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Typhoon Chan-hom Heads for China; Invest 96E a Threat to Hawaii

By: Jeff Masters 4:22 PM GMT on July 07, 2015

Category 1 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed westwards towards China, where it is expected to make landfall on Friday or Saturday. Chan-hom passed just north of Guam on Sunday, bringing sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 62 mph, to Andersen Air Base; a 3-day rainfall total of 13.83" was recorded. Satellite images show that Chan-hom is a large storm with a prominent eye, and it is expected to take advantage of moderate wind shear and very warm ocean waters and intensify into a Category 4 storm by Thursday.


Figure 1. Triple trouble in the Pacific. From left to right: Tropical Storm Linfa in the South China Sea, Category 1 Typhoon Chan-Hom, and Category 3 Typhoon Nangka. Image was taken by the JMA MTSAT-2 satellite at 0230Z on July 7, 2015. Typhoon Nangka is expected to intensify to Category 5 strength and pass near the uninhabited island of Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday. Nangka could threaten Japan 8 - 10 days from now as a weaker storm. Tropical Storm Linfa hit the Philippines' northern island of Luzon over the weekend, and is expected to make landfall in China on Thursday as a tropical storm. Image credit: NOAA Viz Lab.

Forecast for Chan-hom
Chan-hom will be steered by a strong ridge of high pressure towards the west-northwest through Thursday, when the typhoon will pass near Miyakojima in the Miyako Islands of Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. Chan-hom is then likely to make landfall in Mainland China north of Taiwan on Friday afternoon or Saturday morning. However, landfall in China is not a sure thing, as a strong trough of low pressure is expected to turn the typhoon northwards as the center nears the coast on Friday. A potential worst-case scenario would be if Chan-hom turns northwards just before hitting the coast, and passes just offshore and very close to Shanghai as a Category 1 or stronger typhoon. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm could then potentially bring a significant storm surge to China's most populous city (14 million people.) The majority of Shanghai lies less than 2 meters (6.6 feet) above sea level, and the city is very vulnerable to flooding from storm surge and the heavy rains of typhoons. Shanghai is very important economically--about 14% of China's freight goes through the city. The models are divided in how they handle the trough of low pressure that Chan-hom will encounter late this week, and it is too early to say how much concern we should have for this worst-case scenario. According to 2011 New York Times article, engineers have stretched hundreds of miles of levees along the Yangtze River where it meets the sea in the city. The lowest of those levees were built to withstand a one-in-1,000-year storm surge, and defended Shanghai against the highest tidal surge in modern times, which came during Typhoon Winnie of 1997.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Invest 96E.

Invest 96E a threat to Hawaii
Hawaii needs to watch Invest 96E, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island. Satellite loops show that 96E is close to tropical depression status, with a pronounced low-level spin and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is light, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, near 27.5°C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Friday, and ocean temperatures would cool to a marginal 26°C. These conditions should prevent rapid intensification of 96E. Our two most reliable track models, the GFS and European models, show 96E coming within 200 miles of the Hawaiian Islands on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 96E on Wednesday afternoon.

Hawaii has seen an unusual amount of hurricane activity over the past three years. Tropical Storm Flossie passed with 100 miles of the islands in 2013, and an unprecedented three hurricanes in one year passed within 200 miles of Hawaii in 2014. This included Hurricane Iselle, which made landfall on the Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds--only the second recorded landfall of a tropical storm on the Big Island. Warmer than average ocean temperatures have made this action possible--ocean temperatures along the track of Invest 96E are about 2°F above average, similar to what was seen in 2014.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Just missed the tail-end of the last blog, so this will go here also
Quoting 496. Barefootontherocks:

Oklahoma Rain
The storm line crossing OK last evening dissipated in the wee hours. Wishcasts notwithstanding and as forecasted by NWS, yesterday's highest rainfall totals are in Northern OK, especially NW OK. Will Rogers Airport, the official site for OKC weather, shows 0.57" of rainfall before the storms dissipated.


image credit: OK mesonet

Today's rain forecasts, through Thursday a.m. Flash flood watches are out for most of Oklahoma.

Thanks!
Thanks Doc.
Pretty and deadly, that typhoon sat pic.
And that's all... :)
Impressive:
Thanks Doc!
Quoting 4. Barefootontherocks:

Pretty and deadly, that typhoon sat pic.
And that's all... :)


Almost looks like a conga line.

Ba-da-da-da-da-da-DAT
In the next advisory Nangka will become a hypercane.




MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0322...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX/SOUTHEASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN
AR/SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 071546Z - 072046Z

SUMMARY...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AXIS
OF STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN IL/MO BACK INTO
EASTERN OK/NORTHWESTERN AR. MEANWHILE...FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL TX. IT APPEARS RECENT
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE AREAS ADJOINING ALONG A WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RATES
WHILE 6 HOUR AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE
2 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SEEN IN MANY OF THE 12Z RAOBS...EXPECT
TRAINING/SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
ENCOMPASSED IN THE MPD AREA. THE 15Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
DEPICTS AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPES IN THE 1000
TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WHICH HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WHILE THE BETTER FOCUS SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO THE PARENT FRONTAL ZONE.

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PREVIOUS
HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING.


YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quite the train in the Pacific! We'll see a lot of activity in that ocean this year...

Quoting 8. pablosyn:

In the next advisory Nangka will become a hypercane.



well the waters would need to be at least 47 C to support a hypercane and its pressure would likely be under 700 mb. I wonder if it would actually be possible to fly into hypercane at a higher altitude. Doc. Masters flew into Cat 5 Hugo at 1 500 feet and nearly got killed, very interesting read by the way.
Thank You so much Dr. for the expert analysis and your usual detailed outlook on "down stream" issues and potential impacts. Officials in Shanghai should pay close attention to Chan-Hom and take the appropriate precautions. With all of that shipping traffic, and international freighter traffic at that, moving shipping around to avoid impacts from this storm is going to be a logistical nightmare.

Thanks Doc...
The Pacific is rockin' it, but the Atlantic looks so dull that it's not even funny. IMO, no Claudette until August.

Thanks for the update Doc! Yes, the Atlantic looks like a ghost town when it comes to tropical activity!
It s very interesting that Chan hom and Linfa are both targeting the Grand final locations (Chan hom is targeting Yangtze river delta and this would be indeed the worst case scenario.
Then there is Linfa, which is eying an even more dangerous spot and the single most dangerous spot in the pacific- the Pearl river delta.

Interesting blurb from a Chinese News site on current record low temps in Shanghai (related to the rains) and the approaching storms; good site to monitor in the coming days for Chinese weather issues:

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-07/07/con tent_21198003.htm

Shanghai recorded its lowest temperature in 145 years on Monday, with the mercury dipping to 17.3 degree Celsius, close to the historic maximum temperature of 15.9 degree Celsius on July 2, 1876, according to wenhui.news365.com.cn.

The day's high was 21.2 degree Celsius, paralleling with that on July 6, 1903, and the average temperature was 18.9 degree Celsius, making it the lowest average temperature in July in 142 years since 1873.

Meteorologist Zhang Ruiyi said the record low temperature is a result of days of rains under cold air mass as the city is in the middle of the monsoon season.

The weather is expected to get cooler as three typhoons are approaching coastal China, which may bring gales and rainstorms to an already flooded coastal parts of China.

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) predicted that among the three typhoons Chan-hom, Linfa and Nangka that had formed on the northwest Pacific, Chan-hom and Linfa will affect China in the coming days.

Chan-hom, the ninth typhoon this year, was located about 1,950 kilometers southeast of the Diaoyu Islands at 5 pm, the NMC said. It is strengthening while barreling northwest toward the Chinese mainland and is expected to lash country's eastern coast on Friday.

Thanks for the new post Dr. Masters,


Toronto is about to get hit with some heavy rain.
Thank you Dr. Masters for the informative blog about the Pacific highlights of the coming week!

It could be the tip of the melting iceberg from the point of view of hurricane activity for Hawaii with this increased ocean heat, also taking into account the possible El Nino factor.

The China levee building may come to a pointless end soon with the potential sea level rises, leading to the displacement of another 14 million people at least and probably a lot more.

On a separate note Greenland seems to be heading for more than a 50% surface temp above freezing point over the next week, or so I read in some linked article Colorado Bob mentioned.

Added to all this is the misery of the west coast wild fires especially in the Vancouver area.

Temps here in Spain heading for 45/C or about 110/F . A few scattered thunder storms dropped the temp here this afternoon from 42/C to 36/C for a while.
Quoting 14. CybrTeddy:

The Pacific is rockin' it, but the Atlantic looks so dull that it's not even funny. IMO, no Claudette until August.


I hate the Atlantic this year. Why do they have to suffer during El Nino. When will it be our turn.
The weather is expected to get cooler as three typhoons are approaching coastal China, which may bring gales and rainstorms to an already flooded coastal parts of China.


doesn't this wording seem rather mild or is it just me?
Quoting 5. pablosyn:

Impressive:

Come on Atlantic do something.
Not if they build the islands up high enough. Just how high are you predicting this sea level rise? 50'?

Anyone else worried that Mt. Saint Helens is building a new lava dome bigger than the old lava dome? And that ice/galciers are forming over it. Isn't that like a cork in a bottle that leads to pressure build up and and eventual eruption? It isn't like its a dormant volcano.

other-glaciers-retreat-glacier-mount-st-helens-gr ows
Quoting 14. CybrTeddy:

The Pacific is rockin' it, but the Atlantic looks so dull that it's not even funny. IMO, no Claudette until August.



That satellite really tells the story. Going to be quiet for a while. Any forecast of the MJO moving into the Atlantic basin this month?
Quoting 21. HurricaneAndre:

I hate the Atlantic this year. Why do they have to suffer during El Nino. When will it be our turn.


Be best if weren't our turn. Those storms cause damage.
Quoting 25. Dakster:

Not if they build the islands up high enough. Just how high are you predicting this sea level rise? 50'?

Anyone else worried that Mt. Saint Helens is building a new lava dome bigger than the old lava dome? And that ice/galciers are forming over it. Isn't that like a cork in a bottle that leads to pressure build up and and eventual eruption? It isn't like its a dormant volcano.

other-glaciers-retreat-glacier-mount-st-helens-gr ows


What's puzzling me is why the heat from the lava building the dome isn't melting the glacier. If the lava is that thick and is still growing the dome.... Anyone heard about Pompei?
Quoting 25. Dakster:

Not if they build the islands up high enough. Just how high are you predicting this sea level rise? 50'?

Anyone else worried that Mt. Saint Helens is building a new lava dome bigger than the old lava dome? And that ice/galciers are forming over it. Isn't that like a cork in a bottle that leads to pressure build up and and eventual eruption? It isn't like its a dormant volcano.

other-glaciers-retreat-glacier-mount-st-helens-gr ows
Not worried. MSH will certainly erupt again in the (geological) near future, and in fact will probably do so before any of the other Cascade volcanoes. However, Crater Glacier is able to grow only because it sits at the base of the steep, north-facing cliffs on the caldera's south side that protect it from much of the sun and heat that's eating up other, more exposed ice fields. Besides, the relatively thin glacier there doesn't provide much of an impediment to extruding lava; as happened in 2004, the dome lava simply brushes aside Crater Glacier when it grows.
Quoting 28. JustDucky251:



What's puzzling me is why the heat from the lava building the dome isn't melting the glacier. If the lava is that thick and is still growing the dome.... Anyone heard about Pompei?


They article said the way the dome formed it is shielding the heat from melting the snow/ice. Which isn't good, IMHO... I would rather the lava vent off than stay trapped.
Quoting 29. Neapolitan:

Not worried. MSH will certainly erupt again in the (geological) near future, and in fact will probably do so before any of the other Cascade volcanoes. However, Crater Glacier is able to grow only because it sits at the base of the steep, north-facing cliffs on the caldera's south side that protect it from much of the sun and heat that's eating up other, more exposed ice fields. Besides, the relatively thin glacier there doesn't provide much of an impediment to extruding lava; as happened in 2004, the dome lava simply brushes aside Crater Glacier when it grows.


Hope you are correct - and you seem to know a whole lot more about it than I do.

I'll take a MSH eruption over the super volcano in Yellowstone.
Quoting 27. JustDucky251:



Be best if weren't our turn. Those storms cause damage.
you know we're due for one. So when will it be. Idk.
My new predictions are 3,1,0.
Quoting 31. Dakster:

I'll take a MSH eruption over the super volcano in Yellowstone.
Yes. x 100000.
Quoting 32. HurricaneAndre:

you know we're due for one. So when will it be. Idk.


Overdo... And I hope that means we 'skipped' our turn this time... But I won't hold my breath either.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:00 AM HST July 7 2015
===========================

Showers and thunderstorms persist near a weak, nearly stationary, surface low located about 750 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for significant development in this area during the next two days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: VERY LOW
Thursday: LOW

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development of this system as it moves slowly toward the north or northwest over the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: MODERATE

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT July 7 2015
==================

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical cyclone will likely form later today or tonight while the system moves west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Tuesday: HIGH
Wednesday: HIGH
Thursday: HIGH

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is possible by this weekend while the low moving west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: VERY LOW
Thursday: VERY LOW
Quoting 21. HurricaneAndre:

I hate the Atlantic this year. Why do they have to suffer during El Nino. When will it be our turn.


A mentor once told me, as I was watching a line of severe thunderstorms bear down on my area

"George when you own a house and have a wife and children, your attitude towards severe weather is going to change"

He was right. With a family and home I don't want severe weather anywhere near me.. ever! This includes tropical cyclones.

Quiet Atlantic is good!
Quoting 32. HurricaneAndre:

you know we're due for one. So when will it be. Idk.


No more than we're due for a "heads" after four consecutive "tails" in the
coin toss. The chance is still 50/50.
ECMWF is still not budging--917mb into eastern China.

Quoting 20. PlazaRed:

Thank you Dr. Masters for the informative blog about the Pacific highlights of the coming week!

It could be the tip of the melting iceberg from the point of view of hurricane activity for Hawaii with this increased ocean heat, also taking into account the possible El Nino factor.

The China levee building may come to a pointless end soon with the potential sea level rises, leading to the displacement of another 14 million people at least and probably a lot more.

On a separate note Greenland seems to be heading for more than a 50% surface temp above freezing point over the next week, or so I read in some linked article Colorado Bob mentioned.

Added to all this is the misery of the west coast wild fires especially in the Vancouver area.

Temps here in Spain heading for 45/C or about 110/F . A few scattered thunder storms dropped the temp here this afternoon from 42/C to 36/C for a while.


I've been monitoring the heat in Spain for a while now, my wife is from Madrid. Her parents said this is one of the worst heat waves they said they can remember with no let up in sight in the near term forecast. Currently 102 in Seville and 99 in Madrid and it's the evening there.

My new predictions are 3,1,0.


ok andy........time to learn a little patience.........while you're waiting look up how many storms on an average year we should be at right now....then look at junes average amount of storms......and without even taking into account el nino which should make things slower......how are we averaging this year

and for extra credit....look at say 2004 (active) and 2005 (active on steroids) and tell us how long a stretch we had between storms june and july


Quoting 34. Neapolitan:

Yes. x 100000.


Or Rainer or Shasta.
Quoting 37. georgevandenberghe:



A mentor once told me, as I was watching a line of severe thunderstorms bear down on my area

"George when you own a house and have a wife and children, your attitude towards severe weather is going to change"

He was right. With a family and home I don't want severe weather anywhere near me.. ever! This includes tropical cyclones.

Quiet Atlantic is good!


It’s funny you should write this. My outlook on severe weather, or heck, even weather in general, totally changed when I bought a home with my wife and had children. It boggles my mind when I read on here that some people hope for an active Atlantic season with landfalling tropical systems. But, I guess, depending on where you’re at in life, it might not matter to some people. I’m only 34 years old, but to me it seems like the propensity of severe weather is increasing, probably due to a warming climate. Just adds another fun wrinkle to the beauty of home ownership 
Pakistan headed for water, food and energy disaster, NA committee told

The Ministry for Climate Change on Tuesday warned that in the next five years there will be serious complications regarding water scarcity, food shortage and energy crisis, if precautionary measures are not taken to tackle climate change in Pakistan.

“It will not only have an impact on human health but will also affect the country politically and economically,” Federal Secretary for Climate Change, Arif Ahmed Khan told the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Climate Change.


Link
A quiet Atlantic is good, let's keep it that way!
Quoting 31. Dakster:



Hope you are correct - and you seem to know a whole lot more about it than I do.

I'll take a MSH eruption over the super volcano in Yellowstone.
yes, yes...Maybe we will be fortunate enough to have MSH Toba eruption at precisely the same time as Yellowstone.....Which could agitate a few of the others ready to blow...I like to be positive
Global Warming: Earth, Wind, Fire, and Ice



Focusing on Earth, but also a few tidbits on wind, fire, and ice, some current news and observations about global warming.
Quoting 45. 69Viking:

A quiet Atlantic is good, let's keep it that way!
I know...If the U.S. was never hit again, it would be too soon.
Quoting 41. ricderr:


My new predictions are 3,1,0.


ok andy........time to learn a little patience.........while you're waiting look up how many storms on an average year we should be at right now....then look at junes average amount of storms......and without even taking into account el nino which should make things slower......how are we averaging this year

and for extra credit....look at say 2004 (active) and 2005 (active on steroids) and tell us how long a stretch we had between storms june and july





No kidding, we should be about right on average for this time of year. June wasn't necessarily quiet and July is starting out quiet but things can and do change quickly. Those of us near the Atlantic can only pray that El Nino has it's normal affects on the Atlantic and keeps it quiet!
Thanks for the update! Sure an impressive parade of typhoons!

Meanwhile:
Ice caves near Seattle collapse in high temperatures, killing one hiker
Associated Press in Verlot, Washington, Tuesday 7 July 2015 14.07 BST
Following danger warnings, the popular hiking destination partially collapsed due to unseasonably warm weather, killing one person and injuring four others.
Quite a line of storms ripping their way across Germany at the moment. WU's radar is spotty, at best, but appears to be a few really nasty cells currently across central Germany as we here in Berlin are under the gun of the front. I would be surprised if there isn't significant damage in the Halle, Leipzig area from this.
Quoting 22. ricderr:

The weather is expected to get cooler as three typhoons are approaching coastal China, which may bring gales and rainstorms to an already flooded coastal parts of China.


doesn't this wording seem rather mild or is it just me?


It appears to be an "official" Chinese news site....................They pick their words carefully and a few of the statements in the entire blub contain a few basic grammatical errors..........They need better editors/translators into English.................. :)
Mt. St. Helens may erupt again but not an eruption near as high on the VEI as its 1980 eruption.
I'd bet on Mt. Baker for the next "major" (add: in the Cascades)--- if I were a gambler.
:)
It appears to be an "official" Chinese news site....................They pick their words carefully and a few of the statements in the entire blub contain a few basic grammatical errors..........They need better editors/translators into English.................. :)

exactly...don't they know that there's no other language...no other country....no other place on this planet...other than the good ole us of a
Quoting 43. tampabaymatt:



It’s funny you should write this. My outlook on severe weather, or heck, even weather in general, totally changed when I bought a home with my wife and had children. It boggles my mind when I read on here that some people hope for an active Atlantic season with landfalling tropical systems. But, I guess, depending on where you’re at in life, it might not matter to some people. I’m only 34 years old, but to me it seems like the propensity of severe weather is increasing, probably due to a warming climate. Just adds another fun wrinkle to the beauty of home ownership 


Having had a tree come down on my house (3 1/2') during Katrina and being without power for nearly 4 weeks, I really don't want to see another big storm. I also ran from a storm and had more damage to my being than staying home. They are great to watch on satellite loops but not so much from underneath.
Forest fires: A disaster of historic proportions

Forest fire season has hit Canada early, and it has hit Canada hard. As of Monday more than 2 million hectares of forest were on fire, thousands were on the run, several battalions' worth of soldiers were being scrambled to Saskatchewan and even B.C.'s famously moist rainforests had become dry enough to be torn through by flames. National Post reporter Tristin Hopper reports that with searing temperatures and bone-dry conditions forecast for the immediate future, it may just be the beginning:

Link
Quoting 56. ColoradoBob1:

Forest fires: A disaster of historic proportions

Forest fire season has hit Canada early, and it has hit Canada hard. As of Monday more than 2 million hectares of forest were on fire, thousands were on the run, several battalions' worth of soldiers were being scrambled to Saskatchewan and even B.C.'s famously moist rainforests had become dry enough to be torn through by flames. National Post reporter Tristin Hopper reports that with searing temperatures and bone-dry conditions forecast for the immediate future, it may just be the beginning:

Link


The whole northwest of the continent desperately needs a real soaker, and then another, and another.....
Quoting 38. georgevandenberghe:



No more than we're due for a "heads" after four consecutive "tails" in the
coin toss. The chance is still 50/50.


What if it lands on its edge? Does it change the odds?
Just another day in DC metro. Near 90 yesterday, typical. Thunderstorms with modest gusts yesterday evening. One of these brought a 10" branch on my sidewalk which I didn't notice till this morning. So out with the chainsaw before work to clear the walk for my neighbors. Same tree dropped a 12" branch on my microvan (Mazda 5) last year leading to a dent in the upper window frame and questions.. "How did you get a dent THERE!) But it's a 100 year old elm that does NOT have Dutch Elm disease.
What if it lands on its edge? Does it change the odds?

An experiment is reported in which an object which can rest in multiple stable configurations is dropped with randomized initial conditions from a height onto a flat surface. The effect of varying the object’s shape on the probability of landing in the less stable configuration is measured. A dynamical model of the experiment is introduced and solved by numerical simulations. Results of the experiments and simulations are in good agreement, confirming that the model incorporates the essential features of the dynamics of the tossing experiment. Extrapolations based on the model suggest that the probability of an American nickel landing on edge is approximately 1 in 6000 tosses.

so the answer is still 50/50
What about typhoon nangka (that could become a super typhoon) heading for the northern marianas islands or are those islands sparsely populated?
Quoting 57. JustDucky251:



The whole northwest of the continent desperately needs a real soaker, and then another, and another.....


Western ridge, eastern trough. Anyone notice the eastern trough has near normal temperatures while the western ridge is really hot. In another universe (the old one I used to live in) troughs were colder than normal. But maybe normal is the new "cold".

Cynical this afternoon :-)


Another active day across FL
Quoting 51. largeeyes:

Quite a line of storms ripping their way across Germany at the moment. WU's radar is spotty, at best, but appears to be a few really nasty cells currently across central Germany as we here in Berlin are under the gun of the front. I would be surprised if there isn't significant damage in the Halle, Leipzig area from this.

Indeed, the parade of storms which is heading to Berlin right now, has been very violent at some places and reports of damage are coming in. My place Mainz: Wind, some ominous clouds, some far away thunder and three drops of rain - as nearly always, sigh. At least the heat which has been decent today once again (nearly 36 C = 96 F) is finally expelled for some days.


Clouds at my place two hours ago - a dog which barks but doesn't bite (yet) - and no, this wasn't a tornado ...
Eastern Pacific going to be buzy next week and CENTRAL PACIFIC to and west pacific to
Re: the link posted at comment 50.
Ice caves near Seattle collapse in high temperatures, killing one hiker

I'm sorry someone died and that people were injured. I don't understand the reason anyone would go inside an ice cave formed by an avalanche - winter or summer - but especially in summer. I see the same type of death and injury happen in Alaska. Hollywood even made a hero of a guy who died in Alaska because he did not know what he was getting into. Into the Wild....Or maybe he had a death wish. Who knows?

People love "nature" so much, they get killed over it - because they don't stop and think? because they don't understand the dangers even with signs posted? According to this AP article as picked up by The Guardian, a woman who survived with minor injuries "said she saw the warning signs outside but went in anyway, adding she didn't see anything that seemed to point toward a collapse, and others already were in the cave."

Now the ice cave area - part of the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest - is closed to the public. I hope it will remain closed for a long time. According to the article, there was a similar incident at the cave area in 2010 and... Multiple warning signs have been put up in the past year to indicate the danger...The US forest service(sic) warned hikers in May that the ice caves were in their "most dangerous state" due to unseasonably warm weather* ...Temperatures in the area Monday reportedly were in the 80s.
Some people don't have the sense God gave a turnip.

Also, 80s is unseasonable for May but is not unusual in July.

Add: * Addendum - Found at a wiki entry about the ice caves: "While the trail is open to the public, the snowfield itself is off-limits due to cave-ins and slides which have killed hikers in incidents in 1998, 2010, and in 2015."[3][4]
Rainforest Fire in Washington May Be Ominous Sign

The Queets rain forest in Washington state’s Olympic National Park is the American jungle — one of the last remnants of the primeval temperate rain forests that once stretched from southern Oregon to southeast Alaska. But now, that precious ecosystem may be endangered by fires, due to climate change and a punishing drought that has affected even the normally moist Pacific Northwest.

Fires have burned holes into some of the trunks of the centuries-old Sitka spruce and western hemlock trees, causing the massive trees — some of them up to 250 feet tall — to come crashing to the ground, the Seattle Times reports.


Link
It's not very often you see the ECMWF forecast a Category 5 hurricane 10 days out.

Typhoon Nangka

Typhoon Nangka
Last Updated Jul 7, 2015 12 GMT
Location 14.3N 153.4E Movement WNW
Wind 140 MPH
Quoting 58. Grothar:



What if it lands on its edge? Does it change the odds?


Probably not as much as they would be changed if a certain football team from Northeast U.S. supplied
the coin :-)


watching invest 91c
Probably not as much as they would be changed if a certain football team from Northeast U.S. supplied
the coin :-)



actually for deflated coins.....call greece
“Massive” Arctic Heat Dome Sets Up to Bake Sea Ice

There’s a massive heat dome building over an Arctic sea ice pack that is looking increasingly fragile in both model forecasts and observations. In short, very bad weather for sea ice is rapidly settling in even as the ice pack, despite recent place gains in some measures, is looking increasingly weak.

Link
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

boo!!!!
how is the weather in miami,fl any t.storms down there right now someone update me!
Quoting 37. georgevandenberghe:



A mentor once told me, as I was watching a line of severe thunderstorms bear down on my area

"George when you own a house and have a wife and children, your attitude towards severe weather is going to change"

He was right. With a family and home I don't want severe weather anywhere near me.. ever! This includes tropical cyclones.

Quiet Atlantic is good!
A Tropical Atlantic that is quit is normal for this time of year, but a Tropical Atlantic that is quiet for the whole season is bad. A lot of vegetation, people, and animals depend on the rain these storms bring. One more thing it helps clean up a lot of the pollution humans put into the environment.
As long as the high is in place and the dust present nothing going to happen sadly so no rain or break from the heat

Quoting 26. Bucsboltsfan:


That satellite really tells the story. Going to be quiet for a while. Any forecast of the MJO moving into the Atlantic basin this month?
A couple of news articles are reporting a new record all-time hottest temperature in Geneva, Switzerland of 39.7 C / 103.5 F on July 7, 2015. Here's one of them, which also mentions new record hottest temperatures at other locations in Switzerland:

Link
Quoting 58. Grothar:



What if it lands on its edge? Does it change the odds?


No, it's just odd.
Here is another still active global problem (touching just about every 6th person in the world).

China age structure:

0-14 years:


17.1% (male 124,340,516/female 107,287,324)



- 15.8 % more males

15-24 years:

14.7% (male 105,763,058/female 93,903,845)

-  12.6 % more males

25-54 years:

47.2% (male 327,130,324/female 313,029,536) - 

4.5 % more males

55-64 years:

11.3% (male 77,751,100/female 75,737,968) - not important

65 years and over:

9.4% (male 62,646,075/female 68,102,830) (2014 est.)

- not important

My geography teacher used to say herself that men are completely useless without women and that she pities chinese men. What do you think?
Quoting 67. Barefootontherocks:

Re: the link posted at comment 50.
Ice caves near Seattle collapse in high temperatures, killing one hiker

I'm sorry someone died and that people were injured. I don't understand the reason anyone would go inside an ice cave formed by an avalanche - winter or summer - but especially in summer. I see the same type of death and injury happen in Alaska. Hollywood even made a hero of a guy who died in Alaska because he did not know what he was getting into. Into the Wild....Or maybe he had a death wish. Who knows?

People love "nature" so much, they get killed over it - because they don't stop and think? because they don't understand the dangers even with signs posted? According to this AP article as picked up by The Guardian, a woman who survived with minor injuries "said she saw the warning signs outside but went in anyway, adding she didn't see anything that seemed to point toward a collapse, and others already were in the cave."

Now the ice cave area - part of the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest - is closed to the public. I hope it will remain closed for a long time. According to the article, there was a similar incident at the cave area in 2010 and... Multiple warning signs have been put up in the past year to indicate the danger...The US forest service(sic) warned hikers in May that the ice caves were in their "most dangerous state" due to unseasonably warm weather* ...Temperatures in the area Monday reportedly were in the 80s.
Some people don't have the sense God gave a turnip.

Also, 80s is unseasonable for May but is not unusual in July.

Add: * Addendum - Found at a wiki entry about the ice caves: "While the trail is open to the public, the snowfield itself is off-limits due to cave-ins and slides which have killed hikers in incidents in 1998, 2010, and in 2015."[3][4]


Don't insult turnips!
Quoting 81. DCSwithunderscores:

A couple of newspaper articles are reporting a new record all-time hottest temperature in Geneva, Switzerland of 39.7 C / 103.5 F on July 7, 2015. Here's one of them, which also mentions record hottest temperatures at other locations in Switzerland:

Link
I spent part of the morning tracking hourly temps at the official Geneva weather site:



FWIW, it's still a few weeks out, so anything could happen, but there seems to be growing agreement that an end-of-July European heat wave will appear and overshadow the current one.
Quoting 85. Neapolitan:

I spent part of the morning tracking hourly temps at the official Geneva weather site:



FWIW, it's still a few weeks out, so anything could happen, but there seems to be growing agreement that an end-of-July European heat wave will appear and overshadow the current one.


I take that procedures are in place so there won't be a repeat of the issues some years back?
Massive storm!
Here is one for you guys.Noble prize winning scientist says Obama 'IS DEAD WRONG' on global warming!Dr. Ivar Giaever.I know you guys worship the awards people get. Another one bites the dust.Enjoy the day everyone be safe.
Quoting 83. NoobDave:

15-24 years:

14.7% (male 105,763,058/female 93,903,845)

- 12.6 % more males

25-54 years:

47.2% (male 327,130,324/female 313,029,536) -




This is the part that worries me - 25 million (give or take) military age males with no hope of marriage - that's potentially an army with nothing to live for
Chan-hom

What's the issue with Chan-hom, size?
Link
Quoting 88. help4u:

Here is one for you guys.Noble prize winning scientist says Obama 'IS DEAD WRONG' on global warming!Dr. Ivar Giaever.I know you guys worship the awards people get. Another one bites the dust.Enjoy the day everyone be safe.




Scientist with no background in climatology doesn't get climatology? Yawn.
Quoting 87. Gearsts:

Massive storm!



Nangka looks like Fred from 2009. Chan-hom is absolutely humongous. Linfa lasted longer than I expected. Now for some action in the Atlantic... (A man can dream)
Quoting 88. help4u:

Here is one for you guys.Noble prize winning scientist says Obama 'IS DEAD WRONG' on global warming!Dr. Ivar Giaever.I know you guys worship the awards people get. Another one bites the dust.Enjoy the day everyone be safe.


I wasn't aware either President Obama or Dr. Giaever were climate scientists or had published any research on climate change. I was aware that Dr. Giaever has made frequent pseudo scientific claims regarding global warming over the years, none of which are supported by reality.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
Eric Blake retweeted Philip Klotzbach
Tropical Atlc SSTs r the 2nd coldest on record since 1900 measured in relative terms to the rest of global tropics!
Quoting 88. help4u:

Here is one for you guys.Noble prize winning scientist says Obama 'IS DEAD WRONG' on global warming!Dr. Ivar Giaever.I know you guys worship the awards people get. Another one bites the dust.Enjoy the day everyone be safe.

A group of Nobel Laureates have signed a declaration calling for urgent action on climate change
Quartz, July 3, 2015 (with full text of the declaration)
In 1955, partly out of urgency and partly out of guilt, a group of 52 Nobel Laureates signed a declaration on Mainau Island in Germany calling for an end to the use of nuclear weapons. The work of some of these prizewinners - including that of Otto Hahn, who discovered nuclear fission - was used to build nuclear weapons. They were horrified their work was turned into technology that could kill billions.
Now, 60 years on, again out of a mix of urgency and guilt, a group of 36 Nobel prizewinners have signed a new Mainau Declaration calling for urgent action on climate change. The document is open for other Nobel Laureates to join. ....
From Climate Central:

Two Maps Show Greenland’s Sudden Melt Season Onset

It appears that Greenland’s melt season is making up for lost time.

After a cool spring kept Greenland’s massive ice sheet mostly solid, a (comparatively) warm late June and early July have turned half the ice sheet’s surface into liquid, well outside the range of normal for this time of year.

Despite the ice sheet’s remote location, its slushy fingers reach across the globe, influencing sea levels and how fast the Gulf Stream current moves. As temperatures rise, its influence could grow larger as major summer melt events become regular occurrence. Recent warming has already contributed to ice loss in some areas previously thought to be stable and sped the trip of some glaciers into the sea.

Read more >>



Daily surface mass balance estimates of the Greenland ice sheet. Red indicates losses.
Credit: Polar Portal
Quoting 85. Neapolitan:

I spent part of the morning tracking hourly temps at the official Geneva weather site:



FWIW, it's still a few weeks out, so anything could happen, but there seems to be growing agreement that an end-of-July European heat wave will appear and overshadow the current one.


If you look at the 12Z 7/7/2015 GFS, they won't be alone!
Quoting 74. ColoradoBob1:

“Massive” Arctic Heat Dome Sets Up to Bake Sea Ice

There’s a massive heat dome building over an Arctic sea ice pack that is looking increasingly fragile in both model forecasts and observations. In short, very bad weather for sea ice is rapidly settling in even as the ice pack, despite recent place gains in some measures, is looking increasingly weak.

Link

A few lines from Bobs links.

Terrible, Bob. Just terrible. Draw a triangle from Oregon to the Mackenzie Delta to the Bering Sea coast of Alaska and there you have an epic fire hot zone for this summer. Everyone there has exited the Holocene and entered the Fire Age… I don’t like it. 3.1 million Acres burned in Alaska already and I really, really don’t like it.

Forest fires: A disaster of historic proportions

Forest fire season has hit Canada early, and it has hit Canada hard. As of Monday more than 2 million hectares of forest were on fire, thousands were on the run, several battalions’ worth of soldiers were being scrambled to Saskatchewan and even B.C.’s famously moist rainforests had become dry enough to be torn through by flames. National Post reporter Tristin Hopper reports that with searing temperatures and bone-dry conditions forecast for the immediate future, it may just be the beginning:

Five storms in a line on Pacific theatre and this on the other side in the stalls!

Link
Typhoon "FALCON"

TY {CHAN-HOM} TIME 071800 UTC
00 19.1N 134.3E 972HPA 36M/S
P06HR WNW AT 05 M/S
P+24 21.8N 130.1E
P+48 24.4N 125.8E
P+72 26.8N 121.1E

Manila
Quoting 76. hurricanes2018:

how is the weather in miami,fl any t.storms down there right now someone update me!



any shark attacks down that way?
Quoting 101. georgevandenberghe:



If you look at the 12Z 7/7/2015 GFS, they won't be alone!

Kinda scarry
im taking my hurricane preps seriously this year. very seriously

102. PlazaRed

Yesterday's Aqua/MODIS pass over Alaska -
Note wind direction

Fires and smoke in northern Alaska

Today's passes :

North of the Bering Strait

North of the Arctic Wild Life Refuge –

North of the Arctic Wild Life Refuge

Notice all the grey being spread over the Arctic . The albedo is taking major hit. I wonder what Jason Box is doing tonight ?
Quoting 106. K8eCane:

im taking my hurricane preps seriously this year. very seriously


Here's yer "Atta Boy".
western africa is very active i expect within a few weeks some of that low pressure moves near the conus
Quoting 83. NoobDave:

Here is another still active global problem (touching just about every 6th person in the world).

China age structure:

0-14 years:


17.1% (male 124,340,516/female 107,287,324)



- 15.8 % more males

15-24 years:

14.7% (male 105,763,058/female 93,903,845)

-  12.6 % more males

25-54 years:

47.2% (male 327,130,324/female 313,029,536) - 

4.5 % more males

55-64 years:

11.3% (male 77,751,100/female 75,737,968) - not important

65 years and over:

9.4% (male 62,646,075/female 68,102,830) (2014 est.)

- not important

My geography teacher used to say herself that men are completely useless without women and that she pities chinese men. What do you think?

SCOTUS does not agree.
Quoting 85. Neapolitan:

FWIW, it's still a few weeks out, so anything could happen, but there seems to be growing agreement that an end-of-July European heat wave will appear and overshadow the current one.

Beware!

*Barb, murmuring some apotropaic incantations*
These strong Pacific storms seem to be the overture to another phase of the warming sequence.
I seem to remember but remembering is not my best ability any more (since I contracted Grotheritus) a few years ago but There was a Pacific storm maybe last year which went up near Japan and then on into the north of Canada. TA13 will know which one for sure.
Since that time there has been a temp anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska and all sorts of heating problems.
Now there are big fires and heat problems for the normally wet Pacific west coast.

Looking at the map we now have 3 of these types of storms heading for the China zone approximately.
How many more to come this year?
Eventually the heat of the central Pacific will get up into the Artic and then there wont be much more or any ice left to reflect the suns rays.

Scott seems to insist we have an El Nino as well!

Meanwhile I reckon Greenland is in for a big melt in the next few days or more.
We are having 45/C temps in Spain or over 110/F.
Records all over the place.
Now there are heat waves in Switzerland and they have glaciers to melt as well!

Oh well. I suppose I'd better live on a few more decades to see the beginning of the end product of all this.
Quoting 111. barbamz:



*Barb, murmuring some apotropaic incantations*


You taught me a new word...and I sure appreciated the link
Edit
Whoops it was Nea, but I missed it the first time aroumd
Hmm. That sky looks fairly... apocalyptic.

At least it isn't green.

(sorry, no photo at the moment. Waiting for the Oldest Baby Viking to msg me a photo. After yesterday's adventure rescuing my phone from the toddler's experiment involving the fish pond, I'm just not going to take chances.)

We might actually get some rain out of this.

Edit: Apparently we're under flash flood warning. Like, us us. East Fallon us. Huh. How crazy.
96E is very close to 140 W, so is likely to acquire a Central Pacific name. But where are we on that list? Guess we'll find out shortly. Another potential tropical disturbance over some even warmer water SW of Hawaii, moving northward. The upper wind flow from these tropical systems is currently aimed at the slow moving upper low off the California coast. This low is pumping up some pretty impressive T storms over the Sierra today, many of which are producing heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

Meanwhile, water temps off the Central California coast are still rising, helping pump up surface dewpoints. 63.1 F at the SF buoy at 2:50 PM; 64 F at the Monterey buoy.
NEVEN -

ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat

During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.

Link
18Z nothing. Next.
I predict that this year well see no more landfalls. Ana and Bill is all we going to get.
But I'm ready for winter. Expecting alot of snow here.
Quoting 107. ColoradoBob1:

... I wonder what Jason Box is doing tonight ?


Jason Box:

I counted 100 Greenland ice sheet surface melt lakes through the window of a plane

Quoting 44. ColoradoBob1:

Pakistan headed for water, food and energy disaster, NA committee told

The Ministry for Climate Change on Tuesday warned that in the next five years there will be serious complications regarding water scarcity, food shortage and energy crisis, if precautionary measures are not taken to tackle climate change in Pakistan.

“It will not only have an impact on human health but will also affect the country politically and economically,” Federal Secretary for Climate Change, Arif Ahmed Khan told the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Climate Change.


Link

On a parting note for tonight at 1 am here, 32/C, I can not resist posting this one.
when I read it I thought it might be a joke but they really do seem to have a Ministry of climate change.

"The Ministry for Climate Change on Tuesday warned that in the next five years there will be serious complications regarding water scarcity, food shortage and energy crisis, if precautionary measures are not taken to tackle climate change in Pakistan."

Link

It seems like a good idea; I wonder how many other countries have one of these.
Then again it might only be a supposedly "3rd world thing?" After all "developed nations" don't need to worry about trivia like climate change!
Reports are coming in that a downburst damaged the village of Framersheim just a couple of miles south of me this afternoon, umm. Source of the pics: meteo europe.




Framersheim.

Here a short video.

Good night with this, take care.
Quoting 120. Xandra:


Jason Box:

I counted 100 Greenland ice sheet surface melt lakes through the window of a plane




It was clear over southern Greenland today . Click on 250 meter resolution.



Aqua/MODIS
2015/188
07/07/2015
15:25 UTC
Quoting 117. HurricaneAndre:

18Z nothing. Next.
Quoting 118. HurricaneAndre:

I predict that this year well see no more landfalls. Ana and Bill is all we going to get.
Quoting 119. HurricaneAndre:

But I'm ready for winter. Expecting alot of snow here.
Quoting 33. HurricaneAndre:

My new predictions are 3,1,0.
Quoting 32. HurricaneAndre:

you know we're due for one. So when will it be. Idk.



please give it a rest all ready if you want some in too track there is a lot going on in the W C and E PAC that is where you need too look if you want too track storms this year


if not then take a 3 moths vacation come back in OCT for winter storm tracking


but keep posting that you want some in too track in the gulf or Atlantic is not going too happen any time soon we told you be for the season started that this will be a vary slow season and if you wanted some in too track the W C and E PAC where going too be the places too track storms this season



so you got a chose you can track the W C or E PAC storms


or 2 you can take a 3 moths vacation and come back in OCT for winter storm tracking
From a link at Alaska Division of Forestry, "Fire acreage totals are aproximately one week ahead of 2004."
The Alaska Interagency Coordination Center Situation Report Tuesday - 07/07/2015 includes a breakdown of all acreages burned this year.

From the U. S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
---Alaska Fire History

Click image for larger .pdf file
image credit: BLM
Per BLM:
"This map shows perimeters of known wildfires that ignited naturally (e.g., lightning) or were caused by humans (e.g., escaped campfire). For wildfires occuring before 1987, emphasis was placed on mapping perimeters at least 1000 acres in size. From 1987 forward, emphasis was placed on mapping wildfires with perimeters of at least 100 acres. Although this is a comprehensive dataset, it is not complete. Most, but not all known fire perimeters are shown on this map.

"Disclaimer: This map is intended for display purposes only. No warranty is made by the Bureau of Land Management or the Alaska Fire Service as to the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of information displayed. Fire Perimeters are provided by the Alaska Fire Service itself. Other data were compiled from various public sources. This spatial information may not meet National Map Accuracy Standards. This product was developed through digital means and may be updated without notification."
WOW!!!

Hurricane Specialist, Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Latest NMME ensemble shows >95% chance of a strong #ElNino & >60% chance of the strongest in modern times #climate

Quoting 109. islander101010:

western africa is very active i expect within a few weeks some of that low pressure moves near the conus

Surprising given the amount of SAL. Still I think this one will go "poof" when it hits water.
Flash Flood Warning
Statement as of 6:34 PM EDT on July 07, 2015

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
central Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
northwestern New Haven County in southern Connecticut...
eastern Putnam County in southeastern New York...
northern Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* until 930 PM EDT

* at 632 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour moving into the warned
area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen in this area.
Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Turn around... dont drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.


Lat... Lon 4162 7294 4144 7318 4140 7325 4121 7349
4115 7362 4121 7379 4159 7348 4149 7344
4151 7339 4149 7337 4147 7331 4149 7333
4151 7332 4151 7316 4156 7316 4157 7309
4159 7308 4159 7306 4161 7305 4164 7294
91C really looks like a TD right now

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical cyclone will likely form later tonight while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The low is forecast to
cross 140W longitude and move into the central Pacific basin later
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Quoting 131. Tazmanian:

91C really looks like a TD right now
We are stepping into some uncharted territories. Maybe we are seeing a 100 year repeat pattern. It will be interesting to see what the hurricane seasons in the 2020s are like and if they are anything like the 1920s when areas like Miami and Tampa Bay got direct hits from Major Hurricanes.

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
June is the 2nd most negative June relative SST value back to 1900. 1913 takes the all-time record.

And how did 2004 compare to the average fire season in Alaska? The report doesn't say.

Invest 91C WunderMap� 8:09 PM EDT on July 07, 2015
Storm Details YouTube Videos WunderPhotos (0)
Last Updated 7/7/2015, 2:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 7.9 167.1W Movement NW at 0 mph
Wind 30 MPH
Quoting 121. PlazaRed:


On a parting note for tonight at 1 am here, 32/C, I can not resist posting this one.
when I read it I thought it might be a joke but they really do seem to have a Ministry of climate change.

"The Ministry for Climate Change on Tuesday warned that in the next five years there will be serious complications regarding water scarcity, food shortage and energy crisis, if precautionary measures are not taken to tackle climate change in Pakistan."

Link

It seems like a good idea; I wonder how many other countries have one of these.
Then again it might only be a supposedly "3rd world thing?" After all "developed nations" don't need to worry about trivia like climate change!
Pakistan would have more money to fight climate change if they settled their border disputes with India. This would allow them to cut spending on the eighth largest standing army in the world. They could then cut the huge costs associated with developing more nuclear weapons and missiles. Society in Pakistan would be more stable if the government stopped harboring Taliban fighters and getting cosy with ISIS. Pakistan might be able to cope with climate change if they established a competent meteorology department instead of the bungled up mess they have now. The Ministry of Climate Change exists primarily to extract money from other countries to help Pakistan fight climate change. Most other countries know that, given the endemic level of corruption in Pakistan, almost none of the money would go toward the avowed purpose. There are lots of things Pakistan could do to help itself if they really wanted to.
Quoting 128. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WOW!!!

Hurricane Specialist, Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Latest NMME ensemble shows >95% chance of a strong #ElNino & >60% chance of the strongest in modern times #climate





Not sure why some here continue to insist this will likely be a run of the mill El Nino event. Sure, something unexpected could happen, but just like with a hurricane, we don't look at the outlier points, but the consensus. The consensus is that this will be a strong El Nino, which means significant impacts are likely. The drought and fires in the Pacific Northwest are already a sign of it's impacts.

Now, whether this will be a "super El Nino" or not is definitely far from certain.
Quoting 114. nonblanche:

Hmm. That sky looks fairly... apocalyptic.

At least it isn't green.

(sorry, no photo at the moment. Waiting for the Oldest Baby Viking to msg me a photo. After yesterday's adventure rescuing my phone from the toddler's experiment involving the fish pond, I'm just not going to take chances.)

We might actually get some rain out of this.

Edit: Apparently we're under flash flood warning. Like, us us. East Fallon us. Huh. How crazy.
Looks like one storm just went through and another one is hot on it's tail. The coverage of these storms is really quite amazing for Nevada in July.
Meanwhile, the local weather in FL. especially around Tampa Bay is going to get interesting starting on Sunday through at least the early part of next week with a backdoor cold front as an Upper Level Ridge shifts toward the Mississippi River Valley. We'll probably be stuck in the weakness between the two ridges and that will help draw up some moisture from the Caribbean as well.

Quoting 88. help4u:

Here is one for you guys.Noble prize winning scientist says Obama 'IS DEAD WRONG' on global warming!Dr. Ivar Giaever.I know you guys worship the awards people get. Another one bites the dust.Enjoy the day everyone be safe.

I'll just let our friends at SkS handle this one:Link

I will add that a guy saying something completely fails to overturn thousands of scientific papers reputably published on the subject. Weird, isn't it? lol
Quoting 135. BaltimoreBrian:

And how did 2004 compare to the average fire season in Alaska? The report doesn't say.


According to this pdf from the link, average fire season is 1.7 million acres, 2004 had 6.5 million acres burned, 2015, which is slightly ahead of 2004, is 3.1 millions acres.

No idea what the variance or standard deviation looks like, so no clue exactly how out of the ordinary 2004 and 2015 are, but we currently sit at more than double the yearly average, so I would wager a guess.
Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Meanwhile, the local weather in FL. especially around Tampa Bay is going to get interesting starting on Sunday through at least the early part of next week with a backdoor cold front as an Upper Level Ridge shifts toward the Mississippi River Valley. We'll probably be stuck in the weakness between the two ridges and that will help draw up some moisture from the Caribbean as well.




Yeah model guidance is really bringing in a nice wet pattern next week with the trough back building into the area. Typically back door front scenarios lead to strong to severe thunderstorms here because that type of setup often provides shear and substantial mid level cooling as the upper trough settles while the flow allows for significant heating.

Lately that has been the trend, higher than average CAPE and cooler than average mid level temps have led to even more vigorous and frequent lightning than even the typical Florida frequency, this should be the case next week also.

Quoting 109. islander101010:

western africa is very active i expect within a few weeks some of that low pressure moves near the conus
waiting for august
Quoting 139. sar2401:

Looks like one storm just went through and another one is hot on it's tail. The coverage of these storms is really quite amazing for Nevada in July.


Yeah I'm pretty sure a lot of these places average what, a few inches a year? lol
Quoting 119. HurricaneAndre:

But I'm ready for winter. Expecting alot of snow here.

Andre, aren't you here in SE LA?
Quoting 138. Jedkins01:




Not sure why some here continue to insist this will likely be a run of the mill El Nino event. Sure, something unexpected could happen, but just like with a hurricane, we don't look at the outlier points, but the consensus. The consensus is that this will be a strong El Nino, which means significant impacts are likely. The drought and fires in the Pacific Northwest are already a sign of it's impacts.

Now, whether this will be a "super El Nino" or not is definitely far from certain.
I agree I think reality is going to start catching up to some very soon. It's not so much the strength of the El Nino in the Nino regions that standout, but the warm anomalies that continue off the west coast of the US and the Gulf of Alaska. No wonder the west coast continues to bake and be in this persistent ridge pattern. California has literally had to rely on cut-off lows to give them any rain. This will present a huge problem not only for their drought, but their wildfire season, since the soil moisture will be dry. I know everyone keeps saying it is typical for a strong El Nino to bring tremendous amount of rainfall to California, but I'm not sure if this El Nino is a traditional one that we are used to seeing.
Quoting 95. Naga5000:



I wasn't aware either President Obama or Dr. Giaever were climate scientists or had published any research on climate change. I was aware that Dr. Giaever has made frequent pseudo scientific claims regarding global warming over the years, none of which are supported by reality.
Another brilliant scientist who, as he aged, seems to have had his train go off the tracks. The man is 86 years old. By his own admission what he knows about climate change he learned from half a day on Google. His Nobel was for superconductor work, not anything to do with climate. He simply doesn't believe climate change is happening, and that a 0.8c rise in global temperature means nothing. Once again, the denier community is manipulating an elderly man with wonky ideas solely because he happened to share a Nobel prize. They should be ashamed of themselves.
Hello All,

This was the 00z run today. The 6/12z runs arent showing on the website for the ensembles. The 18z run currently looks to be running..looks to be some technical issues going on..

Quoting 139. sar2401:

Looks like one storm just went through and another one is hot on it's tail. The coverage of these storms is really quite amazing for Nevada in July.


Saving a lot of farmers' alfalfa crops, I'd say. If this pattern continues through the year... I better get all our storage stuff up on pallets.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Another brilliant scientist who, as he aged, seems to have had his train go off the tracks. The man is 86 years old. By his own admission what he knows about climate change he learned from half a day on Google. His Nobel was for superconductor work, not anything to do with climate. He simply doesn't believe climate change is happening, and that a 0.8c rise in global temperature means nothing. Once again, the denier community is manipulating an elderly man with wonky ideas solely because he happened to share a Nobel prize. They should be ashamed of themselves.


Those folks lack the gene that causes shame. ;)
Quoting 139. sar2401:

Looks like one storm just went through and another one is hot on it's tail. The coverage of these storms is really quite amazing for Nevada in July.
Video of the flooding near Vegas. Link
Quoting 135. BaltimoreBrian:

And how did 2004 compare to the average fire season in Alaska? The report doesn't say.


Maybe 2004 was a record year and/or record early start year and that is why it is being used as a comparison to the large, early fires burning this year?
Quoting 146. Jedkins01:



Yeah I'm pretty sure a lot of these places average what, a few inches a year? lol


Six to nine inches a year 'round these parts. Even before irrigation, most of the water came from snowmelt and downpours via the washes and creeks. Fallon even before incorporation was known as "The Oasis of Nevada."
Quoting 146. Jedkins01:



Yeah I'm pretty sure a lot of these places average what, a few inches a year? lol
Fallon is actually one of the wetter spots on the western desert with five inches a year. The further east you go, the more the rainfall decreases until you get to the higher elevations of eastern Nevada. Places like Elko and Eureka average ten or eleven inches a year, much of which is snow. The interesting thing right now is the storm coverage area. A typical monsoon produces just scattered convection. This one is producing large area of just rain with embedded convection. Not normal at all for Nevada in July.
Supercell near Speyer, Germany today courtesy of Steve von Miller.

Isn't Mother Nature just beautiful?

Quoting 153. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Video of the flooding near Vegas. Link
Pretty typical flooding for Vegas. A lot of the city is built over washes that were just filled in and construction took place on top of them. When the monsoon comes. the rain in the mountains runs off into the Vegas Valley, and the water finds it's way to those buried washes. Paved streets serve as a good substitute route. As you can tell by the cars driving through that relatively deep and fast flowing water, it's not the first time this has happened. If this happened in Florida or Alabama, it would be the cause of much teeth gnashing. In Vegas, it's just business as usual.
Nino 3.4 getting ready to cross 1.6C.

Crazy looking image of the Pacific. I suspect there are going to be major implications with this set up for this Winter especially in FL. Could be a very active severe weather winter season ahead.

Thanks Naga5000. I should have read the entire thing but I did a quick look-over and search instead. My impression now is that 2004 is the record fire season in Alaska.
This Record Report is from earlier today. Currently Abilene Regional Airport (TX) has recorded 7.73 inches, and according to radar there's still some rain in the area.

Record Report
Statement as of 11:24 am CDT on July 7, 2015

... Today becomes Abilene all time wettest day...

Abilene Regional Airport has already received 6.58 inches of rain
as of 1109 am today... and it is continuing to rain. This sets a new
record for rainfall in any single day... breaking the previous record
of 6.54 inches on may 11th 1928. An updated record report will be
sent later today.
Those across the Atlantic Basin looking for TC's then it appears you may need to go to Japan this year. Beginning to think we might witness the top 5 slowest Atlantic Hurricane Season this year.

WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 10h10 hours ago
WSI Energy Weather retweeted Todd Crawford
Strong El Nino + constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse = historic levels of tropical activity
If I were a gambling man, I'd bet the whole shebang on an exceptionally wet rainy season for California. What rain we got last season came whilst the coastal SSTs were still in the 60s, right thru most of December. The rain shut off as soon as the water temps dropped. But they're back up in the 60s now AND we have a strong El Nino shaping up. The wild card of course is any unknown dynamic effect of global warming.
Quoting 128. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WOW!!!

Hurricane Specialist, Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
Latest NMME ensemble shows >95% chance of a strong #ElNino & >60% chance of the strongest in modern times #climate


Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Meanwhile, the local weather in FL. especially around Tampa Bay is going to get interesting starting on Sunday through at least the early part of next week with a backdoor cold front as an Upper Level Ridge shifts toward the Mississippi River Valley. We'll probably be stuck in the weakness between the two ridges and that will help draw up some moisture from the Caribbean as well.


It looks like SE Florida is not going to get much if anything from this pattern. The Panhandle might get some rain but I'm going to be stuck in sunny and hot. I'll have a prolonged period of highs near or over 100 starting tomorrow and continuing to at least next Tuesday. Yuk!
Quoting 165. BayFog:

If I were a gambling man, I'd bet the whole shebang on an exceptionally wet rainy season for California. What rain we got last season came whilst the coastal SSTs were still in the 60s, right thru most of December. The rain shut off as soon as the water temps dropped. But they're back up in the 60s now AND we have a strong El Nino shaping up. The wild card of course is any unknown dynamic effect of global warming.


Southern Jet should be very active starting September into October. Any peak to Hurricane Season or whatever we get might come earlier than normal maybe August.
EP, 96, 2015070800, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1395W, 30, 1005, TD,

"Strong El Nino + constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse = historic levels of tropical activity"

What does 'constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse' mean in layman's terms?
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Another brilliant scientist who, as he aged, seems to have had his train go off the tracks. The man is 86 years old. By his own admission what he knows about climate change he learned from half a day on Google. His Nobel was for superconductor work, not anything to do with climate. He simply doesn't believe climate change is happening, and that a 0.8c rise in global temperature means nothing. Once again, the denier community is manipulating an elderly man with wonky ideas solely because he happened to share a Nobel prize. They should be ashamed of themselves.


That global warming is ongoing cannot be denied. My father was sent out on a government contract to investigate it in 1949 (before I was born - So don't ask) on the glaciers in Alaska. There was no doubt that warming was ongoing. One might question the percent of man's contribution but not the reality of global warming.
Quoting 169. LAbonbon:

"Strong El Nino + constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse = historic levels of tropical activity"

What does 'constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse' mean in layman's terms?


Record WWB/ Record MJO Pulse meaning El-Nino has been getting an injection of steroids the past week and as a result the Pacific is catching fire with all these Tropical systems forming.
Don't know if anyone has linked WunderYakuza's farewell blog in here - an appropriate action, as Aaron invented the wu blogs for us right before the mad, mad 2005 Atlantic season. Because of him, we had a true community here long before facebook!

Some of you, especially wu oldtimers who participated in the initial blogs and remember Yakuza's leadership, may want to stop in and read his blog and maybe leave a comment.
Quoting 137. sar2401:

Pakistan would have more money to fight climate change if they settled their border disputes with India. This would allow them to cut spending on the eighth largest standing army in the world. They could then cut the huge costs associated with developing more nuclear weapons and missiles. Society in Pakistan would be more stable if the government stopped harboring Taliban fighters and getting cosy with ISIS. Pakistan might be able to cope with climate change if they established a competent meteorology department instead of the bungled up mess they have now. The Ministry of Climate Change exists primarily to extract money from other countries to help Pakistan fight climate change. Most other countries know that, given the endemic level of corruption in Pakistan, almost none of the money would go toward the avowed purpose. There are lots of things Pakistan could do to help itself if they really wanted to.
Unfortunately one of them is not stopping the glaciers in the Himalayas from melting and disappearing. They are the principal source for water for crops and drinking and there is not much else available -- I doubt if groundwater could substitute. Of course they could build a bunch of dams in the narrow, landslide-prone valleys to hold back the water. I doubt if there is a reasonable solution even if they devoted money to it.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 6h6 hours ago

ECMWF 12z bullish with Category 5 hurricane well off Mexican coast next week. Nothing imminent yet.
Quoting 151. nonblanche:



Saving a lot of farmers' alfalfa crops, I'd say. If this pattern continues through the year... I better get all our storage stuff up on pallets.
Being an old desert rat, I used to think i had a pretty good understanding of the monsoon and what to expect. This one is not like any I've seen before. Unfortunately, the Vegas radar was taken out by a lightning strike last night. If it was up I think it would show the same broad coverage in southern Nevada as what we're seeing in northern Nevada. The monsoon is causing rain in every state from Colorado to the Pacific coast. It's all because of a huge reservoir of moisture in northern Mexico as a high just sits there and pumps up the moisture. I suspect we're seeing El Nino in action. This may be a preview of what will probably be very heavy rain this winter. Getting your stuff up on pallets now is a good idea.
Quoting 158. sar2401:

Pretty typical flooding for Vegas. A lot of the city is built over washes that were just filled in and construction took place on top of them. When the monsoon comes. the rain in the mountains runs off into the Vegas Valley, and the water finds it's way to those buried washes. Paved streets serve as a good substitute route. As you can tell by the cars driving through that relatively deep and fast flowing water, it's not the first time this has happened. If this happened in Florida or Alabama, it would be the cause of much teeth gnashing. In Vegas, it's just business as usual.


In Mobile the water wouldn't get that deep, except for half a dozen intersections, because it runs off so fast. The city is really well prepared for deluges (6-10 in per day). Also the soil is very porous and within a day the standing water has all disappeared.
Holy sugar honey iced tea




That is scary.
Good evening

It's a partly cloudy 83 and feeling like 88 here on the island tonight. It actually got up to 93 this afternoon.

It's been a very windy month or so and the weather is starting to take its toll on our fishermen and our restaurants. The hand liners (ourselves included) can't fish because we have to drop anchor and it's been too rough to do it. So if you are on your way to the island and looking for fresh yellowtail snapper, you're out of luck until this weather eases up!

The island is really browning up and the convoys of water trucks are going full time now as the island residents that live on the hills don't have the ability to turn on the potable water when their cisterns run out. Our house is still going on cistern. I'm starting to dream of a shower that lasts longer than three minutes!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Quoting 177. wxgeek723:

Holy sugar honey iced tea



I been saying this was coming. Shouldn't be surprised to see this when this WWB is crushing the one that set off the 1997 Super El-Nino. We are going to head into uncharted territory the next several months.
Quoting 173. CaneFreeCR:

Unfortunately one of them is not stopping the glaciers in the Himalayas from melting and disappearing. They are the principal source for water for crops and drinking and there is not much else available -- I doubt if groundwater could substitute. Of course they could build a bunch of dams in the narrow, landslide-prone valleys to hold back the water. I doubt if there is a reasonable solution even if they devoted money to it.
Although the rivers of the Indus basin supply some of Pakistan's water, they are so polluted that the treatment costs are much too high to be affordable. Pakistan has large surface and underground water supplies available if the government will start a concerted program to start using these resources. They can introduce modern irrigation techniques for farming. They can improve the existing canals and pipelines, but they can't do that when the average annual spending of about $4 per capita on water system maintenance. They can fix the leaks in the system that are estimated to lose 20% of the water put in the system. They can crack down on the rampant theft of water that's estimated at 75% in cities like Rawalpindi. They can elect leaders who aren't thieves and actually have the best interests of the nation at heart. Pakistan is a huge country, both in area and population. I really get tired of hearing about poor Pakistan when the country is taking almost no actions to improve their situation. Pakistan's idea of water system improvement is when the Japanese or Americans come in and build something for them. Enough. Pakistan has to learn how to stand on it's own two feet.
Quoting 177. wxgeek723:

Holy sugar honey iced tea



MNote that a number of the favorites are between strong and the record.
Not a unanimous decision on super.
Quoting 177. wxgeek723:

Holy sugar honey iced tea




That is scary.



looks like CA will be under water by DEC
Quoting 178. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening

It's a partly cloudy 83 and feeling like 88 here on the island tonight. It actually got up to 93 this afternoon.

It's been a very windy month or so and the weather is starting to take its toll on our fishermen and our restaurants. The hand liners (ourselves included) can't fish because we have to drop anchor and it's been too rough to do it. So if you are on your way to the island and looking for fresh yellowtail snapper, you're out of luck until this weather eases up!

The island is really browning up and the convoys of water trucks are going full time now as the island residents that live on the hills don't have the ability to turn on the potable water when their cisterns run out. Our house is still going on cistern. I'm starting to dream of a shower that lasts longer than three minutes!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
HI Lindy. 93 is pretty warm for the Virgins. It got up to 97 here. Those tradewinds are one of the reasons you're not getting any rain. As long as they keep blowing it's almost impossible for anything but some scattered convection to get started. Combine that with lack of vertical instability, dry air, and the invasion of the SAL and things look pretty bleak rainwise. At least you got a full cistern earlier. All you can hope is that you're under one of those scattered storms.
184. beell
Quoting 175. sar2401:

Being an old desert rat, I used to think i had a pretty good understanding of the monsoon and what to expect. This one is not like any I've seen before. Unfortunately, the Vegas radar was taken out by a lightning strike last night. If it was up I think it would show the same broad coverage in southern Nevada as what we're seeing in northern Nevada. The monsoon is causing rain in every state from Colorado to the Pacific coast. It's all because of a huge reservoir of moisture in northern Mexico as a high just sits there and pumps up the moisture. I suspect we're seeing El Nino in action. This may be a preview of what will probably be very heavy rain this winter. Getting your stuff up on pallets now is a good idea.


Most of this widespread rain is related to the forcing and cooler mid level temps provided by the large upper level low off the California coast along with Pacific moisture.


Quoting 176. JustDucky251:



In Mobile the water wouldn't get that deep, except for half a dozen intersections, because it runs off so fast. The city is really well prepared for deluges (6-10 in per day). Also the soil is very porous and within a day the standing water has all disappeared.
It's almost the same in Vegas. Within an hour, that water will be gone. Vegas sit on top a huge underground aquifer. It's maintained by these flash floods. The sandy soil is very porous, and any signs of rain will be gone the next day. I've stood next to a wash flowing bank to bank eight feet deep and a hundred yards across. The next day there were just a few puddles. It's really amazing to see.
Quoting 184. beell:



Most of this widespread rain is related to the forcing and cooler mid level temps provided by the large upper level low off the California coast along with Pacific moisture.



Thank you for the correction. That's a gigantic front in the Pacific for July. El Nino?
Quoting 183. sar2401:

HI Lindy. 93 is pretty warm for the Virgins. It got up to 97 here. Those tradewinds are one of the reasons you're not getting any rain. As long as they keep blowing it's almost impossible for anything but some scattered convection to get started. Combine that with lack of vertical instability, dry air, and the invasion of the SAL and things look pretty bleak rainwise. At least you got a full cistern earlier. All you can hope is that you're under one of those scattered storms.


You're right, sar. The rest of the island was left out when that storm went through. It topped off every cistern here in my area and left everyone else high and dry. Only wish I could have figured out how to save all the overflow that day!
Quoting 175. sar2401:

Being an old desert rat, I used to think i had a pretty good understanding of the monsoon and what to expect. This one is not like any I've seen before. Unfortunately, the Vegas radar was taken out by a lightning strike last night. If it was up I think it would show the same broad coverage in southern Nevada as what we're seeing in northern Nevada. The monsoon is causing rain in every state from Colorado to the Pacific coast. It's all because of a huge reservoir of moisture in northern Mexico as a high just sits there and pumps up the moisture. I suspect we're seeing El Nino in action. This may be a preview of what will probably be very heavy rain this winter. Getting your stuff up on pallets now is a good idea.


Also people with less dependable foundations should start digging french drains now.

We've been getting those big green missile boxes from a friend on base - I converted one into a dog-proof dumpster so that should be weather-proof. Picking up torn trash bags in the rain really hoovers. Also, those things come with the EMP-resistant not-quite-tyvek paper inner wrapping, which is tough and waterproof and makes a great vapor barrier. They are a shallow base, a deep top, and - most important for storage palleting - a 4 inch high resin fiberglass platter, about 4x6 feet, with two high impact foam planks. I'm saving those up to use on our storage tent floor, storage sheds too. And the giant 5' long alien lego-looking styrofoam forms inside will be the base of our lumber storage - way far out of both rain and splash range.

Anyone in the Great Basin should be prepping for this no matter what. Plus extra propane grill tanks kept topped off 'cause we're mostly electric, wood stove heat, and in a winter like this power's gonna just go now and then.
Quoting 169. LAbonbon:

"Strong El Nino + constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse = historic levels of tropical activity"

What does 'constructive interference from strong sub-seasonal pulse' mean in layman's terms?
There's an article from the CPC that talks about how the MJO constructively interferes with El Nino. In other words, the MJO is making the El Nino stronger. It could have been couched like that but it would sound as scientific. :-)
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:



I been saying this was coming. Shouldn't be surprised to see this when this WWB is crushing the one that set off the 1997 Super El-Nino. We are going to head into uncharted territory the next several months.


Say good bye to the dry season around here, looks like it's going to be the rainy season from now through next year, lol.
Quoting 191. Jedkins01:



Say good bye to the dry season around here, looks like it's going to be the rainy season from now through next year, lol.


Could get real dry in September before the rains kick off sometime in October. Could go either way well see but I suspect we are in for 1 dry month before these El-Nino rains kick in.
Quoting 179. StormTrackerScott:



I been saying this was coming. Shouldn't be surprised to see this when this WWB is crushing the one that set off the 1997 Super El-Nino. We are going to head into uncharted territory the next several months.


Where can I send your cookie?

Yes you have.... over and over and over again...
Quoting 182. Tazmanian:




looks like CA will be under water by DEC


Well see but no GTY Taz. Chances are greater though the stronger this event gets.
Quoting 193. Dakster:



Where can I send your cookie?

Yes you have.... over and over and over again...


Didn't mean to come off any way sorry if I offended. I know I can get redundant sometimes.
Quoting 177. wxgeek723:

Holy sugar honey iced tea




That is scary.
I'm looking at the forecast anomalies running from Cuba north to Canada along the East coast. If we get a system N of 20N, it'd have the best waters in the basin to feed on ....
I am just keeping you down to Earth STS...

I am not offended by you.
Quoting 152. Naga5000:



Those folks lack the gene that causes shame. ;)
Man you are harsh. Willing to bet they think the same about you.
While I welcome the El Niño news for California having an increased chance of a very wet season, I think California officials should have strong messages before the rains hit:

If it rains a lot- heed local officials for flood warnings and potential damages etc.

If it rains a lot - the water table will not be refilled that quickly. Keep conserving with the in place restrictions/laws until data shows otherwise.

Am looking forward to the rain but would rather be prepared for it and the future.
California asked for rain, now they just might get it.

I hope when they asked, they also asked for a shut off point.
Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:



Well see but no GTY Taz. Chances are greater though the stronger this event gets.


i no this would be a long shot but will this winter rains be a drought buster for CA

like if we get like the pine apple event with 10 too 20" of rain forcast in one event whats the ch of see a event like that this winter
Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:



Didn't mean to come off any way sorry if I offended. I know I can get redundant sometimes.


How about a good concise update once a week? I think that would be just fine.
Quoting 201. Tazmanian:



i no this would be a long shot but will this winter rains be a drought buster for CA

like if we get like the pine apple event with 10 too 20" of rain forcast in one event whats the ch of see a event like that this winter


What if you got 10' of rain?
What? Simon? hahahahaha Wrong season NHC :p


Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM HST July 7 2015
===========================

Showers and thunderstorms persist near a weak, nearly stationary, surface low located about 750 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions do not appear to be favorable for significant development in this area during the next two days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
========================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: VERY LOW
Thursday: LOW

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles south southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii continue to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for further development of this system as it moves slowly toward the northwest over the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
========================
Tuesday: MODERATE
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: HIGH
Quoting 198. Kenfa03:

Man you are harsh. Willing to bet they think the same about you.


Not harsh, they are using whomever as pawns to propagate a lie. They possibly think the same about me, but I don't exhibit blatant rejection of science based in emotional biases, nor do I lack the ability to state my wrongness if evidence disputes my position, but then again you asked how they think, my guess is they do not care for me and my message one bit. Good thing me and them don't have too many interactions besides the occasional blog comment.
Quoting 203. Dakster:



What if you got 10' of rain?


I'll take 20 inches spread out over oct-April. I live in the Sacramento valley so we are aware of a historical event and weaknesses in flood protection. Good thing my house is 131 feet above sea level. Bad for a lot of people though.

Having 10-20" in 3-4 days would be bad. Chances of a stationary "atmospheric river" increases with El Niño and I imagine that further arctic amplification would push the risk a bit higher. Purely speculative but one I don't want to see play out. I'm more concerned with arctic amplification and its effect on the jet stream. Namely methane releases, Greenland melting and arctic sea ice thinning and shrinking.
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042015
8:00 PM PDT July 7 2015
==========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Southeast of Big Island (Hawaii)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1005 hPa) located at 15.4N 140.2W or 890 NM east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 17.6N 144.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==============
Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved bands of convection have developed around the center of the well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 NM east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours. The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5.

The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96 hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through 96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin down and dissipate.

The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii.
Whatever you need CraigsIsland I am for you getting.

Hope it works out that way. I am no fan of drought or flooding.
What is that south of Western Africa, a graphical glitch?
Quoting 192. StormTrackerScott:



Could get real dry in September before the rains kick off sometime in October. Could go either way well see but I suspect we are in for 1 dry month before these El-Nino rains kick in.


Yeah that's usually how it works, my guess is October will be dry, before rainfall increases by November and then December.
Quoting 211. centex:

What is that south of Western Africa, a graphical glitch?


I would imagine so, since it's at 0N, 0W. I've seen that glitch pop up a few times in the past.
Man, what a summer.
Sonora CA norml rain fall is about 35" too 40" of rain fall per season this last season we had about 19.00" wish was a bit better then 2104-2015 wish we got about 10" of rain that season so we been be low norml rain fall for the past few season so a strong and super strong EL nino will be welcome out here and may be for once we can get a norml or way above norml rainy season for once and it will help too bring are lakes back too close too norml out here


all so any rains we get from the W PAC hurricanes has they head out too sea and in too the jet will all so help and that norml starts in early OCT
Quoting 211. centex:

What is that south of Western Africa, a graphical glitch?



As a pure graphic statement. This is a really great map.
Quoting 211. centex:

What is that south of Western Africa, a graphical glitch?



Looks like a ghost storm at 0 latitude, 0 longitude. Ghost storm is gone now.
I have not noticed opinions on the chances of Shanghai getting clocked by a 3 or better Typhoon. What does the community think? I'm sure most of you know that the Chinese stock market has cratered in the last month dwon 33%, another 4.5% just today so far. 14% of Chinese rail traffic supposedly goes through Shanghai, and most of the region is only two meters above sea level. This could have major economic implications.
Forget the Atlantic Hurricane season. RIP the Wunderground blog. I fear the nasty climate debate has taken its toll on people reading the blog.....
Admins, can you please remove all of my below average season comments thanks. My predictions are still 10,4,2.
Quoting 219. leofarnsworth:

Forget the Atlantic Hurricane season. RIP the Wunderground blog. I fear the nasty climate debate has taken its toll on people reading the blog.....


I fear the hyperbole is too thick to see through.
Quoting 209. HadesGodWyvern:

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042015
8:00 PM PDT July 7 2015
==========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Southeast of Big Island (Hawaii)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1005 hPa) located at 15.4N 140.2W or 890 NM east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 17.6N 144.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==============
Visible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved bands of convection have developed around the center of the well-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 NM east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number of T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge located to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken and become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general agreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after that, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours. The exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system west-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and then follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains a larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5.

The SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C or greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt from the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce a steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS model is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model and, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96 hours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity forecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear computations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through 96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more likely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will make the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin down and dissipate.

The depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC advisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the depression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii.
So which name will it get.
143. Naga5000
You wrote: "...we currently sit at more than double the yearly average, so I would wager a guess.”

I would wager 17 plus 17 equals 34, and we are "currently" at 31.

As of yesterday, the burned acres in Alaska for 2015 is 300,000 acres less than "double the yearly average.” Which average you so aptly stated from a reliable source to be 1.7 million acres per year burned. No exaggeration allowed, Naga.

Not that the total acreage in the long run makes any difference. Alaska's been burning uncontrolled on and off since Christ wore sandals and the Alaskan Siberian Yupiks were still in Siberia.
But Alaska wildfires have burned far more than the average so far this year to date.

Big circulation heading towards South Florida. At least it's nice to look at. At this point I'll take what I can get.
Quoting 218. leofarnsworth:

I have not noticed opinions on the chances of Shanghai getting clocked by a 3 or better Typhoon. What does the community think? I'm sure most of you know that the Chinese stock market has cratered in the last month dwon 33%, another 4.5% just today so far. 14% of Chinese rail traffic supposedly goes through Shanghai, and most of the region is only two meters above sea level. This could have major economic implications.


They should recover economic losses from a weather event. How quickly depends on the resiliency and appropriate government and shareholder response to any turmoil. It's tough to know how this will play out.

In terms of being prepared, let's hope they are ready for this potential event. Would hate to see lives lost because of an anomaly but predictable storm.
Quoting 225. Barefootontherocks:

143. Naga5000
You wrote: "...we currently sit at more than double the yearly average, so I would wager a guess.%u201D

I would wager 17 plus 17 equals 34, and we are "currently" at 31.

As of yesterday, the burned acres in Alaska for 2015 is 300,000 acres less than "double the yearly average.%u201D Which average you so aptly stated from a reliable source to be 1.7 million acres per year burned. No exaggeration allowed, Naga.

Not that the total acreage in the long run makes any difference. Alaska's been burning uncontrolled on and off since Christ wore sandals and the Alaskan Siberian Yupiks were still in Siberia.


It was a simple math error. My mistake. It certainly didn't require a treatise. It doesn't change the fact we are currently 1.4 million acres more than average (I used the calculator there). And it doesn't change my wagered guess.
Is acreage burned in Alaska wildfires at a record pace year to date?
Quoting 230. BaltimoreBrian:

Is acreage burned in Alaska wildfires at a record pace year to date?


Probably.
Cyclone Chan-hom appears to be heading for Shanghai which is only one metre above sea level and 24 million people live there. Its a major port and commercial centre plus the area is surrounded by rich farmland and all of it just above sea level. This is going to be a preview of climate change and rising sea levels.
Quoting 218. leofarnsworth:

I have not noticed opinions on the chances of Shanghai getting clocked by a 3 or better Typhoon. What does the community think? I'm sure most of you know that the Chinese stock market has cratered in the last month dwon 33%, another 4.5% just today so far. 14% of Chinese rail traffic supposedly goes through Shanghai, and most of the region is only two meters above sea level. This could have major economic implications.
There have been many posts about Shanghai and Typhoon Chan-hom, some of which I've made. Shanghai is not going to get "clocked" by a cat 3 typhoon. The current models have it making landfall far to the south and then heading toward Shanghai as a TD. Assuming the actual track doesn't change and have a path more toward Shanghai this won't be a high impact event. Shanghai deals with tropical storms on a regular basis. The Chinese stock market is totally controlled and manipulated by the PRC government. They wanted it to fall and are now stepping in to prop it up. Any resemblance between the Shanghai market and any other free stock market is purely coincidental.

OK. From earlier posts Alaska is 300,000 acres ahead of 2004, which had the greatest total acreage burned. I don't know if another year had greater acreage burned by July 7. We'll see what happens.

Partial quote from Barefootontherocks:

Not that the total acreage in the long run makes any difference. Alaska's been burning uncontrolled on and off since Christ wore sandals and the Alaskan Siberian Yupiks were still in Siberia.


By that reasoning...
So is this the first time that an NHC office only issued one advisory on a system? I know a handful of times they've done two, one to christen it and one to declare it dead/extratropical, but I never remember a first advisory also being the final advisory.
When will the next name form.
A this month
B August
C September
Me this month.
Quoting 232. thesailer99:

Cyclone Chan-hom appears to be heading for Shanghai which is only one metre above sea level and 24 million people live there. Its a major port and commercial centre plus the area is surrounded by rich farmland and all of it just above sea level. This is going to be a preview of climate change and rising sea levels.
The models currently don't show landfall near Shanghai. Wenzhou appears to be about where landfall will occur. There are about 9 million people there who will be much more at risk than Shanghai.
Quoting 235. MysteryMeat:

So is this the first time that an NHC office only issued one advisory on a system? I know a handful of times they've done two, one to christen it and one to declare it dead/extratropical, but I never remember a first advisory also being the final advisory.
It pays to read the whole thing. The depression is just moving into CPHC area of responsibility and they'll now issue advisories.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii, under AWIPS
Header TCPCP1 and WMO Header WTPA31 PHFO, beginning at 11 PM HST.
Chilliwack, British Columbia, Canada reportedly had a new record most consecutive days with a high temperature hotter than 30 C / 86 F of 11 such days, which beat the previous record of 9 such days.

Link
Quoting 238. sar2401:

It pays to read the whole thing. The depression is just moving into CPHC area of responsibility and they'll now issue advisories.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future advisories will be issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii, under AWIPS
Header TCPCP1 and WMO Header WTPA31 PHFO, beginning at 11 PM HST.


It must not pay that well because you didn't read my post carefully enough. I asked "is this the first time that an NHC office only issued one advisory on a system?" Then you quoted the part that said "This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system." Which confirms the basis of my question. Which for some reason you decided was my not reading it all the way?

The NHC is only posting one advisory on TD 4 (presuming that it doesn't curl back east at some point and re-enter the EPAC area of responsibility). Has this ever happened?
Quoting 227. HurriHistory:


Big circulation heading towards South Florida. At least it's nice to look at. At this point I'll take what I can get.

2 years ago very close to this date there was a feature exactly like that there.
Quoting 191. Jedkins01:



Say good bye to the dry season around here, looks like it's going to be the rainy season from now through next year, lol.

Fine with me
Quoting 234. BaltimoreBrian:

OK. From earlier posts Alaska is 300,000 acres ahead of 2004, which had the greatest total acreage burned. I don't know if another year had greater acreage burned by July 7. We'll see what happens.

Partial quote from Barefootontherocks:

Not that the total acreage in the long run makes any difference. Alaska's been burning uncontrolled on and off since Christ wore sandals and the Alaskan Siberian Yupiks were still in Siberia.


By that reasoning...
How do we prevent this in the future?
Quoting 200. Dakster:

California asked for rain, now they just might get it.

I hope when they asked, they also asked for a shut off point.
The two instances of a very strong El Nino since 1950 brought rain two to three time above normal, with places in northern California having five times their normal rain. They also brought catastrophic flooding over almost the entire state. People in California had better hope this El Nino doesn't turn out to be in the very strong category.
Quoting 236. HurricaneAndre:

When will the next name form.
A this month
B August
C September
Me this month.

B
Quoting 243. Kenfa03:

How do we prevent this in the future?
Mostly, let what's burning now burn. We rid the forest of excessive undergrowth so any future fires will be smaller. Fire is a natural event in the forest. By humans trying to control these fires we make the ultimate fire much worse. Make stands around housing and towns to the extent possible but let the rest of it burn until it's put out by rain or snow.
Quoting 240. MysteryMeat:



It must not pay that well because you didn't read my post carefully enough. I asked "is this the first time that an NHC office only issued one advisory on a system?" Then you quoted the part that said "This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system." Which confirms the basis of my question. Which for some reason you decided was my not reading it all the way?

The NHC is only posting one advisory on TD 4 (presuming that it doesn't curl back east at some point and re-enter the EPAC area of responsibility). Has this ever happened?
Yes, there have been a couple of similar storms that crossed boundaries. I'd have to do some research to see if there was only one advisory. I misinterpreted your question. I thought you were saying that, because the NHC only issued one advisory that was the last, it meant there would be no more advisories for the storm.
Quoting 193. Dakster:



Where can I send your cookie?

Yes you have.... over and over and over again...
You can send him a cookie in November. All we have right now is models.
Quoting 198. Kenfa03:

Man you are harsh. Willing to bet they think the same about you.


Except that science deniers have proven time and again that they will go to any lengths (including outright lying). And not just in regards to climate science. This pattern can be seen in any "controversial" science topic (evolution, vaccinations, etc.).

In fact, the more solid the science is, the more rabid the science deniers become. Have you seen some of the conspiracy posts on places like WUWT? Tin-foil hat levels of crazy mixed with zero actual knowledge about basic physical principles leads to some stories that make Sharknado look like a genuine scientific documentary.

Quoting 234. BaltimoreBrian:

OK. From earlier posts Alaska is 300,000 acres ahead of 2004, which had the greatest total acreage burned. I don't know if another year had greater acreage burned by July 7. We'll see what happens.

Partial quote from Barefootontherocks:

Not that the total acreage in the long run makes any difference. Alaska's been burning uncontrolled on and off since Christ wore sandals and the Alaskan Siberian Yupiks were still in Siberia.


By that reasoning...


You can't even get to a lot of the fires that are burning... Most fires up here are "monitored" and not "fought". The only get fought if people or structures are vulnerable.

Besides the enormous cost of hauling water out by helo to the fire or dropping fire retardant, the longer you go without a fire the more there is to burn, the more dangerous it becomes.

I am also sure fire retardant isn't cheap and while supposedly non-toxic, just how good is phosphate dumped on the ground?
Quoting 202. Bucsboltsfan:



How about a good concise update once a week? I think that would be just fine.
Considering that the Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology finds updating their ENSO info only once every two weeks to be perfectly adequate, your suggestion seems eminently sensible. :)
Quoting 250. Dakster:



You can't even get to a lot of the fires that are burning... Most fires up here are "monitored" and not "fought". The only get fought if people or structures are vulnerable.

Besides the enormous cost of hauling water out by helo to the fire or dropping fire retardant, the longer you go without a fire the more there is to burn, the more dangerous it becomes.

I am also sure fire retardant isn't cheap and while supposedly non-toxic, just how good is phosphate dumped on the ground?


Exposure to organophosphate (OP) flame retardants and insecticides have been linked to autism. Household dust contains OPs from furnishings, TVs and computers. Many associations with ill health are emerging, but the subject is complicated by the fact that they are a 'contributory factor', rather than a cause, in disease pathogenesis. Also, effects of chronic exposure to amounts deemed 'safe', can result in ill health after many years of such exposure. Toxicity studies do not address the problem of long term low level exposure.

Like every other environmental contributory factor to ill health, OPs and other harmful environmental chemicals interact with genetic predisposition, so some people are much more vulnerable to exposure than others. Many sheep farmers, here in the UK, have had their mental and physical health ruined by exposure to OPs in sheep dip. However, other farmers with similar levels of exposure, show no obvious ill effects. Genetic variants of the cytochrome P450 metabolizing enzymes are implicated.



00z GFS
forgot bernie doug hes my guy. has your guy taken big money from corporations for 2016? bet they have.
260. MahFL
Earlier in the week my forecast for this weekend was 98F, now JAX NWS has backed off to 95F. One wonders what happened to make them change temps ?
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
509 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TXC049-083-307-411-081200-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150708T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MCCULLOCH TX-SAN SABA TX-COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
509 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
BROWN...SOUTHEASTERN COLEMAN...WESTERN SAN SABA AND MCCULLOCH
COUNTIES...


AT 453 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT IS REPORTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN MCCULLOCH COUNTY
ALONG US 377 NEAR BRADY...NORTH TO THE COUNTY LINE. SEVERAL VEHICLES
HAVE BEEN SWEPT AWAY ALONG THIS ROUTE...WITH WATER RESCUES CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY.


IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT ENTER THE WATER.
TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO
NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO....CAMP
BOWIE...BYRDS...LAKE BROWNWOOD STATE PARK...LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR
THRIFTY...ZEPHYR...WINCHELL...TRICKHAM...ROCKWOOD ...MAY...LAKE
BROWNWOOD...EARLY...BROWNWOOD...BROOKESMITH...BLA NKET AND BANGS

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT...
CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 228...
CR 201 CROSSING CLEAR CREEK...
COUNTY ROAD 201 CROSSING CLEAR CREEK...
MILAM DR CROSSING S FORK OF WILLIS CREEK...
The area in Texas with water rescues (post #216) received quite a bit of rain in a 6-hour period. This is through 5 am CDT:

I'm getting deja vu from yesterday morning

An update on the Abilene rainfall record:

Record Report
Statement as of 02:15 am CDT on July 8, 2015

... Wettest day on record for Abilene...

Abilene Regional Airport received 8.26 inches of rainfall yesterday.
This sets a new record for rainfall in any single day... breaking the
previous record of 6.54 inches on may 11th 1928. This also breaks
the old daily record of 2.47 for this date... set back in 1905.
Quoting 264. LAbonbon:

An update on the Abilene rainfall record:

Record Report
Statement as of 02:15 am CDT on July 8, 2015

... Wettest day on record for Abilene...

Abilene Regional Airport received 8.26 inches of rainfall yesterday.
This sets a new record for rainfall in any single day... breaking the
previous record of 6.54 inches on may 11th 1928. This also breaks
the old daily record of 2.47 for this date... set back in 1905.
It's notable whenever a longstanding all-time record is broken, but it's particularly notable when that record is not just broken but smashed by a margin of, what, greater than 26%?
Quoting 249. Xyrus2000:



Except that science deniers have proven time and again that they will go to any lengths (including outright lying). And not just in regards to climate science. This pattern can be seen in any "controversial" science topic (evolution, vaccinations, etc.).

In fact, the more solid the science is, the more rabid the science deniers become. Have you seen some of the conspiracy posts on places like WUWT? Tin-foil hat levels of crazy mixed with zero actual knowledge about basic physical principles leads to some stories that make Sharknado look like a genuine scientific documentary.


I'm trying to understand climate change myself but some of the posts are here are downright depressing.
Good morning over there from sunny and windy Germany with moderate temps (thankfully!).
Outbreak of severe weather yesterday afternoon after the record heatwave caused considerable damage in some locations all over central, southern and eastern Germany. Most of the wind events were downbursts with hurricane force winds, others probably tornadoes; investigations are under way. Here some videos; guess there will be many more this evening which I'll try to collect in my blog.


Farnstaedt (Saxony-Anhalt). Watch the video at 1:10!!

Another one from Halle.

Video of the aftermath in Framersheim, a couple of miles south of me.

Heatwave unleashes storms and tornadoes
The Local (Germany), Published: 08 Jul 2015 08:52 GMT 02:00
The turbulent weather that has affected Germany since the weekend made itself felt again on Tuesday, causing flash floods, tornadoes and hail storms.
As the Mercury rose once again during the day on Tuesday, with temperatures climbing into the high thirties in the south west, electrical storms followed in the evening rising up from the south to cover the rest of the country.
Framersheim in Rhineland-Palatinate, a town of 1,600 people, was struck by a tornado on Tuesday evening. The storm ripped the roofs off several houses, reports the Sueddeustche Zeitung (SZ), which estimates costs at between 8-10 million Euros.
The interior minister of Rhineland-Palatinate told SZ that up to 100 houses were damaged by the tornado. ...



Rotating cell at Erdmannhausen in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg.

Very good pics from a much bigger supercell over Edenkoben. Should have been the same one as on the photo of post #157 last night. Edenkoben isn't far from Speyer.

More impressive pics and videos see Meteo Europe and Severe Weather Europe.
European Severe Weather Database shows that the wind incidents moved further to Poland and other eastern European countries.

Have a nice day!
Thanks for those videos, Barbz.

Here, the rainy season is finally with us (late, but plentiful) .
The strange thing is the wind.

Usually, June/july is pretty calm, wind wise, with occasional squally conditions before showers.
This year the winds have been brisk, and the sea is unusually rough and choppy.
Along with the continuing mass of sea-weed, the beaches on our windward coasts are a complete mess.

On the subject of the sea-weed....
It was thought that it was Sargassum weed, brought down south by wind and current anomalies.
But it turns out that it's a peculiar event, the result of highly nutritious outflow from the Amazon, mixing with unusually high-temp ocean waters off the coast of the Amazon delta.

The weed is loving that combination, and the researchers here who are looking at the thing say that they are not optimistic about the future of Caribbean tourism, because they think that this sea-weed is going to be the new normal.

It is covering the beaches and smells like rotting fish. Not very pleasant.

In the meantime, it is Turtle Nesting season, and the Leatherback, Hawksbill, Green are being found dead on beaches in increasing numbers, suffocated by the thick weed.

All in all, some very Dread and Dire news........
This should raise some eyebrows too. This El-Nino means some business. Getting closer to seeing what early Fall may look like across the US and I got to tell you it looks chaotic during a period that is usually quite weather wise across the US. Seeing another bullseye of heavy rains across TX sometime late Sept/early Oct. Something to keep a look out for.

WSI Energy Weather
‏@WSI_Energy
This is a BIG deal! Atmospheric ENSO index at +3 sigma! Strongest for an amplifying July El Nino dating back to 1948.
Quoting 263. LAbonbon:

I'm getting deja vu from yesterday morning


It's a situation very similar to what we had two weeks ago. The AB high is building into the SE so the front can't make much if any progress east. Waves of low pressure keep forming in the stalled front, which is anchored to a low way up in Canada that's also blocked from moving east. You can see on the water vapor loop that low pressure systems are taping moisture from all the way out in the Pacific, so the subtropical feed will continue to dump large amounts of rain along the front. This is another bad situation for Texas, which has gone from drought to flooding in less than a month.



I don't know about you guys but I am interested in seeing what this WWB does once it hits South America as it is very strong. Interested because these are some of the driest places on Earth on the Downward slopes that face the Pacific as trades are usually going from east to west not west to east so we could see some upslope rains in areas that see very little rain a year. Could be interesting in a week or 2 to see how this plays out.




Specifically in Chile
Bring back the weekly weather roundup videos!
href="http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/pr imary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthog raphic=-219.38,15.65,1134" target="_blank">Link

I was thinking these waves were symmetrical about the storm eyes, but I see they are offset nicely, with the big waves on the NE quadrant.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/ waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic =-219.38,15.65,1134
I don't know how to get the graphics in my links to show up nicely, apologies.
CHINA IS UNDER THE GUN. 

LINFA LOOKS VERY UNDER-RATED AS PER JTWC...




MEANWHILE CHAM-HOM  LOOKING RATHER PUTRID AT THE MOMENT.  DOES A WEAKER STORM MEAN FURTHER WEST TRACK WITH RESPECT CHINA?



...
"This pattern can be seen in any "controversial" science topic (evolution, vaccinations, etc.)".

That's quite broad. Etc?

You lump vaccinations and evolution--- Haha.
Pros and cons (potential side effects) to vaccinations exist, and anyone who chooses to immunize is informed of that. For 25-30 years (I forget exactly when this began but it occurred after parents started asking questions) the U.S. Fed, through the local Public Health agencies, requires a prospective vaccinee to sign an "informed consent" before receiving - or allowing a minor child to receive immunization - and there's a reason for that beyond CYA (covering your a$$). Parents need to inform themselves not only about vaccines but about, for example, "fire retardant sleepwear" as required for children ages 9 months to 14 years - a U.S. Fed requirement that came into being for our "protection."

Always best in life not to follow the cattle but to weigh the pros and cons and do what makes sense.
Uncle Sam may have good intentions but doesn't always know best.
From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for July 8, 2015:

Smoke Blankets British Columbia


acquired July 5, 2015


acquired July 6, 2015

A difficult fire season in western Canada brought its impacts to coastal city streets in early July 2015. A thick pall of smoke settled over Vancouver and adjacent areas of British Columbia, leading some residents to wear face masks and health officials to warn residents and World Cup tourists against outdoor activities.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired these images in the late morning on July 5 and 6. Note how the tan and gray smoke almost completely obscures the Strait of Georgia and southern Vancouver Island. Winds shifted abruptly between July 5 and 6, driving the smoke plume toward the east, dispersing it in some places while fouling the air in areas to the east, such as the Fraser Valley.
Read more
Quoting 266. Kenfa03:

I'm trying to understand climate change myself but some of the posts are here are downright depressing.


It's not exactly a happy topic. :P

But if you're looking for a site to give a summary introduction without diving into the heavy duty physics and math, you could check out Skeptical Science.
Quoting 268. pottery:

Thanks for those videos, Barbz.

Here, the rainy season is finally with us (late, but plentiful) .
The strange thing is the wind.

Usually, June/july is pretty calm, wind wise, with occasional squally conditions before showers.
This year the winds have been brisk, and the sea is unusually rough and choppy.
Along with the continuing mass of sea-weed, the beaches on our windward coasts are a complete mess.

On the subject of the sea-weed....
It was thought that it was Sargassum weed, brought down south by wind and current anomalies.
But it turns out that it's a peculiar event, the result of highly nutritious outflow from the Amazon, mixing with unusually high-temp ocean waters off the coast of the Amazon delta.

The weed is loving that combination, and the researchers here who are looking at the thing say that they are not optimistic about the future of Caribbean tourism, because they think that this sea-weed is going to be the new normal.

It is covering the beaches and smells like rotting fish. Not very pleasant.

In the meantime, it is Turtle Nesting season, and the Leatherback, Hawksbill, Green are being found dead on beaches in increasing numbers, suffocated by the thick weed.

All in all, some very Dread and Dire news........
Good morning, Pott. The Sargassum weed is causing trouble all the way up to Antigua. This is a picture of a beach in Barbados so the stuff is over there too. Apparently the problem there started last fall. Not only is is smelly and blocking the beaches, the turtles all over the Caribbean are being impacted as the beach nesting sites are covered in this weed. I had my prop fouled with floating Sargassum a few times. It's about a half hour job underwater getting all that stuff off the prop and shaft, so yachties are going to avoid places with that much floating weed. From what I've read, the strong trade winds are upsetting the normal circulation of the North Atlantic Gyre that holds the weed in the Sargasso Sea. I don't know if this is El Nino or what but I feel for you guys down there.

Quoting 276. ILwthrfan:

CHINA IS UNDER THE GUN. 

LINFA LOOKS VERY UNDER-RATED AS PER JTWC...


** WTPQ20 BABJ 081200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY LINFA 1510 (1510) INITIAL TIME 081200 UTC
00HR 22.2N 118.4E 970HPA 35M/S (70 knots)
30KTS WINDS 120KM NORTHEAST
150KM SOUTHEAST
120KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 10KM/H=

China Meteorological Administration
Quoting 277. Barefootontherocks:

"This pattern can be seen in any "controversial" science topic (evolution, vaccinations, etc.)".

That's quite broad. Etc?

You lump vaccinations and evolution--- Haha.
Pros and cons (potential side effects) to vaccinations exist, and anyone who chooses to immunize is informed of that. For 25-30 years (I forget exactly when this began but it occurred after parents started asking questions) the U.S. Fed, through the local Public Health agencies, requires a prospective vaccinee to sign an "informed consent" before receiving - or allowing a minor child to receive immunization - and there's a reason for that beyond CYA (covering your a$$). Parents need to inform themselves not only about vaccines but about, for example, "fire retardant sleepwear" as required for children ages 9 months to 14 years - a U.S. Fed requirement that came into being for our "protection."

Always best in life not to follow the cattle but to weigh the pros and cons and do what makes sense.
Uncle Sam may have good intentions but doesn't always know best.
Anti-vaxxers can indeed be lumped in with climate change deniers and those who don't support evolution inasmuch as such people tend to reject logic, evidence, and empirical science and instead base their opinions on the shaky and unstable scaffolding of ideology, superstition, conspiracy theory, and bog-standard ignorance. Blog "science" is not real science; any thinking adult should know that...
We just got back from Mexico a week ago and Riviera Maya looks the exact same. They said its been going on for months.

Quoting 280. sar2401:

Good morning, Pott. The Sargassum weed is causing trouble all the way up to Antigua. This is a picture of a beach in Barbados so the stuff is over there too. Apparently the problem there started last fall. Not only is is smelly and blocking the beaches, the turtles all over the Caribbean are being impacted as the beach nesting sites are covered in this weed. I had my prop fouled with floating Sargassum a few times. It's about a half hour job underwater getting all that stuff off the prop and shaft, so yachties are going to avoid places with that much floating weed. From what I've read, the strong trade winds are upsetting the normal circulation of the North Atlantic Gyre that holds the weed in the Sargasso Sea. I don't know if this is El Nino or what but I feel for you guys down there.


Quoting 280. sar2401:

Good morning, Pott. The Sargassum weed is causing trouble all the way up to Antigua. This is a picture of a beach in Barbados so the stuff is over there too. Apparently the problem there started last fall. Not only is is smelly and blocking the beaches, the turtles all over the Caribbean are being impacted as the beach nesting sites are covered in this weed. I had my prop fouled with floating Sargassum a few times. It's about a half hour job underwater getting all that stuff off the prop and shaft, so yachties are going to avoid places with that much floating weed. From what I've read, the strong trade winds are upsetting the normal circulation of the North Atlantic Gyre that holds the weed in the Sargasso Sea. I don't know if this is El Nino or what but I feel for you guys down there.


Quoting 276. ILwthrfan:

CHINA IS UNDER THE GUN. 

LINFA LOOKS VERY UNDER-RATED AS PER JTWC...




MEANWHILE CHAM-HOM  LOOKING RATHER PUTRID AT THE MOMENT.  DOES A WEAKER STORM MEAN FURTHER WEST TRACK WITH RESPECT CHINA?



...


Yes, Linfa looks like a right typhoon now.
Quoting 280. sar2401:

Good morning, Pott. The Sargassum weed is causing trouble all the way up to Antigua. This is a picture of a beach in Barbados so the stuff is over there too. Apparently the problem there started last fall. Not only is is smelly and blocking the beaches, the turtles all over the Caribbean are being impacted as the beach nesting sites are covered in this weed. I had my prop fouled with floating Sargassum a few times. It's about a half hour job underwater getting all that stuff off the prop and shaft, so yachties are going to avoid places with that much floating weed. From what I've read, the strong trade winds are upsetting the normal circulation of the North Atlantic Gyre that holds the weed in the Sargasso Sea. I don't know if this is El Nino or what but I feel for you guys down there.



Yep. Bad stuff.

Turns out it is NOT coming from the Sargasso area.
Coming up from off the coast of Brazil.

Google "caribbean sea weed" for some current info.
Quoting 283. georgia325:

We just got back from Mexico a week ago and Riviera Maya looks the exact same. They said its been going on for months.




Due to increased Easterly Trades as a result of strengthening El-Nino in the Pacific.
Quoting 276. ILwthrfan:

CHINA IS UNDER THE GUN.

LINFA LOOKS VERY UNDER-RATED AS PER JTWC...




MEANWHILE CHAM-HOM LOOKING RATHER PUTRID AT THE MOMENT. DOES A WEAKER STORM MEAN FURTHER WEST TRACK WITH RESPECT CHINA?



...

It looks like Chan-hom is sucking in a lot of dry air. The latest advisory has the storm at 95 mph so that's a cat 1 now. 95 mph may be a little optimistic given the appearance of the storm but, without recon, it's hard to tell. The current forecast is for Chan-hom to make landfall as a cat 2 somewhere around Wenzhou. I don't see any reason why that's going to change, even if the storm weakens. While it's good that Chan-hom is not forecast to make a direct hit on Shanghai, Wenzhou is a city of nine million people, so this storm is going to be trouble no matter what.
I guess he didn't take my suggestion of giving a good concise update once a week instead of hourly. Dang...
Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Meanwhile, the local weather in FL. especially around Tampa Bay is going to get interesting starting on Sunday through at least the early part of next week with a backdoor cold front as an Upper Level Ridge shifts toward the Mississippi River Valley. We'll probably be stuck in the weakness between the two ridges and that will help draw up some moisture from the Caribbean as well.




The graphic you posted shows a bullseye of PWAT around NE FL, yet you mention that weather in the Tampa Bay area is going to get interesting next week. From what I can tell in looking at the models, rainfall chances in Tampa into next week are going to increase, but doesn't appear to be anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. The GFS shows some high rain totals for the nature coast, but this is well north of Tampa proper. Can you help me understand how you expect this back door cold front to impact Tampa beyond the usual high rain chances for July?
Quoting 286. StormTrackerScott:



Due to increased Easterly Trades as a result of strengthening El-Nino in the Pacific.

Due to anomalous marine conditions off the coast of Eastern Brazil.
Transported by ocean currents.
Also affecting the coast of West Africa.

It's BIG.
If this trend continues we won't see any storms in the MDR this year. Biggest threat area is obvious here SW Atlantic/Gulf. That is the US should still be on guard this year as we could have some fast builders close to the US over the coming months.

Much of the MDR is struggling just to attain 26C SST's which are needed to sustain tropical activity.



Quoting 283. georgia325:

We just got back from Mexico a week ago and Riviera Maya looks the exact same. They said its been going on for months.



I did not realise that it had affected so far west as yet.

Our North Coast, where most of our popular beaches are, is still weed-free.
The prevailing currents are sweeping the floating weed around the NorthEast point and out into the Caribbean Sea.
Same thing in Tobago.
The windward side of the Islands are OK .
The fishing community is being hit real hard, and the price of fish is going up fast !
Quoting 290. pottery:


Due to anomalous marine conditions off the coast of Eastern Brazil.
Transported by ocean currents.
Also affecting the coast of West Africa.

It's BIG.


These Easterly Trades are so strong that they are upwelling cool water all across the Central & Eastern Pacific. Quite amazing to see this type of set up and is a good indicator that the MDR is in for a quiet Hurricane Season. Closer to the US & maybe NW Caribbean should be on alert though.
Yeah, I assumed it had something to do with El Nino. The locals all swear its global warming. I just let it go.

Quoting 286. StormTrackerScott:



Due to increased Easterly Trades as a result of strengthening El-Nino in the Pacific.
Quoting 292. pottery:


I did not realise that it had affected so far west as yet.

Our North Coast, where most of our popular beaches are, is still weed-free.
The prevailing currents are sweeping the floating weed around the NorthEast point and out into the Caribbean Sea.
Same thing in Tobago.
The windward side of the Islands are OK .
The fishing community is being hit real hard, and the price of fish is going up fast !


The trades across the Caribbean at times have been the strongest on record this was posted by Phil Klotzbach back in June.
big news for nino 3.4 it this crossed 1.6 today

Quoting 294. georgia325:

Yeah, I assumed it had something to do with El Nino. The locals all swear its global warming. I just let it go.




You know the drill anything abnormal people tag GW to it. In another 15 to 20 once another really Strong ENSO appears then we will see this again.
Quoting 296. Tazmanian:

big news for nino 3.4 it this crossed 1.6 today




Yup effects of this WWB are beginning to be realized and values will only go much higher the next several weeks.
Quoting 285. pottery:


Yep. Bad stuff.

Turns out it is NOT coming from the Sargasso area.
Coming up from off the coast of Brazil.

Google "caribbean sea weed" for some current info.
I'll be darned. There's a good article about this from the Daily Express that explains what's happening. All of the weed did come from the Sargasso Sea originally, but some of it broke off and was transported south in the subtropical Atlantic, from Brazil all the way to Africa. Now it's headed back north courtesy of the North Brazil Current, Guyana Current and Antilles Current. This has been going on since at least 2011 but it seems that it's impacting the eastern Caribbean worse this year than previous years. I don't know what the deal is but the weed normally wouldn't have survived off Brazil because the water was too cool. With warming oceans, it's able to live and then get transported back up to you. It's hard to imagine climate change isn't playing a role in this.
Quoting 295. StormTrackerScott:



The trades across the Caribbean at times have been the strongest on record this was posted by Phil Klotzbach back in June.

Yea, the trades have been very strong this June/July.
I commented on that in post 268.

Weirdness prevails !
Just noting that a partial explanation for the cooler SST's in the Central Atlantic is the proliferation of SAL which has been very thick lately and prevents the sun from warming the waters; when the Sal does it's usual retreat Northward starting in mid-August around 10N, we should see an increase in SST's across that corridor towards the Caribbean.

Quoting 299. sar2401:

I'll be darned. There's a good article about this from the Daily Express that explains what's happening. All of the weed did come from the Sargasso Sea originally, but some of it broke off and was transported south in the subtropical Atlantic, from Brazil all the way to Africa. Now it's headed back north courtesy of the North Brazil Current, Guyana Current and Antilles Current. This has been going on since at least 2011 but it seems that it's impacting the eastern Caribbean worse this year than previous years. I don't know what the deal is but the weed normally wouldn't have survived off Brazil because the water was too cool. With warming oceans, it's able to live and then get transported back up to you. It's hard to imagine climate change isn't playing a role in this.


Bingo !

Interesting stuff, eh ?
Quoting 294. georgia325:

Yeah, I assumed it had something to do with El Nino. The locals all swear its global warming. I just let it go.


El Nino may be playing some role in the dispersal of the weed this year, but this has been going on long before we had El Nino.
Quoting 303. sar2401:

El Nino may be playing some role in the dispersal of the weed this year, but this has been going on long before we had El Nino.

That's a fact.

See all you guys later.
Have a Good One !
Quoting 302. pottery:



Bingo !

Interesting stuff, eh ?
It really is. If it wasn't for the warmer waters off Brazil, the weed, which has been transported south in previous years, would have died and sunk to the bottom. Now it's able to thrive and then be transported to even warmer waters in the Caribbean. I haven't been sailing down there since 2003 but this is a big change from what I saw. I'd run into an occasion patch of floating weed, especially on the Atlantic side around Antigua and St. Lucia, but it was just a few patches. The only thing I ever saw on the beaches was some of the black debris left behind by dead weeds. I never saw the amount of weed that you're seeing now. There has been a drastic change there in the last 12 years, and El Nino doesn't explain it. The only thing that does is warmer water in the subtropical Atlantic.
All Global Weather, has been amped by the Warming of the Biosphere,...as it is fundamentally Warmer, and moister than anytime in the past 800K years.

Facts are like dat.

This Jan thru May is the Warmest EVER recorded, and even warmer than last years record warmth.

All these quotes from certain bloggers speak for themselves.

"I've never seen such Lighting"

"The rain rates are crazy"

And from Guess who?

One only has to enter a wu handle in google to get that easily.

Eric HolthausVerified account
‏@EricHolthaus
Today's forecast data are the clearest indication yet that this year’s El Niño is heading for a new all-time record:
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



You know the drill anything abnormal people tag GW to it. In another 15 to 20 once another really Strong ENSO appears then we will see this again.


Your statement is Humorous, as your drill, daily is predictable as Sunrise and Sunset times..

Add the copious JB innuendo of Politics and BS, and boom, yer a regla weatherbell,bro.

: )
"Every dog has his day" applies to this blog very well :)

It is nice to see Chan-woom Chan-wanh Chan-whom has not intensified above a cat 1 yet.I think its because of the large size that is helping keep its intensification a bay.
Quoting 309. Patrap:



Your statement is Humorous, as your drill, daily is predictable as Sunrise and Sunset times..

Add the copious JB innuendo of Politics and BS, and boom, yer a regla weatherbell,bro.

: )


Oh boy won't even entertain this mess.
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



You know the drill anything abnormal people tag GW to it. In another 15 to 20 once another really Strong ENSO appears then we will see this again.


you're complaining about other people having a one-track mind?
Quoting 308. StormTrackerScott:

Eric HolthausVerified account
‏@EricHolthaus
Today's forecast data are the clearest indication yet that this year’s El Niño is heading for a new all-time record:

Very happy for you Scott :)

Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



You know the drill anything abnormal people tag GW to it.
1) That's provably not true.

2) Literally every weather or climate event occurring nowadays is happening in an atmosphere energized by the excess heat being trapped by the extra 4 million metric tons of CO2 we humans are digging and sucking out of the ground and belching into the atmosphere every hour of every day. In fact, at this point it's incumbent on those who feel otherwise to prove it.

Now, there is direct scientific evidence that warmer ocean waters are a precursor to the shifting areal coverage and extent of sargassum. And while some of this is almost certainly ENSO-related, only a person ignorant of climate change would think that natural cycles are the sole (or even primary) reason the weed is moving northward...


Lots of flash flooding concerns across Missouri today as more rain is dumping on areas that were hit hard on Monday.
Quoting 291. StormTrackerScott:

If this trend continues we won't see any storms in the MDR this year. Biggest threat area is obvious here SW Atlantic/Gulf. That is the US should still be on guard this year as we could have some fast builders close to the US over the coming months.

Much of the MDR is struggling just to attain 26C SST's which are needed to sustain tropical activity.





As seen in the past 10 years in the Atlantic Caribbean or Gulf nothing develops because of dry air intrusion. We could have all the extremely hot water temperatures but along comes wind shear and then the final destruction of the storm dry air. It is normal now to see storms go poof or hybrid abnormal systems like Ike or Sandy. Why is that well everything can't be blamed on Nino or GW.
Quoting 277. Barefootontherocks:

"This pattern can be seen in any "controversial" science topic (evolution, vaccinations, etc.)".

That's quite broad. Etc?

You lump vaccinations and evolution--- Haha.
Pros and cons (potential side effects) to vaccinations exist, and anyone who chooses to immunize is informed of that. For 25-30 years (I forget exactly when this began but it occurred after parents started asking questions) the U.S. Fed, through the local Public Health agencies, requires a prospective vaccinee to sign an "informed consent" before receiving - or allowing a minor child to receive immunization - and there's a reason for that beyond CYA (covering your a$$). Parents need to inform themselves not only about vaccines but about, for example, "fire retardant sleepwear" as required for children ages 9 months to 14 years - a U.S. Fed requirement that came into being for our "protection."

Always best in life not to follow the cattle but to weigh the pros and cons and do what makes sense.
Uncle Sam may have good intentions but doesn't always know best.


Thank you Barefoot for providing a wonderful example of how science deniers operate. Implying there is some sort of ulterior motive or conspiracy when there's none present.

All medical procedures, no matter how small, require the CYA waiver. Why? Because humans are not homogeneous organisms. It's impossible to know every random deviation, mutation, etc in the human gene pool. You may just be in that weird .01% of the population that has some rare allergy that could result in fatal complications from a simple procedure (like getting a shot, receiving stitches, etc.). You have to sign one even when donating blood.

But a science denier will take something like the rare complication and imply something like vaccinations are "bad". They find some rare case (or in a number of cases, will just make something up) where someone had complications from a vaccination, and use it as a rallying cry to champion their ignorance. Remember when Senator Bachman claimed that vaccines caused mental retardation without a single shred of scientific evidence? That's science denialism in the limelight.

I'm sure such science deniers would change their tune if they ever saw a ward full of children suffering from smallpox, polio, pertussis, etc. , but out of sight out of mind.

Fire retardants are an example of how science evolves over time. They were used to solve a problem (people dying in fires due to fast conflagration rates of household materials). As we gained a better understanding, we found out that some of these retardants were detrimental with long term exposure (such as higher incidence rates of cancer). Like asbestos and other materials found to be toxic later, they old retardants were banned and no longer used (but plenty of people still have old couches and such so it'll still be around).

This is like any other branch of science. As it improves over time, we find out new information. Some of it makes you cry "Eureka!". Some of it just makes you go "Oh...that's not good". And some of it just makes you cry. That's the way science works.

But what science deniers will do will point out every single failure in science and claim we'd be better off without whatever science they disagree with. It's a silly argument, but you see it even on here.


Quoting 316. frank727:


As seen in the past 10 years in the Atlantic Caribbean or Gulf nothing develops because of dry air intrusion. We could have all the extremely hot water temperatures but along comes wind shear and then the final destruction of the storm dry air. It is normal now to see storms go poof or hybrid abnormal systems like Ike or Sandy. Why is that well everything can't be blamed on Nino or GW.
Fair enough. So to what do you attribute all the shear and dry air? The atmosphere doesn't do things because it feels like it; it responds to multiple stimuli. So in your opinion, what might those stimuli be?
Quoting 314. Neapolitan:

1) That's provably not true.

2) Literally every weather or climate event occurring nowadays is happening in an atmosphere energized by the excess heat being trapped by the extra 4 million metric tons of CO2 we humans are digging and sucking out of the ground and belching into the atmosphere every hour of every day. In fact, at this point it's incumbent on those who feel otherwise to prove it.

Now, there is direct scientific evidence that warmer ocean waters are a precursor to the shifting areal coverage and extent of sargassum. And while some of this is almost certainly ENSO-related, only a person ignorant of climate change would think that natural cycles are the sole (or even primary) reason the weed is moving northward...
I'm climate change ignorant. Is there a way to prevent it? Lots of doom and gloom on here. Seems like a lot of miserable people.
320. emguy
Quoting 315. tampabaymatt:



Lots of flash flooding concerns across Missouri today as more rain is dumping on areas that were hit hard on Monday.


The weather has actually been rough across the entire area all week (all season for the matter).

Here in the KC Metro, there have officially been 5 tornadoes in last six days.

On Monday evening, our tornado sirens were going for about an hour, and we received 3 severe storms at my house. Here's some video I took during the second of the three storms.

Link
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



You know the drill anything abnormal people tag GW to it. In another 15 to 20 once another really Strong ENSO appears then we will see this again.


You're right. The warmer global land and ocean temperatures of the past century or so are just caused by...um...you're heavy breathing over El Nino?

Thermodynamics. The additional heat in the system is not magically appearing out of nowhere and is certainly not due to a century of persistent El Nino conditions.
Quoting 319. Kenfa03:

I'm climate change ignorant. Is there a way to prevent it? Lots of doom and gloom on here. Seems like a lot of miserable people.


Sure, figure out a way to burn less fossil fuels with marginal impact on people's lives. There's no doom and gloom here, just realism and science. The outlook is not good if we continue on present course, sorry it isn't being sugar coated.
Quoting 319. Kenfa03:

I'm climate change ignorant. Is there a way to prevent it? Lots of doom and gloom on here. Seems like a lot of miserable people.


I believe we are past the tipping point. Although climate change has been part of earth's history- it has been since the Industrial Revolution and man's use of fossil fuels that we see the accelerated pace of change.
Seems we have another blocking High over the Southeast, oh joy, hot and dry again!

Quoting 302. pottery:



Bingo !

Interesting stuff, eh ?


One has to wonder about chemistry changes, ie PH, and CO2 saturation levels that are accelerating, and nutrient loading. Sargassum is a macro-algae and responds to N and P.
Quoting 325. 69Viking:

Seems we have another blocking High over the Southeast, oh joy, hot and dry again!




It appears Coastal East Central Florida has low rain chances into next week. Perhaps that ULL near the Bahamas will allow for some rain by the middle of next week.
Quoting 319. Kenfa03:

I'm climate change ignorant. Is there a way to prevent it? Lots of doom and gloom on here. Seems like a lot of miserable people.
humans will just have to adjust to the coming new climate or go the way of the dinsoaurs,there is little humans can do, even IF every car stopped running today, if every coal burning plant stopped running etc..it may just be too late, so...we adjust,we get used to the warmer climate, we get used to new patterns of storms and droughts .. there is no..other place for humans to go huh...so we adjust or perish.
Quoting 301. weathermanwannabe:

Just noting that a partial explanation for the cooler SST's in the Central Atlantic is the proliferation of SAL which has been very thick lately and prevents the sun from warming the waters; when the Sal does it's usual retreat Northward starting in mid-August around 10N, we should see an increase in SST's across that corridor towards the Caribbean.


Good morning. It has been pretty hazy here the last few days ...
before we call the season dead due to low SST's......might we first look at where it is typical for a system to form in July




now let's look at sst's where we would expect to see tropical activity....



now looking at where we would expect tropical formation... i'm sure we can all present many factors that would inhibit tropical formation at the moment......sst's would not be one of them
one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.
Quoting 304. Patrap:


Mostly in the last decade of the month ... 21 - 31 July sees a real ramp up in activity some seasons.
Quoting 317. Xyrus2000:



Thank you Barefoot for providing a wonderful example of how science deniers operate. Implying there is some sort of ulterior motive or conspiracy when there's none present.

All medical procedures, no matter how small, require the CYA waiver. Why? Because humans are not homogeneous organisms. It's impossible to know every random deviation, mutation, etc in the human gene pool. You may just be in that weird .01% of the population that has some rare allergy that could result in fatal complications from a simple procedure (like getting a shot, receiving stitches, etc.). You have to sign one even when donating blood.

But a science denier will take something like the rare complication and imply something like vaccinations are "bad". They find some rare case (or in a number of cases, will just make something up) where someone had complications from a vaccination, and use it as a rallying cry to champion their ignorance. Remember when Senator Bachman claimed that vaccines caused mental retardation without a single shred of scientific evidence? That's science denialism in the limelight.

I'm sure such science deniers would change their tune if they ever saw a ward full of children suffering from smallpox, polio, pertussis, etc. , but out of sight out of mind.

Fire retardants are an example of how science evolves over time. They were used to solve a problem (people dying in fires due to fast conflagration rates of household materials). As we gained a better understanding, we found out that some of these retardants were detrimental with long term exposure (such as higher incidence rates of cancer). Like asbestos and other materials found to be toxic later, they old retardants were banned and no longer used (but plenty of people still have old couches and such so it'll still be around).

This is like any other branch of science. As it improves over time, we find out new information. Some of it makes you cry "Eureka!". Some of it just makes you go "Oh...that's not good". And some of it just makes you cry. That's the way science works.

But what science deniers will do will point out every single failure in science and claim we'd be better off without whatever science they disagree with. It's a silly argument, but you see it even on here.





Just on a side note, the pertussis vaccine eventually wears off after a few decades. I found this out by getting the disease at age 39 in 1997. Fortunately my case was mild. I still felt awful, hurt horribly in the throat and coughed constantly.
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.


Please, say that again, slowly to yourself and think about dat.

: )

Quoting 328. LargoFl:

humans will just have to adjust to the coming new climate or go the way of the dinsoaurs,there is little humans can do, even IF every car stopped running today, if every coal burning plant stopped running etc..it may just be too late, so...we adjust,we get used to the warmer climate, we get used to new patterns of storms and droughts .. there is no..other place for humans to go huh...so we adjust or perish.

There's no adjusting to no food and/or water.
And we may not be able to prevent global warming now, but we can certainly act to lessen the potential for higher end warming, although whether we will remains to be seen.
Quoting 331. ricderr:

before we call the season dead due to low SST's......might we first look at where it is typical for a system to form in July




now let's look at sst's where we would expect to see tropical activity....



now looking at where we would expect tropical formation... i'm sure we can all present many factors that would inhibit tropical formation at the moment......sst's would not be one of them


: )


Chan-hom

Linfa

Nangka

JMA Tropical Cyclone Info
Quoting 316. frank727:


As seen in the past 10 years in the Atlantic Caribbean or Gulf nothing develops because of dry air intrusion. We could have all the extremely hot water temperatures but along comes wind shear and then the final destruction of the storm dry air. It is normal now to see storms go poof or hybrid abnormal systems like Ike or Sandy. Why is that well everything can't be blamed on Nino or GW.


THings are still developing. Not as frequently. El Nino increases shear.. that's a fact. Storms going poof
has happened as long as we have been in our current climate state, the past few millenia at least. Hybrid storms have been common in the past and will remain so.

Not everything is new and unprecedented.
Imagine 1992 when the first storm didn't develop until late August, I bet everyone was calling it a bust and then along came Andrew!
Quoting 336. SeriouslySushi:


There's no adjusting to no food and/or water.
And we may not be able to prevent global warming now, but we can certainly act to lessen the potential for higher end warming, although whether we will remains to be seen.
well IF your correct..we go the way of the dinosaurs huh..the earth has seen species come and go all thru its history.
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.
one interesting thought on contracting terminal cancer..it would be great..to lose some of this weight.

See #335...
Quoting 327. rmbjoe1954:



It appears Coastal East Central Florida has low rain chances into next week. Perhaps that ULL near the Bahamas will allow for some rain by the middle of next week.
Doesn't look like it is going anywhere for the noo ... hope it stays east of us until after the holiday on Friday...
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.


One species grows as far north as Delaware.

I'll take decent maple syrup now over the prospect of palm trees in Boston in the future.

If this comes to pass, be careful not to step on those fire ant mounds next to the palm trees. And watch out for coral snakes and cottonmouths.

And keep up on your yellow fever/malaria/dengue/chagas ..... vaccinations.
Call the season dead when it's November 30th.September was not a active month T.C wise here in the Atlantic last year but October produced 3 storms with one attaining high end cat 4 status.Besides we had two storms every month last year which isn't really that bad.
Quoting 336. SeriouslySushi:


There's no adjusting to no food and/or water.
And we may not be able to prevent global warming now, but we can certainly act to lessen the potential for higher end warming, although whether we will remains to be seen.


I'm more worried about adjusting to no oxygen when the ocean acidifies and the plankton is killed.

Quoting 323. Neapolitan:

The realization that we're killing ourselves can indeed be burdened by doom and gloom, and understandably so. If that reality is too much, might I suggest these alternate websites?
Thanks for the help. Any suggestions on how many years before humans perish? Does my 2 yr old grandson have a chance?
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.

Even if that were possible, it would be at the expense of what? The native trees? The beautiful fall foliage? Sugar maples? Native hardwoods? The critters that make their homes and get their food from the native flora? Upsetting the entire ecosystem?

As one who was born, raised, and spent most of my life in New England, seeing palm trees grow there would be a tragedy.
Quoting 319. Kenfa03:

I'm climate change ignorant. Is there a way to prevent it?


ignorance? yes, you can start by reading up on the subject.
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.

And what would be growing in Miami when palms are growing in New England? Coral, perhaps?
Quoting 334. georgevandenberghe:



Just on a side note, the pertussis vaccine eventually wears off after a few decades. I found this out by getting the disease at age 39 in 1997. Fortunately my case was mild. I still felt awful, hurt horribly in the throat and coughed constantly.


one of the reasons i just got a booster. that and being a gardener means possible exposure to tetanus.
Quoting 219. leofarnsworth:

Forget the Atlantic Hurricane season. RIP the Wunderground blog. I fear the nasty climate debate has taken its toll on people reading the blog.....

Uhh for your info, if you can realize it or not, it's only early July, which is typically quiet, and besides, in terms of named storms, we're over a month ahead of schedule.
WWB continues to trend stronger further East. This is the big reason why ENSO all the models now on the July update have seen huge jumps up. NMME mean went up 0.6C from June. Very impressive update for July and is the likely result of the WWB & MJO working in tandem.

The BOM enso model went up 0.7C to 0.8C from a month ago.

mdr? erry quiet kind of like 1992
Quoting 332. LargoFl:

one interesting thought on our warming planet..it would be great..to see Palm tree's able to grow in new England.

Why do you hate maple syrup?
Quoting 347. Kenfa03:

Thanks for the help. Any suggestions on how many years before humans perish? Does my 2 yr old grandson have a chance?


Who said anything about "humans perishing"? There will certainly be an increase in situations that could directly lead to increases in the probability of human death. Seems like you are being...coy.
Quoting 340. 69Viking:

Imagine 1992 when the first storm didn't develop until late August, I bet everyone was calling it a bust and then along came Andrew!
We were going along very nicely with our "bust" season ... first major to impact The Bahamas since the 1960s ....
Nobody paid much attention to it at first. That didn't last long ...
Quoting 341. LargoFl:

well IF your correct..we go the way of the dinosaurs huh..the earth has seen species come and go all thru its history.

So, you're willing to sacrifice the entire human race on your NO BIG GUB'MINT altar. Interesting.
Quoting 341. LargoFl:

well IF your correct..we go the way of the dinosaurs huh..the earth has seen species come and go all thru its history.


well IF you studied the Earths past History a tad better, you could maybe tell us which species in the past caused their OWN extinction.

Oh, and happy 43 rd anniversary as well.

: )
Quoting 354. islander101010:

mdr? erry quiet kind of like 1992


People need to understand SST's are quite cool across the MDR if not the coolest or one of the coolest on record for July. This was not the case in 1992. We could get 1 system or 2 I suppose but I wouldn't expect much at all from the MDR

Quoting 354. islander101010:

mdr? erry quiet kind of like 1992
perish the thought ... :-)
Even a season with 6 storms can be problematic if conditions lend themselves to a high number of landfalls.
Quoting 348. LAbonbon:


Even if that were possible, it would be at the expense of what? The native trees? The beautiful fall foliage? Sugar maples? Native hardwoods? The critters that make their homes and get their food from the native flora? Upsetting the entire ecosystem?

As one who was born, raised, and spent most of my life in New England, seeing palm trees grow there would be a tragedy.
Indeed. A statement made from total ignorance. If there were palm trees growing in New England I suspect that Florida would be uninhabitable.
"60kt"

Lol, okay, JTWC.

I always prepare for a Major, as it is the only hedge bet I can make on calamity.



Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



People need to understand SST's are quite cool across the MDR if not the coolest or one of the coolest on record for July. This was not the case in 1992. We could get 1 system or 2 I suppose but I wouldn't expect much at all from the MDR


I expect we will continue to see development in non-MDR regions as has been the trend the last few seasons.
Quoting 358. ACSeattle:


So, you're willing to sacrifice the entire human race on your NO BIG GUB'MINT altar. Interesting.
Not everyone was the A or B student in science class....
Quoting 364. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"60kt"

Lol, okay, JTWC.




Looks atleast 90 to 100 knts.
Quoting 347. Kenfa03:

Thanks for the help. Any suggestions on how many years before humans perish? Does my 2 yr old grandson have a chance?
Whoever said anything about humans perishing? Tens of millions--well, okay, hundreds of millions--will almost certainly die from the direct and indirect effects of climate change, as millions already have. But as a species, we're not going anywhere.

If the complete extinction of our species is the sole criterion for determining whether we need to do something about climate change, I'd say we have nothing to worry about.
UKMET lights up.......


Quoting 366. BahaHurican:

I expect we will continue to see development in non-MDR regions as has been the trend the last few seasons.


Yup, SW Atlantic/Gulf regions or anything over 20N should be of interest.
Quoting 318. Neapolitan:

Fair enough. So to what do you attribute all the shear and dry air? The atmosphere doesn't do things because it feels like it; it responds to multiple stimuli. So in your opinion, what might those stimuli be?


If I can point my finger at one equation I would most likely be banned.
The MDR produces the wave train, and I only worry in August and Sept when they reach this area.

Thats where the meatball meats da sauce.


Ones locale matters greatly.



Quoting 325. 69Viking:

Seems we have another blocking High over the Southeast, oh joy, hot and dry again!



Luckily it shouldn't completely stop pop up seabreeze storms in our neck of the woods.
_________________________________________________ ________________________

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1049 am EDT Wednesday Jul 8 2015

Near term [through today]...
with deep layer high pressure in place, another warm day is on
tap for the region. Expect high temperatures to reach well into
the 90s, with highest values over southeast Alabama and SW Georgia.
Seabreeze climatology for northeast flow favors the Panhandle coast for
convection this afternoon.
Local ecam guidance supports this with
highest probability of precipitation centered on Panama City. Have adjusted forecast probability of precipitation
slightly towards this solution, and lowered probability of precipitation for Tallahassee.

&&

Previous discussion [634 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through friday]...

Stacked high pressure over the southeast will limit convection to
sea breeze thunderstorms.
Probability of precipitation will only be 3o percent on Thursday
and 20 percent on Friday. Limited storms will keep temperatures hot with
highs in the middle 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat indices will be
above 100 both days.



Long term [friday night through wednesday]...

Deep layer ridging will remain in place through the weekend
limiting probability of precipitation to the 20-30 range. Starting Monday troughing will
build in from the northeast bringing increasing rain chances early
next week.
Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s, with heat
indices of 102-106 each day. Lows will be muggy in the middle 70s.
Quoting 365. Patrap:

I always prepare for a Major, as it is the only hedge bet I can make on calamity.






Chances of seeing that across the MDR this year i suspect are around 20% chances much higher closer to the US even as far north as the MId Atlantic.
Quoting 368. StormTrackerScott:



Looks atleast 90 to 100 knts.


pssst'

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 22:24:24 N Lon : 118:08:37 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 960.4mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.2

Center Temp : -44.5C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees



Quoting 330. BahaHurican:

Good morning. It has been pretty hazy here the last few days ...


Notwithstanding the typical June-July SAL issues, once it retreats a bit, the SST's will bump up several degrees across the Central Atlantic MDR. I will note that we have had a pretty consistent pattern of African waves lately and precipitation in the Sahel region (below) has been pretty good lately also. Just noting that we will probably have an active Cape Verde wave train this year. However, what happens once they start moving across the Central Atlantic is another issue; there is not much instability in the Central Atlantic and plenty of dry air (and potential shear) to worry about. If the last few years are any indication, we may not get any hurricanes that actually form from waves before reaching the Antilles again............................Been a long time, regardless of Enso phase, that we saw a hurricane barrel through the Lesser Antilles due to dry stable air and/or fast moving trades.

Quoting 372. frank727:



If I can point my finger at one equation I would most likely be banned.
It would be interesting if you have an idea to share that's different from what has been proposed so far. The shear can be attributed to developing el Nino conditions, but there's still a lot of room for thoughts about the dryness and stability.
Quoting 366. BahaHurican:

I expect we will continue to see development in non-MDR regions as has been the trend the last few seasons.
I think we'll still see some development in the MDR come September and October. Even the worst looking season manages to crank out a storm or two from the MDR when there's a window of opportunity. It's just doubtful we'll see much in the near future.
Just noticed this is the first day in a while without heat advisories of some sort issued for the Pacific Northwest. Bet that's welcome news for the folks up there.
Quoting 375. StormTrackerScott:



Chances of seeing that across the MDR this year i suspect are around 20% chances much higher closer to the US even as far north as the MId Atlantic.
Chance of seeing a major tc closer to the US are not higher this year, that information is false STS.
BTW islander, good to see you got keyboard problem solved... :-)
383. JRRP
Quoting 159. Xandra:

From Climate Central:

Two Maps Show Greenland’s Sudden Melt Season Onset

It appears that Greenland’s melt season is making up for lost time.

After a cool spring kept Greenland’s massive ice sheet mostly solid, a (comparatively) warm late June and early July have turned half the ice sheet’s surface into liquid, well outside the range of normal for this time of year.

Despite the ice sheet’s remote location, its slushy fingers reach across the globe, influencing sea levels and how fast the Gulf Stream current moves. As temperatures rise, its influence could grow larger as major summer melt events become regular occurrence. Recent warming has already contributed to ice loss in some areas previously thought to be stable and sped the trip of some glaciers into the sea.

Read more >>



Daily surface mass balance estimates of the Greenland ice sheet. Red indicates losses.
Credit: Polar Portal

Quoting 282. Neapolitan:

Anti-vaxxers can indeed be lumped in with climate change deniers and those who don't support evolution inasmuch as such people tend to reject logic, evidence, and empirical science and instead base their opinions on the shaky and unstable scaffolding of ideology, superstition, conspiracy theory, and bog-standard ignorance. Blog "science" is not real science; any thinking adult should know that...


Interesting and timely Lewandowski, Cook et al have just published a sequel to Recursive Fury, the following is an excerpt from a post at HotWhopper:

Recursive Fury reborn as Recurrent Fury

Today, a new version of Recursive Fury has been published. It has the title Recurrent Fury. The work has been expanded. The paper describes two additional pieces of research that confirm the original analysis. It's also got two extra authors, Professor Scott Brophy of Hobart and William Smith Colleges, and Professor Elisabeth Lloyd of Indiana University. The two new authors were quite independent of the original work and were asked to validate the original study, which they did.

Unlike the original, this new expanded version is anonymised, and only mentions blogs by name in Table 2 (see below). Instead of quoting comments, the new version paraphrases.



The paper describes three studies:

Study 1: Thematic analysis, which is the original Recursive Fury. The authors analysed blog articles and comments having conspiratorial themes related to LOG12. This was a depth analysis, which produced 172 items for the research. The researchers grouped these into categories based on that in the literature on conspiracy ideation. They also identified a new classification, which they called "Unreflexive Counterfactual Thinking".

Study 2: Recreating classifications. In this work, the blogosphere was examined again and a whole lot of additional items were added. These were combined with a subset from Study 1, and the larger set of 508 items were classified into groupings of like conspiratorial thinking. The aim here was to test that the classifications were robust. That is, if the final classifications from this larger study was similar to that in Study 1, it would support the original analysis. And it did.

Study 3: Blind test of conspiracist criteria. In this study, PhD students wrote scholarly criticisms of the moon-landing paper (written especially for this study by PhD students who were unknown to the authors). These were mixed in with the conspiratorial comments. Then a different lot of people classified the items in the combined set according to the conspiracy criteria. The purpose here was two-fold. It provided another independent test of the classification of the conspiratorial items. Plus, by comparing scholarly criticisms with conspiratorial comments, it showed that there was a difference between conspiratorial comments and scholarly criticism. This is despite the fact that the PhD students who wrote the scholarly criticisms were asked to be as sharply critical as possible of LOG12, the original paper. In other words, they were asked to nasty more than nice :)

Quoting 381. Gearsts:

Chance of seeing a major tc closer to the US are not higher this year, that information is false STS.


No true. The higher Sea Surface profile and lowest shear are near the US and have been all Summer. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing something cut off near the Bahamas.

This image has been the same since May. Again lowest shear is near the US. info is true my friend not false.

so one little chart with a line tells you the water temps. from 20 w to 80 w.??? thats a big chunk of this world. the sun gets directly over those mdr regions now. it will warm up quick
Typhoon Chan-hom

Typhoon Chan-hom
Last Updated Jul 8, 2015 12 GMT
Location 21.0N 131.7E Movement WNW
Wind 105 MPH

winds went up to 105 mph
Quoting 381. Gearsts:

Chance of seeing a major tc closer to the US are not higher this year, that information is false STS.


Again False info???????

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago
30-day-averaged shear in the Caribbean is now the strongest on record (CFSR began in 1979).
Quoting 386. StormTrackerScott:



No true. The higher Sea Surface profile and lowest shear are near the US and have been all Summer. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing something cut off near the Bahamas.

This image has been the same since May. Again lowest shear is near the US. info is true my friend not false.


Quoting 386. StormTrackerScott:



No true. The higher Sea Surface profile and lowest shear are near the US and have been all Summer. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing something cut off near the Bahamas.

This image has been the same since May. Again lowest shear is near the US. info is true my friend not false.


FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2015
We continue to foresee a below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. A moderate to
strong El Niño is underway, and the tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal. We
are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall.
Philip J. Klotzbach
Quoting 326. indianrivguy:



One has to wonder about chemistry changes, ie PH, and CO2 saturation levels that are accelerating, and nutrient loading. Sargassum is a macro-algae and responds to N and P.

If there is an "up side", it will be that there is a Massive industry waiting to get started.
Scoop all the weed up, wash it and compress it into fertiliser, for growing food.

It's crammed with Phosphorus, Calcium, and much else.
It will require washing first, which will need plenty fresh water.
Guyana can handle that.

What say the blog ?
Quoting 389. StormTrackerScott:



Again False info???????

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 8m8 minutes ago
30-day-averaged shear in the Caribbean is now the strongest on record (CFSR began in 1979).

Read my comment again.
Re: vaccination

I think it's real easy to be anti vaccination in a society where the vast majority of the most horrible transmitted diseases have been virtually eliminated by them. Why vaccinate against polio, e.g., when there's no one left to catch it from? To put it another way, there are a lot fewer anti vaccination criers in non-developed countries ...
Quoting 392. Gearsts:

Read my comment again.


If this doesn't change the how in the heck are we going to get anything atleast in the Eastern Caribbean. NW or SW Caribbean will have a chance due to some off shoots of these MJO pulse and its possible we could see a cross over from the E-Pac down the road other than that the C & Eastern Caribbean is looking dull.
Chance for a TC over the Atlantic MDR are very low but i do agree that closer to the US they are higher but compared to average they are still below normal.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is possible this weekend and early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

wow!!! maybe the next storm to watch
Quoting 358. ACSeattle:


So, you're willing to sacrifice the entire human race on your NO BIG GUB'MINT altar. Interesting.


Well that's one way to reduce the size of Government.
Storm chaser I know from Italy says there is a violent tornado associated with this supercell headed towards Venice.




Typhoon Chan-hom winds 105 mph on july 8 2015 at 11:20am
Local Severe Alert for Italy

Statement as of 2015-07-08 07:30:00 GMT, valid until 2015-07-08 07:30:00 GMT

Description: Extreme high temperature

Cities affected: Verona, Italy; Vicenza, Italy; Padova, Italy; Istrana, Italy; Treviso S. Angelo, Italy; Venice - San Nicolo, Italy; Venice, Italy; Padova Airport, Italy

Today's Extremes

Country Highs

102 F Cagliari
100 F Decimomannu
100 F Sigonella
99 F Amendola
96 F Falconara
Quoting 368. StormTrackerScott:



Looks atleast 90 to 100 knts.


I agree with you. To me is 80 knots at least...but not 100 knots.

Just to remember...look Odile:


Quoting 393. BahaHurican:

Re: vaccination

I think it's real easy to be anti vaccination in a society where the vast majority of the most horrible transmitted diseases have been virtually eliminated by them. Why vaccinate against polio, e.g., when there's no one left to catch it from? To put it another way, there are a lot fewer anti vaccination criers in non-developed countries ...


Unfortunately this is not true. Not long ago (months) a crew of vaccinators was killed because locals had been convinced that vaccines were part of a government plot to kill them. In other places, Pakistan for instance, there are religious taboos against introducing anything foreign into the body and this includes vaccines. Ask the WHO about resistance.
Here is the latest from China on the Typhoon situation:

SHANGHAI - Shanghai plans to suspend all passenger trains along the coast on Friday and Saturday as Typhoon Chan-Hom approaches, the Shanghai Railway Bureau said on Wednesday.

It is forecast that Typhoon Chan-Hom will begin to affect the Yangtze River Delta on Thursday. It could make landfall in Zhejiang province on Saturday morning, according to the latest meteorological advisory.

Meanwhile, 15 counties in South China's Guangdong province have issued a yellow alert for another approaching Typhoon, Linfa, closing elementary and middle schools.

Linfa is expected to hit the coast of Fujian and Guangdong provinces on Wednesday night.

As of 12 pm, Typhoon Linfa's center is in the South China Sea about 280 km southeast of Shantou City in Guangdong province. It is forecast to move northwest at a speed of 10 km per hour.

Rainstorms are expected in the eastern parts of Guangdong province from Wednesday to Thursday.

China has a four-tier color-coded weather warning system, with red representing the most severe weather, followed by orange, yellow and blue.

from NOAA....

Figure 2 shows the 5 and 95 percent confidence limits of U.S. hurricanes during El Niño. During El Niño, we are 90% confident that the probability of no hurricanes making U.S. landfall is somewhere between 17 and 24 percent. The probability of exactly one U.S. hurricane given an El Niño is between 45 and 58 percent, and the probability of two U.S. hurricanes during El Niño lies between 25 and 31 percent. Based on the historical data, there is no chance of more than 2 U.S. hurricanes during El Niño.

Here only empirical data is used to determine return frequencies of major U.S. hurricanes. Figure 5 shows that during an El Niño, the probability of at least one major U.S. hurricane is about 23 percent. The probabilities for at least one major U.S. hurricane during the other two phases are much higher: 58% for neutral conditions and 63% during a cold event. The United States is much more likely to see a major hurricane during neutral or cold events than during El Niño

Here we quantitatively relate the impacts of warm (and cold) sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States. Whether or not an El Niño event is identified during the early summer, as it was in 1997, the potential for a major outbreak of U.S. hurricanes in an El Niño year is significantly decreased. The chance of a major U.S. hurricane is reduced as well.
Quoting 369. Neapolitan:

Whoever said anything about humans perishing? Tens of millions--well, okay, hundreds of millions--will almost certainly die from the direct and indirect effects of climate change, as millions already have. But as a species, we're not going anywhere.

If the complete extinction of our species is the sole criterion for determining whether we need to do something about climate change, I'd say we have nothing to worry about.


74,000 years ago we went down to possibly 2000 homo sapiens, as we know from the bottleneck in the mtDNA.
So, we just about went extinct in the past.

Quoting 403. pablosyn:



I agree with you. To me is 80 knots at least...but not 100 knots.

Just to remember...look Odile:




Pretty interesting things were going on when I was away, now the chinese have two typhoons marching towards both of their deltas at the same time!!! Does anyone know the odds of this happening? They must be extremely low.


WOW...this is the MJO with some part in Brazil:


Interesting systems... extratropical of course, but still interesting...
LINFA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...


CHINA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION


Quoting 356. Naga5000:



Who said anything about "humans perishing"? There will certainly be an increase in situations that could directly lead to increases in the probability of human death. Seems like you are being...coy.

Did not intend to sound coy. Concerned about future for my family.
As a reference point...........A little confusing pulling up individual loops and images of a single storm without knowing what else (the other two) is in the neighborhood:


http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracke r/pacific-storm-tracker-1.257110/typhoon-11w-nangk a-12-1.356158


11:15 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time: Nangka’s forecast track has edged slightly more northwest; Joint Typhoon Warning Center now projects Nangka to pass 136 miles northeast of Saipan early Thursday afternoon. And JTWC sees Nangka diminishing to 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts as it curve north, 200 miles south of Iwo Jima at about midnight Monday Japan time.

Saipan and Tinian remain under typhoon watch and tropical storm warning, according to Guam’s National Weather Service. A typhoon warning remains in effect for the northern Marianas islands of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan. Guam and Rota remain safely out of harm’s way for the moment.


9:30 p.m. Wednesday, July 8, Guam time: The good news, if there is such a thing regarding tropical cyclones: It appears now as if Nangka will just miss out on becoming the fourth super typhoon of the season. It’s now forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to peak at 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts starting early Thursday morning. Still a powerful storm, to be certain.

Now, the bad news: Nangka’s track has shifted west-northwest and is now projected to pass 122 miles northeast of Saipan about midday Thursday. Close enough that Guam’s National Weather Service has issued a tropical storm warning for Saipan and Tinian, which both also remain under typhoon watch. A typhoon warning remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan and the Alamagan islands in the northern Marianas.

The good news for Iwo Jima: As Nangka passes north of the 20th parallel, it’s forecast to start diminishing, and should be packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it comes within 200 miles south of the island about 3 p.m. Monday.

New video of that Framersheim-downburst yesterday a little south of me (see post #267) has emerged, and I really cannot hide this from your attention. Quite like an eyewall experience, at least for some seconds, or not?

Quoting 409. cytochromeC:



74,000 years ago we went down to possibly 2000 homo sapiens, as we know from the bottleneck in the mtDNA.
So, we just about went extinct in the past.

That's what some say. If the Toba Catastrophe Theory is correct, it shows that mankind has no special rights to this revolving rock; we vary from the millions of species that have gone extinct before us only in the amount of luck we've found from time to time.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 289. tampabaymatt:



The graphic you posted shows a bullseye of PWAT around NE FL, yet you mention that weather in the Tampa Bay area is going to get interesting next week. From what I can tell in looking at the models, rainfall chances in Tampa into next week are going to increase, but doesn't appear to be anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. The GFS shows some high rain totals for the nature coast, but this is well north of Tampa proper. Can you help me understand how you expect this back door cold front to impact Tampa beyond the usual high rain chances for July?
Simple the front doesn't come through, it stalls most likely over north FL. and ahead of the front is where the moisture pools in, in fact the GFS model has been consistently showing a meso high diving down south along a trough of low pressure that develops off the East Coast. Also, the flow is going to be more onshore and the weakness created by the trough will allow moisture to be drawn up from the Western Caribbean as a tropical wave approaches by the middle of next week.