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June 2015: Earth's Warmest June on Record

By: Jeff Masters 4:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2015

June 2015 was Earth's warmest June since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. NASA also rated June 2015 as the warmest June on record. June 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - June) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continues to intensify, and strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it likely that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record. Four of the six warmest months in recorded history (for departure from average) have occurred this year, according to NOAA:

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from average
1) 0.90°C, Mar 2015
1) 0.90°C, Feb 2015
3) 0.89°C, Jan 2007
4) 0.88°C, June 2015
5) 0.87°C, Feb 1998
6) 0.86°C, May 2015
7) 0.85°C, Mar 2010
8) 0.84°C, Dec 2014
9) 0.83°C, Nov 2013
9) 0.83°C, Apr 2010


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for the globe for 12-month periods ending in June each year, starting in 1880 and ending in 2015. There is no evidence of a long term slow-down in global warming. Image credit: NOAA.

For the oceans, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average, the highest for June on record, and tied with September 2014 as the highest monthly departure from average for any month. Nine of the ten highest monthly departures from average have occurred since May 2014. Global land temperatures during June 2015 were also the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 3rd warmest in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of several months--as occurred during the El Niño events of 1998 and 2010. Thus, we should see Earth's lower atmosphere temperature hit record levels late this year and/or early next year.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for June 2015, the warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth occurred across the western United States, parts of northern South America, several regions in central to western Africa, central Asia around and to the east of the Caspian Sea, and parts of southeastern Asia. Western Greenland and some areas in India and China were cooler than average, and northern Pakistan was much cooler than average. Over the oceans, record warmth was observed across much of the northeastern and equatorial Pacific as well as parts of the equatorial and southern Indian Ocean, various regions of both the North and South Atlantic Ocean, and the Barents Sea to the northeast of Scandinavia. Only part of the North Atlantic between Greenland and the United Kingdom was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Deadliest weather disaster of June 2015: Pakistan's brutal heat wave
The deadliest weather-related disaster of June 2015 was an intense heat wave in Pakistan that killed approximately 1,242 people. If these numbers are correct, this year's heat wave would beat the 1991 heat wave (523 deaths) as Pakistan's deadliest in recorded history, and would rank as Earth's eighth deadliest heat wave, according to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. The terrible heat wave that hit India in May 2015 ranks as Earth's fifth deadliest heat wave:

The 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 2,500
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) Pakistan, 2015: 1,242
9) India, 2003: 1,210
10) India, 2002: 1,030
10) Greece and Turkey, 1987: 1,030


Figure 3. Pakistanis receive ice outside a hospital during heatwave in Karachi on June 24, 2015. A state of emergency was declared in hospitals. Image credit : RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP/Getty Images.

By the time summer is over, it is possible that a third heat wave may be added to this list: the on-going European heat wave. Excess mortality in France, the U.K., and Italy during the late June to early July portion of Europe's 2015's heat wave was over 1,200 people: 700 in France, at least 447 in the U.K., and 140 in Italy. Hundreds more probably died in surrounding countries, during some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Western Europe. Direct deaths, not excess mortality, are tabulated in the EM-DAT database for heat waves, though, and direct deaths can be a factor of eight less than deaths tabulated by considering excess mortality, as I discussed in more detail in my May 29 post on the heat wave in India. For example, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and EM-DAT list the total direct deaths from the U.S. heat wave of 1980 at 1,260, but NCDC estimated that the combined direct and indirect deaths (i.e., excess mortality) due to heat stress was 10,000. Extreme heat capable of causing high excess mortality will affect portions of Southeast Europe late this week, when some of the highest temperatures on record will likely occur.



One billion-dollar weather disaster in June 2015: flooding in China
Thankfully, only one billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth last month, according to the June 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: flooding in China that caused $2 billion in damage and killed sixteen people. With eight billion-dollar weather disasters occurring during the first half of 2015, Earth is on pace for its lowest number of such disasters since 2004, when sixteen occurred.


Disaster 1. Severe thunderstorms and torrential seasonal Mei-Yu rains rains inundated northern and southern sections of China on June 7 - 11, killing 16 people and doing at least $2 billion in damage. The provincial regions of Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei, and Gansu were the most severely impacted, with more than 20,000 homes damaged. In this picture, we see houses along a river submerged in floodwaters in Kaili in Qiandongnan, southwest China's Guizhou province on June 8, 2015. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

Arctic sea ice falls to 3rd lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June 2015 was the 3rd lowest in the 36-year satellite record, and June snow cover was the 2nd lowest, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A large area of high pressure that has set up shop north of Alaska is expected to persist for the remainder of July, and is likely to bring sunny skies and a warm flow of air into the Arctic that will lead to rapid ice loss in the coming weeks. Later this month, low pressure is expected to develop over Northeastern Eurasia, which could lead to the establishment of the Arctic Dipole pattern. This pattern of airflow develops in response to high pressure north of Alaska and low pressure over Northeastern Eurasia, and brings large amounts of warm air into the Arctic. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all the summer months of 2007, and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (that record was beaten in 2012, a year that did not feature an Arctic Dipole pattern.)

Notable global heat and cold marks set for June 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 51.7°C (125.1°F) at Death Valley, California, U.S., June 30
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -30.0°C (-22.0°F) at Summit, Greenland, June 1
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 38.1°C (100.6°F) at Bacabal, Brazil, June 15
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -81.3°C (-114.3°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, June 21

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in June 2015
Mercedes, Uruguay, min, -8.2°C, June 19
Durazno, Uruguay, min, -6.8°C, June 19
Pukaki Aerodrome, New Zealand, min, -19.8°C, June 23
Omarama, New Zealand, min, -21.0°C,  June 24
Cartagena, Colombia, max. 40.4°C,  June 24
Santa Marta, Colombia, max, 38.6°C, June 24
Arjona, Colombia, max, 40°C, June 24
Urumitia, Colombia, max, 42.0°C, June 27
Riohacha, Colombia, max, 40.0°C, June 29
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, max., 47.2°C, June 29



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of July 20, 2015, nine nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history thus far in 2015, and one (Israel) has set an all-time cold temperature record. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the all-time national or territorial heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Germany set its national heat record on July 5, when the mercury soared to 40.3°C (104.5°F) at the Kitzingen station in Bavaria.
Vietnam tied its national heat record of 42.7°C (108.9°F) at Con Cuong on May 30.
Palau tied its national heat record of 34.4°C (94.0°F) at Koror Airport on May 14.
Venezuela set a new national heat record of 43.6°C (110.5°F) at Coro on April 29. Previous record: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Machiques, Zulia State in February 1983.
Laos tied its national heat record of 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Thakhek on April 20.
Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This is the third time this year Ghana has tied or set a new all-time heat record. Previous records: 43.1°C (109.6°F), set the previous day, on April 9, and 43.0°C (109.4°F) on February 12.
Cocos Islands (Australian territory) tied their all-time heat record with 32.8°C (91.0°F) on April 8.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17. Previous record: 35.3°C (95.5°F) at Malabo in February 1957.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.

Israel set a new national cold record of -14.2°C (6.4°F) at Merom Golan on January 10.

Special Mentions:
Antarctica set a new heat record for its mainland of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent. Note that this is a record for mainland Antarctica, not a territorial or continental record. The all-time maximum record for the continent and territory of Antarctica is 19.8°C (67.6°F) on January 30, 1982, in Signy Island, South Orkney, an island group located about 450 miles northeast of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost portion of mainland Antarctica. Geologically, the South Orkney are on the Antarctic plate, and politically, they are part of Antarctica. This record was improperly listed as a territorial record for Antarctica in last month's global summary.

Switzerland had its highest reliably measured temperature on record in Geneva on July 7, when the mercury hit 103.5°F (39.7°C). The only higher temperature ever measured in the country was a 106.7°F (41.5°C) reading on August 11, 2003 at Grono. As reported at the Swiss news site swissinfo.ch, this old record was achieved "using an old measurement technique of weather huts, which generally recorded temperatures a few degrees higher than modern instruments." Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera agrees that this year's 39.7°C reading in Geneva is the highest reliably measured temperature ever in Switzerland, though the August 11, 2003 temperature at Grono was probably warmer (near 40°C), after correcting for the known problems with the site.

Mr. Herrera originally listed Samoa as tying its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau, but a subsequent review of the record revealed possible issues with the measurement equipment, so this record is dubious.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for June 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in June 2015" sections.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
June ended up being one of our warmest here.Somewhere in the top 10 and the heat has been fierce and early this year with huge rain falls.


The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future

By Chris Mooney July 20 at 10:37 AM

James Hansen has often been out ahead of his scientific colleagues.

With his 1988 congressional testimony, the then-NASA scientist is credited with putting the global warming issue on the map by saying that a warming trend had already begun. “It is time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here,” Hansen famously testified. Since then, he has drawn headlines for accusing the Bush administration of trying to muzzle him, getting arrested protesting the Keystone XL Pipeline, and setting forward the case for why carbon dioxide levels need to be kept below 350 parts per million in the atmosphere (they’re currently around 400).

Now Hansen — who retired in 2013 from his NASA post, and is currently an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute — is publishing what he says may be his most important paper. Along with 16 other researchers — including leading experts on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets — he has authored a lengthy study outlining an scenario of potentially rapid sea level rise combined with more intense storm systems.

It’s an alarming picture of where the planet could be headed — and hard to ignore, given its author. But it may also meet with considerable skepticism in the scientific community, given that its scenarios of sea level rise occur more rapidly than those ratified by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its latest assessment of the state of climate science, published in 2013.

“We conclude that 2°C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous,” note Hansen and his co-authors. 2 degrees Celsius is a widely accepted international target for how much the world should limit global warming.

The research is slated to appear this week in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access journal published by the European Geophysical Union in which much of the peer review process, in effect, happens in public — a paper is uploaded, and then other scientists submit comments on it, and then the authors respond.

The research takes, as one of its starting points, evidence regarding accelerating ice loss from some parts of the planet’s ice sheets, especially West Antarctica. One of Hansen’s co-authors on the new paper, Eric Rignot of NASA, was the lead author of a 2014 study suggesting that, as one NASA press release put it, the decline of West Antarctica could now be “irreversible.”


more:,...
Quoting 3. washingtonian115:

June ended up being one of our warmest here.Somewhere in the top 10 and the heat has been fierce and early this year with huge rain falls.
3 months of heat, with it starting in early May.
No surprise, Thanks Dr. Masters...
Looks like we finally get a shot at some rain here in Austin, Texas around August 1st. We haven't recorded any since July 3rd. Remarkably, we also haven't hit 100 degrees yet. Every day this month has been at least 90 degrees. Lowest temperature was 70 back on the 1st.

Of course no one's complaining. Finally able to dry out after the record rains we had earlier this year.
Thank You Dr. Here is our local information for the Tallahassee/Florida Big Bend Region from the local NWS office Summer 2015 Newsletter:

The climate for Tallahassee during the 3-month period of March through May was the hottest on record with an average temperature of 72.8 degrees, 5.9 above normal. All 3 months experienced above normal temperatures with April having the largest departure. In fact, April 2015 was the hottest April on record for Tallahassee with the average monthly temperature 7.8 degrees above normal! The main reason that April was so hot was due to the minimum" temperatures averaging 12.7 degrees above normal. The maximum temperature recorded at the Tallahassee Regional Airport during spring was 95 degrees which occurred on 5 days in May.


Thanks Doc..All that cold air and water around southern Greenland is from run off...Interesting to watch this happen starting a few years ago..Edit..The melt has been occurring for more than a few years to be sure..


Excellent blog Dr. Masters. Like Keep has been saying, 'faster and faster.'
June 2015 is the record hottest June in the northern hemisphere and the record hottest June in the southern hemisphere, according to NOAA
And here is a close-up, as noted below, of what I have coined as the North Atlantic/Greenland "poster child" for global warming in the form of the anomalous cold pool as the result of Greenland ice shelf melt:

On the topic of the blog, I am most amazed by the data from increasingly warm overnight lows.

This must be pure hell on public (or private) utility providers. I also suspect industrial farming of all varieties has had to adjust to this, or will have to adjust soon enough.

A good article from 2011 on the topic of warm nights is here -- with some good links included.

I have a hypothesis (back of napkin) that increasingly warm overnight lows will be a significant challenge for food production and utilities in developed countries -- a weakness in the armor that isolates us from some of the worst early effects of AGW, if you will.
July 2014 to June 2015 is the record hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, according to NOAA.
Afternoon all.

So far I can provide incidental proof that the heat is on in my part of the world ... even with heavy cloud cover this afternoon it's 86 feeling like 92 ...
Quoting 7. tornadodude:

Looks like we finally get a shot at some rain here in Austin, Texas around August 1st. We haven't recorded any since July 3rd. Remarkably, we also haven't hit 100 degrees yet. Every day this month has been at least 90 degrees. Lowest temperature was 70 back on the 1st.

Of course no one's complaining. Finally able to dry out after the record rains we had earlier this year.


Bad at my place in Galveston county, lawns are browning up and having to water every other day, not gonna cut my grass till we get rain. Don't care how high and ugly it gets, let it protect itself however it can.
Talked to some friends in San Diego last night.. they where so happy about the rain that lasted for hours instead of the trace amount all the local mets had forecasted. Hopefully they get a few more surprises like this before Fall.
Sorry to hear about the I-10 washing out.. that was our 'escape-route' when we moved outta SoCal in 2012. News articles indicate that an average of 200,000 vehicles use that stretch of road DAILY (and much of that is commercial traffic). Detours will add hours to trips but there will be some small towns that are going to make a killing with the added traffic this summer!
Quoting 15. ariot:

On the topic of the blog, I am most amazed by the data from increasingly warm overnight lows.

This must be pure hell on public (or private) utility providers. I also suspect industrial farming of all varieties has had to adjust to this, or will have to adjust soon enough.

A good article from 2011 on the topic of warm nights is here -- with some good links included.

I have a hypothesis (back of napkin) that increasingly warm overnight lows will be a significant challenge for food production and utilities in developed countries -- a weakness in the armor that isolates us from some of the worst early effects of AGW, if you will.


Galveston just had a record high low of 84 other day, tied from 2005
This won't be happening today xD


Wydrza Kępa, an island in the back delta of the river Swine in Poland. Photograph: Sandra Bartocha

Swamp power: how the world's wetlands can help stop climate change

From Asia’s peat swamp forests to Europe’s wetlands, swamp farming can provide valuable low-carbon energy, wildlife habitat and a means of depolluting waterways – and help reduce carbon emissions in the process


On a boat drifting through a swampy reed plantation in the Polish Baltic, Szymon Smolczyński surveys his blanket of green crops destined to heat northern European homes.

“Many animals have their homes in our reed fields,” he says. “There are thousands of wild boar in this area and plenty of roe deer too.”

The swampy reed plantations of Wolin Island may look like a tableaux from Europe’s distant past but if scientists, farmers and biotech companies are to be believed, this idyllic pastoral setting could be the face of a hi-tech and low carbon agricultural future.

The harvest can provide low carbon energy and home insulation, while at the same time offering a wildlife sanctuary, and a means of depolluting land and waters.

Maintaining the wetland is also key to reducing Europe’s carbon emissions. Peatland makes up just 3% of the continent’s agricultural land but, because of poor management and degradation, is responsible for more than 90% of CO2 emissions from farming.

Globally, ‘paludiculture’ (literally, swamp cultivation) could also help to save the world’s disappearing peat swamp forests, which account for around 5% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and an immeasurable loss in biodiversity.

Peatland is waterlogged land with a 30cm top layer of decomposing plant material. Conventional use of the land in agriculture requires draining and clearing, which releases locked in CO2 back into the atmosphere and degrades the land.

“Paludiculture could turn the tide on deforestation in the most literal sense of the phrase,” said Professor Hans Joosten of Germany’s Greifswald University.

“Most peatlands in south-east Asia are drained for oil palm and pulp wood plantations. But almost all of them are located close to the sea, just a few metres above sea level. Because drained peatlands are associated with subsidence of around 5cm a year, unless we start to change towards paludiculture, most drained peatlands currently under use will be swallowed by the sea and lost.”

Joosten estimates that replacing palm oil and acacia plantations in south-east Asia with wet cultivation could cut 500 megatonnes of CO2 emissions, the equivalent of 1-2% of annual global emissions.

Researchers have identified more than 1,500 substitute species that could be grown in rewetted tropical zones, including nut, rubber and gum trees. Because swamp crops can be grown on marginal land – and substitute for food staples – the damaging effects of indirect land use change can be avoided. Pilot schemes are already underway in Indonesia to investigate their potential.

Earlier this month, the gold-standard Ramsar Convention on wetlands of international importance adopted a motion encouraging paludiculture as a way of avoiding carbon emissions. It singled out biomass grown on rewetted organic soil as a promising option for climate change mitigation.

Along the Baltic coasts of Germany and Poland, a small but growing band of farmers are already making use of conservation subsidies and research grants to move in this direction.

Hans Voigt, a reed farmer in Mecklenburg, northern Germany said that many sharecroppers were thinking of joining a subsidised scheme to provide waste straw and reed residues.

In 20 years, seven species of breeding birds have been reintroduced to his farmland, he said proudly. Voigt and another farmer on a nearby island produce around 2,300 tonnes of biomass per year for a local biorefinery between them.

“This habitat is perfect for birds as the reeds control water levels and are cut every year,” said Marek Dylawerski, a local bird conservation officer. “It is the last chance to save critically endangered species like the aquatic warbler in this part of Europe. The next breeding ground is 700km to the east.”

For Smolczyński, organic reed farming to thatch roofs and insulate homes is a way of life, passed down from his father and grandfather before him.

The family’s Dach Reed farm covers around 250 sq km of land on Wolin island, and in nearby Rozwarowo. These lands were rewetted and recultivated in the 1990s, to be used by local farmers for grazing. The effects on local wildlife were dramatic.

Since the 1990s, annual migratory bird populations have soared tenfold to 4-5,000, while the number of species observed and nesting on the island have roughly doubled.

Alfred Smolczy ski at Seiga reed harvester - in the background reed houses. Facebook Twitter Pinterest
Alfred Smolczyński harvests the reed crop. Photograph: Sandra Bartocha
Light tractors with six super-wide wheels harvest the crops, bouncing along the slippery surface but causing little damage to the reeds underneath.

Subsidies the farm receives from the EU’s Life project forbid pesticide use but Szymon’s father, Alfred Smolczyński, says he would not use them anyway: “If we grew more reeds in a different way, there would be less nature, birds and plants on this field. We must not destroy the field in which we and the next generation will live.”

Instead, the Dach Reed project is planning to expand the use of reeds as a natural river cleaner, absorbing nitrogen, phosphorous and other pollutants from nearby waterways.

more:,.....
NASA Ocean Motion Site gives ocean temps region to region..




Dramatic Photo Of Earth Is First To Show Entire Sunlit Side Of Planet
Headshot of David Freeman
David Freeman
Senior Science Editor,


Dramatic photos of Earth from space are nothing new, but NASA swears you've never seen anything like this.

A camera aboard the space agency's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite has captured what's being called the first photo ever to show the entire sunlit side of the Earth.

The space agency is calling the astonishing image "EPIC" -- a play on the abbreviation for the camera's formal name, the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera.

Taken on July 6, 2015, the image is a mash-up of three separate images taken from a distance of 1 million miles. The scattering of sunlight by air molecules gives the image a bluish cast, but scientists are working to remove this in subsequent renderings.

NASA plans to begin publishing a daily series of photos of the Earth, all taken by EPIC, by September 2015.

The DSCOVR spacecraft represents a partnership between NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was launched Feb. 11, 2015.

From The Huffington Post:

Kids Are Why We Should Care About Climate Change

by Capt. Trevor Greene

As a husband and father of two children I am deeply concerned about the kind of world they are going to live in when they grow up. I have often despaired in recent years about the terrible environmental legacy my generation will be leaving them, so I was heartened when I read of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's agenda at the G7 summit she hosted last month.

She hoped to set an ambitious goal in the run-up to the next UN climate change summit in Paris in November. Merkel proposed that her fellow leaders make a broad, iron-clad commitment to a low-carbon economy by 2050. But my heart sank when I saw that Prime Minister Stephen Harper had joined forces with the right-wing Japanese prime minister to push that deadline to the end of the century. By then, my two-year-old son could be warning his grandchildren not to swim in the acid bath that is the Pacific Ocean, while waxing nostalgically about the long extinct polar bear.

[...]

Harper has decimated key departments at the Fisheries and Oceans, destroyed valuable research libraries and muzzled our top-calibre scientists, and year after year has won Canada the dubious distinction of being designated "fossil of the year" on climate change.

One of the slogans I've seen on buttons handed out by the Green Party is "Because, KIDS." For me, that is the heart of the environmental issue, and my motivation for writing about climate change and trying to raise awareness of the seriousness of this crisis that threatens our very survival as a species. How can Harper, who has children of his own, be so blind to what faces them in their future? Does he really believe, as his finance minister Joe Oliver famously stated, that this is a problem for his granddaughter to solve? And for that matter, how can any of us with children and grandchildren refuse to take action on this issue if we care about their future?

Because, kids -- that says it all.

Complete article >>
This very strong El-Nino coupled with an unusual Sea Surface pattern across the Pacific is causing lots of heat to be released into the atmosphere. You watch California & FL will have a hefty price to pay for this in a few months. With today's 1.7C reading across Nino 3.4 there is no question we are heading for Super Nino status and fast. Once this next Kelvin Wave becomes fully realized in a few weeks that is when we surpass 1997 across Nino 3.4 for good.

Also the MDR should be labeled the Main Dead Region as the SST's across the Atlantic are literally the kiss of death for this region. Looking like all system will be @ 20N & higher.

28. JRRP

SYNOPSIS 2015070000

P09L
10N, 12E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Weak pouch while over west Africa for the next several days; however, it is easier to track than many over that region over the last few years. Pouch moisture, for the most part, increases slightly as P09L approaches the west African coast, then decreases on Day 5 over the eastern Atlantic.

GFS: Stronger than yesterday’s forecast. Dips a little farther to the south than ECMWF before exiting Africa on a WNW track.
Just to compare:

July 20th 1992 - 9 TS 6 H 5 MH


July 20th 2015 - 8 TS 4 H 3 MH


July 20th 1985 - 8 TS 2 H 2 MH


July 20th 1982 - 6 TS 2 H 2 MH


July 20th 2014 - 7 TS 2 H 2 MH


July 20th 1983 - 6 TS 2 H 1 MH


July 20th 1984 - 7 TS 6 H 3 MH


July 20th 1990 - 7 TS 5 H 0 MH


Some hot post, doc ;-) Thanks!

Here's Europe's temperature outlook for the coming days which sums up the current heatwave in the Mediterranean:


Source.
Quoting 29. pablosyn:

Just to compare:

July 20th 1992 - 9 TS 6 H 5 MH


July 20th 2015 - 8 TS 4 H 3 MH


July 20th 1985 - 8 TS 2 H 2 MH


July 20th 1982 - 6 TS 2 H 2 MH


July 20th 2014 - 7 TS 2 H 2 MH


July 20th 1983 - 6 TS 2 H 1 MH


July 20th 1984 - 7 TS 6 H 3 MH


July 20th 1990 - 7 TS 5 H 0 MH





El-Nino is already effecting South America with floods and tornadoes. Has any of this been in your area?
Remembering this day 46 years ago when we left the cradle, into the bigger Universe we live in.

Apollo 11 Neil,Mike and Buzz July 16-24 1969.

We came in peace for all Mankind.



Image of "Buzz" Aldrin on the LEM, photo crdit: Neil Armstrong
Quoting 15. ariot:

On the topic of the blog, I am most amazed by the data from increasingly warm overnight lows.

This must be pure hell on public (or private) utility providers. I also suspect industrial farming of all varieties has had to adjust to this, or will have to adjust soon enough.

A good article from 2011 on the topic of warm nights is here -- with some good links included.

I have a hypothesis (back of napkin) that increasingly warm overnight lows will be a significant challenge for food production and utilities in developed countries -- a weakness in the armor that isolates us from some of the worst early effects of AGW, if you will.

As the oceans and atmosphere warm, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere increases. This causes dew points to rise. At night, as the temperature falls to the dew point, large amounts of heat (aprox. 3.8 kilocalories/gram) are released as dew begins to form. This effectively brakes the fall in air temperature, that is, higher dew points result in higher overnight lows.
Looks like we finally get a shot at some rain here in Austin, Texas around August 1st. We haven't recorded any since July 3rd. Remarkably, we also haven't hit 100 degrees yet. Every day this month has been at least 90 degrees. Lowest temperature was 70 back on the 1st.

Of course no one's complaining. Finally able to dry out after the record rains we had earlier this year


here in el paso...we've almost met our monthly rain average already...and while the country roasts....we've been at just about average for the month.....typically july sees an average of 10 days above 100 degrees...so far we've seen only 1...and depending on who's 10 day forecast you use only one or 2 more chances by the end of the month
Quoting 574. StormTrackerScott:

If the Euro pans out not out of the question the US could have a developing hurricane just off FL moving north. Like I said many times before I am more concerned this year compared to years passed due to all these in close developments. Now is the time where could see these systems rapidly spin up close to home and cause serious problems. MDR remains dead and will more than likely remain that way going forward.





Well, whether a tropical storm develops in the gulf or not, obviously too early to say we need more model support and consistency before we go believing in a tropical storm landfall in the east gulf, but the last big rainfall output from the euro for this last weeks rain event turned out to be surprisingly accurate. Average rain amounts near the coast from the Tampa Bay area up through the big bend was 5-10 inches with locally as much as 13-14 inches with that event, which was similar to what the euro was showing several days out.


Now, model guidance is showing the exact same pattern as last time, with an east coast trough coming down across Florida, with the mid level trough eventually moving out, leaving the surface trough across Central FL behind with another heavy coastal rain event on Florida's gulf coast.

Now, it looks like the Euro is showing less shear this time around, which is probably why it's spinning up a TC. If a low shear environment were to exist with the surface trough, it's reasonable to believe a TC could develop. As you remember, falling pressures from all that gulf convection on Thursday and Friday did lead to a weak surface low that formed in the gulf about 100 mi SW of Cedar Key. It never had a chance to organize deep convection and develop though due to strong upper level shear.

Again though, way too early to look at it as anything more than something fun to watch.
Thanks for the update Doc! With a super Nino on the doorstep, I suspect these readings may be considered cool in a few short months...
Noticing a few things MIA ...

1. Gro
2. Sar
3. WPB
4. Rain in Houston. We have a "maybe" chance of a pop up shower here and there but I'm not holding my breath,
Noticed that it was over 100 here yesterday, that is if WU records are correct.
Read is a bit macabre:

Melting glaciers reveal their past
As globe warms, melting glaciers revealing more than bare earth
Monday, 20 July 2015
As the once-frozen world emerges from slumber, it’s
yielding relics, debris – and corpses – that have lain hidden for decades, even millennia.
Quoting 35. Jedkins01:




Well, whether a tropical storm develops in the gulf or not, obviously too early to say we need more model support and consistency before we go believing in a tropical storm landfall in the east gulf, but the last big rainfall output from the euro for this last weeks rain event turned out to be surprisingly accurate. Average rain amounts near the coast from the Tampa Bay area up through the big bend was 5-10 inches with locally as much as 13-14 inches with that event, which was similar to what the euro was showing several days out.


Now, model guidance is showing the exact same pattern as last time, with an east coast trough coming down across Florida, with the mid level trough eventually moving out, leaving the surface trough across Central FL behind with another heavy coastal rain event on Florida's gulf coast.

Now, it looks like the Euro is showing less shear this time around, which is probably why it's spinning up a TC. If a low shear environment were to exist with the surface trough, it's reasonable to believe a TC could develop. As you remember, falling pressures from all that gulf convection on Thursday and Friday did lead to a weak surface low that formed in the gulf about 100 mi SW of Cedar Key. It never had a chance to organize deep convection and develop though due to strong upper level shear.

Again though, way too early to look at it as anything more than something fun to watch.


Jed, did you ever get a chance to do more research on the weird dry slot that is the Tampa Airport reporting station? It has received less than 2.5” this month, while most of the Tampa Bay area is way beyond that total. It’s so bizarre that it is always the driest location in the area year after year. It would be nice if it was more representative of the area it is reporting on. I live 7 miles from the airport and I have received almost 6 inches more rain so far this calendar year.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 20m20 minutes ago
Weekly Nino 3 index at 2.3C. Only two El Ninos since 1950 have had monthly Nino 3 values >= 2.3C ('82-'83, '97-'98).
Quoting 40. tampabaymatt:



Jed, did you ever get a chance to do more research on the weird dry slot that is the Tampa Airport reporting station? It has received less than 2.5” this month, while most of the Tampa Bay area is way beyond that total. It’s so bizarre that it is always the driest location in the area year after year. It would be nice if it was more representative of the area it is reporting on. I live 7 miles from the airport and I have received almost 6 inches more rain so far this calendar year.
Pat of it has to be the subtle bay breeze that forms on days with a light e or se flow... that seems to concentrate most of the action to the north and west of the airport.
Quoting 40. tampabaymatt:



Jed, did you ever get a chance to do more research on the weird dry slot that is the Tampa Airport reporting station? It has received less than 2.5” this month, while most of the Tampa Bay area is way beyond that total. It’s so bizarre that it is always the driest location in the area year after year. It would be nice if it was more representative of the area it is reporting on. I live 7 miles from the airport and I have received almost 6 inches more rain so far this calendar year.


I haven't really looked at the Tampa region, but I know that when I lived in Corpus Christi the Bay and the Flow off the GOM made a big difference in precipitation. The north side of the bay would get daily thunderstorms, while the areas just south of the bay wouldn't get a drop.
We also have weird dry spots down here in Fort Myers . The last couple years, my location just S.E. of the city has been much drier than our official reporting station in the city.
12Z Euro very wet for FL thru 156hrs with over 5" in some areas and we are only half way thru the run! Also still has a developing TS off Fort Myers this weekend. Several runs in a row.
From one of the NOAA sites as related to the discussion on evening temps/dewpoints (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/nacem/)

Changes in extremes across North America have already been observed in recent decades. According to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008), "most of North America has been experiencing more unusually hot days and nights, fewer unusually cold days and nights and fewer frost days. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions". The North American Climate Extremes Monitoring (NACEM) product was developed to provide an accessible analysis tool that will help improve the understanding of observed changes in extreme climate conditions by providing users the ability to examine trends and occurrences of certain types of extreme or threshold events at the station-by-station level.
Quoting 40. tampabaymatt:



Jed, did you ever get a chance to do more research on the weird dry slot that is the Tampa Airport reporting station? It has received less than 2.5” this month, while most of the Tampa Bay area is way beyond that total. It’s so bizarre that it is always the driest location in the area year after year. It would be nice if it was more representative of the area it is reporting on. I live 7 miles from the airport and I have received almost 6 inches more rain so far this calendar year.

I've always been surprised by the same thing, and it's definitely not a coincidence. Tampa International airport is indeed a strange location, it's yearly average precip is listed by NOAA at 46.3, which makes it the only station in all of Central and South Florida to average less than 50 inches a year. Looking at other official Tampa Bay sites, the average between Clearwater, St. Petersburg, and Bradenton, is about 55 inches, ranging from 54 at St. Petersburg to 58 in Bradenton.

Somewhow Tampa International Airport averages nearly 10 inches less per year, which overall the difference between 46 and 55 isn't huge, it's still the same climate, but I don't understand why Tampa International airport often does get less. It's also the only site to not hit 100 outside of the keys in FL from what I'm aware of.

Even stranger than it's averages are indeed the records, from it's record high never hitting 100, to the fact that it's rainfall records are much lower. That is other official Tampa Bay area station's wettest years on record are about 15-20 inches higher than Tampa international, and also have much higher daily rainfall records than Tampa International. Tampa International's dries year on record is also much lower than other surrounding stations, to add to the weirdness even more.


For example, looking at the past few years, Tampa international has had a lot more recent years recording above 50 inches for the year, but other Tampa Bay area sites have also had more recent years of 60+ inches for the year, putting Tampa International still behind by about 10 inches compared to other sites in the area even with recent trends.

At my rain gauge, I've had 7.11 for July so far, for comparison, and have had 60.23 in the past 12 months.

Quoting 42. FLWeatherFreak91:

Pat of it has to be the subtle bay breeze that forms on days with a light e or se flow... that seems to concentrate most of the action to the north and west of the airport.
Not surprised the airport is in a dry slot ... better for landing in the summer ... but can one assume the airport builders were conscious of that at the time the airport was located? or was it mere serendipity?
Going to be possibly a interesting weekend either just west or east of FL as a possible TS looks like it may form on a old front across FL this weekend.
49. JRRP

tropical wave that emerges from africa will be fun to watch with this CCKW
12z

Hurricane mode is up with finally a real threat to FL potentially. Doesn't matter though if this system forms or not as there is going to be a tremendous amount of rain across FL if this Euro verifies. Been very consistent for several runs now.
Quoting 40. tampabaymatt:



Jed, did you ever get a chance to do more research on the weird dry slot that is the Tampa Airport reporting station? It has received less than 2.5” this month, while most of the Tampa Bay area is way beyond that total. It’s so bizarre that it is always the driest location in the area year after year. It would be nice if it was more representative of the area it is reporting on. I live 7 miles from the airport and I have received almost 6 inches more rain so far this calendar year.


Perhaps their reporting device is positioned beneath an aircraft. :)

Had the first significant rain here since July 5th. .95" and slowly climbing with a steady light rain after a 20 minute deluge earlier.
Quoting 20. RitaEvac:



Galveston just had a record high low of 84 other day, tied from 2005

DC metro had five consecutive nights above 80F in July 2013, a record.

Summers with very warm nights for much of the summer (2010-2012) destroy my lima beans. They just
don't set pods. In 2013 I did get some because August cooled dramatically and 2014 was a great bean year.
The jury is still out on 2015. I know I have some but density on the vines is below expected.

In 2010 no gardeners in my area (DC suburbs) got any lima beans. THey gave up and I was the only one who tried in 2011-2015. Lima beans were available at farmers markets from rural areas where the nights are cooler.


The difference between the mean temperatures in 2010-12 and 2014 was only a few degrees. The consequence of the warmth was near total failure of the beans to pollinate. A few degrees F increase
is likely in the next few decades. I'm wondering what else will go from productive to total failure with such
an increase.

2010-11 were good tomato years even though tomatoes are sensitive to heat. Plants were killed during extreme heat in 2012, the only year I've ever seen this although russett mites likely were the primary cause and heat weakening finished them off. Tomato pollen is reliably killed by temperatures over 40C and one day this warm will cause a 10 day fruiting gap four or five weeks later.
Quoting 38. txjac:

Noticing a few things MIA ...

1. Gro
2. Sar
3. WPB
4. Rain in Houston. We have a "maybe" chance of a pop up shower here and there but I'm not holding my breath,
Noticed that it was over 100 here yesterday, that is if WU records are correct.


Believe it or not I ran into rain Friday, Saturday, and Sunday driving within my area. But pathetic little cells that hardly show up on radar they're so small, otherwise all lawns are dying and ground cracking everywhere


Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:

Hurricane mode is up with finally a real threat to FL potentially. Doesn't matter though if this system forms or not as there is going to be a tremendous amount of rain across FL if this Euro verifies. Been very consistent for several runs now.


Scott, I just checked the Euro and there is a small area in Florida of accumulating rains on the 12z Euro and I dont see a tropical storm on the model? I looked at both Weatherbell and Levi's site. Is there another Euro version you are using?
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:



I haven't really looked at the Tampa region, but I know that when I lived in Corpus Christi the Bay and the Flow off the GOM made a big difference in precipitation. The north side of the bay would get daily thunderstorms, while the areas just south of the bay wouldn't get a drop.
We also have weird dry spots down here in Fort Myers . The last couple years, my location just S.E. of the city has been much drier than our official reporting station in the city.


Are you sure about Corpus Christi getting daily thunderstorms? Because it's average summer precip per month is about 2.5-3.5, which is what dry season average amounts are in a Tampa Bay in winter and Spring month. But overall, I get what you're saying though,
From Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal:

Peabody Coals World of Illusion



Clayton Aldern at GRIST has a look at the world of climate denial through eyes smeared with coal dust, and it’s rather frightening. You almost have to ask yourself if they really believe this stuff. Even when you make the “Upton Sinclair adjustment” (“It’s nearly impossible to convince someone of something when their paycheck depends on it not being so”), you are still left with the equivalent of someone holding their ears, while running through the house, and all the while screaming “No,No,No!!!!; I refuse to believe your frightening facts!!”.



The comments from Peabody were sent earlier this year to the White House Council on Environmental Quality. They were citing the reasons against considering greenhouse gas emissions in an analyses conducted under the National Environmental Policy Act. In their comments, they dropped a load of every crazy, discredited, kooky reason that has ever been thought up in their objection. It actually makes entertaining reading, and for those who are not well versed on atmospheric/climate science,the truth is the opposite of what they claim. This is not arguable by anyone living in the world of fact and reason, and the people who wrote that are in some kind of strange woo-woo land. It’s actually scary how the mind can fool you, and this alone is why scientific method is so valuable.

This actually has gotten me to thinking about labeling this kind of tortured belief system, and while I have tried not to use the label science deniers very often here, It is necessary to come up with a description of people who believe this kind of misinformation. These people prefer to be called skeptics, but this is without doubt the wrong term. Science teaches skepticism, but it does not teach ignorance of data, experiment, and overwhelming evidence.

Read more >>
The actual temperature is up to 98F at my house, with the heat index up to 113F. Potentially even higher values are possible tomorrow. The prospects of a cold and wet winter thanks to the ongoing El Nino cannot come quick enough.
Are you sure about Corpus Christi getting daily thunderstorms? Because it's average summer precip per month is about 2.5-3.5, which is what dry season average amounts are in a Tampa Bay in winter and Spring month. But overall, I get what you're saying though,



we had thunderstorms here in el paso 5 days last week....rainfall...less than a quarter inch
Quoting 55. ncstorm:





Scott, I just checked the Euro and there is a small area in Florida of accumulating rains on the 12z Euro and I dont see a tropical storm on the model? I looked at both Weatherbell and Levi's site. Is there another Euro version you are using?


Solid 850 vort in the same place as the last run maybe a tad east but either way very interesting as the Euro is picking up on Tropical potential beginning this weekend near FL could be east or west of the state. Very tricky!

Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:

Hurricane mode is up with finally a real threat to FL potentially. Doesn't matter though if this system forms or not as there is going to be a tremendous amount of rain across FL if this Euro verifies. Been very consistent for several runs now.

Scott, let's not go overboard. The potential for development either off the SE coastline or in the extreme NE Gulf is definitely there next week as a frontal boundary stalls out across the region, but to even begin talking about its intensity at this point is irresponsible.
Quoting 61. StormTrackerScott:



Solid 850 vort in the same place as the last run maybe a tad east but either way very interesting as the Euro is picking up on Tropical potential beginning this weekend near FL could be east or west of the state. Very tricky!




thanks..

I dont know if folks in florida would welcome a storm that could knock out power especially with the heat issues you guys are currently having..good luck!
From Levi's and NHC twitter page

New posting on NHC Inside the Eye blog - about naming a storm & issuing warnings before there's an actual storm.

One plan under consideration calls for NHC to produce a five-day track and intensity forecast for those disturbances having a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, and which pose the threat of bringing tropical-storm-force winds to land areas. The forecasts would be publicly issued through the standard NHC advisory products, including the Public Advisory, Discussion, and Wind Speed Probability Product, along with the forecast cone and the other standard graphics. These advisory packages would be issued at the normal advisory times, and continue until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds over land had diminished. If and when the disturbance became a tropical cyclone, advisory packages would simply continue.
Quoting 62. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Scott, let's not go overboard. The potential for development either off the SE coastline or in the extreme NE Gulf is definitely there next week as a frontal boundary stalls out across the region, but to even begin talking about its intensity at this point is irresponsible.


Did you read the post? I said whether if it develops or not doesn't matter as there is going to be a lot of rain. Hurricane mode as in a tropical threat.
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:



El-Nino is already effecting South America with floods and tornadoes. Has any of this been in your area?


Yes. Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms and Floods here in Rio Grande do Sul (South Brazil). Here in my city already rained more than 400 mm in just 20 days, this is the first time ever recorded that this happened here. Canoas (my city) is surrounded by rivers and streams and they are overflowing or already overflowing, as is the case of Rio Gravataí, on the border with Porto Alegre. In the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, area of Bage and Santa Maria are the most affected cities.

In Porto Alegre, already dropped more than 300 mm in some places, this is historic. The temperatures are very much above average. The sun will just appear in Wednesday and on Friday the rain will back again. In the last night, TWO hail storm affect Porto Alegre, the first one around 9:00 PM (July 19th) and the second one around 02:00 AM (July 20th). Isolated wind gusts recorded around 45 mph.

Weather Stations of the Municipality of Porto Alegre:


The neighborhood "Tristeza" already had 97,4 mm (3,83 inches) since 00h, not it's 04:00 PM.

Sapiranga, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil:


Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil:


Quoting 63. ncstorm:



thanks..

I dont know if folks in florida would welcome a storm that could knock out power especially with the heat issues you guys are currently having..good luck!


It's the humidity that zaps you. You walk outside and you can there is 2 plus PWATS in the air as the air just about as saturated as it can get around here. Nearly 10" so far for July here in Longwood NW of Orlando. We got hit hard again Saturday lots of rain with intense lightning while Orlando 10 miles SE is dry crazy the rain patterns across FL lately same areas keep getting hit while others stay dry. Never seen it like this.
let's not go overboard. The potential for development either off the SE coastline or in the extreme NE Gulf is definitely there next week as a frontal boundary stalls out across the region, but to even begin talking about its intensity at this point is irresponsible.


what?????......too early?????.....doggone it......i was already shuttered here in el paso just in case.....BOYS......TAKE EM DOWN!!!!!!


Quoting 66. pablosyn:



Yes. Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms and Floods here in Rio Grande do Sul (South Brazil). Here in my city already rained more than 400 mm in just 20 days, this is the first time ever recorded that this happened here. Canoas (my city) is surrounded by rivers and streams and they are overflowing or already overflowing, as is the case of Rio Gravata, on the border with Porto Alegre. In the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, area of Bage and Santa Maria are the most affected cities.

In Porto Alegre, already dropped more than 300 mm in some places, this is historic. The temperatures are very much above average. The sun will just appear in Wednesday and on Friday the rain will back again. In the last night, TWO hail storm affect Porto Alegre, the first one around 9:00 PM (July 19th) and the second one around 02:00 AM (July 20th). Isolated wind gusts recorded around 45 mph.

Weather Stations of the Municipality of Porto Alegre:


The neighborhood "Tristeza" already had 97,4 mm (3,83 inches) since 00h, not it's 04:00 PM.

Sapiranga, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil:


Esteio, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil:





Good indication of what's in store for the US. All these people saying the models were bull/hype aren't saying that now. Remember these posters in January, some of them are on now.
Quoting 58. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The actual temperature is up to 98F at my house, with the heat index up to 113F. Potentially even higher values are possible tomorrow. The prospects of a cold and wet winter thanks to the ongoing El Nino cannot come quick enough.
A cold and a wet winter are not a given though.I remember 1997 and 2006 well..Didn't have that much cold and snow.For 1998 it rained so much and we only had 0.01 for the season.
Quoting 58. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The actual temperature is up to 98F at my house, with the heat index up to 113F. Potentially even higher values are possible tomorrow. The prospects of a cold and wet winter thanks to the ongoing El Nino cannot come quick enough.


That's what my PWS says right now here in MD. For some reason I don't think I'll be able to do my normal 5-6 mile run today. :P
The Rio Grande do Sul State Governor has just declared a state of emergency due to floods and storms.
Quoting 71. Xyrus2000:



That's what my PWS says right now here in MD. For some reason I don't think I'll be able to do my normal 5-6 mile run today. :P


Try running in early AM (less ozone then also).

I couldn't run early morning.. just wasn't up to it. So I ran at midnight just before bed at FSU in summer. It was warmer but tolerable and I can unwind and go to sleep immediately after exercise so no problem there.

Ozone is a problem with afternoon running here although that's improved in the past few decades. I wouldn't run on sunny hot afternoons in MD because of fear of lung damage, hoarseness and coughing ( the last two were observed.. not just a fear)

Danny by Tuesday morning- if not before.

Somewhere between AL/MS border, and GA/SC border. NOT south of Cedar Key, FL.

wooof, pjp, woof.
re: post 66 pablosyn
E muito tristeza agora no Tristeza.
Quoting 69. StormTrackerScott:



Good indication of what's in store for the US. All these people saying the models were bull/hype aren't saying that now. Remember these posters in January, some of them are on now.


Yes. With El Niño rapidly intensefying and becoming a Super El Niño...these floods and storms will get worse here.
After a "near" record breaking June of monthly rainfall, I am being whiplashed right back into almost drought locally.  I've got some pretty big cracks in the ground and the ground is very hard. 
I dumped a little over 10" from May 28th to June1st, but the first 20 days of June for me now I have seen .6" of rain.  Most of that very early in the month.

Though it's only locally, everywhere else in the state of Illinois way above par once again. It's weird how every storm just dissipates before it gets here, and only here.




Danny by Tuesday morning- if not before.

Somewhere between AL/MS border, and GA/SC border. NOT south of Cedae Key, FL.

wooof, pjp, woof.


and there we have it folks......guess i'll have to tell the boys to put those shutters back up
We are just gonna have to find out! Nobody truly knows tomorrow.
Quoting 70. washingtonian115:

A cold and a wet winter are not a given though.I remember 1997 and 2006 well..Didn't have that much cold and snow.For 1998 it rained so much and we only had 0.01 for the season.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tend to be warmer than average throughout strong El Nino years. The Southeast is pretty consistently cooler and wetter than average.

Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:



Did you read the post? I said whether if it develops or not doesn't matter as there is going to be a lot of rain. Hurricane mode as in a tropical threat.

That's fine, but you also said in #574 that was quoted on this blog that "If the Euro pans out not out of the question the US could have a developing hurricane just off FL moving north." Seems pretty silly to say.
Quoting 53. georgevandenberghe:


DC metro had five consecutive nights above 80F in July 2013, a record.

Summers with very warm nights for much of the summer (2010-2012) destroy my lima beans. They just
don't set pods. In 2013 I did get some because August cooled dramatically and 2014 was a great bean year.
The jury is still out on 2015. I know I have some but density on the vines is below expected.

In 2010 no gardeners in my area (DC suburbs) got any lima beans. THey gave up and I was the only one who tried in 2011-2015. Lima beans were available at farmers markets from rural areas where the nights are cooler.


The difference between the mean temperatures in 2010-12 and 2014 was only a few degrees. The consequence of the warmth was near total failure of the beans to pollinate. A few degrees F increase
is likely in the next few decades. I'm wondering what else will go from productive to total failure with such
an increase.

2010-11 were good tomato years even though tomatoes are sensitive to heat. Plants were killed during extreme heat in 2012, the only year I've ever seen this although russett mites likely were the primary cause and heat weakening finished them off. Tomato pollen is reliably killed by temperatures over 40C and one day this warm will cause a 10 day fruiting gap four or five weeks later.

The deers are causing disaster with some of those tomatoes too I bet.
Quoting 76. pablosyn:



Yes. With El Nio rapidly intensefying and becoming a Super El Nio...these floods and storms will get worse here.


7C anomalies are now growing as a new Kelvin Wave is reinforcing the existing warm pool near South America. We could even see this go up to 8C and possibly even 9C over the next 8 weeks. The models on the July update really keyed in on this record WWB in early July hence the record values being depicted across Nino 3.4.
7C anomalies are now growing as a new Kelvin Wave is reinforcing the existing warm pool near South America

you meant to state "shrinking"....well....at least by the equatorial anomaly graph......shown below



Quoting ricderr.

Yeah about that shrinking. LOL. If you didn't think you were going to get busted on that then you got another thing coming. Pretty remarkable change in 19 days wouldn't you say. The man who just won't throw in the towel and save embarrassment.

July 1st


July 20th

Yeah about that shrinking. LOL. If you didn't think you were going to get busted on that then you got another thing coming. Pretty remarkable change in 19 days wouldn't you say.


so you're stating the equatorial anomaly graph is incorrect?
"Hurricane mode"

...Ok,
Quoting 87. Patrap:

"Hurricane mode"

...Ok,


Do you have your shutters up yet?

Quoting 84. ricderr:

7C anomalies are now growing as a new Kelvin Wave is reinforcing the existing warm pool near South America

you meant to state "shrinking"....well....at least by the equatorial anomaly graph......shown below




Funny because is actually growing again.
Quoting 86. ricderr:

Yeah about that shrinking. LOL. If you didn't think you were going to get busted on that then you got another thing coming. Pretty remarkable change in 19 days wouldn't you say.


so you're stating the equatorial anomaly graph is incorrect?



From July 1st to now we have seen drastic increases. Remember the TAO updates daily the chart you shown doesn't as it is over a week old.
Thank you Dr Masters



It is July 20th not Dec 20th but the temp is 74.........2 days of rain and now real nice weather, sunny and 74 at 1pm my time.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 20 Jul 12:55 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 20 Jul 12:40 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
20 Jul 12:40 pm PDT 74 62 66 NW 7G14 OK
Quoting 88. Drakoen:



Do you have your shutters up yet?




Shutter-caster'
Quoting 89. Gearsts:

Funny because is actually growing again.


He had to reach somewhere so why not post a run that hasn't updated in 8 days. LOL It's kinda funny now its like watching a mouse in a corner with no where else to go as the walls get closer and closer.
Under both a heat advisory and an air quality alert. Getting in the car felt like walking into a furnace.
96. bwi
Watching the "north pole" webcam (it's actually at 87n currently) here's what a week's worth of top melt looks like:

Quoting 94. StormTrackerScott:



He had to reach somewhere so why not post a run that hasn't updated in 8 days. LOL
he likes to nitpick
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 20 2015


Excerpt:

ONE AREA THAT BEARS WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
IS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA, NEAR THE TAIL END OF A FRONT. FOR
THE TIME BEING, NO HAZARDS (OTHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA) HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
O lordy,...


These memes are as old as the internet, or maybe even print encyclopedias or Human memory itself.
101. bwi
Dear SSP, thanks for your concern. Your arguments are silly and inaccurate: "penniless government," "collapsing economy" etc. Appreciate the suggestion to put them on "mute" though. Welcome to the blog, by the way. Cheers!
Still early in the Hurricane Season, the Atlantic is running it's pace, 3 storms in July is not so bad. With potential development of storms off the SE next week, and waves coming Africa heading into August, Atlantic will pick up in it's pace.
We don't need no steeenk'n shutters!!!
interestingly this tropical wave per NHC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N50W TO 16N48W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN 45W-
53W ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
23N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WEST OF THE
WAVE IN MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 08-12N BETWEEN 51W-
57W. will this be in the vicinity of this stalled out front just north of the bahamas next week?
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:



I haven't really looked at the Tampa region, but I know that when I lived in Corpus Christi the Bay and the Flow off the GOM made a big difference in precipitation. The north side of the bay would get daily thunderstorms, while the areas just south of the bay wouldn't get a drop.
We also have weird dry spots down here in Fort Myers . The last couple years, my location just S.E. of the city has been much drier than our official reporting station in the city.


The widest stretch of the Caloosahatchee River -- just below the Midpoint Bridge -- gives southeast Cape Coral a definite "hole in the sky" that you can see with your own eyes all summer long, especially during days of a southeast wind flow (Bermuda High). Ironically, the far southeast tip of Cape Coral regularly benefits from the narrowed land-gap of Shell Point, and showers forming over Fort Myers Beach and extreme south Fort Myers will hit lucky gardeners down that way.
Quoting 100. Patrap:

O lordy,...





* He herped a flerp of derp
Bret and Cindy formed from the same front.I see the pictures won't post...But yes Bret and Cindy formed from the same frontal system back in July 2011.

Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:

Hurricane mode is up with finally a real threat to FL potentially. Doesn't matter though if this system forms or not as there is going to be a tremendous amount of rain across FL if this Euro verifies. Been very consistent for several runs now.
appreciate your focus and passion on the blog but... "a real threat to FL potentially and "there is going to be a tremendous amount of rain across FL if this Euro verifies ".. your information is great but you don't need to be quite as alarmist.. imho
In terms of potential tropical development from the frontal-stall, the waters are warm enough but we will have to see how shear looks in these areas around Friday.  Too soon to know what could happen until we get a viable remnant in the Gulf or off the SE Seaboard later in this current period and shear levels drop a bit.


Trofiness is next to cyclogenesis...?

Or a spoonful of cyclonic turning makes the INVEST go round'.....




We would like to thank the dashed trof line for connecting N Fla and the Chandelier Islands off the La/Miss Coastal areas.





From the Miami NWS Discussion...

THE BIGGER CHANGE COMES AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN DOWN INTO FLORIDA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVING OUT IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. IN RETURN...A COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERAL LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGHINESS THEN REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
Quoting 112. JNFlori30A:

appreciate your focus and passion on the blog but... "a real threat to FL potentially and "there is going to be a tremendous amount of rain across FL if this Euro verifies ".. your information is great but you don't need to be quite as alarmist.. imho


I was just thinking the same with the "Warmest June on Record" headline. It's technically true, but "Warmest June Since 1880" or "Warmest June in 135 Years" would be a little less alarmist.
Quoting 81. Climate175:

The deers are causing disaster with some of those tomatoes too I bet.


I finally have an eight foot fence around my rental area. This has stopped them.
Quoting 111. washingtonian115:

Bret and Cindy formed from the same front

Bret,Cindy




Bret was an impressive tropical storm, forming an eye-like feauture despite being a relatively small system.
Wll gladly trade eggplants for rain here in NE Fla.
Quoting 111. washingtonian115:

Bret and Cindy formed from the same front.I see the pictures won't post...But yes Bret and Cindy formed from the same frontal system back in July 2011.




The front has been stationary for 4 years? Just poking some fun Washi - I know what you mean.
Quoting 77. ILwthrfan:

After a "near" record breaking June of monthly rainfall, I am being whiplashed right back into almost drought locally.  I've got some pretty big cracks in the ground and the ground is very hard. 
I dumped a little over 10" from May 28th to June1st, but the first 20 days of June for me now I have seen .6" of rain.  Most of that very early in the month.

Though it's only locally, everywhere else in the state of Illinois way above par once again. It's weird how every storm just dissipates before it gets here, and only here.






I'm drying out fast here in the Mid Atlantic too. Still optimal soil moisture but I'm starting to wish for rain. And it's not looking good for the next week. Northwest flow is usually drier than seasonal means here in summer.

I lost 30% of my potatoes to the combination of high soil temperatures and low oxygen from steady drenchings in June. This even though they were above the water table on raised beds. Potatoes in this area are VERY vulnerable to wet soils in summer.
Somewhere deep in the East African Rain forest, near a waterfall..the remnants of Karen are winding down, disturbing a updraft that will genesis into the 97L system downstream that will become a CV Spinner.

Doom' is mere chance you say?


Or do the fates decide over a game a Risk?


I wunder.....?




Quoting 97. slipstreampilot:

[snip]
Oh, my. There I was, plodding merrily along while tallying up the large number of debunked and discredited denialist tropes in this one when I tripped over a big, steaming pile of logical fallacies, then fell headlong into a filthy puddle of concern trolling.

I barely survived the encounter. ;-)

In truth, aside from a handful of definite and indefinite articles, along with the odd bit of punctuation, there's not much in the comment worthy of a response. Care to try again?
Barry Bonds' steroid use was for a statistically insignificant amount of time, therefore we can't determine if it had any effect on him becoming the most feared hitter of all time.
Quoting 122. Kenfa03:


Bet this doesn't last long.


It shouldn't. It was a steaming load of nonsense.
Quoting 117. N6546R:



I was just thinking the same with the "Warmest June on Record" headline. It's technically true, but "Warmest June Since 1880" or "Warmest June in 135 Years" would be a little less alarmist.

What part of "on record" do you not understand?
Maybe during a "Super el Nino" the Atlantic actually goes Hyper Active?

nobody knows, just saying'

No "I Don't Have My Shutters Up Yet"
Waxing a tad nostalgic and history for a post.

A picture of Buzz Aldrin, from Neil's camera inside the LEM soon after the EVA at Tranquility Base.

A not too often seen image that always brings the moment back for me.

Note the Horizon behind Buzz in the window too.

"Tranquility base here, the Eagle has landed"




After several days of struggling and barely holding on as a TD, Halola has made big improvements in the past 24 hours, now a moderate-strong tropical storm, and it should regain typhoon status soon. It's heading for Japan and may intensify further, but should weaken significantly on approach due to increasing shear and the huge cold wake left by Nangka.

Quoting 130. ACSeattle:


What part of "on record" do you not understand?


If we really wanted to get technical, it was more likely than not the warmest June in at least 22,000 years.

Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit (1686-1736)
The German physicist who invented the alcohol thermometer in 1709 and the mercury thermometer in 1714. In 1724 he introduced the temperature scale that bears his name.
Quoting 131. ProgressivePulse:

Maybe during a "Super el Nino" the Atlantic actually goes Hyper Active?

nobody knows, just saying'

No "I Don't Have My Shutters Up Yet"
Seasons that end with a "5" have a way of leaving a bad wake in the Atlantic rather that be because of a hyper active season (2005) or because of nasty storms (1915).
Euro hinting at a low pressure in the Eastern Gulf fairly consistently, so it is worth watching

West Central Florida could be even wetter the next 10 days than it has been
Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

Seasons that end with a "5" have a way of leaving a bad wake in the Atlantic rather that be because of a hyper active season (2005) or because of nasty storms (1915).
Arthur was a close call, if the path was a few miles to the west, we would have been dealing with a different scenario than partly cloudy skies.
Quoting 139. ricderr:





I couldn't agree more.
12z Euro Ensembles shows one lonely member for the Eastern Gulf potential..maybe that will change in future runs..
142. JRRP

south CV looks toasty
Quoting 142. JRRP:


Very clear -AMO.
Heads Up -

Humanity from Space premieres Tuesday, July 21, 2015.



Preview | Humanity From Space
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
526 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
WESTERN EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT/500 PM CDT/

* AT 526 PM EDT /426 PM CDT/...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA...OR 11
MILES EAST OF HEADLAND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAKELY...COLUMBIA...HALEBURG...GRANDBERRY CROSSROADS...CEDAR
SPRINGS...PLEASANT PLAINS...TUMBLETON...EARLY CO A/P...BARNES...
SIGMA...SAWHATCHEE...ROCK HILL...BALKUM...FARLEY NUCLEAR PLANT...
HILTON AND MILLER.
Quoting 97. slipstreampilot:
[snip]


Quoting 122. Kenfa03:


Bet this doesn't last long.
Do you think it should?

Does ssp make any points you find appealing?
138. Climate175
Actually D.C clocked in a 50mph gust on the 4th and that was with Sun and clear skies! 60 miles closer and Arthur would have seriously been a bad storm for the north east.
Quoting 114. Patrap:

Trofiness is next to cyclogenesis...?

Or a spoonful of cyclonic turning makes the INVEST go round'.....




We would like to thank the dashed trof line for connecting N Fla and the Chandelier Islands off the La/Miss Coastal areas.








Yep Pat, that ridge overhead finally let us have some rain in Fourchon today and the Heat Index is not bad at all.
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

138. Climate175
Actually D.C clocked in a 50mph gust on the 4th and that was with Sun and clear skies! 60 miles closer and Arthur would have seriously been a bad storm for the north east.
I remember those winds, any closer and we would be head on with heavy wind driven rain too.
Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

Seasons that end with a "5" have a way of leaving a bad wake in the Atlantic rather that be because of a hyper active season (2005) or because of nasty storms (1915).
1995
From Pcroton.
Quoting 137. Hurricanes101:

Euro hinting at a low pressure in the Eastern Gulf fairly consistently, so it is worth watching

West Central Florida could be even wetter the next 10 days than it has been
the rain here on the gulf coast has been amazing, especially last Friday,mushrooms are popping up in my lawn...haven't seen THAT here in a very long time..
Quoting 152. gulfbreeze:

1995
With the exception of 1925 every other year in the data base has recorded at least one bad incident occuring in those "5" years.We'll wait and see what the season brings and if the superstitions hold true.lol (For our sake lets hope not).

Climate can you post the rest of the run? T.I.A
Quoting 141. ncstorm:

12z Euro Ensembles shows one lonely member for the Eastern Gulf potential..maybe that will change in future runs..


link to the Euro ensembles please
The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future

The research is slated to appear online this week in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, an open-access journal published by the European Geosciences Union in which much of the peer review process, in effect, happens in public — a paper is uploaded, and then other scientists submit comments on it, and then the authors respond. (Because the work is in effect undergoing a public peer review, we solicited comments on the paper from a number of top scientists — their reactions are quoted more extensively below.)


Link

I post this not for what Dr Hansen's saying , but for how it's being said. How many times have we read reports about papers, and could not read them , because we couldn't afford to buy a subscription ? This is really an interesting development in science.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

With the exception of 1925 every other year in the data base has recorded at least one bad incident occuring in those "5" years.We'll wait and see what the season brings and if the superstitions hold true.lol (For our sake lets hope not).

Climate can you post the rest of the run? T.I.A
It's loading, but here is the next few images.
In the new study, Hansen and his colleagues suggest that the “doubling time” for ice loss from West Antarctica — the time period over which the amount of loss could double — could be as short as 10 years. In other words, a non-linear process could be at work, triggering major sea level rise in a time frame of 50 to 200 years. By contrast, Hansen and colleagues note, the IPCC assumed more of a linear process, suggesting only around 1 meter of sea level rise, at most, by 2100.

Link
It seems to me the models are showing 3 potential storms, one this Friday, then one near the Bahamas and one in the Gulf early next week.

Latest Run for GFS.
Quoting 157. Hurricanes101:



link to the Euro ensembles please


I cant...."Weatherbell"..
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

138. Climate175
Actually D.C clocked in a 50mph gust on the 4th and that was with Sun and clear skies! 60 miles closer and Arthur would have seriously been a bad storm for the north east.



Luckily arthur didn't take a similar path to irene since arthur was a stronger storm in the OBX. However, captain trough saved the day. ;)
In the new study, Hansen and his colleagues suggest that the “doubling time” for ice loss from West Antarctica — the time period over which the amount of loss could double — could be as short as 10 years. In other words, a non-linear process could be at work, triggering major sea level rise in a time frame of 50 to 200 years. By contrast, Hansen and colleagues note, the IPCC assumed more of a linear process, suggesting only around 1 meter of sea level rise, at most, by 2100.

Link
Quoting 164. TimTheWxMan:




Luckily arthur didn't take a similar path to irene since arthur was a stronger storm in the OBX. However, captain trough saved the day. ;)
167. ariot
I noticed the long conversation about significance of the time period in the blog post.

Four and a half billion years is not appropriate context, unless you are in to deep time or geology.
Context is the modern human experience we have come to expect or take for granted in the developed world.
There is a significant risk that we, or more likely our children or theirs will not enjoy that experience due to AGW.



Quoting 142. JRRP:


south CV looks toasty
Wow that is one heck of a contrast in anomalies over the Azores.


Quoting 84. ricderr:

7C anomalies are now growing as a new Kelvin Wave is reinforcing the existing warm pool near South America

you meant to state "shrinking"....well....at least by the equatorial anomaly graph......shown below




Yes, but yet another one is building steadily at 180E
Quoting 161. Climate175:

It seems to me the models are showing 3 potential storms, one this Friday, then one near the Bahamas and one in the Gulf early next week.


Probably a broad low that develops with competing centers. I can't recall the name but there was one that jumped the state all of a sudden several years back
Quoting 170. ProgressivePulse:



Probably a broad low that develops with competing centers. I can't recall the name but there was one that jumped the state all of a sudden several years back


TD 5 in 2010 I believe

Everyone was mesmerized by the low near the Cape and then boom, the dominant low ended up developing near Key West. It was hilarious because even though the low in the Gulf was clearly becoming the dominant one, people will still chasing the one off the east coast lol
172. oaww
This all fine BUT:

One one most extreme areas on the globe is not represented,
just because it is so extreme that no one lives there.

I am thinking of the Danikile Depression in Ethiopia.
Near the source of the Lucy fossile.

The Danikile is below sea level, Black lava rock,
north and west of the French port now known
as the Territory of the Issas and the Affers.
about 6 degrees north of the Equator.
Extreme portable readings on record.

A permanent station, well placed, would
soon take out Death Valley as a source of
high temperature records.
Quoting 164. TimTheWxMan:




Luckily arthur didn't take a similar path to irene since arthur was a stronger storm in the OBX. However, captain trough saved the day. ;)
Captain Trough Save the U.S was in full force during 2014...now I'm not so sure that'll be the case this year.Arthur was "over and out" (Over the OBX and then turning out to sea) while Irene was taking I-95 straight up to Vermont.
Quoting 173. washingtonian115:

Captain Trough Save the U.S was in full force during 2014...now I'm not so sure that'll be the case this year.Arthur was "over and out" (Over the OBX and then turning out to sea) while Irene was taking I-95 straight up to Vermont.
I remember when they said Issac was suppose to do the same in 2012.
This August will mark the 4th anniversary of the VA earthquake that was felt up and down the East Coast and even in some parts of the Midwest. I remember exactly at 1:51 pm, the house started shaking slowly and then a few seconds later, BOOM BOOM BOOM with vigorous shaking.
176. JRRP
the shear will drop acording to GFS
now

240h

August 1
Quoting 148. AdamReith:


I just like to see both sides. Still undecided on all of it.
Quoting 161. Climate175:

It seems to me the models are showing 3 potential storms, one this Friday, then one near the Bahamas and one in the Gulf early next week.


Wow! What does the next frame show?
Quoting 178. GeoffreyWPB:



Wow! What does the next frame show?
Quoting 178. GeoffreyWPB:



Wow! What does the next frame show?
Andrew part two.
Quoting 180. washingtonian115:

Andrew part two.


Not even in jest.
Quoting 181. rmbjoe1954:



Not even in jest.
Well, I found it a bit amusing as we were saying a 1013 mb low quickly turns into almost 950mb storm in one frame.
Hansen before congress in 1988 , the claims of the deniers now have left all reality. So here's what the New York Times said -

Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate
By PHILIP SHABECOFF, Special to the New York Times
Published: June 24, 1988

Link

They are making claims off the charts , stuffing in someone's mouth with numbers.
"Looks" toasty? This isn't an SST map. Perhaps it is toasty, but let's see the SSTs.
Quoting 142. JRRP:


south CV looks toasty
Quoting 177. Kenfa03:


I just like to see both sides. Still undecided on all of it.

Perhaps it would be better if I asked you, "What are the two sides, as you perceive them?"
Quoting 187. GeoffreyWPB:

gfs 2015072018 Forecast 850vort Java Animation


If I am looking at this correctly, the GFS shows the best vorticity is over Florida

Quoting 185. BayFog:

"Looks" toasty? This isn't an SST map. Perhaps it is toasty, but let's see the SSTs.

Looks to be a very wet period for florida next couple weeks. Seems that low just hangs, dissipates and redevelops in the eastern gulf multiple times. Tells me troughiness setting up shop.
Quoting 186. AdamReith:


Perhaps it would be better if I asked you, "What are the two sides, as you perceive them?"

AGW or not. Am I wrong?
At 2:50 PM this afternoon, the southernmost buoy off the Central California coast, north of Point Conception near Santa Maria, popped the 70 degree mark (70.2 F). I don't know for certain, but this might be a record high SST for that spot.
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


AGW or not. Am I wrong?
Well, could you perhaps explain that a bit? Are you in some doubt that recently the planet has begun warming rapidly, or that human activities are the cause, or both?
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


AGW or not. Am I wrong?
No one who is honest and sane denies that man is causing global warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise.  Just sayin'....
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


AGW or not. Am I wrong?


Start by going to the more section at WU, click on climate change. Great, simple read, and very well done and informative. Maybe allow it to sink in that 97% of climate scientists are strongly on the scientific fact side of AGW that global warming is happening and is man driven. Maybe then read some of the thousands of peer reviewed papers by said scientists to get a deeper dive into what you'll read on climate chance through WU. I hope you will do sincerely. Good luck.
Quoting 553. rayduray2013:

Hi Brian,

I think you might have a basic misunderstanding of the capacity of the southern California reservoirs. See this page for some comparables.

Let's do the math, shall we?

Every reservoir which potentially could gain some fill from the recent rains across the Southland include Castaic Lake (325 KAF or thousands of acre feet), Lake Perris (about 100 KAF), Pine Flat (1000 KAF) and Millerton (520 KAF). Keep in mind most of these reservoirs are transfer locations for Northern California water on the way to delivery to MWD, LADWP and San Diego Water. The total KAF in these reservoirs is only partially recharged by local rains and their total capacity amounts to less than 2 MAF (millions of acre feet).

In comparison. Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, the two reservoirs experts keep their eyes on have a capacity to hold 8 MAF. Four times as much water.

The recent rains had zero impact on Shasta and Oroville.

Don't trouble yourself about the Southland reservoirs. They are not what you need to focus on, which is the volume of water in Shasta, Oroville, Lake Mead and Lake Powell.

Here' s a handy tool on the Colorado River reservoirs.



Excellent comment. I knew that most water for Los Angeles comes from northern California, but I didn't know that the local reservoirs are as insignificant as they are.
Quoting 177. Kenfa03:


I just like to see both sides. Still undecided on all of it.

There's a site called Watt's Up With That if you are interested in the Dark Side. As has been pointed out numerous times, this site tries to stick with the Force of science
Quoting 196. rayduray2013:


No one who is honest and sane denies that man is causing global warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise. You really ought to up your game from the six year old 's level of childish denial of reality.

Maybe I've missed it. Has Kenfa03 done any climate science denying here? At most, he seems to be granting some credibility where it is not deserved--at least as far as I've seen.
Mmmmm. Toast.
Quoting 196. rayduray2013:


No one who is honest and sane denies that man is causing global warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise. You really ought to up your game from the six year old 's level of childish denial of reality.



My Father honestly denies AGW strongly. Millions honestly do. They have been hoodwinked by the Right, who they follow unquestionably. He, like so many others refuse to look because they are convinced to the absolute that it's a Left conspiracy theory to only get more and more regulations on business. It is insane but it is the prevailing thinking in many Right circles. He refuses to seek and those who refuse to seek never find truth. They are sheep who will gladly be led off the cliff because they believe the shepherds would NEVER lie to them. I've tried to bring him around, but his "weather goes in cycles", is all he can recite, and he'll hear no more.
Quoting 117. N6546R:



I was just thinking the same with the "Warmest June on Record" headline. It's technically true, but "Warmest June Since 1880" or "Warmest June in 135 Years" would be a little less alarmist.


What's "alarmist" about it? It's stating a fact.

Actually, it's not entirely correct. Current global average temperatures are higher than the Holocene optimum, and within the error bounds of temperatures not seen since the Miocene. So from a more paleoclimatoligical standpoint, it's could potentially be the warmest June in about 20 million years.

But we have only had an "instrumental" record since 1880's, and that is what is being referred to here.

That's like complaining that the a blog titled "Strongest Atlantic Storm On Record" is being alarmist.
Quoting 196. rayduray2013:


No one who is honest and sane denies that man is causing global warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise. You really ought to up your game from the six year old 's level of childish denial of reality.



I 100% agree in GW and that we are the primary cause if it. However, there is a huge population that do not understand science or have trust is people who spread misinformation. IMO, it doesn't help the cause by calling them childish 6-year olds. They will only deny even more.
Have a good evening all

18z
Quoting 204. help4u:

Noble winning scientist said global warming is a hoax.Remember the arctic was suppose to be melted by 2015!Make something else up for next ten years .Nothing they have ever said would happen has come true.The ozone hole was the best one from 8 years ago. Lol.Try to enjoy the rest of the day.


What reliable source claimed that the Arctic would be melted by 2015?
Quoting 203. DeepSeaRising:



My Father honestly denies AGW strongly. Millions honestly do. They have been hoodwinked by the Right, who they follow unquestionably. He, like so many others refuse to look because they are convinced to the absolute that it's a Left conspiracy theory to only get more and more regulations on business. It is insane but it is the prevailing thinking in many Right circles. He refuses to seek and those who refuse to seek never find truth. They are sheep who will gladly be led off the cliff because they believe the shepherds would NEVER lie to them. I've tried to bring him around, but his "weather goes in cycles", is all he can recite, and he'll hear no more.

Unfortunately, that attitude is quite widespread
Quoting 206. help4u:

The sheep are the liberals who tell lies to control our lives and deny the truth!You can keep adjusting the temps all you want!Nothing nothing you warn us about ever happens!


Umm, you maybe outta check out fig. 1 of Dr. Master's post
Quoting 210. ncstorm:

Have a good evening all

18z



Hooray! Texas is safe!
Quoting 210. ncstorm:

Have a good evening all

18z

Getting more bullish on the MDR. SE US is where action may be upcoming.
Quoting 207. Bucsboltsfan:



I 100% agree in GW and that we are the primary cause if it. However, there is a huge population that do not understand science or have trust is people who spread misinformation. IMO, it doesn't help the cause by calling them childish 6-year olds. They will only deny even more.


But, it's all in the name of science! That's a good enough excuse to bully and belittle people behind your computer.
Quoting 215. BaltimoreBrian:

Post it on sensitivethug's blog and ask for the sender to be banned.


She can block the mailer herself. Cannot be banned from the blog.
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


AGW or not. Am I wrong?


It's more about the significance of man's role in climate. One end of the spectrum thinks man is undoubtedly the primary influence and consequences will arise if measures aren't taken to mitigate it as soon as possible, with much of this basis placed the fact that CO2, like many tri-atomic nuclei, intercepts infrared radiation at specific frequencies, which excites the molecule & thus transfers some of the energy to other surrounding parcels (via conduction & collisional line broadening) & the reductionist climate models that attempt to accurately simulate & hindcast the plethora of associated & quasi-independent processes that surround the overall climate. The opposing end of the spectrum questions the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2, often giving more credence to natural & external forcings (solar activity, cosmic ray flux, ENSO, PDO, etc.). You'll also find upon objectively taking a step back, it's fairly common for those on either end of the spectrum to exploit extreme opposing viewpoints to uphold their views on AGW. Ultimately, my advice is to stick strictly to published literature, physics, observations, & those who promulgate them...
Quoting 204. help4u:

Noble winning scientist said global warming is a hoax.
One, out of how many? And what was his field of expertise?

Remember the arctic was suppose to be melted by 2015!
Where was research saying that published?

Make something else up for next ten years .Nothing they have ever said would happen has come true.
List and sources, or you're making it up.


Quoting 208. washingtonian115:

I've been disrespected before on this site.But what I just got in Wu mail was degrading and out right disrespectful and calling a women that is like spitting in someones face.If you're getting that butt hurt you have issues.I'm done for the night.
You should see some of my emails.
Quoting 203. DeepSeaRising:



My Father honestly denies AGW strongly. Millions honestly do. They have been hoodwinked by the Right, who they follow unquestionably. He, like so many others refuse to look because they are convinced to the absolute that it's a Left conspiracy theory to only get more and more regulations on business. It is insane but it is the prevailing thinking in many Right circles. He refuses to seek and those who refuse to seek never find truth. They are sheep who will gladly be led off the cliff because they believe the shepherds would NEVER lie to them. I've tried to bring him around, but his "weather goes in cycles", is all he can recite, and he'll hear no more.


A cold hard fact is some are so brainwashed they will never look at the facts. My mother has banned him from Fox, because it changed who he was as a man. It's a start.
LOL
Quoting 179. Climate175:


Quoting 221. PensacolaDoug:

You should see some of my emails.


PensacolaDoug I'm sorry to hear that, you are one of the few here who have put a good faith attempt to argue the other side of the coin.
Quoting 218. GeoffreyWPB:
She can block the mailer herself. Cannot be banned from the blog.
I'd think a really nasty wundermail would be justification for a ban.
Quoting 217. tampabaymatt:



But, it's all in the name of science! That's a good enough excuse to bully and belittle people behind your computer.
You mean like this?

The sheep are the liberals who tell lies to control our lives and deny the truth!You can keep adjusting the temps all you want!Nothing nothing you warn us about ever happens!
What any single Human "believe's" as to AGW and our shared Global emergency, matters not as we know the causation and Science behind the observed warming.

What is critical is that we must decrease then eliminate Fossil Fuels from our global economies.


We are past 400ppm C02 and rising steadily.

To continue down this path is futile.

We must choose,....wisely.










Quoting 203. DeepSeaRising:



My Father honestly denies AGW strongly. Millions honestly do. They have been hoodwinked by the Right, who they follow unquestionably. He, like so many others refuse to look because they are convinced to the absolute that it's a Left conspiracy theory to only get more and more regulations on business. It is insane but it is the prevailing thinking in many Right circles. He refuses to seek and those who refuse to seek never find truth. They are sheep who will gladly be led off the cliff because they believe the shepherds would NEVER lie to them. I've tried to bring him around, but his "weather goes in cycles", is all he can recite, and he'll hear no more.


As I'm sure you have seen first hand, and as is being evidenced right now on the blog as I am typing these words, ideological bias in the form of social psychological defense mechanisms are common place in science denial. There are certain things that would shake up how people have constructed their individual identities to the core, and because of this, they use whatever mechanisms they can to ensure they never have to face a reality they are not prepared to deal with.

In my research, I found the major players are all there in how people justify rejection, political ideology, economic ideology in the form of free market, capitalistic ideals, education and work experiences, religion, the social construction of knowledge, conspiracy theory, and media choice. Individually, it is usually a mix of all to varying degrees that people need in order to fool themselves, because that's all this really is. It's a defense mechanism to not deal with reality because the reality would cause a drastic change to who they think themselves to be.

Quoting 219. Webberweather53:



It's more about the significance of man's role in climate. One end of the spectrum thinks man is undoubtedly the primary influence and consequences will arise if measures aren't taken to mitigate it as soon as possible, with much of this basis placed the fact that CO2, like many tri-atomic nuclei, intercepts infrared radiation at specific frequencies, which excites the molecule & thus transfers some of the energy to other surrounding parcels (via conduction & collisional line broadening) & the reductionist climate models that attempt to accurately simulate & hindcast the plethora of associated & quasi-independent processes that surround the overall climate. The opposing end of the spectrum questions the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2, often giving more credence to natural & external forcings (solar activity, cosmic ray flux, ENSO, PDO, etc.). You'll also find upon objectively taking a step back, it's fairly common for those on either end of the spectrum to exploit extreme opposing viewpoints to uphold their views on AGW. Ultimately, my advice is to stick strictly to published literature, physics, observations, & those who promulgate them...

Thats is a great explanation. Thanks. Both ends of the spectrum have compelling points. How do choose which to believe?
Quoting 226. AdamReith:

You mean like this?

The sheep are the liberals who tell lies to control our lives and deny the truth!You can keep adjusting the temps all you want!Nothing nothing you warn us about ever happens!



Never a peep on those, indeed.

Quoting 215. BaltimoreBrian:

Post it on sensitivethug's blog and ask for the sender to be banned.


It would be better to send sensitivethug a e-mail then bring a personal dispute up on her blog !!
Quoting 226. AdamReith:

You mean like this?

The sheep are the liberals who tell lies to control our lives and deny the truth!You can keep adjusting the temps all you want!Nothing nothing you warn us about ever happens!



No, I don't. I made no reference to that comment. Anything else?
Quoting 220. AdamReith:

One, out of how many? And what was his field of expertise?

Remember the arctic was suppose to be melted by 2015!
Where was research saying that published?

Make something else up for next ten years .Nothing they have ever said would happen has come true.
List and sources, or you're making it up.



The 2015" ice-free arctic" was predicted and the media picked it up and spread it like it was a "fact". Just because it didn't appear in a "peer-reviewed journal" doesn't mean it wasn't in the news. I remember it just fine. Some of us remember these predictions and it makes us question the credibility and honesty of those of you who say it never happened.

Quoting 203. DeepSeaRising:



My Father honestly denies AGW strongly. Millions honestly do. ...He refuses to seek and those who refuse to seek never find truth.
Thanks for sharing the personal perspective. As someone with siblings whose views are shaped in part by the Fox News propaganda team, I can relate. :)

I savor the irony that our EPA, Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act and more all came about during a Republican administration.  Sadly, such advances couldn't happen today. 
Quoting 204. help4u:

Noble winning scientist said global warming is a hoax.Remember the arctic was suppose to be melted by 2015!Make something else up for next ten years .Nothing they have ever said would happen has come true.The ozone hole was the best one from 8 years ago. Lol.Try to enjoy the rest of the day.



Are you aware that arctic sea ice has declined over the last 35 years? Wasn't a decline in arctic sea ice predicted? Are you aware that the fire season in California and some other places has lengthened? Wasn't that predicted? Are you aware that Earth has warmed over the past 30 years. Wasn't that predicted?
Quoting 229. Kenfa03:


Thats is a great explanation. Thanks. Both ends of the spectrum have compelling points. How do choose which to believe?


Only one end has legitimate scientific support. That's quite clear.
Quoting 224. DeepSeaRising:



PensacolaDoug I'm sorry to hear that, you are one of the few here who have put a good faith attempt to argue the other side of the coin.


Thanks. I 'preciate that!
Where is the "other" evidence that shows the causation and explains the observed changes in the Earth Biosphere?

We have time.

Put up, or, well you know.

Go ahead, "Trump" that Science.

Quoting 233. PensacolaDoug:

The 2015" ice-free arctic" was predicted and the media picked it up and spread it like it was a "fact". Just because it didn't appear in a "peer-reviewed journal" doesn't mean it wasn't in the news. I remember it just fine. Some of us remember these predictions and it makes us question the credibility and honesty of those of you who say it never happened.


The media aren't scientists. Look at this crazy "ice age" stuff floating around. And why make the absurd reactionary step of disagreeing with the media's representation of something and using that to disagree with the science? What kind of position is that? It doesn't even make sense.
Quoting 192. Kenfa03:


AGW or not. Am I wrong?


Yes you are, and the fact that you have asked this question shows that you don't really follow the research on the topic.

The only place where "AGW or not" is happening is the public arena, brought to you by the very same organizations and players that tried to convince everyone that leaded gasoline is not toxic, smoking doesn't cause lung cancer, asbestos doesn't cause lung cancer, acid rain doesn't harm crops, CFC's don't destroy the ozone layer, etc.

In the scientific arena, the "AGW or not" argument basically ended at the end of the 1800's when Svante Arrhenius determined and analyzed the properties of the gases making up the atmosphere and created the first climate model quantifying the greenhouse effect. He identified CO2 as the determining factor due to it's effective atmospheric lifetime (most other gases break down within a decade or so).

There are literally thousands of papers going all the way back to the 1820's on the subject of greenhouse gases and how they affect planetary temperature, along with petabytes of data and observations. It's very well supported and, more importantly, it doesn't violate any known laws of physics and/or chemistry.

Deniers, on the other hand, have no such evidence to support their claims. In fact, deniers have little to no grasp of physics, math, or chemistry. Their counter-argument to the Stefan–Boltzmann law is a graph they made in Excel. Their counter argument to CO2 having absorption bands in SW and LW IR is that it isn't glass so can't trap heat. Instead of providing even a basic physical model for their hypothesis, they create outlandish global conspiracies involving Al Gore, Hitler, and time machines. Or something. Some of the nutters on WUWT come up with some pretty entertaining stuff.

Meanwhile, a high school physics student can derive a simple energy balance model in a couple pages of math that gets within spitting distance of actual global temperatures based on current GHG levels.

So yeah, it's an almost wholly fabricated debate in the public to ensure that those they make money continue to do so at the expense of everyone else and future generations. Capitalism at it's finest. But as far the scientific side, that debate as settled a long time ago.



Is sitting back with popcorn
For the Science minded among us.

Climate Change



Climate change is happening now. The United States and the world are warming, global sea level is rising, and some types of extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe. These changes have already resulted in a wide range of impacts across every region of the country and many sectors of the economy. Today, America needs reliable scientific information about current and future changes, impacts, and effective response options. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)—which released the 3rd National Climate Assessment in May 2014—is at the center of the Federal Government's efforts to fulfill this critical need. Scroll down to learn more.
Quoting 217. tampabaymatt:



But, it's all in the name of science! That's a good enough excuse to bully and belittle people behind your computer.

It is not unusual for comments sections on the Internet to degenerate into you know what contests. In fact, this is one of the most civil comments sections I follow. But the fact is, the issue of AGW has been out there for over 25 years now, and THE STAKES COULD NOT BE HIGHER! From the standpoint of the science, questioning AGW makes as much sense as questioning the value of polio vaccinations, and those who claim to question the validity of the science have the same moral status as someone who questions vaccinations
What I always find humor in is that the naysayers bounce in here, to the entry of one the best communicators of the Science of AWG on the internet, with ZERO evidence to counter, and declare some sort of mastery of magical BS.

Interesting, but lacking any science, really just plain old sad.

Neil Armstrong didn't get to the moon with the other 2 men 46 years ago tonight by bloviating.

Science and hard work got er done.



Quoting 239. Naga5000:



The media aren't scientists. Look at this crazy "ice age" stuff floating around. And why make the absurd reactionary step of disagreeing with the media's representation of something and using that to disagree with the science? What kind of position is that? It doesn't even make sense.
You miss my point. My point is this and then I'm out as I have not the patience for this any longer. These predictions are promulgated in the news and popular culture media via Awards shows like the grammy's and emmys and in sit-coms until the they become an accepted part of the low-info types beliefs. It doesn't matter that it did not happen. People figure it'll be just a little later. The media never comes back and points out the prediction was wrong.
Quoting 232. tampabaymatt:


No, I don't.
Didn't think so.



Anything else?
Nope. 'Bout what I figured.
Quoting 243. ACSeattle:


It is not unusual for comments sections on the Internet to degenerate into you know what contests. In fact, this is one of the most civil comments sections I follow. But the fact is, the issue of AGW has been out there for over 25 years now, and THE STAKES COULD NOT BE HIGHER! From the standpoint of the science, questioning AGW makes as much sense as questioning the value of polio vaccinations, and those who claim to question the validity of the science have the same moral status as someone who questions vaccinations


The person that ridiculous comment was directed at seems to want to learn more about the topic. I never saw them denying anything. Yet, they were insulted in the typical childish fashion that seems to now be the norm on this blog.
Quoting 241. Hurricanes101:

Is sitting back with popcorn


A cold Pepsi & salt & vinegar chips here.
Quoting 246. AdamReith:

Didn't think so.



Anything else?
Nope. 'Bout what I figured.



Me too. Maybe putting words in people's mouths isn't a good way to make a point.
O the sweet smell of Monday irony, it do reek.

So when will the nhc mention the east coast
A Tuesday
B Wednesday
C Thursday
D Friday or on.

Me A.
oooh, sorry, I never Poll on a Monday as a rule.

Quoting 243. ACSeattle:


It is not unusual for comments sections on the Internet to degenerate into you know what contests. In fact, this is one of the most civil comments sections I follow. But the fact is, the issue of AGW has been out there for over 25 years now, and THE STAKES COULD NOT BE HIGHER! From the standpoint of the science, questioning AGW makes as much sense as questioning the value of polio vaccinations, and those who claim to question the validity of the science have the same moral status as someone who questions vaccinations


We must judge behavior but the moral compass behind it is something we can't know. We must judge behavior but judging the moral makeup of that behavior is not ours to do.
The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future

By Chris Mooney July 20 at 10:37 AM

James Hansen has often been out ahead of his scientific colleagues.

With his 1988 congressional testimony, the then-NASA scientist is credited with putting the global warming issue on the map by saying that a warming trend had already begun. “It is time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here,” Hansen famously testified. Since then, he has drawn headlines for accusing the Bush administration of trying to muzzle him, getting arrested protesting the Keystone XL Pipeline, and setting forward the case for why carbon dioxide levels need to be kept below 350 parts per million in the atmosphere (they’re currently around 400).

Now Hansen — who retired in 2013 from his NASA post, and is currently an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute — is publishing what he says may be his most important paper. Along with 16 other researchers — including leading experts on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets — he has authored a lengthy study outlining an scenario of potentially rapid sea level rise combined with more intense storm systems.

It’s an alarming picture of where the planet could be headed — and hard to ignore, given its author. But it may also meet with considerable skepticism in the scientific community, given that its scenarios of sea level rise occur more rapidly than those ratified by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its latest assessment of the state of climate science, published in 2013.

“We conclude that 2°C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous,” note Hansen and his co-authors. 2 degrees Celsius is a widely accepted international target for how much the world should limit global warming.

The research is slated to appear this week in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access journal published by the European Geophysical Union in which much of the peer review process, in effect, happens in public — a paper is uploaded, and then other scientists submit comments on it, and then the authors respond.

The research takes, as one of its starting points, evidence regarding accelerating ice loss from some parts of the planet’s ice sheets, especially West Antarctica. One of Hansen’s co-authors on the new paper, Eric Rignot of NASA, was the lead author of a 2014 study suggesting that, as one NASA press release put it, the decline of West Antarctica could now be “irreversible.”


more:,...

Quoting 207. Bucsboltsfan:



I 100% agree in GW and that we are the primary cause if it. However, there is a huge population that do not understand science or have trust is people who spread misinformation. IMO, it doesn't help the cause by calling them childish 6-year olds. They will only deny even more.
Yeah, I agree. I had second thoughts so I modified my comment. That said, I'm reminded of a quip, misattributed to Winston Churchill" "the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

At a certain point in time we are simply going to have to stop mollycoddling morons in the U.S.A. lest we simply allow their propaganda masters to destroy the future of the nation.

I very much enjoyed listening to HBO's Real Time where Bill Maher took on one of these slick, sleazy AGW deniers and crushed his argument. Here's the money quote from Maher: 

"Geochemist James Lawrence Powell combed through every peer-reviewed
climate article in the last two years, and found that 10,855
peer-reviewed climate articles… only two rejected the notion of man-made
climate change. Two, out of 10,855. Doesn’t that persuade you, the idea
of scientific consensus? Don’t you think scientists know more about
science than we do?"


 At some point in time, disparaging the denialists, ridiculing them, is our best weapon against their childish arrogance.

At some point in time, we need some adult supervision in America.
Quoting 229. Kenfa03:


Thats is a great explanation. Thanks. Both ends of the spectrum have compelling points. How do choose which to believe?


You need to first conduct your own independent research on the issue, then educate yourself w/ available literature, listen to experts in the field & aforementioned individuals (even if their viewpoint may conflict with yours) who promote the literature, physics, the actual observations, & for obvious reasons, avoid those who consistently demean others. Finally, remain (relatively) open minded as any reputable, honest, & objective scientist would. (i.e. be more than willing to change your position as long as the data supports it). The latter of the antecedent statements is usually an endless struggle & the hardest for many to accept, & I can certainly attest to this. If you're truly interested in the issue of AGW, set goals for yourself on how to progressively advance your learning. For example, reading one published paper a day (or just reading for a set amount of time is a great idea). I've personally found success in optimizing my retention of information if I take some notes & important key points while or after I've finished reading & do so before going to sleep...
Quoting 253. DeepSeaRising:



We must judge behavior but the moral compass behind it is something we can't know. We must judge behavior but judging the moral makeup of that behavior is not ours to do.

Behavior is how morality manifests itself. Google "the banality of evil"

Quoting 222. DeepSeaRising:



A cold hard fact is some are so brainwashed they will never look at the facts. My mother has banned him from Fox, because it changed who he was as a man. It's a start.
Wow! What a great Mom. And what a reasonable idea. :)
Quoting 255. rayduray2013:


Yeah, I agree. I had second thoughts so I modified my comment. That said, I'm reminded of a quip, misattributed to Winston Churchill" "the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

At a certain point in time we are simply going to have to stop mollycoddling morons in the U.S.A. lest we simply allow their propaganda masters to destroy the future of the nation.

I very much enjoyed listening to HBO's Real Time where Bill Maher took on one of these slick, sleazy AGW deniers and crushed his argument. Here's the money quote from Maher: 

"Geochemist James Lawrence Powell combed through every peer-reviewed
climate article in the last two years, and found that 10,855
peer-reviewed climate articles… only two rejected the notion of man-made
climate change. Two, out of 10,855. Doesn’t that persuade you, the idea
of scientific consensus? Don’t you think scientists know more about
science than we do?"


 At some point in time, disparaging the denialists, ridiculing them, is our best weapon against their childish arrogance.

At some point in time, we need some adult supervision in America.



I would also bust out the list of world wide scientific organizations that accept global warming, and the corresponding climate change as being primarily caused by humans , all the major ones are there, but it does not include the "soft science"organizations like the American Sociological Association or the American Psychological Association that also accept the basic premise of AGW. While consensus does not mean correctness in all cases, scientific consensus is important as it both allows for a position in which research can build off of and a position by which to challenge it, so far all challenges have fallen short. Consensus gives prevailing scientific theory a privileged position and until something new comes along, it is as close to correct as we can have.
Quoting 255. rayduray2013:


Yeah, I agree. I had second thoughts so I modified my comment. That said, I'm reminded of a quip, misattributed to Winston Churchill" "the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

At a certain point in time we are simply going to have to stop mollycoddling morons in the U.S.A. lest we simply allow their propaganda masters to destroy the future of the nation.

I very much enjoyed listening to HBO's Real Time where Bill Maher took on one of these slick, sleazy AGW deniers and crushed his argument. Here's the money quote from Maher: 

"Geochemist James Lawrence Powell combed through every peer-reviewed
climate article in the last two years, and found that 10,855
peer-reviewed climate articles… only two rejected the notion of man-made
climate change. Two, out of 10,855. Doesn’t that persuade you, the idea
of scientific consensus? Don’t you think scientists know more about
science than we do?"


 At some point in time, disparaging the denialists, ridiculing them, is our best weapon against their childish arrogance.

At some point in time, we need some adult supervision in America.


yes, Yes, YES!
Quoting 253. DeepSeaRising:



We must judge behavior but the moral compass behind it is something we can't know. We must judge behavior but judging the moral makeup of that behavior is not ours to do.
Can't agree with that in all cases.

I might hesitate to judge the moral impetus behind a parent's decision not to vaccinate her healthy child, even though I think it's a wrong decision.

But the physician who faked a clinical study to show MMR vaccine causes autism, so that he could get rich selling his competing vaccine? I have no trouble at all condemning the morals of that filthy criminal. There's a pretty long list of professional climate science deniers whom I would put in his class, morally.
Quoting 256. Webberweather53:



You need to first conduct your own independent research on the issue, then educate yourself w/ available literature, listen to experts in the field & aforementioned individuals (even if their viewpoint may conflict with yours) who promote the literature, physics, the actual observations, & for obvious reasons, avoid those who consistently demean others. Finally, remain (relatively) open minded as any reputable, honest, & objective scientist would. (i.e. be more than willing to change your position as long as the data supports it). The latter of the antecedent statements is usually an endless struggle & the hardest for many to accept, & I can certainly attest to this. If you're truly interested in the issue of AGW, set goals for yourself on how to progressively advance your learning. For example, reading one published paper a day (or just reading for a set amount of time is a great idea). I've personally found success in optimizing my retention of information if I take some notes & important key points while or after I've finished reading & do so before going to sleep...


I would just add that if you have questions, Twitter and respectful emails usually will get you clarifications from the researchers. I have had great interactions when I have encountered something I didn't fully grasp.
Quoting 253. DeepSeaRising:



We must judge behavior but the moral compass behind it is something we can't know. We must judge behavior but judging the moral makeup of that behavior is not ours to do.


That's with the individual. The honest seeker with a differing opinion. At some point as with Hitler, Stalin, etc the moral makeup becomes very evident. Such is that with the major backers of the anti-science movement, those who's agenda is only more and more greed. Just saying we must not be quick to attack the moral integrity of those who honestly disagree. Strange how few of them actually come here. The propagandists are the norm by far, the honest seeking denier is a rare breed indeed here.
ESPI gain ground fast. Very high values now that haven't been seen since 1997.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.55
Quoting 257. hydrus:




Up over 10" here for July with 19.11" since June 1st then you go 20 miles SE to OIA and the official reporting station has seen roughly 10"
Quoting 255. rayduray2013:


Yeah, I agree. I had second thoughts so I modified my comment. That said, I'm reminded of a quip, misattributed to Winston Churchill" "the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

At a certain point in time we are simply going to have to stop mollycoddling morons in the U.S.A. lest we simply allow their propaganda masters to destroy the future of the nation.

I very much enjoyed listening to HBO's Real Time where Bill Maher took on one of these slick, sleazy AGW deniers and crushed his argument. Here's the money quote from Maher: 

"Geochemist James Lawrence Powell combed through every peer-reviewed
climate article in the last two years, and found that 10,855
peer-reviewed climate articles… only two rejected the notion of man-made
climate change. Two, out of 10,855. Doesn’t that persuade you, the idea
of scientific consensus? Don’t you think scientists know more about
science than we do?"


 At some point in time, disparaging the denialists, ridiculing them, is our best weapon against their childish arrogance.

At some point in time, we need some adult supervision in America.



I guess it tough dealing with obvious trolling versus those who don't understand. What I think lacks is those with a science mind have a hard time with those that don't. For example, I'm a weather geek. I have zero science background but I love science. That's how I came to understand GW. Unfortunately there are millions out there that hate science or trust others and get misinformed. It's an uphill battle.

Quoting 229. Kenfa03:


Thats is a great explanation. Thanks. Both ends of the spectrum have compelling points. How do choose which to believe?
First, you need a solid background in science if you are going to be able to make heads-or-tails of the arguments. Keep in mind that real climate scientists are in near 100% agreement that mankind is twisting the dials on the climate controls. And that our actions have consequences beyond the mere warming of our back yards. We're altering the chemistry of the oceans, we're melting ice sheets and glaciers at rates that can potentially mean we'll destroy every harbor at sea level on the planet within a couple centuries. We're on a predictable path the be forced to depopulate Bangladesh, New Orleans, Miami, much of the Netherlands and large swathes of productive agricultural lands across the planet.

Then you have the denialists who argue that it would be foolish to turn coal miners into wind energy technicians. Just as to why this is bad is never explained. But I guess the coal companies and the oil companies have reasons to make sure humanity doesn't come to its senses about where we're headed.
Quoting 628. Skyepony:

There is three northern Indiana reservoirs that are at record levels and not but a foot or two from their spillways. They protect the towns of Wabash, Peru and Logansport from extreme flooding.


I have family in that area in Walton, Indiana. My cousin got married Saturday in Adams, Indiana. It was awesome to attend.

The Wabash river was running at the tops of its banks, but the creeks in the area have already fallen back to normal levels.

I didn't know there were lakes in that area....it's pretty flat with some hills, but they're small hills.
Quoting 239. Naga5000:



The media aren't scientists. Look at this crazy "ice age" stuff floating around. And why make the absurd reactionary step of disagreeing with the media's representation of something and using that to disagree with the science? What kind of position is that? It doesn't even make sense.

I'm still struggling to understand why those against AGW have spent years discounting thousands upon thousands of scientists that have published countless peer-reviewed articles only to latch onto a sole physicist as evidence that climate change is a hoax.
Quoting 268. rayduray2013:


First, you need a solid background in science if you are going to be able to make heads-or-tails of the arguments.

There's your problem. The majority does not have a solid background in science. Here's a problem I see (and I experienced some of this myself). Let's say a person wants to do his/her own research. They type in "is global warming a reality" and finds all the compelling research. Now they type in "is global warming a hoax" and reads what is to them very compelling reasons why it is not real or not caused by humans. Without any science background, how are they to make a decision? I don't know the answer to that.
If she wants, she can explodes:

Halola:








Reminds me the Hurricane Ike when exploded to cat 4:





Quoting 267. Bucsboltsfan:



I guess it tough dealing with obvious trolling versus those who don't understand. What I think lacks is those with a science mind have a hard time with those that don't. For example, I'm a weather geek. I have zero science background but I love science. That's how I came to understand GW. Unfortunately there are millions out there that hate science or trust others and get misinformed. It's an uphill battle.
What we need as a nation is to make sure that the anti-intellectuals and the anti-science people aren't the ones in charge of public policy. Over the past 30 years I'd grade our nation with an "F" on this score, considering the rise of right-libertarianism with its penchant for a high-handed disregard for the common good. Dr. Jim White, UC-Boulder is a wonderful public speaker on climate issues.   In one public lecture Dr. White gave a couple of years ago he discussed the climate change denialist as being typically a libertarian who 'acts like a two-year old throwing a temper tantrum'. I do not care to give two-year olds equal status in a discussion of something as important as humanity's future.

I frankly do not understand mealy-mouthed arguments that "each side has good arguments" regarding the potential for disaster humankind is creating for itself with its profligate propensity to use the planet's atmosphere, oceans and land as waste dumps. We're already seeing bad impacts with more in store. Time for the precautionary principle to be considered again.


Quoting 269. Astrometeor:



I have family in that area in Walton, Indiana. My cousin got married Saturday in Adams, Indiana. It was awesome to attend.

The Wabash river was running at the tops of its banks, but the creeks in the area have already fallen back to normal levels.

I didn't know there were lakes in that area....it's pretty flat with some hills, but they're small hills.


The three lakes in question are to the east of Walton .. I have family just north of Logansport .. My wife was there last week and Lake Mississinewa, lake Salamonie, and Lake Huntington .. Mississinewa was with in a foot of the top of the dam and more rain was expected .. release levels were hampered because of flooding down stream of all three dams ..
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm still struggling to understand why those against AGW have spent years discounting thousands upon thousands of scientists that have published countless peer-reviewed articles only to latch onto a sole physicist as evidence that climate change is a hoax.


I don't know if you saw the exciting conclusion to that, but Dr. Robert Massey made a clarifying statement on that paper by Zharkova. Massey is the Deputy Executive Director of the Royal Astronomical Society of which Zharkova presented the findings of her paper.



I guess back to the drawing board. :)
Quoting 263. Naga5000:



I would just add that if you have questions, Twitter and respectful emails usually will get you clarifications from the researchers. I have had great interactions when I have encountered something I didn't fully grasp.


Exactly. As a neophyte researcher, I sincerely enjoy receiving questions, comments, & concerns from those who are interested in my work, and as a college student, this is also a great way (excuse :) ) to establish some sort of relationship with professors & build networks. You're absolutely right that respectful, sincere, & direct requests/responses are more likely to convince others to acknowledge your viewpoint, concern, etc. I guess while I'm at it, I'll willingly admit I'm not a perfect person, & I certainly don't always produce the most considerate replies (as I have tried to do w/ Kenfa03) to those who direct commentary towards me. It's obvious that many of you have seen my frustration boil over on this blog from time to time, but deep down, I mean well & don't want anybody to be hurt...
Quoting 274. whitewabit:



The three lakes in question are to the east of Walton .. I have family just north of Logansport .. My wife was there last week and Lake Mississinewa, lake Salamonie, and Lake Huntington .. Mississinewa was with in a foot of the top of the dam and more rain was expected .. release levels were hampered because of flooding down stream of all three dams ..


Thanks for the info, Wabit.

I did manage to take some cool pictures of mammatus clouds, including mammatus off of a cell that brought two tornadoes to Lafayette, Indiana, according to the local news on Friday. I'll upload those tomorrow.
The Pope makes the moral argument for action against AGW and how endless greed by the top one percent and huge corporations contribute to inaction due to love of money. The Pentagon has been clear that AGW is a huge issue and will lead to future conflicts and a whole list of problems including the displacement of people on a huge scale. 97% of climate scientists have made it very clear the dangers we are and will be facing with AGW. All that and so much more and yet it's barely a blip on the average American's things I need to be concerned about list. Until it reaches the masses, and the masses push for REAL political action to address AGW, lip service and bills that don't really move the needle will be what we get. We're divided 50/50 in America, and it's not by chance. Brilliant political and social programming have us now as a nothing changes society. We've lost all political clout as a people. We've given all to the super rich and corporations who totally own our politicians and system. We've been conquered by our own system run by the super rich and elite and we're too busy arguing far Left and far Right points to even notice.
Quoting 276. Webberweather53:



Exactly. As a neophyte researcher, I sincerely enjoy receiving questions, comments, & concerns from those who are interested in my work, and as a college student, this is also a great way (excuse :) ) to establish some sort of relationship with professors & build networks. You're absolutely right that respectful, sincere, & direct requests/responses are more likely to convince others to acknowledge your viewpoint, concern, etc. I guess while I'm at it, I'll willingly admit I'm not a perfect person, & I certainly don't always produce the most considerate replies (as I have tried to do w/ Kenfa03) to those who direct commentary towards me. It's obvious that many of you have seen my frustration boil over on this blog from time to time, but deep down, I mean well & don't want anybody to be hurt...


It's okay to get mad at TropicalAnalyst but you'll have to get in line, there's several of us in line to get at him. :)
So I just picked up 0.6" in 15 minutes from this little bad boy....


Quoting 273. rayduray2013:


What we need as a nation is to make sure that the anti-intellectuals and the anti-science people aren't the ones in charge of public policy. Over the past 30 years I'd grade our nation with an "F" on this score, considering the rise of right-libertarianism with its penchant for a high-handed disregard for the common good. Dr. Jim White, UC-Boulder is a wonderful public speaker on climate issues.   In one public lecture Dr. White gave a couple of years ago he discussed the climate change denialist as being typically a libertarian who 'acts like a two-year old throwing a temper tantrum'. I do not care to give two-year olds equal status in a discussion of something as important as humanity's future.

I frankly do not understand mealy-mouthed arguments that "each side has good arguments" regarding the potential for disaster humankind is creating for itself with its profligate propensity to use the planet's atmosphere, oceans and land as waste dumps. We're already seeing bad impacts with more in store. Time for the precautionary principle to be considered again.





Agree with you there.
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:



Thanks for the info, Wabit.

I did manage to take some cool pictures of mammatus clouds, including mammatus off of a cell that brought two tornadoes to Lafayette, Indiana, according to the local news on Friday. I'll upload those tomorrow.


Lake Mississinewa probably has the best Crappie fishing in Indiana by the way .. flooding has probably hammered the fish hatch there this years as these lakes have had high water all Spring ..

Quoting 271. Bucsboltsfan:  Now they type in "is global warming a hoax" and reads what is to
them very compelling reasons why it is not real or not caused by humans.
Without any science background, how are they to make a decision? I
don't know the answer to that.

I've faced something similar in my general political research on the Internet. The problem I was facing a few years ago was attempting to sort out all the various NGOs, PACs, think tanks and other "persuaders" on many issues like foreign policy, health care, environment, etc. One of the tools that really helped was something called Sourcewatch.  Sourcewatch tracks what I consider to be the bad guys like ALEC, The Heartland Institute and the nefarious hook-ups between cash seeking political shills like climate change denialist Senator Ted Cruz taking money from the Koch Brothers to further their libertarian denial of responsibility for AGW. 

Another recommendation I can make is Peter Sinclair's excellent Climate Denial Crock of the Week blog. A lot of the fraud among the AGW denialist crowd is exposed to the sunshine on Peter's blog.

Of course for those who wish to be lied to, there's no cure. The only thing we hope for is a return to the sort of politics we had in this nation in the 1950s, before the crazies started infesting Washington and our State Houses and Governor's Mansions to the extent they do today.

Then President Dwight Eisenhower made an astute observation about the sort of creeps represented today by the slimy Koch Brothers or the notorious shills working for Peabody Coal or Exxon on disinformation campaigns...

"Should any political party attempt to
abolish social security, unemployment insurance and eliminate labor laws
and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our
political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that
believes that you can do these things. Among them are a few Texas oil
millionaires, and an occasional politician or businessman from other
areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid."


Sadly for the nation, the number of stupid oil-saturated nitwits in this nation has grown exponentially since we lost our greatness as the best nation on the planet.

Quoting 244. Patrap:

What I always find humor in is that the naysayers bounce in here, to the entry of one the best communicators of the Science of AWG on the internet, with ZERO evidence to counter, and declare some sort of mastery of magical BS.

Interesting, but lacking any science, really just plain old sad.

Neil Armstrong didn't get to the moon with the other 2 men 46 years ago tonight by bloviating.

Science and hard work got er done.




Those same folks probably deny that the moon landings were real too!
We've had three measurable rains in the past week. Actually, in the past 4 days. 0.6" here today, so I think we are easing into a more normal rainy season pattern, finally. Nothing dramatic, just soaking rain several times a week. What a relief.
We've moved at light speed to an anything goes society. Love of self, how many on FB and other sites are idols to themselves? We love fleshly pleasures and are shocked by nothing. (Think the rape in Florida on a beach while hundreds stood by "having a good time") As morally we are rapidly collapsing, at the same time intellectualism is plummeting. It's all connected. We're too busy with "self" to care about others and actually seek truth. We are in real trouble on many fronts and the boat is racing in the opposite direction of positive change to the edge of hope. Makes really addressing the future impact of AGW a long way off I'm afraid.
Quoting 244. Patrap:

What I always find humor in is that the naysayers bounce in here, to the entry of one the best communicators of the Science of AWG on the internet, with ZERO evidence to counter, and declare some sort of mastery of magical BS.

Interesting, but lacking any science, really just plain old sad.

Neil Armstrong didn't get to the moon with the other 2 men 46 years ago tonight by bloviating.

Science and hard work got er done.




Those same folks probably deny that the moon landings were real too!
Quoting 287. HiDesertRat:

Those same folks probably deny that the moon landings were real too!


Everyone knows the moon landings were faked. And the rover's are in a canyon somewhere in remote Arizona and not on Mars....

(sarcasm)

Quoting 278. DeepSeaRising:
 
We've given all to the super rich and corporations who totally own our politicians and system. We've been conquered by our own system run by the super rich and elite and we're too busy arguing far Left and far Right points to even notice.
Good comment. My only quibble would be to say that I see the Left as regards the environment as attempting to merely hold the line. Basically all my Leftie enviro activist friends are engaged in various attempts at  "just saying no" to developers, to rapacious loggers, to bought off Forest Service hacks, etc. The Left is not arguing for any positive advances today that matter to society at large. While in the meantime, the crazies on the Right are given full and free access to the drafts of trade bills like TPP, TTIP, etc. and Congress has its hands tied while the people have absolutely no access to see these corporate-written and corporate friendly agreements. 600 or so corporate lawyers write the agreements that will create a corporate-friendly globaloney future in which national sovereignty and environmental protection are to be cast on the ash heap of history.


  "Is There Anybody Out There."
Typhoon Halola has rapidly intensified over the past few hours and has likely attained Category 2 status.

Quoting 294. PedleyCA:

"Is There Anybody Out There."



yes,,,but they are hiding cause its safer :)

also thanks patrap i had no idea that BS could be magical
MDR waking up?
Quoting 292. leofarnsworth:

... every good mathematician knows, you have to have as many equations as variables or you cannot come up with a definitive answer...


If the variables are constrained so that they must have real number values (not complex / imaginary values), which is often the case in real-world applications, then it is easy to contrive a situation in which there are more variables than equations, but a unique solution. In fact, there can be arbitrarily many variables and only one equation, for which there is a unique solution when the variables are constrained to have real number values. So there could be millions of variables and only one equation, for which there is a unique solution when the variables are so constrained.
Quoting 294. PedleyCA:

  "Is There Anybody Out There."



Howdy Ped!!!

How goes it?

I thought maybe the rain washed you away.
301. JRRP
Quoting 297. unknowncomic:

MDR waking up?


this is 102 h
JRRP - Yes, from a coma to just sleeping...


The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

Scientific evidence for warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years.1

Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate.

The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century.2 Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. They also show that in the past, large changes in climate have happened very quickly, geologically-speaking: in tens of years, not in millions or even thousands.3
swflurker - We either adapt or we die off. Won't be the first time a species has been wiped off the planet.
305. JRRP
Quoting 302. Dakster:

JRRP - Yes, from a coma to just sleeping...


did you see that is not the same forecast ?
Quoting 305. JRRP:


???


You said the MDR has woken up. I said yes. To use an analogy, it woke up from a Coma, but it is still sleeping... I don't see any immediate threat of cyclogensis in the MDR. My un-scientific opinion of course.
Quoting 233. PensacolaDoug:

The 2015" ice-free arctic" was predicted and the media picked it up and spread it like it was a "fact". Just because it didn't appear in a "peer-reviewed journal" doesn't mean it wasn't in the news. I remember it just fine. Some of us remember these predictions and it makes us question the credibility and honesty of those of you who say it never happened.

Here is my understanding how that kerfuffle came about. Al Gore in a speech reported that that a 2008 study from a group related to the US Navy said if the ice loss continued at the rate of 2007 then the Arctic could be sea ice free by 2015-2019. The part of that the most people miss is "continued at the rate of 2007" which was an exceptionally low year for minimum Arctic sea ice superseded only by 2012. Being the lightning rod he is for the climate contrarians everything Gore says on the subject gets put under a microscope so the contrarians report it as "Sea ice predicted to disappear by 2015". Meanwhile the IPCC reports were projecting that would happen some time near the end of the 21st Century and the latest AR5 only moves that to the mid-century for the highest emissions scenario. The IPCC reports tend to be conservative about things like this but they represent the consensus view of science. The most daring projections I've seen say the late 2020s or 2030s.

So by taking the sources reporting on Gore's speech at their word and not digging a bit deeper to find what was actually said by the source and where the mainstream of science is on the subject it's easy to be misled.
308. JRRP
Quoting 306. Dakster:



You said the MDR has woken up. I said yes. To use an analogy, it woke up from a Coma, but it is still sleeping... I don't see any immediate threat of cyclogensis in the MDR. My un-scientific opinion of course.

lol I did not say that
My apologies, you quoted someone that said that. I missed it...
310. JRRP
Quoting 309. Dakster:

My apologies, you quoted someone that said that. I missed it...

no problem
311. emguy
Quoting 301. JRRP:


this is 102 h



Nope....another dead stick floting down the creek....
312. JRRP
Quoting 311. emguy:



Nope....another dead stick floting down the creek....

yeah... look the SAL in front of it
Quoting 245. PensacolaDoug:

... The media never comes back and points out the prediction was wrong.

So what? Most of the time the predictions reported in the media are a corruption of what the scientists actually said. How can some random journalist's garbled report of a prediction be used to refute the conclusions of a whole boat-load of scientific publications? Illogical in the extreme.

Furthermore, whether you want to admit it or not, your statement is true on both ends of the ideological spectrum. No one in media these days admits to making mistakes and corrects them on the record. Not even factual errors. All it proves is that the media these days lack any concept of professional ethics.

True also of politicians. Again, on both ends of the political spectrum. And in business and finance as well. Not much ethical high-ground in those parts of society, either.

Only group in society that can reasonably said to admit and correct errors fairly consistently are the scientists. Even in that group there are exceptions, and the self-correcting mechanism inherent in scientific research could be more efficient than it is.

But like Capitalism, Science may not be perfect, but it's still the best hope we've got, and maybe the best we'll ever have.
Next week could get interesting..0OZ GFS............................................... ...........
This is an interesting map, showing just how little of the Northern Hemisphere is below freezing today.


Live pictures of crumbling of buildings in flood of Iran.



Flash floods in northern Iran cause buildings to collapse
Floods in northern Iran claim lives of at least a dozen people.
JPOST.COM STAFF \ 07/20/2015
Heavy rains caused flash floods in northern Iran on Sunday that led to buildings to collapse in the Alborz Province and to the deaths of at least a dozen people on Sunday, Iranian media reported.
According to the reports there were more people that were unaccounted for.
The force of the runoff from the flooding was so strong that dozens of cars were swept away including some with passengers inside.
Quoting 219. Webberweather53:



It's more about the significance of man's role in climate. One end of the spectrum thinks man is undoubtedly the primary influence and consequences will arise if measures aren't taken to mitigate it as soon as possible, with much of this basis placed the fact that CO2, like many tri-atomic nuclei, intercepts infrared radiation at specific frequencies, which excites the molecule & thus transfers some of the energy to other surrounding parcels (via conduction & collisional line broadening) & the reductionist climate models that attempt to accurately simulate & hindcast the plethora of associated & quasi-independent processes that surround the overall climate.

The opposing end of the spectrum questions the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2, often giving more credence to natural & external forcings (solar activity, cosmic ray flux, ENSO, PDO, etc.). You'll also find upon objectively taking a step back, it's fairly common for those on either end of the spectrum to exploit extreme opposing viewpoints to uphold their views on AGW. Ultimately, my advice is to stick strictly to published literature, physics, observations, & those who promulgate them...

Webber. I have a question for you.

Do you agree with this statement:

"The recent increase in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the result of human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels. As the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased, so has the average surface temperature of the Earth."
Quoting 268. rayduray2013:


First, you need a solid background in science if you are going to be able to make heads-or-tails of the arguments. Keep in mind that real climate scientists are in near 100% agreement that mankind is twisting the dials on the climate controls. And that our actions have consequences beyond the mere warming of our back yards. We're altering the chemistry of the oceans, we're melting ice sheets and glaciers at rates that can potentially mean we'll destroy every harbor at sea level on the planet within a couple centuries. We're on a predictable path the be forced to depopulate Bangladesh, New Orleans, Miami, much of the Netherlands and large swathes of productive agricultural lands across the planet.

Then you have the denialists who argue that it would be foolish to turn coal miners into wind energy technicians. Just as to why this is bad is never explained. But I guess the coal companies and the oil companies have reasons to make sure humanity doesn't come to its senses about where we're headed.


Ok I admit we are contributing to climate change. Now what? Don't think I can make it without electricity or fuel for vehicle.
Quoting 316. LargoFl:




It's going to be wet in Florida.
Quoting 323. Kenfa03:


Ok I admit we are contributing to climate change. Now what? Don't think I can make it without electricity or fuel for vehicle.

Neither need to depend on fossil fuels. Hardly breaking news I'd surmise.
Quoting 324. rmbjoe1954:



It's going to be wet in Florida.
yes it sure is,just hope no tropical somethings hitting us.
remember the you tube from soccorro island a few days ago. thats what s fl. could look like. prepare and good luck everyone.
Quoting 325. cRRKampen:


Neither need to depend on fossil fuels. Hardly breaking news I'd surmise.

Solar panels and battery powered vehicles? Is that what you are doing?
Quoting 328. Kenfa03:


Solar panels and battery powered vehicles? Is that what you are doing?


People make the most rational economic choices they can.
Link

Interesting story about the LA Angels using a helicopter to dry the field. Their stadium in So Cal doesn't have the drainage capability to keep up with the amount of rain that fell. Pretty cool method.
ITALY'S LARGEST METRO - NEW RECORD WARMEST NIGHT: The record all-time warmest overnight minimum temperature in Milan, Italy of at least 28 C / 82 F was reportedly set on the night of July 20-21, 2015. Milan is the largest metropolitan area in Italy according to some reckonings.

Link
Quoting 328. Kenfa03:


Solar panels and battery powered vehicles? Is that what you are doing?


One of the problems with solar panels, aside from the high cost, is that they can void your roof warranty. At least, that's often the case here in FL. I remember once seeing a "60 Minutes" story a few years ago about a company in California developing a box thingamajig that stores some form of renewable energy that can power entire office buildings. I believe Google, and some of the other businesses in Silicon Valley, obtain a lot of their electricity this way. I have been meaning to research that more and find out what happened and why it didn't catch on more. I don't remember what the science was behind it.
Quoting 320. Xandra:


Webber. I have a question for you.

Do you agree with this statement:

"The recent increase in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the result of human activities, mainly the burning of fossil fuels. As the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased, so has the average surface temperature of the Earth."



Well, of course this is true, but again I'm more concerned about the sensitivity of the climate to CO2, & throwing politics aside, this is what actually divides most on the issue, and I think many often overlook & misrepresent this part of the issue. Most studies to date use climate models to assess equilibrium climate sensitivity, with sensitivity ranging anywhere from ~1.5 to 4.5C per doubling of CO2, a spread of 3 orders of magnitude, with "highly" confident range of 1-6C, (IPCC AR5) a doubling in the magnitude of the spread of ECS. Many of the studies highlight a plethora of factors that significantly contribute & alter the ECS, including but not limited to albedo feedback from clouds, convective mixing/overturning in the lower levels that dry out the sub-cloud layers, among others, but it's unclear which forcing mechanism(s) are to primarily blame. Thus coupled with exceptionally high ECS range, this precludes accurate & confident future climate projections as well as adequate policy decisions. We're not much closer to resolving & reducing these error bars than we were several decades ago, which is also a reflection upon our advancement in understanding of CO2's role in the climate system.
Quoting 334. tampabaymatt:



One of the problems with solar panels, aside from the high cost, is that they can void your roof warranty. At least, that's often the case here in FL. I remember once seeing a "60 Minutes" story a few years ago about a company in California developing a box thingamajig that stores some form of renewable energy that can power entire office buildings. I believe Google, and some of the other businesses in Silicon Valley, obtain a lot of their electricity this way. I have been meaning to research that more and find out what happened and why it didn't catch on more. I don't remember what the science was behind it.


Look into Paul Brown. He invented a nuclear battery that essentially would use the spent nuclear material in rods used in nuclear power plants. A seemingly much better option than storing them in massive caves in Nevada/Utah. Some claim he was being threatened by the government and big fossil interests, and tragically he died in a car crash when he was only 35 or 40ish I can't remember.
337. bwi
Good morning. After a slow start, this year's melt in Greenland has picked up, with daily melt extent appearing to stabilize at roughly one standard deviation above the 1980 to 2010 average
Good Morning. On the tropical front, the Atlantic is a grave yard this morning and two storms in the Pacific; the MJO must be down..........................


Quoting 335. Webberweather53:



Well, of course this is true, but again I'm more concerned about the sensitivity of the climate to CO2, & throwing politics aside, this is what actually divides most on the issue, and I think many often overlook & misrepresent this part of the issue. Most studies to date use climate models to assess equilibrium climate sensitivity, with sensitivity ranging anywhere from ~1.5 to 4.5C per doubling of CO2, a spread of 3 orders of magnitude, with "highly" confident range of 1-6C, (IPCC AR5) a doubling in the magnitude of the spread of ECS. Many of the studies highlight a plethora of factors that significantly contribute & alter the ECS, including but not limited to albedo feedback from clouds, convective mixing/overturning in the lower levels that dry out the sub-cloud layers, among others, but it's unclear which forcing mechanism(s) are to primarily blame. Thus coupled with exceptionally high ECS range, this precludes accurate & confident future climate projections as well as adequate policy decisions. We're not much closer to resolving & reducing these error bars than we were several decades ago, which is also a reflection upon our advancement in understanding of CO2's role in the climate system.


I agree with everything except the last line, the large range of ECS is more an uncertainty in feedbacks from a doubling of CO2 rather than an uncertainty about understanding CO2's role. This is evidenced by the smaller range of TCR (the simple doubling of CO2 without accounting for new equilibrium through feedbacks) which rangesfrom 1.0 - 2.5 C. It's the feedbacks where most of the uncertainty lies.
And for Conus, a marginal risk for t-storms across the board:

And finally, the relative position of the Conus jet today and shear across the Atlantic:


Quoting 331. Naga5000:



People make the most rational economic choices they can.

I don't think so. They will choose for the very short run and that is by definition impulsive behaviour.
And here is the current look over Conus:

US Composite Satellite Image
Quoting 324. rmbjoe1954:



It's going to be wet in Florida.
Wetter... I think Shrek is going to move into my yard.
Quoting 304. Dakster:

swflurker - We either adapt or we die off. Won't be the first time a species has been wiped off the planet.


Doubt we'll die off. Too much money to be made in adaption and customers for adaption are a requirement to make the money. Might be less customers than we have today, but will suffice for those already quietly setting up the market for it.
And a new study on the brief slowdown in Arctic melt for 2013 that has now resumed per the post below:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/07/arctic -sea-ice-enjoyed-brief-temporary-respite-melting-2 013

(Scientists have been using satellites to gauge sea ice extent, a measure of how much of the oceans area is covered by ice, since 1979; the new data allow oceanwide estimates of sea ice thickness as well.) Between autumn 2010 and 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice dropped by 14%, a decline that's in line with the measurements of sea ice extent during that same period, the researchers say. But in the fall of 2013, sea ice volume was 33% higher than the averageseen in the previous 3 years, the team reports online today in Nature Geoscience. Alas, 2013's increase in sea ice volume may be only temporary: Autumn 2014's volume measured only 25% above the 2010 to 2012 average, a sign that melting has resumed nibbling away at the frozen water. Indeed, last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in their annual State of the Climate report that 2014 was the fourth warmest year in the Arctic since 1900
Quoting 342. cRRKampen:


I don't think so. They will choose for the very short run and that is by definition impulsive behaviour.


Maybe I should have said, those who care to make these decisions by accounting for things like the environment and our impact. :)
Another Global warming blog...this site used to be interesting and fun to visit for Tropical Weather.
Quoting 349. SCwannabee:

Another Global warming blog...this site used to be interesting and fun to visit for Tropical Weather.


Dr. Master's has been doing the monthly climate report for quite a long time. Don't worry, people are still posting about tropical weather and a new post will be on the way shortly. Patience is a virtue.
Quoting 347. hydrus:



Ready for some color over Texas.
Today, twenty-four UK learned and professional societies express their joint views on the risks of climate change and the opportunities for innovation to address those risks.

The signatories include societies of physical scientists, engineers, medical scientists, social scientists & artists, amongst others. This is the first time such a broad range of professional bodies have issued such a unanimous text.

Climate communiqué

The scientific evidence is now overwhelming that the climate is warming and that human activity is largely responsible for this change through emissions of greenhouse gases.

Governments will meet in Paris in November and December this year to negotiate a legally binding and universal agreement on tackling climate change. Any international policy response to climate change must be rooted in the latest scientific evidence. This indicates that if we are to have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming in this century to 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period, we must transition to a zero-carbon world1 by early in the second half of the century.

To achieve this transition, governments should demonstrate leadership by recognising the risks climate change poses, embracing appropriate policy and technological responses, and seizing the opportunities of low-carbon and climate-resilient growth.

Risks. Climate change poses risks to people and ecosystems by exacerbating existing economic, environmental, geopolitical, health and societal threats, and generating new ones. These risks increase disproportionately as the temperature
increases. Many systems are already at risk from climate change. A rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels would lead to further increased risk from extreme weather and would place more ecosystems and cultures in significant danger. At or above 4°C, the risks include substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, and fundamental changes to human activities that today are taken for granted.

Responses. Responding to the challenge will require deploying the full breadth of human talent and invention. Creative policy interventions and novel technological solutions need to be fostered and applied. This will require a sustained
commitment to research, development, entrepreneurship, education, public engagement, training and skills.

Opportunities. While the threats posed by climate change are far-reaching, the ways in which we tackle them can be a source of great opportunity. There exists vast potential for innovation, for example in low-carbon technologies.

Capturing this potential quickly and effectively will drive economic progress. There are also significant additional benefits available from climate mitigation and adaptation actions, including food, energy and water security, air quality, health improvements, and safeguarding the services that ecosystems provide.

Actions need to be taken now, by governments, individuals, businesses, local communities and public institutions, if we are to tackle this global challenge, deliver the required cuts in emissions, and take maximum advantage of the available opportunities and additional benefits.

1 Net zero global carbon dioxide emissions.

Signed by:
Academy of Medical Sciences
Academy of Social Sciences
British Academy
British Ecological Society
Challenger Society for Marine Science
Geological Society
Institution of Civil Engineers
Institute of Physics
Institution of Chemical Engineers
Institution of Environmental Sciences
Learned Society of Wales
London Mathematical Society
Royal Astronomical Society
Royal Economic Society
Royal Geographical Society
Royal Meteorological Society
Royal Society
Royal Society of Arts
Royal Society of Chemistry
Royal Society of Edinburgh
Society for General Microbiology
Society of Biology
Wellcome Trust
Zoological Society of London
Quoting 339. Naga5000:



I agree with everything except the last line, the large range of ECS is more an uncertainty in feedbacks from a doubling of CO2 rather than an uncertainty about understanding CO2's role. This is evidenced by the smaller range of TCR (the simple doubling of CO2 without accounting for new equilibrium through feedbacks) which rangesfrom 1.0 - 2.5 C. It's the feedbacks where most of the uncertainty lies.


Yes, ultimately it's the feedbacks that determine the significance of CO2's role in the climate system, there's no getting around that.
Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson did some excellent posts recently with regard to the tropical storms threatening parts of Asia and Mr. Henson did an excellent post yesterday on severe weather issues.....................GW is just part of the normal discussion on here (and at some point in time, tropical weather/storms will be impacted by climate change issues).

It's all part of the "big blue marble" concept......................
GM all..

00z run..06z looks to be stuck..again on the NCEP site..they always having technical issues...they need some funding in their IT department..

At Vatican conference, world mayors urge action on climate change
Source: Reuters - Tue, 21 Jul 2015 11:39 GMT
VATICAN CITY, July 21 (Reuters) - Mayors and governors from major world cities on Tuesday will urge global leaders to take bold action at this year's U.N. climate change summit, saying it may be the last chance to tackle human-induced global warming.
Pope Francis has invited some 65 local and regional leaders to attend a two-day conference on how cities can address what the Vatican calls the "interconnected emergencies" of climate change and human trafficking.
It is the Vatican's latest attempt to influence a United Nations summit in Paris in December aiming for a global deal to combat climate change after past failures.
The pope issued an encyclical in April demanding swift action to save the planet from environmental ruin and urging world leaders to hear "the cry of the earth and the cry of the poor".
Mayors from South America, Africa, the United States, Europe and Asia will later on Tuesday sign a declaration stating that the Paris summit "may be the last effective opportunity to negotiate arrangements that keep human-induced warming below 2 degrees centigrade."
Leaders should come to a "bold agreement that confines global warming to a limit safe for humanity while protecting the poor and the vulnerable...," says the declaration, a copy of which was seen by Reuters.
High-income countries should help finance the cost of climate change mitigation in low-income countries, it says.
In a direct rejection of so-called climate change deniers, the declaration says: "Human-induced climate change is a scientific reality, and its effective control is a moral imperative for humanity." ...

Whole report see link above.
06z GFS Ensembles..

maybe..



High pressure strengthening overhead...



(Round Rock, Texas)
Looking East, the African wave train continues to prime:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?
Just be patient. That stuff takes time ok.
CMC forms a potential storm Friday, then forms a low in the Gulf and off the SE coast early next week. All these places have to be watched because these lows will be in favorable conditions.
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?


Ask yourself this question.....would you love to be without power, transportation, and work for a 2 to 3 week period, at the least during the hottest time of the year?

Careful what you pray for.
Here is the Gulf system.
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years…
lach-e-sis-m: (LAK-uh-sizz-um) noun 1 : The desire to be struck by disaster. (etymology: from the Greek fate Lachesis, the apportioner, who decided how much time for life was to be allowed for each person or being.)
It's common on this site. ;-)
Good summary; but, why insert "This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," when it doesn't correlate with model predictions?
Quoting 357. ncstorm:

06z GFS Ensembles..

maybe..




basically by early august, it will be time to start looking to the MDR for a storm or two. shear will be lower (climatology has shown it will as we get closer to the peak) and the MDR isn't as cool as before plus the tropical waves so far have been healthy coming off of Africa and the Saharan Air Layer has been atypically weaker than it usually is this time of year.
Quoting 336. MattyU092:



Look into Paul Brown. He invented a nuclear battery that essentially would use the spent nuclear material in rods used in nuclear power plants. A seemingly much better option than storing them in massive caves in Nevada/Utah. Some claim he was being threatened by the government and big fossil interests, and tragically he died in a car crash when he was only 35 or 40ish I can't remember.

Actually, the plan to store spent fuel from our domestic nuclear power plants underground at Yucca Mountain was (at least temporarily) shelved by president Obama. Perhaps fine for some folks in Nevada who oppose Yucca Mountain, but not a good plan for anyone living near a nuclear power plant. For decades (since the Carter Admin), spent fuel from nuclear plants has not been reprocessed, but instead is stored (much of it outside) at the plants where the fuel was used. Personally, I'd rather have it buried 100's of feet underground in the desert of Nevada, than to merely have it stored in a concrete cask behind a chain-link fence or two or three. Anyway, that is our current state of spent nuclear fuel here in the USA.
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?

I am sure the residents of Bermuda would enjoy deflecting the hurricanes elsewhere. Next time one is forecasted for Bermuda fly to Bermuda and then get stranded which is no fun and then you will be praying to return to SE FLA.
Quoting 349. SCwannabee:

Another Global warming blog...this site used to be interesting and fun to visit for Tropical Weather.
This isn't, strictly speaking, a global warming entry; it's merely a roundup of June weather and climate extremes. In fact, none of this month's entries have been about global warming. Here's the July-to-date breakdown by headline;

Tropical weather: 11
Non-tropical weather: 6
Miscellaneous: 2
Climate change/global warming: 0

So your complaint seems off-target. Are you sure you're commenting in the right forum? ;-)
most models are hinting at 2 spots next week,gulf and southeast coast....................
Development is looking possible early next week somewhere from E GULF to SE US Coastal waters. Stay tuned.-HurricaneTracker App
Quoting 366. glennburge:

Good summary; but, why insert "This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," when it doesn't correlate with model predictions?


Well because they do. I would double check your sources of information.

CIMP3:


And CIMP5:
No development expected of any of these pouches, Pouch 09L will get more convection once it leaves Africa, but it's spin and convection will die down thereafter.
That's gross

Quoting 358. tornadodude:

High pressure strengthening overhead...



(Round Rock, Texas)
so while the CMC does not show anything forming around florida it does show a low exiting the carolinas and becoming active in about 3 and a half days.............


What is the "margin of error" for these global temperature readings?
ecmwf again negative for florida...shows the front exiting the carolinas...but does nothing with it......

gfs same for florida...also shows this feature coming off the carolinas...and also does nothing with it......

Although, these waves will help clear out the SAL and make a open pathway for a wave that can form without being suffocated by dust. The shear is also forecast to lessen, and with August starting next week, it is time to start watching the West Coast of Africa, no matter what season it is.
the navgem is equally unimpressed...........i am though...and will remain in hurricane mode....

Quoting 366. glennburge:

Good summary; but, why insert "This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," when it doesn't correlate with model predictions?
Exactly how tight do you demand the correlation to be? Actual climate response has been within the margins of error of CMIP3 and CMIP5. I'm pretty sure most members here are ok with tropical storm track models that do as well.
Quoting 380. BSBuzz:

What is the "margin of error" for these global temperature readings?


Plus minus .08C or .14F
Quoting 377. Climate175:

No development expected of any of these pouches, Pouch 09L will get more convection once it leaves Africa, but it's spin and convection will die down thereafter.


If those pouches manage to survive their trek into the GOM or around the Bahamas they could develop; otherwise, they will just spin themselves into oblivion.
Caribbean is being dominated by shear, so nothing going to get going for sure. I bet people are enjoying their Caribbean cruises down there with no worries about a tropical storm or hurricane coming to ruin it.
Quoting 375. Marshalldoc:

As I wrote on June 19th, when you 1st listed the Golan temperature record, Israel has illegally annexed the Golan Heights, an act not recognized internationally. It is more correct to list the Golan as 'Israeli occupied Syria'.

Agree entirely but I do not agree to the suggested measure, because I find the regional cold record far more relevant than the political situation for the subject of this blog. We will have to call it 'a national record for Israel'. It would never be one for Syria anyway.
The situation reflects the arbitrariness of national records anyway, as nation-states break up or even disappear while others new come to exist (e.g. Kosovo, South Sudan). So we'll need a wee bit of salt for any such number.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 323. Kenfa03:


Ok I admit we are contributing to climate change. Now what? Don't think I can make it without electricity or fuel for vehicle.
Who says you have to?
Quoting 328. Kenfa03:


Solar panels and battery powered vehicles? Is that what you are doing?
The decisions are not simple for individuals.

Take vehicles, for example. My car is in great shape and I don't drive a ton: I'm retired. With reasonable care, it will last the rest of my life. It gets ~24 mpg in city driving. I could cut CO2 emissions from driving by switching to a plug-in electric, but the CO2 I would save driving would never overcome the CO2 emitted in building the new electric car, so there's no point switching--at least from a mitigation point of view.

As to photoelec. panels, I have a couple of problems: a new roof and a cranky Home Owners Assoc. I'm not giving up, though. I want to be able to spin the meter backwards sometimes.

Quoting 323. Kenfa03:


Ok I admit we are contributing to climate change. Now what? Don't think I can make it without electricity or fuel for vehicle.
Recently in a very windy couple of days the nation of Denmark produced 140% of its electrical needs with wind power. While unusual, this is a harbinger of a better future when electricity can be produced without the use of fossil fuels and their contribution to the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the oceans. As to vehicles, some of the most prestigious awards for automobile design are going to the all-electric Tesla Model S. LINK  and LINK  

If electric cars can be powered by wind, sun, nuclear or hydro, there's no GHG emissions from fossil fuel. So, what you can see here is a future in which humanity can begin the process of reversing the Keeling Curve, i.e. we can begin to lower the GHG we're dumping as waste into our one and only atmosphere. There's a better future. We just need the will to get there.

It is a wicked myth perpetrated by certain vested interests that if we abandon coal and oil as primary fuels that we'll all be freezing in the dark. That's simply a myth. :)
Quoting 386. Naga5000:



Plus minus .08C or .14F


Thank you.

So the temperature differences between "records" are much smaller than the margin of error. I don't see how anyone can claim a global record with very much confidence given that.
Quoting 395. BSBuzz:



Thank you.

So the temperature differences between "records" are much smaller than the margin of error. I don't see how anyone can claim a global record with very much confidence given that.


Which June would you propose we give it to? It beat the old record by .12C, more than the margin oferror. Besides, error works both ways. This line of thought is silly. Regardless of exact warmest, the top ten warmest months have all occurred since 1998. Want to calculate the odds of that?