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PECAN: Closest Look Yet at Nighttime Storms That Pummel Midwest

By: Bob Henson 8:17 PM GMT on June 26, 2015

In most parts of the country, summer thunderstorms are most common in the afternoon or evening. Things are a bit different from the eastern Great Plains into the western Great Lakes. Across this core swath of the Midwest, lightning is most likely to zigzag across the summer sky during the wee hours of the morning. Along with disrupting countless nights of sleep, these middle-of-the-night thunderstorms are renowned for torrential rain, large hail, and destructive wind. One of several vivid examples from the past week was the supercell that moved across western South Dakota on Friday night, June 19, killing livestock with softball-sized hail before morphing into an larger complex that sent wind gusts of 60 to 100 mph across the southern half of the state well past midnight, finally reaching southwest Minnesota around 3:00 a.m. See radar loop here (also embedded at the bottom of this post).


Figure 1. A powerful supercell, shown here near Belle Fourche, SD, raced across South Dakota on Friday night, June 19, while evolving into a mesoscale convective system (MCS). Image credit: Cody Lere, courtesy of NWS Rapid City.


This year a major field study--primiarly supported by the National Science Foundation, with additional support from NASA, NOAA, and DOE--is zeroing in on large, long-lived storm clusters known as mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) as they prowl the central Plains from late evening deep into the night. The experiment, dubbed Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN), started on June 1 and will continue through July 15 if the weather remains favorable. PECAN is a sprawling Kansas-based project, with an operations center at Fort Hays State University, three aircraft (a University of Wyoming King Air, NOAA P-3, and NASA DC-8), and a fleet of mobile teams, including nine portable Doppler radars and four vertical profiling units (PECAN Integrated Sounding Arrays, or PISAs). Six other PISAs are based at fixed sites. The project’s official domain extends from northern Oklahoma to southern Nebraska, although the P-3 flew into South Dakota to investigate the storm of June 19 and a successful mission took place in Iowa on Wednesday night, June 24.

PECAN’s overarching goal is to “advance the understanding and forecast skill of the processes that initiate and maintain nocturnal convection in the Great Plains.” It’s no mystery that nighttime MCSs are a huge influence on central U.S. climate. Roughly half of the summertime rainfall over the Great Plains is deposited by MCSs. Often, the systems develop night after night along a preferred west-to-east corridor whose location can shift north or south in a given year. Most nighttime MCSs over the plains are elevated, meaning they draw energy from just above the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere (the boundary layer). As the sun goes down, the boundary layer cools more quickly than the air above it, which can lead to an often-sharp inversion that keeps the two layers separated. Above the boundary layer, storm-fueling warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico can sweep unimpeded into MCSs, borne on a southerly low-level jet stream that routinely ramps up around nightfall. Winds in this low-level jet stream often top 60 mph, which can keep an MCS going for hours on end. Some MCSs can persist for more than 12 hours and travel more than 1,000 miles.


Figure 2. Radar data from WSI, covering the June-to-August periods from 1996 to 2002, was used to produce this climatology that shows the time of day when precipitation (inferred from radar reflectivities of more than 15 dBz) were most likely. Much or most of this rain would be in the form of thunderstorms. Areas in black and dark blue/purple denote peak activity between around midnight and 6:00 a.m. local solar time. Image credit: David Ahijevych, NCAR.


Some weather patterns are reliable MCS producers, making a given night’s forecast fairly straightforward. Other setups are more ambiguous, leading to the risk of unpleasant, dangerous surprises in the middle of the night. “In some cases it's clear that the MCS will move in a certain direction, but the forecasters may struggle with how long it will last,” said Mike Coniglio (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory), one of the PECAN co-investigators. “Other times the MCS motion can be quite a forecast challenge, since it depends on both the fine-scale details of the cold air produced by the cluster of thunderstorms as well as the details of the vertical wind profile surrounding the system, which itself often changes drastically in the few hours after sunset.” Still other times, an MCS will stay potent well through the night, producing severe weather and even tornadoes, despite background conditions that suggest a stable layer near the ground would inhibit the severe weather.



Figure 3. On June 4, NCAR’s S-Pol research radar monitored this rapidly developing thunderstorm in western Kansas, which merged with other cells as part of an MCS after sunset. S-Pol is stationed southwest of Hays for the PECAN project. Image credit: Carlye Calvin/UCAR.


To address the forecast question from several angles, PECAN is oriented around four distinct mission types. Each night of operations will include one or more sub-experiments organized around these four areas:

--The birth and early life of elevated storms: How do various types of disturbances kick off thunderstorms in the late evening, as the boundary layer is just beginning to detach from the atmosphere above it?

--The internal structure and microphysics of MCSs: How do the rain-cooled downdrafts from MCSs affect storm evolution? How well does the new dual-polarization software in NWS NEXRAD radars classify the size and types of raindrops, ice crystals, and cloud droplets found in MCSs?

--Bores and other wave-like features: MCSs can trigger atmospheric features that propagate well beyond the storm complex itself. One such feature that’s not well known to the public is the undular bore, which ripples outward against the prevailing wind much like a tidal bore does. These wavelike features can help nourish an MCS by forcing downstream air above the boundary layer to rise. What drives these features, and how can they be better folded into prediction efforts?

--Storm- and MCS-scale modeling: Data gathered from the field in PECAN will be teamed with computer models at various resolutions, to analyze what types of future observation platforms might be best suited for improving forecasts of MCS evolution. According to Coniglio, current storm-scale models tends to produce downdrafts that are too cold and spread out too extensively, which makes it harder to predict MCS behavior.


Figure 4. Undergraduates Leslie Cain (Fort Hays State University) and Shiou-Rong Chu (National Taiwan University) calibrated and launched radiosondes for PECAN from a fixed monitoring site near Brewster, Kansas. Image credit: Carlye Calvin/UCAR.

Life on the graveyard shift
This spring’s thunderstorm action shifted rather abruptly from torrential rain-producing storms in Oklahoma during May to MCSs swinging across the upper Midwest in June. Although Kansas hasn’t been the prime focal point of MCS development, enough storms have been moving through the northern part of the PECAN domain to keep the researchers busy, and the aircraft component extends the project range somewhat. PECAN is budgeted for up to 27 observing periods, and Thursday night was the 16th night of operations, with about three weeks left to go.

PECAN’s unusual hours are well suited for undergraduate and graduate students who know all about pulling all-nighters. Several dozen students have been launching radiosondes and deploying other equipment as part of PECAN’s mobile teams. Unlike chase-oriented projects such as VORTEX2, where mobile units move with storms throughout the afternoon and evening, PECAN’s mobile units generally stay put after their late-evening deployment. Once data gathering is done for the night, which can be as late as 3:00 or 4:00 am, it’s time to catch a few winks before gearing up in time for the next day’s 3:00 pm weather briefing. “Some of us have resorted to putting aluminum foil over the bedroom windows to block out the morning light and try to get on a roughly 3-am-to-11-am sleep schedule,” said Coniglio.


Figure 5. The PECAN PIE group, one of the teams of students and scientists documenting storms across the central Great Plains for weeks on end as part of PECAN. Left to right: Anthony Torres (University of Michigan), Erin Dougherty (2015 graduate, University of Virginia), and postdoctoral fellows David Bodine and Kristen Rasmussen (NCAR Advanced Study Program).


“I’ve just been pretending I'm in another time zone,” said Anthony Torres (University of Michigan), an undergraduate taking part in PECAN through UCAR’s SOARS program. “It's been a challenge remembering what day it is, what's considered breakfast, lunch, dinner, etc.” Torres and several other participants have dubbed themselves PECAN PIE, with the PIE standing for Precipitation Instrumentation Experiment. On Thursday night, they were in the midst of a multi-day deployment ranging across several states, using instruments called disdrometers that measure the sizes and fall speeds of individual raindrops. The PECAN PIE team has set up a Facebook page and their own WU blog, which they’ll soon be updating.

“We always see something interesting in the data,” says Tammy Weckwerth, one of six PECAN principal investigators. “It may be the structure and evolution of the MCSs, or the organization of the convection initiation events, or seemingly endless bores emanating out from storms, or interesting surface boundaries, or mid-level moisture tongues, or widespread waves propagating throughout the region. No matter when we collect data or what the conditions are, there is always something intriguing going on in the atmosphere.”

The PECAN Field Catalog, maintained by NCAR’s Earth Observing Laboratory, includes many links to outreach-oriented material. See also the NSF and NCAR news releases on PECAN and Jon Erdman’s comprehensive writeup on MCSs and PECAN at weather.com. Thanks to Jon for providing additional background for this blog post.

Bob Henson







Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 490. CybrTeddy:

I hope this is just a speed bump in the road to the stars.

There is no trip to the stars for this configuration of human society. IMO it is extremely doubtful that we'll even try to go to Mars. Once we turn manned spaceflight over to private industry we abandon any such trips. There's no profit in being the first on Mars...and there won't be any time in the next couple of centuries. I guess there's a small chance China might do it, but probably not.

All that aside, tough break for the SpaceX folks. Hope they get it figured out and corrected.
Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Quoting 501. Misanthroptimist:


There is no trip to the stars for this configuration of human society. IMO it is extremely doubtful that we'll even try to go to Mars. Once we turn manned spaceflight over to private industry we abandon any such trips. There's no profit in being the first on Mars...and there won't be any time in the next couple of centuries. I guess there's a small chance China might do it, but probably not.

All that aside, tough break for the SpaceX folks. Hope they get it figured out and corrected.


Maybe any other company (like that MarsOne nonsense), but not SpaceX. These guys are serious. Elon Musk even said before the launch that they have a major Mars announcement by the end of the year.

It'll be a probably a joint NASA-SpaceX effort. NASA providing the technical know-how and skills learned from the ISS, SpaceX providing the rockets. This is how it was for commercial resupply, this is how it is for commercial crew.
Yesterday the blog was nice, no arguments, complaining or nit picking at people's posts...a lot of exchange of information and just civility..spent more time here than I usually do and enjoyed it..

But today...

Enjoy your Sunday everyone..
Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Watch that spot just north of the Bahamas at the tail end of the trough. That's where we actually may have a chance of something interesting in the three or four days.
Quoting 503. CybrTeddy:



Maybe any other company, but not SpaceX. These guys are serious. Elon Musk even said before the launch that they have a major Mars announcement by the end of the year.


they will do well as long has nothing else blows up
but with space exploration programs
that risk is always present
no matter how careful they will try too be
I got 3.01 inches yesterday from the rain more expected Monday and Tuesday before the month closes.
Quoting 504. ncstorm:

Yesterday the blog was nice, no arguments, complaining or nit picking at people's posts...a lot of exchange of information and just civility..spent more time here than I usually do and enjoyed it..

But today...

Enjoy your Sunday everyone..
its not bad nc we are doing ok little feisty but nothing too out of hand

have a good day
Quoting 507. washingtonian115:

I got 3.01 inches yesterday from the rain more expected Monday and Tuesday before the month closes.
month total here wash is 214.2 mm currently start before event was 169.8mm
Quoting 484. sar2401:

The Gulf has had anomalously high water temperatures for at least the past three years. You really need to get past the idea that SST's are the most important factor for tropical storms. Once the water temperature is at about 28 C, how high it goes above that is just a minor factor in terms of tropical cyclone formation. Things like shear, dry air, trade winds, vertical instability, relative pressure, and SAL coverage are a lot more important. We have now established the water is warm in the Gulf. How do those other factors look?

Horrible. I just found this. The GFS is going crazy, but I will say that the GFS was showing disturbed weather in the Caribbean very consistently in it's model runs, but now it wants to spit out a tropical cyclone. This will probably be dropped since it's 384 hours out.
Quoting 507. washingtonian115:

I got 3.01 inches yesterday from the rain more expected Monday and Tuesday before the month closes.
With 3 more days until July, will clearly add up more to the record.
::performs imaginary happy dance::

The NWS lowered my high temps today to 84F. I've truly missed the clouds, and I don't think I've ever been so happy to wake up to an overcast sky.

In other PNW weather news:

Red Flag Warnings are flying
Excessive Heat Warning continues

Chance of thunderstorms for region (Credit: Cliff Mass)

Also of regional importance, the Portland Timbers host the Seattle Sounders for a Cascadia Cup MLS match this afternoon at 4pm PST. The forecast for Portland, OR makes the prospect of standing outside, in a stadium, in the sun look like a horrid place to spend a Sunday afternoon. Although, their forecast highs were thankfully lowered as well from possibly flirting with triple digits as was suggested earlier this week. As I have friends supporting both sides down the road in Portland, I'm hoping people balance their beer and water intake today. Somehow, I suspect most won't.
Quoting 508. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its not bad nc we are doing ok little feisty but nothing too out of hand

have a good day



I disagree.
Quoting 507. washingtonian115:

I got 3.01 inches yesterday from the rain more expected Monday and Tuesday before the month closes.



Thunder kept waking me up last night. Nothing too loud, just on and off rumbling. Picked up between 1.5-2 inches (no rain gauge here, info based on this).
I heard THUNDER!!!!!!!!!!!

LoL, I'm just a little excited. It's one of the few things I miss about living in other parts of the country. That and hurricane parties. Oh, and some of the food.

Back to weather, an excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

.SHORT TERM...

RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS SHOW A GROUP OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND AS OF 9 AM THE LEADING EDGE IS AROUND OLYMPIA. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE POPPING UP AROUND THE SOUTH SOUND...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN CLUSTER... AND THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL FROM THE STORMS... AS MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. KOLM HAS ACCUMULATED ONLY THREE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS OF 910 AM.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BY RAISING A PARCEL FROM THE 650 MB LEVEL ON THE 12Z KUIL SOUNDING...IT CAN BE SHOWN THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 500-800 J/KG THIS MORNING FOR THE COAST... WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE EXTRAPOLATED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE HIGH BASED WITH BASES AROUND 12000 FEET.

I know it's weak, but really just the fact that the words "unstable" and "CAPE" are side by side in my forecast discussion is novel.
Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

month total here wash is 214.2 mm currently start before event was 169.8mm
I'm wondering if July will be continue the rain surplus that we have now or will we be dry? July is one of the driest months here in the Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 511. Climate175:

With 3 more days until July, will clearly add up more to the record.
R.N.A has seen 11.93 inches of rain so it won't take much to tie or surpass it.
Quoting 514. LAbonbon:

Thunder kept waking me up last night. Nothing too loud, just on and off rumbling. Picked up between 1.5-2 inches (no rain gauge here, info based on this).
We had little in the way of lighting and thunder yesterday thanks to the wedge.It put a cap on any storms that may have erupted other wise if we had sunshine.
Quoting 513. Grothar:




I disagree.


that's your choice
now mine you
I have not been here for every comment
should I read back or leave it alone


some northern gulf convection around and maybe more rain for gro too
@Seattleite - well, I have to admire your enthusiasm :-)

Regarding sports, spectators and the heat - yesterday Gro replied to one of my posts regarding high temps in Boise. The link was to a weather.com article and video. Of course, weather.com's videos roll one right after the other. Before I finished reading the article, another video clip began to play...regarding an annual naked bike ride in Portland (which occurred yesterday, I think) and what the riders should do to contend with the heat. Talk about needing to take precautions against the heat :)
Quoting 513. Grothar:




I disagree.


grumpy old man....
:)
Quoting 520. LAbonbon:

@Seattleite - well, I have to admire your enthusiasm :-)

Regarding sports, spectators and the heat - yesterday Gro replied to one of my posts regarding high temps in Boise. The link was to a weather.com article and video. Of course, weather.com's videos roll one right after the other. Before I finished reading the article, another video clip began to play...regarding an annual naked bike ride in Portland (which occurred yesterday, I think) and what the riders should do to contend with the heat. Talk about needing to take precautions against the heat :)



Geez, you try and do something nice on here................................... :)
Rutro, just realized the day is half gone and I've gotten nada done. Wouldn't be so bad if I hadn't been such a slacker yesterday as well... must go and accomplish something...

Hope you all have a lovely day.
Big boomers around PBIA. Lots of lightning strikes.
Quoting 489. washingtonian115:

As horrible as the conditions were in the MDR during the 2009 atlantic hurricane season we still managed to get Bill and Fred.Both were respectable majors with Bill reaching Cat 4 and Fred a high end Cat 3.
Which is why we don't let our guard down. Even the strongest El Nino on record 1997 featured category 3 Hurricane Erika that began in the Central Atlantic. And 2006 was a big SAL year and we had 4 hurricanes out in the Central Atlantic. A window of opportunity should open up in August or September for Cape Verde development.
Quoting 520. LAbonbon:

@Seattleite - well, I have to admire your enthusiasm :-)

Regarding sports, spectators and the heat - yesterday Gro replied to one of my posts regarding high temps in Boise. The link was to a weather.com article and video. Of course, weather.com's videos roll one right after the other. Before I finished reading the article, another video clip began to play...regarding an annual naked bike ride in Portland (which occurred yesterday, I think) and what the riders should do to contend with the heat. Talk about needing to take precautions against the heat :)


Oh the PNW. So yes, the naked bike riding is a thing. In particular, done around the Summer solstice. Portland holds a large event, with Seattle and other PNW towns holding various parades as well. Whenever I try to ride a bike, gravity wins the eternal battle. However, I've had friends paint themselves up and go. Given that was a few years back, and it was in the often cloudy weather in the 70s. I wonder, at what temperature does body paint melt off?
Quoting 508. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its not bad nc we are doing ok little feisty but nothing too out of hand

have a good day
Blog seems like it's been fine to me. A few disagreements, but we're not here to be a mutual love and admiration society. There are sites I've seen with lots of cute kitten pictures where that seems to be the rule though.
Quoting 529. Seattleite:



Oh the PNW. So yes, the naked bike riding is a thing. In particular, done around the Summer solstice. Portland holds a large event, with Seattle and other PNW towns holding various parades as well. Whenever I try to ride a bike, gravity wins the eternal battle. However, I've had friends paint themselves up and go. Given that was a few years back, and it was in the often cloudy weather in the 70s. I wonder, at what temperature does body paint melt off?
I don't think that kind of thing would fly in Alabama. First problem is it's way too hot all the time from now until October. Second is we don't go much for naked anything down here. Some of our church ladies would fall out just at the thought. :-)
I don't think many have a clue as to what NASA's Manned SF future is.

It is SLS and Orion.

SLS will be the Heavy Launch Vehicle to Lunar Orbit and Mars as it has a heavier lift capacity in the "Heavy" config than the Saturn 5.

One can't willy nilly the future from a Lazy Boy.

SLS is now being built, as the engineering is all complete and metal is being cut.

The 5 segment SRB has been tested and the program is moving on to Build.

Just last week NASA here at Stennis in Miss, did a full duration Hot fire test of the upgraded SSME to the RS-25 engine, previously used to send space shuttles into orbit, with full duration success.

Also the Apollo Launch Pads will be retrofitted from Shuttle to SLS as well.

The future is bright in this regard.

Try a few NASA searches on the main site as it's all there.

It does take a lil effort.

Beats bloviating BS.

The biggest rocket on Earth takes shape: Watch Nasa build the engine that could take man to Mars.

Construction of the Space Launch System has already begun
Rocket will eventually be 384 feet tall and weigh 6.5 million pounds
Four RS-25 engines, previously used to send space shuttle into orbit, will be used in the new megarocket.



elons.tesla?..will.it.ever.make.money?
Quoting 498. sar2401:

No, you're not. No major model, or even minor model, shows any kind of tropical development in the next seven days let alone anything headed toward Florida. This is just another example of not being able to properly understand what he's looking at or just the desire to see a storm headed toward Florida.


tropical development in the next seven days


more like the next 2 weeks or longer
Quoting 533. tampabaymatt:





I think the GFS has a bit of a northward bias on the rainfall accumulation from the upper trough tomorrow. Rainfall in the gulf was further south than expected today, i.e. it was supposed to be mainly over the northern gulf, the trough is digging a bit ahead of model guidance, so I think that showers and thunderstorms will be numerous as well in the coastal waters of Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area tomorrow points east and northeast due to the trough being closer.
Quoting 531. sar2401:

I don't think that kind of thing would fly in Alabama. First problem is it's way too hot all the time from now until October. Second is we don't go much for naked anything down here. Some of our church ladies would fall out just at the thought. :-)


I think it depends on what part of part of Alabama, having been through the state a few times, I would think back country ponds and streams might be populated with some nudist events, I've definitely accidentally seen redneck nudity here in Florida visiting rivers and springs, yikes ;)
Quoting 500. Climate175:

This year, the chance of landfalls are very high, you see the last two storms did so.



that means nothing this be come 2 storms made land fall early dos not mean that pattern will stay the same for the rest of the season that is if we even see a season this year

this season will be vary slow and i think this will be one of the most slowest season we have had in a vary long time we will be lucky if we see at lest 5 name storms this season
Afternoon all. Just to add my bit to this, I wish we had more rain reporting stations. Old Bill was a mess.

Lake Charles Preliminary on Bill

The genesis of Tropical Storm Bill began as a tropical disturbance across the Western Caribbean Sea and the interaction with an upper-level trough on June 12th. For the next couple of days, the tropical disturbance moved northwest, eventually crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on June 13-14th. The disturbance emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico late on June 14th and moved across the central Gulf of Mexico on June 15th. While the disturbance was producing tropical storm force winds, the surface low was very broad and elongated as determined by aircraft reconnaissance investigating the system.

By the evening of the 15th, the circulation began consolidating enough to be classified as a tropical storm, with the National Hurricane Center initiating advisories by 10 PM. Tropical Storm Bill gradually became better organized overnight into the morning hours of June 16th, but still had most of the tropical storm force winds near the center across the eastern semicircle of the system. The center of Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on Matagorda Island, Texas at 11:45 AM CDT with sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 997 millibars (29.44 inches). Bill continued to move inland and re-curved northward across Central Texas later that evening into the morning of June 17th.



Impacts from Tropical Storm Bill included tides 3.0 feet MLLW above astronomical predictions along the Upper Texas Coast. Along the Southwest and South Central Louisiana Coast, tides ranged 2.0 - 2.5 feet above astronomical predictions, with total tide values, or the storm surge, ranging from 3.75 to 4.25 feet MLLW. Gusts to tropical storm force were mainly confined to the rain bands along and south of I-10 to the coast and coastal waters on June 15-16th.

The biggest impact was flash flooding during the afternoon and evening of June 17th into June 18th across Southeast Texas. Even though the center of Bill was north of Dallas, TX (creating another flood across the Red River), a persistent southwest to northeast oriented feeder band set up across Southeast Texas, where it persisted with training thunderstorms for most of the afternoon and evening. The highest rainfall total was a CoCoRaHS observation near Kirbyville, TX with 9.51 inches (10.53 storm total), with 8-10 inches of rainfall common for most of Jasper, Newton, Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange Counties. Lake Charles WSR-88D Dual-Pol estimates was higher across Southern Jasper County estimating 12-15 inches possible, but no ground truth observations were available.

Quoting 507. washingtonian115:

I got 3.01 inches yesterday from the rain more expected Monday and Tuesday before the month closes.

I have too many trees for a good rain guage exposure but I also got 3-4". Some sewer backup flooding (again!!) in my
old hyattsville md neighborhood I moved away from five years ago.

Looks like some drying this week but slow with several good rain chances. Garden is too sodden to work.. rare in late June.

Quoting 441. sar2401:

Yeah, but, next time you go to a casino, you're due to hit it big. Where's my rabbit's foot?...:-)


The next time you go to Las Vegas, use my MATHEMATICALLY PROVEN SYSTEM. BEATS ALMOST ALL OTHERS OUT THERE. YOU CAN't LOSE. A PROMINENT PROFESSIONAL SOCIETY THAT USED IT WAS ASKED TO LEAVE AND NEVER RETURN (true story)

"DONT GAMBLE"

There was that so hard?
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

I'm wondering if July will be continue the rain surplus that we have now or will we be dry? July is one of the driest months here in the Mid-Atlantic.
R.N.A has seen 11.93 inches of rain so it won't take much to tie or surpass it. We had little in the way of lighting and thunder yesterday thanks to the wedge.It put a cap on any storms that may have erupted other wise if we had sunshine.


I think the wetness will persist but with reduced intensity. Yep the wedge saved us!!
We need something over two inches to break the June 2006 DCA record monthly rainfall for June. That was due to an incredibly wet fourth week of the month with massive flash flooding over a large region. I had 6" overnight one night, a nearby station reported 10".

Quoting 542. georgevandenberghe:



I think the wetness will persist but with reduced intensity. Yep the wedge saved us!!
We need something over two inches to break the June 2006 DCA record monthly rainfall for June. That was due to an incredibly wet fourth week of the month with massive flash flooding over a large region. I had 6" overnight one night, a nearby station reported 10".


I remember June 2006 well.It rained so hard one time I couldn't make the houses out across the street.I picked up 16 inches that June.My garden is becoming a soggy mess.I have to go and clean out the drain from gunk that may have got down in there.
I still do believe July will be rainy, the pattern supports it even though July tends to be the hottest month and dry. June and August, are usually the wet months.
All I can say is the flowers in the garden, and the grass have been getting a good drink!
GFS in about 2 weeks,might have something to watch,whatever it is.............
might be some flooding issues,been raining pretty much in the same area for days............
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

GAC049-065-299-282030-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-150628T2030Z/
WARE GA-CLINCH GA-CHARLTON GA-
351 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH AND WEST CENTRAL CHARLTON
COUNTIES...

AT 351 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARGO AND STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8265 3088 8219 3058 8221 3059 8258
3066 8258 3068 8259 3069 8258 3071 8259
3072 8262 3072 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 260DEG 27KT 3068 8233

$$

NELSON
550. vis0

Quoting 438. Webberweather53:




Just a reminder, we're still trailing the 1997-98 & 1987-88 El Ninos by a substantial margin in terms of Equatorial Pacific U850...

March 1-June 25 Equatorial Pacific lower level zonal wind anomalies

1997


1987


This Year


& 1982-83 is also catching up quite quickly.


You've came up with some crazy garbage of late, but this one tops them all, lmao...



First thank you for the exact date comparisons and hard work.

Second i vis0 will add some more garbage but unlike others i am 100% qualified to do so. See of my many jobs, Hospital housekeeper (fancy name for in building garbage man) / maintenance where my main jobs.

As i've posted before this theory but this time i can point to the image inserts you posted showing how there is a very cold pool south of ENSO-center. (i don't like to use "ENSO1, 2, 3, 2-3, 4, 4-3, 3-4??" i prefer ENSO divided into thirds as east, west & center. Why? Has to do with how i divide Earth's energy field, 'nuff on that.

Only 1987 (of the graphics posted) seems to have had a cool pool with a some what of a southern (SW/SSW) direction from ENSO as to moderate or hifger ENSO/El Niños..

i wonder if the old 1800s el Niño you are researching had a cooler pool directly under what today is ENSO-center.

Could it be that as we go into the main period when El Niño wakes up (Oct. - Feb. YRYR) that area of cool waters in warming up LATER adds a greater opportunity for the Atmosphere to absorb/pick up more moisture.

How? (i'm explaining to a top professor how weather "works"?, my apology for my coarse manner of trying to explain scientific actions within nature.)

If all ENSO areas are warm there is a cap as to the moisture rising 'cause as the warmth is used up, it cools that ENSO area and that means there has to be a lull in the use of ENSO energy from that area as the ocean has to warm up again.

But if ENSO-w & ENSO-e are warmer (If ENSO-e is warmer and this theory occurs, western North America receives more moisture ) while ENSO-center is slightly cooler or has a cool pool south of it then as both ENSO-w&e use up their warmth while ENSO-c (center) begins to warm up, then ENSO-c fills in the lull of ENSO-e (not going into specifics as to why ENSO-e would have more of an opportunity than ENSO-w to attract more of the ENSO energy flow, has to do with HIGHs & LOWs to WxTrends created by ENSO-e warming while ENSO-w is stable or cooling, and most important AS TO THIS TIME, a device that will enhance the aforementioned H & L affect if nature doesn't, but let me not get into stuff that most think does not exist.)

May analogy to explain the stated theory above.

We have a teeter-totter, the warming side is heavier than the stable or cooling side, warming NOT warmer is the operative word.
In the middle of the teeter-totter is the cooler ENSO-center or even a cool pool south of ENSO-center that either maintains is size or grows a bit as the El Niño pattern grows.

Since the teeter-tooter was leaning towards the warming side ENSO-e as the ENSO-center then begins warming up(becoming heavier) its momentum will be to move towards the ENSO-e side, as thats the direction where ENSO is warming therefore the teeter-totter has its downward slop towards ENSO-e, UNLESS ENSO-w can warn up faster than ENSO-center in that case the ENSO-c warming will either stay in the middle or head towards ENSO-w.
In ENSO-center warming up from a cooler point it can maintain the teeter-tooter- tilted towards the east LONGER as what weighs down the teeter-tooter IN THIS ANALOGY is the act of WARMING (not being warmer or at max warmth) .

Since the cool area has a longer duration in warming up because its base temperature began from a cooler level it can keep that teetter-totter 'weighted" towards ENSI0-e as that ENSO-C goes through its long term warming and if that is long enough ENSO-e could have warmed up again, That theory then adds another 2 to 3 months of high moisture content for ENSO-e to share where ever it ends up at,...except SAR2401 block.

(it was either the 99.9% zilly or a cartoon of a dead dish beginning to stink...garbage)

BACK to OBSERVING weather...
Quoting 534. islander101010:
elons.tesla?..will.it.ever.make.money?

yes it will, but it'll take about a decade.
skeptical
Glad no one was on the SpaceX Dragon when it blew up. This is why you gotta do a lot of unmanned tests...
re Vis #550

I find your comments fascinating and enjoy reading them but when I try to understand them I feel like my neurons are tying in knots .
Quoting 554. SunnyDaysFla:

re Vis #550

I find your comments fascinating and enjoy reading them but when I try to understand them I feel like my neurons are tying in knots .

LOL I agree, need Daksters translater
With the MJO reaching record levels this upcoming week could set the stage for a unprecedented ENSO event.

Euro with its mjo forecast is literally just about off the chart. Amazing!

Quoting 552. islander101010:
skeptical

So was I when they started the Gleevec trials.

Miracles are often nothing more than decades of unrecognized hope and determination.
Quoting 546. LargoFl:


That chart is supposed to show the total precipitation that's going to fall between 8:00 am EDT today to 8:OO am EDT on July 13, 15 days from now. The white area of no rainfall extends from central Florida to SE Alabama and then up the coast covering most of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and half of Virginia. We already know it's currently raining in south Georgia, so that already blows that part of the forecast. We already know there's going to be a longwave trough in place covering the entire eastern US for the first seven days of this period. This is going to allow disturbances from the west to swing along the base of the trough and bring rain to many parts of the East for the upcoming week. There is no chance that there will be zero rainfall in those areas of white in the East, let alone no rain over most of Texas. You have found the most bizarre GFS/NCEP forecast I've ever seen, and it illustrates once again why 15 day forecasts are so worthless.
Quoting 556. StormTrackerScott:

With the MJO reaching record levels this upcoming week could set the stage for a unprecedented ENSO event.

Euro with its mjo forecast is literally just about off the chart. Amazing!




I'm going to wait and see what happens. The models are quite bad/unreliable at predicting the strength of the MJO. Quite a lot of the time it ends up being weaker than forecast.

Quite a weird El Nino this is though, especially with above-average rain in association with the Indian monsoon, which would normally be below-average during an El Nino event. I assume there's a lot more surprises in store. Very interesting to watch how it develops though!
Quoting 534. islander101010:

elons.tesla?..will.it.ever.make.money?


Tesla Motors Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA -
Jun 26 4:03 PM EDT
267.09 Price decrease1.70 (0.63%)

July 2 2010
19.20
What would all this mean then?
Quoting 559. Envoirment:



I'm going to wait and see what happens. The models are quite bad/unreliable at predicting the strength of the MJO. Quite a lot of the time it ends up being weaker than forecast.

Quite a weird El Nino this is though, especially with above-average rain in association with the Indian monsoon, which would normally be below-average during an El Nino event. I assume there's a lot more surprises in store. Very interesting to watch how it develops though!
Quoting 557. aquak9:


So was I when they started the Gleevec trials.

Miracles are often nothing more than decades of unrecognized hope and determination.


It gives people their future back. So happy for you.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
613 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FLZ024-025-032-033-125-282300-
INLAND DUVAL FL-CLAY FL-ST. JOHNS FL-INLAND NASSAU FL-
COASTAL DUVAL FL-
613 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN ST.
JOHNS...DUVAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRYCEVILLE TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAXVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ORANGE PARK...MIDDLEBURG...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL
ARPT...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...UNF...FRUIT COVE...MANDARIN...ARLINGTON...
NEPTUNE BEACH...ORTEGA...CRAIG FIELD...RIVERSIDE...SAN MARCO...
OAKLEAF PLANTATION...NOCATEE...DURBIN...SWITZERLAND...FLEM ING ISLAND
AND NAS JAX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3005 8133 3003 8205 3026 8205 3051 8194
3056 8158 3055 8159 3052 8154 3056 8151
3048 8141 3042 8141 3040 8140 3038 8148
3037 8146 3038 8145 3040 8139 3031 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 259DEG 26KT 3046 8191 3011 8207

$$
564. vis0
image host
What does it mean...NOTHING


Was to be the NOAA seagull like LOGO taking a break & going over Florida and grabbing a dancing Gieko Grothar mentioned in his rare rain report, figured Geiko fans might riot.

Then thought okay fly it over Europe and become part of the European MODEL logo, too soon as both GFS & Euros have their strong points, i'm told

So it just took a scenic {sea-nick] break and came back.

Notice i did not touch the comments on the "Tour de Leather" out in Seatteite country.
Quoting 554. SunnyDaysFla:

re Vis #550

I find your comments fascinating and enjoy reading them but when I try to understand them I feel like my neurons are tying in knots .


vis0 is still, by far, my favorite blogger here.
566. beell

(click image for watch discussion-page refresh for current county wide warnings)


(click for discussion)

I think it's going to take a tropical disturbance to take care of the drought here in east central Florida.
Quoting 547. LargoFl:

GFS in about 2 weeks,might have something to watch,whatever it is.............
Quoting 545. Climate175:

All I can say is the flowers in the garden, and the grass have been getting a good drink!


I'm sodden, beyond a good drink. Hopefully some drying this week but it doesn't look continuous or fast.

Quoting 567. hurricanewatcher61:

I think it's going to take a tropical disturbance to take care of the drought here in east central Florida.
yes it sure seems that way, and one that stalls out Over south florida,you folks sure are in a severe drought..sure looked like you'd get a lot of rain this weekend..didn't happen as was expected,or enough to ease the drought some.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO AND TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER THIS REGION.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BURLINGTON IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FARMINGTON
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33030.


...HART
Quoting 556. StormTrackerScott:

With the MJO reaching record levels this upcoming week could set the stage for a unprecedented ENSO event.

Euro with its mjo forecast is literally just about off the chart. Amazing!





The odds of just a moderate event are fast fading into the rear view mirror.
Quoting 571. cytochromeC:




The odds of just a moderate event are fast fading into the rear view mirror.



????

Gee..its been a LONG time since a warning like this was issued for the Miami area huh..........FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
551 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FLC086-290045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0016.150628T2151Z-150629T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
551 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 3 INCHES.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COUNTRY WALK...RICHMOND WEST...THE HAMMOCKS...KENDALE LAKES AND
INLIKITA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&

LAT...LON 2561 8042 2560 8047 2562 8055 2568 8055
2569 8042

$$

We Recycle everything in Calif. and a tub full of bath water is no exception. I have been watering my plants with the dish water and now I have 21 gallons of water that would normally get sent down the drain. Nope the bushes and trees outside got to divvy it up amongst themselves 3 gallons at a time. These bushes don't get much water because I don't water them. Lot of work to do that, need to get a siphon hose. Couldn't waste that water. Was worth it... Oh, 95.8F here...
Quoting 551. aquak9:


yes it will, but it'll take about a decade.


Apparently Telsa is making money now. And they don't even have to take the credits they sell to other cay manufacturers into account any more - like they used to.

Elon is a smart person. We need to get him on board with helping with the climate too. Even more than his cars and battery backups for houses will.

I am actually disappointed that he is having trouble with his rockets, but still not 100% surprised. Seeing as entire countries have those issues too.

Anyways - another overcast, but awesome temperature day up here. So time for me to go out and enjoy for a bit. Temps just broke into the low 60's.
Quoting 574. PedleyCA:

We Recycle everything in Calif. and a tub full of bath water is no exception. I have been watering my plants with the dish water and now I have 21 gallons of water that would normally get sent down the drain. Nope the bushes and trees outside got to divvy it up amongst themselves 3 gallons at a time. These bushes don't get much water because I don't water them. Lot of work to do that, need to get a siphon hose. Couldn't waste that water. Was worth it... Oh, 95.8F here...


I am proud of you Ped. Not that it means much, but I am proud.
577. txjac
Quoting 576. Dakster:



I am proud of you Ped. Not that it means much, but I am proud.


I was thinking the same thing Dak ...an inspiration to us
NWS Miami has been indicating/implying for a few days that South Florida might undergo a Pattern Change this week, and have flip flopped in regards to a Stormy pattern over the July 4th Weekend. This is my interpretations of their subtle language. However, today was the first day that they clearly expressed theses possibilities. As others have mentioned, a few models have been showing a wetter pattern for the area. Great News if this comes to fruition.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 282018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
Quoting 571. cytochromeC:




The odds of just a moderate event are fast fading into the rear view mirror.


Yup, Infact gone as we are on the cusp of our first 1.5C reading for Nino 3.4 and we won't be looking back as there is a rather robust Kelvin Wave set to surface the next 2 weeks and add to that a very strong WWB coming across to really set the wheels in motion. We are behind 1997 levels right now but that looks to change over the next 3 weeks.
Basically the next 30 days is a weather geeks dream as you have typhoon city getting ready to pop off across the W-Pac aided by a 30knt WWB. Also one of these Typhoons could very well recurve causing a deep trough across the East with the possibility of a trough split off FL which could yield another named system in 2 to 3 weeks. My point is saddle up folks as we are in for a fun ride.
Quoting 577. txjac:



I was thinking the same thing Dak ...an inspiration to us


Apparently some new houses in water tight areas have a separate grey water storage tank from "black water" so that shower/bath and clothes washer water can be reused/reclaimed. If it wasn't such a huge undertaking it would be nice to be able to retrofit that into already built houses.

If you are a heavy soap person some filtration wouldn't be a bad idea. I always noticed that the grass wasn't greener where the clothes washer discharged. If anything weeds grew better. It will eventually get to the point that a reverse osmosis system or even small sun driven WATER distillation plant could be worth it.
I think between days 11 & 12 we are really going to watch off the SE Coast of a potential tropical system to form.




Well happy birthday me.
8 years ago today I started tracking hurricanes.
Quoting 557. aquak9:


So was I when they started the Gleevec trials.

Miracles are often nothing more than decades of unrecognized hope and determination.
Gleevec really is a miracle drug for people with cancers that Gleevec can attack. We have a friend with GIST (Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor). He was only 51 years old when he was diagnosed. Since GIST has such a high mortality rate, he did the trials. He's now on his sixth year with no new growth in the tumor. Unfortunately, it wasn't effective for the type of leukemia my late wife had, but it has sure given new hope to a lot of cancer patients.

Since I own a few shares of Tesla, my biggest fear is not that they won't eventually turn a profit. It's that Elon Musk will be driving the new prototype too fast and go right off a cliff. I don't know of any other company, including Apple, where its success has been so tied to the ideas and vision of one man. If he's not on the scene, things could get a little dicey.
Notice these lower pressures beginning to pop off the SE Coast. Setting the stage for a mid July Tropical system.

Quoting 582. StormTrackerScott:

I think between days 11 & 12 we are really going to watch off the SE Coast of a potential tropical system to form.








Hey Scott. Yes SE COAST on alert. Also, I saw the near 1.4 Nino 3.4 reading. I'm sure you're thrilled. Congrats. Yes,we need to watch the east coast for a possible tropical cyclone, since I live right on the coast in Savannah Ga.
sar- hubby wants to trade in the 17,000 genny for one of the home/battery systems from Tesla. I'm afraid to give up the genny, honestly, but hubby is a real level-headed guy. Honestly, I'm torn.
Sunday reading



*** New Ocean Winds Satellite Mission to Probe Hurricanes and Tropical Convection

* An experiment on risk-based decision-making in water management using monthly probabilistic forecasts

*** Aircraft Observations of Dry Air, ITCZ, Convective Cloud Systems and Cold Pools in MJO During DYNAMO

Identifying climate change information needs for the Himalaya region - Results from the GLACINDIA Stakeholder Workshop and Training Program

*** Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins

!!! What's really warming the world?

!!! Science Panel Tries to Reinject Reality into Flood Insurance Pricing

Scientists in South Asia struggle to understand heatwave

ASI 2015 update 3: what's it going to be?

!!! 'Hydrothermal siphon' drives water circulation through seafloor: New study explains previous observations of ocean water flowing through the seafloor from one seamount to another



!!! Earth's daily rotation period encoded in an atomic-level protein structure



* Backward moving glacier helps scientists explain glacial earthquakes

*** Analyzing ocean mixing reveals insight on climate: Eddies pull carbon emissions into deep ocean, new model simulates complex process



*** Solving Saturn's 2-billion-year age problem: How does Saturn hide its age?

*** Scientists crack gene secret that lets poppies make morphine

*** The surprisingly important climate policy moment that's coming this week

Antarctic 'Yeti' Crab Uses Hairy Chest to Grow Food



Battle over grassland electrical lines looms in Nebraska

'The Gathering Storm' preview: Marshall Islands brace for rising seas

*** NASA: Turning Black Holes into Dark Matter Labs (video)

* NASA: Supercomputer Shows How an Exoplanet Makes Waves (video)

* NASA IRIS: A Slice of Light (video)

* Tanzania: Farmers to Lose Water Access As Tanzania's Hydropower Runs Dry

!!! Africa: Climate Pressures Threaten Political Stability - Security Experts

Cameroon Trains New Generation of Clean Energy Entrepreneurs
Quoting 575. Dakster:



Apparently Telsa is making money now. And they don't even have to take the credits they sell to other cay manufacturers into account any more - like they used to.

Elon is a smart person. We need to get him on board with helping with the climate too. Even more than his cars and battery backups for houses will.

I am actually disappointed that he is having trouble with his rockets, but still not 100% surprised. Seeing as entire countries have those issues too.

Anyways - another overcast, but awesome temperature day up here. So time for me to go out and enjoy for a bit. Temps just broke into the low 60's.
Tesla's not making a GAAP profit. It has a non-GAAP profit, but that's like saying your household budget has a surplus before you paid the mortgage. They still have a long way to go to be GAAP profitable, and their stock price reflects a belief in Tesla rather than current results. If they can really get the Model 3 down to $40,000 and sell a million units a year they'll make a ton of money.

Musk is already on board with climate change. He has kind of cognitive dissonance thing going on though, where he's in favor of less regulations but is already making money off trading pollution credits. He's in favor of big carbon taxes but also has a stake in both trading carbon credits and having the tax drive people to to his cars. Like everything else with Musk, it's almost impossible to pigeonhole him into any political position.
Quoting 578. Tornadocane:

NWS Miami has been indicating/implying for a few days that South Florida might undergo a Pattern Change this week, and have flip flopped in regards to a Stormy pattern over the July 4th Weekend. This is my interpretations of their subtle language. However, today was the first day that they clearly expressed theses possibilities. As others have mentioned, a few models have been showing a wetter pattern for the area. Great News if this comes to fruition.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 282018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.



A pattern shift would be excellent news. I hope this happens. Also, the FL Peninsula hasn't seen a tropical wave in a good long time.
Quoting 583. JrWeathermanFL:

Well happy birthday me.
8 years ago today I started tracking hurricanes.
Happy B-Day...8 years ago, many were cleaning up after them...:)
Quoting 592. hydrus:




A Super Typhoon possibly recurving near Japan could yield a tropical potential off FL come mid July. Either way there is one heck of a heavy rain signal around FL the next 2 weeks. 8.82" so far for June here at my location which is just above average.
Tornadocane, I found an avatar for you:

First picture ever taken in space (1946)

Quoting 579. StormTrackerScott:



Yup, Infact gone as we are on the cusp of our first 1.5C reading for Nino 3.4 and we won't be looking back as there is a rather robust Kelvin Wave set to surface the next 2 weeks and add to that a very strong WWB coming across to really set the wheels in motion. We are behind 1997 levels right now but that looks to change over the next 3 weeks.
The el nino is still officially in weak levels?
Is my friends from the Cayman still not buying the MJO pulse?

TC on both sides boosting the WWB.
Quoting 594. BaltimoreBrian:

Tornadocane, I found an avatar for you:




Done. Approval Pending. Thank you for the Photo!
Quoting 587. aquak9:

sar- hubby wants to trade in the 17,000 genny for one of the home/battery systems from Tesla. I'm afraid to give up the genny, honestly, but hubby is a real level-headed guy. Honestly, I'm torn.
Hubby may need to do some more calcs before he take the leap. The first issue is that the Powerwall isn't in production yet, and the production, when it does start, is supposedly reserved for the next year. If you actually need a 17kW generator to run your house, the Powerwall is not going to work, since the biggest unit you can buy is 10kW. You can stack more units for a higher power output but I haven't seen the details on that yet. The announced $3500 price is really just the beginning, since it assumes you already have the solar installation large enough to charge the batteries and an inverter large enough to handle the load. If you don't, you'd be looking at somewhere around $15,000 in additional cost. You could just charge the batteries off the grid when you have power but that kind of defeats the whole purpose.

Next there's the problem of how long the Powerwall could actually power your house. Assuming you use 2 kilowatts per hour, the run time for the battery under ideal conditions would be 5 hours. You wouldn't get that though, because the inverter is inherently inefficient, and running the battery flat will damage the battery in the long run. If you were really careful about what got used in your house, you might be able to squeeze 5 hours out but it's more likely it would be 3 hours. The power wall couldn't be used again until it gets at least 8 hours of charge. With the generator, you just need more gas. That power estimate does not include air conditioning. The 17kW generator might power a modest central air system but not much else. You'd need a battery pack of around 100 kWh to get any reasonable power and run time for A/C and maybe a microwave.

I really don't think a Powerwall is very good answer for whole house backup power. If the main issue is riding out something like a five day outage, I'd get the generator converted to propane and get a 250 gallon propane tank, either above ground or buried. You can run for about 10 days off that and not have to worry about the safety issues of gas or the constant refills. Why exactly does hubby want a powerwall, other than it's cool?
Quoting 595. BaltimoreBrian:

First picture ever taken in space (1946)


Must have been from a V-2 rocket. Amazing how much Nazi technology we used in our early rocket program.
Quoting 581. Dakster:



Apparently some new houses in water tight areas have a separate grey water storage tank from "black water" so that shower/bath and clothes washer water can be reused/reclaimed. If it wasn't such a huge undertaking it would be nice to be able to retrofit that into already built houses.

If you are a heavy soap person some filtration wouldn't be a bad idea. I always noticed that the grass wasn't greener where the clothes washer discharged. If anything weeds grew better. It will eventually get to the point that a reverse osmosis system or even small sun driven WATER distillation plant could be worth it.
I used to drain part of my gray water tank into a five gallon bucket and use it to wash the rig and the Suzuki SUV. It was just potable water and some soap, which is what we wash cars with anyway. It did great cleaning the aluminum body of the rig and steel body of the little SUV. A rinse with some potable water and I was done. We are missing out in a big way in terms of water conservation by not using gray water and tertiary treated wastewater for some domestic purposes.
Quoting 597. Gearsts:

Is my friends from the Cayman still not buying the MJO pulse?





dont get him started lol
Quoting 587. aquak9:

sar- hubby wants to trade in the 17,000 genny for one of the home/battery systems from Tesla. I'm afraid to give up the genny, honestly, but hubby is a real level-headed guy. Honestly, I'm torn.


Like Sar pointed out... IMHO, Not a good idea... In addition to you genset might not be bad. Auto transfer over and then if its a multi day event you break out the genset. Or at least it gives you time WITH power to get the genset up and running - assuming you don't have it hooked up with auto start/transfer already.

With as much as we have needed a genset in South Florida I couldn't justify the cost of the propane system. A friend of mine did that, he has 2 - 20KW gensets and 1000 gals. of propane buried in his yard. Cost a FORTUNE to do. When we were without power for 3 weeks in 2005, it cost him $1000 per week to run it. I could have FLOWN to Vegas and stayed in a nice hotel and gambled for what he spent to keep all his house going...

You have to ask yourself, how long and how much have you actually needed backup power?

That powerwall could potentially be GREAT for up here in AK. We have heated garages and the houses are not heated with electricity. Our power usage for the month barely breaks 1000 KWH. Out transfer switch and bam. COuld recharge it on grid or with wind/hydro or solar PV. Winter would be rough on the PV... So far I haven't heard of days without power here, just hours. Also, in winter, no power, no heat = death.
Quoting 602. sar2401:

I used to drain part of my gray water tank into a five gallon bucket and use it to wash the rig and the Suzuki SUV. It was just potable water and some soap, which is what we wash cars with anyway. It did great cleaning the aluminum body of the rig and steel body of the little SUV. A rinse with some potable water and I was done. We are missing out in a big way in terms of water conservation by not using gray water and tertiary treated wastewater for some domestic purposes.

Is there some legal issue of using gray water to say flush toilets?
Topped out today at 96.5F
Quoting 593. StormTrackerScott:



A Super Typhoon possibly recurving near Japan could yield a tropical potential off FL come mid July. Either way there is one heck of a heavy rain signal around FL the next 2 weeks. 8.82" so far for June here at my location which is just above average.
That sounds like a lot of potentials, possibles, coulds, and arounds. It's nice that rain by you and most of Florida is near normal, but SEFL, with roughly 35% of the state's population, is well below normal, 97% below normal by me. By mid July we'll be in an exceptional drought possibly in metro Broward County.
Quoting 564. vis0:

image host
What does it mean...NOTHING


Was to be the NOAA seagull like LOGO taking a break & going over Florida and grabbing a dancing Gieko Grothar mentioned in his rare rain report, figured Geiko fans might riot.

Then thought okay fly it over Europe and become part of the European MODEL logo, too soon as both GFS & Euros have their strong points, i'm told

So it just took a scenic {sea-nick] break and came back.

Notice i did not touch the comments on the "Tour de Leather" out in Seatteite country.
LOL. So true about the models too.
Quoting 605. PedleyCA:


Is there some legal issue of using gray water to say flush toilets?
Topped out today at 96.5F


At home or commercial places? At home, I don't see how their could be. In fact, if I use grey water to water my grass I am exempt from water restrictions (for that water only).

Commercial might have some rules. I know in places high up in the mountains that have to truck water up, commercial places water the grass and run toilets with non-potable/reclaimed water SAY so with signs all over.

-- SAR -- I saw your post with Tesla. It was mainly that they can build and sell cars at a profit now and are doing so. It does get much better if they can pull off that Model 3. Also, Elon plays all angles. That way no matter what happens he wins. It is why the climate change denier folks reasoning's are flawed. Big business and the ultra-rich have all the angles/sides covered. No matter what happens they make money.
Hey BB. Thanks again for the articles you post, they are always outstanding.
Quoting 605. PedleyCA:

Is there some legal issue of using gray water to say flush toilets?
Topped out today at 96.5F
I can't imagine why there would be. You're using much cleaner water to flush than what's going into the sewer from the toilet. I put in a diverter to use the gray water tank to flush the toilet in the RV into the black tank. It saved a lot of fresh water when I was boondocking out in the desert. The water in the toilet bowl look a little...well, gray, but it didn't have an offensive odor, and all the soap kept the toilet bowl nice and clean.
611. 882MB
Quoting 604. Dakster:



Like Sar pointed out... IMHO, Not a good idea... In addition to you genset might not be bad. Auto transfer over and then if its a multi day event you break out the genset. Or at least it gives you time WITH power to get the genset up and running - assuming you don't have it hooked up with auto start/transfer already.

With as much as we have needed a genset in South Florida I couldn't justify the cost of the propane system. A friend of mine did that, he has 2 - 20KW gensets and 1000 gals. of propane buried in his yard. Cost a FORTUNE to do. When we were without power for 3 weeks in 2005, it cost him $1000 per week to run it. I could have FLOWN to Vegas and stayed in a nice hotel and gambled for what he spent to keep all his house going...

You have to ask yourself, how long and how much have you actually needed backup power?

That powerwall could potentially be GREAT for up here in AK. We have heated garages and the houses are not heated with electricity. Our power usage for the month barely breaks 1000 KWH. Out transfer switch and bam. COuld recharge it on grid or with wind/hydro or solar PV. Winter would be rough on the PV... So far I haven't heard of days without power here, just hours. Also, in winter, no power, no heat = death.
40 kW's worth of generators and a 1000 gallon propane tank? Sounds like some power outage or another must have scarred him for life. The main reason we need a generator or backup power supply is to run refrigerators and freezers. Some lights at night, a couple of fans, and maybe a microwave if you unplug the freezer while it's running. Most homes can get by on a 7.5kW generator unless you've got a real McMansion. Even then, you can just move into a couple of rooms and be reasonably comfortable. The vast majority of power outages are one hour or less. The really extreme cases like Ivan in Alabama aren't going to work to have your house be just like normal unless you've got lots of money. Like you said, just fly out or take a cruise until things get fixed. Having the only house in the neighborhood with lights on means you'd better be well armed and be prepared to repel boarders.
watching.gulf
A very strong tornado is likely heading straight for the St. Charles, MO area. Debris ball showing up on radar.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
813 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MOC183-189-290130-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-150629T0130Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
813 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS
AND CENTRAL ST. CHARLES COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR ST. PETERS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ST. CHARLES AROUND 820 PM CDT.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES FIRST MISSOURI STATE CAPITOL HISTORIC SITE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 216 TO EXIT 231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
Why exactly does hubby want a powerwall, other than it's cool?

Cause it's cool, hahaha. Same reason we invested in Bloomsky.

You've brought up some very valid points and I appreciate the effort you put into the response.

Dakster- thanks for the input, too.

Quoting 608. Dakster:



At home or commercial places? At home, I don't see how their could be. In fact, if I use grey water to water my grass I am exempt from water restrictions (for that water only).

Commercial might have some rules. I know in places high up in the mountains that have to truck water up, commercial places water the grass and run toilets with non-potable/reclaimed water SAY so with signs all over.

-- SAR -- I saw your post with Tesla. It was mainly that they can build and sell cars at a profit now and are doing so. It does get much better if they can pull off that Model 3. Also, Elon plays all angles. That way no matter what happens he wins. It is why the climate change denier folks reasoning's are flawed. Big business and the ultra-rich have all the angles/sides covered. No matter what happens they make money.
They are selling cars at a gross profit. That's not the same as net, which is why they aren't making a GAAP profit. At some point they have to make a real profit if they want to remain publicly traded. And you're right about Elon and all the angles. He's an environmentalist darling while he's make hundreds of millions selling pollution credits to the Big Three so they can keep making monster pickups. I don't begrudge him the money - the angles are there for him to play. It's just that little people like us don't have the power and money to get in on the game.
I have friends in St. Peters, the debris ball isn't far away from them.
#612 - Sar2401

It is a McMansion. He wasted the only one with the lights on. No doubt they (and others) are well armed too...

I got by with my 5.5KW and I was able to have hot water, refrigerators, lights, fans, and even a TV on. When it was REALLY hot, a portable AC worked well to make a "cool room" to go to and sleep in.

I have used the portable generator after Wilma in 2005 MAYBE 3x since then and only once was it for more than a few hours. Which is why I don't think spending a lot of money on backup power is worth it. If a hurricane destroys things, I fly my family out.... It isn't worth the risk of being in a dangerous environment. Everytime I have been in an area a major hurricane has gone through. I have gotten sick from all the mold, bacteria, and who knows what else is around. And because of my job, I get to see the end result that that simple mistake in the aftermath can cause - from being electrocuted, to falling off ladders, to CO poisoning, heat stroke, and being robbed because you have food.

These are the reasons I wish that a hurricane doesn't hit any populated areas. I understand the desire to be in one or to see one. But there is great tragedy that comes along with them.
Quoting 616. aquak9:

Why exactly does hubby want a powerwall, other than it's cool?

Cause it's cool, hahaha. Same reason we invested in Bloomsky.

You've brought up some very valid points and I appreciate the effort you put into the response.

Dakster- thanks for the input, too.




YW... Sar did all the heavy lifting in the response...

I am constantly researching backup power and clean power generation methods. I wish I could say that to have reliable backup power you don't need a fossil fuel generator, but that just isn't the case at this point in time. I am hoping that my next house will be suited to green power generation. Whether that is wind, hydro, and/or solar.
Quoting 618. CybrTeddy:

I have friends in St. Peters, the debris ball isn't far away from them.


Just heard from them. They heard the sirens and saw a lot of fast moving clouds but didn't see a funnel.
Quoting 605. PedleyCA:


Is there some legal issue of using gray water to say flush toilets?
Topped out today at 96.5F
One issue with gray water that did not exist formerly is the modern use of antibacterial soaps for hand washing and bathing. They not only will affect the bacteria in the lawn, they aren't good for the ones in the septic tank either. Our national fixation on cleanliness is going to bite us on the behind yet.
Quoting 616. aquak9:

Why exactly does hubby want a powerwall, other than it's cool?

Cause it's cool, hahaha. Same reason we invested in Bloomsky.

You've brought up some very valid points and I appreciate the effort you put into the response.

Dakster- thanks for the input, too.


LOL. You put money in the Kickstarter fund for Bloomsky? You guys really are gadget freaks. :-) I'm waiting to see one in person. They are supposed to ship in July. They've slipped that date at least three times now but I guess they'll eventually get them out.

Sometimes cool doesn't mean the best. For example, you can get a 2.25 kW 6 volt deep cycle battery for about $185. You can wire 6 of them together and have the equivalent of a 13.5 kW battery for about $1200 delivered. Add another $100 for wiring and you're set, again assuming you've already got the infrastructure to handle charging batteries. The downside is they take up space and need to be maintained. The upside is you can replace a bad battery without having to replace them all and you save $2200. Of course, you can't hang it on a wall and show it off to all your friends.

I think Elon may have this one wrong. He's selling what seems to be a dumbed down solution to people who must have some technical knowledge to already have a solar system in place. It could appeal to people with enough money to just tell an installation company to take of everything and give them the bill, but I kind of doubt that's a very big market. The Powerwall is not going to be able to go through many more discharge cycles than a well maintained battery bank so it's going to be a really expensive solution for people looking for backup power. Of course, the vast majority of people who buy this aren't going to go through more than a couple of relatively short outages a year so they'll never have to deal with the problem of discharge cycles. For just plain jane backup power, it's hard to beat a good generator and transfer switch. But it's not a cool thing to show off at your next cocktail party. :-)
624. JRRP

fuera abajoooooooo !!!
625. 882MB
94W and 95W, in the W-PAC, and 90P in the S-PAC.

Quoting 625. 882MB:

94W and 95W, in the W-PAC, and 90P in the S-PAC.




With one of the strongest Summer MJO's ever expect the W-Pac to catch fire.
Quoting 613. islander101010:

watching.gulf
watching golf might be better.
sar- LOL. You put money in the Kickstarter fund for Bloomsky? You guys really are gadget freaks.

They shipped, they're great.

Quoting 619. Dakster:

#612 - Sar2401

It is a McMansion. He wasted the only one with the lights on. No doubt they (and others) are well armed too...

I got by with my 5.5KW and I was able to have hot water, refrigerators, lights, fans, and even a TV on. When it was REALLY hot, a portable AC worked well to make a "cool room" to go to and sleep in.

I have used the portable generator after Wilma in 2005 MAYBE 3x since then and only once was it for more than a few hours. Which is why I don't think spending a lot of money on backup power is worth it. If a hurricane destroys things, I fly my family out.... It isn't worth the risk of being in a dangerous environment. Everytime I have been in an area a major hurricane has gone through. I have gotten sick from all the mold, bacteria, and who knows what else is around. And because of my job, I get to see the end result that that simple mistake in the aftermath can cause - from being electrocuted, to falling off ladders, to CO poisoning, heat stroke, and being robbed because you have food.

These are the reasons I wish that a hurricane doesn't hit any populated areas. I understand the desire to be in one or to see one. But there is great tragedy that comes along with them.
Seriously, imagine you're the only house with lights on in a sea of darkness...assuming your house isn't too badly damaged. At that point, lights = water, food, and money. It's not going to attract the neighborhood knitting club. My motorhome has a 5kW propane generator. It runs the A/C, microwave, all the lights, water heater, water pumps, TV...all the amenities of modern living, while the fridge runs off the same propane. The interior space on the rig is about 200 square feet. As long as you convert the house into 200 square feet of living, a relatively small generator will get you by. But, like you say, most of the time, you'd be fine if you just lit some candles and read a book for a while.

I don't really understand people who want to stay and "protect" their house. If a hurricane is bad enough, there may not be much to protect. If your house is more or less spared, you're still sitting there with no utilities, no services, heat, bugs, snakes, gators, mold, and a stinking mess of everything rotting. Then you still have to sit in your lawn chair all night with your shotgun. It's just not worth it, and that's why I have insurance. If there was a cat 5 bearing down on me I'd get a hotel room 500 miles away and watch it all on TWC, assuming it was water night for them. :-)
So after the El nino is long and gone what then will be the subject?
Quoting 628. aquak9:

sar- LOL. You put money in the Kickstarter fund for Bloomsky? You guys really are gadget freaks.

They shipped, they're great.


Really, you got one? What do you like about it compared to what a connected weather station can do? The camera part seems pretty cool, but I guess you must also be an Apple family to make much use of one now.
Quoting 627. unknowncomic:

watching golf might be better.
Or grass.grow
Quoting 630. washingtonian115:

So after the El nino is long and gone what then will be the subject?
I will start posting about La nina and i expect a strong event -2.0!
Quoting 593. StormTrackerScott:



A Super Typhoon possibly recurving near Japan could yield a tropical potential off FL come mid July. Either way there is one heck of a heavy rain signal around FL the next 2 weeks. 8.82" so far for June here at my location which is just above average.



It's been a wildly wet June here, I just got 2.24 this morning in just minutes, incredibly heavy rain, the rainfall rate for about 5 minutes was the worst I've seen this year, I could barely see my neighbor's house across the street, and the street and yard were flooded with standing water for a bit. The lightning and wind was crazy too, we had really intense, close lightning hits.

The thunderstorm was more like what you'd see along a sea breeze collision during peak heating. We've had some unusually strong thunderstorms off the ocean in the morning this June so far. After today's rain I'm up to 14.40 for June! the average is 7.67, so I'm almost 200% of average. It's been wild here, the grass is growing like it's on steroids and the mosquitoes are swarming even during the day, I got about 10 bites cutting the lawn at 5 pm yesterday!

I'm concerned about how warm water temps are in the gulf, especially eastern gulf, even if we don't get a major hurricane here, if a strong upper trough or tropical wave were to stall in the east gulf, we could get terrible flooding over the state from heavy rains. Warm waters don't just fuel hurricanes, but also heavy rain evens, which is why the closer you get to the gulf coast from southeast Texas to Florida the higher the probability of a 3 inch plus rain event. Warm oceans store energy like a battery, the right weather pattern that can create large scale rising air over the ocean, even if it's not a hurricane, could lead to an epic flooding event in Florida. Cape and low level moisture have been crazy high over the east gulf and Florida due to the well above average water temps.

The coolest buoys in the east gulf or 88-89, the warmest are as high as 93-94 which is very anomalous, likely is near a record for this time year.
.
Quoting 632. sar2401:

Or grass.grow


You can watch the grass grow in Alaska and other plants. I can't believe how fast stuff grows and changes here.
Quoting 634. Jedkins01:




It's been a wildly wet June here, I just got 2.24 this morning in just minutes, incredibly heavy rain, the rainfall rate for about 5 minutes was the worst I've seen this year, I could barely see my neighbor's house across the street, and the street and yard were flooded with standing water for a bit. The lightning and wind was crazy too, we had really intense, close lightning hits.

The thunderstorm was more like what you'd see along a sea breeze collision during peak heating. We've had some unusually strong thunderstorms off the ocean in the morning this June so far. After today's rain I'm up to 14.40 for June! the average is 7.67, so I'm almost 200% of average. It's been wild here, the grass is growing like it's on steroids and the mosquitoes are swarming even during the day, I got about 10 bites cutting the lawn at 5 pm yesterday!

I'm concerned about how warm water temps are in the gulf, especially eastern gulf, even if we don't get a major hurricane here, if a strong upper trough or tropical wave were to stall in the east gulf, we could get terrible flooding over the state from heavy rains. Warm waters don't just fuel hurricanes, but also heavy rain evens, which is why the closer you get to the gulf coast from southeast Texas to Florida the higher the probability of a 3 inch plus rain event. Warm oceans store energy like a battery, the right weather pattern that can create large scale rising air over the ocean, even if it's not a hurricane, could lead to an epic flooding event in Florida. Cape and low level moisture have been crazy high over the east gulf and Florida due to the well above average water temps.

The coolest buoys in the east gulf or 88-89, the warmest are as high as 93-94 which is very anomalous, likely is near a record for this time year.


HRRR & WRF models are showing 2" to 3" of rain tomorrow for C FL. as a front moves in.
Quoting 630. washingtonian115:

So after the El nino is long and gone what then will be the subject?

The next imminent super El Nino, of course.

Aren't you excited?
so what happened to the storm around St Peters?
Quoting 630. washingtonian115:

So after the El nino is long and gone what then will be the subject?


Deez nuts.



Sorry. I just think everyone needs a laugh please don't kill me. :-P
Quoting 622. CaneFreeCR:

One issue with gray water that did not exist formerly is the modern use of antibacterial soaps for hand washing and bathing. They not only will affect the bacteria in the lawn, they aren't good for the ones in the septic tank either. Our national fixation on cleanliness is going to bite us on the behind yet.

No Lawn and no septic tank. I see your point though....
Quoting 638. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The imminent super El Nino, of course.

Aren't you excited?


There so much going on how can't you not be exciting. This next MJO pulse combined with a possibly recurving Typhoon could yield another tropical system as a result of a upper trough off FL in 2 to 3 weeks.
Quoting 634. Jedkins01:




It's been a wildly wet June here, I just got 2.24 this morning in just minutes, incredibly heavy rain, the rainfall rate for about 5 minutes was the worst I've seen this year, I could barely see my neighbor's house across the street, and the street and yard were flooded with standing water for a bit. The lightning and wind was crazy too, we had really intense, close lightning hits.

The thunderstorm was more like what you'd see along a sea breeze collision during peak heating. We've had some unusually strong thunderstorms off the ocean in the morning this June so far. After today's rain I'm up to 14.40 for June! the average is 7.67, so I'm almost 200% of average. It's been wild here, the grass is growing like it's on steroids and the mosquitoes are swarming even during the day, I got about 10 bites cutting the lawn at 5 pm yesterday!

I'm concerned about how warm water temps are in the gulf, especially eastern gulf, even if we don't get a major hurricane here, if a strong upper trough or tropical wave were to stall in the east gulf, we could get terrible flooding over the state from heavy rains. Warm waters don't just fuel hurricanes, but also heavy rain evens, which is why the closer you get to the gulf coast from southeast Texas to Florida the higher the probability of a 3 inch plus rain event. Warm oceans store energy like a battery, the right weather pattern that can create large scale rising air over the ocean, even if it's not a hurricane, could lead to an epic flooding event in Florida. Cape and low level moisture have been crazy high over the east gulf and Florida due to the well above average water temps.

The coolest buoys in the east gulf or 88-89, the warmest are as high as 93-94 which is very anomalous, likely is near a record for this time year.
Yeah, but you've got to remember you are in a relatively small corridor of above average rainfall. Most of the areas around you aren't like that at all. Most of Florida could take a fair bit of rain before there are any flooding issues. The eastern Gulf just hasn't shown much sign of being destabilized this month even though there have been several troughs in the Gulf. The remnants of the front must be right over me since I keep switch between north and south winds. Even with the front relatively close to the Gulf there's almost no convection there now. I really think the area north of the Bahamas and offshore from Daytona Beach is more primed for something happening than the Gulf. That could all change in seven days, of course, but these fronts even making it down close to the Gulf in late June is usually not the setup even for heavy rain.
Quoting 635. aquak9:

sar- you have wu-mail-

let me know you got it-
I did, thanks for reminding me. I just noticed I have one from the 19th which I haven't read. I really hate that little envelope thing. That color is part of the spectrum that I don't see well because of my color blindness so, if I notice it at all, it just looks like a dim outline. I wish I had the option to change the color or size.

And you are such a geek!:-)
Quoting 638. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The imminent super El Nino, of course.

Aren't you excited?
or, the imminent Super La Nina. We'll never escape. :-)
Quoting 550. vis0:


First thank you for the exact date comparisons and hard work.

Second i vis0 will add some more garbage but unlike others i am 100% qualified to do so. See of my many jobs, Hospital housekeeper (fancy name for in building garbage man) / maintenance where my main jobs.

As i've posted before this theory but this time i can point to the image inserts you posted showing how there is a very cold pool south of ENSO-center. (i don't like to use "ENSO1, 2, 3, 2-3, 4, 4-3, 3-4??" i prefer ENSO divided into thirds as east, west & center. Why? Has to do with how i divide Earth's energy field, 'nuff on that.

Only 1987 (of the graphics posted) seems to have had a cool pool with a some what of a southern (SW/SSW) direction from ENSO as to moderate or hifger ENSO/El Niños..

i wonder if the old 1800s el Niño you are researching had a cooler pool directly under what today is ENSO-center.

Could it be that as we go into the main period when El Niño wakes up (Oct. - Feb. YRYR) that area of cool waters in warming up LATER adds a greater opportunity for the Atmosphere to absorb/pick up more moisture.

How? (i'm explaining to a top professor how weather "works"?, my apology for my coarse manner of trying to explain scientific actions within nature.)

If all ENSO areas are warm there is a cap as to the moisture rising 'cause as the warmth is used up, it cools that ENSO area and that means there has to be a lull in the use of ENSO energy from that area as the ocean has to warm up again.

But if ENSO-w & ENSO-e are warmer (If ENSO-e is warmer and this theory occurs, western North America receives more moisture ) while ENSO-center is slightly cooler or has a cool pool south of it then as both ENSO-w&e use up their warmth while ENSO-c (center) begins to warm up, then ENSO-c fills in the lull of ENSO-e (not going into specifics as to why ENSO-e would have more of an opportunity than ENSO-w to attract more of the ENSO energy flow, has to do with HIGHs & LOWs to WxTrends created by ENSO-e warming while ENSO-w is stable or cooling, and most important AS TO THIS TIME, a device that will enhance the aforementioned H & L affect if nature doesn't, but let me not get into stuff that most think does not exist.)

May analogy to explain the stated theory above.

We have a teeter-totter, the warming side is heavier than the stable or cooling side, warming NOT warmer is the operative word.
In the middle of the teeter-totter is the cooler ENSO-center or even a cool pool south of ENSO-center that either maintains is size or grows a bit as the El Niño pattern grows.

Since the teeter-tooter was leaning towards the warming side ENSO-e as the ENSO-center then begins warming up(becoming heavier) its momentum will be to move towards the ENSO-e side, as thats the direction where ENSO is warming therefore the teeter-totter has its downward slop towards ENSO-e, UNLESS ENSO-w can warn up faster than ENSO-center in that case the ENSO-c warming will either stay in the middle or head towards ENSO-w.
In ENSO-center warming up from a cooler point it can maintain the teeter-tooter- tilted towards the east LONGER as what weighs down the teeter-tooter IN THIS ANALOGY is the act of WARMING (not being warmer or at max warmth) .

Since the cool area has a longer duration in warming up because its base temperature began from a cooler level it can keep that teetter-totter 'weighted" towards ENSI0-e as that ENSO-C goes through its long term warming and if that is long enough ENSO-e could have warmed up again, That theory then adds another 2 to 3 months of high moisture content for ENSO-e to share where ever it ends up at,...except SAR2401 block.

(it was either the 99.9% zilly or a cartoon of a dead dish beginning to stink...garbage)

BACK to OBSERVING weather...



Thanks vis0, I always enjoy reading your posts, you definitely have a lot of thoughts running through your brain & I love trying dissecting them all… :)

These graphics are easy to make through NOAA ESRL Daily fields & a photo collage, you just have to apply the same scaling & intervals.

I also recently gave the link to the GCOS Working Group page Link where you’ll find the SST data to HADISST, COBE SST version 1 & 2, IOCADSv2.5, & ERSSTv3b. There are also a bunch of other goodies on the sidebar to your left, here you’ll see HADISST plots of NINO 1-2, 3, 3.4, & 4 SSTs going back to 1870, the raw SLP data for Darwin & Tahiti from CRU (used for SOI) that spans back to 1856, 20th century reconstructions of the SOI, NAO, AO, TPI, NPI, PNA, & SIDC monthly sunspot numbers well into the mid 18th century, etc. In combination w/ the NCEP Reanalysis & ERSSTv4 datasets provided on NOAA ESRL’s operational page, you should now have at a minimum 6 Sea Surface Temperature datasets at your immediate disposal.

Here is a Pentad Averaged, Standardized BEST & MEI.ext plot (1850-Present) from the link provided above. ONDJF is used because this is assumed to be when ENSO generally attains maximum annual amplitude.


These indices are highly correlated (+.947) and show no significant leads/lags between one another…

Comparing w/ all other available ENSO indices, I find it absolutely amazing how two completely independent multivariate indices exhibit higher correlations amongst each other than BEST to either the SOI & Hadley NINO 3.4 SSTs (which are the two components that are used to create BEST itself, lol), any of the adjacent NINO regions, (except for NINO 3 & NINO 3.4), and the operational SOI vs its 20th Century Reconstruction from CRU. Ah, the power of a multivariate index…

The following is a correlation table of the 19th-21st century ENSO indices provided by GCOS. The top 5 correlations are denoted by cells with bold, italicized, & underlined text.


Here’s the same table, now w/ operational NOAA ESRL post-1950 data. Since I added the Tropical Pacific SST EOF, ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI), & ONI (Oceanic NINO Index), I expanded the # of cells with bold, italicized, & underlined text to 10. It’s pretty obvious in seeing that half of the top 10 highest correlations came from the MEI which uses the 6 main components of ENSO, that it blows every other index out of the water, but most of you should (already) know that… (right?). Other than BEST (which is practically correlating w/ itself since the SOI is part of the BEST calculation), the SOI fails to exhibit the exceptionally correlations that are observed w/ the MEI. While somewhat useful for reconstruction purposes & bias correction, a station-based index like the SOI is bound to be inferior because it's highly susceptible white noise & that doesn't represent ENSO


Overall, by calculating the sums of the absolute values from pentad averaged correlations for each individual index, it's clear that the MEI & NINO 3.4 SSTs capture & explain the most variance wrt to ENSO are the preferred modes of measuring its behavior... Well for now @ least... :)

19th-21st Century GCOS Data
BEST 6.326
MEI.ext 6.301
NINO 3 6.251
NINO 3.4 6.227
NINO 4 5.926
SOI 20CR 5.756
SOI 5.717
NINO 1-2 5.420

Operational Post 1950 NOAA ESRL Data
MEI 8.417
NINO 3.4 8.382
TP SST EOF 8.320
ONI 8.272
BEST 8.249
NINO 3 8.189
SOI 7.867
NINO 4 7.766
ESPI 7.716
NINO 1-2 6.948

The NINO 3.4 region is the current standard to measure the Oceanic NINO Index (ONI), because this is where the highest loading patterns to ENSO are found, which is reflected in its high correlations to other indices, that's only second to the MEI in the post 1950 era. However, in my research, along w/ an ensemble of >30 datasets, I will be using the NINO 3.4 & a modified CTI (Cold Tongue Index) region to calculate the 3 strongest components of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) thru the mid-late 19th century. (Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Surface Air Temperature, & Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP)). Rather than this generalized 2-box method, I think that a weighting function &/or Principal Component Analysis (PCA) should eventually be applied once this project is finished. I will get in touch with a few of my friends & professors at NC State to receive their expert opinions & assistance on this…

ONDJF SST correlations (.1C interval +/- .9C max/min) with a variety of ENSO indices (aside from the ENSO regions, which should be fairly self-explanatory). I boxed out the NINO 3.4 region (5S-5N 120-170E) in each image, so you can visually see why the NINO 3.4 was purposely selected as a primary criterion for ENSO.

SOI


BEST


MEI


Tropical Pacific SST EOF


ESPI


Here’s a composite of the year-to-date (January-April) tropical Pacific SST anomalies from those 6 available datasets. (I only go through April in this case because the HADISST updates lag the other sets by one month). It’s fairly obvious that COBE SST & HADISST sets as well as our own reanalysis are superior ERSSTv4 & v3b with regards to integrating satellite data into their fields. Even though NOAA attempted to directly input satellite data from AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) in ERSSTv3 (predecessor to ERSSTv3b), this infrared instrument requires a clear sky to obtain accurate readings of outgoing longer wave radiation from the surface, which is used to derive SSTs. Clouds refract some of this outgoing longwave radiation back towards the surface, and thus cause less to reach these satellite instruments. The cloud contamination in ERSSTv3 & v2 promoted erroneously cool SST residuals which unfortunately even with the proper bias corrections, were still not properly accounted for in ERSSTv3 after further analysis from NOAA. Along with fully addressing some of the issues including the usage of statistical fitting only to account for Engine Room Intake (ERI) measurements (as opposed to a comprehensive in situ-based correction of ERI measurements as w/ HADISST), I would like to satellite data fully incorporated into a future version of ERSST, because it’s obvious without this information, that these sets have thus far struggled to key in on the subtle, yet important, smaller scale features in Equatorial Pacific SST distribution…

The same scaling was used for each image, .15C interval with a +/- 1.5C max/min.
Quoting 638. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The imminent super El Nino, of course.

Aren't you excited?
Lol.In all seriousness I want to know what's going to the leading subject since el nino doom will not be occurring.
648. vis0
Lets play Somon Sez on June 30th i place that Tranquil Amusing Zootheist to head the Simon Sez commands, one catch is that the leader on June 30th says "Simon sez stop everything for 1 second". (thankfully the compu'rs don't have ears...or do they?)
Why time will stop for a second on June 30

i wonder what MODELS will predict & did the Farmers Almanac predict this?
I hate it when my posts get so large they become extremely difficult-near impossible to edit, ugh...
Quoting 633. Gearsts:

I will start posting about La nina and i expect a strong event -2.0!
Well if we're putting out numbers I expect it to be the strongest la nina on Record! The
coast along the Atlantic will be under siege from T.C's all summer long into early fall lol.
Quoting 647. washingtonian115:

Lol.In all seriousness I want to know what's going to the leading subject since el nino doom will not be occurring.


Good luck with that because its already happening whether some like it or not this El-Nino is already at the cusp of being Strong.

Here is a quick update from Weatherwest.

Micro El Niño update

A new, powerful westerly wind burst is currently underway in the far western tropical Pacific, and is expected to strengthen/shift eastward in the coming days. (SUNY Albany)


With each passing week, it seems more and more likely that the world will experience a strong El Niño event in 2015. We’re almost there already–observed conditions are right at the official threshold for declaring a “strong event.” All major dynamical models suggest further strengthening, and several of the best models are still suggesting the potential for quite a bit of additional strengthening.

The latest runs of the CFS are continuing to call for the strongest El Niño event on record by the fall months–and this is starting to look more plausible as we have now mostly emerged from the so-called Spring Predictability Barrier. As of this writing, a new, powerful westerly wind burst was just beginning in the far West Pacific–a very strong sign that a third major Kelvin Wave may be on the way and that this El Niño event will continue to intensify for at least the next 3 months. I’ll continue to follow El Niño developments–in addition to California’s unusually active warm season weather conditions–through the summer. Stay tuned!

Quoting 630. washingtonian115:

So after the El nino is long and gone what then will be the subject?


Knowing this blog, that's a rhetorical question, climate change of course! :/
Quoting 651. StormTrackerScott:



Good luck with that because its already happening whether some like it or not this El-Nino is already at the cusp of being Strong.

Here is a quick update from Weatherwest.

Micro El Niño update

A new, powerful westerly wind burst is currently underway in the far western tropical Pacific, and is expected to strengthen/shift eastward in the coming days. (SUNY Albany)


With each passing week, it seems more and more likely that the world will experience a strong El Niño event in 2015. We’re almost there already–observed conditions are right at the official threshold for declaring a “strong event.” All major dynamical models suggest further strengthening, and several of the best models are still suggesting the potential for quite a bit of additional strengthening.

The latest runs of the CFS are continuing to call for the strongest El Niño event on record by the fall months–and this is starting to look more plausible as we have now mostly emerged from the so-called Spring Predictability Barrier. As of this writing, a new, powerful westerly wind burst was just beginning in the far West Pacific–a very strong sign that a third major Kelvin Wave may be on the way and that this El Niño event will continue to intensify for at least the next 3 months. I’ll continue to follow El Niño developments–in addition to California’s unusually active warm season weather conditions–through the summer. Stay tuned!



Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 14h14 hours ago
No cold tongue W of South America in late Jun means #ElNino is pushing strong levels already, like 1997 #climate
Quoting 652. Webberweather53:



Knowing this blog, that's a rhetorical question, climate change of course! :/


Nailed it LOL!
655. vis0

Quoting 516. Seattlei te:

I heard THUNDER!!!!!!!!!!!

LoL, I'm just a little excited. It's one of the few things I miss about living in other parts of the country. That and hurricane parties. Oh, and some of the food.

Back to weather, an excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

.SHORT TERM...

RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS SHOW A GROUP OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE PUGET SOUND REGION AND AS OF 9 AM THE LEADING EDGE IS AROUND OLYMPIA. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE POPPING UP AROUND THE SOUTH SOUND...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN CLUSTER... AND THESE CELLS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL FROM THE STORMS... AS MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. KOLM HAS ACCUMULATED ONLY THREE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS OF 910 AM.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CASCADES WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BY RAISING A PARCEL FROM THE 650 MB LEVEL ON THE 12Z KUIL SOUNDING...IT CAN BE SHOWN THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 500-800 J/KG THIS MORNING FOR THE COAST... WHICH CAN PROBABLY BE EXTRAPOLATED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE HIGH BASED WITH BASES AROUND 12000 FEET.

I know it's weak, but really just the fact that the words "unstable" and "CAPE" are side by side in my forecast discussion is novel.
I heard SEATTLEI TE!!!!!!!!!!!

On the "huh what happened here" "front", notice Seattle got the CAPE & thunder while east coast got the cloudy cool little thunder as if a onshore NW western or NE FALL storm.
i really was thinking some type of swirl would form off the Carolinas & that blip in NW GoMx would move over off eastern Florida and combine into a category blah tropical mish-mosh.
Cat blah is 1 above a Cat Feh.
They are measured by how fast the tissue (1ply) is blown off a lawn chair, 2min = Feh, 1min = Blah. These storms are rarely recorded as by the time its officialy measuresed as such, the sun has comes out.
Quoting 597. Gearsts:

Is my friends from the Cayman still not buying the MJO pulse?




Yes still not buying it more so with the intensity

The MJO will of course move across the Pacific no doubt the question how big of a pulse which with some of the models I don't buy at all
Quoting 649. Webberweather53:

I hate it when my posts get so large they become extremely difficult-near impossible to edit, ugh...

Yeah. Do you talk that much in real life? I need to know so I can decide how many pairs of earbuds I need to bring with me to NCSU. ;)

Just kidding of course.
wahsed up ULL
Quoting 656. wunderkidcayman:



Yes still not buying it more so with the intensity

The MJO will of course move across the Pacific no doubt the question how big of a pulse which with some of the models I don't buy at all


No offence, but I'll go with the Euro-----
"Beware the anti-post"
We have plenty of RAM for ones own blog entries,


.... Lord have Mercy.

LoL
How's it going in NOLA Patrap? What's your weather like?



Gee, Huh'

I wunder why?

Fine here Dakster. Had some wu friends come in from their cruise today off the Carnival Dream to pick up their car at the House Here.


Was a wet day, but mostly clear tonight and less Humid.

New Orleans, LA
Uptown | Report | Change Station
Report Station
Send Report
Elev 20 ft 29.93 N, 90.12 W

Quoting 623. sar2401:

LOL. You put money in the Kickstarter fund for Bloomsky? You guys really are gadget freaks. :-) I'm waiting to see one in person. They are supposed to ship in July. They've slipped that date at least three times now but I guess they'll eventually get them out.

Sometimes cool doesn't mean the best. For example, you can get a 2.25 kW 6 volt deep cycle battery for about $185. You can wire 6 of them together and have the equivalent of a 13.5 kW battery for about $1200 delivered. Add another $100 for wiring and you're set, again assuming you've already got the infrastructure to handle charging batteries. The downside is they take up space and need to be maintained. The upside is you can replace a bad battery without having to replace them all and you save $2200. Of course, you can't hang it on a wall and show it off to all your friends.

I think Elon may have this one wrong. He's selling what seems to be a dumbed down solution to people who must have some technical knowledge to already have a solar system in place. It could appeal to people with enough money to just tell an installation company to take of everything and give them the bill, but I kind of doubt that's a very big market. The Powerwall is not going to be able to go through many more discharge cycles than a well maintained battery bank so it's going to be a really expensive solution for people looking for backup power. Of course, the vast majority of people who buy this aren't going to go through more than a couple of relatively short outages a year so they'll never have to deal with the problem of discharge cycles. For just plain jane backup power, it's hard to beat a good generator and transfer switch. But it's not a cool thing to show off at your next cocktail party. :-)


While I don't think the PowerWall is a good fit for anywhere where electrical costs are under 15 cents per Kilowatt hour average, and it is pretty much useless for back up power unless you have a functioning solar system, (unlikely after a natural disaster) there is significant difference between the li-ion technology and the lead acid technology.

From my experience maintaining telecom battery plants and gensets, I have found that lead acid, even very expensive lead acid batteries are only good for about 300 charge discharge cycles. While a good set of round cell telecom battles can last for 40 years, it will probably never see. 100 full charge discharge cycles, as each battery plant is backed up by a genset with an automatic transfer switch.

The li-ion batteries can generally take between 1500 and 3000 charge discharge cycles before they are considered used up. Unlike the lead acid batteries though, li-ion have a shelf life. In other words it doesn't matter if you keep them fully charged and never cycle them, they will hold enough less charge to be considered used up in under 10 years.

This isn't to disparage the Power Wall, there are a lot of places in this world with high costs, high peak costs, and intermitant electricity. This is apparent from the fact that the entire Power Wall runs for the next year is sold out.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 602. sar2401:

I used to drain part of my gray water tank into a five gallon bucket and use it to wash the rig and the Suzuki SUV. It was just potable water and some soap, which is what we wash cars with anyway. It did great cleaning the aluminum body of the rig and steel body of the little SUV. A rinse with some potable water and I was done. We are missing out in a big way in terms of water conservation by not using gray water and tertiary treated wastewater for some domestic purposes.


Almost all the water on our property gets used twice. Pig tank gets bucketed out to the Nanking cherries and green gage plums (I think only one of the two made it through the heat.) Duck pond tank in the orchard feeds and waters the fruit trees there. The kiddie pool for the front yard geese waters one part of the yard there. Grey water goes to the same spot. We use Ecover, I think it is, for the laundry, and that grey water goes out to a spot where eventually we'll get raspberries and another fruit tree to grow. Our outdoor solar shower drains into the orchard. (This time of year, there's no point in using anything but passive solar for hot water.) And, of course, our septic system has a drain field where we occasionally let the goats and steers in to eat down the growth.

It's kinda neat. We're pretty hardcore about it, and still manage to grow roses and hops around the hot tub gazebo.
Quoting 601. sar2401:

Must have been from a V-2 rocket. Amazing how much Nazi technology we used in our early rocket program.

Thats because for a large part they ignored Dr Robert Goddard
668. vis0

Quoting 559. Envoirment:



I'm going to wait and see what happens. The models are quite bad/unreliable at predicting the strength of the MJO. Quite a lot of the time it ends up being weaker than forecast.

Quite a weird El Nino this is though, especially with above-average rain in association with the Indian monsoon, which would normally be below-average during an El Nino event. I assume there's a lot more surprises in store. Very interesting to watch how it develops though!


Envoirment & STS i think the main influence of MJO during the Northern Hemisphere's vertically stronger transfer of energies leads me to think a warm core storm(s) would benefit more from the area(s) predicted to be at high MJO (ATL). (stop it, Patrap not singing MJO rising...wishful sinful... )

El Niño  & ENSO's main season is FALL & WINTER (N. HEM) or as i cal it horizontally stronger transfers of energy.

NOW i do give ENSO an opportunity to get some benefits cause even though El Niño is not in the top 3 (of man recorded ENSOs) it is maintaining itself during a period when it should have weakened and since so far MJO high activity being several months before El Niño 'season" leans more towards a stronger El Niño so far that's what we see, if MJO stays strong by FALL i still think its a strong El Niño but as Envoirment said "it all elemental, Watchin, ".

"Negatized" area in graphic is MJO high while nearing ATL

That yellowed out area is the next "2wkAnom", if you know what that means (all 3 of you) observe when the time comes , if you know not, have a pizza.
Quoting 610. sar2401:

I can't imagine why there would be. You're using much cleaner water to flush than what's going into the sewer from the toilet. I put in a diverter to use the gray water tank to flush the toilet in the RV into the black tank. It saved a lot of fresh water when I was boondocking out in the desert. The water in the toilet bowl look a little...well, gray, but it didn't have an offensive odor, and all the soap kept the toilet bowl nice and clean.


Did that take a supplemental pump to defeat gravity? My trailer has a grey and blackwater tank, running a diverter would take some righteous hacking the way things are lined up but as we renovate and rebuild the property it sounds like a useful idea for using shower water. I don't actually have running water in the trailer - don't really need to, as the house is some 20 feet away and most of my waking hours are spent there anyway. It's a trap-door head, water is not really needed as long as I do things the Israeli way. :) Keeping the toilet clean doesn't need more than a squirt bottle, a toilet brush, and a deeper pressure spray when I'm draining and rinsing.
Quoting 665. Qazulight:



While I don't think the PowerWall is a good fit for anywhere where electrical costs are under 15 cents per Kilowatt hour average, and it is pretty much useless for back up power unless you have a functioning solar system, (unlikely after a natural disaster) there is significant difference between the li-ion technology and the lead acid technology.

From my experience maintaining telecom battery plants and gensets, I have found that lead acid, even very expensive lead acid batteries are only good for about 300 charge discharge cycles. While a good set of round cell telecom battles can last for 40 years, it will probably never see. 100 full charge discharge cycles, as each battery plant is backed up by a genset with an automatic transfer switch.

The li-ion batteries can generally take between 1500 and 3000 charge discharge cycles before they are considered used up. Unlike the lead acid batteries though, li-ion have a shelf life. In other words it doesn't matter if you keep them fully charged and never cycle them, they will hold enough less charge to be considered used up in under 10 years.

This isn't to disparage the Power Wall, there are a lot of places in this world with high costs, high peak costs, and intermitant electricity. This is apparent from the fact that the entire Power Wall runs for the next year is sold out.

Cheers
Qazulight
Gah! I knew I shouldn't have checked here before I went to bed. Anyway, I should have clarified that the lead acid and Li-ion will have about the same charge capabilities in that neither one will ever get used to their full discharge state over time. The only way the Li-ion is a clear winner is if the batteries are used to down to their safe discharge level almost every day. That would happen on a completely off the grid setup but, for backup power, it's likely that the shelf life would be reached long before the batteries were fully discharged. Any place where space is at a premium or weight is an issue, like a boat or a plane, Li-ion batteries have already killed off lead acid, although AGM batteries still have a role. A 100 kW industrial Powerstation would suffice for power backup in a small to medium size industrial or commercial facility but, at about $235 a kilowatt, it's quite expensive compared to lead acid or even AGM batteries. As you said, these kinds of units are best suited to where there's only self generated power available or grid power is very expensive. The additional cost of a solar system, controller, and inverter has to be added into the Musk batteries regardless. In that it's no different than older technologies.

Unfortunately, the very parts of the world most in need of better primary or backup power will be the ones least able to afford this solution. When I was in India, one of the hotels I stayed at had a 500 kWH battery backup system. It consisted of about 250 huge 6 volt batteries of some undetermined age, but they were old. It worked because there was a staff of about six guys that did nothing but check water, balance the load, take hydrometer readings, and constantly clean connections. The switchboard was from colonial days. Obviously, the developed world can't afford to lavish labor on such an old (but still functional) system. I have the feeling more Powerwalls will be going to homes that also buy things like Apple watches than that hotel in India. :-)
Quoting 669. nonblanche:



Did that take a supplemental pump to defeat gravity? My trailer has a grey and blackwater tank, running a diverter would take some righteous hacking the way things are lined up but as we renovate and rebuild the property it sounds like a useful idea for using shower water. I don't actually have running water in the trailer - don't really need to, as the house is some 20 feet away and most of my waking hours are spent there anyway. It's a trap-door head, water is not really needed as long as I do things the Israeli way. :) Keeping the toilet clean doesn't need more than a squirt bottle, a toilet brush, and a deeper pressure spray when I'm draining and rinsing.
Yes, I forgot to mention that. I used a cheap Harbor Freight submersible pump to supply the small flush water tank on the bottom of the toilet. The toilet had a small motor in the tank that flushed the bowl. I think it cost about $15, and all I had to do was drop the pump in the bottom of the tank and run some clear vinyl aquarium type tubing to the toilet tank just before the existing fresh water feed line. I put a tee in the line with a backflow preventer on the gray water line and closed off the fresh water line. I probably didn't really need the backflow preventer, since that fresh water feed line terminated at the tank, but I thought it was a good idea just in case I screwed something up. I didn't want the fresh water tasting like dishwater 40 miles away from the nearest source of replacement water.

EDIT: I forgot, I had to also modify the ball float in the toilet so it turned on the 12 volt pump in the gray tank. I forget exactly how I did it but I don't remember it as complicated. I think it was a sealed micro switch that ran to the 12 volt line. Hey, it was 10 years ago. I have a hard enough time remembering where I put my coffee now. :-)
673. vis0

Quoting 630. washingtonian115:

So after the El nino is long and gone what then will be the subject?

(aniGIF)
Yes i left out snow ...SUE ME!

sincerely,
patrap
Quoting 666. nonblanche:



Almost all the water on our property gets used twice. Pig tank gets bucketed out to the Nanking cherries and green gage plums (I think only one of the two made it through the heat.) Duck pond tank in the orchard feeds and waters the fruit trees there. The kiddie pool for the front yard geese waters one part of the yard there. Grey water goes to the same spot. We use Ecover, I think it is, for the laundry, and that grey water goes out to a spot where eventually we'll get raspberries and another fruit tree to grow. Our outdoor solar shower drains into the orchard. (This time of year, there's no point in using anything but passive solar for hot water.) And, of course, our septic system has a drain field where we occasionally let the goats and steers in to eat down the growth.

It's kinda neat. We're pretty hardcore about it, and still manage to grow roses and hops around the hot tub gazebo.
You really think about water and how to use it when you live in the desert. I don't think most city people really understand what you can do when you don't have much water to being with, and what you have is expensive. I really had to think about it when my only source was what I hauled around with me, both in the RV and on the boat. We've gotten so used to the idea that any water that's not perfectly clear is poisonous that we don't even think about gray water being useful.
Quoting 639. Articuno:

so what happened to the storm around St Peters?
Not much, earlier one blew over semis on 61 near Pike & Lincoln county lines, no injuries or major damage to homes reported at this time. Cards-Cubs game delayed because of it being in area by 45 min., then start, only to be delayed by storm getting to metro an hour later. Rain from it took StL over its all time June record by around .8" (13" plus), and into 2nd place (for a month) overall, not sure how close to that yet. Didn't have much in my part of S C IL.

Edit: story just came up after I posted, that IL has also broke the June monthly rainfall record for avg across the state, almost 9" so far vs. slightly over 8" in 1902. Also said 4 of the 5 wettest Junes have been since 1998.
Quoting 673. vis0:



(aniGIF)
Yes i left out snow ...SUE ME!

sincerely,
patrap

How do you come up with all these ideas, Vis? Keep plugging the ml-d though. Someday you might be the new Galileo. :-)
Unusual use of QuikScat data:
www.spacedaily.com/reports/Beijing_Quadrupled_in_ Size_in_a_Decade_999.html
models.sleeping
decent.wind.shift...tw.c.v.islands
Quoting 676. sar2401:

How do you come up with all these ideas, Vis? Keep plugging the ml-d though. Someday you might be the new Galileo. :-)
I was thinking he was a Neils Bohr reincarnation, but realized Vis was probably had been born already...Bohr passed in 1962.
--
It is time for some excitment in the tropical atlantic. Tired of all this El Nino talk. If there is going to be one just wait for the declaration. This has been going on for almost one year.
Quoting 684. stoormfury:

It is time for some excitment in the tropical atlantic. Tired of all this El Nino talk. If there is going to be one just wait for the declaration. This has been going on for almost one year.



LOL where have you been ??? if your looking for some in too track in the tropical atlantic its not going too happen for the next few moths or longer

EL nino has all ready been declaration we are now at mod EL nino going on strong EL nino
Quoting 684. stoormfury:

It is time for some excitment in the tropical atlantic. Tired of all this El Nino talk. If there is going to be one just wait for the declaration. This has been going on for almost one year.


Umm there is an El Nino. It has been declared.
are you a soothesayer to know nothing will form in the next few months. were there not eL nino years when storms formed in the atlantic before the peak of season.?
Quoting 687. stoormfury:

are you a soothesayer to know nothing will form in the next few months. were there not eL nino years when storms formed in the atlantic before the peak of season.?



wind shear is way too strong out there and has really shut things down dos not matter if we are be for the peak of the season on or after if you dont have the right set up your not going too see nothing

if you want too track storm the W and E PAC will be the place too be this year
689. vis0
a WIsIT (What Is It...as in asking...WhatWhyWhereWhicheverWhenWx, no joke in 1980 at NYiT at 59th st north of NYC's Columbus Circle i tried to create a www page for what why weather but ran out of time as there was a 15 min per person usage limit of then the SUNY (State University of NY) compu'rs...take that Tim Berners-Lee...i wonder how many others tried "www" i fure several hundred before its official akornym)
CREDIT::
aviationweather.gov
D&T:: on aniGIF(1.14 MB)
SUBJECT:: glistening eye like swirl
TITLE:: Heres looking at U Niño (Bogart)
my NOTE:: This is where i would have luved to ask locals of their ancestors stories.
Put together those on the east side of the swirl stories of an elongated fetch or wind from SW to NW with a central bowing towards them in the clouds that their forefathers and foremothers saw. (Dakster stop saying,
one can only have one Mom, watching too much J. Springer)
Then those on the West side of this swirl would have their ancestors folklore of an elongated wind drawn by the clouds (gods in the clouds) of winds from the NE curving towards them then going away towards the SE. It might be
a serpent in the heavens type of folklore. If we could have kept records of these stories maybe it was that they observed a natural mixing that only happens just before a big wxtrend happens. But instead
the local people were looked down upon by many modern men and we lost much knowledge and have to start again from step one aka feeding GFS a few decades of knowledge instead of a few centuries. Sure the decades of
knowledge is solid scientific knowledge things observed through a more complete science as satellites, but GFS could have had 2 side by side running versions the "solid run" knowledge and the "ancestral run",
where knowledgeable "degreed" people would piece together old stories and try to fit them in to the GFS in a scientific manner. In this manner NEW things to modern man as to weather might not be such a surprise if
a n alert in the "ancestral run" GFS alerted us it matches an old
folklore.
image host
Per Levi's maps, Nino 3.4 is about to breach the +1.5C mark for the first time in this event, with 1.5C being the threshold for a "strong" El Nino. Obviously this doesn't mean we have an official strong event- I believe we're still in a weak El Nino based on standard three month averages- but we're certainly pushing higher, and we'll be in the moderate category soon.



Nino 1+2 is even warmer, it's been holding firm over +2C. This is a very impressive SST map.

OK Taz time is on my side. I will wait.
El Nino seasons usually produce several storms in the Atlantic during the peak period which is a function of lowest shear-highest SSTs in the late-August to mid-September period with the tendency to "shut down" the season earlier than usual by late-September due to rising shear. Just noting that July and early August might be quiet this year until some of the Cape Verde waves develop further down the road. Conditions, as usual in an El Nino year, are pretty hostile out there at the moment with nothing to develop; typical for late June regardless of the Enso phase.



Very scary article Link
Quoting 690. MAweatherboy1:

Per Levi's maps, Nino 3.4 is about to breach the 1.5C mark for the first time in this event, with 1.5C being the threshold for a "strong" El Nino. Obviously this doesn't mean we have an official strong event- I believe we're still in a weak El Nino based on standard three month averages- but we're certainly pushing higher, and we'll be in the moderate category soon.



Nino 1 2 is even warmer, it's been holding firm over 2C. This is a very impressive SST map.




we dont not have a weak EL nino we have been in moderate EL nino for a wile now and we are now in closeing in on borderline strong EL nino


all so this weeks # are in that the CPC will uesd

Nino1 2 2.6

Nino3 1.9

Nino3. 4 1.4

Nino4 1.1

this link will give you a early hit on what the CPC will uesd for there update for the week

Link
Quoting 683. PedleyCA:


The Wicked Forecast is back, yesterday was 96.5F forecast was 91F, go figure...

Is that this year's forecast? 4th July is on Saturday, not Monday...
Quoting 649. Webberweather53:

I hate it when my posts get so large they become extremely difficult-near impossible to edit, ugh...

I know you must put a lot of effort into compiling the data you present in your posts, and thank you for that. But part of your editing problems may be due to your writing style. Your sentences tend to be waaaay too long, dripping with so many dependent clauses it is difficult to understand the point you are trying to make. At times it seems like you are trying to cover all bases at once with your sentences, and thereby avoid committing to any one point of view. This writing style will not get you through college courses that require substantial writing and, rest assured, there is NO way to avoid these courses if you wish to obtain a degree. Fortunately, the solution is simple, far fewer commas and far more periods.
Good Morning Class! Warm and muggy in Sooo Cal the last few days.......hoping for some Thunderstorms the next few days. Hear that another large west wind burst may shoot another large Kelvin wave eastward to reinforce or further strengthen current El Nino? If so, bring it on!
Quoting 683. PedleyCA:


The Wicked Forecast is back, yesterday was 96.5F forecast was 91F, go figure...
Friday is outside day....LOL
699. vis0

Quoting 682. hydrus:

I was thinking he was a Neils Bohr reincarnation, but realized Vis was probably had been born already...Bohr passed in 1962.
see what ya did (comment #116 there) HYDRUS!

BTW for whatever reason i'm reading this blogbyte backwards so next pg i reply to if there are any Qs or references to me will be as to pg. #13) i prefer that my reincarnation somehow (exploding star during the 16 light-years of voyage) became entangled with Tesla's outgoing light DNA, what i wrote out of the blue i'm told by others incl. sis (she reads books like no one else, complete opposite of me, hates math luvs read) matches Tesla unproven theories, but uit could be just coincidence or nothing.
BACK TO WEATHER
Quoting 672. Gearsts:


)

Endless story
701. srada
Hello All!


95W is looking better and it has more rotation. It is also in a good environment with little to no wind shear and warm SST's.

94W can develop later once it moves away from wind shear.

Read more...
Quoting 690. MAweatherboy1:

Per Levi's maps, Nino 3.4 is about to breach the +1.5C mark for the first time in this event, with 1.5C being the threshold for a "strong" El Nino. Obviously this doesn't mean we have an official strong event- I believe we're still in a weak El Nino based on standard three month averages- but we're certainly pushing higher, and we'll be in the moderate category soon.



Nino 1+2 is even warmer, it's been holding firm over +2C. This is a very impressive SST map.


Has Webberweather seen this?
Quoting 700. CaribBoy:

)

Endless story


I feel your pain as always CaribBoy! Hoping for rain for you all.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 695. OviedoWatcher:


Is that this year's forecast? 4th July is on Saturday, not Monday...

Thanks for catching that, that is bogus for sure, I just watched the forecast and these are the numbers:
94/98/101/100/92/91/94 Oh so much better....
Quoting 670. sar2401:

Gah! I knew I shouldn't have checked here before I went to bed. Anyway, I should have clarified that the lead acid and Li-ion will have about the same charge capabilities in that neither one will ever get used to their full discharge state over time. The only way the Li-ion is a clear winner is if the batteries are used to down to their safe discharge level almost every day. That would happen on a completely off the grid setup but, for backup power, it's likely that the shelf life would be reached long before the batteries were fully discharged. Any place where space is at a premium or weight is an issue, like a boat or a plane, Li-ion batteries have already killed off lead acid, although AGM batteries still have a role. A 100 kW industrial Powerstation would suffice for power backup in a small to medium size industrial or commercial facility but, at about $235 a kilowatt, it's quite expensive compared to lead acid or even AGM batteries. As you said, these kinds of units are best suited to where there's only self generated power available or grid power is very expensive. The additional cost of a solar system, controller, and inverter has to be added into the Musk batteries regardless. In that it's no different than older technologies.

Unfortunately, the very parts of the world most in need of better primary or backup power will be the ones least able to afford this solution. When I was in India, one of the hotels I stayed at had a 500 kWH battery backup system. It consisted of about 250 huge 6 volt batteries of some undetermined age, but they were old. It worked because there was a staff of about six guys that did nothing but check water, balance the load, take hydrometer readings, and constantly clean connections. The switchboard was from colonial days. Obviously, the developed world can't afford to lavish labor on such an old (but still functional) system. I have the feeling more Powerwalls will be going to homes that also buy things like Apple watches than that hotel in India. :-)


For backup power where space and weight aren't at premium Lead Acid just crushes Li-ion on price/performance. However Lead Acid batteries must be kept charged or they will deteriorate fairly quickly (months) and they do not tolerate many deep cycles well so for continuous deep cycling, Li-Ion is better.
That said, the current powerwalls look like they have toy capacities.. not enough to power a house though they will power a fridge/freezer and lights well. I don't know how much current a furnace fan draws. If I didn't
have a woodburning stove that would be my number one concern.

As for backups I have none for house. Sump pumps have 12 volt backups. I keep saltwater bottles in my freezer so its contents will stay frozen longer. I can charge electronics like phones from batteries and run laptops with inverters. My Internet will die without power although I can power my router, I expect the external connection (FIOS) to drop within a day as its batteries die.

One of my (so far unmanifested) complaints is that the new fiber comms infrastructure we now have is not as robust as the old copper lines were so in the event of massive power failures we would also lose phone service.


708. vis0

Quoting 693. Guysgal:

Very scary article Link
hmm, let me see i began to have the majeekal-device ON longer in ~2000AD from 2 moths a year (not continuous, except for some years all those notes are gone) to over  that amount of time more than once a year and continuously for each 2 month period.
After 2009(late) its ON continuously and my theory as to that device -friction as to salt water vs. fresh water...could it be...nah probably some tectonic stuff with a smidgeon++ of the device.



(as i wrote in 2010 on my WxU blog now mostly gone, for those that think i make it up as i go i must've taken the Delorian back n forth ...uh back or is the last thing forth? and read it then posted before it happen...see webberweather53 what happens when you skip English curses..courses!!..ya dunt wanna be the next "vis0" du ya? (webberweather53 screaming w.a.a.a.a.a.a.a.h.h.h.h.h. !!!!!!!!!!!! in bkgnd, louder than seattleite),

As to the article,  i wonder if they take readouts near Puerto Rico> In 2010 the device(s) were in P.R., i know it read down to Bahamas but maybe the ship anchored in P.R. with their temperature instruments ON. (ml-d was in P.R .Jan~ 2nd-3rd/early Feb 2010 & May(2nd week) till ~June, but left a portable majeekal-device near Ponce,PR.on till early July 2010.


(apology to "islander101010", that dot per letter or word is "islander101010" thing.)
709. vis0

Quoting 708. vis0:


hmm, let me see i began to have the majeekal-device ON longer in ~2000AD from 2 moths a year (not continuous, except for some years all those notes are gone) to over  that amount of time more than once a year and continuously for each 2 month period.
After 2009(late) its ON continuously and my theory as to that device -friction as to salt water vs. fresh water...could it be...nah probably some tectonic stuff with a smidgeon++ of the device.



(as i wrote in 2010 on my WxU blog now mostly gone, for those that think i make it up as i go i must've taken the Delorian back n forth ...uh back or is the last thing forth? and read it then posted before it happen...see webberweather53 what happens when you skip English curses..courses!!..ya dunt wanna be the next "vis0" du ya? (webberweather53 screaming w.a.a.a.a.a.a.a.h.h.h.h.h. !!!!!!!!!!!! in bkgnd, louder than seattleite),

As to the article,  i wonder if they take readouts near Puerto Rico> In 2010 the device(s) were in P.R., i know it read down to Bahamas but maybe the ship anchored in P.R. with their temperature instruments ON. (ml-d was in P.R .Jan~ 2nd-3rd/early Feb 2010 & May(2nd week) till ~June, but left a portable majeekal-device near Ponce,PR.on till early July 2010.


(apology to "islander101010", that dot per letter or word is "islander101010" thing.)

footnote::
don't forget my images are on free sites they remove them due to certain limits,save the images you like before they go. Already gone are ~80 images i had on wxu pre 2011.
710. vis0

Quoting 703. Kenfa03:

Has Webberweather seen this?
Not picking on Kenfa03 or anyone in particular.
Remember Ladies & Gents share info  to learn, sure copyright the work you / your intelligence & imagination thought of first so you can get the needed acclaim that opens more doors then share.
But do not pick on STS nor webberweather53 (ya couldn't get a shorter name like "wewe" uh uh oops no...HOW 'BOUT "www" oh wait never mind, webberweather53 is just fine), sure banter on other members but don't get truly upset at the people (nor yourself) that are sharing ideas and opinions, as long as it's an up to date opinion even if copy n paste as CnP could be 'cause that person has a busy life and looks for articles that support their views and CnP from those sites. But getting truly angry, that hurts you as UNNECESSARY "upset-ness" leads to choatic energies in the body exacerbating problems your body already has and might stifle the members whom are sharing their views.  We do not want to lower the amount of people whom are communicating, we want more people to communicate, that eventually leads to wisdom.

And think of it as the minds of those that think, as being a way to transport humanity toward a higher level of consciousness (not new wave stuff that's ok but down home real deep thinking) . Imagine having a vehicle with many wheels (weebberweather, STS, SAR2401,labonbon, barbamz, Dr. Masters many more WxU members being the wheels versus a unicycle (one thinker only).  Its always better to ride on more than one wheel otherwise with just ONE wheel (one way of thinking) it becomes less comfortable ie pain in the a**...ever road a unicycle?...hmm i wonder if they ride unicycles in Seattleites "Tour de Leather".  oouchh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i BTW am the spare tire.
711. vis0



what more info on the REAL graphics go here (eurekalert.org) posted first by another member a few pgs back.


Interesting graphic their vis0.... Hairballs huh....

I like seeing the Atlantic shut down for cyclogensis, but how long will that last?
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