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Kids, Cars, and Heatstroke: A Lethal Summer Mix

By: Bob Henson 3:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2015

Any child’s death is heartbreaking, but there is something uniquely poignant about the way in which dozens of U.S. youngsters die each year: trapped in an oven-like vehicle on a quiet summer day. “That pain is every day. It’s always there,” one grief-stricken mother told CNN seven years after she inadvertently left her 9-month-old baby in her car. Close to 400 children have died across the nation over the last decade in this tragic way.

You don’t have to live in Phoenix or Houston for your car to become a death trap in summer heat. Jan Null (Department of Meteorology & Climate Science,San Jose State University) discovered how easy it is for a vehicle to heat up when it’s getting the intense solar radiation of summertime. Formerly a lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in the San Francisco Bay area, Null was interviewed by media in 2001 after a baby’s death in San Jose on an 86°F day. “Out of scientific curiosity, I started casually tracking temperatures in my own vehicles and was startled at not only how hot the readings were but also how rapidly they rose,” he recalled. He soon joined forces with two Stanford University Hospital doctors, Catherine McLaren and James Quinn, to carry out a more thorough analysis that was published in Pediatrics in 2005. The take-home finding was that full sunlight hitting a dark sedan boosted interior temperatures by more than 6°F every 10 minutes, even when outdoor temperatures were in the 70s. The paper concluded: “Even at relatively cool ambient temperatures, the temperature rise in vehicles is significant on clear, sunny days and puts infants at risk for hyperthermia. Vehicles heat up rapidly, with the majority of the temperature rise occurring within the first 15 to 30 minutes. Leaving the windows opened slightly does not significantly slow the heating process or decrease the maximum temperature attained.”


Figure 1. Even when temperatures outside are only 80°F, sunshine entering a closed vehicle can push the temperature to 109°F in just twenty minutes. After an hour, the car’s interior air can reach a blistering 123°F. Cracking windows does not reduce the ability of the air to reach such high temperatures. The sunshine entering the car rapidly heats up surfaces (the dashboard or steering wheel can reach 180 – 200°F on an 80°F day). These surfaces, in turn, heat up the interior through convection and conduction as well as by longwave radiation, in much the same way that an asphalt parking lot sends heat upward. An hour’s worth of warming is depicted in this QuickTime animation. Image credit: GM and Jan Null.

Null is passionate about providing good scientific information to advocates, policymakers, and emergency responders about how hot cars can get and the circumstances that lead to children dying in vehicles from heatstroke. His website noheatstroke.org includes a set of frequently updated statistics that bring home the problem vividly. Of the 637 such deaths recorded from 1998 to 2014, just over half involved children who were “forgotten,” many of them left in a vehicle by a parent or caregiver rushing to work in the morning. Maps that show the location of each incident from year to year make it abundantly clear that latitude is no protection: 2014 saw deaths in Michigan New York, and Connecticut, and 2015 has already seen a confirmed death in northern Idaho. Perhaps surprisingly, Null reports that only 20 states have laws regarding leaving children unattended in vehicles.


Figure 3. Geographic distribution of heatstroke deaths involving children and vehicles, 1998 – 2014. Image credit: Jan Null.

Here are Null’s safety recommendations:

Never leave a child unattended in a vehicle—not even for a minute!
—If you see a child unattended in a hot vehicle, call 911.
—Be sure that all occupants leave the vehicle when unloading. Don't overlook sleeping babies.
—Always lock your car and ensure children do not have access to keys or remote entry devices. Teach children that vehicles are never to be used as a play area.
—If a child is missing, always check the pool first, and then the car, including the trunk.
—Keep a stuffed animal in the carseat, and when the child is put in the seat, place the animal in the front with the driver. Or place your purse, briefcase, or cell phone in the back seat as a reminder that you have your child in the car.
—Make "look before you leave" a routine whenever you get out of the car.
—Have a plan that your childcare provider will call you if your child does not show up for school.

For a look at how heat affects the human body, check out our latest WU infographic (excerpted at the bottom of this post).


And don’t forget about Fido!

Smokey the Wonder Dog (right) joins Bob in reminding you that a vehicle roasting in the summer sun can be dangerous to pets, too. Hundreds are believed to die around the country each year after being left in hot cars. At least 16 states have laws of various types that prohibit endangering a pet’s life by leaving it unattended in a parked car. As of July 1, police officers across the state of Washington can break into parked cars as needed to rescue pets, with limits on their liability for vehicle damage. The pet’s guardian can face a $125 fine.

The Humane Society offers these tips on how you can help if you see a pet in a parked car on a sunny summer day:

—Take down the car's make, model and license-plate number.

—If there are businesses nearby, notify their managers or security guards and ask them to make an announcement to find the car's owner.

—If the owner can't be found, call the non-emergency number of the local police or animal control and wait by the car for them to arrive.

The American Veterinary Medicine Association suggests: “Before you put your pet in the vehicle, ask yourself if you really need to take your pet with you--and if the answer is no, leave your pet safely at home.”

Have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend, everybody!

Bob Henson

Figure 3 (below). An excerpt from “Heat and the Human Body,” the latest infographic from Weather Underground. The full version, created by WU’s Jerimiah Brown, can be found online.





European heat wave continues
Brutally hot conditions continued over Europe on Thursday, with the hottest temperatures shifted eastwards over Eastern France, the Netherlands, and Western Germany. The temperature in Maastrict, the Netherlands, hit 100.8°F (38.2°C), just missing the Netherlands' all-time hottest temperature record of 101.5°F (38.6°C), set on August 23, 1944 at Warnsveld.

According to Meteo France, on Wednesday, the high temperature at the official Montsouris station in Paris, France hit 103.5°F (39.7°C), the second warmest temperature ever measured there, and not far from Paris' all-time record of 104.7°F (40.4°C) set in July 1947. At least three stations in France set all-time heat records on Wednesday:

Boulogne-sur-Mer (station opened in 1947): 35.4°C (Previous record 34.8°C on 08/11/2003)
Dieppe (station opened in 1949): 38.3°C (Previous record 37°C on 07/09/2006)
Melun (station opened in 1947): 39.4°C (Previous record 38.9°C on 08/12/2003)

Three tropical cyclones in the Pacific
A Typhoon Watch is up for Guam for Typhoon Chan-hom, which is expected to pass very close to the island late morning U.S. EDT time on Saturday as an intensifying Category 2 storm. The NWS in Guam is putting out special advisories and local statements on the typhoon.

Chan-hom will be the second typhoon to affect the island this year; in May, the eye of Category 2 Typhoon Dolphin passed through the channel between the islands of Guam and Rota, bringing sustained winds of 84 mph, gusting to 106 mph, to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. Dolphin knocked out power and damaged some homes, but the islands escaped serious destruction.

The Philippines are watching Tropical Depression Ten, which is expected to skirt the northern island of Luzon over the weekend as a Category 1 typhoon. In the South Pacific, a rare winter tropical cyclone, Raquel, is drenching the Solomon Islands.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Outstanding advice
Epic Euro heat. Thanks for the update, Bob!
Good Morning, from Tobago.
The sea is Turquoise, Calm, Walm, and 30' from this patio.
It's very Stressful. But I'll try to survive this, while everyone else appears to be OverHeating.

Have a Good one, y'all.
I carry a center-punch, a springloaded one for use on the 24 mile Causeway bridge in case I go off it into the water.

However, it can always be used to rescue a child or Pet in a Hot car.

Buy one..you may need it one day. Most Home depot and Lowes have them, round $35 bucks.
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters, Thanks to Bob too....
Quoting 4. Patrap:

I carry a center-punch, a springloaded one for use on the 24 mile Causeway bridge in case I go off it into the water.

However, it can always be used to rescue a child or Pet in a Hot car.

Buy one..you may need it one day. Most Home depot and Lowes have them, round $35 bucks.


I carry a 45 GAP Model 38... You might want to cover your ears though!

Added: Actually one of those came mounted on the windshield of my JCB track loader. Great idea! It's a hammer though, not the centerpunch kind.

Thanks Dr. Henson. Florida has a high percentage of heat related car child deaths and it devastating to see every year. I am also appalled by the number of dogs I see frequently in cars parked at the grocery store or Wall Mart with the windows cracked. If you every see a child in a car like that, open the car doors if you can and get the child out; either way call 911.

And here is one example of what the judge-jury did here in one of these cases:


Tallahassee, Florida - January 23, 2012 9:36pm

A mother is sentenced to 15 years for the death of her six month old. In the summer of 2010, (name deleted] left the child in the car on a sweltering Tallahassee Day. Tallahassee police say the temperature inside the car reached 130 degrees that day.


I carry a center-punch, a springloaded one for use on the 24 mile Causeway bridge in case I go off it into the water.

back in my teens when i was in the car stereo procurement business that was the bomb!
As usual, I had the last post on the old blog. I carried this over because it's important from a historical view of what was happening in Holland when the previous heat record was set.

Quoting 356. cRRKampen:


Yes. Well, I think 38.2� C is going to be the value for today. Third highest ever measured in the country and by far the most reliable measurement (both previous 38 's were in June 1947 and August 1944).
We also had the highest minimum temps 'ever' last night.

We're going to try a second attack on the national all-time record on Saturday :)

(by the way, official record of Warnsveld '44 is 38.6� - there might be a double Fahrenheit conversion error there, dr. Masters :) ).


Talk about weather geeks. I wonder who the brave Dutchman was who stood by his instrument shelter, still taking and recording observations, while the Allies and the Germans were pounding Holland from the air and with artillery. That record high was just two weeks before "mad Tuesday" and the beginning of harsh German measures against the Dutch, leading up to the starvation Winter. Pretty amazing.
Quoting 8. ricderr:


I carry a center-punch, a springloaded one for use on the 24 mile Causeway bridge in case I go off it into the water.

back in my teens when i was in the car stereo procurement business that was the bomb!


Well if yer adult past here is any example, Im sure you were bad at it.

: P
Quoting 3. pottery:

Good Morning, from Tobago.
The sea is Turquoise, Calm, Walm, and 30' from this patio.
It's very Stressful. But I'll try to survive this, while everyone else appears to be OverHeating.

Have a Good one, y'all.
Sounds absolutely terrible. I don't know how you stand it. It's already 90 here with a dewpoint of 74, a long way from any turquoise water.
—Never leave a child unattended in a vehicle—not even for a minute!


two people recorded themselves in las cruces the other day staying in a closed car...they lasted just about 7 minutes....watching the affects the heat had on their bodies...their speech and mannerisms was telling.....in the el paso las cruces albequerque area in the past month we've had 5 deaths due to children being left in a car

Link
Great advice
Well here it is July 2nd and Grayling Michigan was the coldest in the state at 36 F and my backyard was 35 F, seems a little late in the year worrying about a frost but.., oh well. A lot of our neighbors gave up on gardens because of frosts at almost any time of the summer.
Unprecedented....



Quoting 95. JohnLonergan:

From Tamino

Consider La Crosse, WA for instance. On Friday (June 26) it broke the all-time record for that date, not just by a degree or even two, but by five degrees. That%u2019s five degrees hotter than any other June 26th on record. The next day (Saturday June 27) it broke the record for that day too, exceeding the hottest June 27th on record, not by one, or two, or even five degrees, but by nine degrees.

If you think that%u2019s impressive, consider that on Sunday (June 28) it tied the all-time record for any day, not just for that date. And it was not even July or August (the usual hottest months) yet. As for the daily record, of course it broke that. Not by one degree, not by two, not by five, not even by nine. It broke the June 28th record by fifteen degrees.



Visiting Florida for the week, the heat is oppressive for we Wisconsinites. Interesting the deaths for kids left in cars is so high for Texas and Florida and yet relatively low for SC, Alabama, and other southern states where the heat index is regularly over 100.
Stay strong...in my thoughts

Quoting 3. pottery:

Good Morning, from Tobago.
The sea is Turquoise, Calm, Walm, and 30' from this patio.
It's very Stressful. But I'll try to survive this, while everyone else appears to be OverHeating.

Have a Good one, y'all.
The Maastrict station listed as being in the Netherlands on the wunderground site links to Geilenkirchen, Germany, just across the Dutch border, so the Netherlands has NOT set a new national heat record, as I initially reported. Sorry for the confusion.

Jeff Masters
I just went through one heck of a storm wow!
Thank you Mr. Henson. A new law has just been passed here in TN that even a civilian can break out the window of a car if a child, or animal is locked inside, and not be libel....One of the most superb laws ever passed in my eyes....Two links provide info for child and pet laws...LinkLink
Quoting 11. sar2401:

Sounds absolutely terrible. I don't know how you stand it. It's already 90 here with a dewpoint of 74, a long way from any turquoise water.


Looks like you might get something today.
Quoting 20. JustDucky251:



Looks like you might get something today.
I'm hoping. The path of the current storms is just a bit too far south and will probably miss me. There are little cells starting up more on my longitude so one can only hope.
Quoting 18. TCweatherman:

I just went through one heck of a storm wow!
Looks like a cell with a 31,500 foot top went right over your neighborhood. Did you get any hail?
Quoting 15. DeepSeaRising:

Visiting Florida for the week, the heat is oppressive for we Wisconsinites. Interesting the deaths for kids left in cars is so high for Texas and Florida and yet relatively low for SC, Alabama, and other southern states where the heat index is regularly over 100.
We have a lot less people than Texas and Florida. You can see the higher number in Georgia, with more people. It would be interesting to see the same numbers in terms of deaths per capita, which would give a lot better indication of states with problems than raw number of deaths.
Quoting 15. DeepSeaRising:

Visiting Florida for the week, the heat is oppressive for we Wisconsinites. Interesting the deaths for kids left in cars is so high for Texas and Florida and yet relatively low for SC, Alabama, and other southern states where the heat index is regularly over 100.


Funny you should say that. I live near Dallas, Texas. I find Florida to be way more comfortable than Texas, even in July. Here, it is often still over 90F at 9:00PM, but in Florida, during a recent visit, it was down to 75 by 9:00PM in July every evening. Plus, they have the benefit of cooling rain showers daily, but in Texas we typically only get rain about every 2-4 weeks during mid summer.

It seemed like it may of been but it was raining so hard I couldn't tell, the wind was probably 30mph and the lighting was nonstop. One of the best storms I've went through! In town now & roads are flooded.
Quoting 23. sar2401:

Looks like a cell with a 31,500 foot top went right over your neighborhood. Did you get any hail?
Here is the WPC Conus chart for today.  Noting that the t-storms are starting to fire up again in the Northern Gulf and Florida Panhandle/Big Bend region again this afternoon:




Looks like I might get nailed by a developing severe thunderstorm currently in Tampa Bay.
Quoting 17. JeffMasters:

The Maastrict station listed as being in the Netherlands on the wunderground site links to Geilenkirchen, Germany, just across the Dutch border, so the Netherlands has NOT set a new national heat record, as I initially reported. Sorry for the confusion.

Jeff Masters


No.
But it did set a nation-wide, all-time July record. This 38.2° C was also the #3 hottest temp ever recorded in the country.
The Humane Society offers these tips on how you can help if you see a pet in a parked car on a sunny summer day:
Yeah.. no. Child or pet I'm breaking the window. I'd rather be found guilty of criminal damage or liable for a window replacement than have that on my conscience for the rest of my life.
Quoting 25. Brian556:



Funny you should say that. I live near Dallas, Texas. I find Florida to be way more comfortable than Texas, even in July. Here, it is often still over 90F at 9:00PM, but in Florida, during a recent visit, it was down to 75 by 9:00PM in July every evening. Plus, they have the benefit of cooling rain showers daily, but in Texas we typically only get rain about every 2-4 weeks during mid summer.


Probably because of the trade winds and sea breezes. ...and those afternoon thunderstorms sure can cool things off very quick.
Quoting 9. sar2401:

As usual, I had the last post on the old blog. I carried this over because it's important from a historical view of what was happening in Holland when the previous heat record was set.

Quoting 356. cRRKampen:


Yes. Well, I think 38.2� C is going to be the value for today. Third highest ever measured in the country and by far the most reliable measurement (both previous 38 's were in June 1947 and August 1944).
We also had the highest minimum temps 'ever' last night.

We're going to try a second attack on the national all-time record on Saturday :)

(by the way, official record of Warnsveld '44 is 38.6� - there might be a double Fahrenheit conversion error there, dr. Masters :) ).


Talk about weather geeks. I wonder who the brave Dutchman was who stood by his instrument shelter, still taking and recording observations, while the Allies and the Germans were pounding Holland from the air and with artillery. That record high was just two weeks before "mad Tuesday" and the beginning of harsh German measures against the Dutch, leading up to the starvation Winter. Pretty amazing.

My reply arrived there too. This:
-
We should really find that brave Dutchman and erect a statue! LOL

The record is fairly verified, by estimates of the T850 (weather services were functioning pretty well during the war, letting up more balloons than we do nowadays maybe) of 22-23° C (a bit over today's) and surrounding stations (including some German, btw just over the border today 38.5° C - I'm using official stations only). Maastricht, where today's record was set, did 38.0° C on that 1944 day. This city also holds second place though from a different station location, 38.4° C on the 27th of June 1947.
Note: the forties were a remarkable decade. They include three of the four coldest winters in Holland since 1900: 1947, 1942, 1940 in that order, only surpassed by 1963). And the second coldest winter of past century, 1947, was followed by the hottest summer 'ever' (since at least 1706), this summer still is #1. Some blocked year, that.
Quoting 14. Patrap:

Unprecedented....





Is that a table of the June average temps?
Quoting 4. Patrap:

I carry a center-punch, a springloaded one for use on the 24 mile Causeway bridge in case I go off it into the water.

However, it can always be used to rescue a child or Pet in a Hot car.

Buy one..you may need it one day. Most Home depot and Lowes have them, round $35 bucks.


Harbor freight has them for $2.99 right now.
Link
+PDO very strong.
Quoting 16. HaoleboySurfEC:

Stay strong...in my thoughts




Thank you.
I will carry your concerns with me, as I slink off to the hammok over there.
It's Siesta time........

:):))
Quoting 11. sar2401:

Sounds absolutely terrible. I don't know how you stand it. It's already 90 here with a dewpoint of 74, a long way from any turquoise water.

Yes, it's rather difficult, you know.
But I have been Fortified in the knowledge that you guys are standing by in case you are needed.
Or something.....
Quoting 37. pottery:



Thank you.
I will carry your concerns with me, as I slink off to the hammok over there.
It's Siesta time........

:):))
Greetings Pott....Sounds nice down there...Getting a bit too wet here....Saw a squirrel swimmin like a duck this morning...:)
Quoting 34. ACSeattle:


Is that a table of the June average temps?


Single day June records broken for varying locations, not inclusive.
RE: 34, NWS Spokane has the full record list, many June records smashed and a few all-time records broken. Link

Quoting 6. ChillinInTheKeys:



I carry a 45 GAP Model 38... You might want to cover your ears though!

Added: Actually one of those came mounted on the windshield of my JCB track loader. Great idea! It's a hammer though, not the centerpunch kind.




If you don't have $35, auto parts stores carry a center punch in the $5 - $10 (at most) range. I usually have in my vehicles. I do have that hammer. I have used both to save infants locked in hot cars in Florida. They work and yes, they work under water. While I would never, ever shoot into a vehicle with someone in it, the first round will go off if you vehicle is under water, but you do have to place the gun right up to touching the window... One of my friends years ago hit an armadillo in the road at night, hit a bridge over a canal and flipped right over upside in the water. He was able to use his gun to shoot the window out. After shot #1 though, the gun had to be cleaned and cleared. He ended up being able to swim to safety and without major injury. Since it was a road in a rural area and dark out it was very disorienting in the water - so he blew some air out of his lungs and was able to determine which way was up by following them. The car landed in the water completely upside down...

This year, in Anchorage, a dog was saved by a passerby because the owner locked them in their car, as is common here, and went shopping. The inside of the car was well over 100F even though the outside airtemp was in the mid 70s. The Police Department up here issued heat warnings before and after that event. There have been close calls with children too. At least in Anchorage, it is illegal to leave your child/infant or a pet in a locked car with the windows up...
I can imagine the sound of groans because of Dr. Masters comment..
Quoting 43. ncstorm:

I can imagine the sound of groans because of Dr. Masters comment..


I would much prefer that Dr. Masters was reporting that the warming stopped 18 years ago and that he had the scientific evidence to support his statements. Sadly, the only ones that are saying this are the ones without a shred of scientific evidence. I would rather believe that the warming stopped 18 years ago, but that is not what the evidence is showing.
nice blog bob/jeff great reminder for everyone
it happens way to often with kids and pets left in cars

have a great fourth of july weekend to you and yours
Quoting 43. ncstorm:

I can imagine the sound of groans because of Dr. Masters comment..


From who? I can't imagine it would be the people who appreciate facts.
Quoting 46. Naga5000:



From who? I can't imagine it would be the people who appreciate facts.



LOL..carry on Naga..$$$$
If you like lightning check out this link to a Reuters slideshow:

Link
Quoting 47. ncstorm:




LOL..carry on Naga..$$$$


Do you come on here for any other reason that to instigate arguments? Just curious. I wanted to ask quick because I'm sure you need to leave for the store soon.
Afternoon all. Hot here today. But the dew point is lower and there is a bit of a breeze. ;)

Partly Cloudy
90°F
32°C
Humidity 66%
Wind Speed S 12 mph
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.6 mb)
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 103°F (39°C)
Last update 2 Jul 12:53 pm CDT



Quoting 45. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice blog bob/jeff great reminder for everyone
it happens way to often with kids and pets left in cars

have a great fourth of july weekend to you and yours


Amen.
Sar

Did the rain pass you by or did you get lucky?
I'm really surprised the automakers haven't put reflective tint in all the windows of a vehicle. I notice a huge difference from before and after I tint a new vehicle of mine. I know, it doesn't make it right to leave a kid in a vehicle but if it takes longer to heat up maybe somebody will notice and take action before it's too late.
Quoting 52. JustDucky251:

Sar

Did the rain pass you by or did you get lucky?


Passed North of me along the beach, sucks, was hoping to get my share of the 50% chance of rain today.
Quoting 53. 69Viking:

I'm really surprised the automakers haven't put reflective tint in all the windows of a vehicle. I notice a huge difference from before and after I tint a new vehicle of mine. I know, it doesn't make it right to leave a kid in a vehicle but if it takes longer to heat up maybe somebody will notice and take action before it's too late.


Great idea for the sides and back, but I'm not sure what that would do for visibility thru the front windshield.
56th!
I see the pacific is turning into a bit of a star studded arena as the day or rather their night goes along. 4 storms now going along.

Meanwhile in the twilight of our day over in southern Europe the temps are a pleasant +30/C for us and a lot hotter in the north.
We get out turn at the weekend of course with the temps here set to get over 40/C or well into the 100s+/F, possibly as high as 44/C in some areas.
forecasted surface temps at 5 pm north American eastern daylight time

TD 10:



Typhoon Chan-Hom:



97W:

Quoting 57. PlazaRed:

I see the pacific is turning into a bit of a star studded arena as the day or rather their night goes along. 4 storms now going along.

Meanwhile in the twilight of our day over in southern Europe the temps are a pleasant +30/C for us and a lot hotter in the north.
We get out turn at the weekend of course with the temps here set to get over 40/C or well into the 100s+/F, possibly as high as 44/C in some areas.


ya it going to get a little warm 41 to 43 c is max possible temps
very dangerous line of storms with tons of Lightning and wind..stay indoors east coast of Florida..


sat 1500 utc july 4th 2015

wrong image was posted for wed jul 8 has been corrected too show sat july 4th sorry
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



sat 1500 utc july 4th 2015

There's going to be a fair amount of screaming in central Europe about that map when it becomes reality.
Most of the people there won't have AC, not that I have winter but I live in an area with almost no humidity, they have wetlands and bogs all over the place there.

KOTG, is there a temp scale for that global temps map you put up a few posts back? Interesting temps in green all above north America.
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



sat 1500 utc july 4th 2015
Based on that map, Poland is in for some all-time highs next week. The long-range forecast for Warsaw already calls for 97 next Wednesday; it'll be interesting to watch...
Quoting 64. PlazaRed:


There's going to be a fair amount of screaming in central Europe about that map when it becomes reality.
Most of the people there won't have AC, not that I have winter but I live in an area with almost no humidity, they have wetlands and bogs all over the place there.

KOTG, is there a temp scale for that global temps map you put up a few posts back? Interesting temps in green all above north America.
plaza that was an incorrect image I posted for jul 4 it was for jul 8th I have corrected it with correct image sorry

I will get the link for ya give me a second
to see temps point mouse arrow in area you wish to see then left click mouse to show that areas temps in c and wind bearing and speed and lon/lat position

Link
Quoting 59. Envoirment:

TD 10:




It has an interesting "fireball" look to it. All on the southwest side of the circulation too.
Kotzebue, Alaska May-June



National Geographic article

Alaska's Seal Hunt Lasted Only a Few Days Because It's So Hot

Link
Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

to see temps point mouse arrow in area you wish to see then left click mouse to show that areas temps in c and wind bearing and speed and lon/lat position

Link

Thanks for that one Keep.
Interesting if you put on the map with the North Pole at the centre then click on the arctic areas, almost all are well above freezing.
Some places are by now melting at an astonishing pace, plus the north of Greenland is well into the warm areas.

Link

Also interesting how small the cool areas are when looked at from the "North Pole" centre aspect!
It is only 69 deg in Utica, NY.
Quoting 69. Grothar:

Kotzebue, Alaska May-June



National Geographic article

Alaska's Seal Hunt Lasted Only a Few Days Because It's So Hot

Link


One of the extremely rare times that I get to make a correction for you, Grothar. I probably still owe you a few dozen more before we are even.

Alaska's Seal Hunt Lasted Only a Few Days Because It's So Hot
Quoting 69. Grothar:

Kotzebue, Alaska May-June



National Geographic article

Alaska's Seal Hunt Lasted Only a Few Days Because It's So Hot

Link

That link seems to be faulty, perhaps too much merry making.
I have tried to get a better one.

Link
Quoting 70. PlazaRed:


Thanks for that one Keep.
Interesting if you put on the map with the North Pole at the centre then click on the arctic areas, almost all are well above freezing.
Some places are by now melting at an astonishing pace, plus the north of Greenland is well into the warm areas.

Link

Also interesting how small the cool areas are when looked at from the "North Pole" centre aspect!
we are in full summer mode for temps in high arctic it will likely get warmer over the rest of july and august then early sept the slow drop in temps and refreeze begins by mid sept after peak melt is reached around sept 13th
Quoting 72. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



One of the extremely rare times that I get to make a correction for you, Grothar. I probably still owe you a few dozen more before we are even.

Alaska's Seal Hunt Lasted Only a Few Days Because It's So Hot


Thanks, but you are only allowed one a year.
Quoting 71. Grothar:

It is only 69 deg in Utica, NY.
Only 74 in S C IL, although dew pts are trying to creep back up a little. Happy belated btw!
Quoting 75. Grothar:



Thanks, but you are only allowed one a year.


I know this rare instance was likely due to when when you blew out the candles on your birthday cake. The candle smoke filled the room and your eyes are still a bit blurry from the smoke.

1 per year? OK, the day after your birthday, going forward?
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM EGAY
11:00 PM PhST July 2 2015
======================
“EGAY” has intensified into a tropical storm as it continues to move in a northwest direction.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Egay (LINFA) [997 hPa] located at 14.9N 127.0E or 330 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #1

Impacts:
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

Luzon region
-----------------
1. Isabela

Additional Information
====================
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of the country.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM LINFA (T1510)
3:00 AM JST July 3 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Linfa (998 hPa) located at 15.9N 127.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.7N 125.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.7N 123.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.1N 122.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (1509)
3:00 AM JST July 3 2015
==========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Chan-Hom (975 hPa) located at 10.1N 148.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 11.5N 147.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 14.3N 145.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 16.9N 143.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
Fyi Pat: Robert Plant gets the chance to flaunt his comedic wares in the upcoming British comedy, Doreen: The Movie. Noise 11 reported that the former Led Zeppelin frontman plays a suburban door-to-door handyman offering up services to re-tar a prospective customers driveway. Plant's character is rebuffed, but leaves behind the tongue-in-cheek business card, which reads, PLANT HIRE Your Driveway to Heaven Black Dig Tarmac Ltd Call Robert on 07428.

Doreen: The Movie will premiere in October in the UK. The film is based on the life of the Birmingham Mail columnist, Doreen Tipton, which spawned a series of short pieces on YouTube. (from KSHE95 Real Rock News)

With the current temps, probably a good time to re-tar in the UK. Looking forward to a low 80s 4th in S C IL, & they've dried up the forecast too (knocks on wood)! .6" last night for us, much worse in StL, woman swept away in flash flood last night before rescuers could reach her. Edit: just saw an update, likely a second woman also swept away after driving into same creek.
All those storms, developed just down wind of us here in Winter Park, some gusty wind and not a drop of rain. Now the sun is out. I am so sick to death of seeing the sun. Geez.
Quoting 47. ncstorm:




LOL..carry on Naga..$$$$


I don't know what that means, but $$$$ to you too! :)
Quoting 39. hydrus:

Greetings Pott....Sounds nice down there...Getting a bit too wet here....Saw a squirrel swimmin like a duck this morning...:)


saw a squirrel FLY like a duck in Wilma... cabbage palm snapped at about 8 feet up, when down the riverbank. Few minutes later, the two squirrels who were in it showed up at the top of the bank. Waiting for a lull, they went back to the "stob" and hung on a few minutes. The top one waited for another lull and jumped down and ran to the next tree which still had a crown. The other one had bad timing, as it jumped, the gust took it away..... showed up 20 minutes later muddy and bedraggled.. made it to the tree and mate, lived happy ever after.
Chan-Hom

Do you think they will ever have a Typhoon named Phon-Hom?


Source for updates.


Source for updates.

The Netherlands with their new record heat for July are getting hammered by very strong storms right now, and storms reach out all the way north to Norway.

(And thanks for the useful new entry on a serious subject, Bob. Hope it will help to save lives!)
Quoting 86. barbamz:


Source for updates.


Source for updates.

The Netherlands with their new record heat for July are getting hammered by very strong storms right now, and storms reach out all the way north to Norway.

(And thanks for the useful new entry on a serious update, Bob. Hope it will help to save lives!)


I talked to a friend in Bad
Breisig today---it was warmer there than in Tampa
chan horn! we will hear that name alot next week
Quoting 87. SunnyDaysFla:
I talked to a friend in Bad
Breisig today---it was warmer there than in Tampa

Sure, Sunny, Germany is the new Florida, lol, that's why I'm here (and wait for the temps on Saturday) :-) -- I just hope the gators will leave us alone!
Everyone (in the US) have a safe 4th of July Weekend Holiday and everyone (all of our bloggers) have a safe weather weekend. I have the day off tomorrow, and following an early am fishing trip with a Bud, the Wife has planned out the remainder of the weekend for me already. Given these hot temps these days, it pays to get out early to do your outside stuff before max-heat arrives in the afternoon.

Things are quiet in the Atlantic and should remain quiet in the Eastern E-Pac (closer to Central America) for at least the next week as well; as the MJO propagates westward in the Pacific, we should see a healthier ITCZ on the E-Pac side in the longer term going into mid-July to late-July.  The current area of interest is further west headed towards Hawaii with a 60% chance in 5 days.

Atlantic


Eastern E-Pac

Area of interest heading towards Hawaii:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over the far
southwestern eastern Pacific centered about 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this
system over the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Quoting 89. barbamz:


Sure, Sunny, Germany is the new Florida, lol, that's why I'm here (and wait for the temps on Saturday) :-)
i

She said people looked at them funny for installing ceiling fans in their condo but she sure is happy to have them now. their porch thermometer read 102F in the heat of the afternoon.
Quoting 84. indianrivguy:



saw a squirrel FLY like a duck in Wilma... cabbage palm snapped at about 8 feet up, when down the riverbank. Few minutes later, the two squirrels who were in it showed up at the top of the bank. Waiting for a lull, they went back to the "stob" and hung on a few minutes. The top one waited for another lull and jumped down and ran to the next tree which still had a crown. The other one had bad timing, as it jumped, the gust took it away..... showed up 20 minutes later muddy and bedraggled.. made it to the tree and mate, lived happy ever after.
Howdy IRG...I too have seen natures fury in action..I watched a huge oak disintegrate through a shuttered window 15 feet from me face....Raw power of the wind is impressive to say the least.
weather underground forecast grateful weather for the "fare the well" shows in chicago.
ok i dont get it


why is it ever time doc makes a new blog this dos not show up at 1st

Script: http://ajax.googleapis.com/aja…ibs/jquery/1.7.2/ jquery.min.js:4


but after a few hrs it starts showing up
Quoting 91. SunnyDaysFla:


She said people looked at them funny for installing ceiling fans in their condo but she sure is happy to have them now. their porch thermometer read 102F in the heat of the afternoon.

Wow, not bad; I only managed 36,3 C (97,34F) in my backyard today. And ceiling fans may be a good idea. I've got three regular ones for my rooms (currently still with 'cool' temps of 27C = 81F), and helped to distribute some more in the house of some elderly people nearby. Until now it has been a dry heat for us, but next days the air is going to match the vapor in the Floridian swamps :-(
Strong outflow boundry coming out of Orange County getting ready to do the dance with the sea breeze front here in Brevard County, we need the rain!
Quoting 82. HurrMichaelOrl:

All those storms, developed just down wind of us here in Winter Park, some gusty wind and not a drop of rain. Now the sun is out. I am so sick to death of seeing the sun. Geez.
Quoting 82. HurrMichaelOrl:

All those storms, developed just down wind of us here in Winter Park, some gusty wind and not a drop of rain. Now the sun is out. I am so sick to death of seeing the sun. Geez.

I couldn't stand living in California
Quoting 89. barbamz:


Sure, Sunny, Germany is the new Florida, lol, that's why I'm here (and wait for the temps on Saturday) :-) -- I just hope the gators will leave us alone!


So you mean we should start now with discussing patchy rainfall pattern :-)

Maximum temperature today was 31,6 Celsius or 88,9 Fahrenheit. Record is 37,3 Celsius or 99,1 Fahrenheit, so Saturday is the day to watch for me.

And the gators can swim right under my window at the place I live:

Aw man. A severe thunderstorm watch for my area. I just want some gusty winds and hail. I haven't seen hail outside in years in Savannah, or at least in the part of Savannah I live in. I hope the storms are gone before I take my shower this evening.
Hope everyone enjoys & has a safe 4th weekend!

Quoting 99. ChrisHamburg:


And the gators can swim right under my window at the place I live:


Ahh, Speicherstadt? Very nice!! Hope the water provides a bit of coolness in these days. Quoting Wiki: The Speicherstadt (lit. city of warehouses, meaning warehouse district) in Hamburg, Germany is the largest warehouse district in the world where the buildings stand on timber-pile foundations, oak logs, in this particular case. It is located in the port of Hamburg - within the HafenCity quarter - and was built from 1883 to 1927. The district was built as a free zone to transfer goods without paying customs. As of 2009 the district and the surrounding area is under redevelopment.



Still terrible storms in Netherlands. Live map with relentless lightning.
103. 882MB
The sun has risen over Chan-hom.





Now Linfa is being heavily sheared from the NE, with all the strongest convection to its W and SW, headed for Luzon, in the Philippine's.





And also, Raquel continues to pummel the Solomon islands, and it still has not crossed the area.



RSMC NADI

At 6:00 AM FST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-TC RAQUEL (17F) [1000HPA] ANALYZED NEAR 6.4S 160.2E POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 100 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE AREA EAST OF 160E.
Quoting 102. barbamz:


Ahh, Speicherstadt? Very nice!! Hope the water provides a bit of coolness in these days.


Nope it is older than the Speicherstadt, it was the commercial district between the river Elbe and the Alster sea before they build the Speicherstadt. Building is from 1780 and was a granary. When it gets hot like now it will literally dry you out. The wood on the floor is still original and concave shaped. Not much of the district survived the war, these building burnt really fast, it is a little miracle. It is nice to live in such an old building nevertheless, nicest place I ever lived in.

And please watch this forecast for Tuesday, doesn't look good I have to say:

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM EGAY
5:00 AM PhST July 3 2015
======================
Tropical Storm “EGAY” has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a northwest direction

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Egay (LINFA) [997 hPa] located at 15.5N 126.6E or 330 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #1

Impacts:
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon region
-----------------
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan

Additional Information
====================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of Bicol Region and Samar provinces are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Getting some nice storms and heavy rain here in Melbourne now, Yea! Heavier stuff just west of 95 but closing in. The rain and thunder sure sounds nice for a change!
Still a tropical cyclone formation alert for 97W



copyright Japan Meteorological Agency
lightning.crazy@e.cen.fl
u can warn people over and over but every year it happens
Quoting 85. Grothar:

Chan-Hom

Do you think they will ever have a Typhoon named Phon-Hom?




i don't get it???
Quoting 75. Grothar:



Thanks, but you are only allowed one a year.


You make mistakes that often? Doesn't seem that often.
Pacific News Center

For latest news from Guam
the only one that didn't take bp money:

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — The newly announced BP oil spill settlement covers the federal government, the five Gulf states and "the vast majority of local governmental entities" in those states. However, the government of one of Louisiana's hardest hit areas, coastal Plaquemines Parish, says it has not yet agreed to a settlement.

The parish juts out into the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana's southeastern tip. Oil from the 2010 spill fouled sections of its marshy coastline.

In a Thursday news release, the parish government said it could not, in good conscience, settle for the amount it was being offered.

Without saying how much it was offered or how much it seeks, the parish said it wants to be able to rebuild pelican nesting grounds and recover millions of dollars in spill-related administrative costs.

bravo billy
Quoting 111. WaterWitch11:



i don't get it???


E.T?

How about hom les
I'm a little surprised Alaska didn't have a child fatality from heatstroke in a car during this period. It gets hot enough in Fairbanks. Maybe the sun angle is a factor; the sun never approaches the zenith in Alaska.
Chan-hom is likely not as strong as indicated by JTWC (they have it at 65kts). It's as I said yesterday; not going to be a rapid organizer at first. Still feeling effects of shear. It made a run this morning and perhaps briefly touched typhoon status, with a developing mid-level eye visible on microwave. Shear has hit back for the past few hours though, and it's again very disorganized. Give it another day or two.

Strong El-Nino now in progress and is going to get a lot stronger with likely a Super El-Nino come September or October.



According to the TAO charts there are 2C anomalies beginning to spread across Nino 3.4 with near 3C anomalies across Nino 1&2. With the most powerful WWB ongoing across the Pacific expect SST's to quickly rise come later in July may even near 2C officially per CPC's update come late July.

Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:

Strong El-Nino now in progress and is going to get a lot stronger with likely a Super El-Nino come September or October.






I thought it currently is moderate? When did it change and who designated it as strong?
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:

Strong El-Nino now in progress and is going to get a lot stronger with likely a Super El-Nino come September or October.






this will be unlike anything we have seen before
and closer to climate chaos than ever
sst's are high from 0 degree north all the way to Bering sea abnormally high
even now entering arctic ocean itself
with the normal high sst's missing off central and southern SA in normal nino years
its unusual so expect the unusual just how much unusual is yet to be seen

it is the great unknown
Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:

According to the TAO charts there are 2C anomalies beginning to spread across Nino 3.4 with near 3C anomalies across Nino 1&2. With the most powerful WWB ongoing across the Pacific expect SST's to quickly rise come later in July may even near 2C officially per CPC's update come late July.


Another Kelvin wave could develop with this crazy WW. Funny, the 1997 also had a crazy WWB on June.
Quoting 117. MAweatherboy1:

Chan-hom is likely not as strong as indicated by JTWC (they have it at 65kts). It's as I said yesterday; not going to be a rapid organizer at first. Still feeling effects of shear. It made a run this morning and perhaps briefly touched typhoon status, with a developing mid-level eye visible on microwave. Shear has hit back for the past few hours though, and it's again very disorganized. Give it another day or two.


It also has another COC behind.
Quoting 109. islander101010:

lightning.crazy@e.cen.fl


I can believe it. I could tell if I had been in one of the storms today, the lightning would have been hellacious. I had noticed, and this year seems to be no exception, that Central FL tends to get the worst lightning in the month of July. Our rainy season runs from late May to mid September, on average.
Quoting 114. WaterWitch11:

the only one that didn't take bp money:

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — The newly announced BP oil spill settlement covers the federal government, the five Gulf states and "the vast majority of local governmental entities" in those states. However, the government of one of Louisiana's hardest hit areas, coastal Plaquemines Parish, says it has not yet agreed to a settlement.

The parish juts out into the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana's southeastern tip. Oil from the 2010 spill fouled sections of its marshy coastline.

In a Thursday news release, the parish government said it could not, in good conscience, settle for the amount it was being offered.

Without saying how much it was offered or how much it seeks, the parish said it wants to be able to rebuild pelican nesting grounds and recover millions of dollars in spill-related administrative costs.

bravo billy.     
Billy Nungesser is no longer president of Plaquemines Parish (he was term limited out); the current president is Amos Cormier.
Quoting 122. Gearsts:

Another Kelvin wave could develop with this crazy WW. Funny, the 1997 also had a crazy WWB on June.


It appears we are having what occurred in June 1997 just a month later but likely the highest SST's positioned across Nino 3.4 which is different than 1997. It appears we are in for an interesting few months as this MJO & WWB is stronger than 1997 by a long shot actually which is giving the models much more accuracy in showing an ENSO stronger than 1997.
Quoting 124. HurrMichaelOrl:



I can believe it. I could tell if I had been in one of the storms today, the lightning would have been hellacious. I had noticed, and this year seems to be no exception, that Central FL tends to get the worst lightning in the month of July. Our rainy season runs from late May to mid September, on average.


You mean October. Also what you guys are getting is what we had in June. June was insane lightning wise here with so many trees being hit in my complex the last several weeks especially from last Tuesday's storm.
This will spread west, very interesting.
Quoting 120. SunnyDaysFla:



I thought it currently is moderate? When did it change and who designated it as strong?


TAO graphs supports the fact that we seem to be over the 1.5C threshold now.
Quoting 128. Gearsts:

This will spread west, very interesting.



Wait till the WWB gets there!
Quoting 126. StormTrackerScott:



It appears we are having what occurred in June 1997 just a month later but likely the highest SST's positioned across Nino 3.4 which is different than 1997. It appears we are in for an interesting few months as this MJO & WWB is stronger than 1997 by a long shot actually which is giving the models much more accuracy in showing an ENSO stronger than 1997.
I did not say it would be stronger than 1997 ;)
CFSv2 is forecasting a 3.2C ENSO also the Euro is similar on the July update it appears.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Ancient tsunamis: Evidence of past tsunamis may indicate the likelihood of future ones

*** Carbon capture goes down the tubes

* Why the seahorse's tail is square

*** Traders' hormones may destabilize financial markets



*** A tale of two (soil) cities: Use of cover crops increases diversity in pore sizes, organic matter

* New method can make cheaper solar energy storage

Monitoring seawater reveals ocean acidification risks to Alaskan shellfish hatchery

* Dark matter map begins to reveal the Universe's early history



*** Astronomers predict fireworks from rare stellar encounter in 2018



Quantum computer storage may require the help of an intermediary to transmit information



*** Freezing single atoms to near absolute zero with kitchen microwaves brings quantum technology closer: Atoms frozen to within a millionth of a degree above absolute zero using microwaves

*** New Horizons: Pluto shows its spots to NASA probe



BP reaches $18.7 billion settlement over deadly 2010 spill

* Rising number of local governments set targets to cut emissions

* No need for new rules to protect butterflies from GM pollen: EU report

Genome study reveals how the woolly mammoth thrived in the cold

Solar powered plane breaks solo flight record across Pacific to Hawaii

Saving the West's iconic landscapes from wildfires, one steppe at a time

*** How Canada's emissions cuts could spur Keystone XL pipeline approval

Cuba's Environmental Concerns Grow With Prospect of U.S. Presence



Living at the 'mercy of the rain' in Somaliland

NASA: Coming Soon - Closest Approach (video)

Kenya to Benefit From New Funding for Water and Climate Programs

Gambia: Flooding in the News

Day by day, evidence piles up that our poor world has less of a chance than Crazy Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe's snowball.

peritaxi @

Link
2015 not doing bad at all.


As Alaska burns, Anchorage sets new records for heat and lack of snow


By Angela Fritz

Hot and dry conditions in Alaska have been toppling records over the past few months — many of which have been held for decades. And now, with two million acres burned already, 2015 appears well on its way to becoming the worst fire season on record for the state.


Link
Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 is forecasting a 3.2C ENSO also the Euro is similar on the July update it appears.
Link?
Chan-Hom's going streaking.
Quoting 112. JustDucky251:



You make mistakes that often? Doesn't seem that often.


It is extremely rare that Grothar will make a mistake. I suspect that he does make the rare mistake just so that we know that he is human. It is extremely difficult for me catch him in a mistake. I would need a dictionary, a thesaurus and countless scientific journals to do so. Even then they would have to be in 14 different languages and translated back to English for me. Grothar made a not uncommon mistake with a link. That is the ONLY way that I could catch Grothar in a mistake. It is so extremely rare that I could catch Grothar in a mistake that I tend to highlight it when I do. All of this is true, but I suspect that Grothar would say that Mrs. Grothar would disagree that his mistakes are that rare. :)
Quoting 138. TimSoCal:

Chan-Hom's going streaking.

Tug of war
Fires and smoke in northern Alaska
Aqua/MODIS
2015/182
07/01/2015
22:40 UTC



Link

The fires are starting to cross the Brooks Range on to the coastal plain. The smoke is now blowing out over the Arctic Sea Ice.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST July 3 2015
=======================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Raquel (17F) [1000 hPa] located at 7.0S 160.5E. Depression moving south at about 4 knots. Position poor based on multispectral visible enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 24 hours. Deep convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours with cloud tops cooling in the past 6 hours. The system lies just to the north of an upper ridge in a moderate to high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global models agree on a southward movement and later southwest with slight intensification.

The potential for Tropical Depression Raquel to re-develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is MODERATE.
Fires and smoke in northern Canada

Terra/MODIS
2015/182
07/01/2015
19:10 UTC

Link
Posting this story on its own because it's so cool.

Astronomers predict fireworks from rare stellar encounter in 2018



I don't think people were expecting this...

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 745 PM CDT for east
central Wilson County...

at 733 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located just southeast of Lebanon... moving east at 25 mph.

Hazard... tornado.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon and Tuckers Crossroads.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors... in a
Mobile home... or in a vehicle... move to the closest substantial
shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3615 8631 3619 8630 3623 8614 3607 8618
time... Mot... loc 0033z 273deg 16kt 3618 8628

Tornado... radar indicated
hail... <.75in


21
Quoting 137. Gearsts:

Link?

Quoting 127. StormTrackerScott:



You mean October. Also what you guys are getting is what we had in June. June was insane lightning wise here with so many trees being hit in my complex the last several weeks especially from last Tuesday's storm.


Well, we aren't getting squat at my house, but the area sure had its share of lightning today. The last measurable rain at my location was last Thursday, around 0.5".

Also, I thought our rainy season ends sometime in September, whereas South FL's season actually ends in October. I could be wrong though, I'll have to look it up.
Quoting 24. sar2401:

We have a lot less people than Texas and Florida. You can see the higher number in Georgia, with more people. It would be interesting to see the same numbers in terms of deaths per capita, which would give a lot better indication of states with problems than raw number of deaths.


Agreed.
Quoting 130. StormTrackerScott:



Wait till the WWB gets there!
Hi Scott! Sorry I don't know, but what is the WWB? It sounds sexy.
Just got back from a day trip to Auburn so my fiance could do some retail therapy and eat some ribs at Smokey Pit. Great place if you find yourself in Auburn. Drove through several cells on the way up with torrential rain, lighting just below insane, and even a little quarter size hail. Radar on the phone looked like the storms were going through Eufaula as well. Checked the gauge when we got back and it did rain - a lousy 0.02". Rats! Typical thunderstorms. If you're under one, things are rosy. A couple miles away and you get nothing or a lousy 0.02".

I read the Tennessee laws about breaking out a window for a human or animal locked in a car. Just to be clear, you must first call 911. When you do, get an ETA for when a unit will be on scene. If it's five minutes or less, let the police handle it. You do have to make a judgement call regarding the condition of the human or animal in the car. If a child is running around the seats crying and carrying on, the child's condition isn't going to worsen enough that you should break out a window. If a child or animal is lethargic and not responsive, then it's another issue. What you want to avoid is breaking a window when the human or animal is not displaying signs of real distress. In that case, it's likely the driver really did run in somewhere for a minute, and may be back out just as you shatter his window. I'm not defending a driver who leaves a human or animal for even a minute, but you can get in an immediate confrontation that is likely to have bad results for all concerned. This happened to me once when I was on duty and it took pepper spray and a taser to get the guy under control. Having the law on your side won't prevent something you might not be prepared to handle.

If you've decided you will break out a window if the situation demands it, have the right tool to do it. The best one is LifeSaver hammer at about $25, but you really don't need a cop quality tool. Amazon sells a Chinese copy that will work almost as well for the couple of times you'd ever use it, for $4.01 and free shipping if you're an Amazon Prime member. It also has a seatbelt cutter, which is a useful tool if you or someone else is trapped in a car by a seatbelt that won't disengage. Read the instructions about how to use it and where to hit the window. If you do it right, almost all the fragments will fall to the ground on the outside of the car. If you happen to get stopped and an officer sees the window breaker, just be prepared to explain why you have it. Window breakers are classified as burglary tools in many states.
The Northeast coast of Greenland today :

Terra/MODIS
2015/183
07/02/2015
21:20 UTC

Link

Note the smoke coming from Alaska and Canada.
The Northeast coast of Greenland today :

Terra/MODIS
2015/183
07/02/2015Link
21:20 UTC



Note the smoke coming from Alaska and Canada.
For this to have any Sig ificant meaning there must be a determination between the effect of fire suppression and the well known long term consequences of that, and long term climate change related fires.


Quoting 136. ColoradoBob1:



As Alaska burns, Anchorage sets new records for heat and lack of snow


By Angela Fritz

Hot and dry conditions in Alaska have been toppling records over the past few months — many of which have been held for decades. And now, with two million acres burned already, 2015 appears well on its way to becoming the worst fire season on record for the state.


Link

Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:



Agreed.
I sent Jan Null an email asking if he had broken down the deaths per capita or would be willing to do so. A high amount of deaths may not look the same on a per capita, or per 100,000 residents basis.

Jan Null, for those that don't know him, is one of the best meteorologists I've ever met. Even when he was lead forecaster at the San Francisco office, he's stay up until two in the morning working out a detailed forecast for an area where we had a big missing person search or other operation. He's also one of the most knowledgeable guys I know of about ENSO and the history of ENSO events. If you want to know what an expert thinks about this El Nino, follow Jan Null on Twitter. No hype, and he always backs up his predictions with the real facts.
Lookin' a lot like July. :\

Quoting 155. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lookin' a lot like July. :\




Why do you have the weird graphics? I thought those haven't been released yet?
Quoting 145. Huracan94:

I don't think people were expecting this...

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 745 PM CDT for east
central Wilson County...

at 733 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located just southeast of Lebanon... moving east at 25 mph.


I'm assuming this is in Tennessee. I don't know that people ever "expect" a tornado but the SPC does have that part of Tennessee highlighted with a slight risk of severe weather. This is also a "radar indicated" tornado. I don't know the numbers but, from my experience, a large number of these are never confirmed as a tornado on the ground. Sometimes it's just a funnel cloud that might touch down for a few minutes and then dissipate. I've gotten to the point that, unless there's a trained spotter who sees a tornado, or a member of the public gets a picture or video, I'm skeptical of radar indicated rotation. Doesn't mean this might not really be a tornado but, in this day and age, someone is going to see and report it.
The smoke from Alaska crossing the Mackenzie delta.

Aqua/MODIS
2015/183
07/02/2015
20:05 UTC

Link


Low 90's for awhile, rain chance in there....
sar, mail
Quoting 135. Gearsts:

2015 not doing bad at all.

Doing great if you want a quiet Caribbean hurricane season with not much rain. I keep waiting for that relaxed shear I have heard so much about.
Quoting 160. aquak9:

sar, mail
I see it, thanks. I shall read and respond as soon as I cook and eat my microwaved chicken pot pie. For some reason, I'm absolutely starving today.
Quoting 120. SunnyDaysFla:



I thought it currently is moderate? When did it change and who designated it as strong?
It is classified as moderate. Forecasts for a strong to super El Nino are being provided courtesy of the STS Forecast Center.
Quoting 162. sar2401:
I see it, thanks. I shall read and respond as soon as I cook and eat my microwaved chicken pot pie. For some reason, I'm absolutely starving today.

those marie calendars ones are to DIE for.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
9:00 AM JST July 3 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.5N 173.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 8.5N 172.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

Posting this story on its own because it's so cool.


ok that was cool but i felt like i should have been eating popcorn :)
167. txjac
@ sar 150

"
Just got back from a day trip to Auburn so my fiance could do some retail therapy and eat some ribs at Smokey Pit. Great place if you find yourself in Auburn. Drove through several cells on the way up with torrential rain, lighting just below insane, and even a little quarter size hail."

When are you gonna make an honest woman with your fiance? You know I'm coming to the wedding ....Alabama isnt that far away!
Quoting 161. sar2401:

Doing great if you want a quiet Caribbean hurricane season with not much rain. I keep waiting for that relaxed shear I have heard so much about.



good luck with that that is not going too happen this year the Caribbean hurricane season is shut down for good this season with way above norml wind shear
169. txjac
Quoting 164. aquak9:


those marie calendars ones are to DIE for.


I wont even let myself try one as I know that they would be super delicious ...salmon and spinach for me this evening

Was a "warm" walk with the pup this afternoon ...did it in two parts as I didnt want to put the little fella in heat exhaustion. Missing my cloud cover and afternoon showers


copyright Japan Meteorological Agency
Quoting 168. Tazmanian:




good luck with that that is not going too happen this year the Caribbean hurricane season is shut down for good this season with way above norml wind shear


Yeah Wunderkid is in for a long Summer as well as some others on here as El-Nino takes it to another gear. Already near 3C anomalies across Nino 1&2 with much more warming coming. We could have a record ENSO this Fall.

Orlando Int'l Airport had winds of 46 gusting to 70 mph today during the storms apparently. Thought that this is fairly noteworthy. We had a couple gusts to maybe 35 mph here.

153. Krycek1984
1:19 AM GMT on July 03, 2015

For this to have any Sigificant meaning there must be a determination between the effect of fire suppression and the well known long term consequences of that, and long term climate change related fires.


You think people , have been fighting fires in Alaska , and fuel load has jumped ?

How bout this , today only 15 % of the active fires have people fighting them.
Alaska is not the lower 49. Parts of Alaska and Canada tonight are burning where fire hasn't burned in 5,000 years.

And these fires are burning deep into peat. Which means that next spring , Fires will break out just because winter didn't kill them. The Canadians found 6 fires this spring that did just the same thing.

153. Krycek1984
I been following fire for years . Trust me fire fighting in ALASKA it's what you think. And it is great example between the lower 49 and them. When fire starts in Alaska, if it doesn't threaten anything , they just let burn. So this entire idea that fighting fires is called into question. The problem is tonight , places that never burned in 5,000 years are spending , and are spewing and ash over Green;and.




153. Krycek1984

If you believe all of this is "normal" .
Buckle your chin strap , you ain't seen nothing yet.
Quoting 172. HurrMichaelOrl:

Orlando Int'l Airport had winds of 46 gusting to 70 mph today during the storms apparently. Thought that this is fairly noteworthy. We had a couple gusts to maybe 35 mph here.


Wait till October thru March if you think that's bad. FL is in for a rough ride this Fall/Winter. Last Super El-Nino dumped 30" to 40" of rain across C FL DJFM timeframe.
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah Wunderkid is in for a long Summer as well as some others on here as El-Nino takes it to another gear. Already near 3C anomalies across Nino 1&2 with much more warming coming. We could have a record ENSO this Fall


hey STS dont you think this is a tad early too be seeeing this kind of tap with a 992 mb low with sub tropical going all the way out too the W PAC and look how far S that tap is has far S has WA

Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah Wunderkid is in for a long Summer as well as some others on here as El-Nino takes it to another gear. Already near 3C anomalies across Nino 1&2 with much more warming coming. We could have a record ENSO this Fall


You're basing that on what? Have you even attempted to look at even one dataset that covers the entire historical record? The weekly NINO 1-2 numbers are averaging just barely above 2.5C, 1997-98 was a full 1C warmer at this time in the year w/ anomalies that were already beginning to approach 4C in the NINO 1-2.
153. Krycek1984

These fires are not just burning trees , they are burning 5 and 6 feet into ground. And they are burning in places we have never seen before.
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:

Strong El-Nino now in progress and is going to get a lot stronger with likely a Super El-Nino come September or October.






Good, but only if we get a very interesting year next year thanks to this super El Nino.
Could this El Nino be-
dare I say it-

UNPRECEDENTED?
Quoting 176. Webberweather53:



You're basing that on what? Have you even attempted to look at even one dataset that covers the entire historical record? The weekly NINO 1-2 numbers are averaging just barely above 2.5C, 1997-98 was a full 1C warmer at this time in the year w/ anomalies that were already beginning to approach 4C in the NINO 1-2.


LOL! We have a WWB much stronger than any WWB in 1997 coming across the Pacific right now so expect sea surface anomalies across the Pacific to rise sharply come later in July. Very possible Nino 3.4 could near 2C in a few weeks. Basically we have a June 1997 WWB but in July 2015 but much stronger than the June 1997 event. So yes get ready as it is coming and its coming on big time!

Not only are these westerly wind anomalies but this is a true Westerly wind coming into Nino 3.4. So we have a very strong wind burst moving across the Pacific changing the trade winds from easterly to westerly. Quite impressive!


Quoting 149. Llamaluvr:

Hi Scott! Sorry I don't know, but what is the WWB? It sounds sexy.
WWB is a Westerly Wind Burst. Here's a practical example of the WWB in action:

"Strong Westerlies Push El Nino Toward Extreme Event"


Quoting 177. ColoradoBob1:

153. Krycek1984

These fires are not just burning trees , they are burning 5 and 6 feet into ground. And they are burning in places we have never seen before.
faster and faster we go
Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! We have a WWB much stronger than any WWB in 1997 coming across the Pacific right now so expect sea surface anomalies across the Pacific to rise sharply come later in July. Very possible Nino 3.4 could near 2C in a few weeks. Basically we have a June 1997 WWB but in July 2015 but much stronger than the June 1997 event. So yes get ready as it is coming and its coming on big time!

Not only are these westerly wind anomalies but this is a true Westerly wind coming into Nino 3.4. So we have a very strong wind burst moving across the Pacific changing the trade winds from easterly to westerly. Quite impressive!





plzs look at post 175 i find that vary impressive for late july too where you would normly find that in OCT
Quoting 174. StormTrackerScott:



Wait till October thru March if you think that's bad. FL is in for a rough ride this Fall/Winter. Last Super El-Nino dumped 30" to 40" of rain across C FL DJFM timeframe.


Can't wait! No death and destruction wished on anyone, just an extended period of active, interesting, wet weather.
Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! We have a WWB much stronger than any WWB in 1997 coming across the Pacific right now so expect sea surface anomalies across the Pacific to rise sharply come later in July. Very possible Nino 3.4 could near 2C in a few weeks. Basically we have a June 1997 WWB but in July 2015 but much stronger than the June 1997 event. So yes get ready as it is coming and its coming on big time!

Not only are these westerly wind anomalies but this is a true Westerly wind coming into Nino 3.4. So we have a very strong wind burst moving across the Pacific changing the trade winds from easterly to westerly. Quite impressive!




It's stronger than the 1997 event? Can you provide some proof to that... Oh wait... ENSO operates in the seasonal band (>90-120 days) anyway, it's not hard to surpass a specific event when you're intentionally cherry picking a few weeks in the year for comparison... These exceedingly short timescales are susceptible to atmospheric white noise & intreseasonal variability that may significantly influence the progression of the coincident ENSO event.




Quoting 185. Webberweather53:



It's stronger than the 1997 event? Can you provide some proof to that... Oh wait... ENSO operates in the seasonal band (>90-120 days) anyway, it's not hard to surpass a specific event when you're intentionally cherry picking a few weeks in the year for comparison... These exceedingly short timescales are susceptible to atmospheric white noise & intreseasonal variability that may significantly influence the progression of the coincident ENSO event.





Hey Webber. I'm obviously not an expert in the ENSO field but where do you personally think the tri-monthly anomaly will peak?
Quoting 157. sar2401:

I'm assuming this is in Tennessee. I don't know that people ever "expect" a tornado but the SPC does have that part of Tennessee highlighted with a slight risk of severe weather. This is also a "radar indicated" tornado. I don't know the numbers but, from my experience, a large number of these are never confirmed as a tornado on the ground. Sometimes it's just a funnel cloud that might touch down for a few minutes and then dissipate. I've gotten to the point that, unless there's a trained spotter who sees a tornado, or a member of the public gets a picture or video, I'm skeptical of radar indicated rotation. Doesn't mean this might not really be a tornado but, in this day and age, someone is going to see and report it.


Good assumption, Wilson County is next door to Davidson County, the seat of Nashville.

Yeah, I was shocked to hear about the warning, yes there's a slight risk, but tornadoes weren't expected from the NWS office, they had a near zero shot on their graphic this morning. Thunderstorm was small too, not much lightning unlike every single other storm the last two days.
This watch is weird, considering there is flash flood warnings currently active (what I mean is, that this is late), including a warning in western middle Tennessee, so why they aren't included escapes me.



This was from this morning:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
237 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy rainfall expected across Middle Tennessee today into
Saturday...

A series of weather disturbances are forecast to move through the
region with the potential for 2 to 3 inches of rainfall through
Saturday, as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected across middle Tennessee. With high atmospheric moisture
content, these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall that could quickly fill creeks and streams along with
pooling of water in low lying areas. Motorists are urged to drive
with caution where water covers the road.


So much for the WPC's 5-7" forecast.
Quoting 185. Webberweather53:



It's stronger than the 1997 event? Can you provide some proof to that... Oh wait... ENSO operates in the seasonal band (>90-120 days) anyway, it's not hard to surpass a specific event when you're intentionally cherry picking a few weeks in the year for comparison... These exceedingly short timescales are susceptible to atmospheric white noise & intreseasonal variability that may significantly influence the progression of the coincident ENSO event.







Your kidding right.
Quoting 164. aquak9:


those marie calendars ones are to DIE for.
It is a Marie Callender pie, and they are to die for. I forgot how huge it was until I started cooking it. I'm still munching away on it. I can only have one a couple times a year because it contains almost my daily allowance of salt. Salt is one of the triggers for my Meniere's. If I'm not careful, I end up on the floor barfing. For the next 24 hours it will be tomatoes from the garden, some frozen veggies, french fries, and peaches. Kind of a weird combination but you get used to it when you need a low sodium diet. I'll reply to your mail tomorrow when I'm not feeling quite so dopey. It was really hot and humid today, and these thrift stores never seem to have working A/C. On top of that, the same group of children that follows me around Walmart screaming and crying were apparently on a field trip in Auburn today. Why can't parents keep their kids quiet in stores now? I was able to do it with my kids because they knew they didn't get to stay in the store if they didn't hush up. Now mothers and grandmothers just go right on shopping with some four year old kicking the slats out of the shopping cart and howling at the top of their lungs about something. There are times I've fantasized about a little dose of pepper spray for junior and mom. ;-)
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jul 1

The CFS shows the strongest westerly wind burst on record for July- crushes 1997. #ElNino #climate @TropicalTidbits
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach Jul 1

June 28-30, 2015 have all had stronger westerlies in the central Pac than any other day in June since 1979. #ElNino
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Jun 29 Hudson, NH

Likely the strongest Westerly Wind Burst on record during Summer o/the Western-Central Pacific this week. #ElNino2015
Quoting 188. Astrometeor:

This watch is weird, considering there is flash flood warnings currently active (what I mean is, that this is late), including a warning in western middle Tennessee, so why they aren't included escapes me.



This was from this morning:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
237 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

...Heavy rainfall expected across Middle Tennessee today into
Saturday...

A series of weather disturbances are forecast to move through the
region with the potential for 2 to 3 inches of rainfall through
Saturday, as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected across middle Tennessee. With high atmospheric moisture
content, these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall that could quickly fill creeks and streams along with
pooling of water in low lying areas. Motorists are urged to drive
with caution where water covers the road.


So much for the WPC's 5-7" forecast.

From their 3:48 pm CDT Special Weather Statement:

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY
. WITH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD QUICKLY FILL CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH
POOLING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE
WITH CAUTION WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SOME AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ALREADY
...INCLUDING MACON COUNTY AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION. THESE AREAS HAVE REPORTED PONDING ON ROADS AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME ROAD CLOSURES. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IMPACTS COULD ARISE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO TAKE EXTRA FLOOD PRECAUTIONS IN THESE
AREAS.
Quoting 185. Webberweather53:



It's stronger than the 1997 event? Can you provide some proof to that... Oh wait... ENSO operates in the seasonal band (>90-120 days) anyway, it's not hard to surpass a specific event when you're intentionally cherry picking a few weeks in the year for comparison... These exceedingly short timescales are susceptible to atmospheric white noise & intreseasonal variability that may significantly influence the progression of the coincident ENSO event.







The Westerly Event just kicked in but good try cherry picking data from May/June as this WWB just kicked off a few days ago. Almost to easy debating you anymore.

So again webber lets reread the post I made.

LOL! We have a WWB much stronger than any WWB in 1997 coming across the Pacific right now so expect sea surface anomalies across the Pacific to rise sharply come later in July. Very possible Nino 3.4 could near 2C in a few weeks. Basically we have a June 1997 WWB but in July 2015 but much stronger than the June 1997 event. So yes get ready as it is coming and its coming on big time! So when you cherry pick a June 1997 map when I clearly state July WWB which is stronger than the June 1997. Come on man!

Not only are these westerly wind anomalies but this is a true Westerly wind coming into Nino 3.4. So we have a very strong wind burst moving across the Pacific changing the trade winds from easterly to westerly. Quite impressive!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL STORM EGAY
11:00 AM PhST July 3 2015
======================
Tropical Storm “EGAY” has maintained its strength as it moves closer to northern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Egay (LINFA) [997 hPa] located at 15.6N 126.3E or 310 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #1

Impacts:
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters

Luzon region
-----------------
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan including Calayan
3. Babuyan group of Islands

Additional Information
====================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fisher folk and small sea crafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of Bicol Region and Samar provinces are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
As I have been affectionately calling it, Scott's El Nino is looking like it will shut down the MDR before it has a chance to awaken.
These values are some of the most extreme I have ever seen. Let's hope a few T.Waves sneak through with some much needed rain in the Caribbean.
Carib, I am hoping for me and you. Scott should have all the rain he could hope for in FL.
Quoting 188. Astrometeor:

This watch is weird, considering there is flash flood warnings currently active (what I mean is, that this is late), including a warning in western middle Tennessee, so why they aren't included escapes me.


I can give you a good guess. Look at the area with the FFWatch and now look at the area covered by Memphis to the west and Nashville to the east on the CWA map. I suspect that Nashville tried to coordinate with Memphis, but Memphis refused to issue a FFWatch for any portion of their area. Nashville went ahead and issued theirs so that leaves the rest of Tennessee hanging with no watch. Why Memphis doesn't want to issue a watch I don't know, but I see this all the time here, being at the edge of three different CWA's.

Quoting 197. LemieT:

As I have been affectionately calling it, Scott's El Nino is looking like it will shut down the MDR before it has a chance to awaken.
These values are some of the most extreme I have ever seen. Let's hope a few T.Waves sneak through with some much needed rain in the Caribbean.
Carib, I am hoping for me and you. Scott should have all the rain he could hope for in FL.
no it not fla its cali not yet but a short while
Quoting 179. aquak9:

Could this El Nino be-
dare I say it-

UNPRECEDENTED?


Too funny...

What will an unprecedentd El Niño do to the world?
JMA increased the intensity of Linfa (EGAY)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM LINFA (1510)
12:00 PM JST July 3 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Linfa (992 hPa) located at 15.3N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.8N 124.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 194. LAbonbon:


From their 3:48 pm CDT Special Weather Statement:

HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY
. WITH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD QUICKLY FILL CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH
POOLING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE
WITH CAUTION WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SOME AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ALREADY
...INCLUDING MACON COUNTY AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION. THESE AREAS HAVE REPORTED PONDING ON ROADS AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME ROAD CLOSURES. ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IMPACTS COULD ARISE WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO TAKE EXTRA FLOOD PRECAUTIONS IN THESE
AREAS.


I don't know how people are getting so much water, rain gauges under trees?

I've gotten less than an inch the last few days, and we had 5 rounds of thunderstorms the last 24 hours.

Quoting 202. Astrometeor:



I don't know how people are getting so much water, rain gauges under trees?

I've gotten less than an inch the last few days, and we had 5 rounds of thunderstorms the last 24 hours.

No clue. I had just happened to read that when I saw your post. Was watching TN a bit a hydrus was concerned (yesterday, day before?) about the potential for precip in TN.
CFSv2 for December

Unprecedented in Oklahoma

Oklahoma City was also above normal in June (their month with the highest average for rainfall), 5.77" compared to the average of 4.93", and July is off to a good start. 1981-2010 normal annual rainfall for Oklahoma City, 36.52", with the total for the year so far as of 11 p.m. CDT, 35.75".

The wettest year on record in Oklahoma City is 2007 with 56.97". The second wettest year is 2013, with 52.78" Weather records in Oklahoma City began in 1890.
Quoting 187. Astrometeor:



Good assumption, Wilson County is next door to Davidson County, the seat of Nashville.

Yeah, I was shocked to hear about the warning, yes there's a slight risk, but tornadoes weren't expected from the NWS office, they had a near zero shot on their graphic this morning. Thunderstorm was small too, not much lightning unlike every single other storm the last two days.
So far, there are no tornado reports from Tennessee. There are no tornado reports from anywhere, actually. From what I understand, it's up to the meteorologist looking at the radar if he or she issues a tornado warning. My experience is some of them will issue a warning based on any sign of rotation. We had one in Birmingham in 2011 who has thankfully been reassigned, hopefully to some outpost in Alaska. After the big outbreak in April, 2011, every time he was on, the number of radar based tornado warnings went up drastically. We have to activate the Skywarn radio net any time there's a tornado warning for our coverage area. We had times when the net was up for eight or nine hours straight, which just happened to coincide with his shift. Over the next two months, not one of the warnings he generated turned into a confirmed tornado. Not one. I understand about better safe than sorry but, at some point, there's a risk avoidance factor that just causes warning fatigue. It was sure causing fatigue for those of us on the net. I don't know what happened but, after some back and forth, we got a note that he was being transferred to Norman for additional training. We didn't really care where, as long as it wan't here. :-)
Well the 2015 hurricane season is done for the Atlantic. What's your prediction for next year. Mine is 17 5 3.
Quoting 207. sar2401:

So far, there are no tornado reports from Tennessee. There are no tornado reports from anywhere, actually. From what I understand, it's up to the meteorologist looking at the radar if he or she issues a tornado warning. My experience is some of them will issue a warning based on any sign of rotation. We had one in Birmingham in 2011 who has thankfully been reassigned, hopefully to some outpost in Alaska. After the big outbreak in April, 2011, every time he was on, the number of radar based tornado warnings went up drastically. We have to activate the Skywarn radio net any time there's a tornado warning for our coverage area. We had times when the net was up for eight or nine hours straight, which just happened to coincide with his shift. Over the next two months, not one of the warnings he generated turned into a confirmed tornado. Not one. I understand about better safe than sorry but, at some point, there's a risk avoidance factor that just causes warning fatigue. It was sure causing fatigue for those of us on the net. I don't know what happened but, after some back and forth, we got a note that he was being transferred to Norman for additional training. We didn't really care where, as long as it wan't here. :-)


Don't be sending the weather forecasting rejects up here. Send them to Miami. Today's Forecast, hot, humid and it will rain at one point. Repeat for the next day.
Quoting 133. BaltimoreBrian:

A tale of two (soil) cities: Use of cover crops increases diversity in pore sizes, organic matter



Great article on the soil.
Quoting 204. LAbonbon:


No clue. I had just happened to read that when I saw your post. Was watching TN a bit a hydrus was concerned (yesterday, day before?) about the potential for precip in TN.


I remember his post, I think he had seen some good rains. He lives close to Manchester if I remember correctly, which is SE of town.

Looks like the Nashville Dome is working for me, then. Hopefully the fireworks on the 4th go through as planned, there's thunderstorms in the forecast. :/
Quoting 190. sar2401:

It is a Marie Callender pie, and they are to die for. I forgot how huge it was until I started cooking it. I'm still munching away on it. I can only have one a couple times a year because it contains almost my daily allowance of salt. Salt is one of the triggers for my Meniere's. If I'm not careful, I end up on the floor barfing. For the next 24 hours it will be tomatoes from the garden, some frozen veggies, french fries, and peaches. Kind of a weird combination but you get used to it when you need a low sodium diet. I'll reply to your mail tomorrow when I'm not feeling quite so dopey. It was really hot and humid today, and these thrift stores never seem to have working A/C. On top of that, the same group of children that follows me around Walmart screaming and crying were apparently on a field trip in Auburn today. Why can't parents keep their kids quiet in stores now? I was able to do it with my kids because they knew they didn't get to stay in the store if they didn't hush up. Now mothers and grandmothers just go right on shopping with some four year old kicking the slats out of the shopping cart and howling at the top of their lungs about something. There are times I've fantasized about a little dose of pepper spray for junior and mom. ;-)


I have a second job at a Winn-Dixie and am frustrated that they won't let me use my Redneck's Store Environment Improvement System - a wad of cotton balls and duct tape - on the screaming little brats.
Quoting 167. txjac:

@ sar 150

"
Just got back from a day trip to Auburn so my fiance could do some retail therapy and eat some ribs at Smokey Pit. Great place if you find yourself in Auburn. Drove through several cells on the way up with torrential rain, lighting just below insane, and even a little quarter size hail."

When are you gonna make an honest woman with your fiance? You know I'm coming to the wedding ....Alabama isnt that far away!
LOL. We've set the date three times now but trying to coordinate with her three children in three different states, my son who works all over the country, my best man, poor guy, who keeps throwing his back out and ending up in the hospital, and assorted other friends and relatives, the logistics have gotten to be a real nightmare. We're hoping for mid-August, before the grandkids go back to school and the times should be right for everyone else. I'll let you know when we have an exact date. You're more than welcome to come since we plan to hold the reception at McDonalds, next to the drive thru window, and everyone has to buy their own #3 combo. I told her one more blown date and we're eloping to Vegas, but only when the high drops below 100. :-)
Pretty weather excitement (delightfully windy right now, a grand change from yesterday's blow dryer effect.)

This:


Looked like this in real life:


Took a while to get here, but it dropped visibility down to less than a quarter mile in minutes when it did.
Quoting 213. JustDucky251:



I have a second job at a Winn-Dixie and am frustrated that they won't let me use my Redneck's Store Environment Improvement System - a wad of cotton balls and duct tape - on the screaming little brats.


The ONE time me and my brother were loud in a store, not only did Mom threaten to hit us in front of everyone, but the manager asked us to be quiet or he would throw us out of his store. Not a peep was heard after that.
Quoting 216. Astrometeor:



The ONE time me and my brother were loud in a store, not only did Mom threaten to hit us in front of everyone, but the manager asked us to be quiet or he would throw us out of his store. Not a peep was heard after that.


I raised my boys as a single dad. The first time they got noisy in a store we went home and they didn't get to go back for a month. They got the message.
Here ya go Sar, apparently confirmed tornado in Watertown, TN (this is in Wilson County)

Link

The image looks more like a wall cloud to me, trees make it a lousy picture, but you can see the nice storm cloud above it.

We'll see what the NWS says tomorrow after damage surveys.
Quoting 195. StormTrackerScott:



The Westerly Event just kicked in but good try cherry picking data from May/June as this WWB just kicked off a few days ago. Almost to easy debating you anymore.

So again webber lets reread the post I made.

LOL! We have a WWB much stronger than any WWB in 1997 coming across the Pacific right now so expect sea surface anomalies across the Pacific to rise sharply come later in July. Very possible Nino 3.4 could near 2C in a few weeks. Basically we have a June 1997 WWB but in July 2015 but much stronger than the June 1997 event. So yes get ready as it is coming and its coming on big time! So when you cherry pick a June 1997 map when I clearly state July WWB which is stronger than the June 1997. Come on man!

Not only are these westerly wind anomalies but this is a true Westerly wind coming into Nino 3.4. So we have a very strong wind burst moving across the Pacific changing the trade winds from easterly to westerly. Quite impressive!


You do realize that the El Nino Southern Oscillation is a seasonal phenomenon?

You're complaining about me cherry picking by using a lower frequency 60 day average of the lower tropospheric zonal wind anomalies because a new WWB has just initiated within the last few days? If you eventually decided to finally dive into literature on the physics of ENSO, you'd quickly see the irony in this statement.

Wang and Picaut (2004), Neelin et al (1998), & Enfield (1989) are all good places to start.
Link
Link
Link

It doesn't matter if I moved the starting point all the way back to March, we're still trailing 1997-98 by a large margin in terms of U850 in the equatorial Pacific...

(I guess you'll find another excuse to completely disregard this 120 day average that is well within (arguably, almost perfectly within) the confines of ENSO)

1997


This yr


Do you have some actual hard evidence to directly compare the June 1997 and the ongoing WWB, or are you making things up again? Thanks.
Interesting that the water vapor satellite images for the GOM have no dry patches, just an area of non-wet. Lots to work with there.
Quoting 213. JustDucky251:



I have a second job at a Winn-Dixie and am frustrated that they won't let me use my Redneck's Store Environment Improvement System - a wad of cotton balls and duct tape - on the screaming little brats.
There is no way I could ever work in a big retail store. Because of my Meniere's, I'm functionally deaf on my left ear, but I have just enough left at the right frequency that it picks up every squalling brat or yappy dog in the neighborhood. Its not just that those noises are annoying, they are downright painful. After about three days in the Winn-Dixie I'd either kill someone or do the Van Gogh thing and slice off my ear. :-0
Eastern Pacific: Two areas that can form into a tropical cyclone. The one that will form first and outside the basin is Invest 95E. 95E is disorganized but the environment can support its intensification. Model guidance concurs. The other area may develop slowly throughout the week as conditions will become favorable as it moves West-Northwestward.

Western Pacific: TS Chan-hom is weakening temporarily as it is experiencing higher wind shear volumes. After the next 24 hours or so, it should be able to strong again.

Read more...
Quoting 218. Astrometeor:

Here ya go Sar, apparently confirmed tornado in Watertown, TN (this is in Wilson County)

Link

The image looks more like a wall cloud to me, trees make it a lousy picture, but you can see the nice storm cloud above it.

We'll see what the NWS says tomorrow after damage surveys.

There is also a video on Youtube showing the tornado on the ground with debris near the Wilson Co Fairgrounds. I would post it but don't know how :(
"You don't really believe any of this Super El Nino Mumbo Jumbo do you ?"...



Quoting 221. sar2401:

There is no way I could ever work in a big retail store. Because of my Meniere's, I'm functionally deaf on my left ear, but I have just enough left at the right frequency that it picks up every squalling brat or yappy dog in the neighborhood. Its not just that those noises are annoying, they are downright painful. After about three days in the Winn-Dixie I'd either kill someone or do the Van Gogh thing and slice off my ear. :-0


A real estate tip then - never buy a house near an airport. Jet lag will have a whole new meaning!

My comics page (gocomics) has updated for the day, so now I can go to bed. Night all.
95E Viz to Night IR Loop

Report finally made it to SPC:



Edit: With that, I'm out. Huracan, you can just link it. Embedding here has gotten strange. Copy the URL and paste it into the link box that appears when you click on the link image from the options. Right next to the symbol for italics on the comment box.
Quoting 218. Astrometeor:

Here ya go Sar, apparently confirmed tornado in Watertown, TN (this is in Wilson County)

Link

The image looks more like a wall cloud to me, trees make it a lousy picture, but you can see the nice storm cloud above it.

We'll see what the NWS says tomorrow after damage surveys.
We shall see. The pictures of the storm don't look like tornado and the damage appears to be consistent with straight line winds. If there was a tornado, it must have been on the ground for a matter of a few minutes at most. I will say that calling this a "confirmed tornado" on TV is clearly inaccurate, since nothing has been confirmed so far.
Quoting 227. Astrometeor:

Report finally made it to SPC:


It only took them about six hours. Also, why is this one being reported in Davidson County when the tornado supposedly occured in Wilson County? Two different events?
Mine was 4-1-1 for 2015.

Quoting 208. HurricaneAndre:

Well the 2015 hurricane season is done for the Atlantic. What's your prediction for next year. Mine is 17 5 3.
Quoting 225. JustDucky251:



A real estate tip then - never buy a house near an airport. Jet lag will have a whole new meaning!

My comics page (gocomics) has updated for the day, so now I can go to bed. Night all.
No, I avoid house near airports, main highways, and anywhere near a factory. I live on a nice quiet residential street and my ears are happy. :-)
Could you let it play out and either eat crow or let the crow go in about 3 months?????
Enough is enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't really need the hourly updates as it take months for this
to transpire. If it becomes urgent, Dr. M. will surely create a post.

And thank God, I have never known any one's family members that have died of heat stroke!!!!

Quoting 219. Webberweather53:



You do realize that the El Nino Southern Oscillation is a seasonal phenomenon?

You're complaining about me cherry picking by using a lower frequency 60 day average of the lower tropospheric zonal wind anomalies because a new WWB has just initiated within the last few days? If you eventually decided to finally dive into literature on the physics of ENSO, you'd quickly see the irony in this statement.

Wang and Picaut (2004), Neelin et al (1998), & Enfield (1989) are all good places to start.
Link
Link
Link

It doesn't matter if I moved the starting point all the way back to March, we're still trailing 1997-98 by a large margin in terms of U850 in the equatorial Pacific...

(I guess you'll find another excuse to completely disregard this 120 day average that is well within (arguably, almost perfectly within) the confines of ENSO)

1997


This yr


Do you have some actual hard evidence to directly compare the June 1997 and the ongoing WWB, or are you making things up again? Thanks.
Quoting 217. JustDucky251:



I raised my boys as a single dad. The first time they got noisy in a store we went home and they didn't get to go back for a month. They got the message.
Yeah, kids are fast learners. If they learn not to carry on in a public place, they won't. If they learn is OK to carry on in a public place, they'll never stop.
Quoting 232. swflurker:

Could you let it play out and either eat crow or let the crow go in about 3 months?????
Enough is enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


He's providing some pretty good evidence compared to a stream of thoughts about what Scott would like to see happen with almost no evidence. I know very little about ENSO and El Nino so I find the things being provided by Webberweather very informative. As long as Scott continues to pick out things from a far greater body of data only because it supports his long held forecast for a super El Nino, I'm glad Webberweather is here to provide some balance. It's a weather blog, after all. If it really bothers you, just use the ignore button.
Quoting 223. Huracan94:


There is also a video on Youtube showing the tornado on the ground with debris near the Wilson Co Fairgrounds. I would post it but don't know how :(
It's amazing how fast these things get sent to the media and posted FB and YouTube. Like I wrote, if no one as a picture or video, I'm skeptical about the existence of a tornado, especially in a metropolitan area.
Quoting 216. Astrometeor:



The ONE time me and my brother were loud in a store, not only did Mom threaten to hit us in front of everyone, but the manager asked us to be quiet or he would throw us out of his store. Not a peep was heard after that.
If your mom threatened to hit you in front of everyone today she'd be in big trouble. It's one of the reasons stores are filled with screaming kids today.
Quoting 215. nonblanche:

Pretty weather excitement (delightfully windy right now, a grand change from yesterday's blow dryer effect.)

This:


Looked like this in real life:


Took a while to get here, but it dropped visibility down to less than a quarter mile in minutes when it did.
Any actual rain or just the clouds and dust passing by? There's still some moisture rotating around this huge upper level low that looks like it's close to you over Highway 50 now. It's 76 with rain in Reno right now so some of that moisture is hitting the ground. There's another big slug of moisture over Old Mexico now that's being pulled up through Arizona by the low and should get to you late Sunday or Monday. El Nino's normally get the monsoonal flow going, and it looks like this one will last a while yet. If nothing else, at least you get somewhat cooler temperatures.
Quoting 209. Dakster:



Don't be sending the weather forecasting rejects up here. Send them to Miami. Today's Forecast, hot, humid and it will rain at one point. Repeat for the next day.
LOL. They could also go to L.A. "Low clouds overnight and into the morning, clearing by noon. Sunny and pleasant this afternoon. Low clouds returning late tonight". I'll bet that covered 80% of all the non-winter forecasts there. Situations like this prolonged monsoonal flow are making them earn their money this summer.
Quoting 217. JustDucky251:



I raised my boys as a single dad. The first time they got noisy in a store we went home and they didn't get to go back for a month. They got the message.


My kids HATE going to the store.. The whine, complain, and when we get there try to rush things along. I am fast shopper anyways so that part doesn't bug me.

They are well behaved once they are out and typically always have been. I've been lucky in that regard.
Quoting 238. sar2401:

LOL. They could also go to L.A. "Low clouds overnight and into the morning, clearing by noon. Sunny and pleasant this afternoon. Low clouds returning late tonight". I'll bet that covered 80% of all the non-winter forecasts there. Situations like this prolonged monsoonal flow are making them earn their money this summer.


I can't even change my mind as fast as the weather changes up here... Hot, cold, sunny, cloudy, raining, snowing, hailing. windy, calm, foggy... And sometimes that only takes 15 minutes. If it always did it in order I could figure it out... For the past week or so, it's been pretty decent out though, so I really can't complain. Not that you could forecast that though.

Hasn't snowed since May, but we did have temps in the 40s last night and rain...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
15:00 PM JST July 3 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 8.7N 172.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 9.9N 170.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LINFA (1510)
15:00 AM JST July 3 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Linfa (990 hPa) located at 15.3N 126.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.9N 123.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.4N 121.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.8N 120.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
15:00 PM JST July 3 2015
==========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (985 hPa) located at 10.8N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 13.0N 146.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 15.4N 144.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 17.8N 141.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
RSMC Nadi

At 18:00 PM FST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EX-TC RAQUEL (17F) [998HPA] ANALYZED NEAR 7.0S 160.9E. POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 KNOTS WITHIN 40 TO 70 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE AREA EAST OF 160E.
Quoting 86. barbamz:


Source for updates.


Source for updates.

The Netherlands with their new record heat for July are getting hammered by very strong storms right now, and storms reach out all the way north to Norway.

(And thanks for the useful new entry on a serious subject, Bob. Hope it will help to save lives!)

Well, those burnt down four farms and caused a variety of other large fires... Also some golf ball hail. No injuries reported, fortunately, but one of those barns lost 2,000 piglets to the fire.
Link
Link
246. VR46L
Looks like a truly unprecedented record high in Dublin today .......






LMAO !!!!!!!!!

(must be true its on the internet }
Quoting 243. cRRKampen:


Well, those burnt down four farms and caused a variety of other large fires... Also some golf ball hail. No injuries reported, fortunately, but one of those barns lost 2,000 piglets to the fire.
Link
Link

Good morning everyone. Sorry to learn about the damage last night in the Netherlands. And those pics of the crazy lightning in the links are impressive! BTW, got two new words in Dutch: onweer = thunderstorm, noodweer = severe weather. ;-)


Quite unexpected, those storms crossed the border to the northern part of Germany in the wee hours of the day and were still raging in the morning, and there was/is another cluster of storms in the south (not in my place in the center of the country though). Now the northern ones have died, and temperatures are on a steep rise again. Let's see whether my place will see some downpour later (hopefully if not combined with large hail!). More see Estofex.org with its current outlook.


Surface analysis from 00z with high "Annelie" moving a bit to the east of Europe and the line of convergence with a front of low "Reinhard" over Germany.


Airmasses over Europe this morning 06z.
tw at 40w continues to have some turning and scattered showers acc/ with it. nhc says....AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER
TO BE ALONG 39W/40W BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.
Quoting 247. barbamz:


Good morning everyone. Sorry to learn about the damage last night in the Netherlands. And those pics of the crazy lightning in the links are impressive! BTW, got two new words in Dutch: onweer = thunderstorm, noodweer = severe weather. ;-)


Quite unexpected, those storms crossed the border to the northern part of Germany in the wee hours of the day and were still raging in the morning, and there was/is another cluster of storms in the south (not in my place in the center of the country though). Now the northern ones have died, and temperatures are on a steep rise again. Let's see whether my place will see some downpour later (hopefully if not combined with large hail!). More see Estofex.org with its current outlook.


Surface analysis from 00z with high "Annelie" moving a bit to the east of Europe and the line of convergence with a front of low "Reinhard" over Germany.


Airmasses over Europe this morning 06z.

And kind of a repetition of yesterday is up for tomorrow. Another huge zone of T850 >= 20° C moving over Holland and Germany, with Holland probably getting the same kind of split between a sea wind moderated west and extreme heat on the German border. This time temps in the centre of Germany should also go way up, they didn't do that too badly yesterday as highest temps in Germany were near the Dutch border.
I've seen more severe storms so far this summer in SC than the prior 5 years combined. Wow is all I can say. The roof was fixed Wednesday which was just in time for last night's show. I'm currently working in Columbia, and I was in and out of those storms the whole way back to Florence on I-20. Luckily we have not seen the tornadoes.

Quoting 227. Astrometeor:

Report finally made it to SPC:



Edit: With that, I'm out. Huracan, you can just link it. Embedding here has gotten strange. Copy the URL and paste it into the link box that appears when you click on the link image from the options. Right next to the symbol for italics on the comment box.
Get ceramic window tinting for your automobile, including the windshield, and rear window, it will eliminate the UV, and keep temperatures cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter by 20%. I have it in my Ford f350.
In the Summer it takes time to cool down the interior, not now, I just can't rave enough this product, I'm not vested in the industry, I just think this stuff is the best thing since sliced bread!!!!!!
Quoting 249. cRRKampen:


And kind of a repetition of yesterday is up for tomorrow. Another huge zone of T850 >= 20 C moving over Holland and Germany, with Holland probably getting the same kind of split between a sea wind moderated west and extreme heat on the German border. This time temps in the centre of Germany should also go way up, they didn't do that too badly yesterday as highest temps in Germany were near the Dutch border.

You're right, unfortunately. 40 degrees Celsius (104F) for tomorrow in my town Mainz had been constant in the forecasts of the last days, and so it is this morning (source wetteronline.de). Sunday isn't much better. And especially Sunday evening very severe weather in the offing for whole Germany. And this weekend we'll have a lot of open air concerts with tens of thousand visitors f.e. in Mainz ...


Forecast for Mainz. Source.


Meteogram (GFS 06z) for nearby Frankfurt (notice the cold spell at the end of next week with quite strong winds, huh. Bring it!)
Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:



The guy is off as he is quoting Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Eric Blake, & Michael Ventrice about this WWB being the strongest Summer event ever. All is he doing is making himself look terrible. Kinda funny though I must say watching this guy.


Making himself look terrible? Kinda like forecasting something all day, everyday for two years then it finally happens:)
Quoting 254. cRRKampen:


"And thank God, I have never known any one's family members that have died of heat stroke!!!!"
Imaging substituting 'heat stroke' for 'Holocaust' or something..


Me neither. The majority of deaths are idiots going to/from bars and strip clubs. Sometimes it is just a pure tragic accident.
Quoting Barbamz:

And this weekend we'll have a lot of open air concerts with tens of thousand visitors f.e. in Mainz ...


Tour de France prologue in Utrecht tomorrow. I expect faintings and perhaps a heatstroke fatality among the public tomorrow. Though authorities seem to take the situation seriously and are doing a lot of warnings and precautions. The water company is now increasing pressure to be able to supply Utrecht and her visitors tomorrow.
Quoting 257. Bucsboltsfan:



Me neither. The majority of deaths are idiots going to/from bars and strip clubs. Sometimes it is just a pure tragic accident.

I got a bit close twice myself (one time of all places in Norway, last year, when the summer there detonated off all records).

In reality there are likely to be far more heat stroke deaths than depicted in Masters' OP. But most are not diagnosed as such. There is research bringing this fact forward convincingly, too.
261. MahFL
Quoting 202. Astrometeor:



I don't know how people are getting so much water, rain gauges under trees?...


How would you get more rain fall in a rain gauge under a tree ?
Quoting 260. Webberweather53:



Wait, I'm the one who constantly quotes these individuals with bold text? Could you really be this daft? Have you looked in the mirror lately or did you bother to look at this post below?

Right... You haven't presented one piece of evidence to your claim that this will be a Super NINO, much less a record event, beyond quoting the same individuals repeatedly and staring blankly at the CFS model. If you truly knew what you were doing, you could come up with some actual evidence on your own. But sadly, you have yet to do this, so I think we can assume you don't have the slightest clue about what's going on.

But you are exempt from providing evidence (YOUR evidence, of course) against remarks made by renowned scientists on the subject?
love is the answer
Chan-hom surely did get sheared apart yesterday when I was off, didn t expect it to be so severe. By the way - Scott and Webber should have a boxing match - based on Scott s pic and the fact that Webber s 53 might be his birth date or his actual age I would definitely favor Scott though:).
Roasting here in my Dachgeschoss. But not complaining! Seems we will only reach maybe 38 on Sunday. The Eis certainly tastes good!

Quoting 252. barbamz:


You're right, unfortunately. 40 degrees Celsius (104F) for tomorrow in my town Mainz had been constant in the forecasts of the last days, and so it is this morning (source wetteronline.de). Sunday isn't much better. And especially Sunday evening very severe weather in the offing for whole Germany. And this weekend we'll have a lot of open air concerts with tens of thousand visitors f.e. in Mainz ...


Forecast for Mainz. Source.


Meteogram (GFS 06z) for nearby Frankfurt (notice the cold spell at the end of next week with quite strong winds, huh. Bring it!)
Starting to look like a galaxy of stars out in the Pacific. All we need now is something of the coast of California to complete the constellation picture.

Good Morning..probably nothing..



00z UKMET



860

WTNT80 EGRR 030418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.07.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 36.0N 73.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 04.07.2015 36.9N 71.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.07.2015 39.8N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.07.2015 42.2N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.07.2015 43.5N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.07.2015 45.3N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Quoting 258. cRRKampen:


Tour de France prologue in Utrecht tomorrow. I expect faintings and perhaps a heatstroke fatality among the public tomorrow. Though authorities seem to take the situation seriously and are doing a lot of warnings and precautions. The water company is now increasing pressure to be able to supply Utrecht and her visitors tomorrow.

Just a simple cost free trick we use in zones where 35/C+ is common.
Get one of those spray plant mister things and just spray yourself with it, fill it with normal tap water or from a bottle.
The cooling effect along with the evaporation keeps you feeling fresh and we use it inside the car while driving along as well.
Quoting 261. MahFL:



How would you get more rain fall in a rain gauge under a tree ?
Sweat dripping from tree leaves - due to global warming.
Quoting 179. aquak9:

Could this El Nino be-
dare I say it-

UNPRECEDENTED?


oh dear.

(Am I doing this right?)
Quoting 268. PlazaRed:


Just a simple cost free trick we use in zones where 35/C+ is common.
Get one of those spray plant mister things and just spray yourself with it, fill it with normal tap water or from a bottle.
The cooling effect along with the evaporation keeps you feeling fresh and we use it inside the car while driving along as well.

Ha, thanks :) But I use the 'airco shower', which actually adds an action to your suggestion. Have mobile airco that blows a 15 kts wind, be wet and stand in front of it :)
(It was a joke, people.)
(#269)
Quoting 237. sar2401:

Any actual rain or just the clouds and dust passing by? There's still some moisture rotating around this huge upper level low that looks like it's close to you over Highway 50 now. It's 76 with rain in Reno right now so some of that moisture is hitting the ground. There's another big slug of moisture over Old Mexico now that's being pulled up through Arizona by the low and should get to you late Sunday or Monday. El Nino's normally get the monsoonal flow going, and it looks like this one will last a while yet. If nothing else, at least you get somewhat cooler temperatures.


A few drops, and the frustrating smell of rain. The big fat cold drops tricked me into thinking we might get a bit of hail, but it never showed up. Lots of dust, and only enough rain to leave their ghosts outlined in dust on the windows all over.

The brownouts are getting stupid. Since we went to all electric in the house we're using induction stovetops, the only propane being for the grill and burner outside. The brownouts, mostly morning and evening, drop power so low the stovetops just beep forlornly at us when we try to use them. (Long term plans are to complete an outdoor kitchen - it's only miserable outside 3 months of the year, after all.) NVEnergy sent a guy out who fixed a corroded connection - we were getting 160v spikes along with the drops, which killed a couple of our cheaper window fans.

This morning I had to heat water for coffee on the outside burner - the La Pavoni wouldn't work! Stupid #firstworldproblems harrumph.
I'm sharing this on my facebook page-I live in Corpus Christi TX where it's very hot in our long summers. There have been many of these types of deaths here. And people here are notorious for leaving their pets in their cars while they go do whatever it is they feel they need to do while their loved ones bake. Great information provided here.
Quoting 271. cRRKampen:


Ha, thanks :) But I use the 'airco shower', which actually adds an action to your suggestion. Have mobile airco that blows a 15 kts wind, be wet and stand in front of it :)

I have a very small fan that works from the lighter socket of the van, with the fan running and the plant mister as well its almost like air con which of course is not present in my 27 year old Spanish van.

When I lived in the bush or countryside a few years ago there were about 15 wild ferrel/domestic type cats in the forest nearby and the hose pipe was a way to keep them out of the house but in the summer they used to line up to be sprayed on the lawn.
When it was very hot, over 40/C+ they would go into the river and stand on the river bed with only their heads out of the water, sometimes even diving to catch fish which occasionally they brought up and left on my doorstep for me!
Strange but imagine wearing A FUR COAT IN +40/C?
Quoting 272. Barefootontherocks:

(It was a joke, people.)

It had me laugh so it worked :)
Slightly worse for me. Visited the Amber Museum in Palanga, Lithuania two weeks ago. This is fossilized resin from the Eocene some 44 M years ago. In a heating climate, a large species of pine trees would pathologically sweat truly huge amounts of this (the species now extinct).

(inb4: 'so there were climate changes in the past' et cetera, et cetera, ...)
Quoting 275. PlazaRed:


I have a very small fan that works from the lighter socket of the van, with the fan running and the plant mister as well its almost like air con which of course is not present in my 27 year old Spanish van.

When I lived in the bush or countryside a few years ago there were about 15 wild ferrel/domestic type cats in the forest nearby and the hose pipe was a way to keep them out of the house but in the summer they used to line up to be sprayed on the lawn.
When it was very hot, over 40/C+ they would go into the river and stand on the river bed with only their heads out of the water, sometimes even diving to catch fish which occasionally they brought up and left on my doorstep for me!
Strange but imagine wearing A FUR COAT IN +40/C?

Awww, sweet.. :)
Quoting 268. PlazaRed:


Just a simple cost free trick we use in zones where 35/C+ is common.
Get one of those spray plant mister things and just spray yourself with it, fill it with normal tap water or from a bottle.
The cooling effect along with the evaporation keeps you feeling fresh and we use it inside the car while driving along as well.


Add a couple drops of mint extract to the water, or use mint tea in your mister. Feels even better that way. But best in low humidity weather.
Quoting 254. cRRKampen:


"And thank God, I have never known any one's family members that have died of heat stroke!!!!"
Imaging substituting 'heat stroke' for 'Holocaust' or something..
You should go back and look at the source of that quote. It wasn't from Webberweather but from another poster quoting him.
Quoting 279. sar2401:

You should go back and look at the source of that quote. It wasn't from Webberweather but from another poster quoting him.

I perhaps should delete my remark. Was a bit too triggerhappy.
[edit: well, it was done for me already. Well sorry]
Quoting 273. nonblanche:



A few drops, and the frustrating smell of rain. The big fat cold drops tricked me into thinking we might get a bit of hail, but it never showed up. Lots of dust, and only enough rain to leave their ghosts outlined in dust on the windows all over.

The brownouts are getting stupid. Since we went to all electric in the house we're using induction stovetops, the only propane being for the grill and burner outside. The brownouts, mostly morning and evening, drop power so low the stovetops just beep forlornly at us when we try to use them. (Long term plans are to complete an outdoor kitchen - it's only miserable outside 3 months of the year, after all.) NVEnergy sent a guy out who fixed a corroded connection - we were getting 160v spikes along with the drops, which killed a couple of our cheaper window fans.

This morning I had to heat water for coffee on the outside burner - the La Pavoni wouldn't work! Stupid #firstworldproblems harrumph.
Are any of your near neighbors having this problem or only you? It it's only you, call NVEnergy back and have them send out an area engineer this time. There's either a wiring problem on your side of the transformer or theirs. I'm betting there's a floating ground of their side of the transformer. I went through the same thing when I first moved to this house. Tell the person who answers the phone you want a line analysis. Only the area engineer is qualified to do this. If they give you any grief about sending the engineer, tell them the kids keep getting little shocks when they use (insert name of electrically powered game here) and you're getting kind of "worried" about it. That should bring an engineer out pronto. :-)
Quoting 280. cRRKampen:


I perhaps should delete my remark. Was a bit too triggerhappy.
Probably so. With this nutty quote system here it's easy to think someone else replying to an original post is actually part of that post. It's confusing even to write about it. :-)
Quoting 280. cRRKampen:


I perhaps should delete my remark. Was a bit too triggerhappy.
[edit: well, it was done for me already. Well sorry]
That's weird. Why would your post have been deleted? I thought it was an honest mistake, but your comparison was apt in terms of a person saying they never knew anyone or their family with heat stroke. Must have been that "H" word. We are getting way too nervous about such things.
Quoting 281. sar2401:

Are any of your near neighbors having this problem or only you? It it's only you, call NVEnergy back and have them send out an area engineer this time. There's either a wiring problem on your side of the transformer or theirs. I'm betting there's a floating ground of their side of the transformer. I went through the same thing when I first moved to this house. Tell the person who answers the phone you want a line analysis. Only the area engineer is qualified to do this. If they give you any grief about sending the engineer, tell them the kids keep getting little shocks when they use (insert name of electrically powered game here) and you're getting kind of "worried" about it. That should bring an engineer out pronto. :-)


Oh, it's all Fallon. The girl who helps us on the farm, her grandma lives way down the other end of town off Soda Lake Road, and she's been insisting one of the local electrical repair firms did something to her wiring because she wouldn't pay three grand to have upgrades done. "Gramma, no, it's all over town like this."
Quoting 251. trunkmonkey:

Get ceramic window tinting for your automobile, including the windshield, and rear window, it will eliminate the UV, and keep temperatures cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter by 20%. I have it in my Ford f350.
In the Summer it takes time to cool down the interior, not now, I just can't rave enough this product, I'm not vested in the industry, I just think this stuff is the best thing since sliced bread!!!!!!
It is nice. However, in VA its hard to get. Don't forget the legal aspects of it.
Quoting 208. HurricaneAndre:

Well the 2015 hurricane season is done for the Atlantic. What's your prediction for next year. Mine is 17 5 3.


Looks nice!!

And yes, the 2015 hurricane season is over already, with 2 named storms.
Quoting 283. sar2401:

That's weird. Why would your post have been deleted? I thought it was an honest mistake, but your comparison was apt in terms of a person saying they never knew anyone or their family with heat stroke. Must have been that "H" word. We are getting way too nervous about such things.

The 'H'-word it was. Nutty blog system or no (I make many mistakes with it), I need such a missile to target true, else it's merely disgusting.
You might as well write off the MDR this year. Pathetic!

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 9h9 hours ago

July 1st in Main Development Region (MDR) of tropical Atlantic ... well below normal SST .. not even 26°C yet.
Quoting 268. PlazaRed:


Just a simple cost free trick we use in zones where 35/C+ is common.
Get one of those spray plant mister things and just spray yourself with it, fill it with normal tap water or from a bottle.
The cooling effect along with the evaporation keeps you feeling fresh and we use it inside the car while driving along as well.
As long as the humidity is low, any of those evaporative tricks will work. The A/C unit on my motorhome has an evaporative cooler (better known as a "swamp cooler" here) built in. It is commonly the case in the desert to get 95 degree heat with a dewpoint of less than 20. The temperature in Vegas yesterday afternoon was 101 but with a dewpoint of 47. That's still dry enough that a swamp cooler would provide some useful cooling, but the monsoon really brings up the humidity, so now a swamp cooler wouldn't work so good. Unfortunately, it doesn't work at all in Alabama. The temperature now is 86 with a dewpoint of 75. The last thing I'd want is anything that would add yet more humidity to the air. Does your part of Spain get a monsoon type thing in the summer?
There really is no reason why we shouldn't equal or surpass the 1997/1998 ENSO. Just remarkable how strong this WWB is and the GFS keeps trending stronger further east with each update. Amazing!

Heavy rains in OH flooded out an underground oil tank in a residential area. The nearby wells are to be tested for contamination.

Quoting 283. sar2401:

That's weird. Why would your post have been deleted? I thought it was an honest mistake, but your comparison was apt in terms of a person saying they never knew anyone or their family with heat stroke. Must have been that "H" word. We are getting way too nervous about such things.

It was removed because of what was quoted. Had nothing to do with holocaust.
Just to give you an idea of how strong this WWB is we have on today's update on the TAO RAW westerlies moving into Nino 3.4 not just anomalies but true westerly winds. Also notice the 2C anomalies spreading more and more into Nino 3.4. There is also another Downwelling Kelvin Wave rapidly organizing as near 7C anomalies are popping back up.



Yikes! Also notice the westward expansion beginning to occur.

Large earthquake in China Friday morning. 6.4 with atlest four stong aftershocks. Atleast 6 died. It's early though & over 3000 buildings were damaged or collapsed.
Quoting 284. nonblanche:



Oh, it's all Fallon. The girl who helps us on the farm, her grandma lives way down the other end of town off Soda Lake Road, and she's been insisting one of the local electrical repair firms did something to her wiring because she wouldn't pay three grand to have upgrades done. "Gramma, no, it's all over town like this."
Ah, if that's the case, time for you and the neighbors to start flooding the NV Public Utilities Commission with complaints. NVEnergy is mandated to provide reliable and safe power in its service area. Fluctuating line voltages provide neither. The last thing any regulated utility wants to see is the PUC on their back due to consumer complaints. This is especially true if any of the commissioners are trying to make a name for him or herself. Time for the community organizers to get to work. :-)
Quoting 291. Skyepony:

It was removed because of what was quoted. Had nothing to do with holocaust.
Because what was quoted violated what community standard? I won't get into an arguement with you here but that still doesn't make sense.
298. JRRP
You can clearly see in the Atlantic the signature of an Negative AMO with a ridiculously colder than average Main development region in the tropical Atlantic. All tropical systems that do develop this year has to be North of 23 degrees North Latitude due to the strong trade winds and high wind shear. Also the SAL is anomalously strong AGAIN this year. Anyway I think in New England this winter it will be VERY interesting because of a potentially Super NINO and a Strong NEgative AMO.
WOW JRRP!! That MJO looks scary STRONG
an excerpt from How Predictable is El Nino.......a peer reviewed paper out of princeton

A recent analysis of 12 statistical and dynamical models used for El Niño predictions
finds that at the long (1-2 years) and even medium (6-11 months) ranges there were
"no models that provided useful and skillful forecasts for the entirety of the 1997-
1998 El Niño" (Landsea and Knaff, 2000). Most of the models were wrong in predicting
the timing of the onset and/or demise of El Niño, and unable to predict the full
duration and even one half of the actual amplitude of the event. An earlier study by
Barnston et al (1999) reached similarly discouraging conclusions. As regards El Niño
of 2002, the forecasts again cover a very broad spectrum of possibilities (Kirtman
2002). Why is it so difficult to predict El Niño? How predictable is this phenomenon?
Quoting 299. WeatherConvoy:

You can clearly see in the Atlantic the signature of an Negative AMO with a ridiculously colder than average Main development region in the tropical Atlantic. All tropical systems that do develop this year has to be North of 23 degrees North Latitude due to the strong trade winds and high wind shear. Also the SAL is anomalously strong AGAIN this year. Anyway I think in New England this winter it will be VERY interesting because of a potentially Super NINO and a Strong NEgative AMO.



Happy 4th Brandon!
Quoting 297. LargoFl:




Dr. Phil Klotzbach states SST's aren't even 26C which is a threshold to get a tropical system going. We maybe hard pressed to get anything this year out of the MDR maybe the Caribbean too.
Scott~ ESPI has been moving fast this past week. It always moves in steps but to see it fall to 0.24 had me wundering about the volatility and certainty of this taking to the atmosphere. With the MJO & those storms in the WPAC I'd expected a quick move but wow.. The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is now 1.07. Should be an interesting week to see how high it goes. It does seem to be lagging a super el nino but at this rate of rise by the end of the week it could be indicating for it.
Quoting 297. LargoFl:


Tropical Waves are lined up, but with no convection as the SAL prevails. Looking down the line the 51-member Euro ensembles is showing some kind of inverted trough or TUTT crossing FL. in about a week. Considering if we have 2 Highs in place, one over the Great Basin and the Bermuda High this setup is quite possible, all this will mean is enhanced moisture and higher rain chances. Also, from a tropical note this is the time of the year we need to watch out for trough splits off the East Coast as well.

Quoting 197. LemieT:

As I have been affectionately calling it, Scott's El Nino is looking like it will shut down the MDR before it has a chance to awaken.


If anybody expected differently, they obviously don't know what a cold AMO means. We never needed El Nino for that.
Quoting 285. Storms306:

It is nice. However, in VA its hard to get. Don't forget the legal aspects of it.
Aftermarket window tint laws are a crazy quilt from state to state. California, along with about 15 other states, are the most restrictive, only allowing films that allow 70% of the light to pass through. Right across the border in Nevada, you can have much darker film, allowing only 35% of the light to pass. What's legal in Nevada isn't in California, and you can get a ticket in California even if the car is registered in Nevada. Window tint installers will happily install illegal tints because you're the one who gets the ticket, not them. Know what your state law says and make the tint installer hang a VLT meter on a window and prove his tint is legal. If you get stopped, the police are going to use the same type of meter to see if you are legal.
Bonnie, I dunno if you're still around at the moment, but I only logged on today because I wanted to ask you if you ever got your car fixed? I'm going to New Orleans in two weeks and I was hoping maybe we could meet up before then. :D
Quoting 301. ricderr:

an excerpt from How Predictable is El Nino.......a peer reviewed paper out of princeton

A recent analysis of 12 statistical and dynamical models used for El Niño predictions
finds that at the long (1-2 years) and even medium (6-11 months) ranges there were
"no models that provided useful and skillful forecasts for the entirety of the 1997-
1998 El Niño" (Landsea and Knaff, 2000). Most of the models were wrong in predicting
the timing of the onset and/or demise of El Niño, and unable to predict the full
duration and even one half of the actual amplitude of the event. An earlier study by
Barnston et al (1999) reached similarly discouraging conclusions. As regards El Niño
of 2002, the forecasts again cover a very broad spectrum of possibilities (Kirtman
2002). Why is it so difficult to predict El Niño? How predictable is this phenomenon?



Obviously supers are rare, and the odds low, forecasts unpredictable.

That said, things are really robust, and increasing.
A strong even is likely, and the only question if this one is going to be a super.
Netherlands temperatures were ever hotter than in August 1944, the fact is the hottest area of Netherlands has no stations right now, the title's holder doesn't exist anymore and Maastricht official station was moved to the airport which has a cooler microclimate.
For Paris, also in 1947 nobody cared to water the terrain, while now the terrain in the Observatory area is constantly watered, this is the only reason why the record was not beaten, although it was warmer in 2003 and in 2015 than in 1947.
For Belgium, it is even worse, the shelter used at Uccle before 1983 was in no standard condition and the temperature was proven to be overestimated by 2.0 to 2.2C, in this case also it is safe to calculate how in 2003, 2006 and 2015 higher temperatures than in 1947 were recorded
Nearly 100% of old heat records are overestimated , in the best cases by just a couple of degrees Celsius, in the worst cases by more than 10C (including some official US State records).
Quoting 261. MahFL:



How would you get more rain fall in a rain gauge under a tree ?
I think the idea is that water would drip from the tree for long after the rain stopped, thus increasing the total precipitation. Of course, that only works if the leaf cover allows some of the precipitation through to begin with.
Wow you know what is interesting, is despite the placement of that High in the Western Pacific which would certainly cause subsidence in that area, there are still tropical systems firing off at will. Now mind you they do have some of the warmest waters in the world, a larger ocean basin than the Atlantic, and they don't have the SAL to deal with. And of course the factors of El Nino is an added bonus for them when it comes to TC development like if they really need it. :P Just an observation that's all...

Quoting 312. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow you know what is interesting, is despite the placement of that High in the Western Pacific which would certainly cause subsidence in that area, there are still tropical systems firing off at will. Now mind you they do have some of the warmest waters in the world, a larger ocean basin than the Atlantic, and they don't have the SAL to deal with. And of course the factors of El Nino is an added bonus for them when it comes to TC development like if they really need it. :P Just an observation that's all...
Subsidence is often strongest on the eastern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The movement/future tracks of these cyclones suggest that are moving under the more diffluent southern portion of the ridge, meaning less dry air and greater upper-level ventilation.
Longest flight ever is about to land in HI.

The 4,000-mile leg from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii is not only the world's longest solar-powered flight both by time and distance, it also sets the record for longest solo flight by time.

Solar beats out jet fueled for longest solo flight..

The live feed and all is here. Should land in ~17mins..
Quoting 311. sar2401:

I think the idea is that water would drip from the tree for long after the rain stopped, thus increasing the total precipitation. Of course, that only works if the leaf cover allows some of the precipitation through to begin with.


I've done experiments with this and found that the total precipitation under heavy oak canopy can be between 1/5-1/3 less than in areas with no canopy. I have, on numerous occasions, placed a rain gauge in an open area and under canopy 10-20 feet away. I wanted to duplicate the results of the experiment a number of times of course. The effect is greatest when we have a brief burst of moderate to somewhat heavy rain. The water takes time to trickle through the canopy and make its way to the ground to accumulate. The tree must deflect a bit of the water, somewhat like a (very leaky) umbrella while some is held in the canopy to subsequently evaporate. Any drip through after the rain stops does not make up for the full difference.

When we have brief passing showers or heavy rain for, say, 2 minutes, it is usually still dry under the thick canopies of the trees around here, even though the ground surface and streets will be wet/damp. It will remain dry in the absence of further rain with no significant drip through, save for a few drops here and there.

During prolonged moderate/heavy rain, and torrential rain from thunderstorms that lasts a while, the effect is minimized, but still very much measurable in terms of significantly less rain in the gauge. This effect will depend on how thick the tree canopy is and will be lessened (obviously) under trees with fewer leaves/sparser canopies.

This has been of particular concern to me lately, since I keep my collection of delicate orchids in aluminum cages under an oak canopy, otherwise they would fry to a crisp under the hot sun anywhere else in the yard. A passing shower does nothing as far as watering, so I have had to water a lot lately.
Quoting 304. Skyepony:

Scott~ ESPI has been moving fast this past week. It always moves in steps but to see it fall to 0.24 had me wundering about the volatility and certainty of this taking to the atmosphere. With the MJO & those storms in the WPAC I'd expected a quick move but wow.. The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is now 1.07. Should be an interesting week to see how high it goes. It does seem to be lagging a super el nino but at this rate of rise by the end of the week it could be indicating for it.


Anytime you see a WWB stronger than 1997 and I mean crushing the June 1997 WWB that should really raise a lot of questions for some on here doubting this El-Nino's potential. Like I said last night we are witnessing the same forcing that occurred in June 1997 but instead we are seeing it in July 2015 with stronger forcing combine that with near Strong Base foundation already laid means the models are likely correct and we may very well surpass 1997's ENSO.

Notice the spread is becoming less and less. I suspect we max out @ 2.5C to 2.6C. CFSv2 has 3C but I think that value is a little high.


Quoting 316. StormTrackerScott:



Anytime you see a WWB stronger than 1997 and I mean crushing the June 1997 WWB that should really raise a lot of questions for some on here doubting this El-Nino's potential. Like I said last night we are witnessing the same forcing that occurred in June 1997 but instead we are seeing it in July 2015 with stronger forcing combine that with near Strong Base foundation already laid means the models are likely correct and we may very well surpass 1997's ENSO.

Notice the spread is becoming less and less. I suspect we max out @ 2.5C to 2.6C. CFSv2 has 3C but I think that value is a little high.




Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.
Quoting 317. KoritheMan:



Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.


One should remember the CFS & Euro do have a warm bias but still should give a really good indication where we are going. I was saying 1.8C for a max but I am changing that to 2.5C to 2.6C due to the fact we have the strongest WWB on record for July which will in turn cause a lot warming across the ENSO regions.
Quoting 314. Skyepony:

Longest flight ever is about to land in HI.

The 4,000-mile leg from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii is not only the world's longest solar-powered flight both by time and distance, it also sets the record for longest solo flight by time.

Solar beats out jet fueled for longest solo flight..

The live feed and all is here. Should land in ~17mins..


Safely o the ground !!
I had a narrow "jungle garden" on the side of my parents former house that had a huge weedy paper mulberry tree sprout in 2004 and reach 50 feet tall and at least as wide by 2013 right in the middle of the garden. I also had a really dense loquat tree on one end under which all sorts of tropical shrubs, bushes and other vegetation was planted. One time I did the rain gauge experiment during a heavy storm with almost an inch of rain falling in the open area of the yard. The gauge on the ground under all that tree cover in the garden measured less than half an inch during the same storm!
Quoting 308. KoritheMan:

Bonnie, I dunno if you're still around at the moment, but I only logged on today because I wanted to ask you if you ever got your car fixed? I'm going to New Orleans in two weeks and I was hoping maybe we could meet up before then. :D

Hey, Kori. Yup, sure did. And then it went back in the shop...came out...and went back in again yesterday. Just shot you an email.
Quoting 300. WeatherConvoy:

WOW JRRP!! That MJO looks scary STRONG


The TC outbreak in the Pacific is projecting onto the MJO, the amplitude & timing of this event is very similar to 2002... Any warming we see in the eastern Pacific that's a direct result of this WWB is about 6-7 weeks away given the phase speed & periodicity of the oceanic KW...
Quoting 314. Skyepony:

Longest flight ever is about to land in HI.

The 4,000-mile leg from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii is not only the world's longest solar-powered flight both by time and distance, it also sets the record for longest solo flight by time.

Solar beats out jet fueled for longest solo flight..

The live feed and all is here. Should land in ~17mins..


Solarimpulse has landed - safely.
Quoting 317. KoritheMan:



Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.


It bothers me that NOAA chooses to infuse monthly SST anomalies into their tri-monthly ENSO forecasts, aside from the fact that the CFSv2 has piss-poor physics, it doesn't make any sense why they don't use ERSST here, it's about .3C lower than the CFSv2's initialization. The erroneously high initialization is only going to hurt this model's verification scores...
Overcast skies out here in NW FL.. June gloom in July
Hope everyone has a safe and happy 4th!

Quoting 324. Webberweather53:



It bothers me that NOAA chooses to infuse monthly SST anomalies into their tri-monthly ENSO forecasts, aside from the fact that the CFSv2 has piss-poor physics, it doesn't make any sense why they don't use ERSST here, it's about .3C lower than the CFSv2's initialization. The erroneously high initialization is only going to hurt this model's verification scores...


Either way a 2.5C or 2.6C ENSO will surpass 1997's event by a pretty decent margin. Also with this WWB being the strongest ever for July expect a pretty significant uptick to SST's come 3 to 4 weeks not 6 to 7 weeks as there is a 3rd downwelling kelvin wave rapidly organizing near the Dateline which should be stronger than the one we just witnessed a few weeks ago.

To see these number crushing 1997's number is just ridiculous especially since there is already a near Strong El-Nino base already laid out!

This WWB crushed 1997's June event by more than a full point. Amazing.

June 30th 9.32 vrs 8.14 on June 11th, 1997


Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach Jul 1

June 28-30, 2015 have all had stronger westerlies in the central Pac than any other day in June since 1979. #ElNino
Quoting 303. StormTrackerScott:



Dr. Phil Klotzbach states SST's aren't even 26C which is a threshold to get a tropical system going. We maybe hard pressed to get anything this year out of the MDR maybe the Caribbean too.


That's not really true. There's plenty of 26C+ water in large portions of the MDR in the caribbean and some east/north. From about 20-50W and 10-20N there's a lot of water less than 26C though. It's only July 3rd though. The MDR won't reach its peak until September-October and there have been El Nino years with -AMO that have had activty in the MDR. Most of 1987's activity that year was in the MDR, including Major Hurricane Emily which hit haiti/dominican republic as a category 3. Not to say there might not be much if any activity in the MDR, but just because we have a strengthening El Nino and unfavourable SSTs doesn't mean we can't see any activity there, as the MDR is still capable of producing a major.

Of course most of the activity will generally be in the sub-tropics, so the US particularly should be on the look out. Storms like Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), Hurricane Bob (1991) & Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) have caused a lot of damage and destruction to the US during El Nino/-AMO years. Will be an interesting year.
Quoting 327. Envoirment:



That's not really true. There's plenty of 26C+ water in large portions of the MDR in the caribbean and some east/north. From about 20-50W and 10-20N there's a lot of water less than 26C though. It's only July 3rd though. The MDR won't reach its peak until September-October and there have been El Nino years with -AMO that have had activty in the MDR. Most of 1987's activity that year was in the MDR, including Major Hurricane Emily which hit haiti/dominican republic as a category 3. Not to say there might not be much if any activity in the MDR, but just because we have a strengthening El Nino and unfavourable SSTs doesn't mean we can't see any activity there, as the MDR is still capable of producing a major.

Of course most of the activity will generally be in the sub-tropics, so the US particularly should be on the look out. Storms like Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), Hurricane Bob (1991) & Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) have caused a lot of damage and destruction to the US during El Nino/-AMO years. Will be an interesting year.


Tweet was from actually Ryan Maue
Quoting 317. KoritheMan:



Even considering my skepticism, 2.5C is a LOT more believable than some of the 4-5C numbers the ECMWF members were spitting out before.


The corrected version of the CFSv2 currently shows around 2C with some members going up to around 2.3C



That's the highest of the 3 versions and is more believable than the non-corrected version.
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:



Tweet was from actually Ryan Maue


The tweet highlights the cold water of less than 26C in the eastern tropical atlantic/eastern part of the MDR, but looking at the SST charts, half of the MDR is 26C or above, with 28-30C water in the Caribbean. If the entire MDR was below 26C then Levi's SST anomaly chart for it would likely be in the -1C or lower range:





Link
Quoting 310. maxcrc:

Netherlands temperatures were ever hotter than in August 1944, the fact is the hottest area of Netherlands has no stations right now, the title's holder doesn't exist anymore and Maastricht official station was moved to the airport which has a cooler microclimate.
For Paris, also in 1947 nobody cared to water the terrain, while now the terrain in the Observatory area is constantly watered, this is the only reason why the record was not beaten, although it was warmer in 2003 and in 2015 than in 1947.
For Belgium, it is even worse, the shelter used at Uccle before 1983 was in no standard condition and the temperature was proven to be overestimated by 2.0 to 2.2C, in this case also it is safe to calculate how in 2003, 2006 and 2015 higher temperatures than in 1947 were recorded
Nearly 100% of old heat records are overestimated , in the best cases by just a couple of degrees Celsius, in the worst cases by more than 10C (including some official US State records).

You may be quite right.
Unfortunately we can't (or: I won't) use this kind of musings to assess a temp record. Especially in the teeth of the ideological side to the CC debate.
But actually I don't really have to, because as climate change continues the old records will be smashed sometime soon anyway.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 333. LAbonbon:




Same pattern as yesterday, with all the energy staying in north Alabama. It would be nice if some of that would sag southward but that doesn't look like that's going to happen. Even BMX has given up on that idea, and now I only have a 20% chance of rain. The storms are going to cause flooding problems in north Alabama though as they train over the same areas.

EDIT: Geez, I did it again...
Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:



One should remember the CFS & Euro do have a warm bias but still should give a really good indication where we are going. I was saying 1.8C for a max but I am changing that to 2.5C to 2.6C due to the fact we have the strongest WWB on record for July which will in turn cause a lot warming across the ENSO regions.


I'm conservative. 1.5 to 2.0C, and certainly no greater than that. I've seen WWBs fade before, but you and Eric probably know more about this topic than me.
Quoting 327. Envoirment:



That's not really true. There's plenty of 26C+ water in large portions of the MDR in the caribbean and some east/north. From about 20-50W and 10-20N there's a lot of water less than 26C though. It's only July 3rd though. The MDR won't reach its peak until September-October and there have been El Nino years with -AMO that have had activty in the MDR. Most of 1987's activity that year was in the MDR, including Major Hurricane Emily which hit haiti/dominican republic as a category 3. Not to say there might not be much if any activity in the MDR, but just because we have a strengthening El Nino and unfavourable SSTs doesn't mean we can't see any activity there, as the MDR is still capable of producing a major.

Of course most of the activity will generally be in the sub-tropics, so the US particularly should be on the look out. Storms like Hurricane Betsy (1965), Hurricane Agnes (1972), Hurricane Bob (1991) & Tropical Storm Alberto (1994) have caused a lot of damage and destruction to the US during El Nino/-AMO years. Will be an interesting year.


I think people sometimes forget what anomalies mean. The MDR is still going to be warm enough to support tropical cyclogenesis by August and September.
This is the byproduct of a record-breaking MJO pulse:

339. MahFL
Quoting 311. sar2401:

I think the idea is that water would drip from the tree for long after the rain stopped, thus increasing the total precipitation. Of course, that only works if the leaf cover allows some of the precipitation through to begin with.


The precipitation over a tree is exactly the same as over grassland or concrete next to it.
Quoting 294. sar2401:

Ah, if that's the case, time for you and the neighbors to start flooding the NV Public Utilities Commission with complaints. NVEnergy is mandated to provide reliable and safe power in its service area. Fluctuating line voltages provide neither. The last thing any regulated utility wants to see is the PUC on their back due to consumer complaints. This is especially true if any of the commissioners are trying to make a name for him or herself. Time for the community organizers to get to work. :-)


Got it. Might not work, as (especially with the "interesting" people who live down Soda Lake) a good many of the people especially outside the county seat boundaries prefer to stay "under the radar." :)