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Soudelor Makes Beeline for Taiwan; CSU, NOAA Update Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks

By: Bob Henson 5:48 PM GMT on August 06, 2015

Although its peak sustained winds have dropped from 180 mph to 105 mph over the last several days, Typhoon Soudelor may embark on a final burst of intensification before striking Taiwan on Saturday. At 1500 GMT (11:00 am EDT) Thursday, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) positioned Soudelor at 21.3°N, 127.5°E, which is about 550 miles east-southeast of Taiwan’s largest city, Taipei, on the north end of the island. Soudelor is moving just north of west at about 11 mph. The JTWC’s 1500 GMT Thursday forecast track brings Soudelor onshore across central Taiwan just before 0000 GMT Saturday, or about 8:00 am Saturday local time. The projected track, arcing slightly toward the northwest over time, is a classic trajectory for this latitude, and is consistent with the GFS and ECMWF operational model runs and ensemble averages. The GFDL model bumps the track a bit more to the northwest, which would take Soudelor into the northern part of Taiwan, closer to Taipei.


Figure 1. An enhanced infrared image of Typhoon Soudelor from 1550 GMT Thursday (11:50 am EDT). Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA.


A bigger question mark is how strong Soudelor will be when it reaches Taiwan. Soudelor currently has a rather large eye (roughly 55 miles across, close to half a degree of longitude), with an intensifying solid ring of convection surrounded by a large field of spiral banding. Mesovortices (small-scale circulations) could be seen spinning within the large eye in visible satellite imagery. Soudelor’s brief stint as a super typhoon earlier this week was interrupted by an eyewall replacement cycle, with the much larger eye succeeding the typhoon’s originally tiny eye (about 5 miles in diameter, one of the smallest on record for a landfalling system, when Soudelor struck Saipan). Since that point, Soudelor has had some trouble rebuilding a large, solid core of convection, despite its excellent overall structure and the gradually increasing size of its envelope of moisture and banding. Dvorak imagery from the MTSAT satellite over the last few hours shows that very cold cloud tops (a sign of intense convection) are beginning to wrap around Soudelor’s eye once again, and temperatures within the eye are warming, another sign of intensification. Soudelor is now moving over slightly warmer SSTs (29-30°C, or 84-86°F, about 1°C above average) as it approaches Taiwan, and wind shear will be low (only around 5 - 10 mph).

Dynamical models generally agree in bringing Soudelor back to at least Category 3 strength before landfall in Taiwan, and I would not be at all surprised to see Soudelor pass the Category 4 threshold. The nation’s urbanized areas are well prepared for high typhoon winds, though widespread power outages and transportation disruptions are likely. Massive amounts of rain will fall where Soudelor slams into the north-south mountain range that spans most of Taiwan, and substantial local flooding and mudslides can be expected. Fortunately, Soudelor’s steady movement will help keep its rainfall totals below the truly prodigious amounts that slower-moving systems such as 2009’s Typhoon Morakot can produce. Morakot was only a Category 1 storm, but it moved in a leisurely cyclonic loop across northern Taiwan, prolonging the widespread intense rainfall. Morakot caused more than 450 deaths and some $3.3 billion US in damage.


Figure 2. This 3-D view of Soudelor’s eyewall and convective banding was produced using infrared and visible imagery from MTSAT combined with data from the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar aboard NASA’s Global Precipitation Satellite at 0006Z GMT on Thursday, August 6. The highest storm tops with Soudelor--extending up to more than 14.7 km (48,000 feet)--were located southwest of the typhoon's eye. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Soudelor is likely to bring at least 8” of rain to most of Taiwan and parts of east-central China, according to these projections of precipitation from the 0600 GMT Thursday ensemble of the GFDL hurricane model. Much higher amounts can be expected in and near mountainous areas of Taiwan. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Guillermo peters out north of Hawaii
Barely a tropical storm, Guillermo continues its slow decline as it tracks north of the Hawaiian islands. At 6:00 am Thursday HST (noon EDT), Guillermo was located about 225 miles east of Honolulu, heading west at 12 mph, with sustained winds of just 40 mph. Tropical storm warnings were in effect offshore, with high surf warning across the east- and north-facing shores of the Hawaiian islands. Guillermo is expected to weaken to tropical-depression status before sweeping just north of Honolulu; it could make landfall on Lihu’e, the northernmost major Hawaiian island, but little impact is expected other than localized heavy rain, gusty winds, and high seas.

Well to the southeast, newly christened Tropical Storm Hilda was located more than 1500 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas with sustained winds of 40 mph. Hilda is wrapped in a moist environment and already showing a healthy amount of convection. Low wind shear (5-10 mph) and warm water (28-29°C) favor strengthening, and the National Hurricane Center projects Hilda to become a hurricane by Saturday. Hilda will move in the general direction of Hawaii, although it is far too soon to know whether it might pose a threat to the islands late next week.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains quiet, with any waves coming off Africa struggling against dry air, Saharan dust, marginal sea-surface temperatures, persistently high wind shear, or some combination of these.

CSU and NOAA: Atlantic to be even quieter than predicted
Unsurprisingly, both Colorado State University and NOAA have reduced their projected seasonal totals for 2015 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic below the predictions released in May/June, which were already among the lowest in years. The elephant in the room (and in the Atlantic) is the ever-strengthening El Niño, whose hurricane-suppressing effects on the deep atmosphere over the Atlantic are in some cases unprecedented for this time of year. For a full rundown on why El Niño is so hostile to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, see last week’s post by new WU contributor Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead author for the CSU hurricane seasonal outlooks.


Figure 4. Rising motion associated with El Niño across the eastern tropical Pacific has led to strong westerly winds at high levels across the Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic, helping to suppress hurricane formation. This image shows vertical wind shear as measured by the difference between winds at 200 mb (about 40,000 feet) and 850 mb (about 5000 feet). Values of greater than 16 m/s (about 35 mph) dominate the main development region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic, shown in the green box. Within the red box, shear values for June-July 2015 were well beyond record values for those months in a database extending back to 1970. Image credit: NOAA.


The CSU forecast (see PDF), issued on Tuesday, calls for the following end-of-season totals, including this year’s activity to date (Tropical Storms Ana, Bill, and Claudette), as compared to its start-of-season outlook issued on 1 June:

Named storms: 8 (no change)
Named storm days: 25 (down from 30)
Hurricanes: 2 (down from 3)
Hurricane days: 8 (down from 10)
Major hurricanes: 1 (unchanged)
Major hurricane days: 0.5 (unchanged)
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): 35 (down from 40)
Net tropical cyclone activity: 40 (down from 45)

Landfall probabilities from CSU for various sections of the Gulf and Atlantic coast from August onward are generally only about one-third of their full-season averages for the past century. For the entire U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coastline, CSU pegs the odds of a major hurricane landfall at 23%, compared to a full-season, century-long average of 52%. (Even that 23% may be on the high side, considering that no hurricanes have made a U.S. landfall at Category 3 or stronger since Wilma in 2005.)

NOAA’s outlook, issued on Thursday, also brings down all of the forecast indices previously released in their pre-season May outlook. Below are the new NOAA numbers, again incorporating this year’s activity to date. For each range, the likelihood assigned by NOAA that the numbers will fall within the range is 70%, based on years with conditions similar to those now present.

Named storms: 6-10 (lowered from 6-11)
Hurricanes: 1-4 (lowered from 3-6)
Major hurricanes: 1 (lowered from 2)
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): 25-70% of average (lowered from 40-80%)

NOAA Is calling for a 90% chance of a below-average hurricane season, the highest odds for a relatively quiet year assigned at any point since the outlooks began in 1998 (right after 1997, the last season that saw an El Niño comparable in strength to the current one.) NOAA reminds us: “For the U.S. and the region around the Caribbean Sea, tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike even during seasons with El Niño.” For evidence, one need look no further than Hurricane Andrew, a catastrophic landfall in South Florida that occurred during El Niño. As with Andrew, any substantial hurricane this year would be most likely to intensify at or near subtropical latitudes, rather than in the deep tropical Atlantic, where the sinking air and strong shear produced by El Niño will be at their strongest.

For a recap of seasonal hurricane outlooks issued by other entities earlier this year, see the Jeff Masters post from May 27.

Bob Henson



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi Bob any research on Stronger El-Nino's effect on SAL Plumes? Everything I've learned and gathered thru school says Stronger El-Nino increases SAL Plumes off Africa.
   Thanks for the Update Bob...
Nice update, thanks.
I wouldn't mind if there were NO tropical storms or hurricanes the rest of this season.
thanx mr henson....from the last blog


It's common sense Ric.

you know what scott......i agree with you....it would seem like that....however.....i...as joe amateur....no formal schooling....rather than go on what would seem like common sense to me...i look these things up....and as i stated earlier...and naga also looked up....it's not the case....peer reviewed studies have proven otherwise
372. washingtonian115:
I have the La nina cover, have everything ready for the hype. ;)
That SW eyewall is where the Highest cloudtops are blooming, as were seeing some green blooms of Mojo there now.

FunkTop Imagery





What is a +PNA?
Quoting 7. Gearsts:

372. washingtonian115:
I have the La nina cover, have everything ready for the hype. ;)
Do you have the tweets and graphs lined up to post every other ten minutes?
Quoting 6. ricderr:

thanx mr henson....from the last blog


It's common sense Ric.

you know what scott......i agree with you....it would seem like that....however.....i...as joe amateur....no formal schooling....rather than go on what would seem like common sense to me...i look these things up....and as i stated earlier...and naga also looked up....it's not the case....peer reviewed studies have proven otherwise


Well Naga is wrong too. Stronger El-Nino produces higher pressures across the Atlantic & lower pressures across the Pacific leading to strong SAL Outbreaks off Africa. Again winds increase as high pressure air moves toward the much lower pressure air in the Pacific. These increased Easterly Winds push thicker SAL across the MDR hence lowering SST's due to the milky haze. Seems pretty straight forward reasoning.

Great illustration of this using the Euro model


Positive PNA... (West based?) Negative NAO DJF

Thanks for the new blog, the last one was taking forever to reload.
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

Do you have the tweets and graphs lined up to post every other ten minutes?
As soon as they start posting them!
Quoting 9. Gearsts:

What is a PNA?



Map (Positive Phase)

"re-loaded"
Associated Temperature and Precipitation Patterns

Plotted Historical Time Series

Daily PNA Time Series and Predictions

Plotted Recent Monthly Time Series

Historical Index: Monthly tabulated PNA teleconnection index dating back to 1950. Indices are standardized by the 1981-2010 climatology.

Back to contents


The Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) is one of the most prominent modes of low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The positive phase of the PNA pattern features above-average heights in the vicinity of Hawaii and over the intermountain region of North America, and below-average heights located south of the Aleutian Islands and over the southeastern United States. The PNA pattern is associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream. The positive phase is associated with an enhanced East Asian jet stream and with an eastward shift in the jet exit region toward the western United States. The negative phase is associated with a westward retraction of that jet stream toward eastern Asia, blocking activity over the high latitudes of the North pacific, and a strong split-flow configuration over the central North Pacific.

The positive phase of the PNA pattern is associated with above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western United States, and below-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S. The PNA tends to have little impact on surface temperature variability over North America during summer. The associated precipitation anomalies include above-average totals in the Gulf of Alaska extending into the Pacific Northwestern United States, and below-average totals over the upper Midwestern United States.

Although the PNA pattern is a natural internal mode of climate variability, it is also strongly influenced by the El Ni%uFFFDo/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The positive phase of the PNA pattern tends to be associated with Pacific warm episodes (El Ni%uFFFDo), and the negative phase tends to be associated with Pacific cold episodes (La Ni%uFFFDa).

NOAA/ National Weather Service
Quoting 12. Drakoen:

Positive PNA... (West based?) Negative NAO DJF




I feel like I am walking into Outback for a delicious steak dinner. That is fun pattern being depicted for the SE US extending up to the Mid Atlantic. Doesn't show much action in Cali though using some of the models I've seen. Strange considering a greater than 2C ENSO is coming.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson
Thanks Mr. Henson; the issue with Typhoon Soudelor and intensity at landfall is the big short-term question. Regardless of how well-prepared Taiwan might be in urbanized areas, a potential Cat 4 at landfall usually results in catastrophic damage to most structures impacted in/near the eye wall (ironic in terms of the reference to Andrew). Have to see how this plays out for them and what areas are impacted by the eye-wall.
Andrew was a mess at one point and then hit an unexpected shear sweet spot near the Bahamas and fed off the Gulf Stream on the way in during a rapid intensification phase that happened to coincide with landfall. At least the folks in Taiwan have a little more lag time and knew this one was coming in as a potential major for a few days now...............They cannot let their guard down with this one at this point.
Does someone have a comparison of SAL this year versus the past 2 years?
Well Naga is wrong too. Stronger El-Nino produce higher pressures across the Atlantic & lower pressures across the Pacific leading to strong SAL Outbreaks off Africa. Again winds increase as high pressure air moves toward the much lower pressure air in the Pacific. These increased Easterly Winds push thicker SAL across the MDR hence lowering SST's due to the milky haze. Seems pretty straight forward reasoning.

i guess learned scientists that produced the study are wrong too.....dang them pesky scientists acting like they know more than us bloggers...LOL
CSU and NOAA: Atlantic to be even quieter than predicted
Unsurprisingly, both Colorado State University and NOAA have reduced their projected seasonal totals for 2015 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic below the predictions released in May/June, which were already among the lowest in years. The elephant in the room (and in the Atlantic) is the ever-strengthening El Niño, whose hurricane-suppressing effects on the deep atmosphere over the Atlantic are in some cases unprecedented for this time of year. For a full rundown on why El Niño is so hostile to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, see last week’s post by new WU contributor Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead author for the CSU hurricane seasonal outlooks.


El Niño is so hostile to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic!! the big key here
Quoting 20. ricderr:

Well Naga is wrong too. Stronger El-Nino produce higher pressures across the Atlantic & lower pressures across the Pacific leading to strong SAL Outbreaks off Africa. Again winds increase as high pressure air moves toward the much lower pressure air in the Pacific. These increased Easterly Winds push thicker SAL across the MDR hence lowering SST's due to the milky haze. Seems pretty straight forward reasoning.

i guess learned scientists that produced the study are wrong too.....dang them pesky scientists acting like they know more than us bloggers...LOL


Show me as I just posted on last blog from MR. Tibbetts @ the NWS who says different. Do I need to repost it for you? Again show me proof as so far I've seen nothing from you to the contrary.
Quoting 7. Gearsts:

372. washingtonian115:
I have the La nina cover, have everything ready for the hype. ;)


Ugh! I can't wait...

Quoting 5. RickWPB:

Nice update, thanks.
I wouldn't mind if there were NO tropical storms or hurricanes the rest of this season.
I agree, it would be fun seeing the posts of the desperate bloggers with nothing to track in the Atlantic, lol.
Just a reminder of Texas heat, gonna pound the blog with this image till we catch on fire in Houston.

Quoting 22. ricderr:

Education University of Central Florida, Seminole Community College


hey floridians....could you help me out.....does either of these colleges offer met classes???????


Just checked - - No.
Unfortunately kids and pets will be left in cars in Texas. Never stops.
Quoting 27. RitaEvac:

Just a reminder of Texas heat, gonna pound the blog with this image till we catch on fire in Houston.




Adding the humidity, that is flipping hot. Parents need to take care of their children, pets and of course the elderly.
EUROPE'S HIGHEST BUILDING SITE - NEW RECORD WARMEST TEMPERATURE: The record warmest temperature at the summit of Signalkuppe / Punta Gnifetti of 9.1 C / 48.4 F was set on August 5, 2015. The summit is on the Italy-Switzerland border at an elevation of 4554 meters / 14941 feet, and is the site of Europe's highest building, Margherita Hut / Capanna Regina Margherita, which is on the Italian side. Weather records there go back to 2000.
Link
Not much yet but it's uh coming.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON HANNA
11:00 PM PhST August 6 2015
======================
Typhoon “HANNA” continues to move closer towards Batanes-Taiwan area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Hanna [SOUDELOR] (954 hPa) located at 21.4N 127.6E or 595 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warnings #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1 - 14.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Batanes province including Itbayat

Signal Warnings #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

Luzon Region
========
1. Calayan and Babuyan group of islands
2. northern Cagayan


Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Palawan, Masbate, Visayas and Mindanao.

Southwest Monsoon is affecting southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:



Stalking people's profiles are we? To set the record straight as I have many times on here which by the way would never and i mean never go into to others social media profiles. So here it is yes I did go to FSU with a scholarship switched majors from Meteorology to Business and got a Marketing degree @ UCF in 2005. Again some can be real sick on here! With that I am out and watchout for ricderr snooping into your personal life without you knowing it. Good luck blog to what kind of person is on here.


Fyi - if you have it out there on social media for the world to see, no one is snooping into your's or anyone's personal life. You are putting it out there for people to read. It's our society today. If you don't like it the stay away from LinkedIn, FB, etc.
Quoting 36. tampabaymatt:



Out of line Ric. Your blatant trolling of Scott's posts is getting old. His explanation seems very reasonable to me. If you don't agree with it, fine, but at least Scott went into detail and provided some support behind his point.


Euro showing very strong Cold Front next week. Stalls right over C FL with lots of upper support to boot.

Very low pressures across FL for August.
Quoting 22. ricderr:

Education University of Central Florida, Seminole Community College


hey floridians....could you help me out.....does either of these colleges offer met classes???????


Information on others is public domain assessable. One chooses to do that, then so be it. But, when they put that on blast on a blog for all to see; then it becomes unacceptable and a low brow attack of distribution personal information to make a point. No place for that.
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



To be honest i don't even know what is on my page as i set it up so long ago and linkedin I never use. Either way I would never take someone's picture upload to see who they are so I suppose you and ricderr have a blast doing that on here to all these blog members on here. Crazy!

Again its not about having a social media site its how you and ric got the info by uploading my pic form a profile on me. That is sick!


I don't know who you are nor have I ever been on any of you social media sites. I simply stated that people (not just you) shouldn't get bent when someone looks at their social media pages. That's why people put them out there - to be looked at. Now, was it right for Ric to post your education? That's his choice, it is public but I wouldn't do it.
Quoting 40. StormTrackerScott:



Euro showing very strong Cold Front next week. Stalls right over C FL with lots of upper support to boot.

Very low pressures across FL for August.



Yes, Tampa NWS has begun keying in on this also. We might hit 100 inches of rain in Tampa before the year is over.
Quoting 43. tampabaymatt:



Yes, Tampa NWS has begun keying in on this also. We might hit 100 inches of rain in Tampa before the year is over.


Take rain out of the equation it looks quite cool north of FL during the overnights later next week. Not just cool either but very dry. Refreshing as I would say.
This blog never fails to be boring..

12z run
Quoting 45. ncstorm:

This blog never fails to be boring..


I just had to do a Back to Back like Drake did to Meek Mill in Toronto earlier this week.
Quoting 49. Patrap:



Cold-caster'



.....only the facts.....
Quoting 51. Drakoen:




.....only the facts.....


Indeed, Joe



SYNOPSIS 2015080600

P17L
12N, 52W
925 hPa

P17L might be a reincarnation of P10L/94L. Because of the temporal gap, and the fact that P10L would have been required to slow considerably for the last few days, there is enough uncertainty that I initiate this as a new pouch.


ECMWF: This low-level 925-hPa pouch is small but quite distinct for the first day, then it quickly dissipates.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, tracking a little faster and lasting slightly longer as a distinct pouch than in ECMWF.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -6.9 0.4 track 36h
GFS -7.6 0.8 track 36h
UKMET
NAVGEM
I thought the debate was tonight?

: /
We have surpassed the annual average of 90 degree days here in D.C by two.Today we will not be reaching the 90's because of over cast.Temps are currently in the mid 80's.We may have a chance to add one or two more 90 degree days if temps over perform on Monday and Tuesday.
Quoting 33. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Not much yet but it's uh coming.




Northwestern quadrant starting to appear on Japan's radar:

Quoting 61. washingtonian115:

We have surpassed the annual average of 90 degree days here in D.C by two.Today we will not be reaching the 90's because of over cast.Temps are currently in the mid 80's.We may have a chance to add one or two more 90 degree days if temps over perform on Monday and Tuesday.


WPC showing lots of rain for you over the next 7 days.


SYNOPSIS 2015080600

P15L

12N, 24W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Trend toward a more northward track component continues. Slightly elongated in the SW-NE orientation in the analysis. Dissipates into a meridional shear line after only 48 hours (sooner than yesterday's forecast).

GFS: Similar to yesterday's GFS: Although the analysis OW is modest, P15L is a relatively large, circular pouch that is able to track to the WNW, lasting 96 hours.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -5.1 3.2 track 48h
GFS -4.5 0.8 track 96h
UKMET
NAVGEM
So, the natural question to ask now is “Does big summer blocking typically portend blocking risks the following winter?” A quick analysis of the data suggests that the answer is an emphatic “yes”. In fact, of the 10 “blockiest” Julys, all 10 exhibited negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) values in aggregate during the following winter (below), including 3 of the 4 blockiest winters since 1950 (1962-63, 1968-69, 2009-10
Hilda seems to be quite a bit stronger than advertised...

I see that 93E has appeared on the scene, its all adding up to a possible record year in the Pacific.

59. WKC's gonna freak! This pouch's moisture plume has spread today while convection wanes. What does this mean? But seriously, if this ever reached invest nature again the blog would be hopping. Just how sad is this season? That sad.
Link

Hey all...

Nice WU article on the season above, El Nino, Enso etc. Not so technical in terms but generous on info...an easy read.
Trying not to get caught up on the El-Nino in progress.......I get my hopes up for strong ones only to be disappointed when they are weak-moderate intensity. No guarantee for heavy rain year in California with strong El Nino but the odds are def increased. Weak-Moderate.......not so much. We need the rains for aquifers and storage, mudslides and flooding be dammed! It's tough out here.......too much warm rain melts the snow too early and walah no melt during spring and summer........always a monkey wrench thrown in for good measure on the rainfall-snowfall and the timing of it all.
"NOAA, which released its final forecast update of the season Thursday, calls for a 90 percent likelihood of:

- 6-10 named storms (including three tropical storms that formed earlier in the season: Ana, Bill, and Claudette)
- 1-4 of which would become hurricanes
- 0-1 of which would become major hurricanes %u2013 those of at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This is below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA noted the modern-era record low number of Atlantic hurricanes in any season is two in 2013 and 1982."

From below link...
always somem no
Your personal life is your own..unless you choose to post it here then that's on you..I myself don't..

Playing dumb about your actions is inexcusable..

Posting anyone's personal information on WU without their consent should be a permanent ban offense..

I really hope because of my "debates" with other members that people aren't looking for information on me..I choose to stay anonmously just of what I have seen on this blog in the past from other members and what was posted today..

Later..






I am a semi-public official and all over the internet/google in my professional capacity but don't keep a facebook page for privacy reasons (and for my family's safety) and do not participate in any social media with the exception of this blog. And as a former rock & roll guitar player in the 80's, when workmen come to house and ask what I do for living, I point out the guitars in the loft and tell them I am a retired guitar player and leave it at that.

In this internet/media age, we should all be putting out as little as possible as it can be used for bad purposes if you care about your privacy. No one on this blog should be disseminating any personal information about yourselves (or outing anyone) unless related to a specific point if needed.
click image for wide frame view of loop




New TS Hilda looks good, if compact.


Just to correct something from the last blog, STS claimed a direct relation between El Nino and SAL which is not the case,

"The linear correlation between Niño3 SST anomalies and the Barbados dust record is found to be insignificant for the chosen period, indicating that El Niño and dust events over the Atlantic can be considered, to a first order, mathematically independent. " Link

Beyond that, research treats ENSO and SAL as separate entities in analysis, which suggests that the two are independent enough from each other, which is supported by typical rainfall patterns of summer El Nino's:

which do not support the idea that El Nino is directly responsible for increased SAL over the MDR.
Quoting 60. Patrap:

I thought the debate was tonight?

: /


Ugh... I think I'll go fishing. I can't be a debate with 10 candidates.
Quoting 77. weathermanwannabe:

I am a semi-public official and all over the internet/google in my professional capacity but don't keep a facebook page for privacy reasons (and for my family's safety) and do not participate in any social media with the exception of this blog. And as a former rock & roll guitar player in the 80's, when workmen come to house and ask what I do for living, I point out the guitars in the loft and tell them I am a retired guitar player and leave it at that.

In this internet/media age, we should all be putting out as little as possible as it can be used for bad purposes if you care about your privacy. No one on this blog should be disseminating any personal information about yourselves (or outing anyone) unless related to a specific point if needed.


Well um, 2 thumbs up for rock n roll guitar!! I play a lil too. (smiles)
If we get blocking in the winter it can be a win win situation for people on the blog.The blocking would make the Atlantic look like a sauna,that and with the downfall of el nino Gearest can get his hurricane season he dreamed of and maybe I might have a interesting winter.(During winter it's really dead up here and snow brings life to the landscape.)
@philklotzbach 1m
North Pacific ACE at record high levels through August 6 - 55 ACE units higher than any year since 1971. @EricBlake12

It seems almost certain now that we must look to next year for any chances of notable storm activity in this basin.

My thinking is that even the 2016 forecast must be tempered with reason as I doubt the atmosphere can just suddenly switch after 4 years of abject poverty.
Looks like Hilda is getting her act together. Some nice banding-feeder bands? on north side.

Quoting 64. tampabaymatt:



WPC showing lots of rain for you over the next 7 days.
They've had to back on the totals some.But none the less my garden will be getting happy as they have been doing a rain dance.(Rain dance as in flower peddles coming off and turning dry/crunchy.)
Meanwhile, the eye wall on the Typhoon keeps on intensifying:

TS Hilda is a littie storm in size
we have invest 93E TO!
Looks like good outflow, moist enough for now with drier air to the north of her as it heads in the general direction of Hawaii. Hilda appears well on her way.



That image at Figure 2, Above in this blog, is absolutely magnificent.
Hopefully we can get to see those composites on a regular basis, especially for Atlantic systems.... If we ever get any LOL !
Quoting 89. weathermanwannabe:

Meanwhile, the eye wall on the Typhoon keeps on intensifying:




I know it's a strong storm.......but looks kinda sickly to me, esp the west/nw side....just don't look right. Hope it does not stengthen further.
Quoting 93. pottery:

If we ever get any LOL !


you can say that again

lmao
Sitting under a dry hot nearly cloudless sky with a ton of African dust overhead in the Keys. Lows in mid-80's now.

Hard to imagine 1913 here - from NWS Key West discussion

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1913...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON AUGUST 6TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 102 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Quoting 85. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@philklotzbach 1m
North Pacific ACE at record high levels through August 6 - 55 ACE units higher than any year since 1971. @EricBlake12





and that will get higher has thing are this about to go hyperactive in the E PAC the way the GFS has been forcasting a # of strong hurricanes
Quoting 64. tampabaymatt:



WPC showing lots of rain for you over the next 7 days.


I don't count it till it's fallen. A lot of really promising rain events just fail here in summer.
Just had to come back and post what the 12z Navgem ensembles does with ex 94L..







EP, 10, 2015080618, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1328W, 45, 1001, TS


i would have went with at lest 50 or 60kt i think 45 is being a little to nic

Quoting 94. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I know it's a strong storm.......but looks kinda sickly to me, esp the west/nw side....just don't look right. Hope it does not stengthen further.
Agree; the Western quad has been having issues all day but the eye wall keeps looking better at the same time............However, the latest advisory from JTWC has it down to 90 knots.................Hopefully, it will not have time to ramp up before landfall but you never know:

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 21.1N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
Soudelor's eyewall has opened up again. This is very good news for Taiwan. Very little chance now of this undergoing RI to a Cat 4/5 from here. Should be about steady state to landfall. Still a dangerous storm though, very large, with wind, rain, and surge all serious threats.

Taiwan Work and Class Status during Natural Disasters Link

Yilan County Work and Classes Cancelled Today.
Hualien County Work and Classes Cancelled Today.
LyudaoTownship(綠島鄉)、LanyuTownship(蘭嶼 ): Work and Classes Cancelled Today.

Central Weather Bureau has Soudelor at 95 knots (10 min sustained winds) with a central pressure of 930 hPa.
Quoting 28. Bucsboltsfan:



Just checked - - No.


It's not as much fun but if you get an undergraduate degree in physics, math or engineering from a decent school, you are an excellent candidate for graduate school in meteorology.
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

EP, 10, 2015080618, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1328W, 45, 1001, TS


i would have went with at lest 50 or 60kt i think 45 is being a little to nic
Hilda does look to be organizaing quickly.
Quoting 77. weathermanwannabe:

I am a semi-public official and all over the internet/google in my professional capacity but don't keep a facebook page for privacy reasons (and for my family's safety) and do not participate in any social media with the exception of this blog. And as a former rock & roll guitar player in the 80's, when workmen come to house and ask what I do for living, I point out the guitars in the loft and tell them I am a retired guitar player and leave it at that.

In this internet/media age, we should all be putting out as little as possible as it can be used for bad purposes if you care about your privacy. No one on this blog should be disseminating any personal information about yourselves (or outing anyone) unless related to a specific point if needed.
I wholeheartedly agree with this. Unfortunately young people in particular but internet users in general give out far too much personal information. While it may be well intended, it also means those with negative intentions have lots of ammo. Sad, but true.


invest 93E moving the same path as the new tropical storm

Here is the JTWC discussion on the Typhoon as to the current discussion on the eye wall issue and prognosis towards landfall:

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 30NM
EYE WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE. A 061240Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS
WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL OF ABOUT 50NM DIAMETER AND A LARGER,
160NM DIAMETER EYEWALL, SEPARATED BY A WELL-DEFINED MOAT FEATURE.
THIS DOUBLE EYEWALL CONFIGURATION HAS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY; THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO
102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA SOUNDING AND RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IN
THE SHORT TERM, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC); HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AN ERC AS THEY CAN
PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WHICH VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DEGREE OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. NEAR TAU 36, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON.
BY
TAU 48, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN
ex.94.persistant&pesky
Quoting 103. MAweatherboy1:

Soudelor's eyewall has opened up again. This is very good news for Taiwan. Very little chance now of this undergoing RI to a Cat 4/5 from here. Should be about steady state to landfall. Still a dangerous storm though, very large, with wind, rain, and surge all serious threats.




Image is a little old, you can see from the satellite images, that gap on the west side has mostly filled.
That eye is def shrinking.........eyewall replacement ending? Even after the eyewall was open...latest frame shows closed again? Interesting. Hope that's not the case. It still has time to ramp up. The west-nw side still appears to have issues to me.

The GFS model seems only valid in the Pacific ocean these days. It is quite rubbish in this basin now. I guess it's not hard to predict storm formation over there now as every puff of clouds seems capable of developing into a record setting typhoon.

On our end, landcanes over Africa have usually vaporized 12-18 hours after splashdown. If some of the waves we've seen in the last 2-3 years had come in other seasons, records for hurricane strength would have fallen hard.

I am not believing an active season next year until we are 10 storms to the good by the end of August and then maybe, just maybe, I'll believe that 2016's forecast was correct.
Here is the latest RAMBB update; trying to wrap around on the NW side of the eye wall gonna mix out that swatch of dry air in a few hours:
Quoting 85. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@philklotzbach 1m
North Pacific ACE at record high levels through August 6 - 55 ACE units higher than any year since 1971. @EricBlake12


I'm fully expecting 2015 to be the 2005 of the EPac. I can't imagine what would keep it from having another 10 to 15 storms ...
Quoting 100. ncstorm:

Just had to come back and post what the 12z Navgem ensembles does with ex 94L..








You gats to be kidding... :-) lol
Quoting 83. Starhopper:



Well um, 2 thumbs up for rock n roll guitar!! I play a lil too. (smiles)
Rockin and Rollin' all through the night last night with that train of boomers that woke us up with regularity... (yawn) local pws recorded less than an inch of precip.. we had one particularly nasty cell that dumped and blew for a good 10 minutes and caused me to hope that I left all of the windows closed tightly.. (I had). I still play my Ibanez RG 750 on occasion.. it's action is so low it really plays itself.. and that Floyd Rose.. I love it.. whammy till the cows come home and it stays in tune.. chung chung chung wheeeeeooooeeee!!
Quoting 106. hurricanes2018:






Wonder if the HH are still in Hawaii. Pretty convenient if so.
Soudelor seems to be strengthening despite issues with its eye, first grey cloud tops in a while showing up on AVN with a recent thunderstorm flare-up:

Quoting 116. yonzabam:



Now I'm worried. Does this mean that the guy from Ougadougou who needed my bank details might have been less than honest?
Of course not.... anybody from Ougoudougou must NEED bank details......
120. JNFlori30A
4:05 PM EDT on August 06, 2015


Good for you; I am old school. Was blasting Van Halen I on the car stereo on the way to the office this morning as I drank the coffee; I was pumped by the time I walked into the office and whammy bared out by Eddie.................



starting to strengthening again!!
Will be at the House of Blues here tomorrow night as Sons Band is playing there.

I'll check the weather on Decatur St.

Last Saturday here








Quoting 125. Patrap:




starting to strengthening!! bad news
Lot's of black and grays setting up in that eyewall now.

CSU is calling for just 25 named storm days. By way of comparison, 2005 had 126, and 1933 had 136.

Yowza...

Quoting 122. TimSoCal:



Wonder if the HH are still in Hawaii. Pretty convenient if so.
  No need for them in the East.....
It can't make up it's mind what to do.......strengthen,weaken or maintain.......appears it may be strengthening a bit, from satellite appearance.

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 14NM EYE WITH DEEP
BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY IS SHALLOW AND STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. A 061721Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
MUCH LARGER EYE SURROUNDING THE REMNANTS OF THE SMALLER MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95
KNOTS BASED ON INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90
TO 102 KNOTS AND SUPPORTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, INDICATED BY A
POINT SOURCE ANALYZED OVER THE TYPHOON; HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA
SOUNDING AND RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. TY SOUDELOR IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IN
THE SHORT TERM, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO 105
KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND
INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 24, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A
WEAK TYPHOON. BY TAU 48, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL
OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR QUANZHOU.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION OVER
LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

Quoting 135. Patrap:




what was the Chesapeake bay/eastern shore of md/de under a ts warning from?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

...TINY HILDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...
...HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 133.4W
ABOUT 1695 MI...2725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
137. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Tokyo Advanced Dvorak Technique been showing Category 4, 115 knots (T6.0) for some time now, which is close to what Tawain's weather warning agency is showing with 95 knots (10 min).
Tropical Storm HILDA
2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 2015
Location: 12.7°N 133.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
PHOTOS: Typhoon Soudelor Ransacks Remote Island of Saipan
Katy Galimberti

By Katy Galimberti, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 6, 2015; 3:32 PM ET


In Saipan, a U.S. commonwealth with a population of 53,000, fierce winds and drenching rain left a trail of damage.
According to the Red Cross, nearly 500 people spent Monday night in several government shelters.

"The storm took out power, water and sewage facilities and blocked major roadways. Power and water supplies may not be restored for several weeks," the Red Cross said in a press release.

As of Wednesday, some residents have not had running water or electricity for four days. The Federal Agency of Emergency Management (FEMA) was called in by local officials to assist in the recovery process.
President Obama declared the Northern Mariana Island, including Saipan, under a State of Disaster on Thursday
Soudelor charged directly over the island, resulting in widespread damage.
A band of dry air getting into system from the SW.

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

Hilda's cloud pattern has rapidly increased in organization during
the past 12 hours. Conventional satellite imagery reveals a tiny
tropical cyclone with a nearly symmetric dense overcast and a
prominent band over the northern half of the circulation. A 1503
UTC Windsat pass showed a closed low-level ring of convection,
suggesting that the inner core of the tropical cyclone is already
well established. The initial intensity estimate is raised to 50 kt
in best agreement with an earlier AMSU pass.

The initial motion has been due west or 270/11. Nothing has
changed regarding the forecast philosophy in the previous advisory.
Hilda should continue moving westward and then turn west-
northwestward in about 36 hours as it nears the western periphery of
a subtropical ridge to its north. The cyclone should begin to
respond to a weakness in the ridge located to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands and turn northwestward at a significantly reduced
forward speed by 96 hours. The official track forecast has been
shifted significantly to the left during the first 48 hours but
still lies on the right side of the guidance envelope. The track
forecast after 48 hours is also left of the previous forecast but
is closer to the multi-model consensus late in the forecast period.

There are no obvious obstacles to additional intensification in the
short term, except for somewhat drier and more stable air mass to
the north and west of the cyclone. Given Hilda's small size, it is
assumed that the entrainment of this air is not likely to be an
inhibitor. The SHIPS model output indicates less conducive
thermodynamic variables in 2 to 3 days which should halt any further
intensification. Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in the
central Pacific after 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear
associated with a mid- to upper-level trough near the longitude of
Hawaii should result in weakening. In fact, the shear could be
strong enough late in the period to cause a decoupling of the
cyclone as depicted in global model fields. The new intensity
forecast is boosted much higher in the short term to account for the
current strengthening trend and is closest to the LGEM. The
intensity forecast is near or below the multi-model consensus after
72 hours to emphasize the weakening expected at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.7N 133.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.6N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.7N 137.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.1N 139.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 13.7N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 15.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 147.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
Patrap:

PHOTOS: Typhoon Soudelor Ransacks Remote Island of Saipan
Katy Galimberti

By Katy Galimberti, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
August 6, 2015; 3:32 PM ET


In Saipan, a U.S. commonwealth with a population of 53,000, fierce winds and drenching rain left a trail of damage.
According to the Red Cross, nearly 500 people spent Monday night in several government shelters.

"The storm took out power, water and sewage facilities and blocked major roadways. Power and water supplies may not be restored for several weeks," the Red Cross said in a press release.

As of Wednesday, some residents have not had running water or electricity for four days. The Federal Agency of Emergency Management (FEMA) was called in by local officials to assist in the recovery process.
President Obama declared the Northern Mariana Island, including Saipan, under a State of Disaster on Thursday
Soudelor charged directly over the island, resulting in widespread damage.






Some other images I've seen from the destruction from Soudelor in Saipan, Mariana Islands
Quoting 139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

...TINY HILDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...
...HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 133.4W
ABOUT 1695 MI...2725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
You called dat one!
We're gonna get some relief flowing into the Mariana's, as the Declaration came down today.

Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Typhoon Soudelor (DR-4235)
Incident period: August 1, 2015 to August 3, 2015
Major Disaster Declaration declared on August 5, 2015



President Declares Disaster for Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands

Main Content
Release date: AUGUST 6, 2015
Release Number: HQ-15-056
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that federal disaster aid has been made available to the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands and ordered federal aid to supplement commonwealth and local recovery efforts in the area affected by Typhoon Soudelor during the period of August 1-3, 2015.

The President's action makes federal funding available to affected individuals on the island of Saipan. Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs, low-cost loans to cover uninsured property losses, and other programs to help individuals and business owners recover from the effects of the disaster.

Federal funding also is available to Commonwealth and eligible local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations on a cost-sharing basis for emergency work as a result of Typhoon Soudelor on the islands of Rota, Saipan, and Tinian.

Federal funding is available on a cost-sharing basis for hazard mitigation measures for the entire Commonwealth.

Individuals and business owners who sustained losses in the designated area can begin applying for assistance by registering online at www.DisasterAssistance.gov or by calling 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or by web enabled mobile device at m.fema.gov. Disaster assistance applicants, who have a speech disability or hearing loss and use TTY, should call 1-800-462-7585 directly; for those who use 711 or Video Relay Service (VRS), call 1-800-621-3362. The toll-free telephone numbers will operate from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. (local time) seven days a week until further notice.

Stephen M. De Blasio Sr. has been named as the Federal Coordinating Officer for federal recovery operations in the affected area. De Blasio Sr. said that damage surveys are continuing in other areas, and additional areas may be designated for assistance after the assessments are fully completed.

Follow FEMA online at www.fema.gov/blog, www.twitter.com/fema, www.facebook.com/fema, and www.youtube.com/fema. Also, follow Administrator Craig Fugate's activities at www.twitter.com/craigatfema.

The social media links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government websites, companies or applications.

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

Related Content:
Federal Aid Programs for Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands Declaration
Last Updated: August 6, 2015 - 00:20

Look how one pocket of dry air just about stopped convection on the N and NE side of the storm. That pocket came off the P.I. of Luzon.....let's see if the dry air entrainment stops as Soudelor pulls closer to Taiwan....which will allow it to further strengthen.......it's already nudging up a bit with the dry air.

For Taiwan Cities/Counties

Sea and Land Typhoon Warning 2015-08-07 02:30

New Taipei City
Keelung City
Taipei City
Yilan County
Taoyuan City
Hsinchu County
Miaoli County
Hsinchu City
Taichung City
Hualien County
Changhua County
Nantou County
Yunlin County
Chiayi County
Tainan City
Chiayi City
Kaohsiung City
Taitung County
Pingtung County
Quoting 40. StormTrackerScott:



Euro showing very strong Cold Front next week. Stalls right over C FL with lots of upper support to boot.

Very low pressures across FL for August.



Yeah like tampabaymatt, at the rate some of the Tampa Bay area could hit 100 inches by the end of the year with El Nino to round up the year. Some areas are already over 60 inches year to date just north of Tampa where the worst flooding has been. Tampa was below average year to date until the rainy season, now it's at nearly 50 inches, Tampa International has has more than 35 inches since the rainy season started, I've had a bit more at 39 inches, likely because I'm closer to the coast, where the heaviest rains have been the last couple months.

Honestly, the event you are showing looks even more impressive as far as rain flooding rain potential than anything we've seen so far, which is a bit scary. The really low upper heights guidance is showing mixed with a deep tropical air mass could get scary. It also means an unusually high potential for severe weather. Looks like a spring front stalling and mixing with a deep tropical air mass. The result could be crazy.

It's still a long ways out in the forecast, so a lot could change. But given the recent flooding here, we'll need to keep a close eye on it.
That dry air the only thing keeping Soudelor from being a Cat4 right now and perhaps stronger later......pray it keeps getting entrained into the storm. Noone wants a Cat5 Super Typhoon crossing just south of Taipei and it's 2-3 million citizens


maybe the east coast need to be watch why blue on the southeast coast line


maybe winds going back up to 120 mph to 130 mph soon!! nice looking eye here
Very impressive.
my new blog Link
Warming World May Mean More Hurricanes for Hawai

For the second summer in a row, a tropical cyclone is headed toward Hawaii, a relative rarity for the island chain. But in a warming world, the 50th state could face more tropical storms and hurricanes, some research suggests, with one new study finding that climate change upped the odds of last year’s spate of storms.

Though Hawaii is a tropical island, it doesn’t have the same risk of being hit by tropical cyclones (the generic term for tropical storms, hurricanes and typhoons) that islands in the Caribbean or Asia have.

That’s because it is typically surrounded by relatively cold ocean waters and is in a region with wind patterns that tend to produce a lot of what is called shear, or a difference in the speed or direction of winds at different heights in the atmosphere that tend to rip apart a storm.


Link
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON HANNA
5:00 AM PhST August 7 2015
======================
Typhoon “HANNA” continues to move closer towards Batanes-Taiwan area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Hanna [SOUDELOR] (954 hPa) located at 21.7N 126.4E or 485 km east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warnings #2
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1 - 14.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Batanes province including Itbayat

Signal Warnings #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Calayan and Babuyan group of islands
2. northern Cagayan

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon, southern seaboard of southern Luzon and the seaboards of Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao.

Southwest Monsoon is affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
I see the GFS is back at it again...
Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
Big uptick in African easterly wave activity in the fcst following a strong CCKW passage. See Link

Quoting 156. hurricanes2018:

my new blog Link

to far out!!
Portlight featured wunderblog entry

www.portlight.org/home





President Declares Disaster for Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands

Main Content
Release date: AUGUST 6, 2015
Release Number: HQ-15-056

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that federal disaster aid has been made available to the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands and ordered federal aid to supplement commonwealth and local recovery efforts in the area affected by Typhoon Soudelor during the period of August 1-3, 2015.

FEMA declared IA and PA for Saipan, and PA for Rota and Tinian.



FEMA along with our partner's at the Red Cross have requested that Portlight also join the effort to relive those affected by the Typhoon in the Mariana's.

There are real needs and those affected are due the full measure of all support.




A plan of action is being put in motion as to Transportation, the local,needs, as local relief and civil disability stakeholders are adding to that request list hourly.

Close Co-ordination is now possible with FEMA and portlight as they actually came to a agreement with Portlight at FEMA Headquarters, Washington D. C. just last Thursday.

Portlight has been partnered now 6 full years with the Red Cross as well.



This Relief push is to provide immediate relief to those most affected.

We will have a much more detailed update on this effort as we get the updates here

Hurricane Preparation 2015

We want to thank the extended Portlight Family for all you do as well as those who support us financially and with volunteering too.

On the 24 hour wind map there is a very good simulation of Soudelor directly over the centre of Taiwan.
Meanwhile there seems to be a new unnamed storm to the east of Soudelor and to the south of Japan. Winds are projected to be about 45 MPH +.

Link


All Signs Indicate a New Monster El Niño Is Coming

(Some good graphics with this , comparing 1997 to 2015)

Link
Massive Die Off Of Ocean Animals Turning Pacific Ocean Into Desert, Go See Them Now Before They’re Extinct


Sea animals are dying off in massive numbers along the Pacific Coastline from Baja, Mexico all the way to Alaska, and there may be nothing anyone can do about it.

A combination of man-made and natural causes are killing off bottlenose dolphins, sardines, sea birds, plankton, krill, salmon, sea lions, starfish, and brown pelicans in record numbers.


What’s worse, the planet may be forced to do without them, as their absence may be the new normal.


Read more at Link
Quoting 138. Articuno:



what was the Chesapeake bay/eastern shore of md/de under a ts warning from?

Ophelia
The outline of Hilda's eye is evident on BD imagery.

Quoting 161. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
Big uptick in African easterly wave activity in the fcst following a strong CCKW passage. See Link


conditions have to allign perfectly for one wave for that to happen. maybe we can squeeze out 1 major hurricane
Sunrise over Typhoon Soudelor

Fires in South Central Africa -

Aqua/MODIS
2015/218
08/06/2015
12:00 UTC

Link
I thought Portlight's mission was helping the disabled.
I know it's a bit of a third rail to touch the subject, but somehow the core mission got derailed.
I'm not understanding how a contribution to Portlight helps the disabled folks.
Seems like a contribution to Portlight is now a contribution to Red Cross in general, with an added layer.
Has anybody at the helm checked the stats on disabled folks in the Marianas Islands.
Link
There's a total of 260 of them who receive SSI disability, and another 5,218 who are covered through VA resources.
.
How about getting back to roots and helping those disabled folks lost in the maze and disabled in Virginia, the Carolinas, Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, or Florida(god forbid) and other US states directly?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Typhoon Soudelor starting to look like a cat 3 storm soon or higher
Quoting 175. nrtiwlnvragn:




Starting to look much better, if it can get rid of it's dry air problems, it'll gradually strengthen.

EDIT: Never trust satellite images.

Toxin warning extended downstream on Klamath River

A health advisory issued July 28 for Upper Klamath and Agency lakes is being extended down the Klamath River to the California state line, according to a news release.

The advisory, issued by the Oregon Health Authority’s Public Health Division, now includes Upper Klamath and Agency lakes, the Link River downstream to Lake Ewauna, and the Klamath River downstream to the California border, including the Keno area and J.C. Boyle Reservoir, according to the release.

The original advisory was issued after monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation and PacifiCorp confirmed the presence of blue-green algae toxins in the water bodies. These toxins, called cyanotoxins, are present at concentrations in the water that can be harmful to humans and animals.


Link

Nice shot from a few days back...

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Typhoon Soudelor will be a upper cat 3 storm soon!!
189. MahFL
Quoting 166. ColoradoBob1:



All Signs Indicate a New Monster El Niño Is Coming


I thought a strong El Nino was already present ?
Amazing...there's still names in here I remember. Howdy folks!
Quoting 190. Floodman:

Amazing...there's still names in here I remember. Howdy folks!
Hey, Flood!!! Great to see you here!
Record-breaking polar bear spurs climate change concerns

Thursday, August 6, 2015, 11:59 AM - A hungry and skinny polar bear in Norway is raising concerns about climate change after it broke the record for the longest underwater dive with a remarkable time of three minutes and 10 seconds.

The bear smashed a previous record of 72 seconds. It swam 45 to 50 metres without coming up for air in an effort to stalk three bearded seals. The event was recently published in the journal Polar Biology, highlighting the desperate measures polar bears must take to survive and the link between climate change and melting sea ice.


These pictures will make you sick

Taiwan radar

Link

Taiwanese terror
takes time trending terribly
towards total trouble.
I know the Sun angle is rising fast, but that Eye diameter has shrunk by a third in the viz loop

Quoting 189. MahFL:



I thought a strong El Nino was already present ?
But we are still under the Jurassic strength.
Good to be here Baha...how's things?
Quoting 195. Patrap:

I know the Sun angle is rising fast, but that Eye diameter has shrunk by a third in the viz loop


Another EWRC?
I wish this Taiwanese station was operating. Elevation 12,996 feet. Could get wild.
18Z NAVGEM finally showing a big wave exiting Africa at 180

Link
Quoting 202. BahaHurican:

Another EWRC?


Could be Baha...cept I just call um a "deep breath in and out", myself.

Seems She is ramping up in appearance and in T#'s as well.

Green now seen in the Funktop Imagery.





Quoting 198. Floodman:

Good to be here Baha...how's things?
Everything "on the quiet", as they say in these parts ... at least in the ATL .... the Pacific looks like it may be going for a record-breaking year in a variety of tropical ways .... lol...
Another tick upward at AUG 7 0000Z


Pretty dry in the Carribean...too
Quoting 206. BahaHurican:

Everything "on the quiet", as they say in these parts ... at least in the ATL .... the Pacific looks like it may be going for a record-breaking year in a variety of tropical ways .... lol...


And so goes an El Niño year...been meaning to come in and look around, see who still hangs out in here. Seen Tig lately?
Here in Puerto Rico, we are experiencing the worst drought in decades. So, I would like to know it there is a model (link) that could predict when will start raining... Literally we are going out with water reserves... the situation is critical
Quoting 190. Floodman:

Amazing...there's still names in here I remember. Howdy folks!
I remember you well, Flood. You used to post a lot back in the day I was just getting educated about tropical storms and models. I liked your posts a lot. What have you been up to?
Quoting 210. Chevito:

Here in Puerto Rico, we are experiencing the worst drought in decades. So, I would like to know it there is a model (link) that could predict when will start raining... Literally we are going out with water reserves... the situation is critical

There's really not such a model, and anything out more than 120 hours has a very low probability of being correct. Unfortunately, Puerto Rico and the entire Caribbean get very few tropical storms during El Nino years, and that seems to be the case this year. That doesn't mean there will be no tropical storms, and I suspect you'll see one sometime from late August to mid-September. That's just a total guess on my part though. It would be nice if there was some model that could answer your question, but it just doesn't exist.
Quoting 210. Chevito:

Here in Puerto Rico, we are experiencing the worst drought in decades. So, I would like to know it there is a model (link) that could predict when will start raining... Literally we are going out with water reserves... the situation is critical

Best chance for rain comes in the Fall.
I think its no surprise to any blogger on wunderground that the Atlantic Hurricane season was going to below normal. I mean the signals for El Nino were evident since late winter 2015. The SAL has not relented in years and the MDR region was much colder than normal. The Atlantic is showing a negative AMO signal presently. Which would be awesome for snow lovers in the Northeast part of our country. But I believe many of us could have forecasted 6-1o storms 1-4 hurricanes and 1 major. ITs not rocket science. Its just looking at all the data nad teleconnections and making your hypothesis/forecast.
Soudelor is back up to category 3 status at 105 knots in the 00z update:

13W SOUDELOR 150807 0000 21.9N 125.8E WPAC 105 944

Quoting 204. unknowncomic:

18Z NAVGEM finally showing a big wave exiting Africa at 180

Link
It's just one more in a number of healthy looking waves that have come off Africa only to die 48 hours later. Frankly, a prediction of a wave in 180 hours is almost useless today. If the wave really develops, and it still looks like a decent wave after 48 hours over water, then I'll start paying attention. Otherwise, it becomes another in the catalogue of dashed hopes.
Quoting 195. Patrap:

I know the Sun angle is rising fast, but that Eye diameter has shrunk by a third in the viz loop



This thing looks like a beast again. I wouldn't be surprised if its a CAT 3/4 right now, RAPID INTENSIFICATION
Quoting 201. Gearsts:


I imagine WKC will not agree, but it appears we can drive a stake through the remnants of ex-94L. This outcome was accurately predicted just by watching the convection ahead of ex-94L for the last two days as they completely collapsed upon entering the Death Zone. I'm still hoping the remnants will hold together well enough to bring some rain to the southern Windwards, but the look of ex-94L tonight doesn't hold out a lot of hope for that either. Just this whole thing of tracking a dead low for the last six days shows just how desperate some are becoming for a storm of any type.
Quoting 210. Chevito:

Here in Puerto Rico, we are experiencing the worst drought in decades. So, I would like to know it there is a model (link) that could predict when will start raining... Literally we are going out with water reserves... the situation is critical


Wow that bad. See some rain in San Juan on the report...maybe that'll help
Link
Quoting 211. sar2401:

I remember you well, Flood. You used to post a lot back in the day I was just getting educated about tropical storms and models. I liked your posts a lot. What have you been up to?


Thanks sar! Working, living...watching the weather and laughing at the models...same old stuff. How are you?
Quoting 220. Floodman:



Thanks sar! Working, living...watching the weather and laughing at the models...same old stuff. How are you?
I'm doing OK now, but had a pretty good scare after cataract surgery a couple of weeks ago that went wrong. I ended up in respiratory arrest and spent two days in ICU. Thank goodness for a good ER doc or I'd be dead. On top of the almost killing me thing, he didn't do the surgery right, so now I can't see as well from the eye he "fixed", and I see a halo around every light after dark. But, it could be worse, so I'm thankful for still being around and being able to sit here and post.
Dang, sar...glad your luck held out! Okay, I'm out, but I'll be back a little more frequently; my last time was 5 years ago, I think. Be seeing you!
223. JLPR2
Quoting 219. Starhopper:


Wow that bad. See some rain in San Juan on the report...maybe that'll help
Link


San Juan is on the north coast so 10 inches of rain could fall there and it wouldn't help any of the reservoirs, we need rain in the central area of the island.
The new face of climate change

Credit :
Arctic guide Rinie van Meurs.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
9:00 AM JST August 7 2015
=========================
In Minamitori-shima waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 21.4N 147.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 25.3N 145.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
9:00 AM JST August 7 2015
=========================
In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (945 hPa) located at 21.9N 125.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
300 NM from the center in northern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 23.9N 120.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Taiwan
48 HRS: 26.1N 117.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
72 HRS: 29.6N 116.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Dang. There's actually a bowing structured line of storms headed toward me. The tops are about 45,000 feet, unusually high for SE Alabama. I can already see the lightning, and the storms are about 35 miles away. The tops are tall enough I can see the cloud to cloud lightning near the tops. Pretty nifty for me. Now we'll see if they hold together or do an African tropical wave thing on me. :-)
Quoting 209. Floodman:



And so goes an El Niño year...been meaning to come in and look around, see who still hangs out in here. Seen Tig lately?

Hey Flood great to see ya , trust all is well , I will never forget how nice you treated when I first joined and explained to me things I was completely ignorant to! :)
Quoting 218. sar2401:

I imagine WKC will not agree, but it appears we can drive a stake through the remnants of ex-94L. This outcome was accurately predicted just by watching the convection ahead of ex-94L for the last two days as they completely collapsed upon entering the Death Zone. I'm still hoping the remnants will hold together well enough to bring some rain to the southern Windwards, but the look of ex-94L tonight doesn't hold out a lot of hope for that either. Just this whole thing of tracking a dead low for the last six days shows just how desperate some are becoming for a storm of any type.

Its gone finally, sorry I thought it might have brought some rain to Islands, hopefully they will get some rain soon!
Quoting 223. JLPR2:



San Juan is on the north coast so 10 inches of rain could fall there and it wouldn't help any of the reservoirs, we need rain in the central area of the island.
Link
lil all over..bout it. I'll plan a fishing trip there, it will rain for sure. ; )
Remember posters on here saying I was wrong about SAL outbreaks off Africa. I think Naga needs to stick to climate change.

From DR. Phil Klotzbach

In addition, the tropical Atlantic has been cooler than normal over the past few months. Cooler than normal waters mean less fuel for developing storms, as well as generating pressure gradient patterns that typically drive stronger low- and mid-level winds, promoting dry air outbreaks from Africa. The first figure below shows how much cooler the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are than they have been over the past twenty years, which were typically associated with active hurricane seasons. The second figure below shows mid-level moisture anomalies across the Atlantic, which are much drier than normal:

Here is what I posted earlier. Dr. Phil's post above.

Well Naga is wrong too. Stronger El-Nino produces higher pressures across the Atlantic & lower pressures across the Pacific leading to strong SAL Outbreaks off Africa. Again winds increase as high pressure air moves toward the much lower pressure air in the Pacific. These increased Easterly Winds push thicker SAL across the MDR hence lowering SST's due to the milky haze. Seems pretty straight forward reasoning.

Great illustration of this using the Euro model




Quoting 210. Chevito:

Here in Puerto Rico, we are experiencing the worst drought in decades. So, I would like to know it there is a model (link) that could predict when will start raining... Literally we are going out with water reserves... the situation is critical



And your bankrupt , so the government has zero dollars to do anything meaningful. Be glad your not in San Paulo , 22 million there in the same boat . Your drought runs from South Florida all the way to the bottom of South America :

They Make Water Out of Sludge in Sao Paulo Now


With El Nino settling into a strong-to-monstrous mode and with the world now baking under 1 C of global temperature increases since the 1880s, a large swath from South American through to the Caribbean is suffering from extreme drought.

Link

Good luck you're going to need it.


Batten down the hatches.



Japan in Hot Water — Longest Heatwave on Record for Tokyo, Tens of Thousands Hospitalized

This morning, at 10:53 AM local time in Tokyo, the temperature was a sweltering 95.2 F (35.1 C) and climbing…

For six days running thermometers in that city have been above 95 degrees F (35 C). That’s the longest unbroken string of 95 degree + highs Japan’s capital has experienced since record-keeping began 140 years ago in 1875. In other words, parts of Japan are experiencing never-seen-before heat.


Link
I hope Soudelor doesn't pull a Rammasun and RI before landfall in a spot where typhoons don't usually RI.....
Quoting 235. Starhopper:


Batten down the hatches.


Soon they'll be completely under the CDO... and things go downhill from there ...
244. vis0
Tropical Tenacity 201508-07;0000UTC
image host
is there a possibility of a Fujiwhara effect between TD 15 and Soudelor?
It's obvious what would win but yeah..
they seem pretty close
Dear Dr. Rood -

A new op-ed from the Wall Street Journal , this ties into your last 3 posts , nicely . Why ? Because so much of the deni-o-sphere is one op-ed after another. Not papers, not studies, but paid liars writing about papers , studies, and events. And it's no accident that the Daily Mail and the Wall Street Journal are both owned y News Corp.

As I said before , the Daily Mail is where sewer begins, and after barely cleaning the stink of the sludge it pops out as op-eds in the Wall Street Journal.

They are really scared of the Pope's move. This op-ed is well written . And it's title ties into a theme they continue to advance, that climate science is "cult".

The Religion of Climate Change
Lending the power of the pulpit to the cause of environmental politics.


Link
Quoting 226. sar2401:

Dang. There's actually a bowing structured line of storms headed toward me. The tops are about 45,000 feet, unusually high for SE Alabama. I can already see the lightning, and the storms are about 35 miles away. The tops are tall enough I can see the cloud to cloud lightning near the tops. Pretty nifty for me. Now we'll see if they hold together or do an African tropical wave thing on me. :-)
Nice storm for this late at night in August. Had nearly insane Florida level lightning as the line passed through. There was enough lightning that we'd get a C to G strike and then C to C so we'd get Fujiwhara effect thunder coming at us. Only 13 mph winds and it's still 78 out there. I'm surprised we didn't have better cooling from outflow winds. Got about 0.65" so far and it's still raining lightly. Good storm in terms of rain rates not being excessive, so most of the rain is soaking in. I've had 0.80" today including the little storm we had overnight. Two nocturnal storms in a row is pretty rare for us, but I'll take the rain any way it wants to come down.
Quoting 228. stormpetrol:


Its gone finally, sorry I thought it might have brought some rain to Islands, hopefully they will get some rain soon!
Yeah, I was hoping it would hold together well enough to at least bring the Islands some rain, but it's reduced to a swirl now, so that doesn't look likely. You can really see the effect of the dry air on the low in the water vapor loop. For many storms, especially weak ones, dry air is a bigger impediment than shear or SAL. Combined with the almost complete lack of vertical instability in the Caribbean, the area is going to remain a storm graveyard until things change. That will change, but not in the near future.

If worse comes to worse guys we could track ULLs [speaking of the Atlantic]

lol xD
Quoting 224. ColoradoBob1:

The new face of climate change

Credit :
Arctic guide Rinie van Meurs.






This bear picture as gotten to me. And not one person as commented on it And I’ve been spreading . A lion takes 40 hours to die, this is taking the entire melt season of 2015.

This whole mess has finally crushed my heart.
Quoting 231. StormTrackerScott:

Remember posters on here saying I was wrong about SAL outbreaks off Africa. I think Naga needs to stick to climate change.

From DR. Phil Klotzbach

In addition, the tropical Atlantic has been cooler than normal over the past few months. Cooler than normal waters mean less fuel for developing storms, as well as generating pressure gradient patterns that typically drive stronger low- and mid-level winds, promoting dry air outbreaks from Africa. The first figure below shows how much cooler the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are than they have been over the past twenty years, which were typically associated with active hurricane seasons. The second figure below shows mid-level moisture anomalies across the Atlantic, which are much drier than normal:

Here is what I posted earlier. Dr. Phil's post above.

Well Naga is wrong too. Stronger El-Nino produces higher pressures across the Atlantic & lower pressures across the Pacific leading to strong SAL Outbreaks off Africa. Again winds increase as high pressure air moves toward the much lower pressure air in the Pacific. These increased Easterly Winds push thicker SAL across the MDR hence lowering SST's due to the milky haze. Seems pretty straight forward reasoning.

Great illustration of this using the Euro model







You have provided zero evidence to support your claim. SST are lower due to SAL, yes. Increased SAL is due to Sahel drought which is correlated to El Nino events, but of the previous year..."Therefore, it is possible that if precipitation changes in the Sahel alter West African dust outbreaks, then this variability in rainfall may be the cause of our observed correlations. However, it has been shown that, at least for the summertime months, interannual changes in dustiness over the North Atlantic are related to changes in Sahel precipitation from the previous year and are not strongly correlated with same%u2013year Sahel precipitation events " Link

I have now shown multiple papers that refute your point, and you have provided none. I think instead of telling me to stick to climate change, you may want to start reading some papers instead of making it up as you go along.
We deserve what's coning .
The first GOP presidential debate is over with no mention whatsoever of climate change. That is why it looks like I'll be voting for Bernie Sanders.
Young Conservatives Press G.O.P. Presidential Debaters to Wise Up on Energy Nathan? Cody? Jed? Your thoughts please.

Looks like Cody just answered ;)

My view in comment #1216 of my blog.

Quoting 233. ColoradoBob1:



.... Your drought runs from South Florida all the way to the bottom of South America :

Bob,

There's actually been quite a lot of precipitation down toward southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina recently. Though you are correct to say that Sao Paulo is still in deficit.  LINK


Go look at the LANCE MODIS -

Sand storm after sand storm -

The desert in North Africa is spitting out sand storms in every direction.

Dust storm in central Algeria

Link

Dust storm over Morocco

Link

Dust storm in southern Algeria
(afternoon overpass)

Link

If you don't think that all this sand isn't changing things. I have a condo in Syria I would like to sell you. And all the studies one sites are part of the past. We have crossed the Rubicon.
Quoting 226. sar2401:
Dang. There's actually a bowing structured line of storms headed toward me. The tops are about 45,000 feet, unusually high for SE Alabama. I can already see the lightning, and the storms are about 35 miles away. The tops are tall enough I can see the cloud to cloud lightning near the tops. Pretty nifty for me. Now we'll see if they hold together or do an African tropical wave thing on me. :-)

Time for this oldie but goodie :)


Quoting 237. Articuno:

I hope Soudelor doesn't pull a Rammasun and RI before landfall in a spot where typhoons don't usually RI.....
RI = ??
Quoting 259. rayduray2013:
RI = ??

Rapid Intensification
Quoting 256. rayduray2013:


Bob,

There's actually been quite a lot of precipitation down toward southern Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina recently. Though you are correct to say that Sao Paulo is still in deficit.  LINK





Many thanks for that , but it's just like the Texas drought, 800 year old trees were ripped out of river bank when the drought ended.

"As a system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes."
Quoting 251. ColoradoBob1:

This bear picture as gotten to me. And not one person as commented on it And I%u2019ve been spreading . A lion takes 40 hours to die, this is taking the entire melt season of 2015.

This whole mess has finally crushed my heart.

Bob,

That certainly is the skinniest polar bear I've ever seen. Somehow it reminded me of that infamous Mariah Carey quote which turned out to be just another Internet hoax. "When I watch TV and see those poor starving kids all over the world, I can't help but cry. I mean, I'd love to be skinny like that, but not with all those flies and death and stuff."

Bob, it's possible that people held back from responding to your comment and the image because Photoshopping is ubiquitous on the Intertubes. Just sayin'.... in our virtual world, seein' isn't believin'. :)
July 2015’s monthly average CO2 at Mauna Loa is 401.30 ppm (+2.30 over same time last year), we see no evidence yet that mankind is making any progress on getting the carbon balance back on target
Bush at least is a centrist. Mentioned renewable energy and how we are missing the bus. We will see him come out with a comprehensive plan that addresses AGW at some point. When it comes to immigration, energy, climate, and many other issues he's far more in step with factual realities than the Far Right.
Quoting 263. rayduray2013:


Bob,

That certainly is the skinniest polar bear I've ever seen. Somehow it reminded me of that infamous Mariah Carey quote which turned out to be just another Internet hoax. "When
I watch TV and see those poor starving kids all over the world, I can't
help but cry. I mean, I'd love to be skinny like that, but not with all
those flies and death and stuff."


Bob, it's possible that people held back from responding to your comment and the image because Photoshopping is ubiquitous on the Intertubes. Just sayin'.... in our virtual world, seein' isn't believin'. :)



That bear is dying . Sometimes what we see is really really real. There's clip of his efforts to catch food. If you think that's photoshopped , I got a condo Ramadi I want to sell you.

Quoting 263. rayduray2013:

Watch the clip -

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/re cord-breaking-polar-bear-spurs-climate-change-conc erns/55349/Record-breaking polar bear spurs climate change concerns
Seems to me that STS doesn't grasp the possibility that Dr. Klotzbach's "dry air outbreaks from Africa" may not be synonymous with "Saharan dust".

Those two phenomena may well be correlated, but they are certainly not identical. Therefore, it seems quite possible that this year's El Nino might be responsible for more dry air in the MDR, while at the same time, last year's climate is responsible for the magnitude of the current year's dust, as the studies quoted by Naga seem to show.

Dr. Klotzbach's second map lends support as well. Notice that most of the dry air is in the central MDR and in the Caribbean, while there is very little dry air over central Africa and just off the African coast. If El Nino really was the only driver of dust from Africa, then one would expect to see a stronger dry air signature over central Africa and just off the coast. Since that is contrary to what the map shows, it probably indicates something a bit more complex is at work here than just the response to the current El Nino..

There are many documented examples of common sense reasoning giving the wrong explanation for what appears to be a "simple" physical phenomenon, but which is in reality quite complex. And in some cases, common sense reasoning even misleads world-renown scientists who really should know better.

So when common sense reasoning conflicts with a scientific study, the smart money goes with the science.
Quoting 258. BaltimoreBrian:


Time for this oldie but goodie :)


LOL. So true most of the time. This line of storms seems to have produced a tornado over in Troy, about 30 miles west of me. The Walmart there apparently took a good hit. Birmingham put out a "Significant Weather Advisory" at 10:32 for a strong thunderstorm over Troy, and put out the tornado warning just seven minutes later. The tornado warning ran from 10:39 until 11:15 and was then allowed to expire. There are some more storms to the NW of me now, and they all tops of 35,000 feet, so they might hold together until they get here. Very unusual weather for me in August.
Quoting 222. Floodman:

Dang, sar...glad your luck held out! Okay, I'm out, but I'll be back a little more frequently; my last time was 5 years ago, I think. Be seeing you!
Good to see you posting again...I was wondering where ya went..Had a few big storms during your absence from the blog...Hope you are well..:)

Quoting 260. BaltimoreBrian:


Rapid Intensification
Thanks. Noted. :)
Quoting 179. LBAR:

LOL! They changed their predictions? When are they going to admit they can't predict diddly-squat, much less tell me how "hot" the Earth will be 50 years from now.


About the same time you admit you know diddly squat about physics, math, chemistry, software engineering, etc.

Quoting 268. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 263. rayduray2013:

Watch the clip -

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/re cord-breaking-polar-bear-spurs-climate-change-conc erns/55349/Record-breaking polar bear spurs climate change concerns
Bob,

I watched the clip. It's convinced me that the orca is going to become the top predator in the Arctic Sea. Polar bears are going to interbred with grizzlies. Hopefully they'll develop a taste for Canadian Conservatives.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

Nice storm for this late at night in August. Had nearly insane Florida level lightning as the line passed through. There was enough lightning that we'd get a C to G strike and then C to C so we'd get Fujiwhara effect thunder coming at us. Only 13 mph winds and it's still 78 out there. I'm surprised we didn't have better cooling from outflow winds. Got about 0.65" so far and it's still raining lightly. Good storm in terms of rain rates not being excessive, so most of the rain is soaking in. I've had 0.80" today including the little storm we had overnight. Two nocturnal storms in a row is pretty rare for us, but I'll take the rain any way it wants to come down.

I got nearly 2 inches in my rain gauge (I live near EAMC), mostly within about a twenty minute time frame, and the lightning was almost continuous for a while, in eerie bright blue flashes. Wish I could have seen those cloud tops with their light show as you did, one of my favorite things to see - from a proper distance, of course.
It's surprising that Taipei Airport is already reporting winds of 33 gusting to 50 mph. The Island isn't really even in the CDO of the storm yet.
Already sad news from Taiwan :-(

Girl dies as typhoon bears down on Taiwan
Last Updated: Friday, August 7, 2015 - 11:11
Taipei: An eight-year-old girl died after being swept out to sea off Taiwan as Typhoon Soudelor bore down on the island, forcing thousands to flee and troops to be placed on standby, officials said Friday.
Billed as the biggest typhoon of the year earlier in the week, Soudelor has since weakened but authorities warned it may strengthen once more before making landfall.
More than 2,000 people have already been relocated from Taiwan`s outlying islands, popular with tourists, and troops were preparing to help more residents move from their homes into shelters.
In two coastal counties -- Yilan and Hualien -- offices and schools shut down Friday morning with more counties, mainly in the north and east, expected to follow suit later in the day.
Some flights out of Taiwan were also cancelled.
The young girl became the first casualty of the impending storm after she was swept out to sea in eastern Yilan county on Thursday, authorities said.
Another child was also missing in the same incident, while a 38-year-old woman and another girl survived. ...
Quoting 251. ColoradoBob1:





This bear picture as gotten to me. And not one person as commented on it And I’ve been spreading . A lion takes 40 hours to die, this is taking the entire melt season of 2015.

This whole mess has finally crushed my heart.



People may not comment because there may not be much to say?

I certainly will say my eyes watered up. That bear is not enjoying life. We should be doing More to protect our ecosystems.


Surprising but not surprising on GOP not doing much on that front. we need decisive action to reduce carbon emissions ASAP if we don't want the status quo to become more unpredictable.
Quoting 253. ColoradoBob1:

We deserve what's coning .

yeah, but they dont.


Little sideglance to our weather in Germany today: As temps should soar to the upper thirties Celsius (around 100F) today (forecast map above), it's not out of question that our new national heat record set in July 5 with 40,3C (104,54F) in Kitzingen might be in danger somewhere today, umm. I'll keep you updated, of course. I got up very early this morning to let some sort of fresher air into our rooms before I'll have to shut and darken the windows as protection of the heat ...

Storms are forecast (and already happening) in the northwest. I hope some of them will reach our drought stricken regions further to the east later this weekend.



Current discussion from Estofex. Synoptic situation will feature a trough over the Atlantic and a ridge stretching from the Mediterranean towards NW Russia with hot, tropical airmass covering much of SW, W and Central Europe. In between of these two features, strong SW-ly flow will be observed along the frontal zone separating tropical from polar airmass. This zone will become a focus for severe DMC (= deep moist convection) during the forecast period. Another focus for DMC will be a very persistent, shallow mid to upper tropospheric low over the Ionian Sea.

European map for this evening (GFS):

Morning from our overcast and pink Saharan dusty skied Spain.

I see that the Pacific storm count is back up to 5 with the new addition south of Japan. ACE sure must be getting high in the Pacific by now.



Morning Plaza. Yes, SAL in full swing for you and some of it even reaches my place:


Little fish "Ex-94L" at our CaribBoy's dry doorsteps (hopefully). Saved pic. Source.
Quoting 282. barbamz:

Morning Plaza. Yes, SAL in full swing for you and some of it even reaches my place:



Yes we have a massive amount of SAL in the air over us today.
Plus there are big fires in Extramadura to the north of me with several villages evacuated.



Link
This developing heatwave across Europe is quite worrisome. In the next 8 days, Berlin has only 1 day below 90 which is 86 Sunday. Next 8 days is 101-94-86-93-90-91-91-98.

Stay cool barb....
Quoting 287. largeeyes:

This developing heatwave across Europe is quite worrisome. In the next 8 days, Berlin has only 1 day below 90 which is 86 Sunday. Next 8 days is 101-94-86-93-90-91-91-98.
Stay cool barb....

Sure, Largeeyes. Here some icecream for you under your hot roof :-)


Updating map with rising temps in Germany for all who'd like to watch the chase. Edit: I saved the map at the end of the day.

Edit: More current readings from official DWD stations here (every hour):
http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/messwerte/deutschl and/temperatur.html
Famous record-town Kitzingen just had 35,6 degrees Celsius (96F) at 11 h summertime, and many more hours to go. Looks "promising" for a new record reading this afternoon, if not some clouds move in. What a crazy summer!
Thanks barb. I have a garden hose hooked to the shower and it leads out onto the terrace. So we're keep cool one way or another!
Hehe, cool construction, largeeyes! Same thing at my place until last year my landlord allowed a faucet outside for the irrigation of my quite large backyard balcony :-)
ex94...very.interesting
294. MahFL
Quoting 267. ColoradoBob1:



That bear is dying .




The dead bear will provide food for other animals, it won't be the first or last bear to die.
Quoting 218. sar2401:

I imagine WKC will not agree, but it appears we can drive a stake through the remnants of ex-94L. This outcome was accurately predicted just by watching the convection ahead of ex-94L for the last two days as they completely collapsed upon entering the Death Zone. I'm still hoping the remnants will hold together well enough to bring some rain to the southern Windwards, but the look of ex-94L tonight doesn't hold out a lot of hope for that either. Just this whole thing of tracking a dead low for the last six days shows just how desperate some are becoming for a storm of any type.


From what I can currently see ex-94L disagrees with you ex-94L blowing up convection again and probably for the last time too maybe but it's still alive as of right now

sfc charts indicate its location to be near 15.0N 58W/59W looking on satellite looks more like 16N 59W

Ex-94L has increased in poleward motion

I see two outcomes
It continues W into the Caribbean and goes all the way
It moves NW then WNW then W clipping the NE Caribbean into Bahamas Florida area and into the GOM

So far 94L is having a good run even when it was officially deactivated and it's still going lets not do any driving the stake and just 94L do it itself if that's what it wants

I'm not gonna let go of it till two things happen
1 convection decreases and dissipates and NOT redevelop
2 lose its LLC and whole low level structure dissipates

That is when a system is truly dead
Watch it ! could EX94L be another Andrew?
First recorded incident of a polar bear eating dolphins.

Link
Quoting 297. stoormfury:

Watch it ! could EX94L be another Andrew?

I really hope you are being sarcastic here.
Quoting 294. MahFL:



The dead bear will provide food for other animals, it won't be the first or last bear to die.

There's food on that bear?!?
Quoting 276. HurrMichaelOrl:

It's surprising that Taipei Airport is already reporting winds of 33 gusting to 50 mph. The Island isn't really even in the CDO of the storm yet.


Good morning! Hope everyone has been and is doing well. It's been a very long time since I've posted in the blog. Been overwhelmingly busy building my business.

That aside, I just simply wanted to note that it's not that unusual to see winds of the aforementioned intensity in the outermost rainbands of large and intense TCs-such as this one. As a veteran of 27 different TCs of hurricane strength, I've found it to be far more likely rather than being something atypical, in this particular scenario. Moreover, one could also expect to see gusts to hurricane-force as the CDO moves into the area...preceding the eyewall.
Quoting 296. wunderkidcayman:



From what I can currently see ex-94L disagrees with you ex-94L blowing up convection again and probably for the last time too maybe but it's still alive as of right now

sfc charts indicate its location to be near 15.0N 58W/59W looking on satellite looks more like 16N 59W

Ex-94L has increased in poleward motion

I see two outcomes
It continues W into the Caribbean and goes all the way
It moves NW then WNW then W clipping the NE Caribbean into Bahamas Florida area and into the GOM

So far 94L is having a good run even when it was officially deactivated and it's still going lets not do any driving the stake and just 94L do it itself if that's what it wants

I'm not gonna let go of it till two things happen
1 convection decreases and dissipates and NOT redevelop
2 lose its LLC and whole low level structure dissipates

That is when a system is truly dead
There is a third outcome. The 1012 mb low just dissipates. That's what's being shown on the surface chart this morning. You keep tracking it though, and let us know when you think it's finally dead. There sure isn't much else to look at in the Atlantic right now.
304. MahFL
All bar two counties in Taiwan are now closed for work and classes. So they do hunker down for strong typhoons.

http://www.dgpa.gov.tw/ndse.html
Quoting 275. Alagirl:


I got nearly 2 inches in my rain gauge (I live near EAMC), mostly within about a twenty minute time frame, and the lightning was almost continuous for a while, in eerie bright blue flashes. Wish I could have seen those cloud tops with their light show as you did, one of my favorite things to see - from a proper distance, of course.
The Auburn/Opelika area got several rounds of storms yesterday, hence your higher total. I just got the one line, and the cells were weakening almost right over my head, as usual. The lightning display was really neat though. You probably could have seen the tops of these storms over in Opelika, since they were about equidistant from you and me for a time. It looks like one fairly isolated and late forming cell produced a tornado in Troy judging by the pictures I've seen. It's also possible another weak tornado touched down in Russell County, although I suspect that was more likely to be straight line winds. Pretty active couple of nights for us, and I'm hoping for another thunderstorm today. Now Birmingham has issued another heat advisory that doesn't include our counties. We are apparently going to be having a cool wave I hadn't heard about. :-)

EDIT: Picture of the damage at the Walmart store in Troy. There were at least three people injured seriously enough to be transported to the hospital, considerable damage to other stores in the Walmart shopping center, and multiple semis flipped over in the parking lot. Seems pretty likely this was the result of a tornado, something we don't often see in early August.



Is this another EWRC beginning to take shape in Soudelor’s core?  If that is another eye developing it looks to be spanning 2 whole degrees in latitude with the smaller eye within dissipating.


雷達回波圖
Well another 100 degree day in el paso. ...yesterday's 103 either set or tied a record....we're still below our yearly average of 100 degree weather. ..However it's lasting later in the season.....average weather temps are 93 this time of year
Rise and shine folks, gonna be another scorcher out there

Houston, TX
Lest we should forget, the blog is about this:-

Link

I managed to click on some winds at about the 100 MPH mark.
Probably about 6 hours to landfall.

Should still be running winds of about 100 MPH in the night there of course.
Below is 6 hours from now.

Link
Quoting 308. RitaEvac:

Rise and shine folks, gonna be another scorcher out there

Houston, TX





I feel for you Rita and I'm guessing you have a lot of humidity to go with that heat....at least for us its a dry heat
SYNOPSIS 2015080600

P17L
12N, 52W
925 hPa

P17L might be a reincarnation of P10L/94L. Because of the temporal gap, and the fact that P10L would have been required to slow considerably for the last few days, there is enough uncertainty that I initiate this as a new pouch.


ECMWF: This low-level 925-hPa pouch is small but quite distinct for the first day, then it quickly dissipates.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, tracking a little faster and lasting slightly longer as a distinct pouch than in ECMWF.

Good Morning. Latest RAMBB image and advisory on the Typhoon headed into Taiwan:

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

Not much more intensification forecast (to 115 knots) which is good news and they note the dry air swatch on the loops:


WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 18 NM EYE WITH SYMMETRICAL BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY. WHILE THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE RIGHT OVER THE SYSTEM HELPING TO
OFFSET ANY DEGRADATION IN INTENSITY. A 070618Z AMSU-B PARTIAL IMAGE
SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF INCREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES.
TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS DUE TO
GOOD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. JUST
AFTER TAU 12, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL TAIWAN
AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE CHUNGYANG RANGE
BEFORE RE-EMERGING IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU 24.
Quoting 289. largeeyes:

Thanks barb. I have a garden hose hooked to the shower and it leads out onto the terrace. So we're keep cool one way or another!


Afternoon SAL story.
Yesterday I hung washing out to dry on my roof terrace and left it out overnight.
This morning after a slightly breezy night I went to collect it. The washing collection bucket which is a large builders bucket about 50 cms or 20 inches in diameter had been left out on the terrace and had a total covering of pin/brown dust in it, some of the grains were perceivably large enough to see.
This is SAL product, probably about a teaspoon full of dust just in one bucket.
All the cars in the street were coved in pinky brown dust, some with large marks on them from water drops.
The amount of dust just in weight must be hundreds of thousands of tons spread over a massive area reaching from Gibraltar to Germany.
Visibility due to the dust is down to about 8 miles/11 kms, we have no cloud or mist cover today, just dust cover!
Note if it gets wet it makes nasty pink mud.
Here are the current expectations for the Typhoon per a Taiwanese news source:

Taipei, Aug. 6 (CNA) Wind and rain are expected to pick up in eastern and northeastern Taiwan Friday afternoon as Typhoon Soudelor approaches, the Central Weather Bureau said, adding that southern Taiwan will feel the storm's full impact Saturday. Sixteen cities and counties are warned of extremely torrential rain or extremely heavy rain when the typhoon sweeps across Taiwan from the east, the bureau said. The regions in Taiwan proper where extremely torrential rain -- an accumulation of 350 millimeters of precipitation or more in 24 hours -- is expected include: Yilan County, Hualien County, Taitung County, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Taichung City, Nantou County, Kaohsiung City and Pingtung County. The regions where extremely heavy rain is forecast -- 200 millimeters or more in 24 hours -- include Taipei City, Keelung City, Yunlin County, Chiayi County and Tainan City. The CWB issued a land warning for Soudelor late Thursday, warning of strong gusts and heavy rainfall as the storm is expected to pummel the island late Friday and Saturday. The outer rim of the typhoon could begin to cover eastern Taiwan Friday afternoon while the typhoon center is expected to make landfall in Hualien or Taitung in the wee hours of Saturday.
Here is the current time in Taiwan for reference; they are 12 hours ahead of us (already 9:00 PM on Friday there):

  1. 9:02 PMFriday, August 7, 2015 (GMT+8)Time in Taiwan
And finally the latest loop from NOAA: clearly a direct hit at this point with the Capitol in the NE quad at landfall

The impact has begun in Taiwan.

Funktop Loop

The forecast for slight intensification prior to landfall might verify based upon the current eyewall presentation in the last frames; that large area of deep convection on the south side is trying to wrap around it seems.
320. vis0
image host
When time ID numbers change to yellow, next frames might be missing or satellite reconfiguration occurred
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 22:59:37 N Lon : 123:39:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 934.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -58.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON

Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 191km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.0 degrees



15W now has an international typhoon name.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (1514)
21:00 PM JST August 7 2015
=========================
In Ogasawara waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Molave (1000 hPa) located at 23.6N 146.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 26.6N 143.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) east southeast of Chichi-jima
48 HRS: 28.6N 141.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) north northwest of Chichi-jima
72 HRS: 30.6N 141.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South Of Japan
Basra, Iraq, 10-day Wunderground forecast:



A bit of a cooldown on Thursday should bring relief before the temperatures slowly rise again... ;-)

(FWIW, the average July/August high there is a relatively pleasant 107.)
The pressure was lowered since the 0900 AM UTC advisory.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #69
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
21:00 PM JST August 7 2015
=========================
About 160 KM South of Iriomote Island (Okinawa Prefecture)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (935 hPa) located at 22.9N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
130 NM from the center in northern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
325 NM from the center in northern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 25.1N 119.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
48 HRS: 27.8N 116.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
72 HRS: 31.4N 117.1E - Tropical Depression Overland Near Yangtze River
nvrmnd
something to do with bathtub toys

geeesh
Quoting 325. aquak9:

If there is a MOD lurking- or ANYONE-

Can someone please tell me WHY Beell's blog has been banned???

Is this in ERROR??

If this is a delicate issue, feel free to WU-mail me.

Try going to it again, I was able to post in it just now.
Quoting 323. Neapolitan:

Basra, Iraq, 10-day Wunderground forecast:



A bit of a cooldown on Thursday should bring relief before the temperatures slowly rise again... ;-)

(FWIW, the average July high there is a relatively pleasant 107.)


What about August?
I'm not too concerned for Taipei, the infrastructure there is sound and they're somewhat protected with a ridge to the east. Their biggest risk is flooding due to excessive rainfall which hopefully won't be a huge event considering the speed of the storm. Hua-lien City on the other hand is on the coast and may take a direct hit from the northern eyewall. Their infrastructure is sound as well and the coast line offers a natural buffer from storm surge but not so much where a "perfect storm" wouldn't send a surge into the city causing extensive damage. There are no barrier island developments like we have in the states so you aren't going to see complete devastation with huge areas of houses swept off their foundations like you do here.

If we see massive casualties in Taiwan, it's going to be in the mountains somewhere from a landslide. Luckily, they don't have massive deforestation issues so it's not as likely as it would be if the same storm was making landfall in the Caribbean somewhere.
Seems clouds are going to keep Berlin from hitting 40 today. almost 4pm and ranging from 36-37. My apartment is 32-34. I don't have many clothes on.
Did we ever get a clear answer yesterday about whether El Niño is causing the SAL this year or other factors? Thx.
Quoting 331. Bucsboltsfan:

Did we ever get a clear answer yesterday about whether El Niño is causing the SAL this year or other factors? Thx.

How about: 'El Niño sucks' ? Or: pulls.
Quoting 331. Bucsboltsfan:

Did we ever get a clear answer yesterday about whether El Niño is causing the SAL this year or other factors? Thx.


I do not know how the enso phases affect SAL levels (Neutral-El Nino-La Nina) but SAL is a permanent feature from Africa and correlated to rainfall levels in the African Sahel. Generally speaking, the more rain there (and convection) during the Summer, the more robust waves we see rolling off the coast that help "push back" the SAL levels along the wave route across the Atlantic and when conditions are dryer in Africa, we see huge SAL plumes into the Atlantic. The answer to your question is probably related to the issue of how a particular enso phase impacts rainfall levels in the Sahel region and also related to the factors that impact drought in Africa.

The Saharan Air Layer, or known more commonly as Saharan Dust, is a layer of tiny aerosols like sand, dirt, and dust that occasionally push from east to west across the tropical Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season. These aerosols originate over the very hot and dry deserts of Africa, like the Saharan Desert, and sometimes get picked up by African Easterly Waves which push westward from Africa into the Atlantic Ocean.


Incidentally, here are the current SAL levels at the moment and wave activity on that continent:

Quoting 317. weathermanwannabe:

And finally the latest loop from NOAA: clearly a direct hit at this point with the Capitol in the NE quad at landfall





Well the only good thing I see is that the eye will landfall in an area that is sparsely populated compared to the northern and southern ends of the island. Also the storm will have to traverse some 10,000 ft+ peaks so the circulation will get torn up before it reaches the densely populated west coast. Oh and it didn't manage to RI right up to landfall...
Quoting 296. wunderkidcayman:



From what I can currently see ex-94L disagrees with you ex-94L blowing up convection again and probably for the last time too maybe but it's still alive as of right now

sfc charts indicate its location to be near 15.0N 58W/59W looking on satellite looks more like 16N 59W

Ex-94L has increased in poleward motion

I see two outcomes
It continues W into the Caribbean and goes all the way
It moves NW then WNW then W clipping the NE Caribbean into Bahamas Florida area and into the GOM

So far 94L is having a good run even when it was officially deactivated and it's still going lets not do any driving the stake and just 94L do it itself if that's what it wants

I'm not gonna let go of it till two things happen
1 convection decreases and dissipates and NOT redevelop
2 lose its LLC and whole low level structure dissipates

That is when a system is truly dead

IT CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN THAT EX 94 l WILL GO NORTH EAST OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS, INFLUENCED BY THE WINDS FROM THE WEST
Quoting 323. Neapolitan:

Basra, Iraq, 10-day Wunderground forecast:



A bit of a cooldown on Thursday should bring relief before the temperatures slowly rise again... ;-)

(FWIW, the average July/August high there is a relatively pleasant 107.)

They are only over 50/c for 5 out of the next 10 days! down to the upper 40s for the rest of the time. Hell?

Link

Meanwhile the whole of the Persian Gulf waters look too hot to sustain life, especially the southern part which is now white on the SST map.
I will be out of town tomorrow but Sat will be my 9th year anniversary on this Blog (I missed the 2005 season). Just want to say that I have learned a lot from Dr. Masters, the newest addition Mr. Henson, and from the knowledgeable Bloggers on here both past and present (and missing some of the past better ones like Gulfscottsman who took the time to help me out with links so that I could better understand tropical weather issues).

May all the good and courteous bloggers on here Live Long and Prosper, along with Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson, to continue to make this blog an informed forum on important weather issues and a "go to" site for tropical storm information and analysis.
338. MahFL
Quite a bit of grey now :

News continue in PR related to the stupidity of the Government and other idiots in terms of seeding the clouds for the artificial making of rain. rain
340. beell
To the great disappointment of many, I am back from BanLand. And I am suitably chastened and deeply remorseful for my transgressions against the WUcommunity.

The punishment was appropriate for the crime-so all is good!

Quoting 311. ncstorm:

SYNOPSIS 2015080600

P17L
12N, 52W
925 hPa

P17L might be a reincarnation of P10L/94L. Because of the temporal gap, and the fact that P10L would have been required to slow considerably for the last few days, there is enough uncertainty that I initiate this as a new pouch.


ECMWF: This low-level 925-hPa pouch is small but quite distinct for the first day, then it quickly dissipates.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, tracking a little faster and lasting slightly longer as a distinct pouch than in ECMWF.

where is p16L
MUCH LESS SAL right now!!
That would be the final field burning before the ITCZ moves south and planting season begins. Burning this late in the season is discouraged since the fires burn a little hotter now and can scorch tree bark. On the plus side, it knocks back the 3 meter high grass, makes it easy to find snakes, and the ash fertilizes the leached tropic soils.

I loved being in central Africa during the dry season, it was like being on (what I picture) Mars to be like - red, barren soil everywhere but with amazing smoke-induced red sunrises and sunsets. And then boom, the rains start and everything turns green and lush.

Fires have been part of the landscape in central Africa for the last 1100 years of Bantu society, without the widespread fires, the miombo forest wouldn't exist.

Quoting 174. ColoradoBob1:

Fires in South Central Africa -

Aqua/MODIS
2015/218
08/06/2015
12:00 UTC

Link
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Infrared satellite data, along with VIIRS moonlight visible imagery
and a just received AMSR-2 overpass, show that Hilda is maintaining
strong convection near the center. However, the system continues to
have a sheared appearence, which is somewhat surprising since the
available data show less than 10 kt of shear. The various satellite
intensity estimates range between 45-55 kt, so the initial intensity
remains 50 kt. The cirrus outflow is good to the west and poor to
the east.

The initial motion is 275/11. For the next 48-72 hours, Hilda
should be steered westward to west-northwestward by the deep-layer
subtropical ridge to its north. After that time, a mid- to
upper-level low is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian
Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn northwestward and
north-northwestward. The track guidance again generally agrees
on this scenario, but there remains a significant spread in how
sharply Hilda will turn based on the strength of the cyclone after
72 hours. The GFS, GFDL, and GFDN, which depict a stronger cyclone,
have sharper turns and end up on the east side of the guidance
envelope. The ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean forecast a weaker
Hilda, and they show a more westward motion. The UKMET and the
various consensus models are between these extremes. The new
forecast track, which is little changed from the previous track,
follows this part of the guidance.

The dynamical models are in good agreement that whatever shear is
occurring should diminish in 24 hours or less. This should allow a
faster rate of development, with Hilda forecast to become a
hurricane in 24-36 hours and reach its peak intensity in 48-72
hours. After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong
southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and this combination should cause significant
weakening. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from
the previous forecast and is in best overall agreement with the
intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.8N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 138.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.6N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.3N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.1N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 18.5N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
Quoting 317. weathermanwannabe:

And finally the latest loop from NOAA: clearly a direct hit at this point with the Capitol in the NE quad at landfall



That north west spiral arm must be putting down an enormous amount of rainfall now.
As the area is so mountainous there will be whatever their equivalent of flash floods are happening right now there. As they get plenty of typhoons they will probably be well prepared but this might be a bit of an exception.
The eye will defiantly pass across already saturated grounds so everything from about now on will be high speed run off. Probably more dangerous than the wind speed?
Ex-94L or what we think could be ex-94L LLC just passed S of Dominica now just SW of the island not doing good at this time convection completely removed from LLC and the LLC much weaker than before and it's seems like it's on its last leg and that leg is starting to break

Quoting 311. ncstorm:

SYNOPSIS 2015080600

P17L
12N, 52W
925 hPa

P17L might be a reincarnation of P10L/94L. Because of the temporal gap, and the fact that P10L would have been required to slow considerably for the last few days, there is enough uncertainty that I initiate this as a new pouch.


ECMWF: This low-level 925-hPa pouch is small but quite distinct for the first day, then it quickly dissipates.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, tracking a little faster and lasting slightly longer as a distinct pouch than in ECMWF.




Now this is putting an interesting twist in events

Maybe the system that we tracked heading into the Caribbean is not 94L could be an untagged invest

Found the link for the Taiwanese weather service: All of the mountainous regions under torrential rain warnings.........Dangerous flash floods are going to roll downhill over a large portion of the County in lower ground:

Extremely Heavy Rain Advisory1. Keelung North Coast-Taipei City-New Taipei City-
Taoyuan City-Hsinchu County Mountain Area-
Miaoli County Mountain Area-
Taichung City Mountain Area-
Nantou County Mountain Area-
Yunlin County Mountain Area-Chiayi City-Chiayi County-
Tainan City-Kaohsiung City-Pingtung County-
Hengchun Peninsula-Yilan County-Hualien County-
Taitung County-Lanyu and Ludao Islands-

...Torrential Rain Advisory or Extremely Torrential
Rain Advisory in effect from this evening (08/07)
through Saturday night (08/08)...



http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/
A shot of their enhanced radar page from the site: really heavy band inbound:

353. vis0
image host
Original Title:: PartRIDGE Family bus look
- Cayman is in the scene for its every direction but building upwards clouds
- Is that 94L?? west of Antilles? sar2401 it went TOO far to the North
- Finally, south of Panama what a blow up SEVERAL specks of white too.
Quoting 330. largeeyes:

Seems clouds are going to keep Berlin from hitting 40 today. almost 4pm and ranging from 36-37. My apartment is 32-34. I don't have many clothes on.

Very hot day in our part of Germany as well, and a busy time in German weatherblogs, lol. Up to 38C (100F) at my place in Mainz; many stations in the southern parts of the country with around 39C (102F), and yes, two official stations may have briefly touched the 40C (104F; our official national record is at 40,3C). But we'll have to wait what our national weather service DWD will have to say at the end of the day.
Did we ever get a clear answer yesterday about whether El Nio is causing the SAL this year or other factors? Thx.

i think naga summed it up quite well.....

Quoting 81. Naga5000:

Just to correct something from the last blog, STS claimed a direct relation between El Nino and SAL which is not the case,

"The linear correlation between Nio3 SST anomalies and the Barbados dust record is found to be insignificant for the chosen period, indicating that El Nio and dust events over the Atlantic can be considered, to a first order, mathematically independent. " Link

Beyond that, research treats ENSO and SAL as separate entities in analysis, which suggests that the two are independent enough from each other, which is supported by typical rainfall patterns of summer El Nino's:

which do not support the idea that El Nino is directly responsible for increased SAL over the MDR.
Quoting 317. weathermanwannabe:

And finally the latest loop from NOAA: clearly a direct hit at this point with the Capitol in the NE quad at landfall



I find this picture fascinating.
After the first massive north west spiral arm goes over the island and moves away, you can see that it has like a twin brother right behind it which due to the direction of the storm and the layout of the spiral arms is probably going to move over exactly the same area as the first spiral arm, if the formation of the system stays the same.
After this twin downpour blow then comes the eye and after that probably a lesser intense downpour.

In spite of the reported complacency of the islands attitude towards this storm I think they might be in for some very nasty surprises and possibly some resignations over bad suppositions.
Also found their current SST's on the site (as of July 31st):
2015-07-31 SST of Taiwan Analysis


Quoting 354. barbamz:


Very hot day in our part of Germany as well, and a busy time in German weatherblogs, lol. Up to 38C (100F) at my place in Mainz; many stations in the southern parts of the country with around 39C (102F), and yes, two official stations may have briefly touched the 40C (104F; our official national record is at 40,3C). But we'll have to wait what our national weather service DWD will have to say at the end of the day.

Looks like a near miss on that ancient ( ;) ) record. But I've only seen hourly observations.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
There is something very wrong with the Atlantic hurricane season when the 500mb isosurface reaches 6000 meters:
The most recent 30 minute RAMBB shot update; regardless of what may be happening with pressures and the eye-wall, in the big-picture scheme, this is a very well formed storm a it looks a lot tighter than earlier this morning with the great outflow:


Quoting 358. cRRKampen:


Looks like a near miss on that ancient ( ;) ) record. But I've only seen hourly observations.

Yes, probably a near miss. New link. Chose "Lufttemperatur", mouse over the stations in and around Baden Wuerttemberg for the last reading and click it to see the graph. Time caption is wrong though (MEZ instead of rightly UTC). The most interesting stations for today are in the right upper corner. Offical ones are those from DWD. Others are from private weatherservice.
Website with multiple webcams across Taiwan.
Link
That was a nice little hook on the tornado in Troy last night.
Southern islands of Japan getting pounded by Soudelor's outer bands as well:

Quoting 250. BaltimoreBrian:

Gravitational constant appears universally constant, pulsar study suggests Possibly the most important scientific finding of the year.




Or this century...Einstein was sooo last century; and that Newton guy???

Science...it works.
Quoting 364. Huracan94:

Website with multiple webcams across Taiwan.
Link


Need to check how often these update; it is currently 11:30 PM there and these are showing daylight images.
El Nuevo Día
‏@ElNuevoDia
En portada: Solo un evento extremo nos salva Link
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 23:13:09 N Lon : 123:14:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 940.9mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -59.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON

Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 191km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.5 degrees




Quoting 349. wunderkidcayman:

Ex-94L or what we think could be ex-94L LLC just passed S of Dominica now just SW of the island not doing good at this time convection completely removed from LLC and the LLC much weaker than before and it's seems like it's on its last leg and that leg is starting to break



Now this is putting an interesting twist in events

Maybe the system that we tracked heading into the Caribbean is not 94L could be an untagged invest


I think ex-94L existed as an identifiable low until last night. The original ex-94L dissipated then, but this new low, such as it is, formed just to the north of it. What's left of the new low is now being torn up by the westerly trades as it approaches Antigua and Barbuda and gets into the gap between the Windward and Leeward Islands. This is shown very clearly on the WV loop. What remains of the low is going to be carried off to the east and absorbed into the trades. There's zero chance this is going to the western Caribbean, the Bahamas, Florida, or the GOM. Keep an eye on it though. You never know when it may spring back to life again.

373. MahFL
Quoting 356. PlazaRed:


in spite of the reported complacency of the islands attitude towards this storm...


Do you have any examples of that ?
All bar 2 counties have been told by the gov not to report for work or school.
Most buildings on the island are built to withstand typhoons, that hit almost every year.
Today on the daily El nino news we have:
375. MahFL
The eye is definitely getting smaller.
Quoting 340. beell:

To the great disappointment of many, I am back from BanLand. And I am suitably chastened and deeply remorseful for my transgressions against the WUcommunity.

The punishment was appropriate for the crime-so all is good!


I'm not disappointed, but we all know you're a terrible person, and need to be banned from time to time to keep you in line. I'm sure that whatever horrible thing you did deserved chastisement. Of course, I've never seen a post from you I thought was bannable, but that's just me. I'm more surprised with people who seem to violate the rules of the road on an hourly basis with complete impunity...but that's just me.
El Niño signals are still iffy for northern reaches of state
By Kurtis Alexander Updated 7:07 pm, Thursday, August 6, 2015


While Southern California remains on track for a wet winter, the forecast for Northern California is still cloudy.
The strengthening El Niño that’s expected to bring moisture to at least the southern part of the state is already stirring surprise showers there. Last month, Los Angeles and San Diego set rainfall records.
But it remains to be seen how far north the rain will spread. Only recently did the U.S. Climate Prediction Center say the Bay Area is about a third more likely to be wet than dry come winter, and it has yet to say anything about the state’s far northern reaches.

Precipitation in the top half of the state, where many of California’s big reservoirs are located, is most important water-wise, especially with supplies diminished after four dry years.
“There is a tendency toward wetter winters during your average El Niño event in the south,” explained Stanford University climate researcher Daniel Swain, noting that the correlation with rain makes Southern California conditions easier to forecast than those in the north. “The average El Niño signal is not really meaningful for (all of) California.”
Another Taiwanese news blurb for Saturday for Taiwan:


Taipei, Aug. 7 (CNA) City and county governments announced Friday that all offices and schools will be closed on Saturday in anticipation of Typhoon Soudelor. All six municipalities, Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung, three cities, and 13 counties, including the outlying islands of Penghu, Kinmen and Lienchiang (Matsu) announced closures. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) has warned that 15 cities and counties may experience extremely torrential rain, 350mm or more in 24 hours, and the rest of Taiwan may see extremely heavy rain of 130mm or more over a 24 hour period. As the typhoon moves toward Taiwan, 21,067 households had suffered blackouts and 6,328 were still without power, as of 9:40 p.m. The Council of Agriculture warned governments in 13 cities and counties to make preparations for the evacuation of residents if necessary, with warnings about 413 possible mudslide in 34 townships. The 13 administrative areas include all six municipalities and seven counties, including Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Nantou, Yunlin, Chiayi and Pingtung. Meanwhile, more than 3,000 people in Pingtung, Taitung and Hualien counties have been evacuated to safety.
Will El Niño Save California from the Drought?

As California's drought stretches well into a fourth year, there has been no shortage of news stories suggesting that stronger El Niño conditions expected later this year might help end the drought. But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

While the last strong El Niño we experienced (1997-1998) led to significant flooding in California, the truth is that an El Niño is no guarantee of a wet winter. In fact, we've only seen four strong El Niño events in the past 65 years; two of these featured above-normal precipitation and during the other two, we received below-normal precipitation.

While there has been a slight bias toward above-normal precipitation in Southern California during El Niño (and current winter forecasts are indicating a greater chance of near-normal to above-normal precipitation), there has not been a significant effect observed in Northern California. This is especially sobering given that most of our water supplies originate in the northern half of the state, notably in the form of snowpack.
Quoting 365. TCweatherman:

That was a nice little hook on the tornado in Troy last night.
Yes, it was. I was looking at the radar when they issued the significant weather statement, and the cell didn't look like anything special. Five minutes later, the hook was clearly identifiable, and BMX was scrambling to issue the tornado warnings. It looked like the tornado was on the ground for at least 20 minutes, maybe as long as a half hour. There's other structure damage to homes in the Troy area as well as to the Walmart shopping center. BMX is out doing a survey today, and my guess is that it will be an EF-2. Very unusual for our neck of the woods on an August night.
Last remark on our record hot day in Germany: Our national weather service just announced on facebook, that our national heat record from July 5 has been tied today: Once again in the same town Kitzingen (Bavaria) with the same 40,3C (= 104,54F), lol.



And now thunderstorms should be rolling in later this evening into this very hot airmass. Wow.
The storm did a nice job over the past three hours of mixing out the swatch of dry air that was adjacent to the eye wall and it has been able to wrap around again:
%u96F7%u9054%u56DE%u6CE2%u5716

Quoting 363. barbamz:


Yes, probably a near miss. New link. Chose "Lufttemperatur", mouse over the stations in and around Baden Wuerttemberg for the last reading and click it to see the graph. Time caption is wrong though (MEZ instead of rightly UTC). The most interesting stations for today are in the right upper corner. Offical ones are those from DWD. Others are from private weatherservice.
There used to be some relationship between your weather and mine. When I was hot, you were cool. When I was cool, you were hot. Now it seems like we are both moving lockstep. There are enough clouds today that we may not make it past 95, but we head right for 100 starting tomorrow, and remain near 100 for at least the next five days. We haven't had the high temperature records you've had, although we've broken a number of daily records. This has been the most prolonged and intense heat wave I can remember ever since I was a kid in the mid-50's. The objective temperatures were even hotter then, but this one is much worse in terms of how long it has lasted. If we don't make it to at least 98 today, it will be the first day since July 8 not to reach 98 or above.
Quoting 363. barbamz:


Yes, probably a near miss. New link. Chose "Lufttemperatur", mouse over the stations in and around Baden Wuerttemberg for the last reading and click it to see the graph. Time caption is wrong though (MEZ instead of rightly UTC). The most interesting stations for today are in the right upper corner. Offical ones are those from DWD. Others are from private weatherservice.

Mannheim DWD reading 39.8 C, that's only half a degree. More 39 readings in the vicinity. The big news remains that Germany now has two of such tremendously hot days in one season. And while this brute heatwave lingers on and on a bit to the east (Poland will have a go for its record tomorrow, for instance, while the T850 of 20 remains over part of that country throughout next week) Germany might get even another heat hit next week Friday (based on GFS Oper runs of today, which do diverge from the ensemble though).

Edit: just read the German record was tied today.
Quoting 373. MahFL:



Do you have any examples of that ?
All bar 2 counties have been told by the gov not to report for work or school.
Most buildings on the island are built to withstand typhoons, that hit almost every year.

The reports of the complacency were posed on here on blogs yesterday, hence the reports of complacency.
most reports seemed to be related to people attending schools and work normally.
This may have changed now 24 hours later.
Time will tell if these attendances was a good idea as this is a very serious storm with probably long term consequences.
I'm sure over the forthcoming days a lot of debates on damages and damage preventions will be heard.

In the meantime I feel that its always best, in fact probably essential to carry out the maximum amount of safety measures in advance of Typhoons. Too many disasters have been caused by complacency.
Too many lives are lost because people don't think it will happen, or it won't happen to them.
I imagine Taipei will likely see category one hurricane conditions at some point from Typhoon Souledor. It is my impression that this is nearly an annual occurrence. In looking at the webcams (haven't found a really good live view yet) and photos of Taiwan, the vegetation looks to be overall low, green and shrubby. There are obviously plenty of trees, but I don't see any trees/palms sticking way up in the air, no doubt a result of the multiple tropical cyclone hits on a yearly basis.
Quoting 383. sar2401:

This has been the most prolonged and intense heat wave I can remember ever since I was a kid in the mid-50's. ...


Hey Sar. Yes, exceptional heatwaves are around! Quite sure our worst one from 2003 so far will be topped by the current one. Especially the eastern parts of Germany and moreover Austria and adjacent countries are very hard hit, and no end in sight. The drought is terrible too. Guess we'll hear more of it in international (English) media as this mess goes on. Best wishes (not at least to radar dog, lol), and I'm glad to see you posting again.
Quoting 386. PlazaRed:


The reports of the complacency were posed on here on blogs yesterday, hence the reports of complacency.
most reports seemed to be related to people attending schools and work normally.
This may have changed now 24 hours later.
Time will tell if these attendances was a good idea as this is a very serious storm with probably long term consequences.
I'm sure over the forthcoming days a lot of debates on damages and damage preventions will be heard.

In the meantime I feel that its always best, in fact probably essential to carry out the maximum amount of safety measures in advance of Typhoons. Too many disasters have been caused by complacency.
Too many lives are lost because people don't think it will happen, or it won't happen to them.


If I were an average citizen and lived out of a storm surge zone on higher ground on the western side of the island (where most of the major cities appear to be), I would probably go business as usual with this storm, perhaps avoiding the roads during the most intense few hours of the storm's impact. Due to the time this is making its direct hit, I would probably sleep through most of it anyways, as the 30-60 mph winds with gusts 70-90 mph hit. Being a storm junkie though, I would be out in it, what can I say.

If it were a category 4-5, then I might batten down the hatches, make preparations and stay home.
Quoting 385. cRRKampen:


... Germany might get even another heat hit next week Friday (based on GFS Oper runs of today, which do diverge from the ensemble though).

Yes, lol, this has been widely noticed and discussed on German weather blogs for many days already: the GFS Oper on its lonely stairway to heaven. Here is the latest for Vienna: Look at the green line, completely detached from the other members!


Source. Click the pic to enlarge.
Quoting 388. barbamz:


Hey Sar. Yes, exceptional heatwaves are around! Quite sure our worst one from 2003 so far will be topped by the current one. Especially the eastern parts of Germany and moreover Austria and adjacent countries are very hard hit, and no end in sight. The drought is terrible too. Guess we'll hear more of it in international (English) media as this mess goes on. Best wishes (not at least to radar dog, lol), and I'm glad to see you posting again.

This is a truly devastating season for Alpine glaciers. The Alp countries reside in the middle of the Euro heat dome for all of next week. Austria already hottest July, regionally hottest month in 250 years of records.
The centre of this one a bit easterly from the death ridge 2003. Which had France evacuate some diary cooling magazines to stock the deceased.
Quoting 390. barbamz:


Yes, lol, this has been widely noticed and discussed on German weather blogs: the GFS Oper on its lonely stairway to heaven. Here is the latest for Vienna: Look at the green line, completely detached from the other members!



Most bizarre example I've seen today... I'm not buying it, I'm almost dogmatic on ens means especially as of +72h. But I can't be completely sure these days..
Woah, Hua-Lien City now reporting winds NNE at 99 mph gusting to 138 mph. This was the city I was going to be watching since it is on the central part of the east coast of Taiwan.
Quoting 356. PlazaRed:


I find this picture fascinating.
After the first massive north west spiral arm goes over the island and moves away, you can see that it has like a twin brother right behind it which due to the direction of the storm and the layout of the spiral arms is probably going to move over exactly the same area as the first spiral arm, if the formation of the system stays the same.
After this twin downpour blow then comes the eye and after that probably a lesser intense downpour.

In spite of the reported complacency of the islands attitude towards this storm I think they might be in for some very nasty surprises and possibly some resignations over bad suppositions.
As long as the death toll isn't high in urban areas, particularly Taipei, no one is going to lose their job. I don't think complacency is the right word. The civil defense organization and weather service have been of top of this storm. Taiwan media just doesn't get all breathless about it, especially since the government doesn't want them to make a big deal about any natural disaster. Too much publicity makes international partners nervous about property destruction and not getting their products delivered on time. Since exports are what Taiwan lives on, and they almost all come from urban areas, they are all well protected from typhoons. They evacuate people away from the coast in plenty of time, which is one thing that keeps the death toll down.

Taiwan, like all countries, only has limited resources, and rural and mountainous areas are pretty much on their own until civil defense can free up resources from urban areas. The people living in rural areas pretty much know where they need to go to decrease the risk to themselves of flooding and landslides. It's inevitable that some people will get caught in floods or landslides, and there's not much civil defense can do about that. Their civil defense people had a fatalistic attitude about that. They will do all they can to help in rural areas, but that help only comes after urban areas have been squared away. Taiwan is not North America or Europe, and it's difficult for us to understand their attitudes unless you've spent some time there.
Quoting 392. cRRKampen:


Most bizarre example I've seen today... I'm not buying it, I'm almost dogmatic on ens means especially as of +72h. But I can't be completely sure these days..

I'm sure the poor Austrians won't like to buy it either ... Hopefully it's a glitch, but ...
(Have to go for a while now. Leaving this stage to the typhoons.)
The wind speeds have dropped 5 knots across the board (base and gusts) from the earlier advisory this morning:
WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 034
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
They also dropped the earlier comment with regard to slight intensification; this is better news for the Island:


WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS
RETAINED A 17-NM EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING. A 071014Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS A DECAYING INNER EYEWALL WITH A SURROUNDING, LARGER SECONDARY
EYEWALL, AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY AND TAIWAN RADAR FIXES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS (T5.5) FROM ALL
AGENCIES.
TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
Quoting 393. HurrMichaelOrl:

Woah, Hua-Lien City now reporting winds NNE at 99 mph gusting to 138 mph. This was the city I was going to be watching since it is on the central part of the east coast of Taiwan.
I guess, if nothing else, it shows how well guyed that anemometer is and that they must have emergency power to supply the instrument and the net. My anemometer is pretty well guyed and secured to the roof, but there's no way it would survive a gust of 138 mph.


Soudelor Makes Beeline for Taiwan
here comes the real rough stuff...I hope all fare well.

Quoting 398. sar2401:

I guess, if nothing else, it shows how well guyed that anemometer is and that they must have emergency power to supply the instrument and the net. My anemometer is pretty well guyed and secured to the roof, but there's no way it would survive a gust of 138 mph.


I was thinking the exact same thing. That is a category 4 strength gust! The eyewall is still several hours from impacting Taiwan.
i have a new blog up!!
Yup; eyewall impacts aside, it is those very strong gusts from the rain bands that usually take down the power lines and electrical power well before the core of the storm makes impact..........Always a very scary thing to have the power go out (and especially at night) and hearing the winds howl outside and stuff getting blown around.
Quoting 400. hydrus:

here comes the real rough stuff...I hope all fare well.



Soudelor doing very well indeed, now with gradual interaction with the Taiwanese mountain range.
Quoting 388. barbamz:


Hey Sar. Yes, exceptional heatwaves are around! Quite sure our worst one from 2003 so far will be topped by the current one. Especially the eastern parts of Germany and moreover Austria and adjacent countries are very hard hit, and no end in sight. The drought is terrible too. Guess we'll hear more of it in international (English) media as this mess goes on. Best wishes (not at least to radar dog, lol), and I'm glad to see you posting again.
Thanks, Barb, I feeling a bit stronger each day. This whole thing knocked a lot more out me than I thought it would. That good thing is I'm going on day 18 of no cigarettes, so I'm hoping that will help as well. I'm still disappointed I seem to be more short of breath not smoking that I was when I was smoking. Still a lot of crud in my lungs, so maybe things will get better as I hack up all that stuff.

Yes, poor Radar Dog had tough night last night with all the lightning and some really loud thunder. We've had so few thunderstorms this year that he's gotten out of the habit of being scared in advance, and the storm last night sneaked up on both of us. He dashed under the desk at the first clap of thunder and wouldn't come out for two hours, long after the storm moved on. There were storms just to our north that formed after the large line went through, and I suspect he turned on his radar skills again. Unfortunately, all the storms dissipated before they got here, so all that shaking and whining was for nought. :-0
Damn heat, today s scorching temperature broke the records on many czech weather stations and it s officially the warmest day so far. Guess I will steal Patrick s line.
2015 the year the climate strikes back.


Quoting 393. HurrMichaelOrl:

Woah, Hua-Lien City now reporting winds NNE at 99 mph gusting to 138 mph. This was the city I was going to be watching since it is on the central part of the east coast of Taiwan.

Huh? Eye still 100 km out!
Someone said this pic was taken in Oklahoma a day or two ago..Wonder if its real.. Nevermind..wont post.




I was standing outside of the parents house (under the entrance foyer) when Andrew was on approach and was able to see/experience the gusts in the rain bands accelerate in speed as the storm got closer. The winds basically "flattened" the tops of the trees and palms as the gusts came through; the third band finally blew the transformer down the street, the sparks flew, and they had no electric for 8 days after that (but with no damage to their home as they lived further North in Miami).
Quoting 389. HurrMichaelOrl:



If I were an average citizen and lived out of a storm surge zone on higher ground on the western side of the island (where most of the major cities appear to be), I would probably go business as usual with this storm, perhaps avoiding the roads during the most intense few hours of the storm's impact. Due to the time this is making its direct hit, I would probably sleep through most of it anyways, as the 30-60 mph winds with gusts 70-90 mph hit. Being a storm junkie though, I would be out in it, what can I say.

If it were a category 4-5, then I might batten down the hatches, make preparations and stay home.

90 MPH winds with gusts at 138 MPH, eye probably still 70 to 100 miles out? Depending on where you are located.
I would strongly advise staying indoors and listening to the screaming winds probably in the jet black darkness, imagining that maybe in a few days the electricity might get reconnected.
Being a storm junkie is OK but you are better off being a storm survivor to tell the story in this case.
Quoting 410. hydrus:



Hmmm, not looking terribly impressive for a week in August here. I guess I had been spoiled by the past 3 weeks (not much since Monday though). At least it looks like we will get a quick downpour here shortly.
Latest radar image (and the eye wall has opened up a bit again)...............Notice it is just after midnight there (early Sat am on August 8th):

雷達回波圖
Quoting 411. PlazaRed:


90 MPH winds with gusts at 138 MPH, eye probably still 70 to 100 miles out? Depending on where you are located.
I would strongly advise staying indoors and listening to the screaming winds probably in the jet black darkness, imagining that maybe in a few days the electricity might get reconnected.
Being a storm junkie is OK but you are better off being a storm survivor to tell the story in this case.


That report of 99 mph sustained winds is right on the east coast though. I would be more careful if I were in that region!
This is the best I can do for the wind map, I cant get it any closer on the magnification.
The highest winds sustained seem to be about 120MPH. to the upper north side.
Looking at the track of the typhoon, the eye could go over the north of the island not too far from the coast.
Its getting a lot of its power from the sea area north of Taiwan. I don't think that the mountains will have too much of an effect on it, certainly significant but not a total braking effect.
The rainfalls levels on the north coast must be massive right now.
Based on this map I would say that the capital and surrounding suburbs will soon if not already be having a very difficult time.

Link
Quoting 413. weathermanwannabe:

Latest radar image (and the eye wall has opened up a bit again)...............Notice it is just after midnight there (early Sat am on August 8th):

雷達回波圖

I wonder whether the actual eye is out of radar view somewhat as the larger ring's precipitation may shield some radar (I'm used to this kind of effect in Holland when very heavy rain falls at the radar in the centre of the country).
Quoting 392. cRRKampen:


Most bizarre example I've seen today... I'm not buying it, I'm almost dogmatic on ens means especially as of +72h. But I can't be completely sure these days..


Here in Hungary, this is a frequent problem with the GFS since 2-3 years, mainly during heat waves. The operative run calculate too dry air, therefore it gives higher temperatures at 2 m and at 850 hPa. Link

For example, 4-6 days before the actual heat wave, the operative calculated temperature 23-24 °C at 850 hPa and maximum temperature 37-39 °C for today, but the temperature at 850 hPa was 19-20 °C and the maximum temperature was 34-36 °C in my region (West Hungary).

But now, as the heat wave has already started, the operative seems better than the ENS, as the ECMWF ENS (and operative) also show temperatures 19-20 °C at 850 hPa in the nex days (Szombathely located not far from Wien). Link And the 2 m temperatures that the GFS ENS calculated also too low (all of the other modells show maximum temperatures around 35 °C on the nex days). Link
419. bwi
Taiwan central weather bureau
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/#self
Top gusts last hour 36.5mps, which is about 80 mph at Su-ao, a fishing port between Taipei and Hualien
Mean Wind Speed|Gust
Ranking Station Name m/sec | BS Time
1 Su-ao 36.5 | 12 08/08 01:15
2 Pengjiayu 36.0 | 12 08/08 01:15
3 Dongjidao 36.0 | 12 08/08 01:15
4 Xinwu 35.5 | 12 08/08 01:15
5 Hualien 35.0 | 12 08/08 01:15
6 Yilan 33.5 | 12 08/08 01:15
7 Wuqi 31.0 | 11 08/08 01:15
8 Keelung 30.0 | 11 08/08 01:15
9 Penghu 28.5 | 11 08/08 01:15
10 Taipei 25.0 | 10 08/08 01:15
James Reynolds (often recommended by our doc) is currently - of course! - at the east coast of Taiwan (Hualien), covering landfalling Soudelor: Here his tweets.
It looks like that Hilda became a hurricane, an eye appeared on visible satellite image:

Quoting 420. barbamz:

James Reynolds (often recommended by our doc) is currently - of course! - at the east coast of Taiwan (Hualien), covering landfalling Soudelor: Here his tweets.


If my crew had His budget,sponsor, we would have Live B roll easily.

: )
Quoting 417. Zivipotty:


Here in Hungary, this is a frequent problem with the GFS since 2-3 years, mainly during heat waves. The operative run calculate too dry air, therefore it gives higher temperatures at 2 m and at 850 hPa. Link

Welcome, European from the East. Hungary for sure experiences some very bad hot weeks. And the meteogram for Budapest (GFS with its operational run in green) is really as strange as the one for Vienna.



For the blog-community: In European weatherblogs it's very common to use such "meteograms" (diagrams) in order to look at a certain model, its main rain run (operational) and its ensembles/members. Temps (at a specific hight) are shown in the upper part, precipitation at the bottom (you can chose different combinations and layouts though). However, I've rarely/never seen those meteograms from US bloggers in here. Why not? Aren't they an option at your weather sites for weather enthusiasts?

25 days until Meteorological Fall
47 days until the First Official Day of Fall
Quoting 422. Patrap:

Oh my, Pat, mercy. What is a Live B roll? Had to look it up. Several meanings in wiki. Is this one right?

The term may also refer to commercial footage provided free of charge to broadcast news organizations as a means of gaining free publicity. Such B-roll sometimes makes its way into stock footage libraries.
troy Alabama tornado rated as an EF-1 with 100 mph winds...was only the 3rd august tornado in pike county since 1950.
Updated radar shot from 10 minutes ago; convection building again on the Eastern side of the eye wall circulation:

雷達回波圖
Local doppler for the Northern half of Taiwan; flooding rains coming in:

雷達回波圖
95F was the high for Bratislava, Slovakia today. It's now 8:30 pm, dusk, and still 88F outside. 100F is possible here each day through Monday with forecast highs of 99F; but it is more likely in the south-east near the Hungarian border. Can't find a forecast that takes the high below 90F in the next ten days either.

The plus point is that it's not too humid - if moisture were to be dragged into the current setup then it would be a far more oppressive and deadly event.

If the heavy convection on the Eastern side of the core as able to maintain and wrap around as the core makes landfall, the Northern end of the Island, and the Capitol, is going to experience significant flooding regardless of the wind speed issues:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 424. Climate175:


25 days until Meteorological Fall
47 days until the First Official Day of Fall


Leaves turn in DC metro in late October. Probably 75-85 days for a scene like this in the inner suburbs.


what is going on in the east coast
435. vis0

Quoting 359. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
There is something very wrong with the Atlantic hurricane season when the 500mb isosurface reaches 6000 meters:

my reply at my zilly pg2 cmmnt#55
Quoting 432. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
good blog!