WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Invest 95L Drenches Florida’s West Coast; Super Typhoon Soudelor Threatens Taiwan

By: Bob Henson 4:17 PM GMT on August 03, 2015

Already reeling from days of heavy rain, the Florida coastline from Tampa to the Big Bend area got an unwelcome visitor on Sunday night in the form of Invest 95L. A well-defined swirl was evident Sunday on satellite imagery just west of Florida’s Big Bend, near the weak south end of a large upper-level low covering much of eastern North America. The National Hurricane Center began tracking the system as Invest 95L at 0000 GMT Monday, with an initial surface wind speed of 30 mph. At 8:00 am EDT Monday, NHC placed the weak center of low pressure over north central Florida. Winds were strongest offshore, with sustained westerly winds of 20 – 30 mph reported on Sunday night at several buoys in the far northeast Gulf. A gust to 42.5 mph occurred at Buoy 42036, according to The Weather Channel’s Stu Ostro. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with 95L has been on its south side, extending into parts of the Florida west coast just north of Tampa Bay.


Figure 1. Infrared image shows a disorganized 95L producing extensive rainfall across central Florida. Image credit:. NASA MSFC Earth Science Office.


Figure 2. Parts of the northwest Florida coast picked up widespread rainfall totals of 10” to 20" in the two weeks ending at 8:00 am EDT Monday, August 3, with additional rain falling later on Monday. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service.

As the upper low shifts east, it will gradually nudge the system northeastward across the Florida peninsula over the next day or so. Some acceleration is expected by midweek as the center finally moves away from Florida. There will be little chance for 95L to intensify much while it remains so close to land, although there is a slender possibility of some strengthening (most likely in a subtropical or hybrid mode) after 95L clears Florida, assuming it travels along the Gulf Stream. NHC gives the system only 10% odds of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. The extremely rich moisture associated with the circulation will continue to sweep onshore, contributing to more episodes of heavy rain. A lingering frontal boundary has kept the northwest Florida coast in deep moisture with frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms, now leading to rainfall totals that are posing serious problems. Tampa International Airport received 4.08” of rain between 6:00 and 11:00 am EDT Monday, on the heels of 3.89” observed on Saturday and 11.84” through July (most of it during the last two weeks of the month). Water rescues took place on Monday morning in Pinellas County, with evacuations ordered of at least one neighborhood near Elfers, Florida, northwest of St. Petersburg. Flash flood watches extended along the coastal counties from Tampa to the Big Bend on Monday morning, with the heaviest rains expected to shift inland later today.



Figure 3. Typhoon Soudelor inflicted mostly minor but widespread damage across Saipan. Image credit: American Red Cross, via Pacific Daily News.

Soudelor brings extensive damage to Saipan
Trees were snapped and power lines brought down across much of Saipan after a miniscule but mighty Super Typhoon Soudelor (not yet a super typhoon at that point) barrelled into the southern half of the island. At 10:54 pm local time on Sunday (8:54 am EDT Sunday), sustained winds of 54 mph and gusts to 91 were reported at Saipan International Airport, located on the south end of the island and close to the tiny south eyewall of Soudelor. Stronger winds most likely occurred in the north eyewall, where the westward motion of the storm would have added to wind speeds. Soudelor was officially classified as a Category 1 storm at this point, but its small-scale structure was virtually impossible to resolve in standard satellite imagery and the typhoon was already rapidly intensifying, so peak winds on Saipan might have been considerably stronger. The Pacific Daily News reported that about 350 people were in shelters at midday Monday, and a state of disaster has been declared. Fortunately, initial reports listed only a few minor injuries.

Part of the U.S. Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas, Saipan extends only about 12 miles from north to south, but Soudelor was even more compact than that. Just before landfall, a National Weather Service NEXRAD radar image showed the eye of Soudelor to be only about 4 nautical miles in diameter, surrounded by an miniature ring of showers and thunderstorms (see Figure 4). This is among the smallest eyes and eyewalls observed anywhere as a tropical cyclone was making landfall. According to the final hurricane-hunter reconnaisance report, 2004’s destructive Hurricane Charley had an eye diameter of 5 nm, within a larger zone of convection than Soudelor, just before making landfall in southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, at the end of a period of sudden strengthening to Category 4 strength. In the open Atlantic, the record-holder for smallest observed eye is another compact tropical cyclone, Hurricane Wilma, whose eye shrank to an amazing 2 nm in diameter while hurricane hunters were in the vicinity. Wilma was another rapidly intensifying cyclone, with peak winds jumping from 150 to 184 mph in less than six hours. (A reconniasance report from 1993’s Hurricane Emily also showed a 2-nm eye, but Emily was only at tropical storm strength and its eyewall was partially open at the time, so it does not reflect the same processes discussed above, and the report could be an error. Thanks to The Weather Channel’s Michael Lowry and Stu Ostro for these examples.)


Figure 4. The pinhole eye of Typhoon Soudelor was evident in NEXRAD radar imagery from 1229 GMT (8:29 pm local time) on August 2, as the typhoon bore down on Saipan from the east-southeast. The island extends roughly 12 miles from its southern to northern tip. Image credit: NOAA, courtesy Mike Middlebrooke, Senior Forecaster, NWS/Guam.


Figure 5. A colorized infrared image of Hurricane Wilma near its peak intensity, collected at 1245 GMT on October 19, 2005. Unlike Soudelor, Wilma had a large shield of intense convection surrounding its tiny eye, which was only 2 nm wide at its smallest. Image credit: NOAA, courtesy Stu Ostro, The Weather Channel.

Now a super typhoon, Soudelor bears close watching
Soudelor carried out a spectacular burst of intensification on Sunday, no doubt aided by its ultra-compact size, which allows for more rapid strengthening. Sustained winds rocketed from 70 mph at 0000 GMT Sunday to 135 mph at 0000 GMT Monday. During the day on Monday, Soudelor continued to impress by carrying out an eyewall replacement cycle clearly evident in 1-km-resolution imagery collected by Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite, with the pinhole eye decaying as a much larger eye developed around it. (Here’s a pair of not-to-be-missed Himiwari-8 satellite loops from Sunday and Monday, courtesy Dan Lindsey/CIRA and Japan Meteorological Agency). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported peak winds of 155 mph in its 1200 GMT Monday advisory, making Soudelor a super typhoon.


Figure 6. An infrared MTSAT image of Super Typhoon Soudelor, collected at 1401 GMT on August 3. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 7. Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite captured this large-perspective view of Soudelor at 1240 GMT on August 3. The island of Taiwan is shown at top left. Image credit: CIRA and Japan Meteorological Agency

With very warm sea-surface temperatures (31°C, or 88°F) along its path and upper conditions remaining favorable, Soudelor could intensify even more by Tuesday. Models agree on a straightforward west-northwest path over the next several days, which puts the typhoon uncomfortably close to northern Taiwan by the end of the week. The latest JTWC outlook (1200 GMT Monday) has Soudelor clipping the island at Category 3 strength. Soudelor could pose a serious threat to Taiwan, where typhoons crashing against high terrain can produce some of the heaviest rainfall rates measured on Earth. Track uncertainty in the 4-5 day time range means that the entire island needs to be on alert. Soudelor will likely move on to strike the east coast of China, although its intensity at this point will be strongly influenced by its eventual trajectory over or near Taiwan.

Guillermo weakens to a tropical storm
At 5:00 am local time (11:00 am EDT) Monday, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center downgraded former Hurricane Guillermo to tropical-storm status, with peak winds of 70 mph. Located near 16.6°N and 146.1°W, Guillermo continued to move west-northwest at about 10 mph. Upper-level wind shear of about 15 knots has contributed to Guillermo’s gradual decline, and further slow weakening is expected, so Guillermo will probably be a fairly weak tropical storm by the time it nears Hawaii late Wednesday. Data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV large-scale reconnaissance mission entered last night’s 0000 GMT Monday model runs, which has resulted in an eastward nudge to Guillermo’s expected track. This further reduces the threat to Hawaii; although the track will take Guillermo on an unusual trajectory paralleling the entire island chain, most models now place Hawaii on the weaker left-hand side of Guillermo. However, only a slight westward shift would put the islands on the stronger right-hand side. In any event, dangerously large swells will affect Hawaii’s east-facing coastlines over the next several days.

Rare August cyclone in the South Pacific
One of the first storm-strength tropical cyclones, if not the first, known to occur in the South Pacific during August is making its way southward with minimal impact. At 0900 GMT, Tropical Cyclone One (not yet assigned a name) was located near 10.9°S, 172.6°E, with sustained winds of 40 mph, just above minimal tropical storm strength. Unusually warm water temperatures associated with El Niño have made the South Pacific unseasonably active. Last month produced Tropical Cyclone Raquel, which struck the Solomon Islands at hurricane strength as the only tropical cyclone on record to occur in the basin during July. Moderate wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures downstream are expected to keep TC1 at minimal intensity for the next couple of days. Currently drifting eastward, TC1 is expected to gradually head southward before eventually dissipating, far from any populated areas.

Pacific Northwest continues to sizzle
Seattle, Washington, and Salem, Oregon, endured their hottest month in more than 120 years of recordkeeping during July, as high pressure kept rains at bay and hot weather in control of the Pacific Northwest. WU weather historian Christopher Burt has a full report on the many records smashed in July across Oregon and Washington, which are on their way to the warmest summer on record. If there’s any upside, it’s that wildfire activity (as measured by acreage burned) is actually below average this summer over the two states, despite the tinder-dry conditions. Cliff Mass (University of Washington) explains the paradox in a recent blog post. For starters, the atmosphere is so suppressed that little of the normal “dry lightning” from low-precipitation thunderstorms is occurring, and winds are too light to kick up any fires that do happen to start. Mass also credits the rapid response of state and federal firefighters this year in snuffing out potential fire disasters.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great Post!
Thanks for the update Dr Masters.
stupid question: Why does the Bay News 9 radar show a lot more moderate rain than WU radar? My WU app shows almost entirely light rain. Bay News 9 still shows some moderate (but turning light).

At 0900 GMT, Tropical Cyclone One (not yet assigned a name)


ya. the south pacific (RSMC Nadi) is really specific when naming cyclones. The gale force winds has to be in all quadrants,.

They only reported 35-40 knots in the southern quadrant.
That little blob of convection off the SE Louisiana coast has brought welcome rain and cooler temps this morning.
Anyone get a page about a 360 rainbow when clicking on the Sunday link in the article ?
Anyone get a page about a 360 rainbow when clicking on the Sunday link in the article ? -MahFL

Yep.
Quoting 9. ChiThom:

Anyone get a page about a 360 rainbow when clicking on the Sunday link in the article ? -MahFL

Yep.


Sorry about that. The Sunday and Monday links should now take you to the proper Himiwari-8 loops. Thanks for the prompt catch!

Bob
I’m currently at 7.20” for the day. That is the highest amount I have received in one day since I’ve had the gauge. And the day is only half way over!
Aww, my little neighborhood in Elfers ranked a shout-out by Dr. Masters! I would be proud, if I wasn't so waterlogged LOL
13. JRRP
Taiwan at top left in Figure 7 (not right as in the caption)?
Link

fires increased over the weekend

rain is NEVER good in the summer

"Our courageous firefighters are on the front lines and we'll do everything we can to help them. Firefighter Ruhl will be remembered for his service and bravery and we extend our deepest condolences to his family, friends and colleagues with the U.S. Forest Service.

Link
Quoting 14. wishingSCsnow:

Taiwan at top left in Figure 7 (not right as in the caption)?


Fixed! Thanks for catching this.

--Bob
What do you expect in the next advisory?









UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 17:43:24 N Lon : 141:03:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 916.3mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.2 degrees
Worst flooding in 65 years according to officials.


Sheriff Nocco: Please be off the roads in Pasco by 3 pm in the AFFECTED FLOODED AREAS ONLY! Flooding is supposed to be worst in 65+ years!
Just recently started raining down here in Fort Myers. I picked up a quick .3" of rain. I'm closely watching all that rain up north to see if it decides to move down into my area.
Many areas north of Tampa have a curfew in place because of all this historic flooding.
Another stat - I'm at 17.84" in the last 11 days, which includes today. Just unreal.

Quoting 2. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Dr Masters.
Try Bob Henson. 
Quoting 21. tampabaymatt:

Another stat - I'm at 17.84" in the last 11 days, which includes today. Just unreal.

Do you have a weatherstation online?
Quoting 23. SunnyDaysFla:


Do you have a weatherstation online?


No. I don't have a PWS, just a digital rain gauge.
Quoting 22. PCCfan:


Try Bob Henson.


My goof--when I first uploaded the post, it had Jeff's byline at top.

Bob
Super El-Nino about to get underway as Kelvin Wave continues to build as a result of recent WWB.

Sure is a pretty monster.

A closer look at the estimated precipitation in the Tampa area over the past 14 days.
The extent of CDG convection has shrunk in coverage over the past few hours despite a warming eye. Soudelor looks in between a T7.5/155kt and T8.0/170kt.

From Fox13 in Tampa. 25" to 30" last 10 days closer to the west coast.

FOX13's Mike Bennett ‏@BennettFox13 27m27 minutes ago
@capitalweather may be an understatement...some parts just NW of Tampa near the coast are closer to 25"-30" in last 10 days
Quoting 29. Sfloridacat5:

A closer look at the estimated precipitation in the Tampa area over the past 14 days.



6" to 8" around here the last 2 weeks.
33. IDTH
Quoting 24. PCCfan:



GFS still spitting out ghost storms.
Quoting 4. BobinTampa:
stupid question: Why does the Bay News 9 radar show a lot more moderate rain than WU radar? My WU app shows almost entirely light rain. Bay News 9 still shows some moderate (but turning light).



More than likely has to do with the difference in color tables between the two sources.
Sanford per the NWS in Melbourne had 9.33" for July nearly matching last years July total.

SANFORD 9.33" 7.73" +1.60" 121%
(SFNF1)
Clermont just west of me about 20 miles or so had its 8th wettest July on record. 2" to 3" fell there this morning.

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER STATION RAINFALL RANKINGS:
-CLERMONT HAD THEIR 8TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 10.97
INCHES FOR THE MONTH.


-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 10.66 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
4.70 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 10TH WETTEST JULY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE.
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

Super El-Nino about to get underway as Kelvin Wave continues to build as a result of recent WWB.




WWB seems still to be going given July

We had 13.07" down here in Fort Myers for July.
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 13.07"
DPTR FM NORMAL: 4.03"
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:

We had 13.07" down here in Fort Myers for July.
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 13.07"
DPTR FM NORMAL: 4.03"


Do you have Miami's total. LOL! I bet they have only a fraction of that.
Raining here..

Will be a tricky forecast if this low pops back over the gulf stream and goes up the SE coast..Our NWS is thinking it will be inland and not over the water..

GFS has been very consistent with this

NWS in Miami

July 2015 Weather Summary
Little Change in Pattern: Wet West/Dry East


August 3, 2015: The sharp difference in rainfall between west and east which began in
June continued in the month of July, as predominant high pressure over the southeast
United States produced east winds across south Florida (Figure 1). These prevailing east
winds focused most of the daily showers and thunderstorms over the western half of
the peninsula, while at the same time limiting precipitation over the east coast metro
areas. The end result is a prolonged period of abnormally dry conditions for the east
coast which as of the end of July is under a severe to extreme drought.
July rainfall varied from as little as 2 inches in sections of Broward County to as much as
13.52 inches in LaBelle (see table below, also Figure 2). On average, the eastern half of
the southern Florida peninsula received from 3 to 6 inches of rain and the western half
anywhere from 6 to 10 inches. Departures from normal showed a similar pattern as
eastern areas continued to run deficits of 3 to 5 inches, with western areas running 2 to
5 inches above normal
deleted, tried to post a pic.
Really warm near Africa.
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:



Do you have Miami's total. LOL! I bet they have only a fraction of that.


Yeah, Miami came in a little below average for the month.
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 5.91
DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.59

And that's with their greatest rainfall of the month on July 31.
GRTST 24HR 2.05 ON 31
a href=" photo 11817238_10153715068344381_4291417930031317740_n.jpg" target="_blank">
Quoting 41. VAbeachhurricanes:

GFS has been very consistent with this





It's a outliner
rain completely dying out now. it's over.
Quoting 44. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Really warm near Africa


No it's not, that's the anomaly, it's actually pretty average:

Quoting 29. Sfloridacat5:

A closer look at the estimated precipitation in the Tampa area over the past 14 days.



I'm in the white dot.
Quoting 52. sonofagunn:



I'm in the white dot.


well son of a gun.. you ARE!
Quoting 51. MahFL:



No it's not, that's the anomaly, it's actually pretty average:


Can't be average if the anomaly is so warm.
Quoting 54. Gearsts:

Can't be average if the anomaly is so warm.


I assumed he was talking about the MDR, the anomalous warmer parts further north don't typically spawn tropical cyclones. The MDR is below average.

NOAA's Weekly ENSO Update hot of the presses.

"During early March, early May, late June/early July, and early August, westerly wind bursts were observed between 140E and 180 (Date Line)

In the last week, westerly wind anomalies have strengthened west of the Date Line."

Anomalously warm waters off the African coast will help with potential development later this week.
Quoting 56. MahFL:



I assumed he was talking about the MDR, the anomalous warmer parts further north don't typically spawn tropical cyclones. The MDR is below average.


MDR is below average but the cost of Africa and south of the Cape Verde islands is warmer than normal.
A reminder of the Atlantic MDR.

Quoting 59. Drakoen:

Anomalously warm waters off the African coast will help with potential development later this week.
Only the gfs shows anything.
Quoting 63. Gearsts:

Only the gfs shows anything.


Too consistent to ignore. It's been forecasting this since last week.
Ocean Heat Content in the Atlantic is zippo :

Quoting 65. Drakoen:



Too consistent to ignore. It's been forecasting this since last week.
its also been forecasting a hurricane to come off north of the cape verde islands. either the model is delusional or it's seeing something the other models aren't. this season feels like your typical dud moderate-strong el nino year.
Quoting 65. Drakoen:



Too consistent to ignore. It's been forecasting this since last week.


Looks like it peaks early before dying out before it reaches the islands.
This Golf Coarse in Tarpon Springs is pretty much all under water now.

Quoting 69. CybrTeddy:



Looks like it peaks early before dying out before it reaches the islands.


Ensemble support is there.

Soudelor now a 180mph Category 5 in the 18z update, the 4th Category 5 this year in the Western Pacific:

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1800 17.8N 140.7E WPAC 155 907



vis. looks like 95 is making a run for the atlantic
Since 2010, there have been only 3 landfalling hurricanes in the US. This must be well below the historical average, but insurance premiums keep going up, regardless. Hurricanes seem to have been suppressed by lack of vertical instability, Saharan dust and shear. In addition, a surprisingly high number of hurricanes have been recurving 'fish storms'

The hurricanes that have hit the US since 2010 are Irene (cat 1) 85 mph in 2011, Isaac (cat 1) 80 mph in 2012, and Arthur which grazed North Carolina as a 100 mph cat 2 in 2014. It seems likely that climate change has had an unanticipated effect on the North Atlantic hurricane season, although there's always the spectre of 2005 to moderate judgement on this.

Anyways, if I was a homeowner on the coast of the south east US, I wouldn't be taking out weather insurance.
Quoting 72. Envoirment:

Soudelor now a 180mph Category 5 in the 18z update, the 4th Category 5 this year in the Western Pacific:

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1800 17.8N 140.7E WPAC 155 907






The eye's contracting again, too. Impressive.
Quoting 72. Envoirment:

Soudelor now a 180mph Category 5 in the 18z update, the 4th Category 5 this year in the Western Pacific:

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1800 17.8N 140.7E WPAC 155 907




Wait where can I find the new advisory?
Quoting 70. StormTrackerScott:

This Golf Coarse in Tarpon Springs is pretty much all under water now.


well I guess they could make it a water park now throw in a few slides some swinging rope be all set

:)
China Meteorological Administration
130 knots (2 min) sustained winds

** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY SOUDELOR 1513 (1513) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC
00HR 17.8N 140.7E 910HPA 65M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
250KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
120KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H
900 hPa from JMA!

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
3:00 AM JST August 4 2015
=========================
near Mariana Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (900 hPa) located at 17.8N 140.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 19.0N 136.5E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
48 HRS: 20.2N 131.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 21.5N 127.3E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
Super Typhoon Soudelor (futura Hanna too), becomes the strongest tropical cyclone so far in this year, and also becomes the strongest tropical cyclone in the world since the Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong):

Vongfong:


VS

Soudelor:






Quoting 70. StormTrackerScott:

This Golf Coarse in Tarpon Springs is pretty much all under water now.



Looks more like a rice paddy field then a golf course. Possible its future use with climate change.

These floods are of course predicted with the atmosphere being able to hold about 4% more moisture per increased degree C,
Burma got quite a lot of flooding this week as well.
Quoting 80. pablosyn:

Super Typhoon Soudelor (futura Hanna too), becomes the strongest tropical cyclone so far in this year, and also becomes the strongest tropical cyclone in the world since the Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong):

Vongfong:


VS

Soudelor:









unofficially the last 900 hPa cyclone was NOUL, (estimated pressure from Hong Kong Observatory)
City of Tampa ‏@CityofTampa 32m32 minutes ago
Mayor @BobBuckhorn "We've never seen this much water in this concentrated a period of time."
Quoting 77. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well I guess they could make it a water park now throw in a few slides some swinging rope be all set

:)


Somewhere there you will see Scott in his swim trunks.
12Z GEM falling in line with what the GFS has been saying for a while now:


12Z GFS


GFS Ensemble Mean


I know this sounds crazy but we need rain again in Texas. It is all gone. Grass is brown, cracks in ground. We could use some 95L or a storm or something!
12Z Euro has another soggy set up for C & N FL come this weekend into next week. Totals less though not the 15" maxes like last week. More like 4" to 5" maxes this go around.

A trough gets pinched off over FL as ridge builds to the north of FL. Basically a repeating pattern.



Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 48m48 minutes ago

Be interesting to see what kind of convective blowup occurs tonight on SE coast with weak low just West SSI
Quoting 83. Skyepony:

City of Tampa ‏@CityofTampa 32m32 minutes ago
Mayor @BobBuckhorn "We've never seen this much water in this concentrated a period of time."




A atmosphere with more Water Vapor today, than a decade ago...does dat.


Do we dare mention that which cannot be mentioned?
Super Typhoon Soudelor is the strongest tropical cyclone by pressure during August month in W. Pacific since Betty in 1987 with 890 mbar.
Quoting 87. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro has another soggy set up for C & N FL come this weekend into next week. Totals less though not the 15" maxes like last week. More like 4" to 5" maxes this go around.

A trough gets pinched off over FL as ridge builds to the north of FL. Basically a repeating pattern.




they keep showing pictures over here of people playing and floating in that flood water. dont they know that also floating with them is sewage from over run pipes and over flowing septic tanks. lots of dog doo from peoples yards. talk about flesh eating bacteria. one lady even had a baby out playing in the water. ignorance.
Quoting 86. BrazoriaMan:

I know this sounds crazy but we need rain again in Texas. It is all gone. Grass is brown, cracks in ground. We could use some 95L or a storm or something!

As much as I would like to see more rain, the current weather pattern over Texas couldn't be more normal. Your description of brown grass and cracks in the ground are all just part of living here. During the summer months, upper level high pressure ridges are the climatological norms. Having lived in Austin for 35 years, I can feel your dry heat. Because of the current El Nino, there should be an abundance of rain come the Fall and Winter seasons.
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 AM HST MON AUG 03 2015

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED
APPEARANCE TO GUILLERMO...WITH DEEP CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WHILE SAMPLING THE INNER CORE OF GUILLERMO LAST EVENING...FAILED TO
FIND FLIGHT LEVEL OR SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER. THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 4.0/65KT FROM PHFO...JTWC AND
SAB...WHILE FINAL T NUMBERS WERE LOWER AT 3.5. ADDITIONALLY...THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATED A CURRENT
INTENSITY T NUMBER OF 4.0 AND A FINAL T NUMBER OF 3.5. RELYING
HEAVILY ON THE FACT THAT THE AIRCRAFT FAILED TO FIND 64 KNOT WINDS
DURING THE MISSION LAST EVENING THROUGH GUILLERMO...ALONG WITH A
1220Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE CONTINUED
RAGGED PRESENTATION IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE 1500Z
INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...
GUILLERMO HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON A COUPLE
CENTER FIX POSITIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT MISSION LAST EVENING ALONG
WITH EXTRAPOLATION USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
RESULT...THE CURRENT MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...300
DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM IS GUIDED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY 1600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING ALOFT RUNNING ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE RIGHT OR NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE IMPROVED SAMPLING
OF THE SYSTEM BY THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT ON ITS SYNOPTIC SAMPLING
MISSION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS HAS ALSO
INCREASED IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WE
HEAVILY RELIED ON A COMBINATION OF THE TVCN...GFS...AND THE HWRF
SOLUTIONS WITH A SIZEABLE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE RIGHT OR NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADVISORY.

THE LATEST UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED 14 KNOTS
FROM 270 DEGREES...WHILE THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS SHOWED 16 KNOTS
FROM 285 DEGREES. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUED
RAGGED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...OUTFLOW
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WILL BECOME FURTHER DISRUPTED AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ICON...WITH SHIPS PREDICTING MORE RAPID
WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST AND INITIAL WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA LAST EVENING AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY TRENDS OF GUILLERMO.

AS GUILLERMO MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII...WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WITH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY
FROM THE CENTER.

ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO GUILLERMO IS SCHEDULED
FOR THIS MORNING. THE VALUABLE DATA TRANSMITTED IN REAL-TIME FROM
THESE MISSIONS WILL HELP US TO BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION...
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. IN ADDITION...THE NOAA
G-IV JET IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION
AROUND GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SAMPLING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AND IMPROVE THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR
GUILLERMO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.6N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.2N 147.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.9N 148.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 18.7N 150.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.6N 152.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.4N 155.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.1N 159.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 25.0N 164.1W 30 KT 35 MPH


maybe a yellow x by tuesday night
It could be possible that we are seeing the beginnings of another heavy rain band form this time more across N C FL. Well see how the next few hours go as the HRRR models have been showing another burst come this evening into the overnight.

SAL clearing out really nicely, all thanks to our healthy Cape Verde Wave Train.
BAM. Nice collision right over West palm Beach.

SAL clearing out really nicely, all thanks to our healthy Cape Verde Wave Train.
No shortage of heat in the SSTs to keep the moister coming.

I'd have set it at 150kts... but that's splitting hairs. Soudelor is a monster. Eye continues to warm. Only thing keeping estimates down a little is the fact that CDO convection isn't quite as cold as we see in the very strongest storms. Lack of spiral banding is characteristic of an annular storm, but the eye is quite small for such a storm. I'd expect another EWRC to start within 36 hours, maybe less. It should weaken somewhat as it approaches Taiwan, but it will remain a powerhouse until moving inland, and should grow in size as well.

101. TXCWC
Current African wave being picked up on for possible future development (4-5 days) by GFS, its ensemble, and GEM

img src="">

Already evident spin in mid levels of wave

img src="">

Mid & Low level moisture environment not bad

img src="">

img src="">

Current 30-40knot windshear near African Coast will inhibit development next few days but should decrease over time

img src="">
Quoting 92. MrNatural:

As much as I would like to see more rain, the current weather pattern over Texas couldn't be more normal. Your description of brown grass and cracks in the ground are all just part of living here. During the summer months, upper level high pressure ridges are the climatological norms. Having lived in Austin for 35 years, I can feel your dry heat. Because of the current El Nino, there should be an abundance of rain come the Fall and Winter seasons.


I believe you are describing normal patterns for the hill country and interior Texas. Along the coast the norm is afternoon pop-up thunderstorms with the seabreeze. We have not had rain since the end of June in the Houston area.
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:

BAM. Nice collision right over West palm Beach.




Yes, a very interesting boundary that's firing off across southern Florida and extends from out in the Atlantic all the way into the GOM.
Quoting 72. Envoirment:

Soudelor now a 180mph Category 5 in the 18z update, the 4th Category 5 this year in the Western Pacific:

13W SOUDELOR 150803 1800 17.8N 140.7E WPAC 155 907





The CDO is getting better defined. Soudelor could still strengthen even more.
Quoting 99. PlazaRed:

No shortage of heat in the SSTs to keep the moister coming.




It appears another swath of thunderstorms is about to take shape this time across the Northside of Orlando. Will have to watch to see if this does indeed happen as there is a swath of near 2.4" PWAT's left across the northside of Orlando from a trough axis left behind from 95L.

PWAT's
There is a convergence zone extending from Citrus County over to Volusia County. Will it activate tonight is the question.
Pouch 15L now has a low pressure associated with it at 1008 mb. The wave is not playing around.
If the Atlantic do not want to repeat the fiasco of 2013 and 2014 he needs to use his intelligence now in August. Strong MJO on the region of Cape Verde and Africa. Probable formation Cape Verde.

Quoting 66. MahFL:

Ocean Heat Content in the Atlantic is zippo :




HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!
HOW THE FETH COULD THIS HAPPEN?!?!?!?!?!?!
Looks like localized flooding should be developing just north and west of Palm Beach. Storms are firing over the same location with little movement.
A few lines of an article about the floods and damage caused by the storm which hit Burma last week.

"Hothouse Rains Destroy More than 17,000 Homes in Myanmar — Bangladesh, India Also Inundated."

Link
Quoting 85. TXCWC:

12Z GEM falling in line with what the GFS has been saying for a while now:


12Z GFS


GFS Ensemble Mean



We can all trust the Gem when it shows a TC.
Maybe the GFS wasn't on drugs near 384 hrs. ECMWF spans a tropical storm in the exact same area, the only difference is that the ECMWF forecasts this scenario in 10 days, and the GFS forecasts it in about 16 days.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 46m46 minutes ago
Max sustained 1-min winds at 155-knots & gusts to 190 knots/220 mph. While not same scale/phenomena, #Souledor is EF5 on tornado scale, too.
Quoting 113. intampa:

according to ted cruz global warming aint happening.. heres the quote Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said on Sunday that there is no factual basis behind research that shows that the planet is heating up. Cruz%u2019s comments were made during a conference in California hosted by Freedom Partners -- a nonprofit that is partially funded by the Koch brothers."If you look at satellite data for the last 18 years, there has been zero recorded warming. The satellite says it aint happening, Cruz reportedly said at the conference, accusing climate scientists and government researchers of falsifying data. there cooking the books. They actually adjusting the numbers.wow , just wow.
Yes, wow. Where climate science--or pretty much any science--is concerned, Ted Cruz is in way over his head.

I wish all candidates for higher office could be required to pass a 7th-grade science test. I realize that would cut a lot of political careers short, but there are far too many nasty things facing the United States over the coming decades for us to waste time on non-serious types like Cruz who are more interested in siphoning campaign dollars from the likes of the Koch brothers than they are in preserving the nation and the planet...
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:

Yes, wow. Where climate science--or pretty much any science--is concerned, Ted Cruz is in way over his head.

I wish all candidates for higher office could be required to pass a 7th-grade science test. I realize that would cut a lot of political careers short, but there are far too many nasty things facing the United States over the coming decades for us to waste time on non-serious types like Cruz who are more interested in siphoning campaign dollars from the likes of the Koch brothers than they are in preserving the nation and the planet...


haha - I couldn't agree more. I teach 6th - 8th grade science, and I know they would definitely fail the course exam.
As SAL continues to gradually clear, more sunlight is reaching the ocean's surface, allowing Central Atlantic sst's to slowly warm, as evident here.
Meanwhile,what's going on in Nino 3.4 Mr STS??? I ses some oceanic cooling has occurred,as of recently.
Quoting 102. Greg01:



I believe you are describing normal patterns for the hill country and interior Texas. Along the coast the norm is afternoon pop-up thunderstorms with the seabreeze. We have not had rain since the end of June in the Houston area.


Houston averages less than 4 inches of rain in July and August, or about half or less than the climatological average monthly precip for Central Florida in these months, so While Houston may not be as hot and dry as the interior Hilly country TX over the summer, I wouldn't consider the summer to be reliable rainy season in Houston. But, it's also a bit deceiving, because Houston is kind of a battle ground between the drier west and wetter southeast, so some years it can be very rainy, other years very dry, tis true for monthly precip also.
Quoting 119. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Maybe the GFS wasn't on drugs near 384 hrs. ECMWF spans a tropical storm in the exact same area, the only difference is that the ECMWF forecasts this scenario in 10 days, and the GFS forecasts it in about 16 days.


The location of the Euro storm is hilarious.
hawaii is short on rainfall so this moderate cyclone is mostly beneficial
A line from comment 106, KOTG.

"We're the first generation to feel the impact of climate change. We're the last generation that can do something about it," Obama told a sympathetic audience at the White House."

I would change the wording slightly to :-
We're the last generation that COULD HAVE DONE something about it!

The thing with the climate change it that humans have knocked over the first domino in a long line, the rest of the domino's don't need to be knocked over they fall on their own all the way down the line, unless something takes a few domino's out of it to make a gap and nobody has yet worked out how to do that.
Quoting 113. intampa:


"If you look at satellite data for the last 18 years, there has been zero recorded warming. The satellite says it aint happening, Cruz reportedly said at the conference, accusing climate scientists and government researchers of falsifying data. there cooking the books. They actually adjusting the numbers.wow , just wow.
Ah yes, that noted scientist, Ted Cruz. I doubt he has even a vague idea of what "the satellite [sic]" he's talking about is or what it does.

He apparently is not aware that non-government scientists are also saying the planet is still warming, unabated.

Not that he really gives a rip. He will say this stuff to stay in the race whether it is true or not.
130. JRRP
84h near CV
Quoting 124. tiggerhurricanes2001:

As SAL continues to gradually clear, more sunlight is reaching the ocean's surface, allowing Central Atlantic sst's to slowly warm, as evident here.
Meanwhile,what's going on in Nino 3.4 Mr STS??? I ses some oceanic cooling has occurred,as of recently.




there is no cooling do not go buy what that map says it can not be tursted here are today readdings from the CPC


nino 1.2 2.7

nino 3 2.1

nino 3.4 1.7 went up from last update

nino 4 1.0



like i saide do not go by what the CDAS maps are showing there is no cooling going on what so ever in nino 3.4 in fact we show not even uesd them maps giveing on wrong they are and how far off the game they are this go by what the CPC show on there weekly update that will give you how strong are EL nino is and not by the CDAS maps
World's Glaciers Melting At Fastest Rate Since Record-Keeping Began

"Globally, we lose about three times the ice volume stored in the entirety of the European Alps every year."


The world's glaciers have melted to the lowest levels since record-keeping began more than 120 years ago, according to a study conducted by the World Glacier Monitoring Service that was released on Monday.

The research, published in the Journal of Glaciology, provides new evidence that climate change has spurred the rapid decline of thousands of the world's ice shelves over the past century. The first decade of the 21st century saw the fastest loss of ice since scientists began tracking it in 1894 -- and perhaps in recorded history, WGMS reported.

"Globally, we lose about three times the ice volume stored in the entirety of the European Alps every year," Michael Zemp, director of the WGMS and lead author of the study, told The Huffington Post.

On average, the world's glaciers will lose 30 inches of ice thickness this year, Zemp said. That's twice the rate lost in the 1990s, and three times the rate lost in the 1980s.

The news comes just a few months before many of the world's leaders gather in Paris for the United Nations Conference on Climate Change. The planet's leading scientists have emphasized the importance of reaching a deal, saying there is "no plan B" if the talks fail.

"We’re getting used to the message that glaciers are melting," Michael Zemp, director of the World Glacier Monitoring Service, said.
The latest news on ice melt continues a trend of worrying statistics. The planet saw the warmest year on record in 2014, and researchers observed the lowest maximum ice extent ever seen earlier this year. All of that lost ice will very likely contribute to catastrophic sea level rise, which some scientists predict could approach 10 feet in the next 50 years.

Preliminary data for the past five years suggest that the melting has continued at an alarming rate, and the "bad news is getting worse," according to Zemp. Up to 90 percent of the glaciers in the European Alps could disappear by the end of the century.

"We’re getting used to the message that glaciers are melting," Zemp said. "But we should not get too used to it."

Glaciers often provide a highly visual signifier of climate change that can be a more effective message than statistics. While it can be hard to feel a tenth of a degree in temperature change over time, the collapse of an ice sheet is hard to ignore, Zemp said.

"I always say to people, 'Go take your children and sit in front of the glacier and take a picture, then go back every year,'" he said. "It reminds you of what you could lose."
the 12z Navgem ensembles is showing some support on a tropical wave currently in the Central Atlantic bringing it off the coasts of GA/SC at the end of the 240 hour run

Ghost storm?
a few famous storms have come out of africa at a high latitudes. they tend to have wsw heading through the atlantic
Quoting 125. Jedkins01:


Houston averages less than 4 inches of rain in July and August, or about half or less than the climatological average monthly precip for Central Florida in these months, so While Houston may not be as hot and dry as the interior Hilly country TX over the summer, I wouldn't consider the summer to be reliable rainy season in Houston. But, it's also a bit deceiving, because Houston is kind of a battle ground between the drier west and wetter southeast, so some years it can be very rainy, other years very dry, tis true for monthly precip also.


Very true - and just to add a wrinkle, the official station at Intercontinental airport is some 50 miles inland from where I live (Clear Lake area). Seabreeze downpours never register that far inland. Houston is one sprawled out mess ;-)
Quoting 126. TimSoCal:



The location of the Euro storm is hilarious.

Both scenarios will probably never happen, for the simple fact that sst's there are a little to cool for development, however, the sst's are above average.
maybe the models show the northern part of the wave as the more dominant one. Any way, if the MJO does come back to the Atlantic, we will eventually get something whether it is weak or strong. Model support is inconsistent so we just have to wait and see.
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:

non-serious types like Cruz who are more interested in siphoning campaign dollars from the likes of the Koch brothers than they are in preserving the nation and the planet...


Don’t forget about pandering to people in coal states for votes. The will claim they are going to stop Obama’s “war on coal”. Of course the war is already over and coal lost. Any politician arguing otherwise is uninformed, dumb or lying.

Few if any new coal plants are going to be built in this country again. In order for the investment in a new plant to make sense the plant needs to operate for 50 years. In a future of flat or declining power demand, growth of renewables and the potential for expanded distributed generation new coal is dead. Even if the industry gets some short term regulatory or legislative wins no investor is going to bet on being able to run a coal power plant in 30 years.

The same trends apply to existing plants. The older plants require large capital investments to comply with today’s regulation, let alone those coming in the future. These investments just don’t make sense given the likely future market environment.

The question at this point is how quickly the coal power industry shrinks. According to the EIA in 2005 coal produced 49.6% of US electric power. In 2014 coal produced 38.7%. Year to date for 2015 it is producing 34.4%. (I just looked up the year to date information. That is a big drop for 2015. Anyone know anything about that? There was talk that coal was stabilizing over the last 3 years. If that data is correct it appears another bid drop in coal market share is under way)

Carbon capture or some other technology may keep coal alive as a part of the US energy mix but the days of coal dominating are over.
140. JRRP
Quoting 135. islander101010:

a few famous storms have come out of africa at a high latitudes. they tend to have wsw heading through the atlantic

like this ?
Quoting 134. PCCfan:

Ghost storm?

Maybe, however, the GFS has been CONSISTENT on this.
coals expensive natural gas is almost free. save the coal for future generations.
Quoting 140. JRRP:


like this ?


And i believe that was an el nino year,so anything's possible.
Quoting 74. yonzabam:

Since 2010, there have been only 3 landfalling hurricanes in the US. This must be well below the historical average, but insurance premiums keep going up, regardless. Hurricanes seem to have been suppressed by lack of vertical instability, Saharan dust and shear. In addition, a surprisingly high number of hurricanes have been recurving 'fish storms'

The hurricanes that have hit the US since 2010 are Irene (cat 1) 85 mph in 2011, Isaac (cat 1) 80 mph in 2012, and Arthur which grazed North Carolina as a 100 mph cat 2 in 2014. It seems likely that climate change has had an unanticipated effect on the North Atlantic hurricane season, although there's always the spectre of 2005 to moderate judgement on this.

Anyways, if I was a homeowner on the coast of the south east US, I wouldn't be taking out weather insurance.

That is being pretty short-sided in thinking. You don't buy insurance expecting to cash in on it, but buy insurance in case a disasters strikes.
146. TXCWC
Quoting 117. Gearsts:

We can all trust the Gem when it shows a TC.


When combined with the GFS and associated ensembles it shouldn't be discounted
Quoting 91. intampa:

they keep showing pictures over here of people playing and floating in that flood water. dont they know that also floating with them is sewage from over run pipes and over flowing septic tanks. lots of dog doo from peoples yards. talk about flesh eating bacteria. one lady even had a baby out playing in the water. ignorance.


The solution to pollution is dilution! Goes for the gene pool too.
Wow, what a day and stretch of a couple weeks this has been in the Tampa Bay area to top it all off with an unusually severe flood event for parts of the area.! I was at work earlier so I couldn't take part in the mess while it was happening. Anyways, it's not that the Tampa Bay area hasn't seen a number of these events over it's history, but it's the fact that we've been getting drenched for the past few weeks like we've been getting impacted by multiple tropical cyclones. I picked up 3.44 here in my gauge today after getting 0.78 yesterday, 3.35 Saturday, 2 other events with 4 inches in one day in the past 3 weeks, and 15.6 in the past 10 days! I also had 18.84 for July which added to the first 3 days of August yields a whopping 26.31 in just under 5 weeks here!

The crazy thing is, some places had much more than I did today and for July in parts of the area,. This has been a historic flood event due to the accumulation of multiple heavy rain events in the past few weeks!

Here are yet again more flooding pictures below from my neighborhood this is the worst so far of the summer and the worst since tropical storm Debby here!

Though these pale in comparison to flooding in parts of the Tampa Bay area where numerous roads have been closed due to major flooding, including major roads. Along with water rescues and flooding into homes and businesses.



My street during heavy rain and the flooding:



This is a scene from a parking lot at work this morning. This shockingly was taken around 9 AM, deep convective squalls were so dense and heavy it drowned out most of the light when normally it would be pretty bright:



Rain totals below from official observation locations in the Tampa Bay area the past 10 days, crazy stuff!

Hey Jedkins, 3.94" today? You're a lightweight:). I doubled that.
95L...



Quoting 142. islander101010:
natural gas is almost free.
Eh?



save the coal for future generations.

Save future generations: leave the coal in the ground.
Quoting 151. GeoffreyWPB:

95L...




She/he's headed right for the sweet spot from the last two seasons.
154. beell
Quoting 152. AdamReith:

Eh?



save the coal for future generations.

Save future generations: leave the coal in the ground.


save the coal for future generations.

I know I'm not supposed to, but that did elicit a wry chuckle here. But then I usually laugh at all the wrong things...

Cheap enough to levy a production tax on the fracking gas to fund production tax credits for renewables?
155. JRRP
4 days and NHC do not said nothing
Will the African wave go plop, plop, fizz, fizz?

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1100 AM HST MON AUG 03 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUILLERMO IS MAINTAINING A RATHER RAGGED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
ARE DISPLACED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE
VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON
DATA HAVE BEEN CRUCIAL IN HELPING LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE RAGGED CLOUD MASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITIES FROM JTWC AND SAB CAME IN AT 55 KT WHILE PHFO CAME IN
AT 65 KT. THE CIMSS ADT AT 1800 UTC WAS ALSO 55 KT. LASTLY...THE
ADJUSTED WIND DATA FROM THE USAF WEATHER RECON MISSION PRODUCED 53
KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. USING A CONSENSUS OF THESE VALUES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KT.

GUILLERMO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE USAF RESERVE WEATHER RECON FLIGHT THIS
MORNING FOUND THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE FORECAST TRACK PROJECTION. THE ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 310/10 KT. WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK SHIFT...AND ALSO
POSSIBLY DUE TO ADDED DATA FROM ONGOING AERIAL RECON MISSIONS...THE
OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED NORTHWARD WITH EVEN THE OUTLYING
UKMET TAKING GUILLERMO NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND GFS THROUGH 48
HOURS THEN SOUTH OF THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME.

ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...GUILLERMO WILL BE CONTINUING TO MOVE
TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS
SHEAR PROJECTIONS SHOW VALUES GOING ABOVE 20 KTS BY 12 HOURS AND
ABOVE 30 KTS AT 60 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
PROJECTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS GUILLERMO MOVES CLOSER TO HAWAII...WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE DECISION TO HOLD
OFF ON A WATCH ISSUANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND THE WEAKER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WITH
CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST
IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 146.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.2N 148.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.1N 149.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.0N 151.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.9N 153.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 22.9N 157.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 25.0N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 26.0N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Quoting 155. JRRP:

4 days and NHC do not said nothing

NHC maybe waiting for tuesday morning around 8am
Stunning - to say the least.
160. JLPR2
x-94L showing some signs of life with some sheared convection to the SW of the weak spin.

Quoting 149. Bucsboltsfan:

Hey Jedkins, 3.94" today? You're a lightweight:). I doubled that.


Good grief, I actually meant to put 3.44, not sure why I put 3.94, was a misprint, LOL.

But have you had over 15 inches like me in the last 10 days? The flooding we had today was much worse than usual due to the fact that we've had like 3-4 tropical cyclone-like drenching rain days the past few weeks, and plenty of heavy rain just about every day in between. BTW, I've had nearly 40 inches since June 1st and am already at 53 inches of rain for the year, which is just shy of the average YEARLY precip here of 55 inches!

Again, I love heavy rain and thunderstorms, but this is just crazy. I'm also a Florida beach lover, so while I've loved this crazy summer, at times it's been a bit too much, and we could really use some drying out for a bit and get some more consistent sun, which should happen this week. Rain chances are expected to be a bit below average for mid week, so we'll have more sun on the way.
Quoting 142. islander101010:

coals expensive natural gas is almost free. save the coal for future generations.


I don't know if you heard, but Orlando Utility Commission just struck a deal that will get us solar at 7 cents per kwh compared to the 8 cents of natural gas/coal.
Hi after a while from Germany which is still bone dry in its central parts and more to the south as well. And the heat is picking up once again and could reach 40C (104F) in parts of Germany and/or Poland on Friday or Saturday, dooh!

Here a nice little video of a dust devil which caused some excitement in the open air techno-festival Nature One on Sunday a little north of me at the former missile base of Pydna, sending tents high above into the sky:



Some more heatwave news:

Heatwave causes electric network to conk out in north Cyprus
Temperatures of 42C (107,6F) have been recorded in Nicosia and the central plains today.

Jordan in full gear to face unprecedented heat wave
The heat wave, which began disturbing Jordan Sunday, increased temperatures in some areas of the energy-poor country to over 45 degrees Celsius (113F), according to officials.

Massive sandstorm sweeps Jordan

From the link above: The blistering heatwave, which began Thursday and is expected to continue throughout the week, has seen temperatures rise past 41 degrees Celsius in Amman (the highest recorded since 2010) and 45 degrees in Aqaba.
In Israel, temperatures hit 49 degrees Celsius (120F) in the southern Jordan Valley, surpassing all previous records, according to the Israel Meteorological Service.
In the northern Golan Heights, temperatures ranged between 38-40 degrees Celsius, and residents on the coast felt slightly cooler temperatures of 31 degrees Celsius, but with 80% humidity.
The heatwave has sent temperatures soaring past 50 degrees Celsius (122F) in Iraq, leading the government to declare a four-day mandatory holiday. Meanwhile, Iran this week felt temperatures as high at 72 degrees Celsius (161,6F), leading some weather experts to say that Iran could be witnessing some of the hottest weather in urban environments ever seen by mankind.
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



Good grief, I actually meant to put 3.44, not sure why I put 3.94, was a misprint, LOL.

But have you had over 15 inches like me in the last 10 days? The flooding we had today was much worse than usual due to the fact that we've had like 3-4 tropical cyclone-like drenching rain days the past few weeks, and plenty of heavy rain just about every day in between. BTW, I've had nearly 40 inches since June 1st and am already at 53 inches of rain for the year, which is just shy of the average YEARLY precip here of 55 inches!

Again, I love heavy rain and thunderstorms, but this is just crazy. I'm also a Florida beach lover, so while I've loved this crazy summer, at times it's been a bit too much, and we could really use some drying out for a bit and get some more consistent sun, which should happen this week. Rain chances are expected to be a bit below average for mid week, so we'll have more sun on the way.


Last night Dennis Phillips said there are signs we could go back to this pattern over the weekend. Thoughts?
Quoting 155. JRRP:

4 days and NHC do not said nothing


Am I the only one who see's this or idk

Quoting 164. Bucsboltsfan:


Last night Dennis Phillips said there are signs we could go back to this pattern over the weekend. Thoughts?

The poor boy is beginning to exhibit signs of "Rain Madness" - don't push him over the edge!!
Soudelor's at 180 mph! :O
About to get 'Feet Wet'

Local meteorologist here in Fort Myers said we should be returning to our normal summer time rainy season pattern. For us, that means mid to late afternoon thunderstorms each day.
We'll see if that's the case. For the past two weeks the rain has been very random (morning, afternoon, evening, and over night).

Quoting 153. TimSoCal:



She/he's headed right for the sweet spot from the last two seasons.


Actually that deep convection seems to be popping up north and south of COC and swirling inwards like a funnel as soon as it approached the water.

May see a Claudette scenario out of this... a sudden flare up and designation.

That will likely be how 85% of this year's storms will form, considering the consistently hostile environment in the Atlantic.
Quoting 89. Patrap:




A atmosphere with more Water Vapor today, than a decade ago...does dat.


Do we dare mention that which cannot be mentioned?

I remember a huge rain event in Tampa about 20 years ago where 7-8 inches rain fell in one day and flooded roads.......Mother Nature does dat
Quoting 170. superpete:

About to get 'Feet Wet'





and watch it go POOF
175. MahFL
Quoting 86. BrazoriaMan:

I know this sounds crazy but we need rain again in Texas. It is all gone. Grass is brown, cracks in ground. We could use some 95L or a storm or something!


I was in Galveston last month for a week and we had no rain at all. In fact before I went they said it was forcast to be the driest ever July in Galveston.
177. JLPR2



I would welcome the decaying remains of a storm.
178. MahFL
Ex 94L could be making a comeback :

179. vis0

Quoting 52. sonofagunn:



I'm in the white dot.
more like the point of an exclamation mark , the W coast of FL being the exclamation mark

03/2032 UTC 18.0N 140.2E T7.5/7.5 SOUDELOR -- West Pacific
Quoting 178. MahFL:

Ex 94L could be making a comeback :





or not
either the GFS has a real northern bias or we will get a storm that far north... i find it mind boggling but we shall find out
Quoting 178. MahFL:

Ex 94L could be making a comeback :


lol better chance of 95l turning into a major hurricane...
Quoting 173. sanflee76:


I remember a huge rain event in Tampa about 20 years ago where 7-8 inches rain fell in one day and flooded roads.......Mother Nature does dat



My statement is one of fact.

Science is like dat.

Hurrah! I see sun. And that whirlwind was surprising.
As I hadn't time to be around very often the last days I don't know whether someone has posted news of a very severe storm which has hit Florence/Italy on Saturday evening. Lots of videos are available. Here just one of the immediate aftermath:



Florence mulls refugees for storm clean-up
The Local, Published: 03 Aug 2015 10:35 GMT 02:00
Tuscany's leaders are considering making refugees help clean up Florence after the Tuscan jewel was the battered by a violent storm on Saturday evening.
The storm lasted for two hours, with an entire month's worth of rain falling on the city, causing flooding in many areas.
Water even entered the famous Uffizi art gallery, home to countless works of priceless art. A video of the intense rainfall and flooding can be seen below.
During the tempest, hailstones pounded the city and smashed windows, while strong winds uprooted trees and sent them slamming into buildings - some areas of the city were also hit by a tornado.
Power lines went down, plunging the city into darkness, while train services were stopped for nearly five hours.
The storm hospitalized 19 people, caused the roof of one building to collapse and has left the city in a state of disrepair.
Mayor Dario Nardella has declared a state of emergency and has met with the region's president, Enrico Rossi, to discuss how to best deal with the clean-up. ...


And the extreme monsoon floodings in Asia of course are all over international news. Here a summary from The Guardian:

Deadly floods leave trail of destruction across southern Asia
More than 100 people have died and up to 1 million have fled their homes, with areas of Burma declared disaster zones and India also badly hit
The Guardian, Jason Burke in Delhi and agencies, Monday 3 August 2015 13.35 BST


An aerial view of a flooded village in Kalay township at Sagaing division, Myanmar, August 2, 2015.REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun. Source: Article from Reuters.

BTW, thanks to Bob Henson and everyone in here following and posting about the interesting and threatening developments of all those tropical storms/hurricanes/typhoons and the flooding in Florida. Very useful for me as well when time is rare to catch up with all those many (too many!) weather news all around the world!
The Pacific Pulses... How El Nino keeps coming and going in 2015.



That wave leaving Africa is really massive with a lot of spin or counterflow. Click the picture to enlarge.
189. JRRP
the ensembles are less enthusiastic
18z

12z
The Atlantic CV Season has begun as we are a full 5 weeks from the Climo Peak, Sept 10....

So strap in, Pop a cold Fresca and maybe check the supplies, the genny, the evac availability of visiting Grandma in Wyoming if needed.

Have a plan, a outline and a way to get outta Dodge if need be.

What you do this week, can make the difference then, when it counts.









Quoting 184. Patrap:




My statement is one of fact.

Science is like dat.



My statement is of fact as well my Cajun amigo!
Its incredible with that monstrous MSC that hit the Tampa area this morning that we in Sanford did not get a single drop of rain!! everything just seemed to evaporate once it hit Seminole county! Scott mentioned those models indicating 3-5" rain in Orlando and boy were they wrong. This event was once again a West Coast event. These models can be WAYYYYY OFFFFFF
The Sunset of Antarctica’s Ice Shelves: A Conversation With NASA’s Ala Khazendar

A team led by Ala Khazendar at NASA JPL was responsible for the study. Dr. Khazendar focuses on combining satellite observations and additional data to model Antarctic ice shelves and their possible future behavior. One goal of his work is to quantify Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise.

As Dr. Khazendar discusses in our conversation, while he does his best to maintain a scientist’s detachment through the rigor of his work, he nonetheless acknowledges that the impact of his findings are “staggering.”


Link
Quoting 191. Patrap:

The Atlantic CV Season has begun as we are a full 5 weeks from the Climo Peak, Sept 10....

So strap in, Pop a cold Fresca and maybe check the supplies, the genny, the evac availability of visiting Grandma in Wyoming if needed.

Have a plan, a outline and a way to get outta Dodge if need be.

What you do this week, can make the difference then, when it counts.










Compelling video. Instead of cat on a hot tin roof it was car on a wet asphalt roof. Don't procrastinate prepare now. You could have a major spring up from a swirl and at your door step in a matter of days like Andrew did. Its been awhile for the US coastline but it will happen again.
Here's the latest ERSSTv4 ONI data for MJJ. The new value of 1.02C is the 6th highest since 1870, behind 1902, 1905, 1940, 1987, & 1997.



ERSSTv4 is considerably cooler with the current El Nino event when compared to HADISST & OISSTv2, and the raw SST values are lower than what's being shown for ERSSTv3b. Speaking of which, I also just finished up the latter portion of the record for HADISST, unfortunately the updates to this dataset lag by 1 month & the data for MJJ will not become available until early-mid October.

HADISSTv1.1 (1990-present) tri-monthly ONI



Here are the 28 years in descending order (wrt to MJJ ONI) (including this year) with ERSSTv4 MJJ ONI values >.5C. About two-thrirds of years that meet this criteria in MJJ observe El Nino conditions persist through at least the rest of the year. Obviously, those odds increase in conjunction with initial intensity, (assuming this year should easily meet the ONI criteria), as the all of top 10 highest MJJs occurred in concert with incipient &/or developing El Ninos. If initial conditions lend any clue to this event's eventual climax, the 10 closest El Ninos in terms of initial intensity (excluding 1915 which became a Nina), would forecast a tri-monthly ONI peak of ~ 1.6-1.7C in the late fall, which is a few tenths of a degree below the IRI dynamical-statistical model consensus & is likely a conservative estimate given the incident conditions in the tropical Pacific. An upper-end Strong El Nino with ONI peak at or just below 2C, similar in amplitude to 1888-89 & 1972-73, is the median scenario at moment.

Quoting 191. Patrap:

The Atlantic CV Season has begun as we are a full 5 weeks from the Climo Peak, Sept 10....

So strap in, Pop a cold Fresca and maybe check the supplies, the genny, the evac availability of visiting Grandma in Wyoming if needed.

Have a plan, a outline and a way to get outta Dodge if need be.

What you do this week, can make the difference then, when it counts.











Good advice grounded in the science of dealing with storms.
Global warming...a fact that's irrefutable except for those looking at the graphs upside-down. A fact.
The theory of atmo 2.0, now with 10% extra water vapor! that leads to more big rain events...a theory. Possible.
The theory of more frequent/extreme cyclones affecting the GOM...a theory. Possible. I'm still going with my theory of the chubby ballerina with water weighed down limbs..woomph.
The fact of home insurance rates going up....a fact.


Another nice looking Wave about to exit the African coast. Will this one go poof like the others before it? Only time will tell.
Quoting 197. Webberweather53:

Here's the latest ERSSTv4 ONI data for MJJ. ... ERSSTv4 is considerably cooler with the current El Nino event when compared to HADISST & OISSTv2, and the raw SST values are lower than what's being shown for ERSSTv3b .... (and so on)

天文台發出酷熱天氣警告 .... Please, Webber!!! Considerate that there are uneducated folks like me on this blog who might think you're talking Chinese, lol ...

Quoting 139. ndscott50:


,,,, According to the EIA in 2005 coal produced 49.6% of US electric power. In 2014 coal produced 38.7%. Year to date for 2015 it is producing 34.4%. (I just looked up the year to date information. That is a big drop for 2015. Anyone know anything about that? There was talk that coal was stabilizing over the last 3 years. If that data is correct it appears another bid drop in coal market share is under way)

Carbon capture or some other technology may keep coal alive as a part of the US energy mix but the days of coal dominating are over.

Coal is a dying industry.

Coal has to compete head-to-head with natural gas, nuclear, hydropower, wind and solar today, just as in the past. What's changed is that natural gas is cheap and wind and solar are both now market priced below coal in many instances. There's an Austin TX based utility that just secured a long-term solar PV contract to purchase wholesale electricity at below 5 cents per KWH. Nationwide, major wind farms are offering their electricity for about the same. Coal can't compete at this price point.

The end of coal as a primary energy source for electricity is in rapid transition to becoming absolutely obsolete. If we were wiser, we would have forced this necessary change about four decades ago, when the EPA was created, and not now when we're allowing global warming to become a crisis.

***
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a dead end. You double the cost of producing electricity from coal when you capture the carbon. This is simply economically uncompetitive and utterly pointless (unless you own the coal mine).
202. JRRP
Quoting 199. HurriHistory:


Another nice looking Wave about to exit the African coast. Will this one go poof like the others before it? Only time will tell.

really is a big one
Quoting 200. barbamz:


%u5929%u6587%u53F0%u767C%u51FA%u9177%u71B1%u5929%u 6C23%u8B66%u544A .... Please, Webber!!! Considerate that there are uneducated folks like me on this blog who might think you're talking Chinese, lol ...


Lol, sorry I just get really excited when the ERSST data files update at the beginning of the month...

Link

I simply refuse to wait the extra few days that it often takes the CPC to finally update their Historical ENSO events page...
Link
Quoting 164. Bucsboltsfan:



Last night Dennis Phillips said there are signs we could go back to this pattern over the weekend. Thoughts?


I said that days ago. Dennis was probably watching my post on here. J/K
Quoting 173. sanflee76:


I remember a huge rain event in Tampa about 20 years ago where 7-8 inches rain fell in one day and flooded roads.......Mother Nature does dat


I agree.
Just got 4 inches in two hours south of Gainesville. according to the Doppler radar storm total.

http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/NTP/JAX_NTP_Legen d_0.gif
Quoting 131. Tazmanian:





there is no cooling do not go buy what that map says it can not be tursted here are today readdings from the CPC


nino 1.2 2.7

nino 3 2.1

nino 3.4 1.7 went up from last update

nino 4 1.0



like i saide do not go by what the CDAS maps are showing there is no cooling going on what so ever in nino 3.4 in fact we show not even uesd them maps giveing on wrong they are and how far off the game they are this go by what the CPC show on there weekly update that will give you how strong are EL nino is and not by the CDAS maps


Thanks Taz.

Quoting 163. barbamz:

Here a nice little video of a dust devil which caused some excitement in the open air techno-festival Nature One on Sunday a little north of me at the former missile base of Pydna, sending tents high above into the sky:


Perhaps a more exciting headline?:

  • "German youth attempt to overthrow law of gravity at Nature Fest!"
Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



Thanks Taz.



i was starting too wounder when you would say some in about that post you are so welcome
Quoting 209. Tazmanian:




i was starting too wounder when you would say some in about that post you are so welcome


3.2 to 3.4 ESPI values are causing some issues with the CDAS readings. 2C anomalies are reaching 160W now as opposed to the 140W just last week. This means our first 2C reading for Nino 3.4 is getting very close now.

its rumbling here.

Quoting 100. MAweatherboy1:

I'd have set it at 150kts... but that's splitting hairs. Soudelor is a monster. Eye continues to warm. Only thing keeping estimates down a little is the fact that CDO convection isn't quite as cold as we see in the very strongest storms. Lack of spiral banding is characteristic of an annular storm, but the eye is quite small for such a storm. I'd expect another EWRC to start within 36 hours, maybe less. It should weaken somewhat as it approaches Taiwan, but it will remain a powerhouse until moving inland, and should grow in size as well.




Imagine this making landfall in Tampa Bay this week...
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:



3.2 to 3.4 ESPI values are causing some issues with the CDAS readings. 2C anomalies are reaching 160W now as opposed to the 140W just last week. This means our first 2C reading for Nino 3.4 is getting very close now.




wow cant wait
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
9:00 AM JST August 4 2015
=========================
About 440 KM East Southeast of Okinotori-shima

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (900 hPa) located at 18.3N 139.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 19.2N 135.4E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Southwest of Okinotori-shima
48 HRS: 20.4N 130.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
72 HRS: 22.1N 126.4E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:



3.2 to 3.4 ESPI values are causing some issues with the CDAS readings. 2C anomalies are reaching 160W now as opposed to the 140W just last week. This means our first 2C reading for Nino 3.4 is getting very close now.


Regarding comment# 197.

Plus, plus plus!
The scoop on the MJJ ONI at +1C, been waiting for that!

Current weekly Nino 3.4 values at +1.7C are a long way from blowing past 97-98, but anything can happen.
Quoting 186. barbamz:




Wow, looks like they were hit with a hurricane!
This is the first wave I have observed this season with white in it. Cold cloud tops!!

Quoting 215. Gearsts:




I'm very curious to see how CDASv1 stacks up against HADISST, ERSST, COBE SST, NCEP/NCAR R1, etc...

This is the CDAS1 NINO 3.4 region surface temperature data file (January 1949-Present) I derived from the IRI library
Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 191. Patrap:

The Atlantic CV Season has begun as we are a full 5 weeks from the Climo Peak, Sept 10....

So strap in, Pop a cold Fresca and maybe check the supplies, the genny, the evac availability of visiting Grandma in Wyoming if needed.

Have a plan, a outline and a way to get outta Dodge if need be.

What you do this week, can make the difference then, when it counts.









I left fort lauderdale in the middle of August 1992 to hike Glacier National Park, the day Andrew hit I was lucky to be trapped in 2 feet of snow coming out of the back country.
It's easy to forget how elite Typhoon Haiyan was at peak intensity. I look at storms like Soudelor, which are incredibly impressive, and say "wow, that's not too far away from what Haiyan looked like at peak..." and then I look at satellite archives and see just how different they are.

Soudelor at peak this afternoon:



Haiyan at peak:

Good blog.
228. SLU
LOL @ the GFS