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Tropical Storm Ela Little Threat to Hawaii; Category 3 Chan-hom Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2015

Tropical Storm Ela, the first named storm of the 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season, got its name Wednesday night when an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a small area of 40 mph winds to the northeast of the center. Named storms are rare in the Central Pacific (west of 140°W longitude) this early in the season; the last time the Central Pacific saw a named storm this early in the year was on June 21, 2001 (Tropical Storm Barbara). Ela's formation so early in the year was aided by ocean temperatures about 2°F above average. Ela is headed northwest at 15 mph on a path that should keep the center of the storm at least 200 miles to the northeast of the islands at the time of closest approach on Saturday. Satellite loops continue to show an unimpressive storm, with just one spot of heavy thunderstorms located to the northeast of the center of circulation. High wind shear of about 20 - 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, was keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the southwest side of the storm, closest to the Hawaiian Islands. Ocean temperatures are marginal, near 25.5°C (78°F). The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would slowly rise over the next few days, and ocean temperatures would stay cool, near 25.5 - 26°C. These conditions should cause weakening of Ela. Our two most reliable track models, the GFS and European models, show Ela dissipating by Saturday. I doubt Ela will bring much rain to the islands, and high surf will the main impact on Hawaii.


Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA'a Aqua satellite at 10:05 pm EDT Wednesday, July 8, 2015. At time time, Chan-hom was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom headed for China
Intensifying Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed northwestwards at 15 mph towards China, and promises to be a dangerous and very expensive typhoon for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Thursday morning satellite images showed that Chan-hom was a huge storm with a prominent 15-mile diameter eye that was contracting as the storm continued its slow intensification process. Some dry air to the northwest of the storm was keeping the intensification rate relatively slow, as was the lack of a strong upper-level outflow channel. The typhoon is on a track to pass between Japan's Miyakojima and Okinawa islands today. Since Chan-hom's wind field is exceptionally large, with tropical storm-force winds that go out 230 miles from the center, these islands will receive an extended pummeling. As of noon EDT Thursday (midnight local time), Kadena Air Base on Okinawa had already seen sustained tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph for eight hours, with sustained peak winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, at 11:57 pm Thursday local time. With the center of Chan-hom expected to make its closest approach to the island near 2 pm EDT (3 am Friday local time), Okinawa can expect to see at least an 18-hour period of sustained tropical storm-force winds.

Wind shear will be light to moderate and ocean heat content will be high until just after the storm passes these islands, so intensification into a Category 4 storm by Thursday night (U.S. EDT) is likely. On Friday, as Chan-hom approaches China, ocean heat content will fall and wind shear is expected to rise, which should cause weakening. Even so, Chan-hom's very large wind field will be capable of bringing an usually high storm surge to the coast; I expect the storm surge will be one of the five highest in the past century for the coastal region just to the north of where the center makes landfall on Friday evening (U.S. EDT.) However, the exact landfall location in China is quite uncertain, as a strong trough of low pressure is expected to turn the typhoon northwards as the center nears the coast on Friday. As Chan-hom curves to the north a weakens due to interaction with land, the storm is expected to pass very close to Shanghai as a very large and very wet tropical storm. Significant wind damage, coastal flooding, and flooding due to heavy rain is possible in Shanghai, which is China's most populous city (14 million people.)

Dan Lindsey of NOAA/CIRA has put together two impressive loops of Chan-hom at sunset on July 9, 2015, as seen using the high-resolution 0.5 km imagery from the Himawari Satellite: zoomed out and zoomed in.


Figure 2. Triple trouble in the Pacific. From left to right: Tropical Storm Linfa (70 mph winds) just after landfall in South China; Category 2 Typhoon Chan-Hom (105 mph winds) approaching Okinawa; and Category 4 Typhoon Nangka (145 mph winds) passing through the Northern Mariana Islands. Six hours before this image was taken, Linfa was also a typhoon, making it the first time in twenty years the Northwest Pacific had seen three simultaneous typhoons (thanks go to TWC's Michael Lowry for this stat.) Image was taken by the JMA MTSAT at 0530Z on July 9, 2015. Image credit: NOAA Viz Lab.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Typhoon Linfa hit South China's Guangdong province on Thursday at 12:15 local time Thursday as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Linfa has since weakened to a tropical storm, and is expected to track west-southwest towards Hong Kong. Category 4 Super Typhoon Nangka (155 mph winds) is just below Category 5 strength, but is fortunately affecting only a sparsely populated portion of the Northern Mariana Islands. Nagka is on a track that could bring it near Japan on Friday, July 17, but it is too early to assess the risk this storm might pose to Japan. The Atlantic remains quiet, and is dominated by high wind shear and stable dry air. None of our reliable genesis models are showing tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next five days.


Video 1. Storm chaser James Reynolds is on Japan's ‪Miyakojima Island, and shot this impressive video (used here with permission) of the massive waves of Typhoon Chan-hom hitting the island. He is posting updates on his Twitter feed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Chan-hom's eyewall is looking way better than before!
Chan-hom

Rainbow Loop

Indonesia volcano Sinabung spews clouds of ash towards homes

7 hours ago


Mount Sinabung on Sumatra in western Indonesia is continuing to spew clouds of ash into the air and down slopes towards people's homes.


Authorities are monitoring activity from the volcano, after raising the alert to the highest possible level in early June.

More than 10,000 villagers whose homes are in the danger zone have since been evacuated
Thank You Dr. The typhoon warning center is forecasting maximum wave heights of 36 feet at peak intensity. Don't know how that will translate into storm surge levels as the storm approaches shore and hopefully weakens but a 20 foot surge might not be out of the question on approach.
Thanks Doctor.
Quoting 4. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. The typhoon warning center is forecasting maximum wave heights of 36 feet at peak intensity. Don't know how that will translate into storm surge levels as the storm approaches shore and hopefully weakens but a 20 foot surge might not be out of the question on approach.

Have you seen anything on the models for our next Atlantic storm???
The NW quad is starting to bring some moisture into the banding. Also noting that Chan-Hom is so large and dominant in the synoptic environment that it is drawing some of the moisture from the South and from the Western quad of Nanka. Also note that it wobbling a bit towards the void left behind from Linfa. Gonna be tough to make a call right now on the actual landfall location until tomorrow.

Quoting 4. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. The typhoon warning center is forecasting maximum wave heights of 36 feet at peak intensity. Don't know how that will translate into storm surge levels as the storm approaches shore and hopefully weakens but a 20 foot surge might not be out of the question on approach.


That would be absolutely devastating. Once again I think this should be front page news everywhere. It has the potential to be very bad. Hopefully the people in the cone of uncertainty are preparing for the worst, hoping for the best or just leaving town for a bit.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters! With a Jurassic El Niño and an atmosphere more akin to the Jurassic than the Holocene, I'd say we can expect a lot more typhoons over the next several months.
Extreme drought (D-3) made an appearance this week in PR, there's also no sign of a significant rain event in the next weeks.



The eye of Chan-Hom has now contracted down to 7 nautical miles per the most recent satt estimate:


TPPN11 PGTW 091515 

A. TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 09/1432Z

C. 24.55N

D. 127.20E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 7NM WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
LG YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT
TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0924Z 23.78N 128.13E WIND
09/0945Z 23.88N 128.05E SSMS
09/0957Z 23.93N 128.07E SSMS
09/1056Z 24.07N 127.85E SSMS
09/1220Z 24.20N 127.43E ATMS
09/1306Z 24.32N 127.43E MMHS


Parts of SE FL are now in extreme drought. Amazing this is happening during the rainiest time of the year for FL.
Cold water upwelling all around Australia now. Here is a closer look below also this cooling is extending up to the Philippines. This should lock the SOI into Super El-Nino levels over the coming weeks and also continue to enhance strong WWB moving toward South America. Starting to look like skies the limit now for this El-Nino.

Quoting 12. tampabaymatt:



Parts of SE FL are now in extreme drought. Amazing this is happening during the rainiest time of the year for FL.


From Driest Wet Season to Wettest Dry Season. You watch.

Not bad looking for a storm in the month of May.
I could be wrong but it looks to me like an eye wall replacement cycle, into the smaller eye, on Chan-Hom as it intensifies this afternoon (our time):

3rd Oceanic Kelvin Wave Rapidly building beneath the Dateline as a result of record Westerly Winds. Also 2C anomalies are spreading across Nino 3.4 pretty fast now too from the East actually as the 2nd Kelvin Wave surfaced and warm SST's spread west from Nino 3.

Quoting 10. JLPR2:

Extreme drought (D-3) made an appearance this week in PR, there's also no sign of a significant rain event in the next weeks.


Which, if I remember correctly, is the first time in the history of the Drought Monitor that D-3 showed up in Puerto Rico.
"...I expect the storm surge will be one of the five highest in the past century for the coastal region just to the north of where the center makes landfall on Friday evening (U.S. EDT.)"

Now that sounds ominous...
Wow, amazing looking storms. Going to be a bad weekend in Taiwan and China...
Thanks Jeff...
Chan Hom

RGB Loop

Quoting 21. Patrap:

Real time wind & weather report Torii Beach/Kadena AB, Okinawa

Can you imagine listening to those winds for 18+ hours? Ugh
Quoting 18. LongIslandBeaches:



Which, if I remember correctly, is the first time in the history of the Drought Monitor that D-3 showed up in Puerto Rico.


The US Drought Monitor started in 1999, so yes, it's the first time it shows this color in PR. Last serious drought hit PR in 1994.
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

29. JRRP
cold MDR 2000

cold MDR 2015
Quoting 26. LAbonbon:


Can you imagine listening to those winds for 18+ hours? Ugh


Yes, unfortunately, as I've now acquired close to 35 eyewall Hours since 65'.

K was 9 hrs alone.



Quoting 10. JLPR2:

Extreme drought (D-3) made an appearance this week in PR, there's also no sign of a significant rain event in the next weeks.




A new area of D3 was introduced in the eastern areas of Puerto Rico this week as well, bringing the first time that D3 has been depicted on Puerto Rico since the beginning of the United States Drought Monitor. Water rationing and low aquifers are the main impacts being felt at this time. In Alaska, D1 was introduced in the southern panhandle while D0 and D1 was expanded in the central portions of the state
Quoting 29. JRRP:

cold MDR 2000

cold MDR 2015

But this year we have the El nino the atlantic looks almost identical.
western gulf?
Grammar Police Alert....
in the 2nd paragraph of the Chan Hom section...

"...As Chan-hom curves to the north a weakens due to interaction with land..."

Doesn't look like anyone has caught it yet.. or cared to mention it :)
Quoting 29. JRRP:

cold MDR 2000

cold MDR 2015



Extreme Cooling happening in the Banda Sea . Looks like the linkage is happening. I say those saying we are only going to have a sub 2C ENSO is about to see that ship sail off.
Quoting 33. islander101010:

western gulf?


No
according to wunderground almanac: Romeo, MI (48065) has not been warmer then 90°F since September 2013

Lower Michigan typically exceeds 90°F 5+ times a year
39. JRRP
Quoting 32. Gearsts:

But this year we have the El nino the atlantic looks almost identical.

Yeah...
More El-Nino/GW Blogs the coming decades?

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5m5 minutes ago
@spaten6 @capecodweather If the AMO flips, will likely bring reduced Atlantic hurricanes (and increased Pacific) for couple decade- If!
Quoting 32. Gearsts:

But this year we have the El nino the atlantic looks almost identical.


As bad as it was in 2000 we still had 15 named storms. This year though we have El-Nino to put the fork in the Atlantic.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are
associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area.
Gradual development is anticipated through the weekend, and this
system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

new invest soon!!

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave and a
weak area of low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development over the next several days, and this system
will likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Hopefully Phil got in his shelter.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

PAC065-091815-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150709T1815Z/
JEFFERSON PA-
202 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 201 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PUNXSUTAWNEY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PUNXSUTAWNEY...SYKESVILLE...BIG RUN AND ANITA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING 4 1 2...2 6 2...1 9 8 8...
POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER AT NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 7881 4091 7896 4101 7896 4106 7882 4105 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 258DEG 33KT 4095 7887

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Nice! Funny as all get out. "Ambulance Chasers"!

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.
we will have new invest soon around 5pm
47. JRRP
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:



As bad as it was in 2000 we still had 15 named storms. This year though we have El-Nino to put the fork in the Atlantic.

yeah...that's the difference
Quoting 47. JRRP:


yeah...that's the difference


2000 was a very impressive year if i can recall. I remember a couple of STS's hanging out off the SE US in either September or October. They just wouldn't go away and as a result 2000 ended up as the driest year ever in Orlando due to the persistent NNE flow that lasted for weeks killing off our Rainy Season early.
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Nice! Funny as all get out. "Ambulance Chasers"!

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.



Except for the fact that it was the hottest on record for parts of Europe. Haven't you been reading the blog this week? Why would you post a bald-faced lie? Maybe "BigJoe" doesn't pay attention, but I know you do.

From Dr. Masters' blog earlier this week:
"Germany broke its all-time heat record on Sunday July 5, when the mercury soared to 104.5F (40.3C) at the official Kitzingen station in Bavaria. According to the German weather service's Facebook page, the record is now confirmed as official. The previous official national heat record recognized by the German meteorological agency (DWD) was 104.4F (40.2C), set in July 1983 and matched in August 2003. Numerous cities in Germany set all-time heat records over the weekend, including Saturday's 100.2F (37.9C ) reading at Berlin's Dahlem station, which has a very long period of record going back to 1876. Frankfurt beat its all-time heat record on Sunday--both at the airport (38.8C) and downtown (39.0C). Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera and Klimahaus' Michael Theusner for these stats. According to an analysis of DWD observing station data done by Dr. Theusner, 131 of 492 stations in Germany set an all-time heat record during the July 2 - 5 heat wave, and another 7 tied their previous record."

I don't do twitter, but I am quite sure that breaking all-time heat records is definitely the complete opposite of being "nothing near as the hottest ever". Is that clear even in pea-brained shorthand or does one have to use a lot of luv, u, 4, and the like?

I just don't get the twitter thing or "BigJoe" thing. I like the concise informative and linked posts here by Dr. Masters and Henson.
I know it's very far out, but does the CV season want to start early???? GFS has been showing a series of tropical waves exiting Africa, with most of them having low pressure areas attached to them in the coming weeks.
today is a vary fall like day here in sonora CA in fact its so fall like today with the really cool tempers we have out there it has allowed snow levels too drop too mts passs so today marks the 1st snow fall of the season for the mts pass i find this vary rare for july and this is vary early too be talking about mt snow fall on the pass level

Tioga Pass snow fall today i would say there about 2" of snow on pass level





there all so a dusting of snow at sonora pass

Link


Look at that Cape Verde Wave Train!!!
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

Nice! Funny as all get out. "Ambulance Chasers"!

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.



Poor Big Joe. Someone should link him to all the Germany set it's all time hottest temperature articles in every major newspaper. For someone whose job is weather he sure isn't paying close attention to it.



Quoting 50. wartsttocs:



Except for the fact that it was the hottest on record for parts of Europe. Haven't you been reading the blog this week? Why would you post a bald-faced lie? Maybe "BigJoe" doesn't pay attention, but I know you do.

From Dr. Master's blog earlier this week:
"Germany broke its all-time heat record on Sunday July 5, when the mercury soared to 104.5F (40.3C) at the official Kitzingen station in Bavaria. According to the German weather service's Facebook page, the record is now confirmed as official. The previous official national heat record recognized by the German meteorological agency (DWD) was 104.4F (40.2C), set in July 1983 and matched in August 2003. Numerous cities in Germany set all-time heat records over the weekend, including Saturday's 100.2F (37.9C ) reading at Berlin's Dahlem station, which has a very long period of record going back to 1876. Frankfurt beat its all-time heat record on Sunday--both at the airport (38.8C) and downtown (39.0C). Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera and Klimahaus' Michael Theusner for these stats. According to an analysis of DWD observing station data done by Dr. Theusner, 131 of 492 stations in Germany set an all-time heat record during the July 2 - 5 heat wave, and another 7 tied their previous record."

I don't do twitter, but I am quite sure that breaking all-time heat records is definitely the complete opposite of being "nothing near as the hottest ever". Is that clear even in pea-brained shorthand or does one have to use a lot of luv, u, 4, and the like?




Hey That's JB for you but the guy does have a sense of humor. Whether I agree or not with him.
Quoting 50. wartsttocs:



Except for the fact that it was the hottest on record for parts of Europe. Haven't you been reading the blog this week? Why would you post a bald-faced lie? Maybe "BigJoe" doesn't pay attention, but I know you do.

From Dr. Master's blog earlier this week:
"Germany broke its all-time heat record on Sunday July 5, when the mercury soared to 104.5°F (40.3°C) at the official Kitzingen station in Bavaria. According to the German weather service's Facebook page, the record is now confirmed as official. The previous official national heat record recognized by the German meteorological agency (DWD) was 104.4°F (40.2°C), set in July 1983 and matched in August 2003. Numerous cities in Germany set all-time heat records over the weekend, including Saturday's 100.2°F (37.9°C ) reading at Berlin's Dahlem station, which has a very long period of record going back to 1876. Frankfurt beat its all-time heat record on Sunday--both at the airport (38.8°C) and downtown (39.0°C). Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera and Klimahaus' Michael Theusner for these stats. According to an analysis of DWD observing station data done by Dr. Theusner, 131 of 492 stations in Germany set an all-time heat record during the July 2 - 5 heat wave, and another 7 tied their previous record."

I don't do twitter, but I am quite sure that breaking all-time heat records is definitely the complete opposite of being "nothing near as the hottest ever". Is that clear even in pea-brained shorthand or does one have to use a lot of luv, u, 4, and the like?




Joe may be referring to the era when what we now know as "Europe" was what is known as "an endless sea of liquid magma". That was over 2 billion years ago, so he may have left that part out.
Nice! Funny as all get out. "Ambulance Chasers"!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.


i don't get this one.....can someone tell me what makes this funny?????
Quoting 57. ricderr:

Nice! Funny as all get out. "Ambulance Chasers"!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.


i don't get this one.....can someone tell me what makes this funny?????


Hey thanks, I didn't consider that one which makes the statement not a lie at all. However that would depend on what your definition of Europe is. Or is it "is" is? I forget.
Quoting 51. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I know it's very far out, but does the CV season want to start early???? GFS has been showing a series of tropical waves exiting Africa, with most of them having low pressure areas attached to them in the coming weeks.


Don't expect any development unless it maintains itself once it gets to the NW Carib/GOM- or off SE USA. You never know.
Probably a stupid question but gotta ask

Looking at a surface analysis map ...see the words "outflow bndry" over Texas. Can someone please explain what that means?

Quoting 57. ricderr:

Nice! Funny as all get out. "Ambulance Chasers"!

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.


i don't get this one.....can someone tell me what makes this funny?????


"Climatic Ambulance Chasers" isn't funny?
For the first time ever, I just spent some time reading through Bastardi's tweets of the last several days. What a voice for the radical right. Spewing disinformation, conspiracy nonsense, religious beliefs, political jabs...mixed in with periodic tweets pertaining to weather. Even those aren't without his own spin and jabs.

First and last trip to his Twitter feed. No thanks! I like my weather honest and spin-free.
Quoting 58. SouthTampa:

Bastardi is a blithering idiot. I don't know why anyone pays attention to him.


Because he's the weather reporter equivalent of a car crash, and people are fascinated by car crashes. For example, his thundersnow histrionics were jaw droppingly cringemaking.
Gorgeous:
There must be some leftover outflow from some prior heavy thunderstorms in the area, basically a gust front from their downdrafts. These are capable of causing further t-storms by pushing up any ambient warmer humid air.
Quoting 61. txjac:

Probably a stupid question but gotta ask

Looking at a surface analysis map ...see the words "outflow bndry" over Texas. Can someone please explain what that means?


Quoting 63. LAbonbon:

For the first time ever, I just spent some time reading through Bastardi's tweets of the last several days. What a voice for the radical right. Spewing disinformation, conspiracy nonsense, religious beliefs, political jabs...mixed in with periodic tweets pertaining to weather. Even those aren't without his own spin and jabs.

First and last trip to his Twitter feed. No thanks! I like my weather honest and spin-free.

He really is a nasty sort. But he is arrogant. On that I think we can all agree.
Quoting 40. StormTrackerScott:

More El-Nino/GW Blogs the coming decades?

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5m5 minutes ago
@spaten6 @capecodweather If the AMO flips, will likely bring reduced Atlantic hurricanes (and increased Pacific) for couple decade- If!



Bet our Florida homeowners insurance rates stay high anyway?
Quoting 61. txjac:

Probably a stupid question but gotta ask

Looking at a surface analysis map ...see the words "outflow bndry" over Texas. Can someone please explain what that means?




OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CHARACTERISTICS
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 20h20 hours ago State College, PA
Euro heat was impressive, but nothing near as hottest ever as climatic ambulance chasers claim.


Quoting 68. SunnyDaysFla:



Bet our Florida homeowners insurance rates stay high anyway?


Of course. No hurricane in 10 years but yet our rates continue to climb every year.
Quoting 67. Misanthroptimist:


He really is a nasty sort. But he is arrogant. On that I think we can all agree.


He isn't nasty but arrogant I can see.
"Climatic Ambulance Chasers" isn't funny?

no scott......i just don't find it funny......and it doesn't matter my position on climate change....or if it was rude or not....funny is funny...and biting humor is great....but i don't get this one....i guess maybe if you're a climate change denier it strikes as funny
So I am following the MTSAT floater on Chan-hom, but only get a 16:32 UTC image while it is supposed to update every half hour and I believe it is 20:11 UTC right now. What gives? I am hooked on this storm and need my floater fix.....
Quoting 61. txjac:

Probably a stupid question but gotta ask

Looking at a surface analysis map ...see the words "outflow bndry" over Texas. Can someone please explain what that means?



Afternoon, txjac - looks like BayFog and nrtiwlnvragn got it covered. And no questions are stupid...at least I hope not, as I ask quite a few of them.

You've probably seen this - NWS JetStream. In the appendix there's a pretty good glossary and acronym list. I use it often to look up terms and to refresh my memory.
Bet our Florida homeowners insurance rates stay high anyway?

you're insurance premium is based on risk......not what has been paid out...such as.....lower your crime....lower your risk....once you figure out how to lower your chances of hurricanes...they'll come dow
HRD mourns retired hurricane hunter pilot Dave Turner

Excerpt:

David Lindsay Turner, 91, passed away 26 June in Jacksonville, FL. Dave flew into hurricanes with the U. S. Navy’s VW-4 Hurricane Hunter Squadron. After leaving the Navy in 1969, Dave joined NOAA in Miami as a civilian hurricane pilot , and flew until his retirement in 1993. He holds the record for the most flights into hurricanes by any pilot in the world.
Quoting 74. wartsttocs:

So I am following the MTSAT floater on Chan-hom, but only get a 16:32 UTC image while it is supposed to update every half hour and I believe it is 20:11 UTC right now. What gives? I am hooked on this storm and need my floater fix.....
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=0& ;element=0&mode=UTC

Not a floater image but here is the latest 30 minute update from the Japanese satt/site (1900 UTC):


Quoting 74. wartsttocs:

So I am following the MTSAT floater on Chan-hom, but only get a 16:32 UTC image while it is supposed to update every half hour and I believe it is 20:11 UTC right now. What gives? I am hooked on this storm and need my floater fix.....


MSAT Outage
Quoting 61. txjac:

Probably a stupid question but gotta ask

Looking at a surface analysis map ...see the words "outflow bndry" over Texas. Can someone please explain what that means?




Now that you have the answer, you can see what it looks like:
Link
Quoting 78. ricderr:

Bet our Florida homeowners insurance rates stay high anyway?

you're insurance premium is based on risk......not what has been paid out...such as.....lower your crime....lower your risk....once you figure out how to lower your chances of hurricanes...they'll come dow


Claims history is a big factor in determining premiums as well.
Claims history is a big factor in determining premiums as well.

exactly....it shows the outcome of the risk.......
Quoting 78. ricderr:

Bet our Florida homeowners insurance rates stay high anyway?

you're insurance premium is based on risk......not what has been paid out...such as.....lower your crime....lower your risk....once you figure out how to lower your chances of hurricanes...they'll come dow



HUH? I have done everything possible to lower my chances of damage. Got all the discounts.
You saying I should "move" my house to another part of the country? LOL

I think the insurance companies figure we are overdue, even if the numbers go down, they will be
keeping the rates high.
Quoting 87. ricderr:

Claims history is a big factor in determining premiums as well.

exactly....it shows the outcome of the risk.......


I'm not sure I follow your point. You refuted Scott's point that lower amounts of hurricane strikes should lower premiums, because the risk is still there. However, lower amounts of strikes would lower claims.
09W CHAN-HOM
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 09, 2015:

Location: 25.1°N 126.6°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb






2 simultaneously category 4 typhoons right now:

11W NANGKA
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 09, 2015:

Location: 18.2°N 143.6°E
Maximum Winds: 135 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 mb


Quoting 64. yonzabam:



Because he's the weather reporter equivalent of a car crash, and people are fascinated by car crashes. For example, his thundersnow histrionics were jaw droppingly cringemaking.
I guess someone didn't like my calling [redacted]i a [redacted]; post got redacted... I guess I will have to go back to redacting my [redacted] words.
Quoting 84. tampabaymatt:



Claims history is a big factor in determining premiums as well.


This is true and it is tracked by the industry at the individual house level in an industrywide database. You need to be very careful about making multiple small claims or your property may be more difficult and expensive to insure.

Quoting 87. ricderr:

Claims history is a big factor in determining premiums as well.

exactly....it shows the outcome of the risk.......


You also stated that premiums are not based on what has been paid out in claims. But, in fact, they are.
Quoting 88. SunnyDaysFla:




HUH? I have done everything possible to lower my chances of damage. Got all the discounts.
You saying I should "move" my house to another part of the country? LOL

I think the insurance companies figure we are overdue, even if the numbers go down, they will be
keeping the rates high.


Sounds like a Rick Scott supporter. Basically the only way to lower your risk according to Ric is move to somewhere like El-Paso or Fargo,ND. I watched Fargo no way I will live there!
Regarding Bastardi's tweet, this graphic was included. Apparently, to him, unless the highest record in a given region is exceeded, it doesn't count... So for us in the U.S., unless we hit a temperature higher than 134 (!), no matter how hot it gets, it won't really matter?

Quoting 50. wartsttocs:



Except for the fact that it was the hottest on record for parts of Europe. Haven't you been reading the blog this week? Why would you post a bald-faced lie? Maybe "BigJoe" doesn't pay attention, but I know you do.

From Dr. Masters' blog earlier this week:
"Germany broke its all-time heat record on Sunday July 5, when the mercury soared to 104.5�F (40.3�C) at the official Kitzingen station in Bavaria. According to the German weather service's Facebook page, the record is now confirmed as official. The previous official national heat record recognized by the German meteorological agency (DWD) was 104.4�F (40.2�C), set in July 1983 and matched in August 2003. Numerous cities in Germany set all-time heat records over the weekend, including Saturday's 100.2�F (37.9�C ) reading at Berlin's Dahlem station, which has a very long period of record going back to 1876. Frankfurt beat its all-time heat record on Sunday--both at the airport (38.8�C) and downtown (39.0�C). Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera and Klimahaus' Michael Theusner for these stats. According to an analysis of DWD observing station data done by Dr. Theusner, 131 of 492 stations in Germany set an all-time heat record during the July 2 - 5 heat wave, and another 7 tied their previous record."

I don't do twitter, but I am quite sure that breaking all-time heat records is definitely the complete opposite of being "nothing near as the hottest ever". Is that clear even in pea-brained shorthand or does one have to use a lot of luv, u, 4, and the like?

I just don't get the twitter thing or "BigJoe" thing. I like the concise informative and linked posts here by Dr. Masters and Henson.
Hi Wartsttocs, like JB stated all of Europe, not just a few areas. Looks like it's going to turn cool over their in the coming weeks.
Quoting 95. LAbonbon:

Regarding Bastardi's tweet, this graphic was included. Apparently, to him, unless the highest record in a given region is exceeded, it doesn't count... So for us in the U.S., unless we hit a temperature higher than 134 (!), no matter how hot it gets, it won't really matter?




Those temperatures ARE ALL FAKE.
Death Valley record absolute record is 129F, only a real ignorant who lacks even the basics of climatology can believe to that scam, which was near 20F overestimated compared to its real temperature. The South America record is FAKE, with overestimation of more than 15F. And so on, that garbage of Tirats Tsvi IS A SCAM and as that ridicoulous joke of Kebili in Africa is MILLIONS times worse than Al AZizia and it was overestimating by 20-25F the temperature.
ALL temperatures reported in that map ARE FAKE, that Antarctica "record" is regularly beaten EVERY YEAR BY AT LEAST A DOZEN STATIONS. Joe Bastardi is not only a crook, but clearly an ignorant without any minimal knowledge of even the ABC of climatology. The only thing he is able to do is copying the tables of those inepts incompetents of the WMO, who have a total lack of even the basics of climatology.
Quoting 95. LAbonbon:

Regarding Bastardi's tweet, this graphic was included. Apparently, to him, unless the highest record in a given region is exceeded, it doesn't count... So for us in the U.S., unless we hit a temperature higher than 134 (!), no matter how hot it gets, it won't really matter?



As near as I can tell there has been no statistically significant thought in Bastardi's head for the last 17 years.
Quoting 92. georgevandenberghe:



This is true and it is tracked by the industry at the individual house level in an industrywide database. You need to be very careful about making multiple small claims or your property may be more difficult and expensive to insure.




True. I sold insurance for a few years and people were surprised how little things add up to a large premium increase.
Updated 19:30 Japan/Himawari satt shot of the region; you can use this site for their 30 minute updates until MSAT goes back online:

Quoting 98. Misanthroptimist:


As near as I can tell there has been no statistically significant thought in Bastardi's head for the last 17 years.


Don't know about that. I'm sure he thinks about his statistically significant enhanced salary.
Quoting 90. pablosyn:

09W CHAN-HOM
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 09, 2015:

Location: 25.1%uFFFDN 126.6%uFFFDE
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb






2 simultaneously category 4 typhoons right now:

11W NANGKA
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 09, 2015:

Location: 18.2%uFFFDN 143.6%uFFFDE
Maximum Winds: 135 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 mb





Chan-Hom is beautiful, but damn it's terrifying at the same time.
Hurricane Risk and Property Insurance Markets

Martin Grace
Martin Grace
Robert W. Klein


Hurricane Risk and Property Insurance Markets

Abstract

The intense hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 caused substantial instability in property insurance markets in coastal states with the greatest pressure in Florida and the Southeast. While no severe hurricanes have struck the US since 2005, market pressures remain high given the substantial risk still facing coastal states.

The market developments in high-risk areas have generated considerable concern and some controversy among various groups of stakeholders. As both insurers and property owners seek to adjust and respond to changing circumstances, public officials are wrestling with how to deal with market changes and looking for remedies that will ease the pressures on consumers.

In this context, it is important to understand how property insurance markets have been changing and analyze the forces driving their dynamics. This paper presents an updated analysis of property insurance market conditions and developments with a particular focus on Florida and five other states, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and New York.

These states represent an array of market conditions with the greatest risk and market pressure in Florida followed by Louisiana and Texas. Our analysis documents the significant restructuring of these markets, the rising price of and tighter availability of insurance, and the substantial losses suffered by insurers that have adversely affected the supply of coverage. We also consider how insurance markets will continue to evolve under different risk and regulatory scenarios.

I. Introduction The intense hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 caused substantial instability in property insurance markets in coastal states with the greatest pressure in Florida and the Southeast. Other coastal states exposed to hurricanes also have experienced some market pressures and changes.

The increased risk of hurricanes striking the US prompted significant changes in these same markets beginning in the early 1990s but the particularly intense hurricane activity during 2004-2005 has led to another wave of market adjustments. Both the loss shocks of the 2004-2005 storm seasons as well as the recognition that hurricane risk has risen to a new, higher leve l (higher than that perceived prior to 2004) have been major drivers of the recent market adjustments.
Quoting 99. JustDucky251:



True. I sold insurance for a few years and people were surprised how little things add up to a large premium increase.


Only claim I ever put in was for a lightning strike 20 some years ago.
Quoting 88. SunnyDaysFla:




HUH? I have done everything possible to lower my chances of damage. Got all the discounts.
You saying I should "move" my house to another part of the country? LOL

I think the insurance companies figure we are overdue, even if the numbers go down, they will be
keeping the rates high.
Florida will still have hurricane and tropical storm hits in a cold AMO. The high rates are part of living in Florida, and they will keep going up.
Quoting 100. weathermanwannabe:

Updated 19:30 Japan/Himawari satt shot of the region; you can use this site for their 30 minute updates until MSAT goes back online:




Himawari 10 min update
Quoting 97. maxcrc:



Those temperatures ARE ALL FAKE.
Death Valley record absolute record is 129F, only a real ignorant who lacks even the basics of climatology can believe to that scam, which was near 20F overestimated compared to its real temperature. The South America record is FAKE, with overestimation of more than 15F. And so on, that garbage of Tirats Tsvi IS A SCAM and as that ridicoulous joke of Kebili in Africa is MILLIONS times worse than Al AZizia and it was overestimating by 20-25F the temperature.
ALL temperatures reported in that map ARE FAKE, that Antarctica "record" is regularly beaten EVERY YEAR BY AT LEAST A DOZEN STATIONS. Joe Bastardi is not only a crook, but clearly an ignorant without any minimal knowledge of even the ABC of climatology. The only thing he is able to do is copying the tables of those inepts incompetents of the WMO, who have a total lack of even the basics of climatology.

Okay, this is my favorite post of the day :D

I knew some of this was wrong (specifically Death Valley and Antarctica) simply by reading this blog :)
Also noting that it is early Friday morning in Beijing (almost 4:00 am) already so we will not be getting any visible shots of Chan-Hom until later this evening in the US.
Quoting 99. JustDucky251:



True. I sold insurance for a few years and people were surprised how little things add up to a large premium increase.


I've never had any insurance for anything my entire life. I had someone from my bank on the phone trying to sell me fire insurance last year. When was the last time you saw a house fire? Mental. The idea that my premiums would be subsidising insurance fraudsters makes me see red.

If it's good business for insurers, it's bad business for you, and it's significant that Warren Buffet is heavily invested in insurance companies. He can do the maths.
Quoting 86. Misanthroptimist:


My insurance cost more than my property taxes. I'm ~20 miles from the shore, too.

You need to put this in proper capitalist perspective. Your insurance premiums go towards supporting the luxury lifestyles of insurance executives, while your property taxes support the decidedly down market lifestyles of teachers. See, all is well.
Quoting 97. maxcrc:



Those temperatures ARE ALL FAKE.
Death Valley record absolute record is 129F, only a real ignorant who lacks even the basics of climatology can believe to that scam, which was near 20F overestimated compared to its real temperature. The South America record is FAKE, with overestimation of more than 15F. And so on, that garbage of Tirats Tsvi IS A SCAM and as that ridicoulous joke of Kebili in Africa is MILLIONS times worse than Al AZizia and it was overestimating by 20-25F the temperature.
ALL temperatures reported in that map ARE FAKE, that Antarctica "record" is regularly beaten EVERY YEAR BY AT LEAST A DOZEN STATIONS. Joe Bastardi is not only a crook, but clearly an ignorant without any minimal knowledge of even the ABC of climatology. The only thing he is able to do is copying the tables of those inepts incompetents of the WMO, who have a total lack of even the basics of climatology.
Pretty wild statement, and who are you? It's not only JB, but other forecasters over on the WB site, like Dr. Maue, and JD. Both excellent meteorologist and climate scientist, and what is your expertise in climate science? One thing I like about JB is he use analogs from past years to try to prove his points as the weather tries to repeat itself from years past. Not exactly the same but close in a lot of cases.
#109 yonzabam

Guessing you don;t own a house or a car?
Quoting 97. maxcrc:



Those temperatures ARE ALL FAKE.
Death Valley record absolute record is 129F, only a real ignorant who lacks even the basics of climatology can believe to that scam, which was near 20F overestimated compared to its real temperature. The South America record is FAKE, with overestimation of more than 15F. And so on, that garbage of Tirats Tsvi IS A SCAM and as that ridicoulous joke of Kebili in Africa is MILLIONS times worse than Al AZizia and it was overestimating by 20-25F the temperature.
ALL temperatures reported in that map ARE FAKE, that Antarctica "record" is regularly beaten EVERY YEAR BY AT LEAST A DOZEN STATIONS. Joe Bastardi is not only a crook, but clearly an ignorant without any minimal knowledge of even the ABC of climatology. The only thing he is able to do is copying the tables of those inepts incompetents of the WMO, who have a total lack of even the basics of climatology.
While I'm not a big fan of BIg Joe, the WMO doesn't agree with you -

WMO Region Continental Element Characteristic Value
wmo region 3: south america Highest Temperature 48.9C (120F)
wmo region 4: north america Highest Temperature 56.7C (134F)
wmo region 5: southwest pacific Highest Temperature 50.7C (123F)

Link
Appears in the latest sat images that CHAN-HOM may be starting an eye wall replacement cycle ..




look at invest 91C
Quoting 109. yonzabam:



I've never had any insurance for anything my entire life. I had someone from my bank on the phone trying to sell me fire insurance last year. When was the last time you saw a house fire? Mental. The idea that my premiums would be subsidising insurance fraudsters makes me see red.

If it's good business for insurers, it's bad business for you, and it's significant that Warren Buffet is heavily invested in insurance companies. He can do the maths.


So, because insurance companies are profitable, nobody should have insurance? The way insurance is intended to work is that a variety of people with various risk profiles pool together, which lowers the overall premium for all. If people that have low risk profiles for insurance all decided not to have it, the system would collapse and premiums would skyrocket. I’m not sure if you own a home, but hopefully you never have a catastrophe happen. You’ll wish you had insurance then.
Quoting 112. NativeSun:

Pretty wild statement, and who are you? It's not only JB, but other forecasters over on the WB site, like Dr. Maue, and JD. Both excellent meteorologist and climate scientist, and what is your expertise in climate science? One thing I like about JB is he use analogs from past years to try to prove his points as the weather tries to repeat itself from years past. Not exactly the same but close in a lot of cases.


Very true. I don't agree with some of the things he says but he always backs his data up to prove his point.
Quoting 113. SunnyDaysFla:

#109 yonzabam

Guessing you don;t own a house or a car?


Correct. But, there's no mandatory house insurance in the UK, so I wouldn't have taken out any insurance for it even if I did own it. I rent a council house from local government.
Quoting 112. NativeSun:

Pretty wild statement, and who are you? It's not only JB, but other forecasters over on the WB site, like Dr. Maue, and JD. Both excellent meteorologist and climate scientist, and what is your expertise in climate science? One thing I like about JB is he use analogs from past years to try to prove his points as the weather tries to repeat itself from years past. Not exactly the same but close in a lot of cases.


Neither are climate scientists in the sense that they are active publishing researchers in the field. Your facts are wrong. Maue has published work on tropical cyclones.
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:



Very true. I don't agree with some of the things he says but he always backs his data up to prove his point.
I DO!!
Heading out and everyone have a safe weather evening. Looking forward to seeing what happens tomorrow with Chan-Hom in terms of intensity and track as it approaches the Chinese coast.
Anybody noticed that there has been lots of snow across parts of the Sierra's the past 24hrs.

Susie Martin Wx ‏@smartinWX 28m28 minutes ago
A rare July #snow in Tioga Pass #California! Via http://on.fb.me/1Csc4AO
Quoting 121. hurricanes2018:

I DO!!


You do a fine job buddy. Quiet you are but I always look at your post.
Regarding comment 96.
"Hi Wartsttocs, like JB stated all of Europe, not just a few areas. Looks like it's going to turn cool over their in the coming weeks."

Hi, I don't really understand that line of thought. So if all-time heat records are broken all over Alaska with 118F temps it isn't even close to the hottest ever because Death Valley is on the same continent even though they are climatologically different? That just seems like a weird way of thinking.
126. 882MB
Looking at the latest satellite loop of Atlantic, this is the cleanest I seen the Atlantic in a while, without that much SAL, also trade winds have relaxed a little. This will allow for SST's to increase in the next couple of weeks, in the MDR region. In 1997 hurricane Erika came pretty close to the NE Caribbean, and it was El Nino year, well we all know that. It was also the only major of that year. Erika was generated by a tropical wave that rolled off of Africa and did not find favorable conditions until the C-ATL. So don't just focus on the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, yes I know that's where the most favorable conditions are this year. But I just wanted to express a thought. Mother nature tends to give us surprises. Euro was sniffing something in the long run and the GFS continues to show something. I know its a long ways out, but it might be showing some type of better environment for these waves to hold on together, until they find better conditions, closer to the islands. So I wont be surprised if we see something in the MDR in the future, but more towards the peak of the season.



Hurricane Erika 1997





Quoting 125. wartsttocs:

Regarding comment 96.
"Hi Wartsttocs, like JB stated all of Europe, not just a few areas. Looks like it's going to turn cool over their in the coming weeks."

Hi, I don't really understand that line of thought. So if all-time heat records are broken all over Alaska with 118F temps it isn't even close to the hottest ever because Death Valley is on the same continent even though they are climatologically different? That just seems like a weird way of thinking.



Sort of like stretching the truth to make your point? The whole earth divided into 6 regions?

Quoting 97. maxcrc:



Those temperatures ARE ALL FAKE.
Death Valley record absolute record is 129F, only a real ignorant who lacks even the basics of climatology can believe to that scam, which was near 20F overestimated compared to its real temperature. The South America record is FAKE, with overestimation of more than 15F. And so on, that garbage of Tirats Tsvi IS A SCAM and as that ridicoulous joke of Kebili in Africa is MILLIONS times worse than Al AZizia and it was overestimating by 20-25F the temperature.
ALL temperatures reported in that map ARE FAKE, that Antarctica "record" is regularly beaten EVERY YEAR BY AT LEAST A DOZEN STATIONS. Joe Bastardi is not only a crook, but clearly an ignorant without any minimal knowledge of even the ABC of climatology. The only thing he is able to do is copying the tables of those inepts incompetents of the WMO, who have a total lack of even the basics of climatology.


This is not a comment, it is a character assassination. If you don't like what you see or read, grow up and increase your adult vocabulary.
Quoting 123. StormTrackerScott:

Anybody noticed that there has been lots of snow across parts of the Sierra's the past 24hrs.

Susie Martin Wx ‏@smartinWX 28m28 minutes ago
A rare July #snow in Tioga Pass #California! Via http://on.fb.me/1Csc4AO


Did you see Taz's post #52? He included a link to a Caltrans Twitter feed that has photos of it.
Quoting 125. wartsttocs:

Regarding comment 96.
"Hi Wartsttocs, like JB stated all of Europe, not just a few areas. Looks like it's going to turn cool over their in the coming weeks."

Hi, I don't really understand that line of thought. So if all-time heat records are broken all over Alaska with 118F temps it isn't even close to the hottest ever because Death Valley is on the same continent even though they are climatologically different? That just seems like a weird way of thinking.


I'd have gone with illogical rather than weird.
Quoting 95. LAbonbon:

Regarding Bastardi's tweet, this graphic was included. Apparently, to him, unless the highest record in a given region is exceeded, it doesn't count... So for us in the U.S., unless we hit a temperature higher than 134 (!), no matter how hot it gets, it won't really matter?


Of course, Big Joe uses things for his own purposes, but that's a legitimate WMO graphic. He's not technically lying, just distorting reality. I realize the 134 degree temperature at Greenland Ranch has been disputed but, as far as I know, the WMO is the custodian of world records, so the 134 stands until they say differently. Just to show how ridiculous his idea is though, since Greenland Ranch is in California, a high of 128 in downtown San Francisco wouldn't be any big deal since it wouldn't beat the state record!
Langranian field out 84 hours (Pouch tracking)

Quoting 126. 882MB:

Looking at the latest satellite loop of Atlantic, this is the cleanest I seen the Atlantic in a while, without that much SAL, also trade winds have relaxed a little. This will allow for SSt's to increase in the next couple of weeks, in the MDR region. In 1997 hurricane Erika came pretty close to the NE Caribbean, and it was El Nino year, well we all know that. Erika was generated by a tropical wave that rolled off of Africa and did not find favorable conditions until the C-ATL. So don't just focus on the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Mother nature tends to give us surprises. Euro was sniffing something in the long run and the GFS continues to show something. I know its a long ways out, but it might be showing some type of better environment for these waves to hold on together, until they find better conditions, closer to the islands. So I wont be surprised if we see something in the MDR in the future, but more towards the peak of the season.



Hurricane Erika






1997 also had a warm AMO vs this year. :'(
Quoting 128. MrNatural:



This is not a comment, it is a character assassination. If you don't like what you see or read, grow up and increase your adult vocabulary.

I don't know. It seems largely accurate if one is taking facts into account.
Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



"Climatic Ambulance Chasers" isn't funny?
Um, lets see -- nope, not funny.

Why would it be? It's not even original.
Linfa, whatever is left of the system, is forecast to re-enter the south china sea and make another landfall

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NANGKA (1511)
3:00 AM JST July 9 2015
==========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nangka (925 hPa) located at 18.2N 143.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 18.7N 141.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 19.0N 139.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
72 HRS: 20.6N 139.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM LINFA (1510)
3:00 AM JST July 10 2015
==========================
Overland Southern China

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Linfa (990 hPa) located at 22.3N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 19.0N 109.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Hainan Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (1509)
3:00 AM JST July 10 2015
==========================
about 120 KM East Northeast of Miyako-jima (Okinawa)


At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Chan-Hom (935 hPa) located at 25.1N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
140 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 27.5N 122.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
48 HRS: 30.5N 120.9E - 60 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Southwest Of Shanghai (China)
72 HRS: 33.9N 121.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Yellow Sea
Quoting 130. Grothar:







stormpetrol commented on the area in the SW Caribbean last night:

Quoting 264. stormpetrol:

Watch 12N/81W as the next AOI in the SW Caribbean, shear is high for now but decreasing throughout the day, just my take!
Quoting 101. yonzabam:



Don't know about that. I'm sure he thinks about his statistically significant enhanced salary.
He got "separated" from AccuWeather, right? Did he get a better paying gig?
Quoting 132. sar2401:

Of course, Big Joe uses things for his own purposes, but that's a legitimate WMO graphic. He's not technically lying, just distorting reality. I realize the 134 degree temperature at Greenland Ranch has been disputed but, as far as I know, the WMO is the custodian of world records, so the 134 stands until they say differently. Just to show how ridiculous his idea is though, since Greenland Ranch is in California, a high of 128 in downtown San Francisco wouldn't be any big deal since it wouldn't beat the state record!

The Antarctica record is out of date. Of course, his logic is deficient from the outset, so the data he uses become useless trivia.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
Shear has intensified to an all-time record summer max over Caribbean & Atlantic!

Shields up!
Quoting 112. NativeSun:

Pretty wild statement, and who are you? It's not only JB, but other forecasters over on the WB site, like Dr. Maue, and JD. Both excellent meteorologist and climate scientist, and what is your expertise in climate science? One thing I like about JB is he use analogs from past years to try to prove his points as the weather tries to repeat itself from years past. Not exactly the same but close in a lot of cases.

Joe Bastardi can’t even read a temperature anomaly map
Quoting 117. tampabaymatt:



So, because insurance companies are profitable, nobody should have insurance? The way insurance is intended to work is that a variety of people with various risk profiles pool together, which lowers the overall premium for all. If people that have low risk profiles for insurance all decided not to have it, the system would collapse and premiums would skyrocket. I’m not sure if you own a home, but hopefully you never have a catastrophe happen. You’ll wish you had insurance then.


Since I rent, it's all academic, but if I owned, nothing 'catastrophic' could happen (apart from a highly unlikely house fire). Here, in the UK, we don't get hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires or mesoscale storms. We get floods, but I'm not in a flood prone area.

We'll never know what percentage of insurance premiums fatten the bank accounts of fraudsters, but it's probably a lot more than insurance companies like to admit.
Quoting 135. Misanthroptimist:


I don't know. It seems largely accurate if one is taking facts into account.
Quoting 135. Misanthroptimist:


I don't know. It seems largely accurate if one is taking facts into account.


To lump all the fine hardworking folks at the WMO as "inept incompetents" is out of line.
This would be one sexy looking cyclone.


parts of Okinawa getting storm/typhoon force winds
Quoting 143. yonzabam:



Since I rent, it's all academic, but if I owned, nothing 'catastrophic' could happen (apart from a highly unlikely house fire). Here, in the UK, we don't get hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires or mesoscale storms. We get floods, but I'm not in a flood prone area.

We'll never know what percentage of insurance premiums fatten the bank accounts of fraudsters, but it's probably a lot more than insurance companies like to admit.


Pipes don't burst in the UK? Structural issues don't happen in the UK? I could go on further but you seem to have your mind made up.
Quoting 144. MrNatural:



To lump all the fine hardworking folks at the WMO as "inept incompetents" is out of line.

Agreed. I thought you were defending the inexcusable antics of Bastardi. Sorry for misinterpreting your point. My mistake.
Quoting 133. Grothar:

Langranian field out 84 hours (Pouch tracking)




If you wouldn't mind sharing your knowledge, what should I be seeing here? Many thing elude me and they elude faster as I age.
Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



"Climatic Ambulance Chasers" isn't funny?
Hush. They'll be here any second to perform damage control.
Quoting 119. yonzabam:



Correct. But, there's no mandatory house insurance in the UK, so I wouldn't have taken out any insurance for it even if I did own it. I rent a council house from local government.
You are quite wrong about that. If your home has a mortgage, the mortgage holder requires you to maintain insurance for at least the rebuild value of the house. That's no different in England than it is in the US. If you own a house free and clear, there is no law requiring to you carry insurance in the US either. There's no law requiring that you carry renter's insurance either, which I assume is what they were trying to sell you. Insurance is one of those things that's a terrible deal if you never need to make a claim. If you suffer something like a complete loss from fire or storm, having no insurance is going to be a really bad thing.
Quoting 138. LAbonbon:



stormpetrol commented on the area in the SW Caribbean last night:




Strong possibility of a system moving into the Gulf this week.
Quoting 143. yonzabam:



Since I rent, it's all academic, but if I owned, nothing 'catastrophic' could happen (apart from a highly unlikely house fire). Here, in the UK, we don't get hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires or mesoscale storms. We get floods, but I'm not in a flood prone area.

We'll never know what percentage of insurance premiums fatten the bank accounts of fraudsters, but it's probably a lot more than insurance companies like to admit.


1 in 4 chance of a fire in the home your living in in your life time .. guess you could afford to replace all your belongings ..
Quoting 133. Grothar:

Langranian field out 84 hours (Pouch tracking)




Hi Gro-

So you see any future blob in in the pouch patch?
Earth Quakes around the British Isles in the last 50 days..Link
Quoting 150. Grothar:




Moved to extreme


Science is about to learn a whole lot about how climate change, drought affect crops

A new letter in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) highlights an exciting new ability in global remote sensing: by using fluorescence data from satellites already in orbit, some scientists now believe they can provide a more accurate look at the level of photosynthetic activity in large vegetated areas. Even better, there’s already a super-powered successor satellite in the works, meaning that this new technique could shortly give scientists a much better understanding of how global food crops are responding to climate change.

Link
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:



Very true. I don't agree with some of the things he says but he always backs his data up to prove his point.
Pffttt. Bastardi is nothing but a BS'er. He backs up his BS with more BS.

Typical Bastardi nonsense:
"CO2 cannot cause global warming. I'll tell you why. It doesn't mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot -- it literally cannot cause global warming."

The man is a clown who hasn't a clue what he's talking about--and doesn't care to get one.
Quoting 143. yonzabam:



Since I rent, it's all academic, but if I owned, nothing 'catastrophic' could happen (apart from a highly unlikely house fire). Here, in the UK, we don't get hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires or mesoscale storms. We get floods, but I'm not in a flood prone area.

We'll never know what percentage of insurance premiums fatten the bank accounts of fraudsters, but it's probably a lot more than insurance companies like to admit.
Do they still have fire brigades in the UK?
Quoting 161. ColoradoBob1:

Science is about to learn a whole lot about how climate change, drought affect crops

A new letter in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) highlights an exciting new ability in global remote sensing: by using fluorescence data from satellites already in orbit, some scientists now believe they can provide a more accurate look at the level of photosynthetic activity in large vegetated areas. Even better, there’s already a super-powered successor satellite in the works, meaning that this new technique could shortly give scientists a much better understanding of how global food crops are responding to climate change.

Link


Remember when Landsat first sent down images of the earth's surface? It's amazing how far we have come.
Quoting 161. ColoradoBob1:

Science is about to learn a whole lot about how climate change, drought affect crops

A new letter in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) highlights an exciting new ability in global remote sensing: by using fluorescence data from satellites already in orbit, some scientists now believe they can provide a more accurate look at the level of photosynthetic activity in large vegetated areas. Even better, there’s already a super-powered successor satellite in the works, meaning that this new technique could shortly give scientists a much better understanding of how global food crops are responding to climate change.

Link

That's a pretty important line of information to develop. Food and water are going to be much bigger AGW-caused problems in the short term than anything else, imo.
Quoting 155. Grothar:



Strong possibility of a system moving into the Gulf this week.
Who said that Grothar? Just wondering.
Rain/storm shields are up again this afternoon for my immediate area. Despite low rain chances, robust storms have developed in the Orlando area and south, moving mostly west. Of course, they develop and build just downstream of me, leaving me high and dry again. Despite 1.25" of rain a few days ago, plants are already starting to wilt.
Quoting 141. Gearsts:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
Shear has intensified to an all-time record summer max over Caribbean & Atlantic!

Shields up!

@philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago
Shear in the Caribbean has been at full throttle since early May! Only one day with below normal shear since 5/6.

Latest update on Chan-hom:

Last Updated ‎7‎/‎9‎/‎2015, ‎2‎:‎00‎:‎00‎ ‎PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 25.1N 233.4E Movement NW at 14 mph
Wind 135 MPH

That is Cat 4 strength and I don't see an estimated pressure.

The more it strengthens now is bad news for China even though it will be weakening before landfall.

Quoting 153. LargoFl:


Not favorable until it goes into the gulf.
Quoting 154. sar2401:

You are quite wrong about that. If your home has a mortgage, the mortgage holder requires you to maintain insurance for at least the rebuild value of the house. That's no different England than it is in the US. If you own a house free and clear, there is no law requiring to you carry insurance in the US either. There's no law requiring that you carry renter's insurance either, which I assume is what they were trying to sell you. Insurance is one of those things That's a terrible deal if you never need to make a claim. If you suffer something like a complete loss from fire or storm, having no insurance is going to be a really bad thing.


I wasn't aware of mortgage companies' requirements. I was thinking in terms of owning the property outright. Insurance is one of those things that gives you peace of mind until you have to make a claim. Then the nightmare begins.

I read of one homeowner whose house was flooded in the recent Somerset levels floods, here in the UK. Because she hadn't informed the insurance company of a ditch 50 yards from her house, they refused to pay out. I get more peace of mind from not having insurance, than I would from dealing with shysters and subsidising crooks.

Quoting 167. HurrMichaelOrl:

Rain/storm shields are up again this afternoon for my immediate area. Despite low rain chances, robust storms have developed in the Orlando area and south, moving mostly west. Of course, they develop and build just downstream of me, leaving me high and dry again. Despite 1.25" of rain a few days ago, plants are already starting to wilt.
maybe they will move over here close to riverview, east of tampa, not much rain here since the middle of june. i know its scattered and depending on where you are but here not much and its HOT
Quoting 163. sar2401:

Do they still have fire brigades in the UK?


Yes, but most of their work involves cutting people free from car accidents. They do far less actual firefighting than in the past.
NMME showing warm MDR for next year?
Just spent a little bit of time looking for surge information for Chan-hom. Found this site, Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS), a UN/European Commission site that has some info. (Note - site is a bit slow to load.)

The storm surge is based on an experimental model, and you can watch a slow-motion animation. There's a tabulated summary of locations and modeled surge. They run the model with every advisory. Here are a couple of graphics from the site:


Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Surge:
Quoting 140. Misanthroptimist:


The Antarctica record is out of date. Of course, his logic is deficient from the outset, so the data he uses become useless trivia.
Not according to the WMO data it's not. There's an ongoing investigation into a higher temperature but, as of today, 59 degrees is the official record. Of course Bastardi's logic is deficient, but his data is not useless trivia. No matter how much you dislike the man, you should be able to separate that from the data he presents.
wartsttocs:
That is Cat 4 strength and I don't see an estimated pressure.



the estimated central pressure is reported from JMA, which is 935 hPa.
Quoting 175. LAbonbon:

Just spent a little bit of time looking for surge information for Chan-hom. Found this site, Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS), a UN/European Commission site that has some info. (Note - site is a bit slow to load.)

The storm surge is based on an experimental model, and you can watch a slow-motion animation. There's a tabulated summary of locations and modeled surge. They run the model with every advisory. Here are a couple of graphics from the site:


Cloud map. The map shows the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 58mph winds (orange) and cyclone wind strengths (red). (Source: JRC)

Surge:

Am I reading that surge map right? It looks like red is the lowest surge on that scale.
NOAA: Saharan Dust Clouds Suppressing Hurricanes

A satellite image taken Tuesday, July 7. The green area is dust making its way across the Atlantic.

South Florida's air has been dustier than usual this week.

The dust has come from across the Atlantic, originating from dust storms in the Sahara desert and being pushed towards the Americas by winds and tropical waves.

While the current influx of dust-filled air may be a hazard for people with respiratory conditions, scientists say it also brings with it a more positive effect.


Link
Quoting 149. JustDucky251:



If you wouldn't mind sharing your knowledge, what should I be seeing here? Many thing elude me and they elude faster as I age.



Atlantic

ECMWF Lagrangian products began 18 June 2015

Manual pouch-tracking will begin in mid-July 2015




The marsupial pouch of tropical cyclogenesis associated with African easterly waves. The dashed green contours depict the horizontal wind currents of the easterly wave in the earth-based reference frame in the lower atmosphere, which is usually open with an inverted V pattern. The solid black curves delineate the approximate boundary of the marsupial wave pouch as viewed moving with the easterly wave. The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel.

Once the “joey” has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave. The thick purple line (CL) and black line represent the critical latitude and the trough axis, respectively. The intersection of the critical line and the trough axis pinpoints the center of the pouch, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis.(Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton 2009).
Quoting 125. wartsttocs:

Regarding comment 96.
"Hi Wartsttocs, like JB stated all of Europe, not just a few areas. Looks like it's going to turn cool over their in the coming weeks."

Hi, I don't really understand that line of thought. So if all-time heat records are broken all over Alaska with 118F temps it isn't even close to the hottest ever because Death Valley is on the same continent even though they are climatologically different? That just seems like a weird way of thinking.

Quoting 175. LAbonbon:

Thanks for the link!

Quoting 178 sar2401

Looking at it carefully, I think that is correct. Note that the center of the track turns from red to orange to yellow as the storm move on land.
Guidance From The "Marsupial Paradigm" of tropical cyclogenesis from easterly waves

Guidance From The "Marsupial Paradigm" of tropical cyclogenesis from easterly waves

"Marsupial" tracking is a real-time, experimental forecast product to track the wave "pouch" and predict the tropical cyclogenesis location using global model operational data.
The product is based on the marsupial paradigm for tropical cyclogenesis presented in a recent study by Dunkerton, Montgomery and Wang 2008 (EGU's Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, hereafter DMW08). The marsupial paradigm indicates that the critical layer of a tropical easterly wave is important to tropical storm formation because (see the schematic on the right)

Hypothesis 1:
Wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides a favored region for the aggregation of vorticity seedlings and TC formation;
Hypothesis 2:
The wave critical layer is a region of closed circulation, where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected from dry air intrusion;
Hypothesis 3:
The parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.
It has been shown in DMW08 and Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton (2009, GLR) that genesis tends to occur near the intersection of the critical surface and the trough axis of the precursor parent wave, which is the center of the pouch.

The objective of marsupial tracking is to track the wave pouch (rather than the diabatic vortices inside the pouch), estimate its propagation speed and predict the genesis location, which can be used to provide useful guidance for flight planning during the NOAA hurricane field campaign as part of NOAA/IFEX and the upcoming field experiments NSF-PREDICT and NASA-GRIP in summer of 2010.

USA Today recently published an article on the research being done on the new paradigm of marsupial theory. A copy of the article that appeared in the print version is available for download as a PDF file.
Quoting 156. whitewabit:



1 in 4 chance of a fire in the home your living in in your life time .. guess you could afford to replace all your belongings ..


I think that 1 in 4 figure might include the likes of chip pan fires. I had one of those 30 years ago and it scorched the wall a bit. House fires are largely a thing of the past, when there were many more naked flames, and no smoke alarms. The three fires in my home town (pop 9,000) that I'm aware of in the past 20 years involved an empty house that the owner couldn't sell, a petrol station that was sold to an out of towner who didn't realise that a supermarket with petrol station had just opened in town, meaning he didn't have a monopoly any more, and a unit on an industrial estate. All were highly suspicious.

I could replace all my belongings with what I've got in the bank, yes. And, that ain't much.
Quoting 176. sar2401:

Not according to the WMO data it's not. There's an ongoing investigation into a higher temperature but, as of today, 59 degrees is the official record. Of course Bastardi's logic is deficient, but his data is not useless trivia. No matter how much you dislike the man, you should be able to separate that from the data he presents.

The data is wrong, whether it comes from the WMO or anyone else. Link

Edit to add: The data is indeed trivia if it is being used to attempt to prop up a logically deficient point.
Quoting 180. Patrap:




Atlantic

ECMWF Lagrangian products began 18 June 2015

Manual pouch-tracking will begin in mid-July 2015




The marsupial pouch of tropical cyclogenesis associated with African easterly waves. The dashed green contours depict the horizontal wind currents of the easterly wave in the earth-based reference frame in the lower atmosphere, which is usually open with an inverted V pattern. The solid black curves delineate the approximate boundary of the marsupial wave pouch as viewed moving with the easterly wave. The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel.

Once the “joey” has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave. The thick purple line (CL) and black line represent the critical latitude and the trough axis, respectively. The intersection of the critical line and the trough axis pinpoints the center of the pouch, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis.(Wang, Montgomery and Dunkerton 2009).


Thank you for everything (that I was able to understand at first pass). I will have to reread and reread to grasp it entirely, but thanks muchly. It starts me off with some useful knowledge.
Quoting 174. Gearsts:

NMME showing warm MDR for next year?

Link???
The two disturbances in the Central Pacific, 91C and 92C, look like they have been tropical depressions for most of today (or in 91C's case, most of yesterday as well). Not that I expect them to be upgrading any time soon since the performances of organizations outside the NHC are subpar.


Quoting 174. Gearsts:

NMME showing warm MDR for next year?
a warm MDR will be a rare sight given how the AMO has in my opinion switched back to negative. think the actual switch happened just before the 2012 season. since then the atlantic has been a hostile desert of futility.
Quoting 164. JustDucky251:



Remember when Landsat first sent down images of the earth's surface? It's amazing how far we have come.
And how little we really know.
Quoting 187. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Link???


Here it is.
Quoting 149. JustDucky251:



If you wouldn't mind sharing your knowledge, what should I be seeing here? Many thing elude me and they elude faster as I age.


Experimental models of pouch tracking (waves) from the Montgomery Research Group. Here is the link.

Link
Quoting 190. NativeSun:

And how little we really know.


True, so true. The more I know, the more I realize how little I know
Quoting 191. HurricaneAndre:



Here it is.
Is the CFS part of the NMME?
Quoting 143. yonzabam:



Here, in the UK, we don't get hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires or mesoscale storms. We get floods, but I'm not in a flood prone area.


We do get those 3 though :p Although tornadoes produced aren't normally very strong. They still do quite a bit of damage though. An F2 tornado hit Birmingham in 2005 and an F2 tornado hit London in 2006 (doing over $15 million in damage). An estimated F4 tornado hit London in 1091. If that were to happen again today, it'd likely cause huge amounts of damage.

There was a risk of mesoscale convective system developing in the southeast last week and between 1981-1997 there were an estimated 32 MCS, not including other mesoscale features. Link So that's about 2 MCS per year.

We get mainly grassland fires in the UK, but forest fires do occur and at least 150 hectares of forest burned each year between 1988-2002 (except 1998) . Link 2011 was a very bad year for forest fires too due to a dry spring and very warm April, with over 1,400 hectares of forest burned. Link
Quoting 192. Grothar:



Experimental models of pouch tracking (waves) from the Montgomery Research Group. Here is the link.

Link


Thanks so much. Between you and Patrap, I might actually learn something. Who says you can't teach a old dog new tricks.
Quoting 173. yonzabam:



Yes, but most of their work involves cutting people free from car accidents. They do far less actual firefighting than in the past.
That's also true in the US, but it doesn't mean there are never any home fires. There were about 41,000 dwelling fires in 2012-13 in the UK. If you can afford to replace everything you own then insurance is always a bad deal. If not, insurance might not be a bad deal. Depends on how lucky you feel. Insurance companies in the UK are regulated by the state, just as they are here. The amount of profit they can earn on things like homeowner's insurance is also regulated. You can look at their financial statements on line. While I'd be the last to argue that insurance companies don't manipulate accounting to maximize profits, there's only so much outright fraud they can commit before they caught.
Quoting 160. nrtiwlnvragn:



Moved to extreme





Yes, I saw that this morning. Note the purple on the east coast. Never, ever saw it this dry during the "rainy" season. And the intense heat. The Caribbean islands are having a rough go at it.
Quoting 191. HurricaneAndre:



Here it is.

Man that's hot. Well maybe we should all wait one more year, before declaring-AMO. Anyone agree???
Quoting 191. HurricaneAndre:



Here it is.

Man that's hot. Well maybe we should all wait one more year, before declaring-AMO. Anyone agree???
Quoting 200. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Man that's hot. Well maybe we should all wait one more year, before declaring-AMO. Anyone agree???
if you take 2012 2013 2014 and now this year into account, the signal from all those years shows characteristics consistent with a negative amo. even phil klotzbach thinks the amo flipped. 4 hurricane seasons in a row is good enough evidence for me but I'm not a professional so i can't be sure 100%
Very interesting and detailed discussion on the current el nino conditions, as well as what el nino has in store for where you live.Link
Quoting 178. sar2401:

Am I reading that surge map right? It looks like red is the lowest surge on that scale.
Quoting 182. JustDucky251:

Quoting 175. LAbonbon:

Thanks for the link!

Quoting 178 sar2401

Looking at it carefully, I think that is correct. Note that the center of the track turns from red to orange to yellow as the storm move on land.

Actually, it shows areas when you run the graphic, of black and blue, so they would be the lowest. But of 'surge', yes, red is the lowest, then orange, yellow, white.

Odd thing - in looking at the tabulated summary on the site that shows specific locations and modeled surge, I can't match any of them with 100% confidence to a map location. I know there's differences in the English spellings, and some are just off by one letter, but some I can't find. I can assume the ones that are off by one letter and are in the vicinity of expected landfall are the locations they modeled, but there's some I just can't figure out. :/

According to the most recent model results, max surge is 4.0 m - I'd show a map of the location, but that was one that didn't make any sense to me...
Quoting 185. Misanthroptimist:


The data is wrong, whether it comes from the WMO or anyone else. Link

Edit to add: The data is indeed trivia if it is being used to attempt to prop up a logically deficient point.
You did note the headline said "possible record", right? The dispute is the location of the temperature and if it's actually in Antarctica as defined by the WMO. As I said, 59 is the official record as of today. I'm not defending Bastardi's clearly deficient logic. I'm defending data from the WMO. When we attack the data Bastardi's using just because it's Bastardi's, we fall into the same logical trap as Bastardi.
Quoting 128. MrNatural:



This is not a comment, it is a character assassination. If you don't like what you see or read, grow up and increase your adult vocabulary.

A lot of that on here.
Enough weather for me - I'm headed offline. Hope you all have a lovely afternoon/evening.
Quoting 203. LAbonbon:


Actually, it shows areas when you run the graphic, of black and blue, so they would be the lowest. But of 'surge', yes, red is the lowest, then orange, yellow, white.

Odd thing - in looking at the tabulated summary on the site that shows specific locations and modeled surge, I can't match any of them with 100% confidence to a map location. I know there's differences in the English spellings, and some are just off my one letter, but some I can't find. I can assume the ones that are off by one letter and are in the vicinity of expected landfall are the locations they modeled, but there's some I just can't figure out. :/

According to the most recent model results, max surge is 4.0 m - I'd show a map of the location, but that was one that didn't make any sense to me...
The area of landfall is one of the most heavily populated in China. There are literally hundreds of towns and cities within 150 km of the center line. Transliteration from the Chinese alphabet to the Roman alphabet is an absolute mess. It all depends on what version of the Chinese alphabet is used and who's doing the transliteration. When I was there, I had a paper map and one on my phone. There were times that none of them agreed with the name of the town in Roman characters on the train departure boards. It was totally confusing at times, since one letter difference can mean a completely different pronunciation and meaning. There are also multiple towns with the same name in the same province, since many town names come from family names. I'm not surprised you can't match things up. While most of the focus is on Shanghai, there are also large cities near the point of landfall. Wenzhou (also spelled Wen-chou or Wenchou) has a population of 9 million.
Quoting 112. NativeSun:

[..] as the weather tries to repeat itself from years past. Not exactly the same but close in a lot of cases.


This is either like saying gravity repeats itself 'from years past' or verifiable nonsens.
Some of both, I presume, that is regularities in physics while OP talks nonsense.
It is possible to categorize circulation patterns for e.g. (half a) continent into say two dozen definite types lasting any length of time, and one category 'intermittent types' that can by def not last longer than a day or two. Then to check the database of synoptic charts, then to create a table of circulation types over time, typically some five or six dozen per year.
This has been done voor Europe using the Baur Classification.
It is found that circulation patterns follow each other randomly.
In fact, the weather has lost about all its 'memory' after less than two weeks.
Weather 'tries' absolutely nothing. What superstition.
Quoting 200. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Man that's hot. Well maybe we should all wait one more year, before declaring-AMO. Anyone agree???
It's generally not a good idea to much faith in a model that's one year out.
Quoting 201. wunderweatherman123:

if you take 2012 2013 2014 and now this year into account, the signal from all those years shows characteristics consistent with a negative amo. even phil klotzbach thinks the amo flipped. 4 hurricane seasons in a row is good enough evidence for me but I'm not a professional so i can't be sure 100%


The AMO was positive in 2012 and was an above average season both in storms 19-10-2 and ACE 133. In 2013 the AMO was positive, but it was certainly a strange year. The AMO was also positive in 2014, but there was a developing El Nino which established itself late in the year as a weak El Nino and this year is set to have at least a moderate-strong event in place by the peak of the hurricane season.

I'd give it another year or two before coming to any conclusions as the last few years have been rather strange in some ways, including the unprecedented season that was 2013.
Quoting 204. sar2401:

You did note the headline said "possible record", right? The dispute is the location of the temperature and if it's actually in Antarctica as defined by the WMO. As I said, 59 is the official record as of today. I'm not defending Bastardi's clearly deficient logic. I'm defending data from the WMO. When we attack the data Bastardi's using just because it's Bastardi's, we fall into the same logical trap as Bastardi.

Nonsense. If a piece of data is out of date, it's out of date. Noting that it is out of date isn't an attack. The new high temperature was measured at a scientific research base that happens to be on a peninsula attached to Antarctica good and proper, so any such dispute is rather silly. Apparently, the WMO has a lot of paperwork to catch up on. That doesn't change the 24March2015 temperature by even a fraction of a degree. Maybe they also need to study a map. lol

Speaking of silly, I think we've both wasted enough time on this.
In Middle Tennessee, we have the good luck of having retail agents that don't tell customers that they live in a flood plain and need flood insurance. This was all fine and dandy until we got hit by the flood of 2010...when the tops of our hills were little islands amongst raging creeks.

The man who built my house relocated to the bottom of the hill and used 100 year flood maps to build his house. He wasn't flooded.

However, on the boom town side of Nashville, hundreds were, despite the same flood maps. Difference was, those people had homes built in land marked as "farmland next to river" which is assumed to be floodplain. The road they lived on was "River Bottom Dr." and yet the homeowners never thought about flood insurance and the retail agents told them it wouldn't flood.

A man who owns a canoe rental north of town on the Red River had water up to the top of his business. That's 43 feet above flood stage, breaking the old record by a sizeable amount. He HAD flood insurance for over 40 years, but it was too expensive so he dropped it...the year before the flood.


Precipitable water
36 hours


We got rocked on the westside of Longwood. Coming home Welch RD was flooded in spots due to all the excessive rains in this area this month and last month too.
Another day of dangerous lightning here. Captured some amazing shots as one bolt had 6 legs coming down from the main trunk and yes I said trunk as the thing was very wide.
Quoting 211. Misanthroptimist:


Nonsense. If a piece of data is out of date, it's out of date. Noting that it is out of date isn't an attack. The new high temperature was measured at a scientific research base that happens to be on a peninsula attached to Antarctica good and proper, so any such dispute is rather silly. Apparently, the WMO has a lot of paperwork to catch up on. That doesn't change the 24March2015 temperature by even a fraction of a degree. Maybe they also need to study a map. lol

Speaking of silly, I think we've both wasted enough time on this.
The WMO gets to decide world records, not you or me. That was my only point.
CMC ????


Quoting 213. Grothar:



Precipitable water
36 hours





Quoting 215. StormTrackerScott:

Another day of dangerous lightning here. Captured some amazing shots as one bolt had 6 legs coming down from the main trunk and yes I said trunk as the thing was very wide.


Lightning capital of the world...
There has been no shortage of waves this year but like the Caribbean as soon as they are under the influence of that epic Bermuda high and sal then evaporate

Quoting 53. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Look at that Cape Verde Wave Train!!!
no action in mdr? its normal especially for this mid july. what is not normal is west africas deep convection. it was like this last yr when we lost an airliner over chad. this energy should transfer over the eastern atlantic soon..
SAL and Shear tear them apart. Bermuda High just keeps them South if they should form.
223. JLPR2
This gives me hope for rain in the future. The TWs are looking healthier and larger, with moisture reaching 20N near the coast of W. Africa; also compared to the last few weeks the SAL in the CATL is weaker.

African wave train warming up?


warning!!!! severe weather in the northeast right now!!
Quoting 223. JLPR2:

This gives me hope for rain in the future. The TWs are looking healthier and larger, with moisture reaching 20N near the coast of W. Africa; also compared to the last few weeks the SAL in the CATL is weaker.




The positive phase of the MJO is in the Atlantic now and should stay here for at least the next 2 weeks. So I assume that is helping to enhance some of the tropical waves and will hopefully help those tropical waves humect the eastern/central Atlantic and deliver rain to the caribbean.
Quoting 224. nrtiwlnvragn:

African wave train warming up?





Waves still not reaching SA. Won't do much until they can clear NE SA.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

The WMO gets to decide world records, not you or me.

Almost right. They get to decide what they regard as world records. Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever.
Quoting 229. Misanthroptimist:


Almost right. They get to decide what they regard as world records. Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever.


None of us has much affect on reality, but scientists must plug on to find out what the present reality is. Unfortunately, like buying a new high tech device, as soon as you have found it the data is obsolete.
Quoting 171. yonzabam:



I wasn't aware of mortgage companies' requirements. I was thinking in terms of owning the property outright. Insurance is one of those things that gives you peace of mind until you have to make a claim. Then the nightmare begins.

I read of one homeowner whose house was flooded in the recent Somerset levels floods, here in the UK. Because she hadn't informed the insurance company of a ditch 50 yards from her house, they refused to pay out. I get more peace of mind from not having insurance, than I would from dealing with shysters and subsidising crooks.




One of my neighbors, about 5 houses down, came home about 6 months ago and her house was completely flooded due to a burst pipe. Her entire house had to be gutted to the studs. I'm sure she was pretty happy she had insurance. If you want to take the risk that nothing catastrophic will ever happen to your home, that is a dangerous gamble and I wish you the best. But, most people would rather protect themselves against this and purchase insurance. And that is why insurance works, because a large group of people pool their risk together. If everyone had your approach to insurance, the system would crumble.
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The two disturbances in the Central Pacific, 91C and 92C, look like they have been tropical depressions for most of today (or in 91C's case, most of yesterday as well). Not that I expect them to be upgrading any time soon since the performances of organizations outside the NHC are subpar.





Aww come on Cody, cut Honolulu some slack. If you were a meteorologist in Hawaii...seriously...how much attention would you pay to some piddly thing in the ocean? Just because you're a bored teenager in North Carolina...
Global sea levels have risen six meters or more with just slight global warming

A new review analyzing three decades of research on the historic effects of melting polar ice sheets found that global sea levels have risen at least six meters, or about 20 feet, above present levels on multiple occasions over the past three million years.

What is most concerning, scientists say, is that amount of melting was caused by an increase of only 1-2 degrees (Celsius) in global mean temperatures.

Results of the study are being published this week in the journal Science.


Link
Quoting 224. nrtiwlnvragn:

African wave train warming up?




Too bad they'll be destroyed by either the massive amounts of SAL east of the Lesser Antilles or the 70kts+ of shear in the Caribbean. ;)
Quoting 197. sar2401:

That's also true in the US, but it doesn't mean there are never any home fires. There were about 41,000 dwelling fires in 2012-13 in the UK. If you can afford to replace everything you own then insurance is always a bad deal. If not, insurance might not be a bad deal. Depends on how lucky you feel. Insurance companies in the UK are regulated by the state, just as they are here. The amount of profit they can earn on things like homeowner's insurance is also regulated. You can look at their financial statements on line. While I'd be the last to argue that insurance companies don't manipulate accounting to maximize profits, there's only so much outright fraud they can commit before they caught.


Why is insurance a bad deal if you can afford to replace everything you own? Let's say, for example, I purchase a home for $300k and have enough in the bank to cover that. Then, a year after I buy the home, it burns to the ground. Wouldn't I rather have paid a year's worth of premium and get made whole than shell all of that out of my own pocket? Sorry but I don't follow your logic.
Quoting 234. ColoradoBob1:

Global sea levels have risen six meters or more with just slight global warming

A new review analyzing three decades of research on the historic effects of melting polar ice sheets found that global sea levels have risen at least six meters, or about 20 feet, above present levels on multiple occasions over the past three million years.

What is most concerning, scientists say, is that amount of melting was caused by an increase of only 1-2 degrees (Celsius) in global mean temperatures.

Results of the study are being published this week in the journal Science.


Link


Lucy's descendents have coped with those variations for the last three million years. If we can't then evolution has found a wrong turn in us - maybe a dead end.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Quoting 87. ricderr:

Claims history is a big factor in determining premiums as well.

exactly....it shows the outcome of the risk.......

Claims history is still a big factor in El Paso, and most of the country outside of Florida. Here in Florida, we got slammed by the Geneva accords that changed the risk profile for extreme weather(apart from rising seas), and this raised every citizen's rate(and it's only gonna' get worse even with no storms), even those inland. Florida is a special case that calls for a different solution apart from backing big business a la Scott. Perhaps as per Patraps link a state subsidized insurance that would cover the first $30,000-50,000 might be a good start.
.
The whole subject of home insurance and it's connection with climate change I could talk about plenty. It effects me, my neighbors, and all citizens in Florida. And it's coming to you if they change the risk profile for floods in Texas, or tornados in Colorado, or extreme rains in Pennsylvania, etc. Climate change science is real settled science, but we don't have anything near a peer-reviewed consensus on what it means weather-wise. It could mean less extreme weather in Florida, less claims from fewer and weaker hurricanes....maybe more in the mid-latitudes. In the meantime, citizens on the margins are getting priced out of Florida. As the insurance and reinsurance corporations take every opportunity to raise rates as per the more and more hypotheses. Today it's Florida....tomorrow it could be Maryland or Virginia or Texas, even inland.


wow look at the eye of this Typhoon maybe a cat 5 soon
Quoting 241. CosmicEvents:


Claims history is still a big factor in El Paso, and most of the country outside of Florida. Here in Florida, we got slammed by the Geneva accords that changed the risk profile for extreme weather(apart from rising seas), and this raised every citizen's rate(and it's only gonna' get worse even with no storms), even those inland. Florida is a special case that calls for a different solution apart from backing big business a la Scott. Perhaps as per Patraps link a state subsidized insurance that would cover the first $30,000-50,000 might be a good start.
.
The whole subject of home insurance and it's connection with climate change I could talk about plenty. It effects me, my neighbors, and all citizens in Florida. And it's coming to you if they change the risk profile for floods in Texas, or tornados in Colorado, or extreme rains in Pennsylvania, etc. Climate change science is real settled science, but we don't have anything near a peer-reviewed consensus on what it means weather-wise. It could mean less extreme weather in Florida, less claims from fewer and weaker hurricanes....maybe more in the mid-latitudes. In the meantime, citizens on the margins are getting priced out of Florida. As the insurance and reinsurance corporations take every opportunity to raise rates as per the more and more hypotheses. Today it's Florida....tomorrow it could be Maryland or Virginia or Texas, even inland.


Seems to me that as water levels rise, and they will, the rivers that have the least gradient as they approach their mouth are the ones most prone to having their banks pushed back. If I were to start planning, I would concentrate on those areas where flooding will push inland farthest. On the coasts one can clearly see the danger, but danger that sneaks in the back door is worse.
Quoting 239. JustDucky251:



Lucy's descendents have coped with those variations for the last three million years. If we can't then evolution has found a wrong turn in us - maybe a dead end.


None of Her offspring until us recently, have had the capacity to shape and change the atmospheres balance that has supported all going back to Her.


When I was born the CO2 was 87 ppm less than today,. 402.80

Thats only 55.5 years.

The last time Earth warmed 4-7C it took 12,500 years.

We're on a curved path to do it in 300-400 years,with 170 of them behind us.








Quoting 232. Astrometeor:



Aww come on Cody, cut Honolulu some slack. If you were a meteorologist in Hawaii...seriously...how much attention would you pay to some piddly thing in the ocean? Just because you're a bored teenager in North Carolina...

Well, considering it's their job...

Quoting 236. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Too bad they'll be destroyed by either the massive amounts of SAL east of the Lesser Antilles or the 70kts+ of shear in the Caribbean. ;)


Shear does begin to decrease.......

Times like this, I'm darned glad my housemates have accepted Thor, the Aesir of thunder and lightning, as patron for their children. :)



Added for your amusement:

Quoting 244. Patrap:



None of Her offspring until us recently, have had the capacity to shape and change the atmospheres balance that has supported all going back to Her.


When I was born the CO2 was 87 ppm less than today,. 402.80

Thats only 55.5 years.

The last time Earth warmed 4-7C it took 12,500 years.

We're on a curved path to do it in 300-400 years,with 170 of them behind us.











As I said, maybe we are an evolutionary dead end if we can't deal with it successfully. We may have clevered ourselves into non-existence.
What the hell is wrong with this satellites images? They has not updated since 16:32 UTC -.-"
250. flsky
One thing to keep in mind - if your home is severly damaged or destroyed and you're in a federally declared disaster area, AND your insurance doesn't cover enough, make sure you apply for FEMA assistance. Most people seem to think that the feds won't help if you have insurance. This is especially true with floods. A lot of people think they're covered by their insurance company when they're not. One caveat, once you receive assistance from FEMA for a flood, you will be required to buy flood insurance from then on.



Quoting 231. tampabaymatt:



One of my neighbors, about 5 houses down, came home about 6 months ago and her house was completely flooded due to a burst pipe. Her entire house had to be gutted to the studs. I'm sure she was pretty happy she had insurance. If you want to take the risk that nothing catastrophic will ever happen to your home, that is a dangerous gamble and I wish you the best. But, most people would rather protect themselves against this and purchase insurance. And that is why insurance works, because a large group of people pool their risk together. If everyone had your approach to insurance, the system would crumble.
Sun Rays Light Up Rainbow Over New Orleans - July 9, 2015






Eyewall Replacement Cycle:
JMA began operation of Himawari-8 on 7 July 2015 as a replacement for MTSAT-2 (also known as Himawari-7). Himawari-9 will also be launched in 2016 as a backup and successor satellite. Both satellites will be located in orbit at around 140 degrees east, and will observe the East Asia and Western Pacific regions for a period of 15 years. All imagery derived from Himawari-8/9 is and will be distributed to NMHSs via an Internet cloud service. JMA has further launched its HimawariCast service, by which primary sets of imagery are disseminated to NMHSs via a communication satellite. Click here for details.
Why the Earth’s past has scientists so worried about sea level rise
By Chris Mooney

Link

Chris Mooney does a good job on back ground on this paper .
Quoting 229. Misanthroptimist:


Almost right. They get to decide what they regard as world records. Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever.


Lmao. You've got to be kidding...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 255. ColoradoBob1:

Why the Earth’s past has scientists so worried about sea level rise
By Chris Mooney

Link

Chris Mooney does a good job on back ground on this paper .


Overall, I like the article - despite even the flaws they point out themselves.
Toxic algae confirmed in Willamette River's Ross Island Lagoon



Blue-green algae found last week in the Willamette River's Ross Island Lagoon has reached toxic levels for humans and pets.

Link
Quoting 256. Webberweather53:



Lmao. You've got to be kidding...

Really? You think bureaucrats dictate to physics? If so, no wonder you're laughing. It's a very funny position.

.
Quoting 260. Misanthroptimist:


Really? You think bureaucrats dictate to physics? If so, no wonder you're laughing. It's a very funny position.




Did you even bother to read the article Sar sent you much less do you have any idea how assessing temperature records works? Obviously not...
The high is also creating a tight pressures gradient and higher than normal trades and sinking air
Quoting 222. Dakster:

SAL and Shear tear them apart. Bermuda High just keeps them South if they should form.