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Moisture-Packed Atmosphere Fueling a Week of Severe Weather

By: Bob Henson 7:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2015

While the North Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane this year (see our post from Tuesday morning for a full tropical update), extremely muggy air across a broad swath of the Midwest has millions of people wiping their brows, downing untold gallons of iced beverages, and keeping an eye out for severe storms. The upper-level flow is often too weak by midsummer to support supercells, but a band of stronger jet-stream winds now extends from the Midwest toward the Northeast, lending support to evening thunderstorms congealing overnight into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). One such MCS maintained itself across a jaw-dropping distance: it developed over Minnesota on Sunday night and was still recognizable as a weak line of storms pushing offshore from the Carolinas early Tuesday morning. Four tornadoes were reported late Sunday as the system organized over western Minnesota, and NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged several hundred reports of high wind over the MCS track on Sunday night and Monday. Was this event a derecho (a long-lived, thuderstorm-related wind storm)? Although its winds were widespread, most reports were in the 60 – 70 mph range, which resulted in mainly minor damage. Derechoes typically have at least a few reports of winds gusting to at least 75 mph, as implied in SPC’s website on derechoes. However, the Sunday-Monday event as a whole is consistent with the characteristics of derechoes put forth in a widely cited 2005 BAMS paper. (Thanks to Stu Ostro, The Weather Channel, for background on derecho definitions.)


Figure 1. The progress of the mesoscale convective complex from Minnesota across the Midwest from late Sunday into Monday afternoon. Image credit: Greg Carbin/NOAA Storm Prediction Center.


Severe storms regenerated behind the initial MCS on Monday evening, bringing more heavy rain and high wind to parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia that were struck the night before. Tennis-ball sized hail (2.5” diameter) was reported by a CoCoRaHS observer at Burnham-Wegewisch, IL (in Cook County, just southeast of Chicago), and hail close to 4” in diameter was observed near Marseilles, IL. Far west of the main action on Monday evening, a lone supercell in central Kansas produced a photogenic tornado northwest of Hutchinson (see Figure 2). By Monday evening, close to 200,000 customers had lost power as a result of the day’s storms, and flash flooding led to at least one fatality and some 150 homes damaged or destroyed in Johnson County, KY. All told, Monday produced a total of at least 477 “filtered” severe reports in the SPC database. That's the largest number on a single date since November 17, 2013, according to The Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen.

Yet another large MCS was making its way across southeastern Ohio on Tuesday afternoon. SPC has placed a region from eastern Kentucky and Tennessee through the Carolinas in an enhanced risk of severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a large slight risk area covering much of the east-central U.S. and a smaller slight-risk area in western Kansas. Several dispersed areas of slight risk are in the SPC’s Day 2 outlook for Wednesday.


Figure 2. The only tornado reported with Monday’s severe weather occurred in central Kansas. Image credit: wunderphotographer rrose1. A YouTube video features a brief but spectacular clip of this tornado obtained via drone.


What’s making this summer so humid?
From the Midwest to the Southeast, the summer thus far has been marked by frequently sultry conditions. Dew point readings in the vicinity of 75°F have been commonplace; for a temperature of 95°F, this would correspond to a relative humidity of 53% and a heat index of 108°F. Nashville recorded a dew point of 81°F on Tuesday afternoon, its highest reading since August 1995. The moist conditions have been fostered by consistent southerly flow of near-surface air from the Gulf of Mexico, and at times by upper-level moisture streaming into the U.S. from the tropical Pacific, where El Niño continues to intensify. Some of the moisture has arrived from below, as summer heat allows water vapor to escape from wet soils left behind by record-setting rains. Both Texas and Oklahoma saw their wettest month on record in May, and Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio all saw their wettest June on record.


Figure 3. Temperature and dewpoint trace for Monday, July 13, from WU personal weather station KIAWATER4, located in Waterloo, IA. Dewpoints touched 80°F around midday.


The extremely unstable air across the Midwest this week is also a partial byproduct of agriculture. The highest U.S. dewpoints in July are often found not along the Gulf Coast but in the heart of the Corn Belt, as the enormous leaves of fast-growing corn plants send vast amounts of moisture into the air through evapotranspiration. As covered in depth by WU weather historian Chris Burt, the highest reliably measured dew point in the United States—an excruciating 90°F—was reported at Appleton, Wisconsin, on July 13, 1999 (with an air temperature of 101°F!). As farmers learn how to pack plants ever more tightly into limited space, there’s more leaf area per acre, which means more moisture pulled into the plant from deep roots can be sent back into the atmosphere. A team led by David Changnon (Northern Illinois University) published an analysis in 2003 of dewpoint increases observed at Chicago’s Midway Airport from 1928 through 2002. The authors attribute the rise to two factors: “(1) the existence of average to above-average regional precipitation anomalies occurring in May and during the [20-day] period prior to the heat event, and (2) changes in agricultural practices that have led to enhanced evapotranspiration rates in the Midwest.” A 2010 analysis by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet found that the average moisture content in the summertime atmosphere [Jun-Aug) at Des Moines increased by about 13% from 1974 to 2008, as cited in a report by Eugene Takle (Iowa State University).

We’ll have a new post by Wednesday afternoon at the latest.

Bob Henson


Figure 10. An eerie set of mammatus clouds developed over Otter Tail County, Minnesota, as a long-lived storm complex began taking shape on Sunday. Image credit: wunderphotographer spacey84.


Figure 10.. Monday’s fast-moving storm complex pushes through Indianapolis, IN, near Kuntz Stadium. Image credit: wunderphotographer mkennindy.



Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Bob ... looking forward to it ... but hope People will keep an EYE to the SKY
Mammatus clouds
My all time favorite type of cloud. They just look so unreal and unworldly.
Awesome picture
Thanks Dr. Henson!
Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive
lightning... up to nickel sized hail and 45 to 55 mph winds for
southeastern Palm Beach County until 400 PM EDT...

* at 335 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Kings Point... or near Delray Beach...
moving east at 10 mph.

* Frequent to excessive lightning... gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph...
up to nickel-sized hail... torrential downpours... or a combination
of these are possible. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection.
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow
around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building
until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Boca Raton... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach... Lake Worth... Highland
Beach... Ocean Ridge... Lantana... Village of Golf... Kings Point...
dunes Road... hamptons at Boca Raton... whisper walk... Hypoluxo...
South Palm Beach... Gulf Stream... Briny Breezes... Manalapan... Boca
west... morikami park and villages of Oriole.
Wow, we are already near the middle of July! The month seems to be going quick. It felt just like yesterday we were saying Happy New Year.
Thanks for the update, shield still up over Texas...
More on that Tornado in Kansas here.
Link
I live just north of Nashville:



and yet, I am starting to wonder if I'll get any rain. I had some drops, but now the sun's back.

Thanks Dr.Henson, up here in central Canada it's warm, humid and we've had a few tornadoes already with one yesterday. A lot of energy in the system right now and according to WU forecast more storms for us this week...
Great post, and wunderful photos! Thanks, Mr. Henson.
Thanks Mr. Henson. Also Grothar if you read this, can you please give me the link to those tropical cyclone probability maps that you post on here, thanks.
Quoting 10. tampabaymatt:



Sure would like to see some color over Texas.
Just checked my WU weather (local PWSs) - and got another fisheries PIS. Out of curiosity, are others getting these notices as well?

"... Public information statement...

The National marine fisheries service announces that the commercial
sector for greater amberjack in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico
is closed effective at 12:01 a.M., Local time, July 19, 2015,
through December 31, 2015. During the commercial closure, greater
amberjack harvested in Gulf federal waters is limited to the bag and
possession limits and may not be purchased or sold. The prohibition
on the sale or Purchase of greater amberjack applies regardless of
whether the fish were harvested in state or federal waters. Direct
any questions to the National marine fisheries service at 727-824-
5305."
Need this blob to go due west, but it's just bouncing around...

Quoting 5. Climate175:
Wow, we are already near the middle of July! The month seems to be going quick. It felt just like yesterday we were saying Happy New Year.


As I have grown older I have come to realize that the years seem be containing fewer days. When I was a small lad, and wanting to be an adult, it seemed like each year contained 765 days. When I was in my forties it seemed like the years only contained 265 days. Now, in my 60's, it seems like by the time I get settled into the new year it is time to celebrate the 4th of July. When that is done I am getting ready for Christmas because Thanksgiving Day has passed before I knew it was here. If, going forward, the years continue to contain fewer days then I may, perhaps, live through as many years as has Grothar. I am beginning to figure out how he did it. :)
Quoting 12. HurricaneAndre:

Thanks Mr. Henson. Also Grothar if you read this, can you please give me the link to those tropical cyclone probability maps that you post on here, thanks.


No.
Thanks Dr. Henson; nice breakdown of these very humid conditions in parts of the mid-west this year.

I don't know the actual stats for South Florida but I would venture that this is probably one of the most humid areas in the US during the summer (having lived there for many years). When you consider the warm flow from the Gulf and Atlantic water sides, the evaporation from the Everglades and agricultural belt down there that helps produce intense t-storms every summer afternoon inland over the Glades, that then migrate to the coast (whether to West to the Naples region or East towards Miami/Ft. Lauderdale), it creates very humid conditions.

It's pretty humid, when you open the door to go outside of the house in the morning and you break out in a dripping sweat walking to the car and I remember many of those days in the summer when I used to live there.
"...The extremely unstable air across the Midwest this week is also a partial byproduct of agriculture. The highest U.S. dewpoints in July are often found not along the Gulf Coast but in the heart of the Corn Belt, as the enormous leaves of fast-growing corn plants send vast amounts of moisture into the air through evapotranspiration...."

Ethanol... the gift that keeps giving!

Quoting 16. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



As I have grown older I have come to realize that the years seem be containing fewer days. When I was a small lad, and wanting to be an adult, it seemed like each year contained 765 days. When I was in my forties it seemed like the years only contained 265 days. Now, in my 60's, it seems like by the time I get settled into the new year it is time to celebrate the 4th of July. When that is done I am getting ready for Christmas because Thanksgiving Day has passed before I knew it was here. If, going forward, the years continue to contain fewer days then I may, perhaps, live through as many years as has Grothar. I am beginning to figure out how he did it. :)
When I graduated high school near some 30 years ago the time seemed to fly by.I was in my 20's 30's and (well women don't like telling there age :) ) I can't believe it's the middle of 2015 xD.
Quoting 9. Frasersgrove:

Thanks Dr.Henson, up here in central Canada it's warm, humid and we've had a few tornadoes already with one yesterday. A lot of energy in the system right now and according to WU forecast more storms for us this week...



Hey, Fras, did they ever figure out how they got those stones to fit so perfectly?
Quoting 17. Grothar:



No.
Can you at least post it please. Thanks.
Quoting 79. Grothar:

Guess what we are finally getting?


Quoting 80. tampabaymatt:



My father in Ft. Lauderdale called to tell me it was thundering. You would have thought he lived in Southern California based on his surprised reaction. Haha
Quoting 82. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all. Currently picking up some precipitation from a thunderstorm passing through the area. It's unusual for us to get this kind of storm without a tropical system in the vicinity at this time of year .
It's still thundering here, though the rain has moved off to the west. Amusing we all had the same reaction to the wx ... Also interesting that the rain is coming from an upper level trough, not a tropical entity ...
img src="We are getting severe weather in many places. Tornado spotted on the ground in Cookeville.



">
Quoting 14. LAbonbon:

Just checked my WU weather (local PWSs) - and got another fisheries PIS. Out of curiosity, are others getting these notices as well?

"... Public information statement...

The National marine fisheries service announces that the commercial
sector for greater amberjack in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico
is closed effective at 12:01 a.M., Local time, July 19, 2015,
through December 31, 2015. During the commercial closure, greater
amberjack harvested in Gulf federal waters is limited to the bag and
possession limits and may not be purchased or sold. The prohibition
on the sale or Purchase of greater amberjack applies regardless of
whether the fish were harvested in state or federal waters. Direct
any questions to the National marine fisheries service at 727-824-
5305."



Normally see them from Southern Regional Headquarters addressed to specific WFOs.
I am going to post these for the third time today.




Quoting 17. Grothar:



No.
But he said PLEASE. Isn't it that the magic word??????
Impact Graphics page busy today.
Nangka - 60 hours

What Does the Lack of Midwest
Warming over the Past 30 Years Mean?

Christopher J. Anderson
Assistant Director
ISU Climate Science Initiative-2006



Quoting 23. BahaHurican:

It's still thundering here, though the rain has moved off to the west. Amusing we all had the same reaction to the wx ... Also interesting that the rain is coming from an upper level trough, not a tropical entity ...



We did not get a single drop from any of that. It went north of us.

News & views from Nature Geoscience [PDF]:

Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather

Friederike E. L. Otto

Published online 13 July 2015



Anthropogenic climate change alters the risk of some extreme weather events. High-resolution computer simulations suggest that Black Sea warming made the devastating 2012 Krymsk flood possible — a virtually impossible event just 30 years ago.

Read more [PDF] >>


Friederike E. L. Otto. Climate change: Attribution of extreme weather Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2484

Meredith, E. P. et al. Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme: Nature Geoscience (2015) doi:10.1038/ngeo2483

-----

Also => RT July, 2012 - Post-apocalyptic Krymsk: Russia’s southern city destroyed by flood (PHOTOS, VIDEO)
Quoting 18. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. Henson; nice breakdown of these very humid conditions in parts of the mid-west this year.

I don't know the actual stats for South Florida but I would venture that this is probably one of the most humid areas in the US during the summer (having lived there for many years). When you consider the warm flow from the Gulf and Atlantic water sides, the evaporation from the Everglades and agricultural belt down there that helps produce intense t-storms every summer afternoon inland over the Glades, that then migrate to the coast (whether to West to the Naples region or East towards Miami/Ft. Lauderdale), it creates very humid conditions.

It's pretty humid, when you open the door to go outside of the house in the morning and you break out in a dripping sweat walking to the car and I remember many of those days in the summer when I used to live there.


Yeah, I'm quite sure that a strong thermal ridge combined with high ground moisture sources, whether that be above average rain, agriculture, or both, is key for 80+ dew points. But it's a strong thermal ridge, which is typical in summer over the plains, combined with unusually high ground moisture from above average rains and the crop influence that is key.

We had a period earlier in June where the dewpoint was often around 79-81. It was due to an unusually strong thermal ridge. And therefore this makes the term "moist airmass" referring to dewpoints deceiving. Thermal ridges cap low level moisture from rising due to the inversions they create, but often that atmosphere is hostile to deep convection due to lower PW's and drier air aloft teaming up with the capping inversion from the ridge. Unless of course, thunderstorms can break through the ridge, which makes severe weather more likely.

When a deep tropical airmass is in place along with troughing, you'll have a hard time seeing dew points higher than 76-77, regardless of how moist the air mass is. And that shouldn't be surprising either, because when the air is favorable for numerous, deep convective growth, moisture rises instead of being capped.

Thermal ridges can be much stronger over the continental U.S. than over FL and the gulf coast, which is also one of the reasons why 100's are rare in FL. On average, FL does not have as powerful of suppressing thermal ridging like the continental U.S. can experience. What's interesting to note, is that this June had more than usual, and not surprisingly, the high dew point/high temp combo was worse than unusual for much of this summer in FL while rainfall coverage was less than usual.


Now that deeper tropical moisture is beginning to move in, and ridge moving out, the summer rainy season is starting to look more normal, which ironically means a lower chance of seeing 80+ dew points.

Quoting 18. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. Henson; nice breakdown of these very humid conditions in parts of the mid-west this year.

I don't know the actual stats for South Florida but I would venture that this is probably one of the most humid areas in the US during the summer (having lived there for many years). When you consider the warm flow from the Gulf and Atlantic water sides, the evaporation from the Everglades and agricultural belt down there that helps produce intense t-storms every summer afternoon inland over the Glades, that then migrate to the coast (whether to West to the Naples region or East towards Miami/Ft. Lauderdale), it creates very humid conditions.

It's pretty humid, when you open the door to go outside of the house in the morning and you break out in a dripping sweat walking to the car and I remember many of those days in the summer when I used to live there.


Baja has us beat -

34. Jedkins01
4:37 PM EDT on July 14, 2015


Great info; I am glad to see that the FSU met program has a very good student..................Keep it coming; your posts are always welcome.
Quoting 2. txjac:

Mammatus clouds
My all time favorite type of cloud. They just look so unreal and unworldly.
Awesome picture
Seconded. That's one of the best shots of mammatus clouds I've ever seen.

BBC Weather@bbcweather
Australian Bureau of Meteorology says Pacific typhoons may be setting up a very strong #ElNino in coming weeks.
Big bow echo about to over run the Memphis, TN area hope people are aware 75-80 mph winds are possible ..
WOW the JTWC made the post analysis:

Ugraded Rammasun to CAT 5:




Upgraded Neoguri to CAT 5:


Upgraded Fengshen to Cat 1 typhoon.

Upgraded Phanfone to 155 mph.

Upgraded Christine to 115 mph (Australia)

Upgraded Ita to CAT 5:


Follow the Cat 5 names in 2014: hahahaha
Gillian (South Indian)
Ita (South Pacific/Australia basin)
Neoguri (Western Pacific)
Rammasun (Western Pacific)
Halong (Western Pacific)
Genevieve (Western Pacific)
Marie (Eastern Pacific)
Vongfong (Western Pacific)
Nuri (Western Pacific)
Hagupit(Western Pacific)
Yes, 10 Category 5 cyclones formed in 2014 around the world. LOL

VS 1997:

Susan (South Pacific)
Ron (South Pacific)
Isa (Western Pacific)
Nestor (Western Pacific)
Rosie (Western Pacific)
Guillermo (Eastern Pacific)
Winnie (Western Pacific)
Oliwa (Western Pacific)
Linda (Eastern Pacific)
Ginger (Western Pacific)
Ivan (Western Pacific)
Joan (Western Pacific)
Keith (Western Pacific)
Paka (Western Pacific)

VS 2015

Bansi
Eunice
Pam
Maysak
Noul
Dolphin
...



Quoting 25. nrtiwlnvragn:



Normally see them from Southern Regional Headquarters addressed to specific WFOs.

Thank you - that makes sense, actually. And you are the Answer Man!
Quoting 31. beell:

What Does the Lack of Midwest
Warming over the Past 30 Years Mean?

Christopher J. Anderson
Assistant Director
ISU Climate Science Initiative-2006






I remember when 100 bushels/acre was considered a good yield. I first noticed this comment in 1973 when I got interested in horticulture.

Quoting 18. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. Henson; nice breakdown of these very humid conditions in parts of the mid-west this year.

I don't know the actual stats for South Florida but I would venture that this is probably one of the most humid areas in the US during the summer (having lived there for many years). When you consider the warm flow from the Gulf and Atlantic water sides, the evaporation from the Everglades and agricultural belt down there that helps produce intense t-storms every summer afternoon inland over the Glades, that then migrate to the coast (whether to West to the Naples region or East towards Miami/Ft. Lauderdale), it creates very humid conditions.

It's pretty humid, when you open the door to go outside of the house in the morning and you break out in a dripping sweat walking to the car and I remember many of those days in the summer when I used to live there.


When you turn on the AC in the car and water condenses on the OUTSIDE windows. Or when the same thing happens and your house windows fog on the outside. Or when you step OUTSIDE and your glasses fog up.

Saw this as I was browsing internet at work (shhhh, dont tell my boss)

Link

The GREY planet: Japanese weather satellite captures true-colour images showing what Earth REALLY looks like without filters or editing
An image taken by a Japanese satellite launch on 7 October 2014 has snapped the true colour of planet Earth
Taken in multiple wavelength bands, the image from the Himawari-8 weather satellite shows Earth's natural colour
To the human eye the planet would appear differently, but this is what it looks like without image enhancement
Himawari-8 took the image from geostationary orbit 22,240 miles (35,790km) away from the planet
Will be used to capture an image every minute to track weather far more accurately


Jus got a tornado warning ..See ya.
Quoting 34. Jedkins01:



Yeah, Now that deeper tropical moisture is beginning to move in, and ridge moving out, the summer rainy season is starting to look more normal, which ironically means a lower chance of seeing 80+ dew points.




I dunno Jed. The ridge is forecast to re-establish itself here but it may only be for a few days. NWS JAX excerpt:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA- LOUISIANA AREA NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MEAN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING THE HOT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES
. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY
REACH THE CENTURY MAKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA WITH INCREASING POPS AND BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
One last post..Sky is pitch black ..street light is on
Quoting 45. txjac:

Saw this as I was browsing internet at work (shhhh, dont tell my boss)

Link

The GREY planet: Japanese weather satellite captures true-colour images showing what Earth REALLY looks like without filters or editing
An image taken by a Japanese satellite launch on 7 October 2014 has snapped the true colour of planet Earth
Taken in multiple wavelength bands, the image from the Himawari-8 weather satellite shows Earth's natural colour
To the human eye the planet would appear differently, but this is what it looks like without image enhancement
Himawari-8 took the image from geostationary orbit 22,240 miles (35,790km) away from the planet
Will be used to capture an image every minute to track weather far more accurately



Steely Blue... I like it, makes us look more sophisticated... and tougher. That's probably why we have not been attacked by extraterrestrials yet. imho :/
Quoting 48. hydrus:

One last post..Sky is pitch black ..street light is on


Get somewhere safe! Now!
Be safe, hydrus. Not sure which one you're in:


Quoting 48. hydrus:

One last post..Sky is pitch black ..street light is on
Be Safe, let us know how it goes!
New York's got an observed tornado:

Quoting 47. StAugustineFL:



I dunno Jed. The ridge is forecast to re-establish itself here but it may only be for a few days. NWS JAX excerpt:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA- LOUISIANA AREA NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MEAN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING THE HOT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES
. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY
REACH THE CENTURY MAKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA WITH INCREASING POPS AND BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


I was referring mainly to this area, the trough will stall here by Thursday into Friday, then washing out by Sunday into Monday, with a weakness remaining here. Temps are expected to below normal across this area with rainfall coverage at to above normal through the period.

This will happen in your area as the trough sinks south of your area and ridging moves in from the NW.
Not quite as high a dew pt or temp today in S C IL today (in the middle of lots of corn) but still pretty sticky. To my N 86 & 72 dp for a 92 HX, to my S - 91 w/ earlier an 80 dp, but now 77 for a 104 HX. Guess starting to get some drier air from the W to NW winds. Further SW saw StL only had a 68 dp, but 96 there for a 101 HX.

Today is also the day of StL's hottest day ever, 115 in 1954. Can't imagine in those brick buildings w/ no A/C. 20 people died that day, got to over 100 before the heat wave broke about a week later. Water usage was twice avg summer days - that was their misery index back then before A/C. Nothing in article about dp or HX, but may have been drier as believe were in a major drought that year.
@ StAug- just shoot me.
i think this is the next area too watch in the E PAC wounder if any mode runs have any thing on this area

Link
"Poof"

Quoting 47. StAugustineFL:



I dunno Jed. The ridge is forecast to re-establish itself here but it may only be for a few days. NWS JAX excerpt:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA- LOUISIANA AREA NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MEAN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING THE HOT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES
. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY
REACH THE CENTURY MAKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA WITH INCREASING POPS AND BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


Oh joy, reduced rain chances for Florida again.
Typhoon Nangka:



Thankfully dry air has hindered intensification and is currently predicted to make landfall as a category 1. Even so, it'll likely bring large waves to the coast and heavy rain - potentially causing flash flooding and landslides.

Typhoon Halola:



A potential threat to Japan in the near future:

Quoting 51. LAbonbon:

Be safe, hydrus. Not sure which one you're in:





Edit: According to WU, he lives in Rock Island, which is halfway between McMinnville and Sparta.

Memory was off.
Brookland , Arkansas HAM OPERATOR MEASURED 81 MPH WIND GUST.
Quoting 54. Jedkins01:



I was referring mainly to this area, the trough will stall here by Thursday into Friday, then washing out by Sunday into Monday, with a weakness remaining here. Temps are expected to below normal across this area with rainfall coverage at to above normal through the period.

This will happen in your area as the trough sinks south of your area and ridging moves in from the NW.


Ok, so you're bragging about your rain chances whilst we may go high and dry up here? :) Just messing Jed. I enjoy your thorough posts.

PS: I saw that water doggie. Better start dinner here. I've posted way too much this evening.
Please have a safe weather evening. Here is the current big convective picture for conus. Keep youy NOAA weather radio and news sources handy if under the gun this evening. It is not looking good over Tennessee at the moment:




Greetings..Still here with the roof on..Waiting to hear from Father working in McMinnville... Looked nasty on radar..Wind around 40 here...
I have not seen a horizontal front like that, across several hundred miles, in quite some time:
Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Last 3 hours:
today Reports Graphic
Going home to watch TWC..........................Please stay safe tonight folks.


This deserved an advisory??
Quoting 61. Astrometeor:



Edit: According to WU, he lives in Rock Island, which is halfway between McMinnville and Sparta.

Memory was off.

Thought that was it but wasn't 100% sure.

hydrus, happy to hear you are safe and sound. Hopefully your dad is fine, too.


Not exactly the cone of err...doom...
Thank you, Mr. Henson, for such an indepth discussion of the impact of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on local/regional weather!! It is incumbent upon us to learn science at this level of detail if we're ever to get closer to real accuracy in weather forecasting. As excess moisture has its own impact, especially in hot weather, so too does the local and regional drying effect of plant-less pavement/buildings, and parched earth.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.h tmlNice water vapor loop showing a little moisture in W Caribbean.
acc/ to accu weather it looks like the british open is going to have fair weather.
Quoting 17. Grothar:



No.


a childs favorite word :)
Quoting 75. islander101010:

acc/ to accu weather it looks like the british open is going to have fair weather.


Gusty winds look likely on Friday/Saturday according to the forecast, light rain showers and not very warm for the spectators. Maximums in Scotland are struggling to reach the mid 60s this week.
Quoting 21. Grothar:



Hey, Fras, did they ever figure out how they got those stones to fit so perfectly?


Not a clue...
Quoting 59. 69Viking:



Oh joy, reduced rain chances for Florida again.

9 out of 10 days, we haven't had anything but hot, sunny weather with some clouds some evenings over the past month plus. Now a dry pattern again? I must have missed the wet pattern. Yes, I know many areas of Central Fl have had substantial rain recently. They keep forecasting wet weather to return, then the ridge reappears. It is already mid July, I am close to deeming this rainy season a bust for my location.

Thats a mean "rainbow" coming my way in that image..
Actually looking at radar that line is moving South..will miss me..
People are upset that we have potential for server storms and it may interrupt the Taylor Swift concert.They don't want to make plans to prepare.Stupidity at its up most finest...
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

People are upset that we have potential for server storms and it may interrupt the Taylor Swift concert.They don't want to make plans to prepare.Stupidity at its up most finest...
Seeing Taylor sSwift live is more important than your life, I guess ...
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

People are upset that we have potential for server storms and it may interrupt the Taylor Swift concert.They don't want to make plans to prepare.Stupidity at its up most finest...


Rational thought and pop culture generally doesn't mix too well ;)
Quoting 56. aquak9:

@ StAug- just shoot me.


Bang....

Hot and humid enough for you?

66F and sunny here. Kinda like paradise.
Quoting 80. HurrMichaelOrl:


9 out of 10 days, we haven't had anything but hot, sunny weather with some clouds some evenings over the past month plus. Now a dry pattern again? I must have missed the wet pattern. Yes, I know many areas of Central Fl have had substantial rain recently. They keep forecasting wet weather to return, then the ridge reappears. It is already mid July, I am close to deeming this rainy season a bust for my location.


Well this hasn't been the best one that's for sure, but that's the nature of weather. Even Oklahoma has years with little severe weather and tornadoes, even the rainforests on the mountain slops of Columbia, Costa Rica, and Washington state can have periods of very dry weather and fire outbreaks. Weather patterns vary a lot, just be glad we live in a place where 7-10 inches is a monthly average precip amount for 4 months. Many places have much more variable precip any month of the year and drought could be bad any time of the year.

I suspect your local areas has also been probably worse than others too, but we will have a more rain season like pattern over the next week. There will be some drier hotter this weather this weekend across north FL and the panhandle, but not in Central and South FL. This is due to drying behind the trough across north FL, but pooling of moisture and lift ahead of the trough across Central and South FL. Deep tropical moisture will increase over the next few days and will likely be well above normal come Friday into Sunday. Today was good coverage and cooler temps, there will be a lot more of that to come in Central and South Florida over this next week if models are correct, and I think they will be. As today was already more active than some of the more rainy models have been showing.

Where models diverge is not the deep moist flow, but how much upper level energy rounds will impact the area, the timing of them, and strength. Models have flipped flopped between stronger amounts of energy bringing rounds of torrential rains to little to no energy at all. Either way, it will be nice pattern for rain, and most areas will see heavy totals over the next several days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
SUBURBS, AS CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE
DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH A SIMILAR WIND PROFILE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN, AS THEY CONGLOMERATE AND SLOW AS THEY NEAR THE BEACHES. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE STEEP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH
COULD MAKE STRONGER STORMS A LITTLE MORE PROBABLE. IN ADDITION,
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING, A DISTURBANCE WILL BE SINKING INTO THE LAKE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH BISECTING ARKLATEX AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC H5 HIGH PRESSURE, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL LIFT NORTH INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS RISE
ALONG THE FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER MORE
TO THE SOUTH, PLACING THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE INTERIOR.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MIDLEVELS WILL ALSO ARRIVE ALONG
THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST, THEY SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS THIS
WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT, SUNDAY WOULD BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS. AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, A TROUGH MAY AGAIN RETURN TO THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURNING AND STORMS FOCUSING
ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.
Quoting 63. StAugustineFL:



Ok, so you're bragging about your rain chances whilst we may go high and dry up here? :) Just messing Jed. I enjoy your thorough posts.

PS: I saw that water doggie. Better start dinner here. I've posted way too much this evening.


lol I know! And thanks, I enjoy your posts as well!

The drying up there looks pretty short term though, as another trough should dig down next week to replace the old one helping to increase rain chances in your area. If you look at how things are now, on a large scale, ridging along with the heat and sinking air is shifting west into the plains while troughing and low pressure overall is showing signs of trending in the southeast in FL compared to most of June and so far this July. This means likely more rain in FL and the southeast in the long run, hopefully, which would be more "normal" for this time of year.

As troughing is beginning to change focus, southeast FL is finally starting to see hint's at drought help, although it's going to need a lot more than some scattered thunderstorms to break 10 inch+ deficits in some places, but anything helps. Florida, especially southeast Florida, has still yet to see a major large scale, major rain total maker, which is much of reason for drought in parts of the state.
Quoting 92. GeoffreyWPB:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Sounds good.
Areas in severe drought in Broward generally experienced 1/3" today with moderate lightning as per the NWS forecast. Nothing like the 5" they seem to get in areas near Orlando every day, but we'll take what we received and hope for more tomorrow.
Quoting 95. CosmicEvents:


Sounds good.
Areas in severe drought in Broward generally experienced 1/3" today with moderate lightning as per the NWS forecast. Nothing like the 5" they seem to get in areas near Orlando every day, but we'll take what we received and hope for more tomorrow.


Yeah sadly they really heavy activity squeezed past Ft. Lauderdale.
Quoting 81. Grothar:





..thats no Moon'
New Horizons "Phone Home" signal is going to covered LIVE by NASA TV at the bottom of the hour.

The Spacecraft is currently in eclipse of the Moon Charon as it passes behind it after flying by Pluto earlier today at only 7800 miles above the surface,



The signal takes 4.5 hours and is due to arrive around 9m EDT I believe.


NASA TV

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

* Iran No Qatar Even With the World's Second Biggest Gas Reserves

*** CERN's LHCb experiment reports observation of exotic pentaquark particles



*** Curiosity rover finds evidence of Mars' primitive continental crust

* Advanced composites may borrow designs from deep sea shrimp



!!! Continued destruction of Earth's plant life places humans in jeopardy: Unless humans slow the destruction of Earth's declining supply of plant life, civilization like it is now may become completely unsustainable, according to a new article.

* Organic farming needs direction to be sustainable: Weak adherence to recommended practices may be behind the levels of greenhouse gases coming from large scale organic farming operations

* New light shone on near earth asteroid



!!! Dendroecology suggests that not everything is caused by climate change

*** Bees with tiny transmitters on their backs show how disease harms the threatened insects

Pluto and Charon shine in false color



!!! Climate Change: A Risk Assessment - Warming 'worst case' must be considered

Suncor oil sands project aims to replace steam with radio waves

Alberta endorses calls for pan Canadian climate change action

*** Australian tracking station to get first new images of Pluto at 21:53 EDT

Why Pluto's Portraits Require Patience

*** In Drought, Puerto Rico Rations Water, Setting Off a Collection Frenzy

Scientists Show Rising Concern About Deep Sea Mining

!!! New From New Horizons: 5 Things We Just Found Out About Pluto and Charon

Namibia to Access Over N$580 Million to Fight Climate Change
Quoting 59. 69Viking:



Oh joy, reduced rain chances for Florida again.


It's classic NWS throwing a coin in the air to see what side it drops on because that is not what the models say infact it looks very wet and there is an increasing tropical prospect in the East Gulf beginning to get depicted. Whether this is organized or not doesn't matter as the pattern looks possibly excessively wet especially across C & SE FL.

NWS saying the ridge is coming back should be given demoted to washing the restrooms.

GFS thru day 10
NWS, Wilmington, NC

USING LINEAR MOTION EXTRAPOLATION ON RADAR...THE WEST VIRGINIA
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD REACH LUMBERTON AROUND 130 AM...AND
WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH BETWEEN 230-300 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT
STANDS NOW HAS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND WOULD SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF AN MCS. HOWEVER QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH MID-
LEVEL WARMING FROM THE GA/AL STORMS MIGHT STABILIZE/DRY THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND NAM SHOW THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HELPED IGNITE THE WEST VIRGINIA CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z...STILL PROVIDING SUPPORT ALOFT.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2015 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 18:08:25 N Lon : 108:49:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 978.8mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.8 degrees



Quoting 103. pablosyn:



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2015 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 18:08:25 N Lon : 108:49:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 978.8mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.8 degrees







looks like its starting around of RI the mb has drop from 980 too 973

EP, 05, 2015071500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1089W, 85, 973, HU
Extreme sea level fluctuations in the latest sea level measurements from the Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry / Sea Level Rise Under the graph click "Seasonal signals removed Text (CSV) (23kB)" for the Excel file. I don't know what to make of the measurements.
Quoting 104. Tazmanian:
looks like its starting around of RI the mb has drop from 980 too 973

EP, 05, 2015071500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1089W, 85, 973, HU
I think you are right.
Ground telemetry has now acquired the New Horizon's carrier wave.

Lock on symbols

The engineering packets are downloading on time...and as scheduled.

Wow !


Congratulations to the whole New Horizon team and NASA.

Yep. Lots of low latitude westerly fetch.
Quoting 38. Gearsts:


BBC Weather@bbcweather
Australian Bureau of Meteorology says Pacific typhoons may be setting up a very strong #ElNino in coming weeks.

Warmer SSTs surged northward along the Baja coast the past few days, but still too cool for Dolores to remain intact once it hits the 25 F isotherm. Upper pattern though is favorable for a moisture flux into the Southwest, maybe even into California.
Quoting 109. GeoffreyWPB:


ok new update winds are now 90kt mb is 970mb wish is down 3mb

new update

EP, 05, 2015071500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1089W, 90, 970, HU

old update

EP, 05, 2015071500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1089W, 85, 973, HU


Dolores is on its way to becoming the third major hurricane of the season.

Its deepening fast Taz.


dang...
40s and 50s widespread over the Arctic ice cap today. Couple that with a likely surge of warmer water coming in from both the Atlantic and Pacific below the ice...wouldn't be surprising to see a sudden massive, perhaps unprecedented melt over the next few weeks, especially if a windy cyclone gets in there.
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:



It's classic NWS throwing a coin in the air to see what side it drops on because that is not what the models say infact it looks very wet and there is an increasing tropical prospect in the East Gulf beginning to get depicted. Whether this is organized or not doesn't matter as the pattern looks possibly excessively wet especially across C & SE FL.

NWS saying the ridge is coming back should be given demoted to washing the restrooms.

GFS thru day 10



The NWS saying that was for NE Florida and Jacksonville this would also apply to the panhandle, and they also mention the heating and drying is only going to last a few days mainly due to sinking behind the trough that will sink into the I-4 corridor area by Friday into Saturday, increasing our rain chances and heavy rain coverage greatly. But they also mention model guidance brings in another trough southeastward into north FL next week as the one over us is expected to wash out by Monday, increasing rain chances again.

So I don't see any notable divergence from model guidance in the NWS discussion. Ruskin, already has us at 70% on Friday and Saturday at my location and 60% Sunday, and mention another trough to replace it later next week like model guidance shows.


In fact, the NWS forecasts already reflect a more realists trend than the GFS. The GFS has much higher rainfall in the panhandle than central FL, but this is not realistic since the largest rain coverage today was already south of this region, and was notably further south than the GFS outlooks today. The main trough focus will only sink south into Central FL by Fri-Sat, the NWS has higher rain chances down here overall than further north compared to the GFS.
Quoting 113. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dolores is on its way to becoming the third major hurricane of the season.


Now if we wait, we can get our major hurricane this year.
Quoting 114. Patrap:

Its deepening fast Taz.


Yes, but what about Dolores?
Quoting 95. CosmicEvents:


Sounds good.
Areas in severe drought in Broward generally experienced 1/3" today with moderate lightning as per the NWS forecast. Nothing like the 5" they seem to get in areas near Orlando every day, but we'll take what we received and hope for more tomorrow.


I know it seems that way but Orlando seldom gets 5" in a day and definitely not every day.
hey patrap...did u see my post about the weather movie take shelter? it was really good.
Dolores deepens
delightfully / Descending
downpours drench deeply.
Quoting 120. Bucsboltsfan:



I know it seems that way but Orlando seldom gets 5" in a day and definitely not every day.


For any given location in the Orlando area, that type of thunderstorm total from a single summertime type thunderstorm event is quite unusual. If I had to guess, that happens maybe once in 3-7 years in any given spot. We usually get one 2.5"-3.5" event per rainy season from my observations. This, of course, is excluding tropical disturbance/cyclone activity which has been strangely absent for the most part for a number of years now.
Driving from where I live near Apopka over to UCF I was shocked to see the big difference in water levels from my area to just 20 to 30 miles east of me. Drastically drier while areas west of I-4 has high water levels with deep green grasses compared to the stressed grasses over by UCF. Remarkable difference!
Striations in mammatus clouds this evening about an hour ago at my house even though the thunderstorms were at the AL/TN border at the time.

Looked very weird. Never seen anything like it before. Mom also said the sunset was a deep magenta.
Quoting 102. ncstorm:

NWS, Wilmington, NC

USING LINEAR MOTION EXTRAPOLATION ON RADAR...THE WEST VIRGINIA
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD REACH LUMBERTON AROUND 130 AM...AND
WILMINGTON AND MYRTLE BEACH BETWEEN 230-300 AM. THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT
STANDS NOW HAS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND WOULD SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF AN MCS. HOWEVER QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT HOW MUCH MID-
LEVEL WARMING FROM THE GA/AL STORMS MIGHT STABILIZE/DRY THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND NAM SHOW THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HELPED IGNITE THE WEST VIRGINIA CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 12Z...STILL PROVIDING SUPPORT ALOFT.


Looks like if that band holds together crossing into NC Yancey County could get quite wet, what with the moisture hitting the 6000 foot Black Mountains head on.
Quoting 123. HurrMichaelOrl:



For any given location in the Orlando area, that type of thunderstorm total from a single summertime type thunderstorm event is quite unusual. If I had to guess, that happens maybe once in 3-7 years in any given spot. We usually get one 2.5"-3.5" event per rainy season from my observations. This, of course, is excluding tropical disturbance/cyclone activity which has been strangely absent for the most part for a number of years now.


No one said Orlando gets 5" everyday infact it hasn't rained at my location since Saturday. Sitting at 7.23" for July and we look to really add to this number the rest of the week as 2" to 2.4" PWATS move in.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
913 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DWARF...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

* AT 908 PM EDT...THE MEDIA REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND COUNTY DISPATCH CONFIRMED WATER
RESCUES ARE IN PROGRESS.


THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DWARF.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HAZARD...EMMALENA...DIABLOCK...BEARVILLE...RITCHIE ...TALCUM...
ANCO...TINA...FISTY...JEFF...WISCOAL...BULAN...ELI C...CARRIE...
ARY...CORDIA AND DWARF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SALYERSVILLE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 806 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SALYERSVILLE AND SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO BURNING FORK AND MARSH
FORK. WATER RESCUES ARE IN PROGRESS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SALYERSVILLE...MASON...BROWNLOW...CISCO...GRAYFOX. ..PERLIE...
MARSHALLVILLE...BETHANNA...GYPSY...SWAMPTON...QUOD ...EVER...
ELSIE...PLUTARCH...KERNIE...FLAT FORK...BURNING FORK...CONLEY
STATION...CONLEY AND GAPVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
Quoting 121. WaterWitch11:

hey patrap...did u see my post about the weather movie take shelter? it was really good.


Indeed, saw that, ..very cool
#100 - Brian - you outdid yourself with this one. Pentaquarks? Bees with tiny transmitters? How awesome are these articles?!
#129 - Patrap - that song fits given the amount of flooding going on right now...great choice, btw
134. beell
Quoting 128. LAbonbon:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
913 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DWARF...





might not be too bad.
Quoting 134. beell:



might not be too bad.

Let's hope so.
SOI heading back down close to -20 on the 30 day average. Starting to see this value head into the 1997 range

I think of you when I find bee articles bonbon :)
Quoting 133. LAbonbon:

#129 - Patrap - that song fits given the amount of flooding going on right now...great choice, btw


My fav from that album.

On a side note, Son and his Band playing House of Blues Big Momma's Lounge July 24th Here in New Orleans on Decatur St. in the French Quarter.

We are watching the flooding situ and I'm actually listening to some LIVE EMG Channel VHF S & R loops.

Kentucky and others took a bad hit. Many communities affected. Sadly, as confirmed, 2 dead, 6 missing in Kentucky and them numbers are likely to go up.
Quoting 137. BaltimoreBrian:

I think of you when I find bee articles bonbon :)

Aw, thanks, Bri. I'm considering a blog post dedicated solely to the plight of the bees. Thoughts?

Here's the photo of a bee with a transmitter on its back. Had to zoom in a bit to see it. Pretty amazing.


Bee with tiny transmitter on her back.
Credit: Image courtesy of James Cook University (Source article)
Quoting 122. BaltimoreBrian:

Dolores deepens
delightfully / Descending
downpours drench deeply.


can't wait to see what u do with "e"

State of emergency declared in Kentucky floods; 2 dead, 6 missing, storms strike again


Doris Hardin talks on the phone as she takes a break from looking for her missing cats and other belongings from her trailer which was swept away after deadly flooding in Flat Gap, Ky., Tuesday, July 14, 2015. Flash floods in northern Johnson County outside of Paintsville destroyed homes and vehicles and residents were reported missing a day after the floods. (AP Photo/David Stephenson)
AL, 03, 2015071500, , BEST, 0, 431N, 585W, 40, 1004, EX
Wundergrounders in the path of thunderstorm lines ;)



Quoting 139. Patrap:



My fav from that album.

On a side note, Son and his Band playing House of Blues Big Momma's Lounge July 24th Here in New Orleans on Decatur St. in the French Quarter.

We are watching the flooding situ and I'm actually listening to some LIVE EMG Channel VHF S & R loops.

Kentucky and others took a bad hit. Many communities affected. Sadly, as confirmed, 2 dead, 6 missing in Kentucky and them numbers are likely to go up.

I've got it on replay now :)

Your son's in a band? Didn't know that. He's got to be good if he's playing the HoB.

Yeah, the extent of flooding caught me off guard this morning when I did my early morning weather check. Really the last couple of days-so much damage, which is bad enough, but the loss of life is just a tragedy.
146. beell


In Moristown, TN this evening. Plenty of weather today.
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

Wundergrounders in the path of thunderstorm lines ;)





Hmmm...62901 is like the one in the middle...he loves getting storms. I'm more like the girl in the front (2nd from the right) with the 'rutro' look :)
It simply amazes me how vast our solar system is. I mean it took New Horizons 3 years to go from Saturn to Uranus and another 3 years from Uranus to Neptune, while traveling at a speed of 31,000 mph, and it took a total of 9 years to get from Earth to Pluto and for this mission to complete. Congratulations to NASA on a mission accomplished. I think it is safe to say the whole world is anxiously awaiting images of Pluto. And just think what else is out there as New Horizons continues to thrust along.



Link
Quoting 133. LAbonbon:

#129 - Patrap - that song fits given the amount of flooding going on right now...great choice, btw
Scary... can't believe I recognised the song from those lines ... "Slip Sliding Away" ... Paul Simon ....
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

Wundergrounders in the path of thunderstorm lines ;)





Now this has to be for the arrival of The Beatles. Am I right?
Quoting 139. Patrap:



My fav from that album.

On a side note, Son and his Band playing House of Blues Big Momma's Lounge July 24th Here in New Orleans on Decatur St. in the French Quarter.

We are watching the flooding situ and I'm actually listening to some LIVE EMG Channel VHF S & R loops.

Kentucky and others took a bad hit. Many communities affected. Sadly, as confirmed, 2 dead, 6 missing in Kentucky and them numbers are likely to go up.
Looks like NC and parts of SC may also get into this mix later tonight .... :o(
The answer is in my blog, HurriHistory :)
@Baha - me, too! Such a great song.

Well, I've reached my limit for the day. Going to hit the hay. Hope all in harm's way are safe tonight.

Good night, all.
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

Wundergrounders in the path of thunderstorm lines ;)






That always applies to me, lol.
Looking at the map, that area of KY around Flat Gap must be super-susceptible to flash flooding ... the narrow valleys must be a nightmare in situations like this....
All models seem to be in agreement that starting tomorrow FL is going to be its wettest 2 to 3 week period since September 2014. Pattern looks very stormy with the Euro showing above average chances of tropical formation around FL for weeks 2 & 3 per JB from weatherbell. Very interesting pattern underway and one that favors another named system potentially.
Lots of energy and also the highest PWATS coming since last November when C FL got saw all those heavy rainfall totals. Well over 2" PWATs diving toward FL as a trough moves in and just stalls overhead. Euro even increases PWAT's to near 2.5" come next week. That's some moisture!

Seed is already planted. Pattern looks very promising for those that are dry in FL.

Heights are expected to quickly lower over the next 42hrs. Much lower pressure with no capping inversion to speak of over FL.

This hurricane near Bahia is strengthening the ridge over Texas while causing it to break across the SE US and drive in a trough.

Quoting 127. StormTrackerScott:



No one said Orlando gets 5" everyday infact it hasn't rained at my location since Saturday. Sitting at 7.23" for July and we look to really add to this number the rest of the week as 2" to 2.4" PWATS move in.


Let's hope so. My location is at ~2.6" for the month so far. It is quite common for an isolated area or two to get 4-7" during one of many different individual afternoons of heavy, persistent thunderstorm activity in an average summer. But these areas are small isolated areas, so for a given area on average the return period on that kind of rain from afternoon thunderstorm activity is measured in years, if not close to a decade (that is, again, my rough estimation based on observations and experience).
Quoting 140. LAbonbon:


Aw, thanks, Bri. I'm considering a blog post dedicated solely to the plight of the bees. Thoughts?

Here's the photo of a bee with a transmitter on its back. Had to zoom in a bit to see it. Pretty amazing.


Bee with tiny transmitter on her back.
Credit: Image courtesy of James Cook University (Source article)


I'd love to read it, and share it on the G+ Beekeeping community. If you don't already, consider giving www.honeybeesuite.com a lookover. My favorite beekeeping blog, and one of the best.
Dolores has taken on the appearance of an annular storm. If true, then it might be more persistent than expected when it hits the colder isotherms.
NHC might need to issue a special advisory soon. Dolores looks to be in the range of 105-110kt.

The strong NW winds along the Northern California coast the past few days have finally knocked down the SSTs back under 60 F at the Point Arena and Bodega buoys. The gales have restarted some pockets of upwelling, but also have more deeply mixed the surface layer. Expect the SSTs to bounce back once the pressure gradient eases.
Quoting 150. HurriHistory:


Now this has to be for the arrival of The Beatles. Am I right?

Children's puppet theater Alfred Eisenstadt
children in France watching a puppet show, the dragon just been killed supposedly
Exhausted, ebbing
Enrique equivocates
ending effetely
Quoting 167. BaltimoreBrian:

Exhausted, ebbing
Enrique equivocates
ending effetely


Eeeeek!!!
Quoting 148. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It simply amazes me how vast our solar system is. I mean it took New Horizons 3 years to go from Saturn to Uranus and another 3 years from Uranus to Neptune, while traveling at a speed of 31,000 mph, and it took a total of 9 years to get from Earth to Pluto and for this mission to complete. Congratulations to NASA on a mission accomplished. I think it is safe to say the whole world is anxiously awaiting images of Pluto. And just think what else is out there as New Horizons continues to thrust along.



Link


And the whole solar system is but an itty bitty speck of dust compared to the galaxy. And that galaxy is an itty bitty spec of dust in the local cluster. And so on and so on.

The probe is more coasting than thrusting. There's enough fuel left for one more target beyond Pluto, and two are within range of that fuel. So they have to make a choice which one they want to visit. After that, it's a cold lonely journey into the mostly empty space of the Kupier belt where the probe will continue to transmit images of the frigid empty darkness until it's plutonium based RTG is unable to power the transmitter (assuming nothing breaks down, the RTG should be able to provide transmission power for another 15 years or so).

It's not pointed at any stars, but if it were pointed at Proxima Centauri (our nearest stellar neighbor) it would reach it in about 78,000 years give or take.
Quoting 169. Xyrus2000:



And the whole solar system is but an itty bitty speck of dust compared to the galaxy. And that galaxy is an itty bitty spec of dust in the local cluster. And so on and so on.

The probe is more coasting than thrusting. There's enough fuel left for one more target beyond Pluto, and two are within range of that fuel. So they have to make a choice which one they want to visit. After that, it's a cold lonely journey into the mostly empty space of the Kupier belt where the probe will continue to transmit images of the frigid empty darkness until it's plutonium based RTG is unable to power the transmitter (assuming nothing breaks down, the RTG should be able to provide transmission power for another 15 years or so).

It's not pointed at any stars, but if it were pointed at Proxima Centauri (our nearest stellar neighbor) it would reach it in about 78,000 years give or take.


In other words, It took it 9 years to make it down to the end of the block.
Dolores is now a Category 4.

EP, 05, 2015071506, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1095W, 115, 944, HU,
I think today is the day in central/eastern SC. So much instability. Not that we need any more severe weather in my neck of the woods. So much damaging wind this summer.

Quoting 151. BahaHurican:

Looks like NC and parts of SC may also get into this mix later tonight .... :o(
Dolores went from a steady strengthener to a rapid one last night. Up to 130mph.

two afternoons in a row deluge with especially strong winds. the leafs on the trees are scrambled. e.cen fl.
Yet another EPAC Category 4.

forecast for the british open of golf @ St. Andrews? friday & saturday are forecast to have strong winds which should make it interesting. the pros who know how to keep the ball low will benefit.
Good morning over there. The strong tornado that has hit northern Italy near Venice last week, has been rated as a F4. A tornado of this violence is very rare in Europe:

Violent Tornado near Venice - Update
European Severe Storms Laboratory

On Wednesday 8 July 2015 late afternoon a violent tornado struck the Veneto region of northern Italy. One large villa (built in the 18th century) was completely destroyed, several houses suffered severe damage with a few walls collapsed, even more houses lost their complete roof, while many houses suffered significant or at least minor roof damage.

On 11, 12 and 13 July Alois M. Holzer from ESSL investigated this case together with Massimo Enrico Ferrario from the Meteorological Service of ARPA Veneto (preliminary report after the event), Rainer Kaltenberger from ZAMG and Alberto Gobbi from the association Meteonetwork.

The final report needs to be compiled, but a few key figures can already be given (updated on 14 July 2015 :

11.5 km - length of the tornado damage track
700 m - typical width
1000 m - maximum width of tornado damage track
F4 - maximum intensity on the Fujita Scale



The destroyed villa, mentioned in the report above.

Another video of the raging tornado.

Radarvideo of this day.

Sorry that I don't post much these days. I'm distracted by the financial "Medicane" (or better: "Debticane") with its destructive COC over Greece, but the outer bands affecting pretty much of whole Europe ;-)

Weatherwise the rollercoaster is going on: Another short but decent heatwave will visit Germany on Friday with temps in the upper 30ties C/ 90ties F ...

Have a nice day!
Quoting 161. HurrMichaelOrl:



Let's hope so. My location is at ~2.6" for the month so far. It is quite common for an isolated area or two to get 4-7" during one of many different individual afternoons of heavy, persistent thunderstorm activity in an average summer. But these areas are small isolated areas, so for a given area on average the return period on that kind of rain from afternoon thunderstorm activity is measured in years, if not close to a decade (that is, again, my rough estimation based on observations and experience).
i feel the same way... it seems in the past storms were more widespread and plentiful. now the storms are spotty , or tend to be. so i feel like i get a good rain about every 1 - 1.5 weeks but the soil here is so porous that i wish it would rain like in the past, nice shower pretty much everyday at around 4pm and more widespread lol. now its just an occasional pop up storm and you have to have luck and telepathic powers to get the storm over your area but you know according to governor skelator nothing at all out of whack with the enviroment.. matter of fact we dont even say global w*rming here in florida.
Good Morning all...

The general situation:



The line of storms that caused havoc over the Appalachians yesterday are headed across FL and in our general direction today. The upper trough is still hanging around the SE Bahamas and across the Greater Antilles ...

Looks like afternoon showers again today.
Not enough WOW's to describe the El-Nino so many models are depicting on the July update.

Euro




MDR just can't catch a break



CFSv2 is very tightly clustered just over 3C for November into December



Quoting 180. barbamz:



Sorry that I don't post much these days. I'm distracted by the financial "Medicane" (or better: "Debticane") with its destructive COC over Greece, but the outer bands affecting pretty much of whole Europe ;-)

Weatherwise the rollercoaster is going on: Another short but decent heatwave will visit Germany on Friday with temps in the upper 30ties C/ 90ties F ...

Have a nice day!
Lol, medicane. The greece thought they will get better offer after they rejected the conditions for the next loan. I completely understand the greece young people who didn t want to pay such a high price for the stupidity of their predecessors, but it seems they can t do anything in the end. Oh man, I surely am happy that I don t live in Greece, the effects from such a devastating force of nature will definitely persist for a long time.
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:

Not enough WOW's to describe the El-Nino so many models are depicting on the July update.

Euro




MDR just can't catch a break



CFSv2 is very tightly clustered just over 3C for November into December





Wow to the nth Power lol.

In the 25 years I've lived at my house I have never seen the landscape as dry as it is now well into the summer. I think the rain stays away east of US1. I expect changes this week however; hopefully.
The current SST off the Southwest coast of California are absolutely astounding. Widespread 20C and higher all over the place.  These are good for a positive 3 to 5 degrees Celsius anomalies over a very wide area.   I've seen that 26C isotherm make it a 1/3 of the way up the Baja before dropping off in past  years.  Being that we are still a good two months away for maximum potential SST temperatures in that area wonder what the final max SST will look like.  There is a large area at 30N currently at 22-23C SST.  It only needs 3C more to hit that 25-26C threshold and everything south of that would be even warmer.  Kinda nutty.







looks like are hurricane has peaked

EP, 05, 2015071512, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1099W, 115, 946, HU
Looks like Dolores isn't going to be a fish after all, forecast to make a direct hit on Isla Socorro. I couldn't imagine going through a major hurricane on a small isolated island like that!



Link

Link

Why post this when it's from 2006? The data have been adjusted upwards numerous times. In addition, there have been several very hot summers since then - 2006, 2010, 2011, and 2012 all come to mind. The so-called warming hole was just an artifact of the data due to the aggregation of data collected from various, dissimilar means and methods. There might still be a little less warming than other regions, but there is no "warming hole" in the American Midwest.

Quoting 31. beell:

What Does the Lack of Midwest
Warming over the Past 30 Years Mean?

Christopher J. Anderson
Assistant Director
ISU Climate Science Initiative-2006




193. JRRP
2015

2014

velocity potential
Good Morning. Ironically, Delores is more symmetrical on the Eastern quad, facing the coast, than on the Western quad but a good looking storm nonetheless. The current track does not take it back towards the coast; that is a good thing:

HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

Dolores has stopped strengthening for the moment, with some warming
of the convective tops noted within the northern semicircle since
the last advisory. Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and
SAB fell to 5.5, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt
based on the CI numbers. Low vertical wind shear and very warm
ocean waters should support additional strengthening during the next
12-24 hours, and the official forecast keeps Dolores as a category 4
hurricane during this period.
Weakening is expected after 24 hours,
predominantly due to gradually cooler waters and a more stable
environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the
guidance during the first 48 hours and then close to the IVCN
consensus thereafter. As will be discussed below, Dolores's
forecast track has been shifting southward, which would keep the
cyclone over warmer water and possibly result in slower or delayed
weakening.


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Some of the June Gloom is hanging on, nice cool morning, 64.8 here(7:57PDT), photo will change
Hey guys

Finally the whole Atlantic Basin has now warmed and now + anomalies









Well it's only late by what 1 month and 15 days
Article saying that el nino not a sure thing to bring water to California

Link

Parent site has interesting articles and links

Link
Quoting 197. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys

Finally the whole Atlantic Basin has now warmed and now + anomalies









Well it's only late by what 1 month and 15 days
Hey WKC. Hey do you think that complex in the Midwest can go on the east coast and become the next named storm. I do. I remember that someone was saying something like that.
This is nuts -
Extreme weather hits Papua,
11 dead


Speaking to The Jakarta Post in a phone interview on Tuesday, Lanny Jaya regional administration secretary Christian Siholait said extremely cold temperatures along with hail had occurred in Ku-
yawage, Goa Baliem and West Wano districts from July 3 to 5.

“During the three days, hail continuously fell from morning until evening. At the same time, local residents experienced extreme cold weather as the air temperature dropped to minus 2 degrees Celsius,” he said. ..........................................
Like the three isolated districts in Lanny Jaya, the Agandugume district is located between 2,300 and 2,500 meters above sea level and can only be accessed with small aircraft. The district is situated just below the 4,884-meter Puncak Jaya mountain, one of the world’s seven tallest summits. -



See more at: Link
Hello all,

I woke up this morning to this.
Far out, but something to watch.
In case we've forgotten about these in the excitement of Dolores' RI...



The other EPAC storm



Iune's remnants



Halola



Nanka
Well it's only late by what 1 month and 15 days

actually it's not late......seeing that we're talking about anomalies......we would expect average......considering conditions such as el nino.....one could even say we could expect below average.......but what do we have.....above average.......



nahhh...the atlantic is dead guys...don't get your hopes up ...well..it's dead until we get another storm that is
Quoting 202. ncstorm:

Hello all,


??? Something in the Mid Atlantic.
Thanks for the reminder on Nangka; good news for Japan as the forecast is for a Cat 1 at landfall:


OK, looks like we've got a Tropical Storm hitting the Texas coast on July 30th. Get ready Texas!
Will note (as to Nangka) that it is good news in terms of wind damage issues but potentially really bad news in terms of flooding and landslides.  If the trajectory below holds true; then most of Japan is going to be on the dirty/wet side of the rain for 48 hours:
Quoting 209. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the reminder on Nangka; good news for Japan as the forecast is for a Cat 1 at landfall:




Chan-hom and Nangka could've been a lot worse than they were so thank God for that
Quoting 212. JrWeathermanFL:



Chan-hom and Nangka could've been a lot worse than they were so thank God for that


True; now we have to see however how much rain Nangka dumps on Japan; not the wettest storm at the moment so hopefully not too much flooding as especially if the storm picks up speed on the way through.............
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

Wundergrounders in the path of thunderstorm lines ;)





I think the girl in the front with her mouth open is screaming for Ringo instead of John, Paul or George.
rare to see a typhoon going through Japan with a nnw trajestory. hopefully the forecast changes it to curve out to sea.
Here is the current forecast Nangka in terms of speed and intensity; based on the weakening at landfall, it could fall apart fairly quickly as the storm or remnants stream off just to the West of the Japan:


WDPN33 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 49//
RMKS//
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY NANGKA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES JAPAN DUE TO MODERATE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF MAINLAND JAPAN JUST BEFORE TAU 36 WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION.
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER WATER JUST BEFORE TAU 48
WHERE HIGH VWS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 CELSIUS WILL
FURTHER ERODE THE CYCLONES STRUCTURE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY NANGKA WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST TWO WARNING CYCLES, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Experts baffled by freak downpour in Norway
Link
Looks like Socorro Island may take a direct hit. Current conditions are thunderstorm, 81 F, NNE wind 50 mph, gusts to 61.
Quoting 203. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I woke up this morning to this.
Southerly surge in the past few hours has replaced the strong NWrlies along the California coast. Buoy temps had fallen, but still elevated above normal.
12z operational GFS is picking on that disturbance that the Navgem ensembles were hinting at as well..

Weak though



Quoting 210. HurriHistory:


OK, looks like we've got a Tropical Storm hitting the Texas coast on July 30th. Get ready Texas!

Sadly we need the rain again, ground cracking.
Quoting 161. HurrMichaelOrl:



Let's hope so. My location is at ~2.6" for the month so far. It is quite common for an isolated area or two to get 4-7" during one of many different individual afternoons of heavy, persistent thunderstorm activity in an average summer. But these areas are small isolated areas, so for a given area on average the return period on that kind of rain from afternoon thunderstorm activity is measured in years, if not close to a decade (that is, again, my rough estimation based on observations and experience).

I've had a rain gauge at my location for 10 years, we've had several 4-7 inch days in the last 10 years, and although we went 3 years without one, there was one year where we had 3 in one year.

The chance of seeing 4-7 inches in one day increases significantly towards the gulf coast especially from south Louisiana all the way east along the coast and down into SW Florida, this also applies for east and southeast Florida. The farther north and inland you go, the probability decreases. Given this, we live in a high probability zone for an average return period for a 4-7 inch day event, and it's more common than every 10 years.

But, I agree, let's be really liberal and say it happens once a year for a given location around here, even if that's true, to see it multiple times is unlikely.

But 2-3 inch thunderstorm days are relatively common here, I see several of them at my rain gauge every summer on average, although it seems a lot easier to get 2 inches here than 3 from one thunderstorm event, and that makes sense given that a thunderstorm cell will often either weaken or move on elsewhere.
That storm will switch between Texas to Maine before a finale solution.
Nearly 200,000 dead Alpacas, agriculture collapsed and old and young in danger from extreme cold Peru
Link
Quoting 201. Climate175:


summer weather!
Quoting 224. washingtonian115:

That storm will switch between Texas to Maine before a finale solution.
As the model routine always does before the real deal.


wow!!
Quoting 223. Jedkins01:


I've had a rain gauge at my location for 10 years, we've had several 4-7 inch days in the last 10 years, and although we went 3 years without one, there was one year where we had 3 in one year.

The chance of seeing 4-7 inches in one day increases significantly towards the gulf coast especially from south Louisiana all the way east along the coast and down into SW Florida, this also applies for east and southeast Florida. The farther north and inland you go, the probability decreases. Given this, we live in a high probability zone for an average return period for a 4-7 inch day event, and it's more common than every 10 years.

But, I agree, let's be really liberal and say it happens once a year for a given location around here, even if that's true, to see it multiple times is unlikely.

But 2-3 inch thunderstorm days are relatively common here, I see several of them at my rain gauge every summer on average, although it seems a lot easier to get 2 inches here than 3 from one thunderstorm event, and that makes sense given that a thunderstorm cell will often either weaken or move on elsewhere.


I agree with you Jedkins. I think the probability for instance, in the Orlando area, is much lower than areas near the west coast. Such high rainfall totals also seem to be more common up toward deltona, out toward Apopka and north of there. For my area, I would say the return period is at least 3-7 years for 4-7" rainfall totals. Interestingly, I seem to recall a 4" single day rainfall total here early this year (Jan-Mar). We probably actually get two 2-3" rainfall events from single day thunderstorm activity within the rainy season per year here. Like you said, I have also noticed closer to 2" is more typical than in the 3" range.

It looks like the storms are robust today and on the march toward the Orlando area. It is breezy and the air feels moist.
Must be one cold atmosphere above Nangka.  She's sitting over 20-21C SST and maintaining.  Impressive.

Also seems to be a bit better organized vs. 12 to 6 hours ago.




Well now I'm a bit confused.

Levis site has SST around 26-27?



But NOAAs SST layer within satellite loops has it this area between 20-22C with a rather sharp gradient?
Quoting 230. hurricanes2018:



wow!!
The euro was showing a decent wave.Don't know if it dropped it.
Based on this shot from about 2 hours ago, looks to me like the curvature of the approaching coast of Japan might be helping out the circulation pattern; getting a nice burst of convection at the core (per the post below) which is trying to wrap around:

Quoting 227. hurricanes2018:

summer weather!

Does that show 108F for Tallahassee? Geez.
Quoting 236. HurrMichaelOrl:


Does that show 108F for Tallahassee? Geez.

Hottest May, June, July so far that I have experienced in Tallahassee since I have lived here (2001) and just spoke to an old timer here since 1962; hottest summer so far he has seen up here/can remember.
As I discovered several weeks ago, those SST overlays are not being updated currently. Disregard them.
Quoting 232. ILwthrfan:

Must be one cold atmosphere above Nangka.  She's sitting over 20-21C SST and maintaining.  Impressive.

Also seems to be a bit better organized vs. 12 to 6 hours ago.




Well now I'm a bit confused.

Levis site has SST around 26-27?



But NOAAs SST layer within satellite loops has it this area between 20-22C with a rather sharp gradient?

Onshore flow + high tide + 2 inch per hour rainfall rates = very bad morning at the Jersey Shore









Mayors of major cities, California governor to attend Vatican conference on climate change
Catholic World News - July 15, 2015
Bishop Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, the chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, took part in a July 15 press conference on an upcoming Vatican workshop on “Modern Slavery and Climate Change: the Commitment of the Cities” (July 21) and symposium on “Prosperity, People, and Planet: Achieving Sustainable Development in Our Cities.” ...
The list of participants includes over 50 mayors from some of the world’s major cities, including Rome, Florence, Milan, Tehran, Sao Paolo, Mexico City, Johannesburg, Paris, and Madrid, as well as a handful of other officials such as Governor Jerry Brown of California.
Mayors from the United States who will attend include the majors of Birmingham, Boston, Boulder, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Portland, San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle.
WOW! And you wonder why the models forecasting the Strongest El-Nino EVER! We are already seeing a rapidly developing Kelvin Wave as deep as nearly 150m. Values went from negative to positive 3C in just 2 weeks and still growing very fast. This kelvin Wave is getting going as a result of record Westerly wind anomalies and a record breaking MJO

Philip Klotzbach %u200F@philklotzbach 26m26 minutes ago
Since June 1, westerly winds have been stronger in the Central Pacific than any year on record (since 1979). #ElNino


Just a remarkable increase in a matter of days. This will likely we one of the strongest Kelvin Waves we've ever seen in about a 6 to 8 weeks.

WOW! And you wonder why the models forecasting the Strongest El-Nino EVER! We are already seeing a rapidly developing Kelvin Wave as deep as nearly 150m. Values went from negative to positive 3C in just 2 weeks and still growing very fast. This kelvin Wave is getting going as a result of record Westerly wind anomalies and a record breaking MJO

did you know the kelvin wave in 2009 was deeper
245. 882MB
Quoting 221. ncstorm:

12z operational GFS is picking on that disturbance that the Navgem ensembles were hinting at as well..

Weak though






I believe is the tropical wave, SW of the Cape Verde Islands, that the 2 models are referring too.


Quoting 244. ricderr:

WOW! And you wonder why the models forecasting the Strongest El-Nino EVER! We are already seeing a rapidly developing Kelvin Wave as deep as nearly 150m. Values went from negative to positive 3C in just 2 weeks and still growing very fast. This kelvin Wave is getting going as a result of record Westerly wind anomalies and a record breaking MJO

did you know the kelvin wave in 2009 was deeper


Doesn't matter there are rapid increases happening as a result of this WWB @ around 150m and it will be interesting to see how high these anomalies go the next several weeks. No question at all that we are on our way to 1982/1997 levels.
Winds probably gusting to 35mph here in Winter Park and steady 20-25. I hope we don't shoot the gap between these initial storms, as they will be the strongest we likely get (or don't) today.
Iraq declares Thursday an official holiday due to heat wave
Associated Press, 3 hours ago
BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq's government has announced that Thursday will be an official holiday due to a scorching heatwave.
In a brief statement Wednesday, the Iraqi Cabinet said temperatures already have exceeded 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in some provinces.
Meteorological officials warned of a heat wave in central and southern Iraq starting Wednesday through Friday. The heat wave comes as Muslims are practicing dawn-to-dusk fasting during the holy month of Ramadan.
Such heatwaves in Iraq add to the population's hardships as the country suffers from a lack of electricity. To cope with high temperatures, Iraqis either stay indoors or swim in rivers. In some public places, showers are set up for those who want to cool down.
Quoting 250. HurrMichaelOrl:

Winds probably gusting to 35mph here in Winter Park and steady 20-25. I hope we don't shoot the gap between these initial storms, as they will be the strongest we likely get (or don't) today.


No rain at the office. A little at my house though. Seem to be in a gap across the northside of Orlando
Quoting 254. StormTrackerScott:



No rain at the office. A little at my house though. Seem to be in a gap across the northside of Orlando


C'mon Scott. Bring some rain down to me - east of US1. I am meeting my college kid in Orlando tomorrow and going to Hollywood Studios in the morning. Please hold up on the rain until the afternoon.
We shot the rain gap here, despite massive, heavy thunderstorms in all directions. Boy, do I feel like a broken record. Going to go out and water.

12z
Quoting 255. rmbjoe1954:



C'mon Scott. Bring some rain down to me - east of US1. I am meeting my college kid in Orlando tomorrow and going to Hollywood Studios in the morning. Please hold up on the rain until the afternoon.


Rain? What rain?
Quoting 256. HurrMichaelOrl:

We shot the rain gap here, despite massive, heavy thunderstorms in all directions. Boy, do I feel like a broken record. Going to go out and water.


I don’t understand why the HRRR model continues to show dry conditions for Tampa going into tomorrow morning. There is a strong line of storms progressing southward through the state that shows no signs of weakening. It’s already making its way into the Spring Hill area. Something weird going on with the models lately.
... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for east central Palm Beach County until 315
PM EDT...

* at 248 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Greenacres... or near Lake Worth... moving
east at 15 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Wellington... Lake Worth... Riviera Beach... Palm
Beach... Greenacres... Royal Palm Beach... Palm Springs... Lantana...
Atlantis... Haverhill... Cloud Lake... gun Club Estates... Palm Beach
International Airport... lake Belvedere Estates... Golden Lakes...
Royal Palm estates... Port of Palm Beach... downtown West Palm Beach
and schall Circle.
Interesting from TWC on Claudette:

ATLANTIC
The remnant low-level circulation of the borderline-but-officially-tropical storm (Claudette) is now near the southeast Canadian Maritimes with just some showers and with an area of clouds not very distinguishable on satellite imagery from a bunch of others.

While the tropics per se in the Atlantic remain quite devoid of thunderstorms, at a higher latitude the atmosphere & NHC snuck in another one, with now there already having been the C storm. This is only the third time in the past decade (2006-2015) that has occurred so early.

For a seasonal forecast to verify which predicted only seven tropical/subtropical storms, there'd need to be only four more through the entire remainder of the season.

Quoting 256. HurrMichaelOrl:

We shot the rain gap here, despite massive, heavy thunderstorms in all directions. Boy, do I feel like a broken record. Going to go out and water.

We also shot the rain gap too Michael. Happens all the time here lately. Haven't had a good rain in 8 days and counting now.
Wow.... a slow day in da blog....
Afternoon all.
Quoting 221. ncstorm:

12z operational GFS is picking on that disturbance that the Navgem ensembles were hinting at as well..

Weak though




Don't need it to be strong, just wet enough to dampen the ECar on its way through ... then it can fizzle out. NOT interested in any kinda storm up in here right now ...
what happened to the convection that was supposed to happen in the western carib?....seems like there is a wall just to the west of Jamaica stopping every wave
Quoting 241. wxgeek723:

Onshore flow + high tide + 2 inch per hour rainfall rates = very bad morning at the Jersey Shore


Oh man ... the guy in the black car in the second photo must be freaked right out! .... That is one hell of a nice car to get that wet ....
Just watching the radar and the storms just go poof as they come into the Sanford area. The storms were firing all day to the north and west and those are gone now. But then storms fire up south and east of here. Just can't seem to catch a break from all this dry hot weather. Going on day 8 now without a good rain. May need to turn on the lawn sprinklers
Quoting 262. GeoffreyWPB:

... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for east central Palm Beach County until 315
PM EDT...

* at 248 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Greenacres... or near Lake Worth... moving
east at 15 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Wellington... Lake Worth... Riviera Beach... Palm
Beach... Greenacres... Royal Palm Beach... Palm Springs... Lantana...
Atlantis... Haverhill... Cloud Lake... gun Club Estates... Palm Beach
International Airport... lake Belvedere Estates... Golden Lakes...
Royal Palm estates... Port of Palm Beach... downtown West Palm Beach
and schall Circle.
This sounds like August ... just in time for back to school shopping for Bahamians. ... No wonder we love the mall in the afternoon ....
Quoting 267. 19N81W:

what happened to the convection that was supposed to happen in the western carib?....seems like there is a wall just to the west of Jamaica stopping every wave
Sure looked like you guys were going to get washed out yesterday! What happened to all that cloud cover between here and Honduras?
Quoting 241. wxgeek723:

Onshore flow + high tide + 2 inch per hour rainfall rates = very bad morning at the Jersey Shore












Seems to me I remember a weather system like that. Took like 3 tide cycles for it all to run off. Early 1970's? I remember wearing a 1 piece bathing suit and playing in the water in the street with my friends (Ventnor Heights, a block away from the back bay.) Fortunately the sand sharks stayed off the streets; we could have, I dunno, lost a toe or something.
Quoting 231. HurrMichaelOrl:



I agree with you Jedkins. I think the probability for instance, in the Orlando area, is much lower than areas near the west coast. Such high rainfall totals also seem to be more common up toward deltona, out toward Apopka and north of there. For my area, I would say the return period is at least 3-7 years for 4-7" rainfall totals. Interestingly, I seem to recall a 4" single day rainfall total here early this year (Jan-Mar). We probably actually get two 2-3" rainfall events from single day thunderstorm activity within the rainy season per year here. Like you said, I have also noticed closer to 2" is more typical than in the 3" range.

It looks like the storms are robust today and on the march toward the Orlando area. It is breezy and the air feels moist.



Yeah I agree, if you think about it, it makes sense because onshore flow events over a warm ocean are prone to generating major rain events, that can occur here in the west coast of FL both from tropical cyclones and from tropical waves, fronts, and other forms of low pressure. Also, typically when the sea breezes collide on either the east coast of west coast, the thunderstorm cells can persist longer than inland. For those reasons, I agree on the return period there vs. here, makes sense to me.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 260. tampabaymatt:



I don’t understand why the HRRR model continues to show dry conditions for Tampa going into tomorrow morning. There is a strong line of storms progressing southward through the state that shows no signs of weakening. It’s already making its way into the Spring Hill area. Something weird going on with the models lately.



Model guidance has really been under expecting this event. Not sure why but the reason for what you're describing is because the models have had a north bias on the trough position and the energy. Model guidance had really high pops in the panhandle and even higher into Georgia with widespread heavy totals as of last night, but the trough position is further south today than the models show.

Now, I do still expect that line to weaken some because the trough axis of best lift and convergence is still to the north, but it wasn't even expected to reach Citrus and Levy counties, much less Hernando and Pasco. Model guidance does bring the trough further south into the weekend and brings much more rain coverage, but still I suspect considering it's already been more active than guidance, and with the troughing being already ahead of most models, I suspect that we'll see more than expected. Not a horrible flood event, just good rain and thunderstorm coverage with localized flooding possible in some spots where cells may train due to fast flow.

12z GFS


12z CMC