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Another Category 5 Cyclone: Super Typhoon Soudelor

By: Bob Henson 1:36 AM GMT on August 04, 2015

Super Typhoon Soudelor vaulted to Category 5 status on Monday, making it the planet's sixth (at least--see below) Category 5 storm of the year. At 2:00 pm EDT Monday, Soudelor’s sustained winds were estimated at 180 mph, with the strength unchanged in the 8:00 pm EDT Monday update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). For the year thus far, Soudelor is Earth’s strongest tropical cyclone in terms of estimated wind speed. The Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen notes that Soudelor’s estimated central pressure of 900 mb is the lowest in a typhoon since last year’s Super Typhoon Vongfong, also 900 mb. Five prior Category 5 storms this year were described and illustrated in a May 19 post. They include Tropical Cyclone Eunice, Cyclone Pam, Super Typhoon Maysak, and Super Typhoon Noul. Update: Our initial survey of JTWC products showed that Cyclone Bansi fell short of Category 5 status. However, JTWC data for Cyclone Bansi archived by RAMMB-CIRA indicate that Bansi's estimated winds peaked at 140 knots (about 160 mph) at 0000 GMT on January 13. If we include Bansi, then we're now up to a startling seven Category 5 storms so far in 2015. This compares to a yearly average of 4.6 Category 5 storms for the period 1990-2014. It's not out of the question we could break the record total of 12 Category 5 storms notched in 1997, when--much like this year--a strong El Niño was ramping up. Thanks to wunderground member 1900hurricane for bringing Bansi data to our attention.

Models are in quite close agreement on keeping Soudelor rolling along a steady west-northwest track around the southwest side of a strong upper-level high. In its 0300 GMT Tuesday forecast update, the JTWC projected that Soudelor would strike the northern end of Taiwan on Friday or Saturday local time, potentially as a Category 3 or 4 storm. On such a track, Soudelor would move very close to Taiwan’s largest city, Taipei. The island’s rugged topography can lead to massive rainfall and hugely destructive flooding when strong typhoons make landfall, so Soudelor will have to be watched very closely.


Figures 1 and 2. These images of Super Typhoon Soudelor (Figure 1= infrared, Figure 2 = visible) show incredible detail collected at 1633 GMT Monday (12:33 pm EDT) by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor aboard NASA’s Suomi NPP satellite. For an animated-GIF version that switches between these two images, see the embedded tweet from Ari Salsalari (The Weather Channel) at bottom of this post. Image credit: NOAA/NASA, courtesy Dan Lindsey, RAMMB/CIRA, and Stu Ostro, Weather Channel.


Along with the strikingly crisp eyewall, the images of Soudelor in Figures 1 and 2 reveal a “cloud cliff”--a sharp, distinctly linear feature that abuts the northeast side of the eyewall. The cause of such cloud cliffs is unknown, but it is not uncommon to see them in super typhoons over the western Pacific. Similar features were observed in 2012 in Super Typhoon Bopha (visible on the south side of the eye in this blow-up image from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog), and in Super Typhoon Jelawat (visible on the north side of the eye.) For several images showing a cloud cliff in last year’s Typhoon Neoguri, see this July 2014 post by Jeff Masters.



Figure 3. An infrared image of the increasingly sheared Tropical Storm Guillermo, collected by the GOES West satellite at 0000 GMT Tuesday (8:00 pm EDT Monday). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Moving into increasingly hostile conditions, Tropical Storm Guillermo continued its slow weakening trend on Monday. Guillermo’s sustained winds were reduced to 65 mph in the 3:00 pm EDT Monday advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. As expected, westerly wind shear is ramping up along Guillermo’s track as the storm gains latitude, with vertical shear values likely to exceed 30 mph by Wednesday. With regular input from hurricane-hunter reconnaissance flights, computer models have nudged Guillermo’s west-northwest track a bit further away from the Hawaiian islands. Tropical storm watches may be issued for parts of the state, although it appears that large swells and localized heavy rains will be the main threat from Guillermo. The scenario is very reminiscent of Tropical Storm Flossie, which moved along a similar track paralleling and just north of the Hawaiian Islands while weakening from a tropical storm to a tropical depression. Meanwhile, a new system in the Northeast Pacific, Invest 92E, shows potential for developing into a tropical storm later this week, but it is unlikely to affect any major land areas.

In the Atlantic, tenacious Invest 95L is now hugging the coast of Georgia as it parallels the southeast U.S. coast on its slow northeastward path. Though still poorly organized, 95L brought heavy rains to the central Florida peninsula, especially across the Tampa Bay area, with flooding a concern throughout the day on Monday. Tampa notched 4.39” of rain on Monday, eclipsing the daily record of 2.57” from 1913. These rains came on top of 3.89” observed in Tampa on Saturday and 11.84” through July (most of it during the last two weeks of the month). Chances of 95L developing into a tropical cyclone while moving so close to the southeast U.S. coast are minimal. By Wednesday, 95L should be accelerating out to sea off the North Carolina coast.

A large and healthy tropical wave was just coming off the African coast on Monday night, with some hints that it could develop into an invest-worthy system over the next several days. For more on what’s brewing there and elsewhere, check out this afternoon’s post from WU blogger Steve Gregory. I’ll have a new post by Tuesday afternoon.

Bob Henson



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey, I just posted that

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Beauty is the beginning of terror!

Quoting 2. Grothar:

Hey, I just posted that




Quoting 3. BaltimoreBrian:

Beauty is the beginning of terror!






RMR
The Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen notes that Soudelor’s estimated central pressure of 900 mb is the lowest in a typhoon since last year’s Super Typhoon Vongfong, also 900 mb.


according to Hong Kong Observatory.. STY Noul from May 2015 was the last 900 hPa cyclone.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON NOUL (1506) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 900 HECTOPASCALS
Great new blog; stunning images.
What a beast. Tops are warming around the eye for now, may be leveling off a bit. Pictures are great from my computer, glad I am not down the line from this one.

Quoting Webber

I'm very curious to see how CDASv1 stacks up against HADISST, ERSST, COBE SST, NCEP/NCAR R1, etc...

This is the CDAS1 NINO 3.4 region surface temperature data file (January 1949-Present) I derived from the IRI library


I think the issue right now with the CDAS is because all the clouds and rain across the equatorial Pacific as 3.2 to 3.4 ESPI readings are about as high as you will ever see. What is your input on this?
My count seems to be off one, as I have Soudelor being the 7th category 5 storm using 1-minute sustained winds as the metric. The others I have are Bansi, Eunice, Pam, Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin
Quoting 166. aquak9:


The poor boy is beginning to exhibit signs of "Rain Madness" - don't push him over the edge!!


Quoting 212. Jedkins01:



Imagine this [Soudelor] making landfall in Tampa Bay this week...


Yup, Jed has gone mad.
Repost

It's easy to forget how elite Typhoon Haiyan was at peak intensity. I look at storms like Soudelor, which are incredibly impressive, and say "wow, that's not too far away from what Haiyan looked like at peak..." and then I look at satellite archives and see just how different they are.

Soudelor at peak this afternoon:



Haiyan at peak:

In terms of just taking the difference between CDO temperature and eye temperature of storms from the last ten or so years, Haiyan and Nida '09 are on a level all their own.
Very low clouds racing NE this evening. Low level flow still strong enough to feed overnight convection and seems to be sagging south.

Haiyan


Vongfong


Soudelor



No doubt the strongest is Haiyan.
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Very low clouds racing NE this evening. Low level flow still strong enough to feed overnight convection and seems to be sagging south.


Alright that's just adding insult to injury. Might just be outflows from storms in the GOM and over the Gainesville area.
Quoting 9. 1900hurricane:

My count seems to be off one, as I have Soudelor being the 7th category 5 storm using 1-minute sustained winds as the metric. The others I have are Bansi, Eunice, Pam, Maysak, Noul, and Dolphin


Looks like the discrepancy is due to Bansi. I worked from the Jeff Masters post of May 17 (see link below), which includes images and blurbs for each Category 5 this year. According to Jeff, JTWC's top wind speed for Bansi was 150 mph. The CSU link you included for Bansi does show one observation of 160 mph winds (Category 5). At least for now, I'll stick with Jeff's classification of Bansi as a Cat 4, since he used JTWC data across the board for his Cat 5 list...but we may reconsider!

Bob

Super Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Earth's 5th Category 5 Storm of 2015 (Jeff Masters post from 5/17/15)
Quoting 16. BobHenson:



Looks like the discrepancy is due to Bansi. I worked from the Jeff Masters post of May 17 (see link below), which includes images and blurbs for each Category 5 this year. According to Jeff, JTWC's top wind speed for Bansi was 150 mph. The CSU link you included for Bansi does show one observation of 160 mph winds (Category 5). At least for now, I'll stick with Jeff's classification of Bansi as a Cat 4, since he used JTWC data across the board for his Cat 5 list...but we may reconsider!

Bob

Super Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Earth's 5th Category 5 Storm of 2015 (Jeff Masters post from 5/17/15)


Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi (923 hPa) has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D1.5/18 HRS


ya. RSMC Reunion/Mauritius only had 140 knots (7.0 Dvorak) for only one advisory too.
Anyone know the current status of the Bermuda high, or whether steering patterns currently favor paths out to sea this season, or more westward paths toward the Caribbean/CONUS? Really hard keeping up with these patterns. Thx
UPDATE: Sorry, Double-post. Didn't see this last one go through
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:

Very low clouds racing NE this evening. Low level flow still strong enough to feed overnight convection and seems to be sagging south.




I actually hope we get another round of rain here in Orlando before 95L pulls out and rain chances go down over the next few days (albeit to around climatological norms). I was getting so used to the daily deluge, that it was odd today when it never materialized here. I've hardly ever seen an area of precipitation just disintegrate like the storms over FL late this morning and into the early afternoon. I had a suspicion we might be in for little rain when the line made no progress east between 9-10 this morning (just west of Orlando). That was confirmed when I checked the radar around 2:30pm. Nothing!
Anyone know the current status of the Bermuda High? Whether steering patterns favor a westward path toward the Caribbean/CONUS or a north/east curve out to sea? Really hard keeping up with these patterns. Thx
Quoting 15. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alright that's just adding insult to injury. Might just be outflows from storms in the GOM and over the Gainesville area.


Lots of moisture in the atmosphere GT will need to watch this overnight. Thundering good here north of Orlando.
Quoting 19. HurrMichaelOrl:



I actually hope we get another round of rain here in Orlando before 95L pulls out and rain chances go down over the next few days (albeit to around climatological norms). I was getting so used to the daily deluge, that it was odd today when it never materialized here. I've hardly ever seen an area of precipitation just disintegrate like the storms over FL late this morning and into the early afternoon. I had a suspicion we might be in for little rain when the line made no progress east between 9-10 this morning (just west of Orlando). That was confirmed when I checked the radar around 2:30pm. Nothing!


Rained good at my house near Rock Springs but in Altamonte no rain just drizzle. Really thundering right now even though radar isn't impressive.
11. Really serves to illustrate what an unusually intense storm Haiyan was. Earth doesn't produce storms of that severity very often...
Quoting 16. BobHenson:



Looks like the discrepancy is due to Bansi. I worked from the Jeff Masters post of May 17 (see link below), which includes images and blurbs for each Category 5 this year. According to Jeff, JTWC's top wind speed for Bansi was 150 mph. The CSU link you included for Bansi does show one observation of 160 mph winds (Category 5). At least for now, I'll stick with Jeff's classification of Bansi as a Cat 4, since he used JTWC data across the board for his Cat 5 list...but we may reconsider!

Bob

Super Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Earth's 5th Category 5 Storm of 2015 (Jeff Masters post from 5/17/15)

Ahh, good to know where the discrepancy comes from. It might also be worth noting that the NRL Trackfile for Bansi also shows the one analysis of 140 kt at 00Z January 13th (you have to scroll down for it a little in the link). I was under the impression that the NRL trackfiles were taken directly from JTWC data, but I'm not 100% sure if that is true. I also went ahead and looked at the data WU has for Bansi, and it only shows a peak of 130 kt. However, data for 00Z and 12Z is omitted for some reason, which means the 140 kt analysis on January 13th would have been left out.

Anyway, I do want to thank you for taking the time to respond to my inquiry! Responses like this only help to reinforce all the hard work y'all do to get interesting and relevant information to all of us here on Weather Underground.
Quoting 11. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Repost

It's easy to forget how elite Typhoon Haiyan was at peak intensity. I look at storms like Soudelor, which are incredibly impressive, and say "wow, that's not too far away from what Haiyan looked like at peak..." and then I look at satellite archives and see just how different they are.

Soudelor at peak this afternoon:



Haiyan at peak:


Haiyan was in November, we have a ways to go this year.
Imagine the size of the waves crashing in the surge with Haiyan. Must have been sixty foot waves easily. Still remember the stories. Dad inland in Tacloban in a military barracks was with his three kids. Had his youngest daughter ripped from his arms as he tried in vain to save them all. So many died, so sad. And to think in a country like the Philippines, they were not informed about surge and how their location and path of Haiyan was the worst case possibility.
Hmmmm, interesting times in the WPAC.... That track revision towards the mainland is not good.
Centered in da pickle it is.


Quoting 11. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Repost

It's easy to forget how elite Typhoon Haiyan was at peak intensity. I look at storms like Soudelor, which are incredibly impressive, and say "wow, that's not too far away from what Haiyan looked like at peak..." and then I look at satellite archives and see just how different they are.

Soudelor at peak this afternoon:



Haiyan at peak:


And this is as it's making landfall!!!!!!
Quoting 22. StormTrackerScott:



Rained good at my house near Rock Springs but in Altamonte no rain just drizzle. Really thundering right now even though radar isn't impressive.


I didn't hear any thunder when I was just out, but you should have seen the moon to the east. Huge and red, and about 1/3 obscured by clouds, very eerie.

Next tropical system possibly,
Quoting 33. HurricaneAndre:


Next tropical system possibly,
Best chance for this early on is a quick blowup and a run up the mid-Atlantic. Conditions still don't seem all that conducive W of 40W ...
00z gigs shows nothing. Show's over.
So far, the 0z GFS appears to be more align with the 12z ECMWF in showing little to no development of the wave moving off Africa.

Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So far, the 0z GFS appears to be more align with the 12z ECMWF in showing little to no development of the wave moving off Africa.
:(((((((((((((
Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So far, the 0z GFS appears to be more align with the 12z ECMWF in showing little to no development of the wave moving off Africa.


Not surprising... still pretty nasty out there for TCs...
RIP 2015 hurricane season.
41. JRRP
Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:

So far, the 0z GFS appears to be more align with the 12z ECMWF in showing little to no development of the wave moving off Africa.



I expected that
the 18z ensembles were less enthusiastic
42. SLU
LOL @ the GFS

Quoting 40. HurricaneAndre:

RIP 2015 hurricane season.



It died before it started pretty much.
According to WU, soudelor intensified by 60 mph in 12 hours. That's got to be up there with wilma! Wow, now i'm considering doing my senior assignment on RI events. There's plenty of those nowadays.
45. vis0
image host

For Patrap fans...don't ya think Nature is 'bout to present Broadway play run of 80,000 weeks (Humans option to extend)  as to Natures' version of the big bad wolf & the 3 little pigs...guess who is playing the part of the 3 little pigs...HINT:: The animal that at times acts like it Sees no evil, hears no evil & talks no evil...
46. vis0
Thank you Mr Henson for this Midnight Matinee of Massive swirls
that tropical wave would be something to watch if it wasn't so stable in the atlantic.
Quoting 40. HurricaneAndre:

RIP 2015 hurricane season.


So tomorrow, hurricane imminent?
Quoting 45. vis0:

image host

For Patrap fans...don't ya think Nature is 'bout to present Broadway play run of 80,000 weeks (Humans option to extend)  as to Natures' version of the big bad wolf & the 3 little pigs...guess who is playing the part of the 3 little pigs...HINT:: The animal that at times acts like it Sees no evil, hears no evil & talks no evil...



So what are you saying?
We may not be done with Soudelor. The storm has weakened over the past 12 hours, presumably because of a deterioration in the wind shear setup or maybe the beginnings of a secondary eyewall replacement cycle. However, over the next day or two, the GFS indicates that the upper-level setup will become near perfect once again, with a strong upper-level low to the cyclone's northeast helping to evacuate mass from the center. Combined with sea surface temperatures near 30C and a continued moist environment, I would not be surprised to see Soudelor reach a second peak above 145kt.

Quoting 48. DeepSeaRising:



So tomorrow, hurricane imminent?
I don't know. Ask the models and the National Hurricane Center experts, their the experts.
Dry-ish air trying to wrap its way into Soudelor.

53. vis0

Quoting 46. vis0:

Thank you Mr Henson for this Midnight Matinee of Massive swirls
forgot to add credits...
image host
I've just updated this post, based on data from Cyclone Bansi referenced by 1900hurricane (see comments 9, 16 and 24]. Indeed, it looks as if the JTWC archive on Bansi has a single observation of Category 5 strength, so it appears we are now up to seven Cat 5s for the year. It's hard to keep up!

--Bob H.
Your up late tonight! Thanks for the update! Great work.

Quoting 54. BobHenson:

I've just updated this post, based on data from Cyclone Bansi referenced by 1900hurricane (see comments 9, 16 and 24]. Indeed, it looks as if the JTWC archive on Bansi has a single observation of Category 5 strength, so it appears we are now up to seven Cat 5s for the year. It's hard to keep up!

--Bob H.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located along the Georgia coast is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-
level winds are not expected to be conducive for development while
this low moves northeastward at about 10 mph near the southeastern
United States coast during the next day or so. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

still at 10%




Eastern Atlantic !!!!
59. vis0
Quoting 49. DeepSeaRising:



So what are you saying?
a picture is worth    1000 words (3000 is Spanish)      
2 or 3 TS.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
15:00 PM JST August 4 2015
=========================
About 310 KM Southeast of Okinotori-shima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (900 hPa) located at 18.6N 138.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 19.6N 134.1E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) West Southwest of Okinotori-shima
48 HRS: 20.7N 129.3E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 22.1N 124.7E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
Hothouse Rains Destroy More than 17,000 Homes in Myanmar — Bangladesh, India also Inundated

August 3, 2015: A massive moisture blow off the world’s record hot oceans had to go somewhere. And, over the past few days, the tally has been extraordinary.

A weak but heavily moisture-laden tropical cyclone Komen slammed into the coast of Bangladesh on Thursday, July 30th. Since that time, the system has lingered over the region — dumping between 11 (286 mm) and 47 inches of rainfall (nearly 1200 mm) over that low-lying country, over Myanmar and over India. For sections of Myanmar that’s twice the rainfall amount the country typically sees in all of July but concentrated into a period of a just a few days. To many, the inundation came suddenly and without warning. According to an AP interview:

“There was no warning … we thought it was normal [seasonal flooding],” said Aye Myat Su, 30, from a monastery being used as a temporary shelter in the regional capital of Kalay. “But within a few hours, the whole house was under water. My husband had to get onto the roof as there was no way out.”


Link
Thanks Bob for the blog headings.
It seems that another possible disaster is in the making here, China will probably get quite a lot of flack from this as well.

Climatic common sense must indicate that if you put a vast amount of heat into the Pacific and throw in a few aggressive lows, then you will probably get quite a few cat 5s as by-products.

On the same note if you lower the temps of the Atlantic and cover it in a thick layer of Saharan dust, pump down a lot of shear and confuse the SSTs quite a bit, along with redirecting the Gulf Stream then you will probably end up with a relatively quiet season, although this is only a theory, not a peer reviewed scientific fact. (Yet.)

Loads of heat over in Southern Europe no doubt leading to some problems this week and the temps in the Middle East are off the 50/C scale at the moment with a need to recalibrate the thermometers.
No doubt we will be hearing about that later on.
In Burma there could be as many as 200,000 houses flooded from recent storm activity.
According to our news seems to be a lot of wild fires in California at the moment, we hope that this situation can be brought under control.
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Link
Another scorcher here in Berlin in the low 90s today, heading to 100 by Friday. Shew.....
Japan%u2019s meteorological agency said temperatures in central Tokyo hit 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday for a record-tying fourth consecutive day, as a high-pressure system remained aloft the archipelago.

If the mercury exceeds 35 degree Celsius on Tuesday as is forecast, it would be the first five straight days of what the agency calls %u2018mousho,%u2019 or intense heat, since they began recording the data.

According to the agency%u2019s forecast, Tokyo is expected to see high temperatures until at least Thursday. There have been four years in the past in which the city saw four consecutive %u2018mousho%u2019 days, most recently in 2013.

The agency said in a report released on Monday that the average temperature in Tokyo in July was 26.2 degrees Celsius, which was 1.2 degrees higher than the average year. Temperatures began to rise in the middle of the month and remained extremely high, the report said.

Update: The temperature in Tokyo reached 35.1 degrees Celsius on Tuesday a little after 12:00 p.m., according to the meteorological agency.


Link


Sunday night hottest night in Israel's history


Nocturnal heat records were broken in many areas of the country; Monday set a new record for power consumption.


Link
Quoting 64. largeeyes:

Another scorcher here in Berlin in the low 90s today, heading to 100 by Friday. Shew.....


57 F expected to be today's high, here in southern Scotland.
Quoting 19. HurrMichaelOrl:



I actually hope we get another round of rain here in Orlando before 95L pulls out


95L left the house !
Quoting 33. HurricaneAndre:


Next tropical system possibly,


No chance, it's a Strong El Nino year, if you had not noticed.
watching tw cv too. doubt if it has a chance. also noticed this morning a giant area of dry dusty air on the colored water vapor. its maybe half the size as the u.s.. if you run its loop notice how its seems to be spinning around a circular eye. its center it just near 45w 22n. dust eye?
Quoting 71. MahFL:



No chance, it's a Strong El Nino year, if you had not noticed.


It's dressed up mighty nice but too bad it has no dance hall to dance in.
The wave is looking good as it comes off the West African Coast.
"I actually hope we get another round of rain here in Orlando before 95L pulls out"

Got a frog strangler up here south of Gainesville last night. They had to close off highway 441 north of Micanopy due to flooding.
Little to No SAL around it as it enters the Eastern Atlantic waters, it is in a nice bubble of clear conditions.

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 22 1100 PM HST MON AUG 03 2015
Quoting 76. Climate175:

The wave is looking good as it comes off the West African Coast.
wow!! need to be watch





wow look at this tropical wave!! we have a low on the mao
Recon found that Guillermo strengthened a bit last night, up to 70mph. However, the track now takes it a good deal north of the Hawaiian Islands. You can tell just by looking at satellite- the Big Island has become visible in its floater box, and the storm is already at that latitude, and should continue moving WNW.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure system located along the South Carolina
coast between Myrtle Beach and Charleston continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds
are not expected to be conducive for development while this low
accelerates northeastward near the the South and North Carolina
coasts during the day or so. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. In addition, this system could produce locally heavy
rains over the coastal area of South and North Carolina.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 81. hurricanes2018:






wow look at this tropical wave!! we have a low on the mao
The low is so close to fully entering the Eastern Atlantic.
Good Morning Folks:
Full Disk


Shear is dropping a bit in the Central Atlantic ahead of the latest wave and 95L does not stand a chance shear-wise:

Quite the update by the Aussies with strong language with regards to this years El-Nino.

NINO3.4 outlook
The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in July) indicate that sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to persist at above El Niño thresholds through until the end of 2015. The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for October is just above +2.6 °C, increasing to +2.7 °C by December. Since the start of the satellite era of ocean observations in the late 1970's, NINO3.4 values this large have only been observed during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model values range between +2.2 °C and +3.4 °C for December; all well above the El Niño threshold and indicative of a substantial El Niño.
The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.5 °C for the week ending 12 July 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically occur during El Niño events.
The following graph shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

More from Japan -

Nearly 11,700 have been hospitalized and 25 died from heatstroke due to a major heatwave over the past week, officials reported Tuesday


TOKYO (Sputnik) – The Fire and Disaster Management Agency listed the numbers, citing a total of 11,672 hospitalizations nationwide, during the July 27-August 2 period.

Read more: Link
I dont believe in all dat El Nino Mumbo Jumbo....



Its sketchy Science, Al Gore, its the Sun, yada,yada,yada....
Quoting 66. ColoradoBob1:



Sunday night hottest night in Israel's history


Nocturnal heat records were broken in many areas of the country; Monday set a new record for power consumption.


Link
temps will be set to extremes never seen before by mankind
Well there may not be La-Nina next Summer. Blog will go into overload if some of these trends continue as I've never seen anything quite like this before. Some models again don't shoot me are showing another surge possibly with SST's across the Equatorial Pacific going into next May. My point is we may not see La-Nina next year more like neutral or very weak El-Nino continuing into next Summer. However the MDR looks very warm & wet next May the opposite of this year. So its good and bad which the good may over weigh the bad to create a 2004 like set up sea surface wise.

13W/STY/S/C5
Quoting 93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

13W/STY/S/C5




Hear are the latest stats on Soudelor: it;s a monster..

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

Scott I saw that model output as well on JB site about next year in the MDR of the Atlantic and much more conducive for TC's forming in the Atlantic. If that comes to fruition both ocean basins Atlantic and Pacific could be very active. What is unusual about it is climatologically speaking El Nino only lasts 12 months or so and La Nina last 2 years or so. We might have crossed over into a new climate phase on our planet, or maybe not. Strange though. I do agree with El Nino sticking around next year. Scott contact me I do want to discuss this upcoming winter and then post on wunderground our finding. Give me a buzz Thank you
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:

Well there may not be La-Nina next Summer. Blog will go into overload if some of these trends continue as I've never seen anything quite like this before. Some models again don't shoot me are showing another surge possibly with SST's across the Equatorial Pacific going into next May. My point is we may not see La-Nina next year more like neutral or very weak El-Nino continuing into next Summer. However the MDR looks very warm & wet next May the opposite of this year. So its good and bad which the good may over weigh the bad to create a 2004 like set up sea surface wise.


typically strong el ninos weaken quite a bit in the spring but what will be more telling is the AMO and if it has gone to a permanent negative phase or if it was just temporary the last 4 hurricane seasons including this one
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
21:00 PM JST August 4 2015
=========================
About 200 KM Southeast of Okinotori-shima

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (900 hPa) located at 18.9N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 20.1N 132.8E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) West of Okinotori-shima
48 HRS: 21.3N 128.3E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 22.5N 123.6E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa


CBS news interviewed a firefighter at the Rocky fire in Calf.

It burnt over 20,000 acres in 5 hours during the night.
The Tampa reporting station exceeded the entire normal rainfall in the month of August in just the first 2 and a half days. Keep in mind August is one of the wettest months of the year here.
CSU released their seasonal hurricane update today. They forecast an additional 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major, for a season total of 8-2-1, compared to their previous forecast of 8-3-1. They forecast a total ACE of 35, down from 40 previously.
See The Media's Disconnect On Climate Change And Extreme Weather Illustrated On The Front Page
Wildfire Reports Run Alongside Clean Power Plan Stories, But Don't Mention Global Warming

Link
So far 94 here in Berlin today. Fortunately, the humidity is a desert like 25%. A front should usher in much cooler air tonight before the heat really gets turned up Friday/Saturday with temperatures approaching 100 and possibly more records falling.
At least 180 dead, a million displaced in India floods

Kolkata - Floods from days of torrential rain have now claimed at least 180 lives in India with one million people sheltering in relief camps after fleeing surging waters, officials said on Tuesday.

Link
at the first of each month...i like to look at the previous months enso models and see which one/ones are performing well....it's amazing to me that at around a 30 day mark so many are off and are off quite a bit.......with yesterdays reading coming in at a 1.7C for the 3.4 region....it would appear the gfdl_flor model is right on target.......will have to wait and see how it fairs at the beginning of september


here is the gfdl_flor as a stand alone product


also note...the cfsv2 pdf corrected has dropped 0.2C in the last week to a median high of only 2.0C




Quoting 111. ricderr:

also note...the cfsv2 pdf corrected has dropped 0.2C in the last week to a median high of only 2.0C







I would warn again the pdf corrected as necessarily more valid. Since the pdf corrected is based on the hind-casting of previous events, it assumes this event is like those previous (*which it may be), however, with more energy in the system, the odds favor that not to be the case. I guess what I'm saying is both non pdf corrected and pdf corrected should be taken with grains of salt.
been reading a few articles on PRico debt. not one has mentioned that Puerto Rico received quite a few hurricane hits past 20 yrs. they sure did not help.
I would warn again the pdf corrected as necessarily more valid. Since the pdf corrected is based on the hind-casting of previous events, it assumes this event is like those previous (*which it may be), however, with more energy in the system, the odds favor that not to be the case. I guess what I'm saying is both non pdf corrected and pdf corrected should be taken with grains of salt.


i disagree.....respectfully even.....the pdf corrected does utilize hindsight...but not hindcasting "previous events"...

from their site......

The forecast is first bias corrected based on the hindcasts and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) daily SST analysis for 1999-2010. Anomalies are then defined as the departure from NCDC's 1982-2010 climatology
Quoting 114. ricderr:

I would warn again the pdf corrected as necessarily more valid. Since the pdf corrected is based on the hind-casting of previous events, it assumes this event is like those previous (*which it may be), however, with more energy in the system, the odds favor that not to be the case. I guess what I'm saying is both non pdf corrected and pdf corrected should be taken with grains of salt.


i disagree.....respectfully even.....the pdf corrected does utilize hindsight...but not hindcasting "previous events"...

from their site......

The forecast is first bias corrected based on the hindcasts and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) daily SST analysis for 1999-2010. Anomalies are then defined as the departure from NCDC's 1982-2010 climatology



What do you think "hindcasts" mean in the wording you posted, in which I bolded above?
What do you think "hindcasts" mean in the wording you posted, in which I bolded above?

well.....you mentioned "events"...however....they state "daily sst analysis"


so maybe we have a misunderstanding as to what you mean by events
Quoting 116. ricderr:

What do you think "hindcasts" mean in the wording you posted, in which I bolded above?

well.....you mentioned "events"...however....they state "daily sst analysis"


so maybe we have a misunderstanding as to what you mean by events


Okay, fair enough, let me try to explain this again. The pdf correction uses hindcasts of SST change (events may have been a poor choice, but SST change includes El Nino and La Nina evolution) to adjust for bias in the current forecast, in other words, it assumes that current conditions are similar enough to the hindcasted conditions. Which as I said, they certainly may be, and is the case is a static climate. However, we do know that oceanic heat content has been ever increasing over the same hindcast period, therefore it would make sense that it is likely the pdf corrected version is erring on the lower side of this El Nino evolution based on just that one variable. That's where my statistical knowledge ends, the correction is a great tool, but because the system itself is not like the previous hindcasting, the correction *may need correcting. All I'm saying is it seems probable it is on the lower side of reality.
Quoting 113. islander101010:

been reading a few articles on PRico debt. not one has mentioned that Puerto Rico received quite a few hurricane hits past 20 yrs. they sure did not help.
They've also been enduring some drought conditions these last few years that have not been helping very much.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure area near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low
pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In
addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has
become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the
east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are at best
marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical
cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves
northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. After
tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean
and merge with a frontal system. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of
South and North Carolina today and tonight. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts and local
forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 04 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL INVEST OF
A SUSPECT AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33.6N
78.0W WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AT 04/1715Z. NO FURTHER
TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM IS PLANNED.

Quoting 119. stormpetrol:


I guess we can still hold out hope for some rain from this little beggar ... though appears so DRY out there ....
Got 3 inches of rain last night in association with 95L....... and one hell of a light show!!!!

Be interesting to see what 95L does today..... trending towards TD status.......

When does the HH's get on station??
Quoting 122. GeoffreyWPB:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 04 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL INVEST OF
A SUSPECT AREA OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33.6N
78.0W WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AT 04/1715Z. NO FURTHER
TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM IS PLANNED.


Looking at this, would they really need to fly it before it goes offshore? I'd think they have sufficient info without a HHers flight ...
Quoting 124. thelmores:

Got 3 inches of rain last night in association with 95L....... and one hell of a light show!!!!

Be interesting to see what 95L does today..... trending towards TD status.......

When does the HH's get on station??
Hey thel .... what were the winds like? I could see the rainfall rates overnight were fairly high.

We got a few millimetres here early this morning, and clouds remain prominent. Nothing like what 95L has been producing, though.
One small little storm dropping a bunch of rain in Rocky Point. Better here than other places though. Coming down pretty good.
129. JRRP
Caribbean deathtrap


MKD, Macedonia: 5 die, 11 injured in floods in Tetovo
4 August 2015 | 10:26 | FOCUS News Agency
Skopje. Five people died, while 11 were injured after the devastating flood that hit the Macedonian district of Tetovo. There are two kids among the casualties, Macedonian online news edition MKD reported.
The police in Tetovo announced that a child died in the Goljama Recica residential quarter in the town of Tetovo, while four people died in the village of Sipkovica, one of whom a 14-year-old boy.
Traffic along the road of Sipokovica is hampered due to a landslide.
A powerful storm hit the district on Monday causing chaos along the roads and serious material damages. The Pena river overflowed due to the pouring rain.


Another video.
Although the GFS has dropped development, the low off the coast of Africa is still fairly impressive with a good amount of spin.

95L's low appears to be just inland from the coast, GHCC Visible Loop. GOES East will be in RSO this afternoon.


Link
Good training mission at the very least. And sometimes these homegrown systems surprise us.
HI barb. How's the weather down your way? Those hobbits are back looking for my DG again.


We've got mostly cloudy conditions with lower than usual temps so far, due to the above. Not sure atm if it's a trailing feature from 95L's front or a ULL ...
Quoting 137. BahaHurican:



We've got mostly cloudy conditions with lower than usual temps so far, due to the above. Not sure atm if it's a trailing feature from 95L's front or a ULL ...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED UNDER THE TROUGHING
ALOFT AND EXTENDS FROM 26N76W TO 22N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 31N68W TO 28N70W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 35N53W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC.
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD TO 31N W OF 72W.
an area with a well defined low level centre of 1012mb is located near 11N 46W. Winds are about 20 knots and moving west. This area could have been more interesting if it were in a more moist environment. still about 900 miles from the islands.
Quoting 136. largeeyes:

HI barb. How's the weather down your way? Those hobbits are back looking for my DG again.

Hi largeeyes, I know. Today mid Germany we got a respite with a little rain (yeah!) and cooler temps (currently there is some severe weather at the coast of the Baltic Sea in northeastern Germany). Tomorrow temps will climb again towards the summit of 38C (100F) on Friday, *sigh*:


Temperature outlook for Mainz near Frankfurt.
Wish you fun and survival in your attic flat in Berlin!




Current IR loop and airmass picture with the performance of cyclonic low "Bonimir" northwest of the British Isles. Guess the folks over there would love to get a bit of our heat!
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

temps will be set to extremes never seen before by mankind
Yes, thanks to this strong El Nino.
11N 46W soon to be 96L
Okay, fair enough, let me try to explain this again. The pdf correction uses hindcasts of SST change (events may have been a poor choice, but SST change includes El Nino and La Nina evolution) to adjust for bias in the current forecast, in other words, it assumes that current conditions are similar enough to the hindcasted conditions. Which as I said, they certainly may be, and is the case is a static climate. However, we do know that oceanic heat content has been ever increasing over the same hindcast period, therefore it would make sense that it is likely the pdf corrected version is erring on the lower side of this El Nino evolution based on just that one variable. That's where my statistical knowledge ends, the correction is a great tool, but because the system itself is not like the previous hindcasting, the correction *may need correcting. All I'm saying is it seems probable it is on the lower side of reality.

finally....a weather conversation based on the trading of knowledge rather than chest beating...i'm right you're wrong...whoohoo

now i must admit...i stunk at statistics....and when my wife had to take two classes for her doctorate.....i tried to help..but she ended up having to hire a mathematician to tutor her...

now with that said...you talk about static...of which we know with rising temps i would assume the ocean has not been static...however...with using climatology from 1999 to 2010...wouldn't that represent some of the warming we've seen?
RapidScan shows a closed low 11N 46W
Quoting 144. stoormfury:

RapidScan shows a closed low 11N 46W
If this is the area petrel posted in #119, it looks awful dry .... I suppose it could make something of itself a bit closer to the Antilles, but seems more likely to pass through to the EPac and blow up there ...
Quoting 141. NativeSun:

Yes, thanks to this strong El Nino.

During mankind there never before was a strong El Nino?

The remark wasn't made with EN/SO in mind, of course. Moreover unearthly, or maybe rather unhumanely temp records get set during La Nina's just as well, only in different places. Like this (and make that 100% minus an infinitesimal): Russian summer 2010

(crazy things happen to diacrites on modifying a comment, which I had to do because it won't show a .png).
Quoting 141. NativeSun:

Yes, thanks to this strong El Nino.


Well.... I see it as a blockbuster movie that has had many production companies influence its development and release.

"Record Breaking Global Temperatures!"
- Produced by Climate Change Studios
- In association with El Nino Enterprises
- In association with Increased CO2 Media
- Starring Newsworthy Weather Events as "Exhibit A"
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure area near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low
pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In
addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has
become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the
east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are at best
marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical
cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves
northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. After
tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean
and merge with a frontal system. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of
South and North Carolina today and tonight. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts and local
forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
MAYBE INVEST 96L coming soon
150. txjac
Quoting 131. Skyepony:

Recon just took off for 95L.


Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?
Quoting 125. BahaHurican:

Looking at this, would they really need to fly it before it goes offshore? I'd think they have sufficient info without a HHers flight ...
It looks like the actual low is just barely inland at the NC/SC border. Almost all the weather associated with the low is offshore, however, so it's a good time to fly it when there's still good radar coverage. I imagine a system like this is instructive in terms of how things look to the dropsondes and plane compared to what's known from other reliable sources. It's also close enough to population that flying it will show if the low is more vigorous than it first appears on radar and satellite. I really wouldn't be surprised if this gets classified for a day or two as it moves out over the Gulf Stream.

Still hot as blue blazes in SE Alabama. I get a little miffed about reading in the Birmingham discussion that there's dry air mixing down to surface. Maybe in Birmingham, where it's 92 with a dewpoint of 58, but not here, where it's 97 with a dewpoint of 76. The humidity hasn't decreased one iota over the last several days even though most of the state has had a little more pleasant weather. Just walking around watering all the shriveling up plants almost kills me. Of course, there hasn't been any rain at all, and hasn't been since July 28. There's supposedly a better chance of rain Thursday, but this is coming from the same models that said the humidity was supposed to go down. :-)
Quoting 150. txjac:



Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?

Same question I asked earlier .... somebody else suggested it would be a good "training" flight ....
Quoting 150. txjac:



Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?



I thought the same thing, but if they hadn't gone in and it 'pulls a Humberto', the NHC might be accused of falling down on the job.
Quoting 150. txjac:



Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?

See my post #151. It's a good way to make sure observations from the instruments match up to what's apparently true on the ground (or water, in this case). There's also the matter of training. There hasn't been a lot to fly this year, and may not be much for the rest of the year, so practice makes perfect.
Quoting 150. txjac:



Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?



In my opinion - and I am not trying to be snarky as well - the plane samples the atmosphere in a lot more granularity than if they don't go. This information is fed into all of the models we use. So even if this isn't the storm to form, it will help the models get a better handle on what is going on.

Now, my more darker opinion. Also, my feeling is that there are not going to be a lot of storms to fly into, so they probably think it is ok to use some of their budgeted time to do this. Also, in government, if you don't use it you lose it. So they better start using it or the following years they may not be able to fly enough missions. (just a hunch though)

Overall - I think it is worth it. or as they say, the juice is worth the squeeze.
Quoting 153. yonzabam:



I thought the same thing, but if they hadn't gone in and it 'pulls a Humberto', the NHC might be accused of falling down on the job.
That's also true. Any time you've got a reasonably well developed low with 35 mph winds sitting right on the coast there are going to be a lot of requests for data from state EMA's, boating, and tourist interests, so confirming or denying a threat is a good idea.
Quoting 154. sar2401:

See my post #151. It's a good way to make sure observations from the instruments match up to what's apparently true on the ground (or water, in this case). There's also the matter of training. There hasn't been a lot to fly this year, and may not be much for the rest of the year, so practice makes perfect.


And also what SAR said...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure area near Little River
Inlet, North Carolina has not become better organized during the
past few hours. While upper-level winds are at best marginally
conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form
this afternoon or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the
coast of North Carolina. After tonight, the low is expected to move
into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will
continue to spread along the coastal areas of North Carolina this
afternoon and tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Beven
txjax~ Seemed to sink up nicely with an ASCAT pass too. It may help in calibrate that as well.

ASCAT also found some west winds...
Good afternoon all..

having some heavy rain on and off here..

One of the buoys
Station 41013
NDBC
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 2015 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 36.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (190°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.97 in and falling
Air Temperature: 76.1 F
Dew Point: 73.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F
Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure area near Little River
Inlet, North Carolina has not become better organized during the
past few hours. While upper-level winds are at best marginally
conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form
this afternoon or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the
coast of North Carolina. After tonight, the low is expected to move
into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will
continue to spread along the coastal areas of North Carolina this
afternoon and tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Beven


I can tell you TA13 that is one vigorous low. We had easily 35 to 45 mph gust with these squalls that came thru over the weekend. Dropped 3" in Orlando with over 10" in some areas across Tampa.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure area near Little River
Inlet, North Carolina has not become better organized during the
past few hours. While upper-level winds are at best marginally
conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form
this afternoon or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the
coast of North Carolina. After tonight, the low is expected to move
into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will
continue to spread along the coastal areas of North Carolina this
afternoon and tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently investigating this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

invest 95L notting on the tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic yet
Northern Michigan's record largest hailstone, at about 4.25" / 10.8 cm, fell there on August 2, 2015.

Link
Quoting 150. txjac:



Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?


Joining much of this question :)
A benefit I can think of: busy calibration of actual weather/-parameters with what can viewed from satellites. It's a way to make Dvorak numbers ever more meaningful imo.
Also, weaker systems especially tend to be 'sloppy' systems, which could exhibit details whose locations and intensities vary around the core(s) and could be relevant for the land regions they might hit.
Finally, raw air pressure readings and gradients and developements therein remain relevant and hard to satpic, even if an RI can be fairly well guessed from satellite imagery.

Ah, and Dakster #155: the food for the Models.

Guillermo approaching Hawaii: the big green bubble at the right border - as seen from Himawari satellite. Source with loop.
Stays wet in FL. Some areas from Tampa to Orlando could have their yearly rainfall averages complete by Septembers end if this keeps up. Then we have a 2C or great El-Nino to keep us wet this Winter. 22" here in Longwood since June 1st.

12Z GFS


we have a new low in black on here
Quoting 164. hurricanes2018:
invest 95L notting on the tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic yet

I expect they are waiting to see how well it takes to water.
Hmmm. Hurricane hunters finding 40-50 mph winds on the east side of 95L.


u see the low here!
172. txjac
Thank you for all of the answers ...

Still hot here 95F and feel like 109-110.
We do have some clouds moving in so temps should go down ...maybe even a shower if we are lucky
If the El Nino we have now is to get stronger like myself and many others believe it will. The Tornadoes in Palm Beach County may be a sneak preview of what our fall and most likely winter of 2016 will look like. Just fasten you're seat belts b/c we are in for a good ride. BTW I learned how to shift gears on a 18 wheeler yesterday pretty cool stuff
This sub surface warm pool is nearly identical to 1997 comparing dates. We are in early August & the data below for 1997 is August as a whole. One could argue the depths of warm water are greater in 2015 than 1997.

August 4th 2015


August 1997
Quoting 155. Dakster:



In my opinion - and I am not trying to be snarky as well - the plane samples the atmosphere in a lot more granularity than if they don't go. This information is fed into all of the models we use. So even if this isn't the storm to form, it will help the models get a better handle on what is going on.

Now, my more darker opinion. Also, my feeling is that there are not going to be a lot of storms to fly into, so they probably think it is ok to use some of their budgeted time to do this. Also, in government, if you don't use it you lose it. So they better start using it or the following years they may not be able to fly enough missions. (just a hunch though)

Overall - I think it is worth it. or as they say, the juice is worth the squeeze.


After 35+ years as a PRO MET and Mgr. at a major airline, and interfacing a lot with the NWS, FAA and our own budget groups - I can attest to the fact that there is an unwritten but solidly enforced rule in big Gov't and Big BIZ - 'use it or lose it'. The $$$ are there - so they need to use it or the budget $$$ will be cut the following year, no matter how many times you try and explain why one year has nothing to do with the next.

Steve
Quoting 173. WeatherConvoy:

If the El Nino we have now is to get stronger like myself and many others believe it will. The Tornadoes in Palm Beach County may be a sneak preview of what our fall and most likely winter of 2016 will look like. Just fasten you're seat belts b/c we are in for a good ride. BTW I learned how to shift gears on a 18 wheeler yesterday pretty cool stuff



It's going to be active across FL for sure this Fall/Winter & Spring. SE FL is getting wetter now too finally so you guys have a chance to catch up with the rest of FL later this year.
13W/STY/S/C4
WEAKENING FLAG FLAG
Flash floods kill 4 in Macedonia, mud slides cut off villages, power outages reported

It was the worst storm to hit the region in 35 years, according to Tetovo Mayor Teuta Arifi.

Check out the rocks this thing was moving.
Hey FL residents are you wondering why we keep getting these troughs stalling every week with another coming this weekend. Well look no further you can than the SOI crash again for yet another deep trough coming to the East this weekend. Texans you will continue to fry eggs on the side walk with 100 degree temps as a ridge flexes its muscle even more this weekend.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 04 Aug 2015
Average for last 30 days -14.23
Average for last 90 days -14.00
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -39.03

Quoting 175. JeffMasters:

After 35+ years as a PRO MET and Mgr. at a major airline, and interfacing a lot with the NWS, FAA and our own budget groups - I can attest to the fact that there is an unwritten but solidly enforced rule in big Gov't and Big BIZ - 'use it or lose it'. The $$$ are there - so they need to use it or the budget $$$ will be cut the following year, no matter how many times you try and explain why one year has nothing to do with the next.
Steve

Could have been my own office in Germany with €€€, lol.
12Z Euro opening the flood gates this weekend across FL into next week. Maybe another Gulf low too.
12z Run

Yeah, a friend is making vacation in Luebeck and I think they got hit relatively hard. I am looking forward to a bit of a respite tomorrow. I think we will have german class in the park on Friday for the 37 degree weather. We should yet again approach record highs then. Then the beer festival on the weekend!

Quoting 140. barbamz:


Hi largeeyes, I know. Today mid Germany we got a respite with a little rain (yeah!) and cooler temps (currently there is some severe weather at the coast of the Baltic Sea in northeastern Germany). Tomorrow temps will climb again towards the summit of 38C (100F) on Friday, *sigh*:


Temperature outlook for Mainz near Frankfurt.
Wish you fun and survival in your attic flat in Berlin!




Current IR loop and airmass picture with the performance of cyclonic low "Bonimir" northwest of the British Isles. Guess the folks over there would love to get a bit of our heat!
184. txjac
Quoting 180. barbamz:


Could have been my own office in Germany with €€€, lol.


Lucky I work for a company that rewards coming in under budget ...pays big bonuses
Quoting 183. largeeyes:

Yeah, a friend is making vacation in Luebeck and I think they got hit relatively hard. I am looking forward to a bit of a respite tomorrow. I think we will have german class in the park on Friday for the 37 degree weather. We should yet again approach record highs then. Then the beer festival on the weekend!

Largeeyes, I see you've got perfectly adapted to German lifestyle, lol.
BTW, no need to quote my whole posts, please (number is enough). I'm always ashamed of the length of my posts when they are quoted; sorry for this, lol.
Quoting 180. barbamz:


Could have been my own office in Germany with €€€, lol.


I think this principle works in every office in every country. Same with ours and training budget.
Quoting 150. txjac:

Posing a serious question here ...not being snarky

What can they learn that we don't already know by flying in to this low? It seems like they wouldn't want to waste any of their budget by flying in to this? That's why I am asking as to what can be learned?


Not being snarky either, your question rang this bell in my head :

At the end of the 19th century the director of the US Patent Office believed we should close it down to save money, because "Everything that could be invented, had been invented."

Ok, I can do that. Though I like doing that because then I can reference them again more quickly. I'll cut back.

Actually, there is also a Hemp parade/party on the weekend as well. The doners should sell very well this weekend.
Quoting 185. barbamz:


Largeeyes, I see you've got perfectly adapted to German lifestyle, lol.
BTW, no need to quote my whole posts, please (number is enough). I'm always ashamed of the length of my posts when they are quoted; sorry for this, lol.
It was a bit of a surprise that I come back and see 95L with decent % and a decent possibility of becoming the next system I see recon is happy to fly into something

PRE-96L has now cleared Africa I guess NHC wants to see how it hades over water overnight before officially tagging it and mentioning it on TWO it's got good conditions ahead but if it gets too strong too quick and moves off WNW-NW it will surely die

The frm 94L is making a comeback I wouldn't be surprised if it did has very good low level structure convection is redeveloping it's getting a move on and it's has returned on the sfc charts as a low also to note conditions around it and leading towards the E Caribbean is not as bad as it was a few days ago
This is up near the North Pole. This buoy farm has been moving toward the Fram Strait. Which since all these were put out on the Arctic ice late last winter, they have all moved that way generally with just the occasional shift in course. We are in one of those shifts right now, where the Arctic surface winds aren't coming from the Pacific, crossing over to the Atlantic. Anyways, the last board fell down & I don't know where the weather station to the left went. The horizon is leaning a little but it seems like it should be in the field of view.

I'll post the full Modis later when it's done making it's complete pic for the day.
Quoting 172. txjac:

Thank you for all of the answers ...

Still hot here 95F and feel like 109-110.
We do have some clouds moving in so temps should go down ...maybe even a shower if we are lucky


Some rain in Galveston county today, got a message that almost an inch fell in Santa Fe, been watching radar, I got some but don't know how much till I get home.
Quoting 117. Naga5000:



Okay, fair enough, let me try to explain this again. The pdf correction uses hindcasts of SST change (events may have been a poor choice, but SST change includes El Nino and La Nina evolution) to adjust for bias in the current forecast, in other words, it assumes that current conditions are similar enough to the hindcasted conditions. Which as I said, they certainly may be, and is the case is a static climate. However, we do know that oceanic heat content has been ever increasing over the same hindcast period, therefore it would make sense that it is likely the pdf corrected version is erring on the lower side of this El Nino evolution based on just that one variable. That's where my statistical knowledge ends, the correction is a great tool, but because the system itself is not like the previous hindcasting, the correction *may need correcting. All I'm saying is it seems probable it is on the lower side of reality.


The CFS NINO 3.4 PDF correction has little to do w/ the columnar depth, it's only hindcasting based on skin temperatures, even though the subsurface is contributing to some of the forcing in the model. Additionally, the sliding base period corrections in the ONI will remove a large proportion of any long-term warming signal that's occurring at either the surface or with depth & partially mask the observational inhomogeneities. The uncorrected CFS runs have not surprisingly continued to adjust downward to the PDF corrected CFS and the PDF corrected CFS currently lies extremely close to the IRI statistical-dynamical ensemble mean, & it's actually above the closest historical analogs, which I presented yesterday from ERSSTv4. The PDF used to adjust CFSv2 NINO forecasts relies on high resolution data from Reynolds OISSTv2, which only spans back to late 1981. Obviously, despite the greater uncertainties earlier in the record, the sample size of analogs to hindcast against by using the entire record of ERSSTv4 is several orders of magnitude larger than OISSTv2, and is more likely to be statistically significant. The average of the 10 closest El Ninos wrt MJJO ONI (minus 1915) yields a peak amplitude of ~+1.7C, however limited number of very strong El Ninos will obviously bias this figure a little low.



On the other hand, the constructed analog from Dr. Huug van den Dool using monthly data is closer to +2.5C. Again, the median & most likely scenario at this juncture lies somewhere in the middle & is close to the IRI ENS mean, around or just below +2C in the tri-monthlies. This is equivalent to the 1888-89 & 1972-73 Upper-end Strong El Ninos, but not quite to the magnitude of the "Super Ninos" of 1982-83, 1997-98, & 1877-78.



Additionally, I'm also satisfied with how close my best estimate of the strong-Super NINOs in the historical record matches up against Dool's 500mb & SST Constructed Analog. It's worth mentioning that even though El Ninos generally favor an amplified PNA response (which is typically more persistent in its positive mode) & a negative AO/NAO (especially later in the winter), a very strong El Nino will actually cause the canonical & amplified Western Hemisphere standing Rossby wave train in an El Nino to shift eastward. An extremely extensive & very strong Pacific Jet that's associated with these powerful El Ninos causes the exit region of the Pacific Jet to also push unusually far to the east, thus leading to a dramatic southeastward displacement & amplification of the Aleutian Low into the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, the +PNA ridge that's usually centered over the Rockies in an El Nino is now driven further to east towards the Hudson Bay & Maritime Canada, hence enticing the northern stream to buckle over Iceland (+NAO) instead of the eastern US.











Here is a concident monthly temperature US composite based on the sextet (SONDJF) averaged & adjusted tri-monthly Bivariate ENSO Timeseries rankings (1877-78 & 1888-89 were excluded because US PSD data is only available thru 1895). The most significant feature in the distribution that's evident across all intensities of El Ninos involves anomalous warmth in the upper midwest & Northern Rockies early in the winter, with majority of the exceptions to this pattern occurring during weak El Ninos. Sample sizes adjacent to each image were also provided in parenthesis.



The following are the top 10 years in the Adjusted SONDJF mean BEST Index. This year could certainly make this prestigious list.

#1 1982-83 +2.35
#2 1997-98 +2.12
#3 1877-78 +2.07
#4 1888-89 +1.65
#5 1896-97 +1.52
#6 1940-41 +1.42
#7 2009-10 +1.37
#8 1965-66 +1.36
#9 1972-73 +1.34
#10 1991-92 +1.23


Dangerous storms, tornado warnings on both cells.

Soudelor is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Assuming the process goes smoothly, the cyclone will have time to re-intensify before approaching Taiwan in 3 days or so.

Quoting 189. wunderkidcayman:

It was a bit of a surprise that I come back and see 95L with decent % and a decent possibility of becoming the next system I see recon is happy to fly into something

PRE-96L has now cleared Africa I guess NHC wants to see how it hades over water overnight before officially tagging it and mentioning it on TWO it's got good conditions ahead but if it gets too strong too quick and moves off WNW-NW it will surely die

The frm 94L is making a comeback I wouldn't be surprised if it did has very good low level structure convection is redeveloping it's getting a move on and it's has returned on the sfc charts as a low also to note conditions around it and leading towards the E Caribbean is not as bad as it was a few days ago


Just to add a bit on frm 94L the only thing it does have against it is it has a bit of dry air to contend with but it does have little to no SAL try not to mix the two
Quoting 194. Articuno:



Dangerous storms, tornado warnings on both cells.




894
WFUS51 KBOX 041839
TORBOX
MAC011-027-041945-
/O.NEW.KBOX.TO.W.0010.150804T1839Z-150804T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
239 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR NEW SALEM...OR 9 MILES EAST OF AMHERST...AND WAS MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEOMINSTER...FITCHBURG...GARDNER...HOLDEN...CLINTO N...ATHOL...
LUNENBURG...LANCASTER...TEMPLETON...RUTLAND...STER LING...WEST
BOYLSTON...WESTMINSTER...ASHBURNHAM...BARRE...PAXT ON...
HUBBARDSTON...BOYLSTON...PRINCETON AND ASHBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN
IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 4233 7168 4236 7236 4249 7240 4264 7186
4264 7177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 254DEG 29KT 4241 7234


DUNTEN

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 1257 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAY ME - KGYX 254 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAY ME - KGYX 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAUNTON MA - KBOX 249 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING BURLINGTON VT - KBTV 245 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 144 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 240 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
TORNADO WARNING     TAUNTON MA - KBOX 239 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING BUFFALO NY - KBUF 236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
Worst Flood in 200 Years — 1.2 Million People Displaced by Rising Waters in India

The Earth has been warmed by 1 degree Celsius over the past 135 years due to hundreds of billions of tons of fossil fuels burned. That’s a pace of warming more than 10 times faster than at the end of the last ice age. And with that one degree Celsius of global temperature increase, we get a 7 percent increase in the rate of evaporation and precipitation. Unfortunately, that heat-driven alteration in the hydrological cycle is not even. In some places, where the heat piles high into great atmospheric domes and ridges, we see excessive drought. In other places, the moisture finds a weak spot in the heat and then we see inundation. The ridiculous country-spanning floods that have now become all-too-common.

Robert Scribbler

2 summers ago , Robert Scribbler was the only person in West following the epic floods along the Amur River between Russia and China, and writing smart detailed reports on them. He does not suffer trolls, so don't go there to pick a fight. He's writing some of best climate blow by blow reporting on the whole web.

And his readers are really becoming a cracker jack research team. Cracker Jack.
Quoting 193. Webberweather53:



The CFS NINO 3.4 PDF correction has little to do w/ the columnar depth, it's only hindcasting based on skin temperatures, even though the subsurface is contributing to some of the forcing in the model. Additionally, the sliding base period corrections in the ONI will remove a large proportion of any long-term warming signal that's occurring at either the surface or with depth & partially mask the observational inhomogeneities. The uncorrected CFS runs have not surprisingly continued to adjust downward to the PDF corrected CFS and the PDF corrected CFS currently lies extremely close to the IRI statistical-dynamical ensemble mean, & it's actually above the closest historical analogs, which I presented yesterday from ERSSTv4. The PDF used to adjust CFSv2 NINO forecasts relies on high resolution data from Reynolds OISSTv2, which only spans back to late 1981. Obviously, despite the greater uncertainties earlier in the record, the sample size of analogs to hindcast against by using the entire record of ERSSTv4 is several orders of magnitude larger than OISSTv2, and is more likely to be statistically significant. The average of the 10 closest El Ninos wrt MJJO ONI (minus 1915) yields a peak amplitude of ~ 1.7C, however limited number of very strong El Ninos will obviously bias this figure a little low.


Thanks for this explanation, as this is more than I knew about the topic. All I was trying to get at is the pdf corrected CFSv2 is most likely lower than what we may see, and in no way was I trying to imply the uncorrected was accurate either. Since the pdf correction relies on hindcasting, there will be some degree of cool bias in the forecast, whether it is significant is another topic all together.

I greatly appreciate the in depth analysis of it, as I am essentially only eye balling the math from the outside view whereas you are right in it with the data.

Quoting 143. ricderr:

now with that said...you talk about static...of which we know with rising temps i would assume the ocean has not been static...however...with using climatology from 1999 to 2010...wouldn't that represent some of the warming we've seen?


Even with a 1999-2010 climatology, if would encompass some, but not all of the warming. Herein, I defer to Webber for further analysis. :)
Quoting 194. Articuno:



Dangerous storms, tornado warnings on both cells.



Been a long day of severe weather up here. Big line moved through this morning, and now a second round. Nothing where I am so far this afternoon, got a few downpours and lots of thunder/lightning from the morning stuff.
Quoting 201. Naga5000:



Thanks for this explanation, as this is more than I knew about the topic. All I was trying to get at is the pdf corrected CFSv2 is most likely lower than what we may see, and in no way was I trying to imply the uncorrected was accurate either. Since the pdf correction relies on hindcasting, there will be some degree of cool bias in the forecast, whether it is significant is another topic all together.

I greatly appreciate the in depth analysis of it, as I am essentially only eye balling the math from the outside view whereas you are right in it with the data.



Even with a 1999-2010 climatology, if would encompass some, but not all of the warming. Herein, I defer to Weber for further analysis. :)


Thanks Naga. As I've shown with IOCADSv2.5, ERSSTv4, ERSSTv3b, Kaplan Extended v2, & HADISST (& will eventually show in the next few years once I completely finish calculating the ONI in ~30 SST & Reanalysis) datasets, the warmest base period in the entire record is actually 1976-2005, the exclusion of the 1976-77/77-78, & 1979-80 El Ninos, and addition of the large multi-year La Ninas in the late 2000s led to a slight cooling in the 1981-2010 base period vs 1976-2005. The 1981-2010 base period used to calculate the OISSTv2 anomalies & PDF correction is the standard for the WMO, the amount of warming in the equatorial Pacific since the implementation of this base period, especially due to the fact that two of the largest El Ninos in the 20th century lie directly within this 30-year base period isn't significant,... yet.... The detection of influence of CO2 on the climate system is most evident at lower frequencies in the multi-decadal & especially in the Super-Centennial bands. Even though some effect in the short-term is certainly present, negligence is assumed at sub-interannual timescales because ENSO is the primary and dominant forcing agent in this window, which along with a host of other quasi-independent modes often temporarily mask the long-term climatic signals.
206. vis0
64 clicks just to enter "."
Quoting 200. ColoradoBob1:

Worst Flood in 200 Years — 1.2 Million People Displaced by Rising Waters in India

The Earth has been warmed by 1 degree Celsius over the past 135 years due to hundreds of billions of tons of fossil fuels burned. That’s a pace of warming more than 10 times faster than at the end of the last ice age. And with that one degree Celsius of global temperature increase, we get a 7 percent increase in the rate of evaporation and precipitation. Unfortunately, that heat-driven alteration in the hydrological cycle is not even. In some places, where the heat piles high into great atmospheric domes and ridges, we see excessive drought. In other places, the moisture finds a weak spot in the heat and then we see inundation. The ridiculous country-spanning floods that have now become all-too-common.

Robert Scribbler

2 summers ago , Robert Scribbler was the only person in West following the epic floods along the Amur River between Russia and China, and writing smart detailed reports on them. He does not suffer trolls, so don't go there to pick a fight. He's writing some of best climate blow by blow reporting on the whole web.

And his readers are really becoming a cracker jack research team. Cracker Jack.


I've been thinking a bit about these 'heat domes', and the record long lasting heat waves in various places in recent years. We know that the polar jet stream is plunging further south than in the past, and that its 'loops' (Rossby waves) have become larger and more persistent in the same place, for longer periods than in the past. This is believed to be due to Arctic warming reducing the temperature contrast between Arctic and temperate latitude air masses.

This must have an effect on air further to the south, keeping it in the same place for longer, and preventing the heat from dissipating northwards, so that the heat builds up. Just a thought.
i still think your (ricderr's) (SPDB) model is out performing most.
Ever since the upgrade from ricderr's earlier MODEL the (CFDB)

the upgrade seems to hold on to genesis points much better.


Sadly i saved none of the CFDB charts (darts kept falling off before it could be capD)

but here is a recent SPDB.



LMAO...you forgot to mention this model must be rain blindfolded
209. vis0

Quoting 109. ricderr:

at the first of each month...i like to look at the previous months enso models and see which one/ones are performing well....it's amazing to me that at around a 30 day mark so many are off and are off quite a bit.......with yesterdays reading coming in at a 1.7C for the 3.4 region....it would appear the gfdl_flor model is right on target.......will have to wait and see how it fairs at the beginning of september



i still think your (ricderr's) (SPDB) model is out performing most.
Ever since the upgrade from ricderr's earlier MODEL the (CFDB)

the upgrade seems to hold on to genesis points much better.


Sadly i saved none of the CFDB charts (darts kept falling off before it could be capD)

but here is a recent SPDB.




...
Sisal Plant Dart Board (SPDB)
Cheap Foam Dart Board (CFDB)

now back to WxNoodling (i think webberweather53's future site is WxNodel??...its a compliment!!! i had tropicaltidbits in the early 1990s (6months) and look at what a great site that name has become thanks to Mr. Cowan...so i can see WxNoodle (i keep misspelling noddle?) l being a place for kids to learn as to scientific charts in a fun atmosphere.  Once they see it can be fun you have a generation that can get into the affects of WHATEVER is affecting the planet be it natural or man influenced all 'cause kids learned early in their life not to be afraid of science but that science is the friend that opens many doors ...whoa went off on an "obtuse tangent".
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 40m40 minutes ago
+4.01 sigma amplitude in our atmos. El Nino index has never been observed during the month of August dating to 1948
    • Quoting 209. vis0:



Sisal Plant Dart Board (SPDB)
Cheap Foam Dart Board (CFDB)


Now that is funny!
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8 p.m. EDT for Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, most of Massachusetts (including Boston), northwestern Connecticut and parts of eastern New York (including Albany).
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9 p.m. CDT for portions of northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, including Goodland and McCook.
ATLANTIC
Now that there's aircraft investigating it, after being well-organized for most of the past few days 95L is becoming discombobulated this afternoon, as the convection (bright white rain/tstorm clouds) has become all strung out and most of it very detached from the surface wind circulation center that can be seen swirling near the SC/NC line.

This may be the beginning of the process of merging with the non-tropical mid-latitude system ... yet the plane has found evidence of tropical storm force surface winds, and measured flight-level winds as high as 61 mph over the water well east of the center.

The decreasing organization presumably would mean NHC won't name it a tropical storm at this late hour, though we'll wait for their official decision.

217. vis0

Quoting 147. LongIslandBeaches:



Well.... I see it as a blockbuster movie that has had many production companies influence its development and release.

"Record Breaking Global Temperatures!"
- Produced by Climate Change Studios
- In association with El Nino Enterprises
- In association with Increased CO2 Media
- Starring Newsworthy Weather Events as "Exhibit A"
REPLY is at:: my zilly blog cmmnt#52
Finally. REAL storm here in Cambridge, MA. Hail that landed on my A/C looked to be about 1 cm in dia.
Lightning mostly cloud-cloud, but one ground strike on EMS radio tower on Cambridge Hospital about two blocks away. BRIGHT flash! LOUD!

409 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2015

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 445 PM EDT
for southern Essex... northwestern Plymouth... Norfolk... Suffolk and
southeastern Middlesex counties...

At 409 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated a line of severe
thunderstorms capable of producing large damaging hail up to Golf
Ball size and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were
located along a line extending from Bedford to Needham to Medway...
moving east at 40 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Boston... Cambridge... Brockton... Quincy... Lynn... Newton...
Somerville... Framingham... Waltham... Malden... Brookline... Medford...
Weymouth... Revere... Peabody... Arlington... Everett... Salem... Billerica
and Beverly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds and destructive hail. Go
inside to an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or
business. Drivers should expect poor visibility and avoid flooded
roads.

This is a very dangerous situation! These storms have a history of
producing destructive winds and large hail. Move inside and stay away
from windows.

Torrential rainfall was also occurring with these storms. Do not
drive through flooded roads.


Lat... Lon 4254 7090 4253 7087 4243 7091 4241 7099
4237 7097 4237 7105 4230 7105 4232 7101
4225 7096 4225 7088 4229 7088 4220 7072
4211 7067 4206 7076 4203 7082 4209 7108
4211 7150 4235 7137 4260 7132 4260 7064
time... Mot... loc 2009z 275deg 34kt 4252 7125 4229 7120 4216 7145


Dunten



TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO 4:21 PM EDT on August 04, 2015
Quoting 189. wunderkidcayman:

It was a bit of a surprise that I come back and see 95L with decent % and a decent possibility of becoming the next system I see recon is happy to fly into something

PRE-96L has now cleared Africa I guess NHC wants to see how it hades over water overnight before officially tagging it and mentioning it on TWO it's got good conditions ahead but if it gets too strong too quick and moves off WNW-NW it will surely die

The frm 94L is making a comeback I wouldn't be surprised if it did has very good low level structure convection is redeveloping it's getting a move on and it's has returned on the sfc charts as a low also to note conditions around it and leading towards the E Caribbean is not as bad as it was a few days ago
I'd be surprised to see either of these move beyond invest stage given current conditions in the MDR. I actually think the newest low has a better chance of being a named something, especially in the short term, if it spins up quickly. It would be great if ex-94L regained enough of its integrity to bring some much needed rain to the eastern Caribbean.


watch out for this tropical wave maybe coming back soon with more rain next to the low

watching!!!
A very impressive wave train over Africa, but no Atlantic tracks to roll on.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on
the low pressure area near Wilmington, North Carolina.

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity
associated with the low pressure area near Wilmington, North
Carolina is poorly organized. However, an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft found an area of gale-force winds over the
Atlantic Ocean well to the east and southeast of the center. There
is still a short window of opportunity for this system to become a
tropical cyclone before it merges with a frontal system Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
gusty winds will continue to spread along the coastal areas of North
Carolina through tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

invest 95L
Quoting 223. stoormfury:

A very impressive wave train over Africa, but no Atlantic tracks to roll on.


Has it rained in St Lucia since late May?
Although the HH found tropical force winds with 95L, it will not be named. Thought it was a tropical storm since last evening, however it will be categorised as a tropical storm in post analysis.


MAYBE INVEST 96L soon
Quoting 167. StormTrackerScott:

Stays wet in FL. Some areas from Tampa to Orlando could have their yearly rainfall averages complete by Septembers end if this keeps up. Then we have a 2C or great El-Nino to keep us wet this Winter. 22" here in Longwood since June 1st.

12Z GFS




Btw I'm at 39.2 since June first and Tampa international has had over30 inches since June first.
Tampa International airport has already surpassed it's yearly average! I'm only one inch shy of mine at 54 inches year to date, where the average is 55! Tampa international airport has had 47 inches year to date and their average is 46 which is weirdly a lower average than other sites around here as I've mentioned before.
Quoting 226. stoormfury:

Although the HH found tropical force winds with 95L, it will not be named. Thought it was a tropical storm since last evening, however it will be categorised as a tropical storm in post analysis.

A poorly-organized area of low pressure well separated from deep convection does not qualify as a tropical storm.
Quoting 220. BahaHurican:

I'd be surprised to see either of these move beyond invest stage given current conditions in the MDR. I actually think the newest low has a better chance of being a named something, especially in the short term, if it spins up quickly. It would be great if ex-94L regained enough of its integrity to bring some much needed rain to the eastern Caribbean.

Yep. This is really the only image that needs to be posted as far as ex-94L is concerned.

Interesting that the NHC hasn't highlighted that wave that just came off Africa. Not much SAL. Shear, which was unfavorable yesterday, has come way down. Very warm waters. And, it's the first one that's really had any model support, although now there is very little. It has a better chance than 93L and 94L ever did IMO. It won't survive too long going west, but I could see a quick spin-up TD/TS.

Side note- Some awesome pictures/videos out of Boston late this afternoon, huge hailstorm hit the city. Missed me though :(
yes Rita Vac we had a torrential downpour last thursday, which caused flooding in some parts. The good thing is the dam has been replenished. we have been getting periods of rain from time to time
Euro on board now with MDR activity.

Quoting 232. stoormfury:

yes Rita Vac we had a torrential downpour last thursday, which caused flooding in some parts. The good thing is the dam has been replenished. we have been getting periods of rain from time to time


Good to hear
Quoting 207. yonzabam:



I've been thinking a bit about these 'heat domes', and the record long lasting heat waves in various places in recent years. We know that the polar jet stream is plunging further south than in the past, and that its 'loops' (Rossby waves) have become larger and more persistent in the same place, for longer periods than in the past. This is believed to be due to Arctic warming reducing the temperature contrast between Arctic and temperate latitude air masses.

This must have an effect on air further to the south, keeping it in the same place for longer, and preventing the heat from dissipating northwards, so that the heat builds up. Just a thought.
[bold mine] Thus supporting the "fewer but stronger" hypothesis regarding tropical cyclones globally. Conducive conditions may be suppressed for longer than usual in previous years, but when those conditions exist the extra heat means more time / room for storms to form, develop, and persist at the upper end of the scale.
Quoting 230. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yep. This is really the only image that needs to be posted as far as ex-94L is concerned.


Agreed.
Nevertheless, that pic is less yellow overall than it would have been 2 weeks ago. Sooner or later we'll see some relenting of the adverse conditions.
236. vis0

Quoting 193. Webberweather53:



The CFS NINO 3.4 PDF correction has little to do w/ the columnar depth, it's only hindcasting based on skin temperatures, even though the subsurface is contributing to some of the forcing in the model. Additionally, the sliding base period corrections in the ONI will remove a large proportion of any long-term warming signal that's occurring at either the surface or with depth & partially mask the observational inhomogeneities. The uncorrected CFS runs have not surprisingly continued to adjust downward to the PDF corrected CFS and the PDF corrected CFS currently lies extremely close to the IRI statistical-dynamical ensemble mean, & it's actually above the closest historical analogs, which I presented yesterday from ERSSTv4. The PDF used to adjust CFSv2 NINO forecasts relies on high resolution data from Reynolds OISSTv2, which only spans back to late 1981. Obviously, despite the greater uncertainties earlier in the record, the sample size of analogs to hindcast against by using the entire record of ERSSTv4 is several orders of magnitude larger than OISSTv2, and is more likely to be statistically significant. The average of the 10 closest El Ninos wrt MJJO ONI (minus 1915) yields a peak amplitude of ~+1.7C, however limited number of very strong El Ninos will obviously bias this figure a little low.

MY SINCEREST APOLOGY TO webberweather53 & his  words, as to not overburden pgs during TS season i edit out much of the body or words. Its in its entirety at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=3061&page=4#commenttop  cmmnt#193 (and at my zilly pg stated below)



The following are the top 10 years in the Adjusted SONDJF mean BEST Index. This year could certainly make this prestigious list.

#1 1982-83 +2.35
#2 1997-98 +2.12
#3 1877-78 +2.07
#4 1888-89 +1.65
#5 1896-97 +1.52
#6 1940-41 +1.42
#7 2009-10 +1.37
#8 1965-66 +1.36
#9 1972-73 +1.34
#10 1991-92 +1.23
my reply at my zilly page cmmnt#52
95L has made landfall. I'm in DE right now. Curious if we'll see any direct effects. At the very least might get some storms from the front that is kicking 95L out.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 20h20 hours ago
TD 14W north of Soudelor spinning east of Japan ... heading west. If in Atlantic, it'd have wall to wall coverage.
.November-Type Gales Hit England in August %u2014 Looks Like a Weird Atmospheric Response to El Nino Climate Change May Be Unfolding

They say that a picture can paint a thousand words. How about a graph that exceeds 100 El Ninos? It may not jump out at you at first, but that%u2019s what we%u2019re looking at above.


Link
Ex 94L has something to prove clearly has a low level circulation..only problems is the dry air surrounding it but its still hanging in hopefully it can provide some much needed rain
Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity
associated with the low pressure area near Wilmington, North
Carolina is poorly organized. However, an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft found an area of gale-force winds over the
Atlantic Ocean well to the east and southeast of the center. There
is still a short window of opportunity for this system to become a
tropical cyclone before it merges with a frontal system Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
gusty winds will continue to spread along the coastal areas of North
Carolina through tonight. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Quoting 238. winter123:

95L has made landfall. I'm in DE right now. Curious if we'll see any direct effects. At the very least might get some storms from the front that is kicking 95L out.

I don't think it's really making landfall. The low has maintained its relative position to the coast since it was in South Carolina. It should now start to accelerate out to sea as the front begins to impinge on its territory. Almost all the weather with this low is on the east side with almost nothing west, and especially over land. You're more likely to see some scattered thunderstorms from the front than any effects from 95L.
This might be the last report I can get out to you guys. The center of the monster that is 95L is currently passing overhead. The barometric pressure has fallen to an incredible 1010mb. The sky is dark, with even some drizzle at times, and the wind is so strong that I even saw a leaf get blown several feet!! I'll go out and assess how bad the damage is when conditions aren't so life threatening.
245. vis0

Quoting 223. stoormfury:

A very impressive wave train over Africa, but no Atlantic tracks to roll on.
Ya need tracks...i just might have a conductor??? Reply at my zilly pg2 cmmnt#53 (if you were born after 1970 nothing to see move on)
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This might be the last report I can get out to you guys. The center of the monster that is 95L is currently passing overhead. The barometric pressure has fallen to an incredibly 1010mb. The sky is dark, with even some drizzle at times, and the wind is so strong that I even saw a leaf get blown several feet!! I'll go out and assess how bad the damage is when conditions aren't so life threatening.

Don't forget your camera!
Quoting 231. MAweatherboy1:

Interesting that the NHC hasn't highlighted that wave that just came off Africa. Not much SAL. Shear, which was unfavorable yesterday, has come way down. Very warm waters. And, it's the first one that's really had any model support, although now there is very little. It has a better chance than 93L and 94L ever did IMO. It won't survive too long going west, but I could see a quick spin-up TD/TS.

Side note- Some awesome pictures/videos out of Boston late this afternoon, huge hailstorm hit the city. Missed me though :(
So far, these wave have just been broad troughs of low pressure with areas of disorganized thunderstorms. None of the waves will have a chance if they can't get more organized in the first 36 hours over water, when conditions are most favorable. There's very dry, stable air ahead of these waves, and anything not well organized will get destroyed. I really fail to understand the fascination some have with ex-94L. It's just one more area of disorganized storms trying to hang on to the ITCZ for dear life. 94L was made an invest last Wednesday, dropped last Saturday, and has not gotten any better organized since. Even the dead have been known to twitch if you stare at them long enough. :-)
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This might be the last report I can get out to you guys. The center of the monster that is 95L is currently passing overhead. The barometric pressure has fallen to an incredibly 1010mb. The sky is dark, with even some drizzle at times, and the wind is so strong that I even saw a leaf get blown several feet!! I'll go out and assess how bad the damage is when conditions aren't so life threatening.
Make sure you check those lawn chairs. They have been known to become missiles in these kinds of vicious storms....
Quoting 247. sar2401:

So far, these wave have just been broad troughs of low pressure with areas of disorganized thunderstorms. None of the waves will have a chance if they can't get more organized in the first 36 hours over water, when conditions are most favorable. There's very dry, stable air ahead of these waves, and anything not well organized will get destroyed. I really fail to understand the fascination some have with ex-94L. It's just one more area of disorganized storms trying to hang on to the ITCZ for dear life. 94L was made an invest last Wednesday, dropped last Saturday, and has not gotten any better organized since. Even the dead have been known to twitch if you stare at them long enough. :-)
In a word ....
RAIN.
Quoting 221. hurricanes2018:



watch out for this tropical wave maybe coming back soon with more rain next to the low
nice tropical wave with a good spin to it


wow!! % went up to green
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This might be the last report I can get out to you guys. The center of the monster that is 95L is currently passing overhead. The barometric pressure has fallen to an incredibly 1010mb. The sky is dark, with even some drizzle at times, and the wind is so strong that I even saw a leaf get blown several feet!! I'll go out and assess how bad the damage is when conditions aren't so life threatening.



How March snow on the ground do you have.
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This might be the last report I can get out to you guys. The center of the monster that is 95L is currently passing overhead. The barometric pressure has fallen to an incredibly 1010mb. The sky is dark, with even some drizzle at times, and the wind is so strong that I even saw a leaf get blown several feet!! I'll go out and assess how bad the damage is when conditions aren't so life threatening.
Enjoy it while u can .... you can't expect to get another system of this caliber coming your way this season ...
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This might be the last report I can get out to you guys. The center of the monster that is 95L is currently passing overhead. The barometric pressure has fallen to an incredibly 1010mb. The sky is dark, with even some drizzle at times, and the wind is so strong that I even saw a leaf get blown several feet!! I'll go out and assess how bad the damage is when conditions aren't so life threatening.
Jim Cantore must be there. LOL
Quoting 233. unknowncomic:

Euro on board now with MDR activity.




Not buying what the Euro's selling here.

waiting for the new update from the national hurricane center!
Quoting 220. BahaHurican:

I'd be surprised to see either of these move beyond invest stage given current conditions in the MDR. I actually think the newest low has a better chance of being a named something, especially in the short term, if it spins up quickly. It would be great if ex-94L regained enough of its integrity to bring some much needed rain to the eastern Caribbean.


I think former 94L has a good chance as well the conditions around it are fairly good in terms of shear (5-10kt straight though from where it is into E Caribbean to about 65W-70W) SSTs (above 26C in fact above 27/28C in places) SAL (little to none in front) low level structure (very very good low level spin shows up well on satellite Scatt images and obs also shows up well in vort maps) the only inhibiting factor is dry air
How ever convection is indeed starting to pop on it if convection can pop more and expand and continue through tonight and tomorrow morning then a full comeback would be imminent at that time IMO

I see NHC has dropped down 95L a bit I say if 95L does develop it would be a very short lived like 3-9hrs TD or sub TD just maybe a SubTS might as well not to bother lol although adding another storm will help will total storm numbers for this year

For E Atlantic AOI aka PRE-96L I agree has the best chance of developing but I hope it doesn't develop quick at all because if it does that then it moves WNW-NW then dies as quick as it develops
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 53. vis0:


forgot to add credits...


A bit late, but thanks vis0, brilliant!
Quoting 241. junie1:

Ex 94L has something to prove clearly has a low level circulation..only problems is the dry air surrounding it but its still hanging in hopefully it can provide some much needed rain


Yes it does and yes that is the only inhibiting factor for it other that that good environmental conditions also convection starting to pop over the LLC
261. SLU
2016 could rival 2010 if this happens









Quoting 253. BahaHurican:

Enjoy it while u can .... you can't expect to get another system of this caliber coming your way this season ...


Right this moment we are making last minute preparations to ride out the coming fury of 94L. I am not sure much will be left after it passes.
On a more serious note I do hope that ex-94L can hold on to enough moisture to bring in some much need shower activity to the Winwards. On the current evidence there may be at least some hope of that.