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Little Change to 94L; Hawaii Watching Guillermo; TC 2 Kills 27 in Myanmar/Bangladesh

By: Jeff Masters 1:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2015

A strong tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa on Wednesday (Invest 94L) was located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Thursday morning, and was headed west at 15 mph. 94L does have conditions that favor some slow development over the next few days. Satellite images show that 94L has a decent amount of spin, but only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have not increased in organization this morning. Wind shear off the coast of Africa is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 28°C, and the atmosphere is reasonably moist. The 8 am Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain moderate over 94L for the next five days, but ocean temperatures beneath it would cool to 26°C by Sunday, at which time 94L will encounter an increasingly dry and stable airmass courtesy of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL). The SAL is dominating most of the tropical Atlantic, from the coast of Africa into the Central Caribbean, making 94L's long-term survival questionable. If 94L does manage to make it to the Caribbean, the high wind shear that has dominated the region all summer will likely tear the storm apart. The Thursday morning ensemble runs of the GFS and European models--done by running the models at lower resolution and varying the initial atmospheric conditions slightly to generate an "ensemble" of twenty potential weather situations (fifty for the European model)--do have a number of their 20 - 50 runs that develop 94L into a tropical depression, but none of these solutions have the storm that develops making it as far west as the Lesser Antilles Islands. The operational high-resolution versions of our three top models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--have one model, the European model, that does show possible development of 94L into a tropical depression by Sunday. In their 8 am Thursday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook., NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 30%, respectively.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L near the Cape Verde Islands.

Hawaii should watch Guillermo
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Guillermo has formed, and is something Hawaii should watch. Both the GFS and European models show Guillermo (or its remnants) getting within 500 miles of the islands by Tuesday, though the storm should be weakening at that time due to dry, stable air and cooler ocean temperatures.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Two in the Bay of Bengal as seen at 05 UTC July 30, 2015, from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. JTWC gave top winds of 40 mph to the system, which made landfall over Bangladesh. Image credit: NASA.

Bay of Bengal's Tropical Cyclone Two kills 27
Tropical Cyclone Two made landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, on Thursday morning, bringing heavy rains and deadly landslides to portions of Bangladesh and Myanmar. At least 27 people have been killed in Bangladesh and Myanmar from the storm, according to an article by TWC's Nick Wiltgen. The coastal city of Chittagong reported 879 millimeters (34.61 inches) of rain in just a four-day period July 24 through 27 from the storm.

This may be my last post for a week, as I plan on taking some vacation time and turning the blog over to Bob Henson. He will have the latest installment in our "what to expect from El Niño" series--on how El Niño might affect winter weather in the Eastern U.S.--late this morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
You can name 02B Komen, Dr. Masters.
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Prayers to the families and friends that lost a loved one from Tropical Cyclone 2. Such a beautiful, but dangerous system.

Meanwhile, 94L in the west Atlantic..

Thanks Dr. Masters. It appears invest 94L is a 'dry' run for the rest of the Cape Verde season.
Lots of colors all over the place on current TCFP future run.. Maybe the most I have seen.

What about system development in the GOM?
Many intensity models predicting 94L to reach at least tropical storm strength. Track guidance all over the place!



Thanks Dr. Masters, enjoy your vacation. I can't imagine 34+ inches of rain in 4 days, looks like the remnants of 02B are still providing plenty of rain.

Thank You Dr. The current big pictures; The West-Pac from Himawari which includes the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, Guillermo, and the West-Atlantic:
Full Disk



Cyclonic Storm KOMEN

*information posted at 11:30 AM IST*
Storm surge guidance for Bangladesh coast:
Tidal wave (storm surge plus astronomical tide) of about 2 meters would inundate low lying areas of Bangladesh coast around the point of landfall.
Quoting 7. JustDucky251:

What about system development in the GOM?




Don't think that much is going to happen in the Gulf; continued trof and shear is too high for development. Some models spin something up off the Eastern Seaboard but shear is very high there also at the moment:







Some models suggest that a system might spin up off the Eastern Coast and there is some surface vort out there but if it did, shear notwithstanding, it would spin off to sea and not be a threat (marginal storm at best):

Current Surface Vort:
Just for fun, and probably wont happen.. End of gfs run has a system in the west Atlantic.

Guillermo really needs to be watched.. in latest GFS run it definitely gets extremely close to Hawaii.. it turns north just before it can landfall... Either way, it's going to effect the islands even if It does make the turn.

GFS 156 hours out:

Another system to take note of is the large typhoon forecasted by the GFS almost 200 hours out landfalling in China. Still far out, but a real possibility..

Guillermo has very scary model runs for it's track... hope it's wrong!

Quoting 18. Torito:

Just for fun, and probably wont happen.. End of gfs run has a system in the west Atlantic.




You never know it just may happen

It will be that time of year you know
Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:

Some models suggest that a system might spin up off the Eastern Coast and there is some surface vort out there but if it did, shear notwithstanding, it would spin off to sea and not be a threat (marginal storm at best):

Current Surface Vort:



Thanks for the follow-up.
Hardly any rain expected across the Caribbean thru mid August.


Stays wet here in FL. Picked up 2.26" from a strong thunderstorm which brought a lot of branches down in areas yesterday here in Altamonte but @ my house .44" fell just 5 miles away. Either way that puts me @ 12.99" westside of Longwood for July.

Also there was lots and lots of lightning yesterday the most we've seen in a couple of weeks.

28. JRRP
Quoting 26. StormTrackerScott:

Hardly any rain expected across the Caribbean thru mid August.




well the MDR looks like will be active in Aug
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

Stays wet here in FL. Picked up 2.26" from a strong thunderstorm which brought a lot of branches down in areas yesterday here in Altamonte but @ my house .44" fell just 5 miles away. Either way that puts me @ 12.99" westside of Longwood for July.

Also there was lots and lots of lightning yesterday the most we've seen in a couple of weeks.




Hi Scott. We picked up 1 inch yesterday. Lawns are getting greener.
Gulf is beginning to have more darker blue colors.
Quoting 26. StormTrackerScott:

Hardly any rain expected across the Caribbean thru mid August.





Puerto Rico's drought is getting worse. Hopefully the MDR will allow some beneficial rains in August. It doesn't look good now.
thanx for the update doc.....we had a wonderful evening in el paso......rain.....thunder and lightning....almost an inch of rain in under 24 hours....nothing unheard of but still unusual.......we were left with minor street flooding.....the city was and still is littered with traffic accidents...so far i haven't heard of any flooding which would be typical in the upper and lower valleys......
i thought i'd provide this pic as an inspiration for our young would be mets.......robert speta....who was a regular poster here years back while doing his stint for the navy as a met....is now doing weather for NHK World in japan.....


13W could be our next super typhoon. Intense convection already consolidating over the center.
Little Change to 94L!! invest 94L START TO WEAKING SOON!! this invest 94L needs for rain in the center of this low1


What about system development in the GOM? littie Vort in the gom

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

Guillermo's convective pattern continues to improve, with a solid
band curving about half way around the center of circulation.
Dvorak classifications were T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt
from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 40 kt.
This could be somewhat conservative, given that the latest objective
ADTs are around 45 kt.

The environment ahead of Guillermo looks plenty favorable for
continued strengthening. Upper-level outflow is expanding around
the cyclone, and Guillermo should remain in a light-shear
environment for at least the next 3-4 days. In addition, sea
surface temperatures are about 29 degrees C, and the atmosphere is
moist and unstable. Additional strengthening is anticipated during
the next few days, and there remains a 1 in 3 chance of rapid
intensification during the next 24 hours. Given the favorable
environment, the official intensity forecast is a little above the
intensity consensus for the entire forecast period. It should be
noted that the HWRF model shows a stronger hurricane than is
indicated in the official forecast, bringing Guillermo to category 2
strength in about 3 days. Some weakening should occur by days 4 and
5, mainly due to increased shear and lower oceanic heat content.

Guillermo is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, to the south
of the subtropical ridge. The global models indicate that a mid-
to upper-level low located about 1000 miles west of southern
California will deepen and amplify during the next few days, which
should produce a break in the subtropical ridge. The track models
are in good agreement during the first 48 hours, and most of the
spread beyond that time is due to speed differences. An overall
westward shift in the guidance envelope necessitated an adjustment
to the official track forecast from 48 hours and beyond, and it
lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 9.1N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 9.9N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
Quoting 33. rmbjoe1954:



Puerto Rico's drought is getting worse. Hopefully the MDR will allow some beneficial rains in August. It doesn't look good now.


It's odd this year as Sal is more pronounced but pressures are actually lower. What really stands out is this sea surface configuration across the Atlantic. This is about as worse conditions as you will ever see.

Thinking we need to keep one eye on the northern GOM in a few days. A few hints that something might get going. I see models for 94L have shifted north.
Quoting 39. hurricanes2018:

Little Change to 94L!! invest 94L START TO WEAKING SOON!! this invest 94L needs for rain in the center of this low1

Could you please try to explain what you are trying to say. 'Start to weaking soon" Huh? and "needs for rain in the center of this low" Huh?
Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:





And I am still sticking to my '10 storms' this season.
Quoting 46. rmbjoe1954:



And I am still sticking to my '10 storms' this season.


It's going to be hard to get to that number as conditions just don't look good at all. What will be interesting is the long range CFS is forecasting another very strong MJO & WWB come late August and that could derail the Peak of Hurricane Season as all the activity gets focused across the Pacific. Lots of if's and this is very long range but something to keep an eye on. I will say though the CFS did a great job in predicting this last Record MJO weeks in advance.
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:



It's odd this year as Sal is more pronounced but pressures are actually lower. What really stands out is this sea surface configuration across the Atlantic. This is about as worse conditions as you will ever see.



Thanks for the chart Scott.
The mid Atlantic not only looks bad, the northern Atlantic also looks very strange with all that cool water about and the warm water cut off at about the 40 degrees north line.
There's a vibrant little storm off Newfoundland which will be tracking over the north Atlantic later this weekend.
This is odd. It is absolutely pouring where I live in Tampa---and there is nothing on radar.
edit; okay something popped up
Quoting 48. PlazaRed:


Thanks for the chart Scott.
The mid Atlantic not only looks bad, the northern Atlantic also looks very strange with all that cool water about and the warm water cut off at about the 40 degrees north line.
There's a vibrant little storm off Newfoundland which will be tracking over the north Atlantic later this weekend.


That configuration is the kiss of death to this years Hurricane Season. One of the strangest sea surface set up's ever seen across the Atlantic.
let's look at some 5 day models...but first a word from my announcer.......




This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Quoting 3. Torito:

Meanwhile, 94L in the west Atlantic.


I assume you meant East Atlantic ?
Quoting 50. StormTrackerScott:



That configuration is the kiss of death to this years Hurricane Season. One of the strangest sea surface set up's ever seen across the Atlantic.


Link 1 for the winds in the north Atlantic.

Link

Link 2 for the Gulf Stream and temps SSTs.

Link

I find it all astounding!
Quoting 54. PlazaRed:



Link 1 for the winds in the north Atlantic.

Link

Link 2 for the Gulf Stream and temps SSTs.

Link

I find it all astounding!


It is. I find it very interesting that the warmest SST's are well removed from the MDR and located far to the north. This north of that warmest water are very cold anomalies to the north. Strange!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I never thought I would see a pic of Bill Cullen on a weather blog! I love it! Now I have to find a pic of Wink Martindale. :)
Quoting 53. MahFL:



I assume you meant East Atlantic ?


of course. lol sorry.
the cmc......is just not impressed....and at 120 hours it says goodbye to our little friend in the MDR
Quoting 59. ricderr:

the cmc......is just not impressed....and at 120 hours it says goodbye to our little friend in the MDR


Wait... The CMC isn't predicting a cat 5 monster??? It must really be nothing then.
Quoting 22. wunderkidcayman:



You never know it just may happen

It will be that time of year you know

I agree..it can very well happen. And, nothing personal to the person who said it probably wont, but just in general when a model shows something it dosent mean it CANNOT happen it could very well happen so people need to stop immediately assuming all these systems can't happen because they can and in the past have...just not in the past couple years. (unless its like 300 hours out then people can doubt a little)