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Big Contrasts this Weekend: Roasting Out West, Soaking Back East

By: Bob Henson 3:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2015

The atmosphere over North America will slide back into a familiar pattern this weekend, as a powerful upper ridge and record heat take hold of the Pacific Northwest and western Canada while an unusually strong upper low for late June brings wet, cool conditions from the Ohio Valley through the mid-Atlantic into New England. It’s yet another variation on the warm-west/cool-east pattern that predominated through much of 2014 and early 2015.

Sizzling temps on tap for Pacific Northwest
While it’s been an unusually hot, muggy June across much of the Southeast, the burners will soon be going full blast out West. Models are consistent in building strong high pressure across the western states late this week into next week. The results will be scorching temperatures, especially in parts of eastern Washington and Oregon where warm, dry weather in recent weeks has left the ground already parched. Highs are projected to range from 100°F to 110°F over most of the next 4 to 6 days across a large area. Excessive heat watches are in effect for both Portland and Seattle. Here are some of WU’s forecast highs compared to monthly and all-time records. (For more, see the roundup by Jon Erdman at weather.com).

—Spokane, WA: Forecast high 102°F (Sunday); All-time record is 108 degrees on July 26, 1928 and Aug. 4, 1961
—Boise, ID: Forecast high 106°F (Sunday); All-time record is 111 degrees on July 19, 1960 and July 12, 1898
—Salt Lake City, UT: Forecast high 103°F (Monday); June record is 105 degrees on June 28-29, 2013
—Portland, OR: Forecast high 99°F (Saturday); June record high is 102 degrees on June 26, 2006
—Reno, NV: Forecast high 102°F (Friday and Saturday); June record is 104 degrees on June 16, 1940
—Missoula, MT: Forecast high 102°F (Sunday and Monday); June record high is 100 degrees on Jun. 29, 1937 and Jun. 13, 1918.

The heat may abate slightly by the middle of next week over the Pacific Northwest, but longer-range models suggest unusual warmth continuing across much of Canada. There are also hints that a significant heat wave could develop over parts of Europe toward the latter part of next week and beyond, as a highly amplified jet-stream pattern sets up there. The WU extended forecast brings Paris into the mid-90s Fahrenheit for several days, starting next Wednesday.



Figure 1. Temperatures will be 10°F to 30°F above average across large parts of the western United States and Canada, while much of the eastern U.S. will be unusually cool, according to the forecast for 0000 GMT Tuesday, June 30, produced by the 1800 GMT Wednesday run of the GFS model. Image credit: Climate Reanalyzer/University of Maine.


Fire risk increasing over western U.S., Alaska
By recent standards, it’s been a relatively quiet year thus far for wildland fire across the United States. The total amount of land affected by fire through Tuesday, June 23, stands at 885,842 acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That’s slightly above last year’s total through June 23, but well below each of the years from 2005 to 2013. The threat of wildfires should begin ramping up this weekend, though, with record heat and dry lightning storms over parts of California, Oregon, and Washington, as well as western Canada and Alaska. On Wednesday afternoon, more than 1,000 people had to flee a fast-growing 350-acre wildfire near Interstate 5 in Santa Clarita, CA, just north of the San Fernando Valley.



Figure 2. Smoke from the Washington Fire rises over the Sierra Nevada range south of Lake Tahoe as viewed from between Minden and Carson City, NV, on Monday, June 22. The wildfire had grown to over 20 square miles in hazardous and inaccessible terrain and was moving closer to structures, officials said. The Lake Tahoe area saw record-low amounts of snowpack this past winter. Image credit: Jim Grant/ Nevada Appeal via AP.


The greatest fire risk this weekend will be around the edge of the strong high pressure cell taking shape over the interior West. In and near the Cascades, enough moisture should be present for scattered thunderstorms with little rain but gusty winds and lightning. Combined with very hot weather and dry vegetation, this is among the most dangerous scenarios for wildfire risk. Lightning is the main cause of wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, according to Cliff Mass (University of Washington), who outlines the upcoming risk in detail in a blog post. “The bottom line is that with very dry conditions in place, multiple lightning-caused fires are quite possible. Fire folks need to get ready,” said Mass. The fire danger is also high to extreme over much of western British Columbia. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has not yet outlined any high-probability areas in its 3-8 day fire weather outlook, but the discussion issued Wednesday afternoon notes the possibility of an upgrade as the time period draws closer and confidence in model solutions increases.


Figure 3. Smoke cloaks the skies above Fort Wainwright, Alaska, near Fairbanks, on Wednesday. The smoke is a byproduct of several large wildland fires burning in central Alaska. Image credit: Stephanie Frank.


Most of the major U.S. fires this year to date have been in Alaska, where sporadic bursts of record heat during the spring and early summer have dried out vast stands of forest and brushland. Eleven fires affecting more than 1000 acres each were in progress as of Wednesday, with six of those exceeding 10,000 acres. Several factors are pushing Alaska toward longer and more intense fire seasons, as outlined by Climate Central in a report published Wednesday. The state is warming twice as quickly as the U.S. average--almost 3°F since the 1950s—and the average fire season has lengthened by roughly 40 percent in the last 60 years. Hot temperatures from May to July are strongly related to the frequency and severity of fire seasons in Alaska.

Large fires (more than 1000 acres) have grown far more common in the tundra-dominated Arctic portion of Alaska: such fires occurred in only three years from 1950 through 1969, but 33 such fires have struck the Alaskan Arctic since 2000. “We’re starting to see a tundra-fire regime emerging within the past few decades,” said Todd Sanford (CIRES), the lead author of the report. Earth’s largest tundra fire on record occurred in 2007, when about 250,000 acres (380 square miles) were scorched in the vicinity of the North Slope’s Anaktuvuk River. Such a lightning-triggered fire was once virtually impossible on the damp, chilly tundra. Lake sediments from the region around the Anaktuvuk fire showed no evidence of any other major fires in the last 5,000 years. Further south, wildfire is paving the way for an infusion of deciduous trees into the evergreen forests of the Alaskan interior. According to the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment, “More extensive and severe wildfires could shift the forests of Interior Alaska during this century from dominance by spruce to broadleaf trees for the first time in the past 4,000 to 6,000 years.”

A stormy week for Midwest, mid-Atlantic
A strong polar jet stream from the Corn Belt to the East Coast has been ferrying intense thunderstorms from west to east all week. Tuesday brought one of the biggest severe weather outbreaks of 2015, with severe storms sweeping through the mid-Atlantic corridor into New England. At the peak of the storms, some 770,000 people were without power, and widespread tree damage was reported.


Figure 4. A huge mesoscale convective complex (MCS) sprawls across the upper Midwest in this infrared satellite image taken at 8:15 a.m. CDT on Monday, June 22. The pink shadings over northern Iowa and southeast Minnesota correspond to the highest cloud tops associated with the most vigorous thunderstorms. Image credit: weather.com.



Figure 5. Tornado paths and strengths across northeast Illinois on Monday evening, June 22. Image credit: NWS Chicago.


One of the most powerful storms pushed through southeast Pennsylvania into southwest New Jersey, where power outages exceeded those from Superstorm Sandy and the 2012 derecho. Winds gusted to 85 mph in Gloucester County, NJ, and to 72 mph at Philadelphia International Airport, just a few weeks after outflow from a weak shower on April 22 brought 71-mph winds. The city has recorded gusts that strong only four other times in its weather history.

The day before the mid-Atlantic got slammed, Monday brought a preliminary total of 19 tornadoes, with 9 of them from a long-lived supercell that carved a path just southwest of Chicago (see Figure 5). A long-track, high-end EF3 twister that struck near Coal City was the strongest observed in the Chicago metro area since the deadly F5 Plainfield tornado of August 28, 1990. Another EF3 was reported near Marysville, Iowa. At weather.com, Jon Erdman produced this assortment of eye-popping imagery from Monday’s and Tuesday’s storms.


Figure 6. Gary Rink walks behind his home on Tuesday, June 23, in Coal City, Ill., after a tornado passed through the area Monday evening. The community of about 5,000 residents is located about 60 miles southwest of Chicago. Image credit: AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast.


Wet weekend on tap for Northeast
Though at least it’s arriving a week before the Fourth of July holiday, a rainy, cool storm system will likely put a big damper on outdoor activities this weekend from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic and New England. The west-to-east jet stream that’s powered storms all week will buckle into a pronounced upper-level low that will move slowly across the region. A double-barreled surface low may develop, similar to the configuration seen in many nor’easters. Cool temperatures should tilt the odds away from thunderstorms toward steady rain over the coastal cities, where 1” to 3” of rain possible. Heavier downpours could fall over the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians. With 9.57” reported this month through Wednesday, Baltimore has already landed the second-wettest June in its 145 years of weather history. The record of 9.95”, set in June 1972, could be eclipsed by an inch or more before the month is out.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. Projected three-day precipitation totals from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, for the period from 1200 GMT June 25 to June 30. Image credit: NWS/WPC.


Figure 8.. The setting sun illuminates mammatus clouds over Pottsgrove, PA, in the wake of Tuesday’s severe storms. Image credit: wunderphotographer Jerry1481.


Heat Extreme Extreme Weather Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. gunhilda:



And if it turns out, in ten or so years, that the planet just continues to heat up? What then? Will you say, "Oops! Too bad we lost ten years to mitigate a disaster that is wreaking havoc upon the entire planet?"

In ten or so years, what do you think your conscience will be telling you if it turns out the overwhelming majority of climate scientists were right and we needed to take action now? Will it matter to you that the Maldives are going under water? Will you care that countless species are going extinct? Will you mind that drought is causing starvation, and heat waves are killing people across the globe, and floods are washing away the homes of your neighbors? I wonder.

This isn't a disaster that any of us will avoid because it will affect us all in ways great and small, and our children even more. Time does not work in our favor if the science is correct and we sit on the fence and wait.

What a gamble, those ten or so years.


What do you suggest we do about it?
Quoting 490. washingtonian115:

I expect the drought to be erased in the north east after this weekend.


WU says 1.6 in for me.
NWS says between 1-2 in.
Hmmm. Uhh when is the MJO expected to cross the Atlantic??? That's a nice warm pool in the North Atlantic. Gulf seems to be warming back up.
Quoting 491. Neapolitan:

FWIW, the closest standard name color to what the map uses is "Razzmatazz".


:D

Who knew "razzmatazz" was a "standard" name color?
Quoting 501. Xulonn:

Would a good wet thunderstorm wash away all of the denialist b.s. here?
Afraid not. That would require a deluge of Noachian proportions...
Quoting 504. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hmmm. Uhh when is the MJO expected to cross the Atlantic??? That's a nice warm pool in the North Atlantic. Gulf seems to be warming back up.
It is expected to come early-mid July.
Quoting 502. tampabaymatt:



What do you suggest we do about it?


There is one solution, or we go the way of the observed trend.

Stop adding gigatonnes of CO2 daily to the biosphere.....by using fossil fuels.

They are not finite, they will run out.

And by then, we will continue to warm for a millennia.




Lot of rain on tap per the GFS for the Easternside of FL.

12Z GFS
Quoting 502. tampabaymatt:



What do you suggest we do about it?
you know that's a great question matt..so many here Talk a great deal on GW and how bad it could get...but...what are the people on this planet Doing about it?..nothing,so we wait this out and see what happens?...oh yeah a lot of talk going on about GW all around the world...but mother nature cares little about what humans say..and also all thru earth's history, the climate has changed..warm to cold, cold to warm and man..wasn't around talking about it..geez......we humans will just have to adjust to the changes or..go the way of the dinosaurs..its plain and simple..adjust or perish
Surprisingly the AMO is the strongest it's been all year. 2015 0.012 0.016 -0.109 -0.052 0.065 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990
-99.99
Warm pool in far North Atlantic, is the reason why it's stronger.
Sorry, I'm not engaging..have to find someone else to argue with..

I'm out and back to work.....have a good day all..



Quoting 508. Patrap:



There is one solution, or we go the way of the observed trend.

Stop adding gigatonnes of CO2 daily to the biosphere.....by using fossil fuels.

They are not finite, they will run out.

And by then, we will continue to warm for a millennia.







Oh, that's it? Well, I'm sure the world will respond in kind to this simple request.
this ELnino hype is getting boring tedious and repetitious. If the phenomenon were to come, let it come and then the issue will be at the front burner
Quoting 510. LargoFl:

you know that's a great question matt..so many here Talk a great deal on GW and how bad it could get...but...what are the people on this planet Doing about it?..nothing,so we wait this out and see what happens?...oh yeah a lot of talk going on about GW all around the world...but mother nature cares little about what humans say..and also all thru earth's history, the climate has changed..warm to cold, cold to warm and man..wasn't around talking about it..geez......we humans will just have to adjust to the changes or..go the way of the dinosaurs..its plain and simple..adjust or perish


Yeah. People on this blog can write until their fingers fall off about what's going to happen, but it really doesn't change a thing. Until there is some political will toward going away from fossil fuels, nothing significant is going to happen. And, it'll be tough to get any real political action when all of the politicians are in the pocket of one oil company or another.
Well,well,well. Couldn't stay quiet for long.img src="Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 261733 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of disturbed weather has formed about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move west-northwestward into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility in a day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 511. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Surprisingly the AMO is the strongest it's been all year. 2015 0.012 0.016 -0.109 -0.052 0.065 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990
-99.99
Warm pool in far North Atlantic, is the reason why it's stronger.

That's not saying much.
Quoting 513. tampabaymatt:



Oh, that's it? Well, I'm sure the world will respond in kind to this simple request.


Well jockamo, then you have the future to look forward too.

A warmer one, a wetter one.

Having built& maintained refineries and working offshore in the GOM, on the supply side as well, I easily know the PTB won't go that route.

But thanks for your careful insight.

Much appreciated yo'

Anything else you care to enlighten the class with ?
Expanding Earth Theory
Luminiferous Aether
Tabula Rasa
Phrenology
Einstein's Static Universe
Celestial Immutability
Emission Theory
Miasmatic Theory of Disease
Quoting 515. stoormfury:

this ELnino hype is getting boring tedious and repetitious. If the phenomenon were to come, let it come and then the issue will be at the front burner
weather blog
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Burke
This happens from time to time, when College Park Issues a TWO.
Quoting 519. Patrap:



Well jockamo, then you have the future to look forward too.

A warmer one, a wetter one.

Having built& maintained refineries and working offshore in the GOM, on the supply side as well, I easily know the PTB won't go that route.

But thanks for your careful insight.

Much appreciated yo'

Anything else you care to enlighten the class with ?


I actually didn't offer any insight. I'm asking a legitimate question. What do people on this blog suggest we do about this? Your one line answer of "stop using fossil fuels" was a really great suggestion. That should get things going.
LOL..so many angry people today..

Eat a snickers folks..

Ignorance is not a badge of Honor.

It's just ignorance.

: )
Quoting 502. tampabaymatt:


What do you suggest we do about it?
Follow the Pope's example. He is a head of state - the smallest country in the world, entirely within the city limits of Rome, Italy.

Pope Francis gathered the best minds available on the subject, and worked with them to define the reality of the situation.

Unfortunately, in many countries, the heads of state need the cooperation of their legislative bodies, who are often in bed with the FF industry and in love with the big bucks they get from the FF people. The U.S. seems to have the biggest problem in this area.

So what should YOU do about it? Vote for politicians who will face the issues related to AGW/CC and deal with them. And who will consult with the real experts.

And most importantly, don't expect commenters at a weather climate blog to provide the necessary answers. AGW/CC deniers often do this, and you wouldn't want to be associated with them, would you?
Quoting 515. stoormfury:

this ELnino hype is getting boring tedious and repetitious. If the phenomenon were to come, let it come and then the issue will be at the front burner


It's not hype. It's happening so yes it is on the front burner as this developing El-Nino with a very strong WWB is about to cause a Super Typhoon in the W-Pac as the GFS has been forecasting for days now.
It's pretty simple really....

Da Crawfish bisque, isba, delish, ahh, licous.

mmmm, mmm'
Quoting 526. Patrap:

Ignorance is not a badge of Honor.

It's just ignorance.

: )


And, you have proven my point yet again.
Quoting 526. Patrap:

Ignorance is not a badge of Honor.

It's just ignorance.

: )


Your post of attacking people needs to stop as all Matt did was ask a question. This is a forum to share opinions & questions not attack someone who you don't agree with.
Quoting 531. tampabaymatt:



And, you have proven my point yet again.


In your mind, that's fine with me.

I don't let anyone live rent free in my BHG.

The warming continues as does the addition of gigatonnes of CO2, 24/7/365.

Quoting 532. StormTrackerScott:



Your post of attacking people needs to stop as all Matt did was ask a question. This is a forum to share opinions & questions not attack someone who you don't agree with.


That's his MO Scott. Day in and day out.
535. etxwx
Quoting 493. Grothar:

That map looks green to me.

LOL. You stared at it too long and then looked away, didn't you?
BTW, did you know Michel Eugène Chevreul personally? :)
Easy to see the dust here.
Quoting 523. tampabaymatt:



I actually didn't offer any insight. I'm asking a legitimate question. What do people on this blog suggest we do about this? Your one line answer of "stop using fossil fuels" was a really great suggestion. That should get things going.
For one thing, "we" (notice I'm not saying "you") could stop electing people who deny that there is a problem and who are only interested in continuing BAU. You know, the people who say "oh look, it's snowing - therefore no AGW" or "look, I'm not a scientist so I can't form an opinion" (HA!) or "God won't let this happen."
# 532.

Sit down, you dint raise yer hand Mr.Irony.

I answered the question, try to keep up.

: )
Quoting 525. ncstorm:
LOL..so many angry people today..

Eat a snickers folks..

Actually, NC, anger is at the root of many denialists reactions.

Those who attempt to counter denialist blather often have made it through the anger stage, but still feel frustration.
Asking what can be done about AGW/CC is a fair question. Marginalizing those that ask the question is not fair, IMO.

Most everyone is interested in what can be done. Personally, I'd rather see some discussion about this than the endless back-and-forth about the basics of the well-established science, and what is clearly known to date about our warming world.
Quoting 532. StormTrackerScott:



Your post of attacking people needs to stop as all Matt did was ask a question. This is a forum to share opinions & questions not attack someone who you don't agree with.


Look at the bright side Scott. At least they are only dueling with words. Beats the crap out of the headlines.
I find the notion that talking about global warming online somehow precludes me from also taking action in my private life. What kind of logic is this?
Mods - I accidentally flagged #536 (Gearsts' post), when I meant to plus it. Love this touch screen, but the errors have increased :/
I challenge anyone on this blog to suggest one meaningful way we can do something about climate change. So far, the suggestions today have been to stop using fossil fuels and to elect politicians that will espouse the climate change battle. With regards to the first suggestion, I need electricity to live and gasoline to drive to work, amongst other places, so that’s not really feasible for anyone who wants to live some sort of meaningful life. With regards to the second suggestion, that sounds great and all, but in reality the political machine is a total cluster right now.

Me? I’m trying to do what I can. I am working with my neighbors on planting more trees in our community as part of our HOA fees, I’m keeping my AC higher than I used to, and I recently took a job that is only 5 miles from my home. Will any of this significantly impact anything? No. But, I would like to see this blog share more stories and ideas about what we can do instead of trying to prove that it’s happening to the same people every day.

Have a good rest of the day.
...pssssst'

Gee, Huh?

How to remove CO2 emissions.

About 11,700,000 results (0.44 seconds)

# 1. http://bravenewclimate.com/2008/08/29/top-10-ways -to-reduce-your-co2-emissions-footprint/


You may wanna get a Energy Drink and a few warm pop-tart's, as this could take a while.

Quoting 520. FrancisCrick:

Expanding Earth Theory
Luminiferous Aether
Tabula Rasa
Phrenology
Einstein's Static Universe
Celestial Immutability
Emission Theory
Miasmatic Theory of Disease

That's a great list of things that were widely believed until science came along and proved them wrong. You know, like creationism, or denial of climate change and/or man's part in it...
549. vis0
image hostanyone remember when in reply to STS saying 'cause of El yadda yadda (oh yeah forgot the tilde) yaddã we have a greater chance for TS to land onto the USofA, and i explained how at a certain point when wind sheer is so strong (as with present ENSO-e outputs) TS can be decoupled EARLY when coming off Africa and the LLL moseys along and if by chance meets with ULO (outflow) (SIT DOWN HYDRUS not saying UFO) there's a better chance of TD than if the TD stayed couple and became blown apart as it reached the mid Atlantic. In other words many TD have been decoupled not blown apart but decoupled (counted ~8) off Africa (wonder if that's helped in upwelling there) and a few of those lower level spins made it to the west (2 i state injected their Lower level spin to create TS Ana * Bill, even posted sat imagery showing what could be that. NO ya don't remember geesh.
Quoting 523. tampabaymatt:



I actually didn't offer any insight. I'm asking a legitimate question. What do people on this blog suggest we do about this? Your one line answer of "stop using fossil fuels" was a really great suggestion. That should get things going.

Whether it gets things going or not, it's the correct answer. Look, if I go into the doctor with chest pain and she tells me to get off the red meat or I'll die, what I should do is obvious. The fact that I don't want to, or that it will be unpleasant for me or difficult even is utterly irrelevant to what needs to be done. Solutions aren't usually pleasant.
This blog is a mess.........
Quoting 550. Misanthroptimist:


Whether it gets things going or not, it's the correct answer. Look, if I go into the doctor with chest pain and she tells me to get off the red meat or I'll die, what I should do is obvious. The fact that I don't want to, or that it will be unpleasant for me or difficult even is utterly irrelevant to what needs to be done. Solutions aren't usually pleasant.


So, you're comparing cutting red meat from your diet to cutting the use of fossil fuels from your life? Do you really think that's a sensible comparison?
Quoting 504. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hmmm. Uhh when is the MJO expected to cross the Atlantic??? That's a nice warm pool in the North Atlantic. Gulf seems to be warming back up.
When it does cross it's going run smack into a huge ridge, dry subsiding air, very little vertical instability, and SAL. Until those conditions change, that water can be a hundred degrees and it still won't matter. Once the water is over 80, it contributes almost no more energy to tropical storm formation.
From the Guardian:

California wildfire rages as firefighters scramble for water amid record drought
Week-old fire in southern California is one of 2,500 to flare up in state this year
Authorities struggle to contain blazes during ‘extreme to exceptional drought’

A Los Angeles city fire helicopter drops water on flames in Santa Clarita, California. Photograph: Rick McClure/AP

Peter Moskowitz
Friday 26 June 2015 10.19 EDT

A week-old wildfire in southern California picked up steam late on Thursday and early Friday as firefighters in the drought-stricken state struggled to find enough water to contain the blaze.

The fire has so far consumed about 40 square miles of the San Bernardino mountains, about 90 miles east of Los Angeles. It is one of several fires spreading along the west coast this week, and one of 2,500 fires to break out this year alone in California.
Full article

With a ll research, we can all find ways to offset our CO2 footprint.

Top 5 Green Myths
by Maria Trimarchi

1
Planting Trees Will Fix Global Warming |


Forests have a three-pronged effect on our climate: They cool the air through the process of evapotranspiration;
they reduce air pollutants (including CO2, a known greenhouse gas) through photosynthesis;
and their dark, dense leaves absorb sunlight that warms the planet.

Most people are familiar with the idea that trees and vegetation help to defend our planet against global warming. However, recent scientific studies show those benefits depend on where those trees are planted. Plant in the wrong part of the world and you may be wasting time and money.

Forests in the tropical belt around the equator benefit the planet. They absorb CO2­, in a process called carbon sequestering, which helps lower temperatures. It's the forests outside of the tropics that may have little or no impact on climate change.

The farther away from the equator forests are, the more likely they are to trap heat in their dense canopies, raising temperatures. This is known as the albedo effect. In a study conducted by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Carnegie Institution and Université Montpellier II, scientists found that forests in mid-to-high latitudes could increase temperatures by up to 10 degrees F (5.5 degrees C) in the next 100 years than if those forests were not there [source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory].

While supporting forestry projects remains a popular carbon offsetting option, it's important to be smart about which programs you back: Helping to mitigate the effects of tropical deforestation is a sound choice. And you can't go wrong when you keep your community green and beautiful by planting saplings around your neighborhood.

It's always admirable to choose to make your life greener -- especially when you do a little research beforehand. Each step we take as individuals, no matter how small, helps add up to a healthier planet.


Have invasive species caused any extinctions?
Introducing a new species into an ecosystem can have unforeseen and disastrous consequences for the species that already live there. Read more »
Quoting 532. StormTrackerScott:



Your post of attacking people needs to stop as all Matt did was ask a question. This is a forum to share opinions & questions not attack someone who you don't agree with.
I occasionally post an opinion without solid evidence, and there is nothing wrong with that - although those opinions are usually based on logic and critical thinking.

I would never attack someone because I don't "agree" with them - but I will dispute b.s. presented as fact.

Opinions that are based on false information, myths, and lies, do not have any real value, and I am glad that people debunk and rebut them.

This blog is much more than opinion blog. The WU website, its blogs and comments sections, were set up by a scientist - Dr. Masters - to be forums to discuss weather and climate science. Correct me if I am wrong, but I would guess that Drs. Masters and Rood, Bob Henson and all of the other featured bloggers - would prefer to see posts based on science and technology. Countering non-science-based falsehoods and misinformation is entirely appropriate.

Quoting 545. tampabaymatt:

I challenge anyone on this blog to suggest one meaningful way we can do something about climate change. So far, the suggestions today have been to stop using fossil fuels and to elect politicians that will espouse the climate change battle. With regards to the first suggestion, I need electricity to live and gasoline to drive to work, amongst other places, so that’s not really feasible for anyone who wants to live some sort of meaningful life. With regards to the second suggestion, that sounds great and all, but in reality the political machine is a total cluster right now.

Me? I’m trying to do what I can. I am working with my neighbors on planting more trees in our community as part of our HOA fees, I’m keeping my AC higher than I used to, and I recently took a job that is only 5 miles from my home. Will any of this significantly impact anything? No. But, I would like to see this blog share more stories and ideas about what we can do instead of trying to prove that it’s happening to the same people every day.

Have a good rest of the day.



Stop eating factory farm raised meats and produce, switch to local. Same with business, buy local whenver possible to creat less demand for cross country shipped products. Invest in refitting your home, windows, new efficient appliances, insulation, solar if possible. Supporting local government initiatives for leeds certified buildings, carbon neutral plans. Support the science, the fastest change comes from public opinion. Denounce science deniers ando revisionists, support fossil fuel divestment campaigns and use your wallet to force change. That is capitalist voting with your dollar.

These are only a few, but i would say do not dismiss ideas like the ones you mentioned because you find it to be too bothersome or the system a mess. This solution will require effort at all levels and the longer we wait, the more individual effort and uncomfortableness it will take.
Quoting 551. Drakoen:

This blog is a mess.........


Indeed, but my putting has been fantastic Drak..
Weather? no? nvm
560. txjac
Quoting 527. Xulonn:

Follow the Pope's example. He is a head of state - the smallest country in the world, entirely within the city limits of Rome, Italy.

Pope Francis gathered the best minds available on the subject, and worked with them to define the reality of the situation.

Unfortunately, in many countries, the heads of state need the cooperation of their legislative bodies, who are often in bed with the FF industry and in love with the big bucks they get from the FF people. The U.S. seems to have the biggest problem in this area.

So what should YOU do about it? Vote for politicians who will face the issues related to AGW/CC and deal with them. And who will consult with the real experts.

And most importantly, don't expect commenters at a weather climate blog to provide the necessary answers. AGW/CC deniers often do this, and you wouldn't want to be associated with them, would you?


I dont think that we should just limit conversation about FF industry
What about the large farm industry that dumps chemicals into our oceans ...one of the biggest CO2 cleaners (for lack of a better word), the destroying of our reefs ...stop allowing people to live right on the coastlines ...looks at what happens when ballast is dumped into "foreign" waters (Great lakes here). It introduces foreign creatures that destroy the ecosystems there (thinking of the bass around the bass islands). I shudder when I read about the algae blooms that appear in Lake Erie ...sewage and farm run off ...

Heck, even roundup is killing the environment and people

Lots of places to make advances
I actually didn't offer any insight. I'm asking a legitimate question. What do people on this blog suggest we do about this? Your one line answer of "stop using fossil fuels" was a really great suggestion. That should get things going.

ok matt...you know i like you...so i'm not going to attack you......but i am going to challenge you.....

when you ask what is being done about agw...or state that not much is being done...then you evidently aren't looking at what is happening in european countires in regard to solar and wind.....steps being made to lower emissions.....the electric car boom...etc....etc.....

you're probably not seeing what is happening here in america...did you know that here in el paso...ft bliss...the largest military base in the united states with about 40,000 active duty soldiers.....will be off the grid by 2017....yes......an installation bigger than many cities....not dependent on public utilities......

have you seen the wind fields popping up across the country.....have you looked at how solar is increasing.....

it's out there.....it;s easy to find......by your question...i'd guess...you have chosen not to look....and may i ask why?

once again...i have to wonder...are you of the crowd that says...it's hopeless...change will never come....and so.....since there's nothing i can do....then....i'm going to do nothing....i hope you're not a part of that group.....

the question i would hope you would ask......is...what can i do....as...the more people who ask that question...and then take baby steps....yed folks.....no one is asking anyone to run.......change will happen.....

another question is....will it have to be like charleston sc.....where 9 innocent lives were taken....for an image of hatred to be removed from capitol grounds....from retailers eliminating their sale.....or an act of the supreme court to make states give rights granted under the constitution to all regardless of sexual preference.....

maybe for once....we as a people....regardless of political bent....can start with baby steps...before we have to depend on big daddy to tell us what to do
Quoting 545. tampabaymatt:

With regards to the first suggestion, I need electricity to live and gasoline to drive to work, amongst other places, so that’s not really feasible for anyone who wants to live some sort of meaningful life..


Neither of those things happens to be true unless you are on a respirator or something in the first sentence. Otherwise, you need electricity to live as you (we) have. It is that lifestyle which is causing the problem. If we continue to live that lifestyle...well, in a generation or two (maximum) it is highly likely that the climate will make that lifestyle impossible for virtually anyone. IOW, we can solve the problem ourselves -hopefully in a somewhat orderly and palatable fashion- or we can roll the dice and see how Nature decides to work out the problem for us.

We need not outlaw FFs tomorrow. However, we do need to start cutting their use now (yesterday, really). If we can cut our emissions by just half it can buy us time since about half of our CO2 emissions are absorbed by Earth. But it is time to admit that that is what needs to be done and time to decide how to do that with the least damage to our society and species. If we can work convenience in there, too, all the better.

But first things first.
Half of Europe’s electricity set to be from renewables by 2030
Leaked EU paper predicts fast renewables growth to around double current levels if countries meet climate objectives

Renewable energy to grow from current levels of providing around a quarter of Europe’s energy to supplying half, leaked paper says. Photograph: Alamy

Arthur Neslan Brussels
Friday 26 June 2015 06.54 EDT

Europe will likely get more than half of its electricity from renewable sources by the end of the next decade if EU countries meet their climate pledges, according to a draft commission paper.

A planned overhaul of the continent’s electricity grids will now need to be sped up, says the leaked text, seen by the Guardian.
Full article
Quoting 551. Drakoen:

This blog is a mess.........


i agreed 100% on that the mods need too come in and really clean this place up some

this is why i dont post march in here any more i this lurk now
566. txjac
Quoting 555. Patrap:


With a ll research, we can all find ways to offset our CO2 footprint.

Top 5 Green Myths
by Maria Trimarchi

1
Planting Trees Will Fix Global Warming |


Forests have a three-pronged effect on our climate: They cool the air through the process of evapotranspiration;
they reduce air pollutants (including CO2, a known greenhouse gas) through photosynthesis;
and their dark, dense leaves absorb sunlight that warms the planet.

Most people are familiar with the idea that trees and vegetation help to defend our planet against global warming. However, recent scientific studies show those benefits depend on where those trees are planted. Plant in the wrong part of the world and you may be wasting time and money.

Forests in the tropical belt around the equator benefit the planet. They absorb CO2­, in a process called carbon sequestering, which helps lower temperatures. It's the forests outside of the tropics that may have little or no impact on climate change.

The farther away from the equator forests are, the more likely they are to trap heat in their dense canopies, raising temperatures. This is known as the albedo effect. In a study conducted by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Carnegie Institution and Université Montpellier II, scientists found that forests in mid-to-high latitudes could increase temperatures by up to 10 degrees F (5.5 degrees C) in the next 100 years than if those forests were not there [source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory].

While supporting forestry projects remains a popular carbon offsetting option, it's important to be smart about which programs you back: Helping to mitigate the effects of tropical deforestation is a sound choice. And you can't go wrong when you keep your community green and beautiful by planting saplings around your neighborhood.

It's always admirable to choose to make your life greener -- especially when you do a little research beforehand. Each step we take as individuals, no matter how small, helps add up to a healthier planet.


Have invasive species caused any extinctions?
Introducing a new species into an ecosystem can have unforeseen and disastrous consequences for the species that already live there. Read more »


Read up on the Bass around the Bass Islands in Lake Erie and invasive species ...catch and release for most of the fishing season ...and that is discouraged as it takes the males away from protecting the baby fishes
Quoting 543. Naga5000:

I find the notion that talking about global warming online somehow precludes me from also taking action in my private life. What kind of logic is this?


I find that goes for myself as well. I could take a bus, but I drive. I could eat more vegetation based food, but I eat meat. I could recycle better. I could use less water or turn up my thermostat in the summer, but I don't. I find that whatever logic tells me, I am stuck in the old wasteful mode. I can talk a good line, but I don't seem to walk one. I guess it's an addiction that is hard to shake.
Quoting 561. ricderr:

I actually didn't offer any insight. I'm asking a legitimate question. What do people on this blog suggest we do about this? Your one line answer of "stop using fossil fuels" was a really great suggestion. That should get things going.

ok matt...you know i like you...so i'm not going to attack you......but i am going to challenge you.....

when you ask what is being done about agw...or state that not much is being done...then you evidently aren't looking at what is happening in european countires in regard to solar and wind.....steps being made to lower emissions.....the electric car boom...etc....etc.....

you're probably not seeing what is happening here in america...did you know that here in el paso...ft bliss...the largest military base in the united states with about 40,000 active duty soldiers.....will be off the grid by 2017....yes......an installation bigger than many cities....not dependent on public utilities......

have you seen the wind fields popping up across the country.....have you looked at how solar is increasing.....

it's out there.....it;s easy to find......by your question...i'd guess...you have chosen not to look....and may i ask why?

once again...i have to wonder...are you of the crowd that says...it's hopeless...change will never come....and so.....since there's nothing i can do....then....i'm going to do nothing....i hope you're not a part of that group.....

the question i would hope you would ask......is...what can i do....as...the more people who ask that question...and then take baby steps....yed folks.....no one is asking anyone to run.......change will happen.....

another question is....will it have to be like charleston sc.....where 9 innocent lives were taken....for an image of hatred to be removed from capitol grounds....from retailers eliminating their sale.....or an act of the supreme court to make states give rights granted under the constitution to all regardless of sexual preference.....

maybe for once....we as a people....regardless of political bent....can start with baby steps...before we have to depend on big daddy to tell us what to do


I did not state that nothing was being done. I’m asking the blog for ideas on how ordinary people like us can accomplish something to combat climate change. I'm also not sure how you got the idea that I have done no research on this topic, because that is not the case.
Another 2005 in the making?!


;) <--------
Rain where needed, a novel thang.



Quoting 567. Grothar:


Quoting 552. tampabaymatt:



So, you're comparing cutting red meat from your diet to cutting the use of fossil fuels from your life? Do you really think that's a sensible comparison?

I do indeed. They are both things that are "needed" but simultaneously doing great harm. They can both be cut or eliminated with few ill effects. They are both recommended by experts in the field.
Quoting 545. tampabaymatt:

I challenge anyone on this blog to suggest one meaningful way we can do something about climate change. So far, the suggestions today have been to stop using fossil fuels and to elect politicians that will espouse the climate change battle. With regards to the first suggestion, I need electricity to live and gasoline to drive to work, amongst other places, so that’s not really feasible for anyone who wants to live some sort of meaningful life. With regards to the second suggestion, that sounds great and all, but in reality the political machine is a total cluster right now.

Me? I’m trying to do what I can. I am working with my neighbors on planting more trees in our community as part of our HOA fees, I’m keeping my AC higher than I used to, and I recently took a job that is only 5 miles from my home. Will any of this significantly impact anything? No. But, I would like to see this blog share more stories and ideas about what we can do instead of trying to prove that it’s happening to the same people every day.

Have a good rest of the day.

I'm coming in kind of late. Sounds like a little "tension" on the blog today. However, there are things we all can do that aren't tremendously painful and, in the aggregate, can reduce fossil fuel consumption. Change all your lights to LED. Insulate your house better if you can. When things like your fridge or A/C unit go bad, get a new one that's the most energy efficient you can afford. Make sure you get a tune up and don't haul around a lot of junk in your car. If you've got more than one car, see if you can figure out a way to get rid of one. Take public transit more often if it's available. Use the timer function on most TV's so it shuts off after you go to bed and doesn't run all night. Get a digital setback thermostat if you don't have one and keep the house warmer in summer and cooler in winter when no one's home. It will pay for itself in a few months. Really, there are a lot of seemingly small things we all can do that will help a lot more than waiting for some commission to come up with the big plan.
Quoting 556. Xulonn:

I occasionally post an opinion without solid evidence, and there is nothing wrong with that - although those opinions are usually based on logic and critical thinking.

I would never attack someone because I don't "agree" with them - but I will dispute b.s. presented as fact.

Opinions that are based on false information, myths, and lies, do not have any real value, and I am glad that people debunk and rebut them.

This blog is much more than opinion blog. The WU website, its blogs and comments sections, were set by a scientist - Dr. Masters - to be forums to discuss weather and climate science. Correct me if I am wrong, but I would guess that Drs. Masters and Rood, Bob Henson and all of the other featured bloggers - would prefer to see posts based on science and technology. Countering non-science-based falsehoods and misinformation is entirely appropriate.




Yeah but I'm sure they don't want to see members being called fools for simply asking a question. IMO Patrap pushes the envelope too many times with people on here and it needs to stop. Disagreeing is fine BUT calling names out @ people is uncalled for. PERIOD!
For the next 2 days.
My 2000 Softail Deuce is Carburated and not EFI, so there's dat.

: )
Quoting 574. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah but I'm sure they don't want to see members being called fools for simply asking a question. IMO Patrap pushes the envelope too many times with people on here and it needs to stop. Disagreeing is fine BUT calling names out @ people is uncalled for. PERIOD!


Matt is a smart Guy.

I hold Him in High regards, as you and any other member.

But when my answer to a straight question is ridiculed when its the best suggestion, I will retort in kind.

I don't seek validation,....
Quoting 570. Gearsts:

Another 2005 in the making?!


;)


Say it ain't so. My Science Center is still recovering from the salt water donated by Katrina. We don't need another donation!
chocking on dust down here...I can only imagine how it is in the eastern carib.
We had a nice break for two days and could actually see blue sky.
As long as that high in the Atlantic keeps extending its reach to down here you literally cant get anything to pop up let alone the dust its depressing.....
when will we get our next trough?!
Quoting 568. JustDucky251:



I find that goes for myself as well. I could take a bus, but I drive. I could eat more vegetation based food, but I eat meat. I could recycle better. I could use less water or turn up my thermostat in the summer, but I don't. I find that whatever logic tells me, I am stuck in the old wasteful mode. I can talk a good line, but I don't seem to walk one. I guess it's an addiction that is hard to shake.


I find that my boundary is always economics. I do as much as I can without putting myself in financial jeopardy.
Quoting 577. Grothar:




One can almost see Pig Pen Dancing near the Azores

models.nothing...all.clear.july.4th???
Quoting 581. Naga5000:



I find that my boundary is always economics. I do as much as I can without putting myself in financial jeopardy.


I know. When surviving paycheck to paycheck some things that should be done get left out unfortunately.
Quoting 578. Patrap:



Matt is a smart Guy.

I hold Him in High regards, as you and any other member.

But when my answer to a straight question is ridiculed when its the best suggestion, I will retort in kind.

I dont seek valiadt



Pat, I like you but sometimes you take it a little too far. Matt is smart and i don't think he was trying to come at in any way as he was just asking a question.
And if you go back and look, all I did was answer Scott.

So dont be pedantic, OK.

It'z not gonna ruin my week,

It's been a fine one and Im looking forward to a fine weekend.

Hope you do as well.




Quoting 580. 19N81W:

chocking on dust down here...I can only imagine how it is in the eastern carib.
We had a nice break for two days and could actually see blue sky.
As long as that high in the Atlantic keeps extending its reach to down here you literally cant get anything to pop up let alone the dust its depressing.....
when will we get our next trough?!


A strong MJO coupled with low pressures across the C & E-Pac is causing Tradewinds to speed up across the Atlantic & Caribbean and that is why so much dust is getting pull off Africa. Also with models converging on a 2.3C or 2.4C El-Nino expect a significant lack of convection across the Caribbean thru the MDR region the rest of this Summer.
Quoting 551. Drakoen:
This blog is a mess...
Don't you just hate slow hurricane seasons?
Quoting 587. StormTrackerScott:



A strong MJO coupled with low pressures across the C & E-Pac is causing Tradewinds to speed up across the Atlantic & Caribbean and that is why so much dust is getting pull off Africa. Also with models converging on a 2.3C or 2.4C El-Nino expect a significant lack of convection across the Caribbean thru the MDR region the rest of this Summer.


Please pardon the ignorance, but why would a 2.3C El Nino affect the convection in the Caribbean? I'm probably missing a lot, but it's clear as mud to me.
Quoting 589. Xulonn:

Don't you just hate slow hurricane seasons?


What we miss during Hurricane Season we will get back come Fall/Winter with Tornadoes across the SE US especially FL. Could be heading for a record breaking El-Nino the next few months. We are a little behind 1997 now but this next WWB coming across is the real deal.
I did not state that nothing was being done. I’m asking the blog for ideas on how ordinary people like us can accomplish something to combat climate change. I'm also not sure how you got the idea that I have done no research on this topic, because that is not the case.

now while i'm not sure you conveyed as concise a message in your earlier comments.....i take it this is what you meant.......

and by this....i think is a great question........and we'll start with.....

lower and rainse your thermostat 2 degrees summer and winter.....

you'll cut one of your largest energy usages by almost 20 percent

personally....i do a bit more.....my ac is at 75...when we're home...and at 77 when we're not.....my wife....who couldn't live if it was above 72.....grabs the covers now when the ac kicks in at night...

give you an idea......our electric bill for june used to range from about 320 to 370....changing our temp setting...and adding ridge vent to the roof.......the pat two years were at 215....and 225.....and the 225 bucks....we had 20 days over 100 degrees that june...not sure what this year will be...but i would expect about the same or lower
Quoting 590. JustDucky251:



Please pardon the ignorance, but why would a 2.3C El Nino affect the convection in the Caribbean? I'm probably missing a lot, but it's clear as mud to me.


A Stronger El-Nino causes increased Trades across the Caribbean down at the surface with high westerly shear aloft. Not a good combo for convection to get going.
Quoting 563. LAbonbon:

Half of Europe’s electricity set to be from renewables by 2030
Leaked EU paper predicts fast renewables growth to around double current levels if countries meet climate objectives

Renewable energy to grow from current levels of providing around a quarter of Europe’s energy to supplying half, leaked paper says. Photograph: Alamy

Arthur Neslan Brussels
Friday 26 June 2015 06.54 EDT

Europe will likely get more than half of its electricity from renewable sources by the end of the next decade if EU countries meet their climate pledges, according to a draft commission paper.

A planned overhaul of the continent’s electricity grids will now need to be sped up, says the leaked text, seen by the Guardian.
Full article
You wanna see solar? This is really solar -



Ivanpah Solar Facility. 377 megawatts, the biggest in the world. Located in the Mojave Desert at the border of California and Nevada. Enough power for a city of 140,000, and that will increase as solar becomes more efficient. And, this is just the beginning. We have the largest deserts in the developed world that are easily accessible for solar development. Ivanpah is just one solar plant either online or planned. It will take rerouting and upgrading transmission lines, but the possibility is there for producing tens of millions of megawatts of power. By 2030, we will be producing far more energy from renewables than Europe, or anywhere else. All the traditional power producers are on board for these changes. They realize business as usual will eventually mean no business. The future for the least carbon intensive production of electric power is brighter than it's ever been.
Quoting 594. StormTrackerScott:



A Stronger El-Nino causes increased Trades across the Caribbean down at the surface with high westerly shear aloft. Not a good combo for convection to get going.


Thank you.
To JustDucky - Scott was referring to the wind shear created with El Nino in the East PAcific. More convection that initiates in the East Pacific creates a whole lot of wind shear in the MDR of the Atlantic and the Cribbean. MDR- main development region of tropical cyclones
Quoting 543. Naga5000:

I find the notion that talking about global warming online somehow precludes me from also taking action in my private life. What kind of logic is this?


Quoting 598. WeatherConvoy:

To JustDucky - Scott was referring to the wind shear created with El Nino in the East PAcific. More convection that initiates in the East Pacific creates a whole lot of wind shear in the MDR of the Atlantic and the Cribbean. MDR- main development region of tropical cyclones


Thank you, as well.

Quoting 551. Drakoen:

This blog is a mess.........
Moderator, please pass this on to Dr. Masters. The GW stuff is really bothersome for me and probably others.  It does not matter where you come down on this matter; debating it is not what this forum was/should be about. While climate effects the weather over time, I don't think climate issues/theories/realities are short to intermediate weather matters. Last time I looked the site was called the WEATHER Underground, not the CLIMATE Underground.  Can we (Dr. Masters):
- Start another blog where the GW, for and against, crowd can do their stuff without annoying the rest of us? Dr. Masters and other Scientists could debate the matter, blog about it, and maybe sell the website to TWC  in the future. No sarcasm meant.
- Can Dr. Masters encourage people to stay on point of weather and leave the GW stuff for other sites?
- Develop an automated way to block GW oriented posts
- Or can Dr. Masters can make clear that the intent of this blog is to debate GW, and I will go find another blog that deals with current weather, future weather, and tropical activity...
Finally, I want to thank the mods who help make this blog happen.  And thank all the contributors who talk about the weather, you keep me ahead of the crowd on what is going to happen. 


To Storm tracker Scott - check messages I just sent one. Lets do lunch soon talk climate, weather etc
There are so many bad and worrisome news in my part of the world today (and in western Europe a serious and probably long lasting heatwave should build up the next week to boot while the impacts of the last drought in many parts of Germany aren't fixed yet) - here at least some good news ;-)

Sweden's wine industry is maturing nicely - thanks to climate change
Milder summers mean Europe's most northerly winegrowers can challenge rival producers, but the Swedish alcohol laws are just one of many obstacles they face
The Guardian, David Crouch in Skane, Friday 26 June 2015 16.35 BST

Quoting 574. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah but I'm sure they don't want to see members being called fools for simply asking a question. IMO Patrap pushes the envelope too many times with people on here and it needs to stop. Disagreeing is fine BUT calling names out @ people is uncalled for. PERIOD!
Don't know who you are, but you are quickly becoming my favorite contributor.  THANK YOU
To JustDucky - Scott was referring to the wind shear created with El Nino in the East PAcific. More convection that initiates in the East Pacific creates a whole lot of wind shear in the MDR of the Atlantic and the Cribbean. MDR- main development region of tropical cyclones

are we sure it's shear...and are we sure enso impacts the sal?????

take a look at this......


[5] It has been pointed out before that the variability of mineral dust in the Caribbean region is a result of many processes, including variations in dust emission in the source regions, changes in the transport paths, and changes in the amount of dust removed during transport by wet deposition [Prospero and Lamb, 2003]. Previous attempts to explain the variability and trends in intercontinental transport of Saharan mineral dust have focused on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) [Chiapello et al., 2005; Moulin et al., 1997] or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Prospero and Nees, 1986]. The NAO has been shown to influence precipitation and wind patterns in regions of the Atlantic controlling dust transport [Ginoux et al., 2004], especially in winter [Chiapello and Moulin, 2002]. ENSO affects precipitation over the Sahel [Janicot et al., 1996; Evan et al., 2006] and via a series of complex interacting processes affects emission and transport of dust from the source region [Prospero and Nees, 1986]. However, the NAO and ENSO do not explain the variability of mineral dust over the Caribbean region during summer, as we will show in section 3.3 of our analysis.
Instead of going through all that trouble, I have a far easier solution. How about you stop reading the blog posts about climate change? That way everyone is happy. Climate change is an important topic, probably the most important topic of our time, you can choose to stick your head in the sand and ignore it if you like. The information that Dr. Masters is putting out is great information that needs to be heard.

Quoting 601. leofarnsworth:


Moderator, please pass this on to Dr. Masters. The GW stuff is really bothersome for me and probably others.  It does not matter where you come down on this matter; debating it is not what this forum was/should be about. While climate effects the weather over time, I don't think climate issues/theories/realities are short to intermediate weather matters. Last time I looked the site was called the WEATHER Underground, not the CLIMATE Underground.  Can we (Dr. Masters):
- Start another blog where the GW, for and against, crowd can do their stuff without annoying the rest of us? Dr. Masters and other Scientists could debate the matter, blog about it, and maybe sell the website to TWC  in the future. No sarcasm meant.
- Can Dr. Masters encourage people to stay on point of weather and leave the GW stuff for other sites?
- Develop an automated way to block GW oriented posts
- Or can Dr. Masters can make clear that the intent of this blog is to debate GW, and I will go find another blog that deals with current weather, future weather, and tropical activity...
Finally, I want to thank the mods who help make this blog happen.  And thank all the contributors who talk about the weather, you keep me ahead of the crowd on what is going to happen. 



Quoting 605. ricderr:

To JustDucky - Scott was referring to the wind shear created with El Nino in the East PAcific. More convection that initiates in the East Pacific creates a whole lot of wind shear in the MDR of the Atlantic and the Cribbean. MDR- main development region of tropical cyclones

are we sure it's shear...and are we sure enso impacts the sal?????

take a look at this......


[5] It has been pointed out before that the variability of mineral dust in the Caribbean region is a result of many processes, including variations in dust emission in the source regions, changes in the transport paths, and changes in the amount of dust removed during transport by wet deposition [Prospero and Lamb, 2003]. Previous attempts to explain the variability and trends in intercontinental transport of Saharan mineral dust have focused on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) [Chiapello et al., 2005; Moulin et al., 1997] or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Prospero and Nees, 1986]. The NAO has been shown to influence precipitation and wind patterns in regions of the Atlantic controlling dust transport [Ginoux et al., 2004], especially in winter [Chiapello and Moulin, 2002]. ENSO affects precipitation over the Sahel [Janicot et al., 1996; Evan et al., 2006] and via a series of complex interacting processes affects emission and transport of dust from the source region [Prospero and Nees, 1986]. However, the NAO and ENSO do not explain the variability of mineral dust over the Caribbean region during summer, as we will show in section 3.3 of our analysis.



Thank you Very Much. With all the info I might be able to speak somewhat intelligently at some point. Thanks again.
here's a little tidbit about saharan dust....so maybe....we might want to look at last years precip anomalies for africa....rather than current conditions.......


[31] A possible explanation may be that a certain amount of dust is always exported from the Saharan desert and reaches the Caribbean regardless of the precipitation in the Sahel. On the other hand, for intense dust events to occur, low precipitation in the Sahel in the preceding year is required
Quoting 601. leofarnsworth:


Moderator, please pass this on to Dr. Masters. The GW stuff is really bothersome for me and probably others. %uFFFDIt does not matter where you come down on this matter; debating it is not what this forum was/should be about. While climate effects the weather over time, I don't think climate issues/theories/realities are short to intermediate weather matters. Last time I looked the site was called the WEATHER%uFFFDUnderground, not the CLIMATE Underground.%uFFFD%uFFFDCan we (Dr. Masters):
- Start another blog where the GW, for and against, crowd can do their stuff without annoying the rest of us? Dr. Masters and other Scientists could debate the matter, blog about it, and maybe sell the website to TWC %uFFFDin the future. No sarcasm meant.
- Can Dr. Masters encourage people to stay on point of weather and leave the GW stuff for other sites?
- Develop an automated way to block GW oriented posts
- Or can Dr. Masters can make clear that the intent of this blog is to debate GW, and I will go find another blog that deals with current weather, future weather, and tropical activity...
Finally, I want to thank the mods who help make this blog happen. %uFFFDAnd thank all the contributors who talk about the weather, you keep me ahead of the crowd on what is going to happen.%uFFFD





Under this post, you will see a couple links, the one on the left reads"Quote" the one on the right reads "Ignore User". The one on the right will be very helpful, you can customize your experience here so you don't need to be bothered by things like facts, and science. We wouldn't want those to make you feel uncomfortable. I for one, am quite happy another person has proudly stated their opposition to learning more about the climate, it makes it easier when people self identify.

Also, can we please just sit back for a second an enjoy the irony of a post about climate change complaining about posts on climate change? Deep breath, take it in.
Just waiting for the next big one in the Atlantic or the next meaningful weather event :).
Please, can we be civil? Climate change will affect weather at some point, but since climate change does not happen overnight, today's weather is not impacted by future climate change. We all have varying views on the urgency of these issues, but let us all agree to disagree peacefully and without rancor?

Quoting 608. ricderr:

here's a little tidbit about saharan dust....so maybe....we might want to look at last years precip anomalies for africa....rather than current conditions.......


[31] A possible explanation may be that a certain amount of dust is always exported from the Saharan desert and reaches the Caribbean regardless of the precipitation in the Sahel. On the other hand, for intense dust events to occur, low precipitation in the Sahel in the preceding year is required

Where's the easiest place to find that info (precip in the Sahel)?
Quoting 611. JustDucky251:

Please, can we be civil? Climate change will affect weather at some point, but since climate change does not happen overnight, today's weather is not impacted by future climate change. We all have varying views on the urgency of these issues, but let us all agree to disagree peacefully and without rancor?




The climate has already changed, a warmer atmosphere has had an impact. The only question is how much for each event, not if. Melting sea and glacial ice and higher land and ocean temperatures all change how heat is transported throughout the system. They are explicitly intertwined. Any future changes are in the future, but that doesn't mean things are not changing right now and effecting present weather, they most certainly are.
Quoting 575. Climate175:

For the next 2 days.


No, it's rather for the whole 2015 season :(
Quoting 601. leofarnsworth:


Moderator, please pass this on to Dr. Masters. The GW stuff is really bothersome for me and probably others.  It does not matter where you come down on this matter; debating it is not what this forum was/should be about. While climate effects the weather over time, I don't think climate issues/theories/realities are short to intermediate weather matters. Last time I looked the site was called the WEATHER Underground, not the CLIMATE Underground.  Can we (Dr. Masters):
- Start another blog where the GW, for and against, crowd can do their stuff without annoying the rest of us? Dr. Masters and other Scientists could debate the matter, blog about it, and maybe sell the website to TWC  in the future. No sarcasm meant.
- Can Dr. Masters encourage people to stay on point of weather and leave the GW stuff for other sites?
- Develop an automated way to block GW oriented posts
- Or can Dr. Masters can make clear that the intent of this blog is to debate GW, and I will go find another blog that deals with current weather, future weather, and tropical activity...
Finally, I want to thank the mods who help make this blog happen.  And thank all the contributors who talk about the weather, you keep me ahead of the crowd on what is going to happen. 



I've never quite understood those who would waltz into this forum attached to Dr. Masters' blog and suggest/request/insist that he no longer write about what he likes to write about. To me, that's like being invited as a guest to a large cocktail party, entering the massive room where the party's happening and dozens of conversations are going on, climbing up on a table, shouting for everyone to be quiet, then insisting that everybody henceforth discuss only that which interests you--and also, while you're at it, commanding the band in the corner to play only songs from your personal songlist.

That, thankfully, is not how things work.

Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson write on a large variety of weather- and climate-related issues. I--and, obviously, hundreds of others--like it that way, and hope it never changes. After all, AGW is the single defining issue of our time, and is set to disrupt modern civilization in a way nothing has before. With that in mind, wouldn't talking about nothing but the impending El Nino, SAL outbreaks, and showing repeated radar loops of Florida's east coast seem a little, I dunno, boring?
Quoting 516. tampabaymatt:



Yeah. People on this blog can write until their fingers fall off about what's going to happen, but it really doesn't change a thing. Until there is some political will toward going away from fossil fuels, nothing significant is going to happen. And, it'll be tough to get any real political action when all of the politicians are in the pocket of one oil company or another.
I do notice some companies are making a go at all electric cars, I don't know if that will catch on or not,but its a start...then I start asking myself..how is electricity made?..fossil fuels?....some area's use hydro power at dams etc...I don't have an answer...but I surely know..people aren't going to give up their cars,no way no how..not in our lifetimes anyway,then think about business..how are goods going to be delivered?..horse and buggy isn't the answer anymore....when we look at the overall picture of our civilization..how fixed we are in our everyday lives..on the car and truck.....maybe there isn't an answer at all.
Quoting 614. CaribBoy:



No, it's rather for the whole 2015 season :(
Things will pick up soon, it's still early.
You GW people are so funny.  You assume that I have an agenda (apparently anti-GW), when I have chosen to just talk about the weather.  But since you guys really want to give me your opinion, I would like feedback on the name for a climate debate blog. 
climaground.comclimatground.comc limateground.com
Climateunderground.net is taken, but not in use.  Also, I think it is too long.
Quoting 611. JustDucky251:

Please, can we be civil? Climate change will affect weather at some point, but since climate change does not happen overnight, today's weather is not impacted by future climate change. We all have varying views on the urgency of these issues, but let us all agree to disagree peacefully and without rancor?



EXACTLY
Quoting 538. Patrap:

# 532.

Sit down, you dint raise yer hand Mr.Irony.

I answered the question, try to keep up.

: )
What is your problem why are you mad at world?
Considering this is arguably the issue of our time and Jeff Masters posts on AGW and related issues 30%-40% of the time, surely this is a topic near and dear to him. This site is as much about AGW and related issues as it is following the tropics. It's always been unpopular with many, and when an event is happening such as an outbreak or a TS or hurricane it's quickly put on the backburner. So there is much respect in regards to that. Americans and the world are tuned out to AGW. No surprise many are here too. They're sick of hearing about it and sick of the back and forth. When our kids and grandchildren ask us why we didn't do more, many of us will struggle to answer the question.
Quoting 616. LargoFl:

I do notice some companies are making a go at all electric cars, I don't know if that will catch on or not,but its a start...then I start asking myself..how is electricity made?..fossil fuels?....some area's use hydro power at dams etc...I don't have an answer...but I surely know..people aren't going to give up their cars,no way no how..not in our lifetimes anyway,then think about business..how are goods going to be delivered?..horse and buggy isn't the answer anymore....when we look at the overall picture of our civilization..how fixed we are in our everyday lives..on the car and truck.....maybe there isn't an answer at all.


">
Flood Watches are up with more rain this afternoon, and very heavy rain tomorrow.
Quoting 615. Neapolitan:

I've never quite understood those who would waltz into this forum attached to Dr. Masters' blog and suggest/request/insist that he no longer write about what he likes to write about. To me, that's like being invited as a guest to a large cocktail party, entering the massive room where the party's happening and dozens of conversations are going on, climbing up on a table, shouting for everyone to be quiet, then insisting that everybody henceforth discuss only that which interests you--and also, while you're at it, commanding the band in the corner to play only songs from your personal songlist.

That, thankfully, is not how things work.

Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson write on a large variety of weather- and climate-related issues. I--and, obviously, hundreds of others--like it that way, and hope it never changes. After all, AGW is the single defining issue of our time, and is set to disrupt modern civilization in a way nothing has before. With that in mind, wouldn't talking about nothing but the impending El Nino, SAL outbreaks, and showing repeated radar loops of Florida's east coast seem a little, I dunno, boring?


Talking about Weather is boring to you?

Just for you Mr. Ice Cream a radar loop~
Big storm stationary over Melbourne. Probably get atleast 2" out of that storm.
Quoting 551. Drakoen:

This blog is a mess.........
We need a storm!
newsflash...from informed sources...starting in the year 2025, due to the increasing severity of global warming, it is so ordered that NO car or truck can be used,no cars or trucks using fossil fuels can be manufactured,this is a governmental decree.........................yeah THIS is coming...now think a moment folks.....HOW would this affect your daily lives?.........no food at the grocery store?..those trucks use fossil fuels..same goes for all the malls and stores that sell manufactured goods...no trucks to deliver them.........this is Global warming you folks are crying out for here...no need to even mention the weather.........oh they cant do it you say?.....hmmmmm
Quoting 483. AdamReith:

Just noticed this bit of hand waving:

Quoting 311. TBayEyes:
That technology is what brought on the trend in rising harmful emissions that may alter the climate. But we don't even know if that spike in emissions is to blame or just a long term cyclical coincidence.
Um, yes. Yes we do, actually. We know from straightforward physics that adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere must alter the planet's energy balance in a positive direction. In other words the Earth must warm up.


We have to broaden the scope of our research and not just focus on temperature as the only meaningful data source.

There needs to be more observations more studies that look for patterns outside of just weather phenomena to prove that humans are really breaking the earth.
What? Again, you reveal you have no idea what is going on in modern climate science. Amazingly, you appear not to know scientists are studying ocean circulations, the sun, the state of the cryosphere, the behavior of clouds and myriad other sources of data that inform our understanding of what is happening to the climate.




Hi Adam, do you have a PHD in climate science, if so all the best to you and I'm glad your educating the masses, but if not you have know right to criticize someone for what they believe in. If you are not a expert in this field, than try to educate him and not put him down.
Quoting 603. barbamz:

There are so many bad and worrisome news in my part of the world today (and in western Europe a serious and probably long lasting heatwave should build up the next week to boot while the impacts of the last drought in many parts of Germany aren't fixed yet) - here at least some good news ;-)

Sweden's wine industry is maturing nicely - thanks to climate change
Milder summers mean Europe's most northerly winegrowers can challenge rival producers, but the Swedish alcohol laws are just one of many obstacles they face
The Guardian, David Crouch in Skane, Friday 26 June 2015 16.35 BST

41/C in Seville today and set to rise to 44/C over the weekend.
Not much humidity but intense sunshine and no clouds about over the whole country today.

Bad news from our Southern neighbours today as 37 people at least were killed in a gunmen's attach near Tunis today in a Spanish owned hotel. British, Belgium's and Irish I hear about so far.
Added to this are other incidents in France and Kuwait, pus the horn of Africa.

Its not just the climate which is crazy, humans are also going crazy all over the place.
Thoughts go out to their families.
Where's the easiest place to find that info (precip in the Sahel)?



Link
Quoting 610. washingtonian115:

Just waiting for the next big one in the Atlantic or the next meaningful weather event :).


I'll settle for the rain we will be getting this weekend.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE MOVING SLOWLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD IN MELBOURNE AND PALM BAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...SATELLITE BEACH...MALABAR AND INDIALANTIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015


.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...RATHER WARM ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE 15Z KXMR
SOUNDING SHOWING ONLY -6.7C AT 500 MB THUS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.93
INCHES. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PENINSULA. ESE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED WITH LIGHT S/SW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE L/M 70S.

WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS KEPT COVERAGE DOWN THUS FAR OVER THE
EASTERN PENINSULA...EVENTUAL SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
STACK UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL ALL BE IN PLAY AS MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE MID-LATE
EVENING WITH CLOUD DEBRIS THINNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE L/M 70S WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS.

SAT-MON...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME WHILE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM THE SPACE COAST SOUTHWARD
ON SAT BUT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO DO SO ON SUN WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN SO...DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT INLAND
ON SAT WILL BE SLOW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW SEEMS LIGHTER AGAIN ON MON
BUT THIS FEATURE MAY ONLY DEVELOP FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT INLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH
UP AROUND 2 INCHES THOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT WARM
AT 500 MB (-6C/-7C). WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY
RESULT IN DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE THE GFS MAY BE TOO
LOW OVER THE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA ON MON WHICH WOULD BRING SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION TO THE AREA.
CONTINUE SCATTERED WORDING FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD BUT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY OPT TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ON MON
. HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INTERIOR AND LOW 90S AT THE COAST.
Quoting 630. ricderr:

Where's the easiest place to find that info (precip in the Sahel)?



Link

Sweet. Thanks!
Quoting 545. tampabaymatt:

I challenge anyone on this blog to suggest one meaningful way we can do something about climate change. So far, the suggestions today have been to stop using fossil fuels and to elect politicians that will espouse the climate change battle. With regards to the first suggestion, I need electricity to live and gasoline to drive to work, amongst other places, so that’s not really feasible for anyone who wants to live some sort of meaningful life. With regards to the second suggestion, that sounds great and all, but in reality the political machine is a total cluster right now.

Me? I’m trying to do what I can. I am working with my neighbors on planting more trees in our community as part of our HOA fees, I’m keeping my AC higher than I used to, and I recently took a job that is only 5 miles from my home. Will any of this significantly impact anything? No. But, I would like to see this blog share more stories and ideas about what we can do instead of trying to prove that it’s happening to the same people every day.

Have a good rest of the day.



Maybe one day your electricity will be generated without using fossil fuels. Maybe one day your vehicle will be powered by something other than gasoline.
Quoting 615. Neapolitan:

I've never quite understood those who would waltz into this forum attached to Dr. Masters' blog and suggest/request/insist that he no longer write about what he likes to write about. To me, that's like being invited as a guest to a large cocktail party, entering the massive room where the party's happening and dozens of conversations are going on, climbing up on a table, shouting for everyone to be quiet, then insisting that everybody henceforth discuss only that which interests you--and also, while you're at it, commanding the band in the corner to play only songs from your personal songlist.

That, thankfully, is not how things work.

Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson write on a large variety of weather- and climate-related issues. I--and, obviously, hundreds of others--like it that way, and hope it never changes. After all, AGW is the single defining issue of our time, and is set to disrupt modern civilization in a way nothing has before. With that in mind, wouldn't talking about nothing but the impending El Nino, SAL outbreaks, and showing repeated radar loops of Florida's east coast seem a little, I dunno, boring?


I don't waltz. Maybe a little, salsa...but definitely not waltz. Now if you look down at the bottom is says "Member Since:july 9, 2005" and that is just when it became official. Now you.... oh 2009! Looks like you are the carpet bagger here.
Quoting 627. LargoFl:

newsflash


there not gonna do that

Quoting 631. Drakoen:



I'll settle for the rain we will be getting this weekend.
gonna be interesting to watch it all come together

gonna feel like a mid fall day where I am anyway
Quoting 627. LargoFl:

newsflash...from informed sources...starting in the year 2025, due to the increasing severity of global warming, it is so ordered that NO car or truck can be used,no cars or trucks using fossil fuels can be manufactured,this is a governmental decree.........................yeah THIS is coming...now think a moment folks.....HOW would this affect your daily lives?.........no food at the grocery store?..those trucks use fossil fuels..same goes for all the malls and stores that sell manufactured goods...no trucks to deliver them.........this is Global warming you folks are crying out for here...no need to even mention the weather.........oh they cant do it you say?.....hmmmmm


This is why we can't have nice things. Conspiracy nonsense.

Give me a break.

Quoting 612. LAbonbon:


Where's the easiest place to find that info (precip in the Sahel)?



Link
I find the dynamics of the blog today interesting and encouraging. Scott and Matt have managed to engage the "other side" without it devolving into a bloody mess, and I see some productive dialog between the two opposing camps. I am glad that the mods did not step in and do a "sweeping deletion" of the contentious comments. Valid skepticism and questions have been treated with respect by most of the anti-denialist group here today, and good conversations are emerging.

I have only been here 5 years - two as a lurker, and three as a commenter. I have always enjoyed reading both the staff blogs and the comments, especially about severe weather, both tropical and in the mid-latitudes.

This is a pretty "social" blog website. There are online friends, groups and cliques, and a lot of off-topic bantering between the regulars. However, even without the subject of AGW/CC being up front and in the staff bloggers postings, there has apparently been some non-AGW related trolling and blog disruption in the past, even leading to some permanent bans.

In recent years, now that Dr. Masters has apparently become much more concerned with AGW/CC. AGW/CC is intimately entwined with weather, so the subject is here to stay.

Those in deep denial can either accept that or look for another blog. However, I don't think they will find a good, science-based weather blog with open discussion forums and comment sections anywhere that will ignore or prohibit the discussion of AGW/CC.
Quoting 618. leofarnsworth:

You GW people are so funny.  You assume that I have an agenda (apparently anti-GW), when I have chosen to just talk about the weather.  But since you guys really want to give me your opinion, I would like feedback on the name for a climate debate blog. 
climaground.comclimatground.comc limateground.com
Climateunderground.net is taken, but not in use.  Also, I think it is too long.

How would we know what your position was on climate change if you only discussed weather? What exactly is a "climate debate blog"? Do you want to debate if there's such a thing as climate? That seems pretty silly. Do you want to debate human caused climate change? That's already well proven by science so there's not much debate there. Let me guess. You really want to debate why AGW is a hoax and we shouldn't believe a word of it. In that case, something like ILeftMyBrainAtTheDoor.com would work.
Quoting 618. leofarnsworth:

You GW people are so funny.  You assume that I have an agenda (apparently anti-GW), when I have chosen to just talk about the weather.  But since you guys really want to give me your opinion, I would like feedback on the name for a climate debate blog. 
climaground.comclimatground.comc limateground.com
Climateunderground.net is taken, but not in use.  Also, I think it is too long.



The simultaneous appearance on here of several posters who registered years ago, but have posted very seldom in that time, indicates that there is definitely a collective agenda to cause disruption.
Quoting 635. DCSwithunderscores:



Maybe one day your electricity will be generated without using fossil fuels. Maybe one day your vehicle will be powered by something other than gasoline.
garbage and human waste unlimited source
Quoting 636. leofarnsworth:



I don't waltz. Maybe a little, salsa...but definitely not waltz. Now if you look down at the bottom is says "Member Since:july 9, 2005" and that is just when it became official. Now you.... oh 2009! Looks like you are the carpet bagger here.


Ohh...a seniority argument from the guy with 78 posts.

It is Dr. Masters blog and I didn't write anything about him not writing about what he wanted to write about. I was addressing what the contributors were writing about, and commenting on.
I've noticed that the Wunderground (and the Weather Channel/Yahoo app on my iPhone) local weather predictions have been much less accurate than usual over the last several days. E.g. yesterday's predicted temperature of 84 as today's high for Atascadero, CA is, so far low by 9 degrees, F, or 11%, and we haven't even reached the hottest part of the day. Even the apparently revised prediction shown in the "Almanac" window says today's high will be 90, while the current temperature at the station I use (Atascadero Lake) shows 93. Yet, we seem to be in a fairly stable atmospheric situation with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge once again plopped off the So. California coast.

What's up with this?
newsflash...from informed sources...starting in the year 2025, due to the increasing severity of global warming, it is so ordered that NO car or truck can be used,no cars or trucks using fossil fuels can be manufactured,this is a governmental decree.........................yeah THIS is coming...now think a moment folks.....HOW would this affect your daily lives?.........no food at the grocery store?..those trucks use fossil fuels..same goes for all the malls and stores that sell manufactured goods...no trucks to deliver them.........this is Global warming you folks are crying out for here...no need to even mention the weather.........oh they cant do it you say?.....hmmmmm

hold on before there's a collective bashing of our dear friend...conspiracy theorist...closet agw sun spot believer...and ostrich head in the sand imitator largo.....

at some point....i so look forward to this being adopted by our government.....i don't see it in 2025...but i hope to see it in my lifetime......and it would not have been the first...

i remember back in the 70's when we heard the same nashing of teeth due to federal car mileage rules......remember the aerosol ban of 78......what about policy changes concerning forestry...oh...i forgot...unleaded gas........

throughout our lives we've heard how the world as we know it would be destroyed due to change that most know will positively influence our lives...and our planet...it's just another way to reinforce inaction.....

im sorry if I sound angry and disruptive and after this post i'll stop..but this drum beating for global warming must stop..you have no idea what the government is capable of in terms of regulations and laws...anyone of you older folks remember the al capone days?...the govt said..by Law..booze was declared illegal.....just think...what laws and decree's are coming down the pike with this global warming stuff.....lets get back to talking weather..and stop the global warming drumbeat stuff before its too late.
Quoting 642. sar2401:

How would we know what your position was on climate change if you only discussed weather? What exactly is a "climate debate blog"? Do you want to debate if there's such a thing as climate? That seems pretty silly. Do you want to debate human caused climate change? That's already well proven by science so there's not much debate there. Let me guess. You really want to debate why AGW is a hoax and we shouldn't believe a word of it. In that case, something like ILeftMyBrainAtTheDoor.com would work.


Do you ever make comments about the weather?
Quoting 602. WeatherConvoy:

To Storm tracker Scott - check messages I just sent one. Lets do lunch soon talk climate, weather etc


Got it!
Quoting 648. ricderr:

newsflash...from informed sources...starting in the year 2025, due to the increasing severity of global warming, it is so ordered that NO car or truck can be used,no cars or trucks using fossil fuels can be manufactured,this is a governmental decree.........................yeah THIS is coming...now think a moment folks.....HOW would this affect your daily lives?.........no food at the grocery store?..those trucks use fossil fuels..same goes for all the malls and stores that sell manufactured goods...no trucks to deliver them.........this is Global warming you folks are crying out for here...no need to even mention the weather.........oh they cant do it you say?.....hmmmmm

hold on before there's a collective bashing of our dear friend...conspiracy theorist...closet agw sun spot believer...and ostrich head in the sand imitator largo.....

at some point....i so look forward to this being adopted by our government.....i don't see it in 2025...but i hope to see it in my lifetime......and it would not have been the first...

i remember back in the 70's when we heard the same nashing of teeth due to federal car mileage rules......remember the aerosol ban of 78......what about policy changes concerning forestry...oh...i forgot...unleaded gas........

throughout our lives we've heard how the world as we know it would be destroyed due to change that most know will positively influence our lives...and our planet...it's just another way to reinforce inaction.....




You know, when the reptilian overlord reveal themselves in 2024 and force us all into internment camps, it will make the car and truck ban of 2025 look like child's play.
I think it's time the piano realized it didn't write the concerto.
Quoting 629. PlazaRed:


41/C in Seville today and set to rise to 44/C over the weekend.
Not much humidity but intense sunshine and no clouds about over the whole country today.

Bad news from our Southern neighbours today as 37 people at least were killed in a gunmen's attach near Tunis today in a Spanish owned hotel. British, Belgium's and Irish I hear about so far.
Added to this are other incidents in France and Kuwait, pus the horn of Africa.

Its not just the climate which is crazy, humans are also going crazy all over the place.
Thoughts go out to their families.
It's too bad when one person or a group of persons decide to solve problems by killing other people. Unfortunately, we've been doing it for a long time, and we'll probably continue doing it for a long time to come.

How is the Queen's visit going? I've read that the Germans seem to be quite taken with her. I guess this is going to be the last overseas trip for the Queen, so it's historic for sure. Considering all the things wrong with the human condition, when you consider that 70 years ago, the British and Germans were spending all their time and money trying to kill one another more efficiently, we have made some progress. :-)
xx/xx/xx
Quoting 618. leofarnsworth:

You GW people are so funny.  You assume that I have an agenda (apparently anti-GW), when I have chosen to just talk about the weather.  But since you guys really want to give me your opinion, I would like feedback on the name for a climate debate blog. 
climaground.comclimatground.comc limateground.com
Climateunderground.net is taken, but not in use.  Also, I think it is too long.
GW People? Are you talking about Dr. Masters? Because he blogs a lot about AGW/CC.

How about we call the climate blog "Dr.Rood's Climate Blog"??

Oh wait. It already exists - right here at the Wunderground website! It is even linked at the top right-hand side of this very page where I am writing this comment. I'll have to go over there and check it out some day!

Who wudda thunk?
Quoting 649. LargoFl:

im sorry if I sound angry and disruptive and after this post i'll stop..but this drum beating for global warming must stop..you have no idea what the government is capable of in terms of regulations and laws...anyone of you older folks remember the al capone days?...the govt said..by Law..booze was declared illegal.....just think...what laws and decree's are coming down the pike with this global warming stuff.....lets get back to talking weather..and stop the global warming drumbeat stuff before its too late.


Who knows Largo, instead of drumming up science and having discussion about real things like global warming, we should drum up fear of conspiracy and fascism. Because prohibition. That's the ticket.
658. SLU
Quoting 601. leofarnsworth:


Moderator, please pass this on to Dr. Masters. The GW stuff is really bothersome for me and probably others.  It does not matter where you come down on this matter; debating it is not what this forum was/should be about. While climate effects the weather over time, I don't think climate issues/theories/realities are short to intermediate weather matters. Last time I looked the site was called the WEATHER Underground, not the CLIMATE Underground.  Can we (Dr. Masters):
- Start another blog where the GW, for and against, crowd can do their stuff without annoying the rest of us? Dr. Masters and other Scientists could debate the matter, blog about it, and maybe sell the website to TWC  in the future. No sarcasm meant.
- Can Dr. Masters encourage people to stay on point of weather and leave the GW stuff for other sites?
- Develop an automated way to block GW oriented posts
- Or can Dr. Masters can make clear that the intent of this blog is to debate GW, and I will go find another blog that deals with current weather, future weather, and tropical activity...
Finally, I want to thank the mods who help make this blog happen.  And thank all the contributors who talk about the weather, you keep me ahead of the crowd on what is going to happen. 





I agree with you there bro. This is a weather blog but increasing over the last year or so there's been a significant increase in the number of posts from the climate change bandwagonist versus genuine posts about the actual weather-related conditions and its effects like it used to be back in the good old days. Given this year will be quiet weather-wise since the hurricane season will be inactive, they might as well rename this blog "climate underground" like you said so that the genuine weather enthusiasts can look elsewhere for their hourly fix without having to wade through a tons of climate change posts to access the real weather content like this:





we need a new blog
Quoting 649. LargoFl:

im sorry if I sound angry and disruptive and after this post i'll stop..but this drum beating for global warming must stop..you have no idea what the government is capable of in terms of regulations and laws...anyone of you older folks remember the al capone days?...the govt said..by Law..booze was declared illegal.....just think...what laws and decree's are coming down the pike with this global warming stuff.....lets get back to talking weather..and stop the global warming drumbeat stuff before its too late.


You are so right. Seems like we have a few people here who would applaud the opening of "re-education camps" for people who refuse to agree with them. Ah, to be so sure of yourself.
You know, when the reptilian overlord reveal themselves in 2024 and force us all into internment camps, it will make the car and truck ban of 2025 look like child's play.


shhhhhhhh....he's right behind me.......

(in my best captain kirk voice).....we've.....got.....to stop.......him......



Quoting 497. gunhilda:



And if it turns out, in ten or so years, that the planet just continues to heat up? What then? Will you say, "Oops! Too bad we lost ten years to mitigate a disaster that is wreaking havoc upon the entire planet?"

In ten or so years, what do you think your conscience will be telling you if it turns out the overwhelming majority of climate scientists were right and we needed to take action now? Will it matter to you that the Maldives are going under water? Will you care that countless species are going extinct? Will you mind that drought is causing starvation, and heat waves are killing people across the globe, and floods are washing away the homes of your neighbors? I wonder.

This isn't a disaster that any of us will avoid because it will affect us all in ways great and small, and our children even more. Time does not work in our favor if the science is correct and we sit on the fence and wait.

What a gamble, those ten or so years.
Hi Gun, what if the science is incorrect, what then? There will always be floods, droughts, and hurricanes, where people will be injured and die, this has been going on for as long as man has been around. It's just there are a lot more people on the planet to be affected, this is the real problem. In ten years if everything starts to reverse and the temps return to a more normal pattern like the 60s, 70s and before, then what? Think of all the money spent on something that is a natural cycle and we have no control over. What will it do to a lot of the worlds leading economies if we spend trillions upon trillions of dollars on something that we have no control over. I would rather spend the money on cleaning up, air and water pollution and stop the overpopulation of the Earth. If I am wrong then we will have plenty of time to correct the problem as life on Earth will not end for a long time due to the rate the temps are rising. Take a look at the NCEP temp charts.
Quoting 650. leofarnsworth:



Do you ever make comments about the weather?
No, never. Does this place have something to do with weather?

You asked for an opinion and I gave you mine. If you're going to get all butthurt about it maybe you should get back to your weather posts.
Quoting 660. leofarnsworth:



You are so right. Seems like we have a few people here who would applaud the opening of "re-education camps" for people who refuse to agree with them. Ah, to be so sure of yourself.


Yes we're all a bunch of fascists. You hit the nail on the head.

I literally cannot roll my eyes any harder.
Quoting 532. StormTrackerScott:



Your post of attacking people needs to stop as all Matt did was ask a question. This is a forum to share opinions & questions not attack someone who you don't agree with.


Just to clarify, the post you quoted Scott, reproduced here below, is not an attack on Matt.

Quoting 526. Patrap:

Ignorance is not a badge of Honor.

It's just ignorance.

: )


Being called ignorant isn't an attack. It's a statement. Ignorance is fine. Most people, nay, all people, are ignorant. Every single person on this blog here is ignorant of something. And that's O.K.

From dictionary.com:

Ignorant: lacking knowledge or information as to a particular subject or fact. Source

Matt asked a question, that by itself is showing ignorance. However, Matt seeks to fix his problem. And that's what sets him apart from a lot of people. While Matt seeks to resolve his problem, a lot of people like to come on here and refuse to fix their ignorance, while calling it "a personal attack". This is why we have such circuitous blog discussions on AGW that seem everlasting and with no tangible results.
Quoting 627. LargoFl:

newsflash...from informed sources...starting in the year 2025, due to the increasing severity of global warming, it is so ordered that NO car or truck can be used,no cars or trucks using fossil fuels can be manufactured,this is a governmental decree.........................yeah THIS is coming...now think a moment folks.....HOW would this affect your daily lives?.........no food at the grocery store?..those trucks use fossil fuels..same goes for all the malls and stores that sell manufactured goods...no trucks to deliver them.........this is Global warming you folks are crying out for here...no need to even mention the weather.........oh they cant do it you say?.....hmmmmm


There is probably more than one blogger on here that owns 1 or 2 shares of oil company stocks. If they did not buy them directly, they were probably bought by their 401's or some type of pension plans. Ask if they have divested?

Ask if they know how much profit an oil company makes on a gallon of gas as compared to the taxes currently being levied by the federal and state governments (see below).

The excise taxes on retail gasoline and diesel fuel, in cents per gallon, as of July 1, 2014:

Gasoline Diesel
Federal 18.40 24.40
Average All States 24.12 24.90

Learn more:

State-by-state fuel taxes

Last updated: January 20, 2015

As long as the federal and state governments are deriving this much income from fuel nothing is going to change. Forget how much or how little a politician might receive as campaign contributions, this is all legal.

I live in Silver Spring, MD and we are going to get drenched this weekend. Flash flood warnings for Montgomery County were issued bright and early this morning.
Quoting 660. leofarnsworth:



You are so right. Seems like we have a few people here who would applaud the opening of "re-education camps" for people who refuse to agree with them. Ah, to be so sure of yourself.


Don't you just hate it when you hit the " plus" button by mistake?
The Blog is a little tense, so watch this vortex and relax:




It is a spillway from Denison Dam, Lake Texoma after the recent rains there. It is fluid dynamics in action.
Quoting 644. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

garbage and human waste unlimited source

a least part of mine is generated by wood chips in Grayling
People to refresh your memory ..

Admin Notice:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.


Time to get back to the subject of the blog and weather and not comments about each other !!!
If everyone lived in an ‘ecovillage’, the Earth would still be in trouble


There’s only one of them. blueforce4116/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

We are used to hearing that if everyone lived in the same way as North Americans or Australians, we would need four or five planet Earth to sustain us.

This sort of analysis is known as the “ecological footprint” and shows that even the so-called “green” western European nations, with their more progressive approaches to renewable energy, energy efficiency and public transport, would require more than three planets.

How can we live within the means of our planet? When we delve seriously into this question it becomes clear that almost all environmental literature grossly underestimates what is needed for our civilisation to become sustainable.

Only the brave should read on.

Read more >>
Quoting 658. SLU:



I agree with you there bro. This is a weather blog but increasing over the last year or so there's been a significant increase in the number of posts from the climate change bandwagonist versus genuine posts about the actual weather-related conditions and its effects like it used to be back in the good old days. Given this year will be quiet weather-wise since the hurricane season will be inactive, they might as well rename this blog "climate underground" like you said so that the genuine weather enthusiasts can look elsewhere for their hourly fix without having to wade through a tons of climate change posts to access the real weather content like this:








I love the weather. I like to read the opinions/ alerts about the weather from all those who contribute about the weather. I am not about to let some people who want to debate GW, and demonize others ruin the blog for the rest of us. It is time someone spoke and I have. I too do not want to have " to wade through a tons of climate change posts" to read about the thunderstorm that will impact my business on any given afternoon in Central Florida.
It looks like more rain next week.
Quoting 649. LargoFl:

im sorry if I sound angry and disruptive and after this post i'll stop..but this drum beating for global warming must stop..you have no idea what the government is capable of in terms of regulations and laws...anyone of you older folks remember the al capone days?...the govt said..by Law..booze was declared illegal.....just think...what laws and decree's are coming down the pike with this global warming stuff.....lets get back to talking weather..and stop the global warming drumbeat stuff before its too late.


MEDIC....
Quoting 631. Drakoen:



I'll settle for the rain we will be getting this weekend.
The dynamics are coming in play for some nasty storms to develop.
679. N3EG
Quoting 659. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we need a new blog

I agree. Climate change debate has more than worn out its welcome on a tropical/severe weather blog.
We have enough fun doomcasting / wishcasting / blobwatching without all that other stuff.
Quoting 678. washingtonian115:

The dynamics are coming in play for some nasty storms to develop.
Possibly with damaging winds and hail.
Quoting 647. Vatergeck:

I've noticed that the Wunderground (and the Weather Channel/Yahoo app on my iPhone) local weather predictions have been much less accurate than usual over the last several days. E.g. yesterday's predicted temperature of 84 as today's high for Atascadero, CA is, so far low by 9 degrees, F, or 11%, and we haven't even reached the hottest part of the day. Even the apparently revised prediction shown in the "Almanac" window says today's high will be 90, while the current temperature at the station I use (Atascadero Lake) shows 93. Yet, we seem to be in a fairly stable atmospheric situation with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge once again plopped off the So. California coast.

What's up with this?
What does the actual NWS forecast show for your area? You can get some pretty inaccurate temperatures, wind, and precipitation if your page is set for a PWS instead of an official NWS site. I don't think that WU creates their own forecasts. They use the NWS forecasts. If your nearest official station is not close, you can get forecasts that don't make much sense for where you live. My nearest official station 50 miles away. The temperature forecast often has nothing to do with what's happening here.
Quoting 606. pipelines:

Instead of going through all that trouble, I have a far easier solution. How about you stop reading the blog posts about climate change? That way everyone is happy. Climate change is an important topic, probably the most important topic of our time, you can choose to stick your head in the sand and ignore it if you like. The information that Dr. Masters is putting out is great information that needs to be heard.


Isn't Dr. Roods site, the bog where we discuss climate change?
Weatherbell




Reversal day in Fl. Showers moving away from west coast today. Even some pop up tstorms forming in gulf.. another signal.



Quoting 674. leofarnsworth:



I love the weather. I like to read the opinions/ alerts about the weather from all those who contribute about the weather. I am not about to let some people who want to debate GW, and demonize others ruin the blog for the rest of us. It is time someone spoke and I have. I too do not want to have " to wade through a tons of climate change posts" to read about the thunderstorm that will impact my business on any given afternoon in Central Florida.
There's an easy solution. Every time you see an AGW post of any kind, put that person on ignore. You'll never have to see that kind of stuff again. You won't see many posts either, but there's a downside to anything.
Edited to comply with mod's request.
Quoting 688. ILwthrfan:



Here you go bro, perfect place for you...


Didn't work...
Quoting 692. sar2401:

Didn't work...


I broke it. I think I may have broke the blog as well. I'm pretty good at deconstructing things....

Quoting 684. NativeSun:

Isn't Dr. Roods site, the bog where we discuss climate change?
It's only a bog when certain banned (or should-be-banned) people stop by to disrupt the proceedings. Otherwise it's a great, open forum where ideas of profound merit are discussed with great intellectual honesty by people who want to both learn new knowledge and share that which they already possess...
Quoting 659. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We need a new blog...
I'm hoping that Dr.Masters and or Bob Henson will step in someday and clarify the situation with respect to subject matter and topics, but since they both mention AGW/CC with respect to weather so often, I cannot imagine that they would try to separate the two completely.



Quoting 684. NativeSun:

Isn't Dr. Roods site, the bog where we discuss climate change?
It's one of the places here that discusses climate change. I understand there have even been occasional posts about the weather there as well. If this blog really annoys you, why do you keep reading it? There are a lot of things that annoy me here. Bad spelling, not using proper case, ellipses as punctuation, heavy breathing, arm flapping...lots. Except in the occasional weak moment, I don't tell everyone that annoys me they have to stop because, well, they annoy me. Hardly anyone here cares what annoys me. You might want to think about that concept.
Quoting 681. Climate175:

Possibly with damaging winds and hail.

With strong upper-level dynamics comes wind shear (increase in wind speed with height); where the shear coincides with the warm sector delineates the greatest likelihood of severe storms. CWG’s Ian Livingston notes that this type of upper-air pattern is conducive to severe weather in the Mid Atlantic. Additionally, low-level turning of winds in the vicinity of the warm front will enhance directional wind shear. This favors development of rotating storm cells (both supercells and bow echoes).

Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 10:32 AM CDT on June 26, 2015


... Flash Flood Watch in effect until 10 PM CDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Illinois and
west central Illinois... including the following areas... in
central Illinois... McLean... Peoria... Tazewell and Woodford. In
west central Illinois... Fulton.

* Until 10 PM CDT this evening

* very heavy rainfall is expected over a portion of central
Illinois today and into mid evening. 1 to 1.5 inches of rain
could occur across the watch area... however higher amounts of
1.5 to 3 inches will be possible in a short amount of time in
the stronger storms.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.


Seems like the blog took a much needed time out!
Quoting 696. Xulonn:

I'm hoping that Dr.Masters and or Bob Henson will step in someday and clarify the situation with respect to subject matter and topics, but since they both mention AGW/CC with respect to weather so often, I cannot imagine that they would try to separate the two completely.




Bob Henson made a post in the blog early on yesterday that spoke to that very thing. Unfortunately, we don't have a decent search function here but, if you look at the first couple of pages, you'll see it.
Overdue.
Quoting 640. nrtiwlnvragn:




Link

Thanks! I really need to dig around the CPC site more.

I tried the precip tabs for May-Sept 2014 for West Africa, but got '404' for all of them. (under 'ARC 2.0 Satellite Rainfall Estimates: Regional Seasonal Totals and Anomalies', the 'Seasonal Archive' tab). I checked East Africa/2014 for comparison, and the data's there. I also checked 2013 - also there. Any ideas why it wouldn't be there?

Not a pressing issue, it's more out of an interest in regards to ricderr's earlier post (low precip/SAL connection).
Quoting 576. Patrap:

My 2000 Softail Deuce is Carburated and not EFI, so there's dat.

: )
Time to look for an '08 w/ less miles, EFI, and maybe even ann'y colors?

Lost the 4' + diameter red oak by my house in the Sat night windburst, fortunately from the NW, so the half that broke fell away from the house (& the boat parked near it). Had told the wife it needed to go, but... many confused birds & squirrels, esp now the other half is down. At least 85 rings, tried counting on overcast evening, so probably missed a couple. Looking forward to cool down for continuing clean up, 1st two days were horrible.

We in S C IL are well above normal moisture for month and year - were getting rain/snow that ILwthr didn't early. Heard this morning StL for June was at 11" before today's rain & avg in 3.6" range. Post-D had a photo montage of "Rem. '93", not there by any means, but entirely possible if keeps raining. Worst levee breeches didn't occur until July/Aug.

Have used CFLs & now LEDs a little, set backs - put them in plant at work as well - amazing what did to heat bill, recycle, pay a little more for more efficient appliances, etc. Every little bit each of us can do helps in some way. (Solar & geothermal are next) No excuse for throwing hands in air & saying I can't make a difference, so why do anything.
Quoting 689. Abacosurf:

Reversal day in Fl. Showers moving away from west coast today. Even some pop up tstorms forming in gulf.. another signal.
There are thunderstorms literally surrounding me now. I'm getting outflow winds, thunder...and that's it. Every one has slid right past me without a drop of rain. There are even areal flood advisories out north of me. Tremendously unstable atmosphere though, so some storm should eventually get me. It should get interesting tomorrow as the front approaches. Might even have the chance for a severe storm or two. It will almost be a springtime pattern, which is when we get severe storms. Your fun comes Sunday and Monday. The front is going to stall right in mid-Gulf. There will be an upper level low form at the tail, and that will create lots of storms in the Gulf that will get to Florida. Might be quite rainy before it's done.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 654. sar2401:


How is the Queen's visit going? I've read that the Germans seem to be quite taken with her. I guess this is going to be the last overseas trip for the Queen, so it's historic for sure. Considering all the things wrong with the human condition, when you consider that 70 years ago, the British and Germans were spending all their time and money trying to kill one another more efficiently, we have made some progress. :-)

Today she already has left us, Sar. And yes, Germans were thrilled by her and she was in a very good shape. Some videos on my blog (ah, for once nice political news). And here two photo galleries:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
http://www.vip.de

And to stay on blog's topic:
California wildfire rages as firefighters scramble for water amid record drought.
The Guardian, Peter Moskowitz, Friday 26 June 2015 15.19 BST
.
Quoting 682. sar2401:

What does the actual NWS forecast show for your area? You can get some pretty inaccurate temperatures, wind, and precipitation if your page is set for a PWS instead of an official NWS site. I don't think that WU creates their own forecasts. They use the NWS forecasts. If your nearest official station is not close, you can get forecasts that don't make much sense for where you live. My nearest official station 50 miles away. The temperature forecast often has nothing to do with what's happening here.


I was reading today about atmospheric boundary layer dynamics and what I could understand from this field of meteorology, there is a possibility for these errors in temperature, wind and precipitation because of the intricate relationship between surface and the lower layers of the atmosphere. The modeling of these dynamics is pretty hard, the math is totally overwhelming me by the way, but forecast errors in the boundary layer are to be expected. These dynamics can change very fast and can be turbulent on a micro level, depending on geomorphological features. Lakes, mountain ranges (even small ones) etc. interact with lower levels of the atmosphere that can't be modeled with good precision. It isn't the 500 hPh level, which is easier to model, the rub is, we live in the boundary layer.
Quoting 703. LAbonbon:


Thanks! I really need to dig around the CPC site more.

I tried the precip tabs for May-Sept 2014 for West Africa, but got '404' for all of them. (under 'ARC 2.0 Satellite Rainfall Estimates: Regional Seasonal Totals and Anomalies', the 'Seasonal Archive' tab). I checked East Africa/2014 for comparison, and the data's there. I also checked 2013 - also there. Any ideas why it wouldn't be there?

Not a pressing issue, it's more out of an interest in regards to ricderr's earlier post (low precip/SAL connection).


Don't know why it does not work for 2014, works for years prior. Just started looking into that website myself.
Quoting 670. whitewabit:
...Time to get back to the subject of the blog and weather and not comments about each other !!!


Following the advice in your reminder, Wabit, I deleted a comment directed at an angry "old-timer" who was attacking those who post about AGW/CC.

However, just as with scientific papers, AGW/CC does not have to be specifically mentioned to make it relevant. The current blog post by Bob Henson talks about extreme heat and fire danger. Both he and Dr. Masters have previously said these are influenced by (not "caused" by) AGW/CC, so it would seem that global warming and climate change are valid discussion subjects in this set of comments.
Quoting 709. ChrisHamburg:



I was reading today about atmospheric boundary layer dynamics and what I could understand from this field of meteorology, there is a possibility for these errors in temperature, wind and precipitation because of the intricate relationship between surface and the lower layers of the atmosphere. The modeling of these dynamics is pretty hard, the math is totally overwhelming me by the way, but forecast errors in the boundary layer are to be expected. These dynamics can change very fast and can be turbulent on a micro level, depending on geomorphological features. Lakes, mountain ranges (even small ones) etc. interact with lower levels of the atmosphere that can't be modeled with good precision. It isn't the 500 hPh level, which is easier to model, the rub is, we live in the boundary layer.

Chris, a little 'light' reading? Got to give you credit for trying, though :)
New blog up !!!
Quoting 506. Neapolitan:

Afraid not. That would require a deluge of Noachian proportions...
Yep....I stated that the Sun radiates heat and warms the Earth. Someone countered my statement with " not at night " . I knew right away it was goin to be a bumpy ride and reached for my Zig Zag's
Quoting 628. NativeSun:

Hi Adam, do you have a PHD in climate science, if so all the best to you and I'm glad your educating the masses, but if not you have know right to criticize someone for what they believe in. If you are not a expert in this field, than try to educate him and not put him down.

Only cowardly politicians use the "I am not a scientist" cop-out to excuse their failures to educate themselves on the most important issue facing civilization. A PhD is not required to achieve a broad understanding of the subject. Perhaps you have discovered this yourself?

Since when does one need a PhD in climate science to know about basic physics discovered in the 19th and 20th centuries? Since when does one need a PhD in climate science to see that someone--in this case Mr. TBayEyes-- is bloviating about it without having actually read any of it?

TBayEyes is certainly not inhibited in the least by his own almost virginal ignorance of the subject. He has, in fact, made broad accusations of professional misconduct against every scientist and scientific institution connected to the field of climate science. If you want to question someone's qualifications to speak on the subject, start with him.
Quoting 648. ricderr:

newsflash...from informed sources...starting in the year 2025, due to the increasing severity of global warming, it is so ordered that NO car or truck can be used,no cars or trucks using fossil fuels can be manufactured,this is a governmental decree.........................


With respect, ricderr, if you and Mr. Largo expect the richest multinational corporations in the world to permit their pet politicians to stop them from getting even richer from selling fossil fuels, you have forgotten the golden rule:

"He who has the gold, makes the rules."