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A Busy Northern Hemisphere: Five Named Systems in the Atlantic and Pacific

By: Bob Henson 3:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2015

The “string of pearls” effect continued on Tuesday morning over the Northern Hemisphere, with an arc of tropical cyclones extending from south of Japan to east of the United States. According to Eric Blake (National Hurricane Center) and Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University), this is the first year on record with so many named systems to date for the Atlantic, Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific combined: a total of 11 as of Monday, July 13, with the previous record of 10 occuring in 2012.


Figure 1. A multispectral (RGB) image of Tropical Storm Claudette, from 9:45 am EDT Tuesday, reveals the highly offset nature of the system. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

A weakening Claudette spins into the northwest Atlantic
Tropical Storm Claudette, which formed quickly on Monday, is losing its tropical characteristics just about as quickly today. As of 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, Claudette was located about 250 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, with peak sustained winds down to 40 mph, the minimal strength for tropical-storm status. High wind shear (more than 35 mph) is taking its toll on Claudette, with the storm’s paltry convection shoved well northeast of the circulation. Claudette has been riding the north edge of the Gulf Stream, where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have been 1 – 2°C above average. However, the system is quickly moving toward much cooler waters, and NHC is predicting that Claudette will become post-tropical by Tuesday night.

Across the deep Atlantic tropics and the Caribbean, conditions remain very unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. SSTs are close to 1°C below average, and El Niño is contributing to high values of deep-layer wind shear (generally above 30 knots, with widespread pockets of greater than 50 knots). At least for the time being, whatever systems manage to claw their way into existence in the Atlantic are most likely to form in the subtropics, north of at least 20°N.


Figure 2. Wind shear is producing hostile conditions for tropical storm development over much of the Atlantic south of 30°N. Image credit: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin.

Nangka churns its way toward Japan
A potent Typhoon Nangka continues to organize as it moves north-northwest at about 8 mph across the Northwest Pacific toward Japan. As of 1200 GMT (8:00 am EDT) on Tuesday, Nangka was located about 800 miles south-southwest of Tokyo, with sustained winds of 105 mph. Wind shear is low along Nangka’s immediate path (5 -10 knots) and SSTs above 26°C (79°F) support strengthening. An unusual double-eyewall structure developed on Tuesday local time as part of an eyewall intensification process, which delayed further strengthening in spite of the otherwise favorable conditions. In addition, the ridge north of Nangka that’s keeping it from moving northeast is also feeding dry air into the system, tamping down on its intensification rate. This strengthening ridge should cause Nangka to bend toward the northwest as it approaches Japan. Though the ECMWF model keeps Nangka stronger than the GFS, both models consistently point toward a likely landfall in or near Japan’s large western islands of Kyushu and Shikoku, with impacts possibly extending east toward Honshu and the large cities of Kyoto, Kobe, and Osaka. As with the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, most typhoons approaching Japan are moving toward the northeast. The currently projected motion toward the north-northwest, more perpendicular to Japan’s southern coastlines, would bolster Nangka’s destructive power, much as Hurricane Sandy’s unusual approach from the southeast in 2012 increased the damage it wreaked on New York and New Jersey.


Figure 3. Infrared imagery from the Himawari-8 satellite revealed an unusually well-defined double eyewall structure in Typhoon Nangka on Tuesday local time, with strong subsidence on either side of the inner and outer eyewalls and a resulting “moat” (grey semicircle) evident between the two. This image was collected at 1300 GMT on July 13. Image credit: SSEC/University of Wisconsin.

Elsewhere in the Pacific
In the Northwest Pacific, Typhoon Halola continues a gradual strengthening, with peak winds of close to 100 mph as of 1200 GMT Tuesday. Halola was located about 475 nautical miles east-southeast of Wake Island, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Halola will pass just south of Wake Island on Thursday local time as a strong Category 2 typhoon. Such a trajectory would place the island in the dangerous right eyewall of the typhoon. The last major hurricane to strike Wake Island was Ioke, which brought sustained winds estimated at 155 mph and a minimum central pressure measured at 934 mb on August 31, 2006.

In the Eastern Pacific, we have two active named storms, neither of which is expected to hit land: Tropical Storm Enrique and Hurricane Dolores. Now packing sustained winds of 85 mph, Dolores is predicted to hit a peak intensity of at least Category 3 strength by Thursday as it gradually moves away from the Mexican coastline. Meanwhile, Enrique will struggle to maintain itself as a minimal tropical storm over the next couple of days, with current sustained winds at 45 mph and gradual weakening predicted.

I’ll have an update later today on this week's multiday severe weather episode across the Midwest and mid-Atlantic.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

First! Lol in all seriousness though a nice wave has come off Africa.To bad it'll be just like the others so far this season.Destroyed by both wind shear or dry air while having occasional flare ups.
Thanks Dr. Henson!
Thank You Mr. Henson; this current Pacific activity certainly qualifies as quite the storm "cluster". Good thing that Delores is not a threat to land as it heads towards major storm category:


That is a lot of heat being transferred in the NoPac..
Will also note that notwithstanding the hostile environment (for July) that awaits the African waves in the Central Atlantic, the wave train is pretty healthy regardless for this time of the year (due to decent rains in the Sahel so far):
In case any of you missed it. Check out this video from Hutchinson, Kansas yesterday of an incredibly photogenic supercell and tornado.






Quoting 5. weathermanwannabe:

Will also note that notwithstanding the hostile environment (for July) that awaits the African waves in the Central Atlantic, the wave train is pretty healthy regardless for this time of the year (due to decent rains in the Sahel so far):

GFS shows nothing all the way up to the end of July.
Update on the Alaska fire situation from a few blogs back. The fire season is now about a month ahead of the record breaking 2004 year. Bad news.



h/t to R. Thoman for the graph.
Thanks Mr. Henson, amazing number of storms at one time even with the Atlantic being so quiet...



east coast need to be watch
Quoting 7. wunderweatherman123:

GFS shows nothing all the way up to the end of July.


As should be the case this time of the year; if this type of wave activity continues into late-August/early-Sept, I would not count out a few Cape Verde tropical storms when the Atlantic hits the lower-shear/higher sst peak period window. I am most curious to see if we continue to see a few struggling tropical storms across the Atlantic (like the last several seasons) with no hurricanes forming from the disturbances until after they get into the Caribbean or go North towards the Bahamas.
Pacman about to eat Virginia..

Quoting 10. hurricanes2018:




east coast need to be watch


Ha! When was the last time a tropical storm formed off the coast of the DelMarVa area?
Quoting 12. ncstorm:

Pacman about to eat Virginia..




I suppose that's preferable to already having eaten Tennessee and Kentucky. ;)
Quoting 5. weathermanwannabe:

Will also note that notwithstanding the hostile environment (for July) that awaits the African waves in the Central Atlantic, the wave train is pretty healthy regardless for this time of the year (due to decent rains in the Sahel so far):



They're being aided by upward motion in association with upward motion from the MJO:



The favourable upward motion from the MJO is predicted to become stronger across the Altlantic over the next few days or so which could help aid the tropical wave currently rolling off Africa.

I'd definitely look to the east coast for tropical cyclone development in the 5-7 days.
Love the very obvious texas heat bubble parked over the state. its really hot!

Quoting 14. LongIslandBeaches:



I suppose that's preferable to already having eaten Tennessee and Kentucky. ;)
Boston snow pile is finally gone



Quoting 3. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson; this current Pacific activity certainly qualifies as quite the storm "cluster". Good thing that Delores is not a threat to land as it heads towards major storm category:




Should be good for California monsoons. Hopefully I can turn off the sprinklers a few days.
Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:



As should be the case this time of the year; if this type of wave activity continues into late-August/early-Sept, I would not count out a few Cape Verde tropical storms when the Atlantic hits the lower-shear/higher sst peak period window. I am most curious to see if we continue to see a few struggling tropical storms across the Atlantic (like the last several seasons) with no hurricanes forming from the disturbances until after they get into the Caribbean or go North towards the Bahamas.
what's more concering is the low instability that's been plauging the atlantic ever since 2012. forget el nino. that has been a bigger problem. pretty much what killed the 2013 season which had enso neutral the entire peak of the season. if instability is below average, expect nothing from the deep tropics as the sinking air pretty much collapses any sort of low pressure trying to form
20. JRRP

Quoting 9. Frasersgrove:

Thanks Mr. Henson, amazing number of storms at one time even with the Atlantic being so quiet...
Everyone keeps on singing the same tune " oh the atlantic is so quiet, it s so boring"...well the average ACE for the Atlantic basin at this time of year is 3, while the current ACE is over 4 so it looks more like hyperactive season than a quiet one so far.
https://twitter.com/iass_potsdam/status/62094686754 3617537
Quoting 17. wxgeek723:

Boston snow pile is finally gone






Looks like all of that water drained into and flooded the lot nearby. I wonder how they are going to get rid of all of that water.
Current Conditions (Station reported 4 seconds ago)
92.2 °F
Feels Like 107.4 °F
9.0 mph, Wind from WNW
Gusts 9.0 mph
Dew Point: 78 °F
Humidity: 63%

Feels Like 107.4 °F

Because WEATHER
Quoting 24. tampabaymatt:



Looks like all of that water drained into and flooded the lot nearby. I wonder how they are going to get rid of all of that water.


Weren't there some on here saying the snow pile would last until next winter? Didn't seem to make it even halfway through July. (Nevermind how impressive it is for a pile of snow to last halfway into July!)
Quoting 26. LongIslandBeaches:



Weren't there some on here saying the snow pile would last until next winter? Didn't seem to make it even halfway through July. (Nevermind how impressive it is for a pile of snow to last halfway into July!)


I think a few people thought it had a puncher's chance of making it through the summer given the lack of rain Boston has received, but it seemed unlikely once the bulk of it melted and the entire pile lost that insulating effect from having snow piled on more snow. What a mess.
Reposted from previous blog:


Quoting 412. Neapolitan:


....
But let me give you Dr. Masters' probable take on this: the denialist author of the conference paper (not study) in question has seriously overstated her findings in regards to an "ice age". Any solar minimum will be barely noticeable in the long-term rise of the planet's surface temperature. Period.



Normally, I have the greatest respect for what you say, but here I think there is a lot of assumption in play. If you read the article in Wired (http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-07/13/mi ni-ice-age-earth-sunspots) linked to a few comments back, it says that the authors calculated that the sunspot minimum would drop to the lowest level since the mini ice age due to two separate 11 year sunspot cycles coinciding at a minimum for the first time in over 300 years.

"... new research suggests a second force -- or "wave" -- is at play. Two waves, operating at different layers in the Sun's interior, are now believed to drive solar activity. When these waves are desynchronised, temperatures on Earth fall.Both waves work on 11 year cycles and fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. When the waves stay in phase we see high levels of solar activity such as sunspots, and when out of phase we see low activity."

The paper states (as quoted by Science Daily) that " When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago." That is not remotely the same as saying we will have the same atmospheric condition as as existed during the Maunder Minimum, just that sunspot activity is predicted to be the same. Calling the authors 'deniers' based on that is pretty sloppy. In no way is this stating that rising CO2 levels caused by human activity does not result in rising temperature.
Is this because of the El nino?
"There is the potential for another disturbance to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast late this week," Kottlowski said."
Quoting 27. tampabaymatt:



I think a few people thought it had a puncher's chance of making it through the summer given the lack of rain Boston has received, but it seemed unlikely once the bulk of it melted and the entire pile lost that insulating effect from having snow piled on more snow. What a mess.


It has been stated before that the snow pile lasts in a normal year into the first week of June. So lasting into July this year (given the totally insane amount of snow that fell) seems a reasonable outcome. It was also insanely cold in Boston for February, and well below normal for March, so a lot of what would normally melt during the late winter, did not melt this year.

IF you built a big enough pile snow, it might last through the summer. To put things in perspective, Mount Washington frequently builds a drift in Tuckerman Ravine to over 80 feet deep each winter and the last of that usually melts out in July. That is in a much colder location on a north facing slope (although a lot wetter than downtown Boston) and much less compact (no 20 ton bulldozers driving around on it for two months). Still, it shows that the trash mixed in with the pile did a decent job of insulating the snow.
Nice wave.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES FOR A LARGE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT FROM 7PM TO MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SULLIGENT...BIRMINGHAM...SYLACAUGA...AND
LAFAYETTE ARE INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH A LESSER THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL.

Quoting 28. OviedoWatcher:

Reposted from previous blog:


Quoting 412. Neapolitan:


....
But let me give you Dr. Masters' probable take on this: the denialist author of the conference paper (not study) in question has seriously overstated her findings in regards to an "ice age". Any solar minimum will be barely noticeable in the long-term rise of the planet's surface temperature. Period.



Normally, I have the greatest respect for what you say, but here I think there is a lot of assumption in play. If you read the article in Wired (http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-07/13/mi ni-ice-age-earth-sunspots) linked to a few comments back, it says that the authors calculated that the sunspot minimum would drop to the lowest level since the mini ice age due to two separate 11 year sunspot cycles coinciding at a minimum for the first time in over 300 years.

"... new research suggests a second force -- or "wave" -- is at play. Two waves, operating at different layers in the Sun's interior, are now believed to drive solar activity. When these waves are desynchronised, temperatures on Earth fall.Both waves work on 11 year cycles and fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. When the waves stay in phase we see high levels of solar activity such as sunspots, and when out of phase we see low activity."

The paper states (as quoted by Science Daily) that " When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago." That is not remotely the same as saying we will have the same atmospheric condition as as existed during the Maunder Minimum, just that sunspot activity is predicted to be the same. Calling the authors 'deniers' based on that is pretty sloppy. In no way is this stating that rising CO2 levels caused by human activity does not result in rising temperature.


The paper is not peer-reviewed, it may "suggest" something is at play, but this suggesting comes at the use of a statistical model only looking at the last 3 cycles. Maximum, we can expect a decrease of radiative forcing of roughly .1 w/m^2, the equivalent of about 8 ppm CO2, if this statistical model pans out. In other words, this is a curve fitting exercise.

Again, I post this:

"Astrophysicists do not fully understand sunspot cycles and predictions of solar activity have come with mixed degrees of success. One such prediction of near-future activity has generated lots of headlines drawing analogy to the LIA and predicting a looming “mini ice age.” This prediction comes in the form of reduced solar cycle amplitude and possibly irradiance, based on a statistical model of magnetic activity using past data. One can suspend judgment on the robustness of their method and ask questions about the climate impact, even if “Maunder Minimum” type solar levels are borne out in the near future. The typical solar cycle amplitude is on the order of ~1 W/m2 and the difference from Maunder Minimum to present is around 1.5 W/m2 or so. Figure 2 allows you to eyeball some of the secular trends. These changes in total solar irradiance can be converted into a radiative forcing by dividing by a spherical geometric term and multiplying by the absorbed component (~70%) of the incoming radiation so 1.5*0.7/4 ~ 0.26 W/m2. This radiative forcing is the “common currency” by which we can compare solar trends to other active forcing mechanisms for a sense of the relative scale. Given the prediction of 40-80% reduction in solar cycle amplitude, the implied reduction in forcing is around 0.1 W/m2 or so, similar to just a few years of CO2 buildup. Thus, one should not worry about a “little ice age version 2″ given this prediction. It is, at best, a second-order fine tuning knob on the problem of contemporary climate change." Link

The media is just recycling a bad press release, this is getting absurd.
Thanks Bob,
Quoting 29. Gearsts:

Is this because of the El nino?


Not necessarily el nino, but a -NAO. Maybe that Bermuda High has weakened some, and allowed the trade winds to reverse,or weaken, allowing for warmer waters to replace the upwelling of the cooler waters caused by the strong trade winds of the Bermuda High.
Been thru 5 Solar Cycles.

I use SPF Unlimited though.

I would equate what is going on with the solar activity prediction to the following (totally made up scientific paper):

"15 minute perusal of Internet indicates that untied shoes have been potentially linked to fatal trip and fall accidents, especially when stairs are involved".

36 hours later the headline is this:

SHOES OF DEATH!??!?
Quoting 37. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Not necessarily el nino, but a -NAO. Maybe that Bermuda High has weakened some, and allowed the trade winds to reverse,or weaken, allowing for warmer waters to replace the upwelling of the cooler waters caused by the strong trade winds of the Bermuda High.
Yes but what is causing the big -NAO flip?
Quoting 40. Gearsts:

Yes but what is causing the big -NAO flip?

I'm not sure. Well this is my take. Well since the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are closely related, maybe the short term fluctuations associated with the Arctic Oscillation are influencing the NAO. I'm going to do some more research.
Quoting 39. tlawson48:

I would equate what is going on with the solar activity prediction to the following (totally made up scientific paper):

"15 minute perusal of Internet indicates that untied shoes have been potentially linked to fatal trip and fall accidents, especially when stairs are involved".

36 hours later the headline is this:

SHOES OF DEATH!??!?

and THAT'S why I remain barefooted as much as possible.

Add a cat into the mix- and we're doomed, I say-

ALL DOOMED.
Quoting 26. LongIslandBeaches:



Weren't there some on here saying the snow pile would last until next winter? Didn't seem to make it even halfway through July. (Nevermind how impressive it is for a pile of snow to last halfway into July!)

Gives you a bit of an idea of what has been happening in Alaska and the Canadian arctic, let alone Greenland.
When you can see things like this on your own doorstep even in an unusually cool spring/summer season, the power of temps and winds on massive snow piles is the same as what is happening to snowfields and glaciers.
When there were 100/F temps in mid Europe a week or so ago the snows of the alps would also be heading the same way towards a small pile of debris on the ground.

Meanwhile I think that we are in for a very large number of Pacific storms this year and that their heat distribution effects will have far reaching effects on the upper latitudes.
Another tornado in South Brazil. Was confirmed a tornado in Parana (state) in the city of Francisco Beltrão. Until now, also was confirmed that tornado is classified as a EF2 or EF3, very impressive images of damages, 19 people stayed injuries. Impressive outbreak of Severe Weather in South Brazil in this week, is very usual duo to the strong El Niño and even MJO that arrives since last week.





In some places, already dropped nearly 10 inches of rain in 48 hours. In cities of Parana (state) since last week the rain already is 500% above average of July. a lot of cities recorded hail, strong winds and high precipitation. A Flood Warning is in effect for a lot of cities between Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, including the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre.

The forecast warned that this week the temperatures will be above 30ºC in some areas and the early next week will be stormy again.


I jus got a text from Yukon Cornelius above the Arctic circle.

"send A/C window unit, with remote. FEDX overnight if possible"
Quoting 28. OviedoWatcher:

Reposted from previous blog:


Quoting 412. Neapolitan:


....
But let me give you Dr. Masters' probable take on this: the denialist author of the conference paper (not study) in question has seriously overstated her findings in regards to an "ice age". Any solar minimum will be barely noticeable in the long-term rise of the planet's surface temperature. Period.



Normally, I have the greatest respect for what you say, but here I think there is a lot of assumption in play. If you read the article in Wired (http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-07/13/mi ni-ice-age-earth-sunspots) linked to a few comments back, it says that the authors calculated that the sunspot minimum would drop to the lowest level since the mini ice age due to two separate 11 year sunspot cycles coinciding at a minimum for the first time in over 300 years.

"... new research suggests a second force -- or "wave" -- is at play. Two waves, operating at different layers in the Sun's interior, are now believed to drive solar activity. When these waves are desynchronised, temperatures on Earth fall.Both waves work on 11 year cycles and fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. When the waves stay in phase we see high levels of solar activity such as sunspots, and when out of phase we see low activity."

The paper states (as quoted by Science Daily) that " When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago." That is not remotely the same as saying we will have the same atmospheric condition as as existed during the Maunder Minimum, just that sunspot activity is predicted to be the same. Calling the authors 'deniers' based on that is pretty sloppy. In no way is this stating that rising CO2 levels caused by human activity does not result in rising temperature.
I called the author of the conference paper a denialist not for what the conference paper stated, but for the public assertions she's made that are typical of denialists. 1) She's made statements to the press talking of a Maunder Minimum-type ice age, statements that aren't supported by either her conference paper or any other science out there. 2) When questioned, she's fallen back to the denialist trope that all the planet's are showing warming that will soon become cooling, which is also not supported by either observation or evidence.

It's almost humorous that she's now asking--in her best Steve Urkel voice--"Oh, did I say that?" Yes, professor. You did.
Quoting 29. Gearsts:

Is this because of the El nino?


Here you go Gearsts

Negative NAO

A negative NAO indicates weakening of both the Icelandic low and Azores high, which decreases the pressure gradient across the North Atlantic. This decreased pressure gradient results in a slackening of the westerlies. The decrease in the westerlies allows cold air to build up over Canada, and this combined with below average heights (troughing) over the eastern U.S. gives the cold air a greater chance to move south and affect the eastern United States.
Below average geopotential heights are often observed over the eastern U.S. during the negative phase of the NAO, which correlates to below average temperatures
The eastern U.S. typically receives colder, drier air masses during the winter season in this phase
Recent studies at the SCO indicate an increased potential for wintry weather in NC due to the position and availability of cold air, and a more favorable upper level pattern conducive to coastal storm tracks
Negative NAO
500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative NAO

So basically, I was somewhat correct.
Quoting 45. pablosyn:

Another tornado in South Brazil. Was confirmed a tornado in Parana (state) in the city of Francisco Beltrão. Until now, also was confirmed that tornado is classified as a EF2 or EF3, very impressive images of damages, 19 people stayed injuries. Impressive outbreak of Severe Weather in South Brazil in this week, is very usual duo to the strong El Niño and even MJO that arrives since last week.



img style="width:
500px; max-width: 501px;" src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/gglcontent/sa tl.gif">

In some places, already dropped nearly 10 inches of rain in 48 hours. In cities of Parana (state) since last week the rain already is 500% above average of July. a lot of cities recorded hail, strong winds and high precipitation. A Flood Warning is in effect for a lot of cities between Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, including the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre.

The forecast warned that this week the temperatures will be above 30ºC in some areas and the early next week will be stormy again.




Were any of these areas previously in a drought?
Dry air ingestion in the SW quad of Delores and some shear is keeping intensification in check for the time being; tomorrow will be interesting to see as the core is well insulated. Once the dry air is mixed out, we should start to see some real intensification by tomorrow evening:



[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Quoting 48. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Here you go Gearsts

Negative NAO

A negative NAO indicates weakening of both the Icelandic low and Azores high, which decreases the pressure gradient across the North Atlantic. This decreased pressure gradient results in a slackening of the westerlies. The decrease in the westerlies allows cold air to build up over Canada, and this combined with below average heights (troughing) over the eastern U.S. gives the cold air a greater chance to move south and affect the eastern United States.
Below average geopotential heights are often observed over the eastern U.S. during the negative phase of the NAO, which correlates to below average temperatures
The eastern U.S. typically receives colder, drier air masses during the winter season in this phase
Recent studies at the SCO indicate an increased potential for wintry weather in NC due to the position and availability of cold air, and a more favorable upper level pattern conducive to coastal storm tracks
Negative NAO
500mb Height Anomalies During a Negative NAO

So basically, I was somewhat correct.
Yes
Quoting 31. tlawson48:



It has been stated before that the snow pile lasts in a normal year into the first week of June. So lasting into July this year (given the totally insane amount of snow that fell) seems a reasonable outcome. It was also insanely cold in Boston for February, and well below normal for March, so a lot of what would normally melt during the late winter, did not melt this year.

IF you built a big enough pile snow, it might last through the summer. To put things in perspective, Mount Washington frequently builds a drift in Tuckerman Ravine to over 80 feet deep each winter and the last of that usually melts out in July. That is in a much colder location on a north facing slope (although a lot wetter than downtown Boston) and much less compact (no 20 ton bulldozers driving around on it for two months). Still, it shows that the trash mixed in with the pile did a decent job of insulating the snow.


THere was some work done a few decades ago using snowmakers to make huge snow piles in insulated pits webbed with water pipes. The intent was to use that snow for summer space cooling. I don't know what became of it. The seasonal cooling needs of a typical house in the middle atlantic could be met by between 300 and 400 tons of ice. And prior to refrigeration technology, there were insulated ice houses where winter ice was gathered from lakes and rivers and packed tightly. This lasted through the summer from Central VA north. South of there it was just hard to get collectible ice
Quoting 38. Patrap:

Been thru 5 Solar Cycles.

I use SPF Unlimited though.




SPF Unlimited? Is that a roof?
Quoting 43. aquak9:


and THAT'S why I remain barefooted as much as possible.

Add a cat into the mix- and we're doomed, I say-

ALL DOOMED.


On the other hand the combination of barefoot, nighttime and legos is a painful mix.

Quoting 54. georgevandenberghe:



On the other hand the combination of barefoot, nighttime and legos is a painful mix.




Irons on ironing boards and nighttime are also a painful mix.
Quoting 40. Gearsts:

Yes but what is causing the big -NAO flip?


Weather. The NAO has a lot of high frequency variability.
Quoting 22. Patrap:




Kind of makes you laugh when people call this season a bust. Despite El Nino conditions the Atlantic has already had 3 named storms and the season really doesn't kick in until after August 1! All it takes is one to make a mess of things for people in it's path.
Quoting 59. 69Viking:



Kind of makes you laugh when people call this season a bust. Despite El Nino conditions the Atlantic has already had 3 named storms and the season really doesn't kick in until after August 1! All it takes is one to make a mess of things for people in it's path.


When I was growing up near Boston, I always wanted to see a hurricane. My father who was a research meteorologist always said "No, you don't" I never believed him until 2004 and 2005 here in Mobile. He was right.
Quoting 61. JustDucky251:



When I was growing up near Boston, I always wanted to see a hurricane. My father who was a research meteorologist always said "No, you don't" I never believed him until 2004 and 2005 here in Mobile. He was right.


Erin and Opel were my introduction to hurricanes in 1995 and though I like monitoring the tropics and think the storms are beautiful I wouldn't have a problem if a hurricane never hit the Fort Walton Beach area again!
Quoting 56. JustDucky251:



Irons on ironing boards and nighttime are also a painful mix.


Freezer, chicken and foot are also a very painful mix
Wow.


Couple of intense supercells along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Definitely some tornado potential as they interact with an outflow boundary across the area.





Quoting 63. txjac:



Freezer, chicken and foot are also a very painful mix


It's the gravity of the situation that gets you (see, Science).
Quoting 35. Naga5000:



The paper is not peer-reviewed, it may "suggest" something is at play, but this suggesting comes at the use of a statistical model only looking at the last 3 cycles. Maximum, we can expect a decrease of radiative forcing of roughly .1 w/m^2, the equivalent of about 8 ppm CO2, if this statistical model pans out. In other words, this is a curve fitting exercise.

Again, I post this:

"Astrophysicists do not fully understand sunspot cycles and predictions of solar activity have come with mixed degrees of success. One such prediction of near-future activity has generated lots of headlines drawing analogy to the LIA and predicting a looming “mini ice age.” This prediction comes in the form of reduced solar cycle amplitude and possibly irradiance, based on a statistical model of magnetic activity using past data. One can suspend judgment on the robustness of their method and ask questions about the climate impact, even if “Maunder Minimum” type solar levels are borne out in the near future. The typical solar cycle amplitude is on the order of ~1 W/m2 and the difference from Maunder Minimum to present is around 1.5 W/m2 or so. Figure 2 allows you to eyeball some of the secular trends. These changes in total solar irradiance can be converted into a radiative forcing by dividing by a spherical geometric term and multiplying by the absorbed component (~70%) of the incoming radiation so 1.5*0.7/4 ~ 0.26 W/m2. This radiative forcing is the “common currency” by which we can compare solar trends to other active forcing mechanisms for a sense of the relative scale. Given the prediction of 40-80% reduction in solar cycle amplitude, the implied reduction in forcing is around 0.1 W/m2 or so, similar to just a few years of CO2 buildup. Thus, one should not worry about a “little ice age version 2″ given this prediction. It is, at best, a second-order fine tuning knob on the problem of contemporary climate change." Link

The media is just recycling a bad press release, this is getting absurd.



Again, someone not reading the point of the post. The point I was making was that the authors should not be labeled 'deniers', as they made no suggestions as to what this would do to the environment. I was not claiming their model was accurate, I was just pointing out that Neo labelled them deniers without actually verifying what the authors stated. That is exactly the type of complaint that Neo and others level at people who are verifiable climate change deniers. For the record, I am not an AGW denier. As someone who has a PhD and has written a fairly large number of peer-reviewed papers myself, I see no reason not to accept the basic, easily verifiable science behind the causes of global warming, nor the generally accepted conclusions of the vast majority of climate change scientists as to what increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere are doing to it.
A bit of drought relief for SoCal???

Quoting 59. 69Viking:



Kind of makes you laugh when people call this season a bust. Despite El Nino conditions the Atlantic has already had 3 named storms and the season really doesn't kick in until after August 1! All it takes is one to make a mess of things for people in it's path.


This is typical of an El Niño season. We'll see early season storms but the height of the season gets flattened. Look at 1997. I believe there were 6 storms by the end of July but only 1 during the peak.
Quoting 67. OviedoWatcher:




Again, someone not reading the point of the post. The point I was making was that the authors should not be labeled 'deniers', as they made no suggestions as to what this would do to the environment. I was not claiming their model was accurate, I was just pointing out that Neo labelled them deniers without actually verifying what the authors stated. That is exactly the type of complaint that Neo and others level at people who are verifiable climate change deniers. For the record, I am not an AGW denier. As someone who has a PhD and has written a fairly large number of peer-reviewed papers myself, I see no reason not to accept the basic, easily verifiable science behind the causes of global warming, nor the generally accepted conclusions of the vast majority of climate change scientists as to what increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere are doing to it.


I apologize as I misunderstood your point. My mistake. I will say Zharkova brought up a number of contrarian talking points in this radio interview on the paper, whether she is simply ill informed or purposely ill informing is up for debate, I think.
Quoting 47. Neapolitan:

I called the author of the conference paper a denialist not for what the conference paper stated, but for the public assertions she's made that are typical of denialists. 1) She's made statements to the press talking of a Maunder Minimum-type ice age, statements that aren't supported by either her conference paper or any other science out there. 2) When questioned, she's fallen back to the denialist trope that all the planet's are showing warming that will soon become cooling, which is also not supported by either observation or evidence.

It's almost humorous that she's now asking--in her best Steve Urkel voice--"Oh, did I say that?" Yes, professor. You did.


Ok, that is fair enough. I hadn't read those statements, though to be honest after a scan of the first couple of pages of a google search for her name I could not find anything 'denialist' that is a direct quote from her, only journalists' extrapolations, such as this from mentalfloss.co.uk "As ScienceAlert reports, this drop in activity could result in a mini ice age, causing a series of bitterly cold winters until solar activity rises again" . I was only reading quotes attributed to the paper actually said.
Things are looking rather juicy this afternoon in Charleston. CAPE is at 4,000+ and DCAPE is north of 1,000. Helicity is on the rise as well, so we could get some rotation. Now it's a waiting game...
Quoting 70. Naga5000:



I apologize as I misunderstood your point. My mistake. I will say Zharkova brought up a number of contrarian talking points in this radio interview on the paper, whether she is simply ill informed or purposely ill informing is up for debate, I think.


I think the discussion in "http://climateandcapitalism.com/2015/07/13/no-we- are-not-headed-for-a-little-ice-age/" sums it up best, especially the following

"How much would a return of the solar cycle to Maunder Minimum conditions reduce global temperatures? The drop would be 0.10 C globally. Not nearly enough to offset the effect of current greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, and not nearly enough to offset the most conservative expected increase of 1.00 C (or 1.80 F) over the next three decades.

This is very poor reporting of Valentina Zharkova’s work. A return to Maunder Minimum conditions refers to sunspot levels. There is no reason to expect a change to the Little Ice Age climate conditions."
74. JRRP

NAO
Updated through 2014, added Arthur
Nevermind.

--Emily Litella

;-)
Quoting 68. JNFlori30A:

A bit of drought relief for SoCal???




I certainly hope so!
And can someone do something about the ridge over Texas ...make it move ...I need some rain too!
Guess what we are finally getting?

Quoting 79. Grothar:

Guess what we are finally getting?




My father in Ft. Lauderdale called to tell me it was thundering. You would have thought he lived in Southern California based on his surprised reaction. Haha
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Afternoon all. Currently picking up some precipitation from a thunderstorm passing through the area. It's unusual for us to get this kind of storm without a tropical system in the vicinity at this time of year .
Quoting 28. OviedoWatcher:

Reposted from previous blog:


Quoting 412. Neapolitan:


....
But let me give you Dr. Masters' probable take on this: the denialist author of the conference paper (not study) in question has seriously overstated her findings in regards to an "ice age". Any solar minimum will be barely noticeable in the long-term rise of the planet's surface temperature. Period.



Normally, I have the greatest respect for what you say, but here I think there is a lot of assumption in play. If you read the article in Wired (http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-07/13/mi ni-ice-age-earth-sunspots) linked to a few comments back, it says that the authors calculated that the sunspot minimum would drop to the lowest level since the mini ice age due to two separate 11 year sunspot cycles coinciding at a minimum for the first time in over 300 years.

"... new research suggests a second force -- or "wave" -- is at play. Two waves, operating at different layers in the Sun's interior, are now believed to drive solar activity. When these waves are desynchronised, temperatures on Earth fall.Both waves work on 11 year cycles and fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. When the waves stay in phase we see high levels of solar activity such as sunspots, and when out of phase we see low activity."

The paper states (as quoted by Science Daily) that " When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago." That is not remotely the same as saying we will have the same atmospheric condition as as existed during the Maunder Minimum, just that sunspot activity is predicted to be the same. Calling the authors 'deniers' based on that is pretty sloppy. In no way is this stating that rising CO2 levels caused by human activity does not result in rising temperature.

Very classy post.
Quoting 49. Kenfa03:


Were any of these areas previously in a drought?
I was about to say, Meanwhile the drought-stricken north [of Brazil] remains dry....
We are getting severe weather in many places. Tornado spotted on the ground in Cookeville.



Quoting 79. Grothar:

Guess what we are finally getting?




snowflakes?