WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Invest 94L Off the Coast of Africa May Slowly Develop

By: Jeff Masters 3:29 PM GMT on July 29, 2015

The first African tropical wave worthy of being classified by NHC as an area of interest (an "Invest") has emerged from the coast of Africa, and lies a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Invest 94L has conditions that favor some slow development over the next few days. Satellite images show that 94L has a decent amount of spin and a small but growing area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear off the coast of Africa is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 28°C, and the atmosphere is reasonably moist. These conditions should allow for some slow development as the system heads west at 15 mph the next two days. However, 94L faces a rugged path ahead of it. The 8 am Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain moderate over 94L this week, but a massive area of dry, dusty air from the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) is dominating most of the tropical Atlantic, from the coast of Africa into the Central Caribbean. As 94L moves into the Central Atlantic this weekend, the storm will encounter increasingly dry, stable air, making development difficult. If 94L does manage to make it to the Caribbean, the high wind shear that has dominated the region all summer will likely tear the storm apart. The ensemble runs of the GFS and European models--done by running the models at lower resolution and varying the initial atmospheric conditions slightly to generate an "ensemble" of twenty potential weather situations (fifty for the European model)--do have a number of their 20 - 50 runs that develop 94L into a tropical depression, but none of these solutions have the storm that develops making it as far west as the Lesser Antilles Islands. The operational high-resolution versions of our three top models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--show only weak development of 94L over the next few days. In their 8 am Wednesday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook., NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.


Figure 1. Invest 94L between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on Wednesday morning, July 29, 2015. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis for 8 am EDT Wednesday, July 29, 2015, from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows plenty of dry air dominating the tropical Atlantic.

Hawaii should watch Invest 91E
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Eight-E is encountering dry, stable air and should dissipate well before reaching the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaii should be more concerned with Invest 91E, which both the GFS and European models show getting within 500 miles of the islands by next Wednesday. In their 5 am PDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91E 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 90%, respectively.

In the Western Pacific, all looks to be quiet until at least Saturday, when the European model predicts a new tropical depression will form about 1500 miles east of the Philippines' Luzon Island.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Two in the Bay of Bengal as seen at 05 UTC July 29, 2015, from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite. JTWC gave top winds of 40 mph to the system, which was expected to move slowly onshore over Bangladesh. Image credit: NASA.

Bay of Bengal's Tropical Cyclone Two generating heavy rains
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center are issuing advisories on Tropical Cyclone Two in the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, which is bringing heavy rains to portions of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Tropical cyclones embedded within India's monsoon rarely grow into strong tropical storms, but can be prodigious rain makers. India's monsoon has been 12% below normal in rainfall as of July 22, so the country could use more rainfall--though perhaps not in the concentrated manner a monsoon tropical storm typically delivers, causing dangerous flooding rains. Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to move slowly onshore over Bangladesh and weaken over the next few days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 491. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my birthday and right around same time I was born too right to the minute funny weird creepy all at the same time


At least your nickname makes sense to me now.

Freakishly High Temperatures Trigger Ice Melt, Flooding and Mudslides in Tajikistan


“Climate change is bringing various challenges to the life of the local population,” Kurbonbek Rustambekov, a hydrometeorologist in Badakhshan, told IRIN News in 2007. “In the last five years, we have observed a rise in local temperatures of up to 3 degrees centigrade here.


Link
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

It's hard to believe but based on the National Weather Service, Tampa has only had 9.8" of rain this month (as of July 28th). As a side note Tampa received 12.67" as of the same date last year (2014 July).

It must be raining everywhere but their official reporting station up there.
Here in bradenton, about 30 miles south of tampa, it's only rained 7.81 this month (according to my vantage pro 2).
Quoting 493. wunderkidcayman:

Ok 2am TWO is out with no changes which I am surprised but not surprised

Contradicting?
invest 94L needs to get more t.storms or rain soon
Good Morning..

NCEP site is back up running..

00z run
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOES satellite imagery show that the cloud pattern has become better
organized with numerous cyclonically curved convective bands around
the center of circulation. The upper-level outflow has improved
during the past several hours. Dvorak T-numbers are now 3.0 and
2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Thus, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Guillermo with an initial intensity of
35 kt. Guillermo is the seventh tropical storm of the 2015 eastern
north Pacific hurricane season.

The environment of low shear and warm SSTs is quite favorable for
strengthening, and Guillermo will likely become a hurricane in about
36 hours. The probability of rapid intensification included in the
SHIPS guidance is 32 percent. After 72 hours, both cooler ocean and
increasing shear will likely induce gradual weakening. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the intensity consensus.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-
northwest or 285 degrees at 13 kt. Guillermo is well embedded within
the deep easterly flow south of a moderate subtropical ridge. There
is high confidence that this pattern should keep the cyclone on this
general track for the next 2 to 3 days, given that the guidance is
tightly clustered during that period. After that time, Guillermo
will reach the western edge of the ridge and will turn more to the
northwest toward a mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous one and is basically on top of the consensus
of the ECMWF and the GFS global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 8.5N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 8.9N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 10.1N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 11.2N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.2N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 141.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.3N 144.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
acc/ to my computer screen 94l has only 3 inches to get to 50w.
Can't wait as we get closer to the peak of the season.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs®ion=atltropics&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015073 006&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=161
Quoting 514. wunderweatherman123:

Can't wait as we get closer to the peak of the season.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?m odel=gfs®ion=atltropics&pkg=mslpa&runtime =2015073 006&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=161
Yep, more healthy Cape Verde waves coming off West Africa.


wind shear still to high here! i see the low withall the clouds on the south of this low



HERE IS INVEST 94L
519. beell
Quoting 505. trunkmonkey:



Why isn't this quote banned, you ban everything else, how naive you folks are!


Somebody will wake up in a few minutes. Use the flag if you want.


something going to happern in the GOM to its starting to go up now that %
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands. Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 520. hurricanes2018:



something going to happern in the GOM to its starting to go up now that %
The models have been hinting at something happening there too, and the conditions there are favorable.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands. Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
To my opinion 94L will never arrive remotely close to the Antilles, if it survives. We have to wait for another future TC, if so.


DOOM!!!!!
529. beell
Quoting 522. Climate175:

The models have been hinting at something happening there too, and the conditions there are favorable.



-12 hrs


Current (09Z at time of post).
Quoting 521. Climate175:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands. Although this system is currently producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms, further development, if any, should be
slow to occur while it moves westward near 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Georgia coast is accompanied by disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. The low is expected to move
northeastward parallel to the southeastern coast of the United
States with no significant development, and is forecast to merge
with a frontal system by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 524. Climate175:




At this point staying at status quo is best thing IMO

94L ain't too bad at this time however it needs to start rebuilding convection soon
Interesting intensity models. It's about a 50/50 chance of development into a tropical storm.
Quoting 529. beell:




-12 hrs


Current (09Z at time of post).
Glad to see that my favorite name this year will be given to a storm with some serious potential. Its forecasted track is extremely dangerous, this will be way funnier to track than some crappy system in the Atlantic.







Quoting 531. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Interesting intensity models. It's about a 50/50 chance of development into a tropical storm.


Yeah I would say 50/50 chance
Quoting 533. NoobDave:

Glad to see that my favorite name this year will be given to a storm with some serious potential. Its forecasted track is extremely dangerous, this will be way funnier to track than some crappy system in the Atlantic.









Just because this is an el nino year doesn't mean we will have crappy systems. NOW YOU CAN GET THAT STRAIGHT.
SAL is still not too much ahead it, there is more to the north but it is currently moving westward at 16 mph.
Quoting 535. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Just because this is an el nino year doesn't mean we will have crappy systems. NOW YOU CAN GET THAT STRAIGHT.

Hey take it easy on the new guy

Although I would please ask the noob to not call any system crappy
Although if you do want a "crappy" system you can look at TD8-E despite this being an El Niño year dispite TD8-E being in the prime location this year for storm the best it could come up with is a TD
Quoting 491. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my birthday and right around same time I was born too right to the minute funny weird creepy all at the same time
Good morning Keep...I think kinda neat, not creepy..Everything is connected..I believe in the Zero Point Field Theory..
It looks like the winds have increased from 25mph to 30mph, and has increased speed a bit from 15 to 16 mph.
NCEP Ensembles -Later

06z

Quoting 535. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Just because this is an el nino year doesn't mean we will have crappy systems. NOW YOU CAN GET THAT STRAIGHT.
But you will get crappy systems as Atlantic only very rarely produces anything other than crap. The last year with an impressive hurricane was 2010, not a single system came close to Category 5 or something that could be considered a super typhoon in the w pac. And even North Indian was more active in 2013...Atlantic produces nothing but crap lately...crap, crap, crap, and another crap...bear with it.
severe flooding in northern part of Vietnam is reported with possible disastrous consequences
Looking at first couple of vis rgb and shortwave of the morning it appears tha 94L has moved a but S and a good bit W I estimate LLCOC located near 12.0N 27.0W moving W (West by West to South by West)

And because it's located near that 27/26W area we should see that satellite transition later today we will start to find the 30min intervals

The Swirl of the North Central Florida coast has seemed to DRIFT a little to the west in the last couple of frames. Usually anything that can form west of 75 longitude has a hard time avoiding the Outer banks. The John Hope Rule
Quoting 543. NoobDave:


But you will get crappy systems as Atlantic only very rarely produces anything other than crap. The last year with an impressive hurricane was 2010, not a single system came close to Category 5 or something that could be considered a super typhoon in the w pac. And even North Indian was more active in 2013...Atlantic produces nothing but crap lately...crap, crap, crap, and another crap...bear with it.

Hurricane Gonzalo 2014- Cat 4
Good morning. Looks like the tropics have sprung to life again worldwide. Guillermo looks pretty impressive, it'll probably strengthen into a hurricane in the next few days. I'd keep an eye on it if you're in Hawaii, as it will track generally in that direction. Right now most indications are that it will pass north of and/or weaken on approach to the islands, but it's about a week away from potential impacts so things could change.



13W is also poised to be a significant typhoon, and should be monitored closely by all interests in the West Pacific, especially from Taiwan north.

Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:

Looking at first couple of vis rgb and shortwave of the morning it appears tha 94L has moved a but S and a good bit W I estimate LLCOC located near 12.0N 27.0W moving W (West by West to South by West)

And because it's located near that 27/26W area we should see that satellite transition later today we will start to find the 30min intervals




WK when that happens you are going to need some glasses :-P
Or a magnifying glass
New small burst of convection near the center.
Hmm Seems my observations are correct new 12Z data puts 94L 12.0N 26.8W

Also winds has increased pressure has dropped and system depth has changed from shallow to medium
Quoting 543. NoobDave:


But you will get crappy systems as Atlantic only very rarely produces anything other than crap. The last year with an impressive hurricane was 2010, not a single system came close to Category 5 or something that could be considered a super typhoon in the w pac. And even North Indian was more active in 2013...Atlantic produces nothing but crap lately...crap, crap, crap, and another crap...bear with it.


And what are u gonna do when a la nina comes for Pacific???? Atlantic seasons do not produce crap. Since it's morning time here, I'm gonna be nice. Gonzalo 2014 was not crap, Edouard 2014 wasn't crap, Humberto 2013 was not crap, Arthur 2014 was not crap, Sandy 2012 was not crap, in fact it killed ppl, as well as Irene. Michael 2012 was not crap. How can u even live with yourself saying something is crap, when people died, now say if that was u or someone u knew. What will u do then, huh????

Atlantic remains quiet. I agree with what the NHC is saying. Looks like 94L is starting to dry up in the SAL.

Thunderstorms are still forming over the waters.
12Z models have shifted S and W

Also intensity models have gone up now showing again TS up to weak Cat 1 Hurricane

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR (1513)
21:00 PM JST July 30 2015
=========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Soudelor (1000 hPa) located at 13.6N 159.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 13.6N 155.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 14.2N 150.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk) waters
72 HRS: 16.0N 146.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands


Quoting 553. MAweatherboy1:

Atlantic remains quiet. I agree with what the NHC is saying. Looks like 94L is starting to dry up in the SAL.




NHC did not say anything about SAL nor 94L drying up

Btw that doesn't seem to be the case here at this time it just had a bad Dmax run
New convection starting to pop
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning.  The big picture for the West-Pac/Indian Ocean from Himawari and Africa to the east:
Full Disk