WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Record Ocean Temperatures Threaten Hawaii's Coral Reefs

By: Jeff Masters 7:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2015

Record warm sea surface temperatures in Hawaii's waters threaten to bring a second consecutive year of record coral bleaching to their precious coral reefs this summer. According to NOAA, ocean temperatures in the waters near and to the south of the Hawaiian Islands were 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average in June, which was the warmest these waters have been since record keeping began over a century ago. With the waters surrounding Hawaii expected to warm to their highest values of the summer by September, and likely remain 1 - 2°C above average, NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has placed the islands under a Coral Bleach Watch, and their experimental coral bleaching forecast gives a 50 - 90% chance that Hawaii will experience "Level 2" thermal stress this summer--the highest category of danger, likely to result in widespread coral bleaching and mortality. The record warm ocean temperatures are due to a strong El Niño event that is pushing large amounts of record-warm water into the Central Pacific, in combination with the steady rise in ocean temperatures due to global warming. Mass coral die-offs commonly occur during strong El Niño events; the United Nations Environmental Program found that 16% of the worlds coral reefs were effectively lost during a nine-month coral bleaching episode associated with the 1997 - 1998 record-strength El Niño event. With this year's El Niño event likely to be almost as strong as the 1997 - 1998 one, coral reefs are going to take a beating again.


Figure 1. NOAA's experimental coral bleaching forecast gives a 50 - 90% chance that Hawaii will experience Satellite Bleaching Alert Level 2 thermal stress this summer--the highest category of danger, likely to result in widespread coral bleaching and mortality. El Niño conditions have produced an extremely warm band of water from the central equatorial Pacific to the South American coast, and Level 2 thermal stress has already been reached in the Gilbert, Phoenix, and Northern Line Islands in Kiribati, as well as in Micronesia, the Howland and Baker Islands, and to the east in the Galápagos.


Figure 2. Unusually warm waters are also in place along the northern coast of Cuba and in the Bahamas, and NOAA's experimental coral bleaching forecast gives about a 70% chance coral reefs in these waters will experience Satellite Bleaching Alert Level 2 thermal stress this summer--the highest category of danger, likely to result in widespread coral bleaching and mortality.

Second consecutive year of severe coral bleaching in Hawaii
Hawaii's reefs are already reeling from their worst coral bleaching event in recorded history in 2014, when record warm ocean temperatures caused 50 - 70% of the corals sampled in Northeast Oahu's Kāneʻohe Bay to bleach. When the sea surface temperature is 1°C warmer than the highest monthly mean temperature corals usually experience, coral polyps will expel the symbiotic algae that live in their tissues, exposing the white skeleton underneath, resulting in a white "bleached" appearance. Death can result if the stress is high and long-lived. In Hawaii's waters, corals cannot tolerate water temperatures above 83°F (28.3°C) for multi-week periods without suffering bleaching. Corals typically recover from mild bleaching, gradually recovering their color by repopulating their algae. However, if the bleaching is severe or prolonged, individual polyps or whole colonies will die. With Hawaii likely to undergo a second consecutive year of record warm waters and coral bleaching in 2015, widespread mortality in many of Hawaii's coral reefs is possible, particularly around the Big Island.


Figure 3. During June 2015, the ocean areas near and to the south of Hawaii were at their warmest levels since record keeping began in 1880. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Could a hurricane help?
When hurricanes and tropical storms churn the waters, they upwell large amounts of cooler waters from the depths that can cool the surface waters, potentially reducing the thermal stress on coral reefs. The heavy rains from the storm can also potentially cause cooling. This occurred in the Virgin Islands in 2010, when Hurricane Earl and Hurricane Otto helped relieve a potentially dangerous coral bleaching episode (Figure 4.) So, should Hawaii hope for a hurricane this September to help save its coral reefs? Well, be careful what you wish for. Hurricanes cause damage to reefs. Following Tropical Storm Iselle, which hit the Big Island of Hawaii on August 7, 2014, with 60 mph winds, researchers at the University of Hawaii, Hilo documented that one coral reef on the Big Island (the Wai`ōpae tide pools) suffered physical damage from pounding waves that broke up to 18% of the coral colonies of one species of coral with long slender branches--cauliflower coral. Other corals suffered lesser damage, 0 - 10% breakage. In addition, these corals were subjected to sewage contamination due to damage of cesspools and septic tanks.


Figure 4. Mean daily temperatures (on left Y-axis) with standard error collected at reef-depth (26'-58') monitoring sites on St. John US Virgin Islands, and total daily rainfall (on right Y-axis) from August through October 2010 from Newfound, Haulover, Tektite, Yawzi and Mennebeck Reefs in the Virgin Islands. Image credit: Rafe Boulon, Resource Management Chief, Virgin Islands National Park.

Long term outlook for world's coral reefs: bleak
The large amount of carbon dioxide humans have put into the air in recent decades has done more than just raise Earth's global temperature--it has also increased the acidity of the oceans, since carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water to form carbonic acid. The oceans are acidifying faster than at any time in the past 300 million years. Corals have trouble growing in acidic sea water, and the combined effects of increasing ocean temperatures, increasing acidity, pollution, and overfishing have reduced coral reefs globally by 19 percent between 1950 - 2008. Another 35 percent could disappear in the next 40 years, even without the impact of climate change, according to a report released in October 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Coral expert J.E.N. Veron, former chief scientist of the Australian Institute of Marine Science, had this to say in an excellent interview he did with Yale Environment 360 in 2010: "the science is clear: Unless we change the way we live, the Earth's coral reefs will be utterly destroyed within our children's lifetimes...Reefs are the ocean's canaries and we must hear their call. This call is not just for themselves, for the other great ecosystems of the ocean stand behind reefs like a row of dominoes. If coral reefs fail, the rest will follow in rapid succession, and the Sixth Mass Extinction will be upon us--and will be of our making."


Figure 5. An example of coral bleaching that occurred during the record-strength 1997-1998 El Niño event. Image credit: Craig Quirolo, Reef Relief/Marine Photobank, in Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. MahFL
Nothing is going to form with 30 kt's of shear.

a small retention pond over flowed nearby and washed mud sticks and stones into a neighbors brand new pool. bummer for the family and there in not even a classified storm yet.
Good Morning. The frontal trof centered from Florida to the Gulf dried out considerably between Friday and this morning:


And the E-Pac is on the move again in a big way; expect things to be quiet on the Atlantic side in the short-term:



And finally: shear all over the Atlantic MDR and a huge SAL outbreak 


Here is picture in terms of the W-Pac: looks like we may have a new Typhoon developing at 178W-25N. It already looks like a tropical storm at this current point or at least a "depression" by Atlantic standards IMHO.



Notwithstanding the "look" of that area in the W-Pac, it has not been noted yet by the JTWC as of 2:00 am EST.  That may change later today:
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
And closing out on the global front, there is an invest in the Indian Ocean:

ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/270000Z-271800ZJUL2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.3N 90.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 69 NM WEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BANGLADESH COASTLINE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE BAY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. A 261533Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE;
HOWEVER, FUTHER ORGANIZATION IS HAMPERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) IN ADDITION TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE INTO INDIA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IF THE DISTURBANCE WERE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY AND GOOD OUTFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM//
NNNN

Geesh! Already some yards down Welch Rd that are water logged as the water is just not receding from all this heavy rain so far this month.

Steady SSE winds at 22mph with higher gusts and occasional heavy downpours on Longboat Key this morning.
Lots of rain with this low.

Quoting 1010. flbeachgirl:

Steady SSE winds at 22mph with higher gusts and occasional heavy downpours on Longboat Key this morning.


Low is looking decent on radar this morning.

HRRR model develops a closed low just west of Tampa today. This also looks like a Tropical Storm forming by hour 13 on this run. Looking more and more tightly wound.

1014. intampa
suns out again this morning YAY ...but doesnt that add fuel to the unstable atmosphere in the tampa area ?
This looks impressive. We might have a sleeper here.

Quoting 1014. intampa:

suns out again this morning YAY ...but doesnt that add fuel to the unstable atmosphere in the tampa area ?


There is more rain coming than you know what to do with. Hang in there and watchout for low lying flooding the next several days.
Quoting 1009. StormTrackerScott:

Geesh! Already some yards down Welch Rd that are water logged as the water is just not receding from all this heavy rain so far this month.




We live just a couple blocks off Welch and our Pool was topped off nicely! Not sure it will hold this much rain if that were to happen!!
vis does look good bet there is an invest coming up
Quoting 1018. islander101010:

vis does look good bet there is an invest coming up


NHC might be dropping the ball here as there are 25 to 35 mph winds on the east & SE side of this system with some gust higher than that in those bands.
Quoting 1012. StormTrackerScott:



Low is looking decent on radar this morning.




Yep, and the water and surf just has that "look" about it this morning.
VERY hazy driving in this morning to Ocala on Northbound I-75. Lots of low cloud cover.
Quoting 1017. KDDFlorida:



We live just a couple blocks off Welch and our Pool was topped off nicely! Not sure it will hold this much rain if that were to happen!!


It is really odd though that on the other side of I-4 they have had know where near as much rain as we have had. I can count on 1 hand how many days it hasn't rained this month. Other than one day of just over 6" we have had .25 to .75 daily.
Quoting 1018. islander101010:

vis does look good bet there is an invest coming up



nop
Quoting 862. hydrus:

To bad you were not in South Dade back then...You would have enjoyed it.
I was, and we had a lot of damage, but I still want to see another Andrew. Helps remove a lot of the trash.
1025. K8eCane
Quoting 1022. StormTrackerScott:



It is really odd though that on the other side of I-4 they have no had near as much rain as we have had. I can count on 1 hand how many days it hasn't rained this month. Other than one day of just over 6" we have had .25 to .75 daily.



I saw the rain stop at a stop sign once, no joke
Here is the velocity mode and you can clearly see this system is organizing slowly under 20 knt shear.

Quoting 899. BahaHurican:

Evening to all.... the topic to day hits very close to my heart. Between loss of coral habitat for immature fish of a wide range of species, and attacks on native / indigenous fish by the highly aggressive and invasive lionfish which has become increasingly widespread in our waters, within a generation traditional fisheries in The Bahamas are likely to be nonexistent.

This is a sad story being sung more and more by people around the world.

Wrong.
Remember Claudette from 2009. Went un noticed too by the NHC. This low is sitting on SST's that are in the upper 80's.

Looking tropical over in Tampa.

Notwithstanding all the swirls and whirls in the Eastern Gulf, shear is moderate to high per CIMMS. It's no longer a ULL as there is a broad rotation signature at the mid and surface levels but it would have a tough time trying to organize unless shear dropped considerably:

Quoting 1028. StormTrackerScott:

Remember Claudette from 2009. Went un noticed too by the NHC. This low is sitting on SST's that are in the upper 80's.




nothing willl fourm with wind shear like this

there 30 too 40kt of shear on both side of FL

1032. MahFL
Quoting 1011. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of rain with this low.


Yes there is, but it's watering the ocean...
Low is really beginning to wrap up and winds are increasing over on the West Coast near St. Pete & Clearwater.

1034. ricderr
good spot there taz...and it's increasing


Despite shear convection is firing around our center WNW of Tampa

Quoting 1035. StormTrackerScott:

Despite shear convection is firing around our center WNW of Tampa




That's Bad News! I'm driving up to Tampa today to take the Florida BAR for next two days. It looks like its going to be a mess!
1037. Sandcat
Where is the low off Tampa expected to go? Cross Florida going East?
Quoting 1033. StormTrackerScott:

Low is really beginning to wrap up and winds are increasing over on the West Coast near St. Pete & Clearwater.




Scott, do you happen to look at the NHC page? Its a good source. No mention of any system developing despite the showers currently affecting the Tampa area. Overall the area looks to stay wet, however tropical development is not likely for the next 48 hours. Also, others have posted wind shear. Looks like typical showers and wind, nothing FL isn't used too in the summer months.



wind shear map
Quoting 1037. Sandcat:

Where is the low off Tampa expected to go? Cross Florida going East?


Low is expected to cross N C FL the next few days. Whether it develops or not the effects will be the same. I just think its interesting that it appears this low is developing despite the odds. Winds near Tampa are increasing too so well see how it goes thru the day.


notting happern here
Quoting 1013. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR model develops a closed low just west of Tampa today. This also looks like a Tropical Storm forming by hour 13 on this run. Looking more and more tightly wound.


This looks similar to that meso low that went up the coast near cape Canaveral a few years ago...
Tropical Threat May Be Brewing Near US East Coast ON July 27, 2015; 8:28 AM ET
While wet weather and flooding has been ongoing in the Southeast over the past couple of days and is expected to continue into early this week, a new threat may be brewing just offshore.
AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned that a tropical threat may be on the horizon, with waters extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico to Bermuda the most likely zone for development.
"Atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for tropical formation during the middle of this week across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the Southeast coast," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Ben Noll. A stalled frontal boundary, in addition to above-average water temperatures and lessening wind shear, will play a role in the formation of a tropical system. However, any system that does form will likely do so in a gradual fashion as opposed to a rapid development.
It is still too early to tell where such a system may track if it indeed does form. However, areas that will want to keep a watchful eye on the forecast over the comings days include the northeastern Gulf Coast, Florida, the Southeast Coast and Bermuda.
A part of the wind and breeziness across Florida is a function of the pressure gradient between the high pressure to the North of the trof and the ULL to the south draping across parts of Western Cuba (which will also enhance some of the convection). You can see both features driving the sheer-windiness in the WV loop:





WATCHING!!!!
Quoting 1037. Sandcat:

Where is the low off Tampa expected to go? Cross Florida going East?


ne e

Some of the heavier rainfall totals

Rainfall reports past 72 hours ...

Hillsborough County...
4 se Odessa 7.46 in 0823 am 07/27 28.15n/82.55w
greater Northdale 0.4 ENE 7.06 in 0700 am 07/27 28.11n/82.51w

Lee County...
southwest Florida internatio 8.30 in 0753 am 07/27 26.54n/81.75w
Bonita Springs 3.1 NW 8.11 in 0700 am 07/27

Manatee County...
1 WNW Bradenton 8.95 in 0830 am 07/27 27.49n/82.59w

Pasco County...
2 NE Holiday 11.28 in 0819 am 07/27 28.21n/82.72w
Port Richey 7.84 in 0804 am 07/27 28.27n/82.73w
pithlachascotee 7.56 in 0715 am 07/27

Pinellas County...
Tarpon Springs 5.6 E 8.99 in 0700 am 07/27 28.14n/82.66w
S-551 8.89 in 0745 am 07/27 28.05n/82.71w
Tarpon Springs 8.77 in 0800 am 07/27 28.14n/82.66w
2 E Palm Harbor 8.18 in 0824 am 07/27 28.09n/82.72w
2 SSE Tarpon Springs 8.00 in 0804 am 07/27

Sarasota County...
1 N Laurel 8.99 in 0818 am 07/27


Here is the skinny from Tally NWS looking to the South:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Northeast surface flow and a drier than average airmass for this
time of year will persist across the area today with a notable
exception across the southeast big bend. A weak and elongated area
of low pressure will remain across the Florida peninsula.
The
southeast big bend will remain close enough to the deep moisture for
showers and thunderstorms to be likely again this afternoon, but
elsewhere a dry day is expected with afternoon high temperatures in
the mid 90s.


As expected, a weak area of low pressure developed at sea level along that stationary front over the weekend, and weak low pressure also formed in the upper levels of the atmosphere over that same area. Both have been drifting over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Florida peninsula, since they developed. This setup is helping to boost the formation of showers and thunderstorms, and it's reducing (but not eliminating) upper-level shearing winds otherwise hostile for developing tropical cyclones.




Link
Heavy rain has moved back into my area just S.E. of Fort Myers. We'll be topping 10" for a 3 day total here on the south side of town (South West Regional Airport) in a hour or so.
Quoting 1050. sporteguy03:



As expected, a weak area of low pressure developed at sea level along that stationary front over the weekend, and weak low pressure also formed in the upper levels of the atmosphere over that same area. Both have been drifting over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the Florida peninsula, since they developed. This setup is helping to boost the formation of showers and thunderstorms, and it's reducing (but not eliminating) upper-level shearing winds otherwise hostile for developing tropical cyclones.




Link


Here is part of the link that is a good summary of current conditions we are discussing:

In theory, if clusters of showers and thundershowers can develop in the same place as the low-pressure center and persist, it could eventually develop into at least a tropical depression.

However, in reality, winds in the upper atmosphere are expected to remain hostile for development. The National Hurricane Center had been highlighting an area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to off the Southeast coast for possible subtropical or tropical development during the next five days. They dropped that highlight early Sunday morning and have not reintroduced it.

XXL/INV/XX

Quoting 1027. NativeSun:

Wrong.

You're going to have to be more specific. I found articles about the lion fish invading the reefs around the Bahamas, the detrimental effect on the traditional species and fisheries, and I imagine people there are upset about it. And, as mentioned by Dr. Masters and known to any marine biologist, coral reefs provide an important habitat for diverse marine species.

Your comment makes you sound, dare I say it, "crabby".
1055. LargoFl
Quoting 1053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/INV/XX


This could be an invest at this time. Maybe.
It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the new swirl just to the SW of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend). Multiple swirls all morning, in various locations, tying to find a groove:

1058. LargoFl
Quoting 1052. weathermanwannabe:



Here is part of the link that is a good summary of current conditions we are discussing:

In theory, if clusters of showers and thundershowers can develop in the same place as the low-pressure center and persist, it could eventually develop into at least a tropical depression.

However, in reality, winds in the upper atmosphere are expected to remain hostile for development. The National Hurricane Center had been highlighting an area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to off the Southeast coast for possible subtropical or tropical development during the next five days. They dropped that highlight early Sunday morning and have not reintroduced it.


What I posted is explaining why the satellite appearance appears better. Chances are still low for development but not impossible.
1060. hydrus
Quoting 1024. NativeSun:

I was, and we had a lot of damage, but I still want to see another Andrew. Helps remove a lot of the trash.
That comment was not directed at you, but since you took time to type a response, I would just as soon find an alternative to removing whatever trash it is your referring by some other means. Destroying everything makes more trash, an even encourages trash to take hold.
1061. 19N81W
Ya I can see it in the sky here in Cayman.....we were supposed to get some rain today/tonight sadly its being absorbed by the dust...you can see the layer...it looks like a high overcast but its dust...
I think the SAL has the ability long term to turn the caribbean into an ever increasing arid climate.
If it was in the Pacific they wouldnt be as active regardless of El Nino....the sal has a much higher impact than we think.

Quoting 1005. weathermanwannabe:

And finally: shear all over the Atlantic MDR and a huge SAL outbreak 



1062. LargoFl
MON JUL 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO
SOUTHWARD TO LEE COUNTY...

.SATURATED SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO SOUTHWARD TO LEE.

FLZ050-149-151-155-160-162-165-249-251-255-260-26 2-265-272000-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150728T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND PASCO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. PETERSBURG...CLEARWATER...LARGO...
PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...TAMPA...APOLLO BEACH...WESTCHASE...
BRADENTON...ANNA MARIA ISLAND...VENICE...SARASOTA...ENGLEWOOD...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...CAPTIVA...SANIBEL...
DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...
SUN CITY CENTER...PARRISH...LAKEWOOD RANCH...MYAKKA CITY...
NORTH PORT...BABCOCK RANCH...FORT MYERS...LEHIGH ACRES
356 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF FL AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FL...COASTAL CHARLOTTE...COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL LEE...COASTAL MANATEE...COASTAL PASCO...
COASTAL SARASOTA...INLAND CHARLOTTE...INLAND HILLSBOROUGH...
INLAND LEE...INLAND MANATEE...INLAND PASCO AND INLAND
SARASOTA. IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...PINELLAS.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* IF POSSIBLE...CLEAR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS OF ANY DEBRIS WHICH MAY
BECOME CLOGGED IN FLOODING RAINS.

SATURATED SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO SOUTHWARD TO LEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
Quoting 1061. 19N81W:

Ya I can see it in the sky here in Cayman.....we were supposed to get some rain today/tonight sadly its being absorbed by the dust...you can see the layer...it looks like a high overcast but its dust...
I think the SAL has the ability long term to turn the caribbean into an ever increasing arid climate.
If it was in the Pacific they wouldnt be as active regardless of El Nino....the sal has a much higher impact than we think.




I feel really bad for you folks rain-wise; it has been very dry in the Caribbean for the past two months. You folks will actually need a tropical storm or two to bring down some the rain deficits and cool you down (or at least a several healthy tropical waves).
1064. Grothar
It looks unlikely anything very strong could develop in the Gulf. I would expect very heavy rain as the system crosses to the NE and then development is more likely. These systems are not unusual and very common during this time of year. Before we could track these lows, we just thought we were getting heavy rainstorms. Before, after getting one of these, all we said was, "Wow, where did that come from?"

1065. K8eCane
Quoting 1057. weathermanwannabe:

It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the swirl just to the SE of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend):




You wont happen to know if that shear is forecast to weaken any time soon, would you?
Quoting 1057. weathermanwannabe:

It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the new swirl just to the SW of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend). Multiple swirls all morning, in various locations, tying to find a groove:




Winds are getting more breezy out of the South here NW of Orlando.
SW winds at 25mph and steady rain on Longboat Key .
Quoting 1057. weathermanwannabe:

It boils down to shear on this one; if shear dropped, I could see something spin up relatively quickly but NHC is cognizant of the shear issues. However, it's still tying; notice the new swirl just to the SW of Cedar Key (I was down there this past weekend). Multiple swirls all morning, in various locations, tying to find a groove:


cyclonic signature evident rainfall threat high
How this isn't an invest is beyond me.

EUROPE'S HIGHEST RAILWAY STATION - NEW RECORD WARMEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time warmest temperature at the site of Europe's highest railway station, Jungfraujoch, Swizterland, of 13.6 C / 56.5 F was set on July 21, 2015. The elevation of Jungfraujoch railway station is 3454 meters / 11332 feet.
1071. Patrap
This is a surface chart.




Quoting 1047. Sfloridacat5:

Some of the heavier rainfall totals

Rainfall reports past 72 hours ...

Hillsborough County...
4 se Odessa 7.46 in 0823 am 07/27 28.15n/82.55w
greater Northdale 0.4 ENE 7.06 in 0700 am 07/27 28.11n/82.51w

Lee County...
southwest Florida internatio 8.30 in 0753 am 07/27 26.54n/81.75w
Bonita Springs 3.1 NW 8.11 in 0700 am 07/27

Manatee County...
1 WNW Bradenton 8.95 in 0830 am 07/27 27.49n/82.59w

Pasco County...
2 NE Holiday 11.28 in 0819 am 07/27 28.21n/82.72w
Port Richey 7.84 in 0804 am 07/27 28.27n/82.73w
pithlachascotee 7.56 in 0715 am 07/27

Pinellas County...
Tarpon Springs 5.6 E 8.99 in 0700 am 07/27 28.14n/82.66w
S-551 8.89 in 0745 am 07/27 28.05n/82.71w
Tarpon Springs 8.77 in 0800 am 07/27 28.14n/82.66w
2 E Palm Harbor 8.18 in 0824 am 07/27 28.09n/82.72w
2 SSE Tarpon Springs 8.00 in 0804 am 07/27

Sarasota County...
1 N Laurel 8.99 in 0818 am 07/27



I'm in between Holiday and Odessa and picked up just over 9"
Quoting 1064. Grothar:

It looks unlikely anything very strong could develop in the Gulf. I would expect very heavy rain as the system crosses to the NE and then development is more likely. These systems are not unusual and very common during this time of year. Before we could track these lows, we just thought we were getting heavy rainstorms. Before, after getting one of these, all we said was, "Wow, where did that come from?"




Hi Gro-
Have you been getting rain down there?

Quoting 1071. Patrap:

This is a surface chart.







This low is really spinning now. As this comes ashore tomorrow there is going to be some pretty remarkable rainfall amounts from Tampa to Orlando as that band off Tampa reforms over land tomorrow.
10 years since Hurricane Katrina:
Progress in hurricane modeling, prediction, decision support, and coastal resilience


Excerpt:

On Tuesday, July 28, NOAA Administrator Dr. Kathryn Sullivan will hold a special briefing at the U.S. Department of Commerce Library in Washington, D.C., to mark a decade of science progress since the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which remains the most active on record.
Quoting 1073. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Have you been getting rain down there?




Any rain by you lately? Melbourne is near 10" for July already and most of this has come in the last 10 days.

Who thinks we have 94L. I think so. It sure looks good right now.
Quoting 1072. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'm in between Holiday and Odessa and picked up just over 9"


Yeah, lots of heavy rain amounts out there. Some of the heaviest rainfall in my area has fallen where there aren't any official reporting stations. Reports of 10"-15" is pretty common out towards to beach extending down into nothern Collier County around here.

But our official reporting station down town (Page Field) has "only" picked up around 3" since Friday. But just little South of the city (South West Regional Airport and areas just south of there), 8-15" has been reported.
1079. Patrap
This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.

Quoting 1065. K8eCane:



You wont happen to know if that shear is forecast to weaken any time soon, would you?

I can only rely on the CIMMS charts for shear issues and the most recent 24 hour tendancy in the Eastern Gulf (already posted below) is for shear to increase (as opposed to decreasing).
Quoting 1069. StormTrackerScott:

How this isn't an invest is beyond me.


its just getting going by give em a little time see how it performs next 6 hrs or so
Quoting 1080. StormTrackerScott:

This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.


I wouldn't say it's "well" organized since it's still very ovular.
Quoting 1080. StormTrackerScott:

This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.


I really believe that this is a 30mph invest at this time.
Quoting 1054. annabatic:


You're going to have to be more specific. I found articles about the lion fish invading the reefs around the Bahamas, the detrimental effect on the traditional species and fisheries, and I imagine people there are upset about it. And, as mentioned by Dr. Masters and known to any marine biologist, coral reefs provide an important habitat for diverse marine species.

Your comment makes you sound, dare I say it, "crabby".
Hi annabactic, the lion fish is an invasive species to the Bahamas and South Florida, but is not overtaking the reefs and killing all the native juvenile fish. South Florida has the same reef fish as found in the Bahamas and yes the people in the Bahamas need to learn to eat the Lionfish as they are very tasty. As far as the reefs being effected by the higher ocean temps caused by this strong Nino, this is not a permanent problem and they will recover in time. This is one of the problems caused by strong Nino's along with the death of millions of fish in other parts of the world.
1086. Patrap
It is a cute lil baby low atm.

Quoting 1080. StormTrackerScott:

This is a well organized system atleast at low levels. If shear wasn't in the 20 knt range then we might have a rapidly developing system.


no rapid dev scott just some rain maybe some gusty breezes at times in daytime heat affect after passage over fla then maybe a different monster will come
1088. K8eCane
Quoting 1081. weathermanwannabe:


I can only rely on the CIMMS charts for shear issues and the most recent 24 hour tendancy in the Eastern Gulf (already posted below) is for shear to increase (as opposed to decreasing).




Thats in the eastern Gulf. How about off southeasst coast where this may go
Quoting 1083. FLWeatherFreak91:

I wouldn't say it's "well" organized since it's still very ovular.


It's a closed circulation. Very well organized at low levels. Upper levels a different story.
1090. Patrap
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
920 am EDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Discussion... clouds cover much of the area and numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are moving onshore in the Tampa Bay area.
Other showers are moving onshore around Fort Myers. Areas from Tampa
Bay south continue in a Flood Watch today along the coastal counties
from Pasco County south to Lee County. 2 to 4 inches of rain is
possible in the watch area with locally higher amounts. This morings
sounding shows moderate cape and precipitable water at 2.25 with southwest winds up
to 700 mb and east to northeast above. Low pressure just offshore
over the Gulf west of the Nature Coast is creating an easterly flow
over areas north of Tampa Bay keeping showers offshore for now. But
as the low gradually migrates northeast the showers will develop
northward bringing more rain to the Nature Coast. Rain amounts will
be greater where showers are more persistent. Shower activity will
clear over the land but persist over the Gulf coastal waters
tonight. Increasing west to southwest winds over the coastal waters
will generate seas that will create rip currents at area beaches
today.

&&
1091. Patrap
Long term outlook for world's coral reefs: bleak

The large amount of carbon dioxide humans have put into the air in recent decades has done more than just raise Earth's global temperature--it has also increased the acidity of the oceans, since carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water to form carbonic acid. The oceans are acidifying faster than at any time in the past 300 million years. Corals have trouble growing in acidic sea water, and the combined effects of increasing ocean temperatures, increasing acidity, pollution, and overfishing have reduced coral reefs globally by 19 percent between 1950 - 2008. Another 35 percent could disappear in the next 40 years, even without the impact of climate change, according to a report released in October 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Quoting 1076. StormTrackerScott:



Any rain by you lately? Melbourne is near 10" for July already and most of this has come in the last 10 days.




Hi Scott-

We seem to be back to normal although stats show St.Lucie is 5-6 inches below where it should be.
It's great to be near normal.
Regardless of development issues (with high shear and proximity to land being the main impendiment IMHO), it's a very good blob watch for us today:


Quoting 1086. Patrap:

It is a cute lil baby low atm.


And nothing more. Looking east from the 4th floor of All Children's Hospital over the bay: clouds are moving fairly rapidly SW-NE, there is very little wind and light rain. Gray day here...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1097. DVG
I know Alex formed in the Atlantic in 2004, but before doing so, it was a severe thunderstorm over Tampa. I had a six o'clock flight out, and didn't leave until after 11pm. Sitting in the concourse I saw one of the most spectacular lightning shows I've ever seen. At the gate I was offered a view of the radar from the computer. After it reached TS status, it provided some pretty impressive clouds over NE Fla. I have pictures. ( I also have a picture of Katrina's first outer band of clouds from a plane over the VAB in Titusville the day before it struck south Fla )
1098. Grothar
Very little. Just enough for the geckos. Not a drop yesterday or today.



Quoting 1073. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-
Have you been getting rain down there?






1099. Grothar
This is a good close-up loop. It is investy but not blobby looking yet.

Link