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What to Expect from El Niño: North America

By: Bob Henson 3:16 PM GMT on July 28, 2015

We’re now well into the ramp-up phase of what promises to be one of the top three El Niño events of the last 60-plus years. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region--an area straddling the eastern tropical Pacific--are the most widely accepted index for the oceanic evolution of El Niño. NOAA announced in its weekly ENSO update on Monday (see PDF) that Niño3.4 SSTs were running 1.6°C degrees above the seasonal average for the week ending Monday. While this is down slightly from a peak of 1.7°C the week before, Michelle L’Heureux reminds us in NOAA’s ENSO Blog that minor weekly variations aren’t worth getting too worked up about. The latest value still keeps the current El Niño in the “strong” category (Niño3.4 SSTs at least 1.5°C above average). Unusually warm waters now extend from the South America coast westward to the International Date Line in a classic El Niño signature (see Figure 1), with widespread above-average SSTs at least partially related to El Niño extending northward across much of the northeast Pacific. For much of 2014, the atmosphere failed to respond to several brief warmings of the eastern tropical Pacific, but now both ocean and air are locked into the synchrony that builds and sustains the strongest El Niño events. Westerly winds bursts continue to kick up across the tropical Pacific, pushing warm water downward and eastward in the form of lumbering, downwelling Kelvin waves that push toward the shores of South America, where they act to suppress the normal upwelling of cooler water.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures for the week ending July 22 were more than 1°C above average from the eastern tropical Pacific northward through much of the northeast Pacific, with pockets of 2 - 4°C above average evident near the equator. Image credit: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.


Figure 2. Precipitation departures from average for the period November through March for the five events characterized as “strong” (SSTs in the Niño3.4 region of at least 1.5°C above average for at least three overlapping three-month periods). The final two events, 1982-83 and 1997-98, are characterized by Jan Null as “very strong,” with SST departures of more than 2.0°C above average. Image credit: Jan Null, Golden Gate Weather Services, from data and graphics generated by NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES-CU.



The only El Niño events in NOAA's 1950-2015 database comparable in strength to the one now developing occurred in 1982-83 and 1997-98. A single pair of cases is a thin framework on which to build any projections of what El Niño may bring across North America this winter. However, three other episodes since 1950 are rated as “strong” (Niño3.4 readings topping the SST threshold of +1.5°C for at least three overlapping three-month periods). Many of the far-flung atmospheric responses to El Niño become more reliable the stronger the event, so it’s wise to look especially closely at these cases, rather than simply averaging across all El Niño events.

Later this week, Jeff Masters will take a look at the global consequences of El Niño for weather and climate. In today’s post, we’ll focus on North America, which has some of the world’s clearest tie-ins to El Niño--not surprisingly, since we’re located just north of the oceanic heart of the phenomenon.

Drought-easing rains for California? Likely, but not certain
Some of the keenest interest in El Niño lies with Californians, who are suffering through Year 4 of an extreme drought that’s left Sierra snowpack in tatters and pushed statewide average temperatures far above anything on record over the last few months. The state needs a very wet winter just to get soil moisture back to near-normal levels, and a good deal more than that to bring California’s reservoirs and groundwater close to their long-term average. "It takes years to get into a drought of this severity, and it will likely take many more big storms, and years, to crawl out of it," said NASA’s Jay Famiglietti at an American Geophysical Union talk last December.

Like other strong El Niño events, this one will almost certainly last just one winter. But at least for the coming wet season, it holds encouraging odds of well-above average precipitation for California. During a strong El Niño, the subtropical jet stream is energized across the southern U.S., while the polar jet stream tends to stay north of its usual winter position or else consolidate with the subtropical jet. This gives warm, wet Pacific systems a better chance to push northeast into California. During 1997-98, downtown San Francisco scored its largest number of days with measurable rain (119) and its second wettest rainfall season (47.22”) since records began in 1849, coming in behind only 1861-62 (49.27”). The 1982-83 event was the fifth wettest in San Francisco annals, with a wet-season total of 38.17”. In downtown Los Angeles, the 1982-83 and 1997-98 seasons came in as fifth and sixth wettest, respectively, with 31.25” and 31.01”. Records began in L.A. in 1877.

Californians will need to be patient, as the biggest drenchings from a strong El Niño can take till the midwinter peak of the wet season to arrive (December can actually be drier than average). The 1997-98 season didn’t produce much more than sporadic storms until January in northern California and February over the state as a whole. The story was similar in 1982-83, which brought California its biggest storms after New Year's. This was before regular monitoring of El Niño, so scientists and the public didn't even know that a wet winter was in the cards. Jack Williams, who founded the USA TODAY weather section when the newspaper debuted in 1982, has said he doesn't recall writing a single article about El Niño in the winter of 1982-83. Things were different in 1997-98, when ocean monitoring systems caught the development of El Niño months ahead of its U.S. impact and word spread widely through traditional media and the burgeoning World Wide Web (and via Chris Farley in a brief but unforgettable “Saturday Night Live” skit).

With hopes for drought relief running so high in California, it can’t be stressed enough that El Niño shifts the odds but doesn’t guarantee the roll of the meteorological dice in any particular winter. On the plus side, the heavy rains that often accompany a strong El Niño don’t necessarily translate into major flooding damage. That threat hinges largely on the timing, intensity, and location of individual storm systems, which can cause problems during La Niña or El Niño alike.


Figure 3. A luxury home in the Orange County suburb of Laguna Niguel slips down a hillside eroded by heavy El Nino generated rains earlier on March 19, 1998. Two homes and seven condominiums were destroyed in the slide. Image credit: Vince Bucci/AFP/Getty Images.


Milder and drier a good bet for Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, western Canada
The altering of the polar and subtropical jet stream tracks fostered by El Niño can leave a big chunk of North America in the lurch, with relatively tranquil weather that tends to be warmer and drier than average. Unusually mild weather can overspread most of Canada---1998 was the nation’s warmest year on record, though 2014 didn’t pan out that way)---and the mildness often extends across the northern tier of US states from Washington to the Great Lakes. (The winter of 1997-98 was the second warmest in U.S. history.) It won’t necessarily be bone-dry in normally damp places like Washington or British Columbia, but anything less than average precipitation wouldn’t be good news for that region, which has seen wildfires taking advantage of a warm winter with little snowpack followed by a very dry spring. Cliff Mass (University of Washington) does cite one potential benefit to the Pacific Northwest this winter: “Big windstorms avoid strong El Niño years. Similar to vampires and garlic.”

Rockies snowfall: The south usually wins out
Thanks to the jet-shifting effects noted above, snowfall tends to be below average in the Northern Rockies and above average in the Southern Rockies during strong El Niños. The north-south split extends to Colorado, where northern resorts such as Steamboat Springs typically lose out to areas like the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo ranges across the southern part of the state. Along the populous Front Range from Denver to Fort Collins, El Niño hikes the odds of a big snowstorm, especially in the spring and autumn. About half of Boulder’s 12” – 14” storms occur during El Niño, and the odds of a 20” or greater storm are quadrupled during El Niño as opposed to La Niña. See this UCAR writeup for more detail.

Rainy and cool across the Gulf Coast
According to NOAA, the single most reliable El Niño outcome in the United States, occurring in more than 80% of El Niño events over the last century, is the tendency for wet wintertime conditions along and near the Gulf Coast, thanks to the juiced-up subtropical jet stream. (The same upper-level jet also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by fostering subsidence and stable air and boosting the upper-level wind shear that inhibits tropical cyclone formation). Severe weather is often associated with El Niño during the winter months across the southeast fringes of the nation, a finding reinforced in a 2015 study led by John Allen (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) that we discussed in a March post. The study found that the risk of tornadoes across south Texas and Florida is roughly doubled during El Niño. Florida's worst outbreak on record occurred on February 22-23, 1998, during the intense 1997-98 El Niño. A total of 12 tornadoes killed 42 people, mainly in a swath running along Interstate 4 through central Florida.


Figure 4. A resident of a Kissimmee, Florida, residential complex picks up some of her belongings from what is left of her home after a tornado leveled her house and ripped through the neighborhood on February 23, 1998. Image credit: Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images.


A dry pocket in the Midwest
One fairly localized but distinct product of El Niño is a tendency for drier-than-usual winters across the lower Midwest, especially in the Ohio Valley. A typical winter brings a stream of low-pressure centers approaching the lower Midwest from either the southwest or northwest. The split stream favored by El Niño tends to push these lows either well north or well south of the Ohio Valley, leaving the area with better-than-usual odds of relatively mild temperatures and light precipitation during the core of winter.

What about the Northeast US?
Some of the bigger snowstorms on record for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast have accompanied El Niño events, but the influence of El Niño is highly conditional on other factors. The blockbuster El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 pushed temperatures across the entire Midwest and Northeast well above average, yet the ”Megapolitan” snowstorm of February 10-12, 1983, pummeled big cities along the East Coast with widespread 1-to-2-foot amounts. The most destructive winter weather event of 1997-98 was actually a multiday ice storm that paralyzed Montreal and parts of far northern New York and New England for days. And the infamous Snowmageddon of 2009-10 (see Figure 5) occurred during a moderate El Niño. One crucial element is the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a semi-cyclic atmospheric pattern that describes whether the flow from eastern North America to Europe is a strong, west-to-east channel (a positive NAO) or a more wavy, variable path (a negative NAO). Heavy snow during El Niño becomes much more likely along the eastern seaboard when a negative NAO predominates. Winter hasn’t been especially kind to the northeast U.S. and eastern Canada over the last few years, with frequent negative NAO periods leading to major winter storms and intense cold buffeting the region more than one might expect in a warming climate. In a follow-up post to this one, we took a closer look at the imminent face-off between a powerhouse El Niño and the recurrent tendency over the last few years toward cold and snow in parts of the Northeast.


Figure 5. Walkers struggle through the snow in front of the U.S. Capitol Building on February 6, 2010, in Washington, DC. The blizzard that came to be known as Snowmageddon dumped 20” to 35” of accumulations from the Washington area into southern New Jersey, paralyzing the region and snapping power lines. Image credit: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images.


Villain or welcome guest?
When all is said and done, a strong El Niño can actually be a net benefit to the US economy. A detailed analysis by climatologist Stanley Changnon, published in 2004 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, estimated that U.S. weather associated with the big 1997-98 El Niño event led to direct losses of about $4 billion but direct gains of around $19 billion. Moreover, Changnon reckoned that hundreds more lives were saved by the lack of intense winter cold than were taken by El Niño-related storminess. Seth Borenstein and Frank Bajak make a good case in an AP story that the United States is one of the largest beneficaries of El Niño relative to other parts of the globe.

Based on NOAA data and analyses, Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services) has created an handy graphical guide to U.S. temperature and precipitation effects from weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño and La Niña events, including composites as well as individual Nov-Mar seasons. Looking these over will give you a good sense of where El Niño’s fingerprints are crystal clear or on the muddy side. You’ll also find helpful writeups on NOAA’s ENSO Blog outlining typical U.S. El Niño impacts, including entries by Mike Halpert (June 2014) and Tom Di Liberto (June 2015).

Bob Henson

El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Are we sure about this supposed El Nino?

: )

The data could be Manipulated,...

Thanks Dr. Henson! I love the snow talk we are getting into!
Thank You Mr. Henson. Outstanding analysis. Good news for Cali in the Fall term and the jury is out on how much snowpack they will get in Winter. Will be interesting to see for the NE how the Nor'Easters interact with the pooling Gulf Stream/warmer off shore temps that we saw this last winter help pummel Boston and parts with record snow. Could be another brutal winter storm season for the NE this year.
Figure 2. Temperature departures from average for the period November through March for the five events characterized as “strong” (SSTs in the Niño3.4 region of at least 1.5°C above average for at least three overlapping three-month periods).

Should this be Precipitation departures as the figures show?
A colder, rainier winter in SW Florida is not welcome. Mild, sunny weather is what makes it worth putting up with all the snowbirds.
to the left is how much rain california would need to end their drought in the next 6 months....on the right is the chances of it happening..........




(picutes not working for some reason).....here's the linkLink



I live in Wisconsin and if I a not mistaken, we will have a warmer winter than usual. This is welcome as recent past winters have been quite cold.
Quoting 4. Drakoen:

Figure 2. Temperature departures from average for the period November through March for the five events characterized as “strong” (SSTs in the Niño3.4 region of at least 1.5°C above average for at least three overlapping three-month periods).

Should this be Precipitation departures as the figures show?


Indeed! Fixed now. Thanks for the catch.

--Bob
Quoting 6. flbeachgirl:

A colder, rainier winter in SW Florida is not welcome. Mild, sunny weather is what makes it worth putting up with all the snowbirds.


Mild, sunny weather is what brings them here...

We'll be just fine no matter the case.
: )

Quoting 11. Patrap:

: )


Nature giving us an interesting show. Wonder what nature will do next.
Quoting 12. HurricaneAndre:

Nature giving us an interesting show. Wonder what nature will do next.


If it had a brain, it should be told to go west and rain in TX
Quoting 13. RitaEvac:



If it had a brain, it should be told to go west and rain in TX


Hoping for Friday. Haven't had a drop since July 3rd. We finally hit 100 yesterday for the first time this year here in Round Rock.
I have this feeling we'e not going to see that much snow in D.C this winter.D.C having two back to back snowy winters was already rare.We've had record breaking cold in both of the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.Not to mention two snowstorms for the month of March this year and in 2014 we saw lots of snow events (in Mach) even without El nino.El nino tends to give us more rain than snow with some years of us getting lucky but most el nino years? no.
Canadian model for this weekend........................................... ...................
Quoting 14. tornadodude:



Hoping for Friday. Haven't had a drop since July 3rd. We finally hit 100 yesterday for the first time this year here in Round Rock.


It's ridiculous here, lawns are browning out, quarter to half inch gaps along the slabs of the house, after one of the 2nd wettest periods in June. CLIMATE CHANGE! then it'll rain allllllllll this fall and winter because of El Nino
Quoting 11. Patrap:

: )




Thought this system was supposed to cross central fl today with a wide band of heavy rains?
According to surface charts, the Gulf low should be over Northern FL in 6 hours time. I can't even see it....
Quoting 17. RitaEvac:



It's ridiculous here, lawns are browning out, quarter to half inch gaps along the slabs of the house, after one of the 2nd wettest periods in June. CLIMATE CHANGE! then it'll rain allllllllll this fall and winter because of El Nino


Can't seem to get any consistency. The lakes and rivers are full around here, which has been nice. This fall should be pretty active, although I will likely have relocated back to East Tennessee by then.
Quoting 18. Bucsboltsfan:



Thought this system was supposed to cross central fl today with a wide band of heavy rains?


The tropics dont always follow the written script.

With the Big High positioned over NOLA, as it slides Nw..the Low is likely to migrate that way as well.

Current thinking...that is.

That shear is keeping it in check as to development.




sure looks like the Low is weakening a lot now............................................... ....
Quoting 14. tornadodude:



Hoping for Friday. Haven't had a drop since July 3rd. We finally hit 100 yesterday for the first time this year here in Round Rock.


We've seen several days this month of temps of 100
I dont think that I have had any rain this month. Will have to check in to that
It's been extremely hot and uncomfortable, rain would be a nice change of pace
Plus, the ground is cracking and pulling away from sidewalks and such
LOVE the latest entry, Mr. Henson. Perfect lunch-time read. Thanks.

I would absolutely die for subsequent blogs: "What to Expect from El Nino: Asia" and the like...

Just a friendly suggestion... ;)
00z GFS showed this, Cape Verde Season is going to start get going in a few weeks.
Quoting 23. txjac:



We've seen several days this month of temps of 100
I dont think that I have had any rain this month. Will have to check in to that
It's been extremely hot and uncomfortable, rain would be a nice change of pace
Plus, the ground is cracking and pulling away from sidewalks and such



Where are you?
12z UKMET

SE Coast
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 24 : 29.9N 78.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.07.2015 29.9N 78.8W WEAK

00UTC 30.07.2015 29.8N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.07.2015 30.3N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.07.2015 30.8N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.07.2015 31.8N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.08.2015 32.2N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.08.2015 33.0N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.08.2015 34.5N 75.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.08.2015 38.3N 71.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 03.08.2015 42.0N 64.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.08.2015 45.3N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

GOM

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 102 : 27.0N 86.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.08.2015 26.5N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.08.2015 27.7N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.08.2015 27.7N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2015 29.0N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
Quoting 15. washingtonian115:

I have this feeling we'e not going to see that much snow in D.C this winter.D.C having two back to back snowy winters was already rare.We've had record breaking cold in both of the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.Not to mention two snowstorms for the month of March this year and in 2014 we saw lots of snow events (in Mach) even without El nino.El nino tends to give us more rain than snow with some years of us getting lucky but most el nino years? no.
Yea, we have been lucky with the jamming snow, but if the El-Nino is strong it is going to be favoring rainy and mild. It is too early to know, but either cold and snowy or rainy and mild, I will not be surprised.
Current pattern across a large part of the UK is more like late October/early November, not late July! Really unusual set up here. It looks like some July low records could be broken Wednesday night with temperatures down into single figures and possibly even down to freezing in some parts of Scotland. Thankfully winds coming from the south this weekend should cause warming across the UK. Then there's a potentially nasty looking storm which'll hit the UK/Republic of Ireland by late this week/early next week:









Models aren't in great agreement about it yet, but it should bring some wet and windy weather.
12z GFS with the wave.
It sure seems global weather patterns are going bonkers. It seems almost unprecedented.
It's 91 degrees in Port St. Lucie and doesn't feel humid as the sun has burnt much of it off.

It doesn't feel like we're approaching August.
Quoting 28. ncstorm:

12z UKMET

SE Coast
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 24 : 29.9N 78.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 29.07.2015 29.9N 78.8W WEAK

00UTC 30.07.2015 29.8N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.07.2015 30.3N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.07.2015 30.8N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.07.2015 31.8N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.08.2015 32.2N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.08.2015 33.0N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.08.2015 34.5N 75.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.08.2015 38.3N 71.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 03.08.2015 42.0N 64.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.08.2015 45.3N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


That's the 4th run in a row that the UKMET has shown a tropical storm developing along the east coast of the US. Starting to show some consistency. Other models show lows forming in the area where the UKMET predicts TC genesis, so something to watch this weekend. Either way looks like a lot of rain.
Cape Verde Season really beings traditionally around August 15th.
climate change has brought a whole new perspective to weather. El nino and how it will effect the east coast seems like it will be a learning experience for everyone.

Question what is up with the weather in the UK?
the weather in Bethlehem Pa has been like a very humid day in August since the end of June. the month of July has been terribly oppressive, even if the temps are in the low eighties it feels awful because of the high humidity. We had only 4 enjoyable days. What does August have in store? I much prefer winter, snow and all!
Quoting 27. tornadodude:



Where are you?


West side of Houston
West side of Houston


all the rest of the state is west of houston.....LOL
All the rain fell apart before making it ashore in Pinellas
Quoting 15. washingtonian115:

I have this feeling we'e not going to see that much snow in D.C this winter.D.C having two back to back snowy winters was already rare.We've had record breaking cold in both of the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.Not to mention two snowstorms for the month of March this year and in 2014 we saw lots of snow events (in Mach) even without El nino.El nino tends to give us more rain than snow with some years of us getting lucky but most el nino years? no.


Weak to moderate El Nino is favorable for mid atlantic snow. Strong.. nope.


The fly in the ointment this year though is strong positive PDO which is favorable for cold in the east.

So I don't know how it will all go down.

A watched pot never boils.
Quoting 20. tornadodude:



Can't seem to get any consistency. The lakes and rivers are full around here, which has been nice. This fall should be pretty active, although I will likely have relocated back to East Tennessee by then.
Yep,  NWS Houston tweeted this graph out last night

(edit: apparently the direct link to the image doesn't work, try this)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CK9qkpCUEAALioR.png


It's been crazy here ,  I had to break out the sprinkler this weekend only to find out it was broken,  hadn't needed to use it since last September....
12z UKMET precip maps only go out 72 hours on this site




then Classic view in the next frames


With regards to the UKMET model, you can see something spinning up right off the SE Coast now, shows up very well on the visible satellite picture. This shall be interesting...
Don't be fooled by the radar as these are blinding rains. It is absolutely horrible over by Rock Springs right now with rain so hard you can't see across the street! Also over in Lake County to my west reports of 3" to 4" of rain in an hour.

Quoting 40. georgevandenberghe:



Weak to moderate El Nino is favorable for mid atlantic snow. Strong.. nope.


The fly in the ointment this year though is strong positive PDO which is favorable for cold in the east.

So I don't know how it will all go down.


The winter of 97-98 brought nothing but rain for us here in D.C.It was our least snowiest winter tied with 1972-1973 with a dismal 0.1 inches...
Flooding already occurring from heavy rains all month in low lying areas off Welch RD and 3" to 4" today are going to make things even that much worse as over 20" of rain have fallen since June 1st across extreme western Seminole County & across parts of NW Orange County.

Quoting 48. hydrus:




Pattern is locked in over FL. No end in sight for those that have been experiencing heavy rains lately.

Thank you Mr Henson,
I have just read more info in this blog in 10 minutes about El Nino than I have read in the last 20 years.
Now being packed with knowledge, I must ask as an open question, based on stories and evidence of prolonged droughts in California and the west coast what happened to the El Nino's then.
Were they present and not affecting the west coast rainfall, or were they not present?
It seems to me that if El Nino's bring rain to the west coast they must have been have rest periods during historical droughts previously mentioned on WU blogs?

I am sure this blog is using the norms for projection purposes but it still seems odd that if El Nino's occur every few years, they can sometimes not affect the west coast weather during their events.
The blog projections are based on historical records, we will see if they play out this time around.
Seems like a busted forecast once again here in ECFL. That low is weakening.
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Don't be fooled by the radar as these are blinding rains. It is absolutely horrible over by Rock Springs right now with rain so hard you can't see across the street! Also over in Lake County to my west reports of 3" to 4" of rain in an hour.


Quoting 54. hurricanewatcher61:

Seems like a busted forecast once again here in ECFL. That low is weakening.


I don't know where you live but there is going to be lots and lots of rain across the Orlando Metro this afternoon. This low is across Lake County and its slowly moving ENE. Drove out of it just a bit ago near SR 46 Orange/Lake County line. You really can't see the rain is just that hard and its slowly spreading east.
Quoting 55. StormTrackerScott:



I don't know where you live but there is going to be lots and lots of rain across the Orlando Metro this afternoon. This low is across Lake County and its slowly moving ENE. Drove out of it just a bit ago near SR 46 Orange/Lake County line. You really can't see the rain is just that hard and its slowly spreading east.


8.31" for me in NW Tampa since Friday. And that is one of the lower 5 day totals across our area!
Climate Change Causing Ocean Acidification, Low Oxygen -

July 28, 2015

SACRAMENTO, Calif. – Climate change is turning ocean water more acidic and creating low-oxygen "dead zones" – issues that have serious implications for the entire oceanic ecosystem.

That's the subject of a Wednesday workshop in Sacramento on the findings of the West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel. According to Jenn Phillips, project manager with the Ocean Protection Council – an arm of the state government that advises policymakers on marine science issues – the problem affects the entire west coast.


The Wednesday workshop is free and open to the public, and will be streamed live on the web. It begins at 10 a.m. at the California Environmental Protection Agency office in Sacramento. -
See more at:
I am sure this blog is using the norms for projection purposes but it still seems odd that if El Nino's occur every few years, they can sometimes not affect the west coast weather during their events.
The blog projections are based on historical records, we will see if they play out this time around.


while el nino increases precip chances for california......the long range forecast from the CPC...does not look promising

dec-jan


feb-april






i see a low here watch out!


watching this low off the southeast coast
Quoting 22. LargoFl:

sure looks like the Low is weakening a lot now............................................... ....
Maybe all the rain predictions will be wrong. I hope so
Looks like the east coast missed again? We had some good rain Fri-Monday in Naples, but no standing water or flooding in my neck of the woods. Good soaking, the sand absorbed well here at home.

   Only Time will Tell, Thanks for the update Mr Henson
Coming down in buckets here in Longwood.
That explains it.. All the good heavy stuff in Ft Myers / Cape Coral

It's breezy with white fluffy clouds and for the second day in a row- no rain.
1.37" so far today.
Quoting 40. georgevandenberghe:



Weak to moderate El Nino is favorable for mid atlantic snow. Strong.. nope.


The fly in the ointment this year though is strong positive PDO which is favorable for cold in the east.

So I don't know how it will all go down.




It's up in the air as to what will happen this winter. 1997 had a much stronger monthly PDO value at this time: 2.76 than we do at 1.54 which is comparable to the PDO value in 1957 1.76. In 1997 the NAO was mostly positive in JFM, while in 1958 JFM the NAO was strongly negative.
So far D.C has had (counting today) 28 days of temps that are 90+ degrees.Looking at the forecast we will continue to see 90 degree heat with mid to upper 90's possible and temps have over performed today.It is currently feeling like 102 outside.Water water and lot's of water will be needed for anyone outside for long periods of time this week and the elderly.
The current big picture for the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard; the sheared trof with the two embedded lows with little chance of tropical development IMHO:


Longwood KFLLONGW14
Current Conditions Station reported -1 second ago
80.2 F
Feels Like 86.4 F
0.0
mph
Wind from E
Gusts 2.0 mph
Dew Point:
78 F
Humidity:
91%
Precip Rate:
0.39 in/hr
Precip Accum:
0.53 in
Pressure:
29.95 in
Quoting 69. FrostyNaples:

That explains it.. All the good heavy stuff in Ft Myers / Cape Coral




Yeah, Southwest Regional Airport on the south side of Fort Myers had over 8" (Friday - Sunday). And that wasn't even the area with the heaviest rainfall. Just south and east of there picked up between 10-15" over the time period.

At the house here just S.E. of Fort Myers I picked up close to 6" from Friday - Monday. So far today nothing but sunshine.
78. JRRP
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:

So far D.C has had (counting today) 28 days of temps that are 90+ degrees.Looking at the forecast we will continue to see 90 degree heat with mid to upper 90's possible and temps have over performed today.It is currently feeling like 102 outside.Water water and lot's of water will be needed for anyone outside for long periods of time this week and the elderly.
Good to stay good and hydrated during hot times!
Indications that cooler temps are coming in early August.
Quoting 73. Drakoen:



It's up in the air as to what will happen this winter. 1997 had a much stronger monthly PDO value at this time: 2.76 than we do at 1.54 which is comparable to the PDO value in 1957 1.76. In 1997 the NAO was mostly positive in JFM, while in 1958 JFM the NAO was strongly negative.


ESPI and the AEI are much higher than 1997 though meaning this El-Nino will likely be stronger than 1997. 3.9 AEI index is unheard of!

ESPI reached 3.4 yesterday back down to 3.29 now.
83. bwi
Visualizer uses GFS data to show westerly windflow in the western equatorial Pacific
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-190.73,-2.36,280

There's also a really cool looking long-fetch winter northerly (warm) stream east of New Zealand that goes straight to Antarctica
Quoting 81. Climate175:

Indications that cooler temps are coming in early August.


I suspect with El-Nino getting so strong that an early Fall is in the cards for the Eastern US. Also indications going forward of a strongly negative SOI.
 
      Some Thunderstorm Chances in here, It's Monsoon Time in Cali.... YIKES and HOT too...
Quoting 62. intampa:

Maybe all the rain predictions will be wrong. I hope so
yes we sure need a drying out period for sure.
Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:

Flooding already occurring from heavy rains all month in low lying areas off Welch RD and 3" to 4" today are going to make things even that much worse as over 20" of rain have fallen since June 1st across extreme western Seminole County & across parts of NW Orange County.



20"? Do you have some kind of rain dancehall near you?
12Z Euro again showing 10" to 15" of rain from just north of Tampa to Orlando thru next Tuesday.

Quoting 25. LongIslandBeaches:

LOVE the latest entry, Mr. Henson. Perfect lunch-time read. Thanks.

I would absolutely die for subsequent blogs: "What to Expect from El Nino: Asia" and the like...

Just a friendly suggestion... ;)


You're in luck, I am working on that post...should be up late this week, barring unexpected weather events.

Jeff Masters
check out the spin down by the islands........................................... ...............
Quoting 87. RatRAP:


20"? Do you have some kind of rain dancehall near you?



Since June 1st yes.
I think that's an ULL.

Quoting 90. LargoFl:

check out the spin down by the islands........................................... ...............
OCT-DEC temp anomaly forecast.........


Quoting 12. HurricaneAndre:



Nature giving us an interesting show. Wonder what nature will do next.
Baby blob growing over the NW Yucatan...
96. JRRP
12z Euro


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL HOWEVER LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
IT IS THEN FORECAST TO ERODE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
EXPECTED OVERALL PATTERN WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS... WITH POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WEST PR WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD
TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SPREAD THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE BRING HOT AND OVERAL DRY AND
HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST PATRTCULATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE OVERHEAD
WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND POOLING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...ALL SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS AS THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...LESSER ACTIVITY AND DECREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
EXPECTED...AS TUTT SHIFTS FARTHER WEST AND WEAKENS...AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&
Good rains overnight but a much quieter day today.

Btw - the ignore button is useless.
Quoting 79. Climate175:

Good to stay good and hydrated during hot times!


My mother was in DC making maps for the troops during WW2 and she used to say it was ungodly hot there in the summers. I have no empirical evidence, but wonder were there other long hot summers in DC?
It amazes me that comment #70 is allowed to stay, a mod posted after it and its rewarded with plusses..

Speaks to the volume of our beloved WU community..

I just hate to see sh*t like that for certain bloggers..this is why I don't post like how I use to..If I had posted that comment it would have been flagged out immediately or removed by the mods





One of the Deadly tornadoes that moved by my area when I was @ Seminole High School was rated F3 over by Lake Jesup right off the 427 & 417 intersection right behind the Sanford Flee Market. I remember whole brick houses ripped down to the foundation.


Quoting 101. ncstorm:

It amazes me that comment #70 is allowed to stay, a mod posted after it and its rewarded with plusses..

Speaks to the volume of our beloved WU community..

I just hate to see sh*t like that for certain bloggers..this is why I don't post like how I use to..If I had posted that comment it would have been flagged out immediately.








I agree. If i said that about someone my but would be banned for good.
Doom and gloom Florida rain...
Doom and Gloom El nino..
Wash rinse and repeat....

Anyway We need something to track badly in the Atlantic...Something like a Bill (2009)or Ganzalo from last year..Hell even something like Earl(2010) to give us some excitement...
Here is a video surveillance that captured the Kissimmee tornado.

Link
Quoting 96. JRRP:

12z Euro



It's this tornado that was captured on camera by where I grew up. Lightning flash showed the Tornado moving by.

Can anyone provide a link to the best place to run models (GFS, Euro, etc.) for the tropical systems/Atlantic? I used to have one from you guys, but can't find the link anymore.
Here is a look at that Gulf system that produced those Killer Tornadoes. I suspect we will see a lot of this come late January into February next year across FL.

Quoting 109. VampyreGTX:

Can anyone provide a link to the best place to run models (GFS, Euro, etc.) for the tropical systems/Atlantic? I used to have one from you guys, but can't find the link anymore.
Here you go.
Link
Look at the model section.
Quoting 108. Climate175:

It looks like that cat is dancing by breathing LOL!
I think that cat is having a seizure rather than heavy breathing.lol.
113. tonyc
I may have missed it in the article, but what possible effect can it have on the Sierra snow pack and snow levels in Calif.? The rains would be nice of course, but without a snow pack it will not be good. As I understated it it's possible the southern Sierra Nevada range "may" see more snow than the northern Sierra? While it is still a ways off we can hope.
Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

I think that cat is having a seizure rather than heavy breathing.lol.
Better get it to the Vet, because it's been doing that for months now when Gearts shows it, XD.
Search tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 109. VampyreGTX:

Can anyone provide a link to the best place to run models (GFS, Euro, etc.) for the tropical systems/Atlantic? I used to have one from you guys, but can't find the link anymore.
snowed in S.W Montana near yellowstone last night. friends woke up to a good few inches and it was cold early this morning 29f. bet they are cold.
It amazes me that comment #70 is allowed to stay, a mod posted after it and its rewarded with plusses..

Speaks to the volume of our beloved WU community..

I just hate to see sh*t like that for certain bloggers..this is why I don't post like how I use to..If I had posted that comment it would have been flagged out immediately or removed by the mods



i can't speak for irguy....however it would appear humorous....as in sarcasm......irguy lives in s.e florida...and has received very little rain...i know..the joke isn't as funny when it has to be explained...but i think most caught it

Amazing Photo of Shark Fin clouds from the Galapagos.

I may have missed it in the article, but what possible effect can it have on the Sierra snow pack and snow levels in Calif.? The rains would be nice of course, but without a snow pack it will not be good. As I understated it it's possible the southern Sierra Nevada range "may" see more snow than the northern Sierra? While it is still a ways off we can hope.

give you an idea bighorn plateau average a snowpack of 60 inches....during all el nino's it averages 70 inches...and averaging all strong el nino's it's 90 inches.....however...during the strong event of 92 it only averaged 37 inches.....

unfortunately right now the CPC is only forecasting an average year.....hopefully that will change for the better
its persisting in the n.e gulf waiting for a trough split
Quoting 103. StormTrackerScott:



I agree. If i said that about someone my but would be banned for good.


I honestly don't know why you still post here..and they wonder why kids are killing themselves over cyber bullying..why there is so much hatred for people because of skin color, sexual orientation, or personal beliefs..why social media is a sess pool for people to hide behind fake profiles and provide an onslaught of ignorance..

Until we start fixing people's hearts all other problems in this world will go unfixed..I fear there is no turning back unfortunately..

Later..

Quoting 68. StormTrackerScott:

Coming down in buckets here in Longwood.


Scott you should have seen the rainfall rate here this morning around 4 AM, it was incredible, I got 2.47 in my gauge in a half hour, it took the cake in terms of the amount of rain in a short time that we've seen during this pattern. The fact that we had saturated ground going into it was the perfect match for flooding. The flooding by far was the worst since tropical storm Debby, and produced flooding very similar to tropical storm Debby. I don't know the exact amount of rain we had today in total since I haven't taken the full measurement yet, but it's over 2.5.
Soapbox time… ;)

Soapbox time… ;)



just make sure it's OSHA approved
Is it just me or is the Low off the SE coast looking more organized today? Weren't some of the earlier models predicting this one to take off?
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:

 
      Some Thunderstorm Chances in here, It's Monsoon Time in Cali.... YIKES and HOT too...


I wish we could get down blow 100F for a while, I suppose its not too bad tomorrow at about 102/F, meanwhile cooling a bit towards the weekend before warming again next week.
Based on Seville temps, nearest to me of significance.

Here's a piece of information which the head of the Spanish weather service on TV,1 told us tonight.
The temps today at about 20,000 feet over parts of Spain were -1/C, note this is 20K feet high. They were registered at about 40 degrees north of the equator.
What has got them all in a spin at the weather centre is that these kinds of temps at 20K feet are normally only registered in the tropics not approaching 20 degrees north of the tropics! Tey have never been recorded at this time of year before here.
Its out of my league of course but the specialists I these kinds of things like Jedkins and Levi might have a bit to say on this?

Meanwhile concerning the comment over comment 70.
I think within reason residents of any area in question can say or write what they think. After all that's what freedom of speech and constitutions are about.
The world is full of major problems both weather and political, no point in dithering over a bit of trivia.
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

Doom and gloom Florida rain...
Doom and Gloom El nino..
Wash rinse and repeat....

Anyway We need something to track badly in the Atlantic...Something like a Bill (2009)or Ganzalo from last year..Hell even something like Earl(2010) to give us some excitement...


Yeah…the Euro has been showing 15”+ inches of rain for Tampa in seemingly every run since the middle of July. While the rainfall has been extremely high and I don’t mean to downplay it, we’d be close to our annual rainfall in about 3 weeks if the Euro had been right. I don’t take issue with people posting model runs, but the hype on this site has been excessive as of late, even from posters I have a lot of respect for.
I hate everything about this pattern FL is in right now. Grey skies all day and night. I miss my scorching summer heat followed by massive thunderstorms with high dbz rates in evening, leading into clear and beautiful night skies by 10pm or so.
Quoting 122. Jedkins01:



Scott you should have seen the rainfall rate here this morning around 4 AM, it was incredible, I got 2.47 in my gauge in a half hour, it took the cake in terms of the amount of rain in a short time that we've seen during this pattern. The fact that we had saturated ground going into it was the perfect match for flooding. The flooding by far was the worst since tropical storm Debby, and produced flooding very similar to tropical storm Debby. I don't know the exact amount of rain we had today in total since I haven't taken the full measurement yet, but it's over 2.5.


Here to radar looked un impressive with just what looked like moderate rain on radar but that was not the case it was a down right torrent outside. 1" to 2" for many locations around here and I think finally Orlando International topped 1 inch too for the first time in July giving them nearly 6" so far for the month other side of I-4 though totals are doubled for July.

Quoting 53. PlazaRed:

...  I must ask as an open question, based on stories and evidence of prolonged droughts in California and the west coast what happened to the El Nino's then.
Were they present and not affecting the west coast rainfall, or were they not present?
It seems to me that if El Nino's bring rain to the west coast they must have been have rest periods during historical droughts previously mentioned on WU blogs?

I am sure this blog is using the norms for projection purposes but it still seems odd that if El Nino's occur every few years, they can sometimes not affect the west coast weather during their events.
The blog projections are based on historical records, we will see if they play out this time around.
Plaza Red,

You might find this NWS San Diego El Nino discussion to be informative. I believe this video answers your questions. Generally speaking, there is not a strong correlation between El Nino/La Nina cycles and winter precipitation in CA.


Quoting 129. CybrTeddy:

This summer sucks. I hate everything about this pattern FL is in right now. Grey skies all day and night. I miss my scorching summer heat followed by massive thunderstorms with high dbz rates in evening, leading into clear and beautiful night skies by 10pm or so.


Well you won't like the forecast thru next Tuesday. Euro and GFS really put C FL in the cross hairs of a high rain event again!
Quoting 129. CybrTeddy:

I hate everything about this pattern FL is in right now. Grey skies all day and night. I miss my scorching summer heat followed by massive thunderstorms with high dbz rates in evening, leading into clear and beautiful night skies by 10pm or so.


Tell me about it....Other than for about 6 hours on Sunday, I haven't seen the sun since Friday. Would be nice to go back to a typical summer pattern.
Quoting 129. CybrTeddy:

This summer sucks. I hate everything about this pattern FL is in right now. Grey skies all day and night. I miss my scorching summer heat followed by massive thunderstorms with high dbz rates in evening, leading into clear and beautiful night skies by 10pm or so.


We got lucky (if you like the sun and heat) here in Fort Myers with a hot and sunny day today.
Quoting 118. Climate175:

Amazing Photo of Shark Fin clouds from the Galapagos.
wow what a great pic there ty
Quoting 108. Climate175:

It looks like that cat is dancing by breathing LOL!
Good thing I took my epilepsy medication today?!
Quoting 133. tampabaymatt:



Tell me about it....Other than for about 6 hours on Sunday, I haven't seen the sun since Friday. Would be nice to go back to a typical summer pattern.


You guys need to head further down the west coast, nice and sunny down here!
Environment Canada is out surveying the damage from the large tornado near Tilston, Canada last night. A preliminary statement from this morning stated the tornado was on the ground for 2-3 hours!

EDIT: Replaced original video with an extended version.


Quoting 127. PlazaRed:


I wish we could get down blow 100F for a while, I suppose its not too bad tomorrow at about 102/F, meanwhile cooling a bit towards the weekend before warming again next week.
Based on Seville temps, nearest to me of significance.

Snipped


   I figured that might cool you off a bit. Yes, your temps are off the chart, wouldn't want those, unless the vacation in Spain comes with it.
Quoting 134. Sfloridacat5:



We got lucky (if you like the sun and heat) here in Fort Myers with a hot and sunny day today.


We had plenty of that already this summer. I am loving this weather. Granted, I do like it when we have our normal thunderstorm pattern, but since that isn't going to happen, I'll take the gentle overcast conditions over the scorching sun. I'm not at the beach. 0.1" of rain today and counting.



I SEE THE LOW ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST NOW THE WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH

Quoting 131. rayduray2013:


Plaza Red,

You might find this NWS San Diego El Nino discussion to be informative. I believe this video answers your questions. Generally speaking, there is not a strong correlation between El Nino/La Nina cycles and winter precipitation in CA.





Great presentation by Alex Tardy at NWS/San Diego! As he points out, strong El Niños are much more reliable rain producers for California than weak or moderate events. As for PlazaRed's original question (comment 53), it's a good topic for a future blog. The intersection of El Niño and La Niña with California's long-term climate history (including megadroughts of the distant past) is a fascinating research question. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation also plays a major role over longer time periods.

Bob

Bob
Quoting 52. StormTrackerScott:



Pattern is locked in over FL. No end in sight for those that have been experiencing heavy rains lately.




Scott if these model trends continue, it's getting a bit concerning, while minor flooding happens here often from heavy rain events, being close to the coast always allows for easy draining, but if we keep getting 5-10 inches a week on the west coast of Florida like this, it doesn't matter how close to the coast we are, something will have to give. BTW, some parts of the Tampa Bay area have had serious flooding including norther Pinellas, west Pasco, and NW Hillsborough, which have seen numerous areas with homes and businesses swamped in flooding.

I'll be checking back in later tonight with my final rain total for today, but so far since Friday, NOT including today's total over 2 inches, is 7.04, after today we would be over 9 and a half inches in 5 days and over 16 inches for July, talk about water logged!
Quoting 113. tonyc:

I may have missed it in the article, but what possible effect can it have on the Sierra snow pack and snow levels in Calif.? The rains would be nice of course, but without a snow pack it will not be good. As I understated it it's possible the southern Sierra Nevada range "may" see more snow than the northern Sierra? While it is still a ways off we can hope.



Nino tends to keep the polar jet stuck up in Canada, the warmer Pacific Jet can set up a very wet monsoonal pattern which can work itself up into SoCal on occasion but not always, and won't get into the Sierras and even if it did the snow level would be really high since the moisture is originating over those warm waters..

herezalink: Link
Dr. Henson,

Do you have any comments or further analysis on what a strong El Niño does to Alaska? Most of the reading I find tends to indicate the results are very diverse. It can be warmer, colder, more snow, or less snow that normal.

Thanks.
Those were the days ....

from today's NWS Key West discussion, take care

.CLIMATE...JULY 28TH...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1916...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 79F WAS RECORDED.
THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
JULY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Quoting 143. Jedkins01:



Scott if these model trends continue, it's getting a bit concerning, while minor flooding happens here often from heavy rain events, being close to the coast always allows for easy draining, but if we keep getting 5-10 inches a week on the west coast of Florida like this, it doesn't matter how close to the coast we are, something will have to give. BTW, some parts of the Tampa Bay area have had serious flooding including norther Pinellas, west Pasco, and NW Hillsborough, which have seen numerous areas with homes and businesses swamped in flooding.

I'll be checking back in later tonight with my final rain total for today, but so far since Friday, NOT including today's total over 2 inches, is 7.04, after today we would be over 9 and a half inches in 5 days and over 16 inches for July, talk about water logged!


The good news is that I see our rain forecast for Friday and Saturday has beed lowered on WU from 90% to 60%. Baynew9 who is always very aggressive in their forcasting has us at 70% and 60% which is lowered too. Rains will continue but hopefully not at the rate ee have been experiencing.
I continue to think that we need to be careful when looking at a sample size of just two strong El Nino's. The 1997-98 event had much cooler water in the Eastern Pacific compared to now. This very warm water off the U.S. West Coast is likely to play a significant role in this event.
Super entry, Bob, and it is much appreciated ...

Quoting 119. ricderr:


I may have missed it in the article, but what possible effect can it have on the Sierra snow pack and snow levels in Calif.? The rains would be nice of course, but without a snow pack it will not be good. As I understated it it's possible the southern Sierra Nevada range "may" see more snow than the northern Sierra? While it is still a ways off we can hope.

give you an idea bighorn plateau average a snowpack of 60 inches....during all el nino's it averages 70 inches...and averaging all strong el nino's it's 90 inches.....however...during the strong event of 92 it only averaged 37 inches.....

unfortunately right now the CPC is only forecasting an average year.....hopefully that will change for the better


The stronger the El Niño, the better the chances it will bring a healthy wet season as far north as the California Sierra. Of course, the winter snowpack will also depend on temperature; it was unprecedented warmth that truly wiped out the Sierra's 2014-15 snowpack. An LA Times article from the other day has some good perspective on these questions:

It's critical El Niño hits northern California
Quoting 130. StormTrackerScott:



Here to radar looked un impressive with just what looked like moderate rain on radar but that was not the case it was a down right torrent outside. 1" to 2" for many locations around here and I think finally Orlando International topped 1 inch too for the first time in July giving them nearly 6" so far for the month other side of I-4 though totals are doubled for July.


Yeah I had the same surprise here as well, it was unreal in terms of the rainfall rate, about 4-5 inches per hour based on how much I got in my gauge with the 2.47 in about 30 minutes, yet it didn't look impressive on radar at all, I was shocked by how much so. The cell was only about 50-55 DBZ at max but the rainfall intensity was unreal for what looked like an ordinary shower.
Quoting 147. Bucsboltsfan:



The good news is that I see our rain forecast for Friday and Saturday has beed lowered on WU from 90% to 60%. Baynew9 who is always very aggressive in their forcasting has us at 70% and 60% which is lowered too. Rains will continue but hopefully not at the rate ee have been experiencing.


Well current model guidance doesn't seem to support those drops. Both the European model and the GFS have another potent upper trough and surface trough stalling across Central FL in the long term. The NWS raised pops to 70% for Friday and Saturday and have 60% all other days for the Tampa Bay area except they have 50% for tomorrow.

Let's face it, a deep tropical air mass and troughing persisting is the model consensus, there will be day to day differences, some days will be wetter than other, but long term guidance is remaining just as wet, and shows us having an event matching this weekends one. The difference is that the GFS is more dramatic on rainfall forecasting than last time when it was drier, so it's in more agreement with the consistently rainy euro, that means really, even better model consistency than last time.

But, that is the long term, model guidance could change, but it looks like more of the same. Personally I like all this extra rain, it's keeping the summer heat moderated and it's making the environment lush around here, I don't wish any flooding on anyone though of course.
..."He's a soap box, hero, ..with Star's in His eye's"...






Quoting 150. BobHenson:



The stronger the El Niño, the better the chances it will bring a healthy wet season as far north as the California Sierra. Of course, the winter snowpack will also depend on temperature; it was unprecedented warmth that truly wiped out the Sierra's 2014-15 snowpack. An LA Times article from the other day has some good perspective on these questions:

It's critical El Niño hits northern California

The article shows how far South Nino moisture stays.. If we had additional reservoirs in the impacted area it could help, but for what I'm sure is a very practical reason we don't, so we'll all just get to watch the water rescues in the normally dry LA river.. woohoo...

Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

Doom and gloom Florida rain...
Doom and Gloom El nino..
Wash rinse and repeat....

Anyway We need something to track badly in the Atlantic...Something like a Bill (2009)or Ganzalo from last year..Hell even something like Earl(2010) to give us some excitement...


I live in SE Louisiana. I can do without that kind of excitement.
Quoting 153. Patrap:

..."He's a soap box, hero, ..with Star's in His eye's"...







I expect serious dips in the jet during this Nino..I cant help wondering what odd and freaky weather is in store...Maybe that Florida blizzard...pft..
This is interesting from Canada:-

"Dramatic footage of a group of storm chasers pursuing a "massive wedge tornado" across Tilston, Manitoba,..."

Link


Quoting 157. PCCfan:



I live in SE Louisiana. I can do without that kind of excitement.
The storms I listed (For the most part) either had a brush with land or stayed out to sea.
That Manitoba wedge Nado yesterday was on the ground 2.5-3 Hours .

It was a serious long tracker for Canada.
Screenshot from Reed Timmers video yesterday of the Wedge.

Quoting 161. Patrap:

That Manitoba wedge Nado yesterday was on the ground 2.5-3 Hours .

It was a serious long tracker for Canada.
Yessir...those twisters kicksas whereever dego......I have only seen two in my life...they wer puss


Eastern Atlantic
Quoting 162. Patrap:

Screenshot from Reed Timmers video yesterday of the Wedge.


I prayGod I never see that coming at me house...or anyone else's for that matter.
7/28/2015 5:30:16 PM
The Atlantic basin will continue to remain quiet for much of this week as chances for any tropical development look very slim. The only feature of significance is a stalled frontal boundary off the southeastern U.S. coast extending across Florida into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
A couple of weak surface lows tracking along the frontal boundary from Florida to just west of Bermuda will track into a zone of strong vertical wind shear. So, we feel tropical development associated with this low center is unlikely.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin, strong wind shear and a large Saharan dust layer continue to inhibit tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and much of the southwest Atlantic. These unfavorable environmental conditions are likely to continue through the rest of this week and into the upcoming weekend. As a result tropical development is not expected through the next 5-7 days.
Last week we heard the storm approach so we grabbed our stuff and headed off the beach.. had not seen clouds like this before without any rotation.. checked radar and tops where only 30K got a good 5 minute shower and a 'micro-pfft' of maybe 25 out of it? Looked cool though...

Quoting 158. hydrus:

I expect serious dips in the jet during this Nino..I cant help wondering what odd and freaky weather is in store...Maybe that Florida blizzard...pft..
yeah im wondering if we will get a serious freeze this coming winter, hasn't happened in awhile in my area.
Just saw a peanut show in a Fla. Jail.

Rather weird stuff.

But it is Tuesday, so........


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
Vertical wind shear to amplify over much of the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic through mid-August. #TCKiller
Canadian also has it there this weekend........................................... ...
Quoting 158. hydrus:

I expect serious dips in the jet during this Nino..I cant help wondering what odd and freaky weather is in store...Maybe that Florida blizzard...pft..


a HARD freeze that went all the way down the state would be a great thing for pushing back invasive's pepper, Australian pines, malelueca, pythons, nile lizards...
Quoting 154. DCSwithunderscores:



Do you know the date of the photograph?


These are actually Kelvin Helmholtz waves. They are common when there is a sharp temperature inversion and
wind difference above and below it. Dramatic looking though but the actual phenomenon that produces them is innocuous
Look at all that rain coming this way. -_-
Quoting 148. dansat:

I continue to think that we need to be careful when looking at a sample size of just two strong El Nino's. The 1997-98 event had much cooler water in the Eastern Pacific compared to now. This very warm water off the U.S. West Coast is likely to play a significant role in this event.


Temperate Pacific warming is separate from El Nino. THese warm east pacific midlatitudes worry me too when planning on or expecting a "classic" El Nino reponse this winter.
Quoting 175. indianrivguy:



a HARD freeze that went all the way down the state would be a great thing for pushing back invasive's pepper, Australian pines, malelueca, pythons, nile lizards...


Just a warning, those Hard freeze's have minimal effects on Guv'nas,

: )
Was about to sign off and go home and just saw the swirl (below) on the radar loop (and what looks like proto banding exiting florida towards the swirl)...............................No speculation here...............Just a big "sigh" as in here we go again with the swirls and whirls like yesterday on the Gulf side.

Southeast sector loop

See Yall Tomorrow morning.............Pretty certain that nothing is going to spin up overnight....................... :)
Quoting 158. hydrus:

I expect serious dips in the jet during this Nino..I cant help wondering what odd and freaky weather is in store...Maybe that Florida blizzard...pft..

You ain't seen nuthing yet!
That Canada twister is something of an aperitif?
Quoting 79. Climate175:

Good to stay good and hydrated during hot times!


And make sure it's water. Neither beer nor soda are good in this kind of heat however good they might
initially taste.

Quoting 73. Drakoen:



It's up in the air as to what will happen this winter. 1997 had a much stronger monthly PDO value at this time: 2.76 than we do at 1.54 which is comparable to the PDO value in 1957 1.76. In 1997 the NAO was mostly positive in JFM, while in 1958 JFM the NAO was strongly negative.


1957-58 was a very snowy and moderately cold winter in the mid atlantic. THe Cherryblossoms were record late peaking (April 18) in 1958. That winter in Florida was VERY cold and uncharacteristically stormy with a polar jet displaced far south and midlatitude disturbances going through the peninsula in the form and maturity you usually see them 5 degrees further north.
Quoting 177. Gearsts:

Look at all that rain coming this way. -_-

What is that north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola?
Quoting 166. hydrus:

I prayGod I never see that coming at me house...or anyone else's for that matter.


it will make a grown man cry !! I've seen 4 like that ..
Quoting 185. Camerooski:

What is that north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola?
TUTT
Quoting 185. Camerooski:

What is that north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola?



Its a Upper Level Low

One can always pull up the current NHC twdat for info on all the Basin



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015



CARIBBEAN SEA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN A SAHARAN AIRMASS
PREVAILS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR DOMINATES THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE...


A SMALL AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS IS OBSERVED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N64W.


A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF
COLOMBIA. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


I'm proud of my soapbox rant..No one can ever say I was quiet about anything on here and when I see wrong I speak up..

I rather stand against the bully behavior on this blog than to be associated as approving of it..

Now ask are you proud of YOURSELF?





Quoting 152. Jedkins01:



Well current model guidance doesn't seem to support those drops. Both the European model and the GFS have another potent upper trough and surface trough stalling across Central FL in the long term. The NWS raised pops to 70% for Friday and Saturday and have 60% all other days for the Tampa Bay area except they have 50% for tomorrow.

Let's face it, a deep tropical air mass and troughing persisting is the model consensus, there will be day to day differences, some days will be wetter than other, but long term guidance is remaining just as wet, and shows us having an event matching this weekends one. The difference is that the GFS is more dramatic on rainfall forecasting than last time when it was drier, so it's in more agreement with the consistently rainy euro, that means really, even better model consistency than last time.

But, that is the long term, model guidance could change, but it looks like more of the same. Personally I like all this extra rain, it's keeping the summer heat moderated and it's making the environment lush around here, I don't wish any flooding on anyone though of course.

I say keep the rain coming. We haven't even had above normal rains here yet. I like the environment lush and balmy.
The stronger the El Niño, the better the chances it will bring a healthy wet season as far north as the California Sierra. Of course, the winter snowpack will also depend on temperature; it was unprecedented warmth that truly wiped out the Sierra's 2014-15 snowpack. An LA Times article from the other day has some good perspective on these questions:


Very true, the CPC's long range (california wet season) forecast also shows the sierra's as warmer than average....however i haven't seen a graph as to how warm and that will make the difference for snowpack
Quoting 142. BobHenson:
Great presentation by Alex Tardy at NWS/San Diego! As he points out, strong El Ninos are much more reliable rain producers for California than weak or moderate events. As for PlazaRed's original question (comment 53), it's a good topic for a future blog. The intersection of El Nino and La Nina with California's long-term climate history (including megadroughts of the distant past) is a fascinating research question. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation also plays a major role over longer time periods.... Bob
Hi Bob,

I'm delighted I could bring something useful to the group's attention. If you or Dr. Masters get a chance, I'd love to get your take on the "hot water" that is the current bane of Northwest fisheries. Hot water.... global warming. Something is starting to add up.... to impending disaster.

[COPY]

In hot water: Columbia's sockeye salmon face mass die-off

Warm water temperatures have made life 'grim' for sockeye salmon in the Pacific Northwest
Al-Jazeera, July 27, 2015 

     http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/7/27/h alf-of-columbia-rivers-sockeye-salmon-dying-due-to -heat.html

More than a quarter million sockeye salmon returning from the ocean to spawn are either dead or dying in the Columbia River and its tributaries due to warming water temperatures.Federal and state fisheries biologists say the warm water is lethal for the cold-water species and is wiping out at least half of this year's return of 500,000 fish and by the end of the season that death toll could grow  to as high as 400,000.....  "The flow is abnormally low, but on top of that we've had superhot temperatures for a really long time," he said.  [Continues at website...]
Quoting 145. Dakster:

Dr. Henson,

Do you have any comments or further analysis on what a strong El Niño does to Alaska? Most of the reading I find tends to indicate the results are very diverse. It can be warmer, colder, more snow, or less snow that normal.

Thanks.

Well if I were in Alaska, I would be primarily concerned about the activities to the north of me.
As we speculated a few weeks ago the ice melt is, or rather was about to go into free fall. Its now doing that.



Add to this a lot of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and of course the ice picture below.



I would say its going to be a lot warmer in the intermediate term, with major environmental changes in store for Alaska.
These may not be pronounced in every year but with the permafrost about to melt in a big way, things are defiantly going to change.
Any effects of El Niño will be limited to its cycle but it may be a catalyst for more regular climatic changes in the Alaska area.

The more northern realms will probably experience more radical climatic changes from these global anomalies like El Niño!
hopefully the ull acc/ with the tutt will interact with an approaching TW. the windwards need some showers.
Will the east coast get some of the rain as well?
Quoting 190. HurrMichaelOrl:


I say keep the rain coming. We haven't even had above normal rains here yet. I like the environment lush and balmy.
Why do average citizens and other non-weather experts like myself come to WUnderground?

For incredibly detailed, insightful, wide-ranging yet accessible posts like Dr Henson's here. Wow.
Quoting 175. indianrivguy:



a HARD freeze that went all the way down the state would be a great thing for pushing back invasive's pepper, Australian pines, malelueca, pythons, nile lizards...
I dunno about the maleueca's...They enjoy the power of many...When I was a kid i would climb 2o feet up in one, swing back and forth until it snapped..It would break my fall just enough not to be harmed..it was fun indeed.. If we werent fishing mullet and crabs, we were in the glades exploring...:) Shark river was one of my favorites, and probably the most dangerous.
Quoting 179. Patrap:



Just a warning, those Hard freeze's have minimal effects on Guv'nas,

: )
Yeah, certain ones are impervious to hard freezes. And logic. And science. And compassion. And a sense of what's right and what's fair. And...
200. vis0

Quoting 90. LargoFl:

check out the spin down by the islands........................................... ..
If its the one over Northern Antilles &  Puerto Rico, See the life story of this small spin at my zilly pg,  cmmnt# 33 THERE
Interesting wave, it has a nice structure.
Quoting 179. Patrap:



Just a warning, those Hard freeze's have minimal effects on Guv'nas,

: )


neither do felony's or scientists... he's been anointed by the kochtopus.. nothing touches him now.. he's going to run for Senator next..
Quoting 186. whitewabit:



it will make a grown man cry !! I've seen 4 like that ..
Or die..Tornadoes are the most dangerous of all weather phenomenon....jmo
Quoting 201. Climate175:



That is really interesting, considering that the area has been experiencing a somewhat cool period up to now.

Here's the WU plan for the next few days in the area:-

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:12201.1.99999

Link
Quoting 204. indianrivguy:



neither do felony's or scientists... he's been anointed by the kochtopus.. nothing touches him now.. he's going to run for Senator next..


Ouch'
It's pretty remarkable to see the MDR and Caribbean so dry this time of year, really devoid of any convection. Many of the islands are going to end up in a real tough spot in terms of drought, as we've already heard from bloggers living on them. I've been thinking of what we should expect for the rest of this season. My original forecast was 8-4-1. No going back now, but if I had to change things I'd probably revise it slightly to 8-3-0. I would not have expected three storms by mid-July at the start of the season. Let's face it though, all three were very weak and while they've inflated our totals a bit in the named storms department, their ACE was negligible, about 4 units. As far as I can tell, there isn't a single positive factor for TC formation in the deep tropics this year. We'll have to keep watching the subtropics and off the East Coast, but those areas tend to be less productive anyways, and there's little to suggest it'll be much more active than usual in those regions. Per Wikipedia, the lowest ACE for any season on record is 17 units in 1983. Realistically, I'd say there's about a 30% chance this season sets a new low, which I think is a pretty aggressive figure given how early in the season it still is. My target range would be ~15-35 units, considerably less than my preseason thinking which was 40-60% of normal, or roughly 35-55 units. I believe CSU releases their own midseason update a week from today, they have been forecasting 8-3-1 and ACE of 40 units.

Oh my. If this happens as all the models suggest then flooding will become a major concern even in my area not just the west coast.

Constant thunder here from a big storm over Lake Apopka.


Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:

Oh my. If this happens as all the models suggest then flooding will become a major concern even in my area not just the west coast.





Good grief, wanna collaborate on an ark? I don't think I've seen the WPC put out a max of 11 inches outside of the Pacific northwest mountains. This forecast is much to do with excellent agreement between the GFS and the Euro on another front stalling in the gulf, it seems guidance is suggesting this may be even a more significant rain maker than last time, if that's even possible.

I wouldn't jump the gun on this yet though, it's still several days out, so a lot could change. But if model guidance does remain in agreement, people should consider getting a disaster kit ready if the live near rivers or swamps in West Central FL.
Hey Scott, Oh by the way I quoted to one of your post earlier today about not receiving much rain here in ECFL, you asked were I was located. I'm in Melbourne. Think the models will show a good amount of rain here on the coast?
Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:

Oh my. If this happens as all the models suggest then flooding will become a major concern even in my area not just the west coast.


since midnight, the Orlando TDWR shows 1.7 inches digital storm total, and 1.8 inches storm total inside the 124 NM rangegate. No need to be building Ark's.
Lions and tigers and Lows,.....O My'


Quoting 190. HurrMichaelOrl:


I say keep the rain coming. We haven't even had above normal rains here yet. I like the environment lush and balmy.


It's odd how the east side of the state has missed as much as it has. I mean, its normal for the west coast to get a lot more in this pattern, but it's been more dramatic than usual. And me too, I agree, it's been lush and balmy here for most of July, you'd love it. Can't even remember the last time we got any higher than the 88-91 range for highs, and most days have been 83-86 thanks to all the clouds and the onshore flow.
PBS is about to run the "Bomb". . Off to watch it.
Quoting 205. hydrus:

Or die..Tornadoes are the most dangerous of all weather phenomenon....jmo
Quoting 205. hydrus:

Or die..Tornadoes are the most dangerous of all weather phenomenon....jmo


Where do you place heat waves? They certainly kill far more people each year.
irg, I dropped you a lil note in wu mail.
Quoting 157. PCCfan:



I live in SE Louisiana. I can do without that kind of excitement.


agreed from Mobile.
Quoting 219. MrNatural:



Where do you place heat waves? They certainly kill far more people each year.


True, but with reasonable care and paying attention to advice, most heatwaves can be seen coming and survived. If a tornado drops down on you at night with a high enough EF there's not much that can be done. The loss of life in heat waves is mostly because the rest of us don't do enough to save them. Sometimes a mirror is one's worst enemy.
the ? is will this strong EL NINO be a Villain or bring welcome rains too N CA
*
Quoting 224. Tazmanian:

the ? is will this strong EL NINO be a Villain or bring welcome rains too N CA
Hi Taz. Overall, I think you can expect a drier pattern interspersed with occasional amounts of heavy constipation. Just my opinion.
Interesting that the rain is moving from north to south along the west coast. Complete reversal from this morning.

Quoting 224. Tazmanian:

the ? is will this strong EL NINO be a Villain or bring welcome rains too N CA
the A: = yes!
Quoting 226. Llamaluvr:

Hi Taz. Overall, I think you can expect a drier pattern interspersed with occasional amounts of heavy constipation. Just my opinion.



lol we dont need other dry winters if this winter is dry then are lakes will be down too mube pubbles has they are all ready vary low


EL nino normly brings well above norml rains to N CA wish will be vary welcome this year i dont think the atmes faer is in the same state has it was in the past two winters in CA its now in a strong EL nino state and i hop it brings good news along with it and not other dry winter and a few moths from now i want too be talking about flooding rains on here
Quoting 219. MrNatural:



Where do you place heat waves? They certainly kill far more people each year.


I think he meant it in terms of - you cannot predict accurately where a tornado will land, how strong it'll be, what it will do etc.. Heatwaves on the other hand are generally easier to forecast and there are many measures you can take to reduce the impact of a heatwave on your health. They are more deadly than tornados, but I know I'd much rather deal with a heatwave than a tornado. Heatwaves will likely become more common and more deadly in the future, especially with an aging population.
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:

Interesting that the rain is moving from north to south along the west coast. Complete reversal from this morning.


Obviously because a low has reorganized off the NE coast
Quoting 100. JustDucky251:



My mother was in DC making maps for the troops during WW2 and she used to say it was ungodly hot there in the summers. I have no empirical evidence, but wonder were there other long hot summers in DC?


I thought it was always ungodly hot in DC every summer?
Quoting 229. Tazmanian:




EL nino normly brings well above norml rains to N CA wish will be vary welcome this year i dont think the atmes faer is in the same state has it was in the past two winters in CA its now in a strong EL nino state and i hop it brings good news along with it and not other dry winter and a few moths from now i want too be talking about flooding rains on here
I think California as a whole is doomed to disappointment and problems. The few heavy rains that will possibly happen will most likely be in the San Gabriels where the fires have been and most of that will wind up in the catch basins with cars and pieces of houses. The rest of the state should plan for low precip and little to no snow, thanks to the Blob.
Quoting 233. CaneFreeCR:

I think California as a whole is doomed to disappointment and problems. The few heavy rains that will possibly happen will most likely be in the San Gabriels where the fires have been and most of that will wind up in the catch basins with cars and pieces of houses. The rest of the state should plan for low precip and little to no snow, thanks to the Blob.



that blob is weaking wish is good
Who thinks well see a major storm hit the US this year. I do.
that blob of warm water has weak in quit a bit in fact it has weak in to march that i do not see that being part of the roll in this fall and winter season in CA wish is a good thing


Quoting 157. PCCfan:
I live in SE Louisiana. I can do without that kind of excitement.


Quoting 221. JustDucky251:

agreed from Mobile.


Ditto from Daphne. We've had more than our share around Mobile Bay in recent decades.
Quoting 232. VermontStorms:



I thought it was always ungodly hot in DC every summer?
So hot it was a "hardship post" for British embassy personnel before a.c. was in wide use there.
Quoting 219. MrNatural:



Where do you place heat waves? They certainly kill far more people each year.
Good evening Mr. N.....Heat waves are one of the most deadly. I place tornadoes as the most dangerous because of there suddenness and freakish nature.. Joplin, MO lost over 150 people in less than an hour...Heat waves are predictable, and aid can be sent days before such an event if funding is available. Tornadoes can occur even when there is not a watch issued , and even when there is, time to take action is short.
Ruskin/Tampa sounding is continued to be perfectly primed for a heavy rain event, with a PW of 2.29 and a decent amount of CAPE given not a very warm day, and as a result, it's surprising that most of the convection this morning didn't make it onshore except for here in Pinellas County where one round brought 1-3 inches in most of the county. I'm sure some who live near the flooded rivers aren't complaining.



My guess is that atmosphere is a bit overworked after such an event. Eventually, something will give, and as long as the sounding looks like this, and models forecast just that, more major rain events will happen.
Quoting 236. HurricaneAndre:

Who thinks well see a major storm hit the US this year. I do.

I have a hunch for mid/late August
Here south of Sebring, Fl. we have gotten less then an inch of rain out of this system. It's really sad how concentrated it's been. This whole rainy season has been sorry, still have to water everyday. I would love to learn why the storms go around the north end of Lake Istokpoga the way they do.
Quoting 236. HurricaneAndre:

Who thinks well see a major storm hit the US this year. I do.
better question is who thinks the atlantic will produce a major hurricane in the MDR? been a while since we had one there
Quoting 236. HurricaneAndre:

Who thinks well see a major storm hit the US this year. I do.

Yesterday, you said there would be no more Atlantic major hurricanes and the seasonal scoreline would be 0/0/0 here on out. Today you're saying that the USA will see a major storm this year. Which is it?
Quoting 245. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yesterday, you said there would be no more Atlantic major hurricanes and the seasonal scoreline would be 0/0/0 here on out. Today you're saying that the USA will see a major storm this year. Which is it?
yep. I've learned my lesson from yesterday. I had inspiration talks yesterday. But I really do see an uptick in atlantic activity very soon. Cody sorry for scaring you like that.
Quoting 244. wunderweatherman123:

better question is who thinks the atlantic will produce a major hurricane in the MDR? been a while since we had one there


well i can tell you no that there is a 500% ch that we will not see any major hurricane in the MDR
News said earlier a State of Emergency could be declared across FL if this weekend's forecast verifies so that Federal Aid can be handed to people who need it.

Target area appears like it might be C FL.

12Z Euro thru 168hrs.
Quoting 246. HurricaneAndre:

yep. I've learned my lesson from yesterday. I had inspiration talks yesterday. But I really do see an uptick in atlantic activity very soon. Cody sorry for scaring you like that.



the doc says we will not be seeing any thing out there for the the next 5 too 7 days may be even longer
Like it was in slower years such as 2013/2014, I am still very wary and watching out for a Betsy, Andrew, Alicia, etc......
Quoting 247. Tazmanian:



well i can tell you no that there is a 500% ch that we will not see any major hurricane in the MDR
omg! i better get ready...


Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Major flooding already ongoing across western FL and another 10" to 15" of rain would be disastrous.



even the E PAC has not been doing well even no where in a strong EL nino it seems like we are lacking be hild this season has last season we where a head i think we where up to TD 11 at this time last year this where we are olny up to TD 8 wish wont get a name and last year not one TD was lost it was a full house has far has nameing gos with TD 4E takeing a name from the C PAC and TD 8 not getting name that mess up the nameing list so the next storm that will get the G storm would be 91E
Quoting 251. Gearsts:

omg! i better get ready...
Sustained winds at 256,000 mph, with gusts to 298,000 mph..Barometric pressure 00.01 inches...instant death...pft..
What "new's" said that STS?

Cuz to state that here one should really have a link.

Lots of People look here for insight, not unsubstantiated claims of "Federal AId" before anything has formed, or any entity forecasted to hit.

Thanx
Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:

News said earlier a State of Emergency could be declared across FL if this weekend's forecast verifies so that Federal Aid can be handed to people who need it.

Target area appears like it might be C FL.

12Z Euro thru 168hrs.



If we do get as much as the model consensus shows it would be bad no doubt, the WPC forecast is probably one of the biggest qpf amounts I've seen them show, and it's about double for the nature coast and the Tampa Bay area than they had for this last weekend.

Again though, let's not count our meteorological chickens before they hatch, a lot could still change. But strong model agreement usually does mean large changes are unlikely.
Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:

Major flooding already ongoing across western FL and another 10" to 15" of rain would be disastrous.




Yep...Reminds me how everyone felt in 92 with Andrew coming. The south half was drenched, and then people thought that the hurricane would sink us..Turns out Andrew was moving so quick, rain was certainly not the problem.
Quoting 257. Jedkins01:



If we do get as much as the model consensus shows it would be bad no doubt, the WPC forecast is probably one of the biggest qpf amounts I've seen them show, and it's about double for the nature coast and the Tampa Bay area than they had for this last weekend.

Again though, let's not count our meteorological chickens before they hatch, a lot could still change. But strong model agreement usually does mean large changes are unlikely.


Event starts Friday
Flood warnings, watches remain in effect as more rain arrives

ST. PETERSBURG --

Flood warnings remain in effect for the Anclote River and Cypress Creek, and a flood watch has been extended through tomorrow evening for Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough counties.

Due to another round of thunderstorms, a Flood Advisory has been issued for Citrus and Hernando County until 10:45 p.m. tonight. This is for localized flooding in low-lying spots as the storms pass.

It's been raining on and off since Friday in west-central Florida, and showers and storms are again moving through. Flooding has been reported in Holiday.
The warning for Anclote River at Elfers, where mandatory home evacuations were ordered Sunday, goes until Friday. The warning for Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens extends until Saturday morning.

Elfers is in southwest Pasco County, and Worthington Gardens is in south central Pasco.

The Anclote River crested Monday morning and has been falling slowly since. However, if additional heavy rain falls across the river basin today the river could hold at current levels or rise again.

“It’s pretty much just another day,” said Brian Vandam. Vandam has grown up in Elfers. “It was way worse, the waters gone way down. The water was on top of the porch there.”

He says flooding there is common but it hasn’t been this bad since 2012 during Tropical Storm Debby.

Fortunately his dad's home is elevated but many people around the area aren’t so lucky. Seeing fish and people with boats on streets has become the norm.

“It’s definitely frustrating, aggravating,” said Vandam.

The county says in the Elfers and Trinity Oaks area, dozens if not hundreds of people have evacuated but Al Clark, who has lived in Elfers for 35 years, isn’t one of them.

“People ask me, ‘why do you stay here?’ like I told them yesterday I own the dirt, I own whats on the dirt,” said Clark.

He says that’s not the only reason.

“If you leave you’re afraid you might lose some of what you’ve got and then there’s just the dumb people out there that just like to tear stuff up,” said Clark.

That’s why the sheriff's office has been patrolling the wet area every few hours.

So far the county says about 40 structures, mostly homes, have reported damage from flooding. It does expect those numbers to rise.

The evacuation order in the Elfers area is expected to be in affect until at least Wednesday.

The county says it has put nearly $5 million in projects to reduce flooding in the county since Tropical Storm Debby.
Quoting 194. PlazaRed:


Well if I were in Alaska, I would be primarily concerned about the activities to the north of me.
As we speculated a few weeks ago the ice melt is, or rather was about to go into free fall. Its now doing that.



Add to this a lot of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and of course the ice picture below.



I would say its going to be a lot warmer in the intermediate term, with major environmental changes in store for Alaska.
These may not be pronounced in every year but with the permafrost about to melt in a big way, things are defiantly going to change.
Any effects of El Niño will be limited to its cycle but it may be a catalyst for more regular climatic changes in the Alaska area.

The more northern realms will probably experience more radical climatic changes from these global anomalies like El Niño!


Thanks for the insight. Even though we are a new to Alaska family with just a year under our belt - it is apparently even to us that things are changing. Mainly because I watch how the people that have lived here all their life are reacting.

The other reason I was asking is because I know I can head off a bad snow season if I go out and buy a snow blower today.
Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:

News said earlier a State of Emergency could be declared across FL if this weekend's forecast verifies so that Federal Aid can be handed to people who need it.

Target area appears like it might be C FL.

12Z Euro thru 168hrs.


I haven't heard that one about declaring a state of emergency.
I would question that one, but if it happens let's hope Portlight gets into gear helping the disabled in Florida. I only recall that one lone family in Live Oak that they helped years ago, and a few walking sticks they shipped in.....the only time as a contributor who gets their updates that they've ventured below Georgia and helped the disabled in Florida, as far as I know.
From Farmer's Almanac SE US Weather
AUGUST 2015
1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Showers and thunderstorms, then skies turn mostly fair.
8th-11th. Scattered thunderstorms, then fair.
12th-15th. Pleasant.
16th-19th. Thunderstorms from Tennessee east to the Carolinas, then clearing skies.
20th-23rd. Scattered thunderstorms. A hurricane threat for Florida.
24th-27th. Humid, showery weather conditions.
28th-31st. Scattered thunderstorms.
Quoting 262. CosmicEvents:


I haven't heard that one about declaring a state of emergency.
I would question that one, but if it happens let's hope Portlight gets into gear helping the disabled in Florida. I only recall that one lone family in Live Oak that they helped years ago, and a few walking sticks they shipped in.....the only time as a contributor who gets their updates that they've ventured below Georgia and helped the disabled in Florida, as far as I know.


On the news earlier and just a bit ago too. We haven't seen a forecast like this from the WPC folks since the "No Named" storm of October 2011 where as much as 8" to 16" of rain fell all across E C FL.
O look, a ULL spinner

A Threater, or a Dust ball?

We report, you decide.



~and I thought
I
had chicken little issues....

No preeminent disaster statements for the State of Florida, folks.
Volusia County, FL Flood Relief
By: Portlight , 2:00 PM CDT on May 27, 2009



This is where Portlight began the wunderful relationship with the Red Cross,only 7 mths on wunderground at the time.

The archives are easy to navigate too.

Quoting 15. presslord:

June 02, 2009

Red Cross shelter closed

By DEBORAH CIRCELLI
Staff writer

DAYTONA BEACH -- The American Red Cross closed its shelter at Westside Baptist Church on Monday morning and is referring people to Volusia County for other services.

The Florida's Coast to Coast Chapter closed the last of three shelters it had opened during the areas flood damage. A total of 65 people were helped at the three shelters, including 18 on Sunday night.


G'night, stay dry.

PWAT of 2.4 around Tampa Bay (if i'm doing this right)- oh my!

Earthquake... 6.2

Look put Pedley you are next...

Shook the whole house. I don't like that it was close to a volcano (redoubt). That goes we will have some weather changes to talk about on the pacnw.
pouring here in Largo again. I had a feeling we would get more storms just like last night. We have had 1.5 inches of rain tonight and pretty much all of it has been after the sun went down
Welp, we have 35-40 DBZ over us, yet it's pouring again. Surprisingly, the cells to my north have a lot of lightning.
Quoting 256. Patrap:

What "new's" said that STS?

Cuz to state that here one should really have a link.

Lots of People look here for insight, not unsubstantiated claims of "Federal AId" before anything has formed, or any entity forecasted to hit.

Thanx


I was looking for the same thing.
Quoting 273. Hurricanes101:

pouring here in Largo again. I had a feeling we would get more storms just like last night. We have had 1.5 inches of rain tonight and pretty much all of it has been after the sun went down


It's amazing these little cells could put down such heavy rain, a typically moist environment would probably squeeze out a quarter inch from these.
Quoting 276. Jedkins01:



It's amazing these little cells could put down such heavy rain, a typically moist environment would probably squeeze out a quarter inch from these.


could it have to do with the humidity being higher at night the last few days because of how low the temps have been during the day?

That and how slow these cells are moving
Quoting 274. Jedkins01:

Welp, we have 35-40 DBZ over us, yet it's pouring again. Surprisingly, the cells to my north have a lot of lightning.


That one cell just to my west is producing some evening fireworks.
Local Fox 13 didn't say anything about a state of emergency. One neighborhood in Pasco County continues to be flooded but that's about it. The weather wasn't even the top story.

Quoting 272. Dakster:

Earthquake... 6.2

Look put Pedley you are next...

Shook the whole house. I don't like that it was close to a volcano (redoubt). That goes we will have some weather changes to talk about on the pacnw.
   No Thanks, I'm Good without another of those...
Quoting 272. Dakster:

Earthquake... 6.2

Look put Pedley you are next...

Shook the whole house. I don't like that it was close to a volcano (redoubt). That goes we will have some weather changes to talk about on the pacnw.
There've been several big bumps around the Ring of Fire this last few days. Hang onto something steady, Dakster!
Quoting 271. aquak9:
PWAT of 2.4 around Tampa Bay (if i'm doing this right)- oh my!



I think you're right.
You've always known pwats pwat about lots of things.
Quoting 263. unknowncomic:

From Farmer's Almanac SE US Weather
AUGUST 2015
1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Showers and thunderstorms, then skies turn mostly fair.
8th-11th. Scattered thunderstorms, then fair.
12th-15th. Pleasant.
16th-19th. Thunderstorms from Tennessee east to the Carolinas, then clearing skies.
20th-23rd. Scattered thunderstorms. A hurricane threat for Florida.
24th-27th. Humid, showery weather conditions.
28th-31st. Scattered thunderstorms.


I wouldn't pay much attention to that. I've been looking at it since the season began and if it were right, we'd have had an extra 3+ storms by now. :p

Below is a Terra 4km pieced together images from 7/10/2015 of the Arctic from NASA.


This one is from 17 days later on 7/27/2015.

maybe watch this one
Quoting 276. Jedkins01:



It's amazing these little cells could put down such heavy rain, a typically moist environment would probably squeeze out a quarter inch from these.


After only ~0.10" from a shower earlier this afternoon (we apparently missed out on the heaviest stuff), the heavy showers that came through early this evening brought us to around 0.6" rain. So I am not blown away about any extreme weather here, but am satisfied. The next two days now have rain chances of only 30% here, and go back up to 70% thereafter. What a weird summer. Any rain we can get, from whatever bazaar pattern, I will gladly take. I am actually enjoying the mildish mugginess, particularly being so heavily invested now in my orchid and palm collections.
Upper Level Low north of Puerto Rico.
Quoting 287. Skyepony:

Upper Level Low north of Puerto Rico.

Maybe some relief.
Quoting 281. CaneFreeCR:

There've been several big bumps around the Ring of Fire this last few days. Hang onto something steady, Dakster!


::fingers in ears:: Lalalala. If I pretend it doesn't exist, then it isn't a real. That's how the world works, right?

In all honesty, after the pretty major quakes over the last decade or so (2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Japan 9.0, 2010 Chile 8.8) it does make one wonder when it's our turn. Especially since the Cascadia fault is due. Not that it's anything new to people living here, there's a reason I've got over 10 earthquake songs to teach to the little ones at work when we prepare for the annual Shakeout Drill on October 15.
Panama and Columbia had some 6's a few hours ago too. Volcanic activity and swarms around volcanoes are up this week too. Today's was in Japan.
Quoting 272. Dakster:

Earthquake... 6.2

Look put Pedley you are next...

Shook the whole house. I don't like that it was close to a volcano (redoubt). That goes we will have some weather changes to talk about on the pacnw.


Lived across the inlet from Redoubt when I lived in Alaska .. each morning when we would get up we'd look to see if she was smoking .. if she was chances for an earthquake were higher ..
I'm back from san jose. I've been there for 4 days and i'll have some weather pics including a wildfire viewed from the plane.
Quoting 271. aquak9:

PWAT of 2.4 around Tampa Bay (if i'm doing this right)- oh my!





Ay carumba! They're getting an epic rain event!
Quoting 292. TimTheWxMan:

I'm back from san jose. I've been there for 4 days and i'll have some weather pics including a wildfire viewed from the plane.
Hey Tim. Been missing you man.
Quoting 280. PedleyCA:


   No Thanks, I'm Good without another of those...



You better let mother nature know then. I don't have a say in it...

Quoting 291. whitewabit:



Lived across the inlet from Redoubt when I lived in Alaska .. each morning when we would get up we'd look to see if she was smoking .. if she was chances for an earthquake were higher ..


Neat... I suppose.. Living up here seems to have its challenges even moreso than when I was in Miami.

Quoting 281. CaneFreeCR:

There've been several big bumps around the Ring of Fire this last few days. Hang onto something steady, Dakster!


What would that be? EVERYTHING is shaking and moving when they hit... It is amazing that from Homer to Fairbanks the quake was felt. That's a long way and across a few mountain ranges.... For example, Denali/Mt. McKinley is in between Anchorage and Fairbanks.
Taz, Your starting to remind me of STS last year about el nino.
We all understand what your opinion is by now.
Thanks

!
Quoting 247. Tazmanian:



well i can tell you no that there is a 500% ch that we will not see any major hurricane in the MDR
Quoting 232. VermontStorms:



I thought it was always ungodly hot in DC every summer?


It does get hot to be sure, but the kicker is the humidity. It's basically a swamp and there isn't a whole lot of wind in the summer unless a front moves through. Average temps in the upper 80's in July, with an average relative humidity around 60-70%. Moist.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2015
8:30 AM IST July 29 2015
========================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over northeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hrs and lays centered near 21.0N 91.0E, about 160 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

The system would move nearly northward and cross Bangladesh coast between 90.5E and 91.5E around Thursday before noon. After landfall, it would move west northwestwards and weaken gradually.

According to satellite imagery, Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knot with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough. The central pressure of the deep depression is 994 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
9 HRS: 21.6N 91.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 22.4N 91.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
45 HRS: 23.0N 89.5E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
================
Though the sea surface temperature around the region of system center is 31C the ocean thermal energy is less and is about 50-60kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear is 15-20 knots around the system center. The low level relative vorticity is about 200 x 10-5 second-1 and low level convergence is 40 x 10-5 second-1. The upper level divergence is 40 x 10-5 second-1 and there is favorable equatorward outflow. All these conditions have led to intensification of the system into deep depression.

However, the system is interacting with upper tropospheric trough to the northeast, which is helping the intrusion of dry air into the system at middle and upper tropospheric level. Further the regions of maxima of low level convergence, vorticity and upper level divergence differ from each other. The system is also interacting with land surface, which will inhibit further intensification. Under the influence of large scale monsoon circulation in lower and middle troposphere, the system would move initially nearly northward during next 24 hrs and then west northwestwards.
Quoting 297. Xyrus2000:



It does get hot to be sure, but the kicker is the humidity. It's basically a swamp and there isn't a whole lot of wind in the summer unless a front moves through. Average temps in the upper 80's in July, with an average relative humidity around 60-70%. Moist.




I spent a few years in Baltimore, and would not volunteer for those summers again! One year my poor cats lost all their hair and went around nekkid, it was so hot. Ugh. I melt just thinking about it.

Wave looking very good.
302. MahFL
Quoting 211. Jedkins01:




Good grief, wanna collaborate on an ark? I don't think I've seen the WPC put out a max of 11 inches outside of the Pacific northwest mountains. This forecast is much to do with excellent agreement between the GFS and the Euro on another front stalling in the gulf, it seems guidance is suggesting this may be even a more significant rain maker than last time, if that's even possible.

I wouldn't jump the gun on this yet though, it's still several days out, so a lot could change. But if model guidance does remain in agreement, people should consider getting a disaster kit ready if the live near rivers or swamps in West Central FL.


Where do you get 11 inches from ?, all I see is 6.9 which is not unheard of for FL in the summer.
303. MahFL
Quoting 301. HurricaneAndre:


Wave looking very good.


It's 100 % doomed though, due to the strong El Nino AND SAL.
Quoting 303. MahFL:



It's 100 % doomed though, due to the strong El Nino AND SAL.


Wind shear map disagrees.

Gulf getting favorable again.
since s.e fl. is in a drought will this increase their odds of a c.v.hit during Aug. and Sept? its already very high in my opinion. still dont understand why their senator voted against storm aid for sandy. too busy looking good for wannabe presidential photos? a big hit? theyll boot him out of town.
308. MahFL
Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:

Major flooding already ongoing across western FL ...>


It's localized flooding in areas prone to flooding, actually. Don't exaggerate.
I cant find a Fla federal aid report like STS was talking about yesterday. Where is it supposed to be?
How come there are no invests in W pac on Levi s site when there seems to be two of them right now?


Another cyclone sandwich would be nice, too.

Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:

Major flooding already ongoing across western FL ...
I suppose it depends on how one defines the term "major flooding". According to NOAA'S AHPS (see the image below), there are no river gauges in Florida showing major--or even moderate--flooding. In fact, just four gauges, all around Tampa, show so much as "minor flooding" (and a few more near the Ocklawaha show that river as "nearing flood stage"). That's not to say there's no water pooling on saturated ground in low-lying areas, as the images show. But "major flooding", with homes and business inundated, roads and vehicles washed away, infrastructure destroyed, and numerous lives endangered? I don't think the Tampa-area rains have induced that just yet.


long range GFS shows possible future mischief by Africa in the coming weeks. That's when the real season will start.
Quoting 312. wunderweatherman123:

long range GFS shows possible future mischief by Africa in the coming weeks. That's when the real season will start.


nope nothing will happen out there this year too dusty with dry stable sinking air and strong wind shear any thing that roll off will meet its doom in the Atlantic or Caribbean Sea with strong trades winds i think ex 93L showed us what things will be like this season the MDR and Caribbean Sea are closed this season
Quoting 306. ColdInFL:

Wow: Link

The only "wow" component to this is that even now, after the man has been thoroughly and repeatedly debunked and discredited and shown to be an anti-science charlatan, some people just can't stop themselves from imbibing the utter drivel that constantly bubbles forth from the lips of Steve "Not My Real Name" Goddard. The issue this time: climate scientists have for years been telling us that, in the long run, average temperatures will increase concomitant with rises in CO2. The data show that to indeed be happening--and now "Goddard", et al, are screaming that that correlation is not evidence of the dangers of rising CO2 emissions, but rather proof of fraud.

Oh, lordy...
Quoting 311. Neapolitan:

I suppose it depends on how one defines the term "major flooding". According to NOAA'S AHPS (see the image below), there are no river gauges in Florida showing major--or even moderate--flooding. In fact, just four gauges, all around Tampa, show so much as "minor flooding" (and a few more near the Ocklawaha show that river as "nearing flood stage"). That's not to say there's no water pooling on saturated ground in low-lying areas, as the images show. But "major flooding", with homes and business inundated, roads and vehicles washed away, infrastructure destroyed, and numerous lives endangered? I don't think the Tampa-area rains have induced that just yet.





Thanks for the clarification, I think its quite obvious said blogger is a doomsdayer where every rain event is catastrophic and central Florida is the center of the universe that is now under water lol. On a side note, is that an eye off the jax coast ;)

Quoting 302. MahFL:



Where do you get 11 inches from ?, all I see is 6.9 which is not unheard of for FL in the summer.


It was the 7-29 0z outlook (shown below). The most recent update has since scaled back.

Good Morning.  Heard a story on the car radio this morning as to a heat wave in Iraq and just looked it up.  Parts of Europe and the US are not the only parts of the world that are experiencing record heat this year/summer:

Associated Press JULY 29, 2015 — 5:00AM

BAGHDAD — Iraq's Council of Ministers has declared a four-day mandatory holiday beginning Thursday as temperatures are set to soar above 50 degrees Celsius (123 degrees Fahrenheit).

The statement, delivered on state-run Iraqiyya TV, is the second heat advisory issued by the Iraqi government this month.

High summer temperatures are standard in Iraq, but widespread power and water cuts complicate everyday life when the temperatures soar.

Residents are typically advised to limit any outdoor activities for the duration of the heat wave.

318. MahFL
Strong language from JAX NWS.

".LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS
AMAZINGLY LOCKED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STATIONARY ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND A WAVY SURFACE FRONT-TROUGH LYING QUASI- STATIONARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH GEORGIA."
And here are the CIMMS charts for the trough off the East Coast/Florida:

Upper Level:



Lower Level:
And the E-Pac/Atlantic with a marginal chance on the weak wave currently exiting Africa:




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a weak low pressure system is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for
some slow development through the weekend while the disturbance
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


The wave is headed into unfavorable conditions for development in terms of dry air issues but look at how much shear has currently dropped in the central Atlantic.  Dry stable air (and not enough moisture along the current ITCZ) gives this wave very little to work with but it has done a nice job so far clearing out some room below the SAL:




Quoting 308. MahFL:



It's localized flooding in areas prone to flooding, actually. Don't exaggerate.


Your serious right as its on National News with one area with 300 homes surrounded by water. Localized you say?
Quoting 322. StormTrackerScott:



Your serious right as its on National News with one area with 300 homes surrounded by water. Localized you say?



I would not be a doubter if you would point me in the right direction for the same news you are getting
Quoting 309. K8eCane:

I cant find a Fla federal aid report like STS was talking about yesterday. Where is it supposed to be?


To be clear a reporter that was reporting on the floods yesterday near Tampa said that if forecast pans out Federal Aid will likely be need as already 300 homes are surrounded by water in Pasco County. I think some on here take post then run away to exaggerate it. The reported is from CNN as this is serious and if these forecast verify then there are going to be serious problems across areas that are already waterlogged.

0Z Euro precip accums thru 168hrs

And BTW as far as the issue of climate change goes, of course the climate is changing. Thats a no brainer. But I am a DOUBTER as to some of what we are fed about it. Thats why im not a denialist, Im a doubter
If anyone one here is from Pasco County here is some information for you below. Apparently this blog is just crazy and can't seem to decipher news reports but anyways for those experiencing this and need help then here you are.

Pasco County sand bag locations

Southwest Pasco County is one of the most flood-prone areas in the region, and the county is offering sand bags in the following locations:
Fire Station #17, 2951 Seven Springs Blvd., New Port Richey
West Pasco Government Center, 7536 State Street, New Port Richey
J.W. Mitchell Park, 4025 Little Rd., New Port Richey
Across from the Fleet Maintenance Building, 6420 Pine Hill Road, New Port Richey.
Pasco officials are urging residents to visit the county's Emergency Management web page and monitor Pasco County main page for press releases at www.pascocountyfl.net.
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:

If anyone one here is from Pasco County here is some information for you below. Apparently this blog is just crazy and can't seem to decipher news reports but anyways for those experiencing this and need help then here you are.

Pasco County sand bag locations

Southwest Pasco County is one of the most flood-prone areas in the region, and the county is offering sand bags in the following locations:
Fire Station #17, 2951 Seven Springs Blvd., New Port Richey
West Pasco Government Center, 7536 State Street, New Port Richey
J.W. Mitchell Park, 4025 Little Rd., New Port Richey
Across from the Fleet Maintenance Building, 6420 Pine Hill Road, New Port Richey.
Pasco officials are urging residents to visit the county's Emergency Management web page and monitor Pasco County main page for press releases at www.pascocountyfl.net.


I can decipher most things, thus my question that I posed to you
Quoting 328. K8eCane:



Not referring to you.
Today's ESPI is @ 3.29. AEI is @ 3.7 sigma. Staggering numbers and means the atmosphere is responding strongly to El-Nino infact responding at very strong levels.
Quoting 328. K8eCane:

Thank you Scott! Always good to be prepared. As you said earlier, the grounds are already saturated. If you're right, another 8"-10" of constipation could be disastrous. What would you predict the rainfall to be in the Orlando area?
rainfall of about an inch can be expected the next 48 hours across most of central florida with more near the panhandle. I don't think there will be any state of emergency issued today lol.



majority of precipitation is forming near Ft. Myers and over the open ocean, well south of tampa.

we have 94L

AL, 94, 2015072912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 209W, 20, 1010, LO
334. MahFL
Quoting 321. weathermanwannabe:

... but it has done a nice job so far clearing out some room below the SAL...>





I don't think it cleared out the SAL, the SAL was moving away as it came off Africa. Tropical waves can move along with SAL and still develop, it's when they run into SAL they get destroyed.
94L is just a little seedling of what's to come in a few weeks. might get one decent storm even in an el nino year
Quoting 331. Llamaluvr:

Thank you Scott! Always good to be prepared. As you said earlier, the grounds are already saturated. If you're right, another 8"-10" of constipation could be disastrous. What would you predict the rainfall to be in the Orlando area?


Probably half of what the west coast gets maybe 4" to 5" the next several days.
Quoting 333. Tazmanian:

we have 94L

AL, 94, 2015072912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 209W, 20, 1010, LO


Wow. Wasn't expecting that. 94L has lots of obstacles to overcome though.
91E is vary closed if not all ready a TD or about too be come a TD at any time



Quoting 334. MahFL:



I don't think it cleared out the SAL, the SAL was moving away as it came off Africa. Tropical waves can move along with SAL and still develop, it's when they run into SAL they get destroyed.


Agreed.
Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



Wow. Wasn't expecting that. 94L has lots of obstacles to overcome though.



we all so have 91P but isnt there season over right now? seem a little late in there season
new c.v. system? best chance this yr so far. water vapor shows marginally favorable conditions
Quoting 336. StormTrackerScott:



Probably half of what the west coast gets maybe 4" to 5" the next several days.
Thanks!
343. MahFL
Quoting 322. StormTrackerScott:



Your serious right as its on National News with one area with 300 homes surrounded by water. Localized you say?


From Tampa NWS :
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.

It is NOT major flooding. End of argument.
Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



Wow. Wasn't expecting that. 94L has lots of obstacles to overcome though.
not important. pretty healthy wave train this year. once conditions get more favorable by the peak, we should squeeze out a storm or 2 from the MDR. healthy wave train will do that
The bigger picture on 91E; now we have to see of there is any chance of a significant threat to Hawaii downstream (big system currently):

Quoting 343. MahFL:



From Tampa NWS :
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.

It is NOT major flooding. End of argument.


Exaggeration is the name of his game :) But if one simply looks at the official wording from the credible sources you can find whats really happening. Seems as though there are some areas with bad drainage that will naturally be subjected to flooding but major flooding and states of emergency is a bit too extreme for a few inches of rain.
Quoting 343. MahFL:



From Tampa NWS :
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.

It is NOT major flooding. End of argument.


I was on CNN's website and I can't find anything about the flooding. It must be buried pretty deep. This morning on local Fox news the weather was the 3rd story. Fox said that flooding is occurring in the town of Elfers and about 40 homes and businesses we affected. It was worse in 2012 with Debby. Sucks for them and the rains over the past week have been impressive but this isn't a historic event for Florida.
94L



Quoting 306. ColdInFL:

Wow: Link to idiot removed for the sake of sanity


Steve "shamelessly using last name of famous scientist in a lame attempt to give myself credibility" Goddard is a con man with math skills that would make a third grader shake their head in pity and the science understanding of a drunk monkey on a tilt-a-whirl. His fictions and outright lies have been debunked so many times by so many people (even by grade school kids) that he could say the sky is blue and no one but the crazy denial nutters would believe him.

All hyperbole aside, Goddard has demonstrated on multiple occasions that he lacks even the most basic understanding of physics and chemistry. Instead of developing a physical model to demonstrate his magical claims, he uses broken math and statistical nonsense to create bad/misleading graphs.

Laws of thermodynamics? Pssh. Stefan–Boltzmann law? What garbage is that? Spectroscopy? Who needs that? Conservation of energy? Who made that up? In Goddard's world, imaginary physics is the best physics and goes hand in hand with his imaginary math.
The Saharan Desert is a very young desert in terms of geologic time periods, approximately 14,500 years ld. There are works of at there that paint a lush environment with crocidiles, lush vegetation, laikes/ponds. Actually the Namib desert is actually the oldest desert in World, dominated by upwelling and a stable inversion climate. My point things changed rapidly enough to make the Sahara the largest desert in the World and the BANE OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT. THE SAL IS KILLING US TC LOVERS!!!
Quoting 326. K8eCane:

And BTW as far as the issue of climate change goes, of course the climate is changing. Thats a no brainer. But I am a DOUBTER as to some of what we are fed about it. Thats why im not a denialist, Im a doubter


Unless someone can actually back up their doubt with something more than ideology and ignorance, then they're a denier. And that's not just with climate science, but any science. A doubter, when presented with evidence, will change their position. A denier will not, no matter how much evidence is presented.

There is A LOT of scientific evidence in regards to climate science. I'm quite sure that any doubts you may have can be easily addressed with a couple of google searches, but if there is something specific on your mind I'm sure the people here can help you find your way. :)
Quoting 358. Grothar:




Good morning Gro,
What are your thoughts on 94L? I am surprised with the amount of dryness in the upper levels. What does NHC see in it?
Forecast for Macon, Georgia today: 95 degrees with heat index of 105 to 108.

Hey Grothar, good morning, check your WU Mail.
Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



Wow. Wasn't expecting that. 94L has lots of obstacles to overcome though.

Yep. Shear isn't terrible throughout the period, a moderate 10 to 15 knots, but sea surface temperatures will be decreasing as it approaches the central Atlantic, and dry air will become a huge issue by day 4 as mid-level relative humidity values fall below 50%. It's currently under a very strong convectively-suppressed kelvin wave, although an equally impressive convectively-coupled kelvin wave should be approaching from the west over the coming days.

Maybe a 30% chance of development if I'm being generous.
Quoting 360. rmbjoe1954:



Good morning Gro,
What are your thoughts on 94L? I am surprised with the amount of dryness in the upper levels. What does NHC see in it?


I don't believe a definitive study of how SAL affects tropical systems. We all know they do, to a degree, because we have all witnessed it. Just because an image of large, red maps show the SAL, it depends on which level of dry air is actually in place. This pouch was quite impressive when it was over Africa. For the NHC to give it invest status this early, I would say it is something to watch. Conditions are only mildly favorable for any development, and there is considerable dry air in place. I think for the time being, we finally have an Atlantic system to watch.

Invest 94L looking good this morning!
Quoting 362. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yep. Shear isn't terrible throughout the period, a moderate 10 to 15 knots, but sea surface temperatures will be decreasing as it approaches the central Atlantic, and dry air will become a huge issue by day 4 as mid-level relative humidity values fall below 50%. It's currently under a very strong convectively-suppressed kelvin wave, although an equally impressive convectively-coupled kelvin wave should be approaching from the west over the coming days.

Maybe a 30% chance of development if I'm being generous.


At the risk of sounding dumb, What is a Kelvin wave and how are they convectively coupled or suppressed?
Not too bad for just coming off the coast


Quoting 361. RTLSNK:

Forecast for Macon, Georgia today: 95 degrees with heat index of 105 to 108.

Hey Grothar, good morning, check your WU Mail.


Morna, Snake. We finally have something to watch.
Quoting 354. Xyrus2000:



Unless someone can actually back up their doubt with something more than ideology and ignorance, then they're a denier. And that's not just with climate science, but any science. A doubter, when presented with evidence, will change their position. A denier will not, no matter how much evidence is presented.

There is A LOT of scientific evidence in regards to climate science. I'm quite sure that any doubts you may have can be easily addressed with a couple of google searches, but if there is something specific on your mind I'm sure the people here can help you find your way. :)


I would like to respectfully disagree. There are many sources of energy gain or loss that have not been fully integrated into the very complex programs analyzing Global Warming. As a physicist, I have looked at many of the articles and have noted that there are gaps. That Global Warming is real cannot be doubted. The sources of the warming are still too complex for us to be absolutely sure, with our relatively short data history, to be absolutely sure of the percentages which each factor contributes.
The BAMS is over zealous with this one!

NOAAs "corrected" looks even better


Quoting 354. Xyrus2000:



Unless someone can actually back up their doubt with something more than ideology and ignorance, then they're a denier. And that's not just with climate science, but any science. A doubter, when presented with evidence, will change their position. A denier will not, no matter how much evidence is presented.

There is A LOT of scientific evidence in regards to climate science. I'm quite sure that any doubts you may have can be easily addressed with a couple of google searches, but if there is something specific on your mind I'm sure the people here can help you find your way. :)

Thanks for the info but you have said nothing that changes my stance, although Im sure you are very intelligent.
Good Morning all..

Nice view of 94L and Africa..

94L will probably not develop into a tropical storm but it is a good "test" wave to get an idea of potential track set-up (ridging wise) for the peak period waves and in terms of trade-wind speeds..............Currently moving at 15 knots which is about right in terms of a favorable speed for stacking up for subsequent waves.
It is hard to see the I. It is between 10N and 15N and a little to the west.

375. vis0
Original title:: Could it be nahhhhhh or...(-TropwxFornation, )
aniGif::
image host
Quoting 297. Xyrus2000:



It does get hot to be sure, but the kicker is the humidity. It's basically a swamp and there isn't a whole lot of wind in the summer unless a front moves through. Average temps in the upper 80's in July, with an average relative humidity around 60-70%. Moist.




Here in DC though we do get fronts a few times in July and August and significant drying behind them. We get about 35 days above 90F in an average year. The kicker is you can grow most warm season crops through summer here in DC.

The 3F difference between DC and TLH summer average temperatures made a huge difference. TLH gets very few breaks most summers, just steady heat on and on and on. Tomatoes and corn decline in these conditions and I couldn't get them after July.. new plantings grew weakly in August but did not produce. Peppers, eggplant, watermelons, sweetpotatoes and cantaloupes did fine all summer although cantaloupes also failed in August on because of root knot nematodes.. that wasn't a temperature problem. Squash, tomatoes, corn and beans pretty much failed to thrive in August.

Lima beans were a striking contrast. They like steady warmth but have a heat limit and produced very little in TLH. They were reliable for me when I lived in suburban DC metro most years from 1972-2009, then in the extreme warm summers of 2010-2012 they failed in DC also with the same problem.. pod set failure.

2014 was a normal to cool summer and a great bean year. (The kids like beans).
Invest 94L
06z GFS Ensembles..







Quoting 354. Xyrus2000:



Unless someone can actually back up their doubt with something more than ideology and ignorance, then they're a denier. And that's not just with climate science, but any science. A doubter, when presented with evidence, will change their position. A denier will not, no matter how much evidence is presented.

There is A LOT of scientific evidence in regards to climate science. I'm quite sure that any doubts you may have can be easily addressed with a couple of google searches, but if there is something specific on your mind I'm sure the people here can help you find your way. :)


The Greenland ice shelf is melting faster than predicted. Would someone that doubted the conservative predictions of this ice melt be a denier? Absolutely not. Doubters and deniers are not the same. Doubters are questioners that are seekers. They believe that more information may be needed to be accurate. One should never question a doubters search for the truth. Many times, deniers are folks that make decisions without a solid basis for their decsion.
Wednesday 07/29
90° | 66°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
20% / 0.01 in
Thursday 07/30
89° | 66°
Chance of Rain
Chance of Rain
30% / 0.06 in
Friday 07/31
87° | 64°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
20% / 0 in
Saturday 08/01
87° | 64°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
10% / 0 in
Sunday 08/02
88° | 64°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Monday 08/03
90° | 66°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Tuesday 08/04
91° | 65°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Wednesday 08/05
89° | 63°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Thursday 08/06
87° | 61°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
0% / 0 in
Friday 08/07
85° | 60°
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Check out our August lows in inland Orange County CA. Almost no AC so far this year, just the whole house fan which I highly recommend. It one of those things that you wonder how you lived without once you install it. Drops the attic and house temp to 68 by morning and the house stays relatively cool all day with the blinds and windows closed. Previously I used the poor man's AC, i.e., box fan in the attic access hatch. :)
RAMMB floater images; getting ready to pass below the Cape Verde islands today. We often see some of these waves fizzle once they get out past the CV Islands...................Friday or Saturday should give us a better idea of what happens to this wave. It does not have much moisture support in the ITCZ so it will really have to bump up convection over the next 5 days to stand a chance at further development IMHO:






Quoting 369. FrostyNaples:

The BAMS is over zealous with this one!


Looks like it is going to go west into the Caribbean regardless of development or not. Hopefully, it will bring some rain for the islands that need it.
We are pretty much at the start of the CV season. With El Niño in place, it will be interesting to see how 94l responds. Could give us an indication of whats ahead.
Quoting 350. Xyrus2000:



In Goddard's world, imaginary physics is the best physics and goes hand in hand with his imaginary math.

Will continue to use complex numbers including the imaginary unit to calculate on waves with, though :)
Quoting 385. Bucsboltsfan:

We are pretty much at the start of the CV season. With El Niño in place, it will be interesting to see how 94l responds. Could give us an indication of whats ahead.
Basically anywhere from late July to the middle of August is the start of Cape Verde, but Nature can start it anytime it wants, Chantal formed in early July.
What effects will this strong El Nino have on the rest of the world's weather?
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

94L will probably not develop into a tropical storm but it is a good "test" wave to get an idea of potential track set-up (ridging wise) for the peak period waves and in terms of trade-wind speeds..............Currently moving at 15 knots which is about right in terms of a favorable speed for stacking up for subsequent waves.
It looks like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement of the Bermuda High building back in over Florida next week as we try to return to a more typical summer time pattern here with a southeast wind flow. Now that I said that I probably jinxed us and we'll remain in the troughiness.
Quoting 368. JustDucky251:



I would like to respectfully disagree. There are many sources of energy gain or loss that have not been fully integrated into the very complex programs analyzing Global Warming. As a physicist, I have looked at many of the articles and have noted that there are gaps. That Global Warming is real cannot be doubted. The sources of the warming are still too complex for us to be absolutely sure, with our relatively short data history, to be absolutely sure of the percentages which each factor contributes.
To which of Xyrus's points are you disagreeing? That those who doubt science because of their own lack of knowledge and understanding are deniers? That doubters--aka skeptics--can be convinced by evidence, but that deniers won't be? That there is a lot of scientific evidence in regards to climate science? That Google research can address most of the doubts a person might have? Or that people here in this forum can help?

At any rate, I'd be curious to hear about any of the "many" energy input/output sources climate scientists haven't taken into consideration. That is, what are the "gaps" of which you speak? Also, while I agree that we're not yet completely sure of the precise percentages each factor contributes to warming, I'm not sure how that correlates with Xyrus' comment.
Who else thinks that the system racing well east of Nova Scotia is being totally ignored? Is that the one models were picking up on a ways back?
Quoting 390. Neapolitan:

To which of Xyrus's points are you disagreeing? That those who doubt science because of their own lack of knowledge and understanding are deniers? That doubters--aka skeptics--can be convinced by evidence, but that deniers won't be? That there is a lot of scientific evidence in regards to climate science? That Google research can address most of the doubts a person might have? Or that people here in this forum can help?

At any rate, I'd be curious to hear about any of the "many" energy input/output sources climate scientists haven't taken into consideration. That is, what are the "gaps" of which you speak? Also, while I agree that we're not yet completely sure of the precise percentages each factor contributes to warming, I'm not sure how that correlates with Xyrus' comment.


I apologize for not being able to give a thorough answer at this time because I am in the middle of an exhibit move. I will, however, work up a proper response and would be glad to discuss the issue with you on a civil basis when I have time. It is a fascinating subject and worthy of discussion, but unfortunately not for the next few weeks. I like to have time when I am discussing interesting topics.
Quoting 390. Neapolitan:

To which of Xyrus's points are you disagreeing? That those who doubt science because of their own lack of knowledge and understanding are deniers? That doubters--aka skeptics--can be convinced by evidence, but that deniers won't be? That there is a lot of scientific evidence in regards to climate science? That Google research can address most of the doubts a person might have? Or that people here in this forum can help?

At any rate, I'd be curious to hear about any of the "many" energy input/output sources climate scientists haven't taken into consideration. That is, what are the "gaps" of which you speak? Also, while I agree that we're not yet completely sure of the precise percentages each factor contributes to warming, I'm not sure how that correlates with Xyrus'






You come across as condescending in a big way, to which i immediately shut down to anything you have to say. If you were really interested in educating and not looking like a member of mensa to everyone else, you wouldnt do that.
While you might consider yourself highly educated in climate science, you have much much much to learn about human nature
Just to clarify.

doubt
to be uncertain about; consider questionable or unlikely; hesitate to believe.
2.
to distrust.
3.
Archaic. to fear; be apprehensive about.
verb (used without object)
4.
to be uncertain about something; be undecided in opinion or belief.
noun
5.
a feeling of uncertainty about the truth, reality, or nature of something.
6.
distrust.
7.
a state of affairs such as to occasion uncertainty.
8.
Obsolete. fear; dread.
Idioms
9.
beyond the shadow of a doubt, with certainty; definitely.
Also, beyond a doubt, beyond doubt.
10.
in doubt, in a state of uncertainty or suspense:
His appointment to the position is still in doubt.
11.
no doubt,
probably.
certainly:
There is no doubt an element of truth in what you say.
12.
without doubt, unquestionably; certainly.

denial
noun
1.
an assertion that something said, believed, alleged, etc., is false:
Despite his denials, we knew he had taken the purse. The politician issued a denial of his opponent's charges.
2.
refusal to believe a doctrine, theory, or the like.
3.
disbelief in the existence or reality of a thing.
4.
the refusal to satisfy a claim, request, desire, etc., or the refusal of a person making it.
5.
refusal to recognize or acknowledge; a disowning or disavowal:
the traitor's denial of his country; Peter's denial of Christ.
6.
Law. refusal to acknowledge the validity of a claim, suit, or the like; a plea that denies allegations of fact in an adversary's plea:
Although she sued for libel, he entered a general denial.
7.
sacrifice of one's own wants or needs; self-denial.

doubting is being unsure whether even if you have done the research, maybe you don't have the clarity just yet or claim something 100% truth yet, but overtime will definitely yield a result. Ever heard the saying giving the benefit of the doubt?

denialism is a form of willful ignorance, you deny something is happening when in reality it is happening, basically you have a problem, but you choose not to believe it. For example alcoholics refuse to believe they are alcoholics, but you can quite clearly see they drink everyday or have an eye-opener and it impacts their judgement. Something along those lines.
ISS will be going over Invest 94L in a couple hours.
Quoting 379. MrNatural:



The Greenland ice shelf is melting faster than predicted. Would someone that doubted the conservative predictions of this ice melt be a denier? Absolutely not. Doubters and deniers are not the same. Doubters are questioners that are seekers. They believe that more information may be needed to be accurate. One should never question a doubters search for the truth. Many times, deniers are folks that make decisions without a solid basis for their decsion.
Don't get tangled up the words. If the person doubted the conservative estimates for some valid reason (not just a blatant statement that it can't happen!) AND was willing to change their opinion based on the facts on the ground, then that person is a doubter not a denier, just as Xyrus and you both said. The test in distinguishing deniers from doubters is that deniers rarely (if ever) will answer the question: what would it take for you to accept that climate change is happening, that humans are responsible, that the results will be bad? Go ahead, try the experiment, ask someone who says they are just a doubter. The answer will define them.
by declaring 94 an invest no doubt nhc. think there is a decent shot at 94 turning into a name. looking out there 94 is the only thing out there. they like that. see what happens
399. MahFL
Quoting 368. JustDucky251:



... That Global Warming is real cannot be doubted...


Many still do though, especially Republican politicians in the USA.
Small burst of convection.
Quoting 389. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It looks like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement of the Bermuda High building back in over Florida next week as we try to return to a more typical summer time pattern here with a southeast wind flow. Now that I said that I probably jinxed us and we'll remain in the troughiness.


It's going to be a "troffy" season this year with the El Nino and lower frontal trajectories so it will boil down to timing, as usual, if any CV storms actually develop into hurricanes on the way towards Conus. This issue is whether we will have any long-track storms this year and that is s big unknown.
402. MahFL
Quoting 396. Climate175:

ISS will be going over Invest 94L in a couple hours.


More like 6 hours, and it will be dark by then over 94L.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 394. K8eCane:





You come across as condescending in a big way, to which i immediately shut down to anything you have to say. If you were really interested in educating and not looking like a member of mensa to everyone else, you wouldnt do that.
While you might consider yourself highly educated in climate science, you have much much much to learn about human nature

Before you chastise, check out the arrogance of stupidity, formally known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

And please teach yourself something else. It is the total distinction between arrogance and possessing knowledge.

This ain't 'humor': Many in nation tired of explaining things to idiots.

We have nothing to learn about 'human nature'. We seen absolutely all the shite of it during the climate change 'debate'. The 'human nature' that you seem to mean needs to be kicked and whipped - some sense into it. Al Gore's enlightening ways and movie did not work, there's that disgusting 'human nature' for you.

(edited DK link to point to English text)
Quoting 399. MahFL:



Many still do though, especially Republican politicians in the USA.



I have NO doubt that its real. I have doubts about the research until i do further investigation into the subject. I paid it no attention until it caught my attention on the blog and since then, Ive educated myself somewhat. If that makes me a denier, then I guess Im a denier. But I know Im a doubter, and thats really all that matters. I despise condescention though, probly something from childhood. As far as Im concerned they know nothing and thats a fact.
Upper level low of doom headed straight for my island chain! Bring me some storms :$


Keep an eye south of Louisiana in the coming days
408. MahFL
Quoting 384. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like it is going to go west into the Caribbean regardless of development or not. Hopefully, it will bring some rain for the islands that need it.


I like the BAMD, it always has any storm coming over my house, well almost everyone...which of course never happens...
409. MahFL
Quoting 407. RitaEvac:

Keep an eye south of Louisiana in the coming days


The Euro has a tropical low in the Big Bend area on Sunday.

Quoting 360. rmbjoe1954:



Good morning Gro,
What are your thoughts on 94L? I am surprised with the amount of dryness in the upper levels. What does NHC see in it?
I think they see clouds and thunderstorms in it.
Quoting 394. K8eCane:





You come across as condescending in a big way, to which i immediately shut down to anything you have to say. If you were really interested in educating and not looking like a member of mensa to everyone else, you wouldnt do that.
While you might consider yourself highly educated in climate science, you have much much much to learn about human nature
I long ago realized that there is literally no way for a person to exhibit knowledge they possess that someone less knowledgeable won't interpret as arrogance or condescension, so I no longer worry about them. But I will let you in on a secret: when I meet people who know more than I do--and that happens a lot--I don't waste time mulling over how mean they are; instead, I seek to level the playing field by learning as much as I can, as quickly as I can so we can become peers. That's an avenue that's open to anyone and everyone, and I truly wish more people would travel that route.

Cheers...
My 2 cents. If we can't police ourselves any post with name calling should be removed. Can't we all just get along?
Quoting 407. RitaEvac:

Keep an eye south of Louisiana in the coming days


I have been.

Quoting 386. cRRKampen:


Will continue to use complex numbers including the imaginary unit to calculate on waves with, though :)

You can kick "i" to the curb, if you like. i=(0,1) and (a,b)(c,d)=(ac-bd,ad+bc)
Quoting 415. ACSeattle:


You can kick "i" to the curb, if you like. i=(0,1) and (a,b)(c,d)=(ac-bd,ad+bc)

True. Though less convenient for back of the envelope calcs on vibrations.
I replaced a sense of wonder by a (somewhat consciously subdued) sense of awe wrt maths and to me the solutions to x^2 + 1 = 0 are real..
Quoting 416. cRRKampen:


True. Though less convenient for back of the envelope calcs on vibrations.
I replaced a sense of wonder by a (somewhat consciously subdued) sense of awe wrt maths and to me the solutions to x^2 + 1 = 0 are real..

Only if you write it as x^2+(1,0)=(0,0)
Quoting 404. cRRKampen:


Before you chastise, check out the arrogance of stupidity, formally known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

And please teach yourself something else. It is the total distinction between arrogance and possessing knowledge.

This ain't 'humor': Many in nation tired of explaining things to idiots.

We have nothing to learn about 'human nature'. We seen absolutely all the shite of it during the climate change 'debate'. The 'human nature' that you seem to mean needs to be kicked and whipped - some sense into it. Al Gore's enlightening ways and movie did not work, there's that disgusting 'human nature' for you.

(edited DK link to point to English text)


Thank you for the D-K link. I found it very interesting. But you contradict its import with your following statement that we have "nothing to learn about human nature"!! Also, adding an 'e' to an expletive does not lessen its vulgarity or rudeness. The "arrogance of stupidity" pales in comparison to the arrogance of thinking you know everything. Your comments are often informative and worthwhile, but may I recommend Dale Carnegie's famous book How to Win Friends and Influence People? I've never used the 'ignore' funtion, but I may have to reconsider that in your case. Reasonable discussion is one thing, your diatribes and angry attitude are in a different category. This is the first comment I've made on WG, so please forgive my unfamiliarity with the format. I've been a lurker here since the days of TampaSpin and StormyW and used to love all the different input but have been very put off in recent years by the increasing bullying by the AGW acolytes on what is supposed to be a tropical weather blog. Thank you to all the many commenters who post without threats and vulgarities.
Quoting 365. JustDucky251:



At the risk of sounding dumb, What is a Kelvin wave and how are they convectively coupled or suppressed?

Nah, that's not a dumb question at all.

Atmospheric kelvin waves are essentially analogous to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that so many people talk about; that is, eastward-propagating atmospheric features that affect rainfall patterns near the equator across the globe. There are two phases to atmospheric kelvin waves, the convectively-coupled phase and the convectively-suppressed phase. As their names would suggest, convectively-coupled kelvin waves are associated with anomalous upper-level divergence (air that pulls apart in the upper levels of the atmosphere) which leads to enhanced rainfall and an increased chance of tropical cyclone development. Convectively-suppressed waves are associated with upper-level convergence (air that collides in the upper levels of the atmosphere), which leads to suppressed rainfall and a lowered chance of tropical cyclone development.

The chart below tracks these kelvin waves. Note the convectively-suppressed kelvin wave passing across the eastern Atlantic, Africa, the Indian Ocean, and the westernmost West Pacific. Note the convectively-coupled kelvin wave pushing across the East Pacific and West Atlantic.

420. FOREX
TWC tropical expert just stated the convective blowup with Erika is meaningless due to the extreme disorganization of the system.