it is, no matter how hard you try to spin and distort it. Strength and frequency of SAL outbreaks during summer are not caused by a current El Nino event, there is zero research to back the position that the two are directly related. End of story, Scott.


I sent Dr. Steve a message and this is his response to end the argument on both sides.

I have not seen anything definitive on a relationship of El Nio with the intensity/persistence of the SAL flow over the Atlantic. While it wouldn't be surprising to find some connection, the fact is there have been far more 'intense' SAL (with dense dust ) outbreaks in non Nio years compared to this year. What highlights the SAL this year is the extra 'push' it has given to the very hostile environment for cyclones across the ATL.

Steve
Naga, you were right. Time to move on.

If anyone wants to take a shower and cool down a little bit: Here some drops which were recorded yesterday in Teramo/Abruzzo - one of many Italian places which currently experience the impacts of this cut-off low at their doorsteps.


Lightning the last 24h in Italy. Source: blitzortung.org/SevereWeatherEurope
Quoting 304. StormTrackerScott:



You have no point period because the correlation is clear as day 2015 Dry dusty Atlantic Basin lowering MDR temps, High Shear, and increased trades. These increases of trades are what's pulling more Dry air off Africa why because of strong Atlantic High compared to years passed. Again you cannot discount the correlation as it is there and you refuse to see it.


There is no evidenced correlation, you have provided no data, no numbers, and no research. You can't claim correlation just because. Where are the numbers, Scott? Where is the data?

This is just more of the same nonsense where some guy thinks he knows more than the researchers. Increased trades do not pull more dry air off Africa, they influence where the dust heads, the paper you posted says exactly that. Dust outbreak frequency is controlled by the strength of the AEJ, and is correlated statistically with SRI and NAO of the previous year, not ENSO.
Quoting 303. Tazmanian:




will you two just stop all ready going back and forth you guys are acting like 2 years olds
Quoting 305. Bucsboltsfan:

Naga, you were right. Time to move on.


I'm sorry, but this constant arrogance of claiming to know more than the researchers is getting real tiresome.
How can the models really predict this? Not saying they can't just wondering.
Quoting 301. Tazmanian:




cant wait
Quoting 309. Naga5000:



I'm sorry, but this constant arrogance of claiming to know more than the researchers is getting real tiresome.


I am by no means anywhere close to an expert but it is very apparent to me what is being presented is that the increased trades influence where the dust flows, the guy in the article says that. Oh well, more rain heading for Tampa, could be another wet week starting on Thursday.
Quoting 309. Naga5000:



I'm sorry, but this constant arrogance of claiming to know more than the researchers is getting real tiresome.






Then it's time too end this. Then going back and forth.


Rule number 1 of the blog


Please do not carry on personal disputes on blogs or photos
Quoting 310. 19N81W:

How can the models really predict this? Not saying they can't just wondering.



Not sure



heavy rain in the northeast with t.storms to
Quoting 311. Bucsboltsfan:



I am by no means anywhere close to an expert but it is very apparent to me what is being presented is that the increased trades influence where the dust flows, the guy in the article says that. Oh well, more rain heading for Tampa, could be another wet week starting on Thursday.


Yeah the increased trades a result of El-Nino is causing Dust flow all the way across the Basin to even Texas. They may not be some of the strongest we've seen but they sure as heck have been more prevalent this year compared to years passed.
Quoting 310. 19N81W:

How can the models really predict this? Not saying they can't just wondering.

Usually an El Niño event is followed by an La Niña event, so with this cfs prediction, I would not be surprised.
heavy rain with lightning at my house in new haven,conn StormTrackerScott
Quoting 316. HurricaneAndre:

Usually an El Niño event is followed by an La Niña event, so with this cfs prediction, I would not be surprised.


Following the last Super Nino we had 1998 and that was a interesting Hurricane Season for the Caribbean & US.
Quoting 317. hurricanes2018:

heavy rain with lightning at my house in new haven,conn StormTrackerScott


Strong Cold front coming thru. That same front is expected to stall over FL tomorrow.
it's a shame to be busy when there is a topic i would like to discuss........earlier in yesterdays comments i was mentioned in a post stating that dr masters has stated that there is a correlation between enso and the african dust outbreak.....

here is the comment from our good doc....

The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

now yes, doc does mention both enso and saharan dust, but is he linking the two in direct relation with each other as cause and affect?

the key term used by doc is "in addition"...now i could google and post a definition of 'in addition" however i think this example explains it quite nicely.

"Joe was late to work, he overslept and in addition, traffic was bad."

the subject is Joe was late and the reasons he was late was oversleeping and traffic....so they are connected to the problem but they are not connected to each other. if they were every time Joe overslept traffic would be bad and conversely every time traffic was bad Joe would oversleep.

now there could be instances where the reasons could be connected as in Joe was late due to traffic and it caused his car to overheat, however in this scenario the use of "in addition" would not be the best choice of sentence structure.
Hilda, currently a Category 1 hurricane, is set to bring rain, wind and dangerous surf to Hawaii by the end of the week.
Most of the Hawaiian Islands escaped the worst of Guillermo's impacts last week. The islands will now have to be prepared for yet another tropical system that could have more significant impact.
"The expected track of Hilda will bring the threat of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Big Island as early as Thursday, local time, Strong winds aloft will cause Hilda to weaken slowly this week as it tracks to the west-northwest

DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SHEARING AT LEAST THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.
There were huge SAL outbreaks in 2005 and that was a neutral year..
speaking of el nino....we are now starting to see august model runs listed in the nmme.....and the anomalies are lowering.....here is what a poster presented yesterday...and below that is what the site is showing today.......i'm not sure how you explain such a dramatic shift...







Quoting 322. hurricanes2018:


DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SHEARING AT LEAST THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.


Doubt it makes it to Hawaii as a Tropical Storm. That is some strong shear and its stronger yet closer to the islands.
Quoting 324. ricderr:

speaking of el nino....we are now starting to see august model runs listed in the nmme.....and the anomalies are lowering.....here is what a poster presented yesterday...and below that is what the site is showing today.......i'm not sure how you explain such a dramatic shift...




These charts are meaningless at this point. There seem to be 3 to 4 different variants to each type of run, and nobody has been able to explain the differences between each and which one is most reliable. So, instead, they are used in a glorified peeing contest on this site to suit the needs of what someone wants to happen or who they want to try to make look bad.
Quoting 324. ricderr:

speaking of el nino....we are now starting to see august model runs listed in the nmme.....and the anomalies are lowering.....here is what a poster presented yesterday...and below that is what the site is showing today.......i'm not sure how you explain such a dramatic shift...




NMME mean has risen from 2.6C in July to 2.8C in August. LOL!

BTW It was another poster who posted it on here 20. nrtiwlnvragn
3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2015
8
Latest NMME

Quoting 326. tampabaymatt:



I don't know where that run Ric posted came from as this is what is on NOAA's site. Link below Matt

Link
Quoting 323. washingtonian115:

There were huge SAL outbreaks in 2005 and that was a neutral year..


Correct me if I'm wrong, there were also very little activity in the MDR between africa and the lesser antilles.
BTW It was another poster who posted it on here 20. nrtiwlnvragn
3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2015
8 +
Latest NMME


exactly scott...contrary to matt's opinion this was not posted as a pissing contest.....nor to denigrate another member......however to highlight the day to day shifts....
All-Time records being broken across Texas for days with no measurable rainfall. Incredible considering how wet May was across Texas.

Galveston no rain in over 30 days.
Quoting 320. ricderr:

it's a shame to be busy when there is a topic i would like to discuss........earlier in yesterdays comments i was mentioned in a post stating that dr masters has stated that there is a correlation between enso and the african dust outbreak.....

here is the comment from our good doc....

The credit for the quiet start to hurricane season goes to an atmospheric circulation that has brought high pressure and dry, sinking air to the tropical Atlantic--due in part to one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history that is underway in the Eastern Pacific. In addition, frequent outbreaks of dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

now yes, doc does mention both enso and saharan dust, but is he linking the two in direct relation with each other as cause and affect?

the key term used by doc is "in addition"...now i could google and post a definition of 'in addition" however i think this example explains it quite nicely.

"Joe was late to work, he overslept and in addition, traffic was bad."

the subject is Joe was late and the reasons he was late was oversleeping and traffic....so they are connected to the problem but they are not connected to each other. if they were every time Joe overslept traffic would be bad and conversely every time traffic was bad Joe would oversleep.

now there could be instances where the reasons could be connected as in Joe was late due to traffic and it caused his car to overheat, however in this scenario the use of "in addition" would not be the best choice of sentence structure.


SAL outbreaks occur independently of El Nino--I've not seen any research that links the two phenomena.

Jeff Masters


I don't know where that run Ric posted came from as this is what is on NOAA's site. Link below Matt

you can always check the url properties ...however here is the link to the NMME webpage..Link..click on nino 3.4 plumes
Quoting 330. ricderr:

BTW It was another poster who posted it on here 20. nrtiwlnvragn
3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2015
8 +
Latest NMME


exactly scott...contrary to matt's opinion this was not posted as a pissing contest.....nor to denigrate another member......however to highlight the day to day shifts....


What? You make no sense. The NMME posted is correct it went up 0.2C from July and that is fact. NMME forecast is for a peak of 2.8C compared to 2.6C in July. WOW
SAL outbreaks occur independently of El Nino--I've not seen any research that links the two phenomena.

Jeff Masters


doc...thank you for taking the time to answer something we've been debating for over a month......you rock!

well...you guys have fun....i'm gonna head to the virtual poker tables while i make more phone calls.....before this does become a pissing contest.....enjoy all....
Quoting 332. JeffMasters:


SAL outbreaks occur independently of El Nino--I've not seen any research that links the two phenomena.

Jeff Masters


Thank you - perhaps now we can obsess over something else! (flag on)
338. vis0
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/commen t.html?entrynum=3067&page=6#commenttop

Quoting 260. DeepSeaRising:

Last typhoon peaked high, but this extreme El-Nino should produce stronger before the season is out. Why I'm worried. Haiyan, with AGW, won't hold the peak record for long I'd imagine. Hard to imagine a higher peak intensity than Haiyan. We'll see it this year or within the next five years likely. Luckily, a surge greater than Haiyan, we may not see in the next fifty. How Haiyan came into Tacloban and surrounding areas was just the perfect storm surge. Jeff's coverage and commentary on it was spectacularly amazing and terrifying at the same time.
reply at my zilly** pg cmmnt#61

**(zilly is not i reference to that blogs content but that most thin i'm either nuts or just plain zilly, as to my smarts.  i now my theories are way out in left field on the outside side of the fence but seeing so many theories i had as a kid MANY years later become the ideas of Noble prize winning papers of well respected people lets me now this nut is not alone)61
When I get older, settling down,
Would you come down to the Sea?




Naga and Ric were correct. Thanks for settling and bringing reason - no hype.
Some of us can get obsessed with the bad and forgot that sometimes,it's jus a Beautiful Day.

Don't let it get away'



Quoting 293. StormTrackerScott:

This wet pattern across FL is likely to last well into next week and beyond. After a dry week here in Orlando it appears the rain machine is going to be running full steam ahead the rest of the month.



It seems maybe a little tropical mischief in Southwest Florida. If shear is low, all systems maybe a go. Sea Surface Temperatures here are the warmest in the Atlantic/Gulf Of Mexico. However, we all remember what happened the last several weeks when everybody and their Uncle computer models were initiating a Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern to northeastern Gulf. And what happened - NADA, Strong trough of Low pressure in the form of the Jetstream put its foot on the potential Low entities neck!!!! That being said Scott there seems to be a chance, albeit a slight chance of Tropical Mischief nonetheless.
Some of my college profesors are suggesting that the Sahara desert will expand due to the desiccation of the Sahel. The Sahara is a BWH climate tropical desert and the Sahel is a BSH- which is a subtropical steppe climate. So, climatology says that the Sahel is NOT as dry as the Sahara which receives less than 2" of rain annually. I write this because being a Hurricane fanatic and lover of tropical meteorology that I am, if this desiccation continues (erosion, overfarming, over irrigating crops etc) the SAL will dominate for the forseeable future if the Bermuda Azores High holds strong in the Eastern Atlantic like it has been for the last umpteenth years it seems. Someone needs to get a great big garden hose and spray that friggin region down with water!! (LMAO). Really geo-engineering is needed to intervene for us Tropical meteorology Fans at wunderground.com. Thank You for listening to a weather fanatic and I wish you all a Blessed day!!!!!
Quoting 343. WeatherConvoy:


It seems maybe a little tropical mischief in Southwest Florida. If shear is low, all systems maybe a go. Sea Surface Temperatures here are the warmest in the Atlantic/Gulf Of Mexico. However, we all remember what happened the last several weeks when everybody and their Uncle computer models were initiating a Tropical Cyclone in the Eastern to northeastern Gulf. And what happened - NADA, Strong trough of Low pressure in the form of the Jetstream put its foot on the potential Low entities neck!!!! That being said Scott there seems to be a chance, albeit a slight chance of Tropical Mischief nonetheless.


The setup seems similar to what we saw over the past couple of weeks. We didn't see tropical development but the results (rain) were the same. This lower pressure is a bit more south than the two from the previous event (that can easily change though). Rain for the West Coast, that seems to be a pretty good bet.
346. vis0
 oh wait this is El Nina you said La Nino
Quoting 297. Tazmanian:




cant wait for the 2016 season i think will see a super LA Nino
TADA!... oh wait ya said La Nino Not El Nina TADA...(hold mirror here)


on the serious note what do you think will happen with an La Nino? more wind, more rain, less rain same amount more ATL TS, clockwise TS? just wondering what a La Nino means to Taz.


Quoting 342. Patrap:

Some of us can get obsessed with the bad and forgot that sometimes,it's jus a Beautiful Day.

Don't let it get away'






U2, my all-time favorite band.
Quoting 330. ricderr:

BTW It was another poster who posted it on here 20. nrtiwlnvragn
3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2015
8 +
Latest NMME


exactly scott...contrary to matt's opinion this was not posted as a pissing contest.....nor to denigrate another member......however to highlight the day to day shifts....


You have done this time and time again. Scott will post a Nino SST forecast chart, and you'll post a different variant of it. I once asked you to help me understand what the difference was between the chart you posted and the chart Scott posted was. You provided a link to an article that would take a PhD in physics to understand, which tells me you don't know what the difference is. Thus, it is clear to me you are cherry picking the data to attempt to refute the claims that this will be a strong El Nino. How that differs from a "pissing contest" is just pure semantics.
I see storm Molave has sneaked back into the Pacific north west picture south of Japan!

Cool here now all week for us, nothing more that a simple 33/C forecast.
Quoting 332. JeffMasters:



SAL outbreaks occur independently of El Nino--I've not seen any research that links the two phenomena.

Jeff Masters


Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 341. Bucsboltsfan:

Naga and Ric were correct. Thanks for settling and bringing reason - no hype.
The thing is neither one of them claimed to be right. They just asked STS to show one study to support the idea he was right. The one study he does present showed a negative correlation between SAL and El Nino. Without a model to fall back on, he seems a little lost when it comes to science.
Quoting 346. vis0:

 oh wait this is El Nina you said La Nino
TADA!...on the serious note what do you think will happen with an La Nino? more wind, more rain, less rain same amount more ATL TS, clockwise TS? just wondering what a La Nino means to Taz.



It means larger and meatier burritos for all. :-)
353. vis0
Quoting 323. washingtonian115:

There were huge SAL outbreaks in 2005 and that was a neutral year..
in that...CASE... Joe needs a new alarm clock & GPS... w h i l e... STS & NAGA500 have to exchange one of each others shoe....and walk a mile...sorry barbamz not km, too short for the blog to cool off.
Quoting 348. tampabaymatt:



You have done this time and time again. Scott will post a Nino SST forecast chart, and you'll post a different variant of it. I once asked you to help me understand what the difference was between the chart you posted and the chart Scott posted was. You provided a link to an article that would take a PhD in physics to understand, which tells me you don't know what the difference is. Thus, it is clear to me you are cherry picking the data to attempt to refute the claims that this will be a strong El Nino. How that differs from a "pissing contest" is just pure semantics.


We're in a strong El Niño now. The numbers that everyone keeps posting are meaningless to me. All I'm concerned about now will be the impacts this winter.
Quoting 350. Naga5000:



Thanks, Dr. Masters.


Crickets...
Quoting 350. Naga5000:



Thanks, Dr. Masters.


Amazing that this is even a topic for debate. There are SAL outbreaks every year to a greater or lesser degree regardless of El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions. Typically, SAL is strongest early in the season and then tails off as we enter the peak months.
HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2015

HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ANALYZED AS BEING NEAR 35 KT BY UW-CIMSS. LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T VALUES FROM HFO/SAB/PGTW RANGE FROM 4.0/65
KT TO 4.5/77 KT...WHILE LATEST ADT VALUES ARE 4.4. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES...AND A STEADILY DEGRADING SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
315/06 KT...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE
CENTER IS USING INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
USABLE MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER HILDA FEATURES RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS
BETWEEN A LOW ALOFT NORTH OF HAWAII...AND A HIGH TO THE DISTANT
EAST. THIS WILL INDUCE HILDA TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE
MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND NOW LIES ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF A
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THAT HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS.

HILDA IS LIVING ON BORROWED TIME...AND WILL SOON GIVE IN TO THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST PATH. THUS HILDA IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY DAY 5. IN THE
MEANTIME HOWEVER...HILDA WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING
HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG
ISLAND WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS...AND IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE RATE OF FORECAST WEAKENING THEREAFTER IS CLOSE
TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS...BUT SLOWER THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS THAT MAY BE
FELT IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM HILDA...THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO
HILDA WILL OCCUR AT 6 HOURLY INTERVALS STARTING THIS EVENING...WITH
THE NEXT MISSION SLATED FOR THIS MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 17.5N 151.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 17.9N 151.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 18.4N 152.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.8N 153.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.1N 154.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 19.4N 156.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 19.5N 159.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REM
Quoting 354. Bucsboltsfan:



We're in a strong El Niño now. The numbers that everyone keeps posting are meaningless to me. All I'm concerned about now will be the impacts this winter.


Same here. Maybe, one of these days, someone can describe the differences between all of these Nino SST forecast charts that all look the same, but say something at the top like "PDF corrected" or "re-scaled". If you don't know what that really means, you shouldn't post them to try to refute someone else's point.
Quoting 332. JeffMasters:



SAL outbreaks occur independently of El Nino--I've not seen any research that links the two phenomena.

Jeff Masters
Thank you Dr. Masters. I agree with you.

Hurricane Dean approaching the Lesser Antilles during a strengthening La Nina in 2007.





The color-enhanced water vapor loop above (shown at 3-hour intervals) shows Dean approaching the northern Windward Islands of the Carribean. The thunderstorms surrounding the hurricane center are vigorous and tall, with brightness temperatures cooler than 210 K. Sea Surface Temperatures along the storm’s track get progressively warmer. As the storm approached the Caribbean, wind shear values deduced from satellite winds at 0300 UTC, 0600 UTC and 0900 UTC show mainly low values with a jump at 0600 UTC that may have slowed intensification as the storm approached the windward islands. Another factor that may have delayed intensification is the large region of dry air surrounding Dean. This is the large black region in the water vapor imagery that surrounds Dean to the north and west. Analyses of Saharan Air Layers at 0000 UTC 17 August and 1200 UTC 17 August from Meteosat 8 and GOES West show that the dry region in the water vapor imagery likely originated over the Sahara. Air masses rich in Saharan dust are known to suppress hurricane formation. Satellite data can be used to detect such dust. Satellite data from the 12 micrometer channel is compared to satellite data in the 11 micrometer channel. Where the (12-11) value is positive (that is, where the 11-micrometer brightness temperature is colder than the 12-micrometer value), dust is likely present. Both Meteosat-8 (over the Equator at 0 W) and GOES-11 (GOES-West, over the equator at 135 W) have a 12-micrometer sensor. Unfortunately, from the perspective of dust detection over the Atlantic, GOES-12 (GOES-East, over the Equator at 75 W) does not.

Link
Let's all go drink pina coladas at the Pioneer Inn!

Seriously, (looks like) Hilda's scheduled to come into the Big Island as a TS now, not a TD as was forecast earlier
We can't complain anything about Atlantic. We saw 3 consecutive years with 19 "named" storms (1 was subtropical in 2011).

As my deluxe self correctly predicted last night, I didn't get a drop of rain from an impressive MCV that vanished into thin air as it got to me. Actually, it didn't vanish. It just vanished here. As soon as it crossed over into Georgia, it reformed and intensified again. At 3:00 in the morning. There are times I feel like I just can't win.

Today, however, things are going to be different. The "diffuse boundary/pressure trough", in the words of the crack team at Birmingham, is going to head right at me. I have a 70% chance of rain today, much better than the 50% chance I had yesterday. I can't wait for the heavy rain to set in.

BWAHAhahahaha...ha...ha...

I think I'm starting get a little unhinged from the heat.
Quoting 344. WeatherConvoy:

Some of my college profesors are suggesting that the Sahara desert will expand due to the desiccation of the Sahel. The Sahara is a BWH climate tropical desert and the Sahel is a BSH- which is a subtropical steppe climate. So, climatology says that the Sahel is NOT as dry as the Sahara which receives less than 2" of rain annually. I write this because being a Hurricane fanatic and lover of tropical meteorology that I am, if this desiccation continues (erosion, overfarming, over irrigating crops etc) the SAL will dominate for the forseeable future if the Bermuda Azores High holds strong in the Eastern Atlantic like it has been for the last umpteenth years it seems. Someone needs to get a great big garden hose and spray that friggin region down with water!! (LMAO). Really geo-engineering is needed to intervene for us Tropical meteorology Fans at wunderground.com. Thank You for listening to a weather fanatic and I wish you all a Blessed day!!!!!
You could always relocate to the Philippines... :p
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
365. txjac
Quoting 344. WeatherConvoy:

Some of my college profesors are suggesting that the Sahara desert will expand due to the desiccation of the Sahel. The Sahara is a BWH climate tropical desert and the Sahel is a BSH- which is a subtropical steppe climate. So, climatology says that the Sahel is NOT as dry as the Sahara which receives less than 2" of rain annually. I write this because being a Hurricane fanatic and lover of tropical meteorology that I am, if this desiccation continues (erosion, overfarming, over irrigating crops etc) the SAL will dominate for the forseeable future if the Bermuda Azores High holds strong in the Eastern Atlantic like it has been for the last umpteenth years it seems. Someone needs to get a great big garden hose and spray that friggin region down with water!! (LMAO). Really geo-engineering is needed to intervene for us Tropical meteorology Fans at wunderground.com. Thank You for listening to a weather fanatic and I wish you all a Blessed day!!!!!


Hey there WeatherConvoy ..geo-engineering ....I sometimes think that our previous geo-engineering is causing some of our problems. Creating damns, making river run opposite of what they used to are just a couple that come to mind. I do realize that many times we need to make changes ...however Mother Nature is always gonna win
Quoting 354. Bucsboltsfan:



We're in a strong El Niño now. The numbers that everyone keeps posting are meaningless to me. All I'm concerned about now will be the impacts this winter.
I agree. I believe we've been under the influence a developing strong El Nino since early this year. It's what contributed to the heavy and persistent snows in New England and the heavy and persistent rainfall from Bill. I don't know what this winter will bring other than the chances for flooding rains in California and the Pacific Northwest are very high. I lived through the 82-83 and 97-98 events, and I did an awful lot of water rescues. For the rest of the country, there will be all kinds of extreme weather. How extreme and where is is still a subject for speculation. I'm just hoping the Southeast gets some decent rain out of this.
Quoting 356. kmanislander:



Amazing that this is even a topic for debate. There are SAL outbreaks every year to a greater or lesser degree regardless of El Nino, La Nina or neutral conditions. Typically, SAL is strongest early in the season and then tails off as we enter the peak months.





A logical and most excellent comment If I may say so,

So, are the Vintages safe Kman?

I worry about those things as we may get down that way before fall.

: )