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Quiet in the Atlantic; Two Disturbances for Hawaii to Watch

By: Jeff Masters 3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2015

The tropics have fallen silent the past two days, with no named storms anywhere on the planet. It's not unusual to see a quiet period for tropical cyclones in July, which lies before the climatological peak months of August, September, and October in the Northern Hemisphere (a tropical cyclone is the generic term for all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes/typhoons). The tropical cyclone-free period will likely be short lived, though, as Invest 90E, located in the Eastern Pacific about 1,050 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Monday morning, may develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday. This system is something residents of Hawaii should keep an eye on. Satellite loops show the disturbance has good degree of spin, but heavy thunderstorm activity is limited due to dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The system is on a trajectory that will likely take it within 300 miles of Hawaii this weekend, but the latest SHIPS model forecast shows that late this week 90E will encounter higher wind shear, cooler ocean temperatures, and drier, more stable air. These conditions should cause significant weakening as 90E approaches Hawaii. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 70%, respectively. Hawaii should also watch a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This wave was moving westwards, and should arrive in the vicinity of Hawaii by Tuesday next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 40%, respectively.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two in the Bay of Bengal as seen on Monday afternoon, July 27, 2015, from the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gave top winds of 30 mph to the system, which was nearly stationary. Image credit: NASA.

In the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 2, which is bringing heavy rains to portions of India and Bangladesh along the coast of the Bay of Bengal. Tropical depressions embedded within India's monsoon rarely grow into strong tropical storms, but can be prodigious rain makers. India's monsoon has been 12% below normal in rainfall as of July 22, so the country could use more rainfall--though perhaps not in the concentrated manner a monsoon tropical depression typically delivers, causing dangerous flooding rains. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is not classifying this system as a tropical depression yet.

In the Western Pacific, all looks to be quiet until at least this Saturday, when both the European and GFS models predict a new tropical depression could form about 500 miles east of the Philippines.


Figure 2. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis for 8 am EDT Monday, July 27, 2015, from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows plenty of dry air dominating the tropical Atlantic. Two tropical waves over the Eastern Atlantic were apparent, with no signs of development.

African tropical wave-watching season has begun
In the Atlantic, it's the time of year when we need to start watching the regular procession of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. About 85% of all major hurricanes in the Atlantic get their start as an African tropical wave, so these potential trouble-makers are important to track and monitor. We do have several solid tropical waves with decent spin and moisture that have pushed off the coast of Africa over the past few days, but these tropical waves face a rugged path ahead of them if they want to develop into tropical depressions. Wind shear off the coast of Africa is not prohibitive--a moderate 10 - 20 knots--but a massive area of dry, dusty air--a Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) outbreak common for this time of year--is dominating most of the tropical Atlantic, from the coast of Africa into the Central Caribbean. This dry air will make it difficult for any tropical waves to spin up into tropical depressions over the Eastern Atlantic. If something does manage to form, it will likely be short-lived, if it attempts to move very far west. High wind shear of 20 - 40 knots dominates the Caribbean, and is expected to stay strong for at least the next five days. The ensemble runs of the GFS and European models--done by running the models at lower resolution and varying the initial atmospheric conditions slightly to generate an "ensemble" of twenty potential weather situations (fifty for the European model)--do have a few of their 20 - 50 runs that develop a tropical depression from one of these African tropical waves later this week. However, none of these solutions have the storm that develops making it as far west as the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the operational high-resolution versions of our three top models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--do not show anything developing this week. NHC did not highlight any suspected areas of development over the next five days in their 8 am Monday Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.


Figure 3. Latest radar image out of Tampa, Florida.

Heavy rains in Florida from Gulf of Mexico low
A low pressure system has formed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida, and will drift toward the Florida coast today, bringing 1 - 3" of rain with a few high spots of 3 - 5" over Central Florida over the next few days. The Tampa radar is estimating that this low has already brought 6+ inches of rain to the coast near Tampa, Fort Myers, and Naples. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is keeping this system from developing. While a number of members of the GFS and European ensemble model forecast do show this system developing, none of the operational versions of our reliable models for predicting genesis of tropical cyclones show development over the next five days. We should keep an eye on this system over the next few days, but I am not expecting it to develop.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory will be providing updates by about 4 pm EDT on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday this week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quiet out there in the tropics
I know Alex formed in the Atlantic in 2004, but before doing so, it was a severe thunderstorm over Tampa. I had a six o'clock flight out, and didn't leave until after 11pm. Sitting in the concourse I saw one of the most spectacular lightning shows I've ever seen. At the gate I was offered a view of the radar from the computer. After it reached TS status, it provided some pretty impressive clouds over NE Fla. I have pictures. ( I also have a picture of Katrina's first outer band of clouds from a plane over the VAB in Titusville the day before it struck south Fla )
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Nice update, thanks!



nice update have a great day
Thanks Doc. Been waiting to hear your take on GOM/ Fla system
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thank You Dr. Nice summary on the Gulf area we have been watching this morning. A rain event for sure for parts of the Florida peninsula regardless of the shear issues.


06z NAVGEM
It is still unfavorable where the low is located.
thank you...........

ok guys...you can start taking the plywood down........


Quoting 1009. StormTrackerScott:

Geesh! Already some yards down Welch Rd that are water logged as the water is just not receding from all this heavy rain so far this month.





The WPC is forecasting even more rain over the Tampa Bay area and the nature coast than with the rain event this weekend. However, for now, I'm a bit skeptical. Way the atmosphere is purely tropical with a high freezing level, and very high PW's from 2.25-2.5, making convection very efficient an warm rain process precip loading, rainfall amounts have been pretty tame so far today. Most convection has been pretty weak and or dies as it moves onshore. I do expect that to change, but so far only light rain here.

Again, I expect that to change, but sometimes these weak lows can underachieve with the amount of moisture they have to work with. At the same time, this could also be a serious rain maker if heavy convection begins to train, it's just hard to say. I'm leaning towards another major torrential rain event around here, but not confident of it yet given the fickle nature of these weak lows.
on another note related to tropical develop......the ENSO 3.4 regioin......dropped....yes i said.....dropped....to 1.6 on the latest weekly enso value
And looking east towards Africa, and regardless of the current SAL issues, the wave train is looking healthy:

EUROPE'S HIGHEST RAILWAY STATION - NEW RECORD WARMEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time warmest temperature at the site of Europe's highest railway station, Jungfraujoch, Swizterland, of 13.6 C / 56.5 F was set on July 21, 2015. The elevation of Jungfraujoch railway station is 3454 meters / 11332 feet.
I actually thought that the area in the Central Pacific (below) at around 175W-15N looked "tropically" and promising as a potential W-pac invest but the convection has died down a bit since this morning:





Quoting 14. Jedkins01:




The WPC is forecasting even more rain over the Tampa Bay area and the nature coast than with the rain event this weekend. However, for now, I'm a bit skeptical. Way the atmosphere is purely tropical with a high freezing level, and very high PW's from 2.25-2.5, making convection very efficient an warm rain process precip loading, rainfall amounts have been pretty tame so far today. Most convection has been pretty weak and or dies as it moves onshore. I do expect that to change, but so far only light rain here.

Again, I expect that to change, but sometimes these weak lows can underachieve with the amount of moisture they have to work with. At the same time, this could also be a serious rain maker if heavy convection begins to train, it's just hard to say. I'm leaning towards another major torrential rain event around here, but not confident of it yet given the fickle nature of these weak lows.


Had a brief heavy rain this a.m. Other than that, very light rain. Nothing like the Friday/Saturday rain. Probably got about 4" on Friday and another 1.5-2" on Saturday. Yesterday I had 0.00" Not a drop.

Link

hold on here.........i'm gonna say something positive about keep.......great link there........and if you look...you can see exactly the "spin" that was seen on here this morning just west of tampa...and how it really wasn't.....

whew....that was tough....... :-)
Here at the Treasure Coast people are enjoying the partly cloudy breezy day- if they happen to be outdoors. There is 100% chance of rain for St. Lucie today. I have never seen the rain chance so absolute lol.


i see a nice spin here!
Florida Flood Threat Continues as Gulf Low Forms; Tropical Cyclone Potential Remains Low Published Jul 27 2015 09:10 AM EDT Flash flooding remains a concern for parts of Florida over the next few days as an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico helps to trigger abundant showers and thunderstorms.
The low pressure in the Gulf seems to be moving slow. Why isn't this an Invest?
Quoting 25. TampaTom62:

The low pressure in the Gulf seems to be moving slow. Why isn't this an Invest?


Because it's being sheared to death and inbound towards the coast at some point as noted by Dr. Masters:



i see the low next to FL on here



something in my backyard this morning
Will also note, FWTIW, that air pressures are currently actually rising at Cedar Key and to the West of Tampa with minimal gusts:


Cedar Key:

Station CDRF1
NDBC
Location:
 29.136N 83.029W
Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 16:00:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 8.0 kt gusting to 8.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 74.5 F


West of Tampa:

Station 42036
NDBC
Location:
 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2015 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (360°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 4 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (48°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and rising
Air Temperature: 83.1 F
Dew Point: 77.7 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F
so the website was having issues this morning...it said i had a message but nothing was there then it gave an error stating to tell web support that site was not available.
Quoting 20. BobinTampa:



Had a brief heavy rain this a.m. Other than that, very light rain. Nothing like the Friday/Saturday rain. Probably got about 4" on Friday and another 1.5-2" on Saturday. Yesterday I had 0.00" Not a drop.
nothing much in riverview today either. just a light rain. seems like so far its still out in the gulf but whatever its predicted to do, i wish it would hurry up and do it and exit
Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano is an active submarine volcano 8 km off the north coast of Grenada, Caribbean. Deep rumbling noises have sometimes been heard onshore during eruptions. Explosive eruptions of Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano have broken the sea surface only three times historically in 1939, 1974 and 1988. An underwater survey of the volcano in 2003 found a second vent 3 km from the volcano.

2015 Unrest
A swarm of earthquakes began at Kick 'em Jenny Submarine volcano, Grenada on Thursday, July 23rd from 1:25am to 3:00am local time. Divers observed degassing off the west coast of Grenada in the Moliniere Sculpture Park area. On 23rd July 2015 the alert status was raised to ORANGE.
Been raining here fairly slow and steady. Which is nice as it keeps it cool out.

H2018, what type of animal is in the grill?
34. vis0

Quoting 15. ricderr:

on another note related to tropical develop......the ENSO 3.4 regioin......dropped....yes i said.....dropped....to 1.6 on the latest weekly enso value
If anyone wants a
a) good laff

B) read a vis0 weird explanation that AGAIN comes true. (see cmmnt# OOPS i made a mistake i posted the ENSO prediction of it lowering 2 days ago on my ml-d reset page in cmmnt# 128 this is not my zilly blog but ya can watch me bend air in my comments with  "treebreeze" VIDs.)

c) ran out of dandruff shampoo and needs a good reason to scratch their head.


Well the good laff is on my ZILLY pg blog HERE check out previous comments for weird theories for a laff. Even how fungus & aGW might lower human population.
And a new study on the issue of precipitation and storm surge impacts:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/07/some-u -s-coastal-cities-higher-risk-flooding-thought


Occasional combinations of storm surge and heavy rainfall place some major U.S. coastal cities at a higher risk of flooding than previously thought, a new study suggests. Scientists often estimate the risk of coastal flooding due to storm surge (waters blown on shore by strong winds) separately than that caused by heavy precipitation (runoff from nearby higher elevations that piles up in low areas before it can flow into the sea). But high winds and heavy rain often happen together, say the authors of the first-of-its-kind study, which looked at long-term tidal and precipitation data for the 17 U.S. port cities that have populations exceeding 1 million and then removed the effects of rising sea level. For New York City (which suffered the same flooding during Superstorm Sandy in late October 2012 as the coast in nearby New Jersey, shown), floods due to either a storm surge of 1.15 meters (enough to overtop Manhattan’s seawall) or a 1-day rainfall of 12 centimeters (4.7 inches) occurred, statistically, once every 245 years, the researchers found. But when both high storm surges and heavy rainfall are considered together, floods occur on average once every 105 years, the researchers report online today in Nature Climate Change. 


Similar trends were noted for several other locations the team studied. Not only that, the researchers say, in five of the 17 port cities the link between storm surge and heavy precipitation has grown stronger in recent decades. It’s possible that climate change has strengthened the correlation between storm surge and heavy rainfall, but further analyses will be needed to make that case, the team notes.
Quoting 32. WaterWitch11:

Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano is an active submarine volcano 8 km off the north coast of Grenada, Caribbean. Deep rumbling noises have sometimes been heard onshore during eruptions. Explosive eruptions of Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano have broken the sea surface only three times historically in 1939, 1974 and 1988. An underwater survey of the volcano in 2003 found a second vent 3 km from the volcano.

2015 Unrest
A swarm of earthquakes began at Kick 'em Jenny Submarine volcano, Grenada on Thursday, July 23rd from 1:25am to 3:00am local time. Divers observed degassing off the west coast of Grenada in the Moliniere Sculpture Park area. On 23rd July 2015 the alert status was raised to ORANGE.


I read that underwater Volcanoes are dangerous to ships too. Apparently the degassing they do can cause ships to sink... I thought the danger was in the actual eruption itself. In 1988, 60 souls were lost on a ship that sank because of kick 'em Jenny's off gassing. That second vent 3km would be a good thing to avoid, if I were a ship captain.

I can't imagine the horror of all of a sudden a boat just sinking for no obvious reason.
Well the good laff is on my ZILLY pg blog HERE check out previous comments for weird theories for a laff. Even how fungus & aGW might lower human population.


vis...i neveer understand a thing you're saying..but i love reading your posts and blogs......thanks
Even if development chances are only 10% or so, it seems weird to me that NHC doesn't have this circled.


Quoting 31. intampa:

nothing much in riverview today either. just a light rain. seems like so far its still out in the gulf but whatever its predicted to do, i wish it would hurry up and do it and exit
I'm flooded in my house over here in St Pete. It poured this morning from about 8am-11am and the gutters have backed up into the street.




Models are coming into an agreement of the current developing low off the west coast of Florida moving over Florida and possibly developing it into a tropical cyclone off the southeast coast. Keep an eye on this because with warm waters and maybe even more favorable conditions, it could become even a minimal tropical storm to maybe even a minimum hurricane.
GFS shows no let up in the heavy rain onslaught across FL infact this is beginning to look more El-Nino-isk. The pattern literally just keeps getting re-enforced. Could be a bad set up for those already waterlogged.

Quoting 15. ricderr:

on another note related to tropical develop......the ENSO 3.4 regioin......dropped....yes i said.....dropped....to 1.6 on the latest weekly enso value


And suggestions for me to read so I understand what this means?
44. vis0
Either koritheman and/or a member from the northern Caribbean Islands & me (sorry misplaced those notes that had member names) stated that any tropical development from Africa has to go "under" the radar, and if i read the satellite imagery correct the first 2 TS  did such. As both had portions of tropical waves that traveled from Africa BUT ONLY AT LOW LEVELS from the start. In doing so they avoided the Nino guillotine. Once they turned northward past Jamaica the joined forces with lows that came off troughs that had upper level spin and form TS Ana and Bill (posted animations of both on Dr Masters blogs, THEN).

 i wonder is anyone keeps such records on TS pre-formation from a TW, not when but in a  TW either having a  Low, Mid & Upper level formation when they BEGIN to form a TD/TS, specially when coming off Africa. .

darn i cannot find the lin that had Ana or Bill as low level TWs,  %&^%#! ...here some other zilly animations on Bill.
Not to be confused with BILLs spit-take when being hit in the back by an MCS that led to sar2401 getting a surprise rain image host
or
"Thrilla in ???"**ya pick the town name near by to rhyme with Thrilla.
image host
45. 1344
90E's convection has really increased after 12z. Despite this, GFS hasn't initialized properly, but only calls for slight development. But if the convection falls apart, this won't. Models have backed off somewhat, with 0z ECMWF calling for a weak but long-lived TS (like Genevieve prior to the EI), HWRF calling for only a mid-grade TS after showing a MH 2 runs ago, and the GFDL no longer develops this really. Worth noting though that the TVCE consensus is quite far south, so once can assume the NOGAPS/UKMET keep this south still, which could allow for the storm to be over lower wind shear.
Quick post during lunch..

12z UKMET three runs in a row on an east coast runner starts in 42 hours






Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Even if development chances are only 10% or so, it seems weird to me that NHC doesn't have this circled.




If the convection continues to pick up (a huge blob just off the coast), NHC has the option of tagging it with the 10% or lower to let the people know that tropical development is not expected regardless of the look. Might not make today's PM TWD or Outlook; after that, they will probably wait until tomorrow to see how much convection it is able to sustain over the water before they note it (if at all).

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. E TO NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N83W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N90W TO THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
29N82W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W
. W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN.
ELSEWHERE...A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N85W IS A PART OF A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TX COAST. A CONVECTION FREE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N94W TO 22N93W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING TO THE NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

BOO!!!!
And suggestions for me to read so I understand what this means?


actually...it doesn't mean a darn thing.....i think you might make a point it's not evolving at such a rapid speed as some might have suggested...but again..in the actual scheme of things.....a minor change...neither positive or negative should have any bearing on the long term results....el nino is a long slow process...and there's a lot of 'noise" involved....one shouldn't take the "noice" and describe it as anything else...yet it so often does happen....if i haven't bored you to tears.....you can read this.....Link
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:

GFS shows no let up in the heavy rain onslaught across FL infact this is beginning to look more El-Nino-isk. The pattern literally just keeps getting re-enforced. Could be a bad set up for those already waterlogged.




That's a curious feature at the OR/CA border. For some reason, my work PC won't pull up the models on Levi's site - any chance you can post the one that shows precip?



INVEST 90E looking better this morning!
Quoting 32. WaterWitch11:
Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano is an active submarine volcano 8 km off the north coast of Grenada, Caribbean. Deep rumbling noises have sometimes been heard onshore during eruptions. Explosive eruptions of Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano have broken the sea surface only three times historically in 1939, 1974 and 1988. An underwater survey of the volcano in 2003 found a second vent 3 km from the volcano.

2015 Unrest
A swarm of earthquakes began at Kick 'em Jenny Submarine volcano, Grenada on Thursday, July 23rd from 1:25am to 3:00am local time. Divers observed degassing off the west coast of Grenada in the Moliniere Sculpture Park area. On 23rd July 2015 the alert status was raised to ORANGE.
I don't remember where I read it this morning but activity has decreased so threat has been lowered.
Massive downwelling kelvin wave numero 3 building but cooling of the El nino 1+2 region should be expected ahead of the downwelling kelvin wave.

DUNEDIN, FL on the coast west of Tampa and north of Clearwater -- Good afternoon weather enthusiasts. From a week ago Thursday through last Tuesday, we had 8 inches of rain. Last Wednesday was dry. Thursday through yesterday, Sunday, we received 11 inches of rain. More rain today.
Actually, looking at all the squally weather around Florida the past several days (on the Atlantic side), all I could think about this weekend, and today, is the two young teenagers lost off the coast with their flipped over boat found on Sunday off the coast of Melbourne. The Father of one of them said they were experienced (even going towards the Bahamas to fish) but I know the boat was a 19 foot open fisherman; a larger wave (whether an oceanic wave or squall induced one) can flip such a boat over if you don't see it coming and steer into the wave.


CNN)Perry Cohen and Austin Stephanos have been boating for so long that they're just as comfortable at sea as they are on land.

That's the hope their families and friends say they're holding onto as Coast Guard crews search for the 14-year-olds, who went missing on a fishing trip off the Florida coast Friday.

After nearly two days of searching, the Coast Guard said Sunday that teams had spotted the 19-foot boat in which the teens had been traveling. The capsized vessel was discovered 67 nautical miles off Florida's Ponce de Leon Inlet, the Coast Guard said.

The missing boys haven't been found. But officials say the search is far from over.

Early reports to the Coast Guard indicated the boys had told others they planned to travel to the Bahamas.

Officials and family members say they don't know whether that's what the teens had in mind when they set sail Friday. Now, they say their only concern is bringing them home.

Quoting 20. BobinTampa:



Had a brief heavy rain this a.m. Other than that, very light rain. Nothing like the Friday/Saturday rain. Probably got about 4" on Friday and another 1.5-2" on Saturday. Yesterday I had 0.00" Not a drop.


Most places had pretty good rain totals yesterday, but really ever since the low developed Saturday night, shower and thunderstorm intensity and persistence has been pretty tame. Maybe it's due to a lack of instability, but unless the radar trends change there won't be and widespread 2-4 inch flood watch worthy rains today. I don't blame the forecasters though, surface lows are tricky, sometimes they can enhance heavy rain potential if they have upper support and consistent convergence banding, but they can also cut down on rainfall potential because they often tend to produce too many low and mid level clouds, and often are associated with weak lapse rates.

So far, while some areas have had heavy rain this low isn't producing nearly the amount of organized heavy rain totals as model guidance suggested today despite low level vorticity and an extremely moist, tropical air mass . Model guidance including the HRRR and the global models had persistent heavy rain banding over the Tampa Bay area throughout the day like what occurred on Friday and Saturday.

After great model performance this weekend, except by the GFS which had a dry bias, so far models are handling this low's impacts pretty poorly. It looked like it was going to be a busy day today as there were many bands of heavy rain just offshore earlier today, but most of it collapsed before reaching the coast, which honestly is surprising to me, and I'm not entirely sure why.

Now, given the amount of moisture, and potential for this low to still produce heavy amounts, I still think the flood watch is definitely warranted in case things change in a hurry and they still could. We'll see how this evolves later today into tomorrow, for now, not too big of a deal.
I still don't think we can pass the 1997 El nino, 97 by this time it was way ahead of this year.

Quoting 57. weathermanwannabe:

Actually, looking at all the squally weather around Florida the past several days (on the Atlantic side), all I could think about this weekend, and today, is the two young teenagers lost off the coast with their flipped over boat found on Sunday off the coast of Melbourne. The Father of one of them said they were experienced (even going towards the Bahamas to fish) but I know the boat was a 19 foot open fisherman; a larger wave (whether an oceanic wave or squall induced one) can flip such a boat over if you don't see it coming and steer into the wave.


CNN)Perry Cohen and Austin Stephanos have been boating for so long that they're just as comfortable at sea as they are on land.

That's the hope their families and friends say they're holding onto as Coast Guard crews search for the 14-year-olds, who went missing on a fishing trip off the Florida coast Friday.

After nearly two days of searching, the Coast Guard said Sunday that teams had spotted the 19-foot boat in which the teens had been traveling. The capsized vessel was discovered 67 nautical miles off Florida's Ponce de Leon Inlet, the Coast Guard said.

The missing boys haven't been found. But officials say the search is far from over.

Early reports to the Coast Guard indicated the boys had told others they planned to travel to the Bahamas.

Officials and family members say they don't know whether that's what the teens had in mind when they set sail Friday. Now, they say their only concern is bringing them home.



I hope they are found safe and sound.

Quoting 60. Dakster:



I hope they are found safe and sound.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp /2015/07/26/search-for-florida-teenagers-who-disap peared-on-fishing-trip-continues/

The Navy is also on board per this story from an hour ago:

The Navy has joined the search for two teenage boys who disappeared off the coast of Florida during a fishing trip Friday, adding the USS Carney to a Coast Guard search team that has covered about 29,000 square nautical miles — by air and sea — in the hunt for Austin Stephanos and Perry Cohen.

The search has taken on extra urgency after the Coast Guard located the boat the two boys had been using. The capsized vessel was discovered Sunday about 67 nautical miles off Ponce de Leon Inlet in Volusia County, but there was no sign of Stephanos or Cohen, both 14, in or around the boat, according to the Associated Press.

Quoting 54. Gearsts:

Massive downwelling kelvin wave numero 3 building but cooling of the El nino 1+2 region should be expected ahead of the downwelling kelvin wave.




Yup the Downwelling phase is so strong its causing upwelling near the surface but give it another couple of weeks then this wave will also surface. AEI index is nearing 4 sigma. levels just unheard of and this means the atmosphere is firmly locked into a very Strong Event combine that with the ESPI @ 3.40 crushing 1997 at its peak.
Quoting 60. Dakster:



I hope they are found safe and sound.


There's still hope.There was a man that was lost at sea for 66 days and was found in good condition.
Quoting 62. Gearsts:


looks like the atlantic will at least be an average season but it will be telling if it is just average or above average given how the models project the enso to be at least neutral by the peak of next hurricane season. then we will really know if the positive amo really ended
This image was taken behind the Statue of Liberty. It shows a good picture of the trough over Florida.

Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:



Yup the Downwelling phase is so strong its causing upwelling near the surface but give it another couple of weeks then this wave will also surface. AEI index is nearing 4 sigma. levels just unheard of and this means the atmosphere is firmly locked into a very Strong Event combine that with the ESPI @ 3.40 crushing 1997 at its peak.


Hi Scotty-
Well it seems we've been having good rainfall along the coastal area in the southern parts of East central Florida. St. Lucie is down by 5 inches - don't know if its month to date or year to date.
Quoting 56. hydrus:




Euro has even more rain than that for FL. Looks like another Gulf low this weekend to replace the one we have now. Crazy!
Quoting 67. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scotty-
Well it seems we've been having good rainfall along the coastal area in the southern parts of East central Florida. St. Lucie is down by 5 inches - don't know if its month to date or year to date.


Well don't worry as the rain train is here to stay it appears both the Euro and GFS are now in agreement in showing a prolonged heavy rain event for FL.
The link shows a very good close-up animation of the disturbance in the Gulf.

Link


This image below is not animated. Just in case you stared at it for a long time and it didn't move.

Quoting 64. washingtonian115:

There's still hope.There was a man that was lost at sea for 66 days and was found in good condition.


Absolutely there is hope. I am anticipating they will be found alive and in good condition.

For all we know they may be in the Bahamas on land. Might not have made it to civilization yet to call home too.
Looks like the 12z Euro is catching on to the UKMet idea but not as strong..starts at 72 hours







Quoting 67. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scotty-
Well it seems we've been having good rainfall along the coastal area in the southern parts of East central Florida. St. Lucie is down by 5 inches - don't know if its month to date or year to date.


Are you getting any heavy rains, Joe? We only get about 2 minutes worth and it's over.
12z Navgem as the Euro/UKMET..its almost like the depiction the Euro was showing a couple of days ago and dropped it and now the models are picking it back up again..



12z CMC

Also the 12z CMC/Euro have a low in the GOM but different areas..Later work calls.



Updated CIMMS shear and vort charts (2:00 PM EST):




Surface:

Mid:

Upper:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE E TO
NE WINDS FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W TODAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W BEGINNING AROUND
28/0000 UTC...AND LASTING FOR 12 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 11N24W TO
19N22W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG 24W
IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.
Quoting 66. Grothar:

This image was taken behind the Statue of Liberty. It shows a good picture of the trough over Florida.




Hi Grothar-

Are you getting enough rain yet? My folks say the drought is pretty bad in Coral Springs area but that lately they have been getting rain.
Quoting 72. ncstorm:

Looks like the 12z Euro is catching on to the UKMet idea but not as strong..starts at 72 hours










Euro shows another Gulf storm this weekend into next week. There will be no relief here in FL from all this rain. Infact its about to get much worse for a larger area of FL come tomorrow.

Next Monday
12z run..okay now Im gone..



wind shear to high right now
Notice the line is getting thicker along the SE coast. I hope we get a little relief.



   Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
Quoting 73. Grothar:



Are you getting any heavy rains, Joe? We only get about 2 minutes worth and it's over.


It rained after I mowed Saturday - no rain Sunday- some rain in Fort Pierce today but not at my house east of US 1 in the county. It's hit and miss.
Close-Up of the shear in the Eastern Gulf along with the WV loop:


Quoting 80. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Grothar-

Are you getting enough rain yet? My folks say the drought is pretty bad in Coral Springs area but that lately they have been getting rain.


I am right on the Intracoastal. They have gotten a little inland, but not much here. Still very, very dry.
Quoting 84. Grothar:

Notice the line is getting thicker along the SE coast. I hope we get a little relief.






It looks like from Naples to West palm north is where all the heaviest rains will be focused the next 10 days. Extreme differences from SE FL to here and their about to get even more extreme.
Quoting 88. Grothar:



I am right on the Intracoastal. They have gotten a little inland, but not much here. Still very, very dry.


I live 2 miles from the Indian River Lagoon and it's been drier than normal along the coast apparently the same as you are experiencing.
Hey guys just got through reading the CPC ENSO weekly report

All Nino regions (Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4) are falling now

Also today's updated Anomaly chart has shown this decrease

And on the sub surface charts show not much has changed and it's not increasing ATM

I will still stick to El Niño peaking near but below 2.0
Current forecast still shows peak at 2.0
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:



It looks like from Naples to West palm north is where all the heaviest rains will be focused the next 10 days. Extreme differences from SE FL to here and their about to get even more extreme.


From the looks of this it seems there is no relief for you Grothar.
Quoting 88. Grothar:



I am right on the Intracoastal. They have gotten a little inland, but not much here. Still very, very dry.


With this I've reached 1596 comments. Was that a good year Gro?
Quoting 93. rmbjoe1954:



With this I've reached 1596 comments. Was that a good year Gro?


I think that was the year one of my ancestors invaded Calais. I wasn't there, though. :)
Quoting 65. wunderweatherman123:

looks like the atlantic will at least be an average season but it will be telling if it is just average or above average given how the models project the enso to be at least neutral by the peak of next hurricane season. then we will really know if the positive amo really ended


Mind it be like the 2005 type event
Remember the year before was an El Niño year
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:



It looks like from Naples to West palm north is where all the heaviest rains will be focused the next 10 days. Extreme differences from SE FL to here and their about to get even more extreme.


Well, do something. The next time you post a precipitation model, move the 7.5 inches of rain down southeast!!
Cyclone soon?


Quoting 95. wunderkidcayman:



Mind it be like the 2005 type event
Remember the year before was an El Niño year
2010.1995.1998 and 2005
Quoting 96. Grothar:



Well, do something. The next time you post a precipitation model, move the 7.5 inches of rain down southeast!!


Gro I am working on it. Never seen SE FL so Dry while SW FL is getting extreme rain in some cases 8" a day! Unreal the differences across S FL from extreme rains to extreme dryness.
Quoting 91. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys just got through reading the CPC ENSO weekly report

All Nino regions (Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4) are falling now

Also today's updated Anomaly chart has shown this decrease

And on the sub surface charts show not much has changed and it's not increasing ATM

I will still stick to El Niño peaking near but below 2.0
Current forecast still shows peak at 2.0
read my post below
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

I still don't think we can pass the 1997 El nino, 97 by this time it was way ahead of this year.



Thanks for that info.
Look at the difference in the SSTs in the 2 charts. The northern latitudes are up to over 5/c warmer than normal, whatever normal used to be.
Meanwhile the north east passage appears to open over the top of Russia today.



Quoting 66. Grothar:

This image was taken behind the Statue of Liberty. It shows a good picture of the trough over Florida.




LOL!!!
If this low off FL can hold on tight a much better environment for development moves in on Wednesday as a upper low cuts off over FL. Also cooler temps aloft are coming to which could help generate some heavier rain totals than what we saw today.
Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:

If this low off FL can hold on tight a much better environment for development moves in on Wednesday as a upper low cuts off over FL. Also cooler temps aloft are coming to which could help generate some heavier rain totals than what we saw today.


Some of the models see the same.
Quoting 106. K8eCane:



Some of the models see the same.


Whether it stays off the West coast of FL or moves NE off East FL as long as it remains close by FL the next several days conditions will actually become favorable and the Euro spins this up off NE FL on Thursday then spins another low up in the Gulf come the weekend. Active pattern underway for sure for FL.
<------ Not in "Hurricane Mode"

Quoting 107. StormTrackerScott:



Whether it stays off the West coast of FL or moves NE off East FL as long as it remains close by FL the next several days conditions will actually become favorable and the Euro spins this up off NE FL on Thursday then spins another low up in the Gulf come the weekend. Active pattern underway for sure for FL.



Models actually have been seeing development for a few days
The rain shield off the west coast has really diminished today. Excellent news for the west coast. Our rains are anything but over but today hasn't been bad and it is good to see them diminish of shore.
Quoting 97. nrtiwlnvragn:

Cyclone soon?




Close, but no cigar. IMO.

Quoting 108. Patrap:

<------ Not in "Hurricane Mode"




No rapid development for Florida?
113. vis0
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:

GFS shows no let up in the heavy rain onslaught across FL infact this is beginning to look more El-Nino-isk. The pattern literally just keeps getting re-enforced. Could be a bad set up for those already waterlogged.


Whats that over N , California... the Pacific sprung a leak???
Quoting 111. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Close, but no cigar. IMO.




Looks a little better in NOAAs solution




BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CENTRAL DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
EAST CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 344 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

THIS INCLUDES FLOOD PRONE ROADS LOCATIONS
MILITARY ROAD AT 36TH ROAD...18TH STREET AT UPTON STREET...17TH
STREET NORTH AT NORTH BUCHANAN ST...SOUTH TROY STREET NEAR LONG
BRANCH...BRADDOCK ROAD AT WEST STREET...AND RHODE ISLAND AVENUE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2ND AND CAPI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
I will believe it when I see it. Haven't seen much anything here in Melbourne.
Quoting 109. K8eCane:




Models actually have been seeing development for a few days
Good to see that there appears to be nobody under any kind of a storm threat at the moment after the hyper activity a while ago in the Pacific.

Here in Spain we are having a continuation of the heat waves, which have now been going on for at least 6 weeks.
43/C today in Murcia and almost all of the south over 40/C

Meanwhile I noticed that going on half o the GOM and some of the surrounding waters are approaching 32/C now so there must be a lot of evaporation going on there.

Link
Quoting 115. wxgeek723:



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CENTRAL DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
EAST CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 344 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

THIS INCLUDES FLOOD PRONE ROADS LOCATIONS
MILITARY ROAD AT 36TH ROAD...18TH STREET AT UPTON STREET...17TH
STREET NORTH AT NORTH BUCHANAN ST...SOUTH TROY STREET NEAR LONG
BRANCH...BRADDOCK ROAD AT WEST STREET...AND RHODE ISLAND AVENUE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2ND AND CAPI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.
I got three close lightning bolts from those storms including two of the three cases where the lightning bolts struck across a clear, blue sky with bright sunshine as the storms moved to my east.
I don't understand how we are supposed to get all the rain in central Florida from this Low. I t doesn't look like much if anything.
Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



Euro shows another Gulf storm this weekend into next week. There will be no relief here in FL from all this rain. Infact its about to get much worse for a larger area of FL come tomorrow.

Next Monday

Quoting 112. Bucsboltsfan:



No rapid development for Florida?
we're entering the inactive era. So get used to it.
Quoting 100. Gearsts:

read my post below


So you agree
Quoting 84. Grothar:

Notice the line is getting thicker along the SE coast. I hope we get a little relief.






It's so strange how we are practically drowning in an equatorial rainforest pattern in the Tampa Bay area, while SE FL which is normally even wetter than this area remains mostly dry. I understand what's the cause, but it's just weird.

BTW, I smell bull crap on the 2nd images we certainly don't have any area wide 6-9 inch deficit in this district, lol. Something is erroneous there.
Quoting 120. HurricaneAndre:

we're entering the inactive era. So get used to it.


Nah don't tell me you actually believe that crap we are still in the active era although it does appear that we have reached the peak and the down hill of the era but we ain't in the inactive era yet mate
Quoting 123. wunderkidcayman:



Nah don't tell me you actually believe that crap we are still in the active era although it does appear that we have reached the peak and the down hill of the era but we ain't in the inactive era yet mate
you sure these last three years been acting crazy. No more warm amo, water Temps in the Atlantic, too much sal, and too much wind shear. So explain that.
another fl. system???? could be the same system making itself at home west coast of fl.
Quoting 120. HurricaneAndre:

we're entering the inactive era. So get used to it.


I completely agree. All the signs ( and many experts are saying it) that we have entered into a long term quieter period much like we saw in the 70's and 80's. To me the key element is the dry subsiding air in the Atlantic MDR. Now, does that mean we won't have a hyperactive year? Absolutely not. The trend is down from the hyperactive period that started in 1995. One more factor is AGW. IMO, the jury is still out and we won't know the real impacts for a couple of decades.
Quoting 125. islander101010:

another fl. system???? could be the same system making itself at home west coast of fl.
it won't amount to much trust me. Let's wait til Mid August for more action ok.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Quoting 126. Bucsboltsfan:



I completely agree. All the signs ( and many experts are saying it) that we have entered into a long term quieter period much like we saw in the 70's and 80's. To me the key element is the dry subsiding air in the Atlantic MDR. Now, does that mean we won't have a hyperactive year? Absolutely not. The trend is down from the hyperactive period that started in 1995. One more factor is AGW. IMO, the jury is still out and we won't know the real impacts for a couple of decades.
so meaning no more major hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



Euro shows another Gulf storm this weekend into next week. There will be no relief here in FL from all this rain. Infact its about to get much worse for a larger area of FL come tomorrow.

Next Monday



Well, that is still pretty far out, there is a lot of time for model guidance to change, but the way things have been the last few years around the world with pressure patterns being stuck, I wouldn't be shocked. I love all this action though.
Quoting 123. wunderkidcayman:



Nah don't tell me you actually believe that crap we are still in the active era although it does appear that we have reached the peak and the down hill of the era but we ain't in the inactive era yet mate
80% chance we are in the inactive era i think.
Quoting 128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
That's where the attention is at. No more Atlantic activity for 40 years now.
Quoting 131. Gearsts:

80% chance we are in the inactive era i think.
me too meaning no one should have to worry about hurricanes anymore in the United States or anywhere.
Whenever I see member use the "cr*p" word as to any meteorological obs or comment,

I chuckle and dismiss it..completely.

It denotes something less than class.






Quoting 133. stormpetrol:


already discussed, no more hurricanes in the United states. We don't have to worry anymore.
Quoting 121. wunderkidcayman:



So you agree
I can't believe it myself but i agree with you on this.
Quoting 135. Patrap:

Whenever I see member use the "cr*p" word as to any meteorological obs or comment,

I chuckle and dismiss it..completely.

It denotes something less than class.







we won't be needing that anymore. No more hurricane season for the United states. Or anywhere.
Quoting 137. Gearsts:

I can't believe it myself but i agree with you o nthis.
believe it, every year, the forecast will look like this 0/0/0.
Quoting 136. HurricaneAndre:

already discussed, no more hurricanes in the United states. We don't have to worry anymore.

As the old saying goes:-
Its probably, "the calm before the storm!"
Or in this case the "Storms."
Quoting 132. HurricaneAndre:

That's where the attention is at. No more Atlantic activity for 40 years now.

Uhh, what? If we are entering an extended period with a negative AMO, and I'm not so sure we are yet, that doesn't mean Atlantic hurricanes will cease to exist. It just means there will be less of them. Camille formed in a negative AMO year. David. Allen. Gilbert. Hugo. Andrew.
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Uhh, what? If we are entering an extended period with a negative AMO, and I'm not so sure we are yet, that doesn't mean Atlantic hurricanes will cease to exist. It just means there will be less of them. Camille formed in a negative AMO year. David. Allen. Gilbert. Hugo. Andrew.
He's been sarcastic?
Quoting 110. Bucsboltsfan:

The rain shield off the west coast has really diminished today. Excellent news for the west coast. Our rains are anything but over but today hasn't been bad and it is good to see them diminish of shore.


Keep in mind though, it will just allow the atmosphere to reload a bit after such a busy weekend. I suspect a lack of instability due to overload of latent heat release from weekend downpours and the lack of the right low level convergence zones to produce training of heavy rain bands saved some areas. But make no mistake, this is virtually a purely tropical environment, and with low pressure at the surface and aloft, all it takes is some minor improvement in thermodynamics of the environment, and low level convergence to produce a major flooding scenario with an environment perfect for heavy rainfall rates.

For example, even though some of us did not get really heavy rains, some areas still did, more than I realized, including some of the hard hit areas of NW Hillsiborough, SW Pasco, and North Pinellas. It might not have seemed like it, but the NWS noted some of these areas saw another 2-3 inches from what looked like ordinary showers.
Even here, I was at work all day, and I would have thought my house only got 0.05-0.10 but somehow we managed to pick up 0.43 here from showers that looked pretty lame from the radar view at work.
Tampa International for example, picked up over in inch in about 10 minutes from a thin band of fast moving heavy showers that didn't look impressive, but yet in reality it was.

Given that the convective rains are very efficient at loading heavy amounts of rain at underestimations from radar, if we could get a convergence zone of convective showers training over the Tampa Bay area where training occurs, easily several inches could fall.
So while the confidence isn't as high as the weekend, the atmosphere is capable of supporting even higher rainfall rates than this weekend over the next couple days, it's just a tough call whether it will materialize or not due to the fickle nature of weak low pressure behavior.
Quoting 143. Patrap:


There just waves. We don't have to worry about those anymore.
Monomania is NEVER sarcasm.

Its monomania.
Quoting 135. Patrap:

Whenever I see member use the "cr*p" word as to any meteorological obs or comment,

I chuckle and dismiss it..completely.

It denotes something less than class.









I'm just using a bit of emotion to look at something I find that isn't a good representation of what's happening. Not sure why I would invoke in you as being less than class for doing so, but I'll not to be so expressive next time, if it's troublesome for bloggers. My goal is keep peace with the community as much as possible.
Quoting 146. HurricaneAndre:

There just waves. We don't have to worry about those anymore.



will you take a chill pill all ready
The Pacific seems to have acquired, TD Eight-E.
Strange name! I've always wondered how they get such signatures?
Could it be. Tropical Depression number 8 East?
CROATIA'S HIGHEST WEATHER STATION - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature at the site of Croatia's highest official weather station, near Zavižan Peak, of 28.3 C / 82.9 F was set on July 22, 2015.
Quoting 150. PlazaRed:

The Pacific seems to have acquired, TD Eight-E.
Strange name! I've always wondered how they get such signatures?



E stans for E PAC this like TD 1 -W stan s for W PAC and TD 1-C stans for C PAC and so on and so on
Quoting 145. Jedkins01:



Keep in mind though, it will just allow the atmosphere to reload a bit after such a busy weekend. I suspect a lack of instability due to overload of latent heat release from weekend downpours and the lack of the right low level convergence zones to produce training of heavy rain bands saved some areas. But make no mistake, this is virtually a purely tropical environment, and with low pressure at the surface and aloft, all it takes is some minor improvement in thermodynamics of the environment, and low level convergence to produce a major flooding scenario with an environment perfect for heavy rainfall rates.

For example, even though some of us did not get really heavy rains, some areas still did, more than I realized, including some of the hard hit areas of NW Hillsiborough, SW Pasco, and North Pinellas. It might not have seemed like it, but the NWS noted some of these areas saw another 2-3 inches from what looked like ordinary showers.
Even here, I was at work all day, and I would have thought my house only got 0.05-0.10 but somehow we managed to pick up 0.43 here from showers that looked pretty lame from the radar view at work.
Tampa International for example, picked up over in inch in about 10 minutes from a thin band of fast moving heavy showers that didn't look impressive, but yet in reality it was.

Given that the convective rains are very efficient at loading heavy amounts of rain at underestimations from radar, if we could get a convergence zone of convective showers training over the Tampa Bay area where training occurs, easily several inches could fall.
So while the confidence isn't as high as the weekend, the atmosphere is capable of supporting even higher rainfall rates than this weekend over the next couple days, it's just a tough call whether it will materialize or not due to the fickle nature of weak low pressure behavior.


I hate it when you bring good sense to the blog:)
Guys will you guys help me get through this season please. Thanks.
Quoting 133. stormpetrol:




Poof!
this part of e cen fl. has been pounded with heavy rainfall past two weeks. down 95 20 miles its been dry. go figure
Quoting 139. HurricaneAndre:

believe it, every year, the forecast will look like this 0/0/0.


You seriously need to chill out
very dangerous Cape Verde season beginning shortly do you have a plan?
Storms headed back into Pinellas county moving northward
Quoting 148. Jedkins01:



I'm just using a bit of emotion to look at something I find that isn't a good representation of what's happening. Not sure why I would invoke in you as being less than class for doing so, but I'll not to be so expressive next time, if it's troublesome for bloggers. My goal is keep peace with the community as much as possible.

It's just a word, and one that isn't even considered a cuss word by most. People need not be so sensitive.
Quoting 154. HurricaneAndre:

Guys will you guys help me get through this season please. Thanks.



no i wont help you
Quoting 158. islander101010:

very dangerous Cape Verde season beginning shortly do you have a plan?


vary unlikey will see that this year try your luck in 2016
Quoting 151. DCSwithunderscores:

CROATIA'S HIGHEST WEATHER STATION - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature at the site of Croatia's highest official weather station, near Zavi%u017Ean Peak, of 28.3 C / 82.9 F was set on July 22, 2015.

Thanks Taz comment 152!

An interesting note about the Croatia highest temps.
They are situated to the east of the north coast of Italy, which itself is surrounded now by very high SSTs. Up to 32/c or about as warm as the GOM and a lot further north.This leads to a lot of heat being transferred to them if the winds are coming from the west!
The whole central Med temps this year are crazy with the heat repeatedly coming up off the Sahara, although we do not seem to be getting any SAR or Calimar dust at all this year in my viable area.

This year is going to see a lot of temp records broken in Europe and its only the end of July for now.

Here's a SST heat map of the Med:-

Link
Guys I'm sorry for all of this. It's just so slow this year. But I'm learning, and I will improve on my behavior. Can you forgive me everyone. It's just been rough this season. El Nino gets to my head sometimes.
Quoting 164. HurricaneAndre:

Guys I'm sorry for all of this. It's just so slow this year. But I'm learning, and I will improve on my behavior. Can you forgive me everyone. It's just been rough this season. El Nino gets to my head sometimes.


Keep calm and carry on.
Quoting 160. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's just a word, and one that isn't even considered a cuss word by most. People need not be so sensitive.


That's a bunch of crap. :) (sarcasm flag)

A few MD's out there BTW along with an enhanced risk area. No love for the Dakota's and the small sliver in extreme northeastern Montana.



Quoting 32. WaterWitch11:

Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano is an active submarine volcano 8 km off the north coast of Grenada, Caribbean. Deep rumbling noises have sometimes been heard onshore during eruptions. Explosive eruptions of Kick-'em-Jenny Volcano have broken the sea surface only three times historically in 1939, 1974 and 1988. An underwater survey of the volcano in 2003 found a second vent 3 km from the volcano.

2015 Unrest
A swarm of earthquakes began at Kick 'em Jenny Submarine volcano, Grenada on Thursday, July 23rd from 1:25am to 3:00am local time. Divers observed degassing off the west coast of Grenada in the Moliniere Sculpture Park area. On 23rd July 2015 the alert status was raised to ORANGE.


Following an hour long eruption signal which started at 01:42am on 23 July 2015 activity continued at an elevated level until 1:30pm. During the period midnight to 4:30pm on 23 July 2015 more than 400 events were recorded. The largest of these was of magnitude 3.3. Seismicity declined from 1:30pm to 5:30pm on 23 July but increased thereafter.

At about 00:02am on Friday 24 July an explosion signal was recorded. This signal lasted for about an hour. T-phase from this event was recorded in Montserrat confirming the nature of the activity. The number of earthquakes declined during Friday with only 89 events recorded up to 4:00pm. Overnight this decline continued and between 4:00pm 24 July to 6:30am 25 July less than 20 earthquakes were detected.

Since 6:00 p.m., on Saturday July 25th, no activity was recorded. On Saturday, July 25th at around 5:50 p.m., a team including a Volcanologist from the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Center (UWI SRC), Grenada’s Acting National Disaster Coordinator, and a camera person, participated in a fly over of the Kick-‘em-Jenny area by helicopter. The volcanologist, Dr. Frederic Dondin, who has conducted extensive research on Kick-‘em-Jenny, concluded, after his observations, that there was absolutely nothing unusual in the area.

The Government of Grenada, based on the advice of the SRC has lowered the alert level to Yellow with immediate effect on Sunday July 26th.
Quoting 158. islander101010:

very dangerous Cape Verde season beginning shortly do you have a plan?


I have the same plan, every year. Every year there is a danger of a Hurricane if you live on the East Coast.

Patrap has been posting Hurlo for years as well.

Get a plan and implement the plan. I would already have a majority of my hurricane stuff ready and the supplies rechecked and rotated out from the previous year.
Forms the Tropical Depression 8-E, the future Guillermo:




Another Weak Storm:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W 30 KT 35 MPH


Quoting 147. Patrap:

Monomania is NEVER sarcasm.

Its monomania.


I agree. I've had arguments with myself over that very subject.
Quoting 163. PlazaRed:


Thanks Taz comment 152!

An interesting note about the Croatia highest temps.
They are situated to the east of the north coast of Italy, which itself is surrounded now by very high SSTs. Up to 32/c or about as warm as the GOM and a lot further north.This leads to a lot of heat being transferred to them if the winds are coming from the west!
The whole central Med temps this year are crazy with the heat repeatedly coming up off the Sahara, although we do not seem to be getting any SAR or Calimar dust at all this year in my viable area.

This year is going to see a lot of temp records brocken in Europe and its only the end of July for now.

Here's a SST heat map of the Med:-

Link



your so welcome
i wounder when will see are next major E PAC hurricane
Getting on and off very heavy downpours right now with very low and dark cumulus shower bases, this activity looks like light to moderate rain on radar but the rainfall rate s about 2-3 inches per hour. This is definitely one of those cases where radar doesn't do the rain justice.
Quoting 172. Tazmanian:

i wounder when will see are next major E PAC hurricane
probably that next AOI.
Quoting 122. Jedkins01:



It's so strange how we are practically drowning in an equatorial rainforest pattern in the Tampa Bay area, while SE FL which is normally even wetter than this area remains mostly dry. I understand what's the cause, but it's just weird.

BTW, I smell bull crap on the 2nd images we certainly don't have any area wide 6-9 inch deficit in this district, lol. Something is erroneous there.


The map does not exactly show a deficit of rainfall. It is based on the Palmer Drought severity Index. I believe his index is based on demand and on land saturation content. It is widely used, but often misunderstood. The map doesn't mean that we would need a particular amount to reach a near normal level of precipitation. I'm surprised, Jed. I thought you would know that.

And don't give me any bull! :)
Quoting 173. Jedkins01:

Getting on and off very heavy downpours right now with very low and dark cumulus shower bases, this activity looks like light to moderate rain on radar but the rainfall rate s about 2-3 inches per hour. This is definitely one of those cases where radar doesn't do the rain justice.


raining here too
A lot of moisture developing near the coast of Georgia.

Good to read all the comments tonight, from my point of view, its just struck midnight here.

I suppose all this hurricane lack/el Nino stuff is a trifle frustrating as nobody knows where its going, except Scott who is missing tonight so far.

From out point of view there is not a lot of difference with Atlantic hurricanes and any other global positioned storms as none of them are going to hit us here, although some of them may affect us over on our side of the Atlantic!

What is astounding is how much and how far things in the metrological world have moved from the normal of just a few years ago.

Now its not who will be hit when and where but who will get some rain and who will get too much, along with all the consequences?

I personally am not at all happy about the state of the remaining Arctic ice, its not so much "global warming," as Ice Reduction which seems to be the next phase of the evolution of the/our weather.

Grother asked me about 4 years ago if, "I had ever been on here in the (season,)"
Well this is the season and its possibly quieter than the "non season,"

I personally don't think it will stay this way!
With that good night, or good evening/day from a very unnaturally warm Europe.
Quoting 172. Tazmanian:

i wounder when will see are next major E PAC hurricane


This is a nice little system.

Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:



Gro I am working on it. Never seen SE FL so Dry while SW FL is getting extreme rain in some cases 8" a day! Unreal the differences across S FL from extreme rains to extreme dryness.
That's true.
When you say you've "never" seen something...it means 10 years or so, with me it means 40 years or so, with Gro it means 400 years or so.

Quoting 168. Dakster:



I have the same plan, every year. Every year there is a danger of a Hurricane if you live on the East Coast.

{snip}
  Good Plan, leave the State, Works for me.... 84.3 here, no rain.... lol
Be nice Taz.
Quoting 161. Tazmanian:




no i wont help you
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Uhh, what? If we are entering an extended period with a negative AMO, and I'm not so sure we are yet, that doesn't mean Atlantic hurricanes will cease to exist. It just means there will be less of them. Camille formed in a negative AMO year. David. Allen. Gilbert. Hugo. Andrew.


Never heard of any of those storms. Could you please post a storm that might be famous so I could understand your point better? TIA.

/s
Tell me about it! What does the NWS in Melbourne see that I don't? it isn't rain. 70% chance of rain today, barely a shower.
Quoting 156. islander101010:

this part of e cen fl. has been pounded with heavy rainfall past two weeks. down 95 20 miles its been dry. go figure
Quoting 175. Grothar:



The map does not exactly show a deficit of rainfall. It is based on the Palmer Drought severity Index. I believe his index is based on demand and on land saturation content. It is widely used, but often misunderstood. The map doesn't mean that we would need a particular amount to reach a near normal level of precipitation. I'm surprised, Jed. I thought you would know that.

And don't give me any bull! :)


Don't worry, I do know how it's used, admittedly deficit probably isn't the best word, since it does refer to a traditional drought index, but you always are good at pointing out language detail. So I'm thankful, lol.

In context of how it's used though, I don't like how they display regions, ours here is skewed by the east coast region, which is my main complaint. The best way to sum it would be ground water deviation from average. BTW, Florida as it is having spongy soil that both gains water and loses it easy, combined with a much more shallow capacity to actually store water, makes that image a bit deceiving. That and the fact that they divide the display into pretty large regions, which means West Central FL would be skewed by east coast FL amounts of rain needed to bring ground water to mean levels.

The NDCC explains it well:


Link

Now I'm not saying it's not useful, I'm just complaining about how it's divided into large regions, i.e. lack of high resolution data display. I'm sure there's a useful reason, I just don't like how it's done. Maybe I shouldn't have used harsh language about such a minor issue, lol.
Quoting 179. Grothar:



This is a nice little system.





nic try but thats TD 8E and that wont be are next major hurricane for the E PAC
Its beginning Tampa get ready! Now the meat of this system will be felt across C FL. This band will be much larger tomorrow.

Quoting 159. Hurricanes101:

Storms headed back into Pinellas county moving northward


This is the meat of this system sliding NE. As it does heavy rains will spread well inland. Some models are showing 4" to 6" between now & Wednesday.

Quoting 185. hurricanewatcher61:

Tell me about it! What does the NWS in Melbourne see that I don't? it isn't rain. 70% chance of rain today, barely a shower.


Flooding starting to occur NW of Orlando. it has rained all by 4 days this month at my location.
Scott, please explain. I don't quite understand how us here in CFL will be getting a lot of rain. The system off the coast of Tampa looks very week at this point. Has hardly any rain according to radar.
Quoting 189. StormTrackerScott:

Its beginning Tampa get ready! Now the meat of this system will be felt across C FL. This band will be much larger tomorrow.


Quoting 158. islander101010:

very dangerous Cape Verde season beginning shortly do you have a plan?
I'm inside ready!!
Quoting 185. hurricanewatcher61:

Tell me about it! What does the NWS in Melbourne see that I don't? it isn't rain. 70% chance of rain today, barely a shower.


My zip was assigned 100% chance of precipitation. We got zilch.
Yes I know, you have been getting a lot of it!
Quoting 192. StormTrackerScott:



Flooding starting to occur NW of Orlando. it has rained all by 4 days this month at my location.
This is going to be a memorable 10 days across C & N FL. Perfect set up for some remarkable rainfall amounts.

Quoting 193. hurricanewatcher61:

Scott, please explain. I don't quite understand how us here in CFL will be getting a lot of rain. The system off the coast of Tampa looks very week at this point. Has hardly any rain according to radar.


A lot of the rain is out of radar range. As the low moves onshore, all of that rain will move this way. Plus heating of the day will allow these other bands fill in
Quoting 193. hurricanewatcher61:

Scott, please explain. I don't quite understand how us here in CFL will be getting a lot of rain. The system off the coast of Tampa looks very week at this point. Has hardly any rain according to radar.


It will fill in tomorrow like it did earlier today except over land and not over the Gulf.
Quoting 137. Gearsts:

I can't believe it myself but i agree with you on this.

I can't believe it myself you actually agree

Quoting 124. HurricaneAndre:

you sure these last three years been acting crazy. No more warm amo, water Temps in the Atlantic, too much sal, and too much wind shear. So explain that.


Hmm I wonder if you have ever heard of such thing as an El Niño

Quoting 129. HurricaneAndre:

so meaning no more major hurricanes in the Atlantic.


That's that is just hogwash
There will be tons more majors in the Atlantic

Quoting 134. HurricaneAndre:

me too meaning no one should have to worry about hurricanes anymore in the United States or anywhere.


Just the opposite mate

Quoting 139. HurricaneAndre:

believe it, every year, the forecast will look like this 0/0/0.


Dude I think you've gone mad you sure your not high as a kite on drugs or something

Quoting 146. HurricaneAndre:

There just waves. We don't have to worry about those anymore.


Dude chill out and get your head cleared

Quoting 144. Gearsts:

He's been sarcastic?


Dude I don't know but something is up with good ole HurricaneAndre

Quoting 149. Tazmanian:




will you take a chill pill all ready


Lol thanks Taz... I can't believe I'm thanking you anyway thanks

Quoting 157. Hurricanes101:



You seriously need to chill out


Agreed

Quoting 154. HurricaneAndre:

Guys will you guys help me get through this season please. Thanks.


Oh poor soul look dude look chill our and relax the real hurricane season action doesn't start till August so it's ok to feel ... a bit ... kinda our out it if you want to call it that during May June and July during the kinda boring part of the season


Anyway guys I am sorry if this post is a bit long I had to head out and I missed a good chunk of data
Please do not flag or make fuss just let me know and I will chop this into smaller post
Let me correct that, East Central Florida.
Quoting 193. hurricanewatcher61:

Scott, please explain. I don't quite understand how us here in CFL will be getting a lot of rain. The system off the coast of Tampa looks very week at this point. Has hardly any rain according to radar.
Looks nothing like what it did the last few days. And Jed, please watch your potty mouth. :)

Got it!
Quoting 200. StormTrackerScott:



It will fill in tomorrow like it did earlier today except over land and not over the Gulf.
Thanks!
Quoting 199. Hurricanes101:



A lot of the rain is out of radar range. As the low moves onshore, all of that rain will move this way. Plus heating of the day will allow these other bands fill in
Quoting 158. islander101010:

very dangerous Cape Verde season beginning shortly do you have a plan?


I am very much ready more ready than maybe I should be
But donkey years ago I was in the Scouts and it taught me one thing "be prepared"
And sorry to use this from my mates in Paras but I'm"Utrinque Paratus" "Ready for Anything"

Btw I think we will get one or two or three good CV storms but a very dangerous one nah maybe just dangerous
You really can tell it's slow when the blog is discussing the proper use of the word crap.
And the whole argument, if there is ONE(mono), was started by a blogger who posts about cleaning up his puppies poop. Oh, 'de irony.
Quoting 207. CosmicEvents:

You really can tell it's slow when the blog is discussing the proper use of the word crap.
And the whole argument, if there is ONE(mono), was started by a blogger who posts about cleaning up his puppies poop. Oh, 'de irony.


Well it will pick up next month and hopefully I expect to hear how strong the storm will get, where it will go, how crap it looks, how the conditions area, why NHC has not gotten up advisories yet, etc etc
Quoting 201. wunderkidcayman:


I can't believe it myself you actually agree



Hmm I wonder if you have ever heard of such thing as an El Niño



That's that is just hogwash
There will be tons more majors in the Atlantic



Just the opposite mate



Dude I think you've gone mad you sure your not high as a kite on drugs or something



Dude chill out and get your head cleared



Dude I don't know but something is up with good ole HurricaneAndre



Lol thanks Taz... I can't believe I'm thanking you anyway thanks



Agreed



Oh poor soul look dude look chill our and relax the real hurricane season action doesn't start till August so it's ok to feel ... a bit ... kinda our out it if you want to call it that during May June and July during the kinda boring part of the season


Anyway guys I am sorry if this post is a bit long I had to head out and I missed a good chunk of data
Please do not flag or make fuss just let me know and I will chop this into smaller post

I absolutely agree WKC. The only season that didn't act correctly was 2012 and 2013. 2012 was forecast to be below average, turned out above norm. 2013 was forecast to be above norm, but turned out to be above norm in terms of total storms, but well below in terms of Hurricanes and MH. 2014 was forecast below norm, and turned out to be below norm in terms of total storms, but normal in terms of Hurricanes andevidentld MH. EVIDENTLY,IMO,THERE'S NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO ASSUME THE POSITIVE AMO PHASE IS OVER. HOWEVER,PPL ARE ENTITLED TO THEIR OWN OPINIONS,AND WE SHOULD RESPECT THEM.
Long-term Miami NWS Disco...

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.
Quoting 196. rmbjoe1954:



My zip was assigned 100% chance of precipitation. We got zilch.


You must have gotten some, C-25 has been open into Taylor Creek since the 23rd.
Quoting 207. CosmicEvents:

You really can tell it's slow when the blog is discussing the proper use of the word crap.
And the whole argument, if there is ONE(mono), was started by a blogger who posts about cleaning up his puppies poop. Oh, 'de irony.


Imagine that...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
The UKMET has been predicting a Tropical Storm to form north of Florida/The Bahamas by this friday/weekend the last couple runs. Will be interesting to see if anything will form.
Not sure that 8E will ever get a name. Center is outrunning its limited convection. It has another day or two over marginally favorable conditions.

Quoting 201. wunderkidcayman:


your welcome
Quoting 215. MAweatherboy1:

Not sure that 8E will ever get a name. Center is outrunning its limited convection. It has another day or two over marginally favorable conditions.





shhhh dont say that the naming of the storms in the E PAC are all ready mess up thanks too TD 4E dont need TD 8E too do the same
Quoting 187. Tazmanian:




nic try but thats TD 8E and that wont be are next major hurricane for the E PAC


I can never get you Taz!!
Quoting 207. CosmicEvents:

You really can tell it's slow when the blog is discussing the proper use of the word crap.
And the whole argument, if there is ONE(mono), was started by a blogger who posts about cleaning up his puppies poop. Oh, 'de irony.
Looks like central Illinois is about to get the doo-doo beat out of it.
:)

(A few couple good storms up in WYo also.)
Quoting 186. Jedkins01:



Don't worry, I do know how it's used, admittedly deficit probably isn't the best word, since it does refer to a traditional drought index, but you always are good at pointing out language detail. So I'm thankful, lol.

In context of how it's used though, I don't like how they display regions, ours here is skewed by the east coast region, which is my main complaint. The best way to sum it would be ground water deviation from average. BTW, Florida as it is having spongy soil that both gains water and loses it easy, combined with a much more shallow capacity to actually store water, makes that image a bit deceiving. That and the fact that they divide the display into pretty large regions, which means West Central FL would be skewed by east coast FL amounts of rain needed to bring ground water to mean levels.

The NDCC explains it well:


Link

Now I'm not saying it's not useful, I'm just complaining about how it's divided into large regions, i.e. lack of high resolution data display. I'm sure there's a useful reason, I just don't like how it's done. Maybe I shouldn't have used harsh language about such a minor issue, lol.


From what little I read, a lot of people took issue with his algorithms. It has been written that there are too many variables to be taken into account i.e., the soil moisture and level of demand. I was thinking of devising my own algorithm, but there's "Matlock" marathon this week. First things first.
band moving through Pinellas county, getting plenty of rain now
Quoting 180. CosmicEvents:

That's true.
When you say you've "never" seen something...it means 10 years or so, with me it means 40 years or so, with Gro it means 400 years or so.


Cos @#$%*$^!!!!! lol
Quoting 218. Grothar:



I can never get you Taz!!


i saw it 1st
Quoting 223. Tazmanian:



i saw it 1st
Who saw it first.

Abraham Levy retweeted Kenny Strawn
Yes a truly impressive downwelling event that will hit South America by late NH Summer @strawn_04
Abraham Levy added,
Kenny Strawn @strawn_04
That's the downwelling KW in progress as observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. A monstrosity to say the least
Quoting 224. CosmicEvents:

Who saw it first.


I think What saw it first, but it may of been I Don't Know.
It looks like the lovely days of sub 70F temps are going away. Now back to the much more typical sunny Seattle summers.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

SHORT TERM...
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRYING AT THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIMITED TO JUST A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS

.LONG TERM...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE NO EXPECTED MARINE PUSHES OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER.
SCHNEIDER
These cells don't look like much, but they pack heck of a lot of water with them, rainfall rates are higher than they look, definitely tropical convection, already just over 1 inch here, although the bands have shifted away from us for now, some places have had 2 inches already:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
743 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FLC057-103-280245-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0087.150727T2343Z-150728T0245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-PINELLAS FL-
743 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 741 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TAMPA...CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...LUTZ...
FEATHER SOUND...EGYPT LAKE-LETO...UNIVERSITY...EAST LAKE...GREATER
NORTHDALE...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...PALM HARBOR...TOWN `N`
COUNTRY...HARBOR BLUFFS...KEYSTONE...LAKE MAGDALENE...CITRUS PARK
AND GREATER CARROLLWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. YOU CAN
ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORTS TO NWSTAMPABAY OR SHARE THEM WITH NWS TAMPA
BAY ON FACEBOOK.

&&

LAT...LON 2806 8278 2808 8283 2808 8277 2813 8278
2818 8269 2817 8241 2807 8241 2797 8257
2797 8265 2800 8263 2804 8268 2794 8272
2791 8266 2784 8282 2790 8285

$$

RAG
Huge kelvin wave:


Quoting 227. Seattleite:

It looks like the lovely days of sub 70F temps are going away. Now back to the much more typical sunny Seattle summers.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

SHORT TERM...
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRYING AT THE LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY...THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIMITED TO JUST A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS

.LONG TERM...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE NO EXPECTED MARINE PUSHES OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER.
SCHNEIDER


I find it interesting that many people only think of Tampa in the dry season, as in they say "where's my sunshine state" when we get heavy rains in the summer. But most people act like Seattle is never sunny as if it doesn't have a drier season that is much sunnier, in the same way that we have a drier season.
231. bwi
That little disturbance the models are thinking about spinning up off Cape Hatteras is predicted by the 12z ECMWF to be a big storm for Ireland and Scotland down the road!
Quoting 230. Jedkins01:



I find it interesting that many people only think of Tampa in the dry season, as in they say "where's my sunshine state" when we get heavy rains in the summer. But most people act like Seattle is never sunny as if it doesn't have a drier season that is much sunnier, in the same way that we have a drier season.


In fairness, Seattle can go for weeks at a time without seeing the sun during the winter months. That doesn't happen in FL summer.
Evening all ... it was interesting to be listening to a talk show today and hear a lady talking about the "African dust" and how it's impacting us here in The Bahamas .... lol ... guess I'm not the only Bahamian looking at the TWD and Wunderground .... lol ...
Quoting 232. TimSoCal:



In fairness, Seattle can go for weeks at a time without seeing the sun during the winter months. That doesn't happen in FL summer.


Oh definitely, and thank God no we aren't as cloudy as Seattle comparing rainy seasons, too many cloudy cold days with light rain is just depressing. The Pacific northwest is a beautiful landscape, but just too many cold cloudy days during the winter for me. I see enough of them as it is in Tallahassee winters, lol.


I like places with a lot of sun but plenty of rain, and mostly warm with a hint of winter, which is exactly where I live. The only thing I don't like is our lack of mountains.
Quoting 202. hurricanewatcher61:

Let me correct that, East Central Florida.

All these precip maps have been way off for East Central Florida. Got 0.22" today, nothing yesterday, 0.79" and 0.40" the two days before that. So 1.41" when predictions of 5+ inches were broadcast. The models have been performing terribly!
Quoting 196. rmbjoe1954:



My zip was assigned 100% chance of precipitation. We got zilch.

Yes,the professionals have been terribly off with their forecasts the past week with this event
Quoting 230. Jedkins01:



I find it interesting that many people only think of Tampa in the dry season, as in they say "where's my sunshine state" when we get heavy rains in the summer. But most people act like Seattle is never sunny as if it doesn't have a drier season that is much sunnier, in the same way that we have a drier season.


It always amuses me as well. Our typical summer afternoon in July/August is a high of 75F with clear blue skies. As a person who has lived all over the contiguous US, I will swear up and down all day long the the Pacific Northwest has the best summer in the country. You still occasionally need a sweatshirt, as evidenced by my attire yesterday watching my friends soccer match in the 62F heavy rain (fleece leggings, jeans, long sleeve under shirt, t-shirt, rain boots, and rain poncho). But as someone who endures our winters, you learn to always keep extra layers around.

Quoting 208. wunderkidcayman:



Well it will pick up next month and hopefully I expect to hear how strong the storm will get, where it will go, how crap it looks, how the conditions area, why NHC has not gotten up advisories yet, etc etc
I'd be happy if we continued to have a quiet season, because it looks like conditions favor [at least currently anyway] storms forming or ramping up in this general area, which experience I'd prefer not to have this year. Realistically, however, I'd say between 15 Aug and 15 Oct we can expect as many as 8 additional systems. Hopefully if any of them blow up into monsters, they are CV storms that recurve over the ATL before reaching 60W ....
In any case the season is still out there to be lived.
Quoting 197. hurricanewatcher61:

Yes I know, you have been getting a lot of it!

Quoting 194. LargoFl:



Cannot trust this map as the forecasts/maps of the past week have been way off and no where near the amount of forecasted precip has fallen. Models have been way off in precip forecasts, at least in East Central Florida....And im really getting tired of STS's overhying of this event. Its his MO, to hype and get attention.
So Elninio is real.  But it will not do what it did before....what will it do?
Quoting 181. PedleyCA:


  Good Plan, leave the State, Works for me.... 84.3 here, no rain.... lol



Unfortunately, I am on my way back for the height of the season...

And EQ's and Volcanoes aren't much better.
Quoting 232. TimSoCal:



In fairness, Seattle can go for weeks at a time without seeing the sun during the winter months. That doesn't happen in FL summer.


You see, here's the thing about the clouds and rain in the winter time. (Dak, see if you agree with this.) It's dark. A lot. Even if it wasn't cloudy, and drizzly, it wouldn't matter because it's dark when you go to work and dark when you go home. The rain is really light, amounting to maybe a quarter inch a day. Also, if it's raining that means it isn't snowing. As a person who is inherently clumsy (impaired proprioception due to EDS), mobility + snow + gravity = fail. So I'm perfectly OK with that. =) I've lived through Florida winters, and while a certain Christmas day beach trip will always be remembered, suffering mosquitoes in January is not, and will never be OK.

On a side note, I have a joke amongst friends here locally to loudly yell "Blue Sky Alert" any time one can actually see blue sky between October and April regardless of where we are.
So anyone planning to change their forecasts. Mine might go up of we see more action next month.
Quoting 243. HurricaneAndre:

So anyone planning to change their forecasts. Mine might go up of we see more action next month.



I'M still going with 11/7/2
I have never in memory seen rain forecasts so far off for New Smyrna Beach which is south of Daytona and north of Canaveral. Luckily I did not change golf plans on Sunday based on predictions or I would have missed playing all weekend for nothing. Today again just clouds, no rain to speak of. Tomorrow it's at 90% but that could change by morning.
Tuesday 07/28 90% / 0.46 in
Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through late morning...then widespread showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent
Quoting 243. HurricaneAndre:

So anyone planning to change their forecasts. Mine might go up of we see more action next month.



Nope. Besides, if you got your forecast into Max's list, yours is locked into stone. No changing allowed halfway through the season.
Quoting 217. Tazmanian:




shhhh dont say that the naming of the storms in the E PAC are all ready mess up thanks too TD 4E dont need TD 8E too do the same


NO STORMS IS PERFECTLY OK!!!! YOU WILL SURVIVE.......
GFS ensembles appear to be picking up on something in the Gulf next week, too early to be concerned of yet, and things will change.
CMC ensembles too.
I wouldn't be surprised if we set at least a daily record here .. The news wx summary reported a high of 94 here this afternoon ... 94 is pretty much an unheard of temp for the Bahamas ... usually sea breezes and the nearness of surrounding water keeps our temps comparatively low. However, today was really, REALLY hot.

On a totally unrelated note, has anyone seen the video of that KML plane trying to land in the Netherlands today? Talk about a reason never to fly again ....
Personally I'd be happy to never see a hurricane again in our area, but we sure need some rain, this is the worse heat I've seen in my 50 years, a nice tropical depression or storm crossing close by could surely provide some much needed relief!
Quoting 239. sanflee76:



Cannot trust this map as the forecasts/maps of the past week have been way off and no where near the amount of forecasted precip has fallen. Models have been way off in precip forecasts, at least in East Central Florida....And im really getting tired of STS's overhying of this event. Its his MO, to hype and get attention.


Very true.

There is a large and long-tracked wedge tornado ongoing south of Tilston, Canada.

Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is a large and long-tracked wedge tornado ongoing south of Tilston, Canada.




Guess the crack in the windshield goes with the territory, lol.
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:

I wouldn't be surprised if we set at least a daily record here .. The news wx summary reported a high of 94 here this afternoon ... 94 is pretty much an unheard of temp for the Bahamas ... usually sea breezes and the nearness of surrounding water keeps our temps comparatively low. However, today was really, REALLY hot.

On a totally unrelated note, has anyone seen the video of that KML plane trying to land in the Netherlands today? Talk about a reason never to fly again ....


It was a ridiculously hot day over here too!

On your note, I had a flight like that once, landing in Gander, Newfoundland. The plane was doing what I called the "wing wave"....I knew that day, that if I ever experienced anything worse, I wouldn't walk away from it. Must say though that air turbulence has NEVER bothered me since that day!

Still no rain this way. Was trying to figure out how to count the number of days without but gave up.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Quoting 220. Grothar:



From what little I read, a lot of people took issue with his algorithms. It has been written that there are too many variables to be taken into account i.e., the soil moisture and level of demand. I was thinking of devising my own algorithm, but there's "Matlock" marathon this week. First things first.


MAAAATLOCK!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago
30-day Caribbean shear anomalies remain about 5 m/s greater than any year since 1979.
Quoting 256. ProgressivePulse:



Guess the crack in the windshield goes with the territory, lol.


...or the province...sorry, couldn't resist....it's a Canadian thing. (Tilston is in Manitoba for those wondering)

-L
Quoting 222. Grothar:



Cos @#$%*$^!!!!! lol


Just no respect!
People on here would have lost their mind 1992 no storm until 8/16/92 but that was Andrew!!
Quoting 235. sanflee76:


All these precip maps have been way off for East Central Florida. Got 0.22" today, nothing yesterday, 0.79" and 0.40" the two days before that. So 1.41" when predictions of 5+ inches were broadcast. The models have been performing terribly!

I agree. We did get a really good rainfall Saturday, around 2.7"(storms moving in from the NNE), then 0.2 yesterday and nothing today. This "wet pattern" has certainly not yielded anything above and beyond a normal, robust wet season pattern here in E. Central FL. This is simply a different way to get our normal rainfall here (which seems to be becoming more and more common these days). I much prefer the traditional meeting of the seebreezes in mid-late afternoon with widespread strong thunderstorm activity over the area for several hours. The precipitation coming from the west/SW can't seem to hold together and it had been that way for weeks now.

This low that is supposed to move across the Peninsula in the next couple days would surely bring a "blob" of nearly continuous rain with it. Is this supposed to even happen now? Are these really high rain chances just because most areas will get at least a passing shower at some point during the morning-evening tomorrow? I know the West Coast has been bombarded with rain and storms on a continuous basis recently. Is that where all of it will stay until the low suddenly crosses over to the Atlantic, then all the rain will develop off the East Coast, leaving us with a few pitiful showers to show for it?
Quoting 257. VirginIslandsVisitor:



It was a ridiculously hot day over here too!

On your note, I had a flight like that once, landing in Gander, Newfoundland. The plane was doing what I called the "wing wave"....I knew that day, that if I ever experienced anything worse, I wouldn't walk away from it. Must say though that air turbulence has NEVER bothered me since that day!

Still no rain this way. Was trying to figure out how to count the number of days without but gave up.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
The heat is MESSING with me ... I'm supposed to be posting photos daily, but if I have to go outside to take them, it's not happening .... what leave my A/C comfort so I can sweat blood and tears??? Not hardly ....
Scott if you are out there what does this super el-nino mean for our weather in the panhandle this winter? I will listen to anyone else if Scott's not on.
How does El Nino affect Florida.

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El Nino may be back: Here's how it could affect Florida's ...
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Apr 24, 2014 - El Nino may be back: Here's how it could affect Florida's weather ... change more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below.
269. vis0
Quoting 101. PlazaRed:


Thanks for that info.
Look at the difference in the SSTs in the 2 charts. The northern latitudes are up to over 5/c warmer than normal, whatever normal used to be.
Meanwhile the north east passage appears to open over the top of Russia today.




One question. Is the difference in extremes maybe not just temperatures but as to hues in that 1997 MAYBE used a lower resolution method so the range from low to high in hues is dramatic while the low to higher hues in 2015 IF more of a higher definition/resolution (more sensors or more precise pickups) which creates a smother range of hues? Also since its a warmer planet the anomalies are not as dramatic for the same temperature today than then...but i could be 99.9% wrong.

i reconfigured the geography to match up maps on my zilly pg cmmnt#31 THERE.
Will it rain again this year in Cayman?
Quoting 268. Patrap:

How does El Nino affect Florida.

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El Nino may be back: Here's how it could affect Florida's ...
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Apr 24, 2014 - El Nino may be back: Here's how it could affect Florida's weather ... change more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below.
Thanks


Alaska’s terrifying wildfire season and what it says about climate change

by Chris Mooney

The Washington Post


FAIRBANKS, Alaska — Hundreds of wildfires are continually whipping across this state this summer, leaving in their wake millions of acres of charred trees and blackened earth.

At the Fairbanks compound of the state’s Division of Forestry recently, workers were busy washing a mountain of soot-covered fire hoses, which stood in piles roughly six feet high and 100 feet long. About 3,500 smokejumpers, hotshot crews, helicopter teams and other workers have traveled to Alaska this year from across the country and Canada. And they have collectively deployed about 830 miles of hose this year to fight fires.

An hour north of the state’s second-biggest city, firefighters were attacking flames stretching across more than 31,000 acres, including an area close to the Trans-Alaska pipeline system, which stretches from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez. And that’s just one of about 300 fires at any given time.


“People don’t fathom how big Alaska is. You can have a 300,000-acre fire, and nobody knows anything about it, because nothing’s been done about it, because of where it is,” says Tim Mowry, spokesman for the Alaska Division of Forestry.

The staggering 2015 Alaska wildfire season may soon be the state’s worst ever, with almost 5 million acres already burned — an area larger than Connecticut. The pace of the burn has moderated in the last week, but scientists say the fires are just the latest indicator of a climatic transformation that is remaking this state — its forests, its coasts, its glaciers, and perhaps most of all, the frozen ground beneath — more than any other in America.

[The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future]

Alaska has already warmed by more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit in the past half-century, much more than the continental United States. The consequences have included an annual loss of 75 billion metric tons of ice from its iconic glaciers — including those covering the slopes of Denali, the highest peak in North America — and the destabilization of permafrost, the frozen ground that underlies 80 percent of the state and whose thaw can undermine buildings, roads and infrastructure.


Also pummeled are the state’s Arctic coastlines, which are facing intense erosion as seas rise and declining sea ice exposes shores and barrier islands to punishing waves. The situation has grown so bad that some native communities, including tiny Kivalina, Alaska, sitting on a barrier island along the Chukchi Sea, may now have to be relocated, given the dangerous loss of land to the sea.

Earlier snowmelt transforms the state further. In 2015, the starting place of the Iditarod sled dog race had to be relocated north, to Fairbanks, because there wasn’t enough snow on the ground in some places.

But arguably the most dramatic change — threatening to transform the state’s 126 million acres of forests and, perhaps, worsen climate change in the process — is occurring with the state’s wildfires.

Alaska’s forests make up 17 percent of the U.S. total, and while they’ve always burned, they may now be entering a major new combustive period. The blazes are so intense and extensive that they could transform an entire ecosystem, even as the fires also hasten the thawing of permafrost — which itself contains vast quantities of ancient carbon, ready to be emitted to the air.

“The more severe the fire, the deeper that it burns through the organic layer, the higher the chance it will go through this complete conversion,” says Ted Schuur, an ecologist at Northern Arizona University who spends summers in Fairbanks and specializes in studying permafrost. “What happens in the summer of 2015 has the potential to change the whole trajectory of [the burned area] for the next 100 years or more.”

The nearly 5 million acres burned in Alaska so far this year dwarfs all burning across all states in the Lower 48. Three of Alaska’s top five wildfire seasons have occurred since the year 2004, with 16 million acres burned between them (2004, 2005 and 2015).

Indeed, the 2015 fire season is a poster child for how strongly climatic factors influence wildfire dangers — it’s one in which most fires have been caused by lightning, rather than people. The whole system was simply ready to burn.


[Scientists say the planet’s weather is becoming more conducive to wildfires]

In May, Alaska experienced its hottest temperatures in 91 years of record-keeping, 7.1 degrees Fahrenheit above average. As a result, seasonal snowmelt was well ahead of schedule, allowing the ground to dry out sooner.

In late June, 152 fires were lighted in a single weekend, mostly by lightning strikes. Since then, the number of acres burned has leapt forward by sometimes as much as 300,000 a day. The current record year, 2004, saw 6.59 million acres burned, but 2015 is ahead of its pace — although thanks to recent rainfall, the pace of burn has slowed.

This year is part of a trend that should continue as Alaska gets warmer and drier, says Scott Rupp, a professor of forestry at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, who also heads the university’s Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planning. “What we’ve been seeing in the last two decades is an increase in the extent of area burned from year to year and a fairly substantial increase in the frequency of these very large fire years,” Rupp says.

The result, in 2015, has been an influx of out-of-state firefighters who have had to get a crash course on the state’s unique fire ecosystem: highly flammable black spruce forests in which a thick ground layer of mosses, lichens and other organic materials, which firefighters call “duff,” can nourish fires and keep them smoldering even in damp conditions.

“A day or two after the precipitation . . . the fire will stand up and burn, just like it hasn’t even rained,” said Chad Martin, a “helitack” crew member from Rifle, Colo., stationed at the fire north of Fairbanks known as the Aggie Creek Fire.

Alaska has brought in a small army of firefighters and staff from Canada and the Lower 48 states to supplement 2,000 firefighters based here. The expected cost — a bill split between Alaska and federal agencies — is forecast to be $100 million, an unhappy wake-up call to a state that reduced staff at the McGrath, Alaska, fire outpost this year as a result of budget constraints. The state faces a massive $3.5 billion budget deficit, largely because of the declining price of oil.

Aside from the financial burden, there are other concerns, including risks to residents’ health and the state’s vital tourism industry.

When winds blow the wrong way, vast fires can lead to air-quality dangers in cities such as Fairbanks — earlier this month, smoke caused a “hazardous” air-quality rating, and many outdoor activities in the area were canceled. Large wildfires and smoke hazards are also bad news for tourism. No one wants to have low visibility — or problems breathing — while visiting Denali.


More troubling to climate scientists, the fires could contribute to the worsening of climate change.

On a walk into an unburned black spruce forest south of Fairbanks recently, ecologist Schuur dug a foot down into the soft and spongy duff layer with his pruning saw, pulling out a long core of organic material. “This is, like, 50 percent carbon,” he said. Reaching down half an arm’s length into the hole, through the duff layer’s cooling insulation, one can then touch frozen Earth: the beginning of the permafrost layer.

Intense wildfires burn not only trees — sending the carbon they contain into the atmosphere — but also deep into the duff layer, sending up still more carbon. Sometimes, fires burn all the way down to the mineral soil. When that happens, the frozen ground loses its insulation, even as the scorched earth then absorbs more heat from Alaska’s steady summer sun — and permafrost can thaw, sometimes so much that the ground sinks and becomes bumpy and hilly as it loses solid ice mass.

“Everything’s connected,” says Bob Bolton, a hydrologist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. “The climate, the permafrost, the water, the fires. You can’t look at one without looking at the other. Changes in one changes everything else. It’s a really, really sensitive system.”

That’s why changing it can have such big effects. Indeed, the trees that return after an intense Alaskan fire tend to be aspens and birches, which are more fire-resistant, rather than evergreen spruces. The change could have major consequences, such as harming habitats for iconic species such as caribou, which feed on lichen that grow at the bases of black spruce. But it also means that vast Alaska wildfires may not only be worsening because of climate change — but also have climate change consequences.

“What’s happening here really is affecting everyone in the world, because we’re all linked by our atmosphere,” says Nancy Fresco, a researcher at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, who studies Arctic ecosystems and climate adaptation.


Across the global north, it is estimated that permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the planet’s atmosphere. If wildfires in Alaska — or Canada or Siberia — hasten its already expected thawing, that could make global warming worse. “The permafrost that we degrade now in these forest fires might never return in our lifetimes,” Schuur said.

Granted, scientists are still trying to figure out how fast this could unfold and to what extent it will be offset by another key effect of Arctic warming. Plants pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis, including as forests regrow after fires. And as the Arctic warms up dramatically, there will be a longer growing season and also more carbon dioxide in the air — which, along with other nutrients and water, boosts plant growth.

And there are experts, including University of Alaska Fairbanks ecologist Dave McGuire, who think that new plant growth could offset the carbon lost by the combustion of more intense fires and emissions from permafrost, at least to the year 2100.

Out at the Alaska pipeline, meanwhile, the oil continues to flow. It has been well protected.

“The pipeline is the economic artery of the state, so that’s very significant,” says Jeff Andrews, the third in command at the Aggie Creek Fire.

“People keep wanting to pin the paradox on people who live in the Arctic,” said Mead Treadwell, Alaska’s former lieutenant governor and a Republican who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2014. “And the fact is that, yes, we make our living from developing oil and gas, and yes, we’re seeing effects of climate change.”

273. vis0

Quoting 161. Tazmanian:




no i wont help you
zilly reply at zilly pg cmmnt#32  (yes i used invisible in to create cmmnt#30 THERE, just select all to read)
The seasons as we know it relative to hurricanes have changed if existent at all.....the last few seconds years have proven that ......climatology is changing. Of course everyone will say it's too soon....but I saw the changes more than 3 years ago...rain and t storms are continually less common.

Quoting 201. wunderkidcayman:


I can't believe it myself you actually agree



Hmm I wonder if you have ever heard of such thing as an El Niño



That's that is just hogwash
There will be tons more majors in the Atlantic



Just the opposite mate



Dude I think you've gone mad you sure your not high as a kite on drugs or something



Dude chill out and get your head cleared



Dude I don't know but something is up with good ole HurricaneAndre



Lol thanks Taz... I can't believe I'm thanking you anyway thanks



Agreed



Oh poor soul look dude look chill our and relax the real hurricane season action doesn't start till August so it's ok to feel ... a bit ... kinda our out it if you want to call it that during May June and July during the kinda boring part of the season


Anyway guys I am sorry if this post is a bit long I had to head out and I missed a good chunk of data
Please do not flag or make fuss just let me know and I will chop this into smaller post
We need something to track!!
Nice shot

Quoting 256. ProgressivePulse:



Guess the crack in the windshield goes with the territory, lol.
Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is a large and long-tracked wedge tornado ongoing south of Tilston, Canada.


Quoting 267. gulfbreeze:

Scott if you are out there what does this super el-nino mean for our weather in the panhandle this winter? I will listen to anyone else if Scott's not on.


Good question. Wetter yes, cooler yes, now snow for you guys its possible all depends if we can have the cold in place as a system comes in from the Gulf.
Being in an inactive era doesn't justify the lack of rain in the Caribbean, the lack of tropical waves able to bring us decent rains, the excessive amount of dust across the MDR...
Quoting 270. 19N81W:

Will it rain again this year in Cayman?


10mm since july 1st in St Barth, 2mm in St Martin...
I think this is invest 94L now.
281. vis0

Quoting 154. HurricaneAndre:

Guys will you guys help me get through this season please. Thanks.
One has to find several things to follow in weather not  to place all eggs in one basket...unless its Easter.

Luckily nature gives us a plethora of stuff.

Try following Eddys (SIT DOWN chicklet not offering ice cream) via NAVY's Hycom pages here (not to be confused with the outdated1/32 site)
or
follow the global forecasting maps of the well advertised or the up n coming as here
or
the Atmos Carib research centers pages here

as a youngster i'd build train sets to keep my mind busy or paint (careful to do both in open air rooms) as i'd only sleep for 4 hrs a day...not a good thing
Quoting 247. Chicklit:

I have never in memory seen rain forecasts so far off for New Smyrna Beach which is south of Daytona and north of Canaveral. Luckily I did not change golf plans on Sunday based on predictions or I would have missed playing all weekend for nothing. Today again just clouds, no rain to speak of. Tomorrow it's at 90% but that could change by morning.
Tuesday 07/28 90% / 0.46 in
Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through late morning...then widespread showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent



Unfortunately it seems forecasters often feel they have to put pops that high just because there is a lot of tropical moisture and low pressure nearby, but let's face it, this is a west coast heavy coastal rain event, and it always was forecast to be one, such an event obviously leads to overcast and cool stable air to the inland and opposite coast, limiting rains despite deep moisture.

It's odd rain chances have been set that high, because over here where the true rain event was expected, and sure as heck did happen, the NWS had 60-80 pops. For example they have 70 pops here tomorrow, it doesn't make sense at all for Daytona Beach to have a higher rain chance in the grids than this side of the state in an event like this.
Quoting 282. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately it seems forecasters often feel they have to put pops that high just because there is a lot of tropical moisture and low pressure nearby, but let's face it, this is a west coast heavy coastal rain event, and it always was forecast to be one, such an event obviously leads to overcast and cool stable air to the inland and opposite coast, limiting rains despite deep moisture.

It's odd rain chances have been set that high, because over here where the true rain event was expected, and sure as heck did happen, the NWS had 60-80 pops. For example they have 70 pops here tomorrow, it doesn't make sense at all for Daytona Beach to have a higher rain chance in the grids than this side of the state in an event like this.


I agree but some on here don't get it as our high rain totals start here tomorrow as the low moves NE slowly toward NE FL. Also the pattern then gets re enforced come this weekend by another Gulf Low. People might be shocked at some of these rainfall accums tomorrow from Tampa to orlando as all short range guidance is really bringing the rain. Even today here near Apopka the radar showed only yellows & oranges and it was actually damm near a whiteout outside for about 4 minutes picking up .53".

Yawn.....




Quoting 267. gulfbreeze:

Scott if you are out there what does this super el-nino mean for our weather in the panhandle this winter? I will listen to anyone else if Scott's not on.

Please do not listen to what STS says. Please listen to your local weather office. STS's predictions will be hyperbole. There may be some adverse weather events due to El Nino and you should definitely monitor conditions and listen to local weather professionals but please do not constantly worry about what mother nature will bring this winter. Is there a possibility for severe weather due to El Nino? Absolutely! Just be vigilant, invest in a NOAA weather radio and continue to enjoy the Florida lifestyle!
Quoting 263. HurrMichaelOrl:


I agree. We did get a really good rainfall Saturday, around 2.7"(storms moving in from the NNE), then 0.2 yesterday and nothing today. This "wet pattern" has certainly not yielded anything above and beyond a normal, robust wet season pattern here in E. Central FL. This is simply a different way to get our normal rainfall here (which seems to be becoming more and more common these days). I much prefer the traditional meeting of the seebreezes in mid-late afternoon with widespread strong thunderstorm activity over the area for several hours. The precipitation coming from the west/SW can't seem to hold together and it had been that way for weeks now.

This low that is supposed to move across the Peninsula in the next couple days would surely bring a "blob" of nearly continuous rain with it. Is this supposed to even happen now? Are these really high rain chances just because most areas will get at least a passing shower at some point during the morning-evening tomorrow? I know the West Coast has been bombarded with rain and storms on a continuous basis recently. Is that where all of it will stay until the low suddenly crosses over to the Atlantic, then all the rain will develop off the East Coast, leaving us with a few pitiful showers to show for it?

I believe you are correct!! We will not receive much rainfall from this trough of low pressure. It seems the west coast will continue to be the beneficiary of the more robust rainfall. The convection just seems to die once it moves inland and the atmosphere in east central florida just does not have the opportunity to be destabilized with the cloud cover which limits heating. i am not expecting much more rainfall from this trough of low pressure.
Quoting 285. sanflee76:


Please do not listen to what STS says. Please listen to your local weather office. STS's predictions will be hyperbole. There may be some adverse weather events due to El Nino and you should definitely monitor conditions and listen to local weather professionals but please do not constantly worry about what mother nature will bring this winter. Is there a possibility for severe weather due to El Nino? Absolutely! Just be vigilant, invest in a NOAA weather radio and continue to enjoy the Florida lifestyle!


Been right on so far. So your point is the forecast all along was for heavy rains across western FL then the low comes across the then we get it tomorrow. Picked up .98 Friday, .30 Saturday, .11 Sunday, and .53" today leaving us with nearly 2" the last 4 days the meat of this comes this week for us. West coast totals have panned out with near 13" of rain in some areas since Friday. So again to the nagging bug that harasses everyone at the beach your point is?
290. vis0
.  .  .  .  .
.
.
.   %u03A0
.   %u040F
.  __
./        \     
Quoting 277. StormTrackerScott:



Good question. Wetter yes, cooler yes, now snow for you guys its possible all depends if we can have the cold in place as a system comes in from the Gulf.
Thanks Scott
293. vis0

Quoting 248. Astrometeor:



Nope. Besides, if you got your forecast into Max's list, yours is locked into stone. No changing allowed halfway through the season.
Only the pros can change i mean "update" their forecasts in June, Aug, Oct.
Pressures are expected to fall once again for the Gulf and FL come late week yielding another Gulf system though this time a little further north.

Quoting 292. Grothar:







Local Weather stations VIPER model has that Low approaching the Mouth of the River Thursday as a Depression.

Hmmmmmmm?
Quoting 295. Patrap:



Local Weather stations VIPER model has that Low approaching the Mouth of the River Thursday as a Depression.

Hmmmmmmm?


That model looks a little fast as both the Euro and GFS dig something into the north Gulf come the weekend. Shear looks lighter this time around too.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...                                               A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST N TO TAMPA BAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 27N87W TO 28N91W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 84W-91W AND N OF 24N E OF 84W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. 
                                          

What do you guys think.
Looks like this will be the year of above 20 North!
Ok blog way to slow must be time to call it a night!
302. vis0

Quoting 270. 19N81W:

Will it rain again this year in Cayman?
well i say the next major change in wxTrends begins in a < week, let see what happens


SYNOPSIS 2015072800

P09L

12N, 31W
700 hPa

ECMWF: P09L tracks WSW, being stretched zonally the entire five days. Tracked for only 84 hours, becoming just a region of modest OW after that.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -4.7 -0.3 v700 84h
GFS -4.8 0.0 v700 84h
Quoting 301. gulfbreeze:

Ok blog way to slow must be time to call it a night!


Me too I'm out. Good night guys & girls
Goodnight guys.
Quoting 287. Grothar:




Eye do believe eye see an I on that picture.
Maybe the first 2015 TD that GFS keeps alive to mid ATL from Africa....


NWS in Melbourne said the same thing here in Melbourne and they are forecasting rain all week, we got nothing Monday, few showers that was it. Chances were at 70% lets see what happens starting today.
Quoting 282. Jedkins01:



Unfortunately it seems forecasters often feel they have to put pops that high just because there is a lot of tropical moisture and low pressure nearby, but let's face it, this is a west coast heavy coastal rain event, and it always was forecast to be one, such an event obviously leads to overcast and cool stable air to the inland and opposite coast, limiting rains despite deep moisture.

It's odd rain chances have been set that high, because over here where the true rain event was expected, and sure as heck did happen, the NWS had 60-80 pops. For example they have 70 pops here tomorrow, it doesn't make sense at all for Daytona Beach to have a higher rain chance in the grids than this side of the state in an event like this.
Same thing I have been saying most of the week.
Quoting 263. HurrMichaelOrl:


I agree. We did get a really good rainfall Saturday, around 2.7"(storms moving in from the NNE), then 0.2 yesterday and nothing today. This "wet pattern" has certainly not yielded anything above and beyond a normal, robust wet season pattern here in E. Central FL. This is simply a different way to get our normal rainfall here (which seems to be becoming more and more common these days). I much prefer the traditional meeting of the seebreezes in mid-late afternoon with widespread strong thunderstorm activity over the area for several hours. The precipitation coming from the west/SW can't seem to hold together and it had been that way for weeks now.

This low that is supposed to move across the Peninsula in the next couple days would surely bring a "blob" of nearly continuous rain with it. Is this supposed to even happen now? Are these really high rain chances just because most areas will get at least a passing shower at some point during the morning-evening tomorrow? I know the West Coast has been bombarded with rain and storms on a continuous basis recently. Is that where all of it will stay until the low suddenly crosses over to the Atlantic, then all the rain will develop off the East Coast, leaving us with a few pitiful showers to show for it?
We had a training band stuck over me recently and the rainfall rate was insane, woke me up to sounds of if the roof is going to fall in, and I had fire hose amounts of water coming off my roof cause the gutters couldn't drain it quick enough. Flood water is at levels it rarely hits down my street except for in the most crazy downpours on saturated groundso. I can't believe how lame it looked on radar compared to how it really is, only just a little bit of "red dbz" just amazing. I don't have a digital gauge here but a Cocorahs gauge, in total we just got 2.41 in only 20-30 minutes, just crazy stuff.

This is by far the heaviest rainfall rate so far during this rainy pattern since the weekend I've seen!
Quoting 310. wunderkidcayman:


Quoting 311. wunderkidcayman:


Quoting 312. wunderkidcayman:




The CV system is back
Just updated. Euro brings the 15" max from western FL to the FL east coast now too on its 0Z run as another low is expected to form this weekend.

Quoting 313. Jedkins01:

We had a training band stuck over me recently and the rainfall rate was insane, woke me up to sounds of if the roof is going to fall in, and I had fire hose amounts of water coming off my roof cause the gutters couldn't drain it quick enough. Flood water is at levels it rarely hits down my street except for in the most crazy downpours on saturated groundso. I can't believe how lame it looked on radar compared to how it really is, only just a little bit of "red dbz" just amazing. I don't have a digital gauge here but a Cocorahs gauge, in total we just got 2.41 in only 20-30 minutes, just crazy stuff.

This is by far the heaviest rainfall rate so far during this rainy pattern since the weekend I've seen!
morning jedkins..yeah it woke me up also..our area under an urban flood warning this morning,and nws is warning of a lot more rain coming
Largo its going to get much worse another system is expected to replace the one already overhead.

OZ Euro
well to my north in pasco county 300 homes have been evacuated due to flooding, and gee with all This new heavy rain all day here a lot more are going to need to move to higher ground..this is going to be bad for a lot of folks here.
320. vis0
Quoting 306. Astrometeor:



Eye do believe eye see an I on that picture.



Using the latest state of the art technology lets si,
image host
ya have a good,... ~aye.

BTW i've thought for ~3 days that there are 2 Lows trying to form on either side (they each concentrate  the cloud mass away from Fl) of FL but each is missing what the other has, ULL vs. LLL

CREDIT::http://www.thisbrighton.co.uk/culture-wildlife4. htm (site has not been checked just pulled img from google)
Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:

Largo its going to get much worse another system is expected to replace the one already overhead.

OZ Euro



Do you have your ark built yet? Looks like you may need it.
Quoting 321. Dakster:



Do you have your ark built yet? Looks like you may need it.
LOL where is Noah when you need him?
Low lying areas in Pinellas Park are not draining fast enough now. The storm canal across the street from me is about 6 inches from overflow this morning. I have standing water in my back yard not flowing to the drainage ditch.

If it rains hard all day like it did yesterday, I might need some sand bags at my door.
Quoting 319. LargoFl:

well to my north in pasco county 300 homes have been evacuated due to flooding, and gee with all This new heavy rain all day here a lot more are going to need to move to higher ground..this is going to be bad for a lot of folks here.


Pretty relentless. Local mets and NWS have done an excellent in forecasting this event. We've been under a flood watch since last Thursday and it will continue.
could be the trough remains stalled out in the n.e. gulf for the next week or more
Good morning...Question are the shear levels expected to remain high in the gulf..
thats tropical storm Fay 2008 precip. amounts. watch out!
328. beell
Quoting 325. islander101010:

could be the trough remains stalled out in the n.e. gulf for the next week


GFS begins to pull the surface trough/old frontal boundary off to the E/NE-concurrent with the New England mid-level low easing off into the westerlies. Any surface low should cross FL today and emerge off the eastern coast of FL tomorrow.

Northerly shear is still an issue. Hard to expect too much in the way of tropical development from a broad 1012 mb surface low embedded in a 1014 mb environment.
GFS shows that even though we are in an el nino and a possible negative amo, there will still be activity off Africa because climatology does allow conditions to get better as we approach the peak. it's a good sign the model is showing some mischief off Africa at the end of the run
Here is a follow up on the weather in Manitoba that was mentioned in the blog last night:

"The Canadian Press
Published Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2015 2:22AM EDT
Last updated Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2015 2:32AM EDT
Nerves were frayed across much of southern Manitoba and parts of Saskatchewan on Monday night as a large band of severe weather spawned funnel clouds and produced heavy rain and damaging hail.

Environment Canada issued several tornado alerts throughout the evening, saying it had received reports of tornadoes touching down near Tilston and Virden in Manitoba, as well as rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds in southeastern Saskatchewan.

Dozens of photos and videos posted to Twitter showed what appeared to be twisters touching to the ground. In some, the asphalt looked to have been ripped from the road along a two-lane highway near Pierson, Man., and there were reports of grain bins being found on rural roads.

There were no immediate reports of injuries or major damage, but power lines were brought down and some farm buildings appear to have been hit.

In one alert, Environment Canada said the tornado had become rainwrapped and hard to see, calling that “a dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation.”

Television programming in Manitoba was regularly interrupted by emergency alerts warning of tornadoes moving toward small communities and at one point, toward the town of Virden, which has a population of about 3,000.

A town Twitter feed reported that local RCMP were pulling vehicles off the road and instructing drivers to take shelter, and others reported officers were telling people inside at least one convenience store to stay put until the storm passed.

“Virden radar shows it is almost here,” Mayor Jeff McConnell tweeted at one point. “Take cover now please! I want to see you in the morning.”

Power was knocked out in the town for a time and near midnight, Environment Canada confirmed that a tornado had hit an area northeast of the community.

Regina, meanwhile was deluged with 73 millimetres of rain, which caused localized flash flooding in some streets."
Quoting 313. Jedkins01:

I can't believe how lame it looked on radar compared to how it really is, only just a little bit of "red dbz" just amazing. I don't have a digital gauge here but a Cocorahs gauge, in total we just got 2.41 in only 20-30 minutes, just crazy stuff.


I've wondered this for a while, and it's why I take radar and its estimates with a grain of salt. The light green and greens always seem non-existent or just sprinkles. I've also witnessed rainfall (light) without any colors showing up on radar.

Yellows seem to be pretty consistent as far as rainfall rate goes, but it's been my experience that as rates rise and rain becomes heavy to very heavy, radar colors don't always fall in line. I always chalked it up to various unknown radar and technology errors, as well as a gap in real time rainfall and radar indicated rainfall.
so is all that rain in the gulf going to be coming in mostly north of Tampa today? Looks on radar like its hugging the coast, not much making in to the east part of the bay so far.....so far.
Good morning all...

Good Morning. Our area of convection in the Gulf from the trof remnant/low shrunk down convection wise overnight. Nice tight ball of convection left over and sheer too high for potential development at this time.



335. MahFL
Only 15 kts of shear in the Big Bend area...

First morning in a while that the day has started with sunshine here in Fort Myers .
Don't see it drifting to the North and taking advantage of the slightly lower shear closer to shore in the Big Bend (where I live); it does not have enough room so close to shore to make a transition to a depression IMHO before coming ashore If it does. It could just fizzle out later today at this rate.
Still shear city out there sandwiched between the high pressure to the North and the the low/trof the area is still embedded in:

Meanwhile the rest of the Atlantic is dusty and clear as a bell:


Quoting 294. StormTrackerScott:

Pressures are expected to fall once again for the Gulf and FL come late week yielding another Gulf system though this time a little further north.




Our rain chances go up to around 50% in NW Florida starting tomorrow and stay that way for the next 8 days or more so I think you're right. We haven't been really dry in NW Florida, we have had some beneficial rains but they've been too far spread out. Hopefully this pans out and we get some good rains in the next week or so.
Another morning of driving through Central Florida with Clouds so low and full of moisture it looks like smoke and haze. Starting to miss our sunshine a bit!
GFS has come in agreement with the Euro notice the 25" plus amounts off Tampa. Just insane!

Most of the weather action today for Conus will be in the upper mid-west:


Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER NEW ENGLAND.


Quoting 328. beell:



GFS begins to pull the surface trough/old frontal boundary off to the E/NE-concurrent with the New England mid-level low easing off into the westerlies. Any surface low should cross FL today and emerge off the eastern coast of FL tomorrow.

Northerly shear is still an issue. Hard to expect too much in the way of tropical development from a broad 1012 mb surface low embedded in a 1014 mb environment.


You forgot about the re enforcing trough that moves in Friday and forms yet another surface low in the East Gulf. GFS & Euro are really forecasting some of the biggest rainfall amounts so far this year for the US.
The SAL reigns supreme, in most of the MDR this morning. This will be evident for the 10 days or more. What that has done is to put a cap on possible development the next two weeks. That being said there are two ares of little concern. The first is off the African coast with moderate spin, and the other near 38W which is showing a little spin in the lower cloud field. Also the one at 38W looks like a mid level entity and will not amount to much. none of the reliable models are showing cyclogenesis for the next two weeks.
Look at all the flooding on the Tarpon Spring skycam.

Definitely wet across FL this week, however nothing of tropical nature. We however are very used to rainfall in the summer months so despite doom and gloom forecasts its not out of the ordinary overall.

Good Morning:

The area of disturbed weather in the northeast Gulf seems to be pulsing in convection, and has also persisted for several days. Whatever happens, it is likely to dump more rain in Florida.

Big question, will it move northeast over Florida, or stall out ... only to move in a different direction?

Although there is a lot of wind shear out there, any disturbance that persists .... over time .. might get into more favorable conditions for future development. A blob worth watching!
Quoting 336. Sfloridacat5:

First morning in a while that the day has started with sunshine here in Fort Myers .


Sarasota, too. Though there are some scattered clouds moving onto Longboat Key right now, it's still nice to see sunshine again.
The 12.48" so far for July has caused one of my Oak Trees to break off and water is coming out of the tree no lie!

Quoting 347. CapeCoralWx:

Definitely wet across FL this week, however nothing of tropical nature. We however are very used to rainfall in the summer months so despite doom and gloom forecasts its not out of the ordinary overall.


Not sure if I agree, yes we are used to rainfall in the summer months, but that is from afternoon sea breeze driven thunderstorms. This troughiness has been persistent for about 2 weeks now and now with a weak area of low pressure, rainfall totals are beginning to add up across west-central FL. Already nearly a foot of rain has fallen in just 3 days in some spots of Pasco County near the Holiday area, to add to that rivers are above flood stage. And it doesn't look like we will budge from this pattern this week and maybe early next week we begin to transition away to a more typical summertime pattern.
Sure hope your right
Not sure what you see on the horizon but all I see is dust and strong trades
On the sat I see the same thing half way across the atlantic
Quoting 302. vis0:


well i say the next major change in wxTrends begins in a < week, let see what happens

Quoting 351. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Not sure if I agree, yes we are used to rainfall in the summer months, but that is from afternoon sea breeze driven thunderstorms. This troughiness has been persistent for about 2 weeks now and now with a weak area of low pressure, rainfall totals are beginning to add up across west-central FL. Already nearly a foot of rain has fallen in just 3 days in some spots of Pasco County near the Holiday area, to add to that rivers are above flood stage. And it doesn't look like we will budge from this pattern this week and maybe early next week we begin to transition away to a more typical summertime pattern.


Even early next week is a maybe as models specifically the GFS cuts off a low in the East Gulf. Could be a potential for tropical development. I don't see any end to this pattern the next 7 to 10 days.

This is going into next weekend. It almost seems never ending. One has to wonder if this is because of the AEI index being at record levels of 3.9 sigma which is higher than the 1997 reading at its peak!

Sarasota has just reached its normal average rainfall total for July, but half of that fell within the last few days. This has definitely not been the normal pattern of afternoon seabreeze-driven thunderstorms. Those are pretty predictable, but the last few days have felt more like tropical bands coming through all day.
Quoting 350. StormTrackerScott:

The 12.48" so far for July has caused one of my Oak Trees to break off and water is coming out of the tree no lie!





Ive been telling you guys for days that there is going to be a tree problem, esp pine
With some luck East Central Florida may make up it's yearly rainfall deficit when the trough crosses over to the Atlantic.







Quoting 355. K8eCane:




Ive been telling you guys for days that there is going to be a tree problem, esp pine


That tree that broke off is a Water Oak so when it rains too much they just fall over. Shook the house around 3 AM this morning. My neighbor had one fall over last month after a day we had over 2.50" of rain. Over 20" since June 1st at my location.
Quoting 347. CapeCoralWx:

Definitely wet across FL this week, however nothing of tropical nature. We however are very used to rainfall in the summer months so despite doom and gloom forecasts its not out of the ordinary overall.


Im sorry I don't agree,this isn't our usual rainy season kind of storms,those usually come in the afternoon and really in no way approach the kind of rainfall amounts we're getting here around tampa bay,this is an unusual event without some tropical system sitting over us..flooding all over the place...my guess is we will be breaking rainfall records if this keeps up.

Good Morning All..

From Crownweather Services

Some Tropical Development Is Possible Near The South & North Carolina Coast By About Thursday; Additional Tropical Development Is Possible Near The Northern US Gulf Coast This Weekend
Quoting 355. K8eCane:




Ive been telling you guys for days that there is going to be a tree problem, esp pine


And with saturated ground they better pray they don't get any high winds with the afternoon thunderstorms, might topple some trees up uprooting them!
Here is the Tally NWS take on the blob. As noted here, and with no model support/no orgnaized system to initialize, it meandering out there at the moment and we actually have no idea which way it will drift or go..........Just need to see where it ends up or dissipates over the next 12-24:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Moisture is beginning to increase across the area, and this can be
seen on the satellite derived precipitable water and on the 00z KTAE
sounding. A weak area of low pressure continues to meander to the
south with a bonafide tropical airmass across the Florida peninsula
and grazing the far southeast big bend.
For this afternoon, guidance
indicates that isolated convection is possible across the area with
PoPs mostly around 20%. The exception is again across the southeast
big bend where greater chances of rain exist closer to the weak area
of low pressure and higher moisture.
Quoting 355. K8eCane:




Ive been telling you guys for days that there is going to be a tree problem, esp pine
It will make for some nice firewood for the winter. A good mix of hardwoods and pine makes for a nice hot crackling fire.
Morning all. Due to a little band of clouds we have been overcast this morning, a welcome relief, albeit temporary, for the relentless sun of the last few days.

I'll be interested to see how much that trough impacts the SE FL coast an the NW Bahamas. Plus didn't I see something about an ULL approaching this area from the east?

Quoting 359. ncstorm:

Good Morning All..

From Crownweather Services

Some Tropical Development Is Possible Near The South & North Carolina Coast By About Thursday; Additional Tropical Development Is Possible Near The Northern US Gulf Coast This Weekend
Morning nc .... I guess they are looking at that trough and thinking something will spin up from it?
Here are the shots from yesterday and today for comparison:

Today:




Yesterday:
Quoting 364. BahaHurican:

Morning nc .... I guess they are looking at that trough and thinking something will spin up from it?


I didnt read their analysis of how they think it will happen as they are now a paid website and I limit myself to one paid weather subscription a year but I would agree with you as well..




Later..work calls..
00z UKMET





Quoting 350. StormTrackerScott:

The 12.48" so far for July has caused one of my Oak Trees to break off and water is coming out of the tree no lie!




Laurel or Live Oak? The Laurels that were planted in the 50's and 60's around Central Florida are all starting to reach their maximum life span. I had to get a 30 footer removed recently.
Quoting 358. LargoFl:

Im sorry I don't agree,this isn't our usual rainy season kind of storms,those usually come in the afternoon and really in no way approach the kind of rainfall amounts we're getting here around tampa bay,this is an unusual event without some tropical system sitting over us..flooding all over the place...my guess is we will be breaking rainfall records if this keeps up.

In Central Florida west of Orlando we are getting showers with little lightning if at all which is unusual. Ever since this front stalled the weather has not been the norm.
Quoting 371. sporteguy03:


In Central Florida west of Orlando we are getting showers with little lightning if at all which is unusual. Ever since this front stalled the weather has not been the norm.
yes what we are getting isn't normal,especially here on the gulf coast whew.
GFS long range has a system forming and moving west.

Quoting 362. SouthTampa:

It will make for some nice firewood for the winter. A good mix of hardwoods and pine makes for a nice hot crackling fire.
Won't that mix also make for a coked-up chimney? My chimney sweep people told me never to burn pine--too much resin.
the group of clouds n.e gulf dont seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere.
Quoting 355. K8eCane:




Ive been telling you guys for days that there is going to be a tree problem, esp pine


I dunno... pines have a deep tap root.. sometimes as deep as is tall... only a SERIOUS wind would "snap" them off at the tap root.. they don't just lay over like an Australian pine that has no tap root... even water oaks have a minimal tap root.. mostly in mature trees they are lateral systems that can be affected by wet soil...


do we have a low off the southeast coast to
gfs best i can tell no longer takes ne gulf clouds out to sea. also to note i it has a large tropical wave leaving w. africa 150hrs
Quoting 376. indianrivguy:



I dunno... pines have a deep tap root.. sometimes as deep as is tall... only a SERIOUS wind would "snap" them off at the tap root.. they don't just lay over like an Australian pine that has no tap root... even water oaks have a minimal tap root.. mostly in mature trees they are lateral systems that can be affected by wet soil...


Thats true...but pine ( with its deep root) is what will be unexpected
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015



GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. WHILE PROVIDING A GENERALLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...A SURFACE WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF A 1013 MB
LOW CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W AND SURFACE TROUGHING
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS FOR THE
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N84W WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OK, OK, it's a blob, with a semi-blob off the coast of GA.

Pat, it looks like you may get a little action later this week.

Quoting 336. Sfloridacat5:

First morning in a while that the day has started with sunshine here in Fort Myers .
May destabilize things and get some strong storms.
O I hope not'

But as to our just coming around to N and Nest winds here, that denotes the system has trended a lil stronger as the Southerly flow we had,is now N to Neast.

One to watch with one eye for now.

: )
Quoting 386. hydrus:

May destabilize things and get some strong storms.


Could be. I've got 86 degrees with the sun shining after 4 straight days of cloudy weather with occasional heavy showers. Humidity is still ridiculous. I can only stay outside for about 2 minutes because it's so hot.
Quoting 383. Grothar:

OK, OK, it's a blob, with a semi-blob off the coast of GA.


oh oh..we got the official blob Alert now!!
Quoting 388. Sfloridacat5:



Could be. I've got 86 degrees with the sun shining after 4 straight days of cloudy weather with occasional heavy showers.
Nary a rain drop over Fla atm.

Doom, small "d" is kinda postponed.
Scott,

I had a Live Oak that got some minor damage from H. Wilma. It had an opening in the 'V of the trunk' that let some water in. I never noticed this. 9 years later it started to rot inside and I saw water coming out near the bottom of the trunk during heavy rains. I had to have one of my favorite tree removed. Too bad as it was providing some good shade on the front of my house. When they cut it down they said it had rotted 30% inside.

After the rains stop and the tree dries up, I suggest having an arborist look at patching the opening if you want to save the tree.

Quoting 357. StormTrackerScott:



That tree that broke off is a Water Oak so when it rains too much they just fall over. Shook the house around 3 AM this morning. My neighbor had one fall over last month after a day we had over 2.50" of rain. Over 20" since June 1st at my location.
Quoting 392. Patrap:

Nary a rain drop over Fla atm.

Doom, small "d" is kinda postponed.
July is not a big month for Fl in the TC department anyway...August may have something.
I'm watching the activity in the GOM to see if it drops a little further south an affects my area later today. I've got a pretty nice mushroom farm growing in the back yard. lol
I usually hold my breath thru Aug and Sept, thus the blue skin tint.
Patrap- it's been raining almost nonstop at my house in FL since 4AM. We've gotten 12" since Friday and still falling.
With the High moving out to the Nw, we have to watch the Low for a west to Nw drift.






we have a new low off the southeast coast right now!!!
Thanks for the blob alert, Gro.

There is only a slim chance for rain here at my location - just 20%- for the day.
But since you've called the blob alert I am sure we will be drowning in rain through the remainder of the week and this weekend as the GOM low crosses the peninsula.
Quoting 398. Patrap:

With the High moving out to the Nw, we have to watch the Low for a west to Nw drift.






Everybody has been watching every move it makes for days. Nothing new here


we need to watch this low off the southeast coast line!!
Storm totals

Quoting 404. hurricanes2018:



we need to watch this low off the southeast coast line!!
Shear looks pretty bad 40-50. The eastern gulf a little better but not favorable at this time. As the Gulf system drifts west it may find more favorable conditions in a few days. Give them credit for being persistent.



SYNOPSIS 2015072800

P11L

29N, 82W (Using 62W to help center a quasi-stationary pouch)
700 hPa

ECMWF: Change from yesterday (come into agreement with GFS): Although ECMWF still tracks toward the NE, P11L now moves slowly, staying closer to the US coast rather than racing off toward the ENE. Quickly weakens when caught by a midlatitude trough on Day 5. ECMWF continues to develop another circulation over Florida in a few days, but it is weak.

GFS: The 96-hour position is now a little farther off the coast than in ECMWF. Also weakens when the trough arrives. GFS also depicts another weak circulation, although it is just west of Florida by 120 hours.
Quoting 406. centex:

Shear looks pretty bad 40-50. The eastern gulf a little better but not favorable at this time. As the Gulf system drifts west it may find more favorable conditions in a few days. Give them credit for being persistent.


Shear forecast to decrease here
A massive El Nino is STILL growing: Ten year high will cause prices of everything from chocolate to coffee to rocket but WON'T bring relief to California, forecasters say
Forecast says El Nino conditions are likely to last another nine months
US set to experience wetter-than-normal conditions along Gulf Coast
Peru declared a pre-emptive state of emergency ahead of floods
By MARK PRIGG FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 17:17 EST, 27 July 2015 | UPDATED: 18:07 EST, 27 July 2015

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In California, they're counting on it to end an historic drought; in Peru, they've already declared a pre-emptive emergency to prepare for devastating flooding.
Experts say El Nino is set to be the largest in well over a decade - and will increase the price of coffee, chocolate and sugar.
The latest forecasts reveals the effect is still growing, and could survive the winter.
Scroll down for video

+2
The US National Oceanic and Atmosopheric Administration has detected warmer than average water surface temperatures around the equator of the Pacific Ocean (shown above) which indicates the arrival of El Niño
WHAT IS EL NIÑO
El Niño is caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator.
Usually the wind blows strongly from east to west, due to the rotation of the Earth, causing water to pile up in the western part of the Pacific.
This pulls up colder water from the deep ocean in the eastern Pacific.
However, in an El Niño, the winds pushing the water get weaker and cause the warmer water to shift back towards the east.
This causes the eastern Pacific to get warmer.
But as the ocean temperature is linked to the wind currents, this causes the winds to grow weaker still and so the ocean grows warmer, meaning the El Niño grows.
This change in air and ocean currents around the equator can have a major impact on the weather patterns around the globe by creating pressure anomalies in the atmosphere.
However, they say a competing weather pattern known as 'the blob' could stop it bringing desperately needed relief to California.
That pool of incredibly warm ocean water was a major player in the weather over western North America this past winter.
A strong ridge of high pressure was parked over the region, keeping things warm and dry from California to Alaska.
The wintertime pattern has been so domineering that West Coast meteorologists dubbed it the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' and believe it could cancel out the effects of el Nino.
But the Capital Weather Gang's Matt Rogers told the Washington Post the North Pacific warm pool is a powerhouse right now and could prove hard to overcome, especially if El Niño turns out to be weaker than predicted.
'The positive SST feedback from that warm pool would likely get outweighed by tropical forcing from an El Niño if we see a strong or super El Niño hold through the winter just based on past performance,' Rogers said.
Looking back through previous events, he has found that global weather patterns — in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian Ocean temperatures — are not quite matching up with previous strong events like the ones in 1997-1998, which throws a lot more uncertainty into the forecasts that are calling for a very strong El Niño.
Rogers says if El Niño ends up being weaker than predicted, 'then the warm pool could influence bigger Alaska ridges like the last two winters,' which would mean another painfully dry rainy season for California.


Whatever is out there (the weak low on the Gulf side) and no low off the SE coast yet per the surface charts, it ain't pretty and one sheared mess with Florida "in the middle" between the two ends of the trof.
Not sure that the Gulf area is going to "cross-over" to the Atlantic side; this is one big area having trouble on both sides of the peninsula with any organization because of the high shear levels.






Rex, this storm was a major cat.-4 WInds of 60-MPH were felt as far south as the Miami area.
I will pay attention to those African waves on or after August 7th-
There is no reason only that that is when SAL should decline as a factor against development of these storms. But when they track close to the Carib , GOM, or SE CONUS, that's when we should start hoping nothing bad develops and impacts property and lives.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Pat, this system caused very heavy rains and wind gusts to 30-MPH along the south east coast as well.
Quoting 392. Patrap:

Nary a rain drop over Fla atm.

Doom, small "d" is kinda postponed.


Orlando will still have epic flooding...
Quoting 356. nrtiwlnvragn:

With some luck East Central Florida may make up it's yearly rainfall deficit when the trough crosses over to the Atlantic.










Would you (or anyone else) clue me in as to where I might find these graphical illustrations of temperature and rainfall versus average?

TIA
Quoting 405. Patrap:

Storm totals




I see 10+" readings. In ~4 days... pretty impressive. Not to mention some sexy 16+" spots in the GOM. Send some my way, please? UNL says we're D1 (Moderate Drought) with no rain forecast for the next 5 or so days.