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Category 3 Chan-hom: One of Shanghai's Strongest Typhoons on Record?

By: Jeff Masters 12:29 AM GMT on July 10, 2015

Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed northwest at 14 mph towards China, and appears poised to make landfall as one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Of particular concern is Chan-hom's storm surge, which has the potential to bring the highest water levels ever observed into Shanghai, China's most populous city, with 23 million people in the metro area. In their 5:45 am EDT Friday advisory, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Chan-hom's central pressure at 935 mb; in their 5 am EDT Friday advisory, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Chan-hom's top winds at 125 mph. A storm of this magnitude is sure to pile up a large storm surge, particularly since Chan-hom is a very large typhoon with tropical-storm force winds that extended outwards up to 310 miles from the center. This storm surge will pile up throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, the potential exists for some of the highest water levels ever recorded along portions of the coast south of Shanghai, to the right of where the center makes landfall. Chan-hom is likely to weaken significantly as the storm approaches landfall, due to cooler waters, higher wind shear, and interaction with land. JTWC and JMA were forecasting on Friday morning (U.S. EDT) that Chan-hom would make landfall between 06 - 09 UTC Saturday (2 am - 4 am EDT, or 3 - 5 pm JST.) In their 5:45 am EDT Friday forecast, JMA predicted that Chan-hom would have a 950 mb pressure and sustained 10-minute average winds of 90 mph at landfall. In their 5 am EDT Friday forecast, JTWC predicted that Chan-hom would be a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds (1-minute average) at landfall. Even at this lowered intensity, Chan-hom would still be the strongest landfalling storm to hit within 200 miles of Shanghai in at least 35 years. On Friday morning, the typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall. While this process weakens the peak winds near the center, it spreads the typhoon-strength winds over a larger area, increasing the size of the storm surge.


Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by radar on Okinawa at 7:45 pm EDT Thursday (08:45 JST Friday, July 10), 2015. At the time, Chan-hom was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: JMA.

Strong typhoons hitting near Shanghai: a rare occurrence
China gets hit by about nine tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storms, or typhoons) each year (Chen, 2000), but these strikes occur primarily in the southern portion of the country. The Jiangsu Province where Shanghai lies received only seven landfalls in the 50-year period 1947 - 1999, so the region does not have a lot of typhoon experience. Since 1979, no typhoon with winds in excess of about 85 mph (75 mph winds using a 10-minute averaging time) has made landfall within about 200 miles of Shanghai (Figure 2.) Historically, the strongest typhoon to affect the city in the past century may be Typhoon Gloria of July 24 - 25, 1949, whose storm surge overwhelmed the city's flood walls and left much of Shanghai a flooded ruin, with over 250,000 people homeless (See David Longshore's Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones). Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China near where Chan-hom is predicted to strike. Wanda killed 2000 people in China. China has had four typhoons that have killed at least 37,000 people each--most recently in 1975, when torrential rains from what had been Super Typhoon Nina caused the Banqiao Dam to fail, killing 90,000 - 230,000 people.


Figure 2. Tracks of all typhoons with at least 75 mph winds (10-minute average winds as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) to pass within a 230-mile diameter circle (light shaded region) near Shanghai, China. Typhoon Winnie is labeled in white. Ten-minute average winds of 75 mph are roughly equivalent to 85 mph winds for the one-minute averaging time winds used for the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale. All of the storms in this plot had sustained 10-minute average winds of 75 mph or less when they made landfall. Image credit: NOAA.

A historical analogue: Typhoon Winnie of 1997
The largest storm surge observed at the coast in Shanghai since 1921 was 5.9 feet (1.81 meters) during Typhoon Emma of 1956. However, Emma's maximum surge did not occur at high tide (the difference between low tide and high tide in Shanghai is about 7.2 feet or 2.2 meters, so it makes a big difference when the maximum storm surge arrives, relative to high tide.) The highest storm tide (water level) in Shanghai came during Typhoon Winnie of August 1997. Although Winnie was only a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and the storm struck relatively far from Shanghai, about 180 miles to the south, the storm surge from Winnie was only 5.5" (14 cm) below the top of the 19.2-foot (5.86 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai on the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall was rated to protect against a 1-in-200 year flood, and was overtopped by about one foot (30 cm) along a 8.5 mile (13.7 km) section inland from the downtown area, flooding over 400 homes (source: Flood probability analysis of the Huangpu barrier in Shanghai, M.S. thesis by Qian Ke.) According to EM-DAT, Winnie killed 240 people and did $2.7 billion (1997 dollars) in damage to China. The floodwall protecting downtown Shanghai has been raised by 3.4 feet (1.05 meters) since then, giving the city protection against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Thus, it will take a much stronger storm than Winnie to flood the city. Chan-hom is predicted to be a much stronger storm at landfall than Winnie was, and is forecast to hit closer to Shanghai. The newly raised floodwalls of Shanghai may see their highest water levels in history when Chan-hom makes landfall, depending upon whether or not the peak storm surge occurs near high tide.

Low tide in Shanghai is at 07:07 UTC Saturday, about the time that Chan-hom is forecast to make landfall. That is potentially good news for the coastal region near the landfall point. However, high tide is at 12:48 UTC Saturday, at a time when the center of Chan-hom is predicted to be over land but just south of the city, so the counter-clockwise circulation around the center will be pushing water into the city. Fortunately, this high tide is not a very high one--high tides late next week will be more than two feet higher than this. Though Chan-hom will be weakening as it approaches Shanghai during Saturday's high tide, JTWC is predicting the storm will still be at Category 1 strength. If Chan-hom follows the JTWC track and intensity forecast, it will be capable of pushing a record-size storm surge into the city during this 12:48 UTC Saturday high tide, potentially challenging the 1-in-200 year water levels observed during Typhoon Winnie of 1997. I've read several studies explaining how storm surge propagation in the Yellow Sea is extremely complicated, so I am unsure just how the great the risk is from this storm without seeing data from a sophisticated real-time storm surge model, though.


Figure 3. Typhoon Winnie as it passed just south of Okinawa on August 17, 1997, at 11:36 UTC. Note that the small inner eyewall of the typhoon had become completely surrounded by a concentric 230-mile diameter eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Why was Typhoon Winnie's storm surge so high?
If Typhoon Winnie was only a Category 1 storm, and its center crossed the coast relatively far away from Shanghai (180 miles), why did it bring such a large storm surge to the city? Well, Winnie was a freak. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.


Figure 4. The 22.6-foot (6.9 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai from storm surges coming up the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall is rated to protect against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Image credit: Dorothy Tang.

Sea level rise and Shanghai
Sea levels have been rising globally by about 3.3 mm per year over the past few decades. According to a 2015 study, Sea level change and city safety—The Shanghai as an example, sea levels have been rising a bit slower in Shanghai--about 2 mm/year, but the land has been sinking at more than double that rate, due to compaction of soil and groundwater pumping to support intensive urban development. As a result, the relative rise of sea level in the city has been about 7 mm/year, which is a huge concern for a city whose average ground level is already below the average high tide level. The authors predicted that over the next twenty years, Shanghai will see the relative sea level rise by 10 - 16 cm (3.9 - 6.3 inches), which will make storm surges from typhoons like Chan-hom more dangerous. With sea level rise likely to accelerate due to increased melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Shanghai will be increasingly hard-pressed to keep the ocean at bay this century using ever-higher flood walls. A new approach, called the Yangtze River Delta Project (YDRP), offers a more innovative way to manage Shanghai's increasing flood risk due to the steadily rising seas. The YRDP research group develops "soft" infrastructural strategies (as opposed to "hard" floodwalls) to respond to sea level rise and storm surge. For example, the team is studying the flood control techniques devised by Yu the Great (2200-2100 BCE, founder of China's Xia Dynasty), who created a system of irrigation canals that channeled river floodwaters into agricultural fields, building low earthen dikes to guide the water’s flow. Other studies undertaken by the research group include projects for the transformation of New York and New Jersey’s Upper Harbor and a land-building sediment diversion proposal for the Mississippi River Delta.

The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow - and Colorado Bob's article link from the previous blog seems appropriate for this Dr. Masters blog as well. Regarding sea level rise.

I hope that the sea wall in Shanghai protects the city from flooding.
Dust Storm Warning
Statement as of 5:34 PM PDT on July 09, 2015

...Dust Storm Warning in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a dust Storm
Warning...which is in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening.

* Timing: through 7 PM this evening.

* Winds: wind gusts to 45 mph from thunderstorm outflows.

* Visibility: less than 1/4 mile and down to less than 50 yards at
times from Toulon to Rye Patch Reservoir including Lovelock.

* Impacts: reduced visibility in blowing dust will create
hazardous driving conditions on Interstate 80. Visibility will
deteriorate in a very short distance. This is a life threatening
situation if you are traveling along Interstate 80.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dangerous dust storm is occurring. Widespread blowing dust is
expected in the warned area with visibilities less than 100 feet.
Travelers encountering this dust storm should slow down or
safely pull off to the side of the Road...and turn on their
headlights.


Dust storm warning? Seriously? Go home EAS, you're drunk.


Yikes. Just got clobbered by this line of storms. Didn't see that coming. Tons of thunder and lightning.
Scarey Saturday coming for Shanghai. Hopefully the peak surge will miss high tide.
Quoting 229. Misanthroptimist:


Almost right. They get to decide what they regard as world records. Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever.


It's beyond me why anyone would make a statement like this. The WMO gathers many of the best scientists from around the world to ensure for specific investigations to ensure that a prescribed record measurement was in fact "reality" & precisely to what extent, with some of their investigations becoming published in literature... As much as I get on Scott for making extravagant El Nino claims, this one blows all of his out of the water.
Doc has that serious tone........
we now have 97E

EP, 97, 2015071000, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1180W, 20, 1008, DB
Quoting 2. JustDucky251:

Dadgum!! I almost got to be first!



rule 7 Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space


dont look at me am not the one that writes the rule i this follow them
My ex grew up in Shanghai, and still has many relatives and friends there. For all their sakes I hope the storm is less than it appears to be.

I am going home and praying for their well being.

Good evening all. (Have some juicy arguments and froth rabidly - it livens the evening)
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Quoting 229. Misanthroptimist:


Almost right. They get to decide what they regard as world records. Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever.

Quoting 6. Webberweather53:



It's beyond me why anyone would make a statement like this. The WMO gathers many of the best scientists from around the world to ensure for specific investigations to ensure that a prescribed record measurement was in fact "reality" & precisely to what extent, with some of their investigations becoming published in literature... As much as I get on Scott for making extravagant El Nino claims, this one blows all of his out of the water.
Yeah, that seems a puzzling thing for Misanthroptimist to say. How should the validity of temperature records be established, by popular vote? Or is Misanthroptimist just making a general rant? "Those snooty scientists are just stuck up! They don't know everything!"

I guess I don't get the point of the comment. Perhaps Misanthroptimist will expand upon it for us.
Quoting 6. Webberweather53:



It's beyond me why anyone would make a statement like this. The WMO gathers many of the best scientists from around the world to ensure for specific investigations to ensure that a prescribed record measurement was in fact "reality" & precisely to what extent, with some of their investigations becoming published in literature... As much as I get on Scott for making extravagant El Nino claims, this one blows all of his out of the water.

That must be vary hard for you. There is absolutely no reason to believe the record temperature set in March is inaccurate. It's a temperature reading, for gawd's sake! It's a temperature reading taken at a scientific research station. There is zero reason to doubt it. The only "reason" it's not the "official" record is the bureaucracy hasn't gotten around to rubber-stamping it yet.

You are in essence appealing to authority which hasn't ruled yet. It's very bizarre. Example from the sports world (and dating myself while I'm at it]: When Hank Aaron hit home run number 715 to pass Babe Ruth as the all-time ML home run leader it didn't immediately go into the official record books. There was a process that had to take place in the offices of MLB before that record showed up in the books. In the interim no one was running around claiming that Babe Ruth was still the leader, that Aaron's home run wasn't official yet. That would have been extremely weird.

In essence, that is your position with the new record temperature in Antarctica. It is no less weird than my example.
Quoting 7. nrtiwlnvragn:

Doc has that serious tone........
Like deja vu from 2005 ...
2305 UTC pass

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 12. AdamReith:

Quoting 229. Misanthroptimist:


Almost right. They get to decide what they regard as world records. Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever.

Yeah, that seems a puzzling thing for Misanthroptimist to say. How should the validity of temperature records be established, by popular vote? Or is Misanthroptimist just making a general rant? "Those snooty scientists are just stuck up! They don't know everything!"

I guess I don't get the point of the comment. Perhaps Misanthroptimist will expand upon it for us.

It was scientists that took the reading. It is bureaucracy holding up the posting of it as a record. ;-)
Quoting 13. Misanthroptimist:


That must be vary hard for you. There is absolutely no reason to believe the record temperature set in March is inaccurate. It's a temperature reading, for gawd's sake! It's a temperature reading taken at a scientific research station. There is zero reason to doubt it. The only "reason" it's not the "official" record is the bureaucracy hasn't gotten around to rubber-stamping it yet.

You are in essence appealing to authority which hasn't ruled yet. It's very bizarre. Example from the sports world (and dating myself while I'm at it]: When Hank Aaron hit home run number 715 to pass Babe Ruth as the all-time ML home run leader it didn't immediately go into the official record books. There was a process that had to take place in the offices of MLB before that record showed up in the books. In the interim no one was running around claiming that Babe Ruth was still the leader, that Aaron's home run wasn't official yet. That would have been extremely weird.

In essence, that is your position with the new record temperature in Antarctica. It is no less weird than my example.


Other than to support your blatantly obvious confirmation bias, you should have absolutely no reason to make that statement all, nor would any sane objective individual do so, this temperature record hasn't been confirmed nor assessed yet by actual experts, but somehow the data "is wrong, whether it comes from the WMO or anyone else." Ironically, this line of rationale is eerily similar to the "denialists" of AGW, full of misguided assumptions & no evidence...

You are in essence appealing to authority
There's that "appeal to authority" statement I've been accustomed to seeing over the past several years in the skeptical blogosphere & even used to promulgate myself
Yawn.
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

!!! When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job: Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can't really talk about it. Discuss


One of the best books (recently reminded of this) about how humanity reacts to a global crisis is Balmer and Wylie's "When Worlds Collide." The observations and journal entries of the characters in the story look, to my mind, hilariously familiar to what we're seeing now.

If all you do is read the book only up until the mobs try to take over the launch location, you'll see just what I mean. Maybe I'll quote some later - the book sits on my windowsill.

Oh, and it was published in 1933.
Quoting 6. Webberweather53:



It's beyond me why anyone would make a statement like this. The WMO gathers many of the best scientists from around the world to ensure for specific investigations to ensure that a prescribed record measurement was in fact "reality" & precisely to what extent, with some of their investigations becoming published in literature... As much as I get on Scott for making extravagant El Nino claims, this one blows all of his out of the water.


Misanthroptimist's statement "Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever." is logically valid in the sense that their decisions do not cause or influence prior temperatures. On the other hand temperatures may have an effect on WMO's decisions.
What conditions have to be present for a storm to form an outer eye wall like typhoon Winnie?
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

!!! When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job: Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can't really talk about it. Discuss

But what about the economy?! If we do anything to address AGW/CC the entire world economy will come crashing to a halt.
Quoting 296. Astrometeor:

Good, never liked them anyways. Worst recommendation Grothar ever made to God. Ok, maybe not the worst. Mosquitoes, gnats (BaltimoreBrian, don't you dare), and chiggers are the worst. As are viruses.

Don't do what? ;)



tree fall down in new haven,conn
we have invest 97E NOW!!
Quoting 18. Webberweather53:



Other than to support your blatantly obvious confirmation bias, you should have absolutely no reason to make that statement all, nor would any sane objective individual do so, this temperature record hasn't been confirmed nor assessed yet by actual experts, but somehow the data "is wrong, whether it comes from the WMO or anyone else." Ironically, this line of rationale is eerily similar to the "denialists" of AGW, full of misguided assumptions & no evidence...

You are in essence appealing to authority
There's that "appeal to authority" statement I've been accustomed to seeing over the past several years in the skeptical blogosphere & even used to promulgate myself
Yawn.

Your confusion is amusing. Perhaps I can simplify it for you.

1. Record temperature reading taken by science research station. (Actually, two records on consecutive days.)
2. WMO has neither confirmed nor denied the record.
3. There is no known reason to reject the temperature reading, nor has WMO contested it.
4. The temperature can be considered valid in the absence of disconfirming evidence.
5. The new record hasn't yet worked its way through the WMO bureaucracy .
6. The WMO record is out of date. Their listed "record" is actually the second or third highest temperature measured on Antarctica.

Let me know when the WMO rejects the two measured temperatures that exceed their listed temperature, will you?

ETA: You've also misused confirmation bias.
Quoting 20. DCSwithunderscores:



Misanthroptimist's statement "Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever." is logically valid in the sense that their decisions do not cause or influence the temperatures. On the other hand the temperatures may have an effect on WMO's decisions.


Misanthroptimst is intentionally jumping the gun, I seriously doubt the WMO would purposely not choose this as a new record if the evidence was indeed there to overturn the previous record. A thorough quality control assessment must be completed to confirm the record, which includes giving consideration to error margins & carefully checking for potential sources of bias including calibration errors, incident weather conditions, among other things to ensure the measured reading was accurate.
Quoting 8. Tazmanian:

we now have 97E

EP, 97, 2015071000, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1180W, 20, 1008, DB
MAYBE INVEST 98E soon
Quoting 26. Misanthroptimist:


Your confusion is amusing. Perhaps I can simplify it for you.

1. Record temperature reading taken by science research station. (Actually, two records on consecutive days.)
2. WMO has neither confirmed nor denied the record.
3. There is no known reason to reject the temperature reading, nor has WMO contested it.
4. The temperature can be considered valid in the absence of disconfirming evidence.
5. The new record hasn't yet worked its way through the WMO bureaucracy .
6. The WMO record is out of date. Their listed "record" is actually the second or third highest temperature measured on Antarctica.

Let me know when the WMO rejects the two measured temperatures that exceed their listed temperature, will you?

ETA: You've also misused confirmation bias.


So, if the record hasn't been confirmed or denied, then how can you justify that the WMO data is "old"? You're purposely latching onto one-two pieces of information & are assuming those as fact, while ignoring the rest & uncertainties. If that's not confirmation bias,... but hey ignorance knows no bounds.
Quoting 29. hurricanes2018:

MAYBE INVEST 98E soon


The Pacific is lit up like a Christmas tree while the Atlantic is like a dark room.
Well, Winnie was a freak.



According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.
Typhoon Chan-hom WunderMap®
Last Updated 7/9/2015, 2:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 25.1N 233.4E Movement NW at 14 mph
Wind 135 MPH
Quoting 32. Bucsboltsfan:



The Pacific is lit up like a Christmas tree while the Atlantic is like a dark room.
Fairly typical for this time of year ...
Quoting 30. Webberweather53:



So, if the record hasn't been confirmed or denied, then how can you justify that the WMO data is "old"? You're purposely latching onto one-two pieces of information & are assuming those as fact, while ignoring the rest & uncertainties. If that's not confirmation bias,... but hey ignorance knows no bounds.

The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.
The satellite should be renamed the NOAA DOOMSAT.
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

!!! When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job: Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can't really talk about it. Discuss

Elections still matter in the US, so look at the people around you as you go through your day. How many of them have their heads around AGW? How many are even capable of getting their heads around AGW? How soon are we going to run out of "leaders" who say AGW is lie? Dr. Box is spot on
Yesterday was Jurassic El-Nino and now today NOAA says its Bruce Lee after we were told to stop obsessing.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago
Ryan Maue retweeted NOAA Climate.gov
Yesterday NOAA told us to stop obsessing about El Nino updates. Today, they want to name it Bruce Lee. Weird!


Quoting 31. hurricanes2018:



wow!!
Maybe they could put CAT # inside the storms.



Typhoon Chan-hom WINDS 130 MPH!! AT 10PM ON july 9 2015
Quoting 39. Misanthroptimist:


The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.



Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.
Quoting 43. centex:

Maybe they could put CAT # inside the storms.
maybe someday its will happern
Quoting 43. centex:

Maybe they could put CAT # inside the storms.


Good idea, i already think about this, but it's cool to be in expectation and have a surprise when you click in the storm and see them intensities...
Quoting 4. tampabaymatt:



Yikes. Just got clobbered by this line of storms. Didn't see that coming. Tons of thunder and lightning.


It was bad here too.
NOAA says stop obsessing with the El Niño updates. Thank you!
hey guys

hey Scott I'm passing on NOAA's message on to you

STOP OBSESSING ABOUT THE EL NINO!!!!

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2015

Quoting 45. Webberweather53:



Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.


Good evening Webber. What is your take on this ENSO any changes upward with nearly all models over 2C on the July run. Any changes on the 850 winds with the WWB being incorporated the last 2 weeks?
How identify an El Niño?

July 10th 2015.



Quoting 51. Patrap:

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2012





Apparently we are naming El-Nino's now.
Quoting 3. nonblanche:

Dust Storm Warning
Statement as of 5:34 PM PDT on July 09, 2015

...Dust Storm Warning in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a dust Storm
Warning...which is in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening.

* Timing: through 7 PM this evening.

* Winds: wind gusts to 45 mph from thunderstorm outflows.

* Visibility: less than 1/4 mile and down to less than 50 yards at
times from Toulon to Rye Patch Reservoir including Lovelock.

* Impacts: reduced visibility in blowing dust will create
hazardous driving conditions on Interstate 80. Visibility will
deteriorate in a very short distance. This is a life threatening
situation if you are traveling along Interstate 80.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dangerous dust storm is occurring. Widespread blowing dust is
expected in the warned area with visibilities less than 100 feet.
Travelers encountering this dust storm should slow down or
safely pull off to the side of the Road...and turn on their
headlights.


Dust storm warning? Seriously? Go home EAS, you're drunk.
Probably true up by Rye Patch. There hasn't been anywhere near as much rain in the I-80 corridor toward Lovelock. That area's not as heavily vegetated as in the Fallon area and there's a lot more exposed sandy soil. I've been caught in a couple up near Rye Patch and it turns day into night pretty fast.
Quoting 45. Webberweather53:



Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.

You're devotion to the bureaucracy is touching. Let me try another example and see if it gets in there. Sometime next week GISS will release its GISTEMP figure for June. There's some chance it will be a record. If it is said to be a record, that will be accepted as true (even by you). That's true even though IPCC certainly won't endorse it in anything short of years, if they ever do. The reason is that we have confidence that GISS is staffed by scientists competent to make that claim and there is no evidence to refute the claim.

There is no evidence to indicate that the March readings in Antarctica were in error, nor is there any reason to suspect that the staff at the scientific research station where the temperature was measured weren't up to the task. Therefore, as far as can be known by you and me, there is no reason to reject the new record temperature. There is no reason to believe that the only thing holding up the posting of it as a new record is anything other than processing.

And with that I'm done with your snotty posts for the evening.
Quoting 6. Webberweather53:



It's beyond me why anyone would make a statement like this. The WMO gathers many of the best scientists from around the world to ensure for specific investigations to ensure that a prescribed record measurement was in fact "reality" & precisely to what extent, with some of their investigations becoming published in literature... As much as I get on Scott for making extravagant El Nino claims, this one blows all of his out of the water.


Claims that are coming true. I like to follow the Carl Shreck maps and is a really good indication on where we are headed. This WWB is on par with the one that set off the 1997 Super Nino. Also rapid cooling happen in the Banda Sea.



Quoting 51. Patrap:

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2015




I bet you're loads of fun around a fire ant nest
While everyone is talking heat down in Antarctica temps are expected to fall to -110 over the next day.
Quoting 55. sar2401:

Probably true up by Rye Patch. There hasn't been anywhere near as much rain in the I-80 corridor toward Lovelock. That area's not as heavily vegetated as in the Fallon area and there's a lot more exposed sandy soil. I've been caught in a couple up near Rye Patch and it turns day into night pretty fast.


Having been in a dry slot for oh, most of the last two years, I figured everyone else has just gotten everything and is swimming in a sea of mud. :) Also because, beer.

I haven't seen a good hailstorm since, what was it? '81 or '82, Orange County CA. I mean we got some occasionally in PA, but that one left drifts of hail on the lawns. This was just awesome especially because the kiddos got to see it.

Yeah, I'll shut up now. :)
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

While everyone is talking heat down in Antarctica temps are expected to fall to -110 over the next day.


ThEy call dat Winter down dere.

Plus warm is only relative to the observer

Vostok, Antarctica
Vostok | Change Station
Report Station


Elev 11447 ft 78.46 S, 106.87 E | Updated 2 hr ago

Blowing Snow

-85 F
Feels Like -85 F

Wind from South
Gusts mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.
Wasn't Wanda of 1956 also a bad storm for the Shanghai area?

Either way, Chan-Hom is looking up to be a rather damaging storm for Shanghai. Hopefully their floodwall can keep them safe from the storm surge of this typhoon.
Quoting 51. Patrap:

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2015



If it ain't a Rodan El Niño, it ain't an El Niño.
Quoting 39. Misanthroptimist:


The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.

It would really help if you read about the WMO record assesment process. It's much more involved than just noting a station had a certain reading for a day or number of days, even if it came from a scientific station. This is an excerpt from that link:

The truth be told, world record extremes are mistakenly created all the time. For example a "fat finger" errors such as hand digitizing a 28.0°C as 82.0 would create a world record observation that every quality control system would say was invalid. Additionally, instrumentation problems can generate a report far in excess of the meteorological conditions. But sometimes a combination of fairly extreme meteorological conditions with minor instrumentation problems, such as calibration errors, can necessitate considerable detective work to determine whether a new world record observation was indeed valid or not. Since weather records are often used as indicators that the Earth's climate is changing and/or becoming more extreme, confirmation of new weather extreme records should be recognized as a high priority in the meteorology community.
Quoting 57. Misanthroptimist:


You're devotion to the bureaucracy is touching. Let me try another example and see if it gets in there. Sometime next week GISS will release its GISTEMP figure for June. There's some chance it will be a record. If it is said to be a record, that will be accepted as true (even by you). That's true even though IPCC certainly won't endorse it in anything short of years, if they ever do. The reason is that we have confidence that GISS is staffed by scientists competent to make that claim and there is no evidence to refute the claim.

There is no evidence to indicate that the March readings in Antarctica were in error, nor is there any reason to suspect that the staff at the scientific research station where the temperature was measured weren't up to the task. Therefore, as far as can be known by you and me, there is no reason to reject the new record temperature. There is no reason to believe that the only thing holding up the posting of it as a new record is anything other than processing.

And with that I'm done with your snotty posts for the evening.


Oh boy another incessant rant filled with strawmen....
Let's get this straight, there's no evidence to refute nor accept this record, however, it's somehow still a record no matter what reexamination may reveal or what anyone else says, the WMO data is "old", anyone who's using it is "appealing to authority (bureaucracy)", and "their (WMO) decisions have absolutely no effect on reality whatsoever." Lol...
Quoting 22. Misanthroptimist:


But what about the economy?! If we do anything to address AGW/CC the entire world economy will come crashing to a halt.
Sorry, I'm new here. You're being sarcastic, right?
Quoting 67. sar2401:

It would really help if you read about the WMO record assesment process. It's much more involved than just noting a station had a certain reading for a day or number of days, even if it came from a scientific station. This is an excerpt from that link:

The truth be told, world record extremes are mistakenly created all the time. For example a "fat finger" errors such as hand digitizing a 28.0°C as 82.0 would create a world record observation that every quality control system would say was invalid. Additionally, instrumentation problems can generate a report far in excess of the meteorological conditions. But sometimes a combination of fairly extreme meteorological conditions with minor instrumentation problems, such as calibration errors, can necessitate considerable detective work to determine whether a new world record observation was indeed valid or not. Since weather records are often used as indicators that the Earth's climate is changing and/or becoming more extreme, confirmation of new weather extreme records should be recognized as a high priority in the meteorology community.

As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.
Quoting 66. Misanthroptimist:


You're dead to me, pat. Dead to me.

No, thanks. Just had a Klondike bar. I'll make up for it by walking extra fast tomorrow.


Been dead here like 43 times and once in 79' in a 77 Ranchero, so you're in rare but comfortable company.

I'm gonna be off here with the Pluto encounter early next week.

Gro has family there I think. Or is it Ceres?

So there is dat.

: )

Quoting 70. Misanthroptimist:


As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.

There isn't any viable reason to accept them either...
Quoting 69. AdamReith:

Sorry, I'm new here. You're being sarcastic, right?

Yes. :-)

It's kind of sad that my sarcasm could pass for an actual viewpoint, but I've heard variations of that very argument made many times. It seems you have, too.


O Snap, LoL....

Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show

The Weather Channel is looking to get its geek on.

The cable channel will soon announce the mid-August launch of a daily two-hour live show that taps into the resources and quirky spirit of Weather Underground, the website for meteorological enthusiasts obsessive enough to own personal forecast stations.

The Weather Co., the Weather Channel's parent, acquired Weather Underground in 2012, much to the chagrin of the site's fans who love its grass-roots approach to forecasting. They feared a corporate takeover of the San Francisco-based entity which grew through a network of devoted followers supplying data from across the country would make Weather Underground more commercial and less sophisticated. The site was founded by several University of Michigan students in 1993, taking their name from the left-wing radical organization formed in the late 1960s.

But the weather geeks who populate Weather Underground are the viewers the Weather Channel wants to attract with its new show.

The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.

The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate.

"They have a network of geeks that may not have a degree in weather, but they love it, and that's good enough for us," said Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer now in charge of live programming for the Weather Channel.

The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented.

- Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer

The Weather Underground show is the channel's latest bid to prove its value in an age when temperatures and forecasts are available in an instant on the Internet and mobile devices. The Weather Co. also owns Weather.com, the most visited Internet site for forecast information.

"The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented," Zimmett noted.

The privately held company, a consortium of NBCUniversal and private equity groups Blackstone Group and Bain Capital, saw the relevance of its 33-year-old cable channel come into serious question last year during a standoff with DirecTV. The nation's largest subscription video service provider refused to meet demands by the Weather Co. for an increase in fees to carry the Weather Channel, on the grounds that its content was widely available elsewhere. The Weather Channel was off DirecTV for three months before two sides agreed to terms.

The Weather Channel has always touted its role in public safety, providing continuous national coverage of storms and extreme weather. Viewership, which typically averages around 200,000 during the day, rose 11% in the first quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, thanks to brutal winter conditions in much of the U.S. There are even advertisers such as State Farm, Duracell and Home Depot that are ready with spots to air in the channel's disaster coverage.

But getting viewers to feel passionate about the Weather Channel during fair weather is a challenge. It tried in recent years by adding some climate-related reality series that looked as if they could have aired on outlets such as A&E or Discovery, but cut back on that programming as part of its new deal with DirecTV.

"Brands that attempt to be Swiss Army knives that have something for everybody %u2014 are failing," he said. "We're in an on-demand world. People can choose the best of everything. It's better to do really well with a passionate audience than it is to be all things to all people, especially in cable."

Clark said the channel has started moving in that direction, adding a half-hour science-oriented show called "WX Geeks." More scientific explanations are being weaved into regular coverage during the day.


Derek Baine, a senior analyst for media research firm SNL Kagan, said the channel is taking a smart course. "News and information has become such a commodity that any channels in this area need to change focus and develop more original programming," he said.

The Weather Underground show will be a true test of whether the channel can become more specialized. The deal to buy Weather Underground got a harsh reception from fans on Twitter. Before putting the brand's name on a TV show, the Weather Co. had to show it was true to its word that it would keep Weather Underground management in place and not alter the tone of the site.

"If we had launched this show back then it would have been rejected by the Weather Underground community," Clark said. "We're going to have to earn the respect of that community. If we do, it's a big success for us."



Quoting 61. nonblanche:



Having been in a dry slot for oh, most of the last two years, I figured everyone else has just gotten everything and is swimming in a sea of mud. :) Also because, beer.

I haven't seen a good hailstorm since, what was it? '81 or '82, Orange County CA. I mean we got some occasionally in PA, but that one left drifts of hail on the lawns. This was just awesome especially because the kiddos got to see it.

Yeah, I'll shut up now. :)
LOL. Beer. You even been to Empire, up by the Black Rock Desert? I got stuck there for a couple of hours in the early 80's. The gypsum plant was still operating then, and it was company town with about 400 people. The only gas station has a big sign that says "Welcome to Nowhere" so that gives you a pretty good idea of the amenities. There was a two hour dust storm that no one could drive through so there was a bunch of us stuck in the convenience store/bar/slot machine casino. There was lots of beer drunk that evening. The dust storm just suddenly died and five minutes later that worst hail storm I've ever seen commenced. It went on for 45 minutes with hail stones the size of silver dollars and covered the ground at least 1 foot deep. When the storm stopped, the setting sun broke through. It was the most amazing view of the Nevada desert I've ever seen. I have some slides stored away I'll have dig up. People who think the desert is bland and boring have never been in the right place at the right time.
Quoting 70. Misanthroptimist:


As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.
Well, I tried.
Quoting 64. Ryan1000:

Wasn't Wanda of 1956 also a bad storm for the Shanghai area?

Either way, Chan-Hom is looking up to be a rather damaging storm for Shanghai. Hopefully their floodwall can keep them safe from the storm surge of this typhoon.
I'm not sure why WU has that listed as a hurricane but it should be Super Typhoon Wanda. It came ashore in Zhejiang province, the province south of Shanghai. Although it killed about 6,000 people in Zhejiang, it came ashore right at the most mountainous part of the coast. The typhoon rapidly weakened and was a tropical depression in less than a day after landfall. It seems the storm surge also rapidly weakened when it spread north, and there was only some minor flooding in Shanghai. The path of Chan-hom is somewhat similar to Wanda, and landfall may occur in nearly the same place. The big difference now is 56 million people live in the province compared to less than six million in 1956. No matter where the typhoon goes, there's going to be death and destruction on a much larger scale this time.
Where's Keep? He'd be posting the unofficial blog theme song about now.

Regarding the blogpost, I agree w/ nrtiwlnvragn - Doc does have that serious tone.
Anyone heard from galveston since yesterday?
Quoting 77. sar2401:

I'm not sure why WU has that listed as a hurricane but it should be Super Typhoon Wanda. It came ashore in Zhejiang province, the province south of Shanghai. Although it killed about 6,000 people in Zhejiang, it came ashore right at the most mountainous part of the coast. The typhoon rapidly weakened and was a tropical depression in less than a day after landfall. It seems the storm surge also rapidly weakened when it spread north, and there was only some minor flooding in Shanghai. The path of Chan-hom is somewhat similar to Wanda, and landfall may occur in nearly the same place. The big difference now is 56 million people live in the province compared to less than six million in 1956. No matter where the typhoon goes, there's going to be death and destruction on a much larger scale this time.


Thanks, I added this sentence:

Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China near where Chan-hom is predicted to strike. Wanda killed 2000 people in China--one of their deadliest typhoons of all-time.

(That's the EM-DAT death toll; I'm sure other sources differ.)

Dr. M.
Jakobshavn Glacier Calving June 20th 2015

1 to 1.5 km wide calving event.

Just watch this , Jakobshavn Glacier Calving June 20th 2015 at 5 min. watch very close. You will see melt water burst to the surface . In huge feature and just keeps pouring out melt water till the end of the video.
Link
Quoting 71. Patrap:



Been dead here like 43 times and once in 79' in a 77 Ranchero, so you're in rare but comfortable company.

I'm gonna be off here with the Pluto encounter early next week.

Gro has family there I think. Or is it Ceres?

So there is dat.

: )



New Horizons will have a good deal of my attention next week, too.


Click pic to embiggen.
I wanted to post this, I know I am a bit late...contribute that to playing games with my brother and viciously eating watermelon. The watermelon weren't vicious, I was...to the watermelon. Forget it.

Here was what started the whole debate between webber and Misanthroptimist (gosh that's hard to spell, I liked Birthmark better).

Quoting 112. NativeSun:

Pretty wild statement, and who are you? It's not only JB, but other forecasters over on the WB site, like Dr. Maue, and JD. Both excellent meteorologist and climate scientist, and what is your expertise in climate science? One thing I like about JB is he use analogs from past years to try to prove his points as the weather tries to repeat itself from years past. Not exactly the same but close in a lot of cases.


I'm not sure anyone really took notice to this comment. I'll explain. The commenter below posted this:

Quoting 97. maxcrc:



Those temperatures ARE ALL FAKE.
Death Valley record absolute record is 129F, only a real ignorant who lacks even the basics of climatology can believe to that scam, which was near 20F overestimated compared to its real temperature. The South America record is FAKE, with overestimation of more than 15F. And so on, that garbage of Tirats Tsvi IS A SCAM and as that ridicoulous joke of Kebili in Africa is MILLIONS times worse than Al AZizia and it was overestimating by 20-25F the temperature.
ALL temperatures reported in that map ARE FAKE, that Antarctica "record" is regularly beaten EVERY YEAR BY AT LEAST A DOZEN STATIONS. Joe Bastardi is not only a crook, but clearly an ignorant without any minimal knowledge of even the ABC of climatology. The only thing he is able to do is copying the tables of those inepts incompetents of the WMO, who have a total lack of even the basics of climatology.


Who is he? Wow. At least click on his handle name. From his profile:

Maximiliano is a climatologist specialized in climate and microclimates studies and focused in deep quality checks in historical statistics

Whenever Dr. Masters does a blog post about temperature records...^this man, this is who he cites. So, I'd say that he's a pretty big name in temperature verification.

Here's his website: Link with handy dandy footnotes on temperature readings he has doubts on. When Chris Burt (WU's weather historian) does blogs, he often consults with Mr. Herrera.

He also contributes to Wikipedia here, where his bio states he is a "professional climatologist."

So, please, learn who you're talking to before saying something. His qualifications and expertise allow him to state his opinion on the bureaucracy that is the WMO...even if you may find it harsh.

That's all I have to say on that matter.
Quoting 84. Misanthroptimist:


New Horizons will have a good deal of my attention next week, too.


Click pic to embiggen.


Mom is an astronomy major and a planetarium showperson...and she will NOT stop TALKING about Pluto! :(

Quoting 23. BaltimoreBrian:


Don't do what? ;)


*narrows eyes*
Quoting 53. pablosyn:

How identify an El Niño?

July 10th 2015.






Also a good way,



Quoting 86. Astrometeor:

I wanted to post this, I know I am a bit late...contribute that to playing games with my brother and viciously eating watermelon. The watermelon weren't vicious, I was...to the watermelon. Forget it.

Here was what started the whole debate between webber and Misanthroptimist (gosh that's hard to spell, I liked Birthmark better).



I'm not sure anyone really took notice to this comment. I'll explain. The commenter below posted this:



Who is he? Wow. At least click on his handle name. From his profile:

Maximiliano is a climatologist specialized in climate and microclimates studies and focused in deep quality checks in historical statistics

Whenever Dr. Masters does a blog post about temperature records...^this man, this is who he cites. So, I'd say that he's a pretty big name in temperature verification.

Here's his website: Link with handy dandy footnotes on temperature readings he has doubts on. When Chris Burt (WU's weather historian) does blogs, he often consults with Mr. Herrera.

He also contributes to Wikipedia here, where his bio states he is a "professional climatologist."

So, please, learn who you're talking to before saying something. His qualifications and expertise allow him to state his opinion on the bureaucracy that is the WMO...even if you may find it harsh.

That's all I have to say on that matter.


Good catch!
Quoting 75. sar2401:

LOL. Beer. You even been to Empire, up by the Black Rock Desert? I got stuck there for a couple of hours in the early 80's. The gypsum plant was still operating then, and it was company town with about 400 people. The only gas station has a big sign that says "Welcome to Nowhere" so that give you a pretty good idea of the amenities. There was a two hour dust storm that no one could drive through so there was a bunch of us stuck in the convenience store/bar/slot machine casino. There was lots of beer drunk that evening. The dust storm just suddenly died and five minutes later that worst hail storm I've ever seen commenced. It went on for 45 minutes with hail stones the size of silver dollars and covered the ground at least 1 foot deep. When the storm stopped, the setting sun broke through. It was the most amazing view of the Nevada desert I've ever seen. I have some slides stored away I'll have dig up. People who think the desert is bland and boring have never been in the right place at the right time.


Family thinks I'm mad for living here. I'm mad for living here, all right. :)
Quoting 87. Astrometeor:



Mom is an astronomy major and a planetarium showperson...and she will NOT stop TALKING about Pluto! :(

I understand her interest well.
Quoting 32. Bucsboltsfan:



The Pacific is lit up like a Christmas tree while the Atlantic is like a dark room.
You guys are going to regret that next month.
Quoting 86. Astrometeor:

I wanted to post this, I know I am a bit late...contribute that to playing games with my brother and viciously eating watermelon. The watermelon weren't vicious, I was...to the watermelon. Forget it.

Here was what started the whole debate between webber and Misanthroptimist (gosh that's hard to spell, I liked Birthmark better).



I'm not sure anyone really took notice to this comment. I'll explain. The commenter below posted this:



Who is he? Wow. At least click on his handle name. From his profile:

Maximiliano is a climatologist specialized in climate and microclimates studies and focused in deep quality checks in historical statistics

Whenever Dr. Masters does a blog post about temperature records...^this man, this is who he cites. So, I'd say that he's a pretty big name in temperature verification.

Here's his website: Link with handy dandy footnotes on temperature readings he has doubts on. When Chris Burt (WU's weather historian) does blogs, he often consults with Mr. Herrera.

He also contributes to Wikipedia here, where his bio states he is a "professional climatologist."

So, please, learn who you're talking to before saying something. His qualifications and expertise allow him to state his opinion on the bureaucracy that is the WMO...even if you may find it harsh.

That's all I have to say on that matter.
I'll only say that was the most unprofessional rant I've ever read from a man who's supposed to be a professional climatologist. From his biography at his human rights website:

Hallo all! I am Maximiliano Herrera from Costa Rica. I have been traveling all my life. I have studied about foreigner politics,human rights and climatology. I like nature, the sea, the sun, i listen music of the 80s. I have traveled around about 100 countries. I speak spanish (latinamerican and iberic)100%, italian 99%, portuguese 70%, english 65%, Thai (50%) and some Laotian. I am 1.75 , 70 Kg of weight, light-brown hair, blue eyes.

I see nothing about his education. It seems he has obsessively been tracking temperature records since the 70's. That's good, and I respect that. I just don't find any evidence he's other than a self-proclaimed climatologist. I'm certainly open to correction if someone can find evidence that differs.
Quoting 81. JeffMasters:



Thanks, I added this sentence:

Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China near where Chan-hom is predicted to strike. Wanda killed 2000 people in China--one of their deadliest typhoons of all-time.

(That's the EM-DAT death toll; I'm sure other sources differ.)

Dr. M.

Yeah, that's official Chinese figure. It was widely known that, in 1956, the Chinese routinely lied about death tolls and damage from storms. The 6,000 figure comes from various NGO's and the UN.
Sar, regarding Post #96 - That reads more like a dating profile.

Let's hope the death toll is officially ZERO this time around.
From Balmer & Wylie's "When Worlds Collide":

"They won't have it. The world won't come to an end; it can't possibly collide with another world, because - well, for one thing, it never has done such a thing before, and for another, they won't have it. Not when you dwell upon the details. They won't have it. Tomorrow there'll be a great swing-back in feeling, Tony. The exchange will open again; business is going on. That's a good thing; I'm glad of it. But there are certain drawbacks.

"The trouble is, men aren't really educated up to the telescope yet, as they are to the microscope. Every one of those men who were just here would believe what the microscope tells them, whether or not they could see it or understand it for themselves. I mean, if a doctor put a bit of cell-tissue from any one of them, and put it under the microscope, and said 'Sorry, but this means you will die,' there isn't a man of them who wouldn't promptly put his affairs in shape.

None of them would ask to look through the microscope himself; he'd know it would mean nothing to him."

...

"It's ridiculous. They've been fighting about their fool figures for generations. They can't even tell whether it's going to rain or not tomorrow. How in the hell can they say this is going to happen? Give a scientist one idea, and a lot of trick figures, and he goes haywire, that's all..."

"Tony shook his head. Every word to which he had listened surfeited him with a sense of the immobility of humanity. Each individual related a cosmic circumstance to his particular case. Each individual planned to act independently not only of the rest of his fellows but of all signs and portents in the sky. Tony's mind conceived a picture of huge cities on the verge of inundation - cities in which thousands and even millions refused to budge and went about the infinitesimal affairs of their little lives selfishly, with nothing but resentment for the facts which wiser men were futilely attempting to impress upon them."
Quoting 95. StormTrackerScott:



I'm the guy on the left with a cocktail. Patrap is the guy in the brown suit. Webberweather is the one calling the meeting, Astro is the guy next to me like what the heck is going on.
You do know the guy in the brown suit is Marlon Brando, The Godfather, right?

No females? Just as well. TWC would probably want wu ladies to dress like the on-air female Weather Channel people. And they'd script us girls because, of course, none of us has anything intelligent to say about weather. lpl

According to the Los Angeles Times story,
"The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate."
Mike Bettes, good. Time slot, bad. Wu members blog at work, but watching TV on the job may not be as easy. Wonder if they envision Mike Bettes moderating a show like "The View" with bar stools? Does The Weather Company understand the long-standing tradition of wunderground's young, brilliant minds not of legal age to drink, some still in high school?

Telling, the final two paragraphs in LA Times' tale, the quote from Pres. David Clark. Of course he knows drama grabs viewers - fights, seduction, negotiation. lpl. But I doubt that's what they have in mind.
@post 74 on TWC:

Hook me up with an earpiece, Pat, I'm going on TV.

I still think the show is going to flounder. Oh well. I've never seen WxGeeks, because they had the bright idea to put it in the time slot of church...And at college I'm asleep at that hour. Not real commitment.

Edit: Messed that quote up, lol.
Quoting 100. Barefootontherocks:

Wu members blog at work, but watching TV on the job may not be as easy. Wonder if they envision Mike Bettes moderating a show like "The View" with bar stools? Does The Weather Company understand the long-standing tradition of wunderground's young, brilliant minds not of legal age to drink, some still in high school?

Telling, the final two paragraphs in LA Times' tale, the quote from Pres. David Clark.

Of course he knows drama grabs viewers - fights, seduction, negotiation. lpl. But I doubt that's what they have in mind.


Agree on the women and the bad time slot.

Just because some of us (including me) aren't of age, doesn't stop us from drinking Barefoot. ;)
Quoting 102. Astrometeor:



Agree on the women and the bad time slot.

Just because some of us (including me) aren't of age, doesn't stop us from drinking Barefoot. ;)
Not my kuleana to stop anyone from drinking illegally. What you do is your business, Astro. Your life, you live it. My intent is to give TWC a heads up and potentially save them the embarrassment of having minors on TV sitting on bar stools even pretending to drink alcohol.
Quoting 103. Barefootontherocks:

Not my kuleana to stop anyone from drinking illegally. What you do is your business, Astro. Your life, you live it. My intent is to give TWC a heads up and potentially save them the embarrassment of having minors on TV sitting on bar stools even pretending to drink alcohol.


Oh. I see what you mean.

I prefer sparkling grape, non-alcoholic juice over alcohol.

Night Barefoot, night blog.
Link
Link
Latest images of Chan-hom
Quoting 103. Barefootontherocks:

(snipped it) My intent is to give TWC a heads up and potentially save them the embarrassment of having minors on TV sitting on bar stools even pretending to drink alcohol.
Of course the story of how TWC gets to the realization that brilliant minor wu members exist - and how the youngsters fared as they moved on into adulthood would make a good show. I'll shut up now.
Not getting paid for smart ideas is not smart.

Quoting 83. ColoradoBob1:

Jakobshavn Glacier Calving June 20th 2015

1 to 1.5 km wide calving event.

Just watch this , Jakobshavn Glacier Calving June 20th 2015 at 5 min. watch very close. You will see melt water burst to the surface . In huge feature and just keeps pouring out melt water till the end of the video.
Link
Bob,
That dark blue feature you point out at Minute 5 and continuing is not melt water. It is an overturned section of a calved piece of ice. That's why it is so stable in appearance. What is extraordinary is the rate of speed at which it is moving down the fiord. Jacobshavn appears to be the Usain Bolt of glaciers. :) 
Unlike that Mars One project. This one I believe... Good for NASA and I hope it happens. Can't wait to see humans on mars.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/nasa-mars- commercial-flights-astronauts/index.html

Link

Nice thing is the rovers have a lot of WEATHER data to help them prepare.
As of 1 hour ago:


Monterey buoy hit 66.2 F at 5:50 this evening. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 70 pop up this summer, which would be a first north of Point Conception.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

While everyone is talking heat down in Antarctica temps are expected to fall to -110 over the next day.

It's called 'winter' and said temp is so not remarkable for much of the interior.
Quoting 109. LAbonbon:

As of 1 hour ago:





That is one massive storm...
I wonder if China had tried to use cloud seeding to weaken or destroy Winnie, and inadvertently caused it to form that gigantic freak eyewall.....
This is an interesting wind map, probably now about middle of the night now in the Shanghai area. 11am here in Europe.
Winds seem to be about 40 MPH now and coming directly in from the East.
Things look like they are going to get really bad in the next 12 hours with the high tides adding to the problems.

Link

The storm surge is going to be a real challenge and I don't know but what is going to happen if it gets over the defences?
This is the 24 hours from now surface winds projection for the Shanghai area.
Its not just Shanghai, its the whole of those inlets and costal cities at risk. This will be a very dangerous situation over the next 36 hours.
I'm wondering what kind of advise the government is giving out to the residents if any beyond a basic warning. Imagine the panic that might be unfolding in the area, with the risks of storm surge and flooding.

Link
Quoting 115. PlazaRed:

This is the 24 hours from now surface winds projection for the Shanghai area.
Its not just Shanghai, its the whole of those inlets and costal cities at risk. This will be a very dangerous situation over the next 36 hours.
I'm wondering what kind of advise the government is giving out to the residents if any beyond a basic warning. Imagine the panic that might be unfolding in the area, with the risks of storm surge and flooding.

Link
Morning, Plaza. I hope there isn't the kind of last minute panic that leads to major problems. However there didn't seem to be much preparation going on yesterday.... :o/
I see that Chan-hom is headed almost directly at Shanghai. Although it is forecast to make landfall as a weaker typhoon, rain bands are already impacting the area, and are only going to get worse. Also, there is a possibilility that it could affect the Korean Peninsula as well, although it will have weakened to a weak tropical storm or depression by then.

Meanwhile, there are three tropical depressions active in the Central Pacific as of 0900 UTC. Two of them (01C, 02C) were designated as a TD just now. None of them are expected to affect land areas during the next 5 days.
Quoting 116. BahaHurican:

Morning, Plaza. I hope there isn't the kind of last minute panic that leads to major problems. However there didn't seem to be much preparation going on yesterday.... :o/

Morning, Baha,
I agree with you on that as far as I can see plus it might not be advantageous to the government to hype this up too much as they have nowhere to put people other than on airplanes.
Added to this I also think the population is well over 25 million in the areas affected and maybe more like 50 million.

I was in New York last month and looking at the topology of the area in the photos of the Shanghai area it seems a very similar place.
Lots of low land and islands, inlets etc.
Imagine something like this being a day away from New York and the picture gets really frightening, so the government must be really worried.
Their plan might be to claim it was a lot stronger than they thought after the event.
I can see no way that this is not going to be very bad and if the storm surge gets over the defences then that might be another major on-going problem similar to the Katrina event in New Orleans. In fact this could be China's Karina.
Even if the storm surge does not come up over the defences, surly a lot of wind driven waves will pour over.
According to some articles I just read a part of shanghai is in fact below sea level already and sinking fast due to earth movements and water extractions.
Quoting 116. BahaHurican:

Morning, Plaza. I hope there isn't the kind of last minute panic that leads to major problems. However there didn't seem to be much preparation going on yesterday.... :o/


Update: There is still no preparation or any worry around Shanghai. So there you go. Also, rain bands haven't quite reached us yet.


Meanwhile, in the central Atlantic ....

Interesting ...

Slight chance that the ECAR will get some precipitation from this?
Quoting 119. galvestonhurricane:



Update: There is still no preparation or any worry around Shanghai. So there you go.
What is your situation? Are you able to take precautions?
At risk of getting censored, the Chinese government did an extraordinarily poor job informing people about Chan-hom. I'm not worried about my own safety, but there are still a lot of poor people living in basements in the city or in weak structures in low-lying coastal areas.

Do y'all know when high tide is in Shanghai, specifically in regards to the storm's peak impact in Shanghai?
I guess they're counting on the storm weakening before landfall to save them... but that is no help against the surge ... especially with a storm this large ...
TODAY'S TIDE TIMES FOR SHANGHAI, CHINA
Next HIGH TIDE in Shanghai is at 7:33 PM, which is in 2 hr 17 min 01 s from now.

Next LOW TIDE in Shanghai is at 2:48 AM, which is in 9 hr 32 min 01 s from now.

The local time in Shanghai is 5:15:59 PM. See the detailed Shanghai tide chart and tide table below.

- See more at: http://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Shanghai-Ch ina/tides/latest#sthash.yYKi6SdI.dpuf
Quoting 122. galvestonhurricane:

At risk of getting censored, the Chinese government did an extraordinarily poor job informing people about Chan-hom. I'm not worried about my own safety, but there are still a lot of poor people living in basements in the city or in weak structures in low-lying coastal areas.

Do y'all know when high tide is in Shanghai, specifically in regards to the storm's peak impact in Shanghai?
You stay safe! Must be pretty cool to be where you can experience an unusual event like this...
Quoting 123. BahaHurican:

I guess they're counting on the storm weakening before landfall to save them... but that is no help against the surge ... especially with a storm this large ...


True. Hurricane Ike was 'just' a 110 mph cat 2 at landfall in Texas, but it had been stronger out at sea, and was 600 miles wide. Could be similar situation here.
Looks like the worst of the storm surge will be at low tide.
I have a quick question.
Are Chan-hom and Nangka close enough to experience the Fujiwhara effect?
Quoting 127. Forsaken:

Looks like the worst of the storm surge will be at low tide.

The next calculation must be a combination of when the storm is due to be in the Shanghai area and the time of the high tide.

Having said that with a storm of this size the storm surges will last for a long time not just an hour of two around the time when the centre of the storm is directly over the area.

I'm sure that soon somebody with the know how will be posting a chart of the storm and the tides combined, wish I knew how to do it.

I am wanting to be optimistic here but at the same time we have to be realistic about the potential dangers, otherwise we will be taking the same route as their government seem to be doing, of ignoring things and hoping they either go away, or don't bother us too much.


00z GFS
Quoting 127. Forsaken:

Looks like the worst of the storm surge will be at low tide.
If tide is high now, it'll be high again in about 12 hours ... and again about this time tomorrow... looks like landfall will be 18 to 24 hours from now ... still iffy ...
Quoting 129. Bobbyweather:

I have a quick question.
Are Chan-hom and Nangka close enough to experience the Fujiwhara effect?

Not atm ... we would already have seen some effects if so. The wiki page on this is fairly informative, actually.
Quoting 122. galvestonhurricane:

At risk of getting censored, the Chinese government did an extraordinarily poor job informing people about Chan-hom. I'm not worried about my own safety, but there are still a lot of poor people living in basements in the city or in weak structures in low-lying coastal areas.

Do y'all know when high tide is in Shanghai, specifically in regards to the storm's peak impact in Shanghai?

Dutch newspaper article stating the Chinese evacuated 60.000 in anticipation of Chan-Hom. Train lines, airports are being shut down. But nothing on Shanghai proper.
Quoting 135. BahaHurican:

Not atm ... we would already have seen some effects if so. The wiki page on this is fairly informative, actually.

Actually I've already taken a look at the article. It seems that the two storms are farther away than I thought. (Calculations indicate they are nearly 2000 km apart)
Looks like landfall will occur about 2 p.m. Shanghai time, which is around low tide.

This was actually posted by Dr. Maue yesterday..TWC isn't doing so hot..



Shanghai is twelve hours ahead of Eastern Daylight Time. According to the map posted by Baha, initial landfall will be near Taizhou, then the storm will move slowly northward,crossing Shanghai 12 hours later. This won't be a short-duration event; waters will be piling up against the coast and into both Hangzhou Bay and the Yangtze River delta for a span of time encompassing many hours.

Bottom line: expect a lot of damage...
Quoting 134. BahaHurican:

If tide is high now, it'll be high again in about 12 hours ... and again about this time tomorrow... looks like landfall will be 18 to 24 hours from now ... still iffy ...

The wind map for 24 hours from now indicates that the storm will be directly south of Shanghai.
it may be good news for the Shanghai area but there are also a lot of other coastal towns to be affected

Link
Quoting 70. Misanthroptimist:


As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.


I remember Cristopher Burt doing a post about this Antarctic record and the legitimately suspect historical records in Death Valley and Israel among others.

The question about the Antarctic record is that the new ones were recorded in the West Antarctic Peninsula which is actually a group of islands connected by ice. (although in denierville it isn't considered part of "global ice") The temp measurements are legit, it is the question of what makes it a continental record or not. According to the weird map shown earlier with "zone 7" it includes West Antarctica and likely other surrounding islands where even higher temps have been recorded. So looking at the weird map it appears Max is right about that one.

The 134F definitely looks suspicious considering surrounding readings and 129F is likely the real record. The record temperature reading from Israel doesn't pass the smell test so I think there is a reading from Pakistan which is likely the real record. The other records Max called fake I am not that familiar with them.

So even though the comments by Max, as Sar says are unprofessional, I think he maybe right about most if not all of the records despite the lack of tact. As far as the rest of it goes, what I have seen of "BigJoe" is misleading and/or dishonest. To put it bluntly, I think he is a charlatan. The people at WMO being "incompetent" I don't know anything about them so I would give them the benefit of the doubt. I do agree that their records need updating regarding the ones that Max cites. (at least the ones I know)
Added this to the post:

Low tide in Shanghai is at 07:07 UTC Saturday, about the time that Chan-hom is forecast to make landfall. That is potentially good news for the coastal region near the landfall point. However, high tide is at 12:48 UTC Saturday, at a time when the center of Chan-hom is predicted to be over land but just south of the city, pushing water into the city. Fortunately, this high tide is not a very high one--high tides late next week will be more than two feet higher than this. Though Chan-hom will be weakening as it approaches Shanghai during Saturday's high tide, JTWC is predicting the storm will still be at Category 1 strength. If Chan-hom follows the JTWC track and intensity forecast, it will be capable of pushing a record-size storm surge into the city during this 12:48 UTC Saturday high tide, potentially challenging the 1-in-200 year water levels observed during Typhoon Winnie of 1997. I've read several studies explaining how storm surge propagation in the Yellow Sea is extremely complicated, so I am unsure just how the great the risk is from this storm without seeing data from a sophisticated real-time storm surge model, though.

Dr. M.
Happy 42nd Independence Day, Bahamas!

Currently 81 degrees with scattered clouds ... super weather!
Quoting 139. ncstorm:

This was actually posted by Dr. Maue yesterday..TWC isn't doing so hot..




good its 80% commercials and 20% reality tv shows
Looks like Chan-Hom is losing it's structure rather quickly.  Cold tops warming rapidly on it's north quadrant right in conjunction with where very cool SST lay.  Though Surge will still be a large problem, it looks as if Chan-Hom will not be as initially feared.  Wouldn't be surprised to see it less than a 65 kt storm status upon landfall.  We'll have to see if this trend continues.


For those using the corrected version of the CFSv2 you should see the margin of error already. We are at 1.5C while the corrected version says we should be at 1.2C. That's a 0.3C variance right from the point of initialization.


ESPI is back rising back rapidly. Probably due to all these Tropical Cyclones across the W-Pac and now C-Pac.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.48
Looks like Chan-hom won't be the doom and gloom typhoon that the Euro or GFS was forecasting.Both models have over reacted in the past with pressures and wind speed.The Euro showed Fiona as a Cat 5 storm moving into S.C with 165 mph winds and the GFS showed what would be Irene going to Florida as a cat 5 storm moving into Tampa Bay.None of that came to fruition as history would show (and as we witnessed) thankfully .
Ugh, it continues...
Quoting 151. washingtonian115:

Looks like Chan-hom won't be the doom and gloom typhoon that the Euro or GFS was forecasting.Both models have over reacted in the past with pressures and wind speed.The Euro showed Fiona as a Cat 5 storm moving into S.C with 165 mph winds and the GFS showed what would be Irene going to Florida as a cat 5 storm moving into Tampa Bay.None of that came to fruition as history would show (and as we witnessed) thankfully .


Every year, it seems the GFS shows phantom hurricanes hitting Tampa Bay. Usually, it tends to ramp up the ghost storms into Tampa around mid September through October.
Quoting 139. ncstorm:

This was actually posted by Dr. Maue yesterday..TWC isn't doing so hot..




Of course, none of those other networks were booted off a major carrier for reasons of greed as TWC was by Direct TV, so the slighly larger loss of subscribers is no shock to those who know. But, yeah, with just 90 million subscribers--and the nations #1 and #3 weather websites, with millions of monthly page views--I hope TWC can muddle through somehow... 😀
Quoting 153. tampabaymatt:



Every year, it seems the GFS shows phantom hurricanes hitting Tampa Bay. Usually, it tends to ramp up the ghost storms into Tampa around mid September through October.
I'm surprised we haven't seen as many ghost hurricanes in the N.W caribbean as much as we did the previous years.
Quoting 157. washingtonian115:

I'm surprised we haven't seen as many ghost hurricanes in the N.W caribbean as much as we did the previous years.


Agree, there were a couple showing up early on but the models have really quieted down - and rightfully so.
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:

For those using the corrected version of the CFSv2 you should see the margin of error already. We are at 1.5C while the corrected version says we should be at 1.2C. That's a 0.3C variance right off from the start.





We're still @ +1.4C in the weeklies from OISSTv2...
Link

Instead of cherry-picking the PDF corrected CFS that adjusts its original & over amplified forecasts to actual historical observations, if you've actually tried to build a long-term ENSO index to rank El Nino/La Ninas, you'll quickly find that monthly data is way too noisy, especially before 1875 & during WW II when observations are sparse & we have to rely on EOTs to reconstruct the SST fields... Tri-monthly, pentad averages, & ensemble means of quasi-independently derived datasets are seriously needed to filter/smooth out smaller-scale variance/noise that doesn't represent (but certainly may contribute to) ENSO.

Take the following graphic below for example, notice HADISST 1, ERSSTv2, LDEO, CODAS, HADSST 1, TOHOKU, COBEv1 NINO 3.4 SSTs (1850-Present) Yasunaka & Hanawa. Lots of old school SST datasets... I wish I could find all of these sets, even though many of them are old, they are truly invaluable for inter-comparison purposes, specifically for analyzing how our perception of the ENSO record has changed over time with the upgrades to the bias corrections, resolution, quality control, filtering, in-filling, & input of more observations, etc. within each succeeding dataset.

um DirectV had nothing to do with subscribers tired of the content played on a weather channel that had nothing to do with weather..I mean its nothing like turning on the TV to see information about severe weather and seeing a show called Prospectors

But the Wallstreet Journal is just some unreliable business source displaying metrics of lost subscribers so nothing to see here..everything is well in TWC land..
Looks like target practice.

May the weakening continue swiftly -



new invest 98E STORMS EVERYWHERE
Quoting 159. Webberweather53:


We're still @ +1.4C in the weeklies from OISSTv2...
Link
Instead of cherry-picking the PDF corrected CFS that adjusts its original & over amplified forecasts to actual historical observations, if you've actually tried to build a long-term ENSO index to rank El Nino/La Ninas, you'll quickly find that monthly data is way too noisy, especially before 1875 & during WW II when observations are sparse & we have to rely on EOTs to reconstruct the SST fields... Tri-monthly, pentad averages, & ensemble means of quasi-independently derived datasets are seriously needed to filter/smooth out smaller-scale variance/noise that doesn't represent (but certainly may contribute to) ENSO.
Take the following graphic below for example, notice HADISST 1, ERSSTv2, LDEO, CODAS, HADSST 1, TOHOKU, COBEv1 NINO 3.4 SSTs (1850-Present) Yasunaka & Hanawa. Lots of old school SST datasets... I wish I could find all of these sets, even though many of them are old, they are truly invaluable for inter-comparison purposes, specifically for analyzing how our perception of the ENSO record has changed over time with the upgrades to the bias corrections, resolution, quality control, filtering, in-filling, & input of more observations, etc. within each succeeding dataset.



It's evident if a sliding base period was applied to account for the underlying warming signal in the tropical Pacific since the mid-late 19th century, that the 1877-78 El Nino was similar in terms of amplitude to the 1982-83 & 1997-98 El Ninos...

This notion is also confirmed if you look @ the monthly records from a multitude of ENSO indices, 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98 utterly dominate the record counts (in bold, italics, w/ bigger font), hence why I refer to those events as "Super" El Ninos, they're statistically different from other contemporary strong El Ninos...
This year set a new record for highest monthly NINO 4 SST in April, & was practically tied with 1941 in May in HADISST1

HURRICANE DENNIS - 10 Years ago

July 10, 2005: Hurricane Dennis makes landfall on Santa Rosa Island, FL, just east of Pensacola, FL. Winds near 120MPH. Navarre Beach, FL devastated.

Dennis was the second CAT3 hurricane to hit the Pensacola region in less than 10 months. Hurricane Ivan devastated much of the same area on September 16, 2004, and the FL Panhandle was still recovering from the major hurricane, when Dennis roared ashore.

Dennis was preceded by Hurricane Cindy, and also followed by major Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season was one of the worst ever along the US Gulf Coast, with hurricane force winds recorded in all 5 Gulf Coast states!

  • Linfa goes poof -





Ela looks like a goner as well -



Now we have 8 storms in the Pacific region.
This is looking like 10 green bottles on a wall, in reverse.
I am wondering what is the highest number of storms in the Pacific ever recorded?

Quoting 161. hydrus:

Looks like target practice.




10 green bottles standing on a wall in reverse.
I'm wondering what is the largest number of storms recorded at one time in the Northern Pacific?
Quoting 160. ncstorm:

um DirectV had nothing to do with subscribers tired of the content played on a weather channel that had nothing to do with weather..I mean its nothing like turning on the TV to see information about severe weather and seeing a show called Prospectors

But the Wallstreet Journal is just some unreliable business source displaying metrics of lost subscribers so nothing to see here..everything is well in TWC land..


I didn't realize the Direct TV subscribers voted in channel lineups, I always though it was a negotiation between cable provider and channel.

Anyways, The Wall Street Journal article states that about 3.2 million of total subscriber loss accounts for cord-cutters, or people who downgrade to non premium service packages. Another caveat to these numbers are the viewership rates of young adults, who compared to 2011 have on average 3.9 million less television watchers. This downward trend across television has been overall quite evident, even in national network television with the top rated television programming only pulling in 7 to 8 million viewers, compared to almost triple that in the 70's.

I think the graph is overall indicative of people leaving cable in droves, Netflix now boasts 40 million subscribers. The old television model is not built for the future. And of course, this is not to say personal preference did not play a role in the large losses in viewership to TWC, just that it is way more complex than just claiming TWC sucks.
Quoting 167. PlazaRed:

Now we have 8 storms in the Pacific region.
This is looking like 10 green bottles on a wall, in reverse.
I am wondering what is the highest number of storms in the Pacific ever recorded?



10 green bottles standing on a wall in reverse.
I'm wondering what is the largest number of storms recorded at one time in the Northern Pacific?


Some of these are dead, and I wouldn't count the invests just yet either.
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic...

Chan-hom has the "unraveling" look going on, not uncommon for storms in its position. Still powerful, but steadily weakening. Very cool to look at, and of course great news for China, there will no doubt be some damage but this is not a worst-case scenario. Favorable tides will help as well.



Nangka has weakened significantly, but it will be around for plenty of time to come, likely another 5-7 days. Intensity will fluctuate, should keep coming down in the short term but may restrengthen later. Massive ACE producer.

Am I the only one that thinks it's nice that they let Treebeard name a typhoon? "Chan-hom, rather hasty for a typhoon name, but if I gave its name in Entish the storm would be over by the time I finished saying it."
Quoting 170. GeoffreyWPB:

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic...




Thing of beauty - however we are 60 days away from the heat of the action.

Quoting 168. Naga5000:



I didn't realize the Direct TV subscribers voted in channel lineups, I always though it was a negotiation between cable provider and channel.

Anyways, The Wall Street Journal article states that about 3.2 million of total subscriber loss accounts for cord-cutters, or people who downgrade to non premium service packages. Another caveat to these numbers are the viewership rates of young adults, who compared to 2011 have on average 3.9 million less television watchers. This downward trend across television has been overall quite evident, even in national network television with the top rated television programming only pulling in 7 to 8 million viewers, compared to almost triple that in the 70's.

I think the graph is overall indicative of people leaving cable in droves, Netflix now boasts 40 million subscribers. The old television model is not built for the future. And of course, this is not to say personal preference did not play a role in the large losses in viewership to TWC, just that it is way more complex than just claiming TWC sucks.


His exact quote was "TWC isn't doing so hot". Unless I missed something, I don't see where he said that TWC sucks. Regardless of how it transpired, I don't think an 11% decrease in subscribers is good news for any TV station.
Quoting 170. GeoffreyWPB:

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic...




Looks like march...
Moving from east to west across the Pacific, in the east there is 97E and 98E. NOAA doesn't a floater on 98E yet. It is along the coast of Central America, it could bring heavy rains along the coast of Mexico. Moving into the Central Pacific where 04E Ela is now..this storm has a chance of impacting the far west islands of Hawaii as a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm in 4-5 days. 02C should pass well south of Hawaii. 01C has gained some convection back but remains a shallow storm in open waters. Nangka is in the West Pacific moving slowly, it should remain a Typhoon for the next five days but it's hard to say exactly where it will go after that and interacting with a front. Chan-Hom has begun to weaken, after peaking at 915mb according to Dvorak, but is still a very large storm with atleast 110kt winds, it is already beginning to affect Shanghai. Not only is this a very strong and large windstorm coming in around a huge concentration of people, this maybe a real test of that major city's storm surge protection wall. Linfa died on impact. Despite a hurricane hunter finding Cat 1 shortly before landfall people overall thought the storm forecast over blown in Hong Kong because the city had shut down for the day and the storm weakened so fast that the only damage was a few fallen trees. Economic damage estimates were in the Millions from the lost day of work. For more models click here.

There is some wundercams in my blog that Chan-Hom has begun affecting as well as more on some of the other storms.
Quoting 173. FrostyNaples:



Thing of beauty - however we are 60 days away from the heat of the action.





what are you not getting the Atlantic is closed dos not matter if we are 60 days a way the heat of the action we are not going too be seeing nothing in the Atlantic any time soon may be the rest of the season if we see any thing this season it will be closeder to home that is where you need too loook not the Atlantic the Caribbean Sea is all so closed for the season the olny place to look for storms this year is in the gulf or off the E cost other wise this is going too be a vary slow season for many


the W E and C PAC are the place to be this season if you want the real action
Quoting 172. Misanthroptimist:

Am I the only one that thinks it's nice that they let Treebeard name a typhoon? "Chan-hom, rather hasty for a typhoon name, but if I gave its name in Entish the storm would be over by the time I finished saying it."


Good, but I like Patrap's question a few days ago "phon-hom?"
Quoting 175. CaribBoy:



Looks like march...
The fact last October had a Cat 4 in the Atlantic proves we must have patience with the season.
Quoting 168. Naga5000:



I didn't realize the Direct TV subscribers voted in channel lineups, I always though it was a negotiation between cable provider and channel.

Anyways, The Wall Street Journal article states that about 3.2 million of total subscriber loss accounts for cord-cutters, or people who downgrade to non premium service packages. Another caveat to these numbers are the viewership rates of young adults, who compared to 2011 have on average 3.9 million less television watchers. This downward trend across television has been overall quite evident, even in national network television with the top rated television programming only pulling in 7 to 8 million viewers, compared to almost triple that in the 70's.

I think the graph is overall indicative of people leaving cable in droves, Netflix now boasts 40 million subscribers. The old television model is not built for the future. And of course, this is not to say personal preference did not play a role in the large losses in viewership to TWC, just that it is way more complex than just claiming TWC sucks.



You cant stream weather through Netflix so I'm pretty positive Netflix didnt play a role in TWC losing viewership because of its own increase in member subscriptions.

When Directv originally cut their ties to the cable company it was because of viewers complaints and no one wanted to pay for a channel that didnt offer programming that is was supposedly advertising..

Even TWC when they partnered back with Directv stated they would offer more weather and cut down on the "extra" programming that drove viewers away..

So young adults, netflix or any other excuses might be a small part in TWC loss of viewers but the majority of why it lost subscribers because it suck in 2011 and still does..
Even Bill was doing the most in August of 2009.
Rapidly developing Kelvin Wave beneath 180W to 160W. This new wave could be end up being the strongest we've seen all year. We went from a nice upwelling phase just 2 weeks ago to a pretty stout Downwelling phase.

Quoting 180. ncstorm:




You cant stream weather through Netflix so I'm pretty positive Netflix didnt play a role in TWC losing viewership because of its own increase in member subscriptions.

When Directv originally cut their ties to the cable company it was because of viewers complaints and no one wanted to pay for a channel that didnt offer programming that is was supposedly advertising..

Even TWC when they partnered back with Directv stated they would offer more weather and cut down on the "extra" programming that drove viewers away..

So young adults, netflix or any other excuses might be a small part in TWC loss of viewers but the majority of why it lost subscribers because it suck in 2011 and still does..



Whatever you say, champ. The breakdown between DirectTV and TWC was over fees per customer, it would have never even been made public if it hadn't become such a big deal, the displeasure over TWC's programming came after the negotiations failed. Out of the 20 million homes effected by the DirectTV snub, it looks like number wise, most of them did not stop watching after it came back...

But whatever, I don't watch the TWC because more information is readily available online or better information through local outlets, but I am still a subscriber because it is forced on me through my cable package.
On this date in 2005, 10 years ago Hurricane Dennis made landfall at Santa Rosa Island at 2:25 PM CDT, between Pensacola and Navarre Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The highest official wind speed reported was a 121 mph (195 km/h) wind gust at Navarre Beach. Dennis produced a storm surge of 9 feet in Apalachee Bay, caused 10 tornadoes in the Southeast, and produced a maximum rainfall total of 12.80 inches in Camden, Alabama. At the time Dennis set a new record for the strongest storm prior to August, but was later surpassed by Hurricane Emily six days later. This would set off a string of hurricanes that season making it the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season on record.





Quoting 174. tampabaymatt:



His exact quote was "TWC isn't doing so hot". Unless I missed something, I don't see where he said that TWC sucks. Regardless of how it transpired, I don't think an 11% decrease in subscribers is good news for any TV station.


I made no comment about it being good news or bad news for TWC, obviously a major decrease in viewership is bad, but a hefty percentage of that comes directly from cord cutters, and see post 180, NC confirms the whole "sucking" that was implied in the original post.
Quoting 180. ncstorm:




You cant stream weather through Netflix so I'm pretty positive Netflix didnt play a role in TWC losing viewership because of its own increase in member subscriptions.

When Directv originally cut their ties to the cable company it was because of viewers complaints and no one wanted to pay for a channel that didnt offer programming that is was supposedly advertising..

Even TWC when they partnered back with Directv stated they would offer more weather and cut down on the "extra" programming that drove viewers away..

So young adults, netflix or any other excuses might be a small part in TWC loss of viewers but the majority of why it lost subscribers because it suck in 2011 and still does..



TWC wasn't in a package by itself .. came on all the standard direct TV packages offered no one had a choice whether they got it or not .. the whole deal was about money that was being charged .. programing was just an excuse ..

Do you know of any one who complained .. I have not heard of anyone and am not sure there is even a way to complain about the programs in the package you decide on !
Quoting 185. GTstormChaserCaleb:

On this date in 2005, 10 years ago Hurricane Dennis made landfall at Santa Rosa Island at 2:25 PM CDT, between Pensacola and Navarre Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The highest official wind speed reported was a 121 mph (195 km/h) wind gust at Navarre Beach. Dennis produced a storm surge of 9 feet in Apalachee Bay, caused 10 tornadoes in the Southeast, and produced a maximum rainfall total of 12.80 inches in Camden, Alabama. At the time Dennis set a new record for the strongest storm prior to August, but was later surpassed by Hurricane Emily six days later. This would set off a string of hurricanes that season making it the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season on record.








Been a long time since we've had that much excitement across the Southern US. Think 2004/2005 was the Peak of the Active era across the Atlantic. Could be another 1 to 2 decades before we see that again type of hyperactivity again.
Quoting 187. whitewabit:



TWC wasn't in a package by itself .. came on all the standard direct TV packages offered no one had a choice whether they got it or not .. the whole deal was about money that was being charged .. programing was just an excuse ..

Do you know of any one who complained .. I have not heard of anyone and am not sure there is even a way to complain about the programs in the package you decide on !


Careful, Wabit, you may just be a shill for "big weather". ;)
Quoting 189. Naga5000:



Careful, Wabit, you may just be a shill for "big weather". ;)


not true .. but programming was secondary in the dispute ..

It was about MONEY and nothing more ..
Quoting 190. whitewabit:



not true .. but programming was secondary in the dispute ..

It was about MONEY and nothing more ..


I agree, which is what I tried to point out earlier. The last post was a joke.

I'm starting to think my jokes aren't very funny to anyone but myself. :)
Quoting 185. GTstormChaserCaleb:

On this date in 2005, 10 years ago Hurricane Dennis made landfall at Santa Rosa Island at 2:25 PM CDT, between Pensacola and Navarre Beach, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The highest official wind speed reported was a 121 mph (195 km/h) wind gust at Navarre Beach. Dennis produced a storm surge of 9 feet in Apalachee Bay, caused 10 tornadoes in the Southeast, and produced a maximum rainfall total of 12.80 inches in Camden, Alabama. At the time Dennis set a new record for the strongest storm prior to August, but was later surpassed by Hurricane Emily six days later. This would set off a string of hurricanes that season making it the most active Atlantic Hurricane Season on record.








2nd most active... :) 1933 is #1
Link



Good Morning. Based upon all of the storms in the Pacific, and the noted inverse relationship between the two basins, the Atl should remain very quiet for the remainder of July as it normally is. In addition to the El Nino, where the rubber meets the road in terms of the inverse relationship is where the E-Pac/W-Pac overlaps into the peak of the Atlantic season. If the Pacific is generating several storms during the Atlantic peak period, the numbers tend to be lower on the Atlantic side and the MJO also plays a part. We will not know how we stand on this issue until 45-60 days from now.

In the short term, it is nice to see that Chan-Hom has ramped down wind wise but storm surge will still be an issue. As noted by Dr., there is no way to know exactly what will happen in terms of the actual levels. This being a rarity for that region, there are no SLOSH studies, like in the US, that can give us an idea of how much surge to actually expect with Chan-Hom.
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 100600Z, TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N
124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 664 NM SOUTH OF YONGSAN AIN, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 100600Z, TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


Here are latest images on Chan-Hom from the Satt sites:


Quoting 186. Naga5000:



I made no comment about it being good news or bad news for TWC, obviously a major decrease in viewership is bad, but a hefty percentage of that comes directly from cord cutters, and see post 180, NC confirms the whole "sucking" that was implied in the original post.


I think you can make the argument that cord cutters wouldn’t be cutting the cord if they were satisfied with the content. The only thing that keeps me from cutting the cord is live sports, but my discontent is mostly with my cable company than the content on TV. The increase in cord cutters is really an interesting thing to watch, and so far it doesn’t appear the cable companies are concerned by it. I don’t see any of them in FL lowering prices or improving their customer service. You can say what you will about TWC, but having a decrease in subscribers of 11% since 2011 is a bad omen for them. Their website might see a lot of traffic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that has decreased since 2011 as well.
198. JRRP
Quoting 163. hurricanes2018:



new invest 98E STORMS EVERYWHERE


lol omG... poor atlantic
In terms of Shanghai Harbor, it is a worst case scenario in terms of the current track with the core passing directly over the mouth of the harbor but thankfully, the winds will die down to the 70-85 knot range per the current forecast:



Quoting 196. tampabaymatt:



I think you can make the argument that cord cutters wouldn’t be cutting the cord if they were satisfied with the content. The only thing that keeps me from cutting the cord is live sports, but my discontent is mostly with my cable company than the content on TV. The increase in cord cutters is really an interesting thing to watch, and so far it doesn’t appear the cable companies are concerned by it. I don’t see any of them in FL lowering prices or improving their customer service. You can say what you will about TWC, but having a decrease in subscribers of 11% since 2011 is a bad omen for them. Their website might see a lot of traffic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that has decreased since 2011 as well.


I remember something about 'local on the 8's' provided by TWC. Might have used it a few times back when I did have an actual cable subscription. But i can say, i never 'watched' TWC. I'm not sure what them mean by 'subscribers', simply having a cable subscription? How would they figure ratings? You must have to actually watch the channel to get ratings information.

In any case, I don't like the term cord cutting, I've still over 300' of copper coming in from the telephone pole to support high speed internet :-)

ITCZ is really ramping up, matter of time oh, matter of time.
Quoting 196. tampabaymatt:



I think you can make the argument that cord cutters wouldn’t be cutting the cord if they were satisfied with the content. The only thing that keeps me from cutting the cord is live sports, but my discontent is mostly with my cable company than the content on TV. The increase in cord cutters is really an interesting thing to watch, and so far it doesn’t appear the cable companies are concerned by it. I don’t see any of them in FL lowering prices or improving their customer service. You can say what you will about TWC, but having a decrease in subscribers of 11% since 2011 is a bad omen for them. Their website might see a lot of traffic, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that has decreased since 2011 as well.


I don't disagree, but content isn't the only issue of course, it has a lot to do with what channels are forced on you. People are beginning to want tailored programming options. Give me ESPN, but you can keep Bravo. Why do I have to pay for it if I don't use it?

Anyways, 5.6 million subscribers were lost when Verion FIOS dropped TWC, so again, once you start adding the numbers up, the 11% drop seems to have not so much to do with consumer choice as it is a combination of different factors.
Quoting 192. Webberweather53:



2nd most active... :) 1933 is #1
Link




Depends on what perspective you take. More storms and landfalls vs. ACE. I think the fact we got into the Greek Alphabet just makes 2005 more memorable and relevant.
And from the Chinese media:


HANGZHOU - China is on highest alert as super typhoon Chan-Hom approaches the eastern coast at high speeds.

The National Meteorological Center issued a red alert, the highest level of alert, on Friday morning for Chan-Hom, whose center was spotted 550 km southeast off the coast of Zhejiang province at 5 am.

The typhoon is moving northwestward from the East China Sea and will land somewhere between Fuding in Fujian province and Xiangshan in Zhejiang province.

The wind speed at the center of the typhoon is forecast to top 58 meters per second at landfall.

In Zhejiang, nearly 20,000 people have been evacuated and 20,000 fishing vessels returned to harbor for shelter. The province upgraded its emergency response by two levels to prepare for the typhoon. Direct shipping routes to Taiwan from Zhejiang have also been suspended since Thursday.

Waves as tall as 10 m were observed in the sea off the coast of Zhejiang.

"The upcoming typhoon seems very powerful. We have sealed all our windows and doors and have stored food," said Liu Yimin, a villager in coastal Huagang village.

Meanwhile, the Wenzhou city government has asked all 53,000 flood control staff in the city to stand by over the weekend.

The Fujian provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters ordered all people on coastal fishing farms in Ningde, Fuzhou, Pingtan and Putian to evacuate by 10 am Friday.

Shanghai also issued a typhoon alert on Friday warning of gales starting Friday afternoon and heavy rain on Saturday.

Typhoon Linfa made landfall on Thursday in the southern province of Guangdong, bringing torrential rain to the coast. No casualties have been reported.

Quoting 201. FrostyNaples:



I remember something about 'local on the 8's' provided by TWC. Might have used it a few times back when I did have an actual cable subscription. But i can say, i never 'watched' TWC. I'm not sure what them mean by 'subscribers', simply having a cable subscription? How would they figure ratings? You must have to actually watch the channel to get ratings information.

In any case, I don't like the term cord cutting, I've still over 300' of copper coming in from the telephone pole to support high speed internet :-)




Subscribers must just mean cable subscribers. To my knowledge, there is not a way to subscribe to watch the TWC individually without a larger cable package. But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see cable companies start to offer more individualized channel packages at lower prices if the cable cutting continues to increase. In that case, a channel like TWC could easily be left out while most people subscribe to ESPN and what not.
"The upcoming typhoon seems very powerful. We have sealed all our windows and doors and have stored food," said Liu Yimin, a villager in coastal Huagang village.

Hopefully, these folks also evacuated. Nice to seal the doors and windows, but that does no good if the surge picks up your house and floats it away.....................................
Quoting 204. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Depends on what perspective you take. More storms and landfalls vs. ACE. I think the fact we got into the Greek Alphabet just makes 2005 more memorable and relevant.


True, I can't recall 1933 as vividly as 2005
Quoting 191. Naga5000:



I agree, which is what I tried to point out earlier. The last post was a joke.

I'm starting to think my jokes aren't very funny to anyone but myself. :)
I thought it was funny ... lol ... oh the incongruity!
Portlight even added input and help resolve the TWC/DirecTV ker-scuffle


For the Public good
By: Portlight , 12:44 PM CST on January 24, 2014

Share this Blog


On January 14, DIRECTV decided to drop The Weather Channel, thereby putting its bottom line ahead of the safety of the 100 million households and businesses who were served by The Weather Channel and relied upon it as a resource during weather emergencies before DIRECTV dropped it. The make-shift weather solution they put in place of The Weather Channel leaves us all much more vulnerable to dangerous weather situations, and puts our most vulnerable citizens at even greater risk.



Vital American industries including disaster relief, emergency management, aviation, ground transportation, insurance, as well as our military, depend on The Weather Channel for real-time and reliable weather information that could affect the safety and performance of their important work. We at Portlight Strategies have depended for years on information from The Weather Channel to plan and carry out our grassroots efforts and keep our partner organizations such as your own fully informed around disasters and recovery.

The Weather Channel also partners directly with emergency response organizations like The American Red Cross, FEMA and NOAA. It supplies these groups with valuable information, and shares life-saving information about how to prepare for, survive and recover from emergencies.



We believe a concerted effort to educate the DIRECTV board of directors about the dangerous outcomes that will undoubtedly result if they don’t reverse their decision.

We ask that you join us for this worthy effort.

Best regards,

Portlight Strategies
Quoting 192. Webberweather53:



2nd most active... :) 1933 is #1

With 28 Named Storms, 15 Hurricanes and 7 Major Hurricanes, 2005 is #1

213. txjac
Quoting 191. Naga5000:



I agree, which is what I tried to point out earlier. The last post was a joke.

I'm starting to think my jokes aren't very funny to anyone but myself. :)




LOL ...I hate when that happens
Quoting 206. tampabaymatt:



Subscribers must just mean cable subscribers. To my knowledge, there is not a way to subscribe to watch the TWC individually without a larger cable package. But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see cable companies start to offer more individualized channel packages at lower prices if the cable cutting continues to increase. In that case, a channel like TWC could easily be left out while most people subscribe to ESPN and what not.
Ironically I'd probably prefer TWC to sports ...
Quoting 206. tampabaymatt:



Subscribers must just mean cable subscribers. To my knowledge, there is not a way to subscribe to watch the TWC individually without a larger cable package. But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see cable companies start to offer more individualized channel packages at lower prices if the cable cutting continues to increase. In that case, a channel like TWC could easily be left out while most people subscribe to ESPN and what not.


To do that the cable companies would have to engineer a device to split out only the channels one would buy in that instance .. might be cost prohibitive to replace all those boxes ..
Quoting 184. Naga5000:



Whatever you say, champ. The breakdown between DirectTV and TWC was over fees per customer, it would have never even been made public if it hadn't become such a big deal, the displeasure over TWC's programming came after the negotiations failed. Out of the 20 million homes effected by the DirectTV snub, it looks like number wise, most of them did not stop watching after it came back...

But whatever, I don't watch the TWC because more information is readily available online or better information through local outlets, but I am still a subscriber because it is forced on me through my cable package.


LOL.."champ"..

Listen, I understand, I would be upset too to hear that my pockets might be affected especially seeing those numbers..$$$$..

I really thought the breakdown was because Directv said it was not going to have customers pay those higher fees because TWC was not providing what it was offering as I am a Directv customer myself..









Quoting 214. BahaHurican:

Ironically I'd probably prefer TWC to sports ...


If there was a way to subscribe to individual channels instead of being forced into a larger cable package, I would probably only need 10 channels. This is a lot less than the 897 or however many I pay for now.
Will also note, on a geopolitical twist, that all those very nice looking sea walls built around the port cities in China, and all the fancy buildings around town, were partially financed by Americans buying products made in China for the last 40 years.....Think about it:

Quoting 203. Naga5000:

Anyways, 5.6 million subscribers were lost when Verion FIOS dropped TWC, so again, once you start adding the numbers up, the 11% drop seems to have not so much to do with consumer choice as it is a combination of different factors.
Indeed. The bottom line is that some will whine and complain about TWC for pretty much any reason. They don't like the graphics, or the programming, or Cantores yelling, or Jen Carfagno's shoes, or whatever. That's to be expected. But sometimes those whiners make broad sweeping statements and unsubstantiated allegations based on nothing more than their own dissatisfaction, which is not just wrong but completely illogical. The simple fact is that the old TV model is dying, and quickly. Fed up with horrible customer service, increasingly higher prices, and convoluted programming packages, people are cutting the cable cord by the thousands. With the exception of perhaps AMC, virtually every cable and broadcast network is losing viewers. That includes ESPN, Discovery, ABC, NBC, and, yes, TWC. So people shouldn't come to the assumption that a particular network losing viewers is because people don't like it. It's not necessarily the channel they don't like, but the company carrying that channel...
Quoting 215. whitewabit:



To do that the cable companies would have to engineer a device to split out only the channels one would buy in that instance .. might be cost prohibitive to replace all those boxes ..


They would? If I change my subscription to add HBO or Showtime (or take them away), my cable company doesn't give me a new box.
The Meat of the TWC/DirecTV was the replacement by DirecTV, from TWC to "WeatherNation", and the terrible CLOSED CAPTIONING they used that did NOT TRANSLATE Weather well at all.

Those who are HEARING disabled who relied on TWC and LOCAL scrolling to receive emg weather info was the root cause,other than "fee's".

It ALSO made WEATHERNATION install and put in place a working closed captioning for their audiences as well.


It was the deciding factor overall.

Quoting 206. tampabaymatt:



Subscribers must just mean cable subscribers. To my knowledge, there is not a way to subscribe to watch the TWC individually without a larger cable package. But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see cable companies start to offer more individualized channel packages at lower prices if the cable cutting continues to increase. In that case, a channel like TWC could easily be left out while most people subscribe to ESPN and what not.
I don't know that TWC is available individually yet, Matt. Maybe they are headed that way. I do know UNBUNDLE is the way of the now and the future - and thanks for that goes to the young adult generation who want simplicity. No frills. Earth kindness. More and more we will be able to subscribe to individual networks that have till now only been bundled. As you note, unbundling is occurring already. Already there are unbundled networks - big ones like HBO - available to individuals on an individual basis with NO cable hook-up (unless your net is cable).

Programming vs. money will soon become programming IS money. Poorly programmed stations will have fewer subscribers, therefore less income than when offered in a bundle. Good product, you get paid well. Bad product, few will want it.
Quoting 187. whitewabit:



TWC wasn't in a package by itself .. came on all the standard direct TV packages offered no one had a choice whether they got it or not .. the whole deal was about money that was being charged .. programing was just an excuse ..

Do you know of any one who complained .. I have not heard of anyone and am not sure there is even a way to complain about the programs in the package you decide on !


!!!

You guys have selective memory..Directv said it was not going to have customers pay higher fees that TWC was proposing when the viewers were complaining about the programming that wasn't being offered

I mean even TWC said it would change their programming to bring back viewers after the talks went through with Directv so is TWC using excuses too?

Quoting 212. Xandra:


With 28 Named Storms, 15 Hurricanes and 7 Major Hurricanes, 2005 is #1




With 259 points of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), 1933 is actually first place... I guess you missed that part.
Link
Directv replaced TWC with weathernation to give viewers what they asked for originally and what TWC failed to give viewers and that was a channel that offered weather only
The loss in overall viewership is from folks switching their viewing to their other devices.

Its happening across all the TV and Movie Theater business.
Quoting 220. tampabaymatt:



They would? If I change my subscription to add HBO or Showtime (or take them away), my cable company doesn't give me a new box.


True they flip a switch and you have what premium channel you want .. but do they have the capabilities for all 300 some channel they have ?? I doubt it does .. so new equipment would have to come on line ..



Weathernation is a inferior product that runs on the free air stations.

Not much weathernation on cable, if you check dat.

: )
This is that lake in OK I've also had in my entries a while. Was about to take it down once the big tree got out of the water. It almost did & then it rained a few days. It's taken a full day for the water to run into it & for it to rise, nearly as high as the peak of the flooding from Bill. Now the shore and neighbor's dock is gone again, as is the soccer goal looking thing next to the tree. Someone brought the boat in some. If it gets much higher the dock farther out goes completely under.
Quoting 225. ncstorm:

Directv replaced TWC with weathernation to give viewers what they asked for originally and TWC failed to give viewers

a channel that offered weather only


did you ever watch it ?? It was pretty lame as far as up to date weather .. you want your forecast for today or tomorrow it was great .. a tornado bearing down on your town .. watch the local news it was faster !!
Quoting 222. Barefootontherocks:

I don't know that TWC is available individually yet, Matt. Maybe they are headed that way. I do know UNBUNDLE is the way of the now and the future - and thanks for that goes to the young adult generation who want simplicity. No frills. Earth kindness. More and more we will be able to subscribe to individual networks that have till now only been bundled. As you note, unbundling is occurring already. Already there are unbundled networks - big ones like HBO - available to individuals on an individual basis with NO cable hook-up (unless your net is cable).

Programming vs. money will soon become programming IS money. Poorly programmed stations will have fewer subscribers, therefore less income than when offered in a bundle. Good product, you get paid well. Bad product, few will want it.
They need to sell # packages ... let consumers pick what they want ... same model as isps use with data blocks ...
We in the US do not have the money, which is tight, to invest the needed billions of dollars to upgrade our infrastructure, including coastal barriers against surge and potential sea level rise in the future, while China has taken American monies and upgraded theirs (and recently buying the Waldorf Astoria in NY for 1.9 Billion). Just sayin.......

America's most famous hotel will soon be under Chinese ownership as the Hilton Hotel group today announced that it would be selling the Waldorf Astoriato a Chinese insurer for $1.95 billion.

The acquisition by China's Anbang Insurance Group set a record for the largest acquisition of a U.S. real estate asset by a Chinese buyer, as well as being the most expensive purchase ever of a U.S. hotel. The price paid for the 1,413 room hotel means Anbang committed approximately $1.4 million per room for the art deco landmark.


The deal also heralds the arrival of China's state-owned insurance companies into the U.S. market, where the country's private companies are already the leading foreign property buyers.

Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

And from the Chinese media:


HANGZHOU - China is on highest alert as super typhoon Chan-Hom approaches the eastern coast at high speeds.

The National Meteorological Center issued a red alert, the highest level of alert, on Friday morning for Chan-Hom, whose center was spotted 550 km southeast off the coast of Zhejiang province at 5 am.

The typhoon is moving northwestward from the East China Sea and will land somewhere between Fuding in Fujian province and Xiangshan in Zhejiang province.

The wind speed at the center of the typhoon is forecast to top 58 meters per second at landfall.

In Zhejiang, nearly 20,000 people have been evacuated and 20,000 fishing vessels returned to harbor for shelter. The province upgraded its emergency response by two levels to prepare for the typhoon. Direct shipping routes to Taiwan from Zhejiang have also been suspended since Thursday.

Waves as tall as 10 m were observed in the sea off the coast of Zhejiang.

"The upcoming typhoon seems very powerful. We have sealed all our windows and doors and have stored food," said Liu Yimin, a villager in coastal Huagang village.

Meanwhile, the Wenzhou city government has asked all 53,000 flood control staff in the city to stand by over the weekend.

The Fujian provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters ordered all people on coastal fishing farms in Ningde, Fuzhou, Pingtan and Putian to evacuate by 10 am Friday.

Shanghai also issued a typhoon alert on Friday warning of gales starting Friday afternoon and heavy rain on Saturday.

Typhoon Linfa made landfall on Thursday in the southern province of Guangdong, bringing torrential rain to the coast. No casualties have been reported.



I have visited Zhiejiang province quite a few times for work, and in my opinion, if it hits around Xiangshan, it will not be pleasant. Further south, the country is hillier, but there it is pretty low and flat and the population density even outside the city is pretty high. It is reasonably built up pretty much all the way from Shanghai down to Xiangshan, with some open country interspersed with a lot of factories and homes. The storm surge could really do a lot of damage, plus from what I have seen there and in Shanghai, wind resistance isn't really considered in the building codes, or at least in the actual buildings. That whole coastal area is full of fairly tall buildings (typically 8 or 13 floor apartment blocks), and I have been told a number of stories about them collapsing or sinking due to developers cutting costs, even without any help from high winds.
Quoting 227. whitewabit:



True they flip a switch and you have what premium channel you want .. but do they have the capabilities for all 300 some channel they have ?? I doubt it does .. so new equipment would have to come on line ..


Yes, they can flip the switch on any of them.

You ever notice when you have a basic cable package, if you reach a channel not included, you usually see a message 'not authorized', etc.

The have absolute control.

You do however need to have an HD set top box or better (DVR, ETC), as the plain old digital converter boxes do not have the same capabilities.

Fundamentally we are simply talking about computers here, everything has an IP address, content is either given or restricted.
Quoting 215. whitewabit:



To do that the cable companies would have to engineer a device to split out only the channels one would buy in that instance .. might be cost prohibitive to replace all those boxes ..


They already do to some extent, which is how you can buy separate premium packages, so the tech is already in their set-top boxes. Presumably we would end up with selecting from a list of a couple of hundred one- or two- channel packages.
Quoting 230. whitewabit:



did you ever watch it ?? It was pretty lame as far as up to date weather .. you want your forecast for today or tomorrow it was great .. a tornado bearing down on your town .. watch the local news it was faster !!


I would watch my local news for severe weather before TWC or weathernation..and yes I watched Weathernation, it was okay but nothing to brag about either..

Quoting 216. ncstorm:



LOL.."champ"..

Listen, I understand, I would be upset too to hear that my pockets might be affected especially seeing those numbers..$$$$..

I really thought the breakdown was because Directv said it was not going to have customers pay those higher fees because TWC was not providing what it was offering as I am a Directv customer myself..












All I was trying to point out is that the big drop was for lots of different reasons, a nuance left out of the graphic which makes it seem like everyone is just leaving the TWC because of programming, which is certainly true for some. I wasn't disagreeing, just adding context. Context good.
Quoting 230. whitewabit:



did you ever watch it ?? It was pretty lame as far as up to date weather .. you want your forecast for today or tomorrow it was great .. a tornado bearing down on your town .. watch the local news it was faster !!

I tuned in to watch for coverage of a tornado outbreak--I can't remember which one last year. But they weren't even covering it! They were giving the forecast for the Southwest!

No thanks, I'll stick with TWC.
Chan Hom's impact is well underway now.


Quoting 186. Naga5000:



I made no comment about it being good news or bad news for TWC, obviously a major decrease in viewership is bad, but a hefty percentage of that comes directly from cord cutters, and see post 180, NC confirms the whole "sucking" that was implied in the original post.


I'm a cord cutter too. I remember when The Weather Channel was all about Weather. Back in the 80's to mid 90's it was pure science and excellent interpretations like a blow-by-blow to what was going on across the nation. It would make for some pretty low viewership with a dry week in February but whenever a noreaster was going on or a storm was forecast to develop, I would overdose on TWC.
Quoting 204. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Depends on what perspective you take. More storms and landfalls vs. ACE. I think the fact we got into the Greek Alphabet just makes 2005 more memorable and relevant.


We also didn't have the monitoring capabilities in the 1930s to detect & name storms that were thousands of miles out to sea & we likely observed significantly more activity than is currently indicated by NOAA. The ACE index is the standard that's used by NOAA to measure the overall activity of a hurricane season, landfalling storms, & actual numbers of storms may be correlated to the general amount of activity, but they comparatively poor measures of how active a hurricane season is (was), since the ACE index takes into account duration, intensity, and the fact that the energy of an air molecule is 1/2 mv^2, with all other factors remaining constant, the incident energy of an air parcel is proportional to the square of the speed of the moving air particle (wind), hence the ACE index is calculated for all tropical cyclones with winds >/= 35 knots to the nearest 5 knots,... squared. Per capita, 1933 is the most active season in the historical record...
GFS for Monday..perhaps the Carolina's northward may want to stay a lil alert...................
Re post 232

Meanwhile U.S. politicians are refighting the civil war and the civil rights movement battles ... living among past glories without understanding that financial control of the world has passed on ...

And cutting back on the things that have kept it on the cutting edge of things, especially re science and technology .... :o/
Please, keep the Human element in focus and not your politics between US and China.

"Forbes" deserves their credit line as well,too

We paid CASH for the Se La, 14.5 billion dollar Levee Protection System UPGRADE.


"Calamity knows no borders, only Men's minds and maps do."
I could go on and on about China, and their US investments, but Mother Nature does not discriminate and I am praying that their people fare well with minimal loss of life as a result of the Typhoons.  I am just noting, as a political scientist, and leading up to the current political cycle, that we spend so much time/money/arguments turning against each other in this Country when the fact of the matter is (and I would argue this), that we actually live in the United States of "China" based upon their ownership of most of the US government debt and now snapping up US real estate.  No one talks about this in the news or in politics like they should.  Will finally note, that China has a vested interest in seeing the US do well; they have sunk most of their cash back into the US.
I will stick to the weather for the remainder of the day............................................... ................ :)
Quoting 224. Webberweather53:



With 259 points of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), 1933 is actually first place... I guess you missed that part.
Link


No, I didn't miss that part. IMO, a season with 28 Named Storms, 15 Hurricanes and 7 Major Hurricanes (2005) is more active than a season with 20 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes (1933).
One other point of comparison China vs U.S. .... cooler waters off the Chinese east coast contribute to decreased storm impact ... a similar storm off the U.S. coast would have much warmer SSTs to work with ...
Quoting 248. Xandra:


No, I didn't miss that part. IMO, a season with 28 Named Storms, 15 Hurricanes and 7 Major Hurricanes (2005) is more active than a season with 20 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes (1933).



In your opinion? How about some hard evidence that the NS, H, & MHs counts are superior to the ACE index in measuring in seasonal activity. You do realize that NOAA's standard methodology to measure seasonal activity is the ACE index? See post 241 & read up on some literature while you're at it...

This isn't even an argument...
"The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index."
251. fuzed
Sorry if this a repeat, but here is page of a couple of Shanghai web cams > http://www.onedir.com/
A AEI signal of over 3 sigma in progress. Stronger WWB & MJo are helping to increase sea surface anomalies across Nino 3 & Nino 3.4

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
@Bubbaturch7 @forecastguy @EricBlake12 Current Nino event is already stronger in atmospheric expression than 97'! WWB could keep amp high


2C anomalies continue to spread west toward Nino 3.4. Should see atleast a 1.5C or even 1.6C reading next week by the CPC.

Quoting 96. sar2401:
I'll only say that was the most unprofessional rant I've ever read from a man who's supposed to be a professional climatologist. ... It seems he has obsessively been tracking temperature records since the 70's. That's good, and I respect that. I just don't find any evidence he's other than a self-proclaimed climatologist. I'm certainly open to correction if someone can find evidence that differs.
You are correct, Sar. According to the "Meteorólogos Amateur de Costa Rica" Facebook page, Maximiliano Herrera has a degree in political science and is an amateur meteorologist.

Sr. Herrera is not a professional and his outburst was not professional - it was obviously based on a dislike of Joe Bastardi, which I can understand. Bastardi is a dishonest buffoon and publishes many falsehoods about weather and climate. Although Joe Bastardi is technically a professional, much of his b.s. and blatherings are not professional.

The entire urination contest here last night - a male ego fight - over temperature records was ridiculous. The whole unproductive exchange was nothing more than "bickering" - which is against the rules and should have been stopped by the mods.

My view on global temperature records:

1. It is valid to post WMO regional records, but in this age of AGW/CC with many records falling, it would be appropriate to do a bit of research and note pending new records. To not do so indicates laziness or a denier tactic. A slow WMO verification process is no big deal - it doesn't matter in the long term.

2. It is stupid to imply that absolute maximum and minimum large-scale regional records trump local records as the only indicator of AGW/CC. (e.g., claiming or insinuating that only if those records are broken is there evidence in the records of GW.) Such misleading comments are consistent with AGW/CC denialist tactics to avoid admitting that the world is warming, and the fact that many more high temp local records are being set around the world compared to low temp records.
Say what you want about TWC but when your 20 miles deep into the woods of Alabama and only have DirectTV to give you any weather information because there is NO cell service TWC leaving DirectTV sucks. Their stupid Weather Nation is useless. We now have no idea if we have storms coming that could potentially cause the creek to flood and strand somebody in the woods because they can't make it back across the creek to get to the house. TWC had local radar we could see every 10 minutes so with them we knew when storms were coming and knew to stay on the same side of the creek as to where the house sits.

Sure TWC has too much reality TV but they still show you the weather and the local forecast with live radar and when you don't have cell service or internet it is very useful. Bottom line is Weather Nation sucks and I would love to have TWC back on DirectTV.
Quoting 216. ncstorm:



LOL.."champ"..

Listen, I understand, I would be upset too to hear that my pockets might be affected especially seeing those numbers..$$$$..

I really thought the breakdown was because Directv said it was not going to have customers pay those higher fees because TWC was not providing what it was offering as I am a Directv customer myself..












They should have paid the higher fees, Weather Nation is crap and not near in depth as TWC. If they were going to drop TWC they should have had a better backup plan.
Quoting 237. Naga5000:



All I was trying to point out is that the big drop was for lots of different reasons, a nuance left out of the graphic which makes it seem like everyone is just leaving the TWC because of programming, which is certainly true for some. I wasn't disagreeing, just adding context. Context good.


Naga, the biggest reason viewership has dropped is because TWC is no longer offering what it built the station on...mostly everyone who has been around during the active era and were affected by those those landfalling Cat 2/3/4 hurricanes, those dangerous tornado seasons or even those record breaking snow storms affecting them tuned in to TWC because it was quality reporting..

Now people dont even realize its still on and thats sad..its going to take a situation of weather that will affect millions for TWC to have a chance to redeem itself and even then will people still tune in or resort to social media for news..I'm thinking the latter..
Quoting 149. barbamz:


Source and more: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

Wow. Tight eye. Good radar!

Thanks for posting the advisory @205, weathermanwannabe
58 m/sec = 129.7 mph for Chan -hom. In an advisory yesterday, forecasters were anticipating 40 m/sec. Storm really tightened up.

Quoting 231. BahaHurican:

They need to sell # packages ... let consumers pick what they want ... same model as isps use with data blocks ...
That would seem a wise business decision, as good-channel-picking alternatives to cable are out there now. Internet based.

Skye,
Had to look in your blog to see "that OK lake" cam has an Afton address and would be what most people call "Grand Lake." Some of the flow may be regulated by USACE. Was still raining pretty good through yesterday over much of OK, but (knock wood) no rain in the 7-day for the first time in I don't know how long and a sunny weekend in store for the first time in several weeks. :)
........

Have a wu-full weekend, All.
Loop from CNN through 11:30 EST:




Quoting 225. ncstorm:

Directv replaced TWC with weathernation to give viewers what they asked for originally and what TWC failed to give viewers and that was a channel that offered weather only


Are you kidding me, Weather Nation is generalized weather across the Nation and you get no local forecasts, all you get is a snapshot of your region. Sucks for knowing when storms are coming and might be just a few miles away. If you think Weather Nation comes anywhere close to replacing TWC then you just have it out for TWC and can't see the difference.
"We in the US do not have the money, which is tight, to invest the needed billions of dollars to upgrade our infrastructure, including coastal barriers against surge and potential sea level rise in the future"

We have the money, it's just not being used to finance public works for the greater good. It's being given back to private citizens for them to use for private purposes and further private gain. Meanwhile, the social costs of their "investments" (carbon pollution, for example) are being laid off on all of us.

"while China has taken American monies and upgraded theirs"

Yep. Our companies provided lots of employment over there in order to create cheaper goods than could be made by (and then bought by) decently paid American workers. So we did indeed pour a lot of money into China, in lots of ways, so they could build those sturdy sea walls.

We could build sea walls too, and without using slave labor. We'd just have to rethink our some of our richest people's most cherished priorities.

Which will never happen. Bye-bye, Miami!
Quoting 259. 69Viking:



Are you kidding me, Weather Nation is generalized weather across the Nation and you get no local forecasts, all you get is a snapshot of your region. Sucks for knowing when storms are coming and might be just a few miles away. If you think Weather Nation comes anywhere close to replacing TWC then you just have it out for TWC and can't see the difference.


You got all of that out of my statement??..As I said "Directv replaced TWC" with weathernation during the dispute because of what viewers were complaining about not getting....did I say anything about Weathernation being quality TV..Did I say Weathernation was better than TWC..

Slow down..take deep breaths and not interpret your own feelings of TWC vs Weathernation into my statement..
Latest eye measurement at 10 nautical mile circumference on Chan-Hom:


TPPN11 PGTW 101527 

A. TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 10/1432Z

C. 27.54N

D. 123.48E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0933Z 27.07N 124.30E SSMS
10/0945Z 27.15N 124.25E SSMS
10/1044Z 27.23N 124.17E SSMS
10/1246Z 27.33N 123.82E MMHS


UEHARA
O Snap, LoL....

Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show

The Weather Channel is looking to get its geek on.

The cable channel will soon announce the mid-August launch of a daily two-hour live show that taps into the resources and quirky spirit of Weather Underground, the website for meteorological enthusiasts obsessive enough to own personal forecast stations.

The Weather Co., the Weather Channel's parent, acquired Weather Underground in 2012, much to the chagrin of the site's fans who love its grass-roots approach to forecasting. They feared a corporate takeover of the San Francisco-based entity which grew through a network of devoted followers supplying data from across the country would make Weather Underground more commercial and less sophisticated. The site was founded by several University of Michigan students in 1993, taking their name from the left-wing radical organization formed in the late 1960s.

But the weather geeks who populate Weather Underground are the viewers the Weather Channel wants to attract with its new show.

The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.

The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate.

"They have a network of geeks that may not have a degree in weather, but they love it, and that's good enough for us," said Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer now in charge of live programming for the Weather Channel.

The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented.

- Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer

The Weather Underground show is the channel's latest bid to prove its value in an age when temperatures and forecasts are available in an instant on the Internet and mobile devices. The Weather Co. also owns Weather.com, the most visited Internet site for forecast information.

"The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented," Zimmett noted.

The privately held company, a consortium of NBCUniversal and private equity groups Blackstone Group and Bain Capital, saw the relevance of its 33-year-old cable channel come into serious question last year during a standoff with DirecTV. The nation's largest subscription video service provider refused to meet demands by the Weather Co. for an increase in fees to carry the Weather Channel, on the grounds that its content was widely available elsewhere. The Weather Channel was off DirecTV for three months before two sides agreed to terms.

The Weather Channel has always touted its role in public safety, providing continuous national coverage of storms and extreme weather. Viewership, which typically averages around 200,000 during the day, rose 11% in the first quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, thanks to brutal winter conditions in much of the U.S. There are even advertisers such as State Farm, Duracell and Home Depot that are ready with spots to air in the channel's disaster coverage.

But getting viewers to feel passionate about the Weather Channel during fair weather is a challenge. It tried in recent years by adding some climate-related reality series that looked as if they could have aired on outlets such as A&E or Discovery, but cut back on that programming as part of its new deal with DirecTV.

"Brands that attempt to be Swiss Army knives that have something for everybody %u2014 are failing," he said. "We're in an on-demand world. People can choose the best of everything. It's better to do really well with a passionate audience than it is to be all things to all people, especially in cable."

Clark said the channel has started moving in that direction, adding a half-hour science-oriented show called "WX Geeks." More scientific explanations are being weaved into regular coverage during the day.


Derek Baine, a senior analyst for media research firm SNL Kagan, said the channel is taking a smart course. "News and information has become such a commodity that any channels in this area need to change focus and develop more original programming," he said.

The Weather Underground show will be a true test of whether the channel can become more specialized. The deal to buy Weather Underground got a harsh reception from fans on Twitter. Before putting the brand's name on a TV show, the Weather Co. had to show it was true to its word that it would keep Weather Underground management in place and not alter the tone of the site.

"If we had launched this show back then it would have been rejected by the Weather Underground community," Clark said. "We're going to have to earn the respect of that community. If we do, it's a big success for us."


At&T has already taken over Directv..my At&T and DTV bills have been combined and now go soley through At&T..
Quoting 255. 69Viking:



They should have paid the higher fees, Weather Nation is crap and not near in depth as TWC. If they were going to drop TWC they should have had a better backup plan.
DIRECTV was only without Weather Channel for about three months. They broadcast it, but it is not available in a low-priced package. You gotta go up to DIRECTV's third level to get it, at least where I live. YRMV
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 27:33:06 N Lon : 123:24:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 947.1mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.0 3.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -36.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 260km
- Environmental MSLP : 998mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees



Quoting 263. weathermanwannabe:

Latest eye measurement at 10 nautical mile circumference on Chan-Hom:


TPPN11 PGTW 101527 

A. TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 10/1432Z

C. 27.54N

D. 123.48E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0933Z 27.07N 124.30E SSMS
10/0945Z 27.15N 124.25E SSMS
10/1044Z 27.23N 124.17E SSMS
10/1246Z 27.33N 123.82E MMHS


UEHARA

Ugh.
Saying a prayer for those living there.
Quoting 256. ncstorm:



the biggest reason viewership has dropped is because TWC is no longer offering what it built the station on...mostly everyone who has been around during the active era and were affected by those those landfalling Cat 2/3/4 hurricanes, those dangerous tornado seasons or even those record breaking snow storms affecting them tuned in to TWC because it was quality reporting..

Now people dont even realize its still on...
Do you have actual, direct,verifiable evidence of these statements? Because if not, you should preface them with something such as, "This is just my own unsubstantiated opinion, but I believe the biggest reason viewership..."
Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

And from the Chinese media:


HANGZHOU - China is on highest alert as super typhoon Chan-Hom approaches the eastern coast at high speeds.

The National Meteorological Center issued a red alert, the highest level of alert, on Friday morning for Chan-Hom, whose center was spotted 550 km southeast off the coast of Zhejiang province at 5 am.

The typhoon is moving northwestward from the East China Sea and will land somewhere between Fuding in Fujian province and Xiangshan in Zhejiang province.

The wind speed at the center of the typhoon is forecast to top 58 meters per second at landfall.

In Zhejiang, nearly 20,000 people have been evacuated and 20,000 fishing vessels returned to harbor for shelter. The province upgraded its emergency response by two levels to prepare for the typhoon. Direct shipping routes to Taiwan from Zhejiang have also been suspended since Thursday.

Waves as tall as 10 m were observed in the sea off the coast of Zhejiang.

"The upcoming typhoon seems very powerful. We have sealed all our windows and doors and have stored food," said Liu Yimin, a villager in coastal Huagang village.

Meanwhile, the Wenzhou city government has asked all 53,000 flood control staff in the city to stand by over the weekend.

The Fujian provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters ordered all people on coastal fishing farms in Ningde, Fuzhou, Pingtan and Putian to evacuate by 10 am Friday.

Shanghai also issued a typhoon alert on Friday warning of gales starting Friday afternoon and heavy rain on Saturday.

Typhoon Linfa made landfall on Thursday in the southern province of Guangdong, bringing torrential rain to the coast. No casualties have been reported.


'53,000 flood control staff'?
Quoting 236. ncstorm:



I would watch my local news for severe weather before TWC or weathernation..and yes I watched Weathernation, it was okay but nothing to brag about either..




Local news is good but not going to giving you updates as frequently as TWC does, at least it's not good enough for us when we're stuck out in the woods.
Quoting 271. Neapolitan:

Do you have actual, direct,verifiable evidence of these statements? Because if not, you should preface them with something such as, "This is just my own unsubstantiated opinion, but I believe the biggest reason viewership..."


You could have search google just like I did but here you go..from the Washington Post

The impact of losing DirecTV’s 20 million viewers cannot be dismissed – that’s a sizable chunk of The Weather Channel’s pool of 100 million viewers. The blow is especially harsh on top of a 19 percent overall drop in viewership since 2011, according to Nielsen data..

The Weather Channel has been criticized, by both viewers and DirecTV, for airing reality TV programs for significant chunks of time, rather than straight weather coverage.
Quoting 273. 69Viking:



Local news is good but not going to giving you updates as frequently as TWC does, at least it's not good enough for us when we're stuck out in the woods.


well I cant help where you live..I only speak on what I prefer to watch and its not TWC or weathernation..
IMHO, looking at it this from TWC's bottom line. The best thing they could have done was buy a popular weather site online. I haven't watched the weather news on a TV in over 10 years. Whether that is the TWC on cable or my local news. I rarely watch things on "TV" anymore either. And I am not exactly a millennial either.
OK, target zone of the blog; time here at 1.30 am Europe time.
The Storm of the day is about to start getting interesting, unless you happen to be on one of the numerous islands already in the activity area.

Link

So the above is now, relative to the time of the post!

Below is surface wind speeds about 12 hours from now.

Link

Doesn't look too much like an also ran.
Hope that thing get a bit quieter over the next few hours.