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Germany Breaks its All-Time Heat Record

By: Jeff Masters 4:24 AM GMT on July 06, 2015

Germany broke its all-time heat record on Sunday July 5, when the mercury soared to 104.5°F (40.3°C) at the official Kitzingen station in Bavaria. According to the German weather service's Facebook page, the record is now confirmed as official. The previous official national heat record recognized by the German meteorological agency (DWD) was 104.4°F (40.2°C), set in July 1983 and matched in August 2003. Numerous cities in Germany set all-time heat records over the weekend, including Saturday's 100.2°F (37.9°C ) reading at Berlin's Dahlem station, which has a very long period of record going back to 1876. Frankfurt beat its all-time heat record on Sunday--both at the airport (38.8°C) and downtown (39.0°C). Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera and Klimahaus' Michael Theusner for these stats. According to an analysis of DWD observing station data done by Dr. Theusner, 131 of 492 stations in Germany set an all-time heat record during the July 2 - 5 heat wave, and another 7 tied their previous record.


Figure 1. A young boy jumps from a 7.5 meter platform at a crowded outdoor pool during a record heat wave in Frankfurt, Germany, Friday, July 3, 2015. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

More near-record heat on the way
Germany has joined four other nations that have set all-time July national heat records this month: the Netherlands, the U.K., Thailand, and Colombia. Intense heat will continue over portions of Europe the next three days, with more national July heat records at risk. The fiercest heat will be over Poland on Monday, over Germany, Switzerland, and Austria on Tuesday, then shift to Southeast Europe on Wednesday. High temperatures close to the highest values ever measured can be expected in all these locations. For reference:

Poland's all-time hottest temperature is 104.4°F (40.2°C), measured on July 29, 1921 at Proszkow.

Switzerland's all-time hottest temperature is 106.7°F (41.5°C), measured on August 11, 2003 at Grono.

Austria's all-time hottest temperature is 104.9°F (40.5°C), measured on August 8, 2013 at Bad Deutsch-Altenburg.

Liechtenstein's all-time hottest temperature is 99.3°F (37.4°C), measured on August 13, 2003 at Ruggel.

Andorra's all-time hottest temperature is 101.3°F (38.5°C), measured on July 16, 2005 at Andorra La Vella.

Climate Change Playing a Significant Role in 2015 European Heat Wave
According to a press release by Climate Central, an international team of scientists from Oxford University, KNMI, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, along with regional partners from CNRS and MeteoSwiss says it is virtually certain that climate change increased the likelihood of the ongoing heat wave stretching across much of Europe. The risk increased by a factor of two or more over a large part of Europe, and up to more than a factor of four in some of the hottest cities. For example, the 3-day heat wave over the past three days in Mannheim, Germany would have been a 1-in-100 year event around the year 1900. It is now likely to happen roughly 1 in 15 years, thanks to climate change. The results are a part of the developing field of “weather attribution” that uses observational weather and climate data, weather forecasts and climate models.

Jeff Masters

Heat Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr Masters..is someone awake watching this...
CREDIT:: NOAA, COD
IMAGERY:: Though it reads IR, it includes 3 SAT types blended+visX filtered therefore not a purely COD product
D&T:: on aniGIF
SUBJECT:: i would sound the Grothar alka seltzer+geritol alert but at 2AM lets wait till 7AM EDT...alka selzter+Geritol alert??? its the sound of effervescence with a slight passing of ...you guessed it
image host
From the previous blog:

Quoting 676. Astrometeor:



Bill would've been a good practice run.

Non-event....pfft, Bill was a TD all the way through Kentucky.


Yeah but what happens if I had gone and we turned around and got a good hurricane during August/September? It takes a lot of money to go to the coast for two to three days.
From the previous blog:
Quoting 677. sar2401:

Just go to the Nexrad radar and chose "Total Precipitation" on the bottom of the radar image. It looks like this for Orlando -



The color gradations, once it gets into the red, are almost impossible for my color blind eyes to distinguish. I think Scott lives in or near Apopka. It's at the top of the image. There's a small area of red there but I can't tell if it's for 3.0 to 4.0 inches or the reds up to 5.0 to 6.0 inches. I think it's 4.0 to 5.0, the next one up from orange but you'll have to decide. Whatever it is, it's a very small area, along with another area just to the SW of Apopka. Otherwise, the majority of the Orlando area got less than half an inch, some got nothing, while others got into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range. It does show that reality at Scott's house doesn't have anything to do with reality in the rest of the area.

My eyesight is still very good, and I have excellent color vision (perfect score on the Ishihara color perception test).

I don't see any red squares; just the deepest orange, which is listed as 3.0-4.0 inches.

That said, I choose not to venture an opinion on whether or not STS got the 6 inches he claims.
Quoting 2. KoritheMan:

From the previous blog:



Yeah but what happens if I had gone and we turned around and got a good hurricane during August/September? It takes a lot of money to go to the coast for two to three days.


Point taken given your finances.
FWIW, yours truly isn't certain which is more scary: 40°C... or jumping head-first off a 7.5m platform. ;)
Yikes on the heat in Germany...

And are we still arguing over 6" and STS?
Quoting 6. Dakster:

And are we still arguing over 6" and STS?

Not any more. All of the folks with a dog in that fight have gone to bed, seems.
Quoting 1. vis0:

Thank you Dr Masters..is someone awake watching this...
CREDIT:: NOAA, COD
IMAGERY:: Though it reads IR, it includes 3 SAT types blended+visX filtered therefore not a purely COD product
D&T:: on aniGIF
SUBJECT:: i would sound the Grothar alka seltzer+geritol alert but at 2AM lets wait till 7AM EDT...alka selzter+Geritol alert??? its the sound of effervescence with a slight passing of ...you guessed it
image host
Those are just convective leftovers. The east coast front is too weak to have a tail end low develop. Dry air is going to eat the one over the Gulf for lunch. I don't see any kind of threat there.

I don't have a dog in that fight... And glad I wasn't the only one that was cringing at the thought of jumping off a 7.5 meter board. I jumped off a 15 Foot board once.... and that was enough to tell me I didn't want to do that again.
Quoting 7. EstherD:


Not any more. All of the folks with a dog in that fight have gone to bed, seems.

Not me. :-) My eyes see deep orange as well but they are fooled by the area of lighter orange next to it. I'd certainly go with what your eyes see since mine are known to be defective. My real point was, regardless if anyone got six inches, six inches would be a real outlier compared to the rest of Orlando.
Quoting 5. EstherD:

FWIW, yours truly isn't certain which is more scary: 40°C... or jumping head-first off a 7.5m platform. ;)

You're not kidding. That's a little less than 25 feet. About 35% of falls from 25 feet are fatal. Nope, doesn't look like fun to me.
Sar - Trivia Question. How fast do you hit the water if you jump from 25'?

If my math doesn't fail me and it sure might... I get 27.13 MPH.

Copied from the last comment section:

W00t! Some seriously nifty outflow winds goin' right now. Nothing on radar, no warnings, if we're getting those here then those storms to the north must have been doozies. Sure got a pretty lightshow. Feels like pushing up to 50 mph top speed (some of the outlying cells were expected to pop like that.) Exciting, like a small town carny roller coaster I _almost_ trust.
Quoting 13. Dakster:

If my math doesn't fail me and it sure might... I get 27.13 MPH.




Ouch that kid's gonna have a red belly. I grit my teeth just climbing onto our roof.
Quoting 13. Dakster:

If my math doesn't fail me and it sure might... I get 27.13 MPH.



Assuming my elementary physics hasn't vanished along with a lot of other things I learned 40 years ago, I concur:

v = a * t and d = 1/2 * a * t^2
solving for v by substituting t = v / a gives
v^2 = 2 * a * d or v = sqrt(2 * a * d)
a = 9.8 m/s/s (gravity) and d = 7.5 m
therefore v ~ 12 m/s ~ 36 ft/s ~ 27 mi/hr
Now the more interesting question remains... Am I gonna get in trouble for answering a question directed to SAR, the way SAR got into trouble last night answering a question directed to Grothar? ;)
Quoting 8. sar2401:

Those are just convective leftovers. The east coast front is too weak to have a tail end low develop. Dry air is going to eat the one over the Gulf for lunch. I don't see any kind of threat there.



What dry air?
Quoting 17. EstherD:

Now the more interesting question remains... Am I gonna get in trouble for answering a question directed to SAR, the way SAR got into trouble last night answering a question directed to Grothar? ;)


Pretty certain SAR won't mind... And I don't mind when SAR answers other posts. I do it to at times. If you want something answered or responded to by ONLY one other person, it's called WUMAIL...

Glad my math hasn't failed me. Thanks for double checking it.
I am petrified of jumping into the deep end of a pool at water level, forget a diving board.
Greater Vancouver area and parts of Vancouver island covered in smoke because of forest fires in BC.
It may be a long summer.

Quoting 18. opal92nwf:


What dry air?
See that clear slot over Alabama down into the Panhandle? It's mid level dry air, and it's what destroyed the convection earlier today. It will do the same in the Gulf.
Quoting 17. EstherD:

Now the more interesting question remains... Am I gonna get in trouble for answering a question directed to SAR, the way SAR got into trouble last night answering a question directed to Grothar? ;)
Oooohhh...you're in big trouble. I wanted to do all that math, just so I could show Dak...well, he was right.

Can you imagine how long questions would wait to be answered if only the person mentioned was allowed to answer it? Just silly.

And people sometimes tell me I'm a grumpy old man. :-)
Quoting 19. Dakster:



Pretty certain SAR won't mind... And I don't mind when SAR answers other posts. I do it to at times. If you want something answered or responded to by ONLY one other person, it's called WUMAIL...

Glad my math hasn't failed me. Thanks for double checking it.
I'm impressed, Dak. Very few cops could have done that right, including me :-)
Quoting 20. Astrometeor:

I am petrified of jumping into the deep end of a pool at water level, forget a diving board.


At the University of Miami when I jumped off a 15' or so board you land in the deep end. I didn't expect to shoot all the way down to the bottom - which is 16'. I forgot to raise my hands to slow my decent. I can't imagine what the 10 Meter dive is like.
Quoting 14. nonblanche:

Copied from the last comment section:

W00t! Some seriously nifty outflow winds goin' right now. Nothing on radar, no warnings, if we're getting those here then those storms to the north must have been doozies. Sure got a pretty lightshow. Feels like pushing up to 50 mph top speed (some of the outlying cells were expected to pop like that.) Exciting, like a small town carny roller coaster I _almost_ trust.

I told you you'd get some nice outflow winds. It may be the topography of the basin and range province, but winds can really get funneled down those valleys and create some really strong winds, the Washoe Zephyr being one example. There's another one that comes off Pyramid Lake with a Native American name I can't remember. If you're not getting a dust storm with the winds, it's a sign the rains have done a good job wetting things down for once.
Quoting 24. sar2401:

I'm impressed, Dak. Very few cops could have done that right, including me :-)

And quick, too! I was still typing up the method when I noticed he'd already posted the answer. But then I'm a very slow typist. And I wasted a fair amount of time hunting around for a calculator that would do square roots, because the one I normally use doesn't think anyone would ever need to do that. ;)
Quoting 27. EstherD:


And quick, too! I was still typing up the method when I noticed he'd already posted the answer. But then I'm a very slow typist. And I wasted a fair amount of time hunting around for a calculator that would do square roots, because the one I normally use doesn't think anyone would ever need to do that. ;)


Luckily my iPhone calculator will do square roots... IF you turn it to the side.

SAR - Ever measured skid marks and done the minimum speed required to make the mark calculations. Those are fun to do.
Quoting 25. Dakster:



At the University of Miami when I jumped off a 15' or so board you land in the deep end. I didn't expect to shoot all the way down to the bottom - which IIRC is 20'. I forgot to raise my hands to slow my decent. I can't imagine what the 10 Meter dive is like.
I was forced to jump off a 20 foot deck into a college pool as part of my rescue swimmer course. In theory, when I was the paramedic on the helicopter, that's the highest I'd have to jump from the helicopter to get to a person in the water and get us both hooked up to the line. Yeah, right. I had to be in a survival suit wearing all my gear, and it was 95 degrees out. I almost died just getting up the steps to the platform. I got to the edge, looked over, and was just about to turn around and quit when my instructor gave me a little shove. Over I went. I have no memory from that moment until I was dragging the dummy (the practice dummy, not me) over to the edge of the pool and getting pricked up by four guys and lifted out. I had apparently done everything right, and the guys were congratulating me on the job. Right there I decided that, if they couldn't longline me down, there was no way I was jumping again.
Not so sure I would like the 20' dive either, I wasn't real happy afterwards with the lower dive I did. I also wouldn't be able to jump out of a plane to go sky diving either. I just don't like the way falling feels. Not even sure I could jump out of a plane on fire and going to crash that had parachutes in it either. I'd probably go down with the plane unless someone knocked me out, suited me up, and threw me out.

I'm not scare of heights, just falling and that sudden stop at the end of the fall. Any anyone that thinks water is a soft landing, hasn't jumped into it from any discernible height.
Quoting 28. Dakster:



Luckily my iPhone calculator will do square roots... IF you turn it to the side.

SAR - Ever measured skid marks and done the minimum speed required to make the mark calculations. Those are fun to do.
Yes, I did, although I always tried to talk the AI guys into that. The CHP has a handy little pocket book I purloined from them. It has hundreds of different calculations and tables they use for AI. One of them was for minimum and maximum speed for skid marks, even unequal marks from two tires. Also had road surface and weather condition doohickies you'd add or subtract from the skid mark length. I understand it's all done by apps on a phone now, but that book saved me a lot of calculator time. I really hated the wheel. No matter what I did, it was like a shopping cart that wouldn't go straight.
Quoting 30. Dakster:

Not so sure I would like the 20' dive either, I wasn't real happy afterwards with the lower dive I did. I also wouldn't be able to jump out of a plane to go sky diving either. I just don't like the way falling feels. Not even sure I could jump out of a plane on fire and going to crash that had parachutes in it either. I'd probably go down with the plane unless someone knocked me out, suited me up, and threw me out.

I'm not scare of heights, just falling and that sudden stop at the end of the fall. Any anyone that thinks water is a soft landing, hasn't jumped into it from any discernible height.
My brother has made about 50 dives now. He loves it. He keeps trying to get me to jump. I went up in the plane with him once and that was enough for me. He says there's no sensation of falling until you can actually see the ground coming up at you. Well, yeah, that's the part I really wouldn't like. He's a pilot too. He flies ultralights, used to race stock cars, paid about $500 to drive a NASCAR racer 200 mph at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and likes bungee jumping. Amazingly, the most serious injury he ever had was when he fell off the roof putting up Christmas lights. and, even then, it was a couple of fractured ribs that took him 3 days to go to the ER because the pain wasn't that bad. I suspect he has a suicide streak in him. :-)
Quoting 31. sar2401:

Yes, I did, although I always tried to talk the AI guys into that. The CHP has a handy little pocket book I purloined from them. It has hundreds of different calculations and tables they use for AI. One of them was for minimum and maximum speed for skid marks, even unequal marks from two tires. Also had road surface and weather condition doohickies you'd add or subtract from the skid mark length. I understand it's all done by apps on a phone now, but that book saved me a lot of calculator time. I really hated the wheel. No matter what I did, it was like a shopping cart that wouldn't go straight.


I didn't have an APP back then for it either...

Heck, when I was doing accident investigations, iDevices were not invented yet. I was one of the few people that typed accident reports and used a graphics program for the diagrams. Mine were to scale, even though we always wrote on the report "Not to Scale", but it was easier to do the report to scale. I was running Win 95 back then too. And it didn't take long to have most of the intersections in my zone in a "template" so all had to do was drag and drop the cars in.

Those cheat sheets sure were handy.

--

Anyways, hot and humid in your neck of the woods? It was SCORCHING here with a high of 78F at the house. The 12% humidity made it not so bad though.
A lot of super high rainfall events are the result of having forgotten to empty the gauge before the storm. =p
Quoting 32. sar2401:

He says there's no sensation of falling until you can actually see the ground coming up at you.

Now you guys are getting into my area of expertise.

Maybe there's no sensation of falling for your brother. But that doesn't mean that there's no sensation of falling for everyone. Depends on how your vestibular (balance) system is wired into your brain. And early childhood experience, to a lesser extent.

And it's genetic, too. My sister took after my father; both of them just loved all kinds of jumping, falling and spinning rides. I took after my mother; we both hated them.

So you and your brother could have very different responses to the same conditions.

The fact that you say you blacked out on the test "jump" indicates you're likely one of us whose vestibular system just wasn't designed for that kind of action. I know you were also a sailor, but if you told me you also had occasional problems with sea sickness, I wouldn't be at all surprised, since that seems to be related to a hyper-vigilant vestibular system as well.
Quoting 21. JSparrow:

Greater Vancouver area and parts of Vancouver island covered in smoke because of forest fires in BC.
It may be a long summer.



I looked into these fire statistics a bit yesterday and its seems that they are on course for a record fire season in BC.
Sar said it was normal to have 3.5 million acres burnt a year but I think that this is an anomaly and its going to set a precedent for future years.
The whole west coast from the lower parts of California to Alaska is coming under fire threats.
The BC forests are normally drenched in rain quite often but now all that undergrowth is getting dangerously tinder dry.

Here's a link to some photos and comments from the Vancouver area.

Link
37. vis0
Quoting 3. EstherD:

From the previous blog:

My eyesight is still very good, and I have excellent color vision (perfect score on the Ishihara color perception test).

I don't see any red squares; just the deepest orange, which is listed as 3.0-4.0 inches.

That said, I choose not to venture an opinion on whether or not STS got the 6 inches he claims.
i looked at the radar accumulation sites that had the highest HD one was pay i ain't going to pay to see if someone took measurements from an official the rain "bucket" or pool. So that site is OOTQ.
(this is TRUE PNG colour keeps accurate colours without having to upload some 12,000KB file)

The next was accuweather and when i used my colourpicking tool (much better than ones eyes) it shows orange and darkening orange. On the AccuWx key that means higher than 5.0 but lower than 6.0. The arrow under the colour key shows where my coloupicker in being set to take 3 hue points and average it out, so it came to a conclusion of ~5.68.

Oh and by zooming in i can tell STS ties his tree limbs so they act like a funnel towards the rain bucket...just kidding ;- P or am i???

Whats that hole in Bama? its where sar2401 lives. (if the image does not show, i'll post it again a few comments later)
Quoting 12. Dakster:

Sar - Trivia Question. How fast do you hit the water if you jump from 25'?




Looks like everyone got this wrong

He asked how fast do you hit the water NOT how fast are you going when you hit the water ..... like in milliseconds not mph
The new national record all-time warmest overnight minimum temperature anywhere in Belgium of 24.5 C / 76.1 F was reportedly set at Ukkel on the night of July 3-4, 2015.

Link
Good evening! Any thoughts on Tropical Storm Chan-hom? As I am working in Shanghai, I am concerned about any impacts. My Internet is very slow here, so I'm having trouble doing my own research.
Quoting 41. Gearsts:



Clever eye formation of T Nangka.
Loving the european heatwave .....

LATEST IRISH WEATHER REPORTS
ON 6-JUL-2015 for 10:00


Sigh maybe someday !


00z GFS

Quoting 40. galvestonhurricane:

Good evening! Any thoughts on Tropical Storm Chan-hom? As I am working in Shanghai, I am concerned about any impacts. My Internet is very slow here, so I'm having trouble doing my own research.
Anyone can tell you the dangerousness of this one is virtually of the scale (and Shanghai can still get a direct hit), doc. Masters will 100 % make an update about Chan-hom once he will have a better idea where exactly is it heading, so hang in there.
Quoting 38. Longjohn119:



Looks like everyone got this wrong

He asked how fast do you hit the water NOT how fast are you going when you hit the water ..... like in milliseconds not mph


You know, you are right. Even though I meant it, in MPH...
Quoting 27. EstherD:


...I wasted a fair amount of time hunting around for a calculator that would do square roots, because the one I normally use doesn't think anyone would ever need to do that. ;)
FYI, Google's search bar lets you do just about any type of math known to man. For square roots, just use the sqrt function. As in:

sqrt(25) = 5

The search bar calculator handles parenthesized calcs, advanced math, and physical constants. Pretty handy tool for quick work--and it's easy to copy-and-past the answers without error...
Quoting 40. galvestonhurricane:

Good evening! Any thoughts on Tropical Storm Chan-hom? As I am working in Shanghai, I am concerned about any impacts. My Internet is very slow here, so I'm having trouble doing my own research.



Quoting 36. PlazaRed:


I looked into these fire statistics a bit yesterday and its seems that they are on course for a record fire season in BC.
Sar said it was normal to have 3.5 million acres burnt a year but I think that this is an anomaly and its going to set a precedent for future years.
The whole west coast from the lower parts of California to Alaska is coming under fire threats.
The BC forests are normally drenched in rain quite often but now all that undergrowth is getting dangerously tinder dry.

Here's a link to some photos and comments from the Vancouver area.

Link
Food for, er, thought: in an average calendar year, 814,235 hectares (about 3145 square miles) of Canada will have burned by July 1. That number this year: 1,422,952 hectares (5,495 square miles. That's around 175% of average. Or to put it another way, the annual average Canadian fire acreage has already been exceeded--and there are still six months left in the year.
Quoting 34. Forsaken:

A lot of super high rainfall events are the result of having forgotten to empty the gauge before the storm. =p


Tipping bucket rain gauges take care of that. They are also pretty accurate.
Quoting 12. Dakster:

Trivia Question. How fast do you hit the water if you jump from 25'?


Your wording is a bit ambiguous, so can be answered in two ways:

1) You'll reach the water in about 1.25 seconds.

2) As others have noted, you'll be moving (or, more precisely, accelerating through) about 27 mph when you hit the water.
Thanks for the entry about our new national heat record, doc. At least our sweating in Germany last weekend wasn't in vain ;-)

Quoting 21. JSparrow:


It may be a long summer.


It sure feels that way here in Central Oregon. We've already had a half dozen significant fires in the region, and we're just getting into the heart of the wildfire season. We expect a couple of afternoon/evenings of dry lightning, starting today. Fingers crossed.
Quoting 37. vis0:


i looked at the radar accumulation sites that had the highest HD one was pay i ain't going to pay to see if someone took measurements from an official the rain "bucket" or pool. So that site is OOTQ.
(this is TRUE PNG colour keeps accurate colours without having to upload some 12,000KB file)

The next was accuweather and when i used my colourpicking tool (much better than ones eyes) it shows orange and darkening orange. On the AccuWx key that means higher than 5.0 nut lower than 6.0. The arrow sows where my coloupicker was set to take 3 hue points an average it out, so it came to a conclusion of ~5.68.

Oh and by zooming in i can tell STS ties his tree limbs so they act like a funnel towards the rain bucket...just kidding or am i???

Whats that hole in Bama? its where sar2401 lives. (if the image does not show, i'll post it again a few comments later)



That map gives a good general estimation of precipitation totals. My house in Winter Park actually ended up with a little less than 1.5" and the Executive airport got around 1 1/3". Both of these locations are depicted in the 2-3" color shading. So the map must be general in its depictions of rainfall totals or it cannot be viewed at a higher resolution or something.


06z GFS
Dual cat 5 cyclones.
Good Morning. Storms a plenty in the Pacific Basin at the moment thanks to low shear (El Nino), high ssts, and the current MJO location:

And the E-Pac; a current cluster of West-Pac storms due to the MJO and a probable cluster coming up in the E-Pac in the near future as the MJO propagates eastward towards Mexico and Central America over the next 15-30 days:

For the record on the news last night there was numerous reports of rain totals in the same range from Apopka extending to Rock Springs and the Wekiva area. Lots of 5" to 6" rainfall reports. The reason is we had storms fire up from the Wekiva area up to just west of Sanford around 3pm. Then the storms just keep building in the same areas. Ended up with nearly 0.60" from those storms then an outflow boundary was pushed out from those storms and collided with the west coast breeze around 5pm then a massive storm erupted and we ended up with over 5.50" from that storm which sat over Apopka area for hours.

Storm total of 6.33"
here are this weeks # that the CPC will uesd in there updated


Nino1+2 2.7

Nino 3 2.0

Nino 3.4 1.4 wish seems too be holding the past few updates

Nino 4 1.0

from here


Link

Quoting 38. Longjohn119:



Looks like everyone got this wrong

He asked how fast do you hit the water NOT how fast are you going when you hit the water ..... like in milliseconds not mph
The time it takes to fall "K" (height) is always given by the square root of K / 4 sec.

In the instance of the the 25' drop Dakster proposed:

K would be 25.

The square root of 25 is 5.

Thus, 5/4 sec. or 1.25 seconds would be the duration of flight.

Or at least that's what I interpret from what I'm reading here.
Very impressive:


Quoting 48. Neapolitan:

FYI, Google's search bar lets you do just about any type of math known to man. For square roots, just use the sqrt function. As in:

sqrt(25) = 5

The search bar calculator handles parenthesized calcs, advanced math, and physical constants. Pretty handy tool for quick work--and it's easy to copy-and-past the answers without error...
Thanks for pointing out another nifty Google function. :)
Quoting 60. weathermanwannabe:

And the E-Pac; a current cluster of West-Pac storms due to the MJO and a probable cluster coming up in the E-Pac in the near future as the MJO propagates eastward towards Mexico and Central America over the next 15-30 days:


MJO is already over the C and epac.
Quoting 67. Gearsts:

MJO is already over the C and epac.


I was looking at this chart showing the anomalies in the E-PAC in about 15 days; I could be misreading the chart:

Ahh, brings back memories.
I remember one hot summer day there, back in the 1990s over in the Kitzingen Hallenbad, they used to have a 10meter platform, I remember jumping off of it, and landing feet first. it hurt... alot....
did it once, never planning on doing it again.

My memories also of that town was that no one had air conditioning, truly hot summer days really weren't all that common.
Quoting 68. weathermanwannabe:



I was looking at this chart showing the anomalies in the E-PAC in about 15 days; I could be misreading the chart:


Starts at July 5
Quoting 61. StormTrackerScott:

For the record on the news last night there was numerous reports of rain totals in the same range from Apopka extending to Rock Springs and the Wekiva area. Lots of 5" to 6" rainfall reports. The reason is we had storms fire up from the Wekiva area up to just west of Sanford around 3pm. Then the storms just keep building in the same areas. Ended up with nearly 0.60" from those storms then an outflow boundary was pushed out from those storms and collided with the west coast breeze around 5pm then a massive storm erupted and we ended up with over 5.50" from that storm which sat over Apopka area for hours.

Storm total of 6.33"

As someone a bit west of Sanford, I can vouch for the large rain amount -though not necessarily any particular number since I don't have a rain gauge. It rained as hard as or harder I've ever seen rain in the 5+ decades I can more or less remember. I could barely see our trees that are about 50' from the house. And it kept raining that hard for somewhere around 30 or 40 minutes. Six inches of rain wouldn't surprise me at all. The lightning was abundant, including one bolt that hit very near the house. (I'll look around later today to see if I can find exactly where it hit.) That one scared the cats into hiding for around three hours.
Quoting 68. weathermanwannabe:



I was looking at this chart showing the anomalies in the E-PAC in about 15 days; I could be misreading the chart:




Yikes!
CDO looking good and a possible eye could develop later today. There still seems to be some shear from the north but is improving.
Quoting 71. Misanthroptimist:


As someone a bit west of Sanford, I can vouch for the large rain amount -though not necessarily any particular number since I don't have a rain gauge. It rained as hard as or harder I've ever seen rain in the 5+ decades I can more or less remember. I could barely see our trees that are about 50' from the house. And it kept raining that hard for somewhere around 30 or 40 minutes. Six inches of rain wouldn't surprise me at all. The lightning was abundant, including one bolt that hit very near the house. (I'll look around later today to see if I can find exactly where it hit.) That one scared the cats into hiding for around three hours.


Yeah storms just sat across our area then finally began to move SE into Orlando but not before unloading lots and lots of rain across many areas for hours. Even the orange/ light red colors on radar had rains so hard you couldn't see anything outside.
Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:



Yikes!
Our friend from the Caymans still doesn't buy it ;)

Quoting 50. Neapolitan:

Food for, er, thought: in an average calendar year, 814,235 hectares (about 3145 square miles) of Canada will have burned by July 1. That number this year: 1,422,952 hectares (5,495 square miles. That's around 175% of average. Or to put it another way, the annual average Canadian fire acreage has already been exceeded--and there are still six months left in the year.
Thanks for the stats.

Is this the source you are citing?
A reversal of Tradewinds (Raw Westerlies) now spreading toward Nino 3. With this strong of WWB expect SST's to warm quickly the next few weeks.

Quoting 75. Gearsts:

Our friend from the Caymans still doesn't buy it ;)


Wait till he see's the sharp sea surface rise across Nino 3.4 starting anytime now as this strong of WWB is going to cause Nino 3.4 to approach the 2C mark in a few weeks. So the models showing a greater than 2C ENSO seem to be preforming well this year and have a good handle on these WWB coming across.
Laos 38.5C at Savannakeht is very likely a new national record for the month of July too.
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:

here are this weeks # that the CPC will uesd in there updated


Nino1+2 2.7

Nino 3 2.0

Nino 3.4 1.4 wish seems too be holding the past few updates

Nino 4 1.0

from here


Link


Thanks Taz!
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

A reversal of Tradewinds (Raw Westerlies) now spreading toward Nino 3. With this strong of WWB expect SST's to warm quickly the next few weeks.





the CPC has nino 3 at 2.0 in there update this week please see post 62
Quoting 81. StormTrackerScott:



Thanks Taz!



welcome
Quoting 82. Tazmanian:




the CPC has nino 3 at 2.0 in there update this week please see post 62


We should see values go much higher going thru July and also the NMME updates today so that should be interesting. Also we're not that far behind 1997 so we should catch up across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 over the next few weeks. One should remember this El-Nino is going to be centered more across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 and not E-Pac like 1997 so although we won't hit 1997 values across Nino 1&2 it appears we will surpass 1997 levels across the C-Pac. No 2 El-Nino's are the same. Question though which we will have to see how it plays out is what are the implications across the US this Winter with a C-Pac centered ENSO with its highest values. A deep Midwest trough? If that's the case then the Mid Atlantic could be in for another rough Winter also the Southern US too.

Quoting 32. sar2401:

My brother has made about 50 dives now. He loves it. He keeps trying to get me to jump. I went up in the plane with him once and that was enough for me. He says there's no sensation of falling until you can actually see the ground coming up at you. Well, yeah, that's the part I really wouldn't like. He's a pilot too. He flies ultralights, used to race stock cars, paid about $500 to drive a NASCAR racer 200 mph at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and likes bungee jumping. Amazingly, the most serious injury he ever had was when he fell off the roof putting up Christmas lights. and, even then, it was a couple of fractured ribs that took him 3 days to go to the ER because the pain wasn't that bad. I suspect he has a suicide streak in him. :-)


My big brother used to be like that. In his teens (until he discovered girls) his personal hero was Evel Knievel, his hobby was modding bicycles for all his friends, and all his friends' moms hated him 'cause they all came home with broken bits and puncture wounds and he'd whine to Mom "but I did it too and nothing happened to ME!" He could jump more trashcans on his bike than anyone else in the neighborhood.

We're both in our 50's now, and he just doesn't get why I want a life full of challenges. I was the timid kid, but I don't see him doing any of the crazy [naughty word] I do on a daily basis these days. :)
jb said this aug-sept could be very dangerous for a conus landfaller or two
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 18m18 minutes ago
#ElNino continues to strengthen, setting modern records in the C Pacific, w/only 1997 warmer near S America #climate
Quoting 86. islander101010:

jb said this aug-sept could be very dangerous for a conus landfaller or two


Reason for this is Development close to home likely meaning recurves will be less possible.

Source: DWD facebook site. New national heat record in Germany has passed the check of national weather service DWD and is now valid for history books.



BTW, Kitzingen is a nice little town on Main River: "Surrounded by vineyards, Kitzingen County is the largest wine producer in Bavaria. ... The city's main landmark is the Leaning Tower, built during the 13th century. It is distinctive for its crooked roof. According to town legend, the tower was being built during a drought, and workers used wine instead of water to make the mortar causing the top of the tower to lean." (Wiki).
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



Reason for this is Development close to home likely meaning recurves will be less possible.
There won't be much to recurve anyway.
Quoting 86. islander101010:

jb said this aug-sept could be very dangerous for a conus landfaller or two
So JB has stated that there's potential for the two busiest months of the hurricane season to see a landfalling storm somewhere along the 3,600-plus miles of America's Gulf and Atlantic coasts? Wow. Dude's really going out on a limb... :)
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:



We should see values go much higher going thru July and also the NMME updates today so that should be interesting. Also we're not that far behind 1997 so we should catch up across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 over the next few weeks. One should remember this El-Nino is going to be centered more across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 and not E-Pac like 1997 so although we won't hit 1997 values across Nino 1&2 it appears we will surpass 1997 levels across the C-Pac. No 2 El-Nino's are the same. Question though which we will have to see how it plays out is what are the implications across the US this Winter with a C-Pac centered ENSO with its highest values. A deep Midwest trough? If that's the case then the Mid Atlantic could be in for another rough Winter also the Southern US too.





What. Dos this mean for ca ?
good luck s floridians these next few months are very dangerous for you
Quoting 91. Neapolitan:

So JB has stated that there's potential for the two busiest months of the hurricane season to see a landfalling storm somewhere along the 3,600-plus miles of America's Gulf and Atlantic coasts? Wow. Dude's really going out on a limb... :)


Actually no he is not I haven't seen his blog today but if that is what he said He is probably basing it on the idea of In Close Development. So if this is what he said he may not be that far off. I suspect the US gets hit this year despite a Strong El-Nino with low number of storms.
Quoting 91. Neapolitan:

So JB has stated that there's potential for the two busiest months of the hurricane season to see a landfalling storm somewhere along the 3,600-plus miles of America's Gulf and Atlantic coasts? Wow. Dude's really going out on a limb... :)
coin toss
Quoting 91. Neapolitan:

So JB has stated that there's potential for the two busiest months of the hurricane season to see a landfalling storm somewhere along the 3,600-plus miles of America's Gulf and Atlantic coasts? Wow. Dude's really going out on a limb... :)
Reminds me a little of NOAA's Hurricane season prediction in 2011, when 12 to 18 storms were predicted....I could use the same margin of error to predict many events with substantial accuracy.
Quoting 93. islander101010:

good luck s floridians these next few months are very dangerous for you

Why?
Thanks for the update Doc. Unfortunately, looks like no relief from the global heat wave next 1000+ years. Reminds me of those highway signs reading "buckle up next million miles."
Quoting 95. Gearsts:

coin toss
Good morning Gearsts..It is only my opinion, but I believe there is a higher than normal risk for a U.S. hurricane hit. Mainly due to the pattern that has been prevalent with only brief changes for some time now. Gulf of Mexico and extreme Western Caribbean should be more favorable during the peak of the season, with the near by Atlantic waters also being a favorable area.
Quoting 98. Gearsts:




Water Temps immediately west-southwest of SW California are running in 22C - 23C range over a large area. If we get these numbers closer to the 24C to 26C range, there may be a small window where things could become interesting down the road for San Diego. It would only take one East Pacific storm curving up towards west of the Northern Baja of California and a moderate Tropical or Extra Tropical system wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to say the least. Anomalies for the season are in the plus 3C range, after doubling just this past week alone.

Question is how much longer do we go before these temps start flirting closer and closer to that 26C threshold over these coming decades? My opinion but by 2050 San Diego may see the occasional tropical system as frequent as the Hawaii Islands do currently...

Current SST


Past Week Anomaly Change


Seasonal Anomalies
Quoting 86. islander101010:

jb said this aug-sept could be very dangerous for a conus landfaller or two
So JB has stated that there's potential for the two busiest months of the hurricane season to see a landfalling storm somewhere along the 3,600-plus miles of America's Gulf and Atlantic coasts? Wow. Dude's really going out on a limb... :)


just hurricanes....not counting tropical storms......we average over once a year of conus landfalling....if we count td's......it doubles......and.......over two thirds of the time....they make landfall in the months of august and september......great job stating the obvious jb......and people pay for that crap.....

Quoting 92. Tazmanian:




What. Dos this mean for ca ?
While this doesn't directly answer your question, the graph here does indicate that El Nino years have a positive impact on streamflow in the Colorado River, though the amount of precipitation is extremely variable.


Quoting 95. Gearsts:

coin toss
Hi Gearsts, and what is your forecast? I will go with 2, maybe 3 storm hits on the US coast line, 1 hurricane hitting S. FL. or the Keys, another hurricane hitting around the Central to East Gulf, and a storm or hurricane hitting the coast from N. Carolina north.

Quoting 92. Tazmanian:




What. Dos this mean for ca ?
Good discussion here. LINK
107. JRRP
We have been very lucky in recent years as we know with Conus in term of major hurricanes. And we also know that any storm spinning up in the Gulf has a high chance of landfall along the Gulf Coast (it has nowhere else to go) unless ridging pushes it West towards Mexico. With that being said, we just have to wait until the peak period, or shortly thereafter, to see what is able to spin up closer to home from frontal remnants. The other scenario (obvious one) is a Cape Verde wave/storm trajectory into the Caribbean on the way towards the Gulf or East Coast; no way to know at this point whether either scenario will materialize this year.
109. vis0

Quoting 8. sar2401:

Those are just convective leftovers. The east coast front is too weak to have a tail end low develop. Dry air is going to eat the one over the Gulf for lunch. I don't see any kind of threat there.


hi SAR i AM the STORM you JUST commented 'BOUT, who ASKED you TO reply TO vis0.

LOOK what YOU did YOU even ANSWERED the VIS0 comment INCORRECTLY, i AM now BEING eaten FOR breakfast.

why THE typing STYLE?
Do you KNOW how HARD it IS to TYPE when YOUR life REVOLVES around AN updraft PLUS i'm USING islander's KEYBOARD islander10?, THREW away
Looking East towards Africa, there is plenty of wave activity this year so far but it remains to be seen how that will play out against SAL, marginal SST's, and shear levels in the Central Atlantic come the Atlantic Season peak period:



Quoting 86. islander101010:

jb said this aug-sept could be very dangerous for a conus landfaller or two


He says that every year. Eventually he'll be right.
Quoting 89. barbamz:


Source: DWD facebook site. New national heat record in Germany has passed the check of national weather service DWD and is now valid for history books.



BTW, Kitzingen is a nice little town on Main River: "Surrounded by vineyards, Kitzingen County is the largest wine producer in Bavaria. ... The city's main landmark is the Leaning Tower, built during the 13th century. It is distinctive for its crooked roof. According to town legend, the tower was being built during a drought, and workers used wine instead of water to make the mortar causing the top of the tower to lean." (Wiki).


Thanks, Barbara, I modified the post to reflect the official confirmation.

Dr. M.
Quoting 109. vis0:


hi SAR i AM the STORM you JUST commented 'BOUT, who ASKED you TO reply TO vis0.

LOOK what YOU did YOU even ANSWERED the VIS0 comment INCORRECTLY, i AM now BEING eaten FOR breakfast.

why THE typing STYLE?
Do you KNOW how HARD it IS to TYPE when YOUR life REVOLVES around AN updraft PLUS i'm USING islander's KEYBOARD islander10?, THREW away

Well, STORM, sometimes it's lunch and sometimes it's brunch. Go take a nap, do some pushups when you wake up, and get ready for a better day.Unfortunately for me, your nemesis, Mr. HIGH, is going to be paying me a visit again. My days of some rain and cooler weather will rapidly be coming to an end. I'm glad to see you were able to fix the spacebar on Islander's old keyboard but it looks like you messed up the SHIFT key in the process. :-)
Quoting 102. ILwthrfan:



Water Temps immediately west-southwest of SW California are running in 22C - 23C range over a large area. If we get these numbers closer to the 24C to 26C range, there may be a small window where things could become interesting down the road for San Diego. It would only take one East Pacific storm curving up towards west of the Northern Baja of California and a moderate Tropical or Extra Tropical system wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to say the least. Anomalies for the season are in the plus 3C range, after doubling just this past week alone.

Question is how much longer do we go before these temps start flirting closer and closer to that 26C threshold over these coming decades? My opinion but by 2050 San Diego may see the occasional tropical system as frequent as the Hawaii Islands do currently...

Current SST


Past Week Anomaly Change


Seasonal Anomalies




I'm not so sure, water is cold off the California coast due to ocean currents, it's going to be hard for the average temps to warm substantially off coast even with climate change. A much greater concern is a warming gulf and Caribbean due to climate change.
Quoting 97. Gearsts:

Why?
Sharks. Drive by shootings. And lightning.
Quoting 66. rayduray2013:


Thanks for pointing out another nifty Google function. :)

Google has been doing some good work on math and conversions. Try typing "C to F" and see what happens.
Quoting 114. Jedkins01:




I'm not so sure, water is cold off the California coast due to ocean currents, it's going to be hard for the average temps to warm substantially off coast even with climate change. A much greater concern is a warming gulf and Caribbean due to climate change.
Unless there's a sudden and profound collapse of the Japanese Current we're not going to be seeing 26 c temperatures off the California coast anytime soon. That's a huge current and, which I'm sure it's going to undergo changes over time, it's going to take a lot of heat for it to allow warm waters to flow north. The Gulf Stream, by comparison, is tiny, and that one will undergo changes a lot sooner than the Japanese Current.
Quoting 117. sar2401:

Unless there's a sudden and profound collapse of the Japanese Current we're not going to be seeing 26 c temperatures off the California coast anytime soon. That's a huge current and, which I'm sure it's going to undergo changes over time, it's going to take a lot of heat for it to allow warm waters to flow north. The Gulf Stream, by comparison, is tiny, and that one will undergo changes a lot sooner than the Japanese Current.


For the same reason the Bermuda High steers warm humid air and warm water to the Gulf and Caribbean, the Pacific High steers cooler water to the California coast. So, I agree with you that it would take a major atmospheric shift to change the steering of cooler water to the CA coast.
Quoting 102. ILwthrfan:



Water Temps immediately west-southwest of SW California are running in 22C - 23C range over a large area. If we get these numbers closer to the 24C to 26C range, there may be a small window where things could become interesting down the road for San Diego. It would only take one East Pacific storm curving up towards west of the Northern Baja of California and a moderate Tropical or Extra Tropical system wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities to say the least. Anomalies for the season are in the plus 3C range, after doubling just this past week alone.

Question is how much longer do we go before these temps start flirting closer and closer to that 26C threshold over these coming decades? My opinion but by 2050 San Diego may see the occasional tropical system as frequent as the Hawaii Islands do currently...

Current SST


Past Week Anomaly Change


Seasonal Anomalies



I seriously doubt that could happen. This year, water temps are ridiculously above average, and yet 21C is the highest that shows up in an isolated pocket along the coast. Doesn't rule out the possibility of an EPac storm making it up here as a TS/TD before completely falling apart though.

Quoting 38. Longjohn119:



Looks like everyone got this wrong

He asked how fast do you hit the water NOT how fast are you going when you hit the water ..... like in milliseconds not mph
Well, since SHE asked the question, and SHE did the same calculations as Dak, and they both came up with the same number, that SHE agreed was right, I don't think anyone got it wrong. You interpreted the question differently than it was asked.
Quoting 118. tampabaymatt:



For the same reason the Bermuda High steers warm humid air and warm water to the Gulf and Caribbean, the Pacific High steers cooler water to the California coast. So, I agree with you that it would take a major atmospheric shift to change the steering of cooler water to the CA coast.


So, what happened in September of 1939 and October of 1858?

Quoting 116. sar2401:

Google has been doing some good work on math and conversions. Try typing "C to F" and see what happens.
I learned that one a while back.

Another nifty Google feature is using it to search individual websites. Simple, really.

Example

site:nhc.noaa.gov Katrina

Result
As Nangka tries to refine its eye, Chan-hom is in the process of clearing one.


Quoting 121. Hazardousweather:



So, what happened in September of 1939 and October of 1858?


I don't know what you're referring to. Can you be more, or at least a little, specific?
Not directly related to the weather but I noticed the "shark" reference below.  Saw a show a few weeks ago as to research on shark attacks on the Pacific Mexican resort coast (South of the Baha Peninsula) and one researcher found a correlation between La Nina years (with the cold pool pushing closer to the coast bringing in the Great Whites) and increased shark activity-attacks in these regions.  Wondering if the researchers are looking (in light of recent attacks on the East Conus coast) at the correlations between enso cycles and shark attacks in the US in different regions.  Would be an interesting study to see if any patterns are noticed like in the case of Mexico.
Quoting 106. rayduray2013:


Good discussion here. LINK




Thanks but old blog
Jedkins01
Sar2401
TimSoCal



This map is illustrating my point. Those cold waters buffering San Diego from those warmer 22-24C SST will only grow smaller and smaller, thus systems will have less run time over those colder waters that would otherwise zap more energy from tropical systems.

The ending result is systems will have a greater chance advancing closer to and upon impact if the track of the system is just right.

It does not matter the size of the current that is impacting the California coast. That current will warm just like all the rest of the water on this planet. Though some areas will be magnified more than others, what is key is that what is now 19C may be 21 or 22C in the future...

The biggest factor of that is that large area that is now 22C near 30N that may be 25 or 26C in the future. That is a MAJOR shift for a tropical systems possible environment. Water that would normal start zapping a cyclone of it's energy covers a wide swath 1000 miles from the California coast could be reduced to a couple hundred miles, and that water instead of being 19C, could only be 21 or 22C during that same time frame. This would drastically reduce the potential amount of energy a tropical system could lose upon landfall.

We have all seen hurricanes thrive in sub 26C waters.
Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



I don't know what you're referring to. Can you be more, or at least a little, specific?


Tropical storm landfalls in California. The 1858 event may have been a cat 1.

Link
Quoting 128. yonzabam:



Tropical storm landfalls in California. The 1858 event may have been a cat 1.

Link


My comment did not speak to the probability of tropical storm landfalls in California.
Quoting 121. Hazardousweather:



So, what happened in September of 1939 and October of 1858?


These are exactly the type of events that could become more frequent and would be very problematic for the Desert SW. Think about the volumes of water you would be throwing into a desert environment, one that is populated. 5" of rain over a widespread swath of the region of Death Valley would be a problem.

Michael E. Mann:

I think I'll call this "Stormy Stormy Night". Apologies to Vincent!

Quoting 112. JeffMasters:
Thanks, Barbara, I modified the post to reflect the official confirmation.
Dr. M.

You're very welcome, doc.


Source. Not exactly cool in Spain right now. Cordoba airport just hit 44,3C (111.7F), and a lot of hot and hotter days to come. All time heat record of this place is 46,6C = 115.9F (23 July 1995) according to wiki.


Outlook for Cordoba. Source wetteronline.
Hope Spain won't start to send this heat northward once again ;-)
Quoting 127. ILwthrfan:

Jedkins01
Sar2401
TimSoCal



This map is illustrating my point. Those cold waters buffering San Diego from those warmer 22-24C SST will only grow smaller and smaller, thus systems will have less run time over those colder waters that would otherwise zap more energy from tropical systems.

The ending result is systems will have a greater chance advancing closer to and upon impact if the track of the system is just right.

It does not matter the size current that is impacting the California coast. That current will warm just like all the rest of the water on this planet. Though some areas will be magnified more than others, what is key is that what is now 19C may be 21 or 22C in the future...

The biggest factor of that is that large area that is now 22C near 30N that may be 25 or 26C in the future. That is a MAJOR shift for a tropical systems possible environment. Water that would normal start zapping a cyclone of it's energy covers a wide swath 1000 miles from the California coast would could be reduced to a couple hundred miles, and that water instead of being 19C, could only be 21 or 22C during that same time frame. This would drastically reduce the potential amount of energy a tropical system could lose upon landfall.

We have all seen hurricanes thrive in sub 26C waters.
You're assuming a lot of facts not in evidence. That 20 to 22 degree water is hundreds of miles off the coast. Yes, a very few hurricanes have survived sub 26 degree waters but I don't know of any that survived 20 degree water while still a hurricane. That kind of temperature will kill almost any tropical cyclone. I can't see any reason the Japanese Current is going to warm by more than 1 degree centigrade with even the most pessimistic scenarios by 2100. I can see how a monster cat 5 moving north from Baja could retain enough momentum to give San Diego a tropical storm. That has almost happened already in modern times, but it's really the remnants from big storms that cause the trouble inland, not along the coast. Any warmer waters that do occur are still going to be a long way off the coast, and storms are going to follow those isotherms, not track closer to the coast. You're describing an ideal scenario for water temperatures that haven't happened, and we won't really know the effect of those warmer temperatures until they do happen. At least for the lifespan of those reading this post, it's highly doubtful we are going to see much change in the frequency of tropical storms penetrating far enough north, and close enough to the coast, to put the San Diego area at a bigger risk of tropical storm landfalls.
Well, the strongest Madden Julian Oscillation phase ever recorded, again.







#source: https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/6180760776 76756992
6z GFS has a very nice wave at the end of the run with very strong vorticity.
Understanding the Madden–Julian oscillation


The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, shown here in orange, is the warmest body of open ocean water on Earth. CREDIT: Earth Observatory
Quoting 136. Xandra:

Understanding the Madden–Julian oscillation


The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, shown here in orange, is the warmest body of open ocean water on Earth. CREDIT: Earth Observatory


Thanks for posting this. Great article.
These West Pac storms are strengthening, but not all that impressive quite yet. Chan-hom remains heavily south-weighted. Very deep convection on that south side.



And Nangka has some dry air issues on its west side, which is interfering with the core.



Still, both have a good chance to reach super typhoon status. Chan-hom being the more imminent threat, it should landfall in about 4 days. Nangka may roam around for another 7-9 days. Looks like it could try to throw on the brakes in 5 days or so, unusual for a recurving storm in the West Pac.
Moving a little closer to home, we should see anywhere from 2-4 storms in the East Pac next 10-14 days. 96E should be one, although it doesn't look poised to become a big storm (nor a potential threat to Hawaii as some earlier projections had shown). At least one storm- likely a strong one- should form closer to Mexico in 5-7 days. And maybe something else a little farther west beyond that. Good time to be a storm tracker.
Quoting 133. sar2401:

You're assuming a lot of facts not in evidence. That kind of temperature will kill almost any tropical cyclone. I can't see any reason the Japanese Current is going to warm by more than 1 degree centigrade with even the most pessimistic scenarios by 2100.

You are correct about the "assumption" on my part, but the most pessimistic models I've seen have a 3-5C increase in SST in this general area. Including all currents...

2020 vs.. 2090


https://profmandia.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/mo deled_temperature_ipcc.gif?w=700





It will be interesting to see how the sub-tropical areas around the world behave over the coming decades. Places between 40 N and 20 N. It is here I feel that we could see a drastic increase in storm activity.

But you are correct Sar2401 with the unknowns, and then you have local and regional differences as well. This is a broad brush scenario when looking at the models.


Oh, how much we do not know about the collective human consciousness.
Amazing... Vincent van Gogh's tortured mind conceived his image of the sky more than a century before software engineer Cameron Beccario's nullschool CGI wind images became a pass-time for wu wind watchers.


"Starry Night" by Vincent van Gogh
image credit: Wikipedia common https://twitter.com/cambecc
When will the mjo pulse get into the Atlantic.
Quoting 143. HurricaneAndre:

When will the mjo pulse get into the Atlantic.



Won't matter any ways
Quoting 133. sar2401:

You're assuming a lot of facts not in evidence. That 20 to 22 degree water is hundreds of miles off the coast. Yes, a very few hurricanes have survived sub 26 degree waters but I don't know of any that survived 20 degree water while still a hurricane. That kind of temperature will kill almost any tropical cyclone. I can't see any reason the Japanese Current is going to warm by more than 1 degree centigrade with even the most pessimistic scenarios by 2100. I can see how a monster cat 5 moving north from Baja could retain enough momentum to give San Diego a tropical storm. That has almost happened already in modern times, but it's really the remnants from big storms that cause the trouble inland, not along the coast. Any warmer waters that do occur are still going to be a long way off the coast, and storms are going to follow those isotherms, not track closer to the coast. You're describing an ideal scenario for water temperatures that haven't happened, and we won't really know the effect of those warmer temperatures until they do happen. At least for the lifespan of those reading this post, it's highly doubtful we are going to see much change in the frequency of tropical storms penetrating far enough north, and close enough to the coast, to put the San Diego area at a bigger risk of tropical storm landfalls.
Howdy Sar...The 80 degree threshhold for formation is critical for tropical development, but once a mature hurricane forms, other factors that must be considered. Hurricanes can survive cold water for extended periods of time when the dynamics are there. 1966's Hurricane Faith is a good example...



Hurricane Faith captured by the ESSA-2 satellite on September 1, 1966 as it moved towards Cape Hatteras on the North Carolina coast.

Anybody who questions how much rain I received well here is a view out my side door yesterday evening. The back yard was under a foot of water for a time which came into my sunroom.

Quoting 145. hydrus:

Howdy Sar...The 80 degree threshhold for formation is critical for tropical development, but once a mature hurricane forms, other factors that must be considered. Hurricanes can survive cold water for extended periods of time when the dynamics are there. 1966's Hurricane Faith is a good example...



Hurricane Faith captured by the ESSA-2 satellite on September 1, 1966 as it moved towards Cape Hatteras on the North Carolina coast.




FL looks we hydrus. Getting a little too much rain here North of Orlando now. The uncle word even came out yesterday.


Lots of storms firing around Tampa now.
Not hard to tell where this El-Nino is going. We should blow by 1997 levels across Nino 3.4 once the warming from these strong westerlies are realized. I suspect crow is going to be served soon to some.

forecastguy ‏@forecastguy 3h3 hours ago
#MJO quite literally going off the charts this morning: @EricBlake12 @RyanMaue @WSI_Energy @MDA_Weather @commoditywx pic.twitter.com/cRpDdMWxhI
T rack map of Hurricane Faith as an extratropical cyclone...Faith made it all the way to the North Pole.

Quoting 149. tampabaymatt:



Lots of storms firing around Tampa now.


SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather today due to cold temps aloft combine that with temps 97 here with extreme CAPE is setting the stage for another explosion. We have been rocked on numerous occasions since June 1st here on the NW side of Orlando
Picked up just over an inch of rain yesterday in NW Florida, that was a welcome surprise!
Quoting 152. StormTrackerScott:



SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather today due to cold temps aloft combine that with temps 97 here with extreme CAPE is setting the stage for another explosion. We have been rocked on numerous occasions since June 1st here on the NW side of Orlando


I'm hearing some vicious lightning strikes now.



Very heavy rain occurring in parts of the Tampa Bay area.
This El-Nino is already setting records and it hasn't even come close to peaking. I think this event maybe about to hit its stride.

The ESOI for June was -1.9 , which is the most negative June reading since at least 1950.
Quoting 154. tampabaymatt:



I'm hearing some vicious lightning strikes now.



Almost continuous rumble here.
Quoting 155. tampabaymatt:



Very heavy rain occurring in parts of the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting 157. SunnyDaysFla:


Almost continuous rumble here.


The lightning has been the worst I've ever seen it this summer and I think the biggest reason for all this extreme lightning has been these excessively hot temps in many cases 3 to 5 degrees above average nearly everyday since March 1st. 3 to 5 degrees above average makes a big difference here in FL when the average is already 92 to 93. This added heat has caused CAPE values to soar to unreal numbers at times.
Atmosphere is beginning to erupt.

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en
Quoting 160. StormTrackerScott:

Atmosphere is beginning to erupt.




All that lightning and storm is west from where I am at in St. Lucie County.
check out the spin to the east of the Bahama Islands..............................
Quoting 13. Dakster:

If my math doesn't fail me and it sure might... I get 27.13 MPH.




Which is why most of these dives are feet first not head first.
@#hotpantsverbot
Lol, reading the article below I now understand why - when searching twitter for hitze/heat news - increasingly fervent contributions to the issue of female summer clothing show up ... When I was in German (catholic) highschool back in the 1970ies nuns would object not only "mini skirts" but would also frown to see us in pants, at least in the lower 1970ies - later on long pants were the lesser evil. But hotpants - no way, lol. Well, what problems may show up in schools when GW is further strengthening ;-0

School hotpants ban sparks online debate
The Local (Germany) Published: 06 Jul 2015 16:28 GMT 02:00
A school's decision to ban hot pants for girls during the July heatwave has sparked anger online, with feminist activists decrying the decision as sexist. ....

Have a nice afternoon/evening, everybody. Tomorrow another hot day with severe storms for us in central Europe ...
Quoting 163. LargoFl:

check out the spin to the east of the Bahama Islands..............................


That's an upper level low. It'll spin itself to death.
Quoting 166. rmbjoe1954:



That's an upper level low. It'll spin itself to death.
ok thanks
Guess that six inches of rain yesterday in Central Florida dodged ALL of the gauges......


Link
Quoting 159. StormTrackerScott:



The lightning has been the worst I've ever seen it this summer and I think the biggest reason for all this extreme lightning has been these excessively hot temps in many cases 3 to 5 degrees above average nearly everyday since March 1st. 3 to 5 degrees above average makes a big difference here in FL when the average is already 92 to 93. This added heat has caused CAPE values to soar to unreal numbers at times.


We had some intense lighting in the 34117 beginning around 8pm, lasted till about 1am. Frequent daylight flashes following by boomers louder than anything we heard on the 4th of July the night prior (and the neighbors were certainly trying their best at the noise...)



Link
Quoting 169. nrtiwlnvragn:

Guess that six inches of rain yesterday in Central Florida dodged ALL of the gauges......


Link


There were 2 pockets in North of Orlando with 5" to 6" of rain. 1st one around the Deltona area pic below. The 2nd was across my area/Apopka up to Rock Springs.

Deltona
Ooh, someone has fixed their problem in a hurry... what dry air?



Quoting 144. Tazmanian:




Won't matter any ways
Hi Taz, why do you say that?
Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



I don't know what you're referring to. Can you be more, or at least a little, specific?


Sorry had to step away for a few. I didn't realize I was quoting you, Tampabaymatt. I apologize. There was discussion regarding ingredients necessary for a tropical system with tropical storm or hurricane strength to make landfall in Southern California. I made a reference to a probable hurricane in 1858 and a strong tropical storm in 1939 that likely did exactly that. I know the discussion has long since passed but I wanted to let you know that was a mistake on my part.
This pick was from Universal. This lightning struck hit a resort and caused a fire.

Quoting 172. MAweatherboy1:

Ooh, someone has fixed their problem in a hurry... what dry air?









UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 12:39:15 N Lon : 156:38:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.5mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.1 degrees

So who still thinks we won't see atleast a 2C ENSO. LOL!

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 12m12 minutes ago
ECMWF fcsts historically strong WWB bw 120-150W- would almost certainly be a July record #elnino #climate @MJVentrice
Quoting 127. ILwthrfan:

Jedkins01
Sar2401
TimSoCal



This map is illustrating my point. Those cold waters buffering San Diego from those warmer 22-24C SST will only grow smaller and smaller, thus systems will have less run time over those colder waters that would otherwise zap more energy from tropical systems.

The ending result is systems will have a greater chance advancing closer to and upon impact if the track of the system is just right.

It does not matter the size current that is impacting the California coast. That current will warm just like all the rest of the water on this planet. Though some areas will be magnified more than others, what is key is that what is now 19C may be 21 or 22C in the future...

The biggest factor of that is that large area that is now 22C near 30N that may be 25 or 26C in the future. That is a MAJOR shift for a tropical systems possible environment. Water that would normal start zapping a cyclone of it's energy covers a wide swath 1000 miles from the California coast could be reduced to a couple hundred miles, and that water instead of being 19C, could only be 21 or 22C during that same time frame. This would drastically reduce the potential amount of energy a tropical system could lose upon landfall.

We have all seen hurricanes thrive in sub 26C waters.


Is it ok with you if I copy your text along with the image to my G+ stream? With your usernick as attribution?
Guess that six inches of rain yesterday in Central Florida dodged ALL of the gauges......


Link




here...maybe this will help.......and you can always find radar rain totals for anywhere in the conus here

.....just look for what date you want in the archives.....

actual measured you can always do cocarahshere
Quoting 180. Webberweather53:



I don't even know why I respond to this garbage of yours sometimes...

Not before you finish your crow. I thought we were already supposed to be in the midst of a strong (let alone a Super) El Nino come July? I could understand these comments more if you were referring to the operational MEI which is running inside the top 10, but clearly, the standard seasonally averaged & even the weekly NINO 3.4 SST anomalies suggest otherwise. Smh...

April 21st:
"If the JMA, Euro, CFSv2, NASA, and list goes on pans out then we could very well see the strongest El-Nino ever recorded in July as forecast calls for values to near 2C across Nino 3.4".

"WOW! This really gives the idea of the El-Nino that is coming over the coming weeks as models are building this El-Nino to near 2C by July then levels off for a couple of months then climbs to 2.5C by October."

May 6th:
"The ticket has been punched for a Strong El-Nino to materialize come late June just 5 weeks away or so."

"Models updating for May on the NMME site seem to suggest we are heading for a 2C El-Nino come end of June into July."

May 7th:
"Models are now leaning for a 2.3C event come July. If that were to occur that would be the Strongest El-Nino ever for July eclipsing the 1997 July mark by a wide margin."

Akhenaton
"The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance."


We are near Strong status now and was in Late June. Also we will likely near 2C by late July as this WWB mean business and its crushing 1997's burst that set off that Super El-Nino. So again your point as its only July 6th. So 2C by late July is very possible right now.
Here is the latest track and intensity forecast for Typhoon Chan-Hom:


Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



We are near Strong status now and was in Late June. Also we will likely near 2C by late July as this WWB mean business and its crushing 1997's burst that set off that Super El-Nino. So again you point as its only July 6th. So 2C by late July is very possible right now.


"Near" & actually reaching the strong, let alone "Super" threshold that you asserted we would be in at this point in time are two entirely different things... My point is you have some serious explaining to do with regards to these botched & over-zealous predictions of yours that you made only a few months ago. If you can't consider any other scenario w/ this event other than the most exceptional, you're doomed to watch your ideas go down in flames for the 2nd year in a row...
Complete reversal of Trades ongoing across the C-Pac and as many are saying today likely the strongest burst ever in July. It should be fun to watch these Nino 3.4 values spike over the coming weeks. Already 2C or higher across Nino 3

I don't even know why I respond to this garbage of yours sometimes...

webber......we could spend all day serving some people the crow they so rightly deserve.....and last year....i was doing and worrying the same as you.....what i learned from that...is there are a large group...that don't need for anyone to remind them....they read the comments just like you do...and they know failure after failure....however..they're built different than you and i....they can just skip over it and not say a word.....now there's also a large group...that love the thrill and excitement of those that will say anything...especially if it's over the top....as for them...no matter how many facts you post...they won't notice...

so what took me a long time to learn...it doesn't matter...so instead...i just post what i want...and i leave the rest....
Quoting 185. Webberweather53:



"Near" & actually reaching the strong, let alone "Super" threshold that you asserted we would be in at this point in time are two entirely different things... My point is you have some serious explaining to do with regards to these botched & over-zealous predictions of yours that you made only a few months ago. If you can't consider any other scenario w/ this event other than the most exceptional, you're doomed to watch your ideas go down in flames for the 2nd year in a row...


Not late July yet. So hold on to your britches as they say in your neck of the woods.
Akhenaton
"The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance."



i had to copy this.....enlarge it...print it out....and pin it above my desk
Quoting 185. Webberweather53:



"Near" & actually reaching the strong, let alone "Super" threshold that you asserted we would be in at this point in time are two entirely different things... My point is you have some serious explaining to do with regards to these botched & over-zealous predictions of yours that you made only a few months ago. If you can't consider any other scenario w/ this event other than the most exceptional, you're doomed to watch your ideas go down in flames for the 2nd year in a row...


Keep calm and carry on. (Both of you LOL)
191. vis0
Don't4get Gravity is heavier on Mondays.
Quoting 189. ricderr:

Akhenaton
"The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance."



i had to copy this.....enlarge it...print it out....and pin it above my desk


I'll be serving you guys some nice looking crows that are nice and plump and ready for eating.
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:



Not late July yet. So hold on to your britches as they say in your neck of the woods.


Late July? Umm, your exact words are there for everyone to see in post 180, & on multiple occasions you clearly stated you expected a 2C+ El Nino came late June or early July. I can't help you if you aren't willing own up to your own serious mistakes even when they're presented right in front of you. Even so, based on the ENSO papers I linked you a few days ago, the direct SST response to anomalous wind stress in the Pacific lags by 6 weeks or so & is related to the phase speed of the Oceanic Kelvin Wave. We won't see the sensible effects in this field until the 2nd half of August @ the earliest...
as you can see the latest wwb event has been going on for 2 and a half weeks with the strongest anomalies recorded as compared to forecast have already occurred.....as compared to 97 which many are prone to do.....sst's flared during and right after wwb's.....presently the last three weeks has seen the 3.4 region stay static at 1.4

Quoting 189. ricderr:

Akhenaton
"The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance."



i had to copy this.....enlarge it...print it out....and pin it above my desk


Akhenaton should have taken his own advice.
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:

Complete reversal of Trades ongoing across the C-Pac and as many are saying today likely the strongest burst ever in July. It should be fun to watch these Nino 3.4 values spike over the coming weeks. Already 2C or higher across Nino 3


There needs to be another kelvin wave if we want to keep up with 1997, the kelvin wave was massive vs this year.
Quoting 194. ricderr:

as you can see the latest wwb event has been going on for 2 and a half weeks with the strongest anomalies recorded as compared to forecast have already occurred.....as compared to 97 which many are prone to do.....sst's flared during and right after wwb's.....presently the last three weeks has seen the 3.4 region stay static at 1.4


There is always a delay on the ocean lol
At the end of the day, this is only an amateur comment section attached to Dr. Master's/Dr. Henson's blogs so folks can discuss these entries and other weather related topics of interests. Can't take yourself too seriously on here because Mother Nature will do whatever she decides to do regardless of what we think; we are not in control................................ :)
Quoting 196. Gearsts:

There needs to be another kelvin wave if we want to keep up with 1997, the kelvin wave was massive vs this year.


Hard to tell but there appears to be a 3rd on being generated in the area you said a few nights ago. Good job pointing that out.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

FLZ040-062015-
MARION FL-
351 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MARION COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JUNIPER SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUNIPER SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&
Quoting 195. nonblanche:



Akhenaton should have taken his own advice.
Maybe this is better.?

He that walks with wise men shall be wise: but a companion of fools shall be destroyed.

Proverbs.
Why would someone want a super el nino?
Summer is here, but Bostonian's are still reminded of their previous winter. The NY Times is reporting this story; Remnant of Boston’s Brutal Winter Threatens to Outlast Summer;
Link
Quoting 169. nrtiwlnvragn:

Guess that six inches of rain yesterday in Central Florida dodged ALL of the gauges......Link
This is a map of all the CoCoRAHS stations in Orange and surrounding counties. There seems to be a swath of heavy rainfall that fell in north central Orange and southern Seminole counties, the highest recorded being 3.55".

Quoting 190. SunnyDaysFla:



Keep calm and carry on. (Both of you LOL)

Letem scrap i say....the stuff can be really good...sometimes even grab the corn and pop it..:)
Quoting 147. StormTrackerScott:



FL looks we hydrus. Getting a little too much rain here North of Orlando now. The uncle word even came out yesterday.



Well for much of Central and SW Florida including my area its been a fun rainy season so far, but the Panhandle looks to be continued drier than average along with SE Florida if current guidance is correct. But really, that rainfall forecast across Central Florida wouldn't really be abnormal it all, it is July where rainfall averages are in the 7-10 inch range.

This has got to be the driest summer to date so far in the southeast Florida coast, I've never seen it so consistently dry there. Normally it's weird to see more than one or two days without at least decent coverage throughout the whole summer there.

Meanwhile mode guidance wants to continue well above average precip in the central Plains and Ohio valley.


I suspect SE FL has been drier than average due the tropical Atlantic being so incredibly stable and dry compared to average. All the deep moisture in Central FL has either pooled locally due to sea breeze interactions or from the gulf. Most of the time when we have gotten a southeast wind so far this summer, thunderstorm coverage decreases as deep layered high pressure and dry air aloft takes over. In contrast, typically that brings in the deepest moisture, along with tropical waves and such. \


211. bwi
A very large high pressure is going to set up over the north pole in the coming days. This year's ice melt has been fairly ordinary based on satellite sensor stats, but the expeditions from last year and the year before reported lots of "rotten" salty first year ice near the pole, which shows up as ice pack in the satellites, but isn't very hard to sail through. If the high over the pole verifies and persists, it should bring a lot of 24-hour insolation to the pole. We'll see if that's enough to kick start a big melt season after all.

Watching ice melt isn't as exciting as watching storms, but it might be the most impactful weather event of the summer!

Here's ECMWF:


Here's GFS:

Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Why would someone want a super el nino?



WE DO !!!!!! CA BADEY NEEDS A SUPER EL NINO
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



We are near Strong status now and was in Late June. Also we will likely near 2C by late July as this WWB mean business and its crushing 1997's burst that set off that Super El-Nino. So again your point as its only July 6th. So 2C by late July is very possible right now.


keep them goalposts movin'.
Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Why would someone want a super el nino?


i dunno, but i do know that if we don't have a mega like-boiling-ocean el nino this year i'm going to be very disappointed in a certain commenter here.
Quoting 210. Jedkins01:




I suspect SE FL has been drier than average due the tropical Atlantic being so incredibly stable and dry compared to average. All the deep moisture in Central FL has either pooled locally due to sea breeze interactions or from the gulf. Most of the time when we have gotten a southeast wind so far this summer, thunderstorm coverage decreases as deep layered high pressure and dry air aloft takes over. In contrast, typically that brings in the deepest moisture, along with tropical waves and such. \





Sod companies in SE FL must be loving this. I can only imagine how many lawns are going to need to be completely re-sodded in the Fall.
Quoting 192. StormTrackerScott:



I'll be serving you guys some nice looking crows that are nice and plump and ready for eating.
They can be tasty..plump is good...Baked in a pie crust well seasoned, better...:)
Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Why would someone want a super el nino?

With the exception of weather (Super Cell, Super Typhoon, Super el-nino), one typically associates the word 'Super' with positive, extraordinary things....Super Bowl, Super Dave, SuperMan, Super Dome, SuperHoudini, SuperSonics, . Maybe that person is just confused and thinks Super El Nino is a positive extraordinary thing?

I say....

Some people say cucumbers taste better pickled.
Quoting 191. vis0:

Don't4get Gravity is heavier on Mondays.
Their were tens, dust grip with wet earths.....gravity is the weakest of the 4 anyhow......love this stuff
Quoting 203. hydrus:

Maybe this is better.?

He that walks with wise men shall be wise: but a companion of fools shall be destroyed.

Proverbs.



That's another good one. People say you are what you eat; an equal if not greater truth is that you are who you associate with, if you do so for long enough.

There are many who have really good proverbs, full of truth. Many times these come into being out of the mistakes we humans make. And many a human realized the truth of his or her error but too late, or too weak or otherwise involved to take his or her own advice.

I could see the Heretic Pharaoh realizing this very thing on his own deathbed. Thanks to his own stubborn nature all around him were either killed or forced into exile; not to mention the numbers killed in the conflicts surrounding this particular shift in dynasties. Not the first time, probably not the last - we humans are weird about things sometimes.

And we love, as a species it seems, to assume our generation's states of affairs are exactly the way they ought to be, have always been so, and always will be, with any change in conditions being an evil to avoid.
Quoting 145. hydrus:

Howdy Sar...The 80 degree threshhold for formation is critical for tropical development, but once a mature hurricane forms, other factors that must be considered. Hurricanes can survive cold water for extended periods of time when the dynamics are there. 1966's Hurricane Faith is a good example...



Hurricane Faith captured by the ESSA-2 satellite on September 1, 1966 as it moved towards Cape Hatteras on the North Carolina coast.


That's an apples to oranges comparison. We already know the Gulf stream is a deep, warm current that has allowed numerous hurricanes to survive to the Canadian Maritimes with the extratropical portions making it to Greenland. That would be like a Pacific hurricane making it to Washington state or British Columbia. It hasn't ever happened and won't in the foreseeable future. We can certainly speculate about what might happen if the Japanese Current turned into another Gulf Stream but we need to see a lot more warming before that becomes more than speculation. One thing is for sure. If we ever get normal 26 degree temperatures off California, that state is going to look nothing like it does today.
Quoting 128. yonzabam:



Tropical storm landfalls in California. The 1858 event may have been a cat 1.

Link

Thanks for posting this link. I had saved this quite a while back on my 'to read' list, my laptop died, and I promptly forgot about it. And now it's back on the list. Thanks :-)
Quoting 206. MrNatural:

Summer is here, but Bostonian's are still reminded of their previous winter. The NY Times is reporting this story; Remnant of Boston’s Brutal Winter Threatens to Outlast Summer;
Link
Pretty amazing. We used to get piles like that after a rough winter in Cleveland, but they'd all be melted by Memorial Day. I suspect most of that trash was from the first rounds of plowing. By later in winter, there probably wasn't much left for the plows to get, so the later snow was cleaner. The result was kind of like a mini glacier, with the heavy snow on top compressing and freezing all that junk at the bottom. All that ice acts as a good insulator. It's one of the reasons ice houses in the old days still had ice in late summer. Unless Boston does get some heavy rain, parts of that pile may very well survive until the next snowfall.
Quoting 130. ILwthrfan:



These are exactly the type of events that could become more frequent and would be very problematic for the Desert SW. Think about the volumes of water you would be throwing into a desert environment, one that is populated. 5" of rain over a widespread swath of the region of Death Valley would be a problem.




Most climate models project dry regions to get drier and wet areas to get wetter, it seems that a warming world will strengthen blocking high pressure in the SW. Water temps is not the only factor to allowing rainfall, look at the Arabian peninsula, it sits next to very warm water, but is dry as a bone, thanks to dominating high pressure.
Offshore buoys along the central California coast show continued warming SSTs.

At 1:50 PM:

Bodega 58.8 F
San Francisco 62.8 F
Monterey 62.8 F
To quote nonblanche:
"an equal if not greater truth is that you are who you associate with, if you do so for long enough."

and as my "abuelo" taught me......"Dime con quien andas y te dire quien eres" loosely translates to "tell me who you walk with and I will tell you who you are.

My weather station says 80% humidity but it feels like 120 here in Silver Spring, MD
Quoting 214. schwankmoe:



i dunno, but i do know that if we don't have a mega like-boiling-ocean el nino this year i'm going to be very disappointed in a certain commenter here.
It has been forecast since November 2013 to happen :)
Quoting 217. MonsterTrough:


With the exception of weather (Super Cell, Super Typhoon, Super el-nino), one typically associates the word 'Super' with positive, extraordinary things....Super Bowl, Super Dave, SuperMan, Super Dome, SuperHoudini, SuperSonics, . Maybe that person is just confused and thinks Super El Nino is a positive extraordinary thing?

I say....

Some people say cucumbers taste better pickled.
When my joints are "super" stiff in the morning I have negative thoughts because of the pain :).
Quoting 212. Tazmanian:




WE DO !!!!!! CA BADEY NEEDS A SUPER EL NINO
No they don't, a nice medium to strong will do just fine. You don't want all the rain and snow at once but spread out over time.
Quoting 192. StormTrackerScott:



I'll be serving you guys some nice looking crows that are nice and plump and ready for eating.


Why?
East Pacific: 96E is still disorganized but it has a pretty good chance at development once the environment becomes more supportive in the next few days.

West Pacific. Typhoon Chan-hom is getting better organized and its set to intensify more and peak at category 4 status later this weak passing by the Japaneese Islands and making landfall in China. TS Linfa is weakening right now but it will start to get better organized temporarily and peak at 55 mph and then start to give up with high wind shear affecting hit. Typhoon Nangka is getting better organized and it will be peaking out at category 3 or 4 status later this week.

Read more...
Linfa:



Chan-hom:



Nangka:

Quoting 227. NativeSun:

No they don't, a nice medium to strong will do just fine. You don't want all the rain and snow at once but spread out over time.


I want it! And I want it NOW!
Quoting 224. BayFog:

Offshore buoys along the central California coast show continued warming SSTs.

At 1:50 PM:

Bodega 58.8 F
San Francisco 62.8 F
Monterey 62.8 F


But still somewhat chilly
Quoting 231. Envoirment:

Linfa:



Chan-hom:



Nangka:


if only the Atlantic could see something like this. But at least we had Ana and Bill.
Wouldn't be surprised if Nangka became a category 5 Super Typhoon tomorrow. Looks like it's underogoing RI:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 12:57:03 N Lon : 156:08:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.7mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1



Link
Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Why would someone want a super el nino?


Not sure what a SUPER El Nino is....I for one would be happy with a redux of 1997-1998 where my rainfall totals were over 200% of normal! Weak and Moderate El Ninos bring no guarantee of increased rain. Heck, even a strong El Nino does not guarantee a wet winter but the odds are increased a lot.
Quoting 211. bwi:

A very large high pressure is going to set up over the north pole in the coming days. This year's ice melt has been fairly ordinary based on satellite sensor stats, but the expeditions from last year and the year before reported lots of "rotten" salty first year ice near the pole, which shows up as ice pack in the satellites, but isn't very hard to sail through. If the high over the pole verifies and persists, it should bring a lot of 24-hour insolation to the pole. We'll see if that's enough to kick start a big melt season after all.

Watching ice melt isn't as exciting as watching storms, but it might be the most impactful weather event of the summer!

Hopping in late night for a last weather check for tomorrow: Big thanks for your post! Before I saw it I was checking the (this time: zonal) jetstream for Europe which should push some significant colder air for two days into my part of the continent, and noticed strange chunks of the jetstream further north racing from the east to west. I wondered whether this would be normal for this time of the year, but as I'm just a bloody amateur, not watching the polar jetstream every day to boot, I just downloaded a pic for myself, chosing one for tomorrow (from German ICON model) where the jetstream over the North Pacific (Alaska, Aleutians) is looking like a dragon which is chasing its own tail, lol. Then I saw your post and thought my "dragon" might be connected with this polar high ... So here is the "dragon":


Source. (Click "animation" to watch the dance)
---------------------------------------

BBC weather video:
Europe heat and thunderstorms
6 July 2015 Last updated at 16:29
The mercury levels have been rising in Europe as there's been no let up in an extreme heatwave. BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker has the latest, including the record breaking temperatures in Germany and the widespread thunderstorms across the continent.

Good night for good now!
Quoting 236. Patrap:

Manual pouch-tracking will begin in mid-July 2015






Spying on marsupials again?
Quoting 231. Envoirment:

Linfa:



Chan-hom:



Nangka:





None of them look that good. I think chan-hom had some problems with shear.
Quoting 232. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I want it! And I want it NOW!


that could be dam crazy.
Quoting 141. ILwthrfan:


You are correct about the "assumption" on my part, but the most pessimistic models I've seen have a 3-5C increase in SST in this general area. Including all currents...

2020 vs.. 2090


https://profmandia.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/mo deled_temperature_ipcc.gif?w=700





It will be interesting to see how the sub-tropical areas around the world behave over the coming decades. Places between 40 N and 20 N. It is here I feel that we could see a drastic increase in storm activity.

But you are correct Sar2401 with the unknowns, and then you have local and regional differences as well. This is a broad brush scenario when looking at the models.



The graphic in your link is for land surface temperatures. The seas surface temperatures shown are only an approximation that assumes land surface temperatures will rise by amounts shown. I'm not saying we're not going to undergo some drastic change by 2100, but the currents that bring cold water off the California coast are part of the largest current systems in the world. Even a 2c increase would take stupendous amounts of energy, and it's hard to see where that could come from over the next 85 years unless we see warming far worse than those pessimistic forecasts. It's certainly possible that a "perfect storm" scenario could bring a strong TS or weak hurricane near San Diego like we saw in 1858, but even that storm never actually made landfall. Regardless of SST's, the upper level winds off San Diego present a hostile environment for any tropical cyclone. It will be interesting to see how climate change affects southern California in all aspects. I will be long dead, but all the young people here get a chance to see it and, unfortunately, feel it.
"No door shall remain unlocked" - Hamburglar
Day breaks over the typhoon producing factory that is the West Pacific.

Quoting 189. ricderr:

Akhenaton
"The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.

This is so true, I often heard there is only two who can't change their mind, one is fool and the other a dead man!
Quoting 237. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Not sure what a SUPER El Nino is....I for one would be happy with a redux of 1997-1998 where my rainfall totals were over 200% of normal! Weak and Moderate El Ninos bring no guarantee of increased rain. Heck, even a strong El Nino does not guarantee a wet winter but the odds are increased a lot.
Strong El Nino's have always brought much more rain than usual and catastrophic floods...to northern California. Southern California is where it gets more variable. Very strong El Nino's have never brought less than average rainfall to southern California but much above average rain in only about 50% of the cases for other El Nino's. The last two very strong El Nino's brought rain 16 inches above normal. The strong El Nino years of 1987-88 shows below average rainfall for LA whereas another strong one in 1972-73 brought six inches above average. 1965-66 had five inches above average. 1968-69 was only a moderate El Nino yet dropped 12 inches above normal. 2002-02 was a moderate El nino that only brought one inch above average. 1986-87, a moderate El Nino year, actually produced a deficit of seven inches, and was the beginning of a five year period of below average rainfall. Unless we get a very strong El Nino like 1997-98, rainfall for southern California is all over the board with other El Nino's. All you can do is hope you get lucky.
"A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down." - Mary Poppins
An eye? lol
Quoting 237. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Not sure what a SUPER El Nino is....I for one would be happy with a redux of 1997-1998 where my rainfall totals were over 200% of normal! Weak and Moderate El Ninos bring no guarantee of increased rain. Heck, even a strong El Nino does not guarantee a wet winter but the odds are increased a lot.


Joe.. I thought you lived local to me.. in PSL ? Why ever would you want a repeat of the water problems of 1998? It was every bit as bad as the lost summer of 2013.
Quoting 198. weathermanwannabe:

...Can't take yourself too seriously on here because Mother Nature will do whatever she decides to do regardless of what we think; we are not in control................................ :)


No, but we aren't a bunch of idiots either. If you poke a killer bee nest with a stick, you don't control how they swarm out of the nest. But you damn well better know to how to run. :P
Quoting 250. indianrivguy:



Joe.. I thought you lived local to me.. in PSL ? Why ever would you want a repeat of the water problems of 1998? It was every bit as bad as the lost summer of 2013.


I was trying to remember the last time parts of SE Fla. was put on water restrictions? I remember we could water only certain days. Was it 1998?
Quoting 250. indianrivguy:



Joe.. I thought you lived local to me.. in PSL ? Why ever would you want a repeat of the water problems of 1998? It was every bit as bad as the lost summer of 2013.
He lives east of San Diego if I remember right.
Quoting 252. GeoffreyWPB:



I was trying to remember the last time parts of SE Fla. was put on water restrictions? I remember we could water only certain days. Was it 1998?


Maybe just before Fay, in 2008?
Aggressive. (click image to expand)

Quoting 251. Xyrus2000:



No, but we aren't a bunch of idiots either. If you poke a killer bee nest with a stick, you don't control how they swarm out of the nest. But you damn well better know to how to run. :P
Quite so. One of the problems with the internet is when you make extraordinary predictions, your words live on. When they are brought back again, you then get hoisted on your own petard. There are three choices, I guess. You can say you never wrote them and it's a lie. You can put up a smokescreen about why your words didn't mean what words in the English language are generally taken to mean. Or, you can just admit you were wrong and move on. It's not shameful to admit you're wrong. I'm wrong a lot, and I'll happily admit it. It's not like they can cut my pension. However, if you choose one or both of the first two options, then you've created the killer bee nest, and people with sticks will be poking at your nest.
257. ackee
H. B many more storm do guys think we see rest of the season ??

A 6
B 5
C 4
D 3
E 2
F o
If you poke a killer bee nest with a stick, you don't control how they swarm out of the nest. But you damn well better know to how to run. :P


Good analogy for how it is around if you don't toe the "party" line.
Quoting 182. ricderr:

Guess that six inches of rain yesterday in Central Florida dodged ALL of the gauges......


Link




here...maybe this will help.......and you can always find radar rain totals for anywhere in the conus here

.....just look for what date you want in the archives.....

actual measured you can always do cocarahshere


delurk
The first link shows about 1 inch in California Central Valley, none would be a closer estimate. The second link agrees with the -none- value.
Quoting 248. GeoffreyWPB:

"A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down." - Mary Poppins
"
"All that sugar makes you fat and gives you diabetes" - Dr. Oz
Out of curiosity, I recently analyzed the amplification period of El Ninos using the ERSSTv4 1870-Present ONI data, and looked only at ENSO events that met the CPC's ONI criteria. Due to the noise in this record, many El Ninos did not observe continuous intensification during their emergence, thus I assumed that if strengthening did not resume during 2 subsequent tri-monthlies, I would reject that period from this analysis, I also smoothed the data over 3 months to account for the aforementioned noise. Additionally, I only used when the ONI index was positive (you could include periods w/ -SST anomalies, but this would result in a linear shift & flattening of the spectral peak). In the rare cases that the tri-monthly peak of an El Nino was spread over multiple tri-monthlies, I used the first tri-monthly as the climax of that El Nino. In general, most El Ninos intensify for 6-9 tri-monthlies, with a distinct median of around 7 tri-monthlies. Knowing this NINO began to strengthen late last winter, this would imply we will see an unusually early peak around SON, but there were plenty of NINOs (many of which, not surprisingly ended up being strong) that intensified for 10 consecutive tri-monthlies, but this information is interesting nonetheless.


There's certainly some noise earlier in the record (via the 1877-78 & 1888-89 NINOs), during multi-year El Ninos, and in the 1940s, that I'd eventually like to correct with an ensemble of datasets from multiple variables, with the 19th century data (particularly, the 1877-78 & 1888-89 El Ninos) giving me a headache, presenting a false impression of a minor secondary peak in beyond 12 months.

Irregardless, I think this is good enough for now, especially considering the large sample size of this analysis (41 El Ninos).
Quoting 237. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Not sure what a SUPER El Nino is....I for one would be happy with a redux of 1997-1998 where my rainfall totals were over 200% of normal! Weak and Moderate El Ninos bring no guarantee of increased rain. Heck, even a strong El Nino does not guarantee a wet winter but the odds are increased a lot.


Under Jan Null's ONI criterion, a "Super" El Nino is defined as an event 3 consecutive seasonally averaged (tri-monthly) periods with centered 30-year moving NINO 3.4 SST anomalies that exceed +2.0C. Even though ERSSTv4 suggests there are technically 4 such NINOs in the record, using other indices (MEI.ext, BEST, etc.) & datasets, 1877-78, & 1982-83, & 1997-98 are clearly the distinguished, breakaway "Super" El Ninos in the observational record. To date, these are the only 3 three El Ninos to rank in the top 5 in all of the 5 primary indices used for ENSO monitoring thru the mid-late 19th century including Jones SOI, MEI.ext, BEST, Hadley NINO 3.4 SSTs, & Cold Tongue Index (CTI). Hence, I think the idea of recognizing these three extraordinary El Ninos by placing them into their own category, separate from other "Strong" events, is justified.
Again those who want to continue to attack me on this El-Nino really needs to read this. It's a good read.


Dr. Steve Gregory

El Niño / MJO

SST anomalies across the tropical EPAC have continued to rise, and have reached the ‘Strong’ category, with anomalies in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region now near +1.5˚C. In addition, the MEI composite metric that takes into account additional atmospheric factors, is now near +1.35 which is well thin the ‘strong’ category. While not considered as ‘important’ to the classification of an ENSO event, SST anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region in the far EPAC near the central America and NW South American coast are now over +2.5˚C as down-welling associated with a near stationary oceanic Kelvin wave continues to warm SST’s in that region.

An increase in low level westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific associated with the latest and very strong strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) will be driving SST’s in the EPAC even higher over the next 2 weeks - and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it.

As forecast by virtually all models, the MJO has rapidly intensified over the past week, and is technically as strong as the mega-event this past March. The signal is now over the WPAC, and is expected to begin weakening rapidly this week as it moves towards the Dateline. While the calculated intensity of the MJO may be overdone since strong tropical cyclones in the WPAC are partially responsible for the strong westerly wind anomalies, there’s little doubt that the strong WWB and broadening region of westerly winds will almost certainly trigger another oceanic Kelvin wave during the next week or so - or at the very least, re-enforce the strong Kelvin wave already located in the EPAC. Either way, the net result will be to strengthen El Niño even further.
Quoting 258. PensacolaDoug:

If you poke a killer bee nest with a stick, you don't control how they swarm out of the nest. But you damn well better know to how to run. :P


Good analogy for how it is around if you don't toe the "party" line.
Well, yeah, the "party" line here is generally science. Just bring us some peer reviewed science that shows AGW is bunk. Really, I want believe it's bunk. I don't want my grandkids to go through all the things that science says are likely to happen before they get to my age. So just show us the science that supports the view it's bunk and everything's fine.
As far as CO2 levels go, wasn't there some blogger who assured us that no human presently alive would ever see CO2 below 400 again? Whoever that was, just so you're not dissapointed , it's looking like CO2 will go down to 397-398 in the next 2 months. Present o/u(my own number) is 397.8 during the seasonal downtrend. That would still be a signifigant year-to-year increase in the seasonal downturn. If it does stay over 400 this year you can get 8/1 odds. We're 1 or 2 years away from these forever and ever predictions, imo.
.
Quoting 258. PensacolaDoug:

If you poke a killer bee nest with a stick, you don't control how they swarm out of the nest. But you damn well better know to how to run. :P


Good analogy for how it is around if you don't toe the "party" line.


What line is that? Be specific. Show us where the conspiracy is, we want evidence, not blather.

Quoting 264. CosmicEvents:

As far as CO2 levels go, wasn't there some blogger who assured us that no human presently alive would ever see CO2 below 400 again?

Evidence that any such thing was ever said would be nice rather than alluding to "some blogger". A quote would be best. Otherwise, it's just as plausible that you misunderstood something that you read.
Quoting 183:
...So 2C by late July is very possible right now.

Quoting 251. Xyrus2000:



No, but we aren't a bunch of idiots either. If you poke a killer bee nest with a stick, you don't control how they swarm out of the nest. But you damn well better know to how to run. :P


Beekeeper trivia: Beekeepers in Latin America who choose to keep Africanized Honey Bees (AHBs, aka "Killer Bees") don't bother using smoke. They use pressurized CO2. Apparently it works well enough to keep the hives for honey production.
Quoting 255. BaltimoreBrian:

Aggressive. (click image to expand)



Hey, Brian. Just a heads up - the 'click to expand' on this graphic doesn't work for me. I've seen those instructions on similar graphics before, and it's often the case that clicking on it doesn't expand it :/
Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:

Again those who want to continue to attack me on this El-Nino really needs to read this. It's a good read.


Dr. Steve Gregory

El Niño / MJO

SST anomalies across the tropical EPAC have continued to rise, and have reached the ‘Strong’ category, with anomalies in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region now near +1.5˚C. In addition, the MEI composite metric that takes into account additional atmospheric factors, is now near +1.35 which is well thin the ‘strong’ category. While not considered as ‘important’ to the classification of an ENSO event, SST anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region in the far EPAC near the central America and NW South American coast are now over +2.5˚C as down-welling associated with a near stationary oceanic Kelvin wave continues to warm SST’s in that region.

An increase in low level westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific associated with the latest and very strong strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) will be driving SST’s in the EPAC even higher over the next 2 weeks - and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it.

As forecast by virtually all models, the MJO has rapidly intensified over the past week, and is technically as strong as the mega-event this past March. The signal is now over the WPAC, and is expected to begin weakening rapidly this week as it moves towards the Dateline. While the calculated intensity of the MJO may be overdone since strong tropical cyclones in the WPAC are partially responsible for the strong westerly wind anomalies, there’s little doubt that the strong WWB and broadening region of westerly winds will almost certainly trigger another oceanic Kelvin wave during the next week or so - or at the very least, re-enforce the strong Kelvin wave already located in the EPAC. Either way, the net result will be to strengthen El Niño even further.


Focusing on the following italicized statement,
"...and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it."

knowing that there might be only one El Nino, if any that surpassed 1997-98 by any margin whatsoever (1877-78), with no El Nino in the entire observed record (1850-present) passing it "easily" as you've suggested on multiple occasions would be the case this year, this alone is enough reasoning for me to remain extremely skeptical & persistently express the upmost dissidence to this exceptional claim, among a collection of others you have incessantly spouted of late. I wouldn't even consider the idea of a Super El Nino, much less the potential of beating out 1997-98 legitimate until we're beyond the Autumnal Equinox, when we should be able adequately assess the peak of this NINO with considerable precision & hypothetically, are left with few options but to accept (if necessary) that we are going to be faced with what would be a devastating, worst-case scenario "Super" NINO. The odds of seeing a strong El Nino, however have slowly increased in the last several months...
Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:

Again those who want to continue to attack me on this El-Nino really needs to read this. It's a good read.


Dr. Steve Gregory

El Niño / MJO

SST anomalies across the tropical EPAC have continued to rise, and have reached the ‘Strong’ category, with anomalies in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region now near +1.5˚C. In addition, the MEI composite metric that takes into account additional atmospheric factors, is now near +1.35 which is well thin the ‘strong’ category. While not considered as ‘important’ to the classification of an ENSO event, SST anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region in the far EPAC near the central America and NW South American coast are now over +2.5˚C as down-welling associated with a near stationary oceanic Kelvin wave continues to warm SST’s in that region.

An increase in low level westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific associated with the latest and very strong strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) will be driving SST’s in the EPAC even higher over the next 2 weeks - and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it.

As forecast by virtually all models, the MJO has rapidly intensified over the past week, and is technically as strong as the mega-event this past March. The signal is now over the WPAC, and is expected to begin weakening rapidly this week as it moves towards the Dateline. While the calculated intensity of the MJO may be overdone since strong tropical cyclones in the WPAC are partially responsible for the strong westerly wind anomalies, there’s little doubt that the strong WWB and broadening region of westerly winds will almost certainly trigger another oceanic Kelvin wave during the next week or so - or at the very least, re-enforce the strong Kelvin wave already located in the EPAC. Either way, the net result will be to strengthen El Niño even further.
Another Kelvin wave possible.
Quoting 252. GeoffreyWPB:



I was trying to remember the last time parts of SE Fla. was put on water restrictions? I remember we could water only certain days. Was it 1998?


Miami-Dade has gone to permanent restrictions.
Quoting 249. pablosyn:

An eye? lol

Looks like it might still be getting sheared from the NE, but that CDO looks nasty.  If that COC gets under that and shear lets up, it is in a very bad spot. 

Very unpredictable situation with FUJIWARA likely to take place between Chan-Hom & Linfa.  So these could radically and likely will change...

Chan-Hom


LINFA



Quoting 269. LAbonbon:


Hey, Brian. Just a heads up - the 'click to expand' on this graphic doesn't work for me. I've seen those instructions on similar graphics before, and it's often the case that clicking on it doesn't expand it :/


That's strange, it works for me. I click on the image and then "view image" on the drop-down and it expands.
Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:

(snip)

Never used to regularly read Gregory's blog. A while back I started to do so - it's really helped me see the 'big picture', and to understand what's coming down the pike.

Minor thing - don't think he's a Ph.D. (someone correct me if I'm wrong)
Quoting 274. BaltimoreBrian:



That's strange, it works for me. I click on the image and then "view image" on the drop-down and it expands.

Huh. I wonder if my laptop is missing something in order to do this. A drop-down doesn't appear. In any case, I just zoomed in the old fashioned way :)
I predicted that the last day CO2 would be below 400 ppm at Mauna Loa would be November 9, 2016 ;)

First 500 ppm daily reading? April 23, 2049 ;)
LAbonbon I use firefox, maybe that's the issue?
An increase in low level westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific associated with the latest and very strong strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) will be driving SST’s in the EPAC even higher over the next 2 weeks - and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it.

"As forecast by virtually all models, the MJO has rapidly intensified over the past week, and is technically as strong as the mega-event this past March. The signal is now over the WPAC, and is expected to begin weakening rapidly this week as it moves towards the Dateline. While the calculated intensity of the MJO may be overdone since strong tropical cyclones in the WPAC are partially responsible for the strong westerly wind anomalies, there’s little doubt that the strong WWB and broadening region of westerly winds will almost certainly trigger another oceanic Kelvin wave during the next week or so - or at the very least, re-enforce the strong Kelvin wave already located in the EPAC. Either way, the net result will be to strengthen El Niño even further."

Liberal Lies!
Quoting 270. Webberweather53:



Focusing on the following italicized statement,
"...and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it."

knowing that there might be only one El Nino, if any that surpassed 1997-98 by any margin whatsoever (1877-78), with no El Nino in the entire observed record (1850-present) passing it "easily" as you've suggested on multiple occasions would be the case this year, this alone is enough reasoning for me to remain extremely skeptical & persistently express the upmost dissidence to this exceptional claim, among a collection of others you have incessantly spouted of late. I wouldn't even consider the idea of a Super El Nino, much less the potential of beating out 1997-98 legitimate until we're beyond the Autumnal Equinox, when we should be able adequately assess the peak of this NINO with considerable precision & hypothetically, are left with few options but to accept (if necessary) that we are going to be faced with what would be a devastating, worst-case scenario "Super" NINO. The odds of seeing a strong El Nino, however have slowly increased in the last several months...
Could someone list some of the devastating effects of super nino? Thanks.
Its is way out in time at 312 hours, but I had to post it...Look just S.W. of California...

Quoting 280. cytochromeC:

An increase in low level westerly wind anomalies over the central Pacific associated with the latest and very strong strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) will be driving SST’s in the EPAC even higher over the next 2 weeks - and will almost certainly make this the strongest El Niño event since the Super El Niño of 1997/98 – and may possibly exceed it.

"As forecast by virtually all models, the MJO has rapidly intensified over the past week, and is technically as strong as the mega-event this past March. The signal is now over the WPAC, and is expected to begin weakening rapidly this week as it moves towards the Dateline. While the calculated intensity of the MJO may be overdone since strong tropical cyclones in the WPAC are partially responsible for the strong westerly wind anomalies, there’s little doubt that the strong WWB and broadening region of westerly winds will almost certainly trigger another oceanic Kelvin wave during the next week or so - or at the very least, re-enforce the strong Kelvin wave already located in the EPAC. Either way, the net result will be to strengthen El Niño even further."

Liberal Lies!

Left. left, left, Liberal ..YEAH..!!!!!
"My accountant worships me because I'm so cautious with my money" - The Count
I think the biggest question is whether the active era ended after the 2010 season. 2011 was active but that was the year instability began to tank. hurricane irene was supposed to hit the U.S. at a much stronger intensity but was much weaker than anticipated. Maybe the active era was just 15 years. since 2011 instability has been super low and the enso has been a non factor when it came to the atlantic hurricane seasons(2012,2013,2014) non el nino inactive years
Quoting 279. BaltimoreBrian:

LAbonbon I use firefox, maybe that's the issue?

Just tried FF, rt clicking yields a 'view image' option in the drop down menu that Chrome doesn't. Not willing to switch, though, as Chrome is still a lot faster, without the script error (yeah, I know there's a fix out there for FF, but haven't done it yet...)
Quoting 272. nrtiwlnvragn:



Miami-Dade has gone to permanent restrictions.


Florida has limited amount of bedrock to actually store received rain, not only is the bedrock shallow, but because it's porous, while that makes it easier to handle heavy rain, water is also lost faster.

Also, most don't think about the fact that in tropical areas like Florida, most rainfall comes from very heavy rain in short time, and in cities, especially near the coast, much of that get's washed into the ocean. As a result, despite that southeast Florida has a yearly average precip of more than 60 inches, much of that either can't be collected in the shallow bedrock, is lost easily in dry periods, or the greatest loss of all, washed away into the ocean through storm drains.

Really, imagine if all the billions of gallons of water during all the rainy season torrential down pours in coastal Florida cities(and other coastal cities too) was collected in cisterns, and used as drinking water and plants? Even during drought years, I am quite sure we could avoid water restrictions if this was done on large scale...
Quoting 287. LAbonbon:


Just tried FF, rt clicking yields a 'view image' option in the drop down menu that Chrome doesn't. Not willing to switch, though, as Chrome is still a lot faster, without the script error (yeah, I know there's a fix out there for FF, but haven't done it yet...)
Hello Bon..I switched to Chrome after a few years with Firefox..I like it better...so far....
Quoting 288. Jedkins01:



Florida has limited amount of bedrock to actually store received rain, not only is the bedrock shallow, but because it's porous, while that makes it easier to handle heavy rain, water is also lost faster.

Also, most don't think about the fact that in tropical areas like Florida, most rainfall comes from very heavy rain in short time, and in cities, especially near the coast, much of that get's washed into the ocean. As a result, despite that southeast Florida has a yearly average precip of more than 60 inches, much of that either can't be collected in the shallow bedrock, is lost easily in dry periods, or the greatest loss of all, washed away into the ocean through storm drains.

Really, imagine if all the billions of gallons of water during all the rainy season torrential down pours in coastal Florida cities(and other coastal cities too) was collected in cisterns, and used as drinking water and plants? Even during drought years, I am quite sure we could avoid water restrictions if this was done on large scale...
Absolutely....They could put the cisterns underground in water tight segments, so there is no salt water intrusion, or other pollutants.

Quoting 281. Kenfa03:

Could someone list some of the devastating effects of super nino? Thanks.
Droughts, flash floods, floods, famine, high food prices, devastation to infrastructure, landslides and a poor harvest of the Peruvian anchoveta. Among others.
284. BaltimoreBrian
12:36 AM GMT on July 07, 2015

As always cool post...love the one about the light
295. 882MB
Quoting 294. WaterWitch11:

284. BaltimoreBrian
12:36 AM GMT on July 07, 2015

As always cool post...love the one about the light

You're welcome waterwitch11!


violent/intense typhoon forecast west of Northern Marianas in 72 hours.
300. beell
A right-click in Chrome offers a submenu item "Open image in new tab". Left-click to select.

A bit of html linking the graphic and the page that contains the graphic will give you a "left-clickable" image-but then you'll get a nag-screen from WU "This link is taking you outside of WeatherUnderground..." which requires another click on the "OK" button to view the image-followed by clicking on the "new tab" to view the image.

Pretty much the same amount of clicks. It does have its uses, however...


left-click to open image in new window

Brian, we're on the same wavelength :)

From NWS-Tulsa:


Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, likely producing heavy rainfall, will begin later tonight and continue through Wednesday as a slow-moving frontal boundary passes through the region. Total rainfall amounts will range from 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts to 10 inches, across parts of northeast Oklahoma northwest of a line from Okemah to Jay. 2 to 4 inches of rain are forecast to the south of this area and north of a line from Eufaula to Berryville. These rainfall amounts should lead to areas of flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for this portion of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas from 7 pm Monday to 7 pm Wednesday. Lower rainfall amounts will be found southeast of the watch area, with heavy rain less likely to affect parts of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Limited severe thunderstorm potential will also exist through mid week.

and NWS-Norman:

Rainfall for OKC so far this year is 38.30" (average annual rainfall is 36.52"). Decent chance OKC will pass 40" tonight.
Wow!
Link
@beell - you got me with that one...but I don't know about your taste in music...
A 0z ASCAT pass caught most of Chan-hom. The wind field continues to expand, with an impressive area of 50kt winds. Over the coming days, as Chan-hom continues to build strength, its large size and high intensity should act to build a potentially destructive storm surge. I sure hope residents in eastern China are paying close attention to this cyclone.

Tropical Depression tomorrow morning and probably Dolores tomorrow afternoon...Well, Dolores or Ela? Can it become tropical storm before 140ºE?



Quoting 297. CybrTeddy:




Yikes, that's not what I want to see.
A bit wet here in the mountains of eastern Costa Rica -- my Vantage VUE says 9.8 inches in the past 24 hours. Some infrastructure damage: the main bridge between me and the city of Turrialba is closed due to erosion around the center support pillar. I hope the other two, which are weight-limited for the larger trucks, won't get hurt too. I need to go shopping tomorrow.
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 0z ASCAT pass caught most of Chan-hom. The wind field continues to expand, with an impressive area of 50kt winds. Over the coming days, as Chan-hom continues to build strength, its large size and high intensity should act to build a potentially destructive storm surge. I sure hope residents in eastern China are paying close attention to this cyclone.




I'm paying attention, TA. Any thoughts on effects in Shanghai? I'm hoping it will come ashore well south of here.
The level of concern here in China about the threat from Chan-hom is very low. People aren't preparing; I don't think most even know about it.
Quoting 309. galvestonhurricane:



I'm paying attention, TA. Any thoughts on effects in Shanghai? I'm hoping it will come ashore well south of here.

Shanghai is in a much better spot this evening compared to yesterday evening. While I'd expect gusty winds and heavy rain just due to the sheer size of the storm, it looks like the worst of the cyclone should be well south of there. Hopefully that doesn't change.


96 hours map.
Very impressive WWB spreading across the Pacific. Expect some sharp rises across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 very soon as warmer water continues to pile over toward the C & Eastern Pacific.



Another day of very heavy rains except this time favoring East Central Florida

Quoting 302. BaltimoreBrian:

Rainfall for OKC so far this year is 38.30" (average annual rainfall is 36.52"). Decent chance OKC will pass 40" tonight.


Welp, average annual precip is 56 inches here, that's like being at 58 already, well maybe not quite, since 70-80% of average annul rain here falls from June to September, but still, that's crazy...

I wonder if they'll make a run for the wettest year on record, if they passed the year to day average already, it's possible!
Quoting 314. StormTrackerScott:

Another day of very heavy rains except this time favoring East Central Florida




It's only fair, June was soggy over here in most places, 14.95 here, so it's about time there have been some west to east flow days. Unfortunately, the flow has still favored convection in SW Florida instead of drought ridden SE Florida due to position of high.
Quoting 316. Jedkins01:



It's only fair, June was soggy over here in most places, 14.95 here, so it's about time there have been some west to east flow days. Unfortunately, the flow has still favored convection in SW Florida instead of drought ridden SE Florida due to position of high.


The difference Jed is the lack of northerly extent of these Tropical Waves. SE FL usually gets lots of late night and early AM Rains as a result of these waves and Tropical Moisture coming in from the Bahamas. As a result of El-Nino this source of moisture for SE FL has been shut down, However Orlando/Tampa areas down to SW FL have really been socked lately due to daily sea breeze collisions as a result of above normal temps, cool temps aloft, high PWAT's, and very high CAPE values. Getting very soggy around here as over 14" of rain have fallen at my location since June 1st.
Quoting 263. sar2401:

Well, yeah, the "party" line here is generally science. Just bring us some peer reviewed science that shows AGW is bunk. Really, I want believe it's bunk. I don't want my grandkids to go through all the things that science says are likely to happen before they get to my age. So just show us the science that supports the view it's bunk and everything's fine.


This is something that for some reason deniers just don't get. No one wants global warming to be real. I certainly don't, and I'm pretty no one else does either. However, the scientific evidence of it's existence is overwhelming.

I don't read climate science research because I'm looking to validate my position. I read them to find flaws. I'm looking for any potential oversight that could possibly show that things won't be as bad as projected. I'm looking for errors that would show that we actually have a longer time horizon to deal with the problems.

Unfortunately I lack the capability to believe in magic, fairy tales, or whatever it is that deniers use to help them sleep at night. Science needs to counter science, and so far not a single denier has provided anything even remotely close to scientifically invalidating global warming.

Do you know how aggravating and disappointing it is to want someone to reveal the big mistake in climate science, only to be faced with half-baked nonsense, excel graphs, and conspiracy theories? Who needs science to disprove climate research anyway when you have the vast liberal NWO takeover of the world so they can marry gay aliens and force everyone to eat grape-nuts and wear rainbow clothing...or something.


Here is the radar image of the storm that stalled over my area yesterday evening dropping excessive rains. Storm sat here for nearly an hour before dropping SE with momentum. This storm was a result of several boundary collisions that occurred right over the Apopka/Wekiva area.

Quoting 300. beell:

A right-click in Chrome offers a submenu item "Open image in new tab". Left-click to select.

A bit of html linking the graphic and the page that contains the graphic will give you a "left-clickable" image-but then you'll get a nag-screen from WU "This link is taking you outside of WeatherUnderground..." which requires another click on the "OK" button to view the image-followed by clicking on the "new tab" to view the image.

Pretty much the same amount of clicks. It does have its uses, however...


left-click to open image in new window


LOL, Beell, rickrolling on WU....
Unheard of.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
746 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

CAC027-070400-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150707T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
INYO CA-
746 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN INYO COUNTY...

AT 742 PM PDT...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF DEATH
VALLEY NATIONAL PARK. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SPOTS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF INTO
LOW LYING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STOVEPIPE WELLS...FURNACE CREEK...SHOSHONE...BADWATER...DARWIN...
TEXAS SPRINGS CAMPGROUND...PANAMINT SPRINGS...DEATH VALLEY JUNCTION
AND DANTES VIEW.
Quoting 310. galvestonhurricane:

The level of concern here in China about the threat from Chan-hom is very low. People aren't preparing; I don't think most even know about it.
Shanghai is often at the edges of tropical cyclones and it looks like it will be the case with Chan-hom. There hasn't been a direct hit on Shanghai in many decades, Frankly, if there was going to be a direct hit, what could the Shanghai government do, other than some immediate coastal evacuations? With 25 million people, it would like trying to evacuate something like three New York City's. It's not the first time the people there have had to deal with a typhoon and they have their system down pat, or at least as much as you can have with the worlds largest megalopolis.
Quoting 315. Jedkins01:

Welp, average annual precip is 56 inches here, that's like being at 58 already, well maybe not quite, since 70-80% of average annul rain here falls from June to September, but still, that's crazy...

I wonder if they'll make a run for the wettest year on record, if they passed the year to day average already, it's possible!

Record for OK is 56.95" in 2007 and #2 is 52.78" in 2013. Records go back to 1890. If OKC gets 5-6" out of this and a few more rain events the rest of the year, could happen. Normal rainfall for the rest of the year would get OKC to a close #2.
Quoting 322. BayFog:

Unheard of.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
746 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

CAC027-070400-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150707T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
INYO CA-
746 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN INYO COUNTY...

AT 742 PM PDT...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF DEATH
VALLEY NATIONAL PARK. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN SPOTS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF INTO
LOW LYING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STOVEPIPE WELLS...FURNACE CREEK...SHOSHONE...BADWATER...DARWIN...
TEXAS SPRINGS CAMPGROUND...PANAMINT SPRINGS...DEATH VALLEY JUNCTION
AND DANTES VIEW.
Not unheard of at all. That's why there are signs everywhere warning motorists in Death Valley about flash flood down the normally dry washes. As you can see by the rain amounts in the warning, it doesn't take a huge amount of rain to get the washes running bank to bank. I'd have to look up the date, but sometime back in the 90's there was a prolonged series of these events during the monsoon that washed out almost every road in Death Valley, and the park was mostly closed for a month. There used to be a railroad called the Tonopah and Tidewater that ran to Death Valley Junction and Beatty. Their tracks and roadbed were washed out by flash flood multiple times in the 30's, culminating with a massive flood in 1938 that destroyed almost 50 miles of track and ultimately led to abandonment. No, flash floods in Death Valley are just part of the climatology of the desert.
Quoting 308. CaneFreeCR:

A bit wet here in the mountains of eastern Costa Rica -- my Vantage VUE says 9.8 inches in the past 24 hours. Some infrastructure damage: the main bridge between me and the city of Turrialba is closed due to erosion around the center support pillar. I hope the other two, which are weight-limited for the larger trucks, won't get hurt too. I need to go shopping tomorrow.
When it rains in the tropics, it really rains. I was in Honduras when it started to rain like it usually does, except this time it didn't stop. Rained hard for almost 24 hours straight. Every bridge on our route back to Tegucigalpa was damaged or destroyed. The closest weather station measured a little over 14 inches although I suspect it was closer to 16 inches where I was at. I hope your other two bridges hold and you can get your shopping done.
Quoting 318. Xyrus2000:



This is something that for some reason deniers just don't get. No one wants global warming to be real. I certainly don't, and I'm pretty no one else does either. However, the scientific evidence of it's existence is overwhelming.

I don't read climate science research because I'm looking to validate my position. I read them to find flaws. I'm looking for any potential oversight that could possibly show that things won't be as bad as projected. I'm looking for errors that would show that we actually have a longer time horizon to deal with the problems.

Unfortunately I lack the capability to believe in magic, fairy tales, or whatever it is that deniers use to help them sleep at night. Science needs to counter science, and so far not a single denier has provided anything even remotely close to scientifically invalidating global warming.

Do you know how aggravating and disappointing it is to want someone to reveal the big mistake in climate science, only to be faced with half-baked nonsense, excel graphs, and conspiracy theories? Who needs science to disprove climate research anyway when you have the vast liberal NWO takeover of the world so they can marry gay aliens and force everyone to eat grape-nuts and wear rainbow clothing...or something.



Indeed. The last thing I think of is that I belong to some kind of "party". Many of the people here who also understand the science are on the opposite side of the political spectrum from me. I wouldn't be hanging out having a beer with them. Regardless, climate change is going to affect us all, right or left, and to just deny it's going to happen won't stop it. Like you, I spent a lot of time tearing apart studies looking for what I thought were the inevitable flaws. Unfortunately for my views, the more I did that, the more I couldn't find those flaws. At some point, I had to admit science trumped my view of what I wanted to be true. All deniers will eventually understand what climate change means. I just wish some of them could understand before it becomes a global emergency.
Quoting 304. LAbonbon:

@beell - you got me with that one...but I don't know about your taste in music...
Bonnie, Google "rickrolling". This has been going on for a long time now. That's why that video has 129 million views. :-)
I noticed that St. Pete had a low of 61F this past morning. That is VERY unusual and must have felt quite chilly.
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:

Here is the radar image of the storm that stalled over my area yesterday evening dropping excessive rains. Storm sat here for nearly an hour before dropping SE with momentum. This storm was a result of several boundary collisions that occurred right over the Apopka/Wekiva area.




Quite remarkable Scott. I believe your reported rainfall total. It can happen if you are in the right place at the right time. The most I have ever recorded from summer thunderstorm activity on a single occasion is between 4-5". Rainless here today.
Quoting 329. HurrMichaelOrl:
I noticed that St. Pete had a low of 61F this past morning. That is VERY unusual and must have felt quite chilly.

What station was it? This station looked pretty normal for St. Petersburg.

Never mind I found it. How unusual!
332. emguy
If ya'll want to see some weather...with tornado sirens going...I captured this here in Overland Park, Kansas tonight (Kansas City Suburb). We got 3 cells and this part of the weather felt kindergarten level compared to what we were getting. The metro got widespread 5 inches in about an hour, which in many ways is more significant than getting that much that fast in Florida. Having grown up and spent 30 some years in Florida, I've found that while thunderstorms there are still very interesting...it's very minor league compared to what happens here. This is where storms truely happen. Anyhow, have a look if you'd like.

Link
Without checking any official records, it seems unusual, for the valley itself in the summer. The desert monsoon showers usually get blocked by the arrangement of the surrounding ranges. I've heard about record snowmelt in the adjacent mountains flooding out the valley during the spring, enough to create a temporary lake, and subsequent riotous flowering, but not in summer. But maybe I'm wrong.

Quoting 325. sar2401:

Not unheard of at all. That's why there are signs everywhere warning motorists in Death Valley about flash flood down the normally dry washes. As you can see by the rain amounts in the warning, it doesn't take a huge amount of rain to get the washes running bank to bank. I'd have to look up the date, but sometime back in the 90's there was a prolonged series of these events during the monsoon that washed out almost every road in Death Valley, and the park was mostly closed for a month. There used to be a railroad called the Tonopah and Tidewater that ran to Death Valley Junction and Beatty. Their tracks and roadbed were washed out by flash flood multiple times in the 30's, culminating with a massive flood in 1938 that destroyed almost 50 miles of track and ultimately led to abandonment. No, flash floods in Death Valley are just part of the climatology of the desert.
G'morning, all!

Quick question; how many of you are familiar with the Jim Lushine theory? If you live in Southeast Florida, you better know what I'm talking about.

Thank you!
Quoting 333. BaltimoreBrian:

61 in St. Petersburg would be more than unusual. It would be a monthly record.

Sarasota has been even cooler in July.


I wonder how. It was 71 here last night but maybe ST. Pete had some of this cold air from aloft get brought down from a thunderstorm downdraft as 500mb temps have been hovering in the -9C to -10C range which is much cooler than average for July hence the hail reports especially across SW FL lately.
Quoting 330. HurrMichaelOrl:



Quite remarkable Scott. I believe your reported rainfall total. It can happen if you are in the right place at the right time. The most I have ever recorded from summer thunderstorm activity on a single occasion is between 4-5". Rainless here today.


Before that I only had .70 over the course of like 8 or 9 days. Then finally it was my turn.
Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



Before that I only had .70 over the course of like 8 or 9 days. Then finally it was my turn.


Can't sleep, Scott? You rise and shine at 6am, yet, it's 1am and you're still blogging on a weather forum?

Just looking out for ya, man.
In July Death Valley's rainiest day was July 26, 1954 with 0.75". The last time 0.5" fell in a day in July was July 20, 1969, the day of the moon landing. That doesn't mean flash flooding couldn't sweep down from the mountains though.
Quoting 336. StormTrackerScott:

I wonder how. It was 71 here last night but maybe ST. Pete had some of this cold air from aloft get brought down from a thunderstorm downdraft as 500mb temps have been hovering in the -9C to -10C range which is much cooler than average for July hence the hail reports especially across SW FL lately.

I think the readings are in error. I note that the Tampa weather page makes no mention of a record low at St. Pete or anywhere.
We just had a heavy thunderstorm a short time ago in Kingston, Jamaica. The rains started 11:10 P.m. The rain and thunderstorm also started earlier in St.Thomas. St. Thomas in the space of 30 minutes recorded 22.5 millimeters of rain.
Nangka has become an impressive cyclone today and appears just under the Category 4 threshold. It's a race between Chan-hom and Nangka to see which one will reach super typhoon status first, and for now, the latter is winning.



Saved for posterity:

The last time we had rain in Kingston was on May 30, 2015
StormTrackerScott needs to move to the Dust Bowl ;)

Begin
July 9, 1998 in LaBelle FL appears to have the coolest reading anywhere in central or southern FL in July. 58
Quoting 343. wetrain:
The last time we had rain in Kingston was on May 30, 2015

Nigel20 is another wunderblogger from Jamaica
Unreal a massive spike on the July update of the Poama model by the Aussies on the July update. Likely hood of a Super El-Nino is very real now as another model has joined the party.



Tropical cyclone activity may boost El Niño

Issued on 7 July 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño will persist until at least the end of 2015. Models also indicate that further warming is likely. Historically, El Niño reaches peak strength during late spring or early summer.

El Niño is typically associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country during the second half of the year. However, the strength of El Niño does not always determine the strength of its effect on Australia's climate. Read more about how El Niño might affect Australia.

Many other factors, such as the state of the Indian Ocean, also influence Australia's climate. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, three suggest a positive IOD is likely during the southern hemisphere spring. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.

Weekly sea surface temperatures

Over the past fortnight, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have continued to increase in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Warm anomalies extend along the equator from the South American coastline to just west of the Date Line, with anomalies for the week ending 5 July in excess of +2 °C in much of the eastern equatorial Pacific, reaching more than +3 °C in small areas.

All five NINO indices again exceeded +1 °C this week, and NINO1 NINO2 and NINO3 are all at their warmest sustained weekly value since the 1997–98 El Niño.

Warm anomalies persist across most of the northeast of the Pacific Basin, extending down the western coastline of North America and into South America. Warm anomalies are also present along the east coast of Australia, in areas to Australia's west, and across much of the Indian Ocean.
The average now by all the models used by the Aussie's is near 2.4C which would just surpass the 1997 El-Nino. This isn't just some one random model anymore forecasting this now its nearly all of them.

July update is in full force. Going to be a lot of disgruntled bloggers on here later today when they see this update.


NINO3.4 outlook

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in June) indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue to warm throughout the winter and spring months. The average of the model forecasts for September is just above 2.0 C, increasing to 2.3 C by November. NINO3.4 values of this magnitude have only been observed on a handful of occasions since 1980; during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events. Individual model output ranges between 1.6 C and 2.8 C for November; all well above the El Nino threshold.


The most recent NINO3.4 value is 1.3 C for the week ending 14 June 2015. NINO3.4 values above 0.8 C typically occur during El Nino events.

The following graph shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Nina. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Nino.
5-day sub-surface temperatures

The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 5 July shows temperatures are warmer than average in the top 100 m of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific and are slightly cooler than average below the surface of the ocean in the far western equatorial Pacific. Water in far eastern Pacific sub-surface is very much warmer than average, with anomalies around 75 m depth reaching more than 6 °C warmer than average.

Compared to two weeks ago, warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific sub-surface have contracted and strengthened, while cool anomalies in the west have weakened
Quoting 348. StormTrackerScott:

The average now by all the models used by the Aussie's is near 2.4C which would just surpass the 1997 El-Nino. This isn't just some one random model anymore forecasting this now its nearly all of them.

July update is in full force. Going to be a lot of disgruntled bloggers on here later today when they see this update. LOL! Again crow is ready to be fed cafeteria style.


Oh my god Scott. We get it, the El Nino is intensifying. You don't have to post the same thing every hour.
Quoting 350. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh my god Scott. We get it, the El Nino is intensifying. You don't have to post the same thing every hour.
And, I might add, they are models for November, four months from now. They may or may not prove out. I believe the idea of serving crow comes after an actual event, not when there are models showing it might happen.
Quoting 344. BaltimoreBrian:

StormTrackerScott needs to move to the Dust Bowl ;)

Begin
I had surprising low of 67 last night. It appears the low that was anchoring the trough pumped some cooler and dries air down here as it move NE. Still hit a high of 94 though, and I only get hotter as the week goes on.
Quoting 339. BaltimoreBrian:

In July Death Valley's rainiest day was July 26, 1954 with 0.75". The last time 0.5" fell in a day in July was July 20, 1969, the day of the moon landing. That doesn't mean flash flooding couldn't sweep down from the mountains though.
You have to understand that there are very few reporting stations in Death Valley, and none in the highest mountains, where the heaviest rains fall. The highest rainfall was probably on the order of two inches, but it wasn't recorded. It's the heavy rains over the mountains that cause the flash flooding in the valley.
Quoting 335. MeteorlogicaPrick:

G'morning, all!

Quick question; how many of you are familiar with the Jim Lushine theory? If you live in Southeast Florida, you better know what I'm talking about.

Thank you!
It's bunk - This is the response from Robert Molleda of the Miami NWS about this "theory" :

Per Mr. Molleda:
(1) Jim Lushine used rainfall data from Miami, Ft Lauderdale, and Palm Beach International Airports for his study.

(2) Jim Lushine told him that rain amounts favorable for SFL hurricanes were either one or two standard deviations below average, or something around 1” for the month of May.

(3) Robert said there have been correlation studies and these studies couldn’t come up with a strong correlation between dry Mays and SFL landfall. Thus, they discounted this theory until they can do a more thorough analysis area wide.
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ------------------
The theory was busted in 2008, MIA reported @1.58" of rain in May (Average 5.5") and no SFL hurricanes. Believe what you want but Lushine's theory hasn't shown any statistically significant correlation.
Quoting 338. MeteorlogicaPrick:



Can't sleep, Scott? You rise and shine at 6am, yet, it's 1am and you're still blogging on a weather forum?

Just looking out for ya, man.
You just joined up because you want to look out for Scott? I have the feeling you've been here before.
Quoting 334. BayFog:

Without checking any official records, it seems unusual, for the valley itself in the summer. The desert monsoon showers usually get blocked by the arrangement of the surrounding ranges. I've heard about record snowmelt in the adjacent mountains flooding out the valley during the spring, enough to create a temporary lake, and subsequent riotous flowering, but not in summer. But maybe I'm wrong.


Death Valley gets some flash flooding almost every year when the monsoon starts. It's the rain dumping in those mountains that causes the flash floods in the valley. It's not uncommon to have a flash flood and no rain at all at places like Furnace Creek. Some are worse than others. This article about the flash flooding in August, 2013 is just one example. There are many more on the web.
Quoting 356. sar2401:

Death Valley gets some flash flooding almost every year when the monsoon starts. It's the rain dumping in those mountains that causes the flash floods in the valley. It's not uncommon to have a flash flood and no rain at all at places like Furnace Creek. Some are worse than others. This article about the flash flooding in August, 2013 is just one example. There are many more on the web.


A very bizarre thing to witness when it floods, yet you have had no rain. I get that it "came from the mountains" too just is still weird to see.

Atlantic still looks shut down... Wish it was October already in that respect.
358. vis0


▬8.
sar2401
Quoting 1. vis0:
Thank you Dr Masters..is someone awake watching this...
CREDIT:: NOAA, COD
IMAGERY:: Though it reads IR, it includes 3 SAT types blended+visX filtered therefore not a purely COD product
D&T:: on aniGIF
SUBJECT::
i would sound the Grothar alka seltzer+geritol alert but at 2AM lets wait till 7AM EDT...alka selzter+Geritol alert??? its the sound of
effervescence with a slight passing of ...you guessed it
image host

Those are just convective leftovers. The east coast front is too weak to have
a tail end low develop. Dry air is going to eat the one over the Gulf for lunch. I don't see any kind of threat there.



▬ ▬109. vis0
Quoting 8. sar2401:


Those are just convective leftovers. The east coast front is too weak to have a tail end low develop. Dry air is going to eat the one over the
Gulf for lunch. I don't see any kind of threat there.



hi SAR i AM the STORM you JUST commented 'BOUT, who ASKED you TO reply TO vis0.



LOOK what YOU did YOU even ANSWERED the VIS0 comment INCORRECTLY, i AM now BEING eaten FOR breakfast.



why THE typing STYLE?

Do you KNOW how HARD it IS to TYPE when YOUR life REVOLVES around AN
updraft PLUS i'm USING islander's KEYBOARD islander10?, THREW away



▬ ▬ ▬113. sar2401Quoting 109. vis0:

hi SAR i AM the STORM you JUST commented 'BOUT, who ASKED you TO reply TO vis0.

LOOK what YOU did YOU even ANSWERED the VIS0 comment INCORRECTLY, i AM now BEING eaten FOR breakfast.

why THE typing STYLE?
Do
you KNOW how HARD it IS to TYPE when YOUR life REVOLVES around AN updraft PLUS i'm USING islander's KEYBOARD islander10?, THREW away


Well, STORM, sometimes it's lunch and sometimes it's brunch. Go take a nap,
do some pushups when you wake up, and get ready for a better day.Unfortunately for me, your nemesis, Mr. HIGH, is going to be paying
me a visit again. My days of some rain and cooler weather will rapidly be coming to an end. I'm glad to see you were able to fix the spacebar
on Islander's old keyboard but it looks like you messed up the SHIFT key in the process. :-)

HI sar2401 remember ME, STORM, i was DRYEE's BIG breakfast THE other DAY, guess WHAT ? no NO i WASN'T foop'D, dryee THREW up DOWN...no UP is CORRECT.
i GOT so HIGH up INTO the ATMOSPHERE and SPUN so MUCH i'm NOW part OF an ULL.

  THAT'S me WAVING, i'm NOW in THOSE ull CLOUDS sw of FLORIDA. i'm BLENDING with WETEENA, we're HITCHING up AND might HAVE our HONEYNOON over STS, we'll TRY to KEEP the RUMBLING to A minimum.


BTW sar2401 IF you WANT rain OVER your AREA i THINK removing THIS wanted POSTER

might HELP, my COUSINS the CLOUDS
do NOT understand THAT you WANT rain. THEY think YOU want THEM dead OR alive .

OH well BACK to CHECKING out THE webnet ON the STELLAR to STELLAR servers.

vis0:: ...i'll be autographing my latest novel "u think yer krazy, i'mmm, CRAZY" at Bellevue's lobby from 2:30AM till i'm chased out.

BACK TO OBSERVING THE WEATHER and stay TUNED to NOAA RADIO
359. vis0

Quoting 205. washingtonian115:

Why would someone want a super el nino?
Esta wash115 esta loca?

Cualquiera persona quiere un Super Niño, puede jugar pelota, baloncesto, hasta hacer El Presidente de los Estados Unidos y jasta ser el nuevo animador de Sabado Gigante!!!

...que???...



This was brought to you by GOYA, Si es GOYA, tiene que ser 1.99.
BACK TO WEATHER and getting riled up over something named after a person that is to represent peace...reminds ya of how some battles begin?
Good morning guys. Another hot day in the making and in the evening I'm awaiting what will happen in the red cone (see below) where I'm in ... Hopefully some rain, please, as the hydrological balance of 2015 is way too dry so far!



Excerpt from the current storm forecast of Estofex:
A level 2 was issued for parts of Germany, Switzerland and France, W Czech Republic, W Poland mainly for the damaging wind gusts, large and very large hail, excessive precipitation and in the lesser extent for the tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS: A cold front belonging to the trough over Ireland will enter W Europe. During the forecast period the trough will move towards Scandinavia and bring polar air mass to Central Europe. Another trough placed over Finland and Russia will weaken during the day but provide conditions for thunderstorms over these area. Ridge with tropical warm and moist air mass extends from Spain up to Austria. Most of the SW, S and SE Europe is covered with strongly capped tropical air mass where the CI is not likely. Jet streak with winds up to 50 m/s on the 300 hPa level extends from the Ireland, N France and Germany up to the Baltic Sea. This jet will overlap over parts of Central Europe with high boundary layer's moisture and thermodynamic instability thus providing favorable conditions for the severe weather outbreak. A shortwave is predicted by NWP models to pass during the forecast period through France, Benelux, Germany and Poland. ...

More details see link above.


Low "Thompson" with its forerunning shortwave. Source: weather live report on wetteronline.
Tokyo readies for the rise of the 'guerrilla rainstorm'
The Guardian, Philip Brasor and Masako Tsubuku, Tuesday 7 July 2015 07.00 BST
Japan's capital may be known for its earthquake resilience strategies, but a recent increase in intense, sudden storms poses another threat - one that the city's flood protection systems may not be able to manage
When people speak of natural disasters in Tokyo, they usually mean the major earthquake that seismologists say will eventually strike the Japanese capital. But for the local government, weather-related disasters are as much if not more of an immediate worry. The city's coastal location puts it in the path of the Asia-Pacific region's most violent typhoons - and there has been a measurable increase in the strength of rainstorms in recent years.
Tokyo's rainfall in 2014 was about 20% above normal, but the kind of storms that have struck the capital lately are different than they were in the past. Many are caused by huge cumulus clouds that form quickly and in succession when moist air from the ocean comes up against the warm air trapped among tall, closely packed buildings. Locally, these sudden, intense downpours are called "guerrilla" storms, because they seem to attack out of nowhere. ...

Whole article see link above.

INTERVIEW - Hit by drought and seawater, Bangkok tap water may run out in a month
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 7 Jul 2015 00:01 GMT, Author: Alisa Tang
BANGKOK, July 7 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Bangkok's tap water supply may run out in a month, as the country waits for long overdue rains to replenish sources depleted by drought and threatened by seawater creep, the chief of the capital's water authority said.
Thailand is suffering its worst drought in more than a decade. In an effort to maintain water levels in the dams that supply water for agriculture in the provinces as well as taps in the capital Bangkok, the government has asked farmers to refrain from planting rice since last October. ...


BTW, drought conditions in Sao Paulo/Brazil didn't lessen the last weeks and months:
Sao Paulo: Worries Grow as Serious Drought Grips Brazil's Largest City
NBC, Jul 1 2015, 10:51 am ET, by Marguerite Ward
The Tampa Bay Rays-Kansas City Royals game yesterday was postponed due to torrential rain and some tornado warnings in the area. Here is an amazing video of the dugout steps turning into a waterfall.
Link
Quoting 350. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh my god Scott. We get it, the El Nino is intensifying. You don't have to post the same thing every hour.


The obsession is out OOC.
Quoting 364. tampabaymatt:

The Tampa Bay Rays-Kansas City Royals game yesterday was postponed due to torrential rain and some tornado warnings in the area. Here is an amazing video of the dugout
steps turning into a waterfall.
Link
Quoting 364. tampabaymatt:

The Tampa Bay Rays-Kansas City Royals game yesterday was postponed due to torrential rain and some tornado warnings in the area. Here is an amazing video of the dugout steps turning into a waterfall.
Link


Now that was pretty cool.
A bit of a change here- starting to look increasingly likely that Chan-hom will not make landfall in China. Looks like China will borrow the US East Coast trough, and probably send what's left of the storm towards South Korea or Japan. However, if the trough is a bit slow or Chan-hom comes in a bit fast, more impact could still occur in China. Interestingly, as JTWC notes, the GFS ensemble is in great agreement on the turn, but the operational GFS still pushes it west. ECMWF and its ensembles show a similar pattern.





FWIW, the storm continues to underperform. While Nangka fixed its dry air problem yesterday, Chan-hom did not fix its heavily south-weighted structure. Not quite sure what's hurting it.

368. MahFL
Quoting 336. StormTrackerScott:



I wonder how. It was 71 here last night but maybe ST. Pete had some of this cold air from aloft get brought down from a thunderstorm downdraft as 500mb temps have been hovering in the -9C to -10C range which is much cooler than average for July hence the hail reports especially across SW FL lately.


Yesterday it was 69F here in Orange Park, which is pretty cool for a July morning here, it was humid though @ 81% humidity.
An excerpt from the Aussie's July 7th update. I all I got to say is there it is folks.

NINO3.4 outlook

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in June) indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue to warm throughout the winter and spring months. The average of the model forecasts for September is just above 2.0 C, increasing to 2.3 C by November. NINO3.4 values of this magnitude have only been observed on a handful of occasions since 1980; during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events. Individual model output ranges between 1.6 C and 2.8 C for November; all well above the El Nino threshold.
Quoting 368. MahFL:



Yesterday it was 69F here in Orange Park, which is pretty cool for a July morning here, it was humid though @ 81% humidity.


Little cool this morning too. Must be a result of cold air from aloft being brought down from these strong afternoon/evening thunderstorms as 500mb temps have been colder than average lately.
A 3rd Downwelling Kelvin Wave is quickly organizing near the Dateline as a result of the strongest WWB on record. Notice how the warm anomalies are being tilted downward @ 180W

Quoting 370. StormTrackerScott:



Little cool this morning too. Must be a result of cold air from aloft being brought down from these strong afternoon/evening thunderstorms as 500mb temps have been colder than average lately.


We bottomed out @ 69 in SWFL also just before sunrise. Not that I was awake for any of it.. Liking the rains since the 5th.
Quoting 340. BaltimoreBrian:



I think the readings are in error. I note that the Tampa weather page makes no mention of a record low at St. Pete or anywhere.


Yesterday morning (5am) it was 73 degrees in Fort Pierce- the coolest morning in along time.
Quoting 372. FrostyNaples:



We bottomed out @ 69 in SWFL also just before sunrise. Not that I was awake for any of it.. Liking the rains since the 5th.


What gets me is SE FL. The difference between SW FL & SE FL is extreme. Some areas of SW FL have seen 20" to 25" of rain since June 1st while SE FL like Miami only 1" to 2" if that in many cases.

Quoting 373. rmbjoe1954:



Yesterday morning (5am) it was 73 degrees in Fort Pierce- the coolest morning in along time.


I could be wrong but I am willing to be this upper trough out in the Gulf adding colder air aloft which is generating very vigorous thunderstorms in the afternoons is tapping some of this colder air at 500mb and driving it down to the surface once the thunderstorms collapse.

Quoting 333. BaltimoreBrian:

61 in St. Petersburg would be more than unusual. It would be a monthly record.

Sarasota has been even cooler in July.
This is from Tampa NWS:



The 61 for St. Pete/Clearwater certainly stands out as something that would be not just a monthly record low--beating out 1942's 63 by two degrees--but indicative of a 30-degree daily swing, practically unheard of with a tropical air mass in place. There's no mention of a record on either their Twitter feed or Facebook page, so who knows?
Quoting 365. Bucsboltsfan:



The obsession is out OOC.
Hi Bucsboltsfan, what happens when this Nino is over, come this winter, and we start the process of a La Nina occurring next summer, maybe not a super Nina until 2017, but it will be an interesting time for sure.
High Resolution Satellite-based OISSTv2 Oceanic Nino Index Data w/ the new 1986-2015 base period, now updated through AMJ 2015. This dataset has been consistently running about .15C warmer than ERSSTv4, and I personally prefer it over most sets for real-time ENSO monitoring...

Quoting 359. vis0:


Esta wash115 esta loca?

Cualquiera persona quiere un Super Niño, puede jugar pelota, baloncesto, hasta hacer El Presidente de los Estados Unidos y jasta ser el nuevo animador de Sabado Gigante!!!

...que???...



This was brought to you by GOYA, Si es GOYA, tiene que ser 1.99.
BACK TO WEATHER and getting riled up over something named after a person that is to represent peace...reminds ya of how some battles begin?

lol Viso I'm not crazy is just that the last Super el nino was not very friendly to some parts of the world back in 97.1996 was a wet year here in D.C and then 1997 brought more rain here.I haven't seen anything like it since then.
381. bwi
Good morning from tropical Maryland.
Quoting 381. bwi:

Good morning from tropical Maryland.
I went on my morning run and it is very humid outside.We can sustain tropical plants in the summer,but they won't survive the fall and winter.


06z GFS
Quoting 380. washingtonian115:

lol Viso I'm not crazy is just that the last Super el nino was not very friendly to some parts of the world back in 97.1996 was a wet year here in D.C and then 1997 brought more rain here.I haven't seen anything like it since then.


It's not being very friendly now across the World.
Quoting 378. NativeSun:

Hi Bucsboltsfan, what happens when this Nino is over, come this winter, and we start the process of a La Nina occurring next summer, maybe not a super Nina until 2017, but it will be an interesting time for sure.
This El Nino probably won't get cranked up until late fall or early winter and should last through next summer. If it really turns out to be a very strong El Nino, the effects could last for all of next year. There's no certainty a La Nina will follow in any case.
Good Morning.  Yes, the dead of Summer for most of Conus today: 
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:



What gets me is SE FL. The difference between SW FL & SE FL is extreme. Some areas of SW FL have seen 20" to 25" of rain since June 1st while SE FL like Miami only 1" to 2" if that in many cases.




20/25"??!!

Where about? Not in Naples. The airport is still 1" behind average since June 1st.

At my house 12 miles away, even less.

Sure we don't compare to the east coast, wishing them more rain, but we don't have these high values you mention.
In other weather news, nothing is happening Alabama. No lightning, no thunder, no rain, and no clouds anywhere in the state. A combination of dry air and general wimpiness allowed the trough that was over us all week to be dragged east with barely a whimper. Now the Bermuda High is building westward as a five to seven day period of dry weather and much above normal temperatures return. The cooler weather and some rain was nice while it lasted. The 6-10 day outlook is perfect if you live in the Southeast and like hot weather.

Quoting 384. StormTrackerScott:



It's not being very friendly now across the World.
Nothing never repeats its self in the exact same manner.
NAPLES, FL
COLLIER County, Coop ID: 86078
Elevation: 5 ft.
Latitude: 26° 10' N Longitude: 81° 42' W NOAA Online Weather Data

Three Category Temperature Outlook: Jul-Aug-Sep 2015




I reckon it'll be a bit above average as well. Not sure where it gets the 83.6 base line for 'normal' - usually normal peaks around 92 in the summer here.

Quoting 350. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh my god Scott. We get it, the El Nino is intensifying. You don't have to post the same thing every hour.


That's not how monomania works!
Quoting 387. FrostyNaples:



20/25"??!!

Where about? Not in Naples. The airport is still 1" behind average since June 1st.

At my house 12 miles away, even less.

Sure we don't compare to the east coast, wishing them more rain, but we don't have these high values you mention.

Here's what Melbourne NWS has to say. This probably doesn't include any insane totals in Apopka.

.RAINFALL...

ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWED THE SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND MOST DAYS EARLY
IN JUNE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY FORMING EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS USUALLY FELL OVER
THE INTERIOR OR TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. AN EXCEPTION WAS
ON THE 10TH WHEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH BOTH
MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH BREAKING THEIR RAINFALL RECORDS FOR THE
DAY. PRECIPITATION DECREASED DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE MONTH
AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT SUPPRESSED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENED AND A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTED LATER IN THE MONTH...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO LOWER
THAN NORMAL. SOME OF THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...UP TO 4
TO 5 INCHES...OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. IN FACT STUART HAD
THEIR DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD ONLY RECEIVING 1.83 INCHES FOR THE MONTH.

DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH:

ORLANDO:
-JUNE 26TH: RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.54 INCHES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 2.42
INCHES SET IN 1999.

MELBOURNE:
-JUNE 10TH: RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.50 INCHES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.35
INCHES SET IN 1975.

VERO BEACH:
-JUNE 10TH: RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.12 INCHES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.75
INCHES SET IN 1997.


JUNE 2015 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN
THE TOP 10):

-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 5.39 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
0.44 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 6.79 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS 0.79
INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 6.25 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
0.46 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 4.91 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
1.76 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

COOPERATIVE OBSERVER STATION RAINFALL RANKINGS:

-STUART ONLY RECEIVED 1.83 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH, WHICH
RANKED AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 1.89 INCHES SET IN 1981. RECORDS FOR STUART GO BACK TO
1936.

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR JUNE
2015:

STATION JUNE 2015 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL RAINFALL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 5.39" 5.83" -0.44" 92%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 6.79" 7.58" -0.79" 90%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 6.25" 6.71" -0.46" 93%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 4.91" 6.67" -1.76" 74%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 6.26" 8.32" -2.06" 75%
(CLRF1)
LEESBURG 7.04" 8.06" -1.02" 87%
(KLEE)
DELAND 4.00" 8.14" -4.14" 49%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 7.42" 7.28" +0.14" 102%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE 7.32" 6.60" +0.72" 111%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE 3.32" 7.37" -4.05" 45%
(KFPR)
STUART 1.83" 7.14" -5.31" 26%
(STRF1)
Quoting 390. FrostyNaples:

NAPLES, FL
COLLIER County, Coop ID: 86078
Elevation: 5 ft.
Latitude: 26° 10' N Longitude: 81° 42' W NOAA Online Weather Data

Three Category Temperature Outlook: Jul-Aug-Sep 2015




I reckon it'll be a bit above average as well. Not sure where it gets the 83.6 base line for 'normal' - usually normal peaks around 92 in the summer here.


"Normal" refers to the average daily temperature--that is, the daily high plus the daily low divided by two...
Quoting 390. FrostyNaples:

NAPLES, FL
COLLIER County, Coop ID: 86078
Elevation: 5 ft.
Latitude: 26° 10' N Longitude: 81° 42' W NOAA Online Weather Data

Three Category Temperature Outlook: Jul-Aug-Sep 2015




I reckon it'll be a bit above average as well. Not sure where it gets the 83.6 base line for 'normal' - usually normal peaks around 92 in the summer here.



My guess is that 83.6 is the average temp
Quoting 390. FrostyNaples:

NAPLES, FL
COLLIER County, Coop ID: 86078
Elevation: 5 ft.
Latitude: 26° 10' N Longitude: 81° 42' W NOAA Online Weather Data

Three Category Temperature Outlook: Jul-Aug-Sep 2015




I reckon it'll be a bit above average as well. Not sure where it gets the 83.6 base line for 'normal' - usually normal peaks around 92 in the summer here.


I think that's average temperature for the day.
Quoting 393. Neapolitan:

"Normal" refers to the average daily temperature--that is, the daily high plus the daily low divided by two...


That makes more sense, so it's not the daily high.. Thx.
Typhoon Chan-hom

Typhoon Chan-hom
Last Updated Jul 7, 2015 06 GMT
Location 18.3N 136.4E Movement WNW
Wind 90 MPH
StormTrackerScott, I'm just as excited about this el nino as you are. Please continue to post updates pertaining to the development of this enormous phenomenon despite others' discontent. I know you're not the only one who keeps up with it, but you seem to get a bad rap often. I actually obtain a good deal of my information from this blog due to time constraints and a sluggish internet connection. Of course, any opinions are taken with a grain of salt but actual dialog from forecasters and maps is genuinely appreciated. In fact, thanks to everyone here for posting illustrations, animations, and data to help satisfy my obsession with the weather.
Quoting 387. FrostyNaples:



20/25"??!!

Where about? Not in Naples. The airport is still 1" behind average since June 1st.

At my house 12 miles away, even less.

Sure we don't compare to the east coast, wishing them more rain, but we don't have these high values you mention.



Yes you do just inland from you location those areas have been getting whacked everyday since June 1st.

This is a week old image as i can't get the updated one to load but the latest image since June 1st has spots of 20" to 25" inland from Fort Myers & Naples.

June 1st thru June 26th below.
Quoting 398. Hazardousweather:

StormTrackerScott, I'm just as excited about this el nino as you are. Please continue to post updates pertaining to the development of this enormous phenomenon despite others' discontent. I know you're not the only one who keeps up with it, but you seem to get a bad rap often. I actually obtain a good deal of my information from this blog due to time constraints and a sluggish internet connection. Of course, any opinions are taken with a grain of salt but actual dialog from forecasters and maps is genuinely appreciated. In fact, thanks to everyone here for posting illustrations, animations, and data to help satisfy my obsession with the weather.


I think the problem is some come on here to complain about anything. It's like watching Grumpy Old Men sometimes on here.
I don't think some are going to handle very well what I am about to post. NMME updated and we had a big increase in values on the July update to 2.6C. Crazy!




maybe a new T.D soon
Quoting 403. StormTrackerScott:

I don't think some are going to handle very well what I am about to post. NMME updated and we had a big increase in values on the July update to 2.8C. Crazy!


maybe a 3.2 soon by august
Like I said Eric Webber is discounting the fact that we have the strongest WWB on record and the models are seeing this and forecasting the strong ENSO ever likely topping 1997 by a fairly good margin if this pans out. You can't say Spring Barrier now but I am sure someone will finad a way to dispute this update as being garbage just like every other update this year.
A MARINE has been attacked by a shark at Surf City NC. What in the world is going on? Id like to hear from Neo and Gro about what your takes are on all these shark attacks off NC coast. And anyone else also, of course.
Quoting 405. hurricanes2018:

maybe a 3.2 soon by august


The NMME mean went from 2.2 to 2.6 to 2.7C on the July update. That is pretty large upward swing. BOM came out to today with a 1.6C June update to 2.4C July update. These upward swings are very encouraging that the models are keying in on a Historic El-Nino in the making.

Bom had a massive spike upward this month.
I just really hope this isn't the end of the active era because if it is, it only lasted 15-16 years. The tropical atlantic ssts are well below average and have been for quite a few years now. not sure if this is the end of the positive AMO and a return to the negative AMO. Only time will tell but the last 3 seasons have been very telling.
Most means on the NMME ENSO plume are over 2C.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 3m3 minutes ago
Powerful WWB (on track for Jul record) reversing trades across the eq Pacific. Maps @TropicalTidbits #ElNino #climate
Quoting 378. NativeSun:

Hi Bucsboltsfan, what happens when this Nino is over, come this winter, and we start the process of a La Nina occurring next summer, maybe not a super Nina until 2017, but it will be an interesting time for sure.


wait, we're supposed to have an el nino this year? why didn't anybody tell me?!
Quoting 407. K8eCane:

A MARINE has been attacked by a shark at Surf City NC. What in the world is going on? Id like to hear from Neo and Gro about what your takes are on all these shark attacks off NC coast. And anyone else also, of course.


They are just trying to catch up to FL - Link
Quoting 367. MAweatherboy1:

Not quite sure what's hurting it.




Maybe it's Nangka?
Quoting 257. ackee:

H. B many more storm do guys think we see rest of the season ??

A 6
B 5
C 4
D 3
E 2
F o

F or E.

Quoting 403. StormTrackerScott:

I don't think some are going to handle very well what I am about to post. NMME updated and we had a big increase in values on the July update to 2.6C. Crazy!


So the lowest target is now about 1.8 C ONI based on what you just posted. When I asked you about 3 months ago where you think this el nino will peak, you answered 1.8 C ONI, but you changed your opinion and went on to predict a supel el nino. You could have stayed with your 1.8 C prediction and annoy lots of people who opposed you, but you actually risked it all and bet on a super el nino. No matter what anyone says, you are the man Scott.
Bull Sharks are typically the culprit in many of the coastal shark bites for parts of Florida and the SE coast and they are very aggressive. Will note that they like to hunt off of river mouths and outlets from Bays and like deeper troughs near shore to cruise and hunt. Also, many of their attacks often occur in murkier water conditions and if you have people swimming in these areas, with bait fish around as well, its a potential recepie for confusion and a shark bite.

You could not pay me to swim or wade fish in these types of areas and particularly after rains that sweep more sediment and murk up the waters. I like to wade fish and swim on beaches as far away from inlets as possible to help mitigate the potential for a Bull Shark attack.

Would have to know more about the location of this most recent attack, and water conditions, to see if it falls in line with my observation.
Will the mjo pulse come into the Atlantic.
Here's precip for the last 30 days for SW FL, so since 6/7/15 (don't know where to get a graphic that includes June 1 to present):


(Source)
The Sea is the Sharks Home, if you want a Bite, take a swim in their Hood.

Quoting 416. NoobDave:


So the lowest target is now about 1.8 C ONI based on what you just posted. When I asked you about 3 months ago where you think this el nino will peak, you answered 1.8 C ONI, but you changed your opinion and went on to predict a supel el nino. You could have stayed with your 1.8 C prediction and annoy lots of people who opposed you, but you actually risked it all and bet on a super el nino. No matter what anyone says, you are the man Scott.



Reason is Strongest WWB on record as well as the strongest MJO on record. We are going to see very warm water pile up across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. Difference between 1997 & now id the warmest anomalies are likely going to be across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 going forward.

Instead of international House of Pancakes it looks like it might be more like International House of Crowcakes on here.
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:



I think the problem is some come on here to complain about anything. It's like watching Grumpy Old Men sometimes on here.


O the sweet smell of Tuesday irony.

Try the Shark Fin soup, it is delicious.
Quoting 407. K8eCane:

A MARINE has been attacked by a shark at Surf City NC. What in the world is going on? Id like to hear from Neo and Gro about what your takes are on all these shark attacks off NC coast. And anyone else also, of course.
Three things. First, the hotter than normal weather over the last month or so have sent more people to the beach. Second, the hotter than normal weather has helped to heat up the Gulf Stream. Third, the warmer than normal Gulf Stream has allowed sharks to move north along the coast. The east coast has always been the top location for shark attacks in the world, but the number of shark attacks has been increasing each decade since 1900. It's some combination of more people in the water, the warmer nearshore water that some sharks like for hunting, and a decrease in shark fishing over the last 50 years, allowing the population to grow. The probability of a shark attack is still exceedingly low. There have been 11 attacks so far this year. Divide that tens of millions of people who flock to the beach and you're much more likely to be injured in a vehicle accident while driving to the beach than from a shark attack.
Quoting 364. tampabaymatt:

The Tampa Bay Rays-Kansas City Royals game yesterday was postponed due to torrential rain and some tornado warnings in the area. Here is an amazing video of the dugout steps turning into a waterfall.
Link

Matt, did you follow the link for the problems that occur with heavy rain in the Oakland Coliseum? Gross!
Quoting 421. StormTrackerScott:



Reason is Strongest WWB on record as well as the strongest MJO on record. We are going to see very warm water pile up across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. Difference between 1997 & now id the warmest anomalies are likely going to be across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 going forward.

Instead of international House of Pancakes it looks like it might be more like International House of Crowcakes on here.
Good morning Scott....Your comments have gone from scientific and informative to immature and content free....thats a bummer
Fires and smoke in northern Alaska

Aqua/MODIS
2015/187
07/06/2015
23:00 UTC

Link
Quoting 417. weathermanwannabe:

Bull Sharks are typically the culprit in many of the coastal shark bites for parts of Florida and the SE coast and they are very aggressive. Will note that they like to hunt off of river mouths and outlets from Bays and like deeper troughs near shore to cruise and hunt. Also, many of their attacks often occur in murkier water conditions and if you have people swimming in these areas, with bait fish around as well, its a potential recepie for confusion and a shark bite.

You could not pay me to swim or wade fish in these types of areas and particularly after rains that sweep more sediment and murk up the waters. I like to wade fish and swim on beaches as far away from inlets as possible to help mitigate the potential for a Bull Shark attack.

Would have to know more about the location of this most recent attack, and water conditions, to see if it falls in line with my observation.


Bull sharks have their young in the Indian River Lagoon. It's amazing what is found in the Lagoon off Fort Pierce inlet.
Quoting 426. ColoradoBob1:

Fires and smoke in northern Alaska

Aqua/MODIS
2015/187
07/06/2015
23:00 UTC

Link


Click on the world view and take a look @ Africa!
Quoting 389. washingtonian115:

Nothing never repeats its self in the exact same manner.
Exactly...Especially the El Nino.
Quoting 425. hydrus:

Good morning Scott....Your comments have gone from scientific and informative to immature and content free....thats a bummer


Maybe you missed all these bloggers post on here yesterday. Do you know the names I've been called on here and yet these people don't get banned but yet I say crowcakes and yet someone says its offensive. Come on! I have integrity and the way some on here talk about me really gets me uptight because I constantly prove my point time and time again and yet I still get attacked but that is ok.
Quoting 417. weathermanwannabe:

Bull Sharks are typically the culprit in many of the coastal shark bites for parts of Florida and the SE coast and they are very aggressive. Will note that they like to hunt off of river mouths and outlets from Bays and like deeper troughs near shore to cruise and hunt. Also, many of their attacks often occur in murkier water conditions and if you have people swimming in these areas, with bait fish around as well, its a potential recepie for confusion and a shark bite.

You could not pay me to swim or wade fish in these types of areas and particularly after rains that sweep more sediment and murk up the waters. I like to wade fish and swim on beaches as far away from inlets as possible to help mitigate the potential for a Bull Shark attack.

Would have to know more about the location of this most recent attack, and water conditions, to see if it falls in line with my observation.

Most shark attacks have occurred in the afternoon along the shoreline here. Knee to waist deep water.
Quoting 407. K8eCane:

A MARINE has been attacked by a shark at Surf City NC. What in the world is going on? Id like to hear from Neo and Gro about what your takes are on all these shark attacks off NC coast. And anyone else also, of course.
It's a combination of factors, as others have noted. It's been hotter earlier, and that draws sharks northward; there's been an ongoing drought, which means less freshwater flowing into the ocean and thus the higher salinity that sharks prefer; it's sea turtle hatching season; and so on. But the greatest factor is almost certainly that more people are, er, "enjoying" the beautiful Carolina beaches...

For the record, on an attacks-per-mile basis, Florida leads the world, with Volusia County (Daytona) topping the list. (Think Spring Break, Bike Week, etc.) However, fatal attacks are far more likely in the warm waters off Australia's east coast; in Florida, shark attacks are only fatal a little over 1% of the time, while off the coasts of Queensland and N.S.W., sharks kill nearly 28% of those they attack. Call it the Great White effect. To a lesser degree, the same goes for California, which has seen 1/7 the number of shark attacks Florida has, but roughly the same number of fatalities thanks to Great Whites, which tend not to nibble extremities so much as chomp torsos...
Linfa (60mph):



Chan-Hom (90mph):



Nangka (140mph):



Winds of climate change blast farmers’ hopes of sustaining a livelihood in Burkina Faso

Extreme climate events of drought, erratic rainfall and violent winds are destroying crops and worsening living standards


One afternoon towards the end of May a violent wind howled through Bogandé, the main town in Gnagna province, in eastern Burkina Faso. Raising a storm of dust and sand, it plunged the streets into semi-darkness, driving roaming goats crazy. In villages across Gnagna people connect these extreme climate events with deteriorating living standards. They explain how these increasingly frequent “red” winds wreak havoc, burying their crops in sand, destroying their homes, and spreading disease among their flocks.

In late May, on the great Gnagna plain, the earth is dry, with deep cracks. An occasional tree – usually red acacia (Vachellia seyal) – stands out as a patch of green. In the villages, most of the wells have dried up. It is the toughest part of the year, when reserves from the previous harvest run low and the next one is not yet ripe. And still there is no rain.

In 2014, just 538mm of rain fell here. Over the past 30 years, average annual rainfall has dropped by 200mm. “The Sahel climate zone is steadily spreading further south. Bogandé used to enjoy a Sudanese-Sahelian climate, but it is now borderline,” says Claire Gaillardou, head of the risks and disasters department at the Action Against Hunger (ACF) mission in Burkina Faso. “Since 1975 the [average] temperature has risen by 0.8C.”

Tnidano Tissa, 78, remembers how the village looked when he was a child. “There were great African mahogany, locust bean, fig and shi trees, all of which produced fruit. In the rainy season, long grass protected the ground. All year long there was a bit of plant cover. We’d see antelopes, big savannah monitors and hyenas,” he says, drawing a smile from the youngest members of his audience, who have never seen such creatures.

The plant cover has vanished, and trees are now a rarity. With diminishing rainfall, the soil is blown away by winds that grow ever more violent. “There are no longer any trees to slow them down,” says Lankoandé Diagnogou, 38, a neighbour of Tissa’s.

At Tindandou, 45km away, Diawari Barbibilé, 63, is equally desperate. “The loss of plant cover has speeded up soil degradation, and the rainy season is very short,” he says.

The rain comes later and is interspersed with long periods of drought. Across the region, rainfall is increasingly erratic and increasingly intense. The rain cuts into the ground and washes away the little humus – which is essential to the fertility of the earth – it contains.

“That, in turn, can cause flooding, because water has difficulty penetrating bone-dry earth. Some years the run-off rate can be as high as 40%,” Gaillardou explains. ACF is trying to help communities adapt to these extreme climate events, which seem to get steadily worse. Assistance involves learning farming techniques that keep the water in the soil and reduce the effects of erosion.

This year Barbibilé prepared three one-hectare fields, digging semi-circular hollows along the contour lines to trap as much rain as possible and create better conditions for sowing. He hopes this technique will yield a bigger crop.

Ten years ago, Barbibilé was still harvesting “five cartloads” of grain. “We could live very nicely on what I grew, and I could sell the surplus,” he says. “But in the last few years the soil has become so poor that I don’t have anything to sell. The two cartloads I bring home are barely enough to feed the family. The rest of the crop is only fit for cattle-feed.”

His 34-year-old son works with him now, and in all there are 16 mouths to feed. “The rain stops before the millet has even had time to fully ripen. If there’s no rain what you grow is worthless,” Barbibilé says. Due to the unpredictable rainfall he has had to give up the traditional crop of sorghum, which takes longer to ripen. He prefers to use white sorghum and pearl millet, with a shorter crop cycle.

In Burkina Faso in late May, as they waited anxiously for the next crop, more than 330,000 people faced food insecurity. In Gnagna province, with an average of seven people in each household, the situation is far worse than in the rest of the country. Farmers are producing less than half the food they need to survive. After four to six months their reserves run out. In the worst years, they have no option but to sell part or all of their livestock – if they have any – or run up debts.

“When we run short of food, we have to turn to one of our neighbours in the village who has sufficient resources to lend us food,” says André Dori, 38, who lives in Kongaye, in Gnagna province. Dori, who has four children, says he too can no longer meet his family’s needs. “These loans are in kind. With a 100% interest rate: for one sack of grain borrowed, I must pay back two. I am deep in debt, because my crops don’t ripen properly, due to the climate.” He has been unable to pay off any of his debts in recent years.

Dori hopes things will get better through the use of improved techniques. With more bountiful harvests, he says, he could feed his family and even buy livestock.

This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates material from Le Monde
Quoting 431. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe you missed all these bloggers post on here yesterday. Do you know the names I've been called on here and yet these people don't get banned but yet I say crowcakes and yet someone says its offensive. Come on! I have integrity and the way some on here talk about me really gets me uptight because I constantly prove my point time and time again and yet I still get attacked but that is ok.
They do that to see if you will react, and when you do, it gives them exactly what they want. I know sometimes you have no choice but to respond, but not responding would stop there attacks over time.
Scott with all due respect you've been forecasting the same thing since November 2013.If you know you're right it will show there is no need to say nothing more but don't go on the blog with prideful arrogant post shoving it in peoples faces because that'll turn people way off.
Quoting 436. hydrus:

They do that to see if you will react, and when you do, it gives them exactly what they want. I know sometimes you have no choice but to respond, but not responding would stop there attacks over time.
It would also help to tone down the rhetoric over models that are four months out as if they are reality. That kind of things is bound to get push back. What this El Nino will become will be abundantly clear by November. We already saw a big model flop last year. The same thing could happen this year. It's a good idea to keep all options open when you're doing long range forecasting.
Quoting 436. hydrus:

They do that to see if you will react, and when you do, it gives them exactly what they want. I know sometimes you have no choice but to respond, but not responding would stop there attacks over time.


Your absolutely right hydrus. I do that because i don't want to be called a fool and whatever else they call me. Its really mostly one guy Eric and if he disagrees that's fine but you don't have to attack me or talk down to me because you think you are smarter because your post are more verbose. It's ridiculous. Next time I'll just ignores these guys and let my work speak for itself.
Quoting 437. washingtonian115:

Scott with all due respect you've been forecasting the same thing since November 2013.If you know you're right it will show there is no need to say nothing more but don't go on the blog with prideful arrogant post shoving it in peoples faces because that'll turn people way off.


We'll you get called names by these guys and let me know how you react. Sometimes I do it in abundance to prove my point which gets thrashed on here. Whatever the case maybe I will try to do a better job.
Quoting 432. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Most shark attacks have occurred in the afternoon along the shoreline here. Knee to waist deep water.
Also around dawn. Dawn and twilight are the worst time to be wading in shallow water.Sharks have notoriously bad eyesight and are more apt to strike at any shape during the hours of poor light. Large crows at the beach can also be a prelude to an attack since sharks take all the splashing around as the sounds of wounded prey. As I wrote previously, the chances of being bitten by a shark are still exceeding small and shouldn't keep anyone away from the beach as long as they follow a few simple rules..
Quoting 420. Patrap:

The Sea is the Sharks Home, if you want a Bite, take a swim in their Hood.


It's also a case of "If you feed them they will come." We're training them to look for food where there's lots of it.
Quoting 55. HurrMichaelOrl:



That map gives a good general estimation of precipitation totals. My house in Winter Park actually ended up with a little less than 1.5" and the Executive airport got around 1 1/3". Both of these locations are depicted in the 2-3" color shading. So the map must be general in its depictions of rainfall totals or it cannot be viewed at a higher resolution or something.

Yeah, i got 1.74" and im in the 3-4"shading so something isn't right
Quoting 438. sar2401:

It would also help to tone down the rhetoric over models that are four months out as if they are reality. That kind of things is bound to get push back. What this El Nino will become will be abundantly clear by November. We already saw a big model flop last year. The same thing could happen this year. It's a good idea to keep all options open when you're doing long range forecasting.


i think the primary reason for the jibes and pushback is that STS feels the need to remind us of the el nino and what the models are showing literally every 30 seconds. we know, scott. our browsers work too.
Strong WWB now heading toward South America. Could see another dumping of flooding rains over the deserts of Chile soon as this burst approaches.

my two cents...aimed at all....and not at any one individual......nor at any one subject

when you're right...you're right

when you're wrong...you're wrong

when you're wrong...and you claim you're right...you're still wrong....

when you claim something will happen today...and it happens a week from now...you're still wrong

oops...forgot this one......

when you claim something as right that someone else said....they're right....not you
Quoting 431. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe you missed all these bloggers post on here yesterday. Do you know the names I've been called on here and yet these people don't get banned but yet I say crowcakes and yet someone says its offensive. Come on! I have integrity and the way some on here talk about me really gets me uptight because I constantly prove my point time and time again and yet I still get attacked but that is ok.


Scott

Although I find your constant hyping of El Nino tedious, at least you do back up your comments with data and not hype. In addition I think that someone who is as serious and diligent as yourself should get some respect. Please ignore those who are negative and stay positive.
Quoting 361. barbamz:

Tokyo readies for the rise of the 'guerrilla rainstorm'
The Guardian, Philip Brasor and Masako Tsubuku, Tuesday 7 July 2015 07.00 BST
Japan's capital may be known for its earthquake resilience strategies, but a recent increase in intense, sudden storms poses another threat - one that the city's flood protection systems may not be able to manage
When people speak of natural disasters in Tokyo, they usually mean the major earthquake that seismologists say will eventually strike the Japanese capital. But for the local government, weather-related disasters are as much if not more of an immediate worry. The city's coastal location puts it in the path of the Asia-Pacific region's most violent typhoons - and there has been a measurable increase in the strength of rainstorms in recent years.
Tokyo's rainfall in 2014 was about 20% above normal, but the kind of storms that have struck the capital lately are different than they were in the past. Many are caused by huge cumulus clouds that form quickly and in succession when moist air from the ocean comes up against the warm air trapped among tall, closely packed buildings. Locally, these sudden, intense downpours are called "guerrilla" storms, because they seem to attack out of nowhere. ...

Whole article see link above.

INTERVIEW - Hit by drought and seawater, Bangkok tap water may run out in a month
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 7 Jul 2015 00:01 GMT, Author: Alisa Tang
BANGKOK, July 7 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Bangkok's tap water supply may run out in a month, as the country waits for long overdue rains to replenish sources depleted by drought and threatened by seawater creep, the chief of the capital's water authority said.
Thailand is suffering its worst drought in more than a decade. In an effort to maintain water levels in the dams that supply water for agriculture in the provinces as well as taps in the capital Bangkok, the government has asked farmers to refrain from planting rice since last October. ...


BTW, drought conditions in Sao Paulo/Brazil didn't lessen the last weeks and months:
Sao Paulo: Worries Grow as Serious Drought Grips Brazil's Largest City
NBC, Jul 1 2015, 10:51 am ET, by Marguerite Ward


This was an excellent group of articles. Thanks for posting these.

In reading the article about Tokyo, a blog post came to mind. Does anyone recall a couple/few months ago there was a blog post that showed a world map with increases in precip per decade? I recall asking a question about it, and giving Japan as an example (the changes in precip there were remarkable). I recall Nea (I think) responding and Mr. Henson posting a clarification about the units and what they meant.

I tried to do a blog search using tags that I thought might have been used...but either I'm doing the search wrong, or the search function doesn't work. (I ultimately tried several commonly used tags like 'climate change', 'hurricane' and 'heat', but there were no results returned for any search I did.)

Short of going back through all the blog posts, any ideas?
Infact 20mm to 50mm of rain could fall across Central Chile around July 10th thru the 12th.


Notice the lower pressures coming into South America


Central Africa

Aqua/MODIS
2015/188
07/07/2015
11:50 UTC

Link
Locally, these sudden, intense downpours are called "guerrilla" storms, because they seem to attack out of nowhere. ...



Global Climate Change Indicators

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
James B. Elsner
‏@JBElsner
El Nino's influence on southeast U.S. tornadoes. Fewer, but stronger. Annual number (frq) vs upper quantile energy.
Freaky Algae Bloom in North Atlantic Looks Like Dead Zone Eddy

Back in March, we reported on a new study that found algae blooms concentrating in ocean eddies off Africa were generating mobile dead zones threatening sea life in the Tropical Atlantic. Based on recent satellite imagery analysis, such phenomena may not just be isolated to regions off the Ivory Coast and Gibraltar. It instead appears that mobile and potentially oxygen-depleting algae blooms may also be cropping up in the far North Atlantic.


Link
Quoting 454. ColoradoBob1:

Freaky Algae Bloom in North Atlantic Looks Like Dead Zone Eddy

Back in March, we reported on a new study that found algae blooms concentrating in ocean eddies off Africa were generating mobile dead zones threatening sea life in the Tropical Atlantic. Based on recent satellite imagery analysis, such phenomena may not just be isolated to regions off the Ivory Coast and Gibraltar. It instead appears that mobile and potentially oxygen-depleting algae blooms may also be cropping up in the far North Atlantic.


Link


This likely has something to do with that.

Ninos springing soon
When?
Its Springs In Summer
How can it be Spring In Summer?
(holds up a card which has 23 links showing Nino becoming stronger, just make sure that some of those cards have 2014 is crossed out as even some experts expected 2014 to be moderate, we had El Nino squeak strength)
see its late Summer and Nino sprung
Oh, so El Nino sprung during late summer
yes and next year when its to Fall it will spring again
HUH?, someone get me Dakster's vis0 bot-translator


the thing is...i understand you perfectly

Quoting 449. LAbonbon:


This was an excellent group of articles. Thanks for posting these.

In reading the article about Tokyo, a blog post came to mind. Does anyone recall a couple/few months ago there was a blog post that showed a world map with increases in precip per decade? I recall asking a question about it, and giving Japan as an example (the changes in precip there were remarkable). I recall Nea (I think) responding and Mr. Henson posting a clarification about the units and what they meant.

I tried to do a blog search using tags that I thought might have been used...but either I'm doing the search wrong, or the search function doesn't work. (I ultimately tried several commonly used tags like 'climate change', 'hurricane' and 'heat', but there were no results returned for any search I did.)

Short of going back through all the blog posts, any ideas?
The search here is worthless. You'll get better results using Google. Here's an article about using Google. You can set up a search that will always use WU as the operator and make it way easier to find things here. It's not perfect due to the way this site is constructed but it's better than the search function here.
Quoting 421. StormTrackerScott:



Reason is Strongest WWB on record as well as the strongest MJO on record. We are going to see very warm water pile up across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3. Difference between 1997 & now id the warmest anomalies are likely going to be across Nino 3.4 & Nino 3 going forward.

Instead of international House of Pancakes it looks like it might be more like International House of Crowcakes on here.
I am not sure where the "Strongest WWB on record" comes from. I do recall a tweet from Eric Blake that Scott quoted a while back which stated it is the strongest July WWB on record. I do not have the expertise to compare months, but it is my understanding that WWBs are a function of El Nino and it is unusual for El Nino to commence in early Summer. I wonder if the strongest July WWB is also the strongest ever on record, or just the strongest in July, which might be a good deal weaker than the strongest ever. There's too much information missing to judge, but if the statement above is based on Blake's tweet it is missing an important qualifier - "July".
Quoting 447. JustDucky251:



Scott

Although I find your constant hyping of El Nino tedious, at least you do back up your comments with data and not hype. In addition I think that someone who is as serious and diligent as yourself should get some respect. Please ignore those who are negative and stay positive.
Most people who are serious and diligent will earn respect. If that's not what's happening, it's time to look at yourself, your body of knowledge, and your presentation to discover what's wrong. The problem is not with the rest of the world, it's you. The idea that you somehow "deserve" respect is both wrong and immature.
Quoting 459. CaneFreeCR:

I am not sure where the "Strongest WWB on record" comes from. I do recall a tweet from Eric Blake that Scott quoted a while back which stated it is the strongest July WWB on record. I do not have the expertise to compare months, but it is my understanding that WWBs are a function of El Nino and it is unusual for El Nino to commence in early Summer. I wonder if the strongest July WWB is also the strongest ever on record, or just the strongest in July, which might be a good deal weaker than the strongest ever. There's too much information missing to judge, but if the statement above is based on Blake's tweet it is missing an important qualifier - "July".
It's also missing the qualifier that we have a number of typhoons helping the WWB along. How are your bridges holding up?
Quoting 427. rmbjoe1954:



Bull sharks have their young in the Indian River Lagoon. It's amazing what is found in the Lagoon off Fort Pierce inlet.


Not surprising; the FSU Marine Lab on the FL Big Bend has determined from stomach samples that the no#1 Bull Shark diet/favorite food up here is Redfish.............Indian River Lagoon is also a Florida hot spot for Redfish. Taste good and helps them youngins grow big and strong.............................
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC209-213-072100-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.W.0055.150707T1454Z-150707T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STONE COUNTY AND
FOR WESTERN TANEY COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF BRANSON
...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WEST CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT TUESDAY.

* AT 954 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED AN AREA OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. NEARLY 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...CAUSING SIGNFICANT
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS NEAR KIMBERLING CITY...REEDS SPRING...AND
ALONG ROARK CREEK. A DANGEROUS AMOUNT OF WATER WILL SWIFTLY FLOW
ALONG ROARK CREEK INTO THE CITY OF BRANSON.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN STONE
COUNTY AND WESTERN TANEY COUNTY INCLUDING THE CITY OF BRANSON.


* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BRANSON WEST...BRANSON...
CAPE FAIR...HOLLISTER...INDIAN POINT...KIMBERLING CITY...
KIRBYVILLE...REEDS SPRING...SILVER DOLLAR CITY...TABLE ROCK STATE
PARK AND TABLE ROCK. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

HIGHWAY 13 AT RAILEY CREEK NEAR REEDS SPRING.

SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD OBSERVATIONS HAVE OCCURRED IN KIMBERLING
CITY...REEDS SPRING...AND SURROUNDING RURAL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

AREA STREAM GAGES INDICATE FLOOD WATERS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY TO MAJOR
OR RECORD LEVELS.
Quoting 447. JustDucky251:



Scott

Although I find your constant hyping of El Nino tedious, at least you do back up your comments with data and not hype. In addition I think that someone who is as serious and diligent as yourself should get some respect. Please ignore those who are negative and stay positive.


On this and other issues STS tends to overforecast. However I find this valuable since I miss stuff he catches so yes STS, keep it up.. this is helpful.. seriously!
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC009-072000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.W.0052.150707T1413Z-150707T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
913 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ROARING RIVER STATE PARK AND FLAT CREEK
INCLUDING THE CITY OF CASSVILLE.
..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

* AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE
HEADWATERS OF FLAT CREEK...ROARING RIVER...DRY HOLLOW CREEK...AND
PIBERN HOLLOW CREEK IN BARRY COUNTY. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NOON. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING...AND
SIGNIFICNAT ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FUTURE
RAINFALL.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR ROARING RIVER STATE PARK AND
FLATT CREEK INCLUDING THE CITY OF CASSVILLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...CASSVILLE...EAGLE ROCK...
JENKINS...MCDOWELL AND ROARING RIVER STATE PARK. CREEKS...STREAMS
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE Y AT FLAT CREEK JUST NORTHEAST OF CASSVILLE...
ROUTE C JUST SOUTH OF MCDOWELL...
HIGHWAY 39 AT FLAT CREEK SOUTH OF JENKINS.

SECTIONS OF HIGHWAYS 248 AND 76 EAST OF CASSVILLE ARE FLOODED AND
HAVE BEEN CLOSED OFF TO MOTORISTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

MULTIPLE SWIFT WATER RESCUE TEAMS HAVE BEEN OR ARE BEING DEPLOYED IN
RESPONSE TO EXTREME FLASH FLOODING.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC059-253-417-441-071800-
/O.NEW.KSJT.FF.W.0032.150707T1449Z-150707T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
949 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 946 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED 34 WATER
RESCUES AS WELL AS ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. THE REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS
REPORTED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES.


* IMPACTS FROM THIS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL INCLUDE:
FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS.
RAPID RISE OF AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND ARROYOS.

WATER WILL BE HIGH AND FAST ENOUGH TO STALL VEHICLES OR WASH THEM
COMPLETELY OFF THE ROAD.


SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...CLYDE...
BAIRD...ABILENE...ROWDEN...WYLIE...CAPS...CORONAD OS CAMP...VIEW...
TYE...TUSCOLA...POTOSI...OPLIN...MERKEL...LAWN... HAWLEY...HAMBY...
EULA...DYESS AFB...DUDLEY...BUFFALO GAP AND BRADSHAW.

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT...
TEXAS AVENUE AT ARNOLD BOULEVARD...
INTERSECTIONS ALONG SAMMONS STREET...
CURRY LANE FROM CLACK STREET TO CATCLAW DRIVE...
BUTTERNUT UNDERPASS...
INTERSECTIONS ALONG BUTTONWILLOW PARKWAY...
I-20 FRONTAGE ROADS NEAR BAIRD...
STREETS BEWEEN JACKSON AND TREADAWAY...
watching invest 91C looking better this morning!!
Quoting 469. hurricanes2018:


is this former 96E?
Quoting 471. HurricaneAndre:

is this former 96E?


No.
Busy day out there for water rescue teams.



Link for Flash Flood Warnings
Quoting 463. sar2401:

It's also missing the qualifier that we have a number of typhoons helping the WWB along. How are your bridges holding up?
Or are the typhoons creating the WWB?

I'm planning to go to town this afternoon for some shopping and I'll find out if the bridges are holding up or not -- the extra 6.5 inches of rain yesterday and last night can't have helped things. There are three bridges to town, across the river, from up-river to down each more precarious than the previous. The upper and most sturdy is the one damaged and closed, and of course they can't work on it until the river goes down -- who knows when that will be? Lots of fun!
This used to be a cool site to monitor and discuss tropical storms and all things weather. Now it's a more about personal attacks and bickering back and forth which is a shame.

On the weather front it appears rain has exited the forecast for NW Florida again. I wish we could get regular rains each week but seems we get some good rains and then have to wait 10-14 days before it will rain again.
I didn't know Levi had this, so cool.
Thousands of birds abandon eggs, nests on Florida island

In this Friday, June 19, 2015 photo, In this Friday, June 19, 2015 photo, an Osprey returns to its nest in Seahorse Key, off Florida’s Gulf Coast. In May, Seahorse Key fell eerily quiet, as thousands of birds suddenly disappeared, and biologists are trying to find the reason why. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist Vic Doig said what was once the largest bird colony on the state’s Gulf Coast is now a “dead zone.”

Link
Everyone needs to read the ADMIN NOTICE above the comment box here in Dr Masters blog ..

Time to get back on subject ..
Quoting 476. 69Viking:

This used to be a cool site to monitor and discuss tropical storms and all things weather. Now it's a more about personal attacks and bickering back and forth which is a shame.

On the weather front it appears rain has exited the forecast for NW Florida again. I wish we could get regular rains each week but seems we get some good rains and then have to wait 10-14 days before it will rain again.


DC metro is usually fairly arid in summer (evaporation exceeds precipitation). Not this year.. we're just sodden since mid June. Gotta wait 10-14 hours before it will rain again.

Other sodden periods I can remember here were in late spring (2003,2008,2009) and were cooler. I don't ever remember this combination of heat and persistent wetness for several contiguous weeks, here.

I design my veggie gardens for flooding (raised beds with walkway drainage) so my main issue is the walkways are
flooded and weedy with skeeters while people around me are losing crops. Even in our clay, nutrient leaching is also becoming a problem.
SHELBYVILLE, Ind. (AP) — Record rainfall continues to take a toll on Indiana’s crops, with Purdue University experts estimating that farmers statewide have lost $486 million in corn and soybean production.

Link
Quoting 476. 69Viking:

This used to be a cool site to monitor and discuss tropical storms and all things weather. Now it's a more about personal attacks and bickering back and forth which is a shame.

On the weather front it appears rain has exited the forecast for NW Florida again. I wish we could get regular rains each week but seems we get some good rains and then have to wait 10-14 days before it will rain again.

The overall theme of this blog has changed quite a bit as well. I remember when, during the summer, a daily update would be posted about the status of the tropics. Now, the blog has taken on more of a global warming/climate change vibe and the tropics seem to be on the backburner. Maybe this is a function of the quiet state of the Atlantic, but I’m not sure. Climate change is a very divisive topic as it is, so that leads to instant bickering. Then, every time Scott posts something, 20 people come out to attack him, which leads to more bickering. I wish people would just ignore what they don’t agree with. If you feel the need to refute something, do it in a respectful way. Some of the stuff Webberweather is posting about Scott is completely below the belt and uncalled for.
im not talking little predators. there has been many sightings of great whites just offshore e.cen fl. my rookie theory is they come in for easy pickins. they are after released undersized cobia. cobia fight almost to the death so when they are thrown back in the ocean who knows how long they swim around in the daze. thats when the great white pounces his prey. the sharks have evolved
Typhoon Nangka looks like udergo Eyewall Replacement Cycle right now...i guess.


Quoting 482. ColoradoBob1:

SHELBYVILLE, Ind. (AP) — Record rainfall continues to take a toll on Indiana’s crops, with Purdue University experts estimating that farmers statewide have lost $486 million in corn and soybean production.

Link


Illinois had 13 inches of rain in June in Central Illinois .. thousands of acres of river bottom farmland is under water the length of the Illinois river ..
As related the animals and climate change issues, here is a blub from yesterday as related to species migration issues and potential inter-breeding issues in the future. Interesting to note that scientists are also modelling these potential issues with the animal kingdom.  Interesting to note that "landlocked" animals will probably have the least opportunity to migrate because of human barriers but birds and sea creatures (not mammals) will theoretically be able to migrate into new ranges more easily.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/07/hybrid -animals-grolar-bears-not-expected-be-common-conse quence-climate-change


When it comes to visually depicting climate change, few symbols are as widespread or emblematic as a polar bear floating on a melting iceberg. Many scientists have predicted that habitat loss will force species into new geographical ranges—areas where they may begin to overlap, compete, and even mate with closely related natives. And indeed, there have been observations of the grizzly/polar hybrid 'grolar' bear confirmed by DNA analysis. 

But a new study in Nature Climate Change predicts that the overall occurrence of these hybridization events between closely related species will actually be relatively low: On average, only 6.4% of species are expected to come into geographic contact with a hybridization possibility by the end of the century. The authors used computer models to generate a prediction of Earth’s climate from 2071 and 2100 and then analyzed how different species of birds, mammals, and amphibians would need to migrate to stay in suitable habitats. Birds had the highest rate of new overlap (11.6%)—a finding the authors attribute to the animals’ large geographic range. Mammals and amphibians clocked in at 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively. Additionally, because of the sheer number of different species that live there, 85% of all future hybrid meet-ups occurred in the tropics. The scientists point out that even their meager estimates are probably on the high side, because roads and other humanmade barriers are likely to reduce how well animals can track to their new ranges. 
Quoting 380. washingtonian115:

lol Viso I'm not crazy is just that the last Super el nino was not very friendly to some parts of the world back in 97.1996 was a wet year here in D.C and then 1997 brought more rain here.I haven't seen anything like it since then.



1997 turned very dry after late June in College Park. I was too busy to keep watering my rental garden
and just lost most of the stuff that year.

Winter 1997-98 was very very wet!
Is it just me or is there sone thing trying to develop off the northern coast of bahamas
Quoting 489. psetas23:

Is it just me or is there sone thing trying to develop off the northern coast of bahamas


That is a TUTT low. It won't develop into something tropical.
Quoting 489. psetas23:

Is it just me or is there sone thing trying to develop off the northern coast of bahamas


That is an upper level low spinning about; also notice the other one draped across the Gulf of Mexico with a squeeze play between the two:


Quoting 389. washingtonian115:

Nothing never repeats its self in the exact same manner.


There is a saying that history doesn't repeat itself exactly but it often rhymes.
Quoting 446. ricderr:

my two cents...aimed at all....and not at any one individual......nor at any one subject

when you're right...you're right

when you're wrong...you're wrong

when you're wrong...and you claim you're right...you're still wrong....

when you claim something will happen today...and it happens a week from now...you're still wrong

oops...forgot this one......

when you claim something as right that someone else said....they're right....not you



Lol. So if I say that Tampa will get hammered with 10" of rain everyday for the next 2 years and it finally happens I guess that means I was right - I mean wrong...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Oklahoma Rain
The storm line crossing OK last evening dissipated in the wee hours. Wishcasts notwithstanding and as forecasted by NWS, yesterday's highest rainfall totals are in Northern OK, especially NW OK. Will Rogers Airport, the official site for OKC weather, shows 0.57" of rainfall before the storms dissipated.


image credit: OK mesonet

Today's rain forecasts, through Thursday a.m. Flash flood watches are out for most of Oklahoma.

Quoting 485. pablosyn:

Typhoon Nangka looks like udergo Eyewall Replacement Cycle right now...i guess.



Good catch, perhaps it will help Nangka s unimpressive wind field.

Quoting 462. sar2401:

Most people who are serious and diligent will earn respect. If that's not what's happening, it's time to look at yourself, your body of knowledge, and your presentation to discover what's wrong. The problem is not with the rest of the world, it's you. The idea that you somehow "deserve" respect is both wrong and immature.


I'd like to blow this up and post it around my classroom.
Quoting 484. islander101010:

im not talking little predators. there has been many sightings of great whites just offshore e.cen fl. my rookie theory is they come in for easy pickins. they are after released undersized cobia. cobia fight almost to the death so when they are thrown back in the ocean who knows how long they swim around in the daze. thats when the great white pounces his prey. the sharks have evolved


The northern lagoons lost 50 square miles of seagrass meadow across the last four years... habitat for more than 4 billion fish. Our offshore fishery is dependent.. especially in the winter upon those now missing fish. The mullet, pigfish and pinfish go out to the gulfstream and spawn.. now that those numbers are diminished, many believe the sharks are now patrolling for new food source, which leads to inlets and beaches.
Quoting 447. JustDucky251:



Scott

Although I find your constant hyping of El Nino tedious, at least you do back up your comments with data and not hype. In addition I think that someone who is as serious and diligent as yourself should get some respect. Please ignore those who are negative and stay positive.


You're joking right? Have you been paying any attention whatsoever to his commentary over the last few months, or days for that matter? If you call incessantly using uncorrected model data, regurgitating & bolding Eric Blake, Mike Ventrice, & Phil Klotzbach's tweets, & perpetuating only the most exceptional scenarios as "evidence"... I have to admit, it must be hard for him to stay positive given he's been purposely over-zealous with his ENSO predictions for almost 2 years straight & is forced to constantly move the goalposts.