WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:36 PM GMT on July 23, 2015

Global ocean temperatures hit their warmest levels in recorded history last month. Since hurricanes are heat engines which extract heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the kinetic energy of the storms' winds, we should be concerned about the potential for hurricanes to be stronger as a result of global warming. Indeed, the observed 0.3°C (0.5°F) warming of Earth's oceans over the past 30 years has made more energy available to hurricanes, says a new study published in May in Nature Climate Change by Florida State hurricane scientist James Elsner and the deputy director of the National Typhoon Center in South Korea, Namyoung Kang. The researchers found that this extra heat energy has led to a change in both the frequency and intensity of global tropical storms and hurricanes. Using a new mathematical framework to categorize all global tropical cyclones with wind speeds of at least 39 mph over the past 30 years, the authors showed that the observed warming of Earth's oceans during that time period has led to an average increase in wind speed of about 3 mph (1.3 m/s) for each storm--but there were 6.1 fewer named storms globally each year because of the warmer oceans. A typical year has about 85 named storms globally, so this represents about a 7% decrease in the number of storms.


Figure 1. One of the most spectacular images ever captured of a tropical cyclone from space: Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time, Mayask had top winds of 160 mph as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and a central pressure of 905 mb, as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Image has been brightened and flipped 180 degrees. Image credit: Terry W. Virts.

Why fewer storms, but the strongest ones getting stronger?
More moisture is evaporated from a warmer ocean surface, resulting in water vapor concentrating in the lower atmosphere. Since moist air is less dense than dry air, this creates greater instability, leading to stronger updrafts in developing storms and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes. However, this low-level moisture is not effectively transported to high altitudes, resulting in warmer and drier conditions aloft and stronger high pressure in the middle and the upper troposphere. This high pressure aloft forces thunderstorm activity to concentrate in time and space, resulting in fewer tropical cyclones--but the increased moisture at low levels allows more efficient intensification once a tropical storm is spawned. "Thus tropical cyclone intensity increases at the expense of tropical cyclone frequency", the authors wrote. In an interview at sciencedaily.com, Kang said, "In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones are likely to occur. In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones." Many climate models also predict fewer but more intense tropical cyclones in a future warmer climate--for example, Knutson, T. R. et al., 2010, "Tropical cyclones and climate change", which projected intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. The "official word" on climate, the 2013 IPCC report, predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions. The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment found that "the intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Impacts
While it is good news that warming of the oceans may potentially lead to fewer hurricanes, this will probably not decrease the total amount of hurricane damage if the strongest storms get stronger. Damage done by a hurricane increases by somewhere between the second and third power of the wind speed, so just a 10 mph increase in winds can cause a major escalation in damage. According to Pielke et al., 2008, over the past century, Category 3 - 5 hurricanes accounted for 85% of U.S. hurricane damage, despite representing only 24% of U.S. landfalling storms. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes made up only 6% of all U.S. landfalls, but accounted for 48% of all U.S. damage (if normalized to account for increases in U.S. population and wealth.) This study also found that hurricane damages in the U.S. were doubling every ten years without the effect of climate change, due to the increases in wealth and population. If we add in an increase in the frequency of the strongest storms, combined with storm surges that will be riding inland on top of ever-increasing sea levels due to global warming, the damage math for coastal regions gets very impressive for the coming decades.

References
Nam-Young Kang, James B. Elsner, "Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones", Nature Climate Change, 2015; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2646

Pielke, R.A, et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900 - 2005," Natural Hazards Review, DOI:10.1061/ASCE1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)

Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns, my 2013 blog post

The Atlantic remains quiet
High wind shear and dry, sinking air continue to dominate the tropical Atlantic, and none of the reliable models for predicting tropical storm formation show a tropical depression or tropical storm forming over the next five days. However, the models are showing that the remains of an old cold front extending from Florida's Gulf Coast to the waters offshore of North Carolina could serve as the focus of the development of a low pressure area capable of transforming into a tropical storm, early next week. Anything that does form along this front would move northeastwards, out into the open Atlantic, and not be a significant threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



from last blog
Thanks for the update Dr Masters.
Thank you Dr. Masters.

Indeed, my insurance agent assures me that East Coast Florida homeowners living within 5 miles of the ocean will continue to see their hazardous homeowners insurance policies continue to increase to meet with assessed risks however it is actuarially determined. Yet the demand to live at the waters' edge has never been higher.

I must add something that has been on my mind as we all walk this path together.

I have noticed that the trend in long term climate models, Has consistently underplayed the temperature rise and the observed "Global effect's" by observations as well.

Can you add any insight to this in a future entry Dr. Masters?
From the previous blog:

391. AreadersinceWilma
11:48 AM EDT on July 23, 2015
0
Quoting 383. Neapolitan:

I'm not sure what exactly constitutes a "scientific high horse", so can't comment on that. But I'll say this: I think it's illogical to cease teaching science to a group of people simply because it's been determined that they don't know enough. And it's silly to claim that people you don't think are doing enough to combat climate change therefore have no right to talk about it. A doctor who smokes, overeats, and drinks too much is still a doctor...

" I think it's illogical to cease teaching science to a group of people simply because it's been determined that they don't know enough."

Of course it's illogical. The key in your statement is that "they don't know enough". The answer and possible solution is "how do you change that?"

"And it's silly to claim that people you don't think are doing enough to combat climate change therefore have no right to talk about it"

I am amazed as to how you reached the conclusion of not having the right to talk about it.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: February 25, 2015 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
Thanks Doc..Fewer and stronger.? I dont want to imagine anything stronger than Haiyan, Wilma , Allen , or Gilbert.....Category-6 Hurricane.?..Who knows.
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'"
Isaac Asimov

How we overcome this, particularly when so many "leaders" are so willing to exploit it, I honestly don't know.
Quoting 4. rmbjoe1954:

Thank you Dr. Masters.

Indeed, my insurance agent assures me that East Coast Florida homeowners living within 5 miles of the ocean will continue to see their hazardous homeowners insurance policies continue to increase to meet with assessed risks however it is actuarially determined. Yet the demand to live at the waters' edge has never been higher.


last few days ive been browsing the web, reading the scientific articles on sea level rise, and its amazing to me, just how much of south florida and the island communities that would either be flooded or downright underwater..i wont mention the maps ive seen of a 10 foot seal level rise..if indeed this does begin to happen with a 3 foot rise,millions of people in coastal communities will have to evacuate permanently,and that goes all around the usa..im not very big on this GW thing but somehow this is starting to come into view as a very real danger in the decades to come.
New record all-time hottest temperatures are being reported at a few obscure European locations including Schaerding, Austria at 38.2 C / 100.8 F, Ronchi dei Legionari, Italy at 39.2 / 102.6, and Gradisca d'Isonzo, Italy at at least 40.0 C / 104.0 F.
Quoting 9. LargoFl:

last few days ive been browsing the web, reading the scientific articles on sea level rise, and its amazing to me, just how much of south florida and the island communities that would either be flooded or downright underwater..i wont mention the maps ive seen of a 10 foot seal level rise..if indeed this does begin to happen with a 3 foot rise,millions of people in coastal communities will have to evacuate permanently,and that goes all around the usa..im not very big on this GW thing but somehow this is starting to come into view as a very real danger in the decades to come.


People should buy / build homes inland. The property values will surely increase dramatically as coastal homes become imperiled due to rising sea levels or hurricane destruction.
12. vis0
For a sec there i was going to than Dakster...Thank You Dr. Masters
Five Volcanoes Erupt In Indonesia, Blanketing Skies In Ash
AP
Posted: 07/22/2015




JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) -- Eruptions of ash at five volcanoes shrouded the skies over parts of the Indonesian archipelago Wednesday, forcing three airports to close.

Mount Raung on Java island blasted ash and debris up to 2,000 meters (6,560 feet) into the air after rumbling for several weeks, government volcanologist Surono said.

Ash erupted also from Gamalama and Dukono mountains on the Moluccas islands chain, Sinabung volcano on Sumatra island and Mount Karangetang on Siau island, darkening the skies, Surono said.

A total of more than 13,000 people have been evacuated due to the volcanic eruptions since last month, mostly from around the slopes of Sinabung in Tanah Karo District, added Surono, who uses a single name.


"Our evaluation showed there is no extraordinary natural phenomenon that triggered simultaneous eruptions of the five volcanoes," Surono said, adding that all the eruptions are natural and normal occurrences in a nation with about 130 active volcanoes.

Transport Ministry spokesman Julius Adravida Barata said Jember and Banyuwangi airports closed late Tuesday and Bali's international airport was closed for several hours on Wednesday, disrupting flights. Media reports said 37 flights to and from Bali's Ngurah Rai airport were cancelled.

An eruption of Raung early this month sparked chaos as the airport in the tourist hotspot of Bali and four other airports in the region were shutdown, stranding thousands of holiday-goers.

Last week, the ministry closed Sultan Babullah airport in North Maluku's Ternate town after eruptions at Gamalama and Dukono sent volcanic ash up to 1,700 meters (5,570 feet) into the sky.

Indonesia, a chain of 17,000 islands where millions of people live in mountainous areas or near fertile flood-prone plains, is prone to seismic upheaval due to its location on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," an arc of volcanoes and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.

Quoting 11. rmbjoe1954:



People should buy / build homes inland. The property values will surely increase dramatically as coastal homes become imperiled due to rising sea levels or hurricane destruction.
yes indeed,but at what point in time will people start really believing this is going to happen I wonder..my guess is, when a 2 foot sea level rise has officially happened.
Quoting 9. LargoFl:

last few days ive been browsing the web, reading the scientific articles on sea level rise, and its amazing to me, just how much of south florida and the island communities that would either be flooded or downright underwater..i wont mention the maps ive seen of a 10 foot seal level rise..if indeed this does begin to happen with a 3 foot rise,millions of people in coastal communities will have to evacuate permanently,and that goes all around the usa..im not very big on this GW thing but somehow this is starting to come into view as a very real danger in the decades to come.
you better hush, Gov. Scott says we not apposed to talk about it .....
Tropical Storm Felicia

Tropical Storm Felicia
Pressure: 1004 mb

Last Updated Jul 23, 2015 1500 GMT
Location 19.1N 114.9W Movement NW
Wind 40 MPH
17. JRRP
Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 4 minHace 4 minutos
SST for past week 2015 minus 1997...recent Typhoons / Eastern Pacific hurricanes show up nicely.
Link
Quoting 8. ACSeattle:

"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'"
Isaac Asimov

How we overcome this, particularly when so many "leaders" are so willing to exploit it, I honestly don't know.
They more than exploit it - it's their only means for existence in the political realm. They will perpetuate ignorance at all costs as they've built their livelihoods upon it.
Thanks Dr. At the end of the day, and assuming a propensity for fewer but some stronger storms in any given season, it's not about the number of storms so much as opposed to "where" these storms reach peak intensity. Peak intensity (or close to it) at landfall on a populated region is where the rubber meets the road; peak intensity as a fish storm is a beautiful thing to watch. In the longer term, it will be interesting to see if warming causes any significant variation from the current climatological trajectories that we normally see for any given month during the season; the storms will always turn poleward but I am curious to see how it may impact ridging and trof patterns.

I will also note that the Pacific Basin produces the most storms in any given year so these intensity trends will become very evident there; just noting that many folks just focus on Atlantic Storms but the E-Pac and West Pac is where most of the action really is in any given year.
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

Conventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave
overpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past
several hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions
of the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical
storm. Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before
moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment,
persistent northerly shear should impede any significant
strengthening. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all
show Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. Global models subsequently
indicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4
days or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be 320/11. Felicia is forecast
to continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36
hours. Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually
turning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is
steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is
basically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the
GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 19.1N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Quoting 14. LargoFl:

yes indeed,but at what point in time will people start really believing this is going to happen I wonder..my guess is, when a 2 foot sea level rise has officially happened.


Well that's all part of the problem isn't it? The scientists use projections from models to try and forewarn so policy can be implemented to stave off the projection. Instead, we will do nothing and some even say it isn't real until 2 feet of water is the new norm, and by that point, it isn't stopping at 2 feet since there is a lag time involved.

On another note, I'm glad you are taking some time to look into what is happening and what has been projected to happen.
12z UKMET is showing a Moderate Tropical Storm


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 72 : 30.2N 79.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.07.2015 30.2N 79.1W WEAK

00UTC 27.07.2015 30.3N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.07.2015 31.2N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.07.2015 32.1N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.07.2015 32.5N 77.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.07.2015 33.4N 75.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.07.2015 35.0N 74.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Quoting 8. ACSeattle:

"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'"
Isaac Asimov

How we overcome this, particularly when so many "leaders" are so willing to exploit it, I honestly don't know.

Tried many different ways including almighty ass kicking (verbally, of course). To save myself from utter misanthropy I decided to keep kicking ass(es) but merely for my amusement. Once in a while someone will surprise me very positively, count a bonus. Usually I get the abuse leading climate revisionists should get, even from 'our' side, when I state their message (which includes: CO2 is not a GHG, and climate revisionists wish the most massive of all kinds of flooding, droughts, unbearable heat and confused guerilla water wars onto us - now bring it on).
Thanks for the interesting new post, doc.

Quoting: "The Atlantic remains quiet ..." Well, this applies to tropical storms, nevertheless the Atlantic is about to develop a probably very dangerous and violent windstorm which will ride up the English Channel tomorrow and then, on Saturday, will hit Germany and adjacent countries at the North Sea. It's going to be one of those complicated windstorms, in which moist tropical air and dry cold air are mixed by the jetstream and which will fully pan out only short range. To see something like this in summer is very rare and probably devastating as the trees are full of leaves. Weather services are starting to publish warnings, and weather enthusiasts are prepared to stay glued to their screens with high resolution models. This future windstorm isn't yet named; the name Zeljko is the next on the list though. Of course, I'll keep you updated in case the threat materializes (boy, I thought to have a little break after the heatwave let up a bit in my place ...)




Center of the storm on Saturday 3pm over our coast of the North Sea.


Cold air from the northwest is wrapped into the warm air mass to the east: Germany and BeNeLux-Countries, Saturday, 3 pm. Source.


SYNOPSIS 2015072300

P08L
9N, 30W
700 hPa

NOTE: CIMSS TPW depicts an area to the west of P08L (~45W) that actually has more moisture than P08L. Indeed, the models’ Hovmoller diagrams also depict a stronger signal there. However, interestingly, the wind and OW fields don’t necessarily depict a stronger circulation that even the weak P08L. While tempted to initiate a new pouch near 45W, I will not given the weakness of that area’s circulation.

ECMWF: Consistent story: Very small. Very weak. Tracks WSW as a tiny OW max. Dissipates upon reaching South America. Often depicted with a zonal stretch.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -8.7 -1.8 v700 96h
GFS -9.0 -1.4 v700 84h
UKMET
25. barbamz12:36 PM EDT on July 23, 2015

Here is the North Atlantic Jet position relative to the wind storm you are noting for parts of Europe:


Over here on Florida's Gulf Coast barrier islands, even a 1 foot increase in sea level would have a major impact, with some of our neighborhoods uninhabitable. We already see saltwater coming up through the stormwater system and flooding the streets during extreme high tides, which didn't happen 20 years ago. SLR is a touchy subject around here, since no one wants to think about their properties being underwater. Barrier islands were never meant to be permanently inhabited, though, and we are constantly fighting against nature and the sea. It's a losing battle, but one that people will pour money into for as long as they can. Our costs for beach nourishment continue to rise, with costs reaching the tens of millions of dollars over the next few years. And as anyone who works in beach nourishment knows, you don't "buy" sand, you "rent" it.
Quoting 15. intampa:

you better hush, Gov. Scott says we not apposed to talk about it .....
yeah,my best guess is the everyday working people wont come to believe it until govt comes out officially and with evidence,telling people the oceans are indeed rising at an accelerated rate and will rise to 3 feet by...date.........all people within the described area's and low lying communities should begin making preparations to move belongings etc inland...but by then...it may be too late huh
Wow, today should be a good day for thunderstorms in my area. Already puffy clouds building up and it's only 11:30. Hahaha getting excited.
Quoting 30. flbeachgirl:

Over here on Florida's Gulf Coast barrier islands, even a 1 foot increase in sea level would have a major impact, with some of our neighborhoods uninhabitable. We already see saltwater coming up through the stormwater system and flooding the streets during extreme high tides, which didn't happen 20 years ago. SLR is a touchy subject around here, since no one wants to think about their properties being underwater. Barrier islands were never meant to be permanently inhabited, though, and we are constantly fighting against nature and the sea. It's a losing battle, but one that people will pour money into for as long as they can. Our costs for beach nourishment continue to rise, with costs reaching the tens of millions of dollars over the next few years. And as anyone who works in beach nourishment knows, you don't "buy" sand, you "rent" it.
yes good luck to you folks, everything ive read so far,says the barrier islands will be the first to go.
Quoting 29. weathermanwannabe:

25. barbamz12:36 PM EDT on July 23, 2015

Here is the North Atlantic Jet position relative to the wind storm you are noting for parts of Europe:




This thing develops at near bomb rate as it traverses my country, Holland, from SW to NE (I live near Rotterdam). For me who loves wild weather a Saturday to look forward to, but this thing could become objectively dangerous what with all the trees in full leaf.
35. vis0

i wonder if at a certain point in time as aGW rises higher and higher that "rising" in PPM becomes more of a slower rise but a more WIDER coverage as in a wider blanket than a ticker blanket.

In aGW (GCS...till 2060 then real aGW kicks in and ya think this is bad) reaching that WIDER COVERAGE level will Tropical Storms (("TS" or to me "pTwF":: Positive(+) Tropical Weather Formations) then become both stronger & more abundant as the ocean temperatures reach a high yet equalizing point .
In Dr. Masters Blogbyte's subject matter a TS  forming at tropical latitudes will be less frequent but much stronger BUT maybe the slack of not being as frequent will be picked up by TS forming more at higher latitudes as the oceans warm further polewards AND the ocean(s) REMAIN LEANING towards a warmer level. Then once those higher latitudes TS form, IF they travel towards the tropical latitudes will they then become stronger being they are already rotating (momentum) and have an opportunity to slurrrp up the warmer waters. i think what we see off the Carolina(s) as to "pTwF" might be a precursor, as the waters are not warm enough as to a long fetch area to create a nicely rotating warm core TS that can then re-curve as a stronger TS heading towards the SE, but just warming enough to give us a preview. Of course this is not a vis0 comment without me adding that the majeekal-dev ice in NYc also is having an affect.

Don't answer, this i just stubbed my toe and instead of cursing when i bump a part of my body if i'm near the keyboard i write out deep questions...or i say "Mother Flower". i find out in doing the aforementioned it takes away the pain "mentally" while also applying something cool(~cold) to relieve inflammation which helps lower physical aspect of the pain.
Quoting 33. LargoFl:

yes good luck to you folks, everything ive read so far,says the barrier islands will be the first to go.


The interactive maps we have are quite illuminating, with street-by-street graphics of which areas will be under water based on incremental rise. Fascinating, but scary.
And as anyone who works in beach nourishment knows, you don't "buy" sand, you "rent" it.

I've seen Dauphin Island inundated (washed over) a few times, too, over the past decade- and our customers
have told us the same thing, this wasn't happening so often a few decades ago.
39. JRRP
Current Conditions (Station reported 6 seconds ago)
93.2 °F
Feels Like 109.5 °F

Dew Point: 78 °F
Humidity: 62%

Feels Like 109.5 °F

I guess I should be glad it's not 119º...
Quoting 37. aquak9:

And as anyone who works in beach nourishment knows, you don't "buy" sand, you "rent" it.

I've seen Dauphin Island inundated (washed over) a few times, too, over the past decade- and our customers
have told us the same thing, this wasn't happening so often a few decades ago.


In the 60's and 70's the seawalls in towns north and south of Boston were each getting smashed up several times a decade. Now the prevalence is much lower and the storms are less frequent. Things change.
Hey Doc I have to question this Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming because in the Atlantic we have not had a Cat 5 hurricane since 2007 thus stronger storms well doesn't reall cut it
Quoting 14. LargoFl:

yes indeed,but at what point in time will people start really believing this is going to happen I wonder..my guess is, when a 2 foot sea level rise has officially happened.


I wondered too.

Historically the ocean rise is estimated to be 4-8 inches in the last 100 years.

The insurance companies, and it seems a lot of models, conservatively estimate a 3 foot rise in the next 100 years

To put that in down-to-earth terms, that's like 1 foot per 33 years? But really since it based on an accelerating rate, it may take 50 years to raise a foot, and then another 50 for the additional 2 feet? Land subsidence factors in too, so locally the rate could be higher.

I suspect that it will be like the 'part of town that goes bad'. Where people move because of the increased risk to their well-being and sell their houses at a reduced price. But someone will buy it until is uninhabitable. Meanwhile, most folks have moved on.






Subjects are broached. Walls are breached.
thanks ducky- good to hear other points of view, other geographical situations here.
Quoting 45. aquak9:

thanks ducky- good to hear other points of view, other geographical situations here.


You mentioned Dauphin Island, are you in Mobile?
Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:

Hey Doc I have to question this Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming because in the Atlantic we have not had a Cat 5 hurricane since 2007 thus stronger storms well doesn't reall cut it


check all the storms in all basins in the world that produce tropical storms and get back to us ..
Quoting 47. whitewabit:



check all the storms in all basins in the world that produce tropical storms and get back to us ..


With that image are you sure it's not Grothar incognito?
Quoting 47. whitewabit:



check all the storms in all basins in the world that produce tropical storms and get back to us ..


So this isnt a global reference?
Quoting 46. JustDucky251:



You mentioned Dauphin Island, are you in Mobile?

No, I'm in Jacksonville, FL.
Dauphin Island was just the first barrier island that I thought of, that I knew had been washed over some, in the past decade.
Does anyone know how SAR is doing? It was entertaining reading his comments, but he hasn't been here since he had the side effects from eye surgery, except maybe for one comment a week ago.
Quoting 47. whitewabit:



check all the storms in all basins in the world that produce tropical storms and get back to us ..


Overall in a global aspect yeah less storms but stronger storms
But if we did have stronger storms in the Atlantic as such as the Cat 5 the number would be even higher giving much mor concrete evidence

In a way it's kinda like one basin giving up on more powerful storm for more powerful storms in the other basin what is it like the greater good for storms
Quoting 43. DFWdad:



I wondered too.

Historically the ocean rise is estimated to be 4-8 inches in the last 100 years.

The insurance companies, and it seems a lot of models, conservatively estimate a 3 foot rise in the next 100 years

To put that in down-to-earth terms, that's like 1 foot per 33 years? But really since it based on an accelerating rate, it may take 50 years to raise a foot, and then another 50 for the additional 2 feet? Land subsidence factors in too, so locally the rate could be higher.

I suspect that it will be like the 'part of town that goes bad'. Where people move because of the increased risk to their well-being and sell their houses at a reduced price. But someone will buy it until is uninhabitable. Meanwhile, most folks have moved on.










I fear your analogy in the last paragraph most. Waiting for reactionary movement of people is probably the worst policy position the U.S. could take. On the individual level, waiting for that last big storm swell or heatwave or drought and then deciding to cut and run is a sure way to financial ruin, perhaps for your next generation too, as they absorb the associated costs to "rebuild" somewhere else.

However, generally speaking and with few exceptions, I suspect we will just sit and wait until there is a big "thing" that causes us to react.

I guess a well-funded, forward thinking person would be saving up for a retirement home in the most climate-stable spot they could find. I'm out of ideas.

We are a reactionary species anyway.
54. vis0
Quoting 8. ACSeattle:

"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'"
Isaac Asimov

How we overcome this, particularly when so many "leaders" are so willing to exploit it, I honestly don't know.
Reply @my zilly pg cmmnt#20
Quoting 18. SouthTampa:

They more than exploit it - it's their only means for existence in the political realm. They will perpetuate ignorance at all costs as they've built their livelihoods upon it.


Well if it were me, i would run for office myself. These higher thinkers should be able to figure out a way to fill the key seats
To what shear was and is now to what it will be in early to mid August I will say we will see a lot more activity in the Atlantic Caribbean and GOM in August

Quoting 21. Naga5000:



Well that's all part of the problem isn't it? The scientists use projections from models to try and forewarn so policy can be implemented to stave off the projection. Instead, we will do nothing and some even say it isn't real until 2 feet of water is the new norm, and by that point, it isn't stopping at 2 feet since there is a lag time involved.

On another note, I'm glad you are taking some time to look into what is happening and what has been projected to happen.


Yes, scientists use data to predict the future, yet Americans spend hundreds of millions of dollars consulting psychics and discount the science.

I guess most people don't want to hear negative things like, "hey, if you live on a barrier island, you have a good chance of losing your home in the next 50 years, so you should probably plan to move somewhere else" or, "if you live in the Pacific Northwest, you have a good chance of experiencing a massive earthquake and a following tsunami, so you should probably build your schools at higher elevations so your kids have a better chance to survive."

Someone needs to introduce a Global Warming tarot card... That might create a public outcry.
Quoting 52. wunderkidcayman:



Overall in a global aspect yeah less storms but stronger storms
But if we did have stronger storms in the Atlantic as such as the Cat 5 the number would be even higher giving much mor concrete evidence

In a way it's kinda like one basin giving up on more powerful storm for more powerful storms in the other basin what is it like the greater good for storms
I have a theory that the vorticity has been lacking in the lower levels of the atmosphere in the Atlantic Basin recently than in the Pacific Basin. We have a lot of upper level lows in the Atlantic as well which has been inhibiting development. As long as these upper level features continue it will be hard pressed to get anything strong in the Atlantic. I still believe we will get 1 or 2 Cape-Verde storms once we get near the peak of the hurricane season. With a strengthening El-Nino in the Pacific what we may get is a stronger severe weather season come Winter time, especially along the East Coast. We'll have the potential to see strong non-tropical lows form off of fronts, however, nothing as strong as a tropical system, but perhaps more widespread. Of course I won't rule out the possibility of a Hurricane Andrew in any given El-Nino hurricane season.
Quoting 53. ariot:




I fear your analogy in the last paragraph most. Waiting for reactionary movement of people is probably the worst policy position the U.S. could take. On the individual level, waiting for that last big storm swell or heatwave or drought and then deciding to cut and run is a sure way to financial ruin, perhaps for your next generation too, as they absorb the associated costs to "rebuild" somewhere else.

However, generally speaking and with few exceptions, I suspect we will just sit and wait until there is a big "thing" that causes us to react.

I guess a well-funded, forward thinking person would be saving up for a retirement home in the most climate-stable spot they could find. I'm out of ideas.

We are a reactionary species anyway.


I live 200 ft above sea level 10 miles inland. The people around me could care less about rising sea levels. When it's pointed out that downtown will be under water the answer is "Well they're going to move it west anyway to where most people live.'

The point I'm making is that for most Americans who don't live right on the coast Global warming doesn't seem like a problem. The fact that food production may charge dramatically hasn't yet sunk in. Until people think that nature is going to gore their ox, they aren't going to give a rat's ass.
Just noting (as I swelter here in Tallahassee with the hottest April-June-July temps ever recorded for this City) that heat records/heat waves keep getting broken in recent decades around the world. Parts of Europe are currently experiencing extreme heat and I also recall the heat wave in Russia a few years ago and certainly the US mid-West heat wave of 1995 which killed about 750 from heat related causes.

Just sayin that a few stronger tropical storms in any given season might be the least of our problems in the coming decades.............................
Quoting 56. wunderkidcayman:

To what shear was and is now to what it will be in early to mid August I will say we will see a lot more activity in the Atlantic Caribbean and GOM in August



Should we be trusting 384hr wind shear forecasts from the GFS?
Quoting 50. aquak9:


No, I'm in Jacksonville, FL.
Dauphin Island was just the first barrier island that I thought of, that I knew had been washed over some, in the past decade.


West End, Dauphin Island, Post Katrina 2005



Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Should we be trusting 384hr wind shear forecasts from the GFS?


:O
How dare you question the almighty, always-right GFS!

Ha! XD
Though I'm hoping the shear dies down a bit so TWs can do better and bring some rain to the islands.
Quoting 60. weathermanwannabe:

Just noting (as I swelter here in Tallahassee with the hottest April-June-July temps ever recorded for this City) that heat records/heat waves keep getting broken in recent decades around the world. Parts of Europe are currently experiencing extreme heat and I also recall the heat wave in Russia a few years ago and certainly the US mid-West heat wave of 1995 which killed about 750 from heat related causes.

Just sayin that a few stronger tropical storms in any given season might be the least of our problems in the coming decades.............................

Indeed. Drought, desertification and sea level rise threatening very populated areas like the Ganges delta are most acute. Sao Paulo, Bangladesh.
At the risk of sounding like an idiot to some on here, I think there is something to be said for "keep it simple stupid"when discussing climate science on any forum where you hope the average joe will listen. Some of the climate articles that i try to read are rejected by me halfway through because i simply dont understand the language. I suspect others like me wont get a masters to learn the language. It would be easier, if you are truly rying to get people to listen, to simplify it. I like the oven analogy that someone posted.
Quoting 66. K8eCane:

At the risk of sounding like an idiot to some on here, I think there is something to be said for "keep it simple stupid"when discussing climate science on any forum where you hope the average joe will listen. Some of the climate articles that i try to read are rejected by me halfway through because i simply dont understand the language. I suspect others like me wont get a masters to learn the language. It would be easier, if you are truly rying to get people to listen, to simplify it. I like the oven analogy that someone posted.


Try Skeptical Science out. They often have a "basic" and an "intermediate" levels to their discussions of various climate myths and they add on plenty of charts and graphs. I enjoy reading them whenever I look something up.

(I sound like a commercial)
Quoting 55. K8eCane:



Well if it were me, i would run for office myself. These higher thinkers should be able to figure out a way to fill the key seats

Somehow, power corrupts. It seems to really take something to rise in politics and keep integrity, is the weakest observation to make.
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Should we be trusting 384hr wind shear forecasts from the GFS?


The shear still looks unfavorable in the central to western Caribbean on the very reliable GFS 384hr.
Quoting 59. JustDucky251:



I live 200 ft above sea level 10 miles inland. The people around me could care less about rising sea levels. When it's pointed out that downtown will be under water the answer is "Well they're going to move it west anyway to where most people live.'

The point I'm making is that for most Americans who don't live right on the coast Global warming doesn't seem like a problem. The fact that food production may charge dramatically hasn't yet sunk in. Until people think that nature is going to gore their ox, they aren't going to give a rat's ass.


Well, I suspect that increasing insurance rates will eventually get the attention of potential coastal home buyers. FEMA is trying to recover its losses from Hurricane Sandy and Katrina, and affected property owners have certainly noticed that it has redrawn a lot of the coastal flooding maps. I know a person who bought a house at 28 feet elevation in Washington state with a loan this year, and was required by their bank to buy flood insurance because the house was at less than 30' elevation- probably a tsunami risk more than sea level rise. The initial bank quote was almost $8,000 per year, on a 100 year old house. I can't imagine what the cost is, or will be, on a typical Florida home at 1'.

It is interesting to meet people who live at higher elevations who have not thought about how goods and services will be provided if key low lying roads are flooded.
Quoting 70. Drakoen:



The shear still looks unfavorable in the central to western Caribbean on the very reliable GFS 384hr.


Shear Down-caster'
Quoting 70. Drakoen:



The shear still looks unfavorable in the central to western Caribbean on the very reliable GFS 384hr.


20-35kts is not as bad as it is now
Quoting 69. cRRKampen:


Somehow, power corrupts. It seems to really take something to rise in politics and keep integrity, is the weakest observation to make.


July 21, 2015 John Kasich: “We Shouldn’t Try To Fix Climate Change Because That’s The Creator’s Wish”




Climate Change
A scientific look at global change.


Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:


20-35kts is not as bad as it is now
Maybe not AS BAD but still too strong for anything to form. It may drop for a day or 2 and then strong shear takes over again.
Quoting 10. DCSwithunderscores:

New record all-time hottest temperatures are being reported at a few obscure European locations including Schaerding, Austria at 38.2 C / 100.8 F, Ronchi dei Legionari, Italy at 39.2 / 102.6, and Gradisca d'Isonzo, Italy at at least 40.0 C / 104.0 F.


Ah, reminds me of the new heatwave-roundup. Hope, you aren't bored yet and the heat will retreat soon! As far as I can see this heatwave is something special because of its endurance, combined with very high temperatures in the nights as well. So, as you may read in the reports from Croatia, the average temperatures and the duration are record breaking.

Czechs experiencing record-breaking heatwave
Czechs are experiencing a record-breaking heatwave. According to the Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute July 22nd was the warmest day of the year with the highest temperature recorded in Husinec-Rezi near Prague where afternoon highs reached 39.2 degrees Celsius. Temperature records were broken at 127 out of 138 monitoring stations around the country. The highest temperature ever recorded in the country was 40.4 degrees Celsius in the town of Dobrichovice on August 20th 2012.

Here some news (orginal in Croatian) from Croatia by Crometeo. Caution - the translation is from google:

Rijeka's glowing summer
On Wednesday, the new absolute temperature record for Rijeka dodged "narrowly". Measured 39.9C was only 0.1 C less than the maximum temperature measured in the history of measurements (40.0C, July 19, 2007.) However, the current heat wave passed, watching daily temperature, the hottest days in known history (of 1948). Of the five warmest days in Rijeka, three were in the last three days. It is a temperature record for daily temperature, even repaired to 1.5C.
The mean daily temperature on 22 July was 33.3C, on 21 July 32.8C. By this July the hottest day of Rijeka was 16 July 2010, with the average daily temperature of 31.8 ° C, and now is in third place. On 20 July 2015, the daily average temperature was 31.5C.
The mean daily temperature in Rijeka in the last two days (21 and 22 July 2015) was for more than ten degrees higher than the average of the period 1,961th to 1,990th
The last ten days (July 13 to 22, 2015) was the warmest ten-day period at the meteorological station Rijeka goats. The mean daily temperature in this period was 29.8C. So far, the warmest 10-day period in Rijeka recorded from 19th to 28th July 2006, with a mean temperature of 29.4C.


From a similar post, concerning whole Croatia, two days ago:
The current heat wave (at least for now) brought only two temperature records for the highest measured temperature (in Mali Losinj has set a new record for July, and in Kastel Novi absolute temperature record). However, thanks to a series of hot and very hot days, we now can call this heat wave a record. The second decade of July, which is also the central decades of climatological summer, in almost the whole country brought record heat, watching the average temperature for the period. ...

Southern Spain: Axarquia vineyards face huge losses in extreme heatwave
Maria Jose Fernandez, Axarquía - Costa Tropical, 23 July 2015
DIFFICULT times are ahead for vineyard owners in the Axarquia.
The Mesa de la Pasa, a forum attended by experts from the sector to discuss a variety of topics, has estimated that at least 50 per cent of the total production of Moscatel grapes has been lost due to the extreme and continued high temperatures registered in July.
This worrying news has been announced by representatives of the forum, the mayors of Almachar and El Borge, Jose Gamez and Salvador Fernandez respectively, who held a meeting this week with the goal of expressing their concern over the terrible consequences of this situation to the local and regional governments and administrations. ...


Scientists explain Swiss heatwave
23/07/2015 By Le News

French authorities warn parents to be vigilant after 115 drowning cases in over a month
The Telegraph, By David Chazan, Paris, 3:26PM BST 23 Jul 2015
Health authorities repeatedly sounded the alarm about the risk of drowning before a 12-year-old British schoolgirl died this week, with an average of three deaths a day since a heatwave began last month ...

Now with video: The military flies in water for thirsty Swiss cows
Wednesday, July 22, 2015, 20:58
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:



20-35kts is not as bad as it is now


We should anticipate that the TUTT will undergo climatological weakening and repositioning farther north beyond that is anyone's guess.
Quoting 78. Drakoen:



We should anticipate that the TUTT will undergo climatological weakening and repositioning farther north beyond that is anyone's guess.


Agreed

Quoting 76. stormwatcherCI:

Maybe not AS BAD but still too strong for anything to form. It may drop for a day or 2 and then strong shear takes over again.


Maybe or may even drop more by that time
Quoting 51. annabatic:

Does anyone know how SAR is doing? It was entertaining reading his comments, but he hasn't been here since he had the side effects from eye surgery, except maybe for one comment a week ago.


Havent seen or heard from him and I have emailed him.
Gro seems to be missing as well
PBWeather popped in briefly about two weeks ago, left a depressing post about his/her health and havent seen him/her on since either
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Should we be trusting 384hr wind shear forecasts from the GFS?


Both the GFS & CMC show shear relaxing somewhat in the long range across a large portion of the Atlantic (I'm not sure if the other models such as the UKMet/Euro do shear forecasts) and the NOAA also mention the possibility of shear relaxing:



If further eastward propagation of the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean materializes, vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic may relax, which would make conditions more conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. The potential for development across this region remains fairly low at this time, however, so no shape was depicted on this outlook.

Link

Plus there's climatology, so shear should decrease through August. Not saying there's going to be low shear across the entire basin or anything, but we should see less destructive shear than we've been seeing recently.
Quoting 36. flbeachgirl:



The interactive maps we have are quite illuminating, with street-by-street graphics of which areas will be under water based on incremental rise. Fascinating, but scary.

And all to real. In my opinion it will happen sooner than later..I do not want to see it happen . I was born and raised in South Florida..Love the islands and the Everglades, but the stats look grim.
I thought the "...Since moist air is less dense than dry air,..." was a typo so I spent a few seconds doing online research on the topic and BOOM -learned something new today :)
Meanwhile, The Eye of Sauron continues to lurk in the GOM.



Quoting 80. txjac:



Havent seen or heard from him and I have emailed him.
Gro seems to be missing as well
PBWeather popped in briefly about two weeks ago, left a depressing post about his/her health and havent seen him/her on since either


Yeah, I'm not sure it's a coincidence that a lot of the regular posters have been either dropping off or posting less and less. I wonder why?
Quoting 43. DFWdad:



I wondered too.

Historically the ocean rise is estimated to be 4-8 inches in the last 100 years.

The insurance companies, and it seems a lot of models, conservatively estimate a 3 foot rise in the next 100 years

To put that in down-to-earth terms, that's like 1 foot per 33 years? But really since it based on an accelerating rate, it may take 50 years to raise a foot, and then another 50 for the additional 2 feet? Land subsidence factors in too, so locally the rate could be higher.

I suspect that it will be like the 'part of town that goes bad'. Where people move because of the increased risk to their well-being and sell their houses at a reduced price. But someone will buy it until is uninhabitable. Meanwhile, most folks have moved on.







yes I think your right,this big sea level rise wont be happening for 50 years and maybe even longer, its why people today aren't concerned,who here right now..think they will be alive in 2100?..not many and its why, people really don't care outside of scientists and people who can gain something from it like Insurance companies etc..maybe in 2060 or so..those alive then and are young will indeed listen and plan etc..I sure hope so
Quoting 81. Envoirment:



Both the GFS & CMC show shear relaxing somewhat in the long range across a large portion of the Atlantic (I'm not sure if the other models such as the UKMet/Euro do shear forecasts) and the NOAA also mention the possibility of shear relaxing:



If further eastward propagation of the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean materializes, vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic may relax, which would make conditions more conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. The potential for development across this region remains fairly low at this time, however, so no shape was depicted on this outlook.

Link

Plus there's climatology, so shear should decrease through August. Not saying there's going to be low shear across the entire basin or anything, but we should see less destructive shear than we've been seeing recently.

However, a decrease in shear does not equate to low wind shear. I wouldn't expect any sustained period of favorable conditions for tropical development given the ongoing strong El Nino.
Quoting 62. Patrap:


West End, Dauphin Island, Post Katrina 2005

Some architects suggest a new "disaster-proof" style...
Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:

Hey Doc I have to question this Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming because in the Atlantic we have not had a Cat 5 hurricane since 2007 thus stronger storms well doesn't reall cut it


That's a good point, but the paper was about global tropical cyclones, of which the Atlantic makes up only about 10% of the activity. In addition, the period of study was 30 years, so the past 8 years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic doesn't show up as much as you might expect.

Jeff Masters
12z Euro running
up to 144 hours







CNN)—NASA said Thursday that its Kepler spacecraft has spotted "Earth's bigger, older cousin": the first nearly Earth-size planet to be found in the habitable zone of a star similar to our own.

Though NASA can't say for sure whether the planet is rocky like ours or has water and air, it's the closest match yet found.

"Today, Earth is a little less lonely," Kepler researcher Jon Jenkins said.

The planet, Kepler-452b, is about 1,400 light-years from Earth in the constellation Cygnus. It's about 60% bigger than Earth, NASA says, and is located in its star's habitable zone -- the region where life-sustaining liquid water is possible on the surface of a planet.
Good article on LiveScience about the Atlantic Ocean being the second largest ocean on Earth

33,400,000 square miles (86,505,603 square kilometers)

The world's second largest ocean, the Atlantic Ocean covers about 21 percent of Earth's surface. Separating North and South America from Europe and Africa, the Atlantic Ocean is the youngest of the world's present-day oceans, having formed in the Jurassic Period (about 200 million to 150 million years ago), according to the International Geology Review.

Located in the northern area of the Atlantic Ocean is the Bermuda Triangle, with its three points touching upon Miami, Bermuda and Puerto Rico. Also known as "the Devil's Triangle," the Bermuda Triangle is believed to be responsible for the mysterious disappearance of more than 50 ships and 20 airplanes over the past century, according to the U.S. Navy.

The Greek philosopher Plato wrote about a mythical island called Atlantis, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, on which lived a powerful empire that had been created by Poseidon, the God of the Sea.


168





Last frame..

Quoting 71. annabatic:

Well, I suspect that increasing insurance rates will eventually get the attention of potential coastal home buyers.
My homeowner's insurance went from ~$2,000 annually to over $7,000 three years ago. When I called the insurance company about this outrage, they told me it was because I had hurricane coverage and lived south of I-10 in Alabama. The rep. told me they would renew existing policies in my area, but would not write any new hurricane coverage, period.

I explained to him that, even though I was a couple of miles from Mobile Bay, I was 170' above MSL, so there was no flood risk. Didn't matter. South of I-10? Un-coverable. I asked why the change in their view of the business; he said it was because the big re-insurers of the world like Munich Re had decided they were pulling back from coastal area risks worldwide.
Would someone briefly explain some of the reasons why heat index values seem so very inflated on the WU site, and why they differ on the site from browser to browser, and so forth? That is, I know what is heat index is and more or less what factors it includes.  This is more of a site anomaly question.  
  • WU - IE - shows temp as 96.8, feels like 121
  • WU - Chrome - shows temp in same location as 97.2, feels like 124
  • TWC - IE - shows temp as 93, feels like 102
Thanx in advance for the info.
Quoting 59. JustDucky251:



I live 200 ft above sea level 10 miles inland. The people around me could care less about rising sea levels. When it's pointed out that downtown will be under water the answer is "Well they're going to move it west anyway to where most people live.'

The point I'm making is that for most Americans who don't live right on the coast Global warming doesn't seem like a problem. The fact that food production may charge dramatically hasn't yet sunk in. Until people think that nature is going to gore their ox, they aren't going to give a rat's ass.
I've talked to many non-coastal types who pretty much shrug and say, "So what?" when it's mentioned that in just a few decades we may lose most or parts of many of our largest coastal cities. "Why should I care?" they ask. "I live in Memphis." But that sort of answer shows a profound lack of insight into how things are tied together.

Imagine if "only" some of the lower estimates of sea level rise come to pass. Let's say, six feet by 2100 (though a growing number of experts predict it will be both more than that, and quicker). That six foot rise will displace many tens, and possibly hundreds, of millions of people, and ruin tens of trillions of dollars of infrastructure. Where are all those people going to move to? How will they afford new homes when they couldn't sell their old drowned ones? Where will they work? Who will foot the bill for all the new homes and offices and highways and airports and power plants that will need to be built to replace those lost to the seas? How and where will South Florida's tens of thousands of acres of productive farmland be replaced? And so on, and so on, and so on.

Damage from the 2011 Japanese earthquake ultimately cost around $300 billion, the largest financial loss ever. Even modest sea level rise is going to cost many dozens of times that--and if the worst projections come true, well, there's not enough money in the world to cover the bill.

Anyone who thinks rising sea levels are a problem only for those living along the coast is sorely mistaken. It's going to affect every one of us...
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:


However, a decrease in shear does not equate to low wind shear. I wouldn't expect any sustained period of favorable conditions for tropical development given the ongoing strong El Nino.


Which is why I typed out my last couple sentences. :p Not expecting much, perhaps something like Tropical Storm Dorian in 2013, although there's the potential for storms like Hurricane Eduoard/Gonzalo from last year given the above average waters in the subtropics.
OMG please stop!
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:

I've talked to many non-coastal types who pretty much shrug and say, "So what?" when it's mentioned that in just a few decades we may lose most or parts of many of our largest coastal cities. "Why should I care?" they ask. "I live in Memphis." But that sort of answer shows a profound lack of insight into how things are tied together.

Imagine if "only" some of the lower estimates of sea level rise come to pass. Let's say, six feet by 2100 (though a growing number of experts predict it will be both more than that, and quicker). That six foot rise will displace many tens, and possibly hundreds, of millions of people, and ruin tens of trillions of dollars of infrastructure. Where are all those people going to move to? How will they afford new homes when they couldn't sell their old drowned ones? Where will they work? Who will foot the bill for all the new homes and offices and highways and airports and power plants that will need to be built to replace those lost to the seas? How and where will South Florida's tens of thousands of acres of productive farmland be replaced? And so on, and so on, and so on.

Damage from the 2011 Japanese earthquake ultimately cost around $300 billion, the largest financial loss ever. Even modest sea level rise is going to cost many dozens of times that--and if the worst projections come true, well, there's not enough money in the world to cover the bill.

Anyone who thinks rising sea levels are a problem only for those living along the coast is sorely mistaken. It's going to affect every one of us...


The Yale Climate Opinion site has a very good demonstration of the concept being discussed.
"Global Warming is already harming people in the U.S." - Now/within 10 years 42%, 25 years+ or never 57%
"Global Warming will harm me personally." - Great/Moderate amount of harm 34%, Little to none at all 55%
"Global Warming will harm people in the U.S." - Great/Moderate amount of harm 51%, Little to none at all 39%
"Global Warming will harm future generations" - Great/Moderate amount of harm 61%, Little to none at all 26%
Link

It couldn't possibly happen to me, only to the other guy, and maybe down the road and to those generations.
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:

I've talked to many non-coastal types who pretty much shrug and say, "So what?" when it's mentioned that in just a few decades we may lose most or parts of many of our largest coastal cities. "Why should I care?" they ask. "I live in Memphis." But that sort of answer shows a profound lack of insight into how things are tied together.

Imagine if "only" some of the lower estimates of sea level rise come to pass. Let's say, six feet by 2100 (though a growing number of experts predict it will be both more than that, and quicker). That six foot rise will displace many tens, and possibly hundreds, of millions of people, and ruin tens of trillions of dollars of infrastructure. Where are all those people going to move to? How will they afford new homes when they couldn't sell their old drowned ones? Where will they work? Who will foot the bill for all the new homes and offices and highways and airports and power plants that will need to be built to replace those lost to the seas? How and where will South Florida's tens of thousands of acres of productive farmland be replaced? And so on, and so on, and so on.

Damage from the 2011 Japanese earthquake ultimately cost around $300 billion, the largest financial loss ever. Even modest sea level rise is going to cost many dozens of times that--and if the worst projections come true, well, there's not enough money in the world to cover the bill.

Anyone who thinks rising sea levels are a problem only for those living along the coast is sorely mistaken. It's going to affect every one of us...
I saw a map of a 10 foot sea level rise,now IF that ever happens we can kiss a lot of our Major cities all around the coastal usa goodby..NYC wash dc,you name it.....its a time when im glad I wont be alive to see it..maybe civilization as we know it today,wont be here anymore, just think of the huge global population movements away from the oceans, the lack of food stuffs,the riots and yes probably even wars...add to this, possibly more stronger hurricanes and droughts and whatever comes down the pike, im glad I wont be here to see it...the peace we now enjoy, the going to the supermarket with shelves jammed with foodstuffs...yes my friends its going to affect everything we know and do today...its why people today wont think about it..to horrible to imagine
Hmmm . . . this is interesting. I've been following Arctic Ocean sea ice area long enough to know that short term trends have very limited value when it comes to longer term predictions. But, this 'dive' is starting to look like it means business.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago
Cold N. Atl. forcing low heights. Effect upstream allows east coast troughs to drag => stalled fronts => TC genesis?
Quoting 66. K8eCane:

At the risk of sounding like an idiot to some on here, I think there is something to be said for "keep it simple stupid"when discussing climate science on any forum where you hope the average joe will listen. Some of the climate articles that i try to read are rejected by me halfway through because i simply dont understand the language. I suspect others like me wont get a masters to learn the language. It would be easier, if you are truly rying to get people to listen, to simplify it. I like the oven analogy that someone posted.


I don't disagree with this sentiment. However, at the same time I'm left wondering why some people hold global warming science to such a high degree of skepticism when they don't do the same with any other field (except perhaps vaccinations). Nobody ever demands that the science of cell phones be reduced to layman's terms. Nobody's ever refused to get on an A380 unless the pilot comes out and describes precisely how the fly-by-wire technology is going to work.

It's just interesting that people who so readily embrace science and scientific results in so many other parts of their lives suddenly turn into hostile skeptics once the topic turns to global warming.
Quoting 93. ncstorm:

Good article on LiveScience about the Atlantic Ocean being the second largest ocean on Earth

33,400,000 square miles (86,505,603 square kilometers)

The world's second largest ocean, the Atlantic Ocean covers about 21 percent of Earth's surface. Separating North and South America from Europe and Africa, the Atlantic Ocean is the youngest of the world's present-day oceans, having formed in the Jurassic Period (about 200 million to 150 million years ago), according to the International Geology Review.

Located in the northern area of the Atlantic Ocean is the Bermuda Triangle, with its three points touching upon Miami, Bermuda and Puerto Rico. Also known as "the Devil's Triangle," the Bermuda Triangle is believed to be responsible for the mysterious disappearance of more than 50 ships and 20 airplanes over the past century, according to the U.S. Navy.

The Greek philosopher Plato wrote about a mythical island called Atlantis, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, on which lived a powerful empire that had been created by Poseidon, the God of the Sea.


The Bermuda Triangle? Seriously?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

GAZ085-086-096>098-109-232000-
JOHNSON GA-DODGE GA-BLECKLEY GA-LAURENS GA-TREUTLEN GA-EMANUEL GA-
315 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON...NORTHERN DODGE...
BLECKLEY...LAURENS...TREUTLEN AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WRIGHTSVILLE TO NEAR COCHRAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
DUBLIN...SWAINSBORO...COCHRAN...SOPERTON...WRIGHT SVILLE...EAST
DUBLIN...TWIN CITY...CHESTER...ADRIAN...DEXTER...DUDLEY...CADWEL L...
RENTZ...MONTROSE...NUNEZ...TUCKERS CROSSROAD...COVENA...MEEKS...
ROCKLEDGE AND BARNHILL.

LAT...LON 3229 8268 3231 8272 3220 8286 3219 8288
3218 8287 3216 8290 3234 8343 3237 8346
3273 8286 3263 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 282DEG 26KT 3265 8279 3235 8329

$$

It couldn't possibly happen to me, only to the other guy, and maybe down the road and to those generations.


The question now is how do we convince the average inlander that the problem is theirs too. If their opinions were to change then maybe legislators would take it more seriously. It is incumbent on all of us who know that GW is real to figure out a way to educate the rest. It doesn't matter what percentage of GW one sees as anthropogenic. GW is real. My father was sent out to investigate it's effect on Alaskan glaciers nearly 70 years ago. And before that the Air Force had him looking into it on the glaciers in Greenland. It is real.
Quoting 109. JustDucky251:



The question now is how do we convince the average inlander that the problem is theirs too. If their opinions were to change then maybe legislators would take it more seriously. It is incumbent on all of us who know that GW is real to figure out a way to educate the rest. It doesn't matter what percentage of GW one sees as anthropogenic. GW is real. My father was sent out to investigate it's effect on Alaskan glaciers nearly 70 years ago. And before that the Air Force had him looking into it on the glaciers in Greenland. It is real.
I think the problem of convincing inlanders is that the main emphasis so far has been on sea level rise as an effect of a warming climate. This in my view is the least dangerous effect -- the populátion inland will be more severely affected by increased heat, droughts and floods, agricultural shifts due to the preceding, and population movements due to all of them including sea level rise. The changes in food availability alone will be significant and will affect all, even the wealthy (though they'll be more able to shrug it off). China, India, and the Middle East are three potential hot spots for food scarcities, but all will be affected and so will security. The tip of the iceberg has begun to show larger and the 9/10 below the surface must be dealt with too.
Quoting 106. MaineGuy:




It's just interesting that people who so readily embrace science and scientific results in so many other parts of their lives suddenly turn into hostile skeptics once the topic turns to global warming.


I believe it has to do with the perception that AGW mitigation is going to "cost" them a lot of money. I think we need to start talking in terms of quantifying cost and bringing it down to the individual level. I know that's a tough task, but it will help put things in proper perspective.

I for one accept the scientific findings, but it's time to start putting dollars to possible solutions.
Quoting 109. JustDucky251:



The question now is how do we convince the average inlander that the problem is theirs too. If their opinions were to change then maybe legislators would take it more seriously. It is incumbent on all of us who know that GW is real to figure out a way to educate the rest. It doesn't matter what percentage of GW one sees as anthropogenic. GW is real. My father was sent out to investigate it's effect on Alaskan glaciers nearly 70 years ago. And before that the Air Force had him looking into it on the glaciers in Greenland. It is real.


Communication has and will always be a problem. I'm not sure what the solution is, but I know why some people reject science. It's a funny duality to have, to know why and at the same time be helpless to solve the problem, but anyways, how you "convince" most people is by showing them how it directly impacts them, which is what we have been getting at today. When the social and economic costs of carbon impact your life, then you start to take notice, until then, it's all far removed for most. (And this isn't to place blame on those people who cannot make the connection, it's just the reality.)
I wonder if when TS Felicia dissipates, the final advisory will say "Bye Felicia" with that sassy emoji next to it
Quoting 104. yonzabam:

Hmmm . . . this is interesting. I've been following Arctic Ocean sea ice area long enough to know that short term trends have very limited value when it comes to longer term predictions. But, this 'dive' is starting to look like it means business.




I was saying last night, the end of July is forecast to be a huge drop, couple that with the late melt out's of normally ice free locations like Hudson Bay, we are going to make a real run for the record this year.
Just like yesterday afternoon; those pop-up afternoon t-storms are starting to light up the SE. At least they cool us down for a bit.............


Southeast sector loop
Quoting 83. hydrus:


And all to real. In my opinion it will happen sooner than later..I do not want to see it happen . I was born and raised in South Florida..Love the islands and the Everglades, but the stats look grim.


I was as a project manager for Everglades restoration and worked closely with one of the teams of scientists who developed some of the SLR models for the DoD. The projections I saw come out of that group were truly heartbreaking. We were working so hard to make improvements to the Everglades and the water conservation areas, but we knew if the projections played out all that work wouldn't matter in the long run.
Quoting 111. Greg01:



I believe it has to do with the perception that AGW mitigation is going to "cost" them a lot of money. I think we need to start talking in terms of quantifying cost and bringing it down to the individual level. I know that's a tough task, but it will help put things in proper perspective perspective.

I for one accept the scientific findings, but it's time to start putting dollars to possible solutions.


You're right. That's the recurring theme amongst so many climate change deniers -- the belief that this is all going to hit their wallet and/or their liberty. That it's all about additional costs being imposed upon them for vague and undefined benefits.

There's no denying that people will rationalize away a problem they don't want to deal with for as long as they can possibly get away with it.

To me, however, the "cost" issue is simply a matter of pointing out two things: 1) the cost of inaction will be exponentially worse; and 2) the cost of acting might not be nearly as much as many people think. Alot of it's just lifestyle changes, shifts in investment and development, and a general embrace of newer technology over old. Do you hear anyone bellyaching, for example, about the massive costs associated with bringing 4G technology to the US? Are people up in arms over the cost of replacing landline phones with smartphones? Or of building all those roads that we drive on that replaced the horse tracks and canals and streetcar lines that earlier generations went to all that trouble building, often at great public expense?
LOL
Quoting 113. FutureWx6221:

I wonder if when TS Felicia dissipates, the final advisory will say "Bye Felicia" with that sassy emoji next to it
I must say the climate change discussions regarding sea level rise, etc... have been pleasant today and quite informative. Thanks to all for the civility and exchange of information and ideas.

Nothing to report here locally. Plentiful sunshine and quite hot. The cicada killer wasps that have taken up their annual refuge in my lawn don't seem to mind.
Rising sea levels? Ahhh, well at least I'll live closer to the beach.......
Quoting 81. Envoirment:



Both the GFS & CMC show shear relaxing somewhat in the long range across a large portion of the Atlantic (I'm not sure if the other models such as the UKMet/Euro do shear forecasts) and the NOAA also mention the possibility of shear relaxing:



If further eastward propagation of the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean materializes, vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic may relax, which would make conditions more conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. The potential for development across this region remains fairly low at this time, however, so no shape was depicted on this outlook.

Link

Plus there's climatology, so shear should decrease through August. Not saying there's going to be low shear across the entire basin or anything, but we should see less destructive shear than we've been seeing recently.


Yah I saw that in NOAAs outlook it will be interesting to see

Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:


However, a decrease in shear does not equate to low wind shear. I wouldn't expect any sustained period of favorable conditions for tropical development given the ongoing strong El Nino.


Ok let look at it again with a focus on some key words

If further eastward propagation of the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean materializes, vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic may relax, which would make conditions more conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. The potential for development across this region remains fairly low at this time, however, so no shape was depicted on this outlook.

So yeah I think it would equate

Quoting 90. JeffMasters:



That's a good point, but the paper was about global tropical cyclones, of which the Atlantic makes up only about 10% of the activity. In addition, the period of study was 30 years, so the past 8 years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic doesn't show up as much as you might expect.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Doc I was really looking forward to your answer to this
Quoting 86. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, I'm not sure it's a coincidence that a lot of the regular posters have been either dropping off or posting less and less. I wonder why?


Hurricane MODE!
Quoting 120. HimacaneBrees:

Rising sea levels? Ahhh, well at least I'll live closer to the beach.......


I'm taking reservations for my downtown Orlando beachfront bed and breakfast. Book now, rooms are going fast!
Quoting 117. MaineGuy:


You're right. That's the recurring theme amongst so many climate change deniers -- the belief that this is all going to hit their wallet and/or their liberty. That it's all about additional costs being imposed upon them for vague and undefined benefits.

There's no denying that people will rationalize away a problem they don't want to deal with for as long as they can possibly get away with it.

To me, however, the "cost" issue is simply a matter of pointing out two things: 1) the cost of inaction will be exponentially worse; and 2) the cost of acting might not be nearly as much as many people think. Alot of it's just lifestyle changes, shifts in investment and development, and a general embrace of newer technology over old. Do you hear anyone bellyaching, for example, about the massive costs associated with bringing 4G technology to the US? Are people up in arms over the cost of replacing landline phones with smartphones? Or of building all those roads that we drive on that replaced the horse tracks and canals and streetcar lines that earlier generations went to all that trouble building, often at great public expense?


I agree with you, but remember - when we went from dial-up to DSL, we knew how much we were going to pay for the new technology. The cable/phone companies had already calculated their cost of upgrading technology and brought it down to an individual level in terms of our monthly cost.

We tend to embrace new technologies once we have a good handle on their cost. Just my 2 cents, I don't claim to speak for anyone else here.
Greetings, from very nice-weathered souther Caribbean.

In the meantime, the Authorities has raised the level of concern to "orange" on Kick-Em Jenny", an undersea volcano just off the coast of Grenada.
This comes a week after a series of 'quakes just NE of Barbados (6.2 was the strongest) .
Kick--Em Jenny has been acting up over the last couple years, with the dome growing.
And yesterday there were tremors, gas emissions, and this has raised the concerns of the people monitoring it.

The main concern, even with a relatively small eruption, is the possibility of Tsunamis being generated.
Quoting 123. Naga5000:



I'm taking reservations for my downtown Orlando beachfront bed and breakfast. Reserve now, rooms are going fast!


Are you trying to rent "underwater" real estate? I have 150 Acres between Baton Rouge and Hammond La.. If things continue as scientists say, then I'll own some prime ocean front property in the coming years. I'm looking for investors now. =-)
127. ariot
Quoting 59. JustDucky251:



I live 200 ft above sea level 10 miles inland. The people around me could care less about rising sea levels. When it's pointed out that downtown will be under water the answer is "Well they're going to move it west anyway to where most people live.'

The point I'm making is that for most Americans who don't live right on the coast Global warming doesn't seem like a problem. The fact that food production may charge dramatically hasn't yet sunk in. Until people think that nature is going to gore their ox, they aren't going to give a rat's ass.


I should have used a different pronoun. But yeah, I was talking about large groups of people deciding they will move after a specific event. Those abrupt decisions to abandon an area are problematic for everyone in one way or another.

I've lived below sea level, at sea level and up in the hills. Right now I'm at about 15' above on the Chesapeake/Susquehanna. Needless to say, I'm renting. :-)
Quoting 111. Greg01:
I believe it has to do with the perception that AGW mitigation is going to "cost" them a lot of money. I think we need to start talking in terms of quantifying cost and bringing it down to the individual level. I know that's a tough task, but it will help put things in proper perspective.

I for one accept the scientific findings, but it's time to start putting dollars to possible solutions.
A revenue-neutral carbon tax--where money collected goes into a fund that cuts a check every year to every adult who files a tax return--seems like the simplest and least objectionable way to dis-incentivize fossil fuel use.

Taxing fossil fuels to pay for their destructive externalities would level the playing field with renewable energy sources, technologies that have miniscule impact on the climate, by comparison. Users would have the choice of spending their tax rebate checks on more fossil fueled power--essentially giving the money back--or changing their consumption habits in ways that help them avoid the tax and keep the money. Power utilities would be able to keep rates competitive by converting as much as possible to renewable generation and avoiding the tax.
Quoting 125. pottery:

Greetings, from very nice-weathered souther Caribbean.

In the meantime, the Authorities has raised the level of concern to "orange" on Kick-Em Jenny", an undersea volcano just off the coast of Grenada.
This comes a week after a series of 'quakes just NE of Barbados (6.2 was the strongest) .
Kick--Em Jenny has been acting up over the last couple years, with the dome growing.
And yesterday there were tremors, gas emissions, and this has raised the concerns of the people monitoring it.

The main concern, even with a relatively small eruption, is the possibility of Tsunamis being generated.
I,d watch it too...specially with that name.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNlMzNUDM8s


This song may not mean the same thing in the future....lol.
131. bwi
Quoting 104. yonzabam:

Hmmm . . . this is interesting. I've been following Arctic Ocean sea ice area long enough to know that short term trends have very limited value when it comes to longer term predictions. But, this 'dive' is starting to look like it means business.




Agreed. OK, you know you're a geek when you enjoy watching ice melt. I notice that the current extent has now hit the 1980s average minimum (which occurs in September). Next up will be the 1990s avg minimum, then the 2000s...
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html? N

My prediction at the beginning of the melt season was that we'd end up with a pattern similar to 2007 with a late minimum, but a bit higher than 2007 maybe with the minimum around 2011. Maybe 3rd or 4th lowest ever. So much depends on the weather though. Another big storm at the end of the season like 2012 and we could test that year's record low. The Canadian Archipelago has had above average temps all month and I think we'll see the NW passage open wide later this year (the northern sea route around Siberia is almost open now I think). On the other hand, some years have leveled off pretty much by August and not dropped much more. We'll see!
Quoting 101. Naga5000:



The Yale Climate Opinion site has a very good demonstration of the concept being discussed.
"Global Warming is already harming people in the U.S." - Now/within 10 years 42%, 25 years+ or never 57%
"Global Warming will harm me personally." - Great/Moderate amount of harm 34%, Little to none at all 55%
"Global Warming will harm people in the U.S." - Great/Moderate amount of harm 51%, Little to none at all 39%
"Global Warming will harm future generations" - Great/Moderate amount of harm 61%, Little to none at all 26%
Link

It couldn't possibly happen to me, only to the other guy, and maybe down the road and to those generations.


Quite interesting. In the category of "Risk Perceptions", it seems there is a disconnect between some of the answers when compared to other questions in the group. Seems only 34% believe that global warming will harm me personally, the percentage went up to 52% when asked if they were worried about global warming. Then when asked if it will harm future generations the percentage goes up to 61%. This is statistically significant. My take away from this study is that this is not a problem now, but will be one in the future. Maybe we aren't doing enough to emphasize that this is a problem now that people can relate to. And to those that say we are screaming about the problem, please step back and remember this important element in human behavior. It's not what you say, but how you say it.
With a strengthening El-Nino in the Pacific this will be the theme the rest of the season I would expect heavy rainfall events leading to flooding from stationary fronts and troughs of low pressure.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
328 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST...

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY.

FLZ142-148-242-248-241400-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0003.150724T1200Z-150725T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...
HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
328 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF FL...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...COASTAL CITRUS...COASTAL HERNANDO...INLAND CITRUS AND
INLAND HERNANDO.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* A FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH
CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

Quoting 119. StAugustineFL:

I must say the climate change discussions regarding sea level rise, etc... have been pleasant today and quite informative. Thanks to all for the civility and exchange of information and ideas.

Nothing to report here locally. Plentiful sunshine and quite hot. The cicada killer wasps that have taken up their annual refuge in my lawn don't seem to mind.


Totally agree. Has me wondering where to advise my daughter to live when she settles down.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
417 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

GAZ105-107>109-232045-
DODGE GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
417 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DODGE...NORTHWESTERN
WILCOX...DOOLY AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PINEHURST...OR NEAR VIENNA...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HAWKINSVILLE...VIENNA...UNADILLA...PINEVIEW...PIN EHURST...LILLY...
HARTFORD...CEDAR CREEK...POPE CITY...WALLACE...OCMULGEE BANKS...
TIPPETTVILLE...PLEASANT VIEW...MOCK SPRINGS AND FINLEYSON.

LAT...LON 3205 8391 3225 8386 3229 8338 3218 8326
3202 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 271DEG 24KT 3216 8373

$$
136. bwi
Quoting 128. AdamReith:

A revenue-neutral carbon tax--where money collected goes into a fund that cuts a check every year to every adult who files a tax return--seems like the simplest and least objectionable way to dis-incentivize fossil fuel use.

Taxing fossil fuels to pay for their destructive externalities would level the playing field with renewable energy sources, technologies that have miniscule impact on the climate, by comparison. Users would have the choice of spending their tax rebate checks on more fossil fueled power--essentially giving the money back--or changing their consumption habits in ways that help them avoid the tax and keep the money. Power utilities would be able to keep rates competitive by converting as much as possible to renewable generation and avoiding the tax.


It would be really quite easy to do this -- almost like the way Alaskans get a check every year from the oil company fund. If you use an average amount of carbon-based fuel, you break even. Use more, you lose money, use less you gain money. I have an unfair advantage, since I ride my bike everywhere now I'd probably come out way ahead!
Oh what does the future have in store.....Curious as it looks like we'll be heading into uncharted territory with this El Nino. Also curious what effect the increased Nward extent of the warm pacific waters will have, if any.
Quoting 132. MrNatural:



Quite interesting. In the category of "Risk Perceptions", it seems there is a disconnect between some of the answers when compared to other questions in the group. Seems only 34% believe that global warming will harm me personally, the percentage went up to 52% when asked if they were worried about global warming. Then when asked if it will harm future generations the percentage goes up to 61%. This is statistically significant. My take away from this study is that this is not a problem now, but will be one in the future. Maybe we aren't doing enough to emphasize that this is a problem now that people can relate to. And to those that say we are screaming about the problem, please step back and remember this important element in human behavior. It's not what you say, but how you say it.

"Maybe we aren't doing enough to emphasize that this is a problem now that people can relate to. "

No, we are not doing enough to communicate that this is a problem.

"And to those that say we are screaming about the problem, please step back and remember this important element in human behavior. It's not what you say, but how you say it."

I have been able to make some very small time headway with family, close friends and some former business associates and influencing personal and business decisions.

But here is the bottom line..... we were sold the Kardashians, we were sold Caitlyn Jenner to the point of a nomination for an Espy award. Miley Cyrus is hosting some award show. Can somebody please convince me that we do not have the brainpower to put together some sort of marketing campaign that will get the attention of someone in Memphis, TN or Webster Springs, W. VA or Pocatello, Idaho regarding AGW and how it will affect them directly.
Parched SFL can't catch a break. The afternoon storms help a bit but surely not a drought buster. May have to look out east in the future for relief.
142. FOREX
The Weather Channel tropical expert mentioned maybe some Gulf development next Tuesday or so.
Quoting 139. AreadersinceWilma:


"Maybe we aren't doing enough to emphasize that this is a problem now that people can relate to. "

No, we are not doing enough to communicate that this is a problem.

"And to those that say we are screaming about the problem, please step back and remember this important element in human behavior. It's not what you say, but how you say it."

I have been able to make some very small time headway with family, close friends and some former business associates and influencing personal and business decisions.

But here is the bottom line..... we were sold the Kardashians, we were sold Caitlyn Jenner to the point of a nomination for an Espy award. Miley Cyrus is hosting some award show. Can somebody please convince me that we do not have the brainpower to put together some sort of marketing campaign that will get the attention of someone in Memphis, TN or Webster Springs, W. VA or Pocatello, Idaho regarding AGW and how it will affect them directly.


Some more thoughts. Religious background does play an important role in many of the opinions that the population formulates. Working with the pulpit holds many answers to the way Americans think. Also, the "All-American" notion that we can solve our problems through technology is a tough nut to crack. As people become more removed from society because of technology, there are less people who care to take the time to address this problem.
Quoting 109. JustDucky251:



The question now is how do we convince the average inlander that the problem is theirs too.

Just tell them about all those folks from the coast who will be moving in next to them ;)
Gonna head out for the PM and hope everyone has a safe weather evening. As a blogger mentioned a few weeks ago; It's Jurrasic hot in many parts of the world right now and we are going into a very strong El Nino.

Anything could happen between now and the end of the year............................................. :)
M 4.9 - 135km E of Great Swan Island, Honduras
Time
2015-07-23 20:22:40 UTC
Location
17.593°N 82.666°W
Depth
12.0 km
Quoting 136. bwi:



It would be really quite easy to do this -- almost like the way Alaskans get a check every year from the oil company fund. If you use an average amount of carbon-based fuel, you break even. Use more, you lose money, use less you gain money. I have an unfair advantage, since I ride my bike everywhere now I'd probably come out way ahead!
This plan seems great but when new taxes are imposed no tax payer gains. Perhaps you'll not pay AS MUCH as others, but what about the distribution companies that use carbon spewing 18 wheelers to deliver your food to your local grocery store? You may very well be an honest person, but many in gov are not, so don't just assume all propositions out of DC or the UN to save the earth by imposing additional taxes will save your wallet or your planet.
Afternoon all ... how many COASTAL dwellers are taking the sea rise potential seriously? I'm thinking about the article someone posted earlier in the week which highlighted the reason why some NC dwellers, especially those on the OBX, are rejecting CC legislation. These people don't want to focus on the possibility of dramatic sea rise because it cuts their home equity right now. Admitting that your prime beachfront property will likely be 6 feet beneath the ocean in your greatgrandchildren's time doesn't do much for that property value now....

In The Bahamas, where 40% of our land area is likely to disappear in the next 100 years due to AGW, pretty much nothing is being done to reduce carbon emissions etc. Solarization is taking place because people are tired of paying high electricity bills, not because people hope to save their property for future generations. I'll bet attitudes aren't much different in other parts of the world ....
Since the Atlantic tropical storms are more energetic, I believe that this contributes to the storms heading northward sooner than before, as we've seen recently. I'd appreciate a comment on this...
junojim@msn.com


Central Asia Floods Reawaken Glacier Anxieties


Floods across Central Asia over this past week are highlighting the perils of failing to adopt robust water-management measures and put adequate early-warning systems in place.

Tajikistan has been the worst hit, with abnormally high temperatures causing rapid snow and glacier melts. The country is 93 percent covered by high mountains, making it particularly vulnerable to landslides and flash floods. Dozens of homes have been destroyed and at least a dozen people killed. ......................................
“This year, the summer has been very hot. The anomalous temperatures have lasted for 10-12 days,” Bekbolov said, adding that freezing temperatures were only being registered at altitudes as high 4,800 meters. “This has had a strong effect on high-altitude glaciers and led to them melting.”


Link

It's Jurrasic hot
Quoting 133. GTstormChaserCaleb:

With a strengthening El-Nino in the Pacific this will be the theme the rest of the season I would expect heavy rainfall events leading to flooding from stationary fronts and troughs of low pressure.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
328 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST...

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY.

FLZ142-148-242-248-241400-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0003.150724T1200Z-150725T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...
HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
328 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF FL...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...COASTAL CITRUS...COASTAL HERNANDO...INLAND CITRUS AND
INLAND HERNANDO.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* A FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS BOTH
CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.




I respectfully disagree with the official forecast, in that I think rainfall totals could be just as heavy across Tampa Bay coastal areas. Model guidance often seems to have a northward bias cutoff, the event last week worked that way as well, official rainfall forecasts had the heaviest rain mainly from Hernando and Citrus northward, but the heaviest totals ended up extending from those areas well into Pinellas and the Tampa Bay area. I'm thinking there's no reason it won't be the same case this time as well.

I suspect the bias might be due to the fact that fronts are expected to remain north of the region, but actually, it's not as unusual as one might think for summer cold fronts to stall in Central FL. Although I suspect we are beginning to see a trend that may continue throughout much of the rest of the rainy season, in that we will see periodic heavy rain events with frontal troughs instead of tropical wave rain events from a SE flow. If we keep seeing one of these events every week Flooding will become a big concern.
Last night's United Launch Alliance Delta 4 rocket carrying the Air Force’s WGS 7 communications spacecraft.launch was rescheduled for tonight due to weather. The sea breezes and boundaries collided already, rain is diminishing as the atmosphere stabilizes. Still too cloudy to see the launch from here. The go has been given to chill the upper stage O2 tank in advance of filling it. Launch window is 8:07 to 8:46 p.m. EDT. Live coverage is here.
At least 46 areas in Sindh declared sensitive to floods

However, the floods have caused immense damages. Crops grown on lacs of acres of land in Layyah, Dera Ghazi Khan, Muzaffargarh and southern Punjab have been destroyed. Thousands of families have lost their sources of income and homes as hundreds of villages have been washed away so far.

However, Pakistan Army is continuing relief operations in flood-hit areas.

In Layyah, at least 380 localities have been demolished leaving 56,000 families homeless. Sugarcane and cotton crops spread across at least 2 lac acres have been quashed.


Link
Quoting 140. ProgressivePulse:

Parched SFL can't catch a break. The afternoon storms help a bit but surely not a drought buster. May have to look out east in the future for relief.


So what do you think about the possible development in and around Florida or the Southeast next week?
This date 46 years ago the Crew of Apollo 11 was about 12 hours to re-entry and splashdown in the Pacific.

The Earth was Quickly getting larger in the windows,..



Getting dumped on pretty good...

Quoting 41. JustDucky251:



In the 60's and 70's the seawalls in towns north and south of Boston were each getting smashed up several times a decade. Now the prevalence is much lower and the storms are less frequent. Things change.


SoCal seems to be back in a stunning weather pattern I last saw in the 70s with relatively cool summers when I first moved here. We are generally having highs in the 80s in Inland Orange County so far this summer. Sure beats that 90s/100s stuff. I read something about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation kicking in which is about the right timing.
Megafauna extinction: DNA evidence pins blame on climate change

But the real culprit, he says, is climate change.

Cooper and colleagues have simultaneously produced an unprecedentedly accurate map and timeline of changes in megafauna populations around Eurasia and North America, and precisely matched that timeline up with ancient climate records.

It punches a hole in a key argument of the prosecution. This states that climate cannot have caused megafauna extinctions because it has changed so much over the past 60,000 years. There were lots of warm and cool periods – interglacial and glacial epochs, respectively. If climate change is the real megafauna killer, why did the animals survive those events only to die when humans turned up in their region?

The new data show that they did not survive. Megafauna extinctions were actually relatively common during the past 60,000 years whether humans were around or not.


Link
Megafauna extinction: DNA evidence pins blame on climate change

The team were surprised by another finding that emerged: it wasn’t the long cold periods that wiped out megafauna, as some have suggested – it was warming.

“What we found, which we were staggered by: no matter how we analysed the data, abrupt warmings drove the extinctions or the replacements,” says team member Chris Turney of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.

It is most likely that warming was such a killer because it arrives rapidly – temperatures change far more abruptly than they do at the onset of a cooling period, says Cooper.


Link
Bye Felicia.

Quoting 160. ColoradoBob1:

Megafauna extinction: DNA evidence pins blame on climate change

The team were surprised by another finding that emerged: it wasn’t the long cold periods that wiped out megafauna, as some have suggested – it was warming.

“What we found, which we were staggered by: no matter how we analysed the data, abrupt warmings drove the extinctions or the replacements,” says team member Chris Turney of the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.

It is most likely that warming was such a killer because it arrives rapidly – temperatures change far more abruptly than they do at the onset of a cooling period, says Cooper.


Link

Great post. Thanks.
The low is developing and is at the NC/SC border, it should be off the coast after midnight.
Quoting 125. pottery:

Greetings, from very nice-weathered souther Caribbean.

In the meantime, the Authorities has raised the level of concern to "orange" on Kick-Em Jenny", an undersea volcano just off the coast of Grenada.
This comes a week after a series of 'quakes just NE of Barbados (6.2 was the strongest) .
Kick--Em Jenny has been acting up over the last couple years, with the dome growing.
And yesterday there were tremors, gas emissions, and this has raised the concerns of the people monitoring it.

The main concern, even with a relatively small eruption, is the possibility of Tsunamis being generated.


And greetings from another Caribbean island!

It's an 86 feeling like 94, partly cloudy kind of early evening around here. You know, in addition to the waking up of "Jenny", my phone alerts have been ringing at a ridiculous pace with the number of earthquakes between here, the USVI; the BVI and Puerto Rico.

This is the alert I received on my phone while sitting at the local bar for a cool one after work:

"Alert / Warning

Geophysical - Volcano

...This is an ACTUAL VOLCANO ALERT...

Headline: Kick 'Em Jenny Volcanic Activity

Activation Time: 07/23/15 5:28 PM

Expiration Time: 07/23/15 11:59 PM

Issued By: VITEMA

Affected Jurisdictions: St. Croix Island (All)
St. John Island (All)
St. Thomas Island (All)
Water Island (All)

Description:
On Thursday, the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (SRC) reported that from 1:25 am to 3 am, a strong continuous signal was observed on instruments monitoring the Kick ‘em Jenny underwater volcano. According to the center, signs of elevated seismic activity (earthquakes) began on July 11 and has continued throughout the day today. There have also been observations from divers of degassing occurring off the west coast of Grenada in the Moliniere Sculpture Park area. This activity is being closely monitored by the UWI-SRC and further updates would be issued as more information becomes available.

Instructions:
NOAA's National Tsunami Warning Center and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center are currently monitoring the seismic activity and sea level stations near the volcano. According to the centers, there is NO imminent threat of tsunami generation to the US Virgin Islands."

Suffice it to say that the mouthful of beverage I had at the time went down in a big "gulp" as I'd never received one of these before!

Drought, earthquakes, volcano....what next???

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
NAM has 2 systems , the second system forming at the tail of the front.
166. JRRP
12z UKMET
Quoting 165. Climate175:

NAM has 2 systems , the second system forming at the tail of the front.


I think the stronger low if we have one develops in the Atlantic, but there is still plenty of energy for North and Central Florida and the Gulf to deal with.
Quoting 139. AreadersinceWilma:


"Maybe we aren't doing enough to emphasize that this is a problem now that people can relate to. "

No, we are not doing enough to communicate that this is a problem.

"And to those that say we are screaming about the problem, please step back and remember this important element in human behavior. It's not what you say, but how you say it."

I have been able to make some very small time headway with family, close friends and some former business associates and influencing personal and business decisions.

But here is the bottom line..... we were sold the Kardashians, we were sold Caitlyn Jenner to the point of a nomination for an Espy award. Miley Cyrus is hosting some award show. Can somebody please convince me that we do not have the brainpower to put together some sort of marketing campaign that will get the attention of someone in Memphis, TN or Webster Springs, W. VA or Pocatello, Idaho regarding AGW and how it will affect them directly.


I'll put my money where my mouth is and chip in $100 to help start a pilot marketing campaign that speaks to the great unwashed majority and helps turn minds toward reality.
Quoting 125. pottery:

Greetings, from very nice-weathered souther Caribbean.

In the meantime, the Authorities has raised the level of concern to "orange" on Kick-Em Jenny", an undersea volcano just off the coast of Grenada.
This comes a week after a series of 'quakes just NE of Barbados (6.2 was the strongest) .
Kick--Em Jenny has been acting up over the last couple years, with the dome growing.
And yesterday there were tremors, gas emissions, and this has raised the concerns of the people monitoring it.

The main concern, even with a relatively small eruption, is the possibility of Tsunamis being generated.


Where exactly is this volcano? The USGS 7 day earthquake map shows two clusters north of the Virgin Islands.
Quoting 169. SLU:

%u201CGlobal Warming%u201D Expedition Foiled by Record Ice

July 22, 2015


A scientific expedition to study %u201Cglobal warming%u201D was delayed by record ice in the Arctic.

The icebreaker ship used for the 115-day expedition had to be rerouted Tuesday to break ice for commercial ships in the Hudson Bay because the ice conditions are the worst they%u2019ve been in 20 years, according to the Canadian Coast Guard.<



Yes, this is the newest misrepresentation. Hudson Bay has above average ice for this time of year, but don't worry, it will melt out completely as it does every year.

Arctic sea ice is still at near record lows, no matter how you try to spin the Hudson Bay.

"Arctic sea ice extent for June 2015 averaged 11.0 million square kilometers (4.24 million square miles), the third lowest June extent in the satellite record. This is 920,000 square kilometers (355,200 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 11.89 million square kilometers (4.59 million square miles) and 150,000 square kilometers (58,000 square miles) above the record low for the month observed in 2010."Link

Also, your unsourced, uncited (purposely, I imagine) post is from Infowars, possibly the world's worst conspiracy website. Try again.
Was wondering if any of you will be attending the Third Annual Sea Level Rise Symposium in West Palm August 1st. Even if the State government is in a payed denial and refuses to act or acknowledge, local governments are seeing the effects first hand. The SLR workshop I attended in Key Largo at the Everglades Coalition Meeting was eye opening I expect this one to be good too.
Quoting 173. indianrivguy:

Was wondering if any of you will be attending the Third Annual Sea Level Rise Symposium in West Palm August 1st. Even if the State government is in a payed denial and refuses to act or acknowledge, local governments are seeing the effects first hand. The SLR workshop I attended in Key Largo at the Everglades Coalition Meeting was eye opening I expect this one to be good too.


Love to, but no can do. Too much going on here.
Quoting 152. Skyepony:

Last night's United Launch Alliance Delta 4 rocket carrying the Air Force’s WGS 7 communications spacecraft.launch was rescheduled for tonight due to weather. The sea breezes and boundaries collided already, rain is diminishing as the atmosphere stabilizes. Still too cloudy to see the launch from here. The go has been given to chill the upper stage O2 tank in advance of filling it. Launch window is 8:07 to 8:46 p.m. EDT. Live coverage is here.


Was on the lagoon just west of the launch last week, didn't have my Nikkon, all I got was phone camera pictures. We were capturing wild dolphins and giving them physicals under the HERA Project (Health and Risk Assessment) for the Georgia Aquarium. One of the coolest things I have ever done.
Quoting 178. Kenfa03:


Great info. Thanks for posting.


That's a piece of anti-gw propaganda filled with half truths and misinformation.
Why why whhhhhy!? I wanted that Joke to stay in the 90's.Now the younger generation has gotten a hold of it and it's become so out played and annoying.Somethings just need to stay dead dead and more dead.
So apparently I was in a possible "non warned" tornado today. The NWS is investigating the damage currently but I was over by College Road and it was just awful, almost like a hurricane as some customers were stating ..there are roofs missing, trees down in the road and on houses in some parts of Wilmington. The radar velocity actually showed a hook echo as well.

Quoting 181. ncstorm:

So apparently I was in a possible "non warned" tornado today. The NWS is investigating the damage currently but I was over by College Road and it was just awful, almost like a hurricane as some customers were stating ..there are roofs missing, trees down in the road and on houses in some parts of Wilmington. The radar velocity actually showed a hook echo as well.




Everyone okay?
Quoting 180. washingtonian115:

Why why whhhhhy!? I wanted that Joke to stay in the 90's.Now the younger generation has gotten a hold of it and it's become so out played and annoying.Somethings just need to stay dead dead and more dead.


My grandfather used to say "DDT" or drop dead thrice.
Quoting 148. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all ... how many COASTAL dwellers are taking the sea rise potential seriously? I'm thinking about the article someone posted earlier in the week which highlighted the reason why some NC dwellers, especially those on the OBX, are rejecting CC legislation. These people don't want to focus on the possibility of dramatic sea rise because it cuts their home equity right now. Admitting that your prime beachfront property will likely be 6 feet beneath the ocean in your greatgrandchildren's time doesn't do much for that property value now....

In The Bahamas, where 40% of our land area is likely to disappear in the next 100 years due to AGW, pretty much nothing is being done to reduce carbon emissions etc. Solarization is taking place because people are tired of paying high electricity bills, not because people hope to save their property for future generations. I'll bet attitudes aren't much different in other parts of the world ....


Why don't you take a trip to the Outerbanks, hold a rally and inform all those lost souls on the importance of sea level rise instead of on WU..

Would help the AGW cause..
Quoting 182. Naga5000:



Everyone okay?


yeah, no injuries reported thank goodness..I'll check and see if I can find some pictures..
Quoting 178. Kenfa03:


Great info. Thanks for posting.



Apparently links to anti-science nonsense articles are at risk of being removed.
Quoting 169. SLU:

The volume of Arctic sea ice has increased by 33% since 2013
If you're going to lie, might as well make it a big one. How about cherry picking a year and pretending there is some major growth trend in Arctic sea ice volume? No one will bother to check that out, right?

Their claim, however, runs contrary to satellite data showing there’s been no global warming for over 18 years. “For 222 months, since December 1996, there has been no global warming at all,”
Then follow it up with another cherry picked whopper. The whole picture.


...weather researcher Lord Christopher Monckton reported. “
Now that's just funny, right there.

Noted weather researcher Lord Monckton:



[snip more nonsense]
Quoting 181. ncstorm:

So apparently I was in a possible "non warned" tornado today. The NWS is investigating the damage currently but I was over by College Road and it was just awful, almost like a hurricane as some customers were stating ..there are roofs missing, trees down in the road and on houses in some parts of Wilmington. The radar velocity actually showed a hook echo as well.




The 90-110 mph winds that came through Columbus, Wisconsin a little over a week ago now were sustained for close to half an hour. Glad your okay, sounds like with roofs off it was likely a tornado. Surprisingly no roofs off in Columbus. Homes hold together well against straight line winds of 90-110. No injuries hopefully?
Quoting 151. Jedkins01:



I respectfully disagree with the official forecast, in that I think rainfall totals could be just as heavy across Tampa Bay coastal areas. Model guidance often seems to have a northward bias cutoff, the event last week worked that way as well, official rainfall forecasts had the heaviest rain mainly from Hernando and Citrus northward, but the heaviest totals ended up extending from those areas well into Pinellas and the Tampa Bay area. I'm thinking there's no reason it won't be the same case this time as well.

I suspect the bias might be due to the fact that fronts are expected to remain north of the region, but actually, it's not as unusual as one might think for summer cold fronts to stall in Central FL. Although I suspect we are beginning to see a trend that may continue throughout much of the rest of the rainy season, in that we will see periodic heavy rain events with frontal troughs instead of tropical wave rain events from a SE flow. If we keep seeing one of these events every week Flooding will become a big concern.


Jed, the last rain event did not penetrate well into Tampa Bay, as you have noted before. I hardly got anything, it all stayed at the coast. You've been been hyping this event big time, but let's just see how it plays out. Hopefully there is no flooding.
190. wxuxw
However, this low-level moisture is not effectively transported to high altitudes, resulting in warmer and drier conditions aloft and stronger high pressure in the middle and the upper troposphere.

i think i would need a little more logic to accept this claim.

ocean moisture just needs a kick to trigger vertical movement; the kick is often provided by orthogonal pressure gradients (wind across the surface of the planet). large-scale altitude-identical atmospheric air patterns have continued fairly consistently despite the warming of the ocean surface - we're still getting plenty of subtropical kelvin waves, last i checked, and those kelvin waves reliably seed the formation of tropical cyclones. so what am i missing?

empirically speaking, the rate of pacific cyclone formation seems to be little affected by the elevations in sea surface temperatures. but the length of the season has clearly been extended and the intensity of the cyclones has increased dramatically. i would argue that this is strong evidence that the theoretical models are missing something.
Checked the nearby CoCoRaHS site today and they finally reported the totals from the 19th and 20th..


 07/19/2015   0.39
 07/20/2015   1.74
MTD totals for July are 2.25"
Last years total was 7.85" (July 01,2014 to June 30, 2015)
Quoting 179. Naga5000:



That's a piece of anti-gw propaganda filled with half truths and misinformation.

Ok. Sounded like positive bit of info to me. I'm really hoping to see someone post something that gives me hope for the future of my kids and grandkids.
Launch was beautiful.. There is a blue seed of what very well may end up a noctilucent cloud.
Quoting 66. K8eCane:

At the risk of sounding like an idiot to some on here, I think there is something to be said for "keep it simple stupid"when discussing climate science on any forum where you hope the average joe will listen. Some of the climate articles that i try to read are rejected by me halfway through because i simply dont understand the language. I suspect others like me wont get a masters to learn the language. It would be easier, if you are truly rying to get people to listen, to simplify it. I like the oven analogy that someone posted.

You don't sound like an idiot. As a scientist, I hear you. It's tough when it isn't your field to try and keep up with it all, especially when it's controversial (or fake controversial). The issue is that climate science is quite complicated and it involves many many decades of scientific study. It isn't just one field of science, but in many ways is quite muli-disciplinary. It has required experts in chemistry, physics, meteorology, glaciology, marine science, and more to get us to our current understanding of climate science and where global warming will likely take our planet without action.

I agree with the person who suggested SkepticalScience... it's a great resource. Also the climate change section here on Weather Underground (which has some overlap with Skeptical Science I think). And when there is a topic that sounds complicated, ask a someone to point you in the right direction. That will make you far more knowledgeable on the topic - and far less idiotic - than those who choose to just google their question, without a degree or any experience, and act like that makes them expert to argue with those who did go to school in these fields.
Quoting 193. Skyepony:

Launch was beautiful.. There is a blue seed of what very well may end up a noctilucent cloud.
Completely clouded over here. Bummer...
The problem with asking someone "who is more knowledgeable" on this site is that you're still getting a subjective opinion. And on this site, it's an opinion with a GW agenda.
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 194. ScottLincoln:


You don't sound like an idiot. As a scientist, I hear you. It's tough when it isn't your field to try and keep up with it all, especially when it's controversial (or fake controversial). The issue is that the issue is quite complicated. It isn't just one field of science, but in many ways is quite muli-disciplinary. It has required experts in chemistry, physics, meteorology, glaciology, marine science, and more to get us to our current understanding of climate science and where global warming will likely take our planet without action.

I agree with the person who suggested SkepticalScience... it's a great resource. Also the climate change section here on Weather Underground (which has some overlap with Skeptical Science I think). And when there is a topic that sounds complicated, ask a someone to point you in the right direction. That will make you far more knowledgeable on the topic - and far less idiotic - than those who choose to just google their question, without a degree or any experience, and act like that makes them expert to argue with those who did go to school in these fields.
196. Really you do have a point. Scott Lincoln does have a AGW agenda. It's called the truth and the truth is an agenda the world needs to get behind. The opposite of the truth is also an agenda. And if you don't believe the truth, you believe the lie. And if you knowingly spread the lie, then real wrong agenda enters the picture.
Quoting 184. ncstorm:



Why don't you take a trip to the Outerbanks, hold a rally and inform all those lost souls on the importance of sea level rise instead of on WU..

Would help the AGW cause..

I would appreciate it if you would refrain from telling people what they can and cannot post on WU. That is the job of the mods.
I prefer the term "pro-science agenda," but I suppose some people are going to call it whatever they want to.
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


Ok. Sounded like positive bit of info to me.
Jeez, Ken, that one was straight BS beginning to end.

For future reference, anytime you see a claim like this: "For 222 months, since December 1996, there has been no global warming at all," you know right away you're being handed a load of fertilizer, as Tamino explains.

I'm really hoping to see someone post something that gives me hope for the future of my kids and grandkids.
So am I: I have grand kids, too. But no magic unicorn is going to show up and bail us out of this one. The laws of physics don't believe in magic. Our hope lies not in finding out the problem isn't real. It lies in recognizing the problem and doing something about it. Now.
Comment 198..where in my post that I said she couldnt talk about GW on WU..I suggested instead of just communicating on WU only, get in the trenches and talk with the locals..

You do realize Blogs aren't the only avenue in communicating GW or is it? You can't reach the "masses" if you are on a computer only and not out there speaking face to face..

Treat it like a "campaign" trail and meet the folks who arent on WU..just be sure to mention how much its going to cost..
203. FOREX
Quoting 168. Hurricanes101:



I think the stronger low if we have one develops in the Atlantic, but there is still plenty of energy for North and Central Florida and the Gulf to deal with.


I just tweeted Cantore about Gulf activity next week and he said there will be none.
I dont know but the NCEP ensembles aren't calling the MDR dead..whenever people here speak of something not going to happen, mother nature proves them wrong..

18z


12z
Quoting 203. FOREX:



I just tweeted Cantore about Gulf activity next week and he said there will be none.
Hey FOREX, I have not seen you in awhile.
Quoting 101. Naga5000:



The Yale Climate Opinion site has a very good demonstration of the concept being discussed.
"Global Warming is already harming people in the U.S." - Now/within 10 years 42%, 25 years+ or never 57%
"Global Warming will harm me personally." - Great/Moderate amount of harm 34%, Little to none at all 55%
"Global Warming will harm people in the U.S." - Great/Moderate amount of harm 51%, Little to none at all 39%
"Global Warming will harm future generations" - Great/Moderate amount of harm 61%, Little to none at all 26%
Link

It couldn't possibly happen to me, only to the other guy, and maybe down the road and to those generations.


People are incredibly poor at risk assessment. There was a recent gallup poll about "biggest threats", and the majority responded "ISIS". Meanwhile, obesity related diseases kill more than a million people a year.

Long term strategists we are not. As a species were very much "reactive" and not "proactive". We wait until the problem can no longer be ignored, THEN we do something about it. It's worse if something becomes a "common" problem, like heart disease. It really doesn't all that much effort to take steps to lower risks and improve heart health, but relatively few bother to. And since it is so common, no one even bothers to think of it.

"Unusual" stands out and gets attention. "Common" gets ignored. There are people absolutely paranoid about flying for fear of crashing, yet have no problem doing 90 on the interstate in heavy traffic. There are people absolutely paranoid about RF emissions, yet smoke two packs a day. Most people have a complete lack of perspective. That's why polls about "threats" hold little value other than giving politicians talking points for campaigns.

It's weird, but that's humanity.
Quoting 203. FOREX:

I just tweeted Cantore about Gulf activity next week and he said there will be none.

Good! My generator's busted.
NOAA awards $88,000 in grant funding to respond to West Coast harmful algal bloom outbreak

Blooms of Pseudo-nitzschia have been occurring along the entire West Coast from southern California to Alaska since May 2015, prompting public health concerns. Some species of Pseudo-nitzschia create a strong neurotoxin, domoic acid, which accumulates in filter-feeding fish, such as anchovies, and shellfish, and can affect marine mammals such as sea lions. Also, seafood contaminated with domoic acid can cause Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning, a severe illness that can cause permanent short-term memory loss, brain damage, or death, in severe cases. When domoic acid exceeds regulatory limits, state officials close shellfish beds and certain fishing areas.

Link
txjac, so true. So many never get past self and entertainment to sincerely care about the deeper subjects of life. AGW being one, there are so many that lack the deeper attention of the World's populace. And the maybe not so funny thing is, it would work because that's what people want. The why is Kim K famous question. But that is cynical, half of American's care deeply and not everyone is obliviously tuned out to the facts of a troubled world. Think Americans' are waiting for the big answer to what do we do about AGW? What's the plan? Taxing CO2 is a non starter with the Republicans in control of the House and Senate and is this deal with China going to really be enough? We've improved our footprint, China will improve, India will improve, and none of it will be close to enough. We're trending fast in the wrong direction even with possible improving footprints in the future. The plan by those in power is we have no viable plan. Plenty of talk though. Hot air is the problem.
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


Ok. Sounded like positive bit of info to me. I'm really hoping to see someone post something that gives me hope for the future of my kids and grandkids.


Hope is not allowed on here, just doom and gloom..and 7 headed dragons..
The next 5 days are going to be interesting.
212. txjac
Quoting 208. ColoradoBob1:

NOAA awards $88,000 in grant funding to respond to West Coast harmful algal bloom outbreak

Blooms of Pseudo-nitzschia have been occurring along the entire West Coast from southern California to Alaska since May 2015, prompting public health concerns. Some species of Pseudo-nitzschia create a strong neurotoxin, domoic acid, which accumulates in filter-feeding fish, such as anchovies, and shellfish, and can affect marine mammals such as sea lions. Also, seafood contaminated with domoic acid can cause Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning, a severe illness that can cause permanent short-term memory loss, brain damage, or death, in severe cases. When domoic acid exceeds regulatory limits, state officials close shellfish beds and certain fishing areas.

Link


Lake Erie in Ohio has been suffering from algae blooms in recent months. A lot of that is being caused by famers run off of water contaminated with fertilizer and also human waste. Breaks my heart every time I see a boil alert appear in the local papers.
214. FOREX
Quoting 205. Climate175:

Hey FOREX, I have not seen you in awhile.


Hi my friend. Hope you are doing well. I suffer from really severe depression, so most of the time I'm not really that social. Happy to be back though. Hoping for some tropical action.lol
215. txjac
Quoting 214. FOREX:



Hi my friend. Hope you are doing well. I suffer from really severe depression, so most of the time I'm not really that social. Happy to be back though. Hoping for some tropical action.lol


Sorry to hear about your condition
Happy though that you are among us enjoying the tropical (or non tropical) and climate change discussions.
It's good to sometimes push yourself to do something that you dont feel like doing ...like joining us here for a bit

Okay, I lied ... not lurking
Quoting 214. FOREX:



Hi my friend. Hope you are doing well. I suffer from really severe depression, so most of the time I'm not really that social. Happy to be back though. Hoping for some tropical action.lol
Yea, it's going to be coming soon.
The current major SAL outbreak is causing a plunge in Atlantic instability. The SAL had eased for awhile, which helped us run up a bit, although we never challenged climo. Now, it's just shockingly stable out there. Anyone who thinks something will form in the MDR for at least the next 10 days is kidding themself. The Southeast coast is worth watching though, NHC hasn't mentioned anything yet but I wouldn't rule out a development in the next week or so.

It aint going to happen but "insert reason why it would to cover yourself"..

Quoting 210. ncstorm:



Hope is not allowed on here, just doom and gloom..and 7 headed dragons..


Aww.. but Change is.
Quoting 221. Wolfberry:



Aww.. but Change is.


I would love to see more posts about change..however when you suggest it then its all goes to sugar honey ice tea..
I think NHC will mention the low coming off the SE coast at the 2am update.
Quoting 214. FOREX:



Hi my friend. Hope you are doing well. I suffer from really severe depression, so most of the time I'm not really that social. Happy to be back though. Hoping for some tropical action.lol


Several bloggers here have suffered from depression from time to time. If you ever need someone to chat with, shoot me a wu-mail, I'll be glad to talk to ya.
Wind pressure during a March 12th, 1911 Antarctic blizzard, from Scott's Last Expedition, 1913.


People sleeping in NYC's Battery Park during the deadly July 1911 heat wave

Quoting 210. ncstorm:



Hope is not allowed on here, just doom and gloom..and 7 headed dragons..


7 headed dragons? Sign me up!
You all have a good evening..Low about to exit the coast..



Quoting 210. ncstorm:



Hope is not allowed on here, just doom and gloom..and 7 headed dragons..


An untrue article from a conspiracy website is not hope. Plenty of hope gets posted when there is good news, see article about China cutting it's emissions last year and so far for 2015 they are on pace for a larger cut. That's good news. A lie about Hudson Bay and "no warming for 222 months" is just nonsense that only serves to confuse and add to the pile of fake information.

No one wants global warming or the projected outcomes, but in lieu of anything else, we aren't going to lie to ourselves to get the good feels.
Forex prayers your way.Got you covered.God bless.
Quoting 222. ncstorm:



I would love to see more posts about change..however when you suggest it then its all goes to sugar honey ice tea..


I am probably the greenest person here..NC..Completely off the grid, well, solar, vegetarian, drive to town approx once a month, round trip 50 miles, grow much of my own food. As far as the blog goes..I miss the old day of Taz chasing JFV, Press in a dress, virtual breakfast, Nea holding his head and the family and friends atmosphere. Glad to see you still here through it all..Northern AZ. am getting a little rain and has been a great start for Monsoon so far.
Record arctic sea ice? Odd. According to IARC-JAXA (IJIS), Arctic sea ice extent on July 22, 2015 was 747, 462 km2 below the 2000s average for July 22, 1,548,838 km2 below the 1990s average for July 22, and 2,347,257 km2 below the 1980s average for July 22.
Quoting 232. Wolfberry:



I am probably the greenest person here..NC..Completely off the grid, well, solar, vegetarian, drive to town approx once a month, round trip 50 miles, grow much of my own food. As far as the blog goes..I miss the old day of Taz chasing JFV, Press in a dress, virtual breakfast, Nea holding his head and the family and friends atmosphere. Glad to see you still here through it all..Northern AZ. am getting a little rain and has been a great start for Monsoon so far.


Probably, wow. Wonder how good Xulonn is compared to you, but he cheated and relocated to Panama (here).

Every once in a while JFV visits when the mods aren't looking... ;)
Quoting 234. Astrometeor:



Probably, wow. Wonder how good Xulonn is compared to you, but he cheated and relocated to Panama (here).

Every once in a while JFV visits when the mods aren't looking... ;)


Thanks Astro, I didn't realize he had a blog, really enjoy his comments at Ricky Roods blog.

236. bwi
Quoting 233. BaltimoreBrian:

Record arctic sea ice? Odd. According to IARC-JAXA (IJIS), Arctic sea ice extent on July 22, 2015 was 747, 462 km2 below the 2000s average for July 22, 1,548,838 km2 below the 1990s average for July 22, and 2,347,257 km2 below the 1980s average for July 22.


I guess it depends on the meaning of the word "average" :) The 2010s average, maybe by a trace...

Quoting 222. ncstorm:



I would love to see more posts about change..however when you suggest it then its all goes to sugar honey ice tea..
Quoting 231. help4u:

Forex prayers your way.Got you covered.God bless.
GLOBAL WARMING!!!
Thanks for #218 Brian.
I particularly like the last link from the NYT with the whiplash warning headline.
Quoting 234. Astrometeor:



Probably, wow. Wonder how good Xulonn is compared to you, but he cheated and relocated to Panama (here).

Every once in a while JFV visits when the mods aren't looking... ;)


I do have that pic of Auburn wearing a Pink Boa and a Portlight T shirt from the Destin, Portlight Fund raiser....
On a more light note,

Quoting 215. txjac:



It's good to sometimes push yourself to do something that you dont feel like doing


People keep telling me to do my homework...heh. Maybe I should this semester (Calc 3, Phys I)

....

Weather!

Quoting 217. MAweatherboy1:

The current major SAL outbreak is causing a plunge in Atlantic instability. The SAL had eased for awhile, which helped us run up a bit, although we never challenged climo. Now, it's just shockingly stable out there. Anyone who thinks something will form in the MDR for at least the next 10 days is kidding themself. The Southeast coast is worth watching though, NHC hasn't mentioned anything yet but I wouldn't rule out a development in the next week or so.




The MDR in late-July is as stable as the climatological average for March.

Wow.
I think NHC will mention the low coming off the SE coast at the 2am update. maybe or maybenot!!


watching off the east coast
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

Satellite images indicate that Felicia is weakening. The low-level
center of the system is exposed and the associated deep convection
is confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of the
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. This
makes Felicia a tropical depression. Since the depression is
already in a dry and stable airmass and will soon be over cool
water, continued weakening is predicted. The official forecast
shows Felicia becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could
occur even sooner. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

Felicia is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The depression is
expected to turn to the west-northwest on Friday and to the west on
Saturday steered by the low-level flow. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in best agreement with a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Completely clouded over here. Bummer...

Took some pics for you. It could have launched 15 mins later for peak Noctilucent cloud effect and still made it's window. Good long rolling sound, maybe dampened a little by humidity. Series of more pics is here.


Quoting 219. Climate175:


Quoting 246. Skyepony:


Took some pics for you. It could have launched 15 mins later for peak Noctilucent cloud effect and still made it's window. Good long rolling sound, maybe dampened a little by humidity. Series of more pics is here.





Totally forgot to poke my head out of the back door. Thanks for the pictures. :)
Quoting 246. Skyepony:


Took some pics for you. It could have launched 15 mins later for peak Noctilucent cloud effect and still made it's window. Good long rolling sound, maybe dampened a little by humidity. Series of more pics is here.





Watched it live from Tampa, would have taken out my telescope and tracked it through SECO had there not been clouds. Given the last rocket launch I watched from Cape Canaveral exploded, seeing one go nicely was good. :)
250. FOREX
Quoting 225. Astrometeor:



Several bloggers here have suffered from depression from time to time. If you ever need someone to chat with, shoot me a wu-mail, I'll be glad to talk to ya.
Thank you.
Quoting 217. MAweatherboy1:

The current major SAL outbreak is causing a plunge in Atlantic instability. The SAL had eased for awhile, which helped us run up a bit, although we never challenged climo. Now, it's just shockingly stable out there. Anyone who thinks something will form in the MDR for at least the next 10 days is kidding themself. The Southeast coast is worth watching though, NHC hasn't mentioned anything yet but I wouldn't rule out a development in the next week or so.





i keep telling every one that the MDR is closed down this year and i dont see any thing happening closer too home is where the fun will be this year AUGS could vary will be like july vary slow one may be one storm per moth
I have a random question for you all tonight. How can I get SPC convective outlooks from before January 23rd 2003?
if nothing happens off the E cost or we really dont see march in a way of a name storm in AUGS and SEP i think we will be seeing some in we have not seen in years we could be breaking records for the lest # of storms we have seen in one season we will be lucky if we can this make 5 name storms at this point and vary lucky if we hit 6 or 7 but the way i am seeing things now i think we will not see any more name storms for the rest of july and may be the 1st 2 weeks in AUGS
Doc, it would seem to me this model does not account for increases in tropical cyclone frequency caused by the expansion of warm, tropical SSTs. In an extreme greenhouse environment ("hothouse Earth") similar to the one we are recreating with alarming rapidity, one can even imagine tropical cyclones forming in the Arctic Ocean. Surely, overall tropical cyclone frequency would have to increase in the hothouse earth even assuming, arguendo, that the proposed mechanism for reduction in frequency is correct. The areal expansion effect would dwarf this...
Quoting 243. hurricanes2018:

I think NHC will mention the low coming off the SE coast at the 2am update. maybe or maybenot!!
I for one, am staying up for the 2 AM. This system looks scary. I've advised my friends in the Virginia Capes to buy batteries.
Climate Central Headline:   "How This El Niño Is And Isn’t Like 1997"


A comparison of sea surface temperatures between July 2015 and November 1997.

Read more here.
Quoting 254. ClimateChange:

Doc, it would seem to me this model does not account for increases in tropical cyclone frequency caused by the expansion of warm, tropical SSTs. In an extreme greenhouse environment ("hothouse Earth") similar to the one we are recreating with alarming rapidity, one can even imagine tropical cyclones forming in the Arctic Ocean. Surely, overall tropical cyclone frequency would have to increase in the hothouse earth even assuming, arguendo, that the proposed mechanism for reduction in frequency is correct. The areal expansion effect would dwarf this...


The paper took into account atmospheric conditions as well. I don't care how warm the ocean is, if the atmosphere is hostile, then it doesn't matter. Shear kills. Dry air weakens or stops development all together (MDR right now).
While Saharan dust isn't the only hurricane-killer in play this year, it's definitely a contributor.

Five stunning facts about Saharan dust:

Saharan dust can travel 4,000 miles to Southeast Florida, creating a haze in the sky and irritating respiratory problems.
Saharan dust blocks the sun from heating up ocean temperatures, a key ingredient in the creation of hurricanes.
Phosphorous carried in the Saharan dust helps fertilize the Amazon rain forest.
An estimated 182 million tons of dust is lifted from the Sahara desert and blown west each year.
Bouts of Saharan dust are unpredictable and can't stop all hurricanes.

Courtesy of Kimberly Miller of the Palm Beach Post
I've read with some interest the "what do coastal dwellers do?" discussion.

Some people could perhaps save up and buy an inland property, then rent their coastal dwelling to seasonal renters (weekly, monthly, and like that) until the coast or barrier island was unlivable.

(We moved 5 years ago from Davis (40' asl) to Fallon, on the other side of the Sierras, a hair less than 4000' asl. We seem to be starting an Arizona style monsoon pattern, and I certainly wonder not just what the changes will be in general but how they'll be influenced by the changes in the Sacramento Delta and Bay Area coastline.
Our Tampa Bay area forecast this weekend looks like a tropical cyclone forecast, a deep tropical airmass with PW's well above average even for this time of year, a warm atmosphere with height, and presence of low pressure will lead to bands of heavy tropical showers with gusty winds. Widespread totals of several inches are expected.



I can at least dream that it's a landfalling tropical cyclone, lol, I'm planning on heading out to the beach to watch the surf and heavy rains move in, I might try and surf or skim if it's not too dangerous. Alright I;m desperate for a tropical system, lol, but still while this is no tropical system, at least it's as close as we'll get to having one, without actually having one, lol.
Quoting 191. PedleyCA:

Checked the nearby CoCoRaHS site today and they finally reported the totals from the 19th and 20th..


 07/19/2015   0.39
 07/20/2015   1.74
MTD totals for July are 2.25"
Last years total was 7.85" (July 01,2014 to June 30, 2015)



Hey you are finally getting some rain!!! I am happy for you.

HOT here, 71F outside. Although it just sprinkled.
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


Ok. Sounded like positive bit of info to me. I'm really hoping to see someone post something that gives me hope for the future of my kids and grandkids.

The sea ice volume may have increased 33% since the low of 2012 but it's still lower than any year before 2007 in the satellite era records. After the low years of 2010-2012 it rebounded back around the trend line in a regression to the mean. But the drop this year is pretty steep.

Bradenton FL has been in one of those weird dry slots so far this summer. Only 3.74" of rain so far this July at my house. I had more rain than that in February!
Quoting 256. rayduray2013:

Climate Central Headline: "How This El Nio Is And Isn%u2019t Like 1997"


A comparison of sea surface temperatures between July 2015 and November 1997.

Read more here.



The big difference.... What are those two temp spots in the Pac, W of Conus?
OK the article explains....

Climate Central Headline: "How This El Nino Is And Isnt Like 1997"




One factor that may influence that is the remarkable pool of very warm waters that has been parked off the West Coast for a couple years now, a feature that was not present back in 1997. That feature could impact the typical changes El Nino brings to the jet stream, Daniel Swain, a PhD student in climate science at Stanford University, said in an email. It is possible that if the El Nino builds up enough strength, it could overcome that influence, though, he added.

El Nino really does make [it] into record territory during the coming winter, it's hard to envision California not experiencing a wetter-than-average winter, at least to some degree he said.
Good morning folks! Developing nasty windstorm which will enter the English Channel later today has been named as "Zeljko":




Current IR loop. Parts of Britain brace for 'intense' rain and wind
Met Office issues yellow warnings as up to 60mm of rain and 50mph winds are forecast across southern England

Quoting 34. cRRKampen:


This thing develops at near bomb rate as it traverses my country, Holland, from SW to NE (I live near Rotterdam). For me who loves wild weather a Saturday to look forward to, but this thing could become objectively dangerous what with all the trees in full leaf.

Indeed! Here two maps with predicted gusts tomorrow morning at the Dutch coast, wow! I've read in a German weatherblog that the Dutch dub this sort of storm as a "channel rat" ;-)





Source.

However, track of the center of the storm isn't clear yet: along the coast towards northeast or more to the east inland Germany? Anyway: things will get very dangerous for a lot of folks tonight (cold front with severe thunderstorms crossing Germany) and tomorrow with the main windfield. Boy, some models even hint to my region midwest Germany as one of the most affected ...

Airmass loops available here.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
403 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND TAMPA BAY
AREA...

.HEAVY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STALLED TROUGH OVER THE
AREA.

FLZ050-139-149-151-239-249-251-260000-
/O.EXB.KTBW.FA.A.0003.150724T1200Z-150726T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. PETERSBURG...CLEARWATER...LARGO...
CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...TAMPA...
APOLLO BEACH...WESTCHASE...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTO N...
DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...SUN CITY CENTER
403 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF FL AND WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FL...COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL LEVY...COASTAL PASCO...INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH...INLAND LEVY AND INLAND PASCO. IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...PINELLAS.

* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 3 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS AND POSSIBLY RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

Quoting 266. barbamz:
Here two maps with predicted gusts tomorrow morning at the Dutch coast, wow! I've read in a German weatherblog that the Dutch dub this sort of storm as a "channel rat" ;-)

Correct, 'Kanaalrat'. So is termed a small but vigorous low tracking from Biskay precisely through the Channel up into the North Sea. A particular example happened on Ascension Day 1983. Completely unexpected tiny system bombing out to beset Dutch coasts with storm force winds, dozen fatalities.
I expect tomorrow's system to become a bit less aggressive than that one, otoh trees are full in leaf and were not back then 12th of May 1983. So definitely one to watch out for.
last run of the 6z GFS has what looks like a tropical depression forming south of the CV islands right before August 10th. August 10th looks like when activity will start to pick up
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS BEGIN THE SHORT TERM PORTION F THE FORECAST IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. IN GENERAL, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL DRIFT SOUTH, TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA. MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THEY DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAK LOW OVER THE AREA DRIFTING AROUND THE
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND, HAS A CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER NORTH FLORIDA, AND
DEEPENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE GENERALLY OVER LAND.
WHILE THE GFS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, EITHER WILL MEAN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MORE BASED ON THE WIND, WHICH WILL INDICATE THE AREAS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, GENERALLY
PUSHING THE CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA,
ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL AREAS STILL HAVE A CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE WEST FLOW, THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREA OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODELS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MBE VECTORS FOR THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES, THIS COULD MEAN URBAN TYPE FLOODING, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS, WHICH HAVE POOR
DRAINAGE. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING WAS RIGHT
AROUND 16K FT. ALSO, THE 500MB TEMP WAS RIGHT AROUND -7C. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HAIL. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE NCAPE TO BE AROUND .15. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE WILL A
MIX OF PULSE TYPE STORMS AND SOME CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS THOSE LONGER LASTING CELLS
THAT MAY HAVE SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING EVEN SMALL HAIL, ALTHOUGH
IT WOULD BE A SLIM CHANCE. VERY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE
GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE 0-3KM BEING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 C/KM.
ABOVE THIS, THE LAPSE RATES DROP, WITH THE 3-6KM LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 C/KM. THESE WOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIE
OF YEAR. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD 500MB TROUGH SITTING OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. SO, CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE LAKE REGION AND
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINING
AREAS, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST. THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY HEAVY
RAIN, WITH LIGHTENING, AND POSSIBLY SOME WET DOWNBURSTS.

THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING, AND PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN LAKE REGION SEEING THE
CONVECTION FIRST. IT THEN SHOWS THE COASTAL REGIONS SEEING
CONVECTION AROUND 19Z. OF COURSE THIS TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE
VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS THE MODEL UPDATES, BUT IT GIVES A
GENERAL IDEA OF HOW THE DAY MAY UNFOLD.
Good Morning..

00z run
Nice photo of Forecaster Beven and Cangialosi.


Good Morning my fellow WunderBlog friend's.I was wondering what the thoughts were or chances on the Tropical Wave that is approaching to the SE of the Antilles Islands if has any chance of trying to develop into some sort of Tropical entity.
00z Euro
WOAH!!!






Woah?
Interesting stuff on the ECMWF but wasn't it trying to spin up something in the GOM a couple days ago. I would wait until it's in a more reasonable time frame.
the saddest image known to man......

Guess I'm in for a lot of wet weather this weekend. It's ok, we can still use the rain here on the coast.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WEAK SFC LOW/FRONTAL TROF OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EMBEDDED IN DEEP NW FLOW OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHES ACRS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL
NUDGE A FAIRLY TIGHT SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD INTO CENTRAL FL AS THE TROF
INTERACT WITH A HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GOMEX. THE USAF
915HZ CAPE PROFILER HAS BEEN DISPLAYING A SOLID 15-20KTS OF WRLY
FLOW SINCE 00Z AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ABATEMENT. THE STEADY W/SW
BREEZE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHILE
DEEP MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
MEASURED PWATS BTWN 2.1" AND 2.3" STATEWIDE...WHILE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS MEAN RH ARND 80PCT THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...AND 80PCT
RH ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL FL THRU THE H85-H50 LYR.

WHILE A FRONTAL TROF AXIS PUSHING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL RAISE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG WX AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE TROPICAL
AIRMASS OVERHEAD...IT APPEARS OVERALL SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.
WITHOUT A SEA BREEZE...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION WILL BE
LIMITED. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL LIMIT DEEP LYR THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY...H70 TEMPS ARND 10C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -5C ARE YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BLO 6C/KM THRU THE LYR. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL CAPPING OVER CENTRAL FL...WHICH WILL LEAVE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD UP SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO
BECOME EXPLOSIVE.

LATEST RADAR HAS SHOWN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACRS N FL FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...SOME OF IT EVEN BRUSHING THE NRN CWA. AIRMASS IS PRIMED
AND READY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IN SOME AREAS BEFORE
SUNRISE. MID LVL VORT AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GA COAST INTO THE NE
GOMEX WILL ENHANCE MID LVL DYNAMIC LIFT. UPR LVLS ARE STRONGLY
DIVERGENT DUE AS CNTRL FL IS SANDWICHED BTWN A WRLY 40-50KT WIND MAX
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A NERLY 40KT WIND MAX OVER THE BAHAMAS. EVEN
SO...LATEST SPC FCST IS CARRYING ONLY A MARGINAL WX THREAT FOR
CENTRAL FL.

WILL GO WITH 80/70 POPS AS HIGH PWAT VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH COVERAGE...BCMG CHC AFT SUNSET CONTG OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LCL FLOODING SHOULD TRAINING ECHOS DVLP
IN THE DEEP W/NW FLOW. HOWEVER...ERC VALUES ACRS THE CWA ARE RUNNING
BTWN 20-35 WHICH DOES NOT INDICATE SOIL NEAR SATURATION.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE NORMAL WARM WRLY FLOW...
MAX TEMPS NEAR 90F WILL BE WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S AREAWIDE SUGGEST ABV AVG MIN TEMPS IN THE
M/U70.

SAT-SUN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US DIGS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AROUND 15-20 KTS AS A RESULT...COMPLETELY DISALLOWING
ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION. BOUNDARY ALSO BRINGS IN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS 2-2.3"...OR 1-2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY
WARM AROUND -6C AND LAPSE RATES WEAK...FURTHER ILLUSTRATING THE
SOMEWHAT TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR A WET WEEKEND WITH THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK LOWS DEVELOPING AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE LOCAL WIND FIELD AND CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. OUTSIDE OF MINOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS.

MON-THU...
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF INTO NEXT WEEK IN
EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY (IF AT ALL) THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. GFS IS QUICKER TO WEAKEN AND ALSO
PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE ACCESS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR INTRUSION...AT LEAST FROM THE ORLANDO METRO
NORTHWARDS. BY MID WEEK THE MODEL SHOWS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH THE AXIS ACROSS S
FLORIDA. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN CUTTING OFF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STRONGER SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK AND
KEEPING A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SUGGESTS A BLEND OF THE TWO...SMOOTHING OUT THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

THIS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF CONTINUING STORMY FORECAST FOR THE
REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AT 50-60%.

&&
Quoting 283. Drakoen:

Interesting stuff on the ECMWF but wasn't it trying to spin up something in the GOM a couple days ago. I would wait until it's in a more reasonable time frame.
Yes, as the time frame get's narrowed down.
Quoting 279. TropicalWeatherpro91:



Good Morning my fellow WunderBlog friend's.I was wondering what the thoughts were or chances on the Tropical Wave that is approaching to the SE of the Antilles Islands if has any chance of trying to develop into some sort of Tropical entity.
Greetings..Thats what Charley looked like in 2004...Vicious little thing did a lot of damage.
Quoting 284. ricderr:

the saddest image known to man......



I've seen worst.
Quoting 279. TropicalWeatherpro91:



Good Morning my fellow WunderBlog friend's.I was wondering what the thoughts were or chances on the Tropical Wave that is approaching to the SE of the Antilles Islands if has any chance of trying to develop into some sort of Tropical entity.

Interesting catch, I checked it out on the CIMSS maps. It reminds me a lot of 93L, only smaller. It has an anticyclone over it so shear isn't an issue for now, and it's been able to generate decent convection. Like 93L, however, hostile conditions await it- high shear in the Caribbean, and it's also being chased down by this SAL outbreak.
Good Morning. The most interesting feature this morning (which will not develop) is the area of spin just off the coast of the Carolinas embedded in the trof off the coast. You can see a cyclonic spin on the radar loops but it is very sheared and being carried off to sea:






chance something could develop in the northeastern gulf it'll take a while
And the little wave approaching SA/lower Lesser Antilles is in a very dry environment and while under low shear at the moment (hence the "nice" look) it is headed towards hostile shear conditions inside the Caribbean; will not develop (IMHO) but will hopefully gain some latitude and bring some rain across Trinidad and Tobago and those parts.  If it were higher in latitude, it might have been a contender as it has what appears to be an anti-cyclone overhead and it has done a remarkable job of clearing out the SAL around it.



And here are the upper level (tutt cells) and lower level vort signatures for the Atlantic and Caribbean. Notice the nice surface vort in the vicinity of the spin off the Carolinas and no surface vort on the wave approaching the Antilles:

Surface:



Upper:

john hope would say watch just e. of the windwards beginning last week in july. opening day is coming up soon.
Quoting 280. ncstorm:

00z Euro
WOAH!!!





WOW looks like you all will have a strengthening tropical system heading up your way, meanwhile, we will be travelling in boats to get to work.

Latest run:

06z Run

Must have been some heavy wind here in wilmington yesterday because it took part of the roof and collapsed some of Builders First Source and you know that building was built well.
The experimental MPAS interestingly keeps the low weak near Florida, but moves it westward into a weak TS that targets the west LA/east TX coast.


105 hrs


150 hrs


177 hrs

Though the MPAS hasn't really been tested much in application towards tropical cyclones, its interesting that it is coming up with a very different solution.
Quoting 297. K8eCane:

Must have been some heavy wind here in wilmington yesterday because it took part of the roof and collapsed some of Builders First Source and you know that building was built well.


Yes it is..will be interesting to hear what the NWS survey team results are..
Here are some of the photos from the Star News of yesterday damage.














US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
9 hrs ·

The thunderstorms earlier today were some of the most impressive ones of the summer. In addition to the massive amounts of rain, lightning and wind they produced, the tops of the storm clouds reached an amazing 57,000 feet above the ground where the cloud temperature cooled to -107 °F!

Reply from NWS: This time of year we need 30,000 foot storm tops to get lightning. 40-45,000 feet is typical for a good healthy storm. The amount of energy it takes to get a storm to blast another two miles up into the very stable stratosphere is pretty amazing!


Thought i would post the current Shear Tendency Map for the North Atlantic. because if i'm seeing the map correctly the High Shear is looking like it is going to start Decreasing quite a bit even on the Decrease going into the Caribbean ahead of the Tropical Wave that i had pointed out to the SE of the Lower Antilles. I am also noticing the Tropical Wave gaining some Latitude a little more above the 10 Degree N line which means there is still that Possibility we could get some Tropical Developing especially having the Anticyclone on top of it .I will be keeping a very close eye on that Wave the next couple day's to see what may happen.
and yes...we are seeing Hurricane after hurricane this year....

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
10 hrs ·
90 mph microburst confirmed in Wilmington: July 23, 2015

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

647 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015



...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED NEAR

WILMINGTON IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...



LOCATION...WILMINGTON IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA

DATE...JULY 23 2015

ESTIMATED TIME...5:14 PM EDT - 5:17 PM EDT

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...200 YARDS

PATH LENGTH...0.9 MILE

BEGINNING LAT/LON...34.2461N / -77.8807W

ENDING LAT/LON...34.2482N / -77.8684W

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0
California's drought is 'a harbinger of the coming global water crisis'

"We view the unprecedented drought in California as a harbinger of the coming global water crisis," BAML strategists wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"By 2050E, 45% of projected GDP is at risk, with as many as 50 countries at risk of conflict over water."


Read more: Link
Quoting 268. tampabaymatt:




NWS in Ruskin has between 5-10 inches possible the next few days:


Link

This is going to be a major event. like a tropical cyclone without the surge and wind damage, anyone who lives in a low lying area might want to consider sand bags or possible evacuation, long term guidance especially the Euro has rainfall totals off the charts through the long term!


Quoting 295. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WOW looks like you all will have a strengthening tropical system heading up your way, meanwhile, we will be travelling in boats to get to work.




I'm on lunch break right now, so I don't have too much time on, we'll be back on later, but wow, that's crazy, and honestly a little scary lol, can't remember I've seen a ecmwf output like that in a long time anywhere except for way down in mountainous areas of Central America.
Quoting 306. ColoradoBob1:

California's drought is 'a harbinger of the coming global water crisis'

"We view the unprecedented drought in California as a harbinger of the coming global water crisis," BAML strategists wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"By 2050E, 45% of projected GDP is at risk, with as many as 50 countries at risk of conflict over water."


Read more: Link

That's terrible. Prayers up for them.
June 2015 is reportedly the driest calendar month in 115 years in Slovakia.

Link
311. ariot
Quoting 134. Kenfa03:


Totally agree. Has me wondering where to advise my daughter to live when she settles down.


When I was a member here before (same username, deleted on request due to trolls) I had drafted a blog post about all of the risk factors associated with choosing a place to live and work considering AGW. I based it on CONUS, since that is what I am most familiar with.

Perhaps I have it on my old laptop, still in word format. I never posted it or even started a WU blog.

While the topic is highly subjective and assumes you have to find a job, there are places that, I think, would be wise choices for long-term family planning (generational).

The two possible outcomes were "large city collective living" and " 5 acres or more rural living". They both have serious advantages and potential pitfalls.

My conclusion at the time was that suburban and exurban locations that are the "middle norm" now will not work at all. The reasoning I used was that you aren't in a large enough group for the "collective" benefit and you aren't far enough out for the "rural living" benefit.

I never really polished it up, maybe I should. FWIW, I never "picked a final spot" for my own plan. Still working that. The job market problems and/or growing season length problems kept busting any realistic budget planning.
Watch this storm crossing the Minnesota take a hard right turn and head straight towards Iowa I almost went fishing north of Davenport which looks like it's going to get hit around 1PM ... At 7 am there was a 0% chance of rain today so this must be an anomaly

Quoting 311. ariot:



When I was a member here before (same username, deleted on request due to trolls) I had drafted a blog post about all of the risk factors associated with choosing a place to live and work considering AGW. I based it on CONUS, since that is what I am most familiar with.

Perhaps I have it on my old laptop, still in word format. I never posted it or even started a WU blog.

While the topic is highly subjective and assumes you have to find a job, there are places that, I think, would be wise choices for long-term family planning (generational).

The two possible outcomes were "large city collective living" and " 5 acres or more rural living". They both have serious advantages and potential pitfalls.

My conclusion at the time was that suburban and exurban locations that are the "middle norm" now will not work at all. The reasoning I used was that you aren't in a large enough group for the "collective" benefit and you aren't far enough out for the "rural living" benefit.

I never really polished it up, maybe I should. FWIW, I never "picked a final spot" for my own plan. Still working that. The job market problems and/or growing season length problems kept busting any realistic budget planning.

That would be an interesting blog.
Quoting 307. Jedkins01:



NWS in Ruskin has between 5-10 inches possible the next few days:


Link

This is going to be a major event. like a tropical cyclone without the surge and wind damage, anyone who lives in a low lying area might want to consider sand bags or possible evacuation, long term guidance especially the Euro has rainfall totals off the charts through the long term!





I'm up to around 2" already today with more coming down and coming in. This is unreal.


notting happern yet!!
Quoting 309. Kenfa03:


That's terrible. Prayers up for them.

Why? The whole USA asked for it, say thanks for that.
Did they also break out the warming effects on specific areas, the North Atlantic for example?


wow!! east coast going up!!
Quoting 318. hurricanes2018:



wow!! east coast going up!!
It also looks like the purple is extending into the Gulf.
Quoting 316. cRRKampen:


Why? The whole USA asked for it, say thanks for that.

Asked for what? Devastating drought?
321. JRRP
Quoting 307. Jedkins01:



NWS in Ruskin has between 5-10 inches possible the next few days:


Link

This is going to be a major event. like a tropical cyclone without the surge and wind damage, anyone who lives in a low lying area might want to consider sand bags or possible evacuation, long term guidance especially the Euro has rainfall totals off the charts through the long term!



Major event for sure. I live in Odessa along 54 and I've had some standing water in my yard for the past 10 days or so. As of right now, water is about 3 inches from the slab of my house and about to come into the garage. It's "only" rained 2.5" here so far today, and I'm afraid if these rainfall totals come to fruition there will be a lot of homes flooding in this area. My three acre lot has literally been completely submerged twice since I moved here in the mid 90s- in December 1998 and in Feb of 2005. The way the yard looks right now, I'm expecting the third by Monday :/
real stormy here, Lightning,thunder, some wind and real heavy pouring rain by me.
The march of the king crabs: a warning from Antarctica

Changing wildlife: this article is part of a series looking at how key species such as bees, insects and fish respond to environmental change, and what this means for the rest of the planet.

Hundreds of metres below the surface of the freezing ocean surrounding Antarctica, the seafloor is teeming with life. The animals living there have no idea that an army is on the brink of invading their tranquil environment.

The army is composed of king crabs. Until 2003, there were no crabs in this fragile Antarctic ecosystem. Now, driven by warming waters, their arrival heralds a major upset.


Link
Quoting 306. ColoradoBob1:

California's drought is 'a harbinger of the coming global water crisis'

"We view the unprecedented drought in California as a harbinger of the coming global water crisis," BAML strategists wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

"By 2050E, 45% of projected GDP is at risk, with as many as 50 countries at risk of conflict over water."


Read more: Link


The problem with this argument is that the rain is not going to stop globally. In fact it may well increase globally with added evaporation. The locations where it falls in useful amounts may change significantly. There will be water, but it may not be where our infrastructure is designed to collect and store it.
Quoting 313. Kenfa03:


That would be an interesting blog.


agreed
Quoting 322. FLWeatherFreak91:

Major event for sure. I live in Odessa along 54 and I've had some standing water in my yard for the past 10 days or so. As of right now, water is about 3 inches from the slab of my house and about to come into the garage. It's "only" rained 2.5" here so far today, and I'm afraid if these rainfall totals come to fruition there will be a lot of homes flooding in this area. My three acre lot has literally been completely submerged twice since I moved here in the mid 90s- in December 1998 and in Feb of 2005. The way the yard looks right now, I'm expecting the third by Monday :/


I'm in Citrus Park and have picked up 3.11" already today, and it's still pouring.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1129 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FLZ047-054-058-059-241630-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
INDIAN RIVER FL-
1129 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1127 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SEBASTIAN INLET TO 6
MILES WEST OF BASINGER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH
BRIF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT PIERCE...SEBASTIAN...VERO BEACH...TREASURE ISLAND AND
OKEECHOBEE.

I'm wondering if all the rain in the Tampa area is going to slide down to the Sarasota area, or if it will stay north and east of us. It would be nice to know if I'm going to need a boat to get off this barrier island after work.
Quoting 322. FLWeatherFreak91:

Major event for sure. I live in Odessa along 54 and I've had some standing water in my yard for the past 10 days or so. As of right now, water is about 3 inches from the slab of my house and about to come into the garage. It's "only" rained 2.5" here so far today, and I'm afraid if these rainfall totals come to fruition there will be a lot of homes flooding in this area. My three acre lot has literally been completely submerged twice since I moved here in the mid 90s- in December 1998 and in Feb of 2005. The way the yard looks right now, I'm expecting the third by Monday :/
This could set the stage for an historic event. Which means a lot considering Florida is known for its huge amounts of rain.
Quoting 327. tampabaymatt:



I'm in Citrus Park and have picked up 3.11" already today, and it's still pouring.
I'm up to 3" now too lol. I am staying on top of local hi res models to see when the next round will redevelop. They aren't really showing much more for today though which somehow I don't believe. A lot of times they seem to underestimate rainfall in a west flow like this during the summer. I need jedkins input...
Quoting 325. JustDucky251:



The problem with this argument is that the rain is not going to stop globally. In fact it may well increase globally with added evaporation. The locations where it falls in useful amounts may change significantly. There will be water, but it may not be where our infrastructure is designed to collect and store it.


I posted this not so much as what was being said, as who was saying it.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think it’s going to get a lot worse.

Hardly a group of granola crunchers.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIP SOUTHWARD...BECOMING
ALIGNED FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND AN ATMOSPHERE THAT BECOMES UNSTABLE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST. A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY
LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG...PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS AS WELL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TODAY`S STORMS TO PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
15 TO 25 MPH.

BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP...DAYTIME HIGHS LIFTING INTO THE MID 90S
COMBINE WITH DAILY HUMIDITY...SUPPORTING HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM 101 TO 106.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS CAN BE COMMON IN STRONGER STORMS THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HIGHEST HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM 102 TO 107 DURING THE OUTLOOK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

Latest prediction of the track of stormy low "Zeljko" (pronouncation of this Croatian name a bit like "Jako" in English) by German Weather Service.


Center currently forming north of Brittany in the entrance of the English Channel.
Quoting 332. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'm up to 3" now too lol. I am staying on top of local hi res models to see when the next round will redevelop. They aren't really showing much more for today though which somehow I don't believe. A lot of times they seem to underestimate rainfall in a west flow like this during the summer. I need jedkins input...


Well, the flood advisory for our county expires at 1:00 PM, so local mets must seem to think we'll get a break. At some point the atmosphere has to stabilize, at least temporarily if anything. We need a break to let some of this water drain off. The ground will still be saturated so any more torrential rains will immediately lead to more flooding, but at least the current standing water will have a chance to drain. Good luck.
Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FLZ054-059-064-241715-
MARTIN FL-ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1220 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VERO BEACH TO NEAR FOUR
SEASONS ESTATES...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...STUART AND VERO BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015


Excerpt:

ANOTHER SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE FRONT SHOULD BE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE
THROUGH DAY 5 WED. BY DAY 6 AND 7 HOWEVER...THE 00Z EC
DETERMINISTIC BEGINS TO SUGGEST TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED
GIVEN THAT THE SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OCCURS OVER
LAND...WITH THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.
Quoting 339. nrtiwlnvragn:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015


Excerpt:

ANOTHER SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE FRONT SHOULD BE BAROCLINIC IN NATURE
THROUGH DAY 5 WED. BY DAY 6 AND 7 HOWEVER...THE 00Z EC
DETERMINISTIC BEGINS TO SUGGEST TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED
GIVEN THAT THE SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OCCURS OVER
LAND...WITH THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS.
Yep..I was going to post that if whatever low does form over water, it may get hung up and intensify..Making a wet set up much worse...Not to mention there is still the rest of hurricane season to go.
Quoting 336. barbamz:


Latest prediction of the track of stormy low "Zeljko" (pronouncation of this Croatian name a bit like "Jako" in English) by German Weather Service.


Center currently forming north of Brittany in the entrance of the English Channel.


It's more like late September/early October for me thanks to this low. Been raining all day and there was some really heavy rain earlier (with a rain rate of 1 inch/hours). Some of the streets where I live were covered in a thin layer of water, something I haven't seen in a while! Thankfully the rain has died down a bit, although it's still drizzling.

Good news for all the plants though, lots of brown grass and such around my area. I suspect the next week or so it'll all turn green with this rain and some more forecast in the next week.
345. bwi
Since it has been in the news a lot, I figured I'd post the links to James Hansen's latest paper, which argues that sea level rise may be more drastic than currently expected by the IPCC (which is the consensus, multi-nation process for predicting climate change impacts).
Here's the abstract and landing page: http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2 015/acpd-15-20059-2015.html
And here's the PDF: http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2 015/acpd-15-20059-2015.pdf

I don't understand many of the details, but I think I can summarize the basics (feel free to add corrections!): Hansen and the research team argue that paleo evidence and new research on land ice in Greenland and Antarctica that is affected by sea water intrusion indicates that land ice reduction could be much more rapid than expected, essentially non-linear or more sudden than current consensus predictions. This leads to all sorts of problems, including much faster-than-expected sea level rise, as well as weather changes resulting from cold freshwater ocean pools, potential for really nasty temperate zone storms etc. In my area, we would be very adversely affected by sea level rise of the levels suggested by Hansen, and also possibly by any rapid changes in the gulf stream flow rates etc.

Here's the abstract in the author's own words:

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous

J. Hansen1, M. Sato1, P. Hearty2, R. Ruedy3,4, M. Kelley3,4, V. Masson-Delmotte5, G. Russell4, G. Tselioudis4, J. Cao6, E. Rignot7,8, I. Velicogna7,8, E. Kandiano9, K. von Schuckmann10, P. Kharecha1,4, A. N. Legrande4, M. Bauer11, and K.-W. Lo3,4
1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA
2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, North Carolina 28403, USA
3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA
4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France
6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710075, China
7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, 91109, USA
8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, 92697, USA
9GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany
10Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France
11Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA

Received: 11 Jun 2015 – Accepted: 09 Jul 2015 – Published: 23 Jul 2015
Abstract. There is evidence of ice melt, sea level rise to +5–9 m, and extreme storms in the prior interglacial period that was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Human-made climate forcing is stronger and more rapid than paleo forcings, but much can be learned by combining insights from paleoclimate, climate modeling, and on-going observations. We argue that ice sheets in contact with the ocean are vulnerable to non-linear disintegration in response to ocean warming, and we posit that ice sheet mass loss can be approximated by a doubling time up to sea level rise of at least several meters. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield sea level rise of several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years. Paleoclimate data reveal that subsurface ocean warming causes ice shelf melt and ice sheet discharge. Our climate model exposes amplifying feedbacks in the Southern Ocean that slow Antarctic bottom water formation and increase ocean temperature near ice shelf grounding lines, while cooling the surface ocean and increasing sea ice cover and water column stability. Ocean surface cooling, in the North Atlantic as well as the Southern Ocean, increases tropospheric horizontal temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, which drive more powerful storms. We focus attention on the Southern Ocean's role in affecting atmospheric CO2 amount, which in turn is a tight control knob on global climate. The millennial (500–2000 year) time scale of deep ocean ventilation affects the time scale for natural CO2 change, thus the time scale for paleo global climate, ice sheet and sea level changes. This millennial carbon cycle time scale should not be misinterpreted as the ice sheet time scale for response to a rapid human-made climate forcing. Recent ice sheet melt rates have a doubling time near the lower end of the 10–40 year range. We conclude that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous. Earth's energy imbalance, which must be eliminated to stabilize climate, provides a crucial metric.

The report was rushed into publication via a public contemporaneous peer review journal, so it's fair to say that the study hasn't been peer reviewed yet, and the conclusions may change as other scholars weigh in and suggest corrections.

Obviously, many mainstream scientists will be skeptical of these new theories and arguments, and of course the science denial crowd and fossil fuel industries are guaranteed to be unconvinced no matter how the evidence eventually shakes out.

But for me, I will say I'm glad Hansen has taken the controversial step of publishing the new ideas and research as quickly as possible -- he and his coauthors have stuck their necks out in public in case some of their peers find mistakes or problems in their analysis. If they're right, though, I'm glad for the advance warning in the public sphere, not just in the scientific give and take outside of the public realm. I appreciate the heads up as soon as possible -- after all, Hansen has a history of being very prescient on these things. Regardless of how other scientists feel about his tactics, he does have a track record of being, you know, right!

If he's right in this case, my home state of Maryland is going to have to replace a metric ****-ton of infrastructure and tax base a lot sooner than expected.
Quoting 333. ColoradoBob1:



I posted this not so much as what was being said, as who was saying it.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think it’s going to get a lot worse.

Hardly a group of granola crunchers.


I wonder if the warm water off the west coast will prevent the rains that el nino will hopefully bring this winter. Don't think those warm waters were there in 97.
Will note as the issue of the California drought issue that while El Nino might transport some rain precip in that direction, the flip side is the El Nino winter's are usually milder and warmer in the Pacific NW. If this El Nino persists into the Winter, it could mean less snow-pack for the Rockies to fill the resorviors that supply parts of Cali downstream into the larger Cities and Ag regions...............It's going to be touch and go for California water-wise going into 2016.
And as to the issue of "Jurrassic" hot, here a new paper (highlight and link) on the issue global warming and past extinction issues Woolly Mammoth and company): interesting stuff for sure

http://news.sciencemag.org/evolution/2015/07/hot- spells-doomed-mammoths


About 30,000 years ago, mammoths, giant sloths, and other massive mammals roamed the earth. Twenty thousand years later they were all gone. Some researchers blame human hunting, but a new study claims that abrupt shifts in climate set in motion a downward spiral for many of these species, one that humans aggravated. The results, the authors say, are a warning to modern humans that, if not slowed, current warming could doom many more species.

Cooper and colleagues also documented climate fluctuations by looking for tell-tale signs of temperature change recorded in ice cores from Greenland. To pin these down more accurately, they matched those dates against fluctuations recorded in marine sediments in Venezuela. From the two records, they built a timeline of so-called interstadials—periods when climate suddenly warmed by as much as 16°C, sometimes over decades, and then cooled down again just as quickly. Several such fluctuations occurred before Earth entered a sustained period of cold from 27,000 to 19,000 years ago. And a few followed this last glacial maximum.

When the ice age was at its peak, mammoths, sloths, and other big mammals held their ground, indicating the cold was not causing extinctions as some researchers had assumed, the team reports online today in Science. But many of these species did decline and even disappeared from certain locations when the climate warmed rapidly—particularly 34,000 years ago and again between 28,000 and 30,000 years ago, the group concludes.

I wonder if the warm water off the west coast will prevent the rains that el nino will hopefully bring this winter. Don't think those warm waters were there in 97.

no they weren't there in 97.....as for california rains......looking at NOAA's long range predictions.....southern through central california look like they'll be above average in rainfall.....they're calling for normal in the northern regions however...they're also calling for above average temps...which i'm not so sure bodes well for their snow pack
351. JRRP
No model consistency, but EURO shows poss trop cyclone late next week off SE US moving NE. Much uncertainty... - HurricaneTracker App twitter.
As to the article below, logic tells me that a "woolly"mammoth had the wool that protected it from colder temps. However, if the temperatures grow hotter over a rapid period of time (with these animals not being able to adapt over time/shed the wool), they probably died off as the result of related heat stroke type issues in their warming world.
Currently across Conus, there not much rain at the moment except for near the Great Lakes and Florida is lit up again this afternoon:


Quoting 301. ncstorm:

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
9 hrs ·

The thunderstorms earlier today were some of the most impressive ones of the summer. In addition to the massive amounts of rain, lightning and wind they produced, the tops of the storm clouds reached an amazing 57,000 feet above the ground where the cloud temperature cooled to -107 °F!

Reply from NWS: This time of year we need 30,000 foot storm tops to get lightning. 40-45,000 feet is typical for a good healthy storm. The amount of energy it takes to get a storm to blast another two miles up into the very stable stratosphere is pretty amazing!

We had some good ones come overhead yesterday evening.. one lightning bolt was right above us and I was expecting an immediate thunder but when it didn't I started counting and got to 24 before the thunder boomed.. almost 5 miles straight up.. I love living in the South! (California storms where rare, and puny)
kenfa....here's the long range anomaly graph for dec through jan......with only as much as a 2 inch anomaly and basically nothing more than average for the watersheds that flow into their largest reservoirs....at least the major bleeding should stop...but they won't be out of drought conditions if this holds true





here's the rest of california's rainy season...and the last three months look even less impressive....wouldn't it be bad luck if all california got was flooding and mudslides in socal...and no major increase to their reservoirs which bring the water to the people



358. JRRP
look the shear tendency in niño year at this date
2006

2009

2014

2015
Anyone that believes that the atmosphere heats the oceans has absolutely no concept of thermodynamics.
And, if global ice has been melting, would that not cool the oceans?
Quoting 338. LargoFl:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FLZ054-059-064-241715-
MARTIN FL-ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1220 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VERO BEACH TO NEAR FOUR
SEASONS ESTATES...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT SAINT LUCIE...WALTON...FORT PIERCE...STUART AND VERO BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&




Yes this storm was a repeat of yesterday's. But we are getting a decent amount of rain.
Quoting 336. barbamz:

Latest prediction of the track of stormy low "Zeljko" (pronouncation of this Croatian name a bit like "Jako" in English) by German Weather Service.
Center currently forming north of Brittany in the entrance of the English Channel.

Time for details... Hirlam model of the Royal Dutch Met (fine maze running within ECWMF) treats us to shapes like this. Anything could still happen wrt to those sub-swirls.
I'd not look up from a tornado or a couple in Holland or Niedersachsen.

CMC.

Quoting 359. HurricaneH:

Anyone that believes that the atmosphere heats the oceans has absolutely no concept of thermodynamics.
I know, right? Just last evening I poured myself a nice, cold iced tea, then sat the drink on the table in my hot dining room and forgot about it for a few hours. But when I remembered it and went back, it was still there, just as cold and crisp as it was when I had poured it hours earlier! Conduction no longer exists! Who knew?!
Quoting 360. HurricaneH:

And, if global ice has been melting, would that not cool the oceans?

It seems to do so regionally around the Antarctic continent and south of Greenland.
Total ocean heat keeps rising, because not all the extra heat is dissipated in melting ice (or increased evaporation, for a likewise matter).
Calculations are not too hard to make btw.
Anyone that believes that the atmosphere heats the oceans has absolutely no concept of thermodynamics.

yep....it just can't happen....no way...no how



Solar Radiation: Much of the direct and diffuse solar short wave (less than 2 micros, mostly in the visible range) electromagnetic radiation that reaches the sea surface penetrates the ocean (the ocean has a low albedo, except when the sun is close to the horizon), heating the sea water down to about 100 to 200 meters, depending on the water clarity. It is within this thin sunlit surface layer of the ocean that the process of photosynthesis can occur. Solar heating of the ocean on a global average is 168 watts per square meter.
Quoting 359. HurricaneH:

Anyone that believes that the atmosphere heats the oceans has absolutely no concept of thermodynamics.

Wow. DK gold.
Quoting 359. HurricaneH:

Anyone that believes that the atmosphere heats the oceans has absolutely no concept of thermodynamics.

What is causing the warm water off the US west coast?
What is causing the warm water off the US west coast?

an excess of surfing penguins........those things just heat up the water to no end......

Paul Beckwith: Can global sea level rise 7 meters by 2070?

Beckwith comments on the new Hansen paper-

13 min video
Quoting 359. HurricaneH:

Anyone that believes that the atmosphere heats the oceans has absolutely no concept of thermodynamics.


Ohhhh, you mean thats the devil under there with a gas burner around June 1st saying "time to heat up now"? Come on man. Even I know that much.
If this verifies, good news for drought areas of SFL.

And here is the relative position of the polar jet over Europe helping to power the wind storm:


375. bwi
Quoting 360. HurricaneH:

And, if global ice has been melting, would that not cool the oceans?


Absolutely, near the ice sheets, which seems to be happening both near Greenland and Antarctica! Of course warming continues apace at the tropics, which is why Hansen et al predict a higher chance of superstorms between the cold freshwater-ish pools and the superheated tropics.

Overall, sea surface and sub surface temps increase, land ice melt will add lots of localized complexity.
Quoting 362. cRRKampen:


Time for details... Hirlam model of the Royal Dutch Met (fine maze running within ECWMF) treats us to shapes like this. Anything could still happen wrt to those sub-swirls.

Yeah, very complicated setup (and thank you for the map!). There are rumours that the core of the storm may split somehow, sending one part further south which would be a very unwelcome surprise for folks in my area mid Germany.

BTW, for all who would like to read it. Estofex had a synoptic discussion yesterday evening. Hope, they'll give an update later on.
Temporal Variability of Forest Fires in Eastern Amazonia
Abstract
Widespread occurrence of fires in Amazonian forests is known to be associated with extreme droughts, but historical data on the location and extent of forest fires are fundamental to determining the degree to which climate conditions and droughts have affected fire occurrence in the region. We used remote sensing to derive a 23-year time series of annual landscape-level burn scars in a fragmented forest of the eastern Amazon. Our burn scar data set is based on a new routine developed for the Carnegie Landsat Analysis System (CLAS), called CLAS-BURN, to calculate a physically based burn scar index (BSI) with an overall accuracy of 93% (Kappa coefficient 0.84). This index uses sub-pixel cover fractions of photosynthetic vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and shade/burn scar spectral end members. From 23 consecutive Landsat images processed with the CLAS-BURN algorithm, we quantified fire frequencies, the variation in fire return intervals, and rates of conversion of burned forest to other land uses in a 32 400 km 2 area. From 1983 to 2007, 15% of the forest burned; 38% of these burned forests were subsequently deforested, representing 19% of the area cleared during the period of observation. While 72% of the fire-affected forest burned only once during the 23-year study period, 20% burned twice, 6% burned three times, and 2% burned four or more times, with the maximum of seven times. These frequencies suggest that the current fire return interval is 5―11 times more frequent than the estimated natural fire regime. Our results also quantify the substantial influence of climate and extreme droughts caused by a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the extent and likelihood of returning forest fires mainly in fragmented landscapes. These results are an important indication of the role of future warmer climate and deforestation in enhancing emissions from more frequently burned forests in the Amazon.

Link
entering Cape Verde season shortly everyone on the East Coast got to have jitters after Sandy.
Quoting 374. weathermanwannabe:

And here is the relative position of the polar jet over Europe helping to power the wind storm:

Exactly. Tonight the storm will strengthen right in this kink of the jetstream:


Source.
Quoting 364. Neapolitan:

I know, right? Just last evening I poured myself a nice, cold iced tea, then sat the drink on the table in my hot dining room and forgot about it for a few hours. But when I remembered it and went back, it was still there, just as cold and crisp as it was when I had poured it hours earlier! Conduction no longer exists! Who knew?!


I guess we live in a World with only one method of heat transfer?
Shear 10 days out. Still other issues-SAL and stable air.
Quoting 364. Neapolitan:

I know, right? Just last evening I poured myself a nice, cold iced tea, then sat the drink on the table in my hot dining room and forgot about it for a few hours. But when I remembered it and went back, it was still there, just as cold and crisp as it was when I had poured it hours earlier! Conduction no longer exists! Who knew?!


You never invite me over for iced tea.
Quoting 333. ColoradoBob1:



I posted this not so much as what was being said, as who was saying it.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think it’s going to get a lot worse.

Hardly a group of granola crunchers.



This is what will kill off denialism once and for all. As the big reinsurers start to redline entire vulnerable regions, and the Pentagon takes global warming into account, and investment banks start treating it as a known and accepted risk, the ideological objections will be swept aside. It's inevitable. Hopefully the process happens quickly enough.

Quoting 370. ColoradoBob1:

Paul Beckwith: Can global sea level rise 7 meters by 2070?

Beckwith comments on the new Hansen paper-

13 min video
YIKES....
Quoting 383. Naga5000:


You never invite me over for iced tea.


Good thing - I think he serves it at room temperature ;-)
387. vis0

Quoting 93. ncstorm:

Good article on LiveScience about the Atlantic Ocean being the second largest ocean on Earth

33,400,000 square miles (86,505,603 square kilometers)

The world's second largest ocean, the Atlantic Ocean covers about 21 percent of Earth's surface. Separating North and South America from Europe and Africa, the Atlantic Ocean is the youngest of the world's present-day oceans, having formed in the Jurassic Period (about 200 million to 150 million years ago), according to the International Geology Review.

Located in the northern area of the Atlantic Ocean is the Bermuda Triangle, with its three points touching upon Miami, Bermuda and Puerto Rico. Also known as "the Devil's Triangle," the Bermuda Triangle is believed to be responsible for the mysterious disappearance of more than 50 ships and 20 airplanes over the past century, according to the U.S. Navy.

The Greek philosopher Plato wrote about a mythical island called Atlantis, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, on which lived a powerful empire that had been created by Poseidon, the God of the Sea.


Quoting 90. JeffMasters:



That's a good point, but the paper was about global tropical cyclones, of which the Atlantic makes up only about 10% of the activity. In addition, the period of study was 30 years, so the past 8 years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic doesn't show up as much as you might expect.

Jeff Masters
my reply on my zilly pg cmmnt#23
388. vis0

Quoting 93. ncstorm:

Good article on LiveScience about the Atlantic Ocean being the second largest ocean on Earth

33,400,000 square miles (86,505,603 square kilometers)

The world's second largest ocean, the Atlantic Ocean covers about 21 percent of Earth's surface. Separating North and South America from Europe and Africa, the Atlantic Ocean is the youngest of the world's present-day oceans, having formed in the Jurassic Period (about 200 million to 150 million years ago), according to the International Geology Review.

Located in the northern area of the Atlantic Ocean is the Bermuda Triangle, with its three points touching upon Miami, Bermuda and Puerto Rico. Also known as "the Devil's Triangle," the Bermuda Triangle is believed to be responsible for the mysterious disappearance of more than 50 ships and 20 airplanes over the past century, according to the U.S. Navy.

The Greek philosopher Plato wrote about a mythical island called Atlantis, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, on which lived a powerful empire that had been created by Poseidon, the God of the Sea.

reply at my zilly pg cmmnt#22 THERE
Wildfires threaten villages across the Balkans

Kovac said unusually high temperatures were responsible for the extent and ferocity of the fires.

"We are speaking of a complete meteorological contrast. Last year we were hit by floods, and this year we are dealing with high temperature and wildfires. Both of them have caused damage to an enormous extent," she said.


Link
The last thing needed in the GOM this summer is a major hurricane. It will shut down the few rigs that are still drilling. Not to mention if it destroy's or damages rigs like Katrina, Rita or Ike did. Thousands of people have already lost their jobs over the past year with no let up to the "bear" oil market in sight. This ignorant Iran deal isn't going to help matters any either. Over the past few months I've seen guys that have been with companies more than 40 years forced into retirement to cut labor costs...

Conoco Phillips just terminated a 3 year contract on 1 of our drillships. They are still paying 440 mill of the contract or an amount equal to 2 years of the day rate. If they are willing to pay that much and not even use the rig then you have wonder just how bad it really may get.....
Quoting 385. PedleyCA:


YIKES....



Buckle yer chin strap.
Quoting 350. ricderr:

I wonder if the warm water off the west coast will prevent the rains that el nino will hopefully bring this winter. Don't think those warm waters were there in 97.

no they weren't there in 97.....as for california rains......looking at NOAA's long range predictions.....southern through central california look like they'll be above average in rainfall.....they're calling for normal in the northern regions however...they're also calling for above average temps...which i'm not so sure bodes well for their snow pack


Shouldn't be a big problem due to the elevation of their mountain range. That does however spell worriesome news for us here in Washington state, as that sounds like a rerun of this past year of rain, not snow falling.
Quoting 375. bwi:



Absolutely, near the ice sheets, which seems to be happening both near Greenland and Antarctica! Of course warming continues apace at the tropics, which is why Hansen et al predict a higher chance of superstorms between the cold freshwater-ish pools and the superheated tropics.

Overall, sea surface and sub surface temps increase, land ice melt will add lots of localized complexity.


Also cooling it with fresh not salt water that sinks below the salt water.
The big retro-grading Gulf ULL (now moving West from the Yucatan area) is helping with
the baroclinic shower activity around Florida by getting out of the way (thus less colder-dry
sinking air) in favor of the frontal bounty over Florida and related moisture now moving into
the Eastern Gulf:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z KTAE sounding confirms a northwesterly flow regime with a
very moist column. The PW is well above normal at 2.15 inches.
Surface analysis shows a cold front neat Atlanta. This front will
continue to slip south toward the forecast area today, possibly
reaching into our northern zones.
The latest CAM guidance suggests
this could limit afternoon convective coverage across our
northeastern zones below what we have been advertising and we made
a slight adjustment there. The main message today is that
convective coverage will be high. Once again, we will be faced
with a threat of isolated wet microbursts that could prompt
warnings for damaging straight-line winds. SPC has us in a
marginal risk for severe.

												
Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

The last thing needed in the GOM this summer is a major hurricane. It will shut down the few rigs that are still drilling. Not to mention if it destroy's or damages rigs like Katrina, Rita or Ike did. Thousands of people have already lost their jobs over the past year with no let up to the "bear" oil market in sight. This ignorant Iran deal isn't going to help matters any either. Over the past few months I've seen guys that have been with companies more than 40 years forced into retirement to cut labor costs...

Conoco Phillips just terminated a 3 year contract on 1 of our drillships. They are still paying 440 mill of the contract or an amount equal to 2 years of the day rate. If they are willing to pay that much and not even use the rig then you have wonder just how bad it really may get.....

Lot of people taking pay cuts and losing jobs in Texas.
Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

The last thing needed in the GOM this summer is a major hurricane. It will shut down the few rigs that are still drilling. Not to mention if it destroy's or damages rigs like Katrina, Rita or Ike did. Thousands of people have already lost their jobs over the past year with no let up to the "bear" oil market in sight. This ignorant Iran deal isn't going to help matters any either. Over the past few months I've seen guys that have been with companies more than 40 years forced into retirement to cut labor costs...

Conoco Phillips just terminated a 3 year contract on 1 of our drillships. They are still paying 440 mill of the contract or an amount equal to 2 years of the day rate. If they are willing to pay that much and not even use the rig then you have wonder just how bad it really may get.....

Yes, much better to rain bombs on a country of 80 million. A war in the Middle East. What could possibly go wrong?
Quoting 393. VAstorms:



Also cooling it with fresh not salt water that sinks below the salt water.


Sorry, the fresh water isn't sinking. It's one reason the sea ice is growing around Antarctica.
Wow.
Investors could lose $4.2tn due to impact of climate change, report warns

Investments in fossil fuel companies face serious risk from global warming, research by the Economist Intelligence Unit shows

Private investors stand to lose $4.2tn (£2.7tn) on the value of their holdings from the impact of climate change by 2100 even if global warming is held at plus 2C, a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned.

If firm action is not taken at the forthcoming climate change talks in Paris and the Earth’s temperature warms by a further 5C then investors are facing losses of almost $7tn at today’s prices, new research shows.

This is more than the total current market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange with impacts on company holdings that will come not just through extreme weather damage but also through lower economic growth.


Link
402. FOREX
I just had a long and detailed discussion with my Tropical Crystal Ball and here are the findings. "No Major tropical system to affect the Gulf until 2019."
very robust tropical wave with a 1013mb low at 11N 20W moving west. may not survive the atlantic journey with all that dry and stable air abound.
404. FOREX
Quoting 401. HimacaneBrees:

No bombs have to be dropped.. Normal Liberal BS though. More concerned over 80 million Iranians, that more than likely 99.5% of which HATE Americans, than the impacts that this deal could have on US citizens. The Ayatollah has already stated that they will not follow or listen to what the US has to say. I bet ya'll don't believe that "All Lives Matter" either. What a crock.

Enough... Not saying anymore about it. My entire point with my post was that WE DO NOT NEED A Major HURRICANE IN THE GULF!!!!! I'm out.
You are correct.
405. JRRP
see u later
Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

A three word history of the oil business -

BOOM and BUST
Quoting 401. HimacaneBrees:

No bombs have to be dropped.. Normal Liberal BS though. More concerned over 80 million Iranians, that more than likely 99.5% of which HATE Americans, than the impacts that this deal could have on US citizens. The Ayatollah has already stated that they will not follow or listen to what the US has to say. I bet ya'll don't believe that "All Lives Matter" either. What a crock.

Enough... Not saying anymore about it. My entire point with my post was that WE DO NOT NEED A Major HURRICANE IN THE GULF!!!!! I'm out.


Iranians are actually very open to the West and Western culture. Where do you get this stuff from? Take your misconceptions elsewhere, throwing liberal around like its a bad word is just childish.
Quoting 401. HimacaneBrees:

No bombs have to be dropped.. Normal Liberal BS though. More concerned over 80 million Iranians, that more than likely 99.5% of which HATE Americans, than the impacts that this deal could have on US citizens. The Ayatollah has already stated that they will not follow or listen to what the US has to say. I bet ya'll don't believe that "All Lives Matter" either. What a crock.

Enough... Not saying anymore about it. My entire point with my post was that WE DO NOT NEED A Major HURRICANE IN THE GULF!!!!! I'm out.


You left out the part where we overthrew their government in 1954 , because of :
Drum roll please !

The Oil Business.
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



Iranians are actually very open to the West and Western culture. Take your misconceptions elsewhere, throwing liberal around like its a bad word is just childish.


The Arab Spring was/is very real in terms of the younger generations living in the Middle East (that have not been radicalized by the religious right-conservatives in their own countries) today. Tons of Iranians studied here in America from the 70's through the 80's (courtesy of the cushy relationship between the Shah and America) and many decided to stay in the US (many being able to convert from student visas to residency ones because of advanced degrees in engineering and other fields where US tech employers were hungry for qualified workers). Many of those students who went back actually have fond memories of the US and would like to see normalized relations.

However (and tying it back to weather-climate change), one of the primary reasons for US involvement in the Middle East has been because of Western oil dependence. American energy independence, the end of oil from Middle Eastern reserves in the coming decades, and "hopeful" transitions toward more renewable energy sources will change the geo-political dynamics of the past 40 years going into the future. I have not read the Iran-US deal so I cannot comment, intelligently, on whether it is good or bad political slogans aside...............
Quoting 406. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 390. HimacaneBrees:

A three word history of the oil business -

BOOM and BUST

The words "the oil" while topical in your response are superfluous historically. ;-)
12z Euro





410. HimacaneBrees

If the Iranians had done the same to us , trust me, you'd remember what happened in 1954.
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



Iranians are actually very open to the West and Western culture. Where do you get this stuff from? Take your misconceptions elsewhere, throwing liberal around like its a bad word is just childish.
With the +10 we know who the Liberals are!
Quoting 402. FOREX:

I just had a long and detailed discussion with my Tropical Crystal Ball and here are the findings. "No Major tropical system to affect the Gulf until 2019."

I truly would not be surprised if that indeed proves to be the case at this point.
From Neven's site -




The whole Arctic is adrift, Eli. MODIS images show the last large intact expanses of thick ice have broken away from the northeast Canadian archipelago. The 2 large blocks of thick ice are moving and the east block is shattering. There's going to be nothing left but shattered mobile ice. The thickest ice in the Arctic has been pulverized.

This doesn't bode well. One more hot summer after this one and little will remain in September.

-Geroge aka FishOutofWater


Link
Quoting 397. ACSeattle:


Yes, much better to rain bombs on a country of 80 million. A war in the Middle East. What could possibly go wrong?

I guess this went over my head. Would you make mind elaborating?



Investors could lose $4.2tn due to impact of climate change, report warns

Private investors stand to lose $4.2tn (£2.7tn) on the value of their holdings from the impact of climate change by 2100 even if global warming is held at plus 2C, a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has warned.

If firm action is not taken at the forthcoming climate change talks in Paris and the Earth’s temperature warms by a further 5C then investors are facing losses of almost $7tn at today’s prices, new research shows.

This is more than the total current market capitalisation of the London Stock Exchange with impacts on company holdings that will come not just through extreme weather damage but also through lower economic growth.


The report argued that financial regulators should properly recognise “systematic environmental risk”. It also called for a proper carbon price to be established as well as a tough new climate change treaty to be agreed in Paris.

The latest assessments of the rising risks posed to the global financial system lends enormous new weight to those who are already arguing that companies must be made to disclose their carbon emissions.

“Investors currently face a stark choice. Either they will experience impairments to their holdings in fossil fuel companies should robust regulatory action on climate change take place, or they will face substantial losses across the entire portfolio of manageable assets should little mitigation be forthcoming,” said Brian Gardner, the editor of an EIU report, entitled The cost of inaction: recognising the value at risk from climate change.

The $4.2tn figure is roughly the equivalent to the value of the world’s publicly listed oil and gas companies or the annual gross domestic product of Japan, the world’s third largest economy.


Nick Robins, co-director of the Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System at the UN Environment Programme said that financial markets are not treating the threat posed by climate change seriously enough. “We wouldn’t get on a plane if there was a 5% chance of the plane crashing,” he said. “But we’re treating the climate with that same level of risk in a very offhand, complacent way.”

The EIU concludes that there are widespread opportunities for investors to reduce their exposure to environmental risk – one way is to invest in projects that finance a transition to a lower carbon economy.

But it also believes that climate change is likely to represent “an obstacle” for many asset owners and managers to fulfil their fiduciary duties to act in the best interests of those who lend their cash to invest.

According to estimates by the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, only 7% of asset owners calculate the carbon footprint of their investment portfolios and only 1.4% have an explicit target to reduce it.

Bank of England warns of huge financial risk from fossil fuel investments

The EIU follows warnings from the Bank of England about the financial risks posed to fossil fuel companies if global climate action renders their reserves of oil, coal and gas worthless. On Thursday, a report from the London assembly warned that the city was particularly vulnerable to financial risks posed by climate change because its economy is particularly well-connected globally.

Quoting 418. Kenfa03:


I guess this went over my head. Would you make mind elaborating?


Better to push Iran back to one year for breakthrough time than the two months they are at now than to abandon a deal, attack Iran and let the cards fall where they may. Remember when we attacked Iraq and Cheney said it'd be over in weeks not months? What could possibly go wrong? Well see Iraq for those answers. Barak Obama had a mandate to get out of Iraq. Why ISIS had the vacuum they did to thrive. Listening to the American people is not always a wise thing to do for a president.
Another new article (speaking of renewable energy vs. fossil fuels):

http://news.sciencemag.org/chemistry/2015/07/cool -new-material-could-make-fuel-cells-cheaper


It’s not enough for a new alternative energy technology to work. It also has to be cheap enough to compete with traditional fossil fuels. That’s been a high hurdle for devices called solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) that convert fuels—such as methane and hydrogen—directly to electricity without burning them. But now researchers report that they’ve come up with a new recipe for making key components in one type of SOFC more cheaply, which could sharply lower its overall cost.

The change nearly doubled the power output produced by a single hydrogen SOFC, the researchers report in the current issue of Science. Not only that, but the new cells also matched the output of oxygen ion–conducting cells. What's more, the new BZY cells work best at about 500°C, the sweet spot temperature targeted by the fuel cell industry.

O’Hayre and Haile caution that the new advance won’t revolutionize the SOFC industry overnight. Thus far, O’Hayre’s group has produced just individual cells. Commercial devices, by contrast, work by wiring many such devices together into what’s known as a fuel cell “stack” that generates more power. If future BZY-based SOFC stacks work as well as the individual devices, then it could finally produce the tipping point the fuel cell industry has been looking for.

Quoting 322. FLWeatherFreak91:

Major event for sure. I live in Odessa along 54 and I've had some standing water in my yard for the past 10 days or so. As of right now, water is about 3 inches from the slab of my house and about to come into the garage. It's "only" rained 2.5" here so far today, and I'm afraid if these rainfall totals come to fruition there will be a lot of homes flooding in this area. My three acre lot has literally been completely submerged twice since I moved here in the mid 90s- in December 1998 and in Feb of 2005. The way the yard looks right now, I'm expecting the third by Monday :/


Geeze man, that doesn't sound good, you might want to consider getting sand bags, no joke, the NWS has extended rain chances to above normal through the entire forecast period in response to model guidance trending towards above average rainfall. They originally had drying by Monday or Tuesday but guidance is quickly heading away from that, especially the euro which has areas of low pressure and 15-25 inches across West Central Florida over the long term. While it's too early to buy into such an event, just the fact it's showing such an insane forecast for us is cause for concern. Even the GFS which isn't nearly as bullish as the euro still has 5-10 inches of rain, and all the other major models out there go nuts on rainfall totals.

Btw I've had 2.14 in Central Pinellas so far today, we didn't really get any training, just one really intense band of heavy thunderstorms with incredible downpours blew through with 3 hours of steady rain and a few small passing downpours after. I couldn't believe how heavy the rain accumulated already considering how fast the line was moving. It came through around 11 AM-12 noon yet the street lights came on because the rain was so heavy.

Stay safe and stay dry, tomorrow and maybe even Sunday will likely be worse than today, so be prepared to leave in case things get out of control flooding wise at your place.
Iraq’s Government, Not Obama, Called Time on the U.S. Troop Presence
By Tony Karon @tonykaronOct. 21, 2011



In one of his final acts in office, President Bush in December of 2008 had signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Iraqi government that set the clock ticking on ending the war he’d launched in March of 2003. The SOFA provided a legal basis for the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq after the United Nations Security Council mandate for the occupation mission expired at the end of 2008. But it required that all U.S. forces be gone from Iraq by January 1, 2012, unless the Iraqi government was willing to negotiate a new agreement that would extend their mandate. And as Middle East historian Juan Cole has noted, “Bush had to sign what the [Iraqi] parliament gave him or face the prospect that U.S. troops would have to leave by 31 December, 2008, something that would have been interpreted as a defeat… Bush and his generals clearly expected, however, that over time Washington would be able to wriggle out of the treaty and would find a way to keep a division or so in Iraq past that deadline.”
Not sure whether these might have been posted already, but this is an HDR image from the Hutchinson, Kansas, tornado on July 13th:

Click for larger image:

(Image courtesy of Hans Mast w/ Dietrich Mast)

And, as a bonus, this image of the same tornado taken from the unusual perspective of a passing airplane:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
We really,really need a storm in the open Atlantic to track that's Kinda like Bill(2009)...
Quoting 422. DeepSeaRising:



Better to push Iran back to one year for breakthrough time than the two months they are at now than to abandon a deal, attack Iran and let the cards fall where they may. Remember when we attacked Iraq and Cheney said it'd be over in weeks not months? What could possibly go wrong? Well see Iraq for those answers. Barak Obama had a mandate to get out of Iraq. Why ISIS had the vacuum they did to thrive. Listening to the American people is not always a wise thing to do for a president.

Thanks
Quoting 408. ColoradoBob1:



You left out the part where we overthrew their government in 1954 , because of :
Drum roll please !

The Oil Business.
people tend to overlook that dont they... big oil just doesnt seem to have the worlds best interest at heart
000
FXUS62 KTBW 241954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A WET WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA...A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SPRAWLED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE TOUGHED DOWN TO FL AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE - HIGH
PRESSURE RADIATED OUTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...A FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FROM MO/AR THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TO ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID
ATLANTIC RIDGED THROUGH THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE CANADAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO QUEBEC...FLATTENING
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN AND
DEEPEN THE TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO FL. THE FRONTAL
TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES SOUTH OF THE KEYS.

THE RIDGE STAYING TO THE SOUTH AND THE TROUGHING...SURFACE AND
ALOFT...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND VERY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL PWAT VALUES
ALL RUN ABOVE 2 INCHES AND CONTAIN A SWATH OF HIGHER VALUES...UP TO
2.4 INCHES...THAT SETTLES IN WITH THE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH 4-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THESE AMOUNTS AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE FLOODING THREAT. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE DRIFTING DOWN INTO THE AREA HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD AND ALSO SOUTH...AS FAR SOUTH AS
SARASOTA...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
CONTINUE TO RUN WARM...IN THE WEST FLOW. HOWEVER THE HIGHS STAY
BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE RAIN AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE H500 TROF EXTENDING BACK
SOUTHWEST ALONG A SURFACE TROF AND A BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALONG THE SURFACE TROF SMALL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST. THIS WET PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH RAINY PERIODS EXPECTED THAT WILL
EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS INTO NEXT WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY THE
MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE FOCUS ON
CENTRAL FL. THE FORECAST REFLECTS ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIP
OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUED CHANCE POPS SOUTH.
WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.


&&